A nowcasting technique based on application of the particle filter blending algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuanzhao; Lan, Hongping; Chen, Xunlai; Zhang, Wenhai

2017-10-01

To improve the accuracy of nowcasting, a new extrapolation technique called particle filter blending was configured in this study and applied to experimental nowcasting. Radar echo extrapolation was performed by using the radar mosaic at an altitude of 2.5 km obtained from the radar images of 12 S-band radars in Guangdong Province, China. The first bilateral filter was applied in the quality control of the radar data; an optical flow method based on the Lucas-Kanade algorithm and the Harris corner detection algorithm were used to track radar echoes and retrieve the echo motion vectors; then, the motion vectors were blended with the particle filter blending algorithm to estimate the optimal motion vector of the true echo motions; finally, semi-Lagrangian extrapolation was used for radar echo extrapolation based on the obtained motion vector field. A comparative study of the extrapolated forecasts of four precipitation events in 2016 in Guangdong was conducted. The results indicate that the particle filter blending algorithm could realistically reproduce the spatial pattern, echo intensity, and echo location at 30- and 60-min forecast lead times. The forecasts agreed well with observations, and the results were of operational significance. Quantitative evaluation of the forecasts indicates that the particle filter blending algorithm performed better than the cross-correlation method and the optical flow method. Therefore, the particle filter blending method is proved to be superior to the traditional forecasting methods and it can be used to enhance the ability of nowcasting in operational weather forecasts.

Satellite Derived Volcanic Ash Product Inter-Comparison in Support to SCOPE-Nowcasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddans, Richard; Thomas, Gareth; Pavolonis, Mike; Bojinski, Stephan

2016-04-01

In support of aeronautical meteorological services, WMO organized a satellite-based volcanic ash retrieval algorithm inter-comparison activity, to improve the consistency of quantitative volcanic ash products from satellites, under the Sustained, Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPEe Nowcasting) initiative (http:/ jwww.wmo.int/pagesjprogjsatjscopee nowcasting_en.php). The aims of the intercomparison were as follows: 1. Select cases (Sarychev Peak 2009, Eyjafyallajökull 2010, Grimsvötn 2011, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle 2011, Kirishimayama 2011, Kelut 2014), and quantify the differences between satellite-derived volcanic ash cloud properties derived from different techniques and sensors; 2. Establish a basic validation protocol for satellite-derived volcanic ash cloud properties; 3. Document the strengths and weaknesses of different remote sensing approaches as a function of satellite sensor; 4. Standardize the units and quality flags associated with volcanic cloud geophysical parameters; 5. Provide recommendations to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) and other users on how to best to utilize quantitative satellite products in operations; 6. Create a "road map" for future volcanic ash related scientific developments and inter-comparison/validation activities that can also be applied to SO2 clouds and emergent volcanic clouds. Volcanic ash satellite remote sensing experts from operational and research organizations were encouraged to participate in the inter-comparison activity, to establish the plans for the inter-comparison and to submit data sets. RAL was contracted by EUMETSAT to perform a systematic inter-comparison of all submitted datasets and results were reported at the WMO International Volcanic Ash Inter-comparison Meeting to held on 29 June - 2 July 2015 in Madison, WI, USA (http:/ /cimss.ssec.wisc.edujmeetings/vol_ash14). 26 different data sets were submitted, from a range of passive imagers and spectrometers and these were inter-compared against each other and against validation data such as CALIPSO lidar, ground-based lidar and aircraft observations. Results of the comparison exercise will be presented together with the conclusions and recommendations arising from the activity.

Nowcasting recreational water quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boehm, Alexandria B.; Whitman, Richard L.; Nevers, Meredith; Hou, Deyi; Weisberg, Stephen B.

2007-01-01

Advances in molecular techniques may soon provide new opportunities to provide more timely information on whether recreational beaches are free from fecal contamination. However, an alternative approach is the use of predictive models. This chapter presents a summary of these developing efforts. First, we describe documented physical, chemical, and biological factors that have been demonstrated by researchers to affect bacterial concentrations at beaches and thus represent logical parameters for inclusion in a model. Then, we illustrate how various types of models can be applied to predict water quality at freshwater and marine beaches.

DEFENDER: Detecting and Forecasting Epidemics Using Novel Data-Analytics for Enhanced Response.

PubMed

Thapen, Nicholas; Simmie, Donal; Hankin, Chris; Gillard, Joseph

2016-01-01

In recent years social and news media have increasingly been used to explain patterns in disease activity and progression. Social media data, principally from the Twitter network, has been shown to correlate well with official disease case counts. This fact has been exploited to provide advance warning of outbreak detection, forecasting of disease levels and the ability to predict the likelihood of individuals developing symptoms. In this paper we introduce DEFENDER, a software system that integrates data from social and news media and incorporates algorithms for outbreak detection, situational awareness and forecasting. As part of this system we have developed a technique for creating a location network for any country or region based purely on Twitter data. We also present a disease nowcasting (forecasting the current but still unknown level) approach which leverages counts from multiple symptoms, which was found to improve the nowcasting accuracy by 37 percent over a model that used only previous case data. Finally we attempt to forecast future levels of symptom activity based on observed user movement on Twitter, finding a moderate gain of 5 percent over a time series forecasting model.

Assessment of realistic nowcasting lead-times based on predictability analysis of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

2014-05-01

Operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are provided routinely by weather services or hydrological authorities, particularly those responsible for densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean areas prone to flash-floods. Specific rainfall values are used as thresholds for issuing warning levels considering different time frameworks (mid-range, short-range, 24h, 1h, etc.), for example 100 mm in 24h or 60 mm in 1h. There is a clear need to determine how feasible is a specific rainfall value for a given lead-time, in particular for very short range forecasts or nowcasts typically obtained from weather radar observations (Pierce et al 2012). In this study we assess which specific nowcast lead-times can be provided for a number of heavy precipitation events (HPE) that affected Catalonia (NE Spain). The nowcasting system we employed generates QPFs through the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011).Then QPFs up to 3h are compared with two quality controlled observational data sets: weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and raingauge data. Several high-impact weather HPE were selected including the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) both producing, among other effects, local flash floods. In these two events there were torrential rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and 24h accumulation values above 100 mm. A number of verification scores are used to characterize the evolution of precipitation forecast quality with time, which typically presents a decreasing trend but showing an strong dependence on the selected rainfall threshold and integration period. For example considering correlation factors, 30' precipitation forecasts showed some skill (improvement over persistence) for lead times up to 60' for moderate intensities (up to 1 mm in 30') and up to 2.5h for lower rates (above 0.1 mm). However an important event-to-event variability has been found as illustrated by the fact that hit rates of rain-no-rain forecasts achieved the 60% value at 90' in the 7 September 2005 and only 40' in the 2 November 2008 case. The discussion of these results provides useful information on the potential application of nowcasting systems and realistic values to be contrasted with specific end-user requirements. This work has been done in the framework of the Hymex research programme and has been partly funded by the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M Gayà, J Arús, J Montanyà, O van der Velde, 2011: A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis. Atmospheric Research 100:621-637 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.024 Bech J, R Pascual, T Rigo, N Pineda, JM López, J Arús, and M Gayà, 2007: An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 7:129-139 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-129-2007 Berenguer M, C Corral, R Sa'nchez-Diezma, D Sempere-Torres, 2005: Hydrological validation of a radarbased nowcasting technique. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6: 532-549 http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM433.1 Berenguer M, D Sempere, G Pegram, 2011: SBMcast - An ensemble nowcasting technique to assess the uncertainty in rainfall forecasts by Lagrangian extrapolation. Journal of Hydrology 404: 226-240 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.033 Pierce C, A Seed, S Ballard, D Simonin, Z Li, 2012: Nowcasting. In Doppler Radar Observations (J Bech, JL Chau, ed.) Ch. 13, 98-142. InTech, Rijeka, Croatia http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/39054

DEFENDER: Detecting and Forecasting Epidemics Using Novel Data-Analytics for Enhanced Response

PubMed Central

Simmie, Donal; Hankin, Chris; Gillard, Joseph

2016-01-01

In recent years social and news media have increasingly been used to explain patterns in disease activity and progression. Social media data, principally from the Twitter network, has been shown to correlate well with official disease case counts. This fact has been exploited to provide advance warning of outbreak detection, forecasting of disease levels and the ability to predict the likelihood of individuals developing symptoms. In this paper we introduce DEFENDER, a software system that integrates data from social and news media and incorporates algorithms for outbreak detection, situational awareness and forecasting. As part of this system we have developed a technique for creating a location network for any country or region based purely on Twitter data. We also present a disease nowcasting (forecasting the current but still unknown level) approach which leverages counts from multiple symptoms, which was found to improve the nowcasting accuracy by 37 percent over a model that used only previous case data. Finally we attempt to forecast future levels of symptom activity based on observed user movement on Twitter, finding a moderate gain of 5 percent over a time series forecasting model. PMID:27192059

A random forest algorithm for nowcasting of intense precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Saurabh; Chakraborty, Rohit; Maitra, Animesh

2017-09-01

Automatic nowcasting of convective initiation and thunderstorms has potential applications in several sectors including aviation planning and disaster management. In this paper, random forest based machine learning algorithm is tested for nowcasting of convective rain with a ground based radiometer. Brightness temperatures measured at 14 frequencies (7 frequencies in 22-31 GHz band and 7 frequencies in 51-58 GHz bands) are utilized as the inputs of the model. The lower frequency band is associated to the water vapor absorption whereas the upper frequency band relates to the oxygen absorption and hence, provide information on the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere. Synthetic minority over-sampling technique is used to balance the data set and 10-fold cross validation is used to assess the performance of the model. Results indicate that random forest algorithm with fixed alarm generation time of 30 min and 60 min performs quite well (probability of detection of all types of weather condition ∼90%) with low false alarms. It is, however, also observed that reducing the alarm generation time improves the threat score significantly and also decreases false alarms. The proposed model is found to be very sensitive to the boundary layer instability as indicated by the variable importance measure. The study shows the suitability of a random forest algorithm for nowcasting application utilizing a large number of input parameters from diverse sources and can be utilized in other forecasting problems.

A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach for short-duration rainfall events: Development and testing over Beijing during the warm seasons of 2006-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-06-01

Nowcasting short-duration (i.e., <6 h) rainfall (SDR) events is examined using total [i.e., cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC)] lightning observations over the Beijing Metropolitan Region (BMR) during the warm seasons of 2006-2007. A total of 928 moderate and 554 intense SDR events, i.e., with the respective hourly rainfall rates (HRR) of 10-20 and ≥20 mm h-1, are utilized to estimate sharp-increasing rates in rainfall and lightning flash, termed as rainfall and lightning jumps, respectively. By optimizing the parameters in a lightning jump and a rainfall jump algorithm, their different jump intensity grades are verified for the above two categories of SDR events. Then, their corresponding graded nowcast-warning models are developed for the moderate and intense SDR events, respectively, with a low-grade warning for hitting more SDR events and a high-grade warning for reducing false alarms. Any issued warning in the nowcast-warning models is designed to last for 2 h after the occurrence of a lightning jump. It is demonstrated that the low-grade warnings can have the probability of detection (POD) of 67.8% (87.0%) and the high-grade warnings have the false alarms ratio (FAR) of 27.0% (22.2%) for the moderate (intense) SDR events, with an averaged lead time of 36.7 (52.0) min. The nowcast-warning models are further validated using three typical heavy-rain-producing storms that are independent from those used to develop the models. Results show that the nowcast-warning models can provide encouraging early warnings for the associated SDR events from the regional to meso-γ scales, indicating that they have a great potential in being applied to the other regions where high-resolution total lightning observations are available.

A framework for probabilistic pluvial flood nowcasting for urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ntegeka, Victor; Murla, Damian; Wang, Lipen; Foresti, Loris; Reyniers, Maarten; Delobbe, Laurent; Van Herk, Kristine; Van Ootegem, Luc; Willems, Patrick

2016-04-01

Pluvial flood nowcasting is gaining ground not least because of the advancements in rainfall forecasting schemes. Short-term forecasts and applications have benefited from the availability of such forecasts with high resolution in space (~1km) and time (~5min). In this regard, it is vital to evaluate the potential of nowcasting products for urban inundation applications. One of the most advanced Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) techniques is the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System, which was originally co-developed by the UK Met Office and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The scheme was further tuned to better estimate extreme and moderate events for the Belgian area (STEPS-BE). Against this backdrop, a probabilistic framework has been developed that consists of: (1) rainfall nowcasts; (2) sewer hydraulic model; (3) flood damage estimation; and (4) urban inundation risk mapping. STEPS-BE forecasts are provided at high resolution (1km/5min) with 20 ensemble members with a lead time of up to 2 hours using a 4 C-band radar composite as input. Forecasts' verification was performed over the cities of Leuven and Ghent and biases were found to be small. The hydraulic model consists of the 1D sewer network and an innovative 'nested' 2D surface model to model 2D urban surface inundations at high resolution. The surface components are categorized into three groups and each group is modelled using triangular meshes at different resolutions; these include streets (3.75 - 15 m2), high flood hazard areas (12.5 - 50 m2) and low flood hazard areas (75 - 300 m2). Functions describing urban flood damage and social consequences were empirically derived based on questionnaires to people in the region that were recently affected by sewer floods. Probabilistic urban flood risk maps were prepared based on spatial interpolation techniques of flood inundation. The method has been implemented and tested for the villages Oostakker and Sint-Amandsberg, which are part of the larger city of Gent, Belgium. After each of the different above-mentioned components were evaluated, they were combined and tested for recent historical flood events. The rainfall nowcasting, hydraulic sewer and 2D inundation modelling and socio-economical flood risk results each could be partly evaluated: the rainfall nowcasting results based on radar data and rain gauges; the hydraulic sewer model results based on water level and discharge data at pumping stations; the 2D inundation modelling results based on limited data on some recent flood locations and inundation depths; the results for the socio-economical flood consequences of the most extreme events based on claims in the database of the national disaster agency. Different methods for visualization of the probabilistic inundation results are proposed and tested.

Nowcasting system MeteoExpert at Irkutsk airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazlova, Tatiana; Bocharnikov, Nikolai; Solonin, Alexander

2016-04-01

Airport operations are significantly impacted by low visibility concerned with fog. Generation of accurate and timely nowcast products is a basis of early warning automated system providing information about significant weather conditions for decision-makers. Nowcasting system MeteoExpert has been developed that provides aviation forecasters with 0-6 hour nowcasts of the weather conditions including fog and low visibility. The system has been put into operation at the airport Irkutsk since August 2014. Aim is to increase an accuracy of fog forecasts, contributing to the airport safety, efficiency and capacity improvement. Designed for operational use numerical model of atmospheric boundary layer runs with a 10-minute update cycle. An important component of the system is the use of AWOS at the airdrome and three additional automatic weather stations at fogging sites in the vicinity of the airdrome. Nowcasts are visualized on a screen of forecaster's workstation and dedicated website. Nowcasts have been verified against actual observations.

Enhanced object-based tracking algorithm for convective rain storms and cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz, Carlos; Wang, Li-Pen; Willems, Patrick

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a new object-based storm tracking algorithm, based upon TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting). TITAN is a widely-used convective storm tracking algorithm but has limitations in handling small-scale yet high-intensity storm entities due to its single-threshold identification approach. It also has difficulties to effectively track fast-moving storms because of the employed matching approach that largely relies on the overlapping areas between successive storm entities. To address these deficiencies, a number of modifications are proposed and tested in this paper. These include a two-stage multi-threshold storm identification, a new formulation for characterizing storm's physical features, and an enhanced matching technique in synergy with an optical-flow storm field tracker, as well as, according to these modifications, a more complex merging and splitting scheme. High-resolution (5-min and 529-m) radar reflectivity data for 18 storm events over Belgium are used to calibrate and evaluate the algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with that of the original TITAN. The results suggest that the proposed algorithm can better isolate and match convective rainfall entities, as well as to provide more reliable and detailed motion estimates. Furthermore, the improvement is found to be more significant for higher rainfall intensities. The new algorithm has the potential to serve as a basis for further applications, such as storm nowcasting and long-term stochastic spatial and temporal rainfall generation.

Improving linear transport infrastructure efficiency by automated learning and optimised predictive maintenance techniques (INFRALERT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Redondo, Noemi; Calle-Cordón, Alvaro; Kandler, Ute; Simroth, Axel; Morales, Francisco J.; Reyes, Antonio; Odelius, Johan; Thaduri, Aditya; Morgado, Joao; Duarte, Emmanuele

2017-09-01

The on-going H2020 project INFRALERT aims to increase rail and road infrastructure capacity in the current framework of increased transportation demand by developing and deploying solutions to optimise maintenance interventions planning. It includes two real pilots for road and railways infrastructure. INFRALERT develops an ICT platform (the expert-based Infrastructure Management System, eIMS) which follows a modular approach including several expert-based toolkits. This paper presents the methodologies and preliminary results of the toolkits for i) nowcasting and forecasting of asset condition, ii) alert generation, iii) RAMS & LCC analysis and iv) decision support. The results of these toolkits in a meshed road network in Portugal under the jurisdiction of Infraestruturas de Portugal (IP) are presented showing the capabilities of the approaches.

Development of a satellite-based nowcasting system for surface solar radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limbach, Sebastian; Hungershoefer, Katja; Müller, Richard; Trentmann, Jörg; Asmus, Jörg; Schömer, Elmar; Groß, André

2014-05-01

The goal of the RadNowCast project was the development of a tool-chain for a satellite-based nowcasting of the all sky global and direct surface solar radiation. One important application of such short-term forecasts is the computation of the expected energy yield of photovoltaic systems. This information is of great importance for an efficient balancing of power generation and consumption in large, decentralized power grids. Our nowcasting approach is based on an optical-flow analysis of a series of Meteosat SEVIRI satellite images. For this, we extended and combined several existing software tools and set up a series of benchmarks for determining the optimal forecasting parameters. The first step in our processing-chain is the determination of the cloud albedo from the HRV (High Resolution Visible)-satellite images using a Heliosat-type method. The actual nowcasting is then performed by a commercial software system in two steps: First, vector fields characterizing the movement of the clouds are derived from the cloud albedo data from the previous 15 min to 2 hours. Next, these vector fields are combined with the most recent cloud albedo data in order to extrapolate the cloud albedo in the near future. In the last step of the processing, the Gnu-Magic software is used to calculate the global and direct solar radiation based on the forecasted cloud albedo data. For an evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of our nowcastig system, we analyzed four different benchmarks, each of which covered different weather conditions. We compared the forecasted data with radiation data derived from the real satellite images of the corresponding time steps. The impact of different parameters on the cloud albedo nowcasting and the surface radiation computation has been analysed. Additionally, we could show that our cloud-albedo-based forecasts outperform forecasts based on the original HRV images. Possible future extension are the incorporation of additional data sources, for example NWC-SAF high resolution wind fields, in order to improve the quality of the atmospheric motion fields, and experiments with custom, optimized software components for the optical-flow estimation and the nowcasting.

MERIT: A man/computer data management and enhancement system for upper air nowcasting/forecasting in the United States. [Minimum Energy Routes using Interactive Techniques (MERIT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, R.

1984-01-01

It is suggested that the very short range forecast problem for aviation is one of data management rather than model development and the possibility of improving the aviation forecast using current technology is underlined. The MERIT concept of modeling technology, and advanced man/computer interactive data management and enhancement techniques to provide a tailored, accurate and timely forecast for aviation is outlined. The MERIT includes utilization of the Langrangian approach, extensive use of the automated aircraft report to complement the present data base and provide the most current observations; and the concept that a 2 to 12 hour forecast provided every 3 hr can meet the domestic needs of aviation instead of the present 18 and 24 hr forecast provided every 12 hr.

Ship speeds and sea ice forecasts - how are they related?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loeptien, Ulrike; Axell, Lars

2014-05-01

The Baltic Sea is a shallow marginal sea, located in northern Europe. A seasonally occurring sea ice cover has the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic substantially. There are thus considerable efforts to fore- and nowcast ice conditions. Here we take a somewhat opposite approach and relate ship speeds, as observed via the Automatic Identification System (AIS) network, back to the prevailing sea ice conditions. We show that these information are useful to constrain fore- and nowcasts. More specifically we find, by fitting a statistical model (mixed effect model) for a test region in the Bothnian Bay, that the forecasted ice properties can explain 60-65% of the ship speed variations (based on 25 minute averages).

Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, Katharina; Panziera, Luca; Germann, Urs; Zappa, Massimiliano

2013-04-01

In our study we explore the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 hours between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic forcing.

Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, K.; Panziera, L.; Germann, U.; Zappa, M.

2013-01-01

This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

Validation of spatially resolved all sky imager derived DNI nowcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, Pascal; Wilbert, Stefan; Schüler, David; Prahl, Christoph; Haase, Thomas; Ramirez, Lourdes; Zarzalejo, Luis; Meyer, Angela; Vuilleumier, Laurent; Blanc, Philippe; Dubrana, Jean; Kazantzidis, Andreas; Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion; Hirsch, Tobias; Pitz-Paal, Robert

2017-06-01

Mainly due to clouds, Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) displays short-term local variabilities affecting the efficiency of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. To enable efficient plant operation, DNI nowcasts in high spatial and temporal resolutions for 15 to 30 minutes ahead are required. Ground-based All Sky Imagers (ASI) can be used to detect, track and predict 3D positions of clouds possibly shading the plant. The accuracy and reliability of these ASI-derived DNI nowcasts must be known to allow its application in solar power plants. Within the framework of the European project DNICast, an ASI-based nowcasting system was developed and implemented at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA). Its validation methodology and validation results are presented in this work. The nowcasting system outperforms persistence forecasts for volatile irradiance situations.

An Experimental Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Intra America Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, D. S.; Preller, R. H.; Martin, P. J.

2003-04-01

An experimental real-time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System has been developed for the Intra America Seas (IASNFS). The area of coverage includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The system produces nowcast and up to 72 hours forecast the sea level variation, 3D ocean current, temperature and salinity fields. IASNFS consists an 1/24 degree (~5 km), 41-level sigma-z data-assimilating ocean model based on NCOM. For daily nowcast/forecast the model is restarted from previous nowcast. Once model is restarted it continuously assimilates the synthetic temperature/salinity profiles generated by a data analysis model called MODAS to produce nowcast. Real-time data come from satellite altimeter (GFO, TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2) sea surface height anomaly and AVHRR sea surface temperature. Three hourly surface heat fluxes, including solar radiation, wind stresses and sea level air pressure from NOGAPS/FNMOC are applied for surface forcing. Forecasts are produced with available NOGAPS forecasts. Once the nowcast/forecast are produced they are distributed through the Internet via the updated web pages. The open boundary conditions including sea surface elevation, transport, temperature, salinity and currents are provided by the NRL 1/8 degree Global NCOM which is operated daily. An one way coupling scheme is used to ingest those boundary conditions into the IAS model. There are 41 rivers with monthly discharges included in the IASNFS.

Nowcasting Earthquakes: A Comparison of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma and at the Geysers, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Hawkins, Angela; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-01-01

Nowcasting is a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk (Rundle et al. 2016). In this paper, the method is applied to the induced seismicity at the Geysers geothermal region in California and the induced seismicity due to fluid injection in Oklahoma. Nowcasting utilizes the catalogs of seismicity in these regions. Two earthquake magnitudes are selected, one large say M_{λ } ≥ 4, and one small say M_{σ } ≥ 2. The method utilizes the number of small earthquakes that occurs between pairs of large earthquakes. The cumulative probability distribution of these values is obtained. The earthquake potential score (EPS) is defined by the number of small earthquakes that has occurred since the last large earthquake, the point where this number falls on the cumulative probability distribution of interevent counts defines the EPS. A major advantage of nowcasting is that it utilizes "natural time", earthquake counts, between events rather than clock time. Thus, it is not necessary to decluster aftershocks and the results are applicable if the level of induced seismicity varies in time. The application of natural time to the accumulation of the seismic hazard depends on the applicability of Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling. The increasing number of small earthquakes that occur after a large earthquake can be scaled to give the risk of a large earthquake occurring. To illustrate our approach, we utilize the number of M_{σ } ≥ 2.75 earthquakes in Oklahoma to nowcast the number of M_{λ } ≥ 4.0 earthquakes in Oklahoma. The applicability of the scaling is illustrated during the rapid build-up of injection-induced seismicity between 2012 and 2016, and the subsequent reduction in seismicity associated with a reduction in fluid injections. The same method is applied to the geothermal-induced seismicity at the Geysers, California, for comparison.

Implementation of the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) in Belgium and verification of case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foresti, Loris; Reyniers, Maarten; Delobbe, Laurent

2014-05-01

The Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) is a probabilistic precipitation nowcasting scheme developed at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in collaboration with the UK Met Office. In order to account for the multiscaling nature of rainfall structures, the radar field is decomposed into an 8 levels multiplicative cascade using a Fast Fourier Transform. The cascade is advected using the velocity field estimated with optical flow and evolves stochastically according to a hierarchy of auto-regressive processes. This allows reproducing the empirical observation that the rate of temporal evolution of the small scales is faster than the large scales. The uncertainty in radar rainfall measurement and the unknown future development of the velocity field are also considered by stochastic modelling in order to reflect their typical spatial and temporal variability. Recently, a 4 years national research program has been initiated by the University of Leuven, the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) of Belgium and 3 other partners: PLURISK ("forecasting and management of extreme rainfall induced risks in the urban environment"). The project deals with the nowcasting of rainfall and subsequent urban inundations, as well as socio-economic risk quantification, communication, warning and prevention. At the urban scale it is widely recognized that the uncertainty of hydrological and hydraulic models is largely driven by the input rainfall estimation and forecast uncertainty. In support to the PLURISK project the RMI aims at integrating STEPS in the current operational deterministic precipitation nowcasting system INCA-BE (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis). This contribution will illustrate examples of STEPS ensemble and probabilistic nowcasts for a few selected case studies of stratiform and convective rain in Belgium. The paper focuses on the development of STEPS products for potential hydrological users and a preliminary verification of the nowcasts, especially to analyze the spatial distribution of forecast errors. The analysis of nowcast biases reveals the locations where the convective initiation, rainfall growth and decay processes significantly reduce the forecast accuracy, but also points out the need for improving the radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation product that is used both to generate and verify the nowcasts. The collection of fields of verification statistics is implemented using an online update strategy, which potentially enables the system to learn from forecast errors as the archive of nowcasts grows. The study of the spatial or temporal distribution of nowcast errors is a key step to convey to the users an overall estimation of the nowcast accuracy and to drive future model developments.

Soundscapes

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

Soundscapes ...global oceanographic models to provide hindcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts of the time-evolving soundscape . In terms of the types of sound sources, we...other types of sources. APPROACH The research has two principle thrusts: 1) the modeling of the soundscape , and 2) verification using datasets that

Nowcasting Intraseasonal Recreational Fishing Harvest with Internet Search Volume

PubMed Central

Carter, David W.; Crosson, Scott; Liese, Christopher

2015-01-01

Estimates of recreational fishing harvest are often unavailable until after a fishing season has ended. This lag in information complicates efforts to stay within the quota. The simplest way to monitor quota within the season is to use harvest information from the previous year. This works well when fishery conditions are stable, but is inaccurate when fishery conditions are changing. We develop regression-based models to “nowcast” intraseasonal recreational fishing harvest in the presence of changing fishery conditions. Our basic model accounts for seasonality, changes in the fishing season, and important events in the fishery. Our extended model uses Google Trends data on the internet search volume relevant to the fishery of interest. We demonstrate the model with the Gulf of Mexico red snapper fishery where the recreational sector has exceeded the quota nearly every year since 2007. Our results confirm that data for the previous year works well to predict intraseasonal harvest for a year (2012) where fishery conditions are consistent with historic patterns. However, for a year (2013) of unprecedented harvest and management activity our regression model using search volume for the term “red snapper season” generates intraseasonal nowcasts that are 27% more accurate than the basic model without the internet search information and 29% more accurate than the prediction based on the previous year. Reliable nowcasts of intraseasonal harvest could make in-season (or in-year) management feasible and increase the likelihood of staying within quota. Our nowcasting approach using internet search volume might have the potential to improve quota management in other fisheries where conditions change year-to-year. PMID:26348645

Assimilation of the seabird and ship drift data in the north-eastern sea of Japan into an operational ocean nowcast/forecast system

PubMed Central

Miyazawa, Yasumasa; Guo, Xinyu; Varlamov, Sergey M.; Miyama, Toru; Yoda, Ken; Sato, Katsufumi; Kano, Toshiyuki; Sato, Keiji

2015-01-01

At the present time, ocean current is being operationally monitored mainly by combined use of numerical ocean nowcast/forecast models and satellite remote sensing data. Improvement in the accuracy of the ocean current nowcast/forecast requires additional measurements with higher spatial and temporal resolution as expected from the current observation network. Here we show feasibility of assimilating high-resolution seabird and ship drift data into an operational ocean forecast system. Data assimilation of geostrophic current contained in the observed drift leads to refinement in the gyre mode events of the Tsugaru warm current in the north-eastern sea of Japan represented by the model. Fitting the observed drift to the model depends on ability of the drift representing geostrophic current compared to that representing directly wind driven components. A preferable horizontal scale of 50 km indicated for the seabird drift data assimilation implies their capability of capturing eddies with smaller horizontal scale than the minimum scale of 100 km resolved by the satellite altimetry. The present study actually demonstrates that transdisciplinary approaches combining bio-/ship- logging and numerical modeling could be effective for enhancement in monitoring the ocean current. PMID:26633309

Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting: A Lagrangian Pixel-Based Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

Sorooshian, T. Bellerby, and G. Huffman, 2010: REFAME: Rain Estimation Using Forward-Adjusted Advection of Microwave Estimates. J. of Hydromet ., 11...precipitation forecasting using information from radar and Numerical Weather Prediction models. J. of Hydromet ., 4(6):1168-1180. Germann, U., and I

An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Based Nowcasting System: Software Description

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

14. ABSTRACT A Web service /Web interface software package has been engineered to address the need for an automated means to run the Weather Research...An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Based Nowcasting System: Software Description by Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and...Based Nowcasting System: Software Description Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and Robert E. Dumais Jr. Computational and Information Sciences

The 1/12 deg Global HYCOM Nowcast/Forecast System

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-13

DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 13-01-2010 REPORT TYPE Conference Proceeding 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The 1/12° Global HYCOM...advaneed global ocean nowcasting/forecasting system has been of long-time US Navy interest. Such a system will provide the capability to depict (nowcast...73-8677-A8-5 Classification X U Sponsor ONR approval obtained yes 4. AUTHOR Title of Paper or Presentation The MM degree Global

Radar Studies of Aviation Hazards

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-05-31

RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. PHILLIPS LABORATORY . Directorate of Geophysics AIR FORCE MATERIEL COMMAND HANSCOM AIR FORCE BASE, MA 01731-3010...techniques that will be candidates for inclusion in the NEXRAD algorithm inventory. Phenomena of particular interest to the Air Force are being...vast majurity of thunderstorms in central Colorado. Wilson and Mueller (1993) attempted 30-minute nowcasts of thunderstorms, based primarily on Doppler

Nowcasting and Forecasting Concentrations of Biological Contaminants at Beaches: A Feasibility and Case Study

EPA Science Inventory

Public concern over microbial contamination of recreational waters has increased in recent years. A common approach to evaluating beach water quality has been to use the persistence model which assumes that day-old monitoring results provide accurate estimates of current concentr...

An overview of San Francisco Bay PORTS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, Ralph T.; McKinnie, David; English, Chad; Smith, Richard E.

1998-01-01

The Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS) provides observations of tides, tidal currents, and meteorological conditions in real-time. The San Francisco Bay PORTS (SFPORTS) is a decision support system to facilitate safe and efficient maritime commerce. In addition to real-time observations, SFPORTS includes a nowcast numerical model forming a San Francisco Bay marine nowcast system. SFPORTS data and nowcast numerical model results are made available to users through the World Wide Web (WWW). A brief overview of SFPORTS is presented, from the data flow originated at instrument sensors to final results delivered to end users on the WWW. A user-friendly interface for SFPORTS has been designed and implemented. Appropriate field data analysis, nowcast procedures, design and generation of graphics for WWW display of field data and nowcast results are presented and discussed. Furthermore, SFPORTS is designed to support hazardous materials spill prevention and response, and to serve as resources to scientists studying the health of San Francisco Bay ecosystem. The success (or failure) of the SFPORTS to serve the intended user community is determined by the effectiveness of the user interface.

Chikungunya Virus

MedlinePlus

... Information For Health Care Providers Fact Sheets and Posters Chikungunya Nowcast for the Americas Get Email Updates ... Providers Nowcast for the Americas Fact Sheets and Posters Resources Vector Surveillance and Control File Formats Help: ...

MEETING IN MEXICO: NOWCASTING AND FORECASTING BEACH BACTERIA CONCENTRATION USING EPA'S VIRTUAL BEACH SOFTWARE

EPA Science Inventory

Beaches in the United States of (North) America are subject to closure when bacterial counts exceed water quality criteria. Many authorities base these decisions on water samples that typically require at least 18 hours to analyze. This persistence approach, or model, often leads...

Integration of satellite data with other data for nowcasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkenheuer, Daniel L.

The Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services (PROFS) operates its own Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) mode AA and mode A groundstations and generates both VISSR (Visible and Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer) and VAS (VISSR Atmospheric Sounder) image products for its advanced meteorological workstation in real time. Derived VAS temperature soundings are received daily from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. PROFS has been improving its real-time workstation since 1981 and has used it to study mesoscale nowcasting. The workstation provides efficient access, display, and loop control of satellite products and other conventional and advanced meteorological data. Data are integrated by displaying products on standard map projections so that imagery and graphics can be combined at the workstation, by using data from a variety of sources to compute image products, and through machine analysis and modeling. The workstation's capabilities have been assessed during PROFS real-time nowcasting experiments. Nowcasts are made with the workstation, and chase teams track and observe severe weather to evaluate these nowcasts. Five-minute rapid scan visible imagery was found to be quite useful in conjunction with Doppler radar data for nowcasting. In contrast, 30-minute infrared (IR) and VAS data were beneficial for short-range forecasts. Loops of VAS water vapor imagery along with conventional IR imagery at national and regional scales showed the greatest overall utility of the satellite imagery studied. Processed sounding data showed some success depicting unstable regions prior to convection.

Real-time assessments of water quality: expanding nowcasting throughout the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2013-01-01

Nowcasts are systems that inform the public of current bacterial water-quality conditions at beaches on the basis of predictive models. During 2010–12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) worked with 23 local and State agencies to improve existing operational beach nowcast systems at 4 beaches and expand the use of predictive models in nowcasts at an additional 45 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. The predictive models were specific to each beach, and the best model for each beach was based on a unique combination of environmental and water-quality explanatory variables. The variables used most often in models to predict Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations or the probability of exceeding a State recreational water-quality standard included turbidity, day of the year, wave height, wind direction and speed, antecedent rainfall for various time periods, and change in lake level over 24 hours. During validation of 42 beach models during 2012, the models performed better than the current method to assess recreational water quality (previous day's E. coli concentration). The USGS will continue to work with local agencies to improve nowcast predictions, enable technology transfer of predictive model development procedures, and implement more operational systems during 2013 and beyond.

Nowcasting Convective Storm Evolution in East-Central Florida Using Satellite and Doppler Radar Data

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

Carbone, 1984: Nowcasting with Doppler radar: The Forecaster- Computer Relationship. Nowcasting I, ed. K.A. Browning, European Space Agency , 177-186...20503. (0 _ 𔃻. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blink) j 2. REPORT DATE j 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED N4ý4tTLE AN U STaTL. S5 4 e,,a. FUNDING NUMBERS WA...REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/ MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S AND ADORE 10. SPONSORING/ MONITORING DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE T AGENCY REPORT NUMBERAFIT1¢Cl

Probabilistic Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States at Vienna International Airport During Cold Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kneringer, Philipp; Dietz, Sebastian J.; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim

2018-04-01

Airport operations are sensitive to visibility conditions. Low-visibility events may lead to capacity reduction, delays and economic losses. Different levels of low-visibility procedures (lvp) are enacted to ensure aviation safety. A nowcast of the probabilities for each of the lvp categories helps decision makers to optimally schedule their operations. An ordered logistic regression (OLR) model is used to forecast these probabilities directly. It is applied to cold season forecasts at Vienna International Airport for lead times of 30-min out to 2 h. Model inputs are standard meteorological measurements. The skill of the forecasts is accessed by the ranked probability score. OLR outperforms persistence, which is a strong contender at the shortest lead times. The ranked probability score of the OLR is even better than the one of nowcasts from human forecasters. The OLR-based nowcasting system is computationally fast and can be updated instantaneously when new data become available.

Soundscapes

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. . Soundscapes Michael B...models to provide hindcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts of the time-evolving soundscape . In terms of the types of sound sources, we will focus initially on...APPROACH The research has two principle thrusts: 1) the modeling of the soundscape , and 2) verification using datasets that have been collected

Soundscapes

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. . Soundscapes Michael B...models to provide hindcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts of the time-evolving soundscape . In terms of the types of sound sources, we will focus initially on...APPROACH The research has two principle thrusts: 1) the modeling of the soundscape , and 2) verification using datasets that have been collected

Subregional Nowcasts of Seasonal Influenza Using Search Trends.

PubMed

Kandula, Sasikiran; Hsu, Daniel; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-11-06

Limiting the adverse effects of seasonal influenza outbreaks at state or city level requires close monitoring of localized outbreaks and reliable forecasts of their progression. Whereas forecasting models for influenza or influenza-like illness (ILI) are becoming increasingly available, their applicability to localized outbreaks is limited by the nonavailability of real-time observations of the current outbreak state at local scales. Surveillance data collected by various health departments are widely accepted as the reference standard for estimating the state of outbreaks, and in the absence of surveillance data, nowcast proxies built using Web-based activities such as search engine queries, tweets, and access of health-related webpages can be useful. Nowcast estimates of state and municipal ILI were previously published by Google Flu Trends (GFT); however, validations of these estimates were seldom reported. The aim of this study was to develop and validate models to nowcast ILI at subregional geographic scales. We built nowcast models based on autoregressive (autoregressive integrated moving average; ARIMA) and supervised regression methods (Random forests) at the US state level using regional weighted ILI and Web-based search activity derived from Google's Extended Trends application programming interface. We validated the performance of these methods using actual surveillance data for the 50 states across six seasons. We also built state-level nowcast models using state-level estimates of ILI and compared the accuracy of these estimates with the estimates of the regional models extrapolated to the state level and with the nowcast estimates published by GFT. Models built using regional ILI extrapolated to state level had a median correlation of 0.84 (interquartile range: 0.74-0.91) and a median root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.01 (IQR: 0.74-1.50), with noticeable variability across seasons and by state population size. Model forms that hypothesize the availability of timely state-level surveillance data show significantly lower errors of 0.83 (0.55-0.23). Compared with GFT, the latter model forms have lower errors but also lower correlation. These results suggest that the proposed methods may be an alternative to the discontinued GFT and that further improvements in the quality of subregional nowcasts may require increased access to more finely resolved surveillance data. ©Sasikiran Kandula, Daniel Hsu, Jeffrey Shaman. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 06.11.2017.

Nowcasting Induced Seismicity at the Groningen Gas Field in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luginbuhl, M.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2017-12-01

The Groningen natural gas field in the Netherlands has recently been a topic of controversy for many residents in the surrounding area. The gas field provides energy for the majority of the country; however, for a minority of Dutch citizens who live nearby, the seismicity induced by the gas field is a cause for major concern. Since the early 2000's, the region has seen an increase in both number and magnitude of events, the largest of which was a magnitude 3.6 in 2012. Earthquakes of this size and smaller easily cause infrastructural damage to older houses and farms built with single brick walls. Nowcasting is a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk. In this paper, the method is applied to the induced seismicity at the natural gas fields in Groningen, Netherlands. Nowcasting utilizes the catalogs of seismicity in these regions. Two earthquake magnitudes are selected, one large say , and one small say . The method utilizes the number of small earthquakes that occur between pairs of large earthquakes. The cumulative probability distribution of these values is obtained. The earthquake potential score (EPS) is defined by the number of small earthquakes that have occurred since the last large earthquake, the point where this number falls on the cumulative probability distribution of interevent counts defines the EPS. A major advantage of nowcasting is that it utilizes "natural time", earthquake counts, between events rather than clock time. Thus, it is not necessary to decluster aftershocks and the results are applicable if the level of induced seismicity varies in time, which it does in this case. The application of natural time to the accumulation of the seismic hazard depends on the applicability of Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling. The increasing number of small earthquakes that occur after a large earthquake can be scaled to give the risk of a large earthquake occurring. To illustrate our approach, we utilize the number of earthquakes in Groningen to nowcast the number of earthquakes in Groningen. The applicability of the scaling is illustrated during the rapid build up of seismicity between 2004 and 2016. It can now be used to forecast the expected reduction in seismicity associated with reduction in gas production.

Systematic investigations of intense convective precipitation events on European scale based on radar- and lightning-cell tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tüchler, Lukas; Meyer, Vera

2013-04-01

The new radar-data and lightning-data based automatic cell identification, tracking and nowcasting tool A-TNT (Austrian Thunderstorm Nowcasting Tool), which has been developed at ZAMG, has been applied to investigate the appearance of thunderstorms at Europe scale. Based on the ec-TRAM-method [1], the algorithm identifies and monitors regions of intense precipitation and lightning activity separately by analyzing sequential two-dimensional intensity maps of radar precipitation rate or lightning densities, respectively. Each data source is processed by a stand-alone identification, tracking and nowcasting procedure. The two tracking results are combined to a "main" cell in a final step. This approach allows that the output derived from the two data sources complement each other giving a more comprehensive picture about the current storm situation. So it is possible to distinguish between pure precipitation cells and thunderstorms, to observe regions, where one data source is not or poorly available, and to compensate for occasional data failures. Consequently, the combined cell-tracks are expected to be more consistent and the cell-tracking more robust. Input data for radar-cell tracking on European Scale is the OPERA radar-composite, which is provided every 15 minutes on a 2 km x 2 km grid, indicating the location and intensity of precipitation over Europe. For the lightning-cell tracking, the lightning-detection data of the EUCLID network is mapped on the OPERA grid. Every five minutes, flash density maps with recorded strokes are created and analyzed. This study will present a detailed investigation of the quality of the identification and tracking results using radar and lightning data. The improvements concerning the robustness and reliability of the cell tracking achieved by combining both data sources will be shown. Analyses about cell tracks and selected storm parameters like frequency, longevity and area will give insight into occurrence, appearance and impact of different severe precipitation events. These studies are performed to support the project HAREN (Hazard Assessment based on Rainfall European Nowcasts, funded by the EC Directorate General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection), which has the objective to improve warnings for hazards induced by precipitation at local scale all over Europe. REFERENCES: [1] Meyer, V. K., H. Höller, and H. D. Betz 2012: Automated thunderstorm tracking and nowcasting: utilization of three-dimensional lightning and radar data. Manuscript accepted for publication in ACPD.

Real-time Retrieving Atmospheric Parameters from Multi-GNSS Constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zus, F.; Lu, C.; Dick, G.; Ge, M.; Wickert, J.; Schuh, H.

2016-12-01

The multi-constellation GNSS (e.g. GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and BeiDou) bring great opportunities and challenges for real-time retrieval of atmospheric parameters for supporting numerical weather prediction (NWP) nowcasting or severe weather event monitoring. In this study, the observations from different GNSS are combined together for atmospheric parameter retrieving based on the real-time precise point positioning technique. The atmospheric parameters retrieved from multi-GNSS observations, including zenith total delay (ZTD), integrated water vapor (IWV), horizontal gradient (especially high-resolution gradient estimates) and slant total delay (STD), are carefully analyzed and evaluated by using the VLBI, radiosonde, water vapor radiometer and numerical weather model to independently validate the performance of individual GNSS and also demonstrate the benefits of multi-constellation GNSS for real-time atmospheric monitoring. Numerous results show that the multi-GNSS processing can provide real-time atmospheric products with higher accuracy, stronger reliability and better distribution, which would be beneficial for atmospheric sounding systems, especially for nowcasting of extreme weather.

A nowcast model for tides and tidal currents in San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, Ralph T.; Smith, Richard E.

1998-01-01

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) installed Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS) in San Francisco Bay, California to provide observations of tides, tidal currents, and meteorological conditions. PORTS data are used for optimizing vessel operations, increasing margin of safety for navigation, and guiding hazardous material spill prevention and response. Because tides and tidal currents in San Francisco Bay are extremely complex, limited real-time observations are insufficient to provide spatial resolution for variations of tides and tidal currents. To fill the information gaps, a highresolution, robust, semi-implicit, finite-difference nowcast numerical model has been implemented for San Francisco Bay. The model grid and water depths are defined on coordinates based on Mercator projection so the model outputs can be directly superimposed on navigation charts. A data assimilation algorithm has been established to derive the boundary conditions for model simulations. The nowcast model is executed every hour continuously for tides and tidal currents starting from 24 hours before the present time (now) covering a total of 48 hours simulation. Forty-eight hours of nowcast model results are available to the public at all times through the World Wide Web (WWW). Users can view and download the nowcast model results for tides and tidal current distributions in San Francisco Bay for their specific applications and for further analysis.

A New Integrated Weighted Model in SNOW-V10: Verification of Categorical Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Laura X.; Isaac, George A.; Sheng, Grant

2014-01-01

This paper presents the verification results for nowcasts of seven categorical variables from an integrated weighted model (INTW) and the underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Nowcasting, or short range forecasting (0-6 h), over complex terrain with sufficient accuracy is highly desirable but a very challenging task. A weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system (WEBIS) for generating nowcasts by integrating NWP forecasts and high frequency observations was used during the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games as part of the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) project. Forecast data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids (at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) were selected as background gridded data for generating the integrated nowcasts. Seven forecast variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind gust, visibility, ceiling and precipitation rate are treated as categorical variables for verifying the integrated weighted forecasts. By analyzing the verification of forecasts from INTW and the NWP models among 15 sites, the integrated weighted model was found to produce more accurate forecasts for the 7 selected forecast variables, regardless of location. This is based on the multi-categorical Heidke skill scores for the test period 12 February to 21 March 2010.

Visual Analytics approach for Lightning data analysis and cell nowcasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Stefan; Meng, Liqiu; Betz, Hans-Dieter

2013-04-01

Thunderstorms and their ground effects, such as flash floods, hail, lightning, strong wind and tornadoes, are responsible for most weather damages (Bonelli & Marcacci 2008). Thus to understand, identify, track and predict lightning cells is essential. An important aspect for decision makers is an appropriate visualization of weather analysis results including the representation of dynamic lightning cells. This work focuses on the visual analysis of lightning data and lightning cell nowcasting which aim to detect and understanding spatial-temporal patterns of moving thunderstorms. Lightnings are described by 3D coordinates and the exact occurrence time of lightnings. The three-dimensionally resolved total lightning data used in our experiment are provided by the European lightning detection network LINET (Betz et al. 2009). In all previous works, lightning point data, detected lightning cells and derived cell tracks are visualized in 2D. Lightning cells are either displayed as 2D convex hulls with or without the underlying lightning point data. Due to recent improvements of lightning data detection and accuracy, there is a growing demand on multidimensional and interactive visualization in particular for decision makers. In a first step lightning cells are identified and tracked. Then an interactive graphic user interface (GUI) is developed to investigate the dynamics of the lightning cells: e.g. changes of cell density, location, extension as well as merging and splitting behavior in 3D over time. In particular a space time cube approach is highlighted along with statistical analysis. Furthermore a lightning cell nowcasting is conducted and visualized. The idea thereby is to predict the following cell features for the next 10-60 minutes including location, centre, extension, density, area, volume, lifetime and cell feature probabilities. The main focus will be set to a suitable interactive visualization of the predicted featured within the GUI. The developed visual exploring tool for the purpose of supporting decision making is investigated for two determined user groups: lightning experts and interested lay public. Betz HD, Schmidt K, Oettinger WP (2009) LINET - An International VLF/LF Lightning Detection Network in Europe. In: Betz HD, Schumann U, Laroche P (eds) Lightning: Principles, Instruments and Applications. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp 115-140 Bonelli P, Marcacci P (2008) Thunderstorm nowcasting by means of lightning and radar data: algorithms and applications in northern Italy. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci 8(5):1187-1198

Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting based on an extrapolation of radar reflectivity and an ensemble approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokol, Zbyněk; Mejsnar, Jan; Pop, Lukáš; Bližňák, Vojtěch

2017-09-01

A new method for the probabilistic nowcasting of instantaneous rain rates (ENS) based on the ensemble technique and extrapolation along Lagrangian trajectories of current radar reflectivity is presented. Assuming inaccurate forecasts of the trajectories, an ensemble of precipitation forecasts is calculated and used to estimate the probability that rain rates will exceed a given threshold in a given grid point. Although the extrapolation neglects the growth and decay of precipitation, their impact on the probability forecast is taken into account by the calibration of forecasts using the reliability component of the Brier score (BS). ENS forecasts the probability that the rain rates will exceed thresholds of 0.1, 1.0 and 3.0 mm/h in squares of 3 km by 3 km. The lead times were up to 60 min, and the forecast accuracy was measured by the BS. The ENS forecasts were compared with two other methods: combined method (COM) and neighbourhood method (NEI). NEI considered the extrapolated values in the square neighbourhood of 5 by 5 grid points of the point of interest as ensemble members, and the COM ensemble was comprised of united ensemble members of ENS and NEI. The results showed that the calibration technique significantly improves bias of the probability forecasts by including additional uncertainties that correspond to neglected processes during the extrapolation. In addition, the calibration can also be used for finding the limits of maximum lead times for which the forecasting method is useful. We found that ENS is useful for lead times up to 60 min for thresholds of 0.1 and 1 mm/h and approximately 30 to 40 min for a threshold of 3 mm/h. We also found that a reasonable size of the ensemble is 100 members, which provided better scores than ensembles with 10, 25 and 50 members. In terms of the BS, the best results were obtained by ENS and COM, which are comparable. However, ENS is better calibrated and thus preferable.

Application of a Fuzzy Verification Technique for Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WRE-N) Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

comes when considering numerous scores and statistics during a preliminary evaluation of the applicability of the fuzzy- verification minimum coverage...The selection of thresholds with which to generate categorical-verification scores and statistics from the application of both traditional and...of statistically significant numbers of cases; the latter presents a challenge of limited application for assessment of the forecast models’ ability

Towards automating measurements and predictions of Escherichia coli concentrations in the Cuyahoga River, Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio, 2012–14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brady, Amie M. G.; Meg B. Plona,

2015-07-30

A computer program was developed to manage the nowcasts by running the predictive models and posting the results to a publicly accessible Web site daily by 9 a.m. The nowcasts were able to correctly predict E. coli concentrations above or below the water-quality standard at Jaite for 79 percent of the samples compared with the measured concentrations. In comparison, the persistence model (using the previous day’s sample concentration) correctly predicted concentrations above or below the water-quality standard in only 68 percent of the samples. To determine if the Jaite nowcast could be used for the stretch of the river between Lock 29 and Jaite, the model predictions for Jaite were compared with the measured concentrations at Lock 29. The Jaite nowcast provided correct responses for 77 percent of the Lock 29 samples, which was a greater percentage than the percentage of correct responses (58 percent) from the persistence model at Lock 29.

NOWCASTING AND FORECASTING BEACH BACTERIA CONCENTRATIONS USING EPA VIRTUAL BEACH SOFTWARE

EPA Science Inventory

Evidence shows that traditional persistence-based beach closure decision making is inadequate, beaches are closed when they could be open and kept open when they should be closed. Intense interest is now focused on efforts to nowcast beach conditions using surrogate variables, su...

Validation Test Report for the 1/8 deg Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model Nowcast/Forecast System

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-24

Test Report for the 1/8° Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model Nowcast/Forecast System Charlie N. BarroN a. Birol Kara roBert C. rhodes ClarK rowley......OF ACRONYMS ......................................................................48 VALIDATION TEST REPORT FOR THE 1/8° GLOBAL NAVY COASTAL

Self-Nowcast Model of extreme precipitation events for operational meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

França, G. B.; de Almeida, M. V.; Rosette, A. C.

2015-10-01

Nowadays many social activities require short-term (one to two hours) and local area forecasts of extreme weather. In particular, air traffic systems have been studying how to minimize the impact of meteorological events, such as turbulence, wind shear, ice, and heavy rain, which are related to the presence of convective systems during all flight phases. This paper presents an alternative self-nowcast model, based on neural network techniques, to produce short-term and local-specific forecasts of extreme meteorological events in the area of the landing and take-off region of Galeão, the principal airport in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Twelve years of data were used for neural network training and validation. Data are originally from four sources: (1) hourly meteorological observations from surface meteorological stations at five airports distributed around the study area, (2) atmospheric profiles collected twice a day at the meteorological station at Galeão Airport, (3) rain rate data collected from a network of twenty-nine rain gauges in the study area; and (4) lightning data regularly collected by national detection networks. An investigation was done about the capability of a neural network to produce early warning signs - or as a nowcasting tool - for extreme meteorological events. The self-nowcast model was validated using results from six categorical statistics, indicated in parentheses for forecasts of the first, second, and third hours, respectively, namely: proportion correct (0.98, 0.96, and 0.94), bias (1.37, 1.48, and 1.83), probability of detection (0.84, 0.80, and 0.76), false-alarm ratio (0.38, 0.46, and 0.58), and threat score (0.54, 0.47, and 0.37). Possible sources of error related to the validation procedure are discussed. Two key points have been identified in which there is a possibility of error: i.e., subjectivity on the part of the meteorologist making the observation, and a rain gauge measurement error of about 20 % depending on wind speed. The latter was better demonstrated when lightning data were included in the validation. The validation showed that the proposed model's performance was quite encouraging for the first and second hours.

Advances in nowcasting influenza-like illness rates using search query logs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lampos, Vasileios; Miller, Andrew C.; Crossan, Steve; Stefansen, Christian

2015-08-01

User-generated content can assist epidemiological surveillance in the early detection and prevalence estimation of infectious diseases, such as influenza. Google Flu Trends embodies the first public platform for transforming search queries to indications about the current state of flu in various places all over the world. However, the original model significantly mispredicted influenza-like illness rates in the US during the 2012-13 flu season. In this work, we build on the previous modeling attempt, proposing substantial improvements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of a widely used linear regularized regression solver, known as the Elastic Net. Then, we expand on this model by incorporating the queries selected by the Elastic Net into a nonlinear regression framework, based on a composite Gaussian Process. Finally, we augment the query-only predictions with an autoregressive model, injecting prior knowledge about the disease. We assess predictive performance using five consecutive flu seasons spanning from 2008 to 2013 and qualitatively explain certain shortcomings of the previous approach. Our results indicate that a nonlinear query modeling approach delivers the lowest cumulative nowcasting error, and also suggest that query information significantly improves autoregressive inferences, obtaining state-of-the-art performance.

Advances in nowcasting influenza-like illness rates using search query logs.

PubMed

Lampos, Vasileios; Miller, Andrew C; Crossan, Steve; Stefansen, Christian

2015-08-03

User-generated content can assist epidemiological surveillance in the early detection and prevalence estimation of infectious diseases, such as influenza. Google Flu Trends embodies the first public platform for transforming search queries to indications about the current state of flu in various places all over the world. However, the original model significantly mispredicted influenza-like illness rates in the US during the 2012-13 flu season. In this work, we build on the previous modeling attempt, proposing substantial improvements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of a widely used linear regularized regression solver, known as the Elastic Net. Then, we expand on this model by incorporating the queries selected by the Elastic Net into a nonlinear regression framework, based on a composite Gaussian Process. Finally, we augment the query-only predictions with an autoregressive model, injecting prior knowledge about the disease. We assess predictive performance using five consecutive flu seasons spanning from 2008 to 2013 and qualitatively explain certain shortcomings of the previous approach. Our results indicate that a nonlinear query modeling approach delivers the lowest cumulative nowcasting error, and also suggest that query information significantly improves autoregressive inferences, obtaining state-of-the-art performance.

Rain radar measurement error estimation using data assimilation in an advection-based nowcasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merker, Claire; Ament, Felix; Clemens, Marco

2017-04-01

The quantification of measurement uncertainty for rain radar data remains challenging. Radar reflectivity measurements are affected, amongst other things, by calibration errors, noise, blocking and clutter, and attenuation. Their combined impact on measurement accuracy is difficult to quantify due to incomplete process understanding and complex interdependencies. An improved quality assessment of rain radar measurements is of interest for applications both in meteorology and hydrology, for example for precipitation ensemble generation, rainfall runoff simulations, or in data assimilation for numerical weather prediction. Especially a detailed description of the spatial and temporal structure of errors is beneficial in order to make best use of the areal precipitation information provided by radars. Radar precipitation ensembles are one promising approach to represent spatially variable radar measurement errors. We present a method combining ensemble radar precipitation nowcasting with data assimilation to estimate radar measurement uncertainty at each pixel. This combination of ensemble forecast and observation yields a consistent spatial and temporal evolution of the radar error field. We use an advection-based nowcasting method to generate an ensemble reflectivity forecast from initial data of a rain radar network. Subsequently, reflectivity data from single radars is assimilated into the forecast using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. The spread of the resulting analysis ensemble provides a flow-dependent, spatially and temporally correlated reflectivity error estimate at each pixel. We will present first case studies that illustrate the method using data from a high-resolution X-band radar network.

3D soil water nowcasting using electromagnetic conductivity imaging and the ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jingyi; McBratney, Alex; Minasny, Budiman; Triantafilis, John

2017-04-01

Mapping and immediate forecasting of soil water content (θ) and its movement can be challenging. Although apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) measured by electromagnetic induction has been used, it is difficult to apply it along a transect or across a field. Across a 3.95-ha field with varying soil texture, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnFK) was used to monitor and nowcast θ dynamics in 2-d and 3-d over 16 days. The EnKF combined a physical model fitted with θ measured by soil moisture sensors and an Artificial Neural Network model comprising estimate of true electrical conductivity (σ) generated by inversions of DUALEM-421S ECa data. Results showed that the spatio-temporal variation in θ can be successfully modelled using the EnKF (Lin's concordance = 0.89). Soil water dried fast at the beginning of the irrigation and decreased with time and soil depth, which were consistent with the classical soil drying theory and experiments. It was also found that the soil dried fast in the loamy and duplex soils across the field, which was attributable to deep drainage and preferential flows. It was concluded that the EnKF approach can be used to better the irrigation practice so that variation in irrigation is minimised and irrigation efficiency is improved by applying variable rates of irrigation across the field. In addition, soil water status can be nowcasted using this method with weather forecast information, which will provide guidance to farmers for real-time irrigation management.

Probabilistic forecasts based on radar rainfall uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liguori, S.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

2012-04-01

The potential advantages resulting from integrating weather radar rainfall estimates in hydro-meteorological forecasting systems is limited by the inherent uncertainty affecting radar rainfall measurements, which is due to various sources of error [1-3]. The improvement of quality control and correction techniques is recognized to play a role for the future improvement of radar-based flow predictions. However, the knowledge of the uncertainty affecting radar rainfall data can also be effectively used to build a hydro-meteorological forecasting system in a probabilistic framework. This work discusses the results of the implementation of a novel probabilistic forecasting system developed to improve ensemble predictions over a small urban area located in the North of England. An ensemble of radar rainfall fields can be determined as the sum of a deterministic component and a perturbation field, the latter being informed by the knowledge of the spatial-temporal characteristics of the radar error assessed with reference to rain-gauges measurements. This approach is similar to the REAL system [4] developed for use in the Southern-Alps. The radar uncertainty estimate can then be propagated with a nowcasting model, used to extrapolate an ensemble of radar rainfall forecasts, which can ultimately drive hydrological ensemble predictions. A radar ensemble generator has been calibrated using radar rainfall data made available from the UK Met Office after applying post-processing and corrections algorithms [5-6]. One hour rainfall accumulations from 235 rain gauges recorded for the year 2007 have provided the reference to determine the radar error. Statistics describing the spatial characteristics of the error (i.e. mean and covariance) have been computed off-line at gauges location, along with the parameters describing the error temporal correlation. A system has then been set up to impose the space-time error properties to stochastic perturbations, generated in real-time at gauges location, and then interpolated back onto the radar domain, in order to obtain probabilistic radar rainfall fields in real time. The deterministic nowcasting model integrated in the STEPS system [7-8] has been used for the purpose of propagating the uncertainty and assessing the benefit of implementing the radar ensemble generator for probabilistic rainfall forecasts and ultimately sewer flow predictions. For this purpose, events representative of different types of precipitation (i.e. stratiform/convective) and significant at the urban catchment scale (i.e. in terms of sewer overflow within the urban drainage system) have been selected. As high spatial/temporal resolution is required to the forecasts for their use in urban areas [9-11], the probabilistic nowcasts have been set up to be produced at 1 km resolution and 5 min intervals. The forecasting chain is completed by a hydrodynamic model of the urban drainage network. The aim of this work is to discuss the implementation of this probabilistic system, which takes into account the radar error to characterize the forecast uncertainty, with consequent potential benefits in the management of urban systems. It will also allow a comparison with previous findings related to the analysis of different approaches to uncertainty estimation and quantification in terms of rainfall [12] and flows at the urban scale [13]. Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the BADC, the UK Met Office and Dr. Alan Seed from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for providing the radar data and the nowcasting model. The authors acknowledge the support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) via grant EP/I012222/1.

Space Weather Now-Casting for Area-Denied Locations: Testing All-Sky-Imaging Applications at Geomagnetic Conjugate Points.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumgardner, J. L.; Mendillo, M.; Martinis, C. R.; Hickey, D. A.; Wroten, J.

2017-12-01

We explore the concept of using an all-sky-imager (ASI) in one hemisphere to provide now-casting of ionospheric perturbations in the opposite hemisphere. The specific example deals with low-latitude plasma instabilities known as equatorial spread-F (ESF) that depend on geomagnetic field controlled electrodynamics. ASI observations of 630.0 nm airglow from 300 km exhibit regions of low emission ("airglow depletions") that correlate highly with ESF patterns of radiowave disruptions, e.g., from GPS satellites. For both oceanographic and geopolitical reasons, there are vast regions of the globe that cannot be used for ground-based now-casting of local ESF effects. For such area-denied locations, it is possible for observations of airglow depletions from the opposite hemisphere to be used to specify both local and conjugate location environmental impacts. We use fifteen months of ASI observations from the El Leoncito Observatory (Argentina) to predict simultaneous conditions at its trans-equatorial geomagnetic conjugate point in Villa de Leyva (Colombia)—validated by independent ASI observations at that location. We find the success rate of conjugate point now-casting to be greater than 95% for large-scale ESF occurrence patterns. For a different pair of stations at higher magnetic latitudes, three years of observations from the Arecibo Observatory (Puerto Rico) were used to make ESF now-casting at its conjugate point in Mercedes (Argentina) with a 85% success rate.

Civil Protection Practitioners' Response to Introducing Nowcasting in Weather Warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulbrich, Thorsten

2014-05-01

The HErZ project WEXICOM (Improving the process of weather warnings and extreme weather information in the chain from the meteorological forecasts to their communication for the Berlin conurbation) assesses the communication and use of weather warnings. In cooperation with DWD we conducted two online surveys with German relief forces before and after a nowcasting application was introduced into the weather warning platform FEWIS. The aim is to investigate how relief workers make use of the additional information. DWD supports German civil protection by providing the warning platform FeWIS (Fire brigade Weather Information System) for registered relief workers. The platform provides information on meteorological hazards needed to take precautions and to support rescue actions. In June 2013 DWD added nowcasted estimates of storm attributes including warning cones based on a 1x1 km grid. The tool named "GewitterMonitor" is based on NowcastMIX and uses short-term weather models and observations to derive warnings with high precision on intensity, location and timing of thunder storm cells for the following two hours. A first survey provided prior to the addition of nowcasted information investigates how users benefit from FeWIS and how they perceive its functionality and reliability. Following the introduction users gain experience applying the nowcasting tool in the thunderstorm season 2013. In Winter 2013/2014 we conducted another online survey. The post-survey comprises questions on the use of the GewitterMonitor and on how the tool supports relief forces in responding to meteorological risks. The post survey also repeats questions on the perception of functionality and function of FeWIS and poses questions derived from the previous survey. This second survey collects practitioners feedback on GewitterMonitor and allows to detect changes in how users perceive the performance of FeWIS after the addition by relating responses to the prior survey.

Testing and Refining the Ohio Nowcast at Two Lake Erie Beaches-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.; Bertke, Erin E.; Darner, Robert A.

2009-01-01

The Ohio Nowcast has been providing real-time beach advisories to the public on the basis of predictive models since 2006. In support of the nowcast, data were collected during the recreational season of 2008 to validate and refine predictive models at two Lake Erie beaches. Predictive models yield data on the probability that the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli will be exceeded. Field personnel collected or compiled data on Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations as well as variables expected to affect these concentrations, including manual and automated measurements of turbidity, wave height, and water temperature; lake level; and radar and airport rainfall amounts. Two new variables were measured during 2008 - photosynthetically-active radiation at Huntington (Bay Village) and foreshore head at Edgewater (Cleveland). (The foreshore is a strip of land along a body of water between low and high water marks.) The performance of the nowcast was monitored during 2008. The Huntington nowcast yielded a greater percentage of correct responses (84.9 percent) than did the previous day's E. coli concentration (75.2 percent). In contrast, at Edgewater, the nowcast yielded a slightly higher percentage of correct responses (61.0 percent) as compared to the previous day's E. coli concentration (56.5 percent), but both percentages were relatively low. Lake levels in 2008 were significantly higher than levels in the data used to develop the Edgewater models (2004-7), confounding their abilities to provide correct responses. At Edgewater during 2008, the strongest relation (as measured by Pearson's correlation) was between E. coli concentrations and the difference in foreshore head over the past 24 hours (r=0.48), a variable not included in the models. At Huntington, photosynthetically-active radiation on the previous day showed a significant negative relation to E. coli concentrations (r=-0.33) during 2008. Refined models were developed for Huntington and Edgewater using data collected from 2005-8. The refined models included the variables wave height, log turbidity, radar or airport rainfall, and day of the year in various combinations for different dated segments of the recreational season. Water-resource managers will determine which models to apply to the Ohio Nowcast for issuing water-quality advisories in 2009.

Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2017-12-01

The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk. As another application, we can define large rectangular regions of subduction zones and shallow depths to compute the progress of the fault zone towards the next major tsunami-genic earthquake. We can then rank the relative progress of the major subduction zones of the world through their cycles of large earthquakes using this method to determine which zones are most at risk.

NUVEM - New methods to Use gnss water Vapor Estimates for Meteorology of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R. M. S.; Viterbo, P.; Bos, M. S.; Martins, J. P.; Sá, A. G.; Valentim, H.; Jones, J.

2014-12-01

NUVEM (New methods to Use gnss water Vapor Estimates for Meteorology of Portugal) is a collaborative project funded by the Portuguese National Science Foundation (FCT) aiming to implement a multi-disciplinary approach in order to operationalize the inclusion of GNSS-PWV estimates for nowcasting in Portugal, namely for the preparation of warnings of severe weather. To achieve such goal, the NUVEM project is divided in two major components: a) Development and implementation of methods to compute accurate estimates of PWV (Precipitable Water Vapor) in NRT (Near Real-Time); b) Integration of such estimates in nowcasting procedures in use at IPMA (Portuguese Meteorological Service). Methodologies will be optimized at SEGAL to passive and actively access to the data; the PWV estimations will be computed using PPP (Precise Point Positioning), which permits the estimation of each individual station separately; solutions will be validated using internal and external values; and computed solutions will be transferred timely to the IPMA Operational Center. Validation of derived estimations using robust statistics is an important component of the project. The need for sending computed values as soon as possible to IPMA requires fast but reliable internal (e.g., noise estimation) and external (e.g., feedback from IPMA using other sensors like radiosondes) assessment of the quality of the PWV estimates. At IPMA, the goal is to implement the operational use of GNSS-PWV to assist weather nowcasting in Portugal. This will be done with the assistance of the Meteo group of IDL. Maps of GNSS-PWV will be automatically created and compared with solutions provided by other operational systems in order to help IPMA to detect suspicious patterns at near real time. This will be the first step towards the assimilation of GNSS-PWV estimates at IPMA nowcasting models. The NUVEM (EXPL/GEO-MET/0413/2013) project will also contribute to the active participation of Portugal at the COST Action ES1206 - Advanced Global Navigation Satellite Systems tropospheric products for monitoring severe weather events and climate (GNSS4SWEC). This work is also carried out in the framework of the Portuguese Project SMOG (PTDC/CTE-ATM/119922/2010).

Improved Orbit Determination and Forecasts with an Assimilative Tool for Atmospheric Density and Satellite Drag Specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowley, G.; Pilinski, M.; Sutton, E. K.; Codrescu, M.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Matsuo, T.; Fedrizzi, M.; Solomon, S. C.; Qian, L.; Thayer, J. P.

2016-12-01

Much as aircraft are affected by the prevailing winds and weather conditions in which they fly, satellites are affected by the variability in density and motion of the near earth space environment. Drastic changes in the neutral density of the thermosphere, caused by geomagnetic storms or other phenomena, result in perturbations of LEO satellite motions through drag on the satellite surfaces. This can lead to difficulties in locating important satellites, temporarily losing track of satellites, and errors when predicting collisions in space. We describe ongoing work to build a comprehensive nowcast and forecast system for specifying the neutral atmospheric state related to orbital drag conditions. The system outputs include neutral density, winds, temperature, composition, and the satellite drag derived from these parameters. This modeling tool is based on several state-of-the-art coupled models of the thermosphere-ionosphere as well as several empirical models running in real-time and uses assimilative techniques to produce a thermospheric nowcast. This software will also produce 72 hour predictions of the global thermosphere-ionosphere system using the nowcast as the initial condition and using near real-time and predicted space weather data and indices as the inputs. Features of this technique include: • Satellite drag specifications with errors lower than current models • Altitude coverage up to 1000km • Background state representation using both first principles and empirical models • Assimilation of satellite drag and other datatypes • Real time capability • Ability to produce 72-hour forecasts of the atmospheric state In this paper, we will summarize the model design and assimilative architecture, and present preliminary validation results. Validation results will be presented in the context of satellite orbit errors and compared with several leading atmospheric models including the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model, which is currently used operationally by the Air Force to specify neutral densities. As part of the analysis, we compare the drag observed by a variety of satellites which were not used as part of the assimilation-dataset and whose perigee altitudes span a range from 200km to 700 km.

3D soil water nowcasting using electromagnetic conductivity imaging and the ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jingyi; McBratney, Alex B.; Minasny, Budiman; Triantafilis, John

2017-06-01

Mapping and immediate forecasting of soil water content (θ) and its movement can be challenging. Although inversion of apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) measured by electromagnetic induction to calculate depth-specific electrical conductivity (σ) has been used, it is difficult to apply it across a field. In this paper we use a calibration established along a transect, across a 3.94-ha field with varying soil texture, using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to monitor and nowcast the 3-dimensional θ dynamics on 16 separate days over a period of 38 days. The EnKF combined a physical model fitted with θ measured by soil moisture sensors and an Artificial Neural Network model comprising σ generated by quasi-3d inversions of DUALEM-421S ECa data. Results showed that the distribution of θ was controlled by soil texture, topography, and vegetation. Soil water dried fastest at the beginning after the initial irrigation event and decreased with time and soil depth, which was consistent with classical soil drying theory and experiments. It was also found that the soil dried fastest in the loamy and duplex soils present in the field, which was attributable to deep drainage and preferential flow. It was concluded that the EnKF approach can be used to improve the irrigation efficiency by applying variable irrigation rates across the field. In addition, soil water status can be nowcasted across large spatial extents using this method with weather forecast information, which will provide guidance to farmers for real-time irrigation management.

Nowcasting and forecasting of the magnetopause and bow shock—A status update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrinec, S. M.; Redmon, R. J.; Rastaetter, L.

2017-01-01

There has long been interest in knowing the shape and location of the Earth's magnetopause and of the standing fast-mode bow shock upstream of the Earth's magnetosphere. This quest for knowledge spans both the research and operations arenas. Pertinent to the latter, nowcasting and near-term forecasting are important for determining the extent to which the magnetosphere is compressed or expanded due to the influence of the solar wind bulk plasma and fields and the coupling to other magnetosphere-ionosphere processes with possible effects on assets. This article provides an update to a previous article on the same topic published 15 years earlier, with focus on studies that have been conducted, the current status of nowcasting and forecasting of geophysical boundaries, and future endeavors.

Advances in Landslide Nowcasting: Evaluation of a Global and Regional Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia Bach; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Adler, Robert; Hong, Yang; Kumar, Sujay; Lerner-Lam, Arthur

2011-01-01

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of nowcasts that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment.

Nowcasting in the FROST-2014 Sochi Olympic project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bica, Benedikt; Wang, Yong; Joe, Paul; Isaac, George; Kiktev, Dmitry; Bocharnikov, Nikolai

2013-04-01

FROST (Forecast and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed) 2014 is a WMO WWRP international project aimed at development, implementation, and demonstration of capabilities of short-range numerical weather prediction and nowcasting technologies for mountainous terrain in winter season. Sharp weather contrasts and high spatial and temporal variability are typical for the region of the Sochi-2014 Olympics. Steep mountainous terrain and an intricate mixture of maritime sub-tropical and Alpine environments make weather forecasting in this region extremely challenging. Goals of the FROST-2014 project: • To develop a comprehensive information resource of Alpine winter weather observations; • To improve and exploit: o Nowcasting systems of high impact weather phenomena (precipitation type and intensity, snow levels, visibility, wind speed, direction and gusts) in complex terrain; o High-resolution deterministic and ensemble mesoscale forecasts in winter complex terrain environment; • To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region; • To deliver forecasts (Nowcasts) to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers and assess benefits of forecast improvement. 46 Automatic Meteorological Stations (AMS) were installed in the Olympic region by Roshydromet, by owners of sport venues and by the Megafon corporation, provider of mobile communication services. The time resolution of AMS observations does not exceed 10 minutes. For a subset of the stations it is even equal to 1 min. Data flow from the new dual polarization Doppler weather radar WRM200 in Sochi was organized at the end of 2012. Temperature/humidity and wind profilers and two Micro Rain Radars (MRR) will supplement the network. Nowcasting potential of NWP models participating in the project (COSMO, GEM, WRF, AROME, HARMONIE) is to be assessed for direct and post-processed (e.g. Kalman filter, 1-D model, MOS) model forecasts. Besides the meso-scale models, the specialized nowcasting systems are expected to be used in the project - ABOM, CARDS, INCA, INTW, STEPS, MeteoExpert. FROST-2014 is intended as an 'end-to-end' project. Its products will be used by local forecasters for meteorological support of the Olympics and preceding test sport events. The project is open for new interested participants. Additional information is available at http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru.

Space-based Scintillation Nowcasting with the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, K.; Starks, M.; Beach, T.; Basu, S.

2008-12-01

The Air Force Research Laboratory's Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) fuses ground- and space-based data in a near real-time physics-based model aimed at forecasting and nowcasting equatorial scintillations and their impacts on satellite communications and navigation. A key component of the system is the C/NOFS satellite that was launched into a low-inclination (13°) elliptical orbit (400 km x 850 km) in April 2008. The satellite contains six sensors to measure space environment parameters including electron density and temperature, ion density and drift, electric and magnetic fields and neutral wind, as well as a tri-band radio beacon transmitting at 150 MHz, 400 MHz and 1067 MHz. Scintillation nowcasts are derived from measuring the one-dimensional in situ electron density fluctuations and subsequently modeling the propagation environment for satellite-to-ground radio links. The modeling process requires a number of simplifying assumptions regarding the three-dimensional structure of the ionosphere and the results are readily validated by comparisons with ground-based measurements of the satellite's tri-band beacon signals. In mid-September 2008 a campaign to perform detailed analyses of space-based scintillation nowcasts with numerous ground observations was conducted in the vicinity of Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands. To maximize the collection of ground-truth data, the ALTAIR radar was employed to obtain detailed information on the spatial structure of the ionosphere during the campaign and to aid the improvement of space-based nowcasting algorithms. A comparison of these results will be presented; it appears that detailed information on the electron density structure is a limiting factor in modeling the scintillation environment from in situ observations.

Using Ice Predictions to Guide Submarines

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

the Arctic Cap Nowcast/ Forecast System (ACNFS) in September 2013. The ACNFS consists of a coupled ice -ocean model that assimilates available real...of the ice cover. The age of the sea ice serves as an indicator of its physical properties including surface roughness, melt pond coverage, and...the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS). Ice thickness is in meters for 11 September 2015. Thickness ranges from zero to five meters as shown

Verification of Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WRE-N) Forecasts Using a Spatial-Categorical Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

forecasts and observations on a common grid, which enables the application a number of different spatial verification methods that reveal various...forecasts of continuous meteorological variables using categorical and object-based methods . White Sands Missile Range (NM): Army Research Laboratory (US... Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model adapted for generating short-range nowcasts and gridded observations produced by the

Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löptien, U.; Axell, L.

2014-12-01

The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea located in a densely populated area in northern Europe. Severe sea ice conditions have the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic considerably. Thus, sea ice fore- and nowcasts are regularly provided by the national weather services. Typically, the forecast comprises several ice properties that are distributed as prognostic variables, but their actual usefulness is difficult to measure, and the ship captains must determine their relative importance and relevance for optimal ship speed and safety ad hoc. The present study provides a more objective approach by comparing the ship speeds, obtained by the automatic identification system (AIS), with the respective forecasted ice conditions. We find that, despite an unavoidable random component, this information is useful to constrain and rate fore- and nowcasts. More precisely, 62-67% of ship speed variations can be explained by the forecasted ice properties when fitting a mixed-effect model. This statistical fit is based on a test region in the Bothnian Sea during the severe winter 2011 and employs 15 to 25 min averages of ship speed.

Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löptien, U.; Axell, L.

2014-07-01

The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice covered marginal sea located in a densely populated area in northern Europe. Severe sea ice conditions have the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic considerably. Thus, sea ice fore- and nowcasts are regularly provided by the national weather services. Typically, several ice properties are allocated, but their actual usefulness is difficult to measure and the ship captains must determine their relative importance and relevance for optimal ship speed and safety ad hoc. The present study provides a more objective approach by comparing the ship speeds, obtained by the Automatic Identification System (AIS), with the respective forecasted ice conditions. We find that, despite an unavoidable random component, this information is useful to constrain and rate fore- and nowcasts. More precisely, 62-67% of ship speed variations can be explained by the forecasted ice properties when fitting a mixed effect model. This statistical fit is based on a test region in the Bothnian Bay during the severe winter 2011 and employes 15 to 25 min averages of ship speed.

Near real-time input to a propagation model for nowcasting of HF communications with aircraft on polar routes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warrington, E. M.; Stocker, A. J.; Siddle, D. R.; Hallam, J.; Al-Behadili, H. A. H.; Zaalov, N. Y.; Honary, F.; Rogers, N. C.; Boteler, D. H.; Danskin, D. W.

2016-07-01

There is a need for improved techniques for nowcasting and forecasting (over several hours) HF propagation at northerly latitudes to support airlines operating over the increasingly popular trans-polar routes. In this paper the assimilation of real-time measurements into a propagation model developed by the authors is described, including ionosonde measurements and total electron content (TEC) measurements to define the main parameters of the ionosphere. The effects of D region absorption in the polar cap and auroral regions are integrated with the model through satellite measurements of the flux of energetic solar protons (>1 MeV) and the X-ray flux in the 0.1-0.8 nm band, and ground-based magnetometer measurements which form the Kp and Dst indices of geomagnetic activity. The model incorporates various features (e.g., convecting patches of enhanced plasma density) of the polar ionosphere that are, in particular, responsible for off-great circle propagation and lead to propagation at times and frequencies not expected from on-great circle propagation alone. The model development is supported by the collection of HF propagation measurements over several paths within the polar cap, crossing the auroral oval, and along the midlatitude trough.

Global Turbulence Decision Support for Aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J.; Sharman, R.; Kessinger, C.; Feltz, W.; Wimmers, A.

2009-09-01

Turbulence is widely recognized as the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers on commercial air carriers, yet legacy decision support products such as SIGMETs and SIGWX charts provide relatively low spatial- and temporal-resolution assessments and forecasts of turbulence, with limited usefulness for strategic planning and tactical turbulence avoidance. A new effort is underway to develop an automated, rapid-update, gridded global turbulence diagnosis and forecast system that addresses upper-level clear-air turbulence, mountain-wave turbulence, and convectively-induced turbulence. This NASA-funded effort, modeled on the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) and GTG Nowcast systems, employs NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model output and data from NASA and operational satellites to produce quantitative turbulence nowcasts and forecasts. A convective nowcast element based on GFS forecasts and satellite data provides a basis for diagnosing convective turbulence. An operational prototype "Global GTG” system has been running in real-time at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research since the spring of 2009. Initial verification based on data from TRMM, Cloudsat and MODIS (for the convection nowcasting) and AIREPs and AMDAR data (for turbulence) are presented. This product aims to provide the "single authoritative source” for global turbulence information for the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System.

Foretelling Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: the FORSPEF tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Georgoulis, Manolis K.; Tziotziou, Kostas; Jiggens, Piers

2017-04-01

A novel integrated prediction system, for both solar flares (SFs) and solar energetic particle (SEP) events is being presented. The Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) provides forecasting of solar eruptive events, such as SFs with a projection to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (occurrence and velocity) and the likelihood of occurrence of a SEP event. In addition, FORSPEF, also provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual SF and CME near real-time data, as well as the complete SEP profile (peak flux, fluence, rise time, duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of SFs relies on a morphological method: the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff); it is based on an assessment of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations and it utilizes sophisticated analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events new methods have been developed for both the likelihood of SEP occurrence and the expected SEP characteristics. In particular, using the location of the flare (longitude) and the flare size (maximum soft X-ray intensity), a reductive statistical method has been implemented. Moreover, employing CME parameters (velocity and width), proper functions per width (i.e. halo, partial halo, non-halo) and integral energy (E>30, 60, 100 MeV) have been identified. In our technique warnings are issued for all > C1.0 soft X-ray flares. The prediction time in the forecasting scheme extends to 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours while the respective prediction time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and falls between 15-20 minutes for solar flares and 6 hours for CMEs. We present the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection and the operational set up. The dual approach in the development of FORPSEF (i.e. forecasting and nowcasting scheme) permits the refinement of predictions upon the availability of new data that characterize changes on the Sun and the interplanetary space, while the combined usage of SF and SEP forecasting methods upgrades FORSPEF to an integrated forecasting solution. Finally, we demonstrate the validation of the modules of the FORSPEF tool using categorical scores constructed on archived data and we further discuss independent case studies. This work has been funded through the "FORSPEF: FORecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares", ESA Contract No. 4000109641/13/NL/AK and the "SPECS: Solar Particle Events foreCasting Studies" project of the National Observatory of Athens.

The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, K.; Panziera, L.; Germann, U.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel radar-based ensemble forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecasts for the same catchments. The first radar-based ensemble forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second ensemble forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialised with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. A clear preference was found for the ensemble approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA and REAL-C2 rather then by deterministic weather radar data. Moreover, it was observed that using an ensemble of initial conditions at the forecast initialisation, as in REAL-C2, significantly improved the forecast skill. These forecasts also perform better then forecasts forced by ensemble rainfall forecasts (NORA) initialised form a single initial condition of the hydrological model. Thus the best results were obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

Working Group 1 "Advanced GNSS Processing Techniques" of the COST Action GNSS4SWEC: Overview of main achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douša, Jan; Dick, Galina; Kačmařík, Michal; Václavovic, Pavel; Pottiaux, Eric; Zus, Florian; Brenot, Hugues; Moeller, Gregor; Hinterberger, Fabian; Pacione, Rosa; Stuerze, Andrea; Eben, Kryštof; Teferle, Norman; Ding, Wenwu; Morel, Laurent; Kaplon, Jan; Hordyniec, Pavel; Rohm, Witold

2017-04-01

The COST Action ES1206 GNSS4SWEC addresses new exploitations of the synergy between developments in GNSS and meteorological communities. The Working Group 1 (Advanced GNSS processing techniques) deals with implementing and assessing new methods for GNSS tropospheric monitoring and precise positioning exploiting all modern GNSS constellations, signals, products etc. Besides other goals, WG1 coordinates development of advanced tropospheric products in support of weather numerical and non-numerical nowcasting. These are ultra-fast and high-resolution tropospheric products available in real time or in a sub-hourly fashion and parameters in support of monitoring an anisotropy of the troposphere, e.g. horizontal gradients and tropospheric slant path delays. This talk gives an overview of WG1 activities and, particularly, achievements in two activities, Benchmark and Real-time demonstration campaigns. For the Benchmark campaign a complex data set of GNSS observations and various meteorological data were collected for a two-month period in 2013 (May-June) which included severe weather events in central Europe. An initial processing of data sets from GNSS and numerical weather models (NWM) provided independently estimated reference parameters - ZTDs and tropospheric horizontal gradients. The comparison of horizontal tropospheric gradients from GNSS and NWM data demonstrated a very good agreement among independent solutions with negligible biases and an accuracy of about 0.5 mm. Visual comparisons of maps of zenith wet delays and tropospheric horizontal gradients showed very promising results for future exploitations of advanced GNSS tropospheric products in meteorological applications such as severe weather event monitoring and weather nowcasting. The Benchmark data set is also used for an extensive validation of line-of-sight tropospheric Slant Total Delays (STD) from GNSS, NWM-raytracing and Water Vapour Radiometer (WVR) solutions. Seven institutions delivered their STDs estimated based on GNSS observations processed using different software and strategies. STDs from NWM ray-tracing came from three institutions using four different NWM models. Results show generally a very good mutual agreement among all solutions from all techniques. The influence of adding not cleaned GNSS post-fit residuals, i.e. residuals that still contains non-tropospheric systematic effects such as multipath, to estimated STDs will be presented. The Real-time demonstration campaign aims at enhancing and assessing ultra-fast GNSS tropospheric products for severe weather and NWM nowcasting. Results are showed from real-time demonstrations as well as offline production simulating real-time using Benchmark campaign.

Investigating Atmospheric Rivers using GPS TPW during CalWater 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almanza, V.; Foster, J. H.; Businger, S.

2015-12-01

Ship-based Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers have been successful in obtaining millimeter accuracy total precipitable water (TPW). We apply this technique with a field experiment using a GPS meteorology system installed on board the R/V Ronald Brown during the CalWater 2015 project. The goal of CalWater is to monitor atmospheric river (AR) events over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and improve forecasting of the extreme precipitation events they can produce. During the 30-day cruise, TPW derived from radiosonde balloons released from the Ron Brown are used to verify the accuracy of shipboard GPS TPW. The results suggest that ship-based GPS TPW offers a cost-effective approach for acquiring accurate real-time meteorological observations of TPW in AR's over remote oceans, as well as near the coastlines where satellites algorithms have limited accuracy. The results have implications for augmenting operational observing networks to improve weather prediction and nowcasting of ARs, thereby supporting hazard response and mitigation efforts associated with coastal flooding events.

High-cadence nowcast of a proxy K-type index of the local magnetic activity for improved space weather monitoring applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stankov, S.; Verhulst, T. G. W.; Sapundjiev, D.

2016-12-01

The K index is a quasi-logarithmic index characterizing the 3-hourly range in the transient geomagnetic field activity at a certain location relative to its regular "quiet-day" variation. It is a popular choice among researchers; however, the 3-hour time scale is much larger than the characteristic time of various phenomena associated with an elevated geomagnetic activity. These include disturbances in the ionosphere that are of particular interest because of their (adverse) effects on present-day radio communications and navigation practices. From this aspect, there is an on-going demand for services providing real-time assessment of the (local and global) magnetic activity and alerting the users for the purpose of taking mitigating actions. An obstacle to the real-time estimation of the K index stems from the fact that the original definition of this index postulates the use of measurements from both sides of the abovementioned 3-hour interval. We offer a method for estimating, in real time, the local magnetic activity via a K-type index (K*) which closely resembles the "classical" K index. The main difference is in the way of determining the solar regular variation of the geomagnetic field - the new, real-time approach uses data from past measurements only. Another difference is that the concept of fixed 3-hour time periods (0-3, 3-6, …, 21-24), each characterized with a single K value, is abolished; instead, in the new approach, a K* value is derived at any time using data from the most recent 3 hours. Following this approach, a novel nowcast system was developed based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, establishing the field's regular variation, calculating the K* index, and issuing an alert if storm-level activity is indicated. The nominal cadence is envisaged to be as high as one K* value per minute. Another important feature of this nowcast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the quality of output. The quality control employs the fact that a complete and sound dataset provides the ideal platform for reliable, closest-to-definite index production.

Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2017-04-01

In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi:10.1002/qj.2463

Users Guide for the Single-Station Nowcast Analysis Program

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-04-01

easily attained and support the meteorologist along with the aid of some diagnostic models to make a nowcast. With the onset of conflict and primarily...270° at 20 kn. At 400 mbbr , the next mandatory level is introduced. The code says 40752 20780 26025. The height is 7520 m. The temperature is -20.7...moisture in unstable conditions is needed. TIPS models these essential meteorological assumptions and determines if thunderstorms are expected and if

Risk Management in Earthquakes, Financial Markets, and the Game of 21: The role of Forecasting, Nowcasting, and Timecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes and financial markets share surprising similarities [1]. For example, the well-known VIX index, which by definition is the implied volatility of the Standard and Poors 500 index, behaves in very similar quantitative fashion to time series for earthquake rates. Both display sudden increases at the time of an earthquake or an announcement of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [2], and both decay as an inverse power of time. Both can be regarded as examples of first order phase transitions [1], and display fractal and scaling behavior associated with critical transitions, such as power-law magnitude-frequency relations in the tails of the distributions. Early quantitative investors such as Edward Thorpe and John Kelly invented novel methods to mitigate or manage risk in games of chance such as blackjack, and in markets using hedging techniques that are still in widespread use today. The basic idea is the concept of proportional betting, where the gambler/investor bets a fraction of the bankroll whose size is determined by the "edge" or inside knowledge of the real (and changing) odds. For earthquake systems, the "edge" over nature can only exist in the form of a forecast (probability of a future earthquake); a nowcast (knowledge of the current state of an earthquake fault system); or a timecast (statistical estimate of the waiting time until the next major earthquake). In our terminology, a forecast is a model, while the nowcast and timecast are analysis methods using observed data only (no model). We also focus on defined geographic areas rather than on faults, thereby eliminating the need to consider specific fault data or fault interactions. Data used are online earthquake catalogs, generally since 1980. Forecasts are based on the Weibull (1952) probability law, and only a handful of parameters are needed. These methods allow the development of real time hazard and risk estimation using cloud-based technologies, and permit the application of quantitative backtesting techniques. In addition, the similarities to the financial markets point us toward similar hedging strategies to mitigate and manage earthquake risk. [1] https://millervalue.com/?s=earthquakes [2] A.M. Person et al., Phys. Rev. E, 81, 066121, (2010)

Improved Orbit Determination and Forecasts with an Assimilative Tool for Satellite Drag Specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M.; Crowley, G.; Sutton, E.; Codrescu, M.

2016-09-01

Much as aircraft are affected by the prevailing winds and weather conditions in which they fly, satellites are affected by the variability in density and motion of the near earth space environment. Drastic changes in the neutral density of the thermosphere, caused by geomagnetic storms or other phenomena, result in perturbations of LEO satellite motions through drag on the satellite surfaces. This can lead to difficulties in locating important satellites, temporarily losing track of satellites, and errors when predicting collisions in space. As the population of satellites in Earth orbit grows, higher space-weather prediction accuracy is required for critical missions, such as accurate catalog maintenance, collision avoidance for manned and unmanned space flight, reentry prediction, satellite lifetime prediction, defining on-board fuel requirements, and satellite attitude dynamics. We describe ongoing work to build a comprehensive nowcast and forecast system for specifying the neutral atmospheric state related to orbital drag conditions. The system outputs include neutral density, winds, temperature, composition, and the satellite drag derived from these parameters. This modeling tool is based on several state-of-the-art coupled models of the thermosphere-ionosphere as well as several empirical models running in real-time and uses assimilative techniques to produce a thermospheric nowcast. This software will also produce 72 hour predictions of the global thermosphere-ionosphere system using the nowcast as the initial condition and using near real-time and predicted space weather data and indices as the inputs. In this paper, we will review the driving requirements for our model, summarize the model design and assimilative architecture, and present preliminary validation results. Validation results will be presented in the context of satellite orbit errors and compared with several leading atmospheric models. As part of the analysis, we compare the drag observed by a variety of satellites which were not used as part of the assimilation-dataset and whose perigee altitudes span a range from 200 km to 700 km.

An interactive HTML ocean nowcast GUI based on Perl and JavaScript

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakalaukus, Peter J.; Fox, Daniel N.; Louise Perkins, A.; Smedstad, Lucy F.

1999-02-01

We describe the use of Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML), JavaScript code, and Perl I/O to create and validate forms in an Internet-based graphical user interface (GUI) for the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Ocean models and Assimilation Demonstration System (NOMADS). The resulting nowcast system can be operated from any compatible browser across the Internet, for although the GUI was prepared in a Netscape browser, it used no Netscape extensions. Code available at: http://www.iamg.org/CGEditor/index.htm

Location-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Service for Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Wang-chun

2013-04-01

The Hong Kong Observatory has developed the "Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)", a radar-based rainfall nowcasting system originally to support forecasters in rainstorm warning and severe weather forecasting such as hail, lightning and strong wind gusts in Hong Kong. The system has since been extended to provide rainfall nowcast service direct for the public in recent years. Following the launch of "Rainfall Nowcast for the Pearl River Delta Region" service provided via a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform in 2008, a location-based rainfall nowcast service served through "MyObservatory", a smartphone app for iOS and Android developed by the Observatory, debuted in September 2012. The new service takes advantage of the capability of smartphones to detect own locations and utilizes the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from SWIRLS to provide location-based rainfall nowcast to the public. The conversion of radar reflectivity data (at 2 or 3 km above ground) to rainfall in SWIRLS is based on the Z-R relationship (Z=aRb) with dynamical calibration of the coefficients a and b determined using real-time rain gauge data. Adopting the "Multi-scale Optical-flow by Variational Analysis (MOVA)" scheme to track the movement of radar echoes and Semi-Lagrangian Advection (SLA) scheme to extrapolate their movement, the system is capable of producing QPF for the next six hours in a grid of 480 x 480 that covers a domain of 256 km x 256 km once every 6 minutes. Referencing the closest point in a resampled 2-km grid over the territory of Hong Kong, a prediction as to whether there will be rainfall exceeding 0.5 mm in every 30 minute intervals for the next two hours at users' own or designated locations are made available to the users in both textual and graphical format. For those users who have opted to receive notifications, a message would pop up on the user's phone whenever rain is predicted in the next two hours in a user-configurable manner. Verification indicates that the service achieves a detection rate of 76% and a false alarm rate of 26% in the first 30 minute forecast. The skill decreases as the forecast range extends, with the detection rate lowered to 40% and false alarm rate increased to 63% for the two hour forecast. A number of factors affect the accuracy of the forecast, notably the anomalous propagation, the sensitivity and vertical coverage of the radar, as well as the growth and decay of the rain echoes. The service has been gaining popularity rapidly since launch, and has already registered over 12,000 users who have opted for notifications. The successful launch of the location-based rainfall nowcast service in Hong Kong and favourable verification results reveal the high practicality of such services.

Nowcasting and Forecasting the Monthly Food Stamps Data in the US Using Online Search Data

PubMed Central

Fantazzini, Dean

2014-01-01

We propose the use of Google online search data for nowcasting and forecasting the number of food stamps recipients. We perform a large out-of-sample forecasting exercise with almost 3000 competing models with forecast horizons up to 2 years ahead, and we show that models including Google search data statistically outperform the competing models at all considered horizons. These results hold also with several robustness checks, considering alternative keywords, a falsification test, different out-of-samples, directional accuracy and forecasts at the state-level. PMID:25369315

Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and found the statistical range of β values. The observed value of β = 0.83 for the CMT catalog corresponds to a p value of p=0.004 leading us to conclude that the interevent natural times in the CMT catalog are not random. For the time series analysis, we calculated the autocorrelation function for the sequence of natural time intervals between large global earthquakes and again compared with data from 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs of random data. In this case, the spread of autocorrelation values was much larger, so we concluded that this approach is insensitive to deviations from random behavior.

Perspectives of UV nowcasting to monitor personal pro-health outdoor activities.

PubMed

Krzyścin, Janusz W; Lesiak, Aleksandra; Narbutt, Joanna; Sobolewski, Piotr; Guzikowski, Jakub

2018-07-01

Nowcasting model for online monitoring of personal outdoor behaviour is proposed. It is envisaged that it will provide an effective e-tool used by smartphone users. The model could estimate maximum duration of safe (without erythema risk) outdoor activity. Moreover, there are options to estimate duration of sunbathing to get adequate amount of vitamin D 3 and doses necessary for the antipsoriatic heliotherapy. The application requires information of starting time of sunbathing and the user's phototype. At the beginning the user will be informed of the approximate duration of sunbathing required to get the minimum erythemal dose, adequate amount of vitamin D 3 , and the dose necessary for the antipsoriatic heliotherapy. After every 20-min the application will recalculate the remaining duration of sunbathing based on the UVI measured in the preceding 20 min. If the estimate of remaining duration is <20 min the user will be informed that the deadline of sunbathing is approaching. Finally, a warning signal will be sent to stop sunbathing if the measured dose reaches the required dose. The proposed model is verified using the data collected at two measuring sites for the warm period of 2017 (1st April-30th September) in large Polish cities (Warsaw and Lodz). First instrument represents the UVI monitoring station. The information concerning sunbathing duration, which is sent to a remote user, is evaluated on the basis of the UVI measurements collected by the second measuring unit in a distance of ~7 km and 10 km for Warsaw and Lodz, respectively. The statistical analysis of the differences between sunbathing duration by nowcasting model and observation shows that the model provides reliable doses received by the users during outdoor activities in proximity (~10 km) to the UVI source site. Standard 24 h UVI forecast based on prognostic values of total ozone and cloudiness appears to only be valid for sunny days. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nowcasting and forecasting of lightning activity: the Talos project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagouvardos, Kostas; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Kazadzis, Stelios; Giannaros, Theodore; Karagiannidis, Athanassios; Galanaki, Elissavet; Proestakis, Emmanouil

2015-04-01

Thunder And Lightning Observing System (TALOS) is a research program funded by the Greek Ministry of Education with the aim to promote excellence in the field of lightning meteorology. The study focuses on exploring the real-time observations provided by the ZEUS lightning detection system, operated by the National Observatory of Athens since 2005, as well as the 10-year long database of the same system. More precisely the main research issues explored are: - lightning climatology over the Mediterranean focusing on lightning spatial and temporal distribution, on the relation of lightning with topographical features and instability and on the importance of aerosols in lightning initiation and enhancement. - nowcasting of lightning activity over Greece, with emphasis on the operational aspects of this endeavour. The nowcasting tool is based on the use of lightning data complemented by high-time resolution METEOSAT imagery. - forecasting of lightning activity over Greece based on the use of WRF numerical weather prediction model. - assimilation of lightning with the aim to improve the model precipitation forecast skill. In the frame of this presentation the main findings of each of the aforementioned issues are highlighted.

Status of the Polar Engineering Development Center's (PEDC) Open-Closed Boundary Synoptic Nowcast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerrard, A. J.; Kim, H.

2017-12-01

We present the most recent Polar Engineering Development Center (PEDC) developments, specifically the first magnetic-field open-closed boundary (OCB) determination scheme. This scheme is implemented in "near real time" and utilizes data from an array of fluxgate magnetometers that are distributed across the high Antarctic plateau, as per Urban et al. [2012]. This OCB determination enables a high-latitude, synoptic measure of space weather variability that provides for more regional determinations of particle precipitation and related impacts. This methodology therefore supplements exciting "index-based" or empically-based space weather nowcasts currently in use.

Storm Motion Tracking Over The Arno River Basin Through Multiscale Radar Reflectivity Classification and Correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Facheris, L.; Tanelli, S.; Giuli, D.

A method is presented for analyzing the storm motion through the application of a nowcasting technique based on radar echoes tracking through multiscale correlation. The application of the correlation principle to weather radar image processing - the so called TREC (Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation) and derived algorithms - is de- scribed in [1] and in references cited therein. The block matching approach exploited there is typical of video compression applications, whose purpose is to remove the temporal correlation between two subsequent frames of a sequence of images. In par- ticular, the wavelet decomposition approach to motion estimation seems particularly suitable for weather radar maps. In fact, block matching is particularly efficient when the images have a sufficient level of contrast. Though this does not hold for original resolution radar maps, it can be easily obtained by changing the resolution level by means of the wavelet decomposition. The technique first proposed in [2] (TREMC - Tracking of Radar Echoes by means of Multiscale Correlation) adopts a multiscale, multiresolution, and partially overlapped, block grid which adapts to the radar reflec- tivity pattern. Multiresolution decomposition is performed through 2D wavelet based filtering. Correlation coefficients are calculated taking after preliminary screening of unreliable data (e.g. those affected by ground clutter or beam shielding), so as to avoid strong undesired motion estimation biases due to the presence of stationary features. Such features are detected by a previous analysis carried out as discussed in [2]. In this paper, motion fields obtained by analyzing precipitation events over the Arno river basin are compared to the related Doppler velocity fields in order to identify growth and decay areas and orographic effects. Data presented have been collected by the weather radar station POLAR 55C sited in Montagnana (Firenze-Italy), a polarimetric C-band system providing absolute and differential reflectivity maps, mean Doppler velocity and Doppler spread maps with a resolution of 125/250 m [3]. [1] Li L. Schmid W. and Joss J., Nowcasting of motion and growth of precipitation with radar over a complex orography Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 34, pp. 1286-1300, 1995. [2] L.Facheris, S. Tanelli, F. Argenti, D.Giuli, SWavelet Applica- & cedil;tions to Multiparameter Weather Radar AnalysisT, to be published on SInformation & cedil;Processing for Remote SensingT, Prof. C.H. Chen Ed. for World Scientific Publish- 1 ing Co., pagg. 187-207, 1999 [3] Scarchilli G. Gorgucci E. Giuli D. Facheris L. Freni A. and Vezzani G., Arno Project: Radar System and objectives., Proceedings 25th In- ternational Conference on Radar Meteorology, Paris, France, 24-28 June 1991, pp. 805-808 2

Multifunctional Mesoscale Observing Networks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabberdt, Walter F.; Schlatter, Thomas W.; Carr, Frederick H.; Friday, Elbert W. Joe; Jorgensen, David; Koch, Steven; Pirone, Maria; Ralph, F. Martin; Sun, Juanzhen; Welsh, Patrick; Wilson, James W.; Zou, Xiaolei

2005-07-01

More than 120 scientists, engineers, administrators, and users met on 8 10 December 2003 in a workshop format to discuss the needs for enhanced three-dimensional mesoscale observing networks. Improved networks are seen as being critical to advancing numerical and empirical modeling for a variety of mesoscale applications, including severe weather warnings and forecasts, hydrology, air-quality forecasting, chemical emergency response, transportation safety, energy management, and others. The participants shared a clear and common vision for the observing requirements: existing two-dimensional mesoscale measurement networks do not provide observations of the type, frequency, and density that are required to optimize mesoscale prediction and nowcasts. To be viable, mesoscale observing networks must serve multiple applications, and the public, private, and academic sectors must all actively participate in their design and implementation, as well as in the creation and delivery of value-added products. The mesoscale measurement challenge can best be met by an integrated approach that considers all elements of an end-to-end solution—identifying end users and their needs, designing an optimal mix of observations, defining the balance between static and dynamic (targeted or adaptive) sampling strategies, establishing long-term test beds, and developing effective implementation strategies. Detailed recommendations are provided pertaining to nowcasting, numerical prediction and data assimilation, test beds, and implementation strategies.

Toward seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting over Europe based on radar nowcasting and NWP: An evaluation with case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Shinju; Berenguer, Marc; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Baugh, Calum; Smith, Paul

2017-04-01

Flash floods induced by heavy rain are one of the hazardous natural events that significantly affect human lives. Because flash floods are characterized by their rapid onset, forecasting flash flood to lead an effective response requires accurate rainfall predictions with high spatial and temporal resolution and adequate representation of the hydrologic and hydraulic processes within a catchment that determine rainfall-runoff accumulations. We present extreme flash flood cases which occurred throughout Europe in 2015-2016 that were identified and forecasted by two real-time approaches: 1) the European Rainfall-Induced Hazard Assessment System (ERICHA) and 2) the European Runoff Index based on Climatology (ERIC). ERICHA is based on the nowcasts of accumulated precipitation generated from the pan-European radar composites produced by the EUMETNET project OPERA. It has the advantage of high-resolution precipitation inputs and rapidly updated forecasts (every 15 minutes), but limited forecast lead time (up to 8 hours). ERIC, on the other hand, provides 5-day forecasts based on the COSMO-LEPS NWP simulations updated 2 times a day but is only produced at a 7 km resolution. We compare the products from both systems and focus on showing the advantages, limitations and complementarities of ERICHA and ERIC for seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting.

Use of predictive models and rapid methods to nowcast bacteria levels at coastal beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.

2009-01-01

The need for rapid assessments of recreational water quality to better protect public health is well accepted throughout the research and regulatory communities. Rapid analytical methods, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and immunomagnetic separation/adenosine triphosphate (ATP) analysis, are being tested but are not yet ready for widespread use.Another solution is the use of predictive models, wherein variable(s) that are easily and quickly measured are surrogates for concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria. Rainfall-based alerts, the simplest type of model, have been used by several communities for a number of years. Deterministic models use mathematical representations of the processes that affect bacteria concentrations; this type of model is being used for beach-closure decisions at one location in the USA. Multivariable statistical models are being developed and tested in many areas of the USA; however, they are only used in three areas of the Great Lakes to aid in notifications of beach advisories or closings. These “operational” statistical models can result in more accurate assessments of recreational water quality than use of the previous day's Escherichia coli (E. coli)concentration as determined by traditional culture methods. The Ohio Nowcast, at Huntington Beach, Bay Village, Ohio, is described in this paper as an example of an operational statistical model. Because predictive modeling is a dynamic process, water-resource managers continue to collect additional data to improve the predictive ability of the nowcast and expand the nowcast to other Ohio beaches and a recreational river. Although predictive models have been shown to work well at some beaches and are becoming more widely accepted, implementation in many areas is limited by funding, lack of coordinated technical leadership, and lack of supporting epidemiological data.

Development and verification of a real-time stochastic precipitation nowcasting system for urban hydrology in Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foresti, L.; Reyniers, M.; Seed, A.; Delobbe, L.

2016-01-01

The Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) is implemented in real-time at the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) of Belgium. The main idea behind STEPS is to quantify the forecast uncertainty by adding stochastic perturbations to the deterministic Lagrangian extrapolation of radar images. The stochastic perturbations are designed to account for the unpredictable precipitation growth and decay processes and to reproduce the dynamic scaling of precipitation fields, i.e., the observation that large-scale rainfall structures are more persistent and predictable than small-scale convective cells. This paper presents the development, adaptation and verification of the STEPS system for Belgium (STEPS-BE). STEPS-BE provides in real-time 20-member ensemble precipitation nowcasts at 1 km and 5 min resolutions up to 2 h lead time using a 4 C-band radar composite as input. In the context of the PLURISK project, STEPS forecasts were generated to be used as input in sewer system hydraulic models for nowcasting urban inundations in the cities of Ghent and Leuven. Comprehensive forecast verification was performed in order to detect systematic biases over the given urban areas and to analyze the reliability of probabilistic forecasts for a set of case studies in 2013 and 2014. The forecast biases over the cities of Leuven and Ghent were found to be small, which is encouraging for future integration of STEPS nowcasts into the hydraulic models. Probabilistic forecasts of exceeding 0.5 mm h-1 are reliable up to 60-90 min lead time, while the ones of exceeding 5.0 mm h-1 are only reliable up to 30 min. The STEPS ensembles are slightly under-dispersive and represent only 75-90 % of the forecast errors.

Development and verification of a real-time stochastic precipitation nowcasting system for urban hydrology in Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foresti, L.; Reyniers, M.; Seed, A.; Delobbe, L.

2015-07-01

The Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) is implemented in real-time at the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) of Belgium. The main idea behind STEPS is to quantify the forecast uncertainty by adding stochastic perturbations to the deterministic Lagrangian extrapolation of radar images. The stochastic perturbations are designed to account for the unpredictable precipitation growth and decay processes and to reproduce the dynamic scaling of precipitation fields, i.e. the observation that large scale rainfall structures are more persistent and predictable than small scale convective cells. This paper presents the development, adaptation and verification of the system STEPS for Belgium (STEPS-BE). STEPS-BE provides in real-time 20 member ensemble precipitation nowcasts at 1 km and 5 min resolution up to 2 h lead time using a 4 C-band radar composite as input. In the context of the PLURISK project, STEPS forecasts were generated to be used as input in sewer system hydraulic models for nowcasting urban inundations in the cities of Ghent and Leuven. Comprehensive forecast verification was performed in order to detect systematic biases over the given urban areas and to analyze the reliability of probabilistic forecasts for a set of case studies in 2013 and 2014. The forecast biases over the cities of Leuven and Ghent were found to be small, which is encouraging for future integration of STEPS nowcasts into the hydraulic models. Probabilistic forecasts of exceeding 0.5 mm h-1 are reliable up to 60-90 min lead time, while the ones of exceeding 5.0 mm h-1 are only reliable up to 30 min. The STEPS ensembles are slightly under-dispersive and represent only 80-90 % of the forecast errors.

Observing convection with satellite, radar, and lightning measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamann, Ulrich; Nisi, Luca; Clementi, Lorenzo; Ventura, Jordi Figueras i.; Gabella, Marco; Hering, Alessandro M.; Sideris, Ioannis; Trefalt, Simona; Germann, Urs

2015-04-01

Heavy precipitation, hail, and wind gusts are the fundamental meteorological hazards associated with strong convection and thunderstorms. The thread is particularly severe in mountainous areas, e.g. it is estimated that on average between 50% and 80% of all weather-related damage in Switzerland is caused by strong thunderstorms (Hilker et al., 2010). Intense atmospheric convection is governed by processes that range from the synoptic to the microphysical scale and are considered to be one of the most challenging and difficult weather phenomena to predict. Even though numerical weather prediction models have some skills to predict convection, in general the exact location of the convective initialization and its propagation cannot be forecasted by these models with sufficient precision. Hence, there is a strong interest to improve the short-term forecast by using statistical, object oriented and/or heuristic nowcasting methods. MeteoSwiss has developed several operational nowcasting systems for this purpose such as TRT (Hering, 2008) and COALITION (Nisi, 2014). In this contribution we analyze the typical development of convection using measurements of the Swiss C-band Dual Polarization Doppler weather radar network, the MSG SEVIRI satellite, and the Météorage lighting network. The observations are complemented with the analysis and forecasts of the COSMO model. Special attention is given to the typical evolutionary stages like the pre-convective environment, convective initiation, cloud top glaciation, start, maximum, and end of precipitation and lightning activity. The pre-convective environment is examined using instability indices derived from SEVIRI observations and the COSMO forecasts. During the early development satellite observations are used to observe the rise of the cloud top, the growth of the cloud droplet or crystals, and the glaciation of the cloud top. SEVIRI brightness temperatures, channel differences, and temporal trends as suggested by Mecikalski et al. (2010) are used to identify convectively active regions. Additionally, retrieved physical cloud properties of state-of-the-art cloud remote sensing algorithms such as the cloud top height, multilayer flags, cloud phase, optical depth and effective radius are employed. As soon as larger particles form, radar observations complement the satellite ones. Radar datasets are used in particular to observe the precipitation intensity and type, the vertical extension and structure of the convective cells. In the mature stage convective cells might start to produce lightning. The relation between the different observables and their suitability as predictors for the further convective development are discussed, e.g. strong updrafts in the developing phase are often followed by fast anvil spreading and intense precipitation in the mature phase. Threads and hazards due to heavy precipitation, hail, and wind gusts are estimated. Hering, A. M., Germann, U., Boscacci, M., Sénési, S., 2008: Operational nowcasting of thunderstorms in the Alps during MAP D-PHASE. In Proceedings of 5th European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology (ERAD), 30 June - 4 July 2008, Helsinki, Finland. 1-5. Copernicus: Göttingen, Germany. Hilker, N., Badoux, A., Hegg, C., 2010: Unwetterschäden in der Schweiz im Jahre 2009. Wasser Energ. Luft 102: 1-6 (in German). Mecikalski, J. R., Mackenzie, W. M., König, M., Muller, S. 2010: Use of Meteosat Second Generation infrared data in 0-1 hour convective initiation nowcasting. Part 1. Infrared fields. J. Appl. Meteorol. 49: 521-534. Nisi, L., Ambrosetti, P., Clementi, L., 2014: Nowcasting severe convection in the Alpine region: the COALITION approach. QJRMT, 140, 682, 1684-1699, DOI: 10.1002/qj.2249

Nowcasting Unemployment Rates with Google Searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries

PubMed Central

Pavlicek, Jaroslav; Kristoufek, Ladislav

2015-01-01

The online activity of Internet users has repeatedly been shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather small economies, the online searches of inhabitants can be successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study unemployment rates and their interconnection with job-related searches. We show that Google searches enhance nowcasting models of unemployment rates for the Czech Republic and Hungary whereas for Poland and Slovakia, the results are mixed. PMID:26001083

Nowcasting unemployment rates with Google searches: evidence from the Visegrad Group countries.

PubMed

Pavlicek, Jaroslav; Kristoufek, Ladislav

2015-01-01

The online activity of Internet users has repeatedly been shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group--the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather small economies, the online searches of inhabitants can be successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study unemployment rates and their interconnection with job-related searches. We show that Google searches enhance nowcasting models of unemployment rates for the Czech Republic and Hungary whereas for Poland and Slovakia, the results are mixed.

Leveraging Past and Current Measurements to Probabilistically Nowcast Low Visibility Procedures at an Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayr, G. J.; Kneringer, P.; Dietz, S. J.; Zeileis, A.

2016-12-01

Low visibility or low cloud ceiling reduce the capacity of airports by requiring special low visibility procedures (LVP) for incoming/departing aircraft. Probabilistic forecasts when such procedures will become necessary help to mitigate delays and economic losses.We compare the performance of probabilistic nowcasts with two statistical methods: ordered logistic regression, and trees and random forests. These models harness historic and current meteorological measurements in the vicinity of the airport and LVP states, and incorporate diurnal and seasonal climatological information via generalized additive models (GAM). The methods are applied at Vienna International Airport (Austria). The performance is benchmarked against climatology, persistence and human forecasters.

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mecikalski, John; Jewett, Chris; Carey, Larry; Zavodsky, Brad; Stano, Geoffrey; Chronis, Themis

2015-01-01

Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.

Real-time validation of the Dst Predictor model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCollough, James P.; Young, Shawn L.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Simpson, Hal A.

2015-01-01

The Dst Predictor model, which has been running real-time in the Space Weather Analysis and Forecast System (SWAFS), provides 1-hour and 4-hour forecasts of the Dst index. This is useful for awareness of impending geomagnetic activity, as well as driving other real-time models that use Dst as an input. In this report, we examine the performance of this forecast model in detail. When validating indices it should be noted that performance is only with respect to a reference index as they are derived quantities assumed to reflect a state of the magnetosphere that cannot be directly measured. In this case U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Definitive Dst is the reference index (Section 3). Whether or not the model better reflects the actual activity level is nearly impossible to discern and is outside the scope of this report. We evaluate the performance of the model by computing continuous predictant skill scores against USGS Definitive Dst values as “observations” (Section 4.2). The two sets of data are not well-correlated for both 1-hour and 4-hour forecasts. The Dst Predictor Prediction Efficiency for both the 1- and 4-hour forecasts suggests poor performance versus the climatological mean. However, the skill score against a nowcast persistence model is positive, suggesting value added by the Dst Predictor model. We further examine statistics for storm times (Section 4.3) with similar results: nowcast persistence performs worse than Dst Predictor.  Dst Predictor is superior to the nowcast persistence model for the metric used in this study. We recommend continued use of the DstPredictor model for 1-and4-hour Dst predictions along with active study of other Dst forecast models that do not rely on nowcast inputs (Section 6). The lack of certified requirements makes further recommendations difficult. A study of how the error in Dst translates to error in models and a better understanding of operational needs for magnetic storm warning are needed to determine such requirements. Nowcast persistence is often hard to beat for short term forecasts and specification and Dst Predictor clearly performs well against that standard (with 1-hour and 4-hour skill-scores of 0.233 and 0.485 respectively), although poor in absolute terms (with1-hourand4-hour prediction efficiencies of-64.6and-43.1, respectively).

A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan

2015-04-01

Offshore oil and gas operations in South East Asia periodically face extended downtime due to unpredictable weather conditions, including squalls that are accompanied by strong winds, thunder, and heavy rains. This downtime results in financial losses. Hence, a real time weather risk advisory system is developed to provide the offshore Oil and Gas (O&G) industry specific weather warnings in support of safety and environment security. This system provides safe operating windows based on sensitivity of offshore operations to sea state. Information products for safety and security include area of squall occurrence for the next 24 hours, time before squall strike, and heavy sea state warning for the next 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. These are predicted using radar now-cast, high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Data Assimilation (DA). Radar based now-casting leverages the radar data to produce short term (up to 3 hours) predictions of severe weather events including squalls/thunderstorms. A sea state approximation is provided through developing a translational model based on these predictions to risk rank the sensitivity of operations. A high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF, an open source NWP model) is developed for offshore Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. This high resolution model is optimized and validated against the adaptation of temperate to tropical met-ocean parameterization. This locally specific parameters are calibrated against federated data to achieve a 24 hour forecast of high resolution Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). CAPE is being used as a proxy for the risk of squall occurrence. Spectral decomposition is used to blend the outputs of the now-cast and the forecast in order to assimilate near real time weather observations as an implementation of the integration of data sources. This system uses the now-cast for the first 3 hours and then the forecast prediction horizons of 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. The output is a 24 hour window of high resolution/accuracy forecasts leveraging available data-model integration and CAPE prediction. The systems includes dissemination of WRF outputs over the World Wide Web. Components of the system (including WRF computational engine and results dissemination modules) are deployed in to computational cloud. This approach tends to increase system robustness and sustainability. The creation of such a system to share information between the public and private sectors and across territorial boundaries is an important step towards the next generation of governance for climate risk and extreme weather offshore. The system benefits offshore operators by reducing downtime related to accidents and incidents; eliminate unnecessary hiring costs related to waiting on weather; and improve the efficiency and planning of transport and logistics by providing a rolling weather risk advisory.

GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Ou, Mi-Lim

2004-01-01

This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in ths direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated diabatic heating during the early stages of a forecast period. This procedure is expected to enhance details in the moisture field during model integration, and thus improve spinup performance, assuming the errors in the future time latent heating data ate less than intrinsic model background errors.

An operational integrated short-term warning solution for solar radiation storms: introducing the Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Georgoulis, Manolis; Tziotziou, Kostas; Jiggens, Piers; Hilgers, Alain

2015-04-01

We present a novel integrated prediction system, of both solar flares and solar energetic particle (SEP) events, which is in place to provide short-term warnings for hazardous solar radiation storms. FORSPEF system provides forecasting of solar eruptive events, such as solar flares with a projection to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (occurrence and velocity) and the likelihood of occurrence of a SEP event. It also provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual solar flare and CME near real-time alerts, as well as SEP characteristics (peak flux, fluence, rise time, duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of solar flares relies on a morphological method which is based on the sophisticated derivation of the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff) of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations and it utilizes analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events a new reductive statistical method has been implemented based on a newly constructed database of solar flares, CMEs and SEP events that covers a large time span from 1984-2013. The method is based on flare location (longitude), flare size (maximum soft X-ray intensity), and the occurrence (or not) of a CME. Warnings are issued for all > C1.0 soft X-ray flares. The warning time in the forecasting scheme extends to 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours while the respective warning time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and falls between 15-20 minutes. We discuss the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection and the operational set up. The dual approach in the development of FORPSEF (i.e. forecasting and nowcasting scheme) permits the refinement of predictions upon the availability of new data that characterize changes on the Sun and the interplanetary space, while the combined usage of solar flare and SEP forecasting methods upgrades FORSPEF to an integrated forecasting solution. This work has been funded through the "FORSPEF: FORecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares", ESA Contract No. 4000109641/13/NL/AK

Aircraft laser sensing of sound velocity in water - Brillouin scattering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hickman, G. D.; Harding, John M.; Carnes, Michael; Pressman, AL; Kattawar, George W.; Fry, Edward S.

1991-01-01

A real-time data source for sound speed in the upper 100 m has been proposed for exploratory development. This data source is planned to be generated via a ship- or aircraft-mounted optical pulsed laser using the spontaneous Brillouin scattering technique. The system should be capable (from a single 10 ns 500 mJ pulse) of yielding range resolved sound speed profiles in water to depths of 75-100 m to an accuracy of 1 m/s. The 100 m profiles will provide the capability of rapidly monitoring the upper-ocean vertical structure. They will also provide an extensive, subsurface-data source for existing real-time, operational ocean nowcast/forecast systems.

Building the Sun4Cast System: Improvements in Solar Power Forecasting

DOE PAGES

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko; Jensen, Tara; ...

2017-06-16

The Sun4Cast System results from a research-to-operations project built on a value chain approach, and benefiting electric utilities’ customers, society, and the environment by improving state-of-the-science solar power forecasting capabilities. As integration of solar power into the national electric grid rapidly increases, it becomes imperative to improve forecasting of this highly variable renewable resource. Thus, a team of researchers from public, private, and academic sectors partnered to develop and assess a new solar power forecasting system, Sun4Cast. The partnership focused on improving decision-making for utilities and independent system operators, ultimately resulting in improved grid stability and cost savings for consumers.more » The project followed a value chain approach to determine key research and technology needs to reach desired results. Sun4Cast integrates various forecasting technologies across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales to predict surface solar irradiance. Anchoring the system is WRF-Solar, a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model optimized for solar irradiance prediction. Forecasts from multiple NWP models are blended via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) System, the basis of the system beyond about 6 h. For short-range (0-6 h) forecasts, Sun4Cast leverages several observation-based nowcasting technologies. These technologies are blended via the Nowcasting Expert System Integrator (NESI). The NESI and DICast systems are subsequently blended to produce short to mid-term irradiance forecasts for solar array locations. The irradiance forecasts are translated into power with uncertainties quantified using an analog ensemble approach, and are provided to the industry partners for real-time decision-making. The Sun4Cast system ran operationally throughout 2015 and results were assessed. As a result, this paper analyzes the collaborative design process, discusses the project results, and provides recommendations for best-practice solar forecasting.« less

Building the Sun4Cast System: Improvements in Solar Power Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko; Jensen, Tara

The Sun4Cast System results from a research-to-operations project built on a value chain approach, and benefiting electric utilities’ customers, society, and the environment by improving state-of-the-science solar power forecasting capabilities. As integration of solar power into the national electric grid rapidly increases, it becomes imperative to improve forecasting of this highly variable renewable resource. Thus, a team of researchers from public, private, and academic sectors partnered to develop and assess a new solar power forecasting system, Sun4Cast. The partnership focused on improving decision-making for utilities and independent system operators, ultimately resulting in improved grid stability and cost savings for consumers.more » The project followed a value chain approach to determine key research and technology needs to reach desired results. Sun4Cast integrates various forecasting technologies across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales to predict surface solar irradiance. Anchoring the system is WRF-Solar, a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model optimized for solar irradiance prediction. Forecasts from multiple NWP models are blended via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) System, the basis of the system beyond about 6 h. For short-range (0-6 h) forecasts, Sun4Cast leverages several observation-based nowcasting technologies. These technologies are blended via the Nowcasting Expert System Integrator (NESI). The NESI and DICast systems are subsequently blended to produce short to mid-term irradiance forecasts for solar array locations. The irradiance forecasts are translated into power with uncertainties quantified using an analog ensemble approach, and are provided to the industry partners for real-time decision-making. The Sun4Cast system ran operationally throughout 2015 and results were assessed. As a result, this paper analyzes the collaborative design process, discusses the project results, and provides recommendations for best-practice solar forecasting.« less

Interactions Between Convective Storms and Their Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, R. A.; Hoxit, L. R.; Chappell, C. F.

1979-01-01

The ways in which intense convective storms interact with their environment are considered for a number of specific severe storm situations. A physical model of subcloud wind fields and vertical wind profiles was developed to explain the often observed intensification of convective storms that move along or across thermal boundaries. A number of special, unusually dense, data sets were used to substantiate features of the model. GOES imagery was used in conjunction with objectively analyzed surface wind data to develop a nowcast technique that might be used to identify specific storm cells likely to become tornadic. It was shown that circulations associated with organized meso-alpha and meso-beta scale storm complexes may, on occasion, strongly modify tropospheric thermodynamic patterns and flow fields.

Improving the twilight model for polar cap absorption nowcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, N. C.; Kero, A.; Honary, F.; Verronen, P. T.; Warrington, E. M.; Danskin, D. W.

2016-11-01

During solar proton events (SPE), energetic protons ionize the polar mesosphere causing HF radio wave attenuation, more strongly on the dayside where the effective recombination coefficient, αeff, is low. Polar cap absorption models predict the 30 MHz cosmic noise absorption, A, measured by riometers, based on real-time measurements of the integrated proton flux-energy spectrum, J. However, empirical models in common use cannot account for regional and day-to-day variations in the daytime and nighttime profiles of αeff(z) or the related sensitivity parameter, m=A>/&sqrt;J. Large prediction errors occur during twilight when m changes rapidly, and due to errors locating the rigidity cutoff latitude. Modeling the twilight change in m as a linear or Gauss error-function transition over a range of solar-zenith angles (χl < χ < χu) provides a better fit to measurements than selecting day or night αeff profiles based on the Earth-shadow height. Optimal model parameters were determined for several polar cap riometers for large SPEs in 1998-2005. The optimal χl parameter was found to be most variable, with smaller values (as low as 60°) postsunrise compared with presunset and with positive correlation between riometers over a wide area. Day and night values of m exhibited higher correlation for closely spaced riometers. A nowcast simulation is presented in which rigidity boundary latitude and twilight model parameters are optimized by assimilating age-weighted measurements from 25 riometers. The technique reduces model bias, and root-mean-square errors are reduced by up to 30% compared with a model employing no riometer data assimilation.

Radiation dose predictions for SPE events during solar cycle 23 from NASA's Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Christopher; Blattnig, Steve; Slaba, Tony; Kress, Brian; Wiltberger, Michael; Solomon, Stan

NASA's High Charge and Energy Transport (HZETRN) code is a deterministic model for rapid and accurate calculations of the particle radiation fields in the space environment. HZETRN is used to calculate dosimetric quantities on the International Space Station (ISS) and assess astronaut risk to space radiations, including realistic spacecraft and human geometry for final exposure evaluation. HZETRN is used as an engineering design tool for materials research for radiation shielding protection. Moreover, it is used to calculate HZE propagation through the Earth and Martian atmospheres, and to evaluate radiation exposures for epidemiological studies. A new research project has begun that will use HZETRN as the transport engine for the development of a nowcast prediction of air-crew radiation exposure for both background galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure and radiation exposure during solar particle events (SPE) that may accompany solar storms. The new air-crew radiation exposure model is called the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model, which utilizes real-time observations from ground-based, atmospheric, and satellite measurements. In this paper, we compute the global distribution of atmospheric radiation dose for several SPE events during solar cycle 23, with particular emphasis on the high-latitude and polar region. We also characterize the suppression of the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity during these storm periods and their subsequent influence on atmospheric radiation exposure.

Nowcasting of Lightning-Related Accidents in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ihrlich, Laura; Price, Colin

2016-04-01

Tropical Africa is the world capital of thunderstorm activity with the highest density of strikes per square kilometer per year. As a result it is also the continent with perhaps the highest casualties and injuries from direct lightning strikes. This region of the globe also has little lightning protection of rural homes and schools, while many casualties occur during outdoor activities (e.g. farming, fishing, sports, etc.) In this study we investigated two lightning-caused accidents that got wide press coverage: A lightning strike to a Cheetah Center in Namibia which caused a huge fire and great destruction (16 October 2013), and a plane crash in Mali where 116 people died (24 July 2014). Using data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) we show that the lightning data alone can provide important early warning information that can be used to reduce risks and damages and loss of life from lightning strikes. We have developed a now-casting scheme that allows for early warnings across Africa with a relatively low false alarm rate. To verify the accuracy of our now-cast, we have performed some statistical analysis showing relatively high skill at providing early warnings (lead time of a few hours) based on lightning alone. Furthermore, our analysis can be used in forensic meteorology for determining if such accidents are caused by lightning strikes.

Aurorasaurus: Citizen Scientists Experiencing Extremes of Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, E.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.

2013-12-01

Aurorasaurus is a new citizen science mapping platform to nowcast the visibility of the Northern Lights for the public in the current solar maximum, the first with social media. As a recently funded NSF INSPIRE program, we have joint goals among three research disciplines: space weather forecasting, the study of human-computer interactions, and informal science education. We will highlight results from the prototype www.aurorasaurus.org and outline future efforts to motivate online participants and crowdsource viable data. Our citizen science effort is unique among space programs as it includes both reporting observations and data analysis activities to engage the broadest participant network possible. In addition, our efforts to improve space weather nowcasting by including real-time mapping of ground truth observers for rare, sporadic events are a first in the field.

Evaluation of radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts to prevent flash flood in real time by using a road submersion warning tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Sempere-Torres, Daniel

2010-05-01

Important damages occur in small headwater catchments when they are hit by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal structure, sometimes resulting in flash floods. As these catchments are mostly not covered by sensor networks, it is difficult to forecast these floods. This is particularly true for road submersions. These are major concerns for flood event managers. The use of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts (QPE/QPF) especially based on radar measurements could particularly be adequate to evaluate rainfall-induced risks. Although their characteristic time and space scales would make them suitable for flash flood modelling, the impact of their uncertainties remain uncertain and have to be evaluated. The Gard region (France) has been chosen as case study. This area is frequently affected by severe flash floods and different kinds of rainfall observations are available in real time: radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts from METEO FRANCE and the CALAMAR system from SPC (state authority in charge of flood forecasting). An application devoted to the road network, has also been recently developed for this region. It combines distributed hydro-meteorological very short range forecasts and vulnerability analysis to provide warnings of road submersions. The first results demonstrate that it is technically possible to provide distributed short-term forecasts for a large number of sites. The study also demonstrates that a reliable estimation of the spatial distribution of rainfall is essential. For this reason, the road submersion warning system can be used to evaluate the quality of rainfall estimates and nowcasts. The warning system has been tested on the specific storm of the 29-30 September 2007. During this event, more than 300mm dropped on the South part of the Gard and many roads were submerged. Each of the mentioned rainfall datasets (i.e. estimates and nowcasts) was available in real time. They have been used to forecast the exact location of road submersions and the results have been compared to the effective road submersions actually occurred during the event as listed by the emergency services. The results confirm that the road submersion warning system represents a promising tool for anticipating and quantifying the consequences of storm events at ground. It rates the submersion risk with an acceptable level of accuracy and a reasonable false alarm ratio. It demonstrates also the quality of high spatial and temporal resolution radar rainfall data in real time, and the possibility to use them despite their uncertainties. However because of the quality of rainfall nowcasts falls drastically with time, it is not often sufficient to provide valuable information for lead times exceeding one hour.

Neural network cloud top pressure and height for MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Håkansson, Nina; Adok, Claudia; Thoss, Anke; Scheirer, Ronald; Hörnquist, Sara

2018-06-01

Cloud top height retrieval from imager instruments is important for nowcasting and for satellite climate data records. A neural network approach for cloud top height retrieval from the imager instrument MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) is presented. The neural networks are trained using cloud top layer pressure data from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) dataset. Results are compared with two operational reference algorithms for cloud top height: the MODIS Collection 6 Level 2 height product and the cloud top temperature and height algorithm in the 2014 version of the NWC SAF (EUMETSAT (European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) Satellite Application Facility on Support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting) PPS (Polar Platform System). All three techniques are evaluated using both CALIOP and CPR (Cloud Profiling Radar for CloudSat (CLOUD SATellite)) height. Instruments like AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) contain fewer channels useful for cloud top height retrievals than MODIS, therefore several different neural networks are investigated to test how infrared channel selection influences retrieval performance. Also a network with only channels available for the AVHRR1 instrument is trained and evaluated. To examine the contribution of different variables, networks with fewer variables are trained. It is shown that variables containing imager information for neighboring pixels are very important. The error distributions of the involved cloud top height algorithms are found to be non-Gaussian. Different descriptive statistic measures are presented and it is exemplified that bias and SD (standard deviation) can be misleading for non-Gaussian distributions. The median and mode are found to better describe the tendency of the error distributions and IQR (interquartile range) and MAE (mean absolute error) are found to give the most useful information of the spread of the errors. For all descriptive statistics presented MAE, IQR, RMSE (root mean square error), SD, mode, median, bias and percentage of absolute errors above 0.25, 0.5, 1 and 2 km the neural network perform better than the reference algorithms both validated with CALIOP and CPR (CloudSat). The neural networks using the brightness temperatures at 11 and 12 µm show at least 32 % (or 623 m) lower MAE compared to the two operational reference algorithms when validating with CALIOP height. Validation with CPR (CloudSat) height gives at least 25 % (or 430 m) reduction of MAE.

Inter-Comparison of GOES-8 Imager and Sounder Skin Temperature Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haines, Stephanie L.; Suggs, Ronnie J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Skin temperature (ST) retrievals derived from geostationary satellite observations have both high temporal and spatial resolutions and are therefore useful for applications such as assimilation into mesoscale forecast models, nowcasting, and diagnostic studies. Our retrieval method uses a Physical Split Window technique requiring at least two channels within the longwave infrared window. On current GOES satellites, including GOES-11, there are two Imager channels within the required spectral interval. However, beginning with the GOES-M satellite the 12-um channel will be removed, leaving only one longwave channel. The Sounder instrument will continue to have three channels within the longwave window, and therefore ST retrievals will be derived from Sounder measurements. This research compares retrievals from the two instruments and evaluates the effects of the spatial resolution and sensor calibration differences on the retrievals. Both Imager and Sounder retrievals are compared to ground-truth data to evaluate the overall accuracy of the technique. An analysis of GOES-8 and GOES-11 intercomparisons is also presented.

Development of the nowcasting system for the XVII Asiad at Korea Meteorological Administration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Kyungjeen; Kim, Juwon; Jang, Taekyu; Hwang, Seung On; Park, Yunho; Kim, Yoonjae; Park, Seonjoo; Joo, Sangwon; Noh, Hae Mi

2014-05-01

The XVII Asiad, known as the 2014 Asian game, is the largest sporting event in Asia. It will be held in Incheon, South Korea from September 19 to October 4, with 437 events in 36 sports. To support this game, Korea Meteorological Administration developed Incheon Data Assimilation and Prediction System (IDAPS) for nowcasting and very short range forecasts. The domain is centered at Incheon city and covers the central region of the Korean peninsula and adjacent seas. It repeats analysis and forecast processes with 1 hour cycling interval. IDAPS has approximately 1 km horizontal resolution with 324 x 360 grids and 70 vertical layers. Three dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to assimilate AWS, windprofiler, buoy, sonde, aircraft, scatwinds, rain rate, and radar products. The details of IDAPS and the experiment results will be given during the conference.

Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States with Ordered Logistic Regression at Vienna International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kneringer, Philipp; Dietz, Sebastian; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim

2017-04-01

Low-visibility conditions have a large impact on aviation safety and economic efficiency of airports and airlines. To support decision makers, we develop a statistical probabilistic nowcasting tool for the occurrence of capacity-reducing operations related to low visibility. The probabilities of four different low visibility classes are predicted with an ordered logistic regression model based on time series of meteorological point measurements. Potential predictor variables for the statistical models are visibility, humidity, temperature and wind measurements at several measurement sites. A stepwise variable selection method indicates that visibility and humidity measurements are the most important model inputs. The forecasts are tested with a 30 minute forecast interval up to two hours, which is a sufficient time span for tactical planning at Vienna Airport. The ordered logistic regression models outperform persistence and are competitive with human forecasters.

Operational Prototype Development of a Global Aircraft Radiation Exposure Nowcast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Christopher; Kress, Brian; Wiltberger, Michael; Tobiska, W. Kent; Bouwer, Dave

Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles (SEP) are the primary sources of human exposure to high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation in the atmosphere. High-LET radiation is effective at directly breaking DNA strands in biological tissue, or producing chemically active radicals in tissue that alter the cell function, both of which can lead to cancer or other adverse health effects. A prototype operational nowcast model of air-crew radiation exposure is currently under development and funded by NASA. The model predicts air-crew radiation exposure levels from both GCR and SEP that may accompany solar storms. The new air-crew radiation exposure model is called the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model. NAIRAS will provide global, data-driven, real-time exposure predictions of biologically harmful radiation at aviation altitudes. Observations are utilized from the ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the NCEP Global Forecast System), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations characterize the overhead mass shielding and the ground-and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the incident GCR and SEP particle flux distributions for transport and dosimetry calculations. Radiation exposure rates are calculated using the NASA physics-based HZETRN (High Charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) code. An overview of the NAIRAS model is given: the concept, design, prototype implementation status, data access, and example results. Issues encountered thus far and known and/or anticipated hurdles to research to operations transition are also discussed.

A Real-Time California Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System: Skill Assessment, User Products, and Transition from Research to Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrara, J. D.; Chao, Y.; Chai, F.; Zhang, H.

2016-02-01

The real-time California coastal ocean nowcast/forecast system is described. The model is based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and covers the entire California coastal ocean with a horizontal resolution of 3 km and 40 vertical layers. The atmospheric forcing is derived from the operational regional atmospheric model forecasts. The lateral boundary conditions are provided by the operational ocean model forecasts. A multi-scale 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation scheme is used to assimilate both in situ (e.g., vertical profiles of temperature and salinity) and remotely sensed data from both satellite (e.g., sea surface temperature and sea surface height) and land-based platforms (e.g., surface current). The performance of our nowcast/forecast system is evaluated in real-time by a number of metrics that are published as soon as they become available. User tools and products have been developed for both general users and super-users (e.g., NOAA Office of Response and Restoration and USCG). Recent results comparing the 3DVAR with the ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) using Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) will be presented. Preliminary results coupling the ROMS circulation model with a biogeochemistry/ecosystem model (i.e., CoSiNE) will also discussed. Cloud computing services (e.g., Microsoft, Google) are now being tested to increase the reliability and timeliness in order to be accepted as a truly operational system in the near future.

A computer vision approach for solar radiation nowcasting using MSG images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvarez, L.; Castaño Moraga, C. A.; Martín, J.

2010-09-01

Cloud structures and haze are the two main atmospheric phenomena that reduce the performance of solar power plants, since they absorb solar energy reaching terrestrial surface. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar radiation is a challenging research area that involves both a precise localization of cloud structures and haze, as well as the attenuation introduced by these artifacts. Our work presents a novel approach for nowcasting services based on image processing techniques applied to MSG satellite images provided by the EUMETSAT Rapid Scan Service (RSS) service. These data are an interesting source of information for our purposes since every 5 minutes we obtain actual information of the atmospheric state in nearly real time. However, a workaround must be given in order to forecast solar radiation. To that end, we synthetically forecast MSG images forecasts from past images applying computer vision techniques adapted to fluid flows in order to evolve atmospheric state. First, we classify cloud structures on two different layers, corresponding to top and bottom clouds, which includes haze. This two-level classification responds to the dominant climate conditions found in our region of interest, the Canary Islands archipelago, regulated by the Gulf Stream and Trade Winds. Vertical structure of Trade Winds consists of two layers, the bottom one, which is fresh and humid, and the top one, which is warm and dry. Between these two layers a thermal inversion appears that does not allow bottom clouds to go up and naturally divides clouds in these two layers. Top clouds can be directly obtained from satellite images by means of a segmentation algorithm on histogram heights. However, bottom clouds are usually overlapped by the former, so an inpainting algorithm is used to recover overlapped areas of bottom clouds. For each layer, cloud motion is estimated through a correlation based optic flow algorithm that provides a vector field that describes the displacement field in each layer between two consecutive images in a sequence. Since RSS service from EUMETSAT provides images every 5 minutes (Δt), the cloud motion vector field between images at time t0 and (t0 - Δt) is quite similar to that between (t0 - Δt) and (t0 - 2Δt). Under this assumption, we infer the motion vector field for the next image in order to build a synthetic version of the image at time (t0 + Δt). The computation of this future motion vector field takes into account terrain orography in order to produce more realistic forecasts. In this sense, we are currently working on the integration of information from NWP outputs in order to introduce other atmospheric phenomena. Applying this algorithm several times we are able to produce short-term forecasts up to 6 hours with encouraging performance. To validate our results, we use both, comparison of synthetically generated images with the corresponding images at a given time, and direct solar radiation measurement with the set of meteorological stations located at several points of the canarian archipelago.

Nowcasting sunshine number using logistic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brabec, Marek; Badescu, Viorel; Paulescu, Marius

2013-04-01

In this paper, we present a formalized approach to statistical modeling of the sunshine number, binary indicator of whether the Sun is covered by clouds introduced previously by Badescu (Theor Appl Climatol 72:127-136, 2002). Our statistical approach is based on Markov chain and logistic regression and yields fully specified probability models that are relatively easily identified (and their unknown parameters estimated) from a set of empirical data (observed sunshine number and sunshine stability number series). We discuss general structure of the model and its advantages, demonstrate its performance on real data and compare its results to classical ARIMA approach as to a competitor. Since the model parameters have clear interpretation, we also illustrate how, e.g., their inter-seasonal stability can be tested. We conclude with an outlook to future developments oriented to construction of models allowing for practically desirable smooth transition between data observed with different frequencies and with a short discussion of technical problems that such a goal brings.

Solar Energetic Proton Nowcast for Low Earth Orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, L. M.; Quinn, R. A.

2013-12-01

Solar energetic proton flux levels above > 10 pfu can damage spacecraft and pose a hazard to astronauts as well as passengers and crew on polar commercial flights. While the GOES satellites provide real-time data of SEP levels in geosynchronous orbit, it is also important to determine the risk to objects in lower altitude orbits. To assess this risk in real-time, we created a web-based nowcast of SEP flux. The tool determines the current solar energetic proton flux level given input position (latitude, longitude, and altitude) and energy of the protons (e.g., > 10 MeV). The effective cutoff energy is calculated for the location and current geomagnetic storm level (i.e., the Kp value from SWPC) using the Shea & Smart (e.g., Smart et al. 1999abc, 2000) geomagnetic cutoff model, which uses a trajectory tracing technique through the Tsyganenko magnetospheric model for the geomagnetic field. With the cutoff energy and GOES proton flux measurements, a map of the current predicted proton flux level at the input energy is displayed along with the calculated integral spectrum for the input position. This operational tool is a powerful new diagnostic for assessing the risk to spacecraft from current solar proton levels, with easy to read color-coded maps generated for all GOES integral proton flux energies and a range of altitudes (1000 - 35000 km). The figures show example maps over a ';'quiet'' (03-26-13) and active (10-30-03) time, with high proton levels easily distinguishable at or above the NOAA warning level (yellow-orange-red). The tool also displays the current GOES integral spectrum and fit, and the estimated spectrum at a user-defined location and altitude.

Phased Array Radar Network Experiment for Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushio, T.; Kikuchi, H.; Mega, T.; Yoshikawa, E.; Mizutani, F.; Takahashi, N.

2017-12-01

Phased Array Weather Radar (PAWR) was firstly developed in 2012 by Osaka University and Toshiba under a grant of NICT using the Digital Beamforming Technique, and showed a impressive thunderstorm behavior with 30 second resolution. After that development, second PAWR was installed in Kobe city about 60 km away from the first PAWR site, and Tokyo Metropolitan University, Osaka Univeristy, Toshiba and the Osaka Local Government started a new project to develop the Osaka Urban Demonstration Network. The main sensor of the Osaka Network is a 2-node Phased Array Radar Network and lightning location system. Data products that are created both in local high performance computer and Toshiba Computer Cloud, include single and multi-radar data, vector wind, quantitative precipitation estimation, VIL, nowcasting, lightning location and analysis. Each radar node is calibarated by the baloon measurement and through the comparison with the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)/ DPR (Dual Frequency Space borne Radar) within 1 dB. The attenuated radar reflectivities obtained by the Phased Array Radar Network at X band are corrected based on the bayesian scheme proposed in Shimamura et al. [2016]. The obtained high resolution (every 30 seconds/ 100 elevation angles) 3D reflectivity and rain rate fields are used to nowcast the surface rain rate up to 30 minutes ahead. These new products are transferred to Osaka Local Government in operational mode and evaluated by several section in Osaka Prefecture. Furthermore, a new Phased Array Radar with polarimetric function has been developed in 2017, and will be operated in the fiscal year of 2017. In this presentation, Phased Array Radar, network architecuture, processing algorithm, evalution of the social experiment and first Multi-Prameter Phased Array Radar experiment are presented.

Initial evaluations of a Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ocean forecast system in the context of the Deepwater Horizon disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaron, Edward D.; Fitzpatrick, Patrick J.; Cross, Scott L.; Harding, John M.; Bub, Frank L.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Ko, Dong S.; Lau, Yee; Woodard, Katharine; Mooers, Christopher N. K.

2015-12-01

In response to the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated Americas Seas, or AMSEAS, which is documented in this manuscript. The DwH disaster provided a challenge to the application of available ocean-forecast capabilities, and also generated a historically large observational dataset. AMSEAS was evaluated by four complementary efforts, each with somewhat different aims and approaches: a university research consortium within an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) testbed; a petroleum industry consortium, the Gulf of Mexico 3-D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Prediction Project (GOMEX-PPP); a British Petroleum (BP) funded project at the Northern Gulf Institute in response to the oil spill; and the Navy itself. Validation metrics are presented in these different projects for water temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface wind, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and volume transport, for different forecast time scales. The validation found certain geographic and time biases/errors, and small but systematic improvements relative to earlier regional and global modeling efforts. On the basis of these positive AMSEAS validation studies, an oil spill transport simulation was conducted using archived AMSEAS nowcasts to examine transport into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This effort captured the influences of Hurricane Alex and a non-tropical cyclone off the Louisiana coast, both of which pushed oil into the western Mississippi Sound, illustrating the importance of the atmospheric influence on oil spills such as DwH.

McGill algorithm for precipitation nowcasting by lagrangian extrapolation (MAPLE) applied to the South Korean radar network. Part I: Sensitivity studies of the Variational Echo Tracking (VET) technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellon, Aldo; Zawadzki, Isztar; Kilambi, Alamelu; Lee, Hee Choon; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Gyuwon

2010-08-01

A Variational Echo Tracking (VET) technique has been applied to four months of archived data from the South Korean radar network in order to examine the influence of the various user-selectable parameters on the skill of the resulting 20-min to 4-h nowcasts. The latter are computed over a (512 × 512) array at 2-km resolution. After correcting the original algorithm to take into account the motion of precipitation across the boundaries of such a smaller radar network, we concluded that the set of default input parameters initially assumed is very close to the optimum combination. Decreasing to (5 sx 5) or increasing to (50 × 50) the default vector density of (25 × 25), using two or three maps for velocity determination, varying the relative weights for the constraints of conservation of reflectivity and of the smoothing of the velocity vectors, and finally the application of temporal smoothing all had only marginal effects on the skill of the forecasts. The relatively small sensitivity to significant variations of the VET default parameters is a direct consequence of the fact that the major source of the loss in forecast skill cannot be attributed to errors in the forecast motion, but to the unpredictable nature of the storm growth and decay. Changing the time interval between maps, from 20 to 10 minutes, and significantly increasing the reflectivity threshold from 15 to 30 dBZ had a more noticeable reduction on the forecast skill. Comparisons with the Eulerian "zero velocity" forecast and with a "single" vector forecast have also been performed in order to determine the accrued skill of the VET algorithm. Because of the extensive stratiform nature of the precipitation areas affecting the Korean peninsula, the increased skill is not as large as may have been anticipated. This can be explained by the greater extent of the precipitation systems relative to the size of the radar coverage domain.

Improving the nowcasting of precipitation in an Alpine region with an enhanced radar echo tracking algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mecklenburg, S.; Joss, J.; Schmid, W.

2000-12-01

Nowcasting for hydrological applications is discussed. The tracking algorithm extrapolates radar images in space and time. It originates from the pattern recognition techniques TREC (Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation, Rinehart and Garvey, J. Appl. Meteor., 34 (1995) 1286) and COTREC (Continuity of TREC vectors, Li et al., Nature, 273 (1978) 287). To evaluate the quality of the extrapolation, a parameter scheme is introduced, able to distinguish between errors in the position and the intensity of the predicted precipitation. The parameters for the position are the absolute error, the relative error and the error of the forecasted direction. The parameters for the intensity are the ratio of the medians and the variations of the rain rate (ratio of two quantiles) between the actual and the forecasted image. To judge the overall quality of the forecast, the correlation coefficient between the forecasted and the actual radar image has been used. To improve the forecast, three aspects have been investigated: (a) Common meteorological attributes of convective cells, derived from a hail statistics, have been determined to optimize the parameters of the tracking algorithm. Using (a), the forecast procedure modifications (b) and (c) have been applied. (b) Small-scale features have been removed by using larger tracking areas and by applying a spatial and temporal smoothing, since problems with the tracking algorithm are mainly caused by small-scale/short-term variations of the echo pattern or because of limitations caused by the radar technique itself (erroneous vectors caused by clutter or shielding). (c) The searching area and the number of searched boxes have been restricted. This limits false detections, which is especially useful in stratiform precipitation and for stationary echoes. Whereas a larger scale and the removal of small-scale features improve the forecasted position for the convective precipitation, the forecast of the stratiform event is not influenced, but limiting the search area leads to a slightly better forecast. The forecast of the intensity is successful for both precipitation events. Forecasting the variation of the rain rate calls for further investigation. Applying COTREC improves the forecast of the convective precipitation, especially for extrapolation times exceeding 30 min.

The RMI Space Weather and Navigation Systems (SWANS) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warnant, Rene; Lejeune, Sandrine; Wautelet, Gilles; Spits, Justine; Stegen, Koen; Stankov, Stan

The SWANS (Space Weather and Navigation Systems) research and development project (http://swans.meteo.be) is an initiative of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) under the auspices of the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The RMI SWANS objectives are: research on space weather and its effects on GNSS applications; permanent mon-itoring of the local/regional geomagnetic and ionospheric activity; and development/operation of relevant nowcast, forecast, and alert services to help professional GNSS/GALILEO users in mitigating space weather effects. Several SWANS developments have already been implemented and available for use. The K-LOGIC (Local Operational Geomagnetic Index K Calculation) system is a nowcast system based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, and calculating the local geomagnetic K index. Simultaneously, the planetary Kp index is estimated from solar wind measurements, thus adding to the service reliability and providing forecast capabilities as well. A novel hybrid empirical model, based on these ground-and space-based observations, has been implemented for nowcasting and forecasting the geomagnetic index, issuing also alerts whenever storm-level activity is indicated. A very important feature of the nowcast/forecast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the output quality. The purpose of the LIEDR (Local Ionospheric Electron Density Reconstruction) system is to acquire and process data from simultaneous ground-based GNSS TEC and digital ionosonde measurements, and subsequently to deduce the vertical electron density distribution. A key module is the real-time estimation of the ionospheric slab thickness, offering additional infor-mation on the local ionospheric dynamics. The RTK (Real Time Kinematic) status mapping provides a quick look at the small-scale ionospheric effects on the RTK precision for several GPS stations in Belgium. The service assesses the effect of small-scale ionospheric irregularities by monitoring the high-frequency TEC rate of change at any given station. This assessment results in a (colour) code assigned to each station, code ranging from "quiet" (green) to "extreme" (red) and referring to the local ionospheric conditions. Alerts via e-mail are sent to subscribed users when disturbed conditions are observed. SoDIPE (Software for Determining the Ionospheric Positioning Error) estimates the position-ing error due to the ionospheric conditions only (called "ionospheric error") in high-precision positioning applications (RTK in particular). For each of the Belgian Active Geodetic Network (AGN) baselines, SoDIPE computes the ionospheric error and its median value (every 15 min-utes). Again, a (colour) code is assigned to each baseline, ranging from "nominal" (green) to "extreme" (red) error level. Finally, all available baselines (drawn in colour corresponding to error level) are displayed on a map of Belgium. The future SWANS work will focus on regional ionospheric monitoring and developing various other nowcast and forecast services.

A Global Landslide Nowcasting System using Remotely Sensed Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanely, Thomas

2017-04-01

A global Landslide Hazard Assessment model for Situational Awareness (LHASA) has been developed that combines susceptibility information with satellite-based precipitation to provide an indication of potential landslide activity at the global scale every 30 minutes. This model utilizes a 1-km global susceptibility map derived from information on slope, geology, road networks, fault zones, and forest loss. A multi-satellite dataset from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is used to identify the current and antecedent rainfall conditions from the past 7 days. When both rainfall and susceptibility are high, a "nowcast" is issued to indicate areas where a landslide may be likely. The global LHASA model is currently being run in near real-time every 30 minutes and the outputs are available in several different formats at https://pmm.nasa.gov/precip-apps. This talk outlines the LHASA system, discusses the performance metrics and potential applications of the LHASA system.

Nowcasting influenza outbreaks using open-source media report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray, Jaideep; Brownstein, John S.

We construct and verify a statistical method to nowcast influenza activity from a time-series of the frequency of reports concerning influenza related topics. Such reports are published electronically by both public health organizations as well as newspapers/media sources, and thus can be harvested easily via web crawlers. Since media reports are timely, whereas reports from public health organization are delayed by at least two weeks, using timely, open-source data to compensate for the lag in %E2%80%9Cofficial%E2%80%9D reports can be useful. We use morbidity data from networks of sentinel physicians (both the Center of Disease Control's ILINet and France's Sentinelles network)more » as the gold standard of influenza-like illness (ILI) activity. The time-series of media reports is obtained from HealthMap (http://healthmap.org). We find that the time-series of media reports shows some correlation ( 0.5) with ILI activity; further, this can be leveraged into an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs (ARMAX model) to nowcast ILI activity. We find that the ARMAX models have more predictive skill compared to autoregressive (AR) models fitted to ILI data i.e., it is possible to exploit the information content in the open-source data. We also find that when the open-source data are non-informative, the ARMAX models reproduce the performance of AR models. The statistical models are tested on data from the 2009 swine-flu outbreak as well as the mild 2011-2012 influenza season in the U.S.A.« less

A radar-based regional extreme rainfall analysis to derive the thresholds for a novel automatic alert system in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panziera, Luca; Gabella, Marco; Zanini, Stefano; Hering, Alessandro; Germann, Urs; Berne, Alexis

2016-06-01

This paper presents a regional extreme rainfall analysis based on 10 years of radar data for the 159 regions adopted for official natural hazard warnings in Switzerland. Moreover, a nowcasting tool aimed at issuing heavy precipitation regional alerts is introduced. The two topics are closely related, since the extreme rainfall analysis provides the thresholds used by the nowcasting system for the alerts. Warm and cold seasons' monthly maxima of several statistical quantities describing regional rainfall are fitted to a generalized extreme value distribution in order to derive the precipitation amounts corresponding to sub-annual return periods for durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 h. It is shown that regional return levels exhibit a large spatial variability in Switzerland, and that their spatial distribution strongly depends on the duration of the aggregation period: for accumulations of 3 h and shorter, the largest return levels are found over the northerly alpine slopes, whereas for longer durations the southern Alps exhibit the largest values. The inner alpine chain shows the lowest values, in agreement with previous rainfall climatologies. The nowcasting system presented here is aimed to issue heavy rainfall alerts for a large variety of end users, who are interested in different precipitation characteristics and regions, such as, for example, small urban areas, remote alpine catchments or administrative districts. The alerts are issued not only if the rainfall measured in the immediate past or forecast in the near future exceeds some predefined thresholds but also as soon as the sum of past and forecast precipitation is larger than threshold values. This precipitation total, in fact, has primary importance in applications for which antecedent rainfall is as important as predicted one, such as urban floods early warning systems. The rainfall fields, the statistical quantity representing regional rainfall and the frequency of alerts issued in case of continuous threshold exceedance are some of the configurable parameters of the tool. The analysis of the urban flood which occurred in the city of Schaffhausen in May 2013 suggests that this alert tool might have complementary skill with respect to radar-based thunderstorm nowcasting systems for storms which do not show a clear convective signature.

Prediction and warning system of SEP events and solar flares for risk estimation in space launch operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Rigo, Alberto; Núñez, Marlon; Qahwaji, Rami; Ashamari, Omar; Jiggens, Piers; Pérez, Gustau; Hernández-Pajares, Manuel; Hilgers, Alain

2016-07-01

A web-based prototype system for predicting solar energetic particle (SEP) events and solar flares for use by space launch operators is presented. The system has been developed as a result of the European Space Agency (ESA) project SEPsFLAREs (Solar Events Prediction system For space LAunch Risk Estimation). The system consists of several modules covering the prediction of solar flares and early SEP Warnings (labeled Warning tool), the prediction of SEP event occurrence and onset, and the prediction of SEP event peak and duration. In addition, the system acquires data for solar flare nowcasting from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-based techniques (GNSS Solar Flare Detector, GSFLAD and the Sunlit Ionosphere Sudden Total Electron Content Enhancement Detector, SISTED) as additional independent products that may also prove useful for space launch operators.

An object-based approach to weather analysis and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troemel, Silke; Diederich, Malte; Horvath, Akos; Simmer, Clemens; Kumjian, Matthew

2013-04-01

The research group 'Object-based Analysis and SEamless prediction' (OASE) within the Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research programme (HErZ) pursues an object-based approach to weather analysis. The object-based tracking approach adopts the Lagrange perspective by identifying and following the development of convective events over the course of their lifetime. Prerequisites of the object-based analysis are a high-resolved observational data base and a tracking algorithm. A near real-time radar and satellite remote sensing-driven 3D observation-microphysics composite covering Germany, currently under development, contains gridded observations and estimated microphysical quantities. A 3D scale-space tracking identifies convective rain events in the dual-composite and monitors the development over the course of their lifetime. The OASE-group exploits the object-based approach in several fields of application: (1) For a better understanding and analysis of precipitation processes responsible for extreme weather events, (2) in nowcasting, (3) as a novel approach for validation of meso-γ atmospheric models, and (4) in data assimilation. Results from the different fields of application will be presented. The basic idea of the object-based approach is to identify a small set of radar- and satellite derived descriptors which characterize the temporal development of precipitation systems which constitute the objects. So-called proxies of the precipitation process are e.g. the temporal change of the brightband, vertically extensive columns of enhanced differential reflectivity ZDR or the cloud top temperature and heights identified in the 4D field of ground-based radar reflectivities and satellite retrievals generated by a cell during its life time. They quantify (micro-) physical differences among rain events and relate to the precipitation yield. Analyses on the informative content of ZDR columns as precursor for storm evolution for example will be presented to demonstrate the use of such system-oriented predictors for nowcasting. Columns of differential reflectivity ZDR measured by polarimetric weather radars are prominent signatures associated with thunderstorm updrafts. Since greater vertical velocities can loft larger drops and water-coated ice particles to higher altitudes above the environmental freezing level, the integrated ZDR column above the freezing level increases with increasing updraft intensity. Validation of atmospheric models concerning precipitation representation or prediction is usually confined to comparisons of precipitation fields or their temporal and spatial statistics. A comparison of the rain rates alone, however, does not immediately explain discrepancies between models and observations, because similar rain rates might be produced by different processes. Within the event-based approach for validation of models both observed and modeled rain events are analyzed by means of proxies of the precipitation process. Both sets of descriptors represent the basis for model validation since different leading descriptors - in a statistical sense- hint at process formulations potentially responsible for model failures.

Development and Transition of the Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James F.; Zank, G.

2014-01-01

We outline a plan to develop and transition a physics based predictive toolset called The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 Astronomical Units; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements. The described transition plan is based on a well established approach developed in the Earth Science discipline that ensures that the customer has a tool that meets their needs

Cloud and DNI nowcasting with MSG/SEVIRI for the optimized operation of concentrating solar power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirch, Tobias; Bugliaro, Luca; Zinner, Tobias; Möhrlein, Matthias; Vazquez-Navarro, Margarita

2017-02-01

A novel approach for the nowcasting of clouds and direct normal irradiance (DNI) based on the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) aboard the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite is presented for a forecast horizon up to 120 min. The basis of the algorithm is an optical flow method to derive cloud motion vectors for all cloudy pixels. To facilitate forecasts over a relevant time period, a classification of clouds into objects and a weighted triangular interpolation of clear-sky regions are used. Low and high level clouds are forecasted separately because they show different velocities and motion directions. Additionally a distinction in advective and convective clouds together with an intensity correction for quickly thinning convective clouds is integrated. The DNI is calculated from the forecasted optical thickness of the low and high level clouds. In order to quantitatively assess the performance of the algorithm, a forecast validation against MSG/SEVIRI observations is performed for a period of 2 months. Error rates and Hanssen-Kuiper skill scores are derived for forecasted cloud masks. For a forecast of 5 min for most cloud situations more than 95 % of all pixels are predicted correctly cloudy or clear. This number decreases to 80-95 % for a forecast of 2 h depending on cloud type and vertical cloud level. Hanssen-Kuiper skill scores for cloud mask go down to 0.6-0.7 for a 2 h forecast. Compared to persistence an improvement of forecast horizon by a factor of 2 is reached for all forecasts up to 2 h. A comparison of forecasted optical thickness distributions and DNI against observations yields correlation coefficients larger than 0.9 for 15 min forecasts and around 0.65 for 2 h forecasts.

Empirical Modeling of Microbial Indicators at a South Carolina Beach

EPA Science Inventory

Public concerns about water quality at beaches have prompted the development of multiple linear regression and other models that can be used to "nowcast" levels of bacterial indicators. Hydrometeorological and biogeochemical data from summer, 2009 were used to develop empirical m...

Piloting a real-time surface water flood nowcasting system for enhancing operational resilience of emergency responders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Dapeng; Guan, Mingfu; Wilby, Robert; Bruce, Wright; Szegner, Mark

2017-04-01

Emergency services (such as Fire & Rescue, and Ambulance) can face the challenging tasks of having to respond to or operate under extreme and fast changing weather conditions, including surface water flooding. UK-wide, return period based surface water flood risk mapping undertaken by the Environment Agency provides useful information about areas at risks. Although these maps are useful for planning purposes for emergency responders, their utility to operational response during flood emergencies can be limited. A street-level, high resolution, real-time, surface water flood nowcasting system, has been piloted in the City of Leicester, UK to assess emergency response resilience to surface water flooding. Precipitation nowcasting over 7- and 48-hour horizons are obtained from the UK Met Office and used as inputs to the system. A hydro-inundation model is used to simulate urban surface water flood depths/areas at both the city and basin scale, with a 20 m and 3 m spatial resolution respectively, and a 15-minute temporal resolution, 7-hour and 48-hour in advance. Based on this, we evaluate both the direct and indirect impacts of potential surface water flood events on emergency responses, including: (i) identifying vulnerable populations (e.g. care homes and schools) at risk; and (ii) generating novel metrics of accessibility (e.g. travel time from service stations to vulnerable sites; spatial coverage with certain legislative timeframes) in real-time. In doing so, real-time information on potential risks and impacts of emerging flood incidents arising from intense rainfall can be communicated via a dedicated web-based platform to emergency responders thereby improving response times and operational resilience.

Nowcasting Aircraft Icing Conditions in Moscow Region Using Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barabanova, Olga

2013-04-01

Nowadays the Main Aviation Meteorological Centre in Moscow (MAMC) provides forecasts of icing conditions in Moscow Region airports using information of surface observation network, weather radars and atmospheric sounding. Unfortunately, satellite information is not used properly in aviation meteorological offices in Moscow Region: weather forecasters deal with satellites images of cloudiness only. The main forecasters of MAMC realise that it is necessary to employ meteorological satellite numerical data from different channels in aviation forecasting and especially in nowcasting. Algorithm of nowcasting aircraft in-flight icing conditions has been developed using data from geostationary meteorological satellites "Meteosat-7" and "Meteosat-9". The algorithm is based on the brightness temperature differences. Calculation of brightness temperature differences help to discriminate clouds with supercooled large drops where severe icing conditions are most likely. Due to the lack of visible channel data, the satellite icing detection methods will be less accurate at night. Besides this method is limited by optically thick ice clouds where it is not possible to determine the extent to which supercooled large drops exists within the underlying clouds. However, we determined that most of the optically thick cases are associated with convection or mid-latitude cyclones and they will nearly always have a layer where which supercooled large drops exists with an icing threat. This product is created hourly for the Moscow Air Space and mark zones with moderate or severe icing hazards. The results were compared with mesoscale numerical atmospheric model COSMO-RU output. Verification of the algorithms results using aircraft pilot reports shows that this algorithm is a good instrument for the operational practise in aviation meteorological offices in Moscow Region. The satellite-based algorithms presented here can be used in real time to diagnose areas of icing for pilots to avoid.

A framework for nowcasting and forecasting of rainfall-triggered landslide activity using remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas

2016-04-01

Remote sensing data offers the unique perspective to provide situational awareness of hydrometeorological hazards over large areas in a way that is impossible to achieve with in situ data. Recent work has shown that rainfall-triggered landslides, while typically local hazards that occupy small spatial areas, can be approximated over regional or global scales in near real-time. This work presents a regional and global approach to approximating potential landslide activity using the landslide hazard assessment for situational awareness (LHASA) model. This system couples remote sensing data, including Global Precipitation Measurement rainfall data, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and other surface variables to estimate where and when landslide activity may be likely. This system also evaluates the effectiveness of quantitative precipitation estimates from the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 to provide a 24 forecast of potential landslide activity. Preliminary results of the LHASA model and implications for are presented for a regional version of this system in Central America as well as a prototype global approach.

NOWCASTING AND FORECASTING BEACH BACTERIA CONCENTRATION USING THE EPA VIRTUAL BEACH SOFTWARE

EPA Science Inventory

Beaches are subject to closure when bacterial counts exceed water quality criteria. Many authorities base these decisions on sample counts, which typically require a day or more to analyze. Sometimes called the persistence model, because conditions are assumed to persist, experie...

The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute's severe storm nowcasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novak, Petr

2007-02-01

To satisfy requirements for operational severe weather monitoring and prediction, the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has developed a severe storm nowcasting system which uses weather radar data as its primary data source. Previous CHMI studies identified two methods of radar echo prediction, which were then implemented during 2003 into the Czech weather radar network operational weather processor. The applications put into operations were the Continuity Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation (COTREC) algorithm, and an application that predicts future radar fields using the wind field derived from the geopotential at 700 hPa calculated from a local numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). To ensure timely delivery of the prediction products to the users, the forecasts are implemented into a web-based viewer (JSMeteoView) that has been developed by the CHMI Radar Department. At present, this viewer is used by all CHMI forecast offices for versatile visualization of radar and other meteorological data (Meteosat, lightning detection, NWP LAM output, SYNOP data) in the Internet/Intranet environment, and the viewer has detailed geographical navigation capabilities.

Impact of nowcasting on the production and processing of agricultural crops. [in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dancer, W. S.; Tibbitts, T. W.

1973-01-01

The value was studied of improved weather information and weather forecasting to farmers, growers, and agricultural processing industries in the United States. The study was undertaken to identify the production and processing operations that could be improved with accurate and timely information on changing weather patterns. Estimates were then made of the potential savings that could be realized with accurate information about the prevailing weather and short term forecasts for up to 12 hours. This weather information has been termed nowcasting. The growing, marketing, and processing operations of the twenty most valuable crops in the United States were studied to determine those operations that are sensitive to short-term weather forecasting. Agricultural extension specialists, research scientists, growers, and representatives of processing industries were consulted and interviewed. The value of the crops included in this survey and their production levels are given. The total value for crops surveyed exceeds 24 billion dollars and represents more than 92 percent of total U.S. crop value.

Global Floods and Droughts Simulation to Support International Flood Initiative and International Drought Initiative of the UNESCO International Hydrological Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusyev, M.; Takeuchi, K.; Magome, J.; Masood, M.

2015-12-01

One of the main achievements of the IHD/IHP programs is the promotion and enhancement of hydrological data exchange within the global water community. World Catalogue of Very Large Floods, World Water Balance and Water Resources of the Earth are the great examples of some initial collaborative efforts and the FRIEND and Catalogue of Rivers for Southeast Asia and the Pacific are the more recent outcomes. Along with similar efforts by WMO, FAO, IGBP, CEOS and many other national and international institutes, the global hydrological monitoring and nowcast have made a considerable progress last decade and are about to put into practice. Such efforts include global streamflow alert system of U Maryland and GFAS-streamflow of ICHARM and U Yamanshi. Especially the recent achievements of GFAS-streamflow support the current efforts of IHP International Flood Initiative (IFI) and International Drought Initiatives (IDI) by global nowcasts and easily visible indicators in 20-km resolution.

Spatial Ensemble Postprocessing of Precipitation Forecasts Using High Resolution Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Moritz N.; Schicker, Irene; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong

2017-04-01

Ensemble prediction systems are designed to account for errors or uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions, imperfect parameterizations, etc. However, due to sampling errors and underestimation of the model errors, these ensemble forecasts tend to be underdispersive, and to lack both reliability and sharpness. To overcome such limitations, statistical postprocessing methods are commonly applied to these forecasts. In this study, a full-distributional spatial post-processing method is applied to short-range precipitation forecasts over Austria using Standardized Anomaly Model Output Statistics (SAMOS). Following Stauffer et al. (2016), observation and forecast fields are transformed into standardized anomalies by subtracting a site-specific climatological mean and dividing by the climatological standard deviation. Due to the need of fitting only a single regression model for the whole domain, the SAMOS framework provides a computationally inexpensive method to create operationally calibrated probabilistic forecasts for any arbitrary location or for all grid points in the domain simultaneously. Taking advantage of the INCA system (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis), high resolution analyses are used for the computation of the observed climatology and for model training. The INCA system operationally combines station measurements and remote sensing data into real-time objective analysis fields at 1 km-horizontal resolution and 1 h-temporal resolution. The precipitation forecast used in this study is obtained from a limited area model ensemble prediction system also operated by ZAMG. The so called ALADIN-LAEF provides, by applying a multi-physics approach, a 17-member forecast at a horizontal resolution of 10.9 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour. The performed SAMOS approach statistically combines the in-house developed high resolution analysis and ensemble prediction system. The station-based validation of 6 hour precipitation sums shows a mean improvement of more than 40% in CRPS when compared to bilinearly interpolated uncalibrated ensemble forecasts. The validation on randomly selected grid points, representing the true height distribution over Austria, still indicates a mean improvement of 35%. The applied statistical model is currently set up for 6-hourly and daily accumulation periods, but will be extended to a temporal resolution of 1-3 hours within a new probabilistic nowcasting system operated by ZAMG.

COBEL model as part of a terminal-area ceiling and visibility (C and V) nowcast system : a progress report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-07-18

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) is supporting the development of products aimed at providing automated guidance to the air traffic managers for the anticipation of changes in ceiling and visibility ...

In-orbit verification of MHS spectral channels co-registration using the moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonsignori, Roberto

2017-09-01

In-orbit verification of the co-registration of channels in a scanning microwave or infrared radiometer can in principle be done during normal in-orbit operation, by using the regular events of lunar intrusion in the instrument cold space calibration view. A technique of data analysis based on best fit of data across lunar intrusions has been used to check the mutual alignment of the spectral channels of the MHS instrument. MHS (Microwave Humidity Sounder) is a cross-track scanning radiometer in the millimetre-wave range flying on EUMETSAT and NOAA polar satellites, used operationally for the retrieval of atmospheric parameters in numerical weather prediction and nowcasting. This technique does not require any special operation or manoeuvre and only relies on analysis of data from the nominal scanning operation. The co-alignment of sounding channels and window channels can be evaluated by this technique, which would not be possible by using earth landmarks, due to the absorption effect of the atmosphere. The analysis reported in this paper shows an achievable accuracy below 0.5 mrad against a beam width at 3dB and spatial sampling interval of about 20 mrad. In-orbit results for the MHS instrument on Metop-B are also compared with the pre-launch instrument characterisation, showing a good correlation.

Weather models as virtual sensors to data-driven rainfall predictions in urban watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cozzi, Lorenzo; Galelli, Stefano; Pascal, Samuel Jolivet De Marc; Castelletti, Andrea

2013-04-01

Weather and climate predictions are a key element of urban hydrology where they are used to inform water management and assist in flood warning delivering. Indeed, the modelling of the very fast dynamics of urbanized catchments can be substantially improved by the use of weather/rainfall predictions. For example, in Singapore Marina Reservoir catchment runoff processes have a very short time of concentration (roughly one hour) and observational data are thus nearly useless for runoff predictions and weather prediction are required. Unfortunately, radar nowcasting methods do not allow to carrying out long - term weather predictions, whereas numerical models are limited by their coarse spatial scale. Moreover, numerical models are usually poorly reliable because of the fast motion and limited spatial extension of rainfall events. In this study we investigate the combined use of data-driven modelling techniques and weather variables observed/simulated with a numerical model as a way to improve rainfall prediction accuracy and lead time in the Singapore metropolitan area. To explore the feasibility of the approach, we use a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model as a virtual sensor network for the input variables (the states of the WRF model) to a machine learning rainfall prediction model. More precisely, we combine an input variable selection method and a non-parametric tree-based model to characterize the empirical relation between the rainfall measured at the catchment level and all possible weather input variables provided by WRF model. We explore different lead time to evaluate the model reliability for different long - term predictions, as well as different time lags to see how past information could improve results. Results show that the proposed approach allow a significant improvement of the prediction accuracy of the WRF model on the Singapore urban area.

Development of an analysis tool for cloud base height and visibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umdasch, Sarah; Reinhold, Steinacker; Manfred, Dorninger; Markus, Kerschbaum; Wolfgang, Pöttschacher

2014-05-01

The meteorological variables cloud base height (CBH) and horizontal atmospheric visibility (VIS) at surface level are of vital importance for safety and effectiveness in aviation. Around 20% of all civil aviation accidents in the USA from 2003 to 2007 were due to weather related causes, around 18% of which were owing to decreased visibility or ceiling (main CBH). The aim of this study is to develop a system generating quality-controlled gridded analyses of the two parameters based on the integration of various kinds of observational data. Upon completion, the tool is planned to provide guidance for nowcasting during take-off and landing as well as for flights operated under visual flight rules. Primary input data consists of manual as well as instrumental observation of CBH and VIS. In Austria, restructuring of part of the standard meteorological stations from human observation to automatic measurement of VIS and CBH is currently in progress. As ancillary data, satellite derived products can add 2-dimensional information, e.g. Cloud Type by NWC SAF (Nowcasting Satellite Application Facilities) MSG (Meteosat Second Generation). Other useful available data are meteorological surface measurements (in particular of temperature, humidity, wind and precipitation), radiosonde, radar and high resolution topography data. A one-year data set is used to study the spatial and weather-dependent representativeness of the CBH and VIS measurements. The VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) system of the Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics of the University of Vienna provides the framework for the analysis development. Its integrated "Fingerprint" technique allows the insertion of empirical prior knowledge and ancillary information in the form of spatial patterns. Prior to the analysis, a quality control of input data is performed. For CBH and VIS, quality control can consist of internal consistency checks between different data sources. The possibility of two-dimensional consistency checks has to be explored. First results in the development of quality control features and fingerprints will be shown.

Data Analysis and Modeling to Support NOWCAST and Forecast Activities at the Fallon Naval Air Station

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

Remagnino, A. Nefian, G. Meenakshisundaram, V. Pascucci, J. Zara , J. Molineros, H. Thiesel, and T. Malzbender, Eds., 2006: Advances in Visual...Nefian, G. Meenakshisundaram, V. Pascucci, J. Zara , J. Molineros, H. Thiesel, and T. Malzbender, Eds., 2006: Advances in Visual Computing. Lecture Notes

Merging Disparate Data and Numerical Model Results for Dynamically Constrained Nowcasts

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

of Delaware Newark, DE 19716 phone: (302) 831-6836 fax: (302) 831-6838 email: brucel @udel.edu Award #: N000149910052 http://newark.cms.udel.edu... brucel /hrd.html LONG-TERM GOALS The long term goal of our research is to quantify submesoscale dynamical processes and understand their interactions

MICOM-Based Nowcast/Forecast for Coastal/Open Ocean Regions

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

and gyre dynamics (  Ozg okmen et al., 1999; Stern and Chassignet, 1999; Pratt et al., 1999) RESULTS In the ne mesh North Atlantic simulation...Stern, M.E., and E.P. Chassignet, 1999: Mechanism of eddy separation from coastal currents. J. Mar. Res., submitted.  Ozg okmen, T.M., E.P. Chassignet

High performance equipped mirrors for MTG FCI-TA and IRS-FTO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazakov, T.; San Juan, J. L.; Serrano, J.; Moreno, J.; González, D.; Rodríguez, G.; López, D.; Vázquez, E.; Aivar, J.; Motos, A.; Rahmouni, Christophe; Imperiali, Stephan; Fappani, Denis

2017-09-01

The Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Programme is being realised through the well established and successful Cooperation between EUMETSAT and ESA. It will ensure the future continuity of MSG with the capabilities to enhance nowcasting, global and regional numerical weather prediction, climate and atmospheric chemistry monitoring data from Geostationary Orbit.

Merging Disparate Data and Numerical Model Results for Dynamically Constrained Nowcasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-09-30

of Delaware Newark, DE 19716 phone: (302) 831-6836 fax: (302) 831-6838 email: brucel @udel.edu Award #: N000149910052 http://newark.cms.udel.edu... brucel /hrd.html LONG-TERM GOALS Our long-term goal is to quantify submesoscale dynamical processes in the ocean so that we can better understand

Tethered Satellites as Enabling Platforms for an Operational Space Weather Monitoring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, L. Habash; Gilchrist, B. E.; Bilen, S.; Owens, J.; Voronka, N.; Furhop, K.

2013-01-01

Space weather nowcasting and forecasting models require assimilation of near-real time (NRT) space environment data to improve the precision and accuracy of operational products. Typically, these models begin with a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g. via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative physics-based forward-prediction calculations. The issue of required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models is a complex one, and we do not address that with this poster. Instead, we present some examples of how tethered satellites can be used to address the shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include very long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements will be presented for each space weather parameter considered in this study.

Experimental Validation of a Forward Looking Interferometer for Detection of Clear Air Turbulence due to Mountain Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaffner, Philip R.; Daniels, Taumi S.; West, Leanne L.; Gimmestad, Gary G.; Lane, Sarah E.; Burdette, Edward M.; Smith, William L.; Kireev, Stanislav; Cornman, Larry; Sharman, Robert D.

2012-01-01

The Forward-Looking Interferometer (FLI) is an airborne sensor concept for detection and estimation of potential atmospheric hazards to aircraft. The FLI concept is based on high-resolution Infrared Fourier Transform Spectrometry technologies that have been developed for satellite remote sensing. The FLI is being evaluated for its potential to address multiple hazards, during all phases of flight, including clear air turbulence, volcanic ash, wake vortices, low slant range visibility, dry wind shear, and icing. In addition, the FLI is being evaluated for its potential to detect hazardous runway conditions during landing, such as wet or icy asphalt or concrete. The validation of model-based instrument and hazard simulation results is accomplished by comparing predicted performance against empirical data. In the mountain lee wave data collected in the previous FLI project, the data showed a damped, periodic mountain wave structure. The wave data itself will be of use in forecast and nowcast turbulence products such as the Graphical Turbulence Guidance and Graphical Turbulence Guidance Nowcast products. Determining how turbulence hazard estimates can be derived from FLI measurements will require further investigation.

Integration of Satellite-Derived Cloud Phase, Cloud Top Height, and Liquid Water Path into an Operational Aircraft Icing Nowcasting System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haggerty, Julie; McDonough, Frank; Black, Jennifer; Landott, Scott; Wolff, Cory; Mueller, Steven; Minnis, Patrick; Smith, William, Jr.

2008-01-01

Operational products used by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to alert pilots of hazardous icing provide nowcast and short-term forecast estimates of the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets. The Current Icing Product (CIP) system employs basic satellite-derived information, including a cloud mask and cloud top temperature estimates, together with multiple other data sources to produce a gridded, three-dimensional, hourly depiction of icing probability and severity. Advanced satellite-derived cloud products developed at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) provide a more detailed description of cloud properties (primarily at cloud top) compared to the basic satellite-derived information used currently in CIP. Cloud hydrometeor phase, liquid water path, cloud effective temperature, and cloud top height as estimated by the LaRC algorithms are into the CIP fuzzy logic scheme and a confidence value is determined. Examples of CIP products before and after the integration of the LaRC satellite-derived products will be presented at the conference.

Practical Application of NASA-Langley Advanced Satellite Products to In-Flight Icing Nowcasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernstein, Ben C.; Wolff, Cory A.; Minnis, Patrick

2006-01-01

Experimental satellite-based icing products developed by the NASA Langley Research Center provide new tools to identify the locations of icing and its intensity. Since 1997, research forecasters at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have been helping to guide the NASA Glenn Research Center's Twin Otter aircraft into and out of clouds and precipitation for the purpose of characterizing in-flight icing conditions, including supercooled large drops, the accretions that result from such encounters and their effect on aircraft performance. Since the winter of 2003-04, the NASA Langley satellite products have been evaluated as part of this process, and are being considered as an input to NCAR s automated Current Icing Potential (CIP) products. This has already been accomplished for a relatively straightforward icing event, but many icing events have much more complex characteristics, providing additional challenges to all icing diagnosis tools. In this paper, four icing events with a variety of characteristics will be examined, with a focus on the NASA Langley satellite retrievals that were available in real time and their implications for icing nowcasting and potential applications in CIP.

Urban pluvial flood prediction: a case study evaluating radar rainfall nowcasts and numerical weather prediction models as model inputs.

PubMed

Thorndahl, Søren; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

2016-12-01

Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events - especially in the future climate - it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically, both historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper, radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 h leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on the small town of Lystrup in Denmark, which was flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution radar rainfall data, but rather limited forecast performance in predicting floods with leadtimes more than half an hour.

On the skill of various ensemble spread estimators for probabilistic short range wind forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kann, A.

2012-05-01

A variety of applications ranging from civil protection associated with severe weather to economical interests are heavily dependent on meteorological information. For example, a precise planning of the energy supply with a high share of renewables requires detailed meteorological information on high temporal and spatial resolution. With respect to wind power, detailed analyses and forecasts of wind speed are of crucial interest for the energy management. Although the applicability and the current skill of state-of-the-art probabilistic short range forecasts has increased during the last years, ensemble systems still show systematic deficiencies which limit its practical use. This paper presents methods to improve the ensemble skill of 10-m wind speed forecasts by combining deterministic information from a nowcasting system on very high horizontal resolution with uncertainty estimates from a limited area ensemble system. It is shown for a one month validation period that a statistical post-processing procedure (a modified non-homogeneous Gaussian regression) adds further skill to the probabilistic forecasts, especially beyond the nowcasting range after +6 h.

SPoRT: Transitioning NASA and NOAA Experimental Data to the Operational Weather Community

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.

2013-01-01

Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. With the ever-broadening application of real-time high resolution satellite data from current EOS, Suomi NPP, and planned JPSS and GOES-R sensors to weather forecast problems, significant challenges arise in the acquisition, delivery, and integration of the new capabilities into the decision making process of the operational weather community. For polar orbiting sensors such as MODIS, AIRS, VIIRS, and CRiS, the use of direct broadcast ground stations is key to the real-time delivery of the data and derived products in a timely fashion. With the ABI on the geostationary GOES-R satellite, the data volumes will likely increase by a factor of 5-10 from current data streams. However, the high data volume and limited bandwidth of end user facilities presents a formidable obstacle to timely access to the data. This challenge can be addressed through the use of subsetting techniques, innovative web services, and the judicious selection of data formats. Many of these approaches have been implemented by SPoRT for the delivery of real-time products to NWS forecast offices and other weather entities. Once available in decision support systems like AWIPS II, these new data and products must be integrated into existing and new displays that allow for the integration of the data with existing operational products in these systems. SPoRT is leading the way in demonstrating this enhanced capability. This paper will highlight the ways SPoRT is overcoming many of the challenges presented by the enormous data volumes of current and future satellite systems to get unique high quality research data into the operational weather environment.

Challenges in Transitioning Research Data to Operations: The SPoRT Paradigm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedloved, Gary J.; Smith, Matt; McGrath, Kevin

2010-01-01

Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. With the ever-broadening application of real-time high resolution satellite data from current EOS and planned NPP, JPSS, and GOES-R sensors to weather forecast problems, significant challenges arise in the acquisition, delivery, and integration of the new capabilities into the decision making process of the operational weather community. For polar orbiting sensors such as MODIS, AIRS, VIIRS, and CRiS, the use of direct broadcast ground stations is key to the real-time delivery of the data and derived products in a timely fashion. With the ABI on the geostationary GOES-R satellite, the data volume will likely increase by a factor of 5- 10 from current data streams. However, the high data volume and limited bandwidth of end user facilities presents a formidable obstacle to timely access to the data. This challenge can be addressed through the use of subsetting techniques, innovative web services, and the judicious selection of data formats. Many of these approaches have been implemented by SPoRT for the delivery of real-time products to NWS forecast offices and other weather entities. Once available in decision support systems like AWIPS II, these new data and products must be integrated into existing and new displays that allow for the integration of the data with existing operational products in these systems. SPoRT is leading the way in demonstrating this enhanced capability. This paper will highlight the ways SPoRT is overcoming many of the challenges presented by the enormous data volumes of current and future satellite systems to get unique high quality research data into the operational weather environment.

Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen

The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat modelsmore » of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.« less

Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

2013-01-01

Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and improve existing nowcasts, restructuring monitoring activities to accommodate future uncertainties in funding and resources.

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

PubMed

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

2016-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

PubMed Central

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

An Air-Ocean Coupled Nowcast/Forecast System for the East Asian Marginal Seas

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-09-12

external factors affecting the regional oceanogra- phy. We use a rectilinear grid with horizontal spacing of 0.25° by 0.25° and 23 nonuniform vertical a ... levels . The model uses realistic bathymetry data from the Naval Oceanographic Office Digit~ Bathymetry Data Base with 5 minute resolution (DBDB5). 2.1.2

Soundscapes

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Soundscapes Michael B. Porter and Laurel J. Henderson...hindcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts of the time-evolving soundscape . In terms of the types of sound sources, we will focus initially on commercial...modeling of the soundscape due to noise involves running an acoustic model for a grid of source positions over latitude and longitude. Typically

A case study using kinematic quantities derived from a triangle of VHF Doppler wind profilers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Catherine A.; Forbes, Gregory S.

1989-01-01

Horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, kinematic vertical velocity, and geostrophic and ageostrophic winds are computed from Colorado profiler network data to investigate an upslope snowstorm in northeastern Colorado. Horizontal divergence and relative vorticity are computed using the Gauss and Stokes theorems, respectively. Kinematic vertical velocities are obtained from the surface to 9 km by vertically integrating the continuity equation. The geostrophic and ageostrophic winds are computed by applying a finite differencing technique to evaluate the derivatives in the horizontal equations of motion. Comparison of the synoptic-scale data with the profiler network data reveals that the two datasets are generally consistent. Also, the profiler-derived quantities exhibit coherent vertical and temporal patterns consistent with conceptual and theoretical flow fields of various meteorological phenomena. It is suggested that the profiler-derived quantities are of potential use to weather forecasters in that they enable the dynamic and kinematic interpretation of weather system structure to be made and thus have nowcasting and short-term forecasting value.

Particle acceleration and transport at a 2D CME-driven shock using the HAFv3 and PATH Code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, G.; Ao, X.; Fry, C. D.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Zank, G. P.

2012-12-01

We study particle acceleration at a 2D CME-driven shock and the subsequent transport in the inner heliosphere (up to 2 AU) by coupling the kinematic Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 3 (HAFv3) solar wind model (Hakamada and Akasofu, 1982, Fry et al. 2003) with the Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (PATH) model (Zank et al., 2000, Li et al., 2003, 2005, Verkhoglyadova et al. 2009). The HAFv3 provides the evolution of a two-dimensional shock geometry and other plasma parameters, which are fed into the PATH model to investigate the effect of a varying shock geometry on particle acceleration and transport. The transport module of the PATH model is parallelized and utilizes the state-of-the-art GPU computation technique to achieve a rapid physics-based numerical description of the interplanetary energetic particles. Together with a fast execution of the HAFv3 model, the coupled code gives us a possibility to nowcast/forecast the interplanetary radiation environment.

Validation Test Report for the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System as a Fractures/Leads and Polynyas Product

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-26

and Lipscomb, 2004) to describe the ice dynamics and compute strain rates. It incorporates the standard ridging scheme of Thorndike et al. (1975...Forecast System (ACNFS). NRL/MR/7320—10- 9287, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, 55 pp. Thorndike , A.S., D.A. Rothrock, G.A. Maykut, and

Summary of Research 2000: Department of Oceanography

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-12-01

Castro, R., A. S. Mascarenhas, R. Durazo and C. Collins, "Variaci6n estacional de la temperatura y salinidad en la entrada del Golfo de California...AREAS: Sensors , Battlespace Environments KEYWORDS: Littoral, Acoustics, Nowcast, Shelfbreak Fronts NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL OAO TEST-BAN TREATY...Organization. DoD KEY TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Sensors KEYWORDS: Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Monitoring OCEAN ACOUSTIC FEDERATION: CALIFORNIA CURRENT MONITORING

Implementations of the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation System at the Naval Oceanographic Office

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Clim ( GDEM ) +−2std = 95.4% GDEM POE at Depth MODAS Synthetic Profile T,S with Sat SST Local OI of Nearby Valid Data Global3D Analysis Fig. 3. NCODA...observation (Obs), NCODA analysis (Anal), RNCOM nowcast (NCST) for today, RNCOM 24–hour forecast (FCST) from yesterday, GDEM climatology (Clim), and the

CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Newsletter, Volume 28, Fall 2007

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McInnis-Efaw, Mary (Editor); Leinen, Laura (Editor)

2007-01-01

The articles in this issue of the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Newsletter are: "Unmanned Aerial Systems: An Overview of NOAA's Unmanned Aircraft System Program," "International Activities: Weather Briefings and Training Via the Internet," "Cloudsat's One-Year Anniversary: An Abundance of Exciting New Cloud Observations," and "The Migration of NCAR'S Auto-Nowcaster into NWS AWIPS."

Applications for Near-Real Time Satellite Cloud and Radiation Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnis, Patrick; Palikonda, Rabindra; Chee, Thad L.; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Smith, W.; Ayers, Jeffrey K.; Benjamin, Stanley; Chang, F.-L.; Nguyen, Louis; Norris, Peter;

Consideration of online rainfall measurement and nowcasting for RTC of the combined sewage system.

PubMed

Rouault, P; Schroeder, K; Pawlowsky-Reusing, E; Reimer, E

2008-01-01

In Berlin, Germany, the demand for enhanced protection of the environment and the growing economic pressure have led to an increased application of control concepts within the sewage system. A global control strategy to regulate the pumpage of the combined sewage system to the treatment plant was developed and evaluated in a theoretical study. The objective was to reduce CSO. In this paper an extension of the existing control algorithm by information from online rainfall measurement and radar nowcasting is described. The rainfall information is taken into account by two additive terms describing the predicted volume from rainfall runoff. On the basis of numerical simulation the potential of these two complementary forecast terms in the global control algorithm to further reduce CSO is evaluated. The investigations are based on long-time simulations that are conducted with the dynamic flow routing model InfoWorks for three subcatchments of the Berlin drainage system. The results show that at the current Berlin system a CSO reduction of only 0.8% is possible. The effect of the forecast terms is limited by operational constraints. Limits are set to both, the delivery from each individual pump station and the total pumpage to the treatment plant.

The Evolution of Operational Satellite Based Remote Sensing in Support of Weather Analysis, Nowcasting, and Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, B. K.

2010-12-01

The mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Data Information Service (NESDIS) is to provide timely access to global environmental data from satellites and other sources to promote, protect, and enhance America’s economy, security, environment, and quality of life. To fulfill its responsibilities, NESDIS acquires and manages America’s operational environmental satellites, operates the NOAA National Data Centers, provides data and information services including Earth system monitoring, performs official assessments of the environment, and conducts related research. The Nation’s fleet of operational environmental satellites has proven to be very critical in the detection, analysis, and forecast of natural or man-made phenomena. These assets have provided for the protection of people and property while safeguarding the Nation’s commerce and enabling safe and effective military operations. This presentation will take the audience through the evolution of operational satellite based remote sensing in support of weather forecasting, nowcasting, warning operations, hazard detection and mitigation. From the very first experiments involving radiation budget to today’s fleet of Geostationary and Polar Orbiting satellites to tomorrow’s constellation of high resolution imagers and hyperspectral sounders, environmental satellites sustain key observations for current and future generations.

On the local operational geomagnetic index K calculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stankov, Stan; Stegen, Koen; Wautelet, Gilles; Warnant, Rene

2010-05-01

There is an ongoing demand for services that can provide real-time assessment of the (global and local) geomagnetic activity and identified as being of importance to the exploration geophysics, radio communications and precise position/navigation practices, space weather research and modelling, etc. Such services depend largely on the reduction of solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric observations to generate activity indices, one of the most widely used being the K index. The K index is a quasi-logarithmic index characterising the 3-hourly range in transient magnetic activity relative to the regular "quiet-day" activity for a single site location. A derivative "planetary" index (Kp), the mean standardized K index from several globally distributed stations, provides a convenient measure of the global geomagnetic activity. Computer-based derivation of K/Kp indices was a major step towards higher efficiency and lower costs. Nowadays, automated data acquisition, processing and generating the index in real time is mandatory for any reliable service. However, Kp may not be accurate enough when monitoring disturbances of smaller scale, so the local K index (derived from the nearest magnetic station/s) might be considered as the better choice. Moreover, the 3-hour time scale is much larger than the shorter characteristic time of localised ionospheric phenomena that are of particular interest to us. Our experience in developing a novel nowcast system for local operational geomagnetic index K calculation (K-LOGIC) will be presented. The system is based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, screening the dataset and removing the outliers, establishing the solar regular (Sr) variation of the geomagnetic field, calculating the K index, and issuing an alert if storm-level activity is indicated. This is a time-controlled (rather than event-driven) system delivering as regular output (time resolution set to 1 hour) the K value, the estimated quality flag, and eventually, an alert. The regular field variation is determined from the hourly medians of the horizontal components' values obtained during the recent magnetically-quiet days. These Sr values are subtracted from the corresponding instantaneous measurement values (in the latest 3 hours) to determine the components' ranges (maximum minus minimum). Finally, the larger of the 2 horizontal components' ranges is used to determine the K value referring to the limits-of-range-classes table for the particular observatory. A very important feature of the K nowcast system is the strict control of data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the quality of output. The key concept of the implemented quality control (QC) procedure is based on the fact that a complete and sound dataset provides the ideal platform for reliable, closest-to-definite index production. In this sense, any gap or outlier in the dataset can erode the quality of the produced output. The QC matrix takes into account both, the total length of data gaps (shorter or no gaps - the better) and the time elapsed from the latest gaps/outliers (more distant in the past - the better). As a result, a QC flag is assigned to each K nowcast value. The above-described control is of crucial importance for the nowcast system operation since it helps minimising the existing possibility of missing an event or issuing a false alert. The K-LOGIC system's operability, accuracy and precision have been tested with instantaneous measurements from the recent years. A statistical comparison between nowcast and definite index values proves that the average rms error is smaller than 1 K unit. The system is now operational at the RMI Geophysical Centre in Dourbes (50.1N, 4.6E).

Application of commercial microwave link (CML) derived precipitation data in a hydrology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smiatek, Gerhard; Chwala, Christian; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

In 2016 very local and extremely intensive convective events caused severe flooding in the Alpine space. Despite the large number of monitoring stations most of the rainfall events were not captured accurately by the existing rain gauge network. As the number of traditional precipitation monitoring sites is in general decreasing, novel rain monitoring techniques are gaining attention. One of the new techniques is the rainfall estimation from signal attenuation in commercial microwave link (CML) networks operated by cellular phone companies. In this contribution, we use CML-derived rainfall information to improve the streamflow forecast of the distributed hydrology model WaSiM-ETH in hindcasting and nowcasting modes. Our model domain covers the complex terrain of the Ammer catchment located in the German Alps. The hydrology model is operated with a spatial resolution of 100m and with an hourly time step. We present two alternative methods of rainfall estimation from CMLs and compare the results to data from rain gauges and a weather radar. Finally, we show the impact of the rainfall data sets on the hydrology model initialization and in discharge simulations of the Ammer River for selected episodes in 2015 and 2016. We found that the densification of the observation network by the CML observations leads to a significant improvement of the model performance.

Combining In-situ Measurements, Passive Satellite Imagery, and Active Radar Retrievals for the Detection of High Ice Water Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yost, C. R.; Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.; Nguyen, L.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D.; Strapp, J. W.; Delanoë, J.; Protat, A.

2016-12-01

At least one hundred jet engine power loss events since the 1990s have been attributed to the phenomenon known as ice crystal icing (ICI). Ingestion of high concentrations of ice particles into aircraft engines is thought to cause these events, but it is clear that the use of current on-board weather radar systems alone is insufficient for detecting conditions that might cause ICI. Passive radiometers in geostationary orbit are valuable for monitoring systems that produce high ice water content (HIWC) and will play an important role in nowcasting, but are incapable of making vertically resolved measurements of ice particle concentration, i.e., ice water content (IWC). Combined radar, lidar, and in-situ measurements are essential for developing a skilled satellite-based HIWC nowcasting technique. The High Altitude Ice Crystals - High Ice Water Content (HAIC-HIWC) field campaigns in Darwin, Australia, and Cayenne, French Guiana, have produced a valuable dataset of in-situ total water content (TWC) measurements with which to study conditions that produce HIWC. The NASA Langley Satellite ClOud and Radiative Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) was used to derive cloud physical and optical properties such cloud top height, temperature, optical depth, and ice water path from multi-spectral satellite imagery acquired throughout the HAIC-HIWC campaigns. These cloud properties were collocated with the in-situ TWC measurements in order to characterize cloud properties in the vicinity of HIWC. Additionally, a database of satellite-derived overshooting cloud top (OT) detections was used to identify TWC measurements in close proximity to convective cores likely producing large concentrations of ice crystals. Certain cloud properties show some sensitivity to increasing TWC and a multivariate probabilistic indicator of HIWC was developed from these datasets. This paper describes the algorithm development and demonstrates the HIWC indicator with imagery from the HAIC-HIWC campaigns. Vertically resolved IWC retrievals from active sensors such as the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on CloudSat and the Doppler Radar System Airborne (RASTA) provide IWC profiles with which to validate and potentially enhance the satellite-based HIWC indicator.

The Automation of Nowcast Model Assessment Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

that will automate real-time WRE-N model simulations, collect and quality control check weather observations for assimilation and verification, and...domains centered near White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, where the Meteorological Sensor Array (MSA) will be located. The MSA will provide...observations and performing quality -control checks for the pre-forecast data assimilation period. 2. Run the WRE-N model to generate model forecast data

Nowcasting and assessing thunderstorm risk on the Lombardy region (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonelli, P.; Marcacci, P.; Bertolotti, E.; Collino, E.; Stella, G.

2011-06-01

The problem of severe thunderstorm risk in the Lombardy region (Italy) is serious. In fact during the warm season many thunderstorms (TS) occur in high density populated area located between the river Po and the Alps. In the year 2003, about 90 TS caused damage to people, houses, cars, agriculture and electrical lines. About 30 municipalities undergo damage by tornadoes. The 2003 summer was not particularly anomalous with respect to others for TS activity. In this region storms are well detected by some C-band radars and the Meteosat satellites, but the study of the correlation between these variables and the TS severity needs the collection of many met-data at the ground. Unfortunately the lack of a fine mesh met-station network forces the use of local press news or subjective reports to identify the impact of TS. Since 2006 ERSE has been collaborating with the Lombardy Region - Civil Protection Service/Office - in developing and testing a system to detect and nowcast severe thunderstorms, STAF (Storm Track Alert and Forecast). STAF is a nowcasting tool based on Radar and MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) data that selects only severe TS, tracks them and produces alert messages to users. In order to evaluate the severity of a TS, a crucial issue for STAF is the correlation between variables detected by the remote-sensing instruments and the effects at the ground. The paper describes a method to classify the severity of a TS by computing an index named "probability of damage" (PD). The index has been carried out by means of a storm archive, where radar and satellite data are stored together with damages reports from newspapers, all collected in 2003 summer. The index has been verified during the 2009 summer, when STAF was applied in a field test involving a group of Civil Protection observers and users. The results of this test are reported in the paper. The test has been also an occasion for verifying the effectiveness of information provided by STAF to selected people locally responsible for public alert and rescue in the case of a severe weather event.

Visualization and Nowcasting for Aviation using online verified ensemble weather radar extrapolation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaltenboeck, Rudolf; Kerschbaum, Markus; Hennermann, Karin; Mayer, Stefan

2013-04-01

Nowcasting of precipitation events, especially thunderstorm events or winter storms, has high impact on flight safety and efficiency for air traffic management. Future strategic planning by air traffic control will result in circumnavigation of potential hazardous areas, reduction of load around efficiency hot spots by offering alternatives, increase of handling capacity, anticipation of avoidance manoeuvres and increase of awareness before dangerous areas are entered by aircraft. To facilitate this rapid update forecasts of location, intensity, size, movement and development of local storms are necessary. Weather radar data deliver precipitation analysis of high temporal and spatial resolution close to real time by using clever scanning strategies. These data are the basis to generate rapid update forecasts in a time frame up to 2 hours and more for applications in aviation meteorological service provision, such as optimizing safety and economic impact in the context of sub-scale phenomena. On the basis of tracking radar echoes by correlation the movement vectors of successive weather radar images are calculated. For every new successive radar image a set of ensemble precipitation fields is collected by using different parameter sets like pattern match size, different time steps, filter methods and an implementation of history of tracking vectors and plausibility checks. This method considers the uncertainty in rain field displacement and different scales in time and space. By validating manually a set of case studies, the best verification method and skill score is defined and implemented into an online-verification scheme which calculates the optimized forecasts for different time steps and different areas by using different extrapolation ensemble members. To get information about the quality and reliability of the extrapolation process additional information of data quality (e.g. shielding in Alpine areas) is extrapolated and combined with an extrapolation-quality-index. Subsequently the probability and quality information of the forecast ensemble is available and flexible blending to numerical prediction model for each subarea is possible. Simultaneously with automatic processing the ensemble nowcasting product is visualized in a new innovative way which combines the intensity, probability and quality information for different subareas in one forecast image.

Real-time Assimilation of Altimeter Derived Synthetic Profiles Into a Global version of the Naval Research Laboratory's Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, R. C.; Barron, C. N.; Fox, D. N.; Smedstad, L. F.

2001-12-01

A global implementation of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at Stennis Space Center is currently running in real-time and is planned for transition to the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) in 2002. The model encompasses the open ocean to 5 m depth on a curvilinear global model grid with 1/8 degree grid spacing at 45N, extending from 80 S to a complete arctic cap with grid singularities mapped into Canada and Russia. Vertically, the model employs 41 sigma-z levels with sigma in the upper-ocean and coastal regions and z in the deeper ocean. The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) provides 6-hourly wind stresses and heat fluxes for forcing, while the operational Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) provides the background climatology and tools for data pre-processing. Operationally available sea surface temperature (SST) and altimetry (SSH) data are assimilated into the NAVOCEANO global 1/8 degree MODAS 2-D analysis and the 1/16 degree Navy Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) to provide analyses and forecasts of SSH and SST. The 2-D SSH and SST nowcast fields are used as input to the MODAS synthetic climatology database to yield three-dimensional fields of synthetic temperature and salinity for assimilation into global NCOM. The synthetic profiles are weighted higher at depth in the assimilation process to allow the numerical model to properly develop the mixed-layer structure driven by the real-time atmospheric forcing. Global NCOM nowcasts and forecasts provide a valuable resource for rapid response to the varied and often unpredictable operational requests for 3-dimensional fields of ocean temperature, salinity, and currents. In some cases, the resolution of the global product is sufficient for guidance. In cases requiring higher resolution, the global product offers a quick overview of local circulation and provides initial and boundary conditions for higher resolution coastal models that may be more specialized for a particular task or domain. Nowcast and forecast results are presented globally and in selected areas of interest and model results are compared with historical and concurrent observations and analyses.

Exploring the Use of Radar for a Physically Based Lightning Cessation Nowcasting Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Elise V.; Petersen, Walter A.; Carey, Lawrence D.

2011-01-01

NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to enable improved nowcasting of lightning cessation. This project centers on use of dual-polarimetric radar capabilities, and in particular, the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar acquired by the 45WS. Special emphasis is placed on the development of a physically based operational algorithm to predict lightning cessation. While previous studies have developed statistically based lightning cessation algorithms, we believe that dual-polarimetric radar variables offer the possibility to improve existing algorithms through the inclusion of physically meaningful trends reflecting interactions between in-cloud electric fields and hydrometeors. Specifically, decades of polarimetric radar research using propagation differential phase has demonstrated the presence of distinct phase and ice crystal alignment signatures in the presence of strong electric fields associated with lightning. One question yet to be addressed is: To what extent can these ice-crystal alignment signatures be used to nowcast the cessation of lightning activity in a given storm? Accordingly, data from the UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) along with the NASA-MSFC North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are used in this study to investigate the radar signatures present before and after lightning cessation. Thus far, our case study results suggest that the negative differential phase shift signature weakens and disappears after the analyzed storms ceased lightning production (i.e., after the last lightning flash occurred). This is a key observation because it suggests that while strong electric fields may still have been present, the lightning cessation signature encompassed the period of the polarimetric negative phase shift signature. To the extent this behavior is repeatable in other cases, even if only in a substantial fraction of those cases, the case analyses suggests that differential propagation phase may prove to be a useful parameter for future lightning cessation algorithms. Indeed, analysis of 15+ cases has shown additional indications of the weakening and disappearance of this ice alignment signature with lightning cessation. A summary of results will be presented.

Lightning Prediction using Electric Field Measurements Associated with Convective Events at a Tropical Location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jana, S.; Chakraborty, R.; Maitra, A.

2017-12-01

Nowcasting of lightning activities during intense convective events using a single electric field monitor (EFM) has been carried out at a tropical location, Kolkata (22.65oN, 88.45oE). Before and at the onset of heavy lightning, certain changes of electric field (EF) can be related to high liquid water content (LWC) and low cloud base height (CBH). The present study discusses the utility of EF observation to show a few aspects of convective events. Large convective cloud showed by high LWC and low CBH can be detected from EF variation which could be a precursor of upcoming convective events. Suitable values of EF gradient can be used as an indicator of impending lightning events. An EF variation of 0.195 kV/m/min can predict lightning within 17.5 km radius with a probability of detection (POD) of 91% and false alarm rate (FAR) of 8% with a lead time of 45 min. The total number of predicted lightning strikes is nearly 9 times less than that measured by the lightning detector. This prediction technique can, therefore, give an estimate of cloud to ground (CG) and intra cloud (IC) lighting occurrences within the surrounding area. This prediction technique involving POD, FAR and lead time information shows a better prediction capability compared to the techniques reported earlier. Thus an EFM can be effectively used for prediction of lightning events at a tropical location.

A combination of HARMONIE short time direct normal irradiance forecasts and machine learning: The #hashtdim procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gastón, Martín; Fernández-Peruchena, Carlos; Körnich, Heiner; Landelius, Tomas

2017-06-01

The present work describes the first approach of a new procedure to forecast Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI): the #hashtdim that treats to combine ground information and Numerical Weather Predictions. The system is centered in generate predictions for the very short time. It combines the outputs from the Numerical Weather Prediction Model HARMONIE with an adaptive methodology based on Machine Learning. The DNI predictions are generated with 15-minute and hourly temporal resolutions and presents 3-hourly updates. Each update offers forecasts to the next 12 hours, the first nine hours are generated with 15-minute temporal resolution meanwhile the last three hours present hourly temporal resolution. The system is proved over a Spanish emplacement with BSRN operative station in south of Spain (PSA station). The #hashtdim has been implemented in the framework of the Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting methods for optimized operation of concentrating solar technologies (DNICast) project, under the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration framework.

Regional and Coastal Prediction with the Relocatable Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

and those that may be resolved with a suite of satellite altimeters when several are present and operational (~ 100 km). The altimeter data provide...September 2014 47 The observational data used for assimilation include satellite sea surface temperature (SST), satellite altimeter sea surface height...anomaly (SSHA), satellite microwave-derived sea ice concentration, and in situ surface and profile data from sensors on ships; drifters; fixed buoys

Development, Implementation, and Skill Assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

USA) 2011 Abstract The NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecast System ( GLOFS ) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather...Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) in Silver Spring, MD. GLOFS has been making operational nowcasts and forecasts at CO-OPS... GLOFS ) uses near-real-time atmospheric observations and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water

Lightning Sensors for Observing, Tracking and Nowcasting Severe Weather

PubMed Central

Price, Colin

2008-01-01

Severe and extreme weather is a major natural hazard all over the world, often resulting in major natural disasters such as hail storms, tornados, wind storms, flash floods, forest fires and lightning damages. While precipitation, wind, hail, tornados, turbulence, etc. can only be observed at close distances, lightning activity in these damaging storms can be monitored at all spatial scales, from local (using very high frequency [VHF] sensors), to regional (using very low frequency [VLF] sensors), and even global scales (using extremely low frequency [ELF] sensors). Using sensors that detect the radio waves emitted by each lightning discharge, it is now possible to observe and track continuously distant thunderstorms using ground networks of sensors. In addition to the number of lightning discharges, these sensors can also provide information on lightning characteristics such as the ratio between intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning, the polarity of the lightning discharge, peak currents, charge removal, etc. It has been shown that changes in some of these lightning characteristics during thunderstorms are often related to changes in the severity of the storms. In this paper different lightning observing systems are described, and a few examples are provided showing how lightning may be used to monitor storm hazards around the globe, while also providing the possibility of supplying short term forecasts, called nowcasting. PMID:27879700

Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, Monika E.; Isaac, George A.; Gultepe, Ismail; Heckman, Ivan; Reid, Janti

2014-01-01

An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.

Verification and implementation of microburst day potential index (MDPI) and wind INDEX (WINDEX) forecasting tools at Cape Canaveral Air Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark

1996-01-01

This report details the research, development, utility, verification and transition on wet microburst forecasting and detection the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) did in support of ground and launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The unforecasted wind event on 16 August 1994 of 33.5 ms-1 (65 knots) at the Shuttle Landing Facility raised the issue of wet microburst detection and forecasting. The AMU researched and analyzed the downburst wind event and determined it was a wet microburst event. A program was developed for operational use on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) weather system to analyze, compute and display Theta(epsilon) profiles, the microburst day potential index (MDPI), and wind index (WINDEX) maximum wind gust value. Key microburst nowcasting signatures using the WSR-88D data were highlighted. Verification of the data sets indicated that the MDPI has good potential in alerting the duty forecaster to the potential of wet microburst and the WINDEX values computed from the hourly surface data do have potential in showing a trend for the maximum gust potential. WINDEX should help in filling in the temporal hole between the MDPI on the last Cape Canaveral rawinsonde and the nowcasting radar data tools.

Validating Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Properties for Weather and Climate Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.; Smith, W., Jr.; Yost, C. R.; Bedka, S. T.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D.; Sun-Mack, S.; Trepte, Q.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.

2014-12-01

Cloud properties determined from satellite imager radiances are increasingly used in weather and climate applications, particularly in nowcasting, model assimilation and validation, trend monitoring, and precipitation and radiation analyses. The value of using the satellite-derived cloud parameters is determined by the accuracy of the particular parameter for a given set of conditions, such as viewing and illumination angles, surface background, and cloud type and structure. Because of the great variety of those conditions and of the sensors used to monitor clouds, determining the accuracy or uncertainties in the retrieved cloud parameters is a daunting task. Sensitivity studies of the retrieved parameters to the various inputs for a particular cloud type are helpful for understanding the errors associated with the retrieval algorithm relative to the plane-parallel world assumed in most of the model clouds that serve as the basis for the retrievals. Real world clouds, however, rarely fit the plane-parallel mold and generate radiances that likely produce much greater errors in the retrieved parameter than can be inferred from sensitivity analyses. Thus, independent, empirical methods are used to provide a more reliable uncertainty analysis. At NASA Langley, cloud properties are being retrieved from both geostationary (GEO) and low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellite imagers for climate monitoring and model validation as part of the NASA CERES project since 2000 and from AVHRR data since 1978 as part of the NOAA CDR program. Cloud properties are also being retrieved in near-real time globally from both GEO and LEO satellites for weather model assimilation and nowcasting for hazards such as aircraft icing. This paper discusses the various independent datasets and approaches that are used to assessing the imager-based satellite cloud retrievals. These include, but are not limited to data from ARM sites, CloudSat, and CALIPSO. This paper discusses the use of the various datasets available, the methods employed to utilize them in the cloud property retrieval validation process, and the results and how they aid future development of the retrieval algorithms. Future needs are also discussed.

Accurate Influenza Monitoring and Forecasting Using Novel Internet Data Streams: A Case Study in the Boston Metropolis

PubMed Central

Lu, Fred Sun; Hou, Suqin; Baltrusaitis, Kristin; Shah, Manan; Leskovec, Jure; Sosic, Rok; Hawkins, Jared; Brownstein, John; Conidi, Giuseppe; Gunn, Julia; Gray, Josh; Zink, Anna

2018-01-01

Background Influenza outbreaks pose major challenges to public health around the world, leading to thousands of deaths a year in the United States alone. Accurate systems that track influenza activity at the city level are necessary to provide actionable information that can be used for clinical, hospital, and community outbreak preparation. Objective Although Internet-based real-time data sources such as Google searches and tweets have been successfully used to produce influenza activity estimates ahead of traditional health care–based systems at national and state levels, influenza tracking and forecasting at finer spatial resolutions, such as the city level, remain an open question. Our study aimed to present a precise, near real-time methodology capable of producing influenza estimates ahead of those collected and published by the Boston Public Health Commission (BPHC) for the Boston metropolitan area. This approach has great potential to be extended to other cities with access to similar data sources. Methods We first tested the ability of Google searches, Twitter posts, electronic health records, and a crowd-sourced influenza reporting system to detect influenza activity in the Boston metropolis separately. We then adapted a multivariate dynamic regression method named ARGO (autoregression with general online information), designed for tracking influenza at the national level, and showed that it effectively uses the above data sources to monitor and forecast influenza at the city level 1 week ahead of the current date. Finally, we presented an ensemble-based approach capable of combining information from models based on multiple data sources to more robustly nowcast as well as forecast influenza activity in the Boston metropolitan area. The performances of our models were evaluated in an out-of-sample fashion over 4 influenza seasons within 2012-2016, as well as a holdout validation period from 2016 to 2017. Results Our ensemble-based methods incorporating information from diverse models based on multiple data sources, including ARGO, produced the most robust and accurate results. The observed Pearson correlations between our out-of-sample flu activity estimates and those historically reported by the BPHC were 0.98 in nowcasting influenza and 0.94 in forecasting influenza 1 week ahead of the current date. Conclusions We show that information from Internet-based data sources, when combined using an informed, robust methodology, can be effectively used as early indicators of influenza activity at fine geographic resolutions. PMID:29317382

SPoRT - An End-to-End R2O Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.

2009-01-01

Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral observational data applications from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. SPoRT currently partners with several universities and other government agencies for access to real-time data and products, and works collaboratively with them and operational end users at 13 WFOs to develop and test the new products and capabilities in a "test-bed" mode. The test-bed simulates key aspects of the operational environment without putting constraints on the forecaster workload. Products and capabilities which show utility in the test-bed environment are then transitioned experimentally into the operational environment for further evaluation and assessment. SPoRT focuses on a suite of data and products from MODIS, AMSR-E, and AIRS on the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites, and total lightning measurements from ground-based networks. Some of the observations are assimilated into or used with various versions of the WRF model to provide supplemental forecast guidance to operational end users. SPoRT is enhancing partnerships with NOAA / NESDIS for new product development and data access to exploit the remote sensing capabilities of instruments on the NPOESS satellites to address short term weather forecasting problems. The VIIRS and CrIS instruments on the NPP and follow-on NPOESS satellites provide similar observing capabilities to the MODIS and AIRS instruments on Terra and Aqua. SPoRT will be transitioning existing and new capabilities into the AWIIPS II environment to continue the continuity of its activities.

Data Analysis, Modeling, and Ensemble Forecasting to Support NOWCAST and Forecast Activities at the Fallon Naval Station

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

and climate forecasting and use of satellite data assimilation for model evaluation. He is a task leader on another NSF_EPSCoR project for the...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Data Analysis, Modeling, and Ensemble Forecasting to...observations including remotely sensed data . OBJECTIVES The main objectives of the study are: 1) to further develop, test, and continue twice daily

Data Analysis, Modeling, and Ensemble Forecasting to Support NOWCAST and Forecast Activities at the Fallon Naval Station

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

forecasting and use of satellite data assimilation for model evaluation (Jiang et al, 2011a). He is a task leader on another NSF EPSCoR project...K. Horvath, R. Belu, 2011a: Application of variational data assimilation to dynamical downscaling of regional wind energy resources in the western...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Data Analysis, Modeling, and Ensemble Forecasting to

Domain-Level Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WREN) Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

Added by Decreased Grid Spacing 14 4.4 Performance Comparison of 2 WRE–N Configurations 18 4.5 Performance Comparison: Dumais WRE–N with FDDA vs. the...FDDA for 2 -m-AGL TMP (K) ..................................................... 15 Fig. 11 Bias and RMSE errors for the 3 grids for Dumais and Passner...WRE–N with FDDA for 2 -m-AGL DPT (K) ...................................................... 16 Fig. 12 Bias and RMSE errors for the 3 grids for Dumais

Operational use of spaceborne lidar datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marenco, Franco; Halloran, Gemma; Forsythe, Mary

2018-04-01

The Met Office plans to use space lidar datasets from CALIPSO, CATS, Aeolus and EarthCARE operationally in near real time (NRT), for the detection of aerosols. The first step is the development of NRT imagery for nowcasting of volcanic events, air quality, and mineral dust episodes. Model verification and possibly assimilation will be explored. Assimilation trials of Aeolus winds are also planned. Here we will present our first in-house imagery and our operational requirements.

Near-Continuous Profiling of Temperature, Moisture, and Atmospheric Stability Using the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feltz, W. F.; Smith, W. L.; Howell, H. B.; Knuteson, R. O.; Woolf, H.; Revercomb, H. E.

2003-05-01

The Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) has funded the development and installation of five ground-based atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) systems at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the AERI instrument, improvement of the AERI temperature and moisture retrieval technique, new profiling utility, and validation of high-temporal-resolution AERI-derived stability indices important for convective nowcasting. AERI systems have been built at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, and deployed in the Oklahoma-Kansas area collocated with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 404-MHz wind profilers at Lamont, Vici, Purcell, and Morris, Oklahoma, and Hillsboro, Kansas. The AERI systems produce absolutely calibrated atmospheric infrared emitted radiances at one-wavenumber resolution from 3 to 20 m at less than 10-min temporal resolution. The instruments are robust, are automated in the field, and are monitored via the Internet in near-real time. The infrared radiances measured by the AERI systems contain meteorological information about the vertical structure of temperature and water vapor in the planetary boundary layer (PBL; 0-3 km). A mature temperature and water vapor retrieval algorithm has been developed over a 10-yr period that provides vertical profiles at less than 10-min temporal resolution to 3 km in the PBL. A statistical retrieval is combined with the hourly Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) sounder water vapor or Rapid Update Cycle, version 2, numerical weather prediction (NWP) model profiles to provide a nominal hybrid first guess of temperature and moisture to the AERI physical retrieval algorithm. The hourly satellite or NWP data provide a best estimate of the atmospheric state in the upper PBL; the AERI radiances provide the mesoscale temperature and moisture profile correction in the PBL to the large-scale GOES and NWP model profiles at high temporal resolution. The retrieval product has been named AERIplus because the first guess used for the mathematical physical inversion uses an optimal combination of statistical climatological, satellite, and numerical model data to provide a best estimate of the atmospheric state. The AERI physical retrieval algorithm adjusts the boundary layer temperature and moisture structure provided by the hybrid first guess to fit the observed AERI downwelling radiance measurement. This provides a calculated AERI temperature and moisture profile using AERI-observed radiances `plus' the best-known atmospheric state above the boundary layer using NWP or satellite data. AERIplus retrieval accuracy for temperature has been determined to be better than 1 K, and water vapor retrieval accuracy is approximately 5% in absolute water vapor when compared with well-calibrated radiosondes from the surface to an altitude of 3 km. Because AERI can monitor the thermodynamics where the atmosphere usually changes most rapidly, atmospheric stability tendency information is readily available from the system. High-temporal-resolution retrieval of convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, and PBL equivalent potential temperature e are provided in near-real time from all five AERI systems at the ARM SGP site, offering a unique look at the atmospheric state. This new source of meteorological data has shown excellent skill in detecting rapid synoptic and mesoscale meteorological changes within clear atmospheric conditions. This method has utility in nowcasting temperature inversion strength and destabilization caused by e advection. This high-temporal-resolution monitoring of rapid atmospheric destabilization is especially important for nowcasting severe convection.

Forecasting the Incidence of Dementia and Dementia-Related Outpatient Visits With Google Trends: Evidence From Taiwan.

PubMed

Wang, Ho-Wei; Chen, Duan-Rung; Yu, Hsiao-Wei; Chen, Ya-Mei

2015-11-19

Google Trends has demonstrated the capability to both monitor and predict epidemic outbreaks. The connection between Internet searches for dementia information and dementia incidence and dementia-related outpatient visits remains unknown. This study aimed to determine whether Google Trends could provide insight into trends in dementia incidence and related outpatient visits in Taiwan. We investigated and validated the local search terms that would be the best predictors of new dementia cases and outpatient visits. We further evaluated the nowcasting (ie, forecasting the present) and forecasting effects of Google Trends search trends for new dementia cases and outpatient visits. The long-term goal is to develop a surveillance system to help early detection and interventions for dementia in Taiwan. This study collected (1) dementia data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database and (2) local Internet search data from Google Trends, both from January 2009 to December 2011. We investigated and validated search terms that would be the best predictors of new dementia cases and outpatient visits. We then evaluated both the nowcasting and the forecasting effects of Google Trends search trends through cross-correlation analysis of the dementia incidence and outpatient visit data with the Google Trends data. The search term "dementia + Alzheimer's disease" demonstrated a 3-month lead effect for new dementia cases and a 6-month lead effect for outpatient visits (r=.503, P=.002; r=.431, P=.009, respectively). When gender was included in the analysis, the search term "dementia" showed 6-month predictive power for new female dementia cases (r=.520, P=.001), but only a nowcasting effect for male cases (r=.430, P=.009). The search term "neurology" demonstrated a 3-month leading effect for new dementia cases (r=.433, P=.008), for new male dementia cases (r=.434, P=.008), and for outpatient visits (r=.613, P<.001). Google Trends established a plausible relationship between search terms and new dementia cases and dementia-related outpatient visits in Taiwan. This data may allow the health care system in Taiwan to prepare for upcoming outpatient and dementia screening visits. In addition, the validated search term results can be used to provide caregivers with caregiving-related health, skills, and social welfare information by embedding dementia-related search keywords in relevant online articles.

Forecasting the Incidence of Dementia and Dementia-Related Outpatient Visits With Google Trends: Evidence From Taiwan

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Google Trends has demonstrated the capability to both monitor and predict epidemic outbreaks. The connection between Internet searches for dementia information and dementia incidence and dementia-related outpatient visits remains unknown. Objective This study aimed to determine whether Google Trends could provide insight into trends in dementia incidence and related outpatient visits in Taiwan. We investigated and validated the local search terms that would be the best predictors of new dementia cases and outpatient visits. We further evaluated the nowcasting (ie, forecasting the present) and forecasting effects of Google Trends search trends for new dementia cases and outpatient visits. The long-term goal is to develop a surveillance system to help early detection and interventions for dementia in Taiwan. Methods This study collected (1) dementia data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database and (2) local Internet search data from Google Trends, both from January 2009 to December 2011. We investigated and validated search terms that would be the best predictors of new dementia cases and outpatient visits. We then evaluated both the nowcasting and the forecasting effects of Google Trends search trends through cross-correlation analysis of the dementia incidence and outpatient visit data with the Google Trends data. Results The search term “dementia + Alzheimer’s disease” demonstrated a 3-month lead effect for new dementia cases and a 6-month lead effect for outpatient visits (r=.503, P=.002; r=.431, P=.009, respectively). When gender was included in the analysis, the search term “dementia” showed 6-month predictive power for new female dementia cases (r=.520, P=.001), but only a nowcasting effect for male cases (r=.430, P=.009). The search term “neurology” demonstrated a 3-month leading effect for new dementia cases (r=.433, P=.008), for new male dementia cases (r=.434, P=.008), and for outpatient visits (r=.613, P<.001). Conclusions Google Trends established a plausible relationship between search terms and new dementia cases and dementia-related outpatient visits in Taiwan. This data may allow the health care system in Taiwan to prepare for upcoming outpatient and dementia screening visits. In addition, the validated search term results can be used to provide caregivers with caregiving-related health, skills, and social welfare information by embedding dementia-related search keywords in relevant online articles. PMID:26586281

Nowcasting, forecasting and hindcasting Harvey and Irma inundation in near-real time using a continental 2D hydrodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, C. C.; Wing, O.; Quinn, N.; Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Schumann, G.; Bates, P.

2017-12-01

During an ongoing natural disaster data are required on: (1) the current situation (nowcast); (2) its likely immediate evolution (forecast); and (3) a consistent view post-event of what actually happened (hindcast or reanalysis). We describe methods used to achieve all three tasks for flood inundation during the Harvey and Irma events using a continental scale 2D hydrodynamic model (Wing et al., 2017). The model solves the local inertial form of the Shallow Water equations over a regular grid of 1 arcsecond ( 30m). Terrain data are taken from the USGS National Elevation Dataset with known flood defences represented using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset. Channels are treated as sub-grid scale features using the HydroSHEDS global hydrography data set. The model is driven using river flows, rainfall and coastal water levels. It simulates river flooding in basins > 50 km2, and fluvial and coastal flooding everywhere. Previous wide area validation tests show this model to be capable of matching FEMA maps and USGS local models built with bespoke data with hit rates of 86% and 92% respectively (Wing et al., 2017). Boundary conditions were taken from NOAA QPS data to produce nowcast and forecast simulations in near real time, before updating with NOAA observations to produce the hindcast. During the event simulation results were supplied to major insurers and multi-nationals who used them to estimate their likely capital exposure and to mitigate flood damage to their infrastructure whilst the event was underway. Simulations were validated against modelled flood footprints computed by FEMA and USACE, and composite satellite imagery produced by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. For the Harvey event, hit rates ranged from 60-84% against these data sources, but a lack of metadata meant it was difficult to perform like-for-like comparisons. The satellite data also appeared to miss known flooding in urban areas that was picked up in the models. Despite these limitations, the validation was able to pick our areas, notably along the Colorado River near Houston, where our model under-performed and identify areas for future development. The study shows that high resolution near real-time inundation predictions over very large areas during complex events with multiple flood drivers are now a reality.

Exploring the Use of Radar for Physically-Based Nowcasting of Lightning Cessation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Elise V.; Petersen, Walter A.; Carey, Lawrence D.

2011-01-01

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to enable improved nowcasting of lightning cessation. This project centers on use of dual-polarimetric radar capabilities, and in particular, the new C-band dual polarimetric weather radar acquired by the 45WS. Special emphasis is placed on the development of a physically-based operational algorithm to predict lightning cessation. While previous studies have developed statistically based lightning cessation algorithms driven primarily by trending in the actual total lightning flash rate, we believe that dual polarimetric radar variables offer the possibility to improve existing algorithms through the inclusion of physically meaningful trends reflecting interactions between in-cloud electric fields and ice-microphysics. Specifically, decades of polarimetric radar research using propagation differential phase has demonstrated the presence of distinct phase and ice crystal alignment signatures in the presence of strong electric fields associated with lightning. One question yet to be addressed is: To what extent can propagation phase-based ice-crystal alignment signatures be used to nowcast the cessation of lightning activity in a given storm? Accordingly, data from the UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) along with the NASA-MSFC North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are used in this study to investigate the radar signatures present before and after lightning cessation. Thus far our case study results suggest that the negative differential phase shift signature weakens and disappears after the analyzed storms ceased lightning production (i.e., after the last lightning flash occurred). This is a key observation because it suggests that while strong electric fields may still have been present, the lightning cessation signature was encompassed in the period of the polarimetric negative phase shift signature. To the extent this behavior is repeatable in other cases, even if only in a substantial fraction of those cases, the analysis suggests that differential propagation phase may prove to be a useful parameter for future lightning cessation algorithms. Indeed, a preliminary analysis of 15+ cases has shown additional indications of the weakening and disappearance of this ice alignment signature with lightning cessation. A summary of these case-study results is presented.

A new regional RADAR network for nowcasting applications: the RESMAR achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonini, Andrea; Melani, Samantha; Mazza, Alessandro; Ortolani, Alberto; Gozzini, Bernardo; Corongiu, Manuela; Cristofori, Simone

2013-04-01

Monitoring weather phenomena from radar has an essential role in nowcasting applications. As one of the most useful sources of quantitative precipitation estimation, rainfall radar analysis can be a very useful research tool in supporting methods for rainfall forecasting. Its short-term prediction is often needed in various meteorological and hydrological applications where accurate prediction of rainfall is essential from national service and civil protection forecasting up to agriculture and urban issues. Very recently, Tuscany region (central Italy) is equipped with two X-band radars with a maximum range of 108 km, a beam width of 3° and a high spatial resolution (i.e., radial resolution up to 90m), located in Livorno and Cima del Monte (Elba island) sites. The first system is property of Livorno's port Authority, the second one of Consorzio LaMMA (Laboratory of Monitoring and Environmental Modelling for the sustainable development) who has installed it in the framework of "RESMAR - Environmental Resources in the MARitime Space" activities, a strategic project, financed in the framework of the European Cross-Border Cooperation Programme Italy-France "Maritime", coordinated by the Liguria Region Administration. Both systems are managed by LaMMA. The cross-border sharing of such relevant meteorological observation instruments and the integration of these data with existing tools and methodologies is intended to improve operational regional weather services in nowcasting activities and their impacts on the territory, as those related to LaMMA daily issues. This sharing is widely promoted within RESMAR project between the different partner regions (ARPA-Sardinia, Meteo-France and Liguria). The integration of these data with other complementary and ancillary measurements is also needed to increase the reliability and accuracy of radar measurements in view of both a better meteorological phenomena understanding and quantitative precipitation estimation. The use of satellite data largely improves the spatial and temporal information on the events, filling up the gaps of uneven data distribution; for this issue LaMMA has multi-year skills in the acquisition and processing of geostationary and polar satellites. The regional raingauge network and meteorological stations will be instead used to obtain useful information both to calibration (as those related to radar reflectivity - rain rate relationships) and validation processes. The radar system and its mosaicking will be presented, as well as some preliminary products.

Real Time Earthquake Information System in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doi, K.; Kato, T.

2003-12-01

An early earthquake notification system in Japan had been developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a governmental organization responsible for issuing earthquake information and tsunami forecasts. The system was primarily developed for prompt provision of a tsunami forecast to the public with locating an earthquake and estimating its magnitude as quickly as possible. Years after, a system for a prompt provision of seismic intensity information as indices of degrees of disasters caused by strong ground motion was also developed so that concerned governmental organizations can decide whether it was necessary for them to launch emergency response or not. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs. 1) Prompt report of occurrence of a large earthquake and major seismic intensities caused by the earthquake in about two minutes after the earthquake occurrence. 2) Tsunami forecast in around three minutes. 3) Information on expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around five minutes. 4) Information on a hypocenter and a magnitude of the earthquake, the seismic intensity at each observation station, the times of high tides in addition to the expected tsunami arrival times in 5-7 minutes. To issue information above, JMA has established; - An advanced nationwide seismic network with about 180 stations for seismic wave observation and about 3,400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation including about 2,800 seismic intensity stations maintained by local governments, - Data telemetry networks via landlines and partly via a satellite communication link, - Real-time data processing techniques, for example, the automatic calculation of earthquake location and magnitude, the database driven method for quantitative tsunami estimation, and - Dissemination networks, via computer-to-computer communications and facsimile through dedicated telephone lines. JMA operationally monitors earthquake data and analyzes earthquake activities and tsunami occurrence round-the-clock on a real-time basis. In addition to the above, JMA has been developing a system of Nowcast Earthquake Information which can provide its users with occurrence of an earthquake prior to arrival of strong ground motion for a decade. Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, is preparing a demonstrative experiment in collaboration with JMA, for a better utilization of Nowcast Earthquake Information to apply actual measures to reduce earthquake disasters caused by strong ground motion.

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haupt, Sue Ellen

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solarmore » power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.« less

Ocean Nowcast/Forecast Systems for Naval Undersea Capability

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

Tonkin to the Taiwan Strait is consistently nearly 70 m deep, averaging 150 km in width; the central deep basin is 1900 km along its major axis...shaped basin in the center, and numerous reef islands 5 and underwater plateaus scattered throughout. The shelf that extends from the Gulf of...connection between southeastern Asia, Malaysia, Sumatra , Java, and Borneo and reaches 100 m depth in the middle; the center of the Gulf of Thailand is about

Data Analysis and Modeling to Support NOWCAST and Forecast Activities at the Fallon Naval Air Station

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

Parvin, D. Koracin, P. Remagnino, A. Nefian, G. Meenakshisundaram, V. Pascucci, J. Zara , J. Molineros, H . Thiesel, and T. Malzbender, Eds., 2006...Remagnino, A. Nefian, G. Meenakshisundaram, V. Pascucci, J. Zara , J. Molineros, H . Thiesel, and T. Malzbender, Eds., 2006: Advances in Visual...indicated a sudden gusty spell of wind, rising to more than 10 m s-1 on 28 February 2002. These conditions are faced by 2 the Fallon

DREAM: An Integrated Space Radiation Nowcast System for Natural and Nuclear Radiation Belts

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

requires a model of the global geomagnetic field which is represented by the red module in figure 1. The simplest assumption of a tilted dipole field...is grossly inadequate to describe the distorted, dynamic geomagnetic field. Stretching and compression of the field changes the both the local field... geomagnetic field ranging from static models like [Olsen and Pfitzer, 1974] to global MHD models. We believe the best results can be obtained with a

Satellite-Based Assessment of Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Hazard for Situational Awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas

2018-03-01

Determining the time, location, and severity of natural disaster impacts is fundamental to formulating mitigation strategies, appropriate and timely responses, and robust recovery plans. A Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed to indicate potential landslide activity in near real-time. LHASA combines satellite-based precipitation estimates with a landslide susceptibility map derived from information on slope, geology, road networks, fault zones, and forest loss. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are used to identify rainfall conditions from the past 7 days. When rainfall is considered to be extreme and susceptibility values are moderate to very high, a "nowcast" is issued to indicate the times and places where landslides are more probable. When LHASA nowcasts were evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog, the probability of detection (POD) ranged from 8% to 60%, depending on the evaluation period, precipitation product used, and the size of the spatial and temporal window considered around each landslide point. Applications of the LHASA system are also discussed, including how LHASA is used to estimate long-term trends in potential landslide activity at a nearly global scale and how it can be used as a tool to support disaster risk assessment. LHASA is intended to provide situational awareness of landslide hazards in near real-time, providing a flexible, open-source framework that can be adapted to other spatial and temporal scales based on data availability.

Nowcasting Beach Advisories at Ohio Lake Erie Beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.; Darner, Robert A.

2007-01-01

Data were collected during the recreational season of 2007 to test and refine predictive models at three Lake Erie beaches. In addition to E. coli concentrations, field personnel collected or compiled data for environmental and water-quality variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations including turbidity, wave height, water temperature, lake level, rainfall, and antecedent dry days and wet days. At Huntington (Bay Village) and Edgewater (Cleveland) during 2007, the models provided correct responses 82.7 and 82.1 percent of the time; these percentages were greater than percentages obtained using the previous day?s E. coli concentrations (current method). In contrast, at Villa Angela during 2007, the model provided correct responses only 61.3 percent of the days monitored. The data from 2007 were added to existing datasets and the larger datasets were split into two (Huntington) or three (Edgewater) segments by date based on the occurrence of false negatives and positives (named ?season 1, season 2, season 3?). Models were developed for dated segments and for combined datasets. At Huntington, the summed responses for separate best models for seasons 1 and 2 provided a greater percentage of correct responses (85.6 percent) than the one combined best model (83.1 percent). Similar results were found for Edgewater. Water resource managers will determine how to apply these models to the Internet-based ?nowcast? system for issuing water-quality advisories during 2008.

Near-Real Time Satellite-Retrieved Cloud and Surface Properties for Weather and Aviation Safety Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnis, Patrick; Smith, William L., Jr.; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Nguyen, Louis; Palikonda, Rabindra; Hong, Gang; Trepte, Qing Z.; Chee, Thad; Scarino, Benjamin; Spangenberg, Douglas A.;

Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite.

PubMed

Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei

2015-01-01

The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN using images of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN.

Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei

2015-01-01

The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN usingimages of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN. PMID:26447470

Exploring a Physically Based Tool for Lightning Cessation: A Preliminary Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Elise V.; Petersen, Walter a.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Deierling, Wiebke

2010-01-01

The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UA Huntsville) and NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to enable improved nowcasting of lightning cessation. The project centers on use of dual-polarimetric radar capabilities, and in particular, the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar acquired by the 45WS. Special emphasis is placed on the development of a physically based operational algorithm to predict lightning cessation. While previous studies have developed statistically based lightning cessation algorithms, we believe that dual-polarimetric radar variables offer the possibility to improve existing algorithms through the inclusion of physically meaningful trends reflecting interactions between in-cloud electric fields and microphysics. Specifically, decades of polarimetric radar research using propagation differential phase has demonstrated the presence of distinct phase and ice crystal alignment signatures in the presence of strong electric fields associated with lightning. One question yet to be addressed is: To what extent can these ice-crystal alignment signatures be used to nowcast the cessation of lightning activity in a given storm? Accordingly, data from the UA Huntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) along with the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are used in this study to investigate the radar signatures present before and after lightning cessation. A summary of preliminary results will be presented.

Exploring a Physically Based Tool for Lightning Cessation: Preliminary Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Elsie V.; Petersen, Walter A.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Gatlin, Patrick N.

2010-01-01

The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) and NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to enable improved nowcasting of lightning cessation. The project centers on use of dual-polarimetric radar capabilities, and in particular, the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar acquired by the 45WS. Special emphasis is placed on the development of a physically based operational algorithm to predict lightning cessation. While previous studies have developed statistically based lightning cessation algorithms, we believe that dual-polarimetric radar variables offer the possibility to improve existing algorithms through the inclusion of physically meaningful trends reflecting interactions between in-cloud electric fields and microphysics. Specifically, decades of polarimetric radar research using propagation differential phase has demonstrated the presence of distinct phase and ice crystal alignment signatures in the presence of strong electric fields associated with lightning. One question yet to be addressed is: To what extent can these ice-crystal alignment signatures be used to nowcast the cessation of lightning activity in a given storm? Accordingly, data from the UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) along with the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are used in this study to investigate the radar signatures present before and after lightning cessation. A summary of preliminary results will be presented.

Near-Real Time Satellite-Retrieved Cloud and Surface Properties for Weather and Aviation Safety Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnis, P.; Smith, W., Jr.; Bedka, K. M.; Nguyen, L.; Palikonda, R.; Hong, G.; Trepte, Q.; Chee, T.; Scarino, B. R.; Spangenberg, D.; Sun-Mack, S.; Fleeger, C.; Ayers, J. K.; Chang, F. L.; Heck, P. W.

2014-12-01

Cloud properties determined from satellite imager radiances provide a valuable source of information for nowcasting and weather forecasting. In recent years, it has been shown that assimilation of cloud top temperature, optical depth, and total water path can increase the accuracies of weather analyses and forecasts. Aircraft icing conditions can be accurately diagnosed in near-real time (NRT) retrievals of cloud effective particle size, phase, and water path, providing valuable data for pilots. NRT retrievals of surface skin temperature can also be assimilated in numerical weather prediction models to provide more accurate representations of solar heating and longwave cooling at the surface, where convective initiation. These and other applications are being exploited more frequently as the value of NRT cloud data become recognized. At NASA Langley, cloud properties and surface skin temperature are being retrieved in near-real time globally from both geostationary (GEO) and low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellite imagers for weather model assimilation and nowcasting for hazards such as aircraft icing. Cloud data from GEO satellites over North America are disseminated through NCEP, while those data and global LEO and GEO retrievals are disseminated from a Langley website. This paper presents an overview of the various available datasets, provides examples of their application, and discusses the use of the various datasets downstream. Future challenges and areas of improvement are also presented.

Flash flood warnings for ungauged basins based on high-resolution precipitation forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Janet, Bruno

2016-04-01

Early detection of flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, is still challenging due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Also the rapid rising of waters necessarily limits the lead time of warnings to alert communities and activate effective emergency procedures. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km²) ungauged basins based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The current deterministic AIGA system has been run in real-time in the South of France since 2005 and has been tested in the RHYTMME project (rhytmme.irstea.fr/). It ingests the operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France to run a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model at a 1-km² resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. The calibration and regionalization of the hydrologic model has been recently enhanced for implementing the national flash flood warning system for the entire French territory by 2016. To further extend the effective warning lead time, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to ingest Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts. The AROME-NWC system combines the most recent available observations with forecasts from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015). AROME-NWC pre-operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, produced every hour at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon, were provided for 3 significant rain events in September and November 2014 and ingested as time-lagged ensembles. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 185 basins in the South of France showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). Various verification metrics (e.g., Relative Mean Error, Brier Skill Score) show the skill of ensemble precipitation and flow forecasts compared to single-valued persistency benchmarks. Planned enhancements include integrating additional probabilistic NWP products (e.g., AROME precipitation ensembles on longer forecast horizon), accounting for and reducing hydrologic uncertainties from the model parameters and initial conditions via data assimilation, and developing a comprehensive observational and post-event damage database to determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi: 10.1002/qj.2463

Validation of the 1/12 degrees Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-04

IBM Power 6 ( Davinci ) at NAVOCEANO with a 2 hr time step for the ice model and a 30 min time step for the ocean model. All model boundaries are...run using 320 processors on the Navy DSRC IBM Power 6 ( Davinci ) at NAVOCEANO. A typical one-day hindcast takes approximately 1.0 wall clock hour...meter. As more observations become available, further studies of ice draft will be used as a validation tool . The IABP program archived 102 Argos

Validation of the 1/12 deg Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-04

IBM Power 6 ( Davinci ) at NAVOCEANO with a 2 hr time step for the ice model and a 30 min time step for the ocean model. All model boundaries are...run using 320 processors on the Navy DSRC IBM Power 6 ( Davinci ) at NAVOCEANO. A typical one-day hindcast takes approximately 1.0 wall clock hour...meter. As more observations become available, further studies of ice draft will be used as a validation tool . The IABP program archived 102 Argos

Hyperspectral Remote Sensing of the Coastal Ocean: Adaptive Sampling and Forecasting of In situ Optical Properties

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-30

We are developing an integrated rapid environmental assessment capability that will be used to feed an ocean nowcast/forecast system. The goal is to develop a capacity for predicting the dynamics in inherent optical properties in coastal waters. This is being accomplished by developing an integrated observation system that is being coupled to a data assimilative hydrodynamic bio-optical ecosystem model. The system was used adaptively to calibrate hyperspectral remote sensing sensors in optically complex nearshore coastal waters.

Probabilistic verification of cloud fraction from three different products with CALIPSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, B. J.; Descombes, G.; Snyder, C.

2017-12-01

In this study, we present how Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) can be used for probabilistic verification of cloud fraction, and apply this probabilistic approach to three cloud fraction products: a) The Air Force Weather (AFW) World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA), b) Satellite Cloud Observations and Radiative Property retrieval Systems (SatCORPS) from NASA Langley Research Center, and c) Multi-sensor Advection Diffusion nowCast (MADCast) from NCAR. Although they differ in their details, both WWMCA and SatCORPS retrieve cloud fraction from satellite observations, mainly of infrared radiances. MADCast utilizes in addition a short-range forecast of cloud fraction (provided by the Model for Prediction Across Scales, assuming cloud fraction is advected as a tracer) and a column-by-column particle filter implemented within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data-assimilation system. The probabilistic verification considers the retrieved or analyzed cloud fractions as predicting the probability of cloud at any location within a grid cell and the 5-km vertical feature mask (VFM) from CALIPSO level-2 products as a point observation of cloud.

Development of a coastal information system for the management of Jeddah coastal waters in Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayerle, R.; Al-Subhi, A.; Fernández Jaramillo, J.; Salama, A.; Bruss, G.; Zubier, K.; Runte, K.; Turki, A.; Hesse, K.; Jastania, H.; Ladwig, N.; Mudarris, M.

2016-04-01

This paper presents results of the development and application of a web-based information system, Jeddah CIS, for assisting decision makers in the management of Jeddah coastal waters, in Saudi Arabia. The system will support coastal planning, management of navigation and tackle pollution due to accidents. The system was developed primarily to nowcast in quasi-real time and to deliver short-term forecasts of water levels, current velocities and waves with high spatial and temporal resolution for the area near Jeddah. Therefor it will hasten response when adverse weather conditions prevail. The Jeddah-CIS integrates sensors transmitting in real time, meteorological, oceanographic and water quality parameters and operational models for flow and waves. It also provides interactive tools using advanced visualization techniques to facilitate dissemination of information. The system relies on open source software and has been designed to facilitate the integration of additional components for enhanced information processing, data evaluation and generation of higher water level, current velocity and wave for the general public. Jeddah-CIS has been operational since 2013. Extensions of the system to speed operations and improving the accuracy of the predictions to the public are currently underway.

A generic approach for the development of short-term predictions of Escherichia coli and biotoxins in shellfish

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Wiebke; Evers-King, Hayley L.; Campos, Carlos J. A.; Jones, Darren B.; Miller, Peter I.; Davidson, Keith; Shutler, Jamie D.

2018-01-01

Microbiological contamination or elevated marine biotoxin concentrations within shellfish can result in temporary closure of shellfish aquaculture harvesting, leading to financial loss for the aquaculture business and a potential reduction in consumer confidence in shellfish products. We present a method for predicting short-term variations in shellfish concentrations of Escherichia coli and biotoxin (okadaic acid and its derivates dinophysistoxins and pectenotoxins). The approach was evaluated for 2 contrasting shellfish harvesting areas. Through a meta-data analysis and using environmental data (in situ, satellite observations and meteorological nowcasts and forecasts), key environmental drivers were identified and used to develop models to predict E. coli and biotoxin concentrations within shellfish. Models were trained and evaluated using independent datasets, and the best models were identified based on the model exhibiting the lowest root mean square error. The best biotoxin model was able to provide 1 wk forecasts with an accuracy of 86%, a 0% false positive rate and a 0% false discovery rate (n = 78 observations) when used to predict the closure of shellfish beds due to biotoxin. The best E. coli models were used to predict the European hygiene classification of the shellfish beds to an accuracy of 99% (n = 107 observations) and 98% (n = 63 observations) for a bay (St Austell Bay) and an estuary (Turnaware Bar), respectively. This generic approach enables high accuracy short-term farm-specific forecasts, based on readily accessible environmental data and observations. PMID:29805719

Flood Nowcasting With Linear Catchment Models, Radar and Kalman Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pegram, Geoff; Sinclair, Scott

A pilot study using real time rainfall data as input to a parsimonious linear distributed flood forecasting model is presented. The aim of the study is to deliver an operational system capable of producing flood forecasts, in real time, for the Mgeni and Mlazi catchments near the city of Durban in South Africa. The forecasts can be made at time steps which are of the order of a fraction of the catchment response time. To this end, the model is formulated in Finite Difference form in an equation similar to an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model; it is this formulation which provides the required computational efficiency. The ARMA equation is a discretely coincident form of the State-Space equations that govern the response of an arrangement of linear reservoirs. This results in a functional relationship between the reservoir response con- stants and the ARMA coefficients, which guarantees stationarity of the ARMA model. Input to the model is a combined "Best Estimate" spatial rainfall field, derived from a combination of weather RADAR and Satellite rainfield estimates with point rain- fall given by a network of telemetering raingauges. Several strategies are employed to overcome the uncertainties associated with forecasting. Principle among these are the use of optimal (double Kalman) filtering techniques to update the model states and parameters in response to current streamflow observations and the application of short term forecasting techniques to provide future estimates of the rainfield as input to the model.

Tethered Satellites as an Enabling Platform for Operational Space Weather Monitoring Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilchrist, Brian E.; Krause, Linda Habash; Gallagher, Dennis Lee; Bilen, Sven Gunnar; Fuhrhop, Keith; Hoegy, Walt R.; Inderesan, Rohini; Johnson, Charles; Owens, Jerry Keith; Powers, Joseph;

On the usage of divergence nudging in the DMI nowcasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korsholm, Ulrik; Petersen, Claus; Hansen Sass, Bent; Woetmann Nielsen, Niels; Getreuer Jensen, David; Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Vedel, Henrik

2014-05-01

DMI has recently proposed a new method for nudging radar reflectivity CAPPI products into their operational nowcasting system. The system is based on rapid update cycles (with hourly frequency) with the High Resolution Limited Area Model combined with surface and upper air analysis at each initial time. During the first 1.5 hours of a simulation the model dynamical state is nudged in accordance with the CAPPI product after which a free forecast is produced with a forecast length of 12 hours. The nudging method is based on the assumption that precipitation is forced by low level moisture convergence and an enhanced moisture source will lead to convective triggering of the model cloud scheme. If the model under-predicts precipitation before cut-off horizontal low level divergence is nudged towards an estimated value. These pseudo observations are calculated from the CAPPI product by assuming a specific vertical profile of the change in divergence field. The strength of the nudging is proportional to the difference between observed and modelled precipitation. When over-predicting, the low level moisture source is reduced, and in-cloud moisture is nudged towards environmental values. Results have been analysed in terms of the fractions skill score and the ability of the nudging method to position the precipitation cells correctly is discussed. The ability of the model to retain memory of the precipitation systems in the free forecast has also been investigated and examples of combining the nudging method with extrapolated reflectivity fields are also shown.

A Real-time 1/16° Global Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shriver, J. F.; Rhodes, R. C.; Hurlburt, H. E.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Metzger, E. J.; Smedstad, O. M.; Kara, A. B.

2001-05-01

A 1/16° eddy-resolving global ocean prediction system that uses the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) has been transitioned to the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO), Stennis Space Center, MS. The system gives a real time view of the ocean down to the 50-100 mile scale of ocean eddies and the meandering of ocean currents and fronts, a view with unprecedented resolution and clarity, and demonstrated forecast skill for a month or more for many ocean features. It has been running in real time at NAVO since 19 Oct 2000 with assimilation of real-time altimeter sea surface height (SSH) data (currently ERS-2, GFO and TOPEX/POSEIDON) and sea surface temperature (SST). The model is updated daily and 4-day forecasts are made daily. 30-day forecasts are made once a week. Nowcasts and forecasts using this model are viewable on the web, including SSH, SST and 30-day forecast verification statistics for many zoom regions. The NRL web address is http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom/index.html. The NAVO web address is: http://www.navo.navy.mil. Click on "Operational Products", then "Product Search Form", then "Product Type View", then select "Model Navy Layered Ocean Model" and a region and click on "Submit Query". This system is used at NAVO for ocean front and eddy analyses and predictions and to provide accurate sea surface height for use in computing synthetic temperature and salinity profiles, among other applications.

Automated Detection and Analysis of Interplanetary Shocks with Real-Time Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorotnikov, V.; Smith, C. W.; Hu, Q.; Szabo, A.; Skoug, R. M.; Cohen, C. M.

2006-12-01

The ACE real-time data stream provides web-based now-casting capabilities for solar wind conditions upstream of Earth. Our goal is to provide an automated code that finds and analyzes interplanetary shocks as they occur for possible real-time application to space weather nowcasting. Shock analysis algorithms based on the Rankine-Hugoniot jump conditions exist and are in wide-spread use today for the interactive analysis of interplanetary shocks yielding parameters such as shock speed and propagation direction and shock strength in the form of compression ratios. Although these codes can be automated in a reasonable manner to yield solutions not far from those obtained by user-directed interactive analysis, event detection presents an added obstacle and the first step in a fully automated analysis. We present a fully automated Rankine-Hugoniot analysis code that can scan the ACE science data, find shock candidates, analyze the events, obtain solutions in good agreement with those derived from interactive applications, and dismiss false positive shock candidates on the basis of the conservation equations. The intent is to make this code available to NOAA for use in real-time space weather applications. The code has the added advantage of being able to scan spacecraft data sets to provide shock solutions for use outside real-time applications and can easily be applied to science-quality data sets from other missions. Use of the code for this purpose will also be explored.

Local Data Integration in East Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Manobianco, John T.

1999-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit has configured a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) for east central Florida which assimilates in-situ and remotely-sensed observational data into a series of high-resolution gridded analyses. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short-ten-n forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models such as the Rapid Update Cycle and Eta models. LDIS combines all available data to produce grid analyses of primary variables (wind, temperature, etc.) at specified temporal and spatial resolutions. These analyses of primary variables can be used to compute diagnostic quantities such as vorticity and divergence. This paper demonstrates the utility of LDIS over east central Florida for a warm season case study. The evolution of a significant thunderstorm outflow boundary is depicted through horizontal and vertical cross section plots of wind speed, divergence, and circulation. In combination with a suitable visualization too], LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving mesoscale weather than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time.

The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zank, G. P.; Spann, J.

2014-01-01

We outline a plan to develop a physics based predictive toolset RISCS to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 AU; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements.

Nowcasting of rainfall and of combined sewage flow in urban drainage systems.

PubMed

Achleitner, Stefan; Fach, Stefan; Einfalt, Thomas; Rauch, Wolfgang

2009-01-01

Nowcasting of rainfall may be used additionally to online rain measurements to optimize the operation of urban drainage systems. Uncertainties quoted for the rain volume are in the range of 5% to 10% mean square error (MSE), where for rain intensities 45% to 75% MSE are noted. For larger forecast periods up to 3 hours, the uncertainties will increase up to some hundred percents. Combined with the growing number of real time control concepts in sewer systems, rainfall forecast is used more and more in urban drainage systems. Therefore it is of interest how the uncertainties influence the final evaluation of a defined objective function. Uncertainty levels associated with the forecast itself are not necessarily transferable to resulting uncertainties in the catchment's flow dynamics. The aim of this paper is to analyse forecasts of rainfall and specific sewer output variables. For this study the combined sewer system of the city of Linz in the northern part of Austria located on the Danube has been selected. The city itself represents a total area of 96 km2 with 39 municipalities connected. It was found that the available weather radar data leads to large deviations in the forecast for precipitation at forecast horizons larger than 90 minutes. The same is true for sewer variables such a CSO overflow for small sub-catchments. Although the results improve for larger spatial scales, acceptable levels at forecast horizons larger than 90 minutes are not reached.

Nowcast of thunderstorm and typhoon activity based on lightning detection and flexible operation of micro-satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Y.

2016-12-01

It has become known that lightning activity represents the thunderstorm activity, namely, the intensity and area of precipitation and/or updraft. Thunderstorm is also important as a proxy of the energy input from ocean to atmosphere in typhoon, meaning that if we could monitor the thunderstorm with lightning we could predict the maximum wind velocity near the typhoon center by one or two days before. Constructing ELF and VLF radio wave observation network in Southeast Asia (AVON) and a regional dense network of automated weather station in a big city, we plan to establish the monitoring system for thunderstorm development in western pacific warm pool (WPWP) where typhoon is formed and in detail in big city area. On the other hand, some developing countries in SE-Asia are going to own micro-satellites dedicated to meteorological remote sensing. Making use of the lightning activity data measured by the ground-based networks, and information on 3-D structures of thunderclouds observed by the flexible on-demand operation of the remote-sensing micro-satellites, we would establish a new methodology to obtain very detail semi-real time information that cannot be achieved only with existing observation facilities, such as meteorological radar or large meteorological satellite. Using this new system we try to issue nowcast for the local thunderstorm and for typhoons. The first attempt will be carried out in Metro Manila in Philippines and WPWP as one of the SATREPS projects.

Stochastic multifractal forecasts: from theory to applications in radar meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva Rocha Paz, Igor; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2017-04-01

Radar meteorology has been very inspiring for the development of multifractals. It has enabled to work on a 3D+1 field with many challenging applications, including predictability and stochastic forecasts, especially nowcasts that are particularly demanding in computation speed. Multifractals are indeed parsimonious stochastic models that require only a few physically meaningful parameters, e.g. Universal Multifractal (UM) parameters, because they are based on non-trivial symmetries of nonlinear equations. We first recall the physical principles of multifractal predictability and predictions, which are so closely related that the latter correspond to the most optimal predictions in the multifractal framework. Indeed, these predictions are based on the fundamental duality of a relatively slow decay of large scale structures and an injection of new born small scale structures. Overall, this triggers a mulfitractal inverse cascade of unpredictability. With the help of high resolution rainfall radar data (≈ 100 m), we detail and illustrate the corresponding stochastic algorithm in the framework of (causal) UM Fractionally Integrated Flux models (UM-FIF), where the rainfall field is obtained with the help of a fractional integration of a conservative multifractal flux, whose average is strictly scale invariant (like the energy flux in a dynamic cascade). Whereas, the introduction of small structures is rather straightforward, the deconvolution of the past of the field is more subtle, but nevertheless achievable, to obtain the past of the flux. Then, one needs to only fractionally integrate a multiplicative combination of past and future fluxes to obtain a nowcast realisation.

The Navy's First Seasonal Ice Forecasts using the Navy's Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preller, Ruth

2013-04-01

As conditions in the Arctic continue to change, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed an interest in longer-term seasonal ice extent forecasts. The Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS), developed by the Oceanography Division of NRL, was run in forward model mode, without assimilation, to estimate the minimum sea ice extent for September 2012. The model was initialized with varying assimilative ACNFS analysis fields (June 1, July 1, August 1 and September 1, 2012) and run forward for nine simulations using the archived Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) atmospheric forcing fields from 2003-2011. The mean ice extent in September, averaged across all ensemble members was the projected summer ice extent. These results were submitted to the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook project (http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook). The ACNFS is a ~3.5 km coupled ice-ocean model that produces 5 day forecasts of the Arctic sea ice state in all ice covered areas in the northern hemisphere (poleward of 40° N). The ocean component is the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and is coupled to the Los Alamos National Laboratory Community Ice CodE (CICE) via the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The ocean and ice models are run in an assimilative cycle with the Navy's Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system. Currently the ACNFS is being transitioned to operations at the Naval Oceanographic Office.

Short-term ensemble radar rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codo de Oliveira, M.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

2016-12-01

Flooding is a very common natural disaster around the world, putting local population and economy at risk. Forecasting floods several hours ahead and issuing warnings are of main importance to permit proper response in emergency situations. However, it is important to know the uncertainties related to the rainfall forecasting in order to produce more reliable forecasts. Nowcasting models (short-term rainfall forecasts) are able to produce high spatial and temporal resolution predictions that are useful in hydrological applications. Nonetheless, they are subject to uncertainties mainly due to the nowcasting model used, errors in radar rainfall estimation, temporal development of the velocity field and to the fact that precipitation processes such as growth and decay are not taken into account. In this study an ensemble generation scheme using rain gauge data as a reference to estimate radars errors is used to produce forecasts with up to 3h lead-time. The ensembles try to assess in a realistic way the residual uncertainties that remain even after correction algorithms are applied in the radar data. The ensembles produced are compered to a stochastic ensemble generator. Furthermore, the rainfall forecast output was used as an input in a hydrodynamic sewer network model and also in hydrological model for catchments of different sizes in north England. A comparative analysis was carried of how was carried out to assess how the radar uncertainties propagate into these models. The first named author is grateful to CAPES - Ciencia sem Fronteiras for funding this PhD research.

Pre-Launch GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Boccippio, D. J.; Christian, H. J.; Koshak, W. J.; Petersen, W. A.

2005-01-01

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a new instrument planned for GOES-R that will greatly improve storm hazard nowcasting and increase warning lead time day and night. Daytime detection of lightning is a particularly significant technological advance given the fact that the solar illuminated cloud-top signal can exceed the intensity of the lightning signal by a factor of one hundred. Our approach is detailed across three broad themes which include: Data Processing Algorithm Readiness, Forecast Applications, and Radiance Data Mining. These themes address how the data will be processed and distributed, and the algorithms and models for developing, producing, and using the data products. These pre-launch risk reduction activities will accelerate the operational and research use of the GLM data once GOES-R begins on-orbit operations. The GLM will provide unprecedented capabilities for tracking thunderstorms and earlier warning of impending severe and hazardous weather threats. By providing direct information on lightning initiation, propagation, extent, and rate, the GLM will also capture the updraft dynamics and life cycle of convective storms, as well as internal ice precipitation processes. The GLM provides information directly from the heart of the thunderstorm as opposed to cloud-top only. Nowcasting applications enabled by the GLM data will expedite the warning and response time of emergency management systems, improve the dispatch of electric power utility repair crews, and improve airline routing around thunderstorms thereby improving safety and efficiency, saving fuel and reducing delays. The use of GLM data will assist the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Forest Service in quickly detecting lightning ground strikes that have a high probability of causing fires. Finally, GLM data will help assess the role of thunderstorms and deep convection in global climate, and will improve regional air quality and global chemistry/climate modeling. The GLM has a robust design that benefits and improves upon its strong heritage of NASA-developed LEO predecessors, the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). GLM will have a substantially larger number of pixels within the focal plane, two lens systems, and multiple Real-Time Event Processors REPS for on-board event detection and data compression to provide continuous observations of the Americas and adjacent oceans.

Estimating the snowfall limit in alpine and pre-alpine valleys: A local evaluation of operational approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fehlmann, Michael; Gascón, Estíbaliz; Rohrer, Mario; Schwarb, Manfred; Stoffel, Markus

2018-05-01

The snowfall limit has important implications for different hazardous processes associated with prolonged or heavy precipitation such as flash floods, rain-on-snow events and freezing precipitation. To increase preparedness and to reduce risk in such situations, early warning systems are frequently used to monitor and predict precipitation events at different temporal and spatial scales. However, in alpine and pre-alpine valleys, the estimation of the snowfall limit remains rather challenging. In this study, we characterize uncertainties related to snowfall limit for different lead times based on local measurements of a vertically pointing micro rain radar (MRR) and a disdrometer in the Zulg valley, Switzerland. Regarding the monitoring, we show that the interpolation of surface temperatures tends to overestimate the altitude of the snowfall limit and can thus lead to highly uncertain estimates of liquid precipitation in the catchment. This bias is much smaller in the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which integrates surface station and remotely sensed data as well as outputs of a numerical weather prediction model. To reduce systematic error, we perform a bias correction based on local MRR measurements and thereby demonstrate the added value of such measurements for the estimation of liquid precipitation in the catchment. Regarding the nowcasting, we show that the INCA system provides good estimates up to 6 h ahead and is thus considered promising for operational hydrological applications. Finally, we explore the medium-range forecasting of precipitation type, especially with respect to rain-on-snow events. We show for a selected case study that the probability for a certain precipitation type in an ensemble-based forecast is more persistent than the respective type in the high-resolution forecast (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF IFS). In this case study, the ensemble-based forecast could be used to anticipate such an event up to 7-8 days ahead, whereas the use of the HRES is limited to a lead time of 4-5 days. For the different lead times investigated, we point out possibilities of considering uncertainties in snowfall limit and precipitation type estimates so as to increase preparedness to risk situations.

Integrating Smart Health in the US Health Care System: Infodemiology Study of Asthma Monitoring in the Google Era

PubMed Central

Sampri, Alexia; Sypsa, Karla; Tsagarakis, Konstantinos P

2018-01-01

Background With the internet’s penetration and use constantly expanding, this vast amount of information can be employed in order to better assess issues in the US health care system. Google Trends, a popular tool in big data analytics, has been widely used in the past to examine interest in various medical and health-related topics and has shown great potential in forecastings, predictions, and nowcastings. As empirical relationships between online queries and human behavior have been shown to exist, a new opportunity to explore the behavior toward asthma—a common respiratory disease—is present. Objective This study aimed at forecasting the online behavior toward asthma and examined the correlations between queries and reported cases in order to explore the possibility of nowcasting asthma prevalence in the United States using online search traffic data. Methods Applying Holt-Winters exponential smoothing to Google Trends time series from 2004 to 2015 for the term “asthma,” forecasts for online queries at state and national levels are estimated from 2016 to 2020 and validated against available Google query data from January 2016 to June 2017. Correlations among yearly Google queries and between Google queries and reported asthma cases are examined. Results Our analysis shows that search queries exhibit seasonality within each year and the relationships between each 2 years’ queries are statistically significant (P<.05). Estimated forecasting models for a 5-year period (2016 through 2020) for Google queries are robust and validated against available data from January 2016 to June 2017. Significant correlations were found between (1) online queries and National Health Interview Survey lifetime asthma (r=–.82, P=.001) and current asthma (r=–.77, P=.004) rates from 2004 to 2015 and (2) between online queries and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System lifetime (r=–.78, P=.003) and current asthma (r=–.79, P=.002) rates from 2004 to 2014. The correlations are negative, but lag analysis to identify the period of response cannot be employed until short-interval data on asthma prevalence are made available. Conclusions Online behavior toward asthma can be accurately predicted, and significant correlations between online queries and reported cases exist. This method of forecasting Google queries can be used by health care officials to nowcast asthma prevalence by city, state, or nationally, subject to future availability of daily, weekly, or monthly data on reported cases. This method could therefore be used for improved monitoring and assessment of the needs surrounding the current population of patients with asthma. PMID:29530839

Storms in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, John W.

2012-11-01

Introduction; The cast of characters; Vignettes of the storm; 1. Two kinds of weather; 2. The saga of the storm; 3. Weather stations in space; 4. Lights in the night: the signature of the storm; 5. A walking tour of the magnetosphere; 6. The sun: where it all begins; 7. Nowcasting and forecasting storms in space; 8. Technology and the risks from storms in space; 9. A conversation with Joe Allen; 10. Manned exploration and space weather hazards; 11. The present and future of space weather forecasting; Mathematical appendix. A closer look; Glossary; Figure captions.

Applications of a shadow camera system for energy meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, Pascal; Wilbert, Stefan; Prahl, Christoph; Garsche, Dominik; Schüler, David; Haase, Thomas; Ramirez, Lourdes; Zarzalejo, Luis; Meyer, Angela; Blanc, Philippe; Pitz-Paal, Robert

2018-02-01

Downward-facing shadow cameras might play a major role in future energy meteorology. Shadow cameras directly image shadows on the ground from an elevated position. They are used to validate other systems (e.g. all-sky imager based nowcasting systems, cloud speed sensors or satellite forecasts) and can potentially provide short term forecasts for solar power plants. Such forecasts are needed for electricity grids with high penetrations of renewable energy and can help to optimize plant operations. In this publication, two key applications of shadow cameras are briefly presented.

Probabilistic rainfall warning system with an interactive user interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koistinen, Jarmo; Hohti, Harri; Kauhanen, Janne; Kilpinen, Juha; Kurki, Vesa; Lauri, Tuomo; Nurmi, Pertti; Rossi, Pekka; Jokelainen, Miikka; Heinonen, Mari; Fred, Tommi; Moisseev, Dmitri; Mäkelä, Antti

2013-04-01

A real time 24/7 automatic alert system is in operational use at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). It consists of gridded forecasts of the exceedance probabilities of rainfall class thresholds in the continuous lead time range of 1 hour to 5 days. Nowcasting up to six hours applies ensemble member extrapolations of weather radar measurements. With 2.8 GHz processors using 8 threads it takes about 20 seconds to generate 51 radar based ensemble members in a grid of 760 x 1226 points. Nowcasting exploits also lightning density and satellite based pseudo rainfall estimates. The latter ones utilize convective rain rate (CRR) estimate from Meteosat Second Generation. The extrapolation technique applies atmospheric motion vectors (AMV) originally developed for upper wind estimation with satellite images. Exceedance probabilities of four rainfall accumulation categories are computed for the future 1 h and 6 h periods and they are updated every 15 minutes. For longer forecasts exceedance probabilities are calculated for future 6 and 24 h periods during the next 4 days. From approximately 1 hour to 2 days Poor man's Ensemble Prediction System (PEPS) is used applying e.g. the high resolution short range Numerical Weather Prediction models HIRLAM and AROME. The longest forecasts apply EPS data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The blending of the ensemble sets from the various forecast sources is performed applying mixing of accumulations with equal exceedance probabilities. The blending system contains a real time adaptive estimator of the predictability of radar based extrapolations. The uncompressed output data are written to file for each member, having total size of 10 GB. Ensemble data from other sources (satellite, lightning, NWP) are converted to the same geometry as the radar data and blended as was explained above. A verification system utilizing telemetering rain gauges has been established. Alert dissemination e.g. for citizens and professional end users applies SMS messages and, in near future, smartphone maps. The present interactive user interface facilitates free selection of alert sites and two warning thresholds (any rain, heavy rain) at any location in Finland. The pilot service was tested by 1000-3000 users during summers 2010 and 2012. As an example of dedicated end-user services gridded exceedance scenarios (of probabilities 5 %, 50 % and 90 %) of hourly rainfall accumulations for the next 3 hours have been utilized as an online input data for the influent model at the Greater Helsinki Wastewater Treatment Plant.

RAMSES: a nowcasting system for mitigating geo-hydrological risk along the railway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriele, Salvatore; Terranova, Oreste G.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Sabatino, Pietro; Brocca, Luca; Laviola, Sante; Baldini, Luca; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Mario M.; Marra, Gian Paolo; Niccoli, Raffaele; Arcuri, Salvatore; Catalano, Filippo; Stassi, Sergio; Baccillieri, Maurizio; Agostino, Mario; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

2016-04-01

In recent years, a number of exceptional rainfall events of short / very short duration (from 15 minutes to about 2 hours) caused incidents and service interruptions due to landslides, collapses of bridges, and erosion of the ballast, along the Calabrian railway. RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot CNR project, recently co-funded by RFI S.p.A. and aimed at mitigating the risk along the railway. Forecasting of weather events responsible of heavy convective rainfall, even when provided with some advance, is not generally performed with reliable localization. In fact, objective limits of the numerical weather prediction derive from grid resolution, often exceeding the size of convective cells. These phenomena, whose recurrence periods seem to show a reduction due to climate changes, affect limited areas and are characterized by a very short life cycle. As a consequence, failures of hydraulic crossings are increasingly being recorded together with landslide-related debris invasion along the drainage network and slopes. RAMSES aims at improving short term (3-6 hours) weather forecasts and ground effects at local scale. The employed approach is base on synergistic and integrated operational tools to provide weather information on small-size basins. The system will also allow to promptly identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on quasi-real time radar and Meteosat data. The extension of the temporal horizon of the forecast up to three hours will be performed by using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) model. This latter employs, as a "first guess", the output of the WRF numerical model: such analyses are updated and improved by means of observational data from different instruments (e.g. on land weather stations, radar, satellites, etc.). Finally, the assessment of ground effects will be accomplished for selected study areas, by means of landslide susceptibility mapping combined with hydrological, rainfall-runoff and hydraulic flow modeling.

Auroras Now! - Auroral nowcasting service for Hotels in Finnish Lapland and its performance during winter 2003-2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauristie, K.; Mälkki, A.; Pulkkinen, A.; Nevanlinna, H.; Ketola, A.; Tulkki, V.; Raita, T.; Blanco, A.

2004-12-01

European Space Agency is currently supporting 17 Service Development Activities (SDA) within its Space Weather Pilot Project. Auroras Now!, one of the SDAs, has been operated during November 2003 - March 2004 as its pilot season. The service includes a public part freely accessible in Internet (http://aurora.fmi.fi) and a private part visible only to the customers of two hotels in the Finnish Lapland through the hotels' internal TV-systems. The nowcasting system is based on the magnetic recordings of two geophysical observatories, Sodankylä (SOD, MLAT ~64 N) and Nurmijärvi (NUR, MLAT ~57 N). The probability of auroral occurrence is continuously characterised with an empirically determined three-level scale. The index is updated once per hour and based on the magnetic field variations recorded at the observatories. During dark hours the near-real time auroral images acquired at SOD are displayed. The hotel service also includes cloudiness predictions for the coming night. During the pilot season the reliability of the three-level magnetic alarm system was weekly evaluated by comparing its prediction with auroral observations by the nearby all-sky camera. Successful hits and failures were scored according to predetermined rules. The highest credit points when it managed to spot auroras in a timely manner and predict their brightness correctly. Maximum penalty points were given when the alarm missed clear bright auroras lasting for more than one hour. In this presentation we analyse the results of the evaluation, present some ideas to further sharpen the procedure, and discuss more generally the correlation between local auroral and magnetic activity.

Automated Detection and Analysis of Interplanetary Shocks Running Real-Time on the Web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorotnikov, V.; Smith, C. W.; Hu, Q.; Szabo, A.; Skoug, R. M.; Cohen, C. M.; Davis, A. J.

2008-05-01

The ACE real-time data stream provides web-based now-casting capabilities for solar wind conditions upstream of Earth. We have built a fully automated code that finds and analyzes interplanetary shocks as they occur and posts their solutions on the Web for possible real-time application to space weather nowcasting. Shock analysis algorithms based on the Rankine-Hugoniot jump conditions exist and are in wide-spread use today for the interactive analysis of interplanetary shocks yielding parameters such as shock speed and propagation direction and shock strength in the form of compression ratios. At a previous meeting we reported on efforts to develop a fully automated code that used ACE Level-2 (science quality) data to prove the applicability and correctness of the code and the associated shock-finder. We have since adapted the code to run ACE RTSW data provided by NOAA. This data lacks the full 3-dimensional velocity vector for the solar wind and contains only a single component wind speed. We show that by assuming the wind velocity to be radial strong shock solutions remain essentially unchanged and the analysis performs as well as it would if 3-D velocity components were available. This is due, at least in part, to the fact that strong shocks tend to have nearly radial shock normals and it is the strong shocks that are most effective in space weather applications. Strong shocks are the only shocks that concern us in this application. The code is now running on the Web and the results are available to all.

Van Allen Probes Science Gateway: Single-Point Access to Long-Term Radiation Belt Measurements and Space Weather Nowcasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romeo, G.; Barnes, R. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.

2017-12-01

The Science Gateway gives single-point access to over 4.5 years of comprehensive wave and particle measurements from the Van Allen Probes NASA twin-spacecraft mission. The Gateway provides a set of visualization and data analysis tools including: HTML5-based interactive visualization of high-level data products from all instrument teams in the form of: line plots, orbital content plots, dynamical energy spectra, L-shell context plots (including two-spacecraft plotting), FFT spectra of wave data, solar wind and geomagnetic indices data, etc.; download custom multi-instrument CDF data files of selected data products; publication quality plots of digital data; combined orbit predicts for mission planning and coordination including: Van Allen Probes, MMS, THEMIS, Arase (ERG), Cluster, GOES, Geotail, FIREBIRD; magnetic footpoint calculator for coordination with LEO and ground-based assets; real-time computation and processing of empirical magnetic field models - computation of magnetic ephemeris, computation of adiabatic invariants. Van Allen Probes is the first spacecraft mission to provide a nowcast of the radiation environment in the heart of the radiation belts, where the radiation levels are the highest and most dangerous for spacecraft operations. For this purpose, all instruments continuously broadcast a subset of their science data in real time. Van Allen Probes partners with four foreign institutions who operate ground stations that receive the broadcast: Korea (KASI), the Czech republic (CAS), Argentina (CONAE), and Brazil (INPE). The SpWx broadcast is then collected at APL and delivered to the community via the Science Gateway.

Detecting High Ice Water Content Cloud Regions Using Airborne and Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kheyrollah Pour, H.; Korolev, A.; Barker, H.; Wolde, M.; Heckman, I.; Duguay, C. R.

2016-12-01

Tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCS) have significant impacts on local and global hydrological cycles and radiation budgets. Moreover, high ice water content (HIWC) found inside MCS clouds at altitudes above 7 km have been identified as hazardous for aviation safety. The environment inside HIWC cloud regions may cause icing of aircraft engines resulting in uncontrolled engine power loss or damage. This phenomenon is known as ice crystal icing (ICI). International aviation regulatory agencies are now attempting to define techniques that enable prediction and detection of potential ICI environments. Such techniques range from on-board HIWC detection to nowcasting of ice crystal weather using satellite data and numerical weather prediction models. The most practical way to monitor continuously for areas of HIWC is by remote sensing with passive radiometers on geostationary satellites. Establishing correlations between HIWC cloud regions and radiances is, however, a challenging problem. This is because regions of HIWC can occur several kilometers below cloud top, while passive satellite radiometers response mainly to the upper kilometers of MCS clouds. The High Altitude Ice Crystals - High Ice Water Content (HAIC-HIWC) field campaigns in Cayenne, French Guiana collected a rich dataset from aboard the Canadian NRC Convair-580 that was equipped with a suite of in-situ microphysical instruments and Dopplerized W- and X-band radars with vertically- and horizontally-directed antenna. This paper aims to describe an algorithm that has been developed to establish relationships between satellite radiances and locations of HIWC regions identified from in-situ measurements of microphysical properties, Doppler velocities, and vertical and horizontal radar reflectivity.

Propagation of radar rainfall uncertainty in urban flood simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liguori, Sara; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel

2013-04-01

This work discusses the results of the implementation of a novel probabilistic system designed to improve ensemble sewer flow predictions for the drainage network of a small urban area in the North of England. The probabilistic system has been developed to model the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall estimates and propagate it through radar-based ensemble sewer flow predictions. The assessment of this system aims at outlining the benefits of addressing the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall estimates in a probabilistic framework, to be potentially implemented in the real-time management of the sewer network in the study area. Radar rainfall estimates are affected by uncertainty due to various factors [1-3] and quality control and correction techniques have been developed in order to improve their accuracy. However, the hydrological use of radar rainfall estimates and forecasts remains challenging. A significant effort has been devoted by the international research community to the assessment of the uncertainty propagation through probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecast systems [4-5], and various approaches have been implemented for the purpose of characterizing the uncertainty in radar rainfall estimates and forecasts [6-11]. A radar-based ensemble stochastic approach, similar to the one implemented for use in the Southern-Alps by the REAL system [6], has been developed for the purpose of this work. An ensemble generator has been calibrated on the basis of the spatial-temporal characteristics of the residual error in radar estimates assessed with reference to rainfall records from around 200 rain gauges available for the year 2007, previously post-processed and corrected by the UK Met Office [12-13]. Each ensemble member is determined by summing a perturbation field to the unperturbed radar rainfall field. The perturbations are generated by imposing the radar error spatial and temporal correlation structure to purely stochastic fields. A hydrodynamic sewer network model implemented in the Infoworks software was used to model the rainfall-runoff process in the urban area. The software calculates the flow through the sewer conduits of the urban model using rainfall as the primary input. The sewer network is covered by 25 radar pixels with a spatial resolution of 1 km2. The majority of the sewer system is combined, carrying both urban rainfall runoff as well as domestic and trade waste water [11]. The urban model was configured to receive the probabilistic radar rainfall fields. The results showed that the radar rainfall ensembles provide additional information about the uncertainty in the radar rainfall measurements that can be propagated in urban flood modelling. The peaks of the measured flow hydrographs are often bounded within the uncertainty area produced by using the radar rainfall ensembles. This is in fact one of the benefits of using radar rainfall ensembles in urban flood modelling. More work needs to be done in improving the urban models, but this is out of the scope of this research. The rainfall uncertainty cannot explain the whole uncertainty shown in the flow simulations, and additional sources of uncertainty will come from the structure of the urban models as well as the large number of parameters required by these models. Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the BADC, the UK Met Office and the UK Environment Agency for providing the various data sets. We also thank Yorkshire Water Services Ltd for providing the urban model. The authors acknowledge the support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) via grant EP/I012222/1. References [1] Browning KA, 1978. Meteorological applications of radar. Reports on Progress in Physics 41 761 Doi: 10.1088/0034-4885/41/5/003 [2] Rico-Ramirez MA, Cluckie ID, Shepherd G, Pallot A, 2007. A high-resolution radar experiment on the island of Jersey. Meteorological Applications 14: 117-129. [3] Villarini G, Krajewski WF, 2010. Review of the different sources of uncertainty in single polarization radar-based estimates of rainfall. Surveys in Geophysics 31: 107-129. [4] Rossa A, Liechti K, Zappa M, Bruen M, Germann U, Haase G, Keil C, Krahe P, 2011. The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydrometeorological forecast systems. Atmospheric Research 100, 150-167. [5] Rossa A, Bruen M, Germann U, Haase G, Keil C, Krahe P, Zappa M, 2010. Overview and Main Results on the interdisciplinary effort in flood forecasting COST 731-Propagation of Uncertainty in Advanced Meteo-Hydrological Forecast Systems. Proceedings of Sixth European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology ERAD 2010. [6] Germann U, Berenguer M, Sempere-Torres D, Zappa M, 2009. REAL - ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 135: 445-456. [8] Bowler NEH, Pierce CE, Seed AW, 2006. STEPS: a probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme which merges and extrapolation nowcast with downscaled NWP. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 132: 2127-2155. [9] Zappa M, Rotach MW, Arpagaus M, Dorninger M, Hegg C, Montani A, Ranzi R, Ament F, Germann U, Grossi G et al., 2008. MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmospheric Science Letters 9, 80-87. [10] Liguori S, Rico-Ramirez MA. Quantitative assessment of short-term rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasts and MM5 forecasts. Hydrological Processes, accepted article. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8415 [11] Liguori S, Rico-Ramirez MA, Schellart ANA, Saul AJ, 2012. Using probabilistic radar rainfall nowcasts and NWP forecasts for flow prediction in urban catchments. Atmospheric Research 103: 80-95. [12] Harrison DL, Driscoll SJ, Kitchen M, 2000. Improving precipitation estimates from weather radar using quality control and correction techniques. Meteorological Applications 7: 135-144. [13] Harrison DL, Scovell RW, Kitchen M, 2009. High-resolution precipitation estimates for hydrological uses. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management 162: 125-135.

Predicting floods with Flickr tags.

PubMed

Tkachenko, Nataliya; Jarvis, Stephen; Procter, Rob

2017-01-01

Increasingly, user generated content (UGC) in social media postings and their associated metadata such as time and location stamps are being used to provide useful operational information during natural hazard events such as hurricanes, storms and floods. The main advantage of these new sources of data are twofold. First, in a purely additive sense, they can provide much denser geographical coverage of the hazard as compared to traditional sensor networks. Second, they provide what physical sensors are not able to do: By documenting personal observations and experiences, they directly record the impact of a hazard on the human environment. For this reason interpretation of the content (e.g., hashtags, images, text, emojis, etc) and metadata (e.g., keywords, tags, geolocation) have been a focus of much research into social media analytics. However, as choices of semantic tags in the current methods are usually reduced to the exact name or type of the event (e.g., hashtags '#Sandy' or '#flooding'), the main limitation of such approaches remains their mere nowcasting capacity. In this study we make use of polysemous tags of images posted during several recent flood events and demonstrate how such volunteered geographic data can be used to provide early warning of an event before its outbreak.

LISN: A distributed observatory to image and study ionospheric irregularities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, R.; Valladares, C. E.

2013-05-01

During nighttime the low-latitude ionosphere commonly develops plasma irregularities and density structures able to disrupt radio wave signals. This interference produces an adverse impact on satellite communication and navigation signals. For example, EM signals originated from satellites can suffer fading as deep as 20 dB even at UHF frequencies. In addition, civil aviation is increasingly dependent upon Global Navigation Satellite Systems and disruption of the navigation capability from ionospheric irregularities poses a clear threat to passengers and crews. To monitor and specify the conditions of the ionosphere over South America, the Low-latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN) was established as a permanent array of scientific instruments that operate continuously and transmit their observables to a central server in a real-time basis. Presently, the LISN observatory includes 3 different types of instruments: (1) 47 GPS receivers, (2) 5 flux-gate magnetometers and (3) 2 Vertical Incidence Pulsed Ionospheric Radar (VIPIR) ionosondes. In addition to providing a nowcast of the disturbed state of the ionosphere over South America, LISN permits detailed studies of the initiation and development of plasma irregularities. By using data assimilation and tomography techniques, LISN provides continuous estimates of several important geophysical parameters that are indispensable to a program aimed at forecasting the plasma electrodynamics and the formation of density structures in the low-latitude ionosphere.

Estimating Reservoir Inflow Using RADAR Forecasted Precipitation and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, J.; Choi, C.

2014-12-01

Rainfall observation and forecasting using remote sensing such as RADAR(Radio Detection and Ranging) and satellite images are widely used to delineate the increased damage by rapid weather changeslike regional storm and flash flood. The flood runoff was calculated by using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, the data driven models and MAPLE(McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation) forecasted precipitation data as the input variables.The result of flood estimation method using neuro-fuzzy technique and RADAR forecasted precipitation data was evaluated by comparing it with the actual data.The Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy method was applied to the Chungju Reservoir basin in Korea. The six rainfall events during the flood seasons in 2010 and 2011 were used for the input data.The reservoir inflow estimation results were comparedaccording to the rainfall data used for training, checking and testing data in the model setup process. The results of the 15 models with the combination of the input variables were compared and analyzed. Using the relatively larger clustering radius and the biggest flood ever happened for training data showed the better flood estimation in this study.The model using the MAPLE forecasted precipitation data showed better result for inflow estimation in the Chungju Reservoir.

Atmospheric Electrical Activity and the Prospects for Improving Short-Term, Weather Forcasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.

2003-01-01

How might lightning measurements be used to improve short-term (0-24 hr) weather forecasting? We examine this question under two different prediction strategies. These include integration of lightning data into short-term forecasts (nowcasts) of convective (including severe) weather hazards and the assimilation of lightning data into cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction models. In each strategy we define specific metrics of forecast improvement and a progress assessment. We also address the conventional observing system deficiencies and potential gap-filling information that can be addressed through the use of the lightning measurement.

EUV Irradiance Inputs to Thermospheric Density Models: Open Issues and Path Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlidas, A.; Bruinsma, S.

2018-01-01

One of the objectives of the NASA Living With a Star Institute on "Nowcasting of Atmospheric Drag for low Earth orbit (LEO) Spacecraft" was to investigate whether and how to increase the accuracy of atmospheric drag models by improving the quality of the solar forcing inputs, namely, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance information. In this focused review, we examine the status of and issues with EUV measurements and proxies, discuss recent promising developments, and suggest a number of ways to improve the reliability, availability, and forecast accuracy of EUV measurements in the next solar cycle.

Integrating Ocean Color Observations and Nowcast/Forecast of Bio-Optical Properties into the Naval Research Laboratory Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-30

Jolliff, J. K., J.C. Kindle, B. Penta, R . Arnone, Z. Lee, C. Rowley (2005), Towards an Ocean Color Data Assimilation System: Analysis of Ocean Color...and Hydrodynamic Processes, Eos Trans., AGU, 87(36), Ocean Sci. Meet. Suppl., Abstract OS53K-04 Jolliff, J.K., J.C. Kindle, B. Penta, R . Arnone, Z...WQ(N 0.10,..--------~ r ------------------, B) BOOM O.!Or---------------------------, C)NWC ··Q·41 Znm ··Q·443nm ··Q·490nm " 0 ·5 !Onm .. a ·SSSnm

Integrating Smart Health in the US Health Care System: Infodemiology Study of Asthma Monitoring in the Google Era.

PubMed

Mavragani, Amaryllis; Sampri, Alexia; Sypsa, Karla; Tsagarakis, Konstantinos P

2018-03-12

With the internet's penetration and use constantly expanding, this vast amount of information can be employed in order to better assess issues in the US health care system. Google Trends, a popular tool in big data analytics, has been widely used in the past to examine interest in various medical and health-related topics and has shown great potential in forecastings, predictions, and nowcastings. As empirical relationships between online queries and human behavior have been shown to exist, a new opportunity to explore the behavior toward asthma-a common respiratory disease-is present. This study aimed at forecasting the online behavior toward asthma and examined the correlations between queries and reported cases in order to explore the possibility of nowcasting asthma prevalence in the United States using online search traffic data. Applying Holt-Winters exponential smoothing to Google Trends time series from 2004 to 2015 for the term "asthma," forecasts for online queries at state and national levels are estimated from 2016 to 2020 and validated against available Google query data from January 2016 to June 2017. Correlations among yearly Google queries and between Google queries and reported asthma cases are examined. Our analysis shows that search queries exhibit seasonality within each year and the relationships between each 2 years' queries are statistically significant (P<.05). Estimated forecasting models for a 5-year period (2016 through 2020) for Google queries are robust and validated against available data from January 2016 to June 2017. Significant correlations were found between (1) online queries and National Health Interview Survey lifetime asthma (r=-.82, P=.001) and current asthma (r=-.77, P=.004) rates from 2004 to 2015 and (2) between online queries and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System lifetime (r=-.78, P=.003) and current asthma (r=-.79, P=.002) rates from 2004 to 2014. The correlations are negative, but lag analysis to identify the period of response cannot be employed until short-interval data on asthma prevalence are made available. Online behavior toward asthma can be accurately predicted, and significant correlations between online queries and reported cases exist. This method of forecasting Google queries can be used by health care officials to nowcast asthma prevalence by city, state, or nationally, subject to future availability of daily, weekly, or monthly data on reported cases. This method could therefore be used for improved monitoring and assessment of the needs surrounding the current population of patients with asthma. ©Amaryllis Mavragani, Alexia Sampri, Karla Sypsa, Konstantinos P Tsagarakis. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 12.03.2018.

OceanNOMADS: Real-time and retrospective access to operational U.S. ocean prediction products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, J. M.; Cross, S. L.; Bub, F.; Ji, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) provides both real-time and archived atmospheric model output from servers at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) respectively (http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/marRutledge-1.pdf). The NOAA National Ocean Data Center (NODC) with NCEP is developing a complementary capability called OceanNOMADS for operational ocean prediction models. An NCEP ftp server currently provides real-time ocean forecast output (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml) with retrospective access through NODC. A joint effort between the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI; a NOAA Cooperative Institute) and the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC; a division of NODC) created the developmental version of the retrospective OceanNOMADS capability (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/ocean_nomads.php) under the NGI Ecosystem Data Assembly Center (EDAC) project (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/). Complementary funding support for the developmental OceanNOMADS from U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) through the Southeastern University Research Association (SURA) Model Testbed (http://testbed.sura.org/) this past year provided NODC the analogue that facilitated the creation of an NCDDC production version of OceanNOMADS (http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/ocean-nomads/). Access tool development and storage of initial archival data sets occur on the NGI/NCDDC developmental servers with transition to NODC/NCCDC production servers as the model archives mature and operational space and distribution capability grow. Navy operational global ocean forecast subsets for U.S waters comprise the initial ocean prediction fields resident on the NCDDC production server. The NGI/NCDDC developmental server currently includes the Naval Research Laboratory Inter-America Seas Nowcast/Forecast System over the Gulf of Mexico from 2004-Mar 2011, the operational Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) regional USEast ocean nowcast/forecast system from early 2009 to present, and the NAVOCEANO operational regional AMSEAS (Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean) ocean nowcast/forecast system from its inception 25 June 2010 to present. AMSEAS provided one of the real-time ocean forecast products accessed by NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration from the NGI/NCDDC developmental OceanNOMADS during the Deep Water Horizon oil spill last year. The developmental server also includes archived, real-time Navy coastal forecast products off coastal Japan in support of U.S./Japanese joint efforts following the 2011 tsunami. Real-time NAVOCEANO output from regional prediction systems off Southern California and around Hawaii, currently available on the NCEP ftp server, are scheduled for archival on the developmental OceanNOMADS by late 2011 along with the next generation Navy/NOAA global ocean prediction output. Accession and archival of additional regions is planned as server capacities increase.

Prediflood: A French research project aiming at developing a road submersion warning system for flash flood prone areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naulin, J. P.; Payrastre, O.; Gaume, E.; Delrieu, G.; Arnaud, P.; Lutoff, C.; Vincendon, B.

2010-09-01

Accurate flood forecasts are crucial for an efficient flood event management. Until now, hydro-meteorological forecasts have been mainly used for early-warnings in France (Meteorological and flood vigilance maps) or over the world (Flash-flood guidances). Forecasts are also often limited to the main streams or to specific watersheds with particular assets like hydropower dams, leaving aside large parts of the territory. Distributed hydro-meteorological forecasting models, able to take advantage of the now available high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall measurements, are promising tools for anticipating and quantifying the short term consequences of storm events all over a region. They would be very useful, especially in regions frequently affected by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal patterns. They would provide the necessary information for flood event management services to identify the areas at risk and to take the appropriate safety and rescue measures: prepositioning of rescue means, stopping of the traffic on exposed roads, determination of safe accesses or evacuation routes. Some preliminary tests conducted by the LCPC within the European project FLOODsite have shown encouraging results of a distributed hydro-meteorological forecasting model. It seems possible, despite the limits of the available rainfall measurements and the shortcomings of the rainfall-runoff models, to deliver distributed forecasts of possible local flood consequences - road submersion risk rating at about 5000 different locations over the Gard department in the tested case - with an acceptable level of accuracy. The PreDiFlood project (http://heberge.lcpc.fr/prediflood/) aims at consolidating and extending these first results with the objective to conduct pre-operational tests with possible end-users at the end of the project. Such a tool will not replace, but complement existing flood forecasting approaches in time and space domains that have not been covered until now (short term forecasting at a regional scale). It will produce a completely new type of forecasts and the usefulness of such data for the emergency services for their real-time decision making will be assessed within the project. Beyond the direct operational objectives, this project aims at demonstrating, on a specific application (the now-casting of road submersions), the possibilities and also the limits and hence the needed improvements of tools that are still underused: radar quantitative precipitation estimates but also precipitation now-castings, distributed rainfall-runoff models, and the recent knowledge acquired on flash-floods consequence evaluation as well as event management.

Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Observations Needed to Improve the Operational NAIRAS Model Aircraft Radiation Exposure Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, C. J.; Kress, B. T.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Tobiska, W.; Xu, X.

2011-12-01

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a prototype operational model for predicting commercial aircraft radiation exposure from galactic and solar cosmic rays. NAIRAS predictions are currently streaming live from the project's public website, and the exposure rate nowcast is also available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, IPad, and Android. Cosmic rays are the primary source of human exposure to high linear energy transfer radiation at aircraft altitudes, which increases the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects. Thus, the NAIRAS model addresses an important national need with broad societal, public health and economic benefits. The processes responsible for the variability in the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particle spectrum, and the dynamical response of the magnetosphere to these space environment inputs, strongly influence the composition and energy distribution of the atmospheric ionizing radiation field. During the development of the NAIRAS model, new science questions were identified that must be addressed in order to obtain a more reliable and robust operational model of atmospheric radiation exposure. Addressing these science questions require improvements in both space weather modeling and observations. The focus of this talk is to present these science questions, the proposed methodologies for addressing these science questions, and the anticipated improvements to the operational predictions of atmospheric radiation exposure. The overarching goal of this work is to provide a decision support tool for the aviation industry that will enable an optimal balance to be achieved between minimizing health risks to passengers and aircrew while simultaneously minimizing costs to the airline companies.

Short-term sea ice forecasting: An assessment of ice concentration and ice drift forecasts using the U.S. Navy's Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hebert, David A.; Allard, Richard A.; Metzger, E. Joseph; Posey, Pamela G.; Preller, Ruth H.; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Phelps, Michael W.; Smedstad, Ole Martin

2015-12-01

In this study the forecast skill of the U.S. Navy operational Arctic sea ice forecast system, the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS), is presented for the period February 2014 to June 2015. ACNFS is designed to provide short term, 1-7 day forecasts of Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions. Many quantities are forecast by ACNFS; the most commonly used include ice concentration, ice thickness, ice velocity, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface velocities. Ice concentration forecast skill is compared to a persistent ice state and historical sea ice climatology. Skill scores are focused on areas where ice concentration changes by ±5% or more, and are therefore limited to primarily the marginal ice zone. We demonstrate that ACNFS forecasts are skilful compared to assuming a persistent ice state, especially beyond 24 h. ACNFS is also shown to be particularly skilful compared to a climatologic state for forecasts up to 102 h. Modeled ice drift velocity is compared to observed buoy data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme. A seasonal bias is shown where ACNFS is slower than IABP velocity in the summer months and faster in the winter months. In February 2015, ACNFS began to assimilate a blended ice concentration derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). Preliminary results show that assimilating AMSR2 blended with IMS improves the short-term forecast skill and ice edge location compared to the independently derived National Ice Center Ice Edge product.

ASI/CGS products and services in support of GNSS-meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacione, Rosa; Pace, Brigida; Bianco, Giuseppe

2013-04-01

For more than a decade, ASI/CGS has supported ground-based GNSS meteorology in Europe participating in various projects such as MAGIC, COST-716, TOUGH, E-GVAP (phase I and II) and providing Zenith Tropospheric path Delays (ZTD) derived from a European network of GNSS stations covering mainly the central Mediterranean area. Working in close cooperation with the meteorological community, GNSS data are analyzed in order to provide ZTD with different latencies ranging from post-processing, useful for climate studies, to near-real time, for hourly assimilation into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. However advancements in NWP models (such as the Met Office UKV 1.5km model) with rapid update cycles require observations with improved timeliness and with greater spatial and temporal resolution than is currently available. To fulfil this requirement a sub-hourly PPP processing has been set-up, and is under evaluation, thanks to the availability of the IGS RT orbit and clock corrections. Moreover ZTD estimates are the input data for developing new and enhanced products: ZTD residuals fields and Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) maps. The former will be helpful in augmenting empirical tropospheric models for positioning applications. The latter are useful for nowcasting and severe weather monitoring since they let to follow IWV time evolution. We present an overview of the developed products and services; the new directions in support of NWP applications and the nowcasting and forecasting of severe weather events that emerge within E-GVAP phase III and the EU COST Action "Advanced Global Navigation Satellite Systems tropospheric products for monitoring Severe Weather Events and Climate" (GNSS4SWEC). Acknowledgements. This work has been carried out under ASI contract I-014-10-0.

Meteorological radar services: a brief discussion and a solution in practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolaides, K. A.

2014-08-01

The Department of Meteorology is the organization designated by the Civil Aviation Department and by the National Supervisory Authority of the Republic of Cyprus, as an air navigation service provider, based on the regulations of the Single European Sky. Department of Meteorology holds and maintains also an ISO: 9001/2008, Quality System, for the provision of meteorological and climatological services to aeronautic and maritime community, but also to the general public. In order to fulfill its obligations the Department of Meteorology customs the rather dense meteorological stations network, with long historical data series, installed and maintained by the Department, in parallel with modelling and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), along with training and gaining of expertise. Among the available instruments in the community of meteorologists is the meteorological radar, a basic tool for the needs of very short/short range forecasting (nowcasting). The Department of Meteorology installed in the mid 90's a C-band radar over «Throni» location and expanded its horizons in nowcasting, aviation safety and warnings issuance. The radar has undergone several upgrades but today technology has over passed its rather old technology. At the present the Department of Meteorology is in the process of buying Meteorological Radar Services as a result of a public procurement procedure. Two networked X-band meteorological radar will be installed (the project now is in the phase of infrastructure establishment while the hardware is in the process of assemble), and maintained from Space Hellas (the contractor) for a 13 years' time period. The present article must be faced as a review article of the efforts of the Department of Meteorology to support its weather forecasters with data from meteorological radar.

Real-Time Aircraft Cosmic Ray Radiation Exposure Predictions from the NAIRAS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, C. J.; Tobiska, W.; Kress, B. T.; Xu, X.

2012-12-01

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a prototype operational model for predicting commercial aircraft radiation exposure from galactic and solar cosmic rays. NAIRAS predictions are currently streaming live from the project's public website, and the exposure rate nowcast is also available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, IPad, and Android. Cosmic rays are the primary source of human exposure to high linear energy transfer radiation at aircraft altitudes, which increases the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects. Thus, the NAIRAS model addresses an important national need with broad societal, public health and economic benefits. There is also interest in extending NAIRAS to the LEO environment to address radiation hazard issues for the emerging commercial spaceflight industry. The processes responsible for the variability in the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particle spectrum, and the dynamical response of the magnetosphere to these space environment inputs, strongly influence the composition and energy distribution of the atmospheric ionizing radiation field. Real-time observations are required at a variety of locations within the geospace environment. The NAIRAS model is driven by real-time input data from ground-, atmospheric-, and space-based platforms. During the development of the NAIRAS model, new science questions and observational data gaps were identified that must be addressed in order to obtain a more reliable and robust operational model of atmospheric radiation exposure. The focus of this talk is to present the current capabilities of the NAIRAS model, discuss future developments in aviation radiation modeling and instrumentation, and propose strategies and methodologies of bridging known gaps in current modeling and observational capabilities.

Transforming community access to space science models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacNeice, Peter; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Maddox, Marlo; Rastaetter, Lutz; Berrios, David; Pulkkinen, Antti

2012-04-01

Researching and forecasting the ever changing space environment (often referred to as space weather) and its influence on humans and their activities are model-intensive disciplines. This is true because the physical processes involved are complex, but, in contrast to terrestrial weather, the supporting observations are typically sparse. Models play a vital role in establishing a physically meaningful context for interpreting limited observations, testing theory, and producing both nowcasts and forecasts. For example, with accurate forecasting of hazardous space weather conditions, spacecraft operators can place sensitive systems in safe modes, and power utilities can protect critical network components from damage caused by large currents induced in transmission lines by geomagnetic storms.

Transforming Community Access to Space Science Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacNeice, Peter; Heese, Michael; Kunetsova, Maria; Maddox, Marlo; Rastaetter, Lutz; Berrios, David; Pulkkinen, Antti

2012-01-01

Researching and forecasting the ever changing space environment (often referred to as space weather) and its influence on humans and their activities are model-intensive disciplines. This is true because the physical processes involved are complex, but, in contrast to terrestrial weather, the supporting observations are typically sparse. Models play a vital role in establishing a physically meaningful context for interpreting limited observations, testing theory, and producing both nowcasts and forecasts. For example, with accurate forecasting of hazardous space weather conditions, spacecraft operators can place sensitive systems in safe modes, and power utilities can protect critical network components from damage caused by large currents induced in transmission lines by geomagnetic storms.

The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zank, G. P.; Spann, James F.

2014-01-01

The goal of this project is to serve the needs of space system designers and operators by developing an interplanetary radiation environment model within 10 AU:Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) toolset: (1) The RISCS toolset will provide specific reference environments for space system designers and nowcasting and forecasting capabilities for space system operators; (2) We envision the RISCS toolset providing the spatial and temporal radiation environment external to the Earth's (and other planets') magnetosphere, as well as possessing the modularity to integrate separate applications (apps) that can map to specific magnetosphere locations and/or perform the subsequent radiation transport and dosimetry for a specific target.

The scientific challenges to forecasting and nowcasting the solar origins of space weather (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, C. J.; Title, A. M.

2013-12-01

With the full-sphere continuous coverage of the Sun achieved by combining SDO and STEREO imagery comes the realization that solar activity is a manifestation of local processes that respond to long-range if not global influences. Numerical experiments provide insights into these couplings, as well as into the intricacies of destabilizations of field emerging into pre-existing configurations and evolving within the context of their dynamic surroundings. With these capabilities grows an understanding of the difficulties in forecasting of the solar origins of space weather: we need assimilative global non-potential field models, but our observational resources are too limited to meet that need.

Monitoring Snow Using Geostationary Satellite Retrievals During the SAAWSO Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, Robert M.; Gultepe, Ismail; Kuligowski, Robert J.; Heidinger, Andrew K.

2016-09-01

The SAAWSO (Satellite Applications for Arctic Weather and SAR (Search And Rescue) Operations) field programs were conducted by Environment Canada near St. Johns, NL and Goose Bay, NL in the winters of 2012-13 and 2013-14, respectively. The goals of these programs were to validate satellite-based nowcasting products, including snow amount, wind intensity, and cloud physical parameters (e.g., cloud cover), over northern latitudes with potential applications to Search And Rescue (SAR) operations. Ground-based in situ sensors and remote sensing platforms were used to measure microphysical properties of precipitation, clouds and fog, radiation, temperature, moisture and wind profiles. Multi-spectral infrared observations obtained from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-13 provided estimates of cloud top temperature and height, phase (water, ice), hydrometer size, extinction, optical depth, and horizontal wind patterns at 15 min intervals. In this work, a technique developed for identifying clouds capable of producing high snowfall rates and incorporating wind information from the satellite observations is described. The cloud top physical properties retrieved from operational satellite observations are validated using measurements obtained from the ground-based in situ and remote sensing platforms collected during two precipitation events: a blizzard heavy snow storm case and a moderate snow event. The retrieved snow precipitation rates are found to be comparable to those of ground-based platform measurements in the heavy snow event.

Predicting floods with Flickr tags

PubMed Central

Jarvis, Stephen; Procter, Rob

2017-01-01

Increasingly, user generated content (UGC) in social media postings and their associated metadata such as time and location stamps are being used to provide useful operational information during natural hazard events such as hurricanes, storms and floods. The main advantage of these new sources of data are twofold. First, in a purely additive sense, they can provide much denser geographical coverage of the hazard as compared to traditional sensor networks. Second, they provide what physical sensors are not able to do: By documenting personal observations and experiences, they directly record the impact of a hazard on the human environment. For this reason interpretation of the content (e.g., hashtags, images, text, emojis, etc) and metadata (e.g., keywords, tags, geolocation) have been a focus of much research into social media analytics. However, as choices of semantic tags in the current methods are usually reduced to the exact name or type of the event (e.g., hashtags ‘#Sandy’ or ‘#flooding’), the main limitation of such approaches remains their mere nowcasting capacity. In this study we make use of polysemous tags of images posted during several recent flood events and demonstrate how such volunteered geographic data can be used to provide early warning of an event before its outbreak. PMID:28235035

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shriver, J. F.; Hurlburt, H. E.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Rhodes, R. C.

2007-03-01

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25-75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to ( a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and ( b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean - topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.

Analysis and numerical simulation of an aircraft icing episode near Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolgiani, Pedro; Fernández-González, Sergio; Martin, María Luisa; Valero, Francisco; Merino, Andrés; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Sánchez, José Luis

2018-02-01

Aircraft icing is one of the most dangerous weather phenomena in aviation security. Therefore, avoiding areas with high probability of icing episodes along arrival and departure routes to airports is strongly recommended. Although such icing is common, forecasting and observation are far from perfect. This paper presents an analysis of an aircraft icing and turbulence event including a commercial flight near the Guadarrama Mountains, during the aircraft approach to the airport. No reference to icing or turbulence was made in the pre-flight meteorological information provided to the pilot, highlighting the need for additional tools to predict such risks. For this reason, the icing episode is simulated by means of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and analyzed using images from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite, with the aim of providing tools for the detection of icing and turbulence in the airport vicinity. The WRF simulation shows alternating updrafts and downdrafts (> 2 m s- 1) on the lee side of the mountain barrier. This is consonant with moderate to strong turbulence experienced by the aircraft on its approach path to the airport and suggests clear air turbulence above the mountain wave cloud top. At the aircraft icing altitude, supercooled liquid water associated with orographic clouds and mountain waves is simulated. Daytime and nighttime MSG images corroborated the simulated mountain waves and associated supercooled liquid water. The results encourage the use of mesoscale models and MSG nowcasting information to minimize aviation risks associated with such meteorological phenomena.

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mecikalski, John; Jewett, Chris; Carey, Larry; Zavodsky, Brad; Stano, Geoffrey

2015-01-01

Lightning one of the most dangerous weather-related phenomena, especially as many jobs and activities occur outdoors, presenting risk from a lightning strike. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning represents a considerable safety threat to people at airfields, marinas, and outdoor facilities-from airfield personnel, to people attending outdoor stadium events, on beaches and golf courses, to mariners, as well as emergency personnel. Holle et al. (2005) show that 90% of lightning deaths occurred outdoors, while 10% occurred indoors despite the perception of safety when inside buildings. Curran et al. (2000) found that nearly half of fatalities due to weather were related to convective weather in the 1992-1994 timeframe, with lightning causing a large component of the fatalities, in addition to tornadoes and flash flooding. Related to the aviation industry, CG lightning represents a considerable hazard to baggage-handlers, aircraft refuelers, food caterers, and emergency personnel, who all become exposed to the risk of being struck within short time periods while convective storm clouds develop. Airport safety protocols require that ramp operations be modified or discontinued when lightning is in the vicinity (typically 16 km), which becomes very costly and disruptive to flight operations. Therefore, much focus has been paid to nowcasting the first-time initiation and extent of lightning, both of CG and of any lightning (e.g, in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud). For this project three lightning nowcasting methodologies will be combined: (1) a GOESbased 0-1 hour lightning initiation (LI) product (Harris et al. 2010; Iskenderian et al. 2012), (2) a High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) lightning probability and forecasted lightning flash density product, such that a quantitative amount of lightning (QL) can be assigned to a location of expected LI, and (3) an algorithm that relates Pseudo-GLM data (Stano et al. 2012, 2014) to the so-called "lightning jump" (LJ) methodology (Shultz et al. 2011) to monitor lightning trends and to anticipate/forecast severe weather (hail > or =2.5 cm, winds > or =25 m/s, tornadoes). The result will be a time-continuous algorithm that uses GOES satellite, radar fields, and HRRR model fields to nowcast first-flash LI and QL, and subsequently monitors lightning trends on a perstorm basis within the LJ algorithm for possible severe weather occurrence out to > or =3 hours. The LI-QL-LJ product will also help prepare the operational forecast community for Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data expected in late 2015, as these data are monitored for ongoing convective storms. The LI-QL-LJ product will first predict where new lightning is highly probable using GOES imagery of developing cumulus clouds, followed by n analysis of NWS (dual-polarization) radar indicators (reflectivity at the -10 C altitude) of lightning occurrence, to increase confidence that LI is immanent. Once lightning is observed, time-continuous lightning mapping array and Pseudo-GLM observations will be analyzed to assess trends and the severe weather threat as identified by trends in lightning (i.e. LJs). Additionally, 5- and 15-min GOES imagery will then be evaluated on a per-storm basis for overshooting and other cloud-top features known to be associated with severe storms. For the processing framework, the GOES-R 0-1 hour convective initiation algorithm's output will be developed within the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) tracking tool, and merged with radar and lightning (LMA/Psuedo-GLM) datasets for active storms. The initial focus of system development will be over North Alabama for select lightning-active days in summer 2014, yet will be formed in an expandable manner. The lightning alert tool will also be developed in concert with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to meet their needs for real-time, accurate first-flash LI and timing, as well as anticipated lightning trends, amounts, continuation and cessation, so to provide key situational awareness and decision support information. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center will provide important logistical and collaborative support and training, involving interactions with the NWS and broader user community.

Developing Lightning Prediction Tools for the CCAFS Dual-Polarimetric Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersen, W. A.; Carey, L. D.; Deierling, W.; Johnson, E.; Bateman, M.

2009-01-01

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama Huntsville are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) to develop improved lightning prediction capabilities for the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar being acquired for use by 45WS and launch weather forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). In particular, these algorithms will focus on lightning onset, cessation and combined lightning-radar applications for convective winds assessment. Research using radar reflectivity (Z) data for prediction of lightning onset has been extensively discussed in the literature and subsequently applied by launch weather forecasters as it pertains to lightning nowcasting. Currently the forecasters apply a relatively straight forward but effective temperature-Z threshold algorithm for assessing the likelihood of lightning onset in a given storm. In addition, a layered VIL above the freezing level product is used as automated guidance for the onset of lightning. Only limited research and field work has been conducted on lightning cessation using Z and vertically-integrated Z for determining cessation. Though not used operationally vertically-integrated Z (basis for VIL) has recently shown promise as a tool for use in nowcasting lightning cessation. The work discussed herein leverages and expands upon these and similar reflectivity-threshold approaches via the application/addition of over two decades of polarimetric radar research focused on distinct multi-parameter radar signatures of ice/mixed-phase initiation and ice-crystal orientation in highly electrified convective clouds. Specifically, our approach is based on numerous previous studies that have observed repeatable patterns in the behavior of the vertical hydrometeor column as it relates to the temporal evolution of differential reflectivity and depolarization (manifested in either LDR or p(sub hv)), development of in-situ mixed and ice phase microphysics, electric fields, and ensuing lightning in the sub-tropical/tropical convection typical of the southeastern U.S., Maritime Continent, and southwestern Amazon. The polarimetric signatures detected in this setting provide a basis for automated 3-D detection of hydrometeor types in fuzzy logic hydrometeor identification algorithms (HID). Our working hypothesis is that improvement in lightning onset warning lead time and specificity for a given storm, relative to application of a Z-threshold algorithm, should arise as a consequence of the ability of dual-polarimetric radar to unambiguously detect and identify (through HID algorithms) the updraft elevation of rain-water cores above the freezing level and subsequent onset of drop freezing, riming, and robust mixed phase processes leading to significant charge separation and lightning. This type of algorithm, though dependent on the quality of the polarimetric data should be less susceptible to variable Z-calibration that can impact a given Z-threshold approach. To facilitate development of the algorithm while the 45WS dual-pol radar is in its current test stages and to evaluate the impact of polarimetric data quality (e.g., modified scan parameters and sampling) on the ensuing algorithms, we are using the ARMOR C-band dual-pol radar in Huntsville combined with N. Alabama LMA data and ARMOR HID algorithms [NCAR algorithm modified for application at C-band] in a testbed fashion. For lightning cessation we are revisiting the application of differential propagation phase variables for the monitoring of ice crystal alignment driven by in-cloud electric fields combined with metrics of ice water path (i.e., vertically integrated reflectivity). Importantly it should be noted that this approach is still very much a research topic and as such, we will explore operational applications that involve radar frequencies other than C-Band by using the UAH MAX X-band dual-pol radar in slow staring modes.

Lightning jump as a nowcast predictor: Application to severe weather events in Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnell, C.; Rigo, T.; Pineda, N.

2017-01-01

Several studies reported sudden increases in the total lightning flash rate (intra-cloud+cloud-to-ground) preceding the occurrence of severe weather (large hail, wind gusts associated to thunderstorms and/or tornadoes). Named ;Lightning Jump;, this pattern has demonstrated to be of operational applicability in the forecasting of severe weather phenomena. The present study introduces the application of a lightning jump algorithm, with an identification of cells based solely on total lightning data, revealing that there is no need of radar data to trigger severe weather warnings. The algorithm was validated by means of a dataset severe weather events occurred in Catalonia in the period 2009-2014. Results obtained revealed very promising.

Real-Time Eddy-Resolving Ocean Prediction in the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurlburt, H. E.; Smedstad, O. M.; Shriver, J. F.; Townsend, T. L.; Murphy, S. J.

2001-12-01

A {1/16}o eddy-resolving, nearly global ocean prediction system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Stennis Space Center, MS. It has been run in real-time by the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO), Stennis Space Center, MS since 18 Oct 2000 with daily updates for the nowcast and 30-day forecasts performed every Wednesday. The model has ~8 km resolution in the Caribbean region and assimilates real-time altimeter sea surface height (SSH) data from ERS-2, GFO and TOPEX/POSEIDON plus multi-channel sea surface temperature (MCSST) from satellite IR. Real-time and archived results from the system can be seen at web site: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global\

DIAS Project: The establishment of a European digital upper atmosphere server

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belehaki, A.; Cander, Lj.; Zolesi, B.; Bremer, J.; Juren, C.; Stanislawska, I.; Dialetis, D.; Hatzopoulos, M.

2005-08-01

The main objective of DIAS (European Digital Upper Atmosphere Server) project is to develop a pan-European digital data collection on the state of the upper atmosphere, based on real-time information and historical data collections provided by most operating ionospheric stations in Europe. A DIAS system will distribute information required by various groups of users for the specification of upper atmospheric conditions over Europe suitable for nowcasting and forecasting purposes. The successful operation of the DIAS system will lead to the development of new European added-value products and services, to the effective use of observational data in operational applications and consequently to the expansion of the relevant European market.

A High Resolution Study of Black Sea Circulation and Hypothetical Oil Spills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietrich, D. E.; Bowman, M. J.; Korotenko, K. A.

2008-12-01

A 1/24 deg resolution adaptation of the DieCAST ocean model simulates a realistically intense Rim Current and ubiquitous mesoscale coastal anticyclonic eddies that result from anticyclonic vorticity generation by laterally differential bottom drag forces that are amplified near Black Sea coastal headlands. Climatological and synoptic surface forcings are compared. The effects of vertical momentum transfer by known (by Synop region fishermen, as reported by Ballard National Geographic article) big amplitude internal waves are parameterized by big vertical viscosity. Sensitivity to vertical viscosity is shown. Results of simulated hypothetical oil spills are shown. A simple method to nowcast/forecast the Black Sea currents is described and early results are shown.

Transitioning a Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System to Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Green, D. S.; Eco Forecasters

2011-12-01

Ecological prediction of the impacts of physical, chemical, biological, and human-induced change on ecosystems and their components, encompass a wide range of space and time scales, and subject matter. They vary from predicting the occurrence and/or transport of certain species, such harmful algal blooms, or biogeochemical constituents, such as dissolved oxygen concentrations, to large-scale ecosystem responses and higher trophic levels. The timescales of ecological prediction, including guidance and forecasts, range from nowcasts and short-term forecasts (days), to intraseasonal and interannual outlooks (weeks to months), to decadal and century projections in climate change scenarios. The spatial scales range from small coastal inlets to basin and global scale biogeochemical and ecological forecasts. The types of models that have been used include conceptual, empirical, mechanistic, and hybrid approaches. This presentation will identify the challenges and progress toward transitioning experimental model-based ecological prediction into operational guidance and forecasting. Recent efforts are targeting integration of regional ocean, hydrodynamic and hydrological models and leveraging weather and water service infrastructure to enable the prototyping of an operational ecological forecast capability for the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries. A path finder demonstration predicts the probability of encountering sea nettles (Chrysaora quinquecirrha), a stinging jellyfish. These jellyfish can negatively impact safety and economic activities in the bay and an impact-based forecast that predicts where and when this biotic nuisance occurs may help management effects. The issuance of bay-wide nowcasts and three-day forecasts of sea nettle probability are generated daily by forcing an empirical habitat model (that predicts the probability of sea nettles) with real-time and 3-day forecasts of sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). In the first demonstration phase, the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) fields are generated by the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS2), a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model developed and operated by NOAA's National Ocean Service and run operationally at the National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Importantly, this system is readily modified to predict the probability of other important target organisms, such as harmful algal blooms, biogeochemical constituents, such as dissolved oxygen concentration, and water-borne pathogens. Extending this initial effort includes advancement of a regional coastal ocean modeling testbed and proving ground. Such formal collaboration is intended to accelerate transition to operations and increase confidence and use of forecast guidance. The outcome will be improved decision making by emergency and resource managers, scientific researchers and the general public. The presentation will describe partnership plans for this testbed as well as the potential implications for the services and research community.

Space Weather Nowcasting of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Wilson, John W.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Solomon, Stan C.; Wiltberger, J.; Kunches, Joseph; Kress, Brian T.; Murray, John J.

2007-01-01

There is a growing concern for the health and safety of commercial aircrew and passengers due to their exposure to ionizing radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET), particularly at high latitudes. The International Commission of Radiobiological Protection (ICRP), the EPA, and the FAA consider the crews of commercial aircraft as radiation workers. During solar energetic particle (SEP) events, radiation exposure can exceed annual limits, and the number of serious health effects is expected to be quite high if precautions are not taken. There is a need for a capability to monitor the real-time, global background radiations levels, from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), at commercial airline altitudes and to provide analytical input for airline operations decisions for altering flight paths and altitudes for the mitigation and reduction of radiation exposure levels during a SEP event. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is new initiative to provide a global, real-time radiation dosimetry package for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. The NAIRAS model brings to bear the best available suite of Sun-Earth observations and models for simulating the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. Observations are utilized from ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the METO analysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the GCR and SEP energy flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. Empirical models of the near-Earth radiation environment (GCR/SEP energy flux distributions and geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) are benchmarked against the physics-based CMIT (Coupled Magnetosphere- Ionosphere-Thermosphere) and SEP-trajectory models.

On the Impact of Multi-GNSS Observations on Real-Time Precise Point Positioning Zenith Total Delay Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Wenwu; Teferle, Norman; Kaźmierski, Kamil; Laurichesse, Denis; Yuan, Yunbin

2017-04-01

Observations from multiple Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) can improve the performance of real-time (RT) GNSS meteorology, in particular of the Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) estimates. RT ZTD estimates in combination with derived precipitable water vapour estimates can be used for weather now-casting and the tracking of severe weather events. While a number of published literature has already highlighted this positive development, in this study we describe an operational RT system for extracting ZTD using a modified version of the PPP-wizard (with PPP denoting Precise Point Positioning). Multi-GNSS, including GPS, GLONASS and Galileo, observation streams are processed using a RT PPP strategy based on RT satellite orbit and clock products from the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). A continuous experiment for 30 days was conducted, in which the RT observation streams of 20 globally distributed stations were processed. The initialization time and accuracy of the RT troposphere products using single and/or multi-system observations were evaluated. The effect of RT PPP ambiguity resolution was also evaluated. The results revealed that the RT troposphere products based on single system observations can fulfill the requirements of the meteorological application in now-casting systems. We noted that the GPS-only solution is better than the GLONASS-only solution in both initialization and accuracy. While the ZTD performance can be improved by applying RT PPP ambiguity resolution, the inclusion of observations from multiple GNSS has a more profound effect. Specifically, we saw that the ambiguity resolution is more effective in improving the accuracy, whereas the initialization process can be better accelerated by multi-GNSS observations. Combining all systems, RT troposphere products with an average accuracy of about 8 mm in ZTD were achieved after an initialization process of approximately 9 minutes, which supports the application of multi-GNSS observations and ambiguity resolution for RT meteorological applications.

FLYSAFE, nowcasting of in flight icing supporting aircrew decision making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouin, A.; Le Bot, C.

2009-09-01

FLYSAFE is an Integrated Project of the 6th framework of the European Commission with the aim to improve flight safety through the development of a Next Generation Integrated Surveillance System (NGISS). The NGISS provides information to the flight crew on the three major external hazards for aviation: weather, air traffic and terrain. The NGISS has the capability of displaying data about all three hazards on a single display screen, facilitating rapid pilot appreciation of the situation by the flight crew. Weather Information Management Systems (WIMS) were developed to provide the NGISS and the flight crew with weather related information on in-flight icing, thunderstorms, wake-vortex and clear-air turbulence. These products are generated on the ground from observations and model forecasts. WIMS supply relevant information on three different scales: global, regional and local (over airport Terminal Manoeuvring Area). Within the flysafe program, around 120 hours of flight trials were performed during February 2008 and August 2008. Two aircraft were involved each with separate objectives : - to assess FLYSAFE's innovative solutions for the data-link, on-board data fusion, data-display, and data-updates during flight; - to evaluate the new weather information management systems (in flight icing and thunderstorms) using in-situ measurements recorded on board the test aircraft. In this presentation we will focus on the in-flight icing nowcasting system developed at Météo France in the framework of FLYSAFE: the local ICE WIMS. The local ICE WIMS is based on data fusion. The most relevant information for icing detection is extracted from the numerical weather prediction model, the infra-red and visible satellite imagery and the ground weather radar reflectivities. After a presentation of the local ICE WIMS, we detail the evaluation of the local ICE WIMS performed using the winter and summer flight trial data.

Nowcasting of deep convective clouds and heavy precipitation: Comparison study between NWP model simulation and extrapolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sokol, Zbyněk; Zacharov, Petr

2017-02-01

An evaluation of convective cloud forecasts performed with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO and extrapolation of cloud fields is presented using observed data derived from the geostationary satellite Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). The present study focuses on the nowcasting range (1-5 h) for five severe convective storms in their developing stage that occurred during the warm season in the years 2012-2013. Radar reflectivity and extrapolated radar reflectivity data were assimilated for at least 6 h depending on the time of occurrence of convection. Synthetic satellite imageries were calculated using radiative transfer model RTTOV v10.2, which was implemented into the COSMO model. NWP model simulations of IR10.8 μm and WV06.2 μm brightness temperatures (BTs) with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km were interpolated into the satellite projection and objectively verified against observations using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CORR) and Fractions Skill Score (FSS) values. Naturally, the extrapolation of cloud fields yielded an approximately 25% lower RMSE, 20% higher CORR and 15% higher FSS at the beginning of the second forecasted hour compared to the NWP model forecasts. On the other hand, comparable scores were observed for the third hour, whereas the NWP forecasts outperformed the extrapolation by 10% for RMSE, 15% for CORR and up to 15% for FSS during the fourth forecasted hour and 15% for RMSE, 27% for CORR and up to 15% for FSS during the fifth forecasted hour. The analysis was completed by a verification of the precipitation forecasts yielding approximately 8% higher RMSE, 15% higher CORR and up to 45% higher FSS when the NWP model simulation is used compared to the extrapolation for the first hour. Both the methods yielded unsatisfactory level of precipitation forecast accuracy from the fourth forecasted hour onward.

Applications of NASA TROPICS Data for Tropical Cyclone Analysis, Nowcasting, and Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavodsky, B.; Dunion, J. P.; Blackwell, W. J.; Braun, S. A.; Green, D. S.; Velden, C.; Adler, R. F.; Cossuth, J.; Murray, J. J.; Brennan, M. J.

2017-12-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission is a constellation of state-of-the-science observing platforms that will measure temperature and humidity soundings and precipitation with spatial resolution comparable to current operational passive microwave sounders but with unprecedented temporal resolution. TROPICS is a cost-capped ($30M) Venture-class mission funded by the NASA Earth Science Division. The mission is comprised of a constellation of 3 unit (3U) SmallSats, each hosting a 12-channel passive microwave spectrometer based on the Micro-sized Microwave Atmospheric Satellite 2 (MicroMAS-2) developed at MIT LL. TROPICS will provide imagery near 91 and 205 GHz, temperature sounding near 118 GHz, and moisture sounding near 183 GHz. Spatial resolution at nadir will be around 27 km for temperature and 17 km for moisture and precipitation. The swath width is approximately 2000 km. TROPICS enables temporal resolution similar to geostationary orbit but at a much lower cost, demonstrating a technology that could impact the design of future Earth-observing missions. The TROPICS satellites for the mission are slated for delivery to NASA in 2019 with potential launch opportunities in 2020. The primary mission objective of TROPICS is to relate temperature, humidity, and precipitation structure to the evolution of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. This abstract summarizes the outcomes of the 1st TROPICS Applications Workshop, held from May 8-10, 2017 at the University of Miami. At this meeting, a series of presentations and breakout discussions in the topical areas of Tropical Cyclone Dynamics, Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Nowcasting, Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation, and Terrestrial Impacts were convened to identify applications of the mission data and to begin to establish a community of end-users who will be able to benefit from TROPICS. Key takeaways, partnerships, and applications will be highlighted.

Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William

2007-01-01

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous, full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 11 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies begun in January 2006 will be completed in March 2007, with implementation expected to begin in September 2007. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, airborne science missions (e.g., African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis, AMMA), and regional test beds (e.g, Lightning Mapping Arrays) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data now being provided to selected forecast offices will lead to improved understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications. Proxy data combined with MODIS and Meteosat Second Generation SEVERI observations will also lead to new applications (e.g., multi-sensor precipitation algorithms blending the GLM with the Advanced Baseline Imager, convective cloud initiation and identification, early warnings of lightning threat, storm tracking, and data assimilation).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joe, Paul; Scott, Bill; Doyle, Chris

Abstract—An innovative monitoring network was implemented to support the operational and science programs for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics. It consisted of in situ weather stations on custom-designed platforms. The sensors included an HMP45C for temperature, humidity and pressure, a tipping bucket rain gauge, an acoustic snow depth sensor, a Pluvio 1 precipitation gauge and an anemometer placed at gauge height and at 10 m height. Modifications to commercial automated precipitation gauges were necessary for the heavy snowfall conditions. Advanced or emerging technologies were deployed to support scientific and nowcasting studies into precipitation intensity, typing, visibility and wind. The sensorsmore » included an FD12P visibility and precipitation sensor, a precipitation occurrence sensing system (POSS) present weather sensor, a Hotplate precipitation sensor and a Parsivel disdrometer. Data were collected at 1 min sampling intervals. A Doppler weather radar was deployed in a valley location and provided critical detailed low-level data. An X-band dual-polarized radar was deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to monitor Vancouver and Cypress Mountain. Three remote sensing stations for vertical profiling were established. At the base of Whistler Mountain, a micro-rain radar, a 22-channel radiometer, a ceilometer, a Parsivel and a POSS were installed. At the base of Cypress Mountain, a micro-rain radar, a ceilometer, a low cost rain sensor (LCR by ATTEX) and a POSS were installed. At Squamish, a wind profiler and a POSS were installed. Weather sensors were mounted on the Whistler Village Gondola and on the Peak to Peak gondola. Sites were established along the Whistler Mountain slope and at other key locations. The combination of sites and instruments formed a comprehensive network to provide observations appropriate for nowcasting in winter complex terrain and investigate precipitation, visibility and wind processes. The contribution provides a detailed description of the network, their sensors, the innovations and some examples.« less

The LATEST Project: Operational Assessment of Total Lightning Data in the U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven

2004-01-01

A government, university, and industry alliance has joined forces to transition total lightning observations from ground-based research networks and NASA satellites (LIS/TRMM) to improve the short range prediction of severe weather. This interest builds on the desire of the U.S Weather Research Program to foster a national Nowcasting Test Bed, with this specific transition activity initiated through the NASA short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL. A kick-off national workshop sponsored by the SPoRT Center was held in Huntsville April 1-2 to identify the common goals and objectives of the research and operational community, and to assign roles and responsibilities within the alliance. The workshop agenda, presentations, and summary are available at the SPoRT Center Web site ( h h under the "Meetings" tab. The next national workshop is planned for 2005 in Dallas, TX. The NASA North Alabama regional Lightning Mapping Array &MA) has been operational in the Huntsville area for 3 years, and has continuously sampled a variety of severe weather systems during that period. A gridded version of the LMA total lightning data is currently being supplied to National Weather Service offices in Huntsville, Nashville and Birmingham through the NWS AWES decision support system, for the purposes of assessing the utility of the data in the nowcasting of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, flash flooding and other weather hazards (lightning induced forest fires, microbursts). While the raw LMA data have been useful to NWS forecasters, even greater utility would be realized if higher-order data products could be supplied through AWIPS along with the gridded data over a larger domain. In 2003-2004 additional LMA systems have been deployed across the southern US. from Florida to New Mexico, providing an opportunity for more than 20 NWS forecast offices to evaluate the incremental value of total lightning data in the warning decision making process.

Using Citizen Science and Crowdsourcing via Aurorasaurus as a Near Real Time Data Source for Space Weather Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, E.; Heavner, M.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.; Lalone, N.; Clayon, J.; Case, N.

2014-12-01

Aurorasaurus is on the cutting edge of space science, citizen science, and computer science simultaneously with the broad goals to develop a real-time citizen science network, educate the general public about the northern lights, and revolutionize real-time space weather nowcasting of the aurora for the public. We are currently in the first solar maximum with social media, which enables the technological roots to connect users, citizen scientists, and professionals around a shared global, rare interest. We will introduce the project which has been in a prototype mode since 2012 and recently relaunched with a new mobile and web presence and active campaigns. We will showcase the interdisciplinary advancements which include a more educated public, disaster warning system applications, and improved real-time ground truth data including photographs and observations of the Northern Lights. We will preview new data which validates the proof of concept for significant improvements in real-time space weather nowcasting. Our aim is to provide better real-time notifications of the visibility of the Northern Lights to the interested public via the combination of noisy crowd-sourced ground truth with noisy satellite-based predictions. The latter data are available now but are often delivered with significant jargon and uncertainty, thus reliable, timely interpretation of such forecasts by the public are problematic. The former data show real-time characteristic significant rises (in tweets for instance) that correlate with other non-real-time indices of auroral activity (like the Kp index). We will discuss the source of 'noise' in each data source. Using citizen science as a platform to provide a basis for deeper understanding is one goal; secondly we want to improve understanding of and appreciation for the dynamics and beauty of the Northern Lights by the public and scientists alike.

The NRL relocatable ocean/acoustic ensemble forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowley, C.; Martin, P.; Cummings, J.; Jacobs, G.; Coelho, E.; Bishop, C.; Hong, X.; Peggion, G.; Fabre, J.

2009-04-01

A globally relocatable regional ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed to support rapid implementation of new regional forecast domains. The system is in operational use at the Naval Oceanographic Office for a growing number of regional and coastal implementations. The new system is the basis for an ocean acoustic ensemble forecast and adaptive sampling capability. We present an overview of the forecast system and the ocean ensemble and adaptive sampling methods. The forecast system consists of core ocean data analysis and forecast modules, software for domain configuration, surface and boundary condition forcing processing, and job control, and global databases for ocean climatology, bathymetry, tides, and river locations and transports. The analysis component is the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system, a 3D multivariate optimum interpolation system that produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, geopotential, and vector velocity using remotely-sensed SST, SSH, and sea ice concentration, plus in situ observations of temperature, salinity, and currents from ships, buoys, XBTs, CTDs, profiling floats, and autonomous gliders. The forecast component is the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). The system supports one-way nesting and multiple assimilation methods. The ensemble system uses the ensemble transform technique with error variance estimates from the NCODA analysis to represent initial condition error. Perturbed surface forcing or an atmospheric ensemble is used to represent errors in surface forcing. The ensemble transform Kalman filter is used to assess the impact of adaptive observations on future analysis and forecast uncertainty for both ocean and acoustic properties.

Development of Radar-Satellite Blended QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) Technique for heavy rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Sangmin; Yoon, Sunkwon; Rhee, Jinyoung; Park, Kyungwon

2016-04-01

Due to the recent extreme weather and climate change, a frequency and size of localized heavy rainfall increases and it may bring various hazards including sediment-related disasters, flooding and inundation. To prevent and mitigate damage from such disasters, very short range forecasting and nowcasting of precipitation amounts are very important. Weather radar data very useful in monitoring and forecasting because weather radar has high resolution in spatial and temporal. Generally, extrapolation based on the motion vector is the best method of precipitation forecasting using radar rainfall data for a time frame within a few hours from the present. However, there is a need for improvement due to the radar rainfall being less accurate than rain-gauge on surface. To improve the radar rainfall and to take advantage of the COMS (Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite) data, a technique to blend the different data types for very short range forecasting purposes was developed in the present study. The motion vector of precipitation systems are estimated using 1.5km CAPPI (Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator) reflectivity by pattern matching method, which indicates the systems' direction and speed of movement and blended radar-COMS rain field is used for initial data. Since the original horizontal resolution of COMS is 4 km while that of radar is about 1 km, spatial downscaling technique is used to downscale the COMS data from 4 to 1 km pixels in order to match with the radar data. The accuracies of rainfall forecasting data were verified utilizing AWS (Automatic Weather System) observed data for an extreme rainfall occurred in the southern part of Korean Peninsula on 25 August 2014. The results of this study will be used as input data for an urban stream real-time flood early warning system and a prediction model of landslide. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (13SCIPS04) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of Korea government and Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA).

Uncertainty evaluation of a regional real-time system for rain-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas; Yatheendradas, Soni

2015-04-01

A new prototype regional model and evaluation framework has been developed over Central America and the Caribbean region using satellite-based information including precipitation estimates, modeled soil moisture, topography, soils, as well as regionally available datasets such as road networks and distance to fault zones. The algorithm framework incorporates three static variables: a susceptibility map; a 24-hr rainfall triggering threshold; and an antecedent soil moisture variable threshold, which have been calibrated using historic landslide events. The thresholds are regionally heterogeneous and are based on the percentile distribution of the rainfall or antecedent moisture time series. A simple decision tree algorithm framework integrates all three variables with the rainfall and soil moisture time series and generates a landslide nowcast in real-time based on the previous 24 hours over this region. This system has been evaluated using several available landslide inventories over the Central America and Caribbean region. Spatiotemporal uncertainty and evaluation metrics of the model are presented here based on available landslides reports. This work also presents a probabilistic representation of potential landslide activity over the region which can be used to further refine and improve the real-time landslide hazard assessment system as well as better identify and characterize the uncertainties inherent in this type of regional approach. The landslide algorithm provides a flexible framework to improve hazard estimation and reduce uncertainty at any spatial and temporal scale.

Cooperative Autonomous Observation of Volcanic Environments with sUAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravela, S.

2015-12-01

The Cooperative Autonomous Observing System Project (CAOS) at the MIT Earth Signals and Systems Group has developed methodology and systems for dynamically mapping coherent fluids such as plumes using small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS). In the CAOS approach, two classes of sUAS, one remote the other in-situ, implement a dynamic data-driven mapping system by closing the loop between Modeling, Estimation, Sampling, Planning and Control (MESPAC). The continually gathered measurements are assimilated to produce maps/analyses which also guide the sUAS network to adaptively resample the environment. Rather than scan the volume in fixed Eulerian or Lagrangian flight plans, the adaptive nature of the sampling process enables objectives for efficiency and resilience to be incorporated. Modeling includes realtime prediction using two types of reduced models, one based on nowcasting remote observations of plume tracer using scale-cascaded alignment, and another based on dynamically-deformable EOF/POD developed for coherent structures. Ensemble-based Information-theoretic machine learning approaches are used for the highly non-linear/non-Gaussian state/parameter estimation, and for planning. Control of the sUAS is based on model reference control coupled with hierarchical PID. MESPAC is implemented in part on a SkyCandy platform, and implements an airborne mesh that provides instantaneous situational awareness and redundant communication to an operating fleet. SkyCandy is deployed on Itzamna Aero's I9X/W UAS with low-cost sensors, and is currently being used to study the Popocatepetl volcano. Results suggest that operational communities can deploy low-cost sUAS to systematically monitor whilst optimizing for efficiency/maximizing resilience. The CAOS methodology is applicable to many other environments where coherent structures are present in the background. More information can be found at caos.mit.edu.

E-GVAP, the EIG EUMETNET GNSS Water Vapour Programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J.; de Haan, S.; Vedel, H.

2011-12-01

The main purpose of E-GVAP is to deliver near real-time (NRT) ground based GNSS delay data for usage in operational meteorology. This involves the collection and processing of raw GNSS data to estimate zenith total delay (ZTD) and subsequent collection and distribution of ZTD data to European national meteorological services. Validation and quality control, production of 2D animated water vapour maps, development of best practices for GNSS data processing and data usage in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, are other important aspects. Furthermore there is a current push for more real-time observations which would have positive impacts in high both resolution NWP and for nowcasting applications. We present an overview of the current status of E-GVAP.

User's Manual for the Naval Interactive Data Analysis System-Climatologies (NIDAS-C), Version 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbott, Clifton

1996-01-01

This technical note provides the user's manual for the NIDAS-C system developed for the naval oceanographic office. NIDAS-C operates using numerous oceanographic data categories stored in an installed version of the Naval Environmental Operational Nowcast System (NEONS), a relational database management system (rdbms) which employs the ORACLE proprietary rdbms engine. Data management, configuration, and control functions for the supporting rdbms are performed externally. NIDAS-C stores and retrieves data to/from the rdbms but exercises no direct internal control over the rdbms or its configuration. Data is also ingested into the rdbms, for use by NIDAS-C, by external data acquisition processes. The data categories employed by NIDAS-C are as follows: Bathymetry - ocean depth at

Application of GPS Technologies to study Pre-earthquake processes. A review and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulinets, S. A.; Liu, J. Y. G.; Ouzounov, D.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Hattori, K.; Krankowski, A.; Zakharenkova, I.; Cherniak, I.

2016-12-01

We present the progress reached by the GPS TEC technologies in study of pre-seismic anomalies in the ionosphere appearing few days before the strong earthquakes. Starting from the first case studies such as 17 August 1999 M7.6 Izmit earthquake in Turkey the technology has been developed and converted into the global near real-time monitoring of seismo-ionospheric effects which is used now in the multiparameter nowcast and forecast of the strong earthquakes. Development of the techniques of the seismo-ionospheric anomalies identification was carried out in parallel with the development of the physical mechanism explaining these anomalies generation. It was established that the seismo-ionospheric anomalies have a self-similarity property, are dependent on the local time and are persistent at least for 4 hours, deviation from undisturbed level could be both positive and negative depending on the leading time (in days) to the moment of impending earthquake and from longitude of anomaly in relation to the epicenter longitude. Low latitude and near equatorial earthquakes demonstrate the magnetically conjugated effect, while the middle and high latitude earthquakes demonstrate the single anomaly over the earthquake preparation zone. From the anomalies morphology the physical mechanism was derived within the framework of the more complex Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling concept. In addition to the multifactor analysis of the GPS TEC time series the GIM MAP technology was applied also clearly showing the seismo-ionospheric anomalies locality and their spatial size correspondence to the Dobrovolsky determination of the earthquake preparation zone radius. Application of ionospheric tomography techniques permitted to study not only the total electron content variations but also the modification of the vertical distribution of electron concentration in the ionosphere before earthquakes. The statistical check of the ionospheric precursors passed the Molchan diagram criteria, the most severe criteria used in seismology for precursor's verification.

Broadcast media and the dissemination of weather information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byrnes, J.

1973-01-01

Although television is the public's most preferred source of weather information, it fails to provide weather reports to those groups who seek the information early in the day and during the day. The result is that many people most often use radio as a source of information, yet preferring the medium of television. The public actively seeks weather information from both radio and TV stations, usually seeking information on current conditions and short range forecasts. forecasts. Nearly all broadcast stations surveyed were eager to air severe weather bulletins quickly and often. Interest in Nowcasting was high among radio and TV broadcasters, with a significant portion indicating a willingness to pay something for the service. However, interest among TV stations in increasing the number of daily reports was small.

Aurorasaurus: A citizen science platform for viewing and reporting the aurora

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, E. A.; Case, N. A.; Clayton, J. H.; Hall, M. K.; Heavner, M.; Lalone, N.; Patel, K. G.; Tapia, A.

2015-09-01

A new, citizen science-based, aurora observing and reporting platform has been developed with the primary aim of collecting auroral observations made by the general public to further improve the modeling of the aurora. In addition, the real-time ability of this platform facilitates the combination of citizen science observations with auroral oval models to improve auroral visibility nowcasting. Aurorasaurus provides easily understandable aurora information, basic gamification, and real-time location-based notification of verified aurora activity to engage citizen scientists. The Aurorasaurus project is one of only a handful of space weather citizen science projects and can provide useful results for the space weather and citizen science communities. Early results are promising with over 2000 registered users submitting over 1000 aurora observations and verifying over 1700 aurora sightings posted on Twitter.

Efficient transfer of weather information to the pilot in flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcfarland, R. H.

1982-01-01

Efficient methods for providing weather information to the pilot in flight are summarized. Use of discrete communications channels in the aeronautical, VHF band or subcarriers in the VOR navigation band are considered the best possibilities. Data rates can be provided such that inputs to the ground based transmitters from 2400 band telephone lines are easily accommodated together with additional data. The crucial weather data considered for uplinking are identified as radar reflectivity patterns relating to precipitation, spherics data, hourly sequences, nowcasts, forecasts, cloud top heights with freezing and icing conditions, the critical weather map and satellite maps. NEXRAD, the ground based, Doppler weather radar which will produce an improved weather product also encourages use of an uplink to fully utilize its capability to improve air safety.

Nowcast and Short-Term Forecast of Solar Radiation for Photovoltaic power and Solar thermal using 3rd generation geostationary satellite.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takenaka, H.; Teruyuki, N.; Nakajima, T. Y.; Higurashi, A.; Hashimoto, M.; Suzuki, K.; Uchida, J.; Nagao, T. M.; Shi, C.; Inoue, T.

2017-12-01

It is important to estimate the earth's radiation budget accurately for understanding of climate. Clouds can cool the Earth by reflecting solar radiation but also maintain warmth by absorbing and emitting terrestrial radiation. similarly aerosols also have an effect on radiation budget by absorption and scattering of Solar radiation. In this study, we developed the high speed and accurate algorithm for shortwave (SW) radiation budget and it's applied to geostationary satellite for rapid analysis. It enabled highly accurate monitoring of solar radiation and photo voltaic (PV) power generation. Next step, we try to update the algorithm for retrieval of Aerosols and Clouds. It indicates the accurate atmospheric parameters for estimation of solar radiation. (This research was supported in part by CREST/EMS).

An Overview of Ecological Modeling and Machine Learning Research Within the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coughlan, Joseph C.

2004-01-01

In the early 1980 s NASA began research to understand global habitability and quantify the processes and fluxes between the Earth's vegetation and the biosphere. This effort evolved into the Earth Observing System Program which current encompasses 18 platforms and 80 sensors. During this time, the global environmental research community has evolved from a data poor to a data rich research area and is challenged to provide timely use of these new data. This talk will outline some of the data mining research NASA has funded in support for the environmental sciences in the Intelligent Systems project and will give a specific example in ecological forecasting, predicting the land surface properties given nowcasts and weather forecasts, using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS).

Testing a polarimetric cloud imager aboard research vessel Polarstern: comparison of color-based and polarimetric cloud detection algorithms.

PubMed

Barta, András; Horváth, Gábor; Horváth, Ákos; Egri, Ádám; Blahó, Miklós; Barta, Pál; Bumke, Karl; Macke, Andreas

2015-02-10

Cloud cover estimation is an important part of routine meteorological observations. Cloudiness measurements are used in climate model evaluation, nowcasting solar radiation, parameterizing the fluctuations of sea surface insolation, and building energy transfer models of the atmosphere. Currently, the most widespread ground-based method to measure cloudiness is based on analyzing the unpolarized intensity and color distribution of the sky obtained by digital cameras. As a new approach, we propose that cloud detection can be aided by the additional use of skylight polarization measured by 180° field-of-view imaging polarimetry. In the fall of 2010, we tested such a novel polarimetric cloud detector aboard the research vessel Polarstern during expedition ANT-XXVII/1. One of our goals was to test the durability of the measurement hardware under the extreme conditions of a trans-Atlantic cruise. Here, we describe the instrument and compare the results of several different cloud detection algorithms, some conventional and some newly developed. We also discuss the weaknesses of our design and its possible improvements. The comparison with cloud detection algorithms developed for traditional nonpolarimetric full-sky imagers allowed us to evaluate the added value of polarimetric quantities. We found that (1) neural-network-based algorithms perform the best among the investigated schemes and (2) global information (the mean and variance of intensity), nonoptical information (e.g., sun-view geometry), and polarimetric information (e.g., the degree of polarization) improve the accuracy of cloud detection, albeit slightly.

A new approach for assimilation of two-dimensional radar precipitation in a high resolution NWP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korsholm, Ulrik; Petersen, Claus; Hansen Sass, Bent; Woetman, Niels; Getreuer Jensen, David; Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; GIll, Rasphal; Vedel, Henrik

2014-05-01

The DMI nowcasting system has been running in a pre-operational state for the past year. The system consists of hourly simulations with the High Resolution Limited Area weather model combined with surface and three-dimensional variational assimilation at each restart and nudging of satellite cloud products and radar precipitation. Nudging of a two-dimensional radar reflectivity CAPPI product is achieved using a new method where low level horizontal divergence is nudged towards pseudo observations. Pseudo observations are calculated based on an assumed relation between divergence and precipitation rate and the strength of the nudging is proportional to the offset between observed and modelled precipitation leading to increased moisture convergence below cloud base if there is an under-production of precipitation relative to the CAPPI product. If the model over-predicts precipitation, the low level moisture source is reduced, and in-cloud moisture is nudged towards environmental values. In this talk results will be discussed based on calculation of the fractions skill score in cases with heavy precipitation over Denmark. Furthermore, results from simulations combining reflectivity nudging and extrapolation of reflectivity will be shown. Results indicate that the new method leads to fast adjustment of the dynamical state of the model to facilitate precipitation release when the model precipitation intensity is too low. Removal of precipitation is also shown to be of importance and strong improvements were found in the position of the precipitation systems. Bias is reduced for low and extreme precipitation rates.

MicroRadarNet: A network of weather micro radars for the identification of local high resolution precipitation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turso, S.; Paolella, S.; Gabella, M.; Perona, G.

2013-01-01

In this paper, MicroRadarNet, a novel micro radar network for continuous, unattended meteorological monitoring is presented. Key aspects and constraints are introduced. Specific design strategies are highlighted, leading to the technological implementations of this wireless, low-cost, low power consumption sensor network. Raw spatial and temporal datasets are processed on-board in real-time, featuring a consistent evaluation of the signals from the sensors and optimizing the data loads to be transmitted. Network servers perform the final post-elaboration steps on the data streams coming from each unit. Final network products are meteorological mappings of weather events, monitored with high spatial and temporal resolution, and lastly served to the end user through any Web browser. This networked approach is shown to imply a sensible reduction of the overall operational costs, including management and maintenance aspects, if compared to the traditional long range monitoring strategy. Adoption of the TITAN storm identification and nowcasting engine is also here evaluated for in-loop integration within the MicroRadarNet data processing chain. A brief description of the engine workflow is provided, to present preliminary feasibility results and performance estimates. The outcomes were not so predictable, taking into account relevant operational differences between a Western Alps micro radar scenario and the long range radar context in the Denver region of Colorado. Finally, positive results from a set of case studies are discussed, motivating further refinements and integration activities.

Design strategies for human & earth systems modeling to meet emerging multi-scale decision support needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spak, S.; Pooley, M.

2012-12-01

The next generation of coupled human and earth systems models promises immense potential and grand challenges as they transition toward new roles as core tools for defining and living within planetary boundaries. New frontiers in community model development include not only computational, organizational, and geophysical process questions, but also the twin objectives of more meaningfully integrating the human dimension and extending applicability to informing policy decisions on a range of new and interconnected issues. We approach these challenges by posing key policy questions that require more comprehensive coupled human and geophysical models, identify necessary model and organizational processes and outputs, and work backwards to determine design criteria in response to these needs. We find that modular community earth system model design must: * seamlessly scale in space (global to urban) and time (nowcasting to paleo-studies) and fully coupled on all component systems * automatically differentiate to provide complete coupled forward and adjoint models for sensitivity studies, optimization applications, and 4DVAR assimilation across Earth and human observing systems * incorporate diagnostic tools to quantify uncertainty in couplings, and in how human activity affects them * integrate accessible community development and application with JIT-compilation, cloud computing, game-oriented interfaces, and crowd-sourced problem-solving We outline accessible near-term objectives toward these goals, and describe attempts to incorporate these design objectives in recent pilot activities using atmosphere-land-ocean-biosphere-human models (WRF-Chem, IBIS, UrbanSim) at urban and regional scales for policy applications in climate, energy, and air quality.

Prototype Local Data Integration System and Central Florida Data Deficiency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John; Case, Jonathan

1998-01-01

This report describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) task on the Local Data Integration System (LDIS) and central Florida data deficiency. The objectives of the task are to identify all existing meteorological data sources within 250 km of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Eastern Range at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), identify and configure an appropriate LDIS to integrate these data, and implement a working prototype to be used for limited case studies and data non-incorporation (DNI) experiments. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. The LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short term forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models. In combination with a suitable visualization tool, LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time. The utility of LDIS depends largely on the reliability and availability of observational data. Therefore, it is important to document all existing meteorological data sources around central Florida that can be incorporated by it. Several factors contribute to the data density and coverage over east central Florida including the level in the atmosphere, distance from KSC/CCAS, time, and prevailing weather. The central Florida mesonet consists of existing surface meteorological and hydrological data available from the Tampa NWS and data servers at Miami and Jacksonville. However the utility of these data for operational use is limited, mainly because there are relatively few additional meteorological observations within 50 km of KSC/CCAS to supplement existing METAR and KSC/CCAS tower reports.

Retrieving Arctic Sea Fog Geometrical Thickness and Inversion Characteristics from Surface and Radiosonde Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilson, Gaëlle; Jiskoot, Hester

2017-04-01

Arctic sea fog hasn't been extensively studied despite its importance for environmental impact such as on traffic safety and on glacier ablation in coastal Arctic regions. Understanding fog processes can improve nowcasting of environmental impact in such remote regions where few observational data exist. To understand fog's physical, macrophysical and radiative properties, it is important to determine accurate Arctic fog climatology. Our previous study suggested that fog peaks in July over East Greenland and associates with sea ice break-up and a sea breeze with wind speeds between 1-4 m/s. The goal of this study is to understand Arctic coastal fog macrophysical properties and quantify its vertical extent. Radiosonde profiles were extracted from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) between 1980-2012, coincident with manual and automated fog observations at three synoptic weather stations along the coast of East Greenland. A new method using air mass saturation ratio and thermodynamic stability was developed to derive fog top height from IGRA radiosonde profiles. Soundings were classified into nine categories, based on surface and low-level saturation ratio, inversion type, and the fog top height relative to the inversion base. Results show that Arctic coastal fog mainly occurs under thermodynamically stable conditions characterized by deep and strong low-level inversions. Fog thickness is commonly about 100-400 m, often reaching the top of the boundary layer. Fog top height is greater at northern stations, where daily fog duration is also longer and often lasts throughout the day. Fog thickness is likely correlated to sea ice concentration density during sea ice break-up. Overall, it is hypothesized that our sounding classes represent development or dissipation stages of advection fog, or stratus lowering and fog lifting processes. With a new automated method, it is planned to retrieve fog height from IGRA data over Arctic terrain around the entire North Atlantic region. These results will serve as a basis for the incorporation of fog and temperature inversions into glacier surface energy balance models and can aid in improving the parameterization of fog for nowcasting methods for aviation applications.

A comparative study of ionospheric IRIEup and ISP assimilative models during some intense and severe geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrella, M.; Pignalberi, A.; Pezzopane, M.; Pignatelli, A.; Azzarone, A.; Rizzi, R.

2018-05-01

Three-dimensional (3-D) electron density matrices, computed in the Mediterranean area by the IRI climatological model and IRIEup and ISP nowcasting models, during some intense and severe geomagnetic-ionospheric storms, were ingested by the ray tracing software tool IONORT, to synthesize quasi-vertical ionograms. IRIEup model was run in different operational modes: (1) assimilating validated autoscaled electron density profiles only from a limited area which, in our case, is the Mediterranean sector (IRIEup_re(V) mode); (2) assimilating electron density profiles from a larger region including several stations spread across Europe: (a) without taking care of validating the autoscaled data in the assimilation process (IRIEup(NV)); (b) validating carefully the autoscaled electron density profiles before their assimilation (IRIEup(V)). The comparative analysis was carried out comparing IRI, IRIEup_re(V), ISP, IRIEup(NV), and IRIEup(V) foF2 synthesized values, with corresponding foF2 measurements autoscaled by ARTIST, and then validated, at the truth sites of Roquetes (40.80°N, 0.50°E, Spain), San Vito (40.60°N, 17.80°E, Italy), Athens (38.00°N, 23.50°E, Greece), and Nicosia, (35.03°N, 33.16°E, Cyprus). The outcomes demonstrate that: (1) IRIEup_re(V), performs better than ISP in the western Mediterranean (around Roquetes); (2) ISP performs slightly better than IRIEup_re(V) in the central part of Mediterranean (around Athens and San Vito); (3) ISP performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one in the eastern Mediterranean (around Nicosia); (4) IRIEup(NV) performance is worse than the IRIEup(V) one; (5) in the central Mediterranean area, IRIEup(V) performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one, and it is practically the same for the western and eastern sectors. Concerning the overall performance, nowcasting models proved to be considerably more reliable than the climatological IRI model to represent the ionosphere behaviour during geomagnetic-ionospheric storm conditions; ISP and IRIEup(V) provided the best performance, but neither of them has clearly prevailed over the other one.

Pre-Launch Algorithms and Risk Reduction in Support of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William

2008-01-01

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous,full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornado activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight units is expected to begin in latter part of the year. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2B algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data provided to selected National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region are also improving our understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and help to accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications.

Pre-Launch Algorithms and Risk Reduction in Support of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William; Petersen, Walt; Buechler, Dennis; Krehbiel, Paul; Gatlin, Patrick; Zubrick, Steven

2008-01-01

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational.The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous,full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight units is expected to begin in latter part of the year. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2B algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sate]lite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data provided to selected National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region are also improving our understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and help to accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications. Abstract for the 3 rd Conference on Meteorological

Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level.

PubMed

Marques-Toledo, Cecilia de Almeida; Degener, Carolin Marlen; Vinhal, Livia; Coelho, Giovanini; Meira, Wagner; Codeço, Claudia Torres; Teixeira, Mauro Martins

2017-07-01

Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems. In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to 'nowcast', i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also 'forecast' disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access. Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist traditional Dengue surveillance at real-time and low-cost. Tweets are able to successfully nowcast, i.e. estimate Dengue in the present week, but also forecast, i.e. predict Dengue at until 8 weeks in the future, both at country and city level with high estimation capacity.

Mesoscale Numerical Simulations of the IAS Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooers, C. N.; Ko, D.

2008-05-01

Real-time nowcasts and forecasts of the IAS circulation have been made for several years with mesoscale resolution using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) implemented for the IAS. It is commonly called IASNFS and is driven by the lower resolution Global NCOM on the open boundaries, synoptic atmospheric forcing obtained from the Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and assimilated satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies and sea surface temperature. Here, examples of the model output are demonstrated; e.g., Gulf of Mexico Loop Current eddy shedding events and the meandering Caribbean Current jet and associated eddies. Overall, IASNFS is ready for further analysis, application to a variety of studies, and downscaling to even higher resolution shelf models. Its output fields are available online through NOAA's National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), located at the Stennis Space Center.

Operational applications of a process-based runoff generation module on the Swiss Plateau and Prealps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horat, Christoph; Antonetti, Manuel; Wernli, Heini; Zappa, Massimiliano

2017-04-01

Flash floods evolve rapidly during and after heavy precipitation events and represent a risk for society, especially in mountainous areas. Knowledge on meteorological variables and their temporal development is often not sufficient to predict their occurrence. Therefore, information about the state of the hydrological system derived from hydrological models is used. These models rely however on strong simplifying assumptions and need therefore to be calibrated. This prevents their application on catchments, where no runoff data is available. Here we present a flash-flood forecasting chain including: (i) a nowcasting product which combines radar and rain gauge rainfall data (CombiPrecip), (ii) meteorological data from numerical weather prediction models at currently finest available resolution (COSMO-1, COSMO-E), (iii) operationally available soil moisture estimations from the PREVAH hydrological model, and (iv) a process-based runoff generation module with no need for calibration (RGM-PRO). This last component uses information on the spatial distribution of dominant runoff processes (DRPs) which can be derived with different mapping approaches, and is parameterised a priori based on expert knowledge. First, we compared the performance of RGM-PRO with the one of a traditional conceptual runoff generation module for several events on Swiss Emme catchment, as well as on their nested catchments. Different DRP-maps are furthermore tested to evaluate the sensitivity of the forecasting chain to the mapping approaches. Then, we benchmarked the new forecasting chain with the traditional chain used on the Swiss Verzasca catchment. The results show that RGM-PRO performs similarly or even better than the traditional calibrated conceptual module on the investigated catchments. The use of strongly simplified DRP mapping approaches still leads to satisfying results, due mainly to the fact that the largest uncertainty source is represented by the meteorological input data. On the Verzasca catchment, RGM-PRO outperformed the traditional forecast chain in terms of mean absolute error, independently from the lead time and threshold quantile, whereas the Brier Skill Score did not show any clear preference. Probabilistic input data led generally to better results compared with those obtained with deterministic forecasts.

Validation of GPS atmospheric water vapor with WVR data in satellite tracking mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shangguan, M.; Heise, S.; Bender, M.; Dick, G.; Ramatschi, M.; Wickert, J.

2015-01-01

Slant-integrated water vapor (SIWV) data derived from GPS STDs (slant total delays), which provide the spatial information on tropospheric water vapor, have a high potential for assimilation to weather models or for nowcasting or reconstruction of the 3-D humidity field with tomographic techniques. Therefore, the accuracy of GPS STD is important, and independent observations are needed to estimate the quality of GPS STD. In 2012 the GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences) started to operate a microwave radiometer in the vicinity of the Potsdam GPS station. The water vapor content along the line of sight between a ground station and a GPS satellite can be derived from GPS data and directly measured by a water vapor radiometer (WVR) at the same time. In this study we present the validation results of SIWV observed by a ground-based GPS receiver and a WVR. The validation covers 184 days of data with dry and wet humidity conditions. SIWV data from GPS and WVR generally show good agreement with a mean bias of -0.4 kg m-2 and an rms (root mean square) of 3.15 kg m-2. The differences in SIWV show an elevation dependent on an rms of 7.13 kg m-2 below 15° but of 1.76 kg m-2 above 15°. Nevertheless, this elevation dependence is not observed regarding relative deviations. The relation between the differences and possible influencing factors (elevation angles, pressure, temperature and relative humidity) are analyzed in this study. Besides the elevation, dependencies between the atmospheric humidity conditions, temperature and the differences in SIWV are found.

Meteosat third generation: preliminary imagery and sounding mission concepts and performances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminou, Donny M.; Bézy, Jean-Loup; Bensi, Paolo; Stuhlmann, Rolf; Rodriguez, Antonio

2017-11-01

The operational deployment of MSG-1 at the beginning of 2004, the first of a series of four Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites, marks the start of a new era in Europe for the meteorological observations from the geostationary orbit. This new system shall be the backbone of the European operational meteorological services up to at least 2015. The time required for the definition and the development of new space systems as well as the approval process of such complex programs implies to plan well ahead for the future missions. EUMETSAT have initiated in 2001, with ESA support, a User Consultation Process aiming at preparing for a future operational geostationary meteorological satellite system in the post-MSG era, named Meteosat Third Generation (MTG). The first phase of the User Consultation Process was devoted to the definition and consolidation of end user requirements and priorities in the field of Nowcasting and Very Short Term Weather Forecasting (NWC), Medium/Short Range global and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Climate and Air Composition Monitoring and to the definition of the relevant observation techniques. After an initial post-MSG mission study (2003-2004) where preliminary instrument concepts were investigated allowing in the same time to consolidate the technical requirements for the overall system study, a MTG pre-phase A study has been performed for the overall system concept, architecture and programmatic aspects during 2004-2005 time frame. This paper provides an overview of the outcome of the MTG sensor concept studies conducted in the frame of the pre-phase A. It namely focuses onto the Imaging and Sounding Missions, highlights the resulting instrument concepts, establishes the critical technologies and introduces the study steps towards the implementation of the MTG development programme.

Satellite Proving Ground for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Gurka, James; Bruning, E. C.; Blakeslee, J. R.; Rabin, Robert; Buechler, D.

2009-01-01

The key mission of the Satellite Proving Ground is to demonstrate new satellite observing data, products and capabilities in the operational environment to be ready on Day 1 to use the GOES-R suite of measurements. Algorithms, tools, and techniques must be tested, validated, and assessed by end users for their utility before they are finalized and incorporated into forecast operations. The GOES-R Proving Ground for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) focuses on evaluating how the infusion of the new technology, algorithms, decision aids, or tailored products integrate with other available tools (weather radar and ground strike networks; nowcasting systems, mesoscale analysis, and numerical weather prediction models) in the hands of the forecaster responsible for issuing forecasts and warning products. Additionally, the testing concept fosters operation and development staff interactions which will improve training materials and support documentation development. Real-time proxy total lightning data from regional VHF lightning mapping arrays (LMA) in Northern Alabama, Central Oklahoma, Cape Canaveral Florida, and the Washington, DC Greater Metropolitan Area are the cornerstone for the GLM Proving Ground. The proxy data will simulate the 8 km Event, Group and Flash data that will be generated by GLM. Tailored products such as total flash density at 1-2 minute intervals will be provided for display in AWIPS-2 to select NWS forecast offices and national centers such as the Storm Prediction Center. Additional temporal / spatial combinations are being investigated in coordination with operational needs and case-study proxy data and prototype visualizations may also be generated from the NASA heritage Lightning Imaging Sensor and Optical Transient Detector data. End users will provide feedback on the utility of products in their operational environment, identify use cases and spatial/temporal scales of interest, and provide feedback to the developers for adjusted or new products.

Space Weather Studies Using the Low-Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valladares, C. E.; Pacheco, E.

2014-12-01

LISN is an array of small instruments that operates as a real-time distributed observatory to understand the complex day-to-day variability and the extreme state of disturbance that occurs in the South American low-latitude ionosphere nearly every day after sunset. The LISN observatory aims to forecast the initiation and transport of plasma bubbles across the South American continent. The occurrence of this type of plasma structures and their embedded irregularities poses a prominent natural hazard to communication, navigation and high precision pointing systems. As commercial and military aviation is increasingly reliant on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) any interruption due to ionospheric irregularities or errors due to large density gradients constitutes a serious threat to passengers and crew. Therefore, it is important to understand the conditions and sources that contribute to the formation of these irregularities. To achieve high quality regional nowcasts and forecasts, the LISN system was designed to include a dense coverage of the South American landmass with 47 GPS receivers, 5 flux-gate magnetometers distributed on 2 base lines and 3 Vertical Incidence Pulsed Ionospheric Radar (VIPIR) ionosondes deployed along the same magnetic meridian that intersects the magnetic equator at 68° W. This presentation will provide a summary of recent instrument installations and new processing techniques that have been developed under the LISN project. We will also present the results of recent efforts to detect TIDs and TEC plasma depletions on a near real-time basis. We will describe a method to estimate the zonal velocity and tilt of the plasma bubbles/depletions by combining observations of TEC depletions acquired with adjacent receivers, making it possible to predict precisely their future locations.

The European Ionosonde Service: nowcasting and forecasting ionospheric conditions over Europe for the ESA Space Situational Awareness services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belehaki, Anna; Tsagouri, Ioanna; Kutiev, Ivan; Marinov, Pencho; Zolesi, Bruno; Pietrella, Marco; Themelis, Kostas; Elias, Panagiotis; Tziotziou, Kostas

2015-08-01

The Earth's ionosphere is a magnetoionic medium imbedded in a background neutral atmosphere, exhibiting very interesting refractive properties, including anisotropy, dispersion, and dissipation. As such, it poses a challenge for several radio systems that make use of signal transmission through all or some portion of the medium. It is important therefore to develop prediction systems able to inform the operators of such systems about the current state of the ionosphere, about the expected effects of forthcoming space weather disturbances and about support long-term planning of operations and data post-processing projects for improving modelling and mitigation techniques. The European Space Agency (ESA) in the framework of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme has supported the development of the European Ionosonde Service (EIS) that releases a set of products to characterise the bottomside and topside ionosphere over Europe. The Service is based on a set of prediction models driven by data from ground-based ionosondes and supportive data from satellites and spacecraft. The service monitors the foF2 and the electron density profile up to the height of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) at European middle and high latitudes and provides estimates for forthcoming disturbances mainly triggered by geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The model's performance has been validated and based on these results, it was possible to issue together with the products, quality metrics characterizing the product's reliability. The EIS products meet the requirements of various SSA service domains, especially the transionospheric radio link and the spacecraft operations. Currently, the service is freely available to all interested users, and access is possible upon registration.

The Mesoscale Ionospheric Simulation Testbed (MIST) Regional Data Assimilation Model (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comberiate, J.; Kelly, M. A.; Miller, E.; Paxton, L.

2013-12-01

The Mesoscale Ionospheric Simulation Testbed (MIST) provides a regional nowcast and forecast of electron density values and has sufficient resolution to include equatorial plasma bubbles. The SSUSI instrument on the DMSP F18 satellite has high-resolution nightly observations of plasma bubbles at 8 PM local time throughout the current solar maximum. MIST can assimilate SSUSI UV observations, GPS TEC measurements, and SCINDA S4 readings simultaneously into a single scintillation map over a region of interest. MIST also models ionospheric physics to provide a short-term UHF scintillation forecast based on assimilated data. We will present examples of electron density and scintillation maps from MIST. We will also discuss the potential to predict scintillation occurrence up to 6 hours in advance using observations of the equatorial arcs from SSUSI observations at 5:30 PM local time on the DMSP F17 satellite.

Remote Sensing Observations of Thunderstorm Features in Latvia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avotniece, Zanita; Briede, Agrita; Klavins, Maris; Aniskevich, Svetlana

2017-12-01

Thunderstorms are the most hazardous meteorological phenomena in Latvia in the summer season, and the assessment of their characteristics is essential for the development of an effective national climate and weather prediction service. However, the complex nature of convective processes sets specific limitations to their observation, analysis and forecasting. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyse thunderstorm features associated with severe thunderstorms observed in weather radar and satellite data in Latvia over the period 2006-2015. The obtained results confirm the applicability of the selected thunderstorm features for thunderstorm nowcasting and analysis in Latvia. The most frequent features observed on days with thunderstorm were maximum radar reflectivities exceeding 50 dBZ and the occurrence of overshooting tops and tilted updrafts, while the occurrence of gravity waves, V-shaped storm structures and small ice particles have been found to be useful indicators of increased thunderstorm severity potential.

Predicting recreational water quality advisories: A comparison of statistical methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Wesley R.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Carvin, Rebecca B.

2016-01-01

Epidemiological studies indicate that fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in beach water are associated with illnesses among people having contact with the water. In order to mitigate public health impacts, many beaches are posted with an advisory when the concentration of FIB exceeds a beach action value. The most commonly used method of measuring FIB concentration takes 18–24 h before returning a result. In order to avoid the 24 h lag, it has become common to ”nowcast” the FIB concentration using statistical regressions on environmental surrogate variables. Most commonly, nowcast models are estimated using ordinary least squares regression, but other regression methods from the statistical and machine learning literature are sometimes used. This study compares 14 regression methods across 7 Wisconsin beaches to identify which consistently produces the most accurate predictions. A random forest model is identified as the most accurate, followed by multiple regression fit using the adaptive LASSO.

Sediment dynamics in the Adriatic Sea investigated with coupled models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, Christopher R.; Book, Jeffrey W.; Carniel, Sandro; Cavaleri, Luigi; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Das, Himangshu; Doyle, James D.; Harris, Courtney K.; Niedoroda, Alan W.; Perkins, Henry; Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Pullen, Julie; Reed, Christopher W.; Russo, Aniello; Sclavo, Mauro; Signell, Richard P.; Traykovski, Peter A.; Warner, John C.

2004-01-01

Several large research programs focused on the Adriatic Sea in winter 2002-2003, making it an exciting place for sediment dynamics modelers (Figure 1). Investigations of atmospheric forcing and oceanic response (including wave generation and propagation, water-mass formation, stratification, and circulation), suspended material, bottom boundary layer dynamics, bottom sediment, and small-scale stratigraphy were performed by European and North American researchers participating in several projects. The goal of EuroSTRATAFORM researchers is to improve our ability to understand and simulate the physical processes that deliver sediment to the marine environment and generate stratigraphic signatures. Scientists involved in the Po and Apennine Sediment Transport and Accumulation (PASTA) experiment benefited from other major research programs including ACE (Adriatic Circulation Experiment), DOLCE VITA (Dynamics of Localized Currents and Eddy Variability in the Adriatic), EACE (the Croatian East Adriatic Circulation Experiment project), WISE (West Istria Experiment), and ADRICOSM (Italian nowcasting and forecasting) studies.

Solar flare induced cosmic noise absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunmodimu, Olugbenga; Honary, Farideh; Rogers, Neil; Falayi, E. O.; Bolaji, O. S.

2018-06-01

Solar flare events are a major observing emphasis for space weather because they affect the ionosphere and can eject high-energy particles that can adversely affect Earth's technologies. In this study we model 38.2 MHz cosmic noise absorption (CNA) by utilising measurements from the Imaging Riometer for Ionospheric Studies (IRIS) at Kilpisjärvi, Finland obtained during solar cycle 23 (1996-2009). We utilised X-ray archive for the same period from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to study solar flare induced cosmic noise absorption. We identified the threshold of flare (M4 class) that could bear significant influence on CNA. Through epoch analysis, we show the magnitude of absorption that each class of flare could produce. Using the parameters of flare and absorption we present a model that could provide the basis for nowcast of CNA induced by M and X-class solar flares.

The Dynamics of Helium and its Impact on the Upper Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, E. K.; Thayer, J. P.; Wang, W.; Solomon, S. C.; Schmidt, F.

2015-12-01

The TIE-GCM was recently augmented to include helium and argon, two approximately inert species that can be used as tracers of dynamics in the thermosphere. The former species is treated as a major species due to its large abundance near the upper boundary. The effects of exospheric transport are also included in order to simulate realistic seasonal and latitudinal helium distributions. The latter species is treated as a classical minor species, imparting absolutely no forces on the background atmosphere. In this study, we examine the interplay of the various dynamical terms - i.e. background circulation, molecular and Eddy diffusion - as they drive departures from the distributions that would be expected under assumptions of diffusive equilibrium. As this has implications on the formulation of all semi-empirical thermospheric models, we use this understanding to identify the conditions under which helium can significantly affect nowcasts and forecasts of neutral density.

Application of simple all-sky imagers for the estimation of aerosol optical depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazantzidis, Andreas; Tzoumanikas, Panagiotis; Nikitidou, Efterpi; Salamalikis, Vasileios; Wilbert, Stefan; Prahl, Christoph

2017-06-01

Aerosol optical depth is a key atmospheric constituent for direct normal irradiance calculations at concentrating solar power plants. However, aerosol optical depth is typically not measured at the solar plants for financial reasons. With the recent introduction of all-sky imagers for the nowcasting of direct normal irradiance at the plants a new instrument is available which can be used for the determination of aerosol optical depth at different wavelengths. In this study, we are based on Red, Green and Blue intensities/radiances and calculations of the saturated area around the Sun, both derived from all-sky images taken with a low-cost surveillance camera at the Plataforma Solar de Almeria, Spain. The aerosol optical depth at 440, 500 and 675nm is calculated. The results are compared with collocated aerosol optical measurements and the mean/median difference and standard deviation are less than 0.01 and 0.03 respectively at all wavelengths.

Nowcast modeling of Escherichia coli concentrations at multiple urban beaches of southern Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nevers, Meredith B.; Whitman, Richard L.

2005-01-01

Predictive modeling for Escherichia coli concentrations at effluent-dominated beaches may be a favorable alternative to current, routinely criticized monitoring standards. The ability to model numerous beaches simultaneously and provide real-time data decreases cost and effort associated with beach monitoring. In 2004, five Lake Michigan beaches and the nearby Little Calumet River outfall were monitored for E. coli 7 days a week; on nine occasions, samples were analyzed for coliphage to indicate a sewage source. Ambient lake, river, and weather conditions were measured or obtained from independent monitoring sources. Positive tests for coliphage analysis indicated sewage was present in the river and on bathing beaches following heavy rainfall. Models were developed separately for days with prevailing onshore and offshore winds due to the strong influence of wind direction in determining the river's impact on the beaches. Using regression modeling, it was determined that during onshore winds, E. coli   could be adequately predicted using wave height, lake chlorophyll and turbidity, and river turbidity (R2=0.635, N=94); model performance decreased for offshore winds using wave height, wave period, and precipitation (R2=0.320, N=124). Variation was better explained at individual beaches. Overall, the models only failed to predict E. coli levels above the EPA closure limit (235 CFU/100 ml) on five of eleven occasions, indicating that the model is a more reliable alternative to the monitoring approach employed at most recreational beaches.

A Probabilistic Cell Tracking Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacker, Reinhold; Mayer, Dieter; Leiding, Tina; Lexer, Annemarie; Umdasch, Sarah

2013-04-01

The research described below was carried out during the EU-Project Lolight - development of a low cost, novel and accurate lightning mapping and thunderstorm (supercell) tracking system. The Project aims to develop a small-scale tracking method to determine and nowcast characteristic trajectories and velocities of convective cells and cell complexes. The results of the algorithm will provide a higher accuracy than current locating systems distributed on a coarse scale. Input data for the developed algorithm are two temporally separated lightning density fields. Additionally a Monte Carlo method minimizing a cost function is utilizied which leads to a probabilistic forecast for the movement of thunderstorm cells. In the first step the correlation coefficients between the first and the second density field are computed. Hence, the first field is shifted by all shifting vectors which are physically allowed. The maximum length of each vector is determined by the maximum possible speed of thunderstorm cells and the difference in time for both density fields. To eliminate ambiguities in determination of directions and velocities, the so called Random Walker of the Monte Carlo process is used. Using this method a grid point is selected at random. Moreover, one vector out of all predefined shifting vectors is suggested - also at random but with a probability that is related to the correlation coefficient. If this exchange of shifting vectors reduces the cost function, the new direction and velocity are accepted. Otherwise it is discarded. This process is repeated until the change of cost functions falls below a defined threshold. The Monte Carlo run gives information about the percentage of accepted shifting vectors for all grid points. In the course of the forecast, amplifications of cell density are permitted. For this purpose, intensity changes between the investigated areas of both density fields are taken into account. Knowing the direction and speed of thunderstorm cells is important for nowcasting. Therefore, the presented method is based on IC discharges which account for most lightning discharges and occur minutes before the first CG discharge. The cell tracking algorithm will be used as part of the integrated LoLight system. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme managed by REA-Research Executive Agency http://ec.europa.eu/research/rea ([FP7/2007-2013] [FP7/2007-2011]) under grant agreement n° [262200].

Optimal Exploitation of the Temporal and Spatial Resolution of SEVIRI for the Nowcasting of Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirch, Tobias; Bugliaro, Luca

2015-04-01

Optimal Exploitation of the Temporal and Spatial Resolution of SEVIRI for the Nowcasting of Clouds An algorithm was developed to forecast the development of water and ice clouds for the successive 5-120 minutes separately using satellite data from SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) aboard Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). In order to derive cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top height of high ice clouds "The Cirrus Optical properties derived from CALIOP and SEVIRI during day and night" (COCS, Kox et al. [2014]) algorithm is applied. For the determination of the liquid water clouds the APICS ("Algorithm for the Physical Investigation of Clouds with SEVIRI", Bugliaro e al. [2011]) cloud algorithm is used, which provides cloud cover, optical thickness and effective radius. The forecast rests upon an optical flow method determining a motion vector field from two satellite images [Zinner et al., 2008.] With the aim of determining the ideal time separation of the satellite images that are used for the determination of the cloud motion vector field for every forecast horizon time the potential of the better temporal resolution of the Meteosat Rapid Scan Service (5 instead of 15 minutes repetition rate) has been investigated. Therefore for the period from March to June 2013 forecasts up to 4 hours in time steps of 5 min based on images separated by a time interval of 5 min, 10 min, 15 min, 30 min have been created. The results show that Rapid Scan data produces a small reduction of errors for a forecast horizon up to 30 minutes. For the following time steps forecasts generated with a time interval of 15 min should be used and for forecasts up to several hours computations with a time interval of 30 min provide the best results. For a better spatial resolution the HRV channel (High Resolution Visible, 1km instead of 3km maximum spatial resolution at the subsatellite point) has been integrated into the forecast. To detect clouds the difference of the measured albedo from SEVIRI and the clear-sky albedo provided by MODIS has been used and additionally the temporal development of this quantity. A pre-requisite for this work was an adjustment of the geolocation accuracy for MSG and MODIS by shifting the MODIS data and quantifying the correlation between both data sets.

Girls' soccer performance and motivation: games vs technique approach.

PubMed

Chatzopoulos, Dimitris; Drakou, Amalia; Kotzamanidou, Marina; Tsorbatzoudis, Haralambos

2006-10-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of the Technique and Games approaches on girls' soccer performance and motivation. The Technique approach focuses on technique instruction using drills, whereas the Games approach places emphasis on tactic instruction with modified games. 37 girls, 12 to 13 years old, were taught 15 soccer lessons by the Technique approach and 35 girls by the Games approach. At the beginning and at the end of the research soccer matches were videotaped and evaluated by Oslin, Mitchell, and Griffin's Game Performance Assessment Instrument. Girls' motivation was assessed on the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory. The Games group had significantly better scores after training on tactical behaviour and intrinsic motivation than the Technique group. There were no significant differences in skill execution between groups trained under the two approaches. Considering the importance of intrinsic motivation for a lifelong, physically active lifestyle, researchers could focus study on the approaches and girls' motivation.

Scaling Techniques for Combustion Device Random Vibration Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, R. J.; Ferebee, R. C.; Duvall, L. D.

2016-01-01

This work presents compares scaling techniques that can be used for prediction of combustion device component random vibration levels with excitation due to the internal combustion dynamics. Acceleration and unsteady dynamic pressure data from multiple component test programs are compared and normalized per the two scaling approaches reviewed. Two scaling technique are reviewed and compared against the collected component test data. The first technique is an existing approach developed by Barrett, and the second technique is an updated approach new to this work. Results from utilizing both techniques are presented and recommendations about future component random vibration prediction approaches are given.

A preliminary study of the benefits of flying by ground speed during final approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hastings, E. C., Jr.

1978-01-01

A study was conducted to evaluate the benefits of an approach technique which utilized constant ground speed on approach. It was determined that the technique reduced the capacity losses in headwinds experienced with the currently used constant airspeed technique. The benefits of technique were found to increase as headwinds increased and as the wake avoidance separation intervals were reduced. An additional benefit noted for the constant ground speed technique was a reduction in stopping distance variance due to the approach wind environment.

Performance analysis of clustering techniques over microarray data: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Rasmita; Misra, Bijan Bihari

2018-03-01

Handling big data is one of the major issues in the field of statistical data analysis. In such investigation cluster analysis plays a vital role to deal with the large scale data. There are many clustering techniques with different cluster analysis approach. But which approach suits a particular dataset is difficult to predict. To deal with this problem a grading approach is introduced over many clustering techniques to identify a stable technique. But the grading approach depends on the characteristic of dataset as well as on the validity indices. So a two stage grading approach is implemented. In this study the grading approach is implemented over five clustering techniques like hybrid swarm based clustering (HSC), k-means, partitioning around medoids (PAM), vector quantization (VQ) and agglomerative nesting (AGNES). The experimentation is conducted over five microarray datasets with seven validity indices. The finding of grading approach that a cluster technique is significant is also established by Nemenyi post-hoc hypothetical test.

The relationship between extreme precipitation events and landslides distributions in 2009 in Lower Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katzensteiner, H.; Bell, R.; Petschko, H.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

The prediction and forecast of widespread landsliding for a given triggering event is an open research question. Numerous studies tried to link spatial rainfall and landslide distributions. This study focuses on analysing the relationship between intensive precipitation and rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in the year 2009 in Lower Austria. Landslide distributions were gained from the building ground register, which is maintained by the Geological Survey of Lower Austria. It contains detailed information of landslides, which were registered due to damage reports. Spatially distributed rainfall estimates were extracted from INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) precipitation analysis, which is a combination of station data interpolation and radar data in a spatial resolution of 1km developed by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna, Austria. The importance of the data source is shown by comparing rainfall data based on reference gauges, spatial interpolation and INCA-analysis for a certain storm period. INCA precipitation data can detect precipitating cells that do not hit a station but might trigger a landslide, which is an advantage over the application of reference stations for the definition of rainfall thresholds. Empirical thresholds at regional scale were determined based on rainfall-intensity and duration in the year 2009 and landslide information. These thresholds are dependent on the criteria which separate the landslide triggering and non-triggering precipitation events from each other. Different approaches for defining thresholds alter the shape of the threshold as well. A temporarily threshold I=8,8263*D^(-0.672) for extreme rainfall events in summer in Lower Austria was defined. A verification of the threshold with similar events of other years as well as following analyses based on a larger landslide database are in progress.

Investigating Atmospheric Rivers using GPS PW from Ocean Transits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almanza, V.; Foster, J. H.; Businger, S.

2014-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (AR) can be described as a long narrow feature within a warm conveyor belt where anomalous precipitable water (PW) is transported from low to high latitudes. Close monitoring of ARs is heavily reliant on satellites, which are limited both in space and time, to capture the fluctuations PW particularly over the ocean. Ship-based Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers have been successful in obtaining millimeter PW accuracy within 100 km from the nearest ground-based reference receiver at a 30 second sampling rate. We extended this capability with a field experiment using ship-based GPS PW on board a cargo ship to traverse over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. In one 14-day cruise cycle, between the periods of February 3-16, 2014, the ship-based GPS captured PW spikes >50 mm during the early development of two ARs, which lead to moderate to heavy rainfall events for Hawaii and flood conditions along the West Coast of the United States. Comparisons between PW solutions processed using different GPS reference sites at distances 100-2000 km provided an internal validation for the ship-based GPS PW with errors typically less than 5 mm. Land-based observations provided an external validation and are in good agreement with ship-based GPS PW at distances <100 km from the coast, a zone heavily trafficked by cargo containers and a challenge area for satellite retrievals. From these preliminary results, commercial ship-based GPS receivers offer an extremely cost-effective approach for acquiring continuous meteorological observations over the oceans, which can provide important calibration/validation data for satellite retrieval algorithms. Ship-based systems could be particularly useful for augmenting our meteorological observing networks to improve weather prediction and nowcasting, which in turn provide critical support for hazard response and mitigation efforts in coastal regions.

Predicting the spatial and temporal distributions of marine fish species utilizing earth system data in a MaxEnt model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Kerr, L. A.; Bridger, E.

2016-02-01

Changes in species distributions have been widely associated with climate change. Understanding how ocean temperatures influence species distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change as well as for forecasting how species may be distributed in the future. As such, species distribution modeling (SDM) is increasingly useful in marine ecosystems research, as it can enable estimation of the likelihood of encountering marine fish in space or time as a function of a set of environmental and ecosystem conditions. Many traditional SDM approaches are applied to species data collected through standardized methods that include both presence and absence records, but are incapable of using presence-only data, such as those collected from fisheries or through citizen science programs. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models provide promising tools as they can predict species distributions from incomplete information (presence-only data). We developed a MaxEnt framework to relate the occurrence records of several marine fish species (e.g. Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and butterfish) to environmental conditions. Environmental variables derived from remote sensing, such as monthly average sea surface temperature (SST), are matched with fish species data, and model results indicate the relative occurrence rate of the species as a function of the environmental variables. The results can be used to provide hindcasts of where species might have been in the past in relation to historical environmental conditions, nowcasts in relation to current conditions, and forecasts of future species distributions. In this presentation, we will assess the relative influence of several environmental factors on marine fish species distributions, and evaluate the effects of data coverage on these presence-only models. We will also discuss how the information from species distribution forecasts can support climate adaptation planning in marine fisheries.

Monitoring water phase dynamics in winter clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, Edwin F.; Ware, Randolph; Joe, Paul; Hudak, David

2014-10-01

This work presents observations of water phase dynamics that demonstrate the theoretical Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen concepts in mixed-phase winter storms. The work analyzes vertical profiles of air vapor pressure, and equilibrium vapor pressure over liquid water and ice. Based only on the magnitude ranking of these vapor pressures, we identified conditions where liquid droplets and ice particles grow or deplete simultaneously, as well as the conditions where droplets evaporate and ice particles grow by vapor diffusion. The method is applied to ground-based remote-sensing observations during two snowstorms, using two distinct microwave profiling radiometers operating in different climatic regions (North American Central High Plains and Great Lakes). The results are compared with independent microwave radiometer retrievals of vertically integrated liquid water, cloud-base estimates from a co-located ceilometer, reflectivity factor and Doppler velocity observations by nearby vertically pointing radars, and radiometer estimates of liquid water layers aloft. This work thus makes a positive contribution toward monitoring and nowcasting the evolution of supercooled droplets in winter clouds.

Mesocyclones in Central Europe as seen by radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wapler, Kathrin; Hengstebeck, Thomas; Groenemeijer, Pieter

2016-02-01

The occurrence and characteristics of mesocyclones in Central Europe as seen by radar are analysed. A three year analysis shows an annual and diurnal cycle with a wider maximum in the late afternoon/evening compared to the diurnal cycle of general thunderstorms. Analysis of F2 tornado events and over a hundred hail storms show the characteristics of the corresponding mesocyclones as seen by radar. For all of the six F2 tornadoes in the three-year period in Germany a corresponding mesocyclone could be detected in radar data. Furthermore the analysis reveals that about half of all hail storms in Germany are associated with a mesocyclone detected in radar data within 10 km and 10 min. Some mesocyclone attributes, e.g. depth and maximum shear, and of the associated convective cell, e.g. reflectivity related parameters VIL, VILD and echotop, have predictive skill for indicating the occurrence of hail. The mesocyclone detection algorithm may support the analysis and nowcasting of severe weather events and thus support the warning process.

Short-Term Forecasts Using NU-WRF for the Winter Olympics 2018

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Petersen, Walter A.; Iguchi, Takamichi; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Molthan, Andrew

2017-01-01

The NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) will be included for testing and evaluation in the forecast demonstration project (FDP) of the International Collaborative Experiment -PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic (ICE-POP) Winter Games. An international array of radar and supporting ground based observations together with various forecast and now-cast models will be operational during ICE-POP. In conjunction with personnel from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is developing benchmark simulations for a real-time NU-WRF configuration to run during the FDP. ICE-POP observational datasets will be used to validate model simulations and investigate improved model physics and performance for prediction of snow events during the research phase (RDP) of the project The NU-WRF model simulations will also support NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground-validation physical and direct validation activities in relation to verifying, testing and improving satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over complex terrain.

Experiment evaluates ocean models and data assimiliation in the Gulf Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Robert C.; Glenn, S. M.; Crowley, M. F.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.; Young, R. E.; Ezer, T.; Mellor, G. L.; Arango, H. G.; Robinson, A. R.; Lai, C.-C. A.

Using data sets of known quality as the basis for comparison, a recent experiment explored the Gulf Stream Region at 27°-47°N and 80°-50°W to assess the nowcast/forecast capability of specific ocean models and the impact of data assimilation. Scientists from five universities and the Naval Research Laboratory/Stennis Space Center participated in the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEÉ-GSR).DAMEÉ-GSR was based on case studies, each successively more complex, and was divided into three phases using case studies (data) from 1987 and 1988. Phase I evaluated models' forecast capability using common initial conditions and comparing model forecast fields with observational data at forecast time over a 2-week period. Phase II added data assimilation and assessed its impact on forecast capability, using the same case studies as in phase I, and phase III added a 2-month case study overlapping some periods in Phases I and II.

Continuous assimilation of simulated Geosat altimetric sea level into an eddy-resolving numerical ocean model. I - Sea level differences. II - Referenced sea level differences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Warren B.; Tai, Chang-Kou; Holland, William R.

1990-01-01

The optimal interpolation method of Lorenc (1981) was used to conduct continuous assimilation of altimetric sea level differences from the simulated Geosat exact repeat mission (ERM) into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic eddy-resolving numerical ocean box model that simulates the statistics of mesoscale eddy activity in the western North Pacific. Assimilation was conducted continuously as the Geosat tracks appeared in simulated real time/space, with each track repeating every 17 days, but occurring at different times and locations within the 17-day period, as would have occurred in a realistic nowcast situation. This interpolation method was also used to conduct the assimilation of referenced altimetric sea level differences into the same model, performing the referencing of altimetric sea sevel differences by using the simulated sea level. The results of this dynamical interpolation procedure are compared with those of a statistical (i.e., optimum) interpolation procedure.

Space Weather effects on airline communications in the high latitude regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honary, Farideh

2014-05-01

Efficient air traffic management depends on reliable communications between aircraft and the air traffic control centres at all times. At high latitudes, and especially on polar routing, VHF ground infrastructure does not exist and the aircraft have to rely on HF radio for communications. HF relies on reflections from the ionosphere to achieve long distance communications. Unfortunately the high latitude ionosphere is affected by space weather events. During such events HF radio communication can be severely disrupted and aircraft are forced to use longer low latitude routes with consequent increased flight time, fuel consumption and cost. This presentation describes a new research programme at the University of Lancaster in collaboration with the University of Leicester, Solar Metrics Ltd and Natural Resources Canada for the development of a nowcasting and forecasting HF communications tool designed for the particular needs of civilian airlines. This project funded by EPSRC will access a wide variety of solar and interplanetary measurements to derive a complete picture of space weather disturbances affecting radio absorption and reflection

Improving an Atlantic Fisheries DSS using Sea Surface Salinity Data from NASA's Aquarius Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guest, DeNeice

2007-01-01

This report assesses the capacity of incorporating NASA#s Aquarius SSS (sea surface salinity) data into the SMAST (School of Marine Science and Technology) DSS for Fisheries Science. This data will enhance the SMAST DSS by providing SSS over a large area. Aquarius is a focused satellite mission designed to measure global SSS. SSS mapping is limited because conventional in situ SSS sampling is too sparse to give a large-scale view of the salinity variability. Aquarius will resolve missing physical processes that link the water cycle, the climate, and the ocean. The SMAST Fisheries program provides a DSS for fisheries science. It collects fisheries and environmental data, integrates them into a suite of data assimilation ocean models, and provides hindcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts for fisheries research, fisheries management, and the fishery industry. Currently, SMAST is using SSS data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration#s National Data Buoy Center. The SMAST DSS would be enhanced with SSS data from the Aquarius mission.

UV Remote Sensing Data Products - Turning Data Into Knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, M.; Paxton, L.; Schaefer, R. K.; Comberiate, J.; Hsieh, S. W.; Romeo, G.; Wolven, B. C.; Zhang, Y.

2013-12-01

The DMSP/SSUSI instruments have been taking UV images of the upper atmosphere for more than a decade. Each of the SSUSI instruments takes complete global UV images on a daily basis. Although this scientific data is very valuable, it is not actionable information. Perhaps the simplest use of SSUSI data is the assimilation of radiances into the GAIM ionospheric forecast model; even then, the data must be massaged to get it into a GAIM-ingestable form. We describe a development effort funded by the DMSP program and the Air Force Weather Agency to turn the raw data into actionable information in the form of SSUSI environmental data parameters and other derived information. We will describe current nowcasts, forecasts, and other related actionable information (e.g. auroral oval forecasts) that is currently generated by the SSUSI ground processing system for AFWA, and also concepts we have for future tools (e.g., geomagnetic storm alerts, scintillation forecasts, HF radio propagation information, auroral radar clutter) to turn more of the SSUSI dataset into actionable knowledge.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yue; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Cunningham, Gregory S.

Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of thesemore » predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.« less

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation

PubMed Central

Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B.; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

2017-01-01

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications. PMID:28545077

Nowcasting Ground Magnetic Perturbations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Toth, G.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Gombosi, T. I.

2015-12-01

Predicting ground-based magnetic perturbations is a critical step towards specifying and predicting geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in high voltage transmission lines. Currently, the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), a flexible modeling framework for simulating the multi-scale space environment, is being transitioned from research to operational use (R2O) by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Upon completion of this transition, the SWMF will provide localized B/t predictions using real-time solar wind observations from L1 and the F10.7 proxy for EUV as model input. This presentation describes the operational SWMF setup and summarizes the changes made to the code to enable R2O progress. The framework's algorithm for calculating ground-based magnetometer observations will be reviewed. Metrics from data-model comparisons will be reviewed to illustrate predictive capabilities. Early data products, such as regional-K index and grids of virtual magnetometer stations, will be presented. Finally, early successes will be shared, including the code's ability to reproduce the recent March 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm.

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation.

PubMed

Andreadis, Konstantinos M; Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

2017-01-01

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications.

FlooDSuM - a decision support methodology for assisting local authorities in flood situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwanbeck, Jan; Weingartner, Rolf

2014-05-01

Decision making in flood situations is a difficult task, especially in small to medium-sized mountain catchments (30 - 500 km2) which are usually characterized by complex topography, high drainage density and quick runoff response to rainfall events. Operating hydrological models driven by numerical weather prediction systems, which have a lead-time of several hours up to few even days, would be beneficial in this case as time for prevention could be gained. However, the spatial and quantitative accuracy of such meteorological forecasts usually decrease with increasing lead-time. In addition, the sensitivity of rainfall-runoff models to inaccuracies in estimations of areal rainfall increases with decreasing catchment size. Accordingly, decisions on flood alerts should ideally be based on areal rainfall from high resolution and short-term numerical weather prediction, nowcasts or even real-time measurements, which is transformed into runoff by a hydrological model. In order to benefit from the best possible rainfall data while retaining enough time for alerting and for prevention, the hydrological model should be fast and easily applicable by decision makers within local authorities themselves. The proposed decision support methodology FlooDSuM (Flood Decision Support Methodology) aims to meet those requirements. Applying FlooDSuM, a few successive binary decisions of increasing complexity have to be processed following a flow-chart-like structure. Prepared data and straightforwardly applicable tools are provided for each of these decisions. Maps showing the current flood disposition are used for the first step. While danger of flooding cannot be excluded more and more complex and time consuming methods will be applied. For the final decision, a set of scatter-plots relating areal precipitation to peak flow is provided. These plots take also further decisive parameters into account such as storm duration, distribution of rainfall intensity in time as well as the catchment's antecedent moisture conditions. The proposed approach is currently tested in two catchments in the Swiss Pre-Alps and Alps. We will show the general setup and selected results. The findings of those case studies will lead to further improvements of the proposed approach.

USC/JPL GAIM: A Real-Time Global Ionospheric Data Assimilation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandrake, L.; Wilson, B. D.; Hajj, G.; Wang, C.; Pi, X. `; Iijima, B.

2004-12-01

We are in the midst of a revolution in ionospheric remote sensing driven by the illuminating powers of ground and space-based GPS receivers, new UV remote sensing satellites, and the advent of data assimilation techniques for space weather. The University of Southern Califronia (USC) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have jointly developed a Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM) to monitor space weather, study storm effects, and provide ionospheric calibration for DoD customers and NASA flight projects. GAIM is a physics-based 3D data assimilation model that uses both 4DVAR and Kalman filter techniques to solve for the ion & electron density state and key drivers such as equatorial electrodynamics, neutral winds, and production terms. GAIM accepts as input ground GPS TEC data from 900+ sites, occultation links from CHAMP, SAC-C, IOX, and the coming COSMIC constellation, UV limb and nadir scans from the TIMED and DMSP satellites, and in situ data from a variety of satellites (C/NOFS & DMSP). GAIM can ingest multiple data sources in real time, updates the 3D electron density grid every 5 minutes, and solves for improved drivers every 1-2 hours. GAIM density retrievals have been validated by comparisons to vertical TEC measurements from TOPEX & JASON, slant TEC measurements from independent GPS sites, density profiles from ionosondes & incoherent scatter radars, and alternative tomographic retrievals. Daily USC/JPL GAIM runs have been operational since March 2003 using 100-200 ground GPS sites as input and TOPEX/JASON and ionosondes for daily validation. A prototype real-time GAIM system has been running since May 2004. RT GAIM ingests TEC data from 77+ streaming GPS sites every 5 minutes, adds more TEC for better global coverage every hour from hourly GPS sites, and updates the ionospheric state every 5 minutes using the Kalman filter. We plan to add TEC links from COSMIC occultations and UV radiance data from the DMSP satellites, when they become available, to the daily and RT GAIM runs. Our presentation will include results from numerous validation case studies and one year of JASON validation statistics. Customers are currently evaluating the accuracy of USC/JPL GAIM "nowcasts" for ray tracing applications and trans-ionospheric path delay calibration.

Otoplasty: A graduated approach.

PubMed

Foda, H M

1999-01-01

Numerous otoplastic techniques have been described for the correction of protruding ears. Technique selection in otoplasty should be done only after careful analysis of the abnormal anatomy responsible for the protruding ear deformity. A graduated surgical approach is presented which is designed to address all contributing factors to the presenting auricular deformity. The approach starts with the more conservative cartilage-sparing suturing techniques, then proceeds to incorporate other more aggressive cartilage weakening maneuvers. Applying this approach resulted in better long-term results with less postoperative lateralization than that encountered on using the cartilage-sparing techniques alone.

Nowcast model for low-energy electrons in the inner magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganushkina, N. Yu.; Amariutei, O. A.; Welling, D.; Heynderickx, D.

2015-01-01

We present the nowcast model for low-energy (<200 keV) electrons in the inner magnetosphere, which is the version of the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) for electrons. Low-energy electron fluxes are very important to specify when hazardous satellite surface-charging phenomena are considered. The presented model provides the low-energy electron flux at all L shells and at all satellite orbits, when necessary. The model is driven by the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters with 1 h time shift for propagation to the Earth's magnetopause and by the real time Dst index. Real-time geostationary GOES 13 or GOES 15 (whenever each is available) data on electron fluxes in three energies, such as 40 keV, 75 keV, and 150 keV, are used for comparison and validation of IMPTAM running online. On average, the model provides quite reasonable agreement with the data; the basic level of the observed fluxes is reproduced. The best agreement between the modeled and the observed fluxes are found for <100 keV electrons. At the same time, not all the peaks and dropouts in the observed electron fluxes are reproduced. For 150 keV electrons, the modeled fluxes are often smaller than the observed ones by an order of magnitude. The normalized root-mean-square deviation is found to range from 0.015 to 0.0324. Though these metrics are buoyed by large standard deviations, owing to the dynamic nature of the fluxes, they demonstrate that IMPTAM, on average, predicts the observed fluxes satisfactorily. The computed binary event tables for predicting high flux values within each 1 h window reveal reasonable hit rates being 0.660-0.318 for flux thresholds of 5 ·104-2 ·105 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 keV-1 for 40 keV electrons, 0.739-0.367 for flux thresholds of 3 ·104-1 ·105 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 keV-1 for 75 keV electrons, and 0.485-0.438 for flux thresholds of 3 ·103-3.5 ·103 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 keV-1 for 150 keV electrons but rather small Heidke Skill Scores (0.17 and below). This is the first attempt to model low-energy electrons in real time at 10 min resolution. The output of this model can serve as an input of electron seed population for real-time higher-energy radiation belt modeling.

Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40 average surface air temperature (with temperature ranges adjusted to a station-based climatology). In the retrospective forecasting mode, VIC is driven by global NCEP ensemble 15-day reforecasts provided by Tom Hamill (NOAA/ERL), bias corrected with respect to the adjusted ERA40 data and further downscaled spatially using higher spatial resolution Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 1dd daily precipitation. Downward solar and longwave radiation, surface relative humidity, and other model forcings are derived from relationships with the daily temperature range during both the retrospective (spinup) and forecast period. The initial system is implemented globally at one-half degree spatial resolution. We evaluate model performance retrospectively for predictions of major floods for the Oder River in 1997, the Mekong River in 2000 and the Limpopo River in 2000.

[Minimally invasive approach for cervical spondylotic radiculopathy].

PubMed

Ding, Liang; Sun, Taicun; Huang, Yonghui

2010-01-01

To summarize the recent minimally invasive approach for cervical spondylotic radiculopathy (CSR). The recent literature at home and abroad concerning minimally invasive approach for CSR was reviewed and summarized. There were two techniques of minimally invasive approach for CSR at present: percutaneous puncture techniques and endoscopic techniques. The degenerate intervertebral disc was resected or nucleolysis by percutaneous puncture technique if CSR was caused by mild or moderate intervertebral disc herniations. The cervical microendoscopic discectomy and foraminotomy was an effective minimally invasive approach which could provide a clear view. The endoscopy techniques were suitable to treat CSR caused by foraminal osteophytes, lateral disc herniations, local ligamentum flavum thickening and spondylotic foraminal stenosis. The minimally invasive procedure has the advantages of simple handling, minimally invasive and low incidence of complications. But the scope of indications is relatively narrow at present.

Benchmark Campaign of the COST Action GNSS4SWEC: Main Goals and Achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dick, G.; Dousa, J.; Kacmarik, M.; Pottiaux, E.; Zus, F.; Brenot, H. H.; Moeller, G.; Kaplon, J.; Morel, L.; Hordyniec, P.

2016-12-01

This talk will give an overview of achievements of the Benchmark campaign, one of the central activities in the framework of the COST Action ES 1206 GNSS4SWEC. The main goal of the campaign is supporting the development and validation of advanced Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) tropospheric products, in particular high-resolution and ultra-fast/real-time zenith total delays (ZTD) and asymmetry products in terms of tropospheric horizontal gradients and slant delays.For the Benchmark campaign a complex data set of GNSS observations and various meteorological data were collected for a two-month period in 2013 (May-June) which included severe weather events in central Europe. An initial processing of data sets from GNSS and numerical weather models (NWM) provided independently estimated tropospheric reference products - ZTDs, tropospheric horizontal gradients and others. The comparison of horizontal tropospheric gradients from GNSS and NWM data demonstrated a very good agreement among independent solutions with negligible biases and an accuracy of about 0.5 mm. Visual comparisons of maps of zenith wet delays and tropospheric horizontal gradients showed very promising results for future exploitations of advanced GNSS tropospheric products in meteorological applications such as severe weather event monitoring and weather nowcasting.The benchmark data set is also used for an extensive validation of line-of-sight tropospheric Slant Total Delays (STD) from GNSS, NWM-raytracing and Water Vapour Radiometer (WVR) solutions. Six institutions delivered their STDs based on GNSS observations processed using different software and strategies. STDs from NWM ray-tracing came from three institutions using three different NWM models. Results show generally a very good mutual agreement among all solutions from all techniques. Among all an influence of adding not cleaned as well as cleaned GNSS post-fit residuals, i.e. residuals with eliminated and not eliminated non-tropospheric systematic effects such as multipath, to estimated STDs will be presented.

Global Real-Time Nowcasting of Ionosphere with Giro-Driven Assimilative IRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galkin, I. A.; Reinisch, B. W.; Huang, X. A.; Vesnin, A.; Bilitza, D.; Song, P.

2014-12-01

Real-time prediction of the ionosphere beyond its quiet-time median behavior has proved to be a great challenge: low-latency sensor data streams are scarce, and early comparisons conducted within the CEDAR ETI Assessment framework showed that, on average, the assimilative physics-based models perform on par with the long-term empirical predictions. This rather surprising result led to the formation of the Real-Time Task Force of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) science team in 2011, with a simple objective to develop a method for correcting the IRI long-term climatology definitions on the fly, i.e., in near real-time, using suitable observations. Three years later, a pilot version of the IRI-based Real-Time Assimilative Model "IRTAM" started its continuous operations at the Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) Data Center, using online feeds from the ionosondes contributing data to GIRO. The IRTAM version 0.1B builds and publishes every 15-minutes an updated "global weather" map of the peak density and height in the ionosphere, as well as a map of deviations from the classic IRI climate. Incidentally, the IRTAM verification and validation efforts shed light on the forecasting capabilities of the assimilative IRI extension, even though it has not yet involved external activity indicators. At the core of the assimilative computations, a Non-linear Error Compensation Technique for Associative Restoration (NECTAR) seeks agreement between IRI prediction and the 24-hour history of latest observations at GIRO sensor sites to produce the one map frame. The NECTAR first evaluates the diurnal harmonics of the observed deviations from the IRI climatology at each GIRO site to then independently compute the spatial maps for each diurnal harmonic. Thus obtained "corrective" coefficients of the spatial-diurnal expansion are added to the original IRI set of coefficients to obtain the IRTAM specification. We are intrigued by the IRTAM capability to glean ionospheric dynamics over no-data areas, and the potential for short-term forecasting.

Weighted hybrid technique for recommender system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suriati, S.; Dwiastuti, Meisyarah; Tulus, T.

2017-12-01

Recommender system becomes very popular and has important role in an information system or webpages nowadays. A recommender system tries to make a prediction of which item a user may like based on his activity on the system. There are some familiar techniques to build a recommender system, such as content-based filtering and collaborative filtering. Content-based filtering does not involve opinions from human to make the prediction, while collaborative filtering does, so collaborative filtering can predict more accurately. However, collaborative filtering cannot give prediction to items which have never been rated by any user. In order to cover the drawbacks of each approach with the advantages of other approach, both approaches can be combined with an approach known as hybrid technique. Hybrid technique used in this work is weighted technique in which the prediction score is combination linear of scores gained by techniques that are combined.The purpose of this work is to show how an approach of weighted hybrid technique combining content-based filtering and item-based collaborative filtering can work in a movie recommender system and to show the performance comparison when both approachare combined and when each approach works alone. There are three experiments done in this work, combining both techniques with different parameters. The result shows that the weighted hybrid technique that is done in this work does not really boost the performance up, but it helps to give prediction score for unrated movies that are impossible to be recommended by only using collaborative filtering.

Fault detection techniques for complex cable shield topologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coonrod, Kurt H.; Davis, Stuart L.; McLemore, Donald P.

1994-09-01

This document presents the results of a basic principles study which investigated technical approaches for developing fault detection techniques for use on cables with complex shielding topologies. The study was limited to those approaches which could realistically be implemented on a fielded cable, i.e., approaches which would require partial disassembly of a cable were not pursued. The general approach used was to start with present transfer impedance measurement techniques and modify their use to achieve the best possible measurement range. An alternative test approach, similar to a sniffer type test, was also investigated.

Cognitive-behavior therapy for problem gambling: a critique of current treatments and proposed new unified approach.

PubMed

Tolchard, Barry

2017-06-01

There is evidence supporting the use of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) in the treatment of problem gambling. Despite this, little is known about how CBT works and which particular approach is most effective. This paper aims to synthesize the evidence for current CBT and propose a more unified approach to treatment. A literature review and narrative synthesis of the current research evidence of CBT for the treatment of problem gambling was conducted, focusing on the underlying mechanisms within the treatment approach. Several CBT approaches were critiqued. These can be divided into forms of exposure therapy (including aversion techniques, systematic desensitization and other behavioral experiments) those focusing on cognitive restructuring techniques (such as reinforcement of nongambling activity, use of diaries, motivational enhancement and audio-playback techniques and third wave techniques including mindfulness. Findings, in relation to the treatment actions, from this synthesis are reported. The debate surrounding the treatment of problem gambling has been conducted as an either/or rather than a both/and discourse. This paper proposes a new, unified approach to the treatment of problem gambling that incorporates the best elements of both exposure and cognitive restructuring techniques, alongside the use of techniques borrowed from mindfulness and other CBT approaches.

Boundary methods for mode estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierson, William E., Jr.; Ulug, Batuhan; Ahalt, Stanley C.

1999-08-01

This paper investigates the use of Boundary Methods (BMs), a collection of tools used for distribution analysis, as a method for estimating the number of modes associated with a given data set. Model order information of this type is required by several pattern recognition applications. The BM technique provides a novel approach to this parameter estimation problem and is comparable in terms of both accuracy and computations to other popular mode estimation techniques currently found in the literature and automatic target recognition applications. This paper explains the methodology used in the BM approach to mode estimation. Also, this paper quickly reviews other common mode estimation techniques and describes the empirical investigation used to explore the relationship of the BM technique to other mode estimation techniques. Specifically, the accuracy and computational efficiency of the BM technique are compared quantitatively to the a mixture of Gaussian (MOG) approach and a k-means approach to model order estimation. The stopping criteria of the MOG and k-means techniques is the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC).

Pleomorphic Adenoma of Base of Tongue: Is Midline Mandibulotomy Necessary for Approaching Benign Base Tongue Lesions?

PubMed Central

Bansal, Sandeep; Kalsotra, Gopika; Mohammed, Abdul Wadood; Bahl, Amanjit; Gupta, Ashok K.

2012-01-01

Objective. To report a rare presentation of pleomorphic adenoma, at base tongue, excised surgically by a transoral midline glossotomy technique without mandibulotomy. Case Report. Pleomorphic adenoma is a benign tumor of the salivary gland found rarely in the base of tongue. Surgery is the definitive treatment for this tumor, and different approaches have been mentioned in the literature. In our case we surgically excised the tumor by a transoral midline glossotomy technique without mandibulotomy where we combined the cosmetic advantage of transoral technique and the exposure advantage of a glossotomy technique. Discussion. We discuss the different approaches to oropharynx, their advantages and disadvantages. Primary transoral approach provides better cosmesis but less exposure whereas median labiomandibuloglossotomy approach provides more exposure but is cosmetically unacceptable. Conclusion. A transoral midline glossotomy approach without mandibulotomy provides wide exposure with acceptable cosmesis. PMID:22953125

SPoRT's Participation in the GOES-R Proving Ground Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary; Fuell, Kevin; Smith, Matthew; Stano, Geoffrey; Molthan, Andrew

2011-01-01

The next generation geostationary satellite, GOES-R, will carry two new instruments with unique atmospheric and surface observing capabilities, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), to study short-term weather processes. The ABI will bring enhanced multispectral observing capabilities with frequent refresh rates for regional and full disk coverage to geostationary orbit to address many existing and new forecast challenges. The GLM will, for the first time, provide the continuous monitoring of total lightning flashes over a hemispherical region from space. NOAA established the GOES-R Proving Ground activity several years ago to demonstrate the new capabilities of these instruments and to prepare forecasters for their day one use. Proving Ground partners work closely with algorithm developers and the end user community to develop and transition proxy data sets representing GOES-R observing capabilities. This close collaboration helps to maximize refine algorithms leading to the delivery of a product that effectively address a forecast challenge. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has been a participant in the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground activity by developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the SPoRT program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. Participation in the Proving Ground activities extends SPoRT s activities and taps its experience and expertise in diagnostic weather analysis, short-term weather forecasting, and the transition of research and experimental data to operational decision support systems like NAWIPS, AWIPS, AWIPS2, and Google Earth. Recent SPoRT Proving Ground activities supporting the development and use of a pseudo GLM total lightning product and the transition of the AWG s Convective Initiation (CI) product, both of which were available in AWIPS and AWIPS II environments, by forecasters during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment. SPoRT is also providing a suite of SEVIRI and MODIS RGB image products, and a high resolution composite SST product to several National Centers for use in there ongoing demonstration activities. Additionally, SPoRT has involved numerous WFOs in the evaluation of a GOES-MODIS hybrid product which brings ABI-like data sets in front of the forecaster for everyday use. An overview of this activity will be presented at the conference.

SPoRT's Participation in the GOES-R Proving Ground Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedlovec, G.; Fuell, K.; Smith, M. R.; Stano, G. T.; Molthan, A.

2011-12-01

The next generation geostationary satellite, GOES-R, will carry two new instruments with unique atmospheric and surface observing capabilities, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), to study short-term weather processes. The ABI will bring enhanced multispectral observing capabilities with frequent refresh rates for regional and full disk coverage to geostationary orbit to address many existing and new forecast challenges. The GLM will, for the first time, provide the continuous monitoring of total lightning flashes over a hemispherical region from space. NOAA established the GOES-R Proving Ground activity several years ago to demonstrate the new capabilities of these instruments and to prepare forecasters for their day one use. Proving Ground partners work closely with algorithm developers and the end user community to develop and transition proxy data sets representing GOES-R observing capabilities. This close collaboration helps to maximize refine algorithms leading to the delivery of a product that effectively address a forecast challenge. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has been a participant in the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground activity by developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the SPoRT program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. Participation in the Proving Ground activities extends SPoRT's activities and taps its experience and expertise in diagnostic weather analysis, short-term weather forecasting, and the transition of research and experimental data to operational decision support systems like NAWIPS, AWIPS, AWIPS2, and Google Earth. Recent SPoRT Proving Ground activities supporting the development and use of a pseudo GLM total lightning product and the transition of the AWG's Convective Initiation (CI) product, both of which were available in AWIPS and AWIPS II environments, by forecasters during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment. SPoRT is also providing a suite of SEVIRI and MODIS RGB image products, and a high resolution composite SST product to several National Centers for use in there ongoing demonstration activities. Additionally, SPoRT has involved numerous WFOs in the evaluation of a GOES-MODIS hybrid product which brings ABI-like data sets in front of the forecaster for everyday use. An overview of this activity will be presented at the conference.

Orbiter/payload proximity operations: Lateral approach technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, J. A.; Jones, H. L.; Mcadoo, S. F.

1977-01-01

The lateral approach is presented for proximity operations associated with the retrieval of free flying payloads. An out of plane final approach emphasizing onboard software support is recommended for all except the latter segment of the final approach in which manual control is considered mandatory. An overall assessment of various candidate proximity operations techniques are made.

Endoscopic saphenous vein and radial harvest: state-of-the-art.

PubMed

Bisleri, Gianluigi; Muneretto, Claudio

2015-11-01

Over the past decade, there has been an increased adoption of minimally invasive techniques for saphenous vein and radial artery procurement during coronary artery bypass surgery, albeit concerns have been raised about the potential detrimental effects of the endoscopic approach when compared with the conventional 'open' technique. The aim of the present review is to analyse the current available techniques and evidence about the impact of an endoscopic approach on conduit quality and clinical outcomes. At present, the available techniques for endoscopic vessel harvesting can be based on a sealed or non-sealed concept, for both saphenous vein and radial artery procurement. Despite the proven advantages of a minimally invasive approach in terms of reduced incidence of wound complications, pain reduction and improved cosmetic results, some studies questioned the impact of this technique in terms of potential graft damage, thus impairing the longevity of the graft itself. Endoscopic conduit harvesting can be performed safely and effectively with the currently available techniques, albeit a careful knowledge of the pitfalls of each technique is mandatory. Since there is ample evidence in literature that a minimally invasive approach for saphenous vein and radial artery procurement is not associated with an increased risk of graft damage and related failure in the mid-long term, the endoscopic technique should be adopted as the approach of choice for saphenous vein and radial artery harvesting in coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

The Intra-Cloud Lightning Fraction in the Contiguous United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Medici, Gina; Cummins, Kenneth L.; Koshak, William J.; Rudlosky, Scott D.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Cecil, Daniel J.; Bright, David R.

2015-01-01

Lightning is dangerous and destructive; cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes can start fires, interrupt power delivery, destroy property and cause fatalities. Its rate-of-occurrence reflects storm kinematics and microphysics. For decades lightning research has been an important focus, and advances in lightning detection technology have been essential contributors to our increasing knowledge of lightning. A significant step in detection technology is the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) to be onboard the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite R-Series (GOES-R) to be launched in early 2016. GLM will provide continuous "Total Lightning" observations [CG and intra-cloud lightning (IC)] with near-uniform spatial resolution over the Americas by measuring radiance at the cloud tops from the different types of lightning. These Total Lightning observations are expected to significantly improve our ability to nowcast severe weather. It may be important to understand the long-term regional differences in the relative occurrence of IC and CG lightning in order to understand and properly use the short-term changes in Total Lightning flash rate for evaluating individual storms.

The WindStar project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCandless, Samuel W.; Jones, W. Linwood; Huxtable, Barton D.; Jones, Lawrence P.

1996-03-01

The ``WindStar'' project is a cooperative, cost-sharing venture between NASA's Earth Observations Commercial Applications Program (EOCAP), directed by the Stennis Space Center (SSC), and User Systems, Incorporated (USI), a Virginia-based remote sensing technology development company. The project seeks to establish the commercial viability of using twice-a-day satellite scatterometer data to produce marine wind forecasts for commercial television weather broadcasts. The WindStar product will be an animated, two dimensional map of wind speed and direction that evolves in time from the observed ``nowcast'' every 12 hours to a projected ``forecast''. Commercial television stations in coastal areas will incorporate this video into the weather segment of their news broadcasts to advise viewers, with both commercial and recreational interests, of coastal and off-shore conditions. While contributing to improved near shore marine operations for both recreational and commercial boaters, the proposed product would also be of use to commercial fishermen, coastal shipping operations, search and rescue operations, state and local governments, the Coast Guard, and the Navy. Projected new business plans include establishing and maintaining a ``Global Wind History'' archive that can be accessed on Internet.

Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit

DOE PAGES

Chen, Yue; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Cunningham, Gregory S.; ...

2016-02-15

Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of thesemore » predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.« less

Heat and moisture fluxes within a nighttime maritime stratus cloud during CASP II

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gultepe, I.; Issac, G.

Stratus clouds in the lower part of the atmosphere over the ocean or land can play an important role in boundary layer processes and in climate change. Physical, dynamical, and radiative processes within marine stratus clouds on both cloud and regional scale are studied for the first time during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) (Albrecht et al., 1988). These clouds can effect the nowcasting, pollution transfer, and radiative processes (Nicholls and Leighton, 1986). Similar to the FIRE stratus project, the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP) II field project was planned to obtain a bettermore » understanding of cloud physical, dynamical, radiative characteristics, and mesoscale structure of Canadian east coast storms. Here the dynamical and microphysical data, and a radiative transfer model are used to better understand a developing nighttime stratus cloud over the ocean during CASP II which took place over Atlantic Canada. Observations collected by the Convair aircraft of the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada during the CASP II field project on February 6, 1991 are presented.« less

Paracoccygeal corkscrew approach to ganglion impar injections for tailbone pain.

PubMed

Foye, Patrick M; Patel, Shounuck I

2009-01-01

A new technique for performing nerve blocks of the ganglion impar (ganglion Walther) is presented. These injections have been reported to relieve coccydynia (tailbone pain), as well as other malignant and nonmalignant pelvic pain syndromes. A variety of techniques have been previously described for blocking this sympathetic nerve ganglion, which is located in the retrorectal space just anterior to the upper coccygeal segments. Prior techniques have included approaches through the anococcygeal ligament, through the sacrococcygeal joint, and through intracoccygeal joint spaces. This article presents a new, paracoccygeal approach whereby the needle is inserted alongside the coccyx and the needle is guided through three discrete steps with a rotating or corkscrew trajectory. Compared with some of the previously published techniques, this paracoccygeal corkscrew approach has multiple potential benefits, including ease of fluoroscopic guidance using the lateral view, ability to easily use a stylet for the spinal needle, and use of a shorter, thinner needle. While no single technique works best for all patients and each technique has potential advantages and disadvantages, this new technique adds to the available options.

Comparison of Image Processing Techniques for Nonviable Tissue Quantification in Late Gadolinium Enhancement Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Images.

PubMed

Carminati, M Chiara; Boniotti, Cinzia; Fusini, Laura; Andreini, Daniele; Pontone, Gianluca; Pepi, Mauro; Caiani, Enrico G

2016-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the performance of quantitative methods, either semiautomated or automated, for left ventricular (LV) nonviable tissue analysis from cardiac magnetic resonance late gadolinium enhancement (CMR-LGE) images. The investigated segmentation techniques were: (i) n-standard deviations thresholding; (ii) full width at half maximum thresholding; (iii) Gaussian mixture model classification; and (iv) fuzzy c-means clustering. These algorithms were applied either in each short axis slice (single-slice approach) or globally considering the entire short-axis stack covering the LV (global approach). CMR-LGE images from 20 patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy were retrospectively selected, and results from each technique were assessed against manual tracing. All methods provided comparable performance in terms of accuracy in scar detection, computation of local transmurality, and high correlation in scar mass compared with the manual technique. In general, no significant difference between single-slice and global approach was noted. The reproducibility of manual and investigated techniques was confirmed in all cases with slightly lower results for the nSD approach. Automated techniques resulted in accurate and reproducible evaluation of LV scars from CMR-LGE in ischemic patients with performance similar to the manual technique. Their application could minimize user interaction and computational time, even when compared with semiautomated approaches.

A Split-Mouth Design Comparison for Lateral and Crestal Sinus Lift Techniques with Dental Implants Placements: Short Communication.

PubMed

Al-Almaie, Saad; Kavarodi, Abdul Majeed; Alorf, Ali; Alzahrani, Saeed

2017-01-01

The objective of this study is to compare and evaluate the effectiveness of implant placement and patient appraisal for two sinus lift techniques using both crestal and lateral techniques for bilateral sinus left in a split-mouth design. All implants were successfully osseointegrated without any clinical complications or peri-implant radiolucency during the follow-up period of maximum 3 years. In terms of outcomes postoperative vertigo showed to be a major concern with the crestal approach, this approach is preferred over the lateral technique because of the reduced time required for the procedure and because it is less invasive. Most patients preferred the crestal approach over the lateral approach due to the delay in implant placement.

A surgical technique to expand the operative corridor for supracerebellar infratentorial approaches: technical note.

PubMed

Rey-Dios, Roberto; Cohen-Gadol, Aaron A

2013-10-01

The supracerebellar infratentorial approach is a commonly used route in neurosurgery. It provides a narrow and deep corridor to the dorsal midbrain and pineal region. The authors describe a surgical technique to expand the operative corridor and the surgeon's working angles during this approach. Thirteen cases of patients who underwent resection of their lesions using this extended approach were reviewed. During their suboccipital craniotomy, additional bone over the transverse sinus (paramedian approach) and the confluence of the sinuses (midline approach) were removed. Two sutures (tentorial stay sutures) were anchored to the tentorium anterior to the transverse sinus and tension was applied. A video narrated by the senior author describes the details of technique. This additional bone removal and tentorial stay sutures led to gentle elevation of the tentorium and partial mobilization of the dural venous sinuses superiorly. This technique enhanced operative viewing through improved illumination and expanded working angles for microsurgical instruments while minimizing the need for fixed retractors and extensive cerebellar retraction. All patients underwent satisfactory removal of their lesions. No patient suffered from any related complication. The use of stay sutures anchored on the tentorium is a simple and effective technique that expands the surgical corridor during supracerebellar infratentorial approaches.

Ultrasound-guided shoulder MR arthrography: comparison of rotator interval and posterior approach.

PubMed

Ogul, Hayri; Bayraktutan, Ummugulsum; Ozgokce, Mesut; Tuncer, Kutsi; Yuce, Ihsan; Yalcin, Ahmet; Pirimoglu, Berhan; Sagsoz, Erdem; Kantarci, Mecit

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to prospectively evaluate the two different ultrasound-guided injection techniques for magnetic resonance (MR) arthrography of the shoulder. This study included 100 patients [50 rotator interval group (n=50) vs. 50 posterior approach group (n=50)]. All procedures were performed by the same radiologist. The two injection techniques were compared. The discomfort during and after arthrography was evaluated. Extraarticular contrast media extravasation was graded according to the MRI findings. The number of injection attempts, effect of contrast media extravasation rate on diagnostic quality and procedure times were recorded. There were no significant difference between the posterior and rotator interval puncture groups with regard to pain (P=.915), procedure times (P=.401) or attempt scores (P=.182). There were significantly more contrast media extravasations with rotator interval approach than posterior approach (P<.05). Both techniques were successful and well tolerated by patients. Posterior injection technique provided a more effective route with decreased extravasation rate and easier approach compared to the rotator interval approach. © 2014.

Efficient computational nonlinear dynamic analysis using modal modification response technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinone, Timothy; Avitabile, Peter; Foley, Jason; Wolfson, Janet

2012-08-01

Generally, structural systems contain nonlinear characteristics in many cases. These nonlinear systems require significant computational resources for solution of the equations of motion. Much of the model, however, is linear where the nonlinearity results from discrete local elements connecting different components together. Using a component mode synthesis approach, a nonlinear model can be developed by interconnecting these linear components with highly nonlinear connection elements. The approach presented in this paper, the Modal Modification Response Technique (MMRT), is a very efficient technique that has been created to address this specific class of nonlinear problem. By utilizing a Structural Dynamics Modification (SDM) approach in conjunction with mode superposition, a significantly smaller set of matrices are required for use in the direct integration of the equations of motion. The approach will be compared to traditional analytical approaches to make evident the usefulness of the technique for a variety of test cases.

Percutaneous treatment of complex biliary stone disease using endourological technique and literature review

PubMed Central

Korkes, Fernando; Carneiro, Ariê; Nasser, Felipe; Affonso, Breno Boueri; Galastri, Francisco Leonardo; de Oliveira, Marcos Belotto; Macedo, Antônio Luiz de Vasconcellos

2015-01-01

Most biliary stone diseases need to be treated surgically. However, in special cases that traditional biliary tract endoscopic access is not allowed, a multidisciplinary approach using hybrid technique with urologic instrumental constitute a treatment option. We report a case of a patient with complex intrahepatic stones who previously underwent unsuccessful conventional approaches, and who symptoms resolved after treatment with hybrid technique using an endourologic technology. We conducted an extensive literature review until October 2012 of manuscripts indexed in PubMed on the treatment of complex gallstones with hybrid technique. The multidisciplinary approach with hybrid technique using endourologic instrumental represents a safe and effective treatment option for patients with complex biliary stone who cannot conduct treatment with conventional methods. PMID:26061073

Robotic and endoscopic transoral thyroidectomy: feasibility and description of the technique in the cadaveric model.

PubMed

Kahramangil, Bora; Mohsin, Khuzema; Alzahrani, Hassan; Bu Ali, Daniah; Tausif, Syed; Kang, Sang-Wook; Kandil, Emad; Berber, Eren

2017-12-01

Numerous new approaches have been described over the years to improve the cosmetic outcomes of thyroid surgery. Transoral approach is a new technique that aims to achieve superior cosmetic outcomes by concealing the incision in the oral cavity. Transoral thyroidectomy through vestibular approach was performed in two institutions on cadaveric models. Procedure was performed endoscopically in one institution, while the robotic technique was utilized at the other. Transoral thyroidectomy was successfully performed at both institutions with robotic and endoscopic techniques. All vital structures were identified and preserved. Transoral thyroidectomy has been performed in animal and cadaveric models, as well as in some clinical studies. Our initial experience indicates the feasibility of this approach. More clinical studies are required to elucidate its full utility.

A Split-Mouth Design Comparison for Lateral and Crestal Sinus Lift Techniques with Dental Implants Placements: Short Communication

PubMed Central

Al-Almaie, Saad; Kavarodi, Abdul Majeed; Alorf, Ali; Alzahrani, Saeed

2017-01-01

Objective: The objective of this study is to compare and evaluate the effectiveness of implant placement and patient appraisal for two sinus lift techniques using both crestal and lateral techniques for bilateral sinus left in a split-mouth design. Introduction: All implants were successfully osseointegrated without any clinical complications or peri-implant radiolucency during the follow-up period of maximum 3 years. Methods: In terms of outcomes postoperative vertigo showed to be a major concern with the crestal approach, this approach is preferred over the lateral technique because of the reduced time required for the procedure and because it is less invasive. Results: Most patients preferred the crestal approach over the lateral approach due to the delay in implant placement. PMID:29290838

Dependence of radiation belt simulations to assumed radial diffusion rates tested for two empirical models of radial transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drozdov, Alexander; Shprits, Yuri; Aseev, Nikita; Kellerman, Adam; Reeves, Geoffrey

2017-04-01

Radial diffusion is one of the dominant physical mechanisms that drives acceleration and loss of the radiation belt electrons, which makes it very important for nowcasting and forecasting space weather models. We investigate the sensitivity of the two parameterizations of the radial diffusion of Brautigam and Albert [2000] and Ozeke et al. [2014] on long-term radiation belt modeling using the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB). Following Brautigam and Albert [2000] and Ozeke et al. [2014], we first perform 1-D radial diffusion simulations. Comparison of the simulation results with observations shows that the difference between simulations with either radial diffusion parameterization is small. To take into account effects of local acceleration and loss, we perform 3-D simulations, including pitch-angle, energy and mixed diffusion. We found that the results of 3-D simulations are even less sensitive to the choice of parameterization of radial diffusion rates than the results of 1-D simulations at various energies (from 0.59 to 1.80 MeV). This result demonstrates that the inclusion of local acceleration and pitch-angle diffusion can provide a negative feedback effect, such that the result is largely indistinguishable simulations conducted with different radial diffusion parameterizations. We also perform a number of sensitivity tests by multiplying radial diffusion rates by constant factors and show that such an approach leads to unrealistic predictions of radiation belt dynamics. References Brautigam, D. H., and J. M. Albert (2000), Radial diffusion analysis of outer radiation belt electrons during the October 9, 1990, magnetic storm, J. Geophys. Res., 105(A1), 291-309, doi:10.1029/1999ja900344. Ozeke, L. G., I. R. Mann, K. R. Murphy, I. Jonathan Rae, and D. K. Milling (2014), Analytic expressions for ULF wave radiation belt radial diffusion coefficients, J. Geophys. Res. [Space Phys.], 119(3), 1587-1605, doi:10.1002/2013JA019204.

Evaluation of a Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System Over the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolten, J. D.; Crow, W. T.; Zhan, X.; Reynolds, C. A.; Jackson, T. J.

2008-12-01

A data assimilation system has been designed to integrate surface soil moisture estimates from the EOS Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) with an online soil moisture model used by the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service for global crop estimation. USDA's International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) of the Office of Global Analysis (OGA) ingests global soil moisture within a Crop Assessment Data Retrieval and Evaluation (CADRE) Decision Support System (DSS) to provide nowcasts of crop conditions and agricultural-drought. This information is primarily used to derive mid-season crop yield estimates for the improvement of foreign market access for U.S. agricultural products. The CADRE is forced by daily meteorological observations (precipitation and temperature) provided by the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The integration of AMSR-E observations into the two-layer soil moisture model employed by IPAD can potentially enhance the reliability of the CADRE soil moisture estimates due to AMSR-E's improved repeat time and greater spatial coverage. Assimilation of the AMSR-E soil moisture estimates is accomplished using a 1-D Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) at daily time steps. A diagnostic calibration of the filter is performed using innovation statistics by accurately weighting the filter observation and modeling errors for three ranges of vegetation biomass density estimated using historical data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Assessment of the AMSR-E assimilation has been completed for a five year duration over the conterminous United States. To evaluate the ability of the filter to compensate for incorrect precipitation forcing into the model, a data denial approach is employed by comparing soil moisture results obtained from separate model simulations forced with precipitation products of varying uncertainty. An analysis of surface and root-zone anomalies is presented for each model simulation over the conterminous United States, as well as statistical assessments for each simulation over various land cover types.

Satellite-based high-resolution mapping of rainfall over southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Hanna; Drönner, Johannes; Nauss, Thomas

2017-06-01

A spatially explicit mapping of rainfall is necessary for southern Africa for eco-climatological studies or nowcasting but accurate estimates are still a challenging task. This study presents a method to estimate hourly rainfall based on data from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Rainfall measurements from about 350 weather stations from 2010-2014 served as ground truth for calibration and validation. SEVIRI and weather station data were used to train neural networks that allowed the estimation of rainfall area and rainfall quantities over all times of the day. The results revealed that 60 % of recorded rainfall events were correctly classified by the model (probability of detection, POD). However, the false alarm ratio (FAR) was high (0.80), leading to a Heidke skill score (HSS) of 0.18. Estimated hourly rainfall quantities were estimated with an average hourly correlation of ρ = 0. 33 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.72. The correlation increased with temporal aggregation to 0.52 (daily), 0.67 (weekly) and 0.71 (monthly). The main weakness was the overestimation of rainfall events. The model results were compared to the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Despite being a comparably simple approach, the presented MSG-based rainfall retrieval outperformed GPM IMERG in terms of rainfall area detection: GPM IMERG had a considerably lower POD. The HSS was not significantly different compared to the MSG-based retrieval due to a lower FAR of GPM IMERG. There were no further significant differences between the MSG-based retrieval and GPM IMERG in terms of correlation with the observed rainfall quantities. The MSG-based retrieval, however, provides rainfall in a higher spatial resolution. Though estimating rainfall from satellite data remains challenging, especially at high temporal resolutions, this study showed promising results towards improved spatio-temporal estimates of rainfall over southern Africa.

JPL/USC GAIM: Validating COSMIC and Ground-Based GPS Assimilation Results to Estimate Ionospheric Electron Densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komjathy, A.; Wilson, B.; Akopian, V.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A.; Wang, C.

2008-12-01

We seem to be in the midst of a revolution in ionospheric remote sensing driven by the abundance of ground and space-based GPS receivers, new UV remote sensing satellites, and the advent of data assimilation techniques for space weather. In particular, the COSMIC 6-satellite constellation was launched in April 2006. COSMIC now provides unprecedented global coverage of GPS occultations measurements, each of which yields electron density information with unprecedented ~1 km vertical resolution. Calibrated measurements of ionospheric delay (total electron content or TEC) suitable for input into assimilation models is currently made available in near real-time (NRT) from the COSMIC with a latency of 30 to 120 minutes. The University of Southern California (USC) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have jointly developed a real-time Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM) to monitor space weather, study storm effects, and provide ionospheric calibration for DoD customers and NASA flight projects. JPL/USC GAIM is a physics- based 3D data assimilation model that uses both 4DVAR and Kalman filter techniques to solve for the ion and electron density state and key drivers such as equatorial electrodynamics, neutral winds, and production terms. Daily (delayed) GAIM runs can accept as input ground GPS TEC data from 1200+ sites, occultation links from CHAMP, SAC-C, and the COSMIC constellation, UV limb and nadir scans from the TIMED and DMSP satellites, and in situ data from a variety of satellites (DMSP and C/NOFS). Real-Time GAIM (RTGAIM) ingests multiple data sources in real time, updates the 3D electron density grid every 5 minutes, and solves for improved drivers every 1-2 hours. Since our forward physics model and the adjoint model were expressly designed for data assimilation and computational efficiency, all of this can be accomplished on a single dual- processor Unix workstation. Customers are currently evaluating the accuracy of JPL/USC GAIM 'nowcasts' for ray tracing applications and trans-ionospheric path delay calibration. In the presentation, we will discuss the expected impact of NRT COSMIC occultation and NRT ground-based measurements and present validation results for ingest of COSMIC data into GAIM using measurements from World Days. We will quality check our COSMIC-derived products by comparing Abel profiles and JPL- processed results. Furthermore, we will validate GAIM assimilation results using Incoherent Scatter Radar measurements from Arecibo, Jicamarca and Millstone Hill datasets. We will conclude by characterizing the improved electron density states using dual-frequency altimeter-derived Jason vertical TEC measurements.

Objective high Resolution Analysis over Complex Terrain with VERA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, D.; Steinacker, R.; Steiner, A.

2012-04-01

VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) is a model independent, high resolution objective analysis of meteorological fields over complex terrain. This system consists of a special developed quality control procedure and a combination of an interpolation and a downscaling technique. Whereas the so called VERA-QC is presented at this conference in the contribution titled "VERA-QC, an approved Data Quality Control based on Self-Consistency" by Andrea Steiner, this presentation will focus on the method and the characteristics of the VERA interpolation scheme which enables one to compute grid point values of a meteorological field based on irregularly distributed observations and topography related aprior knowledge. Over a complex topography meteorological fields are not smooth in general. The roughness which is induced by the topography can be explained physically. The knowledge about this behavior is used to define the so called Fingerprints (e.g. a thermal Fingerprint reproducing heating or cooling over mountainous terrain or a dynamical Fingerprint reproducing positive pressure perturbation on the windward side of a ridge) under idealized conditions. If the VERA algorithm recognizes patterns of one or more Fingerprints at a few observation points, the corresponding patterns are used to downscale the meteorological information in a greater surrounding. This technique allows to achieve an analysis with a resolution much higher than the one of the observational network. The interpolation of irregularly distributed stations to a regular grid (in space and time) is based on a variational principle applied to first and second order spatial and temporal derivatives. Mathematically, this can be formulated as a cost function that is equivalent to the penalty function of a thin plate smoothing spline. After the analysis field has been divided into the Fingerprint components and the unexplained part respectively, the requirement of a smooth distribution is applied to the latter component only (the Fingerprint field is rough by definition). In order to obtain the final analysis field, the unexplained component has to be combined with the weighted Fingerprint patterns. Operationally, VERA is carried out at our Department on an hourly basis analyzing temperature measurements, pressure, wind and precipitation observations for several domains of the whole world. VERA analyses are used for nowcasting purposes, for establishing climate databases and model verification. Furthermore, VERA can be interesting for everyone who possesses a PC but does not have access to a complex data assimilation system which is in general only available at numerical weather prediction centers.

Spectral matching techniques (SMTs) and automated cropland classification algorithms (ACCAs) for mapping croplands of Australia using MODIS 250-m time-series (2000–2015) data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Teluguntla, Pardhasaradhi G.; Thenkabail, Prasad S.; Xiong, Jun N.; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Congalton, Russell G.; Oliphant, Adam; Poehnelt, Justin; Yadav, Kamini; Rao, Mahesh N.; Massey, Richard

2017-01-01

Mapping croplands, including fallow areas, are an important measure to determine the quantity of food that is produced, where they are produced, and when they are produced (e.g. seasonality). Furthermore, croplands are known as water guzzlers by consuming anywhere between 70% and 90% of all human water use globally. Given these facts and the increase in global population to nearly 10 billion by the year 2050, the need for routine, rapid, and automated cropland mapping year-after-year and/or season-after-season is of great importance. The overarching goal of this study was to generate standard and routine cropland products, year-after-year, over very large areas through the use of two novel methods: (a) quantitative spectral matching techniques (QSMTs) applied at continental level and (b) rule-based Automated Cropland Classification Algorithm (ACCA) with the ability to hind-cast, now-cast, and future-cast. Australia was chosen for the study given its extensive croplands, rich history of agriculture, and yet nonexistent routine yearly generated cropland products using multi-temporal remote sensing. This research produced three distinct cropland products using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-m normalized difference vegetation index 16-day composite time-series data for 16 years: 2000 through 2015. The products consisted of: (1) cropland extent/areas versus cropland fallow areas, (2) irrigated versus rainfed croplands, and (3) cropping intensities: single, double, and continuous cropping. An accurate reference cropland product (RCP) for the year 2014 (RCP2014) produced using QSMT was used as a knowledge base to train and develop the ACCA algorithm that was then applied to the MODIS time-series data for the years 2000–2015. A comparison between the ACCA-derived cropland products (ACPs) for the year 2014 (ACP2014) versus RCP2014 provided an overall agreement of 89.4% (kappa = 0.814) with six classes: (a) producer’s accuracies varying between 72% and 90% and (b) user’s accuracies varying between 79% and 90%. ACPs for the individual years 2000–2013 and 2015 (ACP2000–ACP2013, ACP2015) showed very strong similarities with several other studies. The extent and vigor of the Australian croplands versus cropland fallows were accurately captured by the ACCA algorithm for the years 2000–2015, thus highlighting the value of the study in food security analysis. The ACCA algorithm and the cropland products are released through http://croplands.org/app/map and http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/science/croplands/algorithms/australia_250m.html

Creating a comprehensive quality-controlled dataset of severe weather occurrence in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groenemeijer, P.; Kühne, T.; Liang, Z.; Holzer, A.; Feuerstein, B.; Dotzek, N.

2010-09-01

Ground-truth quality-controlled data on severe weather occurrence is required for meaningful research on severe weather hazards. Such data are collected by observation networks of several authorities in Europe, most prominently the National Hydrometeorological Institutes (NHMS). However, some events challenge the capabilities of such conventional networks by their isolated and short-lived nature. These rare and very localized but extreme events include thunderstorm wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes and are poorly resolved by synoptic observations. Moreover, their detection by remote-sensing techniques such as radar and satellites is in development and has proven to be difficult. Using the fact that all across across Europe there are many people with a special personal or professional interest in such events, who are typically organized in associations, allows pursuing a different strategy. Data delivered to the European Severe Weather Database is recorded and quality controlled by ESSL and a large number of partners including the Hydrometeorological Institutes of Germany, Finland, Austria, Italy and Bulgaria. Additionally, nine associations of storm spotters and centres of expertise in these and other countries are involved. The two categories of organizations (NHMSes/other) each have different privileges in the quality control procedure, which involves assigning a quality level of QC0+ (plausibility checked), QC1 (confirmed by reliable sources) or QC2 (verified) to each of the reports. Within the EWENT project funded by the EU 7th framework programme, the RegioExakt project funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research, and with support from the German Weather Service (DWD), several enhancements of the ESWD have been and will be carried out. Completed enhancements include the creation of an interface that allows partner organizations to upload data automatically, in the case of our German partner "Skywarn Germany" in near-real time. Moreover, the database's web-interface has been translated into 14 European languages. At the time of writing, a nowcast-mode to the web interface, which renders the ESWD a convenient tool for meteorologists in forecast centres, is being developed. In the near future, within the EWENT project, an extension of the data set with several other isolated but extreme events including avalanches, landslides, heavy snowfall and extremely powerful lightning flashes, is foreseen. The resulting ESWD dataset, that grows at a rate of 4000-5000 events per year, is used for wide range of purposes including the validation of remote-sensing techniques, forecast verification studies, projections of the future severe storm climate, and risk assessments. Its users include scientists working for EUMETSAT, NASA, NSSL, DLR, and several reinsurance companies.

Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media

DOE PAGES

Volkova, Svitlana; Ayton, Ellyn; Porterfield, Katherine; ...

2017-12-15

This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like-illness (ILI) dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data [1, 2] and the state-of-the-art machine learning models [3, 4], we build and evaluate the predictive power of Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs) architectures capable of nowcasting (predicting in \\real-time") and forecasting (predicting the future) ILI dynamics in the 2011 { 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, stylistic and syntactic patterns,more » emotions and opinions, and communication behavior. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build joint neural network models for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance [1], specifically for military rather than general populations [3] in 26 U.S. and six international locations. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a) Neural network models learned from social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b) Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than syntactic and stylistic signals expressed in social media. (c) Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus, signals from social media can be potentially used to accurately forecast ILI dynamics for the regions where ILI historical data is not available. (d) Neural network models learned from combined ILI and social media signals significantly outperform models that rely solely on ILI historical data, which adds to a great potential of alternative public sources for ILI dynamics prediction. (e) Location-specific models outperform previously used location-independent models e.g., U.S. only. (f) Prediction results significantly vary across geolocations depending on the amount of social media data available and ILI activity patterns.« less

Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Volkova, Svitlana; Ayton, Ellyn; Porterfield, Katherine

This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like-illness (ILI) dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data [1, 2] and the state-of-the-art machine learning models [3, 4], we build and evaluate the predictive power of Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs) architectures capable of nowcasting (predicting in \\real-time") and forecasting (predicting the future) ILI dynamics in the 2011 { 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, stylistic and syntactic patterns,more » emotions and opinions, and communication behavior. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build joint neural network models for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance [1], specifically for military rather than general populations [3] in 26 U.S. and six international locations. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a) Neural network models learned from social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b) Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than syntactic and stylistic signals expressed in social media. (c) Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus, signals from social media can be potentially used to accurately forecast ILI dynamics for the regions where ILI historical data is not available. (d) Neural network models learned from combined ILI and social media signals significantly outperform models that rely solely on ILI historical data, which adds to a great potential of alternative public sources for ILI dynamics prediction. (e) Location-specific models outperform previously used location-independent models e.g., U.S. only. (f) Prediction results significantly vary across geolocations depending on the amount of social media data available and ILI activity patterns.« less

Microbial Burden Approach : New Monitoring Approach for Measuring Microbial Burden

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Venkateswaran, Kasthuri; Vaishampayan, Parag; Barmatz, Martin

2013-01-01

Advantages of new approach for differentiating live cells/ spores from dead cells/spores. Four examples of Salmonella outbreaks leading to costly destruction of dairy products. List of possible collaboration activities between JPL and other industries (for future discussion). Limitations of traditional microbial monitoring approaches. Introduction to new approach for rapid measurement of viable (live) bacterial cells/spores and its areas of application. Detailed example for determining live spores using new approach (similar procedure for determining live cells). JPL has developed a patented approach for measuring amount of live and dead cells/spores. This novel "molecular" method takes less than 5 to 7 hrs. compared to the seven days required using conventional techniques. Conventional "molecular" techniques can not discriminate live cells/spores among dead cells/spores. The JPL-developed novel method eliminates false positive results obtained from conventional "molecular" techniques that lead to unnecessary delay in the processing and to unnecessary destruction of food products.

Robotic and endoscopic transoral thyroidectomy: feasibility and description of the technique in the cadaveric model

PubMed Central

Kahramangil, Bora; Mohsin, Khuzema; Alzahrani, Hassan; Bu Ali, Daniah; Tausif, Syed; Kang, Sang-Wook; Kandil, Emad

2017-01-01

Background Numerous new approaches have been described over the years to improve the cosmetic outcomes of thyroid surgery. Transoral approach is a new technique that aims to achieve superior cosmetic outcomes by concealing the incision in the oral cavity. Methods Transoral thyroidectomy through vestibular approach was performed in two institutions on cadaveric models. Procedure was performed endoscopically in one institution, while the robotic technique was utilized at the other. Results Transoral thyroidectomy was successfully performed at both institutions with robotic and endoscopic techniques. All vital structures were identified and preserved. Conclusions Transoral thyroidectomy has been performed in animal and cadaveric models, as well as in some clinical studies. Our initial experience indicates the feasibility of this approach. More clinical studies are required to elucidate its full utility. PMID:29302476

INNOVATIVE APPROACH FOR MEASURING AMMONIA AND METHANE FLUXES FROM A HOG FARM USING OPEN-PATH FOURIER TRANSFORM INFRARED SPECTROSCOPY

EPA Science Inventory

The paper describes a new approach to quantify emissions from area air pollution sources. The approach combines path-integrated concentration data acquired with any path-integrated optical remote sensing (PI-ORS) technique and computed tomography (CT) technique. In this study, an...

Refinements in pectus carinatum correction: the pectoralis muscle split technique.

PubMed

Schwabegger, Anton H; Jeschke, Johannes; Schuetz, Tanja; Del Frari, Barbara

2008-04-01

The standard approach for correction of pectus carinatum deformity includes elevation of the pectoralis major and rectus abdominis muscle from the sternum and adjacent ribs. A postoperative restriction of shoulder activity for several weeks is necessary to allow stable healing of the elevated muscles. To reduce postoperative immobilization, we present a modified approach to the parasternal ribs using a pectoralis muscle split technique. At each level of rib cartilage resection, the pectoralis muscle is split along the direction of its fibers instead of elevating the entire muscle as performed with the standard technique. From July 2000 to May 2007, we successfully used this technique in 33 patients with pectus carinatum deformity. After the muscle split approach, patients returned to full unrestricted shoulder activity as early as 3 weeks postoperatively, compared to 6 weeks in patients treated with muscle flap elevation. Postoperative pain was reduced and the patients were discharged earlier from the hospital than following the conventional approach. The muscle split technique is a modified surgical approach to the parasternal ribs in patients with pectus carinatum deformity. It helps to maintain pectoralis muscle vascularization and function and can reduce postoperative pain, hospitalization, and rehabilitation period.

The Impact of Teaching the Subjects under "Science in Time" Unit in the Social Studies Class in the 7th Grade Using Jigsaw Technique on the Academic Success of the Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Er, Harun

2017-01-01

The main point in today's educational approach is that it is based on a student-centered approach. One of the alternative instruction techniques having a convenient content for this system is the jigsaw technique. Since the introduction of this technique, it has been applied into many different fields of education, and determined that it…

Technique of after-loading interstitial implants.

PubMed

Syed, A M; Feder, B H

1977-01-01

Interstitial implants are either removable or permanent (and occasionally a combination of both). Permanent implants are generally utilized where tumors are not accessible enough to permit easy removal of sources or where accurate source distribution is less critical. They are useful for cancers of the lung, pancreas, prostate, bladder, lymph nodes, etc. Radon and gold-198 have been largely replaced by iodine-125. Our major interests are in the removable after-loading iridium-192 implant techniques. Template (steel guide) and non-template (plastic tube) techniques are utilized. Templates are preferred where the tumor volume can only be approached from one side and where accurate positioning of sources would otherwise be difficult. They are useful for cancers of the cervix, vagina, urethra, and rectum. Non-template (plastic tube) techniques are preferred where the tumor volume can be approached from at least two sides and where templates are either not feasible or not essential for accurate positioning of sources. The single needle non-template approach is useful for cancers of lip, nodes, and breast (plastic button) and for cancers of the oral cavity and oropharynx (gold button). The paired needle non-template approach is useful for cancers of the gum, retromolar trigone, and base of tongue (loop technique) and for cancers of the palate (arch technique). Procedures for each technique are described in detail.

Integrated Artificial Intelligence Approaches for Disease Diagnostics.

PubMed

Vashistha, Rajat; Chhabra, Deepak; Shukla, Pratyoosh

2018-06-01

Mechanocomputational techniques in conjunction with artificial intelligence (AI) are revolutionizing the interpretations of the crucial information from the medical data and converting it into optimized and organized information for diagnostics. It is possible due to valuable perfection in artificial intelligence, computer aided diagnostics, virtual assistant, robotic surgery, augmented reality and genome editing (based on AI) technologies. Such techniques are serving as the products for diagnosing emerging microbial or non microbial diseases. This article represents a combinatory approach of using such approaches and providing therapeutic solutions towards utilizing these techniques in disease diagnostics.

Strain expansion-reduction approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baqersad, Javad; Bharadwaj, Kedar

2018-02-01

Validating numerical models are one of the main aspects of engineering design. However, correlating million degrees of freedom of numerical models to the few degrees of freedom of test models is challenging. Reduction/expansion approaches have been traditionally used to match these degrees of freedom. However, the conventional reduction/expansion approaches are only limited to displacement, velocity or acceleration data. While in many cases only strain data are accessible (e.g. when a structure is monitored using strain-gages), the conventional approaches are not capable of expanding strain data. To bridge this gap, the current paper outlines a reduction/expansion technique to reduce/expand strain data. In the proposed approach, strain mode shapes of a structure are extracted using the finite element method or the digital image correlation technique. The strain mode shapes are used to generate a transformation matrix that can expand the limited set of measurement data. The proposed approach can be used to correlate experimental and analytical strain data. Furthermore, the proposed technique can be used to expand real-time operating data for structural health monitoring (SHM). In order to verify the accuracy of the approach, the proposed technique was used to expand the limited set of real-time operating data in a numerical model of a cantilever beam subjected to various types of excitations. The proposed technique was also applied to expand real-time operating data measured using a few strain gages mounted to an aluminum beam. It was shown that the proposed approach can effectively expand the strain data at limited locations to accurately predict the strain at locations where no sensors were placed.

Chemical Synthesis Coxiella Burnetti Lipopolysaccharides: Structural Studies of Coxiella Burnetti Lipopolysaccharides.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-11-30

currently evaluating two instrumental techniques which seem highly appropriate to this LPS project, supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC) and...NEW INSTRUMENTAL TECHNIQUES AND METHODS OF APPROACH 1. Supercritical Fluid Chromatography (SFC) ............... 6. 2. SFC and Mass Spectrometry...details are discussed below in the appropriate sections. B. NEW INSTRUMENTAL TECHNIQUES AND METHODS OF APPROACH 1. Supercritical Fluid Chromatography (SFC

CAHOST: An Excel Workbook for Facilitating the Johnson-Neyman Technique for Two-Way Interactions in Multiple Regression.

PubMed

Carden, Stephen W; Holtzman, Nicholas S; Strube, Michael J

2017-01-01

When using multiple regression, researchers frequently wish to explore how the relationship between two variables is moderated by another variable; this is termed an interaction. Historically, two approaches have been used to probe interactions: the pick-a-point approach and the Johnson-Neyman (JN) technique. The pick-a-point approach has limitations that can be avoided using the JN technique. Currently, the software available for implementing the JN technique and creating corresponding figures lacks several desirable features-most notably, ease of use and figure quality. To fill this gap in the literature, we offer a free Microsoft Excel 2013 workbook, CAHOST (a concatenation of the first two letters of the authors' last names), that allows the user to seamlessly create publication-ready figures of the results of the JN technique.

Novel Variants of a Histogram Shift-Based Reversible Watermarking Technique for Medical Images to Improve Hiding Capacity

PubMed Central

Tuckley, Kushal

2017-01-01

In telemedicine systems, critical medical data is shared on a public communication channel. This increases the risk of unauthorised access to patient's information. This underlines the importance of secrecy and authentication for the medical data. This paper presents two innovative variations of classical histogram shift methods to increase the hiding capacity. The first technique divides the image into nonoverlapping blocks and embeds the watermark individually using the histogram method. The second method separates the region of interest and embeds the watermark only in the region of noninterest. This approach preserves the medical information intact. This method finds its use in critical medical cases. The high PSNR (above 45 dB) obtained for both techniques indicates imperceptibility of the approaches. Experimental results illustrate superiority of the proposed approaches when compared with other methods based on histogram shifting techniques. These techniques improve embedding capacity by 5–15% depending on the image type, without affecting the quality of the watermarked image. Both techniques also enable lossless reconstruction of the watermark and the host medical image. A higher embedding capacity makes the proposed approaches attractive for medical image watermarking applications without compromising the quality of the image. PMID:29104744

Semiextended approach for intramedullary nailing via a patellar eversion technique for tibial-shaft fractures: Evaluation of the patellofemoral joint.

PubMed

Yasuda, Tomohiro; Obara, Shu; Hayashi, Junji; Arai, Masayuki; Sato, Kaoru

2017-06-01

Intramedullary nail fixation is a common treatment for tibial-shaft fractures, and it offers a better functional prognosis than other conservative treatments. Currently, the primary approach employed during intramedullary nail insertion is the semiextended position is the suprapatellar approach, which involves a vertical incision of the quadriceps tendon Damage to the patellofemoral joint cartilage has been highlighted as a drawback associated with this approach. To avoid this issue, we perform surgery using the patellar eversion technique and a soft sleeve. This method allows the articular surface to be monitored during intramedullary nail insertion. We arthroscopically assessed the effect of this technique on patellofemoral joint cartilage. The patellar eversion technique allows a direct view and protection of the patellofemoral joint without affecting the patella. Thus, damage to the patellofemoral joint cartilage can be avoided. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New laparoscopic procedure for left-sided pancreatic cancer-artery-first approach laparoscopic RAMPS using 3D technique.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Michihiro; Zaima, Masazumi; Yamamoto, Hidekazu; Harada, Hideki; Kawamura, Junichiro; Yamada, Masahiro; Yazawa, Tekefumi; Kawasoe, Junya

2017-12-02

For left-sided pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) is a reasonable surgical approach for tumor-free margin resection and systemic lymph node clearance. In pancreaticoduodenectomy for PDAC, the superior mesenteric artery (SMA)-first approach (or the "artery-first approach") has become the standard procedure. With improvements in laparoscopic instruments and techniques, some surgeons attempted to apply laparoscopic RAMPS (L-RAMPS) for carefully selected patients with left-sided PDAC. However, owing to several technical difficulties in this procedure, its application remains uncommon. Moreover, the artery-first approach in L-RAMPS has not been reported. Here, we developed the artery-first approach L-RAMPS for left-sided PDAC and have presented the same in this report. Between June 2014 and July 2015, 16 patients with left-sided PDAC were referred to our division for pancreatic resection. The following technique was used for performing L-RAMPS on 3 of the 16 patients (19%). Six trocars were placed. After opening the omental bursa, only the middle segment of the pancreas was initially separated from both the left renal vein and the SMA. We termed this procedure as the "artery-first approach using a dome-shaped dorsomedial dissection (3D) technique." This 3D technique enabled the interruption of the entire arterial supply to the specimen while preserving the venous drainage through the splenic vein for preventing venous congestion. The technique also contributed to the early detection of no tumor infiltration into the SMA and the early determination of posterior dissection plane. After pancreatic neck transection, the splenic artery and vein were divided. Finally, the pancreatic tail and spleen were dissected in a right-to-left direction. All operations were completed without any intraoperative complications. The median blood loss and retrieved lymph node count were 75 mL and 37, respectively, which were superior to those reported by other previous studies on L-RAMPS. All resection margins were free of carcinoma. No severe postoperative complications were observed. The artery-first approach L-RAMPS using 3D technique is safe and feasible to perform. The significance of our proposed procedure is minimal blood loss and precise lymphadenectomy. Therefore, this novel technique may become the preferred treatment for left-sided PDAC in selected cases.

A top-down approach in control engineering third-level teaching: The case of hydrogen-generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, Eko; Habibi, M. Afnan; Fall, Cheikh; Hodaka, Ichijo

2017-09-01

This paper presents a top-down approach in control engineering third-level teaching. The paper shows the control engineering solution for the issue of practical implementation in order to motivate students. The proposed strategy only focuses on one technique of control engineering to lead student correctly. The proposed teaching steps are 1) defining the problem, 2) listing of acquired knowledge or required skill, 3) selecting of one control engineering technique, 4) arrangement the order of teaching: problem introduction, implementation of control engineering technique, explanation of system block diagram, model derivation, controller design, and 5) enrichment knowledge by the other control techniques. The approach presented highlights hardware implementation and the use of software simulation as a self-learning tool for students.

A multiple technique approach to the analysis of urinary calculi.

PubMed

Rodgers, A L; Nassimbeni, L R; Mulder, K J

1982-01-01

10 urinary calculi have been qualitatively and quantitatively analysed using X-ray diffraction, infra-red, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray fluorescence, atomic absorption and density gradient procedures. Constituents and compositional features which often go undetected due to limitations in the particular analytical procedure being used, have been identified and a detailed picture of each stone's composition and structure has been obtained. In all cases at least two components were detected suggesting that the multiple technique approach might cast some doubt as to the existence of "pure" stones. Evidence for a continuous, non-sequential deposition mechanism has been detected. In addition, the usefulness of each technique in the analysis of urinary stones has been assessed and the multiple technique approach has been evaluated as a whole.

Application of Bayesian Approach in Cancer Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Bhattacharjee, Atanu

2014-01-01

The application of Bayesian approach in clinical trials becomes more useful over classical method. It is beneficial from design to analysis phase. The straight forward statement is possible to obtain through Bayesian about the drug treatment effect. Complex computational problems are simple to handle with Bayesian techniques. The technique is only feasible to performing presence of prior information of the data. The inference is possible to establish through posterior estimates. However, some limitations are present in this method. The objective of this work was to explore the several merits and demerits of Bayesian approach in cancer research. The review of the technique will be helpful for the clinical researcher involved in the oncology to explore the limitation and power of Bayesian techniques. PMID:29147387

Comparison of remote sensing image processing techniques to identify tornado damage areas from Landsat TM data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myint, S.W.; Yuan, M.; Cerveny, R.S.; Giri, C.P.

2008-01-01

Remote sensing techniques have been shown effective for large-scale damage surveys after a hazardous event in both near real-time or post-event analyses. The paper aims to compare accuracy of common imaging processing techniques to detect tornado damage tracks from Landsat TM data. We employed the direct change detection approach using two sets of images acquired before and after the tornado event to produce a principal component composite images and a set of image difference bands. Techniques in the comparison include supervised classification, unsupervised classification, and objectoriented classification approach with a nearest neighbor classifier. Accuracy assessment is based on Kappa coefficient calculated from error matrices which cross tabulate correctly identified cells on the TM image and commission and omission errors in the result. Overall, the Object-oriented Approach exhibits the highest degree of accuracy in tornado damage detection. PCA and Image Differencing methods show comparable outcomes. While selected PCs can improve detection accuracy 5 to 10%, the Object-oriented Approach performs significantly better with 15-20% higher accuracy than the other two techniques. ?? 2008 by MDPI.

Comparison of Remote Sensing Image Processing Techniques to Identify Tornado Damage Areas from Landsat TM Data

PubMed Central

Myint, Soe W.; Yuan, May; Cerveny, Randall S.; Giri, Chandra P.

2008-01-01

Remote sensing techniques have been shown effective for large-scale damage surveys after a hazardous event in both near real-time or post-event analyses. The paper aims to compare accuracy of common imaging processing techniques to detect tornado damage tracks from Landsat TM data. We employed the direct change detection approach using two sets of images acquired before and after the tornado event to produce a principal component composite images and a set of image difference bands. Techniques in the comparison include supervised classification, unsupervised classification, and object-oriented classification approach with a nearest neighbor classifier. Accuracy assessment is based on Kappa coefficient calculated from error matrices which cross tabulate correctly identified cells on the TM image and commission and omission errors in the result. Overall, the Object-oriented Approach exhibits the highest degree of accuracy in tornado damage detection. PCA and Image Differencing methods show comparable outcomes. While selected PCs can improve detection accuracy 5 to 10%, the Object-oriented Approach performs significantly better with 15-20% higher accuracy than the other two techniques. PMID:27879757

The Scharff-technique: eliciting intelligence from human sources.

PubMed

Oleszkiewicz, Simon; Granhag, Pär Anders; Montecinos, Sebastian Cancino

2014-10-01

This study is on how to elicit intelligence from human sources. We compared the efficacy of two human intelligence gathering techniques: the Scharff-technique (conceptualized as four different tactics) and the Direct Approach (a combination of open and direct questions). Participants (N = 60) were asked to take on the role of "sources" and were given information about a planned terrorist attack. They were to reveal part of this information in an upcoming interview. Critically, the participants were instructed to strike a balance between not revealing too much or too little information. As predicted, the participants revealed significantly more, and more precise, new information when interviewed with the Scharff-technique (vs. the Direct Approach). Furthermore, and as predicted, the participants in the Scharff condition underestimated how much new information they revealed whereas the participants in the Direct Approach overestimated how much new information they revealed. The study provides rather strong support for the Scharff-technique as an effective human intelligence gathering technique. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Using the Same Problem with Different Techniques in Programming Assignments: An Empirical Study of Its Effectiveness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newby, Michael; Nguyen, ThuyUyen H.

2010-01-01

This paper examines the effectiveness of a technique that first appeared as a Teaching Tip in the Journal of Information Systems Education. In this approach the same problem is used in every programming assignment within a course, but the students are required to use different programming techniques. This approach was used in an intermediate C++…

LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koller, Josep; Reeves, Geoffrey D; Friedel, Reiner H W

2008-01-01

Space weather modeling, forecasts, and predictions, especially for the radiation belts in the inner magnetosphere, require detailed information about the Earth's magnetic field. Results depend on the magnetic field model and the L* (pron. L-star) values which are used to describe particle drift shells. Space wather models require integrating particle motions along trajectories that encircle the Earth. Numerical integration typically takes on the order of 10{sup 5} calls to a magnetic field model which makes the L* calculations very slow, in particular when using a dynamic and more accurate magnetic field model. Researchers currently tend to pick simplistic models overmore » more accurate ones but also risking large inaccuracies and even wrong conclusions. For example, magnetic field models affect the calculation of electron phase space density by applying adiabatic invariants including the drift shell value L*. We present here a new method using a surrogate model based on a neural network technique to replace the time consuming L* calculations made with modern magnetic field models. The advantage of surrogate models (or meta-models) is that they can compute the same output in a fraction of the time while adding only a marginal error. Our drift shell model LANL* (Los Alamos National Lab L-star) is based on L* calculation using the TSK03 model. The surrogate model has currently been tested and validated only for geosynchronous regions but the method is generally applicable to any satellite orbit. Computations with the new model are several million times faster compared to the standard integration method while adding less than 1% error. Currently, real-time applications for forecasting and even nowcasting inner magnetospheric space weather is limited partly due to the long computing time of accurate L* values. Without them, real-time applications are limited in accuracy. Reanalysis application of past conditions in the inner magnetosphere are used to understand physical processes and their effect. Without sufficiently accurate L* values, the interpretation of reanalysis results becomes difficult and uncertain. However, with a method that can calculate accurate L* values orders of magnitude faster, analyzing whole solar cycles worth of data suddenly becomes feasible.« less

Time to Talk: 5 Things to Know about Sleep Disorders and Complementary Health Approaches

MedlinePlus

... health approaches. Relaxation techniques may be helpful for insomnia. Evidence indicates that using relaxation techniques before bedtime ... supplements may be helpful for some people with insomnia or sleep problems caused by shift work or ...

Hierarchical classification in high dimensional numerous class cases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Byungyong; Landgrebe, D. A.

1990-01-01

As progress in new sensor technology continues, increasingly high resolution imaging sensors are being developed. These sensors give more detailed and complex data for each picture element and greatly increase the dimensionality of data over past systems. Three methods for designing a decision tree classifier are discussed: a top down approach, a bottom up approach, and a hybrid approach. Three feature extraction techniques are implemented. Canonical and extended canonical techniques are mainly dependent upon the mean difference between two classes. An autocorrelation technique is dependent upon the correlation differences. The mathematical relationship between sample size, dimensionality, and risk value is derived.

Endoscopic endonasal skull base surgery: advantages, limitations, and our techniques to overcome cerebrospinal fluid leakage: technical note.

PubMed

Ishii, Yudo; Tahara, Shigeyuki; Teramoto, Akira; Morita, Akio

2014-01-01

In recent years, resections of midline skull base tumors have been conducted using endoscopic endonasal skull base (EESB) approaches. Nevertheless, many surgeons reported that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage is still a major complication of these approaches. Here, we report the results of our 42 EESB surgeries and discuss the advantages and limits of this approach for resecting various types of tumors, and also report our technique to overcome CSF leakage. All 42 cases involved midline skull base tumors resected using the EESB technique. Dural incisions were closed using nasoseptal flaps and fascia patch inlay sutures. Total removal of the tumor was accomplished in seven pituitary adenomas (33.3%), five craniopharyngiomas (62.5%), five tuberculum sellae meningiomas (83.3%), three clival chordomas (100%), and one suprasellar ependymoma. Residual regions included the cavernous sinus, the outside of the intracranial part of the internal carotid artery, the lower lateral part of the posterior clivus, and the posterior pituitary stalk. Overall incidence of CSF leakage was 7.1%. Even though the versatility of the approach is limited, EESB surgery has many advantages compared to the transcranial approach for managing mid-line skull base lesions. To avoid CSF leakage, surgeons should have skills and techniques for complete closure, including use of the nasoseptal flap and fascia patch inlay techniques.

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Improving NOAA's Tides and Currents Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guest, DeNeice C.

2006-01-01

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including hydrography, nautical charting, maritime navigation, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings (NOAA, 2002; Digby et al., 1999). Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years (NOAA, 2006). NOAA s Tides & Currents DST (decision support tool, managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, is the portal to a vast collection of oceanographic and meteorological data (historical and real-time), predictions, and nowcasts and forecasts. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s Tides & Currents.

Forecasting the ocean optical environment in support of Navy mine warfare operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladner, S. D.; Arnone, R.; Jolliff, J.; Casey, B.; Matulewski, K.

2012-06-01

A 3D ocean optical forecast system called TODS (Tactical Ocean Data System) has been developed to determine the performance of underwater LIDAR detection/identification systems. TODS fuses optical measurements from gliders, surface satellite optical properties, and 3D ocean forecast circulation models to extend the 2-dimensional surface satellite optics into a 3-dimensional optical volume including subsurface optical layers of beam attenuation coefficient (c) and diver visibility. Optical 3D nowcast and forecasts are combined with electro-optical identification (EOID) models to determine the underwater LIDAR imaging performance field used to identify subsurface mine threats in rapidly changing coastal regions. TODS was validated during a recent mine warfare exercise with Helicopter Mine Countermeasures Squadron (HM-14). Results include the uncertainties in the optical forecast and lidar performance and sensor tow height predictions that are based on visual detection and identification metrics using actual mine target images from the EOID system. TODS is a new capability of coupling the 3D optical environment and EOID system performance and is proving important for the MIW community as both a tactical decision aid and for use in operational planning, improving timeliness and efficiency in clearance operations.

Monitoring Volcanic Ash with MSG Seviri Image and RGB Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erturk, Aydin Gurol; Kerkman, Jochen

2011-01-01

The eruption from the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano, Iceland recently became a high importance for the Meteorological Institutes, Aviation, Satellite Centers and other related institutions. Urgent forecasts were requested by the air control centers, aviation industry and even the passengers who stuck at the airports. It was announced that thousands of flights are canceled; hundreds of thousands of passengers affected and the airlines lost around 1.7 billion dollars in April-May 2010. This is the worst aviation crises. MSG (METEOSAT Second Generation) SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imagery) with its 11 narrow and 1 broad band channels have been providing a worth of data sources for nowcasting and very short forecasting. SEVIRI images and RGB applications have been acted an important role to monitor Volcanic Ash during above aviation crises. SEVIRI has an infrared channel (centered @8.7 micron) which is sensitive sand, dust and ash in the atmosphere. In this study we present Ash RGB applications derived from SEVIRI data to monitor and track Ash clouds over Europe. Two main eruptions during 14-20 April and 7-17 May 2010 will be demonstrated. In addition to this, we will propose an Ash product algorithm and discuss its weakness and strength.

Development and Applications of the GOES Sounder Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Menzel, W. P.; Li, Z.; Wade, G.; Schmit, T. J.; Li, J. L.; Aune, R.; Schreiner, A. J.; Schmidt, C. C.; Genkova, I.

Since 1994 a new generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOES Sounders GOES-8 9 10 11 12 has been measuring radiances in 18 infrared spectral bands ranging from approximately 3 7um - 14 7 um This data has been used to provide atmospheric sounding and cloud products for meteorological applications on an hourly basis over North America and adjacent oceanic regions The products include atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles total precipitable water cloud-top pressure water-vapor tracked winds etc Products are generated operationally by NOAA NESDIS in Washington D C Some Sounder products including total column ozone are also produced at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Applications of those products include nowcasting and forecasting of weather events assimilation of cloud products into regional numerical forecast models and monitoring of temperature and moisture changes during active convective periods The impact of GOES Sounder products on numerical model forecasts will be demonstrated Furthermore recent improvements to several of the products have been made by taking into account the GOES Sounder temporal and spatial information within the processing algorithms These improvements and implications thereof will be presented and discussed

A reduced order, test verified component mode synthesis approach for system modeling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butland, Adam; Avitabile, Peter

2010-05-01

Component mode synthesis (CMS) is a very common approach used for the generation of large system models. In general, these modeling techniques can be separated into two categories: those utilizing a combination of constraint modes and fixed interface normal modes and those based on a combination of free interface normal modes and residual flexibility terms. The major limitation of the methods utilizing constraint modes and fixed interface normal modes is the inability to easily obtain the required information from testing; the result of this limitation is that constraint mode-based techniques are primarily used with numerical models. An alternate approach is proposed which utilizes frequency and shape information acquired from modal testing to update reduced order finite element models using exact analytical model improvement techniques. The connection degrees of freedom are then rigidly constrained in the test verified, reduced order model to provide the boundary conditions necessary for constraint modes and fixed interface normal modes. The CMS approach is then used with this test verified, reduced order model to generate the system model for further analysis. A laboratory structure is used to show the application of the technique with both numerical and simulated experimental components to describe the system and validate the proposed approach. Actual test data is then used in the approach proposed. Due to typical measurement data contaminants that are always included in any test, the measured data is further processed to remove contaminants and is then used in the proposed approach. The final case using improved data with the reduced order, test verified components is shown to produce very acceptable results from the Craig-Bampton component mode synthesis approach. Use of the technique with its strengths and weaknesses are discussed.

Two- versus four-handed techniques for endonasal resection of orbital apex tumors.

PubMed

Craig, John R; Lee, John Y K; Petrov, Dmitriy; Mehta, Sonul; Palmer, James N; Adappa, Nithin D

2015-01-01

Open versus endonasal resection of orbital apex (OA) tumors is generally based on tumor size, location, and pathology. For endonasal resection, two- and four-handed techniques have been reported, but whether one technique is more optimal based on these tumor features has not been evaluated. To determine whether two- versus four-handed techniques result in better outcomes after endoscopic resection of OA tumors, and whether either technique is better suited for intra- versus extraconal location and for benign versus malignant pathology. A retrospective review of all expanded endonasal approaches for OA tumors was performed at a single institution from 2009 to 2013. A PubMed database search was also performed to review series published on endonasal OA tumor resection. Across all the cases reviewed, the following data were recorded: two- versus four-handed techniques, intra- versus extraconal tumor location, and benign versus malignant pathology. The relationship between these variables and resection extent was analyzed by the Fisher exact test. Postoperative visual status and complications were also reviewed. Ten cases from the institution and 94 cases from 17 publications were reviewed. Both two- and four-handed techniques were used to resect extra- and intraconal OA tumors, for both benign and malignant pathology. Four-handed techniques included a purely endonasal approach and a combined endonasal-orbital approach. On univariate analysis, the strongest predictor of complete resection was benign pathology (p = 0.005). No significant difference was found between the extent of resection and a two- versus a four-handed technique. Visual status was improved or unchanged in 94% of cases, and other complications were rare. Benign tumors that involve the medial extraconal and posterior inferomedial intraconal OA can be treated by either two- or four-handed endonasal techniques. Selecting two- versus four-handed techniques and endonasal versus endonasal-orbital four-handed techniques depends mainly on surgeons' experience. Endonasal approaches for malignant OA tumors are less likely to result in complete resection.

Effect of Active Learning Techniques on Students' Choice of Approach to Learning in Dentistry: A South African Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khan, S.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to report on empirical work, related to a techniques module, undertaken with the dental students of the University of the Western Cape, South Africa. I will relate how a range of different active learning techniques (tutorials; question papers and mock tests) assisted students to adopt a deep approach to learning in…

Strategy Formulation in Small Enterprises: A Developmental Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paton, Robert; Brownlie, Douglas

1991-01-01

The Small Company European Analysis Technique is a diagnostic tool that small businesses can use to analyze market opportunities in preparation for 1992. The approach uses small group consensus building as in the Delphi technique and brainstorming to formulate a strategic plan. (SK)

Estimating the cost of major ongoing cost plus hardware development programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bush, J. C.

1990-01-01

Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary cost estimation, a detailed cost estimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.

The integrated manual and automatic control of complex flight systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, D. K.

1985-01-01

Pilot/vehicle analysis techniques for optimizing aircraft handling qualities are presented. The analysis approach considered is based on the optimal control frequency domain techniques. These techniques stem from an optimal control approach of a Neal-Smith like analysis on aircraft attitude dynamics extended to analyze the flared landing task. Some modifications to the technique are suggested and discussed. An in depth analysis of the effect of the experimental variables, such as prefilter, is conducted to gain further insight into the flared land task for this class of vehicle dynamics.

A New Multi-Agent Approach to Adaptive E-Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jing; Cheng, Peng

Improving customer satisfaction degree is important in e-Education. This paper describes a new approach to adaptive e-Education taking into account the full spectrum of Web service techniques and activities. It presents a multi-agents architecture based on artificial psychology techniques, which makes the e-Education process both adaptable and dynamic, and hence up-to-date. Knowledge base techniques are used to support the e-Education process, and artificial psychology techniques to deal with user psychology, which makes the e-Education system more effective and satisfying.

Data Unfolding with Wiener-SVD Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, W.; Li, X.; Qian, X.

Here, data unfolding is a common analysis technique used in HEP data analysis. Inspired by the deconvolution technique in the digital signal processing, a new unfolding technique based on the SVD technique and the well-known Wiener filter is introduced. The Wiener-SVD unfolding approach achieves the unfolding by maximizing the signal to noise ratios in the effective frequency domain given expectations of signal and noise and is free from regularization parameter. Through a couple examples, the pros and cons of the Wiener-SVD approach as well as the nature of the unfolded results are discussed.

Data Unfolding with Wiener-SVD Method

DOE PAGES

Tang, W.; Li, X.; Qian, X.; ...

2017-10-04

Here, data unfolding is a common analysis technique used in HEP data analysis. Inspired by the deconvolution technique in the digital signal processing, a new unfolding technique based on the SVD technique and the well-known Wiener filter is introduced. The Wiener-SVD unfolding approach achieves the unfolding by maximizing the signal to noise ratios in the effective frequency domain given expectations of signal and noise and is free from regularization parameter. Through a couple examples, the pros and cons of the Wiener-SVD approach as well as the nature of the unfolded results are discussed.

Why risk managers need information about spatio-temporal variability of natural hazards. Examples from practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zischg, Andreas

2013-04-01

Integrated risk management consists of risk prevention, early warning, intervention during an event and restoration/re-construction after an event. The prevention phase consists of land use planning measures with a long-term time horizon and of structural measures that sometimes have a lifespan of more than 30-50 years. In this case, it is important to analyse the long-term evolvement of natural risks due to climate changes or land use changes. Besides of this, the spatial and temporal variability of a natural hazard process during the course of an event is also important. The shift from "static" hazard and risk assessment towards a "dynamic" assessment offers benefits for improving the intervention phase in risk management. This contribution describes some examples and points out the benefits of this shift for risk management. One example is the variable disposition of small alpine catchments for runoff and its relevance for early warning. The disposition for runoff depends on the actual status of environmental variables such as soil moisture and the snowpack characteristics. A feasibility study showed how the monitoring of soil moisture and the status of the snowpack can be incorporated into a rule base for describing the temporal variability of the disposition for high runoff in alpine catchments. The study showed that this information about the system state of alpine catchments can be used to improve the assessment of the consequences of a weather forecast for risk management. Another example is the use of snowpack and weather monitoring and traffic intensity measurements for avalanche risk management on alpine roads. Here, the information about the spatio-temporal variability of the snow avalanches and the presence of vehicles can be used for improving the procedures for road closure and re-opening. Another example is the preparation of intervention plans for fire brigades and other relief units during urban floods. The simulation of the temporal evolvement of a single flood event (time horizon of 0-24 hours) provides information for the elaboration of the intervention tactic. The following questions can be answered only by knowing the temporal and spatial evolvement during an event itself: Which intervention priorities have to be set if the resources of the relief units are limited? Which early interventions could be turn out to be unhelpful because in a later step the object to be protected will be flooded anyway? What is the time available for setting up object protection measures and other flood protection measures? The most important factor to implement the theory in practice is the focus on the interlinkages between the simulation of all possible scenarios in advance (scenario techniques, analysing the time-steps in flood simulation), the monitoring system (now-casting, real-time-data), the scenarios of intervention measures and their interdependency with the hazard scenarios. The interlinkages can be set up and described with the expert system approach.

A Retrograde Transvenous Embolization Technique with Balloon-Assisted Arterial Aspiration for a Peripheral Arteriovenous Malformation with a Venous Pouch

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuhara, Asako, E-mail: kuhara-asako@med.kurume-u.ac.jp; Tanaka, Norimitsu; Koganemaru, Masamichi

Management of arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) is challenging, and there is no consensus regarding either the ideal approach or the treatment timing. Percutaneous embolization is the most frequent approach currently used and is considered the first-line technique for AVMs. There is an ongoing discussion about the best technical approach to embolize AVMs. AVMs associated with a dominant outflow vein (DOV) are rare. Embolization of both the DOV and the nidus is considered more effective. Herein, we report a novel technique of transvenous embolization of a DOV under negative pressure from an arterial balloon catheter in a case of a peripheral AVM.more » This technique allows the embolization of the DOV and the nidus retrogradely.« less

A new technique for the characterization of chaff elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholfield, David; Myat, Maung; Dauby, Jason; Fesler, Jonathon; Bright, Jonathan

2011-07-01

A new technique for the experimental characterization of electromagnetic chaff based on Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar is presented. This technique allows for the characterization of as few as one filament of chaff in a controlled anechoic environment allowing for stability and repeatability of experimental results. This approach allows for a deeper understanding of the fundamental phenomena of electromagnetic scattering from chaff through an incremental analysis approach. Chaff analysis can now begin with a single element and progress through the build-up of particles into pseudo-cloud structures. This controlled incremental approach is supported by an identical incremental modeling and validation process. Additionally, this technique has the potential to produce considerable savings in financial and schedule cost and provides a stable and repeatable experiment to aid model valuation.

Multidisciplinary team approach to residual limb lengthening using the Ilizarov technique: A case study.

PubMed

Savage, Zoliakha; Munjal, Ramesh

2015-10-01

A 47-year-old male suffered a traumatic transtibial amputation; initial limb use was unsuccessful and the short tibial length was thought to be the cause of failure. The patient underwent gradual tibia lengthening using the Ilizarov technique and utilised a weight-bearing prosthesis to expedite bone growth and repair. The patient is now able to use his prosthesis successfully without aids. This case study demonstrates that combining a scientifically based surgical technique with a tailored rehabilitation approach had an improved outcome for the patient. This study reports one case where tibial lengthening using the Ilizarov technique combined with a collaborative team approach has enabled a patient to return to successful prosthetic limb use. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2014.

A minimally invasive surgical approach for large cyst-like periapical lesions: a case series.

PubMed

Shah, Naseem; Logani, Ajay; Kumar, Vijay

2014-01-01

Various conservative approaches have been utilized to manage large periapical lesions. This article presents a relatively new, very conservative technique known as surgical fenestration which is both diagnostic and curative. The technique involves partially excising the cystic lining, gently curetting the cystic cavity, performing copious irrigation, and closing the surgical site. This technique allows for decompression and allows the clinician the freedom to take a biopsy of the lesion, as well as perform other procedures such as root resection and retrograde sealing, if required. As the procedure does not perform a complete excision of the cystic lining, it is both minimally invasive and cost-effective. The technique and the concepts involved are reviewed in 4 cases treated with this novel surgical approach.

Role of Soft Computing Approaches in HealthCare Domain: A Mini Review.

PubMed

Gambhir, Shalini; Malik, Sanjay Kumar; Kumar, Yugal

2016-12-01

In the present era, soft computing approaches play a vital role in solving the different kinds of problems and provide promising solutions. Due to popularity of soft computing approaches, these approaches have also been applied in healthcare data for effectively diagnosing the diseases and obtaining better results in comparison to traditional approaches. Soft computing approaches have the ability to adapt itself according to problem domain. Another aspect is a good balance between exploration and exploitation processes. These aspects make soft computing approaches more powerful, reliable and efficient. The above mentioned characteristics make the soft computing approaches more suitable and competent for health care data. The first objective of this review paper is to identify the various soft computing approaches which are used for diagnosing and predicting the diseases. Second objective is to identify various diseases for which these approaches are applied. Third objective is to categories the soft computing approaches for clinical support system. In literature, it is found that large number of soft computing approaches have been applied for effectively diagnosing and predicting the diseases from healthcare data. Some of these are particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm, artificial neural network, support vector machine etc. A detailed discussion on these approaches are presented in literature section. This work summarizes various soft computing approaches used in healthcare domain in last one decade. These approaches are categorized in five different categories based on the methodology, these are classification model based system, expert system, fuzzy and neuro fuzzy system, rule based system and case based system. Lot of techniques are discussed in above mentioned categories and all discussed techniques are summarized in the form of tables also. This work also focuses on accuracy rate of soft computing technique and tabular information is provided for each category including author details, technique, disease and utility/accuracy.

[An object-oriented intelligent engineering design approach for lake pollution control].

PubMed

Zou, Rui; Zhou, Jing; Liu, Yong; Zhu, Xiang; Zhao, Lei; Yang, Ping-Jian; Guo, Huai-Cheng

2013-03-01

Regarding the shortage and deficiency of traditional lake pollution control engineering techniques, a new lake pollution control engineering approach was proposed in this study, based on object-oriented intelligent design (OOID) from the perspective of intelligence. It can provide a new methodology and framework for effectively controlling lake pollution and improving water quality. The differences between the traditional engineering techniques and the OOID approach were compared. The key points for OOID were described as object perspective, cause and effect foundation, set points into surface, and temporal and spatial optimization. The blue algae control in lake was taken as an example in this study. The effect of algae control and water quality improvement were analyzed in details from the perspective of object-oriented intelligent design based on two engineering techniques (vertical hydrodynamic mixer and pumping algaecide recharge). The modeling results showed that the traditional engineering design paradigm cannot provide scientific and effective guidance for engineering design and decision-making regarding lake pollution. Intelligent design approach is based on the object perspective and quantitative causal analysis in this case. This approach identified that the efficiency of mixers was much higher than pumps in achieving the goal of low to moderate water quality improvement. However, when the objective of water quality exceeded a certain value (such as the control objective of peak Chla concentration exceeded 100 microg x L(-1) in this experimental water), the mixer cannot achieve this goal. The pump technique can achieve the goal but with higher cost. The efficiency of combining the two techniques was higher than using one of the two techniques alone. Moreover, the quantitative scale control of the two engineering techniques has a significant impact on the actual project benefits and costs.

Evolution of Minimally Invasive Approaches to the Sella and Parasellar Region

PubMed Central

Louis, Robert G.; Eisenberg, Amy; Barkhoudarian, Garni; Griffiths, Chester; Kelly, Daniel F.

2014-01-01

Introduction Given advancements in endoscopic image quality, instrumentation, surgical navigation, skull base closure techniques, and anatomical understanding, the endonasal endoscopic approach has rapidly evolved into a widely utilized technique for removal of sellar and parasellar tumors. Although pituitary adenomas and Rathke cleft cysts constitute the majority of lesions removed via this route, craniopharyngiomas, clival chordomas, parasellar meningiomas, and other lesions are increasingly removed using this approach. Paralleling the evolution of the endonasal route to the parasellar region, the supraorbital eyebrow craniotomy has also been increasingly used as an alternative minimally invasive approach to reach this skull base region. Similar to the endonasal route, the supraorbital route has been greatly facilitated by advances in endoscopy, along with development of more refined, low-profile instrumentation and surgical navigation technology. Objectives This review, encompassing both transcranial and transsphenoidal routes, will recount the high points and advances that have made minimally invasive approaches to the sellar region possible, the evolution of these approaches, and their relative indications and technical nuances. Data Synthesis The literature is reviewed regarding the evolution of surgical approaches to the sellar region beginning with the earliest attempts and emphasizing technological advances, which have allowed the evolution of the modern technique. The surgical techniques for both endoscopic transsphenoidal and supraorbital approaches are described in detail. The relative indications for each approach are highlighted using case illustrations. Conclusions Although tremendous advances have been made in transitioning toward minimally invasive transcranial and transsphenoidal approaches to the sella, further work remains to be done. Together, the endonasal endoscopic and the supraorbital endoscope-assisted approaches are complementary minimally invasive routes to the parasellar region. PMID:25992138

Robotic Spent Fuel Monitoring – It is time to improve old approaches and old techniques!

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tobin, Stephen Joseph; Dasari, Venkateswara Rao; Trellue, Holly Renee

This report describes various approaches and techniques associated with robotic spent fuel monitoring. The purpose of this description is to improve the quality of measured signatures, reduce the inspection burden on the IAEA, and to provide frequent verification.

Arched needle technique for inferior alveolar mandibular nerve block.

PubMed

Chakranarayan, Ashish; Mukherjee, B

2013-03-01

One of the most commonly used local anesthetic techniques in dentistry is the Fischer's technique for the inferior alveolar nerve block. Incidentally this technique also suffers the maximum failure rate of approximately 35-45%. We studied a method of inferior alveolar nerve block by injecting a local anesthetic solution into the pterygomandibular space by arching and changing the approach angle of the conventional technique and estimated its efficacy. The needle after the initial insertion is arched and inserted in a manner that it approaches the medial surface of the ramus at an angle almost perpendicular to it. The technique was applied to 100 patients for mandibular molar extraction and the anesthetic effects were assessed. A success rate of 98% was obtained.

Cognitive techniques and language: A return to behavioral origins.

PubMed

Froján Parga, María X; Núñez de Prado Gordillo, Miguel; de Pascual Verdú, Ricardo

2017-08-01

the main purpose of this study is to offer an alternative explanatory account of the functioning of cognitive techniques that is based on the principles of associative learning and highlights their verbal nature. The traditional accounts are questioned and analyzed in the light of the situation of psychology in the 1970s. conceptual analysis is employed to revise the concepts of language, cognition and behavior. Several operant- and Pavlovian-based approaches to these phenomena are presented, while particular emphasis is given to Mowrer’s (1954) approach and Ryle (1949) and Wittgenstein’s (1953) philosophical contributions to the field. several logical problems are found in regard to the theoretical foundations of cognitive techniques. A combination of both operant and Pavlovian paradigms based on the above-mentioned approaches is offered as an alternative explanatory account of cognitive techniques. This new approach could overcome the conceptual fragilities of the cognitive standpoint and its dependence upon constructs of dubious logical and scientific validity.

[History and Technique of Epidural Anaesthesia].

PubMed

Waurick, Katrin; Waurick, René

2015-07-01

In 1901, the first Epidural anesthesia via a caudal approach was independently described by two FrenchmanJean-Anthanase Sicard and Fernand Cathelin.. The Spanish military surgeon, Fidel Pagés Miravé, completed the lumbar approach successfully in 1921. The two possibilities for identification of the epidural space the "loss of resistance" technique and the technique of the "hanging drop" were developed by Achille Mario Dogliotti, an Italian, and Alberto Gutierrez, an Argentinean physician, at the same time. In 1956 John J. Bonica published the paramedian approach to the epidural space. As early as 1931 Eugene Aburel, a Romanian obstetrician, injected local anaesthetics via a silk catheter to perform lumbar obstetric Epidural analgesia. In 1949 the first successful continuous lumbar Epidural anaesthesia was reported by Manuel Martinez Curbelo, a Cuban. Epidural anaesthesia can be performed in sitting or lateral position in all segments of the spinal column via the median or paramedian approach. Different off-axis angles pose the challenge in learning the technique. © Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart · New York.

Crystallography of ordered colloids using optical microscopy. 2. Divergent-beam technique.

PubMed

Rogers, Richard B; Lagerlöf, K Peter D

2008-04-10

A technique has been developed to extract quantitative crystallographic data from randomly oriented colloidal crystals using a divergent-beam approach. This technique was tested on a series of diverse experimental images of colloidal crystals formed from monodisperse suspensions of sterically stabilized poly-(methyl methacrylate) spheres suspended in organic index-matching solvents. Complete sets of reciprocal lattice basis vectors were extracted in all but one case. When data extraction was successful, results appeared to be accurate to about 1% for lattice parameters and to within approximately 2 degrees for orientation. This approach is easier to implement than a previously developed parallel-beam approach with the drawback that the divergent-beam approach is not as robust in certain situations with random hexagonal close-packed crystals. The two techniques are therefore complimentary to each other, and between them it should be possible to extract quantitative crystallographic data with a conventional optical microscope from any closely index-matched colloidal crystal whose lattice parameters are compatible with visible wavelengths.

[NOTES ASSISTED ENDOLUMENAL RECTAL RESECTION AND SPECIMEN EXTRACTION WITHOUT RECTAL STUMP OPENING - OUR EXPERIENCE WITH THIS NOVEL TECHNIQUE IN A PORCINE MODEL].

PubMed

Kvasha, Anton; Rosenthal, Eyal; Khalifa, Muhammad; Waksman, Igor

2017-05-01

Laparoscopic surgery has long been used for colon and rectal resection, and the laparoscopic-assisted approach has prevailed in surgical practice. While this technique includes the fashioning of an intra-corporeal anastomosis, it still requires an abdominal incision for specimen extraction. Elimination of the abdominal incision and its potential complications has been the motivation for the development of natural orifice specimen extraction (NOSE) techniques. Many of these techniques make use of an open rectal stump, which poses as a potential for intra-abdominal contamination. Our group has recently described a novel, NOTES assisted, clean, endoluminal rectal resection utilizing transabdominal and transanal approaches. In this paper we report the combined experience of two study groups: an open approach to the abdominal cavity and a laparoscopic approach to the peritoneal cavity. Ten female pigs were used for this research; 5 in a group using an open approach and 5 using a laparoscopic approach for the abdominal part of the procedure. During the procedure, the rectum was mobilized. An end-to-end circular stapler was used to create a recto-rectal intussusception and pull-through (IPT). The specimen was resected and extracted by making a full thickness incision through 2 bowel walls. The stapler was applied, and a recto-rectal anastomosis created. This was allowed to retract into the abdomen. Peritoneal fluid was sampled for bacteria, the pigs were sacrificed immediately after the experiment and necropsy was performed. All 10 pigs underwent an endoluminal rectal resection utilizing the trans-anal IPT technique. The proximal and distal resection margins remained approximated over the shaft of the anvil after bowel resection in all 10 subjects. A 2- to 4-mm resection margin, distal to the ligatures was accomplished consistently in all 10 subjects. No aerobic or anaerobic bacterial growth was observed in any of the peritoneal fluid samples. Our research demonstrated the feasibility of the described technique in both open and laparoscopic approaches to a clean endoluminal bowel resection and trans-anal specimen extraction without rectal stump opening. The fact that no bacterial growth was found in any of the peritoneal samples supports the initial classification of this novel technique as clean, as opposed to clean contaminated, which classifies all other techniques in use to date.

Modal, ray, and beam techniques for analyzing the EM scattering by open-ended waveguide cavities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pathak, Prabhakar H.; Burkholder, Robert J.

1989-01-01

The problem of high-frequency electromagnetic (EM) scattering by open-ended waveguide cavities with an interior termination is analyzed via three different approaches. When cavities can be adequately modeled by joining together piecewise separable waveguide sections, a hybrid combination of asymptotic high-frequency and modal techniques is employed. In the case of more arbitrarily shaped waveguide cavities for which modes cannot even be defined in the conventional sense, the geometrical optics ray approach proves to be highly useful. However, at sufficiently high frequencies, both of these approaches tend to become inefficient. Hence, a paraxial Gaussian batch technique, which retains much of the simplicity of the ray approximation but is potentially more efficient, is investigated. Typical numerical results based on the different approaches are discussed.

Photogrammetry and optical methods in structural dynamics - A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baqersad, Javad; Poozesh, Peyman; Niezrecki, Christopher; Avitabile, Peter

2017-03-01

In the last few decades, there has been a surge of research in the area of non-contact measurement techniques. Photogrammetry has received considerable attention due to its ability to achieve full-field measurement and its robustness to work in testing environments and on testing articles in which using other measurement techniques may not be practical. More recently, researchers have used this technique to study transient phenomena and to perform measurements on vibrating structures. The current paper reviews the most current trends in the photogrammetry technique (point tracking, digital image correlation, and target-less approaches) and compares the applications of photogrammetry to other measurement techniques used in structural dynamics (e.g. laser Doppler vibrometry and interferometry techniques). The paper does not present the theoretical background of the optical techniques, but instead presents the general principles of each approach and highlights the novel structural dynamic measurement concepts and applications that are enhanced by utilizing optical techniques.

Quantitative filter forensics for indoor particle sampling.

PubMed

Haaland, D; Siegel, J A

2017-03-01

Filter forensics is a promising indoor air investigation technique involving the analysis of dust which has collected on filters in central forced-air heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) or portable systems to determine the presence of indoor particle-bound contaminants. In this study, we summarize past filter forensics research to explore what it reveals about the sampling technique and the indoor environment. There are 60 investigations in the literature that have used this sampling technique for a variety of biotic and abiotic contaminants. Many studies identified differences between contaminant concentrations in different buildings using this technique. Based on this literature review, we identified a lack of quantification as a gap in the past literature. Accordingly, we propose an approach to quantitatively link contaminants extracted from HVAC filter dust to time-averaged integrated air concentrations. This quantitative filter forensics approach has great potential to measure indoor air concentrations of a wide variety of particle-bound contaminants. Future studies directly comparing quantitative filter forensics to alternative sampling techniques are required to fully assess this approach, but analysis of past research suggests the enormous possibility of this approach. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Computer animation challenges for computational fluid dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vines, Mauricio; Lee, Won-Sook; Mavriplis, Catherine

2012-07-01

Computer animation requirements differ from those of traditional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) investigations in that visual plausibility and rapid frame update rates trump physical accuracy. We present an overview of the main techniques for fluid simulation in computer animation, starting with Eulerian grid approaches, the Lattice Boltzmann method, Fourier transform techniques and Lagrangian particle introduction. Adaptive grid methods, precomputation of results for model reduction, parallelisation and computation on graphical processing units (GPUs) are reviewed in the context of accelerating simulation computations for animation. A survey of current specific approaches for the application of these techniques to the simulation of smoke, fire, water, bubbles, mixing, phase change and solid-fluid coupling is also included. Adding plausibility to results through particle introduction, turbulence detail and concentration on regions of interest by level set techniques has elevated the degree of accuracy and realism of recent animations. Basic approaches are described here. Techniques to control the simulation to produce a desired visual effect are also discussed. Finally, some references to rendering techniques and haptic applications are mentioned to provide the reader with a complete picture of the challenges of simulating fluids in computer animation.

Framing quality improvement tools and techniques in healthcare the case of improvement leaders' guides.

PubMed

Millar, Ross

2013-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a study of how quality improvement tools and techniques are framed within healthcare settings. The paper employs an interpretive approach to understand how quality improvement tools and techniques are mobilised and legitimated. It does so using a case study of the NHS Modernisation Agency Improvement Leaders' Guides in England. Improvement Leaders' Guides were framed within a service improvement approach encouraging the use of quality improvement tools and techniques within healthcare settings. Their use formed part of enacting tools and techniques across different contexts. Whilst this enactment was believed to support the mobilisation of tools and techniques, the experience also illustrated the challenges in distributing such approaches. The paper provides an important contribution in furthering our understanding of framing the "social act" of quality improvement. Given the ongoing emphasis on quality improvement in health systems and the persistent challenges involved, it also provides important information for healthcare leaders globally in seeking to develop, implement or modify similar tools and distribute leadership within health and social care settings.

Music: Instrumental Techniques, Conducting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grozan, Carl

A course in introduction to the conducting of music groups of voices or instruments is presented. The approach used is a laboratory approach in which pupils will develop skills in score reading, physical gestures, rehearsal techniques, transpositions, voice and instrument ranges. Course objectives include: (1) The pupil will identify all…

Three Contributions of a Spiritual Perspective to Counseling, Psychotherapy, and Behavior Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergin, Allen E.

1988-01-01

Describes ways in which a spiritual approach can contribute to the modern applied science of behavior change. Divides approach into three areas: conception of human nature, moral frame of reference, and set of techniques. Discusses and demonstrates the transitional person technique. (Author/BH)

Endoscopic Endonasal Skull Base Surgery: Advantages, Limitations, and Our Techniques to Overcome Cerebrospinal Fluid Leakage: Technical Note

PubMed Central

ISHII, Yudo; TAHARA, Shigeyuki; TERAMOTO, Akira; MORITA, Akio

2014-01-01

In recent years, resections of midline skull base tumors have been conducted using endoscopic endonasal skull base (EESB) approaches. Nevertheless, many surgeons reported that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage is still a major complication of these approaches. Here, we report the results of our 42 EESB surgeries and discuss the advantages and limits of this approach for resecting various types of tumors, and also report our technique to overcome CSF leakage. All 42 cases involved midline skull base tumors resected using the EESB technique. Dural incisions were closed using nasoseptal flaps and fascia patch inlay sutures. Total removal of the tumor was accomplished in seven pituitary adenomas (33.3%), five craniopharyngiomas (62.5%), five tuberculum sellae meningiomas (83.3%), three clival chordomas (100%), and one suprasellar ependymoma. Residual regions included the cavernous sinus, the outside of the intracranial part of the internal carotid artery, the lower lateral part of the posterior clivus, and the posterior pituitary stalk. Overall incidence of CSF leakage was 7.1%. Even though the versatility of the approach is limited, EESB surgery has many advantages compared to the transcranial approach for managing mid-line skull base lesions. To avoid CSF leakage, surgeons should have skills and techniques for complete closure, including use of the nasoseptal flap and fascia patch inlay techniques. PMID:25446379

Surgical approaches for varicocele in pediatric patient

PubMed Central

Parrilli, Alejandra; Escolino, Maria; Esposito, Ciro

2016-01-01

Background Varicocele represents one of the most common surgically correctible urologic anomalies in adolescent males. The best procedure for the treatment of adolescent varicocele has not been established, but with recent advances in minimal access surgery, there have been many reports praising the safety and efficacy of laparoscopy and retroperitoneoscopy for the surgical correction of varicocele in adolescent. The aim of this review is to compare the results of Palomo’s technique, with retroperitoneoscopic and transperitoneoscopic approaches in adolescent, analyzing recurrence, testicular growth and complications. Methods A literature search on PubMed and Cochrane Database was conducted with regard to management of varicocele in adolescent population. Twenty two English language studies that compared outcome of different minimally invasive treatments or outcome of minimally invasive and traditional surgical treatments for adolescent diagnosed with varicocele were included. Results Intraoperative complications of minimally invasive approaches occur in early cases, but in pediatric urology these procedures would become more efficient with experience and these approaches continue to increase in number. Postoperative hydrocele is the most postoperative compliance of Palom technique, and reports have shown a wide range of variability for his incidence, depending on the technique used for surgical treatment. Literature showed an increase of testicular volume for real growth of testis after surgery, and an intratesticular improvement in sperm quality after minimally invasive approach. In laparoscopic approach reports have showed very low recurrence because allows better vision of collateral veins, and a lymphatic sparing technique permit to identify lymphatic vessels in 100% of cases. Conclusions The literature has shown that laparoscopic varicocelectomy is the surgical approach most commonly reported in adolescent patients, and that its use is increasing for better training for surgeons and the ability to avoid operational hydrocele that is a main complication after technical Palomo’s technique. PMID:27867844

Brain Stem Cavernous Malformations: Operative Nuances of a Less-Invasive Resection Technique.

PubMed

Singh, Harminder; Elarjani, Turki; da Silva, Harley Brito; Shetty, Rakshith; Kim, Louis; Sekhar, Laligam N

2017-12-08

Different operative techniques are reported for the resection of brainstem cavernous malformations (BSCMs). The senior author has previously reported on a less-invasive technique of entering the brain stem with piecemeal removal of BSCMs, especially the deep-seated ones. To present a larger series of these lesions, emphasizing the approach to the brain stem via case selection. We discuss the nuances of the less-invasive operative technique through case illustrations and intraoperative videos. A retrospective review of 46 consecutive cases of BSCMs, with their clinical and radiographic data, was performed. Nine cases were selected to illustrate 7 different operative approaches, and discuss surgical nuances of the less-invasive technique unique to each. Postoperative morbidity, defined as an increase in modified Rankin Scale, was observed in 5 patients (10.9%). A residual BSCM was present in 2 patients (4.3%); both underwent reoperation to remove the remainder. At follow-up of 31.1 ± 27.8 mo, 3 patients experienced recurrence (6.5%). Overall, 65% of our patients improved, 20% stayed the same, and 11% worsened postsurgery. Two patients died, yielding a mortality of 4.3%. Using the less-invasive resection technique for piecemeal BSCM removal, in appropriately selected patients, has yielded comparable to improved patient outcomes over existing large series. In our experience, lateral, anterolateral, and posterolateral approaches are favorable over direct midline (dorsal or ventral) approaches. A thorough understanding of brain-stem safe-entry zones, in conjunction with appropriate approach selection, is key to a good outcome in challenging cases. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

Knee fusion--a new technique using an old Belgian surgical approach and a new intramedullary nail.

PubMed

Alt, V; Seligson, D

2001-02-01

Knee arthrodesis is a useful procedure in difficult cases such as failed total knee arthroplasty, severe articular trauma, bone tumors, and infected knee joints. The most common techniques for knee fusion include external fixation and intramedullary nailing. Küntscher's nail is driven antegrade from the intertrochanteric region into the knee. We describe a new technique for knee arthrodesis using a new intramedullary nail and an old Belgian surgical approach to the knee joint published by Lambotte in 1913. This approach provides excellent exposure for the implantation of the nail by osteotomizing the patella vertically. The nail is implanted using HeyGroves method, whereby the nail is inserted retrograde into the femur and pulled distally anterograde into the tibia. We now use this technique as our standard procedure for knee fusion.

The dance of psychotherapy.

PubMed

Slavin-Mulford, Jenelle

2013-09-01

Using a dance metaphor, this article presents an approach to teaching therapeutic techniques to beginning graduate students in which interventions are first taught separately for purposes of clarity followed by an emphasis on integration, creativity, and flexibility. To illustrate the format of this approach, I provide theory, research, and prototypic clinical examples for the three therapeutic techniques that I use most frequently in my own practice. These techniques are support/empathy, immediacy, and affect exploration, experiencing, and expression. This is followed by a case presentation in which these three techniques are used together in a unique way to facilitate the work. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Multigrid techniques for unstructured meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mavriplis, D. J.

1995-01-01

An overview of current multigrid techniques for unstructured meshes is given. The basic principles of the multigrid approach are first outlined. Application of these principles to unstructured mesh problems is then described, illustrating various different approaches, and giving examples of practical applications. Advanced multigrid topics, such as the use of algebraic multigrid methods, and the combination of multigrid techniques with adaptive meshing strategies are dealt with in subsequent sections. These represent current areas of research, and the unresolved issues are discussed. The presentation is organized in an educational manner, for readers familiar with computational fluid dynamics, wishing to learn more about current unstructured mesh techniques.

Evaluation Methods for Intelligent Tutoring Systems Revisited

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greer, Jim; Mark, Mary

2016-01-01

The 1993 paper in "IJAIED" on evaluation methods for Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) still holds up well today. Basic evaluation techniques described in that paper remain in use. Approaches such as kappa scores, simulated learners and learning curves are refinements on past evaluation techniques. New approaches have also arisen, in…

Using Drawings in Play Therapy: A Jungian Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birch, Jennifer; Carmichael, Karla D.

2009-01-01

Counselors working with children employ a variety of therapeutic techniques and tools from various theoretical models. One of these tools, drawing, is increasingly being implemented into play therapy. The purpose of this paper is to briefly review Jungian theoretical approaches as they pertain to drawing techniques within the counseling session.

Reimagining Teacher Development: Cultivating Spirit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dress, Amelia

2012-01-01

Although well-meaning, some methods of training approach teaching as a one-size-fits-all approach. Yet, there are myriad techniques for teaching and no one method works for all teachers or all students. Indeed, good teachers use a variety of techniques. Unfortunately, search for objective standards by which to measure quality teaching has…

Computational approaches to computational aero-acoustics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardin, Jay C.

1996-01-01

The various techniques by which the goal of computational aeroacoustics (the calculation and noise prediction of a fluctuating fluid flow) may be achieved are reviewed. The governing equations for compressible fluid flow are presented. The direct numerical simulation approach is shown to be computationally intensive for high Reynolds number viscous flows. Therefore, other approaches, such as the acoustic analogy, vortex models and various perturbation techniques that aim to break the analysis into a viscous part and an acoustic part are presented. The choice of the approach is shown to be problem dependent.

Intramuscular injection technique: an evidence-based approach.

PubMed

Ogston-Tuck, Sherri

2014-09-30

Intramuscular injections require a thorough and meticulous approach to patient assessment and injection technique. This article, the second in a series of two, reviews the evidence base to inform safer practice and to consider the evidence for nursing practice in this area. A framework for safe practice is included, identifying important points for safe technique, patient care and clinical decision making. It also highlights the ongoing debate in selection of intramuscular injection sites, predominately the ventrogluteal and dorsogluteal muscles.

Acceleration techniques in the univariate Lipschitz global optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergeyev, Yaroslav D.; Kvasov, Dmitri E.; Mukhametzhanov, Marat S.; De Franco, Angela

2016-10-01

Univariate box-constrained Lipschitz global optimization problems are considered in this contribution. Geometric and information statistical approaches are presented. The novel powerful local tuning and local improvement techniques are described in the contribution as well as the traditional ways to estimate the Lipschitz constant. The advantages of the presented local tuning and local improvement techniques are demonstrated using the operational characteristics approach for comparing deterministic global optimization algorithms on the class of 100 widely used test functions.

Art, Objects, and Beautiful Stories: A "New" Approach to Spiritual Care.

PubMed

Smith, Aaron P B; Read, Julia E

2017-06-01

The use of story, and the use of art or various arts-based techniques have become popular in a number of helping professions, including spiritual care. There remains a gap in the literature, however, in which an approach comprised of both story and art or objects is explored. This paper addresses this gap by discussing the experience, theory, benefits, and technique of combining story and art or object-based techniques for the provision of spiritual care.

[A comprehensive approach to designing of magnetotherapy techniques based on the Atos device].

PubMed

Raĭgorodskiĭ, Iu M; Semiachkin, G P; Tatarenko, D A

1995-01-01

The paper determines how to apply a comprehensive approach to designing magnetic therapeutical techniques based on concomitant exposures to two or more physical factors. It shows the advantages of the running pattern of a magnetic field and photostimuli in terms of optimization of physiotherapeutical exposures. An Atos apparatus with an Amblio-1 attachment is used as an example to demonstrate how to apply the comprehensive approach for ophthalmology.

Diagnostic tools for nearest neighbors techniques when used with satellite imagery

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2009-01-01

Nearest neighbors techniques are non-parametric approaches to multivariate prediction that are useful for predicting both continuous and categorical forest attribute variables. Although some assumptions underlying nearest neighbor techniques are common to other prediction techniques such as regression, other assumptions are unique to nearest neighbor techniques....

Video: two novel endoscopic esophageal lengthening and reconstruction techniques.

PubMed

Perretta, Silvana; Wall, James K; Dallemagne, Bernard; Harrison, Michael; Becmeur, François; Marescaux, Jacques

2011-10-01

Esophageal reconstruction presents a significant clinical challenge in patients ranging from neonates with long-gap esophageal atresia to adults after esophageal resection. Both gastric and colonic replacement conduits carry significant morbidity. As emerging organ-sparring techniques become established for early stage esophageal tumors, less morbid reconstruction techniques are warranted. We present two novel endoscopic approaches for esophageal lengthening and reconstruction in a porcine model. Two models of esophageal defects were created in pigs (30-35 kg) under general anesthesia and subsequently reconstructed with the novel techniques. The first model was a segmental defect of the esophagus created by thoracoscopically transecting the esophagus above the gastroesophageal (GE) junction. The first reconstruction technique involved bilateral submucosal endoscopic lengthening myotomies (BSELM) with a magnetic compression anastomosis (MAGNAMOSIS™). The second model was a wedge defect in the anterior esophagus created above the GE junction through a laparotomy. The second reconstruction technique involved an inverted mucosal-submucosal sleeve transposition graft (IMSTG) that crossed the esophageal gap and was secured in place with a self-expandable covered esophageal stent. Both techniques were feasible in the pig model. The BSELM approach lengthened the esophagus 1 cm for every 2 cm length of myotomy. The myotomy targeted only the inner circular fibers of the esophagus, with preservation of the longitudinal layer to protect against long-term dilation and pouching. The IMSTG approach generated a vascularized mucosal graft almost as long as the esophagus itself. Emerging endoscopic capabilities are enabling complex endoluminal esophageal procedures. BSELM and IMSTG are two novel and technically feasible approaches to esophageal lengthening and reconstruction. Further survival studies are needed to establish the safety and efficacy of these techniques.

Variations in aseptic technique and implications for infection control.

PubMed

Aziz, Anne Marie

Healthcare-acquired infections (HAIs) are a serious concern, costing the NHS 1 billion pounds a year and causing 5000 deaths annually despite increased funding. A contributing factor is the variety of aseptic techniques in use in different hospitals and even within a single hospital. These cause problems for healthcare workers as well as increasing the risk of HAI. This article examines a number of traditional approaches to aseptic technique, highlighting their differences and the implications for infection control. It concludes that improvement in aseptic technique could be achieved by implementation of a single unified approach to aseptic technique that can be standardized and audited annually, such as the aseptic non-touch technique (ANTT), which has been recommended for adoption throughout the UK. It ends with suggestions for measures that could be introduced and strengthened to improve aseptic technique, and ultimately reduce the rate of HAI.

Comparing digital data processing techniques for surface mine and reclamation monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witt, R. G.; Bly, B. G.; Campbell, W. J.; Bloemer, H. H. L.; Brumfield, J. O.

1982-01-01

The results of three techniques used for processing Landsat digital data are compared for their utility in delineating areas of surface mining and subsequent reclamation. An unsupervised clustering algorithm (ISOCLS), a maximum-likelihood classifier (CLASFY), and a hybrid approach utilizing canonical analysis (ISOCLS/KLTRANS/ISOCLS) were compared by means of a detailed accuracy assessment with aerial photography at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Results show that the hybrid approach was superior to the traditional techniques in distinguishing strip mined and reclaimed areas.

Validation of Multilevel Constructs: Validation Methods and Empirical Findings for the EDI

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forer, Barry; Zumbo, Bruno D.

2011-01-01

The purposes of this paper are to highlight the foundations of multilevel construct validation, describe two methodological approaches and associated analytic techniques, and then apply these approaches and techniques to the multilevel construct validation of a widely-used school readiness measure called the Early Development Instrument (EDI;…

A Flipped Classroom Approach to Teaching Systems Analysis, Design and Implementation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanner, Maureen; Scott, Elsje

2015-01-01

This paper describes a flipped classroom approach followed to teach systems analysis, design and implementation at university level. The techniques employed are described. These techniques were underpinned by a theory of coherent practice: a pedagogy that provides a framework for the design of highly structured interventions to guide students in…

Training by Objectives: An Economic Approach to Management Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odiorne, George S.

In keeping with the current trend in business education, this book adopts a "systems" approach to training. Objectives are first defined, and then training theories and techniques are used to reach them. Economic and behavioral aspects of training are discussed and many new techniques such as sensitivity, motivational, and human relations training…

Across Disciplines: A Three Pronged Approach--One Department's Response to Campus-Wide Writing Needs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christiansen, Pauline

A west coast community college English department used the following three approaches to seek more effective cross discipline writing awareness: in-house techniques--including topics from various disciplines in classroom assignments; meeting-them-halfway techniques--providing resource people and materials for all instructors and students who…

An Explorative Learning Approach to Teaching Clinical Anatomy Using Student Generated Content

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Philip, Christo T.; Unruh, Kenneth P.; Lachman, Nirusha; Pawlina, Wojciech

2008-01-01

Translating basic sciences into a clinical framework has been approached through the implementation of various teaching techniques aimed at using a patient case scenario to facilitate learning. These techniques present students with a specific patient case and lead the students to discuss physiological processes through analysis of provided data…

Visualizing Ebolavirus Particles Using Single-Particle Interferometric Reflectance Imaging Sensor (SP-IRIS).

PubMed

Carter, Erik P; Seymour, Elif Ç; Scherr, Steven M; Daaboul, George G; Freedman, David S; Selim Ünlü, M; Connor, John H

2017-01-01

This chapter describes an approach for the label-free imaging and quantification of intact Ebola virus (EBOV) and EBOV viruslike particles (VLPs) using a light microscopy technique. In this technique, individual virus particles are captured onto a silicon chip that has been printed with spots of virus-specific capture antibodies. These captured virions are then detected using an optical approach called interference reflectance imaging. This approach allows for the detection of each virus particle that is captured on an antibody spot and can resolve the filamentous structure of EBOV VLPs without the need for electron microscopy. Capture of VLPs and virions can be done from a variety of sample types ranging from tissue culture medium to blood. The technique also allows automated quantitative analysis of the number of virions captured. This can be used to identify the virus concentration in an unknown sample. In addition, this technique offers the opportunity to easily image virions captured from native solutions without the need for additional labeling approaches while offering a means of assessing the range of particle sizes and morphologies in a quantitative manner.

State of the art of environmentally friendly sample preparation approaches for determination of PBDEs and metabolites in environmental and biological samples: A critical review.

PubMed

Berton, Paula; Lana, Nerina B; Ríos, Juan M; García-Reyes, Juan F; Altamirano, Jorgelina C

2016-01-28

Green chemistry principles for developing methodologies have gained attention in analytical chemistry in recent decades. A growing number of analytical techniques have been proposed for determination of organic persistent pollutants in environmental and biological samples. In this light, the current review aims to present state-of-the-art sample preparation approaches based on green analytical principles proposed for the determination of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and metabolites (OH-PBDEs and MeO-PBDEs) in environmental and biological samples. Approaches to lower the solvent consumption and accelerate the extraction, such as pressurized liquid extraction, microwave-assisted extraction, and ultrasound-assisted extraction, are discussed in this review. Special attention is paid to miniaturized sample preparation methodologies and strategies proposed to reduce organic solvent consumption. Additionally, extraction techniques based on alternative solvents (surfactants, supercritical fluids, or ionic liquids) are also commented in this work, even though these are scarcely used for determination of PBDEs. In addition to liquid-based extraction techniques, solid-based analytical techniques are also addressed. The development of greener, faster and simpler sample preparation approaches has increased in recent years (2003-2013). Among green extraction techniques, those based on the liquid phase predominate over those based on the solid phase (71% vs. 29%, respectively). For solid samples, solvent assisted extraction techniques are preferred for leaching of PBDEs, and liquid phase microextraction techniques are mostly used for liquid samples. Likewise, green characteristics of the instrumental analysis used after the extraction and clean-up steps are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Frontobasal Midline Meningiomas: Is It Right To Shed Doubt on the Transcranial Approaches? Updates and Review of the Literature.

PubMed

Ruggeri, Andrea Gennaro; Cappelletti, Martina; Fazzolari, Benedetta; Marotta, Nicola; Delfini, Roberto

2016-04-01

Traditionally, the surgical removal of tuberculum sellae meningioma (TSM) and olfactory groove meningioma (OGM) requires transcranial approaches and microsurgical techniques, but in the last decade endoscopic expanded endonasal approaches have been introduced: transcribriform for OGMs and transtuberculum-transplanum for TSM. A comparative analysis of the literature concerning the two types of surgical treatment of OGMs and TSM is, however, difficult. We conducted a literature search using the PubMed database to compare data for endoscopic and microsurgical techniques in the literature. We also conducted a retrospective analysis of selected cases from our series presenting favorable characteristics for an endoscopic approach, based on the criteria of operability of these lesions as generally accepted in the literature, and we compared the results obtained in these patients with those in the endoscopic literature. We believe that making the sample more homogeneous, the difference between microsurgical technique and endoscopic technique is no longer so striking. A greater radical removal rate, a reduced incidence of cerebrospinal fluid fistula and, especially, the possibility of removing lesions of any size are advantages of transcranial surgery; a higher percentage of improvement in visual outcome and a lower risk of a worsening of a pre-existing deficit or onset of a new deficit are advantages of the endoscopic technique. At present, the microsurgical technique is still the gold standard for the removal of the anterior cranial fossa meningiomas of all sizes, and the endoscopic technique remains a second option in certain cases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Subgaleal Retention Sutures: Internal Pressure Dressing Technique for Dolenc Approach.

PubMed

Burrows, Anthony M; Rayan, Tarek; Van Gompel, Jamie J

2017-08-01

Extradural approach to the cavernous sinus, the "Dolenc" approach recognizing its developing Dr. Vinko Dolenc, is a critically important skull base approach. However, resection of the lateral wall of the cavernous sinus, most commonly for cavernous sinus meningiomas, results commonly in a defect that often cannot be reconstructed in a water-tight fashion. This may result in troublesome pseudomeningocele postoperatively. To describe a technique designed to mitigate the development of pseudomeningocele. We found the Dolenc approach critical for resection of cavernous lesions. However, a number of pseudomeningoceles were managed with prolonged external pressure wrapping in the early cohort. Therefore, we incorporated subgaleal to muscular sutures, which were designed to close this potential space and retrospectively analyzed our results. Twenty-one patients treated with a Dolenc approach and resection of the lateral wall of the cavernous sinus over a 2-year period were included. Prior to incorporation of this technique, 12 patients were treated and 3 (25%) experienced postoperative pseudomeningoceles requiring multiple clinic visits and frequent dressing. After incorporation of subgaleal retention sutures, no patient (0%) experienced this complication. Although basic, subgaleal to temporalis muscle retention sutures likely aid in eliminating this potential dead space, thereby preventing patient distress postoperatively. This technique is simple and further emphasizes the importance of dead space elimination in complex closures. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

The da Vinci robotic surgical assisted anterior lumbar interbody fusion: technical development and case report.

PubMed

Beutler, William J; Peppelman, Walter C; DiMarco, Luciano A

2013-02-15

Technique development to use the da Vince Robotic Surgical System for anterior lumbar interbody fusion at L5-S1 is detailed. A case report is also presented. To evaluate and develop the da Vinci robotic assisted laparoscopic anterior lumbar stand-alone interbody fusion procedure. Anterior lumbar interbody fusion is a common procedure associated with potential morbidity related to the surgical approach. The da Vinci robot provides intra-abdominal dissection and visualization advantages compared with the traditional open and laparoscopic approach. The surgical techniques for approach to the anterior lumbar spine using the da Vinci robot were developed and modified progressively beginning with operative models followed by placement of an interbody fusion cage in the living porcine model. Development continued to progress with placement of fusion cage in a human cadaver, completed first in the laboratory setting and then in the operating room. Finally, the first patient with fusion completed using the da Vinci robot-assisted approach is presented. The anterior transperitoneal approach to the lumbar spine is accomplished with enhanced visualization and dissection capability, with maintenance of pneumoperitoneum using the da Vinci robot. Blood loss is minimal. The visualization inside the disc space and surrounding structures was considered better than current open and laparoscopic techniques. The da Vinci robot Surgical System technique continues to develop and is now described for the transperitoneal approach to the anterior lumbar spine. 4.

Transretroperitoneal CT-guided Embolization of Growing Internal Iliac Artery Aneurysm after Repair of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: A Transretroperitoneal Approach with Intramuscular Lidocaine Injection Technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Joon Young, E-mail: pjy1331@hanmail.net; Kim, Shin Jung, E-mail: witdd2@hanmail.net; Kim, Hyoung Ook, E-mail: chaos821209@hanmail.net

This study was designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of CT-guided embolization of internal iliac artery aneurysm (IIAA) after repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm by transretroperitoneal approach using the lidocaine injection technique to iliacus muscle, making window for safe needle path for three patients for whom CT-guided embolization of IIAA was performed by transretroperitoneal approach with intramuscular lidocaine injection technique. Transretroperitoneal access to the IIAA was successful in all three patients. In all three patients, the IIAA was first embolized using microcoils. The aneurysmal sac was then embolized with glue and coils without complication. With a mean follow-up ofmore » 7 months, the volume of the IIAAs remained stable without residual endoleaks. Transretroperitoneal CT-guided embolization of IIAA using intramuscular lidocaine injection technique is effective, safe, and results in good outcome.« less

Iterative approach as alternative to S-matrix in modal methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenikhin, Igor; Zanuccoli, Mauro

2014-12-01

The continuously increasing complexity of opto-electronic devices and the rising demands of simulation accuracy lead to the need of solving very large systems of linear equations making iterative methods promising and attractive from the computational point of view with respect to direct methods. In particular, iterative approach potentially enables the reduction of required computational time to solve Maxwell's equations by Eigenmode Expansion algorithms. Regardless of the particular eigenmodes finding method used, the expansion coefficients are computed as a rule by scattering matrix (S-matrix) approach or similar techniques requiring order of M3 operations. In this work we consider alternatives to the S-matrix technique which are based on pure iterative or mixed direct-iterative approaches. The possibility to diminish the impact of M3 -order calculations to overall time and in some cases even to reduce the number of arithmetic operations to M2 by applying iterative techniques are discussed. Numerical results are illustrated to discuss validity and potentiality of the proposed approaches.

Narrow band imaging combined with water immersion technique in the diagnosis of celiac disease.

PubMed

Valitutti, Francesco; Oliva, Salvatore; Iorfida, Donatella; Aloi, Marina; Gatti, Silvia; Trovato, Chiara Maria; Montuori, Monica; Tiberti, Antonio; Cucchiara, Salvatore; Di Nardo, Giovanni

2014-12-01

The "multiple-biopsy" approach both in duodenum and bulb is the best strategy to confirm the diagnosis of celiac disease; however, this increases the invasiveness of the procedure itself and is time-consuming. To evaluate the diagnostic yield of a single biopsy guided by narrow-band imaging combined with water immersion technique in paediatric patients. Prospective assessment of the diagnostic accuracy of narrow-band imaging/water immersion technique-driven biopsy approach versus standard protocol in suspected celiac disease. The experimental approach correctly diagnosed 35/40 children with celiac disease, with an overall diagnostic sensitivity of 87.5% (95% CI: 77.3-97.7). An altered pattern of narrow-band imaging/water immersion technique endoscopic visualization was significantly associated with villous atrophy at guided biopsy (Spearman Rho 0.637, p<0.001). Concordance of narrow-band imaging/water immersion technique endoscopic assessments was high between two operators (K: 0.884). The experimental protocol was highly timesaving compared to the standard protocol. An altered narrow-band imaging/water immersion technique pattern coupled with high anti-transglutaminase antibodies could allow a single guided biopsy to diagnose celiac disease. When no altered mucosal pattern is visible even by narrow-band imaging/water immersion technique, multiple bulbar and duodenal biopsies should be obtained. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The suprapubic approach for laparoscopic appendectomy.

PubMed

Kollmar, O; Z'graggen, K; Schilling, M K; Buchholz, B M; Büchler, M W

2002-03-01

Because it produces superior cosmetic results, patients prefer laparoscopic appendectomy over open appendectomy. We developed two alternative laparoscopic routes of access to the abdominal cavity for appendectomy that use suprapubic incisions placed below the line of pubic hair. We then compared the results for these three different modes of access. Operative characteristics, morbidity, outcome, and patient preference regarding three different approaches to laparoscopic appendectomy were compared in a retrospective study. In addition, a group of 24 healthy women were surveyed by questionnaire about their preferred technique and expected cosmetic results. Between January 1997 and August 2000, 149 patients underwent laparoscopic appendectomy and were assigned to undergo one of the three techniques. Operative results, morbidity, and hospital stay were similar. Twenty-five percent of patients submitted to technique 1 (no suprapubic trocars) were satisfied with their method, vs 54% of patients with technique 2 (one suprapubic port, angled working trocars) and 100% of patients with technique 3 (two suprapubic parallel trocars). Almost all patients (92% of those who had technique 1 and 100% of those who had techniques 2 and 3) chose the standard laparoscopic access as the cosmetically least attractive method. All of the healthy controls we interviewed preferred technique 3. The placement of suprapubic trocars improves the surgeon's working position during laparoscopic appendectomy. A laparoscopic approach using two suprapubic trocars yields the best cosmetic results in the opinion of the majority of patients and healthy interviewees.

Input design for identification of aircraft stability and control derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, N. K.; Hall, W. E., Jr.

1975-01-01

An approach for designing inputs to identify stability and control derivatives from flight test data is presented. This approach is based on finding inputs which provide the maximum possible accuracy of derivative estimates. Two techniques of input specification are implemented for this objective - a time domain technique and a frequency domain technique. The time domain technique gives the control input time history and can be used for any allowable duration of test maneuver, including those where data lengths can only be of short duration. The frequency domain technique specifies the input frequency spectrum, and is best applied for tests where extended data lengths, much longer than the time constants of the modes of interest, are possible. These technqiues are used to design inputs to identify parameters in longitudinal and lateral linear models of conventional aircraft. The constraints of aircraft response limits, such as on structural loads, are realized indirectly through a total energy constraint on the input. Tests with simulated data and theoretical predictions show that the new approaches give input signals which can provide more accurate parameter estimates than can conventional inputs of the same total energy. Results obtained indicate that the approach has been brought to the point where it should be used on flight tests for further evaluation.

"Rendezvous in coronary" technique with the retrograde approach for chronic total occlusion.

PubMed

Muramatsu, Toshiya; Tsukahara, Reiko; Ito, Yoshiaki

2010-09-01

Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was performed for a chronic total occlusion (CTO) of the right coronary artery (RCA) in a 77-year-old male patient. A guidewire could not be passed through the vessel using the antegrade approach, so we tried the retrograde approach via a collateral septal channel. A Fielder FC guidewire (Asahi Intecc Co. Ltd., Aichi, Japan) was passed through the septal channel, and a Corsair catheter (Asahi Intecc) was advanced to the distal side of the CTO in the RCA. However, the guidewire could not be advanced from the false lumen to the true lumen using the kissing-wire technique (KWT) or the reverse controlled antegrade retrograde tracking (CART) technique. Therefore, we retracted the Corsair channel dilator for a #4PD and tried to advance the antegrade Conquest Pro guidewire (Asahi Intecc) from a straight subintimal site into the retrograde channel dilator catheter. After several attempts, the antegrade Conquest guidewire successfully entered the retrograde channel dilator catheter. Subsequently, a Cypher stent (Cordis Corp., Miami Lakes, Florida) was successfully placed. The "rendezvous in coronary" technique was useful for this CTO patient, in whom it was difficult to advance a guidewire into the true lumen by the KWT and CART techniques during the retrograde approach.

Orbitopterional Craniotomy Resection of Pediatric Suprasellar Craniopharyngioma.

PubMed

LeFever, Devon; Storey, Chris; Guthikonda, Bharat

2018-04-01

The orbitopterional approach provides an excellent combination of basal access and suprasellar access. This approach also allows for less brain retraction when resecting larger suprasellar tumors that are more superiorly projecting due to a more frontal and inferior trajectory. In this operative video, the authors thoroughly detail an orbitopterional craniotomy utilizing a one-piece modified orbitozygomatic technique. This technique involves opening the craniotomy through a standard pterional incision. The craniotomy is performed using the standard three burr holes of a pterional approach; however, the osteotomy is extended anteriorly through the frontal process of the zygomatic bone as well as through the supraorbital rim. In this operative video atlas, the authors illustrate the operative anatomy, as well as surgical strategy and techniques to resect a large suprasellar craniopharyngioma in a 4-year-old male. Other reasonable approach options for a lesion of this size would include a standard pterional approach, a supraorbital approach, or expanded endoscopic transsphenoidal approach. The lesion was quite high and thus, the supraorbital approach may confine access to the superior portion of the tumor. While recognizing that some groups may have chosen the endoscopic expanded transsphenoidal approach for this lesion, the authors describe more confidence in achieving the goal of a safe and maximal resection with the orbitopterional approach. The link to the video can be found at: https://youtu.be/eznsK16BzR8 .

Estimating Crop Growth Stage by Combining Meteorological and Remote Sensing Based Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champagne, C.; Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; Davidson, A. M.; Chipanshi, A.; Zhang, Y.; Shang, J.

2016-12-01

Estimations of seeding, harvest and phenological growth stage of crops are important sources of information for monitoring crop progress and crop yield forecasting. Growth stage has been traditionally estimated at the regional level through surveys, which rely on field staff to collect the information. Automated techniques to estimate growth stage have included agrometeorological approaches that use temperature and day length information to estimate accumulated heat and photoperiod, with thresholds used to determine when these stages are most likely. These approaches however, are crop and hybrid dependent, and can give widely varying results depending on the method used, particularly if the seeding date is unknown. Methods to estimate growth stage from remote sensing have progressed greatly in the past decade, with time series information from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) the most common approach. Time series NDVI provide information on growth stage through a variety of techniques, including fitting functions to a series of measured NDVI values or smoothing these values and using thresholds to detect changes in slope that are indicative of rapidly increasing or decreasing `greeness' in the vegetation cover. The key limitations of these techniques for agriculture are frequent cloud cover in optical data that lead to errors in estimating local features in the time series function, and the incongruity between changes in greenness and traditional agricultural growth stages. There is great potential to combine both meteorological approaches and remote sensing to overcome the limitations of each technique. This research will examine the accuracy of both meteorological and remote sensing approaches over several agricultural sites in Canada, and look at the potential to integrate these techniques to provide improved estimates of crop growth stage for common field crops.

Use of partial dissolution techniques in geochemical exploration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chao, T.T.

1984-01-01

Application of partial dissolution techniques to geochemical exploration has advanced from an early empirical approach to an approach based on sound geochemical principles. This advance assures a prominent future position for the use of these techniques in geochemical exploration for concealed mineral deposits. Partial dissolution techniques are classified as single dissolution or sequential multiple dissolution depending on the number of steps taken in the procedure, or as "nonselective" extraction and as "selective" extraction in terms of the relative specificity of the extraction. The choice of dissolution techniques for use in geochemical exploration is dictated by the geology of the area, the type and degree of weathering, and the expected chemical forms of the ore and of the pathfinding elements. Case histories have illustrated many instances where partial dissolution techniques exhibit advantages over conventional methods of chemical analysis used in geochemical exploration. ?? 1984.

The edge of chaos: A nonlinear view of psychoanalytic technique.

PubMed

Galatzer-Levy, Robert M

2016-04-01

The field of nonlinear dynamics (or chaos theory) provides ways to expand concepts of psychoanalytic process that have implications for the technique of psychoanalysis. This paper describes how concepts of "the edge of chaos," emergence, attractors, and coupled oscillators can help shape analytic technique resulting in an approach to doing analysis which is at the same time freer and more firmly based in an enlarged understanding of the ways in which psychoanalysis works than some current recommendation about technique. Illustrations from a lengthy analysis of an analysand with obsessive-compulsive disorder show this approach in action. Copyright © 2016 Institute of Psychoanalysis.

Traditional versus rule-based programming techniques: Application to the control of optional flight information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Wendell R.; Abbott, Kathy H.

1987-01-01

To the software design community, the concern over the costs associated with a program's execution time and implementation is great. It is always desirable, and sometimes imperative, that the proper programming technique is chosen which minimizes all costs for a given application or type of application. A study is described that compared cost-related factors associated with traditional programming techniques to rule-based programming techniques for a specific application. The results of this study favored the traditional approach regarding execution efficiency, but favored the rule-based approach regarding programmer productivity (implementation ease). Although this study examined a specific application, the results should be widely applicable.

Orbiter/payload proximity operations SES Postsim report. Lateral approach and other techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olszewski, O.

1978-01-01

Various approach and stationkeeping simulations (proximity operations) were conducted in the Shuttle engineering simulator (SES). This simulator is the first to dynamically include the Orbiter reaction control system (RCS) plume effects on a payload being recovered after rendezvous operations. A procedure for braking, using the simultaneous firing of both jets, was evaluated and found very useful for proximity operations. However this procedure is very inefficient in the RCS usage and requires modifications to the digital autopilot (DAP) software. A new final approach, the lateral approach technique (LAT), or the momentum vector proximity approach, was also evaluated in the simulations. The LAT, which included a tailfirst approach for braking, was evaluated successfully with both inertial and gravity stabilized payloads.