The Efficiency of Split Panel Designs in an Analysis of Variance Model

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei-Guo; Liu, Hai-Jun

2016-01-01

We consider split panel design efficiency in analysis of variance models, that is, the determination of the cross-sections series optimal proportion in all samples, to minimize parametric best linear unbiased estimators of linear combination variances. An orthogonal matrix is constructed to obtain manageable expression of variances. On this basis, we derive a theorem for analyzing split panel design efficiency irrespective of interest and budget parameters. Additionally, relative estimator efficiency based on the split panel to an estimator based on a pure panel or a pure cross-section is present. The analysis shows that the gains from split panel can be quite substantial. We further consider the efficiency of split panel design, given a budget, and transform it to a constrained nonlinear integer programming. Specifically, an efficient algorithm is designed to solve the constrained nonlinear integer programming. Moreover, we combine one at time designs and factorial designs to illustrate the algorithm’s efficiency with an empirical example concerning monthly consumer expenditure on food in 1985, in the Netherlands, and the efficient ranges of the algorithm parameters are given to ensure a good solution. PMID:27163447

Optimal design criteria - prediction vs. parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldl, Helmut

2014-05-01

G-optimality is a popular design criterion for optimal prediction, it tries to minimize the kriging variance over the whole design region. A G-optimal design minimizes the maximum variance of all predicted values. If we use kriging methods for prediction it is self-evident to use the kriging variance as a measure of uncertainty for the estimates. Though the computation of the kriging variance and even more the computation of the empirical kriging variance is computationally very costly and finding the maximum kriging variance in high-dimensional regions can be time demanding such that we cannot really find the G-optimal design with nowadays available computer equipment in practice. We cannot always avoid this problem by using space-filling designs because small designs that minimize the empirical kriging variance are often non-space-filling. D-optimality is the design criterion related to parameter estimation. A D-optimal design maximizes the determinant of the information matrix of the estimates. D-optimality in terms of trend parameter estimation and D-optimality in terms of covariance parameter estimation yield basically different designs. The Pareto frontier of these two competing determinant criteria corresponds with designs that perform well under both criteria. Under certain conditions searching the G-optimal design on the above Pareto frontier yields almost as good results as searching the G-optimal design in the whole design region. In doing so the maximum of the empirical kriging variance has to be computed only a few times though. The method is demonstrated by means of a computer simulation experiment based on data provided by the Belgian institute Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models (MUMM) that describe the evolution of inorganic and organic carbon and nutrients, phytoplankton, bacteria and zooplankton in the Southern Bight of the North Sea.

Sample size calculation for studies with grouped survival data.

PubMed

Li, Zhiguo; Wang, Xiaofei; Wu, Yuan; Owzar, Kouros

2018-06-10

Grouped survival data arise often in studies where the disease status is assessed at regular visits to clinic. The time to the event of interest can only be determined to be between two adjacent visits or is right censored at one visit. In data analysis, replacing the survival time with the endpoint or midpoint of the grouping interval leads to biased estimators of the effect size in group comparisons. Prentice and Gloeckler developed a maximum likelihood estimator for the proportional hazards model with grouped survival data and the method has been widely applied. Previous work on sample size calculation for designing studies with grouped data is based on either the exponential distribution assumption or the approximation of variance under the alternative with variance under the null. Motivated by studies in HIV trials, cancer trials and in vitro experiments to study drug toxicity, we develop a sample size formula for studies with grouped survival endpoints that use the method of Prentice and Gloeckler for comparing two arms under the proportional hazards assumption. We do not impose any distributional assumptions, nor do we use any approximation of variance of the test statistic. The sample size formula only requires estimates of the hazard ratio and survival probabilities of the event time of interest and the censoring time at the endpoints of the grouping intervals for one of the two arms. The formula is shown to perform well in a simulation study and its application is illustrated in the three motivating examples. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

New heterogeneous test statistics for the unbalanced fixed-effect nested design.

PubMed

Guo, Jiin-Huarng; Billard, L; Luh, Wei-Ming

2011-05-01

When the underlying variances are unknown or/and unequal, using the conventional F test is problematic in the two-factor hierarchical data structure. Prompted by the approximate test statistics (Welch and Alexander-Govern methods), the authors develop four new heterogeneous test statistics to test factor A and factor B nested within A for the unbalanced fixed-effect two-stage nested design under variance heterogeneity. The actual significance levels and statistical power of the test statistics were compared in a simulation study. The results show that the proposed procedures maintain better Type I error rate control and have greater statistical power than those obtained by the conventional F test in various conditions. Therefore, the proposed test statistics are recommended in terms of robustness and easy implementation. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Recovering task fMRI signals from highly under-sampled data with low-rank and temporal subspace constraints.

PubMed

Chiew, Mark; Graedel, Nadine N; Miller, Karla L

2018-07-01

Recent developments in highly accelerated fMRI data acquisition have employed low-rank and/or sparsity constraints for image reconstruction, as an alternative to conventional, time-independent parallel imaging. When under-sampling factors are high or the signals of interest are low-variance, however, functional data recovery can be poor or incomplete. We introduce a method for improving reconstruction fidelity using external constraints, like an experimental design matrix, to partially orient the estimated fMRI temporal subspace. Combining these external constraints with low-rank constraints introduces a new image reconstruction model that is analogous to using a mixture of subspace-decomposition (PCA/ICA) and regression (GLM) models in fMRI analysis. We show that this approach improves fMRI reconstruction quality in simulations and experimental data, focusing on the model problem of detecting subtle 1-s latency shifts between brain regions in a block-design task-fMRI experiment. Successful latency discrimination is shown at acceleration factors up to R = 16 in a radial-Cartesian acquisition. We show that this approach works with approximate, or not perfectly informative constraints, where the derived benefit is commensurate with the information content contained in the constraints. The proposed method extends low-rank approximation methods for under-sampled fMRI data acquisition by leveraging knowledge of expected task-based variance in the data, enabling improvements in the speed and efficiency of fMRI data acquisition without the loss of subtle features. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding and comparisons of different sampling approaches for the Fourier Amplitudes Sensitivity Test (FAST)

PubMed Central

Xu, Chonggang; Gertner, George

2013-01-01

Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is one of the most popular uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques. It uses a periodic sampling approach and a Fourier transformation to decompose the variance of a model output into partial variances contributed by different model parameters. Until now, the FAST analysis is mainly confined to the estimation of partial variances contributed by the main effects of model parameters, but does not allow for those contributed by specific interactions among parameters. In this paper, we theoretically show that FAST analysis can be used to estimate partial variances contributed by both main effects and interaction effects of model parameters using different sampling approaches (i.e., traditional search-curve based sampling, simple random sampling and random balance design sampling). We also analytically calculate the potential errors and biases in the estimation of partial variances. Hypothesis tests are constructed to reduce the effect of sampling errors on the estimation of partial variances. Our results show that compared to simple random sampling and random balance design sampling, sensitivity indices (ratios of partial variances to variance of a specific model output) estimated by search-curve based sampling generally have higher precision but larger underestimations. Compared to simple random sampling, random balance design sampling generally provides higher estimation precision for partial variances contributed by the main effects of parameters. The theoretical derivation of partial variances contributed by higher-order interactions and the calculation of their corresponding estimation errors in different sampling schemes can help us better understand the FAST method and provide a fundamental basis for FAST applications and further improvements. PMID:24143037

Understanding and comparisons of different sampling approaches for the Fourier Amplitudes Sensitivity Test (FAST).

PubMed

Xu, Chonggang; Gertner, George

2011-01-01

Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is one of the most popular uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques. It uses a periodic sampling approach and a Fourier transformation to decompose the variance of a model output into partial variances contributed by different model parameters. Until now, the FAST analysis is mainly confined to the estimation of partial variances contributed by the main effects of model parameters, but does not allow for those contributed by specific interactions among parameters. In this paper, we theoretically show that FAST analysis can be used to estimate partial variances contributed by both main effects and interaction effects of model parameters using different sampling approaches (i.e., traditional search-curve based sampling, simple random sampling and random balance design sampling). We also analytically calculate the potential errors and biases in the estimation of partial variances. Hypothesis tests are constructed to reduce the effect of sampling errors on the estimation of partial variances. Our results show that compared to simple random sampling and random balance design sampling, sensitivity indices (ratios of partial variances to variance of a specific model output) estimated by search-curve based sampling generally have higher precision but larger underestimations. Compared to simple random sampling, random balance design sampling generally provides higher estimation precision for partial variances contributed by the main effects of parameters. The theoretical derivation of partial variances contributed by higher-order interactions and the calculation of their corresponding estimation errors in different sampling schemes can help us better understand the FAST method and provide a fundamental basis for FAST applications and further improvements.

Blinded sample size re-estimation in three-arm trials with 'gold standard' design.

PubMed

Mütze, Tobias; Friede, Tim

2017-10-15

In this article, we study blinded sample size re-estimation in the 'gold standard' design with internal pilot study for normally distributed outcomes. The 'gold standard' design is a three-arm clinical trial design that includes an active and a placebo control in addition to an experimental treatment. We focus on the absolute margin approach to hypothesis testing in three-arm trials at which the non-inferiority of the experimental treatment and the assay sensitivity are assessed by pairwise comparisons. We compare several blinded sample size re-estimation procedures in a simulation study assessing operating characteristics including power and type I error. We find that sample size re-estimation based on the popular one-sample variance estimator results in overpowered trials. Moreover, sample size re-estimation based on unbiased variance estimators such as the Xing-Ganju variance estimator results in underpowered trials, as it is expected because an overestimation of the variance and thus the sample size is in general required for the re-estimation procedure to eventually meet the target power. To overcome this problem, we propose an inflation factor for the sample size re-estimation with the Xing-Ganju variance estimator and show that this approach results in adequately powered trials. Because of favorable features of the Xing-Ganju variance estimator such as unbiasedness and a distribution independent of the group means, the inflation factor does not depend on the nuisance parameter and, therefore, can be calculated prior to a trial. Moreover, we prove that the sample size re-estimation based on the Xing-Ganju variance estimator does not bias the effect estimate. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An improved multilevel Monte Carlo method for estimating probability distribution functions in stochastic oil reservoir simulations

DOE PAGES

Lu, Dan; Zhang, Guannan; Webster, Clayton G.; ...

2016-12-30

In this paper, we develop an improved multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for estimating cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of a quantity of interest, coming from numerical approximation of large-scale stochastic subsurface simulations. Compared with Monte Carlo (MC) methods, that require a significantly large number of high-fidelity model executions to achieve a prescribed accuracy when computing statistical expectations, MLMC methods were originally proposed to significantly reduce the computational cost with the use of multifidelity approximations. The improved performance of the MLMC methods depends strongly on the decay of the variance of the integrand as the level increases. However, the main challengemore » in estimating CDFs is that the integrand is a discontinuous indicator function whose variance decays slowly. To address this difficult task, we approximate the integrand using a smoothing function that accelerates the decay of the variance. In addition, we design a novel a posteriori optimization strategy to calibrate the smoothing function, so as to balance the computational gain and the approximation error. The combined proposed techniques are integrated into a very general and practical algorithm that can be applied to a wide range of subsurface problems for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification, such as a fine-grid oil reservoir model considered in this effort. The numerical results reveal that with the use of the calibrated smoothing function, the improved MLMC technique significantly reduces the computational complexity compared to the standard MC approach. Finally, we discuss several factors that affect the performance of the MLMC method and provide guidance for effective and efficient usage in practice.« less

Conjugate-gradient preconditioning methods for shift-variant PET image reconstruction.

PubMed

Fessler, J A; Booth, S D

1999-01-01

Gradient-based iterative methods often converge slowly for tomographic image reconstruction and image restoration problems, but can be accelerated by suitable preconditioners. Diagonal preconditioners offer some improvement in convergence rate, but do not incorporate the structure of the Hessian matrices in imaging problems. Circulant preconditioners can provide remarkable acceleration for inverse problems that are approximately shift-invariant, i.e., for those with approximately block-Toeplitz or block-circulant Hessians. However, in applications with nonuniform noise variance, such as arises from Poisson statistics in emission tomography and in quantum-limited optical imaging, the Hessian of the weighted least-squares objective function is quite shift-variant, and circulant preconditioners perform poorly. Additional shift-variance is caused by edge-preserving regularization methods based on nonquadratic penalty functions. This paper describes new preconditioners that approximate more accurately the Hessian matrices of shift-variant imaging problems. Compared to diagonal or circulant preconditioning, the new preconditioners lead to significantly faster convergence rates for the unconstrained conjugate-gradient (CG) iteration. We also propose a new efficient method for the line-search step required by CG methods. Applications to positron emission tomography (PET) illustrate the method.

An update on modeling dose-response relationships: Accounting for correlated data structure and heterogeneous error variance in linear and nonlinear mixed models.

PubMed

Gonçalves, M A D; Bello, N M; Dritz, S S; Tokach, M D; DeRouchey, J M; Woodworth, J C; Goodband, R D

2016-05-01

Advanced methods for dose-response assessments are used to estimate the minimum concentrations of a nutrient that maximizes a given outcome of interest, thereby determining nutritional requirements for optimal performance. Contrary to standard modeling assumptions, experimental data often present a design structure that includes correlations between observations (i.e., blocking, nesting, etc.) as well as heterogeneity of error variances; either can mislead inference if disregarded. Our objective is to demonstrate practical implementation of linear and nonlinear mixed models for dose-response relationships accounting for correlated data structure and heterogeneous error variances. To illustrate, we modeled data from a randomized complete block design study to evaluate the standardized ileal digestible (SID) Trp:Lys ratio dose-response on G:F of nursery pigs. A base linear mixed model was fitted to explore the functional form of G:F relative to Trp:Lys ratios and assess model assumptions. Next, we fitted 3 competing dose-response mixed models to G:F, namely a quadratic polynomial (QP) model, a broken-line linear (BLL) ascending model, and a broken-line quadratic (BLQ) ascending model, all of which included heteroskedastic specifications, as dictated by the base model. The GLIMMIX procedure of SAS (version 9.4) was used to fit the base and QP models and the NLMIXED procedure was used to fit the BLL and BLQ models. We further illustrated the use of a grid search of initial parameter values to facilitate convergence and parameter estimation in nonlinear mixed models. Fit between competing dose-response models was compared using a maximum likelihood-based Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The QP, BLL, and BLQ models fitted on G:F of nursery pigs yielded BIC values of 353.7, 343.4, and 345.2, respectively, thus indicating a better fit of the BLL model. The BLL breakpoint estimate of the SID Trp:Lys ratio was 16.5% (95% confidence interval [16.1, 17.0]). Problems with the estimation process rendered results from the BLQ model questionable. Importantly, accounting for heterogeneous variance enhanced inferential precision as the breadth of the confidence interval for the mean breakpoint decreased by approximately 44%. In summary, the article illustrates the use of linear and nonlinear mixed models for dose-response relationships accounting for heterogeneous residual variances, discusses important diagnostics and their implications for inference, and provides practical recommendations for computational troubleshooting.

Global Distributions of Temperature Variances At Different Stratospheric Altitudes From Gps/met Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, N. M.; Karpova, N. V.; Jacobi, Ch.

The GPS/MET measurements at altitudes 5 - 35 km are used to obtain global distribu- tions of small-scale temperature variances at different stratospheric altitudes. Individ- ual temperature profiles are smoothed using second order polynomial approximations in 5 - 7 km thick layers centered at 10, 20 and 30 km. Temperature inclinations from the averaged values and their variances obtained for each profile are averaged for each month of year during the GPS/MET experiment. Global distributions of temperature variances have inhomogeneous structure. Locations and latitude distributions of the maxima and minima of the variances depend on altitudes and season. One of the rea- sons for the small-scale temperature perturbations in the stratosphere could be internal gravity waves (IGWs). Some assumptions are made about peculiarities of IGW gener- ation and propagation in the tropo-stratosphere based on the results of GPS/MET data analysis.

Estimation of genetic connectedness diagnostics based on prediction errors without the prediction error variance-covariance matrix.

PubMed

Holmes, John B; Dodds, Ken G; Lee, Michael A

2017-03-02

An important issue in genetic evaluation is the comparability of random effects (breeding values), particularly between pairs of animals in different contemporary groups. This is usually referred to as genetic connectedness. While various measures of connectedness have been proposed in the literature, there is general agreement that the most appropriate measure is some function of the prediction error variance-covariance matrix. However, obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix is computationally demanding for large-scale genetic evaluations. Many alternative statistics have been proposed that avoid the computational cost of obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix, such as counts of genetic links between contemporary groups, gene flow matrices, and functions of the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects. In this paper, we show that a correction to the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects will produce the exact prediction error variance-covariance matrix averaged by contemporary group for univariate models in the presence of single or multiple fixed effects and one random effect. We demonstrate the correction for a series of models and show that approximations to the prediction error matrix based solely on the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects are inappropriate in certain circumstances. Our method allows for the calculation of a connectedness measure based on the prediction error variance-covariance matrix by calculating only the variance-covariance matrix of estimated fixed effects. Since the number of fixed effects in genetic evaluation is usually orders of magnitudes smaller than the number of random effect levels, the computational requirements for our method should be reduced.

Psychometric support of the school climate measure in a large, diverse sample of adolescents: a replication and extension.

PubMed

Zullig, Keith J; Collins, Rani; Ghani, Nadia; Patton, Jon M; Scott Huebner, E; Ajamie, Jean

2014-02-01

The School Climate Measure (SCM) was developed and validated in 2010 in response to a dearth of psychometrically sound school climate instruments. This study sought to further validate the SCM on a large, diverse sample of Arizona public school adolescents (N = 20,953). Four SCM domains (positive student-teacher relationships, academic support, order and discipline, and physical environment) were available for the analysis. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling were established to construct validity, and criterion-related validity was assessed via selected Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) school safety items and self-reported grade (GPA) point average. Analyses confirmed the 4 SCM school climate domains explained approximately 63% of the variance (factor loading range .45-.92). Structural equation models fit the data well χ(2) = 14,325 (df = 293, p < .001), comparative fit index (CFI) = .951, Tuker-Lewis index (TLI) = .952, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = .05). The goodness-of-fit index was .940. Coefficient alphas ranged from .82 to .93. Analyses of variance with post hoc comparisons suggested the SCM domains related in hypothesized directions with the school safety items and GPA. Additional evidence supports the validity and reliability of the SCM. Measures, such as the SCM, can facilitate data-driven decisions and may be incorporated into evidenced-based processes designed to improve student outcomes. © 2014, American School Health Association.

Concerns about a variance approach to X-ray diffractometric estimation of microfibril angle in wood

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; David E. Kretschmann; Victoria L. Herian; Michael C. Wiemann; Harry A. Alden

2011-01-01

In this article, we raise three technical concerns about Evans’ 1999 Appita Journal “variance approach” to estimating microfibril angle (MFA). The first concern is associated with the approximation of the variance of an X-ray intensity half-profile by a function of the MFA and the natural variability of the MFA. The second concern is associated with the approximation...

Influence function based variance estimation and missing data issues in case-cohort studies.

PubMed

Mark, S D; Katki, H

2001-12-01

Recognizing that the efficiency in relative risk estimation for the Cox proportional hazards model is largely constrained by the total number of cases, Prentice (1986) proposed the case-cohort design in which covariates are measured on all cases and on a random sample of the cohort. Subsequent to Prentice, other methods of estimation and sampling have been proposed for these designs. We formalize an approach to variance estimation suggested by Barlow (1994), and derive a robust variance estimator based on the influence function. We consider the applicability of the variance estimator to all the proposed case-cohort estimators, and derive the influence function when known sampling probabilities in the estimators are replaced by observed sampling fractions. We discuss the modifications required when cases are missing covariate information. The missingness may occur by chance, and be completely at random; or may occur as part of the sampling design, and depend upon other observed covariates. We provide an adaptation of S-plus code that allows estimating influence function variances in the presence of such missing covariates. Using examples from our current case-cohort studies on esophageal and gastric cancer, we illustrate how our results our useful in solving design and analytic issues that arise in practice.

Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

PubMed Central

Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

2006-01-01

Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

Variance approximations for assessments of classification accuracy

Treesearch

R. L. Czaplewski

1994-01-01

Variance approximations are derived for the weighted and unweighted kappa statistics, the conditional kappa statistic, and conditional probabilities. These statistics are useful to assess classification accuracy, such as accuracy of remotely sensed classifications in thematic maps when compared to a sample of reference classifications made in the field. Published...

On the multiple imputation variance estimator for control-based and delta-adjusted pattern mixture models.

PubMed

Tang, Yongqiang

2017-12-01

Control-based pattern mixture models (PMM) and delta-adjusted PMMs are commonly used as sensitivity analyses in clinical trials with non-ignorable dropout. These PMMs assume that the statistical behavior of outcomes varies by pattern in the experimental arm in the imputation procedure, but the imputed data are typically analyzed by a standard method such as the primary analysis model. In the multiple imputation (MI) inference, Rubin's variance estimator is generally biased when the imputation and analysis models are uncongenial. One objective of the article is to quantify the bias of Rubin's variance estimator in the control-based and delta-adjusted PMMs for longitudinal continuous outcomes. These PMMs assume the same observed data distribution as the mixed effects model for repeated measures (MMRM). We derive analytic expressions for the MI treatment effect estimator and the associated Rubin's variance in these PMMs and MMRM as functions of the maximum likelihood estimator from the MMRM analysis and the observed proportion of subjects in each dropout pattern when the number of imputations is infinite. The asymptotic bias is generally small or negligible in the delta-adjusted PMM, but can be sizable in the control-based PMM. This indicates that the inference based on Rubin's rule is approximately valid in the delta-adjusted PMM. A simple variance estimator is proposed to ensure asymptotically valid MI inferences in these PMMs, and compared with the bootstrap variance. The proposed method is illustrated by the analysis of an antidepressant trial, and its performance is further evaluated via a simulation study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

DAKOTA Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Eldred, Michael S.

2010-02-24

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes (computational models) and iterative analysis methods. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and analysis of computational models on high performance computers.A user provides a set of DAKOTA commands in an input file and launches DAKOTA. DAKOTA invokes instances of the computational models, collects their results, and performs systems analyses. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-basedmore » methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, polynomial chaos, stochastic collocation, and epistemic methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as hybrid optimization, surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. Services for parallel computing, simulation interfacing, approximation modeling, fault tolerance, restart, and graphics are also included.« less

A close examination of double filtering with fold change and t test in microarray analysis

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Many researchers use the double filtering procedure with fold change and t test to identify differentially expressed genes, in the hope that the double filtering will provide extra confidence in the results. Due to its simplicity, the double filtering procedure has been popular with applied researchers despite the development of more sophisticated methods. Results This paper, for the first time to our knowledge, provides theoretical insight on the drawback of the double filtering procedure. We show that fold change assumes all genes to have a common variance while t statistic assumes gene-specific variances. The two statistics are based on contradicting assumptions. Under the assumption that gene variances arise from a mixture of a common variance and gene-specific variances, we develop the theoretically most powerful likelihood ratio test statistic. We further demonstrate that the posterior inference based on a Bayesian mixture model and the widely used significance analysis of microarrays (SAM) statistic are better approximations to the likelihood ratio test than the double filtering procedure. Conclusion We demonstrate through hypothesis testing theory, simulation studies and real data examples, that well constructed shrinkage testing methods, which can be united under the mixture gene variance assumption, can considerably outperform the double filtering procedure. PMID:19995439

A Simple Method for Deriving the Confidence Regions for the Penalized Cox’s Model via the Minimand Perturbation†

PubMed Central

Lin, Chen-Yen; Halabi, Susan

2017-01-01

We propose a minimand perturbation method to derive the confidence regions for the regularized estimators for the Cox’s proportional hazards model. Although the regularized estimation procedure produces a more stable point estimate, it remains challenging to provide an interval estimator or an analytic variance estimator for the associated point estimate. Based on the sandwich formula, the current variance estimator provides a simple approximation, but its finite sample performance is not entirely satisfactory. Besides, the sandwich formula can only provide variance estimates for the non-zero coefficients. In this article, we present a generic description for the perturbation method and then introduce a computation algorithm using the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method can better approximate the limiting distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator and produces more accurate inference compared with the sandwich formula. The simulation results also indicate the possibility of extending the applications to the adaptive elastic-net penalty. We further demonstrate our method using data from a phase III clinical trial in prostate cancer. PMID:29326496

A Simple Method for Deriving the Confidence Regions for the Penalized Cox's Model via the Minimand Perturbation.

PubMed

Lin, Chen-Yen; Halabi, Susan

2017-01-01

We propose a minimand perturbation method to derive the confidence regions for the regularized estimators for the Cox's proportional hazards model. Although the regularized estimation procedure produces a more stable point estimate, it remains challenging to provide an interval estimator or an analytic variance estimator for the associated point estimate. Based on the sandwich formula, the current variance estimator provides a simple approximation, but its finite sample performance is not entirely satisfactory. Besides, the sandwich formula can only provide variance estimates for the non-zero coefficients. In this article, we present a generic description for the perturbation method and then introduce a computation algorithm using the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method can better approximate the limiting distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator and produces more accurate inference compared with the sandwich formula. The simulation results also indicate the possibility of extending the applications to the adaptive elastic-net penalty. We further demonstrate our method using data from a phase III clinical trial in prostate cancer.

On the Likely Utility of Hybrid Weights Optimized for Variances in Hybrid Error Covariance Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satterfield, E.; Hodyss, D.; Kuhl, D.; Bishop, C. H.

2017-12-01

Because of imperfections in ensemble data assimilation schemes, one cannot assume that the ensemble covariance is equal to the true error covariance of a forecast. Previous work demonstrated how information about the distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance can be revealed from an archive of (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs. Here, we derive a simple and intuitively compelling formula to obtain the mean of this distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance from (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs produced by a single run of a data assimilation system. This formula takes the form of a Hybrid weighted average of the climatological forecast error variance and the ensemble sample variance. Here, we test the extent to which these readily obtainable weights can be used to rapidly optimize the covariance weights used in Hybrid data assimilation systems that employ weighted averages of static covariance models and flow-dependent ensemble based covariance models. Univariate data assimilation and multi-variate cycling ensemble data assimilation are considered. In both cases, it is found that our computationally efficient formula gives Hybrid weights that closely approximate the optimal weights found through the simple but computationally expensive process of testing every plausible combination of weights.

A new stratification of mourning dove call-count routes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blankenship, L.H.; Humphrey, A.B.; MacDonald, D.

1971-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaidura macroura) call-count survey is a nationwide audio-census of breeding mourning doves. Recent analyses of the call-count routes have utilized a stratification based upon physiographic regions of the United States. An analysis of 5 years of call-count data, based upon stratification using potential natural vegetation, has demonstrated that this uew stratification results in strata with greater homogeneity than the physiographic strata, provides lower error variance, and hence generates greatet precision in the analysis without an increase in call-count routes. Error variance was reduced approximately 30 percent for the contiguous United States. This indicates that future analysis based upon the new stratification will result in an increased ability to detect significant year-to-year changes.

Multiobjective sampling design for parameter estimation and model discrimination in groundwater solute transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

1989-01-01

Sampling design for site characterization studies of solute transport in porous media is formulated as a multiobjective problem. Optimal design of a sampling network is a sequential process in which the next phase of sampling is designed on the basis of all available physical knowledge of the system. Three objectives are considered: model discrimination, parameter estimation, and cost minimization. For the first two objectives, physically based measures of the value of information obtained from a set of observations are specified. In model discrimination, value of information of an observation point is measured in terms of the difference in solute concentration predicted by hypothesized models of transport. Points of greatest difference in predictions can contribute the most information to the discriminatory power of a sampling design. Sensitivity of solute concentration to a change in a parameter contributes information on the relative variance of a parameter estimate. Inclusion of points in a sampling design with high sensitivities to parameters tends to reduce variance in parameter estimates. Cost minimization accounts for both the capital cost of well installation and the operating costs of collection and analysis of field samples. Sensitivities, discrimination information, and well installation and sampling costs are used to form coefficients in the multiobjective problem in which the decision variables are binary (zero/one), each corresponding to the selection of an observation point in time and space. The solution to the multiobjective problem is a noninferior set of designs. To gain insight into effective design strategies, a one-dimensional solute transport problem is hypothesized. Then, an approximation of the noninferior set is found by enumerating 120 designs and evaluating objective functions for each of the designs. Trade-offs between pairs of objectives are demonstrated among the models. The value of an objective function for a given design is shown to correspond to the ability of a design to actually meet an objective.

flowVS: channel-specific variance stabilization in flow cytometry.

PubMed

Azad, Ariful; Rajwa, Bartek; Pothen, Alex

2016-07-28

Comparing phenotypes of heterogeneous cell populations from multiple biological conditions is at the heart of scientific discovery based on flow cytometry (FC). When the biological signal is measured by the average expression of a biomarker, standard statistical methods require that variance be approximately stabilized in populations to be compared. Since the mean and variance of a cell population are often correlated in fluorescence-based FC measurements, a preprocessing step is needed to stabilize the within-population variances. We present a variance-stabilization algorithm, called flowVS, that removes the mean-variance correlations from cell populations identified in each fluorescence channel. flowVS transforms each channel from all samples of a data set by the inverse hyperbolic sine (asinh) transformation. For each channel, the parameters of the transformation are optimally selected by Bartlett's likelihood-ratio test so that the populations attain homogeneous variances. The optimum parameters are then used to transform the corresponding channels in every sample. flowVS is therefore an explicit variance-stabilization method that stabilizes within-population variances in each channel by evaluating the homoskedasticity of clusters with a likelihood-ratio test. With two publicly available datasets, we show that flowVS removes the mean-variance dependence from raw FC data and makes the within-population variance relatively homogeneous. We demonstrate that alternative transformation techniques such as flowTrans, flowScape, logicle, and FCSTrans might not stabilize variance. Besides flow cytometry, flowVS can also be applied to stabilize variance in microarray data. With a publicly available data set we demonstrate that flowVS performs as well as the VSN software, a state-of-the-art approach developed for microarrays. The homogeneity of variance in cell populations across FC samples is desirable when extracting features uniformly and comparing cell populations with different levels of marker expressions. The newly developed flowVS algorithm solves the variance-stabilization problem in FC and microarrays by optimally transforming data with the help of Bartlett's likelihood-ratio test. On two publicly available FC datasets, flowVS stabilizes within-population variances more evenly than the available transformation and normalization techniques. flowVS-based variance stabilization can help in performing comparison and alignment of phenotypically identical cell populations across different samples. flowVS and the datasets used in this paper are publicly available in Bioconductor.

A comparison of two estimates of standard error for a ratio-of-means estimator for a mapped-plot sample design in southeast Alaska.

Treesearch

Willem W.S. van Hees

2002-01-01

Comparisons of estimated standard error for a ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator are presented for forest resource inventories conducted in southeast Alaska between 1995 and 2000. Estimated standard errors for the ROM were generated by using a traditional variance estimator and also approximated by bootstrap methods. Estimates of standard error generated by both...

Construction and accuracy of partial differential equation approximations to the chemical master equation.

PubMed

Grima, Ramon

2011-11-01

The mesoscopic description of chemical kinetics, the chemical master equation, can be exactly solved in only a few simple cases. The analytical intractability stems from the discrete character of the equation, and hence considerable effort has been invested in the development of Fokker-Planck equations, second-order partial differential equation approximations to the master equation. We here consider two different types of higher-order partial differential approximations, one derived from the system-size expansion and the other from the Kramers-Moyal expansion, and derive the accuracy of their predictions for chemical reactive networks composed of arbitrary numbers of unimolecular and bimolecular reactions. In particular, we show that the partial differential equation approximation of order Q from the Kramers-Moyal expansion leads to estimates of the mean number of molecules accurate to order Ω(-(2Q-3)/2), of the variance of the fluctuations in the number of molecules accurate to order Ω(-(2Q-5)/2), and of skewness accurate to order Ω(-(Q-2)). We also show that for large Q, the accuracy in the estimates can be matched only by a partial differential equation approximation from the system-size expansion of approximate order 2Q. Hence, we conclude that partial differential approximations based on the Kramers-Moyal expansion generally lead to considerably more accurate estimates in the mean, variance, and skewness than approximations of the same order derived from the system-size expansion.

Monthly hydroclimatology of the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Thomas; Devineni, Naresh; Sankarasubramanian, A.

2018-04-01

Physical/semi-empirical models that do not require any calibration are of paramount need for estimating hydrological fluxes for ungauged sites. We develop semi-empirical models for estimating the mean and variance of the monthly streamflow based on Taylor Series approximation of a lumped physically based water balance model. The proposed models require mean and variance of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, co-variability of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and regionally calibrated catchment retention sensitivity, atmospheric moisture uptake sensitivity, groundwater-partitioning factor, and the maximum soil moisture holding capacity parameters. Estimates of mean and variance of monthly streamflow using the semi-empirical equations are compared with the observed estimates for 1373 catchments in the continental United States. Analyses show that the proposed models explain the spatial variability in monthly moments for basins in lower elevations. A regionalization of parameters for each water resources region show good agreement between observed moments and model estimated moments during January, February, March and April for mean and all months except May and June for variance. Thus, the proposed relationships could be employed for understanding and estimating the monthly hydroclimatology of ungauged basins using regional parameters.

Testing Small Variance Priors Using Prior-Posterior Predictive p Values.

PubMed

Hoijtink, Herbert; van de Schoot, Rens

2017-04-03

Muthén and Asparouhov (2012) propose to evaluate model fit in structural equation models based on approximate (using small variance priors) instead of exact equality of (combinations of) parameters to zero. This is an important development that adequately addresses Cohen's (1994) The Earth is Round (p < .05), which stresses that point null-hypotheses are so precise that small and irrelevant differences from the null-hypothesis may lead to their rejection. It is tempting to evaluate small variance priors using readily available approaches like the posterior predictive p value and the DIC. However, as will be shown, both are not suited for the evaluation of models based on small variance priors. In this article, a well behaving alternative, the prior-posterior predictive p value, will be introduced. It will be shown that it is consistent, the distributions under the null and alternative hypotheses will be elaborated, and it will be applied to testing whether the difference between 2 means and the size of a correlation are relevantly different from zero. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A revised design for microarray experiments to account for experimental noise and uncertainty of probe response.

PubMed

Pozhitkov, Alex E; Noble, Peter A; Bryk, Jarosław; Tautz, Diethard

2014-01-01

Although microarrays are analysis tools in biomedical research, they are known to yield noisy output that usually requires experimental confirmation. To tackle this problem, many studies have developed rules for optimizing probe design and devised complex statistical tools to analyze the output. However, less emphasis has been placed on systematically identifying the noise component as part of the experimental procedure. One source of noise is the variance in probe binding, which can be assessed by replicating array probes. The second source is poor probe performance, which can be assessed by calibrating the array based on a dilution series of target molecules. Using model experiments for copy number variation and gene expression measurements, we investigate here a revised design for microarray experiments that addresses both of these sources of variance. Two custom arrays were used to evaluate the revised design: one based on 25 mer probes from an Affymetrix design and the other based on 60 mer probes from an Agilent design. To assess experimental variance in probe binding, all probes were replicated ten times. To assess probe performance, the probes were calibrated using a dilution series of target molecules and the signal response was fitted to an adsorption model. We found that significant variance of the signal could be controlled by averaging across probes and removing probes that are nonresponsive or poorly responsive in the calibration experiment. Taking this into account, one can obtain a more reliable signal with the added option of obtaining absolute rather than relative measurements. The assessment of technical variance within the experiments, combined with the calibration of probes allows to remove poorly responding probes and yields more reliable signals for the remaining ones. Once an array is properly calibrated, absolute quantification of signals becomes straight forward, alleviating the need for normalization and reference hybridizations.

Analytical probabilistic modeling of RBE-weighted dose for ion therapy.

PubMed

Wieser, H P; Hennig, P; Wahl, N; Bangert, M

2017-11-10

Particle therapy is especially prone to uncertainties. This issue is usually addressed with uncertainty quantification and minimization techniques based on scenario sampling. For proton therapy, however, it was recently shown that it is also possible to use closed-form computations based on analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) for this purpose. APM yields unique features compared to sampling-based approaches, motivating further research in this context. This paper demonstrates the application of APM for intensity-modulated carbon ion therapy to quantify the influence of setup and range uncertainties on the RBE-weighted dose. In particular, we derive analytical forms for the nonlinear computations of the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose by propagating linearly correlated Gaussian input uncertainties through a pencil beam dose calculation algorithm. Both exact and approximation formulas are presented for the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose and are subsequently studied in-depth for a one-dimensional carbon ion spread-out Bragg peak. With V and B being the number of voxels and pencil beams, respectively, the proposed approximations induce only a marginal loss of accuracy while lowering the computational complexity from order [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] for the expectation value and from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] for the variance of the RBE-weighted dose. Moreover, we evaluated the approximated calculation of the expectation value and standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose in combination with a probabilistic effect-based optimization on three patient cases considering carbon ions as radiation modality against sampled references. The resulting global γ-pass rates (2 mm,2%) are [Formula: see text]99.15% for the expectation value and [Formula: see text]94.95% for the standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose, respectively. We applied the derived analytical model to carbon ion treatment planning, although the concept is in general applicable to other ion species considering a variable RBE.

Analytical probabilistic modeling of RBE-weighted dose for ion therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieser, H. P.; Hennig, P.; Wahl, N.; Bangert, M.

2017-12-01

Particle therapy is especially prone to uncertainties. This issue is usually addressed with uncertainty quantification and minimization techniques based on scenario sampling. For proton therapy, however, it was recently shown that it is also possible to use closed-form computations based on analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) for this purpose. APM yields unique features compared to sampling-based approaches, motivating further research in this context. This paper demonstrates the application of APM for intensity-modulated carbon ion therapy to quantify the influence of setup and range uncertainties on the RBE-weighted dose. In particular, we derive analytical forms for the nonlinear computations of the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose by propagating linearly correlated Gaussian input uncertainties through a pencil beam dose calculation algorithm. Both exact and approximation formulas are presented for the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose and are subsequently studied in-depth for a one-dimensional carbon ion spread-out Bragg peak. With V and B being the number of voxels and pencil beams, respectively, the proposed approximations induce only a marginal loss of accuracy while lowering the computational complexity from order O(V × B^2) to O(V × B) for the expectation value and from O(V × B^4) to O(V × B^2) for the variance of the RBE-weighted dose. Moreover, we evaluated the approximated calculation of the expectation value and standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose in combination with a probabilistic effect-based optimization on three patient cases considering carbon ions as radiation modality against sampled references. The resulting global γ-pass rates (2 mm,2%) are > 99.15% for the expectation value and > 94.95% for the standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose, respectively. We applied the derived analytical model to carbon ion treatment planning, although the concept is in general applicable to other ion species considering a variable RBE.

Analytical approximations for effective relative permeability in the capillary limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Avinoam; Li, Boxiao; Durlofsky, Louis J.

2016-10-01

We present an analytical method for calculating two-phase effective relative permeability, krjeff, where j designates phase (here CO2 and water), under steady state and capillary-limit assumptions. These effective relative permeabilities may be applied in experimental settings and for upscaling in the context of numerical flow simulations, e.g., for CO2 storage. An exact solution for effective absolute permeability, keff, in two-dimensional log-normally distributed isotropic permeability (k) fields is the geometric mean. We show that this does not hold for krjeff since log normality is not maintained in the capillary-limit phase permeability field (Kj=k·krj) when capillary pressure, and thus the saturation field, is varied. Nevertheless, the geometric mean is still shown to be suitable for approximating krjeff when the variance of ln⁡k is low. For high-variance cases, we apply a correction to the geometric average gas effective relative permeability using a Winsorized mean, which neglects large and small Kj values symmetrically. The analytical method is extended to anisotropically correlated log-normal permeability fields using power law averaging. In these cases, the Winsorized mean treatment is applied to the gas curves for cases described by negative power law exponents (flow across incomplete layers). The accuracy of our analytical expressions for krjeff is demonstrated through extensive numerical tests, using low-variance and high-variance permeability realizations with a range of correlation structures. We also present integral expressions for geometric-mean and power law average krjeff for the systems considered, which enable derivation of closed-form series solutions for krjeff without generating permeability realizations.

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models.

PubMed

Mulder, Han A; Rönnegård, Lars; Fikse, W Freddy; Veerkamp, Roel F; Strandberg, Erling

2013-07-04

Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike's information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike's information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike's information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.

Errors in the estimation of the variance: implications for multiple-probability fluctuation analysis.

PubMed

Saviane, Chiara; Silver, R Angus

2006-06-15

Synapses play a crucial role in information processing in the brain. Amplitude fluctuations of synaptic responses can be used to extract information about the mechanisms underlying synaptic transmission and its modulation. In particular, multiple-probability fluctuation analysis can be used to estimate the number of functional release sites, the mean probability of release and the amplitude of the mean quantal response from fits of the relationship between the variance and mean amplitude of postsynaptic responses, recorded at different probabilities. To determine these quantal parameters, calculate their uncertainties and the goodness-of-fit of the model, it is important to weight the contribution of each data point in the fitting procedure. We therefore investigated the errors associated with measuring the variance by determining the best estimators of the variance of the variance and have used simulations of synaptic transmission to test their accuracy and reliability under different experimental conditions. For central synapses, which generally have a low number of release sites, the amplitude distribution of synaptic responses is not normal, thus the use of a theoretical variance of the variance based on the normal assumption is not a good approximation. However, appropriate estimators can be derived for the population and for limited sample sizes using a more general expression that involves higher moments and introducing unbiased estimators based on the h-statistics. Our results are likely to be relevant for various applications of fluctuation analysis when few channels or release sites are present.

Approximate Sample Size Formulas for Testing Group Mean Differences when Variances Are Unequal in One-Way ANOVA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guo, Jiin-Huarng; Luh, Wei-Ming

2008-01-01

This study proposes an approach for determining appropriate sample size for Welch's F test when unequal variances are expected. Given a certain maximum deviation in population means and using the quantile of F and t distributions, there is no need to specify a noncentrality parameter and it is easy to estimate the approximate sample size needed…

Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling: A More Flexible Representation of Substantive Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muthen, Bengt; Asparouhov, Tihomir

2012-01-01

This article proposes a new approach to factor analysis and structural equation modeling using Bayesian analysis. The new approach replaces parameter specifications of exact zeros with approximate zeros based on informative, small-variance priors. It is argued that this produces an analysis that better reflects substantive theories. The proposed…

Assessing the relationship between computational speed and precision: a case study comparing an interpreted versus compiled programming language using a stochastic simulation model in diabetes care.

PubMed

McEwan, Phil; Bergenheim, Klas; Yuan, Yong; Tetlow, Anthony P; Gordon, Jason P

2010-01-01

Simulation techniques are well suited to modelling diseases yet can be computationally intensive. This study explores the relationship between modelled effect size, statistical precision, and efficiency gains achieved using variance reduction and an executable programming language. A published simulation model designed to model a population with type 2 diabetes mellitus based on the UKPDS 68 outcomes equations was coded in both Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and C++. Efficiency gains due to the programming language were evaluated, as was the impact of antithetic variates to reduce variance, using predicted QALYs over a 40-year time horizon. The use of C++ provided a 75- and 90-fold reduction in simulation run time when using mean and sampled input values, respectively. For a series of 50 one-way sensitivity analyses, this would yield a total run time of 2 minutes when using C++, compared with 155 minutes for VBA when using mean input values. The use of antithetic variates typically resulted in a 53% reduction in the number of simulation replications and run time required. When drawing all input values to the model from distributions, the use of C++ and variance reduction resulted in a 246-fold improvement in computation time compared with VBA - for which the evaluation of 50 scenarios would correspondingly require 3.8 hours (C++) and approximately 14.5 days (VBA). The choice of programming language used in an economic model, as well as the methods for improving precision of model output can have profound effects on computation time. When constructing complex models, more computationally efficient approaches such as C++ and variance reduction should be considered; concerns regarding model transparency using compiled languages are best addressed via thorough documentation and model validation.

Development of rotation sample designs for the estimation of crop acreages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lycthuan-Lee, T. G. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The idea behind the use of rotation sample designs is that the variation of the crop acreage of a particular sample unit from year to year is usually less than the variation of crop acreage between units within a particular year. The estimation theory is based on an additive mixed analysis of variance model with years as fixed effects, (a sub t), and sample units as a variable factor. The rotation patterns are decided upon according to: (1) the number of sample units in the design each year; (2) the number of units retained in the following years; and (3) the number of years to complete the rotation pattern. Different analytic formulae for the variance of (a sub t) and the variance comparisons in using a complete survey of the rotation patterns.

The human as a detector of changes in variance and bandwidth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, R. E.; Govindaraj, T.

1977-01-01

The detection of changes in random process variance and bandwidth was studied. Psychophysical thresholds for these two parameters were determined using an adaptive staircase technique for second order random processes at two nominal periods (1 and 3 seconds) and damping ratios (0.2 and 0.707). Thresholds for bandwidth changes were approximately 9% of nominal except for the (3sec,0.2) process which yielded thresholds of 12%. Variance thresholds averaged 17% of nominal except for the (3sec,0.2) process in which they were 32%. Detection times for suprathreshold changes in the parameters may be roughly described by the changes in RMS velocity of the process. A more complex model is presented which consists of a Kalman filter designed for the nominal process using velocity as the input, and a modified Wald sequential test for changes in the variance of the residual. The model predictions agree moderately well with the experimental data. Models using heuristics, e.g. level crossing counters, were also examined and are found to be descriptive but do not afford the unification of the Kalman filter/sequential test model used for changes in mean.

An analysis of carrier phase jitter in an MPSK receiver utilizing map estimation. Ph.D. Thesis Semiannual Status Report, Jul. 1993 - Jan. 1994

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Osborne, William P.

1994-01-01

The use of 8 and 16 PSK TCM to support satellite communications in an effort to achieve more bandwidth efficiency in a power-limited channel has been proposed. This project addresses the problem of carrier phase jitter in an M-PSK receiver utilizing the high SNR approximation to the maximum aposteriori estimation of carrier phase. In particular, numerical solutions to the 8 and 16 PSK self-noise and phase detector gain in the carrier tracking loop are presented. The effect of changing SNR on the loop noise bandwidth is also discussed. These data are then used to compute variance of phase error as a function of SNR. Simulation and hardware data are used to verify these calculations. The results show that there is a threshold in the variance of phase error versus SNR curves that is a strong function of SNR and a weak function of loop bandwidth. The M-PSK variance thresholds occur at SNR's in the range of practical interest for the use of 8 and 16-PSK TCM. This suggests that phase error variance is an important consideration in the design of these systems.

Means and Variances without Calculus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinney, John J.

2005-01-01

This article gives a method of finding discrete approximations to continuous probability density functions and shows examples of its use, allowing students without calculus access to the calculation of means and variances.

The response of the SSM/I to the marine environment. Part 2: A parameterization of the effect of the sea surface slope distribution on emission and reflection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petty, Grant W.; Katsaros, Kristina B.

1994-01-01

Based on a geometric optics model and the assumption of an isotropic Gaussian surface slope distribution, the component of ocean surface microwave emissivity variation due to large-scale surface roughness is parameterized for the frequencies and approximate viewing angle of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager. Independent geophysical variables in the parameterization are the effective (microwave frequency dependent) slope variance and the sea surface temperature. Using the same physical model, the change in the effective zenith angle of reflected sky radiation arising from large-scale roughness is also parameterized. Independent geophysical variables in this parameterization are the effective slope variance and the atmospheric optical depth at the frequency in question. Both of the above model-based parameterizations are intended for use in conjunction with empirical parameterizations relating effective slope variance and foam coverage to near-surface wind speed. These empirical parameterizations are the subject of a separate paper.

Efficient prediction designs for random fields.

PubMed

Müller, Werner G; Pronzato, Luc; Rendas, Joao; Waldl, Helmut

2015-03-01

For estimation and predictions of random fields, it is increasingly acknowledged that the kriging variance may be a poor representative of true uncertainty. Experimental designs based on more elaborate criteria that are appropriate for empirical kriging (EK) are then often non-space-filling and very costly to determine. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of using a compound criterion inspired by an equivalence theorem type relation to build designs quasi-optimal for the EK variance when space-filling designs become unsuitable. Two algorithms are proposed, one relying on stochastic optimization to explicitly identify the Pareto front, whereas the second uses the surrogate criteria as local heuristic to choose the points at which the (costly) true EK variance is effectively computed. We illustrate the performance of the algorithms presented on both a simple simulated example and a real oceanographic dataset. © 2014 The Authors. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An approach to the analysis of performance of quasi-optimum digital phase-locked loops.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polk, D. R.; Gupta, S. C.

1973-01-01

An approach to the analysis of performance of quasi-optimum digital phase-locked loops (DPLL's) is presented. An expression for the characteristic function of the prior error in the state estimate is derived, and from this expression an infinite dimensional equation for the prior error variance is obtained. The prior error-variance equation is a function of the communication system model and the DPLL gain and is independent of the method used to derive the DPLL gain. Two approximations are discussed for reducing the prior error-variance equation to finite dimension. The effectiveness of one approximation in analyzing DPLL performance is studied.

Clinical brain MR imaging prescriptions in Talairach space: technologist- and computer-driven methods.

PubMed

Weiss, Kenneth L; Pan, Hai; Storrs, Judd; Strub, William; Weiss, Jane L; Jia, Li; Eldevik, O Petter

2003-05-01

Variability in patient head positioning may yield substantial interstudy image variance in the clinical setting. We describe and test three-step technologist and computer-automated algorithms designed to image the brain in a standard reference system and reduce variance. Triple oblique axial images obtained parallel to the Talairach anterior commissure (AC)-posterior commissure (PC) plane were reviewed in a prospective analysis of 126 consecutive patients. Requisite roll, yaw, and pitch correction, as three authors determined independently and subsequently by consensus, were compared with the technologists' actual graphical prescriptions and those generated by a novel computer automated three-step (CATS) program. Automated pitch determinations generated with Statistical Parametric Mapping '99 (SPM'99) were also compared. Requisite pitch correction (15.2 degrees +/- 10.2 degrees ) far exceeded that for roll (-0.6 degrees +/- 3.7 degrees ) and yaw (-0.9 degrees +/- 4.7 degrees ) in terms of magnitude and variance (P <.001). Technologist and computer-generated prescriptions substantially reduced interpatient image variance with regard to roll (3.4 degrees and 3.9 degrees vs 13.5 degrees ), yaw (0.6 degrees and 2.5 degrees vs 22.3 degrees ), and pitch (28.6 degrees, 18.5 degrees with CATS, and 59.3 degrees with SPM'99 vs 104 degrees ). CATS performed worse than the technologists in yaw prescription, and it was equivalent in roll and pitch prescriptions. Talairach prescriptions better approximated standard CT canthomeatal angulations (9 degrees vs 24 degrees ) and provided more efficient brain coverage than that of routine axial imaging. Brain MR prescriptions corrected for direct roll, yaw, and Talairach AC-PC pitch can be readily achieved by trained technologists or automated computer algorithms. This ability will substantially reduce interpatient variance, allow better approximation of standard CT angulation, and yield more efficient brain coverage than that of routine clinical axial imaging.

Improved variance estimation of classification performance via reduction of bias caused by small sample size.

PubMed

Wickenberg-Bolin, Ulrika; Göransson, Hanna; Fryknäs, Mårten; Gustafsson, Mats G; Isaksson, Anders

2006-03-13

Supervised learning for classification of cancer employs a set of design examples to learn how to discriminate between tumors. In practice it is crucial to confirm that the classifier is robust with good generalization performance to new examples, or at least that it performs better than random guessing. A suggested alternative is to obtain a confidence interval of the error rate using repeated design and test sets selected from available examples. However, it is known that even in the ideal situation of repeated designs and tests with completely novel samples in each cycle, a small test set size leads to a large bias in the estimate of the true variance between design sets. Therefore different methods for small sample performance estimation such as a recently proposed procedure called Repeated Random Sampling (RSS) is also expected to result in heavily biased estimates, which in turn translates into biased confidence intervals. Here we explore such biases and develop a refined algorithm called Repeated Independent Design and Test (RIDT). Our simulations reveal that repeated designs and tests based on resampling in a fixed bag of samples yield a biased variance estimate. We also demonstrate that it is possible to obtain an improved variance estimate by means of a procedure that explicitly models how this bias depends on the number of samples used for testing. For the special case of repeated designs and tests using new samples for each design and test, we present an exact analytical expression for how the expected value of the bias decreases with the size of the test set. We show that via modeling and subsequent reduction of the small sample bias, it is possible to obtain an improved estimate of the variance of classifier performance between design sets. However, the uncertainty of the variance estimate is large in the simulations performed indicating that the method in its present form cannot be directly applied to small data sets.

Tests for detecting overdispersion in models with measurement error in covariates.

PubMed

Yang, Yingsi; Wong, Man Yu

2015-11-30

Measurement error in covariates can affect the accuracy in count data modeling and analysis. In overdispersion identification, the true mean-variance relationship can be obscured under the influence of measurement error in covariates. In this paper, we propose three tests for detecting overdispersion when covariates are measured with error: a modified score test and two score tests based on the proposed approximate likelihood and quasi-likelihood, respectively. The proposed approximate likelihood is derived under the classical measurement error model, and the resulting approximate maximum likelihood estimator is shown to have superior efficiency. Simulation results also show that the score test based on approximate likelihood outperforms the test based on quasi-likelihood and other alternatives in terms of empirical power. By analyzing a real dataset containing the health-related quality-of-life measurements of a particular group of patients, we demonstrate the importance of the proposed methods by showing that the analyses with and without measurement error correction yield significantly different results. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Noncommuting observables in quantum detection and estimation theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helstrom, C. W.

1972-01-01

Basing decisions and estimates on simultaneous approximate measurements of noncommuting observables in a quantum receiver is shown to be equivalent to measuring commuting projection operators on a larger Hilbert space than that of the receiver itself. The quantum-mechanical Cramer-Rao inequalities derived from right logarithmic derivatives and symmetrized logarithmic derivatives of the density operator are compared, and it is shown that the latter give superior lower bounds on the error variances of individual unbiased estimates of arrival time and carrier frequency of a coherent signal. For a suitably weighted sum of the error variances of simultaneous estimates of these, the former yield the superior lower bound under some conditions.

Revisiting the time until fixation of a neutral mutant in a finite population - A coalescent theory approach.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili

2015-09-07

Evaluation of the time scale of the fixation of neutral mutations is crucial to the theoretical understanding of the role of neutral mutations in evolution. Diffusion approximations of the Wright-Fisher model are most often used to derive analytic formulations of genetic drift, as well as for the time scales of the fixation of neutral mutations. These approximations require a set of assumptions, most notably that genetic drift is a stochastic process in a continuous allele-frequency space, an assumption appropriate for large populations. Here equivalent approximations are derived using a coalescent theory approach which relies on a different set of assumptions than the diffusion approach, and adopts a discrete allele-frequency space. Solutions for the mean and variance of the time to fixation of a neutral mutation derived from the two approaches converge for large populations but slightly differ for small populations. A Markov chain analysis of the Wright-Fisher model for small populations is used to evaluate the solutions obtained, showing that both the mean and the variance are better approximated by the coalescent approach. The coalescence approximation represents a tighter upper-bound for the mean time to fixation than the diffusion approximation, while the diffusion approximation and coalescence approximation form an upper and lower bound, respectively, for the variance. The converging solutions and the small deviations of the two approaches strongly validate the use of diffusion approximations, but suggest that coalescent theory can provide more accurate approximations for small populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Palmprint Based Multidimensional Fuzzy Vault Scheme

PubMed Central

Liu, Hailun; Sun, Dongmei; Xiong, Ke; Qiu, Zhengding

2014-01-01

Fuzzy vault scheme (FVS) is one of the most popular biometric cryptosystems for biometric template protection. However, error correcting code (ECC) proposed in FVS is not appropriate to deal with real-valued biometric intraclass variances. In this paper, we propose a multidimensional fuzzy vault scheme (MDFVS) in which a general subspace error-tolerant mechanism is designed and embedded into FVS to handle intraclass variances. Palmprint is one of the most important biometrics; to protect palmprint templates; a palmprint based MDFVS implementation is also presented. Experimental results show that the proposed scheme not only can deal with intraclass variances effectively but also could maintain the accuracy and meanwhile enhance security. PMID:24892094

Deletion Diagnostics for the Generalised Linear Mixed Model with independent random effects

PubMed Central

Ganguli, B.; Roy, S. Sen; Naskar, M.; Malloy, E. J.; Eisen, E. A.

2015-01-01

The Generalised Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) is widely used for modelling environmental data. However, such data are prone to influential observations which can distort the estimated exposure-response curve particularly in regions of high exposure. Deletion diagnostics for iterative estimation schemes commonly derive the deleted estimates based on a single iteration of the full system holding certain pivotal quantities such as the information matrix to be constant. In this paper, we present an approximate formula for the deleted estimates and Cook’s distance for the GLMM which does not assume that the estimates of variance parameters are unaffected by deletion. The procedure allows the user to calculate standardised DFBETAs for mean as well as variance parameters. In certain cases, such as when using the GLMM as a device for smoothing, such residuals for the variance parameters are interesting in their own right. In general, the procedure leads to deleted estimates of mean parameters which are corrected for the effect of deletion on variance components as estimation of the two sets of parameters is interdependent. The probabilistic behaviour of these residuals is investigated and a simulation based procedure suggested for their standardisation. The method is used to identify influential individuals in an occupational cohort exposed to silica. The results show that failure to conduct post model fitting diagnostics for variance components can lead to erroneous conclusions about the fitted curve and unstable confidence intervals. PMID:26626135

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike’s information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. Methods We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike’s information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Results Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike’s information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. Conclusion The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring. PMID:23827014

Numbers of center points appropriate to blocked response surface experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holms, A. G.

1979-01-01

Tables are given for the numbers of center points to be used with blocked sequential designs of composite response surface experiments as used in empirical optimum seeking. The star point radii for exact orthogonal blocking is presented. The center point options varied from a lower limit of one to an upper limit equal to the numbers proposed by Box and Hunter for approximate rotatability and uniform variance, and exact orthogonal blocking. Some operating characteristics of the proposed options are described.

One-shot estimate of MRMC variance: AUC.

PubMed

Gallas, Brandon D

2006-03-01

One popular study design for estimating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is the one in which a set of readers reads a set of cases: a fully crossed design in which every reader reads every case. The variability of the subsequent reader-averaged AUC has two sources: the multiple readers and the multiple cases (MRMC). In this article, we present a nonparametric estimate for the variance of the reader-averaged AUC that is unbiased and does not use resampling tools. The one-shot estimate is based on the MRMC variance derived by the mechanistic approach of Barrett et al. (2005), as well as the nonparametric variance of a single-reader AUC derived in the literature on U statistics. We investigate the bias and variance properties of the one-shot estimate through a set of Monte Carlo simulations with simulated model observers and images. The different simulation configurations vary numbers of readers and cases, amounts of image noise and internal noise, as well as how the readers are constructed. We compare the one-shot estimate to a method that uses the jackknife resampling technique with an analysis of variance model at its foundation (Dorfman et al. 1992). The name one-shot highlights that resampling is not used. The one-shot and jackknife estimators behave similarly, with the one-shot being marginally more efficient when the number of cases is small. We have derived a one-shot estimate of the MRMC variance of AUC that is based on a probabilistic foundation with limited assumptions, is unbiased, and compares favorably to an established estimate.

Reducing Multisensor Satellite Monthly Mean Aerosol Optical Depth Uncertainty: 1. Objective Assessment of Current AERONET Locations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jing; Li, Xichen; Carlson, Barbara E.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Dubovik, Oleg; Nakajima, Teruyuki

2016-01-01

Various space-based sensors have been designed and corresponding algorithms developed to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD), the very basic aerosol optical property, yet considerable disagreement still exists across these different satellite data sets. Surface-based observations aim to provide ground truth for validating satellite data; hence, their deployment locations should preferably contain as much spatial information as possible, i.e., high spatial representativeness. Using a novel Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)- based approach, we objectively evaluate the spatial representativeness of current Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites. Multisensor monthly mean AOD data sets from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer, Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, Ozone Monitoring Instrument, and Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar are combined into a 605-member ensemble, and AERONET data are considered as the observations to be assimilated into this ensemble using the EnKF. The assessment is made by comparing the analysis error variance (that has been constrained by ground-based measurements), with the background error variance (based on satellite data alone). Results show that the total uncertainty is reduced by approximately 27% on average and could reach above 50% over certain places. The uncertainty reduction pattern also has distinct seasonal patterns, corresponding to the spatial distribution of seasonally varying aerosol types, such as dust in the spring for Northern Hemisphere and biomass burning in the fall for Southern Hemisphere. Dust and biomass burning sites have the highest spatial representativeness, rural and oceanic sites can also represent moderate spatial information, whereas the representativeness of urban sites is relatively localized. A spatial score ranging from 1 to 3 is assigned to each AERONET site based on the uncertainty reduction, indicating its representativeness level.

Efficient design of cluster randomized trials with treatment-dependent costs and treatment-dependent unknown variances.

PubMed

van Breukelen, Gerard J P; Candel, Math J J M

2018-06-10

Cluster randomized trials evaluate the effect of a treatment on persons nested within clusters, where treatment is randomly assigned to clusters. Current equations for the optimal sample size at the cluster and person level assume that the outcome variances and/or the study costs are known and homogeneous between treatment arms. This paper presents efficient yet robust designs for cluster randomized trials with treatment-dependent costs and treatment-dependent unknown variances, and compares these with 2 practical designs. First, the maximin design (MMD) is derived, which maximizes the minimum efficiency (minimizes the maximum sampling variance) of the treatment effect estimator over a range of treatment-to-control variance ratios. The MMD is then compared with the optimal design for homogeneous variances and costs (balanced design), and with that for homogeneous variances and treatment-dependent costs (cost-considered design). The results show that the balanced design is the MMD if the treatment-to control cost ratio is the same at both design levels (cluster, person) and within the range for the treatment-to-control variance ratio. It still is highly efficient and better than the cost-considered design if the cost ratio is within the range for the squared variance ratio. Outside that range, the cost-considered design is better and highly efficient, but it is not the MMD. An example shows sample size calculation for the MMD, and the computer code (SPSS and R) is provided as supplementary material. The MMD is recommended for trial planning if the study costs are treatment-dependent and homogeneity of variances cannot be assumed. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Transport of Density Fluctuations Throughout the Heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zank, G. P.; Jetha, N.; Hu, Q.; Hunana, P.

2012-01-01

The solar wind is recognized as a turbulent magnetofluid, for which the properties of the turbulent velocity and magnetic field fluctuations are often described by the equations of incompressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). However, low-frequency density turbulence is also ubiquitous. On the basis of a nearly incompressible formulation of MHD in the expanding inhomogeneous solar wind, we derive the transport equation for the variance of the density fluctuations (Rho(exp 2)). The transport equation shows that density fluctuations behave as a passive scalar in the supersonic solar wind. In the absence of sources of density turbulence, such as within 1AU, the variance (Rho(exp 2)) approximates r(exp -4). In the outer heliosphere beyond 1 AU, the shear between fast and slow streams, the propagation of shocks, and the creation of interstellar pickup ions all act as sources of density turbulence. The model density fluctuation variance evolves with heliocentric distance within approximately 300 AU as (Rho(exp 2)) approximates r(exp -3.3) after which it flattens and then slowly increases. This is precisely the radial profile for the density fluctuation variance observed by Voyager 2. Using a different analysis technique, we confirm the radial profile for Rho(exp 2) of Bellamy, Cairns, & Smith using Voyager 2 data. We conclude that a passive scalar description for density fluctuations in the supersonic solar wind can explain the density fluctuation variance observed in both the inner and the outer heliosphere.

Designing a Robust Micromixer Based on Fluid Stretching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mott, David; Gautam, Dipesh; Voth, Greg; Oran, Elaine

2010-11-01

A metric for measuring fluid stretching based on finite-time Lyapunov exponents is described, and the use of this metric for optimizing mixing in microfluidic components is explored. The metric is implemented within an automated design approach called the Computational Toolbox (CTB). The CTB designs components by adding geometric features, such a grooves of various shapes, to a microchannel. The transport produced by each of these features in isolation was pre-computed and stored as an "advection map" for that feature, and the flow through a composite geometry that combines these features is calculated rapidly by applying the corresponding maps in sequence. A genetic algorithm search then chooses the feature combination that optimizes a user-specified metric. Metrics based on the variance of concentration generally require the user to specify the fluid distributions at inflow, which leads to different mixer designs for different inflow arrangements. The stretching metric is independent of the fluid arrangement at inflow. Mixers designed using the stretching metric are compared to those designed using a variance of concentration metric and show excellent performance across a variety of inflow distributions and diffusivities.

Genetic variance in micro-environmental sensitivity for milk and milk quality in Walloon Holstein cattle.

PubMed

Vandenplas, J; Bastin, C; Gengler, N; Mulder, H A

2013-09-01

Animals that are robust to environmental changes are desirable in the current dairy industry. Genetic differences in micro-environmental sensitivity can be studied through heterogeneity of residual variance between animals. However, residual variance between animals is usually assumed to be homogeneous in traditional genetic evaluations. The aim of this study was to investigate genetic heterogeneity of residual variance by estimating variance components in residual variance for milk yield, somatic cell score, contents in milk (g/dL) of 2 groups of milk fatty acids (i.e., saturated and unsaturated fatty acids), and the content in milk of one individual fatty acid (i.e., oleic acid, C18:1 cis-9), for first-parity Holstein cows in the Walloon Region of Belgium. A total of 146,027 test-day records from 26,887 cows in 747 herds were available. All cows had at least 3 records and a known sire. These sires had at least 10 cows with records and each herd × test-day had at least 5 cows. The 5 traits were analyzed separately based on fixed lactation curve and random regression test-day models for the mean. Estimation of variance components was performed by running iteratively expectation maximization-REML algorithm by the implementation of double hierarchical generalized linear models. Based on fixed lactation curve test-day mean models, heritability for residual variances ranged between 1.01×10(-3) and 4.17×10(-3) for all traits. The genetic standard deviation in residual variance (i.e., approximately the genetic coefficient of variation of residual variance) ranged between 0.12 and 0.17. Therefore, some genetic variance in micro-environmental sensitivity existed in the Walloon Holstein dairy cattle for the 5 studied traits. The standard deviations due to herd × test-day and permanent environment in residual variance ranged between 0.36 and 0.45 for herd × test-day effect and between 0.55 and 0.97 for permanent environmental effect. Therefore, nongenetic effects also contributed substantially to micro-environmental sensitivity. Addition of random regressions to the mean model did not reduce heterogeneity in residual variance and that genetic heterogeneity of residual variance was not simply an effect of an incomplete mean model. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Theory, method and application of method R on estimation of (co)variance components].

PubMed

Liu, Wen-Zhong

2004-07-01

Theory, method and application of Method R on estimation of (co)variance components were reviewed in order to make the method be reasonably used. Estimation requires R values,which are regressions of predicted random effects that are calculated using complete dataset on predicted random effects that are calculated using random subsets of the same data. By using multivariate iteration algorithm based on a transformation matrix,and combining with the preconditioned conjugate gradient to solve the mixed model equations, the computation efficiency of Method R is much improved. Method R is computationally inexpensive,and the sampling errors and approximate credible intervals of estimates can be obtained. Disadvantages of Method R include a larger sampling variance than other methods for the same data,and biased estimates in small datasets. As an alternative method, Method R can be used in larger datasets. It is necessary to study its theoretical properties and broaden its application range further.

Adaptive Prior Variance Calibration in the Bayesian Continual Reassessment Method

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jin; Braun, Thomas M.; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.

2012-01-01

Use of the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM) and other model-based approaches to design in Phase I clinical trials has increased due to the ability of the CRM to identify the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) better than the 3+3 method. However, the CRM can be sensitive to the variance selected for the prior distribution of the model parameter, especially when a small number of patients are enrolled. While methods have emerged to adaptively select skeletons and to calibrate the prior variance only at the beginning of a trial, there has not been any approach developed to adaptively calibrate the prior variance throughout a trial. We propose three systematic approaches to adaptively calibrate the prior variance during a trial and compare them via simulation to methods proposed to calibrate the variance at the beginning of a trial. PMID:22987660

The Development of Inhibitory Control in Early Childhood: A Twin Study from 2-3 Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gagne, Jeffrey R.; Saudino, Kimberly J.

2016-01-01

Parent- and lab-based observer ratings were employed to examine genetic and environmental influences on continuity and change in inhibitory control (IC) in over 300 twin-pairs assessed longitudinally at 2 and 3 years of age. Genetic influences accounted for approximately 60% of the variance in parent-rated IC at both ages. Although many of the…

Exact and Monte carlo resampling procedures for the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests.

PubMed

Berry, K J; Mielke, P W

2000-12-01

Exact and Monte Carlo resampling FORTRAN programs are described for the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum test and the Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance for ranks test. The program algorithms compensate for tied values and do not depend on asymptotic approximations for probability values, unlike most algorithms contained in PC-based statistical software packages.

Modeling additive and non-additive effects in a hybrid population using genome-wide genotyping: prediction accuracy implications

PubMed Central

Bouvet, J-M; Makouanzi, G; Cros, D; Vigneron, Ph

2016-01-01

Hybrids are broadly used in plant breeding and accurate estimation of variance components is crucial for optimizing genetic gain. Genome-wide information may be used to explore models designed to assess the extent of additive and non-additive variance and test their prediction accuracy for the genomic selection. Ten linear mixed models, involving pedigree- and marker-based relationship matrices among parents, were developed to estimate additive (A), dominance (D) and epistatic (AA, AD and DD) effects. Five complementary models, involving the gametic phase to estimate marker-based relationships among hybrid progenies, were developed to assess the same effects. The models were compared using tree height and 3303 single-nucleotide polymorphism markers from 1130 cloned individuals obtained via controlled crosses of 13 Eucalyptus urophylla females with 9 Eucalyptus grandis males. Akaike information criterion (AIC), variance ratios, asymptotic correlation matrices of estimates, goodness-of-fit, prediction accuracy and mean square error (MSE) were used for the comparisons. The variance components and variance ratios differed according to the model. Models with a parent marker-based relationship matrix performed better than those that were pedigree-based, that is, an absence of singularities, lower AIC, higher goodness-of-fit and accuracy and smaller MSE. However, AD and DD variances were estimated with high s.es. Using the same criteria, progeny gametic phase-based models performed better in fitting the observations and predicting genetic values. However, DD variance could not be separated from the dominance variance and null estimates were obtained for AA and AD effects. This study highlighted the advantages of progeny models using genome-wide information. PMID:26328760

Efficiency Study of NLS Base-Year Design. RTI-22U-884-3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, R. P.; And Others

An efficiency study was conducted of the base year design used for the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS). Finding the optimal design involved a search for the numbers of sample schools and students that would maximize the variance at a given cost. Twenty-one variables describing students' plans, attitudes,…

Design of a sampling plan to detect ochratoxin A in green coffee.

PubMed

Vargas, E A; Whitaker, T B; Dos Santos, E A; Slate, A B; Lima, F B; Franca, R C A

2006-01-01

The establishment of maximum limits for ochratoxin A (OTA) in coffee by importing countries requires that coffee-producing countries develop scientifically based sampling plans to assess OTA contents in lots of green coffee before coffee enters the market thus reducing consumer exposure to OTA, minimizing the number of lots rejected, and reducing financial loss for producing countries. A study was carried out to design an official sampling plan to determine OTA in green coffee produced in Brazil. Twenty-five lots of green coffee (type 7 - approximately 160 defects) were sampled according to an experimental protocol where 16 test samples were taken from each lot (total of 16 kg) resulting in a total of 800 OTA analyses. The total, sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variances were 10.75 (CV = 65.6%), 7.80 (CV = 55.8%), 2.84 (CV = 33.7%), and 0.11 (CV = 6.6%), respectively, assuming a regulatory limit of 5 microg kg(-1) OTA and using a 1 kg sample, Romer RAS mill, 25 g sub-samples, and high performance liquid chromatography. The observed OTA distribution among the 16 OTA sample results was compared to several theoretical distributions. The 2 parameter-log normal distribution was selected to model OTA test results for green coffee as it gave the best fit across all 25 lot distributions. Specific computer software was developed using the variance and distribution information to predict the probability of accepting or rejecting coffee lots at specific OTA concentrations. The acceptation probability was used to compute an operating characteristic (OC) curve specific to a sampling plan design. The OC curve was used to predict the rejection of good lots (sellers' or exporters' risk) and the acceptance of bad lots (buyers' or importers' risk).

Applying the Hájek Approach in Formula-Based Variance Estimation. Research Report. ETS RR-17-24

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Qian, Jiahe

2017-01-01

The variance formula derived for a two-stage sampling design without replacement employs the joint inclusion probabilities in the first-stage selection of clusters. One of the difficulties encountered in data analysis is the lack of information about such joint inclusion probabilities. One way to solve this issue is by applying Hájek's…

Previous Estimates of Mitochondrial DNA Mutation Level Variance Did Not Account for Sampling Error: Comparing the mtDNA Genetic Bottleneck in Mice and Humans

PubMed Central

Wonnapinij, Passorn; Chinnery, Patrick F.; Samuels, David C.

2010-01-01

In cases of inherited pathogenic mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations, a mother and her offspring generally have large and seemingly random differences in the amount of mutated mtDNA that they carry. Comparisons of measured mtDNA mutation level variance values have become an important issue in determining the mechanisms that cause these large random shifts in mutation level. These variance measurements have been made with samples of quite modest size, which should be a source of concern because higher-order statistics, such as variance, are poorly estimated from small sample sizes. We have developed an analysis of the standard error of variance from a sample of size n, and we have defined error bars for variance measurements based on this standard error. We calculate variance error bars for several published sets of measurements of mtDNA mutation level variance and show how the addition of the error bars alters the interpretation of these experimental results. We compare variance measurements from human clinical data and from mouse models and show that the mutation level variance is clearly higher in the human data than it is in the mouse models at both the primary oocyte and offspring stages of inheritance. We discuss how the standard error of variance can be used in the design of experiments measuring mtDNA mutation level variance. Our results show that variance measurements based on fewer than 20 measurements are generally unreliable and ideally more than 50 measurements are required to reliably compare variances with less than a 2-fold difference. PMID:20362273

An analytic technique for statistically modeling random atomic clock errors in estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fell, P. J.

1981-01-01

Minimum variance estimation requires that the statistics of random observation errors be modeled properly. If measurements are derived through the use of atomic frequency standards, then one source of error affecting the observable is random fluctuation in frequency. This is the case, for example, with range and integrated Doppler measurements from satellites of the Global Positioning and baseline determination for geodynamic applications. An analytic method is presented which approximates the statistics of this random process. The procedure starts with a model of the Allan variance for a particular oscillator and develops the statistics of range and integrated Doppler measurements. A series of five first order Markov processes is used to approximate the power spectral density obtained from the Allan variance.

Approximate sample size formulas for the two-sample trimmed mean test with unequal variances.

PubMed

Luh, Wei-Ming; Guo, Jiin-Huarng

2007-05-01

Yuen's two-sample trimmed mean test statistic is one of the most robust methods to apply when variances are heterogeneous. The present study develops formulas for the sample size required for the test. The formulas are applicable for the cases of unequal variances, non-normality and unequal sample sizes. Given the specified alpha and the power (1-beta), the minimum sample size needed by the proposed formulas under various conditions is less than is given by the conventional formulas. Moreover, given a specified size of sample calculated by the proposed formulas, simulation results show that Yuen's test can achieve statistical power which is generally superior to that of the approximate t test. A numerical example is provided.

Approximate median regression for complex survey data with skewed response.

PubMed

Fraser, Raphael André; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Sinha, Debajyoti; Fitzmaurice, Garrett M; Pan, Yi

2016-12-01

The ready availability of public-use data from various large national complex surveys has immense potential for the assessment of population characteristics using regression models. Complex surveys can be used to identify risk factors for important diseases such as cancer. Existing statistical methods based on estimating equations and/or utilizing resampling methods are often not valid with survey data due to complex survey design features. That is, stratification, multistage sampling, and weighting. In this article, we accommodate these design features in the analysis of highly skewed response variables arising from large complex surveys. Specifically, we propose a double-transform-both-sides (DTBS)'based estimating equations approach to estimate the median regression parameters of the highly skewed response; the DTBS approach applies the same Box-Cox type transformation twice to both the outcome and regression function. The usual sandwich variance estimate can be used in our approach, whereas a resampling approach would be needed for a pseudo-likelihood based on minimizing absolute deviations (MAD). Furthermore, the approach is relatively robust to the true underlying distribution, and has much smaller mean square error than a MAD approach. The method is motivated by an analysis of laboratory data on urinary iodine (UI) concentration from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Approximate Median Regression for Complex Survey Data with Skewed Response

PubMed Central

Fraser, Raphael André; Lipsitz, Stuart R.; Sinha, Debajyoti; Fitzmaurice, Garrett M.; Pan, Yi

2016-01-01

Summary The ready availability of public-use data from various large national complex surveys has immense potential for the assessment of population characteristics using regression models. Complex surveys can be used to identify risk factors for important diseases such as cancer. Existing statistical methods based on estimating equations and/or utilizing resampling methods are often not valid with survey data due to complex survey design features. That is, stratification, multistage sampling and weighting. In this paper, we accommodate these design features in the analysis of highly skewed response variables arising from large complex surveys. Specifically, we propose a double-transform-both-sides (DTBS) based estimating equations approach to estimate the median regression parameters of the highly skewed response; the DTBS approach applies the same Box-Cox type transformation twice to both the outcome and regression function. The usual sandwich variance estimate can be used in our approach, whereas a resampling approach would be needed for a pseudo-likelihood based on minimizing absolute deviations (MAD). Furthermore, the approach is relatively robust to the true underlying distribution, and has much smaller mean square error than a MAD approach. The method is motivated by an analysis of laboratory data on urinary iodine (UI) concentration from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. PMID:27062562

Attitude Determination Using a MEMS-Based Flight Information Measurement Unit

PubMed Central

Ma, Der-Ming; Shiau, Jaw-Kuen; Wang, I.-Chiang; Lin, Yu-Heng

2012-01-01

Obtaining precise attitude information is essential for aircraft navigation and control. This paper presents the results of the attitude determination using an in-house designed low-cost MEMS-based flight information measurement unit. This study proposes a quaternion-based extended Kalman filter to integrate the traditional quaternion and gravitational force decomposition methods for attitude determination algorithm. The proposed extended Kalman filter utilizes the evolution of the four elements in the quaternion method for attitude determination as the dynamic model, with the four elements as the states of the filter. The attitude angles obtained from the gravity computations and from the electronic magnetic sensors are regarded as the measurement of the filter. The immeasurable gravity accelerations are deduced from the outputs of the three axes accelerometers, the relative accelerations, and the accelerations due to body rotation. The constraint of the four elements of the quaternion method is treated as a perfect measurement and is integrated into the filter computation. Approximations of the time-varying noise variances of the measured signals are discussed and presented with details through Taylor series expansions. The algorithm is intuitive, easy to implement, and reliable for long-term high dynamic maneuvers. Moreover, a set of flight test data is utilized to demonstrate the success and practicality of the proposed algorithm and the filter design. PMID:22368455

Attitude determination using a MEMS-based flight information measurement unit.

PubMed

Ma, Der-Ming; Shiau, Jaw-Kuen; Wang, I-Chiang; Lin, Yu-Heng

2012-01-01

Obtaining precise attitude information is essential for aircraft navigation and control. This paper presents the results of the attitude determination using an in-house designed low-cost MEMS-based flight information measurement unit. This study proposes a quaternion-based extended Kalman filter to integrate the traditional quaternion and gravitational force decomposition methods for attitude determination algorithm. The proposed extended Kalman filter utilizes the evolution of the four elements in the quaternion method for attitude determination as the dynamic model, with the four elements as the states of the filter. The attitude angles obtained from the gravity computations and from the electronic magnetic sensors are regarded as the measurement of the filter. The immeasurable gravity accelerations are deduced from the outputs of the three axes accelerometers, the relative accelerations, and the accelerations due to body rotation. The constraint of the four elements of the quaternion method is treated as a perfect measurement and is integrated into the filter computation. Approximations of the time-varying noise variances of the measured signals are discussed and presented with details through Taylor series expansions. The algorithm is intuitive, easy to implement, and reliable for long-term high dynamic maneuvers. Moreover, a set of flight test data is utilized to demonstrate the success and practicality of the proposed algorithm and the filter design.

Control algorithms for dynamic attenuators.

PubMed

Hsieh, Scott S; Pelc, Norbert J

2014-06-01

The authors describe algorithms to control dynamic attenuators in CT and compare their performance using simulated scans. Dynamic attenuators are prepatient beam shaping filters that modulate the distribution of x-ray fluence incident on the patient on a view-by-view basis. These attenuators can reduce dose while improving key image quality metrics such as peak or mean variance. In each view, the attenuator presents several degrees of freedom which may be individually adjusted. The total number of degrees of freedom across all views is very large, making many optimization techniques impractical. The authors develop a theory for optimally controlling these attenuators. Special attention is paid to a theoretically perfect attenuator which controls the fluence for each ray individually, but the authors also investigate and compare three other, practical attenuator designs which have been previously proposed: the piecewise-linear attenuator, the translating attenuator, and the double wedge attenuator. The authors pose and solve the optimization problems of minimizing the mean and peak variance subject to a fixed dose limit. For a perfect attenuator and mean variance minimization, this problem can be solved in simple, closed form. For other attenuator designs, the problem can be decomposed into separate problems for each view to greatly reduce the computational complexity. Peak variance minimization can be approximately solved using iterated, weighted mean variance (WMV) minimization. Also, the authors develop heuristics for the perfect and piecewise-linear attenuators which do not require a priori knowledge of the patient anatomy. The authors compare these control algorithms on different types of dynamic attenuators using simulated raw data from forward projected DICOM files of a thorax and an abdomen. The translating and double wedge attenuators reduce dose by an average of 30% relative to current techniques (bowtie filter with tube current modulation) without increasing peak variance. The 15-element piecewise-linear dynamic attenuator reduces dose by an average of 42%, and the perfect attenuator reduces dose by an average of 50%. Improvements in peak variance are several times larger than improvements in mean variance. Heuristic control eliminates the need for a prescan. For the piecewise-linear attenuator, the cost of heuristic control is an increase in dose of 9%. The proposed iterated WMV minimization produces results that are within a few percent of the true solution. Dynamic attenuators show potential for significant dose reduction. A wide class of dynamic attenuators can be accurately controlled using the described methods.

A Multi-factorial Model for Examining Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Acute Asthma Visits by Children

PubMed Central

Feldman, Jonathan M.; Serebrisky, Denise; Spray, Amanda

2012-01-01

Background Causes of children’s asthma health disparities are complex. Parents’ asthma illness representations may play a role. Purpose The study aims to test a theoretically based, multi-factorial model for ethnic disparities in children’s acute asthma visits through parental illness representations. Methods Structural equation modeling investigated the association of parental asthma illness representations, sociodemographic characteristics, health care provider factors, and social–environmental context with children’s acute asthma visits among 309 White, Puerto Rican, and African American families was conducted. Results Forty-five percent of the variance in illness representations and 30% of the variance in acute visits were accounted for. Statistically significant differences in illness representations were observed by ethnic group. Approximately 30% of the variance in illness representations was explained for whites, 23% for African Americans, and 26% for Puerto Ricans. The model accounted for >30% of the variance in acute visits for African Americans and Puerto Ricans but only 19% for the whites. Conclusion The model provides preliminary support that ethnic heterogeneity in asthma illness representations affects children’s health outcomes. PMID:22160799

Task-Driven Tube Current Modulation and Regularization Design in Computed Tomography with Penalized-Likelihood Reconstruction.

PubMed

Gang, G J; Siewerdsen, J H; Stayman, J W

2016-02-01

This work applies task-driven optimization to design CT tube current modulation and directional regularization in penalized-likelihood (PL) reconstruction. The relative performance of modulation schemes commonly adopted for filtered-backprojection (FBP) reconstruction were also evaluated for PL in comparison. We adopt a task-driven imaging framework that utilizes a patient-specific anatomical model and information of the imaging task to optimize imaging performance in terms of detectability index ( d' ). This framework leverages a theoretical model based on implicit function theorem and Fourier approximations to predict local spatial resolution and noise characteristics of PL reconstruction as a function of the imaging parameters to be optimized. Tube current modulation was parameterized as a linear combination of Gaussian basis functions, and regularization was based on the design of (directional) pairwise penalty weights for the 8 in-plane neighboring voxels. Detectability was optimized using a covariance matrix adaptation evolutionary strategy algorithm. Task-driven designs were compared to conventional tube current modulation strategies for a Gaussian detection task in an abdomen phantom. The task-driven design yielded the best performance, improving d' by ~20% over an unmodulated acquisition. Contrary to FBP, PL reconstruction using automatic exposure control and modulation based on minimum variance (in FBP) performed worse than the unmodulated case, decreasing d' by 16% and 9%, respectively. This work shows that conventional tube current modulation schemes suitable for FBP can be suboptimal for PL reconstruction. Thus, the proposed task-driven optimization provides additional opportunities for improved imaging performance and dose reduction beyond that achievable with conventional acquisition and reconstruction.

The Variance of Solar Wind Magnetic Fluctuations: Solutions and Further Puzzles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, D. A.; Goldstein, M. L.

2006-01-01

We study the dependence of the variance directions of the magnetic field in the solar wind as a function of scale, radial distance, and Alfvenicity. The study resolves the question of why different studies have arrived at widely differing values for the maximum to minimum power (approximately equal to 3:1 up to approximately equal to 20:1). This is due to the decreasing anisotropy with increasing time interval chosen for the variance, and is a direct result of the "spherical polarization" of the waves which follows from the near constancy of |B|. The reason for the magnitude preserving evolution is still unresolved. Moreover, while the long-known tendency for the minimum variance to lie along the mean field also follows from this view (as shown by Barnes many years ago), there is no theory for why the minimum variance follows the field direction as the Parker angle changes. We show that this turning is quite generally true in Alfvenic regions over a wide range of heliocentric distances. The fact that nonAlfvenic regions, while still showing strong power anisotropies, tend to have a much broader range of angles between the minimum variance and the mean field makes it unlikely that the cause of the variance turning is to be found in a turbulence mechanism. There are no obvious alternative mechanisms, leaving us with another intriguing puzzle.

Longitudinal design considerations to optimize power to detect variances and covariances among rates of change: Simulation results based on actual longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Rast, Philippe; Hofer, Scott M.

2014-01-01

We investigated the power to detect variances and covariances in rates of change in the context of existing longitudinal studies using linear bivariate growth curve models. Power was estimated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Our findings show that typical longitudinal study designs have substantial power to detect both variances and covariances among rates of change in a variety of cognitive, physical functioning, and mental health outcomes. We performed simulations to investigate the interplay among number and spacing of occasions, total duration of the study, effect size, and error variance on power and required sample size. The relation between growth rate reliability (GRR) and effect size to the sample size required to detect power ≥ .80 was non-linear, with rapidly decreasing sample sizes needed as GRR increases. The results presented here stand in contrast to previous simulation results and recommendations (Hertzog, Lindenberger, Ghisletta, & von Oertzen, 2006; Hertzog, von Oertzen, Ghisletta, & Lindenberger, 2008; von Oertzen, Ghisletta, & Lindenberger, 2010), which are limited due to confounds between study length and number of waves, error variance with GCR, and parameter values which are largely out of bounds of actual study values. Power to detect change is generally low in the early phases (i.e. first years) of longitudinal studies but can substantially increase if the design is optimized. We recommend additional assessments, including embedded intensive measurement designs, to improve power in the early phases of long-term longitudinal studies. PMID:24219544

Concept design theory and model for multi-use space facilities: Analysis of key system design parameters through variance of mission requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynerson, Charles Martin

This research has been performed to create concept design and economic feasibility data for space business parks. A space business park is a commercially run multi-use space station facility designed for use by a wide variety of customers. Both space hardware and crew are considered as revenue producing payloads. Examples of commercial markets may include biological and materials research, processing, and production, space tourism habitats, and satellite maintenance and resupply depots. This research develops a design methodology and an analytical tool to create feasible preliminary design information for space business parks. The design tool is validated against a number of real facility designs. Appropriate model variables are adjusted to ensure that statistical approximations are valid for subsequent analyses. The tool is used to analyze the effect of various payload requirements on the size, weight and power of the facility. The approach for the analytical tool was to input potential payloads as simple requirements, such as volume, weight, power, crew size, and endurance. In creating the theory, basic principles are used and combined with parametric estimation of data when necessary. Key system parameters are identified for overall system design. Typical ranges for these key parameters are identified based on real human spaceflight systems. To connect the economics to design, a life-cycle cost model is created based upon facility mass. This rough cost model estimates potential return on investments, initial investment requirements and number of years to return on the initial investment. Example cases are analyzed for both performance and cost driven requirements for space hotels, microgravity processing facilities, and multi-use facilities. In combining both engineering and economic models, a design-to-cost methodology is created for more accurately estimating the commercial viability for multiple space business park markets.

A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yang; Wong, Hau-San; Qin, Zhongfeng

2009-11-01

Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean-variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.

Effect of non-normality on test statistics for one-way independent groups designs.

PubMed

Cribbie, Robert A; Fiksenbaum, Lisa; Keselman, H J; Wilcox, Rand R

2012-02-01

The data obtained from one-way independent groups designs is typically non-normal in form and rarely equally variable across treatment populations (i.e., population variances are heterogeneous). Consequently, the classical test statistic that is used to assess statistical significance (i.e., the analysis of variance F test) typically provides invalid results (e.g., too many Type I errors, reduced power). For this reason, there has been considerable interest in finding a test statistic that is appropriate under conditions of non-normality and variance heterogeneity. Previously recommended procedures for analysing such data include the James test, the Welch test applied either to the usual least squares estimators of central tendency and variability, or the Welch test with robust estimators (i.e., trimmed means and Winsorized variances). A new statistic proposed by Krishnamoorthy, Lu, and Mathew, intended to deal with heterogeneous variances, though not non-normality, uses a parametric bootstrap procedure. In their investigation of the parametric bootstrap test, the authors examined its operating characteristics under limited conditions and did not compare it to the Welch test based on robust estimators. Thus, we investigated how the parametric bootstrap procedure and a modified parametric bootstrap procedure based on trimmed means perform relative to previously recommended procedures when data are non-normal and heterogeneous. The results indicated that the tests based on trimmed means offer the best Type I error control and power when variances are unequal and at least some of the distribution shapes are non-normal. © 2011 The British Psychological Society.

On Stabilizing the Variance of Dynamic Functional Brain Connectivity Time Series

PubMed Central

Fransson, Peter

2016-01-01

Abstract Assessment of dynamic functional brain connectivity based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data is an increasingly popular strategy to investigate temporal dynamics of the brain's large-scale network architecture. Current practice when deriving connectivity estimates over time is to use the Fisher transformation, which aims to stabilize the variance of correlation values that fluctuate around varying true correlation values. It is, however, unclear how well the stabilization of signal variance performed by the Fisher transformation works for each connectivity time series, when the true correlation is assumed to be fluctuating. This is of importance because many subsequent analyses either assume or perform better when the time series have stable variance or adheres to an approximate Gaussian distribution. In this article, using simulations and analysis of resting-state fMRI data, we analyze the effect of applying different variance stabilization strategies on connectivity time series. We focus our investigation on the Fisher transformation, the Box–Cox (BC) transformation and an approach that combines both transformations. Our results show that, if the intention of stabilizing the variance is to use metrics on the time series, where stable variance or a Gaussian distribution is desired (e.g., clustering), the Fisher transformation is not optimal and may even skew connectivity time series away from being Gaussian. Furthermore, we show that the suboptimal performance of the Fisher transformation can be substantially improved by including an additional BC transformation after the dynamic functional connectivity time series has been Fisher transformed. PMID:27784176

On Stabilizing the Variance of Dynamic Functional Brain Connectivity Time Series.

PubMed

Thompson, William Hedley; Fransson, Peter

2016-12-01

Assessment of dynamic functional brain connectivity based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data is an increasingly popular strategy to investigate temporal dynamics of the brain's large-scale network architecture. Current practice when deriving connectivity estimates over time is to use the Fisher transformation, which aims to stabilize the variance of correlation values that fluctuate around varying true correlation values. It is, however, unclear how well the stabilization of signal variance performed by the Fisher transformation works for each connectivity time series, when the true correlation is assumed to be fluctuating. This is of importance because many subsequent analyses either assume or perform better when the time series have stable variance or adheres to an approximate Gaussian distribution. In this article, using simulations and analysis of resting-state fMRI data, we analyze the effect of applying different variance stabilization strategies on connectivity time series. We focus our investigation on the Fisher transformation, the Box-Cox (BC) transformation and an approach that combines both transformations. Our results show that, if the intention of stabilizing the variance is to use metrics on the time series, where stable variance or a Gaussian distribution is desired (e.g., clustering), the Fisher transformation is not optimal and may even skew connectivity time series away from being Gaussian. Furthermore, we show that the suboptimal performance of the Fisher transformation can be substantially improved by including an additional BC transformation after the dynamic functional connectivity time series has been Fisher transformed.

Automatic variance reduction for Monte Carlo simulations via the local importance function transform

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, S.A.

1996-02-01

The author derives a transformed transport problem that can be solved theoretically by analog Monte Carlo with zero variance. However, the Monte Carlo simulation of this transformed problem cannot be implemented in practice, so he develops a method for approximating it. The approximation to the zero variance method consists of replacing the continuous adjoint transport solution in the transformed transport problem by a piecewise continuous approximation containing local biasing parameters obtained from a deterministic calculation. He uses the transport and collision processes of the transformed problem to bias distance-to-collision and selection of post-collision energy groups and trajectories in a traditionalmore » Monte Carlo simulation of ``real`` particles. He refers to the resulting variance reduction method as the Local Importance Function Transform (LIFI) method. He demonstrates the efficiency of the LIFT method for several 3-D, linearly anisotropic scattering, one-group, and multigroup problems. In these problems the LIFT method is shown to be more efficient than the AVATAR scheme, which is one of the best variance reduction techniques currently available in a state-of-the-art Monte Carlo code. For most of the problems considered, the LIFT method produces higher figures of merit than AVATAR, even when the LIFT method is used as a ``black box``. There are some problems that cause trouble for most variance reduction techniques, and the LIFT method is no exception. For example, the author demonstrates that problems with voids, or low density regions, can cause a reduction in the efficiency of the LIFT method. However, the LIFT method still performs better than survival biasing and AVATAR in these difficult cases.« less

Differential privacy based on importance weighting

PubMed Central

Ji, Zhanglong

2014-01-01

This paper analyzes a novel method for publishing data while still protecting privacy. The method is based on computing weights that make an existing dataset, for which there are no confidentiality issues, analogous to the dataset that must be kept private. The existing dataset may be genuine but public already, or it may be synthetic. The weights are importance sampling weights, but to protect privacy, they are regularized and have noise added. The weights allow statistical queries to be answered approximately while provably guaranteeing differential privacy. We derive an expression for the asymptotic variance of the approximate answers. Experiments show that the new mechanism performs well even when the privacy budget is small, and when the public and private datasets are drawn from different populations. PMID:24482559

Cryogenic sapphire oscillator using a low-vibration design pulse-tube cryocooler: first results.

PubMed

Hartnett, John; Nand, Nitin; Wang, Chao; Floch, Jean-Michel

2010-05-01

A cryogenic sapphire oscillator (CSO) has been implemented at 11.2 GHz using a low-vibration design pulsetube cryocooler. Compared with a state-of-the-art liquid helium cooled CSO in the same laboratory, the square root Allan variance of their combined fractional frequency instability is sigma(y) = 1.4 x 10(-15)tau(-1/2) for integration times 1 < tau < 10 s, dominated by white frequency noise. The minimum sigmay = 5.3 x 10(-16) for the two oscillators was reached at tau = 20 s. Assuming equal contributions from both CSOs, the single oscillator phase noise S(phi) approximately -96 dB x rad(2)/Hz at 1 Hz set from the carrier.

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerch, F. J.; Marsh, J. G.; Klosko, S. M.; Pavlis, E. C.; Patel, G. B.; Chinn, D. S.; Wagner, C. A.

1988-01-01

Several tests were designed to determine the correct error variances for the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-T1 gravitational solution which was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method employs both wholly independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a full field coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors were further analyzed using a method based upon eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite and independent altimetric and surface gravity data sets, as well as independent satellite deep resonance information, confirm essentially the same error assessment. These calibrations (utilizing each of the major data subsets within the solution) yield very stable calibration factors which vary by approximately 10 percent over the range of tests employed. Measurements of gravity anomalies obtained from altimetry were also used directly as observations to show that GEM-T1 is calibrated. The mathematical representation of the covariance error in the presence of unmodeled systematic error effects in the data is analyzed and an optimum weighting technique is developed for these conditions. This technique yields an internal self-calibration of the error model, a process which GEM-T1 is shown to approximate.

Composite Interval Mapping Based on Lattice Design for Error Control May Increase Power of Quantitative Trait Locus Detection.

PubMed

He, Jianbo; Li, Jijie; Huang, Zhongwen; Zhao, Tuanjie; Xing, Guangnan; Gai, Junyi; Guan, Rongzhan

2015-01-01

Experimental error control is very important in quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping. Although numerous statistical methods have been developed for QTL mapping, a QTL detection model based on an appropriate experimental design that emphasizes error control has not been developed. Lattice design is very suitable for experiments with large sample sizes, which is usually required for accurate mapping of quantitative traits. However, the lack of a QTL mapping method based on lattice design dictates that the arithmetic mean or adjusted mean of each line of observations in the lattice design had to be used as a response variable, resulting in low QTL detection power. As an improvement, we developed a QTL mapping method termed composite interval mapping based on lattice design (CIMLD). In the lattice design, experimental errors are decomposed into random errors and block-within-replication errors. Four levels of block-within-replication errors were simulated to show the power of QTL detection under different error controls. The simulation results showed that the arithmetic mean method, which is equivalent to a method under random complete block design (RCBD), was very sensitive to the size of the block variance and with the increase of block variance, the power of QTL detection decreased from 51.3% to 9.4%. In contrast to the RCBD method, the power of CIMLD and the adjusted mean method did not change for different block variances. The CIMLD method showed 1.2- to 7.6-fold higher power of QTL detection than the arithmetic or adjusted mean methods. Our proposed method was applied to real soybean (Glycine max) data as an example and 10 QTLs for biomass were identified that explained 65.87% of the phenotypic variation, while only three and two QTLs were identified by arithmetic and adjusted mean methods, respectively.

Sampling design optimisation for rainfall prediction using a non-stationary geostatistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadoux, Alexandre M. J.-C.; Brus, Dick J.; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel A.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.

2017-09-01

The accuracy of spatial predictions of rainfall by merging rain-gauge and radar data is partly determined by the sampling design of the rain-gauge network. Optimising the locations of the rain-gauges may increase the accuracy of the predictions. Existing spatial sampling design optimisation methods are based on minimisation of the spatially averaged prediction error variance under the assumption of intrinsic stationarity. Over the past years, substantial progress has been made to deal with non-stationary spatial processes in kriging. Various well-documented geostatistical models relax the assumption of stationarity in the mean, while recent studies show the importance of considering non-stationarity in the variance for environmental processes occurring in complex landscapes. We optimised the sampling locations of rain-gauges using an extension of the Kriging with External Drift (KED) model for prediction of rainfall fields. The model incorporates both non-stationarity in the mean and in the variance, which are modelled as functions of external covariates such as radar imagery, distance to radar station and radar beam blockage. Spatial predictions are made repeatedly over time, each time recalibrating the model. The space-time averaged KED variance was minimised by Spatial Simulated Annealing (SSA). The methodology was tested using a case study predicting daily rainfall in the north of England for a one-year period. Results show that (i) the proposed non-stationary variance model outperforms the stationary variance model, and (ii) a small but significant decrease of the rainfall prediction error variance is obtained with the optimised rain-gauge network. In particular, it pays off to place rain-gauges at locations where the radar imagery is inaccurate, while keeping the distribution over the study area sufficiently uniform.

A Model-Free No-arbitrage Price Bound for Variance Options

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bonnans, J. Frederic, E-mail: frederic.bonnans@inria.fr; Tan Xiaolu, E-mail: xiaolu.tan@polytechnique.edu

2013-08-01

We suggest a numerical approximation for an optimization problem, motivated by its applications in finance to find the model-free no-arbitrage bound of variance options given the marginal distributions of the underlying asset. A first approximation restricts the computation to a bounded domain. Then we propose a gradient projection algorithm together with the finite difference scheme to solve the optimization problem. We prove the general convergence, and derive some convergence rate estimates. Finally, we give some numerical examples to test the efficiency of the algorithm.

Estimators for Two Measures of Association for Set Correlation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Jacob; Nee, John C. M.

1984-01-01

Two measures of association between sets of variables have been proposed for set correlation: the proportion of generalized variance, and the proportion of additionive variance. Because these measures are strongly positively biased, approximate expected values and estimators of these measures are derived and checked. (Author/BW)

Concerns about a variance approach to the X-ray diffractometric estimation of microfibril angle in wood

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; David E. Kretschmann; Victoria L. Herian; Michael Wiemann; Harry A. Alden

2010-01-01

In this paper we raise three technical concerns about Evans’s 1999 Appita Journal “variance approach” to estimating microfibril angle. The first concern is associated with the approximation of the variance of an X-ray intensity half-profile by a function of the microfibril angle and the natural variability of the microfibril angle, S2...

Using Trait-State Models to Evaluate the Longitudinal Consistency of Global Self-Esteem From Adolescence to Adulthood.

PubMed

Donnellan, M Brent; Kenny, David A; Trzesniewski, Kali H; Lucas, Richard E; Conger, Rand D

2012-12-01

The present research used a latent variable trait-state model to evaluate the longitudinal consistency of self-esteem during the transition from adolescence to adulthood. Analyses were based on ten administrations of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem scale (Rosenberg, 1965) spanning the ages of approximately 13 to 32 for a sample of 451 participants. Results indicated that a completely stable trait factor and an autoregressive trait factor accounted for the majority of the variance in latent self-esteem assessments, whereas state factors accounted for about 16% of the variance in repeated assessments of latent self-esteem. The stability of individual differences in self-esteem increased with age consistent with the cumulative continuity principle of personality development.

Using Trait-State Models to Evaluate the Longitudinal Consistency of Global Self-Esteem From Adolescence to Adulthood

PubMed Central

Donnellan, M. Brent; Kenny, David A.; Trzesniewski, Kali H.; Lucas, Richard E.; Conger, Rand D.

2012-01-01

The present research used a latent variable trait-state model to evaluate the longitudinal consistency of self-esteem during the transition from adolescence to adulthood. Analyses were based on ten administrations of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem scale (Rosenberg, 1965) spanning the ages of approximately 13 to 32 for a sample of 451 participants. Results indicated that a completely stable trait factor and an autoregressive trait factor accounted for the majority of the variance in latent self-esteem assessments, whereas state factors accounted for about 16% of the variance in repeated assessments of latent self-esteem. The stability of individual differences in self-esteem increased with age consistent with the cumulative continuity principle of personality development. PMID:23180899

Accurate evaluation of sensitivity for calibration between a LiDAR and a panoramic camera used for remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Moreno, Angel-Iván; González-Barbosa, José-Joel; Ramírez-Pedraza, Alfonso; Hurtado-Ramos, Juan B.; Ornelas-Rodriguez, Francisco-Javier

2016-04-01

Computer-based reconstruction models can be used to approximate urban environments. These models are usually based on several mathematical approximations and the usage of different sensors, which implies dependency on many variables. The sensitivity analysis presented in this paper is used to weigh the relative importance of each uncertainty contributor into the calibration of a panoramic camera-LiDAR system. Both sensors are used for three-dimensional urban reconstruction. Simulated and experimental tests were conducted. For the simulated tests we analyze and compare the calibration parameters using the Monte Carlo and Latin hypercube sampling techniques. Sensitivity analysis for each variable involved into the calibration was computed by the Sobol method, which is based on the analysis of the variance breakdown, and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test method, which is based on Fourier's analysis. Sensitivity analysis is an essential tool in simulation modeling and for performing error propagation assessments.

Efficiently estimating salmon escapement uncertainty using systematically sampled data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Joel H.; Woody, Carol Ann; Gove, Nancy E.; Fair, Lowell F.

2007-01-01

Fish escapement is generally monitored using nonreplicated systematic sampling designs (e.g., via visual counts from towers or hydroacoustic counts). These sampling designs support a variety of methods for estimating the variance of the total escapement. Unfortunately, all the methods give biased results, with the magnitude of the bias being determined by the underlying process patterns. Fish escapement commonly exhibits positive autocorrelation and nonlinear patterns, such as diurnal and seasonal patterns. For these patterns, poor choice of variance estimator can needlessly increase the uncertainty managers have to deal with in sustaining fish populations. We illustrate the effect of sampling design and variance estimator choice on variance estimates of total escapement for anadromous salmonids from systematic samples of fish passage. Using simulated tower counts of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka escapement on the Kvichak River, Alaska, five variance estimators for nonreplicated systematic samples were compared to determine the least biased. Using the least biased variance estimator, four confidence interval estimators were compared for expected coverage and mean interval width. Finally, five systematic sampling designs were compared to determine the design giving the smallest average variance estimate for total annual escapement. For nonreplicated systematic samples of fish escapement, all variance estimators were positively biased. Compared to the other estimators, the least biased estimator reduced bias by, on average, from 12% to 98%. All confidence intervals gave effectively identical results. Replicated systematic sampling designs consistently provided the smallest average estimated variance among those compared.

Analysis of Levene's Test under Design Imbalance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keyes, Tim K.; Levy, Martin S.

1997-01-01

H. Levene (1960) proposed a heuristic test for heteroscedasticity in the case of a balanced two-way layout, based on analysis of variance of absolute residuals. Conditions under which design imbalance affects the test's characteristics are identified, and a simple correction involving leverage is proposed. (SLD)

Approximations to camera sensor noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xiaodan; Hirakawa, Keigo

2013-02-01

Noise is present in all image sensor data. Poisson distribution is said to model the stochastic nature of the photon arrival process, while it is common to approximate readout/thermal noise by additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). Other sources of signal-dependent noise such as Fano and quantization also contribute to the overall noise profile. Question remains, however, about how best to model the combined sensor noise. Though additive Gaussian noise with signal-dependent noise variance (SD-AWGN) and Poisson corruption are two widely used models to approximate the actual sensor noise distribution, the justification given to these types of models are based on limited evidence. The goal of this paper is to provide a more comprehensive characterization of random noise. We concluded by presenting concrete evidence that Poisson model is a better approximation to real camera model than SD-AWGN. We suggest further modification to Poisson that may improve the noise model.

On the validity of within-nuclear-family genetic association analysis in samples of extended families.

PubMed

Bureau, Alexandre; Duchesne, Thierry

2015-12-01

Splitting extended families into their component nuclear families to apply a genetic association method designed for nuclear families is a widespread practice in familial genetic studies. Dependence among genotypes and phenotypes of nuclear families from the same extended family arises because of genetic linkage of the tested marker with a risk variant or because of familial specificity of genetic effects due to gene-environment interaction. This raises concerns about the validity of inference conducted under the assumption of independence of the nuclear families. We indeed prove theoretically that, in a conditional logistic regression analysis applicable to disease cases and their genotyped parents, the naive model-based estimator of the variance of the coefficient estimates underestimates the true variance. However, simulations with realistic effect sizes of risk variants and variation of this effect from family to family reveal that the underestimation is negligible. The simulations also show the greater efficiency of the model-based variance estimator compared to a robust empirical estimator. Our recommendation is therefore, to use the model-based estimator of variance for inference on effects of genetic variants.

On the Computation of the RMSEA and CFI from the Mean-And-Variance Corrected Test Statistic with Nonnormal Data in SEM.

PubMed

Savalei, Victoria

2018-01-01

A new type of nonnormality correction to the RMSEA has recently been developed, which has several advantages over existing corrections. In particular, the new correction adjusts the sample estimate of the RMSEA for the inflation due to nonnormality, while leaving its population value unchanged, so that established cutoff criteria can still be used to judge the degree of approximate fit. A confidence interval (CI) for the new robust RMSEA based on the mean-corrected ("Satorra-Bentler") test statistic has also been proposed. Follow up work has provided the same type of nonnormality correction for the CFI (Brosseau-Liard & Savalei, 2014). These developments have recently been implemented in lavaan. This note has three goals: a) to show how to compute the new robust RMSEA and CFI from the mean-and-variance corrected test statistic; b) to offer a new CI for the robust RMSEA based on the mean-and-variance corrected test statistic; and c) to caution that the logic of the new nonnormality corrections to RMSEA and CFI is most appropriate for the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, and cannot easily be generalized to the most commonly used categorical data estimators.

The comparison of various approach to evaluation erosion risks and design control erosion measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapicka, Jiri

2015-04-01

In the present is in the Czech Republic one methodology how to compute and compare erosion risks. This methodology contain also method to design erosion control measures. The base of this methodology is Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and their result long-term average annual rate of erosion (G). This methodology is used for landscape planners. Data and statistics from database of erosion events in the Czech Republic shows that many troubles and damages are from local episodes of erosion events. An extent of these events and theirs impact are conditional to local precipitation events, current plant phase and soil conditions. These erosion events can do troubles and damages on agriculture land, municipally property and hydro components and even in a location is from point of view long-term average annual rate of erosion in good conditions. Other way how to compute and compare erosion risks is episodes approach. In this paper is presented the compare of various approach to compute erosion risks. The comparison was computed to locality from database of erosion events on agricultural land in the Czech Republic where have been records two erosion events. The study area is a simple agriculture land without any barriers that can have high influence to water flow and soil sediment transport. The computation of erosion risks (for all methodology) was based on laboratory analysis of soil samples which was sampled on study area. Results of the methodology USLE, MUSLE and results from mathematical model Erosion 3D have been compared. Variances of the results in space distribution of the places with highest soil erosion where compared and discussed. Other part presents variances of design control erosion measures where their design was done on based different methodology. The results shows variance of computed erosion risks which was done by different methodology. These variances can start discussion about different approach how compute and evaluate erosion risks in areas with different importance.

The Psychometric Properties of the Smartphone Application-Based Addiction Scale (SABAS).

PubMed

Csibi, Sándor; Griffiths, Mark D; Cook, Brian; Demetrovics, Zsolt; Szabo, Attila

2018-01-01

The goal of the study was to validate the English version of the Smartphone Application-Based Addiction Scale (SABAS; Csibi et al. 2016), which is a short and easy-to-use tool for screening the risk of smartphone application-based addiction. Another aim was to identify the most frequently used smartphone applications and their perceived importance by the participants. Data were collected online from 240 English-speaking volunteers, aged 18 to 69 years. The instruments used were the SABAS, the Nomophobia Questionnaire (NMP-Q), the Brief Sensation Seeking Scale (BSSS), the Deprivation Sensation Scale (DSS), and the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Participants also ranked the importance of their most frequently used smartphone applications. The six items of the SABAS yielded one component, which accounted for 52.38% of the total variance. The internal reliability of the scale was good (Cronbach's alpha 0.81). NMP-Q was a significant predictor of SABAS, explaining 17.6% of the total variance. The regression analysis, with SABAS score as the dependent variable and NMP-Q, DSS, PHQ-9, and BSSS scores as predictors, indicated that approximately 47% of the variance in SABAS was accounted for by the predictors ( R 2  = 0.47). The English version of the SABAS appears to be a valid and reliable ultra-brief tool for a quick and easy assessment of smartphone application-based addiction symptoms.

Control algorithms for dynamic attenuators

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Scott S.; Pelc, Norbert J.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The authors describe algorithms to control dynamic attenuators in CT and compare their performance using simulated scans. Dynamic attenuators are prepatient beam shaping filters that modulate the distribution of x-ray fluence incident on the patient on a view-by-view basis. These attenuators can reduce dose while improving key image quality metrics such as peak or mean variance. In each view, the attenuator presents several degrees of freedom which may be individually adjusted. The total number of degrees of freedom across all views is very large, making many optimization techniques impractical. The authors develop a theory for optimally controlling these attenuators. Special attention is paid to a theoretically perfect attenuator which controls the fluence for each ray individually, but the authors also investigate and compare three other, practical attenuator designs which have been previously proposed: the piecewise-linear attenuator, the translating attenuator, and the double wedge attenuator. Methods: The authors pose and solve the optimization problems of minimizing the mean and peak variance subject to a fixed dose limit. For a perfect attenuator and mean variance minimization, this problem can be solved in simple, closed form. For other attenuator designs, the problem can be decomposed into separate problems for each view to greatly reduce the computational complexity. Peak variance minimization can be approximately solved using iterated, weighted mean variance (WMV) minimization. Also, the authors develop heuristics for the perfect and piecewise-linear attenuators which do not require a priori knowledge of the patient anatomy. The authors compare these control algorithms on different types of dynamic attenuators using simulated raw data from forward projected DICOM files of a thorax and an abdomen. Results: The translating and double wedge attenuators reduce dose by an average of 30% relative to current techniques (bowtie filter with tube current modulation) without increasing peak variance. The 15-element piecewise-linear dynamic attenuator reduces dose by an average of 42%, and the perfect attenuator reduces dose by an average of 50%. Improvements in peak variance are several times larger than improvements in mean variance. Heuristic control eliminates the need for a prescan. For the piecewise-linear attenuator, the cost of heuristic control is an increase in dose of 9%. The proposed iterated WMV minimization produces results that are within a few percent of the true solution. Conclusions: Dynamic attenuators show potential for significant dose reduction. A wide class of dynamic attenuators can be accurately controlled using the described methods. PMID:24877818

Combat Exposure Severity as a Moderator of Genetic and Environmental Liability to Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

PubMed Central

Wolf, Erika J.; Mitchell, Karen S.; Koenen, Karestan C.; Miller, Mark W.

2014-01-01

Background Twin studies of veterans and adults suggest that approximately 30–46% of the variance in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is attributable to genetic factors. The remaining variance is attributable to the non-shared environment, which, by definition, includes combat exposure. This study used a gene by measured environment twin design to examine if the effect of genetic and environmental factors that contribute to the etiology PTSD were dependent on level of combat exposure. Methods The sample was drawn from the Vietnam Era Twin Registry and included 620 male-male twin pairs who served in the U.S. Military in South East Asia during the Vietnam War era. Analyses were based on data from a clinical diagnostic interview of lifetime PTSD symptoms and a self-report measure of combat exposure. Results Biometric modeling revealed that the effect of genetic and non-shared environment factors on PTSD varied as a function of level of combat exposure such that the association between these factors and PTSD was stronger at higher levels of combat exposure. Conclusions Combat exposure may act as a catalyst that augments the impact of hereditary and environmental contributions to PTSD. Individuals with the greatest exposure to combat trauma were at increased risk for PTSD as a function of both genetic and other environmental factors. Additional work is needed to determine the biological and environmental mechanisms driving these associations. PMID:24001428

Combat exposure severity as a moderator of genetic and environmental liability to post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Wolf, E J; Mitchell, K S; Koenen, K C; Miller, M W

2014-05-01

Twin studies of veterans and adults suggest that approximately 30-46% of the variance in post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is attributable to genetic factors. The remaining variance is attributable to the non-shared environment, which, by definition, includes combat exposure. This study used a gene by measured environment twin design to determine whether the effects of genetic and environmental factors that contribute to the etiology of PTSD are dependent on the level of combat exposure. The sample was drawn from the Vietnam Era Twin Registry (VETR) and included 620 male-male twin pairs who served in the US Military in South East Asia during the Vietnam War era. Analyses were based on data from a clinical diagnostic interview of lifetime PTSD symptoms and a self-report measure of combat exposure. Biometric modeling revealed that the effects of genetic and non-shared environment factors on PTSD varied as a function of level of combat exposure such that the association between these factors and PTSD was stronger at higher levels of combat exposure. Combat exposure may act as a catalyst that augments the impact of hereditary and environmental contributions to PTSD. Individuals with the greatest exposure to combat trauma were at increased risk for PTSD as a function of both genetic and environmental factors. Additional work is needed to determine the biological and environmental mechanisms driving these associations.

Construction of nested maximin designs based on successive local enumeration and modified novel global harmony search algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Jin; Li, Xinyu; Xiao, Mi; Xu, Junnan; Zhang, Lin

2017-01-01

Engineering design often involves different types of simulation, which results in expensive computational costs. Variable fidelity approximation-based design optimization approaches can realize effective simulation and efficiency optimization of the design space using approximation models with different levels of fidelity and have been widely used in different fields. As the foundations of variable fidelity approximation models, the selection of sample points of variable-fidelity approximation, called nested designs, is essential. In this article a novel nested maximin Latin hypercube design is constructed based on successive local enumeration and a modified novel global harmony search algorithm. In the proposed nested designs, successive local enumeration is employed to select sample points for a low-fidelity model, whereas the modified novel global harmony search algorithm is employed to select sample points for a high-fidelity model. A comparative study with multiple criteria and an engineering application are employed to verify the efficiency of the proposed nested designs approach.

On the Relations among Regular, Equal Unique Variances, and Image Factor Analysis Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayashi, Kentaro; Bentler, Peter M.

2000-01-01

Investigated the conditions under which the matrix of factor loadings from the factor analysis model with equal unique variances will give a good approximation to the matrix of factor loadings from the regular factor analysis model. Extends the results to the image factor analysis model. Discusses implications for practice. (SLD)

Assessing variance components in multilevel linear models using approximate Bayes factors: A case study of ethnic disparities in birthweight

PubMed Central

Saville, Benjamin R.; Herring, Amy H.; Kaufman, Jay S.

2013-01-01

Racial/ethnic disparities in birthweight are a large source of differential morbidity and mortality worldwide and have remained largely unexplained in epidemiologic models. We assess the impact of maternal ancestry and census tract residence on infant birth weights in New York City and the modifying effects of race and nativity by incorporating random effects in a multilevel linear model. Evaluating the significance of these predictors involves the test of whether the variances of the random effects are equal to zero. This is problematic because the null hypothesis lies on the boundary of the parameter space. We generalize an approach for assessing random effects in the two-level linear model to a broader class of multilevel linear models by scaling the random effects to the residual variance and introducing parameters that control the relative contribution of the random effects. After integrating over the random effects and variance components, the resulting integrals needed to calculate the Bayes factor can be efficiently approximated with Laplace’s method. PMID:24082430

Some variance reduction methods for numerical stochastic homogenization

PubMed Central

Blanc, X.; Le Bris, C.; Legoll, F.

2016-01-01

We give an overview of a series of recent studies devoted to variance reduction techniques for numerical stochastic homogenization. Numerical homogenization requires that a set of problems is solved at the microscale, the so-called corrector problems. In a random environment, these problems are stochastic and therefore need to be repeatedly solved, for several configurations of the medium considered. An empirical average over all configurations is then performed using the Monte Carlo approach, so as to approximate the effective coefficients necessary to determine the macroscopic behaviour. Variance severely affects the accuracy and the cost of such computations. Variance reduction approaches, borrowed from other contexts in the engineering sciences, can be useful. Some of these variance reduction techniques are presented, studied and tested here. PMID:27002065

Helicopter Control Energy Reduction Using Moving Horizontal Tail

PubMed Central

Oktay, Tugrul; Sal, Firat

2015-01-01

Helicopter moving horizontal tail (i.e., MHT) strategy is applied in order to save helicopter flight control system (i.e., FCS) energy. For this intention complex, physics-based, control-oriented nonlinear helicopter models are used. Equations of MHT are integrated into these models and they are together linearized around straight level flight condition. A specific variance constrained control strategy, namely, output variance constrained Control (i.e., OVC) is utilized for helicopter FCS. Control energy savings due to this MHT idea with respect to a conventional helicopter are calculated. Parameters of helicopter FCS and dimensions of MHT are simultaneously optimized using a stochastic optimization method, namely, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (i.e., SPSA). In order to observe improvement in behaviors of classical controls closed loop analyses are done. PMID:26180841

Refractive index variance of cells and tissues measured by quantitative phase imaging.

PubMed

Shan, Mingguang; Kandel, Mikhail E; Popescu, Gabriel

2017-01-23

The refractive index distribution of cells and tissues governs their interaction with light and can report on morphological modifications associated with disease. Through intensity-based measurements, refractive index information can be extracted only via scattering models that approximate light propagation. As a result, current knowledge of refractive index distributions across various tissues and cell types remains limited. Here we use quantitative phase imaging and the statistical dispersion relation (SDR) to extract information about the refractive index variance in a variety of specimens. Due to the phase-resolved measurement in three-dimensions, our approach yields refractive index results without prior knowledge about the tissue thickness. With the recent progress in quantitative phase imaging systems, we anticipate that using SDR will become routine in assessing tissue optical properties.

Minimal-Approximation-Based Distributed Consensus Tracking of a Class of Uncertain Nonlinear Multiagent Systems With Unknown Control Directions.

PubMed

Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

2017-03-28

A minimal-approximation-based distributed adaptive consensus tracking approach is presented for strict-feedback multiagent systems with unknown heterogeneous nonlinearities and control directions under a directed network. Existing approximation-based consensus results for uncertain nonlinear multiagent systems in lower-triangular form have used multiple function approximators in each local controller to approximate unmatched nonlinearities of each follower. Thus, as the follower's order increases, the number of the approximators used in its local controller increases. However, the proposed approach employs only one function approximator to construct the local controller of each follower regardless of the order of the follower. The recursive design methodology using a new error transformation is derived for the proposed minimal-approximation-based design. Furthermore, a bounding lemma on parameters of Nussbaum functions is presented to handle the unknown control direction problem in the minimal-approximation-based distributed consensus tracking framework and the stability of the overall closed-loop system is rigorously analyzed in the Lyapunov sense.

Impact of fitting dominance and additive effects on accuracy of genomic prediction of breeding values in layers.

PubMed

Heidaritabar, M; Wolc, A; Arango, J; Zeng, J; Settar, P; Fulton, J E; O'Sullivan, N P; Bastiaansen, J W M; Fernando, R L; Garrick, D J; Dekkers, J C M

2016-10-01

Most genomic prediction studies fit only additive effects in models to estimate genomic breeding values (GEBV). However, if dominance genetic effects are an important source of variation for complex traits, accounting for them may improve the accuracy of GEBV. We investigated the effect of fitting dominance and additive effects on the accuracy of GEBV for eight egg production and quality traits in a purebred line of brown layers using pedigree or genomic information (42K single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panel). Phenotypes were corrected for the effect of hatch date. Additive and dominance genetic variances were estimated using genomic-based [genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP)-REML and BayesC] and pedigree-based (PBLUP-REML) methods. Breeding values were predicted using a model that included both additive and dominance effects and a model that included only additive effects. The reference population consisted of approximately 1800 animals hatched between 2004 and 2009, while approximately 300 young animals hatched in 2010 were used for validation. Accuracy of prediction was computed as the correlation between phenotypes and estimated breeding values of the validation animals divided by the square root of the estimate of heritability in the whole population. The proportion of dominance variance to total phenotypic variance ranged from 0.03 to 0.22 with PBLUP-REML across traits, from 0 to 0.03 with GBLUP-REML and from 0.01 to 0.05 with BayesC. Accuracies of GEBV ranged from 0.28 to 0.60 across traits. Inclusion of dominance effects did not improve the accuracy of GEBV, and differences in their accuracies between genomic-based methods were small (0.01-0.05), with GBLUP-REML yielding higher prediction accuracies than BayesC for egg production, egg colour and yolk weight, while BayesC yielded higher accuracies than GBLUP-REML for the other traits. In conclusion, fitting dominance effects did not impact accuracy of genomic prediction of breeding values in this population. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Guidelines for the design and statistical analysis of experiments in papers submitted to ATLA.

PubMed

Festing, M F

2001-01-01

In vitro experiments need to be well designed and correctly analysed if they are to achieve their full potential to replace the use of animals in research. An "experiment" is a procedure for collecting scientific data in order to answer a hypothesis, or to provide material for generating new hypotheses, and differs from a survey because the scientist has control over the treatments that can be applied. Most experiments can be classified into one of a few formal designs, the most common being completely randomised, and randomised block designs. These are quite common with in vitro experiments, which are often replicated in time. Some experiments involve a single independent (treatment) variable, while other "factorial" designs simultaneously vary two or more independent variables, such as drug treatment and cell line. Factorial designs often provide additional information at little extra cost. Experiments need to be carefully planned to avoid bias, be powerful yet simple, provide for a valid statistical analysis and, in some cases, have a wide range of applicability. Virtually all experiments need some sort of statistical analysis in order to take account of biological variation among the experimental subjects. Parametric methods using the t test or analysis of variance are usually more powerful than non-parametric methods, provided the underlying assumptions of normality of the residuals and equal variances are approximately valid. The statistical analyses of data from a completely randomised design, and from a randomised-block design are demonstrated in Appendices 1 and 2, and methods of determining sample size are discussed in Appendix 3. Appendix 4 gives a checklist for authors submitting papers to ATLA.

Sensitivity analysis and approximation methods for general eigenvalue problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, D. V.; Haftka, R. T.

1986-01-01

Optimization of dynamic systems involving complex non-hermitian matrices is often computationally expensive. Major contributors to the computational expense are the sensitivity analysis and reanalysis of a modified design. The present work seeks to alleviate this computational burden by identifying efficient sensitivity analysis and approximate reanalysis methods. For the algebraic eigenvalue problem involving non-hermitian matrices, algorithms for sensitivity analysis and approximate reanalysis are classified, compared and evaluated for efficiency and accuracy. Proper eigenvector normalization is discussed. An improved method for calculating derivatives of eigenvectors is proposed based on a more rational normalization condition and taking advantage of matrix sparsity. Important numerical aspects of this method are also discussed. To alleviate the problem of reanalysis, various approximation methods for eigenvalues are proposed and evaluated. Linear and quadratic approximations are based directly on the Taylor series. Several approximation methods are developed based on the generalized Rayleigh quotient for the eigenvalue problem. Approximation methods based on trace theorem give high accuracy without needing any derivatives. Operation counts for the computation of the approximations are given. General recommendations are made for the selection of appropriate approximation technique as a function of the matrix size, number of design variables, number of eigenvalues of interest and the number of design points at which approximation is sought.

Linear score tests for variance components in linear mixed models and applications to genetic association studies.

PubMed

Qu, Long; Guennel, Tobias; Marshall, Scott L

2013-12-01

Following the rapid development of genome-scale genotyping technologies, genetic association mapping has become a popular tool to detect genomic regions responsible for certain (disease) phenotypes, especially in early-phase pharmacogenomic studies with limited sample size. In response to such applications, a good association test needs to be (1) applicable to a wide range of possible genetic models, including, but not limited to, the presence of gene-by-environment or gene-by-gene interactions and non-linearity of a group of marker effects, (2) accurate in small samples, fast to compute on the genomic scale, and amenable to large scale multiple testing corrections, and (3) reasonably powerful to locate causal genomic regions. The kernel machine method represented in linear mixed models provides a viable solution by transforming the problem into testing the nullity of variance components. In this study, we consider score-based tests by choosing a statistic linear in the score function. When the model under the null hypothesis has only one error variance parameter, our test is exact in finite samples. When the null model has more than one variance parameter, we develop a new moment-based approximation that performs well in simulations. Through simulations and analysis of real data, we demonstrate that the new test possesses most of the aforementioned characteristics, especially when compared to existing quadratic score tests or restricted likelihood ratio tests. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Automatic treatment of the variance estimation bias in TRIPOLI-4 criticality calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dumonteil, E.; Malvagi, F.

2012-07-01

The central limit (CLT) theorem States conditions under which the mean of a sufficiently large number of independent random variables, each with finite mean and variance, will be approximately normally distributed. The use of Monte Carlo transport codes, such as Tripoli4, relies on those conditions. While these are verified in protection applications (the cycles provide independent measurements of fluxes and related quantities), the hypothesis of independent estimates/cycles is broken in criticality mode. Indeed the power iteration technique used in this mode couples a generation to its progeny. Often, after what is called 'source convergence' this coupling almost disappears (the solutionmore » is closed to equilibrium) but for loosely coupled systems, such as for PWR or large nuclear cores, the equilibrium is never found, or at least may take time to reach, and the variance estimation such as allowed by the CLT is under-evaluated. In this paper we first propose, by the mean of two different methods, to evaluate the typical correlation length, as measured in cycles number, and then use this information to diagnose correlation problems and to provide an improved variance estimation. Those two methods are based on Fourier spectral decomposition and on the lag k autocorrelation calculation. A theoretical modeling of the autocorrelation function, based on Gauss-Markov stochastic processes, will also be presented. Tests will be performed with Tripoli4 on a PWR pin cell. (authors)« less

Use of a threshold animal model to estimate calving ease and stillbirth (co)variance components for US Holsteins

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

(Co)variance components for calving ease and stillbirth in US Holsteins were estimated using a single-trait threshold animal model and two different sets of data edits. Six sets of approximately 250,000 records each were created by randomly selecting herd codes without replacement from the data used...

Variance estimation when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with survival analysis.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2016-12-30

Propensity score methods are used to reduce the effects of observed confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments or exposures. A popular method of using the propensity score is inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). When using this method, a weight is calculated for each subject that is equal to the inverse of the probability of receiving the treatment that was actually received. These weights are then incorporated into the analyses to minimize the effects of observed confounding. Previous research has found that these methods result in unbiased estimation when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes. However, conventional methods of variance estimation were shown to result in biased estimates of standard error. In this study, we conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations to examine different methods of variance estimation when using a weighted Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the effect of treatment. We considered three variance estimation methods: (i) a naïve model-based variance estimator; (ii) a robust sandwich-type variance estimator; and (iii) a bootstrap variance estimator. We considered estimation of both the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect in the treated. We found that the use of a bootstrap estimator resulted in approximately correct estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates. The other estimators resulted in biased estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with incorrect coverage rates. Our simulations were informed by a case study examining the effect of statin prescribing on mortality. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Statistical aspects of quantitative real-time PCR experiment design.

PubMed

Kitchen, Robert R; Kubista, Mikael; Tichopad, Ales

2010-04-01

Experiments using quantitative real-time PCR to test hypotheses are limited by technical and biological variability; we seek to minimise sources of confounding variability through optimum use of biological and technical replicates. The quality of an experiment design is commonly assessed by calculating its prospective power. Such calculations rely on knowledge of the expected variances of the measurements of each group of samples and the magnitude of the treatment effect; the estimation of which is often uninformed and unreliable. Here we introduce a method that exploits a small pilot study to estimate the biological and technical variances in order to improve the design of a subsequent large experiment. We measure the variance contributions at several 'levels' of the experiment design and provide a means of using this information to predict both the total variance and the prospective power of the assay. A validation of the method is provided through a variance analysis of representative genes in several bovine tissue-types. We also discuss the effect of normalisation to a reference gene in terms of the measured variance components of the gene of interest. Finally, we describe a software implementation of these methods, powerNest, that gives the user the opportunity to input data from a pilot study and interactively modify the design of the assay. The software automatically calculates expected variances, statistical power, and optimal design of the larger experiment. powerNest enables the researcher to minimise the total confounding variance and maximise prospective power for a specified maximum cost for the large study. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Control of large flexible structures - An experiment on the NASA Mini-Mast facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsieh, Chen; Kim, Jae H.; Liu, Ketao; Zhu, Guoming; Skelton, Robert E.

1991-01-01

The output variance constraint controller design procedure is integrated with model reduction by modal cost analysis. A procedure is given for tuning MIMO controller designs to find the maximal rms performance of the actual system. Controller designs based on a finite-element model of the system are compared with controller designs based on an identified model (obtained using the Q-Markov Cover algorithm). The identified model and the finite-element model led to similar closed-loop performance, when tested in the Mini-Mast facility at NASA Langley.

Estimation of Noise Properties for TV-regularized Image Reconstruction in Computed Tomography

PubMed Central

Sánchez, Adrian A.

2016-01-01

A method for predicting the image covariance resulting from total-variation-penalized iterative image reconstruction (TV-penalized IIR) is presented and demonstrated in a variety of contexts. The method is validated against the sample covariance from statistical noise realizations for a small image using a variety of comparison metrics. Potential applications for the covariance approximation include investigation of image properties such as object- and signal-dependence of noise, and noise stationarity. These applications are demonstrated, along with the construction of image pixel variance maps for two-dimensional 128 × 128 pixel images. Methods for extending the proposed covariance approximation to larger images and improving computational efficiency are discussed. Future work will apply the developed methodology to the construction of task-based image quality metrics such as the Hotelling observer detectability for TV-based IIR. PMID:26308968

Estimation of noise properties for TV-regularized image reconstruction in computed tomography.

PubMed

Sánchez, Adrian A

2015-09-21

A method for predicting the image covariance resulting from total-variation-penalized iterative image reconstruction (TV-penalized IIR) is presented and demonstrated in a variety of contexts. The method is validated against the sample covariance from statistical noise realizations for a small image using a variety of comparison metrics. Potential applications for the covariance approximation include investigation of image properties such as object- and signal-dependence of noise, and noise stationarity. These applications are demonstrated, along with the construction of image pixel variance maps for two-dimensional 128 × 128 pixel images. Methods for extending the proposed covariance approximation to larger images and improving computational efficiency are discussed. Future work will apply the developed methodology to the construction of task-based image quality metrics such as the Hotelling observer detectability for TV-based IIR.

Estimation of noise properties for TV-regularized image reconstruction in computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez, Adrian A.

2015-09-01

A method for predicting the image covariance resulting from total-variation-penalized iterative image reconstruction (TV-penalized IIR) is presented and demonstrated in a variety of contexts. The method is validated against the sample covariance from statistical noise realizations for a small image using a variety of comparison metrics. Potential applications for the covariance approximation include investigation of image properties such as object- and signal-dependence of noise, and noise stationarity. These applications are demonstrated, along with the construction of image pixel variance maps for two-dimensional 128× 128 pixel images. Methods for extending the proposed covariance approximation to larger images and improving computational efficiency are discussed. Future work will apply the developed methodology to the construction of task-based image quality metrics such as the Hotelling observer detectability for TV-based IIR.

Estimating multilevel logistic regression models when the number of clusters is low: a comparison of different statistical software procedures.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2010-04-22

Multilevel logistic regression models are increasingly being used to analyze clustered data in medical, public health, epidemiological, and educational research. Procedures for estimating the parameters of such models are available in many statistical software packages. There is currently little evidence on the minimum number of clusters necessary to reliably fit multilevel regression models. We conducted a Monte Carlo study to compare the performance of different statistical software procedures for estimating multilevel logistic regression models when the number of clusters was low. We examined procedures available in BUGS, HLM, R, SAS, and Stata. We found that there were qualitative differences in the performance of different software procedures for estimating multilevel logistic models when the number of clusters was low. Among the likelihood-based procedures, estimation methods based on adaptive Gauss-Hermite approximations to the likelihood (glmer in R and xtlogit in Stata) or adaptive Gaussian quadrature (Proc NLMIXED in SAS) tended to have superior performance for estimating variance components when the number of clusters was small, compared to software procedures based on penalized quasi-likelihood. However, only Bayesian estimation with BUGS allowed for accurate estimation of variance components when there were fewer than 10 clusters. For all statistical software procedures, estimation of variance components tended to be poor when there were only five subjects per cluster, regardless of the number of clusters.

Fast Minimum Variance Beamforming Based on Legendre Polynomials.

PubMed

Bae, MooHo; Park, Sung Bae; Kwon, Sung Jae

2016-09-01

Currently, minimum variance beamforming (MV) is actively investigated as a method that can improve the performance of an ultrasound beamformer, in terms of the lateral and contrast resolution. However, this method has the disadvantage of excessive computational complexity since the inverse spatial covariance matrix must be calculated. Some noteworthy methods among various attempts to solve this problem include beam space adaptive beamforming methods and the fast MV method based on principal component analysis, which are similar in that the original signal in the element space is transformed to another domain using an orthonormal basis matrix and the dimension of the covariance matrix is reduced by approximating the matrix only with important components of the matrix, hence making the inversion of the matrix very simple. Recently, we proposed a new method with further reduced computational demand that uses Legendre polynomials as the basis matrix for such a transformation. In this paper, we verify the efficacy of the proposed method through Field II simulations as well as in vitro and in vivo experiments. The results show that the approximation error of this method is less than or similar to those of the above-mentioned methods and that the lateral response of point targets and the contrast-to-speckle noise in anechoic cysts are also better than or similar to those methods when the dimensionality of the covariance matrices is reduced to the same dimension.

Characterizing the D2 statistic: word matches in biological sequences.

PubMed

Forêt, Sylvain; Wilson, Susan R; Burden, Conrad J

2009-01-01

Word matches are often used in sequence comparison methods, either as a measure of sequence similarity or in the first search steps of algorithms such as BLAST or BLAT. The D2 statistic is the number of matches of words of k letters between two sequences. Recent advances have been made in the characterization of this statistic and in the approximation of its distribution. Here, these results are extended to the case of approximate word matches. We compute the exact value of the variance of the D2 statistic for the case of a uniform letter distribution, and introduce a method to provide accurate approximations of the variance in the remaining cases. This enables the distribution of D2 to be approximated for typical situations arising in biological research. We apply these results to the identification of cis-regulatory modules, and show that this method detects such sequences with a high accuracy. The ability to approximate the distribution of D2 for both exact and approximate word matches will enable the use of this statistic in a more precise manner for sequence comparison, database searches, and identification of transcription factor binding sites.

Approximation of reliabilities for multiple-trait model with maternal effects.

PubMed

Strabel, T; Misztal, I; Bertrand, J K

2001-04-01

Reliabilities for a multiple-trait maternal model were obtained by combining reliabilities obtained from single-trait models. Single-trait reliabilities were obtained using an approximation that supported models with additive and permanent environmental effects. For the direct effect, the maternal and permanent environmental variances were assigned to the residual. For the maternal effect, variance of the direct effect was assigned to the residual. Data included 10,550 birth weight, 11,819 weaning weight, and 3,617 postweaning gain records of Senepol cattle. Reliabilities were obtained by generalized inversion and by using single-trait and multiple-trait approximation methods. Some reliabilities obtained by inversion were negative because inbreeding was ignored in calculating the inverse of the relationship matrix. The multiple-trait approximation method reduced the bias of approximation when compared with the single-trait method. The correlations between reliabilities obtained by inversion and by multiple-trait procedures for the direct effect were 0.85 for birth weight, 0.94 for weaning weight, and 0.96 for postweaning gain. Correlations for maternal effects for birth weight and weaning weight were 0.96 to 0.98 for both approximations. Further improvements can be achieved by refining the single-trait procedures.

Some variance reduction methods for numerical stochastic homogenization.

PubMed

Blanc, X; Le Bris, C; Legoll, F

2016-04-28

We give an overview of a series of recent studies devoted to variance reduction techniques for numerical stochastic homogenization. Numerical homogenization requires that a set of problems is solved at the microscale, the so-called corrector problems. In a random environment, these problems are stochastic and therefore need to be repeatedly solved, for several configurations of the medium considered. An empirical average over all configurations is then performed using the Monte Carlo approach, so as to approximate the effective coefficients necessary to determine the macroscopic behaviour. Variance severely affects the accuracy and the cost of such computations. Variance reduction approaches, borrowed from other contexts in the engineering sciences, can be useful. Some of these variance reduction techniques are presented, studied and tested here. © 2016 The Author(s).

Model-based Acceleration Control of Turbofan Engines with a Hammerstein-Wiener Representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiqiang; Ye, Zhifeng; Hu, Zhongzhi; Wu, Xin; Dimirovsky, Georgi; Yue, Hong

2017-05-01

Acceleration control of turbofan engines is conventionally designed through either schedule-based or acceleration-based approach. With the widespread acceptance of model-based design in aviation industry, it becomes necessary to investigate the issues associated with model-based design for acceleration control. In this paper, the challenges for implementing model-based acceleration control are explained; a novel Hammerstein-Wiener representation of engine models is introduced; based on the Hammerstein-Wiener model, a nonlinear generalized minimum variance type of optimal control law is derived; the feature of the proposed approach is that it does not require the inversion operation that usually upsets those nonlinear control techniques. The effectiveness of the proposed control design method is validated through a detailed numerical study.

Empirical single sample quantification of bias and variance in Q-ball imaging.

PubMed

Hainline, Allison E; Nath, Vishwesh; Parvathaneni, Prasanna; Blaber, Justin A; Schilling, Kurt G; Anderson, Adam W; Kang, Hakmook; Landman, Bennett A

2018-02-06

The bias and variance of high angular resolution diffusion imaging methods have not been thoroughly explored in the literature and may benefit from the simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) and bootstrap techniques to estimate bias and variance of high angular resolution diffusion imaging metrics. The SIMEX approach is well established in the statistics literature and uses simulation of increasingly noisy data to extrapolate back to a hypothetical case with no noise. The bias of calculated metrics can then be computed by subtracting the SIMEX estimate from the original pointwise measurement. The SIMEX technique has been studied in the context of diffusion imaging to accurately capture the bias in fractional anisotropy measurements in DTI. Herein, we extend the application of SIMEX and bootstrap approaches to characterize bias and variance in metrics obtained from a Q-ball imaging reconstruction of high angular resolution diffusion imaging data. The results demonstrate that SIMEX and bootstrap approaches provide consistent estimates of the bias and variance of generalized fractional anisotropy, respectively. The RMSE for the generalized fractional anisotropy estimates shows a 7% decrease in white matter and an 8% decrease in gray matter when compared with the observed generalized fractional anisotropy estimates. On average, the bootstrap technique results in SD estimates that are approximately 97% of the true variation in white matter, and 86% in gray matter. Both SIMEX and bootstrap methods are flexible, estimate population characteristics based on single scans, and may be extended for bias and variance estimation on a variety of high angular resolution diffusion imaging metrics. © 2018 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Mixed-Poisson Point Process with Partially-Observed Covariates: Ecological Momentary Assessment of Smoking.

PubMed

Neustifter, Benjamin; Rathbun, Stephen L; Shiffman, Saul

2012-01-01

Ecological Momentary Assessment is an emerging method of data collection in behavioral research that may be used to capture the times of repeated behavioral events on electronic devices, and information on subjects' psychological states through the electronic administration of questionnaires at times selected from a probability-based design as well as the event times. A method for fitting a mixed Poisson point process model is proposed for the impact of partially-observed, time-varying covariates on the timing of repeated behavioral events. A random frailty is included in the point-process intensity to describe variation among subjects in baseline rates of event occurrence. Covariate coefficients are estimated using estimating equations constructed by replacing the integrated intensity in the Poisson score equations with a design-unbiased estimator. An estimator is also proposed for the variance of the random frailties. Our estimators are robust in the sense that no model assumptions are made regarding the distribution of the time-varying covariates or the distribution of the random effects. However, subject effects are estimated under gamma frailties using an approximate hierarchical likelihood. The proposed approach is illustrated using smoking data.

Developing the design of a continuous national health survey for New Zealand

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A continuously operating survey can yield advantages in survey management, field operations, and the provision of timely information for policymakers and researchers. We describe the key features of the sample design of the New Zealand (NZ) Health Survey, which has been conducted on a continuous basis since mid-2011, and compare to a number of other national population health surveys. Methods A number of strategies to improve the NZ Health Survey are described: implementation of a targeted dual-frame sample design for better Māori, Pacific, and Asian statistics; movement from periodic to continuous operation; use of core questions with rotating topic modules to improve flexibility in survey content; and opportunities for ongoing improvements and efficiencies, including linkage to administrative datasets. Results and discussion The use of disproportionate area sampling and a dual frame design resulted in reductions of approximately 19%, 26%, and 4% to variances of Māori, Pacific and Asian statistics respectively, but at the cost of a 17% increase to all-ethnicity variances. These were broadly in line with the survey’s priorities. Respondents provided a high degree of cooperation in the first year, with an adult response rate of 79% and consent rates for data linkage above 90%. Conclusions A combination of strategies tailored to local conditions gives the best results for national health surveys. In the NZ context, data from the NZ Census of Population and Dwellings and the Electoral Roll can be used to improve the sample design. A continuously operating survey provides both administrative and statistical advantages. PMID:24364838

Design of instructions for evacuating disabled adults.

PubMed

Boyce, Michael W; Al-Awar Smither, Janan; Fisher, Daniel O; Hancock, P A

2017-01-01

We investigated how the design of instructions can affect performance in preparing emergency stair travel devices for the evacuation of disable individuals. We had three hypotheses: 1) Design of instructions would account for a significant portion of explained performance variance, 2) Improvements in design of instructions would reduce time on task across device type and age group, and 3) There would be a performance decrement for older adults compared to younger adults based on the slowing of older adult information processing abilities. Results showed that design of instructions does indeed account for a large portion of explained variance in the operation of emergency stair travel devices, and that improvements in design of instructions can reduce time on task across device type and age group. However, encouragingly for real-world operations, results did not indicate any significant differences between older versus younger adults. We look to explore ways that individuals with disabilities can exploit these insights to enhance the performance of emergency stair travel devices for use. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Pricing of European Options Under the Constant Elasticity of Variance with Stochastic Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Bounghun; Choi, Sun-Yong; Kim, Jeong-Hoon

This paper considers a hybrid risky asset price model given by a constant elasticity of variance multiplied by a stochastic volatility factor. A multiscale analysis leads to an asymptotic pricing formula for both European vanilla option and a Barrier option near the zero elasticity of variance. The accuracy of the approximation is provided in a rigorous manner. A numerical experiment for implied volatilities shows that the hybrid model improves some of the well-known models in view of fitting the data for different maturities.

The effect of Fisher information matrix approximation methods in population optimal design calculations.

PubMed

Strömberg, Eric A; Nyberg, Joakim; Hooker, Andrew C

2016-12-01

With the increasing popularity of optimal design in drug development it is important to understand how the approximations and implementations of the Fisher information matrix (FIM) affect the resulting optimal designs. The aim of this work was to investigate the impact on design performance when using two common approximations to the population model and the full or block-diagonal FIM implementations for optimization of sampling points. Sampling schedules for two example experiments based on population models were optimized using the FO and FOCE approximations and the full and block-diagonal FIM implementations. The number of support points was compared between the designs for each example experiment. The performance of these designs based on simulation/estimations was investigated by computing bias of the parameters as well as through the use of an empirical D-criterion confidence interval. Simulations were performed when the design was computed with the true parameter values as well as with misspecified parameter values. The FOCE approximation and the Full FIM implementation yielded designs with more support points and less clustering of sample points than designs optimized with the FO approximation and the block-diagonal implementation. The D-criterion confidence intervals showed no performance differences between the full and block diagonal FIM optimal designs when assuming true parameter values. However, the FO approximated block-reduced FIM designs had higher bias than the other designs. When assuming parameter misspecification in the design evaluation, the FO Full FIM optimal design was superior to the FO block-diagonal FIM design in both of the examples.

Prediction of Cutting Force in Turning Process-an Experimental Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thangarasu, S. K.; Shankar, S.; Thomas, A. Tony; Sridhar, G.

2018-02-01

This Paper deals with a prediction of Cutting forces in a turning process. The turning process with advanced cutting tool has a several advantages over grinding such as short cycle time, process flexibility, compatible surface roughness, high material removal rate and less environment problems without the use of cutting fluid. In this a full bridge dynamometer has been used to measure the cutting forces over mild steel work piece and cemented carbide insert tool for different combination of cutting speed, feed rate and depth of cut. The experiments are planned based on taguchi design and measured cutting forces were compared with the predicted forces in order to validate the feasibility of the proposed design. The percentage contribution of each process parameter had been analyzed using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Both the experimental results taken from the lathe tool dynamometer and the designed full bridge dynamometer were analyzed using Taguchi design of experiment and Analysis of Variance.

Multistep estimators of the between-study variance: The relationship with the Paule-Mandel estimator.

PubMed

van Aert, Robbie C M; Jackson, Dan

2018-04-26

A wide variety of estimators of the between-study variance are available in random-effects meta-analysis. Many, but not all, of these estimators are based on the method of moments. The DerSimonian-Laird estimator is widely used in applications, but the Paule-Mandel estimator is an alternative that is now recommended. Recently, DerSimonian and Kacker have developed two-step moment-based estimators of the between-study variance. We extend these two-step estimators so that multiple (more than two) steps are used. We establish the surprising result that the multistep estimator tends towards the Paule-Mandel estimator as the number of steps becomes large. Hence, the iterative scheme underlying our new multistep estimator provides a hitherto unknown relationship between two-step estimators and Paule-Mandel estimator. Our analysis suggests that two-step estimators are not necessarily distinct estimators in their own right; instead, they are quantities that are closely related to the usual iterative scheme that is used to calculate the Paule-Mandel estimate. The relationship that we establish between the multistep and Paule-Mandel estimator is another justification for the use of the latter estimator. Two-step and multistep estimators are perhaps best conceptualized as approximate Paule-Mandel estimators. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Varying Readability of Science-Based Text in Elementary Readers: Challenges for Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher, Tiffany L.; Fazio, Xavier; Gunning, Thomas G.

2012-01-01

This investigation compared readability formulae to publishers' identified reading levels in science-based elementary readers. Nine well-established readability indices were calculated and comparisons were made with the publishers' identified grade designations and between different genres of text. Results revealed considerable variance among the…

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Calibration for an Ecosystem Carbon Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safta, C.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Sargsyan, K.; Najm, H. N.; Debusschere, B.; Thornton, P. E.

2013-12-01

We present uncertainty quantification results for a process-based ecosystem carbon model. The model employs 18 parameters and is driven by meteorological data corresponding to years 1992-2006 at the Harvard Forest site. Daily Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) observations were available to calibrate the model parameters and test the performance of the model. Posterior distributions show good predictive capabilities for the calibrated model. A global sensitivity analysis was first performed to determine the important model parameters based on their contribution to the variance of NEE. We then proceed to calibrate the model parameters in a Bayesian framework. The daily discrepancies between measured and predicted NEE values were modeled as independent and identically distributed Gaussians with prescribed daily variance according to the recorded instrument error. All model parameters were assumed to have uninformative priors with bounds set according to expert opinion. The global sensitivity results show that the rate of leaf fall (LEAFALL) is responsible for approximately 25% of the total variance in the average NEE for 1992-2005. A set of 4 other parameters, Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), base rate for maintenance respiration (BR_MR), growth respiration fraction (RG_FRAC), and allocation to plant stem pool (ASTEM) contribute between 5% and 12% to the variance in average NEE, while the rest of the parameters have smaller contributions. The posterior distributions, sampled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, exhibit significant correlations between model parameters. However LEAFALL, the most important parameter for the average NEE, is not informed by the observational data, while less important parameters show significant updates between their prior and posterior densities. The Fisher information matrix values, indicating which parameters are most informed by the experimental observations, are examined to augment the comparison between the calibration and global sensitivity analysis results.

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

SU-D-BRA-07: A Phantom Study to Assess the Variability in Radiomics Features Extracted From Cone-Beam CT Images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fave, X; Fried, D; UT Health Science Center Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, TX

2015-06-15

Purpose: Several studies have demonstrated the prognostic potential for texture features extracted from CT images of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. The purpose of this study was to determine if these features could be extracted with high reproducibility from cone-beam CT (CBCT) images in order for features to be easily tracked throughout a patient’s treatment. Methods: Two materials in a radiomics phantom, designed to approximate NSCLC tumor texture, were used to assess the reproducibility of 26 features. This phantom was imaged on 9 CBCT scanners, including Elekta and Varian machines. Thoracic and head imaging protocols were acquired on eachmore » machine. CBCT images from 27 NSCLC patients imaged using the thoracic protocol on Varian machines were obtained for comparison. The variance for each texture measured from these patients was compared to the variance in phantom values for different manufacturer/protocol subsets. Levene’s test was used to identify features which had a significantly smaller variance in the phantom scans versus the patient data. Results: Approximately half of the features (13/26 for material1 and 15/26 for material2) had a significantly smaller variance (p<0.05) between Varian thoracic scans of the phantom compared to patient scans. Many of these same features remained significant for the head scans on Varian (12/26 and 8/26). However, when thoracic scans from Elekta and Varian were combined, only a few features were still significant (4/26 and 5/26). Three features (skewness, coarsely filtered mean and standard deviation) were significant in almost all manufacturer/protocol subsets. Conclusion: Texture features extracted from CBCT images of a radiomics phantom are reproducible and show significantly less variation than the same features measured from patient images when images from the same manufacturer or with similar parameters are used. Reproducibility between CBCT scanners may be high enough to allow the extraction of meaningful texture values for patients. This project was funded in part by the Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT). Xenia Fave is a recipient of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine Graduate Fellowship.« less

Experimental evaluation of a new morphological approximation of the articular surfaces of the ankle joint.

PubMed

Belvedere, Claudio; Siegler, Sorin; Ensini, Andrea; Toy, Jason; Caravaggi, Paolo; Namani, Ramya; Giannini, Giulia; Durante, Stefano; Leardini, Alberto

2017-02-28

The mechanical characteristics of the ankle such as its kinematics and load transfer properties are influenced by the geometry of the articulating surfaces. A recent, image-based study found that these surfaces can be approximated by a saddle-shaped, skewed, truncated cone with its apex oriented laterally. The goal of this study was to establish a reliable experimental technique to study the relationship between the geometry of the articular surfaces of the ankle and its mobility and stability characteristics and to use this technique to determine if morphological approximations of the ankle surfaces based on recent discoveries, produce close to normal behavior. The study was performed on ten cadavers. For each specimen, a process based on medical imaging, modeling and 3D printing was used to produce two subject specific artificial implantable sets of the ankle surfaces. One set was a replica of the natural surfaces. The second approximated the ankle surfaces as an original saddle-shaped truncated cone with apex oriented laterally. Testing under cyclic loading conditions was then performed on each specimen following a previously established technique to determine its mobility and stability characteristics under three different conditions: natural surfaces; artificial surfaces replicating the natural surface morphology; and artificial approximation based on the saddle-shaped truncated cone concept. A repeated measure analysis of variance was then used to compare between the three conditions. The results show that (1): the artificial surfaces replicating natural morphology produce close to natural mobility and stability behavior thus establishing the reliability of the technique; and (2): the approximated surfaces based on saddle-shaped truncated cone concept produce mobility and stability behavior close to the ankle with natural surfaces. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A general dead-time correction method based on live-time stamping. Application to the measurement of short-lived radionuclides.

PubMed

Chauvenet, B; Bobin, C; Bouchard, J

2017-12-01

Dead-time correction formulae are established in the general case of superimposed non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Based on the same principles as conventional live-timed counting, this method exploits the additional information made available using digital signal processing systems, and especially the possibility to store the time stamps of live-time intervals. No approximation needs to be made to obtain those formulae. Estimates of the variances of corrected rates are also presented. This method is applied to the activity measurement of short-lived radionuclides. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of variation of apparent resistivity in resistivity surveys using finite difference modelling with Monte Carlo analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguirre, E. E.; Karchewski, B.

2017-12-01

DC resistivity surveying is a geophysical method that quantifies the electrical properties of the subsurface of the earth by applying a source current between two electrodes and measuring potential differences between electrodes at known distances from the source. Analytical solutions for a homogeneous half-space and simple subsurface models are well known, as the former is used to define the concept of apparent resistivity. However, in situ properties are heterogeneous meaning that simple analytical models are only an approximation, and ignoring such heterogeneity can lead to misinterpretation of survey results costing time and money. The present study examines the extent to which random variations in electrical properties (i.e. electrical conductivity) affect potential difference readings and therefore apparent resistivities, relative to an assumed homogeneous subsurface model. We simulate the DC resistivity survey using a Finite Difference (FD) approximation of an appropriate simplification of Maxwell's equations implemented in Matlab. Electrical resistivity values at each node in the simulation were defined as random variables with a given mean and variance, and are assumed to follow a log-normal distribution. The Monte Carlo analysis for a given variance of electrical resistivity was performed until the mean and variance in potential difference measured at the surface converged. Finally, we used the simulation results to examine the relationship between variance in resistivity and variation in surface potential difference (or apparent resistivity) relative to a homogeneous half-space model. For relatively low values of standard deviation in the material properties (<10% of mean), we observed a linear correlation between variance of resistivity and variance in apparent resistivity.

The 1% and 1 cm perspective in deriving and validating AOP data products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooker, S. B.; Morrow, J. H.; Matsuoka, A.

2012-07-01

A next-generation in-water profiler designed to measure the apparent optical properties (AOPs) of seawater was developed and validated across a wide dynamic range of in-water properties. The new free-falling instrument, the Compact-Optical Profiling System (C-OPS), was based on a cluster of 19 state-of-the-art microradiometers spanning 320-780 nm and a new kite-shaped backplane design. The kite-shaped backplane includes tunable ballast, a hydrobaric buoyancy chamber, plus pitch and roll adjustments, to provide unprecedented stability and vertical resolution in near-surface waters. A unique data set was collected as part of the development activity and the first major field campaign that used the new instrument, the Malina expedition to the Beaufort Sea in the vicinity of the Mackenzie River outflow. The data were of sufficient resolution and quality to show that errors - more correctly, uncertainties - in the execution of data sampling protocols were measurable at the 1% and 1 cm level with C-OPS. A sensitivity analysis as a function of three water types established by the peak in the remote sensing reflectance spectrum, Rrs(λ), revealed which water types and which parts of the spectrum were the most sensitive to data acquisition uncertainties. Shallow riverine waters were the most sensitive water type, and the ultraviolet and near-infrared were the most sensitive parts of the spectrum. The sensitivity analysis also showed how the use of data products based on band ratios significantly mitigated the influence of data acquisition uncertainties. The unprecedented vertical resolution provided high quality data products at the spectral end members, which subsequently supported an alternative classification capability based on the spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient, Kd(λ). The Kd(320) and Kd(780) data showed how complex coastal systems can be distinguished two-dimensionally and how near-ice water masses are different from the open ocean. Finally, an algorithm for predicting the spectral absorption due to colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), denoted aCDOM(λ), was developed using the Kd(320)/Kd(780) ratio, which was based on a linear relationship with respect to aCDOM(440), with over 99% of the variance explained. The robustness of the approach was established by expanding the use of the algorithm to include a geographically different coastal environment, the Southern Mid-Atlantic Bight, with no significant change in accuracy (approximately 98% of the variance explained). Alternative spectral end members reminiscent of next-generation (340 and 710 nm) as well as legacy satellite missions (412 and 670 nm) were also used to accurately derive aCDOM(440) from Kd(λ) ratios (94% or more of the variance explained).

Optimal Design of Multitype Groundwater Monitoring Networks Using Easily Accessible Tools.

PubMed

Wöhling, Thomas; Geiges, Andreas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2016-11-01

Monitoring networks are expensive to establish and to maintain. In this paper, we extend an existing data-worth estimation method from the suite of PEST utilities with a global optimization method for optimal sensor placement (called optimal design) in groundwater monitoring networks. Design optimization can include multiple simultaneous sensor locations and multiple sensor types. Both location and sensor type are treated simultaneously as decision variables. Our method combines linear uncertainty quantification and a modified genetic algorithm for discrete multilocation, multitype search. The efficiency of the global optimization is enhanced by an archive of past samples and parallel computing. We demonstrate our methodology for a groundwater monitoring network at the Steinlach experimental site, south-western Germany, which has been established to monitor river-groundwater exchange processes. The target of optimization is the best possible exploration for minimum variance in predicting the mean travel time of the hyporheic exchange. Our results demonstrate that the information gain of monitoring network designs can be explored efficiently and with easily accessible tools prior to taking new field measurements or installing additional measurement points. The proposed methods proved to be efficient and can be applied for model-based optimal design of any type of monitoring network in approximately linear systems. Our key contributions are (1) the use of easy-to-implement tools for an otherwise complex task and (2) yet to consider data-worth interdependencies in simultaneous optimization of multiple sensor locations and sensor types. © 2016, National Ground Water Association.

Internet Gaming Disorder Explains Unique Variance in Psychological Distress and Disability After Controlling for Comorbid Depression, OCD, ADHD, and Anxiety.

PubMed

Pearcy, Benjamin T D; McEvoy, Peter M; Roberts, Lynne D

2017-02-01

This study extends knowledge about the relationship of Internet Gaming Disorder (IGD) to other established mental disorders by exploring comorbidities with anxiety, depression, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), and obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), and assessing whether IGD accounts for unique variance in distress and disability. An online survey was completed by a convenience sample that engages in Internet gaming (N = 404). Participants meeting criteria for IGD based on the Personal Internet Gaming Disorder Evaluation-9 (PIE-9) reported higher comorbidity with depression, OCD, ADHD, and anxiety compared with those who did not meet the IGD criteria. IGD explained a small proportion of unique variance in distress (1%) and disability (3%). IGD accounted for a larger proportion of unique variance in disability than anxiety and ADHD, and a similar proportion to depression. Replications with clinical samples using longitudinal designs and structured diagnostic interviews are required.

Intra-class correlation estimates for assessment of vitamin A intake in children.

PubMed

Agarwal, Girdhar G; Awasthi, Shally; Walter, Stephen D

2005-03-01

In many community-based surveys, multi-level sampling is inherent in the design. In the design of these studies, especially to calculate the appropriate sample size, investigators need good estimates of intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), along with the cluster size, to adjust for variation inflation due to clustering at each level. The present study used data on the assessment of clinical vitamin A deficiency and intake of vitamin A-rich food in children in a district in India. For the survey, 16 households were sampled from 200 villages nested within eight randomly-selected blocks of the district. ICCs and components of variances were estimated from a three-level hierarchical random effects analysis of variance model. Estimates of ICCs and variance components were obtained at village and block levels. Between-cluster variation was evident at each level of clustering. In these estimates, ICCs were inversely related to cluster size, but the design effect could be substantial for large clusters. At the block level, most ICC estimates were below 0.07. At the village level, many ICC estimates ranged from 0.014 to 0.45. These estimates may provide useful information for the design of epidemiological studies in which the sampled (or allocated) units range in size from households to large administrative zones.

Developing Parametric Models for the Assembly of Machine Fixtures for Virtual Multiaxial CNC Machining Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaykin, A. V.; Bezsonov, K. A.; Nekhoroshev, M. V.; Shulepov, A. P.

2018-01-01

This paper dwells upon a variance parameterization method. Variance or dimensional parameterization is based on sketching, with various parametric links superimposed on the sketch objects and user-imposed constraints in the form of an equation system that determines the parametric dependencies. This method is fully integrated in a top-down design methodology to enable the creation of multi-variant and flexible fixture assembly models, as all the modeling operations are hierarchically linked in the built tree. In this research the authors consider a parameterization method of machine tooling used for manufacturing parts using multiaxial CNC machining centers in the real manufacturing process. The developed method allows to significantly reduce tooling design time when making changes of a part’s geometric parameters. The method can also reduce time for designing and engineering preproduction, in particular, for development of control programs for CNC equipment and control and measuring machines, automate the release of design and engineering documentation. Variance parameterization helps to optimize construction of parts as well as machine tooling using integrated CAE systems. In the framework of this study, the authors demonstrate a comprehensive approach to parametric modeling of machine tooling in the CAD package used in the real manufacturing process of aircraft engines.

An apparent contradiction: increasing variability to achieve greater precision?

PubMed

Rosenblatt, Noah J; Hurt, Christopher P; Latash, Mark L; Grabiner, Mark D

2014-02-01

To understand the relationship between variability of foot placement in the frontal plane and stability of gait patterns, we explored how constraining mediolateral foot placement during walking affects the structure of kinematic variance in the lower-limb configuration space during the swing phase of gait. Ten young subjects walked under three conditions: (1) unconstrained (normal walking), (2) constrained (walking overground with visual guides for foot placement to achieve the measured unconstrained step width) and, (3) beam (walking on elevated beams spaced to achieve the measured unconstrained step width). The uncontrolled manifold analysis of the joint configuration variance was used to quantify two variance components, one that did not affect the mediolateral trajectory of the foot in the frontal plane ("good variance") and one that affected this trajectory ("bad variance"). Based on recent studies, we hypothesized that across conditions (1) the index of the synergy stabilizing the mediolateral trajectory of the foot (the normalized difference between the "good variance" and "bad variance") would systematically increase and (2) the changes in the synergy index would be associated with a disproportionate increase in the "good variance." Both hypotheses were confirmed. We conclude that an increase in the "good variance" component of the joint configuration variance may be an effective method of ensuring high stability of gait patterns during conditions requiring increased control of foot placement, particularly if a postural threat is present. Ultimately, designing interventions that encourage a larger amount of "good variance" may be a promising method of improving stability of gait patterns in populations such as older adults and neurological patients.

Goal-oriented sensitivity analysis for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arampatzis, Georgios, E-mail: garab@math.uoc.gr; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003; Katsoulakis, Markos A., E-mail: markos@math.umass.edu

2014-03-28

In this paper we propose a new class of coupling methods for the sensitivity analysis of high dimensional stochastic systems and in particular for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC). Sensitivity analysis for stochastic systems is typically based on approximating continuous derivatives with respect to model parameters by the mean value of samples from a finite difference scheme. Instead of using independent samples the proposed algorithm reduces the variance of the estimator by developing a strongly correlated-“coupled”- stochastic process for both the perturbed and unperturbed stochastic processes, defined in a common state space. The novelty of our construction is that themore » new coupled process depends on the targeted observables, e.g., coverage, Hamiltonian, spatial correlations, surface roughness, etc., hence we refer to the proposed method as goal-oriented sensitivity analysis. In particular, the rates of the coupled Continuous Time Markov Chain are obtained as solutions to a goal-oriented optimization problem, depending on the observable of interest, by considering the minimization functional of the corresponding variance. We show that this functional can be used as a diagnostic tool for the design and evaluation of different classes of couplings. Furthermore, the resulting KMC sensitivity algorithm has an easy implementation that is based on the Bortz–Kalos–Lebowitz algorithm's philosophy, where events are divided in classes depending on level sets of the observable of interest. Finally, we demonstrate in several examples including adsorption, desorption, and diffusion Kinetic Monte Carlo that for the same confidence interval and observable, the proposed goal-oriented algorithm can be two orders of magnitude faster than existing coupling algorithms for spatial KMC such as the Common Random Number approach. We also provide a complete implementation of the proposed sensitivity analysis algorithms, including various spatial KMC examples, in a supplementary MATLAB source code.« less

Sparse Polynomial Chaos Surrogate for ACME Land Model via Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargsyan, K.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Safta, C.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H. N.; Thornton, P. E.

2015-12-01

For computationally expensive climate models, Monte-Carlo approaches of exploring the input parameter space are often prohibitive due to slow convergence with respect to ensemble size. To alleviate this, we build inexpensive surrogates using uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods employing Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions that approximate the input-output relationships using as few model evaluations as possible. However, when many uncertain input parameters are present, such UQ studies suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In particular, for 50-100 input parameters non-adaptive PC representations have infeasible numbers of basis terms. To this end, we develop and employ Weighted Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing to learn the most important input parameter relationships for efficient, sparse PC surrogate construction with posterior uncertainty quantified due to insufficient data. Besides drastic dimensionality reduction, the uncertain surrogate can efficiently replace the model in computationally intensive studies such as forward uncertainty propagation and variance-based sensitivity analysis, as well as design optimization and parameter estimation using observational data. We applied the surrogate construction and variance-based uncertainty decomposition to Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) Land Model for several output QoIs at nearly 100 FLUXNET sites covering multiple plant functional types and climates, varying 65 input parameters over broad ranges of possible values. This work is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

An approximate spin design criterion for monoplanes, 1 May 1939

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seidman, O.; Donlan, C. J.

1976-01-01

An approximate empirical criterion, based on the projected side area and the mass distribution of the airplane, was formulated. The British results were analyzed and applied to American designs. A simpler design criterion, based solely on the type and the dimensions of the tail, was developed; it is useful in a rapid estimation of whether a new design is likely to comply with the minimum requirements for safety in spinning.

Tests of Mediation: Paradoxical Decline in Statistical Power as a Function of Mediator Collinearity

PubMed Central

Beasley, T. Mark

2013-01-01

Increasing the correlation between the independent variable and the mediator (a coefficient) increases the effect size (ab) for mediation analysis; however, increasing a by definition increases collinearity in mediation models. As a result, the standard error of product tests increase. The variance inflation due to increases in a at some point outweighs the increase of the effect size (ab) and results in a loss of statistical power. This phenomenon also occurs with nonparametric bootstrapping approaches because the variance of the bootstrap distribution of ab approximates the variance expected from normal theory. Both variances increase dramatically when a exceeds the b coefficient, thus explaining the power decline with increases in a. Implications for statistical analysis and applied researchers are discussed. PMID:24954952

Enhanced Performance Controller Design for Stochastic Systems by Adding Extra State Estimation onto the Existing Closed Loop Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Yuyang; Zhang, Qichun; Wang, Hong

To enhance the performance of the tracking property , this paper presents a novel control algorithm for a class of linear dynamic stochastic systems with unmeasurable states, where the performance enhancement loop is established based on Kalman filter. Without changing the existing closed loop with the PI controller, the compensative controller is designed to minimize the variances of the tracking errors using the estimated states and the propagation of state variances. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems has been analyzed in the mean-square sense. A simulated example is included to show the effectiveness of the presented control algorithm, wheremore » encouraging results have been obtained.« less

Systems, Subjects, Sessions: To What Extent Do These Factors Influence EEG Data?

PubMed

Melnik, Andrew; Legkov, Petr; Izdebski, Krzysztof; Kärcher, Silke M; Hairston, W David; Ferris, Daniel P; König, Peter

2017-01-01

Lab-based electroencephalography (EEG) techniques have matured over decades of research and can produce high-quality scientific data. It is often assumed that the specific choice of EEG system has limited impact on the data and does not add variance to the results. However, many low cost and mobile EEG systems are now available, and there is some doubt as to the how EEG data vary across these newer systems. We sought to determine how variance across systems compares to variance across subjects or repeated sessions. We tested four EEG systems: two standard research-grade systems, one system designed for mobile use with dry electrodes, and an affordable mobile system with a lower channel count. We recorded four subjects three times with each of the four EEG systems. This setup allowed us to assess the influence of all three factors on the variance of data. Subjects performed a battery of six short standard EEG paradigms based on event-related potentials (ERPs) and steady-state visually evoked potential (SSVEP). Results demonstrated that subjects account for 32% of the variance, systems for 9% of the variance, and repeated sessions for each subject-system combination for 1% of the variance. In most lab-based EEG research, the number of subjects per study typically ranges from 10 to 20, and error of uncertainty in estimates of the mean (like ERP) will improve by the square root of the number of subjects. As a result, the variance due to EEG system (9%) is of the same order of magnitude as variance due to subjects (32%/sqrt(16) = 8%) with a pool of 16 subjects. The two standard research-grade EEG systems had no significantly different means from each other across all paradigms. However, the two other EEG systems demonstrated different mean values from one or both of the two standard research-grade EEG systems in at least half of the paradigms. In addition to providing specific estimates of the variability across EEG systems, subjects, and repeated sessions, we also propose a benchmark to evaluate new mobile EEG systems by means of ERP responses.

Systems, Subjects, Sessions: To What Extent Do These Factors Influence EEG Data?

PubMed Central

Melnik, Andrew; Legkov, Petr; Izdebski, Krzysztof; Kärcher, Silke M.; Hairston, W. David; Ferris, Daniel P.; König, Peter

2017-01-01

Lab-based electroencephalography (EEG) techniques have matured over decades of research and can produce high-quality scientific data. It is often assumed that the specific choice of EEG system has limited impact on the data and does not add variance to the results. However, many low cost and mobile EEG systems are now available, and there is some doubt as to the how EEG data vary across these newer systems. We sought to determine how variance across systems compares to variance across subjects or repeated sessions. We tested four EEG systems: two standard research-grade systems, one system designed for mobile use with dry electrodes, and an affordable mobile system with a lower channel count. We recorded four subjects three times with each of the four EEG systems. This setup allowed us to assess the influence of all three factors on the variance of data. Subjects performed a battery of six short standard EEG paradigms based on event-related potentials (ERPs) and steady-state visually evoked potential (SSVEP). Results demonstrated that subjects account for 32% of the variance, systems for 9% of the variance, and repeated sessions for each subject-system combination for 1% of the variance. In most lab-based EEG research, the number of subjects per study typically ranges from 10 to 20, and error of uncertainty in estimates of the mean (like ERP) will improve by the square root of the number of subjects. As a result, the variance due to EEG system (9%) is of the same order of magnitude as variance due to subjects (32%/sqrt(16) = 8%) with a pool of 16 subjects. The two standard research-grade EEG systems had no significantly different means from each other across all paradigms. However, the two other EEG systems demonstrated different mean values from one or both of the two standard research-grade EEG systems in at least half of the paradigms. In addition to providing specific estimates of the variability across EEG systems, subjects, and repeated sessions, we also propose a benchmark to evaluate new mobile EEG systems by means of ERP responses. PMID:28424600

Reliability-based design optimization using a generalized subset simulation method and posterior approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yuan-Zhuo; Li, Hong-Shuang; Yao, Wei-Xing

2018-05-01

The evaluation of the probabilistic constraints in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems has always been significant and challenging work, which strongly affects the performance of RBDO methods. This article deals with RBDO problems using a recently developed generalized subset simulation (GSS) method and a posterior approximation approach. The posterior approximation approach is used to transform all the probabilistic constraints into ordinary constraints as in deterministic optimization. The assessment of multiple failure probabilities required by the posterior approximation approach is achieved by GSS in a single run at all supporting points, which are selected by a proper experimental design scheme combining Sobol' sequences and Bucher's design. Sequentially, the transformed deterministic design optimization problem can be solved by optimization algorithms, for example, the sequential quadratic programming method. Three optimization problems are used to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Bayesian alternative to the ISO-GUM's use of the Welch Satterthwaite formula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kacker, Raghu N.

2006-02-01

In certain disciplines, uncertainty is traditionally expressed as an interval about an estimate for the value of the measurand. Development of such uncertainty intervals with a stated coverage probability based on the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) requires a description of the probability distribution for the value of the measurand. The ISO-GUM propagates the estimates and their associated standard uncertainties for various input quantities through a linear approximation of the measurement equation to determine an estimate and its associated standard uncertainty for the value of the measurand. This procedure does not yield a probability distribution for the value of the measurand. The ISO-GUM suggests that under certain conditions motivated by the central limit theorem the distribution for the value of the measurand may be approximated by a scaled-and-shifted t-distribution with effective degrees of freedom obtained from the Welch-Satterthwaite (W-S) formula. The approximate t-distribution may then be used to develop an uncertainty interval with a stated coverage probability for the value of the measurand. We propose an approximate normal distribution based on a Bayesian uncertainty as an alternative to the t-distribution based on the W-S formula. A benefit of the approximate normal distribution based on a Bayesian uncertainty is that it greatly simplifies the expression of uncertainty by eliminating altogether the need for calculating effective degrees of freedom from the W-S formula. In the special case where the measurand is the difference between two means, each evaluated from statistical analyses of independent normally distributed measurements with unknown and possibly unequal variances, the probability distribution for the value of the measurand is known to be a Behrens-Fisher distribution. We compare the performance of the approximate normal distribution based on a Bayesian uncertainty and the approximate t-distribution based on the W-S formula with respect to the Behrens-Fisher distribution. The approximate normal distribution is simpler and better in this case. A thorough investigation of the relative performance of the two approximate distributions would require comparison for a range of measurement equations by numerical methods.

Software for the grouped optimal aggregation technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, P. M.; Shaw, G. W. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The grouped optimal aggregation technique produces minimum variance, unbiased estimates of acreage and production for countries, zones (states), or any designated collection of acreage strata. It uses yield predictions, historical acreage information, and direct acreage estimate from satellite data. The acreage strata are grouped in such a way that the ratio model over historical acreage provides a smaller variance than if the model were applied to each individual stratum. An optimal weighting matrix based on historical acreages, provides the link between incomplete direct acreage estimates and the total, current acreage estimate.

Designing a compact high performance brain PET scanner—simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Kuang; Majewski, Stan; Kinahan, Paul E.; Harrison, Robert L.; Elston, Brian F.; Manjeshwar, Ravindra; Dolinsky, Sergei; Stolin, Alexander V.; Brefczynski-Lewis, Julie A.; Qi, Jinyi

2016-05-01

The desire to understand normal and disordered human brain function of upright, moving persons in natural environments motivates the development of the ambulatory micro-dose brain PET imager (AMPET). An ideal system would be light weight but with high sensitivity and spatial resolution, although these requirements are often in conflict with each other. One potential approach to meet the design goals is a compact brain-only imaging device with a head-sized aperture. However, a compact geometry increases parallax error in peripheral lines of response, which increases bias and variance in region of interest (ROI) quantification. Therefore, we performed simulation studies to search for the optimal system configuration and to evaluate the potential improvement in quantification performance over existing scanners. We used the Cramér-Rao variance bound to compare the performance for ROI quantification using different scanner geometries. The results show that while a smaller ring diameter can increase photon detection sensitivity and hence reduce the variance at the center of the field of view, it can also result in higher variance in peripheral regions when the length of detector crystal is 15 mm or more. This variance can be substantially reduced by adding depth-of-interaction (DOI) measurement capability to the detector modules. Our simulation study also shows that the relative performance depends on the size of the ROI, and a large ROI favors a compact geometry even without DOI information. Based on these results, we propose a compact ‘helmet’ design using detectors with DOI capability. Monte Carlo simulations show the helmet design can achieve four-fold higher sensitivity and resolve smaller features than existing cylindrical brain PET scanners. The simulations also suggest that improving TOF timing resolution from 400 ps to 200 ps also results in noticeable improvement in image quality, indicating better timing resolution is desirable for brain imaging.

Designing a compact high performance brain PET scanner—simulation study

PubMed Central

Gong, Kuang; Majewski, Stan; Kinahan, Paul E; Harrison, Robert L; Elston, Brian F; Manjeshwar, Ravindra; Dolinsky, Sergei; Stolin, Alexander V; Brefczynski-Lewis, Julie A; Qi, Jinyi

2016-01-01

The desire to understand normal and disordered human brain function of upright, moving persons in natural environments motivates the development of the ambulatory micro-dose brain PET imager (AMPET). An ideal system would be light weight but with high sensitivity and spatial resolution, although these requirements are often in conflict with each other. One potential approach to meet the design goals is a compact brain-only imaging device with a head-sized aperture. However, a compact geometry increases parallax error in peripheral lines of response, which increases bias and variance in region of interest (ROI) quantification. Therefore, we performed simulation studies to search for the optimal system configuration and to evaluate the potential improvement in quantification performance over existing scanners. We used the Cramér–Rao variance bound to compare the performance for ROI quantification using different scanner geometries. The results show that while a smaller ring diameter can increase photon detection sensitivity and hence reduce the variance at the center of the field of view, it can also result in higher variance in peripheral regions when the length of detector crystal is 15 mm or more. This variance can be substantially reduced by adding depth-of- interaction (DOI) measurement capability to the detector modules. Our simulation study also shows that the relative performance depends on the size of the ROI, and a large ROI favors a compact geometry even without DOI information. Based on these results, we propose a compact ‘helmet’ design using detectors with DOI capability. Monte Carlo simulations show the helmet design can achieve four-fold higher sensitivity and resolve smaller features than existing cylindrical brain PET scanners. The simulations also suggest that improving TOF timing resolution from 400 ps to 200 ps also results in noticeable improvement in image quality, indicating better timing resolution is desirable for brain imaging. PMID:27081753

A brief motivational interview with action and coping planning components enhances motivational autonomy among volunteer blood donors.

PubMed

France, Christopher R; France, Janis L; Carlson, Bruce W; Kessler, Debra A; Rebosa, Mark; Shaz, Beth H; Madden, Katrala; Carey, Patricia M; Fox, Kristen R; Livitz, Irina E; Ankawi, Brett; Slepian, P Maxwell

2016-06-01

In contrast to standard donor retention strategies (e.g., mailings, phone calls, text messages), we developed a brief telephone interview, based on motivational interviewing principles, that encourages blood donors to reflect upon their unique motivators and barriers for giving. This study examined the effect of this motivational interview, combined with action and coping plan components, on blood donor motivations. The design was to randomly assign blood donors to receive either a telephone-delivered motivational interview with action and coping plan components or a control call approximately 6 weeks after their most recent donation. Participants completed a series of surveys related to donation motivation approximately 3 weeks before telephone contact (precall baseline) and then repeated these surveys approximately 1 week after telephone contact (postcall). The sample was 63% female, included a majority (52.6%) of first-time blood donors, and had a mean age of 30.0 years (SD, 11.7 years). A series of analyses of variance revealed that, relative to controls (n = 244), donors in the motivational interview group (n = 254) had significantly larger increases in motivational autonomy (p = 0.001), affective attitude (p = 0.004), self-efficacy (p = 0.03), anticipated regret (p = 0.001), and intention (p = < 0.001), as well as larger decreases in donation anxiety (p = 0.01), from precall baseline to postcall assessment. This study supports motivational interviewing with action and coping planning as a novel strategy to promote key contributors to donor motivation. © 2016 AABB.

Fixation of slightly beneficial mutations: effects of life history.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2010-04-01

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage-structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.

Wake-sleep transition as a noisy bifurcation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Dong-Ping; McKenzie-Sell, Lauren; Karanjai, Angela; Robinson, P. A.

2016-08-01

A recent physiologically based model of the ascending arousal system is used to analyze the dynamics near the transition from wake to sleep, which corresponds to a saddle-node bifurcation at a critical point. A normal form is derived by approximating the dynamics by those of a particle in a parabolic potential well with dissipation. This mechanical analog is used to calculate the power spectrum of fluctuations in response to a white noise drive, and the scalings of fluctuation variance and spectral width are derived versus distance from the critical point. The predicted scalings are quantitatively confirmed by numerical simulations, which show that the variance increases and the spectrum undergoes critical slowing, both in accord with theory. These signals can thus serve as potential precursors to indicate imminent wake-sleep transition, with potential application to safety-critical occupations in transport, air-traffic control, medicine, and heavy industry.

Analysis of Wind Tunnel Polar Replicates Using the Modern Design of Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, Richard; Micol, John R.

2010-01-01

The role of variance in a Modern Design of Experiments analysis of wind tunnel data is reviewed, with distinctions made between explained and unexplained variance. The partitioning of unexplained variance into systematic and random components is illustrated, with examples of the elusive systematic component provided for various types of real-world tests. The importance of detecting and defending against systematic unexplained variance in wind tunnel testing is discussed, and the random and systematic components of unexplained variance are examined for a representative wind tunnel data set acquired in a test in which a missile is used as a test article. The adverse impact of correlated (non-independent) experimental errors is described, and recommendations are offered for replication strategies that facilitate the quantification of random and systematic unexplained variance.

Multivariate methods for evaluating the efficiency of electrodialytic removal of heavy metals from polluted harbour sediments.

PubMed

Pedersen, Kristine Bondo; Kirkelund, Gunvor M; Ottosen, Lisbeth M; Jensen, Pernille E; Lejon, Tore

2015-01-01

Chemometrics was used to develop a multivariate model based on 46 previously reported electrodialytic remediation experiments (EDR) of five different harbour sediments. The model predicted final concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn as a function of current density, remediation time, stirring rate, dry/wet sediment, cell set-up as well as sediment properties. Evaluation of the model showed that remediation time and current density had the highest comparative influence on the clean-up levels. Individual models for each heavy metal showed variance in the variable importance, indicating that the targeted heavy metals were bound to different sediment fractions. Based on the results, a PLS model was used to design five new EDR experiments of a sixth sediment to achieve specified clean-up levels of Cu and Pb. The removal efficiencies were up to 82% for Cu and 87% for Pb and the targeted clean-up levels were met in four out of five experiments. The clean-up levels were better than predicted by the model, which could hence be used for predicting an approximate remediation strategy; the modelling power will however improve with more data included. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lateral Penumbra Modelling Based Leaf End Shape Optimization for Multileaf Collimator in Radiotherapy.

PubMed

Zhou, Dong; Zhang, Hui; Ye, Peiqing

2016-01-01

Lateral penumbra of multileaf collimator plays an important role in radiotherapy treatment planning. Growing evidence has revealed that, for a single-focused multileaf collimator, lateral penumbra width is leaf position dependent and largely attributed to the leaf end shape. In our study, an analytical method for leaf end induced lateral penumbra modelling is formulated using Tangent Secant Theory. Compared with Monte Carlo simulation and ray tracing algorithm, our model serves well the purpose of cost-efficient penumbra evaluation. Leaf ends represented in parametric forms of circular arc, elliptical arc, Bézier curve, and B-spline are implemented. With biobjective function of penumbra mean and variance introduced, genetic algorithm is carried out for approximating the Pareto frontier. Results show that for circular arc leaf end objective function is convex and convergence to optimal solution is guaranteed using gradient based iterative method. It is found that optimal leaf end in the shape of Bézier curve achieves minimal standard deviation, while using B-spline minimum of penumbra mean is obtained. For treatment modalities in clinical application, optimized leaf ends are in close agreement with actual shapes. Taken together, the method that we propose can provide insight into leaf end shape design of multileaf collimator.

Genetic evolution, plasticity, and bet-hedging as adaptive responses to temporally autocorrelated fluctuating selection: A quantitative genetic model.

PubMed

Tufto, Jarle

2015-08-01

Adaptive responses to autocorrelated environmental fluctuations through evolution in mean reaction norm elevation and slope and an independent component of the phenotypic variance are analyzed using a quantitative genetic model. Analytic approximations expressing the mutual dependencies between all three response modes are derived and solved for the joint evolutionary outcome. Both genetic evolution in reaction norm elevation and plasticity are favored by slow temporal fluctuations, with plasticity, in the absence of microenvironmental variability, being the dominant evolutionary outcome for reasonable parameter values. For fast fluctuations, tracking of the optimal phenotype through genetic evolution and plasticity is limited. If residual fluctuations in the optimal phenotype are large and stabilizing selection is strong, selection then acts to increase the phenotypic variance (bet-hedging adaptive). Otherwise, canalizing selection occurs. If the phenotypic variance increases with plasticity through the effect of microenvironmental variability, this shifts the joint evolutionary balance away from plasticity in favor of genetic evolution. If microenvironmental deviations experienced by each individual at the time of development and selection are correlated, however, more plasticity evolves. The adaptive significance of evolutionary fluctuations in plasticity and the phenotypic variance, transient evolution, and the validity of the analytic approximations are investigated using simulations. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Estimation and Simulation of Slow Crack Growth Parameters from Constant Stress Rate Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Weaver, Aaron S.

2003-01-01

Closed form, approximate functions for estimating the variances and degrees-of-freedom associated with the slow crack growth parameters n, D, B, and A(sup *) as measured using constant stress rate ('dynamic fatigue') testing were derived by using propagation of errors. Estimates made with the resulting functions and slow crack growth data for a sapphire window were compared to the results of Monte Carlo simulations. The functions for estimation of the variances of the parameters were derived both with and without logarithmic transformation of the initial slow crack growth equations. The transformation was performed to make the functions both more linear and more normal. Comparison of the Monte Carlo results and the closed form expressions derived with propagation of errors indicated that linearization is not required for good estimates of the variances of parameters n and D by the propagation of errors method. However, good estimates variances of the parameters B and A(sup *) could only be made when the starting slow crack growth equation was transformed and the coefficients of variation of the input parameters were not too large. This was partially a result of the skewered distributions of B and A(sup *). Parametric variation of the input parameters was used to determine an acceptable range for using closed form approximate equations derived from propagation of errors.

Diagnosis of the Ill-condition of the RFM Based on Condition Index and Variance Decomposition Proportion (CIVDP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qing, Zhou; Weili, Jiao; Tengfei, Long

2014-03-01

The Rational Function Model (RFM) is a new generalized sensor model. It does not need the physical parameters of sensors to achieve a high accuracy that is compatible to the rigorous sensor models. At present, the main method to solve RPCs is the Least Squares Estimation. But when coefficients has a large number or the distribution of the control points is not even, the classical least square method loses its superiority due to the ill-conditioning problem of design matrix. Condition Index and Variance Decomposition Proportion (CIVDP) is a reliable method for diagnosing the multicollinearity among the design matrix. It can not only detect the multicollinearity, but also can locate the parameters and show the corresponding columns in the design matrix. In this paper, the CIVDP method is used to diagnose the ill-condition problem of the RFM and to find the multicollinearity in the normal matrix.

On predicting monitoring system effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappello, Carlo; Sigurdardottir, Dorotea; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele; Pozzi, Matteo

2015-03-01

While the objective of structural design is to achieve stability with an appropriate level of reliability, the design of systems for structural health monitoring is performed to identify a configuration that enables acquisition of data with an appropriate level of accuracy in order to understand the performance of a structure or its condition state. However, a rational standardized approach for monitoring system design is not fully available. Hence, when engineers design a monitoring system, their approach is often heuristic with performance evaluation based on experience, rather than on quantitative analysis. In this contribution, we propose a probabilistic model for the estimation of monitoring system effectiveness based on information available in prior condition, i.e. before acquiring empirical data. The presented model is developed considering the analogy between structural design and monitoring system design. We assume that the effectiveness can be evaluated based on the prediction of the posterior variance or covariance matrix of the state parameters, which we assume to be defined in a continuous space. Since the empirical measurements are not available in prior condition, the estimation of the posterior variance or covariance matrix is performed considering the measurements as a stochastic variable. Moreover, the model takes into account the effects of nuisance parameters, which are stochastic parameters that affect the observations but cannot be estimated using monitoring data. Finally, we present an application of the proposed model to a real structure. The results show how the model enables engineers to predict whether a sensor configuration satisfies the required performance.

Measures of functional limitation as predictors of disablement in athletes with acute ankle sprains.

PubMed

Wilson, R W; Gansneder, B M

2000-09-01

Prospective multivariate design. To determine the usefulness of activity scores, self-reported athletic ability, and selected measures of physical impairment as predictors of disability duration in athletes with ankle inversion sprains. Although several measures of physical impairment and functional limitation are used to assess the consequences of injury following ankle sprain, researchers have yet to establish which measures provide the most accurate predictions of disability duration. Physical impairment, activity limitation, and disability duration were measured in 21 athletes (13 men and 8 women; mean age = 20.3 +/- 1.7 years) with acute ankle sprains. Sagittal plane ankle range of motion and volumetric displacement were used as impairment indicators. Weight-bearing activity scores (task completion count) and self-reported athletic ability (visual analog scale) were used to represent functional limitation. Elapsed time from injury to return to full athletic participation was used as the criterion measure of disability duration. The impairment measures accounted for approximately one-third of the variance in disability duration (R2 = 0.342). Adding the activity limitation measures to the regression model improved predictions of disability duration (R2 = 0.670; stepwise R2 change = 0.328). The measures of activity limitation alone, however, accounted for approximately 67% (R2 = 0.665) of the total variance in the number of days lost due to injury. Measures of activity limitation were the strongest predictors of elapsed time from injury to return to full athletic participation.

Transformation Model Choice in Nonlinear Regression Analysis of Fluorescence-based Serial Dilution Assays

PubMed Central

Fong, Youyi; Yu, Xuesong

2016-01-01

Many modern serial dilution assays are based on fluorescence intensity (FI) readouts. We study optimal transformation model choice for fitting five parameter logistic curves (5PL) to FI-based serial dilution assay data. We first develop a generalized least squares-pseudolikelihood type algorithm for fitting heteroscedastic logistic models. Next we show that the 5PL and log 5PL functions can approximate each other well. We then compare four 5PL models with different choices of log transformation and variance modeling through a Monte Carlo study and real data. Our findings are that the optimal choice depends on the intended use of the fitted curves. PMID:27642502

Differential expression profiling of serum proteins and metabolites for biomarker discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Sushmita Mimi; Anderle, Markus; Lin, Hua; Becker, Christopher H.

2004-11-01

A liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) proteomics and metabolomics platform is presented for quantitative differential expression analysis. Proteome profiles obtained from 1.5 [mu]L of human serum show ~5000 de-isotoped and quantifiable molecular ions. Approximately 1500 metabolites are observed from 100 [mu]L of serum. Quantification is based on reproducible sample preparation and linear signal intensity as a function of concentration. The platform is validated using human serum, but is generally applicable to all biological fluids and tissues. The median coefficient of variation (CV) for ~5000 proteomic and ~1500 metabolomic molecular ions is approximately 25%. For the case of C-reactive protein, results agree with quantification by immunoassay. The independent contributions of two sources of variance, namely sample preparation and LC-MS analysis, are respectively quantified as 20.4 and 15.1% for the proteome, and 19.5 and 13.5% for the metabolome, for median CV values. Furthermore, biological diversity for ~20 healthy individuals is estimated by measuring the variance of ~6500 proteomic and metabolomic molecular ions in sera for each sample; the median CV is 22.3% for the proteome and 16.7% for the metabolome. Finally, quantitative differential expression profiling is applied to a clinical study comparing healthy individuals and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients.

The effect of toe marker placement error on joint kinematics and muscle forces using OpenSim gait simulation.

PubMed

Xu, Hang; Merryweather, Andrew; Bloswick, Donald; Mao, Qi; Wang, Tong

2015-01-01

Marker placement can be a significant source of error in biomechanical studies of human movement. The toe marker placement error is amplified by footwear since the toe marker placement on the shoe only relies on an approximation of underlying anatomical landmarks. Three total knee replacement subjects were recruited and three self-speed gait trials per subject were collected. The height variation between toe and heel markers of four types of footwear was evaluated from the results of joint kinematics and muscle forces using OpenSim. The reference condition was considered as the same vertical height of toe and heel markers. The results showed that the residual variances for joint kinematics had an approximately linear relationship with toe marker placement error for lower limb joints. Ankle dorsiflexion/plantarflexion is most sensitive to toe marker placement error. The influence of toe marker placement error is generally larger for hip flexion/extension and rotation than hip abduction/adduction and knee flexion/extension. The muscle forces responded to the residual variance of joint kinematics to various degrees based on the muscle function for specific joint kinematics. This study demonstrates the importance of evaluating marker error for joint kinematics and muscle forces when explaining relative clinical gait analysis and treatment intervention.

Inter-individual Differences in the Effects of Aircraft Noise on Sleep Fragmentation.

PubMed

McGuire, Sarah; Müller, Uwe; Elmenhorst, Eva-Maria; Basner, Mathias

2016-05-01

Environmental noise exposure disturbs sleep and impairs recuperation, and may contribute to the increased risk for (cardiovascular) disease. Noise policy and regulation are usually based on average responses despite potentially large inter-individual differences in the effects of traffic noise on sleep. In this analysis, we investigated what percentage of the total variance in noise-induced awakening reactions can be explained by stable inter-individual differences. We investigated 69 healthy subjects polysomnographically (mean ± standard deviation 40 ± 13 years, range 18-68 years, 32 male) in this randomized, balanced, double-blind, repeated measures laboratory study. This study included one adaptation night, 9 nights with exposure to 40, 80, or 120 road, rail, and/or air traffic noise events (including one noise-free control night), and one recovery night. Mixed-effects models of variance controlling for reaction probability in noise-free control nights, age, sex, number of noise events, and study night showed that 40.5% of the total variance in awakening probability and 52.0% of the total variance in EEG arousal probability were explained by inter-individual differences. If the data set was restricted to nights (4 exposure nights with 80 noise events per night), 46.7% of the total variance in awakening probability and 57.9% of the total variance in EEG arousal probability were explained by inter-individual differences. The results thus demonstrate that, even in this relatively homogeneous, healthy, adult study population, a considerable amount of the variance observed in noise-induced sleep disturbance can be explained by inter-individual differences that cannot be explained by age, gender, or specific study design aspects. It will be important to identify those at higher risk for noise induced sleep disturbance. Furthermore, the custom to base noise policy and legislation on average responses should be re-assessed based on these findings. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Comparative plasma salicylate and urine salicylurate levels following administration of aspirin, magnesium salicylate, and choline magnesium trisalicylate.

PubMed

Mason, W D

1980-11-01

Eighteen healthy volunteers were administered single doses of commercially available solid dosage forms of aspirin, magnesium salicylate (I), and choline magnesium trisalicylate (II), equivalent to approximately 500 mg of salicylic acid, in a randomized, complete crossover design. Plasma salicylate and urine salicylurate levels were measured by high-pressure liquid chromatography at frequent intervals following dosing; the resultant profiles, areas under the curve (AUC), and percentages of dose excreted as salicylurate were statistically analyzed by an analysis of variance. The plasma salicylate levels following the two dosage forms containing I and II were virtually identical when corrected for small differences in the dose. The plasma salicylic acid level following aspirin was approximately 10% lower during the 1.5--3.0-hr interval due to a portion of unhydrolyzed aspirin, but the dose-corrected AUC for the products tested did not differ significantly (p < 0.05). During the 24 hr following dosing, 66.5 +/- 12.1 68.4 +/- 7.1, and 60.9 +/- 14.1% of the salicylic acid were excreted as urine salicylurate for aspirin, I, and II, respectively, with no significant difference (p < 0.05). Based on this study, there are no significant differences in the rate and extent of absorption of salicylate following the three dosage forms tested, and the elimination kinetics of salicylic acid are not altered by these dosage forms.

The neutron-gamma Feynman variance to mean approach: Gamma detection and total neutron-gamma detection (theory and practice)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernikova, Dina; Axell, Kåre; Avdic, Senada; Pázsit, Imre; Nordlund, Anders; Allard, Stefan

2015-05-01

Two versions of the neutron-gamma variance to mean (Feynman-alpha method or Feynman-Y function) formula for either gamma detection only or total neutron-gamma detection, respectively, are derived and compared in this paper. The new formulas have particular importance for detectors of either gamma photons or detectors sensitive to both neutron and gamma radiation. If applied to a plastic or liquid scintillation detector, the total neutron-gamma detection Feynman-Y expression corresponds to a situation where no discrimination is made between neutrons and gamma particles. The gamma variance to mean formulas are useful when a detector of only gamma radiation is used or when working with a combined neutron-gamma detector at high count rates. The theoretical derivation is based on the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation with the inclusion of general reactions and corresponding intensities for neutrons and gammas, but with the inclusion of prompt reactions only. A one energy group approximation is considered. The comparison of the two different theories is made by using reaction intensities obtained in MCNPX simulations with a simplified geometry for two scintillation detectors and a 252Cf-source. In addition, the variance to mean ratios, neutron, gamma and total neutron-gamma are evaluated experimentally for a weak 252Cf neutron-gamma source, a 137Cs random gamma source and a 22Na correlated gamma source. Due to the focus being on the possibility of using neutron-gamma variance to mean theories for both reactor and safeguards applications, we limited the present study to the general analytical expressions for Feynman-alpha formulas.

Speed Variance and Its Influence on Accidents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garber, Nicholas J.; Gadirau, Ravi

A study was conducted to investigate the traffic engineering factors that influence speed variance and to determine to what extent speed variance affects accident rates. Detailed analyses were carried out to relate speed variance with posted speed limit, design speeds, and other traffic variables. The major factor identified was the difference…

Non-local means denoising of dynamic PET images.

PubMed

Dutta, Joyita; Leahy, Richard M; Li, Quanzheng

2013-01-01

Dynamic positron emission tomography (PET), which reveals information about both the spatial distribution and temporal kinetics of a radiotracer, enables quantitative interpretation of PET data. Model-based interpretation of dynamic PET images by means of parametric fitting, however, is often a challenging task due to high levels of noise, thus necessitating a denoising step. The objective of this paper is to develop and characterize a denoising framework for dynamic PET based on non-local means (NLM). NLM denoising computes weighted averages of voxel intensities assigning larger weights to voxels that are similar to a given voxel in terms of their local neighborhoods or patches. We introduce three key modifications to tailor the original NLM framework to dynamic PET. Firstly, we derive similarities from less noisy later time points in a typical PET acquisition to denoise the entire time series. Secondly, we use spatiotemporal patches for robust similarity computation. Finally, we use a spatially varying smoothing parameter based on a local variance approximation over each spatiotemporal patch. To assess the performance of our denoising technique, we performed a realistic simulation on a dynamic digital phantom based on the Digimouse atlas. For experimental validation, we denoised [Formula: see text] PET images from a mouse study and a hepatocellular carcinoma patient study. We compared the performance of NLM denoising with four other denoising approaches - Gaussian filtering, PCA, HYPR, and conventional NLM based on spatial patches. The simulation study revealed significant improvement in bias-variance performance achieved using our NLM technique relative to all the other methods. The experimental data analysis revealed that our technique leads to clear improvement in contrast-to-noise ratio in Patlak parametric images generated from denoised preclinical and clinical dynamic images, indicating its ability to preserve image contrast and high intensity details while lowering the background noise variance.

A classical regression framework for mediation analysis: fitting one model to estimate mediation effects.

PubMed

Saunders, Christina T; Blume, Jeffrey D

2017-10-26

Mediation analysis explores the degree to which an exposure's effect on an outcome is diverted through a mediating variable. We describe a classical regression framework for conducting mediation analyses in which estimates of causal mediation effects and their variance are obtained from the fit of a single regression model. The vector of changes in exposure pathway coefficients, which we named the essential mediation components (EMCs), is used to estimate standard causal mediation effects. Because these effects are often simple functions of the EMCs, an analytical expression for their model-based variance follows directly. Given this formula, it is instructive to revisit the performance of routinely used variance approximations (e.g., delta method and resampling methods). Requiring the fit of only one model reduces the computation time required for complex mediation analyses and permits the use of a rich suite of regression tools that are not easily implemented on a system of three equations, as would be required in the Baron-Kenny framework. Using data from the BRAIN-ICU study, we provide examples to illustrate the advantages of this framework and compare it with the existing approaches. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Polynomial-Time Approximation Algorithm for the Problem of Cardinality-Weighted Variance-Based 2-Clustering with a Given Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kel'manov, A. V.; Motkova, A. V.

2018-01-01

A strongly NP-hard problem of partitioning a finite set of points of Euclidean space into two clusters is considered. The solution criterion is the minimum of the sum (over both clusters) of weighted sums of squared distances from the elements of each cluster to its geometric center. The weights of the sums are equal to the cardinalities of the desired clusters. The center of one cluster is given as input, while the center of the other is unknown and is determined as the point of space equal to the mean of the cluster elements. A version of the problem is analyzed in which the cardinalities of the clusters are given as input. A polynomial-time 2-approximation algorithm for solving the problem is constructed.

Precision of systematic and random sampling in clustered populations: habitat patches and aggregating organisms.

PubMed

McGarvey, Richard; Burch, Paul; Matthews, Janet M

2016-01-01

Natural populations of plants and animals spatially cluster because (1) suitable habitat is patchy, and (2) within suitable habitat, individuals aggregate further into clusters of higher density. We compare the precision of random and systematic field sampling survey designs under these two processes of species clustering. Second, we evaluate the performance of 13 estimators for the variance of the sample mean from a systematic survey. Replicated simulated surveys, as counts from 100 transects, allocated either randomly or systematically within the study region, were used to estimate population density in six spatial point populations including habitat patches and Matérn circular clustered aggregations of organisms, together and in combination. The standard one-start aligned systematic survey design, a uniform 10 x 10 grid of transects, was much more precise. Variances of the 10 000 replicated systematic survey mean densities were one-third to one-fifth of those from randomly allocated transects, implying transect sample sizes giving equivalent precision by random survey would need to be three to five times larger. Organisms being restricted to patches of habitat was alone sufficient to yield this precision advantage for the systematic design. But this improved precision for systematic sampling in clustered populations is underestimated by standard variance estimators used to compute confidence intervals. True variance for the survey sample mean was computed from the variance of 10 000 simulated survey mean estimates. Testing 10 published and three newly proposed variance estimators, the two variance estimators (v) that corrected for inter-transect correlation (ν₈ and ν(W)) were the most accurate and also the most precise in clustered populations. These greatly outperformed the two "post-stratification" variance estimators (ν₂ and ν₃) that are now more commonly applied in systematic surveys. Similar variance estimator performance rankings were found with a second differently generated set of spatial point populations, ν₈ and ν(W) again being the best performers in the longer-range autocorrelated populations. However, no systematic variance estimators tested were free from bias. On balance, systematic designs bring more narrow confidence intervals in clustered populations, while random designs permit unbiased estimates of (often wider) confidence interval. The search continues for better estimators of sampling variance for the systematic survey mean.

Squeezing and its graphical representations in the anharmonic oscillator model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaś, R.; Miranowicz, A.; Kielich, S.

1991-04-01

The problem of squeezing and its graphical representations in the anharmonic oscillator model is considered. Explicit formulas for squeezing, principal squeezing, and the quasiprobability distribution (QPD) function are given and illustrated graphically. Approximate analytical formulas for the variances, extremal variances, and QPD are obtained for the case of small nonlinearities and large numbers of photons. The possibility of almost perfect squeezing in the model is demonstrated and its graphical representations in the form of variance lemniscates and QPD contours are plotted. For large numbers of photons the crescent shape of the QPD contours is hardly visible and quite regular ellipses are obtained.

Ocean mixing beneath Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, Satoshi; Jenkins, Adrian; Dutrieux, Pierre; Forryan, Alexander; Naveira Garabato, Alberto C.; Firing, Yvonne

2016-12-01

Ice shelves around Antarctica are vulnerable to an increase in ocean-driven melting, with the melt rate depending on ocean temperature and the strength of flow inside the ice-shelf cavities. We present measurements of velocity, temperature, salinity, turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate, and thermal variance dissipation rate beneath Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, West Antarctica. These measurements were obtained by CTD, ADCP, and turbulence sensors mounted on an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). The highest turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate is found near the grounding line. The thermal variance dissipation rate increases closer to the ice-shelf base, with a maximum value found ˜0.5 m away from the ice. The measurements of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate near the ice are used to estimate basal melting of the ice shelf. The dissipation-rate-based melt rate estimates is sensitive to the stability correction parameter in the linear approximation of universal function of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory for stratified boundary layers. We argue that our estimates of basal melting from dissipation rates are within a range of previous estimates of basal melting.

Effect of design selection on response surface performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, William C.

1993-01-01

Artificial neural nets and polynomial approximations were used to develop response surfaces for several test problems. Based on the number of functional evaluations required to build the approximations and the number of undetermined parameters associated with the approximations, the performance of the two types of approximations was found to be comparable. A rule of thumb is developed for determining the number of nodes to be used on a hidden layer of an artificial neural net and the number of designs needed to train an approximation is discussed.

Technical note: A method for assigning animals to treatment groups with unequal count per group that equalizes mean animal weight among groups.

PubMed

Epplin, F M; Haankuku, C; Horn, G W

2015-09-01

Pastures available for grazing studies may be of unequal size and may have heterogeneous carrying capacity necessitating the assignment of unequal numbers of animals per pasture. To reduce experimental error, it is often desirable that the initial mean BW be similar among experimental units. The objective of this note is to present and illustrate the use of a method for assignment of animals to experimental units of different sizes such that the initial mean weight of animals in each unit is approximately the same as the overall mean. Two alternative models were developed and solved to assign each of 231 weaned steers () to 1 of 12 pastures with carrying capacity ranging from 5 to 26 animals per pasture. A solution to Model 1 was obtained in which the mean weights among pastures were approximately the same but the variances among pastures were heteroskedastic, meaning that weight variances across pens were different (-value < 0.05). An alternative model was developed (Model 2) and used to derive assignments with nearly equal mean weights and homoskedastic variances among pastures.

The quantitative LOD score: test statistic and sample size for exclusion and linkage of quantitative traits in human sibships.

PubMed

Page, G P; Amos, C I; Boerwinkle, E

1998-04-01

We present a test statistic, the quantitative LOD (QLOD) score, for the testing of both linkage and exclusion of quantitative-trait loci in randomly selected human sibships. As with the traditional LOD score, the boundary values of 3, for linkage, and -2, for exclusion, can be used for the QLOD score. We investigated the sample sizes required for inferring exclusion and linkage, for various combinations of linked genetic variance, total heritability, recombination distance, and sibship size, using fixed-size sampling. The sample sizes required for both linkage and exclusion were not qualitatively different and depended on the percentage of variance being linked or excluded and on the total genetic variance. Information regarding linkage and exclusion in sibships larger than size 2 increased as approximately all possible pairs n(n-1)/2 up to sibships of size 6. Increasing the recombination (theta) distance between the marker and the trait loci reduced empirically the power for both linkage and exclusion, as a function of approximately (1-2theta)4.

Approximation of Point-Set Images by Plane Curves.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-01

required. A function g satisfying these requirements will be called an influence function . [In practice we choose cg based on the 2g variance a2 of the...noise; for example P(IXl-< ) = .75 where X is a N(0, 2 ) r.v. The influence function could take 2 2 the form g(r) = s(cg - r ) for Oirscg, and some s>OI...value cg as defined in the influence function . We can then expect R( ) to be maximal (locally) at the E’s that fit the largest proportion of the data

Differential equation based method for accurate approximations in optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pritchard, Jocelyn I.; Adelman, Howard M.

1990-01-01

This paper describes a method to efficiently and accurately approximate the effect of design changes on structural response. The key to this new method is to interpret sensitivity equations as differential equations that may be solved explicitly for closed form approximations, hence, the method is denoted the Differential Equation Based (DEB) method. Approximations were developed for vibration frequencies, mode shapes and static displacements. The DEB approximation method was applied to a cantilever beam and results compared with the commonly-used linear Taylor series approximations and exact solutions. The test calculations involved perturbing the height, width, cross-sectional area, tip mass, and bending inertia of the beam. The DEB method proved to be very accurate, and in msot cases, was more accurate than the linear Taylor series approximation. The method is applicable to simultaneous perturbation of several design variables. Also, the approximations may be used to calculate other system response quantities. For example, the approximations for displacement are used to approximate bending stresses.

Differential equation based method for accurate approximations in optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pritchard, Jocelyn I.; Adelman, Howard M.

1990-01-01

A method to efficiently and accurately approximate the effect of design changes on structural response is described. The key to this method is to interpret sensitivity equations as differential equations that may be solved explicitly for closed form approximations, hence, the method is denoted the Differential Equation Based (DEB) method. Approximations were developed for vibration frequencies, mode shapes and static displacements. The DEB approximation method was applied to a cantilever beam and results compared with the commonly-used linear Taylor series approximations and exact solutions. The test calculations involved perturbing the height, width, cross-sectional area, tip mass, and bending inertia of the beam. The DEB method proved to be very accurate, and in most cases, was more accurate than the linear Taylor series approximation. The method is applicable to simultaneous perturbation of several design variables. Also, the approximations may be used to calculate other system response quantities. For example, the approximations for displacements are used to approximate bending stresses.

Metamodels for Computer-Based Engineering Design: Survey and Recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, Timothy W.; Peplinski, Jesse; Koch, Patrick N.; Allen, Janet K.

1997-01-01

The use of statistical techniques to build approximations of expensive computer analysis codes pervades much of todays engineering design. These statistical approximations, or metamodels, are used to replace the actual expensive computer analyses, facilitating multidisciplinary, multiobjective optimization and concept exploration. In this paper we review several of these techniques including design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We survey their existing application in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of statistical approximation techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Factors affecting home care patients' acceptance of a web-based interactive self-management technology

PubMed Central

Karsh, Ben-Tzion; Severtson, Dolores J; Burke, Laura J; Brown, Roger L; Brennan, Patricia Flatley

2010-01-01

Objective With the advent of personal health records and other patient-focused health technologies, there is a growing need to better understand factors that contribute to acceptance and use of such innovations. In this study, we employed the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology as the basis for determining what predicts patients' acceptance (measured by behavioral intention) and perceived effective use of a web-based, interactive self-management innovation among home care patients. Design Cross-sectional secondary analysis of data from a randomized field study evaluating a technology-assisted home care nursing practice with adults with chronic cardiac disease. Measurement and analysis A questionnaire was designed based on validated measurement scales from prior research and was completed by 101 participants for measuring the acceptance constructs as part of the parent study protocol. Latent variable modeling with item parceling guided assessment of patients' acceptance. Results Perceived usefulness accounted for 53.9% of the variability in behavioral intention, the measure of acceptance. Together, perceived usefulness, health care knowledge, and behavioral intention accounted for 68.5% of the variance in perceived effective use. Perceived ease of use and subjective norm indirectly influenced behavioral intention, through perceived usefulness. Perceived ease of use and subjective norm explained 48% of the total variance in perceived usefulness. Conclusion The study demonstrates that perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, subjective norm, and healthcare knowledge together predict most of the variance in patients' acceptance and self-reported use of the web-based self-management technology. PMID:21131605

Predictors of father-son communication about sexuality.

PubMed

Lehr, Sally T; Demi, Alice S; Dilorio, Colleen; Facteau, Jeffrey

2005-05-01

Examining the factors that influence adolescents' sexual behaviors is crucial for understanding why they often engage in risky sexual behaviors. Using social cognitive theory, we examined predictors of father-son communication about sexuality. Fathers (N=155) of adolescent sons completed a survey measuring 12 variables, including self-efficacy and outcome expectations. We found that (a) son's pubertal development, father's sex-based values, father's education; father's communication with his father, outcome expectations, and general communication accounted for 36% of the variance in information sharing communication and (b) son's pubertal development, outcome expectations, general communication, and father-son contact accounted for 20% of the variance in values sharing communication. Study findings can aid professionals in designing guidelines for programs to promote father-son general communication and sex-based communication.

Efficiency of the human observer for detecting a Gaussian signal at a known location in non-Gaussian distributed lumpy backgrounds.

PubMed

Park, Subok; Gallas, Bradon D; Badano, Aldo; Petrick, Nicholas A; Myers, Kyle J

2007-04-01

A previous study [J. Opt. Soc. Am. A22, 3 (2005)] has shown that human efficiency for detecting a Gaussian signal at a known location in non-Gaussian distributed lumpy backgrounds is approximately 4%. This human efficiency is much less than the reported 40% efficiency that has been documented for Gaussian-distributed lumpy backgrounds [J. Opt. Soc. Am. A16, 694 (1999) and J. Opt. Soc. Am. A18, 473 (2001)]. We conducted a psychophysical study with a number of changes, specifically in display-device calibration and data scaling, from the design of the aforementioned study. Human efficiency relative to the ideal observer was found again to be approximately 5%. Our variance analysis indicates that neither scaling nor display made a statistically significant difference in human performance for the task. We conclude that the non-Gaussian distributed lumpy background is a major factor in our low human-efficiency results.

A stochastic Markov chain model to describe lung cancer growth and metastasis.

PubMed

Newton, Paul K; Mason, Jeremy; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila A; Nieva, Jorge; Kuhn, Peter

2012-01-01

A stochastic Markov chain model for metastatic progression is developed for primary lung cancer based on a network construction of metastatic sites with dynamics modeled as an ensemble of random walkers on the network. We calculate a transition matrix, with entries (transition probabilities) interpreted as random variables, and use it to construct a circular bi-directional network of primary and metastatic locations based on postmortem tissue analysis of 3827 autopsies on untreated patients documenting all primary tumor locations and metastatic sites from this population. The resulting 50 potential metastatic sites are connected by directed edges with distributed weightings, where the site connections and weightings are obtained by calculating the entries of an ensemble of transition matrices so that the steady-state distribution obtained from the long-time limit of the Markov chain dynamical system corresponds to the ensemble metastatic distribution obtained from the autopsy data set. We condition our search for a transition matrix on an initial distribution of metastatic tumors obtained from the data set. Through an iterative numerical search procedure, we adjust the entries of a sequence of approximations until a transition matrix with the correct steady-state is found (up to a numerical threshold). Since this constrained linear optimization problem is underdetermined, we characterize the statistical variance of the ensemble of transition matrices calculated using the means and variances of their singular value distributions as a diagnostic tool. We interpret the ensemble averaged transition probabilities as (approximately) normally distributed random variables. The model allows us to simulate and quantify disease progression pathways and timescales of progression from the lung position to other sites and we highlight several key findings based on the model.

Perceived threat and corroboration: key factors that improve a predictive model of trust in internet-based health information and advice.

PubMed

Harris, Peter R; Sillence, Elizabeth; Briggs, Pam

2011-07-27

How do people decide which sites to use when seeking health advice online? We can assume, from related work in e-commerce, that general design factors known to affect trust in the site are important, but in this paper we also address the impact of factors specific to the health domain. The current study aimed to (1) assess the factorial structure of a general measure of Web trust, (2) model how the resultant factors predicted trust in, and readiness to act on, the advice found on health-related websites, and (3) test whether adding variables from social cognition models to capture elements of the response to threatening, online health-risk information enhanced the prediction of these outcomes. Participants were asked to recall a site they had used to search for health-related information and to think of that site when answering an online questionnaire. The questionnaire consisted of a general Web trust questionnaire plus items assessing appraisals of the site, including threat appraisals, information checking, and corroboration. It was promoted on the hungersite.com website. The URL was distributed via Yahoo and local print media. We assessed the factorial structure of the measures using principal components analysis and modeled how well they predicted the outcome measures using structural equation modeling (SEM) with EQS software. We report an analysis of the responses of participants who searched for health advice for themselves (N = 561). Analysis of the general Web trust questionnaire revealed 4 factors: information quality, personalization, impartiality, and credible design. In the final SEM model, information quality and impartiality were direct predictors of trust. However, variables specific to eHealth (perceived threat, coping, and corroboration) added substantially to the ability of the model to predict variance in trust and readiness to act on advice on the site. The final model achieved a satisfactory fit: χ(2) (5) = 10.8 (P = .21), comparative fit index = .99, root mean square error of approximation = .052. The model accounted for 66% of the variance in trust and 49% of the variance in readiness to act on the advice. Adding variables specific to eHealth enhanced the ability of a model of trust to predict trust and readiness to act on advice.

Perceived Threat and Corroboration: Key Factors That Improve a Predictive Model of Trust in Internet-based Health Information and Advice

PubMed Central

Harris, Peter R; Briggs, Pam

2011-01-01

Background How do people decide which sites to use when seeking health advice online? We can assume, from related work in e-commerce, that general design factors known to affect trust in the site are important, but in this paper we also address the impact of factors specific to the health domain. Objective The current study aimed to (1) assess the factorial structure of a general measure of Web trust, (2) model how the resultant factors predicted trust in, and readiness to act on, the advice found on health-related websites, and (3) test whether adding variables from social cognition models to capture elements of the response to threatening, online health-risk information enhanced the prediction of these outcomes. Methods Participants were asked to recall a site they had used to search for health-related information and to think of that site when answering an online questionnaire. The questionnaire consisted of a general Web trust questionnaire plus items assessing appraisals of the site, including threat appraisals, information checking, and corroboration. It was promoted on the hungersite.com website. The URL was distributed via Yahoo and local print media. We assessed the factorial structure of the measures using principal components analysis and modeled how well they predicted the outcome measures using structural equation modeling (SEM) with EQS software. Results We report an analysis of the responses of participants who searched for health advice for themselves (N = 561). Analysis of the general Web trust questionnaire revealed 4 factors: information quality, personalization, impartiality, and credible design. In the final SEM model, information quality and impartiality were direct predictors of trust. However, variables specific to eHealth (perceived threat, coping, and corroboration) added substantially to the ability of the model to predict variance in trust and readiness to act on advice on the site. The final model achieved a satisfactory fit: χ2 5 = 10.8 (P = .21), comparative fit index = .99, root mean square error of approximation = .052. The model accounted for 66% of the variance in trust and 49% of the variance in readiness to act on the advice. Conclusions Adding variables specific to eHealth enhanced the ability of a model of trust to predict trust and readiness to act on advice. PMID:21795237

Approximation methods for combined thermal/structural design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haftka, R. T.; Shore, C. P.

1979-01-01

Two approximation concepts for combined thermal/structural design are evaluated. The first concept is an approximate thermal analysis based on the first derivatives of structural temperatures with respect to design variables. Two commonly used first-order Taylor series expansions are examined. The direct and reciprocal expansions are special members of a general family of approximations, and for some conditions other members of that family of approximations are more accurate. Several examples are used to compare the accuracy of the different expansions. The second approximation concept is the use of critical time points for combined thermal and stress analyses of structures with transient loading conditions. Significant time savings are realized by identifying critical time points and performing the stress analysis for those points only. The design of an insulated panel which is exposed to transient heating conditions is discussed.

Statistics of the radiated field of a space-to-earth microwave power transfer system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevens, G. H.; Leininger, G.

1976-01-01

Statistics such as average power density pattern, variance of the power density pattern and variance of the beam pointing error are related to hardware parameters such as transmitter rms phase error and rms amplitude error. Also a limitation on spectral width of the phase reference for phase control was established. A 1 km diameter transmitter appears feasible provided the total rms insertion phase errors of the phase control modules does not exceed 10 deg, amplitude errors do not exceed 10% rms, and the phase reference spectral width does not exceed approximately 3 kHz. With these conditions the expected radiation pattern is virtually the same as the error free pattern, and the rms beam pointing error would be insignificant (approximately 10 meters).

A Probabilistic Mass Estimation Algorithm for a Novel 7- Channel Capacitive Sample Verification Sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolf, Michael

2012-01-01

A document describes an algorithm created to estimate the mass placed on a sample verification sensor (SVS) designed for lunar or planetary robotic sample return missions. A novel SVS measures the capacitance between a rigid bottom plate and an elastic top membrane in seven locations. As additional sample material (soil and/or small rocks) is placed on the top membrane, the deformation of the membrane increases the capacitance. The mass estimation algorithm addresses both the calibration of each SVS channel, and also addresses how to combine the capacitances read from each of the seven channels into a single mass estimate. The probabilistic approach combines the channels according to the variance observed during the training phase, and provides not only the mass estimate, but also a value for the certainty of the estimate. SVS capacitance data is collected for known masses under a wide variety of possible loading scenarios, though in all cases, the distribution of sample within the canister is expected to be approximately uniform. A capacitance-vs-mass curve is fitted to this data, and is subsequently used to determine the mass estimate for the single channel s capacitance reading during the measurement phase. This results in seven different mass estimates, one for each SVS channel. Moreover, the variance of the calibration data is used to place a Gaussian probability distribution function (pdf) around this mass estimate. To blend these seven estimates, the seven pdfs are combined into a single Gaussian distribution function, providing the final mean and variance of the estimate. This blending technique essentially takes the final estimate as an average of the estimates of the seven channels, weighted by the inverse of the channel s variance.

Critical evaluation of connectivity-based point of care testing systems of glucose in a hospital environment.

PubMed

Floré, Katelijne M J; Fiers, Tom; Delanghe, Joris R

2008-01-01

In recent years a number of point of care testing (POCT) glucometers were introduced on the market. We investigated the analytical variability (lot-to-lot variation, calibration error, inter-instrument and inter-operator variability) of glucose POCT systems in a university hospital environment and compared these results with the analytical needs required for tight glucose monitoring. The reference hexokinase method was compared to different POCT systems based on glucose oxidase (blood gas instruments) or glucose dehydrogenase (handheld glucometers). Based upon daily internal quality control data, total errors were calculated for the various glucose methods and the analytical variability of the glucometers was estimated. The total error of the glucometers exceeded by far the desirable analytical specifications (based on a biological variability model). Lot-to-lot variation, inter-instrument variation and inter-operator variability contributed approximately equally to total variance. As in a hospital environment, distribution of hematocrit values is broad, converting blood glucose into plasma values using a fixed factor further increases variance. The percentage of outliers exceeded the ISO 15197 criteria in a broad glucose concentration range. Total analytical variation of handheld glucometers is larger than expected. Clinicians should be aware that the variability of glucose measurements obtained by blood gas instruments is lower than results obtained with handheld glucometers on capillary blood.

Statistics based sampling for controller and estimator design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenne, Dirk

The purpose of this research is the development of statistical design tools for robust feed-forward/feedback controllers and nonlinear estimators. This dissertation is threefold and addresses the aforementioned topics nonlinear estimation, target tracking and robust control. To develop statistically robust controllers and nonlinear estimation algorithms, research has been performed to extend existing techniques, which propagate the statistics of the state, to achieve higher order accuracy. The so-called unscented transformation has been extended to capture higher order moments. Furthermore, higher order moment update algorithms based on a truncated power series have been developed. The proposed techniques are tested on various benchmark examples. Furthermore, the unscented transformation has been utilized to develop a three dimensional geometrically constrained target tracker. The proposed planar circular prediction algorithm has been developed in a local coordinate framework, which is amenable to extension of the tracking algorithm to three dimensional space. This tracker combines the predictions of a circular prediction algorithm and a constant velocity filter by utilizing the Covariance Intersection. This combined prediction can be updated with the subsequent measurement using a linear estimator. The proposed technique is illustrated on a 3D benchmark trajectory, which includes coordinated turns and straight line maneuvers. The third part of this dissertation addresses the design of controller which include knowledge of parametric uncertainties and their distributions. The parameter distributions are approximated by a finite set of points which are calculated by the unscented transformation. This set of points is used to design robust controllers which minimize a statistical performance of the plant over the domain of uncertainty consisting of a combination of the mean and variance. The proposed technique is illustrated on three benchmark problems. The first relates to the design of prefilters for a linear and nonlinear spring-mass-dashpot system and the second applies a feedback controller to a hovering helicopter. Lastly, the statistical robust controller design is devoted to a concurrent feed-forward/feedback controller structure for a high-speed low tension tape drive.

Optimization and physicochemical characterization of a triamcinolone acetonide-loaded NLC for ocular antiangiogenic applications.

PubMed

Araújo, J; Gonzalez-Mira, E; Egea, M A; Garcia, M L; Souto, E B

2010-06-30

The purpose of this study was to develop a novel nanostructured lipid carrier (NLC) for the intravitreal-targeting delivery of triamcinolone acetonide (TA) by direct ocular instillation. A five-level central composite rotable design was used to study the influence of four different variables on the physicochemical characteristics of NLCs. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical test was used to assess the optimization of NLC production parameters. The systems were produced by high pressure homogenization using Precirol ATO5 and squalene as solid and liquid lipids respectively, and Lutrol F68 as surfactant. Homogenization at 600 bar for 3 cycles of the optimized formulation resulted in the production of small NLC (mean diameter < 200 nm) with a homogeneous particle size distribution (polydispersity index (PI) approximately 0.1), of negatively charged surface (approximately |45| mV) and high entrapment efficiency (approximately 95%). Surface morphology was assessed by SEM which revealed fairly spherical shape. DSC, WAXS and FT-IR analyses confirmed that TA was mostly entrapped into the NLC, characterized by an amorphous matrix. In vivo Draize test showed no signs of ocular toxicity. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting dense nonaqueous phase liquid dissolution using a simplified source depletion model parameterized with partitioning tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Nandita B.; Fure, Adrian D.; Jawitz, James W.

2008-07-01

Simulations of nonpartitioning and partitioning tracer tests were used to parameterize the equilibrium stream tube model (ESM) that predicts the dissolution dynamics of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) as a function of the Lagrangian properties of DNAPL source zones. Lagrangian, or stream-tube-based, approaches characterize source zones with as few as two trajectory-integrated parameters, in contrast to the potentially thousands of parameters required to describe the point-by-point variability in permeability and DNAPL in traditional Eulerian modeling approaches. The spill and subsequent dissolution of DNAPLs were simulated in two-dimensional domains having different hydrologic characteristics (variance of the log conductivity field = 0.2, 1, and 3) using the multiphase flow and transport simulator UTCHEM. Nonpartitioning and partitioning tracers were used to characterize the Lagrangian properties (travel time and trajectory-integrated DNAPL content statistics) of DNAPL source zones, which were in turn shown to be sufficient for accurate prediction of source dissolution behavior using the ESM throughout the relatively broad range of hydraulic conductivity variances tested here. The results were found to be relatively insensitive to travel time variability, suggesting that dissolution could be accurately predicted even if the travel time variance was only coarsely estimated. Estimation of the ESM parameters was also demonstrated using an approximate technique based on Eulerian data in the absence of tracer data; however, determining the minimum amount of such data required remains for future work. Finally, the stream tube model was shown to be a more unique predictor of dissolution behavior than approaches based on the ganglia-to-pool model for source zone characterization.

Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Lall, Upmanu; Saltzman, Barry

1995-01-01

We demonstrate connections between decadal and secular global climatic variations, and historical variations in the volume of the Great Salt Lake. The decadal variations correspond to a low-frequency shifting of storm tracks which influence winter precipitation and explain nearly 18% of the interannual and longer-term variance in the record of monthly volume change. The secular trend accounts for a more modest approximately 1.5% of the variance.

Genetic variants associated with cardiac structure and function: a meta-analysis and replication of genome-wide association data.

PubMed

Vasan, Ramachandran S; Glazer, Nicole L; Felix, Janine F; Lieb, Wolfgang; Wild, Philipp S; Felix, Stephan B; Watzinger, Norbert; Larson, Martin G; Smith, Nicholas L; Dehghan, Abbas; Grosshennig, Anika; Schillert, Arne; Teumer, Alexander; Schmidt, Reinhold; Kathiresan, Sekar; Lumley, Thomas; Aulchenko, Yurii S; König, Inke R; Zeller, Tanja; Homuth, Georg; Struchalin, Maksim; Aragam, Jayashri; Bis, Joshua C; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Erdmann, Jeanette; Schnabel, Renate B; Dörr, Marcus; Zweiker, Robert; Lind, Lars; Rodeheffer, Richard J; Greiser, Karin Halina; Levy, Daniel; Haritunians, Talin; Deckers, Jaap W; Stritzke, Jan; Lackner, Karl J; Völker, Uwe; Ingelsson, Erik; Kullo, Iftikhar; Haerting, Johannes; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Heckbert, Susan R; Stricker, Bruno H; Ziegler, Andreas; Reffelmann, Thorsten; Redfield, Margaret M; Werdan, Karl; Mitchell, Gary F; Rice, Kenneth; Arnett, Donna K; Hofman, Albert; Gottdiener, John S; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Meitinger, Thomas; Blettner, Maria; Friedrich, Nele; Wang, Thomas J; Psaty, Bruce M; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Wichmann, H-Erich; Munzel, Thomas F; Kroemer, Heyo K; Benjamin, Emelia J; Rotter, Jerome I; Witteman, Jacqueline C; Schunkert, Heribert; Schmidt, Helena; Völzke, Henry; Blankenberg, Stefan

2009-07-08

Echocardiographic measures of left ventricular (LV) structure and function are heritable phenotypes of cardiovascular disease. To identify common genetic variants associated with cardiac structure and function by conducting a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data in 5 population-based cohort studies (stage 1) with replication (stage 2) in 2 other community-based samples. Within each of 5 community-based cohorts comprising the EchoGen consortium (stage 1; n = 12 612 individuals of European ancestry; 55% women, aged 26-95 years; examinations between 1978-2008), we estimated the association between approximately 2.5 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; imputed to the HapMap CEU panel) and echocardiographic traits. In stage 2, SNPs significantly associated with traits in stage 1 were tested for association in 2 other cohorts (n = 4094 people of European ancestry). Using a prespecified P value threshold of 5 x 10(-7) to indicate genome-wide significance, we performed an inverse variance-weighted fixed-effects meta-analysis of genome-wide association data from each cohort. Echocardiographic traits: LV mass, internal dimensions, wall thickness, systolic dysfunction, aortic root, and left atrial size. In stage 1, 16 genetic loci were associated with 5 echocardiographic traits: 1 each with LV internal dimensions and systolic dysfunction, 3 each with LV mass and wall thickness, and 8 with aortic root size. In stage 2, 5 loci replicated (6q22 locus associated with LV diastolic dimensions, explaining <1% of trait variance; 5q23, 12p12, 12q14, and 17p13 associated with aortic root size, explaining 1%-3% of trait variance). We identified 5 genetic loci harboring common variants that were associated with variation in LV diastolic dimensions and aortic root size, but such findings explained a very small proportion of variance. Further studies are required to replicate these findings, identify the causal variants at or near these loci, characterize their functional significance, and determine whether they are related to overt cardiovascular disease.

Turbulence measurements using tethered balloon instrumentation during FIRE 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hignett, Phillip

1990-01-01

As part of the surface-based observations conducted on San Nicolas Island, the U.K. Meteorological Office operated a set of turbulence probes attached to a balloon tether cable. Typically six probes were used, each capable of measuring momentum, heat, and humidity fluxes. Two probes were fitted with net radiometers, one positioned above cloud and the other below; a third probe carried a Lyman-alpha hygrometer fitted with a pre-heater for the measurement of total water content. Some preliminary results are presented from the 14th July describing the variation in structure of the cloudy boundary layer during the daytime. This day was characterized by a complete cloud cover, an inversion height of approximately 600 m. and north-westerly winds of approximately 6 m.s(-1). As an illustration the equivalent potential temperature derived from a profile ascent made between approximately 0830 and 0930 (PDT) is shown. The data has been smoothed to a height resolution of about 4 metres. At this time the cloud base was approximately 200 m. and very light drizzle was reaching the surface. The vertical velocity variance and potential temperature flux for two periods are shown; the first (shown by full lines) immediately follows the profile and the second (shown by dashed lines) is central around 1400 (PDT). The data have been normalized by their maximum values in the first period. Cloud base has now risen to approximately 300 m. There is a marked variation during the morning, particularly in sigma w. The net radiative flux above cloud top has by now reached its maximum value.

Stratified sampling design based on data mining.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonkook J; Oh, Yoonhwan; Park, Sunghoon; Cho, Sungzoon; Park, Hayoung

2013-09-01

To explore classification rules based on data mining methodologies which are to be used in defining strata in stratified sampling of healthcare providers with improved sampling efficiency. We performed k-means clustering to group providers with similar characteristics, then, constructed decision trees on cluster labels to generate stratification rules. We assessed the variance explained by the stratification proposed in this study and by conventional stratification to evaluate the performance of the sampling design. We constructed a study database from health insurance claims data and providers' profile data made available to this study by the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service of South Korea, and population data from Statistics Korea. From our database, we used the data for single specialty clinics or hospitals in two specialties, general surgery and ophthalmology, for the year 2011 in this study. Data mining resulted in five strata in general surgery with two stratification variables, the number of inpatients per specialist and population density of provider location, and five strata in ophthalmology with two stratification variables, the number of inpatients per specialist and number of beds. The percentages of variance in annual changes in the productivity of specialists explained by the stratification in general surgery and ophthalmology were 22% and 8%, respectively, whereas conventional stratification by the type of provider location and number of beds explained 2% and 0.2% of variance, respectively. This study demonstrated that data mining methods can be used in designing efficient stratified sampling with variables readily available to the insurer and government; it offers an alternative to the existing stratification method that is widely used in healthcare provider surveys in South Korea.

Precision, Reliability, and Effect Size of Slope Variance in Latent Growth Curve Models: Implications for Statistical Power Analysis

PubMed Central

Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lindenberger, Ulman; Hertzog, Christopher

2018-01-01

Latent Growth Curve Models (LGCM) have become a standard technique to model change over time. Prediction and explanation of inter-individual differences in change are major goals in lifespan research. The major determinants of statistical power to detect individual differences in change are the magnitude of true inter-individual differences in linear change (LGCM slope variance), design precision, alpha level, and sample size. Here, we show that design precision can be expressed as the inverse of effective error. Effective error is determined by instrument reliability and the temporal arrangement of measurement occasions. However, it also depends on another central LGCM component, the variance of the latent intercept and its covariance with the latent slope. We derive a new reliability index for LGCM slope variance—effective curve reliability (ECR)—by scaling slope variance against effective error. ECR is interpretable as a standardized effect size index. We demonstrate how effective error, ECR, and statistical power for a likelihood ratio test of zero slope variance formally relate to each other and how they function as indices of statistical power. We also provide a computational approach to derive ECR for arbitrary intercept-slope covariance. With practical use cases, we argue for the complementary utility of the proposed indices of a study's sensitivity to detect slope variance when making a priori longitudinal design decisions or communicating study designs. PMID:29755377

Performance of Language-Coordinated Collective Systems: A Study of Wine Recognition and Description

PubMed Central

Zubek, Julian; Denkiewicz, Michał; Dębska, Agnieszka; Radkowska, Alicja; Komorowska-Mach, Joanna; Litwin, Piotr; Stępień, Magdalena; Kucińska, Adrianna; Sitarska, Ewa; Komorowska, Krystyna; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Rączaszek-Leonardi, Joanna

2016-01-01

Most of our perceptions of and engagements with the world are shaped by our immersion in social interactions, cultural traditions, tools and linguistic categories. In this study we experimentally investigate the impact of two types of language-based coordination on the recognition and description of complex sensory stimuli: that of red wine. Participants were asked to taste, remember and successively recognize samples of wines within a larger set in a two-by-two experimental design: (1) either individually or in pairs, and (2) with or without the support of a sommelier card—a cultural linguistic tool designed for wine description. Both effectiveness of recognition and the kinds of errors in the four conditions were analyzed. While our experimental manipulations did not impact recognition accuracy, bias-variance decomposition of error revealed non-trivial differences in how participants solved the task. Pairs generally displayed reduced bias and increased variance compared to individuals, however the variance dropped significantly when they used the sommelier card. The effect of sommelier card reducing the variance was observed only in pairs, individuals did not seem to benefit from the cultural linguistic tool. Analysis of descriptions generated with the aid of sommelier cards shows that pairs were more coherent and discriminative than individuals. The findings are discussed in terms of global properties and dynamics of collective systems when constrained by different types of cultural practices. PMID:27729875

Effects of Various Architectural Parameters on Six Room Acoustical Measures in Auditoria.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Wei-Hwa

The effects of architectural parameters on six room acoustical measures were investigated by means of correlation analyses, factor analyses and multiple regression analyses based on data taken in twenty halls. Architectural parameters were used to estimate acoustical measures taken at individual locations within each room as well as the averages and standard deviations of all measured values in the rooms. The six acoustical measures were Early Decay Time (EDT10), Clarity Index (C80), Overall Level (G), Bass Ratio based on Early Decay Time (BR(EDT)), Treble Ratio based on Early Decay Time (TR(EDT)), and Early Inter-aural Cross Correlation (IACC80). A comprehensive method of quantifying various architectural characteristics of rooms was developed to define a large number of architectural parameters that were hypothesized to effect the acoustical measurements made in the rooms. This study quantitatively confirmed many of the principles used in the design of concert halls and auditoria. Three groups of room architectural parameters such as the parameters associated with the depth of diffusing surfaces were significantly correlated with the hall standard deviations of most of the acoustical measures. Significant differences of statistical relations among architectural parameters and receiver specific acoustical measures were found between a group of music halls and a group of lecture halls. For example, architectural parameters such as the relative distance from the receiver to the overhead ceiling increased the percentage of the variance of acoustical measures that was explained by Barron's revised theory from approximately 70% to 80% only when data were taken in the group of music halls. This study revealed the major architectural parameters which have strong relations with individual acoustical measures forming the basis for a more quantitative method for advancing the theoretical design of concert halls and other auditoria. The results of this study provide designers the information to predict acoustical measures in buildings at very early stages of the design process without using computer models or scale models.

Spatial Risk Assessments Based on Vector-Borne Disease Epidemiologic Data: Importance of Scale for West Nile Virus Disease in Colorado

PubMed Central

Winters, Anna M.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Delorey, Mark J.; Fischer, Marc; Nasci, Roger S.; Zielinski-Gutierrez, Emily; Moore, Chester G.; Pape, W. John; Eisen, Lars

2010-01-01

We used epidemiologic data for human West Nile virus (WNV) disease in Colorado from 2003 and 2007 to determine 1) the degree to which estimates of vector-borne disease occurrence is influenced by spatial scale of data aggregation (county versus census tract), and 2) the extent of concordance between spatial risk patterns based on case counts versus incidence. Statistical analyses showed that county, compared with census tract, accounted for approximately 50% of the overall variance in WNV disease incidence, and approximately 33% for the subset of cases classified as West Nile neuroinvasive disease. These findings indicate that sub-county scale presentation provides valuable risk information for stakeholders. There was high concordance between spatial patterns of WNV disease incidence and case counts for census tract (83%) but not for county (50%) or zip code (31%). We discuss how these findings impact on practices to develop spatial epidemiologic data for vector-borne diseases and present data to stakeholders. PMID:20439980

Acceleration of MCNP calculations for small pipes configurations by using Weigth Windows Importance cards created by the SN-3D ATTILA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castanier, Eric; Paterne, Loic; Louis, Céline

2017-09-01

In the nuclear engineering, you have to manage time and precision. Especially in shielding design, you have to be more accurate and efficient to reduce cost (shielding thickness optimization), and for this, you use 3D codes. In this paper, we want to see if we can easily applicate the CADIS methods for design shielding of small pipes which go through large concrete walls. We assess the impact of the WW generated by the 3D-deterministic code ATTILA versus WW directly generated by MCNP (iterative and manual process). The comparison is based on the quality of the convergence (estimated relative error (σ), Variance of Variance (VOV) and Figure of Merit (FOM)), on time (computer time + modelling) and on the implement for the engineer.

A novel surrogate-based approach for optimal design of electromagnetic-based circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Abdel-Karim S. O.; Mohamed, Ahmed S. A.; Rabie, Azza A.; Etman, Ahmed S.

2016-02-01

A new geometric design centring approach for optimal design of central processing unit-intensive electromagnetic (EM)-based circuits is introduced. The approach uses norms related to the probability distribution of the circuit parameters to find distances from a point to the feasible region boundaries by solving nonlinear optimization problems. Based on these normed distances, the design centring problem is formulated as a max-min optimization problem. A convergent iterative boundary search technique is exploited to find the normed distances. To alleviate the computation cost associated with the EM-based circuits design cycle, space-mapping (SM) surrogates are used to create a sequence of iteratively updated feasible region approximations. In each SM feasible region approximation, the centring process using normed distances is implemented, leading to a better centre point. The process is repeated until a final design centre is attained. Practical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the new design centring method for EM-based circuits.

Parameter estimation in 3D affine and similarity transformation: implementation of variance component estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiri-Simkooei, A. R.

2018-01-01

Three-dimensional (3D) coordinate transformations, generally consisting of origin shifts, axes rotations, scale changes, and skew parameters, are widely used in many geomatics applications. Although in some geodetic applications simplified transformation models are used based on the assumption of small transformation parameters, in other fields of applications such parameters are indeed large. The algorithms of two recent papers on the weighted total least-squares (WTLS) problem are used for the 3D coordinate transformation. The methodology can be applied to the case when the transformation parameters are generally large of which no approximate values of the parameters are required. Direct linearization of the rotation and scale parameters is thus not required. The WTLS formulation is employed to take into consideration errors in both the start and target systems on the estimation of the transformation parameters. Two of the well-known 3D transformation methods, namely affine (12, 9, and 8 parameters) and similarity (7 and 6 parameters) transformations, can be handled using the WTLS theory subject to hard constraints. Because the method can be formulated by the standard least-squares theory with constraints, the covariance matrix of the transformation parameters can directly be provided. The above characteristics of the 3D coordinate transformation are implemented in the presence of different variance components, which are estimated using the least squares variance component estimation. In particular, the estimability of the variance components is investigated. The efficacy of the proposed formulation is verified on two real data sets.

Second-moment budgets in cloud topped boundary layers: A large-eddy simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinze, Rieke; Mironov, Dmitrii; Raasch, Siegfried

2015-06-01

A detailed analysis of second-order moment budgets for cloud topped boundary layers (CTBLs) is performed using high-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES). Two CTBLs are simulated—one with trade wind shallow cumuli, and the other with nocturnal marine stratocumuli. Approximations to the ensemble-mean budgets of the Reynolds-stress components, of the fluxes of two quasi-conservative scalars, and of the scalar variances and covariance are computed by averaging the LES data over horizontal planes and over several hundred time steps. Importantly, the subgrid scale contributions to the budget terms are accounted for. Analysis of the LES-based second-moment budgets reveals, among other things, a paramount importance of the pressure scrambling terms in the Reynolds-stress and scalar-flux budgets. The pressure-strain correlation tends to evenly redistribute kinetic energy between the components, leading to the growth of horizontal-velocity variances at the expense of the vertical-velocity variance which is produced by buoyancy over most of both CTBLs. The pressure gradient-scalar covariances are the major sink terms in the budgets of scalar fluxes. The third-order transport proves to be of secondary importance in the scalar-flux budgets. However, it plays a key role in maintaining budgets of TKE and of the scalar variances and covariance. Results from the second-moment budget analysis suggest that the accuracy of description of the CTBL structure within the second-order closure framework strongly depends on the fidelity of parameterizations of the pressure scrambling terms in the flux budgets and of the third-order transport terms in the variance budgets. This article was corrected on 26 JUN 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm. PMID:26305462

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.

PubMed

Shinzato, Takashi; Yasuda, Muneki

2015-01-01

The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.

Examining the Role of Multicultural Competence in Leadership Program Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Amy B.

2015-01-01

Research examining the multicultural competence of leadership educators across a variety of institutions demonstrated variance based on leadership program structure, program elements, and the ways in which diversity was addressed in the program. The Multicultural Competence in Student Affairs-Preliminary 2 (MCSA-P2) scale was used to measure…

Hidden Markov analysis of mechanosensitive ion channel gating.

PubMed

Khan, R Nazim; Martinac, Boris; Madsen, Barry W; Milne, Robin K; Yeo, Geoffrey F; Edeson, Robert O

2005-02-01

Patch clamp data from the large conductance mechanosensitive channel (MscL) in E. coli was studied with the aim of developing a strategy for statistical analysis based on hidden Markov models (HMMs) and determining the number of conductance levels of the channel, together with mean current, mean dwell time and equilibrium probability of occupancy for each level. The models incorporated state-dependent white noise and moving average adjustment for filtering, with maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained using an EM (expectation-maximisation) based iteration. Adjustment for filtering was included as it could be expected that the electronic filter used in recording would have a major effect on obviously brief intermediate conductance level sojourns. Preliminary data analysis revealed that the brevity of intermediate level sojourns caused difficulties in assignment of data points to levels as a result of over-estimation of noise variances. When reasonable constraints were placed on these variances using the better determined noise variances for the closed and fully open levels, idealisation anomalies were eliminated. Nevertheless, simulations suggested that mean sojourn times for the intermediate levels were still considerably over-estimated, and that recording bandwidth was a major limitation; improved results were obtained with higher bandwidth data (10 kHz sampled at 25 kHz). The simplest model consistent with these data had four open conductance levels, intermediate levels being approximately 20%, 51% and 74% of fully open. The mean lifetime at the fully open level was about 1 ms; estimates for the three intermediate levels were 54-92 micros, probably still over-estimates.

Genetic and environmental influences on the size of specific brain regions in midlife: the VETSA MRI study.

PubMed

Kremen, William S; Prom-Wormley, Elizabeth; Panizzon, Matthew S; Eyler, Lisa T; Fischl, Bruce; Neale, Michael C; Franz, Carol E; Lyons, Michael J; Pacheco, Jennifer; Perry, Michele E; Stevens, Allison; Schmitt, J Eric; Grant, Michael D; Seidman, Larry J; Thermenos, Heidi W; Tsuang, Ming T; Eisen, Seth A; Dale, Anders M; Fennema-Notestine, Christine

2010-01-15

The impact of genetic and environmental factors on human brain structure is of great importance for understanding normative cognitive and brain aging as well as neuropsychiatric disorders. However, most studies of genetic and environmental influences on human brain structure have either focused on global measures or have had samples that were too small for reliable estimates. Using the classical twin design, we assessed genetic, shared environmental, and individual-specific environmental influences on individual differences in the size of 96 brain regions of interest (ROIs). Participants were 474 middle-aged male twins (202 pairs; 70 unpaired) in the Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging (VETSA). They were 51-59 years old, and were similar to U.S. men in their age range in terms of sociodemographic and health characteristics. We measured thickness of cortical ROIs and volume of other ROIs. On average, genetic influences accounted for approximately 70% of the variance in the volume of global, subcortical, and ventricular ROIs and approximately 45% of the variance in the thickness of cortical ROIs. There was greater variability in the heritability of cortical ROIs (0.00-0.75) as compared with subcortical and ventricular ROIs (0.48-0.85). The results did not indicate lateralized heritability differences or greater genetic influences on the size of regions underlying higher cognitive functions. The findings provide key information for imaging genetic studies and other studies of brain phenotypes and endophenotypes. Longitudinal analysis will be needed to determine whether the degree of genetic and environmental influences changes for different ROIs from midlife to later life.

Principal component and spatial correlation analysis of spectroscopic-imaging data in scanning probe microscopy.

PubMed

Jesse, Stephen; Kalinin, Sergei V

2009-02-25

An approach for the analysis of multi-dimensional, spectroscopic-imaging data based on principal component analysis (PCA) is explored. PCA selects and ranks relevant response components based on variance within the data. It is shown that for examples with small relative variations between spectra, the first few PCA components closely coincide with results obtained using model fitting, and this is achieved at rates approximately four orders of magnitude faster. For cases with strong response variations, PCA allows an effective approach to rapidly process, de-noise, and compress data. The prospects for PCA combined with correlation function analysis of component maps as a universal tool for data analysis and representation in microscopy are discussed.

Design of a compensation for an ARMA model of a discrete time system. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mainemer, C. I.

1978-01-01

The design of an optimal dynamic compensator for a multivariable discrete time system is studied. Also the design of compensators to achieve minimum variance control strategies for single input single output systems is analyzed. In the first problem the initial conditions of the plant are random variables with known first and second order moments, and the cost is the expected value of the standard cost, quadratic in the states and controls. The compensator is based on the minimum order Luenberger observer and it is found optimally by minimizing a performance index. Necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality of the compensator are derived. The second problem is solved in three different ways; two of them working directly in the frequency domain and one working in the time domain. The first and second order moments of the initial conditions are irrelevant to the solution. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the compensator to minimize the variance of the output.

Allan Variance Calculation for Nonuniformly Spaced Input Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

τ (tau). First, the set of gyro values is partitioned into bins of duration τ. For example, if the sampling duration τ is 2 sec and there are 4,000...Variance Calculation For each value of τ, the conventional AV calculation partitions the gyro data sets into bins with approximately τ / Δt...value of Δt. Therefore, a new way must be found to partition the gyro data sets into bins. The basic concept behind the modified AV calculation is

Synaptic shot noise and conductance fluctuations affect the membrane voltage with equal significance.

PubMed

Richardson, Magnus J E; Gerstner, Wulfram

2005-04-01

The subthreshold membrane voltage of a neuron in active cortical tissue is a fluctuating quantity with a distribution that reflects the firing statistics of the presynaptic population. It was recently found that conductance-based synaptic drive can lead to distributions with a significant skew. Here it is demonstrated that the underlying shot noise caused by Poissonian spike arrival also skews the membrane distribution, but in the opposite sense. Using a perturbative method, we analyze the effects of shot noise on the distribution of synaptic conductances and calculate the consequent voltage distribution. To first order in the perturbation theory, the voltage distribution is a gaussian modulated by a prefactor that captures the skew. The gaussian component is identical to distributions derived using current-based models with an effective membrane time constant. The well-known effective-time-constant approximation can therefore be identified as the leading-order solution to the full conductance-based model. The higher-order modulatory prefactor containing the skew comprises terms due to both shot noise and conductance fluctuations. The diffusion approximation misses these shot-noise effects implying that analytical approaches such as the Fokker-Planck equation or simulation with filtered white noise cannot be used to improve on the gaussian approximation. It is further demonstrated that quantities used for fitting theory to experiment, such as the voltage mean and variance, are robust against these non-Gaussian effects. The effective-time-constant approximation is therefore relevant to experiment and provides a simple analytic base on which other pertinent biological details may be added.

Robust approximation-free prescribed performance control for nonlinear systems and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruisheng; Na, Jing; Zhu, Bin

2018-02-01

This paper presents a robust prescribed performance control approach and its application to nonlinear tail-controlled missile systems with unknown dynamics and uncertainties. The idea of prescribed performance function (PPF) is incorporated into the control design, such that both the steady-state and transient control performance can be strictly guaranteed. Unlike conventional PPF-based control methods, we further tailor a recently proposed systematic control design procedure (i.e. approximation-free control) using the transformed tracking error dynamics, which provides a proportional-like control action. Hence, the function approximators (e.g. neural networks, fuzzy systems) that are widely used to address the unknown nonlinearities in the nonlinear control designs are not needed. The proposed control design leads to a robust yet simplified function approximation-free control for nonlinear systems. The closed-loop system stability and the control error convergence are all rigorously proved. Finally, comparative simulations are conducted based on nonlinear missile systems to validate the improved response and the robustness of the proposed control method.

Assessing the Effectiveness of a School-Based Dental Clinic on the Oral Health of Children Who Lack Access to Dental Care: A Program Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carpino, Rachel; Walker, Mary P.; Liu, Ying; Simmer-Beck, Melanie

2017-01-01

This program evaluation examines the effectiveness of a school-based dental clinic. A repeated-measures design was used to longitudinally examine secondary data from participants (N = 293). Encounter intensity was developed to normalize data. Multivariate analysis of variance and Kruskal-Wallis test were used to investigate the effect of encounter…

Linear and Order Statistics Combiners for Pattern Classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Kagan; Ghosh, Joydeep; Lau, Sonie (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Several researchers have experimentally shown that substantial improvements can be obtained in difficult pattern recognition problems by combining or integrating the outputs of multiple classifiers. This chapter provides an analytical framework to quantify the improvements in classification results due to combining. The results apply to both linear combiners and order statistics combiners. We first show that to a first order approximation, the error rate obtained over and above the Bayes error rate, is directly proportional to the variance of the actual decision boundaries around the Bayes optimum boundary. Combining classifiers in output space reduces this variance, and hence reduces the 'added' error. If N unbiased classifiers are combined by simple averaging. the added error rate can be reduced by a factor of N if the individual errors in approximating the decision boundaries are uncorrelated. Expressions are then derived for linear combiners which are biased or correlated, and the effect of output correlations on ensemble performance is quantified. For order statistics based non-linear combiners, we derive expressions that indicate how much the median, the maximum and in general the i-th order statistic can improve classifier performance. The analysis presented here facilitates the understanding of the relationships among error rates, classifier boundary distributions, and combining in output space. Experimental results on several public domain data sets are provided to illustrate the benefits of combining and to support the analytical results.

Trends in Elevated Triglyceride in Adults: United States, 2001-2012

MedlinePlus

... All variance estimates accounted for the complex survey design using Taylor series linearization ( 10 ). Percentage estimates for the total adult ... al. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey: Sample design, 2007–2010. ... KM. Taylor series methods. In: Introduction to variance estimation. 2nd ed. ...

The Variance of Intraclass Correlations in Three- and Four-Level Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedges, Larry V.; Hedberg, E. C.; Kuyper, Arend M.

2012-01-01

Intraclass correlations are used to summarize the variance decomposition in populations with multilevel hierarchical structure. There has recently been considerable interest in estimating intraclass correlations from surveys or designed experiments to provide design parameters for planning future large-scale randomized experiments. The large…

The Variance of Intraclass Correlations in Three and Four Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedges, Larry V.; Hedberg, Eric C.; Kuyper, Arend M.

2012-01-01

Intraclass correlations are used to summarize the variance decomposition in popula- tions with multilevel hierarchical structure. There has recently been considerable interest in estimating intraclass correlations from surveys or designed experiments to provide design parameters for planning future large-scale randomized experiments. The large…

Optimal decision making on the basis of evidence represented in spike trains.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiaxiang; Bogacz, Rafal

2010-05-01

Experimental data indicate that perceptual decision making involves integration of sensory evidence in certain cortical areas. Theoretical studies have proposed that the computation in neural decision circuits approximates statistically optimal decision procedures (e.g., sequential probability ratio test) that maximize the reward rate in sequential choice tasks. However, these previous studies assumed that the sensory evidence was represented by continuous values from gaussian distributions with the same variance across alternatives. In this article, we make a more realistic assumption that sensory evidence is represented in spike trains described by the Poisson processes, which naturally satisfy the mean-variance relationship observed in sensory neurons. We show that for such a representation, the neural circuits involving cortical integrators and basal ganglia can approximate the optimal decision procedures for two and multiple alternative choice tasks.

Use of portable exposure meters for comparing mobile phone base station radiation in different types of areas in the cities of Basel and Amsterdam.

PubMed

Urbinello, Damiano; Huss, Anke; Beekhuizen, Johan; Vermeulen, Roel; Röösli, Martin

2014-01-15

Radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) are highly variable and differ considerably within as well as between areas. Exposure assessment studies characterizing spatial and temporal variation are limited so far. Our objective was to evaluate sources of data variability and the repeatability of daily measurements using portable exposure meters (PEMs). Data were collected at 12 days between November 2010 and January 2011 with PEMs in four different types of urban areas in the cities of Basel (BSL) and Amsterdam (AMS). Exposure from mobile phone base stations ranged from 0.30 to 0.53 V/m in downtown and business areas and in residential areas from 0.09 to 0.41 V/m. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) demonstrated that measurements from various days were highly reproducible (measurement duration of approximately 30 min) with only 0.6% of the variance of all measurements from mobile phone base station radiation being explained by the measurement day and only 0.2% by the measurement time (morning, noon, afternoon), whereas type of area (30%) and city (50%) explained most of the data variability. We conclude that mobile monitoring of exposure from mobile phone base station radiation with PEMs is useful due to the high repeatability of mobile phone base station exposure levels, despite the high spatial variation. © 2013.

Optimal distribution of integration time for intensity measurements in degree of linear polarization polarimetry.

PubMed

Li, Xiaobo; Hu, Haofeng; Liu, Tiegen; Huang, Bingjing; Song, Zhanjie

2016-04-04

We consider the degree of linear polarization (DOLP) polarimetry system, which performs two intensity measurements at orthogonal polarization states to estimate DOLP. We show that if the total integration time of intensity measurements is fixed, the variance of the DOLP estimator depends on the distribution of integration time for two intensity measurements. Therefore, by optimizing the distribution of integration time, the variance of the DOLP estimator can be decreased. In this paper, we obtain the closed-form solution of the optimal distribution of integration time in an approximate way by employing Delta method and Lagrange multiplier method. According to the theoretical analyses and real-world experiments, it is shown that the variance of the DOLP estimator can be decreased for any value of DOLP. The method proposed in this paper can effectively decrease the measurement variance and thus statistically improve the measurement accuracy of the polarimetry system.

Inter-individual Differences in the Effects of Aircraft Noise on Sleep Fragmentation

PubMed Central

McGuire, Sarah; Müller, Uwe; Elmenhorst, Eva-Maria; Basner, Mathias

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: Environmental noise exposure disturbs sleep and impairs recuperation, and may contribute to the increased risk for (cardiovascular) disease. Noise policy and regulation are usually based on average responses despite potentially large inter-individual differences in the effects of traffic noise on sleep. In this analysis, we investigated what percentage of the total variance in noise-induced awakening reactions can be explained by stable inter-individual differences. Methods: We investigated 69 healthy subjects polysomnographically (mean ± standard deviation 40 ± 13 years, range 18–68 years, 32 male) in this randomized, balanced, double-blind, repeated measures laboratory study. This study included one adaptation night, 9 nights with exposure to 40, 80, or 120 road, rail, and/or air traffic noise events (including one noise-free control night), and one recovery night. Results: Mixed-effects models of variance controlling for reaction probability in noise-free control nights, age, sex, number of noise events, and study night showed that 40.5% of the total variance in awakening probability and 52.0% of the total variance in EEG arousal probability were explained by inter-individual differences. If the data set was restricted to nights (4 exposure nights with 80 noise events per night), 46.7% of the total variance in awakening probability and 57.9% of the total variance in EEG arousal probability were explained by inter-individual differences. The results thus demonstrate that, even in this relatively homogeneous, healthy, adult study population, a considerable amount of the variance observed in noise-induced sleep disturbance can be explained by inter-individual differences that cannot be explained by age, gender, or specific study design aspects. Conclusions: It will be important to identify those at higher risk for noise induced sleep disturbance. Furthermore, the custom to base noise policy and legislation on average responses should be re-assessed based on these findings. Citation: McGuire S, Müller U, Elmenhorst EM, Basner M. Inter-individual differences in the effects of aircraft noise on sleep fragmentation. SLEEP 2016;39(5):1107–1110. PMID:26856901

Instructional designing the STEM education model for fostering creative thinking abilities in physics laboratory environment classes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanthala, Chumpon; Santiboon, Toansakul; Ponkham, Kamon

2018-01-01

To investigate the effects of students' activity-based on learning approaching management through the STEM Education Instructional Model for fostering their creative thinking abilities of their learning achievements in physics laboratory classroom environments with the sample size consisted of 48 students at the 10th grade level in two classes in Mahasarakham University Demonstration School(Secondary Division) in Thailand. Students' creative thinking abilities were assessed with the with the 24-item GuilfordCreative Thinking Questionnaire (GCTQ). Students' perceptions of their physics classroom learning environments were obtained using the 35-item Physics Laboratory Environment Inventory (PLEI). Associations between students' learning achievements of their post-test assessment indicated that 26% of the coefficient predictive value (R2) of the variance in students' creative thinking abilities was attributable to their perceptions for the GCTQ. Students' learning outcomes of their post-test assessment, the R2value indicated that 35% of the variances for the PLEI, the R2value indicated that 63% of the variances for their creative thinking abilities were attributable to theiraffecting the activity-based on learning for fostering their creative thinking are provided.

Genetic variance estimation with imputed variants finds negligible missing heritability for human height and body mass index.

PubMed

Yang, Jian; Bakshi, Andrew; Zhu, Zhihong; Hemani, Gibran; Vinkhuyzen, Anna A E; Lee, Sang Hong; Robinson, Matthew R; Perry, John R B; Nolte, Ilja M; van Vliet-Ostaptchouk, Jana V; Snieder, Harold; Esko, Tonu; Milani, Lili; Mägi, Reedik; Metspalu, Andres; Hamsten, Anders; Magnusson, Patrik K E; Pedersen, Nancy L; Ingelsson, Erik; Soranzo, Nicole; Keller, Matthew C; Wray, Naomi R; Goddard, Michael E; Visscher, Peter M

2015-10-01

We propose a method (GREML-LDMS) to estimate heritability for human complex traits in unrelated individuals using whole-genome sequencing data. We demonstrate using simulations based on whole-genome sequencing data that ∼97% and ∼68% of variation at common and rare variants, respectively, can be captured by imputation. Using the GREML-LDMS method, we estimate from 44,126 unrelated individuals that all ∼17 million imputed variants explain 56% (standard error (s.e.) = 2.3%) of variance for height and 27% (s.e. = 2.5%) of variance for body mass index (BMI), and we find evidence that height- and BMI-associated variants have been under natural selection. Considering the imperfect tagging of imputation and potential overestimation of heritability from previous family-based studies, heritability is likely to be 60-70% for height and 30-40% for BMI. Therefore, the missing heritability is small for both traits. For further discovery of genes associated with complex traits, a study design with SNP arrays followed by imputation is more cost-effective than whole-genome sequencing at current prices.

Dynamic equilibrium of reconstituting hematopoietic stem cell populations.

PubMed

O'Quigley, John

2010-12-01

Clonal dominance in hematopoietic stem cell populations is an important question of interest but not one we can directly answer. Any estimates are based on indirect measurement. For marked populations, we can equate empirical and theoretical moments for binomial sampling, in particular we can use the well-known formula for the sampling variation of a binomial proportion. The empirical variance itself cannot always be reliably estimated and some caution is needed. We describe the difficulties here and identify ready solutions which only require appropriate use of variance-stabilizing transformations. From these we obtain estimators for the steady state, or dynamic equilibrium, of the number of hematopoietic stem cells involved in repopulating the marrow. The calculations themselves are not too involved. We give the distribution theory for the estimator as well as simple approximations for practical application. As an illustration, we rework on data recently gathered to address the question as to whether or not reconstitution of marrow grafts in the clinical setting might be considered to be oligoclonal.

Problems With Using Patient Retention in the Evaluation of Mental Health Providers: Differences in Type of Dropout.

PubMed

Brown, Halley J; Andreason, Hope; Melling, Amy K; Imel, Zac E; Simon, Gregory E

2015-08-01

Retention, or its opposite, dropout, is a common metric of psychotherapy quality, but using it to assess provider performance can be problematic. Differences among providers in numbers of general dropouts, "good" dropouts (patients report positive treatment experiences and outcome), and "bad" dropouts (patients report negative treatment experiences and outcome) were evaluated. Patient records were paired with satisfaction surveys (N=3,054). Binomial mixed-effects models were used to examine differences among providers by dropout type. Thirty-four percent of treatment episodes resulted in dropout. Of these, 14% were bad dropouts and 27% were good dropouts. Providers accounted for approximately 17% of the variance in general dropout and 10% of the variance in both bad dropout and good dropout. The ranking of providers fluctuated by type of dropout. Provider assessments based on patient retention should offer a way to isolate dropout type, given that nonspecific metrics may lead to biased estimates of performance.

Robustness of survival estimates for radio-marked animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunck, C.M.; Chen, C.-L.

1992-01-01

Telemetry techniques are often used to study the survival of birds and mammals; particularly whcn mark-recapture approaches are unsuitable. Both parametric and nonparametric methods to estimate survival have becn developed or modified from other applications. An implicit assumption in these approaches is that the probability of re-locating an animal with a functioning transmitter is one. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to determine the bias and variance of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and an estimator based also on the assumption of constant hazard and to eva!uate the performance of the two-sample tests associated with each. Modifications of each estimator which allow a re-Iocation probability of less than one are described and evaluated. Generallv the unmodified estimators were biased but had lower variance. At low sample sizes all estimators performed poorly. Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of all test statistics reasonably approximated the null distribution when survival was low but not when it was high. The power of the two-sample tests were similar.

Thermospheric mass density model error variance as a function of time scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmert, J. T.; Sutton, E. K.

2017-12-01

In the increasingly crowded low-Earth orbit environment, accurate estimation of orbit prediction uncertainties is essential for collision avoidance. Poor characterization of such uncertainty can result in unnecessary and costly avoidance maneuvers (false positives) or disregard of a collision risk (false negatives). Atmospheric drag is a major source of orbit prediction uncertainty, and is particularly challenging to account for because it exerts a cumulative influence on orbital trajectories and is therefore not amenable to representation by a single uncertainty parameter. To address this challenge, we examine the variance of measured accelerometer-derived and orbit-derived mass densities with respect to predictions by thermospheric empirical models, using the data-minus-model variance as a proxy for model uncertainty. Our analysis focuses mainly on the power spectrum of the residuals, and we construct an empirical model of the variance as a function of time scale (from 1 hour to 10 years), altitude, and solar activity. We find that the power spectral density approximately follows a power-law process but with an enhancement near the 27-day solar rotation period. The residual variance increases monotonically with altitude between 250 and 550 km. There are two components to the variance dependence on solar activity: one component is 180 degrees out of phase (largest variance at solar minimum), and the other component lags 2 years behind solar maximum (largest variance in the descending phase of the solar cycle).

Low-dimensional Representation of Error Covariance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Todling, Ricardo; Marchesin, Dan

2000-01-01

Ensemble and reduced-rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low-dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time-independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady-state analysis error covariance to admit a low-dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix, a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time-dependent systems. If much of the steady-state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting nonmodal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady-state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest-order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix.

Feasibility Study for Design of a Biocybernetic Communication System

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-08-01

electrode for the Within Words variance and Between Words variance for each of the 255 data samples in the 6-sec epoch. If a given sample point was not...contributing to the computer classification of the word, the ratio of the two variances (i.e., the F-statistic) should be small. On the other hand...if the Between Word variance was signifi- cantly higher than the Within Word variance for a given sample point, we can assume with some confidence

Finding missing heritability in less significant Loci and allelic heterogeneity: genetic variation in human height.

PubMed

Zhang, Ge; Karns, Rebekah; Sun, Guangyun; Indugula, Subba Rao; Cheng, Hong; Havas-Augustin, Dubravka; Novokmet, Natalija; Durakovic, Zijad; Missoni, Sasa; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Rudan, Pavao; Deka, Ranjan

2012-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many common variants associated with complex traits in human populations. Thus far, most reported variants have relatively small effects and explain only a small proportion of phenotypic variance, leading to the issues of 'missing' heritability and its explanation. Using height as an example, we examined two possible sources of missing heritability: first, variants with smaller effects whose associations with height failed to reach genome-wide significance and second, allelic heterogeneity due to the effects of multiple variants at a single locus. Using a novel analytical approach we examined allelic heterogeneity of height-associated loci selected from SNPs of different significance levels based on the summary data of the GIANT (stage 1) studies. In a sample of 1,304 individuals collected from an island population of the Adriatic coast of Croatia, we assessed the extent of height variance explained by incorporating the effects of less significant height loci and multiple effective SNPs at the same loci. Our results indicate that approximately half of the 118 loci that achieved stringent genome-wide significance (p-value<5×10(-8)) showed evidence of allelic heterogeneity. Additionally, including less significant loci (i.e., p-value<5×10(-4)) and accounting for effects of allelic heterogeneity substantially improved the variance explained in height.

Lifestyle Factors in U.S. Residential Electricity Consumption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanquist, Thomas F.; Orr, Heather M.; Shui, Bin

2012-03-30

A multivariate statistical approach to lifestyle analysis of residential electricity consumption is described and illustrated. Factor analysis of selected variables from the 2005 U.S. Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) identified five lifestyle factors reflecting social and behavioral choices associated with air conditioning, laundry usage, personal computer usage, climate zone of residence, and TV use. These factors were also estimated for 2001 RECS data. Multiple regression analysis using the lifestyle factors yields solutions accounting for approximately 40% of the variance in electricity consumption for both years. By adding the associated household and market characteristics of income, local electricity price and accessmore » to natural gas, variance accounted for is increased to approximately 54%. Income contributed only {approx}1% unique variance to the 2005 and 2001 models, indicating that lifestyle factors reflecting social and behavioral choices better account for consumption differences than income. This was not surprising given the 4-fold range of energy use at differing income levels. Geographic segmentation of factor scores is illustrated, and shows distinct clusters of consumption and lifestyle factors, particularly in suburban locations. The implications for tailored policy and planning interventions are discussed in relation to lifestyle issues.« less

Improved Horvitz-Thompson Estimation of Model Parameters from Two-phase Stratified Samples: Applications in Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Breslow, Norman E.; Lumley, Thomas; Ballantyne, Christie M; Chambless, Lloyd E.; Kulich, Michal

2009-01-01

The case-cohort study involves two-phase sampling: simple random sampling from an infinite super-population at phase one and stratified random sampling from a finite cohort at phase two. Standard analyses of case-cohort data involve solution of inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimating equations, with weights determined by the known phase two sampling fractions. The variance of parameter estimates in (semi)parametric models, including the Cox model, is the sum of two terms: (i) the model based variance of the usual estimates that would be calculated if full data were available for the entire cohort; and (ii) the design based variance from IPW estimation of the unknown cohort total of the efficient influence function (IF) contributions. This second variance component may be reduced by adjusting the sampling weights, either by calibration to known cohort totals of auxiliary variables correlated with the IF contributions or by their estimation using these same auxiliary variables. Both adjustment methods are implemented in the R survey package. We derive the limit laws of coefficients estimated using adjusted weights. The asymptotic results suggest practical methods for construction of auxiliary variables that are evaluated by simulation of case-cohort samples from the National Wilms Tumor Study and by log-linear modeling of case-cohort data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Although not semiparametric efficient, estimators based on adjusted weights may come close to achieving full efficiency within the class of augmented IPW estimators. PMID:20174455

Lateral Penumbra Modelling Based Leaf End Shape Optimization for Multileaf Collimator in Radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Zhou, Dong; Zhang, Hui; Ye, Peiqing

2016-01-01

Lateral penumbra of multileaf collimator plays an important role in radiotherapy treatment planning. Growing evidence has revealed that, for a single-focused multileaf collimator, lateral penumbra width is leaf position dependent and largely attributed to the leaf end shape. In our study, an analytical method for leaf end induced lateral penumbra modelling is formulated using Tangent Secant Theory. Compared with Monte Carlo simulation and ray tracing algorithm, our model serves well the purpose of cost-efficient penumbra evaluation. Leaf ends represented in parametric forms of circular arc, elliptical arc, Bézier curve, and B-spline are implemented. With biobjective function of penumbra mean and variance introduced, genetic algorithm is carried out for approximating the Pareto frontier. Results show that for circular arc leaf end objective function is convex and convergence to optimal solution is guaranteed using gradient based iterative method. It is found that optimal leaf end in the shape of Bézier curve achieves minimal standard deviation, while using B-spline minimum of penumbra mean is obtained. For treatment modalities in clinical application, optimized leaf ends are in close agreement with actual shapes. Taken together, the method that we propose can provide insight into leaf end shape design of multileaf collimator. PMID:27110274

Unbiased Estimates of Variance Components with Bootstrap Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brennan, Robert L.

2007-01-01

This article provides general procedures for obtaining unbiased estimates of variance components for any random-model balanced design under any bootstrap sampling plan, with the focus on designs of the type typically used in generalizability theory. The results reported here are particularly helpful when the bootstrap is used to estimate standard…

Maternal scaffolding behavior: links with parenting style and maternal education.

PubMed

Carr, Amanda; Pike, Alison

2012-03-01

The purpose of this study was to specify the relationship between positive and harsh parenting and maternal scaffolding behavior. A 2nd aim was to disentangle the effects of maternal education and parenting quality, and a 3rd aim was to test whether parenting quality mediated the association between maternal education and scaffolding practices. We examined associations between positive and harsh parenting practices and contingent and noncontingent tutoring strategies. Ninety-six mother-child dyads (49 boys, 47 girls) from working- and middle-class English families participated. Mothers reported on parenting quality at Time 1 when children were 5 years old and again approximately 5 years later at Time 2. Mother-child pairs were observed working together on a block design task at Time 2, and interactions were coded for contingent (contingent shifting) and noncontingent (fixed failure feedback) dimensions of maternal scaffolding behavior. Positive and harsh parenting accounted for variance in contingent behavior over and above maternal education, whereas only harsh parenting accounted for unique variance in noncontingent scaffolding practices. Our findings provide new evidence for a more differentiated model of the relation between general parenting quality and specific scaffolding behaviors. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

A rotor optimization using regression analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giansante, N.

1984-01-01

The design and development of helicopter rotors is subject to the many design variables and their interactions that effect rotor operation. Until recently, selection of rotor design variables to achieve specified rotor operational qualities has been a costly, time consuming, repetitive task. For the past several years, Kaman Aerospace Corporation has successfully applied multiple linear regression analysis, coupled with optimization and sensitivity procedures, in the analytical design of rotor systems. It is concluded that approximating equations can be developed rapidly for a multiplicity of objective and constraint functions and optimizations can be performed in a rapid and cost effective manner; the number and/or range of design variables can be increased by expanding the data base and developing approximating functions to reflect the expanded design space; the order of the approximating equations can be expanded easily to improve correlation between analyzer results and the approximating equations; gradients of the approximating equations can be calculated easily and these gradients are smooth functions reducing the risk of numerical problems in the optimization; the use of approximating functions allows the problem to be started easily and rapidly from various initial designs to enhance the probability of finding a global optimum; and the approximating equations are independent of the analysis or optimization codes used.

Combining global and local approximations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haftka, Raphael T.

1991-01-01

A method based on a linear approximation to a scaling factor, designated the 'global-local approximation' (GLA) method, is presented and shown capable of extending the range of usefulness of derivative-based approximations to a more refined model. The GLA approach refines the conventional scaling factor by means of a linearly varying, rather than constant, scaling factor. The capabilities of the method are demonstrated for a simple beam example with a crude and more refined FEM model.

Comparison of Response Surface and Kriging Models in the Multidisciplinary Design of an Aerospike Nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, Timothy W.

1998-01-01

The use of response surface models and kriging models are compared for approximating non-random, deterministic computer analyses. After discussing the traditional response surface approach for constructing polynomial models for approximation, kriging is presented as an alternative statistical-based approximation method for the design and analysis of computer experiments. Both approximation methods are applied to the multidisciplinary design and analysis of an aerospike nozzle which consists of a computational fluid dynamics model and a finite element analysis model. Error analysis of the response surface and kriging models is performed along with a graphical comparison of the approximations. Four optimization problems are formulated and solved using both approximation models. While neither approximation technique consistently outperforms the other in this example, the kriging models using only a constant for the underlying global model and a Gaussian correlation function perform as well as the second order polynomial response surface models.

Effects of field plot size on prediction accuracy of aboveground biomass in airborne laser scanning-assisted inventories in tropical rain forests of Tanzania.

PubMed

Mauya, Ernest William; Hansen, Endre Hofstad; Gobakken, Terje; Bollandsås, Ole Martin; Malimbwi, Rogers Ernest; Næsset, Erik

2015-12-01

Airborne laser scanning (ALS) has recently emerged as a promising tool to acquire auxiliary information for improving aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation in sample-based forest inventories. Under design-based and model-assisted inferential frameworks, the estimation relies on a model that relates the auxiliary ALS metrics to AGB estimated on ground plots. The size of the field plots has been identified as one source of model uncertainty because of the so-called boundary effects which increases with decreasing plot size. Recent research in tropical forests has aimed to quantify the boundary effects on model prediction accuracy, but evidence of the consequences for the final AGB estimates is lacking. In this study we analyzed the effect of field plot size on model prediction accuracy and its implication when used in a model-assisted inferential framework. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model improved as the plot size increased. The adjusted R 2 increased from 0.35 to 0.74 while the relative root mean square error decreased from 63.6 to 29.2%. Indicators of boundary effects were identified and confirmed to have significant effects on the model residuals. Variance estimates of model-assisted mean AGB relative to corresponding variance estimates of pure field-based AGB, decreased with increasing plot size in the range from 200 to 3000 m 2 . The variance ratio of field-based estimates relative to model-assisted variance ranged from 1.7 to 7.7. This study showed that the relative improvement in precision of AGB estimation when increasing field-plot size, was greater for an ALS-assisted inventory compared to that of a pure field-based inventory.

Repeat sample intraocular pressure variance in induced and naturally ocular hypertensive monkeys.

PubMed

Dawson, William W; Dawson, Judyth C; Hope, George M; Brooks, Dennis E; Percicot, Christine L

2005-12-01

To compare repeat-sample means variance of laser induced ocular hypertension (OH) in rhesus monkeys with the repeat-sample mean variance of natural OH in age-range matched monkeys of similar and dissimilar pedigrees. Multiple monocular, retrospective, intraocular pressure (IOP) measures were recorded repeatedly during a short sampling interval (SSI, 1-5 months) and a long sampling interval (LSI, 6-36 months). There were 5-13 eyes in each SSI and LSI subgroup. Each interval contained subgroups from the Florida with natural hypertension (NHT), induced hypertension (IHT1) Florida monkeys, unrelated (Strasbourg, France) induced hypertensives (IHT2), and Florida age-range matched controls (C). Repeat-sample individual variance means and related IOPs were analyzed by a parametric analysis of variance (ANOV) and results compared to non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis ANOV. As designed, all group intraocular pressure distributions were significantly different (P < or = 0.009) except for the two (Florida/Strasbourg) induced OH groups. A parametric 2 x 4 design ANOV for mean variance showed large significant effects due to treatment group and sampling interval. Similar results were produced by the nonparametric ANOV. Induced OH sample variance (LSI) was 43x the natural OH sample variance-mean. The same relationship for the SSI was 12x. Laser induced ocular hypertension in rhesus monkeys produces large IOP repeat-sample variance mean results compared to controls and natural OH.

Variance components estimation for continuous and discrete data, with emphasis on cross-classified sampling designs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Brian R.; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

2012-01-01

Variance components may play multiple roles (cf. Cox and Solomon 2003). First, magnitudes and relative magnitudes of the variances of random factors may have important scientific and management value in their own right. For example, variation in levels of invasive vegetation among and within lakes may suggest causal agents that operate at both spatial scales – a finding that may be important for scientific and management reasons. Second, variance components may also be of interest when they affect precision of means and covariate coefficients. For example, variation in the effect of water depth on the probability of aquatic plant presence in a study of multiple lakes may vary by lake. This variation will affect the precision of the average depth-presence association. Third, variance component estimates may be used when designing studies, including monitoring programs. For example, to estimate the numbers of years and of samples per year required to meet long-term monitoring goals, investigators need estimates of within and among-year variances. Other chapters in this volume (Chapters 7, 8, and 10) as well as extensive external literature outline a framework for applying estimates of variance components to the design of monitoring efforts. For example, a series of papers with an ecological monitoring theme examined the relative importance of multiple sources of variation, including variation in means among sites, years, and site-years, for the purposes of temporal trend detection and estimation (Larsen et al. 2004, and references therein).

Socio-Historical Factors Mediating Collaborative Teaching and Learning: A Design-Based Investigation and Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hackett, Jacob

2016-01-01

Collaborative (Co-)teaching is a complex instructional delivery model used to improve teaching practice in inclusive settings. The model involves multiple certified teachers--representing both special and general education--sharing the same space and presenting material to classrooms with a wide variance in learning needs. Co-teaching has become…

Preliminary Evaluation of Children's Psychosocial Rehabilitation for Youth with Serious Emotional Disturbance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Nathaniel J.

2009-01-01

Objective: This article introduces and evaluates children's psychosocial rehabilitation, a home- and community-based treatment for children with serious emotional disturbance. Method: In an open-trial design, the author used repeated-measures analysis of variance and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests to assess pre-post outcome ratings for 218…

Stratified Sampling Design Based on Data Mining

PubMed Central

Kim, Yeonkook J.; Oh, Yoonhwan; Park, Sunghoon; Cho, Sungzoon

2013-01-01

Objectives To explore classification rules based on data mining methodologies which are to be used in defining strata in stratified sampling of healthcare providers with improved sampling efficiency. Methods We performed k-means clustering to group providers with similar characteristics, then, constructed decision trees on cluster labels to generate stratification rules. We assessed the variance explained by the stratification proposed in this study and by conventional stratification to evaluate the performance of the sampling design. We constructed a study database from health insurance claims data and providers' profile data made available to this study by the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service of South Korea, and population data from Statistics Korea. From our database, we used the data for single specialty clinics or hospitals in two specialties, general surgery and ophthalmology, for the year 2011 in this study. Results Data mining resulted in five strata in general surgery with two stratification variables, the number of inpatients per specialist and population density of provider location, and five strata in ophthalmology with two stratification variables, the number of inpatients per specialist and number of beds. The percentages of variance in annual changes in the productivity of specialists explained by the stratification in general surgery and ophthalmology were 22% and 8%, respectively, whereas conventional stratification by the type of provider location and number of beds explained 2% and 0.2% of variance, respectively. Conclusions This study demonstrated that data mining methods can be used in designing efficient stratified sampling with variables readily available to the insurer and government; it offers an alternative to the existing stratification method that is widely used in healthcare provider surveys in South Korea. PMID:24175117

Investigating the two-moment characterisation of subcellular biochemical networks.

PubMed

Ullah, Mukhtar; Wolkenhauer, Olaf

2009-10-07

While ordinary differential equations (ODEs) form the conceptual framework for modelling many cellular processes, specific situations demand stochastic models to capture the influence of noise. The most common formulation of stochastic models for biochemical networks is the chemical master equation (CME). While stochastic simulations are a practical way to realise the CME, analytical approximations offer more insight into the influence of noise. Towards that end, the two-moment approximation (2MA) is a promising addition to the established analytical approaches including the chemical Langevin equation (CLE) and the related linear noise approximation (LNA). The 2MA approach directly tracks the mean and (co)variance which are coupled in general. This coupling is not obvious in CME and CLE and ignored by LNA and conventional ODE models. We extend previous derivations of 2MA by allowing (a) non-elementary reactions and (b) relative concentrations. Often, several elementary reactions are approximated by a single step. Furthermore, practical situations often require the use of relative concentrations. We investigate the applicability of the 2MA approach to the well-established fission yeast cell cycle model. Our analytical model reproduces the clustering of cycle times observed in experiments. This is explained through multiple resettings of M-phase promoting factor (MPF), caused by the coupling between mean and (co)variance, near the G2/M transition.

Evaluation of an employer-sponsored pedometer-based physical activity program.

PubMed

Behrens, Timothy K; Domina, Lorie; Fletcher, Gena M

2007-12-01

This study evaluated a competition-based employer-sponsored physical activity program using pedometers. City employees (N approximately 2,600) formed teams in groups of 10 persons (N = 640). The groups competed against each other over a 12-wk. period with the goal of attaining 10,000 steps per day, per person. Only teams with complete data were included in the formal evaluation. A repeated-measures analysis of variance indicated significant differences in team steps by week of the program, with post hoc comparisons indicating significant differences from baseline step counts evident during Weeks 6-8 but not at the end of the program. These data confirm that competition-based physical activity programs using pedometers may not be an effective means of increasing the long-term physical activity of employees.

Workforce Diversity: Monitoring Employment Trends in Public Organizations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guajardo, Salomon A.

1999-01-01

Presents the use of research designs that can be used by human resource specialists to evaluate and monitor work force diversity and minority employment. Compares results of Repeated Measure Analyses of Variance with One Within-subjects Factor design with Repeated Measure Analyses of Variance with One Within-subjects Factor by job category. (JOW)

Tracking control of a closed-chain five-bar robot with two degrees of freedom by integration of an approximation-based approach and mechanical design.

PubMed

Cheng, Long; Hou, Zeng-Guang; Tan, Min; Zhang, W J

2012-10-01

The trajectory tracking problem of a closed-chain five-bar robot is studied in this paper. Based on an error transformation function and the backstepping technique, an approximation-based tracking algorithm is proposed, which can guarantee the control performance of the robotic system in both the stable and transient phases. In particular, the overshoot, settling time, and final tracking error of the robotic system can be all adjusted by properly setting the parameters in the error transformation function. The radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is used to compensate the complicated nonlinear terms in the closed-loop dynamics of the robotic system. The approximation error of the RBFNN is only required to be bounded, which simplifies the initial "trail-and-error" configuration of the neural network. Illustrative examples are given to verify the theoretical analysis and illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Finally, it is also shown that the proposed approximation-based controller can be simplified by a smart mechanical design of the closed-chain robot, which demonstrates the promise of the integrated design and control philosophy.

Statistical power for detecting trends with applications to seabird monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Shyla A.

2003-01-01

Power analysis is helpful in defining goals for ecological monitoring and evaluating the performance of ongoing efforts. I examined detection standards proposed for population monitoring of seabirds using two programs (MONITOR and TRENDS) specially designed for power analysis of trend data. Neither program models within- and among-years components of variance explicitly and independently, thus an error term that incorporates both components is an essential input. Residual variation in seabird counts consisted of day-to-day variation within years and unexplained variation among years in approximately equal parts. The appropriate measure of error for power analysis is the standard error of estimation (S.E.est) from a regression of annual means against year. Replicate counts within years are helpful in minimizing S.E.est but should not be treated as independent samples for estimating power to detect trends. Other issues include a choice of assumptions about variance structure and selection of an exponential or linear model of population change. Seabird count data are characterized by strong correlations between S.D. and mean, thus a constant CV model is appropriate for power calculations. Time series were fit about equally well with exponential or linear models, but log transformation ensures equal variances over time, a basic assumption of regression analysis. Using sample data from seabird monitoring in Alaska, I computed the number of years required (with annual censusing) to detect trends of -1.4% per year (50% decline in 50 years) and -2.7% per year (50% decline in 25 years). At ??=0.05 and a desired power of 0.9, estimated study intervals ranged from 11 to 69 years depending on species, trend, software, and study design. Power to detect a negative trend of 6.7% per year (50% decline in 10 years) is suggested as an alternative standard for seabird monitoring that achieves a reasonable match between statistical and biological significance.

Simplified Estimation and Testing in Unbalanced Repeated Measures Designs.

PubMed

Spiess, Martin; Jordan, Pascal; Wendt, Mike

2018-05-07

In this paper we propose a simple estimator for unbalanced repeated measures design models where each unit is observed at least once in each cell of the experimental design. The estimator does not require a model of the error covariance structure. Thus, circularity of the error covariance matrix and estimation of correlation parameters and variances are not necessary. Together with a weak assumption about the reason for the varying number of observations, the proposed estimator and its variance estimator are unbiased. As an alternative to confidence intervals based on the normality assumption, a bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap technique is considered. We also propose the naive percentile bootstrap for Wald-type tests where the standard Wald test may break down when the number of observations is small relative to the number of parameters to be estimated. In a simulation study we illustrate the properties of the estimator and the bootstrap techniques to calculate confidence intervals and conduct hypothesis tests in small and large samples under normality and non-normality of the errors. The results imply that the simple estimator is only slightly less efficient than an estimator that correctly assumes a block structure of the error correlation matrix, a special case of which is an equi-correlation matrix. Application of the estimator and the bootstrap technique is illustrated using data from a task switch experiment based on an experimental within design with 32 cells and 33 participants.

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.

2006-01-01

The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. In this talk we will demonstrate an ozone hole parametric model. This model is based upon: 1) a new algorithm for estimating 61 and Br levels over Antarctica and 2) late-spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This parametric model explains 95% of the ozone hole area's variance. We use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur in approximately 2068. The ozone hole area will very slowly decline over the next 2 decades. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until approximately 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Kawa, S. Randolph; Montzka, Stephen A.; Schauffler, Sue

2006-01-01

The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. Herein we demonstrate an ozone hole parametric model. This model is based upon: 1) a new algorithm for estimating C1 and Br levels over Antarctica and 2) late-spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This parametric model explains 95% of the ozone hole area s variance. We use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur in approximately 2068. The ozone hole area will very slowly decline over the next 2 decades. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until approximately 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

Time-dependent Hartree-Fock approach to nuclear ``pasta'' at finite temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuetrumpf, B.; Klatt, M. A.; Iida, K.; Maruhn, J. A.; Mecke, K.; Reinhard, P.-G.

2013-05-01

We present simulations of neutron-rich matter at subnuclear densities, like supernova matter, with the time-dependent Hartree-Fock approximation at temperatures of several MeV. The initial state consists of α particles randomly distributed in space that have a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution in momentum space. Adding a neutron background initialized with Fermi distributed plane waves the calculations reflect a reasonable approximation of astrophysical matter. This matter evolves into spherical, rod-like, and slab-like shapes and mixtures thereof. The simulations employ a full Skyrme interaction in a periodic three-dimensional grid. By an improved morphological analysis based on Minkowski functionals, all eight pasta shapes can be uniquely identified by the sign of only two valuations, namely the Euler characteristic and the integral mean curvature. In addition, we propose the variance in the cell density distribution as a measure to distinguish pasta matter from uniform matter.

A more powerful test based on ratio distribution for retention noninferiority hypothesis.

PubMed

Deng, Ling; Chen, Gang

2013-03-11

Rothmann et al. ( 2003 ) proposed a method for the statistical inference of fraction retention noninferiority (NI) hypothesis. A fraction retention hypothesis is defined as a ratio of the new treatment effect verse the control effect in the context of a time to event endpoint. One of the major concerns using this method in the design of an NI trial is that with a limited sample size, the power of the study is usually very low. This makes an NI trial not applicable particularly when using time to event endpoint. To improve power, Wang et al. ( 2006 ) proposed a ratio test based on asymptotic normality theory. Under a strong assumption (equal variance of the NI test statistic under null and alternative hypotheses), the sample size using Wang's test was much smaller than that using Rothmann's test. However, in practice, the assumption of equal variance is generally questionable for an NI trial design. This assumption is removed in the ratio test proposed in this article, which is derived directly from a Cauchy-like ratio distribution. In addition, using this method, the fundamental assumption used in Rothmann's test, that the observed control effect is always positive, that is, the observed hazard ratio for placebo over the control is greater than 1, is no longer necessary. Without assuming equal variance under null and alternative hypotheses, the sample size required for an NI trial can be significantly reduced if using the proposed ratio test for a fraction retention NI hypothesis.

Design, validation, and use of an evaluation instrument for monitoring systemic reform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scantlebury, Kathryn; Boone, William; Butler Kahle, Jane; Fraser, Barry J.

2001-08-01

Over the past decade, state and national policymakers have promoted systemic reform as a way to achieve high-quality science education for all students. However, few instruments are available to measure changes in key dimensions relevant to systemic reform such as teaching practices, student attitudes, or home and peer support. Furthermore, Rasch methods of analysis are needed to permit valid comparison of different cohorts of students during different years of a reform effort. This article describes the design, development, validation, and use of an instrument that measures student attitudes and several environment dimensions (standards-based teaching, home support, and peer support) using a three-step process that incorporated expert opinion, factor analysis, and item response theory. The instrument was validated with over 8,000 science and mathematics students, taught by more than 1,000 teachers in over 200 schools as part of a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of Ohio's systemic reform initiative. When the new four-factor, 20-item questionnaire was used to explore the relative influence of the class, home, and peer environment on student achievement and attitudes, findings were remarkably consistent across 3 years and different units and methods of analysis. All three environments accounted for unique variance in student attitudes, but only the environment of the class accounted for unique variance in student achievement. However, the class environment (standards-based teaching practices) was the strongest independent predictor of both achievement and attitude, and appreciable amounts of the total variance in attitudes were common to the three environments.

Measuring the Utility of a Cyber Incident Mission Impact Assessment (CIMIA) Process for Mission Assurance

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

1.179 1 22 .289 POP-UP .000 1 22 .991 Tests the null hypothesis that the error variance of the dependent variable is equal across groups. a. Design ...POP-UP 2.104 1 22 .161 Tests the null hypothesis that the error variance of the dependent variable is equal across groups. a. Design : Intercept... design also limited the number of intended treatments. The experimental design originally was suppose to test all three adverse events that threaten

Variability of the Degassing Flux of 4He as an impact of 4He -Dating of Groundwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torgersen, T.

2009-12-01

4He dating of groundwater is often confounded by an external flux of 4He as the result of a crustal degassing. Estimates of this external flux have been made but what is the impact on estimates of the 4He groundwater age? The existing measures of the 4He flux across the Earth’s solid surface have been evaluated collectively. The time-and-area weighted arithmetic mean (standard deviation) of n=33 4He degassing fluxes is 3.32(±0.45) x 1010 4He atoms m-2s-1. The log normal mean of 271 measures of the flux into Precambrian shield lakes of Canada is 4.57 x 1010atoms 4He m-2s-1 with a variance of */3.9x. The log normal mean of measurements (n=33) of the crustal flux is 3.63 x 1010 4He m-2s-1 with a best estimate one sigma log normal error of */36x based on an assumption of symmetric error bars. (For comparison, the log normal mean heat flow is 62.2 mW m-2 with a log normal variance of */1.8x; the best estimate mean is 65±1.6 Wm-2, Polach et al., 1993). The variance of the continental flux is shown to increase with decreasing time scales (*/ ~106x at 0.5yr) and decreasing space scales (*/ ~106x at 1km) suggesting that the mechanisms of crustal helium transport and degassing contain a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. This best estimate of the mean and variance in the flux of 4He from continents remains approximately equivalent to the radiogenic production rate of 4He in the whole crust. The small degree of variance in the Canadian lake data (n=271), Precambrian terrain, suggests that it may represent a best approximation of “steady state” crustal degassing. Large scale vertical mass transport in continental crust is estimated as scaled values to be of the order 10-5 cm2s-1 for helium (over 2Byr and 40km vertically) vs. 10-2 cm2s-1 for heat. The mass transport rate requires not only release of 4He from the solid phase via fracturing or comminution but also an enhanced rate of mass transport facilitated by some degree of fluid advection (as has been suggested by metamorphic geology) and further imply a separation of heat and mass during transport.

The relationship between emotional intelligence and job stress in the faculty of medicine in Isfahan University of Medical Sciences

PubMed Central

YAMANI, NIKOO; SHAHABI, MARYAM; HAGHANI, FARIBA

2014-01-01

Introduction: health care professionals especially clinicians, undergo lots of job stress (JS). Emotional intelligence (EI) is among the variables that appear to be associated with stress. It is also included among the ways adopted by the individuals in order to resist JS in the workplace. Thus, this study aims to investigate the relationship between EI and JS in the faculty members of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences (IUMS). Methods: This was a correlational study performed on 202 faculty members of IUMS. The data was gathered through two valid and reliable questionnaires (Bradberry EI questionnaire and JS questionnaire), being analyzed by SPSS software using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient, t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and linear regression analysis (α=0.05). Results: 142 individuals (70.30%) filled out the questionnaires. 75% of the respondents were male and 98% were married. There was an inverse correlation between the total score of EI and the level of JS (r=-0.235, p=0.005). Moreover, among the factors of EI, self-awareness and self-management scores had significant inverse relationship with the level of JS. Linear regression analysis showed that the EI factors explained approximately 7% of the variance of JS levels of the teachers. Conclusions: Individuals with high EI have less JS. Since the EI can be taught, it can be expected that the JS of faculty members can be reduced through training them on emotional intelligence. Therefore, it is recommended that short-term training courses be scheduled and designed based on the concepts of EI for teachers, particularly clinicians. PMID:25512914

An Analysis of Variance Framework for Matrix Sampling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sirotnik, Kenneth

Significant cost savings can be achieved with the use of matrix sampling in estimating population parameters from psychometric data. The statistical design is intuitively simple, using the framework of the two-way classification analysis of variance technique. For example, the mean and variance are derived from the performance of a certain grade…

Estimation of genetic parameters and their sampling variances of quantitative traits in the type 2 modified augmented design

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We proposed a method to estimate the error variance among non-replicated genotypes, thus to estimate the genetic parameters by using replicated controls. We derived formulas to estimate sampling variances of the genetic parameters. Computer simulation indicated that the proposed methods of estimatin...

Suboptimal schemes for atmospheric data assimilation based on the Kalman filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Todling, Ricardo; Cohn, Stephen E.

1994-01-01

This work is directed toward approximating the evolution of forecast error covariances for data assimilation. The performance of different algorithms based on simplification of the standard Kalman filter (KF) is studied. These are suboptimal schemes (SOSs) when compared to the KF, which is optimal for linear problems with known statistics. The SOSs considered here are several versions of optimal interpolation (OI), a scheme for height error variance advection, and a simplified KF in which the full height error covariance is advected. To employ a methodology for exact comparison among these schemes, a linear environment is maintained, in which a beta-plane shallow-water model linearized about a constant zonal flow is chosen for the test-bed dynamics. The results show that constructing dynamically balanced forecast error covariances rather than using conventional geostrophically balanced ones is essential for successful performance of any SOS. A posteriori initialization of SOSs to compensate for model - data imbalance sometimes results in poor performance. Instead, properly constructed dynamically balanced forecast error covariances eliminate the need for initialization. When the SOSs studied here make use of dynamically balanced forecast error covariances, the difference among their performances progresses naturally from conventional OI to the KF. In fact, the results suggest that even modest enhancements of OI, such as including an approximate dynamical equation for height error variances while leaving height error correlation structure homogeneous, go a long way toward achieving the performance of the KF, provided that dynamically balanced cross-covariances are constructed and that model errors are accounted for properly. The results indicate that such enhancements are necessary if unconventional data are to have a positive impact.

Inference on periodicity of circadian time series.

PubMed

Costa, Maria J; Finkenstädt, Bärbel; Roche, Véronique; Lévi, Francis; Gould, Peter D; Foreman, Julia; Halliday, Karen; Hall, Anthony; Rand, David A

2013-09-01

Estimation of the period length of time-course data from cyclical biological processes, such as those driven by the circadian pacemaker, is crucial for inferring the properties of the biological clock found in many living organisms. We propose a methodology for period estimation based on spectrum resampling (SR) techniques. Simulation studies show that SR is superior and more robust to non-sinusoidal and noisy cycles than a currently used routine based on Fourier approximations. In addition, a simple fit to the oscillations using linear least squares is available, together with a non-parametric test for detecting changes in period length which allows for period estimates with different variances, as frequently encountered in practice. The proposed methods are motivated by and applied to various data examples from chronobiology.

Body fat distribution in the Finnish population: environmental determinants and predictive power for cardiovascular risk factor levels.

PubMed Central

Marti, B; Tuomilehto, J; Salomaa, V; Kartovaara, L; Korhonen, H J; Pietinen, P

1991-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to examine (1) whether health habits are associated with body fat distribution, as measured by the waist/hip girth ratio, and (2) to what extent environmental factors, including anthropometric characteristics, explain the variability in levels of cardiovascular risk factors. DESIGN--The study was a population based cross sectional survey, conducted in the spring of 1987 as a part of an international research project on cardiovascular epidemiology. SETTING--The survey was conducted in three geographical areas of eastern and south western Finland. SUBJECTS--2526 men and 2756 women aged 25-64 years took part in the study, corresponding to a survey participation rate of 82%. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--In men, waist/hip ratio showed stronger associations with exercise (Pearson's r = -0.24), resting heart rate (r = 0.10), alcohol consumption (r = 0.07), smoking (r = 0.05), and education (r = -0.23) than did body mass index. Jointly, exercise, resting heart rate, alcohol consumption, education, and age explained 18% of variance in male waist/hip ratio, but only 9% of variance in male body mass index. In women, environmental factors were more predictive for body mass index than for waist/hip ratio, with age and education being the strongest determinants. Waist/hip ratio and body mass index were approximately equally strong predictors of cardiovascular risk factor levels. The additional predictive power of waist/hip ratio over and above body mass index was tested in a hierarchical, stepwise regression. In this conservative type of analysis the increase in explained variance uniquely attributable to waist/hip ratio was 2-3% for female and 1-2% for male lipoprotein levels, and less than 0.5% for female and 0-2% for male blood pressure values. CONCLUSIONS--The distribution of abdominal obesity in Finland is significantly influenced by health habits and sociodemographic factors in both men and women. This in turn is obviously one reason for the relatively small "independent" effect of body fat distribution on cardiovascular risk factor levels. PMID:2072072

Particle rejuvenation of Rao-Blackwellized sequential Monte Carlo smoothers for conditionally linear and Gaussian models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Ngoc Minh; Corff, Sylvain Le; Moulines, Éric

2017-12-01

This paper focuses on sequential Monte Carlo approximations of smoothing distributions in conditionally linear and Gaussian state spaces. To reduce Monte Carlo variance of smoothers, it is typical in these models to use Rao-Blackwellization: particle approximation is used to sample sequences of hidden regimes while the Gaussian states are explicitly integrated conditional on the sequence of regimes and observations, using variants of the Kalman filter/smoother. The first successful attempt to use Rao-Blackwellization for smoothing extends the Bryson-Frazier smoother for Gaussian linear state space models using the generalized two-filter formula together with Kalman filters/smoothers. More recently, a forward-backward decomposition of smoothing distributions mimicking the Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother for the regimes combined with backward Kalman updates has been introduced. This paper investigates the benefit of introducing additional rejuvenation steps in all these algorithms to sample at each time instant new regimes conditional on the forward and backward particles. This defines particle-based approximations of the smoothing distributions whose support is not restricted to the set of particles sampled in the forward or backward filter. These procedures are applied to commodity markets which are described using a two-factor model based on the spot price and a convenience yield for crude oil data.

On the design of classifiers for crop inventories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heydorn, R. P.; Takacs, H. C.

1986-01-01

Crop proportion estimators that use classifications of satellite data to correct, in an additive way, a given estimate acquired from ground observations are discussed. A linear version of these estimators is optimal, in terms of minimum variance, when the regression of the ground observations onto the satellite observations in linear. When this regression is not linear, but the reverse regression (satellite observations onto ground observations) is linear, the estimator is suboptimal but still has certain appealing variance properties. In this paper expressions are derived for those regressions which relate the intercepts and slopes to conditional classification probabilities. These expressions are then used to discuss the question of classifier designs that can lead to low-variance crop proportion estimates. Variance expressions for these estimates in terms of classifier omission and commission errors are also derived.

Lightweight and Compostable Fiberboard for the Military

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

individual sheets with compression molding methods. The second approach examined different biodegradable coatings for paper formation which enhanced wet...strength properties of paper based products. The third approach identified effective coated corrugated alternatives that exhibited comparable...fiberboard containers to different environmental conditions. Analysis of variance of compression data as a function of moisture, insert design and paper

Grid-based sampling designs and area estimation

Treesearch

Joseph M. McCollum

2007-01-01

The author discusses some area and variance estimation methods that have been used by personnel of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Southern Research Station and its predecessors. The author also presents the methods of Horvitz and Thompson (1952), especially as they have been popularized by Stevens (1997), and shows how they could be used to produce...

The Effect of Interactive Technology on Informal Learning and Performance in a Social Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boileau, Timothy

2011-01-01

This study is based on a qualitative multiple case study research design using a mixed methods approach to provide insight into the effect of interactive technology on informal learning and performance in a social business setting inhabited by knowledge workers. The central phenomenon examined is the variance in behavioral intention towards…

One-Session Exposure Treatment for Social Anxiety with Specific Fear of Public Speaking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hindo, Cindy S.; Gonzalez-Prendes, A. Antonio

2011-01-01

Objectives: This pilot study evaluated the effectiveness of one-session, exposure-based therapy, to treat social anxiety disorder (SAD) with specific fear of public speaking. Methods: A quasi-experimental pre-posttest design with repeated measures-within-subject Analysis of Variance and paired sample t-tests was used to compare pretest, posttest…

Approximate Bayesian Computation by Subset Simulation using hierarchical state-space models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vakilzadeh, Majid K.; Huang, Yong; Beck, James L.; Abrahamsson, Thomas

2017-02-01

A new multi-level Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Approximate Bayesian Computation, ABC-SubSim, has recently appeared that exploits the Subset Simulation method for efficient rare-event simulation. ABC-SubSim adaptively creates a nested decreasing sequence of data-approximating regions in the output space that correspond to increasingly closer approximations of the observed output vector in this output space. At each level, multiple samples of the model parameter vector are generated by a component-wise Metropolis algorithm so that the predicted output corresponding to each parameter value falls in the current data-approximating region. Theoretically, if continued to the limit, the sequence of data-approximating regions would converge on to the observed output vector and the approximate posterior distributions, which are conditional on the data-approximation region, would become exact, but this is not practically feasible. In this paper we study the performance of the ABC-SubSim algorithm for Bayesian updating of the parameters of dynamical systems using a general hierarchical state-space model. We note that the ABC methodology gives an approximate posterior distribution that actually corresponds to an exact posterior where a uniformly distributed combined measurement and modeling error is added. We also note that ABC algorithms have a problem with learning the uncertain error variances in a stochastic state-space model and so we treat them as nuisance parameters and analytically integrate them out of the posterior distribution. In addition, the statistical efficiency of the original ABC-SubSim algorithm is improved by developing a novel strategy to regulate the proposal variance for the component-wise Metropolis algorithm at each level. We demonstrate that Self-regulated ABC-SubSim is well suited for Bayesian system identification by first applying it successfully to model updating of a two degree-of-freedom linear structure for three cases: globally, locally and un-identifiable model classes, and then to model updating of a two degree-of-freedom nonlinear structure with Duffing nonlinearities in its interstory force-deflection relationship.

Online Recorded Data-Based Composite Neural Control of Strict-Feedback Systems With Application to Hypersonic Flight Dynamics.

PubMed

Xu, Bin; Yang, Daipeng; Shi, Zhongke; Pan, Yongping; Chen, Badong; Sun, Fuchun

2017-09-25

This paper investigates the online recorded data-based composite neural control of uncertain strict-feedback systems using the backstepping framework. In each step of the virtual control design, neural network (NN) is employed for uncertainty approximation. In previous works, most designs are directly toward system stability ignoring the fact how the NN is working as an approximator. In this paper, to enhance the learning ability, a novel prediction error signal is constructed to provide additional correction information for NN weight update using online recorded data. In this way, the neural approximation precision is highly improved, and the convergence speed can be faster. Furthermore, the sliding mode differentiator is employed to approximate the derivative of the virtual control signal, and thus, the complex analysis of the backstepping design can be avoided. The closed-loop stability is rigorously established, and the boundedness of the tracking error can be guaranteed. Through simulation of hypersonic flight dynamics, the proposed approach exhibits better tracking performance.

The Genealogical Consequences of Fecundity Variance Polymorphism

PubMed Central

Taylor, Jesse E.

2009-01-01

The genealogical consequences of within-generation fecundity variance polymorphism are studied using coalescent processes structured by genetic backgrounds. I show that these processes have three distinctive features. The first is that the coalescent rates within backgrounds are not jointly proportional to the infinitesimal variance, but instead depend only on the frequencies and traits of genotypes containing each allele. Second, the coalescent processes at unlinked loci are correlated with the genealogy at the selected locus; i.e., fecundity variance polymorphism has a genomewide impact on genealogies. Third, in diploid models, there are infinitely many combinations of fecundity distributions that have the same diffusion approximation but distinct coalescent processes; i.e., in this class of models, ancestral processes and allele frequency dynamics are not in one-to-one correspondence. Similar properties are expected to hold in models that allow for heritable variation in other traits that affect the coalescent effective population size, such as sex ratio or fecundity and survival schedules. PMID:19433628

A hybrid (Monte Carlo/deterministic) approach for multi-dimensional radiation transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bal, Guillaume, E-mail: gb2030@columbia.edu; Davis, Anthony B., E-mail: Anthony.B.Davis@jpl.nasa.gov; Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, Kohn Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4030

2011-08-20

Highlights: {yields} We introduce a variance reduction scheme for Monte Carlo (MC) transport. {yields} The primary application is atmospheric remote sensing. {yields} The technique first solves the adjoint problem using a deterministic solver. {yields} Next, the adjoint solution is used as an importance function for the MC solver. {yields} The adjoint problem is solved quickly since it ignores the volume. - Abstract: A novel hybrid Monte Carlo transport scheme is demonstrated in a scene with solar illumination, scattering and absorbing 2D atmosphere, a textured reflecting mountain, and a small detector located in the sky (mounted on a satellite or amore » airplane). It uses a deterministic approximation of an adjoint transport solution to reduce variance, computed quickly by ignoring atmospheric interactions. This allows significant variance and computational cost reductions when the atmospheric scattering and absorption coefficient are small. When combined with an atmospheric photon-redirection scheme, significant variance reduction (equivalently acceleration) is achieved in the presence of atmospheric interactions.« less

Design of a Multi-Sensor Cooperation Travel Environment Perception System for Autonomous Vehicle

PubMed Central

Chen, Long; Li, Qingquan; Li, Ming; Zhang, Liang; Mao, Qingzhou

2012-01-01

This paper describes the environment perception system designed for intelligent vehicle SmartV-II, which won the 2010 Future Challenge. This system utilizes the cooperation of multiple lasers and cameras to realize several necessary functions of autonomous navigation: road curb detection, lane detection and traffic sign recognition. Multiple single scan lasers are integrated to detect the road curb based on Z-variance method. Vision based lane detection is realized by two scans method combining with image model. Haar-like feature based method is applied for traffic sign detection and SURF matching method is used for sign classification. The results of experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms and the whole system.

Three-Dimensional Field Solutions for Multi-Pole Cylindrical Halbach Arrays in an Axial Orientation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, William K.

2006-01-01

This article presents three-dimensional B field solutions for the cylindrical Halbach array in an axial orientation. This arrangement has applications in the design of axial motors and passive axial magnetic bearings and couplers. The analytical model described here assumes ideal magnets with fixed and uniform magnetization. The field component functions are expressed as sums of 2-D definite integrals that are easily computed by a number of mathematical analysis software packages. The analysis is verified with sample calculations and the results are compared to equivalent results from traditional finite-element analysis (FEA). The field solutions are then approximated for use in flux linkage and induced EMF calculations in nearby stator windings by expressing the field variance with angular displacement as pure sinusoidal function whose amplitude depends on radial and axial position. The primary advantage of numerical implementation of the analytical approach presented in the article is that it lends itself more readily to parametric analysis and design tradeoffs than traditional FEA models.

A compact holographic optical tweezers instrument

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, G. M.; Bowman, R. W.; Linnenberger, A.; Dienerowitz, M.; Phillips, D. B.; Carberry, D. M.; Miles, M. J.; Padgett, M. J.

2012-11-01

Holographic optical tweezers have found many applications including the construction of complex micron-scale 3D structures and the control of tools and probes for position, force, and viscosity measurement. We have developed a compact, stable, holographic optical tweezers instrument which can be easily transported and is compatible with a wide range of microscopy techniques, making it a valuable tool for collaborative research. The instrument measures approximately 30×30×35 cm and is designed around a custom inverted microscope, incorporating a fibre laser operating at 1070 nm. We designed the control software to be easily accessible for the non-specialist, and have further improved its ease of use with a multi-touch iPad interface. A high-speed camera allows multiple trapped objects to be tracked simultaneously. We demonstrate that the compact instrument is stable to 0.5 nm for a 10 s measurement time by plotting the Allan variance of the measured position of a trapped 2 μm silica bead. We also present a range of objects that have been successfully manipulated.

Save money by understanding variance and tolerancing.

PubMed

Stuart, K

2007-01-01

Manufacturing processes are inherently variable, which results in component and assembly variance. Unless process capability, variance and tolerancing are fully understood, incorrect design tolerances may be applied, which will lead to more expensive tooling, inflated production costs, high reject rates, product recalls and excessive warranty costs. A methodology is described for correctly allocating tolerances and performing appropriate analyses.

Robust Means Modeling: An Alternative for Hypothesis Testing of Independent Means under Variance Heterogeneity and Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fan, Weihua; Hancock, Gregory R.

2012-01-01

This study proposes robust means modeling (RMM) approaches for hypothesis testing of mean differences for between-subjects designs in order to control the biasing effects of nonnormality and variance inequality. Drawing from structural equation modeling (SEM), the RMM approaches make no assumption of variance homogeneity and employ robust…

Psychometric Evaluation of the Overexcitability Questionnaire-Two Applying Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling (BSEM) and Multiple-Group BSEM-Based Alignment with Approximate Measurement Invariance

PubMed Central

De Bondt, Niki; Van Petegem, Peter

2015-01-01

The Overexcitability Questionnaire-Two (OEQ-II) measures the degree and nature of overexcitability, which assists in determining the developmental potential of an individual according to Dabrowski's Theory of Positive Disintegration. Previous validation studies using frequentist confirmatory factor analysis, which postulates exact parameter constraints, led to model rejection and a long series of model modifications. Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) allows the application of zero-mean, small-variance priors for cross-loadings, residual covariances, and differences in measurement parameters across groups, better reflecting substantive theory and leading to better model fit and less overestimation of factor correlations. Our BSEM analysis with a sample of 516 students in higher education yields positive results regarding the factorial validity of the OEQ-II. Likewise, applying BSEM-based alignment with approximate measurement invariance, the absence of non-invariant factor loadings and intercepts across gender is supportive of the psychometric quality of the OEQ-II. Compared to males, females scored significantly higher on emotional and sensual overexcitability, and significantly lower on psychomotor overexcitability. PMID:26733931

Psychometric Evaluation of the Overexcitability Questionnaire-Two Applying Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling (BSEM) and Multiple-Group BSEM-Based Alignment with Approximate Measurement Invariance.

PubMed

De Bondt, Niki; Van Petegem, Peter

2015-01-01

The Overexcitability Questionnaire-Two (OEQ-II) measures the degree and nature of overexcitability, which assists in determining the developmental potential of an individual according to Dabrowski's Theory of Positive Disintegration. Previous validation studies using frequentist confirmatory factor analysis, which postulates exact parameter constraints, led to model rejection and a long series of model modifications. Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) allows the application of zero-mean, small-variance priors for cross-loadings, residual covariances, and differences in measurement parameters across groups, better reflecting substantive theory and leading to better model fit and less overestimation of factor correlations. Our BSEM analysis with a sample of 516 students in higher education yields positive results regarding the factorial validity of the OEQ-II. Likewise, applying BSEM-based alignment with approximate measurement invariance, the absence of non-invariant factor loadings and intercepts across gender is supportive of the psychometric quality of the OEQ-II. Compared to males, females scored significantly higher on emotional and sensual overexcitability, and significantly lower on psychomotor overexcitability.

Enhanced algorithms for stochastic programming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishna, Alamuru S.

1993-09-01

In this dissertation, we present some of the recent advances made in solving two-stage stochastic linear programming problems of large size and complexity. Decomposition and sampling are two fundamental components of techniques to solve stochastic optimization problems. We describe improvements to the current techniques in both these areas. We studied different ways of using importance sampling techniques in the context of Stochastic programming, by varying the choice of approximation functions used in this method. We have concluded that approximating the recourse function by a computationally inexpensive piecewise-linear function is highly efficient. This reduced the problem from finding the mean ofmore » a computationally expensive functions to finding that of a computationally inexpensive function. Then we implemented various variance reduction techniques to estimate the mean of a piecewise-linear function. This method achieved similar variance reductions in orders of magnitude less time than, when we directly applied variance-reduction techniques directly on the given problem. In solving a stochastic linear program, the expected value problem is usually solved before a stochastic solution and also to speed-up the algorithm by making use of the information obtained from the solution of the expected value problem. We have devised a new decomposition scheme to improve the convergence of this algorithm.« less

Renormalization Group Theory of Bolgiano Scaling in Boussinesq Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubinstein, Robert

1994-01-01

Bolgiano scaling in Boussinesq turbulence is analyzed using the Yakhot-Orszag renormalization group. For this purpose, an isotropic model is introduced. Scaling exponents are calculated by forcing the temperature equation so that the temperature variance flux is constant in the inertial range. Universal amplitudes associated with the scaling laws are computed by expanding about a logarithmic theory. Connections between this formalism and the direct interaction approximation are discussed. It is suggested that the Yakhot-Orszag theory yields a lowest order approximate solution of a regularized direct interaction approximation which can be corrected by a simple iterative procedure.

Event-Based Variance-Constrained ${\\mathcal {H}}_{\\infty }$ Filtering for Stochastic Parameter Systems Over Sensor Networks With Successive Missing Measurements.

PubMed

Wang, Licheng; Wang, Zidong; Han, Qing-Long; Wei, Guoliang

2018-03-01

This paper is concerned with the distributed filtering problem for a class of discrete time-varying stochastic parameter systems with error variance constraints over a sensor network where the sensor outputs are subject to successive missing measurements. The phenomenon of the successive missing measurements for each sensor is modeled via a sequence of mutually independent random variables obeying the Bernoulli binary distribution law. To reduce the frequency of unnecessary data transmission and alleviate the communication burden, an event-triggered mechanism is introduced for the sensor node such that only some vitally important data is transmitted to its neighboring sensors when specific events occur. The objective of the problem addressed is to design a time-varying filter such that both the requirements and the variance constraints are guaranteed over a given finite-horizon against the random parameter matrices, successive missing measurements, and stochastic noises. By recurring to stochastic analysis techniques, sufficient conditions are established to ensure the existence of the time-varying filters whose gain matrices are then explicitly characterized in term of the solutions to a series of recursive matrix inequalities. A numerical simulation example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the developed event-triggered distributed filter design strategy.

Using variance components to estimate power in a hierarchically nested sampling design improving monitoring of larval Devils Hole pupfish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dzul, Maria C.; Dixon, Philip M.; Quist, Michael C.; Dinsomore, Stephen J.; Bower, Michael R.; Wilson, Kevin P.; Gaines, D. Bailey

2013-01-01

We used variance components to assess allocation of sampling effort in a hierarchically nested sampling design for ongoing monitoring of early life history stages of the federally endangered Devils Hole pupfish (DHP) (Cyprinodon diabolis). Sampling design for larval DHP included surveys (5 days each spring 2007–2009), events, and plots. Each survey was comprised of three counting events, where DHP larvae on nine plots were counted plot by plot. Statistical analysis of larval abundance included three components: (1) evaluation of power from various sample size combinations, (2) comparison of power in fixed and random plot designs, and (3) assessment of yearly differences in the power of the survey. Results indicated that increasing the sample size at the lowest level of sampling represented the most realistic option to increase the survey's power, fixed plot designs had greater power than random plot designs, and the power of the larval survey varied by year. This study provides an example of how monitoring efforts may benefit from coupling variance components estimation with power analysis to assess sampling design.

LIFESPAN: A tool for the computer-aided design of longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; Ghisletta, Paolo; Hertzog, Christopher; Lindenberger, Ulman

2015-01-01

Researchers planning a longitudinal study typically search, more or less informally, a multivariate space of possible study designs that include dimensions such as the hypothesized true variance in change, indicator reliability, the number and spacing of measurement occasions, total study time, and sample size. The main search goal is to select a research design that best addresses the guiding questions and hypotheses of the planned study while heeding applicable external conditions and constraints, including time, money, feasibility, and ethical considerations. Because longitudinal study selection ultimately requires optimization under constraints, it is amenable to the general operating principles of optimization in computer-aided design. Based on power equivalence theory (MacCallum et al., 2010; von Oertzen, 2010), we propose a computational framework to promote more systematic searches within the study design space. Starting with an initial design, the proposed framework generates a set of alternative models with equal statistical power to detect hypothesized effects, and delineates trade-off relations among relevant parameters, such as total study time and the number of measurement occasions. We present LIFESPAN (Longitudinal Interactive Front End Study Planner), which implements this framework. LIFESPAN boosts the efficiency, breadth, and precision of the search for optimal longitudinal designs. Its initial version, which is freely available at http://www.brandmaier.de/lifespan, is geared toward the power to detect variance in change as specified in a linear latent growth curve model. PMID:25852596

Behavior of sensitivities in the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation: Implications for parameter estimation and sampling design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

1987-01-01

The spatial and temporal variability of sensitivities has a significant impact on parameter estimation and sampling design for studies of solute transport in porous media. Physical insight into the behavior of sensitivities is offered through an analysis of analytically derived sensitivities for the one-dimensional form of the advection-dispersion equation. When parameters are estimated in regression models of one-dimensional transport, the spatial and temporal variability in sensitivities influences variance and covariance of parameter estimates. Several principles account for the observed influence of sensitivities on parameter uncertainty. (1) Information about a physical parameter may be most accurately gained at points in space and time with a high sensitivity to the parameter. (2) As the distance of observation points from the upstream boundary increases, maximum sensitivity to velocity during passage of the solute front increases and the consequent estimate of velocity tends to have lower variance. (3) The frequency of sampling must be “in phase” with the S shape of the dispersion sensitivity curve to yield the most information on dispersion. (4) The sensitivity to the dispersion coefficient is usually at least an order of magnitude less than the sensitivity to velocity. (5) The assumed probability distribution of random error in observations of solute concentration determines the form of the sensitivities. (6) If variance in random error in observations is large, trends in sensitivities of observation points may be obscured by noise and thus have limited value in predicting variance in parameter estimates among designs. (7) Designs that minimize the variance of one parameter may not necessarily minimize the variance of other parameters. (8) The time and space interval over which an observation point is sensitive to a given parameter depends on the actual values of the parameters in the underlying physical system.

Some refinements on the comparison of areal sampling methods via simulation

Treesearch

Jeffrey Gove

2017-01-01

The design of forest inventories and development of new sampling methods useful in such inventories normally have a two-fold target of design unbiasedness and minimum variance in mind. Many considerations such as costs go into the choices of sampling method for operational and other levels of inventory. However, the variance in terms of meeting a specified level of...

Agreement and repeatability of vascular reactivity estimates based on a breath-hold task and a resting state scan.

PubMed

Lipp, Ilona; Murphy, Kevin; Caseras, Xavier; Wise, Richard G

2015-06-01

FMRI BOLD responses to changes in neural activity are influenced by the reactivity of the vasculature. By complementing a task-related BOLD acquisition with a vascular reactivity measure obtained through breath-holding or hypercapnia, this unwanted variance can be statistically reduced in the BOLD responses of interest. Recently, it has been suggested that vascular reactivity can also be estimated using a resting state scan. This study aimed to compare three breath-hold based analysis approaches (block design, sine-cosine regressor and CO2 regressor) and a resting state approach (CO2 regressor) to measure vascular reactivity. We tested BOLD variance explained by the model and repeatability of the measures. Fifteen healthy participants underwent a breath-hold task and a resting state scan with end-tidal CO2 being recorded during both. Vascular reactivity was defined as CO2-related BOLD percent signal change/mmHg change in CO2. Maps and regional vascular reactivity estimates showed high repeatability when the breath-hold task was used. Repeatability and variance explained by the CO2 trace regressor were lower for the resting state data based approach, which resulted in highly variable measures of vascular reactivity. We conclude that breath-hold based vascular reactivity estimations are more repeatable than resting-based estimates, and that there are limitations with replacing breath-hold scans by resting state scans for vascular reactivity assessment. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Agreement and repeatability of vascular reactivity estimates based on a breath-hold task and a resting state scan

PubMed Central

Lipp, Ilona; Murphy, Kevin; Caseras, Xavier; Wise, Richard G.

2015-01-01

FMRI BOLD responses to changes in neural activity are influenced by the reactivity of the vasculature. By complementing a task-related BOLD acquisition with a vascular reactivity measure obtained through breath-holding or hypercapnia, this unwanted variance can be statistically reduced in the BOLD responses of interest. Recently, it has been suggested that vascular reactivity can also be estimated using a resting state scan. This study aimed to compare three breath-hold based analysis approaches (block design, sine–cosine regressor and CO2 regressor) and a resting state approach (CO2 regressor) to measure vascular reactivity. We tested BOLD variance explained by the model and repeatability of the measures. Fifteen healthy participants underwent a breath-hold task and a resting state scan with end-tidal CO2 being recorded during both. Vascular reactivity was defined as CO2-related BOLD percent signal change/mm Hg change in CO2. Maps and regional vascular reactivity estimates showed high repeatability when the breath-hold task was used. Repeatability and variance explained by the CO2 trace regressor were lower for the resting state data based approach, which resulted in highly variable measures of vascular reactivity. We conclude that breath-hold based vascular reactivity estimations are more repeatable than resting-based estimates, and that there are limitations with replacing breath-hold scans by resting state scans for vascular reactivity assessment. PMID:25795342

Testing a linear time invariant model for skin conductance responses by intraneural recording and stimulation

PubMed Central

Gerster, Samuel; Namer, Barbara; Elam, Mikael

2017-01-01

Abstract Skin conductance responses (SCR) are increasingly analyzed with model‐based approaches that assume a linear and time‐invariant (LTI) mapping from sudomotor nerve (SN) activity to observed SCR. These LTI assumptions have previously been validated indirectly, by quantifying how much variance in SCR elicited by sensory stimulation is explained under an LTI model. This approach, however, collapses sources of variability in the nervous and effector organ systems. Here, we directly focus on the SN/SCR mapping by harnessing two invasive methods. In an intraneural recording experiment, we simultaneously track SN activity and SCR. This allows assessing the SN/SCR relationship but possibly suffers from interfering activity of non‐SN sympathetic fibers. In an intraneural stimulation experiment under regional anesthesia, such influences are removed. In this stimulation experiment, about 95% of SCR variance is explained under LTI assumptions when stimulation frequency is below 0.6 Hz. At higher frequencies, nonlinearities occur. In the intraneural recording experiment, explained SCR variance is lower, possibly indicating interference from non‐SN fibers, but higher than in our previous indirect tests. We conclude that LTI systems may not only be a useful approximation but in fact a rather accurate description of biophysical reality in the SN/SCR system, under conditions of low baseline activity and sporadic external stimuli. Intraneural stimulation under regional anesthesia is the most sensitive method to address this question. PMID:28862764

Stochastic Mixing Model with Power Law Decay of Variance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fedotov, S.; Ihme, M.; Pitsch, H.

2003-01-01

Here we present a simple stochastic mixing model based on the law of large numbers (LLN). The reason why the LLN is involved in our formulation of the mixing problem is that the random conserved scalar c = c(t,x(t)) appears to behave as a sample mean. It converges to the mean value mu, while the variance sigma(sup 2)(sub c) (t) decays approximately as t(exp -1). Since the variance of the scalar decays faster than a sample mean (typically is greater than unity), we will introduce some non-linear modifications into the corresponding pdf-equation. The main idea is to develop a robust model which is independent from restrictive assumptions about the shape of the pdf. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we derive the integral equation from a stochastic difference equation describing the evolution of the pdf of a passive scalar in time. The stochastic difference equation introduces an exchange rate gamma(sub n) which we model in a first step as a deterministic function. In a second step, we generalize gamma(sub n) as a stochastic variable taking fluctuations in the inhomogeneous environment into account. In Section 3 we solve the non-linear integral equation numerically and analyze the influence of the different parameters on the decay rate. The paper finishes with a conclusion.

Magnitude of pseudopotential localization errors in fixed node diffusion quantum Monte Carlo

DOE PAGES

Kent, Paul R.; Krogel, Jaron T.

2017-06-22

Growth in computational resources has lead to the application of real space diffusion quantum Monte Carlo to increasingly heavy elements. Although generally assumed to be small, we find that when using standard techniques, the pseudopotential localization error can be large, on the order of an electron volt for an isolated cerium atom. We formally show that the localization error can be reduced to zero with improvements to the Jastrow factor alone, and we define a metric of Jastrow sensitivity that may be useful in the design of pseudopotentials. We employ an extrapolation scheme to extract the bare fixed node energymore » and estimate the localization error in both the locality approximation and the T-moves schemes for the Ce atom in charge states 3+/4+. The locality approximation exhibits the lowest Jastrow sensitivity and generally smaller localization errors than T-moves although the locality approximation energy approaches the localization free limit from above/below for the 3+/4+ charge state. We find that energy minimized Jastrow factors including three-body electron-electron-ion terms are the most effective at reducing the localization error for both the locality approximation and T-moves for the case of the Ce atom. Less complex or variance minimized Jastrows are generally less effective. Finally, our results suggest that further improvements to Jastrow factors and trial wavefunction forms may be needed to reduce localization errors to chemical accuracy when medium core pseudopotentials are applied to heavy elements such as Ce.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kent, Paul R.; Krogel, Jaron T.

Growth in computational resources has lead to the application of real space diffusion quantum Monte Carlo to increasingly heavy elements. Although generally assumed to be small, we find that when using standard techniques, the pseudopotential localization error can be large, on the order of an electron volt for an isolated cerium atom. We formally show that the localization error can be reduced to zero with improvements to the Jastrow factor alone, and we define a metric of Jastrow sensitivity that may be useful in the design of pseudopotentials. We employ an extrapolation scheme to extract the bare fixed node energymore » and estimate the localization error in both the locality approximation and the T-moves schemes for the Ce atom in charge states 3+/4+. The locality approximation exhibits the lowest Jastrow sensitivity and generally smaller localization errors than T-moves although the locality approximation energy approaches the localization free limit from above/below for the 3+/4+ charge state. We find that energy minimized Jastrow factors including three-body electron-electron-ion terms are the most effective at reducing the localization error for both the locality approximation and T-moves for the case of the Ce atom. Less complex or variance minimized Jastrows are generally less effective. Finally, our results suggest that further improvements to Jastrow factors and trial wavefunction forms may be needed to reduce localization errors to chemical accuracy when medium core pseudopotentials are applied to heavy elements such as Ce.« less

Evaluation of Two Ionic Liquid-Based Epoxies from the MISSE-8 (Materials International Space Station Experiment-8) Sample Carrier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabenberg, Ellen; Kaukler, William; Grugel, Richard

2015-01-01

Two sets of epoxy mixtures, both containing the same ionic liquid (IL) based resin but utilizing two different curing agents, were evaluated after spending more than two years of continual space exposure outside of the International Space Station on the MISSE-8 sample rack. During this period the samples, positioned on nadir side, also experienced some 12,500 thermal cycles between approximately -40?C and +40 C. Initial examination showed some color change, a miniscule weight variance, and no cracks or de-bonding from the sample substrate. Microscopic examination of the surface reveled some slight deformities and pitting. These observations, and others, are discussed in view of the ground-based control samples. Finally, the impetus of this study in terms of space applications is presented.

Quasiparticle random phase approximation uncertainties and their correlations in the analysis of 0{nu}{beta}{beta} decay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faessler, Amand; Rodin, V.; Fogli, G. L.

2009-03-01

The variances and covariances associated to the nuclear matrix elements of neutrinoless double beta decay (0{nu}{beta}{beta}) are estimated within the quasiparticle random phase approximation. It is shown that correlated nuclear matrix elements uncertainties play an important role in the comparison of 0{nu}{beta}{beta} decay rates for different nuclei, and that they are degenerate with the uncertainty in the reconstructed Majorana neutrino mass.

Statistical design of quantitative mass spectrometry-based proteomic experiments.

PubMed

Oberg, Ann L; Vitek, Olga

2009-05-01

We review the fundamental principles of statistical experimental design, and their application to quantitative mass spectrometry-based proteomics. We focus on class comparison using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and discuss how randomization, replication and blocking help avoid systematic biases due to the experimental procedure, and help optimize our ability to detect true quantitative changes between groups. We also discuss the issues of pooling multiple biological specimens for a single mass analysis, and calculation of the number of replicates in a future study. When applicable, we emphasize the parallels between designing quantitative proteomic experiments and experiments with gene expression microarrays, and give examples from that area of research. We illustrate the discussion using theoretical considerations, and using real-data examples of profiling of disease.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging for Chance Constrained Remediation Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.

2012-12-01

Groundwater remediation designs are heavily relying on simulation models which are subjected to various sources of uncertainty in their predictions. To develop a robust remediation design, it is crucial to understand the effect of uncertainty sources. In this research, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) framework to segregate and prioritize sources of uncertainty in a multi-layer frame, where each layer targets a source of uncertainty. The HBMA framework provides an insight to uncertainty priorities and propagation. In addition, HBMA allows evaluating model weights in different hierarchy levels and assessing the relative importance of models in each level. To account for uncertainty, we employ a chance constrained (CC) programming for stochastic remediation design. Chance constrained programming was implemented traditionally to account for parameter uncertainty. Recently, many studies suggested that model structure uncertainty is not negligible compared to parameter uncertainty. Using chance constrained programming along with HBMA can provide a rigorous tool for groundwater remediation designs under uncertainty. In this research, the HBMA-CC was applied to a remediation design in a synthetic aquifer. The design was to develop a scavenger well approach to mitigate saltwater intrusion toward production wells. HBMA was employed to assess uncertainties from model structure, parameter estimation and kriging interpolation. An improved harmony search optimization method was used to find the optimal location of the scavenger well. We evaluated prediction variances of chloride concentration at the production wells through the HBMA framework. The results showed that choosing the single best model may lead to a significant error in evaluating prediction variances for two reasons. First, considering the single best model, variances that stem from uncertainty in the model structure will be ignored. Second, considering the best model with non-dominant model weight may underestimate or overestimate prediction variances by ignoring other plausible propositions. Chance constraints allow developing a remediation design with a desirable reliability. However, considering the single best model, the calculated reliability will be different from the desirable reliability. We calculated the reliability of the design for the models at different levels of HBMA. The results showed that by moving toward the top layers of HBMA, the calculated reliability converges to the chosen reliability. We employed the chance constrained optimization along with the HBMA framework to find the optimal location and pumpage for the scavenger well. The results showed that using models at different levels in the HBMA framework, the optimal location of the scavenger well remained the same, but the optimal extraction rate was altered. Thus, we concluded that the optimal pumping rate was sensitive to the prediction variance. Also, the prediction variance was changed by using different extraction rate. Using very high extraction rate will cause prediction variances of chloride concentration at the production wells to approach zero regardless of which HBMA models used.

Reliability based design optimization: Formulations and methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agarwal, Harish

Modern products ranging from simple components to complex systems should be designed to be optimal and reliable. The challenge of modern engineering is to ensure that manufacturing costs are reduced and design cycle times are minimized while achieving requirements for performance and reliability. If the market for the product is competitive, improved quality and reliability can generate very strong competitive advantages. Simulation based design plays an important role in designing almost any kind of automotive, aerospace, and consumer products under these competitive conditions. Single discipline simulations used for analysis are being coupled together to create complex coupled simulation tools. This investigation focuses on the development of efficient and robust methodologies for reliability based design optimization in a simulation based design environment. Original contributions of this research are the development of a novel efficient and robust unilevel methodology for reliability based design optimization, the development of an innovative decoupled reliability based design optimization methodology, the application of homotopy techniques in unilevel reliability based design optimization methodology, and the development of a new framework for reliability based design optimization under epistemic uncertainty. The unilevel methodology for reliability based design optimization is shown to be mathematically equivalent to the traditional nested formulation. Numerical test problems show that the unilevel methodology can reduce computational cost by at least 50% as compared to the nested approach. The decoupled reliability based design optimization methodology is an approximate technique to obtain consistent reliable designs at lesser computational expense. Test problems show that the methodology is computationally efficient compared to the nested approach. A framework for performing reliability based design optimization under epistemic uncertainty is also developed. A trust region managed sequential approximate optimization methodology is employed for this purpose. Results from numerical test studies indicate that the methodology can be used for performing design optimization under severe uncertainty.

Genetic and nonshared environmental factors affect the likelihood of being charged with driving under the influence (DUI) and driving while intoxicated (DWI).

PubMed

Beaver, Kevin M; Barnes, J C

2012-12-01

Driving under the influence (DUI) and driving while intoxicated (DWI) are related to a range of serious health, legal, and financial costs. Given the costs to society of DUIs and DWIs, there has been interest in identifying the causes of DUIs and DWIs. The current study added to this existing knowledge base by estimating genetic and environmental effects on DUIs and DWIs in a sample of twins drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). The results of the analyses revealed that genetic factors explained 53% of the variance in DUIs/DWIs and the nonshared environment explained 47% of the variance. Shared environmental factors explained none of the variance in DUIs/DWIs. We conclude with a discussion of the results, the limitations of the study, and how the findings might be compatible with policies designed to reduce DUIs and DWIs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design of clinical trials involving multiple hypothesis tests with a common control.

PubMed

Schou, I Manjula; Marschner, Ian C

2017-07-01

Randomized clinical trials comparing several treatments to a common control are often reported in the medical literature. For example, multiple experimental treatments may be compared with placebo, or in combination therapy trials, a combination therapy may be compared with each of its constituent monotherapies. Such trials are typically designed using a balanced approach in which equal numbers of individuals are randomized to each arm, however, this can result in an inefficient use of resources. We provide a unified framework and new theoretical results for optimal design of such single-control multiple-comparator studies. We consider variance optimal designs based on D-, A-, and E-optimality criteria, using a general model that allows for heteroscedasticity and a range of effect measures that include both continuous and binary outcomes. We demonstrate the sensitivity of these designs to the type of optimality criterion by showing that the optimal allocation ratios are systematically ordered according to the optimality criterion. Given this sensitivity to the optimality criterion, we argue that power optimality is a more suitable approach when designing clinical trials where testing is the objective. Weighted variance optimal designs are also discussed, which, like power optimal designs, allow the treatment difference to play a major role in determining allocation ratios. We illustrate our methods using two real clinical trial examples taken from the medical literature. Some recommendations on the use of optimal designs in single-control multiple-comparator trials are also provided. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A BASIS FOR MODIFYING THE TANK 12 COMPOSITE SAMPLING DESIGN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shine, G.

The SRR sampling campaign to obtain residual solids material from the Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank Farm Tank 12 primary vessel resulted in obtaining appreciable material in all 6 planned source samples from the mound strata but only in 5 of the 6 planned source samples from the floor stratum. Consequently, the design of the compositing scheme presented in the Tank 12 Sampling and Analysis Plan, Pavletich (2014a), must be revised. Analytical Development of SRNL statistically evaluated the sampling uncertainty associated with using various compositing arrays and splitting one or more samples for compositing. The variance of the simple meanmore » of composite sample concentrations is a reasonable standard to investigate the impact of the following sampling options. Composite Sample Design Option (a). Assign only 1 source sample from the floor stratum and 1 source sample from each of the mound strata to each of the composite samples. Each source sample contributes material to only 1 composite sample. Two source samples from the floor stratum would not be used. Composite Sample Design Option (b). Assign 2 source samples from the floor stratum and 1 source sample from each of the mound strata to each composite sample. This infers that one source sample from the floor must be used twice, with 2 composite samples sharing material from this particular source sample. All five source samples from the floor would be used. Composite Sample Design Option (c). Assign 3 source samples from the floor stratum and 1 source sample from each of the mound strata to each composite sample. This infers that several of the source samples from the floor stratum must be assigned to more than one composite sample. All 5 source samples from the floor would be used. Using fewer than 12 source samples will increase the sampling variability over that of the Basic Composite Sample Design, Pavletich (2013). Considering the impact to the variance of the simple mean of the composite sample concentrations, the recommendation is to construct each sample composite using four or five source samples. Although the variance using 5 source samples per composite sample (Composite Sample Design Option (c)) was slightly less than the variance using 4 source samples per composite sample (Composite Sample Design Option (b)), there is no practical difference between those variances. This does not consider that the measurement error variance, which is the same for all composite sample design options considered in this report, will further dilute any differences. Composite Sample Design Option (a) had the largest variance for the mean concentration in the three composite samples and should be avoided. These results are consistent with Pavletich (2014b) which utilizes a low elevation and a high elevation mound source sample and two floor source samples for each composite sample. Utilizing the four source samples per composite design, Pavletich (2014b) utilizes aliquots of Floor Sample 4 for two composite samples.« less

Dimensionality and noise in energy selective x-ray imaging

PubMed Central

Alvarez, Robert E.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To develop and test a method to quantify the effect of dimensionality on the noise in energy selective x-ray imaging. Methods: The Cramèr-Rao lower bound (CRLB), a universal lower limit of the covariance of any unbiased estimator, is used to quantify the noise. It is shown that increasing dimensionality always increases, or at best leaves the same, the variance. An analytic formula for the increase in variance in an energy selective x-ray system is derived. The formula is used to gain insight into the dependence of the increase in variance on the properties of the additional basis functions, the measurement noise covariance, and the source spectrum. The formula is also used with computer simulations to quantify the dependence of the additional variance on these factors. Simulated images of an object with three materials are used to demonstrate the trade-off of increased information with dimensionality and noise. The images are computed from energy selective data with a maximum likelihood estimator. Results: The increase in variance depends most importantly on the dimension and on the properties of the additional basis functions. With the attenuation coefficients of cortical bone, soft tissue, and adipose tissue as the basis functions, the increase in variance of the bone component from two to three dimensions is 1.4 × 103. With the soft tissue component, it is 2.7 × 104. If the attenuation coefficient of a high atomic number contrast agent is used as the third basis function, there is only a slight increase in the variance from two to three basis functions, 1.03 and 7.4 for the bone and soft tissue components, respectively. The changes in spectrum shape with beam hardening also have a substantial effect. They increase the variance by a factor of approximately 200 for the bone component and 220 for the soft tissue component as the soft tissue object thickness increases from 1 to 30 cm. Decreasing the energy resolution of the detectors increases the variance of the bone component markedly with three dimension processing, approximately a factor of 25 as the resolution decreases from 100 to 3 bins. The increase with two dimension processing for adipose tissue is a factor of two and with the contrast agent as the third material for two or three dimensions is also a factor of two for both components. The simulated images show that a maximum likelihood estimator can be used to process energy selective x-ray data to produce images with noise close to the CRLB. Conclusions: The method presented can be used to compute the effects of the object attenuation coefficients and the x-ray system properties on the relationship of dimensionality and noise in energy selective x-ray imaging systems. PMID:24320442

Uncertainty based pressure reconstruction from velocity measurement with generalized least squares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiacheng; Scalo, Carlo; Vlachos, Pavlos

2017-11-01

A method using generalized least squares reconstruction of instantaneous pressure field from velocity measurement and velocity uncertainty is introduced and applied to both planar and volumetric flow data. Pressure gradients are computed on a staggered grid from flow acceleration. The variance-covariance matrix of the pressure gradients is evaluated from the velocity uncertainty by approximating the pressure gradient error to a linear combination of velocity errors. An overdetermined system of linear equations which relates the pressure and the computed pressure gradients is formulated and then solved using generalized least squares with the variance-covariance matrix of the pressure gradients. By comparing the reconstructed pressure field against other methods such as solving the pressure Poisson equation, the omni-directional integration, and the ordinary least squares reconstruction, generalized least squares method is found to be more robust to the noise in velocity measurement. The improvement on pressure result becomes more remarkable when the velocity measurement becomes less accurate and more heteroscedastic. The uncertainty of the reconstructed pressure field is also quantified and compared across the different methods.

Mindfulness-based interventions with youth: A comprehensive meta-analysis of group-design studies.

PubMed

Klingbeil, David A; Renshaw, Tyler L; Willenbrink, Jessica B; Copek, Rebecca A; Chan, Kai Tai; Haddock, Aaron; Yassine, Jordan; Clifton, Jesse

2017-08-01

The treatment effects of Mindfulness-Based Interventions (MBIs) with youth were synthesized from 76 studies involving 6121 participants. A total of 885 effect sizes were aggregated using meta-regression with robust variance estimation. Overall, MBIs were associated with small treatment effects in studies using pre-post (g=0.305, SE=0.039) and controlled designs (g=0.322, SE=0.040). Treatment effects were measured after a follow-up period in 24 studies (n=1963). Results demonstrated that treatment effects were larger at follow-up than post-treatment in pre-post (g=0.462, SE=0.118) and controlled designs (g=0.402, SE=0.081). Moderator analyses indicated that intervention setting and intervention dosage were not meaningfully related to outcomes after controlling for study design quality. With that said, the between-study heterogeneity in the intercept-only models was consistently small, thus limiting the amount of variance for the moderators to explain. A series of exploratory analyses were used to investigate the differential effectiveness of MBIs across four therapeutic process domains and seven therapeutic outcome domains. Small, positive results were generally observed across the process and outcome domains. Notably, MBIs were associated with moderate effects on the process variable of mindfulness in controlled studies (n=1108, g=0.510). Limitations and directions for future research and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast content-based image retrieval using dynamic cluster tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jinyan; Sun, Jizhou; Wu, Rongteng; Zhang, Yaping

2008-03-01

A novel content-based image retrieval data structure is developed in present work. It can improve the searching efficiency significantly. All images are organized into a tree, in which every node is comprised of images with similar features. Images in a children node have more similarity (less variance) within themselves in relative to its parent. It means that every node is a cluster and each of its children nodes is a sub-cluster. Information contained in a node includes not only the number of images, but also the center and the variance of these images. Upon the addition of new images, the tree structure is capable of dynamically changing to ensure the minimization of total variance of the tree. Subsequently, a heuristic method has been designed to retrieve the information from this tree. Given a sample image, the probability of a tree node that contains the similar images is computed using the center of the node and its variance. If the probability is higher than a certain threshold, this node will be recursively checked to locate the similar images. So will its children nodes if their probability is also higher than that threshold. If no sufficient similar images were founded, a reduced threshold value would be adopted to initiate a new seeking from the root node. The search terminates when it found sufficient similar images or the threshold value is too low to give meaningful sense. Experiments have shown that the proposed dynamic cluster tree is able to improve the searching efficiency notably.

Hypothesis exploration with visualization of variance

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Consortium for Neuropsychiatric Phenomics (CNP) at UCLA was an investigation into the biological bases of traits such as memory and response inhibition phenotypes—to explore whether they are linked to syndromes including ADHD, Bipolar disorder, and Schizophrenia. An aim of the consortium was in moving from traditional categorical approaches for psychiatric syndromes towards more quantitative approaches based on large-scale analysis of the space of human variation. It represented an application of phenomics—wide-scale, systematic study of phenotypes—to neuropsychiatry research. Results This paper reports on a system for exploration of hypotheses in data obtained from the LA2K, LA3C, and LA5C studies in CNP. ViVA is a system for exploratory data analysis using novel mathematical models and methods for visualization of variance. An example of these methods is called VISOVA, a combination of visualization and analysis of variance, with the flavor of exploration associated with ANOVA in biomedical hypothesis generation. It permits visual identification of phenotype profiles—patterns of values across phenotypes—that characterize groups. Visualization enables screening and refinement of hypotheses about variance structure of sets of phenotypes. Conclusions The ViVA system was designed for exploration of neuropsychiatric hypotheses by interdisciplinary teams. Automated visualization in ViVA supports ‘natural selection’ on a pool of hypotheses, and permits deeper understanding of the statistical architecture of the data. Large-scale perspective of this kind could lead to better neuropsychiatric diagnostics. PMID:25097666

Preschoolers’ Delay of Gratification Predicts Their Body Mass 30 Years Later

PubMed Central

Schlam, Tanya R.; Wilson, Nicole L.; Shoda, Yuichi; Mischel, Walter; Ayduk, Ozlem

2012-01-01

Objective To assess whether preschoolers’ performance on a delay of gratification task would predict their body mass index (BMI) 30 years later. Study design In the late 1960s/early 1970s, 4-year-olds from a university-affiliated preschool completed the classic delay of gratification task. As part of a longitudinal study, a subset (N = 164, 57% women) completed a follow-up approximately 30 years later and self-reported their height and weight. Data were analyzed using hierarchical regression. Results Performance on the delay of gratification task accounted for a significant portion of variance in BMI (4%, p < .01), over and above the variance accounted for by sex alone (13%). Each additional minute a preschooler delayed gratification predicted a .2 point reduction in BMI in adulthood. Conclusions Delaying gratification longer at 4 years of age was associated with having a lower BMI three decades later. The study is, however, correlational, and it is therefore not possible to make causal inferences regarding the relation between delay duration and BMI. Identifying children with greater difficulty delaying gratification could help detect children at risk of becoming overweight or obese. Interventions that improve self-control in young children have been developed and might reduce children’s risk of becoming overweight while having positive effects on other outcomes important to society. PMID:22906511

76 FR 1145 - Alabama Power Company; Notice of Application for Amendment of License and Soliciting Comments...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-07

... drought-based temporary variance of the Martin Project rule curve and minimum flow releases at the Yates... requesting a drought- based temporary variance to the Martin Project rule curve. The rule curve variance...

Research on the Characteristics of Alzheimer's Disease Using EEG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueda, Taishi; Musha, Toshimitsu; Yagi, Tohru

In this paper, we proposed a new method for diagnosing Alzheimer's disease (AD) on the basis of electroencephalograms (EEG). The method, which is termed Power Variance Function (PVF) method, indicates the variance of the power at each frequency. By using the proposed method, the power of EEG at each frequency was calculated using Wavelet transform, and the corresponding variances were defined as PVF. After the PVF histogram of 55 healthy people was approximated as a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, we evaluated the PVF of 22 patients with AD and 25 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). As a result, the values for all AD and MCI subjects were abnormal. In particular, the PVF in the θ band for MCI patients was abnormally high, and the PVF in the α band for AD patients was low.

Design Effects and Generalized Variance Functions for the 1990-91 Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS). Volume II. Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salvucci, Sameena; And Others

This technical report provides the results of a study on the calculation and use of generalized variance functions (GVFs) and design effects for the 1990-91 Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS). The SASS is a periodic integrated system of sample surveys conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) that produces sampling variances…

The microcomputer scientific software series 3: general linear model--analysis of variance.

Treesearch

Harold M. Rauscher

1985-01-01

A BASIC language set of programs, designed for use on microcomputers, is presented. This set of programs will perform the analysis of variance for any statistical model describing either balanced or unbalanced designs. The program computes and displays the degrees of freedom, Type I sum of squares, and the mean square for the overall model, the error, and each factor...

Generating highly accurate prediction hypotheses through collaborative ensemble learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsov, Nino; Pavlovski, Martin; Basnarkov, Lasko; Kocarev, Ljupco

2017-03-01

Ensemble generation is a natural and convenient way of achieving better generalization performance of learning algorithms by gathering their predictive capabilities. Here, we nurture the idea of ensemble-based learning by combining bagging and boosting for the purpose of binary classification. Since the former improves stability through variance reduction, while the latter ameliorates overfitting, the outcome of a multi-model that combines both strives toward a comprehensive net-balancing of the bias-variance trade-off. To further improve this, we alter the bagged-boosting scheme by introducing collaboration between the multi-model’s constituent learners at various levels. This novel stability-guided classification scheme is delivered in two flavours: during or after the boosting process. Applied among a crowd of Gentle Boost ensembles, the ability of the two suggested algorithms to generalize is inspected by comparing them against Subbagging and Gentle Boost on various real-world datasets. In both cases, our models obtained a 40% generalization error decrease. But their true ability to capture details in data was revealed through their application for protein detection in texture analysis of gel electrophoresis images. They achieve improved performance of approximately 0.9773 AUROC when compared to the AUROC of 0.9574 obtained by an SVM based on recursive feature elimination.

MAP Reconstruction for Fourier Rebinned TOF-PET Data

PubMed Central

Bai, Bing; Lin, Yanguang; Zhu, Wentao; Ren, Ran; Li, Quanzheng; Dahlbom, Magnus; DiFilippo, Frank; Leahy, Richard M.

2014-01-01

Time-of-flight (TOF) information improves signal to noise ratio in Positron Emission Tomography (PET). Computation cost in processing TOF-PET sinograms is substantially higher than for nonTOF data because the data in each line of response is divided among multiple time of flight bins. This additional cost has motivated research into methods for rebinning TOF data into lower dimensional representations that exploit redundancies inherent in TOF data. We have previously developed approximate Fourier methods that rebin TOF data into either 3D nonTOF or 2D nonTOF formats. We refer to these methods respectively as FORET-3D and FORET-2D. Here we describe maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators for use with FORET rebinned data. We first derive approximate expressions for the variance of the rebinned data. We then use these results to rescale the data so that the variance and mean are approximately equal allowing us to use the Poisson likelihood model for MAP reconstruction. MAP reconstruction from these rebinned data uses a system matrix in which the detector response model accounts for the effects of rebinning. Using these methods we compare performance of FORET-2D and 3D with TOF and nonTOF reconstructions using phantom and clinical data. Our phantom results show a small loss in contrast recovery at matched noise levels using FORET compared to reconstruction from the original TOF data. Clinical examples show FORET images that are qualitatively similar to those obtained from the original TOF-PET data but a small increase in variance at matched resolution. Reconstruction time is reduced by a factor of 5 and 30 using FORET3D+MAP and FORET2D+MAP respectively compared to 3D TOF MAP, which makes these methods attractive for clinical applications. PMID:24504374

A Practical Methodology for Quantifying Random and Systematic Components of Unexplained Variance in a Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, Richard; Obara, Clifford J.; Goodman, Wesley L.

2012-01-01

This paper documents a check standard wind tunnel test conducted in the Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel (0.3M TCT) that was designed and analyzed using the Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE). The test designed to partition the unexplained variance of typical wind tunnel data samples into two constituent components, one attributable to ordinary random error, and one attributable to systematic error induced by covariate effects. Covariate effects in wind tunnel testing are discussed, with examples. The impact of systematic (non-random) unexplained variance on the statistical independence of sequential measurements is reviewed. The corresponding correlation among experimental errors is discussed, as is the impact of such correlation on experimental results generally. The specific experiment documented herein was organized as a formal test for the presence of unexplained variance in representative samples of wind tunnel data, in order to quantify the frequency with which such systematic error was detected, and its magnitude relative to ordinary random error. Levels of systematic and random error reported here are representative of those quantified in other facilities, as cited in the references.

A comparison of accuracy validation methods for genomic and pedigree-based predictions of swine litter size traits using Large White and simulated data.

PubMed

Putz, A M; Tiezzi, F; Maltecca, C; Gray, K A; Knauer, M T

2018-02-01

The objective of this study was to compare and determine the optimal validation method when comparing accuracy from single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP) to traditional pedigree-based BLUP. Field data included six litter size traits. Simulated data included ten replicates designed to mimic the field data in order to determine the method that was closest to the true accuracy. Data were split into training and validation sets. The methods used were as follows: (i) theoretical accuracy derived from the prediction error variance (PEV) of the direct inverse (iLHS), (ii) approximated accuracies from the accf90(GS) program in the BLUPF90 family of programs (Approx), (iii) correlation between predictions and the single-step GEBVs from the full data set (GEBV Full ), (iv) correlation between predictions and the corrected phenotypes of females from the full data set (Y c ), (v) correlation from method iv divided by the square root of the heritability (Y ch ) and (vi) correlation between sire predictions and the average of their daughters' corrected phenotypes (Y cs ). Accuracies from iLHS increased from 0.27 to 0.37 (37%) in the Large White. Approximation accuracies were very consistent and close in absolute value (0.41 to 0.43). Both iLHS and Approx were much less variable than the corrected phenotype methods (ranging from 0.04 to 0.27). On average, simulated data showed an increase in accuracy from 0.34 to 0.44 (29%) using ssGBLUP. Both iLHS and Y ch approximated the increase well, 0.30 to 0.46 and 0.36 to 0.45, respectively. GEBV Full performed poorly in both data sets and is not recommended. Results suggest that for within-breed selection, theoretical accuracy using PEV was consistent and accurate. When direct inversion is infeasible to get the PEV, correlating predictions to the corrected phenotypes divided by the square root of heritability is adequate given a large enough validation data set. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

A VLBI variance-covariance analysis interactive computer program. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bock, Y.

1980-01-01

An interactive computer program (in FORTRAN) for the variance covariance analysis of VLBI experiments is presented for use in experiment planning, simulation studies and optimal design problems. The interactive mode is especially suited to these types of analyses providing ease of operation as well as savings in time and cost. The geodetic parameters include baseline vector parameters and variations in polar motion and Earth rotation. A discussion of the theroy on which the program is based provides an overview of the VLBI process emphasizing the areas of interest to geodesy. Special emphasis is placed on the problem of determining correlations between simultaneous observations from a network of stations. A model suitable for covariance analyses is presented. Suggestions towards developing optimal observation schedules are included.

Signal to noise ratio of energy selective x-ray photon counting systems with pileup.

PubMed

Alvarez, Robert E

2014-11-01

To derive fundamental limits on the effect of pulse pileup and quantum noise in photon counting detectors on the signal to noise ratio (SNR) and noise variance of energy selective x-ray imaging systems. An idealized model of the response of counting detectors to pulse pileup is used. The model assumes a nonparalyzable response and delta function pulse shape. The model is used to derive analytical formulas for the noise and energy spectrum of the recorded photons with pulse pileup. These formulas are first verified with a Monte Carlo simulation. They are then used with a method introduced in a previous paper [R. E. Alvarez, "Near optimal energy selective x-ray imaging system performance with simple detectors," Med. Phys. 37, 822-841 (2010)] to compare the signal to noise ratio with pileup to the ideal SNR with perfect energy resolution. Detectors studied include photon counting detectors with pulse height analysis (PHA), detectors that simultaneously measure the number of photons and the integrated energy (NQ detector), and conventional energy integrating and photon counting detectors. The increase in the A-vector variance with dead time is also computed and compared to the Monte Carlo results. A formula for the covariance of the NQ detector is developed. The validity of the constant covariance approximation to the Cramèr-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for larger counts is tested. The SNR becomes smaller than the conventional energy integrating detector (Q) SNR for 0.52, 0.65, and 0.78 expected number photons per dead time for counting (N), two, and four bin PHA detectors, respectively. The NQ detector SNR is always larger than the N and Q SNR but only marginally so for larger dead times. Its noise variance increases by a factor of approximately 3 and 5 for the A1 and A2 components as the dead time parameter increases from 0 to 0.8 photons per dead time. With four bin PHA data, the increase in variance is approximately 2 and 4 times. The constant covariance approximation to the CRLB is valid for larger counts such as those used in medical imaging. The SNR decreases rapidly as dead time increases. This decrease places stringent limits on allowable dead times with the high count rates required for medical imaging systems. The probability distribution of the idealized data with pileup is shown to be accurately described as a multivariate normal for expected counts greater than those typically utilized in medical imaging systems. The constant covariance approximation to the CRLB is also shown to be valid in this case. A new formula for the covariance of the NQ detector with pileup is derived and validated.

Signal to noise ratio of energy selective x-ray photon counting systems with pileup

PubMed Central

Alvarez, Robert E.

2014-01-01

Purpose: To derive fundamental limits on the effect of pulse pileup and quantum noise in photon counting detectors on the signal to noise ratio (SNR) and noise variance of energy selective x-ray imaging systems. Methods: An idealized model of the response of counting detectors to pulse pileup is used. The model assumes a nonparalyzable response and delta function pulse shape. The model is used to derive analytical formulas for the noise and energy spectrum of the recorded photons with pulse pileup. These formulas are first verified with a Monte Carlo simulation. They are then used with a method introduced in a previous paper [R. E. Alvarez, “Near optimal energy selective x-ray imaging system performance with simple detectors,” Med. Phys. 37, 822–841 (2010)] to compare the signal to noise ratio with pileup to the ideal SNR with perfect energy resolution. Detectors studied include photon counting detectors with pulse height analysis (PHA), detectors that simultaneously measure the number of photons and the integrated energy (NQ detector), and conventional energy integrating and photon counting detectors. The increase in the A-vector variance with dead time is also computed and compared to the Monte Carlo results. A formula for the covariance of the NQ detector is developed. The validity of the constant covariance approximation to the Cramèr–Rao lower bound (CRLB) for larger counts is tested. Results: The SNR becomes smaller than the conventional energy integrating detector (Q) SNR for 0.52, 0.65, and 0.78 expected number photons per dead time for counting (N), two, and four bin PHA detectors, respectively. The NQ detector SNR is always larger than the N and Q SNR but only marginally so for larger dead times. Its noise variance increases by a factor of approximately 3 and 5 for the A1 and A2 components as the dead time parameter increases from 0 to 0.8 photons per dead time. With four bin PHA data, the increase in variance is approximately 2 and 4 times. The constant covariance approximation to the CRLB is valid for larger counts such as those used in medical imaging. Conclusions: The SNR decreases rapidly as dead time increases. This decrease places stringent limits on allowable dead times with the high count rates required for medical imaging systems. The probability distribution of the idealized data with pileup is shown to be accurately described as a multivariate normal for expected counts greater than those typically utilized in medical imaging systems. The constant covariance approximation to the CRLB is also shown to be valid in this case. A new formula for the covariance of the NQ detector with pileup is derived and validated. PMID:25370642

Multiobjective robust design of the double wishbone suspension system based on particle swarm optimization.

PubMed

Cheng, Xianfu; Lin, Yuqun

2014-01-01

The performance of the suspension system is one of the most important factors in the vehicle design. For the double wishbone suspension system, the conventional deterministic optimization does not consider any deviations of design parameters, so design sensitivity analysis and robust optimization design are proposed. In this study, the design parameters of the robust optimization are the positions of the key points, and the random factors are the uncertainties in manufacturing. A simplified model of the double wishbone suspension is established by software ADAMS. The sensitivity analysis is utilized to determine main design variables. Then, the simulation experiment is arranged and the Latin hypercube design is adopted to find the initial points. The Kriging model is employed for fitting the mean and variance of the quality characteristics according to the simulation results. Further, a particle swarm optimization method based on simple PSO is applied and the tradeoff between the mean and deviation of performance is made to solve the robust optimization problem of the double wishbone suspension system.

Multi-species attributes as the condition for adaptive sampling of rare species using two-stage sequential sampling with an auxiliary variable

USGS Publications Warehouse

Panahbehagh, B.; Smith, D.R.; Salehi, M.M.; Hornbach, D.J.; Brown, D.J.; Chan, F.; Marinova, D.; Anderssen, R.S.

2011-01-01

Assessing populations of rare species is challenging because of the large effort required to locate patches of occupied habitat and achieve precise estimates of density and abundance. The presence of a rare species has been shown to be correlated with presence or abundance of more common species. Thus, ecological community richness or abundance can be used to inform sampling of rare species. Adaptive sampling designs have been developed specifically for rare and clustered populations and have been applied to a wide range of rare species. However, adaptive sampling can be logistically challenging, in part, because variation in final sample size introduces uncertainty in survey planning. Two-stage sequential sampling (TSS), a recently developed design, allows for adaptive sampling, but avoids edge units and has an upper bound on final sample size. In this paper we present an extension of two-stage sequential sampling that incorporates an auxiliary variable (TSSAV), such as community attributes, as the condition for adaptive sampling. We develop a set of simulations to approximate sampling of endangered freshwater mussels to evaluate the performance of the TSSAV design. The performance measures that we are interested in are efficiency and probability of sampling a unit occupied by the rare species. Efficiency measures the precision of population estimate from the TSSAV design relative to a standard design, such as simple random sampling (SRS). The simulations indicate that the density and distribution of the auxiliary population is the most important determinant of the performance of the TSSAV design. Of the design factors, such as sample size, the fraction of the primary units sampled was most important. For the best scenarios, the odds of sampling the rare species was approximately 1.5 times higher for TSSAV compared to SRS and efficiency was as high as 2 (i.e., variance from TSSAV was half that of SRS). We have found that design performance, especially for adaptive designs, is often case-specific. Efficiency of adaptive designs is especially sensitive to spatial distribution. We recommend that simulations tailored to the application of interest are highly useful for evaluating designs in preparation for sampling rare and clustered populations.

Prediction of Self-Management Behavior among Iranian Women with Type 2 Diabetes: Application of the Theory of Reasoned Action along with Self-Efficacy (ETRA).

PubMed

Didarloo, A R; Shojaeizadeh, D; Gharaaghaji Asl, R; Habibzadeh, H; Niknami, Sh; Pourali, R

2012-02-01

Continuous performing of diabetes self-care behaviors was shown to be an effective strategy to control diabetes and to prevent or reduce its- related complications. This study aimed to investigate predictors of self-care behavior based on the extended theory of reasoned action by self efficacy (ETRA) among women with type 2 diabetes in Iran. A sample of 352 women with type 2 diabetes, referring to a Diabetes Clinic in Khoy, Iran using the nonprobability sampling was enrolled. Appropriate instruments were designed to measure the variables of interest (diabetes knowledge, personal beliefs, subjective norm, self-efficacy and behavioral intention along with self- care behaviors). Reliability and validity of the instruments using Cronbach's alpha coefficients (the values of them were more than 0.70) and a panel of experts were tested. A statistical significant correlation existed between independent constructs of proposed model and modelrelated dependent constructs, as ETRA model along with its related external factors explained 41.5% of variance of intentions and 25.3% of variance of actual behavior. Among constructs of model, self-efficacy was the strongest predictor of intentions among women with type 2 diabetes, as it lonely explained 31.3% of variance of intentions and 11.4% of variance of self-care behavior. The high ability of the extended theory of reasoned action with self-efficacy in forecasting and explaining diabetes mellitus self management can be a base for educational intervention. So to improve diabetes self management behavior and to control the disease, use of educational interventions based on proposed model is suggested.

An interplanetary magnetic field ensemble at 1 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthaeus, W. H.; Goldstein, M. L.; King, J. H.

1985-01-01

A method for calculation ensemble averages from magnetic field data is described. A data set comprising approximately 16 months of nearly continuous ISEE-3 magnetic field data is used in this study. Individual subintervals of this data, ranging from 15 hours to 15.6 days comprise the ensemble. The sole condition for including each subinterval in the averages is the degree to which it represents a weakly time-stationary process. Averages obtained by this method are appropriate for a turbulence description of the interplanetary medium. The ensemble average correlation length obtained from all subintervals is found to be 4.9 x 10 to the 11th cm. The average value of the variances of the magnetic field components are in the approximate ratio 8:9:10, where the third component is the local mean field direction. The correlation lengths and variances are found to have a systematic variation with subinterval duration, reflecting the important role of low-frequency fluctuations in the interplanetary medium.

Additive-Multiplicative Approximation of Genotype-Environment Interaction

PubMed Central

Gimelfarb, A.

1994-01-01

A model of genotype-environment interaction in quantitative traits is considered. The model represents an expansion of the traditional additive (first degree polynomial) approximation of genotypic and environmental effects to a second degree polynomial incorporating a multiplicative term besides the additive terms. An experimental evaluation of the model is suggested and applied to a trait in Drosophila melanogaster. The environmental variance of a genotype in the model is shown to be a function of the genotypic value: it is a convex parabola. The broad sense heritability in a population depends not only on the genotypic and environmental variances, but also on the position of the genotypic mean in the population relative to the minimum of the parabola. It is demonstrated, using the model, that GXE interaction rectional may cause a substantial non-linearity in offspring-parent regression and a reversed response to directional selection. It is also shown that directional selection may be accompanied by an increase in the heritability. PMID:7896113

Exploring the relationship between socioeconomic status, control beliefs and exercise behavior: a multiple mediator model.

PubMed

Murray, Terra C; Rodgers, Wendy M; Fraser, Shawn N

2012-02-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between control beliefs, socioeconomic status and exercise intentions and behavior. Specifically, we examined whether distal and proximal control beliefs mediated the association between socioeconomic status and exercise intentions and behavior. A one time, cross sectional mail out survey (N = 350) was conducted in a large urban Canadian city. Distal (i.e., personal constraints) and proximal (i.e., scheduling self-efficacy) control beliefs mediated the association between socioeconomic status and exercise, explaining approximately 30% of the variance. Proximal control beliefs (i.e., scheduling self-efficacy) partially mediated the association between socioeconomic status and intentions, with the models explaining approximately 50% of the variance. Compared to individuals with lower socioeconomic status, individuals with higher socioeconomic status reported more exercise and stronger intentions to exercise. This was at least partly because higher socioeconomic status respondents reported fewer barriers in their lives, and were more confident to cope with the scheduling demands of exercise.

Correlated environmental corrections in TOPEX/POSEIDON, with a note on ionospheric accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zlotnicki, V.

1994-01-01

Estimates of the effectiveness of an altimetric correction, and interpretation of sea level variability as a response to atmospheric forcing, both depend upon assuming that residual errors in altimetric corrections are uncorrelated among themselves and with residual sea level, or knowing the correlations. Not surprisingly, many corrections are highly correlated since they involve atmospheric properties and the ocean surface's response to them. The full corrections (including their geographically varying time mean values), show correlations between electromagnetic bias (mostly the height of wind waves) and either atmospheric pressure or water vapor of -40%, and between atmospheric pressure and water vapor of 28%. In the more commonly used collinear differences (after removal of the geographically varying time mean), atmospheric pressure and wave height show a -30% correlation, atmospheric pressure and water vapor a -10% correlation, both pressure and water vapor a 7% correlation with residual sea level, and a bit surprisingly, ionospheric electron content and wave height a 15% correlation. Only the ocean tide is totally uncorrelated with other corrections or residual sea level. The effectiveness of three ionospheric corrections (TOPEX dual-frequency, a smoothed version of the TOPEX dual-frequency, and Doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellite (DORIS) is also evaluated in terms of their reduction in variance of residual sea level. Smooth (90-200 km along-track) versions of the dual-frequency altimeter ionosphere perform best both globally and within 20 deg in latitude from the equator. The noise variance in the 1/s TOPEX inospheric samples is approximately (11 mm) squared, about the same as noise in the DORIS-based correction; however, the latter has its error over scales of order 10(exp 3) km. Within 20 deg of the equator, the DORIS-based correction adds (14 mm) squared to the residual sea level variance.

Intelligent robust tracking control for a class of uncertain strict-feedback nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Chang, Yeong-Chan

2009-02-01

This paper addresses the problem of designing robust tracking controls for a large class of strict-feedback nonlinear systems involving plant uncertainties and external disturbances. The input and virtual input weighting matrices are perturbed by bounded time-varying uncertainties. An adaptive fuzzy-based (or neural-network-based) dynamic feedback tracking controller will be developed such that all the states and signals of the closed-loop system are bounded and the trajectory tracking error should be as small as possible. First, the adaptive approximators with linearly parameterized models are designed, and a partitioned procedure with respect to the developed adaptive approximators is proposed such that the implementation of the fuzzy (or neural network) basis functions depends only on the state variables but does not depend on the tuning approximation parameters. Furthermore, we extend to design the nonlinearly parameterized adaptive approximators. Consequently, the intelligent robust tracking control schemes developed in this paper possess the properties of computational simplicity and easy implementation. Finally, simulation examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control algorithms.

Localization-delocalization transition in a system of quantum kicked rotors.

PubMed

Creffield, C E; Hur, G; Monteiro, T S

2006-01-20

The quantum dynamics of atoms subjected to pairs of closely spaced delta kicks from optical potentials are shown to be quite different from the well-known paradigm of quantum chaos, the single delta-kick system. We find the unitary matrix has a new oscillating band structure corresponding to a cellular structure of phase space and observe a spectral signature of a localization-delocalization transition from one cell to several. We find that the eigenstates have localization lengths which scale with a fractional power L approximately h(-0.75) and obtain a regime of near-linear spectral variances which approximate the "critical statistics" relation summation2(L) approximately or equal to chi(L) approximately 1/2 (1-nu)L, where nu approximately 0.75 is related to the fractal classical phase-space structure. The origin of the nu approximately 0.75 exponent is analyzed.

Neural Network and Regression Approximations in High Speed Civil Transport Aircraft Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patniak, Surya N.; Guptill, James D.; Hopkins, Dale A.; Lavelle, Thomas M.

1998-01-01

Nonlinear mathematical-programming-based design optimization can be an elegant method. However, the calculations required to generate the merit function, constraints, and their gradients, which are frequently required, can make the process computational intensive. The computational burden can be greatly reduced by using approximating analyzers derived from an original analyzer utilizing neural networks and linear regression methods. The experience gained from using both of these approximation methods in the design optimization of a high speed civil transport aircraft is the subject of this paper. The Langley Research Center's Flight Optimization System was selected for the aircraft analysis. This software was exercised to generate a set of training data with which a neural network and a regression method were trained, thereby producing the two approximating analyzers. The derived analyzers were coupled to the Lewis Research Center's CometBoards test bed to provide the optimization capability. With the combined software, both approximation methods were examined for use in aircraft design optimization, and both performed satisfactorily. The CPU time for solution of the problem, which had been measured in hours, was reduced to minutes with the neural network approximation and to seconds with the regression method. Instability encountered in the aircraft analysis software at certain design points was also eliminated. On the other hand, there were costs and difficulties associated with training the approximating analyzers. The CPU time required to generate the input-output pairs and to train the approximating analyzers was seven times that required for solution of the problem.

Microprocessor realizations of range rate filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The performance of five digital range rate filters is evaluated. A range rate filter receives an input of range data from a radar unit and produces an output of smoothed range data and its estimated derivative range rate. The filters are compared through simulation on an IBM 370. Two of the filter designs are implemented on a 6800 microprocessor-based system. Comparisons are made on the bases of noise variance reduction ratios and convergence times of the filters in response to simulated range signals.

Enhancing target variance in personality impressions: highlighting the person in person perception.

PubMed

Paulhus, D L; Reynolds, S

1995-12-01

D. A. Kenny (1994) estimated the components of personality rating variance to be 15, 20, and 20% for target, rater, and relationship, respectively. To enhance trait variance and minimize rater variance, we designed a series of studies of personality perception in discussion groups (N = 79, 58, and 59). After completing a Big Five questionnaire, participants met 7 times in small groups. After Meetings 1 and 7, group members rated each other. By applying the Social Relations Model (D. A. Kenny and L. La Voie, 1984) to each Big Five dimension at each point in time, we were able to evaluate 6 rating effects as well as rating validity. Among the findings were that (a) target variance was the largest component (almost 30%), whereas rater variance was small (less than 11%); (b) rating validity improved significantly with acquaintance, although target variance did not; and (c) no reciprocity was found, but projection was significant for Agreeableness.

Structural changes and out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance in the stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xu; Lin, Boqiang

2018-03-01

This paper aims to examine the effects of structural changes on forecasting the realized range-based variance in the stock market. Considering structural changes in variance in the stock market, we develop the HAR-RRV-SC model on the basis of the HAR-RRV model. Subsequently, the HAR-RRV and HAR-RRV-SC models are used to forecast the realized range-based variance of S&P 500 Index. We find that there are many structural changes in variance in the U.S. stock market, and the period after the financial crisis contains more structural change points than the period before the financial crisis. The out-of-sample results show that the HAR-RRV-SC model significantly outperforms the HAR-BV model when they are employed to forecast the 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month realized range-based variances, which means that structural changes can improve out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance. The out-of-sample results remain robust across the alternative rolling fixed-window, the alternative threshold value in ICSS algorithm, and the alternative benchmark models. More importantly, we believe that considering structural changes can help improve the out-of-sample performances of most of other existing HAR-RRV-type models in addition to the models used in this paper.

Dominance Genetic Variance for Traits Under Directional Selection in Drosophila serrata

PubMed Central

Sztepanacz, Jacqueline L.; Blows, Mark W.

2015-01-01

In contrast to our growing understanding of patterns of additive genetic variance in single- and multi-trait combinations, the relative contribution of nonadditive genetic variance, particularly dominance variance, to multivariate phenotypes is largely unknown. While mechanisms for the evolution of dominance genetic variance have been, and to some degree remain, subject to debate, the pervasiveness of dominance is widely recognized and may play a key role in several evolutionary processes. Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that the contribution of dominance variance to phenotypic variance may increase with the correlation between a trait and fitness; however, direct tests of this hypothesis are few. Using a multigenerational breeding design in an unmanipulated population of Drosophila serrata, we estimated additive and dominance genetic covariance matrices for multivariate wing-shape phenotypes, together with a comprehensive measure of fitness, to determine whether there is an association between directional selection and dominance variance. Fitness, a trait unequivocally under directional selection, had no detectable additive genetic variance, but significant dominance genetic variance contributing 32% of the phenotypic variance. For single and multivariate morphological traits, however, no relationship was observed between trait–fitness correlations and dominance variance. A similar proportion of additive and dominance variance was found to contribute to phenotypic variance for single traits, and double the amount of additive compared to dominance variance was found for the multivariate trait combination under directional selection. These data suggest that for many fitness components a positive association between directional selection and dominance genetic variance may not be expected. PMID:25783700

Bayesian adaptive bandit-based designs using the Gittins index for multi-armed trials with normally distributed endpoints.

PubMed

Smith, Adam L; Villar, Sofía S

2018-01-01

Adaptive designs for multi-armed clinical trials have become increasingly popular recently because of their potential to shorten development times and to increase patient response. However, developing response-adaptive designs that offer patient-benefit while ensuring the resulting trial provides a statistically rigorous and unbiased comparison of the different treatments included is highly challenging. In this paper, the theory of Multi-Armed Bandit Problems is used to define near optimal adaptive designs in the context of a clinical trial with a normally distributed endpoint with known variance. We report the operating characteristics (type I error, power, bias) and patient-benefit of these approaches and alternative designs using simulation studies based on an ongoing trial. These results are then compared to those recently published in the context of Bernoulli endpoints. Many limitations and advantages are similar in both cases but there are also important differences, specially with respect to type I error control. This paper proposes a simulation-based testing procedure to correct for the observed type I error inflation that bandit-based and adaptive rules can induce.

Validation of the SimSET simulation package for modeling the Siemens Biograph mCT PET scanner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poon, Jonathan K.; Dahlbom, Magnus L.; Casey, Michael E.; Qi, Jinyi; Cherry, Simon R.; Badawi, Ramsey D.

2015-02-01

Monte Carlo simulation provides a valuable tool in performance assessment and optimization of system design parameters for PET scanners. SimSET is a popular Monte Carlo simulation toolkit that features fast simulation time, as well as variance reduction tools to further enhance computational efficiency. However, SimSET has lacked the ability to simulate block detectors until its most recent release. Our goal is to validate new features of SimSET by developing a simulation model of the Siemens Biograph mCT PET scanner and comparing the results to a simulation model developed in the GATE simulation suite and to experimental results. We used the NEMA NU-2 2007 scatter fraction, count rates, and spatial resolution protocols to validate the SimSET simulation model and its new features. The SimSET model overestimated the experimental results of the count rate tests by 11-23% and the spatial resolution test by 13-28%, which is comparable to previous validation studies of other PET scanners in the literature. The difference between the SimSET and GATE simulation was approximately 4-8% for the count rate test and approximately 3-11% for the spatial resolution test. In terms of computational time, SimSET performed simulations approximately 11 times faster than GATE simulations. The new block detector model in SimSET offers a fast and reasonably accurate simulation toolkit for PET imaging applications.

Assumption-free estimation of the genetic contribution to refractive error across childhood.

PubMed

Guggenheim, Jeremy A; St Pourcain, Beate; McMahon, George; Timpson, Nicholas J; Evans, David M; Williams, Cathy

2015-01-01

Studies in relatives have generally yielded high heritability estimates for refractive error: twins 75-90%, families 15-70%. However, because related individuals often share a common environment, these estimates are inflated (via misallocation of unique/common environment variance). We calculated a lower-bound heritability estimate for refractive error free from such bias. Between the ages 7 and 15 years, participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) underwent non-cycloplegic autorefraction at regular research clinics. At each age, an estimate of the variance in refractive error explained by single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genetic variants was calculated using genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA) using high-density genome-wide SNP genotype information (minimum N at each age=3,404). The variance in refractive error explained by the SNPs ("SNP heritability") was stable over childhood: Across age 7-15 years, SNP heritability averaged 0.28 (SE=0.08, p<0.001). The genetic correlation for refractive error between visits varied from 0.77 to 1.00 (all p<0.001) demonstrating that a common set of SNPs was responsible for the genetic contribution to refractive error across this period of childhood. Simulations suggested lack of cycloplegia during autorefraction led to a small underestimation of SNP heritability (adjusted SNP heritability=0.35; SE=0.09). To put these results in context, the variance in refractive error explained (or predicted) by the time participants spent outdoors was <0.005 and by the time spent reading was <0.01, based on a parental questionnaire completed when the child was aged 8-9 years old. Genetic variation captured by common SNPs explained approximately 35% of the variation in refractive error between unrelated subjects. This value sets an upper limit for predicting refractive error using existing SNP genotyping arrays, although higher-density genotyping in larger samples and inclusion of interaction effects is expected to raise this figure toward twin- and family-based heritability estimates. The same SNPs influenced refractive error across much of childhood. Notwithstanding the strong evidence of association between time outdoors and myopia, and time reading and myopia, less than 1% of the variance in myopia at age 15 was explained by crude measures of these two risk factors, indicating that their effects may be limited, at least when averaged over the whole population.

Redistribution of pulmonary blood flow during unilateral hypoxia in prone and supine dogs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, C. M.; Domino, K. B.; Walther, S. M.; Glenny, R. W.; Polissar, N. L.; Hlastala, M. P.

1998-01-01

We used fluorescent-labeled microspheres in pentobarbital-anesthetized dogs to study the effects of unilateral alveolar hypoxia on the pulmonary blood flow distribution. The left lung was ventilated with inspired O2 fraction of 1.0, 0.09, or 0.03 in random order; the right lung was ventilated with inspired O2 fraction of 1.0. The lungs were removed, cleared of blood, dried at total lung capacity, then cubed to obtain approximately 1,500 small pieces of lung ( approximately 1.7 cm3). The coefficient of variation of flow increased (P < 0.001) in the hypoxic lung but was unchanged in the hyperoxic lung. Most (70-80%) variance in flow in the hyperoxic lung was attributable to structure, in contrast to only 30-40% of the variance in flow in the hypoxic lung (P < 0.001). When adjusted for the change in total flow to each lung, 90-95% of the variance in the hyperoxic lung was attributable to structure compared with 70-80% in the hypoxic lung (P < 0.001). The hilar-to-peripheral gradient, adjusted for change in total flow, decreased in the hypoxic lung (P = 0.005) but did not change in the hyperoxic lung. We conclude that hypoxic vasoconstriction alters the regional distribution of flow in the hypoxic, but not in the hyperoxic, lung.

Optimal control of LQG problem with an explicit trade-off between mean and variance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Fucai; Xie, Guo; Liu, Ding; Xie, Wenfang

2011-12-01

For discrete-time linear-quadratic Gaussian (LQG) control problems, a utility function on the expectation and the variance of the conventional performance index is considered. The utility function is viewed as an overall objective of the system and can perform the optimal trade-off between the mean and the variance of performance index. The nonlinear utility function is first converted into an auxiliary parameters optimisation problem about the expectation and the variance. Then an optimal closed-loop feedback controller for the nonseparable mean-variance minimisation problem is designed by nonlinear mathematical programming. Finally, simulation results are given to verify the algorithm's effectiveness obtained in this article.

An approach to optimize sample preparation for MALDI imaging MS of FFPE sections using fractional factorial design of experiments.

PubMed

Oetjen, Janina; Lachmund, Delf; Palmer, Andrew; Alexandrov, Theodore; Becker, Michael; Boskamp, Tobias; Maass, Peter

2016-09-01

A standardized workflow for matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization imaging mass spectrometry (MALDI imaging MS) is a prerequisite for the routine use of this promising technology in clinical applications. We present an approach to develop standard operating procedures for MALDI imaging MS sample preparation of formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue sections based on a novel quantitative measure of dataset quality. To cover many parts of the complex workflow and simultaneously test several parameters, experiments were planned according to a fractional factorial design of experiments (DoE). The effect of ten different experiment parameters was investigated in two distinct DoE sets, each consisting of eight experiments. FFPE rat brain sections were used as standard material because of low biological variance. The mean peak intensity and a recently proposed spatial complexity measure were calculated for a list of 26 predefined peptides obtained by in silico digestion of five different proteins and served as quality criteria. A five-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied on the final scores to retrieve a ranking of experiment parameters with increasing impact on data variance. Graphical abstract MALDI imaging experiments were planned according to fractional factorial design of experiments for the parameters under study. Selected peptide images were evaluated by the chosen quality metric (structure and intensity for a given peak list), and the calculated values were used as an input for the ANOVA. The parameters with the highest impact on the quality were deduced and SOPs recommended.

Analysis of categorical moderators in mixed-effects meta-analysis: Consequences of using pooled versus separate estimates of the residual between-studies variances.

PubMed

Rubio-Aparicio, María; Sánchez-Meca, Julio; López-López, José Antonio; Botella, Juan; Marín-Martínez, Fulgencio

2017-11-01

Subgroup analyses allow us to examine the influence of a categorical moderator on the effect size in meta-analysis. We conducted a simulation study using a dichotomous moderator, and compared the impact of pooled versus separate estimates of the residual between-studies variance on the statistical performance of the Q B (P) and Q B (S) tests for subgroup analyses assuming a mixed-effects model. Our results suggested that similar performance can be expected as long as there are at least 20 studies and these are approximately balanced across categories. Conversely, when subgroups were unbalanced, the practical consequences of having heterogeneous residual between-studies variances were more evident, with both tests leading to the wrong statistical conclusion more often than in the conditions with balanced subgroups. A pooled estimate should be preferred for most scenarios, unless the residual between-studies variances are clearly different and there are enough studies in each category to obtain precise separate estimates. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

30 CFR 785.16 - Permits incorporating variances from approximate original contour restoration requirements for...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... will be reduced, so as to improve the public or private uses or the ecology of such water, or flood..., during every season of the year, will not vary in a way that adversely affects the ecology of any surface...

30 CFR 785.16 - Permits incorporating variances from approximate original contour restoration requirements for...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... will be reduced, so as to improve the public or private uses or the ecology of such water, or flood..., during every season of the year, will not vary in a way that adversely affects the ecology of any surface...

30 CFR 785.16 - Permits incorporating variances from approximate original contour restoration requirements for...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... will be reduced, so as to improve the public or private uses or the ecology of such water, or flood..., during every season of the year, will not vary in a way that adversely affects the ecology of any surface...

30 CFR 785.16 - Permits incorporating variances from approximate original contour restoration requirements for...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... will be reduced, so as to improve the public or private uses or the ecology of such water, or flood..., during every season of the year, will not vary in a way that adversely affects the ecology of any surface...

30 CFR 785.16 - Permits incorporating variances from approximate original contour restoration requirements for...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... will be reduced, so as to improve the public or private uses or the ecology of such water, or flood..., during every season of the year, will not vary in a way that adversely affects the ecology of any surface...

An adaptive Hinfinity controller design for bank-to-turn missiles using ridge Gaussian neural networks.

PubMed

Lin, Chuan-Kai; Wang, Sheng-De

2004-11-01

A new autopilot design for bank-to-turn (BTT) missiles is presented. In the design of autopilot, a ridge Gaussian neural network with local learning capability and fewer tuning parameters than Gaussian neural networks is proposed to model the controlled nonlinear systems. We prove that the proposed ridge Gaussian neural network, which can be a universal approximator, equals the expansions of rotated and scaled Gaussian functions. Although ridge Gaussian neural networks can approximate the nonlinear and complex systems accurately, the small approximation errors may affect the tracking performance significantly. Therefore, by employing the Hinfinity control theory, it is easy to attenuate the effects of the approximation errors of the ridge Gaussian neural networks to a prescribed level. Computer simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed ridge Gaussian neural networks-based autopilot with Hinfinity stabilization.

Assimilation of TOPEX Sea Level Measurements with a Reduced-Gravity, Shallow Water Model of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, Ichiro

1995-01-01

Sea surface height variability measured by TOPEX is analyzed in the tropical Pacific Ocean by way of assimilation into a wind-driven, reduced-gravity, shallow water model using an approximate Kalman filter and smoother. The analysis results in an optimal fit of the dynamic model to the observations, providing it dynamically consistent interpolation of sea level and estimation of the circulation. Nearly 80% of the expected signal variance is accounted for by the model within 20 deg of the equator, and estimation uncertainty is substantially reduced by the voluminous observation. Notable features resolved by the analysis include seasonal changes associated with the North Equatorial Countercurrent and equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves. Significant discrepancies are also found between the estimate and TOPEX measurements, especially near the eastern boundary. Improvements in the estimate made by the assimilation are validated by comparisons with independent tide gauge and current meter observations. The employed filter and smoother are based on approximately computed estimation error covariance matrices, utilizing a spatial transformation and an symptotic approximation. The analysis demonstrates the practical utility of a quasi-optimal filter and smoother.

Optimal Bandwidth for Multitaper Spectrum Estimation

DOE PAGES

Haley, Charlotte L.; Anitescu, Mihai

2017-07-04

A systematic method for bandwidth parameter selection is desired for Thomson multitaper spectrum estimation. We give a method for determining the optimal bandwidth based on a mean squared error (MSE) criterion. When the true spectrum has a second-order Taylor series expansion, one can express quadratic local bias as a function of the curvature of the spectrum, which can be estimated by using a simple spline approximation. This is combined with a variance estimate, obtained by jackknifing over individual spectrum estimates, to produce an estimated MSE for the log spectrum estimate for each choice of time-bandwidth product. The bandwidth that minimizesmore » the estimated MSE then gives the desired spectrum estimate. Additionally, the bandwidth obtained using our method is also optimal for cepstrum estimates. We give an example of a damped oscillatory (Lorentzian) process in which the approximate optimal bandwidth can be written as a function of the damping parameter. Furthermore, the true optimal bandwidth agrees well with that given by minimizing estimated the MSE in these examples.« less

Environmental influences on the longitudinal covariance of expressive vocabulary: measuring the home literacy environment in a genetically sensitive design

PubMed Central

Hart, Sara A.; Petrill, Stephen A.; DeThorne, Laura S.; Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Thompson, Lee A.; Schatschneider, Chris; Cutting, Laurie E.

2010-01-01

Background Despite the well-replicated relationship between the home literacy environment and expressive vocabulary, few studies have examined the extent to which the home literacy environment is associated with the development of early vocabulary ability in the context of genetic influences. This study examined the influence of the home literacy environment on the longitudinal covariance of expressive vocabulary within a genetically sensitive design. Methods Participants were drawn from the Western Reserve Reading Project, a longitudinal twin project of 314 twin pairs based in Ohio. Twins were assessed via three annual home visits during early elementary school; expressive vocabulary was measured via the Boston Naming Test (BNT), and the Home Literacy Environment (HLE) was assessed using mothers’ report. Results The heritability of the BNT was moderate and significant at each measurement occasion, h2 = .29–.49, as were the estimates of the shared environment, c2 = .27–.39. HLE accounted for between 6–10% of the total variance in each year of vocabulary assessment. Furthermore, 7–9% of the total variance of the stability over time in BNT was accounted for by covariance in the home literacy environment. Conclusions These results indicate that aspects of the home literacy environment, as reported by mothers, account for some of the shared environmental variance associated with expressive vocabulary in school aged children. PMID:19298476

Mean-Reverting Portfolio With Budget Constraint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ziping; Palomar, Daniel P.

2018-05-01

This paper considers the mean-reverting portfolio design problem arising from statistical arbitrage in the financial markets. We first propose a general problem formulation aimed at finding a portfolio of underlying component assets by optimizing a mean-reversion criterion characterizing the mean-reversion strength, taking into consideration the variance of the portfolio and an investment budget constraint. Then several specific problems are considered based on the general formulation, and efficient algorithms are proposed. Numerical results on both synthetic and market data show that our proposed mean-reverting portfolio design methods can generate consistent profits and outperform the traditional design methods and the benchmark methods in the literature.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

Importance sampling variance reduction for the Fokker–Planck rarefied gas particle method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collyer, B.S., E-mail: benjamin.collyer@gmail.com; London Mathematical Laboratory, 14 Buckingham Street, London WC2N 6DF; Connaughton, C.

The Fokker–Planck approximation to the Boltzmann equation, solved numerically by stochastic particle schemes, is used to provide estimates for rarefied gas flows. This paper presents a variance reduction technique for a stochastic particle method that is able to greatly reduce the uncertainty of the estimated flow fields when the characteristic speed of the flow is small in comparison to the thermal velocity of the gas. The method relies on importance sampling, requiring minimal changes to the basic stochastic particle scheme. We test the importance sampling scheme on a homogeneous relaxation, planar Couette flow and a lid-driven-cavity flow, and find thatmore » our method is able to greatly reduce the noise of estimated quantities. Significantly, we find that as the characteristic speed of the flow decreases, the variance of the noisy estimators becomes independent of the characteristic speed.« less

Generalized Polynomial Chaos Based Uncertainty Quantification for Planning MRgLITT Procedures

PubMed Central

Fahrenholtz, S.; Stafford, R. J.; Maier, F.; Hazle, J. D.; Fuentes, D.

2014-01-01

Purpose A generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) method is used to incorporate constitutive parameter uncertainties within the Pennes representation of bioheat transfer phenomena. The stochastic temperature predictions of the mathematical model are critically evaluated against MR thermometry data for planning MR-guided Laser Induced Thermal Therapies (MRgLITT). Methods Pennes bioheat transfer model coupled with a diffusion theory approximation of laser tissue interaction was implemented as the underlying deterministic kernel. A probabilistic sensitivity study was used to identify parameters that provide the most variance in temperature output. Confidence intervals of the temperature predictions are compared to MR temperature imaging (MRTI) obtained during phantom and in vivo canine (n=4) MRgLITT experiments. The gPC predictions were quantitatively compared to MRTI data using probabilistic linear and temporal profiles as well as 2-D 60 °C isotherms. Results Within the range of physically meaningful constitutive values relevant to the ablative temperature regime of MRgLITT, the sensitivity study indicated that the optical parameters, particularly the anisotropy factor, created the most variance in the stochastic model's output temperature prediction. Further, within the statistical sense considered, a nonlinear model of the temperature and damage dependent perfusion, absorption, and scattering is captured within the confidence intervals of the linear gPC method. Multivariate stochastic model predictions using parameters with the dominant sensitivities show good agreement with experimental MRTI data. Conclusions Given parameter uncertainties and mathematical modeling approximations of the Pennes bioheat model, the statistical framework demonstrates conservative estimates of the therapeutic heating and has potential for use as a computational prediction tool for thermal therapy planning. PMID:23692295

Estimating the number of motor units using random sums with independently thinned terms.

PubMed

Müller, Samuel; Conforto, Adriana Bastos; Z'graggen, Werner J; Kaelin-Lang, Alain

2006-07-01

The problem of estimating the numbers of motor units N in a muscle is embedded in a general stochastic model using the notion of thinning from point process theory. In the paper a new moment type estimator for the numbers of motor units in a muscle is denned, which is derived using random sums with independently thinned terms. Asymptotic normality of the estimator is shown and its practical value is demonstrated with bootstrap and approximative confidence intervals for a data set from a 31-year-old healthy right-handed, female volunteer. Moreover simulation results are presented and Monte-Carlo based quantiles, means, and variances are calculated for N in{300,600,1000}.

Probability density and exceedance rate functions of locally Gaussian turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mark, W. D.

1989-01-01

A locally Gaussian model of turbulence velocities is postulated which consists of the superposition of a slowly varying strictly Gaussian component representing slow temporal changes in the mean wind speed and a more rapidly varying locally Gaussian turbulence component possessing a temporally fluctuating local variance. Series expansions of the probability density and exceedance rate functions of the turbulence velocity model, based on Taylor's series, are derived. Comparisons of the resulting two-term approximations with measured probability density and exceedance rate functions of atmospheric turbulence velocity records show encouraging agreement, thereby confirming the consistency of the measured records with the locally Gaussian model. Explicit formulas are derived for computing all required expansion coefficients from measured turbulence records.

Paper-based tuberculosis diagnostic devices with colorimetric gold nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Tsung-Ting; Shen, Shu-Wei; Cheng, Chao-Min; Chen, Chien-Fu

2013-08-01

A colorimetric sensing strategy employing gold nanoparticles and a paper assay platform has been developed for tuberculosis diagnosis. Unmodified gold nanoparticles and single-stranded detection oligonucleotides are used to achieve rapid diagnosis without complicated and time-consuming thiolated or other surface-modified probe preparation processes. To eliminate the use of sophisticated equipment for data analysis, the color variance for multiple detection results was simultaneously collected and concentrated on cellulose paper with the data readout transmitted for cloud computing via a smartphone. The results show that the 2.6 nM tuberculosis mycobacterium target sequences extracted from patients can easily be detected, and the turnaround time after the human DNA is extracted from clinical samples was approximately 1 h.

The Nonstationary Dynamics of Fitness Distributions: Asexual Model with Epistasis and Standing Variation

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Roques, Lionel

2016-01-01

Various models describe asexual evolution by mutation, selection, and drift. Some focus directly on fitness, typically modeling drift but ignoring or simplifying both epistasis and the distribution of mutation effects (traveling wave models). Others follow the dynamics of quantitative traits determining fitness (Fisher’s geometric model), imposing a complex but fixed form of mutation effects and epistasis, and often ignoring drift. In all cases, predictions are typically obtained in high or low mutation rate limits and for long-term stationary regimes, thus losing information on transient behaviors and the effect of initial conditions. Here, we connect fitness-based and trait-based models into a single framework, and seek explicit solutions even away from stationarity. The expected fitness distribution is followed over time via its cumulant generating function, using a deterministic approximation that neglects drift. In several cases, explicit trajectories for the full fitness distribution are obtained for arbitrary mutation rates and standing variance. For nonepistatic mutations, especially with beneficial mutations, this approximation fails over the long term but captures the early dynamics, thus complementing stationary stochastic predictions. The approximation also handles several diminishing returns epistasis models (e.g., with an optimal genotype); it can be applied at and away from equilibrium. General results arise at equilibrium, where fitness distributions display a “phase transition” with mutation rate. Beyond this phase transition, in Fisher’s geometric model, the full trajectory of fitness and trait distributions takes a simple form; robust to the details of the mutant phenotype distribution. Analytical arguments are explored regarding why and when the deterministic approximation applies. PMID:27770037

A computer tool for a minimax criterion in binary response and heteroscedastic simple linear regression models.

PubMed

Casero-Alonso, V; López-Fidalgo, J; Torsney, B

2017-01-01

Binary response models are used in many real applications. For these models the Fisher information matrix (FIM) is proportional to the FIM of a weighted simple linear regression model. The same is also true when the weight function has a finite integral. Thus, optimal designs for one binary model are also optimal for the corresponding weighted linear regression model. The main objective of this paper is to provide a tool for the construction of MV-optimal designs, minimizing the maximum of the variances of the estimates, for a general design space. MV-optimality is a potentially difficult criterion because of its nondifferentiability at equal variance designs. A methodology for obtaining MV-optimal designs where the design space is a compact interval [a, b] will be given for several standard weight functions. The methodology will allow us to build a user-friendly computer tool based on Mathematica to compute MV-optimal designs. Some illustrative examples will show a representation of MV-optimal designs in the Euclidean plane, taking a and b as the axes. The applet will be explained using two relevant models. In the first one the case of a weighted linear regression model is considered, where the weight function is directly chosen from a typical family. In the second example a binary response model is assumed, where the probability of the outcome is given by a typical probability distribution. Practitioners can use the provided applet to identify the solution and to know the exact support points and design weights. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variance stabilization and normalization for one-color microarray data using a data-driven multiscale approach.

PubMed

Motakis, E S; Nason, G P; Fryzlewicz, P; Rutter, G A

2006-10-15

Many standard statistical techniques are effective on data that are normally distributed with constant variance. Microarray data typically violate these assumptions since they come from non-Gaussian distributions with a non-trivial mean-variance relationship. Several methods have been proposed that transform microarray data to stabilize variance and draw its distribution towards the Gaussian. Some methods, such as log or generalized log, rely on an underlying model for the data. Others, such as the spread-versus-level plot, do not. We propose an alternative data-driven multiscale approach, called the Data-Driven Haar-Fisz for microarrays (DDHFm) with replicates. DDHFm has the advantage of being 'distribution-free' in the sense that no parametric model for the underlying microarray data is required to be specified or estimated; hence, DDHFm can be applied very generally, not just to microarray data. DDHFm achieves very good variance stabilization of microarray data with replicates and produces transformed intensities that are approximately normally distributed. Simulation studies show that it performs better than other existing methods. Application of DDHFm to real one-color cDNA data validates these results. The R package of the Data-Driven Haar-Fisz transform (DDHFm) for microarrays is available in Bioconductor and CRAN.

Analysis of Variance in the Modern Design of Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, Richard

2010-01-01

This paper is a tutorial introduction to the analysis of variance (ANOVA), intended as a reference for aerospace researchers who are being introduced to the analytical methods of the Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE), or who may have other opportunities to apply this method. One-way and two-way fixed-effects ANOVA, as well as random effects ANOVA, are illustrated in practical terms that will be familiar to most practicing aerospace researchers.

A comparison of polynomial approximations and artificial neural nets as response surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, William C.; Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.

1992-01-01

Artificial neural nets and polynomial approximations were used to develop response surfaces for several test problems. Based on the number of functional evaluations required to build the approximations and the number of undetermined parameters associated with the approximations, the performance of the two types of approximations was found to be comparable. A rule of thumb is developed for determining the number of nodes to be used on a hidden layer of an artificial neural net, and the number of designs needed to train an approximation is discussed.

Nursing professional practice environments: setting the stage for constructive conflict resolution and work effectiveness.

PubMed

Siu, Heidi; Spence Laschinger, Heather K; Finegan, Joan

2008-05-01

The aim of this study was to examine the impact of nurses' perceived professional practice environment on their quality of nursing conflict management approaches and ultimately their perceptions of unit effectiveness from the perspective of Deutsch's theory of constructive conflict management. Rising reports of hostility and conflict among Canadian nurses are a concern to nurses' health and the viability of effective patient care delivery. However, research on the situational factors that influence nurses' ability to apply effective conflict resolution skills that lead to positive results in practice is limited. A nonexperimental, predictive design was used in a sample of 678 registered nurses working in community hospitals within a large metropolitan area in Ontario. The results supported a modified version of the hypothesized model [chi2(1) = 16.25, Goodness of Fit = 0.99, Comparative Fit Index = 0.98, Root-Mean-Square Error of Approximation = 0.15] linking professional practice environment and core self-evaluation to nurses' conflict management and, ultimately, unit effectiveness. Professional practice environment, conflict management, and core-self evaluation explained approximately 46.6% of the variance in unit effectiveness. Positive professional practice environments and high core self-evaluations predicted nurses' constructive conflict management and, in turn, greater unit effectiveness.

The Relationship Between Burnout and Occupational Stress in Genetic Counselors.

PubMed

Johnstone, Brittney; Kaiser, Amy; Injeyan, Marie C; Sappleton, Karen; Chitayat, David; Stephens, Derek; Shuman, Cheryl

2016-08-01

Burnout represents a critical disruption in an individual's relationship with work, resulting in a state of exhaustion in which one's occupational value and capacity to perform are questioned. Burnout can negatively affect an individual's personal life, as well as employers in terms of decreased work quality, patient/client satisfaction, and employee retention. Occupational stress is a known contributor to burnout and occurs as a result of employment requirements and factors intrinsic to the work environment. Empirical research examining genetic counselor-specific burnout is limited; however, existing data suggests that genetic counselors are at increased risk for burnout. To investigate the relationship between occupational stress and burnout in genetic counselors, we administered an online survey to members of three genetic counselor professional organizations. Validated measures included the Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey (an instrument measuring burnout on three subscales: exhaustion, cynicism, and professional efficacy) and the Occupational Stress Inventory-Revised (an instrument measuring occupational stress on 14 subscales). Of the 353 respondents, more than 40 % had either considered leaving or left their job role due to burnout. Multiple regression analysis yielded significant predictors for burnout risk. The identified sets of predictors account for approximately 59 % of the variance in exhaustion, 58 % of the variance in cynicism, and 43 % of the variance in professional efficacy. Our data confirm that a significant number of genetic counselors experience burnout and that burnout is correlated with specific aspects of occupational stress. Based on these findings, practice and research recommendations are presented.

Parameterizing microphysical effects on variances and covariances of moisture and heat content using a multivariate probability density function: a study with CLUBB (tag MVCS)

DOE PAGES

Griffin, Brian M.; Larson, Vincent E.

2016-11-25

Microphysical processes, such as the formation, growth, and evaporation of precipitation, interact with variability and covariances (e.g., fluxes) in moisture and heat content. For instance, evaporation of rain may produce cold pools, which in turn may trigger fresh convection and precipitation. These effects are usually omitted or else crudely parameterized at subgrid scales in weather and climate models.A more formal approach is pursued here, based on predictive, horizontally averaged equations for the variances, covariances, and fluxes of moisture and heat content. These higher-order moment equations contain microphysical source terms. The microphysics terms can be integrated analytically, given a suitably simplemore » warm-rain microphysics scheme and an approximate assumption about the multivariate distribution of cloud-related and precipitation-related variables. Performing the integrations provides exact expressions within an idealized context.A large-eddy simulation (LES) of a shallow precipitating cumulus case is performed here, and it indicates that the microphysical effects on (co)variances and fluxes can be large. In some budgets and altitude ranges, they are dominant terms. The analytic expressions for the integrals are implemented in a single-column, higher-order closure model. Interactive single-column simulations agree qualitatively with the LES. The analytic integrations form a parameterization of microphysical effects in their own right, and they also serve as benchmark solutions that can be compared to non-analytic integration methods.« less

Dimensionality and noise in energy selective x-ray imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alvarez, Robert E.

Purpose: To develop and test a method to quantify the effect of dimensionality on the noise in energy selective x-ray imaging.Methods: The Cramèr-Rao lower bound (CRLB), a universal lower limit of the covariance of any unbiased estimator, is used to quantify the noise. It is shown that increasing dimensionality always increases, or at best leaves the same, the variance. An analytic formula for the increase in variance in an energy selective x-ray system is derived. The formula is used to gain insight into the dependence of the increase in variance on the properties of the additional basis functions, the measurementmore » noise covariance, and the source spectrum. The formula is also used with computer simulations to quantify the dependence of the additional variance on these factors. Simulated images of an object with three materials are used to demonstrate the trade-off of increased information with dimensionality and noise. The images are computed from energy selective data with a maximum likelihood estimator.Results: The increase in variance depends most importantly on the dimension and on the properties of the additional basis functions. With the attenuation coefficients of cortical bone, soft tissue, and adipose tissue as the basis functions, the increase in variance of the bone component from two to three dimensions is 1.4 × 10{sup 3}. With the soft tissue component, it is 2.7 × 10{sup 4}. If the attenuation coefficient of a high atomic number contrast agent is used as the third basis function, there is only a slight increase in the variance from two to three basis functions, 1.03 and 7.4 for the bone and soft tissue components, respectively. The changes in spectrum shape with beam hardening also have a substantial effect. They increase the variance by a factor of approximately 200 for the bone component and 220 for the soft tissue component as the soft tissue object thickness increases from 1 to 30 cm. Decreasing the energy resolution of the detectors increases the variance of the bone component markedly with three dimension processing, approximately a factor of 25 as the resolution decreases from 100 to 3 bins. The increase with two dimension processing for adipose tissue is a factor of two and with the contrast agent as the third material for two or three dimensions is also a factor of two for both components. The simulated images show that a maximum likelihood estimator can be used to process energy selective x-ray data to produce images with noise close to the CRLB.Conclusions: The method presented can be used to compute the effects of the object attenuation coefficients and the x-ray system properties on the relationship of dimensionality and noise in energy selective x-ray imaging systems.« less

Video-based eye tracking for neuropsychiatric assessment.

PubMed

Adhikari, Sam; Stark, David E

2017-01-01

This paper presents a video-based eye-tracking method, ideally deployed via a mobile device or laptop-based webcam, as a tool for measuring brain function. Eye movements and pupillary motility are tightly regulated by brain circuits, are subtly perturbed by many disease states, and are measurable using video-based methods. Quantitative measurement of eye movement by readily available webcams may enable early detection and diagnosis, as well as remote/serial monitoring, of neurological and neuropsychiatric disorders. We successfully extracted computational and semantic features for 14 testing sessions, comprising 42 individual video blocks and approximately 17,000 image frames generated across several days of testing. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of collecting video-based eye-tracking data from a standard webcam in order to assess psychomotor function. Furthermore, we were able to demonstrate through systematic analysis of this data set that eye-tracking features (in particular, radial and tangential variance on a circular visual-tracking paradigm) predict performance on well-validated psychomotor tests. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

Parent-Child Interactions in Anxious Families

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schrock, Matthew; Woodruff-Borden, Janet

2010-01-01

A considerable amount of research has examined factors associated with the etiology and maintenance of anxiety disorders in children. The familial nature of anxiety has been well-established, with genetic studies showing that approximately 30% of the variance is accounted for by genetic factors. Research into the family environment documents…

Dominance genetic variance for traits under directional selection in Drosophila serrata.

PubMed

Sztepanacz, Jacqueline L; Blows, Mark W

2015-05-01

In contrast to our growing understanding of patterns of additive genetic variance in single- and multi-trait combinations, the relative contribution of nonadditive genetic variance, particularly dominance variance, to multivariate phenotypes is largely unknown. While mechanisms for the evolution of dominance genetic variance have been, and to some degree remain, subject to debate, the pervasiveness of dominance is widely recognized and may play a key role in several evolutionary processes. Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that the contribution of dominance variance to phenotypic variance may increase with the correlation between a trait and fitness; however, direct tests of this hypothesis are few. Using a multigenerational breeding design in an unmanipulated population of Drosophila serrata, we estimated additive and dominance genetic covariance matrices for multivariate wing-shape phenotypes, together with a comprehensive measure of fitness, to determine whether there is an association between directional selection and dominance variance. Fitness, a trait unequivocally under directional selection, had no detectable additive genetic variance, but significant dominance genetic variance contributing 32% of the phenotypic variance. For single and multivariate morphological traits, however, no relationship was observed between trait-fitness correlations and dominance variance. A similar proportion of additive and dominance variance was found to contribute to phenotypic variance for single traits, and double the amount of additive compared to dominance variance was found for the multivariate trait combination under directional selection. These data suggest that for many fitness components a positive association between directional selection and dominance genetic variance may not be expected. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

Conceptual Complexity and the Bias/Variance Tradeoff

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briscoe, Erica; Feldman, Jacob

2011-01-01

In this paper we propose that the conventional dichotomy between exemplar-based and prototype-based models of concept learning is helpfully viewed as an instance of what is known in the statistical learning literature as the "bias/variance tradeoff". The bias/variance tradeoff can be thought of as a sliding scale that modulates how closely any…

Portfolio optimization using median-variance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan Mohd, Wan Rosanisah; Mohamad, Daud; Mohamed, Zulkifli

2013-04-01

Optimization models have been applied in many decision-making problems particularly in portfolio selection. Since the introduction of Markowitz's theory of portfolio selection, various approaches based on mathematical programming have been introduced such as mean-variance, mean-absolute deviation, mean-variance-skewness and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) mainly to maximize return and minimize risk. However most of the approaches assume that the distribution of data is normal and this is not generally true. As an alternative, in this paper, we employ the median-variance approach to improve the portfolio optimization. This approach has successfully catered both types of normal and non-normal distribution of data. With this actual representation, we analyze and compare the rate of return and risk between the mean-variance and the median-variance based portfolio which consist of 30 stocks from Bursa Malaysia. The results in this study show that the median-variance approach is capable to produce a lower risk for each return earning as compared to the mean-variance approach.

A negentropy minimization approach to adaptive equalization for digital communication systems.

PubMed

Choi, Sooyong; Lee, Te-Won

2004-07-01

In this paper, we introduce and investigate a new adaptive equalization method based on minimizing approximate negentropy of the estimation error for a finite-length equalizer. We consider an approximate negentropy using nonpolynomial expansions of the estimation error as a new performance criterion to improve performance of a linear equalizer based on minimizing minimum mean squared error (MMSE). Negentropy includes higher order statistical information and its minimization provides improved converge, performance and accuracy compared to traditional methods such as MMSE in terms of bit error rate (BER). The proposed negentropy minimization (NEGMIN) equalizer has two kinds of solutions, the MMSE solution and the other one, depending on the ratio of the normalization parameters. The NEGMIN equalizer has best BER performance when the ratio of the normalization parameters is properly adjusted to maximize the output power(variance) of the NEGMIN equalizer. Simulation experiments show that BER performance of the NEGMIN equalizer with the other solution than the MMSE one has similar characteristics to the adaptive minimum bit error rate (AMBER) equalizer. The main advantage of the proposed equalizer is that it needs significantly fewer training symbols than the AMBER equalizer. Furthermore, the proposed equalizer is more robust to nonlinear distortions than the MMSE equalizer.

Rao-Blackwellization for Adaptive Gaussian Sum Nonlinear Model Propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semper, Sean R.; Crassidis, John L.; George, Jemin; Mukherjee, Siddharth; Singla, Puneet

2015-01-01

When dealing with imperfect data and general models of dynamic systems, the best estimate is always sought in the presence of uncertainty or unknown parameters. In many cases, as the first attempt, the Extended Kalman filter (EKF) provides sufficient solutions to handling issues arising from nonlinear and non-Gaussian estimation problems. But these issues may lead unacceptable performance and even divergence. In order to accurately capture the nonlinearities of most real-world dynamic systems, advanced filtering methods have been created to reduce filter divergence while enhancing performance. Approaches, such as Gaussian sum filtering, grid based Bayesian methods and particle filters are well-known examples of advanced methods used to represent and recursively reproduce an approximation to the state probability density function (pdf). Some of these filtering methods were conceptually developed years before their widespread uses were realized. Advanced nonlinear filtering methods currently benefit from the computing advancements in computational speeds, memory, and parallel processing. Grid based methods, multiple-model approaches and Gaussian sum filtering are numerical solutions that take advantage of different state coordinates or multiple-model methods that reduced the amount of approximations used. Choosing an efficient grid is very difficult for multi-dimensional state spaces, and oftentimes expensive computations must be done at each point. For the original Gaussian sum filter, a weighted sum of Gaussian density functions approximates the pdf but suffers at the update step for the individual component weight selections. In order to improve upon the original Gaussian sum filter, Ref. [2] introduces a weight update approach at the filter propagation stage instead of the measurement update stage. This weight update is performed by minimizing the integral square difference between the true forecast pdf and its Gaussian sum approximation. By adaptively updating each component weight during the nonlinear propagation stage an approximation of the true pdf can be successfully reconstructed. Particle filtering (PF) methods have gained popularity recently for solving nonlinear estimation problems due to their straightforward approach and the processing capabilities mentioned above. The basic concept behind PF is to represent any pdf as a set of random samples. As the number of samples increases, they will theoretically converge to the exact, equivalent representation of the desired pdf. When the estimated qth moment is needed, the samples are used for its construction allowing further analysis of the pdf characteristics. However, filter performance deteriorates as the dimension of the state vector increases. To overcome this problem Ref. [5] applies a marginalization technique for PF methods, decreasing complexity of the system to one linear and another nonlinear state estimation problem. The marginalization theory was originally developed by Rao and Blackwell independently. According to Ref. [6] it improves any given estimator under every convex loss function. The improvement comes from calculating a conditional expected value, often involving integrating out a supportive statistic. In other words, Rao-Blackwellization allows for smaller but separate computations to be carried out while reaching the main objective of the estimator. In the case of improving an estimator's variance, any supporting statistic can be removed and its variance determined. Next, any other information that dependents on the supporting statistic is found along with its respective variance. A new approach is developed here by utilizing the strengths of the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation in Ref. [2] and a marginalization approach used for PF methods found in Ref. [7]. In the following sections a modified filtering approach is presented based on a special state-space model within nonlinear systems to reduce the dimensionality of the optimization problem in Ref. [2]. First, the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is explained and then the new marginalized adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is derived. Finally, an example simulation is presented.

Optimization of the Monte Carlo code for modeling of photon migration in tissue.

PubMed

Zołek, Norbert S; Liebert, Adam; Maniewski, Roman

2006-10-01

The Monte Carlo method is frequently used to simulate light transport in turbid media because of its simplicity and flexibility, allowing to analyze complicated geometrical structures. Monte Carlo simulations are, however, time consuming because of the necessity to track the paths of individual photons. The time consuming computation is mainly associated with the calculation of the logarithmic and trigonometric functions as well as the generation of pseudo-random numbers. In this paper, the Monte Carlo algorithm was developed and optimized, by approximation of the logarithmic and trigonometric functions. The approximations were based on polynomial and rational functions, and the errors of these approximations are less than 1% of the values of the original functions. The proposed algorithm was verified by simulations of the time-resolved reflectance at several source-detector separations. The results of the calculation using the approximated algorithm were compared with those of the Monte Carlo simulations obtained with an exact computation of the logarithm and trigonometric functions as well as with the solution of the diffusion equation. The errors of the moments of the simulated distributions of times of flight of photons (total number of photons, mean time of flight and variance) are less than 2% for a range of optical properties, typical of living tissues. The proposed approximated algorithm allows to speed up the Monte Carlo simulations by a factor of 4. The developed code can be used on parallel machines, allowing for further acceleration.

Dynamics of moment neuronal networks.

PubMed

Feng, Jianfeng; Deng, Yingchun; Rossoni, Enrico

2006-04-01

A theoretical framework is developed for moment neuronal networks (MNNs). Within this framework, the behavior of the system of spiking neurons is specified in terms of the first- and second-order statistics of their interspike intervals, i.e., the mean, the variance, and the cross correlations of spike activity. Since neurons emit and receive spike trains which can be described by renewal--but generally non-Poisson--processes, we first derive a suitable diffusion-type approximation of such processes. Two approximation schemes are introduced: the usual approximation scheme (UAS) and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck scheme. It is found that both schemes approximate well the input-output characteristics of spiking models such as the IF and the Hodgkin-Huxley models. The MNN framework is then developed according to the UAS scheme, and its predictions are tested on a few examples.

Integrating Variances into an Analytical Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanchez, Carlos

2010-01-01

For this project, I enrolled in numerous SATERN courses that taught the basics of database programming. These include: Basic Access 2007 Forms, Introduction to Database Systems, Overview of Database Design, and others. My main job was to create an analytical database that can handle many stored forms and make it easy to interpret and organize. Additionally, I helped improve an existing database and populate it with information. These databases were designed to be used with data from Safety Variances and DCR forms. The research consisted of analyzing the database and comparing the data to find out which entries were repeated the most. If an entry happened to be repeated several times in the database, that would mean that the rule or requirement targeted by that variance has been bypassed many times already and so the requirement may not really be needed, but rather should be changed to allow the variance's conditions permanently. This project did not only restrict itself to the design and development of the database system, but also worked on exporting the data from the database to a different format (e.g. Excel or Word) so it could be analyzed in a simpler fashion. Thanks to the change in format, the data was organized in a spreadsheet that made it possible to sort the data by categories or types and helped speed up searches. Once my work with the database was done, the records of variances could be arranged so that they were displayed in numerical order, or one could search for a specific document targeted by the variances and restrict the search to only include variances that modified a specific requirement. A great part that contributed to my learning was SATERN, NASA's resource for education. Thanks to the SATERN online courses I took over the summer, I was able to learn many new things about computers and databases and also go more in depth into topics I already knew about.

Task-driven optimization of CT tube current modulation and regularization in model-based iterative reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gang, Grace J.; Siewerdsen, Jeffrey H.; Webster Stayman, J.

2017-06-01

Tube current modulation (TCM) is routinely adopted on diagnostic CT scanners for dose reduction. Conventional TCM strategies are generally designed for filtered-backprojection (FBP) reconstruction to satisfy simple image quality requirements based on noise. This work investigates TCM designs for model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) to achieve optimal imaging performance as determined by a task-based image quality metric. Additionally, regularization is an important aspect of MBIR that is jointly optimized with TCM, and includes both the regularization strength that controls overall smoothness as well as directional weights that permits control of the isotropy/anisotropy of the local noise and resolution properties. Initial investigations focus on a known imaging task at a single location in the image volume. The framework adopts Fourier and analytical approximations for fast estimation of the local noise power spectrum (NPS) and modulation transfer function (MTF)—each carrying dependencies on TCM and regularization. For the single location optimization, the local detectability index (d‧) of the specific task was directly adopted as the objective function. A covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES) algorithm was employed to identify the optimal combination of imaging parameters. Evaluations of both conventional and task-driven approaches were performed in an abdomen phantom for a mid-frequency discrimination task in the kidney. Among the conventional strategies, the TCM pattern optimal for FBP using a minimum variance criterion yielded a worse task-based performance compared to an unmodulated strategy when applied to MBIR. Moreover, task-driven TCM designs for MBIR were found to have the opposite behavior from conventional designs for FBP, with greater fluence assigned to the less attenuating views of the abdomen and less fluence to the more attenuating lateral views. Such TCM patterns exaggerate the intrinsic anisotropy of the MTF and NPS as a result of the data weighting in MBIR. Directional penalty design was found to reinforce the same trend. The task-driven approaches outperform conventional approaches, with the maximum improvement in d‧ of 13% given by the joint optimization of TCM and regularization. This work demonstrates that the TCM optimal for MBIR is distinct from conventional strategies proposed for FBP reconstruction and strategies optimal for FBP are suboptimal and may even reduce performance when applied to MBIR. The task-driven imaging framework offers a promising approach for optimizing acquisition and reconstruction for MBIR that can improve imaging performance and/or dose utilization beyond conventional imaging strategies.

Minimal-Approximation-Based Decentralized Backstepping Control of Interconnected Time-Delay Systems.

PubMed

Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

2016-12-01

A decentralized adaptive backstepping control design using minimal function approximators is proposed for nonlinear large-scale systems with unknown unmatched time-varying delayed interactions and unknown backlash-like hysteresis nonlinearities. Compared with existing decentralized backstepping methods, the contribution of this paper is to design a simple local control law for each subsystem, consisting of an actual control with one adaptive function approximator, without requiring the use of multiple function approximators and regardless of the order of each subsystem. The virtual controllers for each subsystem are used as intermediate signals for designing a local actual control at the last step. For each subsystem, a lumped unknown function including the unknown nonlinear terms and the hysteresis nonlinearities is derived at the last step and is estimated by one function approximator. Thus, the proposed approach only uses one function approximator to implement each local controller, while existing decentralized backstepping control methods require the number of function approximators equal to the order of each subsystem and a calculation of virtual controllers to implement each local actual controller. The stability of the total controlled closed-loop system is analyzed using the Lyapunov stability theorem.

HIGH DIMENSIONAL COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION IN APPROXIMATE FACTOR MODELS.

PubMed

Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Mincheva, Martina

2011-01-01

The variance covariance matrix plays a central role in the inferential theories of high dimensional factor models in finance and economics. Popular regularization methods of directly exploiting sparsity are not directly applicable to many financial problems. Classical methods of estimating the covariance matrices are based on the strict factor models, assuming independent idiosyncratic components. This assumption, however, is restrictive in practical applications. By assuming sparse error covariance matrix, we allow the presence of the cross-sectional correlation even after taking out common factors, and it enables us to combine the merits of both methods. We estimate the sparse covariance using the adaptive thresholding technique as in Cai and Liu (2011), taking into account the fact that direct observations of the idiosyncratic components are unavailable. The impact of high dimensionality on the covariance matrix estimation based on the factor structure is then studied.

Quantifying uncertainty in discharge measurements: A new approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiang, J.E.; Cohn, T.A.; Mason, R.R.

2009-01-01

The accuracy of discharge measurements using velocity meters and the velocity-area method is typically assessed based on empirical studies that may not correspond to conditions encountered in practice. In this paper, a statistical approach for assessing uncertainty based on interpolated variance estimation (IVE) is introduced. The IVE method quantifies all sources of random uncertainty in the measured data. This paper presents results employing data from sites where substantial over-sampling allowed for the comparison of IVE-estimated uncertainty and observed variability among repeated measurements. These results suggest that the IVE approach can provide approximate estimates of measurement uncertainty. The use of IVE to estimate the uncertainty of a discharge measurement would provide the hydrographer an immediate determination of uncertainty and help determine whether there is a need for additional sampling in problematic river cross sections. ?? 2009 ASCE.

A National Analysis of Medicaid Home and Community Based Services Waivers for People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities: FY 2015.

PubMed

Friedman, Carli

2017-10-01

Medicaid Home and Community Based Services (HCBS) 1915(c) waivers are the largest source of funding for the long term services and supports of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD). National-level analyses of HCBS IDD waivers are crucial because of the large variance across states, the recent CMS rule and regulation changes (CMS 2249-F/2296-F), and the ever changing economic and political landscape. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine state waiver priorities for people with IDD. In FY 2015, 111 waivers projected spending $25.6 billion for approximately 630,000 people with IDD. The services with the most funding were residential habilitation, supports to live in one's own home, and day habilitation. However, our analysis revealed large discrepancies across states and services.

Communication: Limitations of the stochastic quasi-steady-state approximation in open biochemical reaction networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Philipp; Straube, Arthur V.; Grima, Ramon

2011-11-01

It is commonly believed that, whenever timescale separation holds, the predictions of reduced chemical master equations obtained using the stochastic quasi-steady-state approximation are in very good agreement with the predictions of the full master equations. We use the linear noise approximation to obtain a simple formula for the relative error between the predictions of the two master equations for the Michaelis-Menten reaction with substrate input. The reduced approach is predicted to overestimate the variance of the substrate concentration fluctuations by as much as 30%. The theoretical results are validated by stochastic simulations using experimental parameter values for enzymes involved in proteolysis, gluconeogenesis, and fermentation.

Design, implementation, and psychometric analysis of a scoring instrument for simulated pediatric resuscitation: a report from the EXPRESS pediatric investigators.

PubMed

Donoghue, Aaron; Ventre, Kathleen; Boulet, John; Brett-Fleegler, Marisa; Nishisaki, Akira; Overly, Frank; Cheng, Adam

2011-04-01

Robustly tested instruments for quantifying clinical performance during pediatric resuscitation are lacking. Examining Pediatric Resuscitation Education through Simulation and Scripting Collaborative was established to conduct multicenter trials of simulation education in pediatric resuscitation, evaluating performance with multiple instruments, one of which is the Clinical Performance Tool (CPT). We hypothesize that the CPT will measure clinical performance during simulated pediatric resuscitation in a reliable and valid manner. Using a pediatric resuscitation scenario as a basis, a scoring system was designed based on Pediatric Advanced Life Support algorithms comprising 21 tasks. Each task was scored as follows: task not performed (0 points); task performed partially, incorrectly, or late (1 point); and task performed completely, correctly, and within the recommended time frame (2 points). Study teams at 14 children's hospitals went through the scenario twice (PRE and POST) with an interposed 20-minute debriefing. Both scenarios for each of eight study teams were scored by multiple raters. A generalizability study, based on the PRE scores, was conducted to investigate the sources of measurement error in the CPT total scores. Inter-rater reliability was estimated based on the variance components. Validity was assessed by repeated measures analysis of variance comparing PRE and POST scores. Sixteen resuscitation scenarios were reviewed and scored by seven raters. Inter-rater reliability for the overall CPT score was 0.63. POST scores were found to be significantly improved compared with PRE scores when controlled for within-subject covariance (F1,15 = 4.64, P < 0.05). The variance component ascribable to rater was 2.4%. Reliable and valid measures of performance in simulated pediatric resuscitation can be obtained from the CPT. Future studies should examine the applicability of trichotomous scoring instruments to other clinical scenarios, as well as performance during actual resuscitations.

An approximation method for configuration optimization of trusses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, Scott R.; Vanderplaats, Garret N.

1988-01-01

Two- and three-dimensional elastic trusses are designed for minimum weight by varying the areas of the members and the location of the joints. Constraints on member stresses and Euler buckling are imposed and multiple static loading conditions are considered. The method presented here utilizes an approximate structural analysis based on first order Taylor series expansions of the member forces. A numerical optimizer minimizes the weight of the truss using information from the approximate structural analysis. Comparisons with results from other methods are made. It is shown that the method of forming an approximate structural analysis based on linearized member forces leads to a highly efficient method of truss configuration optimization.

Bias and Variance Approximations for Estimators of Extreme Quantiles

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-11-01

r u - g(u). The errors of these approximations are, respectively, O ...The conditions required for this are yrci, yr+ypci. Taking the special cases r -1, r -1 and the limit r -) O , we deduce Jelog g(Y) 6 2folog g(Y) ~ e( 3+2y...a 2 (log g(TipL, o , o )) - I + I- exp-a" a a r - (- + Z - Ze - Z + (Z 2 - z~eZ + Z3 e - Z) + 0(y 2 )) 2 18 and using the formula E[Zre- sz1 - (_-) r r ( r

Comparing estimates of genetic variance across different relationship models.

PubMed

Legarra, Andres

2016-02-01

Use of relationships between individuals to estimate genetic variances and heritabilities via mixed models is standard practice in human, plant and livestock genetics. Different models or information for relationships may give different estimates of genetic variances. However, comparing these estimates across different relationship models is not straightforward as the implied base populations differ between relationship models. In this work, I present a method to compare estimates of variance components across different relationship models. I suggest referring genetic variances obtained using different relationship models to the same reference population, usually a set of individuals in the population. Expected genetic variance of this population is the estimated variance component from the mixed model times a statistic, Dk, which is the average self-relationship minus the average (self- and across-) relationship. For most typical models of relationships, Dk is close to 1. However, this is not true for very deep pedigrees, for identity-by-state relationships, or for non-parametric kernels, which tend to overestimate the genetic variance and the heritability. Using mice data, I show that heritabilities from identity-by-state and kernel-based relationships are overestimated. Weighting these estimates by Dk scales them to a base comparable to genomic or pedigree relationships, avoiding wrong comparisons, for instance, "missing heritabilities". Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contracting to improve your revenue cycle performance.

PubMed

Welter, Terri L; Semko, George A; Miller, Tony; Lauer, Roberta

2007-09-01

The following key drivers of commercial contract variability can have a material effect on your hospital's revenue cycle: Claim form variance. Benefit design. Contract complexity. Coding variance. Medical necessity. Precertification/authorization. Claim adjudication/appeal requirements. Additional documentation requirements. Timeliness of payment. Third-party payer activity.

ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change?

PubMed

Rodo, Xavier; Pascual, Mercedes; Fuchs, George; Faruque, A S G

2002-10-01

We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is apparent in the last two decades (1980-2001), while it is weaker and eventually uncorrelated during the first parts of the last century (1893-1920 and 1920-1940, respectively). Concomitant with these changes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) undergoes shifts in its frequency spectrum. These changes include an intensification of the approximately 4-yr cycle during the recent interval as a response to the well documented Pacific basin regime shift of 1976. This change in remote ENSO modulation alone can only partially serve to substantiate the differences observed in cholera. Regional or basin-wide changes possibly linked to global warming must be invoked that seem to facilitate ENSO transmission. For the recent cholera series and during specific time intervals corresponding to local maxima in ENSO, this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance. This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings.

ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change?

PubMed Central

Rodó, Xavier; Pascual, Mercedes; Fuchs, George; Faruque, A. S. G.

2002-01-01

We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is apparent in the last two decades (1980–2001), while it is weaker and eventually uncorrelated during the first parts of the last century (1893–1920 and 1920–1940, respectively). Concomitant with these changes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) undergoes shifts in its frequency spectrum. These changes include an intensification of the approximately 4-yr cycle during the recent interval as a response to the well documented Pacific basin regime shift of 1976. This change in remote ENSO modulation alone can only partially serve to substantiate the differences observed in cholera. Regional or basin-wide changes possibly linked to global warming must be invoked that seem to facilitate ENSO transmission. For the recent cholera series and during specific time intervals corresponding to local maxima in ENSO, this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance. This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings. PMID:12228724

An efficient algorithm for building locally refined hp - adaptive H-PCFE: Application to uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

2017-12-01

Hybrid polynomial correlated function expansion (H-PCFE) is a novel metamodel formulated by coupling polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) and Kriging. Unlike commonly available metamodels, H-PCFE performs a bi-level approximation and hence, yields more accurate results. However, till date, it is only applicable to medium scaled problems. In order to address this apparent void, this paper presents an improved H-PCFE, referred to as locally refined hp - adaptive H-PCFE. The proposed framework computes the optimal polynomial order and important component functions of PCFE, which is an integral part of H-PCFE, by using global variance based sensitivity analysis. Optimal number of training points are selected by using distribution adaptive sequential experimental design. Additionally, the formulated model is locally refined by utilizing the prediction error, which is inherently obtained in H-PCFE. Applicability of the proposed approach has been illustrated with two academic and two industrial problems. To illustrate the superior performance of the proposed approach, results obtained have been compared with those obtained using hp - adaptive PCFE. It is observed that the proposed approach yields highly accurate results. Furthermore, as compared to hp - adaptive PCFE, significantly less number of actual function evaluations are required for obtaining results of similar accuracy.

The interprofessional socialization and valuing scale: a tool for evaluating the shift toward collaborative care approaches in health care settings.

PubMed

King, Gillian; Shaw, Lynn; Orchard, Carole A; Miller, Stacy

2010-01-01

There is a need for tools by which to evaluate the beliefs, behaviors, and attitudes that underlie interprofessional socialization and collaborative practice in health care settings. This paper introduces the Interprofessional Socialization and Valuing Scale (ISVS), a 24-item self-report measure based on concepts in the interprofessional literature concerning shifts in beliefs, behaviors, and attitudes that underlie interprofessional socialization. The ISVS was designed to measure the degree to which transformative learning takes place, as evidenced by changed assumptions and worldviews, enhanced knowledge and skills concerning interprofessional collaborative teamwork, and shifts in values and identities. The scales of the ISVS were determined using principal components analysis. The principal components analysis revealed three scales accounting for approximately 49% of the variance in responses: (a) Self-Perceived Ability to Work with Others, (b) Value in Working with Others, and (c) Comfort in Working with Others. These empirically derived scales showed good fit with the conceptual basis of the measure. The ISVS provides insight into the abilities, values, and beliefs underlying socio-cultural aspects of collaborative and authentic interprofessional care in the workplace, and can be used to evaluate the impact of interprofessional education efforts, in house team training, and workshops.

Genetic variance estimation with imputed variants finds negligible missing heritability for human height and body mass index

PubMed Central

Yang, Jian; Bakshi, Andrew; Zhu, Zhihong; Hemani, Gibran; Vinkhuyzen, Anna A.E.; Lee, Sang Hong; Robinson, Matthew R.; Perry, John R.B.; Nolte, Ilja M.; van Vliet-Ostaptchouk, Jana V.; Snieder, Harold; Esko, Tonu; Milani, Lili; Mägi, Reedik; Metspalu, Andres; Hamsten, Anders; Magnusson, Patrik K.E.; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Ingelsson, Erik; Soranzo, Nicole; Keller, Matthew C.; Wray, Naomi R.; Goddard, Michael E.; Visscher, Peter M.

2015-01-01

We propose a method (GREML-LDMS) to estimate heritability for human complex traits in unrelated individuals using whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data. We demonstrate using simulations based on WGS data that ~97% and ~68% of variation at common and rare variants, respectively, can be captured by imputation. Using the GREML-LDMS method, we estimate from 44,126 unrelated individuals that all ~17M imputed variants explain 56% (s.e. = 2.3%) of variance for height and 27% (s.e. = 2.5%) for body mass index (BMI), and find evidence that height- and BMI-associated variants have been under natural selection. Considering imperfect tagging of imputation and potential overestimation of heritability from previous family-based studies, heritability is likely to be 60–70% for height and 30–40% for BMI. Therefore, missing heritability is small for both traits. For further gene discovery of complex traits, a design with SNP arrays followed by imputation is more cost-effective than WGS at current prices. PMID:26323059

On approaches to analyze the sensitivity of simulated hydrologic fluxes to model parameters in the community land model

DOE PAGES

Bao, Jie; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; ...

2015-12-04

Here, effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalizedmore » linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.« less

Modeling tracer transport in randomly heterogeneous porous media by nonlocal moment equations: Anomalous transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales-Casique, E.; Lezama-Campos, J. L.; Guadagnini, A.; Neuman, S. P.

2013-05-01

Modeling tracer transport in geologic porous media suffers from the corrupt characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrogeologic properties of the system and the incomplete knowledge of processes governing transport at multiple scales. Representations of transport dynamics based on a Fickian model of the kind considered in the advection-dispersion equation (ADE) fail to capture (a) the temporal variation associated with the rate of spreading of a tracer, and (b) the distribution of early and late arrival times which are often observed in field and/or laboratory scenarios and are considered as the signature of anomalous transport. Elsewhere we have presented exact stochastic moment equations to model tracer transport in randomly heterogeneous aquifers. We have also developed a closure scheme which enables one to provide numerical solutions of such moment equations at different orders of approximations. The resulting (ensemble) average and variance of concentration fields were found to display a good agreement against Monte Carlo - based simulation results for mildly heterogeneous (or well-conditioned strongly heterogeneous) media. Here we explore the ability of the moment equations approach to describe the distribution of early arrival times and late time tailing effects which can be observed in Monte-Carlo based breakthrough curves (BTCs) of the (ensemble) mean concentration. We show that BTCs of mean resident concentration calculated at a fixed space location through higher-order approximations of moment equations display long tailing features of the kind which is typically associated with anomalous transport behavior and are not represented by an ADE model with constant dispersive parameter, such as the zero-order approximation.

Exercise adherence in breast cancer survivors training for a dragon boat race competition: a preliminary investigation.

PubMed

Courneya, K S; Blanchard, C M; Laing, D M

2001-01-01

Recent research has applied the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to understanding exercise after a cancer diagnosis, but studies are few and have been limited by retrospective designs, self-report measures of exercise and varied results. In the present study, we extended this research by using a prospective design and an objective measure of exercise adherence. Participants were a convenience sample of 24 breast cancer survivors attending a twice weekly, 12-week training program in preparation for a dragon boat race competition. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire that assessed demographic and medical variables, past exercise, and the TPB (i.e. beliefs, subjective norm, attitude, perceived behavioral control and intention). Program attendance was monitored over a 12-week period by the class instructor. Overall, participants attended 66% of the training sessions. Multiple regression analyses indicated that: (a) intention was the sole determinant of program attendance and explained 35% of the variance; (b) the TPB constructs explained 49% of the variance in intention with subjective norm being the most important determinant; and (c) the key underlying beliefs were support from physician, spouse, and friends, and confidence in being able to attend the training class when having limited time, no one to exercise with, fatigue, and other health problems. Based on this preliminary study, it was concluded that the TPB may provide a good framework on which to base interventions designed to promote exercise in breast cancer survivors. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Design optimization and tolerance analysis of a spot-size converter for the taper-assisted vertical integration platform in InP.

PubMed

Tolstikhin, Valery; Saeidi, Shayan; Dolgaleva, Ksenia

2018-05-01

We report on the design optimization and tolerance analysis of a multistep lateral-taper spot-size converter based on indium phosphide (InP), performed using the Monte Carlo method. Being a natural fit to (and a key building block of) the regrowth-free taper-assisted vertical integration platform, such a spot-size converter enables efficient and displacement-tolerant fiber coupling to InP-based photonic integrated circuits at a wavelength of 1.31 μm. An exemplary four-step lateral-taper design featuring 0.35 dB coupling loss at optimal alignment of a standard single-mode fiber; ≥7  μm 1 dB displacement tolerance in any direction in a facet plane; and great stability against manufacturing variances is demonstrated.

Passivity/Lyapunov based controller design for trajectory tracking of flexible joint manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sicard, Pierre; Wen, John T.; Lanari, Leonardo

1992-01-01

A passivity and Lyapunov based approach for the control design for the trajectory tracking problem of flexible joint robots is presented. The basic structure of the proposed controller is the sum of a model-based feedforward and a model-independent feedback. Feedforward selection and solution is analyzed for a general model for flexible joints, and for more specific and practical model structures. Passivity theory is used to design a motor state-based controller in order to input-output stabilize the error system formed by the feedforward. Observability conditions for asymptotic stability are stated and verified. In order to accommodate for modeling uncertainties and to allow for the implementation of a simplified feedforward compensation, the stability of the system is analyzed in presence of approximations in the feedforward by using a Lyapunov based robustness analysis. It is shown that under certain conditions, e.g., the desired trajectory is varying slowly enough, stability is maintained for various approximations of a canonical feedforward.

Physical activity among adults with obesity: testing the Health Action Process Approach.

PubMed

Parschau, Linda; Barz, Milena; Richert, Jana; Knoll, Nina; Lippke, Sonia; Schwarzer, Ralf

2014-02-01

This study tested the applicability of the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) in a sample of obese adults in the context of physical activity. Physical activity was assessed along with motivational and volitional variables specified in the HAPA (motivational self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, risk perception, intention, maintenance self-efficacy, action planning, coping planning, recovery self-efficacy, social support) in a sample of 484 obese men and women (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2). Applying structural equation modeling, the fit of the HAPA model was satisfactory-χ²(191) = 569.93, p < .05, χ²/df = 2.98, comparative fit index = .91, normed-fit index = .87, and root mean square error of approximation = .06 (90% CI = .06, .07)-explaining 30% of the variance in intention and 18% of the variance in physical activity. Motivational self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and social support were related to intention. An association between maintenance self-efficacy and coping planning was found. Recovery self-efficacy and social support were associated with physical activity. No relationships were found between risk perception and intention and between planning and physical activity. The assumptions derived from the HAPA were partly confirmed and the HAPA may, therefore, constitute a theoretical backdrop for intervention designs to promote physical activity in adults with obesity. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Analysis of EPA's endocrine screening battery and recommendations for further review.

PubMed

Schapaugh, Adam W; McFadden, Lisa G; Zorrilla, Leah M; Geter, David R; Stuchal, Leah D; Sunger, Neha; Borgert, Christopher J

2015-08-01

EPA's Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program Tier 1 battery consists of eleven assays intended to identify the potential of a chemical to interact with the estrogen, androgen, thyroid, or steroidogenesis systems. We have collected control data from a subset of test order recipients from the first round of screening. The analysis undertaken herein demonstrates that the EPA should review all testing methods prior to issuing further test orders. Given the frequency with which certain performance criteria were violated, a primary focus of that review should consider adjustments to these standards to better reflect biological variability. A second focus should be to provide detailed, assay-specific direction on when results should be discarded; no clear guidance exists on the degree to which assays need to be re-run for failing to meet performance criteria. A third focus should be to identify permissible differences in study design and execution that have a large influence on endpoint variance. Experimental guidelines could then be re-defined such that endpoint variances are reduced and performance criteria are violated less frequently. It must be emphasized that because we were restricted to a subset (approximately half) of the control data, our analyses serve only as examples to underscore the importance of a detailed, rigorous, and comprehensive evaluation of the performance of the battery. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamical mass generation in unquenched QED using the Dyson-Schwinger equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kızılersü, Ayse; Sizer, Tom; Pennington, Michael R.

We present a comprehensive numerical study of dynamical mass generation for unquenched QED in four dimensions, in the absence of four-fermion interactions, using the Dyson-Schwinger approach. We begin with an overview of previous investigations of criticality in the quenched approximation. To this we add an analysis using a new fermion-antifermion-boson interaction ansatz, the Kizilersu-Pennington (KP) vertex, developed for an unquenched treatment. After surveying criticality in previous unquenched studies, we investigate the performance of the KP vertex in dynamical mass generation using a renormalized fully unquenched system of equations. This we compare with the results for two hybrid vertices incorporating themore » Curtis-Pennington vertex in the fermion equation. We conclude that the KP vertex is as yet incomplete, and its relative gauge-variance is due to its lack of massive transverse components in its design.« less

The influence of field experiences on stages of concern and attitudes of preservice teachers toward science and science teaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strawitz, Barbara M.; Malone, Mark R.

The purpose of the study was to determine whether the field experience component of an undergraduate science methods course influenced teachers' concerns and attitudes toward science and science teaching. Age, grade-point average, openmindedness, and school assignment were examined as factors which might explain some of the variance in the dependent measures. A one-group pretest-posttest design was used. Students were administered the Teacher Concerns Questionnaire, the Science Teaching Attitude Scales, and the Rokeach Dogmatism Scale approximately eight weeks after the pretest. Results indicated that field experiences did not significantly change student concerns about teaching science but significantly improved student attitudes toward science and science teaching. Students differing in age, grade-point average, and openmindedness did not difer significantly in changes in concerns and changes in attitude toward science and science teaching. Students assigned to different schools differed significantly in changes in attitude toward science.

Effects of different crumb rubber sizes on the flowability and compressive strength of hybrid fibre reinforced ECC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khed, Veerendrakumar C.; Mohammed, Bashar S.; Fadhil Nuruddin, Muhd

2018-04-01

The different sizes of crumb rubber have been used to investigate the effects on flowability and the compressive strength of the hybrid fibre reinforced engineered cementitious composite. Two sizes of crumb rubber 30 mesh and 1 to 3mm were used in partial replacement with the fine aggregate up to 60%. The experimental study was carried out through mathematical and statistical analysis by response surface methodology (RSM) using the Design Expert software. The response models have been developed and the results were validated by analysis of variance (ANOVA). It was found that finer sized crumb rubber inclusion had produced better workability and higher compressive strength when compared to the larger size and it was concluded that crumb rubber has negative effect on compressive strength and positive effect on workability. The optimization results are found to an approximately good agreement with the experimental results.

Dynamical mass generation in unquenched QED using the Dyson-Schwinger equations

DOE PAGES

Kızılersü, Ayse; Sizer, Tom; Pennington, Michael R.; ...

2015-03-13

We present a comprehensive numerical study of dynamical mass generation for unquenched QED in four dimensions, in the absence of four-fermion interactions, using the Dyson-Schwinger approach. We begin with an overview of previous investigations of criticality in the quenched approximation. To this we add an analysis using a new fermion-antifermion-boson interaction ansatz, the Kizilersu-Pennington (KP) vertex, developed for an unquenched treatment. After surveying criticality in previous unquenched studies, we investigate the performance of the KP vertex in dynamical mass generation using a renormalized fully unquenched system of equations. This we compare with the results for two hybrid vertices incorporating themore » Curtis-Pennington vertex in the fermion equation. We conclude that the KP vertex is as yet incomplete, and its relative gauge-variance is due to its lack of massive transverse components in its design.« less

Gender-role conflict and gender-role orientation in a sample of gay men.

PubMed

Choi, Namok; Herdman, Kevin; Fuqua, Dale R; Newman, Jody L

2011-01-01

This exploratory study was designed to examine the relationship between gender role dimensions derived from the Bem Sex-Role Inventory (BSRI) and the 4 dimensions of gender role conflict represented on the Gender Role Conflict Scale (GRCS) using a sample (N = 400) composed of exclusively gay men. Results from regression of 3 BSRI scores (femininity, social masculinity, personal masculinity) on the 4 subscale scores of the GRCS indicated that gender role conflict was most strongly and positively associated with the negative aspect of masculinity (social masculinity), accounting for about 11% of variability in social masculinity scores. In particular, the success-power-competition dimension of the GRCS was the major predictor of social masculinity in gay men. Gender role conflict was also strongly but negatively associated with femininity, accounting for approximately 10% of the variance in femininity scores among the men in the sample. Implications and recommendations for further studies are discussed.

Scales measuring psychosocial antecedents of coital initiation among adolescents in a rural southern state.

PubMed

Nagy, Stephen; Watts, Graham F; Nagy, M Christine

2003-06-01

The psychometric properties of psychosexual scales designed to examine intentions toward sexual intercourse were examined. Participants from 22 schools in central Alabama provided data on demographics, knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and intentions toward sexual intercourse. Theoretical constructs from Theory of Reasoned Action and Social Cognitive Theory guided the development of items assessing psychosocial aspects of sexual intercourse. Findings indicated that approximately half of the conceptual items (13 items) loaded on four factors. The four scales were (a) Coital Intentions, (b) Attitudes toward Negative Sexual Outcomes, (c) Social Norms toward Premature Sex, and (d) Self-efficacy of Sexual Refusal Skills. These factors showed adequate independence and explained 46% of the variance in the data. Cronbach alpha ranged from .69 to .78. Scales show acceptable evidence for evaluation; however, additional research from other geographical districts and other ethnic groups is needed to confirm their generalizability.

Spectral analysis comparisons of Fourier-theory-based methods and minimum variance (Capon) methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garbanzo-Salas, Marcial; Hocking, Wayne. K.

2015-09-01

In recent years, adaptive (data dependent) methods have been introduced into many areas where Fourier spectral analysis has traditionally been used. Although the data-dependent methods are often advanced as being superior to Fourier methods, they do require some finesse in choosing the order of the relevant filters. In performing comparisons, we have found some concerns about the mappings, particularly when related to cases involving many spectral lines or even continuous spectral signals. Using numerical simulations, several comparisons between Fourier transform procedures and minimum variance method (MVM) have been performed. For multiple frequency signals, the MVM resolves most of the frequency content only for filters that have more degrees of freedom than the number of distinct spectral lines in the signal. In the case of Gaussian spectral approximation, MVM will always underestimate the width, and can misappropriate the location of spectral line in some circumstances. Large filters can be used to improve results with multiple frequency signals, but are computationally inefficient. Significant biases can occur when using MVM to study spectral information or echo power from the atmosphere. Artifacts and artificial narrowing of turbulent layers is one such impact.

A Shearlet-based algorithm for quantum noise removal in low-dose CT images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Aguan; Jiang, Huiqin; Ma, Ling; Liu, Yumin; Yang, Xiaopeng

2016-03-01

Low-dose CT (LDCT) scanning is a potential way to reduce the radiation exposure of X-ray in the population. It is necessary to improve the quality of low-dose CT images. In this paper, we propose an effective algorithm for quantum noise removal in LDCT images using shearlet transform. Because the quantum noise can be simulated by Poisson process, we first transform the quantum noise by using anscombe variance stabilizing transform (VST), producing an approximately Gaussian noise with unitary variance. Second, the non-noise shearlet coefficients are obtained by adaptive hard-threshold processing in shearlet domain. Third, we reconstruct the de-noised image using the inverse shearlet transform. Finally, an anscombe inverse transform is applied to the de-noised image, which can produce the improved image. The main contribution is to combine the anscombe VST with the shearlet transform. By this way, edge coefficients and noise coefficients can be separated from high frequency sub-bands effectively. A number of experiments are performed over some LDCT images by using the proposed method. Both quantitative and visual results show that the proposed method can effectively reduce the quantum noise while enhancing the subtle details. It has certain value in clinical application.

Acoustic and spectral characteristics of young children's fricative productions: A developmental perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Shawn L.; Fox, Robert Allen

2005-10-01

Scientists have made great strides toward understanding the mechanisms of speech production and perception. However, the complex relationships between the acoustic structures of speech and the resulting psychological percepts have yet to be fully and adequately explained, especially in speech produced by younger children. Thus, this study examined the acoustic structure of voiceless fricatives (/f, θ, s, /sh/) produced by adults and typically developing children from 3 to 6 years of age in terms of multiple acoustic parameters (durations, normalized amplitude, spectral slope, and spectral moments). It was found that the acoustic parameters of spectral slope and variance (commonly excluded from previous studies of child speech) were important acoustic parameters in the differentiation and classification of the voiceless fricatives, with spectral variance being the only measure to separate all four places of articulation. It was further shown that the sibilant contrast between /s/ and /sh/ was less distinguished in children than adults, characterized by a dramatic change in several spectral parameters at approximately five years of age. Discriminant analysis revealed evidence that classification models based on adult data were sensitive to these spectral differences in the five-year-old age group.

Fast mean and variance computation of the diffuse sound transmission through finite-sized thick and layered wall and floor systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decraene, Carolina; Dijckmans, Arne; Reynders, Edwin P. B.

2018-05-01

A method is developed for computing the mean and variance of the diffuse field sound transmission loss of finite-sized layered wall and floor systems that consist of solid, fluid and/or poroelastic layers. This is achieved by coupling a transfer matrix model of the wall or floor to statistical energy analysis subsystem models of the adjacent room volumes. The modal behavior of the wall is approximately accounted for by projecting the wall displacement onto a set of sinusoidal lateral basis functions. This hybrid modal transfer matrix-statistical energy analysis method is validated on multiple wall systems: a thin steel plate, a polymethyl methacrylate panel, a thick brick wall, a sandwich panel, a double-leaf wall with poro-elastic material in the cavity, and a double glazing. The predictions are compared with experimental data and with results obtained using alternative prediction methods such as the transfer matrix method with spatial windowing, the hybrid wave based-transfer matrix method, and the hybrid finite element-statistical energy analysis method. These comparisons confirm the prediction accuracy of the proposed method and the computational efficiency against the conventional hybrid finite element-statistical energy analysis method.

Testing Interaction Effects without Discarding Variance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lopez, Kay A.

Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multiple regression are two of the most commonly used methods of data analysis in behavioral science research. Although ANOVA was intended for use with experimental designs, educational researchers have used ANOVA extensively in aptitude-treatment interaction (ATI) research. This practice tends to make researchers…

Shared environmental influences on personality: A combined twin and adoption approach

PubMed Central

Matteson, Lindsay K.; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G.

2013-01-01

In the past, shared environmental influences on personality traits have been found to be negligible in behavior genetic studies (e.g., Bouchard & McGue, 2003). However, most studies have been based on biometrical modeling of twins only. Failure to meet key assumptions of the classical twin design could lead to biased estimates of shared environmental effects. Alternative approaches to the etiology of personality are needed. In the current study we estimated the impact of shared environmental factors on adolescent personality by simultaneously modeling both twin and adoption data. We found evidence for significant shared environmental influences on Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire (MPQ) Absorption (15% variance explained), Alienation (10%), Harm Avoidance (14%), and Traditionalism (26%) scales. Additionally, we found that in most cases biometrical models constraining parameter estimates to be equal across study type (twins versus adoptees) fit no worse than models allowing these parameters to vary; this suggests that results converge across study design despite the potential (sometimes opposite) biases of twin and adoption studies. Thus, we can be more confident that our findings represent the true contribution of shared environmental variance to personality development. PMID:24065564

Spatial and temporal variance in fatty acid and stable isotope signatures across trophic levels in large river systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, Andrea; Knights, Brent C.; Lafrancois, Toben D.; Bartsch, Lynn; Vallazza, Jon; Bartsch, Michelle; Richardson, William B.; Karns, Byron N.; Bailey, Sean; Kreiling, Rebecca

2018-01-01

Fatty acid and stable isotope signatures allow researchers to better understand food webs, food sources, and trophic relationships. Research in marine and lentic systems has indicated that the variance of these biomarkers can exhibit substantial differences across spatial and temporal scales, but this type of analysis has not been completed for large river systems. Our objectives were to evaluate variance structures for fatty acids and stable isotopes (i.e. δ13C and δ15N) of seston, threeridge mussels, hydropsychid caddisflies, gizzard shad, and bluegill across spatial scales (10s-100s km) in large rivers of the Upper Mississippi River Basin, USA that were sampled annually for two years, and to evaluate the implications of this variance on the design and interpretation of trophic studies. The highest variance for both isotopes was present at the largest spatial scale for all taxa (except seston δ15N) indicating that these isotopic signatures are responding to factors at a larger geographic level rather than being influenced by local-scale alterations. Conversely, the highest variance for fatty acids was present at the smallest spatial scale (i.e. among individuals) for all taxa except caddisflies, indicating that the physiological and metabolic processes that influence fatty acid profiles can differ substantially between individuals at a given site. Our results highlight the need to consider the spatial partitioning of variance during sample design and analysis, as some taxa may not be suitable to assess ecological questions at larger spatial scales.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

Stratum variance estimation for sample allocation in crop surveys. [Great Plains Corridor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, C. R., Jr.; Chhikara, R. S. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The problem of determining stratum variances needed in achieving an optimum sample allocation for crop surveys by remote sensing is investigated by considering an approach based on the concept of stratum variance as a function of the sampling unit size. A methodology using the existing and easily available information of historical crop statistics is developed for obtaining initial estimates of tratum variances. The procedure is applied to estimate stratum variances for wheat in the U.S. Great Plains and is evaluated based on the numerical results thus obtained. It is shown that the proposed technique is viable and performs satisfactorily, with the use of a conservative value for the field size and the crop statistics from the small political subdivision level, when the estimated stratum variances were compared to those obtained using the LANDSAT data.

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S.

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components requiredmore » for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.« less

On the Power of Multivariate Latent Growth Curve Models to Detect Correlated Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hertzog, Christopher; Lindenberger, Ulman; Ghisletta, Paolo; Oertzen, Timo von

2006-01-01

We evaluated the statistical power of single-indicator latent growth curve models (LGCMs) to detect correlated change between two variables (covariance of slopes) as a function of sample size, number of longitudinal measurement occasions, and reliability (measurement error variance). Power approximations following the method of Satorra and Saris…

Exact Distributions of Intraclass Correlation and Cronbach's Alpha with Gaussian Data and General Covariance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kistner, Emily O.; Muller, Keith E.

2004-01-01

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact…

Stability and Change in the Behavioral Development of Premature Infants.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitchell, Sandra K.; Telzrow, Robert W.

The Brazelton Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scale (BNBAS) was administered to a group of 73 premature infants at approximately 34, 36, and 40 weeks of gestational age. Six behavioral cluster scores and one reflex cluster score were computed for each examination. Repeated measures analyses of variance showed significant steady improvement on all…

Optimal clinical trial design based on a dichotomous Markov-chain mixed-effect sleep model.

PubMed

Steven Ernest, C; Nyberg, Joakim; Karlsson, Mats O; Hooker, Andrew C

2014-12-01

D-optimal designs for discrete-type responses have been derived using generalized linear mixed models, simulation based methods and analytical approximations for computing the fisher information matrix (FIM) of non-linear mixed effect models with homogeneous probabilities over time. In this work, D-optimal designs using an analytical approximation of the FIM for a dichotomous, non-homogeneous, Markov-chain phase advanced sleep non-linear mixed effect model was investigated. The non-linear mixed effect model consisted of transition probabilities of dichotomous sleep data estimated as logistic functions using piecewise linear functions. Theoretical linear and nonlinear dose effects were added to the transition probabilities to modify the probability of being in either sleep stage. D-optimal designs were computed by determining an analytical approximation the FIM for each Markov component (one where the previous state was awake and another where the previous state was asleep). Each Markov component FIM was weighted either equally or by the average probability of response being awake or asleep over the night and summed to derive the total FIM (FIM(total)). The reference designs were placebo, 0.1, 1-, 6-, 10- and 20-mg dosing for a 2- to 6-way crossover study in six dosing groups. Optimized design variables were dose and number of subjects in each dose group. The designs were validated using stochastic simulation/re-estimation (SSE). Contrary to expectations, the predicted parameter uncertainty obtained via FIM(total) was larger than the uncertainty in parameter estimates computed by SSE. Nevertheless, the D-optimal designs decreased the uncertainty of parameter estimates relative to the reference designs. Additionally, the improvement for the D-optimal designs were more pronounced using SSE than predicted via FIM(total). Through the use of an approximate analytic solution and weighting schemes, the FIM(total) for a non-homogeneous, dichotomous Markov-chain phase advanced sleep model was computed and provided more efficient trial designs and increased nonlinear mixed-effects modeling parameter precision.

An efficient sampling approach for variance-based sensitivity analysis based on the law of total variance in the successive intervals without overlapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Wanying; Lu, Zhenzhou; Jiang, Xian

2018-06-01

To efficiently execute the variance-based global sensitivity analysis, the law of total variance in the successive intervals without overlapping is proved at first, on which an efficient space-partition sampling-based approach is subsequently proposed in this paper. Through partitioning the sample points of output into different subsets according to different inputs, the proposed approach can efficiently evaluate all the main effects concurrently by one group of sample points. In addition, there is no need for optimizing the partition scheme in the proposed approach. The maximum length of subintervals is decreased by increasing the number of sample points of model input variables in the proposed approach, which guarantees the convergence condition of the space-partition approach well. Furthermore, a new interpretation on the thought of partition is illuminated from the perspective of the variance ratio function. Finally, three test examples and one engineering application are employed to demonstrate the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the proposed approach.

Genetic diversity in the interference selection limit.

PubMed

Good, Benjamin H; Walczak, Aleksandra M; Neher, Richard A; Desai, Michael M

2014-03-01

Pervasive natural selection can strongly influence observed patterns of genetic variation, but these effects remain poorly understood when multiple selected variants segregate in nearby regions of the genome. Classical population genetics fails to account for interference between linked mutations, which grows increasingly severe as the density of selected polymorphisms increases. Here, we describe a simple limit that emerges when interference is common, in which the fitness effects of individual mutations play a relatively minor role. Instead, similar to models of quantitative genetics, molecular evolution is determined by the variance in fitness within the population, defined over an effectively asexual segment of the genome (a "linkage block"). We exploit this insensitivity in a new "coarse-grained" coalescent framework, which approximates the effects of many weakly selected mutations with a smaller number of strongly selected mutations that create the same variance in fitness. This approximation generates accurate and efficient predictions for silent site variability when interference is common. However, these results suggest that there is reduced power to resolve individual selection pressures when interference is sufficiently widespread, since a broad range of parameters possess nearly identical patterns of silent site variability.

On a numerical method for solving integro-differential equations with variable coefficients with applications in finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudryavtsev, O.; Rodochenko, V.

2018-03-01

We propose a new general numerical method aimed to solve integro-differential equations with variable coefficients. The problem under consideration arises in finance where in the context of pricing barrier options in a wide class of stochastic volatility models with jumps. To handle the effect of the correlation between the price and the variance, we use a suitable substitution for processes. Then we construct a Markov-chain approximation for the variation process on small time intervals and apply a maturity randomization technique. The result is a system of boundary problems for integro-differential equations with constant coefficients on the line in each vertex of the chain. We solve the arising problems using a numerical Wiener-Hopf factorization method. The approximate formulae for the factors are efficiently implemented by means of the Fast Fourier Transform. Finally, we use a recurrent procedure that moves backwards in time on the variance tree. We demonstrate the convergence of the method using Monte-Carlo simulations and compare our results with the results obtained by the Wiener-Hopf method with closed-form expressions of the factors.

Depth of interaction decoding of a continuous crystal detector module.

PubMed

Ling, T; Lewellen, T K; Miyaoka, R S

2007-04-21

We present a clustering method to extract the depth of interaction (DOI) information from an 8 mm thick crystal version of our continuous miniature crystal element (cMiCE) small animal PET detector. This clustering method, based on the maximum-likelihood (ML) method, can effectively build look-up tables (LUT) for different DOI regions. Combined with our statistics-based positioning (SBP) method, which uses a LUT searching algorithm based on the ML method and two-dimensional mean-variance LUTs of light responses from each photomultiplier channel with respect to different gamma ray interaction positions, the position of interaction and DOI can be estimated simultaneously. Data simulated using DETECT2000 were used to help validate our approach. An experiment using our cMiCE detector was designed to evaluate the performance. Two and four DOI region clustering were applied to the simulated data. Two DOI regions were used for the experimental data. The misclassification rate for simulated data is about 3.5% for two DOI regions and 10.2% for four DOI regions. For the experimental data, the rate is estimated to be approximately 25%. By using multi-DOI LUTs, we also observed improvement of the detector spatial resolution, especially for the corner region of the crystal. These results show that our ML clustering method is a consistent and reliable way to characterize DOI in a continuous crystal detector without requiring any modifications to the crystal or detector front end electronics. The ability to characterize the depth-dependent light response function from measured data is a major step forward in developing practical detectors with DOI positioning capability.

Characterizing nonconstant instrumental variance in emerging miniaturized analytical techniques.

PubMed

Noblitt, Scott D; Berg, Kathleen E; Cate, David M; Henry, Charles S

2016-04-07

Measurement variance is a crucial aspect of quantitative chemical analysis. Variance directly affects important analytical figures of merit, including detection limit, quantitation limit, and confidence intervals. Most reported analyses for emerging analytical techniques implicitly assume constant variance (homoskedasticity) by using unweighted regression calibrations. Despite the assumption of constant variance, it is known that most instruments exhibit heteroskedasticity, where variance changes with signal intensity. Ignoring nonconstant variance results in suboptimal calibrations, invalid uncertainty estimates, and incorrect detection limits. Three techniques where homoskedasticity is often assumed were covered in this work to evaluate if heteroskedasticity had a significant quantitative impact-naked-eye, distance-based detection using paper-based analytical devices (PADs), cathodic stripping voltammetry (CSV) with disposable carbon-ink electrode devices, and microchip electrophoresis (MCE) with conductivity detection. Despite these techniques representing a wide range of chemistries and precision, heteroskedastic behavior was confirmed for each. The general variance forms were analyzed, and recommendations for accounting for nonconstant variance discussed. Monte Carlo simulations of instrument responses were performed to quantify the benefits of weighted regression, and the sensitivity to uncertainty in the variance function was tested. Results show that heteroskedasticity should be considered during development of new techniques; even moderate uncertainty (30%) in the variance function still results in weighted regression outperforming unweighted regressions. We recommend utilizing the power model of variance because it is easy to apply, requires little additional experimentation, and produces higher-precision results and more reliable uncertainty estimates than assuming homoskedasticity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A case study of ISO 11064 in control centre design in the Norwegian petroleum industry.

PubMed

Aas, Andreas Lumbe; Skramstad, Torbjørn

2010-12-01

In 2006-2008 we performed a case study for the purpose of assessing the industrial application of the seven part Control Centre (CC) design standard ISO 11064 to identify positive and negative experiences among stakeholders in the Norwegian petroleum sector. We mainly focussed on ISO 11064 Part 1, because this was the most commonly used among the identified stakeholders. ISO 11064 is generally appreciated and applied in the industry, but we did observe a significant variance in use between the different parts of the standard. We also identified potential areas for improvements, like scope and application adaptation. Thus we suggest a more goal-based approach based on one normative part only. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An easy-to-prepare mini-scaffold for DNA origami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, S.; Majikes, J.; Martínez, A.; Girón, T. M.; Fennell, H.; Samano, E. C.; Labean, T. H.

2015-10-01

The DNA origami strategy for assembling designed supramolecular complexes requires ssDNA as a scaffold strand. A system is described that was designed approximately one third the length of the M13 bacteriophage genome for ease of ssDNA production. Folding of the 2404-base ssDNA scaffold into a variety of origami shapes with high assembly yields is demonstrated.The DNA origami strategy for assembling designed supramolecular complexes requires ssDNA as a scaffold strand. A system is described that was designed approximately one third the length of the M13 bacteriophage genome for ease of ssDNA production. Folding of the 2404-base ssDNA scaffold into a variety of origami shapes with high assembly yields is demonstrated. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Flow chart of the production process, base sequences of the scaffold strand, and synthetic staple strands, as well as caDNAnao files for all three mini-M13 origami structures. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr04921k

Methods to estimate the between‐study variance and its uncertainty in meta‐analysis†

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dan; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Bender, Ralf; Bowden, Jack; Knapp, Guido; Kuss, Oliver; Higgins, Julian PT; Langan, Dean; Salanti, Georgia

2015-01-01

Meta‐analyses are typically used to estimate the overall/mean of an outcome of interest. However, inference about between‐study variability, which is typically modelled using a between‐study variance parameter, is usually an additional aim. The DerSimonian and Laird method, currently widely used by default to estimate the between‐study variance, has been long challenged. Our aim is to identify known methods for estimation of the between‐study variance and its corresponding uncertainty, and to summarise the simulation and empirical evidence that compares them. We identified 16 estimators for the between‐study variance, seven methods to calculate confidence intervals, and several comparative studies. Simulation studies suggest that for both dichotomous and continuous data the estimator proposed by Paule and Mandel and for continuous data the restricted maximum likelihood estimator are better alternatives to estimate the between‐study variance. Based on the scenarios and results presented in the published studies, we recommend the Q‐profile method and the alternative approach based on a ‘generalised Cochran between‐study variance statistic’ to compute corresponding confidence intervals around the resulting estimates. Our recommendations are based on a qualitative evaluation of the existing literature and expert consensus. Evidence‐based recommendations require an extensive simulation study where all methods would be compared under the same scenarios. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26332144

[Again review of research design and statistical methods of Chinese Journal of Cardiology].

PubMed

Kong, Qun-yu; Yu, Jin-ming; Jia, Gong-xian; Lin, Fan-li

2012-11-01

To re-evaluate and compare the research design and the use of statistical methods in Chinese Journal of Cardiology. Summary the research design and statistical methods in all of the original papers in Chinese Journal of Cardiology all over the year of 2011, and compared the result with the evaluation of 2008. (1) There is no difference in the distribution of the design of researches of between the two volumes. Compared with the early volume, the use of survival regression and non-parameter test are increased, while decreased in the proportion of articles with no statistical analysis. (2) The proportions of articles in the later volume are significant lower than the former, such as 6(4%) with flaws in designs, 5(3%) with flaws in the expressions, 9(5%) with the incomplete of analysis. (3) The rate of correction of variance analysis has been increased, so as the multi-group comparisons and the test of normality. The error rate of usage has been decreased form 17% to 25% without significance in statistics due to the ignorance of the test of homogeneity of variance. Many improvements showed in Chinese Journal of Cardiology such as the regulation of the design and statistics. The homogeneity of variance should be paid more attention in the further application.

Determinants of treatment duration in the prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism: a protocol for a balanced vignette experiment.

PubMed

Ten Cate, Vincent; Essers, Brigitte Ab; Prins, Martin H

2017-05-10

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a condition that annually occurs in approximately 1‰ of the world's population. Patients who have already had a VTE are at elevated risk for a recurrent VTE. Recurrent events increase the risk of long-term sequelae and can be fatal. Adequate secondary prophylaxis is thus needed to prevent such events. Patients with VTE are often prone to bleeding, and pharmacological prophylaxis exacerbates bleeding risk. Expert opinions on the optimum duration of secondary prophylaxis in VTE still vary substantially. The existence of treatment guidelines has not led to uniformity of VTE secondary prophylaxis strategies, which means that physicians still adhere to individual risk calculi in determining treatment duration. The aim of this study is to establish what factors lie at the root of this variance in VTE secondary prophylactic treatment strategies, and what risk factors are deemed of particular importance in determining the perceived risks and benefits of variable treatment durations. To do this, we created a survey based on a D-efficient and G-efficient balanced experimental vignette design. This protocol covers all aspects of how this survey was set up and how it was implemented. The analysis of the experimental data will be carried out using mixed-effects methods, which are beneficial in scenarios with high interindividual variance and correlated (eg, repeated-measures) responses. We propose the use of maximal random effects structures insofar as possible. All data are de-identified, and any identifying characteristics of the respondents will not be reported in a final manuscript or elsewhere. A paper describing the expert interviews is currently under peer review. A manuscript that contains the analysis of the results of the experiment described in this protocol is being drafted, and will also be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Cell survival fraction estimation based on the probability densities of domain and cell nucleus specific energies using improved microdosimetric kinetic models.

PubMed

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Furusawa, Yoshiya

2012-10-01

Estimation of the survival fractions of cells irradiated with various particles over a wide linear energy transfer (LET) range is of great importance in the treatment planning of charged-particle therapy. Two computational models were developed for estimating survival fractions based on the concept of the microdosimetric kinetic model. They were designated as the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models. The former model takes into account the stochastic natures of both domain and cell nucleus specific energies, whereas the latter model represents the stochastic nature of domain specific energy by its approximated mean value and variance to reduce the computational time. The probability densities of the domain and cell nucleus specific energies are the fundamental quantities for expressing survival fractions in these models. These densities are calculated using the microdosimetric and LET-estimator functions implemented in the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS) in combination with the convolution or database method. Both the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models can reproduce the measured survival fractions for high-LET and high-dose irradiations, whereas a previously proposed microdosimetric kinetic model predicts lower values for these fractions, mainly due to intrinsic ignorance of the stochastic nature of cell nucleus specific energies in the calculation. The models we developed should contribute to a better understanding of the mechanism of cell inactivation, as well as improve the accuracy of treatment planning of charged-particle therapy.

Still in the closet: the invisible minority in medical education.

PubMed

Lapinski, Jessica; Sexton, Patricia

2014-08-15

To investigate the relationship between sexual orientation and gender identity in regard to levels of depression; levels of perceived social support; comfort with disclosure of orientation; and the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) campus climate. E-mail invitations to participate in the current cross-sectional questionnaire-based study were sent to all thirty US osteopathic medical schools in August 2012; six schools responded and disseminated the survey to their students. Participating students completed an anonymous web-based survey, and informed consent was obtained when they accessed the survey. The survey was designed specifically for the current study but contained scales used with permission from previously published research. Analysis procedures included nonparametric tests, one-way analysis of variance and Pearson's correlations. Of the 4112 students invited to participate in the survey, 1334 (32.4%) completed it. Approximately 85% of respondents self-identified as heterosexual only. No respondents identified as transgender. In general, LGB students indicated higher levels of depression (P < .001), slightly lower levels of perceived social support (P < .001), and more discomfort with disclosure of sexual orientation (P < .001). A majority of students rated their campus climate as noninclusive. Results of the current study indicated a relationship between sexual orientation and depression, perceived social support, comfort with disclosure of orientation, and the LGBT campus climate in osteopathic medical students. In the future, osteopathic medical schools should consider closely examining their campus culture in order to create a more positive and inclusive environment for all its students.

Expected values and variances of Bragg peak intensities measured in a nanocrystalline powder diffraction experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Öztürk, Hande; Noyan, I. Cevdet

A rigorous study of sampling and intensity statistics applicable for a powder diffraction experiment as a function of crystallite size is presented. Our analysis yields approximate equations for the expected value, variance and standard deviations for both the number of diffracting grains and the corresponding diffracted intensity for a given Bragg peak. The classical formalism published in 1948 by Alexander, Klug & Kummer [J. Appl. Phys.(1948),19, 742–753] appears as a special case, limited to large crystallite sizes, here. It is observed that both the Lorentz probability expression and the statistics equations used in the classical formalism are inapplicable for nanocrystallinemore » powder samples.« less

Expected values and variances of Bragg peak intensities measured in a nanocrystalline powder diffraction experiment

DOE PAGES

Öztürk, Hande; Noyan, I. Cevdet

2017-08-24

A rigorous study of sampling and intensity statistics applicable for a powder diffraction experiment as a function of crystallite size is presented. Our analysis yields approximate equations for the expected value, variance and standard deviations for both the number of diffracting grains and the corresponding diffracted intensity for a given Bragg peak. The classical formalism published in 1948 by Alexander, Klug & Kummer [J. Appl. Phys.(1948),19, 742–753] appears as a special case, limited to large crystallite sizes, here. It is observed that both the Lorentz probability expression and the statistics equations used in the classical formalism are inapplicable for nanocrystallinemore » powder samples.« less

Analysis of Variance: What Is Your Statistical Software Actually Doing?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Jian; Lomax, Richard G.

2011-01-01

Users assume statistical software packages produce accurate results. In this article, the authors systematically examined Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and Statistical Analysis System (SAS) for 3 analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs, mixed-effects ANOVA, fixed-effects analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), and nested ANOVA. For each…

Analysis of Developmental Data: Comparison Among Alternative Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Ronald S.

1975-01-01

To examine the ability of the correction factor epsilon to counteract statistical bias in univariate analysis, an analysis of variance (adjusted by epsilon) and a multivariate analysis of variance were performed on the same data. The results indicated that univariate analysis is a fully protected design when used with epsilon. (JMB)

Variance Estimation Using Replication Methods in Structural Equation Modeling with Complex Sample Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stapleton, Laura M.

2008-01-01

This article discusses replication sampling variance estimation techniques that are often applied in analyses using data from complex sampling designs: jackknife repeated replication, balanced repeated replication, and bootstrapping. These techniques are used with traditional analyses such as regression, but are currently not used with structural…

Non-linear 3-D Born shear waveform tomography in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panning, Mark P.; Cao, Aimin; Kim, Ahyi; Romanowicz, Barbara A.

2012-07-01

Southeast (SE) Asia is a tectonically complex region surrounded by many active source regions, thus an ideal test bed for developments in seismic tomography. Much recent development in tomography has been based on 3-D sensitivity kernels based on the first-order Born approximation, but there are potential problems with this approach when applied to waveform data. In this study, we develop a radially anisotropic model of SE Asia using long-period multimode waveforms. We use a theoretical 'cascade' approach, starting with a large-scale Eurasian model developed using 2-D Non-linear Asymptotic Coupling Theory (NACT) sensitivity kernels, and then using a modified Born approximation (nBorn), shown to be more accurate at modelling waveforms, to invert a subset of the data for structure in a subregion (longitude 75°-150° and latitude 0°-45°). In this subregion, the model is parametrized at a spherical spline level 6 (˜200 km). The data set is also inverted using NACT and purely linear 3-D Born kernels. All three final models fit the data well, with just under 80 per cent variance reduction as calculated using the corresponding theory, but the nBorn model shows more detailed structure than the NACT model throughout and has much better resolution at depths greater than 250 km. Based on variance analysis, the purely linear Born kernels do not provide as good a fit to the data due to deviations from linearity for the waveform data set used in this modelling. The nBorn isotropic model shows a stronger fast velocity anomaly beneath the Tibetan Plateau in the depth range of 150-250 km, which disappears at greater depth, consistent with other studies. It also indicates moderate thinning of the high-velocity plate in the middle of Tibet, consistent with a model where Tibet is underplated by Indian lithosphere from the south and Eurasian lithosphere from the north, in contrast to a model with continuous underplating by Indian lithosphere across the entire plateau. The nBorn anisotropic model detects negative ξ anomalies suggestive of vertical deformation associated with subducted slabs and convergent zones at the Himalayan front and Tien Shan at depths near 150 km.

Predictors of burnout among correctional mental health professionals.

PubMed

Gallavan, Deanna B; Newman, Jody L

2013-02-01

This study focused on the experience of burnout among a sample of correctional mental health professionals. We examined the relationship of a linear combination of optimism, work family conflict, and attitudes toward prisoners with two dimensions derived from the Maslach Burnout Inventory and the Professional Quality of Life Scale. Initially, three subscales from the Maslach Burnout Inventory and two subscales from the Professional Quality of Life Scale were subjected to principal components analysis with oblimin rotation in order to identify underlying dimensions among the subscales. This procedure resulted in two components accounting for approximately 75% of the variance (r = -.27). The first component was labeled Negative Experience of Work because it seemed to tap the experience of being emotionally spent, detached, and socially avoidant. The second component was labeled Positive Experience of Work and seemed to tap a sense of competence, success, and satisfaction in one's work. Two multiple regression analyses were subsequently conducted, in which Negative Experience of Work and Positive Experience of Work, respectively, were predicted from a linear combination of optimism, work family conflict, and attitudes toward prisoners. In the first analysis, 44% of the variance in Negative Experience of Work was accounted for, with work family conflict and optimism accounting for the most variance. In the second analysis, 24% of the variance in Positive Experience of Work was accounted for, with optimism and attitudes toward prisoners accounting for the most variance.

Stroke Survivors' Evaluations of a Stroke Workbook-Based Intervention Designed to Increase Perceived Control over Recovery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joice, Sara; Johnston, Marie; Bonetti, Debbie; Morrison, Val; MacWalter, Ron

2012-01-01

Objective: To report stroke survivors' experiences and perceived usefulness of an effective self-help workbook-based intervention. Design: A cross-sectional study involving the intervention group of an earlier randomized controlled trial. Setting: At the participants' homes approximately seven weeks post-hospital discharge. Method: Following the…

Solving bi-level optimization problems in engineering design using kriging models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Yi; Liu, Xiaojie; Du, Gang

2018-05-01

Stackelberg game-theoretic approaches are applied extensively in engineering design to handle distributed collaboration decisions. Bi-level genetic algorithms (BLGAs) and response surfaces have been used to solve the corresponding bi-level programming models. However, the computational costs for BLGAs often increase rapidly with the complexity of lower-level programs, and optimal solution functions sometimes cannot be approximated by response surfaces. This article proposes a new method, namely the optimal solution function approximation by kriging model (OSFAKM), in which kriging models are used to approximate the optimal solution functions. A detailed example demonstrates that OSFAKM can obtain better solutions than BLGAs and response surface-based methods, and at the same time reduce the workload of computation remarkably. Five benchmark problems and a case study of the optimal design of a thin-walled pressure vessel are also presented to illustrate the feasibility and potential of the proposed method for bi-level optimization in engineering design.

Optical and mechanical design of a "zipper" photonic crystal optomechanical cavity.

PubMed

Chan, Jasper; Eichenfield, Matt; Camacho, Ryan; Painter, Oskar

2009-03-02

Design of a doubly-clamped beam structure capable of localizing mechanical and optical energy at the nanoscale is presented. The optical design is based upon photonic crystal concepts in which patterning of a nanoscale-cross-section beam can result in strong optical localization to an effective optical mode volume of 0.2 cubic wavelengths ( (lambdac)(3)). By placing two identical nanobeams within the near field of each other, strong optomechanical coupling can be realized for differential motion between the beams. Current designs for thin film silicon nitride beams at a wavelength of lambda?= 1.5 microm indicate that such structures can simultaneously realize an optical Q-factor of 7x10(6), motional mass m(u) approximately 40 picograms, mechanical mode frequency Omega(M)/2pi approximately 170 MHz, and an optomechanical coupling factor (g(OM) identical with domega(c)/dx = omega(c)/L(OM)) with effective length L(OM) approximately lambda= 1.5 microm.

Analysis of longitudinal "time series" data in toxicology.

PubMed

Cox, C; Cory-Slechta, D A

1987-02-01

Studies focusing on chronic toxicity or on the time course of toxicant effect often involve repeated measurements or longitudinal observations of endpoints of interest. Experimental design considerations frequently necessitate between-group comparisons of the resulting trends. Typically, procedures such as the repeated-measures analysis of variance have been used for statistical analysis, even though the required assumptions may not be satisfied in some circumstances. This paper describes an alternative analytical approach which summarizes curvilinear trends by fitting cubic orthogonal polynomials to individual profiles of effect. The resulting regression coefficients serve as quantitative descriptors which can be subjected to group significance testing. Randomization tests based on medians are proposed to provide a comparison of treatment and control groups. Examples from the behavioral toxicology literature are considered, and the results are compared to more traditional approaches, such as repeated-measures analysis of variance.

What's in a Day? A Guide to Decomposing the Variance in Intensive Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

de Haan-Rietdijk, Silvia; Kuppens, Peter; Hamaker, Ellen L.

2016-01-01

In recent years there has been a growing interest in the use of intensive longitudinal research designs to study within-person processes. Examples are studies that use experience sampling data and autoregressive modeling to investigate emotion dynamics and between-person differences therein. Such designs often involve multiple measurements per day and multiple days per person, and it is not clear how this nesting of the data should be accounted for: That is, should such data be considered as two-level data (which is common practice at this point), with occasions nested in persons, or as three-level data with beeps nested in days which are nested in persons. We show that a significance test of the day-level variance in an empty three-level model is not reliable when there is autocorrelation. Furthermore, we show that misspecifying the number of levels can lead to spurious or misleading findings, such as inflated variance or autoregression estimates. Throughout the paper we present instructions and R code for the implementation of the proposed models, which includes a novel three-level AR(1) model that estimates moment-to-moment inertia and day-to-day inertia. Based on our simulations we recommend model selection using autoregressive multilevel models in combination with the AIC. We illustrate this method using empirical emotion data from two independent samples, and discuss the implications and the relevance of the existence of a day level for the field. PMID:27378986

What's in a Day? A Guide to Decomposing the Variance in Intensive Longitudinal Data.

PubMed

de Haan-Rietdijk, Silvia; Kuppens, Peter; Hamaker, Ellen L

2016-01-01

In recent years there has been a growing interest in the use of intensive longitudinal research designs to study within-person processes. Examples are studies that use experience sampling data and autoregressive modeling to investigate emotion dynamics and between-person differences therein. Such designs often involve multiple measurements per day and multiple days per person, and it is not clear how this nesting of the data should be accounted for: That is, should such data be considered as two-level data (which is common practice at this point), with occasions nested in persons, or as three-level data with beeps nested in days which are nested in persons. We show that a significance test of the day-level variance in an empty three-level model is not reliable when there is autocorrelation. Furthermore, we show that misspecifying the number of levels can lead to spurious or misleading findings, such as inflated variance or autoregression estimates. Throughout the paper we present instructions and R code for the implementation of the proposed models, which includes a novel three-level AR(1) model that estimates moment-to-moment inertia and day-to-day inertia. Based on our simulations we recommend model selection using autoregressive multilevel models in combination with the AIC. We illustrate this method using empirical emotion data from two independent samples, and discuss the implications and the relevance of the existence of a day level for the field.

Genomic estimation of additive and dominance effects and impact of accounting for dominance on accuracy of genomic evaluation in sheep populations.

PubMed

Moghaddar, N; van der Werf, J H J

2017-12-01

The objectives of this study were to estimate the additive and dominance variance component of several weight and ultrasound scanned body composition traits in purebred and combined cross-bred sheep populations based on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker genotypes and then to investigate the effect of fitting additive and dominance effects on accuracy of genomic evaluation. Additive and dominance variance components were estimated in a mixed model equation based on "average information restricted maximum likelihood" using additive and dominance (co)variances between animals calculated from 48,599 SNP marker genotypes. Genomic prediction was based on genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP), and the accuracy of prediction was assessed based on a random 10-fold cross-validation. Across different weight and scanned body composition traits, dominance variance ranged from 0.0% to 7.3% of the phenotypic variance in the purebred population and from 7.1% to 19.2% in the combined cross-bred population. In the combined cross-bred population, the range of dominance variance decreased to 3.1% and 9.9% after accounting for heterosis effects. Accounting for dominance effects significantly improved the likelihood of the fitting model in the combined cross-bred population. This study showed a substantial dominance genetic variance for weight and ultrasound scanned body composition traits particularly in cross-bred population; however, improvement in the accuracy of genomic breeding values was small and statistically not significant. Dominance variance estimates in combined cross-bred population could be overestimated if heterosis is not fitted in the model. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The relationship between observational scale and explained variance in benthic communities

PubMed Central

Flood, Roger D.; Frisk, Michael G.; Garza, Corey D.; Lopez, Glenn R.; Maher, Nicole P.

2018-01-01

This study addresses the impact of spatial scale on explaining variance in benthic communities. In particular, the analysis estimated the fraction of community variation that occurred at a spatial scale smaller than the sampling interval (i.e., the geographic distance between samples). This estimate is important because it sets a limit on the amount of community variation that can be explained based on the spatial configuration of a study area and sampling design. Six benthic data sets were examined that consisted of faunal abundances, common environmental variables (water depth, grain size, and surficial percent cover), and sonar backscatter treated as a habitat proxy (categorical acoustic provinces). Redundancy analysis was coupled with spatial variograms generated by multiscale ordination to quantify the explained and residual variance at different spatial scales and within and between acoustic provinces. The amount of community variation below the sampling interval of the surveys (< 100 m) was estimated to be 36–59% of the total. Once adjusted for this small-scale variation, > 71% of the remaining variance was explained by the environmental and province variables. Furthermore, these variables effectively explained the spatial structure present in the infaunal community. Overall, no scale problems remained to compromise inferences, and unexplained infaunal community variation had no apparent spatial structure within the observational scale of the surveys (> 100 m), although small-scale gradients (< 100 m) below the observational scale may be present. PMID:29324746

Sample size for post-marketing safety studies based on historical controls.

PubMed

Wu, Yu-te; Makuch, Robert W

2010-08-01

As part of a drug's entire life cycle, post-marketing studies are an important part in the identification of rare, serious adverse events. Recently, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has begun to implement new post-marketing safety mandates as a consequence of increased emphasis on safety. The purpose of this research is to provide exact sample size formula for the proposed hybrid design, based on a two-group cohort study with incorporation of historical external data. Exact sample size formula based on the Poisson distribution is developed, because the detection of rare events is our outcome of interest. Performance of exact method is compared to its approximate large-sample theory counterpart. The proposed hybrid design requires a smaller sample size compared to the standard, two-group prospective study design. In addition, the exact method reduces the number of subjects required in the treatment group by up to 30% compared to the approximate method for the study scenarios examined. The proposed hybrid design satisfies the advantages and rationale of the two-group design with smaller sample sizes generally required. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Uncertainty estimation and multi sensor fusion for kinematic laser tracker measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, Thomas

2013-08-01

Laser trackers are widely used to measure kinematic tasks such as tracking robot movements. Common methods to evaluate the uncertainty in the kinematic measurement include approximations specified by the manufacturers, various analytical adjustment methods and the Kalman filter. In this paper a new, real-time technique is proposed, which estimates the 4D-path (3D-position + time) uncertainty of an arbitrary path in space. Here a hybrid system estimator is applied in conjunction with the kinematic measurement model. This method can be applied to processes, which include various types of kinematic behaviour, constant velocity, variable acceleration or variable turn rates. The new approach is compared with the Kalman filter and a manufacturer's approximations. The comparison was made using data obtained by tracking an industrial robot's tool centre point with a Leica laser tracker AT901 and a Leica laser tracker LTD500. It shows that the new approach is more appropriate to analysing kinematic processes than the Kalman filter, as it reduces overshoots and decreases the estimated variance. In comparison with the manufacturer's approximations, the new approach takes account of kinematic behaviour with an improved description of the real measurement process and a reduction in estimated variance. This approach is therefore well suited to the analysis of kinematic processes with unknown changes in kinematic behaviour as well as the fusion among laser trackers.

Patient population management: taking the leap from variance analysis to outcomes measurement.

PubMed

Allen, K M

1998-01-01

Case managers today at BCHS have a somewhat different role than at the onset of the Collaborative Practice Model. They are seen throughout the organization as: Leaders/participants on cross-functional teams. Systems change agents. Integrating/merging with quality services and utilization management. Outcomes managers. One of the major cross-functional teams is in the process of designing a Care Coordinator role. These individuals will, as one of their functions, assume responsibility for daily patient care management activities. A variance tracking program has come into the Utilization Management (UM) department as part of a software package purchased to automate UM work activities. This variance program could potentially be used by the new care coordinators as the role develops. The case managers are beginning to use a Decision Support software, (Transition Systems Inc.) in the collection of data that is based on a cost accounting system and linked to clinical events. Other clinical outcomes data bases are now being used by the case manager to help with the collection and measurement of outcomes information. Hoshin planning will continue to be a framework for defining and setting the targets for clinical and financial improvements throughout the organization. Case managers will continue to be involved in many of these system-wide initiatives. In the words of Galileo, 1579, "You need to count what's countable, measure what's measurable, and what's not measurable, make measurable."

Job embeddedness and nurse retention.

PubMed

Reitz, O Ed; Anderson, Mary Ann; Hill, Pamela D

2010-01-01

Nurse retention is a different way of conceptualizing the employer-employee relationship when compared with turnover. Job embeddedness (JE), a construct based on retention, represents the sum of reasons why employees remain at their jobs. However, JE has not been investigated in relation to locale (urban or rural) or exclusively with a sample of registered nurses (RNs). The purpose of this study was to determine what factors (JE, age, gender, locale, and income) help predict nurse retention. A cross-sectional mailed survey design was used with RNs in different locales (urban or rural). Job embeddedness was measured by the score on the composite, standardized instrument. Nurse retention was measured by self-report items concerning intent to stay. A response rate of 49.3% was obtained. The typical respondent was female (96.1%), white, non-Hispanic (87.4%), and married (74.9%). Age and JE were predictive of nurse retention and accounted for 26% of the explained variance in intent to stay. Although age was a significant predictor of intent to stay, it accounted for only 1.4% of the variance while JE accounted for 24.6% of the variance of nurse retention (as measured by intent to stay). Older, more "embedded" nurses are more likely to remain employed in their current organization. Based on these findings, JE may form the basis for the development of an effective nurse retention program.

Quantum Approximate Methods for the Atomistic Modeling of Multicomponent Alloys. Chapter 7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bozzolo, Guillermo; Garces, Jorge; Mosca, Hugo; Gargano, pablo; Noebe, Ronald D.; Abel, Phillip

2007-01-01

This chapter describes the role of quantum approximate methods in the understanding of complex multicomponent alloys at the atomic level. The need to accelerate materials design programs based on economical and efficient modeling techniques provides the framework for the introduction of approximations and simplifications in otherwise rigorous theoretical schemes. As a promising example of the role that such approximate methods might have in the development of complex systems, the BFS method for alloys is presented and applied to Ru-rich Ni-base superalloys and also to the NiAI(Ti,Cu) system, highlighting the benefits that can be obtained from introducing simple modeling techniques to the investigation of such complex systems.

A global lightning parameterization based on statistical relationships among environmental factors, aerosols, and convective clouds in the TRMM climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolz, Douglas C.; Rutledge, Steven A.; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2017-07-01

The objective of this study is to determine the relative contributions of normalized convective available potential energy (NCAPE), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations, warm cloud depth (WCD), vertical wind shear (SHEAR), and environmental relative humidity (RH) to the variability of lightning and radar reflectivity within convective features (CFs) observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Our approach incorporates multidimensional binned representations of observations of CFs and modeled thermodynamics, kinematics, and CCN as inputs to develop approximations for total lightning density (TLD) and the average height of 30 dBZ radar reflectivity (AVGHT30). The results suggest that TLD and AVGHT30 increase with increasing NCAPE, increasing CCN, decreasing WCD, increasing SHEAR, and decreasing RH. Multiple-linear approximations for lightning and radar quantities using the aforementioned predictors account for significant portions of the variance in the binned data set (R2 ≈ 0.69-0.81). The standardized weights attributed to CCN, NCAPE, and WCD are largest, the standardized weight of RH varies relative to other predictors, while the standardized weight for SHEAR is comparatively small. We investigate these statistical relationships for collections of CFs within various geographic areas and compare the aerosol (CCN) and thermodynamic (NCAPE and WCD) contributions to variations in the CF population in a partial sensitivity analysis based on multiple-linear regression approximations computed herein. A global lightning parameterization is developed; the average difference between predicted and observed TLD decreases from +21.6 to +11.6% when using a hybrid approach to combine separate approximations over continents and oceans, thus highlighting the need for regionally targeted investigations in the future.

Spatial cognition and science achievement: The contribution of intrinsic and extrinsic spatial skills from 7 to 11 years.

PubMed

Hodgkiss, Alex; Gilligan, Katie A; Tolmie, Andrew K; Thomas, Michael S C; Farran, Emily K

2018-01-22

Prior longitudinal and correlational research with adults and adolescents indicates that spatial ability is a predictor of science learning and achievement. However, there is little research to date with primary-school aged children that addresses this relationship. Understanding this association has the potential to inform curriculum design and support the development of early interventions. This study examined the relationship between primary-school children's spatial skills and their science achievement. Children aged 7-11 years (N = 123) completed a battery of five spatial tasks, based on a model of spatial ability in which skills fall along two dimensions: intrinsic-extrinsic; static-dynamic. Participants also completed a curriculum-based science assessment. Controlling for verbal ability and age, mental folding (intrinsic-dynamic spatial ability), and spatial scaling (extrinsic-static spatial ability) each emerged as unique predictors of overall science scores, with mental folding a stronger predictor than spatial scaling. These spatial skills combined accounted for 8% of the variance in science scores. When considered by scientific discipline, mental folding uniquely predicted both physics and biology scores, and spatial scaling accounted for additional variance in biology and variance in chemistry scores. The children's embedded figures task (intrinsic-static spatial ability) only accounted for variance in chemistry scores. The patterns of association were consistent across the age range. Spatial skills, particularly mental folding, spatial scaling, and disembedding, are predictive of 7- to 11-year-olds' science achievement. These skills make a similar contribution to performance for each age group. © 2018 The Authors. British Journal of Education Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.

Observational Measures of Implementer Fidelity for a School-based Preventive Intervention: Development, Reliability and Validity

PubMed Central

Cross, Wendi; West, Jennifer; Wyman, Peter A.; Schmeelk-Cone, Karen; Xia, Yinglin; Tu, Xin; Teisl, Michael; Brown, C. Hendricks; Forgatch, Marion

2014-01-01

Current measures of implementer fidelity often fail to adequately measure core constructs of adherence and competence, and their relationship to outcomes can be mixed. To address these limitations, we used observational methods to assess these constructs and their relationships to proximal outcomes in a randomized trial of a school-based preventive intervention (Rochester Resilience Project) designed to strengthen emotion self-regulation skills in 1st–3rd graders with elevated aggressive-disruptive behaviors. Within the intervention group (n = 203), a subsample (n = 76) of students was selected to reflect the overall sample. Implementers were 10 paraprofessionals. Videotaped observations of three lessons from Year 1 of the intervention (14 lessons) were coded for each implementer-child dyad on Adherence (content) and Competence (quality). Using multi-level modeling we examined how much of the variance in the fidelity measures was attributed to implementer and to the child within implementer. Both measures had large and significant variance accounted for by implementer (Competence, 68%; Adherence, 41%); child within implementer did not account for significant variance indicating that ratings reflected stable qualities of the implementer rather than the child. Raw Adherence and Competence scores shared 46% of variance (r = .68). Controlling for baseline differences and age, the amount (Adherence) and quality (Competence) of program delivered predicted children’s enhanced response to the intervention on both child and parent reports after six months, but not on teacher report of externalizing behavior. Our findings support the use of multiple observations for measuring fidelity and that adherence and competence are important components of fidelity which could be assessed by many programs using these methods. PMID:24736951

A Measure Approximation for Distributionally Robust PDE-Constrained Optimization Problems

DOE PAGES

Kouri, Drew Philip

2017-12-19

In numerous applications, scientists and engineers acquire varied forms of data that partially characterize the inputs to an underlying physical system. This data is then used to inform decisions such as controls and designs. Consequently, it is critical that the resulting control or design is robust to the inherent uncertainties associated with the unknown probabilistic characterization of the model inputs. Here in this work, we consider optimal control and design problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain inputs. We do not assume a known probabilistic model for the inputs, but rather we formulate the problem as a distributionally robustmore » optimization problem where the outer minimization problem determines the control or design, while the inner maximization problem determines the worst-case probability measure that matches desired characteristics of the data. We analyze the inner maximization problem in the space of measures and introduce a novel measure approximation technique, based on the approximation of continuous functions, to discretize the unknown probability measure. Finally, we prove consistency of our approximated min-max problem and conclude with numerical results.« less

Design, fabrication and testing of an optical temperature sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morey, W. W.; Glenn, W. H.; Decker, R. O.; Mcclurg, W. C.

1980-01-01

The laboratory breadboard optical temperature sensor based on the temperature dependent absorptive characteristics of a rare earth (europium) doped optical fiber. The principles of operation, materials characterization, fiber and optical component design, design and fabrication of an electrooptic interface unit, signal processing, and initial test results are discussed. Initial tests indicated that, after a brief warmup period, the output of the sensor was stable to approximately 1 C at room temperature or approximately + or - 0.3 percent of point (K). This exceeds the goal of 1 percent of point. Recommendations are presented for further performance improvement.

[Design and validation of a scale to assess Latin American medical students' perception on the labour of the first level of health care].

PubMed

Mayta-Tristán, Percy; Mezones-Holguín, Edward; Pereyra-Elías, Reneé; Montenegro-Idrogo, Juan J; Mejia, Christian R; Dulanto-Pizzorni, Andrés; Muñoz, Sergio R

2013-04-01

To design and validate a scale to assess Latin American medical students' perception on first level of health care (FLHC). An observational, analytic and multicentre study was carried out in two phases: i) A self-administered questionnaire regarding perceptions on FLHClabor was designed. ii) This questionnaire was applied to to medical students from 18 universities of eight Spanish-speaking Latin American countries. An exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was performed through a principal components analysis with orthogonal varimax rotation. Sample adequacy was evaluated. Factor extraction was based on Kaiser's criteria, Cattell's Scree test and the explained variance (>5%). Internal consistency was measured with Cronbach's alpha. 423 students were included in the analysis; 53.4% were from Peruvian universities. After the EFA, the questionnaire conserved 11 items, which were distributed in three domains, that explaining together 55.47% of the total variance: i) Perceptions concerning the FLHC physician; ii) Perceptions concerning the FiLC labor and iii) Perceptions about the economic consequences of working in FLHC. The scale is composed by three domains and can be used to assess the perceptions of the medical work on first level of health care of Spanish-speaking Latin American medical students.

Sensitivity analysis, approximate analysis, and design optimization for internal and external viscous flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Arthur C., III; Hou, Gene W.; Korivi, Vamshi M.

1991-01-01

A gradient-based design optimization strategy for practical aerodynamic design applications is presented, which uses the 2D thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations. The strategy is based on the classic idea of constructing different modules for performing the major tasks such as function evaluation, function approximation and sensitivity analysis, mesh regeneration, and grid sensitivity analysis, all driven and controlled by a general-purpose design optimization program. The accuracy of aerodynamic shape sensitivity derivatives is validated on two viscous test problems: internal flow through a double-throat nozzle and external flow over a NACA 4-digit airfoil. A significant improvement in aerodynamic performance has been achieved in both cases. Particular attention is given to a consistent treatment of the boundary conditions in the calculation of the aerodynamic sensitivity derivatives for the classic problems of external flow over an isolated lifting airfoil on 'C' or 'O' meshes.

Design Process for High Speed Civil Transport Aircraft Improved by Neural Network and Regression Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hopkins, Dale A.

1998-01-01

A key challenge in designing the new High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft is determining a good match between the airframe and engine. Multidisciplinary design optimization can be used to solve the problem by adjusting parameters of both the engine and the airframe. Earlier, an example problem was presented of an HSCT aircraft with four mixed-flow turbofan engines and a baseline mission to carry 305 passengers 5000 nautical miles at a cruise speed of Mach 2.4. The problem was solved by coupling NASA Lewis Research Center's design optimization testbed (COMETBOARDS) with NASA Langley Research Center's Flight Optimization System (FLOPS). The computing time expended in solving the problem was substantial, and the instability of the FLOPS analyzer at certain design points caused difficulties. In an attempt to alleviate both of these limitations, we explored the use of two approximation concepts in the design optimization process. The two concepts, which are based on neural network and linear regression approximation, provide the reanalysis capability and design sensitivity analysis information required for the optimization process. The HSCT aircraft optimization problem was solved by using three alternate approaches; that is, the original FLOPS analyzer and two approximate (derived) analyzers. The approximate analyzers were calibrated and used in three different ranges of the design variables; narrow (interpolated), standard, and wide (extrapolated).