The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

PubMed

Sagoo, Navjit; Valdes, Paul; Flecker, Rachel; Gregoire, Lauren J

2013-10-28

Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

Causes and implications of the growing divergence between climate model simulations and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, Judith

2014-03-01

For the past 15+ years, there has been no increase in global average surface temperature, which has been referred to as a 'hiatus' in global warming. By contrast, estimates of expected warming in the first several decades of 21st century made by the IPCC AR4 were 0.2C/decade. This talk summarizes the recent CMIP5 climate model simulation results and comparisons with observational data. The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level. Potential causes for the model-observation discrepancies are discussed. A particular focus of the talk is the role of multi-decadal natural internal variability on the climate variability of the 20th and early 21st centuries. The ``stadium wave'' climate signal is described, which propagates across the Northern Hemisphere through a network of ocean, ice, and atmospheric circulation regimes that self-organize into a collective tempo. The stadium wave hypothesis provides a plausible explanation for the hiatus in warming and helps explain why climate models did not predict this hiatus. Further, the new hypothesis suggests how long the hiatus might last. Implications of the hiatus are discussed in context of climate model sensitivity to CO2 forcing and attribution of the warming that was observed in the last quarter of the 20th century.

Evaluation of Global Observations-Based Evapotranspiration Datasets and IPCC AR4 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Jimenez, C.; Corti, T.; Hirschi, M.; Balsamo, G.; Ciais, P.; Dirmeyer, P.; Fisher, J. B.; Guo, Z.;

Coupled Long-Term Evolution of Climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial and Implications for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lofverstrom, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.

2017-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is expected to contribute increasingly to global sea level rise by the end of this century, and potentially several meters in this millennium, but still with considerable uncertainty. The rate of Greenland melt will impact on regional sea levels. The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129 ka to 116 ka) is recognized as an important period for testing our knowledge of climate-ice sheet interactions in warm climate states. Although the LIG was discussed in the First Assessment Report of the IPCC, it gained more prominence in the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment (AR4 and AR5) with reconstructions highlighting that global mean sea level was at least 5 m higher (but probably no more than 10 m higher) than present for several thousand years during the LIG. Model results assessed for the AR5 suggest a sea level contribution of 1.4 to 4.3 m from the GrIS. These model simulations, though, did not include all the feedbacks of the climate system and the GrIS. Here, we examine the response of the Arctic climate system and the GrIS in simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) fully coupled to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), using a surface energy balance scheme and without bias corrections. The analysis focuses on how the GrIS responds to the imposed high boreal summer insolation of the LIG and in addition, to the long-term feedbacks of high-latitude vegetation changes. Results will highlight the evolution of the ice sheet and the surface mass balance (patterns of ablation and accumulation) as compared to data-based reconstructions for the LIG. We conclude with a discussion on how the LIG may be informative as a potential process analogue for the GrIS response for future centuries to come.

Towards the Prediction of Decadal to Centennial Climate Processes in the Coupled Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Zhengyu; Kutzbach, J.; Jacob, R.

2011-12-05

In this proposal, we have made major advances in the understanding of decadal and long term climate variability. (a) We performed a systematic study of multidecadal climate variability in FOAM-LPJ and CCSM-T31, and are starting exploring decadal variability in the IPCC AR4 models. (b) We develop several novel methods for the assessment of climate feedbacks in the observation. (c) We also developed a new initialization scheme DAI (Dynamical Analogue Initialization) for ensemble decadal prediction. (d) We also studied climate-vegetation feedback in the observation and models. (e) Finally, we started a pilot program using Ensemble Kalman Filter in CGCM for decadalmore » climate prediction.« less

Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/ SFRH/BPD/84328/2012). The financial support for attending this workshop was also possible through FCT project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz.

Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinoza, Vicky; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin; Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin

2018-05-01

A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be 10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be 25% longer, 25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: 50% (25%) globally, 50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and 60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency ( 10%), zonal IVT ( 15%), and meridional IVT ( 25%), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Hydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin based on an ensemble derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fubao; Roderick, Michael L.; Lim, Wee Ho; Farquhar, Graham D.

2011-12-01

We assess hydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) using an ensemble of 39 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model runs based on the A1B emissions scenario. The raw model output for precipitation, P, was adjusted using a quantile-based bias correction approach. We found that the projected change, ΔP, between two 30 year periods (2070-2099 less 1970-1999) was little affected by bias correction. The range for ΔP among models was large (˜±150 mm yr-1) with all-model run and all-model ensemble averages (4.9 and -8.1 mm yr-1) near zero, against a background climatological P of ˜500 mm yr-1. We found that the time series of actually observed annual P over the MDB was indistinguishable from that generated by a purely random process. Importantly, nearly all the model runs showed similar behavior. We used these facts to develop a new approach to understanding variability in projections of ΔP. By plotting ΔP versus the variance of the time series, we could easily identify model runs with projections for ΔP that were beyond the bounds expected from purely random variations. For the MDB, we anticipate that a purely random process could lead to differences of ±57 mm yr-1 (95% confidence) between successive 30 year periods. This is equivalent to ±11% of the climatological P and translates into variations in runoff of around ±29%. This sets a baseline for gauging modeled and/or observed changes.

Advanced Large Scale Cross Domain Temporal Topic Modeling Algorithms to Infer the Influence of Recent Research on IPCC Assessment Reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeman, J.; Halem, M.; Finin, T.; Cane, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately every five years dating back to 1989, thousands of climate scientists, research centers and government labs volunteer to prepare comprehensive Assessment Reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These are highly curated reports distributed to 200 nation policy makers. There have been five IPCC Assessment Reports to date, the latest leading to a Paris Agreement in Dec. 2016 signed thus far by 172 nations to limit the amount of global Greenhouse gases emitted to producing no more than a 20 C warming of the atmosphere. These reports are a living evolving big data collection tracing 30 years of climate science research, observations, and model scenario intercomparisons. They contain more than 200,000 citations over a 30 year period that trace the evolution of the physical basis of climate science, the observed and predicted impact, risk and adaptation to increased greenhouse gases and mitigation approaches, pathways, policies for climate change. Document-topic and topic-term probability distributions are built from the vocabularies of the respective assessment report chapters and citations. Using Microsoft Bing, we retrieve 150,000 citations referenced across chapters and convert those citations to text. Using a word n-gram model based on a heterogeneous set of climate change terminology, lemmatization, noise filtering and stopword elimination, we calculate word frequencies for chapters and citations. Temporal document sets are built based on the assessment period. In addition to topic modeling, we employ cross domain correlation measures. Using the Jensen-Shannon divergence and Pearson correlation we build correlation matrices for chapter and citations topics. The shared vocabulary acts as the bridge between domains resulting in chapter-citation point pairs in space. Pairs are established based on a document-topic probability distribution. Each chapter and citation is associated with a vector of topics and based on the n most probable topics, we establish which chapter-citation pairs are most similar. We will perform posterior inferences based on Hastings -Metropolis simulated annealing MCMC algorithm to infer, from the evolution of topics starting from AR1 to AR4, assertions of topics for AR5 and potentially AR6.

Introducing Subgrid-scale convective cloud and aerosol interactions to the WRF-CMAQ integrated modeling system

EPA Science Inventory

Many regional and global climate models include aerosol indirect effects (AIE) on grid-scale/resolved clouds. However, the interaction between aerosols and convective clouds remains highly uncertain, as noted in the IPCC AR4 report. The objective of this work is to help fill in ...

End-of-century projections of North American atmospheric river events in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.

2013-12-01

Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with narrow plumes of above-average water vapor concentration that stretch from the tropics or subtropics to the West Coast. These events generally occur during the wet season (October-March) and are referred to as atmospheric rivers (AR). ARs can cause major river management problems, damage from flooding or landslides, and loss of life. It is expected that anthropogenic global warming could lead to changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere, such as Hadley Cell expansion and jet stream and storm track shifts. Since AR events are associated with cyclonic activity that originates near and propagates along the jet stream, the jet stream configuration influences the frequency and location of AR landfall along the North American west coast. Therefore, it is probable that any changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere will result in changes in the frequency, orientation, and location of AR landfalls. Generally, along the West Coast, CMIP5 models predict increases in integrated water vapor and precipitation, and little change in low-level wind associated with AR events. In this study, CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models and high resolution regional climate models are used to analyze predicted changes in frequency and location of AR events impacting the West Coast from the contemporary period (1970-1999) to the end of this century (2070-2099).

Evaluation of Drought Occurrence and Climate Change in the Pearl River Basin in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DU, Y.; Chen, J.; Wang, K.; Shi, H.

2015-12-01

This study uses the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model to simulate the hydrological processes over the Pearl River basin in South China. The observed streamflow data in the Pearl River Basin for the period 1951-2000 are used to evaluate the model simulation results. Further, in this study, the 55 datasets of climate projection from 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the IPCC AR4 (SRES A2/A1B/B1) and AR5 (RCP 2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5) are used to drive the VIC model at 0.5°× 0.5°spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. Then, the monthly Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) are generated to detect the drought occurrence. This study validates the GCMs projection through comparing the observed precipitation for the period of 2000-2013. Then, spatial variation of the frequency change of moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought are analyzed for the 21st century. The study reveals that the frequencies of severe drought and extreme drought occurrences over the Pearl River Basin increase along with time. Specifically, for the scenario of AR5 RCP 8.5, the east and west parts of the Pearl River Basin most likely suffer from severe drought and extreme drought with an increased frequency throughout the 21st century.

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

2007-01-01

This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

Atmospheric Rivers in VR-CESM: Historical Comparison and Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClenny, E. E.; Ullrich, P. A.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for most of the horizontal vapor transport from the tropics, and bring upwards of half the annual precipitation to midlatitude west coasts. The difference between a drought year and a wet year can come down to 1-2 ARs. Such few events transform an otherwise arid region into one which supports remarkable biodiversity, productive agriculture, and booming human populations. It follows that such a sensitive hydroclimate feature would demand priority in evaluating end-of-century climate runs, and indeed, the AR subfield has grown significantly over the last decade. However, results tend to vary wildly from study to study, raising questions about how to best approach ARs in models. The disparity may result from any number of issues, including the ability for a model to properly resolve a precipitating AR, to the formulation and application of an AR detection algorithm. ARs pose a unique problem in global climate models (GCMs) computationally and physically, because the GCM horizontal grid must be fine enough to resolve coastal mountain range topography and force orographic precipitation. Thus far, most end-of-century projections on ARs have been performed on models whose grids are too coarse to resolve mountain ranges, causing authors to draw conclusions on AR intensity from water vapor content or transport alone. The use of localized grid refinement in the Variable Resolution version of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) has succeeded in resolving AR landfall. This study applies an integrated water vapor AR detection algorithm to historical and future projections from VR-CESM, with historical ARs validated against NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications. Results on end-of-century precipitating AR frequency, intensity, and landfall location will be discussed.

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE PAGES

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.; ...

2015-11-17

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Climatological Impact of Atmospheric River Based on NARCCAP and DRI-RCM Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejia, J. F.; Perryman, N. M.

2012-12-01

This study evaluates spatial responses of extreme precipitation environments, typically associated with Atmospheric River events, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output from NARCCAP dataset (50km grid size) and the Desert Research Institute-RCM simulations (36 and 12 km grid size). For this study, a pattern-detection algorithm was developed to characterize Atmospheric Rivers (ARs)-like features from climate models. Topological analysis of the enhanced elongated moisture flux (500-300hPa; daily means) cores is used to objectively characterize such AR features in two distinct groups: (i) zonal, north Pacific ARs, and (ii) subtropical ARs, also known as "Pineapple Express" events. We computed the climatological responses of the different RCMs upon these two AR groups, from which intricate differences among RCMs stand out. This study presents these climatological responses from historical and scenario driven simulations, as well as implications for precipitation extreme-value analyses.

End-of-Century Projections of North American Atmospheric River Events in CMIP5 Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.

2014-12-01

Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with narrow plumes of above-average water vapor concentration that stretch from the tropics or subtropics to the West Coast. These events generally occur during the wet season (October-March) and are referred to as atmospheric rivers (AR). ARs can cause major river management problems, damage from flooding or landslides, and loss of life. It is expected that anthropogenic global warming could lead to thermodynamic and dynamic changes in the atmosphere, such as increases in water vapor content and, thus, precipitation, and shifts in the climatological jet stream. Since AR events are associated with extreme values of integrated water vapor (IWV) near the West Coast, increases in IWV could impact the intensity of AR events intersecting the coast. Additionally, ARs are associated with cyclonic activity that originates near and propagates along the jet stream. The jet stream configuration influences the frequency and location of AR landfall along the North American west coast. It is probable that any changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere will result in changes in the frequency, orientation, and location of AR landfalls. Global climate models have sufficient resolution to simulate synoptic features associated with AR events, such as high values of vertically integrated vapor transport (IVT) approaching the coast. Ten Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations are used to identify changes in ARs impacting the west coast of North America between historical (1970-1999) and end-of-century (2070-2099) runs, using representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The most extreme ARs are identified in both time periods by the 99th percentile of IVT days along a north-south transect offshore of the coast. Integrated water vapor (IWV) and IVT are predicted to increase, while lower-tropospheric winds change little. Winter-mean precipitation along the West Coast increases by 11-18% (4-6% C-1) while precipitation on extreme IVT days increases by 15-39% (5-19% C-1). The frequency of IVT days above the historical 99th percentile threshold increases as much as 290% by the end of this century.

Assessing Climate Change Risks Using a Multi-Model Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Scholze, M.; Prentice, C.

2007-12-01

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from the IPCC AR4 data archive using 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply or shifts in vegetation cover. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios. Instead, we consider the distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped according to the amount of global warming they simulate: < 2 degree C (including committed climate change simulations), 2-3 degree C, and >3 degree C. Here, we are contrasting two different methods for calculating the risks: first we use an equal weighting approach giving every model within one of the three sets the same weight, and second, we weight the models according to their ability to model ENSO. The differences are underpinning the need for the development of more robust performance metrics for global climate models.

Atmospheric Rivers in the Mid-latitudes: A Modeling Study for Current and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shields, C. A.; Kiehl, J. T.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are dynamically-driven narrow intense bands of moisture that transport significant amounts of moisture from the tropics to mid-latitudes and are thus an important aspect the Earth's hydrological cycle. They are often associated with extratropical cyclones whose low level circulation is able to tap into tropical moisture and transport it northward. The "Pineapple Express" is an example of an AR that impacts the west coast of California predominately in the winter months and can produce heavy amounts of precipitation in a short period of time (hours up to several days). This work will focus on three mid-latitude AR regions including the west coast of California, the Pacific Northwest, and the United Kingdom as modeled by a suite of high-resolution CESM (Community Earth System Model) simulations for 20th century and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. The CESM version employed utilizes half-degree resolution atmosphere/land components (~0.5o) coupled to the standard (1o) ocean/ice components. We use the high-resolution atmosphere because it is able to more accurately represent extreme, regional precipitation. CESM realistically captures ARs as spatial and temporal statistics show. Projections for future climate statistics for all three regions as well as analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms driving ARs, such as vorticity, jets and the steering flow, and water vapor transport, and will presented. Finally, teleconnections to climate variability processes, such as ENSO will be explored.

Paleoclimate change in the Nakuru basin, Kenya, at 119 - 109 ka derived from δ18Odiatom and diatom assemblages and 40Ar/39Ar geochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergner, Andreas; Deino, Alan; Leng, Melanie; Gasse, Francoise

2016-04-01

A 4.5m-thick diatomite bed deposited during the cold interval of the penultimate interglacial at ~119 - 109 ka documents a period in which a deep freshwater lake filled the Nakuru basin in the Central Kenya Rift (CKR), East Africa. Palaeohydrological conditions of the basin are reconstructed for the paleolake highstand using δ18Odiatom and characterization of diatom assemblages. The age of the diatomite deposit is established by precise 40Ar/39Ar-dating of intercalated pumice tuffs. The paleolake experienced multiple hydrological fluctuations on sub-orbital (~1,500 to 2,000 years) time scales. The magnitude of the δ18Odiatom change (+/- 3‰) and significant changes in the plankton-littoral ratio of the diatom assemblage (+/- 25%) suggest that the paleolake record can be interpreted in the context of long-term climatic change in East Africa. Using 40Ar/39Ar age control and nominal diatomite-sedimentation rates we establish a simplified age model of paleohydrological vs. climatic change, from which we conclude that more humid conditions prevailed in equatorial East Africa during the late Pleistocene over a relatively long time interval of several thousands years. Then, extreme insolation at eccentricity maximum and weakened zonal air-pressure gradients in the tropics favored intensified ITCZ-like convection over East Africa and deep-freshwater lake conditions.

Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph

Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content.more » This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.« less

Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

DOE PAGES

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph; ...

2014-12-08

Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content.more » This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.« less

Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh

2014-01-01

Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has the geographic distribution of authors contributing to the knowledge base for climate change assessments. Authorship of climate change publications from developing countries has increased, although it still represents a small fraction of the total. The unequal distribution of publications presents a challenge to the production of a comprehensive and balanced global assessment.

A multiple-approach radiometric age estimate for the Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruptions, New Zealand, with implications for the MIS 4/3 boundary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, C.J.N.; Rhoades, D.A.; Lanphere, M.A.; Calvert, A.T.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Weaver, S.D.; Cole, J.W.

2007-01-01

Pyroclastic fall deposits of the paired Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruptions from the Taupo Volcanic Zone (New Zealand) combine to form a widespread isochronous horizon over much of northern New Zealand and the southwest Pacific. This horizon is important for correlating climatic and environmental changes during the Last Glacial period, but has been the subject of numerous disparate age estimates between 35.1??2.8 and 71??6 ka (all errors are 1 s.d.), obtained by a variety of techniques. A potassium-argon (K-Ar) age of 64??4 ka was previously determined on bracketing lavas at Mayor Island volcano, offshore from the Taupo Volcanic Zone. We present a new, more-precise 40Ar/39Ar age determination on a lava flow on Mayor Island, that shortly post-dates the Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat fall deposits, of 58.5??1.1 ka. This value, coupled with existing ages from underlying lavas, yield a new estimate for the age of the combined eruptions of 61.0??1.4 ka, which is consistent with U-Th disequilibrium model-age data for zircons from the Rotoiti deposits. Direct 40Ar/39Ar age determinations of plagioclase and biotite from the Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruption products yield variable values between 49.6??2.8 and 125.3??10.0 ka, with the scatter attributed to low radiogenic Ar yields, and/or alteration, and/or inheritance of xenocrystic material with inherited Ar. Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat fall deposits occur in New Zealand in association with palynological indicators of mild climate, attributed to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and thus used to suggest an age that is post-59 ka. The natures of the criteria used to define the MIS 4/3 boundary in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, however, imply that the new 61 ka age for the Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat eruption deposits will provide the inverse, namely, a more accurate isochronous marker for correlating diverse changes across the MIS 4/3 boundary in the southwest Pacific. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early Pleistocene climate cycles in continental deposits of the Lesser Caucasus of Armenia inferred from palynology, magnetostratigraphy, and 40Ar/39Ar dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joannin, Sebastien; Cornée, Jean-Jacques; Münch, Philippe; Fornari, Michel; Krijgsman, Wout; Nahapetyan, Samuel; Gabrielyan, Ivan; Ollivier, Vincent; Roiron, Paul; Chataignier, Christine

2010-05-01

The Lesser Caucasus in Armenia is an active volcanic and tectonic zone which resulted from the collision of the Arabian and the Eurasian plates since Neogene times. The During Quaternary, Lesser Caucasus was uplifted (0.3 mm/yr; Mitchell and Westaway, 1999) and experienced extensional tectonics times. Large lakes developed in graben structures. The diatomitic sequences of the Shamb paleo-lake (South Armenia) offer a rare opportunity to give new insights of Western Asia paleo-climate. Based on macroflora analysis, Bruch and Gabrielyan (2002) proposed a cooling and drying general climate trend through Pleistocene times in relation with a general uplift of the chain. Several questions have to be answer for this poorly investigated region. Did the climate record humid glacials and arid interglacials as suggested northward in Kazakhstan? What are the vegetation and climate responses to orbital parameters and to the monsoon? Moreover the lesser Caucasus is known as the entrance way used by the first hominids in Eurasia during Pleistocene time. How was the environment at this time? We present an integrated palynological, 40Ar/39Ar isotopic and magnetostratigraphic study for the most complete section (Joannin et al., in press). 40Ar/39Ar dating of two volcaniclastic layers provided ages of 1.24 ± 0.03 and 1.16 ± 0.02 Ma. Magnetostratigraphic data show that the entire Shamb section is of reversed polarity which correlates with part of the Matuyama period (1.785-1.070 Ma). Pollen assemblages and macroremains diversity revealed an alternation of glacial and interglacial phases that are compared with climate changes inferred from the global isotopic curve. The Shamb section ranges from approximately 1.300 to 1.080 Ma in age (marine isotopic stages 40 to 31). The vegetation of the Lesser Caucasus developed in a mosaic pattern in a Pleistocene continental, mostly arid climate, similar to the present-day climate. The vegetation changes record a dominant climate response to the obliquity orbital parameter. The influence of precession could not be established from the Shamb data. Pollen and macroflora both indicate that glacial periods were cold and dry and that interglacials were warm with local humidity. The early Pleistocene climatic model for Western Asia is thus similar to the climatic model for the Mediterranean area. Bruch, A., Gabrielyan, I.G., 2002. Quantitative data of the Neogene climatic development in Armenia and Nakhichevan. Acta Universitatis Carolinae - Geologica 46, 41-48. Joannin, S., Cornée, J.J., Münch, P., Fornari, M., Vasiliev, J., Krijgsman, W., Nahapetyan, S., Gabrielyan, Y., Ollivier, V., Roiron, P., Chataignier, C. In press. Early Pleistocene climatic cycles in continental deposits of the Lesser Caucasus of Armenia inferred from palynology, magnetostratigraphy, and 40Ar/39Ar dating. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. Mitchell, J., Westaway, R., 1999. Chronology of Neogene and Quaternary uplift and magmatism in the Caucasus: constraints from K-Ar dating of volcanism in Armenia. Tectonophysics 304, 157-186.

Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

2018-03-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

Climate of the past 2000 years in IPCC AR5 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, V.

2013-12-01

Different aspects of the climate of the past 2000 years are covered in several chapters of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including information from paleoclimate archives, changes in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles, changes in sea level, climate model evaluation and detection and attribution. This presentation will summarize the main findings regarding pre-industrial changes in radiative forcings, reconstructed and simulated temperature variations at the hemispheric and regional scales, as well as global sea level for the past 2000 years, in the perspective of the current and earlier interglacial periods.

Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.

2006-01-01

The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset.

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

PubMed Central

Lorenz, David J.; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950–2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850–2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity. PMID:27377537

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

PubMed

Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

2016-07-05

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

Response of the oceanic methane hydrate inventory to future climate change (AR5 RCP 4.5 - 8.5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A. J.; Rees, J.

2012-12-01

We present results from a study designed to look at the change in global methane hydrate volume in response to AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (Fifth Assessment Report RCP). We use bottom water conditions derived from 12 climate models within the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble along with a series of linear sea-level models to define boundary conditions. We model the change in global hydrate stability zone volume and hydrate inventory from the pre-industrial era and forward model through the RCP scenarios (to 2100 and 2300) to 5 kyr into the future. We find that thermal effects (i.e. warming induced hydrate dissociation) are dominant even when accompanied by extreme rates of sea level rise (i.e. 15 and 20 mm yr-1). Over the coming century dissociation is focussed within the top 100 m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments, beneath < ˜500 m water depth. Assuming a simple model of hydrate fill fraction (with a nominal 1% average hydrate-fill fraction) estimated globally integrated hydrate dissociation rates at ˜2100 are 120, 140 and 180 Tg CH4 yr-1 for RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 and at year ˜2300 are 150 and 600 Tg CH4 yr-1 under ECP 4.5 and 8.5 respectively. Under the unmitigated business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5) globally-integrated CH4 fluxes from hydrate dissociation could exceed estimates of natural sea-floor levels by 2100. Subsequent oxidation of resulting CH4 within the water column would significantly reduce atmospheric release rates to between ˜0.7 and ˜1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1 at ˜2100.

Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline from 2015 (CAN International 2014), and if policy makers are limited to the IPCC AR5 we recommend RCP2.6, with emissions declining by 2020.

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Can we model observed soil carbon changes from a dense inventory? A case study over England and Wales using three versions of the ORCHIDEE ecosystem model (AR5, AR5-PRIM and O-CN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenet, B.; Moyano, F. E.; Vuichard, N.; Kirk, G. J. D.; Bellamy, P. H.; Zaehle, S.; Ciais, P.

2013-12-01

A widespread decrease of the topsoil carbon content was observed over England and Wales during the period 1978-2003 in the National Soil Inventory (NSI), amounting to a carbon loss of 4.44 Tg yr-1 over 141 550 km2. Subsequent modelling studies have shown that changes in temperature and precipitation could only account for a small part of the observed decrease, and therefore that changes in land use and management and resulting changes in heterotrophic respiration or net primary productivity were the main causes. So far, all the models used to reproduce the NSI data have not accounted for plant-soil interactions and have only been soil carbon models with carbon inputs forced by data. Here, we use three different versions of a process-based coupled soil-vegetation model called ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), in order to separate the effect of trends in soil carbon input from soil carbon mineralization induced by climate trends over 1978-2003. The first version of the model (ORCHIDEE-AR5), used for IPCC-AR5 CMIP5 Earth System simulations, is based on three soil carbon pools defined with first-order decomposition kinetics, as in the CENTURY model. The second version (ORCHIDEE-AR5-PRIM) built for this study includes a relationship between litter carbon and decomposition rates, to reproduce a priming effect on decomposition. The last version (O-CN) takes into account N-related processes. Soil carbon decomposition in O-CN is based on CENTURY, but adds N limitations on litter decomposition. We performed regional gridded simulations with these three versions of the ORCHIDEE model over England and Wales. None of the three model versions was able to reproduce the observed NSI soil carbon trend. This suggests either that climate change is not the main driver for observed soil carbon losses or that the ORCHIDEE model even with priming or N effects on decomposition lacks the basic mechanisms to explain soil carbon change in response to climate, which would raise a caution flag about the ability of this type of model to project soil carbon changes in response to future warming. A third possible explanation could be that the NSI measurements made on the topsoil are not representative of the total soil carbon losses integrated over the entire soil depth, and thus cannot be compared with the model output.

Can we model observed soil carbon changes from a dense inventory? A case study over england and wales using three version of orchidee ecosystem model (AR5, AR5-PRIM and O-CN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenet, B.; Moyano, F. E.; Vuichard, N.; Kirk, G. J. D.; Bellamy, P. H.; Zaehle, S.; Ciais, P.

2013-07-01

A widespread decrease of the top soil carbon content was observed over England and Wales during the period 1978-2003 in the National Soil Inventory (NSI), amounting to a carbon loss of 4.44 Tg yr-1 over 141 550 km2. Subsequent modelling studies have shown that changes in temperature and precipitation could only account for a small part of the observed decrease, and therefore that changes in land use and management and resulting changes in soil respiration or primary production were the main causes. So far, all the models used to reproduce the NSI data did not account for plant-soil interactions and were only soil carbon models with carbon inputs forced by data. Here, we use three different versions of a process-based coupled soil-vegetation model called ORCHIDEE, in order to separate the effect of trends in soil carbon input, and soil carbon mineralisation induced by climate trends over 1978-2003. The first version of the model (ORCHIDEE-AR5) used for IPCC-AR5 CMIP5 Earth System simulations, is based on three soil carbon pools defined with first order decomposition kinetics, as in the CENTURY model. The second version (ORCHIDEE-AR5-PRIM) built for this study includes a relationship between litter carbon and decomposition rates, to reproduce a priming effect on decomposition. The last version (O-CN) takes into account N-related processes. Soil carbon decomposition in O-CN is based on CENTURY, but adds N limitations on litter decomposition. We performed regional gridded simulations with these three versions of the ORCHIDEE model over England and Wales. None of the three model versions was able to reproduce the observed NSI soil carbon trend. This suggests that either climate change is not the main driver for observed soil carbon losses, or that the ORCHIDEE model even with priming or N-effects on decomposition lacks the basic mechanisms to explain soil carbon change in response to climate, which would raise a caution flag about the ability of this type of model to project soil carbon changes in response to future warming. A third possible explanation could be that the NSI measurements made on the topsoil are not representative of the total soil carbon losses integrated over the entire soil depth, and thus cannot be compared with the model output.

Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statisticalmore » analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.« less

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

PubMed

Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-09-06

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

The cloud-radiative forcing of the U.S. landfalling atmospheric rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qianwen

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow channels in the atmosphere that transport an enormous amount of moisture from the tropics to the higher latitudes. Streaks of highly reflective clouds are observed along with the ARs in satellite imagery. These clouds both influence the moisture transport of ARs, as well as modify the Earth-Atmospheric energy budget through pathways such as cloud-radiative forcing (CRF). This dissertation studies the CRF of the U.S. Landfalling ARs in weather and climate scales. Three crucial questions are addressed. First, how do clouds produced by the ARs modulate the moisture and heat balance of the Earth-Atmospheric system? Even though studies of ARs date back to the 90s, past research has been primarily focused on their hydrological impacts. We addressed this research gap by comparing the dominant types of precipitating clouds and convection of two ARs. Through quantifying their effects on the energy balance in the midlatitudes, we found that when deep convection was the dominant cloud types of an AR, impressive CRF cooling was produced. Second, what are the sufficient climate conditions for the extensive CRF in the continental U.S.? We studied 60 ARs that reached the California coast (the Southwest ARs) and 60 ARs that reached Pacific Northwest during Nov-Mar, 2000-2008. It was found that when these West-Coast ARs were followed by the moisture surge from the Gulf of Mexico (the Gulf-Coast AR), it resulted in apparent statewide CRF. Such condition happened more frequently in the Southwest-AR scenario. Third, how does the subgrid-scale-convection-induced CRF influence the moisture transport of ARs?We ran two WRF ARW simulations for a Southwest-AR that was followed by a Gulf-Coast AR. The only difference between the two simulations was one considered the CRF of subgrid-scale clouds while the other did not. By comparing the two simulations, we found that the subgrid-scale-convection-induced CRF helped prolong the lifespan of clouds in an AR, thus enabling moisture to be transported further downstream. In short, this work helps improve our understanding of CRF of the U.S. landfalling ARs from both weather and climate perspectives. Our results are useful for validating the representation of clouds and radiation processes in weather and climate models, thereby help to improve AR predictions.

Development of new impact functions for global risk caused by climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyazaki, C.

2014-12-01

The purpose of our study is to identify and quantify global-scale risks which can be caused by future climate change. In particular, we focus on the global-scale risks which have critical impacts to human environments. Use of impact functions is one of the common way to quantify global-scale risks. Output of impact function is climate impacts (e.g. economic damage by temperature increasing) and input can be global temperature increasing and/or socioeconomic condition (e.g. GDP). As the first step of study, we referred to AR5 WG II report (AR5, hereafter) and comprehensive inventories of climate change risks developed by Strategic R&D Area Project of the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (ICA-RUS project). Then we extracted information which can be used to develop impact function from them. By following SPM/AR5, we focused on 11 sectors and extracted quantitative description on climate impacts from the AR5 and paper/reports cited in AR5. As a result, we identified about 40 risk items to focus as global-scale risks by climate change. Using the collected information, we tentatively made impact function on sea level rise and so on. In addition, we also extracted the impact functions used in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). The literature survey on IAM suggested the risk items considered in IAMs are limited. For instance, although FUND model provides detailed impact functions compared with most of other IAMs, its impact functions deal with only several sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, sea level rise, human health, energy demand and water resources). The survey on impact functions in IAMs also suggested impact function for abrupt climate change (so-called Tipping Element) is premature. Moreover, as example for quantifying health risk by our calculation, we also present the result on global-scale projection of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition (Ishida et al., 2014, ERL).

Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Wuenschel, Mark J.; Kimball, Matthew E.

2012-01-01

We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species. PMID:23284974

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC ARS Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...

A Defence of the AR4’s Bayesian Approach to Quantifying Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vezer, M. A.

2009-12-01

The field of climate change research is a kimberlite pipe filled with philosophic diamonds waiting to be mined and analyzed by philosophers. Within the scientific literature on climate change, there is much philosophical dialogue regarding the methods and implications of climate studies. To this date, however, discourse regarding the philosophy of climate science has been confined predominately to scientific - rather than philosophical - investigations. In this paper, I hope to bring one such issue to the surface for explicit philosophical analysis: The purpose of this paper is to address a philosophical debate pertaining to the expressions of uncertainty in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), which, as will be noted, has received significant attention in scientific journals and books, as well as sporadic glances from the popular press. My thesis is that the AR4’s Bayesian method of uncertainty analysis and uncertainty expression is justifiable on pragmatic grounds: it overcomes problems associated with vagueness, thereby facilitating communication between scientists and policy makers such that the latter can formulate decision analyses in response to the views of the former. Further, I argue that the most pronounced criticisms against the AR4’s Bayesian approach, which are outlined below, are misguided. §1 Introduction Central to AR4 is a list of terms related to uncertainty that in colloquial conversations would be considered vague. The IPCC attempts to reduce the vagueness of its expressions of uncertainty by calibrating uncertainty terms with numerical probability values derived from a subjective Bayesian methodology. This style of analysis and expression has stimulated some controversy, as critics reject as inappropriate and even misleading the association of uncertainty terms with Bayesian probabilities. [...] The format of the paper is as follows. The investigation begins (§2) with an explanation of background considerations relevant to the IPCC and its use of uncertainty expressions. It then (§3) outlines some general philosophical worries regarding vague expressions and (§4) relates those worries to the AR4 and its method of dealing with them, which is a subjective Bayesian probability analysis. The next phase of the paper (§5) examines the notions of ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’ probability interpretations and compares the IPCC’s subjective Bayesian strategy with a frequentist approach. It then (§6) addresses objections to that methodology, and concludes (§7) that those objections are wrongheaded.

Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; Nicolau, Alex

Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N 2O, CH 4, HFCs, CFCs, and O 3. Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfullymore » implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O 3, N 2O, NO y and CH 4) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.« less

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Evaluating sub-seasonal skill in probabilistic forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and associated extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, A. C.; Lavers, D.; Matsueda, M.; Shukla, S.; Cayan, D. R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - elongated plumes of intense moisture transport - are a primary source of hydrological extremes, water resources and impactful weather along the West Coast of North America and Europe. There is strong demand in the water management, societal infrastructure and humanitarian sectors for reliable sub-seasonal forecasts, particularly of extreme events, such as floods and droughts so that actions to mitigate disastrous impacts can be taken with sufficient lead-time. Many recent studies have shown that ARs in the Pacific and the Atlantic are modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability. Leveraging the improved understanding of how these large-scale climate modes modulate the ARs in these two basins, we use the state-of-the-art multi-model forecast systems such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database to help inform and assess the probabilistic prediction of ARs and related extreme weather events over the North American and European West Coasts. We will present results from evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation and AR activity at the sub-seasonal scale. In particular, results from the comparison of two winters (2015-16 and 2016-17) will be shown, winters which defied canonical El Niño teleconnection patterns over North America and Europe. We further extend this study to analyze probabilistic forecast skill of AR events in these two basins and the variability in forecast skill during certain regimes of large-scale climate modes.

An interactive web application for visualizing climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-01-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

An Interactive Web Application for Visualizing Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-05-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

Do Atmospheric Rivers explain the extreme precipitation events over East Asia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.; Nayak, S.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are now of serious concern due to their damaging societal impacts over last few decades. Thus, climate indices are widely used to identify and quantify variability and changes in particular aspects of the climate system, especially when considering extremes. In our study, we focus on few climate indices of annual precipitation extremes for the period 1979-2013 over East Asia to discuss some straightforward information and interpretation of certain aspects of extreme precipitation events that occur over the region. To do so, we first discuss different percentiles of precipitation and maximum length of wet spell with different thresholds from a regional climate model (NRAMS) simulation at 20km. Results indicate that the 99 percentile of precipitation events correspond to about 80mm/d over few regions of East Asia during 1979-2013 and maximum length of wet spell with minimum 20mm precipitation corresponds to about 10days (Figure 1). We then linked the extreme precipitation events with the intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs). The ARs are identified by computing the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) between 1000hpa and 300hpa with IVT ≥ 250 kg/m/s and 2000 km minimum long. With this threshold and condition (set by previous research), our results indicate that some extreme propitiation events are associated with some ARs over East Asia, while some events are not associated with any ARs. Similarly, some ARs are associated with some extreme precipitation events, while some ARs are not associated with any events. Since the ARs are sensitive to the threshold and condition depending on region, so we will analyze the characteristics of ARs (frequency, duration, and annual variability) with different thresholds and discuss their relationship with extreme precipitation events over East Asia.

Topological data analyses and machine learning for detection, classification and characterization of atmospheric rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muszynski, G.; Kashinath, K.; Wehner, M. F.; Prabhat, M.; Kurlin, V.

2017-12-01

We investigate novel approaches to detecting, classifying and characterizing extreme weather events, such as atmospheric rivers (ARs), in large high-dimensional climate datasets. ARs are narrow filaments of concentrated water vapour in the atmosphere that bring much of the precipitation in many mid-latitude regions. The precipitation associated with ARs is also responsible for major flooding events in many coastal regions of the world, including the west coast of the United States and western Europe. In this study we combine ideas from Topological Data Analysis (TDA) with Machine Learning (ML) for detecting, classifying and characterizing extreme weather events, like ARs. TDA is a new field that sits at the interface between topology and computer science, that studies "shape" - hidden topological structure - in raw data. It has been applied successfully in many areas of applied sciences, including complex networks, signal processing and image recognition. Using TDA we provide ARs with a shape characteristic as a new feature descriptor for the task of AR classification. In particular, we track the change in topology in precipitable water (integrated water vapour) fields using the Union-Find algorithm. We use the generated feature descriptors with ML classifiers to establish reliability and classification performance of our approach. We utilize the parallel toolkit for extreme climate events analysis (TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science, Prabhat et al., Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns, 2015) for comparison (it is assumed that events identified by TECA is ground truth). Preliminary results indicate that our approach brings new insight into the study of ARs and provides quantitative information about the relevance of topological feature descriptors in analyses of a large climate datasets. We illustrate this method on climate model output and NCEP reanalysis datasets. Further, our method outperforms existing methods on detection and classification of ARs. This work illustrates that TDA combined with ML may provide a uniquely powerful approach for detection, classification and characterization of extreme weather phenomena.

Test of High-resolution Global and Regional Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Kjellström, Erik; Raj, Jerry; Bangalath, Hamza; Osipov, Sergey

2014-05-01

In scope of CORDEX project we have simulated the past (1975-2005) and future (2006-2050) climates using the GFDL global high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM) and the Rossby Center nested regional model RCA4 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Both global and nested runs were performed with roughly the same spatial resolution of 25 km in latitude and longitude, and were driven by the 2°x2.5°-resolution fields from GFDL ESM2M IPCC AR5 runs. The global HIRAM simulations could naturally account for interaction of regional processes with the larger-scale circulation features like Indian Summer Monsoon, which is lacking from regional model setup. Therefore in this study we specifically address the consistency of "global" and "regional" downscalings. The performance of RCA4, HIRAM, and ESM2M is tested based on mean, extreme, trends, seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and winds. The impact of climate change on dust storm activity, extreme precipitation and water resources is specifically addressed. We found that the global and regional climate projections appear to be quite consistent for the modeled period and differ more significantly from ESM2M than between each other.

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

Quantifying the Influence of Dynamics Across Scales on Regional Climate Uncertainty in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenson, Naomi L.

Uncertainties in climate projections at the regional scale are inevitably larger than those for global mean quantities. Here, focusing on western North American regional climate, several approaches are taken to quantifying uncertainties starting with the output of global climate model projections. Internal variance is found to be an important component of the projection uncertainty up and down the west coast. To quantify internal variance and other projection uncertainties in existing climate models, we evaluate different ensemble configurations. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble of opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter offers the advantage of also producing estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that climate projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible. We then conduct a small single-model ensemble of simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales with physics from the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (MPAS-CAM5) and prescribed historical sea surface temperatures. In the global variable resolution domain, the finest resolution (at 30 km) is in our region of interest over western North America and upwind over the northeast Pacific. In the finer-scale region, extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers (ARs) is connected to tendencies in seasonal snowpack in mountains of the Northwest United States and California. In most of the Cascade Mountains, winters with more AR days are associated with less snowpack, in contrast to the northern Rockies and California's Sierra Nevadas. In snowpack observations and reanalysis of the atmospheric circulation, we find similar relationships between frequency of AR events and winter season snowpack in the western United States. In spring, however, there is not a clear relationship between number of AR days and seasonal mean snowpack across the model ensemble, so caution is urged in interpreting the historical record in the spring season. Finally, the representation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--an important source of interannual climate predictability in some regions--is explored in a large single-model ensemble using ensemble Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to find modes of variance across the entire ensemble at once. The leading EOF is ENSO. The principal components (PCs) of the next three EOFs exhibit a lead-lag relationship with the ENSO signal captured in the first PC. The second PC, with most of its variance in the summer season, is the most strongly cross-correlated with the first. This approach offers insight into how the model considered represents this important atmosphere-ocean interaction. Taken together these varied approaches quantify the implications of climate projections regionally, identify processes that make snowpack water resources vulnerable, and seek insight into how to better simulate the large-scale climate modes controlling regional variability.

Assessing Uncertainty in Deep Learning Techniques that Identify Atmospheric Rivers in Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahesh, A.; Mudigonda, M.; Kim, S. K.; Kashinath, K.; Kahou, S.; Michalski, V.; Williams, D. N.; Liu, Y.; Prabhat, M.; Loring, B.; O'Brien, T. A.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can be the difference between CA facing drought or hurricane-level storms. ARs are a form of extreme weather defined as long, narrow columns of moisture which transport water vapor outside the tropics. When they make landfall, they release the vapor as rain or snow. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs), a machine learning technique that uses filters to recognize features, are the leading computer vision mechanism for classifying multichannel images. CNNs have been proven to be effective in identifying extreme weather events in climate simulation output (Liu et. al. 2016, ABDA'16, http://bit.ly/2hlrFNV). Here, we compare three different CNN architectures, tuned with different hyperparameters and training schemes. We compare two-layer, three-layer, four-layer, and sixteen-layer CNNs' ability to recognize ARs in Community Atmospheric Model version 5 output, and we explore the ability of data augmentation and pre-trained models to increase the accuracy of the classifier. Because pre-training the model with regular images (i.e. benches, stoves, and dogs) yielded the highest accuracy rate, this strategy, also known as transfer learning, may be vital in future scientific CNNs, which likely will not have access to a large labelled training dataset. By choosing the most effective CNN architecture, climate scientists can build an accurate historical database of ARs, which can be used to develop a predictive understanding of these phenomena.

West Coast atmospheric river climatology in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P.

2015-12-01

In recent years, there has been a flurry of research on how atmospheric river events (ARs) will respond to anthropogenic global warming. This study uses 10 CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models to focus on changes in AR frequency, seasonality, and synoptic conditions along the west coast of the United States and is a follow-up to previous work by the same authors (Warner et al. 2015) which investigated expected changes in AR intensity in the same region. There are only very slight changes in annual AR climatology from the end of the last century to the end of this century when considering the most extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (99th percentile). However, when evaluating by the number of future days exceeding a historical threshold, there are significant increases in extreme IVT events in all months, especially during months when the majority of events take place. The peaks in historical and future frequency occur in similar months given the amount of model variability. Extreme IVT events appear to be occurring slightly earlier in the season, particularly along the northern US coast, and these results are similar to other studies. Spatially, 10-model mean historical composites of IVT reveal canonical AR conditions. At locations farther south, there is less model agreement on the spatial extent and intensity of AR events; whereas farther north, the various models are in agreement. Composites of future events indicate very little spatial change from historical events. The location and orientation of AR events in the historical and future time periods are similar, and the upper-level winds change little over that time period (Warner et al. 2015). This suggests little change in synoptic conditions for approaching ARs. The future-historical difference plots highlight the largest changes expected in the future, namely increases in IVT intensity which are primarily associated with thermodynamic changes related to future integrated water vapor increases due to a warming atmosphere.

Investigating the Greenland ice sheet evolution under changing climate using a three-dimensional full-Stokes model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

2010-12-01

A three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled model is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. The model implements the full-Stokes equations for the ice dynamics, and the system is solved with the finite-element method (FEM) using the open source multi-physics package Elmer (http://www.csc.fi/elmer/). The finite-element mesh for the computational domain has been created using the Greenland surface and bedrock DEM data with a spatial resolution of 5 km (SeaRise community effort, based on Bamber and others, 2001). The study is particularly aimed at better understanding the ice dynamics near the major Greenland ice streams. The meshing procedure starts with the bedrock footprint where a mesh with triangle elements and a resolution of 5 km is constructed. Since the resulting mesh is unnecessarily dense in areas with slow ice dynamics, an anisotropic mesh adaptation procedure has been introduced. Using the measured surface velocities to evaluate the Hessian matrix of the velocities, a metric tensor is computed at the mesh vertices in order to define the adaptation scheme. The resulting meshed footprint obtained with the automatic tool YAMS shows a high density of elements in the vicinities of the North-East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), the Jakobshavn ice stream (JIS) and the Kangerdlugssuaq (KL) and Helheim (HH) glaciers. On the other hand, elements with a coarser resolution are generated away from the ice streams and domain margins. The final three-dimensional mesh is obtained by extruding the 2D footprint with 21 vertical layers, so that the resulting mesh contains 400860 wedge elements and 233583 nodes. The numerical solution of the Stokes and the heat transfer equations involves direct and iterative solvers depending on the simulation case, and both methods are coupled with stabilization procedures. The boundary conditions are such that the temperature at the surface uses the present-day mean annual air temperature given by a parameterization or directly from the available data, the geothermal heat flux at the bedrock is prescribed as spatially constant and the lateral sides are open boundaries. A non-linear Weertman law is used for the basal sliding. The project goal is to better assess the effects of dynamical changes of the Greenland ice sheet on sea level rise under global-warming conditions. Hence, the simulations have been conducted in order to investigate the ice sheet evolution using the climate forcing experiments defined in the SeaRISE project. For that purpose, four different experiments have been conducted, (i) constant climate control run beginning at present (epoch 2004-1-1 0:0:0) and running up to 500 years holding the climate constant to its present state, (ii) constant climate forcing with increased basal lubrication, (iii) AR4 climate run forced by anomalies derived from results given in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) for the A1B emission scenario, (iv) AR4 climate run with increased basal lubrication.

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

PubMed

Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

2015-08-28

There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.

Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip;

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming

PubMed Central

Koven, Charles D.; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-01-01

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41–70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. PMID:21852573

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meehl, G A; Covey, C; McAvaney, B

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is designed to allow study and intercomparison of multi-model simulations of present-day and future climate. The latter are represented by idealized forcing of compounded 1% per year CO2 increase to the time of CO2 doubling near year 70 in simulations with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic subprojects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September, 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models hasmore » been made since the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multi-century surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models is now usually around 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric model resolutions of around 1.5 degrees latitude-longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to 20th and 21st century climate simulations with a variety of forcings (e.g. volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases (GHGs), with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well). However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models still are present in the present generation (e.g. over-extensive equatorial Pacific cold tongue, double ITCZ). This points to the next challenge for the global coupled climate modeling community. Planning and imminent commencement of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has prompted rapid coupled model development, which will lead to an expanded CMIP-like activity to collect and analyze results for the control, 1% CO2, 20th, 21st and 22nd century simulations performed for the AR4. The international climate community is encouraged to become involved in this analysis effort, and details are provided below in how to do so.« less

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-06-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall, the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply, and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the AR-5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. The relative increase by the period 2071-2100 with respect to the control period 1871-1900 ranges from 13% to 50% under the strongest scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP-8.5), in the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon climatology; and 13% to 85% when all the 20 models are considered. The spread across models reduces when variability increase per degree of global warming is considered, which is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% ± 4%/K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, I.; Dominguez, F.

2016-12-01

Changing climate could impact the frequency and intensity of extreme atmospheric river events. This can have important consequences for regions like the Southwestern United Sates that rely upon AR-related precipitation for meeting their water demand and are prone to AR-related flooding. This study investigates the effects of climate change on extreme AR events in the Salt and Verde river basins in Central Arizona using a pseudo global warming method (PGW). First, the five most extreme events that affected the region were selected. High-resolution control simulations of these events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model realistically captured the magnitude and spatial distribution of precipitation. Subsequently, following the PGW approach, the WRF initial and lateral boundary conditions were perturbed. The perturbation signals were obtained from an ensemble of 9 General Circulation Models for two warming scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. Several simulations were conducted changing the temperature and relative humidity fields. PGW simulations reveal that while the overall dynamics of the storms did not change significantly, there was marked strengthening of associated Integrated Vertical Transport (IVT) plumes. There was a general increase in the precipitation over the basins due to increased moisture availability, but heterogeneous spatial changes. Additionally, no significant changes in the strength of the pre-cold frontal low-level jet in the future simulations were observed.

Assessing modelled spatial distributions of ice water path using satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliasson, S.; Buehler, S. A.; Milz, M.; Eriksson, P.; John, V. O.

2010-05-01

The climate models used in the IPCC AR4 show large differences in monthly mean cloud ice. The most valuable source of information that can be used to potentially constrain the models is global satellite data. For this, the data sets must be long enough to capture the inter-annual variability of Ice Water Path (IWP). PATMOS-x was used together with ISCCP for the annual cycle evaluation in Fig. 7 while ECHAM-5 was used for the correlation with other models in Table 3. A clear distinction between ice categories in satellite retrievals, as desired from a model point of view, is currently impossible. However, long-term satellite data sets may still be used to indicate the climatology of IWP spatial distribution. We evaluated satellite data sets from CloudSat, PATMOS-x, ISCCP, MODIS and MSPPS in terms of monthly mean IWP, to determine which data sets can be used to evaluate the climate models. IWP data from CloudSat cloud profiling radar provides the most advanced data set on clouds. As CloudSat data are too short to evaluate the model data directly, it was mainly used here to evaluate IWP from the other satellite data sets. ISCCP and MSPPS were shown to have comparatively low IWP values. ISCCP shows particularly low values in the tropics, while MSPPS has particularly low values outside the tropics. MODIS and PATMOS-x were in closest agreement with CloudSat in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution, with MODIS being the best of the two. As PATMOS-x extends over more than 25 years and is in fairly close agreement with CloudSat, it was chosen as the reference data set for the model evaluation. In general there are large discrepancies between the individual climate models, and all of the models show problems in reproducing the observed spatial distribution of cloud-ice. Comparisons consistently showed that ECHAM-5 is the GCM from IPCC AR4 closest to satellite observations.

Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

2009-04-01

Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling equipment combinations, from natural ventilation to cooling pads. Simulations which include the effects of climate change show the evolution in cooling technologies which will be necessary in this kind of animal houses, in six European locations, if the global temperature rising continues with the current rate. The necessary changes in cooling technologies of animal houses, will be important in Europe when the outside air temperature rising is greater than or equal to two Celsius degrees. Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change. 2008. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4syr.pdf I. Seginer. 2002. The Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration Equation as an Element in Greenhouse Ventilation Design. Biosystems Eng. 82(4): 423-439. doi:10.1006/bioe2002.0086 V. Blanes, S. Pedersen. 2005. Ventilation Flow in Pig Houses measured and calculated by Carbon Dioxide, Moisture and Heat Balance Equations. Biosystems Eng. 92(4): 483-493. doi:10.1006/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.002

Linking seasonal climate forecasts with crop models in Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa, Mirian; Ines, Amor; Baethgen, Walter; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Han, Eunjin; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2015-04-01

Translating seasonal climate forecasts into agricultural production forecasts could help to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. In this study, we use seasonal rainfall forecasts and crop models to improve predictability of wheat yield in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Additionally, we estimate economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecast. This study evaluates two methods for disaggregating seasonal climate forecasts into daily weather data: 1) a stochastic weather generator (CondWG), and 2) a forecast tercile resampler (FResampler). Both methods were used to generate 100 (with FResampler) and 110 (with CondWG) weather series/sequences for three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts. Simulated wheat yield is computed with the crop model CERES-wheat (Ritchie and Otter, 1985), which is included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5, Hoogenboom et al., 2010). Simulations were run at two locations in northeastern Spain where the crop model was calibrated and validated with independent field data. Once simulated yields were obtained, an assessment of farmer's gross margin for different seasonal climate forecasts was accomplished to estimate production risks under different climate scenarios. This methodology allows farmers to assess the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast in IP prior to the crop growing season. The results of this study may have important implications on both, public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors. Acknowledgements Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) References Hoogenboom, G. et al., 2010. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT).Version 4.5 [CD-ROM].University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii. Ritchie, J.T., Otter, S., 1985. Description and performanceof CERES-Wheat: a user-oriented wheat yield model. In: ARS Wheat Yield Project. ARS-38.Natl Tech Info Serv, Springfield, Missouri, pp. 159-175.

Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: the skill-persistence rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Y.; Rong, X.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the factors that impact the forecast skill for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill of sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further examined using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but can be distorted by the sampling error and non-AR1 processes.

Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large inter-model variability strongly correlated with the inter-model spread of historical jet position. Under RCP 8.5, AR frequency is projected to increase a few times by the end of this century. While thermodynamics plays a dominate role in the future increase of ARs, wind changes associated with the midlatitude jet shifts alsomore » significantly contribute to AR changes, resulting in dipole change patterns in all seasons. In the North Atlantic, the model projected jet shifts are strongly correlated with the simulated historical jet position. As models exhibit predominantly equatorward biases in the historical jet position, the large poleward jet shifts reduce AR days south of the historical mean jet position through the dynamical connections between the jet positions and AR days. Using the observed historical jet position as an emergent constraint, dynamical effects further increase AR days in the future above the large increases due to thermodynamical effects. In the future, both total and extreme precipitation induced by AR contribute more to the seasonal mean and extreme precipitation compared to present primarily because of the increase in AR frequency. While AR precipitation intensity generally increases more relative to the increase in integrated vapor transport, AR extreme precipitation intensity increases much less.« less

Simple Climate Model Evaluation Using Impulse Response Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarber, A.; Hartin, C.; Smith, S. J.

2017-12-01

Simple climate models (SCMs) are central tools used to incorporate climate responses into human-Earth system modeling. SCMs are computationally inexpensive, making them an ideal tool for a variety of analyses, including consideration of uncertainty. Despite their wide use, many SCMs lack rigorous testing of their fundamental responses to perturbations. Here, following recommendations of a recent National Academy of Sciences report, we compare several SCMs (Hector-deoclim, MAGICC 5.3, MAGICC 6.0, and the IPCC AR5 impulse response function) to diagnose model behavior and understand the fundamental system responses within each model. We conduct stylized perturbations (emissions and forcing/concentration) of three different chemical species: CO2, CH4, and BC. We find that all 4 models respond similarly in terms of overall shape, however, there are important differences in the timing and magnitude of the responses. For example, the response to a BC pulse differs over the first 20 years after the pulse among the models, a finding that is due to differences in model structure. Such perturbation experiments are difficult to conduct in complex models due to internal model noise, making a direct comparison with simple models challenging. We can, however, compare the simplified model response from a 4xCO2 step experiment to the same stylized experiment carried out by CMIP5 models, thereby testing the ability of SCMs to emulate complex model results. This work allows an assessment of how well current understanding of Earth system responses are incorporated into multi-model frameworks by way of simple climate models.

CMIP6 Citation Services and the Data Services of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre for AR6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockhause, Martina; Lautenschlager, Michael

2017-04-01

As a result of the experiences from CMIP5 the two services contributed by DKRZ to the CMIP research infrastructure have been improved for CMIP6: the Citation Services and the Services of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC, http://ipcc-data.org). 1. Data Citation Services: Within CMIP5 it took a couple of years before the data was citable with their DataCite DOIs. The DataCite DOI registration by the WDC Climate at DKRZ (World Data Center Climate at the Climate Computing Center) requires data transfer and long-term archival at DKRZ according to DDC's quality standards. Based on a request from WGCM (Working Group on Climate Models) an additional early citation possibility for the evolving CMIP6 data was added to the citation service (http://cmip6cite.wdc-climate.de). 2. IPCC DDC Services: WDC Climate has been hosting the IPCC DDC's Reference Data Archive for the climate model output underlying the IPCC Assessment Reports (ARs) since the Second Assessment Report in 1995. One task of the DDC is the support of the IPCC Working Groups (WGs) and their authors. The WG support was not sufficient for AR5 resulting in WG I setting up and maintaining their own CMIP5 data repository hosting a data subset. The DDC will open DKRZ's CMIP data pool as an additional DDC service for the IPCC authors using a synergy with the interests of the national climate community. Within the PICO the Citation and the IPCC DDC services will be presented from a user's perspective. The connections to and integration into the infrastructure for CMIP6 (see https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/wip/) will be explained.

Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

2010-05-01

The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of the dispersion, though for a given SST pattern, ARPEGE does not necessarily reproduce the anomaly produced originally by the IPCC model which produced the SST anomaly. Many factors can contribute to this discrepancy, but the most prominent seems to be the absence of coupling between the forced atmospheric ARPEGE simulation and the underlying ocean. When the atmospheric model is forced by prescribed SST anomalies some retroactions between cyclogenesis and ocean are missing. There are however areas over the globe were models agree about the CYGP or GPI anomalies induced by global warming, such as the Indian Ocean that shows a better coherency in the coupled and forced responses. This could be an indication that interaction between ocean and atmosphere is not as strong there as in the other basins. Details of the results for all the other ocean basins will be presented. References: Chauvin F. and J.-F. Royer and M. Déqué , 2006: Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution. Climate Dynamics 27(4), 377-399. IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change], Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, in: S. Solomon et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press. Royer JF, F Chauvin, 2009: Response of tropical cyclogenesis to global warming in an IPCC AR-4 scenario assessed by a modified yearly genesis parameter. "Hurricanes and Climate Change", J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (Eds.), Springer, ISBN: 978-0-387-09409-0, pp 213-234.

Climate impacts on agricultural biomass production in the CORDEX.be project context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Termonia, Piet; Willems, Patrick; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Marbaix, Philippe; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Fettweis, Xavier; De Ridder, Koen; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Luyten, Patrick; Pottiaux, Eric

2016-04-01

The most important coordinated international effort to translate the IPCC-AR5 outcomes to regional climate modelling is the so-called "COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment" (CORDEX, http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/). CORDEX.be is a national initiative that aims at combining the Belgian climate and impact modelling research into a single network. The climate network structure is naturally imposed by the top-down data flow, from the four participating upper-air Regional Climate Modelling groups towards seven Local Impact Models (LIMs). In addition to the production of regional climate projections following the CORDEX guidelines, very high-resolution results are provided at convection-permitting resolutions of about 4 km across Belgium. These results are coupled to seven local-impact models with severity indices as output. A multi-model approach is taken that allows uncertainty estimation, a crucial aspect of climate projections for policy-making purposes. The down-scaled scenarios at 4 km resolution allow for impact assessment in different Belgian agro-ecological zones. Climate impacts on arable agriculture are quantified using REGCROP which is a regional dynamic agri-meteorological model geared towards modelling climate impact on biomass production of arable crops (Gobin, 2010, 2012). Results from previous work show that heat stress and water shortages lead to reduced crop growth, whereas increased CO2-concentrations and a prolonged growing season have a positive effect on crop yields. The interaction between these effects depend on the crop type and the field conditions. Root crops such as potato will experience increased drought stress particularly when the probability rises that sensitive crop stages coincide with dry spells. This may be aggravated when wet springs cause water logging in the field and delay planting dates. Despite lower summer precipitation projections for future climate in Belgium, winter cereal yield reductions due to drought stress will be smaller due to earlier maturity. Preliminary results will be presented using the new scenario runs for Belgium.

Clustering of Global Climate Models outputs as a tool for scenario-based risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R Pereira, V.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Avila, A. M. H. D.

2016-12-01

The choice of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) future projections outputs for the scenario based risk assessment studies is a challenge for the non-climate models scientists. This study presents a method to select a range of the GCMs scenarios for regional/continental agriculture studies. The technique proposed here is based on grouping the surface air temperature (tas) anomalies in a continental /regional scale - in Brazil-South America - projected by the AR5-CMIP5-GCMs. We run the k-means cluster algorithm and the silhouette method to identify the optimal number and to group the GCMs tas outputs under the rcp 8.5. We applied the delta method to calculate the near future climate change. This method is based on the difference between the future and the baseline in a 30 year running mean periods basis. The future considered here is the 2021-2050 [2030s] and the baseline is the period of 1976-2005 (1980s). As expected, all the models projections showed increases in tas in the near future, ranging from ≅ 3.6 to 0.2 oC. The k-means clustering clearly indicates 5 groups of GCMs tas deltas. The majority of GCMs indicated an intermediate future temperature changes. There is a group of 12 GCMs that is indicating an average change of ≅ 2 oC and another group of 16 indicating ≅ 1 oC. The other two groups with 3 GCMs each indicated a most extreme tas scenario - 0.2 and 3.6 oC respectively. The results were in agreement with previous studies with the AR4 GCMs in which the Miroc5 and HADGEM ES predecessors were classified in different groups of models. The results also allowed us to gradually access the optimist - pessimist groups of 34 GCMs that is a good reference to guide the public policy demands for agriculture under climate change conditions.

Identification of the atmospheric river drivers key on local flood generating mechanism and its sensitivity under the climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Mauger, Guillaume; Salathé, Eric; Mitchell, Todd P.

2017-04-01

Flooding is one of the natural hazard that causes the significant economic, ecosystem and human losses every year. Large percentage of floodings in the western of the US caused by heavy precipitation events are associated to atmospheric rivers (ARs). With the warmer climate is expected an increase of saturated water pressure which could increase the intensity and frequency of the ARs. In this work we attend to address two questions: 1) what are the large-scale drivers that promotes differences in ARs promoting heavy precipitation at different locations and 2) how climate change will influence on ARs and extreme precipitation. The methods applied in our analysis consist on a dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The target region is the western coastline U.S. on a domain with 12-km grid spacing. Regional climate simulations (RCM) encompass a historical period (1970-2010) and future projections (2020-2060) using NNRP and ECHAM as initial and boundary conditions. Clustering methods are applied to the RCM to identify regions with similar precipitation variability. At each region, the extreme events of precipitation according to 99 percentile are identified and associated to integrated vapor transport (ITV). Results show how heaviest precipitation in each region is associated to different AR patterns. When an AR impacts coastline, the direction and intensity of the IVT determine the areas affected by heavy precipitation. Coastal mountains play a key role intensifying the precipitation in the coastline and avoiding the inland penetration of the IVT. The shape of the atmospheric rivers is related to differences in 500 hPa geopotential between the mean and the extreme precipitation. Areas with heaviest precipitation are located in the interface of Z500 differences.

Evaluation of skill at simulating heatwave and heat-humidity indices in Global and Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldie, J. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Lewis, S. C.; Sherwood, S. C.

2017-12-01

A wide body of literature now establishes the harm of extreme heat on human health, and work is now emerging on the projection of future health impacts. However, heat-health relationships vary across different populations (Gasparrini et al. 2015), so accurate simulation of regional climate is an important component of joint health impact projection. Here, we evaluate the ability of nine Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP5 and the NARCliM Regional Climate Model to reproduce a selection of 15 health-relevant heatwave and heat-humidity indices over the historical period (1990-2005) using the Perkins skill score (Perkins et al. 2007) in five Australian cities. We explore the reasons for poor model skill, comparing these modelled distributions to both weather station observations and gridded reanalysis data. Finally, we show changes in the modelled distributions from the highest-performing models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios and discuss the implications of simulated heat stress for future climate change adaptation. ReferencesGasparrini, Antonio, Yuming Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Eric Lavigne, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Aurelio Tobias, et al. "Mortality Risk Attributable to High and Low Ambient Temperature: A Multicountry Observational Study." The Lancet 386, no. 9991 (July 31, 2015): 369-75. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0. Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman, N. J. Holbrook, and J. McAneney. "Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models' Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions." Journal of Climate 20, no. 17 (September 1, 2007): 4356-76. doi:10.1175/JCLI4253.1.

Assessing the climate-scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Ralph, F. Martin; Lavers, David A.; Rutz, Jonathan J.

2017-08-01

A new method for automatic detection of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is developed and applied to an atmospheric reanalysis, yielding an extensive catalog of ARs land-falling along the west coast of North America during 1948-2017. This catalog provides a large array of variables that can be used to examine AR cases and their climate-scale variability in exceptional detail. The new record of AR activity, as presented, validated and examined here, provides a perspective on the seasonal cycle and the interannual-interdecadal variability of AR activity affecting the hydroclimate of western North America. Importantly, AR intensity does not exactly follow the climatological pattern of AR frequency. Strong links to hydroclimate are demonstrated using a high-resolution precipitation data set. We describe the seasonal progression of AR activity and diagnose linkages with climate variability expressed in Pacific sea surface temperatures, revealing links to Pacific decadal variability, recent regional anomalies, as well as a generally rising trend in land-falling AR activity. The latter trend is consistent with a long-term increase in vapor transport from the warming North Pacific onto the North American continent. The new catalog provides unprecedented opportunities to study the climate-scale behavior and predictability of ARs affecting western North America.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

of the present-day Arctic atmosphere in CCSM4. J. Climate, 2676-2695. Overeem, I ., R . S. Anderson, C. W. Wobus, G. D. Clow, F. E. Urban, and N...intensity of extreme Arctic cyclones? APPROACH I am targeting these objectives through a retrospective analysis of the transient 20th century...simulations (spanning years 1850-2005) among the GCMs participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). I am including 14

High-precision 14C and 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Campanian Ignimbrite (Y-5) reconciles the time-scales of climatic-cultural processes at 40 ka.

PubMed

Giaccio, Biagio; Hajdas, Irka; Isaia, Roberto; Deino, Alan; Nomade, Sebastien

2017-04-06

The Late Pleistocene Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) super-eruption (Southern Italy) is the largest known volcanic event in the Mediterranean area. The CI tephra is widely dispersed through western Eurasia and occurs in close stratigraphic association with significant palaeoclimatic and Palaeolithic cultural events. Here we present new high-precision 14 C (34.29 ± 0.09 14 C kyr BP, 1σ) and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar (39.85 ± 0.14 ka, 95% confidence level) dating results for the age of the CI eruption, which substantially improve upon or augment previous age determinations and permit fuller exploitation of the chronological potential of the CI tephra marker. These results provide a robust pair of 14 C and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages for refining both the radiocarbon calibration curve and the Late Pleistocene time-scale at ca. 40 ka. In addition, these new age constraints provide compelling chronological evidence for the significance of the combined influence of the CI eruption and Heinrich Event 4 on European climate and potentially evolutionary processes of the Early Upper Palaeolithic.

High-precision 14C and 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Campanian Ignimbrite (Y-5) reconciles the time-scales of climatic-cultural processes at 40 ka

PubMed Central

Giaccio, Biagio; Hajdas, Irka; Isaia, Roberto; Deino, Alan; Nomade, Sebastien

2017-01-01

The Late Pleistocene Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) super-eruption (Southern Italy) is the largest known volcanic event in the Mediterranean area. The CI tephra is widely dispersed through western Eurasia and occurs in close stratigraphic association with significant palaeoclimatic and Palaeolithic cultural events. Here we present new high-precision 14C (34.29 ± 0.09 14C kyr BP, 1σ) and 40Ar/39Ar (39.85 ± 0.14 ka, 95% confidence level) dating results for the age of the CI eruption, which substantially improve upon or augment previous age determinations and permit fuller exploitation of the chronological potential of the CI tephra marker. These results provide a robust pair of 14C and 40Ar/39Ar ages for refining both the radiocarbon calibration curve and the Late Pleistocene time-scale at ca. 40 ka. In addition, these new age constraints provide compelling chronological evidence for the significance of the combined influence of the CI eruption and Heinrich Event 4 on European climate and potentially evolutionary processes of the Early Upper Palaeolithic. PMID:28383570

A natural laboratory for 40Ar/39Ar geochronology: ICDP cores from Lake Van, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelhardt, Jonathan; Sudo, Masafumi; Oberhänsli, Roland

2015-04-01

Pore water samples from ICDP Paleovan cores indicate a limited pore water exchange within Quaternary lake sediments. The core's volcaniclastic sections bear unaltered K-rich ternary feldspar and fresh to altered glass shards of predominantly rhyolitic composition. Whereas applying the 40Ar/39Ar method on feldspars resulted in ages timing a late-stage crystallization, glass shards had the potential to date the eruption. Volcanic glass is prone to modifications such as hydrous alteration (palagonitization) and devitrification (Cerling et al., 1985). These modifications affect the glass' chemistry and challenge the application of the 40Ar/39Ar method. Gaining precise radiometric ages from two phases has the potential to strengthen a climate-stratigraphic age-model (Stockhecke et al., 2014), and to significantly increase the temporal resolution on the deposition of the lake sediments. Vice versa the core's previous age model has the ability to question the reliability of 40Ar/39Ar eruption ages derived from ternary feldspars and glass shards. Multi- and single-grain total fusion on alkali feldspars from six volcaniclastic deposits resulted in Pleistocene ages that are in good agreement with the predicted age model. Feldspar phenocrysts from three ashes in the core's youngest section yielded consistent isochron ages that are significantly older than the model's prediction. Several distinct stratigraphic and paleomagnetic time markers of similar stratigraphic positions contradict to the older radiometric dates (Stockhecke et al., 2014). Partial resorption features of inherited feldspar domains and the involvement of excess 40Ar indicate incomplete degassing of older domains. To evaluate the magmatic history of the different domains EMPA mappings of trace elements that could be interpreted as Ar diffusion couples are currently conducted. Geochronology on Paleovan cores offers unique opportunities to monitor the effect of alteration on the Ar-systematics of volcanic glass shards and identifies a period of incorporation and incomplete degassing of inherited feldspar domains. References: Cerling, T.E., Brown, F.H., Bowman, J.R., 1985. Low-Temperature Alteration of Volcanic Glass - Hydration, Na, K, O-18 and Ar Mobility. Chemical Geology, 52 (3-4), 281-293. Stockhecke, M., Kwiecien, O., Vigliotti, L., Anselmetti, F., Beer, J., Çağatay, N. M., Channell, J. E. T., Kipfel, R., Lachner, J., Litt, T., Pickarski, N., Sturm, M., 2014. Chronostratigraphy of the 600,000 year old continental record of Lake Van (Turkey). Quarternary Science Reviews 104, 8-17

Toward Evaluating the Predictability of Arctic-related Climate Variations: Initial Results from ArCS Project Theme 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasumi, H.

2016-12-01

We present initial results from the theme 5 of the project ArCS, which is a national flagship project for Arctic research in Japan. The goal of theme 5 is to evaluate the predictability of Arctic-related climate variations, wherein we aim to: (1) establish the scientific basis of climate predictability; and (2) develop a method for predicting/projecting medium- and long-term climate variations. Variability in the Arctic environment remotely influences middle and low latitudes. Since some of the processes specific to the Arctic environment function as a long memory of the state of the climate, understanding of the process of remote connections would lead to higher-precision and longer-term prediction of global climate variations. Conventional climate models have large uncertainty in the Arctic region. By making Arctic processes in climate models more sophisticated, we aim to clarify the role of multi-sphere interaction in the Arctic environment. In this regard, our newly developed high resolution ice-ocean model has revealed the relationship between the oceanic heat transport into the Arctic Ocean and the synoptic scale atmospheric variability. We also aim to reveal the mechanism of remote connections by conducting climate simulations and analyzing various types of climate datasets. Our atmospheric model experiments under possible future situations of Arctic sea ice cover indicate that reduction of sea ice qualitatively alters the basic mechanism of remote connection. Also, our analyses of climate data have identified the cause of recent more frequent heat waves at Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes and clarified the dynamical process which forms the West Pacific pattern, a dominant mode of the atmospheric anomalous circulation in the West Pacific region which also exhibits a significant signal in the Arctic stratosphere.

Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

2011-12-01

We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

Climate change unlikely to increase malaria burden in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, Teresa K.; Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2016-11-01

The impact of climate change on malaria transmission has been hotly debated. Recent conclusions have been drawn using relatively simple biological models and statistical approaches, with inconsistent predictions. Consequently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) echoes this uncertainty, with no clear guidance for the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission, yet recognizing a strong association between local climate and malaria. Here, we present results from a decade-long study involving field observations and a sophisticated model simulating village-scale transmission. We drive the malaria model using select climate models that correctly reproduce historical West African climate, and project reduced malaria burden in a western sub-region and insignificant impact in an eastern sub-region. Projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission in this region are not of serious concern.

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile).

PubMed

Orrego, R; Abarca-Del-Río, R; Ávila, A; Morales, L

2016-01-01

Climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962-1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070-2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°-40°S and 71°-74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

DOE PAGES

Orrego, R.; Abarca-del-Rio, R.; Avila, A.; ...

2016-09-28

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns suchmore » as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.« less

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrego, R.; Abarca-del-Rio, R.; Avila, A.

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns suchmore » as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.« less

Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Global Wave Energy Flux: Single-Model, Single-Forcing and Single-Scenario Ensemble Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro; Lemos, Gil; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Behrens, Arno; Staneva, Joanna; Miranda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The knowledge of ocean surface wave energy fluxes (or wave power) is of outmost relevance since wave power has a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, and ship, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures design. Changes in the global wave energy flux pattern can alter significantly the impact of waves in continental shelf and coastal areas. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit under the auspices of the COWCLIP (coordinated ocean wave climate projections) project, and received some attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (fifth assessment report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the near future global wave energy flux climate is investigated through a 4-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is reduced, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The four ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1976 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave energy flux climate are analyzed for the 2031-2060 period.

Neogene geomorphic and climatic evolution of the central San Juan Mountains, Colorado: K/Ar age and stable isotope data on supergene alunite and jarosite from the Creede mining district

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rye, Robert O.; Bethke, Philip M.; Lanphere, Marvin A.; Steven, Thomas A.

2000-01-01

K/Ar age determinations or supergene alunite and jarosite, formed during Neogene weathering of the epithermal silver and base-metal ores of the Creede mining district, have been combined with geologic evidence to estimate the timing of regional uplift of the southern Rocky Mountains and related canyon cutting. In addition, oxygen and hydrogen isotopic studies suggest climate changes in the central San Juan Mountains during the past 5 m.y. Alunite [ideally (K,Na)Al3(SO4)2(OH)6] and jarosite [ideally KFe3(SO4)2(OH)6] can be dated by K/Ar or 40Ar/39Ar techniques and both contain OH and SO4 sites that enable four stable isotope analyses (δD, δ18OOH, and δ34S) to be made. This supergene alunite and jarosite formed by weathering of sulfide-rich ore bodies may record the evolution of the chemical and hydrologic processes affecting ancient oxidized acid ground water, as well as details of climate history and geomorphic evolution. Fine-grained (1-10 μm) supergene alunite and jarosite occur in minor fractures in the upper, oxidized parts of the 25 Ma sulfide-bearing veins of the Creede mining district, and jarosite also occurs in adjacent oxidized Ag-bearing clastic sediments. K/Ar ages for alunite range from 4.8 to 3.1 Ma, and for jarosite range from 2.6 to 0.9 Ma. The δD values for alunite and jarosite show opposite correlations with elevation, and values for jarosite correlate with age. Calculated δDH2O values of alunite fluids approach but are larger than those of present-day meteoric water. Calculated δDH2O values for jarosite fluids are more variable; the values of the youngest jarosites are lowest and are similar to those of present-day meteoric water in the district. The narrow δD-δ18OSO4 values of alunites reflects oxidation of sulfide below the water table. The greater range in these values for jarosites reflects oxidation of sulfide under vadose conditions. The ages of alunite mark the position of the paleo-water table at the end of a period of moderate erosion from ca. 25 to 5 Ma that exposed the tops of the ore bodies to oxidation. The younger jarosite formed in the vadose zone during or following subsequent canyon cutting related to regional uplift of the southern Rocky Mountains, The δD values suggest that climates in the area were similar to those of the present day prior to regional uplift but went through a warm period before returning to present conditions during or after regional uplift. The results of this study indicate that the combined stable and radiogenic isotope analysis of supergene alunite and jarosite has broad application in understanding climate and geomorphic evolution of selected areas.

ntermediate frequency atmospheric disturbances: A dynamical bridge connecting western U.S. extreme precipitation with East Asian cold surges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Tianyu NMI; Evans, Katherine J; Deng, Yi

In this study, an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is developed to investigate the downstream modulation of the eastern North Pacific ARs by another weather extreme, known as the East Asian cold surge (EACS), in both reanalysis data and high-resolution global model simulations. It is shown that following the peak of an EACS, atmospheric disturbances of intermediate frequency (IF; 10 30 day period) are excited downstream. This leads to the formation of a persistent cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern North Pacific that dramatically enhances the AR occurrence probability and the surface precipitation over the western U.S. between 30 Nmore » and 50 N. A diagnosis of the local geopotential height tendency further confirms the essential role of IF disturbances in establishing the observed persistent anomaly. This downstream modulation effect is then examined in the two simulations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 with different horizontal resolutions (T85 and T341) for the same period (1979 2005). The connection between EACS and AR is much better captured by the T341 version of the model, mainly due to a better representation of the scale interaction and the characteristics of IF atmospheric disturbances in the higher-resolution model. The findings here suggest that faithful representations of scale interaction in a global model are critical for modeling and predicting the occurrences of hydrological extremes in the western U.S. and for understanding their potential future changes.« less

Model Estimate of Pan-Arctic Lakes and Wetlands Methane Emissions and Their Future Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Bohn, T. J.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

Lakes and wetlands are important sources of the greenhouse gas CH4, whose emission rate is sensitive to climate. The northern high latitudes, which are especially susceptible to climate change, contain about 50% of the world's lakes and wetlands. Given predicted changes in the climate of this region over the next century (IPCC AR5 scenarios), there is concern about a possible positive feedback resulting from methane emissions from the region's wetlands and lakes. To study the climate response of emissions from northern high latitude lakes and wetlands, we employed a large-scale hydrology and carbon cycling model (Variable Infiltration Capacity model; VIC) over the Pan-Arctic domain, which was linked to an atmospheric model (Japan's National Institute of Environmental Studies transport model; NIES TM). In particular, the VIC model simulates the land surface hydrology and carbon cycling across a dynamic lake-wetland continuum, while NIES TM models the atmospheric mixing and 3-dimension transport of methane emitted. The VIC model includes a distributed wetland water table scheme, which accounts for microtopography around the lakes and simulates variations in inundated area that are calibrated to match a passive microwave based inundation product. Per-unit-area carbon uptake and methane emissions at the land surface have been calibrated using extensive in situ observations at West Siberia. Also, the atmospheric methane concentration from this linked model run was verified for the recent 5 years with satellite observations from Aqua's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Envisat's Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) instruments. Using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios, we examine CH4 emissions from high latitude lakes and wetlands, as well as their net greenhouse warming potential, over the next 3 centuries across the Pan-Arctic domain. We also assess relative uncertainties in emissions from each of the sources.

Characteristics and Scenarios Projection of Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Hao, Zhenchun; Ju, Qin; Jiang, Weijuan; Zhu, Changjun

2013-01-01

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least. PMID:23970827

Northern African and Indian Precipitation at the end of the 21st Century: An Integrated Application of Regional and Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patricola, C. M.; Cook, K. H.

2008-12-01

As greenhouse warming continues there is growing concern about the future climate of both Africa, which is highlighted by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) as exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, and India. Precipitation projections from the AOGCMs of the IPCC AR4 are relatively consistent over India, but not over northern Africa. Inconsistencies can be related to the model's inability to capture climate process correctly, deficiencies in physical parameterizations, different SST projections, or horizontal atmospheric resolution that is too coarse to realistically represent the tight gradients over West Africa and complex topography of East Africa and India. Treatment of the land surface in a model may also be an issue over West Africa and India where land-surface/atmosphere interactions are very important. Here a method for simulating future climate is developed and applied using a high-resolution regional model in conjunction with output from a suite of AOGCMs, drawing on the advantages of both the regional and global modeling approaches. Integration by the regional model allows for finer horizontal resolution and regionally appropriate selection of parameterizations and land-surface model. AOGCM output is used to provide SST projections and lateral boundary conditions to constrain the regional model. The control simulation corresponds to 1981-2000, and eight future simulations representing 2081-2100 are conducted, each constrained by a different AOGCM and forced by CO2 concentrations from the SRES A2 emissions scenario. After model spin-up, May through October remain for investigation. Analysis is focused on climate change parameters important for impacts on agriculture and water resource management, and is presented in a format compatible with the IPCC reports. Precipitation projections simulated by the regional model are quite consistent, with 75% or more ensemble members agreeing on the sign of the anomaly over vast regions of Africa and India. Over West Africa, where the regional model provides the greatest improvement over the AOGCMs in consistency of ensemble members, precipitation at the end of the century is generally projected to increase during May and decrease in June and July. Wetter conditions are simulated during August though October, with the exception of drying close to the Guinean Coast in August. In late summer, high rainfall rates are simulated more frequently in the future, indicating the possibility for increases in flooding events. The regional model's projections over India are in stark contrast to the AOGCM's, producing intense and generally widespread drying in August and September. The very promising method developed here is young and further potential developments are recognized, including the addition of ocean, vegetation, and dust models. Ensembles which employ other regional models, sets of parameterizations, and emissions scenarios should also be explored.

Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Yishuai; Rong, Xinyao; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-12-01

This study investigates the factors relationship between the forecast skills for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill for sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further proved using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but could be distorted by sampling errors and non-AR1 processes. This study suggests that the so called "perfect skill" is model dependent and cannot serve as an accurate estimate of the true upper limit of real world prediction skill, unless the model can capture at least the persistence property of the observation.

Prevalence of pollen-induced allergic rhinitis with high pollen exposure in grasslands of northern China.

PubMed

Wang, X-Y; Ma, T-T; Wang, X-Y; Zhuang, Y; Wang, X-D; Ning, H-Y; Shi, H-Y; Yu, R-L; Yan, D; Huang, H-D; Bai, Y-F; Shan, G-L; Zhang, B; Song, Q-K; Zhang, Y-F; Zhang, T-J; Jia, D-Z; Liu, X-L; Kang, Z-X; Yan, W-J; Yang, B-T; Bao, X-Z; Sun, S-H; Zhang, F-F; Yu, W-H; Bai, C-L; Wei, T; Yang, T; Ma, T-Q; Wu, X-B; Liu, J-G; Du, H; Zhang, L; Yan, Y; Wang, D-Y

2018-06-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of epidemiologic and physician-diagnosed pollen-induced AR (PiAR) in the grasslands of northern China and to study the impact of the intensity and time of pollen exposure on PiAR prevalence. A multistage, clustered and proportionately stratified random sampling with a field interviewer-administered survey study was performed together with skin prick tests (SPT) and measurements of the daily pollen count. A total of 6043 subjects completed the study, with a proportion of 32.4% epidemiologic AR and 18.5% PiAR. The prevalence was higher in males than females (19.6% vs 17.4%, P = .024), but no difference between the two major residential and ethnic groups (Han and Mongolian) was observed. Subjects from urban areas showed higher prevalence of PiAR than rural areas (23.1% vs 14.0%, P < .001). Most PiAR patients were sensitized to two or more pollens (79.4%) with artemisia, chenopodium, and humulus scandens being the most common pollen types, which were similarly found as the top three sensitizing pollen allergens by SPT. There were significant regional differences in the prevalence of epidemiologic AR (from 18.6% to 52.9%) and PiAR (from 10.5% to 31.4%) among the six areas investigated. PiAR symptoms were positively associated with pollen counts, temperature, and precipitation (P < .05), but negatively with wind speed and pressure P < .05). Pollen-induced AR (PiAR) prevalence in the investigated region is extremely high due to high seasonal pollen exposure, which was influenced by local environmental and climate conditions. © 2018 The Authors. Allergy Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Untangling the Impacts of Climate Variability on Atmospheric Rivers and Western U.S. Precipitation Using PERSIANN-CONNECT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellars, S. L.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; McCabe-Glynn, S.

2014-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), the large plumes of moisture transported from the tropics, impact many aspects of society in the Western U.S. When ARs make landfall, they are often associated with torrential rains, swollen rivers, flash flooding, and mudslides. We demonstrate that by viewing precipitation events associated with ARs as "objects", calculating their physical characteristics (mean intensity (mm/hr), speed (km/hr), etc.), assigning environmental characteristics (e.g. phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation) for each system, and then performing empirical analyses, we can reveal interactions between different climate phenomena. To perform this analysis, we use a unique object oriented data set based on the gridded, satellite precipitation data from the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) algorithm known as PERSIANN-CONNECT, for the period 3/2000 to 12/2010. The data is segmented into 4D objects (longitude, latitude, time and intensity). Each of the segmented precipitation systems is described by over 72 characteristics. A search of the PERSIANN-CONNECT database for all Western U.S. large-scale precipitation systems returns 626 systems. Out of the 626 large-scale precipitation systems, 200 occurred at the same time as documented Western U.S. land falling ARs (a list of ARs provided by Dr. Martin Ralph). Here we report the physical and environmental characteristics for these 200 storms including a comparison to the 426 non-AR storms. We also report results of an analysis of the δ18O measurements collected from Giant Forest, Sequoia National Park in the Southwestern Sierra Nevada Mountains (McCabe-Glynn et al., in prep.) for the 200 AR precipitation systems. For an overall assessment of the impacts of climate variability on all 626 precipitation systems, we focus on ENSO, and show that during El Nino/La Nina, as compared with Neutral phases of ENSO, the systems are larger (9505, 9097, vs. 6075km^3), faster (44.6, 46.9 vs. 43.7km/hr), longer lasting (62.7,62.1 vs. 54.4hr), and begin slightly further East (153.5,152.7 vs. 148.7W) in the Pacific Ocean.

Influence of soil C stocks and interannual climatic variability on the CO2 and CH4 exchange of maize cultivated on mineral and organic soils in NE Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Madlen; Hagemann, Ulrike; Hoffmann, Mathias; Giebels, Michael; Albiac-Borraz, Elisa; Sommer, Michael; Augustin, Jürgen

2014-05-01

Due to its glacially influenced genesis and land use history, the soils of the Great Plain Region of NE-Germany show large differences in groundwater levels and soil carbon (C) stocks over short distances. Although generally featuring a rather dry climate, trace gas exchange at individual sites may be influenced by i) interannual climatic variability, particularly with respect to precipitation; as well as by ii) variability of soil C stocks. However, it is still unclear how these factors affect fluxes of CO2 and CH4, and if there is any positive or negative feedback on the C source or sink function of different soil types. We present measured and modeled CO2 and CH4 fluxes of minerally fertilized grain maize for three sites located near Paulinenaue, within the so-called Rhin-Havelluch, a shallow and drained paludification mire complex in NE Germany. The sites are characterized by a distinct gradient of 0-1 m soil organic C stocks: i) Arenosol (AR: mineral soil/distant groundwater; 8 000 g C m-2), ii) Gleysol (GL: organic soil/groundwater-dependent; 35 000 g C m-2), and iii) Histosol (HS: organic soil/near groundwater; 45 000 g C m-2). CO2 flux measurements of ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP; calculated as difference between NEE and Reco) were conducted every four weeks using a flow-through non-steady-state closed chamber system. Measurement gaps of Reco and NEE were filled by using temperature or radiation-based models, respectively. CH4 fluxes were measured bi-weekly using a static closed chamber system with interval sampling, with gap filling via linear interpolation. Cumulated fluxes of CO2-C (Reco, GPP, NEE) and CH4-C were calculated for a period of four consecutive years (2007-2010). The intensity of CO2-C fluxes increased with growing soil organic C stocks (AR < GL < HS). Mean annual values of the years 2008-2010 for Reco ranged between 1 500 g C m-2 and 2 000 g C m-2; annual GPP fluxes ranged from -1 400 g C m-2 to -2 300 g C m-2. NEE balances varied from C source on the mineral AR site (65 g C m-2) to C sink for organic sites (nearly -350 g C m-2). Annual CH4 exchange rates were generally very low < 0.3 g C m-2 and negligible compared to annual CO2 exchange. However, the exceptionally wet summer of 2007 (May to July) resulted in drastically increased CH4 emissions from the groundwater-influenced organic soils, particularly at the HS site where CH4 emissions were nearly 100 times higher emissions than in the following years (28 g C m-2). The excess moisture levels in 2007 also appeared to influence ecosystem CO2 exchange - likely through effects on maize growth - resulting in strongly increased Reco and GPP rates at the mineral AR site and drastically decreased Reco and GPP rates at the flooded HS site. The intensity of gaseous C fluxes seems to strongly depend on interactions between soil C stocks and interannual climatic variability. More detailed conclusions about the nature of these interactions require continuation of these measurements, i.e. long-term investigation.

Emission or atmospheric processes? An attempt to attribute the source of large bias of aerosols in eastern China simulated by global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Tianyi; Liu, Xiaohong; Ma, Po-Lun; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Zhanqing; Jiang, Yiquan; Zhang, Fang; Zhao, Chuanfeng; Yang, Xin; Wu, Fang; Wang, Yuying

2018-02-01

Global climate models often underestimate aerosol loadings in China, and these biases can have significant implications for anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. The biases may be caused by either the emission inventory or the treatment of aerosol processes in the models, or both, but so far no consensus has been reached. In this study, a relatively new emission inventory based on energy statistics and technology, Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), is used to drive the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to evaluate aerosol distribution and radiative effects against observations in China. The model results are compared with the model simulations with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) emission inventory. We find that the new MEIC emission improves the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations in eastern China and explains 22-28 % of the AOD low bias simulated with the AR5 emission. However, AOD is still biased low in eastern China. Seasonal variation of the MEIC emission leads to a better agreement with the observed seasonal variation of primary aerosols than the AR5 emission, but the concentrations are still underestimated. This implies that the atmospheric loadings of primary aerosols are closely related to the emission, which may still be underestimated over eastern China. In contrast, the seasonal variations of secondary aerosols depend more on aerosol processes (e.g., gas- and aqueous-phase production from precursor gases) that are associated with meteorological conditions and to a lesser extent on the emission. It indicates that the emissions of precursor gases for the secondary aerosols alone cannot explain the low bias in the model. Aerosol secondary production processes in CAM5 should also be revisited. The simulation using MEIC estimates the annual-average aerosol direct radiative effects (ADREs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere to be -5.02, -18.47, and 13.45 W m-2, respectively, over eastern China, which are enhanced by -0.91, -3.48, and 2.57 W m-2 compared with the AR5 emission. The differences of ADREs by using MEIC and AR5 emissions are larger than the decadal changes of the modeled ADREs, indicating the uncertainty of the emission inventories. This study highlights the importance of improving both the emission and aerosol secondary production processes in modeling the atmospheric aerosols and their radiative effects. Yet, if the estimations of MEIC emissions in trace gases do not suffer similar biases to those in the AOD, our findings will help affirm a fundamental error in the conversion from precursor gases to secondary aerosols as hinted in other recent studies following different approaches.

Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

2016-01-01

Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

Improvement of downscaled rainfall and temperature across generations over the Western Himalayan region of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, L.; Dutta, M.; Akhter, J.; Meher, J. K.

2016-12-01

It is a challenging task to create station level (local scale) climate change information over the mountainous locations of Western Himalayan Region (WHR) in India because of limited data availability and poor data quality. In the present study, missing values of station data were handled through Multiple Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) technique. Finally 22 numbers of rain gauge and 16 number of temperature station data having continuous record during 1901­2005 and 1969­2009 period respectively were considered as reference stations for developing downscaled rainfall and temperature time series from five commonly available GCMs in the IPCC's different generation assessment reports namely 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th hereafter known as SAR, TAR, AR4 and AR5 respectively. Downscaled models were developed using the combined data from the ERA-interim reanalysis and GCMs historical runs (in spite of forcing were not identical in different generation) as predictor and station level rainfall and temperature as predictands. Station level downscaled rainfall and temperature time series were constructed for five GCMs available in each generation. Regional averaged downscaled time series comprising of all stations was prepared for each model and generation and the downscaled results were compared with observed time series. Finally an Overall Model Improvement Index (OMII) was developed using the downscaling results, which was used to investigate the model improvement across generations as well as the improvement of downscaling results obtained from the Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD) methods. In case of temperature, models have improved from SAR to AR5 over the study area. In all most all the GCMs TAR is showing worst performance over the WHR by considering the different statistical indices used in this study. In case of precipitation, no model has shown gradual improvement from SAR to AR5 both for interpolated and downscaled values.

Optimum Orientation of the Atmospheric River (AR) for Extreme Storms in Feather, Yuba, and American River Watersheds in the Pacific Coast of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohara, N.; Kavvas, M. L.; Anderson, M.; Chen, Z. Q.; Ishida, K.

2016-12-01

This study investigated physical maximum precipitation rates for the next generation of flood management strategies under evolving climate conditions using a regional atmospheric model. The model experiments using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric models, MM5, revealed the precipitation mechanism affected by topography and non-linear dynamics of the atmosphere in the Pacific Coast of the US during the Atmospheric River (AR) events. Significant historical storm events were identified based on the continuous weather simulations for the Feather, Yuba, and American river watersheds in California. For these historical storms, the basin precipitations were maximized by setting fully saturated atmospheric layers at the boundary of the outer nesting domain. It was found that maximizing the atmospheric moisture supply at the model boundary does not always increase the precipitation in Feather and Yuba River basins. The pattern of the precipitation increase and decrease by the maximization suggested the rain shadow effect of the Coast Range causing this unexpected precipitation reduction by the moisture maximization. The ground precipitation seems to be controlled by the AR orientation to the topography as well as the precipitable water. Finally, the steady-state precipitation experiments were performed to find an optimum AR orientation to yield the most significant continuous precipitation rate in the Feather, Yuba, and American River basins. This physically-based numerical experiment can potentially incorporate the climate change effects, explicitly.

Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of the population across larger US regions, strongly affects outcomes while smaller-scale spatial patterns of population change have smaller effects. [1] Collins, M. et al. (2013) Contribution of WG I to the 5th AR of the IPCC[2] Romero-Lankao, P. et al (2014) Contribution of WG II to the 5th AR of the IPCC[3] Walsh, J. et al. (2014) The 3rd National Climate Assessment

From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

2014-11-27

Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessmentmore » Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.« less

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinshausen, M.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.

2011-02-01

Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.

An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T; Thornton, Peter E

2009-12-01

The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Projectmore » (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.« less

Eruptive history of Earth's largest Quaternary caldera (Toba, Indonesia) clarified

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chesner, C.A.; Rose, W.I.; Drake, R.

1991-03-01

Single-grain laser-fusion {sup 40}Ar/{sup 39}Ar analyses of individual sanidine phenocrysts from the two youngest Toba (Indonesia) tuffs yield mean ages of 73{plus minus}4 and 501{plus minus}5 ka. In addition, glass shards from Toba ash deposited in Malaysia were dated at 68{plus minus}7 ka by the isothermal plateau fission-track technique. These new determinations, in conjunction with previous ages for the two oldest tuffs at Toba, establish the chronology of four eruptive events from the Toba caldera complex over the past 1.2 m.y. Ash-flow tuffs were erupted from the complex every 0.34 to 0.43 m.y., culminating with the enormous (2500-3000 km{sup 3})more » Youngest Toba tuff eruption, caldera formation, and subsequent resurgence of Samosir Island. Timing of this last eruption at Toba is coincident with the early Wisconsin glacial advance. The high-precision {sup 40}Ar/{sup 39}Ar age eruption of such magnitude may provide an important marker horizon useful as a baseline for research and modeling of the worldwide climatic impact of exceptionally large explosive eruptions.« less

Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations of future changes in landfalling atmospheric rivers over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

This study examines the changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the west coast of North America in response to future warming using model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large magnitude of increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, with fractional increases ranging between ~50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and the landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture inmore » the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be further linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.« less

Assessing Precipitation Isotope Variations during Atmospheric River Events to Reveal Dominant Atmospheric/Hydrologic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe-Glynn, S. E.; Johnson, K. R.; Yoshimura, K.; Buenning, N. H.; Welker, J. M.

2015-12-01

Extreme precipitation events across the Western US commonly associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), whereby extensive fluxes of moisture are transported from the subtropics, can result in major damage and are projected by most climate models to increase in frequency and severity. However, they are difficult to project beyond ~ten days and the location of landfall and topographically induced precipitation is even more uncertain. Water isotopes, often used to reconstruct past rainfall variability, are useful natural tracers of atmospheric hydrologic processes. Because of the typical tropical and sub-tropical origins, ARs can carry unique water isotope (δ18O and δ2H, d-excess) signatures that can be utilized to provide source and process information that can lead to improving AR predictions. Recent analysis of the top 10 weekly precipitation total samples from Sequoia National Park, CA, of which 9 contained AR events, shows a high variability in the isotopic values. NOAA Hysplit back trajectory analyses reveals a variety of trajectories and varying latitudinal source regions contributed to moisture delivered to this site, which may explain part of the high variability (δ2H = -150.03 to -49.52 ‰, δ18O = -19.27 to -7.20 ‰, d-excess = 4.1 to 25.8). Here we examine the top precipitation totals occurring during AR events and the associated isotopic composition of precipitation samples from several sites across the Western US. We utilize IsoGSM, an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model, to characterize the hydrologic processes and physical dynamics contributing to the observed isotopic variations. We investigate isotopic influences from moisture source location, AR speed, condensation height, and associated temperature. We explore the dominant controls on spatial and temporal variations of the isotopic composition of AR precipitation which highlights different physical processes for different AR events.

From up to date climate and ocean evidence with updated UN emissions projections, the time is now to recommend an immediate massive effort on CO2.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Peter

2017-04-01

This paper provides further compelling evidence for 'an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, stopped by mid-century' (Cai, Lenton & Lontzek, 2016). Atmospheric CO2 which is above 405 ppm (actual and trend) still accelerating, despite flat emissions since 2014, with a 2015 >3ppm unprecedented spike in Earth history (A. Glikson),is on the worst case IPCC scenario. Atmospheric methane is increasing faster than its past 20-year rate, almost on the worst-case IPCC AR5 scenario (Global Carbon Project, 2016). Observed effects of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution are increasing faster. This includes long-lived atmospheric GHG concentrations, radiative forcing, surface average warming, Greenland ice sheet melting, Arctic daily sea ice anomaly, ocean heat (and rate of going deeper), ocean acidification, and ocean de-oxygenation. The atmospheric GHG concentration of 485 ppm CO2 eq (WMO, 2015) commits us to 'about 2°C' equilibrium (AR5). 2°C by 2100 would require 'substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades' (AR5). Instead, the May 2016 UN update on 'intended' national emissions targets under the Paris Agreement projects global emissions will be 16% higher by 2030 and the November 2016 International Energy Agency update projects energy-related CO2 eq emissions will be 30% higher by 2030, leading to 'around 2.7°C by 2100 and above 3°C thereafter'. Climate change feedback will be positive this century and multiple large vulnerable sources of amplifying feedback exist (AR5). 'Extensive tree mortality and widespread forest die-back linked to drought and temperature stress have been documented on all vegetated continents' (AR5). 'Recent studies suggest a weakening of the land sink, further amplifying atmospheric growth of CO2' (WMO, 2016). Under all but the best-case IPCC AR5 scenario, surface temperature is projected to increase above 2°C by 2100, which is above 3°C (equilibrium) after 2100, with ocean acidification still increasing at 2100. Ocean heat is increasing under all scenarios at 2100. For all producing regions 'With or without adaptation, negative impacts on average crop yields become likely from the 2030s' (AR5). Crop models do not capture all adverse effects. The climate change of 2030 is practically locked in. NASA NEX downscaled daily maximum temperature projections at 1.5°C are incompatible with today's crop yields in major agricultural regions. Climate-change-related impacts from extreme events are high at 1.5°C (AR5) and add to modeled crop declines. 'Some unique and threatened systems are already at risk from climate change (high confidence)' with 'risk of severe consequences' higher with warming of around 1.5°C (AR5). At today's surface temperature increase, 'risks associated with tipping points become moderate' and 'increase disproportionately' as temperature increases above 1.5°C (AR5). According to mitigation projections, global emissions would decline forthwith for a better than 66% chance of a 2°C limit by 2100 (over 3°C after 2100). Failure to do so would risk the future sustainability of civilization and the human population. The IPCC does not make recommendations so this falls on scientists. By recommending immediate (emergency) massive action on CO2, the science community would make a momentous contribution to the future of humanity.

Evaluation of simulated ocean carbon in the CMIP5 earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, James; Brockmann, Patrick; Seferian, Roland; Servonnat, Jérôme; Bopp, Laurent

2013-04-01

We maintain a centralized model output archive containing output from the previous generation of Earth System Models (ESMs), 7 models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. Output is in a common format located on a centralized server and is publicly available through a web interface. Through the same interface, LSCE/IPSL has also made available output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the foundation for the ongoing IPCC AR5 assessment. The latter includes ocean biogeochemical fields from more than 13 ESMs. Modeling partners across 3 EU projects refer to the combined AR4-AR5 archive and comparison as OCMIP5, building on previous phases of OCMIP (Ocean Carbon Cycle Intercomparison Project) and making a clear link to IPCC AR5 (CMIP5). While now focusing on assessing the latest generation of results (AR5, CMIP5), this effort is also able to put them in context (AR4). For model comparison and evaluation, we have also stored computed derived variables (e.g., those needed to assess ocean acidification) and key fields regridded to a common 1°x1° grid, thus complementing the standard CMIP5 archive. The combined AR4-AR5 output (OCMIP5) has been used to compute standard quantitative metrics, both global and regional, and those have been synthesized with summary diagrams. In addition, for key biogeochemical fields we have deconvolved spatiotemporal components of the mean square error in order to constrain which models go wrong where. Here we will detail results from these evaluations which have exploited gridded climatological data. The archive, interface, and centralized evaluation provide a solid technical foundation, upon which collaboration and communication is being broadened in the ocean biogeochemical modeling community. Ultimately we aim to encourage wider use of the OCMIP5 archive.

Harmonisation of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve

2009-06-01

In preparation for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change assessment (IPCC-AR5), the international community is developing new advanced computer models (CMs) to address the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land-use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being developed by four Integrated Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs) to be used as input to the CMs for future climate projections. The diversity of requirements and approaches among CMs and IAMs for tracking land-use changes (past, present, and future), presents major challenges for treating land-usemore » comprehensively and consistently between these communities. As part of an international working group, we have been working to meet these challenges by developing a "harmonized" set of land-use change scenarios that smoothly connects gridded historical reconstructions of land-use with future projections, in a format required by CMs. This approach to harmonizing the treatment of land-use between two key modeling communities, CMs and IAMs, represents a major advance that will facilitate more consistent and fuller treatments of land-use/land-use change effects including both CO2 emissions and corresponding land-surface changes.« less

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-04-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the IPCC's AR-5, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. While all models show an increase in day-to-day variability, some models are more realistic in capturing the observed seasonal mean rainfall over India than others. While no model's monsoon rainfall exceeds the observed value by more than two standard deviations, half of the models simulate a significantly weaker monsoon than observed. The relative increase in day-to-day variability by the year 2100 ranges from 15% to 48% under the strongest scenario (RCP-8.5), in the ten models which capture seasonal mean rainfall closest to observations. The variability increase per degree of global warming is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% +/- 4% per K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Modes, tempo and spatial variability of Cenozoic cratonic denudation: morphoclimatic constraints from West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beauvais, Anicet; Chardon, Dominique

2010-05-01

After the onset of Gondwana break-up in the Early Mesozoic, the emerged part of the African plate underwent long Greenhouse effect climatic periods and epeirogeny. The last Greenhouse effect period in the Early Cenozoic and the alternation of wet and dry climatic periods since the Eocene enhanced episodes of rock chemical weathering and laterite production, forming bauxites and ferricretes, interrupted by drier periods of dominantly mechanical denudation, shaping glacis [1]. In Sub-Saharan West Africa, this evolution resulted in pulsate and essentially climatically-forced denudation that has shaped an ubiquitous sequence of five stepped lateritic paleosurfaces that synchronously developed over Cenozoic times. The modes, timing and spatial variability of continental denudation of the region are investigated by combining geomorphologic and geochronological data sets. The geomorphologic data set comprises the altitudinal distribution of the lateritic paleosurfaces relicts and their differential elevation from 42 locations in Sub-Saharan West Africa where the sequence (or part of it) has been documented. The geochronological data set consists in the age ranges of each paleosurface tackled by radiometric 39Ar-40Ar dating of the neoformed oxy-hydroxides (i.e., cryptomelane, K1-2Mn8O16, nH2O, [4]) carried by their laterites at the Tambao reference site, Burkina Faso [1, 3]. Five groups of 39Ar-40Ar ages, ~ 59 - 45 Ma, ~ 29 - 24 Ma, ~ 18 - 11.5 Ma, ~ 7.2 - 5.8 Ma, and ~ 3.4 - 2.9 Ma, characterize periods of chemical weathering whereas the time laps between these groups of ages correspond to episodes of mechanical denudation that reflect physical shaping of the paleosurfaces. For the last 45 Ma, the denudation rate estimates (3 to 8 m Ma-1) are comparable with those derived on shorter time scale (103 to 106 y.) in the same region by the cosmogenic radionuclide method [2]. Combined with the geomorphologic data set, these age ranges allow the visualization of the regional variability in the estimates of local relief and denudation rates for several time spans defined between selected paleosurfaces in the sequence. Denudation rates, ranging from ~ 4 m to ~ 25 m Ma-1, reflect overall acceleration of erosion rates in the Neogene. The observed space-time variability of the denudation rates suggest the interplay of (1) duration and intensity of climatically driven physical erosion periods, (2) absolute elevation and position of the considered sites with respect to the main continental divides, and (3) potential reorganization of the large-scale drainage. The results provide a new perspective for the detection, dating and quantification of subtle epeirogenic movements in West Africa, once combined with the sedimentary record of Cenozoic intracratonic and coastal basins. [1] Beauvais, A., Ruffet, G., Hénocque, O., Colin, F., 2008. Chemical and physical erosion rhythms of the West African Cenozoic morphogenesis: The 39Ar-40Ar dating of supergene K-Mn oxides. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surface 113, F04007, doi :10.1029/2008JF000996. [2] Brown, E.T., Bourlès, D.L., Colin, F., Sanfo, Z., Raisbeck, G.M., Yiou, F., 1994. The development of iron crust lateritic systems in Burkina Faso, West Africa examined with in-situ-produced cosmogenic nuclides. Earth Planet. Sci. Letters 124, 19-33. [3] Colin, F., Beauvais, A., Ruffet, G., Hénocque, O., 2005. First 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of lateritic manganiferous pisolites: Implications for the palaeogene history of a West African landscape. Earth Planet. Sci. letters 238, 172-188. [4] Vasconcelos, P.M., 1999. K-Ar and 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of weathering processes. Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 27, 183-229.

Getting It Right Matters: Climate Spectra and Their Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privalsky, Victor; Yushkov, Vladislav

2018-06-01

In many recent publications, climate spectra estimated with different methods from observed, GCM-simulated, and reconstructed time series contain many peaks at time scales from a few years to many decades and even centuries. However, respective spectral estimates obtained with the autoregressive (AR) and multitapering (MTM) methods showed that spectra of climate time series are smooth and contain no evidence of periodic or quasi-periodic behavior. Four order selection criteria for the autoregressive models were studied and proven sufficiently reliable for 25 time series of climate observations at individual locations or spatially averaged at local-to-global scales. As time series of climate observations are short, an alternative reliable nonparametric approach is Thomson's MTM. These results agree with both the earlier climate spectral analyses and the Markovian stochastic model of climate.

Effects of Xingbi gel on leukotriene E4 and immunoglobulin E production and nasal eosinophilia in a guinea pig model for allergic rhinitis.

PubMed

Ai, Si; Zheng, Jian; Chu, Ke-Dan; Zhang, Hong-Sheng

2015-06-01

Allergic rhinitis (AR) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the nasal airways.Many therapies do not have immediate effects,even which have side-effects.However,the effects of Xingbi gel for the treatment of AR was investigated. We investigated the effects of Xingbi gel on serum levels of leukotriene E4 (LTE4) and immunoglobulin E (IgE), as well as eosinophil counts in the nasal mucosa using a guinea pig model of allergic rhinitis (AR). In addition to a healthy control group without AR, guinea pigs with AR were randomly divided into untreated AR control group, low-dose Xingbi gel (0.2483 g/mL) group, high-dose Xingbi gel (0.4966 g/mL) group, and budesonide group. Compared to the healthy controls, untreated AR guinea pigs had significantly higher ethology scores, serum LTE4 and IgE levels, and nasal mucosa eosinophil counts (p <0.01). Treatments with low-dose Xingbi gel, high-dose Xingbi gel, and budesonide significantly reduced the ethology scores, serum LTE4 and IgE levels, and nasal mucosa eosinophil counts as compared to untreated AR model guinea pigs (p <0.01). Xingbi gel alleviates AR in part through inhibiting LTE4 and IgE production and reducing eosinophilia in the nasal mucosa.

Global precipitation measurements for validating climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapiador, F. J.; Navarro, A.; Levizzani, V.; García-Ortega, E.; Huffman, G. J.; Kidd, C.; Kucera, P. A.; Kummerow, C. D.; Masunaga, H.; Petersen, W. A.; Roca, R.; Sánchez, J.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Turk, F. J.

2017-11-01

The advent of global precipitation data sets with increasing temporal span has made it possible to use them for validating climate models. In order to fulfill the requirement of global coverage, existing products integrate satellite-derived retrievals from many sensors with direct ground observations (gauges, disdrometers, radars), which are used as reference for the satellites. While the resulting product can be deemed as the best-available source of quality validation data, awareness of the limitations of such data sets is important to avoid extracting wrong or unsubstantiated conclusions when assessing climate model abilities. This paper provides guidance on the use of precipitation data sets for climate research, including model validation and verification for improving physical parameterizations. The strengths and limitations of the data sets for climate modeling applications are presented, and a protocol for quality assurance of both observational databases and models is discussed. The paper helps elaborating the recent IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of large observational uncertainties in precipitation observations for climate model validation.

The use of Meteonorm weather generator for climate change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remund, J.; Müller, S. C.; Schilter, C.; Rihm, B.

2010-09-01

The global climatological database Meteonorm (www.meteonorm.com) is widely used as meteorological input for simulation of solar applications and buildings. It's a combination of a climate database, a spatial interpolation tool and a stochastic weather generator. Like this typical years with hourly or minute time resolution can be calculated for any site. The input of Meteonorm for global radiation is the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA, http://proto-geba.ethz.ch). All other meteorological parameters are taken from databases of WMO and NCDC (periods 1961-90 and 1996-2005). The stochastic generation of global radiation is based on a Markov chain model for daily values and an autoregressive model for hourly and minute values (Aguiar and Collares-Pereira, 1988 and 1992). The generation of temperature is based on global radiation and measured distribution of daily temperature values of approx. 5000 sites. Meteonorm generates also additional parameters like precipitation, wind speed or radiation parameters like diffuse and direct normal irradiance. Meteonorm can also be used for climate change studies. Instead of climate values, the results of IPCC AR4 results are used as input. From all 18 public models an average has been made at a resolution of 1°. The anomalies of the parameters temperature, precipitation and global radiation and the three scenarios B1, A1B and A2 have been included. With the combination of Meteonorm's current database 1961-90, the interpolation algorithms and the stochastic generation typical years can be calculated for any site, for different scenarios and for any period between 2010 and 2200. From the analysis of variations of year to year and month to month variations of temperature, precipitation and global radiation of the past ten years as well of climate model forecasts (from project prudence, http://prudence.dmi.dk) a simple autoregressive model has been formed which is used to generate realistic monthly time series of future periods. Meteonorm can therefore be used as a relatively simple method to enhance the spatial and temporal resolution instead of using complicated and time consuming downscaling methods based on regional climate models. The combination of Meteonorm, gridded historical (based on work of Luterbach et al.) and IPCC results has been used for studies of vegetation simulation between 1660 and 2600 (publication of first version based on IS92a scenario and limited time period 1950 - 2100: http://www.pbl.nl/images/H5_Part2_van%20CCE_opmaak%28def%29_tcm61-46625.pdf). It's also applicable for other adaptation studies for e.g. road surfaces or building simulation. In Meteonorm 6.1 one scenario (IS92a) and one climate model has been included (Hadley CM3). In the new Meteonorm 7 (coming spring 2011) the model averages of the three above mentioned scenarios of the IPCC AR4 will be included.

Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Skill at Reproducing Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGinnis, S. A.; Tye, M. R.; Nychka, D. W.; Mearns, L. O.

2015-12-01

Climate model outputs usually have much coarser spatial resolution than is needed by impacts models. Although higher resolution can be achieved using regional climate models for dynamical downscaling, further downscaling is often required. The final resolution gap is often closed with a combination of spatial interpolation and bias correction, which constitutes a form of statistical downscaling. We use this technique to downscale regional climate model data and evaluate its skill in reproducing extreme events. We downscale output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset from its native 50-km spatial resolution to the 4-km resolution of University of Idaho's METDATA gridded surface meterological dataset, which derives from the PRISM and NLDAS-2 observational datasets. We operate on the major variables used in impacts analysis at a daily timescale: daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, solar radiation, and winds. To interpolate the data, we use the patch recovery method from the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) regridding package. We then bias correct the data using Kernel Density Distribution Mapping (KDDM), which has been shown to exhibit superior overall performance across multiple metrics. Finally, we evaluate the skill of this technique in reproducing extreme events by comparing raw and downscaled output with meterological station data in different bioclimatic regions according to the the skill scores defined by Perkins et al in 2013 for evaluation of AR4 climate models. We also investigate techniques for improving bias correction of values in the tails of the distributions. These techniques include binned kernel density estimation, logspline kernel density estimation, and transfer functions constructed by fitting the tails with a generalized pareto distribution.

Diagnosis of an intense atmospheric river impacting the pacific northwest: Storm summary and offshore vertical structure observed with COSMIC satellite retrievals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neiman, P.J.; Ralph, F.M.; Wick, G.A.; Kuo, Y.-H.; Wee, T.-K.; Ma, Z.; Taylor, G.H.; Dettinger, M.D.

2008-01-01

This study uses the new satellite-based Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission to retrieve tropospheric profiles of temperature and moisture over the data-sparse eastern Pacific Ocean. The COSMIC retrievals, which employ a global positioning system radio occultation technique combined with "first-guess" information from numerical weather prediction model analyses, are evaluated through the diagnosis of an intense atmospheric river (AR; i.e., a narrow plume of strong water vapor flux) that devastated the Pacific Northwest with flooding rains in early November 2006. A detailed analysis of this AR is presented first using conventional datasets and highlights the fact that ARs are critical contributors to West Coast extreme precipitation and flooding events. Then, the COSMIC evaluation is provided. Offshore composite COSMIC soundings north of, within, and south of this AR exhibited vertical structures that are meteorologically consistent with satellite imagery and global reanalysis fields of this case and with earlier composite dropsonde results from other landfalling ARs. Also, a curtain of 12 offshore COSMIC soundings through the AR yielded cross-sectional thermodynamic and moisture structures that were similarly consistent, including details comparable to earlier aircraft-based dropsonde analyses. The results show that the new COSMIC retrievals, which are global (currently yielding ???2000 soundings per day), provide high-resolution vertical-profile information beyond that found in the numerical model first-guess fields and can help monitor key lower-tropospheric mesoscale phenomena in data-sparse regions. Hence, COSMIC will likely support a wide array of applications, from physical process studies to data assimilation, numerical weather prediction, and climate research. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Mid-Miocene cooling and the extinction of tundra in continental Antarctica

PubMed Central

Lewis, Adam R.; Marchant, David R.; Ashworth, Allan C.; Hedenäs, Lars; Hemming, Sidney R.; Johnson, Jesse V.; Leng, Melanie J.; Machlus, Malka L.; Newton, Angela E.; Raine, J. Ian; Willenbring, Jane K.; Williams, Mark; Wolfe, Alexander P.

2008-01-01

A major obstacle in understanding the evolution of Cenozoic climate has been the lack of well dated terrestrial evidence from high-latitude, glaciated regions. Here, we report the discovery of exceptionally well preserved fossils of lacustrine and terrestrial organisms from the McMurdo Dry Valleys sector of the Transantarctic Mountains for which we have established a precise radiometric chronology. The fossils, which include diatoms, palynomorphs, mosses, ostracodes, and insects, represent the last vestige of a tundra community that inhabited the mountains before stepped cooling that first brought a full polar climate to Antarctica. Paleoecological analyses, 40Ar/39Ar analyses of associated ash fall, and climate inferences from glaciological modeling together suggest that mean summer temperatures in the region cooled by at least 8°C between 14.07 ± 0.05 Ma and 13.85 ± 0.03 Ma. These results provide novel constraints for the timing and amplitude of middle-Miocene cooling in Antarctica and reveal the ecological legacy of this global climate transition. PMID:18678903

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleoclimate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, B. J.; Thyer, M. A.; Kuczera, G. A.

2012-12-01

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. To characterize long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate and instrumental data describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yrs is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run-lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. Model selection techniques were used to determine a suitable stochastic model to simulate these run-lengths. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, was found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and was rejected in favor of a gamma distribution. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. Application to two high-quality rainfall sites close to water supply reservoirs found that mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry state was 15%-28% lower than the wet state. The model was able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multi-year accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations for the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive AR(1) model was unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Furthermore, analysis of the impact of the CIMSS framework on drought risk analysis found that short-term drought risks conditional on IPO/PDO state were considerably higher than the traditional AR(1) model.hort-term conditional water supply drought risks for the CIMSS and AR(1) models for the dry IPO-PDO scenario with a range of initial storage levels expressed as a proportion of the annual demand (yield).

Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Jinsoo; Choi, Jisun; Choi, Chuluong; Park, Soyoung

2013-05-01

This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, South Korea, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). First, a LULC change model was developed using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 storylines and logistic regression. Three scenarios (climate change only, LULC change only, and climate and LULC change combined) were established, and the streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Under climate change only, streamflow increased in spring and winter but decreased in summer and autumn, whereas LULC change increased high flow during wet periods but decreased low flow in dry periods. Although the LULC change had less effect than climate change on the changes in streamflow, the effect of LULC change on streamflow was significant. The result for the combined scenario was similar to that of the climate change only scenario, but with larger seasonal changes in streamflow. Although the effects of LULC change were smaller than those caused by climate change, LULC changes may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by climate change. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land-Use and Climate : first results from the LUCID experiments ; implications for experimental design in IPCC-AR5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Noblet, N.; Pitman, A.; Participants, Lucid

2009-04-01

The project "Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts" (LUCID) was conceived under the auspices of IGBP-iLEAPS and GEWEX-GLASS, to address the robustness of 'local' and possible remote impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes (LCC). LUCID explores, using methodologies that major climate modelling groups recognise, those impacts of LCC that are robust - that is, above the noise generated by model variability and consistent across a suite of climate models. To start with, seven climate models were run, in ensemble mode (5 realisations per 31-years long experiment), with prescribed observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice extent (SIc). Pre-industrial and present-day simulations were used to explore the impacts of biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change. The imposed LCC perturbation led to statistically significant changes in latent heat flux and near-surface temperature over the regions of land cover change, but few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of land cover change. They also highlight a dilemma for both historical hind-casts and future projections; land cover change is regionally important, but it is not feasible within the time frame of the next IPCC (AR5) assessment to implement this change commonly across multiple models. Further analysis are in progress and will be presented to identify the continental regions where changes in LCC may have been more important than the combined changes in SSTs, SIc and CO2 between the pre-industrial times and nowadays.

Emission or atmospheric processes? An attempt to attribute the source of large bias of aerosols in eastern China simulated by global climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Tianyi; Liu, Xiaohong; Ma, Po -Lun

Here, global climate models often underestimate aerosol loadings in China, and these biases can have significant implications for anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. The biases may be caused by either the emission inventory or the treatment of aerosol processes in the models, or both, but so far no consensus has been reached. In this study, a relatively new emission inventory based on energy statistics and technology, Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), is used to drive the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to evaluate aerosol distribution and radiative effects against observations in China. The model results aremore » compared with the model simulations with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) emission inventory. We find that the new MEIC emission improves the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations in eastern China and explains 22–28 % of the AOD low bias simulated with the AR5 emission. However, AOD is still biased low in eastern China. Seasonal variation of the MEIC emission leads to a better agreement with the observed seasonal variation of primary aerosols than the AR5 emission, but the concentrations are still underestimated. This implies that the atmospheric loadings of primary aerosols are closely related to the emission, which may still be underestimated over eastern China. In contrast, the seasonal variations of secondary aerosols depend more on aerosol processes (e.g., gas- and aqueous-phase production from precursor gases) that are associated with meteorological conditions and to a lesser extent on the emission. It indicates that the emissions of precursor gases for the secondary aerosols alone cannot explain the low bias in the model. Aerosol secondary production processes in CAM5 should also be revisited. The simulation using MEIC estimates the annual-average aerosol direct radiative effects (ADREs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere to be –5.02, –18.47, and 13.45 W m –2, respectively, over eastern China, which are enhanced by –0.91, –3.48, and 2.57 W m –2 compared with the AR5 emission. The differences of ADREs by using MEIC and AR5 emissions are larger than the decadal changes of the modeled ADREs, indicating the uncertainty of the emission inventories. This study highlights the importance of improving both the emission and aerosol secondary production processes in modeling the atmospheric aerosols and their radiative effects. Yet, if the estimations of MEIC emissions in trace gases do not suffer similar biases to those in the AOD, our findings will help affirm a fundamental error in the conversion from precursor gases to secondary aerosols as hinted in other recent studies following different approaches.« less

Emission or atmospheric processes? An attempt to attribute the source of large bias of aerosols in eastern China simulated by global climate models

DOE PAGES

Fan, Tianyi; Liu, Xiaohong; Ma, Po -Lun; ...

2018-02-01

Here, global climate models often underestimate aerosol loadings in China, and these biases can have significant implications for anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. The biases may be caused by either the emission inventory or the treatment of aerosol processes in the models, or both, but so far no consensus has been reached. In this study, a relatively new emission inventory based on energy statistics and technology, Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), is used to drive the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to evaluate aerosol distribution and radiative effects against observations in China. The model results aremore » compared with the model simulations with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) emission inventory. We find that the new MEIC emission improves the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations in eastern China and explains 22–28 % of the AOD low bias simulated with the AR5 emission. However, AOD is still biased low in eastern China. Seasonal variation of the MEIC emission leads to a better agreement with the observed seasonal variation of primary aerosols than the AR5 emission, but the concentrations are still underestimated. This implies that the atmospheric loadings of primary aerosols are closely related to the emission, which may still be underestimated over eastern China. In contrast, the seasonal variations of secondary aerosols depend more on aerosol processes (e.g., gas- and aqueous-phase production from precursor gases) that are associated with meteorological conditions and to a lesser extent on the emission. It indicates that the emissions of precursor gases for the secondary aerosols alone cannot explain the low bias in the model. Aerosol secondary production processes in CAM5 should also be revisited. The simulation using MEIC estimates the annual-average aerosol direct radiative effects (ADREs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere to be –5.02, –18.47, and 13.45 W m –2, respectively, over eastern China, which are enhanced by –0.91, –3.48, and 2.57 W m –2 compared with the AR5 emission. The differences of ADREs by using MEIC and AR5 emissions are larger than the decadal changes of the modeled ADREs, indicating the uncertainty of the emission inventories. This study highlights the importance of improving both the emission and aerosol secondary production processes in modeling the atmospheric aerosols and their radiative effects. Yet, if the estimations of MEIC emissions in trace gases do not suffer similar biases to those in the AOD, our findings will help affirm a fundamental error in the conversion from precursor gases to secondary aerosols as hinted in other recent studies following different approaches.« less

Assessment of simulated aerosol effective radiative forcings in the terrestrial spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyn, Irene; Block, Karoline; Mülmenstädt, Johannes; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Kühne, Philipp; Salzmann, Marc; Quaas, Johannes

2017-01-01

In its fifth assessment report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a best estimate of the effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to anthropogenic aerosol at -0.9 W m-2. This value is considerably weaker than the estimate of -1.2 W m-2 in AR4. A part of the difference can be explained by an offset of +0.2 W m-2 which AR5 added to all published estimates that only considered the solar spectrum, in order to account for adjustments in the terrestrial spectrum. We find that, in the CMIP5 multimodel median, the ERF in the terrestrial spectrum is small, unless microphysical effects on ice- and mixed-phase clouds are parameterized. In the latter case it is large but accompanied by a very strong ERF in the solar spectrum. The total adjustments can be separated into microphysical adjustments (aerosol "effects") and thermodynamic adjustments. Using a kernel technique, we quantify the latter and find that the rapid thermodynamic adjustments of water vapor and temperature profiles are small. Observation-based constraints on these model results are urgently needed.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D; Galbraith, David R; Moghim, Sanaz; Levine, Naomi M; Bras, Rafael L; Coe, Michael T; Costa, Marcos H; Malhi, Yadvinder; Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; McKnight, Shawna; Wang, Jingfeng; Moorcroft, Paul R

2015-02-20

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO 2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO 2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO 2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO 2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Scenarios of atmospheric rivers affecting Western Europe during the XXI Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2017-04-01

Extreme precipitation events in Europe during the winter half of the year have major socio-economic impacts associated with floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. In recent years, a number of works have shed new light on the role played by Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in Europe as was the case in major historical floods in Duero (Pereira et al., 2016) and Tagus (Trigo et al., 2015) rivers in Iberia. We analyse ARs reaching Europe, for the extended winter months (October to March), in simulations from six CMIP5 global climate models (CGMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980-2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074- 2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980-2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia (Ramos et al., 2016). References: Pereira et al., (2016) Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 371-390. Ramos et al., (2016) Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9315-9323. Trigo et al., (2015) The record precipitation and flood event in Iberia in December 1876: description and synoptic analysis, Front. Earth Sci. 2:3. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning (PTDC/ATPGEO/1660/2014) funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/ SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET): Scaling the Earth System Grid to Petascale Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2007-09-27

This report, which summarizes work carried out by the ESG-CET during the period April 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007, includes discussion of overall progress, period goals, highlights, collaborations and presentations. To learn more about our project, please visit the Earth System Grid website. In addition, this report will be forwarded to the DOE SciDAC project management, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) project management, national and international stakeholders (e.g., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES), etc.), and collaborators. Themore » ESG-CET executive committee consists of David Bernholdt, ORNL; Ian Foster, ANL; Don Middleton, NCAR; and Dean Williams, LLNL. The ESG-CET team is a collective of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include seven laboratories (ANL, LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, ORNL, PMEL) and one university (ISI/USC); all work in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders and domain researchers and scientists. During this semi-annual reporting period, the ESG-CET increased its efforts on completing requirement documents, framework design, and component prototyping. As we strove to complete and expand the overall ESG-CET architectural plans and use-case scenarios to fit our constituency's scope of use, we continued to provide production-level services to the community. These services continued for IPCC AR4, CCES, and CCSM, and were extended to include Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) data.« less

WebStart WEPS: Remote data access and model execution functionality added to WEPS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) is a daily time step, process based wind erosion model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS). WEPS simulates climate and management driven changes to the surface/vegetation/soil state on a daily b...

Synoptic evolution of Atmospheric River landfalls in Northern California and the pre-conditioning of their characteristics by the climate state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gershunov, A.; Guirguis, K.; Shulgina, T.; Clemesha, R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) contribute the lion's share of water resources for California, but can also cause flooding and draw heavily on emergency resources of state and local governments. Comprehensive probabilistic tools relating landfalling ARs to pre-existing weather/climate conditions could be useful for subseasonal forecasting, emergency preparedness and water resource management. We examine ARs targeting the Northern California coast using long-term observations of synoptic-scale circulation, high-resolution precipitation, and a seven-decade-long catalog of AR landfalls to quantify distinct orientations of landfalling ARs. Using a probabilistic approach to relate these historic events to precursor weather patterns, we identify synoptic circulation patterns that precede AR landfalls at various lead times in the range of 0-30 days. Examination of the evolution of these precursor patterns reveals subtle but important differences in the atmospheric states that lead to AR landfalls versus those that don't. Synoptic precursors can also differentiate between orientations of ARs at landfall, which produce rather different precipitation patterns over the region's complex topography. Moreover, low-frequency climate forcing appears to modulate the likelihood of AR landfalls, as well as their preferred orientations. These results provide a link between seasonal and subseasonal timescales and suggest a new approach toward extended-range prediction of land-falling atmospheric rivers and their related precipitation.

Augmented reality in a tumor resection model.

PubMed

Chauvet, Pauline; Collins, Toby; Debize, Clement; Novais-Gameiro, Lorraine; Pereira, Bruno; Bartoli, Adrien; Canis, Michel; Bourdel, Nicolas

2018-03-01

Augmented Reality (AR) guidance is a technology that allows a surgeon to see sub-surface structures, by overlaying pre-operative imaging data on a live laparoscopic video. Our objectives were to evaluate a state-of-the-art AR guidance system in a tumor surgical resection model, comparing the accuracy of the resection with and without the system. Our system has three phases. Phase 1: using the MRI images, the kidney's and pseudotumor's surfaces are segmented to construct a 3D model. Phase 2: the intra-operative 3D model of the kidney is computed. Phase 3: the pre-operative and intra-operative models are registered, and the laparoscopic view is augmented with the pre-operative data. We performed a prospective experimental study on ex vivo porcine kidneys. Alginate was injected into the parenchyma to create pseudotumors measuring 4-10 mm. The kidneys were then analyzed by MRI. Next, the kidneys were placed into pelvictrainers, and the pseudotumors were laparoscopically resected. The AR guidance system allows the surgeon to see tumors and margins using classical laparoscopic instruments, and a classical screen. The resection margins were measured microscopically to evaluate the accuracy of resection. Ninety tumors were segmented: 28 were used to optimize the AR software, and 62 were used to randomly compare surgical resection: 29 tumors were resected using AR and 33 without AR. The analysis of our pathological results showed 4 failures (tumor with positive margins) (13.8%) in the AR group, and 10 (30.3%) in the Non-AR group. There was no complete miss in the AR group, while there were 4 complete misses in the non-AR group. In total, 14 (42.4%) tumors were completely missed or had a positive margin in the non-AR group. Our AR system enhances the accuracy of surgical resection, particularly for small tumors. Crucial information such as resection margins and vascularization could also be displayed.

Methane emissions associated with the conversion of marshland to cropland and climate change on the Sanjiang Plain of Northeast China from 1950 to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Huang, Y.; Zhang, W.; Yu, Y. Q.

2012-05-01

Wetland loss and climate change are known to alter regional and global methane (CH4) budgets. Over the last six decades, an extensive area of marshland has been converted to cropland on the Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China, and a significant increase in air temperature has also been observed there, while the impacts on regional CH4 budgets remain uncertain. Through model simulation, we estimated the changes in CH4 emissions associated with the conversion of marshland to cropland and climate change in this area. Model simulations indicated a significant reduction of 1.1 Tg yr-1 from the 1950s to the 2000s in regional CH4 emissions. The cumulative reduction of CH4 from 1960 to 2009 was estimated to be ~36 Tg relative to the 1950s, and marshland conversion and the climate contributed 86 % and 14 % of this change, respectively. Interannual variation in precipitation (linear trend with P > 0.2) contributed to yearly fluctuations in CH4 emissions, but the relatively lower amount of precipitation over the period 1960-2009 (47 mm yr-1 lower on average than in the 1950s) contributed ~91 % of the reduction in the area-weighted CH4 flux. Global warming at a rate of 0.3 °C per decade (P < 0.001) has increased CH4 emissions significantly since the 1990s. Relative to the mean of the 1950s, the warming-induced increase in the CH4 flux has averaged 19 kg ha-1 yr-1 over the last two decades. For the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the fifth IPCC assessment report (AR5), the CH4 flux is predicted to increase by 36 %, 52 %, 78 % and 95 %, respectively, by the 2080s compared to 1961-1990 in response to climate warming and wetting.

High-precision 14C and 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Campanian Ignimbrite (Y-5) reconciles the time-scales of climatic-cultural processes at 40 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giacco, Biagio; Hajdas, Irka; Isaia, Roberto; Deino, Alan; Nomade, Sebastien

2017-04-01

The Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) super-eruption ( 40 ka, Southern Italy) is the largest known volcanic event of Mediterranean area. The CI tephra is widely dispersed through western Eurasia and occurs in close stratigraphic association with significant Late Pleistocene paleoclimatic and Paleolithic cultural events. This makes the CI tephra one of the most important tool for investigating several scientific issues ranging from volcanology, paleoclimatology to archaeology. Yet despite concerted attempts, the absolute age of the CI eruption is not well constrained. Here we present the first direct radiocarbon age for the CI obtained using accepted modern practices, from multiple 14C analyses of an exceptional large charred tree branch embedded in the lithified Yellow Tuff facies of the CI pyroclastic flow deposits, as well as new high-precision 40Ar/39Ar dating for the CI. These data substantially improve upon previous age determinations and permit fuller exploitation of the chronological potential of the CI tephra marker. Specifically, the results of our study are twofold: they provide (i) a robust pair of 14C and 40Ar/39Ar ages for refining both the radiocarbon calibration curve and the Late Pleistocene time-scale in the narrow, but significant time-span across CI event and (ii) compelling chronological evidence for the significance of the combined influence of the CI eruption and Heinrich Event 4 on European climate and potentially evolutionary processes of the Early Upper Palaeolithic.

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2010-04-01

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-modelmore » ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.« less

Sensitivity of Boreal-Summer Circulation and Precipitation to Atmospheric Aerosols in Selected Regions: Part I Africa and India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sud, Yogesh C.; Wilcox, Eric; Lau, William K.

2009-10-23

Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4) General Circulation Model (GCM) was employed to assess the influence of potential changes in aerosols on the regional circulation, ambient temperatures, and precipitation in four selected regions: India and Africa (current paper), as well as North and South America (companion paper). Ensemble-simulations were carried out with the GCM to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effects, hereafter ADE and AIE. Each simulation was started from the NCEP-analyzed initial conditions for May 1 and was integrated through May-June-July-August of each year: 1982-1987 to provide an ensemble set of six simulations. In the firstmore » set, called the baseline experiment (#1), climatological aerosols were prescribed. The next two experiments (#2 and #3) had two sets of simulations each: one with 2X and another with 1/2X the climatological aerosols over each of the four selected regions. In experiment#2, the anomaly regions were advectively restricted (AR), i.e., the large-scale prognostic fields outside the aerosol anomaly regions were prescribed while in experiment#3, the anomaly regions were advectively Interactive (AI) as is the case in a normal GCM integrations, but with the same aerosols anomalies as in experiment #2. Intercomparisons of circulation, diabatic heating, and precipitation difference fields showed large disparities among the AR and AI simulations, which raised serious questions about the AR assumption, commonly invoked in regional climate simulation studies. Consequently AI simulation mode was chosen for the subsequent studies. Two more experiments (#4 and #5) were performed in the AI mode in which ADE and AIE were activated one at a time. The results showed that ADE and AIE work in concert to make the joint influences larger than sum of each acting alone. Moreover, the ADE and AIE influences were vastly different for the Indian and Africa regions, which suggest an imperative need to include them rationally in climate models. We also found that the aerosol induced increase of tropical cirrus clouds would potentially offset any cirrus thinning that may occur due to global warming in response to CO2 increase.« less

Evaluation of surface water budget and assessment the global water cycle for the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, H.; Park, E.; Kwon, W.

2009-12-01

Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies, because humans require water for their survival. Especially, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. The goal of this study is to assess the closure and annual variations of the water cycles based on the multi-model ensemble approach. In this study, the projection results of the previous works focusing on global and six sub-regions are updated using sixteen atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Before projecting future climate, model performances are evaluated on the simulation of the present-day climate. From the result, we construct and use mainly multi-model ensembles (MMEs), which is referred to as MME9, defined from nine selected AOGCMs of higher performance. Analyzed variables include annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. The overall projection results from MME9 show that most regions will experience warmer and wetter climate at the end of 21st century. The evaporation shows a very similar trend to precipitation, but not in the runoff projection. The internal and inter-model variabilities are larger in the runoff than both precipitation and evaporation. Moreover, the runoff is notably reduced in Europe at the end of 21st century.

Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.

PubMed

Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

2014-08-19

Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.

US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

2013-12-01

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact studies.

A common fallacy in climate model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Tachiiri, K.

2012-04-01

We discuss the assessment of model ensembles such as that arising from the CMIP3 coordinated multi-model experiments. An important aspect of this is not merely the closeness of the models to observations in absolute terms but also the reliability of the ensemble spread as an indication of uncertainty. In this context, it has been widely argued that the multi-model ensemble of opportunity is insufficiently broad to adequately represent uncertainties regarding future climate change. For example, the IPCC AR4 summarises the consensus with the sentence: "Those studies also suggest that the current AOGCMs may not cover the full range of uncertainty for climate sensitivity." Similar claims have been made in the literature for other properties of the climate system, including the transient climate response and efficiency of ocean heat uptake. Comparison of model outputs with observations of the climate system forms an essential component of model assessment and is crucial for building our confidence in model predictions. However, methods for undertaking this comparison are not always clearly justified and understood. Here we show that the popular approach which forms the basis for the above claims, of comparing the ensemble spread to a so-called "observationally-constrained pdf", can be highly misleading. Such a comparison will almost certainly result in disagreement, but in reality tells us little about the performance of the ensemble. We present an alternative approach based on an assessment of the predictive performance of the ensemble, and show how it may lead to very different, and rather more encouraging, conclusions. We additionally outline some necessary conditions for an ensemble (or more generally, a probabilistic prediction) to be challenged by an observation.

Making climate change projections relevant to water management: opportunities and challenges in the Colorado River basin (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vano, J. A.

2013-12-01

By 2007, motivated by the ongoing drought and release of new climate model projections associated with the IPCC AR4 report, multiple independent studies had made estimates of future Colorado River streamflow. Each study had a unique approach, and unique estimate for the magnitude for mid-21st century streamflow change ranging from declines of only 6% to declines of as much as 45%. The differences among studies provided for interesting scientific debates, but to many practitioners this appeared to be just a tangle of conflicting predictions, leading to the question 'why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted?' In response, a group of scientists from academic and federal agencies, brought together through a NOAA cross-RISA project, set forth to identify the major sources of disparities and provide actionable science and guidance for water managers and decision makers. Through this project, four major sources of disparities among modeling studies were identified that arise from both methodological and model differences. These differences, in order of importance, are: (1) the Global Climate Models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; (2) the ability of land surface hydrology and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high elevation runoff source areas; (3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and (4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. Additionally, reconstructions of pre-instrumental streamflows provided further insights about the greatest risk to Colorado River streamflow of a multi-decadal drought, like those observed in paleo reconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. Within this talk I will provide an overview of these findings and insights into the opportunities and challenges encountered in the process of striving to make climate change projections more useful to water managers and decision makers.

Effects of Regional Climate Change on the Wave Conditions in the Western Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreier, N.; Fröhle, P.

2017-12-01

The local wave climate in the Western Baltic Sea is mainly generated by the local wind field over the area. Long-term changes of the local wind conditions that are induced e.g. by regional climate change, directly affect the local wave climate and other local wind driven coastal processes like e.g. the longshore sediment transport. The changes of the local wave climate play an important role for the safe functional and structural design of new, or the adaption of existing, coastal protection structures as well as for the assessment of long-term morphological changes of the coastline. In this study, the wave model SWAN is used for the calculation of hourly wave conditions in the Western Baltic Sea between 1960 and 2100. Future wind conditions from two regional climate models (Cosmo-CLM and REMO) that have been forced by different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios used within AR4 (A1B, B1) and AR5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of IPCC are used as input for the wave model. The changes of the average wave conditions are analyzed from comparisons between the 30 years averages for the future (e.g. 2071-2100) and the reference period 1971-2000. Regarding the emission scenarios A1B and B1, a significant change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height at westerly wind exposed locations with predominant higher values up to +10% is found (cf. Fig. 1). In contrast, the change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height is more weak at easterly wind exposed locations, resulting in higher and lower values between -5% to +5%. Moreover, more wave events from W-NW and fewer events from N-NE can be expected, due to changes of the frequency of occurrence of the 30 years averages of mean wave direction. The changes of extreme wave heights are analyzed based on methods of extreme value analysis and the time series of wave parameters at selected locations nearby the German Baltic Sea coast. No robust changes of the significant wave heights with a return period of 200 years are found for the emission scenarios A1B and B1. Both increases and decreases of the extreme wave heights are possible within a range of -18% to +18% (-0.5m to +0.5m). In the presentation, we will show results from the assessment of the changes of the wave conditions for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and discuss possible impacts for the German Baltic Sea coast.

Diversity in Detection Algorithms for Atmospheric Rivers: A Community Effort to Understand the Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shields, C. A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Rutz, J. J.; Wehner, M. F.; Ralph, M.; Ruby, L.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow filamentary structures that transport large amounts of moisture in the lower layers of the atmosphere, typically from subtropical regions to mid-latitudes. ARs play an important role in regional hydroclimate by supplying significant amounts of precipitation that can alleviate drought, or in extreme cases, produce dangerous floods. Accurately detecting, or tracking, ARs is important not only for weather forecasting, but is also necessary to understand how these events may change under global warming. Detection algorithms are used on both regional and global scales, and most accurately, using high resolution datasets, or model output. Different detection algorithms can produce different answers. Detection algorithms found in the current literature fall broadly into two categories: "time-stitching", where the AR is tracked with a Lagrangian approach through time and space; and "counting", where ARs are identified for a single point in time for a single location. Counting routines can be further subdivided into algorithms that use absolute thresholds with specific geometry, to algorithms that use relative thresholds, to algorithms based on statistics, to pattern recognition and machine learning techniques. With such a large diversity in detection code, differences in AR tracking and "counts" can vary widely from technique to technique. Uncertainty increases for future climate scenarios, where the difference between relative and absolute thresholding produce vastly different counts, simply due to the moister background state in a warmer world. In an effort to quantify the uncertainty associated with tracking algorithms, the AR detection community has come together to participate in ARTMIP, the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project. Each participant will provide AR metrics to the greater group by applying their code to a common reanalysis dataset. MERRA2 data was chosen for both temporal and spatial resolution. After completion of this first phase, Tier 1, ARTMIP participants may choose to contribute to Tier 2, which will range from reanalysis uncertainty, to analysis of future climate scenarios from high resolution model output. ARTMIP's experimental design, techniques, and preliminary metrics will be presented.

Downscale climate change scenarios over the Western Himalayan region of India using multi-generation CMIP experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Lalu; Meher, Jitendra K.; Akhter, Javed

2017-04-01

Assessing climate change information over the Western Himalayan Region (WHR) of India is crucial but challenging task due to its limited numbers of station data containing huge missing values. The issues of missing values of station data were replaced the Multiple Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) technique. Finally 22 numbers of rain gauge stations having continuous data during 1901-2005 and 16 numbers stations having continuous temperature data during 1969-2009 were considered as " reference stations for assessing rainfall and temperature trends in addition to evaluation of the GCMs available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) over WRH. Station data indicates that the winter warming is higher and rapid (1.05oC) than other seasons and less warming in the post monsoon season in the last 41 years. Area averaged using 22 station data indicates that monsoon and winter rainfall has decreased by -5 mm and -320 mm during 1901-2000 while pre-monsoon and post monsoon showed an increasing trends of 21 mm and 13 mm respectively. Present study is constructed the downscaled climate change information at station locations (22 and 16 stations for rainfall and temperature respectively) over the WHR from the GCMs commonly available in the IPCC's different generations assessment reports namely 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th thereafter known as SAR, TAR, AR4 and AR5 respectively. Once the downscaled results are obtained for each generation model outputs, then a comparison of studies is carried out from the results of each generation. Finally an overall model improvement index (OMII) is developed using the downscaling results which is used to investigate the model improvement across generations as well as the improvement of downscaling results obtained from the empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) methods. In general, the results indicate that there is a gradual improvement of GCMs simulations as well as downscaling results across generation. Key words: MICE Techniques, CMIP3, CMIP5, ESD and OMII

Feldspar 40Ar/39Ar dating of ICDP PALEOVAN cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelhardt, Jonathan Franz; Sudo, Masafumi; Stockhecke, Mona; Oberhänsli, Roland

2017-11-01

Volcaniclastic fall deposits in ICDP drilling cores from Lake Van, Turkey, contain sodium-rich sanidine and calcium-rich anorthoclase, which both comprise a variety of textural zoning and inclusions. An age model records the lake's history and is based on climate-stratigraphic correlations, tephrostratigraphy, paleomagnetics, and earlier 40Ar/39Ar analyses (Stockhecke et al., 2014b). Results from total fusion and stepwise heating 40Ar/39Ar analyses presented in this study allow for the comparison of radiometric constraints from texturally diversified feldspar and the multi-proxy lacustrine age model and vice versa. This study has investigated several grain-size fractions of feldspar from 13 volcaniclastic units. The feldspars show textural features that are visible in cathodoluminescence (CL) or back-scattered electron (BSE) images and can be subdivided into three dominant zoning-types: (1) compositional zoning, (2) round pseudo-oscillatory zoning and (3) resorbed and patchy zoning (Ginibre et al., 2004). Round pseudo-oscillatory zoning records a sensitive alternation of Fe and Ca that also reflects resorption processes. This is only visible in CL images. Compositional zoning reflects anticorrelated anorthite and orthoclase contents and is visible in BSE. Eleven inverse isochron ages from total fusion and three from stepwise heating analyses fit the age model. Four experiments resulted in older inverse isochron ages that do not concur with the model within 2σ uncertainties and that deviate from 1 ka to 17 ka minimum. C- and R-type zoning are interpreted as representing growth in magma chamber cupolas, as wall mushes, or in narrow conduits. Persistent compositions of PO-type crystals and abundant surfaces recording dissolution features correspond to formation within a magma chamber. C-type zoning and R-type zoning have revealed an irregular incorporation of melt and fluid inclusions. These two types of zoning in feldspar are interpreted as preferentially contributing either heterogeneously distributed excess 40Ar or inherited 40Ar to the deviating 40Ar/39Ar ages that are discussed in this study.

Rainwater harvesting possibility under climate change: A basin-scale case study over western province of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Balkhair, Khaled S.; Şen, Zekâi; Masood, Amjad

2017-06-01

Groundwater reservoirs are important water resources all over the world. Especially, they are of utmost significance for arid and semi-arid regions, and therefore, a sustainable exploitation of these reservoirs needs to be ensured. The natural and most exclusive water supplier to groundwater reservoirs in Saudi Arabia is rainfall, which is characterized by sporadic and random temporal and spatial distributions, particularly under the impacts of climate change; giving rise to uncertainty in groundwater recharge quantification. Although in Saudi Arabia, intense and frequent rainfall events are rare, but they generate significant flash floods with huge amounts of surface water. Under such circumstances, any simple but effective water storage augmentation facility such as rainwater harvesting (RWH) structures gain vital importance for sustainability of water supply and survivals in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study is to explore the possibility of RWH over a basin in the western province of Saudi Arabia called Wadi Al-Lith under climate change. Climatic data is obtained from the IPCC AR5 GCMs, which is further downscaled using a regional climate model RegCM4 for the Arabian Peninsula domain. The RegCM4 is driven to simulate climatic parameters including rainfall at 25 km grid resolution for the present climate (1971-2000), and future climate (2006-2099) with representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicate that more durable and longer wet durations are expected with increasing surplus rainfall amounts in the far future because of climate change impacts. Consequently, future climate scenarios are expected to enhance floods and flash floods occurrences, which call for progressive measures to harness the RWH opportunity.

Atmospheric river impacts on Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt and mass balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattingly, K.; Mote, T. L.

2017-12-01

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has accelerated during the early part of the 21st Century. Several episodes of widespread GrIS melt in recent years have coincided with intense poleward moisture transport by atmospheric rivers (ARs), suggesting that variability in the frequency and intensity of these events may be an important driver of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the GrIS. ARs may contribute to GrIS surface melt through the greenhouse effect of water vapor, the radiative effects of clouds, condensational latent heating within poleward-advected air masses, and the energy provided by liquid precipitation. However, ARs may also provide significant positive contributions to GrIS SMB through enhanced snow accumulation. Prior research on the role of ARs in Arctic climate has consisted of case studies of ARs associated with major GrIS melt events or examined the effects of poleward moisture flux on Arctic sea ice. In this study, a long-term (1979-2016) record of intense moisture transport events affecting Greenland is compiled using a conventional AR identification algorithm as well as a self-organizing map (SOM) classification applied to integrated water vapor transport (IVT) data from several atmospheric reanalysis datasets. An analysis of AR effects on GrIS melt and SMB is then performed with GrIS surface melt data from passive microwave satellite observations and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model. Results show that meltwater production is above normal during and after AR impact days throughout the GrIS during all seasons, with surface melt enhanced most by strong (> 85th percentile IVT) and extreme (> 95th percentile IVT) ARs. This relationship holds at the seasonal scale, as the total amount of water vapor transported to the GrIS by ARs is significantly greater during above-normal melt seasons. ARs exert a more complex influence on SMB. Normal (< 85th percentile IVT) ARs generally do not have a substantial impact on SMB, while strong and extreme ARs result in reduced SMB in the ablation zone for several days following the event during summer. Conversely, strong and extreme ARs increased SMB in the ablation zone during spring, autumn, and winter, and AR impacts on SMB are positive in the accumulation zone during all seasons.

Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

2010-12-01

Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically downscaled climate projection data will be integrated into future water resource projections in the state of Arizona, through a cooperative effort involving numerous water resource stakeholders.

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

PubMed

Hemming, Debbie; Buontempo, Carlo; Burke, Eleanor; Collins, Mat; Kaye, Neil

2010-11-28

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

Decadal Recruitment and Mortality of Ponderosa pine Predicted for the 21st Century Under five Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ironside, K. E.; Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Shaw, J. D.; Cobb, N. S.

2008-12-01

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) is the dominant conifer in higher elevation regions of the southwestern United States. Because this species is so prominent, southwestern montane ecosystems will be significantly altered if this species is strongly affected by future climate changes. These changes could be highly challenging for land management agencies. In order to model the consequences of future climates, 20th Century recruitment events and mortality for ponderosa pine were characterized using measures of seasonal water balance (precipitation - potential evapotranspiration). These relationships, assuming they will remain unchanged, were then used to predict 21st Century changes in ponderosa pine occurrence in the southwest. Twenty-one AR4 IPCC General Circulation Model (GCM) A1B simulation results were ranked on their ability to simulate the later 20th Century (1950-2000 AD) precipitation seasonality, spatial patterns, and quantity in the western United States. Among the top ranked GCMs, five were selected for downscaling to a 4 km grid that represented a range in predictions in terms of changes in water balance. Predicted decadal changes in southwestern ponderosa pine for the 21st Century for these five climate change scenarios were calculated using a multiple quadratic logistic regression model. Similar models of other western tree species (Pinus edulis, Yucca brevifolia) predicted severe contractions, especially in the southern half of their ranges. However, the results for Ponderosa pine suggested future expansions throughout its range to both higher and lower elevations, as well as very significant expansions northward.

ARS NP212 Climate change, soils and emissions program update

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Research Service National Program 212 (Climate Change, Soils, and Emissions) has a significant component focused on air quality studies. Presented here for the Agricultural Air Quality Task Force is an update on the status of ARS programs with focus on air quality. National Program ...

Reply to the Comment on "Astronomical constraints on the duration of the Early Jurassic Pliensbachian Stage and global climatic fluctuations" [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 455 (2016) 149-165

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinnov, Linda A.; Ruhl, Micha; Hesselbo, Stephen P.

2018-01-01

Smith and Bailey (2018) (henceforth SB17) criticize methods employed in our recent study of a highly cyclic calcium (Ca) series measured through the Early Jurassic, Pliensbachian-age, marine succession of the Llanbedr (Mochras Farm) core, referred to as Mochras (Ruhl et al., 2016, henceforth R16). In particular SB17 focus on the red noise spectral models calculated in R16. Here we clarify the red noise models displayed in Fig. 5 and Supplementary Figs. 4 and 5 of R16, and comment further on estimating power spectra and AR1 red noise model spectra. We highlight effects from nonrandom data variation, sampling and pre-whitening on red noise model estimation, and concur with SB17 that red noise modeling should not be applied with a "boiler-plate" approach. Using the Mochras Ca series as an example, we discuss practical solutions that can be used for other cyclostratigraphic data presenting similar issues. In summary, whereas SB17 advocate alternative red noise models, e.g., bent power law models, we show that modest adjustments to the data can dramatically improve the fit between AR1 red noise and data spectra.

Reassessing Storm Surge Risk for New York City (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2013-12-01

New York City (NYC) is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) storm surge flooding. In a previous study, we coupled a (reanalysis- or GCM-driven) hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under observed and projected climates and assess surge threat for NYC. The storm surge return levels under the current and future climates (IPCC AR4 A1B scenario) were obtained. The results showed that the distribution of surge levels may shift to higher values in the future by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise. The study focused on typical TCs that have a storm size of the climatological mean for the Atlantic Basin and pass within a 200-km radius of the Battery, NYC. In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy, a barely Category-1 storm that made landfall about 200-km southwest from the Battery, caused the highest surge flooding of the instrumental record (~3.5 m above the mean sea level or ~2.8 m surge over the high tide) at the Battery. The extreme surge was due to the fact that the storm was a 'hybrid' event, undergoing extensive extratropical transition when making landfall almost perpendicularly to the NJ coast with an unusually large size. Sandy's case calls for a reassessment of storm surge risk for NYC that account for the special features of the storms in this region. In this reassessment, we account for the effect of extratropical transition on the wind fields through improving the surface background wind estimation, which was assumed to be uniform for typical TCs, by developing a representation of the interaction between the highly localized potential vorticity anomaly of the TC and its environmental baroclinic fields. We account for the storm size variation through incorporating the full probability distribution of the size for the region. Our preliminary results show that estimated wind and surge return levels are much higher with the effect of extratropical transition. The effect of the storm size variation is relatively large in the upper tail of the surge distribution. Also, we will update the prediction for future climates using the IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, and extend our focus area further south to capture storms that can induce high surges at the Battery, although making landfall relatively further away on the NJ coast. The results will be compared with those using the AR4 scenario in our previous study. The combined effects of storm climatology change and sea level rise on the risk of NYC surge flooding will be discussed.

Estimating the potential for methane clathrate instability in the 1%-CO2 IPCC AR-4 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarque, Jean-François

2008-10-01

The recent work of Reagan and Moridis (2007) has shown that even a limited warming of 1 K over 100 years can lead to clathrate destabilization, leading to a significant flux of methane into the ocean water, at least for shallow deposits. Here we study the potential for methane clathrate destabilization by identifying the 100-year temperature increase in the available IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR-4 1%-CO2 increase per year (up to doubling over pre-industrial conditions, which occurs after 70 years) simulations. Depending on assumptions made on the possible locations (in this case, only depth) of methane clathrates and on temperature dependence, our calculation leads to an estimated model-mean release of methane at the bottom of the ocean of approximately 560-2140 Tg(CH4)/year; as no actual geographical distribution of methane clathrates is considered here, these flux estimates must be viewed as upper bound estimates. Using an observed 1% ratio to estimate the amount of methane reaching the atmosphere, our analysis leads to a relatively small methane flux of approximately 5-21 Tg(CH4)/year, with an estimated inter-model standard deviation of approximately 30%. The role of sea-level rise by 2100 will be to further stabilize methane clathrates, albeit to a small amount as the sea-level rise is expected to be less than a few meters.

Making sense of past climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Schulz, Michael

2014-05-01

This presentation will summarize the paleoclimate perspective in IPCC AR5, which combines information from natural archives, paleoclimate simulations using both the CMIP5 framework and other simulations, model-data comparisons for model evaluation at hemispheric to regional scales, detection - attribution, and process studies throughout timescales such as polar amplification, carbon cycle or sea level change. It will highlight new findings and coordinated efforts which, within the scientific community, have allowed new information to emerge on time for AR5. It will also stress the aspects which could not be covered or assessed as well as suggestions for further inclusion of paleoclimate information to inform projections.

Calculating the surface tension of binary solutions of simple fluids of comparable size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitseva, E. S.; Tovbin, Yu. K.

2017-11-01

A molecular theory based on the lattice gas model (LGM) is used to calculate the surface tension of one- and two-component planar vapor-liquid interfaces of simple fluids. Interaction between nearest neighbors is considered in the calculations. LGM is applied as a tool of interpolation: the parameters of the model are corrected using experimental surface tension data. It is found that the average accuracy of describing the surface tension of pure substances (Ar, N2, O2, CH4) and their mixtures (Ar-O2, Ar-N2, Ar-CH4, N2-CH4) does not exceed 2%.

Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Long, Charles N.; Wang, Hailong

2012-02-17

Cloud Fraction (CF) is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulations in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM ground measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity, for both inter-model deviation and model-measurement discrepancy. Our intercomparisons of three CF or sky-cover related dataset reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10% (5%) for multi-year monthly (annual) mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The results also show that the model-observation and the inter-model deviations have a similar magnitude for themore » total CF (TCF) and the normalized cloud effect, and they are twice as large as the surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that the other cloud properties, such as cloud optical depth and height, have a similar magnitude of disparity to TCF among the GCMs, and suggests that a better agreement among the GCMs in solar radiative fluxes could be the result of compensating errors in either cloud vertical structure, cloud optical depth or cloud fraction. Similar deviation pattern between inter-model and model-measurement suggests that the climate models tend to generate larger bias against observations for those variables with larger inter-model deviation. The simulated TCF from IPCC AR4 GCMs are very scattered through all seasons over three ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP), Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA). The GCMs perform better at SGP than at Manus and NSA in simulating the seasonal variation and probability distribution of TCF; however, the TCF in these models is remarkably underpredicted and cloud transmissivity is less susceptible to the change of TCF than the observed at SGP. Much larger inter-model deviation and model bias are found over NSA than the other sites in estimating the TCF, cloud transmissivity and cloud-radiation interaction, suggesting that the Arctic region continues to challenge cloud simulations in climate models. Most of the GCMs tend to underpredict CF and fail to capture the seasonal variation of CF at middle and low levels in the tropics. The high altitude CF is much larger in the GCMs than the observation and the inter-model variability of CF also reaches maximum at high levels in the tropics. Most of the GCMs tend to underpredict CF by 50-150% relative to the measurement average at low and middle levels over SGP. While the GCMs generally capture the maximum CF in the boundary layer and vertical variability, the inter-model deviation is largest near surface over the Arctic. The internal variability of CF simulated in ensemble runs with the same model is very minimal.« less

Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

2008-07-01

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

Arctic and Tropical Influence on Extreme Precipitation Events, Atmospheric Rivers, and Associated Isotopic Values in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe-Glynn, S. E.; Johnson, K. R.; Zou, Y.; Welker, J. M.; Strong, C.; Rutz, J. J.; Yu, J. Y.; Yoshimura, K.; Sellars, S. L.; Payne, A. E.

2014-12-01

Extreme precipitation events along the U.S. West Coast can result in major damage and are projected by most climate models to increase in frequency and severity. One of the most prevalent extreme precipitation events that occurs along the west coast of North America are known as 'Atmospheric Rivers' (ARs), whereby extensive fluxes of water vapor are transported from the tropics and/or subtropics, delivering substantial precipitation and contributing to flooding when they encounter mountains. This region is particularly vulnerable to ARs, with 30-50% of annual precipitation in this region occurring from just a few AR events. Because of the tropical and/or subtropical origin of ARs, they can carry unique isotopic properties. Here we present the results of analysis of weekly precipitation data and accompanying isotopic values from Giant Forest, in Sequoia National Park, in the southwestern Sierra Nevada Mountains (36.57° N; 118.78° W; 1921m) from 2001 to 2011. To better characterize these events, we focused on the 10 weeks with the highest precipitation totals (all greater than 150 mm) during the study period. We show that nine of the top ten weeks contain documented 'AR' events and that 90% occurred during the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. A comparison of extreme precipitation events across the Western U.S. with several key climate indices demonstrate these events occur most frequently when the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation is in sync with the negative phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the negative or neutral Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. We also demonstrate that central or eastern Pacific location of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies can further enhance predictive capabilities of the landfall location of extreme precipitation. Stable isotope results show that extreme precipitation events are characterized by highly variable δ18O (-7.20‰ to -19.27‰), however, we find that more negative δ18O values typically occur during the negative PNA pattern. Finally, we will present the results of data comparison with NCAR-NCEP reanalysis, Hysplit back trajectories, and isotope enabled climate model (IsoGSM) results.

(40)Ar/(39)Ar dating of Bed I, Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania, and the chronology of early Pleistocene climate change.

PubMed

Deino, Alan L

2012-08-01

(40)Ar/(39)Ar dating of tuffs and lavas of the late Pleistocene volcanic and sedimentary sequence of Olduvai Gorge, north-central Tanzania, provides the basis for a revision of Bed I chronostratigraphy. Bed I extends from immediately above the Naabi Ignimbrite at 2.038 ± 0.005 Ma to Tuff IF at 1.803 ± 0.002 Ma. Tuff IB, a prominent widespread marker tuff in the basin and a key to understanding hominin evolutionary chronologies and paleoclimate histories, has an age of 1.848 ± 0.003 Ma. The largest lake expansion event in the closed Olduvai lake basin during Bed I times encompassed the episode of eruption and emplacement of this tuff. This lake event is nearly coincident with the maximum precessional insolation peak of the entire Bed I/Lower Bed II interval, calculated from an astronomical model of the boreal summer orbital insolation time-series. The succeeding precessional peak also apparently coincides with the next youngest expansion of paleo-Lake Olduvai. The extreme wet/dry climate shifts seen in the upper part of Bed I occur during an Earth-orbital eccentricity maximum, similar to episodic lake expansions documented elsewhere in the East African Rift during the Neogene. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Approximately 4.35 Ga Ar-Ar Age for GRA 8 and the Complex Chronology of its Parent Body

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, J.; Nyquist, Laurence E.; Bogard, D. D.; Garrison, D. H.; Shih, C.-Y.; Reese, Y. D.

2010-01-01

GRA06128 and GRA06129 (hereafter GRA 8 and GRA 9) are partial melts of a parent body of approximately chondritic composition. We reported a conventional Sm-147-Nd-143 isochron age of 4.559+/-0.096 Ga and a 146 Sm-142Nd model age of 4.549+/-0.036 for combined data for the two rocks. Plagioclase plus whole rock and leachate (approx.phosphate) samples gave a secondary Sm-147-Nd-143 age of 3.4+/-0.4 Ga. An Ar-39-Ar-40 age of 4.460+/-0.028 Ga was interpreted as dating metamorphism in GRA 9. We report Ar-39-Ar-40 ages in the range approx.4344-4366 Ma for GRA 8, establishing similar but different Ar-39-Ar-40 ages for the two rocks, consistent with their different Sr-isotopic systematics, and discuss these ages in the context of the complex sequence of events that affected these samples.

An Approximately 4.35 Ga Ar-Ar Age for GRA 8 and the Complex Chronology of its Parent Body

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, J.; Nyquist, L. E.; Bogard, D. D.; Garrison, D. H.; Shih, C.-Y.; Reese, Y. D.

2010-01-01

GRA06128 and GRA06129 (hereafter GRA 8 and GRA 9) are partial melts of a parent body of approximately chondritic composition. We reported a conventional SM-147Sm-ND_143 isochron age of 4.559 +/-.096 Ga and a SM-146-142Nd model age of 4.549 +/- 0.036 for combined data for the two rocks. Plagioclase plus whole rock and leachate (approximately phosphate) samples gave a secondary SM-147-ND-143 age of 3.4 +/-0.4 Ga. An Ar-39-Ar-40 age of 4.460+/-0.028 Ga was interpreted by as dating metamorphism in GRA 9. We report Ar-39-Ar-40 ages in the range approximately 4344-4366 Ma for GRA 8, establishing similar but different Ar-39-Ar-40 ages for the two rocks, consistent with their different Sr-istopic systematics, and discuss these ages in the context of the complex sequence of events that affected these samples

Detailed Ar-Ar Geochronology of Volcanism at Minna Bluff, Antarctica: Two-Phased Growth and Influence on Ross Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, J. I.; McIntosh, W. C.; Wilch, T. I.

2012-12-01

Minna Bluff has been a significant topographic barrier to the flow of the Ross Ice Shelf since the mid-Miocene. Detailed Ar-Ar analyses of kaersutite and sanidine phenocrysts, and groundmass concentrates from volcanic units indicate an overall west to east progression of volcanic activity. Eruptions of basaltic to intermediate lavas, domes, and scoria cones started at ~12 Ma in at what is now the eastern most point of Minna Bluff, "Minna Hook." Activity was centered in this area for ~4 Ma, constructing a pre-Minna Bluff island. Multiple glacial unconformities found at Minna Hook suggest repeated interaction with large warm-based, erosive ice sheets. Activity migrated westward from Minna Bluff Island at 7-8 Ma closing the gap created by the island and the mainland. Significant edifice construction continued until 4-5 Ma with sporadic and parasitic scoria cone eruptions, possibly associated with Mt. Discovery activity, continuing until 2 Ma. The orientations of Minna Bluff's two major axes are strongly controlled by regional tectonic features. Minna Bluff's E-W axis, McIntosh Cliffs, is sub-parallel to the Radial Lineament and the N-S axis, Minna Hook, appears as extension of faulting bounding the Terror Rift. The constructional evolution of the 70km long volcanic complex has an important role in interpreting the climate signals recovered by the ANDRILL Project. Minna Bluff influenced the material delivered to the AND-1B drill site (ANDRILL MIS 2006-2007) in three critical ways: 1) Minna Bluff diverted upstream material, 2) provided a pinning and stabilizing point for the Ross Ice Shelf, possible controlling the calving line prior to the emergence of Ross Island, and 3) was a significant source of fresh volcanic material throughout much of the period recovered by ANDRILL MIS. For example, a kaersutite-bearing clast recovered from 822.78 mbsf in AND-1B yielded an age of 8.53±0.51 Ma, and was likely derived from Minna Bluff. The results from this study can be incorporated into detailed glacier and ice-sheet models of the McMurdo Sound region, a critical area in the Ross Ice Sheet and global climate system.

Uncovering the role of the East Asian jet stream and heterogeneities in atmospheric rivers affecting the western United States.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele

2018-01-30

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert major socioeconomic repercussions along the US West Coast by inducing heavy rainfall, flooding, strong winds, and storm surge. Despite the significant societal and economic repercussions of these storms, our understanding of the physical drivers responsible for their interannual variability is limited, with different climate modes identified as possible mechanisms. Here we show that the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnections/patterns and the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) exhibit a strong linkage with the total frequency of ARs making landfall over the western United States, much stronger than the other potential climate modes previously considered. While our findings indicate that the PJ pattern and EASJ are the most relevant climate modes driving the overall AR activity, we also uncover heterogeneities in AR tracks. Specifically, we show that not all ARs making landfall along the West Coast come from a single population, but rather that it is possible to stratify these storms into three clusters. While the PJ pattern and EASJ are major drivers of AR activity for two clusters, the cluster that primarily affects the US Southwest is largely driven by other climate modes [El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), the Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)]. Therefore, important regional differences exist and this information can substantially enhance our ability to predict and prepare for these storms and their impacts.

Augmented reality in gynecologic surgery: evaluation of potential benefits for myomectomy in an experimental uterine model.

PubMed

Bourdel, Nicolas; Collins, Toby; Pizarro, Daniel; Bartoli, Adrien; Da Ines, David; Perreira, Bruno; Canis, Michel

2017-01-01

Augmented Reality (AR) is a technology that can allow a surgeon to see subsurface structures. This works by overlaying information from another modality, such as MRI and fusing it in real time with the endoscopic images. AR has never been developed for a very mobile organ like the uterus and has never been performed for gynecology. Myomas are not always easy to localize in laparoscopic surgery when they do not significantly change the surface of the uterus, or are at multiple locations. To study the accuracy of myoma localization using a new AR system compared to MRI-only localization. Ten residents were asked to localize six myomas (on a uterine model into a laparoscopic box) when either using AR or in conditions that simulate a standard method (only the MRI was available). Myomas were randomly divided in two groups: the control group (MRI only, AR not activated) and the AR group (AR activated). Software was used to automatically measure the distance between the point of contact on the uterine surface and the myoma. We compared these distances to the true shortest distance to obtain accuracy measures. The time taken to perform the task was measured, and an assessment of the complexity was performed. The mean accuracy in the control group was 16.80 mm [0.1-52.2] versus 0.64 mm [0.01-4.71] with AR. In the control group, the mean time to perform the task was 18.68 [6.4-47.1] s compared to 19.6 [3.9-77.5] s with AR. The mean score of difficulty (evaluated for each myoma) was 2.36 [1-4] versus 0.87 [0-4], respectively, for the control and the AR group. We developed an AR system for a very mobile organ. This is the first user study to quantitatively evaluate an AR system for improving a surgical task. In our model, AR improves localization accuracy.

Impacts of past and future climate change on wind energy resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaa, J. R.; Wood, A.; Eichelberger, S.; Westrick, K.

2009-12-01

The links between climate change and trends in wind energy resources have important potential implications for the wind energy industry, and have received significant attention in recent studies. We have conducted two studies that provide insights into the potential for climate change to affect future wind power production. In one experiment, we projected changes in power capacity for a hypothetical wind farm located near Kennewick, Washington, due to greenhouse gas-induced climate change, estimated using a set of regional climate model simulations. Our results show that the annual wind farm power capacity is projected to decrease 1.3% by 2050. In a wider study focusing on wind speed instead of power, we analyzed projected changes in wind speed from 14 different climate simulations that were performed in support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). Our results show that the predicted ensemble mean changes in annual mean wind speeds are expected to be modest. However, seasonal changes and changes predicted by individual models are large enough to affect the profitability of existing and future wind projects. The majority of the model simulations reveal that near-surface wind speed values are expected to shift poleward in response to the IPCC A2 emission scenario, particularly during the winter season. In the United States, most models agree that the mean annual wind speed values will increase in a region extending from the Great Lakes southward across the Midwest and into Texas. Decreased values, though, are predicted across most of the western United States. However, these predicted changes have a strong seasonal dependence, with wind speed increases over most of the United States during the winter and decreases over the northern United States during the summer.

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; ...

2016-08-01

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Problems with the North American Monsoon in CMIP/IPCC GCM Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiffer, N. J.; Nesbitt, S. W.

2011-12-01

Successful water management in the Desert Southwest and surrounding areas hinges on anticipating the timing and distribution of precipitation. IPCC AR4 models predict a more arid climate, more extreme precipitation events, and an earlier peak in springtime streamflow in the North American Monsoon region as the area warms. This study aims to assess the summertime skill with which general circulation models (GCMs) simulate precipitation and related dynamics over this region, a necessary precursor to reliable hydroclimate projections. Thirty-year climatologies of several GCMs in the third and fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) are statistically evaluated against each other and observed climatology for their skill in representing the location, timing, variability, character, and large-scale forcing of precipitation over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The results of this study will lend greater credence to more detailed, higher resolution studies, based on the CMIP and IPCC models, of the region's future hydrology. Our ultimate goal is to provide guidance such that decision-makers can plan future water management with more confidence.

The Direct Inhibitory Effect of Dutasteride or Finasteride on Androgen Receptor Activity is Cell Line Specific

PubMed Central

Chhipa, Rishi Raj; Halim, Danny; Cheng, Jinrong; Zhang, Huan Yi; Mohler, James L.; Ip, Clement; Wu, Yue

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Finasteride and dutasteride were developed originally as 5α-reductase inhibitors to block the conversion of testosterone to dihydrotestosterone (DHT). These drugs may possess off-target effects on the androgen receptor (AR) due to their structural similarity to DHT. METHODS A total of 4 human prostate cancer cell models were examined: LNCaP (T877A mutant AR), 22Rv1 (H874Y mutant AR), LAPC4 (wild type AR) and VCaP (wild type AR). Cells were cultured in 10% charcoal-stripped fetal bovine serum, either with or without DHT added to the medium. AR activity was evaluated using the ARE-luciferase assay or the expression of AR regulated genes. RESULTS Dutasteride was more potent than finasteride in interfering with DHT-stimulated AR signaling. Disruption of AR function was accompanied by decreased cell growth. Cells that rely on DHT for protection against death were particularly vulnerable to dutasteride. Different prostate cancer cell models exhibited different sensitivities to dutasteride and finasteride. LNCaP was most sensitive, LAPC4 and VCaP were intermediate, while 22Rv1 was least sensitive. Regardless of the AR genotype, if AR was transfected into drug-sensitive cells, AR was inhibited by drug treatment; and if AR was transfected into drug-resistant cells, AR was not inhibited. CONCLUSIONS The direct inhibitory effect of dutasteride or finasteride on AR signaling is cell line specific. Mutations in the ligand binding domain of AR do not appear to play a significant role in influencing the AR antagonistic effect of these drugs. Subcellular constituent is an important factor in determining the drug effect on AR function. PMID:23813737

Hydrodynamic evaluation of long term impacts of climate change and coastal effluents in the Arabian Gulf.

PubMed

Elhakeem, Abubaker; Elshorbagy, Walid

2015-12-30

A comprehensive basin wide hydrodynamic evaluation has been carried out to assess the long term impacts of climate change and coastal effluents on the salinity and seawater temperature of the Arabian Gulf (AG) using Delft3D-Flow model. The long term impacts of climate change scenarios A2 and B1 of the IPCC-AR4 on the AG hydrodynamics were evaluated. Using the current capacity and production rates of coastal desalination, power, and refinery plants, two projection scenarios until the year 2080 with 30 year intervals were developed namely the realistic and the optimistic discharge scenarios. Simulations of the individual climate change scenarios ascertained overall increase of the AG salinity and temperature and decrease of precipitation. The changes varied spatially with different scenarios as per the depth, proximity to exchange with ocean water, flushing, vertical mixing, and flow restriction. The individual tested scenarios of coastal projected discharges showed significant effects but within 10-20 km from the outfalls. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linear diffusion model dating of cinder cones in Central Anatolia, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Sadnick, L. G.; Reid, M. R.; Cline, M. L.; Cosca, M. A.; Kuscu, G.

2013-12-01

The progressive decrease in slope angle, cone height and cone height/width ratio over time provides the basis for geomorphic dating of cinder cones using linear diffusion models. Previous research using diffusion models to date cinder cones has focused on the cone height/width ratio as the basis for dating cones of unknown age [1,2]. Here we apply linear diffusion models to dating cinder cones. A suite of 16 cinder cones from the Hasandağ volcano area of the Neogene-Quaternary Central Anatolian Volcanic Zone, for which samples are available, were selected for morphologic dating analysis. New 40Ar/39Ar dates for five of these cones range from 62 × 4 to 517 × 9 ka. Linear diffusion models were used to model the erosional degradation of each cone. Diffusion coefficients (κ) for the 5 cinder cones with known ages were constrained by comparing various modeled slope profiles to the current slope profile. The resulting κ is 7.5×0.5 m2kyr-1. Using this κ value, eruption ages were modeled for the remaining 11 cinder cones and range from 53×3 to 455×30 ka. These ages are within the range of ages previously reported for cinder cones in the Hasandağ region. The linear diffusion model-derived ages are being compared to additional new 40Ar/39Ar dates in order to further assess the applicability of morphological dating to constrain the ages of cinder cones. The relatively well-constrained κ value we obtained by applying the linear diffusion model to cinder cones that range in age by nearly 500 ka suggests that this model can be used to date cinder cones. This κ value is higher than the well-established value of κ =3.9 for a cinder cone in a similar climate [3]. Therefore our work confirms the importance of determining appropriate κ values from nearby cones with known ages. References 1. C.A. Wood, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 8, 137 (1980) 2. D.M. Wood, M.F. Sheridan, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 83, 241 (1998) 3. J.D. Pelletier, M.L. Cline, Geology 35, 1067 (2007)

Climate change and Mediterranean storm tracks: present and future climate simulations of a high-resolution Mediterranean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Simmonds, I.; Keay, K.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Brikolas, V.; Kouroutzoglou, J.

2010-09-01

A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. General features include a reduction in the number of cyclones but with an increase in the number of more intense cyclones; as well as a poleward shift in the tracks. Moreover, these features are expected to be projected in the future under global warming conditions. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes temporal and spatial variations of frequency, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA high resolution model is employed, based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the EH5OM_20C3M present climate simulation, where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4, and b) the EH5OM_A1B scenario simulation, where the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5-MPIOM SRESA1B global simulation (run3) has been used for the period 2001-2050. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with the results of previous studies. However, new findings reveal with respect to the dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the cyclonic tracks. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

High-Precision 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Deccan Traps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprain, C. J.; Renne, P. R.; Fendley, I.; Pande, K.; Self, S.; Vanderkluysen, L.; Richards, M. A.

2017-12-01

Almost forty years ago it was first hypothesized that greenhouse gases emitted from the Deccan Traps (DT) played a role in the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (KPB) mass extinction (McLean 1979, 1980, 1985). At that time, this hypothesis was dismissed due to insufficient geochronology and new evidence that a bolide impact coincided with the KPB. Since then, evidence such as records of protracted extinction and climate change in the Late Cretaceous, in addition to new high-precision geochronology of the DT, has bolstered the Deccan hypothesis. Recently, many models have been produced to simulate how DT volcanism may have perturbed global ecosystems. However, modeled outcomes are largely dependent upon variables such as the amount and species of gas released and the tempo of eruptions, which are not well constrained (Self et al., 2014). To better constrain climatic models and better understand the role DT volcanism played in the KPB extinction, we developed a high-precision geochronologic framework defining the timing and tempo of DT eruptions within the Western Ghats using high-precision 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. Our new results show that the DT erupted relatively continuously starting 66.4 Ma and extending to at least 65.3 Ma with no hiatuses longer than 50 ka, invalidating the concept of three discrete eruption pulses in the Western Ghats (Chenet et al., 2007, 2009; Keller et al., 2008). Our new data further provide the first precise location of the KPB within the DT sequence and place this boundary at or near the Lonavala-Wai subgroup transition, roughly coincident with major changes in eruption frequency, flow-field volumes, and extent of crustal magma contamination. Taken together, these results suggest that a state shift occurred in the DT magmatic system around the time of the Chicxulub impact, consistent with the impact triggering hypothesis of Richards et al. (2015). Our work further shows that over 80% of the estimated volume of the DT within the Western Ghats erupted in 600 ka; however, 70% of this volume, erupted after the KPB calling for a reassessment of the role of DT volcanism played in the KPB mass extinction and subsequent recovery. It is important to note that current volume estimates are likely to change as we work to improve understanding of the distribution of chemical formations, both on and offshore.

Inhibition of beta-adrenergic receptor trafficking in adult cardiocytes by MAP4 decoration of microtubules.

PubMed

Cheng, Guangmao; Qiao, Fei; Gallien, Thomas N; Kuppuswamy, Dhandapani; Cooper, George

2005-03-01

Decreased beta-adrenergic receptor (beta-AR) number occurs both in animal models of cardiac hypertrophy and failure and in patients. beta-AR recycling is an important mechanism for the beta-AR resensitization that maintains a normal complement of cell surface beta-ARs. We have shown that 1) in severe pressure overload cardiac hypertrophy, there is extensive microtubule-associated protein 4 (MAP4) decoration of a dense microtubule network; and 2) MAP4 microtubule decoration inhibits muscarinic acetylcholine receptor recycling in neuroblastoma cells. We asked here whether MAP4 microtubule decoration inhibits beta-AR recycling in adult cardiocytes. [(3)H]CGP-12177 was used as a beta-AR ligand, and feline cardiocytes were isolated and infected with adenovirus containing MAP4 (AdMAP4) or beta-galactosidase (Adbeta-gal) cDNA. MAP4 decorated the microtubules extensively only in AdMAP4 cardiocytes. beta-AR agonist exposure reduced cell surface beta-AR number comparably in AdMAP4 and Adbeta-gal cardiocytes; however, after agonist withdrawal, the cell surface beta-AR number recovered to 78.4 +/- 2.9% of the pretreatment value in Adbeta-gal cardiocytes but only to 56.8 +/- 1.4% in AdMAP4 cardiocytes (P < 0.01). This result was confirmed in cardiocytes isolated from transgenic mice having cardiac-restricted MAP4 overexpression. In functional terms of cAMP generation, beta-AR agonist responsiveness of AdMAP4 cells was 47% less than that of Adbeta-gal cells. We conclude that MAP4 microtubule decoration interferes with beta-AR recycling and that this may be one mechanism for beta-AR downregulation in heart failure.

MSL/SAM Measurements of Non Condensable Volatiles, Comparison with Viking Lander, and Implications for Seasonal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atreya, Sushil; Squyres, Steve; Mahaffy, Paul; Leshin, Laurie; Franz, Heather; Trainer, Melissa; Wong, Michael; McKay, Christopher; Navarro-Gonzalez, Rafael; ScienceTeam, MarsScienceLab

2013-04-01

The first measurements of the composition of the Martian atmosphere above Gale Crater by the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument on Curiosity Rover revealed that although the volume mixing ratios (vmr) of the gases are generally similar to those measured by the Viking Lander 2 (VL2) thirty five years ago [2], they are notably different for N2 and 40Ar [1]. SAM finds a vmr of 1.9% each for N2 and Ar, so that N2 is 30% lower while Ar is 21% greater than the corresponding VL2 values, resulting in a 40% lower N2/Ar ratio compared to the VL2 result. The Ar/N ratio is used to assess the degree of mixing between the Martian atmosphere and the internal gas component of Mars meteorites due to the shock of impact ejection [e.g. 3]. The above differences in N2 and 40Ar seem to result either from different instrument characteristics or time variable atmospheric phenomena or both. The VL2 data were taken during northern summer (48°N, Ls=135°), whereas the SAM measurements correspond to the beginning of spring season (4.5°S, Ls=182-190°). Previous observations by Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer over three years have shown that the Ar mixing ratio increased by a factor of 6 over the south polar region in the winter [4]. However, the data are controversial for the equatorial region, ranging from no seasonal change [4] to as much as a 35% change [5]. No significant change was seen between the equator (SAM) and the midlatitude northern summer (VL2), however [4]. Thus the difference between the SAM and VL2 Ar does not appear to be related to different seasons. On the other hand, the vmr's of non-condensable volatiles (NCV), N2, Ar and CO, at any latitude are expected to vary seasonally due to the annual, global CO2 cycle. Diurnal changes are not expected, considering the long lifetimes of NCV's that exceed the martian year [6]. In addition to Ar, seasonal changes have been recorded in CO from ground-based [7] and MRO/CRISM observations [8], but show a much smaller increase of a factor of 2-3 over south polar region in the winter. No data exist on the seasonal behavior of N2. For the first time, SAM will monitor the seasonal behavior of N2 over the two-year prime mission of Curiosity, together with other NCV's, Ar and CO, which will reveal whether they track one another, as expected, and whether the present SAM ratio of N2/Ar =1 holds up over the seasons at roughly one-half the value obtained by Viking. These data will in turn provide crucial constraints to climate evolution and general circulation models of Mars. (www.umich.edu/~atreya). References: [1] Mahaffy P.R. et al., EGU 2013. [2] Owen T. et al., JGR 82, 4635-4639, 1977. [3] Aoudjehane, H.C. et al., Science 338, 785-788, 2012. [4] Sprague A.L. et al., JGR 117, E04005, 2012. [5] Economou T.E. and Pierrehumbert R.T., Abstract 2179.pdf, LPI Conference, 2010. [6] Wong A.S., Atreya S.K., Encrenaz T., JGR.108 (E4), 5026, doi:10.1029/2002JE002003. [7] Encrenaz T. et al., A&A 459, 265-270, 2006. [8] Smith M.D. et al., JGR.114, E00D03, doi:10.1029/2008JE003288, 2009.

Methane emissions associated with the conversion of marshland to cropland and climate change on the Sanjiang Plain of northeast China from 1950 to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Huang, Y.; Zhang, W.; Yu, Y.-Q.

2012-12-01

Wetland loss and climate change are known to alter regional and global methane (CH4) budgets. Over the last six decades, an extensive area of marshland has been converted to cropland on the Sanjiang Plain in northeast China, and a significant increase in air temperature has also been observed there, while the impacts on regional CH4 budgets remain uncertain. Through model simulation, we estimated the changes in CH4 emissions associated with the conversion of marshland to cropland and climate change in this area. Model simulations indicated a significant reduction of 1.1 Tg yr-1 (0.7-1.8 Tg yr-1) from the 1950s to the 2000s in regional CH4 emissions. The cumulative reduction of CH4 from 1960 to 2009 was estimated to be ~36 Tg (24-57 Tg) relative to the 1950s, and marshland conversion and the climate contributed 86% and 14% of this change, respectively. Interannual variation in precipitation (linear trend with P > 0.2) contributed to yearly fluctuations in CH4 emissions, but the relatively lower amount of precipitation over the period 1960-2009 (47 mm yr-1 lower on average than in the 1950s) contributed ~91% of the reduction in the area-weighted CH4 flux. Global warming at a rate of 0.3 ° per decade (P < 0.001) has increased CH4 emissions significantly since the 1990s. Relative to the mean of the 1950s, the warming-induced increase in the CH4 flux has averaged 19 kg ha-1 yr-1 over the last two decades. In the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the fifth IPCC assessment report (AR5), the CH4 fluxes are predicted to increase by 36%, 52%, 78% and 95%, respectively, by the 2080s compared to 1961-1990 in response to climate warming and wetting.

Climate Model Ensemble Methodology: Rationale and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vezer, M. A.; Myrvold, W.

2012-12-01

A tractable model of the Earth's atmosphere, or, indeed, any large, complex system, is inevitably unrealistic in a variety of ways. This will have an effect on the model's output. Nonetheless, we want to be able to rely on certain features of the model's output in studies aiming to detect, attribute, and project climate change. For this, we need assurance that these features reflect the target system, and are not artifacts of the unrealistic assumptions that go into the model. One technique for overcoming these limitations is to study ensembles of models which employ different simplifying assumptions and different methods of modelling. One then either takes as reliable certain outputs on which models in the ensemble agree, or takes the average of these outputs as the best estimate. Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) modellers have aimed to improve ensemble analysis by developing techniques to account for dependencies among models, and to ascribe unequal weights to models according to their performance. The goal of this paper is to present as clearly and cogently as possible the rationale for climate model ensemble methodology, the motivation of modellers to account for model dependencies, and their efforts to ascribe unequal weights to models. The method of our analysis is as follows. We will consider a simpler, well-understood case of taking the mean of a number of measurements of some quantity. Contrary to what is sometimes said, it is not a requirement of this practice that the errors of the component measurements be independent; one must, however, compensate for any lack of independence. We will also extend the usual accounts to include cases of unknown systematic error. We draw parallels between this simpler illustration and the more complex example of climate model ensembles, detailing how ensembles can provide more useful information than any of their constituent models. This account emphasizes the epistemic importance of considering degrees of model dependence, and the practice of ascribing unequal weights to models of unequal skill.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Town Hall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Kyle, Page; Basso, Bruno; Winter, Jonathan; Asseng, Senthold

2015-01-01

AgMIP (www.agmip.org) is an international community of climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts working to further the development and application of multi-model, multi-scale, multi-disciplinary agricultural models that can inform policy and decision makers around the world. This meeting will engage the AGU community by providing a brief overview of AgMIP, in particular its new plans for a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security for AR6. This Town Hall will help identify opportunities for participants to become involved in AgMIP and its 30+ activities.

Science and Systems in Support of Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2015-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.

Effects of wintertime atmospheric river landfalls on surface air temperatures in the Western US: Analyses and model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R.

2016-12-01

Landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) affect the wintertime surface air temperatures as shown in earlier studies. The AR-related surface air temperatures can exert significant influence on the hydrology in the US Pacific coast region especially through rainfall-snowfall partitioning and the snowpack in high elevation watersheds as they are directly related with the freezing-level altitudes. These effects of temperature perturbations can in turn affect hydrologic events of various time scales such as flash flooding by the combined effects of rainfall and snowmelt, and the warm season runoff from melting snowpack, especially in conjunction with the AR effects on winter precipitation and rain-on-snow events in WUS. Thus, understanding the effects of AR landfalls on the surface temperatures and examining the capability of climate models in simulating these effects are an important practical concern for WUS. This study aims to understand the effects of AR landfalls on the characteristics of surface air temperatures in WUS, especially seasonal means and PDFs and to evaluate the fidelity of model data produced in the NASA downscaling experiment for the 10 winters from Nov. 1999 to Mar. 2010 using an AR-landfall chronology based on the vertically-integrated water vapor flux calculated from the MERRA2 reanalysis. Model skill is measured using metrics including regional means, a skill score based on correlations and mean-square errors, the similarity between two PDF shapes, and Taylor diagrams. Results show that the AR landfalls are related with higher surface air temperatures in WUS, especially in inland regions. The AR landfalls also reduce the range of surface air temperature PDF, largely by reducing the events in the lower temperature range. The shift in the surface air temperature PDF is consistent with the positive anomalies in the winter-mean temperature. Model data from the NASA downscaling experiment reproduce the AR effects on the temperature PDF, at least qualitatively; however, the skill in representing the spatial variations in the temperature anomalies is low. The skill of these model data also varies according to regions and the configuration of simulations. It was also found that the variations in model skill in simulating the spatial variability according to the model resolution is not systematic.

Climate Change and Adaptation Planning on the Los Angeles Aqueduct

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, S. B.; Bales, R. C.; Costa-Cabral, M. C.; Chen, L.; Maurer, E. P.; Miller, N. L.; Mills, W. B.

2009-12-01

This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the Eastern Sierra Nevada snowpack and snowmelt timing, using a combination of empirical (i.e., data-based) models, and computer simulation models forced by GCM-projected 21st century climatology (IPCC 2007 AR4 projections). Precipitation from the Eastern Sierra Nevada is one of the main water sources for Los Angeles' more than 4 million people - a source whose future availability is critical to the city's growing population and large economy. Precipitation in the region falls mostly in winter and is stored in the large natural reservoir that is the snowpack. Meltwater from the Eastern Sierra is delivered to the city by the 340-mile long Los Angeles Aqueducts. The analysis is focused on the nature of the impact to the LAA water supplies over the 21st century due to potential climate change, including volume of precipitation, the mix of snowfall and rainfall, shifts in the timing of runoff, interannual variability and multi-year droughts. These impacts further affect the adequacy of seasonal and annual carryover water storage, and potentially water treatment. Most of the snow in the 10,000 km^2 Mono-Owens basins that feed the LAA occurs in a relatively narrow, 10-20 km wide, high-elevation band on the steep slopes of 20 smaller basins whose streams drain into the Owens River and thence LAA. Extending over 240 km in the north-south direction, these basins present special challenges for estimating snowpack amounts and downscaling climate-model data. In addition, there are few meteorological stations and snow measurements in the snow-producing parts of the basins to drive physically based hydrologic modeling.

Future drying of the southern Amazon and central Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; Zeng, N.; Cook, B.

2008-12-01

Recent climate modeling suggests that the Amazon rainforest could exhibit considerable dieback under future climate change, a prediction that has raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge, is in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. First, a decline in precipitation of 24% in the southern Amazon lengthens the dry season and reduces soil moisture, despite of an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to the nonlinear response in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season precipitation: (1) a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient; (2) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure. Secondly, evaporation will increase due to the general warming, thus also reducing soil moisture. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of vegetation by 20%, and enhanced fire carbon flux by 10-15% in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Because the southern Amazon is also under intense human influence, the double pressure of deforestation and climate change may subject the region to dramatic changes in the 21st century.

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Future Evolution of Marine Heat Waves in the Mediterranean: Coupled Regional Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmaraki, Sofia; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Nabat, Pierre; Cavicchia, Leone; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

FUTURE EVOLUTION OF MARINE HEAT WAVES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN : COUPLED REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS The Mediterranean area is identified as a « Hot Spot » region, vulnerable to future climate change with potentially strong impacts over the sea. By 2100, climate models predict increased warming over the sea surface, with possible implications on the Mediterranean thermohaline and surface circulation,associated also with severe impacts on the ecosystems (e.g. fish habitat loss, species extinction and migration, invasive species). However, a robust assesment of the future evolution of the extreme marine temperatures remains still an open issue of primary importance, under the anthropogenic pressure. In this context, we study here the probability and characteristics of marine heat wave (MHW) occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea in future climate projections. To this end, we use an ensemble of fully coupled regional climate system models (RCSM) from the Med- CORDEX initiative. This multi-model approach includes a high-resolution representation of the atmospheric, land and ocean component, with a free air-sea interface.Specifically, dedicated simulations for the 20th and the 21st century are carried out with respect to the different IPCC-AR5 socioeconomic scenarios (1950-2100, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Model evaluation for the historical period is performed using satellite and in situ data. Then, the variety of factors that can cause the MHW (e.g. direct radiative forcing, ocean advection, stratification change) are examined to disentangle the dominant driving force. Finally, the spatial variability and temporal evolution of MHW are analyzed on an annual basis, along with additional integrated indicators, useful for marine ecosystems.

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest river to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, F.; Cuo, L.; Wu, H.; Mantua, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2009-12-01

The climate of the Pacific Northwest (PNW - which we define as the Columbia River basin and watersheds draining to the Oregon and Washington coasts) is expected to warm by approximately 0.3°C per decade in the next 100 years based on the IPCC the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) results. PNW hydrology is particularly sensitive to a warming climate because of the dominant role of snowmelt in seasonal streamflow. Timing shifts in seasonality of flows, peak discharge, and base flows will impact water resource management, regional electrical energy production, and freshwater ecosystems. In this work we update previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology using a macroscale hydrology model driven by simulations of temperature and precipitation downscaled from runs of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A1B) in the 21st century. The hydrology model is implemented at 1/16th degree spatial resolution over the entire PNW. A (statistical) bias-correction and spatial disaggregation downscaling approach is used for translating the transient monthly climate model output into continuous daily forcings for the hydrologic analysis. We evaluate projected changes in snow water equivalent, seasonal streamflow, and frequency of peak low flows over a set of case study watersheds in the region. We also compare these hydrologic projections with previous analysis based on delta downscaling method over the PNW. This research is part of a project investigating climate change impacts on the future of wild Pacific salmon, and is a pilot effort to investigate the hydrologic sensitivity of salmon bearing watersheds around the entire North Pacific Rim.

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2009-10-01

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to themore » economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.« less

Elucidation of arctigenin pharmacokinetics after intravenous and oral administrations in rats: integration of in vitro and in vivo findings via semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic modeling.

PubMed

Gao, Qiong; Zhang, Yufeng; Wo, Siukwan; Zuo, Zhong

2014-11-01

Although arctigenin (AR) has attracted substantial research interests due to its promising and diverse therapeutic effects, studies regarding its biotransformation were limited. The current study aims to provide information regarding the pharmacokinetic properties of AR via various in vitro and in vivo experiments as well as semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic modeling. Our in vitro rat microsome incubation studies revealed that glucuronidation was the main intestinal and liver metabolic pathway of AR, which occurred with V max, K m, and Clint of 47.5 ± 3.4 nmol/min/mg, 204 ± 22 μM, and 233 ± 9 μl/min/mg with intestinal microsomes and 2.92 ± 0.07 nmol/min/mg, 22.7 ± 1.2 μM, and 129 ± 4 μl/min/mg with liver microsomes, respectively. In addition, demethylation and hydrolysis of AR occurred with liver microsomes but not with intestinal microsomes. In vitro incubation of AR and its metabolites in intestinal content demonstrated that glucuronides of AR excreted in bile could be further hydrolyzed back to the parent compound, suggesting its potential enterohepatic circulation. Furthermore, rapid formation followed by fast elimination of arctigenic acid (AA) and arctigenin-4'-O-glucuronide (AG) was observed after both intravenous (IV) and oral administrations of AR in rats. Linear pharmacokinetics was observed at three different doses for AR, AA, and AG after IV administration of AR (0.48-2.4 mg/kg, r (2) > 0.99). Finally, an integrated semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic model using in vitro enzyme kinetic and in vivo pharmacokinetic parameters was successfully developed to describe plasma concentrations of AR, AA, and AG after both IV and oral administration of AR at all tested doses.

Overview of Climate Confluence Security Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reisman, J. P.

2011-12-01

Presentation will focus on an overview of the security perspectives based on the confluence considerations including energy, economics and climate change. This will include perspectives from reports generated by the Quadrennial Defense Review, Joint Forces Command, the Center for Strategic International Studies, MIT, the Inter-agency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Center for Naval Analysis, and other relevant reports. The presentation will highlight the connections between resource issues and climate change which can be interpreted into security concerns. General discussion of global issues, contextual review of AR4 WGII may be included and any other report updates as applicable. The purpose of this presentation is to give a rounded view of the general qualitative and quantitative perspectives regarding climate related security considerations.

Evaluation of the Acceptance of Audience Response System by Corporations Using the Technology Acceptance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Hsing-Hui; Lu, Ta-Jung; Wann, Jong-Wen

The purpose of this research is to explore enterprises' acceptance of Audience Response System (ARS) using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The findings show that (1) IT characteristics and facilitating conditions could be external variables of TAM. (2) The degree of E-business has positive significant correlation with behavioral intention of employees. (3) TAM is a good model to predict and explain IT acceptance. (4) Demographic variables, industry and firm characteristics have no significant correlation with ARS acceptance. The results provide useful information to managers and ARS providers that (1) ARS providers should focus more on creating different usages to enhance interactivity and employees' using intention. (2) Managers should pay attention to build sound internal facilitating conditions for introducing IT. (3) According to the degree of E-business, managers should set up strategic stages of introducing IT. (4) Providers should increase product promotion and also leverage academic and government to promote ARS.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Future PMPs Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario: Focus on Dew Point Temperature Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okjeong, Lee; Sangdan, Kim

2016-04-01

According to future climate change scenarios, future temperature is expected to increase gradually. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the effects of these climate changes to predict Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMPs). In this presentation, PMPs will be estimated with future dew point temperature change. After selecting 174 major storm events from 1981 to 2005, new PMPs will be proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2,025, 4,900, 10,000 and 19,600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. Also, orographic transposition factor will be applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous Korean PMPs estimation reports. After estimating dew point temperature using future temperature and representative humidity information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under dew point temperature change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-01

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern".

PubMed

Smith, Joel B; Schneider, Stephen H; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H D; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-03-17

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”

PubMed Central

Smith, Joel B.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W.; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H. D.; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A. Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-01-01

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.” PMID:19251662

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-05-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasize that CO2 fertilisation and N cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of Decoupled Land-Use Change Scenarios (DLUCS): the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

The importance of hydrological uncertainty assessment methods in climate change impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honti, M.; Scheidegger, A.; Stamm, C.

2014-08-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980s with a recent boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. From hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology has emerged, to a large extent shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the coming decades. The "standard" workflow relies on a model cascade from global circulation model (GCM) predictions for selected IPCC scenarios to future catchment hydrology. Uncertainty is present at each level and propagates through the model cascade. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. Our hypothesis was that the relative importance of climatic and hydrologic uncertainty is (among other factors) heavily influenced by the uncertainty assessment method. To test this we carried out a climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on two small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment with two different likelihood functions. One was a time series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was an approximate likelihood function for the flow quantiles. The results showed that the expected climatic impact on flow quantiles was small compared to prediction uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty assessment method actually determined what sources of uncertainty could be identified at all. This demonstrated that one could arrive at rather different conclusions about the causes behind predictive uncertainty for the same hydrological model and calibration data when considering different objective functions for calibration.

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

Modeling the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.; Backus, G.; Warren, D.

2010-12-01

Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

Application of empirical and dynamical closure methods to simple climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla, Lauren Elizabeth

This dissertation applies empirically- and physically-based methods for closure of uncertain parameters and processes to three model systems that lie on the simple end of climate model complexity. Each model isolates one of three sources of closure uncertainty: uncertain observational data, large dimension, and wide ranging length scales. They serve as efficient test systems toward extension of the methods to more realistic climate models. The empirical approach uses the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) to estimate the transient climate sensitivity (TCS) parameter in a globally-averaged energy balance model. Uncertainty in climate forcing and historical temperature make TCS difficult to determine. A range of probabilistic estimates of TCS computed for various assumptions about past forcing and natural variability corroborate ranges reported in the IPCC AR4 found by different means. Also computed are estimates of how quickly uncertainty in TCS may be expected to diminish in the future as additional observations become available. For higher system dimensions the UKF approach may become prohibitively expensive. A modified UKF algorithm is developed in which the error covariance is represented by a reduced-rank approximation, substantially reducing the number of model evaluations required to provide probability densities for unknown parameters. The method estimates the state and parameters of an abstract atmospheric model, known as Lorenz 96, with accuracy close to that of a full-order UKF for 30-60% rank reduction. The physical approach to closure uses the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) to demonstrate closure of small-scale, nonlinear processes that would not be resolved directly in climate models. A one-dimensional, abstract test model with a broad spatial spectrum is developed. The test model couples the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation to a transport equation that includes cloud formation and precipitation-like processes. In the test model, three main sources of MMF error are evaluated independently. Loss of nonlinear multi-scale interactions and periodic boundary conditions in closure models were dominant sources of error. Using a reduced order modeling approach to maximize energy content allowed reduction of the closure model dimension up to 75% without loss in accuracy. MMF and a comparable alternative model peformed equally well compared to direct numerical simulation.

Knowledge discovery and nonlinear modeling can complement climate model simulations for predictive insights about climate extremes and their impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, A. R.; Steinbach, M.; Kumar, V.

2009-12-01

The IPCC AR4 not only provided conclusive evidence about anticipated global warming at century scales, but also indicated with a high level of certainty that the warming is caused by anthropogenic emissions. However, an outstanding knowledge-gap is to develop credible projections of climate extremes and their impacts. Climate extremes are defined in this context as extreme weather and hydrological events, as well as changes in regional hydro-meteorological patterns, especially at decadal scales. While temperature extremes from climate models have relatively better skills, hydrological variables and their extremes have significant shortcomings. Credible projections about tropical storms, sea level rise, coastal storm surge, land glacier melts, and landslides remain elusive. The next generation of climate models is expected to have higher precision. However, their ability to provide more accurate projections of climate extremes remains to be tested. Projections of observed trends into the future may not be reliable in non-stationary environments like climate change, even though functional relationships derived from physics may hold. On the other hand, assessments of climate change impacts which are useful for stakeholders and policy makers depend critically on regional and decadal scale projections of climate extremes. Thus, climate impacts scientists often need to develop qualitative inferences about the not so-well predicted climate extremes based on insights from observations (e.g., increased hurricane intensity) or conceptual understanding (e.g., relation of wildfires to regional warming or drying and hurricanes to SST). However, neither conceptual understanding nor observed trends may be reliable when extrapolating in a non-stationary environment. These urgent societal priorities offer fertile grounds for nonlinear modeling and knowledge discovery approaches. Thus, qualitative inferences on climate extremes and impacts may be transformed into quantitative predictive insights based on a combination of hypothesis-guided data analysis and relatively hypothesis-free but data-guided discovery processes. The analysis and discovery approaches need to be cognizant of climate data characteristics like nonlinear processes, low-frequency variability, long-range spatial dependence and long-memory temporal processes; the value of physically-motivated conceptual understanding and functional associations; as well as possible thresholds and tipping points in the impacted natural, engineered or human systems. Case studies focusing on new methodologies as well as novel climate insights are discussed with a focus on stakeholder requirements.

A geochronological 40Ar/39Ar and 87Rb/81Sr study of K-Mn oxides from the weathering sequence of Azul, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffet, G.; Innocent, C.; Michard, A.; Féraud, G.; Beauvais, A.; Nahon, D.; Hamelin, B.

1996-06-01

KMn oxides of hollandite group minerals such as cryptomelane (K 1-2(Mn 3+, Mn 4+) 8O 16nH 2O) are often precipitated authigenically in weathering profiles. The presence of structural K allows these minerals to be dated by the KAr and 40Ar/ 39Ar methods, making it possible to study the progression of oxidation fronts during weathering processes. Within the context of a recent 40Ar/ 39Ar study of cryptomelane from the Azul Mn deposit in the Carajàs region (Amazônia, Brazil), Vasconcelos et al. (1994) defined three age clusters (65-69, 51-56, and 40-43 Ma) and proposed that they correspond to the episodic precipitation of the three generations of Mn oxide that have been identified in the deposit (Beauvais et al., 1987). We performed a laser probe 40Ar/ 39Ar and 87Rb/ 87Sr study on new samples from the same Mn deposit. Our 40Ar/ 39Ar data confirm that cryptomelane is a suitable mineral for 40Ar/ 39Ar dating, although in some cases we clearly identify the existence of 39Ar recoil effects. Although the corresponding age spectra are generally strongly disturbed, our results also confirm that the earliest cryptomelane generation is of Upper Cretaceous-Paleocene age. We obtained good plateau ages from veins and concretions of the second cryptomelane generation. Some of these results allow definition of a well-constrained age cluster at 46.7-48.1 Ma not observed by Vasconcelos et al. (1994). A petrographic study confirms that none of the samples analyzed in the present study contained material associated with the third generation of cryptomelane. We propose that these new results support the idea of a more or less continuous crystallization of KMn oxides, mainly constrained by local factors, rather than the model advanced by Vasconcelos et al. (1994), which suggests that each cryptomelane generation corresponds to distinct weathering events related to global climatic changes. 87Sr/ 86Sr data show large variations, clearly inherited from the 2.1 Ga parent rock of the Mn protore. The Rb/Sr results demonstrate that minimum fractionation occurs during cryptomelane crystallization, except for the latest generation, which is depleted in Sr. This precludes use of the Rb/Sr radiochronometer for dating secondary Mn oxides in laterites.

An overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dulac, François

2014-05-01

The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx, http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr) is a French initiative of the MISTRALS meta-programme (Mediterranean Integrated Studies at Regional And Locals Scales, http://www.mistrals-home.org). It federates a great number of national and international cooperative research actions aiming at a scientific assessment of the present and future state of the atmospheric environment in the Mediterranean Basin, and of its impacts on the regional climate, air quality, and marine biogeochemistry. The target is short-lived particulate and gaseous tropospheric trace species which are the cause of poor air quality events, have two-way interactions with climate, or impact the marine biogeochemistry, in a context of strong regional anthropogenic and climatic pressures. The six ChArMEx work packages include Emissions, Chemical processes and ageing, Transport processes and air quality, Aerosol-radiation-climate interactions, Deposition, and Present and future variability and trends. For several years, efforts have been deployed in several countries to develop (i) a network of relevant stations for atmospheric chemistry at background sites on islands and continental coasts around the basin and (ii) several intensive field campaigns including the operation of surface supersites and various instrumented mobile platforms (large and ultra-light aircraft, sounding and drifting balloons, ZeroCO2 sailboat). This presentation is an attempt to provide an overview of the various experimental, remote sensing and modelling efforts produced and to highlight major findings, by referencing more detailed ChArMEx presentations given in this conference and recently published or submitted papers. During the first phase of the project experimental efforts have been mainly concentrated on the western basin. Plans for the 2nd phase of ChArMEx, more dedicated towards the eastern basin, will also be given. In particular we plan to develop monitoring activities at Cyprus and put more emphasis (i) on aerosol-cloud interactions in cooperation with the FP7/Environment project BACCHUS, (ii) the budget and transport of anthropogenic emissions from megacities, and (iii) processes at the air-sea interface with a proposal for a 1-month oceanographic cruise during a period of dust deposition events, joint with the biogeochemistry component of MISTRALS (project MERMEX: the Marine Ecosystem Response Mediterranean Experiment). Acknowledgements: ChArMEx activities involve about 50 institutes. FD expresses his gratitude to every contributing scientist. ChArMEx is supported by too many agencies for listing them all here. The main overall effort is from France, with ADEME, ANR, CNES, CNRS-INSU, the Collectivité Territoriale de Corse (incl. EU-FEDER funds), Météo-France, CEA and Ecole des Mines de Douai as the main funding agencies.

Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII.

PubMed

Ford, James D; Vanderbilt, Will; Berrang-Ford, Lea

This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change ('Indigenous content') to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting how authorship affect structure and content of assessment reports, we argue that, unaddressed, this will affect the extent to which Indigenous content is examined and assessed. While it is too late to alter the structure of AR5, there are opportunities to prioritize the recruitment of contributing authors and reviewers with expertise on Indigenous issues, raise awareness among CAs on the characteristics of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability faced by Indigenous peoples, and highlight how Indigenous perspectives can help broaden our understanding of climate change and policy interventions.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.

2012-12-01

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change "commitment" of a range of radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible if atmospheric CO2 is left to evolve freely or is artificially restored to pre-industrial levels. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate significant surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.0-0.6 °C for RCP4.5 and 0.0-1.2 °C for RCP8.5, and the additional sea level rise is 0.1-1.0 m for RCP4.5 and 0.4-2.6 m for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions results in constant or slightly decreasing surface air temperature in all EMICs. Thermosteric sea level rise continues after elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with additional sea level rise between 2300 and 3000 of 0.0-0.5 m for RCP4.5 and 0.2-2.4 m for RCP8.5. The largest warming and sea level rise commitment are simulated for the case with constant year-2300 CO2 emissions. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100-1000 years does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level rise exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2, and requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Results of the climate change commitment and reversibility simulations differ widely among EMICs, both in the physical and biogeochemical response. Particularly large differences are identified in the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to atmospheric CO2 and climate, highlighting the need for improved understanding and representation of land carbon cycle processes in Earth System models.

Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

2016-04-01

In order to design adaptive strategies to global change we need to assess the future impact of climate change on water resources, which depends on precipitation and temperature series in the systems. The objective of this work is to generate future climate series in the "Alto Genil" Basin (southeast Spain) for the period 2071-2100 by perturbing the historical series using different statistical methods. For this targeted we use information coming from regionals climate model simulations (RCMs) available in two European projects, CORDEX (2013), with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, and ENSEMBLES (2009), with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The historical climate series used for the period 1971-2000 have been obtained from Spain02 project (2012) which has the same spatial resolution that CORDEX project (both use the EURO-CORDEX grid). Two emission scenarios have been considered: the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the A1B emission scenario of fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We use the RCM simulations to create an ensemble of predictions weighting their information according to their ability to reproduce the main statistic of the historical climatology. A multi-objective analysis has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to the cited statistic of the historical series. The ensemble of the CORDEX and the ENSEMBLES projects has been finally created with nine and four models respectively. These ensemble series have been used to assess the anomalies in mean and standard deviation (differences between the control and future RCM series). A "delta-change" method (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2011) has been applied to define future series by modifying the historical climate series in accordance with the cited anomalies in mean and standard deviation. A comparison between results for scenario A1B and RCP8.5 has been performed. The reduction obtained for the mean rainfall respect to the historical are 24.2 % and 24.4 % respectively, and the increment in the temperature are 46.3 % and 31.2 % respectively. A sensitivity analysis of the results to the statistical downscaling techniques employed has been performed. The next techniques have been explored: Perturbation method or "delta-change"; Regression method (a regression function which relates the RCM and the historic information will be used to generate future climate series for the fixed period); Quantile mapping, (it attempts to find a transformation function which relates the observed variable and the modeled variable maintaining an statistical distribution equals the observed variable); Stochastic weather generator (SWG): They can be uni-site or multi-site (which considers the spatial correlation of climatic series). A comparative analysis of these techniques has been performed identifying the advantages and disadvantages of each of them. Acknowledgments: This research has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02, ENSEMBLES and CORDEX projects for the data provided for this study.

Atmospheric rivers causing high accumulation storms in East Antarctica: regional climate model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzara, M. A.; Tsukernik, M.; Gorodetskaya, I.

2016-12-01

Recent studies confirmed that atmospheric rivers (ARs) reach the continent of Antarctica and thus influence the Antarctic accumulation patterns and the ice sheet mass balance (Gorodetskaya et al. 2014, GRL). Similar to mid-latitude ARs, Antarctic ARs are associated with a blocking pattern downstream of a cyclone, which allows channeling of moisture toward the continent. However, due to the extremely cold atmosphere, Antarctic ARs possess some unique features. First, the existence of an AR in high latitudes is always associated with warm advection. Second, in order for an AR to penetrate the continent, it needs to overcome strong low-level outflow winds - katabatic winds - coming from the interior of the continent. Thirdly, sea ice surrounding the Antarctic ice sheet introduces an additional "cold barrier" decreasing the tropospheric moisture holding capacity and promoting precipitation before reaching the ice sheet. We believe these factors contribute to the scarcity of AR events influencing the ice sheet surface mass balance. Nevertheless, their presence is clearly seen in the long-term record. In particular, anomalous accumulation in 2009 and 2011 in Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica has been linked to atmospheric rivers. We performed a detailed investigation of several AR storm events from 2009 and 2011 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. These simulations depicted the synoptic scale development of storms that led to an anomalous precipitation pattern in the East Antarctic. We investigated the role of the upper level vs. lower level forcing in the formation of the contributing storms. The moisture and temperature anomalies of each case are evaluated in the context of synoptic and large-scale atmospheric forcing. We also performed sensitivity studies to determine the role of sea ice in the development of these systems.

Multiscale Assessment of Listed and At-Risk Species’ Climate Change Vulnerabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-15

Anthropogenically altered landscapes (e.g., urban or agricultural areas) that may hinder the dispersal of a species. B3. Land Use Changes from Climate Change...vulnerable (HV) and ex- tremely vulnerable (EV). Federal land management agencies include: Agricultural Research Service (ARS), Bu- reau of Land...agencies include: Agricultural Research Service (ARS), Bu- reau of Land Management (BLM), Bureau of Reclamation (BOR), Department of Defense (DoD

Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

2009-12-01

Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that assessment [IPCC, 2005]. This paper extends a review of the treatment of uncertainty in the IPCC assessments by Swart et al [2009]. It is shown that progress towards consistency has been made but that there also appears to be a need for continued use of several complementary approaches in order to cover the wide range of circumstances across different disciplines involved in climate change. While this reflects the situation in the science community, it also raises the level of complexity for policymakers and other users of the assessments who would prefer one common consensus approach. References IPCC (2005), Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties, IPCC, Geneva. Manning, M., et al. (2004), IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options. IPCC Moss, R., and S. Schneider (2000), Uncertainties, in Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, edited by R. Pachauri, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva. Swart, R., et al. (2009), Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC Climatic Change, 92(1-2), 1 - 29.

Observed Trends in West Coast Atmospheric River Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, K. R.; Swain, D. L.; Barnes, E. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the changing characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in a warming climate is critical in light of their importance in generating precipitation and creating the potential for flood and geophysical hazards. Numerous changes to the characteristics of ARs under the influence of a changing climate have been documented or hypothesized; one simple hypothesis is that AR precipitation will occur at increasingly warm temperatures, potentially altering the critical rain/snow balance in snowpack-dependent watersheds and causing precipitation at higher elevations to fall as rain rather than snow. Not only would warmer, primarily rain-producing ARs greatly affect snow accumulation, but they might also increase the intensity of runoff, the potential for flooding, and the occurrence of rain-on-snow events. Since the West Coast of North America relies heavily on ARs as a source of precipitation and snowpack accumulation, these regions may be profoundly affected by changes in AR temperatures and associated impacts. Using a catalog of ARs encompassing 1979-2014 and ERA-Interim reanalysis, we assess whether detectable trends exist in cool season AR temperatures over the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. We define AR temperature by the mean temperature of the air mass between 1000 hPa and 750 hPa, and compare AR temperature trends to background temperature trends over the same period. We find overall AR warming over this period and particularly robust warming in March ARs coincident with an apparent poleward shift in March AR frequency. Further analysis suggests that warmer ARs have higher rates of warming than cooler ARs. AR temperature trends generally scale with background temperature trends, although some regions exhibit a near one-to-one relationship while others are largely uncorrelated. The observed warming of ARs making landfall on the West Coast may have potentially significant implications for rain vs. snow at higher elevations, the rain/snow balance, and rain-on-snow flood hazards (particularly in March).

Web based visualization of large climate data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, Jay R.; Hostetler, Steven W.

2015-01-01

We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hydrologic variables we simulated using a simple water-balance model. Our application summarizes very large, complex data sets at scales relevant to resource managers and citizens and makes climate-change projection information accessible to users of varying skill levels. Tens of terabytes of high-resolution climate and water-balance data are distilled to compact binary format summary files that are used in the application. To alleviate slow response times under high loads, we developed a map caching technique that reduces the time it takes to generate maps by several orders of magnitude. The reduced access time scales to >500 concurrent users. We provide code examples that demonstrate key aspects of data processing, data exporting/importing and the caching technique used in the NCCV.

Quantifying Climate Change Hydrologic Risk at NASA Ames Research Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, W. B.; Bromirski, P. D.; Coats, R. N.; Costa-Cabral, M.; Fong, J.; Loewenstein, M.; Milesi, C.; Miller, N.; Murphy, N.; Roy, S.

2013-12-01

In response to 2009 Executive Order 13514 mandating U.S. federal agencies to evaluate infrastructure vulnerabilities due to climate variability and change we provide an analysis of future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center (Ames) along South S.F. Bay. This includes likelihood analysis of large-scale water vapor transport, statistical analysis of intense precipitation, high winds, sea level rise, storm surge, estuary dynamics, saturated overland flooding, and likely impacts to wetlands and habitat loss near Ames. We use the IPCC CMIP5 data from three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models with Radiative Concentration Pathways of 8.5 Wm-2 and 4.5 Wm-2 and provide an analysis of climate variability and change associated with flooding and impacts at Ames. Intense storms impacting Ames are due to two large-scale processes, sub-tropical atmospheric rivers (AR) and north Pacific Aleutian low-pressure (AL) storm systems, both of which are analyzed here in terms of the Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) exceeding a critical threshold within a search domain and the wind vector transporting the IWV from southerly to westerly to northwesterly for ARs and northwesterly to northerly for ALs and within the Ames impact area during 1970-1999, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099. We also include a statistical model of extreme precipitation at Ames based on large-scale climatic predictors, and characterize changes using CMIP5 projections. Requirements for levee height to protect Ames are projected to increase and continually accelerate throughout this century as sea level rises. We use empirical statistical and analytical methods to determine the likelihood, in each year from present through 2099, of water level surpassing different threshold values in SF Bay near NASA Ames. We study the sensitivity of the water level corresponding to a 1-in-10 and 1-in-100 likelihood of exceedance to changes in the statistical distribution of storm surge height and ENSO height, in addition to increasing mean sea level. We examine the implications in the face of the CMIP5 projections. Storm intensification may result in increased flooding hazards at Ames. We analyze how the changes in precipitation intensity will impact the storm drainage system at Ames through continuous stormwater modeling of runoff with the EPA model SWMM 5 and projected downscaled daily precipitation data. Although extreme events will not adversely affect wetland habitats, adaptation projects--especially levee construction and improvement--will require filling of wetlands. Federal law mandates mitigation for fill placed in wetlands. We are currently calculating the potential mitigation burden by habitat type.

Contributions of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the ARM Climate Research Facility to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

SA Edgerton; LR Roeder

The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and thermal (or infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back to space. Changes in atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gases, clouds, and aerosols can alter this balance and produce significant climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool for quantifying future climate change; however, there remain significant uncertainties in the GCM treatment of clouds, aerosol, and their effects on the Earth’s energy balance. The 2007 assessment (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a substantial range among GCMs in climate sensitivity to greenhousemore » gas emissions. The largest contributor to this range lies in how different models handle changes in the way clouds absorb or reflect radiative energy in a changing climate (Solomon et al. 2007). In 1989, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science created the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program within the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a specific focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. To address this problem, BER has adopted a unique two-pronged approach: * The ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF), a scientific user facility for obtaining long-term measurements of radiative fluxes, cloud and aerosol properties, and related atmospheric characteristics in diverse climate regimes. * The ARM Science Program, focused on the analysis of ACRF data to address climate science issues associated with clouds, aerosols, and radiation, and to improve GCMs. This report describes accomplishments of the BER ARM Program toward addressing the primary uncertainties related to climate change prediction as identified by the IPCC.« less

[The effect of 18β-sodium glycyrrhetinic acid on the nasal mucosa epithelial cilia in rat models of allergic rhinitis].

PubMed

Yang, Jing; Xi, Kehu; Gui, Yan; Wang, Youhu; Zhang, Fuhong; Ma, Chunxia; Hong, Hao; Liu, Xiangyi; Meng, Nannan; Zhang, Xiaobing

2015-12-01

To investigate 18β-sodium glycyrrhetinic acid impact on nasal mucosa epithelial cilia in rat models of allergic rhinitis (AR). AR models were established by ovalbumin-induction. Wister rats were randomly divided into groups as normal group, model group, budesonide (0.2 mg/kg) group and sodium glycyrrhetinic acid (20 mg/kg and 40 mg/kg) group after the success of AR models. At 2 weeks and 4 weeks after treatment, the behavioral changes of rats were observed and recorded, and nasal septum mucosae were collected after 2 week and 4 week intervention, and the morphological changes of nasal mucosae were observed by electron microscope. Model group developed typical AR symptoms, the total score in all animals was > 5. With budesonide and sodium glycyrrhetinic acid treatment, the AR symptoms were relieved, and the total scores were reduced significantly (P < 0.01). Compared with the model group: after 2 weeks' intervention, thick mucous secretions on the top of columnar epithelium cilia in rat nasal mucosa was significantly reduced, and cilia adhesion, lodging, shedding were relieved in budesonide group and sodium glycyrrhetinic acid group, the relieve in budesonide group was slightly better than that in sodium glycyrrhetinic acid group; after 4 week intervention, Cilia adhesion, lodging, shedding were completely vanished, and the cilia were ranged in regular direction in budesonide group and sodium glycyrrhetinic acid group. Cilia in sodium glycyrrhetinic acid (20 mg/kg) group was more orderly, smooth than that in budesonide group and sodium glycyrrhetinic acid group (40 mg/kg), and the condition of cilia in sodium glycyrrhetinic acid group (20 mg/kg) was similar to the normal group. 18β-sodium glycyrrhetinic acid is effective to restrain the pathological changes of nasal mucosa cilia in rat models of AR.

β2‑adrenergic receptor functionality and genotype in two different models of chronic inflammatory disease: Liver cirrhosis and osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Roca, Reyes; Esteban, Pablo; Zapater, Pedro; Inda, María-Del-Mar; Conte, Anna Lucia; Gómez-Escolar, Laura; Martínez, Helena; Horga, José F; Palazon, José M; Peiró, Ana M

2018-06-01

The present study was designed to investigate the functional status of β2 adrenoceptors (β2AR) in two models of chronic inflammatory disease: liver cirrhosis (LC) and osteoarthritis (OA). The β2AR gene contains three single nucleotide polymorphisms at amino acid positions 16, 27 and 164. The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential influence of lymphocyte β2AR receptor functionality and genotype in LC and OA patients. Blood samples from cirrhotic patients (n=52, hepatic venous pressure gradient 13±4 mmHg, CHILD 7±2 and MELD 11±4 scores), OA patients (n=30, 84% Kellgren‑Lawrence severity 4 grade, 14% knee replacement joint) and healthy volunteers as control group (n=26) were analyzed. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were isolated from whole blood and basal and isoproterenol induced adenylate cyclase activity (isoproterenol stimulus from 10‑9 to 10‑4 mM), and β2AR allelic variants (rs1042713, rs1042714, rs1800888) were determined. β2AR functionality was decreased in the two different models of chronic inflammatory disease studied, OA (50% vs. control) and LC (85% vs. control). In these patients, the strength of the β2AR response to adrenergic stimulation was very limited. Adrenergic modulation of PBMC function through the β2AR stimulus is decreased in chronic inflammatory processes including LC and OA, suggesting that the adrenergic system may be important in the development of these processes.

Climatic Droughts and the Impacts on Crop Yields in Northern India during the Past Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Y.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Drought has become an increasingly severe threat to water and food security recently. This study presents a novel method to calculate the return period of drought, considering drought as event characterized by expected drought inter-arrival time, duration, severity and peak intensity. Recently, Copula distribution, a multivariable probability distribution, is used to deal with strongly correlated variables in analyzing complex hydrologic phenomenon. This study assesses drought conditions in Northern India, including 8 sites, in the past century using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from two latest datasets, Dai (2011, 2013) and Sheffield et al. (2012), which concluded conflicting results about global average drought trend. Our results include the change of the severity, intensity and duration of drought events during the past century and the impact of the drought condition on crop yields in the region. It is found that drought variables are highly correlated, thus copulas joint distribution enables the estimation of multi-variate return period. Based on Dai's dataset from 1900 to 2012, for a fixed drought return period the severity and duration is lower for the period before1955 in sites close to the Indus basin (site 1) or off the coast of the Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal) (site 8), while they are higher for the period after 1955 in other inland sites (sites 3-7), (e.g., severity in Fig.1). Projections based on two models (IPCC AR4 and AR5) in Dai (2011, 2013) suggested less severity and shorter duration in longer-year drought (e.g., 100-year drought), but larger in shorter-year drought (e.g., 2-year drought). Drought could bring nonlinear responses and unexpected losses in agriculture system, thus prediction and management are essential. Therefore, in the years with extreme drought conditions, impact assessment of drought on crop yield of corn, barley, wheat and sorghum will be also conducted through correlating crop yields with drought conditions during corresponding growing seasons. A. Dai, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12115 (2011).A. Dai, Nature Climate Change, 3, 52-58 (2013). J. Sheffield, E.F. Wood, M. L. Roderick, Nature, 491, 435-438 (2012) Fig. 1 Return period for severity from 1900 to 1954 (green), from 1955 to 2012 (red), and from 2013 to 2099 (black for AR4, blue for AR5), respectively for 8 sites.

Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Z.; Jia, S. F.; Lv, A. F.; Yang, K. J.; Svensson, J.; Gao, Y. C.

2015-10-01

This paper advances understanding of the impacts of climate change on crops in China by moving from ex-post analysis to forecasting, and by demonstrating how the effects of climate change will affect the growth period and the planting boundaries of winter wheat. Using a multiple regression model based on agricultural meteorological observations and the IPCC AR5 GCMs simulations, we find that the sowing date of winter wheat in the base period, 2040s and 2070s, shows a gradually delayed trend from north to south and the growth period of winter wheat in China will be shortened under climate change. The simulation results also show that (i) the north planting boundaries of winter wheat in China will likely move northward and expand westward in the future, while the south planting boundary will rise and spread in south Hainan and Taiwan; and (ii) the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will have the largest increases in planting areas in 2040s and 2070s. Our simulation implies that Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are more sensitive to climate change than other regions in China and priority should be given to design adaptation strategies for winter wheat planting for these provinces.

Why inputs matter: Selection of climatic variables for species distribution modelling in the Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobrowski, Maria; Schickhoff, Udo

2017-04-01

Betula utilis is a major constituent of alpine treeline ecotones in the western and central Himalayan region. The objective of this study is to provide first time analysis of the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the subalpine and alpine belts of the Himalayan region using species distribution modelling. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) we aim at examining climatic factors controlling the species distribution under current climate conditions. Furthermore we evaluate the prediction ability of climate data derived from different statistical methods. GLMs were created using least correlated bioclimatic variables derived from two different climate models: 1) interpolated climate data (i.e. Worldclim, Hijmans et al., 2005) and 2) quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling (i.e. Chelsa; Karger et al., 2016). Model accuracy was evaluated by the ability to predict the potential species distribution range. We found that models based on variables of Chelsa climate data had higher predictive power, whereas models using Worldclim climate data consistently overpredicted the potential suitable habitat for Betula utilis. Although climatic variables of Worldclim are widely used in modelling species distribution, our results suggest to treat them with caution when remote regions like the Himalayan mountains are in focus. Unmindful usage of climatic variables for species distribution models potentially cause misleading projections and may lead to wrong implications and recommendations for nature conservation. References: Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978. Karger, D.N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R.W., Zimmermann, N., Linder, H.P. & Kessler, M. (2016) Climatologies at high resolution for the earth land surface areas. arXiv:1607.00217 [physics].

Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum linked to continental arc flare-up in Iran?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Boon, A.; Kuiper, K.; van der Ploeg, R.; Cramwinckel, M.; Honarmand, M.; Sluijs, A.; Krijgsman, W.; Langereis, C. G.

2017-12-01

A 500 kyr episode of 3-5 °C gradual global climate warming, some 40 Myr ago, has been termed the Middle Eocene climatic optimum (MECO). It has been associated with a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but the source of this carbon remains enigmatic. We show, based on new Ar-Ar ages of volcanic rocks in Iran and Azerbaijan, that the time interval spanning the MECO was associated with a massive increase in continental arc volcanism. We also collected almost 300 Ar-Ar and U-Pb ages from literature. Typically, U-Pb ages from the Eocene are slightly younger, by 3 Myr, than Ar-Ar ages. We observed that U-Pb ages are obtained mostly from intrusive rocks and therefore must reflect an intrusive stage that post-dated extrusive volcanism. Combining all ages for extrusive rocks, we show that they cluster around 40.2 Ma, exactly within the time span of the MECO (40.5-40.0 Ma). We estimate volumes of volcanism based on a shapefile of outcrops and average thickness of the sequences. We calculate CO2 estimates using a relation volcanism-CO2 that was earlier used for the Deccan traps (Tobin et al., 2017). Our calculations indicate that the volume of the Iranian middle Eocene volcanic rocks (estimated at 37000 km3) is sufficient to explain the CO2 rise during the MECO. We conclude that continental arc flare-up in the Neotethys subduction zone is a plausible candidate for causing the MECO.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.

PubMed

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-28

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

PubMed

Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

2018-02-27

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.

PubMed

Naylor, Rosamond L; Battisti, David S; Vimont, Daniel J; Falcon, Walter P; Burke, Marshall B

2007-05-08

El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.

Geomorphic Response to Spatial and Temporal Tectonic uplift on the Kenya Rift of East African Rift System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Abdelsalam, M. G.

2017-12-01

Tectonic uplifts of the shoulders of the East Africa Rift System (EARS) have significant impact on the geological record by reorganizing drainage systems, increasing sediment supply, and changing climate and biogeography. Recent studies in geochronology, geomorphology and geophysics have provided some understanding of the timing of tectonic uplift and its distribution pattern of the (EARS). We do not know how the vertical motion is localized along the rift axis and the relative roles of upwelling of magma and rift extensional processes play in tectonic uplift history. This work presents detailed morphometric study of the fluvial landscape response to the tectonic uplift and climate shifting of the Kenya Rift shoulders in order to reconstruct their incision history, with special attention to timing, location, and intensity of uplift episodes. This work compiles the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Sentinel-2A data, summarized previous 39Ar-40Ar and thermochronology data, and calculates long-term incision rate and geomorphic proxies (normalized steepness and chi-integral) along the Kenya Rift. It also models the age of tectonic/climatic events by using knickpoint celerity model and R/SR integrative approach. It found that the maximum long-term incision rates of 300 mm/kyr to be at the central Kenya Rift, possibly related to the mantle-driven process and rapid tectonic uplift. The geomorphic proxies indicate southward decreasing pattern of the short-term incision rate, possibly related to the migration of the mantle plume.

Emergence of the significant local warming of Korea in CMIP5 projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo; Kim, Jee-Eun

2016-04-01

According to IPCC AR5, anthropogenic influence on warming is obvious in local scales, especially in some tropical regions. Detection of significant local warming is important for adaptation to climate change of society and ecosystem. Recently much attention has focused on the time of emergence (ToE) for the signal of anthropogenic climate change against the natural climate variability. Motivated from the previous studies, this study analyzes ToE of regional surface air temperature over Korea. Simulations of CMIP5 15 models are used for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. For each year, JJA and DJF temperature anomalies are calculated for the time period 1900-1929. For noise of interannual variability, natural-only historical simulations of CMIP5 12 models are used and the standard deviation of the time series is obtained. For signal of warming, we examine the year when the signal above 2 standard deviations is detected in 80% of the models using 30-year smoothed time series. According to our results, interannual variability is larger in land than ocean. Seasonally, it is larger in winter than in summer. Accordingly, ToE of summertime temperature is earlier than that in winter and is expected to appear in 2030s from three RCPs. The seasonal difference is consistent with previous studies. Wintertime ToE appears in 2040s for RCP85 and 2060s for RCP4.5. The different emergence time between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 reflects the influence of mitigation. In a similar way, daily maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed. ToE of Tmin appears earlier than that of Tmax and difference is small. Acknowledgements. This study is supported by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMR-2012-B-2).

The Earth System Grid Federation: An Open Infrastructure for Access to Distributed Geospatial Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ananthakrishnan, Rachana; Bell, Gavin; Cinquini, Luca

2013-01-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is a multi-agency, international collaboration that aims at developing the software infrastructure needed to facilitate and empower the study of climate change on a global scale. The ESGF s architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes, which are independently administered yet united by the adoption of common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The cornerstones of its interoperability are the peer-to-peer messaging that is continuously exchanged among all nodes in the federation; a shared architecture and API for search and discovery; and a security infrastructure based on industry standards (OpenID, SSL,more » GSI and SAML). The ESGF software is developed collaboratively across institutional boundaries and made available to the community as open source. It has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the entire model output used for the next international assessment report on climate change (IPCC-AR5) and a suite of satellite observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalysis data sets (ANA4MIPs).« less

The Earth System Grid Federation: An Open Infrastructure for Access to Distributed Geo-Spatial Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cinquini, Luca; Crichton, Daniel; Miller, Neill

2012-01-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is a multi-agency, international collaboration that aims at developing the software infrastructure needed to facilitate and empower the study of climate change on a global scale. The ESGF s architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes, which are independently administered yet united by the adoption of common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The cornerstones of its interoperability are the peer-to-peer messaging that is continuously exchanged among all nodes in the federation; a shared architecture and API for search and discovery; and a security infrastructure based on industry standards (OpenID, SSL,more » GSI and SAML). The ESGF software is developed collaboratively across institutional boundaries and made available to the community as open source. It has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the entire model output used for the next international assessment report on climate change (IPCC-AR5) and a suite of satellite observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalysis data sets (ANA4MIPs).« less

The Earth System Grid Federation : an Open Infrastructure for Access to Distributed Geospatial Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cinquini, Luca; Crichton, Daniel; Mattmann, Chris; Harney, John; Shipman, Galen; Wang, Feiyi; Ananthakrishnan, Rachana; Miller, Neill; Denvil, Sebastian; Morgan, Mark;

SPAGETTA: a Multi-Purpose Gridded Stochastic Weather Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, M.; Huth, R.; Rotach, M. W.; Dabhi, H.

2017-12-01

SPAGETTA is a new multisite/gridded multivariate parametric stochastic weather generator (WG). Site-specific precipitation occurrence and amount are modelled by Markov chain and Gamma distribution, the non-precipitation variables are modelled by an autoregressive (AR) model conditioned on precipitation occurrence, and the spatial coherence of all variables is modelled following the Wilks' (2009) approach. SPAGETTA may be run in two modes. Mode 1: it is run as a classical WG, which is calibrated using weather series from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. Mode 2: the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying AR model, which produces the multi-site weather series. Optionally, the user may add the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the synthetic series. The contribution consists of following parts: (a) Model of the WG. (b) Validation of WG in terms of the spatial temperature and precipitation characteristics, including characteristics of spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells. (c) Results of the climate change impact experiment, in which the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and the effect on the above spatial validation indices is analysed. In this experiment, the WG is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulations (CORDEX database). (d) The second mode of operation will be demonstrated by results obtained while developing the methodology for assessing collective significance of trends in multi-site weather series. The performance of the proposed test statistics is assessed based on large number of realisations of synthetic series produced by WG assuming a given statistical structure and trend of the weather series.

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand in the Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M. B.; Zhang, F.; Franklin, M.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2008-12-01

The impact of climate change on energy demand and use is a significant issue for developing future GHG emission scenarios and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. A number of studies have evaluated the increase in GHG emissions as a result of changes in energy production from fossil fuels, but the consequences of climate change on energy consumption have not been the focus of many studies. Here we focus on the impacts of climate change on energy use at a regional scale using the Midwestern USA as a test. The paper presents results of analyzing energy use in response to ambient temperature changes in a 17-year period from 1989 to 2006 and projection of energy use under future climate scenarios (2010-2061). This study consisted of a two-step procedure. In the first step, sensitivity of historic energy demand, specifically electricity and natural gas in residential and commercial sectors (42% of end-use energy), with respect to many climatic and non-climatic variables was examined. State-specific regression models were developed to quantify the relationship between energy use and climatic variables using degree days. We found that model parameters and base temperatures for estimating heating and cooling days varied by state and energy sector, mainly depending on climate conditions, infrastructure, economic factors, and seasonal change in energy use. In the second step, we applied these models to predict future energy demand using output data generated by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) for the SRES A1B scenario used in the IPCC AR-4. The annual demands of electricity and natural gas were predicted for each state from 2010 to 2061. The model results indicate that the average annual electricity demand will increase 3%-5% for the southern states and 1%-3% for the northern states in the region by 2061 and that the demand for natural gas is expected to be reduced in all states. A seasonal analysis of energy distribution in response to climate variables identifies a significant peak in demand in July-August (11%-16% in southern states and 6%-10% in the northern states). These findings suggest that the energy sector is vulnerable to climate change even in the northern Midwest region of the US. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a state-level assessment can help to better identify adaptation strategies for future regional energy sector changes.

Influence of atmospheric rivers on vegetation productivity and fire patterns in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; Soulard, Christopher E.

2017-01-01

In the southwestern U.S., the meteorological phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) has gained increasing attention due to its strong connections to floods, snowpacks, and water supplies in the West Coast states. Relatively less is known about the ecological implications of ARs, particularly in the interior Southwest, where AR storms are less common. To address this gap, we compared a chronology of AR landfalls on the west coast between 1989 and 2011 and between 25°N and 42.5°N to annual metrics of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an indicator of vegetation productivity) and daily resolution precipitation data to assess influences of AR-fed winter precipitation on vegetation productivity across the southwestern U.S. We mapped correlations between winter AR precipitation during landfalling ARs and (1) annual maximum NDVI and (2) area burned by large wildfires summarized by ecoregion during the same year as the landfalls and during the following year. Interannual variations of AR precipitation strongly influenced both NDVI and area burned by wildfire in some dryland ecoregions. The influence of ARs on dryland vegetation varied significantly depending on the latitude of landfall, with those ARs making landfall below 35°N latitude more strongly influencing these systems, and with effects observed as far as 1300 km from the landfall location. As climatologists' understanding of the synoptic patterns associated with the occurrence of ARs continues to evolve, an increased understanding of how AR landfalls, in aggregate, influence vegetation productivity and associated wildfire activity in dryland ecosystems may provide opportunities to better predict ecological responses to climate and climate change.

Influence of atmospheric rivers on vegetation productivity and fire patterns in the southwestern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Soulard, Christopher E.

2017-02-01

In the southwestern U.S., the meteorological phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) has gained increasing attention due to its strong connections to floods, snowpacks, and water supplies in the West Coast states. Relatively less is known about the ecological implications of ARs, particularly in the interior Southwest, where AR storms are less common. To address this gap, we compared a chronology of AR landfalls on the west coast between 1989 and 2011 and between 25°N and 42.5°N to annual metrics of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an indicator of vegetation productivity) and daily resolution precipitation data to assess influences of AR-fed winter precipitation on vegetation productivity across the southwestern U.S. We mapped correlations between winter AR precipitation during landfalling ARs and (1) annual maximum NDVI and (2) area burned by large wildfires summarized by ecoregion during the same year as the landfalls and during the following year. Interannual variations of AR precipitation strongly influenced both NDVI and area burned by wildfire in some dryland ecoregions. The influence of ARs on dryland vegetation varied significantly depending on the latitude of landfall, with those ARs making landfall below 35°N latitude more strongly influencing these systems, and with effects observed as far as 1300 km from the landfall location. As climatologists' understanding of the synoptic patterns associated with the occurrence of ARs continues to evolve, an increased understanding of how AR landfalls, in aggregate, influence vegetation productivity and associated wildfire activity in dryland ecosystems may provide opportunities to better predict ecological responses to climate and climate change.

Effect of argon and hydrogen on deposition of silicon from tetrochlrosilane in cold plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manory, R. R.; d.

1985-01-01

The roles of Ar and H2 on the decomposition of SiCl4 in cold plasma were investigated by Langmuir probes and mass spectrometry. Decomposition of the reactant by Ar only has been found to be very slow. In presence of H2 in the plasma SiCl4 is decomposed by fast radical-molecule reactions which are further enhanced by Ar due to additional ion-molecule reactions in which more H radicals are produced. A model for the plasma-surface interactions during deposition of mu-Si in the Ar + H2 + SiCl4 system is presented.

Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): Science Goals and Preliminary Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shields, C. A.; Rutz, J. J.; Wehner, M. F.; Ralph, F. M.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort whose purpose is to quantify uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) research solely due to different identification and tracking techniques. Atmospheric rivers transport significant amounts of moisture in long, narrow filamentary bands, typically travelling from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes. They are an important source of regional precipitation impacting local hydroclimate, and in extreme cases, cause severe flooding and infrastructure damage in local communities. Our understanding of ARs, from forecast skill to future climate projections, all hinge on how we define ARs. By comparing a diverse set of detection algorithms, the uncertainty in our definition of ARs, (including statistics and climatology), and the implications of those uncertainties, can be analyzed and quantified. ARTMIP is divided into two broad phases that aim to answer science questions impacted by choice of detection algorithm. How robust are AR metrics such as climatology, storm duration, and relationship to extreme precipitation? How are the AR metrics in future climate projections impacted by choice of algorithm? Some algorithms rely on threshold values for water vapor. In a warmer world, the background state, by definition, is moister due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, and could potentially skew results. Can uncertainty bounds be accurately placed on each metric? Tier 1 participants will apply their algorithms to a high resolution common dataset (MERRA2) and provide the greater group AR metrics (frequency, location, duration, etc). Tier 2 research will encompass sensitivity studies regarding resolution, reanalysis choice, and future climate change scenarios. ARTMIP is currently in the Tier 1 Phase and will begin Tier 2 in 2018. Preliminary metrics and analysis from Tier 1 will be presented.

Integration and Exposure of Large Scale Computational Resources Across the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, D.; Maxwell, T. P.; Doutriaux, C.; Williams, D. N.; Chaudhary, A.; Ames, S.

2015-12-01

As the size of remote sensing observations and model output data grows, the volume of the data has become overwhelming, even to many scientific experts. As societies are forced to better understand, mitigate, and adapt to climate changes, the combination of Earth observation data and global climate model projects is crucial to not only scientists but to policy makers, downstream applications, and even the public. Scientific progress on understanding climate is critically dependent on the availability of a reliable infrastructure that promotes data access, management, and provenance. The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) has created such an environment for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ESGF provides a federated global cyber infrastructure for data access and management of model outputs generated for the IPCC Assessment Reports (AR). The current generation of the ESGF federated grid allows consumers of the data to find and download data with limited capabilities for server-side processing. Since the amount of data for future AR is expected to grow dramatically, ESGF is working on integrating server-side analytics throughout the federation. The ESGF Compute Working Team (CWT) has created a Web Processing Service (WPS) Application Programming Interface (API) to enable access scalable computational resources. The API is the exposure point to high performance computing resources across the federation. Specifically, the API allows users to execute simple operations, such as maximum, minimum, average, and anomalies, on ESGF data without having to download the data. These operations are executed at the ESGF data node site with access to large amounts of parallel computing capabilities. This presentation will highlight the WPS API, its capabilities, provide implementation details, and discuss future developments.

Complexity and interdisciplinary approaches to environmental research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kammen, Daniel M.

2013-03-01

The launch of volume 8 of Environmental Research Letters (ERL) comes at a critical time in terms of innovations and exciting areas of science, but particularly in the areas linking environmental research and action. The most recent climate change Conference of the Parties meeting (COP), in Doha in December 2012, has now come and gone. As has been dissected in the press, very little was accomplished. Some will see this as a failure, as I do, and others will reasonably enough note that this meeting, the 18th such COP was1 never intended to be a milestone moment. The current plan, in fact, is for a 'post-Kyoto' international climate agreement to be adopted only at the COP20 summit in December 2015. As we lead up to COP20, and potentially other regional or national approaches to climate protection, innovations in science, innovations in policy tools, and political commitment must come together. The science of climate change only continues to get clearer and clearer, and bleaker [1]. Later this year the IPCC will release its Fifth Assessment Report, AR5. The draft versions are out for review now. ERL has published a number of papers on climate change science, mitigation and adaptation, but one area where the world needs a particular focus is on the nexus of science and action. A summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's findings from the first assessment report (FAR; 1990) to the latest report is presented in figure 1. This graphic is specifically not about the scientific record alone. What is most important about this figure is the juxtaposition of the language of science and the language of ... language. Figure 1. Figure 1. A superposition of the state of climate science in three key data sets, and the dates of the first, second, third and fourth assessment reports (FAR, SAR, TAR, and AR4, respectively) plotted as vertical lines. On the right are the key statements from each of these reports, along with the conclusion of the Special Report on Renewable Energy (SRREN, completed in 2011) which found that up to an 80% decarbonization of the global economy was possible if we can enable and launch a large-scale transition to a clean energy system consistent with what a number of 'leading edge' cities, regions, and nations have already accomplished or started. Note, in particular, that as the physical climate change metrics have progressed, the words—shown on the right—have also progressed. In 1990, at the time of the FAR the strongest scientific consensus statement was that another decade of data would likely be needed to clearly observe climate change. Through the second to fourth (SAR, TAR, and AR4) reports, increasing clarity on the science of climate change translated into a consensus of overwhelming blame on human activities. The key statements from each report are not only about the growing evidence for anthropogenically driven climate change, but they have moved into the ecological and social impacts of this change. AR4 critically concluded that climate change would lead to climate injustice as the poor, globally, bear the brunt of the impacts. Despite this 'Rosetta Stone' translating science to language, we have failed to act collectively. One area where ERL can advance the overall conversation is on this science/action interface. As AR5 emerges, the climate change/climate response interface will need deep, substantive, action that responds rapidly to new ideas and opportunities. The rapid publication and open access features of ERL are particularly critical here as events a such as Hurricane Sandy, economic or political advances in climate response made by cities, regions or nations, all warrant assessment and response. This is one of many areas where ERL has been at the forefront of the conversation, through not only research letters, but also commentary-style Perspective pieces and the conversation that ERL's sister community website environmentalresearchweb can facilitate. This process of translating proposed solutions—innovations—between interest groups, has been in far too short supply recently. One promising example has been the science/action dialog between a leading climate research center and the World Bank [2]. 'The Earth system's responses to climate change appear to be non-linear', points out Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Director, John Schellnhuber. 'If we venture far beyond the 2° guardrail, towards the 4° line, the risk of crossing tipping points rises sharply. The only way to avoid this is to break the business-as-usual pattern of production and consumption'. This assessment came in a report on climate science commissioned by the World Bank. Dr Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank noted succinctly and critically that: '... most importantly, a 4 °C world is so different from the current one that it comes with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan for future adaptation needs.' This statement warrants careful discussion. Not only is World Bank President Kim affirming the results of the PIK study, and by direct extension the IPCC (because the same authors at PIK are also central to the work of the IPCC), but he is clearly noting that while many climate analysts rightly talk about the need to not exceed a 2° temperature increase, the path the world is currently on, namely 4°-6° will be catastrophic. This may come as too soft a statement to many in the scientific community, but it opens the door to an increasingly detailed dialog between climate change science and agencies engaged in action. Where ERL and other outlets for this conversation can play a critical role is in the many dimensions of climate change and response. The story is far from one only at the global level. As http://climatehotmap.org and many other location specific assessments detail, the environmental change story is playing out in millions of critical cases. Each warrants reporting and action, as well as integration with assessments of current data gathering and 'big data' needs, and with wider socioeconomic questions of effective political, and policy response. Through that, dialog papers in ERL will be critically important to advancing not only climate science, but the interactive dialog between knowledge and action. References [1] Hansen J, Sato M and Ruedy R 2012 Perception of climate change Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109 E2415-23 [2] Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact 2013 Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 °C Warmer World Must be Avoided (Washington, DC: The World Bank) 1 The Kyoto Protocol was adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, and entered into force on 16 February 2005. As of September 2011, 191 states have signed and ratified the protocol. The United States signed but did not ratify the Protocol and Canada withdrew from it in 2011.

A Tale of Two Earths: Reconciling the Lunar and Terrestrial Hadean Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehnke, Patrick

Studying early Earth history is complicated by the fact that the rock record doesn't extend past 4 Ga and our only record for the Hadean (>4 Ga) comes to us from detrital zircons from the Jack Hills in Western Australia. The Hadean zircon record extends back to almost 4.4 Ga and has revealed that the early Earth may have had liquid water, a felsic crust, plate boundary interactions, and possibly a biosphere. On the other hand, analyses of lunar and meteoritic samples are used to argue for a hellish Hadean Earth where frequent, large impactors repeatedly destroyed the crust. Indeed, these two models stand in direct contradiction. The focus of this thesis is to examine the evidence for these two models and ultimately propose a reconciliation based on a new interpretation of the chronology of the lunar samples used to constrain the impact history into the early Earth-Moon system. In order to improve the understanding of zircon crystallization in igneous settings, we undertook experimental studies of zircon saturation which were analyzed using a novel ion imaging approach by a secondary ion mass spectrometer. This study confirmed the original model for zircon saturation, that it is a function of only temperature, melt composition, and Zr content. Indeed, the primary implication for the early Earth from this work is that zircons are much more likely to crystallize in a felsic rather than mafic magma and therefore simply the existence of Hadean zircons suggests a high likelihood for felsic Hadean magmatism. The majority of the thesis focuses on the interpretation of 40 Ar/39Ar ages of lunar and meteorite samples, specifically with regards to impact histories derived from compilations of such ages. The primary complication with lunar and meteorite 40Ar/ 39Ar ages is that the vast majority show evidence for later disturbances due to diffusive loss of 40Ar. To try and extract meaningful thermal histories from these samples, we undertook investigations of samples from Apollo 16 and the Jilin chondrite. We then used an extension of the multi-domain diffusion model that can model samples containing multiple activation energies (i.e., whole rock samples with multiple K bearing minerals) to propose that the 40Ar/39Ar system can be used to recover shock heating temperatures and durations. Having shown the effects of diffusive 40Ar loss on the accuracy of 40Ar/39Ar dating, we then explored the question as to whether or not compilations of disturbed 40Ar/ 39Ar ages simply misestimate the timing of bombardment episodes or are fundamentally inaccurate. For this we created a simple numerical model that simulates a chosen impact history on a surface and then creates a histogram of 40Ar/39Ar plateau ages. Our results show that rather than simply misestimate timing, compilations of 40Ar/ 39Ar ages can lead to inferences of illusory bombardment episodes. Finally, we examine the 40Ar/39Ar ages of suite of geochemically related Apollo 16 rocks to examine the effects of mixing and brecciation on the accuracy of inferred ages. By analyzing multiple rocks from each soil sample, we show that three out of six samples are not compatible with a single thermal history. That is to say, despite their close proximity during sampling and geochemical similarities, analyzed rocks in the soil sample have unique chronologies. Based on these findings, we developed a simple numerical model which shows that internal isochrons of mixed samples can yield erroneous ages while retaining a statistically acceptable mean squared weighted deviation (MSWD).

N deposition affects allelopathic potential of Amaranthus retroflexus with different distribution regions.

PubMed

Wang, Congyan; Liu, Jun; Zhou, Jiawei

2017-01-01

This study aims to determine the allelopathic potential of Amaranthus retroflexus (Ar) with different climatic zones on seed germination and growth of A. tricolor (At) treated with a gradient N addition. Ar leaf extracts only displayed significantly allelopathic potential on the underground growth of Ar but not the aboveground growth of At. The allelopathic potential of Ar leaf extracts on root length of At were enhanced under N addition and there may be a N-concentration-dependent relationship. The effects of the extracts of Ar leaves that collected from Zhenjiang on seed germination and growth of At may be higher than that collected from Jinan especially on root length of At under medium N addition. This reason may be the contained higher concentration of secondary metabolites for the leaves of plants that growths in high latitudes compare with that growth in low latitudes. This phenomenon may also partly be attributed to the fact that Ar originated in America and/or south-eastern Asia which have higher similarity climate conditions as Zhenjiang rather than Jinan. The allelopathic potential of Ar on seed germination and growth of acceptor species may play an important role in its successful invasion especially in the distribution region with low latitudes.

Reconstructing the Paleo-Limnologic Evolution of Lake Bonney, Antarctica using Dissolved Noble Gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warrier, R. B.; Castro, M.; Hall, C. M.; Kenig, F. P.; Doran, P. T.

2013-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, situated on the western coast of the Ross Sea are the largest ice-free region in Antarctica. Lake Bonney (LB), located in western Taylor valley, one of the main east-west dry valleys, has two lobes, East Lake Bonney (ELB) and West Lake Bonney (WLB), which are separated by a narrow straight with a ~13 m deep sill. Because the evolution of LB is ultimately controlled by climate and because there are no reliable millennial-scale continental records of climate other than the Taylor Dome ice core in this region of Antarctica, a number of studies have reconstructed the paleolimnologic history of LB using diverse tools to try to reconstruct the history of the lake, and thus, the climate evolution in this area. However, many open questions remain with respect to the paleo-limnologic evolution of LB. To further place constraints on the evolution of LB, we analyzed 23 lake samples collected between 5 and ~40 m depth from both ELB and WLB for He and Ar concentrations as well as isotopic ratios. Preliminary results show that samples present He excesses up to two and three orders of magnitude with respect to air saturated water (ASW) in ELB and WLB, respectively. While He excesses generally increase with depth in WLB suggesting accumulation of 4He over time, a similar correlation with depth is not observed for ELB samples, indicating a more complex evolutionary history in this lobe. Measured R/Ra He isotopic ratios, where Ra is the atmospheric 3He/4He ratio, vary between 0.20-0.61 and 0.16-0.22 for ELB and WLB respectively, and indicate that observed He excesses are predominantly crustal in origin, with a small (<~5%) mantle contribution. In contrast, measured 40Ar/36Ar ratios indicate that Ar concentrations at all depths in ELB are atmospheric in origin while WLB samples below the sill indicate addition of excess 40Ar, likely of radiogenic origin. Preliminary estimates of water residence times based on measured He excesses and crustal production ratios from basement rocks point to maximum water ages of ~5 kyrs and ~500 kyrs for the deep waters of ELB and WLB, respectively. Similarly, a maximum residence time of ~500 kyrs was obtained for bottom waters of WLB assuming a crustal origin for the observed excess 40Ar. These preliminary age results are maximum estimations and assume that all He and Ar excesses are entirely of crustal origin. Our preliminary results indicate that the WLB waters have been isolated from the atmosphere for a much longer period of time than ELB waters and point to a very different evolution of both lobes. In addition, these maximum WLB ages obtained are much younger than previously thought (~1-5 Ma).

Storm orientation impacts on atmospheric river induced precipitation efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, A.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) along the Pacific North coast are often associated with heavy winter precipitation and flooding. We analyze 35 years (1981 2016) of landfalling ARs over a transect along the U.S. West Coast consisting of four river basins from coastal Washington to Southern California (Chehalis, Russian, Santa Ana, and Santa Margarita Rivers) to assess the impact of storm orientation on precipitation rainout efficiency. We define precipitation rainout efficiency as the correlation coefficient between the net integrated vapor transport and precipitation rate. We use 6-hourly climate data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for each of the landfalling ARs. We compute storm orientation from CFSR wind vectors (daily averaged over atmospheric levels between 1000 hPa and 300 hPa) associated with each AR event. We also compute integrated vapor transport (IVT) by multiplying precipitable water by the wind vector and compare with daily averaged precipitation averaged over the river basins, where daily precipitation is taken from Parameter-Elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) to evaluate the impact of storm orientation on rainfall efficiency. We calculate the local topographic orientation of each river basin (slope and aspect) from ArcGIS, which we related to storm orientation. To evaluate the impact of storm orientation on rainout efficiency over the Russian River basin (Northern California), we first calculated approaching IVT (for all of AR induced precipitations from 1981 to 2016) and daily averaged precipitation rate. Next, we calculated the correlation coefficient between IVT and precipitation rate (for all AR induced rainouts over the Russian River basin). Finally, by considering the local topographical changes (slope and aspect from ArcGIS) and integrating them into an effective IVT, we compared the correlation coefficients between actual and effective IVT and basin-average precipitation. We find that over the Russian River basin, the rainout efficiency increases from 55 to 75 % when we account for storm orientation relative to topography.

Atmospheric Rivers, Climate Change, and the Howard Hanson Dam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Shaffer, K.; Brettman, K.

2017-12-01

All wintertime extreme precipitation and major flooding events in Western Washington are associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow bands of elevated integrated water vapor transport (IVT) stretching from the tropical Pacific Ocean to the Pacific Northwest coast. Several studies over the last decade have suggested that climate change could impact the intensity, frequency, timing, and structure of Pacific Northwest extreme precipitation. The Howard Hanson Dam is situated on the Green River in the central Cascade Mountains in Western Washington and is operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in Seattle. The reservoir behind the dam has two functions: It is the main water supply for the city of Tacoma and is filled during the summer months, and it is empty during winter months when it is used for flood risk management during AR events, protecting billions of dollars of infrastructure downstream. The reservoir is maintained by the Cascade Mountains' abundant winter snowpack and precipitation. Since the reservoir behind Howard Hanson Dam must be empty before the flood season starts and is reliant on snowpack and precipitation to fill in late spring, impacts due to climate change are important for how the USACE operates and manages flood risk and water supply in the future. This work describes changes in the structure, climatology, and seasonality of cool-season atmospheric rivers influencing the west coast of North America by examining the projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. There are only slight changes in AR frequency and seasonality between historical (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) periods considering the most extreme days (99th percentile) in integrated water vapor transport (IVT) along the West Coast, particularly along the southern part of the U.S. west coast, where some changes in the most extreme events are statistically significant. In contrast, using the number of future days exceeding the historical 99th percentile IVT threshold produces statistically significant increases in the frequency of extreme IVT events for all winter months. The peak in future AR days appears to occur approximately one month earlier.

Substituent effect in spin-crossover behavior of iron(II)-Ar-pybox complexes (Ar-pybox = 4-aryl-2,6-bis(oxazolin-2-yl)pyridine)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, Akifumi; Ishida, Takayuki

2018-01-01

Spin-crossover (SCO) is a reversible transition between low-spin (LS) and high-spin (HS) states by external stimuli like heat. The SCO behavior of [Fe(Ar-pybox)2](ClO4)2 was investigated, where Ar-pybox stands for 4-aryl-2,6-bis(oxazolin-2-yl)pyridine with Ar = 4-pyridyl (4Py), 3-thienyl (3Th), and phenyl (Ph). They were characterized by means of single-crystal X-ray diffraction study, being consistent with the results of the magnetic measurements. The SCO temperatures (T1/2) in the polycrystalline state were determined to be 360 and 230 K for Ar = 4Py and Ph, respectively. The 3Th derivative possessed a HS state in all the temperature range. The solution susceptometry was also performed to purge intermolecular interaction and rigid crystal lattice effects, affording T1/2 = 310, 240, and 240 K for Ar = 4Py, 3Th, and Ph, respectively, in acetone. The substituent effect analysis using the Hammett substituent constant (σp) clarified that electron-withdrawing groups raise T1/2. A plausible model describing the substituent effect on T1/2 is proposed based on d-π interaction. The present result is regarded as a successful example of crystal field engineering.

Blockade of adenosine A2A receptor enhances CD8+ T cells response and decreases regulatory T cells in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Ma, Si-Rui; Deng, Wei-Wei; Liu, Jian-Feng; Mao, Liang; Yu, Guang-Tao; Bu, Lin-Lin; Kulkarni, Ashok B; Zhang, Wen-Feng; Sun, Zhi-Jun

2017-06-07

Cancer immunotherapy offers a promising approach in cancer treatment. The adenosine A2A receptor (A2AR) could protect cancerous tissues from immune clearance via inhibiting T cells response. To date, the role of A2AR in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) has not been investigated. Here, we sought to explore the expression and immunotherapeutic value of A2AR blockade in HNSCC. The expression of A2AR was evaluated by immunostaining in 43 normal mucosae, 48 dysplasia and 165 primary HNSCC tissues. The immunotherapeutic value of A2AR blockade was assessed in vivo in genetically defined immunocompetent HNSCC mouse model. Immunostaining of HNSCC tissue samples revealed that increased expression of A2AR on tumor infiltrating immune cells correlated with advanced pathological grade, larger tumor size and positive lymph node status. Elevated A2AR expression was also detected in recurrent HNSCC and HNSCC tissues with induction chemotherapy. The expression of A2AR was found to be significantly correlated with HIF-1α, CD73, CD8 and Foxp3. Furthermore, the increased population of CD4 + Foxp3 + regulatory T cells (Tregs), which partially expressed A2AR, was observed in an immunocompetent mouse model that spontaneously develops HNSCC. Pharmacological blockade of A2AR by SCH58261 delayed the tumor growth in the HNSCC mouse model. Meanwhile, A2AR blockade significantly reduced the population of CD4 + Foxp3 + Tregs and enhanced the anti-tumor response of CD8 + T cells. These results offer a preclinical proof for the administration of A2AR inhibitor on prophylactic experimental therapy of HNSCC and suggest that A2AR blockade can be a potential novel strategy for HNSCC immunotherapy.

40Ar/39Ar geochronology of terrestrial pyroxene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ware, Bryant; Jourdan, Fred

2018-06-01

Geochronological techniques such as U/Pb in zircon and baddeleyite and 40Ar/39Ar on a vast range of minerals, including sanidine, plagioclase, and biotite, provide means to date an array of different geologic processes. Many of these minerals, however, are not always present in a given rock, or can be altered by secondary processes (e.g. plagioclase in mafic rocks) limiting our ability to derive an isotopic age. Pyroxene is a primary rock forming mineral for both mafic and ultramafic rocks and is resistant to alteration process but attempts to date this phase with 40Ar/39Ar has been met with little success so far. In this study, we analyzed pyroxene crystals from two different Large Igneous Provinces using a multi-collector noble gas mass spectrometer (ARGUS VI) since those machines have been shown to significantly improve analytical precision compared to the previous single-collector instruments. We obtain geologically meaningful and relatively precise 40Ar/39Ar plateau ages ranging from 184.6 ± 3.9 to 182.4 ± 0.8 Ma (2σ uncertainties of ±1.8-0.4%) and 506.3 ± 3.4 Ma for Tasmanian and Kalkarindji dolerites, respectively. Those data are indistinguishable from new and/or published U-Pb and 40Ar/39Ar plagioclase ages showing that 40Ar/39Ar dating of pyroxene is a suitable geochronological tool. Scrutinizing the analytical results of the pyroxene analyses as well as comparing them to the analytical result from plagioclase of the same samples indicate pure pyroxene was dated. Numerical models of argon diffusion in plagioclase and pyroxene support these observations. However, we found that the viability of 40Ar/39Ar dating approach of pyroxene can be affected by irradiation-induced recoil redistribution between thin pyroxene exsolution lamellae and the main pyroxene crystal, hence requiring careful petrographic observations before analysis. Finally, diffusion modeling show that 40Ar/39Ar of pyroxene can be used as a powerful tool to date the formation age of mafic rocks affected by greenschist metamorphism and will likely play an important role in high temperature thermochronology.

Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouet, L.; Bosetti, V.; Tavoni, M.

2015-10-01

Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks. Here we employ the best available knowledge so far, summarized by the three working groups of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; refs , , ), to quantify the uncertainty of mitigation costs, climate change dynamics, and economic damage for alternative carbon budgets. We rank climate policies according to different decision-making criteria concerning uncertainty, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. Our findings show that preferences over uncertainties are as important as the choice of the widely discussed time discount factor. Climate policies consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels are compatible with a subset of decision-making criteria and some model parametrizations, but not with the commonly adopted expected utility framework.

Interpolation and Meta-Analysis of IPCC AR4 General Circulation Model Scenarios applied to North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, D. T.; Joyce, L. A.; McKenney, D. W.

2009-12-01

Projections of future climate simulated by four state-of-art general circulation models (GCM), namely the U.S. NCAR CCSM 3.0, Canadian CGCM 3.1, Australian CSIRO Mk. 3.5 and Japanese MIROC 3.2, forced by each of the IPCC AR4 SRA2, SRB1 and SRA1B greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, were downscaled for Canada and the continental USA. For each GCM projection, monthly climate values for a rectangle covering North America were interpolated using ANUSPLIN (e.g., Hutchinson 1995), to a common 0.0833° geographic grid. The resulting 12 high resolution scenarios provide projected change factors for monthly solar radiation, windspeed and vapor pressure, air temperature and precipitation, for the 21st century, referenced to the averages of simulated monthly means for 1961-1990. The 12 interpolated scenario data sets were subjected to a meta-analysis. Data for each projected variable of each climate scenario were averaged for three consecutive 30-year periods (starting in 2011), to create scenario maps of changes in annual and seasonal means. The contiguous 48 U.S. States were grouped into seven regions based on the classification of Bailey (1994), with Alaska forming an eighth region, while Canada was divided into twelve regions based on the Canadian Terrestrial Ecozones (Wiken, 1986). In each region, data were spatially averaged (with area-weighting) and used to create graphs and summary tables of annual and seasonal trends, including long-term changes in interannual variability. Overall, the meta-analysis showed remarkable agreement among the four GCMs, in terms both of their sensitivity to increasing GHG forcing (SRB1→SRA1B→SRA2) and in the relative magnitudes of the climate changes projected for each scenario in each region. Temperatures were projected to increase by 2-4 °C in the southern USA (summer) to as much as 4-8 °C in northern Canada and Alaska (winter minima), by the mid-2080s, relative to 2000. Precipitation was projected to increase by 5-10% over the same period, but with distinct seasonal trends that differed among regions; one GCM projected significant decreases in precipitation in the southern USA. Solar radiation inputs were generally projected to decline slightly, showing consistent inverse relationships to projected precipitation changes, while vapor pressure generally increased, particularly in summer and particularly in coastal regions. Projected changes in interannual variability (based on ratios of predicted to observed standard deviations of annual and seasonal means for 2071-2100 and 1961-1990) were generally less consistent but often tended to decrease with increasing GHG forcing. The data sets will support national and regional climate change impacts studies, including the USDA Forest Service National Renewable Resource Assessment for 2010 and Canadian forest vulnerability assessment for the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers in 2011.

A CMIP5 Ensemble Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Durum Wheat Production in North Dakota, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dillon, T. D.; Kirilenko, A.

2016-12-01

North Dakota is the main US and one of the world's leading producers of durum wheat (Triticum durum), the hardest wheat variety with high protein content, used in multiple food products. We investigated potential change in durum wheat production in connection with climate change. The study accounted for variations in environmental conditions by running a dynamic wheat yield model in thirteen climatically different regions of the state. North Dakota climate is representative of highly productive agricultural lands of the Northern Great Plains, which encompass five US states and two Canadian provinces. Eastern part of North Dakota has humid continental climate while the western past is semi-desert with distinct west-to east precipitation gradient. Low mean average temperatures (cir. +4C), and high temperature variability lead to relatively short growing season (cir. 130 days). Combined with limited rainfall (cir. 350 mm in the East and 560 mm in the West), it makes agriculture highly dependent on temperature and precipitation. Accordingly, climate change has high potential impact on crop production in the region. We used the ALMANAC crop growth model to simulate the production of durum wheat. Model performance was estimated by comparison of simulated yields with historical observations; and was found satisfactory (RMSE < 1.00 T/ha*yr). To account for uncertainty in projected future climate, we used an ensemble of 17 CMIP5 GCMs run under four IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios, for two time periods characteristic of the 2040s and the 2070s. GCM output data were further downscaled using MarkSim weather generator. We found statistically significant reductions in mean yields in 96% of model runs for both time periods (t-test for independent samples; p<.05). In 2040s climate, yield decrease varied from 17% for RCP 2.6 to 45% for RCP 8.5; in 2070s climate - from 35% for RCP2.6 to 73% for RCP 8.5. Further research will concentrate on crop fail risk analysis and geographical heterogeneity of simulated changes.

Climate Vulnerability of Hydro-power infrastructure in the Eastern African Power Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridharan, Vignesh

2017-04-01

At present there is around 6000 MW of installed hydropower capacity in the Eastern African power pool (EAPP)[1]. With countries aggressively planning to achieve the Sustainable development goal (SDG) of ensuring access to affordable electricity for all, a three-fold increase in hydropower capacity is expected by 2040 [1]. Most of the existing and planned infrastructure lie inside the Nile River Basin. The latest assessment report (AR 5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates a high level of climatic uncertainty in the Nile Basin. The Climate Moisture index (CMI) for the Eastern Nile region and the Nile Equatorial lakes varies significantly across the different General Circulation Models (GCM)[2]. Such high uncertainty casts a shadow on the plans to expand hydropower capacity, doubting whether hydropower expansion can contribute to the goal of improving access to electricity or end up as sunk investments. In this assessment, we analyze adaptation strategies for national energy systems in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), which minimize the regret that could potentially arise from impacts of a changed climate. An energy systems model of the EAPP is developed representing national electricity supply infrastructure. Cross border transmission and hydropower infrastructure is defined at individual project level. The energy systems model is coupled with a water systems management model of the Nile River Basin that calculates the water availability at different hydropower infrastructures under a range of climate scenarios. The results suggest that a robust adaptation strategy consisting of investments in cross border electricity transmission infrastructure and diversifying sources of electricity supply will require additional investments of USD 4.2 billion by 2050. However, this leads to fuel and operational cost savings of up to USD 22.6 billion, depending on the climate scenario. [1] "Platts, 2016. World Electric Power Plants Database," World Electric Power Plants Database. [Online]. Available: http://www.platts.com/Products/worldelectricpowerplantsdatabase. [Accessed: 01-Mar-2016]. [2] Brent Boehlert, Kenneth M. Strzepek, David Groves, and Bruce Hewitson, Chris Jack, "Climate Change Projections in Africa-Chapter 3," in Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure : The Power and Water Sectors, Washington DC: The World Bank, 2016, p. 219.

Total Water Vapor Transport Observed in Twelve Atmospheric Rivers over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean Using Dropsondes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ralph, F. M.; Iacobellis, S.; Neiman, P. J.; Cordeira, J. M.; Spackman, J. R.; Waliser, D. E.; Wick, G. A.; White, A. B.; Fairall, C. W.

2014-12-01

Demory et al (2013) recently showed that the global water cycle in climate models, including the magnitude of water vapor transport, is strongly influenced by the model's spatial resolution. The lack of offshore observations is noted as a serious limitation in determining the correct amount of transport. Due to the key role of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in determining the global distribution of water vapor, quantifying transport from ARs is a high priority. This forms a foundation of the CalWater-2 experiment aimed at sampling many ARs during 2014-2018. In February 2014, an "early-start" deployment of the NOAA G-IV research aircraft sampled 10 ARs over the northeast Pacific Ocean. On six of these flights, dropsondes were deployed in a line crossing the AR so as to robustly sample the total water vapor transport (TVT). The TVT is defined here as the sum of the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) in the AR using a baseline that stretches from its warm southern (or eastern) edge to its cool northern (or western) edge. TVT includes both AR-parallel and AR-perpendicular transport. These data double the overall number of such cross-AR airborne samples suitable for calculating TVT. Analysis of TVT for these six new samples, in combination with the six previous samples from the preceding 16 years (from CalJet, WISPAR, and a Hawaii-based campaign), will be shown. A comparison will be made of the AR width and TVT determined using the well-established integrated water vapor (IWV) threshold of 2 cm, versus an IVT threshold of 250 kg m-1 s-1. Finally, the data from a well sampled case on 13 February 2014 (23 sondes with 75-100 km spacing) will be used to assess the sensitivity of TVT to dropsonde horizontal spacing and vertical resolution. This sensitivity analysis is of practical importance for the upcoming CalWater-2 field campaign where the G-IV will be used to sample many additional AR events, due to the relatively high cost of the dropsondes.

K-Ar age constrains on chemically weathered granitic basement rocks (saprolites) in Scandinavia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margreth, Annina; Fredin, Ola; Viola, Giulio; Knies, Jochen; Sørlie, Ronald; Lie, Jan-Erik; Margrethe Grandal, Else; Zwingmann, Horst; Vogt, Christoph

2017-04-01

Remnants of in-situ weathered bedrock, saprolite, are found in several locations in Scandinavia. Saprolites contain important information about past climate conditions and landscape evolution, although their age and genesis are commonly difficult to constrain. It is generally thought that clay-poor, coarse-grained (arêne) saprolites, mostly occurring as thin regolith blankets or in larger outcrops, formed in temperate climate during the Cenozoic, whereas clay-rich (argillic) saprolites, commonly restricted to small, fracture-bounded outcrops, formed in (sub-)tropical climate during the Mesozoic. Recent methodological and conceptual advances in K-Ar dating of illite-bearing fault rocks have been applied to date clay-rich saprolites. To test the K-Ar dating technique for saprolites, we first selected an offshore site in the Viking Graben of the North Sea, where weathered and fractured granitic basement highs have been drilled during petroleum exploration, and an abandoned kaolin mine in Southern Sweden. Both targets provide independent age control through the presence of overlying Mesozoic sedimentary rocks. Clay-rich saprolites occurring in fractured basement rocks were additionally sampled in a joint valley landscape on the southwestern coast of Norway, which can be regarded as the possible onland correlative to the offshore basement high. In order to offer a sound interpretation of the obtained K-Ar ages, the mineralogical and chemical composition of the saprolites requires a thorough characterization. Scanning electron microscopy of thin sections, integrated by XRD and XRF analysis, reveals the progressive transformation of primary granitic rock minerals into secondary clay minerals. The authigenesis of illite is particularly important to understand, since it is the only K-bearing clay mineral that can be dated by the K-Ar method. K-feldspars and mica are the common primary K-bearing minerals, from which illite can be formed. While progressive leaching of interlayer potassium is observed in micas without significant modification of the mineral structure, K-feldspars are gradually dissolved with concomitant precipitation of illite, smectite and kaolinite. Individual illite minerals are difficult to identify, but low-K contents in smectite point to small amounts of illite-interlayers. This finding is supported by XRD patterns (powder analyses on clay size fractions) that lack a clear 10 Å peak indicating the presence of illite/mica, but show a prominent and slight asymmetric 14 Å peak representing smectite with potential low (<10 %) illite-interlayer content. In agreement with previous models of diminishing contamination of protolithic K-bearing phases in the finest grain size fractions, K-Ar ages invariably decrease with grain size suggesting that the finest grain-size is predominantly composed of authigenic, syn-weathering illite, whose age can thus be used to constrain the timing of saprolitization. The obtained Late Permian to Late Triassic ages i) are in accordance with independent age constraints supporting previous hypotheses of intense chemical weathering during the Mesozoic and ii) correlate with similar K-Ar ages obtained from nearby brittle faults suggesting a genetic relationship between weathering and brittle deformation. The combined investigation and K-Ar dating of illite-bearing fractured and weathered bedrock provides new insights into the tectonic and climatic evolution of the Scandinavian landscape prior to the major, and often obliterating, Quaternary glaciations.

Modelling Atmospheric Rivers and the Potential for Southeast Texas Flooding: A Case Study of the Maya Express and the March 2016 Sabine River Flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntosh, J.; Lander, K.

2016-12-01

For three days in March of 2016, southeast Texas was inundated with up to 19 inches of rainfall, swelling the Sabine River to record flood stages. This event was attributed to an atmospheric river (AR), regionally known as the "Maya Express," which carried moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Sabine River Basin. Studies by the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center have shown that ARs are occurring more frequently due to the intensification of El Niño that increases the available moisture in the atmosphere. In this study, we analyzed the hydrological and meteorological setup of the event on the Sabine River to characterize the flood threat associated with AR rainfall and simulated how an equivalent AR event would impact an urban basin in Houston, Texas. Our primary data sources included WSR-88D radar-based rainfall estimates and observed data at USGS river gauges. Furthermore, the land surface parameters evaluated included land cover, soil types, basin topology, model-derived soil moisture states, and topography. The spatial distribution of precipitation from the storm was then translated west over the Houston and used to force a hydrologic model to assess the impact of an event comparable to the March 2016 event on Houston's San Jacinto River Basin. The results indicate that AR precipitation poses a flood risk to urbanized areas in southeast Texas because of the low lying topography, impervious pavement, and limited flood control. Due to this hydrologic setup, intense AR rainfall can yield a rapid urban runoff response that overwhelms the river system, potentially endangering the lives and property of millions of people in the Houston area. Ultimately, if the frequency of AR development increases, regional flood potential may increase. Given the consequences established in this study, more research should be conducted in order to better predict the rate of recurrence and effects of Maya Express generated precipitation.

(234)U/(238)U signatures associated with uranium ore bodies: part 3 Koongarra.

PubMed

Lowson, Richard T

2013-04-01

The Koongarra ore body is an early Proterozoic U ore body in the Alligator Rivers U province, Northern Territory, Australia. It has surface expression with a redox front located ∼30 m below the surface. The (234)U/(238)U activity ratios (AR) for the ground water and the amorphous phase of the solid have been analysed for the ore zone and dispersion halo as a function of depth. The results display a (234)U/(238)U AR signature with depth which may be common to all U ore bodies. The (234)U/(238)U AR is depressed below secular equilibrium in the weathered material above the redox front; rises significantly above secular equilibrium in the vicinity of the redox front; and is followed by a gradual decrease with depth below the redox front. The amplitude of the profile is a function of local conditions. A model is proposed for the signature in which oxidising waters preferentially leach the (234)U sites at the redox front due to preconditioning of the (234)U sites by α recoil during the decay of (23)(8)U to (23)(4)U. Mass balance requires the solid material left behind the redox front to have a (234)U/(238)U AR reduced below 1. Local second order effects may be superimposed on the signature. The signature may have application to calibrating scenarios for nuclear waste repositories, assisting in understanding historical climates, economic evaluation of U ore bodies and U exploration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Allergen sensitization linked to climate and age, not to intermittent-persistent rhinitis in a cross-sectional cohort study in the (sub)tropics.

PubMed

Larenas-Linnemann, Désirée; Michels, Alexandra; Dinger, Hanna; Shah-Hosseini, Kijawasch; Mösges, Ralph; Arias-Cruz, Alfredo; Ambriz-Moreno, Marichuy; Barajas, Martín Bedolla; Javier, Ruth Cerino; de la Luz Cid Del Prado, María; Moreno, Manuel Alejandro Cruz; Almaráz, Roberto García; García-Cobas, Cecilia Y; Garcia Imperial, Daniel A; Muñoz, Rosa Garcia; Hernández-Colín, Dante; Linares-Zapien, Francisco J; Luna-Pech, Jorge A; Matta-Campos, Juan J; Jiménez, Norma Martinez; Medina-Ávalos, Miguel A; Hernández, Alejandra Medina; Maldonado, Alberto Monteverde; López, Doris N; Pizano Nazara, Luis J; Sanchez, Emmanuel Ramirez; Ramos-López, José D; Rodríguez-Pérez, Noel; Rodríguez-Ortiz, Pablo G

2014-01-01

Allergen exposure leads to allergen sensitization in susceptible individuals and this might influence allergic rhinitis (AR) phenotype expression. We investigated whether sensitization patterns vary in a country with subtropical and tropical regions and if sensitization patterns relate to AR phenotypes or age. In a national, cross-sectional study AR patients (2-70 y) seen by allergists underwent blinded skin prick testing with a panel of 18 allergens and completed a validated questionnaire on AR phenotypes. 628 patients were recruited. The major sensitizing allergen was house dust mite (HDM) (56%), followed by Bermuda grass (26%), ash (24%), oak (23%) and mesquite (21%) pollen, cat (22%) and cockroach (21%). Patients living in the tropical region were almost exclusively sensitized to HDM (87%). In the central agricultural zones sensitization is primarily to grass and tree pollen. Nationwide, most study subjects had perennial (82.2%), intermittent (56.5%) and moderate-severe (84.7%) AR. Sensitization was not related to the intermittent-persistent AR classification or to AR severity; seasonal AR was associated with tree (p < 0.05) and grass pollen sensitization (p < 0.01). HDM sensitization was more frequent in children (0-11 y) and adolescents (12-17 y) (subtropical region: p < 0.0005; tropical region p < 0.05), but pollen sensitization becomes more important in the adult patients visiting allergists (Adults vs children + adolescents for tree pollen: p < 0.0001, weeds: p < 0.0005). In a country with (sub)tropical climate zones SPT sensitization patterns varied according to climatological zones; they were different from those found in Europe, HDM sensitization far outweighing pollen allergies and Bermuda grass and Ash pollen being the main grass and tree allergens, respectively. Pollen sensitization was related to SAR, but no relation between sensitization and intermittent-persistent AR or AR severity could be detected. Sensitization patterns vary with age (child HDM, adult pollen). Clinical implications of our findings are dual: only a few allergens -some region specific- cover the majority of sensitizations in (sub)tropical climate zones. This is of major importance for allergen manufacturers and immunotherapy planning. Secondly, patient selection in clinical trials should be based on the intermittent-persistent and severity classifications, rather than on the seasonal-perennial AR subtypes, especially when conducted in (sub)tropical countries.

Allergen sensitization linked to climate and age, not to intermittent-persistent rhinitis in a cross-sectional cohort study in the (sub)tropics

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Allergen exposure leads to allergen sensitization in susceptible individuals and this might influence allergic rhinitis (AR) phenotype expression. We investigated whether sensitization patterns vary in a country with subtropical and tropical regions and if sensitization patterns relate to AR phenotypes or age. Methods In a national, cross-sectional study AR patients (2-70 y) seen by allergists underwent blinded skin prick testing with a panel of 18 allergens and completed a validated questionnaire on AR phenotypes. Results 628 patients were recruited. The major sensitizing allergen was house dust mite (HDM) (56%), followed by Bermuda grass (26%), ash (24%), oak (23%) and mesquite (21%) pollen, cat (22%) and cockroach (21%). Patients living in the tropical region were almost exclusively sensitized to HDM (87%). In the central agricultural zones sensitization is primarily to grass and tree pollen. Nationwide, most study subjects had perennial (82.2%), intermittent (56.5%) and moderate-severe (84.7%) AR. Sensitization was not related to the intermittent-persistent AR classification or to AR severity; seasonal AR was associated with tree (p < 0.05) and grass pollen sensitization (p < 0.01). HDM sensitization was more frequent in children (0-11 y) and adolescents (12-17 y) (subtropical region: p < 0.0005; tropical region p < 0.05), but pollen sensitization becomes more important in the adult patients visiting allergists (Adults vs children + adolescents for tree pollen: p < 0.0001, weeds: p < 0.0005). Conclusions In a country with (sub)tropical climate zones SPT sensitization patterns varied according to climatological zones; they were different from those found in Europe, HDM sensitization far outweighing pollen allergies and Bermuda grass and Ash pollen being the main grass and tree allergens, respectively. Pollen sensitization was related to SAR, but no relation between sensitization and intermittent-persistent AR or AR severity could be detected. Sensitization patterns vary with age (child HDM, adult pollen). Clinical implications of our findings are dual: only a few allergens –some region specific- cover the majority of sensitizations in (sub)tropical climate zones. This is of major importance for allergen manufacturers and immunotherapy planning. Secondly, patient selection in clinical trials should be based on the intermittent-persistent and severity classifications, rather than on the seasonal-perennial AR subtypes, especially when conducted in (sub)tropical countries. PMID:24976949

Analyses of Projected Changes in Climate for Sub-Saharan Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

2012-12-01

The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is employed in this study as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. In the downscaling procedure, the sea-ice and bias-corrected SSTs of 6 CGCMs (CSIRO Mk 3.5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0, HadCM2, ECHAM5 and Miroc-Medres) from AR4 of the IPCC were first used as lower-boundary forcing in CCAM simulations performed at a quasi-uniform resolution (about 200 km in the horizontal), which were subsequently downscaled to a resolution of about 60 km over southern and tropical Africa. All the simulations were for the A2 scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and for the period 1961-2100. The SST biases were derived by comparing the simulated and observed present-day climatol¬ogy of SSTs for 1979-1999 for each month of the year; the same monthly bias corrections were applied for the duration of the simulations. CCAM ensemble projected change in annual average temperature and Rainfall for 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 for tropical Africa will be presented and discussed. In summary, a robust signal of drastic increases in surface temperature (more than 3 degrees C for the period 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990) is projected across the domain. Temperature increases as large as 5 degrees C are projected over the subtropical regions in the north of the domain. Increase in rainfall over tropical Africa (for the period 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990) is projected across the domain. This is consistent with an increase in moisture in a generally warmer atmosphere. There is a robust signal of drying along the West African coast - however, the CMIP3 CGCM projections indicate a wide range of possible rainfall futures over this region The projections of East Africa becoming wetter is robust across the CCAM ensemble, consistent with the CGCM projections of CMIP3 and AR4.

Investigation of the climate change within Moscow metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Trusilova, Kristina; Konstantinov, Pavel; Samsonov, Timofey

2014-05-01

As the urbanization continues worldwide more than half of the Earth's population live in the cities (U.N., 2010). Therefore the vulnerability of the urban environment - the living space for millions of people - to the climate change has to be investigated. It is well known that urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available temperature observations in cities are, however, influenced by the natural climate variations, human-induced climate warming (IPCC, 2007) and in the same time by the growth and structural modification of the urban areas. The relationship between these three factors and their roles in climate changes in the cities are very important for the climatic forecast and requires better understanding. In this study, we made analysis of the air temperature change and urban heat island evolution within Moscow urban area during decades 1970-2010, while this urban area had undergone intensive growth and building modification allowing the population of Moscow to increase from 7 to 12 million people. Analysis was based on the data from several meteorological stations in Moscow region and Moscow city, including meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Differences in climate change between urban and rural stations, changes of the power and shape of urban heat island and their relationships with changes of building height and density were investigated. Collected data and obtained results are currently to be used for the validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with the purpose to use this model for further more detailed climate research and forecasts for Moscow metropolitan area. References: 1. U.N. (2010), World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.Rep., 1-47 pp, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division., New York. 2. IPCC (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) Rep.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

The Risks of Missing the 2°C Target and the Risks of Framing the Target As 2°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, L. H.

2014-12-01

The publication of IPCC AR5 has made it very clear that we are at risk of missing the 2°C target. It has also made it clear that the risks of missing this target would be very dire. But when read through a precautionary lens, it also illustrates potential risks of framing an appropriate climate target as 2°C. We ought to be doing all we can to limit the extent of climate change as much as possible, and framing our target as limiting warming to 2°C may mask the demandingness and urgency of addressing climate change aggressively and holistically. In this session I will summarize my work on what precaution demands in the face of climate change and discuss how it applies to AR5. I argue for a Catastrophic Precautionary Principle that gives us strong moral reasons to take precautionary measures against threats of catastrophe, such as those posed by climate change. I will explain how the IPCC's discussion of the five reasons for concern about climate change support a strong moral argument that we ought to be taking a much more precautionary approach to climate policy than is currently evidenced by UNFCCC agreements and domestic policies around the world. While AR5 supports the conclusion that we should not risk missing the 2°C target, it also supports reevaluating what our target - and more generally what our comprehensive approach to climate policy - should be. In this way, I will discuss the complex science-ethics-policy nexus and the role of climate science in guiding precautionary global climate policies.

Restoration of the cellular secretory milieu overrides androgen dependence of in vivo generated castration resistant prostate cancer cells overexpressing the androgen receptor.

PubMed

Patki, Mugdha; Huang, Yanfang; Ratnam, Manohar

2016-07-22

It is believed that growth of castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) cells is enabled by sensitization to minimal residual post-castrate androgen due to overexpression of the androgen receptor (AR). Evidence is derived from androgen-induced colony formation in the absence of cell-secreted factors or from studies involving forced AR overexpression in hormone-dependent cells. On the other hand, standard cell line models established from CRPC patient tumors (e.g., LNCaP and VCaP) are hormone-dependent and require selection pressure in castrated mice to re-emerge as CRPC cells and the resulting tumors then tend to be insensitive to the androgen antagonist enzalutamide. Therefore, we examined established CRPC model cells produced by castration of mice bearing hormone-dependent cell line xenografts including CRPC cells overexpressing full-length AR (C4-2) or co-expressing wtAR and splice-variant AR-V7 that is incapable of ligand binding (22Rv1). In standard colony formation assays, C4-2 cells were shown to be androgen-dependent and sensitive to enzalutamide whereas 22Rv1 cells were incapable of colony formation under identical conditions. However, both C4-2 and 22Rv1 cells formed colonies in conditioned media derived from the same cells or from HEK293 fibroblasts that were proven to lack androgenic activity. This effect was (i) not enhanced by androgen, (ii) insensitive to enzalutamide, (iii) dependent on AR (in C4-2) and on AR-V7 and wtAR (in 22Rv1) and (iv) sensitive to inhibitors of several signaling pathways, similar to androgen-stimulation. Therefore, during progression to CRPC in vivo, coordinate cellular changes accompanying overexpression of AR may enable cooperation between hormone-independent activity of AR and actions of cellular secretory factors to completely override androgen-dependence and sensitivity to drugs targeting hormonal factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The evaluation and development of the Met Office Unified Model using surface and space borne radar.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petch, J.

2012-12-01

The Met Office Unified Model is used for the prediction of weather and climate on time scales of hours through to centuries. Therefore, the parametrizations in that model need to work on weather and climate timescale, and with grid-lengths from hundres of meters through to several hundred kilometres. Focusing on the development of the cloud and radiation schemes I will discuss how we are using ground-based remote-sensing observations from Chilbolton (England) and a combination of Cloudsat and Calipso data to evaluate and improve the performance of the model. I will show how the prediction of the clouds has improved since the AR5 version of the model and how we have developed an improved cloud generator to rebresent the sub-grid variability of clouds for radiative transfer.

Pseudoproxy Experiments Using the BARCAST Reconstruction Technique: Effects on Spatiotemporal Persistence Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsen, T.; Divine, D.; Rypdal, M.; Werner, J.; Rypdal, K.

2016-12-01

A modified two-dimensional stochastic-diffusive energy balance model (EBM) defined on a sphere was used for generating pseudoproxy/instrumental data and target data for surface temperature. The EBM is described in Rypdal et al. (2015). The target field has prescribed long-range memory (LRM) properties in time, and a frequency-dependent autocorrelation function in space. The Bayesian hierarchical model BARCAST, was used to generate surface temperature field reconstructions of an area corresponding to the European landmass for the past millennium. BARCAST has a built-in multivariate AR(1) model for the evolution of the temperature field, with an exponential, spatial covariance function, (Tingley & Huybers, 2010). The AR(1) process has a short-range memory, and we seek to find out how the competing spatiotemporal models influence the persistence of the reconstruction. A number of pseudoproxy experiments were performed with a fixed proxy network, using different signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) and colors of noise, (white/red). To study the persistence properties, the power-law relation of the power spectral density for LRM processes was used: S(f) f-β. The spectral exponent β was estimated both for local data and the spatial mean of the full region. The local β for the target varies between (0.1, 0.4), and for the spatial mean β 0.6. Results for the reconstructions show that the local and global memory is influenced by the noise color and level. Low noise levels or absence of noise results in reconstructions that exhibit similar properties as the target, while for higher noise levels the reconstructions have memory properties of a white/red character, (SNR=0.3 by standard deviation). Since an SNR of 0.5-0.25 is considered realistic for real proxy records, this implies that estimates of temporal persistence from proxy-based reconstructions reflect the proxy noise to a high degree, and not the signal as desired. Rypdal et al., 2015: Spatiotemporal Long-Range Persistence in Earth's Temperature Field: Analysis of Stochastic-Diffusive Energy Balance Models. J. Climate, 28, 8379-8395. Tingley & Huybers, 2010: A Bayesian algorithm for reconstructing climate anomalies in space and time. Part I: Development and applications to paleoclimate reconstruction problems. J. Climate, 23, 2759-2781.

Inhibition of Androgen Receptor Function and Level in Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Cells by 2-[(isoxazol-4-ylmethyl)thio]-1-(4-phenylpiperazin-1-yl)ethanone.

PubMed

Masoodi, Khalid Z; Eisermann, Kurtis; Yang, Zhenyu; Dar, Javid A; Pascal, Laura E; Nguyen, Minh; O'Malley, Katherine; Parrinello, Erica; Feturi, Firuz G; Kenefake, Alex N; Nelson, Joel B; Johnston, Paul A; Wipf, Peter; Wang, Zhou

2017-10-01

The androgen receptor (AR) plays a critical role in the development of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) as well as in the resistance to the second-generation AR antagonist enzalutamide and the selective inhibitor of cytochrome P450 17A1 (CYP17A1) abiraterone. Novel agents targeting AR may inhibit the growth of prostate cancer cells resistant to enzalutamide and/or abiraterone. Through a high-throughput/high-content screening of a 220,000-member small molecule library, we have previously identified 2-[(isoxazol-4-ylmethyl)thio]-1-(4-phenylpiperazin-1-yl)ethanone (IMTPPE) (SID 3712502) as a novel small molecule capable of inhibiting AR transcriptional activity and protein level in C4-2 prostate cancer cells. In this study, we show that IMTPPE inhibits AR-target gene expression using real-time polymerase chain reaction, Western blot, and luciferase assays. IMTPPE inhibited proliferation of AR-positive, but not AR-negative, prostate cancer cells in culture. IMTPPE inhibited the transcriptional activity of a mutant AR lacking the ligand-binding domain (LBD), indicating that IMTPPE inhibition of AR is independent of the LBD. Furthermore, animal studies showed that IMTPPE inhibited the growth of 22Rv1 xenograft tumor, a model for enzalutamide-resistant prostate cancer. These findings suggest that IMTPPE is a potential lead compound for developing clinical candidates for the treatment of CRPC, including those resistant to enzalutamide. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society.

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, P.J.; Harrison, S.P.; Brewer, Sandra; Connor, S.; Davis, B.A.S.; Gajewski, K.; Guiot, J.; Harrison-Prentice, T. I.; Henderson, A.; Peyron, O.; Prentice, I.C.; Scholze, M.; Seppa, H.; Shuman, B.; Sugita, S.; Thompson, R.S.; Viau, A.E.; Williams, J.; Wu, H.

2010-01-01

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance.

The Joint US/UK 1990 Epoch world Magnetic Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-10-01

N cE’ "- 4 94 0 -a N fP 9u 1 I. - 4 4I opN uI uI - - - - - - -- - 9 IrI 06 ~. -A 9u. f3 0. v’ u4 -3 .0- 4 CC 00 ’C. -u -29 G- 01 W’ 10’ WCC...RE/R AR=AOR**2 C C BR=0O. BT=0O. BP=0O. BPP =O. C DO 70 N=1,MAXORD AR=AR*AOR DO 60 M=0O,N C COMPUTE UNNORMALIZED, ASSOCIATED LEGENDRE POLYNOMIALS AND...N- 1) ELSEI PP(N)=CT*PP(N I )-K(N,M)*PP(N-.2) END IF PARP=AR*PP(N) BPP = BPP +FM(M)*TEMP2*PARP ENDIF C CI 60 CONTINUE 70 CONTINUE CI C IF (ST .EQ. 0.0

Mantle rare gas relative abundances in a steady-state mass transport model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porcelli, D.; Wasserburg, G. J.

1994-01-01

A model for He and Xe was presented previously which incorporates mass transfer of rare gases from an undegassed lower mantle (P) and the atmosphere into a degassed upper mantle (D). We extend the model to include Ne and Ar. Model constraints on rare gas relative abundances within P are derived. Discussions of terrestrial volatile acquisition have focused on the rare gas abundance pattern of the atmosphere relative to meteoritic components, and the pattern of rare gases still trapped in the Ear,th is important in identifying volatile capture and loss processes operating during Earth formation. The assumptions and principles of the model are discussed in Wasserburg and Porcelli (this volume). For P, the concentrations in P of the decay/nuclear products 4 He, 21 Ne, 40 Ar, and 136 Xe can be calculated from the concentrations of the parent elements U, Th, K, and Pu. The total concentration of the daughter element in P is proportional to the isotopic shifts in P. For Ar, ((40)Ar/(36)Ar)p - ((40)Ar/(36)Ar)o =Delta (exp 40) p= 40 Cp/(exp 36)C where(i)C(sub j) the concentration of isotope i in j. In D, isotope compositions are the result of mixing rare gases from P, decay/nuclear products generated in the upper mantle, and subducted rare gases (for Ar and Xe).

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

2016-05-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ˜ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

The Current Status and Future of GNSS-Meteorology in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J.; Guerova, G.; Dousa, J.; Dick, G.; Haan, de, S.; Pottiaux, E.; Bock, O.; Pacione, R.

2017-12-01

GNSS is a well established atmospheric observing system which can accurately sense water vapour, the most abundant greenhouse gas, accounting for 60-70% of atmospheric warming. Water vapour observations are currently under-sampled in operational meteorology and obtaining and exploiting additional high-quality humidity observations is essential to improve severe weather forecasting and climate monitoring. Inconsistencies introduced into long-term time series from improved GNSS processing algorithms make climate trend analysis challenging. Ongoing re-processing efforts using state-of-the-art models are underway which will provide consistent time series' of tropospheric data, using 15+ years of GNSS observations and from over 600 stations worldwide. These datasets will enable validation of systematic biases from a range of instrumentation, improve the knowledge of climatic trends of atmospheric water vapour, and will potentially be of great benefit to global and regional NWP reanalyses and climate model simulations (e.g. IPCC AR5) COST Action ES1206 is a 4-year project, running from 2013 to 2017, which has coordinated new and improved capabilities from concurrent developments in GNSS, meteorological and climate communities. For the first time, the synergy of multi-GNSS constellations has been used to develop new, more advanced tropospheric products, exploiting the full potential of multi-GNSS on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales - from real-time products monitoring and forecasting severe weather, to the highest quality post-processed products suitable for climate research. The Action has also promoted the use of meteorological data as an input to real-time GNSS positioning, navigation, and timing services and has stimulated knowledge and data transfer throughout Europe and beyond. This presentation will give an overview of COST Action ES1206 plus an overview of ground-based GNSS-meteorology in Europe in general, including current status and future opportunities.

An investigation of Ar metastable state density in low pressure dual-frequency capacitively coupled argon and argon-diluted plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Wen-Yao; Xu, Yong, E-mail: yongxu@dlut.edu.cn; Peng, Fei

2015-01-14

An tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy has been used to determine the Ar*({sup 3}P{sub 2}) and Ar*({sup 3}P{sub 0}) metastable atoms densities in dual-frequency capacitively coupled plasmas. The effects of different control parameters, such as high-frequency power, gas pressure and content of Ar, on the densities of two metastable atoms and electron density were discussed in single-frequency and dual-frequency Ar discharges, respectively. Particularly, the effects of the pressure on the axial profile of the electron and Ar metastable state densities were also discussed. Furthermore, a simple rate model was employed and its results were compared with experiments to analyze themore » main production and loss processes of Ar metastable states. It is found that Ar metastable state is mainly produced by electron impact excitation from the ground state, and decayed by diffusion and collision quenching with electrons and neutral molecules. Besides, the addition of CF{sub 4} was found to significantly increase the metastable destruction rate by the CF{sub 4} quenching, especially for large CF{sub 4} content and high pressure, it becomes the dominant depopulation process.« less

A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roderick, Michael L.; Farquhar, Graham D.

2011-12-01

We use the Budyko framework to calculate catchment-scale evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) as a function of two climatic factors, precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (Eo = 0.75 times the pan evaporation rate), and a third parameter that encodes the catchment properties (n) and modifies how P is partitioned between E and Q. This simple theory accurately predicted the long-term evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in southeast Australia. We extend the theory by developing a simple and novel analytical expression for the effects on E and Q of small perturbations in P, Eo, and n. The theory predicts that a 10% change in P, with all else constant, would result in a 26% change in Q in the MDB. Future climate scenarios (2070-2099) derived using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model output highlight the diversity of projections for P (±30%) with a correspondingly large range in projections for Q (±80%) in the MDB. We conclude with a qualitative description about the impact of changes in catchment properties on water availability and focus on the interaction between vegetation change, increasing atmospheric [CO2], and fire frequency. We conclude that the modern version of the Budyko framework is a useful tool for making simple and transparent estimates of changes in water availability.

Preparation of nanobubbles carrying androgen receptor siRNA and their inhibitory effects on androgen-independent prostate cancer when combined with ultrasonic irradiation.

PubMed

Wang, Luofu; Zhang, Miao; Tan, Kaibin; Guo, Yanli; Tong, Haipeng; Fan, Xiaozhou; Fang, Kejing; Li, Rui

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate nanobubbles carrying androgen receptor (AR) siRNA and their in vitro and in vivo anti-tumor effects, when combined with ultrasonic irradiation, on androgen-independent prostate cancer (AIPC). Nanobubbles carrying AR siRNA were prepared using poly-L-lysine and electrostatic adsorption methods. Using C4-2 cell activity as a testing index, the optimal irradiation parameters (including the nanobubble number/cell number ratio, mechanical index [MI], and irradiation time) were determined and used for transfection of three human prostate cancer cell lines (C4-2, LNCaP, and PC-3 cells). The AR expression levels were investigated with RT-PCR and Western blot analysis. Additionally, the effects of the nanobubbles and control microbubbles named SonoVue were assessed via imaging in a C4-2 xenograft model. Finally, the growth and AR expression of seven groups of tumor tissues were assessed using the C4-2 xenograft mouse model. The nanobubbles had an average diameter of 609.5±15.6 nm and could effectively bind to AR siRNA. Under the optimized conditions of a nanobubble number/cell number ratio of 100∶1, an MI of 1.2, and an irradiation time of 2 min, the highest transfection rates in C4-2, LNCaP, and PC-3 cells were 67.4%, 74.0%, and 63.96%, respectively. In the C4-2 and LNCaP cells, treatment with these binding nanobubbles plus ultrasonic irradiation significantly inhibited cell growth and resulted in the suppression of AR mRNA and protein expression. Additionally, contrast-enhanced ultrasound showed that the nanobubbles achieved stronger signals than the SonoVue control in the central hypovascular area of the tumors. Finally, the anti-tumor effect of these nanobubbles plus ultrasonic irradiation was most significant in the xenograft tumor model compared with the other groups. Nanobubbles carrying AR siRNA could be potentially used as gene vectors in combination with ultrasonic irradiation for the treatment of AIPC.

Preparation of Nanobubbles Carrying Androgen Receptor siRNA and Their Inhibitory Effects on Androgen-Independent Prostate Cancer when Combined with Ultrasonic Irradiation

PubMed Central

Tan, Kaibin; Guo, Yanli; Tong, Haipeng; Fan, Xiaozhou; Fang, Kejing; Li, Rui

2014-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to investigate nanobubbles carrying androgen receptor (AR) siRNA and their in vitro and in vivo anti-tumor effects, when combined with ultrasonic irradiation, on androgen-independent prostate cancer (AIPC). Materials and Methods Nanobubbles carrying AR siRNA were prepared using poly-L-lysine and electrostatic adsorption methods. Using C4-2 cell activity as a testing index, the optimal irradiation parameters (including the nanobubble number/cell number ratio, mechanical index [MI], and irradiation time) were determined and used for transfection of three human prostate cancer cell lines (C4-2, LNCaP, and PC-3 cells). The AR expression levels were investigated with RT-PCR and Western blot analysis. Additionally, the effects of the nanobubbles and control microbubbles named SonoVue were assessed via imaging in a C4-2 xenograft model. Finally, the growth and AR expression of seven groups of tumor tissues were assessed using the C4-2 xenograft mouse model. Results The nanobubbles had an average diameter of 609.5±15.6 nm and could effectively bind to AR siRNA. Under the optimized conditions of a nanobubble number/cell number ratio of 100∶1, an MI of 1.2, and an irradiation time of 2 min, the highest transfection rates in C4-2, LNCaP, and PC-3 cells were 67.4%, 74.0%, and 63.96%, respectively. In the C4-2 and LNCaP cells, treatment with these binding nanobubbles plus ultrasonic irradiation significantly inhibited cell growth and resulted in the suppression of AR mRNA and protein expression. Additionally, contrast-enhanced ultrasound showed that the nanobubbles achieved stronger signals than the SonoVue control in the central hypovascular area of the tumors. Finally, the anti-tumor effect of these nanobubbles plus ultrasonic irradiation was most significant in the xenograft tumor model compared with the other groups. Conclusion Nanobubbles carrying AR siRNA could be potentially used as gene vectors in combination with ultrasonic irradiation for the treatment of AIPC. PMID:24798477

Measurements and Slope Analyses of Quaternary Cinder Cones, Camargo Volcanic Field, Chihuahua, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallegos, M. I.; Espejel-Garcia, V. V.

2012-12-01

The Camargo volcanic field (CVF) covers ~3000 km2 and is located in the southeast part of the state of Chihuahua, within the Basin and Range province. The CVF represents the largest mafic alkali volcanic field in northern Mexico. Over a 300 cinder cones have been recognized in the Camargo volcanic field. Volcanic activity ranges from 4.7 to 0.09 Ma revealed by 40Ar/39Ar dating methods. Previous studies say that there is a close relationship between the cinder cone slope angle, due to mechanical weathering, and age. This technique is considered a reliable age indicator, especially in arid climates, such as occur in the CVF. Data were acquired with digital topographic maps (DRG) and digital elevation models (DEM) overlapped in the Global Mapper software. For each cone, the average radius (r) was calculated from six measurements, the height (h) is the difference between peak elevation and the altitude of the contour used to close the radius, and the slope angle was calculated using the equation Θ = tan-1(h/r). The slope angles of 30 cinder cones were calculated showing angles ranging from 4 to 15 degrees. A diffusion model, displayed by an exponential relationship between slope angle and age, places the ages of these 30 cones from 215 to 82 ka, within the range marked by radiometric methods. Future work include the analysis of more cinder cones to cover the whole CVF, and contribute to the validation of this technique.

Granger causality for state-space models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K.

2015-04-01

Granger causality has long been a prominent method for inferring causal interactions between stochastic variables for a broad range of complex physical systems. However, it has been recognized that a moving average (MA) component in the data presents a serious confound to Granger causal analysis, as routinely performed via autoregressive (AR) modeling. We solve this problem by demonstrating that Granger causality may be calculated simply and efficiently from the parameters of a state-space (SS) model. Since SS models are equivalent to autoregressive moving average models, Granger causality estimated in this fashion is not degraded by the presence of a MA component. This is of particular significance when the data has been filtered, downsampled, observed with noise, or is a subprocess of a higher dimensional process, since all of these operations—commonplace in application domains as diverse as climate science, econometrics, and the neurosciences—induce a MA component. We show how Granger causality, conditional and unconditional, in both time and frequency domains, may be calculated directly from SS model parameters via solution of a discrete algebraic Riccati equation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that Granger causality estimators thus derived have greater statistical power and smaller bias than AR estimators. We also discuss how the SS approach facilitates relaxation of the assumptions of linearity, stationarity, and homoscedasticity underlying current AR methods, thus opening up potentially significant new areas of research in Granger causal analysis.

Assessing the capability of high resolution climatic model experiments to simulate Mediterranean cyclonic tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Kostopoulou, E.; Kouroutzoglou, I.; Keay, K.; Simmonds, I.

2010-09-01

In this study, a comparison of a reanalysis driven simulation to a GCM driven simulation of a regional climate model is performed in order to assess the model's ability to capture the climatic characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean in the present climate. The ultimate scope of the study will be to perform a future climate projection related to cyclonic tracks in order to better understand and assess climate change in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes inter-monthly variations, classification of tracks according to their origin domain, dynamic and kinematic characteristics, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA model is employed based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the ERA402 with lateral Boundary conditions from ERA40 for the 43-year period 1958-2000, and b) the EH5OM_20C3M where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. The model experiments verify that considerable inter-monthly variations of track density occur in the Mediterranean region, consistent with previous studies. The classification of the tracks according to their origin domain show that the vast majority originate within the examined area itself. The study of the kinematic and dynamic parameters of tracks according to their origin demonstrate that deeper cyclones follow the SW track. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Evaluation of Water Quality Change of Brackish Lake in Snowy Cold Regions Accompanying Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, K.; Hasegawa, H.; Nakatsugawa, M.

2017-12-01

This study addresses evaluation of water quality change of brackish lake based on the estimation of hydrological quantities resulting from long-term hydrologic process accompanying climate change. For brackish lakes, such as Lake Abashiri in Eastern Hokkaido, there are concerns about water quality deterioration due to increases in water temperature and salinity. For estimating some hydrological quantities in the Abashiri River basin, including Lake Abashiri, we propose the following methods: 1) MRI-NHRCM20, a regional climate model based on the Representative Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC AR5, 2) generalized extreme value distribution for correcting bias, 3) kriging adopted variogram for downscaling and 4) Long term Hydrologic Assessment model considering Snow process (LoHAS). In addition, we calculate the discharge from Abashiri River into Lake Abashiri by using estimated hydrological quantities and a tank model, and simulate impacts on water quality of Lake Abashiri due to climate change by setting necessary conditions, including the initial conditions of water temperature and water quality, the pollution load from the inflow rivers, the duration of ice cover and salt pale boundary. The result of the simulation of water quality indicates that climate change is expected to raise the water temperature of the lake surface by approximately 4°C and increase salinity of surface of the lake by approximately 4psu, also if salt pale boundary in the lake raises by approximately 2-m, the concentration of COD, T-N and T-P in the bottom of the lake might increase. The processes leading to these results are likely to be as follows: increased river water flows in along salt pale boundary in lake, causing dynamic flow of surface water; saline bottom water is entrained upward, where it mixes with surface water; and the shear force acting at salt pale boundary helps to increase the supply of salts from bottom saline water to the surface water. In the future, we will conduct similar simulations for a larger area that includes the mouth of Abashiri River. The accuracy of flow field simulation for Lake Abashiri will increase when calculations incorporate the effects of climate change on tide level, water temperature and salinity at the river mouth.

Changes in continental Europe water cycle in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouholahnejad, Elham; Schirmer, Mario; Abbaspour, Karim

2015-04-01

Changes in atmospheric water vapor content provide strong evidence that the water cycle is already responding to a warming climate. According to IPCC's last report on Climate Change (AR5), the water cycle is expected to intensify in a warmer climate as the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This changes the frequency of precipitation extremes, increases evaporation and dry periods, and effects the water redistribution in land. This process is represented by most global climate models (GCMs) by increased summer dryness and winter wetness over large areas of continental mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, associated with a reduction in water availability at continental scale. Observing changes in precipitation and evaporation directly and at continental scale is difficult, because most of the exchange of fresh water between the atmosphere and the surface happens the oceans. Long term precipitation records are available only from over the land and there are no measurement of evaporation or redistribution of precipitation over the land area. On the other hand, understanding the extent of climate change effects on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance for public, private sectors, and policy makers when it comes to fresh water management. In order to better understand the extent of climate change impacts on water resources of continental Europe, we developed a distributed hydrological model of Europe at high spatial and temporal resolution using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The hydrological model was calibrated for 1970 to 2006 using daily observation of streamflow and nitrate loads from 360 gauging stations across Europe. A vegetation growth routine was added to the model to better simulate evapotranspiration. The model results were calibrated with available agricultural crop yield data from other sources. As of future climate scenarios, we used the ISI-MIP project results which provides bias-corrected climate data from the GCMs participating in the CMIP5 at 0.5° x 0.5° resolution. Data cover the time period from 1901 to 2099, i.e. the historical period, and future projections for all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). We used four different models output (GFDL, HADGEMES, MIROC, and IPSL) for all RCPs for near (2006-2035) and far (3065-2099) future. Multi-model ensembles (16 scenarios) are then used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on fresh water availability across Europe.

Atmospheric Rivers across Multi-scales of the Hydrologic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, H.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are defined as filamentary structures with strong water vapor transport in the atmosphere, moving as much water as is discharged by the Amazon River. As a large-scale phenomenon, ARs are embedded in the planetary-scale Rossby waves and account for the majority of poleward moisture transport in the midlatitudes. On the other hand, AR is the fundamental physical mechanism leading to extreme basin-scale precipitation and flooding over the U.S. West Coast in the winter season. The moisture transported by ARs is forced to rise and generate precipitation when it impinges on the mountainous coastal lands. My goal is to build the connection between the multi-scale features associated with ARs with their impacts on local hydrology, with particular focus on the U.S. West Coast. Moving across the different scales I have: (1) examined the planetary-scale dynamics in the upper-troposphere, and established a robust relationship between the two regimes of Rossby wave breaking and AR-precipitation and streamflow along the West Coast; (2) quantified the contribution from the tropics/subtropics to AR-related precipitation intensity and found a significant modulation from the large-scale thermodynamics; (3) developed a water tracer tool in a land surface model to track the lifecycle of the water collected from AR precipitation over the terrestrial system, so that the role of catchment-scale factors in modulating ARs' hydrological consequences could be examined. Ultimately, the information gather from these studies will indicate how the dynamic and thermodynamic changes as a response to climate change could affect the local flooding and water resource, which would be helpful in decision making.

Comparing Vertical Distributions of Water Vapor Flux within Two Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutz, J. J.; Lavers, D. A.

2015-12-01

The West Coast of North America is frequently impacted by atmospheric rivers (ARs), regions of intense horizontal water vapor transport that often produce heavy rain, flooding, and landslides when they interact with near-coastal mountains. Recently, studies have shown that ARs penetrate farther inland on many occasions, with indications that the vertical distribution of vapor transport within the ARs may play a key role in this penetration (Alexander et al. 2015; Rutz et al. 2015). We hypothesize that the amount of near-coastal precipitation and the likelihood of AR penetration farther inland may be inversely linked by vertical distributions of vapor fluxes before, during, and after landfall. To explore whether differing vertical distributions of transport explain differing precipitation and penetration outcomes, we compare two landfalling ARs that had very similar spatial extents and rates of vertically integrated (total) vapor transport, but which nonetheless produced very different amounts of precipitation over northern California. The vertical distribution of water vapor flux, specific humidity, and wind speed during these two ARs are examined along several transects using cross-sectional analyses of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis with a horizontal resolution of ~0.5° (~63 km) and a sigma-pressure hybrid coordinate at 64 vertical levels. In addition, we pursue similar analyses of forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System GEFS to assess whether numerical weather prediction models accurately represent these distributions. Finally, we calculate backward trajectories from within each AR to examine whether or not the origins of their respective air parcels play a role in the resulting vertical distribution of water vapor flux. The results have major implications for two problems in weather prediction: (1) the near-coastal precipitation associated with landfalling ARs and (2) the likelihood of AR penetration farther inland.

3-(Fur-2-yl)-10-(2-phenylethyl)-[1,2,4]triazino[4,3-a]benzimidazol-4(10H)-one, a novel adenosine receptor antagonist with A(2A)-mediated neuroprotective effects.

PubMed

Scatena, Alessia; Fornai, Francesco; Trincavelli, Maria Letizia; Taliani, Sabrina; Daniele, Simona; Pugliesi, Isabella; Cosconati, Sandro; Martini, Claudia; Da Settimo, Federico

2011-09-21

In this study, compound FTBI (3-(2-furyl)-10-(2-phenylethyl)[1,2,4]triazino[4,3-a]benzimidazol-4(10H)-one) was selected from a small library of triazinobenzimidazole derivatives as a potent A(2A) adenosine receptor (AR) antagonist and tested for its neuroprotective effects against two different kinds of dopaminergic neurotoxins, 1-methyl-4-phenylpyridinium (MPP+) and methamphetamine (METH), in rat PC12 and in human neuroblastoma SH-SY5Y cell lines. FTBI, in a concentration range corresponding to its affinity for A(2A) AR subtype, significantly increased the number of viable PC12 cells after their exposure to METH and, to a similar extent, to MPP+, as demonstrated in both trypan blue exclusion assay and in cytological staining. These neuroprotective effects were also observed with a classical A(2A) AR antagonist, ZM241385, and appeared to be completely counteracted by the AR agonist, NECA, supporting A(2A) ARs are directly involved in FTBI-mediated effects. Similarly, in human SH-SY5Y cells, FTBI was able to prevent cell toxicity induced by MPP+ and METH, showing that this A(2A) AR antagonist has a neuroprotective effect independently by the specific cell model. Altogether these results demonstrate that the A(2A) AR blockade mediates cell protection against neurotoxicity induced by dopaminergic neurotoxins in dopamine containing cells, supporting the potential use of A(2A) AR antagonists in dopaminergic degenerative diseases including Parkinson's disease.

Primary retention following nuclear recoil in β-decay: Proposed synthesis of a metastable rare gas oxide ((38)ArO4) from ((38)ClO4(-)) and the evolution of chemical bonding over the nuclear transmutation reaction path.

PubMed

Timm, Matthew J; Matta, Chérif F

2014-12-01

Argon tetroxide (ArO4) is the last member of the N=50 e(-) isoelectronic and isosteric series of ions: SiO4(4-), PO4(3-), SO4(2-), and ClO4(-). A high level computational study demonstrated that while ArO4 is kinetically stable it has a considerable positive enthalpy of formation (of ~298kcal/mol) (Lindh et al., 1999. J. Phys. Chem. A 103, pp. 8295-8302) confirming earlier predictions by Pyykkö (1990. Phys. Scr. 33, pp. 52-53). ArO4 can be expected to be difficult to synthesize by traditional chemistry due to its metastability and has not yet been synthesized at the time of writing. A computational investigation of the changes in the chemical bonding of chlorate (ClO4(-)) when the central chlorine atom undergoes a nuclear transmutation from the unstable artificial chlorine isotope (38)Cl to the stable rare argon isotope (38)Ar through β-decay, hence potentially leading to the formation of ArO4, is reported. A mathematical model is presented that allows for the prediction of yields following the recoil of a nucleus upon ejecting a β-electron. It is demonstrated that below a critical angle between the ejected β-electron and that of the accompanying antineutrino their respective linear momentums can cancel to such an extent as imparting a recoil to the daughter atom insufficient for breaking the Ar-O bond. As a result, a primary retention yield of ~1% of ArO4 is predicted following the nuclear disintegration. The study is conducted at the quadratic configuration interaction with single and double excitations [QCISD/6-311+G(3df)] level of theory followed by an analysis of the electron density by the quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM). Crossed potential energy surfaces (PES) were used to construct a PES from the metastable ArO4 ground singlet state to the Ar-O bond dissociation product ArO3+O((3)P) from which the predicted barrier to dissociation is ca. 22kcal/mol and the exothermic reaction energy is ca. 28kcal/mol [(U)MP2/6-311+G(d)]. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The helium isotopic chemistry of Lake Bonney, Taylor Valley, Antarctica: Timing of late holocene climate change in Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poreda, R.J.; Hunt, A.G.; Berry, Lyons W.; Welch, K.A.

2004-01-01

To better understand the long-term climate history of Antarctica, we studied Lake Bonney in Taylor Valley, Southern Victoria Land (78?? S). Helium isotope ratios and He, Ne, Ar and N2 concentration data, obtained from hydrocasts in the East (ELB) and West (WLB) Lobesof Lake Bonney, provided important constraints on the lake's Holocene evolution. Based on very low concentrations of Ar and N2 in the ELB bottom waters, ELB was free of ice until 200 ?? 50 years ago. After which, low salinity water flowing over the sill from WLB to ELB, covered ELB and formed a perennial ice cover, inhibiting the exchange of gases with the atmosphere. In contrast to the ELB, the WLB retained an ice cover through the Holocene. The brine in the WLB bottom waters has meteoric N2 and Ar gas concentrations indicating that it has not been significantly modified by atmospheric exchange or ice formation. The helium concentrations in the deep water of WLB are the highest measured in non-thermal surface water. By fitting a diffusional loss to the 3He/4He, helium, and Cl profiles, we calculate a time of ???3000 years for the initiation of flow over the sill separating the East and West Lobes. To supply this flux of helium to the lake, a helium-rich sediment beneath the lake must be providing the helium by diffusion. If at any time during the last million years the ice cover left WLB, there would be insufficient helium available to provide the current flux to WLB. The variations in water levels in Lake Bonney can be related to climatic events that have been documented within the Southern Victoria Land region and indicate that the lakes respond significantly to regional and, perhaps, global climate forcing. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe.

PubMed

Orth, René; Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-06-21

Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20(th) century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21(st) century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901-2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21(st) century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.

Allergic conjunctivitis in Asia.

PubMed

Thong, Bernard Yu-Hor

2017-04-01

Allergic conjunctivitis (AC), which may be acute or chronic, is associated with rhinitis in 30%-70% of affected individuals, hence the term allergic rhinoconjunctivitis (AR/C). Seasonal and perennial AC is generally milder than the more chronic and persistent atopic and vernal keratoconjunctivitis. Natural allergens like house dust mites (HDM), temperate and subtropical grass and tree pollen are important triggers that drive allergic inflammation in AC in the Asia-Pacific region. Climate change, environmental tobacco smoke, pollutants derived from fuel combustion, Asian dust storms originating from central/north Asia and phthalates may also exacerbate AR/C. The Allergies in Asia Pacific study and International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood provide epidemiological data on regional differences in AR/C within the region. AC significantly impacts the quality of life of both children and adults, and these can be measured by validated quality of life questionnaires on AR/C. Management guidelines for AC involve a stepped approach depending on the severity of disease, similar to that for allergic rhinitis and asthma. Topical calcineurin inhibitors are effective in certain types of persistent AC, and sublingual immunotherapy is emerging as an effective treatment option in AR/C to grass pollen and HDM. Translational research predominantly from Japan and Korea involving animal models are important for the potential development of targeted pharmacotherapies for AC.

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

Assessing ecosystem response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South Africa using ground- and satellite-based measurements and model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutsch, W. L.; Falge, E. M.; Brümmer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Schmullius, C.; Hüttich, C.; Odipo, V.; Scholes, R. J.; Mudau, A.; Midgley, G.; Stevens, N.; Hickler, T.; Scheiter, S.; Martens, C.; Twine, W.; Iiyambo, T.; Bradshaw, K.; Lück, W.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; du Toit, J.

2015-12-01

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences rapidly growing human population, intrinsically tied to substantial changes in land use on shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems due to over-exploitation. Significant conversions driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and fueling climate change are expected to increase in the immediate future. However, measured data of greenhouse gas emissions as affected by land use change are scarce to entirely lacking from this region. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. This will be achieved by (1) creation of a network of research clusters (paired sites with natural and altered vegetation) along an aridity gradient in South Africa for ground-based micrometeorological in-situ measurements of energy and matter fluxes, (2) linking biogeochemical functions with ecosystem structure, and eco-physiological properties, (3) description of ecosystem disturbance (and recovery) in terms of ecosystem function such as carbon balance components and water use efficiency, (4) set-up of individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements, (5) combination with long-term landscape dynamic information derived from remote sensing and aerial photography, and (6) development of sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation (by a suite of field measurements) of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations.

Implications of global warming for regional climate and water resources of tropical islands: Case studies over Sri Lanka and Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawalagedara, R.; Kumar, D.; Oglesby, R. J.; Ganguly, A. R.

2013-12-01

The IPCC AR4 identifies small islands as particularly vulnerable to climate change. Here we consider the cases of two tropical islands: Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean and Puerto Rico in the Caribbean. The islands share a predominantly tropical climate with diverse topography and hence significant spatial variability of regional climate. Seasonal variability in temperatures is relatively small, but spatial variations can be large owing to topography. Precipitation mechanisms and patterns over the two islands are different however. Sri Lanka receives a majority of the annual rainfall from the summer and winter monsoons, with convective rainfall dominating in the inter-monsoon period. Rainfall generating mechanisms over Puerto Rico can range from orographic lifting, disturbances embedded in Easterly waves and synoptic frontal systems. Here we compare the projected changes in the regional and seasonal means and extremes of temperature and precipitation over the two islands during the middle of this century with the present conditions. Two 5-year regional climate model runs for each region, representing the present (2006-2010) and future (2056-2060) conditions, are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the lateral boundary conditions provided using the output from CCSM4 RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions pathway simulation from the CMIP5 ensemble. The consequences of global warming for water resources and the overall economy are examined. While both economies have substantial contributions from tourism, there are major differences: The agricultural sector is much more important over Sri Lanka compared to Puerto Rico, while the latter exhibits no recent growth in population or in urbanization trends unlike the former. Policy implications for water sustainability and security are discussed, which highlight how despite the differences, certain lessons learned may generalize across the two relatively small tropical islands, which in turn have diverse economic, infrastructural, and societal constraints.

a Brazilian Vulnerability Index to Natural Disasters of Drought - in the Context of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camarinha, P. I., Sr.; Debortoli, N. S.; Hirota, M.

2015-12-01

Droughts are characterized as one of the main types of natural disasters that occur in Brazil. During the 1991-2012, droughts affected more than 14 million Brazilians, so that the concern for the following decades is about the potential impacts triggered by climate change. To analyze the vulnerability of the Brazilian municipalities to drought disasters, we have assessed the effects of climate change to droughts until the end of 21th century. A composite index was created based on three different dimensions: i) Exposure, represented by climate anomalies related to the drought process, such as changes in accumulated rainfall averages, interannual variability of rainfall, and the frequency and magnitude of severe droughts (measured by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index); ii) Sensitivity, encompassing socioeconomic, demographic, land use and water management data; iii) Adaptive Capacity, consisting of socioeconomic and institutional data from Brazilian municipalities, such as the Human Development Index (HDI), social inequality (Gini index) and illiteracy rate. The climate variables used in this study are results from simulations of the Regional Climate Model Eta (with a downscaling of 20km spatial resolution) nested with two global climate models (HadGEM ES and MIROC 5) and was provided by National Institute for Space Research. The baseline period was 1961-1990 and future periods was 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2099. For the simulations of future climate it was used the 4.5 and 8.5 IPCC/AR5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. All variables used in this study was handled, exploited and related in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The methodology allowed the identification of vulnerability hotspots, the targeting of adaptation strategies and the development of public policy to minimize the potential impacts of future droughts. The final results (see attached image) indicate that the most vulnerable regions are located in the Midwest, in the northeastern Brazilian semi-arid and also on western Amazon.

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Goñi, María Fernanda; Desprat, Stéphanie; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Bassinot, Frank C.; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Anderson, R. Scott; Behling, Hermann; Bonnefille, Raymonde; Burjachs, Francesc; Carrión, José S.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Clark, James S.; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Mustaphi, Colin. J. Courtney; Debusk, Georg H.; Dupont, Lydie M.; Finch, Jemma M.; Fletcher, William J.; Giardini, Marco; González, Catalina; Gosling, William D.; Grigg, Laurie D.; Grimm, Eric C.; Hayashi, Ryoma; Helmens, Karin; Heusser, Linda E.; Hill, Trevor; Hope, Geoffrey; Huntley, Brian; Igarashi, Yaeko; Irino, Tomohisa; Jacobs, Bonnie; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Kawai, Sayuri; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kumon, Fujio; Lawson, Ian T.; Ledru, Marie-Pierre; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Liew, Ping Mei; Magri, Donatella; Marchant, Robert; Margari, Vasiliki; Mayle, Francis E.; Merna McKenzie, G.; Moss, Patrick; Müller, Stefanie; Müller, Ulrich C.; Naughton, Filipa; Newnham, Rewi M.; Oba, Tadamichi; Pérez-Obiol, Ramón; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Roucoux, Katy H.; Rucina, Stephen M.; Scott, Louis; Takahara, Hikaru; Tzedakis, Polichronis C.; Urrego, Dunia H.; van Geel, Bas; Valencia, B. Guido; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Vincens, Annie; Whitlock, Cathy L.; Willard, Debra A.; Yamamoto, Masanobu

2017-09-01

Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

Composite Analysis of Cold Season Atmospheric River Events: Extreme Precipitation and Flooding over the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eldardiry, H.; Hossain, F.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are narrow elongated corridors with horizontal water vapor transport located within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. While it is widely known that most of heavy rainfall events across the western United States (US) are driven by ARs, the connection between atmospheric conditions and precipitation during an AR event has not been fully documented. In this study, we present a statistical analysis of the connection between precipitation, temperature, wind, and snowpack during the cold season AR events hitting the coastal regions of the western US. For each AR event, the precipitation and other atmospheric variables are retrieved through the dynamic downscaling of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis product using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF). The results show a low frequency of precipitation (below 0.3) during AR events that reflects the connection of AR with extreme precipitation. Examining the horizontal wind speed during AR events indicates a high correlation (above 0.7) with precipitation. In addition, high levels of snow water equivalence (SWE) are also noticed along the mountainous regions, e.g., Cascade Range and Sierra-Nevada mountain range, during most of AR events. Addressing the impact of duration on the frequency of precipitation, we develop Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves during AR events that can potentially describe the future predictability of precipitation along the north and south coast. To complement our analysis, we further investigate the flooding events recorded in the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) storm events database. While some flooding events are attributed to heavy rainfall associated with an AR event, other flooding events are significantly connected to the increase in the snowmelt before the flooding date. Thus, we introduce an index that describes the contribution of rainfall vs snowmelt and categorizes the flooding events during an AR event into rain-driven and snow-driven events. Such categorization can provide insight into whether or not an AR will produce extreme precipitation or flooding. The results from such investigations are important to understand historical AR events and assess how precipitation and flooding might evolve in future climate.

Report on the projected future climate of the Walnut Gulch Watershed, AZ

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This report is one of several that provides technical information on projected climate change at selected ARS experimental watersheds across the continental United States. The report is an attachment to the main report of the multi-location project titled “Estimating impacts of projected climate cha...

The new Mediterranean background monitoring station of Ersa, Cape Corsica: A long term Observatory component of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dulac, Francois

2013-04-01

The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx, http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr/) is a French initiative supported by the MISTRALS program (Mediterranean Integrated Studies at Regional And Locals Scales, http://www.mistrals-home.org). It aims at a scientific assessment of the present and future state of the atmospheric environment in the Mediterranean Basin, and of its impacts on the regional climate, air quality, and marine biogeochemistry. The major stake is an understanding of the future of the Mediterranean region in a context of strong regional anthropogenic and climatic pressures. The target of ChArMEx is short-lived particulate and gaseous tropospheric trace species which are the cause of poor air quality events, have two-way interactions with climate, or impact the marine biogeochemistry. In order to fulfill these objectives, important efforts have been put in 2012 in order to implement the infrastructure and instrumentation for a fully equipped background monitoring station at Ersa, Cape Corsica, a key location at the crossroads of dusty southerly air masses and polluted outflows from the European continent. The observations at this station began in June 2012 (in the context of the EMEP / ACTRIS / PEGASOS / ChArMEx campaigns). A broad spectrum of aerosol properties is also measured at the station, from the chemical composition (off-line daily filter sampling in PM2.5/PM10, on-line Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor), ground optical properties (extinction/absorption/light scattering coeff. with 1-? CAPS PMex monitor, 7-? Aethalometer, 3-? Nephelometer), integrated and vertically resolved optical properties (4-? Cimel sunphotometer and LIDAR, respective), size distribution properties (N-AIS, SMPS, APS, and OPS instruments), mass (PM1/PM10 by TEOM/TEOM-FDMS), hygroscopicity (CCN), as well as total insoluble deposition. So far, real-time measurement of reactive gases (O3, CO, NO, NO2), and off-line VOC measurements (cylinders, cartridges) are also performed. A Kipp and Zonen system for monitoring direct and diffuse broadband radiative fluxes will also be in operation soon, as well as an ICOS/RAMCES CO2 and CH4 monitoring instrument. Through this unprecedented effort and with the support from ChArMEx, ADEME, and CORSiCA programs (http://www.obs-mip.fr/corsica), this observatory represents so far the most achieved French atmospheric station having the best set of instruments for measuring in-situ reactive gases and aerosols. It stands out as the station of not one laboratory but of a large number (see list of co-authors). It provides "real time" information useful to the local air quality network (Qualitair Corse, http://www.qualitaircorse.org/) concerning EU regulated parameters (O3, PMx). This station aims providing quality controlled climatically relevant gas/aerosol database following the recommendations of the EU-FP7 ACTRIS infrastructure, EMEP and WMO-GAW programs. Atmospheric datasets are currently available at the MISTRALS database (http://mistrals.sedoo.fr/ChArMEx/) and soon at the ACTRIS & GAW databases. After a brief presentation of the Cape Corsica Station (location, climatology, instrumental settings ...), we present here the first months of aerosols properties (optical / chemical / particle size) obtained at this station. Acknowledgements: the station is mainly supported by ADEME, CNRS-INSU, CEA, CTC, EMD, FEDER, and Météo-France.

The Agriculture Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2010-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and world agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Historical period results will spur model improvement and interaction among major modeling groups, while future period results will lead directly to tests of adaptation and mitigation strategies across a range of scales. AgMIP will consist of a multi-scale impact assessment utilizing the latest methods for climate and agricultural scenario generation. Scenarios and modeling protocols will be distributed on the web, and multi-model results will be collated and analyzed to ensure the widest possible coverage of agricultural crops and regions. AgMIP will place regional changes in agricultural production in a global context that reflects new trading opportunities, imbalances, and shortages in world markets resulting from climate change and other driving forces for food supply. Such projections are essential inputs from the Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation (VIA) research community to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (AR5), now underway, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. They will set the context for local-scale vulnerability and adaptation studies, supply test scenarios for national-scale development of trade policy instruments, provide critical information on changing supply and demand for water resources, and elucidate interactive effects of climate change and land use change. AgMIP will not only provide crucially-needed new global estimates of how climate change will affect food supply and hunger in the agricultural regions of the world, but it will also build the capabilities of developing countries to estimate how climate change will affect their supply and demand for food.

Analysis of Changes in the Lorenz Energy Budget of the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, T. D.

2009-12-01

Several recent papers have addressed the topic of changes in global precipitation rates related to changes in Earth's global energy balance. Less studied are the processes that may be governing the large-scale regional distribution of precipitation around the globe. This study uses the energy budget partition paradigm first put forth by Lorenz (1955) and follows the methodology of Arpé et al. (1986) and Oriol (1982) to identify latitude bands where the partition of energy amongst zonal and eddy kinetic and potential energy bins may account for the spatial patterns of precipitation change predicted by many IPCC AR4 models. In doing so, this study may help to identify whether or not the climate change predicted by these models is indeed creating enhanced baroclinic storms in the mid-latitudes or if there are other mechanisms at work producing the patterns of precipitation change.

Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Zeng, N.; Yoon, J.-H.

2010-05-01

Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable as rainfall is projected to increase in nearly all models. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge of the Amazon and further south in central Brazil, are in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. Firstly, a decline in precipitation of 22% in the southern Amazon's dry season (May-September) reduces soil moisture, despite an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to nonlinear responses in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season rainfall: (1) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure; (2) a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, and to lesser degree a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific. Secondly, evaporation demand will increase due to the general warming, further reducing soil moisture. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. The drying corresponds to a lengthening of the dry season by 11 days. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of 20% in vegetation carbon stock in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Further, VEGAS predicts enhancement of fire risk by 10-15%. The increase in fire is primarily due to the reduction in soil moisture, and the decrease in dry season rainfall, which is when fire danger reaches its peak. Because the southern Amazon is also under intense human influence as a result of deforestation and land use, added pressure to the region's ecosystems from climate change may subject the region to profound changes in the 21st century.

The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCCAR4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael

2005-07-08

SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a result of the direct importance of climate change to society, climate change research is highly coordinated at the international level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with providing regular reports on the state of climate change research to government policymakers. These reports are the product of thousands of scientists efforts. A series of reviews involving both scientists and policymakersmore » make them among the most reviewed documents produced in any scientific field. The high profile of these reports acts a driver to many researchers in the climate sciences. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is scheduled to be released in 2007. SciDAC sponsored research has enabled the United States climate modeling community to make significant contributions to this report. Two large multi-Laboratory SciDAC projects are directly relevant to the activities of the IPCC. The first, entitled ''Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers'', has made important software contributions to the recently released third version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This is a multi-institutional project involving Los Alamos National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The original principal investigators were Robert Malone and John B. Drake. The current principal investigators are Phil Jones and John B. Drake. The second project, entitled ''Earth System Grid II: Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources'' aims to facilitate the distribution of the copious amounts of data produced by coupled climate model integrations to the general scientific community. This is also a multi-institutional project involving Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The principal investigators are Ian Foster, Don Middleton and Dean Williams. Perhaps most significant among the activities of the ''Collaborative Design'', project was the development of an efficient multi-processor coupling package. CCSM3.0 is an extraordinarily complicated physics code. The fully coupled model consists of separate submodels of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land. In addition, comprehensive biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemistry submodels are under intensive current development. Each of these submodels is a large and sophisticated program in its own right. Furthermore, in the coupled model, each of the submodels, including the coupler, is a separate multiprocessor executable program. The coupler package must efficiently coordinate the communication as well as interpolate or aggregate information between these programs. This regridding function is necessary because each major subsystem (air, water or surface) is allowed to have its own independent grid.« less

The inheritance of a Mesozoic landscape in western Scandinavia

PubMed Central

Fredin, Ola; Viola, Giulio; Zwingmann, Horst; Sørlie, Ronald; Brönner, Marco; Lie, Jan-Erik; Grandal, Else Margrethe; Müller, Axel; Margreth, Annina; Vogt, Christoph; Knies, Jochen

2017-01-01

In-situ weathered bedrock, saprolite, is locally found in Scandinavia, where it is commonly thought to represent pre-Pleistocene weathering possibly associated with landscape formation. The age of weathering, however, remains loosely constrained, which has an impact on existing geological and landscape evolution models and morphotectonic correlations. Here we provide new geochronological evidence that some of the low-altitude basement landforms on- and offshore southwestern Scandinavia are a rejuvenated geomorphological relic from Mesozoic times. K-Ar dating of authigenic, syn-weathering illite from saprolitic remnants constrains original basement exposure in the Late Triassic (221.3±7.0–206.2±4.2 Ma) through deep weathering in a warm climate and subsequent partial mobilization of the saprolitic mantle into the overlying sediment cascade system. The data support the bulk geomorphological development of west Scandinavia coastal basement rocks during the Mesozoic and later, long-lasting relative tectonic stability. Pleistocene glaciations played an additional geomorphological role, selectively stripping the landscape from the Mesozoic overburden and carving glacial landforms down to Plio–Pleistocene times. Saprolite K-Ar dating offers unprecedented possibilities to study past weathering and landscape evolution processes. PMID:28452366

Precessional forcing of lacustrine sedimentation in the late Cenozoic Chemeron Basin, Central Kenya Rift, and calibration of the Gauss/Matuyama boundary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deino, A.L.; Kingston, J.D.; Glen, J.M.; Edgar, R.K.; Hill, A.

2006-01-01

The fluviolacustrine sedimentary sequence of the Chemeron Formation exposed in the Barsemoi River drainage, Tugen Hills, Kenya, contains a package of five successive diatomite/fluvial cycles that record the periodic development of freshwater lakes within the axial portion of the Central Kenya Rift. The overwhelming abundance in the diatomite of planktonic species of the genera Aulacoseira and Stephanodiscus, and the virtual absence of benthic littoral diatoms and detrital material indicate areally extensive, deep lake systems. A paleomagnetic reversal stratigraphy has been determined and chronostratigraphic tie points established by 40Ar/39Ar dating of intercalated tuffs. The sequence spans the interval 3.1-2.35??Ma and bears a detailed record of the Gauss/Matuyama paleomagnetic transition. The 40Ar/39Ar age for this boundary of 2.589 ?? 0.003??Ma can be adjusted to concordance with the Astronomical Polarity Time Scale (APTS) on the basis of an independent calibration to 2.610??Ma, 29??kyr older than the previous APTS age. The diatomites recur at an orbital precessional interval of 23??kyr and are centered on a 400-kyr eccentricity maximum. It is concluded that these diatomite/fluvial cycles reflect a narrow interval of orbitally forced wet/dry climatic conditions that may be expressed regionally across East Africa. The timing of the lacustrine pulses relative to predicted insolation models favors origination of moisture from the northern Africa monsoon, rather than local circulation driven by direct equatorial insolation. This moisture event at 2.7-2.55??Ma, and later East African episodes at 1.9-1.7 and 1.1-0.9??Ma, are approximately coincident with major global climatic and oceanographic events. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High Resolution Modeling of Hurricanes in a Climate Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knutson, T. R.

2007-12-01

Modeling of tropical cyclone activity in a climate context initially focused on simulation of relatively weak tropical storm-like disturbances as resolved by coarse grid (200 km) global models. As computing power has increased, multi-year simulations with global models of grid spacing 20-30 km have become feasible. Increased resolution also allowed for simulation storms of increasing intensity, and some global models generate storms of hurricane strength, depending on their resolution and other factors, although detailed hurricane structure is not simulated realistically. Results from some recent high resolution global model studies are reviewed. An alternative for hurricane simulation is regional downscaling. An early approach was to embed an operational (GFDL) hurricane prediction model within a global model solution, either for 5-day case studies of particular model storm cases, or for "idealized experiments" where an initial vortex is inserted into an idealized environments derived from global model statistics. Using this approach, hurricanes up to category five intensity can be simulated, owing to the model's relatively high resolution (9 km grid) and refined physics. Variants on this approach have been used to provide modeling support for theoretical predictions that greenhouse warming will increase the maximum intensities of hurricanes. These modeling studies also simulate increased hurricane rainfall rates in a warmer climate. The studies do not address hurricane frequency issues, and vertical shear is neglected in the idealized studies. A recent development is the use of regional model dynamical downscaling for extended (e.g., season-length) integrations of hurricane activity. In a study for the Atlantic basin, a non-hydrostatic model with grid spacing of 18km is run without convective parameterization, but with internal spectral nudging toward observed large-scale (basin wavenumbers 0-2) atmospheric conditions from reanalyses. Using this approach, our model reproduces the observed increase in Atlantic hurricane activity (numbers, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), Power Dissipation Index (PDI), etc.) over the period 1980-2006 fairly realistically, and also simulates ENSO-related interannual variations in hurricane counts. Annual simulated hurricane counts from a two-member ensemble correlate with observed counts at r=0.86. However, the model does not simulate hurricanes as intense as those observed, with minimum central pressures of 937 hPa (category 4) and maximum surface winds of 47 m/s (category 2) being the most intense simulated so far in these experiments. To explore possible impacts of future climate warming on Atlantic hurricane activity, we are re-running the 1980- 2006 seasons, keeping the interannual to multidecadal variations unchanged, but altering the August-October mean climate according to changes simulated by an 18-member ensemble of AR4 climate models (years 2080- 2099, A1B emission scenario). The warmer climate state features higher Atlantic SSTs, and also increased vertical wind shear across the Caribbean (Vecchi and Soden, GRL 2007). A key assumption of this approach is that the 18-model ensemble-mean climate change is the best available projection of future climate change in the Atlantic. Some of the 18 global models show little increase in wind shear, or even a decrease, and thus there will be considerable uncertainty associated with the hurricane frequency results, which will require further exploration. Results from our simulations will be presented at the meeting.

Fluid simulation of species concentrations in capacitively coupled N2/Ar plasmas: Effect of gas proportion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Ying-Shuang; Liu, Gang-Hu; Xue, Chan; Liu, Yong-Xin; Wang, You-Nian

2017-05-01

A two-dimensional self-consistent fluid model and the experimental diagnostic are employed to investigate the dependencies of species concentrations on the gas proportion in the capacitive N2/Ar discharges operated at 60 MHz, 50 Pa, and 140 W. The results indicate that the N2/Ar proportion has a considerable impact on the species densities. As the N2 fraction increases, the electron density, as well as the Ar+ and Arm densities, decreases remarkably. On the contrary, the N2 + density is demonstrated to increase monotonically with the N2 fraction. Moreover, the N density is observed to increase significantly with the N2 fraction at the N2 fractions below 40%, beyond which it decreases slightly. The electrons are primarily generated via the electron impact ionization of the feed gases. The electron impact ionization of Ar essentially determines the Ar+ density. For the N2 + production, the charge transition process between the Ar+ ions and the feed gas N2 dominates at low N2 fraction, while the electron impact ionization of N2 plays the more important role at high N2 fraction. At any gas mixtures, more than 60% Arm atoms are generated through the radiative decay process from Ar(4p). The dissociation of the feed gas N2 by the excited Ar atoms and by the electrons is responsible for the N formation at low N2 fraction and high N2 fraction, respectively. To validate the simulation results, the floating double probe and the optical emission spectroscopy are employed to measure the total positive ion density and the emission intensity originating from Ar(4p) transitions, respectively. The results from the simulation show a qualitative agreement with that from the experiment, which indicates the reliable model.

40Ar/ 39Ar, K-Ar and 230Th- 238U dating of the Laschamp excursion: A radioisotopic tie-point for ice core and climate chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Brad S.; Guillou, Hervé; Jicha, Brian R.; Laj, Carlo; Kissel, Catherine; Beard, Brian L.; Johnson, Clark M.

2009-08-01

A brief period of enhanced 10Be flux that straddles the interstadial warm period known as Dansgaard-Oeschger event 10 in Greenland and its counterpart in Antarctica, the Antarctic Isotope Maximum 10 is but one consequence of the weakening of Earth's magnetic field associated with the Laschamp excursion. This 10Be peak measured in the GRIP ice core is dated at 41,250 y b2k (= before year 2000 AD) in the most recent GICC05 age model obtained from the NorthGRIP core via multi-parameter counting of annual layers. Uncertainty in the age of the 10Be peak is, however, no better than ± 1630 y at the 95% confidence level, reflecting accumulated error in identifying annual layers. The age of the Laschamp excursion [Guillou, H., Singer, B.S., Laj, C., Kissel, C., Scaillet, S., Jicha, B., 2004. On the age of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 227, 331-343.] is revised on the basis of new 40Ar/ 39Ar, unspiked K-Ar and 238U- 230Th data from three lava flows in the Massif Central, France, together with the 40Ar/ 39Ar age of a transitionally magnetized lava flow at Auckland, New Zealand. Combined, these data yield an age of 40,700 ± 950 y b2k, where the uncertainty includes both analytical and systematic ( 40K and 230Th decay constant) errors. Taking the radioisotopic age as a calibration tie point suggests that the layer-counting chronologies for the NorthGRIP and GISP2 ice cores are more accurate and precise than previously thought at depths corresponding to the Laschamp excursion.

Noble gases in Mars atmosphere: new precise analysis with Paloma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarda, Ph.; Paloma Team

2003-04-01

The Viking mission embarked a mass spectrometer designed by Alfred O. Nier that yielded the first determination of the elemental and isotopic composition of noble gases in Mars atmosphere. For example, the 40Ar/36Ar ratio in martian air is roughly 10 fold that in terrestrial air. This extraordinary accomplishment, however, has furnished only partial results with large analytical uncertainties. For example, we do not know the isotopic composition of helium, and only very poorly that of Ne, Kr and Xe. In planetary science, it is fundamental to have a good knowledge of the atmosphere because this serves as a reference for all further studies of volatiles. In addition, part of our present knowledge of Mars atmosphere is based on the SNC meteorites, and again points to important differences between the atmospheres of Earth and Mars. For example the 129Xe/132Xe ratio of martian atmosphere would be twice that of terrestrial air and the 36Ar/38Ar ratio strongly different from the terrestrial or solar value. There is a need for confirming that the atmospheric components found in SNC meteorites actually represents the atmosphere of Mars, or to determine how different they are. Paloma is an instrument designed to generate elemental and isotopic data for He, Ne, Ar, Kr and Xe (and other gases) using a mass spectrometer with a purification and separation line. Gas purification and separation did not exist on the Vicking instrument. Because Paloma includes purification and separation, we expect strong improvement in precision. Ne, Ar and Xe isotope ratios should be obtained with an accuracy of better than 1%. Determination of the presently unknown ^3He/^4He ratio is also awaited from this experiment. Knowledge of noble gas isotopes in Mars atmosphere will allow some insight into major planetary processes such as degassing (^3He/^4He, 40Ar/36Ar, 129Xe/130Xe, 136Xe/130Xe), gravitational escape to space (^3He/^4He, 20Ne/22Ne), hydrodynamic escape and/or impact erosion of the atmosphere (20Ne/22Ne, 21Ne/22Ne, 38Ar/36Ar, Xe isotopes), input of solar wind and galactic comic rays (^3He/^4He, 20Ne/22Ne, 21Ne/22Ne). Comparison with the Earth may also shed light on long standing problems such as the large isotopic mass fractionation of the Xe isotopes and the so-called missing xenon problem. Possible variations of Kr and Xe abundances due to adsorption phenomena related to the climatic cycle will be searched for by measuring along at least one martian year.

Measurements and kinetic modeling of atomic species in fuel-oxidizer mixtures excited by a repetitive nanosecond pulse discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winters, C.; Eckert, Z.; Yin, Z.; Frederickson, K.; Adamovich, I. V.

2018-01-01

This work presents the results of number density measurements of metastable Ar atoms and ground state H atoms in diluted mixtures of H2 and O2 with Ar, as well as ground state O atoms in diluted H2-O2-Ar, CH4-O2-Ar, C3H8-O2-Ar, and C2H4-O2-Ar mixtures excited by a repetitive nanosecond pulse discharge. The measurements have been made in a nanosecond pulse, double dielectric barrier discharge plasma sustained in a flow reactor between two plane electrodes encapsulated within dielectric material, at an initial temperature of 500 K and pressures ranging from 300 Torr to 700 Torr. Metastable Ar atom number density distribution in the afterglow is measured by tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy, and used to characterize plasma uniformity. Temperature rise in the reacting flow is measured by Rayleigh scattering. H atom and O atom number densities are measured by two-photon absorption laser induced fluorescence. The results are compared with kinetic model predictions, showing good agreement, with the exception of extremely lean mixtures. O atoms and H atoms in the plasma are produced mainly during quenching of electronically excited Ar atoms generated by electron impact. In H2-Ar and O2-Ar mixtures, the atoms decay by three-body recombination. In H2-O2-Ar, CH4-O2-Ar, and C3H8-O2-Ar mixtures, O atoms decay in a reaction with OH, generated during H atom reaction with HO2, with the latter produced by three-body H atom recombination with O2. The net process of O atom decay is O  +  H  →  OH, such that the decay rate is controlled by the amount of H atoms produced in the discharge. In extra lean mixtures of propane and ethylene with O2-Ar the model underpredicts the O atom decay rate. At these conditions, when fuel is completely oxidized by the end of the discharge burst, the net process of O atom decay, O  +  O  →  O2, becomes nearly independent of H atom number density. Lack of agreement with the data at these conditions is likely due to diffusion of H atoms from the partially oxidized regions near the side walls of the reactor into the plasma. Although significant fractions of hydrogen and hydrocarbon fuels are oxidized by O atoms produced in the plasma, chain branching remains a minor effect at these relatively low temperature conditions.

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: A global synthesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, P.J.; Harrison, S.P.; Brewer, Sandra; Connor, S.; Davis, B.A.S.; Gajewski, K.; Guiot, J.; Harrison-Prentice, T. I.; Henderson, A.; Peyron, O.; Prentice, I.C.; Scholze, M.; Seppa, H.; Shuman, B.; Sugita, S.; Thompson, R.S.; Viau, A.E.; Williams, J.; Wu, H.

2011-01-01

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

Spatial variations in focused exhumation along a continental-scale strike-slip fault: The Denali fault of the eastern Alaska Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benowitz, J.A.; Layer, P.W.; Armstrong, P.; Perry, S.E.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Fitzgerald, P.G.; VanLaningham, S.

2011-01-01

40Ar/39Ar, apatite fission-track, and apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronological techniques were used to determine the Neogene exhumation history of the topographically asymmetric eastern Alaska Range. Exhumation cooling ages range from ~33 Ma to ~18 Ma for 40Ar/39Ar biotite, ~18 Ma to ~6 Ma for K-feldspar minimum closure ages, and ~15 Ma to ~1 Ma for apatite fission-track ages, and apatite (U-Th)/He cooling ages range from ~4 Ma to ~1 Ma. There has been at least ~11 km of exhumation adjacent to the north side of Denali fault during the Neogene inferred from biotite 40Ar/39Ar thermochronology. Variations in exhumation history along and across the strike of the fault are influenced by both far-field effects and local structural irregularities. We infer deformation and rapid exhumation have been occurring in the eastern Alaska Range since at least ~22 Ma most likely related to the continued collision of the Yakutat microplate with the North American plate. The Nenana Mountain region is the late Pleistocene to Holocene (~past 1 Ma) primary locus of tectonically driven exhumation in the eastern Alaska Range, possibly related to variations in fault geometry. During the Pliocene, a marked increase in climatic instability and related global cooling is temporally correlated with an increase in exhumation rates in the eastern Alaska Range north of the Denali fault system.

Androgen Receptor Variant AR-V9 Is Coexpressed with AR-V7 in Prostate Cancer Metastases and Predicts Abiraterone Resistance.

PubMed

Kohli, Manish; Ho, Yeung; Hillman, David W; Van Etten, Jamie L; Henzler, Christine; Yang, Rendong; Sperger, Jamie M; Li, Yingming; Tseng, Elizabeth; Hon, Ting; Clark, Tyson; Tan, Winston; Carlson, Rachel E; Wang, Liguo; Sicotte, Hugues; Thai, Ho; Jimenez, Rafael; Huang, Haojie; Vedell, Peter T; Eckloff, Bruce W; Quevedo, Jorge F; Pitot, Henry C; Costello, Brian A; Jen, Jin; Wieben, Eric D; Silverstein, Kevin A T; Lang, Joshua M; Wang, Liewei; Dehm, Scott M

2017-08-15

Purpose: Androgen receptor (AR) variant AR-V7 is a ligand-independent transcription factor that promotes prostate cancer resistance to AR-targeted therapies. Accordingly, efforts are under way to develop strategies for monitoring and inhibiting AR-V7 in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). The purpose of this study was to understand whether other AR variants may be coexpressed with AR-V7 and promote resistance to AR-targeted therapies. Experimental Design: We utilized complementary short- and long-read sequencing of intact AR mRNA isoforms to characterize AR expression in CRPC models. Coexpression of AR-V7 and AR-V9 mRNA in CRPC metastases and circulating tumor cells was assessed by RNA-seq and RT-PCR, respectively. Expression of AR-V9 protein in CRPC models was evaluated with polyclonal antisera. Multivariate analysis was performed to test whether AR variant mRNA expression in metastatic tissues was associated with a 12-week progression-free survival endpoint in a prospective clinical trial of 78 CRPC-stage patients initiating therapy with the androgen synthesis inhibitor, abiraterone acetate. Results: AR-V9 was frequently coexpressed with AR-V7. Both AR variant species were found to share a common 3' terminal cryptic exon, which rendered AR-V9 susceptible to experimental manipulations that were previously thought to target AR-V7 uniquely. AR-V9 promoted ligand-independent growth of prostate cancer cells. High AR-V9 mRNA expression in CRPC metastases was predictive of primary resistance to abiraterone acetate (HR = 4.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-12.2; P = 0.02). Conclusions: AR-V9 may be an important component of therapeutic resistance in CRPC. Clin Cancer Res; 23(16); 4704-15. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

The Quantum and Fluid Mechanics of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marston, Brad

2008-03-01

Quantum physics and fluid mechanics are the foundation of any understanding of the Earth's climate. In this talk I invoke three well-known aspects of quantum mechanics to explore what will happen as the concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide continue to increase. Fluid dynamical models of the Earth's atmosphere, demonstrated here in live simulations, yield further insight into past, present, and future climates. Statistics of geophysical flows can, however, be ascertained directly without recourse to numerical simulation, using concepts borrowed from nonequilibrium statistical mechanicsootnotetextJ. B. Marston, E. Conover, and Tapio Schneider, ``Statistics of an Unstable Barotropic Jet from a Cumulant Expansion,'' arXiv:0705.0011, J. Atmos. Sci. (in press).. I discuss several other ways that theoretical physics may be able to contribute to a deeper understanding of climate changeootnotetextJ. Carlson, J. Harte, G. Falkovich, J. B. Marston, and R. Pierrehumbert, ``Physics of Climate Change'' 2008 Program of the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics..

A meta-analysis of Th2 pathway genetic variants and risk for allergic rhinitis.

PubMed

Bunyavanich, Supinda; Shargorodsky, Josef; Celedón, Juan C

2011-06-01

There is a significant genetic contribution to allergic rhinitis (AR). Genetic association studies for AR have been performed, but varying results make it challenging to decipher the overall potential effect of specific variants. The Th2 pathway plays an important role in the immunological development of AR. We performed meta-analyses of genetic association studies of variants in Th2 pathway genes and AR. PubMed and Phenopedia were searched by double extraction for original studies on Th2 pathway-related genetic polymorphisms and their associations with AR. A meta-analysis was conducted on each genetic polymorphism with data meeting our predetermined selection criteria. Analyses were performed using both fixed and random effects models, with stratification by age group, ethnicity, and AR definition where appropriate. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed. Six independent studies analyzing three candidate polymorphisms and involving a total of 1596 cases and 2892 controls met our inclusion criteria. Overall, the A allele of IL13 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs20541 was associated with increased odds of AR (estimated OR=1.2; 95% CI 1.1-1.3, p-value 0.004 in fixed effects model, 95% CI 1.0-1.5, p-value 0.056 in random effects model). The A allele of rs20541 was associated with increased odds of AR in mixed age groups using both fixed effects and random effects modeling. IL13 SNP rs1800925 and IL4R SNP 1801275 did not demonstrate overall associations with AR. We conclude that there is evidence for an overall association between IL13 SNP rs20541 and increased risk of AR, especially in mixed-age populations. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Climate Change Media Forum - for Enhanced Communication between Journalists and Climate Scientists in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto-Maeda, Y.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Aoyagi-Usui, M.; Fukushi, K.; Tanaka, Y.; Fukuda, H.; Matsumoto, Y.; Asakura, A.; Hiramatsu, A.; Sumi, A.

2011-12-01

For researchers, being reported by mass media is an effective way to share their studies with others, although some have concerns that scientific results are often exaggerated by highlighting sensational parts and ignoring essential results by the media. Obviously, journalists have their own criteria of effective science reporting for their newspapers or magazines which do not necessarily conform to how researchers report their results. Climate Change Media Forum was started in 2009 by researchers specializing in climate science and communication to fill such gaps and enhance communication between climate scientists and journalists as part of a climate change research project funded by the Ministry of Environment of Japan. Since its start, forum events have been held once a year to exchange ideas on reporting of climate change science through mass media. At the first event in March, 2009, we started with learning about what actually the journalists and researchers think about media reports on climate change sciences. Using onsite questionnaire surveys, the participants (39 journalists and 31 researchers) discussed their problems on reporting climate change and what they would like to tell to the public. Some of the survey results suggested that researchers are willing to emphasize more about the conditions and assumptions of studies, while journalists would like to know more about current and short-term impacts. From the second year, two journalists joined the committee to make the events more meaningful for journalists. For the event in March, 2010, three months after COP15 in Copenhagen, the 2 degrees temperature target, which was the only written number on the Copenhagen Accord, was selected as a timely topic. Although researchers understand that a specific target is necessary for setting a concrete pathway, many of them also feel uncomfortable about selecting one single value from the temperature range with uncertainty. After two lectures on the history of the target and possible impacts by the temperature rise, the participants discussed reporting of target selected from data with uncertainty. The third forum event was held in February, 2011, on climate change projections by numerical models. After the lecture on the ongoing projects of climate change prediction for AR5 in Japan, one of the presenters at the press conference on climate change projections for AR4 in 2007 shared his own thoughts on the media reports based on the press conference. In the following session, the researchers and journalists actively discussed how the climate change projection should be reported based on their own "mission" which is conducting reliable research for scientists and writing informative articles for journalists. Through the previous three events, we have obtained sincere comments and suggestions from the participants to improve the communication between journalists and researchers. In the presentation, more comments from the discussions and the survey results of the forum events will be shared.

Alkoxyl- and carbon-centered radicals as primary agents for degrading non-phenolic lignin-substructure model compounds.

PubMed

Ohashi, Yasunori; Uno, Yukiko; Amirta, Rudianto; Watanabe, Takahito; Honda, Yoichi; Watanabe, Takashi

2011-04-07

Lignin degradation by white-rot fungi proceeds via free radical reaction catalyzed by oxidative enzymes and metabolites. Basidiomycetes called selective white-rot fungi degrade both phenolic and non-phenolic lignin substructures without penetration of extracellular enzymes into the cell wall. Extracellular lipid peroxidation has been proposed as a possible ligninolytic mechanism, and radical species degrading the recalcitrant non-phenolic lignin substructures have been discussed. Reactions between the non-phenolic lignin model compounds and radicals produced from azo compounds in air have previously been analysed, and peroxyl radical (PR) is postulated to be responsible for lignin degradation (Kapich et al., FEBS Lett., 1999, 461, 115-119). However, because the thermolysis of azo compounds in air generates both a carbon-centred radical (CR) and a peroxyl radical (PR), we re-examined the reactivity of the three radicals alkoxyl radical (AR), CR and PR towards non-phenolic monomeric and dimeric lignin model compounds. The dimeric lignin model compound is degraded by CR produced by reaction of 2,2'-azobis(2-amidinopropane) dihydrochloride (AAPH), which under N(2) atmosphere cleaves the α-β bond in 1-(4-ethoxy-3-methoxyphenyl)-2-(2-methoxyphenoxy)-1,3-propanediol to yield 4-ethoxy-3-methoxybenzaldehyde. However, it is not degraded by the PR produced by reaction of Ce(4+)/tert-BuOOH. In addition, it is degraded by AR produced by reaction of Ti(3+)/tert-BuOOH. PR and AR are generated in the presence and absence of veratryl alcohol, respectively. Rapid-flow ESR analysis of the radical species demonstrates that AR but not PR reacts with the lignin model compound. Thus, AR and CR are primary agents for the degradation of non-phenolic lignin substructures.

Astronomically calibrated 40Ar/39Ar age for the Toba supereruption and global synchronization of late Quaternary records

PubMed Central

Storey, Michael; Roberts, Richard G.; Saidin, Mokhtar

2012-01-01

The Toba supereruption in Sumatra, ∼74 thousand years (ka) ago, was the largest terrestrial volcanic event of the Quaternary. Ash and sulfate aerosols were deposited in both hemispheres, forming a time-marker horizon that can be used to synchronize late Quaternary records globally. A precise numerical age for this event has proved elusive, with dating uncertainties larger than the millennial-scale climate cycles that characterized this period. We report an astronomically calibrated 40Ar/39Ar age of 73.88 ± 0.32 ka (1σ, full external errors) for sanidine crystals extracted from Toba deposits in the Lenggong Valley, Malaysia, 350 km from the eruption source and 6 km from an archaeological site with stone artifacts buried by ash. If these artifacts were made by Homo sapiens, as has been suggested, then our age indicates that modern humans had reached Southeast Asia by ∼74 ka ago. Our 40Ar/39Ar age is an order-of-magnitude more precise than previous estimates, resolving the timing of the eruption to the middle of the cold interval between Dansgaard–Oeschger events 20 and 19, when a peak in sulfate concentration occurred as registered by Greenland ice cores. This peak is followed by a ∼10 °C drop in the Greenland surface temperature over ∼150 y, revealing the possible climatic impact of the eruption. Our 40Ar/39Ar age also provides a high-precision calibration point for other ice, marine, and terrestrial archives containing Toba sulfates and ash, facilitating their global synchronization at unprecedented resolution for a critical period in Earth and human history beyond the range of 14C dating. PMID:23112159

Astronomically calibrated 40Ar/39Ar age for the Toba supereruption and global synchronization of late Quaternary records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storey, Michael; Roberts, Richard G.; Saidin, Mokhtar

2012-11-01

The Toba supereruption in Sumatra, ∼74 thousand years (ka) ago, was the largest terrestrial volcanic event of the Quaternary. Ash and sulfate aerosols were deposited in both hemispheres, forming a time-marker horizon that can be used to synchronize late Quaternary records globally. A precise numerical age for this event has proved elusive, with dating uncertainties larger than the millennial-scale climate cycles that characterized this period. We report an astronomically calibrated 40Ar/39Ar age of 73.88 ± 0.32 ka (1σ, full external errors) for sanidine crystals extracted from Toba deposits in the Lenggong Valley, Malaysia, 350 km from the eruption source and 6 km from an archaeological site with stone artifacts buried by ash. If these artifacts were made by Homo sapiens, as has been suggested, then our age indicates that modern humans had reached Southeast Asia by ∼74 ka ago. Our 40Ar/39Ar age is an order-of-magnitude more precise than previous estimates, resolving the timing of the eruption to the middle of the cold interval between Dansgaard-Oeschger events 20 and 19, when a peak in sulfate concentration occurred as registered by Greenland ice cores. This peak is followed by a ∼10 °C drop in the Greenland surface temperature over ∼150 y, revealing the possible climatic impact of the eruption. Our 40Ar/39Ar age also provides a high-precision calibration point for other ice, marine, and terrestrial archives containing Toba sulfates and ash, facilitating their global synchronization at unprecedented resolution for a critical period in Earth and human history beyond the range of 14C dating.

Astronomically calibrated 40Ar/39Ar age for the Toba supereruption and global synchronization of late Quaternary records.

PubMed

Storey, Michael; Roberts, Richard G; Saidin, Mokhtar

2012-11-13

The Toba supereruption in Sumatra, ∼74 thousand years (ka) ago, was the largest terrestrial volcanic event of the Quaternary. Ash and sulfate aerosols were deposited in both hemispheres, forming a time-marker horizon that can be used to synchronize late Quaternary records globally. A precise numerical age for this event has proved elusive, with dating uncertainties larger than the millennial-scale climate cycles that characterized this period. We report an astronomically calibrated (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of 73.88 ± 0.32 ka (1σ, full external errors) for sanidine crystals extracted from Toba deposits in the Lenggong Valley, Malaysia, 350 km from the eruption source and 6 km from an archaeological site with stone artifacts buried by ash. If these artifacts were made by Homo sapiens, as has been suggested, then our age indicates that modern humans had reached Southeast Asia by ∼74 ka ago. Our (40)Ar/(39)Ar age is an order-of-magnitude more precise than previous estimates, resolving the timing of the eruption to the middle of the cold interval between Dansgaard-Oeschger events 20 and 19, when a peak in sulfate concentration occurred as registered by Greenland ice cores. This peak is followed by a ∼10 °C drop in the Greenland surface temperature over ∼150 y, revealing the possible climatic impact of the eruption. Our (40)Ar/(39)Ar age also provides a high-precision calibration point for other ice, marine, and terrestrial archives containing Toba sulfates and ash, facilitating their global synchronization at unprecedented resolution for a critical period in Earth and human history beyond the range of (14)C dating.

Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, T.; Murphy, C.; McCarthy, G.; Broderick, C.; Wilby, R. L.

2018-01-01

‘Super’ Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British-Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an atmospheric river (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics.

Rapid exhumation of Cretaceous arc-rocks along the Blue Mountains restraining bend of the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault, Jamaica, using thermochronometry from multiple closure systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochran, William J.; Spotila, James A.; Prince, Philip S.; McAleer, Ryan J.

2017-11-01

The effect of rapid erosion on kinematic partitioning along transpressional plate margins is not well understood, particularly in highly erosive climates. The Blue Mountains restraining bend (BMRB) of eastern Jamaica, bound to the south by the left-lateral Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault (EPGF), offers an opportunity to test the effects of highly erosive climatic conditions on a 30-km-wide restraining bend system. No previous thermochronometric data exists in Jamaica to describe the spatial or temporal pattern of rock uplift and how oblique (> 20°) plate motion is partitioned into vertical strain. To define the exhumation history, we measured apatite (n = 10) and zircon (n = 6) (U-Th)/He ages, 40Ar/39Ar (n = 2; amphibole and K-spar) ages, and U/Pb zircon (n = 2) crystallization ages. Late Cretaceous U/Pb and 40Ar/39Ar ages (74-68 Ma) indicate rapid cooling following shallow emplacement of plutons during north-south subduction along the Great Caribbean Arc. Early to middle Miocene zircon helium ages (19-14 Ma) along a vertical transect suggest exhumation and island emergence at 0.2 mm/yr. Older zircon ages 10-15 km to the north (44-35 Ma) imply less rock uplift. Apatite helium ages are young (6-1 Ma) across the entire orogen, suggesting rapid exhumation of the BMRB since the late Miocene. These constraints are consistent with previous reports of restraining bend formation and early emergence of eastern Jamaica. An age-elevation relationship from a vertical transect implies an exhumation rate of 0.8 mm/yr, while calculated closure depths and thermal modeling suggests exhumation as rapid as 2 mm/yr. The rapid rock uplift rates in Jamaica are comparable to the most intense transpressive zones worldwide, despite the relatively slow (5-7 mm/yr) strike-slip rate. We hypothesize highly erosive conditions in Jamaica enable a higher fraction of plate motion to be accommodated by vertical deformation. Thus, strike-slip restraining bends may evolve differently depending on erosivity and local climate.

Rapid exhumation of Cretaceous arc-rocks along the Blue Mountains restraining bend of the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault, Jamaica, using thermochronometry from multiple closure systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cochran, William J.; Spotila, James A.; Prince, Philip S.; McAleer, Ryan J.

2017-01-01

The effect of rapid erosion on kinematic partitioning along transpressional plate margins is not well understood, particularly in highly erosive climates. The Blue Mountains restraining bend (BMRB) of eastern Jamaica, bound to the south by the left-lateral Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault (EPGF), offers an opportunity to test the effects of highly erosive climatic conditions on a 30-km-wide restraining bend system. No previous thermochronometric data exists in Jamaica to describe the spatial or temporal pattern of rock uplift and how oblique (> 20°) plate motion is partitioned into vertical strain. To define the exhumation history, we measured apatite (n = 10) and zircon (n = 6) (U-Th)/He ages, 40Ar/39Ar (n = 2; amphibole and K-spar) ages, and U/Pb zircon (n = 2) crystallization ages. Late Cretaceous U/Pb and 40Ar/39Ar ages (74–68 Ma) indicate rapid cooling following shallow emplacement of plutons during north-south subduction along the Great Caribbean Arc. Early to middle Miocene zircon helium ages (19–14 Ma) along a vertical transect suggest exhumation and island emergence at ~ 0.2 mm/yr. Older zircon ages 10–15 km to the north (44–35 Ma) imply less rock uplift. Apatite helium ages are young (6–1 Ma) across the entire orogen, suggesting rapid exhumation of the BMRB since the late Miocene. These constraints are consistent with previous reports of restraining bend formation and early emergence of eastern Jamaica. An age-elevation relationship from a vertical transect implies an exhumation rate of 0.8 mm/yr, while calculated closure depths and thermal modeling suggests exhumation as rapid as 2 mm/yr. The rapid rock uplift rates in Jamaica are comparable to the most intense transpressive zones worldwide, despite the relatively slow (5–7 mm/yr) strike-slip rate. We hypothesize highly erosive conditions in Jamaica enable a higher fraction of plate motion to be accommodated by vertical deformation. Thus, strike-slip restraining bends may evolve differently depending on erosivity and local climate.

Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

2013-04-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on 2 small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment method with 2 different likelihood functions. One was a time-series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was a likelihood function for the flow quantiles directly. Due to the better data coverage and smaller hydrological complexity in one of our test catchments we had better performance from the hydrological model and thus could observe that the relative importance of different uncertainty sources varied between sites, boundary conditions and flow indicators. The uncertainty of future climate was important, but not dominant. The deficiencies of the hydrological model were on the same scale, especially for the sites and flow components where model performance for the past observations was further from optimal (Nash-Sutcliffe index = 0.5 - 0.7). The overall uncertainty of predictions was well beyond the expected change signal even for the best performing site and flow indicator.

A Brazilian Vulnerability Index Towards Natural Disasters and Climatic Change - Flashfloods and Landslides.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debortoli, N. S.; Camarinha, P. I., Sr.; Marengo, J. A.; Rodrigues, R.

2015-12-01

There are some evidences that hydrological climate extremes events have become more frequent an intense in the last decades due to climatic change. In Brazil, flashfloods and landslides were responsible for 74% of the deaths related to natural disasters in 1991-2010 period. In this sense, climate change could be considered a threat which can further increase these numbers, if actions of adaptation and reducing vulnerability are not taken. To evaluate Brazil's vulnerability hotspots to these disasters, two vulnerability indexes were developed using three sets of variables: (1) climate, with IPCC climate extreme indexes; (2) environmental, including land use, drainage systems, relief map, slope, road density and hydrography variables; (3) socioeconomic, including Gini coefficient, HDI (Human Development Index), housing conditions and poverty-related index. The variables were normalized on a scale between 0 to 1 and related using Map Algebra technique (ArcGIS). As part of the effort to contribute to the elaboration of the Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and to contribute to the assessment of impacts on strategic country's issues, simulations at higher resolution were carried out using Eta-20km RCM (Regional Climate Model) nested with two global climate models: HadGEM ES and MIROC 5 (INPE Brazilian National Institute for Space Research). For the baseline period of 1961-1990, the vulnerability indexes were adjusted by an iterative process, which was validated by comparing it to the Brazilian National Disasters Data. The same indexes found at baseline were used to estimate the vulnerability until the end of the XXI century, using the 4.5 and 8.5 IPCC/AR5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. The results indicate a large increase in Brazil's vulnerability to landslides mainly in coastal zone, southern states, high lands of southeast states, and along the Amazon River due to climatic aspects only, not considering other factors such as increase in population size, etc. Flashfloods vulnerability, on the other hand, increases mostly in the south/southeast regions, the northeast coastal zone and parts of the Amazon basin. Funded by: Ministry of Science and Technology of Brazil and the United Nations Development Program in Brazil.

Tropical Andean ecosystems and the need to keep warming limits below a +1.5°C threshold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Carrascal, D.; Herzog, S. K.; Guitierrez Lagoueyte, M. E.; Gonzalez-Duque, D.; Cuevas-Moreno, J.; del Valle, J. I.; Andreu-Hayles, L.; Herrera, D. A.; Martínez, R.

2017-12-01

Long-term climate change and rapid land-use change are synergistically threatening the integrity and functioning of tropical Andean ecosystems. The main goal of our research was to integrate climate change projections, biodiversity data and anthropogenically driven ecosystem disruption assessments to quantify the vulnerability of Andean ecosystems and species to global change at a local scale. We merged discernible trends in local quality-controlled weather station data with reanalysis data, as well as with historical and prospective simulation outputs of five well-known GCMs to assess a long-term context for the analysis of climate change exposure (temperature severity intervals). Individual, medium-term, multi-member GCM simulations included: altitude-corrected 2046-2065 (IPCC-AR4) climate change scenarios for the A1B emission scenario; and spatially-downscaled 2040-2069 (IPCC-AR5) projections for the RCP4.5. Previous studies reported mean annual temperature anomaly intervals that resulted in exceedingly high thresholds: the lowest severity interval (< +2.06°C) and the highest (> +2.71°C). The least severe interval extended up to the threshold widely recognized as `dangerous' climate change, thereby leading to an underestimation of the true vulnerability of Andean species. Our analyses suggest that temperature anomalies for the full extent of the tropical Andes will likely range from low (< +1.60°C) to high (> +2.61°C), exceeding the threshold of 'natural' climate variability (+1.78°C). Our results suggest that most species that were used as proxies of ecosystem vulnerabilities will likely experience overall low-to-medium-to-high temperature increases. Since many of them have potentially high sensitivity to such long-term changes, Andean species will likely experience greatly increases in vulnerability. The already-disrupted Andean ecosystems will suffer a further climatic stress, which will worsen the well-known detrimental synergies between climate and land-use changes. There is an imperative need to prioritize high-risk areas for the implementation of conservation and adaptation actions. Equally important, there is an urgent need to keep warming limits well below 2.0°C, ideally below +1.5°C, if we expect to preserve the integrity of our unique Andean environments.

Micro-scale δ18O analyses of a Borneo stalagmite across the Toba super-eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orland, I. J.; Cobb, K. M.; Carolin, S.; Linzmeier, B.; Valley, J. W.; Adkins, J. F.

2016-12-01

The Toba super-eruption occurred in close association with an abrupt climate transition from Greenland Interstadial (GI-) 20 to Greenland Stadial (GS-) 20, roughly 74 ky BP. As such, it is conceivable that the eruption played a role, whether direct or indirect, in shaping global-scale climate in the years, decades, and/or centuries that followed. Understanding the climatic response to Toba is important not only because the eruption represents an extreme atmospheric perturbation that is relevant to modeling future climate change, but also because the climate response may have slowed human population growth. Recent attempts to characterize either the regional or global climate response to Toba have been limited by a lack of age control, geographic proximity, and/or a convincing marker of the major eruption. Multiple U-Th-dated calcite stalagmites from Gunung Mulu National Park (Borneo; 4°N, 115°E) reveal a 1,000-year long period with elevated oxygen isotope values (δ18O; Carolin et al. 2013) that began abruptly and within error of the 40Ar/39Ar-dated Toba eruption (Storey et al., 2012). The δ18O shift is interpreted as a change in regional rainfall δ18O, and perhaps reflects a prolonged shift in the mean state of tropical climate. Microdrill analysis of the Mulu stalagmites showed that the abrupt onset of this period is marked by a large (>1‰) monotonic increase in δ18O. Here, we examine the structure of the abrupt δ18O increase at high-resolution in Mulu stalagmite "SC03". The WiscSIMS CAMECA IMS 1280 was used to measure δ18O in 857 spots along a 5.5 mm ( 1300 yr) linear, growth-axis traverse that is centered on the microdrilled δ18O shift. SIMS spot diameters are 6 mm in the growth dimension, 2 yr temporal resolution, with spot-to-spot δ18O reproducibility of ±0.3‰ (2 s.d.). The SIMS data reveal four δ18O excursions of ±2-3‰ over 6-10 spot intervals ( 10-20 yrs) during the 300 yr transition from GI-20 to GS-20, likely caused by fluctuations in regional hydroclimate. It is unclear whether these fluctuations coincide with the Toba eruption horizons identified in polar ice cores (Svensson et al., 2013). We assess volcanic influence on the new δ18O data by comparison to adjacent micro-scale minor and trace element profiles in order to identify the fingerprints of discrete Toba ash layers in the stalagmite.

Projected Sea Level Rise and Changes in Extreme Storm Surge and Wave Events During the 21st Century in the Region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, M. D.; Cannaby, H.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.

2016-02-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaby, H.; Palmer, M. D.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.; Calvert, D.; Krijnen, J.; Wood, R.; Tinker, J.; Bunney, C.; Harle, J.; Saulter, A.; O'Neill, C.; Bellingham, C.; Lowe, J.

2015-12-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ~ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (~ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2 year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ~ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

AR-13, a Celecoxib Derivative, Directly Kills Francisella In Vitro and Aids Clearance and Mouse Survival In Vivo

PubMed Central

Hoang, Ky V.; Adcox, Haley E.; Fitch, James R.; Gordon, David M.; Curry, Heather M.; Schlesinger, Larry S.; White, Peter; Gunn, John S.

2017-01-01

Francisella tularensis (F. tularensis) is the causative agent of tularemia and is classified as a Tier 1 select agent. No licensed vaccine is currently available in the United States and treatment of tularemia is confined to few antibiotics. In this study, we demonstrate that AR-13, a derivative of the cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor celecoxib, exhibits direct in vitro bactericidal killing activity against Francisella including a type A strain of F. tularensis (SchuS4) and the live vaccine strain (LVS), as well as toward the intracellular proliferation of LVS in macrophages, without causing significant host cell toxicity. Identification of an AR-13-resistant isolate indicates that this compound has an intracellular target(s) and that efflux pumps can mediate AR-13 resistance. In the mouse model of tularemia, AR-13 treatment protected 50% of the mice from lethal LVS infection and prolonged survival time from a lethal dose of F. tularensis SchuS4. Combination of AR-13 with a sub-optimal dose of gentamicin protected 60% of F. tularensis SchuS4-infected mice from death. Taken together, these data support the translational potential of AR-13 as a lead compound for the further development of new anti-Francisella agents. PMID:28955308

AR-13, a Celecoxib Derivative, Directly Kills Francisella In Vitro and Aids Clearance and Mouse Survival In Vivo.

PubMed

Hoang, Ky V; Adcox, Haley E; Fitch, James R; Gordon, David M; Curry, Heather M; Schlesinger, Larry S; White, Peter; Gunn, John S

2017-01-01

Francisella tularensis ( F. tularensis ) is the causative agent of tularemia and is classified as a Tier 1 select agent. No licensed vaccine is currently available in the United States and treatment of tularemia is confined to few antibiotics. In this study, we demonstrate that AR-13, a derivative of the cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor celecoxib, exhibits direct in vitro bactericidal killing activity against Francisella including a type A strain of F. tularensis (SchuS4) and the live vaccine strain (LVS), as well as toward the intracellular proliferation of LVS in macrophages, without causing significant host cell toxicity. Identification of an AR-13-resistant isolate indicates that this compound has an intracellular target(s) and that efflux pumps can mediate AR-13 resistance. In the mouse model of tularemia, AR-13 treatment protected 50% of the mice from lethal LVS infection and prolonged survival time from a lethal dose of F. tularensis SchuS4. Combination of AR-13 with a sub-optimal dose of gentamicin protected 60% of F. tularensis SchuS4-infected mice from death. Taken together, these data support the translational potential of AR-13 as a lead compound for the further development of new anti- Francisella agents.

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

Scientists' Views about Attribution of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

2015-04-01

What do scientists think? That is an important question when engaging in science communication, in which an attempt is made to communicate the scientific understanding to a lay audience. To address this question we undertook a large and detailed survey among scientists studying various aspects of climate change , dubbed "perhaps the most thorough survey of climate scientists ever" by well-known climate scientist and science communicator Gavin Schmidt. Among more than 1800 respondents we found widespread agreement that global warming is predominantly caused by human greenhouse gases. This consensus strengthens with increased expertise, as defined by the number of self-reported articles in the peer-reviewed literature. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), agreed that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of recent global warming, i.e. having contributed more than half of the observed warming. With this survey we specified what the consensus position entails with much greater specificity than previous studies. The relevance of this consensus for science communication will be discussed. Another important result from our survey is that the main attribution statement in IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4) may lead to an underestimate of the greenhouse gas contribution to warming, because it implicitly includes the lesser known masking effect of cooling aerosols. This shows the importance of the exact wording in high-profile reports such as those from IPCC in how the statement is perceived, even by fellow scientists. The phrasing was improved in the most recent assessment report (AR5). Respondents who characterized the human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. This shows that contrarian opinions are amplified in the media in relation to their prevalence in the scientific community. This is related to what is sometimes referred to as "false balance" in media reporting and may partly explain the divergence between public and scientific opinion regarding climate change.

Assessing water resources under climate change in high-altitude catchments: a methodology and an application in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aili, T.; Soncini, A.; Bianchi, A.; Diolaiuti, G.; D'Agata, C.; Bocchiola, D.

2018-01-01

Assessment of the future water resources in the Italian Alps under climate change is required, but the hydrological cycle of the high-altitude catchments therein is poorly studied and little understood. Hydrological monitoring and modeling in the Alps is difficult, given the lack of first hand, site specific data. Here, we present a method to model the hydrological cycle of poorly monitored high-altitude catchments in the Alps, and to project forward water resources availability under climate change. Our method builds on extensive experience recently and includes (i) gathering data of climate, of cryospheric variables, and of hydrological fluxes sparsely available; (ii) robust physically based glacio-hydrological modeling; and (iii) using glacio-hydrological projections from GCM models. We apply the method in the Mallero River, in the central (Retiche) Alps of Italy. The Mallero river covers 321 km2, with altitude between 310 and 4015 m a.s.l., and it has 27 km2 of ice cover. The glaciers included in the catchment underwent large mass loss recently, thus Mallero is largely paradigmatic of the present situation of Alpine rivers. We set up a spatially explicit glacio-hydrological model, describing the cryospheric evolution and the hydrology of the area during a control run CR, from 1981 to 2007. We then gather climate projections until 2100 from three Global Climate Models of the IPCC AR5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. We project forward flow statistics, flow components (rainfall, snow melt, ice melt), ice cover, and volume for two reference decades, namely 2045-2054 and 2090-2099. We foresee reduction of the ice bodies from - 62 to - 98% in volume (year 2100 vs year 1981), and subsequent large reduction of ice melt contribution to stream flows (from - 61 to - 88%, 2100 vs CR). Snow melt, now covering 47% of the stream flows yearly, would also be largely reduced (from - 19 to - 56%, 2100 vs CR). The stream flows will decrease on average at 2100 (from + 1 to - 25%, with - 7%), with potential for increased flows during fall, and winter, and large decrease in summer. Our results provide a tool for consistent modeling of the cryospheric, and hydrologic behavior, and can be used for further investigation of the high-altitude catchments in the Alps.

Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO During DYNAMO

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-03

with two complementary atmosphere-only simulations with modified SST conditions. One WRF simulation is forced with the persistent initial SST, lacking...we have contributed to the following subset of accomplishments of the muhi-institutional team: a. Run SC0AR2 ( WRF -ROMS) in downscaling mode for the 2...Regional (SCOAR) Model Seo et al. (2007; 2014, J. Climate), http://scoar.wlklspaces.cotn p^ WRF /RSM C^ ROMS {j^TWo-way coupling ^ One

BMP4 and BMP7 Suppress StAR and Progesterone Production via ALK3 and SMAD1/5/8-SMAD4 in Human Granulosa-Lutein Cells.

PubMed

Zhang, Han; Klausen, Christian; Zhu, Hua; Chang, Hsun-Ming; Leung, Peter C K

2015-11-01

Adequate production of progesterone by the corpus luteum is critical to the successful establishment of pregnancy. In animal models, bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) 4 and BMP7 have been shown to suppress either basal or gonadotropin-induced progesterone production, depending on the species examined. However, the effects of BMP4 and BMP7 on progesterone production in human granulosa cells are unknown. In the present study, we used immortalized (SVOG) and primary human granulosa-lutein cells to investigate the effects of BMP4 and BMP7 on steroidogenic acute regulatory protein (StAR) expression and progesterone production and to examine the underlying molecular mechanism. Treatment of primary and immortalized human granulosa cells with recombinant BMP4 or BMP7 decreased StAR expression and progesterone accumulation. In SVOG cells, the suppressive effects of BMP4 and BMP7 on StAR expression were blocked by pretreatment with inhibitors of activin receptor-like kinase (ALK)2/3/6 (dorsomorphin) or ALK2/3 (DMH1) but not ALK4/5/7 (SB-431542). Moreover, small interfering RNA-mediated depletion of ALK3, but not ALK2 or ALK6, reversed the effects of BMP4 and BMP7 on StAR expression. Likewise, BMP4- and BMP7-induced phosphorylation of SMAD 1/5/8 was reversed by treatment with DMH1 or small interfering RNA targeting ALK3. Knockdown of SMAD4, the essential common SMAD for BMP/TGF-β signaling, abolished the effects of BMP4 and BMP7 on StAR expression. Our results suggest that BMP4 and BMP7 down-regulate StAR and progesterone production via ALK3 and SMAD1/5/8-SMAD4 signaling in human granulosa-lutein cells.

Climate Change Projection for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2014-12-01

As per recent Department of Energy (DOE) sustainability requirements, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a climate projection for the DOE's Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, SC. This will comprise data from both a statistical and a dynamic downscaling process, each interpolated to the SRS. We require variables most relevant to operational activities at the site (such as the US Forest Service's forest management program), and select temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity as being most relevant to energy and water resource requirements, fire and forest ecology, and facility and worker safety. We then develop projections of the means and extremes of these variables, estimate the effect on site operations, and develop long-term mitigation strategies. For example, given that outdoor work while wearing protective gear is a daily facet of site operations, heat stress is of primary importance to work planning, and we use the downscaled data to estimate changes in the occurrence of high temperatures. For the statistical downscaling, we use global climate model (GCM) data from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP-5), which was used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). GCM data from five research groups was selected, and two climate change scenarios - RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 - are used with observed data from site instruments and other databases to produce the downscaled projections. We apply a quantile regression downscaling method, which involves the use of the observed cumulative distribution function to correct that of the GCM. This produces a downscaled projection with an interannual variability closer to that of the observed data and allows for more extreme values in the projections, which are often absent in GCM data. The statistically downscaled data is complemented with dynamically downscaled data from the NARCCAP database, which comprises output from regional climate models forced with GCM output from the CMIP-3 database of GCM simulations. Applications of the downscaled climate projections to some of the unique operational needs of a large DOE weapons complex site are described.

Hot climate inhibits volcanism on Venus: Constraints from rock deformation experiments and argon isotope geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhail, Sami; Heap, Michael J.

2017-07-01

The disparate evolution of sibling planets Earth and Venus has left them markedly different. Venus' hot (460 °C) surface is dry and has a hypsometry with a very low standard deviation, whereas Earth's average temperature is 4 °C and the surface is wet and has a pronounced bimodal hypsometry. Counterintuitively, despite the hot Venusian climate, the rate of intraplate volcano formation is an order of magnitude lower than that of Earth. Here we compile and analyse rock deformation and atmospheric argon isotope data to offer an explanation for the relative contrast in volcanic flux between Earth and Venus. By collating high-temperature, high-pressure rock deformation data for basalt, we provide a failure mechanism map to assess the depth of the brittle-ductile transition (BDT). These data suggest that the Venusian BDT likely exists between 2 and 12 km depth (for a range of thermal gradients), in stark contrast to the BDT for Earth, which we find to be at a depth of ∼25-27 km using the same method. The implications for planetary evolution are twofold. First, downflexing and sagging will result in the sinking of high-relief structures, due to the low flexural rigidity of the predominantly ductile Venusian crust, offering an explanation for the curious coronae features on the Venusian surface. Second, magma delivery to the surface-the most efficient mechanism for which is flow along fractures (dykes; i.e., brittle deformation)-will be inhibited on Venus. Instead, we infer that magmas must stall and pond in the ductile Venusian crust. If true, a greater proportion of magmatism on Venus should result in intrusion rather than extrusion, relative to Earth. This predicted lower volcanic flux on Venus, relative to Earth, is supported by atmospheric argon isotope data: we argue here that the anomalously unradiogenic present-day atmospheric 40Ar/36Ar ratio for Venus (compared with Earth) must reflect major differences in 40Ar degassing, primarily driven by volcanism. Indeed, these argon data suggest that the volcanic flux on Venus has been three times lower than that on Earth over its 4.56 billion year history. We conclude that Venus' hot climate inhibits volcanism.

A Quaternary Geomagnetic Instability Time Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, B. S.

2013-12-01

Reversals and excursions of Earth's geomagnetic field create marker horizons that are readily detected in sedimentary and volcanic rocks worldwide. An accurate and precise chronology of these geomagnetic field instabilities is fundamental to understanding several aspects of Quaternary climate, dynamo processes, and surface processes. For example, stratigraphic correlation between marine sediment and polar ice records of climate change across the cryospheres benefits from a highly resolved record of reversals and excursions. The temporal patterns of dynamo behavior may reflect physical interactions between the molten outer core and the solid inner core or lowermost mantle. These interactions may control reversal frequency and shape the weak magnetic fields that arise during successive dynamo instabilities. Moreover, weakening of the axial dipole during reversals and excursions enhances the production of cosmogenic isotopes that are used in sediment and ice core stratigraphy and surface exposure dating. The Geomagnetic Instability Time Scale (GITS) is based on the direct dating of transitional polarity states recorded by lava flows using the 40Ar/39Ar method, in parallel with astrochronologic age models of marine sediments in which O isotope and magnetic records have been obtained. A review of data from Quaternary lava flows and sediments yields a GITS comprising 10 polarity reversals and 27 excursions during the past 2.6 million years. Nine of the ten reversals bounding chrons and subchrons are associated with 40Ar/39Ar ages of transitionally-magnetized lava flows. The tenth, the Guass-Matuyama chron boundary, is tightly bracketed by 40Ar/39Ar dated ash deposits. Of the 27 well-documented excursions, 14 occurred during the Matuyama chron and 13 during the Brunhes chron; 19 have been dated directly using the 40Ar/39Ar method on transitionally-magnetized volcanic rocks and form the backbone of the GITS. Excursions are clearly not the rare phenomena once thought. Rather, during the Quaternary period, they occur nearly three times as often as full polarity reversals. I will address analytical issues, including the size and consistency of system blanks, that have led to the recognition of minor (1%) discrepencies between the 40Ar/39Ar age for a particular reversal or excursion and the best astrochronologic estimates from ODP sediment cores. For example, re-analysis of lava flows from Haleakala volcano, Maui that record in detail the Matuyama-Brunhes polarity reversal have been undertaken with blanks an order of magntitude smaller and more stable than was common a decade ago. Using the modern astrochronologic calibration of 28.201 Ma for the age of the Fish Canyon sanidine standard, results thus far yield an 40Ar/39Ar age of 772 × 11 ka for the reversal that is identical to the most precise and accurate astrochronologic age of 773 × 2 ka for this reversal from ODP cores. Similarly, new dating of sanidine in the Cerro Santa Rosa I rhyolite dome, New Mexico reveals an age of 932 × 5 ka for the excursion it records, in perfect agreement with astrochronologically dated ODP core records. Work underway aims at refining the 40Ar/39Ar ages that underpin the entire GITS by further eliminating the bias between the radioisotopic and astrochronologically determined ages for several reversals and excursions.

Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

2015-05-01

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

2009-04-01

The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2011-06-01

Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

Dust and Erosion Control Methods for US Army Construction Projects in Honduras

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

sano TomT&S *15 14t Ar,,&Ws A.1 141 SanS5 Ivotor 1"M aLa IA. ,.. s-. 8t YOU LA~, Coo O / A 17 I1 (a de Guana~aISLAS SAWrANILLA 30,I i3 2 5...parte del ano; prornedlo de ’H nori above 18’C, temperatura del mes nias fresco, arriba de .ainf c ilTROPICAL WET AND DRY CLIMATE-Dis. CLIMA TROPICAL...temperature del mes mas te :3 tefresco arriba do 18~’C. b1 abH mo [4 WARM TEMPERATE CLIMATE-Winter dry; CL ’MA TEMPLADO HUMEDO-Invierno seco; at least

Gas discharges from the Kueishantao hydrothermal vents, offshore northeast Taiwan: Implications for drastic variations of magmatic/hydrothermal activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xue-Gang; Lyu, Shuang-Shuang; Zhang, Ping-Ping; Yu, Ming-Zhen; Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Chen, Yun-Jie; Li, Xiaohu; Jin, Aimin; Zhang, Hai-Yan; Duan, Wei; Ye, Ying

2018-03-01

The chemical compositions of gas discharges from the Kueishantao (KST) hydrothermal field changed dramatically from 2000 to 2014. In this study, we established a gas mixing model for the KST gases. The N2, Ar, and CO2 contents were mixed from a magmatic endmember with CO2 of about 990 mmol/mol, a hydrothermal and an atmospheric endmember enriched in N2 and Ar. More than 71% KST gas components were mantle-derived/magmatic. The calculated endmember N2/Ar ratio and Ar contents of the hydrothermal endmember (percolated fluid) are about 140 and 5.28-5.52 mmol/mol, respectively. This relatively elevated N2/Ar ratio was probably caused by the thermogenic addition of N2. The log(CH4/CO2) values of the KST gas samples correlate well with the mixing temperature that estimated from the mixing ratio between the percolated fluid and the magmatic endmember. It is indicated that the KST CH4 and CO2 may have attained chemical equilibrium. The temporal variations of the KST gas compositions are determined by the mixing ratio, which is dependent on the magmatic activity underneath the KST field. With the decreasing of magmatic activity since 2005, the proportion of the hydrothermal endmember increased, along with the increasing of N2, Ar, and CH4 contents. This study proposed an effective model to quantitatively assess the sources of gas components discharged from submarine hydrothermal vents. In addition, it is suggested that the mixing between a magmatic and a hydrothermal endmember may play an important role in the concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in hydrothermal gas discharges.

Estimating Amazonian rainforest stability and the likelihood for large-scale forest dieback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Jupp, Tim; Ostberg, Sebastian; Heinke, Jens; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

2010-05-01

Annually, tropical forests process approximately 18 Pg of carbon through respiration and photosynthesis - more than twice the rate of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions. Current climate change may be transforming this carbon sink into a carbon source by changing forest structure and dynamics. Increasing temperatures and potentially decreasing precipitation and thus prolonged drought stress may lead to increasing physiological stress and reduced productivity for trees. Resulting decreases in evapotranspiration and therefore convective precipitation could further accelerate drought conditions and destabilize the tropical ecosystem as a whole and lead to an 'Amazon forest dieback'. The projected direction and intensity of climate change vary widely within the region and between different scenarios from climate models (GCMs). In the scope of a World Bank-funded study, we assessed the 24 General Circulation Models (GCMs) evaluated in the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) with respect to their capability to reproduce present-day climate in the Amazon basin using a Bayesian approach. With this approach, greater weight is assigned to the models that simulate well the annual cycle of rainfall. We then use the resulting weightings to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes as simulated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJmL) to estimate the risk of potential Amazon rainforest dieback. Our results show contrasting changes in forest biomass throughout five regions of northern South America: If photosynthetic capacity and water use efficiency is enhanced by CO2, biomass increases across all five regions. However, if CO2-fertilisation is assumed to be absent or less important, then substantial dieback occurs in some scenarios and thus, the risk of forest dieback is considerably higher. Particularly affected are regions in the central Amazon basin. The range of potential biomass change arising from the weighting of rainfall patterns is smaller than the uncertainty arising from CO2-fertilisation effects, which highlights the importance of reducing the uncertainties in the direct effects of CO2 on tropical ecosystems. Strong biomass changes also imply changes in forest structure and thus, forest stability. Our results display shifts in forest composition from closed rainforest to more open forest or even shrubland. Our probability-based risk analysis could be used to advise regional forest protection.

Population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of ticagrelor and AR-C124910XX in Chinese healthy male subjects.

PubMed

Liu, Shuaibing; Xue, Ling; Shi, Xiangfen; Sun, Zhiyong; Zhu, Zhenfeng; Zhang, Xiaojian; Tian, Xin

2018-06-01

Ticagrelor, the first reversible P2Y 12 receptor antagonist, exhibits faster onset and offset of antiplatelet effects and more consistent platelet inhibition than clopidogrel in both healthy subjects and patients with stable coronary artery disease. The objectives of this study were to establish a population pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) model of ticagrelor and to provide a theoretical basis for the optimization of ticagrelor treatment in clinic. A single oral dose of 180 mg ticagrelor was administered to 14 healthy male subjects in a randomized study. Common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in biotransformation enzymes CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 (CYP3A4*1G and CYP3A5*3) were genotyped by PCR-direct sequencing. Blood samples were collected to measure plasma concentrations of ticagrelor and its active metabolite AR-C124910XX and maximal platelet inhibition. Various models were evaluated to characterize the pharmacokinetics of ticagrelor and AR-C124910XX as well as their PK-PD relationship. Covariates that may potentially affect PK or PD of ticagrelor and AR-C124910XX were included and assessed. Simulation for dosage regimen was performed based on the final PK-PD model. Ticagrelor and AR-C124910XX PK were best described by a two-compartment model with first-order transit absorption model. CYP3A4*1G increased clearance for AR-C124910XX, but had no significant effect on ticagrelor clearance. The relationship between concentration and platelet response of ticagrelor was best described by a turnover model. Simulation results indicated that a lower dosage regimen of 30 mg maintenance dose (MD) could produce an anticipated anti-platelet response in comparison to the routine clinical dosage regimen (180 mg loading dose (LD), 90 mg MD). Our study developed a population PK-PD model for ticagrelor and further simulation for dosage regimen was performed based on the final model. Compared to the current recommended dosage regimen (180 mg LD, 90 mg MD), our simulation result of a relatively lower dose (30 mg MD) could also obtain an acceptable anti-platelet response, which may provide a reference for further dosage regimen design in Chinese population.

Arf6 negatively controls the rapid recycling of the β2 adrenergic receptor.

PubMed

Macia, Eric; Partisani, Mariagrazia; Paleotti, Olivia; Luton, Frederic; Franco, Michel

2012-09-01

β2-adrenergic receptor (β2AR), a member of the GPCR (G-protein coupled receptor) family, is internalized in a ligand- and β-arrestin-dependent manner into early endosomes, and subsequently recycled back to the plasma membrane. Here, we report that β-arrestin promotes the activation of the small G protein Arf6, which regulates the recycling and degradation of β2AR. We demonstrate in vitro that the C-terminal region of β-arrestin1 interacts directly and simultaneously with Arf6GDP and its specific exchange factor EFA6, to promote Arf6 activation. Similarly, the ligand-mediated activation of β2AR leads to the formation of Arf6GTP in vivo in a β-arrestin-dependent manner. Expression of either EFA6 or an activated Arf6 mutant caused accumulation of β2AR in the degradation pathway. This phenotype could be rescued by the expression of an activated mutant of Rab4, suggesting that Arf6 acts upstream of Rab4. We propose a model in which Arf6 plays an essential role in β2AR desensitization. The ligand-mediated stimulation of β2AR relocates β-arrestin to the plasma membrane, and triggers the activation of Arf6 by EFA6. The activation of Arf6 leads to accumulation of β2AR in the degradation pathway, and negatively controls Rab4-dependent fast recycling to prevent the re-sensitization of β2AR.

KDM4B and KDM4A promote endometrial cancer progression by regulating androgen receptor, c-myc, and p27kip1

PubMed Central

Kwan, Suet-Ying; Chen, Limo; Chen, Jin-Hong; Ying, Zuo-Lin; Zhou, Ye; Gu, Wei; Wang, Li-Hua; Cheng, Wei-Wei; Zeng, Jianfang; Wan, Xiao-Ping; Mok, Samuel C.; Wong, Kwong-Kwok; Bao, Wei

2015-01-01

Epidemiological evidence suggests that elevated androgen levels and genetic variation related to the androgen receptor (AR) increase the risk of endometrial cancer (EC). However, the role of AR in EC is poorly understood. We report that two members of the histone demethylase KDM4 family act as major regulators of AR transcriptional activityin EC. In the MFE-296 cell line, KDM4B and AR upregulate c-myc expression, while in AN3CA cells KDM4A and AR downregulate p27kip1. Additionally, KDM4B expression is positively correlated with AR expression in EC cell lines with high baseline AR expression, while KDM4A and AR expression are positively correlated in low-AR cell lines. In clinical specimens, both KDM4B and KDM4A expression are significantly higher in EC tissues than that in normal endometrium. Finally, patients with alterations in AR, KDM4B, KDM4A, and c-myc have poor overall and disease-free survival rates. Together, these findings demonstrate that KDM4B and KDM4A promote EC progression by regulating AR activity. PMID:26397136

Ligand induced change of β2 adrenergic receptor from active to inactive conformation and its implication for the closed/open state of the water channel: insight from molecular dynamics simulation, free energy calculation and Markov state model analysis.

PubMed

Bai, Qifeng; Pérez-Sánchez, Horacio; Zhang, Yang; Shao, Yonghua; Shi, Danfeng; Liu, Huanxiang; Yao, Xiaojun

2014-08-14

The reported crystal structures of β2 adrenergic receptor (β2AR) reveal that the open and closed states of the water channel are correlated with the inactive and active conformations of β2AR. However, more details about the process by which the water channel states are affected by the active to inactive conformational change of β2AR remain illusive. In this work, molecular dynamics simulations are performed to study the dynamical inactive and active conformational change of β2AR induced by inverse agonist ICI 118,551. Markov state model analysis and free energy calculation are employed to explore the open and close states of the water channel. The simulation results show that inverse agonist ICI 118,551 can induce water channel opening during the conformational transition of β2AR. Markov state model (MSM) analysis proves that the energy contour can be divided into seven states. States S1, S2 and S5, which represent the active conformation of β2AR, show that the water channel is in the closed state, while states S4 and S6, which correspond to the intermediate state conformation of β2AR, indicate the water channel opens gradually. State S7, which represents the inactive structure of β2AR, corresponds to the full open state of the water channel. The opening mechanism of the water channel is involved in the ligand-induced conformational change of β2AR. These results can provide useful information for understanding the opening mechanism of the water channel and will be useful for the rational design of potent inverse agonists of β2AR.

Neuroprotection by caffeine in the MPTP model of parkinson's disease and its dependence on adenosine A2A receptors.

PubMed

Xu, K; Di Luca, D G; Orrú, M; Xu, Y; Chen, J-F; Schwarzschild, M A

2016-05-13

Considerable epidemiological and laboratory data have suggested that caffeine, a nonselective adenosine receptor antagonist, may protect against the underlying neurodegeneration of parkinson's disease (PD). Although both caffeine and more specific antagonists of the A2A subtype of adenosine receptor (A2AR) have been found to confer protection in animal models of PD, the dependence of caffeine's neuroprotective effects on the A2AR is not known. To definitively determine its A2AR dependence, the effect of caffeine on 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6 tetra-hydropyridine (MPTP) neurotoxicity was compared in wild-type (WT) and A2AR gene global knockout (A2A KO) mice, as well as in central nervous system (CNS) cell type-specific (conditional) A2AR knockout (cKO) mice that lack the receptor either in postnatal forebrain neurons or in astrocytes. In WT and in heterozygous A2AR KO mice caffeine pretreatment (25mg/kgip) significantly attenuated MPTP-induced depletion of striatal dopamine. By contrast in homozygous A2AR global KO mice caffeine had no effect on MPTP toxicity. In forebrain neuron A2AR cKO mice, caffeine lost its locomotor stimulant effect, whereas its neuroprotective effect was mostly preserved. In astrocytic A2AR cKO mice, both caffeine's locomotor stimulant and protective properties were undiminished. Taken together, these results indicate that neuroprotection by caffeine in the MPTP model of PD relies on the A2AR, although the specific cellular localization of these receptors remains to be determined. Copyright © 2016 IBRO. All rights reserved.

Effects of elliptical burner geometry on partially premixed gas jet flames in quiescent surroundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baird, Benjamin

This study is the investigation of the effect of elliptical nozzle burner geometry and partial premixing, both 'passive control' methods, on a hydrogen/hydrocarbon flame. Both laminar and turbulent flames for circular, 3:1, and 4:1 aspect ratio (AR) elliptical burners are considered. The amount of air mixed with the fuel is varied from fuel-lean premixed flames to fuel-rich partially premixed flames. The work includes measurements of flame stability, global pollutant emissions, flame radiation, and flame structure for the differing burner types and fuel conditions. Special emphasis is placed on the near-burner region. Experimentally, both conventional (IR absorption, chemiluminecent, and polarographic emission analysis,) and advanced (laser induced fluorescence, planar laser induced fluorescence, Laser Doppler Velocimetry (LDV), Rayleigh scattering) diagnostic techniques are used. Numerically, simulations of 3-dimensional laminar and turbulent reacting flow are conducted. These simulations are run with reduced chemical kinetics and with a Reynolds Stress Model (RSM) for the turbulence modeling. It was found that the laminar flames were similar in appearance and overall flame length for the 3:1 AR elliptical and the circular burner. The laminar 4:1 AR elliptical burner flame split into two sub-flames along the burner major axis. This splitting had the effect of greatly shortening the 4:1 AR elliptical burner flame to have an overall flame length about half of that of the circular and 3:1 AR elliptical burner flames. The length of all three burners flames increased with increasing burner exit equivalence ratio. The blowout velocity for the three burners increased with increase in hydrogen mass fraction of the hydrogen/propane fuel mixture. For the rich premixed flames, the circular burner was the most stable, the 3:1 AR elliptical burner, was the least stable, and the 4:1 AR elliptical burner was intermediate to the two other burners. This order of stability was due to two reasons. The elliptical burners have enhanced turbulence generation that lowers their stability when compared to the circular burner. The 4:1 AR elliptical burner had greater stability due to a greater velocity decay rate and wider OH reaction zones particularly in the region between the two jets. The 3:1 AR elliptical and circular burners produced similar carbon monoxide and nitric oxide emission indexes over the range of equivalence ratios of 0.55 to 4.0, for laminar flames. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Hybrid simulation of electron energy distributions and plasma characteristics in pulsed RF CCP sustained in Ar and SiH4/Ar discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xi-Feng; Jia, Wen-Zhu; Song, Yuan-Hong; Zhang, Ying-Ying; Dai, Zhong-Ling; Wang, You-Nian

2017-11-01

Pulsed-discharge plasmas offer great advantages in deposition of silicon-based films due to the fact that they can suppress cluster agglomeration, moderate the energy of bombarding ions, and prolong the species' diffusion time on the substrate. In this work, a one-dimensional fluid/Monte-Carlo hybrid model is applied to study pulse modulated radio-frequency (RF) plasmas sustained in capacitively coupled Ar and SiH4/Ar discharges. First, the electron energy distributions in pulsed Ar and SiH4/Ar plasmas have been investigated and compared under identical discharge-circuit conditions. The electron energy distribution function (EEDF) in Ar discharge exhibits a familiar bi-Maxwellian shape during the power-on phase of the pulse, while a more complex (resembling a multi-Maxwellian) distribution with extra inflection points at lower energies is observed in the case of the SiH4/Ar mixture. These features become more prominent with the increasing fraction of SiH4 in the gas mixture. The difference in the shape of the EEDF (which is pronounced inside the plasma but not in the RF sheath where electron heating occurs) is mainly attributed to the electron-impact excitations of SiH4. During the power-off phase of the pulse, the EEDFs in both Ar and SiH4/Ar discharges evolve into bi-Maxwellian shapes, with shrinking high energy tails. Furthermore, the parameter of ion species in the case of SiH4/Ar discharge is strongly modulated by pulsing. For positive ions, such as SiH3+ and Si2H4+ , the particle fluxes overshoot at the beginning of the power-on interval. Meanwhile, for negative ions such as SiH2- and SiH3- , density profiles observed between the electrodes are saddle-shaped due to the repulsion by the self-bias electric field as it builds up. During the power-off phase, the wall fluxes of SiH2- and SiH3- gradually increase, leading to a significant decrease in the net surface charge density on the driven electrode. Compared with ions, the density of SiH3 is poorly modulated by pulsed power and is nearly constant over the entire modulation period, but the density of SiH2 shows a detectable decline in the afterglow. However, because of a much smaller content of SiH2, the deposition rate hardly shows any variation under the selected waveform of the pulse.

Constructing optimal ensemble projections for predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisimov, Oleg; Kokorev, Vasily

2013-04-01

Large uncertainties in climate impact modelling are associated with the forcing climate data. This study is targeted at the evaluation of the quality of GCM-based climatic projections in the specific context of predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia. To accomplish this task, we used the output from 36 CMIP5 GCMs from the IPCC AR-5 data base for the control period 1975-2005 and calculated several climatic characteristics and indexes that are most often used in the impact models, i.e. the summer warmth index, duration of the vegetation growth period, precipitation sums, dryness index, thawing degree-day sums, and the annual temperature amplitude. We used data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighbouring countries to analyze the spatial patterns of modern climatic change and to delineate 17 large regions with coherent temperature changes in the past few decades. GSM results and observational data were averaged over the coherent regions and compared with each other. Ultimately, we evaluated the skills of individual models, ranked them in the context of regional impact modelling and identified top-end GCMs that "better than average" reproduce modern regional changes of the selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes. Selected top-end GCMs were used to compose several ensembles, each combining results from the different number of models. Ensembles were ranked using the same algorithm and outliers eliminated. We then used data from top-end ensembles for the 2000-2100 period to construct the climatic projections that are likely to be "better than average" in predicting climatic parameters that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia. The ultimate conclusions of our study are the following. • High-end GCMs that demonstrate excellent skills in conventional atmospheric model intercomparison experiments are not necessarily the best in replicating climatic characteristics that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia, and independent model evaluation on regional level is necessary to identify "better than average" GCMs. • Each of the ensembles combining results from several "better than average" models replicate selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes better than any single GCM. The ensemble skills are parameter-specific and depend on models it consists of. The best results are not necessarily those based on the ensemble comprised by all "better than average" models. • Comprehensive evaluation of climatic scenarios using specific criteria narrows the range of uncertainties in environmental projections.

The Celecoxib Derivative AR-12 Has Broad-Spectrum Antifungal Activity In Vitro and Improves the Activity of Fluconazole in a Murine Model of Cryptococcosis

PubMed Central

Koselny, Kristy; Green, Julianne; DiDone, Louis; Halterman, Justin P.; Fothergill, Annette W.; Wiederhold, Nathan P.; Patterson, Thomas F.; Cushion, Melanie T.; Rappelye, Chad; Wellington, Melanie

2016-01-01

Only one new class of antifungal drugs has been introduced into clinical practice in the last 30 years, and thus the identification of small molecules with novel mechanisms of action is an important goal of current anti-infective research. Here, we describe the characterization of the spectrum of in vitro activity and in vivo activity of AR-12, a celecoxib derivative which has been tested in a phase I clinical trial as an anticancer agent. AR-12 inhibits fungal acetyl coenzyme A (acetyl-CoA) synthetase in vitro and is fungicidal at concentrations similar to those achieved in human plasma. AR-12 has a broad spectrum of activity, including activity against yeasts (e.g., Candida albicans, non-albicans Candida spp., Cryptococcus neoformans), molds (e.g., Fusarium, Mucor), and dimorphic fungi (Blastomyces, Histoplasma, and Coccidioides) with MICs of 2 to 4 μg/ml. AR-12 is also active against azole- and echinocandin-resistant Candida isolates, and subinhibitory AR-12 concentrations increase the susceptibility of fluconazole- and echinocandin-resistant Candida isolates. Finally, AR-12 also increases the activity of fluconazole in a murine model of cryptococcosis. Taken together, these data indicate that AR-12 represents a promising class of small molecules with broad-spectrum antifungal activity. PMID:27645246

Using tephra layers as absolute and relative chronological markers: an example from Lake Suigetsu, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, V.; Albert, P. G.; Staff, R.; Mark, D. F.; Bronk Ramsey, C.; Nakagawa, T.

2014-12-01

The Lake Suigetsu cores (SG06 and SG14) from Honshu Island, central Japan, provide a high-resolution paleoenvironmental record for the last ~200 kyrs. The composite record is ~85 m-long and it contains numerous tephras, more than 35 visible and numerous non-visible layers (cryptotephra). The major and trace element glass chemistry of these tephras allows the layers to be correlated to specific eruptions and tephra layers in other archives [1]. The record preserves large eruptions from volcanoes from Kyushu, Honshu, South Korea, and smaller explosive events from more proximal volcanoes, Daisen and Sanbe. The Lake Suigetsu has a very detailed varve and radiocarbon chronology [2] that has been exploited to provide precise ages for the tephra layers from the last 50 kyrs [1]. These ages can constrain the tempo of volcanic activity, and the age models of other sedimentary (paleoenvironmental and archaeological) records that contain the tephra. The deeper parts of the Suigetsu core are not continuosly annually laminated and are outside the radiocarbon timeframe and therefore do not have a well constrined chronology. The tephra layers can be used to provide an absolute chronology as eruption deposits from South Korea, Daisen and Sanbe often contain K-rich crystal phases, which can be dated using 40Ar/39Ar methods. Correlating these distal tephra layers in Lake Suigetsu to proximal deposits, using the glass chemistry, is essential as large crystals are required to obtain precise 40Ar/39Ar ages and these are only abundant in the coarser proximal deposits [3, 4]. These widespread marker layers can be also be used for relative chronology. Identifying the same tephras in disparate high-resolution archives allows them to be directly compared so that leads and lags in paleoclimate can be identified on the regional to continental scale, providing some insight into the fundamental drivers of the Earth's climate system. References: [1] Smith et al. (2013) Quaternary Science Reviews 67, 121-137. [2] Bronk Ramsey et al. (2012) Science 338, 370-374. [3] Smith et al. (2011) Quaternary Science Reviews 30, 2845-2850. [4] Mark et al. (2014) Quaternary Geochronology 21, 90-103.

The challenge of documenting water quality benefits of conservation practices: a review of USDA-ARS's conservation effects assessment project watershed studies.

PubMed

Tomer, M D; Locke, M A

2011-01-01

The Conservation Effects Assessment Project was established to quantify water quality benefits of conservation practices supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). In 2004, watershed assessment studies were begun in fourteen agricultural watersheds with varying cropping systems, landscapes, climate, and water quality concerns. This paper reviews USDA Agricultural Research Service 'Benchmark' watershed studies and the challenge of identifying water quality benefits in watersheds. Study goals included modeling and field research to assess practices, and evaluation of practice placement in watersheds. Not all goals were met within five years but important lessons were learned. While practices improved water quality, problems persisted in larger watersheds. This dissociation between practice-focused and watershed-scale assessments occurred because: (1) Conservation practices were not targeted at critical sources/pathways of contaminants; (2) Sediment in streams originated more from channel and bank erosion than from soil erosion; (3) Timing lags, historical legacies, and shifting climate combined to mask effects of practice implementation; and (4) Water quality management strategies addressed single contaminants with little regard for trade-offs among contaminants. These lessons could help improve conservation strategies and set water quality goals with realistic timelines. Continued research on agricultural water quality could better integrate modeling and monitoring capabilities, and address ecosystem services.

Some Good Practices for Integration and Outreach and their Implementation in the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) and its associated web portal CLIMASCOPE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R. F.; Price, J. T.; Goswami, S.

2010-12-01

Successful communication of knowledge to climate change policy makers requires the careful integration of scientific knowledge in an integrated assessment that can be clearly communicated to stakeholders, and which encapsulates the uncertainties in the analysis and conveys the need for using a risk assessment approach. It is important that (i) the system is co-designed with the users (ii) relevant disciplines are included (iii) assumptions made are clear (iv) the robustness of outputs to uncertainties is demonstrated (v) the system is flexible so that it can keep up with changing stakeholder needs and (vi) the results are communicated clearly and are readily accessible. The “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS) is a unique multi-institutional, modular, and flexible integrated assessment system for modeling climate change which fulfils the above six criteria. It differs from other integrated models in being a flexible system allowing various combinations of component modules, to be connected together into alternative integrated assessment models. These modules may be written at different institutions in different computer languages and/or based on different operating systems. Scientists are able determine which particular CIAS coupled model they wish to use through a web portal. This includes the facility to implement Latin hypercube experimental design facilitating formal uncertainty analysis. Further exploration of robustness is possible through the ability to select, for example, alternative hyrdrological or climate models to address the same questions. It has been applied to study future scenarios of climate change mitigation, through for example the AVOIDing dangerous climate change project for DEFRA, in which the avoided impacts (benefits) of alternative climate policies were compared to no-policy baselines. These highlight the potential for mitigation to remove a substantial fraction of the climate change impacts that would otherwise occur; but also show that is not possible to avoid all the impacts, and hence that adaptation will still be required. For example, this has been shown for projections of future European drought. CIAS has also been used for analyses used in the IPCC 4AR and the Stern review. Recent applications include a study of the role of avoided deforestation in climate mitigation, and a study of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. A second web portal, CLIMASCOPE, is being developed for use by stakeholders, currently focusing on the needs of adaptation planners. This will benefit communication by allowing a wide range of users free access to regional climate change projections in simple manner, yet one which encourages risk assessment through encapsulation of the uncertainties in climate change projection. Examples of CLIMASCOPE output that is being made available to stakeholders will be shown.

A Research Study to Develop an Army-Wide Equal Opportunity Training Model. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-03-01

three areas is detailed below. Personal Discrimination Personal racism (or sexism ) is defined in AR 600-21 in terms of " The acting out of prejudices by...example (6) Diagnosing unit climate on racism / sexism issues (a) unit survey (b) informal feedback (c) personal observation (7) Developing...various communities out of which the modem serviceman emerges. • Group Leadership Practicum-to provide the student with the theory and practice in

Characterization of recombinant E. coli expressing arsR from Rhodopseudomonas palustris CGA009 that displays highly selective arsenic adsorption.

PubMed

Ke, Changdong; Zhao, Chungui; Rensing, Christopher; Yang, Suping; Zhang, Yi

2018-05-22

Innovative methods to lower arsenic (As) exposure are sought. The As regulatory protein (ArsR) is reported of having high affinity and specificity to arsenite [As(III)]. Rhodopseudomonas palustris CGA009 is a good model organism for studying As detoxification due to at least three ars operons and four diverse arsR RP1-4 on the genome. In this study, four Escherichia coli harboring arsR RP1-4 derived from CGA009 were engineered and tested regarding their As resistance. The results showed that E. coli (arsR RP2 ) displayed robust As(III) resistance, and its growth inhibition rate was only 2.9% when exposed to 3.0 mmol/L As(III). At pH 7.0, E. coli (arsR RP2 ) showed an enhanced As adsorption capacity. As(III) (2.32 mg/g (dry weight, dw)) and 1.47 mg/g arsenate [As(V)] was adsorbed representing a 4.2-fold and 1.3-fold increase respectively compared to the control strain. The adsorption process was well fitted to Langmuir isothermal mode. E. coli (arsR RP2 ) (1.0~12.0 g/L) could remove 30.3~82.2% of As (III) when exposed to 10 μg/L As(III). No increase in absorption to copper(II), zinc(II), chromium(III), and lead(II) could be detected. Our studies revealed that arsR RP1-4 from CGA009 could confer As(III) resistance; E. coli (arsR RP2 ) displayed the highest As resistance, selectivity, and adsorption capacity within a wider pH (5.0~9.0) and salinity (0~15.0 g/L NaCl) range, especially important as it could remove As(III) from low concentration As-containing water.

Enhanced hydrological extremes in the western United States under global warming through the lens of water vapor wave activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Jian; Xue, Daokai; Gao, Yang

Understanding how regional hydrological extremes would respond to warming is a grand challenge to the community of climate change research. To address this challenge, we construct an analysis framework based on column integrated water vapor (CWV) wave activity to diagnose the wave component of the hydrological cycle that contributes to hydrological extremes. By applying the analysis to the historical and future climate projections from the CMIP5 models, we found that the wet-versus-dry disparity of daily net precipitation along a zonal band can increase at a super Clausius-Clapeyron rate due to the enhanced stirring length of wave activity at the polewardmore » flank of the mean storm track. The local variant of CWV wave activity reveals the unique characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in terms of their transport function, enhanced mixing and hydrological cycling rate (HC). Under RCP8.5, the local moist wave activity increases by ~40% over the northeastern Pacific by the end of the 21st century, indicating more ARs hitting the west coast, giving rise to a ~20% increase in the related hydrological extremes - $ despite a weakening of the local HC.« less

Annual mean mixing ratios of N2, Ar, O2, and CO in the martian atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasnopolsky, V.

2017-09-01

The precise mixing ratios of N2, Ar, O2, and CO measured by the MSL Curiosity quadrupole mass spectrometer must be corrected for the seasonal variations of the atmospheric pressure to reproduce annual mean mixing ratios on Mars. The corrections are made using measurements the Viking Landers and the Mars Climate Database data. The mean correction factor is 0.899 ± 0.006 resulting in annual mean mixing ratios of (1.83 ± 0.03)% for N2, (1.86 ± 0.02)% for Ar, (1.56 ± 0.06)×10-3 for O2, and 673 ± 2.6 ppm for CO. The O2 mixing ratio agrees with the Herschel value within its uncertainty, the ground-based observations corrected for the dust extinction, and photochemical models by Nair et al. (1994) and Krasnopolsky (2010). The CO mixing ratio is in excellent agreement with the MRO/CRISM value of 700 ppm and with 667, 693, and 684 ppm recently observed at LS = 60, 89, and 110° and corrected to the annual mean conditions. Lifetimes of N2 and Ar are very long in the martian atmosphere, and differences between the MSL and Viking data on these species cannot be attributed to their variations.

Annual mean mixing ratios of N2, Ar, O2, and CO in the martian atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasnopolsky, Vladimir A.

2017-09-01

The precise mixing ratios of N2, Ar, O2, and CO measured by the MSL Curiosity quadrupole mass spectrometer must be corrected for the seasonal variations of the atmospheric pressure to reproduce annual mean mixing ratios on Mars. The corrections are made using measurements for the first year of the Viking Landers 1 and 2 and the Mars Climate Database data. The mean correction factor is 0.899 ± 0.006 resulting in annual mean mixing ratios of (1.83 ± 0.03)% for N2, (1.86 ± 0.02)% for Ar, (1.56 ± 0.06) × 10-3 for O2, and 673 ± 2.6 ppm for CO. The O2 mixing ratio agrees with the Herschel value within its uncertainty, the ground-based observations corrected for the dust extinction, and photochemical models by Nair et al. (1994) and Krasnopolsky (2010). The CO mixing ratio is in excellent agreement with the MRO/CRISM value of 700 ppm and with 667, 693, and 684 ppm recently observed at LS = 60, 89, and 110° and corrected to the annual mean conditions. Lifetimes of N2 and Ar are very long in the martian atmosphere, and differences between the MSL and Viking data on these species cannot be attributed to their variations.

Sympathetic Nerves in Breast Cancer: Angiogenesis and Antiangiogenic Therapy

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-01

directly regulate 4T1 growth through ARs. Using in vitro conditions that yielded NE-mediated functional effects in other cell lines (1), we assessed...Therefore we propose that 4T1 is a good model for examining the effects of NE-induced effects on stromal cell populations in the absence of direct NE... effects analysis or by Holm-Sidak multiple comparison test. RESULTS 4T1 Tumor Cells Do Not Respond to NE In Vitro or Signal via AR To determine

ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) Science Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, L. R.; Prather, K.; Ralph, R.

The western U.S. receives precipitation predominantly during the cold season when storms approach from the Pacific Ocean. The snowpack that accumulates during winter storms provides about 70-90% of water supply for the region. Understanding and modeling the fundamental processes that govern the large precipitation variability and extremes in the western U.S. is a critical test for the ability of climate models to predict the regional water cycle, including floods and droughts. Two elements of significant importance in predicting precipitation variability in the western U.S. are atmospheric rivers and aerosols. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow bands of enhanced water vapor associatedmore » with the warm sector of extratropical cyclones over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Because of the large lower-tropospheric water vapor content, strong atmospheric winds and neutral moist static stability, some ARs can produce heavy precipitation by orographic enhancement during landfall on the U.S. West Coast. While ARs are responsible for a large fraction of heavy precipitation in that region during winter, much of the rest of the orographic precipitation occurs in post-frontal clouds, which are typically quite shallow, with tops just high enough to pass the mountain barrier. Such clouds are inherently quite susceptible to aerosol effects on both warm rain and ice precipitation-forming processes.« less

Association of Supergranule Mean Scales with Solar Cycle Strengths and Total Solar Irradiance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mandal, Sudip; Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Banerjee, Dipankar, E-mail: sudip@iiap.res.in

We analyze the long-term behavior of the supergranule scale parameter, in active regions (ARs) and quiet regions (QRs), using the Kodaikanal digitized data archive. This database provides century-long daily full disk observations of the Sun in Ca ii K wavelengths. In this paper, we study the distributions of the supergranular scales, over the whole data duration, which show identical shape in these two regimes. We found that the AR mean scale values are always higher than that of the QR for every solar cycle. The mean scale values are highly correlated with the sunspot number cycle amplitude and also withmore » total solar irradiance (TSI) variations. Such a correlation establishes the cycle-wise mean scale as a potential calibrator for the historical data reconstructions. We also see an upward trend in the mean scales, as has already been reported in TSI. This may provide new input for climate forcing models. These results also give us insight into the different evolutionary scenarios of the supergranules in the presence of strong (AR) and weak (QR) magnetic fields.« less

Association of Supergranule Mean Scales with Solar Cycle Strengths and Total Solar Irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Sudip; Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Banerjee, Dipankar

2017-07-01

We analyze the long-term behavior of the supergranule scale parameter, in active regions (ARs) and quiet regions (QRs), using the Kodaikanal digitized data archive. This database provides century-long daily full disk observations of the Sun in Ca II K wavelengths. In this paper, we study the distributions of the supergranular scales, over the whole data duration, which show identical shape in these two regimes. We found that the AR mean scale values are always higher than that of the QR for every solar cycle. The mean scale values are highly correlated with the sunspot number cycle amplitude and also with total solar irradiance (TSI) variations. Such a correlation establishes the cycle-wise mean scale as a potential calibrator for the historical data reconstructions. We also see an upward trend in the mean scales, as has already been reported in TSI. This may provide new input for climate forcing models. These results also give us insight into the different evolutionary scenarios of the supergranules in the presence of strong (AR) and weak (QR) magnetic fields.

Adenosine A2A Receptor Activation and Macrophage-mediated Experimental Glomerulonephritis

PubMed Central

Garcia, Gabriela E.; Truong, Luan D.; Li, Ping; Zhang, Ping; Du, Jie; Chen, Jiang-Fan; Feng, Lili

2010-01-01

In immune-induced inflammation, leukocytes are key mediators of tissue damage. Since A2A adenosine receptors (A2AR) are endogenous suppressors of inflammation, we examined cellular and molecular mechanisms of kidney damage to determine whether selective activation of A2AR will suppress inflammation in a rat model of glomerulonephritis. Activation of A2AR reduced the degree of kidney injury in both the acute inflammatory phase and the progressive phase of glomerulonephritis. This protection against acute and chronic inflammation was associated with suppression of the glomerular expression of the MDC/CCL22 chemokine and down-regulation of MIP-1α/CCL3, RANTES/CCL5, MIP-1β/CCL4, and MCP-1/CCL2 chemokines. The expression of anti-inflammatory cytokines, IL-4 and IL-10, also increased. The mechanism for these anti-inflammatory responses to the A2AR agonist was suppression of macrophages function. A2AR expression was increased in macrophages, macrophage-derived chemokines were reduced in response to the A2AR agonist, and chemokines not expressed in macrophages did not respond to A2AR activation. Thus, activation of the A2AR on macrophages inhibits immune-associated inflammation. In glomerulonephritis, A2AR activation modulates inflammation and tissue damage even in the progressive phase of glomerulonephritis. Accordingly, pharmacological activation of A2AR could be developed into a novel treatment for glomerulonephritis and other macrophage-related inflammatory diseases. PMID:17898087

High resolution modeling of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region over the Arctic - GEM-AC simulations for the future climate with and without aviation emissions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porebska, Magdalena; Struzewska, Joanna; Kaminski, Jacek W.

2016-04-01

Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region is a layer around the tropopause. Perturbation of the chemical composition in the UTLS region can impact physical and dynamical processes that can lead to changes in cloudiness, precipitation, radiative forcing, stratosphere-troposphere exchange and zonal flow. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of aviation emissions on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. In order to assess the impact of the aviation emissions we will focus on changes in atmospheric dynamic due to changes in chemical composition in the UTLS over the Arctic. Specifically, we will assess perturbations in the distribution of the wind, temperature and pressure fields in the UTLS region. Our study will be based on simulations using a high resolution chemical weather model for four scenarios of current (2006) and future (2050) climate: with and without aircraft emissions. The tool that we use is the GEM-AC (Global Environmental Multiscale with Atmospheric Chemistry) chemical weather model where air quality, free tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry processes are on-line and interactive in an operational weather forecast model of Environment Canada. In vertical, the model domain is defined on 70 hybrid levels with model top at 0.1 mb. The gas-phase chemistry includes detailed reactions of Ox, NOx, HOx, CO, CH4, ClOx and BrO. Also, the model can address aerosol microphysics and gas-aerosol partitioning. Aircraft emissions are from the AEDT 2006 database developed by the Federal Aviation Administration (USA) and the future climate simulations are based on RCP8.5 projection presented by the IPCC in the fifth Assessment Report AR5. Results from model simulations on a global variable grid with 0.5o x 0.5o uniform resolution over the Arctic will be presented.

ID4 promotes AR expression and blocks tumorigenicity of PC3 prostate cancer cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Komaragiri, Shravan Kumar; Bostanthirige, Dhanushka H.; Morton, Derrick J.

Deregulation of tumor suppressor genes is associated with tumorigenesis and the development of cancer. In prostate cancer, ID4 is epigenetically silenced and acts as a tumor suppressor. In normal prostate epithelial cells, ID4 collaborates with androgen receptor (AR) and p53 to exert its tumor suppressor activity. Previous studies have shown that ID4 promotes tumor suppressive function of AR whereas loss of ID4 results in tumor promoter activity of AR. Previous study from our lab showed that ectopic ID4 expression in DU145 attenuates proliferation and promotes AR expression suggesting that ID4 dependent AR activity is tumor suppressive. In this study, wemore » examined the effect of ectopic expression of ID4 on highly malignant prostate cancer cell, PC3. Here we show that stable overexpression of ID4 in PC3 cells leads to increased apoptosis and decreased cell proliferation and migration. In addition, in vivo studies showed a decrease in tumor size and volume of ID4 overexpressing PC3 cells, in nude mice. At the molecular level, these changes were associated with increased androgen receptor (AR), p21, and AR dependent FKBP51 expression. At the mechanistic level, ID4 may regulate the expression or function of AR through specific but yet unknown AR co-regulators that may determine the final outcome of AR function. - Highlights: • ID4 expression induces AR expression in PC3 cells, which generally lack AR. • ID4 expression increased apoptosis and decreased cell proliferation and invasion. • Overexpression of ID4 reduces tumor growth of subcutaneous xenografts in vivo. • ID4 induces p21 and FKBP51 expression- co-factors of AR tumor suppressor activity.« less

The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

2017-04-01

It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

Simulations show decreasing carbon stocks and potential for carbon emissions in Rocky Mountain forests over the next century.

PubMed

Boisvenue, Céline; Running, Steven W

2010-07-01

Climate change has altered the environment in which forests grow, and climate change models predict more severe alterations to come. Forests have already responded to these changes, and the future temperature and precipitation scenarios are of foremost concern, especially in the mountainous western United States, where forests occur in the dry environments that interface with grasslands. The objective of this study was to understand the trade-offs between temperature and water controls on these forested sites in the context of available climate projections. Three temperature and precipitation scenarios from IPCC AR4 AOGCMs ranging in precipitation levels were input to the process model Biome-BGC for key forested sites in the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains. Despite the omission of natural and human-caused disturbances in our simulations, our results show consequential effects from these conservative future temperature and precipitation scenarios. According to these projections, if future precipitation and temperatures are similar to or drier than the dry scenario depicted here, high-elevation forests on both the drier and wetter sites, which have in the absence of disturbance accumulated carbon, will reduce their carbon accumulation. Under the marginally drier climate projections, most forests became carbon sources by the end of the simulation horizon (2089). Under all three scenarios, growing season lengthened, the number of days with snow on the ground decreased, peak snow occurred earlier, and water stress increased through the projection horizon (1950-2089) for all sites, which represent the temperature and precipitation spectrum of forests in this region. The quantity, form, and timing of precipitation ultimately drive the carbon accumulation trajectory of forests in this region.

Final Technical Report for Project "Improving the Simulation of Arctic Clouds in CCSM3"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen J. Vavrus

2008-11-15

This project has focused on the simulation of Arctic clouds in CCSM3 and how the modeled cloud amount (and climate) can be improved substantially by altering the parameterized low cloud fraction. The new formula, dubbed 'freeezedry', alleviates the bias of excessive low clouds during polar winter by reducing the cloud amount under very dry conditions. During winter, freezedry decreases the low cloud amount over the coldest regions in high latitudes by over 50% locally and more than 30% averaged across the Arctic (Fig. 1). The cloud reduction causes an Arctic-wide drop of 15 W m{sup -2} in surface cloud radiativemore » forcing (CRF) during winter and about a 50% decrease in mean annual Arctic CRF. Consequently, wintertime surface temperatures fall by up to 4 K on land and 2-8 K over the Arctic Ocean, thus significantly reducing the model's pronounced warm bias (Fig. 1). While improving the polar climate simulation in CCSM3, freezedry has virtually no influence outside of very cold regions (Fig. 2) or during summer (Fig. 3), which are space and time domains that were not targeted. Furthermore, the simplicity of this parameterization allows it to be readily incorporated into other GCMs, many of which also suffer from excessive wintertime polar cloudiness, based on the results from the CMIP3 archive (Vavrus et al., 2008). Freezedry also affects CCSM3's sensitivity to greenhouse forcing. In a transient-CO{sub 2} experiment, the model version with freezedry warms up to 20% less in the North Polar and South Polar regions (1.5 K and 0.5 K smaller warming, respectively) (Fig. 4). Paradoxically, the muted high-latitude response occurs despite a much larger increase in cloud amount with freezedry during non-summer months (when clouds warm the surface), apparently because of the colder modern reference climate. These results of the freezedry parameterization have recently been published (Vavrus and D. Waliser, 2008: An improved parameterization for simulating Arctic cloud amount in the CCSM3 climate model. J. Climate, 21, 5673-5687.). The article also provides a novel synthesis of surface- and satellite-based Arctic cloud observations that show how much the new freezedry parameterization improves the simulated cloud amount in high latitudes (Fig. 3). Freezedry has been incorporated into the CCSM3.5 version, in which it successfully limits the excessive polar clouds, and may be used in CCSM4. Material from this work is also appearing in a synthesis article on future Arctic cloud changes (Vavrus, D. Waliser, J. Francis, and A. Schweiger, 'Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4', accepted in Climate Dynamics) and was used in a collaborative paper on Arctic cloud-sea ice coupling (Schweiger, A., R. Lindsay, S. Vavrus, and J. Francis, 2008: Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn. J. Climate, 21, 4799-4810.). This research was presented at the 2007 CCSM Annual Workshop, as well as the CCSM's 2007 Atmospheric Model Working Group and Polar Working Group Meetings. The findings were also shown at the 2007 Climate Change Prediction Program's Science Team Meeting. In addition, I served as an instructor at the International Arctic Research Center's (IARC) Summer School on Arctic Climate Modeling in Fairbanks this summer, where I presented on the challenges and techniques used in simulating polar clouds. I also contributed to the development of a new Arctic System Model by attending a workshop in Colorado this summer on this fledgling project. Finally, an outreach activity for the general public has been the development of an interactive web site () that displays Arctic cloud amount in the CMIP3 climate model archive under present and future scenarios. This site allows users to make polar and global maps of a variety of climate variables to investigate the individual and ensemble-mean GCM response to greenhouse warming and the extent to which models adequately represent Arctic clouds in the modern climate. This site was used extensively in the IARC summer school projects. This work has also led to a collaboration this year during a 4-month visit I made to NCAR through its Faculty Fellowship Program. I worked with scientists Marika Holland, David Bailey, Andrew Gettleman, and Jen Kay, who are researching polar climate and/or clouds. I met with this group frequently during my visit, leading to some fruitful interactions. This work led to the discovery of a tightly coupled response of clouds and sea ice during intervals of rapid sea ice loss in greenhouse simulations, as well as advising on the evolving CCSM3.5 to CCSM4 model development. This involvement with NCAR also led to a longer-term connection, as I have recently begun a two-year stint on the SSC for CCSM.« less

Interplay Between Cytoplasmic and Nuclear Androgen Receptor Splice Variants Mediate Castration Resistance

PubMed Central

Zhan, Yang; Zhang, Guanyi; Wang, Xiaojie; Qi, Yanfeng; Bai, Shanshan; Li, Dongying; Ma, Tianfang; Sartor, Oliver; Flemington, Erik K.; Zhang, Haitao; Lee, Peng; Dong, Yan

2016-01-01

Androgen receptor splice variants (AR-Vs) are implicated in resistance of prostate cancer to androgen-directed therapies. When expressed alone in cells, some AR-Vs (e.g., AR-V7) localize primarily to the nucleus, whereas others (e.g., AR-V1, AR-V4, and AR-V6) localize mainly to the cytoplasm. Significantly, the latter are often co-expressed with the nucleus-predominant AR-Vs and the full-length AR (AR-FL). An important question to be addressed is whether the cytoplasmic-localized AR-Vs play a role in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) through interaction with the nucleus-predominant AR-Vs and AR-FL. Here, it is demonstrated that AR-V1, -V4, and -V6 can dimerize with both AR-V7 and AR-FL. Consequently, AR-V7 and androgen-bound AR-FL induced nuclear localization of AR-V1, -V4, and -V6, and these variants, in turn, mitigated the ability of the anti-androgen enzalutamide to inhibit androgen-induced AR-FL nuclear localization. Interestingly, the impact of nuclear localization of AR-V4 and -V6 on AR transactivation differs from that of AR-V1. Nuclear localization leads to an increased ability of AR-V4 and -V6 to transactivate both canonical AR targets and AR-V-specific targets and to confer castration-resistant cell growth. However, while AR-V1, which lacks inherent transcriptional activity, appears to activate AR-FL in an androgen-independent manner, it significantly antagonizes AR-V7 transactivation. Together, these data demonstrate that the complex interactions among different AR-Vs and AR-FL play a significant role in castration resistant disease. Implications This study suggests important consequences for clinical castration resistance due to simultaneous expression of AR-FL and AR-Vs in patient tumors and suggests that dissecting these interactions should help develop effective strategies to disrupt AR-V signaling. PMID:27671337

Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

2014-12-01

The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction technique is applied when using the RCM climatology to the streamflow model. Of specific interest is how major droughts associated with La Niña-like conditions may worsen in the future, as these are the times when the Colorado River system is most critically stressed and would define the "worst case" scenario for water resource planning.

(234)U/(238)U signatures associated with uranium ore bodies: part 1 Ranger 3.

PubMed

Lowson, Richard T; McIntyre, Mark G

2013-04-01

The Ranger 3 ore body is an early Proterozoic U ore body in the Alligator Rivers U province, Northern Territory, Australia. It has surface expression with a redox front located between 30 and 50 m below the surface. The ground water U concentration and (234)U/(238)U AR signature in the top 10 m of the weathered zone are reported for 357 samples collected over 4 wet seasons, at 5 depths, along a transect in-line with the hydraulic gradient and along the centre line of the ore body and its associated dispersion halo. The results show that the weathered zone displays a general U isotope feature for this type of ore body with the (234)U/(238)U AR for the ground water and amorphous phase of the solid matrix being less than 1. The ground water (234)U/(238)U AR is independent of the annual monsoonal climate and depth within the range surface to 10 m. In the vicinity of the U ore body the ground water (234)U/(238)U AR is 0.75 and is very similar to the (234)U/(238)U AR of the amorphous phase of the solid (0.76). The (234)U/(238)U ARs of the amorphous phase and ground water rise and separate to values of 0.88 and 1.02 at the end of the transect. The rise and separation in (234)U/(238)U AR are interpreted as evidence that the source of the U in the ground water is from the water-soluble sub-phase of the amorphous phase and that the ground water flow is too fast to allow the processes occurring across the solid-water interface to reach chemical equilibrium. The data set is a robust characterisation of the coarse and fine detail of the (234)U/(238)U AR signature in the weathered zone of U ore bodies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative molecular field analysis of fenoterol derivatives: A platform towards highly selective and effective beta(2)-adrenergic receptor agonists.

PubMed

Jozwiak, Krzysztof; Woo, Anthony Yiu-Ho; Tanga, Mary J; Toll, Lawrence; Jimenez, Lucita; Kozocas, Joseph A; Plazinska, Anita; Xiao, Rui-Ping; Wainer, Irving W

2010-01-15

To use a previously developed CoMFA model to design a series of new structures of high selectivity and efficacy towards the beta(2)-adrenergic receptor. Out of 21 computationally designed structures 6 compounds were synthesized and characterized for beta(2)-AR binding affinities, subtype selectivities and functional activities. the best compound is (R,R)-4-methoxy-1-naphthylfelnoterol with K(i)beta(2)-AR=0.28microm, K(i)beta(1)-AR/K(i)beta(2)-AR=573, EC(50cAMP)=3.9nm, EC(50cardio)=16nm. The CoMFA model appears to be an effective predictor of the cardiomocyte contractility of the studied compounds which are targeted for use in congestive heart failure. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chronology and petrogenesis of a 1.8 g lunar granitic clast:14321,1062

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, C.-Y.; Bansal, B. M.; Wiesmann, H.; Nyquist, L. E.; Bogard, D. D.; Wooden, J. L.

1985-01-01

Geochronological, isotopic, and trace element data for a pristine granite clast from Apollo 14 breccia 14321 obtained using Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, and (Ar-39)-(Ar-40) methods are presented. Trace element data for a possibly related evolved rock, the quartz-monodiorite clast from breccia 15404 are also presented, and the relationship between these two rock types is discussed. The concordancy of the Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd internal isochron ages and especially the Rb-Sr model age strongly suggest that the granite clast formed 4.1 AE ago. It probably crystallized slowly in the crust and was later excavated and brecciated about 3.88 AE ago, as indicated by the Ar-Ar age. A two-stage model involving crystal fractionation followed by silicate liquid immiscibility is proposed for the lunar granite genesis.

In the (sub)tropics allergic rhinitis and its impact on asthma classification of allergic rhinitis is more useful than perennial-seasonal classification.

PubMed

Larenas-Linnemann, Désirée; Michels, Alexandra; Dinger, Hanna; Arias-Cruz, Alfredo; Ambriz Moreno, Marichuy; Bedolla Barajas, Martin; Javier, Ruth Cerino; Cid Del Prado, Maria de la Luz; Cruz Moreno, Manuel Alejandro; Vergara, Laura Diego; García Almaráz, Roberto; García-Cobas, Cecilia Y; Garcia Imperial, Daniel Alberto; Muñoz, Rosa Garcia; Hernandez Colín, Dante; Linares Zapien, Francisco Javier; Luna Pech, Jorge Agustín; Matta Campos, Juan Jose; Martinez Jimenez, Norma; Avalos, Miguel Medina; Medina Hernandez, Alejandra; Maldonado, Albero Monteverde; López, Doris Nereida; Pizano Nazara, Luis Julian; Sanchez, Emanuel Ramirez; Ramos López, José Domingo; Rodriguez-Pérez, Noel; Rodriguez Ortiz, Pablo G; Shah-Hosseini, Kijawasch; Mösges, Ralph

2014-01-01

Two different allergic rhinitis (AR) symptom phenotype classifications exist. Treatment recommendations are based on intermittent-persistent (INT-PER) cataloging, but clinical trials still use the former seasonal AR-perennial AR (SAR-PAR) classification. This study was designed to describe how INT-PER, mild-moderate/severe and SAR-PAR of patients seen by allergists are distributed over the different climate zones in a (sub)tropical country and how these phenotypes relate to allergen sensitization patterns. Six climate zones throughout Mexico were determined, based on National Geographic Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía) data. Subsequent AR patients (2-68 years old) underwent a blinded, standardized skin-prick test and filled out a validated questionnaire phenotyping AR. Five hundred twenty-nine subjects participated in this study. In the tropical zone with 87% house-dust mite sensitization, INT (80.9%; p < 0.001) and PAR (91%; p = 0.04) were more frequent than in the subtropics. In the central high-pollen areas, there was less moderate/severe AR (65.5%; p < 0.005). Frequency of comorbid asthma showed a clear north-south gradient, from 25% in the dry north to 59% in the tropics (p < 0.005). No differences exist in AR cataloging among patients with different sensitization patterns, with two minor exceptions (more PER in tree sensitized and more PAR in mold positives; p < 0.05). In a (sub)tropical country the SAR-PAR classification seems of limited value and bears poor relation with the INT-PER classification. INT is more frequent in the tropical zone. Because PER has been shown to relate to AR severity, clinical trials should select patients based on INT-PER combined with the severity cataloging because these make for a better treatment guide than SAR-PAR.

Multi-hazard risk assessment of the Republic of Mauritius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mysiak, Jaroslav; Galli, Alberto; Amadio, Mattia; Teatini, Chiara

2013-04-01

The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a small island developing state (SIDS), part of the Mascarene Islands in West Indian Ocean, comprised by Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St. Brandon islands and several islets. ROM is exposed to many natural hazards notably cyclones, tsunamis, torrential precipitation, landslides, and droughts; and highly vulnerable sea level rise (SLR) driven by human induced climate change. The multihazard risk assessment presented in this paper is aimed at identifying the areas prone to flood, inundation and landslide hazard, and inform the development of strategy for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Climate risk analysis - a central component of the analysis - is one of the first comprehensive climate modelling studies conducted for the country. Climate change may lift the temperature by 1-2 degree Celsius by 2060-2070, and increase sizably the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. According to the IPCC Forth Assessment Report (AR4), the expected Sea Level Rise (SLR) ranges between 16 and 49 cm. Individually or in combination, the inland flood, coastal inundation and landslide hazards affect large proportion of the country. Sea level rise and the changes in precipitation regimes will amplified existing vulnerabilities and create new ones. The paper outlines an Action plan for Disaster Risk Reduction that takes into account the likely effects of climate change. The Action Plan calls on the government to establish a National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction as recommended by the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015. It consists of nine recommendations which, if put in practice, will significantly reduce the annual damage to natural hazard and produce additional (ancillary) benefits in economic, social and environmental terms.

Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

2014-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and the Pilot Program on Climate Resilience.

The ChArMEx database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferré, Hélène; Belmahfoud, Nizar; Boichard, Jean-Luc; Brissebrat, Guillaume; Cloché, Sophie; Descloitres, Jacques; Fleury, Laurence; Focsa, Loredana; Henriot, Nicolas; Mière, Arnaud; Ramage, Karim; Vermeulen, Anne; Boulanger, Damien

2015-04-01

The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx, http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr/) aims at a scientific assessment of the present and future state of the atmospheric environment in the Mediterranean Basin, and of its impacts on the regional climate, air quality, and marine biogeochemistry. The project includes long term monitoring of environmental parameters , intensive field campaigns, use of satellite data and modelling studies. Therefore ChARMEx scientists produce and need to access a wide diversity of data. In this context, the objective of the database task is to organize data management, distribution system and services, such as facilitating the exchange of information and stimulating the collaboration between researchers within the ChArMEx community, and beyond. The database relies on a strong collaboration between ICARE, IPSL and OMP data centers and has been set up in the framework of the Mediterranean Integrated Studies at Regional And Locals Scales (MISTRALS) program data portal. ChArMEx data, either produced or used by the project, are documented and accessible through the database website: http://mistrals.sedoo.fr/ChArMEx. The website offers the usual but user-friendly functionalities: data catalog, user registration procedure, search tool to select and access data... The metadata (data description) are standardized, and comply with international standards (ISO 19115-19139; INSPIRE European Directive; Global Change Master Directory Thesaurus). A Digital Object Identifier (DOI) assignement procedure allows to automatically register the datasets, in order to make them easier to access, cite, reuse and verify. At present, the ChArMEx database contains about 120 datasets, including more than 80 in situ datasets (2012, 2013 and 2014 summer campaigns, background monitoring station of Ersa...), 25 model output sets (dust model intercomparison, MEDCORDEX scenarios...), a high resolution emission inventory over the Mediterranean... Many in situ datasets have been inserted in a relational database, in order to enable more accurate selection and download of different datasets in a shared format. Many dedicated satellite products (SEVIRI, TRIMM, PARASOL...) are processed and will soon be accessible through the database website. In order to meet the operational needs of the airborne and ground based observational teams during the ChArMEx campaigns, a day-to-day chart display website has been developed and operated: http://choc.sedoo.org. It offers a convenient way to browse weather conditions and chemical composition during the campaign periods. Every scientist is invited to visit the ChArMEx websites, to register and to request data. Feel free to contact charmex-database@sedoo.fr for any question.

Experimental study of 38Ar+α reaction cross sections relevant to the 41Ca abundance in the solar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talwar, R.; Bojazi, M. J.; Mohr, P.; Auranen, K.; Avila, M. L.; Ayangeakaa, A. D.; Harker, J.; Hoffman, C. R.; Jiang, C. L.; Kuvin, S. A.; Meyer, B. S.; Rehm, K. E.; Santiago-Gonzalez, D.; Sethi, J.; Ugalde, C.; Winkelbauer, J. R.

2018-05-01

In massive stars, the 41Ca(n ,α )38Ar and 41K(p ,α )38Ar reactions have been identified as the key reactions governing the abundance of 41Ca, which is considered as a potential chronometer for solar system formation. So far, due to experimental limitations, the 41Ca(n ,α )38Ar reaction rate is solely based on statistical model calculations. In the present study, we have measured the time-inverse 38Ar(α ,n )41Ca and 38Ar(α ,p )41K reactions using an active target detector. The reactions were studied in inverse kinematics using a 133-MeV 38Ar beam and 4He as the active-gas target. Both excitation functions were measured simultaneously in the energy range of 6.8 ≤Ec .m .≤9.3 MeV. Using detailed balance the 41Ca(n ,α )38Ar and 41K(p ,α )38Ar reaction rates were determined, which suggested a 20% increase in the 41Ca yield from massive stars.

A Software Prototype For Accessing Large Climate Simulation Data Through Digital Globe Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhuri, A.; Sorokine, A.

2010-12-01

The IPCC suite of global Earth system models produced terabytes of data for the CMIP3/AR4 archive and is expected to reach the petabyte scale by CMIP5/AR5. Dynamic downscaling of global models based on regional climate models can potentially lead to even larger data volumes. The model simulations for global or regional climate models like CCSM3 or WRF are typically run on supercomputers like the ORNL/DOE Jaguar and the results are stored on high performance storage systems. Access to these results from a user workstation is impeded by a number of factors such as enormous data size, limited bandwidth of standard office networks, data formats which are not fully supported by applications. So, a user-friendly interface for accessing and visualizing these results over standard Internet connection is required to facilitate collaborative work among geographically dispersed groups of scientists. To address this problem, we have developed a virtual globe based application which enables the scientists to query, visualize and analyze the results without the need of large data transfers to desktops and department-level servers. We have used open-source NASA WorldWind as a virtual globe platform and extended it with modules capable of visualizing model outputs stored in NetCDF format, while the data resides on the high-performance system. Based on the query placed by the scientist, our system initiates data processing routines on the high performance storage system to subset the data and reduce its size and then transfer it back to scientist's workstation through secure shell tunnel. The whole operation is kept totally transparent to the scientist and for the most part is controlled from a point-and-click GUI. The virtual globe also serves as a common platform for geospatial data, allowing smooth integration of the model simulation results with geographic data from other sources such as various web services or user-specific data in local files, if required. Also the system has the capability of building and updating a metadata catalog on the high performance storage that presents a simplified summary of the stored variables, hiding the low-level details such as physical location, size or format of the files from the user. Since data are often contributed to the system from multiple sources, the metadata catalog provides the user with a bird's eye view of the recent status of the database. As a next step, we plan on parallelizing the metadata updating and query-driven data selection routines to reduce the query response time. At current stage, the system can be immediately useful in making climate model simulation results available to a greater number of researchers who need simple and intuitive visualization of the simulation data or want to perform some analysis on it. The system's utility can reach beyond this particular application since it is generic enough to be ported to other high performance systems and to enable easy access to other types of geographic data.

Climate Products and Services to Meet the Challenges of Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalla, M. R.

2008-12-01

The 2002 Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM1)-sponsored report, Weather Information for Surface Transportation: National Needs Assessment Report, addressed meteorological needs for six core modes of surface transportation: roadway, railway, transit, marine transportation/operations, pipeline, and airport ground operations. The report's goal was to articulate the weather information needs and attendant surface transportation weather products and services for those entities that use, operate, and manage America's surface transportation infrastructure. The report documented weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. More recently, the 2008 Climate Change Science Program's (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.7 entitled, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, included many of the impacts from the OFCM- sponsored report in Table 1.1 of this SAP.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that since 1950, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and areas of drought. Moreover, the IPCC indicated that greater wind speeds could accompany more severe tropical cyclones.3 Taken together, the OFCM, CCSP, and IPCC reports indicate not only the significance of extreme events, but also the potential increasing significance of many of the weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. Accordingly, there is a real and urgent need to understand what climate products and services are available now to address the weather thresholds within the surface transportation arena. It is equally urgent to understand what new climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and articulate what can be done to fill the gap between the existing federal climate products and services and the needed federal climate products and services which will address these weather thresholds. Just as important, as we work to meet the needs, a robust education and outreach program is essential to take full advantage of new products, services and capabilities. To ascertain what climate products and services currently exist to address weather thresholds relative to surface transportation, what climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and how to bridge the gap between what is available and what is needed, the OFCM surveyed the federal meteorological community. Consistent with the extreme events highlighted in the IPCC report, the OFCM survey categorized the weather thresholds associated with surface transportation into the following extreme event areas: (a) excessive heat, (b) winter precipitation, (c) summer precipitation, (d) high winds, and (e) flooding and coastal inundation. The survey results, the gap analysis, as well as OFCM's planned, follow-on activities with additional categories (i.e., in addition to surface transportation) and weather thresholds will be shared with meeting participants. 1 The OFCM is an interdepartmental office established in response to Public Law 87-843 with the mission to ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather and climate requirements, products, services, and supporting research among the federal agencies. 2 http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/final-report/sap4-7-final-ch1.pdf 3 http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/ar4/wg1/faq/ar4wg1faq-3-3.pdf

Sensitivity Analysis Tailored to Constrain 21st Century Terrestrial Carbon-Uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, S. J.; Gerber, S.

2013-12-01

The long-term fate of terrestrial carbon (C) in response to climate change remains a dominant source of uncertainty in Earth-system model projections. Increasing atmospheric CO2 could be mitigated by long-term net uptake of C, through processes such as increased plant productivity due to "CO2-fertilization". Conversely, atmospheric conditions could be exacerbated by long-term net release of C, through processes such as increased decomposition due to higher temperatures. This balance is an important area of study, and a major source of uncertainty in long-term (>year 2050) projections of planetary response to climate change. We present results from an innovative application of sensitivity analysis to LM3V, a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), intended to identify observed/observable variables that are useful for constraining long-term projections of C-uptake. We analyzed the sensitivity of cumulative C-uptake by 2100, as modeled by LM3V in response to IPCC AR4 scenario climate data (1860-2100), to perturbations in over 50 model parameters. We concurrently analyzed the sensitivity of over 100 observable model variables, during the extant record period (1970-2010), to the same parameter changes. By correlating the sensitivities of observable variables with the sensitivity of long-term C-uptake we identified model calibration variables that would also constrain long-term C-uptake projections. LM3V employs a coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle to account for N-limitation, and we find that N-related variables have an important role to play in constraining long-term C-uptake. This work has implications for prioritizing field campaigns to collect global data that can help reduce uncertainties in the long-term land-atmosphere C-balance. Though results of this study are specific to LM3V, the processes that characterize this model are not completely divorced from other DGVMs (or reality), and our approach provides valuable insights into how data can be leveraged to be better constrain projections for the land carbon sink.

The Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue Simulated by IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs: Upper Ocean Heat Budget and Feedback Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-15

ET AL .: THE PACIFIC COLD TONGUE BIAS ANALYSIS C05024 circulation, which intensifies the surface easterly winds over the Pacific Basin, further...productivity, and in carbon cycling since it is the major oceanic source of C02 for the atmosphere [Field et al , 1998; Calvo et al , 2011]. Large SST anomalies...used for climate predictions and projec- tions [Neelin et al , 1992; Mechoso et al , 1995; Delecluse et al , 1998; Laufet al , 2001; Davey

Regional services in a research context: USDA climate hubs in the agricultural research service

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ten USDA Climate Hubs were created in 2014 to develop and deliver science-based, region-specific information and technologies to better enable agricultural decision-making and management. Of these ten Hubs, half are administered by USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS), an agency with historica...

Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WorkingGroup III

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barker, Terry; Bashmakov, Igor; Bernstein, Lenny

2007-04-30

A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change,more » - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report.« less

Earth radiation balance as observed and represented in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Schär, Christoph; Loeb, Norman; König-Langlo, Gert

2014-05-01

The genesis and evolution of Earth's climate is largely regulated by the Earth radiation balance. Despite of its key role in the context of climate change, substantial uncertainties still exist in the quantification of the magnitudes of its different components, and its representation in climate models. While the net radiative energy flows in and out of the climate system at the top of atmosphere are now known with considerable accuracy from new satellite programs such as CERES and SORCE, the energy distribution within the climate system and at the Earth's surface is less well determined. Accordingly, the magnitudes of the components of the surface energy balance have recently been controversially disputed, and potential inconsistencies between the estimated magnitudes of the global energy and water cycle have been emphasized. Here we summarize this discussion as presented in Chapter 2.3 of the 5th IPCC assessment report (AR5). In this context we made an attempt to better constrain the magnitudes of the surface radiative components with largest uncertainties. In addition to satellite observations, we thereby made extensive use of the growing number of surface observations to constrain the radiation balance not only from space, but also from the surface. We combined these observations with the latest modeling efforts performed for AR5 (CMIP5) to infer best estimates for the global mean surface radiative components. Our analyses favor global mean values of downward surface solar and thermal radiation near 185 and 342 Wm-2, respectively, which are most compatible with surface observations (Wild et al. 2013). These estimates are on the order of 10 Wm-2 lower and higher, respectively, than in some of the previous global energy balance assessments, including those presented in previous IPCC reports. It is encouraging that these estimates, which make full use of the information contained in the surface networks, coincide within 2 Wm-2 with the latest satellite-derived estimates (Kato et al. 2013), which are completely independently determined. This enhances confidence in these recent surface flux estimates. IPCC AR5 further presents increasing evidence from direct observations that the surface radiative fluxes undergo significant changes on decadal timescales, not only in their thermal components as expected from the increasing greenhouse effect, but also in the amount of solar radiation that reaches the Earth surface. In the thermal range, surface observations suggest an overall increase of downward thermal radiation in line with latest projections from the CMIP5 models and expectations from an increasing greenhouse effect. On the other hand the strong decadal changes in surface solar radiation seen in the observations ("dimming/brightening") are not fully captured by current climate models. These decadal changes in surface solar radiation may largely affect various aspects of climate change. Selected related references: Hartmann, D.L., A.M.G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, L. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, Y. Charabi, F. Dentener, E. Dlugokencky, D. Easterling, A. Kaplan, B. Soden, P. Thorne, M. Wild and P.M. Zhai, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Kato, S., Loeb, N.G., Rose, F.G., Doelling, D.R., Rutan, D.A., Caldwell, T.E., Yu, L.S, and Weller, R.A., 2013: Surface irradiances consistent with CERES-derived top-of-atmosphere shortwave and longwave irradiances. Journal of Climate 26 (9):2719-2740. doi:Doi 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00436.1 Wild, M., 2012: New Directions: A facelift for the picture of the global energy balance. Atmospheric Environment, 55, 366-367. Wild, M. 2012: Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 27-37, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1 Wild, M., Folini, D., Schär, C., Loeb, N., Dutton, E.G., and König-Langlo, G., 2013: The global energy balance from a surface perspective, Clim. Dyn., 40, 3107-3134, Doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8.

Molecular dynamics computer simulation of permeation in solids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pohl, P.I.; Heffelfinger, G.S.; Fisler, D.K.

1997-12-31

In this work the authors simulate permeation of gases and cations in solid models using molecular mechanics and a dual control volume grand canonical molecular dynamics technique. The molecular sieving nature of microporous zeolites are discussed and compared with that for amorphous silica made by sol-gel methods. One mesoporous and one microporous membrane model are tested with Lennard-Jones gases corresponding to He, H{sub 2}, Ar and CH{sub 4}. The mesoporous membrane model clearly follows a Knudsen diffusion mechanism, while the microporous model having a hard-sphere cutoff pore diameter of {approximately}3.4 {angstrom} demonstrates molecular sieving of the methane ({sigma} = 3.8more » {angstrom}) but anomalous behavior for Ar ({sigma} = 3.4 {angstrom}). Preliminary results of Ca{sup +} diffusion in calcite and He/H{sub 2} diffusion in polyisobutylene are also presented.« less

Synthesis of hexa aza cages, SarAr-NCS and AmBaSar and a study of their metal complexation, conjugation to nanomaterials and proteins for application in radioimaging and therapy.

PubMed

Mume, Eskender; Asad, Ali; Di Bartolo, Nadine M; Kong, Linggen; Smith, Christopher; Sargeson, Alan M; Price, Roger; Smith, Suzanne V

2013-10-28

A novel hexa aza cage, N(1)-(4-isothiocyanatobenzyl)-3,6,10,13,16,19-hexaazabicyclo[6.6.6]icosane-1,8-diamine (SarAr-NCS) was synthesized in good yield and characterized by (1)H NMR and electrospray mass spectrometry. A new method for the synthesis of the related N(1)-(4-carboxybenzyl)-3,6,10,13,16,19-hexaazabicyclo[6.6.6]icosane-1,8-diamine (AmBaSar) using the p-carboxybenzaldehyde is reported. The complexation of Cu(2+), Co(2+) and Zn(2+) by the two ligands over a range of pHs was found to be similar to the parent derivative SarAr. SarAr-NCS was conjugated to both silica particles (≈90 nm diam.) and the model B72.3 murine antibody. The SarAr-NCSN-silica particles were radiolabeled with Cu(2+) doped (64)Cu and the number of ligands conjugated was calculated to be an average of 7020 ligands per particle. Conjugation of SarAr-NCS to the B72.3 antibody was optimized over a range of conditions. The SarAr-NCSN-B72.3 conjugate was stored in buffer and as a lyophilized powder at 4 °C over 38 days. Its radiolabeling efficiency, stability and immunoreactivity were maintained. The development of a high yielding synthesis of SarAr-NCS should provide an entry point for a wide range of Cu and Zn radiometal PET imaging agents and potentially radiotherapeutic agents with (67)Cu.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive tomore » alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.« less

Classification and virtual screening of androgen receptor antagonists.

PubMed

Li, Jiazhong; Gramatica, Paola

2010-05-24

Computational tools, such as quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), are highly useful as screening support for prioritization of substances of very high concern (SVHC). From the practical point of view, QSAR models should be effective to pick out more active rather than inactive compounds, expressed as sensitivity in classification works. This research investigates the classification of a big data set of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs)-androgen receptor (AR) antagonists, mainly aiming to improve the external sensitivity and to screen for potential AR binders. The kNN, lazy IB1, and ADTree methods and the consensus approach were used to build different models, which improve the sensitivity on external chemicals from 57.1% (literature) to 76.4%. Additionally, the models' predictive abilities were further validated on a blind collected data set (sensitivity: 85.7%). Then the proposed classifiers were used: (i) to distinguish a set of AR binders into antagonists and agonists; (ii) to screen a combined estrogen receptor binder database to find out possible chemicals that can bind to both AR and ER; and (iii) to virtually screen our in-house environmental chemical database. The in silico screening results suggest: (i) that some compounds can affect the normal endocrine system through a complex mechanism binding both to ER and AR; (ii) new EDCs, which are nonER binders, but can in silico bind to AR, are recognized; and (iii) about 20% of compounds in a big data set of environmental chemicals are predicted as new AR antagonists. The priority should be given to them to experimentally test the binding activities with AR.

Throwing enhances humeral shaft cortical bone properties in pre-pubertal baseball players: a 12-month longitudinal pilot study.

PubMed

Weatherholt, Alyssa M; Warden, Stuart J

2018-06-01

To explore throwing athletes as a prospective, within-subject controlled model for studying the response of the skeleton to exercise. Male pre-pubertal throwing athletes (n=12; age=10.3±0.6 yrs) had distal humerus cortical volumetric bone mineral density (Ct.vBMD), cortical bone mineral content (Ct.BMC), total area (Tt.Ar), cortical area (Ct.Ar), medullary area (Me.Ar), cortical thickness (Ct.Th) and polar moment of inertia (IP) assessed within their throwing (exercised) and nonthrowing (control) arms by peripheral quantitative computed tomography at baseline and 12 months. Throwing-to-nonthrowing arm percent differences (i.e. bilateral asymmetry) were compared over time. Over 12 months, the throwing arm gained 4.3% (95% Cl=1.1% to 7.5%), 2.9% (95% Cl=0.3% to 5.4%), 3.9% (95% Cl=0.7% to 7.0%), and 8.2% (95% Cl=2.0% to 6.8%) more Ct.BMC, Ct.Ar, Tt.Ar, and I P than the nonthrowing arm, respectively (all p<0.05). There was no significant effect of throwing on Ct.vBMD, Ct.Th and Me.Ar (all p=0.18-0.82). Throwing induced surface-specific cortical bone adaptation at the distal humeral diaphysis that contributed to a gain in estimated strength. These longitudinal pilot data support the utility of throwing athletes as a within-subject controlled model to explore factors influencing exercise-induced bone adaptation during the critical growing years.

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, David F.

2010-01-01

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Global Trends and Variability in Integrated Water Vapor from Ground-Based GPS Data and Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, O.; Parracho, A. C.; Bastin, S.; Hourdin, F.

2016-12-01

A high-quality, consistent, global, long-term dataset of integrated water vapor (IWV) was produced from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at more than 400 sites over the globe among which 120 sites have more than 15 years of data. The GPS delay data were converted to IWV using surface pressure and weighted mean temperature estimates from ERA-Interim reanalysis. A two-step screening method was developed to detect and remove outliers in the IWV data. It is based on: 1) GPS data processing information and delay formal errors, and 2) inter-comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The GPS IWV data are also homogenized to correct for offsets due to instrumental changes and other unknown factors. The differential homogenization method uses ERA-Interim IWV as a reference. The resulting GPS data are used to document the mean distribution, the global trends and the variability of IWV over the period 1995-2010, and to assess global climate model simulations extracted from the IPCC AR5 archive. Large coherent spatial patterns of moistening and drying are evidenced but significant discrepancies are also seen between GPS measurements, reanalysis and climate models in various regions. In terms of variability, the monthly mean anomalies are inter-compared. The temporal correlation between GPS and the climate model simulations is overall quite small but the spatial variation of the magnitude of the anomalies is globally well simulated. GPS IWV data prove to be useful to validate global climate model simulations and highlight deficiencies in their representation of the water cycle.

Toward server-side, high performance climate change data analytics in the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) eco-system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, Sandro; Williams, Dean; Aloisio, Giovanni

2016-04-01

In many scientific domains such as climate, data is often n-dimensional and requires tools that support specialized data types and primitives to be properly stored, accessed, analysed and visualized. Moreover, new challenges arise in large-scale scenarios and eco-systems where petabytes (PB) of data can be available and data can be distributed and/or replicated (e.g., the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) serving the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, providing access to 2.5PB of data for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Most of the tools currently available for scientific data analysis in the climate domain fail at large scale since they: (1) are desktop based and need the data locally; (2) are sequential, so do not benefit from available multicore/parallel machines; (3) do not provide declarative languages to express scientific data analysis tasks; (4) are domain-specific, which ties their adoption to a specific domain; and (5) do not provide a workflow support, to enable the definition of complex "experiments". The Ophidia project aims at facing most of the challenges highlighted above by providing a big data analytics framework for eScience. Ophidia provides declarative, server-side, and parallel data analysis, jointly with an internal storage model able to efficiently deal with multidimensional data and a hierarchical data organization to manage large data volumes ("datacubes"). The project relies on a strong background of high performance database management and OLAP systems to manage large scientific data sets. It also provides a native workflow management support, to define processing chains and workflows with tens to hundreds of data analytics operators to build real scientific use cases. With regard to interoperability aspects, the talk will present the contribution provided both to the RDA Working Group on Array Databases, and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) Compute Working Team. Also highlighted will be the results of large scale climate model intercomparison data analysis experiments, for example: (1) defined in the context of the EU H2020 INDIGO-DataCloud project; (2) implemented in a real geographically distributed environment involving CMCC (Italy) and LLNL (US) sites; (3) exploiting Ophidia as server-side, parallel analytics engine; and (4) applied on real CMIP5 data sets available through ESGF.

Assessment of androgen receptor agonistic/antagonistic effects on 25 chemicals in household applicants by OECD in vitro stably transfected transcriptional activation assays.

PubMed

Lee, Hee-Seok; Park, Eun-Jung; Han, Songyi; Oh, Gyeong-Yong; Kang, Hui-Seung; Suh, Jin-Hyang; Shin, Min-Ki; Oh, Hyun-Suk; Hwang, Myung-Sil; Moon, Guiim; Koh, Young-Ho; Park, Yooheon; Hong, Jin-Hwan; Koo, Yong Eui

2018-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the androgen receptor (AR) agonistic/antagonistic effects on various chemicals, which are used in household products including cleaning agents and wetted tissues by in vitro OECD test guideline No. 458 (using AR-EcoScreen™ cell line) and the me-too test method (using 22Rv1cell line), which was adopted as OECD project No. 4.99. All chemicals were not determined as AR agonists. However α-dodecyl-ω-hydroxypoly (oxyethylene) and 3-iodo-2-propynyl butylcarbamate have shown a weak AR antagonistic effects with IC 50 values of 2.18 ± 0.12 and 4.26 ± 0.17 μg/ml via binding affinity to AR in only 22Rv1/mouse mammary tumor virus using AR transcriptional activation assay, because of their different cytotoxicity on each applied cell line. This report firstly provides information about agonistic/antagonistic effects against human AR of various chemicals including surfactants and biocides by OECD in vitro stably transfected transcriptional activation assays. However, further in vivo and human model studies are needed to confirm their adverse effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ar-39-Ar-40 Ages of Euerites and the Thermal History of Asteroid 4-Vesta

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogard, Donald D.; Garrison, Daniel H.

2002-01-01

Eucrite meteorites are igneous rocks that derive from a large asteroid, probably 4 Vesta. Prior studies have shown that after eucrites formed, most were subsequently metamorphosed to temperatures up to equal to or greater than 800 C, and much later many were brecciated and heated by large impacts into the parent body surface. The uncommon basaltic, unbrecciated eucrites also formed near the surface but presumably escaped later brecciation, whereas the cumulate eucrites formed at depth where metamorphism may have persisted for a considerable period. To further understand the complex HED parent body thermal history, we determined new Ar-39-Ar-40 ages for nine eucrites classified as basaltic but unbrecciated, six eucrites classified as cumulate, and several basaltic-brecciated eucrites. Relatively precise Ar-Ar ages of two cumulate eucrites (Moama and EET87520) and four unbrecciated eucrites give a tight cluster at 4.48 +/1 0.01 Gyr. Ar-Ar ages of six additional unbrecciated eucrites are consistent with this age, within their larger age uncertainties. In contrast, available literature data on Pb-Pb isochron ages of four cumulate eucrites and one unbrecciated eucrite vary over 4.4-4.515 Gyr, and Sm-147 - Nd-143 isochron ages of four cumulate and three unbrecciated eucrites vary over 4.41-4.55 Gyr. Similar Ar-Ar ages for cumulate and unbrecciated eucrites imply that cumulate eucrites do not have a younger formation age than basaltic eucrites, as previously proposed. Rather, we suggest that these cumulate and unbrecciated eucrites resided at depth where parent body temperatures were sufficiently high to cause the K-Ar and some other chronometers to remain open diffusion systems. From the strong clustering of Ar-Ar ages at approximately 4.48 Gyr, we propose that these meteorites were excavated from depth in a single large impact event approximately 4.48 Gyr ago, which quickly cooled the samples and started the K-Ar chronometer. A large (approximately 460 km) crater postulated to exist on Vesta may be the source of these eucrites and of many smaller asteroids thought to be spectrally or physically associated with Vesta. Some Pb-Pb and Sm-Nd ages of cumulate and unbrecciated eucrites are consistent with the 4.48 Gyr Ar-Ar age, and the few older Pb-Pb and Sm-Nd ages may reflect isotopic closure prior to the large cratering event. One cumulate eucrite gives an Ar-Ar age of 4.25 Gyr; three additional cumulate eucrites give Ar-Ar ages of 3.4-3.7 Gyr; and two unbrecciated eucrites give Ar-Ar ages of approximately 3.55 Gyr. We attribute these younger ages to later impact heating. In addition, we find Ar-Ar impact-reset ages of several brecciated eucrites and eucritic clasts in howardites to fall in the range of 3.5-4.1 Gyr. Among these, Piplia Kalan, the first eucrite to show evidence for extinct 26 Al, was strongly impact heated approximately3.5 Gyr ago. When these data are combined with eucrite Ar-Ar ages in the literature, they confirm the previous suggestion that several large impact heating events occurred on Vesta over the time period approximately 4.1-3.4 Gyr ago. The onset of major impact heating may have occurred at similar times for both Vesta and the Moon, but impact heating appears to have persisted to a somewhat later time on Vesta compared to the Moon.

Ground-based aerosol measurements during CHARMEX/ADRIMED campaign at Granada station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granados-Muñoz, Maria Jose; Bravo-Aranda, Juan Antonio; Navas-Guzman, Francisco; Guerro-Rascado, Juan Luis; Titos, Gloria; Lyamani, Hassan; Valenzuela, Antonio; Cazorla, Alberto; Olmo, Francisco Jose; Mallet, Marc; Alados-Arboledas, Lucas

2015-04-01

In the framework of ChArMEx/ADRIMED (Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment, http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr/; Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region) projects, a field experiment based on in situ and remote sensing measurements from surface and airborne platforms was performed. The ADRIMED project aimed to capture the high complexity of the Mediterranean region by using an integrated approach based on intensive experimental field campaign and spaceborne observations, radiative transfer calculations and climate modelling with Regional Climate Models better adapted than global circulation models. For this purpose, measurements were performed at different surface super-sites (including Granada station) over the Occidental Mediterranean region during summer 2013 for creating an updated database of the physical, chemical, optical properties and the vertical distribution of the major "Mediterranean aerosols". Namely, measurements at Granada station were performed on 16 and 17 July 2013, in coincidence with the overpasses of the ATR aircraft over the station. The instrumentation used for the campaign includes both remote sensing instruments (a multiwavelength Raman lidar and a sun photometer) and in-situ measurements (a nephelometer, a Multi-Angle Absorption Photometer (MAAP), an Aerodynamic particle sizer (APS), a high volume sampler of PM10 and an aethalometer). During the measurement period a mineral dust event was detected, with similar dust load on both days. According to in-situ measurements, the event reached the surface level on 16 of June. Vertically resolved lidar measurements indicated presence of mineral dust layers up to 5 km asl both on 16 and 17 June 2013. Temporal evolution analysis indicated that on 17 June the dust layer decoupled from the boundary layer and disappeared around 14:00 UTC. In addition, lidar and sun-photometer data were used to retrieve volume concentration profiles by means of LIRIC (Lidar-Radiometer Inversion Code algorithm) [Chaikovsky et al., 2008]. The retrieved volume concentration profiles were compared with data from ATR flights above the station at 14:30 UTC on 16 June and 07:30 UTC on 17 June, obtaining in general good agreement in the location of the aerosol layers and discrepancies in the volume concentration values ranging between 15 and 40 µm3/cm3 for the coarse mode. References: Chaikovsky, A., O. Dubovik, et a., (2008), Software package for the retrieval of aerosol microphysical properties in the vertical column using combined lidar/photometer data, Tech. Rep., Institute of Physics, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. Acknowledgments: EARLINET lidar measurements are supported by the 7th Framework Programme project Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure Network (ACTRIS) (grant agreement no. 262254). The field campaign was performed in the framework of work package 4 on aerosol-radiation-climate interactions of the coordinated programme ChArMEx.

To What Extent Can Vegetation Mitigate Greenhouse Warming? A Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, L.; Hall, F.G.; Collatz, G.J.; Tucker, C.J.; Sellers, P.J.; Kumar, A.

2008-01-01

Climate models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that under a 2xCO2 environment, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We postulate that the increase in precipitation associated with the increase in CO2 is also increasing vegetation density, which may already be feeding back onto climate. Including this feedback in a climate model simulation resulted in precipitation and runoff trends consistent with observations and reduced the warming by 0.6OC overland. This unaccounted for missing water may be linked to about 10% of the missing land carbon sink. A recent compilation of outputs from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows projected increases in air temperature, precipitation and river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world in response to doubling CO2 by the end of the century (1). The ensemble mean from these models also indicates that, compared to their respective baselines overland, the global mean of the runoff change would increase faster (8.9% per year) than that of the precipitation (5% per year). We analyze century-scale observed annual runoff time-series (1901-2002) over 9 hydrological units covering large regions of the Eastern United States (Fig.1) compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS)(2). These regions were selected because they are the most forested; the least water-limited and are not under extensive irrigation. We compare these time-series to similar time-series of observed annual precipitation anomalies spanning the period 1900-1995 (3). Both time-series exhibit a positive longterm trend (Fig. 2); however, in contrast to the analysis of (I), these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increase is 5.5 % per year, roughly double the rate of runoff increase of 3.1 % per year.

Nephropathy after administration of iso-osmolar and low-osmolar contrast media: evidence from a network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Lotrionte, Marzia; Thomsen, Henrik S; Romagnoli, Enrico; D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Giordano, Arturo; Frati, Giacomo

2014-03-15

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) may be a severe complication to the administration of iodine-based contrast media for diagnostic or interventional procedure using radiation exposure. Whether there is a difference in nephrotoxic potential between the various agents is uncertain. We aimed to perform a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized trials on iodine-based contrast agents. Randomized trials of low-osmolar or iso-osmolar contrast media were searched in CENTRAL, Google Scholar, MEDLINE/PubMed, and Scopus. Risk of CIN was appraised within a hierarchical Bayesian model computing absolute rates (AR) and odds ratios (OR) with 95% credibility intervals, and probability of being best (Pbest) for each agent. A total of 42 trials (10048 patients) were included focusing on 7 different iodine-based contrast media. Risk of CIN was similarly low with iodixanol (AR=5.7% [2.2%-13.9%], Pbest=18.8%), iomeprol (AR=6.0% [2.2%-15.4%], Pbest=24.8%), iopamidol (AR=6.1% [2.2%-15.5%], Pbest=21.5%), and ioversol (AR=6.0% [2.1%-16.4%], Pbest=31.3%). Conversely, CIN was twice as common with iohexol (AR=11.2% [4.1%-29.5%], Pbest=0.1%) and ioxaglate (AR=11.0% [4.0%-26.9%], Pbest<0.1%), with both proving less safe than iodixanol (respectively OR=2.18 [1.22-3.92] and 2.05 [1.26-3.29]), iomeprol (OR=2.08 [1.04-4.17] and 1.96 [1.06-3.48]) and iopamidol (OR=2.04 [1.15-3.85] and 1.92 [1.06-3.45]). Data on iopromide were less conclusive (AR=6.9% [2.6%-17.1%], Pbest=3.6%). Iodixanol, iomeprol, iopamidol and ioversol are iodine-based contrast media with a similar renal safety profile. Iohexol and ioxaglate have a poorer renal safety profile, whereas further data may be required on iopromide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of aspect ratio and stroke pattern on force generation of a bat-inspired membrane wing.

PubMed

Schunk, Cosima; Swartz, Sharon M; Breuer, Kenneth S

2017-02-06

Aspect ratio (AR) is one parameter used to predict the flight performance of a bat species based on wing shape. Bats with high AR wings are thought to have superior lift-to-drag ratios and are therefore predicted to be able to fly faster or to sustain longer flights. By contrast, bats with lower AR wings are usually thought to exhibit higher manoeuvrability. However, the half-span ARs of most bat wings fall into a narrow range of about 2.5-4.5. Furthermore, these predictions do not take into account the wide variation in flapping motion observed in bats. To examine the influence of different stroke patterns, we measured lift and drag of highly compliant membrane wings with different bat-relevant ARs. A two degrees of freedom shoulder joint allowed for independent control of flapping amplitude and wing sweep. We tested five models with the same variations of stroke patterns, flapping frequencies and wind speed velocities. Our results suggest that within the relatively small AR range of bat wings, AR has no clear effect on force generation. Instead, the generation of lift by our simple model mostly depends on wingbeat frequency, flapping amplitude and freestream velocity; drag is mostly affected by the flapping amplitude.

The influence of aspect ratio and stroke pattern on force generation of a bat-inspired membrane wing

PubMed Central

Swartz, Sharon M.; Breuer, Kenneth S.

2017-01-01

Aspect ratio (AR) is one parameter used to predict the flight performance of a bat species based on wing shape. Bats with high AR wings are thought to have superior lift-to-drag ratios and are therefore predicted to be able to fly faster or to sustain longer flights. By contrast, bats with lower AR wings are usually thought to exhibit higher manoeuvrability. However, the half-span ARs of most bat wings fall into a narrow range of about 2.5–4.5. Furthermore, these predictions do not take into account the wide variation in flapping motion observed in bats. To examine the influence of different stroke patterns, we measured lift and drag of highly compliant membrane wings with different bat-relevant ARs. A two degrees of freedom shoulder joint allowed for independent control of flapping amplitude and wing sweep. We tested five models with the same variations of stroke patterns, flapping frequencies and wind speed velocities. Our results suggest that within the relatively small AR range of bat wings, AR has no clear effect on force generation. Instead, the generation of lift by our simple model mostly depends on wingbeat frequency, flapping amplitude and freestream velocity; drag is mostly affected by the flapping amplitude. PMID:28163875

Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Carbonate Saturation State on the Mississippi River Dominated Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W. J.; Cai, W. J.; Wang, Y.; Hu, X.

2016-02-01

Carbonate saturation state (ΩAr) serves as an index of ocean acidification; however, its variation on river-dominated continental shelves remains unclear. Samples of total alkalinity (TA), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and nutrients were taken from nine cruises on the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River dominated continental shelf during 2006 to 2010. The distributions of TA and DIC on sea surface generally follow salinity distributions, i.e. low on the inner shelf and high on the outer shelf. The riverine calcium concentration was considered to calculate ΩAr and the result showed high ΩAr (4 to 6) along the axis of the river plume trajectory, moderate ( 4) on the surface open gulf, and low (< 3) in the deep gulf. Strong seasonal variation of ΩAr was observed in the river endmembers, high in spring and low in winter. The ΩAr variation was dominated by mixing when salinities < 18. In waters of higher salinities, deficits of DIC from the conservative mixing lines were positively correlated to deficits of NO3 and the slope of regression line was close to the Redfield ratio after removing data affected by unbalanced Si and N. The fact that ΩAr was highly correlated to ΔDIC suggests that ΩAr was dominated by biological activity. Finally, model simulations suggest that the effect of increasing riverine TA (increasing ΩAr in low salinities zone) and the effect of decreasing riverine nitrate flux (decreasing ΩAr in middle-to-high salinities zone) on ΩAr might compensate each other in this study area.

Vibrational dynamics of aniline(Ar)1 and aniline(CH4)1 clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nimlos, M. R.; Young, M. A.; Bernstein, E. R.; Kelley, D. F.

1989-11-01

The first excited electronic state (S1) vibrational dynamics of aniline(Ar)1 and aniline(CH4)1 van der Waals (vdW) clusters have been studied using molecular jet and time resolved emission spectroscopic techniques. The rates of intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR) and vibrational predissociation (VP) as functions of vibrational energy are reported for both clusters. For vibrational energy in excess of the cluster binding energy, both clusters are observed to dissociate. The dispersed emission spectra of these clusters demonstrate that aniline(Ar)1 dissociates to all energetically accessible bare molecule states and that aniline(CH4)1 dissociates selectively to only the bare molecule vibrationless state. The emission kinetics show that in the aniline(Ar)1 case, the initially excited states have nanosecond lifetimes, and intermediate cluster states have very short lifetimes. In contrast, the initially excited aniline(CH4)1 states and other intermediate vibrationally excited cluster states are very short lived (<100 ps), and the intermediate cluster 00 state is observed. These results can be understood semiquantitatively in terms of an overall serial IVR/VP mechanism which consists of the following: (1) the rates of chromophore to vdW mode IVR are given by Fermi's golden rule, and the density of vdW vibrational states is the most important factor in determining the relative [aniline(Ar)1 vs aniline(CH4)1] rates of IVR; (2) IVR among the vdW modes is rapid; and (3) VP rates can be calculated by a restricted vdW mode phase space Rice-Ramsberger-Kassel-Marcus theory. Since the density of vdW states is three orders of magnitude greater for aniline(CH4)1 than aniline(Ar)1 at 700 cm-1, the model predicts that IVR is slow and rate limiting in aniline(Ar)1, whereas VP is slow and rate limiting in aniline(CH4)1. The agreement of these predictions with the experimental results is very good and is discussed in detail.

Climate Proxy Signals in the Plio-Pleistocene Chemeron and Miocene Lukeino Formations, Baringo Basin, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deino, A. L.; Kingston, J.; Hill, A.; Wilson, K. E.; Edgar, R.; Goble, E.

2009-12-01

The Chemeron Formation is a hominin-bearing, highly fossiliferous sequence of dominantly alluvial fan and fluvial sedimentary rocks, with climatically significant lacustrine intercalations, exposed within the Tugen Hills of the central Kenya Rift. As we have previously documented (Deino et al., 2006; Kingston et al., 2007), the formation contains a sequence of five 3-7 m thick diatomites in the interval 2.7-2.5 Ma that record, at precessional intervals, the repeated occurrence of deep-lake conditions in the Baringo Basin. These lakes appear abruptly, persist for only about 8,000 years of the ~23,000 year precessional cycle, and recede quickly. The oscillations have been tied to marine core and Mediterranean sapropel sections based on high-precision 40Ar/39Ar dating of K-feldspar in tuffs interspersed through the sequence, and paleomagnetic reversal stratigraphy. Ongoing paleontological investigations in the Tugen Hills are addressing the dynamics of high-resolution faunal and ecological change directly related to the fluctuating climatic background, including its effect on hominin evolution. This specific interval in the Baringo Basin/Tugen Hills has been identified by the Hominid Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project Steering Committee as one of five target areas in East Africa for high-resolution coring studies. The drilling project is currently moving forward to the funding agency proposal development phase. Further exploration in the Tugen Hills has revealed a similar, older sequence of rhythmic alternating diatomites and non-lacustrine sediments in nearby drainages. These beds may represent a precessionally driven climate response possibly associated with the next older orbital eccentricity maximum from ~3.2-2.9 Ma. Characterization of the lithostratigraphy of this area is in progress, and samples of intercalated tuff beds suitable for high-precision single-crystal 40Ar/39Ar dating have been acquired. We have also extended our search for climate proxy records in the Tugen Hills to diatomaceous sequences between ~8-6 Ma that would specifically implicate precessional control as a pervasive factor in the formation of rift lake systems and by inference climate. Reconnaissance in summer ’09 of these older strata have revealed extensive lacustrine deposits indicating that this portion of the rift was inundated by major lake systems during the upper Miocene.

ID4 promotes AR expression and blocks tumorigenicity of PC3 prostate cancer cells.

PubMed

Komaragiri, Shravan Kumar; Bostanthirige, Dhanushka H; Morton, Derrick J; Patel, Divya; Joshi, Jugal; Upadhyay, Sunil; Chaudhary, Jaideep

2016-09-09

Deregulation of tumor suppressor genes is associated with tumorigenesis and the development of cancer. In prostate cancer, ID4 is epigenetically silenced and acts as a tumor suppressor. In normal prostate epithelial cells, ID4 collaborates with androgen receptor (AR) and p53 to exert its tumor suppressor activity. Previous studies have shown that ID4 promotes tumor suppressive function of AR whereas loss of ID4 results in tumor promoter activity of AR. Previous study from our lab showed that ectopic ID4 expression in DU145 attenuates proliferation and promotes AR expression suggesting that ID4 dependent AR activity is tumor suppressive. In this study, we examined the effect of ectopic expression of ID4 on highly malignant prostate cancer cell, PC3. Here we show that stable overexpression of ID4 in PC3 cells leads to increased apoptosis and decreased cell proliferation and migration. In addition, in vivo studies showed a decrease in tumor size and volume of ID4 overexpressing PC3 cells, in nude mice. At the molecular level, these changes were associated with increased androgen receptor (AR), p21, and AR dependent FKBP51 expression. At the mechanistic level, ID4 may regulate the expression or function of AR through specific but yet unknown AR co-regulators that may determine the final outcome of AR function. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tréguer, Paul; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; L'Helguen, Stéphane; Morin, Pascal; Bozec, Yann; Rimmelin-Maury, Peggy; Czamanski, Marie; Grossteffan, Emilie; Cariou, Thierry; Répécaud, Michel; Quéméner, Loic

2014-11-01

There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at about 48°N over the period 1998-2013 using (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity and (3) nutrient concentration observations for two coastal sites located at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, (4) river discharges of the major tributaries close to these two sites and (5) regional and local precipitation data over the region of interest. Focusing on the winter months, we characterize the physical and chemical variability of these coastal waters and document changes in both precipitation and river runoffs. Our study reveals that variability in coastal waters is connected to the large-scale North Atlantic atmospheric circulation but is also partly explained by local river influences. Indeed, while the NAO is strongly related to changes in sea surface temperature at the Brest and Roscoff sites, the EAP and the AR have a major influence on precipitations, which in turn modulate river discharges that impact sea surface salinity at the scale of the two coastal stations.

Investigation on the effect of nonlinear processes on similarity law in high-pressure argon discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Yangyang; Parsey, Guy M.; Verboncoeur, John P.; Christlieb, Andrew J.

2017-11-01

In this paper, the effect of nonlinear processes (such as three-body collisions and stepwise ionizations) on the similarity law in high-pressure argon discharges has been studied by the use of the Kinetic Global Model framework. In the discharge model, the ground state argon atoms (Ar), electrons (e), atom ions (Ar+), molecular ions (Ar2+), and fourteen argon excited levels Ar*(4s and 4p) are considered. The steady-state electron and ion densities are obtained with nonlinear processes included and excluded in the designed models, respectively. It is found that in similar gas gaps, keeping the product of gas pressure and linear dimension unchanged, with the nonlinear processes included, the normalized density relations deviate from the similarity relations gradually as the scale-up factor decreases. Without the nonlinear processes, the parameter relations are in good agreement with the similarity law predictions. Furthermore, the pressure and the dimension effects are also investigated separately with and without the nonlinear processes. It is shown that the gas pressure effect on the results is less obvious than the dimension effect. Without the nonlinear processes, the pressure and the dimension effects could be estimated from one to the other based on the similarity relations.

Continuously on-­going regional climate hindcast simulations for impact applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Ivonne; Piringer, Martin; Kaufmann, Hildegard; Knauder, Werner; Resch, Gernot; Andre, Konrad

2017-04-01

Observational data for e.g. temperature, precipitation, radiation, or wind are often used as meteorological forcing for different impact models, like e.g. crop models, urban models, economic models and energy system models. To assess a climate signal, the time period covered by the observation is often too short, they have gaps in between, and are inhomogeneous over time, due to changes in the measurements itself or in the near surrounding. Thus output from global and regional climate models can close the gap and provide homogeneous and physically consistent time series of meteorological parameters. CORDEX evaluation runs performed for the IPCC-AR5 provide a good base for the regional scale. However, with respect to climate services, continuously on-going hindcast simulations are required for regularly updated applications. The Climate Research group at the national Austrian weather service, ZAMG, is focusing on high mountain regions and, especially on the Alps. The hindcast-simulation performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is forced by ERAinterim and optimized for the Alpine Region. The simulation available for the period of 1979-2015 in a spatial resolution of about 10km is prolonged ongoing and fullfils the customer's needs with respect of output variables, levels, intervals and statistical measures. One of the main tasks is to capture strong precipitation events which often occur during summer when low pressure systems develop over the Golf of Genoa, moving to the Northeast. This leads to floods and landslide events in Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. Such events are not sufficiently represented in the CORDEX-evaluation runs. ZAMG use high quality gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Alpine Region (1-6km) to evaluate the model performance. Data is provided e.g. to hydrological modellers (high water, low water), but also to assess icing capability of infrastructure or the calculation the separation distances between livestock farming and residential area.

Probabilistic forecast of long-term climate changes under different RCP scenarios.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, Andrei; Libardoni, Alex; Forest, Chris; Monier, Erwan

2014-05-01

Long-term response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing was investigated with the MIT Earth System Model of intermediate complexity version 2.2 (MESM2.2). The MESM2.2 consists of a 2D (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled to an anomaly diffusing ocean model. Climate sensitivity of the MESM can be varied using a cloud adjustment technique and rate of oceanic heat uptake can be varied by changing effective diffusion coefficient. An ensemble of four hundred simulations was carried out for the period 1860-2005 using historical forcing. Values of climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the aerosol forcing were drawn from the Libardoni and Forest (2013) distribution presented in the IPCC AR5. A 400-member ensemble was carried out for each of four different RCP scenarios from the year 2006 to the year 2500. By the end of the 21st century (2081-2100), the ensemble mean of surface air temperature increases, relative to 1986-2005 period, by 1.2, 1.8, 2.2 and 3.3oC for RCP26, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. Corresponding numbers for the ensemble of the CMPI5 models are 1.0, 1.8, 2.2 and 3.7oC. In spite of the forcing being fixed beyond year 2150 for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 and beyond 2250 for RCP8.5, surface air temperature keeps rising until the end of 25th century under these scenarios. The upper bound of the 90% probability interval increases significantly more than the mean. For the RCP4.5 scenario, the mean value of possible SAT change increases by 1.6oC from the end of the 21st century to the end of the 25th century, while the value of the 95th percentile increases by 3.2oC. Corresponding numbers for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 are 3.6 and 10.2oC for the medians and 7.0 and 14.5oC for the 95th percentiles, respectively. Such changes in the shape of probability distributions with time indicate an increase in the probability that surface warming will exceed a given value. For example, the probability of exceeding 3oC warming under the RCP4.5 scenario increases from 2.5% at the end of 21st century to 32% and 50% at the end of 23rd and 25th centuries, respectively. For the RCP2.6 scenario, in which radiative forcing peaks in the year 2070 before decreasing back to the 1990s level by the year 2300, the ensemble mean surface air temperature is still about 0.5oC above present at the end of the simulation. Obtained results show that in spite of large differences in radiative forcing between different RCP scenarios, uncertainties in the climate system characteristics defining climate system response make a significant contribution into overall uncertainty in possible climate change during the next few centuries. Comparison with simulations carried under SRES scenarios also will be presented.

Assessment of the aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanap, S. D.; Ayantika, D. C.; Pandithurai, G.; Niranjan, K.

2014-04-01

This paper examines the aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent as represented in 21 models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, wherein model simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) is compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite observations. The objective of the study is to provide an assessment of the capability of various global models, participating in CMIP5 project, in capturing the realistic spatial and temporal distribution of aerosol species over the Indian subcontinent. Results from our analysis show that majority of the CMIP5 models (excepting HADGEM2-ES, HADGEM2-CC) seriously underestimates the spatio-temporal variability of aerosol species over the Indian subcontinent, in particular over Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). Since IGP region is dominated by anthropogenic activities, high population density, and wind driven transport of dust and other aerosol species, MODIS observations reveal high AOD values over this region. Though the representation of black carbon (BC) loading in many models is fairly good, the dust loading is observed to be significantly low in majority of the models. The presence of pronounced dust activity over northern India and dust being one of the major constituent of aerosol species, the biases in dust loading has a great impact on the AOD of that region. We found that considerable biases in simulating the 850 hPa wind field (which plays important role in transport of dust from adjacent deserts) would be the possible reason for poor representation of dust AOD and in turn total AOD over Indian region in CMIP5 models. In addition, aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) underestimated/overestimated in most of the models. However, spatial distribution of ARF in multi-model ensemble mean is comparable reasonably well with observations with bias in magnitudes. This analysis emphasizes the fundamental need to improve the representation of aerosol species in current state of the art climate models. As reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4), the level of scientific understanding (LOSU) of climatic impact of aerosols is medium-low. For better understanding of short and long term implications of changing concentrations of aerosol species on climate, it is imperative to have a realistic representation of aerosol distribution over regions with high aerosol loading.

The AhR Ligand, TCDD, Regulates Androgen Receptor Activity Differently in Androgen-Sensitive versus Castration-Resistant Human Prostate Cancer Cells.

PubMed

Ghotbaddini, Maryam; Powell, Joann B

2015-07-06

The reported biological effects of TCDD include induction of drug metabolizing enzymes, wasting syndrome and tumor promotion. TCDD elicits most of its effects through binding the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). TCDD induced degradation of AhR has been widely reported and requires ubiquitination of the protein. The rapid depletion of AhR following TCDD activation serves as a mechanism to modulate AhR mediated gene induction. In addition to inducing AhR degradation, TCDD has been reported to induce degradation of hormone receptors. The studies reported here, evaluate the effect of TCDD exposure on androgen receptor (AR) expression and activity in androgen-sensitive LNCaP and castration-resistant C4-2 prostate cancer cells. Our results show that TCDD exposure does not induce AhR or AR degradation in C4-2 cells. However, both AhR and AR are degraded in LNCaP cells following TCDD exposure. In addition, TCDD enhances AR phosphorylation and induces expression of AR responsive genes in LNCaP cells. Our data reveals that TCDD effect on AR expression and activity differs in androgen-sensitive and castration-resistant prostate cancer cell models.

The 40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar dating of lavas from the Hilo 1-km core hole, Hawaii Scientific Drilling Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharp, W.D.; Turrin, B.D.; Renne, P.R.; Lanphere, M.A.

1996-01-01

Mauna Kea lava flows cored in the HilIo hole range in age from <200 ka to about 400 ka based on 40Ar/39Ar incremental heating and K-Ar analyses of 16 groundmass samples and one coexisting plagioclase. The lavas, all subaerially deposited, include a lower section consisting only of tholeiitic basalts and an upper section of interbedded alkalic, transitional tholeiitic, and tholeiitic basalts. The lower section has yielded predominantly complex, discordant 40Ar/39Ar age spectra that result from mobility of 40Ar and perhaps K, the presence of excess 40Ar, and redistribution of 39Ar by recoil. Comparison of K-Ar ages with 40Ar/39Ar integrated ages indicates that some of these samples have also lost 39Ar. Nevertheless, two plateau ages of 391 ?? 40 and 400 ?? 26 ka from deep in the hole, combined with data from the upper section, show that the tholeiitic section accumulated at an average rate of about 7 to 8 m/kyr and has an mean recurrence interval of 0.5 kyr/flow unit. Samples from the upper section yield relatively precise 40Ar/39Ar plateau and isotope correlation ages of 326 ?? 23, 241 ?? 5, 232 ?? 4, and 199 ?? 9 ka for depths of -415.7 m to -299.2 m. Within their uncertainty, these ages define a linear relationship with depth, with an average accumulation rate of 0.9 m/kyr and an average recurrence interval of 4.8 kyr/flow unit. The top of the Mauna Kea sequence at -280 m must be older than the plateau age of 132 ?? 32 ka, obtained for the basal Mauna Loa flow in the corehole. The upward decrease in lava accumulation rate is a consequence of the decreasing magma supply available to Mauna Kea as it rode the Pacific plate away from its magma source, the Hawaiian mantle plume. The age-depth relation in the core hole may be used to test and refine models that relate the growth of Mauna Kea to the thermal and compositional structure of the mantle plume.

Mixture of autoregressive modeling orders and its implication on single trial EEG classification

PubMed Central

Atyabi, Adham; Shic, Frederick; Naples, Adam

2016-01-01

Autoregressive (AR) models are of commonly utilized feature types in Electroencephalogram (EEG) studies due to offering better resolution, smoother spectra and being applicable to short segments of data. Identifying correct AR’s modeling order is an open challenge. Lower model orders poorly represent the signal while higher orders increase noise. Conventional methods for estimating modeling order includes Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Final Prediction Error (FPE). This article assesses the hypothesis that appropriate mixture of multiple AR orders is likely to better represent the true signal compared to any single order. Better spectral representation of underlying EEG patterns can increase utility of AR features in Brain Computer Interface (BCI) systems by increasing timely & correctly responsiveness of such systems to operator’s thoughts. Two mechanisms of Evolutionary-based fusion and Ensemble-based mixture are utilized for identifying such appropriate mixture of modeling orders. The classification performance of the resultant AR-mixtures are assessed against several conventional methods utilized by the community including 1) A well-known set of commonly used orders suggested by the literature, 2) conventional order estimation approaches (e.g., AIC, BIC and FPE), 3) blind mixture of AR features originated from a range of well-known orders. Five datasets from BCI competition III that contain 2, 3 and 4 motor imagery tasks are considered for the assessment. The results indicate superiority of Ensemble-based modeling order mixture and evolutionary-based order fusion methods within all datasets. PMID:28740331

Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejas, S.; Cai, M.

2012-12-01

Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.

AR4VI: AR as an Accessibility Tool for People with Visual Impairments

PubMed Central

Coughlan, James M.; Miele, Joshua

2017-01-01

Although AR technology has been largely dominated by visual media, a number of AR tools using both visual and auditory feedback have been developed specifically to assist people with low vision or blindness – an application domain that we term Augmented Reality for Visual Impairment (AR4VI). We describe two AR4VI tools developed at Smith-Kettlewell, as well as a number of pre-existing examples. We emphasize that AR4VI is a powerful tool with the potential to remove or significantly reduce a range of accessibility barriers. Rather than being restricted to use by people with visual impairments, AR4VI is a compelling universal design approach offering benefits for mainstream applications as well. PMID:29303163

AR4VI: AR as an Accessibility Tool for People with Visual Impairments.

PubMed

Coughlan, James M; Miele, Joshua

2017-10-01

Although AR technology has been largely dominated by visual media, a number of AR tools using both visual and auditory feedback have been developed specifically to assist people with low vision or blindness - an application domain that we term Augmented Reality for Visual Impairment (AR4VI). We describe two AR4VI tools developed at Smith-Kettlewell, as well as a number of pre-existing examples. We emphasize that AR4VI is a powerful tool with the potential to remove or significantly reduce a range of accessibility barriers. Rather than being restricted to use by people with visual impairments, AR4VI is a compelling universal design approach offering benefits for mainstream applications as well.

Thermal and impact history of the H chondrite parent asteroid during metamorphism: Constraints from metallic Fe-Ni

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Edward R. D.; Krot, Tatiana V.; Goldstein, Joseph I.; Wakita, Shigeru

2014-07-01

We have studied cloudy taenite, metallographic cooling rates, and shock effects in 30 H3-6 chondrites to elucidate the thermal and early impact history of the H chondrite parent body. We focused on H chondrites with old Ar-Ar ages (>4.4 Gyr) and unshocked and mildly shocked H chondrites, as strongly shocked chondrites with such old ages are very rare. Cooling rates for most H chondrites at 500 °C are 10-50 °C/Myr and do not decrease systematically with increasing petrologic type as predicted by the onion-shell model in which types 3-5 are arranged in concentric layers around a type 6 core. Some type 4 chondrites cooled slower than some type 6 chondrites and type 3 chondrites did not cool faster than other types, contrary to the onion-shell model. Cloudy taenite particle sizes, which range from 40 to 120 nm, are inversely correlated with metallographic cooling rates and show that the latter were not compromised by shock heating. The three H4 chondrites that were used to develop the onion-shell model, Ste. Marguerite, Beaver Creek, and Forest Vale, cooled through 500 °C at ⩾5000 °C/Myr. Our thermal modeling shows that these rates are 50× higher than could be achieved in a body that was heated by 26Al and cooled without disturbance by impact. Published Ar-Ar ages do not decrease systematically with increasing petrologic type but do correlate inversely with cloudy taenite particle size suggesting that impact mixing decreased during metamorphism. Metal and silicate compositions in regolith breccias show that impacts mixed material after metamorphism without causing significant heating. Impacts during metamorphism created Portales Valley and two other H6 chondrites with large metallic veins, excavated the fast-cooled H4 chondrites around 3-4 Myr after accretion, and mixed petrologic types. Metallographic data do not require catastrophic disruption by impact during cooling.

Evaluation of hydrological cycle in the major European midlatitude river basins in the frame of the CORDEX project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgievski, Goran; Keuler, Klaus

2013-04-01

Water supply and its potential to increase social, economic and environmental risks are among the most critical challenges for the upcoming decades. Therefore, the assessment of the reliability of regional climate models (RCMs) to represent present-day hydrological balance of river basins is one of the most challenging tasks with high priority for climate modelling in order to estimate range of possible socio-economic impacts of the climate change. However, previous work in the frame of 4th IPCC AR and corresponding regional downscaling experiments (with focus on Europe and Danube river basin) showed that even the meteorological re-analyses provide unreliable data set for evaluations of climate model performance. Furthermore, large discrepancies among the RCMs are caused by internal model deficiencies (for example: systematic errors in dynamics, land-soil parameterizations, large-scale condensation and convection schemes), and in spite of higher resolution RCMs do not always improve much the results from GCMs, but even deteriorate it in some cases. All that has a consequence that capturing impact of climate change on hydrological cycle is not an easy task. Here we present state of the art of RCMs in the frame of the CORDEX project for Europe. First analysis shows again that even the up to date ERA-INTERIM re-analysis is not reliable for evaluation of hydrological cycle in major European midlatitude river basins (Seine, Rhine, Elbe, Oder, Vistula, Danube, Po, Rhone, Garonne and Ebro). Therefore, terrestrial water storage, a quasi observed parameter which is a combination of river discharge (from Global River Discharge Centre data set) and atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA-INTERIM re-analysis, is used for verification. It shows qualitatively good agreement with COSMO-CLM (CCLM) regional climate simulation (abbreviated CCLM_eval) at 0.11 degrees horizontal resolution forced by ERA-INTERIM re-analysis. Furthermore, intercomparison of terrestrial water storage seasonal cycle averaged in Danube river basin for the ten years (1990-1999) overlapping period between CCLM historical experiment (abbreviated CCLM_hist), its forcing GCM (MPI-ESM-LR, here abbreviated MPI_hist) and CCLM_eval is performed. It reveals that CCLM_hist simulation is in better agreement with quasi observed terrestrial water storage than MPI_hist and CCLM_eval. This result seems promising for the assessment of impact of climate change on hydrological cycle. However, evaluation of the whole ensemble of regional climate downscaling experiments participated in CORDEX-Europe project would provide a more robust estimate.

Progress toward Consensus Estimates of Regional Glacier Mass Balances for IPCC AR5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arendt, A. A.; Gardner, A. S.; Cogley, J. G.

2011-12-01

Glaciers are potentially large contributors to rising sea level. Since the last IPCC report in 2007 (AR4), there has been a widespread increase in the use of geodetic observations from satellite and airborne platforms to complement field observations of glacier mass balance, as well as significant improvements in the global glacier inventory. Here we summarize our ongoing efforts to integrate data from multiple sources to arrive at a consensus estimate for each region, and to quantify uncertainties in those estimates. We will use examples from Alaska to illustrate methods for combining Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), elevation differencing and field observations into a single time series with related uncertainty estimates. We will pay particular attention to reconciling discrepancies between GRACE estimates from multiple processing centers. We will also investigate the extent to which improvements in the glacier inventory affect the accuracy of our regional mass balances.

Identification of key binding site residues of MCT1 for AR-C155858 reveals the molecular basis of its isoform selectivity.

PubMed

Nancolas, Bethany; Sessions, Richard B; Halestrap, Andrew P

2015-02-15

The proton-linked monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) are required for lactic acid transport into and out of all mammalian cells. Thus, they play an essential role in tumour cells that are usually highly glycolytic and are promising targets for anti-cancer drugs. AR-C155858 is a potent MCT1 inhibitor (Ki ~2 nM) that also inhibits MCT2 when associated with basigin but not MCT4. Previous work [Ovens, M.J. et al. (2010) Biochem. J. 425, 523-530] revealed that AR-C155858 binding to MCT1 occurs from the intracellular side and involves transmembrane helices (TMs) 7-10. In the present paper, we generate a molecular model of MCT4 based on our previous models of MCT1 and identify residues in the intracellular substrate-binding cavity that differ significantly between MCT4 and MCT1/MCT2 and so might account for differences in inhibitor binding. We tested their involvement using site-directed mutagenesis (SDM) of MCT1 to change residues individually or in combination with their MCT4 equivalent and determined inhibitor sensitivity following expression in Xenopus oocytes. Phe360 and Ser364 were identified as important for AR-C155858 binding with the F360Y/S364G mutant exhibiting >100-fold reduction in inhibitor sensitivity. To refine the binding site further, we used molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and additional SDM. This approach implicated six more residues whose involvement was confirmed by both transport studies and [3H]-AR-C155858 binding to oocyte membranes. Taken together, our data imply that Asn147, Arg306 and Ser364 are important for directing AR-C155858 to its final binding site which involves interaction of the inhibitor with Lys38, Asp302 and Phe360 (residues that also play key roles in the translocation cycle) and also Leu274 and Ser278.

Identification of key binding site residues of MCT1 for AR-C155858 reveals the molecular basis of its isoform selectivity

PubMed Central

Nancolas, Bethany; Sessions, Richard B.; Halestrap, Andrew P.

2014-01-01

The proton-linked monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) are required for lactic acid transport into and out of all mammalian cells. Thus, they play an essential role in tumour cells that are usually highly glycolytic and are promising targets for anti-cancer drugs. AR-C155858 is a potent MCT1 inhibitor (Ki ~2 nM) that also inhibits MCT2 when associated with basigin but not MCT4. Previous work [Ovens, M.J. et al. (2010) Biochem. J. 425, 523–530] revealed that AR-C155858 binding to MCT1 occurs from the intracellular side and involves transmembrane helices (TMs) 7–10. In the present paper, we generate a molecular model of MCT4 based on our previous models of MCT1 and identify residues in the intracellular substrate-binding cavity that differ significantly between MCT4 and MCT1/MCT2 and so might account for differences in inhibitor binding. We tested their involvement using site-directed mutagenesis (SDM) of MCT1 to change residues individually or in combination with their MCT4 equivalent and determined inhibitor sensitivity following expression in Xenopus oocytes. Phe360 and Ser364 were identified as important for AR-C155858 binding with the F360Y/S364G mutant exhibiting >100-fold reduction in inhibitor sensitivity. To refine the binding site further, we used molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and additional SDM. This approach implicated six more residues whose involvement was confirmed by both transport studies and [3H]-AR-C155858 binding to oocyte membranes. Taken together, our data imply that Asn147, Arg306 and Ser364 are important for directing AR-C155858 to its final binding site which involves interaction of the inhibitor with Lys38, Asp302 and Phe360 (residues that also play key roles in the translocation cycle) and also Leu274 and Ser278. PMID:25437897

Breast-feeding, aeroallergen sensitization, and environmental exposures during infancy are determinants of childhood allergic rhinitis.

PubMed

Codispoti, Christopher D; Levin, Linda; LeMasters, Grace K; Ryan, Patrick; Reponen, Tiina; Villareal, Manuel; Burkle, Jeff; Stanforth, Sherry; Lockey, James E; Khurana Hershey, Gurjit K; Bernstein, David I

2010-05-01

Infant predictors of early childhood allergic rhinitis (AR) are poorly understood. We sought to identify environmental exposures and host factors during infancy that predict AR at age 3 years. High-risk children from greater Cincinnati were followed annually from ages 1 to 3 years. AR was defined as sneezing, runny, or blocked nose in the prior 12 months and a positive skin prick test (SPT) response to 1 or more aeroallergens. Environmental and standardized medical questionnaires determined exposures and clinical outcomes. Primary activity area dust samples were analyzed for house dust endotoxin (HDE) and (1-3)-beta-D-glucan. Fine particulate matter sampled at 27 monitoring stations was used to estimate personal elemental carbon attributable to traffic exposure by using a land-use regression model. Of 361 children in this analysis, 116 had AR, and 245 were nonatopic and nonsymptomatic. Prolonged breast-feeding in African American children (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.8; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9) and multiple children in the home during infancy was protective against AR (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8). Food SPT response positivity and tree SPT response positivity in infancy increased the risk of AR at age 3 years (aOR of 4.4 [95% CI, 2.1-9.2] and aOR of 6.8 [95% CI, 2.5-18.7], respectively). HDE exposure was associated with AR; the effect was dependent on exposure level. Elemental carbon attributable to traffic and environmental tobacco smoke exposure showed no effect on AR. Prolonged breast-feeding in African American subjects and multiple children in the home during infancy reduced the risk of AR at age 3 years. SPT response positivity to food and tree allergens enhanced risk. The HDE effect on AR was related to exposure. Copyright 2010 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Formation Ages of the Apollo 16 Regolith Breccias: Implications for Accessing the Bombardment History of the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joy, K. H.; Kring, D. A.; Bogard, D. D.; Zolensky, M. E.; McKay, D. S.

2010-01-01

Regolith breccias are lithified samples of the regolith that have been fused together by impact shock and thermal metamorphism. In lunar regolith samples, the ratio of trapped 40Ar/36Ar is a useful indicator of antiquity and can be used to model the closure age/lifithication event of the regolith (i.e. the apparent time when Ar became trapped [1]), thus providing an important insight into specific times when that regolith was interacting with the the dynamic inner solar system space environment [2-4].

Ar-40/Ar-39 and U-Th-Pb dating of separated clasts from the Abee E4 chondrite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogard, D. D.; Unruh, D. M.; Tatsumoto, M.

1983-01-01

Ar-40/Ar-39 and U-Th-Pb are investigated for three clasts from the Abee (E4) enstatite chondrite, yielding Ar-40/Ar-39 plateau ages (and/or maximum ages) of 4.5 Gy, while two of the clasts give average ages of 4.4 Gy. The 4.4-4.5 Gy range does not resolve possible age differences among the clasts. The U-Th-Pb data are consistent with the interpretation that initial clast formation occurred 4.58 Gy ago, and that the clasts have since remained closed systems which have been contaminated with terrestrial Pb. The thermal history of Abee deduced from Ar data seems consistent with that deduced from magnetic data, suggesting that various Abee components experienced separate histories until brecciation no later than 4.4 Gy ago, experiencing no significant subsequent heating.

Regional services in a research context: USDA Climate Hubs in the USDA Agricultural Research Service

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ten USDA Climate Hubs were created in 2014 to develop and deliver science-based, region-specific information and technologies to better enable agricultural decision-making and management. Of these ten Hubs, half are administered by USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS), an agency with historica...

Noble gas partitioning behavior in the Sleipner Vest hydrocarbon field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barry, P. H.; Lawson, M.; Warr, O.; Mabry, J.; Byrne, D. J.; Meurer, W. P.; Ballentine, C. J.

2015-12-01

Noble gases are chemically inert and variably soluble in crustal fluids. They are primarily introduced into hydrocarbon reservoirs through exchange with formation waters, and can be used to assess migration pathways, mechanisms and reservoir storage. Of particular interest is the role groundwater plays in hydrocarbon transport, which is reflected in hydrocarbon-water volume ratios. We present compositional, stable isotope and noble gas isotope and abundance data from the Sleipner Vest field, in the Norwegian North Sea. Sleipner gases are generated from primary cracking of kerogen and the thermal cracking of oil, sourced from type II marine source, with relatively homogeneous maturities and a range in vitrinite reflectance (1.2-1.7%). Gases are hosted in the lower shoreface sandstones of the Jurassic Hugin formation, which is sealed by the Jurassic Upper Draupne and Heather formations. Gases are composed of N2 (0.6-0.9%), CO2 (5.4-15.3%) and hydrocarbons (69-80%). Helium isotopes (3He/4He) are radiogenic and range from 0.065 to 0.116 RA, showing a small mantle contribution, consistent with Ne isotopes (20Ne/22Ne from 9.70-9.91; 21Ne/22Ne from 0.0290-0.0344) and Ar isotopes (40Ar/36Ar from 315-489). 20Ne/36Ar, 84Kr/36Ar and 132Xe/36Ar values are systematically higher relative to air saturated water ratios. These data are discussed within the framework of several conceptual models: i) Total gas-stripping model, which defines the minimum volume of water to have interacted with the hydrocarbon phase; ii) Equilibrium model, assuming simple equilibration between groundwater and hydrocarbon phase at reservoir P,T and salinity; and iii) Open and closed system gas-stripping models. Using Ne-Ar, we estimate gas-water ratios for the Sleipner system of 0.02-0.09, which compare with geologic gas-water estimates of ~0.24, and suggest more groundwater interaction than a static system estimate. Kr and Xe show evidence for an additional source or process involving oil or sediments.

Factors influencing variation of bulk milk antibiotic residue occurrence, somatic cell count, and total bacterial count in dairy sheep flocks.

PubMed

Gonzalo, C; Carriedo, J A; García-Jimeno, M C; Pérez-Bilbao, M; de la Fuente, L F

2010-04-01

To study the variations of bulk tank milk variables in dairy ewe flocks and to identify the main target practices and flock groups to improve milk quality and safety, a total of 71,228 records of antibiotic residue (AR) and milk yield and 68,781 records of somatic cell count (SCC) and total bacterial count (TBC) were obtained over 5 yr from the same 209 dairy ewe flocks of the Assaf breed belonging to the Consortium for Ovine Promotion of Castilla-León (Spain). Based on a logistic regression model, year, month, semester, SCC, TBC, dry therapy, and milk yield significantly contributed to AR variation. High SCC was associated with increased AR violations. When antibiotic dry therapy was implemented, AR occurrence was higher than when this practice was not used. A polynomial monthly distribution throughout the year was observed for AR occurrence; the highest values were in autumn, coinciding with low milk yields per flock. Yearly occurrences drastically diminished from 2004 (1.36%) to 2008 (0.30%), probably as a result of effective educational programs. The mixed-model ANOVA of factors influencing variation in SCC and TBC indicated that year, month, AR, dry therapy group, milking type, and year interactions were significant variation factors for SCC and TBC; mathematical model accounted for 74.1 and 35.4% of total variance for each variable, respectively. Differences in management and hygiene practice caused significant SCC and TBC variations among flocks and within flocks throughout the 5-yr study. Over time, continuously dry treated flocks showed lower logSCC (5.80) and logTBC (4.92) than untreated (6.10 and 5.18, respectively) or discontinuously dry treated (6.01 and 5.05, respectively) flocks. Continuously dry treated flocks had lower AR occurrences than did discontinuously dry treated flocks. As a whole, AR occurrence and SCC and TBC bulk tank milk variables can be used for monitoring mammary health and milk hygiene and safety in dairy sheep throughout time. Copyright (c) 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Corbett, D. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Kemp, A.; Lin, N.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

2013-12-01

Future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. Through ongoing, collaborative research we are employing new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic variability. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. We produced new, high-resolution proxy sea-level reconstructions to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset spans the alternation between the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' and 'Little Ice Age'. Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from four study areas (Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, future storm surges will be superimposed on background sea-level rise. To overcome these problems, we coupled regional sea-level rise projections with hurricane simulations and storm surge models to map coastal inundation for the current climate and the best and worst case climate scenarios of the IPCC AR4. With agency, NGO, and business partners, we have integrated these findings into coastal policy initiatives, including the first ever adoption of sea level Adaptation Action Areas in a Florida city land use plan.

Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

2013-01-01

Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

Argon behaviour in an inverted Barrovian sequence, Sikkim Himalaya: The consequences of temperature and timescale on 40Ar/39Ar mica geochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Catherine M.; Warren, Clare J.; Halton, Alison M.; Kelley, Simon P.; Harris, Nigel B. W.

2015-12-01

40Ar/39Ar dating of metamorphic rocks sometimes yields complicated datasets which are difficult to interpret in terms of timescales of the metamorphic cycle. Single-grain fusion and step-heating data were obtained for rocks sampled through a major thrust-sense shear zone (the Main Central Thrust) and the associated inverted metamorphic zone in the Sikkim region of the eastern Himalaya. This transect provides a natural laboratory to explore factors influencing apparent 40Ar/39Ar ages in similar lithologies at a variety of metamorphic pressure and temperature (P-T) conditions. The 40Ar/39Ar dataset records progressively younger apparent age populations and a decrease in within-sample dispersion with increasing temperature through the sequence. The white mica populations span 2-9 Ma within each sample in the structurally lower levels (garnet grade) but only 0-3 Ma at structurally higher levels (kyanite-sillimanite grade). Mean white mica single-grain fusion population ages vary from 16.2 ± 3.9 Ma (2σ) to 13.2 ± 1.3 Ma (2σ) from lowest to highest levels. White mica step-heating data from the same samples yields plateau ages from 14.27 ± 0.13 Ma to 12.96 ± 0.05 Ma. Biotite yield older apparent age populations with mean single-grain fusion dates varying from 74.7 ± 11.8 Ma (2σ) at the lowest structural levels to 18.6 ± 4.7 Ma (2σ) at the highest structural levels; the step-heating plateaux are commonly disturbed. Temperatures > 600 °C at pressures of 0.4-0.8 GPa sustained over > 5 Ma, appear to be required for white mica and biotite ages to be consistent with diffusive, open-system cooling. At lower temperatures, and/or over shorter metamorphic timescales, more 40Ar is retained than results from simple diffusion models suggest. Diffusion modelling of Ar in white mica from the highest structural levels suggests that the high-temperature rocks cooled at a rate of 50-80 °C Ma- 1, consistent with rapid thrusting, extrusion and exhumation along the Main Central Thrust during the mid-Miocene.

Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

2015-04-24

The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

The retinamide VNLG-152 inhibits f-AR/AR-V7 and MNK-eIF4E signaling pathways to suppress EMT and castration-resistant prostate cancer xenograft growth.

PubMed

Ramamurthy, Vidya P; Ramalingam, Senthilmurugan; Gediya, Lalji K; Njar, Vincent C O

2018-03-01

VNLG-152 is a novel retinamide (NR) shown to suppress growth and progression of genetically diverse prostate cancer cells via inhibition of androgen receptor signaling and eukaryotic initiation factor 4E (eIF4E) translational machinery. Herein, we report therapeutic effects of VNLG-152 on castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) growth and metastatic phenotype in a CRPC tumor xenograft model. Administration of VNLG-152 significantly and dose-dependently suppressed the growth of aggressive CWR22Rv1 tumors by 63.4% and 76.3% at 10 and 20 mg·kg -1 bw, respectively (P < 0.0001), vs. vehicle with no host toxicity. Strikingly, the expression of full-length androgen receptor (f-AR)/androgen receptor splice variant-7 (AR-V7), mitogen-activated protein kinase-interacting kinases 1 and 2 (MNK1/2), phosphorylated eIF4E and their associated target proteins, including prostate-specific antigen, cyclin D1 and Bcl-2, were strongly decreased in VNLG-152-treated tumors signifying inhibition of f-AR/AR-V7 and MNK-eIF4E signaling in VNLG-152-treated CWR22Rv1 tumors as observed in vitro. VNLG-152 also suppressed the epithelial to mesenchymal transition in CWR22Rv1 tumors as evidenced by repression of N-cadherin, β-catenin, claudin, Slug, Snail, Twist, vimentin and matrix metalloproteinases (MMP-2 and MMP-9) with upsurge in E-cadherin. These results highlight the promising use of VNLG-152 in CRPC therapy and justify its further development towards clinical trials. © 2018 Federation of European Biochemical Societies.

Determining the impacts of climate change and catchment development on future water availability in Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, David

2010-05-01

In a water-scarce country such as Australia, detailed, accurate and reliable assessments of current and future water availability are essential in order to adequately manage the limited water resource. This presentation describes a recently completed study which provided an assessment of current water availability in Tasmania, Australia, and also determined how this water availability would be impacted by climate change and proposed catchment development by the year 2030. The Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project (http://www.csiro.au/partnerships/TasSY.html) assessed current water availability through the application of rainfall-runoff models, river models, and recharge and groundwater models. These were calibrated to streamflow records and parameterised using estimates of current groundwater and surface water extractions and use. Having derived a credible estimate of current water availability, the impacts of future climate change on water availability were determined through deriving changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration from 15 IPCC AR4 global climate models. These changes in rainfall were then dynamically downscaled using the CSIRO-CCAM model over the relatively small study area (50,000 square km). A future climate sequence was derived by modifying the historical 84-year climate sequence based on these changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. This future climate sequence was then run through the rainfall-runoff, river, recharge and groundwater models to give an estimate of water availability under future climate. To estimate the impacts of future catchment development on water availability, the models were modified and re-run to reflect projected increases in development. Specifically, outputs from the rainfall-runoff and recharge models were reduced over areas of projected future plantation forestry. Conversely, groundwater recharge was increased over areas of new irrigated agriculture and new extractions of water for irrigation were implemented in the groundwater and river models. Results indicate that historical average water availability across the project area was 21,815 GL/year. Of this, 636 GL/year of surface water and 38 GL/year of groundwater are currently extracted for use. By 2030, rainfall is projected to decrease by an average of 3% over the project area. This decrease in rainfall and concurrent increase in potential evapotranspiration leads to a decrease in water availability of 5% by 2030. As a result of lower streamflows, under current cease-to-take rules, currently licensed extractions are projected to decrease by 3% (19 GL/year). This however is offset by an additional 120 GL/year of extractions for proposed new irrigated agriculture. These new extractions, along with the increase in commercial forest plantations lead to a reduction in total surface water of 1% in addition to the 5% reduction due to climate change. Results from this study are being used by the Tasmanian and Australian governments to guide the development of a sustainable irrigated agriculture industry in Tasmania. In part, this is necessary to offset the loss of irrigated agriculture from the southern Murray-Darling Basin where climate change induced reductions in rainfall are projected to be far worse.

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.

Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Application of the Three Dimensional Forced Harmonic Oscillator Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-07

quasi -classical scattering theory [3,4] or trajectory [5] calculations, semiclassical, as well as close-coupled [6,7] or full [8] quantum mechanical...the quasi -classical trajectory (QCT) calculations approach for ab initio modeling of collision processes. The DMS method builds on an earlier work...nu ar y 30 , 2 01 8 | h ttp :// ar c. ai aa .o rg | D O I: 1 0. 25 14 /1 .T 52 28 to directly use quasi -classical or quantum mechanic

Aerosol direct, indirect, semidirect, and surface albedo effects from sector contributions based on the IPCC AR5 emissions for preindustrial and present-day conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

2012-01-01

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m2, with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m2). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m2) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m2) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m2), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

2012-01-01

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

ACK1/TNK2 Regulates Histone H4 Tyr88-phosphorylation and AR Gene Expression in Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Mahajan, Kiran; Malla, Pavani; Lawrence, Harshani R; Chen, Zhihua; Kumar-Sinha, Chandan; Malik, Rohit; Shukla, Sudhanshu; Kim, Jongphil; Coppola, Domenico; Lawrence, Nicholas J; Mahajan, Nupam P

2017-06-12

The androgen receptor (AR) is critical for the progression of prostate cancer to a castration-resistant (CRPC) state. AR antagonists are ineffective due to their inability to repress the expression of AR or its splice variant, AR-V7. Here, we report that the tyrosine kinase ACK1 (TNK2) phosphorylates histone H4 at tyrosine 88 upstream of the AR transcription start site. The WDR5/MLL2 complex reads the H4-Y88-phosphorylation marks and deposits the transcriptionally activating H3K4-trimethyl marks promoting AR transcription. Reversal of the pY88-H4 epigenetic marks by the ACK1 inhibitor (R)-9bMS-sensitized naive and enzalutamide-resistant prostate cancer cells and reduced AR and AR-V7 levels to mitigate CRPC tumor growth. Thus, a feedforward ACK1/pY88-H4/WDR5/MLL2/AR epigenetic circuit drives CRPC and is necessary for maintenance of the malignant state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Greenhouse gas emissions from fen soils used for forage production in northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poyda, Arne; Reinsch, Thorsten; Kluß, Christof; Loges, Ralf; Taube, Friedhelm

2016-09-01

A large share of peatlands in northwestern Germany is drained for agricultural purposes, thereby emitting high amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In order to quantify the climatic impact of fen soils in dairy farming systems of northern Germany, GHG exchange and forage yield were determined on four experimental sites which differed in terms of management and drainage intensity: (a) rewetted and unutilized grassland (UG), (b) intensive and wet grassland (GW), (c) intensive and moist grassland (GM) and (d) arable forage cropping (AR). Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and fluxes of CH4 and N2O were measured using closed manual chambers. CH4 fluxes were significantly affected by groundwater level (GWL) and soil temperature, whereas N2O fluxes showed a significant relation to the amount of nitrate in top soil. Annual balances of all three gases, as well as the global warming potential (GWP), were significantly correlated to mean annual GWL. A 2-year mean GWP, combined from CO2-C eq. of NEE, CH4 and N2O emissions, as well as C input (slurry) and C output (harvest), was 3.8, 11.7, 17.7 and 17.3 Mg CO2-C eq. ha-1 a-1 for sites UG, GW, GM and AR, respectively (standard error (SE) 2.8, 1.2, 1.8, 2.6). Yield-related emissions for the three agricultural sites were 201, 248 and 269 kg CO2-C eq. (GJ net energy lactation; NEL)-1 for sites GW, GM and AR, respectively (SE 17, 9, 19). The carbon footprint of agricultural commodities grown on fen soils depended on long-term drainage intensity rather than type of management, but management and climate strongly influenced interannual on-site variability. However, arable forage production revealed a high uncertainty of yield and therefore was an unsuitable land use option. Lowest yield-related GHG emissions were achieved by a three-cut system of productive grassland swards in combination with a high GWL (long-term mean ≤ 20 cm below the surface).

Structure-bias relationships for fenoterol stereoisomers in six molecular and cellular assays at the β2-adrenoceptor.

PubMed

Reinartz, Michael T; Kälble, Solveig; Littmann, Timo; Ozawa, Takeaki; Dove, Stefan; Kaever, Volkhard; Wainer, Irving W; Seifert, Roland

2015-01-01

Functional selectivity is well established as an underlying concept of ligand-specific signaling via G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs). Functionally, selective drugs could show greater therapeutic efficacy and fewer adverse effects. Dual coupling of the β2-adrenoceptor (β2AR) triggers a signal transduction via Gsα and Giα proteins. Here, we examined 12 fenoterol stereoisomers in six molecular and cellular assays. Using β2AR-Gsα and β2AR-Giα fusion proteins, (R,S')- and (S,S')-isomers of 4'-methoxy-1-naphthyl-fenoterol were identified as biased ligands with preference for Gs. G protein-independent signaling via β-arrestin-2 was disfavored by these ligands. Isolated human neutrophils constituted an ex vivo model of β2AR signaling and demonstrated functional selectivity through the dissociation of cAMP accumulation and the inhibition of formyl peptide-stimulated production of reactive oxygen species. Ligand bias was calculated using an operational model of agonism and revealed that the fenoterol scaffold constitutes a promising lead structure for the development of Gs-biased β2AR agonists.

Geochronology of the Baye Mn oxide deposit, southern Yunnan Plateau: Implications for the late Miocene to Pleistocene paleoclimatic conditions and topographic evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Xiao-Dong; Li, Jian-Wei; Vasconcelos, Paulo M.; Cohen, Benjamin E.; Kusky, Timothy M.

2014-08-01

40Ar/39Ar laser incremental heating analyses of supergene K-Mn oxides from weathering profiles at the Baye Mn deposit, southern Yunnan Plateau, SW China, were carried out to place constraints on the timing of weathering and derive insights into local paleoclimatic and landscape evolution. Weathering profiles in the Baye Mn mine are dominated by 20-30 m thick saprolites, which are locally covered by unconsolidated alluvial deposits. We analyzed 70 grains from 35 hand samples collected from four sites located at distinct elevations. In most cases, different grains from the same hand sample and different samples from the same site have reproducible 40Ar/39Ar plateau ages. The plateau ages of individual grains are also consistent with the respective isochron, integrated, and ideogram ages. This age consistency attests to the reliability of the geochronological results as numerical constraints on the formation and evolution of these weathering profiles. Sixty-four grains from 32 hand samples collected from weathering profiles at four sites (A to D) yield well-defined plateau or pseudoplateau ages ranging from 2.98 ± 0.07 to <0.16 Ma (2σ). The age results show that Mn oxides become progressively younger towards lower elevations: samples collected from the highest elevation site (∼1855 m a.s.l.) have the oldest ages at 2.98 ± 0.07 to 2.83 ± 0.13 Ma; samples from intermediate elevations (1821 to 1815 m a.s.l.) yield ages ranging from 2.91 ± 0.10 to 2.08 ± 0.11 Ma; and those from the lowest sites (1768 to 1753 m a.s.l.) are younger than 1.25 ± 0.08 Ma. The age versus elevation relationship indicates fast downward propagation of weathering front since the late Pliocene, and permits estimating the weathering rates at 3.3 ± 3.8, 6.6 ± 1.2, and 11.1 ± 1.9 m Myr-1 during the time periods of 2.98-2.83, 2.91-2.08, and 1.25 to <0.16 Ma, respectively. The average river incision rates estimated from the surface exposed ages range from 235 ± 10 to 416 ± 19 m Myr-1 during the past 3 million years. The incision rate calculated from minimum exposed ages at sites B-D is 33 ± 2 m Myr-1 for the time period of 2.91-1.25 Ma, which is consistent with the slow incision of streams on the ridges over the Yunnan Plateau since the early Pleistocene. Three Mn oxide pebbles contained in the alluvial deposits overlying the saprolite-dominated weathering profiles at the two highest sites provided additional information on the timing of weathering. Four grains from two pebbles yield plateau ages of 6.32 ± 0.19 to 5.27 ± 0.10 Ma, whereas the other two grains from the third pebble indicate the minimum formation ages of 8.2 ± 0.4 and 9.3 ± 0.3 Ma. These ages confirm the existence of older weathering profiles, now dismantled, in the region. Manganese oxide 40Ar/39Ar ages of the Baye deposit, when combined with results from other localities, indicate that lateritic weathering and supergene Mn enrichment and, by inference, warm and humid climates conducive to intense weathering have prevailed over the Plateau since the middle to late Miocene. The climatic conditions inferred from the weathering geochronology are consistent with multiple independent marine and terrestrial sedimentary and paleontological records, confirming that supergene Mn oxides can be used as a useful proxy for past climate. Age clusters of Mn oxides at 2.9-2.4, 1.2-0.8, and 0.6-0.4 Ma are broadly coincident with and thus likely reflect intensification events of the Indian Summer Monsoon that brings moisture and abundant precipitation to the Yunnan Plateau. These clusters also coincide with the periods of significant surface uplift in the Yunnan Plateau, demonstrating a causal link between topographic evolution, plateau uplift, and intensification of the monsoonal climate.

Cloud Simulations in Response to Turbulence Parameterizations in the GISS Model E GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yao, Mao-Sung; Cheng, Ye

2013-01-01

The response of cloud simulations to turbulence parameterizations is studied systematically using the GISS general circulation model (GCM) E2 employed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).Without the turbulence parameterization, the relative humidity (RH) and the low cloud cover peak unrealistically close to the surface; with the dry convection or with only the local turbulence parameterization, these two quantities improve their vertical structures, but the vertical transport of water vapor is still weak in the planetary boundary layers (PBLs); with both local and nonlocal turbulence parameterizations, the RH and low cloud cover have better vertical structures in all latitudes due to more significant vertical transport of water vapor in the PBL. The study also compares the cloud and radiation climatologies obtained from an experiment using a newer version of turbulence parameterization being developed at GISS with those obtained from the AR5 version. This newer scheme differs from the AR5 version in computing nonlocal transports, turbulent length scale, and PBL height and shows significant improvements in cloud and radiation simulations, especially over the subtropical eastern oceans and the southern oceans. The diagnosed PBL heights appear to correlate well with the low cloud distribution over oceans. This suggests that a cloud-producing scheme needs to be constructed in a framework that also takes the turbulence into consideration.

Ar-39-Ar-40 Evidence for Early Impact Events on the LL Parent Body

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dixon, E. T.; Bogard, D. D.; Garrison, D. H.; Rubin, A. E.

2006-01-01

We determined Ar-39-Ar-40 ages of eight LL chondrites, and one igneous inclusion from an LL chondrite, with the object of understanding the thermal history of the LL-chondrite parent body. The meteorites in this study have a range of petrographic types from LL3.3 to LL6, and shock stages from S1 to S4. These meteorites reveal a range of K-Ar ages from 23.66 to 24.50 Ga, and peak ages from 23.74 to 24.55 Ga. Significantly, three of the eight chondrites (LL4, 5, 6) have K-Ar ages of -4.27 Ga. One of these (MIL99301) preserves an Ar-39-Ar-40 age of 4.23 +/- 0.03 Ga from low-temperature extractions, and an older age of 4.52 +/- 0.08 Ga from the highest temperature extractions. In addition, an igneous-textured impact melt DOM85505,22 has a peak Ar-39-Ar-40 age of >= 4.27 Ga. We interpret these results as evidence for impact events that occurred at about 4.27 Ga on the LL parent body that produced local impact melts, reset the Ar-39-Ar-40 ages of some meteorites, and exhumed (or interred) others, resulting in a range of cooling ages. The somewhat younger peak age of 3.74 Ga from GR095658 (LL3.3) suggests an additional impact event close to timing of impact-reset ages of some other ordinary chondrites between 3.6-3.8 Ga. The results from MIL99301 suggest that some apparently unshocked (Sl) chondrites may have substantially reset Ar-39-Ar-40 ages. A previous petrographic investigation of MIL99301 suggested that reheating to temperatures less than or equal to type 4 petrographic conditions (600C) caused fractures in olivine to anneal, resulting in a low apparent shock stage of S1 (unshocked). The Ar-39-Ar-40 age spectrum of MIL99301 is consistent with this interpretation. Older ages from high-T extractions may date an earlier impact event at 4.52 +/- 0.08 Ga, whereas younger ages from lower-T extractions date a later impact event at 4.23 Ar-39-Ar-40 0.03 Ga that may have caused annealing of feldspar and olivine

Screening and Characterization of Polygalacturonase as Potential Enzyme for Keprok Garut Orange (Citrus nobilis var. chrysocarpa) Juice Clarification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widowati, E.; Utami, R.; Kalistyatika, K.

2017-11-01

Use of thermostable enzyme from bacilli for industrial application is significant. This research aimed to isolate thermophilic pectinolytic bacteria from orange peel and vegetable waste which produced thermostable polygalacturonase, to investigate the polygalacturonase ability in clarifying keprok Garut orange juice, and to characterize polygalacturonase based on pH optimum, temperature optimum, enzyme stability, enzyme kinetics KM, and Vmax. Obtained, 14 isolates that further selected to 4 best isolates based on highest polygalacturonase activity and keprok Garut orange juice clarification ability. Four selected enzyme isolates were AR 2, AR 4, KK 4, and KK 5 had ability to increase juice transmittance, decrease juice viscosity and also reduce total soluble solid. Furthermore 4 selected isolates were partially purified by ammonium sulphate precipitation and dialysis method. Four partially purified enzymes were known that enzyme character of AR 2 optimum at pH 6; AR 4 optimum at pH 5.5; KK 4 optimum at pH 6; and KK 5 optimum at pH 4.5. Four enzymes were optimum at temperature 60°C thus stable at temperature 50-60°C, this characteristic indicate that enzymes were thermostable. AR 2 showed active activity stable at pH 4-7; AR 4 showed active activity stable at pH 6-7; KK 4 showed active activity stable at pH 4-6; however KK 5 stable at pH 4-5. Enzyme AR 2 and KK 4 was getting inactive at pH 11, thus AR 4 and KK 5 inactive at pH 12. KM value of AR 2, AR 4, KK 4, and KK 5 was 0.0959; 0.0974; 0.0966; and 0.178 mg/ml respectively. Vmax of AR 2, AR 4, KK 4, and KK 5 was 0.0203; 0.0202; 0.0185; and 0.0229 U/ml respectively. Enzyme AR 2 was the most compatible enzyme to be applied in keprok Garut orange juice clarification for it had the lowest KM value.

Assessing Causes and Consequences of Columbia River Basalt Volcanism with Zircon Geochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasbohm, J.; Schoene, B.

2017-12-01

The Columbia River Basalt (CRB) is the youngest and best-preserved continental flood basalt province, but its mechanism of origin remains disputed. While some workers favor a mantle plume source to generate the large volume of flood basalts, others prefer subduction-related processes such as slab breakoff. Additionally, based on current geochronological (K-Ar and 40Ar/39Ar) estimates for the age of the CRB, there appears to be a very broad temporal coincidence between the main eruptive phase of the CRB and the Mid-Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO), a period of elevated global temperatures and atmospheric CO2. Currently, large analytical uncertainties preclude the detailed calculation of volumetric eruption rates, which will be essential to test models of origin and to pinpoint correlation to climate records. To develop a complete record of eruption rates through the CRB, we use CA-ID-TIMS U-Pb zircon geochronology, which is capable of yielding 2σ uncertainties on single analyses of ca. 10 kyr. While basalt does not typically saturate zircon, interflow sediments, paleosols, and volcaniclastic layers in the CRB stratigraphy contain felsic zircon-bearing ash, likely sourced from both the Cascades arc and incipient Snake River plain volcanism. We use U-Pb zircon dates from these horizons to bracket the age of basalt flows. Preliminary results show that 88% of the total volume of the CRB (the Imnaha, Grande Ronde, and Wanapum Basalts) erupted in 700 kyr, beginning 16.6 Ma, with an average effusion rate of 0.26 km3/yr and with occurrence of lava flows propagating from south to north at a minimum rate of 0.3 m/yr. Thus far, these results do not preclude a mantle plume origin, but do place quantitative constraints on geodynamic numerical models hoping to constrain flood basalt origins. Although models based on prior geochronology have suggested that degassing from the CRB was insufficient to cause the MMCO, our calculated reduction in the duration of the main phase of CRB eruptions suggest that the flood basalt had a more concentrated environmental forcing effect than previously realized.

Population pharmacokinetics of ticagrelor and AR-C124910XX in patients with prior myocardial infarction
.

PubMed

Röshammar, Daniel; Bergstrand, Martin; Andersson, Tomas; Storey, Robert F; Hamrén, Bengt

2017-05-01

The population pharmacokinetics of ticagrelor and its active metabolite AR-C124910XX were characterized following ticagrelor 60 mg or 90 mg twice daily oral long-term treatment in 4,426 patients with a history of myocardial infarction. The ticagrelor and AR-C124910XX plasma concentration-time data were described by one-compartment models with first-order absorption or metabolite formation and elimination. Systemic exposure to ticagrelor and AR-C124910XX were stable over time. Ticagrelor apparent clearance (CL/F) was 17 L/h for the 60-mg and 15.4 L/h for the 90-mg dose. The CL/F of AR-C124910XX was 11.1 L/h for the 60-mg and 9.95 L/h for the 90-mg dose. Both ticagrelor and AR-C124910XX CL/F were independently influenced by body weight, sex, age, smoking, and Japanese ethnicity. Female sex and age > 75 years were the only categorical covariates, having more than 20% effect on AR-C124910XX CL/F. Ticagrelor CL/F was 6% higher and 11% lower, whereas AR-C124910XX CL/F was 26% higher and 34% lower for patients weighing 110 and 50 kg, respectively, compared with an 83 kg patient. The small differences in exposure to both ticagrelor and AR-C124910XX between demographic subgroups were in accordance with the consistent efficacy and safety outcomes observed across the population. The results were similar to those observed previously in patients with acute coronary syndromes.
.

Inactivation of ID4 promotes a CRPC phenotype with constitutive AR activation through FKBP52.

PubMed

Joshi, Jugal Bharat; Patel, Divya; Morton, Derrick J; Sharma, Pankaj; Zou, Jin; Hewa Bostanthirige, Dhanushka; Gorantla, Yamini; Nagappan, Peri; Komaragiri, Shravan Kumar; Sivils, Jeffrey C; Xie, Huan; Palaniappan, Ravi; Wang, Guangdi; Cox, Marc B; Chaudhary, Jaideep

2017-04-01

Castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) is the emergence of prostate cancer cells that have adapted to the androgen-depleted environment of the prostate. In recent years, targeting multiple chaperones and co-chaperones (e.g., Hsp27, FKBP52) that promote androgen receptor (AR) signaling and/or novel AR regulatory mechanisms have emerged as promising alternative treatments for CRPC. We have shown that inactivation of inhibitor of differentiation 4 (ID4), a dominant-negative helix loop helix protein, promotes de novo steroidogenesis and CRPC with a gene expression signature that resembles constitutive AR activity in castrated mice. In this study, we investigated the underlying mechanism through which loss of ID4 potentiates AR signaling. Proteomic analysis between prostate cancer cell line LNCaP (L+ns) and LNCaP lacking ID4 (L(-)ID4) revealed elevated levels of Hsp27 and FKBP52, suggesting a role for these AR-associated co-chaperones in promoting constitutively active AR signaling in L(-)ID4 cells. Interestingly, protein interaction studies demonstrated a direct interaction between ID4 and the 52-kDa FK506-binding protein (FKBP52) in vitro, but not with AR. An increase in FKBP52-dependent AR transcriptional activity was observed in L(-)ID4 cells. Moreover, pharmacological inhibition of FKBP52-AR signaling, by treatment with MJC13, attenuated the tumor growth, weight, and volume in L(-)ID4 xenografts. Together, our results demonstrate that ID4 selectively regulates AR activity through direct interaction with FKBP52, and its loss, promotes CRPC through FKBP52-mediated AR signaling. © 2016 The Authors. Published by FEBS Press and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrated Farm System Model Version 4.3 and Dairy Gas Emissions Model Version 3.3 Software development and distribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Modeling routines of the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM version 4.2) and Dairy Gas Emission Model (DairyGEM version 3.2), two whole-farm simulation models developed and maintained by USDA-ARS, were revised with new components for: (1) simulation of ammonia (NH3) and greenhouse gas emissions gene...

[Study of an adherence rating score system for tuberculosis patients in China].

PubMed

Yuan, Yan-li; Yu, Bao-zhu; Jiang, Shi-wen; Wang, Tao; Lv, Jun; Tao, Qiu-Shan

2010-06-18

To develop an adherence rating score (ARS) system specific for tuberculosis (TB) patients. A cross-sectional survey of 124 TB patients was conducted to figure out risk factors for adherence to treatment. The step-wise logistic regression models were used for selecting adherence-related variables. ARS was developed based on the weighting scores of the parameters of all the predicted variables in the logistic model. The reliability and responsibility of ARS was evaluated by using external data from an open label randomized controlled trial on 574 TB patients. The patients were grouped as adherence group (247 patients) and non-adherence group (327 patients) based on the predicted ARS. And the non-adherence group was randomized divided into a trail group (146 patients) and a control group (181 patients). The intervention for the trail group was custom health educational material aimed to reduce ARS, while the intervention for control groups was general TB education material, which was routinely used in the current local TB control settings. The cumulative non-adherence rates of the three groups were compared with each other after six-month follow-up period of treatment. The ARS system had 7 items which covered the following domains: disease status, psychology, patients' KAP (knowledge, attitude, and practice), regularly life-style and social supports. The score of ARS was 2.38+/-0.18 (mean+/-SD) for adherence patients, and 4.69 +/-0.20 (mean+/-SD) for non-adherence patients (t=8.52, P<0.01). In the randomized controlled trial, the six months cumulative non-adherence rates ware 24.7% for the trail group and it was 41.4% for the control group(P<0.01); while the six months cumulative non-adherence rates were not statistical significant difference between trail group and adherence group (P>0.05). The ARS system was reliability and validity for evaluating the adherence of TB treatment in the stop TB settings in China.

Using ground- and satellite-based measurements and models to quantify response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South African semi-arid ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falge, Eva; Brümmer, Christian; Schmullius, Christiane; Scholes, Robert; Twine, Wayne; Mudau, Azwitamisi; Midgley, Guy; Hickler, Thomas; Bradshaw, Karen; Lück, Wolfgang; Thiel-Clemen, Thomas; du Toit, Justin; Sankaran, Vaith; Kutsch, Werner

2016-04-01

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences significant changes in shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and eventually fueling climate change. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. For a network of research clusters along an aridity gradient in South Africa, we measure greenhouse gas exchange, ecosystem structure and eco-physiological properties as affected by land use change at paired sites with natural and altered vegetation. We set up dynamic vegetation models and individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements. We monitor vegetation amount and heterogeneity using remotely sensed images and aerial photography over several decades to examine time series of land cover change. Finally, we investigate livelihood strategies with focus on carbon balance components to develop sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations. We envision our methodological approach on a network of research clusters a valuable means to investigate potential linkages to concepts of adaptive resilience.

New echocardiographic windows for quantitative determination of aortic regurgitation volume using color Doppler flow convergence and vena contracta

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiota, T.; Jones, M.; Agler, D. A.; McDonald, R. W.; Marcella, C. P.; Qin, J. X.; Zetts, A. D.; Greenberg, N. L.; Cardon, L. A.; Sun, J. P.;

New echocardiographic windows for quantitative determination of aortic regurgitation volume using color Doppler flow convergence and vena contracta.

PubMed

Shiota, T; Jones, M; Agler, D A; McDonald, R W; Marcella, C P; Qin, J X; Zetts, A D; Greenberg, N L; Cardon, L A; Sun, J P; Sahn, D J; Thomas, J D

1999-04-01

Color Doppler images of aortic regurgitation (AR) flow acceleration, flow convergence (FC), and the vena contracta (VC) have been reported to be useful for evaluating severity of AR. However, clinical application of these methods has been limited because of the difficulty in clearly imaging the FC and VC. This study aimed to explore new windows for imaging the FC and VC to evaluate AR volumes in patients and to validate this in animals with chronic AR. Forty patients with AR and 17 hemodynamic states in 4 sheep with strictly quantified AR volumes were evaluated. A Toshiba SSH 380A with a 3.75-MHz transducer was used to image the FC and VC. After routine echo Doppler imaging, patients were repositioned in the right lateral decubitus position, and the FC and VC were imaged from high right parasternal windows. In only 15 of the 40 patients was it possible to image clearly and measure accurately the FC and VC from conventional (left decubitus) apical or parasternal views. In contrast, 31 of 40 patients had clearly imaged FC regions and VCs using the new windows. In patients, AR volumes derived from the FC and VC methods combined with continuous velocity agreed well with each other (r = 0.97, mean difference = -7.9 ml +/- 9.9 ml/beat). In chronic animal model studies, AR volumes derived from both the VC and the FC agreed well with the electromagnetically derived AR volumes (r = 0.92, mean difference = -1.3 +/- 4.0 ml/beat). By imaging from high right parasternal windows in the right decubitus position, complementary use of the FC and VC methods can provide clinically valuable information about AR volumes.

Variations in the Nd isotope composition of Late Miocene to Early Pliocene glacially derived sediments in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabson, M.; Pierce, E. L.; Dale, C. L.; Williams, T.; Hemming, S. R.; van de Flierdt, T.; Cook, C.; Goldstein, S. L.

2010-12-01

Michelle Mabson (Howard University), Elizabeth Pierce (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University), Cathleen Doherty (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University), Trevor Williams (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory), Sidney Hemming (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory), Tina van de Flierdt (Imperial College London), Carys Cook (Imperial College London), Steve Goldstein (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory) Since initiation of major ice sheets on Antarctica at about 34 Ma, Antarctica has been a major player in global climate change. Understanding the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to major climate changes through the Cenozoic has fundamental importance to both Earth Sciences and Society. Previous study of Nd isotope composition of sediments at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1166 within Prydz Bay found evidence for variations of the Nd isotope composition between -15 to -30 epsilon units through this pre-glacial to glacial record (van de Flierdt et al., 2008, GRL). The Nd isotope composition of sediments provides an estimate for the average continental crust formation age of the sources. The sources around Prydz Bay have a wide range of formation ages, from Archean to Phanerozoic, so the areas which were being preferentially eroded can be inferred. This study seeks to contribute evidence for the local variations in provenance of sediments by extending the record of Nd isotope variations to ODP Site 739 in Prydz Bay. ODP Site 1165 has an unconformity that spans ~30-3 Ma. This part of the record is much more complete in ODP site 739, located about 200 km from the coast of Prydz Bay, probably more protected from ice stream erosion in the Prydz Channel. Because of its location we can conclude that the sediment deposited into this area is derived from the Lambert Glacier, and thus the variations in epsilon Nd will allow testing whether changes in the extent of this ice stream could lead to variations in the provenance of sediment carried by this ice. Recently Williams et al. (2010, EPSL) published evidence for dramatic changes in the sources of glacially derived sediments at ODP Site 1165, further offshore from Prydz Bay, at 7, 4.8 and 3.5 Ma. Their interpretation was based on the Ar-Ar ages of detrital hornblende grains, but samples taken across the 4.8 Ma event also showed an intriguing variation of the Nd isotope composition. The older part of the event includes a significant fraction of exotic Ar-Ar ages, but with epsilon Nd similar to the background values, while the younger part of the event shows a significant decrease in epsilon Nd but Ar-Ar of local origin. The specific goal of this study is to test the hypothesis that the shift to lower epsilon Nd in the 4.8 Ma ice rafting event is due to dynamical changes in the Prydz Bay sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet. Alternatively, the Lambert glacier may have retreated far enough to allow other sources in this sector to dominate the sediment composition in core 1165.

Visualizing projected Climate Changes - the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böttinger, Michael; Eyring, Veronika; Lauer, Axel; Meier-Fleischer, Karin

2017-04-01

Large ensembles add an additional dimension to climate model simulations. Internal variability of the climate system can be assessed for example by multiple climate model simulations with small variations in the initial conditions or by analyzing the spread in large ensembles made by multiple climate models under common protocols. This spread is often used as a measure of uncertainty in climate projections. In the context of the fifth phase of the WCRP's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), more than 40 different coupled climate models were employed to carry out a coordinated set of experiments. Time series of the development of integral quantities such as the global mean temperature change for all models visualize the spread in the multi-model ensemble. A similar approach can be applied to 2D-visualizations of projected climate changes such as latitude-longitude maps showing the multi-model mean of the ensemble by adding a graphical representation of the uncertainty information. This has been demonstrated for example with static figures in chapter 12 of the last IPCC report (AR5) using different so-called stippling and hatching techniques. In this work, we focus on animated visualizations of multi-model ensemble climate projections carried out within CMIP5 as a way of communicating climate change results to the scientific community as well as to the public. We take a closer look at measures of robustness or uncertainty used in recent publications suitable for animated visualizations. Specifically, we use the ESMValTool [1] to process and prepare the CMIP5 multi-model data in combination with standard visualization tools such as NCL and the commercial 3D visualization software Avizo to create the animations. We compare different visualization techniques such as height fields or shading with transparency for creating animated visualization of ensemble mean changes in temperature and precipitation including corresponding robustness measures. [1] Eyring, V., Righi, M., Lauer, A., Evaldsson, M., Wenzel, S., Jones, C., Anav, A., Andrews, O., Cionni, I., Davin, E. L., Deser, C., Ehbrecht, C., Friedlingstein, P., Gleckler, P., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Hagemann, S., Juckes, M., Kindermann, S., Krasting, J., Kunert, D., Levine, R., Loew, A., Mäkelä, J., Martin, G., Mason, E., Phillips, A. S., Read, S., Rio, C., Roehrig, R., Senftleben, D., Sterl, A., van Ulft, L. H., Walton, J., Wang, S., and Williams, K. D.: ESMValTool (v1.0) - a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747-1802, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016.

A multimodel approach to interannual and seasonal prediction of Danube discharge anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Patrut, Simona; Dima, Mihai

2010-05-01

Interannual and seasonal predictability of Danube river discharge is investigated using three model types: 1) time series models 2) linear regression models of discharge with large-scale climate mode indices and 3) models based on stable teleconnections. All models are calibrated using discharge and climatic data for the period 1901-1977 and validated for the period 1978-2008 . Various time series models, like autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) or singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average (SSA+ARMA) models have been calibrated and their skills evaluated. The best results were obtained using SSA+ARMA models. SSA+ARMA models proved to have the highest forecast skill also for other European rivers (Gamiz-Fortis et al. 2008). Multiple linear regression models using large-scale climatic mode indices as predictors have a higher forecast skill than the time series models. The best predictors for Danube discharge are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia patterns during winter and spring. Other patterns, like Polar/Eurasian or Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) are good predictors for summer and autumn discharge. Based on stable teleconnection approach (Ionita et al. 2008) we construct prediction models through a combination of sea surface temperature (SST), temperature (T) and precipitation (PP) from the regions where discharge and SST, T and PP variations are stable correlated. Forecast skills of these models are higher than forecast skills of the time series and multiple regression models. The models calibrated and validated in our study can be used for operational prediction of interannual and seasonal Danube discharge anomalies. References Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part I: intearannual predictability. J. Climate, 2484-2501, 2008. Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part II: seasonal predictability. J. Climate, 2503-2518, 2008. Ionita, M., G. Lohmann, and N. Rimbu, Prediction of spring Elbe river discharge based on stable teleconnections with global temperature and precipitation. J. Climate. 6215-6226, 2008.

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future

PubMed Central

Cai, Mingyong; Yang, Shengtian; Zhao, Changsen; Zhou, Qiuwen; Hou, Lipeng

2017-01-01

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM) is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050) climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050. Historical station observations (1960–2000) at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006–2009 and 2050) are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV) varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960–2000), the present period (2006–2009) has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more balanced in the future (2050). PMID:28486483

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future.

PubMed

Cai, Mingyong; Yang, Shengtian; Zhao, Changsen; Zhou, Qiuwen; Hou, Lipeng

2017-01-01

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM) is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050) climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050. Historical station observations (1960-2000) at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006-2009 and 2050) are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV) varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960-2000), the present period (2006-2009) has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more balanced in the future (2050).

Static and Impulsive Models of Solar Active Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patsourakos, S.; Klimchuk, James A.

2008-01-01

The physical modeling of active regions (ARs) and of the global coronal is receiving increasing interest lately. Recent attempts to model ARs using static equilibrium models were quite successful in reproducing AR images of hot soft X-ray (SXR) loops. They however failed to predict the bright EUV warm loops permeating ARs: the synthetic images were dominated by intense footpoint emission. We demonstrate that this failure is due to the very weak dependence of loop temperature on loop length which cannot simultaneously account for both hot and warm loops in the same AR. We then consider time-dependent AR models based on nanoflare heating. We demonstrate that such models can simultaneously reproduce EUV and SXR loops in ARs. Moreover, they predict radial intensity variations consistent with the localized core and extended emissions in SXR and EUV AR observations respectively. We finally show how the AR morphology can be used as a gauge of the properties (duration, energy, spatial dependence, repetition time) of the impulsive heating.

Green tea polyphenol EGCG blunts androgen receptor function in prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Siddiqui, Imtiaz A.; Asim, Mohammad; Hafeez, Bilal B.; Adhami, Vaqar M.; Tarapore, Rohinton S.; Mukhtar, Hasan

2011-01-01

Androgen deprivation therapy is the major treatment for advanced prostate cancer (PCa). However, it is a temporary remission, and the patients almost inevitably develop hormone refractory prostate cancer (HRPC). HRPC is almost incurable, although most HRPC cells still express androgen receptor (AR) and depend on the AR for growth, making AR a prime drug target. Here, we provide evidence that epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG), the major polyphenol in green tea, is a direct antagonist of androgen action. In silico modeling and FRET-based competition assay showed that EGCG physically interacts with the ligand-binding domain of AR by replacing a high-affinity labeled ligand (IC50 0.4 μM). The functional consequence of this interaction was a decrease in AR-mediated transcriptional activation, which was due to EGCG mediated inhibition of interdomain N-C termini interaction of AR. Treatment with EGCG also repressed the transcriptional activation by a hotspot mutant AR (T877A) expressed ectopically as well as the endogenous AR mutant. As the physiological consequence of AR antagonism, EGCG repressed R1881-induced PCa cell growth. In a xenograft model, EGCG was found to inhibit AR nuclear translocation and protein expression. We also observed a significant down-regulation of androgen-regulated miRNA-21 and up-regulation of a tumor suppressor, miRNA-330, in tumors of mice treated with EGCG. Taken together, we provide evidence that EGCG functionally antagonizes androgen action at multiple levels, resulting in inhibition of PCa growth.—Siddiqui, I. A., Asim, M., Hafeez, B. B., Adhami, V. M., Tarapore, R. S., Mukhtar, H. Green tea polyphenol EGCG blunts androgen receptor function in prostate cancer. PMID:21177307

Prostate-targeted biodegradable nanoparticles loaded with androgen receptor silencing constructs eradicate xenograft tumors in mice

PubMed Central

Yang, Jun; Xie, Sheng-Xue; Huang, Yiling; Ling, Min; Liu, Jihong; Ran, Yali; Wang, Yanlin; Thrasher, J Brantley; Berkland, Cory; Li, Benyi

2012-01-01

Background Prostate cancer is the major cause of cancer death in men and the androgen receptor (AR) has been shown to play a critical role in the progression of the disease. Our previous reports showed that knocking down the expression of the AR gene using a siRNA-based approach in prostate cancer cells led to apoptotic cell death and xenograft tumor eradication. In this study, we utilized a biodegradable nanoparticle to deliver the therapeutic AR shRNA construct specifically to prostate cancer cells. Materials & methods The biodegradable nanoparticles were fabricated using a poly(dl-lactic-co-glycolic acid) polymer and the AR shRNA constructs were loaded inside the particles. The surface of the nanoparticles were then conjugated with prostate-specific membrane antigen aptamer A10 for prostate cancer cell-specific targeting. Results A10-conjugation largely enhanced cellular uptake of nanoparticles in both cell culture- and xenograft-based models. The efficacy of AR shRNA encapsulated in nanoparticles on AR gene silencing was confirmed in PC-3/AR-derived xenografts in nude mice. The therapeutic property of A10-conjugated AR shRNA-loaded nanoparticles was evaluated in xenograft models with different prostate cancer cell lines: 22RV1, LAPC-4 and LNCaP. Upon two injections of the AR shRNA-loaded nanoparticles, rapid tumor regression was observed over 2 weeks. Consistent with previous reports, A10 aptamer conjugation significantly enhanced xenograft tumor regression compared with nonconjugated nanoparticles. Discussion These data demonstrated that tissue-specific delivery of AR shRNA using a biodegradable nanoparticle approach represents a novel therapy for life-threatening prostate cancers. PMID:22583574

Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions. Specifics of the importance of the scientific methodology e.g. RCM ensemble modeling (using OLAM, RAMS and WRF); combining RCM runs with agriculture modeling system (specifically APSIM); bringing different RCM setups to as close as possible common framework, etc., and important science results (e.g. the significance of Gulf of CA SST for precipitation over dry regions; the AR landfall impacts on precipitation; etc.) are described in our work. We emphasize that the methodology is significant in order to advance the state of the art climate change impacts at regional levels; and to implement our methodology for realistic impact analysis on the natural and managed (agriculture) ecosystems, beyond the SW US.

Ar-Ar and I-Xe Ages and the Thermal History of IAB Meteorites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogard, Donald D.; Garrison, Daniel H.; Takeda, Hiroshi

2005-01-01

Studies of several samples of the large Caddo County IAB iron meteorite reveal andesitic material, enriched in Si, Na, Al and Ca, which is essentially unique among meteorites. This material is believed to have formed from a chondritic source by partial melting and to have further segregated by grain coarsening. Such an origin implies extended metamorphism of the IAB parent body. New Ar-39- Ar-40 ages for silicate from three different Caddo samples are consistent with a common age of 4.50-4.51 Gyr ago. Less well defined Ar-Ar degassing ages for inclusions from two other IABs, EET8333 and Udei Station, are approx.4.32 Gyr, whereas the age for Campo del Cielo varies considerably over approx.3.23-4.56 Gyr. New I-129-Xe-129 ages for Caddo County and EET8333 are 4557.9+/-0.1 Myr and 4557-4560 Myr, respectively, relative to an age of 4562.3 Myr for Shallowater. Considering all reported Ar-Ar degassing ages for IABs and related winonaites, the range is approx.4.32-4.53 Gyr, but several IABs give similar Ar ages of 4.50-4.52 Gyr. We interpret these older Ar ages to represent cooling after the time of last significant metamorphism on the parent body, and the younger ages to represent later 40Ar diffusion loss. The older Ar-Ar ages for IABs are similar to Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isochron ages reported in the literature for Caddo County. Considering the possibility that IAB parent body formation was followed by impact disruption, reassembly, and metamorphism (e.g., Benedix et al. 2000), the Ar-Ar ages and IAB cooling rates deduced from Ni concentration profiles in IAB metal (Herpfer et al., 1994) are consistent if the time of the post-assembly metamorphism was as late as approx.4.53 Gyr ago. However, I-Xe ages reported for some IABs define much older ages of approx.4558-4566 Myr, which cannot easily be reconciled with the much younger Ar-Ar and Sm-Nd ages. An explanation for the difference in radiometric ages of IABs may reside in combinations of the following: a) I-Xe ages have very high closure temperatures and were not reset during metamorphism approx.4.53 Gyr ago; b) a bias exists in the 40K decay constants which makes these Ar-Ar ages approx.30 Myr too young; c) the reported Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr ages for Caddo are in error by amounts equal to or exceeding their reported 2-sigma uncertainties; and d) about 30 Myr after the initial heating that produced differentiation of Caddo silicate and mixing of silicate and metal, a mild metamorphism of the IAB parent body reset the Ar-Ar ages.

Water Stress on U.S. Power Production at Decadal Time Horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguli, P.; Kumar, D.; Yun, J.; Short, G.; Klausner, J.; Ganguly, A. R.

2014-12-01

Thermoelectric power production at risk, owing to current and projected water scarcity and rising stream temperatures, is assessed for the continental United States (US) at decadal scales. Regional water scarcity is driven by climate variability and change, as well as by multi-sector water demand. While a planning horizon of zero to about thirty years is occasionally prescribed by stakeholders, the challenges to risk assessment at these scales include the difficulty in delineating decadal climate trends from intrinsic natural or multiple model variability. Current generation global climate or earth system models are not credible at the spatial resolutions of power plants, especially for surface water quantity and stream temperatures, which further exacerbates the assessment challenge. Population changes, which are anyway difficult to project, cannot serve as adequate proxies for changes in the water demand across sectors. The hypothesis that robust assessments of power production at risks are possible, despite the uncertainties, has been examined as a proof of concept. An approach is presented for delineating water scarcity and temperature from climate models, observations and population storylines, as well as for assessing power production at risk by examining geospatial correlations of power plant locations within regions where the usable water supply for energy production happens to be scarcer and warmer. Acknowledgment: Funding provided by US DOE's ARPA-E through Award DE-AR0000374.

Diffusion in the Muscovite 40K Decay System (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, T. M.

2010-12-01

The considerable potential of muscovite for thermochronological applications is beginning to be fully exploited following the belated publication of Ar kinetic data. Muscovite’s high potassium content, low solubility for excess 40Ar*, and ubiquitous presence in regionally metamorphosed terranes make it an important phase for 40Ar/39Ar thermochronometry, particularly in light of recognition that both age spectra and vacuum-step-heating-derived 39Ar Arrhenius plots reflect Ar release via the same volume diffusion mechanism. Thus instead of assuming a nominal closure temperature to estimate a single T-t datum, continuous and accurate thermal histories can be inferred in a similar fashion to that well-documented for K-feldspar using the multi-diffusion domain (MDD) model. The Arrhenius parameters for Ar diffusion in muscovite (E=64 kcal/mol, Do=4 cm2/s) correspond to an effective intragrain closure temperature range of ~500 to 300oC for ca. 100 μm grains cooling at ~10oC/Ma at 5 kbar. However, even greater exploitation of the 40K decay system remains possible as only one of every ten 40K atoms decay to 40Ar. The other 90% decay to 40Ca giving the 40K-40Ca branch, in principle, greater sensitivity for dating high K/Ca minerals such as muscovite. The advent of the ‘double-plus’ SIMS 40K++-40Ca++ dating method, which permits analysis of Ca isotopes at an MRP of ~4k rather than the ~25k required for full separation of 40K+ from 40Ca+, opens up the prospect of directly revealing 40K-40Ca closure profiles in muscovite (as opposed to their indirect inference from inversion of 40Ar/39Ar data through the MDD model) at a gain of enhanced precision and accuracy in thermal history reconstruction. We have used SIMS to observe K-Ca age variations in natural muscovites pressed into In. Translating this data into thermal history information, however, requires knowledge of the Arrhenius parameters for Ca tracer diffusion in muscovite. We are undertaking hydrothermal piston-cylinder experiments of natural muscovites to induce radiogenic 40Ca* diffusion gradients that can be measured with SIMS using a ~5 μm spot. Preliminary indications suggest that Ca diffusion is not substantially slower than Ar in muscovite suggesting a similar to somewhat elevated closure temperature range.

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Surface Air Temperature Simulations over China in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

2013-12-01

Projections of future temperature in China are crucial for assessments of climate change and implementation of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. With the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) was developed for assessing the latest state-of-the-art climate models and their projections. In this study, monthly surface air temperature from 20 CMIP5 models and four experiments (historical, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) were used to investigate the temperature variability over China during the 20th century, and future changes for the 21st century. Two observational datasets (CRU TS 3.1 and the global terrestrial air temperature dataset from the University of Delaware) were adopted to evaluate the performance of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble average, the performance of individual models, as well as the possible improvements in CMIP5 relative to CMIP3. Results show that both CMIP3 and CMIP5 have cold biases over most parts of China. CMIP5 displays a slightly better agreement with the observations than CMIP3, but substantial cold biases still exist over the Tibetan Plateau, especially in the cold season. These biases are also characterized by the greatest discrepancies among the individual models, indicating the models' limitations over this mountainous region. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 show poor agreement with observed 20th-century temperature trends such that the spatial and seasonal patterns of the trends are not captured in the multimodel ensemble averages. Comparing individual models we find that MPI-ESM-LR, CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and CCSM4 exhibit better skill than the other models in this part of the world. Projections of future temperature suggest that there will be a gradual increase in annual surface air temperature in China during the 21st century at a rate of 0.60°C/decade and 0.27°C/decade under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively. RCP 2.6 shows the slowest warming at a rate of 0.10°C/decade for the whole 21st century, but temperature will increase until 2040, and then remain stable or even decrease slightly. Based on the three emission scenarios, annual temperatures are projected to rise by 1.7-5.7°C by the end of the 21st century, and the greatest warming will occur over northern China and the Tibetan Plateau.

The impact of past and future climate change on global human mortality due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J.; Anenberg, S.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D. T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Berntsen, T.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2012-12-01

Climate change can adversely affect air quality, through changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions. Future changes in air pollutant emissions will also profoundly influence air quality. These changes in air quality can affect human health, as exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with premature human mortality. Here we will quantify the global mortality impacts of past and future climate change, considering the effects of climate change on air quality isolated from emission changes. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has simulated the past and future surface concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 from each of several GCMs, for emissions from 1850 ("preindustrial") to 2000 ("present-day"), and for the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to 2100. We will use ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations from five or more global models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, for a base year (present-day), pre-industrial conditions, and future scenarios, considering changes in climate and emissions. We will assess the mortality impacts of past climate change by using one simulation ensemble with present emissions and climate and one with present emissions but 1850 climate. We will similarly quantify the potential impacts of future climate change under the four RCP scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs will be regridded to the same resolution to estimate multi-model medians and range in each grid cell. Resulting premature deaths will be calculated using these medians along with epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions, and present-day or future projections of population and baseline mortality rates, considering aging and transitioning disease rates over time. The spatial distributions of current and future global premature mortalities due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution will be presented separately. These results will strengthen our understanding of the impacts of climate change today, and in future years considering different plausible scenarios.

Signal Trees: Communicating Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Through Causal Chain Illustrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutting, H.

2016-12-01

Communicating the attribution of current climate change impacts is a key task for engagment with the general public, news media and policy makers, particularly as climate events unfold in real time. The IPCC WGII in AR5 validated the use of causal chain illustrations to depict attribution of individual climate change impacts. Climate Signals, an online digital platform for mapping and cataloging climate change impacts (launched in May of 2016), explores the use of such illustrations for communicating attribution. The Climate Signals project has developed semi-automated graphing software to produce custom attribution trees for numerous climate change events. This effort offers lessons for engagement of the general public and policy makers in the attribution of climate change impacts.

Climate change effects in the southwestern states of New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, California and Hawaii

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

On February 7, 2014 Thomas J. Vilsack, Secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, created seven regional hubs across the U.S. The directors of the regional climate hubs are either from the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) or the U.S. Forest Service. In addition to regional hubs, there are...

Grafting of carboxyl groups using CO2/C2H4/Ar pulsed plasma: Theoretical modeling and XPS derivatization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manakhov, Anton; Kiryukhantsev-Korneev, Philip; Michlíček, Miroslav; Permyakova, Elizaveta; Dvořáková, Eva; Polčák, Josef; Popov, Zakhar; Visotin, Maxim; Shtansky, Dmitry V.

2018-03-01

The grafting of carboxyl groups enhances cell adhesion and can be used for immobilization of different biomolecules onto plasma-treated materials. The process, however, was not well optimized due to lack of clear understanding of the mechanisms of carboxylic group incorporation into plasma and their grafting to polymer surface. In this work the deposition of COOH plasma polymers from CO2/C2H4/Ar pulsed discharge has been studied depending on the gas mixture and duty cycle. We have demonstrated that the CO2/C2H4/Ar plasma with adjustable thickness of COOH functionalized layer and high stability of the grafted functions in water is a better solution for the COOH surface functionalization compared to the thoroughly analyzed CO2 plasma. The concentration of different carbon environments and the density of COOH groups have been measured by using chemical derivatization combined with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. It has been found that the CO2/C2H4/Ar plasma mainly contains ester groups (COOC), the COOH/COOC ratio being between 0.03 and 0.08. The water stability of the COOH groups was significantly higher compared to ester environment, so immersing in water for 24 h allowed to increase the COOH/COOC ratio by a factor of 3. The mechanisms of the CO2 molecule attachment to hydrocarbon chains on the polymer surface and those located inside the plasma were modeled using ab initio calculations.

Integrated Farm System Model Version 4.1 and Dairy Gas Emissions Model Version 3.1 software release and distribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Animal facilities are significant contributors of gaseous emissions including ammonia (NH3) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Previous versions of the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM version 4.0) and Dairy Gas Emissions Model (DairyGEM version 3.0), two whole-farm simulation models developed by USDA-ARS, ...

α7 Nicotinic Agonist AR-R17779 Protects Mice against 2,4,6-Trinitrobenzene Sulfonic Acid-Induced Colitis in a Spleen-Dependent Way.

PubMed

Grandi, Andrea; Zini, Irene; Flammini, Lisa; Cantoni, Anna M; Vivo, Valentina; Ballabeni, Vigilio; Barocelli, Elisabetta; Bertoni, Simona

2017-01-01

The existence of a cholinergic anti-inflammatory pathway negatively modulating the inflammatory and immune responses in various clinical conditions and experimental models has long been postulated. In particular, the protective involvement of the vagus nerve and of nicotinic Ach receptors (nAChRs) has been proposed in intestinal inflammation and repeatedly investigated in DSS- and TNBS-induced colitis. However, the role of α 7 nAChRs stimulation is still controversial and the potential contribution of α 4 β 2 nAChRs has never been explored in this experimental condition. Our aims were therefore to pharmacologically investigate the role played by both α 7 and α 4 β 2 nAChRs in the modulation of the local and systemic inflammatory responses activated in TNBS-induced colitis in mice and to assess the involvement of the spleen in nicotinic responses. To this end, TNBS-exposed mice were sub-acutely treated with various subcutaneous doses of highly selective agonists (AR-R17779 and TC-2403) and antagonists (methyllycaconitine and dihydro-β-erythroidine) of α 7 and α 4 β 2 nAChRs, respectively, or with sulfasalazine 50 mg/kg per os and clinical and inflammatory responses were evaluated by means of biochemical, histological and flow cytometry assays. α 4 β 2 ligands evoked weak and contradictory effects, while α 7 nAChR agonist AR-R17779 emerged as the most beneficial treatment, able to attenuate several local markers of colitis severity and to revert the rise in splenic T-cells and in colonic inflammatory cytokines levels induced by haptenization. After splenectomy, AR-R17779 lost its protective effects, demonstrating for the first time that, in TNBS-model of experimental colitis, the anti-inflammatory effect of exogenous α 7 nAChR stimulation is strictly spleen-dependent. Our findings showed that the selective α 7 nAChRs agonist AR-R17779 exerted beneficial effects in a model of intestinal inflammation characterized by activation of the adaptive immune system and that the spleen is essential to mediate this cholinergic protection.

A comparison of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods for regional wave climate projections along French coastlines.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando

2013-04-01

Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at 110 coastal locations along the French coast. The model, based on the BAJ parameterization of the source terms (Bidlot et al, 2007) was calibrated against ten years of GlobWave altimeter observations (2000-2009) and validated through deep and shallow water buoy observations. The dynamical downscaling method has been performed with the same numerical wave model TOMAWAC used for building ANEMOC-2. Forecast simulations are forced by the 10m wind fields of ARPEGE-CLIMAT (A1B, A2, B1) from 2010 to 2100. The model covers the Atlantic Ocean and uses a spatial resolution along the French and European coast of 10 and 20 km respectively. The results of the model are stored with a time resolution of one hour. References: Benoit M., Marcos F., and F. Becq, (1996). Development of a third generation shallow-water wave model with unstructured spatial meshing. Proc. 25th Int. Conf. on Coastal Eng., (ICCE'1996), Orlando (Florida, USA), pp 465-478. Bidlot J-R, Janssen P. and Adballa S., (2007). A revised formulation of ocean wave dissipation and its model impact, technical memorandum ECMWF n°509. Menendez, M., Mendez, F.J., Izaguirre,C., Camus, P., Espejo, A., Canovas, V., Minguez, R., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2011). Statistical Downscaling of Multivariate Wave Climate Using a Weather Type Approach, 12th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 3rd Coastal Hazard Symposium, Kona (Hawaii).

Experimental investigations of electron density and ion energy distributions in dual-frequency capacitively coupled plasmas for Ar/CF{sub 4} and Ar/O{sub 2}/CF{sub 4} discharges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Jia; Liu, Yong-Xin; Gao, Fei

2014-01-07

The electron density and ion energy distribution (IED) are investigated in low-pressure dual-frequency capacitively coupled Ar/CF{sub 4} (90%/10%) and Ar/O{sub 2}/CF{sub 4} (80%/10%/10%) plasmas. The relations between controllable parameters, such as high-frequency (HF) power, low-frequency (LF) power and gas pressure, and plasma parameters, such as electron density and IEDs, are studied in detail by utilizing a floating hairpin probe and an energy resolved quadrupole mass spectrometer, respectively. In our experiment, the electron density is mainly determined by the HF power and slightly influenced by the LF power. With increasing gas pressure, the electron density first goes up rapidly to amore » maximum value and then decreases at various HF and LF powers. The HF power also plays a considerable role in affecting the IEDs under certain conditions and the ion energy independently controlled by the LF source is discussed here. For clarity, some numerical results obtained from a two-dimensional fluid model are presented.« less

Trajectory dynamics study of the Ar + CH4 dissociation reaction at high temperatures: the importance of zero-point-energy effects.

PubMed

Marques, J M C; Martínez-Núñez, E; Fernandez-Ramos, A; Vazquez, S A

2005-06-23

Large-scale classical trajectory calculations have been performed to study the reaction Ar + CH4--> CH3 +H + Ar in the temperature range 2500 < or = T/K < or = 4500. The potential energy surface used for ArCH4 is the sum of the nonbonding pairwise potentials of Hase and collaborators (J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 535) that models the intermolecular interaction and the CH4 intramolecular potential of Duchovic et al. (J. Phys. Chem. 1984, 88, 1339), which has been modified to account for the H-H repulsion at small bending angles. The thermal rate coefficient has been calculated, and the zero-point energy (ZPE) of the CH3 product molecule has been taken into account in the analysis of the results; also, two approaches have been applied for discarding predissociative trajectories. In both cases, good agreement is observed between the experimental and trajectory results after imposing the ZPE of CH3. The energy-transfer parameters have also been obtained from trajectory calculations and compared with available values estimated from experiment using the master equation formalism; in general, the agreement is good.

Pan-Arctic observations in GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project and its successor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamanouchi, Takashi

2016-04-01

We started a Japanese initiative - "Arctic Climate Change Research Project" - within the framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program, funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT), in 2011. This Project targeted understanding and forecasting "Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate System and its Global Influences." Four strategic research targets are set by the Ministry: 1. Understanding the mechanism of warming amplification in the Arctic; 2. Understanding the Arctic climate system for global climate and future change; 3. Evaluation of the impacts of Arctic change on the weather and climate in Japan, marine ecosystems and fisheries; 4. Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes. Through a network of universities and institutions in Japan, this 5-year Project involves more than 300 scientists from 39 institutions and universities. The National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) works as the core institute and The Japan Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) joins as the supporting institute. There are 7 bottom up research themes approved: the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, cryosphere, greenhouse gases, marine ecology and fisheries, sea ice and Arctic sea routes and climate modeling, among 22 applications. The Project will realize multi-disciplinal study of the Arctic region and connect to the projection of future Arctic and global climatic change by modeling. The project has been running since the beginning of 2011 and in those 5 years pan-Arctic observations have been carried out in many locations, such as Svalbard, Russian Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. In particular, 95 GHz cloud profiling radar in high precision was established at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, and intensive atmospheric observations were carried out in 2014 and 2015. In addition, the Arctic Ocean cruises by R/V "Mirai" (belonging to JAMSTEC) and other icebreakers belonging to other countries were conducted and mooring buoy observations were also carried out. The data retrieved during these observations was accumulated in the "Arctic Data archive System (ADS)" (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/) and served with interfaces for analysis. In addition, modeling studies have been promoted from fundamental process model to general circulation model. The successor of the project, ArCS (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability), which lays delivering emphasis 
on robust scientific information to stakeholders for decision making and solving problems, was started in FY2015. Within this project, a cooperative observation of black carbon are planned to be started at Cape Baranova Station (AARI, Rusia), Severnaya Zemlya, and new activities including emphasizing aerological observations are also planned to be started for contributing to "Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)" of Polar Prediction Project (PPP/ WMO). It will be desirable to have a future collaboration with IASOA.

Phosphodiesterase 4 Inhibitors Attenuate the Asthma Phenotype Produced by β2-Adrenoceptor Agonists in Phenylethanolamine N-Methyltransferase-Knockout Mice.

PubMed

Forkuo, Gloria S; Kim, Hosu; Thanawala, Vaidehi J; Al-Sawalha, Nour; Valdez, Daniel; Joshi, Radhika; Parra, Sergio; Pera, Tonio; Gonnella, Patricia A; Knoll, Brian J; Walker, Julia K L; Penn, Raymond B; Bond, Richard A

2016-08-01

Mice lacking the endogenous β2-adrenoceptor (β2AR) agonist epinephrine (phenylethanolamine N-methyltransferase [PNMT]-knockout mice) are resistant to developing an "asthma-like" phenotype in an ovalbumin sensitization and challenge (Ova S/C) model, and chronic administration of β2AR agonists to PNMT-KO mice restores the phenotype. Based on these and other studies showing differential effects of various β2AR ligands on the asthma phenotype, we have speculated that the permissive effect of endogenous epinephrine and exogenous β2AR agonists on allergic lung inflammation can be explained by qualitative β2AR signaling. The β2AR can signal through at least two pathways: the canonical Gαs-cAMP pathway and a β-arrestin-dependent pathway. Previous studies suggest that β-arrestin-2 is required for allergic lung inflammation. On the other hand, cell-based assays suggest antiinflammatory effects of Gαs-cAMP signaling. This study was designed to test whether the in vitro antiinflammatory effects of phosphodiesterase 4 inhibitors, known to increase intracellular cAMP in multiple airway cell types, attenuate the asthma-like phenotype produced by the β2AR agonists formoterol and salmeterol in vivo in PNMT-KO mice, based on the hypothesis that skewing β2AR signaling toward Gαs-cAMP pathway is beneficial. Airway inflammatory cells, epithelial mucus production, and airway hyperresponsiveness were quantified. In Ova S/C PNMT-KO mice, formoterol and salmeterol restored the asthma-like phenotype comparable to Ova S/C wild-type mice. However, coadministration of either roflumilast or rolipram attenuated this formoterol- or salmeterol-driven phenotype in Ova S/C PNMT-KO. These findings suggest that amplification of β2AR-mediated cAMP by phosphodiesterase 4 inhibitors attenuates the asthma-like phenotype promoted by β-agonists.

Androgen Receptor-Mediated Growth Suppression of HPr-1AR and PC3-Lenti-AR Prostate Epithelial Cells

PubMed Central

Bolton, Eric C.

2015-01-01

The androgen receptor (AR) mediates the developmental, physiologic, and pathologic effects of androgens including 5α-dihydrotestosterone (DHT). However, the mechanisms whereby AR regulates growth suppression and differentiation of luminal epithelial cells in the prostate gland and proliferation of malignant versions of these cells are not well understood, though they are central to prostate development, homeostasis, and neoplasia. Here, we identify androgen-responsive genes that restrain cell cycle progression and proliferation of human prostate epithelial cell lines (HPr-1AR and PC3-Lenti-AR), and we investigate the mechanisms through which AR regulates their expression. DHT inhibited proliferation of HPr-1AR and PC3-Lenti-AR, and cell cycle analysis revealed a prolonged G1 interval. In the cell cycle, the G1/S-phase transition is initiated by the activity of cyclin D and cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) complexes, which relieve growth suppression. In HPr-1AR, cyclin D1/2 and CDK4/6 mRNAs were androgen-repressed, whereas CDK inhibitor, CDKN1A, mRNA was androgen-induced. The regulation of these transcripts was AR-dependent, and involved multiple mechanisms. Similar AR-mediated down-regulation of CDK4/6 mRNAs and up-regulation of CDKN1A mRNA occurred in PC3-Lenti-AR. Further, CDK4/6 overexpression suppressed DHT-inhibited cell cycle progression and proliferation of HPr-1AR and PC3-Lenti-AR, whereas CDKN1A overexpression induced cell cycle arrest. We therefore propose that AR-mediated growth suppression of HPr-1AR involves cyclin D1 mRNA decay, transcriptional repression of cyclin D2 and CDK4/6, and transcriptional activation of CDKN1A, which serve to decrease CDK4/6 activity. AR-mediated inhibition of PC3-Lenti-AR proliferation occurs through a similar mechanism, albeit without down-regulation of cyclin D. Our findings provide insight into AR-mediated regulation of prostate epithelial cell proliferation. PMID:26372468

Evidence for shock heating and constraints on Martian surface temperatures revealed by 40Ar/ 39Ar thermochronometry of Martian meteorites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassata, William S.; Shuster, David L.; Renne, Paul R.; Weiss, Benjamin P.

2010-12-01

The thermal histories of Martian meteorite are important for the interpretation of petrologic, geochemical, geochronological, and paleomagnetic constraints that they provide on the evolution of Mars. In this paper, we quantify 40Ar/ 39Ar ages and Ar diffusion kinetics of Martian meteorites Allan Hills (ALH) 84001, Nakhla, and Miller Range (MIL) 03346. We constrain the thermal history of each meteorite and discuss the resulting implications for their petrology, paleomagnetism, and geochronology. Maskelynite in ALH 84001 yields a 40Ar/ 39Ar isochron age of 4163 ± 35 Ma, which is indistinguishable from recent Pb-Pb ( Bouvier et al., 2009a) and Lu-Hf ages ( Lapen et al., 2010). The high precision of this result arises from clear resolution of a reproducible trapped 40Ar/ 36Ar component in maskelynite in ALH 84001 ( 40Ar/ 36Ar = 632 ± 90). The maskelynite 40Ar/ 39Ar age predates the Late Heavy Bombardment and likely represents the time at which the original natural remanent magnetization (NRM) component observed in ALH 84001 was acquired. Nakhla and MIL 03346 yield 40Ar/ 39Ar isochron ages of 1332 ± 24 and 1339 ± 8 Ma, respectively, which we interpret to date crystallization. Multi-phase, multi-domain diffusion models constrained by the observed Ar diffusion kinetics and 40Ar/ 39Ar age spectra suggest that localized regions within both ALH 84001 and Nakhla were intensely heated for brief durations during shock events at 1158 ± 110 and 913 ± 9 Ma, respectively. These ages may date the marginal melting of pyroxene in each rock, mobilization of carbonates and maskelynite in ALH 84001, and NRM overprints observed in ALH 84001. The inferred peak temperatures of the shock heating events (>1400 °C) are sufficient to mobilize Ar, Sr, and Pb in constituent minerals, which may explain some of the dispersion observed in 40Ar/ 39Ar, Rb-Sr, and U-Th-Pb data toward ages younger than ˜4.1 Ga. The data also place conservative upper bounds on the long-duration residence temperatures of the ALH 84001 and Nakhla protolith to be 22-∞+8 °C and 81-∞+9 °C over the last ˜4.16 Ga and ˜1.35 Ga, respectively. MIL 03346 has apparently not experienced significant shock-heating since it crystallized, consistent with the fact that various chronometers yield concordant ages.

Effect of Impingement Angle on landfalling Atmospheric River precipitation efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, A.; Cao, Q.; Wang, K.; Cannon, F.; Ralph, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) along the western coast of North America in wintertime are associated with heavy winter precipitation and most flood events. ARs are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that transport moisture from the eastern Pacific to North Pacific coast of North America. Furthermore, the lowest levels of the atmosphere account for almost 75% of the water vapor transport through these rivers. The combination of high integrated water vapor in AR events and strong upslope winds results in heavy orographic precipitation in regions where the narrow AR jets make landfall. We analyzed 19 years (1997 2015) of landfalling ARs over a transect along the U.S. West Coast consisting of two river basins from coastal Washington and Northern California (Chehalis basin and the Russian River basin) to highlight the impingement angle impact on precipitation rainout efficiency. We have studied water vapor data from Climate Forecast System reanalysis (CFSR) on AR dates to calculate the impingement angle and associated total amount of water vapor. Rainout efficiency is defined and calculated as the ratio of total amount of water vapor that has precipitated over each basin. Our results show that extreme AR events which impingement angle is orthogonal to basin exposure, have greater rainout efficiency.

Effects of a Proteasome Inhibitor on Cardiomyocytes in a Pressure-Overload Hypertrophy Rat Model: An Animal Study.

PubMed

Kim, In-Sub; Jo, Won-Min

2017-06-01

The ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS) is an important pathway of proteolysis in pathologic hypertrophic cardiomyocytes. We hypothesize that MG132, a proteasome inhibitor, might prevent hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (CMP) by blocking the UPS. Nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-κB) and androgen receptor (AR) have been reported to be mediators of CMP and heart failure. This study drew upon pathophysiologic studies and the analysis of NF-κB and AR to assess the cardioprotective effects of MG132 in a left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) rat model. We constructed a transverse aortic constriction (TAC)-induced LVH rat model with 3 groups: sham (TAC-sham, n=10), control (TAC-cont, n=10), and MG132 administration (TAC-MG132, n=10). MG-132 (0.1 mg/kg) was injected for 4 weeks in the TAC-MG132 group. Pathophysiologic evaluations were performed and the expression of AR and NF-κB was measured in the left ventricle. Fibrosis was prevalent in the pathologic examination of the TAC-cont model, and it was reduced in the TAC-MG132 group, although not significantly. Less expression of AR, but not NF-κB, was found in the TAC-MG132 group than in the TAC-cont group (p<0.05). MG-132 was found to suppress AR in the TAC-CMP model by blocking the UPS, which reduced fibrosis. However, NF-κB expression levels were not related to UPS function.

Assessing Leader Cognitive Skills with Situational Judgment Tests: Construct Validity Results

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

M2A1, M2A3 , M2A4a, M2A4b, M2A4e, M2A4k .54** Factor 5 (5 items): Mission Statement M3Ba, M3Bb, M3Bc, M3Bd, M3Be .33** Factor 6 (11 items): Mission...Organization. Team A 2/A/4-99 AR ( M2A3 ) 3/A/4-99 AR ( M2A3 ) 1/C/4-99 AR (M1A2 SEP) TF Control Scout Platoon Mortar Platoon 1/A/2-244 CHEM...SMK) (DS) B/1st BSB (OPCON) Maintenance Platoon Team B 2/B/4-99 AR ( M2A3 ) 3/B/4-99 AR ( M2A3 ) 1/DC/4-99 AR (M1A2 SEP) Team C 1

Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2011-12-01

Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States and many other coastal areas around the world. Risk assessment of current and future hurricane storm surge provides the basis for risk mitigation and related decision making. This study investigates the hurricane surge risk for Tampa Bay, located on the central west coast of Florida. Although fewer storms have made landfall in the central west Florida than in regions farther west in the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of U.S., Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge due to its geophysical features. It is surrounded by low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. Also, edge waves trapped on the west Florida shelf can propagate along the coastline and affect the sea level outside the area of a forced storm surge; Tampa Bay may be affected by storms traversing some distance outside the Bay. Moreover, when the propagation speed of the edge wave is close to that of a storm moving parallel to the coast, resonance may occur and the water elevation in the Bay may be greatly enhanced. Therefore, Tampa Bay is vulnerable to storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics. We apply a model-based risk assessment method to carry out the investigation. To estimate the current surge risk, we apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model to generate a set of 1500 storms for the Tampa area, under the observed current climate (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) estimated from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. To study the effect of climate change, we use four climate models, CNRM-CM3, ECHAM, GFDL-CM2.0, and MIROC3.2, respectively, to drive the hurricane model to generate four sets of 1500 Tampa storms under current climate conditions (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) and another four under future climate conditions of the IPCC-AR4 A1B emission scenario (represented by 2081-2100 statistics). Then, we apply two hydrodynamic models, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model with grids of various resolutions to simulate the surges induced by the synthetic storms. The surge risk under each of the climate scenarios is depicted by a surge return level curve (exceedance probability curve). For the city of Tampa, the heights of the 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year surges under the current climate are estimated to be 3.85, 5.66, and 6.31 m, respectively. Two of the four climate models predict that surge return periods will be significantly shortened in the future climates due to the change of storm climatology; the current 100-year surge may happen every 50 years or less, the 500-year surge every 200 years or less, and the 1000-year surge every 300 years or less. The other two climate models predict that the surge return periods will become moderately shorter or remain almost unchanged in the future climates. Extreme surges up to 12 m at Tampa appear in our simulations. Although occurring with very small probabilities, these extreme surges would have a devastating impact on the Tampa Bay area. By examining the generated synthetic surge database, we study the characteristics of the extreme storms at Tampa Bay, especially for the storms that may interact with edge waves along the Florida west coast.

Radial flow in 40Ar+45Sc reactions at E=35-115 MeV/nucleon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pak, R.; Craig, D.; Gualtieri, E. E.; Hannuschke, S. A.; Lacey, R. A.; Lauret, J.; Llope, W. J.; Stone, N. T. B.; Vander Molen, A. M.; Westfall, G. D.; Yee, J.

1996-10-01

Collective radial flow of light fragments from 40Ar+45Sc reactions at beam energies between 35 and 115 MeV/nucleon has been investigated using the Michigan State University 4π Array. The mean transverse kinetic energy of the different fragment types increases with event centrality and increases as a function of the incident beam energy. Comparison of our measured values of shows agreement with predictions of Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck model and WIX multifragmentation model calculations. The radial flow extracted from accounts for approximately half of the emitted particle's energy for the heavier fragments (Z>=4) at the highest beam energy studied.

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 ModelE simulated clouds and TOA radiation budgets using satellite observations over the southern mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, Ryan Evan

Past, current, and future climates have been simulated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE Global Circulation Model (GCM) and summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, AR4). New simulations from the updated CMIP5 version of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM were recently released to the public community during the summer of 2011 and will be included in the upcoming IPCC AR5 ensemble of simulations. Due to the recent nature of these simulations, they have not yet been extensively validated against observations. To assess the NASA GISS-E2-R GCM, model simulated clouds and cloud properties are compared to observational cloud properties derived from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project using MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the period of March 2000 through December 2005. Over the 6-year period, the global average modeled cloud fractions are within 1% of observations. However, further study however shows large regional biases between the GCM simulations and CERES-MODIS observations. The southern mid-latitudes (SML) were chosen as a focus region due to model errors across multiple GCMs within the recent phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Over the SML, the GISS GCM undersimulates total cloud fraction over 20%, but oversimulates total water path by 2 g m-2. Simulated vertical cloud distributions over the SML when compared to both CERES-MODIS and CloudSat/CALIPSO observations show a drastic undersimulation of low level clouds by the GISS GCM, but higher fractions of thicker clouds. To assess the impact of GISS simulated clouds on the TOA radiation budgets, the modeled TOA radiation budgets are compared to CERES EBAF observations. Because modeled low-level cloud fraction is much lower than observed over the SML, modeled reflected shortwave (SW) flux at the TOA is 13 W m -2 lower and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is 3 W m-2 higher than observations. Finally, cloud radiative effects (CRE) are calculated and compared with observations to fully assess the impact of clouds on the TOA radiation budgets. The difference in clear-sky reflected SW flux between model and observation is only +4 W m-2 while the SW CRE difference is up to 17 W m-2, indicating that most of the bias in SW CRE results from the all-sky bias between the model and observation. A sizeable negative bias of 10 W m-2 in simulated clear-sky OLR has been found due to a dry bias in calculating observed clear-sky OLR and lack of upper-level water vapor at the 100-mb level in the model. The dry bias impacts CRE LW, with the model undersimulating by 13 W m-2. The CRE NET difference is only 5 W m-2 due to the cancellation of SW and LW CRE biases.