Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

PubMed Central

Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.

PubMed

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts.

The integrated landscape assessment project

Treesearch

Miles A. Hemstrom; Janine Salwasser; Joshua Halofsky; Jimmy Kagan; Cyndi Comfort

2012-01-01

The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) is a three-year effort that produces information, models, data, and tools to help land managers, policymakers, and others examine mid- to broad-scale (e.g., watersheds to states and larger areas) prioritization of land management actions, perform landscape assessments, and estimate potential effects of management...

Canopy reflectance, photosynthesis, and transpiration. III - A reanalysis using improved leaf models and a new canopy integration scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, P. J.; Berry, J. A.; Collatz, G. J.; Field, C. B.; Hall, F. G.

1992-01-01

The theoretical analyses of Sellers (1985, 1987), which linked canopy spectral reflectance properties to (unstressed) photosynthetic rates and conductances, are critically reviewed and significant shortcomings are identified. These are addressed in this article principally through the incorporation of a more sophisticated and realistic treatment of leaf physiological processes within a new canopy integration scheme. The results indicate that area-averaged spectral vegetation indices, as obtained from coarse resolution satellite sensors, may give good estimates of the area-integrals of photosynthesis and conductance even for spatially heterogenous (though physiologically uniform) vegetation covers.

Using remote sensing and GIS techniques to estimate discharge and recharge fluxes for the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.; Turner, A.K.; ,

1996-01-01

The recharge and discharge components of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were defined by techniques that integrated disparate data types to develop a spatially complex representation of near-surface hydrological processes. Image classification methods were applied to multispectral satellite data to produce a vegetation map. The vegetation map was combined with ancillary data in a GIS to delineate different types of wetlands, phreatophytes and wet playa areas. Existing evapotranspiration-rate estimates were used to calculate discharge volumes for these area. An empirical method of groundwater recharge estimation was modified to incorporate data describing soil-moisture conditions, and a recharge potential map was produced. These discharge and recharge maps were readily converted to data arrays for numerical modelling codes. Inverse parameter estimation techniques also used these data to evaluate the reliability and sensitivity of estimated values.The recharge and discharge components of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were defined by remote sensing and GIS techniques that integrated disparate data types to develop a spatially complex representation of near-surface hydrological processes. Image classification methods were applied to multispectral satellite data to produce a vegetation map. This map provided a basis for subsequent evapotranspiration and infiltration estimations. The vegetation map was combined with ancillary data in a GIS to delineate different types of wetlands, phreatophytes and wet playa areas. Existing evapotranspiration-rate estimates were then used to calculate discharge volumes for these areas. A previously used empirical method of groundwater recharge estimation was modified by GIS methods to incorporate data describing soil-moisture conditions, and a recharge potential map was produced. These discharge and recharge maps were readily converted to data arrays for numerical modelling codes. Inverse parameter estimation techniques also used these data to evaluate the reliability and sensitivity of estimated values.

Neural Mechanisms of Cortical Motion Computation Based on a Neuromorphic Sensory System

PubMed Central

Abdul-Kreem, Luma Issa; Neumann, Heiko

2015-01-01

The visual cortex analyzes motion information along hierarchically arranged visual areas that interact through bidirectional interconnections. This work suggests a bio-inspired visual model focusing on the interactions of the cortical areas in which a new mechanism of feedforward and feedback processing are introduced. The model uses a neuromorphic vision sensor (silicon retina) that simulates the spike-generation functionality of the biological retina. Our model takes into account two main model visual areas, namely V1 and MT, with different feature selectivities. The initial motion is estimated in model area V1 using spatiotemporal filters to locally detect the direction of motion. Here, we adapt the filtering scheme originally suggested by Adelson and Bergen to make it consistent with the spike representation of the DVS. The responses of area V1 are weighted and pooled by area MT cells which are selective to different velocities, i.e. direction and speed. Such feature selectivity is here derived from compositions of activities in the spatio-temporal domain and integrating over larger space-time regions (receptive fields). In order to account for the bidirectional coupling of cortical areas we match properties of the feature selectivity in both areas for feedback processing. For such linkage we integrate the responses over different speeds along a particular preferred direction. Normalization of activities is carried out over the spatial as well as the feature domains to balance the activities of individual neurons in model areas V1 and MT. Our model was tested using different stimuli that moved in different directions. The results reveal that the error margin between the estimated motion and synthetic ground truth is decreased in area MT comparing with the initial estimation of area V1. In addition, the modulated V1 cell activations shows an enhancement of the initial motion estimation that is steered by feedback signals from MT cells. PMID:26554589

Efficiency assessment of using satellite data for crop area estimation in Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego, Francisco Javier; Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Kravchenko, Oleksii; Shelestov, Andrii; Kussul, Olga

2014-06-01

The knowledge of the crop area is a key element for the estimation of the total crop production of a country and, therefore, the management of agricultural commodities markets. Satellite data and derived products can be effectively used for stratification purposes and a-posteriori correction of area estimates from ground observations. This paper presents the main results and conclusions of the study conducted in 2010 to explore feasibility and efficiency of crop area estimation in Ukraine assisted by optical satellite remote sensing images. The study was carried out on three oblasts in Ukraine with a total area of 78,500 km2. The efficiency of using images acquired by several satellite sensors (MODIS, Landsat-5/TM, AWiFS, LISS-III, and RapidEye) combined with a field survey on a stratified sample of square segments for crop area estimation in Ukraine is assessed. The main criteria used for efficiency analysis are as follows: (i) relative efficiency that shows how much time the error of area estimates can be reduced with satellite images, and (ii) cost-efficiency that shows how much time the costs of ground surveys for crop area estimation can be reduced with satellite images. These criteria are applied to each satellite image type separately, i.e., no integration of images acquired by different sensors is made, to select the optimal dataset. The study found that only MODIS and Landsat-5/TM reached cost-efficiency thresholds while AWiFS, LISS-III, and RapidEye images, due to its high price, were not cost-efficient for crop area estimation in Ukraine at oblast level.

Integrating social, economic, and ecological values across large landscapes

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky; Megan K. Creutzburg; Miles A. Hemstrom

2014-01-01

The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) was a multiyear effort to produce information, maps, and models to help land managers, policymakers, and others conduct mid- to broad-scale (e.g., watersheds to states and larger areas) prioritization of land management actions, perform landscape assessments, and estimate cumulative effects of management actions for...

Sample EP Flow Analysis of Severely Damaged Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werley, Kenneth Alan; McCown, Andrew William

These are slides for a presentation at the working group meeting of the WESC SREMP Software Product Integration Team on sample EP flow analysis of severely damaged networks. The following topics are covered: ERCOT EP Transmission Model; Zoomed in to Houston and Overlaying StreetAtlas; EMPACT Solve/Dispatch/Shedding Options; QACS BaseCase Power Flow Solution; 3 Substation Contingency; Gen. & Load/100 Optimal Dispatch; Dispatch Results; Shed Load for Low V; Network Damage Summary; Estimated Service Areas (Potential); Estimated Outage Areas (potential).

Model-data integration for developing the Cropland Carbon Monitoring System (CCMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C. D.; Bandaru, V.; Pnvr, K.; Jin, H.; Reddy, A.; Sahajpal, R.; Sedano, F.; Skakun, S.; Wagle, P.; Gowda, P. H.; Hurtt, G. C.; Izaurralde, R. C.

2017-12-01

The Cropland Carbon Monitoring System (CCMS) has been initiated to improve regional estimates of carbon fluxes from croplands in the conterminous United States through integration of terrestrial ecosystem modeling, use of remote-sensing products and publically available datasets, and development of improved landscape and management databases. In order to develop these improved carbon flux estimates, experimental datasets are essential for evaluating the skill of estimates, characterizing the uncertainty of these estimates, characterizing parameter sensitivities, and calibrating specific modeling components. Experiments were sought that included flux tower measurement of CO2 fluxes under production of major agronomic crops. Currently data has been collected from 17 experiments comprising 117 site-years from 12 unique locations. Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem model parameters using available crop productivity and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measurements resulted in improvements in RMSE of NEE predictions of between 3.78% to 7.67%, while improvements in RMSE for yield ranged from -1.85% to 14.79%. Model sensitivities were dominated by parameters related to leaf area index (LAI) and spring growth, demonstrating considerable capacity for model improvement through development and integration of remote-sensing products. Subsequent analyses will assess the impact of such integrated approaches on skill of cropland carbon flux estimates.

Hydraulic characterization of volcanic rocks in Pahute Mesa using an integrated analysis of 16 multiple-well aquifer tests, Nevada National Security Site, 2009–14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, C. Amanda; Jackson, Tracie R.; Halford, Keith J.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Damar, Nancy A.; Fenelon, Joseph M.; Reiner, Steven R.

2017-01-20

An improved understanding of groundwater flow and radionuclide migration downgradient from underground nuclear-testing areas at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, requires accurate subsurface hydraulic characterization. To improve conceptual models of flow and transport in the complex hydrogeologic system beneath Pahute Mesa, the U.S. Geological Survey characterized bulk hydraulic properties of volcanic rocks using an integrated analysis of 16 multiple-well aquifer tests. Single-well aquifer-test analyses provided transmissivity estimates at pumped wells. Transmissivity estimates ranged from less than 1 to about 100,000 square feet per day in Pahute Mesa and the vicinity. Drawdown from multiple-well aquifer testing was estimated and distinguished from natural fluctuations in more than 200 pumping and observation wells using analytical water-level models. Drawdown was detected at distances greater than 3 miles from pumping wells and propagated across hydrostratigraphic units and major structures, indicating that neither faults nor structural blocks noticeably impede or divert groundwater flow in the study area.Consistent hydraulic properties were estimated by simultaneously interpreting drawdown from the 16 multiple-well aquifer tests with an integrated groundwater-flow model composed of 11 well-site models—1 for each aquifer test site. Hydraulic properties were distributed across volcanic rocks with the Phase II Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model. Estimated hydraulic-conductivity distributions spanned more than two orders of magnitude in hydrostratigraphic units. Overlapping hydraulic conductivity ranges among units indicated that most Phase II Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model units were not hydraulically distinct. Simulated total transmissivity ranged from 1,600 to 68,000 square feet per day for all pumping wells analyzed. High-transmissivity zones exceeding 10,000 square feet per day exist near caldera margins and extend along the northern and eastern Pahute Mesa study area and near the southwestern edge of the study area. The estimated hydraulic-property distributions and observed hydraulic connections among geologic structures improved the characterization and representation of groundwater flow at Pahute Mesa.

Spectral Radiance of a Large-Area Integrating Sphere Source

PubMed Central

Walker, James H.; Thompson, Ambler

1995-01-01

The radiance and irradiance calibration of large field-of-view scanning and imaging radiometers for remote sensing and surveillance applications has resulted in the development of novel calibration techniques. One of these techniques is the employment of large-area integrating sphere sources as radiance or irradiance secondary standards. To assist the National Aeronautical and Space Administration’s space based ozone measurement program, a commercially available large-area internally illuminated integrating sphere source’s spectral radiance was characterized in the wavelength region from 230 nm to 400 nm at the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Spectral radiance determinations and spatial mappings of the source indicate that carefully designed large-area integrating sphere sources can be measured with a 1 % to 2 % expanded uncertainty (two standard deviation estimate) in the near ultraviolet with spatial nonuniformities of 0.6 % or smaller across a 20 cm diameter exit aperture. A method is proposed for the calculation of the final radiance uncertainties of the source which includes the field of view of the instrument being calibrated. PMID:29151725

Design techniques for modular integrated utility systems. [energy production and conversion efficiency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfer, B. M.

1977-01-01

Features basic to the integrated utility system, such as solid waste incineration, heat recovery and usage, and water recycling/treatment, are compared in terms of cost, fuel conservation, and efficiency to conventional utility systems in the same mean-climatic area of Washington, D. C. The larger of the two apartment complexes selected for the test showed the more favorable results in the three areas of comparison. Restrictions concerning the sole use of currently available technology are hypothetically removed to consider the introduction and possible advantages of certain advanced techniques in an integrated utility system; recommendations are made and costs are estimated for each type of system.

NEXRAD quantitative precipitation estimates, data acquisition, and processing for the DuPage County, Illinois, streamflow-simulation modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortel, Terry W.; Spies, Ryan R.

2015-11-19

Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) has become an integral component in the estimation of precipitation (Kitzmiller and others, 2013). The high spatial and temporal resolution of NEXRAD has revolutionized the ability to estimate precipitation across vast regions, which is especially beneficial in areas without a dense rain-gage network. With the improved precipitation estimates, hydrologic models can produce reliable streamflow forecasts for areas across the United States. NEXRAD data from the National Weather Service (NWS) has been an invaluable tool used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for numerous projects and studies; NEXRAD data processing techniques similar to those discussed in this Fact Sheet have been developed within the USGS, including the NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimates archive developed by Blodgett (2013).

Reproducibility of isopach data and estimates of dispersal and eruption volumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klawonn, M.; Houghton, B. F.; Swanson, D.; Fagents, S. A.; Wessel, P.; Wolfe, C. J.

2012-12-01

Total erupted volume and deposit thinning relationships are key parameters in characterizing explosive eruptions and evaluating the potential risk from a volcano as well as inputs to volcanic plume models. Volcanologists most commonly estimate these parameters by hand-contouring deposit data, then representing these contours in thickness versus square root area plots, fitting empirical laws to the thinning relationships and integrating over the square root area to arrive at volume estimates. In this study we analyze the extent to which variability in hand-contouring thickness data for pyroclastic fall deposits influences the resulting estimates and investigate the effects of different fitting laws. 96 volcanologists (3% MA students, 19% PhD students, 20% postdocs, 27% professors, and 30% professional geologists) from 11 countries (Australia, Ecuador, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland, UK, USA) participated in our study and produced hand-contours on identical maps using our unpublished thickness measurements of the Kilauea Iki 1959 fall deposit. We computed volume estimates by (A) integrating over a surface fitted through the contour lines, as well as using the established methods of integrating over the thinning relationships of (B) an exponential fit with one to three segments, (C) a power law fit, and (D) a Weibull function fit. To focus on the differences from the hand-contours of the well constrained deposit and eliminate the effects of extrapolations to great but unmeasured thicknesses near the vent, we removed the volume contribution of the near vent deposit (defined as the deposit above 3.5 m) from the volume estimates. The remaining volume approximates to 1.76 *106 m3 (geometric mean for all methods) with maximum and minimum estimates of 2.5 *106 m3 and 1.1 *106 m3. Different integration methods of identical isopach maps result in volume estimate differences of up to 50% and, on average, maximum variation between integration methods of 14%. Volume estimates with methods (A), (C) and (D) show strong correlation (r = 0.8 to r = 0.9), while correlation of (B) with the other methods is weaker (r = 0.2 to r = 0.6) and correlation between (B) and (C) is not statistically significant. We find that the choice of larger maximum contours leads to smaller volume estimates due to method (C), but larger estimates with the other methods. We do not find statistically significant correlation between volume estimations and participants experience level, number of chosen contour levels, nor smoothness of contours. Overall, application of the different methods to the same maps leads to similar mean volume estimates, but the different methods show different dependencies and varying spread of volume estimates. The results indicate that these key parameters are less critically dependent on the operator and their choices of contour values, intervals etc., and more sensitive to the selection of technique to integrate these data.

Land Capability Potential Index (LCPI) for the Lower Missouri River Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Chojnacki, Kimberly A.; Reuter, Joanna M.

2007-01-01

The Land Capability Potential Index (LCPI) was developed to serve as a relatively coarse-scale index to delineate broad land capability classes in the valley of the Lower Missouri River. The index integrates fundamental factors that determine suitability of land for various uses, and may provide a useful mechanism to guide land-management decisions. The LCPI was constructed from integration of hydrology, hydraulics, land-surface elevations, and soil permeability (or saturated hydraulic conductivity) datasets for an area of the Lower Missouri River, river miles 423–670. The LCPI estimates relative wetness based on intersecting water-surface elevations, interpolated from measurements or calculated from hydraulic models, with a high-resolution land-surface elevation dataset. The potential for wet areas to retain or drain water is assessed using soil-drainage classes that are estimated from saturated hydraulic conductivity of surface soils. Terrain mapping that delineates areas with convex, concave, and flat parts of the landscape provides another means to assess tendency of landscape patches to retain surface water.

An integrated pan-tropical biomass map using multiple reference datasets.

PubMed

Avitabile, Valerio; Herold, Martin; Heuvelink, Gerard B M; Lewis, Simon L; Phillips, Oliver L; Asner, Gregory P; Armston, John; Ashton, Peter S; Banin, Lindsay; Bayol, Nicolas; Berry, Nicholas J; Boeckx, Pascal; de Jong, Bernardus H J; DeVries, Ben; Girardin, Cecile A J; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Lindsell, Jeremy A; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Lucas, Richard; Malhi, Yadvinder; Morel, Alexandra; Mitchard, Edward T A; Nagy, Laszlo; Qie, Lan; Quinones, Marcela J; Ryan, Casey M; Ferry, Slik J W; Sunderland, Terry; Laurin, Gaia Vaglio; Gatti, Roberto Cazzolla; Valentini, Riccardo; Verbeeck, Hans; Wijaya, Arief; Willcock, Simon

2016-04-01

We combined two existing datasets of vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB) (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 2011, 9899; Nature Climate Change, 2, 2012, 182) into a pan-tropical AGB map at 1-km resolution using an independent reference dataset of field observations and locally calibrated high-resolution biomass maps, harmonized and upscaled to 14 477 1-km AGB estimates. Our data fusion approach uses bias removal and weighted linear averaging that incorporates and spatializes the biomass patterns indicated by the reference data. The method was applied independently in areas (strata) with homogeneous error patterns of the input (Saatchi and Baccini) maps, which were estimated from the reference data and additional covariates. Based on the fused map, we estimated AGB stock for the tropics (23.4 N-23.4 S) of 375 Pg dry mass, 9-18% lower than the Saatchi and Baccini estimates. The fused map also showed differing spatial patterns of AGB over large areas, with higher AGB density in the dense forest areas in the Congo basin, Eastern Amazon and South-East Asia, and lower values in Central America and in most dry vegetation areas of Africa than either of the input maps. The validation exercise, based on 2118 estimates from the reference dataset not used in the fusion process, showed that the fused map had a RMSE 15-21% lower than that of the input maps and, most importantly, nearly unbiased estimates (mean bias 5 Mg dry mass ha(-1) vs. 21 and 28 Mg ha(-1) for the input maps). The fusion method can be applied at any scale including the policy-relevant national level, where it can provide improved biomass estimates by integrating existing regional biomass maps as input maps and additional, country-specific reference datasets. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimates of Ground-Water Recharge in Wadis of Arid, Mountainous Areas Using the Chloride Mass-Balance Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, W. W.; Wood, W. W.

2001-05-01

Evaluation of ground-water supply in arid areas requires estimation of annual recharge. Traditional physical-based hydrologic estimates of ground-water recharge result in large uncertainties when applied in arid, mountainous environments because of infrequent, intense rainfall events, destruction of water-measuring structures associated with those events, and consequent short periods of hydrologic records. To avoid these problems and reduce the uncertainty of recharge estimates, a chloride mass-balance (CMB) approach was used to provide a time-integrated estimate. Seven basins exhibiting dry-stream beds (wadis) in the Asir and Hijaz Mountains, western Saudi Arabia, were selected to evaluate the method. Precipitation among the basins ranged from less than 70 mm/y to nearly 320 mm/y. Rain collected from 35 locations in these basins averaged 2.0 mg/L chloride. Ground water from 140 locations in the wadi alluvium averaged 200 mg/L chloride. This chloride concentration ratio of precipitation to ground water suggests that on average, approximately 1 percent of the rainfall is recharged, while the remainder is lost to evaporation. Ground-water recharge from precipitation in individual basins ranged from less than 1 to nearly 4 percent and was directly proportional to total precipitation. Independent calculations of recharge using Darcy's Law were consistent with these findings and are within the range typically found in other arid areas of the world. Development of ground water has lowered the water level beneath the wadis and provided more storage thus minimizing chloride loss from the basin by river discharge. Any loss of chloride from the basin results in an overestimate of the recharge flux by the chloride-mass balance approach. In well-constrained systems recharge in arid, mountainous areas where the mass of chloride entering and leaving the basin is known or can be reasonably estimated, the CMB approach provides a rapid, inexpensive method for estimating time-integrated ground-water recharge.

Disentangling sampling and ecological explanations underlying species-area relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Alpizar-Jara, R.; Flather, C.H.

2002-01-01

We used a probabilistic approach to address the influence of sampling artifacts on the form of species-area relationships (SARs). We developed a model in which the increase in observed species richness is a function of sampling effort exclusively. We assumed that effort depends on area sampled, and we generated species-area curves under that model. These curves can be realistic looking. We then generated SARs from avian data, comparing SARs based on counts with those based on richness estimates. We used an approach to estimation of species richness that accounts for species detection probability and, hence, for variation in sampling effort. The slopes of SARs based on counts are steeper than those of curves based on estimates of richness, indicating that the former partly reflect failure to account for species detection probability. SARs based on estimates reflect ecological processes exclusively, not sampling processes. This approach permits investigation of ecologically relevant hypotheses. The slope of SARs is not influenced by the slope of the relationship between habitat diversity and area. In situations in which not all of the species are detected during sampling sessions, approaches to estimation of species richness integrating species detection probability should be used to investigate the rate of increase in species richness with area.

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The requirements and processing logic for the LACIE Error Model program (LEM) are described. This program is an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) system. LEM is that portion of the LPP (LACIE Performance Predictor) which simulates the sample segment classification, strata yield estimation, and production aggregation. LEM controls repetitive Monte Carlo trials based on input error distributions to obtain statistical estimates of the wheat area, yield, and production at different levels of aggregation. LEM interfaces with the rest of the LPP through a set of data files.

Paratransit Integration Workshop Proceedings, October 12-13, 1977

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-08-01

Experts in the field of demand responsive transportation dealt with seven areas of concern for a proposed manual of paratransit services: planning and institutional constraints, involvement of the private operator, estimation techniques, system desig...

Modeling variability and scale integration of LAI measurements

Treesearch

Kris Nackaerts; Pol Coppin

2000-01-01

Rapid and reliable estimation of leaf area at various scales is important for research on chance detection of leaf area index (LAI) as an indicator of ecosystem condition. It is of utmost importance to know to what extent boundary and illumination conditions, data aggregation method, and sampling scheme influence the relative accuracy of stand-level LAI measurements....

Improving carbon monitoring and reporting in forests using spatially-explicit information.

PubMed

Boisvenue, Céline; Smiley, Byron P; White, Joanne C; Kurz, Werner A; Wulder, Michael A

2016-12-01

Understanding and quantifying carbon (C) exchanges between the biosphere and the atmosphere-specifically the process of C removal from the atmosphere, and how this process is changing-is the basis for developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. Monitoring forest systems and reporting on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals are now required components of international efforts aimed at mitigating rising atmospheric GHG. Spatially-explicit information about forests can improve the estimates of GHG emissions and removals. However, at present, remotely-sensed information on forest change is not commonly integrated into GHG reporting systems. New, detailed (30-m spatial resolution) forest change products derived from satellite time series informing on location, magnitude, and type of change, at an annual time step, have recently become available. Here we estimate the forest GHG balance using these new Landsat-based change data, a spatial forest inventory, and develop yield curves as inputs to the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to estimate GHG emissions and removals at a 30 m resolution for a 13 Mha pilot area in Saskatchewan, Canada. Our results depict the forests as cumulative C sink (17.98 Tg C or 0.64 Tg C year -1 ) between 1984 and 2012 with an average C density of 206.5 (±0.6) Mg C ha -1 . Comparisons between our estimates and estimates from Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System (NFCMARS) were possible only on a subset of our study area. In our simulations the area was a C sink, while the official reporting simulations, it was a C source. Forest area and overall C stock estimates also differ between the two simulated estimates. Both estimates have similar uncertainties, but the spatially-explicit results we present here better quantify the potential improvement brought on by spatially-explicit modelling. We discuss the source of the differences between these estimates. This study represents an important first step towards the integration of spatially-explicit information into Canada's NFCMARS.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

PubMed

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

Development of a Bayesian Estimator for Audio-Visual Integration: A Neurocomputational Study

PubMed Central

Ursino, Mauro; Crisafulli, Andrea; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe; Magosso, Elisa; Cuppini, Cristiano

2017-01-01

The brain integrates information from different sensory modalities to generate a coherent and accurate percept of external events. Several experimental studies suggest that this integration follows the principle of Bayesian estimate. However, the neural mechanisms responsible for this behavior, and its development in a multisensory environment, are still insufficiently understood. We recently presented a neural network model of audio-visual integration (Neural Computation, 2017) to investigate how a Bayesian estimator can spontaneously develop from the statistics of external stimuli. Model assumes the presence of two unimodal areas (auditory and visual) topologically organized. Neurons in each area receive an input from the external environment, computed as the inner product of the sensory-specific stimulus and the receptive field synapses, and a cross-modal input from neurons of the other modality. Based on sensory experience, synapses were trained via Hebbian potentiation and a decay term. Aim of this work is to improve the previous model, including a more realistic distribution of visual stimuli: visual stimuli have a higher spatial accuracy at the central azimuthal coordinate and a lower accuracy at the periphery. Moreover, their prior probability is higher at the center, and decreases toward the periphery. Simulations show that, after training, the receptive fields of visual and auditory neurons shrink to reproduce the accuracy of the input (both at the center and at the periphery in the visual case), thus realizing the likelihood estimate of unimodal spatial position. Moreover, the preferred positions of visual neurons contract toward the center, thus encoding the prior probability of the visual input. Finally, a prior probability of the co-occurrence of audio-visual stimuli is encoded in the cross-modal synapses. The model is able to simulate the main properties of a Bayesian estimator and to reproduce behavioral data in all conditions examined. In particular, in unisensory conditions the visual estimates exhibit a bias toward the fovea, which increases with the level of noise. In cross modal conditions, the SD of the estimates decreases when using congruent audio-visual stimuli, and a ventriloquism effect becomes evident in case of spatially disparate stimuli. Moreover, the ventriloquism decreases with the eccentricity. PMID:29046631

Unmanned aircraft system sense and avoid integrity and continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamoom, Michael B.

This thesis describes new methods to guarantee safety of sense and avoid (SAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) by evaluating integrity and continuity risks. Previous SAA efforts focused on relative safety metrics, such as risk ratios, comparing the risk of using an SAA system versus not using it. The methods in this thesis evaluate integrity and continuity risks as absolute measures of safety, as is the established practice in commercial aircraft terminal area navigation applications. The main contribution of this thesis is a derivation of a new method, based on a standard intruder relative constant velocity assumption, that uses hazard state estimates and estimate error covariances to establish (1) the integrity risk of the SAA system not detecting imminent loss of '"well clear," which is the time and distance required to maintain safe separation from intruder aircraft, and (2) the probability of false alert, the continuity risk. Another contribution is applying these integrity and continuity risk evaluation methods to set quantifiable and certifiable safety requirements on sensors. A sensitivity analysis uses this methodology to evaluate the impact of sensor errors on integrity and continuity risks. The penultimate contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation where the estimation model is refined to address realistic intruder relative linear accelerations, which goes beyond the current constant velocity standard. The final contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation addressing multiple intruders. This evaluation is a new innovation-based method to determine the risk of mis-associating intruder measurements. A mis-association occurs when the SAA system incorrectly associates a measurement to the wrong intruder, causing large errors in the estimated intruder trajectories. The new methods described in this thesis can help ensure safe encounters between aircraft and enable SAA sensor certification for UAS integration into the National Airspace System.

Maturation of Structural Health Management Systems for Solid Rocket Motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quing, Xinlin; Beard, Shawn; Zhang, Chang

2011-01-01

Concepts of an autonomous and automated space-compliant diagnostic system were developed for conditioned-based maintenance (CBM) of rocket motors for space exploration vehicles. The diagnostic system will provide real-time information on the integrity of critical structures on launch vehicles, improve their performance, and greatly increase crew safety while decreasing inspection costs. Using the SMART Layer technology as a basis, detailed procedures and calibration techniques for implementation of the diagnostic system were developed. The diagnostic system is a distributed system, which consists of a sensor network, local data loggers, and a host central processor. The system detects external impact to the structure. The major functions of the system include an estimate of impact location, estimate of impact force at impacted location, and estimate of the structure damage at impacted location. This system consists of a large-area sensor network, dedicated multiple local data loggers with signal processing and data analysis software to allow for real-time, in situ monitoring, and longterm tracking of structural integrity of solid rocket motors. Specifically, the system could provide easy installation of large sensor networks, onboard operation under harsh environments and loading, inspection of inaccessible areas without disassembly, detection of impact events and impact damage in real-time, and monitoring of a large area with local data processing to reduce wiring.

Resource inventory techniques used in the California Desert Conservation Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcleod, R. G.; Johnson, H. B.

1981-01-01

A variety of conventional and remotely sensed data for the 25 million acre California Desert Conservation Area (CDCA) have been integrated and analyzed to estimate range carrying capacity. Multispectral classification was performed on a digital mosaic of ten Landsat frames. Multispectral classes were correlated with low level aerial photography, quantified and aggregated by grazing allotment, land ownership, and slope.

How will climate change affect spatial planning in agricultural and natural environments? Examples from three Dutch case study regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blom-Zandstra, Margaretha; Paulissen, Maurice; Agricola, Herman; Schaap, Ben

2009-11-01

Climate change will place increasing pressure on the functioning of agricultural and natural areas in the Netherlands. Strategies to adapt these areas to stress are likely to require changes in landscape structure and management. In densely populated countries such as the Netherlands, the increased pressure of climate change on agricultural and natural areas will inevitably lead, through the necessity of spatial adaptation measures, to spatial conflicts between the sectors of agriculture and nature. An integrated approach to climate change adaptation may therefore be beneficial in limiting such sectoral conflicts. We explored the conflicting and synergistic properties of different climate adaptation strategies for agricultural and natural environments in the Netherlands. To estimate the feasibility and effectiveness of the strategies, we focussed on three case study regions with contrasting landscape structural, natural and agricultural characteristics. For each region, we estimated the expected climate-related threats and associated trade-offs for arable farming and natural areas for 2040. We describe a number of spatial and integrated adaptation strategies to mitigate these threats. Formulating adaptation strategies requires consultation of different stakeholders and deliberation between different interests. We discuss some trade-offs involved in this decision-making.

Estimating CHD prevalence by small area: integrating information from health surveys and area mortality.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2008-03-01

The risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is strongly linked both to deprivation and ethnicity and so prevalence will vary considerably between areas. Variations in prevalence are important in assessing health care needs and how far CHD service provision and surgical intervention rates match need. This paper uses a regression model of prevalence rates by age, sex, region and ethnicity from the 1999 and 2003 Health Surveys for England to estimate CHD prevalence for 354 English local authority areas. To allow for the impact of social factors on prevalence, survey information on the deprivation quintile in the respondents' micro-area of residence is also used. Allowance is also made for area CHD mortality rates (obtained from aggregated vital statistics data) which are positively correlated with, and hence a proxy for, CHD prevalence rates. An application involves assessment of surgical intervention rates in relation to prevalence at the level of 28 Strategic Health Authorities.

Estimating the beam attenuation coefficient in coastal waters from AVHRR imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, Richard W.; Arnone, Robert A.

1997-09-01

This paper presents an algorithm to estimate particle beam attenuation at 660 nm ( cp660) in coastal areas using the red and near-infrared channels of the NOAA AVHRR satellite sensor. In situ reflectance spectra and cp660 measurements were collected at 23 stations in Case I and II waters during an April 1993 cruise in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The reflectance spectra were weighted by the spectral response of the AVHRR sensor and integrated over the channel 1 waveband to estimate the atmospherically corrected signal recorded by the satellite. An empirical relationship between integrated reflectance and cp660 values was derived with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.88. Because the AVHRR sensor requires a strong channel 1 signal, the algorithm is applicable in highly turbid areas ( cp660 > 1.5 m -1) where scattering from suspended sediment strongly controls the shape and magnitude of the red (550-650 nm) reflectance spectrum. The algorithm was tested on a data set collected 2 years later in different coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico and satellite estimates of cp660 averaged within 37% of measured values. Application of the algorithm provides daily images of nearshore regions at 1 km resolution for evaluating processes affecting ocean color distribution patterns (tides, winds, currents, river discharge). Further validation and refinement of the algorithm are in progress to permit quantitative application in other coastal areas. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd

Use of remote sensing for land use policy formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Progress in studies for using remotely sensed data for assessing crop stress and in crop estimation is reported. The estimation of acreage of small forested areas in the southern lower peninsula of Michigan using LANDSAT data is evaluated. Damage to small grains caused by the cereal leaf beetle was assessed through remote sensing. The remote detection of X-disease of peach and cherry trees and of fire blight of pear and apple trees was investigated. The reliability of improving on standard methods of crop production estimation was demonstrated. Areas of virus infestation in vineyards and blueberry fields in western and southwestern Michigan were identified. The installation and systems integration of a microcomputer system for processing and making available remotely sensed data are described.

Assessing Methods for Mapping 2D Field Concentrations of CO2 Over Large Spatial Areas for Monitoring Time Varying Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaccheo, T. S.; Pernini, T.; Botos, C.; Dobler, J. T.; Blume, N.; Braun, M.; Levine, Z. H.; Pintar, A. L.

2014-12-01

This work presents a methodology for constructing 2D estimates of CO2 field concentrations from integrated open path measurements of CO2 concentrations. It provides a description of the methodology, an assessment based on simulated data and results from preliminary field trials. The Greenhouse gas Laser Imaging Tomography Experiment (GreenLITE) system, currently under development by Exelis and AER, consists of a set of laser-based transceivers and a number of retro-reflectors coupled with a cloud-based compute environment to enable real-time monitoring of integrated CO2 path concentrations, and provides 2D maps of estimated concentrations over an extended area of interest. The GreenLITE transceiver-reflector pairs provide laser absorption spectroscopy (LAS) measurements of differential absorption due to CO2 along intersecting chords within the field of interest. These differential absorption values for the intersecting chords of horizontal path are not only used to construct estimated values of integrated concentration, but also employed in an optimal estimation technique to derive 2D maps of underlying concentration fields. This optimal estimation technique combines these sparse data with in situ measurements of wind speed/direction and an analytic plume model to provide tomographic-like reconstruction of the field of interest. This work provides an assessment of this reconstruction method and preliminary results from the Fall 2014 testing at the Zero Emissions Research and Technology (ZERT) site in Bozeman, Montana. This work is funded in part under the GreenLITE program developed under a cooperative agreement between Exelis and the National Energy and Technology Laboratory (NETL) under the Department of Energy (DOE), contract # DE-FE0012574. Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. is a major partner in this development.

Bayes factors for the linear ballistic accumulator model of decision-making.

PubMed

Evans, Nathan J; Brown, Scott D

2018-04-01

Evidence accumulation models of decision-making have led to advances in several different areas of psychology. These models provide a way to integrate response time and accuracy data, and to describe performance in terms of latent cognitive processes. Testing important psychological hypotheses using cognitive models requires a method to make inferences about different versions of the models which assume different parameters to cause observed effects. The task of model-based inference using noisy data is difficult, and has proven especially problematic with current model selection methods based on parameter estimation. We provide a method for computing Bayes factors through Monte-Carlo integration for the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA; Brown and Heathcote, 2008), a widely used evidence accumulation model. Bayes factors are used frequently for inference with simpler statistical models, and they do not require parameter estimation. In order to overcome the computational burden of estimating Bayes factors via brute force integration, we exploit general purpose graphical processing units; we provide free code for this. This approach allows estimation of Bayes factors via Monte-Carlo integration within a practical time frame. We demonstrate the method using both simulated and real data. We investigate the stability of the Monte-Carlo approximation, and the LBA's inferential properties, in simulation studies.

Integration of animal health, food pathogen and foodborne disease surveillance in the Americas.

PubMed

Hulebak, K; Rodricks, J; Smith DeWaal, C

2013-08-01

This paper describes the characteristics of surveillance and the attempts made in the Americas to institute truly integrated surveillance systems that bring together disease surveillance of medically treated clinical populations with disease surveillance for food-production animals. Characteristics of an ideal, integrated food safety system are described. Systematic surveillance programmes in the Americas vary widely in scope and reliability, and none is fully integrated. Estimates of foodborne disease rates, particularly in North America, are becoming increasingly accurate, and programmes such as those promoted by the Pan American Health Organization are gradually leading to improvements in estimates of the foodborne disease burden in Latin America. Linking foodborne diseases to their sources is necessary for reducing disease incidence, and the World Health Organization's Global Foodborne Infections Network is building global capacity in this area. Activities in these areas in the Americas are described in detail. There is now clear recognition that there are dynamic links between infectious diseases occurring in wildlife and livestock and those occurring in humans, and this has led to calls from organisations such as the US National Academy of Sciences and the American Veterinary Medical Association to integrate surveillance programmes for zoonotic and human diseases. Models for the development of such integrated programmes, at local, national and international levels, are described. To be effective, such models must incorporate programmes to capture information from numerous, discrete surveillance systems in a way that allows rapid analysis to identify zoonotic and human disease connections. No effective integration now exists, but there are signals that governments in the Americas are working together towards this goal.

Using remote sensing and GIS techniques to estimate discharge and recharge. fluxes for the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.; Keith, Turner A.

1996-01-01

The recharge and discharge components of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were defined by remote sensing and GIS techniques that integrated disparate data types to develop a spatially complex representation of near-surface hydrological processes. Image classification methods were applied to multispectral satellite data to produce a vegetation map. This map provided a basis for subsequent evapotranspiration and infiltration estimations. The vegetation map was combined with ancillary data in a GIS to delineate different types of wetlands, phreatophytes and wet playa areas. Existing evapotranspiration-rate estimates were then used to calculate discharge volumes for these areas. A previously used empirical method of groundwater recharge estimation was modified by GIS methods to incorporate data describing soil-moisture conditions, and a recharge potential map was produced. These discharge and recharge maps were readily converted to data arrays for numerical modelling codes. Inverse parameter estimation techniques also used these data to evaluate the reliability and sensitivity of estimated values.

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.

Quantifying biomass consumption and carbon release from the California Rim fire by integrating airborne LiDAR and Landsat OLI data.

PubMed

Garcia, Mariano; Saatchi, Sassan; Casas, Angeles; Koltunov, Alexander; Ustin, Susan; Ramirez, Carlos; Garcia-Gutierrez, Jorge; Balzter, Heiko

2017-02-01

Quantifying biomass consumption and carbon release is critical to understanding the role of fires in the carbon cycle and air quality. We present a methodology to estimate the biomass consumed and the carbon released by the California Rim fire by integrating postfire airborne LiDAR and multitemporal Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery. First, a support vector regression (SVR) model was trained to estimate the aboveground biomass (AGB) from LiDAR-derived metrics over the unburned area. The selected model estimated AGB with an R 2 of 0.82 and RMSE of 59.98 Mg/ha. Second, LiDAR-based biomass estimates were extrapolated to the entire area before and after the fire, using Landsat OLI reflectance bands, Normalized Difference Infrared Index, and the elevation derived from LiDAR data. The extrapolation was performed using SVR models that resulted in R 2 of 0.73 and 0.79 and RMSE of 87.18 (Mg/ha) and 75.43 (Mg/ha) for the postfire and prefire images, respectively. After removing bias from the AGB extrapolations using a linear relationship between estimated and observed values, we estimated the biomass consumption from postfire LiDAR and prefire Landsat maps to be 6.58 ± 0.03 Tg (10 12  g), which translate into 12.06 ± 0.06 Tg CO2 e released to the atmosphere, equivalent to the annual emissions of 2.57 million cars.

Quantifying biomass consumption and carbon release from the California Rim fire by integrating airborne LiDAR and Landsat OLI data

PubMed Central

Saatchi, Sassan; Casas, Angeles; Koltunov, Alexander; Ustin, Susan; Ramirez, Carlos; Garcia‐Gutierrez, Jorge; Balzter, Heiko

2017-01-01

Abstract Quantifying biomass consumption and carbon release is critical to understanding the role of fires in the carbon cycle and air quality. We present a methodology to estimate the biomass consumed and the carbon released by the California Rim fire by integrating postfire airborne LiDAR and multitemporal Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery. First, a support vector regression (SVR) model was trained to estimate the aboveground biomass (AGB) from LiDAR‐derived metrics over the unburned area. The selected model estimated AGB with an R 2 of 0.82 and RMSE of 59.98 Mg/ha. Second, LiDAR‐based biomass estimates were extrapolated to the entire area before and after the fire, using Landsat OLI reflectance bands, Normalized Difference Infrared Index, and the elevation derived from LiDAR data. The extrapolation was performed using SVR models that resulted in R 2 of 0.73 and 0.79 and RMSE of 87.18 (Mg/ha) and 75.43 (Mg/ha) for the postfire and prefire images, respectively. After removing bias from the AGB extrapolations using a linear relationship between estimated and observed values, we estimated the biomass consumption from postfire LiDAR and prefire Landsat maps to be 6.58 ± 0.03 Tg (1012 g), which translate into 12.06 ± 0.06 Tg CO2e released to the atmosphere, equivalent to the annual emissions of 2.57 million cars. PMID:28405539

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Predicting S2S in Deep Time Sedimentary Systems and Implications for Petroleum Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, J.

2013-12-01

The source to sink concept is focused on quantification of the various components of siliciclastic sedimentary systems from initial source areas, through the dispersal system, and deposition within a number of potential ultimate sedimentary sinks. Sequence stratigraphy shows that depositional system are linked through time and show distinctively predictable 3D stratigraphic organization, which can be related to cycles of relative changes in accommodation and sediment supply. For example, erosion and formation of incised fluvial valleys generally occur during periods of falling base level with lowstand reservoir deposits favored in more basin distal settings (e.g. deepwater fans), whereas during highstands of sea level, significantly more sediment may be sequestered in the non-marine realm and more distal environments may favor deposition of slowly-deposited condensed sections, which may make excellent hydrocarbon source rocks. Only more recently have attempts been made to quantify the size and scaling relationships of the ultimate source areas on the basis of analysis of ancient depositional systems, and the use of these scaling relationships to predict the sixe of linked depositional systems along the S2S tract. The maximum size of depositional systems, such as rivers, deltas, and submarine fans, is significantly controlled by the area, relief, and climate regime of the source area, which in turn may linked to the plate tectonic and paleogeographic setting. Classic provenance studies, and more recent use of detrital zircons, provide critical information about source-areas, and may help place limits on the size and relief of a drainage basin. Provenance studies may also provide key information about rates of exhumation of source areas and the link to the tectonic setting, Examination of ancient river systems in the rock record, and especially the largest trunk rivers, which are typically within incised valleys, can also be used to estimate paleodischarge, which in turn can be linked to the drainage basin to make estimates about the size and sale of the source area. The best estimates can be made in basins with well-constrained data that allow details of cross-sectional or plan-view channel-architecture to be determined, such as extensive outcrops, or abundant subsurface data, and especially where higher resolution 3D seismic data are available. Paleodischarge estimates of lowstand Quaternary-age continental-scale ancient rivers from passive continental margins, using seismic data, are orders-of-magnitude higher (1000's of cumecs) than smaller-scale Cretaceous lowstand systems that drained into the Western-Interior Seaway of North America (100s of cumecs). Paleodischarge of rivers can also be estimated independently by integrating estimates of drainage basin area and paleoclimate. These can be compared with paleodischarge estimates based on the river deposits themselves. The integration of paleodischarge estimates with more sophisticated provenance analysis should enable improved use of the sedimentary record to make estimates about the entire S2S system, as opposed to primarily the depositional component. A more quantitative approach to estimating the scale of sedimentary systems, and especially in the context of source areas, also puts constraints on the size and scale of potential hydrocarbon reservoirs and thus has economic value.

On Integral Invariants for Effective 3-D Motion Trajectory Matching and Recognition.

PubMed

Shao, Zhanpeng; Li, Youfu

2016-02-01

Motion trajectories tracked from the motions of human, robots, and moving objects can provide an important clue for motion analysis, classification, and recognition. This paper defines some new integral invariants for a 3-D motion trajectory. Based on two typical kernel functions, we design two integral invariants, the distance and area integral invariants. The area integral invariants are estimated based on the blurred segment of noisy discrete curve to avoid the computation of high-order derivatives. Such integral invariants for a motion trajectory enjoy some desirable properties, such as computational locality, uniqueness of representation, and noise insensitivity. Moreover, our formulation allows the analysis of motion trajectories at a range of scales by varying the scale of kernel function. The features of motion trajectories can thus be perceived at multiscale levels in a coarse-to-fine manner. Finally, we define a distance function to measure the trajectory similarity to find similar trajectories. Through the experiments, we examine the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed integral invariants and find that they can capture the motion cues in trajectory matching and sign recognition satisfactorily.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes

PubMed Central

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647

The computation of 15 deg and 10 deg equal area block terrestrial free air gravity anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hajela, D. P.

1973-01-01

Starting with the set of 23,355 1 deg x 1 deg mean free air gravity anomalies used in Rapp (1972) to form a 5 deg equal area block terrestrial gravity field, the computation of 15 deg equal area block mean free air gravity anomalies is described along with estimates of their standard deviations. A new scheme of an integral division of a 15 deg block into 9 component 300 n. m. blocks, and each 300 n. m. block being subdivided into 25 60 n.mi. blocks, is used. This insures that there is no loss in accuracy, which would have resulted if proportional values according to area were taken of the 5 deg equal area anomalies to form the 15 deg block anomalies. A similar scheme is used for the computation of 10 deg equal area block mean free air gravity anomalies with estimates of their standard deviations. The scheme is general enough to be used for a 30 deg equal area block terrestrial gravity field.

AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. The 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Payne, R. W. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The crop identification procedures used performed were for spring small grains and are conducive to automation. The performance of the machine processing techniques shows a significant improvement over previously evaluated technology; however, the crop calendars require additional development and refinements prior to integration into automated area estimation technology. The integrated technology is capable of producing accurate and consistent spring small grains proportion estimates. Barley proportion estimation technology was not satisfactorily evaluated because LANDSAT sample segment data was not available for high density barley of primary importance in foreign regions and the low density segments examined were not judged to give indicative or unequvocal results. Generally, the spring small grains technology is ready for evaluation in a pilot experiment focusing on sensitivity analysis to a variety of agricultural and meteorological conditions representative of the global environment.

Reliability-Weighted Integration of Audiovisual Signals Can Be Modulated by Top-down Attention

PubMed Central

Noppeney, Uta

2018-01-01

Abstract Behaviorally, it is well established that human observers integrate signals near-optimally weighted in proportion to their reliabilities as predicted by maximum likelihood estimation. Yet, despite abundant behavioral evidence, it is unclear how the human brain accomplishes this feat. In a spatial ventriloquist paradigm, participants were presented with auditory, visual, and audiovisual signals and reported the location of the auditory or the visual signal. Combining psychophysics, multivariate functional MRI (fMRI) decoding, and models of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), we characterized the computational operations underlying audiovisual integration at distinct cortical levels. We estimated observers’ behavioral weights by fitting psychometric functions to participants’ localization responses. Likewise, we estimated the neural weights by fitting neurometric functions to spatial locations decoded from regional fMRI activation patterns. Our results demonstrate that low-level auditory and visual areas encode predominantly the spatial location of the signal component of a region’s preferred auditory (or visual) modality. By contrast, intraparietal sulcus forms spatial representations by integrating auditory and visual signals weighted by their reliabilities. Critically, the neural and behavioral weights and the variance of the spatial representations depended not only on the sensory reliabilities as predicted by the MLE model but also on participants’ modality-specific attention and report (i.e., visual vs. auditory). These results suggest that audiovisual integration is not exclusively determined by bottom-up sensory reliabilities. Instead, modality-specific attention and report can flexibly modulate how intraparietal sulcus integrates sensory signals into spatial representations to guide behavioral responses (e.g., localization and orienting). PMID:29527567

Design, innovation, and rural creative places: Are the arts the cherry on top, or the secret sauce?

PubMed

Wojan, Timothy R; Nichols, Bonnie

2018-01-01

Creative class theory explains the positive relationship between the arts and commercial innovation as the mutual attraction of artists and other creative workers by an unobserved creative milieu. This study explores alternative theories for rural settings, by analyzing establishment-level survey data combined with data on the local arts scene. The study identifies the local contextual factors associated with a strong design orientation, and estimates the impact that a strong design orientation has on the local economy. Data on innovation and design come from a nationally representative sample of establishments in tradable industries. Latent class analysis allows identifying unobserved subpopulations comprised of establishments with different design and innovation orientations. Logistic regression allows estimating the association between an establishment's design orientation and local contextual factors. A quantile instrumental variable regression allows assessing the robustness of the logistic regression results with respect to endogeneity. An estimate of design orientation at the local level derived from the survey is used to examine variation in economic performance during the period of recovery from the Great Recession (2010-2014). Three distinct innovation (substantive, nominal, and non-innovators) and design orientations (design-integrated, "design last finish," and no systematic approach to design) are identified. Innovation- and design-intensive establishments were identified in both rural and urban areas. Rural design-integrated establishments tended to locate in counties with more highly educated workforces and containing at least one performing arts organization. A quantile instrumental variable regression confirmed that the logistic regression result is robust to endogeneity concerns. Finally, rural areas characterized by design-integrated establishments experienced faster growth in wages relative to rural areas characterized by establishments using no systematic approach to design.

Design, innovation, and rural creative places: Are the arts the cherry on top, or the secret sauce?

PubMed Central

Nichols, Bonnie

2018-01-01

Objective Creative class theory explains the positive relationship between the arts and commercial innovation as the mutual attraction of artists and other creative workers by an unobserved creative milieu. This study explores alternative theories for rural settings, by analyzing establishment-level survey data combined with data on the local arts scene. The study identifies the local contextual factors associated with a strong design orientation, and estimates the impact that a strong design orientation has on the local economy. Method Data on innovation and design come from a nationally representative sample of establishments in tradable industries. Latent class analysis allows identifying unobserved subpopulations comprised of establishments with different design and innovation orientations. Logistic regression allows estimating the association between an establishment’s design orientation and local contextual factors. A quantile instrumental variable regression allows assessing the robustness of the logistic regression results with respect to endogeneity. An estimate of design orientation at the local level derived from the survey is used to examine variation in economic performance during the period of recovery from the Great Recession (2010–2014). Results Three distinct innovation (substantive, nominal, and non-innovators) and design orientations (design-integrated, “design last finish,” and no systematic approach to design) are identified. Innovation- and design-intensive establishments were identified in both rural and urban areas. Rural design-integrated establishments tended to locate in counties with more highly educated workforces and containing at least one performing arts organization. A quantile instrumental variable regression confirmed that the logistic regression result is robust to endogeneity concerns. Finally, rural areas characterized by design-integrated establishments experienced faster growth in wages relative to rural areas characterized by establishments using no systematic approach to design. PMID:29489884

Analysis And Assessment Of Forest Cover Change For The State Of Wisconsin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, C. H.; Nelson, M. D.; Stueve, K.; Gormanson, D.

2010-12-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the USDA Forest Service is charged with documenting the status and trends of forest resources of the United States. Since the 1930s, FIA has implemented an intensive field campaign that collects measurements on plots distributed across all ownerships, historically completing analyses which include estimates of forest area, volume, mortality, growth, removals, and timber products output in various ways, such as by ownership, region, or State. Originally a periodic inventory, FIA has been measuring plots on an annual basis since the passage of the Agriculture Research, Extension and Education Reform Act of 1998 (Farm Bill). The resulting change in sampling design and intensity presents challenges to establishing baseline and measuring changes in forest area and biomass. A project jointly sponsored by the Forest Service and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) titled “Integrating Landscape-scale Forest Measurements with Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Models to Improve Carbon Management Decisions” seeks to improve estimates of landscape- and continental-scale carbon dynamics and causes of change for North American forest land, and to use this information to support land management decisions. Specifically, we are developing and applying methods to scale up intensive biomass and carbon measurements from the field campaign to larger land management areas while simultaneously estimating change in the above-ground forest carbon stocks; the State of Wisconsin is being used as the testbed for this large-scale integration remote sensing with field measurements. Once defined, the temporal and spatial patterns of forest resources by watershed for Lake Superior and Lake Michigan outputs are being integrated into water quality assessments for the Great Lakes.

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality.

PubMed

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2015-12-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA).

Impacts of fire management on aboveground tree carbon stocks in Yosemite and Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, John R.; Lutz, James A.; Tarnay, Leland W.; Smith, Douglas G.; Becker, Kendall M.L.; Brooks, Matthew L.

2015-01-01

We compared our landscape carbon estimates in YOSE to remotely-sensed carbon estimates from the NASA–CASA project and found that the two methods roughly agree. Our analysis and comparisons suggest, however, that fire severity should be integrated into future carbon mapping efforts. We illustrate this with an example using the 2013 Rim Fire, which we estimate burned an area containing over 5 Tg of aboveground tree carbon, but likely left a large fraction of that carbon on the landscape if one accounts for fire severity.

Impact analysis of traffic-related air pollution based on real-time traffic and basic meteorological information.

PubMed

Pan, Long; Yao, Enjian; Yang, Yang

2016-12-01

With the rapid development of urbanization and motorization in China, traffic-related air pollution has become a major component of air pollution which constantly jeopardizes public health. This study proposes an integrated framework for estimating the concentration of traffic-related air pollution with real-time traffic and basic meteorological information and also for further evaluating the impact of traffic-related air pollution. First, based on the vehicle emission factor models sensitive to traffic status, traffic emissions are calculated according to the real-time link-based average traffic speed, traffic volume, and vehicular fleet composition. Then, based on differences in meteorological conditions, traffic pollution sources are divided into line sources and point sources, and the corresponding methods to determine the dynamic affecting areas are also proposed. Subsequently, with basic meteorological data, Gaussian dispersion model and puff integration model are applied respectively to estimate the concentration of traffic-related air pollution. Finally, the proposed estimating framework is applied to calculate the distribution of CO concentration in the main area of Beijing, and the population exposure is also calculated to evaluate the impact of traffic-related air pollution on public health. Results show that there is a certain correlation between traffic indicators (i.e., traffic speed and traffic intensity) of the affecting area and traffic-related CO concentration of the target grid, which indicates the methods to determine the affecting areas are reliable. Furthermore, the reliability of the proposed estimating framework is verified by comparing the predicted and the observed ambient CO concentration. In addition, results also show that the traffic-related CO concentration is higher in morning and evening peak hours, and has a heavier impact on public health within the Fourth Ring Road of Beijing due to higher population density and higher CO concentration under calm wind condition in this area. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coarse-Grain Bandwidth Estimation Techniques for Large-Scale Space Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheung, Kar-Ming; Jennings, Esther

2013-01-01

In this paper, we describe a top-down analysis and simulation approach to size the bandwidths of a store-andforward network for a given network topology, a mission traffic scenario, and a set of data types with different latency requirements. We use these techniques to estimate the wide area network (WAN) bandwidths of the ground links for different architecture options of the proposed Integrated Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) Network.

A multiscale Bayesian data integration approach for mapping air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

PubMed

Wainwright, Haruko M; Seki, Akiyuki; Chen, Jinsong; Saito, Kimiaki

2017-02-01

This paper presents a multiscale data integration method to estimate the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. We integrate various types of datasets, such as ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. The Bayesian method allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the estimates, and to provide the confidence intervals that are critical for robust decision-making. Although this approach is primarily data-driven, it has great flexibility to include mechanistic models for representing radiation transport or other complex correlations. We demonstrate our approach using three types of datasets collected at the same time over Fukushima City in Japan: (1) coarse-resolution airborne surveys covering the entire area, (2) car surveys along major roads, and (3) walk surveys in multiple neighborhoods. Results show that the method can successfully integrate three types of datasets and create an integrated map (including the confidence intervals) of air dose rates over the domain in high resolution. Moreover, this study provides us with various insights into the characteristics of each dataset, as well as radiocaesium distribution. In particular, the urban areas show high heterogeneity in the contaminant distribution due to human activities as well as large discrepancy among different surveys due to such heterogeneity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Working paper : estimating the federal proportion of funds expended on ITS infrastructure for fiscal year 2000

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

In January 1996, Secretary Pena set a goal of deploying the integrated metropolitan Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) infrastructure in 75 of the nation's largest metropolitan areas by 2006. In 1997, the U.S. Department of Transportation initia...

An overview of distributed microgrid state estimation and control for smart grids.

PubMed

Rana, Md Masud; Li, Li

2015-02-12

Given the significant concerns regarding carbon emission from the fossil fuels, global warming and energy crisis, the renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) are going to be integrated in the smart grid. This grid can spread the intelligence of the energy distribution and control system from the central unit to the long-distance remote areas, thus enabling accurate state estimation (SE) and wide-area real-time monitoring of these intermittent energy sources. In contrast to the traditional methods of SE, this paper proposes a novel accuracy dependent Kalman filter (KF) based microgrid SE for the smart grid that uses typical communication systems. Then this article proposes a discrete-time linear quadratic regulation to control the state deviations of the microgrid incorporating multiple DERs. Therefore, integrating these two approaches with application to the smart grid forms a novel contributions in green energy and control research communities. Finally, the simulation results show that the proposed KF based microgrid SE and control algorithm provides an accurate SE and control compared with the existing method.

Comparison Of Landscape-level Carbon Flux Estimates from Budgeting The Planetary Boundary Layer And Footprinting On Remote Sensing Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B.; Chen, J. M.; Mo, G.

2006-12-01

Carbon balance estimation at the landscape/regional scale is a challenge because of the heterogeneity of the land surface and the nonlinearity inherent in ecophysiological processes. Two methodologies, a simple atmospheric boundary-layer budgeting method and an integrated modeling method, were explored and compared in this study. Studies of the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) budget of CO2 have the potential to provide information on carbon balance of the land surface on a regional scale. Indeed, the surface area of integration by the ABL moving through a tower in one day was estimated to be ~104 km2. Two novel methodologies to retrieve the landscape/regional carbon balance information captured by the CO2 concentration measurements are explored and compared in this study: boundary-layer budgeting and remote sensing-based footprint integration. We investigated four boreal continental sites in this study. Boundary-layer budgeting: By assuming the horizontal advection is negligible, the regional surface net flux (representative of an upwind area ~105 km2) can be calculated as, Fc=(Cm-CFT)ù+dC/dt*zi, where ù is the mean vertical velocity, zi is the mean ABL height, and and are the biweekly mean mixing ratio of CO2 in the ABL and the free troposphere, respectively. ù is from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data, while zi was simulated by an one-dimensional ABL model. The CO2 flux in the upwind area of the tower was also estimated based on ecosystem modeling using remote sensing measurements. Remote sensing-based footprint integration: The total regional flux captured by the sensor on a tower (mixing ratio) is the weighted sum of the upwind footprint source areas (Ømega), Fc= Σ FiWi, where Fi and Wi are the CO2 flux and its weighting factor for each pixel, respectively. Fiis calculated using an ecosystem model (BEPS: Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator). Wiis comparative contribution factor of footprint function for each pixel within the whole footprint area as, Wi= fi/Σ fi, while the footprint function fi (the pixel i with x,y coordinates; x and y are along and the cross daily mean wind direction, respectively) is computed using a concentration footprint model as, fi(x,y,zm-z0)=Dy(x,y)Dz(x,zm)/U(x) Where Dy and Dz are the crosswind and vertical concentration distribution function, respectively and U(x) is the effective speed of plume advection. They are dependant on standard surface-layer scaling parameters and based on an analytical solution of Eulerian theory. Methodology comparison: The regional fluxes estimated using these two methods matched well. These regional net CO2 flux estimates were also comparable to local-scale measurements by eddy covariance techniques. The calculated upwind regional CO2 flux shows considerable seasonal and inter-annual variations. Annual regional flux was sensitive to air temperature in boreal regions and the temperature-sensitivities were region dependent. Larger fluxes are found in the warmer growing seasons and warmer years in the boreal forest regions.

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a different number of input products. For the globe the calculated relative error estimate from this study is about 9%, which is also probably a slight overestimate. These tropical and global estimated bias errors provide one estimate of the current state of knowledge of the planet's mean precipitation.

A new method for temperature-field reconstruction during ultrasound-monitored cryosurgery using potential-field analogy.

PubMed

Thaokar, Chandrajit; Rossi, Michael R; Rabin, Yoed

2016-02-01

The current study aims at developing computational tools in order to gain information about the thermal history in areas invisible to ultrasound imaging during cryosurgery. This invisibility results from the high absorption rate of the ultrasound energy by the frozen region, which leads to an apparent opacity in the cryotreated area and a shadow behind it. A proof-of-concept for freezing-front estimation is demonstrated in the current study, using the new potential-field analogy method (PFAM). This method is further integrated with a recently developed temperature-field reconstruction method (TFRM) to estimate the temperature distribution within the frozen region. This study uses prostate cryosurgery as a developmental model and trans-rectal ultrasound imaging as a choice of practice. Results of this study indicate that the proposed PFAM is a viable and computationally inexpensive solution to estimate the extent of freezing in the acoustic shadow region. Comparison of PFAM estimations and experimental data shows an average mismatch of less than 2 mm in freezing-front location, which is comparable to the uncertainty in ultrasound imaging. Comparison of the integrated PFAM + TFRM scheme with a full-scale finite-elements analysis (FEA) indicates an average mismatch of 0.9 mm for the freezing front location and 0.1 mm for the lethal temperature isotherm of -45 °C. Comparison of the integrated PFAM + TFRM scheme with experimental temperature measurements show a difference in the range of 2 °C and 6 °C for selected points of measurement. Results of this study demonstrate the integrated PFAM + TFRM scheme as a viable and computationally inexpensive means to gain information about the thermal history in the frozen region during ultrasound-monitored cryosurgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

1976-01-01

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

Numerosity estimation benefits from transsaccadic information integration

PubMed Central

Hübner, Carolin; Schütz, Alexander C.

2017-01-01

Humans achieve a stable and homogeneous representation of their visual environment, although visual processing varies across the visual field. Here we investigated the circumstances under which peripheral and foveal information is integrated for numerosity estimation across saccades. We asked our participants to judge the number of black and white dots on a screen. Information was presented either in the periphery before a saccade, in the fovea after a saccade, or in both areas consecutively to measure transsaccadic integration. In contrast to previous findings, we found an underestimation of numerosity for foveal presentation and an overestimation for peripheral presentation. We used a maximum-likelihood model to predict accuracy and reliability in the transsaccadic condition based on peripheral and foveal values. We found near-optimal integration of peripheral and foveal information, consistently with previous findings about orientation integration. In three consecutive experiments, we disrupted object continuity between the peripheral and foveal presentations to probe the limits of transsaccadic integration. Even for global changes on our numerosity stimuli, no influence of object discontinuity was observed. Overall, our results suggest that transsaccadic integration is a robust mechanism that also works for complex visual features such as numerosity and is operative despite internal or external mismatches between foveal and peripheral information. Transsaccadic integration facilitates an accurate and reliable perception of our environment. PMID:29149766

Banana orchard inventory using IRS LISS sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishant, Nilay; Upadhayay, Gargi; Vyas, S. P.; Manjunath, K. R.

2016-04-01

Banana is one of the major crops of India with increasing export potential. It is important to estimate the production and acreage of the crop. Thus, the present study was carried out to evolve a suitable methodology for estimating banana acreage. Area estimation methodology was devised around the fact that unlike other crops, the time of plantation of banana is different for different farmers as per their local practices or conditions. Thus in order to capture the peak signatures, biowindow of 6 months was considered, its NDVI pattern studied and the optimum two months were considered when banana could be distinguished from other competing crops. The final area of banana for the particular growing cycle was computed by integrating the areas of these two months using LISS III data with spatial resolution of 23m. Estimated banana acreage in the three districts were 11857Ha, 15202ha and 11373Ha for Bharuch, Anand and Vadodara respectively with corresponding accuracy of 91.8%, 90% and 88.16%. Study further compared the use of LISS IV data of 5.8m spatial resolution for estimation of banana using object based as well as per-pixel classification and the results were compared with statistical reports for both the approaches. In the current paper we depict the various methodologies to accurately estimate the banana acreage.

Determination of Cenozoic sedimentary structures using integrated geophysical surveys: A case study in the Barkol Basin, Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Kai; Chen, Chao; Du, Jinsong; Wang, Limin; Lei, Binhua

2018-01-01

Thickness estimation of sedimentary basin is a complex geological problem, especially in an orogenic environment. Intense and multiple tectonic movements and climate changes result in inhomogeneity of sedimentary layers and basement configurations, which making sedimentary structure modelling difficult. In this study, integrated geophysical methods, including gravity, magnetotelluric (MT) sounding and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), were used to estimate basement relief to understand the geological structure and evolution of the eastern Barkol Basin in China. This basin formed with the uplift of the eastern Tianshan during the Cenozoic. Gravity anomaly map revealed the framework of the entire area, and ERT as well as MT sections reflected the geoelectric features of the Cenozoic two-layer distribution. Therefore, gravity data, constrained by MT, ERT and boreholes, were utilized to estimate the spatial distribution of the Quaternary layer. The gravity effect of the Quaternary layer related to the Tertiary layer was later subtracted to obtain the residual anomaly for inversion. For the Tertiary layer, the study area was divided into several parts because of lateral difference of density contrasts. Gravity data were interpreted to determine the density contrast constrained by the MT results. The basement relief can be verified by geological investigation, including the uplift process and regional tectonic setting. The agreement between geophysical survey and prior information from geology emphasizes the importance of integrated geophysical survey as a complementary means of geological studies in this region.

Information Technology Supports Integration of Satellite Imagery with Irrigation Management in California's Central Valley

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Remotely sensed data can potentially be used to develop crop coefficient estimates over large areas and make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate. A demonstration system is being developed under NASA's Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to automatically r...

Development of a prototype vehicle-infrastructure integration system for real-time traffic management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-08-01

Freeway congestion is a major problem in many urban areas. It has been estimated that freeway incidents (events that impede the flow of traffic: accidents, disabled vehicles, etc.) account for one-half to three-fourths of the total congestion on metr...

Estimating Unbiased Land Cover Change Areas In The Colombian Amazon Using Landsat Time Series And Statistical Inference Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arevalo, P. A.; Olofsson, P.; Woodcock, C. E.

2017-12-01

Unbiased estimation of the areas of conversion between land categories ("activity data") and their uncertainty is crucial for providing more robust calculations of carbon emissions to the atmosphere, as well as their removals. This is particularly important for the REDD+ mechanism of UNFCCC where an economic compensation is tied to the magnitude and direction of such fluxes. Dense time series of Landsat data and statistical protocols are becoming an integral part of forest monitoring efforts, but there are relatively few studies in the tropics focused on using these methods to advance operational MRV systems (Monitoring, Reporting and Verification). We present the results of a prototype methodology for continuous monitoring and unbiased estimation of activity data that is compliant with the IPCC Approach 3 for representation of land. We used a break detection algorithm (Continuous Change Detection and Classification, CCDC) to fit pixel-level temporal segments to time series of Landsat data in the Colombian Amazon. The segments were classified using a Random Forest classifier to obtain annual maps of land categories between 2001 and 2016. Using these maps, a biannual stratified sampling approach was implemented and unbiased stratified estimators constructed to calculate area estimates with confidence intervals for each of the stable and change classes. Our results provide evidence of a decrease in primary forest as a result of conversion to pastures, as well as increase in secondary forest as pastures are abandoned and the forest allowed to regenerate. Estimating areas of other land transitions proved challenging because of their very small mapped areas compared to stable classes like forest, which corresponds to almost 90% of the study area. Implications on remote sensing data processing, sample allocation and uncertainty reduction are also discussed.

Global distribution of plant-extractable water capacity of soil

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, K.A.; Willmott, C.J.

1996-01-01

Plant-extractable water capacity of soil is the amount of water that can be extracted from the soil to fulfill evapotranspiration demands. It is often assumed to be spatially invariant in large-scale computations of the soil-water balance. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that this assumption is incorrect. In this paper, we estimate the global distribution of the plant-extractable water capacity of soil. A representative soil profile, characterized by horizon (layer) particle size data and thickness, was created for each soil unit mapped by FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/Unesco. Soil organic matter was estimated empirically from climate data. Plant rooting depths and ground coverages were obtained from a vegetation characteristic data set. At each 0.5?? ?? 0.5?? grid cell where vegetation is present, unit available water capacity (cm water per cm soil) was estimated from the sand, clay, and organic content of each profile horizon, and integrated over horizon thickness. Summation of the integrated values over the lesser of profile depth and root depth produced an estimate of the plant-extractable water capacity of soil. The global average of the estimated plant-extractable water capacities of soil is 8??6 cm (Greenland, Antarctica and bare soil areas excluded). Estimates are less than 5, 10 and 15 cm - over approximately 30, 60, and 89 per cent of the area, respectively. Estimates reflect the combined effects of soil texture, soil organic content, and plant root depth or profile depth. The most influential and uncertain parameter is the depth over which the plant-extractable water capacity of soil is computed, which is usually limited by root depth. Soil texture exerts a lesser, but still substantial, influence. Organic content, except where concentrations are very high, has relatively little effect.

A mapping and monitoring assessment of the Philippines' mangrove forests from 1990 to 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Jordan; Napton, Darrell; Giri, Chandra; Graesser, Jordan

2014-01-01

Information on the present condition and spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove forests is needed for land-change studies and integrated natural resources planning and management. Although several national mangrove estimates for the Philippines exist, information is unavailable at sufficient spatial and thematic detail for change analysis. Historical and contemporary mangrove distribution maps of the Philippines for 1990 and 2010 were prepared at nominal 30-m spatial resolution using Landsat satellite data. Image classification was performed using a supervised decision tree classification approach. Additionally, decadal land-cover change maps from 1990 to 2010 were prepared to depict changes in mangrove area. Total mangrove area decreased 10.5% from 1990 to 2010. Comparison of estimates produced from this study with selected historical mangrove area estimates revealed that total mangrove area decreased by approximately half (51.8%) from 1918 to 2010. This study provides the most current and reliable data regarding the Philippines mangrove area and spatial distribution and delineates where and when mangrove change has occurred in recent decades. The results from this study are useful for developing conservation strategies, biodiversity loss mitigation efforts, and future monitoring and analysis.

Estimating transmission of avian influenza in wild birds from incomplete epizootic data: implications for surveillance and disease spreac

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henaux, Viviane; Jane Parmley,; Catherine Soos,; Samuel, Michael D.

2013-01-01

Synthesis and applications. Our study highlights the potential of integrating incomplete surveillance data with epizootic models to quantify disease transmission and immunity. This modelling approach provides an important tool to understand spatial and temporal epizootic dynamics and inform disease surveillance. Our findings suggest focusing highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) surveillance on postbreeding areas where mortality of immunologically naïve hatch-year birds is most likely to occur, and collecting serology to enhance HPAIv detection. Our modelling approach can integrate various types of disease data facilitating its use with data from other surveillance programs (as illustrated by the estimation of infection rate during an HPAIv outbreak in mute swansCygnus olor in Europe).

Evaluation of two "integrated" polarimetric Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) algorithms at C-band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabary, Pierre; Boumahmoud, Abdel-Amin; Andrieu, Hervé; Thompson, Robert J.; Illingworth, Anthony J.; Le Bouar, Erwan; Testud, Jacques

2011-08-01

SummaryTwo so-called "integrated" polarimetric rate estimation techniques, ZPHI ( Testud et al., 2000) and ZZDR ( Illingworth and Thompson, 2005), are evaluated using 12 episodes of the year 2005 observed by the French C-band operational Trappes radar, located near Paris. The term "integrated" means that the concentration parameter of the drop size distribution is assumed to be constant over some area and the algorithms retrieve it using the polarimetric variables in that area. The evaluation is carried out in ideal conditions (no partial beam blocking, no ground-clutter contamination, no bright band contamination, a posteriori calibration of the radar variables ZH and ZDR) using hourly rain gauges located at distances less than 60 km from the radar. Also included in the comparison, for the sake of benchmarking, is a conventional Z = 282 R1.66 estimator, with and without attenuation correction and with and without adjustment by rain gauges as currently done operationally at Météo France. Under those ideal conditions, the two polarimetric algorithms, which rely solely on radar data, appear to perform as well if not better, pending on the measurements conditions (attenuation, rain rates, …), than the conventional algorithms, even when the latter take into account rain gauges through the adjustment scheme. ZZDR with attenuation correction is the best estimator for hourly rain gauge accumulations lower than 5 mm h -1 and ZPHI is the best one above that threshold. A perturbation analysis has been conducted to assess the sensitivity of the various estimators with respect to biases on ZH and ZDR, taking into account the typical accuracy and stability that can be reasonably achieved with modern operational radars these days (1 dB on ZH and 0.2 dB on ZDR). A +1 dB positive bias on ZH (radar too hot) results in a +14% overestimation of the rain rate with the conventional estimator used in this study (Z = 282R1.66), a -19% underestimation with ZPHI and a +23% overestimation with ZZDR. Additionally, a +0.2 dB positive bias on ZDR results in a typical rain rate under- estimation of 15% by ZZDR.

Global estimation of CO emissions using three sets of satellite data for burned area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Atul K.

Using three sets of satellite data for burned areas together with the tree cover imagery and a biogeochemical component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) the global emissions of CO and associated uncertainties are estimated for the year 2000. The available fuel load (AFL) is calculated using the ISAM biogeochemical model, which accounts for the aboveground and surface fuel removed by land clearing for croplands and pasturelands, as well as the influence on fuel load of various ecosystem processes (such as stomatal conductance, evapotranspiration, plant photosynthesis and respiration, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition) and important feedback mechanisms (such as climate and fertilization feedback mechanism). The ISAM estimated global total AFL in the year 2000 was about 687 Pg AFL. All forest ecosystems account for about 90% of the global total AFL. The estimated global CO emissions based on three global burned area satellite data sets (GLOBSCAR, GBA, and Global Fire Emissions Database version 2 (GFEDv2)) for the year 2000 ranges between 320 and 390 Tg CO. Emissions from open fires are highest in tropical Africa, primarily due to forest cutting and burning. The estimated overall uncertainty in global CO emission is about ±65%, with the highest uncertainty occurring in North Africa and Middle East region (±99%). The results of this study suggest that the uncertainties in the calculated emissions stem primarily from the area burned data.

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards—A prewildfire evaluation for the Jemez Mountains, north-central New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Haas, Jessica R.

2016-08-11

Wildfire can substantially increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire or subsequent rainfall intensity and duration cannot be known, probabilities of fire and debris‑flow occurrence for given locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious potential debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Jemez Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in both the unburned and previously burned areas of the Jemez Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris-flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Forest Service.Of the 4,998 subbasins modeled for this study, computed debris-flow probabilities in 671 subbasins were greater than 80 percent in response to the 100-year recurrence interval, 30-minute duration rainfall event. These subbasins ranged in size from 0.01 to 6.57 square kilometers (km2), with an average area of 0.29 km2, and were mostly steep, upstream tributaries to larger channels in the area. Modeled debris-flow volumes in 465 subbasins were greater than 10,000 cubic meters (m3), and 14 of those subbasins had modeled debris‑flow volumes greater than 100,000 m3.The rankings of integrated relative debris-flow hazard indexes for each subbasin were generated by multiplying the individual subbasin values for debris-flow volume, debris‑flow probability, and average burn probability. The subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent typically are large, upland tributaries to canyons and channels primarily in the Upper Rio Grande and Rio Grande-Santa Fe watershed areas. No subbasins in this group have basin areas less than 1.0 km2. Many of these areas already had significant mass‑wasting episodes following the Las Conchas Fire in 2011. Other subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent are scattered throughout the Jemez River watershed area, including some subbasins in the interior of the Valles Caldera. Only a few subbasins in the top integrated hazard index group are in the Rio Chama watershed area.This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In north‑central New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being done to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was designed to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality

PubMed Central

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2016-01-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991–2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). PMID:27468328

The role of differential delays in integrating transient visual and proprioceptive information

PubMed Central

Cameron, Brendan D.; de la Malla, Cristina; López-Moliner, Joan

2014-01-01

Many actions involve limb movements toward a target. Visual and proprioceptive estimates are available online, and by optimally combining (Ernst and Banks, 2002) both modalities during the movement, the system can increase the precision of the hand estimate. The notion that both sensory modalities are integrated is also motivated by the intuition that we do not consciously perceive any discrepancy between the felt and seen hand's positions. This coherence as a result of integration does not necessarily imply realignment between the two modalities (Smeets et al., 2006). For example, the two estimates (visual and proprioceptive) might be different without either of them (e.g., proprioception) ever being adjusted after recovering the other (e.g., vision). The implication that the felt and seen positions might be different has a temporal analog. Because the actual feedback from the hand at a given instantaneous position reaches brain areas at different times for proprioception and vision (shorter for proprioception), the corresponding instantaneous unisensory position estimates will be different, with the proprioceptive one being ahead of the visual one. Based on the assumption that the system integrates optimally and online the available evidence from both senses, we introduce a temporal mechanism that explains the reported overestimation of hand positions when vision is occluded for active and passive movements (Gritsenko et al., 2007) without the need to resort to initial feedforward estimates (Wolpert et al., 1995). We set up hypotheses to test the validity of the model, and we contrast simulation-based predictions with empirical data. PMID:24550870

Modelling gas dynamics in 1D ducts with abrupt area change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menina, R.; Saurel, R.; Zereg, M.; Houas, L.

2011-09-01

Most gas dynamic computations in industrial ducts are done in one dimension with cross-section-averaged Euler equations. This poses a fundamental difficulty as soon as geometrical discontinuities are present. The momentum equation contains a non-conservative term involving a surface pressure integral, responsible for momentum loss. Definition of this integral is very difficult from a mathematical standpoint as the flow may contain other discontinuities (shocks, contact discontinuities). From a physical standpoint, geometrical discontinuities induce multidimensional vortices that modify the surface pressure integral. In the present paper, an improved 1D flow model is proposed. An extra energy (or entropy) equation is added to the Euler equations expressing the energy and turbulent pressure stored in the vortices generated by the abrupt area variation. The turbulent energy created by the flow-area change interaction is determined by a specific estimate of the surface pressure integral. Model's predictions are compared with 2D-averaged results from numerical solution of the Euler equations. Comparison with shock tube experiments is also presented. The new 1D-averaged model improves the conventional cross-section-averaged Euler equations and is able to reproduce the main flow features.

Estimation method of state-of-charge for lithium-ion battery used in hybrid electric vehicles based on variable structure extended kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yong; Ma, Zilin; Tang, Gongyou; Chen, Zheng; Zhang, Nong

2016-07-01

Since the main power source of hybrid electric vehicle(HEV) is supplied by the power battery, the predicted performance of power battery, especially the state-of-charge(SOC) estimation has attracted great attention in the area of HEV. However, the value of SOC estimation could not be greatly precise so that the running performance of HEV is greatly affected. A variable structure extended kalman filter(VSEKF)-based estimation method, which could be used to analyze the SOC of lithium-ion battery in the fixed driving condition, is presented. First, the general lower-order battery equivalent circuit model(GLM), which includes column accumulation model, open circuit voltage model and the SOC output model, is established, and the off-line and online model parameters are calculated with hybrid pulse power characteristics(HPPC) test data. Next, a VSEKF estimation method of SOC, which integrates the ampere-hour(Ah) integration method and the extended Kalman filter(EKF) method, is executed with different adaptive weighting coefficients, which are determined according to the different values of open-circuit voltage obtained in the corresponding charging or discharging processes. According to the experimental analysis, the faster convergence speed and more accurate simulating results could be obtained using the VSEKF method in the running performance of HEV. The error rate of SOC estimation with the VSEKF method is focused in the range of 5% to 10% comparing with the range of 20% to 30% using the EKF method and the Ah integration method. In Summary, the accuracy of the SOC estimation in the lithium-ion battery cell and the pack of lithium-ion battery system, which is obtained utilizing the VSEKF method has been significantly improved comparing with the Ah integration method and the EKF method. The VSEKF method utilizing in the SOC estimation in the lithium-ion pack of HEV can be widely used in practical driving conditions.

Development and Evaluation of New Methods for Estimating Albedo-area for Stable GEOs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, T. E.; Gregory, S. A.; Dentamaro, A.; Ernst, M.; Hollon, J.; Kruchten, A.; Chaudhary, A. B.; Dao, P. D.

Although direct measurements of the projected areas of various Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) satellite facets are impossible without high-resolution imaging, estimates of the albedo-Area (aA) product lead to the possibility of inferring the area. Such size estimates are an integral part of its identity. We are engaged in parallel development of two methods for calculating aA for the body/communication antennae structures and one method for the solar panels. We have previously reported on the Two Facet Model (2FM) method for body aA, and here we discuss a method based on differences between new observations and a baseline catalog that has been constructed from the GEO Observations with Longitudinal Diversity Simultaneously (GOLDS) data. We report on evaluations of the 2FM and differential method (DM) algorithm results. We also discuss a new method of estimating solar panel aA by fitting new data that include specular glints. All of these measurement methods are compared to models and simulations that serve as a proxy for ground truth. Because of the partially directional nature of the composite Bi-directional Reflectivity Distribution Function (BRDF) of all bus-mounted appendages, variance of body aA results is expected to be significant. Short-term and long-term variance of the derived aAs will also be discussed.

Rain volume estimation over areas using satellite and radar data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doneaud, A. A.; Vonderhaar, T. H.

1985-01-01

The feasibility of rain volume estimation over fixed and floating areas was investigated using rapid scan satellite data following a technique recently developed with radar data, called the Area Time Integral (ATI) technique. The radar and rapid scan GOES satellite data were collected during the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment (CCOPE) and North Dakota Cloud Modification Project (NDCMP). Six multicell clusters and cells were analyzed to the present time. A two-cycle oscillation emphasizing the multicell character of the clusters is demonstrated. Three clusters were selected on each day, 12 June and 2 July. The 12 June clusters occurred during the daytime, while the 2 July clusters during the nighttime. A total of 86 time steps of radar and 79 time steps of satellite images were analyzed. There were approximately 12-min time intervals between radar scans on the average.

Calculating Soil Wetness, Evapotranspiration and Carbon Cycle Processes Over Large Grid Areas Using a New Scaling Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, Piers

2012-01-01

Soil wetness typically shows great spatial variability over the length scales of general circulation model (GCM) grid areas (approx 100 km ), and the functions relating evapotranspiration and photosynthetic rate to local-scale (approx 1 m) soil wetness are highly non-linear. Soil respiration is also highly dependent on very small-scale variations in soil wetness. We therefore expect significant inaccuracies whenever we insert a single grid area-average soil wetness value into a function to calculate any of these rates for the grid area. For the particular case of evapotranspiration., this method - use of a grid-averaged soil wetness value - can also provoke severe oscillations in the evapotranspiration rate and soil wetness under some conditions. A method is presented whereby the probability distribution timction(pdf) for soil wetness within a grid area is represented by binning. and numerical integration of the binned pdf is performed to provide a spatially-integrated wetness stress term for the whole grid area, which then permits calculation of grid area fluxes in a single operation. The method is very accurate when 10 or more bins are used, can deal realistically with spatially variable precipitation, conserves moisture exactly and allows for precise modification of the soil wetness pdf after every time step. The method could also be applied to other ecological problems where small-scale processes must be area-integrated, or upscaled, to estimate fluxes over large areas, for example in treatments of the terrestrial carbon budget or trace gas generation.

Bradley Fighting Vehicle Gunnery: An Analysis of Engagement Strategies for the M242 25-mm Automatic Gun

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-03-01

source for this estimate of eight rounds per BMP target. According to analyst Donna Quirido, AMSAA does not provide or support any such estimate (30...engagement or in the case of. the Bradley, stabilization inaccuracies. According to Helgert: These errors give rise to aim-wander, a term that derives from...the same area. (6:14_5) The resulting approximation to the truncated normal integral has a maximum relative error of 0.0075. Using Polya -Williams, an

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2000-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

An improved global wind resource estimate for integrated assessment models

DOE PAGES

Eurek, Kelly; Sullivan, Patrick; Gleason, Michael; ...

2017-11-25

This study summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquelymore » detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km 2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.« less

An improved global wind resource estimate for integrated assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eurek, Kelly; Sullivan, Patrick; Gleason, Michael

This study summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquelymore » detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km 2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.« less

Estimation of monthly water yields and flows for 1951-2012 for the United States portion of the Great Lakes Basin with AFINCH

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.; Holtschlag, David J.; Reeves, Howard W.; Hoard, Christopher J.; Fuller, Lori M.

2015-01-01

Monthly water yields from 105,829 catchments and corresponding flows in 107,691 stream segments were estimated for water years 1951–2012 in the Great Lakes Basin in the United States. Both sets of estimates were computed by using the Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels (AFINCH) application within the NHDPlus geospatial data framework. AFINCH provides an environment to develop constrained regression models to integrate monthly streamflow and water-use data with monthly climatic data and fixed basin characteristics data available within NHDPlus or supplied by the user. For this study, the U.S. Great Lakes Basin was partitioned into seven study areas by grouping selected hydrologic subregions and adjoining cataloguing units. This report documents the regression models and data used to estimate monthly water yields and flows in each study area. Estimates of monthly water yields and flows are presented in a Web-based mapper application. Monthly flow time series for individual stream segments can be retrieved from the Web application and used to approximate monthly flow-duration characteristics and to identify possible trends.

Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Regina; Shaffer, Steven; Stokes, James; Goldstein, David

1987-01-01

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method.

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, Mark; Boisvert, Ben; Escala, Diego

2009-01-01

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

An Overview of Distributed Microgrid State Estimation and Control for Smart Grids

PubMed Central

Rana, Md Masud; Li, Li

2015-01-01

Given the significant concerns regarding carbon emission from the fossil fuels, global warming and energy crisis, the renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) are going to be integrated in the smart grid. This grid can spread the intelligence of the energy distribution and control system from the central unit to the long-distance remote areas, thus enabling accurate state estimation (SE) and wide-area real-time monitoring of these intermittent energy sources. In contrast to the traditional methods of SE, this paper proposes a novel accuracy dependent Kalman filter (KF) based microgrid SE for the smart grid that uses typical communication systems. Then this article proposes a discrete-time linear quadratic regulation to control the state deviations of the microgrid incorporating multiple DERs. Therefore, integrating these two approaches with application to the smart grid forms a novel contributions in green energy and control research communities. Finally, the simulation results show that the proposed KF based microgrid SE and control algorithm provides an accurate SE and control compared with the existing method. PMID:25686316

Integration of Harvest and Time-to-Event Data Used to Estimate Demographic Parameters for White-tailed Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Andrew S.

An integral component of managing game species is an understanding of population dynamics and relative abundance. Harvest data are frequently used to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer. Unless harvest age-structure is representative of the population age-structure and harvest vulnerability remains constant from year to year, these data alone are of limited value. Additional model structure and auxiliary information has accommodated this shortcoming. Specifically, integrated age-at-harvest (AAH) state-space population models can formally combine multiple sources of data, and regularization via hierarchical model structure can increase flexibility of model parameters. I collected known fates data, which I evaluated and used to inform trends in survival parameters for an integrated AAH model. I used temperature and snow depth covariates to predict survival outside of the hunting season, and opening weekend temperature and percent of corn harvest covariates to predict hunting season survival. When auxiliary empirical data were unavailable for the AAH model, moderately informative priors provided sufficient information for convergence and parameter estimates. The AAH model was most sensitive to errors in initial abundance, but this error was calibrated after 3 years. Among vital rates, the AAH model was most sensitive to reporting rates (percentage of mortality during the hunting season related to harvest). The AAH model, using only harvest data, was able to track changing abundance trends due to changes in survival rates even when prior models did not inform these changes (i.e. prior models were constant when truth varied). I also compared AAH model results with estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WIDNR). Trends in abundance estimates from both models were similar, although AAH model predictions were systematically higher than WIDNR estimates in the East study area. When I incorporated auxiliary information (i.e. integrated AAH model) about survival outside the hunting season from known fates data, predicted trends appeared more closely related to what was expected. Disagreements between the AAH model and WIDNR estimates in the East were likely related to biased predictions for reporting and survival rates from the AAH model.

Phytoremediative urban design: transforming a derelict and polluted harbour area into a green and productive neighbourhood.

PubMed

Wilschut, M; Theuws, P A W; Duchhart, I

2013-12-01

Many urban areas are polluted by industrial activities and waste disposal in landfills. Since conventional soil remediation techniques are costly and unsustainable, phytoremediation might offer an alternative. In this article, we explore how phytoremediation can be integrated into the transformation of urban post-industrial areas, while improving public space. Buiksloterham, a polluted and deprived industrial area in Amsterdam, serves as case study. Buiksloterham is polluted with heavy metals, with Zinc (Zn) concentrations being the highest. A regression-model for Alpine Pennycress (Thlaspi caerulescens) is used to estimate the time needed to remediate the site. This reveals a conflict in time between remediation and urban development. A research by design experiment shows how to overcome this conflict by dealing with polluted soil innovatively while emphasizing spatial and aesthetic qualities of the phytoremediation plant species. The resulting landscape framework integrates phytoremediation with biomass production and gives new ecological, economic and social value to Buiksloterham. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating Phosphorus Movement with Soil and Water Loss in the Daily Erosion Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sklenar, Tim; Perez-Bidegain, Mario; Cruse, Richard; Gelder, Brian; Herzmann, Daryl

2016-04-01

The Daily Erosion Project (DEP) is an ongoing modelling effort which is now in its second generation. DEP provides comprehensive and dynamic estimates of sediment delivery, soil erosion, and hill slope runoff for agricultural land areas across the Midwestern United States every day for Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC 12) size watersheds. Results are posted every morning on the Internet at dailyerosion.org. Currently DEP covers all of Iowa and portions of Kansas and Minnesota, but expansion of coverage is ongoing. The integration of highly resolute spatial and temporal climate data, soil properties, crop rotation and residue management data affords the opportunity to test the effects of using multiple conservation practices on the transport and fate of water borne nutrients, especially phosphorus, on the Midwestern United States agricultural landscapes. Understanding the interaction of different environmental and land management practices on phosphorus movement will allow data from the DEP to guide conservation efforts as expansion continues into surrounding Midwestern states. The presentation will provide an overview of the DEP technology, including how input data are derived and used to make daily erosion estimates on over 200,000 flowpaths in the modelling area, as well as a discussion of the ongoing phosphorus transport modelling efforts and plans for future expansion (both land area and model functionality).

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence estimated using a standard algorithm based on electronic health data in various areas of Italy].

PubMed

Faustini, Annunziata; Cascini, Silvia; Arcà, Massimo; Balzi, Daniela; Barchielli, Alessandro; Canova, Cristina; Galassi, Claudia; Migliore, Enrica; Minerba, Sante; Protti, Maria Angela; Romanelli, Anna; Tessari, Roberta; Vigotti, Maria Angela; Simonato, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

to estimate the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by integrating various administrative health information systems. prevalent COPD cases were defined as those reported in the hospital discharge registry (HDR) and cause of mortality registry (CMR) with codes 490*, 491*, 492*, 494* and 496* of the International diseases classification 9th revision. Annual prevalence was estimated in 35+ year-old residents in six Italian areas ofb different sizes, in the period 2002-2004. We included cases observed in the previous four years who were alive at the beginning of each year. in 2003, age-standardized prevalence rates varied from 1.6% in Venice to 5% in Taranto. Prevalence was higher in males and increased with age. The highest rates were observed in central (Rome) and southern (Taranto) cities, especially in the 35-64 age group. HDR contributed 91% of cases. Health-tax exemption registry would increase the prevalence estimate by 0.2% if used as a third data source. with respect to the National Health Status survey, COPD prevalence is underestimated by 1%-3%; this can partly be due to the selection of severe and exacerbated COPD by the algorithm used. However, age, gender and geographical characteristics of prevalent cases were comparable to national estimates. Including cases observed in previous years (longitudinal estimates) increased the point estimate (yearly) of prevalence two or three times in each area.

Improving the Accuracy of Mapping Urban Vegetation Carbon Density by Combining Shadow Remove, Spectral Unmixing Analysis and Spatial Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qie, G.; Wang, G.; Wang, M.

2016-12-01

Mixed pixels and shadows due to buildings in urban areas impede accurate estimation and mapping of city vegetation carbon density. In most of previous studies, these factors are often ignored, which thus result in underestimation of city vegetation carbon density. In this study we presented an integrated methodology to improve the accuracy of mapping city vegetation carbon density. Firstly, we applied a linear shadow remove analysis (LSRA) on remotely sensed Landsat 8 images to reduce the shadow effects on carbon estimation. Secondly, we integrated a linear spectral unmixing analysis (LSUA) with a linear stepwise regression (LSR), a logistic model-based stepwise regression (LMSR) and k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), and utilized and compared the integrated models on shadow-removed images to map vegetation carbon density. This methodology was examined in Shenzhen City of Southeast China. A data set from a total of 175 sample plots measured in 2013 and 2014 was used to train the models. The independent variables statistically significantly contributing to improving the fit of the models to the data and reducing the sum of squared errors were selected from a total of 608 variables derived from different image band combinations and transformations. The vegetation fraction from LSUA was then added into the models as an important independent variable. The estimates obtained were evaluated using a cross-validation method. Our results showed that higher accuracies were obtained from the integrated models compared with the ones using traditional methods which ignore the effects of mixed pixels and shadows. This study indicates that the integrated method has great potential on improving the accuracy of urban vegetation carbon density estimation. Key words: Urban vegetation carbon, shadow, spectral unmixing, spatial modeling, Landsat 8 images

Near-station terrain corrections for gravity data by a surface-integral technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gettings, M.E.

1982-01-01

A new method of computing gravity terrain corrections by use of a digitizer and digital computer can result in substantial savings in the time and manual labor required to perform such corrections by conventional manual ring-chart techniques. The method is typically applied to estimate terrain effects for topography near the station, for example within 3 km of the station, although it has been used successfully to a radius of 15 km to estimate corrections in areas where topographic mapping is poor. Points (about 20) that define topographic maxima, minima, and changes in the slope gradient are picked on the topographic map, within the desired radius of correction about the station. Particular attention must be paid to the area immediately surrounding the station to ensure a good topographic representation. The horizontal and vertical coordinates of these points are entered into the computer, usually by means of a digitizer. The computer then fits a multiquadric surface to the input points to form an analytic representation of the surface. By means of the divergence theorem, the gravity effect of an interior closed solid can be expressed as a surface integral, and the terrain correction is calculated by numerical evaluation of the integral over the surfaces of a cylinder, The vertical sides of which are at the correction radius about the station, the flat bottom surface at the topographic minimum, and the upper surface given by the multiquadric equation. The method has been tested with favorable results against models for which an exact result is available and against manually computed field-station locations in areas of rugged topography. By increasing the number of points defining the topographic surface, any desired degree of accuracy can be obtained. The method is more objective than manual ring-chart techniques because no average compartment elevations need be estimated ?

Early changes in intervention coverage and mortality rates following the implementation of an integrated health system intervention in Madagascar.

PubMed

Garchitorena, Andres; Miller, Ann C; Cordier, Laura F; Rabeza, Victor R; Randriamanambintsoa, Marius; Razanadrakato, Hery-Tiana R; Hall, Lara; Gikic, Djordje; Haruna, Justin; McCarty, Meg; Randrianambinina, Andriamihaja; Thomson, Dana R; Atwood, Sidney; Rich, Michael L; Murray, Megan B; Ratsirarson, Josea; Ouenzar, Mohammed Ali; Bonds, Matthew H

2018-01-01

The Sustainable Development Goals framed an unprecedented commitment to achieve global convergence in child and maternal mortality rates through 2030. To meet those targets, essential health services must be scaled via integration with strengthened health systems. This is especially urgent in Madagascar, the country with the lowest level of financing for health in the world. Here, we present an interim evaluation of the first 2 years of a district-level health system strengthening (HSS) initiative in rural Madagascar, using estimates of intervention coverage and mortality rates from a district-wide longitudinal cohort. We carried out a district representative household survey at baseline of the HSS intervention in over 1500 households in Ifanadiana district. The first follow-up was after the first 2 years of the initiative. For each survey, we estimated maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) coverage, healthcare inequalities and child mortality rates both in the initial intervention catchment area and in the rest of the district. We evaluated changes between the two areas through difference-in-differences analyses. We estimated annual changes in health centre per capita utilisation from 2013 to 2016. The intervention was associated with 19.1% and 36.4% decreases in under-five and neonatal mortality, respectively, although these were not statistically significant. The composite coverage index (a summary measure of MNCH coverage) increased by 30.1%, with a notable 63% increase in deliveries in health facilities. Improvements in coverage were substantially larger in the HSS catchment area and led to an overall reduction in healthcare inequalities. Health centre utilisation rates in the catchment tripled for most types of care during the study period. At the earliest stages of an HSS intervention, the rapid improvements observed for Ifanadiana add to preliminary evidence supporting the untapped and poorly understood potential of integrated HSS interventions on population health.

Integrated species distribution models: combining presence-background data and site-occupancy data with imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koshkina, Vira; Wang, Yang; Gordon, Ascelin; Dorazio, Robert; White, Matthew; Stone, Lewi

2017-01-01

Two main sources of data for species distribution models (SDMs) are site-occupancy (SO) data from planned surveys, and presence-background (PB) data from opportunistic surveys and other sources. SO surveys give high quality data about presences and absences of the species in a particular area. However, due to their high cost, they often cover a smaller area relative to PB data, and are usually not representative of the geographic range of a species. In contrast, PB data is plentiful, covers a larger area, but is less reliable due to the lack of information on species absences, and is usually characterised by biased sampling. Here we present a new approach for species distribution modelling that integrates these two data types.We have used an inhomogeneous Poisson point process as the basis for constructing an integrated SDM that fits both PB and SO data simultaneously. It is the first implementation of an Integrated SO–PB Model which uses repeated survey occupancy data and also incorporates detection probability.The Integrated Model's performance was evaluated, using simulated data and compared to approaches using PB or SO data alone. It was found to be superior, improving the predictions of species spatial distributions, even when SO data is sparse and collected in a limited area. The Integrated Model was also found effective when environmental covariates were significantly correlated. Our method was demonstrated with real SO and PB data for the Yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) in south-eastern Australia, with the predictive performance of the Integrated Model again found to be superior.PB models are known to produce biased estimates of species occupancy or abundance. The small sample size of SO datasets often results in poor out-of-sample predictions. Integrated models combine data from these two sources, providing superior predictions of species abundance compared to using either data source alone. Unlike conventional SDMs which have restrictive scale-dependence in their predictions, our Integrated Model is based on a point process model and has no such scale-dependency. It may be used for predictions of abundance at any spatial-scale while still maintaining the underlying relationship between abundance and area.

Integrated In Situ Stress Estimation by Hydraulic Fracturing, Borehole Observations and Numerical Analysis at the EXP-1 Borehole in Pohang, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hanna; Xie, Linmao; Min, Ki-Bok; Bae, Seongho; Stephansson, Ove

2017-12-01

It is desirable to combine the stress measurement data produced by different methods to obtain a more reliable estimation of in situ stress. We present a regional case study of integrated in situ stress estimation by hydraulic fracturing, observations of borehole breakouts and drilling-induced fractures, and numerical modeling of a 1 km-deep borehole (EXP-1) in Pohang, South Korea. Prior to measuring the stress, World Stress Map (WSM) and modern field data in the Korean Peninsula are used to construct a best estimate stress model in this area. Then, new stress data from hydraulic fracturing and borehole observations is added to determine magnitude and orientation of horizontal stresses. Minimum horizontal principal stress is estimated from the shut-in pressure of the hydraulic fracturing measurement at a depth of about 700 m. The horizontal stress ratios ( S Hmax/ S hmin) derived from hydraulic fracturing, borehole breakout, and drilling-induced fractures are 1.4, 1.2, and 1.1-1.4, respectively, and the average orientations of the maximum horizontal stresses derived by field methods are N138°E, N122°E, and N136°E, respectively. The results of hydraulic fracturing and borehole observations are integrated with a result of numerical modeling to produce a final rock stress model. The results of the integration give in situ stress ratios of 1.3/1.0/0.8 ( S Hmax/ S V/ S hmin) with an average azimuth of S Hmax in the orientation range of N130°E-N136°E. It is found that the orientation of S Hmax is deviated by more than 40° clockwise compared to directions reported for the WSM in southeastern Korean peninsula.

Integrated study of basins in the Four Corners region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagbola, Olamide Olawumi

2007-12-01

This dissertation is an integrated study of basins in the four corners area of the central part of the Colorado Plateau. The Colorado Plateau is a structurally unique part of the Rocky Mountain region because it has only been moderately deformed when compared to the more intensely deformed areas around it. The Colorado Plateau covers a portion of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. The study area extends from latitude 34°N-40°N to longitude 106°W-111W° encompassing a series of major basins and uplifts: the San Juan, Black Mesa, Paradox, and the Blanding basins; and the Zuni, Defiance, Four Corners, Monument uplifts and the San Juan dome and volcanic field. An analysis of gravity anomalies, basement and crustal structure for basins in the four corners region was carried out. This involved using gravity, magnetic, well, outcrop, seismic estimates of crustal thickness, and geologic data in an integrated fashion. Six filtered gravity and three filtered magnetic maps were generated to aid in the interpretation of the gravity and magnetic anomalies in the study area. A detailed comparison of these maps was carried out. The results show a deep seated mafic structure in the basement acting as a crustal boundary separating the high gravity anomalies from the low. These maps also show that the sources of these anomalies are quite shallow resulting from the upper crust in the study area. The structures in the study area are characterized by northwest and northeast trends which correspond to the Precambrian and the Late Paleozoic structures, respectively. A crustal thickness map of the area was also constructed from seismic estimates of crustal thickness. A comparison was done between the crustal thickness map and the 45 km upward continuation Bouguer anomaly map. The result of this comparison shows that areas of thicker ix crust corresponded to low gravity while areas of thinner crust means mantle material is closer to the surface, thereby producing a high gravity anomaly. The thinnest crust encountered is about 32 km while the thickest crust is about 50 km. Seven gravity models were constructed and these include three crustal-scale profiles crisscrossing the study area and four local profiles. The gravity profiles were modeled using well data, structural thickness maps, cross section data, geologic maps and previous gravity models as constraints. Basement inhomogeneities beneath the basins and the uplifts were delineated by the gravity modeling. One of results from this study reveals that the basement beneath the Four Corners area is highly inhomogeneous. This study reveals that there is a high density deep seated mafic intrusion present in the basement which is responsible for the high gravity and magnetic anomaly in A. This dissertation has also shown that the Four Corners region does not possess a single crustal signature as shown by the different crustal trends in San Juan basin trending northeast and the east-west trending Uncompahgre uplift. The 45 km upward continuation gravity map was also found to correlate with seismic estimates of crustal thickness. The Precambrian basement in this region is also not homogeneous as shown by the necessity of inserting exotic bodies into the basement to compensate for high gravity anomalies and lastly an attempt was made to better define Tweto's (1980) outline of geologic features in the study area. On integrating gravity, magnetics, well and outcrop data, the relief of the Defiance uplift is not as high as delineated by Tweto's (1980) outline.

Integration of Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems in St. Paul Ford Site's Redevelopment Plans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olis, D.; Mosey, G.

The purpose of this analysis is to estimate how much electricity the redeveloped Ford Motor Company assembly plant site in St. Paul, Minnesota, might consume under different development scenarios and how much rooftop photovoltaic (PV) generation might be possible at the site. Because the current development scenarios are high-level, preliminary sketches that describe mixes of residential, retail, commercial, and industrial spaces, electricity consumption and available rooftop area for PV under each scenario can only be grossly estimated. These results are only indicative and should be used for estimating purposes only and to help inform development goals and requirements moving forward.

Rain volume estimation over areas using satellite and radar data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doneaud, A. A.; Vonderhaar, T. H.

1985-01-01

An investigation of the feasibility of rain volume estimation using satellite data following a technique recently developed with radar data called the Arera Time Integral was undertaken. Case studies were selected on the basis of existing radar and satellite data sets which match in space and time. Four multicell clusters were analyzed. Routines for navigation remapping amd smoothing of satellite images were performed. Visible counts were normalized for solar zenith angle. A radar sector of interest was defined to delineate specific radar echo clusters for each radar time throughout the radar echo cluster lifetime. A satellite sector of interest was defined by applying small adjustments to the radar sector using a manual processing technique. The radar echo area, the IR maximum counts and the IR counts matching radar echo areas were found to evolve similarly, except for the decaying phase of the cluster where the cirrus debris keeps the IR counts high.

Satellite inventory of Minnesota forest resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Marvin E.; Burk, Thomas E.; Ek, Alan R.; Coppin, Pol R.; Lime, Stephen D.; Walsh, Terese A.; Walters, David K.; Befort, William; Heinzen, David F.

1993-01-01

The methods and results of using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to classify and estimate the acreage of forest covertypes in northeastern Minnesota are described. Portions of six TM scenes covering five counties with a total area of 14,679 square miles were classified into six forest and five nonforest classes. The approach involved the integration of cluster sampling, image processing, and estimation. Using cluster sampling, 343 plots, each 88 acres in size, were photo interpreted and field mapped as a source of reference data for classifier training and calibration of the TM data classifications. Classification accuracies of up to 75 percent were achieved; most misclassification was between similar or related classes. An inverse method of calibration, based on the error rates obtained from the classifications of the cluster plots, was used to adjust the classification class proportions for classification errors. The resulting area estimates for total forest land in the five-county area were within 3 percent of the estimate made independently by the USDA Forest Service. Area estimates for conifer and hardwood forest types were within 0.8 and 6.0 percent respectively, of the Forest Service estimates. A trial of a second method of estimating the same classes as the Forest Service resulted in standard errors of 0.002 to 0.015. A study of the use of multidate TM data for change detection showed that forest canopy depletion, canopy increment, and no change could be identified with greater than 90 percent accuracy. The project results have been the basis for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and the Forest Service to define and begin to implement an annual system of forest inventory which utilizes Landsat TM data to detect changes in forest cover.

Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruno, Michael

GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historicalmore » data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.« less

An integrated study to evaluate debris flow hazard in alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiranti, Davide; Crema, Stefano; Cavalli, Marco; Deangeli, Chiara

2018-05-01

Debris flows are among the most dangerous natural processes affecting the alpine environment due to their magnitude (volume of transported material) and the long runout. The presence of structures and infrastructures on alluvial fans can lead to severe problems in terms of interactions between debris flows and human activities. Risk mitigation in these areas requires identifying the magnitude, triggers, and propagation of debris flows. Here, we propose an integrated methodology to characterize these phenomena. The methodology consists of three complementary procedures. Firstly, we adopt a classification method based on the propensity of the catchment bedrocks to produce clayey-grained material. The classification allows us to identify the most likely rheology of the process. Secondly, we calculate a sediment connectivity index to estimate the topographic control on the possible coupling between the sediment source areas and the catchment channel network. This step allows for the assessment of the debris supply, which is most likely available for the channelized processes. Finally, with the data obtained in the previous steps, we modelled the propagation and depositional pattern of debris flows with a 3D code based on Cellular Automata. The results of the numerical runs allow us to identify the depositional patterns and the areas potentially involved in the flow processes. This integrated methodology is applied to a test-bed catchment located in Northwestern Alps. The results indicate that this approach can be regarded as a useful tool to estimate debris flow related potential hazard scenarios in an alpine environment in an expeditious way without possessing an exhaustive knowledge of the investigated catchment, including data on historical debris flow events.

A Mathematical Method to Calculate Tumor Contact Surface Area: An Effective Parameter to Predict Renal Function after Partial Nephrectomy.

PubMed

Hsieh, Po-Fan; Wang, Yu-De; Huang, Chi-Ping; Wu, Hsi-Chin; Yang, Che-Rei; Chen, Guang-Heng; Chang, Chao-Hsiang

2016-07-01

We proposed a mathematical formula to calculate contact surface area between a tumor and renal parenchyma. We examined the applicability of using contact surface area to predict renal function after partial nephrectomy. We performed this retrospective study in patients who underwent partial nephrectomy between January 2012 and December 2014. Based on abdominopelvic computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, we calculated the contact surface area using the formula (2*π*radius*depth) developed by integral calculus. We then evaluated the correlation between contact surface area and perioperative parameters, and compared contact surface area and R.E.N.A.L. (Radius/Exophytic/endophytic/Nearness to collecting system/Anterior/Location) score in predicting a reduction in renal function. Overall 35, 26 and 45 patients underwent partial nephrectomy with open, laparoscopic and robotic approaches, respectively. Mean ± SD contact surface area was 30.7±26.1 cm(2) and median (IQR) R.E.N.A.L. score was 7 (2.25). Spearman correlation analysis showed that contact surface area was significantly associated with estimated blood loss (p=0.04), operative time (p=0.04) and percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (p <0.001). On multivariate analysis contact surface area and R.E.N.A.L. score independently affected percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (p <0.001 and p=0.03, respectively). On ROC curve analysis contact surface area was a better independent predictor of a greater than 10% change in estimated glomerular filtration rate compared to R.E.N.A.L. score (AUC 0.86 vs 0.69). Using this simple mathematical method, contact surface area was associated with surgical outcomes. Compared to R.E.N.A.L. score, contact surface area was a better predictor of functional change after partial nephrectomy. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal evaluation of plant height in corn via unmanned aerial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varela, Sebastian; Assefa, Yared; Vara Prasad, P. V.; Peralta, Nahuel R.; Griffin, Terry W.; Sharda, Ajay; Ferguson, Allison; Ciampitti, Ignacio A.

2017-07-01

Detailed spatial and temporal data on plant growth are critical to guide crop management. Conventional methods to determine field plant traits are intensive, time-consuming, expensive, and limited to small areas. The objective of this study was to examine the integration of data collected via unmanned aerial systems (UAS) at critical corn (Zea mays L.) developmental stages for plant height and its relation to plant biomass. The main steps followed in this research were (1) workflow development for an ultrahigh resolution crop surface model (CSM) with the goal of determining plant height (CSM-estimated plant height) using data gathered from the UAS missions; (2) validation of CSM-estimated plant height with ground-truthing plant height (measured plant height); and (3) final estimation of plant biomass via integration of CSM-estimated plant height with ground-truthing stem diameter data. Results indicated a correlation between CSM-estimated plant height and ground-truthing plant height data at two weeks prior to flowering and at flowering stage, but high predictability at the later growth stage. Log-log analysis on the temporal data confirmed that these relationships are stable, presenting equal slopes for both crop stages evaluated. Concluding, data collected from low-altitude and with a low-cost sensor could be useful in estimating plant height.

The 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bizzell, R. M.; Prior, H. L.; Payne, R. W.; Disler, J. M.

1983-01-01

The results from the U.S./Canada Wheat and Barley Exploratory Experiment which was completed during FY 1980 are presented. The results indicate that the new crop identification procedures performed well for spring small grains and that they are conductive to automation. The performance of the machine processing techniques shows a significant improvement over previously evaluated technology. However, the crop calendars will require additional development and refinements prior to integration into automated area estimation technology. The evaluation showed the integrated technology to be capable of producing accurate and consistent spring small grains proportion estimates. However, barley proportion estimation technology was not satisfactorily evaluated. The low-density segments examined were judged not to give indicative or unequivocal results. It is concluded that, generally, the spring small grains technology is ready for evaluation in a pilot experiment focusing on sensitivity analyses to a variety of agricultural and meteorological conditions representative of the global environment. It is further concluded that a strong potential exists for establishing a highly efficient technology or spring small grains.

Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Long S.

1986-01-01

The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

An Integrated H-G Scheme Identifying Areas for Soil Remediation and Primary Heavy Metal Contributors: A Risk Perspective.

PubMed

Zou, Bin; Jiang, Xiaolu; Duan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Xiuge; Zhang, Jing; Tang, Jingwen; Sun, Guoqing

2017-03-23

Traditional sampling for soil pollution evaluation is cost intensive and has limited representativeness. Therefore, developing methods that can accurately and rapidly identify at-risk areas and the contributing pollutants is imperative for soil remediation. In this study, we propose an innovative integrated H-G scheme combining human health risk assessment and geographical detector methods that was based on geographical information system technology and validated its feasibility in a renewable resource industrial park in mainland China. With a discrete site investigation of cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg) and zinc (Zn) concentrations, the continuous surfaces of carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk caused by these heavy metals were estimated and mapped. Source apportionment analysis using geographical detector methods further revealed that these risks were primarily attributed to As, according to the power of the determinant and its associated synergic actions with other heavy metals. Concentrations of critical As and Cd, and the associated exposed CRs are closed to the safe thresholds after remediating the risk areas identified by the integrated H-G scheme. Therefore, the integrated H-G scheme provides an effective approach to support decision-making for regional contaminated soil remediation at fine spatial resolution with limited sampling data over a large geographical extent.

Rapid determination of leaf area and plant height by using light curtain arrays in four species with contrasting shoot architecture.

PubMed

Fanourakis, Dimitrios; Briese, Christoph; Max, Johannes Fj; Kleinen, Silke; Putz, Alexander; Fiorani, Fabio; Ulbrich, Andreas; Schurr, Ulrich

2014-04-11

Light curtain arrays (LC), a recently introduced phenotyping method, yield a binary data matrix from which a shoot silhouette is reconstructed. We addressed the accuracy and applicability of LC in assessing leaf area and maximum height (base to the highest leaf tip) in a phenotyping platform. LC were integrated to an automated routine for positioning, allowing in situ measurements. Two dicotyledonous (rapeseed, tomato) and two monocotyledonous (maize, barley) species with contrasting shoot architecture were investigated. To evaluate if averaging multiple view angles helps in resolving self-overlaps, we acquired a data set by rotating plants every 10° for 170°. To test how rapid these measurements can be without loss of information, we evaluated nine scanning speeds. Leaf area of overlapping plants was also estimated to assess the possibility to scale this method for plant stands. The relation between measured and calculated maximum height was linear and nearly the same for all species. Linear relations were also found between plant leaf area and calculated pixel area. However, the regression slope was different between monocotyledonous and dicotyledonous species. Increasing the scanning speed stepwise from 0.9 to 23.4 m s-1 did not affect the estimation of maximum height. Instead, the calculated pixel area was inversely proportional to scanning speed. The estimation of plant leaf area by means of calculated pixel area became more accurate by averaging consecutive silhouettes and/or increasing the angle between them. Simulations showed that decreasing plant distance gradually from 20 to 0 cm, led to underestimation of plant leaf area owing to overlaps. This underestimation was more important for large plants of dicotyledonous species and for small plants of monocotyledonous ones. LC offer an accurate estimation of plant leaf area and maximum height, while the number of consecutive silhouettes that needs to be averaged is species-dependent. A constant scanning speed is important for leaf area estimations by using LC. Simulations of the effect of varying plant spacing gave promising results for method application in sets of partly overlapping plants, which applies also to field conditions during and after canopy closure for crops sown in rows.

On the spatial heterogeneity of net ecosystem productivity in complex landscapes

Treesearch

Ryan E. Emanuel; Diego A. Riveros-Iregui; Brian L. McGlynn; Howard E. Epstein

2011-01-01

Micrometeorological flux towers provide spatially integrated estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP) of carbon over areas ranging from several hectares to several square kilometers, but they do so at the expense of spatially explicit information within the footprint of the tower. This finer-scale information is crucial for understanding how physical and biological...

Simple Electrolyzer Model Development for High-Temperature Electrolysis System Analysis Using Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JaeHwa Koh; DuckJoo Yoon; Chang H. Oh

2010-07-01

An electrolyzer model for the analysis of a hydrogen-production system using a solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) has been developed, and the effects for principal parameters have been estimated by sensitivity studies based on the developed model. The main parameters considered are current density, area specific resistance, temperature, pressure, and molar fraction and flow rates in the inlet and outlet. Finally, a simple model for a high-temperature hydrogen-production system using the solid oxide electrolysis cell integrated with very high temperature reactors is estimated.

Integrating aeromagnetic and Landsat™ 8 data into subsurface structural mapping of Precambrian basement complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayode, John Stephen; Nawawi, M. N. M.; Abdullah, Khiruddin B.; Khalil, Amin E.

2017-01-01

The integration of Aeromagnetic data and remotely sensed imagery with the intents of mapping the subsurface geological structures in part of the South-western basement complex of Nigeria was developed using the PCI Geomatica Software. 2013. The data obtained from the Nigerian Geological Survey Agency; was corrected using Regional Residual Separation of the Total Magnetic field anomalies enhanced, and International Geomagnetic Reference Field removed. The principal objective of this study is, therefore, to introduce a rapid and efficient method of subsurface structural depth estimate and structural index evaluation through the incorporation of the Euler Deconvolution technique into PCI Geomatica 2013 to prospect for subsurface geological structures. The shape and depth of burial helped to define these structures from the regional aeromagnetic map. The method enabled various structural indices to be automatically delineated for an index of between 0.5 SI and 3.0 SI at a maximum depth of 1.1 km that clearly showed the best depths estimate for all the structural indices. The results delineate two major magnetic belts in the area; the first belt shows an elongated ridge-like structure trending mostly along the NorthNortheast-SouthSouthwest and the other anomalies trends primarily in the Northeast, Northwest, Northeast-Southwest parts of the study area that could be attributed to basement complex granitic intrusions from the tectonic history of the area. The majority of the second structures showed various linear structures different from the first structure. Basically, a significant offset was delineated at the core segment of the study area, suggesting a major subsurface geological feature that controls mineralisation in this area.

Beamwidth effects on Z-R relations and area-integrated rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Atlas, David; Wolff, David B.; Amitai, Eyal

1992-01-01

The effective radar reflectivity Ze measured by a radar is the convolution of the actual distribution of reflectivity with the beam radiation pattern. Because of the nonlinearity between Z and rain rate R, Ze gives a biased estimator of R whenever the reflectivity field is nonuniform. In the presence of sharp horizontal reflectivity gradients, the measured pattern of Ze extends beyond the actual precipitation boundaries to produce false precipitation echoes. When integrated across the radar image of the storm, the false echo areas contribute to the sum to produce overestimates of the areal rainfall. As the range or beamwidth increases, the ratio of measured to actual rainfall increases. Beyond some range, the normal decrease of reflectivity with height dominates and the measured rainfall underestimates the actual amount.

Estimation of walrus populations on sea ice with infrared imagery and aerial photography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, M.S.; Burn, D.M.; Webber, M.A.

2008-01-01

Population sizes of ice-associated pinnipeds have often been estimated with visual or photographic aerial surveys, but these methods require relatively slow speeds and low altitudes, limiting the area they can cover. Recent developments in infrared imagery and its integration with digital photography could allow substantially larger areas to be surveyed and more accurate enumeration of individuals, thereby solving major problems with previous survey methods. We conducted a trial survey in April 2003 to estimate the number of Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) hauled out on sea ice around St. Lawrence Island, Alaska. The survey used high altitude infrared imagery to detect groups of walruses on strip transects. Low altitude digital photography was used to determine the number of walruses in a sample of detected groups and calibrate the infrared imagery for estimating the total number of walruses. We propose a survey design incorporating this approach with satellite radio telemetry to estimate the proportion of the population in the water and additional low-level flights to estimate the proportion of the hauled-out population in groups too small to be detected in the infrared imagery. We believe that this approach offers the potential for obtaining reliable population estimates for walruses and other ice-associated pinnipeds. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

Benchmarking on the evaluation of major accident-related risk assessment.

PubMed

Fabbri, Luciano; Contini, Sergio

2009-03-15

This paper summarises the main results of a European project BEQUAR (Benchmarking Exercise in Quantitative Area Risk Assessment in Central and Eastern European Countries). This project is among the first attempts to explore how independent evaluations of the same risk study associated with a certain chemical establishment could differ from each other and the consequent effects on the resulting area risk estimate. The exercise specifically aimed at exploring the manner and degree to which independent experts may disagree on the interpretation of quantitative risk assessments for the same entity. The project first compared the results of a number of independent expert evaluations of a quantitative risk assessment study for the same reference chemical establishment. This effort was then followed by a study of the impact of the different interpretations on the estimate of the overall risk on the area concerned. In order to improve the inter-comparability of the results, this exercise was conducted using a single tool for area risk assessment based on the ARIPAR methodology. The results of this study are expected to contribute to an improved understanding of the inspection criteria and practices used by the different national authorities responsible for the implementation of the Seveso II Directive in their countries. The activity was funded under the Enlargement and Integration Action of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), that aims at providing scientific and technological support for promoting integration of the New Member States and assisting the Candidate Countries on their way towards accession to the European Union.

An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eurek, Kelly; Sullivan, Patrick; Gleason, Michael

This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquelymore » detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.« less

Reconnaissance investigation of the alluvial gold deposits in the North Takhar Area of Interest, Takhar Province, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Moran, Thomas W.

2013-01-01

This study is a reconnaissance assessment of the alluvial gold deposits of the North Takhar Area of Interest (AOI) in Takhar Province, Afghanistan. Soviet and Afghan geologists collected data and calculated the gold deposit reserves in Takhar Province in the 1970s, prior to the development of satellite-based remote-sensing platforms and new methods of geomorphic mapping. The purpose of this study was to integrate new mapping techniques with previously collected borehole sampling and concentration sampling data and geomorphologic interpretations to reassess the alluvial gold placer deposits in the North Takhar AOI. Through a combination of historical borehole and cross-section data and digital terrain modeling, the Samti, Nooraba-Khasar-Anjir, and Kocha River placer deposits were reassessed. Resource estimates were calculated to be 20,927 kilograms (kg) for Samti, 7,626 kg for Nooraba-Khasar-Anjir, 160 kg for the mouth of the Kocha, 1,047 kg for the lower Kocha, 113 kg for the middle Kocha, and 168 kg for the upper Kocha. Previous resource estimates conducted by the Soviets for the Samti and Nooraba-Khasar-Anjir deposits estimated 30,062 kg and 802 kg of gold, respectively. This difference between the new estimates and previous estimates results from the higher resolution geomorphic model and the interpretation of areas outside of the initial work zone studied by Soviet and Afghan geologists.

Cortical connective field estimates from resting state fMRI activity.

PubMed

Gravel, Nicolás; Harvey, Ben; Nordhjem, Barbara; Haak, Koen V; Dumoulin, Serge O; Renken, Remco; Curčić-Blake, Branislava; Cornelissen, Frans W

2014-01-01

One way to study connectivity in visual cortical areas is by examining spontaneous neural activity. In the absence of visual input, such activity remains shaped by the underlying neural architecture and, presumably, may still reflect visuotopic organization. Here, we applied population connective field (CF) modeling to estimate the spatial profile of functional connectivity in the early visual cortex during resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (RS-fMRI). This model-based analysis estimates the spatial integration between blood-oxygen level dependent (BOLD) signals in distinct cortical visual field maps using fMRI. Just as population receptive field (pRF) mapping predicts the collective neural activity in a voxel as a function of response selectivity to stimulus position in visual space, CF modeling predicts the activity of voxels in one visual area as a function of the aggregate activity in voxels in another visual area. In combination with pRF mapping, CF locations on the cortical surface can be interpreted in visual space, thus enabling reconstruction of visuotopic maps from resting state data. We demonstrate that V1 ➤ V2 and V1 ➤ V3 CF maps estimated from resting state fMRI data show visuotopic organization. Therefore, we conclude that-despite some variability in CF estimates between RS scans-neural properties such as CF maps and CF size can be derived from resting state data.

Lateral carbon export in the Mississippi River Basin, integrating fluxes from the headwaters to the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stackpoole, S. M.; Crawford, J.; Santi, L. M.; Stets, E.; Sebestyen, S. D.; Wilson, S.; Striegl, R. G.

2017-12-01

Large-scale river studies have documented that lateral fluxes are an important component of the global carbon cycle. This study focuses on river lateral C fluxes for the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), the largest river in North America. Our lateral river C fluxes are based on data from 23 nested watersheds within the Upper MRB, for water years 2015 and 2016. The study area covers 170,000 km2 and is comprised of both catchment <10 km2 and intermediate-scale watersheds (20,000 to 40,000 km2) in Wisconsin and Minnesota, USA. Total alkalinity yields (flux derived by drainage area) ranged from 0 to 16 g C m2 yr-1 and dissolved organic C (DOC) yields ranged from 1 to 13 g C m2 yr-1. In comparison, published estimates for Mississippi River export to the Gulf of Mexico, estimated at St. Francisville, LA, were 16 g C m-2 yr-1 for alkalinity and 0.6 g m2 yr-1 for DOC. In the Upper MRB, alkalinity yields had a significant negative relationship with DOC yields (R2 = 0.53, p-value<0.0001), and alkalinity yields were significantly higher in basins where the lithology was dominated by carbonates and the land-use was >50% agriculture. There was significant inter-annual variability in the total C fluxes, and the increase in discharge in 2016 relative to 2015 increased the proportion of DOC:alkalinity for watersheds with higher forest and wetland coverage. The integration of these recent C flux estimates for the Upper MRB integrated with the fluxes estimated from the USGS long-term monitoring program dataset provide a comprehensive analysis of alkalinity and DOC fluxes for the entire basin. These results, which represent C fluxes across a gradient of lithology, soil type, and land use, will be used to address questions related to our understanding of carbon sources, transport, and loss that can be applied to other river systems.

Accessibility assessment of Houston's roadway network during Harvey through integration of observed flood impacts and hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidaris, I.; Gori, A.; Panakkal, P.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

2017-12-01

The record-breaking rainfall produced over the Houston region by Hurricane Harvey resulted in catastrophic and unprecedented impacts on the region's infrastructure. Notably, Houston's transportation network was crippled, with almost every major highway flooded during the five-day event. Entire neighborhoods and subdivisions were inundated, rendering them completely inaccessible to rescue crews and emergency services. Harvey has tragically highlighted the vulnerability of major thoroughfares, as well as neighborhood roads, to severe inundation during extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, it has emphasized the need for detailed accessibility characterization of road networks under extreme event scenarios in order to determine which areas of the city are most vulnerable. This analysis assesses and tracks the accessibility of Houston's major highways during Harvey's evolution by utilizing road flood/closure data from the Texas DOT. In the absence of flooded/closure data for local roads, a hybrid approach is adopted that utilizes a physics-based hydrologic model to produce high-resolution inundation estimates for selected urban watersheds in the Houston area. In particular, hydrologic output in the form of inundation depths is used to estimate the operability of local roads. Ultimately, integration of hydrologic-based estimation of road conditions with observed data from DOT supports a network accessibility analysis of selected urban neighborhoods. This accessibility analysis can identify operable routes for emergency response (rescue crews, medical services, etc.) during the storm event.

Modeling the effect of photosynthetic vegetation properties on the NDVI--LAI relationship.

PubMed

Steltzer, Heidi; Welker, Jeffrey M

2006-11-01

Developing a relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the leaf area index (LAI) is essential to describe the pattern of spatial or temporal variation in LAI that controls carbon, water, and energy exchange in many ecosystem process models. Photosynthetic vegetation (PV) properties can affect the estimation of LAI, but no models integrate the effects of multiple species. We developed four alternative NDVI-LAI models, three of which integrate PV effects: no PV effects, leaf-level effects, canopy-level effects, and effects at both levels. The models were fit to data across the natural range of variation in NDVI for a widespread High Arctic ecosystem. The weight of evidence supported the canopy-level model (Akaike weight, wr = 0.98), which includes species-specific canopy coefficients that primarily scale fractional PV cover to LAI by accounting for the area of unexposed PV. Modeling the canopy-level effects improved prediction of LAI (R2 = 0.82) over the model with no PV effect (R2 = 0.71) across the natural range of variation in NDVI but did not affect the site-level estimate of LAI. Satellite-based methods to estimate species composition, a variable in the model, will need to be developed. We expect that including the effects of PV properties in NDVI-LAI models will improve prediction of LAI where species composition varies across space or changes over time.

Cost-effective water quality assessment through the integration of monitoring data and modeling results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobuglio, Joseph N.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Serre, Marc L.

2007-03-01

Sparse monitoring data and error inherent in water quality models make the identification of waters not meeting regulatory standards uncertain. Additional monitoring can be implemented to reduce this uncertainty, but it is often expensive. These costs are currently a major concern, since developing total maximum daily loads, as mandated by the Clean Water Act, will require assessing tens of thousands of water bodies across the United States. This work uses the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method of modern geostatistics to integrate water quality monitoring data together with model predictions to provide improved estimates of water quality in a cost-effective manner. This information includes estimates of uncertainty and can be used to aid probabilistic-based decisions concerning the status of a water (i.e., impaired or not impaired) and the level of monitoring needed to characterize the water for regulatory purposes. This approach is applied to the Catawba River reservoir system in western North Carolina as a means of estimating seasonal chlorophyll a concentration. Mean concentration and confidence intervals for chlorophyll a are estimated for 66 reservoir segments over an 11-year period (726 values) based on 219 measured seasonal averages and 54 model predictions. Although the model predictions had a high degree of uncertainty, integration of modeling results via BME methods reduced the uncertainty associated with chlorophyll estimates compared with estimates made solely with information from monitoring efforts. Probabilistic predictions of future chlorophyll levels on one reservoir are used to illustrate the cost savings that can be achieved by less extensive and rigorous monitoring methods within the BME framework. While BME methods have been applied in several environmental contexts, employing these methods as a means of integrating monitoring and modeling results, as well as application of this approach to the assessment of surface water monitoring networks, represent unexplored areas of research.

A collaborative approach for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Jason I.; Kaczensky, Petra; Lubow, Bruce C.; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Altansukh, Nanjid

2012-01-01

Accurately estimating abundance of wildlife is critical for establishing effective conservation and management strategies. Aerial methodologies for estimating abundance are common in developed countries, but they are often impractical for remote areas of developing countries where many of the world's endangered and threatened fauna exist. The alternative terrestrial methodologies can be constrained by limitations on access, technology, and human resources, and have rarely been comprehensively conducted for large terrestrial mammals at landscape scales. We attempted to overcome these problems by incorporating local peoples into a simultaneous point count of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) and goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) across the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia. Paired observers collected abundance and covariate metrics at 50 observation points and we estimated population sizes using distance sampling theory, but also assessed individual observer error to examine potential bias introduced by the large number of minimally trained observers. We estimated 5671 (95% CI = 3611–8907) wild asses and 5909 (95% CI = 3762–9279) gazelle inhabited the 11,027 km2 study area at the time of our survey and found that the methodology developed was robust at absorbing the logistical challenges and wide range of observer abilities. This initiative serves as a functional model for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance while integrating local people into scientific and conservation projects. This, in turn, creates vested interest in conservation by the people who are most influential in, and most affected by, the outcomes.

Multi-crop area estimation and mapping on a microprocessor/mainframe network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheffner, E.

1985-01-01

The data processing system is outlined for a 1985 test aimed at determining the performance characteristics of area estimation and mapping procedures connected with the California Cooperative Remote Sensing Project. The project is a joint effort of the USDA Statistical Reporting Service-Remote Sensing Branch, the California Department of Water Resources, NASA-Ames Research Center, and the University of California Remote Sensing Research Program. One objective of the program was to study performance when data processing is done on a microprocessor/mainframe network under operational conditions. The 1985 test covered the hardware, software, and network specifications and the integration of these three components. Plans for the year - including planned completion of PEDITOR software, testing of software on MIDAS, and accomplishment of data processing on the MIDAS-VAX-CRAY network - are discussed briefly.

Modelling and estimating pollen movement in oilseed rape (Brassica napus) at the landscape scale using genetic markers.

PubMed

Devaux, C; Lavigne, C; Austerlitz, F; Klein, E K

2007-02-01

Understanding patterns of pollen movement at the landscape scale is important for establishing management rules following the release of genetically modified (GM) crops. We use here a mating model adapted to cultivated species to estimate dispersal kernels from the genotypes of the progenies of male-sterile plants positioned at different sampling sites within a 10 x 10-km oilseed rape production area. Half of the pollen clouds sampled by the male-sterile plants originated from uncharacterized pollen sources that could consist of both large volunteer and feral populations, and fields within and outside the study area. The geometric dispersal kernel was the most appropriate to predict pollen movement in the study area. It predicted a much larger proportion of long-distance pollination than previously fitted dispersal kernels. This best-fitting mating model underestimated the level of differentiation among pollen clouds but could predict its spatial structure. The estimation method was validated on simulated genotypic data, and proved to provide good estimates of both the shape of the dispersal kernel and the rate and composition of pollen issued from uncharacterized pollen sources. The best dispersal kernel fitted here, the geometric kernel, should now be integrated into models that aim at predicting gene flow at the landscape level, in particular between GM and non-GM crops.

The effects of health information technology adoption and hospital-physician integration on hospital efficiency.

PubMed

Cho, Na-Eun; Chang, Jongwha; Atems, Bebonchu

2014-11-01

To determine the impact of health information technology (HIT) adoption and hospital-physician integration on hospital efficiency. Using 2010 data from the American Hospital Association's (AHA) annual survey, the AHA IT survey, supplemented by the CMS Case Mix Index, and the US Census Bureau's small area income and poverty estimates, we examined how the adoption of HIT and employment of physicians affected hospital efficiency and whether they were substitutes or complements. The sample included 2173 hospitals. We employed a 2-stage approach. In the first stage, data envelopment analysis was used to estimate technical efficiency of hospitals. In the second stage, we used instrumental variable approaches, notably 2-stage least squares and the generalized method of moments, to examine the effects of IT adoption and integration on hospital efficiency. We found that HIT adoption and hospital-physician integration, when considered separately, each have statistically significant positive impacts on hospital efficiency. Also, we found that hospitals that adopted HIT with employed physicians will achieve less efficiency compared with hospitals that adopted HIT without employed physicians. Although HIT adoption and hospital-physician integration both seem to be key parts of improving hospital efficiency when one or the other is utilized individually, they can hurt hospital efficiency when utilized together.

Optimal estimation retrieval of aerosol microphysical properties from SAGE~II satellite observations in the volcanically unperturbed lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurl, D.; Grainger, R. G.; McDonald, A. J.; Deshler, T.

2010-05-01

Stratospheric aerosol particles under non-volcanic conditions are typically smaller than 0.1 μm. Due to fundamental limitations of the scattering theory in the Rayleigh limit, these tiny particles are hard to measure by satellite instruments. As a consequence, current estimates of global aerosol properties retrieved from spectral aerosol extinction measurements tend to be strongly biased. Aerosol surface area densities, for instance, are observed to be about 40% smaller than those derived from correlative in situ measurements (Deshler et al., 2003). An accurate knowledge of the global distribution of aerosol properties is, however, essential to better understand and quantify the role they play in atmospheric chemistry, dynamics, radiation and climate. To address this need a new retrieval algorithm was developed, which employs a nonlinear Optimal Estimation (OE) method to iteratively solve for the monomodal size distribution parameters which are statistically most consistent with both the satellite-measured multi-wavelength aerosol extinction data and a priori information. By thus combining spectral extinction measurements (at visible to near infrared wavelengths) with prior knowledge of aerosol properties at background level, even the smallest particles are taken into account which are practically invisible to optical remote sensing instruments. The performance of the OE retrieval algorithm was assessed based on synthetic spectral extinction data generated from both monomodal and small-mode-dominant bimodal sulphuric acid aerosol size distributions. For monomodal background aerosol, the new algorithm was shown to fairly accurately retrieve the particle sizes and associated integrated properties (surface area and volume densities), even in the presence of large extinction uncertainty. The associated retrieved uncertainties are a good estimate of the true errors. In the case of bimodal background aerosol, where the retrieved (monomodal) size distributions naturally differ from the correct bimodal values, the associated surface area (A) and volume densities (V) are, nevertheless, fairly accurately retrieved, except at values larger than 1.0 μm2 cm-3 (A) and 0.05 μm3 cm-3 (V), where they tend to underestimate the true bimodal values. Due to the limited information content in the SAGE II spectral extinction measurements this kind of forward model error cannot be avoided here. Nevertheless, the retrieved uncertainties are a good estimate of the true errors in the retrieved integrated properties, except where the surface area density exceeds the 1.0 μm2 cm-3 threshold. When applied to near-global SAGE II satellite extinction measured in 1999 the retrieved OE surface area and volume densities are observed to be larger by, respectively, 20-50% and 10-40% compared to those estimates obtained by the SAGE~II operational retrieval algorithm. An examination of the OE algorithm biases with in situ data indicates that the new OE aerosol property estimates tend to be more realistic than previous estimates obtained from remotely sensed data through other retrieval techniques. Based on the results of this study we therefore suggest that the new Optimal Estimation retrieval algorithm is able to contribute to an advancement in aerosol research by considerably improving current estimates of aerosol properties in the lower stratosphere under low aerosol loading conditions.

Investigation of Adaptive-threshold Approaches for Determining Area-Time Integrals from Satellite Infrared Data to Estimate Convective Rain Volumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Paul L.; VonderHaar, Thomas H.

1996-01-01

The principal goal of this project is to establish relationships that would allow application of area-time integral (ATI) calculations based upon satellite data to estimate rainfall volumes. The research is being carried out as a collaborative effort between the two participating organizations, with the satellite data analysis to determine values for the ATIs being done primarily by the STC-METSAT scientists and the associated radar data analysis to determine the 'ground-truth' rainfall estimates being done primarily at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (SDSM&T). Synthesis of the two separate kinds of data and investigation of the resulting rainfall-versus-ATI relationships is then carried out jointly. The research has been pursued using two different approaches, which for convenience can be designated as the 'fixed-threshold approach' and the 'adaptive-threshold approach'. In the former, an attempt is made to determine a single temperature threshold in the satellite infrared data that would yield ATI values for identifiable cloud clusters which are closely related to the corresponding rainfall amounts as determined by radar. Work on the second, or 'adaptive-threshold', approach for determining the satellite ATI values has explored two avenues: (1) attempt involved choosing IR thresholds to match the satellite ATI values with ones separately calculated from the radar data on a case basis; and (2) an attempt involved a striaghtforward screening analysis to determine the (fixed) offset that would lead to the strongest correlation and lowest standard error of estimate in the relationship between the satellite ATI values and the corresponding rainfall volumes.

Irrigated Acreage Within the Basin and Range Carbonate-Rock Aquifer System, White Pine County, Nevada, and Adjacent Areas in Nevada and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welborn, Toby L.; Moreo, Michael T.

2007-01-01

Accurate delineations of irrigated acreage are needed for the development of water-use estimates and in determining water-budget calculations for the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system (BARCAS) study. Irrigated acreage is estimated routinely for only a few basins in the study area. Satellite imagery from the Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper platforms were used to delineate irrigated acreage on a field-by-field basis for the entire study area. Six hundred and forty-three fields were delineated. The water source, irrigation system, crop type, and field activity for 2005 were identified and verified through field reconnaissance. These data were integrated in a geodatabase and analyzed to develop estimates of irrigated acreage for the 2000, 2002, and 2005 growing seasons by hydrographic area and subbasin. Estimated average annual potential evapotranspiration and average annual precipitation also were estimated for each field.The geodatabase was analyzed to determine the spatial distribution of field locations, the total amount of irrigated acreage by potential irrigation water source, by irrigation system, and by crop type. Irrigated acreage in 2005 totaled nearly 32,000 acres ranging from less than 200 acres in Butte, Cave, Jakes, Long, and Tippett Valleys to 9,300 acres in Snake Valley. Irrigated acreage increased about 20 percent between 2000 and 2005 and increased the most in Snake and White River Valleys. Ground-water supplies as much as 80 percent of irrigation water during dry years. Almost 90 percent of the irrigated acreage was planted with alfalfa.

Communicating landslide risk by combining hazard and open infrastructure data in interactive visualizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tost, Jordi; Olen, Stephanie M.; Bookhagen, Bodo; Heidmann, Frank

2017-04-01

The DIGENTI project ("DIGitaler ENtscheiderTIsch für das Naturgefahrenmanagement auf Basis von Satellitendaten und Volunteered Geographic Information") has the goal of quantifying and communicating the threat of natural hazards in the Cesar and La Guajira departments of northeast Colombia. The end-goal of the project is to provide an interactive guide for policy and decision makers, and for disaster relief coordination. Over the last years, abundant research has been done in order to analyze risk and to provide relevant information that improves effectiveness in disaster management. The communication of natural hazards risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of hazard maps. In the context of landslides, hazard maps are used to depict potential danger from landslides and visualize the possibility of future landsliding throughout a given area. Such hazard maps provide a static snapshot of the local estimated threat in a region. However, in mountainous regions, a sufficiently large landslide in remote mountainous areas may represent a potential threat to settlements located downstream of a landslide event. The research presented here proposes an approach to visualize and interactively explore landslide risk by combining static hazard maps, hydrologic networks, and OpenStreetMap data. We estimated the potential for hillslope instabilities scenarios in the region of interest by using the TanDEM-X World DEM to calculate a suite Factor of Safety (FOS) maps. The FOS estimates the ratio of total resisting and driving forces to hillslope mass movements. By combining the World DEM with other environmental data (e.g., the Harmonized World Soil Database), we were able to create a suite of high-resolution landslide potential maps for the region of interest. The suite of FOS maps are calculated based on user-selectable parameters (e.g, total mass sliding thickness) that are not well constrained by field observations. We additionally use the TanDEM-X World DEM to calculate the hydrologic network for our study area. This allows not only to delineate the stream network, but also to calculate the area upstream of settlements located near rivers or streams that may be impacted by distal landsliding. By integrating the potential landslide hazard in the upstream area, we create a more robust threat estimate for vulnerable settlements. Disaster relief is not only affected by the physical consequences of a hazardous event, but also by the area's accessibility and mobility capability for internal displacements. We therefore also estimate the threat along roads and to other infrastructure (e.g. bridges). Decisions based on the area's road network have to be constantly taken, for instance, to send rescue teams or to coordinate humanitarian logistics. With our approach, we are able to identify critical spots along roads with high likelihood of getting damaged. Furthermore, given a particular potential landslide location and the calculation of its downstream hydrologic network, it is possible to estimate which settlements, roads or bridges may be at risk. This approach could be integrated into flooding early warning systems and into the disaster management response phase to foresee dangers and losses and plan evacuations on time.

Space-based augmentation for global navigation satellite systems.

PubMed

Grewal, Mohinder S

2012-03-01

This paper describes space-based augmentation for global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). Space-based augmentations increase the accuracy and integrity of the GNSS, thereby enhancing users' safety. The corrections for ephemeris, ionospheric delay, and clocks are calculated from reference station measurements of GNSS data in wide-area master stations and broadcast via geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites. This paper discusses the clock models, satellite orbit determination, ionospheric delay estimation, multipath mitigation, and GEO uplink subsystem (GUS) as used in the Wide Area Augmentation System developed by the FAA.

VARIABILITY IN NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION AND CARBON STORAGE IN BIOMASS ACROSS OREGON FORESTS - AN ASSESSMENT INTEGRATING DATA FROM FOREST INVENTORIES, INTENSIVE SITES, AND REMOTE SENSING. (R828309)

EPA Science Inventory

We used a combination of data from USDA Forest Service inventories, intensive
chronosequences, extensive sites, and satellite remote sensing, to estimate biomass
and net primary production (NPP) for the forested region of western Oregon. The
study area was divided int...

Area-averaged evapotranspiration over a heterogeneous land surface: aggregation of multi-point EC flux measurements with a high-resolution land-cover map and footprint analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Feinan; Wang, Weizhen; Wang, Jiemin; Xu, Ziwei; Qi, Yuan; Wu, Yueru

2017-08-01

The determination of area-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) at the satellite pixel scale/model grid scale over a heterogeneous land surface plays a significant role in developing and improving the parameterization schemes of the remote sensing based ET estimation models and general hydro-meteorological models. The Heihe Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (HiWATER) flux matrix provided a unique opportunity to build an aggregation scheme for area-averaged fluxes. On the basis of the HiWATER flux matrix dataset and high-resolution land-cover map, this study focused on estimating the area-averaged ET over a heterogeneous landscape with footprint analysis and multivariate regression. The procedure is as follows. Firstly, quality control and uncertainty estimation for the data of the flux matrix, including 17 eddy-covariance (EC) sites and four groups of large-aperture scintillometers (LASs), were carefully done. Secondly, the representativeness of each EC site was quantitatively evaluated; footprint analysis was also performed for each LAS path. Thirdly, based on the high-resolution land-cover map derived from aircraft remote sensing, a flux aggregation method was established combining footprint analysis and multiple-linear regression. Then, the area-averaged sensible heat fluxes obtained from the EC flux matrix were validated by the LAS measurements. Finally, the area-averaged ET of the kernel experimental area of HiWATER was estimated. Compared with the formerly used and rather simple approaches, such as the arithmetic average and area-weighted methods, the present scheme is not only with a much better database, but also has a solid grounding in physics and mathematics in the integration of area-averaged fluxes over a heterogeneous surface. Results from this study, both instantaneous and daily ET at the satellite pixel scale, can be used for the validation of relevant remote sensing models and land surface process models. Furthermore, this work will be extended to the water balance study of the whole Heihe River basin.

A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J.; Mancusi, L.

2014-11-01

Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

A Study on Active Disaster Management System for Standardized Emergency Action Plan using BIM and Flood Damage Estimation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, C.; Om, J.; Hwang, J.; Joo, K.; Heo, J.

2013-12-01

In recent, the frequency of extreme flood has been increasing due to climate change and global warming. Highly flood damages are mainly caused by the collapse of flood control structures such as dam and dike. In order to reduce these disasters, the disaster management system (DMS) through flood forecasting, inundation mapping, EAP (Emergency Action Plan) has been studied. The estimation of inundation damage and practical EAP are especially crucial to the DMS. However, it is difficult to predict inundation and take a proper action through DMS in real emergency situation because several techniques for inundation damage estimation are not integrated and EAP is supplied in the form of a document in Korea. In this study, the integrated simulation system including rainfall frequency analysis, rainfall-runoff modeling, inundation prediction, surface runoff analysis, and inland flood analysis was developed. Using this system coupled with standard GIS data, inundation damage can be estimated comprehensively and automatically. The standard EAP based on BIM (Building Information Modeling) was also established in this system. It is, therefore, expected that the inundation damages through this study over the entire area including buildings can be predicted and managed.

Combining Observations in the Reflective Solar and Thermal Domains for Improved Mapping of Carbon, Water and Energy FLuxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houborg, Rasmus; Anderson, Martha; Kustas, Bill; Rodell, Matthew

2011-01-01

This study investigates the utility of integrating remotely sensed estimates of leaf chlorophyll (C(sub ab)) into a thermal-based Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model that estimates land-surface CO2 and energy fluxes using an analytical, light-use-efficiency (LUE) based model of canopy resistance. Day to day variations in nominal LUE (LUE(sub n)) were assessed for a corn crop field in Maryland U.S.A. through model calibration with CO2 flux tower observations. The optimized daily LUE(sub n) values were then compared to estimates of C(sub ab) integrated from gridded maps of chlorophyll content weighted over the tower flux source area. Changes in Cab exhibited a curvilinear relationship with corresponding changes in daily calibrated LUE(sub n) values derived from the tower flux data, and hourly water, energy and carbon flux estimation accuracies from TSEB were significantly improved when using C(sub ab) for delineating spatio-temporal variations in LUE(sub n). The results demonstrate the synergy between thermal infrared and shortwave reflective wavebands in producing valuable remote sensing data for monitoring of carbon and water fluxes.

Onset of detachment in adhesive contact of an elastic half-space and flat-ended punches with non-circular shape: analytic estimates and comparison with numeric analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiang; Argatov, Ivan; Popov, Valentin L.

2018-04-01

A recent paper by Popov, Pohrt and Li (PPL) in Friction investigated adhesive contacts of flat indenters in unusual shapes using numerical, analytical and experimental methods. Based on that paper, we analyze some special cases for which analytical solutions are known. As in the PPL paper, we consider adhesive contact in the Johnson-Kendall-Roberts approximation. Depending on the energy balance, different upper and lower estimates are obtained in terms of certain integral characteristics of the contact area. The special cases of an elliptical punch as well as a system of two circular punches are considered. Theoretical estimations for the first critical force (force at which the detachment process begins) are confirmed by numerical simulations using the adhesive boundary element method. It is shown that simpler approximations for the pull-off force, based both on the Holm radius of contact and the contact area, substantially overestimate the maximum adhesive force.

Estimating Leaf Area Index in Southeast Alaska: A Comparison of Two Techniques

PubMed Central

Eckrich, Carolyn A.; Flaherty, Elizabeth A.; Ben-David, Merav

2013-01-01

The relationship between canopy structure and light transmission to the forest floor is of particular interest for studying the effects of succession, timber harvest, and silviculture prescriptions on understory plants and trees. Indirect measurements of leaf area index (LAI) estimated using gap fraction analysis with linear and hemispheric sensors have been commonly used to assess radiation interception by the canopy, although the two methods often yield inconsistent results. We compared simultaneously obtained measurements of LAI from a linear ceptometer and digital hemispheric photography in 21 forest stands on Prince of Wales Island, Alaska. We assessed the relationship between these estimates and allometric LAI based on tree diameter at breast height (LAIDBH). LAI values measured at 79 stations in thinned, un-thinned controls, old-growth and clearcut stands were highly correlated between the linear sensor (AccuPAR) and hemispheric photography, but the latter was more negatively biased compared to LAIDBH. In contrast, AccuPAR values were more similar to LAIDBH in all stands with basal area less than 30 m2ha−1. Values produced by integrating hemispheric photographs over the zenith angles 0–75° (Ring 5) were highly correlated with those integrated over the zenith angles 0–60° (Ring 4), although the discrepancies between the two measures were significant. On average, the AccuPAR estimates were 53% higher than those derived from Ring 5, with most of the differences in closed canopy stands (unthinned controls and old-growth) and less so in clearcuts. Following typical patterns of canopy closure, AccuPAR LAI values were higher in dense control stands than in old-growth, whereas the opposite was derived from Ring 5 analyses. Based on our results we advocate the preferential use of linear sensors where canopy openness is low, canopies are tall, and leaf distributions are clumped and angles are variable, as is common in the conifer forests of coastal Alaska. PMID:24223718

A new contrast-assisted method in microcirculation volumetric flow assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Sheng-Yi; Chen, Yung-Sheng; Yeh, Chih-Kuang

2007-03-01

Microcirculation volumetric flow rate is a significant index in diseases diagnosis and treatment such as diabetes and cancer. In this study, we propose an integrated algorithm to assess microcirculation volumetric flow rate including estimation of blood perfused area and corresponding flow velocity maps based on high frequency destruction/contrast replenishment imaging technique. The perfused area indicates the blood flow regions including capillaries, arterioles and venules. Due to the echo variance changes between ultrasonic contrast agents (UCAs) pre- and post-destruction two images, the perfused area can be estimated by the correlation-based approach. The flow velocity distribution within the perfused area can be estimated by refilling time-intensity curves (TICs) after UCAs destruction. Most studies introduced the rising exponential model proposed by Wei (1998) to fit the TICs. Nevertheless, we found the TICs profile has a great resemblance to sigmoid function in simulations and in vitro experiments results. Good fitting correlation reveals that sigmoid model was more close to actual fact in describing destruction/contrast replenishment phenomenon. We derived that the saddle point of sigmoid model is proportional to blood flow velocity. A strong linear relationship (R = 0.97) between the actual flow velocities (0.4-2.1 mm/s) and the estimated saddle constants was found in M-mode and B-mode flow phantom experiments. Potential applications of this technique include high-resolution volumetric flow rate assessment in small animal tumor and the evaluation of superficial vasculature in clinical studies.

Computer-assisted stereology and automated image analysis for quantification of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes in colon cancer.

PubMed

Eriksen, Ann C; Andersen, Johnnie B; Kristensson, Martin; dePont Christensen, René; Hansen, Torben F; Kjær-Frifeldt, Sanne; Sørensen, Flemming B

2017-08-29

Precise prognostic and predictive variables allowing improved post-operative treatment stratification are missing in patients treated for stage II colon cancer (CC). Investigation of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) may be rewarding, but the lack of a standardized analytic technique is a major concern. Manual stereological counting is considered the gold standard, but digital pathology with image analysis is preferred due to time efficiency. The purpose of this study was to compare manual stereological estimates of TILs with automatic counts obtained by image analysis, and at the same time investigate the heterogeneity of TILs. From 43 patients treated for stage II CC in 2002 three paraffin embedded, tumor containing tissue blocks were selected one of them representing the deepest invasive tumor front. Serial sections from each of the 129 blocks were immunohistochemically stained for CD3 and CD8, and the slides were scanned. Stereological estimates of the numerical density and area fraction of TILs were obtained using the computer-assisted newCAST stereology system. For the image analysis approach an app-based algorithm was developed using Visiopharm Integrator System software. For both methods the tumor areas of interest (invasive front and central area) were manually delineated by the observer. Based on all sections, the Spearman's correlation coefficients for density estimates varied from 0.9457 to 0.9638 (p < 0.0001), whereas the coefficients for area fraction estimates ranged from 0.9400 to 0.9603 (P < 0.0001). Regarding heterogeneity, intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) for CD3+ TILs varied from 0.615 to 0.746 in the central area, and from 0.686 to 0.746 in the invasive area. ICC for CD8+ TILs varied from 0.724 to 0.775 in the central area, and from 0.746 to 0.765 in the invasive area. Exact objective and time efficient estimates of numerical densities and area fractions of CD3+ and CD8+ TILs in stage II colon cancer can be obtained by image analysis and are highly correlated to the corresponding estimates obtained by the gold standard based on stereology. Since the intra-tumoral heterogeneity was low, this method may be recommended for quantifying TILs in only one histological section representing the deepest invasive tumor front.

Integrated detection, estimation, and guidance in pursuit of a maneuvering target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dionne, Dany

The thesis focuses on efficient solutions of non-cooperative pursuit-evasion games with imperfect information on the state of the system. This problem is important in the context of interception of future maneuverable ballistic missiles. However, the theoretical developments are expected to find application to a broad class of hybrid control and estimation problems in industry. The validity of the results is nevertheless confirmed using a benchmark problem in the area of terminal guidance. A specific interception scenario between an incoming target with no information and a single interceptor missile with noisy measurements is analyzed in the form of a linear hybrid system subject to additive abrupt changes. The general research is aimed to achieve improved homing accuracy by integrating ideas from detection theory, state estimation theory and guidance. The results achieved can be summarized as follows. (i) Two novel maneuver detectors are developed to diagnose abrupt changes in a class of hybrid systems (detection and isolation of evasive maneuvers): a new implementation of the GLR detector and the novel adaptive- H0 GLR detector. (ii) Two novel state estimators for target tracking are derived using the novel maneuver detectors. The state estimators employ parameterized family of functions to described possible evasive maneuvers. (iii) A novel adaptive Bayesian multiple model predictor of the ballistic miss is developed which employs semi-Markov models and ideas from detection theory. (iv) A novel integrated estimation and guidance scheme that significantly improves the homing accuracy is also presented. The integrated scheme employs banks of estimators and guidance laws, a maneuver detector, and an on-line governor; the scheme is adaptive with respect to the uncertainty affecting the probability density function of the filtered state. (v) A novel discretization technique for the family of continuous-time, game theoretic, bang-bang guidance laws is introduced. The performance of the novel algorithms is assessed for the scenario of a pursuit-evasion engagement between a randomly maneuvering ballistic missile and an interceptor. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are employed to evaluate the main statistical properties of the algorithms. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

A fixed collector employing reversible vee-trough concentrator and a vacuum tube receiver for high temperature solar energy systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selcuk, M. K.

1976-01-01

A solar heat collection system employing non-tracking reflectors integrated with a fixed vacuum tube receiver which achieves modest year-round concentration (about 2) of the sunlight at low capital costs is discussed. The axis of the vee-trough reflector lies in a east-west direction and requires reversal of the reflector surfaces only twice a year without disturbing the receiver tubes and associated plumbing. It collects most of the diffuse flux. The vacuum tube receiver with selective absorber has no convection losses while radiation and conduction losses are minimal. Significant cost reductions are offered since the vee-trough can be fabricated from inexpensive polished or plastic reflector laminated sheet metal covering 2/3 of the collection area, and only about 1/3 of the area is covered with the more expensive vacuum tube receivers. Thermal and economic performance of the vee-trough vacuum tube system, year-round variation of the concentration factor, incident flux, useful heat per unit area at various operation temperatures and energy cost estimates are presented. The electrical energy cost is estimated to be 77 mills/kWh, and the system construction cost is estimated to be $1140/kWe.

Consumables and wastes estimations for the First Lunar Outpost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Theis, Ronald L. A.; Ballin, Mark G.; Evert, Martha F.

1992-01-01

The First Lunar Outpost mission is a design reference mission for the first human return to the moon. This paper describes a set of consumables and waste material estimations made on the basis of the First Lunar Outpost mission scenario developed by the NASA Exploration Programs Office. The study includes the definition of a functional interface framework and a top-level set of consumables and waste materials to be evaluated, the compilation of mass flow information from mission developers supplemented with information from the literature, and the analysis of the resulting mass flow information to gain insight about the possibility of material flow integration between the moon outpost elements. The results of the study of the details of the piloted mission and the habitat are used to identify areas where integration of consumables and wastes across different mission elements could provide possible launch mass savings.

Potential flood hazard assessment by integration of ALOS PALSAR and ASTER GDEM: a case study for the Hoa Chau commune, Hoa Vang district, in central Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huong, Do Thi Viet; Nagasawa, Ryota

2014-01-01

The potential flood hazard was assessed for the Hoa Chau commune in central Vietnam in order to identify the high flood hazard zones for the decision makers who will execute future rural planning. A new approach for deriving the potential flood hazard based on integration of inundation and flow direction maps is described. Areas inundated in the historical flood event of 2007 were extracted from Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) phased array L-band synthetic aperture data radar (PALSAR) images, while flow direction characteristics were derived from the ASTER GDEM to extract the depressed surfaces. Past flood experience and the flow direction were then integrated to analyze and rank the potential flood hazard zones. The land use/cover map extracted from LANDSAT TM and flood depth point records from field surveys were utilized to check the possibility of susceptible inundated areas, extracting data from ALOS PALSAR and ranking the potential flood hazard. The estimation of potential flood hazard areas revealed that 17.43% and 17.36% of Hoa Chau had high and medium potential flood hazards, respectively. The flow direction and ALOS PALSAR data were effectively integrated for determining the potential flood hazard when hydrological and meteorological data were inadequate and remote sensing images taken during flood times were not available or were insufficient.

Effect of irrigated rice agriculture on Japanese encephalitis, including challenges and opportunities for integrated vector management.

PubMed

Keiser, Jennifer; Maltese, Michael F; Erlanger, Tobias E; Bos, Robert; Tanner, Marcel; Singer, Burton H; Utzinger, Jürg

2005-07-01

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a disease caused by an arbovirus that is spread by marsh birds, amplified by pigs, and mainly transmitted by the bite of infected Culex tritaeniorhynchus mosquitoes. The estimated annual incidence and mortality rates are 30,000--50,000 and 10,000, respectively, and the estimated global burden of JE in 2002 was 709,000 disability-adjusted life years lost. Here, we discuss the contextual determinants of JE, and systematically examine studies assessing the relationship between irrigated rice agriculture and clinical parameters of JE. Estimates of the sizes of the rural population and population in irrigated areas are presented, and trends of the rural population, the rice-irrigated area, and the rice production are analyzed from 1963 to 2003. We find that approximately 1.9 billion people currently live in rural JE-prone areas of the world. Among them 220 million people live in proximity to rice-irrigation schemes. In 2003, the total rice harvested area of all JE-endemic countries (excluding the Russian Federation and Australia) was 1,345,000 km(2). This is an increase of 22% over the past 40 years. Meanwhile, the total rice production in these countries has risen from 226 millions of tonnes to 529 millions of tonnes (+134%). Finally, we evaluate the effect of different vector control interventions in rice fields, including environmental measures (i.e. alternate wet and dry irrigation (AWDI)), and biological control approaches (i.e. bacteria, nematodes, invertebrate predators, larvivorous fish, fungi and other natural products). We conclude that in JE-endemic rural settings, where vaccination rates are often low, an integrated vector management approach with AWDI and the use of larvivorous fish as its main components can reduce vector populations, and hence has the potential to reduce the transmission level and the burden of JE.

[Analysis of genetico-demographic structure of rural populations living near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site].

PubMed

Sviatova, G S; Berezina, G M; Abil'dinova, G Zh

2001-12-01

Rural populations neighboring the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site were used as a model to develop and test an integrated population-genetic approach to analysis of the medical genetic situation and environmental conditions in the areas studied. The contributions of individual factors of population dynamics into the formation of the genetic load were also assessed. The informative values of some genetic markers were estimated. Based on these estimates, a mathematical model was constructed that makes it possible to calculate numerical scores for analysis of the genetic loads in populations differing in environmental exposure.

Simulation of noise involved in synthetic aperture radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandchamp, Myriam; Cavassilas, Jean-Francois

1996-08-01

The synthetic aperture radr (SAR) returns from a linear distribution of scatterers are simulated and processed in order to estimate the reflectivity coefficients of the ground. An original expression of this estimate is given, which establishes the relation between the terms of signal and noise. Both are compared. One application of this formulation consists of detecting a surface ship wake on a complex SAR image. A smoothing is first accomplished on the complex image. The choice of the integration area is determined by the preceding mathematical formulation. Then a differential filter is applied, and results are shown for two parts of the wake.

Interactive rendering of acquired materials on dynamic geometry using frequency analysis.

PubMed

Bagher, Mahdi Mohammad; Soler, Cyril; Subr, Kartic; Belcour, Laurent; Holzschuch, Nicolas

2013-05-01

Shading acquired materials with high-frequency illumination is computationally expensive. Estimating the shading integral requires multiple samples of the incident illumination. The number of samples required may vary across the image, and the image itself may have high- and low-frequency variations, depending on a combination of several factors. Adaptively distributing computational budget across the pixels for shading is a challenging problem. In this paper, we depict complex materials such as acquired reflectances, interactively, without any precomputation based on geometry. In each frame, we first estimate the frequencies in the local light field arriving at each pixel, as well as the variance of the shading integrand. Our frequency analysis accounts for combinations of a variety of factors: the reflectance of the object projecting to the pixel, the nature of the illumination, the local geometry and the camera position relative to the geometry and lighting. We then exploit this frequency information (bandwidth and variance) to adaptively sample for reconstruction and integration. For example, fewer pixels per unit area are shaded for pixels projecting onto diffuse objects, and fewer samples are used for integrating illumination incident on specular objects.

Estimation of sediment yield from subsequent expanded landslides after heavy rainfalls : a case study in central Hokkaido, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshimizu, K.; Uchida, T.

2015-12-01

Initial large-scale sediment yield caused by heavy rainfall or major storms have made a strong impression on us. Previous studies focusing on landslide management investigated the initial sediment movement and its mechanism. However, integrated management of catchment-scale sediment movements requires estimating the sediment yield, which is produced by the subsequent expanded landslides due to rainfall, in addition to the initial landslide movement. This study presents a quantitative analysis of expanded landslides by surveying the Shukushubetsu River basin, at the foot of the Hidaka mountain range in central Hokkaido, Japan. This area recorded heavy rainfall in 2003, reaching a maximum daily precipitation of 388 mm. We extracted the expanded landslides from 2003 to 2008 using aerial photographs taken over the river area. In particular, we calculated the probability of expansion for each landslide, the ratio of the landslide area in 2008 as compared with that in 2003, and the amount of the expanded landslide area corresponding to the initial landslide area. As a result, it is estimated 24% about probability of expansion for each landslide. In addition, each expanded landslide area is smaller than the initial landslide area. Furthermore, the amount of each expanded landslide area in 2008 is approximately 7% of their landslide area in 2003. Therefore, the sediment yield from subsequent expanded landslides is equal to or slightly greater than the sediment yield in a typical base flow. Thus, we concluded that the amount of sediment yield from subsequent expanded landslides is lower than that of initial large-scale sediment yield caused by a heavy rainfall in terms of effect on management of catchment-scale sediment movement.

Using ecological propensity score to adjust for missing confounders in small area studies.

PubMed

Wang, Yingbo; Pirani, Monica; Hansell, Anna L; Richardson, Sylvia; Blangiardo, Marta

2017-11-09

Small area ecological studies are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the impact of area level risk factors on health outcomes when data are only available in an aggregated form. However, the resulting estimates are often biased due to unmeasured confounders, which typically are not available from the standard administrative registries used for these studies. Extra information on confounders can be provided through external data sets such as surveys or cohorts, where the data are available at the individual level rather than at the area level; however, such data typically lack the geographical coverage of administrative registries. We develop a framework of analysis which combines ecological and individual level data from different sources to provide an adjusted estimate of area level risk factors which is less biased. Our method (i) summarizes all available individual level confounders into an area level scalar variable, which we call ecological propensity score (EPS), (ii) implements a hierarchical structured approach to impute the values of EPS whenever they are missing, and (iii) includes the estimated and imputed EPS into the ecological regression linking the risk factors to the health outcome. Through a simulation study, we show that integrating individual level data into small area analyses via EPS is a promising method to reduce the bias intrinsic in ecological studies due to unmeasured confounders; we also apply the method to a real case study to evaluate the effect of air pollution on coronary heart disease hospital admissions in Greater London. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Quantifying the negative impact of brain drain on the integration of European science

PubMed Central

Doria Arrieta, Omar A.; Pammolli, Fabio; Petersen, Alexander M.

2017-01-01

The 2004/2007 European Union (EU) enlargement by 12 member states offers a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of EU efforts to expand and integrate the scientific competitiveness of the European Research Area (ERA). We apply two causal estimation schemes to cross-border collaboration data extracted from millions of academic publications from 1996 to 2012, which are disaggregated across 14 subject areas and 32 European countries. Our results illustrate the unintended consequences following the 2004/2007 enlargement, namely, its negative impact on cross-border collaboration in science. First, we use the synthetic control method to show that levels of European cross-border collaboration would have been higher without EU enlargement, despite the 2004/2007 EU entrants gaining access to EU resources incentivizing cross-border integration. Second, we implement a difference-in-difference panel regression, incorporating official intra-European high-skilled mobility statistics, to identify migration imbalance—principally from entrant to incumbent EU member states—as a major factor underlying the divergence in cross-border integration between Western and Eastern Europe. These results challenge central tenets underlying ERA integration policies that unifying labor markets will increase the international competitiveness of the ERA, thereby calling attention to the need for effective home-return incentives and policies. PMID:28439544

Quantifying the negative impact of brain drain on the integration of European science.

PubMed

Doria Arrieta, Omar A; Pammolli, Fabio; Petersen, Alexander M

2017-04-01

The 2004/2007 European Union (EU) enlargement by 12 member states offers a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of EU efforts to expand and integrate the scientific competitiveness of the European Research Area (ERA). We apply two causal estimation schemes to cross-border collaboration data extracted from millions of academic publications from 1996 to 2012, which are disaggregated across 14 subject areas and 32 European countries. Our results illustrate the unintended consequences following the 2004/2007 enlargement, namely, its negative impact on cross-border collaboration in science. First, we use the synthetic control method to show that levels of European cross-border collaboration would have been higher without EU enlargement, despite the 2004/2007 EU entrants gaining access to EU resources incentivizing cross-border integration. Second, we implement a difference-in-difference panel regression, incorporating official intra-European high-skilled mobility statistics, to identify migration imbalance-principally from entrant to incumbent EU member states-as a major factor underlying the divergence in cross-border integration between Western and Eastern Europe. These results challenge central tenets underlying ERA integration policies that unifying labor markets will increase the international competitiveness of the ERA, thereby calling attention to the need for effective home-return incentives and policies.

Visual-vestibular cue integration for heading perception: applications of optimal cue integration theory.

PubMed

Fetsch, Christopher R; Deangelis, Gregory C; Angelaki, Dora E

2010-05-01

The perception of self-motion is crucial for navigation, spatial orientation and motor control. In particular, estimation of one's direction of translation, or heading, relies heavily on multisensory integration in most natural situations. Visual and nonvisual (e.g., vestibular) information can be used to judge heading, but each modality alone is often insufficient for accurate performance. It is not surprising, then, that visual and vestibular signals converge frequently in the nervous system, and that these signals interact in powerful ways at the level of behavior and perception. Early behavioral studies of visual-vestibular interactions consisted mainly of descriptive accounts of perceptual illusions and qualitative estimation tasks, often with conflicting results. In contrast, cue integration research in other modalities has benefited from the application of rigorous psychophysical techniques, guided by normative models that rest on the foundation of ideal-observer analysis and Bayesian decision theory. Here we review recent experiments that have attempted to harness these so-called optimal cue integration models for the study of self-motion perception. Some of these studies used nonhuman primate subjects, enabling direct comparisons between behavioral performance and simultaneously recorded neuronal activity. The results indicate that humans and monkeys can integrate visual and vestibular heading cues in a manner consistent with optimal integration theory, and that single neurons in the dorsal medial superior temporal area show striking correlates of the behavioral effects. This line of research and other applications of normative cue combination models should continue to shed light on mechanisms of self-motion perception and the neuronal basis of multisensory integration.

An integrated study of earth resources in the state of California using remote sensing techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colwell, R. N. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A weighted stratified double sample design using hardcopy LANDSAT-1 and ground data was utilized in developmental studies for snow water content estimation. Study results gave a correlation coefficient of 0.80 between LANDSAT sample units estimates of snow water content and ground subsamples. A basin snow water content estimate allowable error was given as 1.00 percent at the 99 percent confidence level with the same budget level utilized in conventional snow surveys. Several evapotranspiration estimation models were selected for efficient application at each level of data to be sampled. An area estimation procedure for impervious surface types of differing impermeability adjacent to stream channels was developed. This technique employs a double sample of 1:125,000 color infrared hightflight transparency data with ground or large scale photography.

Study on forest above-ground biomass synergy inversion from GLAS and HJ-1 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Zhou; Cao, Chunxiang; Ji, Wei; Xu, Min; Chen, Wei

2012-10-01

The need exists to develop a systematic approach to inventory and monitor global forests, both for carbon stock evaluation and for land use change analysis. The use of freely available satellite-based data for carbon stock estimation mitigates both the cost and the spatial limitations of field-based techniques. Spaceborne lidar data have been demonstrated as useful for forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation over a wide range of biomass values and forest types. However, the application of these data is limited because of their spatially discrete nature. Spaceborne multispectral sensors have been used extensively to estimate AGB, but these methods have been demonstrated as inappropriate for forest structure characterization in high-biomass mature forests. This study uses an integration of ICESat Geospatial Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) lidar and HJ-1 satellites data to develop methods to estimate AGB in an area of Qilian Mountains, Northwest China. Considering the study area belongs to mountainous terrain, the difficulties of this article are how to extract canopy height from GLAS waveform metrics. Combining with HJ-1 data and ground survey data of the study area, we establish forest biomass estimation model for the GLAS data based on BP neural network model. In order to estimate AGB, the training sample data includes the canopy height extracted from GLAS, LAI, vegetation coverage and several kinds of vegetation indices from HJ-1 data. The results of forest aboveground biomass are very close to the fields measured results, and are consistent with land cover data in the spatial distribution.

An integrated assessment of soil erosion dynamics with special emphasis on gully erosion: Case studies from South Africa and Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maerker, Michael; Sommer, Christian; Zakerinejad, Reza; Cama, Elena

2017-04-01

Soil erosion by water is a significant problem in arid and semi arid areas of large parts of Iran. Water erosion is one of the most effective phenomena that leads to decreasing soil productivity and pollution of water resources. Especially in semiarid areas like in the Mazayjan watershed in the Southwestern Fars province as well as in the Mkomazi catchment in Kwa Zulu Natal, South Africa, gully erosion contributes to the sediment dynamics in a significant way. Consequently, the intention of this research is to identify the different types of soil erosion processes acting in the area with a stochastic approach and to assess the process dynamics in an integrative way. Therefore, we applied GIS, and satellite image analysis techniques to derive input information for the numeric models. For sheet and rill erosion the Unit Stream Power-based Erosion Deposition Model (USPED) was utilized. The spatial distribution of gully erosion was assessed using a statistical approach which used three variables (stream power index, slope, and flow accumulation) to predict the spatial distribution of gullies in the study area. The eroded gully volumes were estimated for a multiple years period by fieldwork and Google Earth high resolution images as well as with structure for motion algorithm. Finally, the gully retreat rates were integrated into the USPED model. The results show that the integration of the SPI approach to quantify gully erosion with the USPED model is a suitable method to qualitatively and quantitatively assess water erosion processes in data scarce areas. The application of GIS and stochastic model approaches to spatialize the USPED model input yield valuable results for the prediction of soil erosion in the test areas. The results of this research help to develop an appropriate management of soil and water resources in the study areas.

Rapid determination of leaf area and plant height by using light curtain arrays in four species with contrasting shoot architecture

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Light curtain arrays (LC), a recently introduced phenotyping method, yield a binary data matrix from which a shoot silhouette is reconstructed. We addressed the accuracy and applicability of LC in assessing leaf area and maximum height (base to the highest leaf tip) in a phenotyping platform. LC were integrated to an automated routine for positioning, allowing in situ measurements. Two dicotyledonous (rapeseed, tomato) and two monocotyledonous (maize, barley) species with contrasting shoot architecture were investigated. To evaluate if averaging multiple view angles helps in resolving self-overlaps, we acquired a data set by rotating plants every 10° for 170°. To test how rapid these measurements can be without loss of information, we evaluated nine scanning speeds. Leaf area of overlapping plants was also estimated to assess the possibility to scale this method for plant stands. Results The relation between measured and calculated maximum height was linear and nearly the same for all species. Linear relations were also found between plant leaf area and calculated pixel area. However, the regression slope was different between monocotyledonous and dicotyledonous species. Increasing the scanning speed stepwise from 0.9 to 23.4 m s−1 did not affect the estimation of maximum height. Instead, the calculated pixel area was inversely proportional to scanning speed. The estimation of plant leaf area by means of calculated pixel area became more accurate by averaging consecutive silhouettes and/or increasing the angle between them. Simulations showed that decreasing plant distance gradually from 20 to 0 cm, led to underestimation of plant leaf area owing to overlaps. This underestimation was more important for large plants of dicotyledonous species and for small plants of monocotyledonous ones. Conclusions LC offer an accurate estimation of plant leaf area and maximum height, while the number of consecutive silhouettes that needs to be averaged is species-dependent. A constant scanning speed is important for leaf area estimations by using LC. Simulations of the effect of varying plant spacing gave promising results for method application in sets of partly overlapping plants, which applies also to field conditions during and after canopy closure for crops sown in rows. PMID:24721154

Human Systems Integration Design Environment (HSIDE)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-09

quality of the resulting HSI products. 15. SUBJECT TERMS HSI , Manning Estimation and Validation , Risk Assessment, I POE, PLM, BPMN , Workflow...business process model in Business Process Modeling Notation ( BPMN ) or the actual workflow template associated with the specific functional area, again...as filtered by the user settings in the high level interface. Figure 3 shows the initial screen which allows the user to select either the BPMN or

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dhondt, Stijn, E-mail: stijn.dhondt@vub.ac.be; Beckx, Carolien, E-mail: Carolien.Beckx@vito.be; Degraeuwe, Bart, E-mail: Bart.Degraeuwe@vito.be

In both ambient air pollution epidemiology and health impact assessment an accurate assessment of the population exposure is crucial. Although considerable advances have been made in assessing human exposure outdoors, the assessments often do not consider the impact of individual travel behavior on such exposures. Population-based exposures to NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} using only home addresses were compared with models that integrate all time-activity patterns-including time in commute-for Flanders and Brussels. The exposure estimates were used to estimate the air pollution impact on years of life lost due to respiratory mortality. Health impact of NO{sub 2} using an exposuremore » that integrates time-activity information was on average 1.2% higher than when assuming that people are always at their home address. For ozone the overall estimated health impact was 0.8% lower. Local differences could be much larger, with estimates that differ up to 12% from the exposure using residential addresses only. Depending on age and gender, deviations from the population average were seen. Our results showed modest differences on a regional level. At the local level, however, time-activity patterns indicated larger differences in exposure and health impact estimates, mainly for people living in more rural areas. These results suggest that for local analyses the dynamic approach can contribute to an improved assessment of the health impact of various types of pollution and to the understanding of exposure differences between population groups. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Exposure to ambient air pollution was assessed integrating population mobility. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This dynamic exposure was integrated into a health impact assessment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Differences between the dynamic and residential exposure were quantified. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Modest differences in health impact were found at a regional level. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer At municipal level larger differences were found, influenced by gender and age.« less

Integrated exploration method used in search for stratigraphic traps in Illinois basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caserotti, P.M.

1989-08-01

A new oil pool was discovered in Marion County, Illinois, during 1988, using this integrated approach. The discovery is within 2.5 mi of the Salem field, which was discovered in 1938 and has produced more than 387 million bbl of oil. Numerous seismic surveys have been conducted in the area since the Salem field discovery over 50 years ago. Using structure maps developed from the available seismic data, well control, and depositional models, a Ste. Genevieve (middle Mississippian Valmeyeran) prospect was developed on the northeast flank of the Salem anticline. The initial well encountered 8 ft of oil-saturated oolitic limestonemore » in the McClosky zone of the Ste. Genevieve Limestone. Subsequent drilling resulted in four additional oil wells. The size of the reservoir is approximately 120 ac with primary recovery estimated at 200,000 bbl of oil. The depth of the reservoir is 2,250 ft, with an average porosity of 14% and permeability of 300 md. The trapping mechanism is stratigraphic - an oolite bar draped across a gentle nose, which was originally interpreted from the seismic information. Numerous analogous situations exist in the Salem anticline area as well as near other large structures in the basin. An integrated exploration approach can help define these areas and lead to commercial discoveries in mature areas.« less

Methodology for estimating nutrient loads discharged from the east coast canals to Biscayne Bay, Miami-Dade County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lietz, Arthur C.

1999-01-01

Biscayne Bay is an oligotrophic, subtropical estuary located along the southeastern coast of Florida that provides habitat for a variety of plant and animal life. Concern has arisen with regard to the ecological health of Biscayne Bay because of the presence of nutrient-laden discharges from the east coast canals that drain into the bay. This concern, as well as planned diversion of discharges for ecosystem restoration from the urban and agricultural corridors of Miami-Dade County to Everglades National Park, served as the impetus for a study conducted during the 1996 and 1997 water years to estimate nutrient loads discharged from the east coast canals into Biscayne Bay. Analytical results indicated that the highest concentration of any individual nutrient sampled for in the study was 4.38 mg/L (milligrams per liter) for nitrate at one site, and the lowest concentrations determined were below the detection limits for orthophosphate at six sites and nitrite at four sites. Median concentrations for all the sites were 0.75 mg/L for total organic nitrogen, 0.10 mg/L for ammonia, 0.02 mg/L for nitrite, 0.18 mg/L for nitrate, 0.20 mg/L for nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, 0.02 mg/L for total phosphorus, and 0.005 mg/L for orthophosphate. The maximum total phosphorus concentration of 0.31 mg/L was the only nutrient concentration to exceed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1986) water-quality criteria. High concentrations of total phosphorus usually reflect contamination as a result of human activities. Five sites exceeded the fresh-water quality standard of 0.5 mg/L for ammonia concentration as determined by the Miami-Dade County Department of Environmental Resources Management. Median total organic nitrogen concentrations were higher in urban and forested/wetland areas than in agricultural areas; median concentrations of nitrite, nitrate, and nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen were higher in agricultural areas than in urban and forested/wetland areas; and ammonia, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate concentrations were higher in urban areas than in agricultural and forested/wetland areas. These results coincide with expected differences in nutrient concentrations based on knowledge of point and nonpoint source influences and nutrient cycling. The Wilcoxon signed ranks test (WSRT) was used to compare differences between point (grab) samples and depth-integrated samples for total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations at 12 east coast canal sites. Statistically significant differences (alpha level of 0.025) in total phosphorus concentrations between point (grab) samples collected 1.0 meter deep and depth-integrated samples were detected at three sites. One site also showed statistically significant differences in total phosphorus concentrations between point (grab) samples collected 0.5 meter deep and depth-integrated samples. There were no statistically significant differences in total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations between point (grab) samples collected 0.5 meter deep and 1.0 meter deep for all the sites. Results of the line of organic correlation, a fitting procedure used to compare point (grab) and depth-integrated samples where statistically significant differences exist as defined by the WSRT, indicated that point (grab) samples underestimate total phosphorus concentrations when compared to depth-integrated samples. This underestimation probably can be attributed to the reduced suspended-sediment concentrations near the surface during periods of flow as compared to those near the streambed. Predictive models were developed to estimate total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads by means of an ordinary least-squares regression technique. Instantaneous discharge was used as the independent variable, and total phosphorus load or total nitrogen load represented the dependent variable. A software program called Estimator was used to develop the regression models and to compute total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads

Long-term radon concentrations estimated from 210Po embedded in glass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lively, R.S.; Steck, D.J.

1993-01-01

Measured surface-alpha activity on glass exposed in radon chambers and houses has a linear correlation to the integrated radon exposure. Experimental results in chambers and houses have been obtained on glass exposed to radon concentrations between 100 Bq m-3 and 9 MBq m-3 for periods of a few days to several years. Theoretical calculations support the experimental results through a model that predicts the fractions of airborne activity that deposit and become embedded or adsorbed. The combination of measured activity and calculated embedded fraction for a given deposition environment can be applied to most indoor areas and produces a better estimate for lifetime radon exposure than estimates based on short-term indoor radon measurements.

Impact of a Malaria-Control Project in Benin That Included the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness Strategy

PubMed Central

Onikpo, Faustin; Lama, Marcel; Osterholt, Dawn M.; Deming, Michael S.

2011-01-01

Objectives. To estimate the impact of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) strategy on early-childhood mortality, we evaluated a malaria-control project in Benin that implemented IMCI and promoted insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Methods. We conducted a before-and-after intervention study that included a nonrandomized comparison group. We used the preceding birth technique to measure early-childhood mortality (risk of dying before age 30 months), and we used health facility surveys and household surveys to measure process indicators. Results. Most process indicators improved in the area covered by the intervention. Notably, because ITNs were also promoted in the comparison area children's ITN use increased by about 20 percentage points in both areas. Regarding early-childhood mortality, the trend from baseline (1999–2001) to follow-up (2002–2004) for the intervention area (13.0% decrease; P < .001) was 14.1% (P < .001) lower than was the trend for the comparison area (1.3% increase; P = .46). Conclusions. Mortality decreased in the intervention area after IMCI and ITN promotion. ITN use increased similarly in both study areas, so the mortality impact of ITNs in the 2 areas might have canceled each other out. Thus, the mortality reduction could have been primarily attributable to IMCI's effect on health care quality and care-seeking. PMID:21566036

Fusion of multi-source remote sensing data for agriculture monitoring tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skakun, S.; Franch, B.; Vermote, E.; Roger, J. C.; Becker Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Masek, J. G.; Murphy, E.

2016-12-01

Remote sensing data is essential source of information for enabling monitoring and quantification of crop state at global and regional scales. Crop mapping, state assessment, area estimation and yield forecasting are the main tasks that are being addressed within GEO-GLAM. Efficiency of agriculture monitoring can be improved when heterogeneous multi-source remote sensing datasets are integrated. Here, we present several case studies of utilizing MODIS, Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data along with meteorological data (growing degree days - GDD) for winter wheat yield forecasting, mapping and area estimation. Archived coarse spatial resolution data, such as MODIS, VIIRS and AVHRR, can provide daily global observations that coupled with statistical data on crop yield can enable the development of empirical models for timely yield forecasting at national level. With the availability of high-temporal and high spatial resolution Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2A imagery, course resolution empirical yield models can be downscaled to provide yield estimates at regional and field scale. In particular, we present the case study of downscaling the MODIS CMG based generalized winter wheat yield forecasting model to high spatial resolution data sets, namely harmonized Landsat-8 - Sentinel-2A surface reflectance product (HLS). Since the yield model requires corresponding in season crop masks, we propose an automatic approach to extract winter crop maps from MODIS NDVI and MERRA2 derived GDD using Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Validation for the state of Kansas (US) and Ukraine showed that the approach can yield accuracies > 90% without using reference (ground truth) data sets. Another application of yearly derived winter crop maps is their use for stratification purposes within area frame sampling for crop area estimation. In particular, one can simulate the dependence of error (coefficient of variation) on the number of samples and strata size. This approach was used for estimating the area of winter crops in Ukraine for 2013-2016. The GMM-GDD approach is further extended for HLS data to provide automatic winter crop mapping at 30 m resolution for crop yield model and area estimation. In case of persistent cloudiness, addition of Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images is explored for automatic winter crop mapping.

Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

2013-08-01

Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

Soil loss estimation and prioritization of sub-watersheds of Kali River basin, Karnataka, India, using RUSLE and GIS.

PubMed

Markose, Vipin Joseph; Jayappa, K S

2016-04-01

Most of the mountainous regions in tropical humid climatic zone experience severe soil loss due to natural factors. In the absence of measured data, modeling techniques play a crucial role for quantitative estimation of soil loss in such regions. The objective of this research work is to estimate soil loss and prioritize the sub-watersheds of Kali River basin using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. Various thematic layers of RUSLE factors such as rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), topographic factor (LS), crop management factor (C), and support practice factor (P) have been prepared by using multiple spatial and non-spatial data sets. These layers are integrated in geographic information system (GIS) environment and estimated the soil loss. The results show that ∼42 % of the study area falls under low erosion risk and only 6.97 % area suffer from very high erosion risk. Based on the rate of soil loss, 165 sub-watersheds have been prioritized into four categories-very high, high, moderate, and low erosion risk. Anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, construction of dams, and rapid urbanization are the main reasons for high rate of soil loss in the study area. The soil erosion rate and prioritization maps help in implementation of a proper watershed management plan for the river basin.

How much swamp are we talking here?: Propagating uncertainty about the area of coastal wetlands into the U.S. greenhouse gas inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmquist, J. R.; Crooks, S.; Windham-Myers, L.; Megonigal, P.; Weller, D.; Lu, M.; Bernal, B.; Byrd, K. B.; Morris, J. T.; Troxler, T.; McCombs, J.; Herold, N.

2017-12-01

Stable coastal wetlands can store substantial amounts of carbon (C) that can be released when they are degraded or eroded. The EPA recently incorporated coastal wetland net-storage and emissions within the Agricultural Forested and Other Land Uses category of the U.S. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI). This was a seminal analysis, but its quantification of uncertainty needs improvement. We provide a value-added analysis by estimating that uncertainty, focusing initially on the most basic assumption, the area of coastal wetlands. We considered three sources: uncertainty in the areas of vegetation and salinity subclasses, uncertainty in the areas of changing or stable wetlands, and uncertainty in the inland extent of coastal wetlands. The areas of vegetation and salinity subtypes, as well as stable or changing, were estimated from 2006 and 2010 maps derived from Landsat imagery by the Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP). We generated unbiased area estimates and confidence intervals for C-CAP, taking into account mapped area, proportional areas of commission and omission errors, as well as the number of observations. We defined the inland extent of wetlands as all land below the current elevation of twice monthly highest tides. We generated probabilistic inundation maps integrating wetland-specific bias and random error in light-detection and ranging elevation maps, with the spatially explicit random error in tidal surfaces generated from tide gauges. This initial uncertainty analysis will be extended to calculate total propagated uncertainty in the NGGI by including the uncertainties in the amount of C lost from eroded and degraded wetlands, stored annually in stable wetlands, and emitted in the form of methane by tidal freshwater wetlands.

Improved method of step length estimation based on inverted pendulum model.

PubMed

Zhao, Qi; Zhang, Boxue; Wang, Jingjing; Feng, Wenquan; Jia, Wenyan; Sun, Mingui

2017-04-01

Step length estimation is an important issue in areas such as gait analysis, sport training, or pedestrian localization. In this article, we estimate the step length of walking using a waist-worn wearable computer named eButton. Motion sensors within this device are used to record body movement from the trunk instead of extremities. Two signal-processing techniques are applied to our algorithm design. The direction cosine matrix transforms vertical acceleration from the device coordinates to the topocentric coordinates. The empirical mode decomposition is used to remove the zero- and first-order skew effects resulting from an integration process. Our experimental results show that our algorithm performs well in step length estimation. The effectiveness of the direction cosine matrix algorithm is improved from 1.69% to 3.56% while the walking speed increased.

Brazilian Amazon Roads and Parks: Temporal & Spatial Deforestation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfaff, A.; Robalino, J.

2011-12-01

Heterogeneous Forest Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: spatial frontier dynamics & impacts of Brazilian Amazon road changes Prior research on road impacts has almost completely ignored heterogeneity of impacts and as a result both empirically understated potential impact and missed policy potential. We note von Thunen's model suggests not only heterogeneity with distance from market but also specifically road impacts rising then falling with distance ('non-monoThunicity') Endogenous development and partial adjustment dynamics support this for the short run. Causal effects result from studying Brazilian Amazon deforestation (1976-87, 2000-04) using matching for short-run responses to lagged new roads changes (1968-75, 1985-00). We show the critical role of prior development, proxied by 1968 and 1985 road distances, for which exact matching addresses development trends and transforms impact estimates. Splitting the sample on this measure finds confirmation of the nonmonotonic predictions: new road impacts are relatively low if a prior road was close, such that prior transport access and endogenous development dynamics compete with the new road for influence, but also if a prior road was far, since first-decade adjustment in pristine areas is limited; yet in between these bounds, investments immediately raise deforestation significantly. This pattern helps to explain lower estimates within research on a single average impact. It suggests potential for REDD if a country chooses to shift its spatial transport networks. Protected Areas & Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: modeling and testing the impacts of varied PA strategies We model and then estimate the impacts of multiple types of protected areas upon 2000 - 2004 deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Our modeling starts with federal versus state objectives and predicts differences in both choice and implementation of each PA strategy that we examine. Our empirical examination brings not only breakdowns sufficient to test the model's implications but also, critically, explicit controls for the influences of the characteristics of protected lands. Controlling for how PAs differ from unprotected lands cuts impact estimates roughly in half, implying that accounting for and planning around site characteristics should be a part of REDD. For instance, we highlight differences among the improved impacts estimates across PA subsets: Federal vs. State vs. Indigenous; 1980s vs. 1990s; and Integral Protection vs. Sustainable Use. Without correcting for the differences in land characteristics, each of the subsets we examine is estimated to cause significant reduction in deforestation. Corrections find Federal and Indigenous prevented more clearing than did State, while Sustainable Use areas blocked more deforestation than Integral Protection. The reason for these unequal shifts in estimates is that the different PA subsets were allocated to different types of locations. That protection's impact is not uniform is important for REDD and those designing institutions should note what local planners may favor.

Modelling surface water-groundwater interaction with a conceptual approach: model development and application in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Zammit, C.; McMillan, H. K.

2016-12-01

As in most countries worldwide, water management in lowland areas is a big concern for New Zealand due to its economic importance for water related human activities. As a result, the estimation of available water resources in these areas (e.g., for irrigation and water supply purpose) is crucial and often requires an understanding of complex hydrological processes, which are often characterized by strong interactions between surface water and groundwater (usually expressed as losing and gaining rivers). These processes are often represented and simulated using integrated physically based hydrological models. However models with physically based groundwater modules typically require large amount of non-readily available geologic and aquifer information and are computationally intensive. Instead, this paper presents a conceptual groundwater model that is fully integrated into New Zealand's national hydrological model TopNet based on TopModel concepts (Beven, 1992). Within this conceptual framework, the integrated model can simulate not only surface processes, but also groundwater processes and surface water-groundwater interaction processes (including groundwater flow, river-groundwater interaction, and groundwater interaction with external watersheds). The developed model was applied to two New Zealand catchments with different hydro-geological and climate characteristics (Pareora catchment in the Canterbury Plains and Grey catchment on the West Coast). Previous studies have documented strong interactions between the river and groundwater, based on the analysis of a large number of concurrent flow measurements and associated information along the river main stem. Application of the integrated hydrological model indicates flow simulation (compared to the original hydrological model conceptualisation) during low flow conditions are significantly improved and further insights on local river dynamics are gained. Due to its conceptual characteristics and low level of data requirement, the integrated model could be used at local and national scales to improve the simulation of hydrological processes in non-topographically driven areas (where groundwater processes are important), and to assess impact of climate change on the integrated hydrological cycle in these areas.

Estimation of saltation emission in the Kubuqi Desert, North China.

PubMed

Du, Heqiang; Xue, Xian; Wang, Tao

2014-05-01

The Kubuqi Desert suffered more severe wind erosion hazard. Every year, a mass of aeolian sand was blown in the Ten Tributaries that are tributaries of the Yellow River. To estimate the quantity of aeolian sediment blown into the Ten Tributaries from the Kubuqi Desert, it is necessary to simulate the saltation processes of the Kubuqi Desert. A saltation submodel of the IWEMS (Integrated Wind-Erosion Modeling System) and its accompanying RS (Remote Sensing) and GIS (Geographic Information System) methods were used to model saltation emissions in the Kubuqi Desert. To calibrate the saltation submodel, frontal area of vegetation, soil moisture, wind velocity and saltation sediment were observed synchronously on several points in 2011 and 2012. In this study, a model namely BEACH (Bridge Event And Continuous Hydrological) was introduced to simulate the daily soil moisture. Using the surface parameters (frontal area of vegetation and soil moisture) along with the observed wind velocities and saltation sediments for the observed points, the saltation model was calibrated and validated. To reduce the simulate error, a subdaily wind velocity program, WINDGEN was introduced in this model to simulate the hourly wind velocity of the Kubuqi Desert. By incorporating simulated hourly wind velocity, and model variables, the saltation emission of the Kubuqi Desert was modeled. The model results show that the total sediment flow rate was 1-30.99 tons/m over the last 10years (2001-2010). The saltation emission mainly occurs in the north central part of the Kubuqi Desert in winter and spring. Integrating the wind directions, the quantity of the aeolian sediment that deposits in the Ten Tributaries was estimated. Compared with the observed data by the local government and hydrometric stations, our estimation is reasonable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vegetation Coverage and Impervious Surface Area Estimated Based on the Estarfm Model and Remote Sensing Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Rongming; Wang, Shu; Guo, Jiao; Guo, Liankun

2018-04-01

Impervious surface area and vegetation coverage are important biophysical indicators of urban surface features which can be derived from medium-resolution images. However, remote sensing data obtained by a single sensor are easily affected by many factors such as weather conditions, and the spatial and temporal resolution can not meet the needs for soil erosion estimation. Therefore, the integrated multi-source remote sensing data are needed to carry out high spatio-temporal resolution vegetation coverage estimation. Two spatial and temporal vegetation coverage data and impervious data were obtained from MODIS and Landsat 8 remote sensing images. Based on the Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM), the vegetation coverage data of two scales were fused and the data of vegetation coverage fusion (ESTARFM FVC) and impervious layer with high spatiotemporal resolution (30 m, 8 day) were obtained. On this basis, the spatial variability of the seepage-free surface and the vegetation cover landscape in the study area was measured by means of statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results showed that: 1) ESTARFM FVC and impermeable surface have higher accuracy and can characterize the characteristics of the biophysical components covered by the earth's surface; 2) The average impervious surface proportion and the spatial configuration of each area are different, which are affected by natural conditions and urbanization. In the urban area of Xi'an, which has typical characteristics of spontaneous urbanization, landscapes are fragmented and have less spatial dependence.

Estimating the Health and Economic Impacts of Changes in Local Air Quality

PubMed Central

Carvour, Martha L.; Hughes, Amy E.; Fann, Neal

2018-01-01

Objectives. To demonstrate the benefits-mapping software Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE), which integrates local air quality data with previously published concentration–response and health–economic valuation functions to estimate the health effects of changes in air pollution levels and their economic consequences. Methods. We illustrate a local health impact assessment of ozone changes in the 10-county nonattainment area of the Dallas–Fort Worth region of Texas, estimating the short-term effects on mortality predicted by 2 scenarios for 3 years (2008, 2011, and 2013): an incremental rollback of the daily 8-hour maximum ozone levels of all area monitors by 10 parts per billion and a rollback-to-a-standard ambient level of 65 parts per billion at only monitors above that level. Results. Estimates of preventable premature deaths attributable to ozone air pollution obtained by the incremental rollback method varied little by year, whereas those obtained by the rollback-to-a-standard method varied by year and were sensitive to the choice of ordinality and the use of preloaded or imported data. Conclusions. BenMAP-CE allows local and regional public health analysts to generate timely, evidence-based estimates of the health impacts and economic consequences of potential policy options in their communities. PMID:29698094

Integrating multiple vegetation indices via an artificial neural network model for estimating the leaf chlorophyll content of Spartina alterniflora under interspecies competition.

PubMed

Liu, Pudong; Shi, Runhe; Zhang, Chao; Zeng, Yuyan; Wang, Jiapeng; Tao, Zhu; Gao, Wei

2017-10-31

The invasive species Spartina alterniflora and native species Phragmites australis display a significant co-occurrence zonation pattern and this co-exist region exerts most competitive situations between these two species, competing for the limited space, directly influencing the co-exist distribution in the future. However, these two species have different growth ratios in this area, which increase the difficulty to detect the distribution situation directly by remote sensing. As chlorophyll content is a key indicator of plant growth and physiological status, the objective of this study was to reduce the effect of interspecies competition when estimating Cab content; we evaluated 79 published representative indices to determine the optimal indices for estimating the chlorophyll a and b (Cab) content. After performing a sensitivity analysis for all 79 spectral indices, five spectral indices were selected and integrated using an artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate the Cab content of different competition ratios: the Gitelson ratio green index, the transformed chlorophyll absorption ratio index/optimized soil-adjusted vegetation index, the modified normalized difference vegetation index, the chlorophyll fluorescence index, and the Vogelmann chlorophyll index. The ANN method yielded better results (R 2  = 0.7110 and RMSE = 8.3829 μg cm -2 ) on average than the best single spectral index (R 2  = 0.6319 and RMSE = 9.3535 μg cm -2 ), representing an increase of 10.78% in R 2 and a decrease of 10.38% in RMSE. Our results indicated that integrating multiple vegetation indices with an ANN can alleviate the impact of interspecies competition and achieve higher estimation accuracy than the traditional approach using a single index.

Image deblurring by motion estimation for remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yueting; Wu, Jiagu; Xu, Zhihai; Li, Qi; Feng, Huajun

2010-08-01

The imagery resolution of imaging systems for remote sensing is often limited by image degradation resulting from unwanted motion disturbances of the platform during image exposures. Since the form of the platform vibration can be arbitrary, the lack of priori knowledge about the motion function (the PSF) suggests blind restoration approaches. A deblurring method which combines motion estimation and image deconvolution both for area-array and TDI remote sensing has been proposed in this paper. The image motion estimation is accomplished by an auxiliary high-speed detector and a sub-pixel correlation algorithm. The PSF is then reconstructed from estimated image motion vectors. Eventually, the clear image can be recovered by the Richardson-Lucy (RL) iterative deconvolution algorithm from the blurred image of the prime camera with the constructed PSF. The image deconvolution for the area-array detector is direct. While for the TDICCD detector, an integral distortion compensation step and a row-by-row deconvolution scheme are applied. Theoretical analyses and experimental results show that, the performance of the proposed concept is convincing. Blurred and distorted images can be properly recovered not only for visual observation, but also with significant objective evaluation increment.

Enhancing the spatial coverage of a regional high-quality hydraulic conductivity dataset with estimates made from domestic water-well specific-capacity tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priebe, Elizabeth H.; Neville, C. J.; Rudolph, D. L.

2018-03-01

The spatial coverage of hydraulic conductivity ( K) values for large-scale groundwater investigations is often poor because of the high costs associated with hydraulic testing and the large areas under investigation. Domestic water wells are ubiquitous and their well logs represent an untapped resource of information that includes mandatory specific-capacity tests, from which K can be estimated. These specific-capacity tests are routinely conducted at such low pumping rates that well losses are normally insignificant. In this study, a simple and practical approach to augmenting high-quality K values with reconnaissance-level K values from water-well specific-capacity tests is assessed. The integration of lesser quality K values from specific-capacity tests with a high-quality K data set is assessed through comparisons at two different scales: study-area-wide (a 600-km2 area in Ontario, Canada) and in a single geological formation within a portion of the broader study area (200 km2). Results of the comparisons demonstrate that reconnaissance-level K estimates from specific-capacity tests approximate the ranges and distributions of the high-quality K values. Sufficient detail about the physical basis and assumptions that are invoked in the development of the approach are presented here so that it can be applied with confidence by practitioners seeking to enhance their spatial coverage of K values with specific-capacity tests.

Micrometeorologic methods for measuring the post-application volatilization of pesticides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Majewski, M.S.

1999-01-01

A wide variety of micrometeorological measurement methods can be used to estimate the postapplication volatilization of pesticides from treated fields. All these estimation methods require that the entire study area have the same surficial characteristics, including the area surrounding the actual study site, and that the pesticide under investigation be applied as quickly and as uniformly as possible before any measurements are made. Methods such as aerodynamic profile, energy balance, eddy correlation, and relaxed eddy accumulation require a large (typically 1 or more hectare) study area so that the flux measurements can be made in a well developed atmospheric boundary- layer and that steady-state conditions exist. The area surrounding the study plot should have similar surficial characteristics as the study plot with sufficient upwind extent so the wind speed and temperature gradients are fully developed. Mass balance methods such as integrated horizontal flux and trajectory simulations do not require a large source area, but the area surrounding the study plot should have similar surficial characteristics. None of the micrometeorological techniques for estimating the postapplication volatilization fluxes of pesticides disturb the environment or the soil processes that influence the gas exchange from the surface to the atmosphere. They allow for continuous measurements and provide a temporally averaged flux value over a large area. If the behavior of volatilizing pesticides and the importance of the volatilization process in redistributing pesticides in the environment are to be fully understood, it is critical that we understand not only the processes that govern pesticide entry into the lower atmosphere, but also how much of the millions of kilograms of pesticides that are applied annually are introduced into, and redistributed by, the atmosphere. We also must be aware of the assumptions and limitations of the estimation techniques used, and adapt the field of pesticide volatilization flux measurements to advances in atmospheric science.

Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

2017-12-01

Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

Population Estimates for Chum Salmon Spawning in the Mainstem Columbia River, 2002 Technical Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rawding, Dan; Hillson, Todd D.

2003-11-15

Accurate and precise population estimates of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) spawning in the mainstem Columbia River are needed to provide a basis for informed water allocation decisions, to determine the status of chum salmon listed under the Endangered Species Act, and to evaluate the contribution of the Duncan Creek re-introduction program to mainstem spawners. Currently, mark-recapture experiments using the Jolly-Seber model provide the only framework for this type of estimation. In 2002, a study was initiated to estimate mainstem Columbia River chum salmon populations using seining data collected while capturing broodstock as part of the Duncan Creek re-introduction. The fivemore » assumptions of the Jolly-Seber model were examined using hypothesis testing within a statistical framework, including goodness of fit tests and secondary experiments. We used POPAN 6, an integrated computer system for the analysis of capture-recapture data, to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of standard model parameters, derived estimates, and their precision. A more parsimonious final model was selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Final chum salmon escapement estimates and (standard error) from seining data for the Ives Island, Multnomah, and I-205 sites are 3,179 (150), 1,269 (216), and 3,468 (180), respectively. The Ives Island estimate is likely lower than the total escapement because only the largest two of four spawning sites were sampled. The accuracy and precision of these estimates would improve if seining was conducted twice per week instead of weekly, and by incorporating carcass recoveries into the analysis. Population estimates derived from seining mark-recapture data were compared to those obtained using the current mainstem Columbia River salmon escapement methodologies. The Jolly-Seber population estimate from carcass tagging in the Ives Island area was 4,232 adults with a standard error of 79. This population estimate appears reasonable and precise but batch marks and lack of secondary studies made it difficult to test Jolly-Seber assumptions, necessary for unbiased estimates. We recommend that individual tags be applied to carcasses to provide a statistical basis for goodness of fit tests and ultimately model selection. Secondary or double marks should be applied to assess tag loss and male and female chum salmon carcasses should be enumerated separately. Carcass tagging population estimates at the two other sites were biased low due to limited sampling. The Area-Under-the-Curve escapement estimates at all three sites were 36% to 76% of Jolly-Seber estimates. Area-Under-the Curve estimates are likely biased low because previous assumptions that observer efficiency is 100% and residence time is 10 days proved incorrect. If managers continue to rely on Area-Under-the-Curve to estimate mainstem Columbia River spawners, a methodology is provided to develop annual estimates of observer efficiency and residence time, and to incorporate uncertainty into the Area-Under-the-Curve escapement estimate.« less

PHM Enabled Autonomous Propellant Loading Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Mark; Figueroa, Fernando

2017-01-01

The utility of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) software capability applied to Autonomous Operations (AO) remains an active research area within aerospace applications. The ability to gain insight into which assets and subsystems are functioning properly, along with the derivation of confident predictions concerning future ability, reliability, and availability, are important enablers for making sound mission planning decisions. When coupled with software that fully supports mission planning and execution, an integrated solution can be developed that leverages state assessment and estimation for the purposes of delivering autonomous operations. The authors have been applying this integrated, model-based approach to the autonomous loading of cryogenic spacecraft propellants at Kennedy Space Center.

Integration, Validation, and Application of a PV Snow Coverage Model in SAM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freeman, Janine M.; Ryberg, David Severin

2017-08-01

Due to the increasing deployment of PV systems in snowy climates, there is significant interest in a method capable of estimating PV losses resulting from snow coverage that has been verified for a variety of system designs and locations. Many independent snow coverage models have been developed over the last 15 years; however, there has been very little effort verifying these models beyond the system designs and locations on which they were based. Moreover, major PV modeling software products have not yet incorporated any of these models into their workflows. In response to this deficiency, we have integrated the methodologymore » of the snow model developed in the paper by Marion et al. (2013) into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM). In this work, we describe how the snow model is implemented in SAM and we discuss our demonstration of the model's effectiveness at reducing error in annual estimations for three PV arrays. Next, we use this new functionality in conjunction with a long term historical data set to estimate average snow losses across the United States for two typical PV system designs. The open availability of the snow loss estimation capability in SAM to the PV modeling community, coupled with our results of the nationwide study, will better equip the industry to accurately estimate PV energy production in areas affected by snowfall.« less

Container Closure Integrity Testing of Prefilled Syringes.

PubMed

Peláez, Sarah S; Mahler, Hanns-Christian; Matter, Anja; Koulov, Atanas; Singh, Satish K; Germershaus, Oliver; Mathaes, Roman

2018-04-05

Prefilled syringes (PFSs) are increasingly preferred over vials as container closure systems (CCSs) for injectable drug products when facilitated or self-administration is required. However, PFSs are more complex compared to CCSs consisting of vial, rubber stopper, and crimp cap. Container closure integrity (CCI) assurance and verification has been a specific challenge for PFSs as they feature several sealing areas. A comprehensive understanding of the CCS is necessary for an appropriate CCI assessment as well as for packaging development and qualification. A comprehensive CCI assessment of 6 different PFSs from 3 different manufacturers (including 1 polymeric PFS) was conducted using helium leak testing. PFS components were manipulated to systematically assess the contribution of the different sealing areas to CCI, namely rigid needle shield (RNS)/needle, RNS/tip cone, and the individual ribs of a syringe plunger. The polymeric PFS required an equilibrium measurement for accurate container closure integrity testing. The different sealing areas and a single plunger rib were shown to provide adequate CCI. Acceptable tip cap movement until the point of CCI failure was estimated. The assessment of acceptable tip cap movement demonstrated the importance of considering the RNS/tip cone seal design to ensure CCI of the PFS upon post assembly possesses and shipment. Copyright © 2018 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effective connectivity inferred from fMRI transition dynamics during movie viewing points to a balanced reconfiguration of cortical interactions.

PubMed

Gilson, Matthieu; Deco, Gustavo; Friston, Karl J; Hagmann, Patric; Mantini, Dante; Betti, Viviana; Romani, Gian Luca; Corbetta, Maurizio

2017-10-09

Our behavior entails a flexible and context-sensitive interplay between brain areas to integrate information according to goal-directed requirements. However, the neural mechanisms governing the entrainment of functionally specialized brain areas remain poorly understood. In particular, the question arises whether observed changes in the regional activity for different cognitive conditions are explained by modifications of the inputs to the brain or its connectivity? We observe that transitions of fMRI activity between areas convey information about the tasks performed by 19 subjects, watching a movie versus a black screen (rest). We use a model-based framework that explains this spatiotemporal functional connectivity pattern by the local variability for 66 cortical regions and the network effective connectivity between them. We find that, among the estimated model parameters, movie viewing affects to a larger extent the local activity, which we interpret as extrinsic changes related to the increased stimulus load. However, detailed changes in the effective connectivity preserve a balance in the propagating activity and select specific pathways such that high-level brain regions integrate visual and auditory information, in particular boosting the communication between the two brain hemispheres. These findings speak to a dynamic coordination underlying the functional integration in the brain. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Estimating temporal changes in soil carbon stocks at ecoregional scale in Madagascar using remote-sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grinand, C.; Maire, G. Le; Vieilledent, G.; Razakamanarivo, H.; Razafimbelo, T.; Bernoux, M.

2017-02-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays an important role in climate change regulation notably through release of CO2 following land use change such a deforestation, but data on stock change levels are lacking. This study aims to empirically assess SOC stocks change between 1991 and 2011 at the landscape scale using easy-to-access spatially-explicit environmental factors. The study area was located in southeast Madagascar, in a region that exhibits very high rate of deforestation and which is characterized by both humid and dry climates. We estimated SOC stock on 0.1 ha plots for 95 different locations in a 43,000 ha reference area covering both dry and humid conditions and representing different land cover including natural forest, cropland, pasture and fallows. We used the Random Forest algorithm to find out the environmental factors explaining the spatial distribution of SOC. We then predicted SOC stocks for two soil layers at 30 cm and 100 cm over a wider area of 395,000 ha. By changing the soil and vegetation indices derived from remote sensing images we were able to produce SOC maps for 1991 and 2011. Those estimates and their related uncertainties where combined in a post-processing step to map estimates of significant SOC variations and we finally compared the SOC change map with published deforestation maps. Results show that the geologic variables, precipitation, temperature, and soil-vegetation status were strong predictors of SOC distribution at regional scale. We estimated an average net loss of 10.7% and 5.2% for the 30 cm and the 100 cm layers respectively for deforested areas in the humid area. Our results also suggest that these losses occur within the first five years following deforestation. No significant variations were observed for the dry region. This study provides new solutions and knowledge for a better integration of soil threats and opportunities in land management policies.

Terrain feature recognition for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery employing spatial attributes of targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iisaka, Joji; Sakurai-Amano, Takako

1994-08-01

This paper describes an integrated approach to terrain feature detection and several methods to estimate spatial information from SAR (synthetic aperture radar) imagery. Spatial information of image features as well as spatial association are key elements in terrain feature detection. After applying a small feature preserving despeckling operation, spatial information such as edginess, texture (smoothness), region-likeliness and line-likeness of objects, target sizes, and target shapes were estimated. Then a trapezoid shape fuzzy membership function was assigned to each spatial feature attribute. Fuzzy classification logic was employed to detect terrain features. Terrain features such as urban areas, mountain ridges, lakes and other water bodies as well as vegetated areas were successfully identified from a sub-image of a JERS-1 SAR image. In the course of shape analysis, a quantitative method was developed to classify spatial patterns by expanding a spatial pattern through the use of a series of pattern primitives.

Diabatic heating rate estimates from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.

1991-01-01

Vertically integrated diabatic heating rate estimates (H) calculated from 32 months of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts daily analyses (May 1985-December 1987) are determined as residuals of the thermodynamic equation in pressure coordinates. Values for global, hemispheric, zonal, and grid point H are given as they vary over the time period examined. The distribution of H is compared with previous results and with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements. The most significant negative correlations between H and OLR occur for (1) tropical and Northern-Hemisphere mid-latitude oceanic areas and (2) zonal and hemispheric mean values for periods less than 90 days. Largest positive correlations are seen in periods greater than 90 days for the Northern Hemispheric mean and continental areas of North Africa, North America, northern Asia, and Antarctica. The physical basis for these relationships is discussed. An interyear comparison between 1986 and 1987 reveals the ENSO signal.

Department of Defense Finance and Accounting Service FY 1996/1997 Biennial Budget Estimates, February 1995.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-02-01

Descriptive Summary 2 FIP Resources and Indefinite Delivery - Quantity Contracts 3 Central Design Activity Summary 4 Accesion For NTIS CRA&IDTIC TAB...interface with financial systems should be integrated into the standard architecture of the Military Departments iii to ensure maximum cost...provided to support and maintain the DFAS enterprise local area network initiative to establish a standardized architecture for office automation and

The estimation of convective rainfall by area integrals. I - The theoretical and empirical basis. II - The height-area rainfall threshold (HART) method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Short, David A.; Atlas, David

1990-01-01

A theory is developed which establishes the basis for the use of rainfall areas within present thresholds as a measure of either the instantaneous areawide rain rate of convective storms or the total volume of rain from an individual storm over its lifetime. The method is based upon the existence of a well-behaved pdf of rain rate either from the many storms at one instant or from a single storm during its life. The generality of the instantaneous areawide method was examined by applying it to quantitative radar data sets from the GARP Tropical Atlantic Experiment for South Africa, Texas, and Darwin (Australia). It is shown that the pdf's developed for each of these areas are consistent with the theory.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

Modeling abundance effects in distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dawson, D.K.; Bates, S.

2004-01-01

Distance-sampling methods are commonly used in studies of animal populations to estimate population density. A common objective of such studies is to evaluate the relationship between abundance or density and covariates that describe animal habitat or other environmental influences. However, little attention has been focused on methods of modeling abundance covariate effects in conventional distance-sampling models. In this paper we propose a distance-sampling model that accommodates covariate effects on abundance. The model is based on specification of the distance-sampling likelihood at the level of the sample unit in terms of local abundance (for each sampling unit). This model is augmented with a Poisson regression model for local abundance that is parameterized in terms of available covariates. Maximum-likelihood estimation of detection and density parameters is based on the integrated likelihood, wherein local abundance is removed from the likelihood by integration. We provide an example using avian point-transect data of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) collected using a distance-sampling protocol and two measures of habitat structure (understory cover and basal area of overstory trees). The model yields a sensible description (positive effect of understory cover, negative effect on basal area) of the relationship between habitat and Ovenbird density that can be used to evaluate the effects of habitat management on Ovenbird populations.

Root-cause estimation of ultrasonic scattering signatures within a complex textured titanium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackshire, James L.; Na, Jeong K.; Freed, Shaun

2016-02-01

The nondestructive evaluation of polycrystalline materials has been an active area of research for many decades, and continues to be an area of growth in recent years. Titanium alloys in particular have become a critical material system used in modern turbine engine applications, where an evaluation of the local microstructure properties of engine disk/blade components is desired for performance and remaining life assessments. Current NDE methods are often limited to estimating ensemble material properties or detecting localized voids, inclusions, or damage features within a material. Recent advances in computational NDE and material science characterization methods are providing new and unprecedented access to heterogeneous material properties, which permits microstructure-sensing interactions to be studied in detail. In the present research, Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) methods and tools are being leveraged to gain a comprehensive understanding of root-cause ultrasonic scattering processes occurring within a textured titanium aerospace material. A combination of destructive, nondestructive, and computational methods are combined within the ICME framework to collect, holistically integrate, and study complex ultrasound scattering using realistic 2-dimensional representations of the microstructure properties. Progress towards validating the computational sensing methods are discussed, along with insight into the key scattering processes occurring within the bulk microstructure, and how they manifest in pulse-echo immersion ultrasound measurements.

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Using Leaf Chlorophyll to Parameterize Light-Use-Efficiency Within a Thermal-Based Carbon, Water and Energy Exchange Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houlborg, Rasmus; Anderson, Martha C.; Daughtry, C. S. T.; Kustas, W. P.; Rodell, Matthew

2010-01-01

Chlorophylls absorb photosynthetically active radiation and thus function as vital pigments for photosynthesis, which makes leaf chlorophyll content (C(sub ab) useful for monitoring vegetation productivity and an important indicator of the overall plant physiological condition. This study investigates the utility of integrating remotely sensed estimates of C(sub ab) into a thermal-based Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model that estimates land-surface CO2 and energy fluxes using an analytical, light-use-efficiency (LUE) based model of canopy resistance. The LUE model component computes canopy-scale carbon assimilation and transpiration fluxes and incorporates LUE modifications from a nominal (species-dependent) value (LUE(sub n)) in response to short term variations in environmental conditions, However LUE(sub n) may need adjustment on a daily timescale to accommodate changes in plant phenology, physiological condition and nutrient status. Day to day variations in LUE(sub n) were assessed for a heterogeneous corn crop field in Maryland, U,S.A. through model calibration with eddy covariance CO2 flux tower observations. The optimized daily LUE(sub n) values were then compared to estimates of C(sub ab) integrated from gridded maps of chlorophyll content weighted over the tower flux source area. The time continuous maps of daily C(sub ab) over the study field were generated by focusing in-situ measurements with retrievals generated with an integrated radiative transfer modeling tool (accurate to within +/-10%) using at-sensor radiances in green, red and near-infrared wavelengths acquired with an aircraft imaging system. The resultant daily changes in C(sub ab) within the tower flux source area generally correlated well with corresponding changes in daily calibrated LUE(sub n) derived from the tower flux data, and hourly water, energy and carbon flux estimation accuracies from TSEB were significantly improved when using C(sub ab) for delineating spatio-temporal variations in LUE(sub n). The results demonstrate the synergy between thermal infrared and shortwave reflective wavebands in producing valuable remote sensing data for operational monitoring of carbon and water fluxes.

An integrated method for atherosclerotic carotid plaque segmentation in ultrasound image.

PubMed

Qian, Chunjun; Yang, Xiaoping

2018-01-01

Carotid artery atherosclerosis is an important cause of stroke. Ultrasound imaging has been widely used in the diagnosis of atherosclerosis. Therefore, segmenting atherosclerotic carotid plaque in ultrasound image is an important task. Accurate plaque segmentation is helpful for the measurement of carotid plaque burden. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a novel learning-based integrated framework for plaque segmentation. In our study, four different classification algorithms, along with the auto-context iterative algorithm, were employed to effectively integrate features from ultrasound images and later also the iteratively estimated and refined probability maps together for pixel-wise classification. The four classification algorithms were support vector machine with linear kernel, support vector machine with radial basis function kernel, AdaBoost and random forest. The plaque segmentation was implemented in the generated probability map. The performance of the four different learning-based plaque segmentation methods was tested on 29 B-mode ultrasound images. The evaluation indices for our proposed methods were consisted of sensitivity, specificity, Dice similarity coefficient, overlap index, error of area, absolute error of area, point-to-point distance, and Hausdorff point-to-point distance, along with the area under the ROC curve. The segmentation method integrated the random forest and an auto-context model obtained the best results (sensitivity 80.4 ± 8.4%, specificity 96.5 ± 2.0%, Dice similarity coefficient 81.0 ± 4.1%, overlap index 68.3 ± 5.8%, error of area -1.02 ± 18.3%, absolute error of area 14.7 ± 10.9%, point-to-point distance 0.34 ± 0.10 mm, Hausdorff point-to-point distance 1.75 ± 1.02 mm, and area under the ROC curve 0.897), which were almost the best, compared with that from the existed methods. Our proposed learning-based integrated framework investigated in this study could be useful for atherosclerotic carotid plaque segmentation, which will be helpful for the measurement of carotid plaque burden. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Requirements for estimation of doses from contaminants dispersed by a 'dirty bomb' explosion in an urban area.

PubMed

Andersson, K G; Mikkelsen, T; Astrup, P; Thykier-Nielsen, S; Jacobsen, L H; Hoe, S C; Nielsen, S P

2009-12-01

The ARGOS decision support system is currently being extended to enable estimation of the consequences of terror attacks involving chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological substances. This paper presents elements of the framework that will be applied in ARGOS to calculate the dose contributions from contaminants dispersed in the atmosphere after a 'dirty bomb' explosion. Conceptual methodologies are presented which describe the various dose components on the basis of knowledge of time-integrated contaminant air concentrations. Also the aerosolisation and atmospheric dispersion in a city of different types of conceivable contaminants from a 'dirty bomb' are discussed.

Spatially explicit measures of production of young alewives in Lake Michigan: Linkage between essential fish habitat and recruitment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hook, Tomas O.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Brines, Shannon J.; Mason, Doran M.; Schwab, David J.; McCormick, Michael; Desorcie, Timothy J.

2003-01-01

The identification and protection of essential habitats for early life stages of fishes are necessary to sustain fish stocks. Essential fish habitat for early life stages may be defined as areas where fish densities, growth, survival, or production rates are relatively high. To identify critical habitats for young-of-year (YOY) alewives (Alosa pseud oharengus) in Lake Michigan, we integrated bioenergetics models with GIS (Geographic Information Systems) to generate spatially explicit estimates of potential population production (an index of habitat quality). These estimates were based upon YOY alewife bioenergetic growth rate potential and their salmonine predators’ consumptive demand. We compared estimates of potential population production to YOY alewife yield (an index of habitat importance). Our analysis suggested that during 1994–1995, YOY alewife habitat quality and yield varied widely throughout Lake Michigan. Spatial patterns of alewife yield were not significantly correlated to habitat quality. Various mechanisms (e.g., predator migrations, lake circulation patterns, alternative strategies) may preclude YOY alewives from concentrating in areas of high habitat quality in Lake Michigan.

A Software for soil quality conservation at organic waste disposal areas: The case of olive mill and pistachio wastes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doula, Maria; Sarris, Apostolos; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Hliaoutakis, Aggelos; Kydonakis, Aris; Argyriou, Lemonia; Theocharopoulos, Sid; Kolovos, Chronis

2016-04-01

For the sustainable reuse of organic wastes at agricultural areas, apart from extensive evaluation of waste properties and characteristics, it is of significant importance, in order to protect soil quality, to evaluate land suitability and estimate the correct application doses prior waste landspreading. In the light of this precondition, a software was developed that integrates GIS maps of land suitability for waste reuse (wastewater and solid waste) and an algorithm for waste doses estimation in relation to soil analysis, and in case of reuse for fertilization with soil analysis, irrigation water quality and plant needs. EU and legislation frameworks of European Member States are also considered for the assessment of waste suitability for landspreading and for the estimation of the correct doses that will not cause adverse effects on soil and also to underground water (e.g. Nitrate Directive). Two examples of software functionality are presented in this study using data collected during two LIFE projects, i.e. Prosodol for landspreading of olive mill wastes and AgroStrat for pistachio wastes.

Worldwide Historical Estimates of Leaf Area Index, 1932-2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scurlock, J. M. O.; Asner, G. P.; Gower, S. T.

2001-01-01

Approximately 1000 published estimates of leaf area index (LAI) from nearly 400 unique field sites, covering the period 1932-2000, have been compiled into a single data set. LA1 is a key parameter for global and regional models of biosphere/atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and other materials. It also plays an integral role in determining the energy balance of the land surface. This data set provides a benchmark of typical values and ranges of LA1 for a variety of biomes and land cover types, in support of model development and validation of satellite-derived remote sensing estimates of LA1 and other vegetation parameters. The LA1 data are linked to a bibliography of over 300 originalsource references.This report documents the development of this data set, its contents, and its availability on the Internet from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center for Biogeochemical Dynamics. Caution is advised in using these data, which were collected using a wide range of methodologies and assumptions that may not allow comparisons among sites.

Two-dimensional echo-cardiographic estimation of left atrial volume and volume load in patients with congenital heart disease.

PubMed

Kawaguchi, A; Linde, L M; Imachi, T; Mizuno, H; Akutsu, H

1983-12-01

To estimate the left atrial volume (LAV) and pulmonary blood flow in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), we employed two-dimensional echocardiography (TDE). The LAV was measured in dimensions other than those obtained in conventional M-mode echocardiography (M-mode echo). Mathematical and geometrical models for LAV calculation using the standard long-axis, short-axis and apical four-chamber planes were devised and found to be reliable in a preliminary study using porcine heart preparations, although length (10%), area (20%) and volume (38%) were significantly and consistently underestimated with echocardiography. Those models were then applied and correlated with angiocardiograms (ACG) in 25 consecutive patients with suspected CHD. In terms of the estimation of the absolute LAV, accuracy seemed commensurate with the number of the dimensions measured. The correlation between data obtained by TDE and ACG varied with changing hemodynamics such as cardiac cycle, absolute LAV and presence or absence of volume load. The left atrium was found to become spherical and progressively underestimated with TDE at ventricular endsystole, in larger LAV and with increased volume load. Since this tendency became less pronounced in measuring additional dimensions, reliable estimation of the absolute LAV and volume load was possible when 2 or 3 dimensions were measured. Among those calculation models depending on 2 or 3 dimensional measurements, there was only a small difference in terms of accuracy and predictability, although algorithm used varied from one model to another. This suggests that accurate cross-sectional area measurement is critically important for volume estimation rather than any particular algorithm involved. Cross-sectional area measurement by TDE integrated into a three dimensional equivalent allowed a reliable estimate of the LAV or volume load in a variety of hemodynamic situations where M-mode echo was not reliable.

Probabilistic forecasts of debris-flow hazard at the regional scale with a combination of models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malet, Jean-Philippe; Remaître, Alexandre

2015-04-01

Debris flows are one of the many active slope-forming processes in the French Alps, where rugged and steep slopes mantled by various slope deposits offer a great potential for triggering hazardous events. A quantitative assessment of debris-flow hazard requires the estimation, in a probabilistic framework, of the spatial probability of occurrence of source areas, the spatial probability of runout areas, the temporal frequency of events, and their intensity. The main objective of this research is to propose a pipeline for the estimation of these quantities at the region scale using a chain of debris-flow models. The work uses the experimental site of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), where 26 active torrents have produced more than 150 debris-flow events since 1850 to develop and validate the methodology. First, a susceptibility assessment is performed to identify the debris-flow prone source areas. The most frequently used approach is the combination of environmental factors with GIS procedures and statistical techniques, integrating or not, detailed event inventories. Based on a 5m-DEM and derivatives, and information on slope lithology, engineering soils and landcover, the possible source areas are identified with a statistical logistic regression model. The performance of the statistical model is evaluated with the observed distribution of debris-flow events recorded after 1850 in the study area. The source areas in the three most active torrents (Riou-Bourdoux, Faucon, Sanières) are well identified by the model. Results are less convincing for three other active torrents (Bourget, La Valette and Riou-Chanal); this could be related to the type of debris-flow triggering mechanism as the model seems to better spot the open slope debris-flow source areas (e.g. scree slopes), but appears to be less efficient for the identification of landslide-induced debris flows. Second, a susceptibility assessment is performed to estimate the possible runout distance with a process-based model. The MassMov-2D code is a two-dimensional model of mud and debris flow dynamics over complex topography, based on a numerical integration of the depth-averaged motion equations using shallow water approximation. The run-out simulations are performed for the most active torrents. The performance of the model has been evaluated by comparing modelling results with the observed spreading areas of several recent debris flows. Existing data on the debris flow volume, input discharge and deposits were used to back-analyze those events and estimate the values of the model parameters. Third, hazard is estimated on the basis of scenarios computed in a probabilistic way, for volumes in the range 20'000 to 350'000 m3, and for several combinations of rheological parameters. In most cases, the simulations indicate that the debris flows cause significant overflowing on the alluvial fans for volumes exceeding 100'000 m3 (height of deposits > 2 m, velocities > 5 m.s-1). Probabilities of debris flow runout and debris flow intensities are then computed for each terrain units.

Performance of GPS-devices for environmental exposure assessment.

PubMed

Beekhuizen, Johan; Kromhout, Hans; Huss, Anke; Vermeulen, Roel

2013-01-01

Integration of individual time-location patterns with spatially resolved exposure maps enables a more accurate estimation of personal exposures to environmental pollutants than using estimates at fixed locations. Current global positioning system (GPS) devices can be used to track an individual's location. However, information on GPS-performance in environmental exposure assessment is largely missing. We therefore performed two studies. First, a commute-study, where the commute of 12 individuals was tracked twice, testing GPS-performance for five transport modes and two wearing modes. Second, an urban-tracking study, where one individual was tracked repeatedly through different areas, focused on the effect of building obstruction on GPS-performance. The median error from the true path for walking was 3.7 m, biking 2.9 m, train 4.8 m, bus 4.9 m, and car 3.3 m. Errors were larger in a high-rise commercial area (median error=7.1 m) compared with a low-rise residential area (median error=2.2 m). Thus, GPS-performance largely depends on the transport mode and urban built-up. Although ~85% of all errors were <10 m, almost 1% of the errors were >50 m. Modern GPS-devices are useful tools for environmental exposure assessment, but large GPS-errors might affect estimates of exposures with high spatial variability.

The Use of CASES-97 Observations to Assess and Parameterize the Impact of Land-Surface Heterogeneity on Area-Average Surface Heat Fluxes for Large-Scale Coupled Atmosphere-Hydrology Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Fei; Yates, David; LeMone, Margaret

2001-01-01

To understand the effects of land-surface heterogeneity and the interactions between the land-surface and the planetary boundary layer at different scales, we develop a multiscale data set. This data set, based on the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES97) observations, includes atmospheric, surface, and sub-surface observations obtained from a dense observation network covering a large region on the order of 100 km. We use this data set to drive three land-surface models (LSMs) to generate multi-scale (with three resolutions of 1, 5, and 10 kilometers) gridded surface heat flux maps for the CASES area. Upon validating these flux maps with measurements from surface station and aircraft, we utilize them to investigate several approaches for estimating the area-integrated surface heat flux for the CASES97 domain of 71x74 square kilometers, which is crucial for land surface model development/validation and area water and energy budget studies. This research is aimed at understanding the relative contribution of random turbulence versus organized mesoscale circulations to the area-integrated surface flux at the scale of 100 kilometers, and identifying the most important effective parameters for characterizing the subgrid-scale variability for large-scale atmosphere-hydrology models.

Modification of a rainfall-runoff model for distributed modeling in a GIS and its validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyabeze, W. R.

A rainfall-runoff model, which can be inter-faced with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to integrate definition, measurement, calculating parameter values for spatial features, presents considerable advantages. The modification of the GWBasic Wits Rainfall-Runoff Erosion Model (GWBRafler) to enable parameter value estimation in a GIS (GISRafler) is presented in this paper. Algorithms are applied to estimate parameter values reducing the number of input parameters and the effort to populate them. The use of a GIS makes the relationship between parameter estimates and cover characteristics more evident. This paper has been produced as part of research to generalize the GWBRafler on a spatially distributed basis. Modular data structures are assumed and parameter values are weighted relative to the module area and centroid properties. Modifications to the GWBRafler enable better estimation of low flows, which are typical in drought conditions.

Experiments, conceptual design, preliminary cost estimates and schedules for an underground research facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korbin, G.; Wollenberg, H.; Wilson, C.

Plans for an underground research facility are presented, incorporating techniques to assess the hydrological and thermomechanical response of a rock mass to the introduction and long-term isolation of radioactive waste, and to assess the effects of excavation on the hydrologic integrity of a repository and its subsequent backfill, plugging, and sealing. The project is designed to utilize existing mine or civil works for access to experimental areas and is estimated to last 8 years at a total cost for contruction and operation of $39.0 million (1981 dollars). Performing the same experiments in an existing underground research facility would reduce themore » duration to 7-1/2 years and cost $27.7 million as a lower-bound estimate. These preliminary plans and estimates should be revised after specific sites are identified which would accommodate the facility.« less

Pesticide Environmental Accounting: a method for assessing the external costs of individual pesticide applications.

PubMed

Leach, A W; Mumford, J D

2008-01-01

The Pesticide Environmental Accounting (PEA) tool provides a monetary estimate of environmental and health impacts per hectare-application for any pesticide. The model combines the Environmental Impact Quotient method and a methodology for absolute estimates of external pesticide costs in UK, USA and Germany. For many countries resources are not available for intensive assessments of external pesticide costs. The model converts external costs of a pesticide in the UK, USA and Germany to Mediterranean countries. Economic and policy applications include estimating impacts of pesticide reduction policies or benefits from technologies replacing pesticides, such as sterile insect technique. The system integrates disparate data and approaches into a single logical method. The assumptions in the system provide transparency and consistency but at the cost of some specificity and precision, a reasonable trade-off for a method that provides both comparative estimates of pesticide impacts and area-based assessments of absolute impacts.

Cortical cell and neuron density estimates in one chimpanzee hemisphere.

PubMed

Collins, Christine E; Turner, Emily C; Sawyer, Eva Kille; Reed, Jamie L; Young, Nicole A; Flaherty, David K; Kaas, Jon H

2016-01-19

The density of cells and neurons in the neocortex of many mammals varies across cortical areas and regions. This variability is, perhaps, most pronounced in primates. Nonuniformity in the composition of cortex suggests regions of the cortex have different specializations. Specifically, regions with densely packed neurons contain smaller neurons that are activated by relatively few inputs, thereby preserving information, whereas regions that are less densely packed have larger neurons that have more integrative functions. Here we present the numbers of cells and neurons for 742 discrete locations across the neocortex in a chimpanzee. Using isotropic fractionation and flow fractionation methods for cell and neuron counts, we estimate that neocortex of one hemisphere contains 9.5 billion cells and 3.7 billion neurons. Primary visual cortex occupies 35 cm(2) of surface, 10% of the total, and contains 737 million densely packed neurons, 20% of the total neurons contained within the hemisphere. Other areas of high neuron packing include secondary visual areas, somatosensory cortex, and prefrontal granular cortex. Areas of low levels of neuron packing density include motor and premotor cortex. These values reflect those obtained from more limited samples of cortex in humans and other primates.

Biosonar-inspired technology: goals, challenges and insights.

PubMed

Müller, Rolf; Kuc, Roman

2007-12-01

Bioinspired engineering based on biosonar systems in nature is reviewed and discussed in terms of the merits of different approaches and their results: biosonar systems are attractive technological paragons because of their capabilities, built-in task-specific knowledge, intelligent system integration and diversity. Insights from the diverse set of sensing tasks solved by bats are relevant to a wide range of application areas such as sonar, biomedical ultrasound, non-destructive testing, sensors for autonomous systems and wireless communication. Challenges in the design of bioinspired sonar systems are posed by transducer performance, actuation for sensor mobility, design, actuation and integration of beamforming baffle shapes, echo encoding for signal processing, estimation algorithms and their implementations, as well as system integration and feedback control. The discussed examples of experimental systems have capabilities that include localization and tracking using binaural and multiple-band hearing as well as self-generated dynamic cues, classification of small deterministic and large random targets, beamforming with bioinspired baffle shapes, neuromorphic spike processing, artifact rejection in sonar maps and passing range estimation. In future research, bioinspired engineering could capitalize on some of its strengths to serve as a model system for basic automation methodologies for the bioinspired engineering process.

Dietary intake assessment using integrated sensors and software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Junqing; Pepin, Eric; Johnson, Eric; Hazel, David; Teredesai, Ankur; Kristal, Alan; Mamishev, Alexander

2012-02-01

The area of dietary assessment is becoming increasingly important as obesity rates soar, but valid measurement of the food intake in free-living persons is extraordinarily challenging. Traditional paper-based dietary assessment methods have limitations due to bias, user burden and cost, and therefore improved methods are needed to address important hypotheses related to diet and health. In this paper, we will describe the progress of our mobile Diet Data Recorder System (DDRS), where an electronic device is used for objective measurement on dietary intake in real time and at moderate cost. The DDRS consists of (1) a mobile device that integrates a smartphone and an integrated laser package, (2) software on the smartphone for data collection and laser control, (3) an algorithm to process acquired data for food volume estimation, which is the largest source of error in calculating dietary intake, and (4) database and interface for data storage and management. The estimated food volume, together with direct entries of food questionnaires and voice recordings, could provide dietitians and nutritional epidemiologists with more complete food description and more accurate food portion sizes. In this paper, we will describe the system design of DDRS and initial results of dietary assessment.

Estimating urban trees and carbon stock potentials for mitigating climate change in Lagos: Case of Ikeja Government Reserved Area (GRA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, P. O.; Faderin, A.

2014-12-01

Urban trees are a component of the urban infrastructure which offers diverse services including environmental, aesthetic and economic. The accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere resulting from the indiscriminate distribution of human populations and urban activities with the unsustainable consumption of natural resources contributes to global environmental change especially in coastal cities like Lagos. Carbon stocks and sequestration by urban trees are increasingly recognized to play significant roles for mitigating climate change. This paper focuses on the estimation of carbon stock and sequestration through biomass estimation and quantification in Ikeja GRA, Lagos. Ikeja possesses a characteristic feature as a microcosm of Lagos due to the wide range of land uses. A canopy assessment of tree population was carried out using itree canopy software. A GPS survey was used to collect an inventory of all trees showing their location, spatial distribution and other attributes. The analysis of the carbon storage and sequestration potential of both actual and potential tree planting sites involved biomass estimations from tree allometry equations. Trees were identified at species level and measurements of their dendrometric values were recorded and integrated into the GIS database to estimate biomass of trees and carbon storage. The trees in the study area were estimated to have a biomass of 441.9 mg and carbon storage of 221.395 kg/tree. By considering the potential tree planting sites the estimated carbon stored increased to 11,352.73 kg. Carbon sequestration value in the study area was found to be 1.6790 tonnes for the existing trees and 40.707 tonnes for the potential tree planting sites (PTPS). The estimation of carbon storage and sequestration values of trees are important incentives for carbon accounting/footprints and monitoring of climate change mitigation which has implications for evaluation and monitoring of urban ecosystem.

Integration of population mobility in the evaluation of air quality measures on local and regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhondt, S.; Beckx, C.; Degraeuwe, B.; Lefebvre, W.; Kochan, B.; Bellemans, T.; Int Panis, L.; Macharis, C.; Putman, K.

2012-11-01

By focussing on air pollutant concentration levels only, the variation in population mobility is not taken into account when assessing the exposure. Transportation policies have an impact on both concentration levels and mobility patterns. The impact of a fuel price increase policy on population exposure to elemental carbon (EC) was evaluated and compared to the base scenario (current situation), taking into account time-activity patterns - including time in commute. We assessed the effect on exposure of both the change in concentrations and whereabouts. The decrease in exposure due to the fuel price increase using residential information only was limited to areas near highways and urban centres. Integrating population movement, exposures to EC were higher and the decrease in exposure was no longer limited to areas near traffic hotspots. For inhabitants of urban areas, the exposure integrating time-activity patterns was more similar to the residential exposure, as they spent more time in their own neighbourhood. For people living further away from traffic hotspots, the estimated impact of the policy was higher than expected for residential exposure. These people profited both from the higher decrease in concentrations at their work/shop/leisure destinations in more urban areas and, as they have to travel longer, also had a larger gain from the high decrease in concentrations during transport. Therefore, the impact of changing concentrations is underestimated when using residential exposure only. These results show the importance of taking into activity-travel patterns when planning future actions.

Global assessment of urban and peri-urban agriculture: irrigated and rainfed croplands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thebo, A. L.; Drechsel, P.; Lambin, E. F.

2014-11-01

The role of urban agriculture in global food security is a topic of increasing discussion. Existing research on urban and peri-urban agriculture consists largely of case studies that frequently use disparate definitions of urban and peri-urban agriculture depending on the local context and study objectives. This lack of consistency makes quantification of the extent of this practice at the global scale difficult. This study instead integrates global data on croplands and urban extents using spatial overlay analysis to estimate the global area of urban and peri-urban irrigated and rainfed croplands. The global area of urban irrigated croplands was estimated at about 24 Mha (11.0 percent of all irrigated croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.48. The global area of urban rainfed croplands found was approximately 44 Mha (4.7 percent of all rainfed croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.03. These values were derived from the MIRCA2000 Maximum Monthly Cropped Area Grids for irrigated and rainfed crops and therefore their sum does not necessarily represent the total urban cropland area when the maximum extent of irrigated and rainfed croplands occurs in different months. Further analysis of croplands within 20 km of urban extents show that 60 and 35 percent of, respectively, all irrigated and rainfed croplands fall within this distance range.

Earth-Space Link Attenuation Estimation via Ground Radar Kdp

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolen, Steven M.; Benjamin, Andrew L.; Chandrasekar, V.

2003-01-01

A method of predicting attenuation on microwave Earth/spacecraft communication links, over wide areas and under various atmospheric conditions, has been developed. In the area around the ground station locations, a nearly horizontally aimed polarimetric S-band ground radar measures the specific differential phase (Kdp) along the Earth-space path. The specific attenuation along a path of interest is then computed by use of a theoretical model of the relationship between the measured S-band specific differential phase and the specific attenuation at the frequency to be used on the communication link. The model includes effects of rain, wet ice, and other forms of precipitation. The attenuation on the path of interest is then computed by integrating the specific attenuation over the length of the path. This method can be used to determine statistics of signal degradation on Earth/spacecraft communication links. It can also be used to obtain real-time estimates of attenuation along multiple Earth/spacecraft links that are parts of a communication network operating within the radar coverage area, thereby enabling better management of the network through appropriate dynamic routing along the best combination of links.

The integration of geophysical and enhanced Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data into a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyte, Stephen P.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Major, Donald J.; Brown, Jesslyn F.

2015-01-01

Cheatgrass exhibits spatial and temporal phenological variability across the Great Basin as described by ecological models formed using remote sensing and other spatial data-sets. We developed a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model trained on 99 points that used three data-sets – latitude, elevation, and start of season time based on remote sensing input data – to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth (BOSG) in the northern Great Basin. The model was then applied to map the location and timing of cheatgrass spring growth for the entire area. The model was strong (R2 = 0.85) and predicted an average cheatgrass BOSG across the study area of 29 March–4 April. Of early cheatgrass BOSG areas, 65% occurred at elevations below 1452 m. The highest proportion of cheatgrass BOSG occurred between mid-April and late May. Predicted cheatgrass BOSG in this study matched well with previous Great Basin cheatgrass green-up studies.

Developing a GIS based integrated approach to flood management in Trinidad, West Indies.

PubMed

Ramlal, Bheshem; Baban, Serwan M J

2008-09-01

Trinidad and Tobago is plagued with a perennial flooding problem. The higher levels of rainfall in the wet season often lead to extensive flooding in the low-lying areas of the country. This has lead to significant damage to livestock, agricultural produce, homes and businesses particularly in the Caparo River Basin. Clearly, there is a need for developing flood mitigation and management strategies to manage flooding in the areas most affected. This paper utilizes geographic information systems to map the extent of the flooding, estimate soil loss due to erosion and estimate sediment loading in the rivers in the Caparo River Basin. In addition, the project required the development of a watershed management plan and a flood control plan. The results indicate that flooding was caused by several factors including clear cutting of vegetative cover, especially in areas of steep slopes that lead to sediment filled rivers and narrow waterways. Other factors include poor agricultural practices, and uncontrolled development in floodplains. Recommendations to manage floods in the Caparo River Basin have been provided.

A cost effective and operational methodology for wall to wall Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and carbon stocks estimation and mapping: Nepal REDD+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilani, H., Sr.; Ganguly, S.; Zhang, G.; Koju, U. A.; Murthy, M. S. R.; Nemani, R. R.; Manandhar, U.; Thapa, G. J.

2015-12-01

Nepal is a landlocked country with 39% forest cover of the total land area (147,181 km2). Under the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and implemented by the World Bank (WB), Nepal chosen as one of four countries best suitable for results-based payment system for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD and REDD+) scheme. At the national level Landsat based, from 1990 to 2000 the forest area has declined by 2%, i.e. by 1467 km2, whereas from 2000 to 2010 it has declined only by 0.12% i.e. 176 km2. A cost effective monitoring and evaluation system for REDD+ requires a balanced approach of remote sensing and ground measurements. This paper provides, for Nepal a cost effective and operational 30 m Above Ground Biomass (AGB) estimation and mapping methodology using freely available satellite data integrated with field inventory. Leaf Area Index (LAI) generated based on propose methodology by Ganguly et al. (2012) using Landsat-8 the OLI cloud free images. To generate tree canopy height map, a density scatter graph between the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) estimated maximum height and Landsat LAI nearest to the center coordinates of the GLAS shots show a moderate but significant exponential correlation (31.211*LAI0.4593, R2= 0.33, RMSE=13.25 m). From the field well distributed circular (750m2 and 500m2), 1124 field plots (0.001% representation of forest cover) measured which were used for estimation AGB (ton/ha) using Sharma et al. (1990) proposed equations for all tree species of Nepal. A satisfactory linear relationship (AGB = 8.7018*Hmax-101.24, R2=0.67, RMSE=7.2 ton/ha) achieved between maximum canopy height (Hmax) and AGB (ton/ha). This cost effective and operational methodology is replicable, over 5-10 years with minimum ground samples through integration of satellite images. Developed AGB used to produce optimum fuel wood scenarios using population and road accessibility datasets.

Statistical inference in comparing DInSAR and GPS data in fault areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barzaghi, R.; Borghi, A.; Kunzle, A.

2012-04-01

DInSAR and GPS data are nowadays currently used in geophysical investigation, e.g. for estimating slip rate over the fault plane in seismogenic areas. This analysis is usually done by mapping the surface deformation rates as estimated by GPS and DInSAR over the fault plane using suitable geophysical models (e.g. the Okada model). Usually, DInSAR vertical velocities and GPS horizontal velocities are used for getting an integrated slip estimate. However, it is sometimes critical to merge the two kinds of information since they may reflect a common undergoing geophysical signal plus different disturbing signals that are not related to the fault dynamic. In GPS and DInSAR data analysis, these artifacts are mainly connected to signal propagation in the atmosphere and to hydrological phenomena (e.g. variation in the water table). Thus, some coherence test between the two information must be carried out in order to properly merge the GPS and DInSAR velocities in the inversion procedure. To this aim, statistical tests have been studied to check for the compatibility of the two deformation rate estimates coming from GPS and DInSAR data analysis. This has been done according both to standard and Bayesian testing methodology. The effectiveness of the proposed inference methods has been checked with numerical simulations in the case of a normal fault. The fault structure is defined following the Pollino fault model and both GPS and DInSAR data are simulated according to real data acquired in this area.

Plan-provider integration, premiums, and quality in the Medicare Advantage market.

PubMed

Frakt, Austin B; Pizer, Steven D; Feldman, Roger

2013-12-01

To investigate how integration between Medicare Advantage plans and health care providers is related to plan premiums and quality ratings. We used public data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Area Resource File and private data from one large insurer. Premiums and quality ratings are from 2009 CMS administrative files and some control variables are historical. We estimated ordinary least-squares models for premiums and plan quality ratings, with state fixed effects and firm random effects. The key independent variable was an indicator of plan-provider integration. With the exception of Medigap premium data, all data were publicly available. We ascertained plan-provider integration through examination of plans' websites and governance documents. We found that integrated plan-providers charge higher premiums, controlling for quality. Such plans also have higher quality ratings. We found no evidence that integration is associated with more generous benefits. Current policy encourages plan-provider integration, although potential effects on health insurance products and markets are uncertain. Policy makers and regulators may want to closely monitor changes in premiums and quality after integration and consider whether quality improvement (if any) justifies premium increases (if they occur). © Health Research and Educational Trust.

A New, Integrated Approach to Army Operational Testing and Evaluation

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-11-04

simulation should be reviewed to determine if there are areas that may or could produce data to support OT. During the Validation Phase the operational...II must provide the data for a valid estimate of the system’s military utility, operational effectiveness and operational suitability (including...the necessity of planning to acquire supplementary data . This data may be derived by analysis or obtained in tests (contractor, development and/or

A generic open-source toolbox to help long term irrigation monitoring for integrated water management in semi-arid Mediterranean areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Michel; Gosset, Cindy; Oueslati, Ines; Calvez, Roger; Zribi, Mehrez; Lili Chabaane, Zohra

2016-04-01

In semi arid areas, irrigated plains are often the major consumer of water well beyond other water demands. Traditionally fed by surface water, irrigation has massively shifted to a more reliable resource: groundwater. This shift occurred in the late thirty years has also provoked an extension and intensification of irrigation, often translated into impressive groundwater table decreases. Integrated water management needs a systematic and robust way to estimate the water demands by the agricultural sector. We propose a generic toolbox based on the FAO-56 method and the Crop Coefficient/NDVI approach used in Remote Sensing. The toolbox can be separated in three main areas: 1) It facilitates the preparation of different input datasets: download, domain extraction, homogenization of formats, or spatial interpolation. 2) A collection of algorithms based on the analysis of NDVI time series is proposed: Separation of irrigated vs non-irrigated area, a simplified annual land cover classification, Crop Coefficient, Fraction Cover and Efficient Rainfall. 3) Synthesis against points or areas produces the output data at the desired spatial and temporal resolution for Integrated Water Modeling or data analysis and comparison. The toolbox has been used in order to build a WEAP21 model of the Merguellil basin in Tunisia for the period of 2000-2014. Different meteorological forcings were easily used and compared: WFDEI, AGRI4CAST, MED-CORDEX. A local rain gauges database was used to produce a daily rainfall gridded dataset. MODIS MOD13Q1 (16 days, 250m) data was used to produce the NDVI derived datasets (Kc, Fc, RainEff). Punctual evapotranspiration was compared to actual measurements obtained by flux towers on wheat and barley showing good agreements on a daily basis (r2=0.77). Finally, the comparison to monthly statistics of three irrigated commands was performed over 4 years. This late comparison showed a bad agreement which led us to suppose two things: First, the simple approach of (Evapotranspiration minus Efficient Rainfall) to estimate Irrigation at the monthly time step is not pertinent because only a subset of the irrigated commands is actually irrigated. Hence, a higher spatial resolution of remote sensing imagery is needed. Second, in this particular area, farmers have a different rationale about rainfall and irrigation water needs. Those two aspects need to be further investigated. The toolbox has proven to be an interesting tool to integrate different sources of data, efficiently process them and easily produce input data for the WEAP1 model on a long term range. Yet some new challenges have been raised.

Combining path integration and remembered landmarks when navigating without vision.

PubMed

Kalia, Amy A; Schrater, Paul R; Legge, Gordon E

2013-01-01

This study investigated the interaction between remembered landmark and path integration strategies for estimating current location when walking in an environment without vision. We asked whether observers navigating without vision only rely on path integration information to judge their location, or whether remembered landmarks also influence judgments. Participants estimated their location in a hallway after viewing a target (remembered landmark cue) and then walking blindfolded to the same or a conflicting location (path integration cue). We found that participants averaged remembered landmark and path integration information when they judged that both sources provided congruent information about location, which resulted in more precise estimates compared to estimates made with only path integration. In conclusion, humans integrate remembered landmarks and path integration in a gated fashion, dependent on the congruency of the information. Humans can flexibly combine information about remembered landmarks with path integration cues while navigating without visual information.

Combining Path Integration and Remembered Landmarks When Navigating without Vision

PubMed Central

Kalia, Amy A.; Schrater, Paul R.; Legge, Gordon E.

2013-01-01

This study investigated the interaction between remembered landmark and path integration strategies for estimating current location when walking in an environment without vision. We asked whether observers navigating without vision only rely on path integration information to judge their location, or whether remembered landmarks also influence judgments. Participants estimated their location in a hallway after viewing a target (remembered landmark cue) and then walking blindfolded to the same or a conflicting location (path integration cue). We found that participants averaged remembered landmark and path integration information when they judged that both sources provided congruent information about location, which resulted in more precise estimates compared to estimates made with only path integration. In conclusion, humans integrate remembered landmarks and path integration in a gated fashion, dependent on the congruency of the information. Humans can flexibly combine information about remembered landmarks with path integration cues while navigating without visual information. PMID:24039742

A Summary of NASA Related Contributions for the Remote Sensing of Evapotranspiration in Support of Water Management and Agriculture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toll, David; Doorn, Brad; Lawford, Rick; Anderson, Martha; Allen, Rick; Martin, Timothy; Wood, Eric; Ferguson, Craig

2010-01-01

The amount of evapotranspiration (ET) to the atmosphere can account for 60% or more of the water loss in many semi-arid locations, and can critically affect local economies tied to agriculture, recreation, hydroelectric power, ecosystems, and numerous other water-related areas. NASA supports many activities using satellite and Earth science data to more accurately and cost effectively estimate ET. NASA ET related work includes the research, development and application of techniques. The free and open access of NASA satellite data and products now permits a much wider application of ET mapping. Typically the NASA supported approaches ranges from large regional and continental ET mapping using MODIS (also with AIRS and CERES), GRACE (gravimetric water balance), geostationary (e.g., GOES and Meteosat for near continental sca|e), land surface modeling (i.e, Land Data Assimilation Systems) to fine scale mapping such as provided bvLandsatdata(<100 m). Usually satellite or airborne thermal imagery are used as input to an ET estimated surface energy balance based approach. There are currently several of these ET approaches under development and implementation including 'METRIC', 'SEBS', 'ALEXI/DisALEXI', etc.. One exception is an approach using GRACE satellite data that estimates the terrestrial water storage using gravimetric data over large areas and estimates ET indirectly. Also land surface modeling within the context of data assimilation and integration schemes provides the capability to integrate in situ, ancillary and satellite together to provide a spatially and synoptic estimates of ET also for use to provide for short-term ET predictions. We will summarize NASA related activities contributing to the improved estimation of ET for water management and agriculture with an emphasis on the Western U3.. This summary includes a description of ET projects in the Middle Rio Grande, Yakima, North Platte and other selected basins in the western US. We will also discuss plans to further address ET applications through working with the USDA and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to extend and evaluate western U.S. ET mapping to other parts of the U.S. and internationally.

Selenium exposure in subjects living in areas with high selenium concentrated drinking water: results of a French integrated exposure assessment survey.

PubMed

Emmanuelle, Barron; Virginie, Migeot; Fabienne, Séby; Isabelle, Ingrand; Martine, Potin-Gautier; Bernard, Legube; Sylvie, Rabouan

2012-04-01

Selenium is an essential element which can be toxic if ingested in excessive quantities. The main human exposure is food. In addition, intake may be boosted by consumption drinking water containing unusual high selenium concentration. We measured the individual selenium level of people exposed to selenium concentration in drinking water greater than the maximum recommended limit which is 10 μg/L. We carried out a prospective cohort study on 80 adults (40 exposed subjects i.e. living in the involved area and 40 non-exposed ones i.e. living elsewhere) in western France. We used three different approaches: (1) direct measurement of ingested selenium by the duplicate portion method, (2) dietary reconstitution with a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and (3) evaluation of the individual selenium status by measuring the selenium content in toenail clippings. Analyses were performed by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. The association between toenail selenium concentration and area of residence was analyzed using linear regression with repeated measurements. We estimated selenium intake from FFQ at 64±14 μg/day for exposed subjects as opposed to 52±14 μg/day for the non-exposed ones. On the basis of 305 duplicate diet samples, average intake was estimated at 64±26 μg/day for exposed subjects. Area of residence (p=0.0030) and smoking (p=0.0054) were independently associated with toenail selenium concentration. Whatever method used for estimating selenium intake, the selenium level in this studied area with high selenium concentrated drinking water is much lower than in seleniferous areas. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-Axis Attitude Estimation Using Rate-Integrating Gyroscopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis

2016-01-01

Traditionally, attitude estimation has been performed using a combination of external attitude sensors and internal three-axis gyroscopes. There are many studies of three-axis attitude estimation using gyros that read angular rates. Rate-integrating gyros measure integrated rates or angular displacements, but three-axis attitude estimation using these types of gyros has not been as fully investigated. This paper derives a Kalman filtering framework for attitude estimation using attitude sensors coupled with rate- integrating gyroscopes. In order to account for correlations introduced by using these gyros, the state vector must be augmented, compared with filters using traditional gyros that read angular rates. Two filters are derived in this paper. The first uses an augmented state-vector form that estimates attitude, gyro biases, and gyro angular displacements. The second ignores correlations, leading to a filter that estimates attitude and gyro biases only. Simulation comparisons are shown for both filters. The work presented in this paper focuses only on attitude estimation using rate-integrating gyros, but it can easily be extended to other applications such as inertial navigation, which estimates attitude and position.

Aerial population estimates of wild horses (Equus caballus) in the adobe town and salt wells creek herd management areas using an integrated simultaneous double-count and sightability bias correction technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lubow, Bruce C.; Ransom, Jason I.

2007-01-01

An aerial survey technique combining simultaneous double-count and sightability bias correction methodologies was used to estimate the population of wild horses inhabiting Adobe Town and Salt Wells Creek Herd Management Areas, Wyoming. Based on 5 surveys over 4 years, we conclude that the technique produced estimates consistent with the known number of horses removed between surveys and an annual population growth rate of 16.2 percent per year. Therefore, evidence from this series of surveys supports the validity of this survey method. Our results also indicate that the ability of aerial observers to see horse groups is very strongly dependent on skill of the individual observer, size of the horse group, and vegetation cover. It is also more modestly dependent on the ruggedness of the terrain and the position of the sun relative to the observer. We further conclude that censuses, or uncorrected raw counts, are inadequate estimates of population size for this herd. Such uncorrected counts were all undercounts in our trials, and varied in magnitude from year to year and observer to observer. As of April 2007, we estimate that the population of the Adobe Town /Salt Wells Creek complex is 906 horses with a 95 percent confidence interval ranging from 857 to 981 horses.

Energy efficiency analysis and implementation of AES on an FPGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenney, David

The Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) was developed by Joan Daemen and Vincent Rjimen and endorsed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology in 2001. It was designed to replace the aging Data Encryption Standard (DES) and be useful for a wide range of applications with varying throughput, area, power dissipation and energy consumption requirements. Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) are flexible and reconfigurable integrated circuits that are useful for many different applications including the implementation of AES. Though they are highly flexible, FPGAs are often less efficient than Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs); they tend to operate slower, take up more space and dissipate more power. There have been many FPGA AES implementations that focus on obtaining high throughput or low area usage, but very little research done in the area of low power or energy efficient FPGA based AES; in fact, it is rare for estimates on power dissipation to be made at all. This thesis presents a methodology to evaluate the energy efficiency of FPGA based AES designs and proposes a novel FPGA AES implementation which is highly flexible and energy efficient. The proposed methodology is implemented as part of a novel scripting tool, the AES Energy Analyzer, which is able to fully characterize the power dissipation and energy efficiency of FPGA based AES designs. Additionally, this thesis introduces a new FPGA power reduction technique called Opportunistic Combinational Operand Gating (OCOG) which is used in the proposed energy efficient implementation. The AES Energy Analyzer was able to estimate the power dissipation and energy efficiency of the proposed AES design during its most commonly performed operations. It was found that the proposed implementation consumes less energy per operation than any previous FPGA based AES implementations that included power estimations. Finally, the use of Opportunistic Combinational Operand Gating on an AES cipher was found to reduce its dynamic power consumption by up to 17% when compared to an identical design that did not employ the technique.

Sierra Nevada snowpack and runoff prediction integrating basin-wide wireless-sensor network data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Y.; Conklin, M. H.; Bales, R. C.; Zhang, Z.; Zheng, Z.; Glaser, S. D.

2016-12-01

We focus on characterizing snowpack and estimating runoff from snowmelt in high elevation area (>2100 m) in Sierra Nevada for daily (for use in, e.g. flood and hydropower forecasting), seasonal (supply prediction), and decadal (long-term planning) time scale. Here, basin-wide wireless-sensor network data (ARHO, http://glaser.berkeley.edu/wsn/) is integrated into the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and a case study of the American River basin is presented. In the American River basin, over 140 wireless sensors have been planted in 14 sites considering elevation gradient, slope, aspect, and vegetation density, which provides spatially distributed snow depth, temperature, solar radiation, and soil moisture from 2013. 800 m daily gridded dataset (PRISM) is used as the climate input for the PRMS. Model parameters are obtained from various sources (e.g., NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and NED) with a regionalization method and GIS analysis. We use a stepwise framework for a model calibration to improve model performance and localities of estimates. For this, entire basin is divided into 12 subbasins that include full natural flow measurements. The study period is between 1982 and 2014, which contains three major storm events and recent severe drought. Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) are initially compared with the water year 2014 ARHO observations. The overall results show reasonable agreements having the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) of 0.7, ranged from 0.3 to 0.86. However, the results indicate a tendency to underestimate the SWE in a high elevation area compared with ARHO observations, which is caused by the underestimated PRISM precipitation data. Precipitation at gauge-sparse regions (e.g., high elevation area), in general, cannot be well represented in gridded datasets. Streamflow estimates of the basin outlet have NS of 0.93, percent bias of 7.8%, and normalized root mean square error of 3.6% for the monthly time scale.

Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan - a data integration approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, T.; McAneney, K. J.; Chen, K.

2011-12-01

Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data - census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data - this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US 12.5 billion). Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like that presented here have implications for emergency management, the cost-benefit of mitigation efforts and land-use planning.

Geophysical Assessment of Groundwater Potential: A Case Study from Mian Channu Area, Pakistan.

PubMed

Hasan, Muhammad; Shang, Yanjun; Akhter, Gulraiz; Jin, Weijun

2017-11-17

An integrated study using geophysical method in combination with pumping tests and geochemical method was carried out to delineate groundwater potential zones in Mian Channu area of Pakistan. Vertical electrical soundings (VES) using Schlumberger configuration with maximum current electrode spacing (AB/2 = 200 m) were conducted at 50 stations and 10 pumping tests at borehole sites were performed in close proximity to 10 of the VES stations. The aim of this study is to establish a correlation between the hydraulic parameters obtained from geophysical method and pumping tests so that the aquifer potential can be estimated from the geoelectrical surface measurements where no pumping tests exist. The aquifer parameters, namely, transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity were estimated from Dar Zarrouyk parameters by interpreting the layer parameters such as true resistivities and thicknesses. Geoelectrical succession of five-layer strata (i.e., topsoil, clay, clay sand, sand, and sand gravel) with sand as a dominant lithology was found in the study area. Physicochemical parameters interpreted by World Health Organization and Food and Agriculture Organization were well correlated with the aquifer parameters obtained by geoelectrical method and pumping tests. The aquifer potential zones identified by modeled resistivity, Dar Zarrouk parameters, pumped aquifer parameters, and physicochemical parameters reveal that sand and gravel sand with high values of transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity are highly promising water bearing layers in northwest of the study area. Strong correlation between estimated and pumped aquifer parameters suggest that, in case of sparse well data, geophysical technique is useful to estimate the hydraulic potential of the aquifer with varying lithology. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Melillo, Jerry M; Lu, Xiaoliang; Kicklighter, David W; Reilly, John M; Cai, Yongxia; Sokolov, Andrei P

2016-03-01

Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

Estimation of water surface elevations for the Everglades, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palaseanu, Monica; Pearlstine, Leonard

2008-01-01

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of real-time water-level monitoring gages and modeling methods that provides scientists and managers with current (2000–present) online water surface and water depth information for the freshwater domain of the Greater Everglades. This integrated system presents data on a 400-m square grid to assist in (1) large-scale field operations; (2) integration of hydrologic and ecologic responses; (3) supporting biological and ecological assessment of the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP); and (4) assessing trophic-level responses to hydrodynamic changes in the Everglades.This paper investigates the radial basis function multiquadric method of interpolation to obtain a continuous freshwater surface across the entire Everglades using radio-transmitted data from a network of water-level gages managed by the US Geological Survey (USGS), the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), and the Everglades National Park (ENP). Since the hydrological connection is interrupted by canals and levees across the study area, boundary conditions were simulated by linearly interpolating along those features and integrating the results together with the data from marsh stations to obtain a continuous water surface through multiquadric interpolation. The absolute cross-validation errors greater than 5 cm correlate well with the local outliers and the minimum distance between the closest stations within 2000-m radius, but seem to be independent of vegetation or season.

Analysis of long-term climate change on per capita water demand in urban versus suburban areas in the Portland metropolitan area, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parandvash, G. Hossein; Chang, Heejun

2016-07-01

We investigated the impacts of long-term climate variability and change on per capita water demand in urban and suburban service areas that have different degrees of development density in the Portland metropolitan area, USA. Together with historical daily weather and water production data, socioeconomic data such as population and unemployment rate were used to estimate daily per capita water demand in the two service areas. The structural time series regression model results show that the sensitivity of per capita water demand to both weather and unemployment rate variables is higher in suburban areas than in urban areas. This is associated with relatively higher proportional demand by the residential sector in the suburban area. The estimated coefficients of the historical demand model were used to project the mid-21st century (2035-2064) per capita water demand under three climate change scenarios that represent high (HadGEM2-ES), medium (MIROC5), and low (GFDL) climate changes. Without climate adaptation, compared to the historical period between 1983 and 2012, per capita water demand is projected to increase by 10.6% in the 2035-2064 period under the HadGEM2-ES in suburban areas, while per capita demand is projected to increase by 4.8% under the same scenario in urban areas. Our findings have implications for future urban water resource management and land use planning in the context of climate variability and change. A tight integration between water resource management and urban planning is needed for preparing for climate adaptation in municipal water planning and management.

Integration, Validation, and Application of a PV Snow Coverage Model in SAM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryberg, David; Freeman, Janine

2015-09-01

Due to the increasing deployment of PV systems in snowy climates, there is significant interest in a method capable of estimating PV losses resulting from snow coverage that has been verified for a wide variety of system designs and locations. A scattering of independent snow coverage models have been developed over the last 15 years; however, there has been very little effort spent on verifying these models beyond the system design and location on which they were based. Moreover, none of the major PV modeling software products have incorporated any of these models into their workflow. In response to thismore » deficiency, we have integrated the methodology of the snow model developed in the paper by Marion et al. [1] into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM). In this work we describe how the snow model is implemented in SAM and discuss our demonstration of the model's effectiveness at reducing error in annual estimations for two PV arrays. Following this, we use this new functionality in conjunction with a long term historical dataset to estimate average snow losses across the United States for a typical PV system design. The open availability of the snow loss estimation capability in SAM to the PV modeling community, coupled with our results of the nation-wide study, will better equip the industry to accurately estimate PV energy production in areas affected by snowfall.« less

Estimation of Fine Particulate Matter in Taipei Using Landuse Regression and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Methods

PubMed Central

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming

2011-01-01

Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005–2007. PMID:21776223

Estimation of fine particulate matter in Taipei using landuse regression and bayesian maximum entropy methods.

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming

2011-06-01

Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005-2007.

Indicators of hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological integrity for estimating potential loss of ecosystem services from wetlands on domesticated landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creed, I. F.; Aldred, D.; Spargo, A.; Bayley, S.

2012-12-01

Wetlands are being lost at an alarming rate in the prairie pothole landscape of North America. The full consequence of this loss is not fully understood or recognized due to (1) inadequate or incomplete wetland inventories (with mapping emphasizing permanent and not ephemeral wetlands, and only capturing "easy to observe" wetland area defined by open water and not the true dynamic wetland extent defined by saturated soils), and (2) lack of appropriate theoretical frameworks to assess the functions and benefits of these wetlands. We present a theoretical framework that integrates indicators to estimate functions and benefits of wetland integrity in central Alberta. We establish indicators using the principles that are representative of the dominant processes operating on the landscape, are simple and are scalable. While some of these indicators may be widely recognized, their implementation is often not comprehensive or complete. First, we develop an automated method for fine scale mapping of permanent and ephemeral wetlands from a fusion of high-resolution elevation data and aerial photography. Second, we estimate historic wetland loss over the past 50 years during which intensive domestication of the landscape occurred by modeling the distribution of wetlands in an undisturbed landscape using area-frequency power functions and calculating the difference in the actual wetland inventory. Third, we define relative wetland assessment units using cluster analysis of hydrological and ecological variables, including climate, geology, topography, soils and land use/land covers. Fourth, for each assessment unit we define indicators of functions and benefits of aquatic ecosystem services including water storage (surface and subsurface), phosphorus retention, nitrate removal, sediment retention, ecological health/biodiversity and human use, and then use practical strategies rooted in the fusion of digital terrain analysis and remote sensing techniques to measure and monitor these indicators over the past years. For a time series of wetlands loss we derive these indicators of functions and benefits to estimate changes in the provision of specific aquatic ecosystem services on the landscape. Last, we develop formulae for integrating these indicators to determine whether a specific wetland or wetland complex should be prioritized for conservation, exemplifying potential trade-offs among ecosystem services in setting conservation targets on this wetland dominated landscapes. The proposed theoretical framework evolved from close collaboration between scientists and resource managers, and will inform those engaged in developing wetland policies for a broad range of jurisdictions.

Application of Statistical Methods of Rain Rate Estimation to Data From The TRMM Precipitation Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meneghini, R.; Jones, J. A.; Iguchi, T.; Okamoto, K.; Liao, L.; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The TRMM Precipitation Radar is well suited to statistical methods in that the measurements over any given region are sparsely sampled in time. Moreover, the instantaneous rain rate estimates are often of limited accuracy at high rain rates because of attenuation effects and at light rain rates because of receiver sensitivity. For the estimation of the time-averaged rain characteristics over an area both errors are relevant. By enlarging the space-time region over which the data are collected, the sampling error can be reduced. However. the bias and distortion of the estimated rain distribution generally will remain if estimates at the high and low rain rates are not corrected. In this paper we use the TRMM PR data to investigate the behavior of 2 statistical methods the purpose of which is to estimate the rain rate over large space-time domains. Examination of large-scale rain characteristics provides a useful starting point. The high correlation between the mean and standard deviation of rain rate implies that the conditional distribution of this quantity can be approximated by a one-parameter distribution. This property is used to explore the behavior of the area-time-integral (ATI) methods where fractional area above a threshold is related to the mean rain rate. In the usual application of the ATI method a correlation is established between these quantities. However, if a particular form of the rain rate distribution is assumed and if the ratio of the mean to standard deviation is known, then not only the mean but the full distribution can be extracted from a measurement of fractional area above a threshold. The second method is an extension of this idea where the distribution is estimated from data over a range of rain rates chosen in an intermediate range where the effects of attenuation and poor sensitivity can be neglected. The advantage of estimating the distribution itself rather than the mean value is that it yields the fraction of rain contributed by the light and heavy rain rates. This is useful in estimating the fraction of rainfall contributed by the rain rates that go undetected by the radar. The results at high rain rates provide a cross-check on the usual attenuation correction methods that are applied at the highest resolution of the instrument.

Flood extent and water level estimation from SAR using data-model integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajadi, O. A.; Meyer, F. J.

2017-12-01

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images have long been recognized as a valuable data source for flood mapping. Compared to other sources, SAR's weather and illumination independence and large area coverage at high spatial resolution supports reliable, frequent, and detailed observations of developing flood events. Accordingly, SAR has the potential to greatly aid in the near real-time monitoring of natural hazards, such as flood detection, if combined with automated image processing. This research works towards increasing the reliability and temporal sampling of SAR-derived flood hazard information by integrating information from multiple SAR sensors and SAR modalities (images and Interferometric SAR (InSAR) coherence) and by combining SAR-derived change detection information with hydrologic and hydraulic flood forecast models. First, the combination of multi-temporal SAR intensity images and coherence information for generating flood extent maps is introduced. The application of least-squares estimation integrates flood information from multiple SAR sensors, thus increasing the temporal sampling. SAR-based flood extent information will be combined with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to reduce false alarms and to estimate water depth and flood volume. The SAR-based flood extent map is assimilated into the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (Hec-RAS) model to aid in hydraulic model calibration. The developed technology is improving the accuracy of flood information by exploiting information from data and models. It also provides enhanced flood information to decision-makers supporting the response to flood extent and improving emergency relief efforts.

Estimation of water withdrawal and distribution, water use, and wastewater collection and return flow in Cumberland, Rhode Island, 1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horn, M.A.; Craft, P.A.; Bratton, Lisa

1994-01-01

Water-use data collected in Rhode Island by different State agencies or maintained by different public suppliers and wastewater- treatment facilities need to be integrated if these data are to be used in making water- resource management decisions. Water-use data for the town of Cumberland, a small area in northeastern Rhode Island, were compiled and integrated to provide an example of how the procedure could be applied. Integration and reliability assessment of water-use data could be facilitated if public suppliers, wastewater- treatment facilities, and State agencies used a number of standardized procedures for data collection and computer storage. The total surface water and ground water withdrawn in the town of Cumberland during 1988 is estimated to be 15.39 million gallons per day, of which 11.20 million gallons per day was exported to other towns. Water use in Cumberland included 2.51 million gallons per day for domestic use, 0.68 million gallons per day for industrial use, 0.27 million gallons per day for commercial use, and 0.73 million gallons per day for other use, most of which were unmetered use. Disposal of waste- water in Cumberland included 2.03 million gallons per day returned to the hydrologic system and 1.73 million gallons per day exported from Cumberland for wastewater treatment. Consumptive use during 1988 is estimated to be 0.43 million gallons per day.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-01

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.

Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

1995-01-01

Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee population.

Estimation of 1945 to 1957 food consumption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, D.M.; Bates, D.J.; Marsh, T.L.

This report details the methods used and the results of the study on the estimated historic levels of food consumption by individuals in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) study area from 1945--1957. This period includes the time of highest releases from Hanford and is the period for which data are being collected in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study. These estimates provide the food-consumption inputs for the HEDR database of individual diets. This database will be an input file in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Code (HEDRIC) computer model that will be used to calculate the radiation dose. Themore » report focuses on fresh milk, eggs, lettuce, and spinach. These foods were chosen because they have been found to be significant contributors to radiation dose based on the Technical Steering Panel dose decision level.« less

Testing an innovative framework for flood forecasting, monitoring and mapping in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

2017-04-01

Between May and June 2016, France was hit by severe floods, particularly in the Loire and Seine river basins. In this work, we use this case study to test an innovative framework for flood forecasting, mapping and monitoring. More in detail, the system integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. We explore in detail the performance of each component of the system, demonstrating the improvements in respect to stand-alone flood forecasting and monitoring systems. We show how the performances of the forecasting component can be refined using the real-time feedback from social media monitoring to identify which areas were flooded, to evaluate the flood intensity, and therefore to correct impact estimations. Moreover, we show how the integration with impact forecast and social media monitoring can improve the timeliness and efficiency of satellite based emergency mapping, and reduce the chances of missing areas where flooding is already happening. These results illustrate how the new integrated approach leads to a better and earlier decision making and a timely evaluation of impacts.

Estimating Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amante, C.; Mesick, S.

2017-12-01

Integrated bathymetric-topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) are representations of the Earth's solid surface and are fundamental to the modeling of coastal processes, including tsunami, storm surge, and sea-level rise inundation. Deviations in elevation values from the actual seabed or land surface constitute errors in DEMs, which originate from numerous sources, including: (i) the source elevation measurements (e.g., multibeam sonar, lidar), (ii) the interpolative gridding technique (e.g., spline, kriging) used to estimate elevations in areas unconstrained by source measurements, and (iii) the datum transformation used to convert bathymetric and topographic data to common vertical reference systems. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the errors from these sources are typically unknown, and the lack of knowledge regarding these errors represents the vertical uncertainty in the DEM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has developed DEMs for more than 200 coastal communities. This study presents a methodology developed at NOAA NCEI to derive accompanying uncertainty surfaces that estimate DEM errors at the individual cell-level. The development of high-resolution (1/9th arc-second), integrated bathymetric-topographic DEMs along the southwest coast of Florida serves as the case study for deriving uncertainty surfaces. The estimated uncertainty can then be propagated into the modeling of coastal processes that utilize DEMs. Incorporating the uncertainty produces more reliable modeling results, and in turn, better-informed coastal management decisions.

Mapping pan-Arctic CH4 emissions using an adjoint method by integrating process-based wetland and lake biogeochemical models and atmospheric CH4 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Z.; Zhuang, Q.; Henze, D. K.; Frankenberg, C.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Sweeney, C.; Turner, A. J.

2015-12-01

Understanding CH4 emissions from wetlands and lakes are critical for the estimation of Arctic carbon balance under fast warming climatic conditions. To date, our knowledge about these two CH4 sources is almost solely built on the upscaling of discontinuous measurements in limited areas to the whole region. Many studies indicated that, the controls of CH4 emissions from wetlands and lakes including soil moisture, lake morphology and substrate content and quality are notoriously heterogeneous, thus the accuracy of those simple estimates could be questionable. Here we apply a high spatial resolution atmospheric inverse model (nested-grid GEOS-Chem Adjoint) over the Arctic by integrating SCIAMACHY and NOAA/ESRL CH4 measurements to constrain the CH4 emissions estimated with process-based wetland and lake biogeochemical models. Our modeling experiments using different wetland CH4 emission schemes and satellite and surface measurements show that the total amount of CH4 emitted from the Arctic wetlands is well constrained, but the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions is sensitive to priors. For CH4 emissions from lakes, our high-resolution inversion shows that the models overestimate CH4 emissions in Alaskan costal lowlands and East Siberian lowlands. Our study also indicates that the precision and coverage of measurements need to be improved to achieve more accurate high-resolution estimates.

Regularized minimum I-divergence methods for the inverse blackbody radiation problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Kerkil; Lanterman, Aaron D.; Shin, Jaemin

2006-08-01

This paper proposes iterative methods for estimating the area temperature distribution of a blackbody from its total radiated power spectrum measurements. This is called the inverse blackbody radiation problem. This problem is inherently ill-posed due to the characteristics of the kernel in the underlying integral equation given by Planck's law. The functions involved in the problem are all non-negative. Csiszár's I-divergence is an information-theoretic discrepancy measure between two non-negative functions. We derive iterative methods for minimizing Csiszár's I-divergence between the measured power spectrum and the power spectrum arising from the estimate according to the integral equation. Due to the ill-posedness of the problem, unconstrained algorithms often produce poor estimates, especially when the measurements are corrupted by noise. To alleviate this difficulty, we apply regularization methods to our algorithms. Penalties based on Shannon's entropy, the L1-norm and Good's roughness are chosen to suppress the undesirable artefacts. When a penalty is applied, the pertinent optimization that needs to be performed at each iteration is no longer trivial. In particular, Good's roughness causes couplings between estimate components. To handle this issue, we adapt Green's one-step-late method. This choice is based on the important fact that our minimum I-divergence algorithms can be interpreted as asymptotic forms of certain expectation-maximization algorithms. The effectiveness of our methods is illustrated via various numerical experiments.

Nitrogen Source Inventory and Loading Tool: An integrated approach toward restoration of water-quality impaired karst springs.

PubMed

Eller, Kirstin T; Katz, Brian G

2017-07-01

Nitrogen (N) from anthropogenic sources has contaminated groundwater used as drinking water in addition to impairing water quality and ecosystem health of karst springs. The Nitrogen Source Inventory and Loading Tool (NSILT) was developed as an ArcGIS and spreadsheet-based approach that provides spatial estimates of current nitrogen (N) inputs to the land surface and loads to groundwater from nonpoint and point sources within the groundwater contributing area. The NSILT involves a three-step approach where local and regional land use practices and N sources are evaluated to: (1) estimate N input to the land surface, (2) quantify subsurface environmental attenuation, and (3) assess regional recharge to the aquifer. NSILT was used to assess nitrogen loading to groundwater in two karst spring areas in west-central Florida: Rainbow Springs (RS) and Kings Bay (KB). The karstic Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) is the source of water discharging to the springs in both areas. In the KB study area (predominantly urban land use), septic systems and urban fertilizers contribute 48% and 22%, respectively, of the estimated total annual N load to groundwater 294,400 kg-N/yr. In contrast for the RS study area (predominantly agricultural land use), livestock operations and crop fertilizers contribute 50% and 13%, respectively, of the estimated N load to groundwater. Using overall groundwater N loading rates for the KB and RS study areas, 4.4 and 3.3 kg N/ha, respectively, and spatial recharge rates, the calculated groundwater nitrate-N concentration (2.1 mg/L) agreed closely with the median nitrate-N concentration (1.7 mg/L) from groundwater samples in agricultural land use areas in the RS study area for the period 2010-2014. NSILT results provide critical information for prioritizing and designing restoration efforts for water-quality impaired springs and spring runs affected by multiple sources of nitrogen loading to groundwater. The calculated groundwater N concentration for the KB study area (1.45 mg/L) was approximately three times higher than the median N concentration (0.45 mg/L) for wells located in urban land use areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ruminant Brucellosis in the Kafr El Sheikh Governorate of the Nile Delta, Egypt: Prevalence of a Neglected Zoonosis

PubMed Central

Hegazy, Yamen M.; Moawad, Amgad; Osman, Salama; Ridler, Anne; Guitian, Javier

2011-01-01

Background Brucellosis is a neglected tropical zoonosis allegedly reemerging in Middle Eastern countries. Infected ruminants are the primary source of human infection; consequently, estimates of the frequency of ruminant brucellosis are useful elements for building effective control strategies. Unfortunately, these estimates are lacking in most Middle East countries including Egypt. Our objectives are to estimate the frequency of ruminant brucellosis and to describe its spatial distribution in Kafr El Sheikh Governorate, Nile Delta, Egypt. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a cross-sectional study in which 791 sheep, 383 goats, 188 cattle milk tanks and 173 buffalo milk tanks were randomly selected in 40 villages and tested for the presence of antibodies against Brucella spp. The seroprevalence among different species was estimated and visualized using choropleth maps. A spatial scanning method was used to identify areas with significantly higher proportions of seropositive flocks and milk tanks. We estimated that 12.2% of sheep and 11.3% of goats in the study area were seropositive against Brucella spp. and that 12.2% and 12% of cattle and buffalo milk tanks had antibodies against Brucella spp. The southern part of the governorate had the highest seroprevalence with significant spatial clustering of seropositive flocks in the proximity of its capital and around the main animal markets. Conclusions/ Significance Our study revealed that brucellosis is endemic at high levels in all ruminant species in the study area and questions the efficacy of the control measures in place. The high intensity of infection transmission among ruminants combined with high livestock and human density and widespread marketing of unpasteurized milk and dairy products may explain why Egypt has one of the highest rates of human brucellosis worldwide. An effective integrated human-animal brucellosis control strategy is urgently needed. If resources are not sufficient for nationwide implementation, high-risk areas could be prioritized. PMID:21264355

Ruminant brucellosis in the Kafr El Sheikh Governorate of the Nile Delta, Egypt: prevalence of a neglected zoonosis.

PubMed

Hegazy, Yamen M; Moawad, Amgad; Osman, Salama; Ridler, Anne; Guitian, Javier

2011-01-11

Brucellosis is a neglected tropical zoonosis allegedly reemerging in Middle Eastern countries. Infected ruminants are the primary source of human infection; consequently, estimates of the frequency of ruminant brucellosis are useful elements for building effective control strategies. Unfortunately, these estimates are lacking in most Middle East countries including Egypt. Our objectives are to estimate the frequency of ruminant brucellosis and to describe its spatial distribution in Kafr El Sheikh Governorate, Nile Delta, Egypt. We conducted a cross-sectional study in which 791 sheep, 383 goats, 188 cattle milk tanks and 173 buffalo milk tanks were randomly selected in 40 villages and tested for the presence of antibodies against Brucella spp. The seroprevalence among different species was estimated and visualized using choropleth maps. A spatial scanning method was used to identify areas with significantly higher proportions of seropositive flocks and milk tanks. We estimated that 12.2% of sheep and 11.3% of goats in the study area were seropositive against Brucella spp. and that 12.2% and 12% of cattle and buffalo milk tanks had antibodies against Brucella spp. The southern part of the governorate had the highest seroprevalence with significant spatial clustering of seropositive flocks in the proximity of its capital and around the main animal markets. Our study revealed that brucellosis is endemic at high levels in all ruminant species in the study area and questions the efficacy of the control measures in place. The high intensity of infection transmission among ruminants combined with high livestock and human density and widespread marketing of unpasteurized milk and dairy products may explain why Egypt has one of the highest rates of human brucellosis worldwide. An effective integrated human-animal brucellosis control strategy is urgently needed. If resources are not sufficient for nationwide implementation, high-risk areas could be prioritized.

Estimation of shallow ground-water recharge in the Great Lakes basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neff, B.P.; Piggott, A.R.; Sheets, R.A.

2006-01-01

This report presents the results of the first known integrated study of long-term average ground-water recharge to shallow aquifers (generally less than 100 feet deep) in the United States and Canada for the Great Lakes, upper St. Lawrence, and Ottawa River Basins. The approach used was consistent throughout the study area and allows direct comparison of recharge rates in disparate parts of the study area. Estimates of recharge are based on base-flow estimates for streams throughout the Great Lakes Basin and the assumption that base flow in a given stream is equal to the amount of shallow ground-water recharge to the surrounding watershed, minus losses to evapotranspiration. Base-flow estimates were developed throughout the study area using a single model based on an empirical relation between measured base-flow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations and the surficial-geologic materials, which consist of bedrock, coarse-textured deposits, fine-textured deposits, till, and organic matter, in the surrounding surface-water watershed. Model calibration was performed using base-flow index (BFI) estimates for 959 stations in the U.S. and Canada using a combined 28,784 years of daily streamflow record determined using the hydrograph-separation software program PART. Results are presented for watersheds represented by 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC, U.S.) and tertiary (Canada) watersheds. Recharge values were lowest (1.6-4.0 inches/year) in the eastern Lower Peninsula of Michigan; southwest of Green Bay, Wisconsin; in northwestern Ohio; and immediately south of the St. Lawrence River northeast of Lake Ontario. Recharge values were highest (12-16.8 inches/year) in snow shadow areas east and southeast of each Great Lake. Further studies of deep aquifer recharge and the temporal variability of recharge would be needed to gain a more complete understanding of ground-water recharge in the Great Lakes Basin.

Proceedings of the Workshop on Identification and Control of Flexible Space Structures, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G. (Editor)

1985-01-01

Identification and control of flexible space structures were studied. Exploration of the most advanced modeling estimation, identification and control methodologies to flexible space structures was discussed. The following general areas were discussed: space platforms, antennas, and flight experiments; control/structure interactions - modeling, integrated design and optimization, control and stabilization, and shape control; control technology; control of space stations; large antenna control, dynamics and control experiments, and control/structure interaction experiments.

Impacts of aerosol mitigation on Chinese rice photosynthesis: An integrated modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yue, X.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Aerosol pollution in China is significantly altering radiative transfer processes and is thereby potentially affecting rice photosynthesis. However, the response of rice photosynthesis to aerosol-induced radiative perturbations is still not well understood. Here, we employ an integrated process-based modeling approach to simulate changes in incoming radiation (RAD) and the diffuse radiation fraction (DF) with aerosol mitigation in China and their associated impacts on rice yields. Aerosol reduction has the positive effect of increasing RAD and the negative effect of decreasing DF on rice photosynthesis and yields. In rice production areas where the average RAD during the growing season is lower than 250 W m-2, aerosol reduction is beneficial for higher rice yields, whereas in areas with RAD>250 W m-2, aerosol mitigation causes yield declines due to the associated reduction in the DF, which decreases the light use efficiency. This response pattern and threshold are similar with observations, even through more data are needed in future investigation. As a net effect, rice yields were estimated to significantly increase by 0.8-2.6% with aerosol concentrations reductions from 20 to 100%, which is lower than the estimates obtained in earlier studies that only considered the effects of RAD. This finding suggests that both RAD and DF are important processes influencing rice yields and should be incorporated into future assessments of agricultural responses to variations in aerosol-induced radiation under climate change.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

A lightweight security scheme for wireless body area networks: design, energy evaluation and proposed microprocessor design.

PubMed

Selimis, Georgios; Huang, Li; Massé, Fabien; Tsekoura, Ioanna; Ashouei, Maryam; Catthoor, Francky; Huisken, Jos; Stuyt, Jan; Dolmans, Guido; Penders, Julien; De Groot, Harmke

2011-10-01

In order for wireless body area networks to meet widespread adoption, a number of security implications must be explored to promote and maintain fundamental medical ethical principles and social expectations. As a result, integration of security functionality to sensor nodes is required. Integrating security functionality to a wireless sensor node increases the size of the stored software program in program memory, the required time that the sensor's microprocessor needs to process the data and the wireless network traffic which is exchanged among sensors. This security overhead has dominant impact on the energy dissipation which is strongly related to the lifetime of the sensor, a critical aspect in wireless sensor network (WSN) technology. Strict definition of the security functionality, complete hardware model (microprocessor and radio), WBAN topology and the structure of the medium access control (MAC) frame are required for an accurate estimation of the energy that security introduces into the WBAN. In this work, we define a lightweight security scheme for WBAN, we estimate the additional energy consumption that the security scheme introduces to WBAN based on commercial available off-the-shelf hardware components (microprocessor and radio), the network topology and the MAC frame. Furthermore, we propose a new microcontroller design in order to reduce the energy consumption of the system. Experimental results and comparisons with other works are given.

Mapping paddy rice planting area in wheat-rice double-cropped areas through integration of Landsat-8 OLI, MODIS, and PALSAR images.

PubMed

Wang, Jie; Xiao, Xiangming; Qin, Yuanwei; Dong, Jinwei; Zhang, Geli; Kou, Weili; Jin, Cui; Zhou, Yuting; Zhang, Yao

2015-05-12

As farmland systems vary over space and time (season and year), accurate and updated maps of paddy rice are needed for studies of food security and environmental problems. We selected a wheat-rice double-cropped area from fragmented landscapes along the rural-urban complex (Jiangsu Province, China) and explored the potential utility of integrating time series optical images (Landsat-8, MODIS) and radar images (PALSAR) in mapping paddy rice planting areas. We first identified several main types of non-cropland land cover and then identified paddy rice fields by selecting pixels that were inundated only during paddy rice flooding periods. These key temporal windows were determined based on MODIS Land Surface Temperature and vegetation indices. The resultant paddy rice map was evaluated using regions of interest (ROIs) drawn from multiple high-resolution images, Google Earth, and in-situ cropland photos. The estimated overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient were 89.8% and 0.79, respectively. In comparison with the National Land Cover Data (China) from 2010, the resultant map better detected changes in the paddy rice fields and revealed more details about their distribution. These results demonstrate the efficacy of using images from multiple sources to generate paddy rice maps for two-crop rotation systems.

Height system unification based on the Fixed Geodetic Boundary Value Problem with limited availability of gravity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porz, Lucas; Grombein, Thomas; Seitz, Kurt; Heck, Bernhard; Wenzel, Friedemann

2017-04-01

Regional height reference systems are generally related to individual vertical datums defined by specific tide gauges. The discrepancies of these vertical datums with respect to a unified global datum cause height system biases that range in an order of 1-2 m at a global scale. One approach for unification of height systems relates to the solution of a Geodetic Boundary Value Problem (GBVP). In particular, the fixed GBVP, using gravity disturbances as boundary values, is solved at GNSS/leveling benchmarks, whereupon height datum offsets can be estimated by least squares adjustment. In spherical approximation, the solution of the fixed GBVP is obtained by Hotine's spherical integral formula. However, this method relies on the global availability of gravity data. In practice, gravity data of the necessary resolution and accuracy is not accessible globally. Thus, the integration is restricted to an area within the vicinity of the computation points. The resulting truncation error can reach several meters in height, making height system unification without further consideration of this effect unfeasible. This study analyzes methods for reducing the truncation error by combining terrestrial gravity data with satellite-based global geopotential models and by modifying the integral kernel in order to accelerate the convergence of the resulting potential. For this purpose, EGM2008-derived gravity functionals are used as pseudo-observations to be integrated numerically. Geopotential models of different spectral degrees are implemented using a remove-restore-scheme. Three types of modification are applied to the Hotine-kernel and the convergence of the resulting potential is analyzed. In a further step, the impact of these operations on the estimation of height datum offsets is investigated within a closed loop simulation. A minimum integration radius in combination with a specific modification of the Hotine-kernel is suggested in order to achieve sub-cm accuracy for the estimation of height datum offsets.

Estimation of exposure to atmospheric pollutants during pregnancy integrating space-time activity and indoor air levels: does it make a difference?

PubMed Central

Marion, OUIDIR; Lise, GIORGIS-ALLEMAND; Sarah, LYON-CAEN; Xavier, MORELLI; Claire, CRACOWSKI; Sabrina, PONTET; Isabelle, PIN; Johanna, LEPEULE; Valérie, SIROUX; Rémy, SLAMA

2016-01-01

Studies of air pollution effects during pregnancy generally only consider exposure in the outdoor air at the home address. We aimed to compare exposure models differing in their ability to account for the spatial resolution of pollutants, space-time activity and indoor air pollution levels. We recruited 40 pregnant women in the Grenoble urban area, France, who carried a Global Positioning System (GPS) during up to 3 weeks; in a subgroup, indoor measurements of fine particles (PM2.5) were conducted at home (n=9) and personal exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was assessed using passive air samplers (n=10). Outdoor concentrations of NO2, and PM2.5 were estimated from a dispersion model with a fine spatial resolution. Women spent on average 16 h per day at home. Considering only outdoor levels, for estimates at the home address, the correlation between the estimate using the nearest background air monitoring station and the estimate from the dispersion model was high (r=0.93) for PM2.5 and moderate (r=0.67) for NO2. The model incorporating clean GPS data was less correlated with the estimate relying on raw GPS data (r=0.77) than the model ignoring space-time activity (r=0.93). PM2.5 outdoor levels were not to moderately correlated with estimates from the model incorporating indoor measurements and space-time activity (r=−0.10 to 0.47), while NO2 personal levels were not correlated with outdoor levels (r=−0.42 to 0.03). In this urban area, accounting for space-time activity little influenced exposure estimates; in a subgroup of subjects (n=9), incorporating indoor pollution levels seemed to strongly modify them. PMID:26300245

Assessing the weather monitoring capabilities of cellular microwave link networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fencl, Martin; Vrzba, Miroslav; Rieckermann, Jörg; Bareš, Vojtěch

2016-04-01

Using of microwave links for rainfall monitoring was suggested already by (Atlas and Ulbrich, 1977). However, this technique attracted broader attention of scientific community only in the recent decade, with the extensive growth of cellular microwave link (CML) networks, which form the backbone of today's cellular telecommunication infrastructure. Several studies have already shown that CMLs can be conveniently used as weather sensors and have potential to provide near-ground path-integrated observations of rainfall but also humidity or fog. However, although research is still focusing on algorithms to improve the weather sensing capabilities (Fencl et al., 2015), it is not clear how to convince cellular operators to provide the power levels of their network. One step in this direction is to show in which regions or municipalities the networks are sufficiently dense to provide/develop good services. In this contribution we suggest a standardized approach to evaluate CML networks in terms of rainfall observation and to identify suitable regions for CML rainfall monitoring. We estimate precision of single CML based on its sensitivity to rainfall, i.e. as a function of frequency, polarization and path length. Capability of a network to capture rainfall spatial patterns is estimated from the CML coverage and path lengths considering that single CML provides path-integrated rain rates. We also search for suitable predictors for regions where no network topologies are available. We test our approach on several European networks and discuss the results. Our results show that CMLs are very dense in urban areas (> 1 CML/km2), but less in rural areas (< 0.02 CML/km2). We found a strong correlation between a population and CML network density (e.g. R2 = 0.97 in Czech Republic), thus population could be a simple proxy to identify suitable regions for CML weather monitoring. To enable a simple and efficient assessment of the CML monitoring potential for any region worldwide, we are currently integrating our approach into open source online tool. In summary, our results demonstrate that CML represent promising environmental observation network, suitable especially for urban rainfall monitoring. The developed approach integrated into an open source online tool can be conveniently used e.g. by local operators or authorities to evaluate the suitability of their region for CML weather monitoring and estimate the credible spatial-resolution of a CML weather monitoring product. Atlas, D. and Ulbrich, C. W. (1977) Path- and Area-Integrated Rainfall Measurement by Microwave Attenuation in the 1-3 cm Band. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 16(12), 1322-1331. Fencl, M., Rieckermann, J., Sýkora, P., Stránský, D., and Bareš, V. (2015) Commercial microwave links instead of rain gauges: fiction or reality? Water Science & Technology, 71(1), 31. Acknowledgements to Czech Science Foundation project No. 14-22978S and Czech Technical University in Prague project No. SGS15/050/OHK1/1T/11.

BME Estimation of Residential Exposure to Ambient PM10 and Ozone at Multiple Time Scales

PubMed Central

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Christakos, George; Jerrett, Michael

2009-01-01

Background Long-term human exposure to ambient pollutants can be an important contributing or etiologic factor of many chronic diseases. Spatiotemporal estimation (mapping) of long-term exposure at residential areas based on field observations recorded in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Air Quality System often suffer from missing data issues due to the scarce monitoring network across space and the inconsistent recording periods at different monitors. Objective We developed and compared two upscaling methods: UM1 (data aggregation followed by exposure estimation) and UM2 (exposure estimation followed by data aggregation) for the long-term PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) and ozone exposure estimations and applied them in multiple time scales to estimate PM and ozone exposures for the residential areas of the Health Effects of Air Pollution on Lupus (HEAPL) study. Method We used Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) analysis for the two upscaling methods. We performed spatiotemporal cross-validations at multiple time scales by UM1 and UM2 to assess the estimation accuracy across space and time. Results Compared with the kriging method, the integration of soft information by the BME method can effectively increase the estimation accuracy for both pollutants. The spatiotemporal distributions of estimation errors from UM1 and UM2 were similar. The cross-validation results indicated that UM2 is generally better than UM1 in exposure estimations at multiple time scales in terms of predictive accuracy and lack of bias. For yearly PM10 estimations, both approaches have comparable performance, but the implementation of UM1 is associated with much lower computation burden. Conclusion BME-based upscaling methods UM1 and UM2 can assimilate core and site-specific knowledge bases of different formats for long-term exposure estimation. This study shows that UM1 can perform reasonably well when the aggregation process does not alter the spatiotemporal structure of the original data set; otherwise, UM2 is preferable. PMID:19440491

Similarity regularized sparse group lasso for cup to disc ratio computation.

PubMed

Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Zhuo; Tao, Dacheng; Wong, Damon Wing Kee; Liu, Jiang; Baskaran, Mani; Aung, Tin; Wong, Tien Yin

2017-08-01

Automatic cup to disc ratio (CDR) computation from color fundus images has shown to be promising for glaucoma detection. Over the past decade, many algorithms have been proposed. In this paper, we first review the recent work in the area and then present a novel similarity-regularized sparse group lasso method for automated CDR estimation. The proposed method reconstructs the testing disc image based on a set of reference disc images by integrating the similarity between testing and the reference disc images with the sparse group lasso constraints. The reconstruction coefficients are then used to estimate the CDR of the testing image. The proposed method has been validated using 650 images with manually annotated CDRs. Experimental results show an average CDR error of 0.0616 and a correlation coefficient of 0.7, outperforming other methods. The areas under curve in the diagnostic test reach 0.843 and 0.837 when manual and automatically segmented discs are used respectively, better than other methods as well.

Parameterization and scaling of arctic ice conditions in the context of ice-atmospheric processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Steffen, K.; Heinrichs, J. F.; Key, J. R.; Maslanik, J. A.; Serreze, M. C.; Weaver, R. L.

1995-01-01

The goals of this project are to observe how the open water/thin ice fraction in a high-concentration ice pack responds to different short-period atmospheric forcings, and how this response is represented in different scales of observation. The objectives can be summarized as follows: determine the feasibility and accuracy of ice concentration and ice typing by ERS-1 SAR backscatter data, and whether SAR data might be used to calibrate concentration estimates from optical and massive-microwave sensors; investigate methods to integrate SAR data with other satellite data for turbulent heat flux parameterization at the ocean/atmosphere interface; determine how the development and evolution of open water/thin ice areas within the interior ice pack vary under different atmospheric synoptic regimes; compare how open-water/thin ice fractions estimated from large-area divergence measurements differ from fractions determined by summing localized openings in the pack; relate these questions of scale and process to methods of observation, modeling, and averaging over time and space.

Hydrological Relevant Parameters from Remote Sensing - Spatial Modelling Input and Validation Basis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochschild, V.

2012-12-01

This keynote paper will demonstrate how multisensoral remote sensing data is used as spatial input for mesoscale hydrological modeling as well as for sophisticated validation purposes. The tasks of Water Resources Management are subject as well as the role of remote sensing in regional catchment modeling. Parameters derived from remote sensing discussed in this presentation will be land cover, topographical information from digital elevation models, biophysical vegetation parameters, surface soil moisture, evapotranspiration estimations, lake level measurements, determination of snow covered area, lake ice cycles, soil erosion type, mass wasting monitoring, sealed area, flash flood estimation. The actual possibilities of recent satellite and airborne systems are discussed, as well as the data integration into GIS and hydrological modeling, scaling issues and quality assessment will be mentioned. The presentation will provide an overview of own research examples from Germany, Tibet and Africa (Ethiopia, South Africa) as well as other international research activities. Finally the paper gives an outlook on upcoming sensors and concludes the possibilities of remote sensing in hydrology.

A methodology using GIS, aerial photos and remote sensing for loss estimation and flood vulnerability analysis in the Supersano-Ruffano-Nociglia Graben, southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forte, F.; Strobl, R. O.; Pennetta, L.

2006-07-01

The impact of calamitous meteoric events and their interaction with the geological and geomorphological environment represent a current problem of the Supersano-Ruffano-Nociglia Graben in southern Italy. Indeed, severe floods take place on a frequent basis not only in autumn and winter, but in summer also. These calamities are not only triggered by exceptional events, but are also amplified by peculiar geological and morpho-structural characteristics of the Graben. Flooding often affects vast agricultural areas and consequently, water-scooping machines cannot remove the rainwater. These events cause warnings and emergency states, involving people as well as socio economic goods. This study represents an application of a vanguard technique for loss estimation and flood vulnerability analysis, integrating a geographic information system (GIS) with aerial photos and remote sensing methods. The analysis results clearly show that the Graben area is potentially at greatest flood vulnerability, while along the Horsts the flood vulnerability is lower.

Parameterization and scaling of Arctic ice conditions in the context of ice-atmosphere processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Heinrichs, J.; Steffen, K.; Maslanik, J. A.; Key, J.; Serreze, M. C.; Weaver, R. W.

1994-01-01

This report summarizes achievements during year three of our project to investigate the use of ERS-1 SAR data to study Arctic ice and ice/atmosphere processes. The project was granted a one year extension, and goals for the final year are outlined. The specific objects of the project are to determine how the development and evolution of open water/thin ice areas within the interior ice pack vary under different atmospheric synoptic regimes; compare how open water/thin ice fractions estimated from large-area divergence measurements differ from fractions determined by summing localized openings in the pack; relate these questions of scale and process to methods of observation, modeling, and averaging over time and space; determine whether SAR data might be used to calibrate ice concentration estimates from medium and low-rate bit sensors (AVHRR and DMSP-OLS) and the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I); and investigate methods to integrate SAR data for turbulent heat flux parametrization at the atmosphere interface with other satellite data.

Multisensory processing of naturalistic objects in motion: a high-density electrical mapping and source estimation study.

PubMed

Senkowski, Daniel; Saint-Amour, Dave; Kelly, Simon P; Foxe, John J

2007-07-01

In everyday life, we continuously and effortlessly integrate the multiple sensory inputs from objects in motion. For instance, the sound and the visual percept of vehicles in traffic provide us with complementary information about the location and motion of vehicles. Here, we used high-density electrical mapping and local auto-regressive average (LAURA) source estimation to study the integration of multisensory objects in motion as reflected in event-related potentials (ERPs). A randomized stream of naturalistic multisensory-audiovisual (AV), unisensory-auditory (A), and unisensory-visual (V) "splash" clips (i.e., a drop falling and hitting a water surface) was presented among non-naturalistic abstract motion stimuli. The visual clip onset preceded the "splash" onset by 100 ms for multisensory stimuli. For naturalistic objects early multisensory integration effects beginning 120-140 ms after sound onset were observed over posterior scalp, with distributed sources localized to occipital cortex, temporal lobule, insular, and medial frontal gyrus (MFG). These effects, together with longer latency interactions (210-250 and 300-350 ms) found in a widespread network of occipital, temporal, and frontal areas, suggest that naturalistic objects in motion are processed at multiple stages of multisensory integration. The pattern of integration effects differed considerably for non-naturalistic stimuli. Unlike naturalistic objects, no early interactions were found for non-naturalistic objects. The earliest integration effects for non-naturalistic stimuli were observed 210-250 ms after sound onset including large portions of the inferior parietal cortex (IPC). As such, there were clear differences in the cortical networks activated by multisensory motion stimuli as a consequence of the semantic relatedness (or lack thereof) of the constituent sensory elements.

Improved methods for estimating local terrestrial water dynamics from GRACE in the Northern High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, Wondwosen M.; Milewski, Adam M.

2017-12-01

Investigating terrestrial water cycle dynamics is vital for understanding the recent climatic variability and human impacts in the hydrologic cycle. In this study, a downscaling approach was developed and tested, to improve the applicability of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission for understanding local terrestrial water cycle dynamics in the Northern High Plains region. A non-parametric, artificial neural network (ANN)-based model, was utilized to downscale GRACE data by integrating it with hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture) derived from satellite and land surface model data. The downscaling model, constructed through calibration and sensitivity analysis, was used to estimate TWS anomaly for watersheds ranging from 5000 to 20,000 km2 in the study area. The downscaled water storage anomaly data were evaluated using water storage data derived from an (1) integrated hydrologic model, (2) land surface model (e.g. Noah), and (3) storage anomalies calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements. Results demonstrate the ANN predicts monthly TWS anomaly within the uncertainty (conservative error estimate = 34 mm) for most of the watersheds. Seasonal derived groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) from the ANN correlated well (r = ∼0.85) with GWSAs calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements for a watershed size as small as 6000 km2. ANN downscaled TWSA matches closely with Noah-based TWSA compared to standard GRACE extracted TWSA at a local scale. Moreover, the ANN-downscaled change in TWS replicated the water storage variability resulting from the combined effect of climatic and human impacts (e.g. abstraction). The implications of utilizing finer resolution GRACE data for improving local and regional water resources management decisions and applications are clear, particularly in areas lacking in-situ hydrologic monitoring networks.

Improving surface-subsurface water budgeting using high resolution satellite imagery applied on a brownfield.

PubMed

Dujardin, J; Batelaan, O; Canters, F; Boel, S; Anibas, C; Bronders, J

2011-01-15

The estimation of surface-subsurface water interactions is complex and highly variable in space and time. It is even more complex when it has to be estimated in urban areas, because of the complex patterns of the land-cover in these areas. In this research a modeling approach with integrated remote sensing analysis has been developed for estimating water fluxes in urban environments. The methodology was developed with the aim to simulate fluxes of contaminants from polluted sites. Groundwater pollution in urban environments is linked to patterns of land use and hence it is essential to characterize the land cover in a detail. An object-oriented classification approach applied on high-resolution satellite data has been adopted. To assign the image objects to one of the land-cover classes a multiple layer perceptron approach was adopted (Kappa of 0.86). Groundwater recharge has been simulated using the spatially distributed WetSpass model and the subsurface water flow using MODFLOW in order to identify and budget water fluxes. The developed methodology is applied to a brownfield case site in Vilvoorde, Brussels (Belgium). The obtained land use map has a strong impact on the groundwater recharge, resulting in a high spatial variability. Simulated groundwater fluxes from brownfield to the receiving River Zenne were independently verified by measurements and simulation of groundwater-surface water interaction based on thermal gradients in the river bed. It is concluded that in order to better quantify total fluxes of contaminants from brownfields in the groundwater, remote sensing imagery can be operationally integrated in a modeling procedure. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of Remote Sensing Data to Improve the Water and Soil Resource Management of Rwanda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csorba, Ádám; Bukombe, Benjamin; Naramabuye, Francois Xavier; Szegi, Tamás; Vekerdy, Zoltán; Michéli, Erika

2017-04-01

The Rwandan agriculture strongly relies in the dry seasons on the water stored in artificial reservoirs of various sizes for irrigation purposes. Furthermore, the success of irrigation depends on a wide range of soil properties which directly affect the moisture regime of the growing medium. By integrating remote sensing and auxiliary data the objectives of our study are to monitor the water level fluctuation in the reservoirs, estimate the volume of water available for irrigation and to combine this information with soil property maps to support the decision making for sustainable irrigation water management in a study area in Southern Rwanda. For water level and volume estimation a series of Sentinel-1 (product type: GRD, acquisition mode: IW, polarizations HH and VH) data were obtained covering the study area and spanning over a period of two years. To map the extent of water bodies the Radar-Based Water Body Mapping module of the Water Observation and Information System (WOIS) was used. High-resolution optical data (Sentinel-2) were used for validation in cloud-free periods. To estimate the volume changes in the reservoirs, we combined the information derived from the water body mapping procedure and digital elevation models. For sustainable irrigation water management, digital soil property maps were developed by the application of wide range of environmental covariates related to soil forming factors. To develop covariates which represent the land use a time series analysis of the 2 years of Sentinel-1 data was performed. As auxiliary soil data, the ISRIC-WISE harmonized soil profile database was used. The developed digital soil mapping approach is integrated into a new WOIS workflow.

Acoustic detection of ice crystals in Antarctic waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penrose, John D.; Conde, M.; Pauly, T. J.

1994-06-01

During the voyage of the RSV Aurora Australis to the region of Prydz Bay, Antarctica in January-March 1991, ice crystals were encountered at depths from the surface to 125-m in the western area of the bay. On two occasions, crystals were retrieved by netting, and echo sounder records have been used to infer additional regions of occurrence. Acoustic target strength estimates made on the ice crystal assemblies encountered show significant spatial variation, which may relate to crystal size and/or aggregation. Data from a suite of conductivity-temperature-depth casts have been used to map regions of the study area where in situ water temperatures fell below the computed freezing point. Such regions correlate well with those selected on the basis of echogram type and imply that ice crystals occurred at depth over large areas of the bay during the cruise period. The ice crystal distribution described is consistent with that expected from a plume of supercooled water emerging from under the Amery Ice Shelf and forming part of the general circulation of the bay. The magnitude of the supercooled water plume is greater than those reported previously in the Prydz Bay region. If misinterpreted as biota on echo sounder records, ice crystals could significantly bias biomass estimates based on echo integration in this and potentially other areas.

Quantifying large-scale historical formation of accommodation in the Mississippi Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Bernier, Julie C.; Kelso, Kyle W.; Barras, John A.

2010-01-01

Large volumes of new accommodation have formed within the Mississippi Delta plain since the mid-1950s in association with rapid conversion of coastal wetlands to open water. The three-dimensional aspects and processes responsible for accommodation formation were quantified by comparing surface elevations, water depths, and vertical displacements of stratigraphic contacts that were correlated between short sediment cores. Integration of data from remotely sensed images, sediment cores, and water-depth surveys at 10 geologically diverse areas in the delta plain provided a basis for estimating the total volume of accommodation formed by interior-wetland subsidence and subsequent erosion. Results indicate that at most of the study areas subsidence was a greater contributor than erosion to the formation of accommodation associated with wetland loss. Tens of millions of cubic meters of accommodation formed rapidly at each of the large open-water bodies that were formerly continuous interior delta-plain marsh. Together the individual study areas account for more than 440 × 106 × m3 of new accommodation that formed as holes in the Mississippi River delta-plain fabric between 1956 and 2004. This large volume provides an estimate of the new sediment that would be needed just at the study areas to restore the delta-plain wetlands to their pre-1956 areal extent and elevations.

Phenology as used for studies on sustainable management in tree-line areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielgolaski, Frans Emil

2014-05-01

Tree-line ecosystems are heavily impacted by changes in climate and land use, resulting in land abandonment and reforestation of formerly treeless areas, often with strong consequences for the society. An ongoing EU COST Action (SENSFOR, 21 countries) aims at integrating scientific results and methods related to biodiversity conservation and sustainable management of natural resources by such changes, and plan also to develop strategies for preserving ecosystem services, in sensitive mountain areas in Europe. In this work phenology is important as a good indicator on changes in the climate by using data e.g. on timing of bud break in spring at woody plants. The Action assesses the extent of contemporary and future environmental changes in European tree-line areas, and will estimate their resilience to changes, e.g. the survival of germinating new plant species at increased tree-line elevation.

Advanced simulation technology used to reduce accident rates through a better understanding of human behaviors and human perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manser, Michael P.; Hancock, Peter A.

1996-06-01

Human beings and technology have attained a mutually dependent and symbiotic relationship. It is easy to recognize how each depends on the other for survival. It is also easy to see how technology advances due to human activities. However, the role technology plays in advancing humankind is seldom examined. This presentation examines two research areas where the role of advanced visual simulation systems play an integral and essential role in understanding human perception and behavior. The ultimate goal of this research is the betterment of humankind through reduced accident and death rates in transportation environments. The first research area examined involved the estimation of time-to-contact. A high-fidelity wrap-around simulator (RAS) was used to examine people's ability to estimate time-to- contact. The ability of people to estimate the amount of time before an oncoming vehicle will collide with them is a necessary skill for avoiding collisions. A vehicle approached participants at one of three velocities, and while en route to the participant, the vehicle disappeared. The participants' task was to respond when they felt the accuracy of time-to-contact estimates and the practical applications of the result. The second area of research investigates the effects of various visual stimuli on underground transportation tunnel walls for the perception of vehicle speed. A RAS is paramount in creating visual patterns in peripheral vision. Flat-screen or front-screen simulators do not have this ability. Results are discussed in terms of speed perception and the application of these results to real world environments.

Integrated thermal infrared imaging and Structure-from-Motion photogrametry to map apparent temperature and radiant hydrothermal heat flux at Mammoth Mountain, CA USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Aaron; George Hilley,; Lewicki, Jennifer L.

2015-01-01

This work presents a method to create high-resolution (cm-scale) orthorectified and georeferenced maps of apparent surface temperature and radiant hydrothermal heat flux and estimate the radiant hydrothermal heat emission rate from a study area. A ground-based thermal infrared (TIR) camera was used to collect (1) a set of overlapping and offset visible imagery around the study area during the daytime and (2) time series of co-located visible and TIR imagery at one or more sites within the study area from pre-dawn to daytime. Daytime visible imagery was processed using the Structure-from-Motion photogrammetric method to create a digital elevation model onto which pre-dawn TIR imagery was orthorectified and georeferenced. Three-dimensional maps of apparent surface temperature and radiant hydrothermal heat flux were then visualized and analyzed from various computer platforms (e.g., Google Earth, ArcGIS). We demonstrate this method at the Mammoth Mountain fumarole area on Mammoth Mountain, CA. Time-averaged apparent surface temperatures and radiant hydrothermal heat fluxes were observed up to 73.7 oC and 450 W m-2, respectively, while the estimated radiant hydrothermal heat emission rate from the area was 1.54 kW. Results should provide a basis for monitoring potential volcanic unrest and mitigating hydrothermal heat-related hazards on the volcano.

Inter-Annual Variability of Burned Area in Brazil Based on a Synergistic use of Information Derived from MODIS and Landsat-TM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libonati, R.; Dacamara, C. C.; Setzer, A. W.; Morelli, F.

2014-12-01

A procedure is presented that allows using information from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to improve the quality of monthly burned area estimates over Brazil. The method integrates MODIS derived information from two sources; the NASA MCD64A1 Direct Broadcast Monthly Burned Area Product and INPE's Monthly Burned Area MODIS product (AQM-MODIS). The latter product relies on an algorithm that was specifically designed for ecosystems in Brazil, taking advantage of the ability of MIR reflectances to discriminate burned areas. Information from both MODIS products is incorporated by means of a linear regression model where an optimal estimate of the burned area is obtained as a linear combination of burned area estimates from MCD64A1 and AQM-MODIS. The linear regression model is calibrated using as optimal estimates values of burned area derived from Landsat TM during 2005 and 2006 over Jalapão, a region of Cerrado covering an area of 187 x 187 km2. Obtained values of coefficients for MCD64A1 and AQM-MODIS were 0.51 and 0.35, respectively and the root mean square error was 7.6 km2. Robustness of the model was checked by calibrating the model separately for 2005 and 2006 and cross-validating with 2006 and 2005; coefficients for 2005 (2006) were 0.46 (0.54) for MCD64A1 and 0.35 (0.35) for AQM-MODIS and the corresponding root mean square errors for 2006 (2005) were 7.8 (7.4) km2. The linear model was then applied to Brazil as well as to the six Brazilian main biomes, namely Cerrado, Amazônia, Caatinga, Pantanal, Mata Atlântica and Pampa. As to be expected the interannual variability based on the proposed synergistic use of MCD64A1, AQM-MODIS and Landsat Tm data for the period 2005-2010 presents marked differences with the corresponding amounts derived from MCD64A1 alone. For instance during the considered period, values (in 103 km2) from the proposed approach (from MCD64A1) are 399 (142), 232 (62), 559 (259), 274 (73), 219 (31) and 415 (251). Values obtained with the proposed approach may be viewed as an improved alternative to the currently available products over Brazil.

Integrated plumage colour variation in relation to body condition, reproductive investment and laying date in the collared flycatcher

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laczi, Miklós; Hegyi, Gergely; Herényi, Márton; Kiss, Dorottya; Markó, Gábor; Nagy, Gergely; Rosivall, Balázs; Szöllősi, Eszter; Török, János

2013-10-01

The possible integration of different sexual ornaments into a composite system, and especially the information content of such ornament complexes, is poorly investigated. Many bird species display complex plumage coloration, but whether this represents one integrated or several independent sexual traits can be unclear. Collared flycatchers ( Ficedula albicollis) display melanised and depigmented plumage areas, and the spectral features (brightness and UV chroma) of these are correlated with each other across the plumage. In a 5-year dataset of male and female plumage reflectance, we examined some of the potential information content of integrated, plumage-level colour attributes by estimating their relationships to previous and current year body condition, laying date and clutch size. Females were in better condition the year before they became darker pigmented, and males in better current year condition were also darker pigmented. Female pigment-based brightness was positively, while male structurally based brightness was negatively related to current laying date. Finally, the overall UV chroma of white plumage areas in males was positively associated with current clutch size. Our results show that higher degree of pigmentation is related to better condition, while the structural colour component is associated with some aspects of reproductive investment. These results highlight the possibility that correlated aspects of a multiple plumage ornamentation system may reflect together some aspects of individual quality, thereby functioning as a composite signal.

Rapid online language mapping with electrocorticography.

PubMed

Miller, Kai J; Abel, Taylor J; Hebb, Adam O; Ojemann, Jeffrey G

2011-05-01

Emerging research in evoked broadband electrocorticographic (ECoG) measurement from the cortical surface suggests that it might cleanly delineate the functional organization of cortex. The authors sought to demonstrate whether this could be done in a same-session, online manner to identify receptive and expressive language areas. The authors assessed the efficacy of simple integration of "χ-band" (76-200 Hz) change in the ECoG signal by implementing a simple band-pass filter to estimate broadband spectral change. Following a brief (less than 10-second) period to characterize baseline activity, χ-band activity was integrated while 7 epileptic patients with implanted ECoG electrodes performed a verb-generation task. While the patients were performing verb-generation or noun-reading tasks, cortical activation was consistently identified in primary mouth motor area, superior temporal gyrus, and Broca and Wernicke association areas. Maps were robust after a mean time of 47 seconds (using an "activation overlap" measure). Correlation with electrocortical stimulation was not complete and was stronger for noun reading than verb generation. Broadband ECoG changes can be captured online to identify eloquent cortex. This demonstrates the existence of a powerful new tool for functional mapping in the operative and chronic implant setting.

Integrating larval connectivity with local demography reveals regional dynamics of a marine metapopulation.

PubMed

Johnson, Darren W; Christie, Mark R; Pusack, Timothy J; Stallings, Christopher D; Hixon, Mark A

2018-06-01

Many ocean species exist within what are called marine metapopulations: networks of otherwise isolated local populations connected by the exchange of larval offspring. In order to manage these species as effectively as possible (e.g., by designing and implementing effective networks of marine protected areas), we must know how many offspring are produced within each local population (i.e., local demography), and where those offspring disperse (i.e., larval connectivity). Although there is much interest in estimating connectivity in the relatively simple sense of identifying the locations of spawning parents and their settling offspring, true measures of demographic connectivity that account for among-site variation in offspring production have been lacking. We combined detailed studies of local reproductive output and larval dispersal of a coral reef fish to quantify demographic connectivity within a regional metapopulation that included four widely spaced islands in the Bahamas. We present a new method for estimating demographic connectivity when the levels of dispersal among populations are inferred by the collection of genetically "tagged" offspring. We estimated that 13.3% of recruits returned to natal islands, on average (95% CI = 1.1-50.3%), that local retention was high on one of the islands (41%, 95% CI = 6.0-97.0%), and that larval connectivity was appreciable, even between islands 129 km apart (mean = 1.6%, 95% CI = 0.20-8.8%). Our results emphasize the importance of properly integrating measurements of production with measurements of connectivity. Had we not accounted for among-site variation in offspring production, our estimates of connectivity would have been inaccurate by a factor as much as 6.5. At a generational timescale, lifetime offspring production varied substantially (a fivefold difference among islands) and the importance of each island to long-term metapopulation growth was dictated by both larval production and connectivity. At the scale of our study (local populations inhabiting 5-ha reefs), the regional metapopulation could not grow without external input. However, an exploratory analysis simulating a network of four marine protected areas suggested that reserves of >65 ha each would ensure persistence of this network. Thus, integrating studies of larval connectivity and local demography hold promise for both managing and conserving marine metapopulations effectively. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Plan–Provider Integration, Premiums, and Quality in the Medicare Advantage Market

PubMed Central

Frakt, Austin B; Pizer, Steven D; Feldman, Roger

2013-01-01

Objective. To investigate how integration between Medicare Advantage plans and health care providers is related to plan premiums and quality ratings. Data Source. We used public data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Area Resource File and private data from one large insurer. Premiums and quality ratings are from 2009 CMS administrative files and some control variables are historical. Study Design. We estimated ordinary least-squares models for premiums and plan quality ratings, with state fixed effects and firm random effects. The key independent variable was an indicator of plan–provider integration. Data Collection. With the exception of Medigap premium data, all data were publicly available. We ascertained plan–provider integration through examination of plans’ websites and governance documents. Principal Findings. We found that integrated plan–providers charge higher premiums, controlling for quality. Such plans also have higher quality ratings. We found no evidence that integration is associated with more generous benefits. Conclusions. Current policy encourages plan–provider integration, although potential effects on health insurance products and markets are uncertain. Policy makers and regulators may want to closely monitor changes in premiums and quality after integration and consider whether quality improvement (if any) justifies premium increases (if they occur). PMID:23800017

Signal-to-noise ratio for the wide field-planetary camera of the Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zissa, D. E.

1984-01-01

Signal-to-noise ratios for the Wide Field Camera and Planetary Camera of the Space Telescope were calculated as a function of integration time. Models of the optical systems and CCD detector arrays were used with a 27th visual magnitude point source and a 25th visual magnitude per arc-sq. second extended source. A 23rd visual magnitude per arc-sq. second background was assumed. The models predicted signal-to-noise ratios of 10 within 4 hours for the point source centered on a signal pixel. Signal-to-noise ratios approaching 10 are estimated for approximately 0.25 x 0.25 arc-second areas within the extended source after 10 hours integration.

Preliminary study of TEC application in cooling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulaiman, A. C.; Amin, N. A. M.; Saidon, M. S.; Majid, M. S. A.; Rahman, M. T. A.; Kazim, M. N. F. M.

2017-10-01

Integration of thermoelectric cooling (TEC) within a space cooling system in the lecturer room is studied. The studied area (air conditioned surrounding) is encapsulated with wall, floor, roof, and glass window. TEC module is placed on the glass window. The prototype of the studied compartment is designed using cabin container. The type and number of TEC module are studied and the effects on the cooling performance are analyzed as it is assumed to be tested within an air conditioned lecturer room. The experimental and mathematical modeling of the cooling system developed. It is expected that the mathematical modeling derived from this study will be used to estimate the use of the number of TEC module to be integrated with air conditioner unit where possible.

NASA Land Information System (LIS) Water Availability to Support Reclamation ET Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toll, David; Arsenault, Kristi; Pinheiro, Ana; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Houser, Paul; Kumar, Sujay; Engman, Ted; Nigro, Joe; Triggs, Jonathan

2005-01-01

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation identified the remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET) as an important water flux for study and designated a test site in the Lower Colorado River basin. A consortium of groups will work together with the goal to develop more accurate and cost effective techniques using the enhanced spatial and temporal coverage afforded by remote sensing. ET is a critical water loss flux where improved estimation should lead to better management of Reclamation responsibilities. There are several areas where NASA satellite and modeling data may be useful to meet Reclamation's objectives for improved ET estimation. In this paper we outline one possible contribution to use NASA's data integration capability of the Land Information System (LIS) to provide a merger of observational (in situ and satellite) with physical process models to provide estimates of ET and other water availability outputs (e.g., runoff, soil moisture) retrospectively, in near real-time, and also providing short-term predictions.

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Chaumoître, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2017-01-01

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Solar power satellite system definition study. Part 2, volume 4: Microwave power transmission systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

A slotted waveguide planar array was established as the baseline design for the spaceborne transmitter antenna. Key aspects of efficient energy conversion at both ends of the power transfer link were analyzed and optimized alternate approaches in the areas of antenna and tube design are discussed. An integrated design concept was developed which meets design requirements, observes structural and thermal constraints, exhibits good performance and was developed in adequate depth to permit cost estimating at the subsystem/component level.

VoroMQA: Assessment of protein structure quality using interatomic contact areas.

PubMed

Olechnovič, Kliment; Venclovas, Česlovas

2017-06-01

In the absence of experimentally determined protein structure many biological questions can be addressed using computational structural models. However, the utility of protein structural models depends on their quality. Therefore, the estimation of the quality of predicted structures is an important problem. One of the approaches to this problem is the use of knowledge-based statistical potentials. Such methods typically rely on the statistics of distances and angles of residue-residue or atom-atom interactions collected from experimentally determined structures. Here, we present VoroMQA (Voronoi tessellation-based Model Quality Assessment), a new method for the estimation of protein structure quality. Our method combines the idea of statistical potentials with the use of interatomic contact areas instead of distances. Contact areas, derived using Voronoi tessellation of protein structure, are used to describe and seamlessly integrate both explicit interactions between protein atoms and implicit interactions of protein atoms with solvent. VoroMQA produces scores at atomic, residue, and global levels, all in the fixed range from 0 to 1. The method was tested on the CASP data and compared to several other single-model quality assessment methods. VoroMQA showed strong performance in the recognition of the native structure and in the structural model selection tests, thus demonstrating the efficacy of interatomic contact areas in estimating protein structure quality. The software implementation of VoroMQA is freely available as a standalone application and as a web server at http://bioinformatics.lt/software/voromqa. Proteins 2017; 85:1131-1145. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multi-host model and threshold of intermediate host Oncomelania snail density for eliminating schistosomiasis transmission in China.

PubMed

Zhou, Yi-Biao; Chen, Yue; Liang, Song; Song, Xiu-Xia; Chen, Geng-Xin; He, Zhong; Cai, Bin; Yihuo, Wu-Li; He, Zong-Gui; Jiang, Qing-Wu

2016-08-18

Schistosomiasis remains a serious public health issue in many tropical countries, with more than 700 million people at risk of infection. In China, a national integrated control strategy, aiming at blocking its transmission, has been carried out throughout endemic areas since 2005. A longitudinal study was conducted to determine the effects of different intervention measures on the transmission dynamics of S. japonicum in three study areas and the data were analyzed using a multi-host model. The multi-host model was also used to estimate the threshold of Oncomelania snail density for interrupting schistosomiasis transmission based on the longitudinal data as well as data from the national surveillance system for schistosomiasis. The data showed a continuous decline in the risk of human infection and the multi-host model fit the data well. The 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles, and the mean of estimated thresholds of Oncomelania snail density below which the schistosomiasis transmission cannot be sustained were 0.006, 0.009, 0.028 and 0.020 snails/0.11 m(2), respectively. The study results could help develop specific strategies of schistosomiasis control and elimination tailored to the local situation for each endemic area.

Estimating integrated variance in the presence of microstructure noise using linear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holý, Vladimír

2017-07-01

Using financial high-frequency data for estimation of integrated variance of asset prices is beneficial but with increasing number of observations so-called microstructure noise occurs. This noise can significantly bias the realized variance estimator. We propose a method for estimation of the integrated variance robust to microstructure noise as well as for testing the presence of the noise. Our method utilizes linear regression in which realized variances estimated from different data subsamples act as dependent variable while the number of observations act as explanatory variable. We compare proposed estimator with other methods on simulated data for several microstructure noise structures.

Snow Process Estimation Over the Extratropical Andes Using a Data Assimilation Framework Integrating MERRA Data and Landsat Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cortes, Gonzalo; Girotto, Manuela; Margulis, Steven

2016-01-01

A data assimilation framework was implemented with the objective of obtaining high resolution retrospective snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates over several Andean study basins. The framework integrates Landsat fractional snow covered area (fSCA) images, a land surface and snow depletion model, and the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis as a forcing data set. The outputs are SWE and fSCA fields (1985-2015) at a resolution of 90 m that are consistent with the observed depletion record. Verification using in-situ snow surveys showed significant improvements in the accuracy of the SWE estimates relative to forward model estimates, with increases in correlation (0.49-0.87) and reductions in root mean square error (0.316 m to 0.129 m) and mean error (-0.221 m to 0.009 m). A sensitivity analysis showed that the framework is robust to variations in physiography, fSCA data availability and a priori precipitation biases. Results from the application to the headwater basin of the Aconcagua River showed how the forward model versus the fSCA-conditioned estimate resulted in different quantifications of the relationship between runoff and SWE, and different correlation patterns between pixel-wise SWE and ENSO. The illustrative results confirm the influence that ENSO has on snow accumulation for Andean basins draining into the Pacific, with ENSO explaining approximately 25% of the variability in near-peak (1 September) SWE values. Our results show how the assimilation of fSCA data results in a significant improvement upon MERRA-forced modeled SWE estimates, further increasing the utility of the MERRA data for high-resolution snow modeling applications.

Infant mortality in South Africa - distribution, associations and policy implications, 2007: an ecological spatial analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Many sub-Saharan countries are confronted with persistently high levels of infant mortality because of the impact of a range of biological and social determinants. In particular, infant mortality has increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The geographic distribution of health problems and their relationship to potential risk factors can be invaluable for cost effective intervention planning. The objective of this paper is to determine and map the spatial nature of infant mortality in South Africa at a sub district level in order to inform policy intervention. In particular, the paper identifies and maps high risk clusters of infant mortality, as well as examines the impact of a range of determinants on infant mortality. A Bayesian approach is used to quantify the spatial risk of infant mortality, as well as significant associations (given spatial correlation between neighbouring areas) between infant mortality and a range of determinants. The most attributable determinants in each sub-district are calculated based on a combination of prevalence and model risk factor coefficient estimates. This integrated small area approach can be adapted and applied in other high burden settings to assist intervention planning and targeting. Results Infant mortality remains high in South Africa with seemingly little reduction since previous estimates in the early 2000's. Results showed marked geographical differences in infant mortality risk between provinces as well as within provinces as well as significantly higher risk in specific sub-districts and provinces. A number of determinants were found to have a significant adverse influence on infant mortality at the sub-district level. Following multivariable adjustment increasing maternal mortality, antenatal HIV prevalence, previous sibling mortality and male infant gender remained significantly associated with increased infant mortality risk. Of these antenatal HIV sero-prevalence, previous sibling mortality and maternal mortality were found to be the most attributable respectively. Conclusions This study demonstrates the usefulness of advanced spatial analysis to both quantify excess infant mortality risk at the lowest administrative unit, as well as the use of Bayesian modelling to quantify determinant significance given spatial correlation. The "novel" integration of determinant prevalence at the sub-district and coefficient estimates to estimate attributable fractions further elucidates the "high impact" factors in particular areas and has considerable potential to be applied in other locations. The usefulness of the paper, therefore, not only suggests where to intervene geographically, but also what specific interventions policy makers should prioritize in order to reduce the infant mortality burden in specific administration areas. PMID:22093084

The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Dasymetric high resolution population distribution estimates for improved decision making, with a case study of sea-level rise vulnerability in Boca Raton, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, Hannes Moritz

Planners and managers often rely on coarse population distribution data from the census for addressing various social, economic, and environmental problems. In the analysis of physical vulnerabilities to sea-level rise, census units such as blocks or block groups are coarse relative to the required decision-making application. This study explores the benefits offered from integrating image classification and dasymetric mapping at the household level to provide detailed small area population estimates at the scale of residential buildings. In a case study of Boca Raton, FL, a sea-level rise inundation grid based on mapping methods by NOAA is overlaid on the highly detailed population distribution data to identify vulnerable residences and estimate population displacement. The enhanced spatial detail offered through this method has the potential to better guide targeted strategies for future development, mitigation, and adaptation efforts.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

Estimation of 1945 to 1957 food consumption. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project: Draft

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, D.M.; Bates, D.J.; Marsh, T.L.

This report details the methods used and the results of the study on the estimated historic levels of food consumption by individuals in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) study area from 1945--1957. This period includes the time of highest releases from Hanford and is the period for which data are being collected in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study. These estimates provide the food-consumption inputs for the HEDR database of individual diets. This database will be an input file in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Code (HEDRIC) computer model that will be used to calculate the radiation dose. Themore » report focuses on fresh milk, eggs, lettuce, and spinach. These foods were chosen because they have been found to be significant contributors to radiation dose based on the Technical Steering Panel dose decision level.« less

Estimation of 1945 to 1957 food consumption. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, D.M.; Bates, D.J.; Marsh, T.L.

This report details the methods used and the results of the study on the estimated historic levels of food consumption by individuals in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) study area from 1945--1957. This period includes the time of highest releases from Hanford and is the period for which data are being collected in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study. These estimates provide the food-consumption inputs for the HEDR database of individual diets. This database will be an input file in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Code (HEDRIC) computer model that will be used to calculate the radiation dose. Themore » report focuses on fresh milk, eggs, lettuce, and spinach. These foods were chosen because they have been found to be significant contributors to radiation dose based on the Technical Steering Panel dose decision level.« less

Concepts: Integrating population survey data from different spatial scales, sampling methods, and species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert; Delampady, Mohan; Dey, Soumen; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Karanth, K. Ullas; Nichols, James D.

2017-01-01

Conservationists and managers are continually under pressure from the public, the media, and political policy makers to provide “tiger numbers,” not just for protected reserves, but also for large spatial scales, including landscapes, regions, states, nations, and even globally. Estimating the abundance of tigers within relatively small areas (e.g., protected reserves) is becoming increasingly tractable (see Chaps. 9 and 10), but doing so for larger spatial scales still presents a formidable challenge. Those who seek “tiger numbers” are often not satisfied by estimates of tiger occupancy alone, regardless of the reliability of the estimates (see Chaps. 4 and 5). As a result, wherever tiger conservation efforts are underway, either substantially or nominally, scientists and managers are frequently asked to provide putative large-scale tiger numbers based either on a total count or on an extrapolation of some sort (see Chaps. 1 and 2).

Sample project: establishing a global forest monitoring capability using multi-resolution and multi-temporal remotely sensed data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Matt; Stehman, Steve; Loveland, Tom; Vogelmann, Jim; Cochrane, Mark

2009-01-01

Quantifying rates of forest-cover change is important for improved carbon accounting and climate change modeling, management of forestry and agricultural resources, and biodiversity monitoring. A practical solution to examining trends in forest cover change at global scale is to employ remotely sensed data. Satellite-based monitoring of forest cover can be implemented consistently across large regions at annual and inter-annual intervals. This research extends previous research on global forest-cover dynamics and land-cover change estimation to establish a robust, operational forest monitoring and assessment system. The approach integrates both MODIS and Landsat data to provide timely biome-scale forest change estimation. This is achieved by using annual MODIS change indicator maps to stratify biomes into low, medium and high change categories. Landsat image pairs can then be sampled within these strata and analyzed for estimating area of forest cleared.

Validation of High Resolution Orbital Precipitation Over Upper Mahanadi River Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, A. K.; Pandey, A.

2016-12-01

Precipitation is one of the most important component of hydrologic cycle and used for various applications i.e. hydrological modeling, structure design to water management policy. Satellite based precipitation, radar rainfall and rain-gauge networks are supporting to each other, in relation to their spatial coverage and ability of observing precipitation. In the absence of rainfall data, satellite precipitation products can be used in the developing countries and over complex terrain where precipitation observations are either sparse or not available. However, satellite precipitation estimates are affected by different errors (AghaKouchak, et al., 2012.). Therefore, ground validation of satellite precipitation estimates is essential. In this study, the upper Mahanadi River Basin (A Part of Central India), has been selected for evaluation of the TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) and IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM) satellite Based Precipitation Products for the period of April 2014 - December 2015. The TMPA (3B42V7) and IMERG (late run) precipitation estimates were evaluated using statistical, contingency table and volumetric method for available 112 rain gauge stations in the study area. Results indicated that, both IMERG and TMPA precipitation overestimated the daily precipitation. The results also revealed that IMERG precipitation estimates provide better accuracy than TMPA precipitation estimates for very light rain (0.1-2.5 mm day-1), light rain (2.5-7.5 mm day-1), moderate rain (7.5-35.5 mm day-1), heavy rain (35.5-64.5 mm day-1) and very heavy rain (>64.5 mm day-1). Although, the detection capability of daily TMPA precipitation performed better in heavy rain. The results showed a good correlation (as high as 0.84) and poor correlation (as low as 0.012) with GPM satellite data over the most parts of the study area. The analyses suggest that, there is a need for improvement in precipitation estimation algorithm and accuracy verification against raingauge precipitation measurement to capture the rain events reliably in the study area.

An Integrated, Observation-based System to Monitor Aboveground Forest Carbon Dynamics in Washington, Oregon, and California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, R. E.; Hughes, J.; Neeti, N.; Yang, Z.; Gregory, M.; Roberts, H.; Kane, V. R.; Powell, S. L.; Ohmann, J.

2016-12-01

Because carbon pools and fluxes on wooded landscapes are constrained by their type, age and health, understanding the causes and consequences of carbon change requires frequent observation of forest condition and of disturbance, mortality, and growth processes. As part of USDA and NASA funded efforts, we built empirical monitoring system that integrates time-series Landsat imagery, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data, small-footprint lidar data, and aerial photos to characterize key carbon dynamics in forested ecosystems of Washington, Oregon and California. Here we report yearly biomass estimates for every forested 30 by 30m pixel in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California from 1990 to 2010, including spatially explicit estimates of uncertainty in our yearly predictions. Total biomass at the ecoregion scale agrees well with estimates from FIA plot data alone, currently the only method for reliable monitoring in the forests of the region. Comparisons with estimates of biomass modeled from four small-footprint lidar acquisitions in overlapping portions of our study area show general patterns of agreement between the two types of estimation, but also reveal some disparities in spatial pattern potentially attributable to age and vegetation condition. Using machine-learning techniques based on both Landsat image time series and high resolution aerial photos, we then modeled the agent causing change in biomass for every change event in the region, and report the relative distribution of carbon loss attributable to natural disturbances (primarily fire and insect-related mortality) versus anthropogenic causes (forest management and development).

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Development of a Cost Estimation Process for Human Systems Integration Practitioners During the Analysis of Alternatives

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

processes. Novice estimators must often use of these complicated cost estimation tools (e.g., ACEIT , SEER-H, SEER-S, PRICE-H, PRICE-S, etc.) until...However, the thesis will leverage the processes embedded in cost estimation tools such as the Automated Cost Estimating Integration Tool ( ACEIT ) and the

Integrated Land-Use, Transportation and Environmental Modeling The Vermont Integrated Land-Use and Transportation Carbon Estimator

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The Vermont Integrated Land-Use and Transportation Carbon Estimator (VILTCE) project is part of a larger effort to develop environmental metrics related to travel, and to integrate these tools into a travel model under UVM TRC Signature Project No. 1...

Exploring the relationship between black hole accretion and star formation with blind mid-/far-infrared spectroscopic surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonato, M.; Negrello, M.; Cai, Z.-Y.; De Zotti, G.; Bressan, A.; Lapi, A.; Pozzi, F.; Gruppioni, C.; Danese, L.

2014-11-01

We present new estimates of redshift-dependent luminosity functions of IR lines detectable by SPICA/SAFARI (SPace InfraRed telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics/SpicA FAR infrared Instrument) and excited both by star formation and by AGN activity. The new estimates improve over previous work by using updated evolutionary models and dealing in a self-consistent way with emission of galaxies as a whole, including both the starburst and the AGN component. New relationships between line and AGN bolometric luminosity have been derived and those between line and IR luminosities of the starburst component have been updated. These ingredients were used to work out predictions for the source counts in 11 mid-/far-IR emission lines partially or entirely excited by AGN activity. We find that the statistics of the emission line detection of galaxies as a whole is mainly determined by the star formation rate, because of the rarity of bright AGNs. We also find that the slope of the line integral number counts is flatter than two implying that the number of detections at fixed observing time increases more by extending the survey area than by going deeper. We thus propose a wide spectroscopic survey of 1 h integration per field of view over an area of 5 deg2 to detect (at 5σ) ˜760 AGNs in [O IV]25.89 μm - the brightest AGN mid-infrared line - out to z ˜ 2. Pointed observations of strongly lensed or hyperluminous galaxies previously detected by large area surveys such as those by Herschel and by the South Pole Telescope can provide key information on the galaxy-AGN co-evolution out to higher redshifts.

The prevalence and incidence of systemic lupus erythematosus in children and adults: a population-based study in a mountain community in northern Italy.

PubMed

Tsioni, Vasiliki; Andreoli, Laura; Meini, Antonella; Frassi, Micol; Raffetti, Elena; Airò, Paolo; Allegri, Flavio; Donato, Francesco; Tincani, Angela

2015-01-01

To estimate prevalence and incidence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in paediatric and adult populations in Italy. The study was carried out in Valtrompia, a valley in northern Italy, where a relatively close community lives, in 2009-2012. The only referral centre for SLE in the area is the Rheumatology Unit of the University Hospital of Brescia. The ascertainment of SLE cases was performed through the integration of three sources: 1) hospital database; 2) database of the Rheumatology laboratory; 3) database of general practitioners and general paediatricians practicing in the area. Each patient was evaluated by a rheumatologist for confirmation of SLE classification based on the presence of at least 4 criteria according to the American College of Rheumatology. Forty-four SLE patients (39 females, 89%) were identified. The prevalence of SLE at 31st December 2012 was 39.2 (95% C.I. 28.5-52.6) cases per 100,000 individuals in all subjects, and 42.3 (30.5-57.2) and 15.3 (1.8-55.1) in adults and children, respectively. Nine new cases of SLE were diagnosed over the 4 years of the study period, with an annual incidence rate of 2.0 (0.9-3.8) per 100,000 individuals. This is the first study estimating the prevalence and incidence of SLE in Italy in both adult and paediatric population. Prevalence and incidence rates in line with those reported in other Mediterranean European countries. The accurate assessment of the SLE frequency is supported by the choice of a well-defined area, the integration of multiple data sources and the revision of each case by a rheumatologist.

Integrated Rapid Mapping of Neglected Tropical Diseases in Three States of South Sudan: Survey Findings and Treatment Needs

PubMed Central

Finn, Timothy P.; Stewart, Barclay T.; Reid, Heidi L.; Petty, Nora; Sabasio, Anthony; Oguttu, David; Lado, Mounir; Brooker, Simon J.; Kolaczinski, Jan H.

2012-01-01

Background Integrated rapid mapping to target interventions for schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) and lymphatic filariasis (LF) is ongoing in South Sudan. From May to September 2010, three states – Unity, Eastern Equatoria and Central Equatoria – were surveyed with the aim of identifying which administrative areas are eligible for mass drug administration (MDA) of preventive chemotherapy (PCT). Methods and Principal Findings Payams (third administrative tier) were surveyed for Schistosoma mansoni, S. haematobium and STH infections while counties (second administrative tier) were surveyed for LF. Overall, 12,742 children from 193 sites were tested for schistosome and STH infection and, at a subset of 50 sites, 3,980 adults were tested for LF. Either S. mansoni or S. haematobium or both species were endemic throughout Unity State and occurred in foci in Central and Eastern Equatoria. STH infection was endemic throughout Central Equatoria and the western counties of Eastern Equatoria, while LF was endemic over most of Central- and Eastern Equatoria, but only in selected foci in Unity. All areas identified as STH endemic were co-endemic for schistosomiasis and/or LF. Conclusions The distribution and prevalence of major NTDs, particularly schistosomiasis, varies considerably throughout South Sudan. Rapid mapping is therefore important in identifying (co)-endemic areas. The present survey established that across the three surveyed states between 1.2 and 1.4 million individuals are estimated to be eligible for regular MDA with PCT to treat STH and schistosomiasis, respectively, while approximately 1.3 million individuals residing in Central- and Eastern Equatoria are estimated to require MDA for LF. PMID:23285184

Crustal Stress and Strain Distribution in Sicily (Southern Italy) from Joint Analysis of Seismicity and Geodetic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Presti, D.; Neri, G.; Aloisi, M.; Cannavo, F.; Orecchio, B.; Palano, M.; Siligato, G.; Totaro, C.

2014-12-01

An updated database of earthquake focal mechanisms is compiled for the Sicilian region (southern Italy) and surrounding off-shore areas where the Nubia-Eurasia convergence coexists with the very-slow residual rollback of the Ionian subducting slab. High-quality solutions selected from literature and catalogs have been integrated with new solutions estimated in the present work using the Cut And Paste (CAP) waveform inversion method. In the CAP algorithm (Zhao and Helmberger, 1994; Zhu and Helmberger, 1996), each waveform is broken up into Pnl and surface wave segments, which are weighted differently during the inversion procedure. Integration of the new solutions with the ones selected from literature and official catalogs led us to collect a database consisting exclusively of waveform inversion data relative to earthquakes with minimum magnitude 2.6. The seismicity and focal mechanism distributions have been compared with crustal motion and strain data coming from GNSS analyses. For this purpose GNSS-based observations collected over the investigated area by episodic measurements (1994-2013) as well as continuous monitoring (since 2006) were processed by the GAMIT/GLOBK software packages (Herring et al., 2010) following the approach described in Palano et al. (2011). To adequately investigate the crustal deformation pattern, the estimated GNSS velocities were aligned to a fixed Eurasian reference frame. The good agreement found between seismic and geodetic information contributes to better define seismotectonic domains characterized by different kinematics. Moving from the available geophysical information and from an early application of FEM algorithms, we have also started to investigate stress/strain fields in the crust of the study area including depth dependence and relationships with rupture of the main seismogenic structures.

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study. Volume 2: Engineering analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The technical and economic feasibility of Satellite Solar Power Systems was studied with emphasis on the analysis and definition of an integrated strawman configuration concept, from which credible cost data could be estimated. Specifically, system concepts for each of the major subprogram areas were formulated, analyzed, and iterated to the degree necessary for establishing an overall, workable baseline system design. Cost data were estimated for the baseline and used to conduct economic analyses. The baseline concept selected was a 5-GW crystal silicon truss-type photovoltaic configuration, which represented the most mature concept available. The overall results and major findings, and the results of technical analyses performed during the final phase of the study efforts are reported.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.

PubMed

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-28

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

A spatial and genetic analysis of Cowbird host selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hahn, D.C.; Sedgwick, J.A.; Painter, I.S.; Casna, N.J.; Morrison, Michael L.; Hall, Linnea S.; Robinson, Scott K.; Rothstein, Stephen I.; Hahn, D. Caldwell; Rich, Terrell D.

1999-01-01

Our study of brood parasitism patterns in forest communities revealed the egg-laying frequency and host selection patterns of female cowbirds. By integrating molecular genetics and spatial data, we have the first published estimate on cowbird laying rates in field studies. The 29 females in the study laid only 1-5 eggs each, much lower than previous estimates from captive cowbirds and extrapolations from ovarian development in capture/recapture studies that had suggested that as many as 40 eggs could be laid per individual cowbird. Cowbird females also were shown for the first time to lay significantly more eggs within the home range areas they established rather than outside the home range. No patterns were uncovered for individual females preferentially parasitizing particular host species

Local Spatial Obesity Analysis and Estimation Using Online Social Network Sensors.

PubMed

Sun, Qindong; Wang, Nan; Li, Shancang; Zhou, Hongyi

2018-03-15

Recently, the online social networks (OSNs) have received considerable attentions as a revolutionary platform to offer users massive social interaction among users that enables users to be more involved in their own healthcare. The OSNs have also promoted increasing interests in the generation of analytical, data models in health informatics. This paper aims at developing an obesity identification, analysis, and estimation model, in which each individual user is regarded as an online social network 'sensor' that can provide valuable health information. The OSN-based obesity analytic model requires each sensor node in an OSN to provide associated features, including dietary habit, physical activity, integral/incidental emotions, and self-consciousness. Based on the detailed measurements on the correlation of obesity and proposed features, the OSN obesity analytic model is able to estimate the obesity rate in certain urban areas and the experimental results demonstrate a high success estimation rate. The measurements and estimation experimental findings created by the proposed obesity analytic model show that the online social networks could be used in analyzing the local spatial obesity problems effectively. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Virtual Sensor for Kinematic Estimation of Flexible Links in Parallel Robots

PubMed Central

Cabanes, Itziar; Mancisidor, Aitziber; Pinto, Charles

2017-01-01

The control of flexible link parallel manipulators is still an open area of research, endpoint trajectory tracking being one of the main challenges in this type of robot. The flexibility and deformations of the limbs make the estimation of the Tool Centre Point (TCP) position a challenging one. Authors have proposed different approaches to estimate this deformation and deduce the location of the TCP. However, most of these approaches require expensive measurement systems or the use of high computational cost integration methods. This work presents a novel approach based on a virtual sensor which can not only precisely estimate the deformation of the flexible links in control applications (less than 2% error), but also its derivatives (less than 6% error in velocity and 13% error in acceleration) according to simulation results. The validity of the proposed Virtual Sensor is tested in a Delta Robot, where the position of the TCP is estimated based on the Virtual Sensor measurements with less than a 0.03% of error in comparison with the flexible approach developed in ADAMS Multibody Software. PMID:28832510

Mars Propellant Liquefaction and Storage Performance Modeling using Thermal Desktop with an Integrated Cryocooler Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Desai, Pooja; Hauser, Dan; Sutherlin, Steven

2017-01-01

NASAs current Mars architectures are assuming the production and storage of 23 tons of liquid oxygen on the surface of Mars over a duration of 500+ days. In order to do this in a mass efficient manner, an energy efficient refrigeration system will be required. Based on previous analysis NASA has decided to do all liquefaction in the propulsion vehicle storage tanks. In order to allow for transient Martian environmental effects, a propellant liquefaction and storage system for a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) was modeled using Thermal Desktop. The model consisted of a propellant tank containing a broad area cooling loop heat exchanger integrated with a reverse turbo Brayton cryocooler. Cryocooler sizing and performance modeling was conducted using MAV diurnal heat loads and radiator rejection temperatures predicted from a previous thermal model of the MAV. A system was also sized and modeled using an alternative heat rejection system that relies on a forced convection heat exchanger. Cryocooler mass, input power, and heat rejection for both systems were estimated and compared against sizing based on non-transient sizing estimates.

HIV Care Continuum Applied to the US Department of Veterans Affairs: HIV Virologic Outcomes in an Integrated Health Care System.

PubMed

Backus, Lisa; Czarnogorski, Maggie; Yip, Gale; Thomas, Brittani P; Torres, Marisa; Bell, Tierney; Ross, David

2015-08-01

The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the largest integrated HIV care provider in the United States (US), used the HIV Care Continuum to compare clinical care within the VA HIV population with the general US HIV population and to identify areas for improvement. National data from the VA's HIV Clinical Case Registry were used to construct measures along the Continuum for Veterans in VA care diagnosed with HIV by June 2013 and alive by December 31, 2013. Comparisons were made to recent estimates for the same measures for the US HIV population. Additional comparisons were performed for demographic subgroups of sex, race/ethnicity, and age. Of 25,480 Veterans diagnosed with HIV, 77.4% were engaged in care compared with 46.3% in the US population diagnosed with HIV (P < 0.001). Seventy-three percent of Veterans diagnosed with HIV received antiretroviral therapy compared with 43% of the US population diagnosed with HIV (P < 0.001). Nearly two-thirds (65.3%) of HIV-diagnosed Veterans had suppressed HIV viral loads compared with 35.0% of the US population diagnosed with HIV (P < 0.001). The VA health care system performed better at every stage of the HIV Care Continuum compared with the general US estimates. Comparable high rates with some variation were noted among the demographic groups in the VA cohort. The high viral suppression rate in VA, which was almost double the estimate for the HIV-diagnosed US population, demonstrates that improved outcomes along the HIV Care Continuum can be achieved in a comprehensive integrated health care system.

Ikh Turgen Mountain Glacier Change and 3d Surface Extents Prediction Using Long Term Landsat Image and Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Erdenebat, Erdenetogtokh; Chogsom, Bolorchuluun; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag; Nanzad, Lkhagvadorj

2018-04-01

The glacier is most important the freshwater resources and indicator of the climate change. The researchers noted that during last decades the glacier is melting due to global warming. The study calculates a spatial distribution of protentional change of glacier coverage in the Ikh Turgen mountain of Western Mongolia, and it integrates long-term climate data and satellite datasets. Therefore, in this experiment has tried to estimation three-dimensional surface area of the glacier. For this purpose, Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) was applied to decision tree approach, using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and LC8 imagery for 1975-2016, a surface and slope for digital elevation model, precipitation and air temperature historical data of meteorological station. The potential volume area significantly changed glacier cover of the Ikh Turgen Mountain, and the area affected by highly variable precipitation and air temperature regimes. Between 1972 and 2016, a potential area of glacier area has been decreased in Ikh Turgen mountain region.

An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.

2017-12-01

Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.

Nonresponse in the National Survey of Children's Health, 2007.

PubMed

Skalland, Benjamin J; Blumberg, Stephen J

2012-06-01

For random-digit-dial telephone surveys, the increasing difficulty in contacting eligible households and obtaining their cooperation raises concerns about the potential for nonresponse bias. This report presents an analysis of nonresponse bias in the 2007 National Survey of Children's Health, a module of the State and Local Area Integrated Telephone Survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics. An attempt was made to measure bias in six key survey estimates using four different approaches: comparison of response rates for subgroups, use of sampling frame data, study of variation within the existing survey, and comparison of survey estimates with similar estimates from another source. Even when nonresponse-adjusted survey weights were used, the interviewed population was more likely to live in areas associated with higher levels of home ownership, lower home values, and greater proportions of non-Hispanic white persons when compared with the nonresponding population. Bias was found (although none greater than 3%) in national estimates of the proportion of children in excellent or very good health, those with consistent health insurance coverage, and those with a medical home. However, the level and direction of the bias depended on the approach used to measure it. There was no evidence of significant bias in the proportion of children with preventive medical care visits, those with families who ate daily meals together, or those living in safe neighborhoods.

Estimation of the emission factors of PAHs by traffic with the model of atmospheric dispersion and deposition from heavy traffic road.

PubMed

Ozaki, N; Tokumitsu, H; Kojima, K; Kindaichi, T

2007-01-01

In order to consider the total atmospheric loadings of the PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) from traffic activities, the emission factors of PAHs were estimated and from the obtained emission factors and vehicle transportation statistics, total atmospheric loadings were integrated and the loadings into the water body were estimated on a regional scale. The atmospheric concentration of PAHs was measured at the roadside of a road with heavy traffic in the Hiroshima area in Japan. The samplings were conducted in summer and winter. Atmospheric particulate matters (fine particle, 0.6-7 microm; coarse particle, over 7 microm) and their PAH concentration were measured. Also, four major emission sources (gasoline and diesel vehicle emissions, tire and asphalt debris) were assumed for vehicle transportation activities, the chemical mass balance method was applied and the source partitioning at the roadside was estimated. Furthermore, the dispersion of atmospheric particles from the vehicles was modelled and the emission factors of the sources were determined by the comparison to the chemical mass balance results. Based on emission factors derived from the modelling, an atmospheric dispersion model of nationwide scale (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology - Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Exposure and Risk assessment) was applied, and the atmospheric concentration and loading to the ground were calculated for the Hiroshima Bay watershed area.

ACA Marketplace premiums and competition among hospitals and physician practices.

PubMed

Polyakova, Maria; Bundorf, M Kate; Kessler, Daniel P; Baker, Laurence C

2018-02-01

To examine the association between annual premiums for health plans available in Federally Facilitated Marketplaces (FFMs) and the extent of competition and integration among physicians and hospitals, as well as the number of insurers. We used observational data from the Center for Consumer Information and Insurance Oversight on the annual premiums and other characteristics of plans, matched to measures of physician, hospital, and insurer market competitiveness and other characteristics of 411 rating areas in the 37 FFMs. We estimated multivariate models of the relationship between annual premiums and Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of hospitals and physician practices, controlling for the number of insurers, the extent of physician-hospital integration, and other plan and rating area characteristics. Premiums for Marketplace plans were higher in rating areas in which physician, hospital, and insurance markets were less competitive. An increase from the 10th to the 90th percentile of physician concentration and hospital concentration was associated with increases of $393 and $189, respectively, in annual premiums for the Silver plan with the second lowest cost. A similar increase in the number of insurers was associated with a $421 decrease in premiums. Physician-hospital integration was not significantly associated with premiums. Premiums for FFM plans were higher in markets with greater concentrations of hospitals and physicians but fewer insurers. Higher premiums make health insurance less affordable for people purchasing unsubsidized coverage and raise the cost of Marketplace premium tax credits to the government.

Local soil quality assessment of north-central Namibia: integrating farmers' and technical knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudat, Brice; Bloemertz, Lena; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

2018-02-01

Soil degradation is a major threat for farmers of semi-arid north-central Namibia. Soil conservation practices can be promoted by the development of soil quality (SQ) evaluation toolboxes that provide ways to evaluate soil degradation. However, such toolboxes must be adapted to local conditions to reach farmers. Based on qualitative (interviews and soil descriptions) and quantitative (laboratory analyses) data, we developed a set of SQ indicators relevant for our study area that integrates farmers' field experiences (FFEs) and technical knowledge. We suggest using participatory mapping to delineate soil units (Oshikwanyama soil units, KwSUs) based on FFEs, which highlight mostly soil properties that integrate long-term productivity and soil hydrological characteristics (i.e. internal SQ). The actual SQ evaluation of a location depends on the KwSU described and is thereafter assessed by field soil texture (i.e. chemical fertility potential) and by soil colour shade (i.e. SOC status). This three-level information aims to reveal SQ improvement potential by comparing, for any location, (a) estimated clay content against median clay content (specific to KwSU) and (b) soil organic status against calculated optimal values (depends on clay content). The combination of farmers' and technical assessment cumulates advantages of both systems of knowledge, namely the integrated long-term knowledge of the farmers and a short- and medium-term SQ status assessment. The toolbox is a suggestion for evaluating SQ and aims to help farmers, rural development planners and researchers from all fields of studies understanding SQ issues in north-central Namibia. This suggested SQ toolbox is adapted to a restricted area of north-central Namibia, but similar tools could be developed in most areas where small-scale agriculture prevails.

Preliminary Results from an Integrated Airborne EM and Aeromagnetic Survey in Yellowstone National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickey, K.; Holbrook, W. S.; Finn, C.; Auken, E.; Carr, B.; Sims, K. W. W.; Bedrosian, P.; Lowenstern, J. B.; Hurwitz, S.; Pedersen, J. B. B.

2017-12-01

Yellowstone National Park hosts over 10,000 thermal features (e.g. geysers, fumaroles, mud pots, and hot springs), yet little is known about the circulation depth of meteoric water feeding these features, nor the lithological and structural bounds on the pathways that guide deep, hot fluids to the surface. Previous near-surface geophysical studies have been effective in imaging shallow hydrothermal pathways in some areas of the park, but these methods are difficult to conduct over the large areas needed to characterize entire hydrothermal systems. Transient electromagnetic (TEM) soundings and 2D direct current (DC) resistivity profiles show that hydrothermal fluids at active sites have a higher electrical conductivity than the surrounding hydrothermally inactive areas. For that reason, airborne TEM is an effective method to characterize large areas and identify hydrothermally active and inactive zones using electrical conductivity. Aeromagnetic data have been useful in mapping faults that localize hot springs, making the integration of aeromagnetic and EM data effective for structurally characterizing fluid pathways. Here we present the preliminary results from an airborne transient electromagnetic (TEM) and magnetic survey acquired jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Wyoming (UW) in November 2016. We integrate the EM and magnetic data for the purpose of edge detection of rhyolite flow boundaries as well as source depth of hydrothermal features. The maximum horizontal gradient technique applied on magnetic data is a useful tool that used to estimate source depth as well as indicate faults and fractures. The integration of EM with magnetics allows us to distinguish hydrothermally altered fault systems that guide fluids in the subsurface. We have used preliminary 2D inversions of EM from Aarhus Workbench to delineate rhyolite flow edges in the upper 300-600 meters and cross-checked those boundaries with the aeromagnetic map.

State estimation for autopilot control of small unmanned aerial vehicles in windy conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poorman, David Paul

The use of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) both in the military and civil realms is growing. This is largely due to the proliferation of inexpensive sensors and the increase in capability of small computers that has stemmed from the personal electronic device market. Methods for performing accurate state estimation for large scale aircraft have been well known and understood for decades, which usually involve a complex array of expensive high accuracy sensors. Performing accurate state estimation for small unmanned aircraft is a newer area of study and often involves adapting known state estimation methods to small UAVs. State estimation for small UAVs can be more difficult than state estimation for larger UAVs due to small UAVs employing limited sensor suites due to cost, and the fact that small UAVs are more susceptible to wind than large aircraft. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the ability of existing methods of state estimation for small UAVs to accurately capture the states of the aircraft that are necessary for autopilot control of the aircraft in a Dryden wind field. The research begins by showing which aircraft states are necessary for autopilot control in Dryden wind. Then two state estimation methods that employ only accelerometer, gyro, and GPS measurements are introduced. The first method uses assumptions on aircraft motion to directly solve for attitude information and smooth GPS data, while the second method integrates sensor data to propagate estimates between GPS measurements and then corrects those estimates with GPS information. The performance of both methods is analyzed with and without Dryden wind, in straight and level flight, in a coordinated turn, and in a wings level ascent. It is shown that in zero wind, the first method produces significant steady state attitude errors in both a coordinated turn and in a wings level ascent. In Dryden wind, it produces large noise on the estimates for its attitude states, and has a non-zero mean error that increases when gyro bias is increased. The second method is shown to not exhibit any steady state error in the tested scenarios that is inherent to its design. The second method can correct for attitude errors that arise from both integration error and gyro bias states, but it suffers from lack of attitude error observability. The attitude errors are shown to be more observable in wind, but increased integration error in wind outweighs the increase in attitude corrections that such increased observability brings, resulting in larger attitude errors in wind. Overall, this work highlights many technical deficiencies of both of these methods of state estimation that could be improved upon in the future to enhance state estimation for small UAVs in windy conditions.

ERF1_2 -- Enhanced River Reach File 2.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, Jacqueline V.; Brakebill, John W.; Alexander, Richard B.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2003-01-01

The digital segmented network based on watershed boundaries, ERF1_2, includes enhancements to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's River Reach File 1 (RF1) (USEPA, 1996; DeWald and others, 1985) to support national and regional-scale surface water-quality modeling. Alexander and others (1999) developed ERF1, which assessed the hydrologic integrity of the digital reach traces and calculated the mean water time-of-travel in river reaches and reservoirs. ERF1_2 serves as the foundation for SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions (of nutrient transport) on Watershed) modeling. Within the context of a Geographic Information System, SPARROW estimates the proportion of watersheds in the conterminous U.S. with outflow concentrations of several nutrients, including total nitrogen and total phosphorus, (Smith, R.A., Schwarz, G.E., and Alexander, R.B., 1997). This version of the network expands on ERF1 (Version 1.2; Alexander, et al., 1999) and includes the incremental and total drainage area derived from 1-kilometer (km) elevation data for North America. Previous estimates of the water time-of-travel were recomputed for reaches with water-quality monitoring sites that included two reaches. The mean flow and velocity estimates for these split reaches are based on previous estimation methods (Alexander et al., 1999) and are unchanged in ERF1_2. Drainage area calculations provide data used to estimate the contribution of a given nutrient to the outflow. Data estimates depend on the accuracy of node connectivity. Reaches split at water-quality or pesticide-monitoring sites indicate the source point for estimating the contribution and transport of nutrients and their loads throughout the watersheds. The ERF1_2 coverage extends the earlier drainage area founded on the 1-kilometer data for North America (Verdin, 1996; Verdin and Jenson, 1996). A 1-kilometer raster grid of ERF1_2 projected to Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area, NAD 27 Datum (Snyder, 1987), was merged with the HYDRO1K flow direction data set (Verdin and Jenson, 1996) to generate a DEM-based watershed grid, ERF1_2WS_LG. The watershed boundaries are maintained in a raster (grid cell) format as well as a vector (polygon) format for subsequent model analysis. Both the coverage, ERF1_2, and the grid, ERF1_2WS_LG, are available at: URL:http://water.usgs.gov/lookup/getspatial?erf1_2

A cooperative positioning algorithm for DSRC enabled vehicular networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efatmaneshnik, M.; Kealy, A.; Alam, N.; Dempster, A. G.

2011-12-01

Many of the safety related applications that can be facilitated by Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC), such as vehicle proximity warnings, automated braking (e.g. at level crossings), speed advisories, pedestrian alerts etc., rely on a robust vehicle positioning capability such as that provided by a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Vehicles in remote areas, entering tunnels, high rise areas or any high multipath/ weak signal environment will challenge the integrity of GNSS position solutions, and ultimately the safety application it underpins. To address this challenge, this paper presents an innovative application of Cooperative Positioning techniques within vehicular networks. CP refers to any method of integrating measurements from different positioning systems and sensors in order to improve the overall quality (accuracy and reliability) of the final position solution. This paper investigates the potential of the DSRC infrastructure itself to provide an inter-vehicular ranging signal that can be used as a measurement within the CP algorithm. In this paper, time-based techniques of ranging are introduced and bandwidth requirements are investigated and presented. The robustness of the CP algorithm to inter-vehicle connection failure as well as GNSS dropouts is also demonstrated using simulation studies. Finally, the performance of the Constrained Kalman Filter used to integrate GNSS measurements with DSRC derived range estimates within a typical VANET is described and evaluated.

Mean-field models for heterogeneous networks of two-dimensional integrate and fire neurons.

PubMed

Nicola, Wilten; Campbell, Sue Ann

2013-01-01

We analytically derive mean-field models for all-to-all coupled networks of heterogeneous, adapting, two-dimensional integrate and fire neurons. The class of models we consider includes the Izhikevich, adaptive exponential and quartic integrate and fire models. The heterogeneity in the parameters leads to different moment closure assumptions that can be made in the derivation of the mean-field model from the population density equation for the large network. Three different moment closure assumptions lead to three different mean-field systems. These systems can be used for distinct purposes such as bifurcation analysis of the large networks, prediction of steady state firing rate distributions, parameter estimation for actual neurons and faster exploration of the parameter space. We use the mean-field systems to analyze adaptation induced bursting under realistic sources of heterogeneity in multiple parameters. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of heterogeneity causes the Hopf bifurcation associated with the emergence of bursting to change from sub-critical to super-critical. This is confirmed with numerical simulations of the full network for biologically reasonable parameter values. This change decreases the plausibility of adaptation being the cause of bursting in hippocampal area CA3, an area with a sizable population of heavily coupled, strongly adapting neurons.

From Constructive Field Theory to Fractional Stochastic Calculus. (II) Constructive Proof of Convergence for the Lévy Area of Fractional Brownian Motion with Hurst Index {{alpha} {in} ((1)/(8),(1)/(4))}

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnen, Jacques; Unterberger, Jérémie

2012-03-01

{Let $B=(B_1(t),...,B_d(t))$ be a $d$-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $\\alpha<1/4$, or more generally a Gaussian process whose paths have the same local regularity. Defining properly iterated integrals of $B$ is a difficult task because of the low H\\"older regularity index of its paths. Yet rough path theory shows it is the key to the construction of a stochastic calculus with respect to $B$, or to solving differential equations driven by $B$. We intend to show in a series of papers how to desingularize iterated integrals by a weak, singular non-Gaussian perturbation of the Gaussian measure defined by a limit in law procedure. Convergence is proved by using "standard" tools of constructive field theory, in particular cluster expansions and renormalization. These powerful tools allow optimal estimates, and call for an extension of Gaussian tools such as for instance the Malliavin calculus. After a first introductory paper \\cite{MagUnt1}, this one concentrates on the details of the constructive proof of convergence for second-order iterated integrals, also known as L\\'evy area.

Integrated planning and spatial evaluation of megasite remediation and reuse options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schädler, Sebastian; Morio, Maximilian; Bartke, Stephan; Finkel, Michael

2012-01-01

Redevelopment of large contaminated brownfields (megasites) is often hampered by a lack of communication and harmonization among diverse stakeholders with potentially conflicting interests. Decision support is required to provide integrative yet transparent evaluation of often complex spatial information to stakeholders with different areas of expertise. It is considered crucial for successful redevelopment to identify a shared vision of how the respective contaminated site could be remediated and redeveloped. We describe a framework of assessment methods and models that analyzes and visualizes site- and land use-specific spatial information at the screening level, with the aim to support the derivation of recommendable land use layouts and to initiate further and more detailed planning. The framework integrates a GIS-based identification of areas to be remediated, an estimation of associated clean-up costs, a spatially explicit market value appraisal, and an assessment of the planned future land use's contribution to sustainable urban and regional development. Case study results show that derived options are potentially favorable in both a sustainability and an economic sense and that iterative re-planning is facilitated by the evaluation and visualization of economic, ecological and socio-economic aspects. The framework supports an efficient early judgment about whether and how abandoned land may be assigned a sustainable and marketable land use.

Mean-field models for heterogeneous networks of two-dimensional integrate and fire neurons

PubMed Central

Nicola, Wilten; Campbell, Sue Ann

2013-01-01

We analytically derive mean-field models for all-to-all coupled networks of heterogeneous, adapting, two-dimensional integrate and fire neurons. The class of models we consider includes the Izhikevich, adaptive exponential and quartic integrate and fire models. The heterogeneity in the parameters leads to different moment closure assumptions that can be made in the derivation of the mean-field model from the population density equation for the large network. Three different moment closure assumptions lead to three different mean-field systems. These systems can be used for distinct purposes such as bifurcation analysis of the large networks, prediction of steady state firing rate distributions, parameter estimation for actual neurons and faster exploration of the parameter space. We use the mean-field systems to analyze adaptation induced bursting under realistic sources of heterogeneity in multiple parameters. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of heterogeneity causes the Hopf bifurcation associated with the emergence of bursting to change from sub-critical to super-critical. This is confirmed with numerical simulations of the full network for biologically reasonable parameter values. This change decreases the plausibility of adaptation being the cause of bursting in hippocampal area CA3, an area with a sizable population of heavily coupled, strongly adapting neurons. PMID:24416013

Comparison of risk estimates using life-table methods.

PubMed

Sullivan, R E; Weng, P S

1987-08-01

Risk estimates promulgated by various radiation protection authorities in recent years have become increasingly more complex. Early "integral" estimates in the form of health effects per 0.01 person-Gy (per person-rad) or per 10(4) person-Gy (per 10(6) person-rad) have tended to be replaced by "differential" estimates which are age- and sex-dependent and specify both minimum induction (latency) and duration of risk expression (plateau) periods. These latter types of risk estimate must be used in conjunction with a life table in order to reduce them to integral form. In this paper, the life table has been used to effect a comparison of the organ and tissue risk estimates derived in several recent reports. In addition, a brief review of life-table methodology is presented and some features of the models used in deriving differential coefficients are discussed. While the great number of permutations possible with dose-response models, detailed risk estimates and proposed projection models precludes any unique result, the reduced integral coefficients are required to conform to the linear, absolute-risk model recommended for use with the integral risk estimates reviewed.

Customization of a hydrological model for the estimation of water resources in an alpine karstified catchment with sparse data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauzlaric, Martina; Schädler, Bruno; Weingartner, Rolf

2014-05-01

The main objective of the MontanAqua transdisciplinary project is to develop strategies moving towards a more sustainable water resources management in the Crans-Montana-Sierre region (Valais, Switzerland) in view of global change. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the available water resources in the study area today and in the future is needed. The study region is situated in the inner alpine zone, with strong altitudinal precipitation gradients: from the precipitation rich alpine ridge down to the dry Rhône plain. A typical plateau glacier on top of the ridge is partly drained through the karstic underground formations and linked to various springs to either side of the water divide. The main anthropogenic influences on the system are reservoirs and diversions to the irrigation channels. Thus, the study area does not cover a classical hydrological basin as the water flows frequently across natural hydrographic boundaries. This is a big challenge from a hydrological point of view, as we cannot easily achieve a closed, measured water balance. Over and above, a lack of comprehensive historical data in the catchment reduces the degree of process conceptualization possible, as well as prohibits usual parameter estimation procedures. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) (Kumar, 2009) has been selected to estimate the available natural water resource for the whole study area. It is a semi-discrete, physically-based model which includes: channel routing, overland flow, subsurface saturated and unsaturated flow, rainfall interception, snow melting and evapotranspiration. Its unstructured mesh decomposition offers a flexible domain decomposition strategy for efficient and accurate integration of the physiographic, climatic and hydrographic watershed. The model was modified in order to be more suitable for a karstified mountainous catchment: it now includes the possibility to punctually add external sources, and the temperature-index approach for estimating melt was adjusted to include the influence of solar radiation. No parameter calibration in a classical sense was used as sufficient observations are missing. Hence, parameters are estimated with values obtained from the literature, catchment boundaries were determined basing on tracer experiments, as well as the relationship between precipitation, spring- and river-discharge. Historical data such as river discharge, infiltration experiments and snow and glacier mass balance measurements were used to validate simulations. Here some case studies are presented, illustrating the difficulty of estimating snowmelt and icemelt parameters, of judging their correctness, as well as the consequent sensitivity of the regional water balance. REFERENCES Kumar, M. 2009: Toward a hydrologic modeling system. PhD Thesis, Departement of civil and Environmental engineering, Pennsylvania State University, USA.

Modeling Integrated Cave Drip Recharge Data using DReAM (Daily Recharge Assessment Model) in a Dry Eastern Mediterranean Area, Sif Cave - Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anker, Y.; Sheffer, N. A.; Scanlon, B. R.; Gimburg, A.; Morin, E.

2010-12-01

Understanding recharge mechanisms and controls in karst regions is extremely important for managing water resources because of the dynamic nature of the system. To better understand this mechanism, a cave in the recharge area of the karstic Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) of Israel was equipped to measure precipitation infiltration (2006-2008) by collecting integrated water drips from three areas in the cave (14, 46, and 52 m2 areas). Barrels equipped with pressure transducers record drip rate and volume for each of the three areas and enable estimation of recharge. A water budget model - DReAM (Daily Recharge Assessment Model) was used to quantify and predict infiltration behavior at the cave. DReAM includes calculations of all water cycle components - precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and recharge. The model was calibrated and validated using two independent sets of values, providing good agreement between calculated and observed data. Modeling results agree with previous studies that show: 1) three distinct flow paths (slow, intermediate, and fast flows) of water infiltrating at the cave; 2) a threshold of ~100 mm rain at the beginning of the rainy season for infiltration to begin; and 3) a decrease in lag time between rain events and infiltration response throughout the rainy season. This modeling tool and analysis approach can translate precipitation to groundwater recharge which will be very important for projecting future water resources in response to climate variability.

Integration of soil magnetometry and geochemistry for assessment of human health risk from metallurgical slag dumps.

PubMed

Rachwał, Marzena; Wawer, Małgorzata; Magiera, Tadeusz; Steinnes, Eiliv

2017-12-01

The main objective of the study was an assessment of the pollution level of agricultural land located close to dumps of industrial waste remaining after former Zn and Pb ore processing in Poland. The integrated geophysical-geochemical methods were applied for assessment of soil quality with respect to trace element pollution. Additionally, human health risk induced by the contaminated arable soil and dusting slag heap was estimated. The investigations pointed out that soils in the vicinity of the metallurgical slag dump in Piekary were heavily polluted. Spatial distribution of magnetic susceptibility corresponding well with distribution of the content of potentially toxic elements indicated the local "pollution hotspots." Proper geophysical and geochemical data interpretation supported by statistical factor analysis enabled identification of three different sources of pollution including metallurgical slug dump as a main source, but also traffic pollution influencing the area located along the busy road and relatively strong influence of the geochemical background. Computed health hazard index revealed no adverse health effect to the farmers cultivating arable soil, but in the direct vicinity of dusting, slag dump health risk occurred, caused mostly by very toxic elements as As and Tl. In the future, investigation should be focused on contribution of different sources to the heavy metal pollution in soil-crop system in this area. It should be highlighted that a site-specific approach should be taken in order to redevelop this kind of area in order to reduce ecological and human health threat. The study proved the integrated two-stage geophysical-geochemical method to be a feasible, reliable, and cost-effective tool for identification of the extent of soil pollution and areas at risk.

Delineation of groundwater development potential zones in parts of marginal Ganga Alluvial Plain in South Bihar, Eastern India.

PubMed

Saha, Dipankar; Dhar, Y R; Vittala, S S

2010-06-01

A part of the Gangetic Alluvial Plain covering 2,228 km(2), in the state of Bihar, is studied for demarcating groundwater development potential zones. The area is mainly agrarian and experiencing intensive groundwater draft to the tune of 0.12 million cubic metre per square kilometres per year from the Quaternary marginal alluvial deposits, unconformably overlain northerly sloping Precambrian bedrock. Multiparametric data on groundwater comprising water level, hydraulic gradient (pre- and post-monsoon), aquifer thickness, permeability, suitability of groundwater for drinking and irrigation and groundwater resources vs. draft are spatially analysed and integrated on a Geographical Information System platform to generate thematic layers. By integrating these layers, three zones have been delineated based on groundwater development potential. It is inferred that about 48% of the area covering northern part has high development potential, while medium and low development potential category covers 41% of the area. Further increase in groundwater extraction is not recommended for an area of 173 km(2), affected by over-exploitation. The replenishable groundwater resource available for further extraction has been estimated. The development potential enhances towards north with increase in thickness of sediments. Local deviations are due to variation of-(1) cumulative thickness of aquifers, (2) deeper water level resulting from localised heavy groundwater extraction and (3) aquifer permeability.

A critical source area phosphorus index with topographic transport factors using high resolution LiDAR digital elevation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Ian; Murphy, Paul; Fenton, Owen; Shine, Oliver; Mellander, Per-Erik; Dunlop, Paul; Jordan, Phil

2015-04-01

A new phosphorus index (PI) tool is presented which aims to improve the identification of critical source areas (CSAs) of phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural land to surface waters. In a novel approach, the PI incorporates topographic indices rather than watercourse proximity as proxies for runoff risk, to account for the dominant control of topography on runoff-generating areas and P transport pathways. Runoff propensity and hydrological connectivity are modelled using the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and Network Index (NI) respectively, utilising high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) to capture the influence of micro-topographic features on runoff pathways. Additionally, the PI attempts to improve risk estimates of particulate P losses by incorporating an erosion factor that accounts for fine-scale topographic variability within fields. Erosion risk is modelled using the Unit Stream Power Erosion Deposition (USPED) model, which integrates DEM-derived upslope contributing area and Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) factors. The PI was developed using field, sub-field and sub-catchment scale datasets of P source, mobilisation and transport factors, for four intensive agricultural catchments in Ireland representing different agri-environmental conditions. Datasets included soil test P concentrations, degree of P saturation, soil attributes, land use, artificial subsurface drainage locations, and 2 m resolution LiDAR DEMs resampled from 0.25 m resolution data. All factor datasets were integrated within a Geographical Information System (GIS) and rasterised to 2 m resolution. For each factor, values were categorised and assigned relative risk scores which ranked P loss potential. Total risk scores were calculated for each grid cell using a component formulation, which summed the products of weighted factor risk scores for runoff and erosion pathways. Results showed that the new PI was able to predict in-field risk variability and hence was able to identify CSAs at the sub-field scale. PI risk estimates and component scores were analysed at catchment and subcatchment scales, and validated using measured dissolved, particulate and total P losses at subcatchment snapshot sites and gauging stations at catchment outlets. The new PI provides CSA delineations at higher precision compared to conventional PIs, and more robust P transport risk estimates. The tool can be used to target cost-effective mitigation measures for P management within single farm units and wider catchments.

Assessing the impact of Syrian refugees on earthquake fatality estimations in southeast Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Bradley; Paradise, Thomas

2018-01-01

The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into local cities, towns, and villages - placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong earthquake shaking. Yet displaced populations are often unaccounted for in the census-based population models used in earthquake fatality estimations. This study creates a minimally modeled refugee gridded population model and analyzes its impact on semi-empirical fatality estimations across southeast Turkey. Daytime and nighttime fatality estimates were produced for five fault segments at earthquake magnitudes 5.8, 6.4, and 7.0. Baseline fatality estimates calculated from census-based population estimates for the study area varied in scale from tens to thousands of fatalities, with higher death totals in nighttime scenarios. Refugee fatality estimations were analyzed across 500 semi-random building occupancy distributions. Median fatality estimates for refugee populations added non-negligible contributions to earthquake fatalities at four of five fault locations, increasing total fatality estimates by 7-27 %. These findings communicate the necessity of incorporating refugee statistics into earthquake fatality estimations in southeast Turkey and the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context.

Integration of contributed data with HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model for flood inundation and damage assessment: 2015 Dallas Texas Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sava, E.; Thornton, J. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.; Cervone, G.

2016-12-01

Transportation infrastructure networks in urban areas are highly sensitive to natural disasters, yet are a very critical source for the success of rescue, recovery, and renovation operations. Therefore, prompt restoration of such networks is of high importance for disaster relief services. Satellite and aerial images provide data with high spatial and temporal resolution and are a powerful tool for monitoring the environment and mapping the spatio-temporal variability of the Earth's surface. They provide a synoptic overview and give useful environmental information for a wide range of scales, from entire continents to urban areas, with spatial pixel resolutions ranging from kilometers to centimeters. However, sensor limitations are often a serious drawback since no single sensor offers the optimal spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution at the same time. Specific data may not be collected in the time and space most urgently required and/or may it contain gaps as a result of the satellite revisit time, atmospheric opacity, or other obstructions. In this study, the feasibility of integrating multiple sources of contributed data including remotely sensed datasets and open-source geospatial datasets, into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulations is assessed. The 2015 Dallas floods that caused up to $61 million dollars in damage was selected for this study. A Hydraulic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model was developed for the study area, using reservoir surcharge releases and geometry provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Fort Worth District. The simulated flood inundation is compared with the "contributed data" for the location (such as Civil Air Patrol data and WorldView 3 dataset) which indicated the model's lack of representing lateral inflows near the upstream section. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed that used local precipitation and discharge values in the vicinity to estimate the lateral flows. This addition of estimated lateral inflows is expected to improve the model performance to match with the observed flows. Future work will focus on extending this preliminary work to assess the model performance after integrating these additional data sources.

Topics in global convergence of density estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Devroye, L.

1982-01-01

The problem of estimating a density f on R sup d from a sample Xz(1),...,X(n) of independent identically distributed random vectors is critically examined, and some recent results in the field are reviewed. The following statements are qualified: (1) For any sequence of density estimates f(n), any arbitrary slow rate of convergence to 0 is possible for E(integral/f(n)-fl); (2) In theoretical comparisons of density estimates, integral/f(n)-f/ should be used and not integral/f(n)-f/sup p, p 1; and (3) For most reasonable nonparametric density estimates, either there is convergence of integral/f(n)-f/ (and then the convergence is in the strongest possible sense for all f), or there is no convergence (even in the weakest possible sense for a single f). There is no intermediate situation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Islam, Md. Shafiqul, E-mail: shafique@eng.ukm.my; Hannan, M.A., E-mail: hannan@eng.ukm.my; Basri, Hassan

Highlights: • Solid waste bin level detection using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). • Gabor wavelet filter is used to extract the solid waste image features. • Multi-Layer Perceptron classifier network is used for bin image classification. • The classification performance evaluated by ROC curve analysis. - Abstract: The increasing requirement for Solid Waste Management (SWM) has become a significant challenge for municipal authorities. A number of integrated systems and methods have introduced to overcome this challenge. Many researchers have aimed to develop an ideal SWM system, including approaches involving software-based routing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Radio-frequency Identification (RFID), or sensormore » intelligent bins. Image processing solutions for the Solid Waste (SW) collection have also been developed; however, during capturing the bin image, it is challenging to position the camera for getting a bin area centralized image. As yet, there is no ideal system which can correctly estimate the amount of SW. This paper briefly discusses an efficient image processing solution to overcome these problems. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was used for detecting and cropping the bin area and Gabor wavelet (GW) was introduced for feature extraction of the waste bin image. Image features were used to train the classifier. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) classifier was used to classify the waste bin level and estimate the amount of waste inside the bin. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves was used to statistically evaluate classifier performance. The results of this developed system are comparable to previous image processing based system. The system demonstration using DTW with GW for feature extraction and an MLP classifier led to promising results with respect to the accuracy of waste level estimation (98.50%). The application can be used to optimize the routing of waste collection based on the estimated bin level.« less

Environmental Public Health Surveillance for Exposure to Respiratory Health Hazards: A Joint NASA/CDC Project to Use Remote Sensing Data for Estimating Airborne Particulate Matter Over the Atlanta, Georgia Metropolitan Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Estes, Maurice; Crosson, William

2007-01-01

As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN) the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELiX-Atlanta). The goal of developing the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is to improve the health of communities. Currently, few systems exist at the state or national level to concurrently track many of the exposures and health effects that might be associated with environmental hazards. An additional challenge is estimating exposure to environmental hazards such as particulate matter whose aerodynamic diameter is less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5). HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of Metropolitan Atlanta, GA. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) is collaborating with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of PM2.5 concentrations that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma. While use of the Air Quality System (AQS) PM2.5 data alone could meet HELIX-Atlanta specifications, there are only five AQS sites in the Atlanta area, thus the spatial coverage is not ideal. We are using NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data for estimating daily ground level PM2.5 at 10 km resolution over the metropolitan Atlanta area supplementing the AQS ground observations and filling their spatial and temporal gaps.

Comment on "Propionaldehyde infrared cross-sections and band strengths" by B. Köroğlu et al. [1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Wagner Eduardo; Bruns, Roy Edward

2016-08-01

The propionaldehyde infrared regional integrated area reported by Köroğlu et al. were re-examined. Even though the spectrum seems to be recorded correctly, the comparison between their values with the data obtained by the integration of the propionaldehyde spectrum available in the PNNL database suggests that a scaling factor of 2.3025 (the ratio between ln and log bases) is the reason for their results being lower than those expected based on other literature values and quantum chemical estimates. Revised values were then reported for the four spectral regions evaluated by these authors, resulting in a much better agreement between both theoretical and experimental results for not only for this molecule but also for others like acetone and acetaldehyde.

Desktop Computing Integration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tureman, Robert L., Jr.

1992-01-01

The Desktop Computing Integration Project for the Human Resources Management Division (HRMD) of LaRC was designed to help division personnel use personal computing resources to perform job tasks. The three goals of the project were to involve HRMD personnel in desktop computing, link mainframe data to desktop capabilities, and to estimate training needs for the division. The project resulted in increased usage of personal computers by Awards specialists, an increased awareness of LaRC resources to help perform tasks, and personal computer output that was used in presentation of information to center personnel. In addition, the necessary skills for HRMD personal computer users were identified. The Awards Office was chosen for the project because of the consistency of their data requests and the desire of employees in that area to use the personal computer.

Harmonic analysis of the DTU10 global gravity anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrykosov, O.; Förste, Ch.; Gruber, Ch.; Shako, R.; Barthelmes, F.

2012-04-01

We have computed the Earth's gravity models to degree/order 5400 and 10800 (in terms of the ellipsoidal and spherical harmonics) from a rigorous integration of the 2'x2' and 1'x1' global grids of gravity anomalies provided by the Danish Technical University (DTU). The gravity signal recovered from the DTU10 data shows 1) a strong dependency on the truncation of the EGM2008 gravity model which were used to fill-in land areas in the DTU10 grids and 2) an irregular behaviour at frequencies behind the resolution of the EGM2008. We discuss the gravity signal and its accuracy estimation computed from the complete DTU10 grids as well as separately from the data over land and ocean areas.

Toward a Multi-City Framework for Urban GHG Estimation in the United States: Methods, Uncertainties, and Future Goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, K. L.; Callahan, W.; Davis, K. J.; Dickerson, R. R.; Duren, R. M.; Gurney, K. R.; Karion, A.; Keeling, R. F.; Kim, J.; Lauvaux, T.; Miller, C. E.; Shepson, P. B.; Turnbull, J. C.; Weiss, R. F.; Whetstone, J. R.

2017-12-01

City and State governments are increasingly interested in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to improve sustainability within their jurisdictions. Estimation of urban GHG emissions remains an active research area with many sources of uncertainty. To support the effort of improving measurement of trace gas emissions in city environments, several federal agencies along with academic, research, and private entities have been working within a handful of domestic metropolitan areas to improve both (1) the assessment of GHG emissions accuracy using a variety of measurement technologies, and (2) the tools that can better assess GHG inventory data at urban mitigation scales based upon these measurements. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) activities have focused on three areas, or testbeds: Indianapolis (INFLUX experiment), Los Angeles (the LA Megacities project), and the Northeastern Corridor areas encompassing Washington and Baltimore (the NEC/BW GHG Measurements project). These cities represent diverse meteorological, terrain, demographic, and emissions characteristics having a broad range of complexities. To date this research has involved multiple measurement systems and integrated observing approaches, all aimed at advancing development of a robust, science-base upon which higher accuracy quantification approaches can rest. Progress toward such scientifically robust, widely-accepted emissions quantification methods will rely upon continuous performance assessment. Such assessment is challenged by the complexities of cities themselves (e.g., population, urban form) along with the many variables impacting a city's technological ability to estimate its GHG emissions (e.g., meteorology, density of observations). We present the different NIST testbeds and a proposal to initiate conceptual development of a reference framework supporting the comparison of multi-city GHG emissions estimates. Such a reference framework has potential to provide the basis for city governments to choose the measurements and methods that can quantify their GHG and related trace gas emissions at levels commensurate with their needs.

Application of an imputation method for geospatial inventory of forest structural attributes across multiple spatial scales in the Lake States, U.S.A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deo, Ram K.

Credible spatial information characterizing the structure and site quality of forests is critical to sustainable forest management and planning, especially given the increasing demands and threats to forest products and services. Forest managers and planners are required to evaluate forest conditions over a broad range of scales, contingent on operational or reporting requirements. Traditionally, forest inventory estimates are generated via a design-based approach that involves generalizing sample plot measurements to characterize an unknown population across a larger area of interest. However, field plot measurements are costly and as a consequence spatial coverage is limited. Remote sensing technologies have shown remarkable success in augmenting limited sample plot data to generate stand- and landscape-level spatial predictions of forest inventory attributes. Further enhancement of forest inventory approaches that couple field measurements with cutting edge remotely sensed and geospatial datasets are essential to sustainable forest management. We evaluated a novel Random Forest based k Nearest Neighbors (RF-kNN) imputation approach to couple remote sensing and geospatial data with field inventory collected by different sampling methods to generate forest inventory information across large spatial extents. The forest inventory data collected by the FIA program of US Forest Service was integrated with optical remote sensing and other geospatial datasets to produce biomass distribution maps for a part of the Lake States and species-specific site index maps for the entire Lake State. Targeting small-area application of the state-of-art remote sensing, LiDAR (light detection and ranging) data was integrated with the field data collected by an inexpensive method, called variable plot sampling, in the Ford Forest of Michigan Tech to derive standing volume map in a cost-effective way. The outputs of the RF-kNN imputation were compared with independent validation datasets and extant map products based on different sampling and modeling strategies. The RF-kNN modeling approach was found to be very effective, especially for large-area estimation, and produced results statistically equivalent to the field observations or the estimates derived from secondary data sources. The models are useful to resource managers for operational and strategic purposes.

A Methodology for Developing Army Acquisition Strategies for an Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

manuscript for publication. Acronyms ABP Assumption-Based Planning ACEIT Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tool ACR Armored Cavalry Regiment ACTD...decisions. For example, they employ the Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) to simplify life cycle cost estimates; other tools are

Changes in Quality of Health Care Delivery after Vertical Integration.

PubMed

Carlin, Caroline S; Dowd, Bryan; Feldman, Roger

2015-08-01

To fill an empirical gap in the literature by examining changes in quality of care measures occurring when multispecialty clinic systems were acquired by hospital-owned, vertically integrated health care delivery systems in the Twin Cities area. Administrative data for health plan enrollees attributed to treatment and control clinic systems, merged with U.S. Census data. We compared changes in quality measures for health plan enrollees in the acquired clinics to enrollees in nine control groups using a differences-in-differences model. Our dataset spans 2 years prior to and 4 years after the acquisitions. We estimated probit models with errors clustered within enrollees. Data were assembled by the health plan's informatics team. Vertical integration is associated with increased rates of colorectal and cervical cancer screening and more appropriate emergency department use. The probability of ambulatory care-sensitive admissions increased when the acquisition caused disruption in admitting patterns. Moving a clinic system into a vertically integrated delivery system resulted in limited increases in quality of care indicators. Caution is warranted when the acquisition causes disruption in referral patterns. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

An ALE meta-analysis on the audiovisual integration of speech signals.

PubMed

Erickson, Laura C; Heeg, Elizabeth; Rauschecker, Josef P; Turkeltaub, Peter E

2014-11-01

The brain improves speech processing through the integration of audiovisual (AV) signals. Situations involving AV speech integration may be crudely dichotomized into those where auditory and visual inputs contain (1) equivalent, complementary signals (validating AV speech) or (2) inconsistent, different signals (conflicting AV speech). This simple framework may allow the systematic examination of broad commonalities and differences between AV neural processes engaged by various experimental paradigms frequently used to study AV speech integration. We conducted an activation likelihood estimation metaanalysis of 22 functional imaging studies comprising 33 experiments, 311 subjects, and 347 foci examining "conflicting" versus "validating" AV speech. Experimental paradigms included content congruency, timing synchrony, and perceptual measures, such as the McGurk effect or synchrony judgments, across AV speech stimulus types (sublexical to sentence). Colocalization of conflicting AV speech experiments revealed consistency across at least two contrast types (e.g., synchrony and congruency) in a network of dorsal stream regions in the frontal, parietal, and temporal lobes. There was consistency across all contrast types (synchrony, congruency, and percept) in the bilateral posterior superior/middle temporal cortex. Although fewer studies were available, validating AV speech experiments were localized to other regions, such as ventral stream visual areas in the occipital and inferior temporal cortex. These results suggest that while equivalent, complementary AV speech signals may evoke activity in regions related to the corroboration of sensory input, conflicting AV speech signals recruit widespread dorsal stream areas likely involved in the resolution of conflicting sensory signals. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Six sigma tools in integrating internal operations of a retail pharmacy: a case study.

PubMed

Kumar, Sameer; Kwong, Anthony M

2011-01-01

This study was initiated to integrate information and enterprise-wide healthcare delivery system issues specifically within an inpatient retail pharmacy operation in a U.S. community hospital. Six Sigma tools were used to examine the effects to an inpatient retail pharmacy service process. Some of the tools used include service blueprints, cause-effect diagram, gap analysis derived from customer and employee surveys, mistake proofing was applied in various business situations and results were analyzed to identify and propose process improvements and integration. The research indicates that the Six Sigma tools in this discussion are very applicable and quite effective in helping to streamline and integrate the pharmacy process flow. Additionally, gap analysis derived from two different surveys was used to estimate the primary areas of focus to increase customer and employee satisfaction. The results of this analysis were useful in initiating discussions of how to effectively narrow these service gaps. This retail pharmaceutical service study serves as a framework for the process that should occur for successful process improvement tool evaluation and implementation. Pharmaceutical Service operations in the U.S. that use this integration framework must tailor it to their individual situations to maximize their chances for success.

Monitoring Strategies for REDD+: Integrating Field, Airborne, and Satellite Observations of Amazon Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morton, Douglas; Souza, Carlos, Jr.; Souza, Carlos, Jr.; Keller, Michael

2012-01-01

Large-scale tropical forest monitoring efforts in support of REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus enhancing forest carbon stocks) confront a range of challenges. REDD+ activities typically have short reporting time scales, diverse data needs, and low tolerance for uncertainties. Meeting these challenges will require innovative use of remote sensing data, including integrating data at different spatial and temporal resolutions. The global scientific community is engaged in developing, evaluating, and applying new methods for regional to global scale forest monitoring. Pilot REDD+ activities are underway across the tropics with support from a range of national and international groups, including SilvaCarbon, an interagency effort to coordinate US expertise on forest monitoring and resource management. Early actions on REDD+ have exposed some of the inherent tradeoffs that arise from the use of incomplete or inaccurate data to quantify forest area changes and related carbon emissions. Here, we summarize recent advances in forest monitoring to identify and target the main sources of uncertainty in estimates of forest area changes, aboveground carbon stocks, and Amazon forest carbon emissions.

Quantitative analysis of vascular parameters for micro-CT imaging of vascular networks with multi-resolution.

PubMed

Zhao, Fengjun; Liang, Jimin; Chen, Xueli; Liu, Junting; Chen, Dongmei; Yang, Xiang; Tian, Jie

2016-03-01

Previous studies showed that all the vascular parameters from both the morphological and topological parameters were affected with the altering of imaging resolutions. However, neither the sensitivity analysis of the vascular parameters at multiple resolutions nor the distinguishability estimation of vascular parameters from different data groups has been discussed. In this paper, we proposed a quantitative analysis method of vascular parameters for vascular networks of multi-resolution, by analyzing the sensitivity of vascular parameters at multiple resolutions and estimating the distinguishability of vascular parameters from different data groups. Combining the sensitivity and distinguishability, we designed a hybrid formulation to estimate the integrated performance of vascular parameters in a multi-resolution framework. Among the vascular parameters, degree of anisotropy and junction degree were two insensitive parameters that were nearly irrelevant with resolution degradation; vascular area, connectivity density, vascular length, vascular junction and segment number were five parameters that could better distinguish the vascular networks from different groups and abide by the ground truth. Vascular area, connectivity density, vascular length and segment number not only were insensitive to multi-resolution but could also better distinguish vascular networks from different groups, which provided guidance for the quantification of the vascular networks in multi-resolution frameworks.

Environmental Public Health Survelliance for Exposure to Respiratory Health Hazards: A Joint NASA/CDC Project to Use Remote Sensing Data for Estimating Airborne Particulate Matter Over the Atlanta, Georgia Metropolitan Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Rickman, Douglas; Mohammad, Al-Hamdan; Crosson, William; Estes, Maurice, Jr.; Limaye, Ashutosh; Qualters, Judith

2008-01-01

Describes the public health surveillance efforts of NASA, in a joint effort with the Center for Disease Control (CDC). NASA/MSFC and the CDC are partners in linking nvironmental and health data to enhance public health surveillance. The use of NASA technology creates value - added geospatial products from existing environmental data sources to facilitate public health linkages. The venture sought to provide remote sensing data for the 5-country Metro-Atlanta area and to integrate this environmental data with public health data into a local network, in an effort to prevent and control environmentally related health effects. Remote sensing data used environmental data (Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] Air Quality System [AQS] ground measurements and MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth [AOD]) to estimate airborne particulate matter over Atlanta, and linked this data with health data related to asthma. The study proved the feasibility of linking environmental data (MODIS particular matter estimates and AQS) with health data (asthma). Algorithms were developed for QC, bias removal, merging MODIS and AQS particulate matter data, as well as for other applications. Additionally, a Business Associate Agreement was negotiated for a health care provider to enable sharing of Protected Health Information.

Integrating occurrence and detectability patterns based on interview data: a case study for threatened mammals in Equatorial Guinea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martínez-Martí, Chele; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Royle, J. Andrew; Palazón, José A.; Calvo, José F.

2016-01-01

Occurrence models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly used for estimating geographical range, for determining species-landscape relations and to prioritize conservation actions worldwide. In 2010, we conducted a large-scale survey in Río Muni, the mainland territory of Equatorial Guinea, which aimed to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and detection of threatened mammals based on environmental covariates, and to identify priority areas for conservation. Interviews with hunters were designed to record presence/absence data of seven species (golden cat, leopard, forest elephant, forest buffalo, western gorilla, chimpanzee and mandrill) in 225 sites throughout the region. We fitted single season occupancy models and recently developed models which also include false positive errors (i.e. species detected in places where it actually does not occur), which should provide more accurate estimates for most species, which are susceptible to mis-identification. Golden cat and leopard had the lowest occurrence rates in the region, whereas primates had the highest rates. All species, except gorilla, were affected negatively by human settlements. The southern half of Río Muni showed the highest occurrence of the species studied, and conservation strategies for ensuring the persistence of threatened mammals should be focused on this area.

Integrating occurrence and detectability patterns based on interview data: a case study for threatened mammals in Equatorial Guinea.

PubMed

Martínez-Martí, Chele; Jiménez-Franco, María V; Royle, J Andrew; Palazón, José A; Calvo, José F

2016-09-26

Occurrence models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly used for estimating geographical range, for determining species-landscape relations and to prioritize conservation actions worldwide. In 2010, we conducted a large-scale survey in Río Muni, the mainland territory of Equatorial Guinea, which aimed to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and detection of threatened mammals based on environmental covariates, and to identify priority areas for conservation. Interviews with hunters were designed to record presence/absence data of seven species (golden cat, leopard, forest elephant, forest buffalo, western gorilla, chimpanzee and mandrill) in 225 sites throughout the region. We fitted single season occupancy models and recently developed models which also include false positive errors (i.e. species detected in places where it actually does not occur), which should provide more accurate estimates for most species, which are susceptible to mis-identification. Golden cat and leopard had the lowest occurrence rates in the region, whereas primates had the highest rates. All species, except gorilla, were affected negatively by human settlements. The southern half of Río Muni showed the highest occurrence of the species studied, and conservation strategies for ensuring the persistence of threatened mammals should be focused on this area.

Integrating occurrence and detectability patterns based on interview data: a case study for threatened mammals in Equatorial Guinea

PubMed Central

Martínez-Martí, Chele; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Royle, J. Andrew; Palazón, José A.; Calvo, José F.

2016-01-01

Occurrence models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly used for estimating geographical range, for determining species-landscape relations and to prioritize conservation actions worldwide. In 2010, we conducted a large-scale survey in Río Muni, the mainland territory of Equatorial Guinea, which aimed to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and detection of threatened mammals based on environmental covariates, and to identify priority areas for conservation. Interviews with hunters were designed to record presence/absence data of seven species (golden cat, leopard, forest elephant, forest buffalo, western gorilla, chimpanzee and mandrill) in 225 sites throughout the region. We fitted single season occupancy models and recently developed models which also include false positive errors (i.e. species detected in places where it actually does not occur), which should provide more accurate estimates for most species, which are susceptible to mis-identification. Golden cat and leopard had the lowest occurrence rates in the region, whereas primates had the highest rates. All species, except gorilla, were affected negatively by human settlements. The southern half of Río Muni showed the highest occurrence of the species studied, and conservation strategies for ensuring the persistence of threatened mammals should be focused on this area. PMID:27666671

Estimating erosion in a riverine watershed: Bayou Liberty-Tchefuncta River in Louisiana.

PubMed

Martin, August; Gunter, James T; Regens, James L

2003-01-01

GOAL, SCOPE, BACKGROUND: Sheet erosion from agricultural, forest and urban lands may increase stream sediment loads as well as transport other pollutants that adversely affect water quality, reduce agricultural and forest production, and increase infrastructure maintenance costs. This study uses spatial analysis techniques and a numerical modeling approach to predict areas with the greatest sheet erosion potential given different soils disturbance scenarios. A Geographic Information System (GIS) and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were used to estimate sheet erosion from 0.64 ha parcels of land within the watershed. The Soil Survey of St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana was digitized, required soil attributes entered into the GIS database, and slope factors determined for each 80 x 80 meter parcel in the watershed. The GIS/USLE model used series-specific erosion K factors, a rainfall factor of 89, and a GIS database of scenario-driven cropping and erosion control practice factors to estimate potential soil loss due to sheet erosion. A general trend of increased potential sheet erosion occurred for all land use categories (urban, agriculture/grasslands, forests) as soil disturbance increases from cropping, logging and construction activities. Modeling indicated that rapidly growing urban areas have the greatest potential for sheet erosion. Evergreen and mixed forests (production forest) had lower sheet erosion potentials; with deciduous forests (mostly riparian) having the least sheet erosion potential. Erosion estimates from construction activities may be overestimated because of the value chosen for the erosion control practice factor. This study illustrates the ease with which GIS can be integrated with the Universal Soil Loss Equation to identify areas with high sheet erosion potential for large scale management and policy decision making. The GIS/USLE modeling approach used in this study offers a quick and inexpensive tool for estimating sheet erosion within watersheds using publicly available information. This method can quickly identify discrete locations with relatively precise spatial boundaries (approximately 80 meter resolution) that have a high sheet erosion potential as well as areas where management interventions might be appropriate to prevent or ameliorate erosion.

The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

2018-01-01

Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas, and status of the species for the larger Bi-State.

PROMAB-GIS: A GIS based Tool for Estimating Runoff and Sediment Yield in running Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenewein, S.; Rinderer, M.; Ploner, A.; Sönser, T.

2003-04-01

In recent times settlements have expanded, traffic and tourist activities have increased in most alpine regions. As a consequence, on the one hand humans and goods are affected by natural hazard processes more often, while on the other hand the demand for protection by both technical constructions and planning measures carried out by public authorities is growing. This situation results in an ever stronger need of reproducibility, comparability, transparency of all methods applied in modern natural hazard management. As a contribution to a new way of coping this situation Promab-GIS Version 1.0 has been developed. Promab-Gis has been designed as a model for time- and space-dependent determination of both runoff and bedload transport in rivers of small alpine catchment areas. The estimation of the unit hydrograph relies upon the "rational formula" and the time-area curves of the watershed. The time area diagram is a graph of cumulative drainage area contributing to discharge at the watershed outlet within a specified time of travel. The sediment yield is estimated for each cell of the channel network by determining the actual process type (erosion, transport or accumulation). Two types of transport processes are considered, sediment transport and debris flows. All functions of Promab-GIS are integrated in the graphical user interface of ArcView as pull-up menus and tool buttons. Hence the application of Promab-GIS does not rely on a sophisticated knowledge of GIS in general, respectively the ArcView software. However, despite the use of computer assistance, Promab-GIS still is an expert support system. In order to obtain plausible results, the users must be familiar with all the relevant processes controlling runoff and sediment yield in torrent catchments.

[Microcytomorphometric video-image detection of nuclear chromatin in ovarian cancer].

PubMed

Grzonka, Dariusz; Kamiński, Kazimierz; Kaźmierczak, Wojciech

2003-09-01

Technology of detection of tissue preparates precisious evaluates contents of nuclear chromatine, largeness and shape of cellular nucleus, indicators of mitosis, DNA index, ploidy, phase-S fraction and other parameters. Methods of detection of picture are: microcytomorphometry video-image (MCMM-VI), flow, double flow and activated by fluorescence. Diagnostic methods of malignant neoplasm of ovary are still nonspecific and not precise, that is a reason of unsatisfied results of treatment. Evaluation of microcytomorphometric measurements of nuclear chromatine histopathologic tissue preparates (HP) of ovarian cancer and comparison to normal ovarian tissue. Estimated 10 paraffin embedded tissue preparates of serous ovarian cancer, 4 preparates mucinous cancer and 2 cases of tumor Kruckenberg patients operated in Clinic of Perinatology and Gynaecology Silesian Medical Academy in Zabrze in period 2001-2002, MCMM-VI estimation based on computer aided analysis system: microscope Axioscop 20, camera tv JVCTK-C 1380, CarlZeiss KS Vision 400 rel.3.0 software. Following MCMM-VI parameters assessed: count of pathologic nucleus, diameter of nucleus, area, min/max diameter ratio, equivalent circle diameter (Dcircle), mean of brightness (mean D), integrated optical density (IOD = area x mean D), DNA index and 2.5 c exceeding rate percentage (2.5 c ER%). MCMM-VI performed on the 160 areas of 16 preparates of cancer and 100 areas of normal ovarian tissue. Statistical analysis was performed by used t-Student test. We obtained stastistically significant higher values parameters of nuclear chromatine, DI, 2.5 c ER of mucinous cancer and tumor Kruckenberg comparison to serous cancer. MCMM-VI parameters of chromatine malignant ovarian neoplasm were statistically significantly higher than normal ovarian tissue. Cytometric and karyometric parametres of nuclear chromatine estimated MCMM-VI are useful in the diagnostics and prognosis of ovarian cancer.

Population size estimation of female sex workers in Iran: Synthesis of methods and results.

PubMed

Sharifi, Hamid; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Shokoohi, Mostafa; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; McFarland, Willi; Mirzazadeh, Ali

2017-01-01

Estimating the number of key populations at risk of HIV is essential for planning, monitoring, and evaluating prevention, care, and treatment programmes. We conducted this study to estimate the number of female sex workers (FSW) in major cities of Iran. We used three population size estimation methods (i.e., wisdom of the crowds, multiplier method, and network scale-up) to calculate the number of FSW in 13 cities in Iran. The wisdom of the crowds and multiplier methods were integrated into a nationwide bio-behavioural surveillance survey in 2015, and the network scale-up method was included in a national survey of the general population in 2014. The median of the three methods was used to calculate the proportion of the adult female population who practice sex work in the 13 cities. These figures were then extrapolated to provide a national population size estimation of FSW across urban areas. The population size of FSW was 91,500 (95% Uncertainty Intervals [UIs] 61,400-117,700), corresponding to 1.43% (95% UIs 0.96-1.84) of the adult (i.e., 15-49 year-old) female population living in these 13 cities. The projected numbers of FSW for all 31 provincial capital cities were 130,800 (95% UIs 87,800-168,200) and 228,700 (95% UIs 153,500-294,300) for all urban settings in Iran. Using methods of comparable rigor, our study provided a data-driven national estimate of the population size of FSW in urban areas of Iran. Our findings provide vital information for enhancing HIV programme planning and lay a foundation for assessing the impact of harm reduction efforts within this marginalized population.

Population size estimation of female sex workers in Iran: Synthesis of methods and results

PubMed Central

Sharifi, Hamid; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Shokoohi, Mostafa; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; McFarland, Willi

2017-01-01

Introduction Estimating the number of key populations at risk of HIV is essential for planning, monitoring, and evaluating prevention, care, and treatment programmes. We conducted this study to estimate the number of female sex workers (FSW) in major cities of Iran. Methods We used three population size estimation methods (i.e., wisdom of the crowds, multiplier method, and network scale-up) to calculate the number of FSW in 13 cities in Iran. The wisdom of the crowds and multiplier methods were integrated into a nationwide bio-behavioural surveillance survey in 2015, and the network scale-up method was included in a national survey of the general population in 2014. The median of the three methods was used to calculate the proportion of the adult female population who practice sex work in the 13 cities. These figures were then extrapolated to provide a national population size estimation of FSW across urban areas. Results The population size of FSW was 91,500 (95% Uncertainty Intervals [UIs] 61,400–117,700), corresponding to 1.43% (95% UIs 0.96–1.84) of the adult (i.e., 15–49 year-old) female population living in these 13 cities. The projected numbers of FSW for all 31 provincial capital cities were 130,800 (95% UIs 87,800–168,200) and 228,700 (95% UIs 153,500–294,300) for all urban settings in Iran. Conclusions Using methods of comparable rigor, our study provided a data-driven national estimate of the population size of FSW in urban areas of Iran. Our findings provide vital information for enhancing HIV programme planning and lay a foundation for assessing the impact of harm reduction efforts within this marginalized population. PMID:28796847

Recov'Heat: An estimation tool of urban waste heat recovery potential in sustainable cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goumba, Alain; Chiche, Samuel; Guo, Xiaofeng; Colombert, Morgane; Bonneau, Patricia

2017-02-01

Waste heat recovery is considered as an efficient way to increase carbon-free green energy utilization and to reduce greenhouse gas emission. Especially in urban area, several sources such as sewage water, industrial process, waste incinerator plants, etc., are still rarely explored. Their integration into a district heating system providing heating and/or domestic hot water could be beneficial for both energy companies and local governments. EFFICACITY, a French research institute focused on urban energy transition, has developed an estimation tool for different waste heat sources potentially explored in a sustainable city. This article presents the development method of such a decision making tool which, by giving both energetic and economic analysis, helps local communities and energy service companies to make preliminary studies in heat recovery projects.

Advances in spatial epidemiology and geographic information systems.

PubMed

Kirby, Russell S; Delmelle, Eric; Eberth, Jan M

2017-01-01

The field of spatial epidemiology has evolved rapidly in the past 2 decades. This study serves as a brief introduction to spatial epidemiology and the use of geographic information systems in applied research in epidemiology. We highlight technical developments and highlight opportunities to apply spatial analytic methods in epidemiologic research, focusing on methodologies involving geocoding, distance estimation, residential mobility, record linkage and data integration, spatial and spatio-temporal clustering, small area estimation, and Bayesian applications to disease mapping. The articles included in this issue incorporate many of these methods into their study designs and analytical frameworks. It is our hope that these studies will spur further development and utilization of spatial analysis and geographic information systems in epidemiologic research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the velocity and trajectory of three-dimensional reaching movements from non-invasive magnetoencephalography signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeom, Hong Gi; Sic Kim, June; Chung, Chun Kee

2013-04-01

Objective. Studies on the non-invasive brain-machine interface that controls prosthetic devices via movement intentions are at their very early stages. Here, we aimed to estimate three-dimensional arm movements using magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals with high accuracy. Approach. Whole-head MEG signals were acquired during three-dimensional reaching movements (center-out paradigm). For movement decoding, we selected 68 MEG channels in motor-related areas, which were band-pass filtered using four subfrequency bands (0.5-8, 9-22, 25-40 and 57-97 Hz). After the filtering, the signals were resampled, and 11 data points preceding the current data point were used as features for estimating velocity. Multiple linear regressions were used to estimate movement velocities. Movement trajectories were calculated by integrating estimated velocities. We evaluated our results by calculating correlation coefficients (r) between real and estimated velocities. Main results. Movement velocities could be estimated from the low-frequency MEG signals (0.5-8 Hz) with significant and considerably high accuracy (p <0.001, mean r > 0.7). We also showed that preceding (60-140 ms) MEG signals are important to estimate current movement velocities and the intervals of brain signals of 200-300 ms are sufficient for movement estimation. Significance. These results imply that disabled people will be able to control prosthetic devices without surgery in the near future.

Estimating aboveground forest biomass carbon and fire consumption in the U.S. Utah High Plateaus using data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program, Landsat, and LANDFIRE

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Xuexia; Liu, Shuguang; Zhu, Zhiliang; Vogelmann, James E.; Li, Zhengpeng; Ohlen, Donald O.

2011-01-01

The concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and greatly affecting global climate and socio-economic systems. Actively growing forests are generally considered to be a major carbon sink, but forest wildfires lead to large releases of biomass carbon into the atmosphere. Aboveground forest biomass carbon (AFBC), an important ecological indicator, and fire-induced carbon emissions at regional scales are highly relevant to forest sustainable management and climate change. It is challenging to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of AFBC across large areas because of the spatial heterogeneity of forest cover types and canopy structure. In this study, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, Landsat, and Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project (LANDFIRE) data were integrated in a regression tree model for estimating AFBC at a 30-m resolution in the Utah High Plateaus. AFBC were calculated from 225 FIA field plots and used as the dependent variable in the model. Of these plots, 10% were held out for model evaluation with stratified random sampling, and the other 90% were used as training data to develop the regression tree model. Independent variable layers included Landsat imagery and the derived spectral indicators, digital elevation model (DEM) data and derivatives, biophysical gradient data, existing vegetation cover type and vegetation structure. The cross-validation correlation coefficient (r value) was 0.81 for the training model. Independent validation using withheld plot data was similar with r value of 0.82. This validated regression tree model was applied to map AFBC in the Utah High Plateaus and then combined with burn severity information to estimate loss of AFBC in the Longston fire of Zion National Park in 2001. The final dataset represented 24 forest cover types for a 4 million ha forested area. We estimated a total of 353 Tg AFBC with an average of 87 MgC/ha in the Utah High Plateaus. We also estimated that 8054 Mg AFBC were released from 2.24 km2 burned forest area in the Longston fire. These results demonstrate that an AFBC spatial map and estimated biomass carbon consumption can readily be generated using existing database. The methodology provides a consistent, practical, and inexpensive way for estimating AFBC at 30-m resolution over large areas throughout the United States.

Identifying Optimal Temporal Scale for the Correlation of AOD and Ground Measurements of PM2.5 to Improve the Model Performance in a Real-time Air Quality Estimation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Hui; Faruque, Fazlay; Williams, Worth; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Crosson, William; Rickman, Douglas; Limaye, Ashutosh

2009-01-01

Aerosol optical depth (AOD), an indirect estimate of particle matter using satellite observations, has shown great promise in improving estimates of PM 2.5 air quality surface. Currently, few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve the model accuracy of PM 2.5 surface estimation in a real-time air quality system. We believe that two major aspects may be worthy of consideration in that area: 1) the approach to integrate satellite measurements with ground measurements in the pollution estimation, and 2) identification of an optimal temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground measurements. This paper is focused on the second aspect on the identifying the optimal temporal scale to correlate AOD with PM2.5. Five following different temporal scales were chosen to evaluate their impact on the model performance: 1) within the last 3 days, 2) within the last 10 days, 3) within the last 30 days, 4) within the last 90 days, and 5) the time period with the highest correlation in a year. The model performance is evaluated for its accuracy, bias, and errors based on the following selected statistics: the Mean Bias, the Normalized Mean Bias, the Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Mean Error, and the Index of Agreement. This research shows that the model with the temporal scale of within the last 30 days displays the best model performance in this study area using 2004 and 2005 data sets.

Optimal distribution of integration time for intensity measurements in Stokes polarimetry.

PubMed

Li, Xiaobo; Liu, Tiegen; Huang, Bingjing; Song, Zhanjie; Hu, Haofeng

2015-10-19

We consider the typical Stokes polarimetry system, which performs four intensity measurements to estimate a Stokes vector. We show that if the total integration time of intensity measurements is fixed, the variance of the Stokes vector estimator depends on the distribution of the integration time at four intensity measurements. Therefore, by optimizing the distribution of integration time, the variance of the Stokes vector estimator can be decreased. In this paper, we obtain the closed-form solution of the optimal distribution of integration time by employing Lagrange multiplier method. According to the theoretical analysis and real-world experiment, it is shown that the total variance of the Stokes vector estimator can be significantly decreased about 40% in the case discussed in this paper. The method proposed in this paper can effectively decrease the measurement variance and thus statistically improves the measurement accuracy of the polarimetric system.

Optimal distribution of integration time for intensity measurements in degree of linear polarization polarimetry.

PubMed

Li, Xiaobo; Hu, Haofeng; Liu, Tiegen; Huang, Bingjing; Song, Zhanjie

2016-04-04

We consider the degree of linear polarization (DOLP) polarimetry system, which performs two intensity measurements at orthogonal polarization states to estimate DOLP. We show that if the total integration time of intensity measurements is fixed, the variance of the DOLP estimator depends on the distribution of integration time for two intensity measurements. Therefore, by optimizing the distribution of integration time, the variance of the DOLP estimator can be decreased. In this paper, we obtain the closed-form solution of the optimal distribution of integration time in an approximate way by employing Delta method and Lagrange multiplier method. According to the theoretical analyses and real-world experiments, it is shown that the variance of the DOLP estimator can be decreased for any value of DOLP. The method proposed in this paper can effectively decrease the measurement variance and thus statistically improve the measurement accuracy of the polarimetry system.

Economic susceptibility of fire-prone landscapes in natural protected areas of the southern Andean Range.

PubMed

Molina, Juan Ramón; Moreno, Roberto; Castillo, Miguel; Rodríguez Y Silva, Francisco

2018-04-01

Large fires are the most important disturbances at landscape-level due to their ecological and socioeconomic impacts. This study aimed to develop an approach for the assessment of the socio-economic landscape susceptibility to fire. Our methodology focuses on the integration of economic components of landscape management based on contingent valuation method (CVM) and net-value change (NVC). This former component has been estimated using depreciation rates or changes on the number of arrivals to different natural protected areas after a large fire occurrence. Landscape susceptibility concept has been motivated by the need to assist fire prevention programs and environmental management. There was a remarkable variation in annual economic value attributed to each protected area based on the CVM scenario, ranging from 40,189-46,887$/year ("Tolhuaca National Park") to 241,000-341,953$/year ("Conguillio National Park"). We added landscape susceptibility using depreciation rates or tourist arrival decrease which varied from 2.04% (low fire intensity in "Tolhuaca National Park") to 76.67% (high fire intensity in "Conguillio National Park"). The integration of this approach and future studies about vegetation resilience should seek management strategies to increase economic efficiency in the fire prevention activities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating Landholders’ Probability of Participating in a Stewardship Program, and the Implications for Spatial Conservation Priorities

PubMed Central

Adams, Vanessa M.; Pressey, Robert L.; Stoeckl, Natalie

2014-01-01

The need to integrate social and economic factors into conservation planning has become a focus of academic discussions and has important practical implications for the implementation of conservation areas, both private and public. We conducted a survey in the Daly Catchment, Northern Territory, to inform the design and implementation of a stewardship payment program. We used a choice model to estimate the likely level of participation in two legal arrangements - conservation covenants and management agreements - based on payment level and proportion of properties required to be managed. We then spatially predicted landholders’ probability of participating at the resolution of individual properties and incorporated these predictions into conservation planning software to examine the potential for the stewardship program to meet conservation objectives. We found that the properties that were least costly, per unit area, to manage were also the least likely to participate. This highlights a tension between planning for a cost-effective program and planning for a program that targets properties with the highest probability of participation. PMID:24892520

Racial Differences in Perceptions of Air Pollution Health Risk: Does Environmental Exposure Matter?

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Jayajit; Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E.; Maldonado, Alejandra

2017-01-01

This article extends environmental risk perception research by exploring how potential health risk from exposure to industrial and vehicular air pollutants, as well as other contextual and socio-demographic factors, influence racial/ethnic differences in air pollution health risk perception. Our study site is the Greater Houston metropolitan area, Texas, USA—a racially/ethnically diverse area facing high levels of exposure to pollutants from both industrial and transportation sources. We integrate primary household-level survey data with estimates of excess cancer risk from ambient exposure to industrial and on-road mobile source emissions of air toxics obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Statistical analysis is based on multivariate generalized estimation equation models which account for geographic clustering of surveyed households. Our results reveal significantly higher risk perceptions for non-Hispanic Black residents and those exposed to greater cancer risk from industrial pollutants, and also indicate that gender influences the relationship between race/ethnicity and air pollution risk perception. These findings highlight the need to incorporate measures of environmental health risk exposure in future analysis of social disparities in risk perception. PMID:28125059

Toward irrigation retrieval by combining multi-sensor remote sensing data into a land surface model over a semi-arid region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malbéteau, Y.; Lopez, O.; Houborg, R.; McCabe, M.

2017-12-01

Agriculture places considerable pressure on water resources, with the relationship between water availability and food production being critical for sustaining population growth. Monitoring water resources is particularly important in arid and semi-arid regions, where irrigation can represent up to 80% of the consumptive uses of water. In this context, it is necessary to optimize on-farm irrigation management by adjusting irrigation to crop water requirements throughout the growing season. However, in situ point measurements are not routinely available over extended areas and may not be representative at the field scale. Remote sensing approaches present as a cost-effective technique for mapping and monitoring broad areas. By taking advantage of multi-sensor remote sensing methodologies, such as those provided by MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel and Cubesats, we propose a new method to estimate irrigation input at pivot-scale. Here we explore the development of crop-water use estimates via these remote sensing data and integrate them into a land surface modeling framework, using a farm in Saudi Arabia as a demonstration of what can be achieved at larger scales.

Sequential estimation of surface water mass changes from daily satellite gravimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramillien, G. L.; Frappart, F.; Gratton, S.; Vasseur, X.

2015-03-01

We propose a recursive Kalman filtering approach to map regional spatio-temporal variations of terrestrial water mass over large continental areas, such as South America. Instead of correcting hydrology model outputs by the GRACE observations using a Kalman filter estimation strategy, regional 2-by-2 degree water mass solutions are constructed by integration of daily potential differences deduced from GRACE K-band range rate (KBRR) measurements. Recovery of regional water mass anomaly averages obtained by accumulation of information of daily noise-free simulated GRACE data shows that convergence is relatively fast and yields accurate solutions. In the case of cumulating real GRACE KBRR data contaminated by observational noise, the sequential method of step-by-step integration provides estimates of water mass variation for the period 2004-2011 by considering a set of suitable a priori error uncertainty parameters to stabilize the inversion. Spatial and temporal averages of the Kalman filter solutions over river basin surfaces are consistent with the ones computed using global monthly/10-day GRACE solutions from official providers CSR, GFZ and JPL. They are also highly correlated to in situ records of river discharges (70-95 %), especially for the Obidos station where the total outflow of the Amazon River is measured. The sparse daily coverage of the GRACE satellite tracks limits the time resolution of the regional Kalman filter solutions, and thus the detection of short-term hydrological events.

On the calculation of the absolute grand potential of confined smectic-A phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chien-Cheng; Baus, Marc; Ryckaert, Jean-Paul

2015-09-01

We determine the absolute grand potential Λ along a confined smectic-A branch of a calamitic liquid crystal system enclosed in a slit pore of transverse area A and width L, using the rod-rod Gay-Berne potential and a rod-wall potential favouring perpendicular orientation at the walls. For a confined phase with an integer number of smectic layers sandwiched between the opposite walls, we obtain the excess properties (excess grand potential Λexc, solvation force fs and adsorption Γ) with respect to the bulk phase at the same μ (chemical potential) and T (temperature) state point. While usual thermodynamic integration methods are used along the confined smectic branch to estimate the grand potential difference as μ is varied at fixed L, T, the absolute grand potential at one reference state point is obtained via the evaluation of the absolute Helmholtz free energy in the (N, L, A, T) canonical ensemble. It proceeds via a sequence of free energy difference estimations involving successively the cost of localising rods on layers and the switching on of a one-dimensional harmonic field to keep layers integrity coupled to the elimination of inter-layers and wall interactions. The absolute free energy of the resulting set of fully independent layers of interacting rods is finally estimated via the existing procedures. This work opens the way to the computer simulation study of phase transitions implying confined layered phases.

Decentralized Multisensory Information Integration in Neural Systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Wen-Hao; Chen, Aihua; Rasch, Malte J; Wu, Si

2016-01-13

How multiple sensory cues are integrated in neural circuitry remains a challenge. The common hypothesis is that information integration might be accomplished in a dedicated multisensory integration area receiving feedforward inputs from the modalities. However, recent experimental evidence suggests that it is not a single multisensory brain area, but rather many multisensory brain areas that are simultaneously involved in the integration of information. Why many mutually connected areas should be needed for information integration is puzzling. Here, we investigated theoretically how information integration could be achieved in a distributed fashion within a network of interconnected multisensory areas. Using biologically realistic neural network models, we developed a decentralized information integration system that comprises multiple interconnected integration areas. Studying an example of combining visual and vestibular cues to infer heading direction, we show that such a decentralized system is in good agreement with anatomical evidence and experimental observations. In particular, we show that this decentralized system can integrate information optimally. The decentralized system predicts that optimally integrated information should emerge locally from the dynamics of the communication between brain areas and sheds new light on the interpretation of the connectivity between multisensory brain areas. To extract information reliably from ambiguous environments, the brain integrates multiple sensory cues, which provide different aspects of information about the same entity of interest. Here, we propose a decentralized architecture for multisensory integration. In such a system, no processor is in the center of the network topology and information integration is achieved in a distributed manner through reciprocally connected local processors. Through studying the inference of heading direction with visual and vestibular cues, we show that the decentralized system can integrate information optimally, with the reciprocal connections between processers determining the extent of cue integration. Our model reproduces known multisensory integration behaviors observed in experiments and sheds new light on our understanding of how information is integrated in the brain. Copyright © 2016 Zhang et al.

Decentralized Multisensory Information Integration in Neural Systems

PubMed Central

Zhang, Wen-hao; Chen, Aihua

2016-01-01

How multiple sensory cues are integrated in neural circuitry remains a challenge. The common hypothesis is that information integration might be accomplished in a dedicated multisensory integration area receiving feedforward inputs from the modalities. However, recent experimental evidence suggests that it is not a single multisensory brain area, but rather many multisensory brain areas that are simultaneously involved in the integration of information. Why many mutually connected areas should be needed for information integration is puzzling. Here, we investigated theoretically how information integration could be achieved in a distributed fashion within a network of interconnected multisensory areas. Using biologically realistic neural network models, we developed a decentralized information integration system that comprises multiple interconnected integration areas. Studying an example of combining visual and vestibular cues to infer heading direction, we show that such a decentralized system is in good agreement with anatomical evidence and experimental observations. In particular, we show that this decentralized system can integrate information optimally. The decentralized system predicts that optimally integrated information should emerge locally from the dynamics of the communication between brain areas and sheds new light on the interpretation of the connectivity between multisensory brain areas. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To extract information reliably from ambiguous environments, the brain integrates multiple sensory cues, which provide different aspects of information about the same entity of interest. Here, we propose a decentralized architecture for multisensory integration. In such a system, no processor is in the center of the network topology and information integration is achieved in a distributed manner through reciprocally connected local processors. Through studying the inference of heading direction with visual and vestibular cues, we show that the decentralized system can integrate information optimally, with the reciprocal connections between processers determining the extent of cue integration. Our model reproduces known multisensory integration behaviors observed in experiments and sheds new light on our understanding of how information is integrated in the brain. PMID:26758843

GLANCE - calculatinG heaLth impActs of atmospheric pollutioN in a Changing climatE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Leif; Faria, Sérgio; Markandya, Anil

2016-04-01

Current annual global estimates of premature deaths from poor air quality are estimated in the range of 2.6-4.4 million, and 2050 projections are expected to double against 2010 levels. In Europe, annual economic burdens are estimated at around 750 bn €. Climate change will further exacerbate air pollution burdens; therefore, a better understanding of the economic impacts on human societies has become an area of intense investigation. European research efforts are being carried out within the MACC project series, which started in 2005. The outcome of this work has been integrated into a European capacity for Earth Observation, the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). In MACC/CAMS, key pollutant concentrations are computed at the European scale and globally by employing chemically-driven advanced transport models. The project GLANCE (calculatinG heaLth impActs of atmospheric pollutioN in a Changing climatE) aims at developing an integrated assessment model for calculating the health impacts and damage costs of air pollution at different physical scales. It combines MACC/CAMS (assimilated Earth Observations, an ensemble of chemical transport models and state of the art ECWMF weather forecasting) with downscaling based on in-situ network measurements. The strengthening of modelled projections through integration with empirical evidence reduces errors and uncertainties in the health impact projections and subsequent economic cost assessment. In addition, GLANCE will yield improved data accuracy at different time resolutions. This project is a multidisciplinary approach which brings together expertise from natural sciences and socio economic fields. Here, its general approach will be presented together with first results for the years 2007 - 2012 on the European scale. The results on health impacts and economic burdens are compared to existing assessments.

Economic Impacts from PM2.5 Pollution-Related Health Effects: A Case Study in Shanghai.

PubMed

Wu, Rui; Dai, Hancheng; Geng, Yong; Xie, Yang; Masui, Toshihiko; Liu, Zhiqing; Qian, Yiying

2017-05-02

PM 2.5 pollution-related diseases cause additional medical expenses and work time loss, leading to macroeconomic impact in high PM 2.5 concentration areas. Previous economic impact assessments of air pollution focused on benefits from environmental regulations while ignoring climate policies. In this study, we examine the health and economic impacts from PM 2.5 pollution under various air pollution control strategies and climate policies scenarios in the megacity of Shanghai. The estimation adopts an integrated model combining a Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, exposure-response functions (ERFs), and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that without control measures, Shanghai's mortality caused by PM 2.5 pollution are estimated to be 192 400 cases in 2030 and the work time loss to be 72.1 h/cap annually. The corresponding GDP values and welfare losses would be approximately 2.26% and 3.14%, respectively. With an estimated control cost of 0.76% of local GDP, Shanghai would gain approximately 1.01% of local GDP through local air pollution control measures and climate policies. Furthermore, the application of multiregional integrated control strategies in neighboring provinces would be the most effective in reducing PM 2.5 concentration in Shanghai, leading to only 0.34% of GDP loss. At the sectoral level, labor-intensive sectors suffer more output loss from PM 2.5 pollution. Sectors with the highest control costs include power generation, iron and steel, and transport. The results indicate that the combination of multiregional integrated air pollution control strategies and climate policies would be cost-beneficial for Shanghai.

Sarcoptes-World Molecular Network (Sarcoptes-WMN): integrating research on scabies.

PubMed

Alasaad, Samer; Walton, Shelley; Rossi, Luca; Bornstein, Set; Abu-Madi, Marawan; Soriguer, Ramón C; Fitzgerald, Scott; Zhu, Xing-Quan; Zimmermann, Werner; Ugbomoiko, Uade Samuel; Pei, Kurtis Jai-Chyi; Heukelbach, Jörg

2011-05-01

Parasites threaten human and animal health globally. It is estimated that more than 60% of people on planet Earth carry at least one parasite, many of them several different species. Unfortunately, parasite studies suffer from duplications and inconsistencies between different investigator groups. Hence, groups need to collaborate in an integrated manner in areas including parasite control, improved therapy strategies, diagnostic and surveillance tools, and public awareness. Parasite studies will be better served if there is coordinated management of field data and samples across multidisciplinary approach plans, among academic and non-academic organizations worldwide. In this paper we report the first 'Living organism-World Molecular Network', with the cooperation of 167 parasitologists from 88 countries on all continents. This integrative approach, the 'Sarcoptes-World Molecular Network', seeks to harmonize Sarcoptes epidemiology, diagnosis, treatment, and molecular studies from all over the world, with the aim of decreasing mite infestations in humans and animals. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Short Tutorial on Inertial Navigation System and Global Positioning System Integration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smalling, Kyle M.; Eure, Kenneth W.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this document is to describe a simple method of integrating Inertial Navigation System (INS) information with Global Positioning System (GPS) information for an improved estimate of vehicle attitude and position. A simple two dimensional (2D) case is considered. The attitude estimates are derived from sensor data and used in the estimation of vehicle position and velocity through dead reckoning within the INS. The INS estimates are updated with GPS estimates using a Kalman filter. This tutorial is intended for the novice user with a focus on bringing the reader from raw sensor measurements to an integrated position and attitude estimate. An application is given using a remotely controlled ground vehicle operating in assumed 2D environment. The theory is developed first followed by an illustrative example.

Development of systems for detection, early warning, and control of pipeline leakage in drinking water distribution: a case study.

PubMed

Li, Weifeng; Ling, Wencui; Liu, Suoxiang; Zhao, Jing; Liu, Ruiping; Chen, Qiuwen; Qiang, Zhimin; Qu, Jiuhui

2011-01-01

Water leakage in drinking water distribution systems is a serious problem for many cities and a huge challenge for water utilities. An integrated system for the detection, early warning, and control of pipeline leakage has been developed and successfully used to manage the pipeline networks in selected areas of Beijing. A method based on the geographic information system has been proposed to quickly and automatically optimize the layout of the instruments which detect leaks. Methods are also proposed to estimate the probability of each pipe segment leaking (on the basis of historic leakage data), and to assist in locating the leakage points (based on leakage signals). The district metering area (DMA) strategy is used. Guidelines and a flowchart for establishing a DMA to manage the large-scale looped networks in Beijing are proposed. These different functions have been implemented into a central software system to simplify the day-to-day use of the system. In 2007 the system detected 102 non-obvious leakages (i.e., 14.2% of the total detected in Beijing) in the selected areas, which was estimated to save a total volume of 2,385,000 m3 of water. These results indicate the feasibility, efficiency and wider applicability of this system.

The global abundance and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Downing, J.A.; Prairie, Y.T.; Cole, J.J.; Duarte, C.M.; Tranvik, L.J.; Striegl, Robert G.; McDowell, W.H.; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Caraco, N.F.; Melack, J.M.; Middelburg, J.J.

2006-01-01

One of the major impediments to the integration of lentic ecosystems into global environmental analyses has been fragmentary data on the extent and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments. We use new data sources, enhanced spatial resolution, and new analytical approaches to provide new estimates of the global abundance of surface-water bodies. A global model based on the Pareto distribution shows that the global extent of natural lakes is twice as large as previously known (304 million lakes; 4.2 million km 2 in area) and is dominated in area by millions of water bodies smaller than 1 km2. Similar analyses of impoundments based on inventories of large, engineered dams show that impounded waters cover approximately 0.26 million km2. However, construction of low-tech farm impoundments is estimated to be between 0.1 % and 6% of farm area worldwide, dependent upon precipitation, and represents >77,000 km 2 globally, at present. Overall, about 4.6 million km2 of the earth's continental "land" surface (>3%) is covered by water. These analyses underscore the importance of explicitly considering lakes, ponds, and impoundments, especially small ones, in global analyses of rates and processes. ?? 2006, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

Integration of ground and satellite data to estimate the forest carbon fluxes of a Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiesi, M.; Maselli, F.; Moriondo, M.; Fibbi, L.; Bindi, M.; Running, S. W.

2009-04-01

The current paper reports on the development and testing of a methodology capable of simulating the main terms of forest carbon budget (gross primary production, GPP, net primary production, NPP, and net ecosystem exchange, NEE) in the Mediterranean environment. The study area is Tuscany, a region of Central Italy which is covered by forests over about half of its surface. It is peculiar for its extremely heterogeneous morphological and climatic features which ranges from typically Mediterranean to temperate warm or cool according to the altitudinal and latitudinal gradients and the distance from the sea (Rapetti and Vittorini, 1995). The simulation of forest carbon budget is based on the preliminary collection of several data layers to characterize the eco-climatic and forest features of the region (i.e. maps of forest type and volume, daily meteorological data and monthly NDVI-derived FAPAR - fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation - estimates for the years 1999-2003). In particular, the 1:250.000 forest type map describes the distribution of 18 forest classes and was obtained by the Regional Cartographic Service. The volume map, with a 30 m spatial resolution and a mean accuracy of about 90 m3/ha, was produced by combining the available regional forest inventory data and Landsat TM images (Maselli and Chiesi, 2006). Daily meteorological data (minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation) were extrapolated by the use of the DAYMET algorithm (Thornton et al., 1997) from measurements taken at existing whether stations for the years 1996-2003 (calibration plus application periods); solar radiation was then estimated by the model MT-CLIM (Thornton et al., 2000). Monthly NDVI-derived FAPAR estimates were obtained using the Spot-VEGETATION satellite sensor data for the whole study period (1999-2003). After the collection of these data layers, a simplified, remote sensing based parametric model (C-Fix), is applied for the production of a reference series of monthly gross primary production (GPP) estimates. In particular this model estimates forest GPP as function of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by vegetation (Veroustraete et al., 2002) combined with ground based estimates of incoming solar radiation and air temperature. These GPP values are used as reference data to both calibrate and integrate the functions of a more complex bio-geochemical model, BIOME-BGC, which is capable of simulating all main ecosystem processes. This model requires: daily climate data, information on the general environment (i.e. soil, vegetation and site conditions) and parameters describing the ecophysiological characteristics of vegetation. Both C-Fix and BIOME-BGC compute GPP as an expression of total, or potential, productivity of an ecosystem in equilibrium with the environment. This makes the GPP estimates of the two models practically inter-comparable and opens the possibility of using the more accurate GPP estimates of C-Fix to both calibrate BIOME-BGC and stabilize its outputs (Chiesi et al., 2007). In particular, by integrating BIOME-BGC respiration estimates to those of C-Fix, forest fluxes for the entire region are obtained, which are referable to ecosystems at equilibrium (climax) condition. These estimates are converted into NPP and NEE of real forests relying on a specifically developed conceptual framework which uses the ratio of actual over potential stand volume as indicator of ecosystem distance from climax. The accuracy of the estimated net carbon exchanges is finally evaluated against ground data derived from a recent forest inventory and from two eddy covariance flux towers located in Tuscany (San Rossore and Lecceto). The results of both these comparisons were quite positive, indicating the good capability of the method for forest carbon flux estimation in Mediterranean areas.

Development of Preliminary Remediation Goals for Indoor Dust at the Colonie FUSRAP Site - 12273

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watters, David J.; Opdyke, Clifford P.; Moore, James T.

2012-07-01

The Colonie FUSRAP Site is located in the Town of Colonie, Albany County, New York. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is currently addressing environmental contamination associated with the Site under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) process as part of the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Soil remediation activities have been substantially completed at the Colonie FUSRAP Site and its vicinity properties under the FUSRAP. A study unrelated to FUSRAP was recently performed by an independent party to establish the distribution of DU contamination in various media in the environs of the Site. Asmore » part of this study, dust samples were collected in residencies and businesses in the immediate vicinity of the Site. These samples were collected in non-living areas such as basement window sills and garages. Many of these samples tested positive for DU. An assessment was performed to establish preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) for indoor dust in non-living areas of residential homes and businesses in the vicinity of the Site. The results of this assessment provide estimates of dose-based, carcinogenic risk-based, and noncarcinogenic-based PRGs derived from a hypothetical exposure scenario with reasonable levels of conservatism. Ultimately, the PRGs will be compared to results of dust sampling and analyses in residences and businesses in proximity of the Site to determine whether a response action is appropriate. This assessment estimates PRGs for DU contaminated dust in non-living areas of residences in the vicinity of the Colonie FUSRAP site based on a reasonably conservative exposure scenario. Estimated PRGs based on residential receptors are considered to be conservatively representative of workers in nearby businesses based on the considerably longer exposure duration of residents relative to workers. This assessment provides reasonably conservative estimates of PRGs for DU contaminated dust in non-living areas within residences in the vicinity of the Site. It should be noted that the PRGs include hypothetical exposures resulting from activities in both the living areas and non-living areas of a residence. The PRGs are derived and presented in terms of DU dust concentration in non-living areas to facilitate comparison to results of a planned Site Investigation that will characterize concentrations of DU in dust in non-living areas. It is important to recognize that the exposure assumptions used to derive these PRGs are based on average dust DU concentrations in non-living areas. It is inappropriate to compare these PRGs to the dust DU concentration in an isolated small area. The ongoing Site Investigation addresses this consideration and is designed to provide reasonable estimates of average dust DU concentrations in non-living areas of vicinity properties. In order to accomplish this, sampling is conducted in accordance with EPA Guidance for the Sampling and Analysis of Lead in Indoor Residential Dust for Use in the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model, (EPA 2008), which specifically addresses estimating average contaminant concentrations in dust. Four (4) large-area samples are collected from each VP in accordance with this guidance. It is anticipated that the results of the Site Investigation will be used in conjunction with the results of this assessment, and/or subsequent assessments, to establish whether or not a response action is appropriate. (authors)« less

Sea Ice Thickness Estimates from Data Collected Using Airborne Sensors and Coincident In Situ Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, J. M.; Brozena, J. M.; Abelev, A.; Hagen, R. A.; Liang, R.; Ball, D.

2016-12-01

The Naval Research Laboratory collected data using Airborne sensors and coincident in-situ measurements over multiple sites of floating, but land-fast ice north of Barrow, AK. The in-situ data provide ground-truth for airborne measurements from a scanning LiDAR (Riegl Q 560i), digital photogrammetry (Applanix DSS-439), a low-frequency SAR (P-band in 2014 and P and L bands in 2015 and 2016) and a snow/Ku radar procured from the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets of the University of Kansas. The CReSIS radar was updated in 2015 to integrate the snow and Ku radars into a single continuous chirp, thus improving resolution. The objective of the surveys was to aid our understanding of the accuracy of ice thickness estimation via the freeboard method using the airborne sensor suite. Airborne data were collected on multiple overflights of the transect areas. The LiDAR measured total freeboard (ice + snow) referenced to leads in the ice, and produced swaths 200-300 m wide. The SAR imaged the ice beneath the snow and the snow/Ku radar measured snow thickness. The freeboard measurements and snow thickness are used to estimate ice thickness via isostasy and density estimates. Comparisons and processing methodology will be shown using data from three field seasons (2014-2016). The results of this ground-truth experiment will inform our analysis of grids of airborne data collected over areas of sea-ice illuminated by Cryosat-2.

Cost-effective sampling of (137)Cs-derived net soil redistribution: part 2 - estimating the spatial mean change over time.

PubMed

Chappell, A; Li, Y; Yu, H Q; Zhang, Y Z; Li, X Y

2015-06-01

The caesium-137 ((137)Cs) technique for estimating net, time-integrated soil redistribution by the processes of wind, water and tillage is increasingly being used with repeated sampling to form a baseline to evaluate change over small (years to decades) timeframes. This interest stems from knowledge that since the 1950s soil redistribution has responded dynamically to different phases of land use change and management. Currently, there is no standard approach to detect change in (137)Cs-derived net soil redistribution and thereby identify the driving forces responsible for change. We outline recent advances in space-time sampling in the soil monitoring literature which provide a rigorous statistical and pragmatic approach to estimating the change over time in the spatial mean of environmental properties. We apply the space-time sampling framework, estimate the minimum detectable change of net soil redistribution and consider the information content and cost implications of different sampling designs for a study area in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Three phases (1954-1996, 1954-2012 and 1996-2012) of net soil erosion were detectable and attributed to well-documented historical change in land use and management practices in the study area and across the region. We recommend that the design for space-time sampling is considered carefully alongside cost-effective use of the spatial mean to detect and correctly attribute cause of change over time particularly across spatial scales of variation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial downscaling and correction of precipitation and temperature time series to high resolution hydrological response units in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kienzle, Stefan

2015-04-01

Precipitation is the central driving force of most hydrological processes, and is also the most variable element of the hydrological cycle. As the precipitation to runoff ratio is non-linear, errors in precipitation estimations are amplified in streamflow simulations. Therefore, the accurate estimate of areal precipitation is essential for watershed models and relevant impacts studies. A procedure is presented to demonstrate the spatial distribution of daily precipitation and temperature estimates across the Rocky Mountains within the framework of the ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system (ACRU). ACRU (Schulze, 1995) is a physical-conceptual, semi-distributed hydrological modelling system designed to be responsive to changes in land use and climate. The model has been updated to include specific high-mountain and cold climate routines and is applied to simulate impacts of land cover and climate change on the hydrological behaviour of numerous Rocky Mountain watersheds in Alberta, Canada. Both air temperature and precipitation time series need to be downscaled to hydrological response units (HRUs), as they are the spatial modelling units for the model. The estimation of accurate daily air temperatures is critical for the separation of rain and snow. The precipitation estimation procedure integrates a spatially distributed daily precipitation database for the period 1950 to 2010 at a scale of 10 by 10 km with a 1971-2000 climate normal database available at 2 by 2 km (PRISM). Resulting daily precipitation time series are further downscaled to the spatial resolution of hydrological response units, defined by 100 m elevation bands, land cover, and solar radiation, which have an average size of about 15 km2. As snow measurements are known to have a potential under-catch of up to 40%, further adjustment of snowfall may need to be increased using a procedure by Richter (1995). Finally, precipitation input to HRUs with slopes steeper than 10% need to be further corrected, because the true, sloped area, has a larger area than the planimetric area derived from a GIS. The omission of correcting for sloped areas would result in incorrect calculations of interception volumes, soil moisture storages, groundwater recharge rates, actual evapotranspiration volumes, and runoff coefficients. Daily minimum and maximum air temperatures are estimated for each HRU by downscaling the 10km time series to the HRUs by (a) applying monthly mean lapse rates, estimated either from surrounding climate stations or from the PRISM climate normal dataset in combination with a digital elevation model, (b) adjusting further for aspect of the HRU based on monthly mean incoming solar radiation, and (c) adjusting for canopy cover using the monthly mean leaf area indices. Precipitation estimates can be verified using independent snow water equivalent measurements derived from snow pillow or snow course observations, while temperature estimates are verified against either independent temperature measurements from climate stations, or from fire observation towers.

Regional Input-Output Tables and Trade Flows: an Integrated and Interregional Non-survey Approach

DOE PAGES

Boero, Riccardo; Edwards, Brian Keith; Rivera, Michael Kelly

2017-03-20

Regional input–output tables and trade flows: an integrated and interregional non-survey approach. Regional Studies. Regional analyses require detailed and accurate information about dynamics happening within and between regional economies. However, regional input–output tables and trade flows are rarely observed and they must be estimated using up-to-date information. Common estimation approaches vary widely but consider tables and flows independently. Here, by using commonly used economic assumptions and available economic information, this paper presents a method that integrates the estimation of regional input–output tables and trade flows across regions. Examples of the method implementation are presented and compared with other approaches, suggestingmore » that the integrated approach provides advantages in terms of estimation accuracy and analytical capabilities.« less

Regional Input-Output Tables and Trade Flows: an Integrated and Interregional Non-survey Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo; Edwards, Brian Keith; Rivera, Michael Kelly

Regional input–output tables and trade flows: an integrated and interregional non-survey approach. Regional Studies. Regional analyses require detailed and accurate information about dynamics happening within and between regional economies. However, regional input–output tables and trade flows are rarely observed and they must be estimated using up-to-date information. Common estimation approaches vary widely but consider tables and flows independently. Here, by using commonly used economic assumptions and available economic information, this paper presents a method that integrates the estimation of regional input–output tables and trade flows across regions. Examples of the method implementation are presented and compared with other approaches, suggestingmore » that the integrated approach provides advantages in terms of estimation accuracy and analytical capabilities.« less

Hawksbill satellite-tracking case study: Implications for remigration interval and population estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sartain-Iverson, Autumn R.; Hart, Kristen M.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Pollock, Clayton; Lundgren, Ian; Hillis-Starr, Zandy

2016-01-01

Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are circumtropically distributed and listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN (Meylan & Donnelly 1999; NMFS & USFWS 1993). To aid in population recovery and protection, the Hawksbill Recovery Plan identified the need to determine demographic information for hawksbills, such as distribution, abundance, seasonal movements, foraging areas (sections 121 and 2211), growth rates, and survivorship (section 2213, NMFS & USFWS 1993). Mark-recapture analyses are helpful in estimating demographic parameters and have been used for hawksbills throughout the Caribbean (e.g., Richardson et al. 1999; Velez-Zuazo et al. 2008); integral to these studies are recaptures at the nesting site as well as remigration interval estimates (Hays 2000). Estimates of remigration intervals (the duration between nesting seasons) are critical to marine turtle population estimates and measures of nesting success (Hays 2000; Richardson et al. 1999). Although hawksbills in the Caribbean generally show natal philopatry and nesting-site fidelity (Bass et al. 1996; Bowen et al. 2007), exceptions to this have been observed for hawksbills and other marine turtles (Bowen & Karl 2007; Diamond 1976; Esteban et al. 2015; Hart et al. 2013). This flexibility in choosing a nesting beach could therefore affect the apparent remigration interval and subsequently, region-wide population counts.

The utility of estimating net primary productivity over Alaska using baseline AVHRR data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markon, C.J.; Peterson, Kim M.

2002-01-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is a fundamental ecological variable that provides information about the health and status of vegetation communities. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, or NDVI, derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is increasingly being used to model or predict NPP, especially over large remote areas. In this article, seven seasonally based metrics calculated from a seven-year baseline NDVI dataset were used to model NPP over Alaska, USA. For each growing season, they included maximum, mean and summed NDVI, total days, product of total days and maximum NDVI, an integral estimate of NDVI and a summed product of NDVI and solar radiation. Field (plot) derived NPP estimates were assigned to 18 land cover classes from an Alaskan statewide land cover database. Linear relationships between NPP and each NDVI metric were analysed at four scales: plot, 1-km, 10-km and 20-km pixels. Results show moderate to poor relationship between any of the metrics and NPP estimates for all data sets and scales. Use of NDVI for estimating NPP may be possible, but caution is required due to data seasonality, the scaling process used and land surface heterogeneity.

Using nonlinear programming to correct leakage and estimate mass change from GRACE observation and its application to Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingshi; Cheng, Haowen; Liu, Lin

2012-11-01

The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has been providing high quality observations since its launch in 2002. Over the years, fruitful achievements have been obtained and the temporal gravity field has revealed the ongoing geophysical, hydrological and other processes. These discoveries help the scientists better understand various aspects of the Earth. However, errors exist in high degree and order spherical harmonics, which need to be processed before use. Filtering is one of the most commonly used techniques to smooth errors, yet it attenuates signals and also causes leakage of gravity signal into surrounding areas. This paper reports a new method to estimate the true mass change on the grid (expressed in equivalent water height or surface density). The mass change over the grid can be integrated to estimate regional or global mass change. This method assumes the GRACE-observed apparent mass change is only caused by the mass change on land. By comparing the computed and observed apparent mass change, the true mass change can be iteratively adjusted and estimated. The problem is solved with nonlinear programming (NLP) and yields solutions which are in good agreement with other GRACE-based estimates.

Evaluation of health benefit using BenMAP-CE with an integrated scheme of model and monitor data during Guangzhou Asian Games.

PubMed

Ding, Dian; Zhu, Yun; Jang, Carey; Lin, Che-Jen; Wang, Shuxiao; Fu, Joshua; Gao, Jian; Deng, Shuang; Xie, Junping; Qiu, Xuezhen

2016-04-01

Guangzhou is the capital and largest city (land area: 7287 km(2)) of Guangdong province in South China. The air quality in Guangzhou typically worsens in November due to unfavorable meteorological conditions for pollutant dispersion. During the Guangzhou Asian Games in November 2010, the Guangzhou government carried out a number of emission control measures that significantly improved the air quality. In this paper, we estimated the acute health outcome changes related to the air quality improvement during the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games using a next-generation, fully-integrated assessment system for air quality and health benefits. This advanced system generates air quality data by fusing model and monitoring data instead of using monitoring data alone, which provides more reliable results. The air quality estimates retain the spatial distribution of model results while calibrating the value with observations. The results show that the mean PM2.5 concentration in November 2010 decreased by 3.5 μg/m(3) compared to that in 2009 due to the emission control measures. From the analysis, we estimate that the air quality improvement avoided 106 premature deaths, 1869 cases of hospital admission, and 20,026 cases of outpatient visits. The overall cost benefit of the improved air quality is estimated to be 165 million CNY, with the avoided premature death contributing 90% of this figure. The research demonstrates that BenMAP-CE is capable of assessing the health and cost benefits of air pollution control for sound policy making. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Methods for Estimating Withdrawal and Return Flow by Census Block for 2005 and 2020 for New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Laura; Horn, Marilee A.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services, estimated the amount of water demand, consumptive use, withdrawal, and return flow for each U.S. Census block in New Hampshire for the years 2005 (current) and 2020. Estimates of domestic, commercial, industrial, irrigation, and other nondomestic water use were derived through the use and innovative integration of several State and Federal databases, and by use of previously developed techniques. The New Hampshire Water Demand database was created as part of this study to store and integrate State of New Hampshire data central to the project. Within the New Hampshire Water Demand database, a lookup table was created to link the State databases and identify water users common to more than one database. The lookup table also allowed identification of withdrawal and return-flow locations of registered and unregistered commercial, industrial, agricultural, and other nondomestic users. Geographic information system data from the State were used in combination with U.S. Census Bureau spatial data to locate and quantify withdrawals and return flow for domestic users in each census block. Analyzing and processing the most recently available data resulted in census-block estimations of 2005 water use. Applying population projections developed by the State to the data sets enabled projection of water use for the year 2020. The results for each census block are stored in the New Hampshire Water Demand database and may be aggregated to larger political areas or watersheds to assess relative hydrologic stress on the basis of current and potential water availability.

Sampling system for wheat (Triticum aestivum L) area estimation using digital LANDSAT MSS data and aerial photographs. [Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Moreira, M. A.; Chen, S. C.; Batista, G. T.

1984-01-01

A procedure to estimate wheat (Triticum aestivum L) area using sampling technique based on aerial photographs and digital LANDSAT MSS data is developed. Aerial photographs covering 720 square km are visually analyzed. To estimate wheat area, a regression approach is applied using different sample sizes and various sampling units. As the size of sampling unit decreased, the percentage of sampled area required to obtain similar estimation performance also decreased. The lowest percentage of the area sampled for wheat estimation with relatively high precision and accuracy through regression estimation is 13.90% using 10 square km as the sampling unit. Wheat area estimation using only aerial photographs is less precise and accurate than those obtained by regression estimation.

An individual-based population dynamic model for estimating biomass yield and nutrient fluxes through an off-shore mussel ( Mytilus galloprovincialis) farm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigolin, Daniele; Maschio, Gabriele Dal; Rampazzo, Federico; Giani, Michele; Pastres, Roberto

2009-04-01

The fluxes of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus through an off-shore long-line Mytilus galloprovincialis farm during a typical rearing cycle were estimated by combining a simple population dynamic model, based on a new individual model, and a set of field data, concerning the composition of the seston, as well as that of mussel meat and faeces. The individual model, based on an energy budget, was validated against a set of original field data, which were purposely collected from July 2006 to May 2007 in the North-Western Adriatic Sea (Italy) and was further tested using historical data. The model was upscaled to the population level by means of a set of Monte Carlo simulations, which were used for estimating the size structure of the population. The daily fluxes of C, N and P associated with mussel filtration, excretion and faeces and pseudo-faeces production were integrated over the 10-month-long rearing cycle and compared with the total amount of C, N and P removed by harvesting. The results indicate that the individual model compares well with an existing literature model and provides reliable estimations of the growth of mussel specimen over a range of trophic conditions which are typical of the Northern Adriatic Sea coastal area. The results of the budget calculation indicate that, even though the harvest represents a net removal of phosphorus and nitrogen from the ecosystem, the mussel farm increases the retention time of both nutrients in the coastal area, via the deposition of faeces and pseudo-faeces on the sea-bed. In fact, the amount of nitrogen associated with deposition is approximately twice the harvested one and the amount of phosphorus is approximately five times higher. These findings are in qualitative agreement with the results of literature budget and model calculations carried out in a temperate coastal embayment. This agreement suggests that the proper assessment of the overall effect of long-line mussel farming on both the benthic and pelagic ecosystem asks for an integrated modelling approach, which should include the dynamic of early diagenesis processes, as well as of that of nutrients released from the surface sediment.

Heritability and genetic integration of tooth size in the South Carolina Gullah.

PubMed

Stojanowski, Christopher M; Paul, Kathleen S; Seidel, Andrew C; Duncan, William N; Guatelli-Steinberg, Debbie

2017-11-01

This article provides estimates of narrow-sense heritability and genetic pleiotropy for mesiodistal tooth dimensions for a sample of 20th century African American individuals. Results inform biological distance analysis and offer insights into patterns of integration in the human dentition. Maximum mesiodistal crown dimensions were measured using Hillson-FitzGerald calipers on 469 stone dental casts from the Menegaz-Bock Collection. Narrow-sense heritability estimates and genetic and phenotypic correlations were estimated using SOLAR 8.1.1 with covariate screening for age, sex, age*sex interaction, and birth year. Heritability estimates were moderate (∼0.10 - 0.90; h 2 mean = 0.51) for most measured variables with sex as the only significant covariate. Patterns of genetic correlation indicate strong integration across tooth classes, except molars. Comparison of these results to previously published work suggests lower overall heritability relative to other human populations and much stronger genetic integration across tooth classes than obtained from nonhuman primate genetic pleiotropy estimates. These results suggest that the high heritabilities previously published may reflect overestimates inherent in previous study designs; as such the standard estimate of 0.55 used in biodistance analyses may not be appropriate. For the Gullah, isolation and endogamy coupled with elevated levels of physiological and economic stress may suppress narrow-sense heritability estimates. Pleiotropy analyses suggest a more highly integrated dentition in humans than in other mammals. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sequencing the Cortical Processing of Pitch-Evoking Stimuli using EEG Analysis and Source Estimation

PubMed Central

Butler, Blake E.; Trainor, Laurel J.

2012-01-01

Cues to pitch include spectral cues that arise from tonotopic organization and temporal cues that arise from firing patterns of auditory neurons. fMRI studies suggest a common pitch center is located just beyond primary auditory cortex along the lateral aspect of Heschl’s gyrus, but little work has examined the stages of processing for the integration of pitch cues. Using electroencephalography, we recorded cortical responses to high-pass filtered iterated rippled noise (IRN) and high-pass filtered complex harmonic stimuli, which differ in temporal and spectral content. The two stimulus types were matched for pitch saliency, and a mismatch negativity (MMN) response was elicited by infrequent pitch changes. The P1 and N1 components of event-related potentials (ERPs) are thought to arise from primary and secondary auditory areas, respectively, and to result from simple feature extraction. MMN is generated in secondary auditory cortex and is thought to act on feature-integrated auditory objects. We found that peak latencies of both P1 and N1 occur later in response to IRN stimuli than to complex harmonic stimuli, but found no latency differences between stimulus types for MMN. The location of each ERP component was estimated based on iterative fitting of regional sources in the auditory cortices. The sources of both the P1 and N1 components elicited by IRN stimuli were located dorsal to those elicited by complex harmonic stimuli, whereas no differences were observed for MMN sources across stimuli. Furthermore, the MMN component was located between the P1 and N1 components, consistent with fMRI studies indicating a common pitch region in lateral Heschl’s gyrus. These results suggest that while the spectral and temporal processing of different pitch-evoking stimuli involves different cortical areas during early processing, by the time the object-related MMN response is formed, these cues have been integrated into a common representation of pitch. PMID:22740836

Strategies for Early Outbreak Detection of Malaria in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekorchuk, D.; Gebrehiwot, T.; Mihretie, A.; Awoke, W.; Wimberly, M. C.

2017-12-01

Traditional epidemiological approaches to early detection of disease outbreaks are based on relatively straightforward thresholds (e.g. 75th percentile, standard deviations) estimated from historical case data. For diseases with strong seasonality, these can be modified to create separate thresholds for each seasonal time step. However, for disease processes that are non-stationary, more sophisticated techniques are needed to more accurately estimate outbreak threshold values. Early detection for geohealth-related diseases that also have environmental drivers, such as vector-borne diseases, may also benefit from the integration of time-lagged environmental data and disease ecology models into the threshold calculations. The Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) project has been integrating malaria case surveillance with remotely-sensed environmental data for early detection, warning, and forecasting of malaria epidemics in the Amhara region of Ethiopia, and has five years of weekly time series data from 47 woredas (districts). Efforts to reduce the burden of malaria in Ethiopia has been met with some notable success in the past two decades with major reduction in cases and deaths. However, malaria remains a significant public health threat as 60% of the population live in malarious areas, and due to the seasonal and unstable transmission patterns with cyclic outbreaks, protective immunity is generally low which could cause high morbidity and mortality during the epidemics. This study compared several approaches for defining outbreak thresholds and for identifying a potential outbreak based on deviations from these thresholds. We found that model-based approaches that accounted for climate-driven seasonality in malaria transmission were most effective, and that incorporating a trend component improved outbreak detection in areas with active malaria elimination efforts. An advantage of these early detection techniques is that they can detect climate-driven outbreaks as well as outbreaks driven by social factors such as human migration.

Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skene, Katherine J.; Gent, Janneane F.; McKay, Lisa A.; Belanger, Kathleen; Leaderer, Brian P.; Holford, Theodore R.

2010-12-01

An integrated exposure model was developed that estimates nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) concentration at residences using geographic information systems (GIS) and variables derived within residential buffers representing traffic volume and landscape characteristics including land use, population density and elevation. Multiple measurements of NO 2 taken outside of 985 residences in Connecticut were used to develop the model. A second set of 120 outdoor NO 2 measurements as well as cross-validation were used to validate the model. The model suggests that approximately 67% of the variation in NO 2 levels can be explained by: traffic and land use primarily within 2 km of a residence; population density; elevation; and time of year. Potential benefits of this model for health effects research include improved spatial estimations of traffic-related pollutant exposure and reduced need for extensive pollutant measurements. The model, which could be calibrated and applied in areas other than Connecticut, has importance as a tool for exposure estimation in epidemiological studies of traffic-related air pollution.

Figure-ground segregation: A fully nonlocal approach.

PubMed

Dimiccoli, Mariella

2016-09-01

We present a computational model that computes and integrates in a nonlocal fashion several configural cues for automatic figure-ground segregation. Our working hypothesis is that the figural status of each pixel is a nonlocal function of several geometric shape properties and it can be estimated without explicitly relying on object boundaries. The methodology is grounded on two elements: multi-directional linear voting and nonlinear diffusion. A first estimation of the figural status of each pixel is obtained as a result of a voting process, in which several differently oriented line-shaped neighborhoods vote to express their belief about the figural status of the pixel. A nonlinear diffusion process is then applied to enforce the coherence of figural status estimates among perceptually homogeneous regions. Computer simulations fit human perception and match the experimental evidence that several cues cooperate in defining figure-ground segregation. The results of this work suggest that figure-ground segregation involves feedback from cells with larger receptive fields in higher visual cortical areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The estimation of the Earth's gravity field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabo, Bela

1986-06-01

The various methods for the description of the Earth's gravity field from direct and/or indirect observations are reviewed. Geopotential models produced by various organizations and in use during the past 15 years are discussed in detail. Recent and future programs for the improvement of global gravity fields are reviewed and the expected improvements from new observation and data processing techniques are estimated. The regional and local gravity field is also reviewed. The various data types and their spectral properties, the sensitivities of the different gravimetric quantities to datatypes are discussed. The techniques for the estimation of gravimetric quantities and the achievable accuracies are presented (e.g., integral formulae, collocation). The results of recent works in this area by prominent authors are reviewed. The prediction of gravity outside the earth from surface data is discussed in two forms: a) prediction of gravity disturbance at high altitudes and b) upward continuation of gravity anomalies. The achievable improvements of the high frequency field by airborne gradiometry are summarized utilizing recent investigations.

Development of Triad approach based system for ecological risk assessment for contaminated areas of Kyrgyzstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kydralieva, Kamilia; Uzbekov, Beksultan; Khudaibergenova, Bermet; Terekhova, Vera; Jorobekova, Sharipa

2014-05-01

This research is aimed to develop a high-effective system of an ecological risk assessment and risk-based decision making for anthropogenic ecosystems, with particular focus on the soils of the Kyrgyz Republic. The study is focused on the integration of Triad data including chemical, biological and ecotoxicological soil markers to estimate the potential risk from soils of highly anthropized areas impacted by deposition of different pollutants from mining operation. We focus on technogenic areas of Kyrgyzstan, the former uranium-producing province. Triad-based ecological risk assessment for technogenic sites are not currently used in Kyrgyzstan. However, the vitality of such research is self-evident. There are about 50 tailing dumps and more than 80 tips of radioactive waste which are formed as a result of uranium and complex ores (mercury, antimony, lead, cadmium and etc) mining around the unfavorable aforementioned places. According to the Mining Wastes' Tailings and Fills Rehabilitation Centre established in 1999 by a special Government's Resolution, one of the most ecologically dangerous uranium tailings resides in Kadzhi-Say. Although uranium processing is no longer practiced in Kadzhi-Say, a large number of open landfills and uranium ore storages still remain abandoned at the vicinity of this settlement. These neglected sites have enormous problems associated with soil erosion known as "technogenic deserts". The upper soil horizons are deprived of humus and vegetation, which favor the formation of low-buffer landscapes in the zones of maximum contamination. As a result, most of these areas are not re-cultivated and remain in critical environmental condition (Bykovchenko, et al., 2005; Tukhvatshin, 2005; Suranova, 2006). Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites will be integrated. The following Triad-based parameters will be employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous substances), 2) ecological parameters (assessing changes in microorganism's community structure and functions, bioindication); and 3) toxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates, genotoxicity). The output will be consisted of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk Index, quantifying the level of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index, assessing the potential threats to biological equilibria, and 3) Genotoxicity Index, screening genotoxic effects. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) will be used to integrate a set of environmental Triad data to be obtained during the project, which will be carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soil contamination of the highly anthropized areas of Kadzhi-Say, which have been impacted by deposition of heavy metals. The basis of the development under this research is studies with a particular focus concerning the biocenosis mapping of Kyrgyz soils (Mamytova et al., 2003, 2010), investigations on interaction of humic substances with soil contaminants (Jorobekova, Kydralieva, Khudaibergenova, 2004; Khudaibergenova, 2005, 2007), and in addition, technical approach for ecotoxicological assessment of soils (Terekhova, 2007, 2011). Soil ecotoxicological estimation has been studied with a battery of tests using test-organisms of many trophic levels. Currently, bioindication of soils with various humus states is under study (Senesi, Yakimenko 2007; Yakimenko, et al., 2008).

Area estimation using multiyear designs and partial crop identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sielken, R. L., Jr.

1983-01-01

Progress is reported for the following areas: (1) estimating the stratum's crop acreage proportion using the multiyear area estimation model; (2) assessment of multiyear sampling designs; and (3) development of statistical methodology for incorporating partially identified sample segments into crop area estimation.

Analysis of Compound Water Hazard in Coastal Urbanized Areas under the Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibuo, Y.; Taniguchi, K.; Sanuki, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Lee, S.; Tajima, Y.; Koike, T.; Furumai, H.; Sato, S.

2017-12-01

Several studies indicate the increased frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfalls as well as the sea level rise under the future climate, which implies that coastal low-lying urbanized areas may experience increased risk against flooding. In such areas, where river discharge, tidal fluctuation, and city drainage networks altogether influence urban inundation, it is necessary to consider their potential interference to understand the effect of compound water hazard. For instance, pump stations cannot pump out storm water when the river water level is high, and in the meantime the river water level shall increase when it receives pumped water from cities. At the further downstream, as the tidal fluctuation regulates the water levels in the river, it will also affect the functionality of pump stations and possible inundation from rivers. In this study, we estimate compound water hazard in the coastal low-lying urbanized areas of the Tsurumi river basin under the future climate. We developed the seamlessly integrated river, sewerage, and coastal hydraulic model that can simulate river water levels, water flow in sewerage network, and inundation from the rivers and/or the coast to address the potential interference issue. As a forcing, the pseudo global warming method, which applies the changes in GCM anomaly to re-analysis data, is employed to produce ensemble typhoons to drive the seamlessly integrated model. The results show that heavy rainfalls caused by the observed typhoon generally become stronger under the pseudo global climate condition. It also suggests that the coastal low-lying areas become extensively inundated if the onset of river flooding and storm surge coincides.

Integration of multiple theories for the simulation of laser interference lithography processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Te-Hsun; Yang, Yin-Kuang; Fu, Chien-Chung

2017-11-01

The periodic structure of laser interference lithography (LIL) fabrication is superior to other lithography technologies. In contrast to traditional lithography, LIL has the advantages of being a simple optical system with no mask requirements, low cost, high depth of focus, and large patterning area in a single exposure. Generally, a simulation pattern for the periodic structure is obtained through optical interference prior to its fabrication through LIL. However, the LIL process is complex and combines the fields of optical and polymer materials; thus, a single simulation theory cannot reflect the real situation. Therefore, this research integrates multiple theories, including those of optical interference, standing waves, and photoresist characteristics, to create a mathematical model for the LIL process. The mathematical model can accurately estimate the exposure time and reduce the LIL process duration through trial and error.

Direct and indirect impacts of integrated pest management on pesticide use: a case of rice agriculture in Java, Indonesia.

PubMed

Mariyono, Joko

2008-10-01

Integrated pest management (IPM) technology has been disseminated since 1989 in Indonesia to cut down pesticide use, but the adoption and diffusion of the technology are still debated. This study aims to estimate the models of demand for pesticides and to analyse the impact of IPM technology on pesticide use. Aggregate cross-section time series data from 1990-1998 are used. The results show that IPM technology reduces the use of pesticides by improving the process of rice production, such that pesticides are more efficiently used. In this case, the IPM technology is not a pest control technique. CONCLUSION There is an indication that IPM technology has been adopted by farmers. This is evidence that the IPM programme in Indonesia was successful in this area.

Integration of multiple theories for the simulation of laser interference lithography processes.

PubMed

Lin, Te-Hsun; Yang, Yin-Kuang; Fu, Chien-Chung

2017-11-24

The periodic structure of laser interference lithography (LIL) fabrication is superior to other lithography technologies. In contrast to traditional lithography, LIL has the advantages of being a simple optical system with no mask requirements, low cost, high depth of focus, and large patterning area in a single exposure. Generally, a simulation pattern for the periodic structure is obtained through optical interference prior to its fabrication through LIL. However, the LIL process is complex and combines the fields of optical and polymer materials; thus, a single simulation theory cannot reflect the real situation. Therefore, this research integrates multiple theories, including those of optical interference, standing waves, and photoresist characteristics, to create a mathematical model for the LIL process. The mathematical model can accurately estimate the exposure time and reduce the LIL process duration through trial and error.

Information Flow in an Atmospheric Model and Data Assimilation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yoon, Young-noh

2011-01-01

Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background…

Perceived object stability depends on multisensory estimates of gravity.

PubMed

Barnett-Cowan, Michael; Fleming, Roland W; Singh, Manish; Bülthoff, Heinrich H

2011-04-27

How does the brain estimate object stability? Objects fall over when the gravity-projected centre-of-mass lies outside the point or area of support. To estimate an object's stability visually, the brain must integrate information across the shape and compare its orientation to gravity. When observers lie on their sides, gravity is perceived as tilted toward body orientation, consistent with a representation of gravity derived from multisensory information. We exploited this to test whether vestibular and kinesthetic information affect this visual task or whether the brain estimates object stability solely from visual information. In three body orientations, participants viewed images of objects close to a table edge. We measured the critical angle at which each object appeared equally likely to fall over or right itself. Perceived gravity was measured using the subjective visual vertical. The results show that the perceived critical angle was significantly biased in the same direction as the subjective visual vertical (i.e., towards the multisensory estimate of gravity). Our results rule out a general explanation that the brain depends solely on visual heuristics and assumptions about object stability. Instead, they suggest that multisensory estimates of gravity govern the perceived stability of objects, resulting in objects appearing more stable than they are when the head is tilted in the same direction in which they fall.

Estimating regional wheat yield from the shape of decreasing curves of green area index temporal profiles retrieved from MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kouadio, Louis; Duveiller, Grégory; Djaby, Bakary; El Jarroudi, Moussa; Defourny, Pierre; Tychon, Bernard

2012-08-01

Earth observation data, owing to their synoptic, timely and repetitive coverage, have been recognized as a valuable tool for crop monitoring at different levels. At the field level, the close correlation between green leaf area (GLA) during maturation and grain yield in wheat revealed that the onset and rate of senescence appeared to be important factors for determining wheat grain yield. Our study sought to explore a simple approach for wheat yield forecasting at the regional level, based on metrics derived from the senescence phase of the green area index (GAI) retrieved from remote sensing data. This study took advantage of recent methodological improvements in which imagery with high revisit frequency but coarse spatial resolution can be exploited to derive crop-specific GAI time series by selecting pixels whose ground-projected instantaneous field of view is dominated by the target crop: winter wheat. A logistic function was used to characterize the GAI senescence phase and derive the metrics of this phase. Four regression-based models involving these metrics (i.e., the maximum GAI value, the senescence rate and the thermal time taken to reach 50% of the green surface in the senescent phase) were related to official wheat yield data. The performances of such models at this regional scale showed that final yield could be estimated with an RMSE of 0.57 ton ha-1, representing about 7% as relative RMSE. Such an approach may be considered as a first yield estimate that could be performed in order to provide better integrated yield assessments in operational systems.

A Wide Area Risk Assessment Framework for Underwater Military Munitions Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, K. T.; Calantoni, J.

2017-12-01

Our objective was to develop a prototype statistical framework supporting Wide Area Assessment and Remedial Investigation decisions relating to the risk of unexploded ordnance and other military munitions concentrated in underwater environments. Decision making involving underwater munitions is inherently complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the environmental conditions that force munitions responses (burial, decay, migration, etc.) and associated risks to the public. The prototype framework provides a consistent approach to accurately delineating contaminated areas at underwater munitions sites through the estimation of most probable concentrations. We adapted existing deterministic models and environmental data services for use within statistical modules that allowed the estimation of munition concentration given historic site information and environmental attributes. Ultimately this risk surface can be used to evaluate costs associated with various remediation approaches (e.g. removal, monitoring, etc.). Unfortunately, evaluation of the assessment framework was limited due to the lack of enduser data services from munition site managers. Of the 450 U.S. sites identified as having potential contamination with underwater munitions, assessment of available munitions information (including historic firing or disposal records, and recent ground-truth munitions samples) indicated very limited information in the databases. Example data types include the most probable munition types, approximate firing / disposal dates and locations, and any supportive munition survey or sampling results. However the overall technical goal to integrate trained statistical belief networks with detailed geophysical knowledge of sites, of sensors and of the underwater environment was demonstrated and should allow probabilistic estimates of the most likely outcomes and tradeoffs while managing uncertainty associated with military munitions response.

Road traffic impact on urban water quality: a step towards integrated traffic, air and stormwater modelling.

PubMed

Fallah Shorshani, Masoud; Bonhomme, Céline; Petrucci, Guido; André, Michel; Seigneur, Christian

2014-04-01

Methods for simulating air pollution due to road traffic and the associated effects on stormwater runoff quality in an urban environment are examined with particular emphasis on the integration of the various simulation models into a consistent modelling chain. To that end, the models for traffic, pollutant emissions, atmospheric dispersion and deposition, and stormwater contamination are reviewed. The present study focuses on the implementation of a modelling chain for an actual urban case study, which is the contamination of water runoff by cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) in the Grigny urban catchment near Paris, France. First, traffic emissions are calculated with traffic inputs using the COPERT4 methodology. Next, the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants is simulated with the Polyphemus line source model and pollutant deposition fluxes in different subcatchment areas are calculated. Finally, the SWMM water quantity and quality model is used to estimate the concentrations of pollutants in stormwater runoff. The simulation results are compared to mass flow rates and concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn measured at the catchment outlet. The contribution of local traffic to stormwater contamination is estimated to be significant for Pb and, to a lesser extent, for Zn and Cd; however, Pb is most likely overestimated due to outdated emissions factors. The results demonstrate the importance of treating distributed traffic emissions from major roadways explicitly since the impact of these sources on concentrations in the catchment outlet is underestimated when those traffic emissions are spatially averaged over the catchment area.

Spatially-Distributed Cost–Effectiveness Analysis Framework to Control Phosphorus from Agricultural Diffuse Pollution

PubMed Central

Geng, Runzhe; Wang, Xiaoyan; Sharpley, Andrew N.; Meng, Fande

2015-01-01

Best management practices (BMPs) for agricultural diffuse pollution control are implemented at the field or small-watershed scale. However, the benefits of BMP implementation on receiving water quality at multiple spatial is an ongoing challenge. In this paper, we introduce an integrated approach that combines risk assessment (i.e., Phosphorus (P) index), model simulation techniques (Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN), and a BMP placement tool at various scales to identify the optimal location for implementing multiple BMPs and estimate BMP effectiveness after implementation. A statistically significant decrease in nutrient discharge from watersheds is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of BMPs, strategically targeted within watersheds. Specifically, we estimate two types of cost-effectiveness curves (total pollution reduction and proportion of watersheds improved) for four allocation approaches. Selection of a ‘‘best approach” depends on the relative importance of the two types of effectiveness, which involves a value judgment based on the random/aggregated degree of BMP distribution among and within sub-watersheds. A statistical optimization framework is developed and evaluated in Chaohe River Watershed located in the northern mountain area of Beijing. Results show that BMP implementation significantly (p >0.001) decrease P loss from the watershed. Remedial strategies where BMPs were targeted to areas of high risk of P loss, deceased P loads compared with strategies where BMPs were randomly located across watersheds. Sensitivity analysis indicated that aggregated BMP placement in particular watershed is the most cost-effective scenario to decrease P loss. The optimization approach outlined in this paper is a spatially hierarchical method for targeting nonpoint source controls across a range of scales from field to farm, to watersheds, to regions. Further, model estimates showed targeting at multiple scales is necessary to optimize program efficiency. The integrated model approach described that selects and places BMPs at varying levels of implementation, provides a new theoretical basis and technical guidance for diffuse pollution management in agricultural watersheds. PMID:26313561

Spatially-Distributed Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Framework to Control Phosphorus from Agricultural Diffuse Pollution.

PubMed

Geng, Runzhe; Wang, Xiaoyan; Sharpley, Andrew N; Meng, Fande

2015-01-01

Best management practices (BMPs) for agricultural diffuse pollution control are implemented at the field or small-watershed scale. However, the benefits of BMP implementation on receiving water quality at multiple spatial is an ongoing challenge. In this paper, we introduce an integrated approach that combines risk assessment (i.e., Phosphorus (P) index), model simulation techniques (Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN), and a BMP placement tool at various scales to identify the optimal location for implementing multiple BMPs and estimate BMP effectiveness after implementation. A statistically significant decrease in nutrient discharge from watersheds is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of BMPs, strategically targeted within watersheds. Specifically, we estimate two types of cost-effectiveness curves (total pollution reduction and proportion of watersheds improved) for four allocation approaches. Selection of a ''best approach" depends on the relative importance of the two types of effectiveness, which involves a value judgment based on the random/aggregated degree of BMP distribution among and within sub-watersheds. A statistical optimization framework is developed and evaluated in Chaohe River Watershed located in the northern mountain area of Beijing. Results show that BMP implementation significantly (p >0.001) decrease P loss from the watershed. Remedial strategies where BMPs were targeted to areas of high risk of P loss, deceased P loads compared with strategies where BMPs were randomly located across watersheds. Sensitivity analysis indicated that aggregated BMP placement in particular watershed is the most cost-effective scenario to decrease P loss. The optimization approach outlined in this paper is a spatially hierarchical method for targeting nonpoint source controls across a range of scales from field to farm, to watersheds, to regions. Further, model estimates showed targeting at multiple scales is necessary to optimize program efficiency. The integrated model approach described that selects and places BMPs at varying levels of implementation, provides a new theoretical basis and technical guidance for diffuse pollution management in agricultural watersheds.

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF WATERBORNE INFECTIOUS DISEASE RISK USING THE HYDRAULIC MODEL AND OUTPATIENT DATA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amano, Ayako; Sakuma, Taisuke; Kazama, So

This study evaluated waterborne infectious diseases risk and incidence rate around Phonm Penh in Cambodia. We use the hydraulic flood simulation, coliform bacterium diffusion model, dose-response model and outpatient data for quantitative analysis. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The incidence (incidence rate) of diarrhea as water borne diseases risk is 0.14 million people (9%) in the inundation area. 2. The residents in the inundation area are exposed up to 4 times as high risk as daily mean calculated by the integrated model combined in the regional scale. 3.The infectious disease risk due to floods and inundation indicated is effective as an element to explain the risk. The scenario explains 34% number of patient estimated by the outpatient data.

Integrated planning and spatial evaluation of megasite remediation and reuse options.

PubMed

Schädler, Sebastian; Morio, Maximilian; Bartke, Stephan; Finkel, Michael

2012-01-01

Redevelopment of large contaminated brownfields (megasites) is often hampered by a lack of communication and harmonization among diverse stakeholders with potentially conflicting interests. Decision support is required to provide integrative yet transparent evaluation of often complex spatial information to stakeholders with different areas of expertise. It is considered crucial for successful redevelopment to identify a shared vision of how the respective contaminated site could be remediated and redeveloped. We describe a framework of assessment methods and models that analyzes and visualizes site- and land use-specific spatial information at the screening level, with the aim to support the derivation of recommendable land use layouts and to initiate further and more detailed planning. The framework integrates a GIS-based identification of areas to be remediated, an estimation of associated clean-up costs, a spatially explicit market value appraisal, and an assessment of the planned future land use's contribution to sustainable urban and regional development. Case study results show that derived options are potentially favorable in both a sustainability and an economic sense and that iterative re-planning is facilitated by the evaluation and visualization of economic, ecological and socio-economic aspects. The framework supports an efficient early judgment about whether and how abandoned land may be assigned a sustainable and marketable land use. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementation of an Educational Cartoon ("the Patchbook") and Other Compliance-Enhancing Measures by Orthoptists in Occlusion Treatment of Amblyopia.

PubMed

Tjiam, A M; Asjes-Tydeman, W L; Holtslag, G; Vukovic, E; Sinoo, M M; Loudon, S E; Passchier, J; de Koning, H J; Simonsz, H J

2016-09-01

This implementation study evaluated orthoptists' use of an educational cartoon ("the Patchbook") and other measures to improve compliance with occlusion therapy for amblyopia. Participating orthoptists provided standard orthoptic care for one year, adding the Patchbook in the second year. They attended courses on compliance and intercultural communication by communication skills training. Many other compliance-enhancing measures were initiated. Orthoptists' awareness, attitude, and activities regarding noncompliance were assessed through interviews, questionnaires, and observations. Their use of the Patchbook was measured. The study was performed in low socio-economic status (SES) areas and in other areas in the Netherlands. It was attempted to integrate education on compliance into basic and continuing orthoptic training. The Patchbook was used by all 9 orthoptists who participated in low-SES areas and 17 of 23 orthoptists in other areas. Courses changed awareness and attitude about compliance, but this was not sustained. Although orthoptists estimated compliance during patching at 70%, three-quarters never suspected noncompliance during a full day of observation in any of their patients. Explanations to parents who spoke Dutch poorly were short. In the second year, explanations to children were longer. Implementation of all 7 additional compliance-enhancing measures failed. Education on compliance was not integrated into orthoptists' training. Almost all orthoptists used the Patchbook and, as another study demonstrated, it proved to be very effective, especially in low-SES areas. Duration of explanation was inversely proportional to parents' fluency in Dutch. Noncompliance was rarely suspected by orthoptists. Although 7 additional compliance-enhancing measures had been conceived and planned with the best intentions, they were not realized. These required extra, unpaid time from the orthoptists, which is especially scarce in hospitals in low-SES areas where the educational cartoon is most needed.

Integration: For or Against?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veblen, Kari K.; Elliott, David J.

2000-01-01

Argues in support of integrating music education with other subject areas, discussing the importance of maintaining music's integrity, combining the arts, reasons for integration, and whether integration is always good. Offers an opposing argument that views the integration of music with other subject areas as unsound. (CMK)

Small area estimation (SAE) model: Case study of poverty in West Java Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhartini, Titin; Sadik, Kusman; Indahwati

2016-02-01

This paper showed the comparative of direct estimation and indirect/Small Area Estimation (SAE) model. Model selection included resolve multicollinearity problem in auxiliary variable, such as choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and implemented principal component (PC). Concern parameters in this paper were the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The approach for estimating these parameters could be performed based on direct estimation and SAE. The problem of direct estimation, three area even zero and could not be conducted by directly estimation, because small sample size. The proportion of agricultural venture poor households showed 19.22% and agricultural poor households showed 46.79%. The best model from agricultural venture poor households by choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and the best model from agricultural poor households by implemented PC. The best estimator showed SAE better then direct estimation both of the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The solution overcame small sample size and obtained estimation for small area was implemented small area estimation method for evidence higher accuracy and better precision improved direct estimator.

Estimation of forest aboveground biomass and uncertainties by integration of field measurements, airborne LiDAR, and SAR and optical satellite data in Mexico.

PubMed

Urbazaev, Mikhail; Thiel, Christian; Cremer, Felix; Dubayah, Ralph; Migliavacca, Mirco; Reichstein, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

2018-02-21

Information on the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB) over large areas is needed for understanding and managing processes involved in the carbon cycle and supporting international policies for climate change mitigation and adaption. Furthermore, these products provide important baseline data for the development of sustainable management strategies to local stakeholders. The use of remote sensing data can provide spatially explicit information of AGB from local to global scales. In this study, we mapped national Mexican forest AGB using satellite remote sensing data and a machine learning approach. We modelled AGB using two scenarios: (1) extensive national forest inventory (NFI), and (2) airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) as reference data. Finally, we propagated uncertainties from field measurements to LiDAR-derived AGB and to the national wall-to-wall forest AGB map. The estimated AGB maps (NFI- and LiDAR-calibrated) showed similar goodness-of-fit statistics (R 2 , Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)) at three different scales compared to the independent validation data set. We observed different spatial patterns of AGB in tropical dense forests, where no or limited number of NFI data were available, with higher AGB values in the LiDAR-calibrated map. We estimated much higher uncertainties in the AGB maps based on two-stage up-scaling method (i.e., from field measurements to LiDAR and from LiDAR-based estimates to satellite imagery) compared to the traditional field to satellite up-scaling. By removing LiDAR-based AGB pixels with high uncertainties, it was possible to estimate national forest AGB with similar uncertainties as calibrated with NFI data only. Since LiDAR data can be acquired much faster and for much larger areas compared to field inventory data, LiDAR is attractive for repetitive large scale AGB mapping. In this study, we showed that two-stage up-scaling methods for AGB estimation over large areas need to be analyzed and validated with great care. The uncertainties in the LiDAR-estimated AGB propagate further in the wall-to-wall map and can be up to 150%. Thus, when a two-stage up-scaling method is applied, it is crucial to characterize the uncertainties at all stages in order to generate robust results. Considering the findings mentioned above LiDAR can be used as an extension to NFI for example for areas that are difficult or not possible to access.

Implementation green and low cost on landscape design of Manggarai Integrated Station, Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryanti, T.; Meilianti, H.

2018-01-01

The Manggarai Integrated Station is the transit of various transportation modes. The Integrated Station located in Manggarai Jakarta and managed by PT. KAI. The Manggarai station is integrated and have terminal nature of transit areas (switching mode of transportation). There are several problems in the site, such as the problem of the site conditions in the urban area, topography, soil, vegetation, space, visual, users on the site can provide ideas for the concepts. The data was analyzed using the quantitative descriptive methode. The purpose of this research is to design the integrated station atmosphere, not only can support of the activities station users, but can also accommodate the needs of the community. It will “Green, Low cost” at the Manggarai integrated transport transit station in Jakarta. The potential that exists in this area is the lowliest integrated from various areas of the mode of transportation that make the users to facilitate transit transportation to the other. The basic concept of this design refers to the “Green, Low Cost” which unite with theme “user friendly” land use on a more efficient and effective site. The result of this research is landscape design development of Manggarai integrated station. Its consists of landscape design in west and east area, transition area, parking area, solar panel area, and social interaction area.

Rabi cropped area forecasting of parts of Banaskatha District,Gujarat using MRS RISAT-1 SAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parekh, R. A.; Mehta, R. L.; Vyas, A.

2016-10-01

Radar sensors can be used for large-scale vegetation mapping and monitoring using backscatter coefficients in different polarisations and wavelength bands. Due to cloud and haze interference, optical images are not always available at all phonological stages important for crop discrimination. Moreover, in cloud prone areas, exclusively SAR approach would provide operational solution. This paper presents the results of classifying the cropped and non cropped areas using multi-temporal SAR images. Dual polarised C- band RISAT MRS (Medium Resolution ScanSAR mode) data were acquired on 9thDec. 2012, 28thJan. 2013 and 22nd Feb. 2013 at 18m spatial resolution. Intensity images of two polarisations (HH, HV) were extracted and converted into backscattering coefficient images. Cross polarisation ratio (CPR) images and Radar fractional vegetation density index (RFDI) were created from the temporal data and integrated with the multi-temporal images. Signatures of cropped and un-cropped areas were used for maximum likelihood supervised classification. Separability in cropped and umcropped classes using different polarisation combinations and classification accuracy analysis was carried out. FCC (False Color Composite) prepared using best three SAR polarisations in the data set was compared with LISS-III (Linear Imaging Self-Scanning System-III) image. The acreage under rabi crops was estimated. The methodology developed was for rabi cropped area, due to availability of SAR data of rabi season. Though, the approach is more relevant for acreage estimation of kharif crops when frequent cloud cover condition prevails during monsoon season and optical sensors fail to deliver good quality images.

The prediction of leaf area index from forest polygons decomposed through the integration of remote sensing, GIS, UNIX, and C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wulder, M. A.

1998-03-01

Forest stand data are normally stored in a geographic information system (GIS) on the basis of areas of similar species combinations. Polygons are created based upon species assemblages and given labels relating the percentage of areal coverage by each significant species type within the specified area. As a result, estimation of leaf area index (LAI) from the digital numbers found within GIS-stored polygons lack accuracy as the predictive equations for LAI are normally developed for individual species, not species assemblages. A Landsat TM image was acquired to enable a classification which allows for the decomposition of forest-stand polygons into greater species detail. Knowledge of the actual internal composition of the stand polygons provides for computation of LAI values based upon the appropriate predictive equation resulting in higher accuracy of these estimates. To accomplish this goal it was necessary to extract, for each cover type in each polygon, descriptive values to represent the digital numbers located in that portion of the polygon. The classified image dictates the species composition of the various portions of the polygon and within these areas the raster pixel values are tabulated and averaged. Due to a lack of existing software tools to assess the raster values occurring within GIS polygons a combination of remote sensing, GIS, UNIX, and specifically coded C programs were necessary. Such tools are frequently used by the spatial analyst and indicate the complexity of what may appear to be a straight-forward spatial analysis problem.

Multicategory reclassification statistics for assessing improvements in diagnostic accuracy

PubMed Central

Li, Jialiang; Jiang, Binyan; Fine, Jason P.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we extend the definitions of the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) in the context of multicategory classification. Both measures were proposed in Pencina and others (2008. Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to reclassification and beyond. Statistics in Medicine 27, 157–172) as numeric characterizations of accuracy improvement for binary diagnostic tests and were shown to have certain advantage over analyses based on ROC curves or other regression approaches. Estimation and inference procedures for the multiclass NRI and IDI are provided in this paper along with necessary asymptotic distributional results. Simulations are conducted to study the finite-sample properties of the proposed estimators. Two medical examples are considered to illustrate our methodology. PMID:23197381

Origin and recharge rates of alluvial ground waters, Eastern Desert, Egypt.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sultan, M.; Gheith, H.; Sturchio, N. C.

2002-04-12

Stable isotope and tritium analyses of shallow ground waters in the Eastern Desert of Egypt showed that the waters were derived largely by evaporation of regional precipitation and at least partly from precipitation in the past 45 y. To estimate the ground water recharge rate, we developed an integrated hydrologic model based on satellite data, geologic maps, infiltration parameters, and spatial rainfall distribution. Modeling indicated that during a severe 1994 storm, recharge through transmission loss in Wadi El-Tarfa was 21% of the precipitation volume. From archival precipitation data, we estimate that the annual recharge rate for the El-Tarfa alluvial aquifermore » is 4.7 x 10{sup 6} m{sup 3}. Implications for the use of renewable ground waters in arid areas of Egypt and in neighboring countries are clear.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, D.S.

The potential of geothermal energy for future electric power generation in New York State is evaluated using estimates of temperatures of geothermal reservoir rocks. Bottom hole temperatures from over 2000 oil and gas wells in the region were integrated into subsurface maps of the temperatures for specific geothermal reservoirs. The Theresa/Potsdam formation provides the best potential for extraction of high volumes of geothermal fluids. The evaluation of the Theresa/Potsdam geothermal reservoir in upstate New York suggests that an area 30 miles east of Elmira, New York has the highest temperatures in the reservoir rock. The Theresa/Potsdam reservoir rock should havemore » temperatures about 136 {degrees}C and may have as much as 450 feet of porosity in excess of 8%. Estimates of the volumes of geothermal fluids that can be extracted are provided and environmental considerations for production from a geothermal well is discussed.« less

Statistical properties of alternative national forest inventory area estimators

Treesearch

Francis Roesch; John Coulston; Andrew D. Hill

2012-01-01

The statistical properties of potential estimators of forest area for the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program are presented and discussed. The current FIA area estimator is compared and contrasted with a weighted mean estimator and an estimator based on the Polya posterior, in the presence of nonresponse. Estimator optimality is...

Evaluating mortality rates with a novel integrated framework for nonmonogamous species.

PubMed

Tenan, Simone; Iemma, Aaron; Bragalanti, Natalia; Pedrini, Paolo; De Barba, Marta; Randi, Ettore; Groff, Claudio; Genovart, Meritxell

2016-12-01

The conservation of wildlife requires management based on quantitative evidence, and especially for large carnivores, unraveling cause-specific mortalities and understanding their impact on population dynamics is crucial. Acquiring this knowledge is challenging because it is difficult to obtain robust long-term data sets on endangered populations and, usually, data are collected through diverse sampling strategies. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a way to integrate data generated through different processes. However, IPMs are female-based models that cannot account for mate availability, and this feature limits their applicability to monogamous species only. We extended classical IPMs to a two-sex framework that allows investigation of population dynamics and quantification of cause-specific mortality rates in nonmonogamous species. We illustrated our approach by simultaneously modeling different types of data from a reintroduced, unhunted brown bear (Ursus arctos) population living in an area with a dense human population. In a population mainly driven by adult survival, we estimated that on average 11% of cubs and 61% of adults died from human-related causes. Although the population is currently not at risk, adult survival and thus population dynamics are driven by anthropogenic mortality. Given the recent increase of human-bear conflicts in the area, removal of individuals for management purposes and through poaching may increase, reversing the positive population growth rate. Our approach can be generalized to other species affected by cause-specific mortality and will be useful to inform conservation decisions for other nonmonogamous species, such as most large carnivores, for which data are scarce and diverse and thus data integration is highly desirable. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Impact of induced seismic events on seal integrity, Texas Gulf Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Meckel, Timothy A.; Carr, David A.

Recent publications have suggested that large-scale CO 2 injection could trigger earthquakes and that even small- to moderate-sized earthquakes may threaten the seal integrity of the injection zone, and potentially damage buildings and other surface structures. In this study, we compared seal thickness to estimated fault displacement due to a single hypothetical seismic event in a selected area of the Texas Gulf Coast comprising an offshore strip of state waters along two Texas counties. To evaluate the slip generated by a single seismic event, we compiled well log information on shale/sand sequences and seismic information on fault geometric characteristics ofmore » a section of Lower Miocene age. The section is thousands of feet thick and is overlain and underlain by marine shales (Amph. B and Anahuac, respectively) that are relatively easy to correlate between wells. The Amph. B. shale is the secondary and ultimate seal for all injection intervals in the Lower Miocene. Given its thickness, no realistic seismic event or small series of seismic events will offset it significantly. However, this may not be true of smaller local primary seals. An analysis of geophysical logs of a total of 71 wells yielded a total of 2,871 sand / shale binary intervals. An analysis of the dedicated 3D seismic survey counted 723 fault traces at five roughly horizontal horizons within the Lower Miocene Fault displacement estimated using the product of the fault length times an uncertain multiplier coefficient assumed to follow a triangular distribution with a 10 -3 to 10 -5 range and a mode of 8 × 10 -5. We then compared estimated single-event fault displacements to seal thicknesses by means of a Monte-Carlo analysis. Only 1.8% of thickness/displacement pairs display a displacement greater than 20% of the seal thickness. Only 0.26% of the pairs result in a displacement of half the seal thickness and only 0.05% of thickness/displacement pairs result in a clear seal rupture. The next step was to compare the magnitude of the event generated by such a displacement to documented magnitudes of “large” earthquakes generated by waterflooding and fluid disposal. Based on this analysis, we conclude that seismicity that may arise from CO 2 injection appears not to be a serious complication for CO 2 storage integrity, at least in the Gulf Coast area.« less

Impact of induced seismic events on seal integrity, Texas Gulf Coast

DOE PAGES

Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Meckel, Timothy A.; Carr, David A.; ...

2014-12-31

Recent publications have suggested that large-scale CO 2 injection could trigger earthquakes and that even small- to moderate-sized earthquakes may threaten the seal integrity of the injection zone, and potentially damage buildings and other surface structures. In this study, we compared seal thickness to estimated fault displacement due to a single hypothetical seismic event in a selected area of the Texas Gulf Coast comprising an offshore strip of state waters along two Texas counties. To evaluate the slip generated by a single seismic event, we compiled well log information on shale/sand sequences and seismic information on fault geometric characteristics ofmore » a section of Lower Miocene age. The section is thousands of feet thick and is overlain and underlain by marine shales (Amph. B and Anahuac, respectively) that are relatively easy to correlate between wells. The Amph. B. shale is the secondary and ultimate seal for all injection intervals in the Lower Miocene. Given its thickness, no realistic seismic event or small series of seismic events will offset it significantly. However, this may not be true of smaller local primary seals. An analysis of geophysical logs of a total of 71 wells yielded a total of 2,871 sand / shale binary intervals. An analysis of the dedicated 3D seismic survey counted 723 fault traces at five roughly horizontal horizons within the Lower Miocene Fault displacement estimated using the product of the fault length times an uncertain multiplier coefficient assumed to follow a triangular distribution with a 10 -3 to 10 -5 range and a mode of 8 × 10 -5. We then compared estimated single-event fault displacements to seal thicknesses by means of a Monte-Carlo analysis. Only 1.8% of thickness/displacement pairs display a displacement greater than 20% of the seal thickness. Only 0.26% of the pairs result in a displacement of half the seal thickness and only 0.05% of thickness/displacement pairs result in a clear seal rupture. The next step was to compare the magnitude of the event generated by such a displacement to documented magnitudes of “large” earthquakes generated by waterflooding and fluid disposal. Based on this analysis, we conclude that seismicity that may arise from CO 2 injection appears not to be a serious complication for CO 2 storage integrity, at least in the Gulf Coast area.« less

Satellite-based high-resolution mapping of rainfall over southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Hanna; Drönner, Johannes; Nauss, Thomas

2017-06-01

A spatially explicit mapping of rainfall is necessary for southern Africa for eco-climatological studies or nowcasting but accurate estimates are still a challenging task. This study presents a method to estimate hourly rainfall based on data from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Rainfall measurements from about 350 weather stations from 2010-2014 served as ground truth for calibration and validation. SEVIRI and weather station data were used to train neural networks that allowed the estimation of rainfall area and rainfall quantities over all times of the day. The results revealed that 60 % of recorded rainfall events were correctly classified by the model (probability of detection, POD). However, the false alarm ratio (FAR) was high (0.80), leading to a Heidke skill score (HSS) of 0.18. Estimated hourly rainfall quantities were estimated with an average hourly correlation of ρ = 0. 33 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.72. The correlation increased with temporal aggregation to 0.52 (daily), 0.67 (weekly) and 0.71 (monthly). The main weakness was the overestimation of rainfall events. The model results were compared to the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Despite being a comparably simple approach, the presented MSG-based rainfall retrieval outperformed GPM IMERG in terms of rainfall area detection: GPM IMERG had a considerably lower POD. The HSS was not significantly different compared to the MSG-based retrieval due to a lower FAR of GPM IMERG. There were no further significant differences between the MSG-based retrieval and GPM IMERG in terms of correlation with the observed rainfall quantities. The MSG-based retrieval, however, provides rainfall in a higher spatial resolution. Though estimating rainfall from satellite data remains challenging, especially at high temporal resolutions, this study showed promising results towards improved spatio-temporal estimates of rainfall over southern Africa.

Error Estimates for Numerical Integration Rules

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mercer, Peter R.

2005-01-01

The starting point for this discussion of error estimates is the fact that integrals that arise in Fourier series have properties that can be used to get improved bounds. This idea is extended to more general situations.

Laser line scan performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, Kevin L.; Schofield, Oscar; Kerfoot, John; Giddings, Tom; Shirron, Joe; Twardowski, Mike

2007-09-01

The effectiveness of sensors that use optical measurements for the laser detection and identification of subsurface mines is directly related to water clarity. The primary objective of the work presented here was to use the optical data collected by UUV (Slocum Glider) surveys of an operational areas to estimate the performance of an electro-optical identification (EOID) Laser Line Scan (LLS) system during RIMPAC 06, an international naval exercise off the coast of Hawaii. Measurements of optical backscattering and beam attenuation were made with a Wet Labs, Inc. Scattering Absorption Meter (SAM), mounted on a Rutgers University/Webb Research Slocum glider. The optical data universally indicated extremely clear water in the operational area, except very close to shore. The beam-c values from the SAM sensor were integrated to three attenuation lengths to provide an estimate of how well the LLS would perform in detecting and identifying mines in the operational areas. Additionally, the processed in situ optical data served as near-real-time input to the Electro-Optic Detection Simulator, ver. 3 (EODES-3; Metron, Inc.) model for EOID performance prediction. Both methods of predicting LLS performance suggested a high probability of detection and probability of identification. These predictions were validated by the actual performance of the LLS as the EOID system yielded imagery from which reliable mine identification could be made. Future plans include repeating this work in more optically challenging water types to demonstrate the utility of pre-mission UUV surveys of operational areas as a tactical decision aid for planning EOID missions.

Incorporating GIS building data and census housing statistics for sub-block-level population estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, S.-S.; Wang, L.; Qiu, X.

2008-01-01

This article presents a deterministic model for sub-block-level population estimation based on the total building volumes derived from geographic information system (GIS) building data and three census block-level housing statistics. To assess the model, we generated artificial blocks by aggregating census block areas and calculating the respective housing statistics. We then applied the model to estimate populations for sub-artificial-block areas and assessed the estimates with census populations of the areas. Our analyses indicate that the average percent error of population estimation for sub-artificial-block areas is comparable to those for sub-census-block areas of the same size relative to associated blocks. The smaller the sub-block-level areas, the higher the population estimation errors. For example, the average percent error for residential areas is approximately 0.11 percent for 100 percent block areas and 35 percent for 5 percent block areas.

Surface albedo from bidirectional reflectance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, K. J.; Irons, J. R.; Daughtry, C. S. T.

1991-01-01

The validity of integrating over discrete wavelength bands is examined to estimate total shortwave bidirectional reflectance of vegetated and bare soil surfaces. Methods for estimating albedo from multiple angle, discrete wavelength band radiometer measurements are studied. These methods include a numerical integration technique and the integration of an empirically derived equation for bidirectional reflectance. It is concluded that shortwave albedos estimated through both techniques agree favorably with the independent pyranometer measurements. Absolute rms errors are found to be 0.5 percent or less for both grass sod and bare soil surfaces.

Integration of EEG source imaging and fMRI during continuous viewing of natural movies.

PubMed

Whittingstall, Kevin; Bartels, Andreas; Singh, Vanessa; Kwon, Soyoung; Logothetis, Nikos K

2010-10-01

Electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) are noninvasive neuroimaging tools which can be used to measure brain activity with excellent temporal and spatial resolution, respectively. By combining the neural and hemodynamic recordings from these modalities, we can gain better insight into how and where the brain processes complex stimuli, which may be especially useful in patients with different neural diseases. However, due to their vastly different spatial and temporal resolutions, the integration of EEG and fMRI recordings is not always straightforward. One fundamental obstacle has been that paradigms used for EEG experiments usually rely on event-related paradigms, while fMRI is not limited in this regard. Therefore, here we ask whether one can reliably localize stimulus-driven EEG activity using the continuously varying feature intensities occurring in natural movie stimuli presented over relatively long periods of time. Specifically, we asked whether stimulus-driven aspects in the EEG signal would be co-localized with the corresponding stimulus-driven BOLD signal during free viewing of a movie. Secondly, we wanted to integrate the EEG signal directly with the BOLD signal, by estimating the underlying impulse response function (IRF) that relates the BOLD signal to the underlying current density in the primary visual area (V1). We made sequential fMRI and 64-channel EEG recordings in seven subjects who passively watched 2-min-long segments of a James Bond movie. To analyze EEG data in this natural setting, we developed a method based on independent component analysis (ICA) to reject EEG artifacts due to blinks, subject movement, etc., in a way unbiased by human judgment. We then calculated the EEG source strength of this artifact-free data at each time point of the movie within the entire brain volume using low-resolution electromagnetic tomography (LORETA). This provided for every voxel in the brain (i.e., in 3D space) an estimate of the current density at every time point. We then carried out a correlation between the time series of visual contrast changes in the movie with that of EEG voxels. We found the most significant correlations in visual area V1, just as seen in previous fMRI studies (Bartels A, Zeki, S, Logothetis NK. Natural vision reveals regional specialization to local motion and to contrast-invariant, global flow in the human brain. Cereb Cortex 2008;18(3):705-717), but on the time scale of milliseconds rather than of seconds. To obtain an estimate of how the EEG signal relates to the BOLD signal, we calculated the IRF between the BOLD signal and the estimated current density in area V1. We found that this IRF was very similar to that observed using combined intracortical recordings and fMRI experiments in nonhuman primates. Taken together, these findings open a new approach to noninvasive mapping of the brain. It allows, firstly, the localization of feature-selective brain areas during natural viewing conditions with the temporal resolution of EEG. Secondly, it provides a tool to assess EEG/BOLD transfer functions during processing of more natural stimuli. This is especially useful in combined EEG/fMRI experiments, where one can now potentially study neural-hemodynamic relationships across the whole brain volume in a noninvasive manner. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Where have all the people gone? Enhancing global conservation using night lights and social media.

PubMed

Levin, Noam; Kark, Salit; Crandall, David

2015-12-01

Conservation prioritization at large scales is complex, combining biological, environmental, and social factors. While conservation scientists now more often aim to incorporate human-related factors, a critical yet unquantified challenge remains: to identify which areas people use for recreation outside urban centers. To address this gap in applied ecology and conservation, we developed a novel approach for quantifying human presence beyond populated areas by combining social media "big data" and remote sensing tools. We used data from the Flickr photo-sharing website as a surrogate for identifying spatial variation in visitation globally, and complemented this estimate with spatially explicit information on stable night lights between 2004 and 2012, used as a proxy for identifying urban and industrial centers. Natural and seminatural areas attracting visitors were defined as areas both highly photographed and non-lit. The number of Flickr photographers within protected areas was found to be a reliable surrogate for estimating visitor numbers as confirmed by local authority censuses (r = 0.8). Half of all visitors' photos taken in protected areas originated from under 1% of all protected areas on Earth (250 of -27 000). The most photographed protected areas globally included Yosemite and Yellowstone National Parks (USA), and the Lake and Peak Districts (UK). Factors explaining the spatial variation in protected areas Flickr photo coverage included their type (e.g., UNESCO World Heritage sites have higher visitation) and accessibility to roads and trails. Using this approach, we identified photography hotspots, which draw many visitors and are also unlit (i.e., are located outside urban centers), but currently remain largely unprotected, such as Brazil's Pantanal and Bolivia's Salar de Uyuni. The integrated big data approach developed here demonstrates the benefits of combining remote sensing sources and novel geo-tagged and crowd-sourced information from social media in future efforts to identify spatial conservation gaps and pressures in real time, and their spatial and temporal variation globally.

Self-rated health: small area large area comparisons amongst older adults at the state, district and sub-district level in India.

PubMed

Hirve, Siddhivinayak; Vounatsou, Penelope; Juvekar, Sanjay; Blomstedt, Yulia; Wall, Stig; Chatterji, Somnath; Ng, Nawi

2014-03-01

We compared prevalence estimates of self-rated health (SRH) derived indirectly using four different small area estimation methods for the Vadu (small) area from the national Study on Global AGEing (SAGE) survey with estimates derived directly from the Vadu SAGE survey. The indirect synthetic estimate for Vadu was 24% whereas the model based estimates were 45.6% and 45.7% with smaller prediction errors and comparable to the direct survey estimate of 50%. The model based techniques were better suited to estimate the prevalence of SRH than the indirect synthetic method. We conclude that a simplified mixed effects regression model can produce valid small area estimates of SRH. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Automatic detection, tracking and sensor integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trunk, G. V.

1988-06-01

This report surveys the state of the art of automatic detection, tracking, and sensor integration. In the area of detection, various noncoherent integrators such as the moving window integrator, feedback integrator, two-pole filter, binary integrator, and batch processor are discussed. Next, the three techniques for controlling false alarms, adapting thresholds, nonparametric detectors, and clutter maps are presented. In the area of tracking, a general outline is given of a track-while-scan system, and then a discussion is presented of the file system, contact-entry logic, coordinate systems, tracking filters, maneuver-following logic, tracking initiating, track-drop logic, and correlation procedures. Finally, in the area of multisensor integration the problems of colocated-radar integration, multisite-radar integration, radar-IFF integration, and radar-DF bearing strobe integration are treated.

Stereological estimation of cell wall density of DR12 tomato mutant using three-dimensional confocal imaging

PubMed Central

Legland, David; Guillon, Fabienne; Kiêu, Kiên; Bouchet, Brigitte; Devaux, Marie-Françoise

2010-01-01

Background and Aims The cellular structure of fleshy fruits is of interest to study fruit shape, size, mechanical behaviour or sensory texture. The cellular structure is usually not observed in the whole fruit but, instead, in a sample of limited size and volume. It is therefore difficult to extend measurements to the whole fruit and/or to a specific genotype, or to describe the cellular structure heterogeneity within the fruit. Methods An integrated method is presented to describe the cellular structure of the whole fruit from partial three-dimensional (3D) observations, involving the following steps: (1) fruit sampling, (2) 3D image acquisition and processing and (3) measurement and estimation of relevant 3D morphological parameters. This method was applied to characterize DR12 mutant and wild-type tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum). Key Results The cellular structure was described using the total volume of the pericarp, the surface area of the cell walls and the ratio of cell-wall surface area to pericarp volume, referred to as the cell-wall surface density. The heterogeneity of cellular structure within the fruit was investigated by estimating variations in the cell-wall surface density with distance to the epidermis. Conclusions The DR12 mutant presents a greater pericarp volume and an increase of cell-wall surface density under the epidermis. PMID:19952012

Biomass Combustions and Burning Emissions Inferred from GOES Fire Radiative Power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Kondragunta, S.; Schmidt, C.

2007-12-01

Biomass burning significantly affects air quality and climate changes. Current estimates of burning emissions are rather imprecise and vary markedly with different methodologies. This paper investigates biomass burning consumption and emissions using GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites) WF_ABBA (Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm) fire product. In doing this, we establish a set of representatives in diurnal patterns of half-hourly GOES Fire Radiative Power (FRP) for various ecosystems. The representative patterns are used to fill the missed and poor observations of half hourly FRP in GOES fire data for individual fire pixels. The simulated FRP is directly applied to the calculation of the biomass combusted during fire activities. The FRP-based biomass combustion is evaluated using the estimates using a traditional model which integrates burned area, fuel loading, and combustion factor. In the traditional model calculation, we derive burned areas from GOES WF_ABBA fire size. Fuel loading includes three different types (1) MODIS Vegetation Property-based Fuel System (MVPFS), (2) National Dangerous Rating Systems (NFDRS), and (3) the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS). By comparing the biomass combustions across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2003-2005, we conclude that FRP is an effective tool to estimate the biomass burning emissions. Finally, we examine the temporal and spatial patterns in biomass combustions and emissions (PM2.5, CO, NH3) across the CONUS.

Canopy reflectance modeling in a tropical wooded grassland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonett, David

1988-01-01

The Li-Strahler canopy reflectance model, driven by LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data, provided regional estimates of tree size and density in two bioclimatic zones in Africa. This model exploits tree geometry in an inversion technique to predict average tree size and density from reflectance data using a few simple patameters measured in the field and in the imagery. Reflectance properties of the trees were measured in the study sites using a pole-mounted radiometer. The measurements showed that the assumptions of the simple Li-Strahler model are reasonable for these woodlands. The field radiometer measurements were used to calculate the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the integrated NDVI over the canopy was related to crown volume. Predictions of tree size and density from the canopy model were used with allometric equations from the literature to estimate woody biomass and potential foliar biomass for the sites and for the regions. Estimates were compared with independent measurements made in the Sahelian sites, and to typical values from the literature for these regions and for similar woodlands. In order to apply the inversion procedure regionally, an area must first be stratified into woodland cover classes, and dry-season TM data were used to generate a stratum map of the study areas with reasonable accuracy. The method used was unsupervised classification of multi-data principal components images.

Reconnaissance investigation of the placer gold deposits in the Zarkashan Area of Interest, Ghazni Province, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malpeli, Katherine C.; Chirico, Peter G.; McLoughlin, Isabel H.

2013-01-01

This study is a reconnaissance investigation of the placer gold deposits in the Zarkashan Area of Interest (AOI) in Ghazni Province, Afghanistan. Detailed investigations of the Zarkashan gold deposits were conducted by Soviet and Afghan geologists in the 1960s and 1970s, prior to the development of satellite-based remote-sensing platforms and new methods of geomorphic mapping. The purpose of this study was to integrate new mapping techniques with previously collected concentration and borehole sampling data and geomorphologic interpretations to reassess the placer gold deposits in the Zarkashan AOI. A methodology combining the collection and analysis of historical sampling data, digital database development, hydrologic analysis, and geomorphic modeling was used. The analysis led to the reinterpretation of four gold-bearing seams along the Zarkashan River, and the calculation of an estimated gold reserve of approximately 3,000 kilograms (kg). This estimate is approximately 1,500 kg greater than the Soviet estimate. The result differs in large part due to the reinterpretation of the seams based on a much lower cutoff grade of 100 mg/m3. Because cutoff grade is dependent in part on the price of gold, the sevenfold increase in the price of gold since the undertaking of the Soviet investigation warranted our re-evaluation of their 500 mg/m3 cutoff grade.

Changes in Quality of Health Care Delivery after Vertical Integration

PubMed Central

Carlin, Caroline S; Dowd, Bryan; Feldman, Roger

2015-01-01

Objectives To fill an empirical gap in the literature by examining changes in quality of care measures occurring when multispecialty clinic systems were acquired by hospital-owned, vertically integrated health care delivery systems in the Twin Cities area. Data Sources/Study Setting Administrative data for health plan enrollees attributed to treatment and control clinic systems, merged with U.S. Census data. Study Design We compared changes in quality measures for health plan enrollees in the acquired clinics to enrollees in nine control groups using a differences-in-differences model. Our dataset spans 2 years prior to and 4 years after the acquisitions. We estimated probit models with errors clustered within enrollees. Data Collection/Extraction Methods Data were assembled by the health plan’s informatics team. Principal Findings Vertical integration is associated with increased rates of colorectal and cervical cancer screening and more appropriate emergency department use. The probability of ambulatory care–sensitive admissions increased when the acquisition caused disruption in admitting patterns. Conclusions Moving a clinic system into a vertically integrated delivery system resulted in limited increases in quality of care indicators. Caution is warranted when the acquisition causes disruption in referral patterns. PMID:25529312

An integrated approach to energy recovery from biomass and waste: Anaerobic digestion-gasification-water treatment.

PubMed

Milani, M; Montorsi, L; Stefani, M

2014-07-01

The article investigates the performance of an integrated system for the energy recovery from biomass and waste based on anaerobic digestion, gasification and water treatment. In the proposed system, the organic fraction of waste of the digestible biomass is fed into an anaerobic digester, while a part of the combustible fraction of the municipal solid waste is gasified. Thus, the obtained biogas and syngas are used as a fuel for running a cogeneration system based on an internal combustion engine to produce electric and thermal power. The waste water produced by the integrated plant is recovered by means of both forward and inverse osmosis. The different processes, as well as the main components of the system, are modelled by means of a lumped and distributed parameter approach and the main outputs of the integrated plant such as the electric and thermal power and the amount of purified water are calculated. Finally, the implementation of the proposed system is evaluated for urban areas with a different number of inhabitants and the relating performance is estimated in terms of the main outputs of the system. © The Author(s) 2014.

Integrated satellite data fusion and mining for monitoring lake water quality status of the Albufera de Valencia in Spain.

PubMed

Doña, Carolina; Chang, Ni-Bin; Caselles, Vicente; Sánchez, Juan M; Camacho, Antonio; Delegido, Jesús; Vannah, Benjamin W

2015-03-15

Lake eutrophication is a critical issue in the interplay of water supply, environmental management, and ecosystem conservation. Integrated sensing, monitoring, and modeling for a holistic lake water quality assessment with respect to multiple constituents is in acute need. The aim of this paper is to develop an integrated algorithm for data fusion and mining of satellite remote sensing images to generate daily estimates of some water quality parameters of interest, such as chlorophyll a concentrations and water transparency, to be applied for the assessment of the hypertrophic Albufera de Valencia. The Albufera de Valencia is the largest freshwater lake in Spain, which can often present values of chlorophyll a concentration over 200 mg m(-3) and values of transparency (Secchi Disk, SD) as low as 20 cm. Remote sensing data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhance Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images were fused to carry out an integrative near-real time water quality assessment on a daily basis. Landsat images are useful to study the spatial variability of the water quality parameters, due to its spatial resolution of 30 m, in comparison to the low spatial resolution (250/500 m) of MODIS. While Landsat offers a high spatial resolution, the low temporal resolution of 16 days is a significant drawback to achieve a near real-time monitoring system. This gap may be bridged by using MODIS images that have a high temporal resolution of 1 day, in spite of its low spatial resolution. Synthetic Landsat images were fused for dates with no Landsat overpass over the study area. Finally, with a suite of ground truth data, a few genetic programming (GP) models were derived to estimate the water quality using the fused surface reflectance data as inputs. The GP model for chlorophyll a estimation yielded a R(2) of 0.94, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 8 mg m(-3), and the GP model for water transparency estimation using Secchi disk showed a R(2) of 0.89, with an RMSE = 4 cm. With this effort, the spatiotemporal variations of water transparency and chlorophyll a concentrations may be assessed simultaneously on a daily basis throughout the lake for environmental management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flood Damage Assessment in Pearl River Delta Rural Area Application in Huashan Town, Huadu District,Guanghzou during the 2017 5.7 Heavy Rain Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.

2017-12-01

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China, the summer rain storm occurs frequently, the flood damage is very serious. Damage assessment is the basis of scientific decision-making in disaster mitigation. All approaches of flood damage analysis contain uncertainties due to the inaccuracies and generalisations used, the lack of data aggravates this problem, making methods very rough. This study presents a detailed flood damage assessment framework in Pearl River Delta rural area, using 2017 "5.7" heavy rain storm event to simulate the process and estimate the flood loss in resident building and property, agriculture production. The framework integrates four modules,1) utilize the remote sensing and statistical yearbook and so on to construct the disaster bearing bodies GIS database; 2) using hydraulics model to simulate the flood extent and depth spatial distribution;3)through field investigation to obtain the flood loss data for all kinds of hazard-affected body, using statistical analysis method to get the damage curves;4)Integrate flood scenarios, disaster bearing bodies GIS database and damage curves to calculate the flood loss estimation value. Using this methodology, in the 2017 "5.7" heavy rain storm event, Huashan Town flood damage loss is underestimate compared with the government report, because of not considering the damage of water conservancy facilities. But the disaster loss value on the spatial distribution is consistent with actual situation. In terms of aggregated values in the whole town, the model is capable of obtaining figures that are within the same order of magnitude. This study produce a flood damage assessment framework taking into account the regional characteristics of PRD rural area, provide a template for future practice. This study only considers the current impacts, the framework should be improved by taking into account socio-economic and climatic changes, as well as implementing adaptation measures to be applied to assess the potential future damages. Key words: Heavy rain storm; flood; damage assessment; Pearl River Delta; rural area

VLSI Design of Trusted Virtual Sensors.

PubMed

Martínez-Rodríguez, Macarena C; Prada-Delgado, Miguel A; Brox, Piedad; Baturone, Iluminada

2018-01-25

This work presents a Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) design of trusted virtual sensors providing a minimum unitary cost and very good figures of size, speed and power consumption. The sensed variable is estimated by a virtual sensor based on a configurable and programmable PieceWise-Affine hyper-Rectangular (PWAR) model. An algorithm is presented to find the best values of the programmable parameters given a set of (empirical or simulated) input-output data. The VLSI design of the trusted virtual sensor uses the fast authenticated encryption algorithm, AEGIS, to ensure the integrity of the provided virtual measurement and to encrypt it, and a Physical Unclonable Function (PUF) based on a Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) to ensure the integrity of the sensor itself. Implementation results of a prototype designed in a 90-nm Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) technology show that the active silicon area of the trusted virtual sensor is 0.86 mm 2 and its power consumption when trusted sensing at 50 MHz is 7.12 mW. The maximum operation frequency is 85 MHz, which allows response times lower than 0.25 μ s. As application example, the designed prototype was programmed to estimate the yaw rate in a vehicle, obtaining root mean square errors lower than 1.1%. Experimental results of the employed PUF show the robustness of the trusted sensing against aging and variations of the operation conditions, namely, temperature and power supply voltage (final value as well as ramp-up time).

Time Evolution of Integrated Precipitable Water over French Polynesia from 1974 to 2017: Metrological Analysis and Correlation with Climate Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, F.; Barriot, J. P.; Maamaatuaiahutapu, K.; Sichoix, L.; Xu, G., Sr.

2017-12-01

In order to better understand and predict the complex meteorological context of French Polynesia, we focus on the time evolution of Integrated Precipitable Water (PW) using Radiosoundings (RS) data from 1974 to 2017. In a first step, we make a comparison over selected months between the PW estimate reconstructed from raw two seconds acquisition and the PW estimate reconstructed from the highly compressed and undersampled Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA). In a second step, we make a comparison with other techniques of PW acquisition (radio delays, temperature of sky, infrared bands absorption) in order to assess the intrinsic biases of RS acquisition. In a last step, we analyze the PW time series in our area validated at the light of the first and second step, w.r.t seasonality (dry season and wet season) and spatial location. During the wet season (November to April), the PW values are higher than the corresponding values observed during the dry season (May to October). The PW values are smaller with higher latitudes, but there are higher PW values in Tahiti than in other islands because of the presence of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) around Tahiti. All the PW time series show the same uptrend in French Polynesia in recent years. This study provides further evidence that the PW time series derived from RS can be assimilated in weather forecasting and climate warming models.

VLSI Design of Trusted Virtual Sensors

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This work presents a Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) design of trusted virtual sensors providing a minimum unitary cost and very good figures of size, speed and power consumption. The sensed variable is estimated by a virtual sensor based on a configurable and programmable PieceWise-Affine hyper-Rectangular (PWAR) model. An algorithm is presented to find the best values of the programmable parameters given a set of (empirical or simulated) input-output data. The VLSI design of the trusted virtual sensor uses the fast authenticated encryption algorithm, AEGIS, to ensure the integrity of the provided virtual measurement and to encrypt it, and a Physical Unclonable Function (PUF) based on a Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) to ensure the integrity of the sensor itself. Implementation results of a prototype designed in a 90-nm Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) technology show that the active silicon area of the trusted virtual sensor is 0.86 mm2 and its power consumption when trusted sensing at 50 MHz is 7.12 mW. The maximum operation frequency is 85 MHz, which allows response times lower than 0.25 μs. As application example, the designed prototype was programmed to estimate the yaw rate in a vehicle, obtaining root mean square errors lower than 1.1%. Experimental results of the employed PUF show the robustness of the trusted sensing against aging and variations of the operation conditions, namely, temperature and power supply voltage (final value as well as ramp-up time). PMID:29370141

A polar-region-adaptable systematic bias collaborative measurement method for shipboard redundant rotational inertial navigation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lin; Wu, Wenqi; Wei, Guo; Lian, Junxiang; Yu, Ruihang

2018-05-01

The shipboard redundant rotational inertial navigation system (RINS) configuration, including a dual-axis RINS and a single-axis RINS, can satisfy the demand of marine INSs of especially high reliability as well as achieving trade-off between position accuracy and cost. Generally, the dual-axis RINS is the master INS, and the single-axis RINS is the hot backup INS for high reliability purposes. An integrity monitoring system performs a fault detection function to ensure sailing safety. However, improving the accuracy of the backup INS in case of master INS failure has not been given enough attention. Without the aid of any external information, a systematic bias collaborative measurement method based on an augmented Kalman filter is proposed for the redundant RINSs. Estimates of inertial sensor biases can be used by the built-in integrity monitoring system to monitor the RINS running condition. On the other hand, a position error prediction model is designed for the single-axis RINS to estimate the systematic error caused by its azimuth gyro bias. After position error compensation, the position information provided by the single-axis RINS still remains highly accurate, even if the integrity monitoring system detects a dual-axis RINS fault. Moreover, use of a grid frame as a navigation frame makes the proposed method applicable in any area, including the polar regions. Semi-physical simulation and experiments including sea trials verify the validity of the method.

A comparison of small-area estimation techniques to estimate selected stand attributes using LiDAR-derived auxiliary variables

Treesearch

Michael E. Goerndt; Vicente J. Monleon; Hailemariam Temesgen

2011-01-01

One of the challenges often faced in forestry is the estimation of forest attributes for smaller areas of interest within a larger population. Small-area estimation (SAE) is a set of techniques well suited to estimation of forest attributes for small areas in which the existing sample size is small and auxiliary information is available. Selected SAE methods were...

Measurement-Based Investigation of Inter- and Intra-Area Effects of Wind Power Plant Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Alicia J.; Singh, Mohit; Muljadi, Eduard

This paper has a two pronged objective: the first objective is to analyze the general effects of wind power plant (WPP) integration and the resulting displacement of conventional power plant (CPP) inertia on power system stability and the second is to demonstrate the efficacy of PMU data in power system stability analyses, specifically when knowledge of the network is incomplete. Traditionally modal analysis applies small signal stability analysis based on Eigenvalues and the assumption of complete knowledge of the network and all of its components. The analysis presented here differs because it is a measurement-based investigation and employs simulated measurementmore » data. Even if knowledge of the network were incomplete, this methodology would allow for monitoring and analysis of modes. This allows non-utility entities and study of power system stability. To generate inter- and intra-area modes, Kundur's well-known two-area four-generator system is modeled in PSCAD/EMTDC. A doubly-fed induction generator based WPP model, based on the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) standard model, is included to analyze the effects of wind power on system modes. The two-area system and WPP are connected in various configurations with respect to WPP placement, CPP inertia and WPP penetration level. Analysis is performed on the data generated by the simulations. For each simulation run, a different configuration is chosen and a large disturbance is applied. The sampling frequency is set to resemble the sampling frequency at which data is available from phasor measurement units (PMUs). The estimate of power spectral density of these signals is made using the Yule-Walker algorithm. The resulting analysis shows that the presence of a WPP does not, of itself, lead to the introduction of new modes. The analysis also shows however that displacement of inertia may lead to introduction of new modes. The effects of location of inertia displacement (i.e. the effects on modes if WPP integration leads to displacement of inertia in its own region or in another region) and of WPP controls such as droop control and synthetic inertia are also examined. In future work, the methods presented here will be applied to real-world phasor data to examine the effects of integration of variable generation and displacement of CPP inertia on inter- and intra-area modes.« less

Surface temperature monitoring by integrating satellite data and ground thermal camera network on Solfatara Crater in Campi Flegrei volcanic area (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buongiorno, M. F.; Musacchio, M.; Silvestri, M.; Vilardo, G.; Sansivero, F.; caPUTO, T.; bellucci Sessa, E.; Pieri, D. C.

2017-12-01

Current satellite missions providing imagery in the TIR region at high spatial resolution offer the possibility to estimate the surface temperature in volcanic area contributing in understanding the ongoing phenomena to mitigate the volcanic risk when population are exposed. The Campi Flegrei volcanic area (Italy) is part of the Napolitan volcanic district and its monitored by INGV ground networks including thermal cameras. TIRS on LANDSAT and ASTER on NASA-TERRA provide thermal IR channels to monitor the evolution of the surface temperatures on Campi Flegrei area. The spatial resolution of the TIR data is 100 m for LANDSAT8 and 90 m for ASTER, temporal resolution is 16 days for both satellites. TIRNet network has been developed by INGV for long-term volcanic surveillance of the Flegrei Fields through the acquisition of thermal infrared images. The system is currently comprised of 5 permanent stations equipped with FLIR A645SC thermo cameras with a 640x480 resolution IR sensor. To improve the systematic use of satellite data in the monitor procedures of Volcanic Observatories a suitable integration and validation strategy is needed, also considering that current satellite missions do not provide TIR data with optimal characteristics to observe small thermal anomalies that may indicate changes in the volcanic activity. The presented procedure has been applied to the analysis of Solfatara Crater and is based on 2 different steps: 1) parallel processing chains to produce ground temperature data both from satellite and ground cameras; 2) data integration and comparison. The ground cameras images generally correspond to views of portion of the crater slopes characterized by significant thermal anomalies due to fumarole fields. In order to compare the satellite and ground cameras it has been necessary to take into account the observation geometries. All thermal images of the TIRNet have been georeferenced to the UTM WGS84 system, a regular grid of 30x30 meters has been created to select polygonal areas corresponding only to the cells containing the georeferenced TIR images acquired by different TIRnet stations. Preliminary results of this integration approach has been analyzed in order to produce systematic reports to the Italian Civil Protection for the Napolitan Volcanoes.

Development of coaxial ultrasonic probe for fatty liver diagnostic system using ultrasonic velocity change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, Makoto; Yokota, Daiki; Aotani, Yuhei; Kumagai, Yuta; Wada, Kenji; Matsunaka, Toshiyuki; Morikawa, Hiroyasu; Horinaka, Hiromichi

2017-07-01

A diagnostic system for fatty liver at an early stage is needed because fatty liver is linked to metabolic syndrome. We have already proposed a fatty liver diagnosis method based on the temperature coefficient of ultrasonic velocity. In this study, we fabricated a coaxial ultrasonic probe by integrating two kinds of transducers for warming and signal detection. The diagnosis system equipped with the coaxial probe was applied to tissue-mimicking phantoms including the fat area. The fat content rates corresponding to the set rates of the phantoms were estimated by the ultrasonic velocity-change method.

Application of future remote sensing systems to irrigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, L. D.

1982-01-01

Area estimates of irrigated crops and knowledge of crop type are required for modeling water consumption to assist farmers, rangers, and agricultural consultants in scheduling irrigation for distributed management of crop yields. Information on canopy physiology and soil moisture status on a spatial basis is potentially available from remote sensors, so the questions to be addressed relate to: (1) timing (data frequency, instantaneous and integrated measurement); and scheduling (widely distributed spatial demands); (2) spatial resolution; (3) radiometric and geometric accuracy and geoencoding; and (4) information/data distribution. This latter should be overnight, with no central storage, onsite capture, and low cost.

Satellite-aided evaluation of population exposure to air pollution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Todd, W. J.; George, A. J., Jr.; Bryant, N. A.

1979-01-01

The evaluation of population exposure to air pollution through the computer processing of Landsat digital land use data, along with total suspended particulate estimates and population data by census tracts, is demonstrated. Digital image processing was employed to analyze simultaneously data from Landsat MSS bands 4 through 7 in order to extract land use and land cover information. The three data sets were spatially registered in a digital format, compatible with integrated computer processing, and cross-tabulated. A map illustrating relative air quality by 2-sq km cells for the residential population in the Portland, Oregon area is obtained.

Applications of the BIOPHYS Algorithm for Physically-Based Retrieval of Biophysical, Structural and Forest Disturbance Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peddle, Derek R.; Huemmrich, K. Fred; Hall, Forrest G.; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Soenen, Scott A.; Jackson, Chris D.

2011-01-01

Canopy reflectance model inversion using look-up table approaches provides powerful and flexible options for deriving improved forest biophysical structural information (BSI) compared with traditional statistical empirical methods. The BIOPHYS algorithm is an improved, physically-based inversion approach for deriving BSI for independent use and validation and for monitoring, inventory and quantifying forest disturbance as well as input to ecosystem, climate and carbon models. Based on the multiple-forward mode (MFM) inversion approach, BIOPHYS results were summarized from different studies (Minnesota/NASA COVER; Virginia/LEDAPS; Saskatchewan/BOREAS), sensors (airborne MMR; Landsat; MODIS) and models (GeoSail; GOMS). Applications output included forest density, height, crown dimension, branch and green leaf area, canopy cover, disturbance estimates based on multi-temporal chronosequences, and structural change following recovery from forest fires over the last century. Good correspondences with validation field data were obtained. Integrated analyses of multiple solar and view angle imagery further improved retrievals compared with single pass data. Quantifying ecosystem dynamics such as the area and percent of forest disturbance, early regrowth and succession provide essential inputs to process-driven models of carbon flux. BIOPHYS is well suited for large-area, multi-temporal applications involving multiple image sets and mosaics for assessing vegetation disturbance and quantifying biophysical structural dynamics and change. It is also suitable for integration with forest inventory, monitoring, updating, and other programs.

Strategies for the Successful Implementation of Viral Laboratory Automation

PubMed Central

Avivar, Cristóbal

2012-01-01

It has been estimated that more than 70% of all medical activity is directly related to information providing analytical data. Substantial technological advances have taken place recently, which have allowed a previously unimagined number of analytical samples to be processed while offering high quality results. Concurrently, yet more new diagnostic determinations have been introduced - all of which has led to a significant increase in the prescription of analytical parameters. This increased workload has placed great pressure on the laboratory with respect to health costs. The present manager of the Clinical Laboratory (CL) has had to examine cost control as well as rationing - meaning that the CL’s focus has not been strictly metrological, as if it were purely a system producing results, but instead has had to concentrate on its efficiency and efficacy. By applying re-engineering criteria, an emphasis has had to be placed on improved organisation and operating practice within the CL, focussing on the current criteria of the Integrated Management Areas where the technical and human resources are brought together. This re-engineering has been based on the concepts of consolidating and integrating the analytical platforms, while differentiating the production areas (CORE Laboratory) from the information areas. With these present concepts in mind, automation and virological treatment, along with serology in general, follow the same criteria as the rest of the operating methodology in the Clinical Laboratory. PMID:23248733

Potential assessment of establishing a renewable energy plant in a rural agricultural area.

PubMed

Su, Ming-Chien; Kao, Nien-Hsin; Huang, Wen-Jar

2012-06-01

An evaluation of the green energy potential generated from biogas and solar power, using agricultural manure waste and a photovoltaic (PV) system, was conducted in a large geographical area of a rural county with low population density and low pollution. The studied area, Shoufeng Township in Hualien County, is located in eastern Taiwan, where a large amount of manure waste is generated from pig farms that are scattered throughout the county. The objective of the study is to assess the possibility of establishing an integrated manure waste treatment plant by using the generated biogas incorporated with the PV system to produce renewable energy and then feed it back to the incorporated farms. A filed investigation, geographic information system (GIS) application, empirical equations development, and RETScreen modeling were conducted in the study. The results indicate that Shoufeng Township has the highest priority in setting up an integrated treatment and renewable energy plant by using GIS mapping within a 10-km radius of the transportation range. Two scenarios were plotted in assessing the renewable energy plant and the estimated electricity generation, plus the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction was evaluated. Under the current governmental green energy scheme and from a long-term perspective, the assessment shows great potential in establishing the plant, especially in reducing environmental pollution problems, waste treatment, and developing suitable renewable energy.

Strategies for the successful implementation of viral laboratory automation.

PubMed

Avivar, Cristóbal

2012-01-01

It has been estimated that more than 70% of all medical activity is directly related to information providing analytical data. Substantial technological advances have taken place recently, which have allowed a previously unimagined number of analytical samples to be processed while offering high quality results. Concurrently, yet more new diagnostic determinations have been introduced - all of which has led to a significant increase in the prescription of analytical parameters. This increased workload has placed great pressure on the laboratory with respect to health costs. The present manager of the Clinical Laboratory (CL) has had to examine cost control as well as rationing - meaning that the CL's focus has not been strictly metrological, as if it were purely a system producing results, but instead has had to concentrate on its efficiency and efficacy. By applying re-engineering criteria, an emphasis has had to be placed on improved organisation and operating practice within the CL, focussing on the current criteria of the Integrated Management Areas where the technical and human resources are brought together. This re-engineering has been based on the concepts of consolidating and integrating the analytical platforms, while differentiating the production areas (CORE Laboratory) from the information areas. With these present concepts in mind, automation and virological treatment, along with serology in general, follow the same criteria as the rest of the operating methodology in the Clinical Laboratory.

Crystallisation kinetics study in stabilisation treatment of sol-gel derived 45S5 bioglass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakrathi, S.; Matin, Mallikarjun; Kiran, P.; Manne, Bhaskar; Ramesh, M. R.

2018-04-01

Solgel gel derived bioglasses require stabilisation heat treatment to decompose nitrates and to improve mechanical stability. While decomposing nitrate phases especially in solgel derived 45S5 bioglass, it is difficult to avoid crystallisation of silicate crystalline phases (Na2CaSi2O6, Na2Ca2Si3O9) due to overlapping of nitrates decomposition and silicates crystallisation temperatures. Control of such crystallinity amount in bioglasses is at most important during stabilisation as it affects the dissolution rates of bioglassesin body fluids. Controlling and quantifying of this crystallinity helps in engineering bioglasses for specific period in application. In this work, synthesis of 45S5 bioglass through solgel method is presented. Here, temperature and time dependent crystallisation kinetics were estimated using a quality parameter derived from X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns of bioglass during stabilisation treatment. Quality parameter derived from XRD patterns is termed as IPB which is the ratio of integral area of peaks to the integral area of background. It is proposed that IPB can be used as quality parameter to assess crystallinity and to study crystallisation kinetics in bioglasses.

Integrating impact evaluation in the design and implementation of monitoring marine protected areas

PubMed Central

Ahmadia, Gabby N.; Glew, Louise; Provost, Mikaela; Gill, David; Hidayat, Nur Ismu; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Purwanto; Fox, Helen E.

2015-01-01

Quasi-experimental impact evaluation approaches, which enable scholars to disentangle effects of conservation interventions from broader changes in the environment, are gaining momentum in the conservation sector. However, rigorous impact evaluation using statistical matching techniques to estimate the counterfactual have yet to be applied to marine protected areas (MPAs). While there are numerous studies investigating ‘impacts’ of MPAs that have generated considerable insights, results are variable. This variation has been linked to the biophysical and social context in which they are established, as well as attributes of management and governance. To inform decisions about MPA placement, design and implementation, we need to expand our understanding of conditions under which MPAs are likely to lead to positive outcomes by embracing advances in impact evaluation methodologies. Here, we describe the integration of impact evaluation within an MPA network monitoring programme in the Bird's Head Seascape, Indonesia. Specifically we (i) highlight the challenges of implementation ‘on the ground’ and in marine ecosystems and (ii) describe the transformation of an existing monitoring programme into a design appropriate for impact evaluation. This study offers one potential model for mainstreaming impact evaluation in the conservation sector. PMID:26460128

Geographic Hotspots of Critical National Infrastructure.

PubMed

Thacker, Scott; Barr, Stuart; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W; Alderson, David

2017-12-01

Failure of critical national infrastructures can result in major disruptions to society and the economy. Understanding the criticality of individual assets and the geographic areas in which they are located is essential for targeting investments to reduce risks and enhance system resilience. Within this study we provide new insights into the criticality of real-life critical infrastructure networks by integrating high-resolution data on infrastructure location, connectivity, interdependence, and usage. We propose a metric of infrastructure criticality in terms of the number of users who may be directly or indirectly disrupted by the failure of physically interdependent infrastructures. Kernel density estimation is used to integrate spatially discrete criticality values associated with individual infrastructure assets, producing a continuous surface from which statistically significant infrastructure criticality hotspots are identified. We develop a comprehensive and unique national-scale demonstration for England and Wales that utilizes previously unavailable data from the energy, transport, water, waste, and digital communications sectors. The testing of 200,000 failure scenarios identifies that hotspots are typically located around the periphery of urban areas where there are large facilities upon which many users depend or where several critical infrastructures are concentrated in one location. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Tagging age-1 Lost River and shortnose suckers with passive integrated transponders, Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon–Summary of 2009–11 effort

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burdick, Summer M.

2012-01-01

A passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging study was initiated in 2009 for age-1 endangered Lost River and shortnose suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, for the purpose of examining causes of mortality, validating estimated age to maturity, and examining movement patterns. This study, which was done opportunistically in 2009 and 2010, received funding in 2011 for a directed tagging effort. Tags were redetected using an existing infrastructure of remote PIT tag readers and tag scanning surveys at American white pelican and double-crested cormorant breeding and loafing areas. Individual fish histories are used to describe the distance, direction, and timing of age-1 sucker movement. Sucker PIT tag detections in the Sprague and Williamson rivers in mid-summer and in autumn indicate age-1 suckers use these tributaries outside of the known spring spawning season. PIT tags detected in bird habitats indicate predation by birds may have been a cause of mortality in 2009. Field conditions prevented scanning bird breeding and loafing areas in Upper Klamath Wildlife National Refuge for tags in 2011, however, limiting our ability to make inferences about bird predation in those years.

Tall tower landscape scale N2O flux measurements in a Danish agricultural and urban, coastal area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrom, Andreas; Lequy, Émeline; Loubet, Benjamin; Pilegaard, Kim; Ambus, Per

2015-04-01

Both technical and natural processes emit the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) into the atmosphere. The abundant use of nitrogen (N) as fertiliser increases the concentration of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the atmosphere, the hydrosphere and in the biosphere, i.e. in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Surplus Nr is distributed across linkages to other spheres until most of it is emitted to the atmosphere as NO, N2O or N2. A complete estimate of the effects from human activities on N2O emissions must therefore include all emissions, the direct emissions and the indirect emissions that happen in interlinked spheres. For this it is necessary to assess the fluxes at least at the landscape scale. The episodic nature and the large spatial variability make it difficult to estimate the direct and indirect emissions in a landscape. Modelling requires not only to include the highly variable microbial processes in the ecosystems that produce N2O but as well the accurate simulation of lateral Nr fluxes and their effects on N2O fluxes in places remote from the primary Nr sources. In this context tall tower N2O flux measurements are particularly useful as they integrate over larger areas and can be run, continuously without disturbing the fluxes. On the other hand these measurements can be difficult to interpret due to difficulties to measure the small concentration fluctuations in the atmosphere at small flux rates and to accurately attribute the measured flux at the tower to the area that generates the flux, i.e. the source area. The Technical University of Denmark (DTU) has established eddy covariance N2O flux measurements on a 125 m tall tower at its Risø Campus as part of the EU research infrastructure project the 'Integrated non-CO2 Greenhouse gas Observing System' (InGOS). The eddy covariance system consisted of a N2O/CO quantum cascade laser, Los Gatos, Mountain View, CA, USA and a 3D sonic anemometer (USA-1), Metek, Elmshorn, Germany. The Risø peninsula lies at the eastern coastline of the Roskilde fjord on the Danish island Zealand. The tower is surrounded by the fjord, by agricultural area, forests and, in the South by the urban area of the City of Roskilde. The City of Roskilde operates a waste incinerator and a waste water treatment plant, which drains treated waste water into the fjord. The level of the measured flux values was generally relatively low. Based on the clear definition of the lag time between N2O concentrations and the vertical wind speed, fluxes were measureable over larger periods. The fluxes showed clear directional relationships indicating their large spatial and temporal variability in the landscape. Footprint calculations were performed to attribute source areas to the measured fluxes ...(Kormann and Meixner, 2001; Neftel et al., 2008). The footprint of the flux measurement included areas between 200 m and several kilometres distance from the tower. A preliminary approach was developed to generate monthly maps of N2O fluxes around the tower. Here we present the results from the first seven months of flux measurements. Based on these results we discuss the potential and the limitations of tall tower eddy covariance measurements to estimate maps of N2O fluxes and the integral value of the landscape N2O flux. Acknowledgements: This work was funded by the EU-FP7 InGOS project. We thank Ebba Dellwik (Technical University of Denmark) for providing sonic anemometer data. References: Kormann, R. and Meixner, F.X., 2001. An Analytical Footprint Model For Non-Neutral Stratification. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 99(2): 207-224. Neftel, A., Spirig, C. and Ammann, C., 2008. Application and test of a simple tool for operational footprint evaluations. Environmental Pollution, 152(3): 644-652.

Photo-z-SQL: Photometric redshift estimation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Róbert; Dobos, László; Budavári, Tamás; Szalay, Alexander S.; Csabai, István

2017-04-01

Photo-z-SQL is a flexible template-based photometric redshift estimation framework that can be seamlessly integrated into a SQL database (or DB) server and executed on demand in SQL. The DB integration eliminates the need to move large photometric datasets outside a database for redshift estimation, and uses the computational capabilities of DB hardware. Photo-z-SQL performs both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation and handles inputs of variable photometric filter sets and corresponding broad-band magnitudes.

Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of a Novel Integrated Bite Case Management Program for the Control of Human Rabies, Haiti 2014–2015

PubMed Central

Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Meltzer, Martin I.; Tran, Cuc H.; Atkins, Charisma Y.; Etheart, Melissa D.; Millien, Max F.; Adrien, Paul; Wallace, Ryan M.

2017-01-01

Haiti has the highest burden of rabies in the Western hemisphere, with 130 estimated annual deaths. We present the cost-effectiveness evaluation of an integrated bite case management program combining community bite investigations and passive animal rabies surveillance, using a governmental perspective. The Haiti Animal Rabies Surveillance Program (HARSP) was first implemented in three communes of the West Department, Haiti. Our evaluation encompassed all individuals exposed to rabies in the study area (N = 2,289) in 2014–2015. Costs (2014 U.S. dollars) included diagnostic laboratory development, training of surveillance officers, operational costs, and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). We used estimated deaths averted and years of life gained (YLG) from prevented rabies as health outcomes. HARSP had higher overall costs (range: $39,568–$80,290) than the no-bite-case-management (NBCM) scenario ($15,988–$26,976), partly from an increased number of bite victims receiving PEP. But HARSP had better health outcomes than NBCM, with estimated 11 additional annual averted deaths in 2014 and nine in 2015, and 654 additional YLG in 2014 and 535 in 2015. Overall, HARSP was more cost-effective (US$ per death averted) than NBCM (2014, HARSP: $2,891–$4,735, NBCM: $5,980–$8,453; 2015, HARSP: $3,534–$7,171, NBCM: $7,298–$12,284). HARSP offers an effective human rabies prevention solution for countries transitioning from reactive to preventive strategies, such as comprehensive dog vaccination. PMID:28719253

Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of a Novel Integrated Bite Case Management Program for the Control of Human Rabies, Haiti 2014-2015.

PubMed

Undurraga, Eduardo A; Meltzer, Martin I; Tran, Cuc H; Atkins, Charisma Y; Etheart, Melissa D; Millien, Max F; Adrien, Paul; Wallace, Ryan M

2017-06-01

AbstractHaiti has the highest burden of rabies in the Western hemisphere, with 130 estimated annual deaths. We present the cost-effectiveness evaluation of an integrated bite case management program combining community bite investigations and passive animal rabies surveillance, using a governmental perspective. The Haiti Animal Rabies Surveillance Program (HARSP) was first implemented in three communes of the West Department, Haiti. Our evaluation encompassed all individuals exposed to rabies in the study area ( N = 2,289) in 2014-2015. Costs (2014 U.S. dollars) included diagnostic laboratory development, training of surveillance officers, operational costs, and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). We used estimated deaths averted and years of life gained (YLG) from prevented rabies as health outcomes. HARSP had higher overall costs (range: $39,568-$80,290) than the no-bite-case-management (NBCM) scenario ($15,988-$26,976), partly from an increased number of bite victims receiving PEP. But HARSP had better health outcomes than NBCM, with estimated 11 additional annual averted deaths in 2014 and nine in 2015, and 654 additional YLG in 2014 and 535 in 2015. Overall, HARSP was more cost-effective (US$ per death averted) than NBCM (2014, HARSP: $2,891-$4,735, NBCM: $5,980-$8,453; 2015, HARSP: $3,534-$7,171, NBCM: $7,298-$12,284). HARSP offers an effective human rabies prevention solution for countries transitioning from reactive to preventive strategies, such as comprehensive dog vaccination.

Geometric contribution leading to anomalous estimation of two-dimensional electron gas density in GaN based heterostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Bhanu B.; Jha, Jaya; Takhar, Kuldeep; Ganguly, Swaroop; Saha, Dipankar

2018-05-01

We have observed that the estimation of two-dimensional electron gas density is dependent on the device geometry. The geometric contribution leads to the anomalous estimation of the GaN based heterostructure properties. The observed discrepancy is found to originate from the anomalous area dependent capacitance of GaN based Schottky diodes, which is an integral part of the high electron mobility transistors. The areal capacitance density is found to increase for smaller radii Schottky diodes, contrary to a constant as expected intuitively. The capacitance is found to follow a second order polynomial on the radius of all the bias voltages and frequencies considered here. In addition to the quadratic dependency corresponding to the areal component, the linear dependency indicates a peripheral component. It is further observed that the peripheral to areal contribution is inversely proportional to the radius confirming the periphery as the location of the additional capacitance. The peripheral component is found to be frequency dependent and tends to saturate to a lower value for measurements at a high frequency. In addition, the peripheral component is found to vanish when the surface is passivated by a combination of N2 and O2 plasma treatments. The cumulative surface state density per unit length of the perimeter of the Schottky diodes as obtained by the integrated response over the distance between the ohmic and Schottky contacts is found to be 2.75 × 1010 cm-1.

Combination of Insar and GPS to Measure Ground Motions and Atmospheric Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerbini, S.; Prati, C.; Errico, M.; Ferri, S.; Novali, F.; Scirpoli, S.; Tiberi, L.

2010-12-01

The combination of different techniques such as InSAR and GPS is characterized by the added value of taking advantage of their complementary strengths and of minimizing their respective weaknesses, thus allowing for the full exploitation of the complementary aspects by overcoming the limitations inherent in the use of each technique alone. Another important aspect of the GPS/InSAR integration regards the fact that today’s application of interferometric SAR techniques is limited by the knowledge of the wet tropospheric path delay in microwave observations. GPS-based estimates of tropospheric delays may help in obtaining better corrections which will enhance the coherence and will allow the application of InSAR in a wider range of applications. The area selected for the InSAR/GPS comparison/integration is in northeastern Italy and includes the town of Bologna, and two nearby sites Medicina (agricultural area) and Loiano (a small city on the Apennines) where a small network of permanent GPS stations is operated by the University of Bologna. The InSAR data used are the COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) images made available by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) in the framework of the research contract AO-1140. The Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique will be applied to a number of repeated CSK strip map SAR images acquired over a 40x40 square km area encompassing the towns mentioned above. Ultimately this work will contribute demonstrating the CSK capabilities to operate in a repeated interferometric survey mode for measuring ground deformation with millimeter accuracy in different environments. A PS is a target whose radar signature is stable with time. Such targets can be identified by means of multiple SAR observations and they can be exploited for jointly estimating their relative motion and the atmospheric artifacts on a grid that can be quite dense in space but not in time (depending on the SAR revisiting time interval). On the contrary the GPS can provide very frequent time measurements in correspondence of a few measuring points. Elevation, ground deformation and atmospheric artifacts estimated in correspondence of the identified PS will be compared with independent measurements carried out at the same acquisition time by permanent GPS stations in the area of Bologna, Medicina and Loiano. The comparison of these independent measurements is itself a cross-validation of the obtained results. The value of cross-validation of different and compatible techniques is to provide reliable vertical crustal motion determinations in space and time. Urban areas such as that of Bologna will be examined to evaluate CSK capabilities to measure extended subsidence (or up-swelling) and single building deformation.

Estimating the spatial distribution of soil moisture based on Bayesian maximum entropy method with auxiliary data from remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Shengguo; Zhu, Zhongli; Liu, Shaomin; Jin, Rui; Yang, Guangchao; Tan, Lei

2014-10-01

Soil moisture (SM) plays a fundamental role in the land-atmosphere exchange process. Spatial estimation based on multi in situ (network) data is a critical way to understand the spatial structure and variation of land surface soil moisture. Theoretically, integrating densely sampled auxiliary data spatially correlated with soil moisture into the procedure of spatial estimation can improve its accuracy. In this study, we present a novel approach to estimate the spatial pattern of soil moisture by using the BME method based on wireless sensor network data and auxiliary information from ASTER (Terra) land surface temperature measurements. For comparison, three traditional geostatistic methods were also applied: ordinary kriging (OK), which used the wireless sensor network data only, regression kriging (RK) and ordinary co-kriging (Co-OK) which both integrated the ASTER land surface temperature as a covariate. In Co-OK, LST was linearly contained in the estimator, in RK, estimator is expressed as the sum of the regression estimate and the kriged estimate of the spatially correlated residual, but in BME, the ASTER land surface temperature was first retrieved as soil moisture based on the linear regression, then, the t-distributed prediction interval (PI) of soil moisture was estimated and used as soft data in probability form. The results indicate that all three methods provide reasonable estimations. Co-OK, RK and BME can provide a more accurate spatial estimation by integrating the auxiliary information Compared to OK. RK and BME shows more obvious improvement compared to Co-OK, and even BME can perform slightly better than RK. The inherent issue of spatial estimation (overestimation in the range of low values and underestimation in the range of high values) can also be further improved in both RK and BME. We can conclude that integrating auxiliary data into spatial estimation can indeed improve the accuracy, BME and RK take better advantage of the auxiliary information compared to Co-OK, and BME outperforms RK by integrating the auxiliary data in a probability form.

A Simultaneous Density-Integral System for Estimating Stem Profile and Biomass: Slash Pine and Willow Oak

Treesearch

Bernard R. Parresol; Charles E. Thomas

1996-01-01

In the wood utilization industry, both stem profile and biomass are important quantities. The two have traditionally been estimated separately. The introduction of a density-integral method allows for coincident estimation of stem profile and biomass, based on the calculus of mass theory, and provides an alternative to weight-ratio methodology. In the initial...

Study on UKF based federal integrated navigation for high dynamic aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Gang; Shao, Wei; Chen, Kai; Yan, Jie

2011-08-01

High dynamic aircraft is a very attractive new generation vehicles, in which provides near space aviation with large flight envelope both speed and altitude, for example the hypersonic vehicles. The complex flight environments for high dynamic vehicles require high accuracy and stability navigation scheme. Since the conventional Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SINS) and Global Position System (GPS) federal integrated scheme based on EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) is invalidation in GPS single blackout situation because of high speed flight, a new high precision and stability integrated navigation approach is presented in this paper, in which the SINS, GPS and Celestial Navigation System (CNS) is combined as a federal information fusion configuration based on nonlinear Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) algorithm. Firstly, the new integrated system state error is modeled. According to this error model, the SINS system is used as the navigation solution mathematic platform. The SINS combine with GPS constitute one error estimation filter subsystem based on UKF to obtain local optimal estimation, and the SINS combine with CNS constitute another error estimation subsystem. A non-reset federated configuration filter based on partial information is proposed to fuse two local optimal estimations to get global optimal error estimation, and the global optimal estimation is used to correct the SINS navigation solution. The χ 2 fault detection method is used to detect the subsystem fault, and the fault subsystem is isolation through fault interval to protect system away from the divergence. The integrated system takes advantages of SINS, GPS and CNS to an immense improvement for high accuracy and reliably high dynamic navigation application. Simulation result shows that federated fusion of using GPS and CNS to revise SINS solution is reasonable and availably with good estimation performance, which are satisfied with the demands of high dynamic flight navigation. The UKF is superior than EKF based integrated scheme, in which has smaller estimation error and quickly convergence rate.

Validation of a spatial model used to locate fish spawning reef construction sites in the St. Clair–Detroit River system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fischer, Jason L.; Bennion, David; Roseman, Edward F.; Manny, Bruce A.

2015-01-01

Lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) populations have suffered precipitous declines in the St. Clair–Detroit River system, following the removal of gravel spawning substrates and overfishing in the late 1800s to mid-1900s. To assist the remediation of lake sturgeon spawning habitat, three hydrodynamic models were integrated into a spatial model to identify areas in two large rivers, where water velocities were appropriate for the restoration of lake sturgeon spawning habitat. Here we use water velocity data collected with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) to assess the ability of the spatial model and its sub-models to correctly identify areas where water velocities were deemed suitable for restoration of fish spawning habitat. ArcMap 10.1 was used to create raster grids of water velocity data from model estimates and ADCP measurements which were compared to determine the percentage of cells similarly classified as unsuitable, suitable, or ideal for fish spawning habitat remediation. The spatial model categorized 65% of the raster cells the same as depth-averaged water velocity measurements from the ADCP and 72% of the raster cells the same as surface water velocity measurements from the ADCP. Sub-models focused on depth-averaged velocities categorized the greatest percentage of cells similar to ADCP measurements where 74% and 76% of cells were the same as depth-averaged water velocity measurements. Our results indicate that integrating depth-averaged and surface water velocity hydrodynamic models may have biased the spatial model and overestimated suitable spawning habitat. A model solely integrating depth-averaged velocity models could improve identification of areas suitable for restoration of fish spawning habitat.

Integrated water resources management : A case study in the Hehei river basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Siqi; Deng, Xiangzheng

2017-04-01

The lack of water resources experienced in different parts of the world has now been recognized and analyzed by different international organizations such as WHO, the World Bank, etc. Add to this the growing urbanization and the fast socio-economic development, the water supply of many urban areas is already or will be severely threatened. Recently published documents from the UN Environmental Program confirms that severe water shortage affects 400 million people today and will affect 4 billion people by 2050. Water nowadays is getting scarce, and access to clean drinking water and water for agricultural usage is unequally distributed. The biggest opportunity and challenge for future water management is how to achieve water sustainability to reduce water consumption. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources in order to maximize economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems. We take the Heibe river basin where agriculture water there accounted for 90% of total water consumption as an example to study the impacts of IWRM on regional water resources. We calculated the elasticity of substitution values between labor and land, water by each irrigation areas to find the variable elastic value among irrigation areas, and the water-use efficiency based on NPP estimation with the C-fix model and WUE estimation with NPP and ET. The empirical analysis indicated that the moderate scale of farmland is 0.27-0.53hm2 under the condition of technical efficiency of irrigation water and production. Agricultural water use accounted for 94% of the social and economic water consumption in 2012, but water efficiency and water productivity were both at a low stage. In conclusion, land use forms at present in Heihe river basin have a detrimental impact on the availability of ecological water use. promoting water management from water demand management to water consumption management is an important direction for scientific and sustainable development of the Heihe river basin, it is also an endeavor to enhance the policy relevance of land use governance and industrial transformation. The comprehensive exploration on the water-ecosystem-economy is critical in integrated water resource management.

Estimating leaf functional traits by inversion of PROSPECT: Assessing leaf dry matter content and specific leaf area in mixed mountainous forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Abebe Mohammed; Darvishzadeh, Roshanak; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Duren, Iris van; Heiden, Uta; Heurich, Marco

2016-03-01

Assessments of ecosystem functioning rely heavily on quantification of vegetation properties. The search is on for methods that produce reliable and accurate baseline information on plant functional traits. In this study, the inversion of the PROSPECT radiative transfer model was used to estimate two functional leaf traits: leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and specific leaf area (SLA). Inversion of PROSPECT usually aims at quantifying its direct input parameters. This is the first time the technique has been used to indirectly model LDMC and SLA. Biophysical parameters of 137 leaf samples were measured in July 2013 in the Bavarian Forest National Park, Germany. Spectra of the leaf samples were measured using an ASD FieldSpec3 equipped with an integrating sphere. PROSPECT was inverted using a look-up table (LUT) approach. The LUTs were generated with and without using prior information. The effect of incorporating prior information on the retrieval accuracy was studied before and after stratifying the samples into broadleaf and conifer categories. The estimated values were evaluated using R2 and normalized root mean square error (nRMSE). Among the retrieved variables the lowest nRMSE (0.0899) was observed for LDMC. For both traits higher R2 values (0.83 for LDMC and 0.89 for SLA) were discovered in the pooled samples. The use of prior information improved accuracy of the retrieved traits. The strong correlation between the estimated traits and the NIR/SWIR region of the electromagnetic spectrum suggests that these leaf traits could be assessed at canopy level by using remotely sensed data.

National Estimates of Gross Employment and Job Flows from the Quarterly Workforce Indicators with Demographic and Industry Detail

PubMed Central

Abowd, John M.; Vilhuber, Lars

2010-01-01

The Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) are local labor market data produced and released every quarter by the United States Census Bureau. Unlike any other local labor market series produced in the U.S. or the rest of the world, QWI measure employment flows for workers (accession and separations), jobs (creations and destructions) and earnings for demographic subgroups (age and gender), economic industry (NAICS industry groups), detailed geography (block (experimental), county, Core-Based Statistical Area, and Workforce Investment Area), and ownership (private, all) with fully interacted publication tables. The current QWI data cover 47 states, about 98% of the private workforce in those states, and about 92% of all private employment in the entire economy. State participation is sufficiently extensive to permit us to present the first national estimates constructed from these data. We focus on worker, job, and excess (churning) reallocation rates, rather than on levels of the basic variables. This permits comparison to existing series from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Business Employment Dynamics Series from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The national estimates from the QWI are an important enhancement to existing series because they include demographic and industry detail for both worker and job flow data compiled from underlying micro-data that have been integrated at the job and establishment levels by the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Program at the Census Bureau. The estimates presented herein were compiled exclusively from public-use data series and are available for download. PMID:21516213

Modeling nonlinear responses of DOC transport in boreal catchments in Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasurinen, Ville; Alfredsen, Knut; Ojala, Anne; Pumpanen, Jukka; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Futter, Martyn N.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Berninger, Frank

2016-07-01

Stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations display high spatial and temporal variation in boreal catchments. Understanding and predicting these patterns is a challenge with great implications for water quality projections and carbon balance estimates. Although several biogeochemical models have been used to estimate stream water DOC dynamics, model biases common during both rain and snow melt-driven events. The parsimonious DOC-model, K-DOC, with 10 calibrated parameters, uses a nonlinear discharge and catchment water storage relationship including soil temperature dependencies of DOC release and consumption. K-DOC was used to estimate the stream water DOC concentrations over 5 years for eighteen nested boreal catchments having total area of 68 km2 (varying from 0.04 to 67.9 km2). The model successfully simulated DOC concentrations during base flow conditions, as well as, hydrological events in catchments dominated by organic and mineral soils reaching NSEs from 0.46 to 0.76. Our semimechanistic model was parsimonious enough to have all parameters estimated using statistical methods. We did not find any clear differences between forest and mire-dominated catchments that could be explained by soil type or tree species composition. However, parameters controlling slow release and consumption of DOC from soil water behaved differently for small headwater catchments (less than 2 km2) than for those that integrate larger areas of different ecosystem types (10-68 km2). Our results emphasize that it is important to account for nonlinear dependencies of both, soil temperature, and catchment water storage, when simulating DOC dynamics of boreal catchments.

Merging bottom-up and top-down precipitation products using a stochastic error model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggioni, Viviana; Massari, Christian; Brocca, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca

2017-04-01

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation is of great importance for water resources management, agricultural planning, and forecasting and monitoring of natural hazards such as flash floods and landslides. In situ observations are limited around the Earth, especially in remote areas (e.g., complex terrain, dense vegetation), but currently available satellite precipitation products are able to provide global precipitation estimates with an accuracy that depends upon many factors (e.g., type of storms, temporal sampling, season etc…). Recently, Brocca et al. (2014) have proposed an alternative approach (i.e., SM2RAIN) that allows to estimate rainfall from space by using satellite soil moisture observations. In contrast with classical satellite precipitation products which sense the cloud properties to retrieve the instantaneous precipitation, this new bottom-up approach makes use of two consecutive soil moisture measurements for obtaining an estimate of the fallen precipitation within the interval between two satellite passes. As a result, the nature of the measurement is different and complementary to the one of classical precipitation products and could provide a different valid perspective to improve current satellite rainfall estimates via appropriate integration between the products (i.e., SM2RAIN plus a classical satellite rainfall product). However, whether SM2RAIN is able or not to improve the performance of any state-of-the-art satellite rainfall product is much dependent upon an adequate quantification and characterization of the relative errors of the products. In this study, the stochastic rainfall error model SREM2D (Hossain et al. 2006) is used for characterizing the retrieval error of both SM2RAIN and a state-of-the-art satellite precipitation product (i.e., 3B42RT). The error characterization serves for an optimal integration between SM2RAIN and 3B42RT for enhancing the capability of the resulting integrated product (i.e. SM2RAIN+3B42RT) in operational hydrology. The study, conducted in Italy for a 5-yr period (2010-2014) using a dense network of raingauges (about 3000) as a benchmark, demonstrates that the integration is able to enhance the correlation and the root mean squared error of SM2RAIN+3B42RT with respect to the parent products. This suggests a potential benefit of merging SM2RAIN derived rainfall with state-of-the-art satellite precipitation estimates for creating a product characterized by higher accuracy and better performance when used in the contest of operational hydrology. REFERENCES 1. Brocca, L.; Ciabatta, L.; Massari, C.; Moramarco, T.; Hahn, S.; Hasenauer, S.; Kidd, R.; Dorigo, W.; Wagner, W.; Levizzani, V. Soil as a natural rain gauge: Estimating global rainfall from satellite soil moisture data. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2014, 119, 5128-5141. 2. Hossain, F.; Anagnostou, E. N. A two-dimensional satellite rainfall error model. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 2006, 44, 1511-1522.

Integrating LIDAR and forest inventories to fill the trees outside forests data gap.

PubMed

Johnson, Kristofer D; Birdsey, Richard; Cole, Jason; Swatantran, Anu; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath; Dubayah, Ralph; Lister, Andrew

2015-10-01

Forest inventories are commonly used to estimate total tree biomass of forest land even though they are not traditionally designed to measure biomass of trees outside forests (TOF). The consequence may be an inaccurate representation of all of the aboveground biomass, which propagates error to the outputs of spatial and process models that rely on the inventory data. An ideal approach to fill this data gap would be to integrate TOF measurements within a traditional forest inventory for a parsimonious estimate of total tree biomass. In this study, Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data were used to predict biomass of TOF in all "nonforest" Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots in the state of Maryland. To validate the LIDAR-based biomass predictions, a field crew was sent to measure TOF on nonforest plots in three Maryland counties, revealing close agreement at both the plot and county scales between the two estimates. Total tree biomass in Maryland increased by 25.5 Tg, or 15.6%, when biomass of TOF were included. In two counties (Carroll and Howard), there was a 47% increase. In contrast, counties located further away from the interstate highway corridor showed only a modest increase in biomass when TOF were added because nonforest conditions were less common in those areas. The advantage of this approach for estimating biomass of TOF is that it is compatible with, and explicitly separates TOF biomass from, forest biomass already measured by FIA crews. By predicting biomass of TOF at actual FIA plots, this approach is directly compatible with traditionally reported FIA forest biomass, providing a framework for other states to follow, and should improve carbon reporting and modeling activities in Maryland.

Projected economic losses due to vector and vector-borne parasitic diseases in livestock of India and its significance in implementing the concept of integrated practices for vector management

PubMed Central

Narladkar, B. W.

2018-01-01

Broadly, species of arthropods infesting livestock are grouped into flies (biting and non-biting), fleas, lice (biting and sucking), ticks (soft and hard), and mites (burrowing, non-burrowing, and follicular). Among which, biting and non-biting flies and ticks are the potent vectors for many bacterial, viral, rickettsial, and protozoan diseases. Vectors of livestock are having economic significance on three points (1) direct losses from their bite and annoyance, worries, and psychological disturbances produced during the act of biting and feeding, (2) diseases they transmit, and (3) expenditure incurred for their control. Flies such as Culicoides spp. and Musca spp. and various species of hard ticks play important role in disease transmission in addition to their direct effects. For control of vectors, recent concept of integrated pest management (IPM) provides the best solution and also addresses the problems related to acaricide resistance and environmental protection from hazardous chemicals. However, to successfully implement the concept of IPM, for each vector species, estimation of two monitory benchmarks, i.e., economic injury level (EIL) and economic threshold level (ETL) is essential prerequisite. For many vector species and under several circumstances, estimation of EIL and ETL appears to be difficult. Under such scenario, although may not be exact, an approximate estimate can be accrued by taking into account several criteria such as percent prevalence of vectors in a geographical area, percent losses produced, total livestock population, and current prices of livestock products such as milk, meat, and wool. Method for approximate estimation is first time described and elaborated in the present review article. PMID:29657396

An empirical Bayes method for updating inferences in analysis of quantitative trait loci using information from related genome scans.

PubMed

Zhang, Kui; Wiener, Howard; Beasley, Mark; George, Varghese; Amos, Christopher I; Allison, David B

2006-08-01

Individual genome scans for quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping often suffer from low statistical power and imprecise estimates of QTL location and effect. This lack of precision yields large confidence intervals for QTL location, which are problematic for subsequent fine mapping and positional cloning. In prioritizing areas for follow-up after an initial genome scan and in evaluating the credibility of apparent linkage signals, investigators typically examine the results of other genome scans of the same phenotype and informally update their beliefs about which linkage signals in their scan most merit confidence and follow-up via a subjective-intuitive integration approach. A method that acknowledges the wisdom of this general paradigm but formally borrows information from other scans to increase confidence in objectivity would be a benefit. We developed an empirical Bayes analytic method to integrate information from multiple genome scans. The linkage statistic obtained from a single genome scan study is updated by incorporating statistics from other genome scans as prior information. This technique does not require that all studies have an identical marker map or a common estimated QTL effect. The updated linkage statistic can then be used for the estimation of QTL location and effect. We evaluate the performance of our method by using extensive simulations based on actual marker spacing and allele frequencies from available data. Results indicate that the empirical Bayes method can account for between-study heterogeneity, estimate the QTL location and effect more precisely, and provide narrower confidence intervals than results from any single individual study. We also compared the empirical Bayes method with a method originally developed for meta-analysis (a closely related but distinct purpose). In the face of marked heterogeneity among studies, the empirical Bayes method outperforms the comparator.