Improving arrival time identification in transient elastography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Jens; McLaughlin, Joyce; Renzi, Daniel

2012-04-01

In this paper, we improve the first step in the arrival time algorithm used for shear wave speed recovery in transient elastography. In transient elastography, a shear wave is initiated at the boundary and the interior displacement of the propagating shear wave is imaged with an ultrasound ultra-fast imaging system. The first step in the arrival time algorithm finds the arrival times of the shear wave by cross correlating displacement time traces (the time history of the displacement at a single point) with a reference time trace located near the shear wave source. The second step finds the shear wave speed from the arrival times. In performing the first step, we observe that the wave pulse decorrelates as it travels through the medium, which leads to inaccurate estimates of the arrival times and ultimately to blurring and artifacts in the shear wave speed image. In particular, wave ‘spreading’ accounts for much of this decorrelation. Here we remove most of the decorrelation by allowing the reference wave pulse to spread during the cross correlation. This dramatically improves the images obtained from arrival time identification. We illustrate the improvement of this method on phantom and in vivo data obtained from the laboratory of Mathias Fink at ESPCI, Paris.

Hardware design and implementation of fast DOA estimation method based on multicore DSP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Rui; Zhao, Yingxiao; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

2016-10-01

In this paper, we present a high-speed real-time signal processing hardware platform based on multicore digital signal processor (DSP). The real-time signal processing platform shows several excellent characteristics including high performance computing, low power consumption, large-capacity data storage and high speed data transmission, which make it able to meet the constraint of real-time direction of arrival (DOA) estimation. To reduce the high computational complexity of DOA estimation algorithm, a novel real-valued MUSIC estimator is used. The algorithm is decomposed into several independent steps and the time consumption of each step is counted. Based on the statistics of the time consumption, we present a new parallel processing strategy to distribute the task of DOA estimation to different cores of the real-time signal processing hardware platform. Experimental results demonstrate that the high processing capability of the signal processing platform meets the constraint of real-time direction of arrival (DOA) estimation.

IEEE 802.15.4 ZigBee-Based Time-of-Arrival Estimation for Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Cheon, Jeonghyeon; Hwang, Hyunsu; Kim, Dongsun; Jung, Yunho

2016-02-05

Precise time-of-arrival (TOA) estimation is one of the most important techniques in RF-based positioning systems that use wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Because the accuracy of TOA estimation is proportional to the RF signal bandwidth, using broad bandwidth is the most fundamental approach for achieving higher accuracy. Hence, ultra-wide-band (UWB) systems with a bandwidth of 500 MHz are commonly used. However, wireless systems with broad bandwidth suffer from the disadvantages of high complexity and high power consumption. Therefore, it is difficult to employ such systems in various WSN applications. In this paper, we present a precise time-of-arrival (TOA) estimation algorithm using an IEEE 802.15.4 ZigBee system with a narrow bandwidth of 2 MHz. In order to overcome the lack of bandwidth, the proposed algorithm estimates the fractional TOA within the sampling interval. Simulation results show that the proposed TOA estimation algorithm provides an accuracy of 0.5 m at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 8 dB and achieves an SNR gain of 5 dB as compared with the existing algorithm. In addition, experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm provides accurate TOA estimation in a real indoor environment.

Estimation of flow properties using surface deformation and head data: A trajectory-based approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D.W.

2004-07-12

A trajectory-based algorithm provides an efficient and robust means to infer flow properties from surface deformation and head data. The algorithm is based upon the concept of an ''arrival time'' of a drawdown front, which is defined as the time corresponding to the maximum slope of the drawdown curve. The technique involves three steps: the inference of head changes as a function of position and time, the use of the estimated head changes to define arrival times, and the inversion of the arrival times for flow properties. Trajectories, computed from the output of a numerical simulator, are used to relatemore » the drawdown arrival times to flow properties. The inversion algorithm is iterative, requiring one reservoir simulation for each iteration. The method is applied to data from a set of 14 tiltmeters, located at the Raymond Quarry field site in California. Using the technique, I am able to image a high-conductivity channel which extends to the south of the pumping well. The presence of th is permeable pathway is supported by an analysis of earlier cross-well transient pressure test data.« less

Babies in traffic: infant vocalizations and listener sex modulate auditory motion perception.

PubMed

Neuhoff, John G; Hamilton, Grace R; Gittleson, Amanda L; Mejia, Adolfo

2014-04-01

Infant vocalizations and "looming sounds" are classes of environmental stimuli that are critically important to survival but can have dramatically different emotional valences. Here, we simultaneously presented listeners with a stationary infant vocalization and a 3D virtual looming tone for which listeners made auditory time-to-arrival judgments. Negatively valenced infant cries produced more cautious (anticipatory) estimates of auditory arrival time of the tone over a no-vocalization control. Positively valenced laughs had the opposite effect, and across all conditions, men showed smaller anticipatory biases than women. In Experiment 2, vocalization-matched vocoded noise stimuli did not influence concurrent auditory time-to-arrival estimates compared with a control condition. In Experiment 3, listeners estimated the egocentric distance of a looming tone that stopped before arriving. For distant stopping points, women estimated the stopping point as closer when the tone was presented with an infant cry than when it was presented with a laugh. For near stopping points, women showed no differential effect of vocalization type. Men did not show differential effects of vocalization type at either distance. Our results support the idea that both the sex of the listener and the emotional valence of infant vocalizations can influence auditory motion perception and can modulate motor responses to other behaviorally relevant environmental sounds. We also find support for previous work that shows sex differences in emotion processing are diminished under conditions of higher stress.

An ESS treatment of the pattern of female arrival at the mating site in the yellow dung fly scathophaga stercoraria (L.)

PubMed

Reuter; Ward; Blanckenhorn

1998-12-07

In most previous work on the yellow dung fly Scathophaga stercoraria (L.), as on other species, adaptive explanations have been sought for male behaviour whereas female behaviour has not been examined in similar detail. Here, the arrival of females at the mating site, fresh cattle droppings, is investigated. While almost all males are present shortly after pat deposition females arrive at a low, decreasing rate over an interval of about 5 hours. We propose that the distribution of female arrival times represents a mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS), formed by different trade-offs between costs and benefits of early and late arrival. Early arrival could be favoured by advantages due to better conditions for oviposition, faster egg development of reduced larval competition. Late arrival could be favoured by negative effects on females of male-male competition being weaker later after deposition. Computer simulations with distributions of arrival times deviating from the natural one were performed to "measure" the costs for females arriving at different times. These costs were compared with estimated benefits corresponding to the females' arrival times. This procedure revealed that females coming to the pat later in a population of females arriving shortly after deposition would be favoured. In a population arriving according to a uniform distribution, early females would have fitness advantages. Thus, evolution should lead to an intermediate distribution of arrival times, as in nature, i.e. female arrival behaviour is probably adaptive. The simulations also revealed that the intensity of sexual selection though male-male competition is highest with the natural pattern of female arrival. Therefore, natural selection generating this pattern amplifies the intensity of male-male interaction as a by-product. Copyright 1998 Academic Press

Modelling and mitigating refractive propagation effects in precision pulsar timing observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shannon, R. M.; Cordes, J. M.

2017-01-01

To obtain the most accurate pulse arrival times from radio pulsars, it is necessary to correct or mitigate the effects of the propagation of radio waves through the warm and ionized interstellar medium. We examine both the strength of propagation effects associated with large-scale electron-density variations and the methodology used to estimate infinite frequency arrival times. Using simulations of two-dimensional phase-varying screens, we assess the strength and non-stationarity of timing perturbations associated with large-scale density variations. We identify additional contributions to arrival times that are stochastic in both radio frequency and time and therefore not amenable to correction solely using times of arrival. We attribute this to the frequency dependence of the trajectories of the propagating radio waves. We find that this limits the efficacy of low-frequency (metre-wavelength) observations. Incorporating low-frequency pulsar observations into precision timing campaigns is increasingly problematic for pulsars with larger dispersion measures.

Global teleseismic earthquake relocation with improved travel times and procedures for depth determination

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robert, Engdah E.; Van Hilst, R. D.; Buland, Raymond P.

1998-01-01

We relocate nearly 100, 000 events that occurred during the period 1964 to 1995 and are well-constrained teleseismically by arrival-time data reported to the International Seismological Centre (ISC) and to the U. S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC). Hypocenter determination is significantly improved by using, in addition to regional and teleseismic P and S phases, the arrival times of PKiKP, PKPdf, and the teleseismic depth phases pP, pwP, and sP in the relocation procedure. A global probability model developed for later-arriving phases is used to independently identify the depth phases. The relocations are compared to hypocenters reported in the ISC and NEIC catalogs and by other sources. Differences in our epicenters with respect to ISC and NEIC estimates are generally small and regionally systematic due to the combined effects of the observing station network and plate geometry regionally, differences in upper mantle travel times between the reference earth models used, and the use of later-arriving phases. Focal depths are improved substantially over most other independent estimates, demonstrating (for example) how regional structures such as downgoing slabs can severely bias depth estimation when only regional and teleseismic P arrivals are used to determine the hypocenter. The new data base, which is complete to about Mw 5. 2 and includes all events for which moment-tensor solutions are available, has immediate application to high-resolution definition of Wadati-Benioff Zones (WBZs) worldwide, regional and global tomographic imaging, and other studies of earth structure.

Improved Event Location Uncertainty Estimates

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-30

throughout this study . The data set consists of GT0-2 nuclear explosions from the SAIC Nuclear Explosion Database (www.rdss.info, Bahavar et al...errors: Bias and variance In this study SNR dependence of both delay and variance of reading errors of first arriving P waves are analyzed and...ground truth and range of event size. For other datasets we turn to estimates based on double- differences between arrival times of station pairs

Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lawrence M.; Holzer, Matt; Shapiro, Anne

2018-01-01

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

Kalman Filters for Time Delay of Arrival-Based Source Localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klee, Ulrich; Gehrig, Tobias; McDonough, John

2006-12-01

In this work, we propose an algorithm for acoustic source localization based on time delay of arrival (TDOA) estimation. In earlier work by other authors, an initial closed-form approximation was first used to estimate the true position of the speaker followed by a Kalman filtering stage to smooth the time series of estimates. In the proposed algorithm, this closed-form approximation is eliminated by employing a Kalman filter to directly update the speaker's position estimate based on the observed TDOAs. In particular, the TDOAs comprise the observation associated with an extended Kalman filter whose state corresponds to the speaker's position. We tested our algorithm on a data set consisting of seminars held by actual speakers. Our experiments revealed that the proposed algorithm provides source localization accuracy superior to the standard spherical and linear intersection techniques. Moreover, the proposed algorithm, although relying on an iterative optimization scheme, proved efficient enough for real-time operation.

A novel time of arrival estimation algorithm using an energy detector receiver in MMW systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xiaolin; Zhang, Hao; Lyu, Tingting; Xiao, Han; Gulliver, T. Aaron

2017-12-01

This paper presents a new time of arrival (TOA) estimation technique using an improved energy detection (ED) receiver based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in an impulse radio (IR) 60 GHz millimeter wave (MMW) system. A threshold is employed via analyzing the characteristics of the received energy values with an extreme learning machine (ELM). The effect of the channel and integration period on the TOA estimation is evaluated. Several well-known ED-based TOA algorithms are used to compare with the proposed technique. It is shown that this ELM-based technique has lower TOA estimation error compared to other approaches and provides robust performance with the IEEE 802.15.3c channel models.

Clock Synchronization Through Time-Variant Underwater Acoustic Channels

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

stage, we analyze a series of chirp responses to identify the least time -varying multipath present in the channel between the two nodes. Based on the... based on the detected arrivals and determines the most stable one based on the correlation coefficient of a model fit to the time -of-arrival estimates...short periods of time . Nevertheless, signal fluctuations can occur due to transceiver motion or inherent changes within the propagation medium

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: EXCESS NOISE IN MILLISECOND PULSAR ARRIVAL TIMES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lam, M. T.; Jones, M. L.; McLaughlin, M. A.

Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy using a pulsar timing array requires high-quality millisecond pulsars (MSPs), correctable interstellar propagation delays, and high-precision measurements of pulse times of arrival. Here we identify noise in timing residuals that exceeds that predicted for arrival time estimation for MSPs observed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. We characterize the excess noise using variance and structure function analyses. We find that 26 out of 37 pulsars show inconsistencies with a white-noise-only model based on the short timescale analysis of each pulsar, and we demonstrate that the excess noise has a red power spectrum formore » 15 pulsars. We also decompose the excess noise into chromatic (radio-frequency-dependent) and achromatic components. Associating the achromatic red-noise component with spin noise and including additional power-spectrum-based estimates from the literature, we estimate a scaling law in terms of spin parameters (frequency and frequency derivative) and data-span length and compare it to the scaling law of Shannon and Cordes. We briefly discuss our results in terms of detection of GWs at nanohertz frequencies.« less

Robust Bayesian hypocentre and uncertainty region estimation: the effect of heavy-tailed distributions and prior information in cases with poor, inconsistent and insufficient arrival times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinsson, J.

2013-03-01

We propose methods for robust Bayesian inference of the hypocentre in presence of poor, inconsistent and insufficient phase arrival times. The objectives are to increase the robustness, the accuracy and the precision by introducing heavy-tailed distributions and an informative prior distribution of the seismicity. The effects of the proposed distributions are studied under real measurement conditions in two underground mine networks and validated using 53 blasts with known hypocentres. To increase the robustness against poor, inconsistent or insufficient arrivals, a Gaussian Mixture Model is used as a hypocentre prior distribution to describe the seismically active areas, where the parameters are estimated based on previously located events in the region. The prior is truncated to constrain the solution to valid geometries, for example below the ground surface, excluding known cavities, voids and fractured zones. To reduce the sensitivity to outliers, different heavy-tailed distributions are evaluated to model the likelihood distribution of the arrivals given the hypocentre and the origin time. Among these distributions, the multivariate t-distribution is shown to produce the overall best performance, where the tail-mass adapts to the observed data. Hypocentre and uncertainty region estimates are based on simulations from the posterior distribution using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Velocity graphs (equivalent to traveltime graphs) are estimated using blasts from known locations, and applied to reduce the main uncertainties and thereby the final estimation error. To focus on the behaviour and the performance of the proposed distributions, a basic single-event Bayesian procedure is considered in this study for clarity. Estimation results are shown with different distributions, with and without prior distribution of seismicity, with wrong prior distribution, with and without error compensation, with and without error description, with insufficient arrival times and in presence of significant outliers. A particular focus is on visual results and comparisons to give a better understanding of the Bayesian advantage and to show the effects of heavy-tailed distributions and informative prior information on real data.

Estimating uncertainty in subsurface glider position using transmissions from fixed acoustic tomography sources.

PubMed

Van Uffelen, Lora J; Nosal, Eva-Marie; Howe, Bruce M; Carter, Glenn S; Worcester, Peter F; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Heaney, Kevin D; Campbell, Richard L; Cross, Patrick S

2013-10-01

Four acoustic Seagliders were deployed in the Philippine Sea November 2010 to April 2011 in the vicinity of an acoustic tomography array. The gliders recorded over 2000 broadband transmissions at ranges up to 700 km from moored acoustic sources as they transited between mooring sites. The precision of glider positioning at the time of acoustic reception is important to resolve the fundamental ambiguity between position and sound speed. The Seagliders utilized GPS at the surface and a kinematic model below for positioning. The gliders were typically underwater for about 6.4 h, diving to depths of 1000 m and traveling on average 3.6 km during a dive. Measured acoustic arrival peaks were unambiguously associated with predicted ray arrivals. Statistics of travel-time offsets between received arrivals and acoustic predictions were used to estimate range uncertainty. Range (travel time) uncertainty between the source and the glider position from the kinematic model is estimated to be 639 m (426 ms) rms. Least-squares solutions for glider position estimated from acoustically derived ranges from 5 sources differed by 914 m rms from modeled positions, with estimated uncertainty of 106 m rms in horizontal position. Error analysis included 70 ms rms of uncertainty due to oceanic sound-speed variability.

The radial speed-expansion speed relation for Earth-directed CMEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mäkelä, P.; Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.

2016-05-01

Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of major geomagnetic storms. Therefore, a good estimate of the disturbance arrival time at Earth is required for space weather predictions. The STEREO and SOHO spacecraft were viewing the Sun in near quadrature during January 2010 to September 2012, providing a unique opportunity to study the radial speed (Vrad)-expansion speed (Vexp) relationship of Earth-directed CMEs. This relationship is useful in estimating the Vrad of Earth-directed CMEs, when they are observed from Earth view only. We selected 19 Earth-directed CMEs observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)/C3 coronagraph on SOHO and the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/COR2 coronagraph on STEREO during January 2010 to September 2012. We found that of the three tested geometric CME models the full ice-cream cone model of the CME describes best the Vrad-Vexp relationship, as suggested by earlier investigations. We also tested the prediction accuracy of the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model proposed by Gopalswamy et al. (2005a), while estimating the CME propagation speeds from the CME expansion speeds. If we use STEREO observations to estimate the CME width required to calculate the Vrad from the Vexp measurements, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the shock arrival times of the ESA model is 8.4 h. If the LASCO measurements are used to estimate the CME width, the MAE still remains below 17 h. Therefore, by using the simple Vrad-Vexp relationship to estimate the Vrad of the Earth-directed CMEs, the ESA model is able to predict the shock arrival times with accuracy comparable to most other more complex models.

Size speed bias or size arrival effect-How judgments of vehicles' approach speed and time to arrival are influenced by the vehicles' size.

PubMed

Petzoldt, Tibor

2016-10-01

Crashes at railway level crossings are a key problem for railway operations. It has been suggested that a potential explanation for such crashes might lie in a so-called size speed bias, which describes the phenomenon that observers underestimate the speed of larger objects, such as aircraft or trains. While there is some evidence that this size speed bias indeed exists, it is somewhat at odds with another well researched phenomenon, the size arrival effect. When asked to judge the time it takes an approaching object to arrive at a predefined position (time to arrival, TTA), observers tend to provide lower estimates for larger objects. In that case, road users' crossing decisions when confronted with larger vehicles should be rather conservative, which has been confirmed in multiple studies on gap acceptance. The aim of the experiment reported in this paper was to clarify the relationship between size speed bias and size arrival effect. Employing a relative judgment task, both speed and TTA estimates were assessed for virtual depictions of a train and a truck, using a car as a reference to compare against. The results confirmed the size speed bias for the speed judgments, with both train and truck being perceived as travelling slower than the car. A comparable bias was also present in the TTA estimates for the truck. In contrast, no size arrival effect could be found for the train or the truck, neither in the speed nor the TTA judgments. This finding is inconsistent with the fact that crossing behaviour when confronted with larger vehicles appears to be consistently more conservative. This discrepancy might be interpreted as an indication that factors other than perceived speed or TTA play an important role for the differences in gap acceptance between different types of vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approximate Bayesian algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number in an influenza pandemic using arrival times of imported cases.

PubMed

Chong, Ka Chun; Zee, Benny Chung Ying; Wang, Maggie Haitian

2018-04-10

In an influenza pandemic, arrival times of cases are a proxy of the epidemic size and disease transmissibility. Because of intense surveillance of travelers from infected countries, detection is more rapid and complete than on local surveillance. Travel information can provide a more reliable estimation of transmission parameters. We developed an Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) in addition to the reporting rate and unobserved epidemic start time, utilizing travel, and routine surveillance data in an influenza pandemic. A simulation was conducted to assess the sampling uncertainty. The estimation approach was further applied to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico as a case study. In the simulations, we showed that the estimation approach was valid and reliable in different simulation settings. We also found estimates of R 0 and the reporting rate to be 1.37 (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 1.26-1.42) and 4.9% (95% CI: 0.1%-18%), respectively, in the 2009 influenza pandemic in Mexico, which were robust to variations in the fixed parameters. The estimated R 0 was consistent with that in the literature. This method is useful for officials to obtain reliable estimates of disease transmissibility for strategic planning. We suggest that improvements to the flow of reporting for confirmed cases among patients arriving at different countries are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social factors influencing hospital arrival time in acute ischemic stroke patients.

PubMed

Iosif, Christina; Papathanasiou, Mathilda; Staboulis, Eleftherios; Gouliamos, Athanasios

2012-04-01

This is a multi-center, hospital-based study aiming to estimate social factors influencing pre-hospital times of arrival in acute ischemic stroke, with a perspective of finding ways to reduce arrival time and to augment the number of patients eligible for intra-arterial thrombolysis. Acute ischemic stroke patients who presented at the emergency units of four major general public hospitals were registered. We assessed information concerning demographics, time of presentation, clinical situation, imaging, treatment, and socioeconomic factors. The sample was divided in two sub-samples, based on the time of arrival since onset of symptoms, and was statistically analyzed. During one calendar year (2005), 907 patients were registered. Among them 34.6% arrived in the first 6 h from symptom onset, 38.7% arrived between 6 and 24 h, 18.1% after 24 h and for 8.6% the time of onset was unknown. Younger age (P = 0.007), transfer with ambulatory service (Ρ = 0.002), living with a mate (Ρ = 0.004), and higher educational level (P < 0.005) were factors which correlated significantly with early arrival at the hospital. Instructing patients at high risk for stroke to live with a housemate appears beneficial for timely arrival at the hospital. The establishment of dedicated acute stroke call and transportation center should improve the percentage of early arrival. A national information campaign is needed to increase the level of awareness of the population concerning beneficial social behaviors and optimal reaction to symptoms of acute ischemic stroke.

Emergency department arrival times after acute ischemic stroke during the 1990s.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Dawn O; Broderick, Joseph P; Khoury, Jane; Flaherty, Matthew L; Woo, Daniel; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Pancioli, Arthur; Jauch, Edward; Miller, Rosie; Kissela, Brett M

2007-01-01

Only 8% of ischemic stroke (IS) patients are eligible for rt-PA, and the largest exclusion criterion is delayed time of presentation to the ED. We sought to investigate whether patients are arriving to the ED more quickly in 1999 than in 1993/94 within our large biracial population of 1.3 million. Using ICD-9 codes 430-436, we ascertained all stroke events that presented to a local ED within our population in 7/93-6/94 and again in 1999. Times were recorded as documented in the medical record. There were 1,792 IS patients that presented to an ED in 1993/94 and 1,973 in 1999. The percentage of patients with documented times arriving in under 3 h improved slightly in 1999 (26% vs. 23% in 93/94, P = 0.03), however, the percentage arriving in under 2 h did not. Blacks significantly improved in arrivals under 3 h: 26% in 1999 compared to 17% in 1993/94 (P = 0.01), while whites did not (26% vs. 25%, P = 0.29). In 1999, only 9% of patients arrived from 3-8 h after symptom onset, the large majority of times were either estimated, unknown, or >8 h. We found only marginal improvement in arrival times during the 1990s. In our population, blacks improved in early arrival after symptom onset, while whites did not. Very few patients arrive 3-8 h after onset; therefore expansion of the acute treatment time window to 8 h is unlikely to dramatically affect acute treatment of ischemic stroke.

The interplanetary shock of September 24, 1998: Arrival at Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, C. T.; Wang, Y. L.; Raeder, J.; Tokar, R. L.; Smith, C. W.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Lazarus, A. J.; Lepping, R. P.; Szabo, A.; Kawano, H.; Mukai, T.; Savin, S.; Yermolaev, Y. I.; Zhou, X.-Y.; Tsurutani, B. T.

2000-11-01

At close to 2345 UT on September 24, 1998, the magnetosphere was suddenly compressed by the passage of an interplanetary shock. In order to properly interpret the magnetospheric events triggered by the arrival of this shock, we calculate the orientation of the shock, its velocity, and its estimated time of arrival at the nose of the magnetosphere. Our best fit shock normal has an orientation of (-0.981 -0.157 -0.112) in solar ecliptic coordinates, a speed of 769 km/s, and an arrival time of 2344:19 at the magnetopause at 10 RE. Since measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are available from multiple spacecraft, we can compare several different techniques of shock-normal determination. Of the single spacecraft techniques the magnetic coplanarity solution is most accurate and the mixed mode solution is of lesser accuracy. Uncertainty in the timing and location of the IMP 8 spacecraft limits the accuracy of solutions using the time of arrival at the position of IMP 8.

The effect of S-wave arrival times on the accuracy of hypocenter estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.S.; Shedlock, K.M.; Roecker, S.W.

1990-01-01

We have examined the theoretical basis behind some of the widely accepted "rules of thumb' for obtaining accurate hypocenter estimates that pertain to the use of S phases and illustrate, in a variety of ways, why and when these "rules' are applicable. Most methods used to determine earthquake hypocenters are based on iterative, linearized, least-squares algorithms. We examine the influence of S-phase arrival time data on such algorithms by using the program HYPOINVERSE with synthetic datasets. We conclude that a correctly timed S phase recorded within about 1.4 focal depth's distance from the epicenter can be a powerful constraint on focal depth. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even a single incorrectly timed S phase can result in depth estimates and associated measures of uncertainty that are significantly incorrect. -from Authors

Delay-and-sum beamforming for direction of arrival estimation applied to gunshot acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, António L. L.; Holm, Sverre; Gudvangen, Sigmund; Otterlei, Ragnvald

2011-06-01

Sniper positioning systems described in the literature use a two-step algorithm to estimate the sniper's location. First, the shockwave and the muzzle blast acoustic signatures must be detected and recognized, followed by an estimation of their respective direction-of-arrival (DOA). Second, the actual sniper's position is calculated based on the estimated DOA via an iterative algorithm that varies from system to system. The overall performance of such a system, however, is highly compromised when the first step is not carried out successfully. Currently available systems rely on a simple calculation of differences of time-of-arrival to estimate angles-of-arrival. This approach, however, lacks robustness by not taking full advantage of the array of sensors. This paper shows how the delay-and-sum beamforming technique can be applied to estimate the DOA for both the shockwave and the muzzle blast. The method has the twofold advantage of 1) adding an array gain of 10 logM, i.e., an increased SNR of 6 dB for a 4-microphone array, which is equivalent to doubling the detection range assuming free-field propagation; and 2) offering improved robustness in handling single- and multi-shots events as well as reflections by taking advantage of the spatial filtering capability.

Predicting Ambulance Time of Arrival to the Emergency Department Using Global Positioning System and Google Maps

PubMed Central

Fleischman, Ross J.; Lundquist, Mark; Jui, Jonathan; Newgard, Craig D.; Warden, Craig

2014-01-01

Objective To derive and validate a model that accurately predicts ambulance arrival time that could be implemented as a Google Maps web application. Methods This was a retrospective study of all scene transports in Multnomah County, Oregon, from January 1 through December 31, 2008. Scene and destination hospital addresses were converted to coordinates. ArcGIS Network Analyst was used to estimate transport times based on street network speed limits. We then created a linear regression model to improve the accuracy of these street network estimates using weather, patient characteristics, use of lights and sirens, daylight, and rush-hour intervals. The model was derived from a 50% sample and validated on the remainder. Significance of the covariates was determined by p < 0.05 for a t-test of the model coefficients. Accuracy was quantified by the proportion of estimates that were within 5 minutes of the actual transport times recorded by computer-aided dispatch. We then built a Google Maps-based web application to demonstrate application in real-world EMS operations. Results There were 48,308 included transports. Street network estimates of transport time were accurate within 5 minutes of actual transport time less than 16% of the time. Actual transport times were longer during daylight and rush-hour intervals and shorter with use of lights and sirens. Age under 18 years, gender, wet weather, and trauma system entry were not significant predictors of transport time. Our model predicted arrival time within 5 minutes 73% of the time. For lights and sirens transports, accuracy was within 5 minutes 77% of the time. Accuracy was identical in the validation dataset. Lights and sirens saved an average of 3.1 minutes for transports under 8.8 minutes, and 5.3 minutes for longer transports. Conclusions An estimate of transport time based only on a street network significantly underestimated transport times. A simple model incorporating few variables can predict ambulance time of arrival to the emergency department with good accuracy. This model could be linked to global positioning system data and an automated Google Maps web application to optimize emergency department resource use. Use of lights and sirens had a significant effect on transport times. PMID:23865736

Determination of differential arrival times by cross-correlating worldwide seismological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godano, M.; Nolet, G.; Zaroli, C.

2012-12-01

Cross-correlation delays are the preferred body wave observables in global tomography. Heterogeneity is the main factor influencing delay times found by cross-correlation. Not only the waveform, but also the arrival time itself is affected by differences in seismic velocity encountered along the way. An accurate method for estimating differential times of seismic arrivals across a regional array by cross-correlation was developed by VanDecar and Crosson [1990]. For the estimation of global travel time delays in different frequency bands, Sigloch and Nolet [2006] developed a method for the estimation of body wave delays using a matched filter, which requires the separate estimation of the source time function. Sigloch et al. [2008] found that waveforms often cluster in and opposite the direction of rupture propagation on the fault, confirming that the directivity effect is a major factor in shaping the waveform of large events. We propose a generalization of the VanDecar-Crosson method to which we add a correction for the directivity effect in the seismological data. The new method allows large events to be treated without the need to estimate the source time function for the computation of a matched synthetic waveform. The procedure consists in (1) the detection of the directivity effect in the data and the determination of a rupture model (unilateral or bilateral) explaining the differences in pulse duration among the stations, (2) the determination of an apparent fault rupture length explaining the pulse durations, (3) the removal of the delay due to the directivity effect in the pulse duration , by stretching or contracting the seismograms for directive and anti-directive stations respectively and (4) the application of a generalized VanDecar and Crosson method using only delays between pairs of stations that have an acceptable correlation coefficient. We validate our method by performing tests on synthetic data. Results show that the error between theoretical and measured differential arrival time are significantly reduced for the corrected data. We illustrate our method on data from several real earthquakes.

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyn, Larry A.; Erzberger, Heinz; Huynh, Phu V.

2011-01-01

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

Evaluation of the real-time earthquake information system in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Horiuchi, Shigeki; Wu, Changjiang; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Rydelek, Paul A.

2009-01-01

The real-time earthquake information system (REIS) of the Japanese seismic network is developed for automatically determining earthquake parameters within a few seconds after the P-waves arrive at the closest stations using both the P-wave arrival times and the timing data that P-waves have not yet arrived at other stations. REIS results play a fundamental role in the real-time information for earthquake early warning in Japan. We show the rapidity and accuracy of REIS from the analysis of 4,050 earthquakes in three years since 2005; 44 percent of the first reports are issued within 5 seconds after the first P-wave arrival and 80 percent of the events have a difference in epicenter distance less than 20 km relative to manually determined locations. We compared the formal catalog to the estimated magnitude from the real-time analysis and found that 94 percent of the events had a magnitude difference of +/-1.0 unit.

Covariance-based direction-of-arrival estimation of wideband coherent chirp signals via sparse representation.

PubMed

Sha, Zhichao; Liu, Zhengmeng; Huang, Zhitao; Zhou, Yiyu

2013-08-29

This paper addresses the problem of direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation of multiple wideband coherent chirp signals, and a new method is proposed. The new method is based on signal component analysis of the array output covariance, instead of the complicated time-frequency analysis used in previous literatures, and thus is more compact and effectively avoids possible signal energy loss during the hyper-processes. Moreover, the a priori information of signal number is no longer a necessity for DOA estimation in the new method. Simulation results demonstrate the performance superiority of the new method over previous ones.

A Constrained Least Squares Approach to Mobile Positioning: Algorithms and Optimality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, KW; So, HC; Ma, W.-K.; Chan, YT

2006-12-01

The problem of locating a mobile terminal has received significant attention in the field of wireless communications. Time-of-arrival (TOA), received signal strength (RSS), time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA), and angle-of-arrival (AOA) are commonly used measurements for estimating the position of the mobile station. In this paper, we present a constrained weighted least squares (CWLS) mobile positioning approach that encompasses all the above described measurement cases. The advantages of CWLS include performance optimality and capability of extension to hybrid measurement cases (e.g., mobile positioning using TDOA and AOA measurements jointly). Assuming zero-mean uncorrelated measurement errors, we show by mean and variance analysis that all the developed CWLS location estimators achieve zero bias and the Cramér-Rao lower bound approximately when measurement error variances are small. The asymptotic optimum performance is also confirmed by simulation results.

UWB pulse detection and TOA estimation using GLRT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yan; Janssen, Gerard J. M.; Shakeri, Siavash; Tiberius, Christiaan C. J. M.

2017-12-01

In this paper, a novel statistical approach is presented for time-of-arrival (TOA) estimation based on first path (FP) pulse detection using a sub-Nyquist sampling ultra-wide band (UWB) receiver. The TOA measurement accuracy, which cannot be improved by averaging of the received signal, can be enhanced by the statistical processing of a number of TOA measurements. The TOA statistics are modeled and analyzed for a UWB receiver using threshold crossing detection of a pulse signal with noise. The detection and estimation scheme based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) detector, which captures the full statistical information of the measurement data, is shown to achieve accurate TOA estimation and allows for a trade-off between the threshold level, the noise level, the amplitude and the arrival time of the first path pulse, and the accuracy of the obtained final TOA.

Acoustical Direction Finding with Time-Modulated Arrays

PubMed Central

Clark, Ben; Flint, James A.

2016-01-01

Time-Modulated Linear Arrays (TMLAs) offer useful efficiency savings over conventional phased arrays when applied in parameter estimation applications. The present paper considers the application of TMLAs to acoustic systems and proposes an algorithm for efficiently deriving the arrival angle of a signal. The proposed technique is applied in the frequency domain, where the signal and harmonic content is captured. Using a weighted average method on harmonic amplitudes and their respective main beam angles, it is possible to determine an estimate for the signal’s direction of arrival. The method is demonstrated and evaluated using results from both numerical and practical implementations and performance data is provided. The use of Micro-Electromechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors allows time-modulation techniques to be applied at ultrasonic frequencies. Theoretical predictions for an array of five isotropic elements with half-wavelength spacing and 1000 data samples suggest an accuracy of ±1∘ within an angular range of approximately ±50∘. In experiments of a 40 kHz five-element microphone array, a Direction of Arrival (DoA) estimation within ±2.5∘ of the target signal is readily achieved inside a ±45∘ range using a single switched input stage and a simple hardware setup. PMID:27973432

78 FR 70570 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Arrival and Departure Record (Forms I-94 and I-94W) and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-26

... information technology; and (e) the annual costs burden to respondents or record keepers from the collection... estimated time to complete ESTA or Form I-94W. There are no proposed changes to Form I-94. Type of Review... Responses: 4,387,550. Estimated Time per Response: 8 minutes. Estimated Burden Hours: 583,544. Estimated...

Counting Raindrops and the Distribution of Intervals Between Them.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van De Giesen, N.; Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Hut, R.; Pape, J. J.

2017-12-01

Drop size distributions are often assumed to follow a generalized gamma function, characterized by one parameter, Λ, [1]. In principle, this Λ can be estimated by measuring the arrival rate of raindrops. The arrival rate should follow a Poisson distribution. By measuring the distribution of the time intervals between drops arriving at a certain surface area, one should not only be able to estimate the arrival rate but also the robustness of the underlying assumption concerning steady state. It is important to note that many rainfall radar systems also assume fixeddrop size distributions, and associated arrival rates, to derive rainfall rates. By testing these relationships with a simple device, we will be able to improve both land-based and space-based radar rainfall estimates. Here, an open-hardware sensor design is presented, consisting of a 3D printed housing for a piezoelectric element, some simple electronics and an Arduino. The target audience for this device are citizen scientists who want to contribute to collecting rainfall information beyond the standard rain gauge. The core of the sensor is a simple piezo-buzzer, as found in many devices such as watches and fire alarms. When a raindrop falls on a piezo-buzzer, a small voltage is generated , which can be used to register the drop's arrival time. By registering the intervals between raindrops, the associated Poisson distribution can be estimated. In addition to the hardware, we will present the first results of a measuring campaign in Myanmar that will have ran from August to October 2017. All design files and descriptions are available through GitHub: https://github.com/nvandegiesen/Intervalometer. This research is partially supported through the TWIGA project, funded by the European Commission's H2020 program under call SC5-18-2017 `Novel in-situ observation systems'. Reference [1]: Uijlenhoet, R., and J. N. M. Stricker. "A consistent rainfall parameterization based on the exponential raindrop size distribution." Journal of Hydrology 218, no. 3 (1999): 101-127.

The incorporation of fault zone head wave and direct wave secondary arrival times and arrival polarizations into seismic tomography: Application to the Parkfield, California area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennington, N. L.; Thurber, C. H.; Peng, Z.; Zhao, P.

2012-12-01

We present a 3D P-wave velocity (Vp) model of the Parkfield region that utilizes existing P-wave arrival time data, including fault zone head waves (FZHW), plus new data from direct wave secondary arrivals (DWSA). The first-arrival and DWSA travel times are obtained as the global and local minimum travel time paths, respectively. The inclusion of DWSA results in as much as a 10% increase in the across-fault velocity contrast for the Vp model at Parkfield relative to Thurber et al. (2006). Viewed along strike, three pronounced velocity contrast regions are observed: a pair of strong positive velocity contrasts (SW fast), one NW of the 1966 Parkfield hypocenter and the other SE of the 2004 Parkfield hypocenter, and a strong negative velocity contrast (NE fast) between the two hypocenters. The negative velocity contrast partially to entirely encompasses peak coseismic slip estimated in several slip models for the 2004 earthquake, suggesting that the negative velocity contrast played a part in defining the rupture patch of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. We expand on this work by modifying our seismic tomography algorithm to incorporate arrival polarizations (azimuths). Synthetic tests will be presented to demonstrate the improvements in velocity structure when arrival polarizations are incorporated. These tests will compare the synthetic model recovered when FZHW/DWSA arrivals as well as existing P-wave arrival time data are inverted to that recovered with the same dataset with the inclusion of arrival polarizations. We plan to extend this work to carry out a full scale seismic tomography/relocation inversion at Parkfield, CA utilizing arrival polarizations from all first-P arrivals, and FZHW/DWSA arrivals as well as existing P-wave arrival time data. This effort requires the determination of polarization data for all P-waves and FZHW's at Parkfield. To this end, we use changes in the arrival azimuth from fault normal to source-receiver direction to identify FZHW and DWSA arrivals. We also use an eigenvalue decomposition to determine the direction of the incoming wave field, and to measure the arrival azimuths. This work is supported by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program under grant numbers G11AP20027 and G11AP20028.

Mitigating Photon Jitter in Optical PPM Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moision, Bruce

2008-01-01

A theoretical analysis of photon-arrival jitter in an optical pulse-position-modulation (PPM) communication channel has been performed, and now constitutes the basis of a methodology for designing receivers to compensate so that errors attributable to photon-arrival jitter would be minimized or nearly minimized. Photon-arrival jitter is an uncertainty in the estimated time of arrival of a photon relative to the boundaries of a PPM time slot. Photon-arrival jitter is attributable to two main causes: (1) receiver synchronization error [error in the receiver operation of partitioning time into PPM slots] and (2) random delay between the time of arrival of a photon at a detector and the generation, by the detector circuitry, of a pulse in response to the photon. For channels with sufficiently long time slots, photon-arrival jitter is negligible. However, as durations of PPM time slots are reduced in efforts to increase throughputs of optical PPM communication channels, photon-arrival jitter becomes a significant source of error, leading to significant degradation of performance if not taken into account in design. For the purpose of the analysis, a receiver was assumed to operate in a photon- starved regime, in which photon counts follow a Poisson distribution. The analysis included derivation of exact equations for symbol likelihoods in the presence of photon-arrival jitter. These equations describe what is well known in the art as a matched filter for a channel containing Gaussian noise. These equations would yield an optimum receiver if they could be implemented in practice. Because the exact equations may be too complex to implement in practice, approximations that would yield suboptimal receivers were also derived.

Deconvolution enhanced direction of arrival estimation using one- and three-component seismic arrays applied to ocean induced microseisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gal, M.; Reading, A. M.; Ellingsen, S. P.; Koper, K. D.; Burlacu, R.; Gibbons, S. J.

2016-07-01

Microseisms in the period of 2-10 s are generated in deep oceans and near coastal regions. It is common for microseisms from multiple sources to arrive at the same time at a given seismometer. It is therefore desirable to be able to measure multiple slowness vectors accurately. Popular ways to estimate the direction of arrival of ocean induced microseisms are the conventional (fk) or adaptive (Capon) beamformer. These techniques give robust estimates, but are limited in their resolution capabilities and hence do not always detect all arrivals. One of the limiting factors in determining direction of arrival with seismic arrays is the array response, which can strongly influence the estimation of weaker sources. In this work, we aim to improve the resolution for weaker sources and evaluate the performance of two deconvolution algorithms, Richardson-Lucy deconvolution and a new implementation of CLEAN-PSF. The algorithms are tested with three arrays of different aperture (ASAR, WRA and NORSAR) using 1 month of real data each and compared with the conventional approaches. We find an improvement over conventional methods from both algorithms and the best performance with CLEAN-PSF. We then extend the CLEAN-PSF framework to three components (3C) and evaluate 1 yr of data from the Pilbara Seismic Array in northwest Australia. The 3C CLEAN-PSF analysis is capable in resolving a previously undetected Sn phase.

Passive acoustic localization of the Atlantic bottlenose dolphin using whistles and echolocation clicks.

PubMed

Freitag, L E; Tyack, P L

1993-04-01

A method for localization and tracking of calling marine mammals was tested under realistic field conditions that include noise, multipath, and arbitrarily located sensors. Experiments were performed in two locations using four and six hydrophones with captive Atlantic bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). Acoustic signals from the animals were collected in the field using a digital acoustic data acquisition system. The data were then processed off-line to determine relative hydrophone positions and the animal locations. Accurate hydrophone position estimates are achieved by pinging sequentially from each hydrophone to all the others. A two-step least-squares algorithm is then used to determine sensor locations from the calibration data. Animal locations are determined by estimating the time differences of arrival of the dolphin signals at the different sensors. The peak of a matched filter output or the first cycle of the observed waveform is used to determine arrival time of an echolocation click. Cross correlation between hydrophones is used to determine inter-sensor time delays of whistles. Calculation of source location using the time difference of arrival measurements is done using a least-squares solution to minimize error. These preliminary experimental results based on a small set of data show that realistic trajectories for moving animals may be generated from consecutive location estimates.

X-Ray Detection and Processing Models for Spacecraft Navigation and Timing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheikh, Suneel; Hanson, John

2013-01-01

The current primary method of deepspace navigation is the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN). High-performance navigation is achieved using Delta Differential One-Way Range techniques that utilize simultaneous observations from multiple DSN sites, and incorporate observations of quasars near the line-of-sight to a spacecraft in order to improve the range and angle measurement accuracies. Over the past four decades, x-ray astronomers have identified a number of xray pulsars with pulsed emissions having stabilities comparable to atomic clocks. The x-ray pulsar-based navigation and time determination (XNAV) system uses phase measurements from these sources to establish autonomously the position of the detector, and thus the spacecraft, relative to a known reference frame, much as the Global Positioning System (GPS) uses phase measurements from radio signals from several satellites to establish the position of the user relative to an Earth-centered fixed frame of reference. While a GPS receiver uses an antenna to detect the radio signals, XNAV uses a detector array to capture the individual xray photons from the x-ray pulsars. The navigation solution relies on detailed xray source models, signal processing, navigation and timing algorithms, and analytical tools that form the basis of an autonomous XNAV system. Through previous XNAV development efforts, some techniques have been established to utilize a pulsar pulse time-of-arrival (TOA) measurement to correct a position estimate. One well-studied approach, based upon Kalman filter methods, optimally adjusts a dynamic orbit propagation solution based upon the offset in measured and predicted pulse TOA. In this delta position estimator scheme, previously estimated values of spacecraft position and velocity are utilized from an onboard orbit propagator. Using these estimated values, the detected arrival times at the spacecraft of pulses from a pulsar are compared to the predicted arrival times defined by the pulsar s pulse timing model. A discrepancy provides an estimate of the spacecraft position offset, since an error in position will relate to the measured time offset of a pulse along the line of sight to the pulsar. XNAV researchers have been developing additional enhanced approaches to process the photon TOAs to arrive at an estimate of spacecraft position, including those using maximum-likelihood estimation, digital phase locked loops, and "single photon processing" schemes that utilize all available time data associated with each photon. Using pulsars from separate, non-coplanar locations provides range and range-rate measurements in each pulsar s direction. Combining these different pulsar measurements solves for offsets in position and velocity in three dimensions, and provides accurate overall navigation for deep space vehicles.

The Radial Speed-Expansion Speed Relation for Earth-Directed CMEs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Makela, P.; Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.

2016-01-01

Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of major geomagnetic storms. Therefore, a good estimate of the disturbance arrival time at Earth is required for space weather predictions. The STEREO and SOHO spacecraft were viewing the Sun in near quadrature during January 2010 to September 2012, providing a unique opportunity to study the radial speed (V (sub rad)) to expansion speed(V (sub exp)) relationship of Earth-directed CMEs. This relationship is useful in estimating the V (sub rad) of Earth-directed CMEs, when they are observed from Earth view only. We selected 19 Earth-directed CMEs observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)/C3 coronagraph on SOHO and the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/COR2 coronagraph on STEREO during January 2010 to September 2012. We found that of the three tested geometric CME models the full ice-cream cone model of the CME describes best the V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship, as suggested by earlier investigations. We also tested the prediction accuracy of the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model proposed by Gopalswamy et al.(2005a), while estimating the CME propagation speeds from the CME expansion speeds. If we use STEREO observations to estimate the CME width required to calculate the V (sub rad) from the V (sub exp) measurements, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the shock arrival times of the ESA model is 8.4 hours. If the LASCO measurements are used to estimate the CME width, the MAE still remains below 17 hours. Therefore, by using the simple V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship to estimate the V (sub rad) of the Earth-directed CMEs, the ESA model is able to predict the shock arrival times with accuracy comparable to most other more complex models.

Spiral-shaped piezoelectric sensors for Lamb waves direction of arrival (DoA) estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Marchi, L.; Testoni, N.; Marzani, A.

2018-04-01

A novel strategy to design piezoelectric sensors suited for direction of arrival (DoA) estimation of incoming Lamb waves is presented in this work. The designed sensor is composed by two piezoelectric patches (P1, P2) bonded on the structure to be inspected. In particular, by exploiting the Radon transform, the proposed procedure computes the shape of P2 given the shape of P1 so that the difference in time of arrival (DToA) of the Lamb waves at the two patches is linearly related to the DoA while being agnostic of the waveguide dispersion curves. With a dedicated processing procedure, the waveforms acquired from the two electrodes and digitized can be used to retrieve the DoA information. Numerical and experimental results show that DoA estimation performed by means of the proposed shaped transducers is extremely robust.

Direction of Arrival Estimation Using a Reconfigurable Array

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-06

civilian world. Keywords: Direction-of-arrival Estimation MUSIC algorithm Reconfigurable Array Experimental Created by Neevia Personal...14. SUBJECT TERMS: Direction-of-arrival ; Estimation ; MUSIC algorithm ; Reconfigurable ; Array ; Experimental 16. PRICE CODE 17...9 1.5 MuSiC Algorithm

Ensemble Modeling of the July 23, 2012 CME Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, M. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Millward, G.; Arge, C. N.; Henney, C. J.

2013-12-01

On July 23, 2012 a large and very fast coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed by STEREO A. This CME was unusual in that the estimates of the speed of the CME ranged from 2125 km/s to 2780 km/s based on dividing the distance of STEREO A from the Sun by the transit time of the CME. Modeling of this CME event with the WSA-Enlil model has also suggested that a very fast speed is required in order to obtain the correct arrival time at 1 AU. We present a systematic study of parameter space for the July 23, 2012 CME event through an ensemble study using the WSA-Enlil model to predict the arrival time of the CME at STEREO A. We investigate how variations in the initial speed, angular width, and direction affect the predicted arrival time. We also explore how variations in the background solar wind influence CME arrival time by using varying ADAPT maps within our ensemble study. Factors involved in the fast transit time of this large CME are discussed and the optimal CME parameters are presented.

Estimation of Traffic Variables Using Point Processing Techniques

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-05-01

An alternative approach to estimating aggregate traffic variables on freeways--spatial mean velocity and density--is presented. Vehicle arrival times at a given location on a roadway, typically a presence detector, are regarded as a point or counting...

CISN ShakeAlert: Improving the Virtual Seismologist (VS) earthquake early warning framework to provide faster, more robust warning information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, M.; Cua, G. B.; Wiemer, S.; Fischer, M.

2011-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) that uses observed phase arrivals, ground motion amplitudes and selected prior information to estimate earthquake magnitude, location and origin time, and predict the distribution of peak ground motion throughout a region using envelope attenuation relationships. Implementation of the VS algorithm in California is an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zürich. VS is one of three EEW algorithms - the other two being ElarmS (Allen and Kanamori, 2003) and On-Site (Wu and Kanamori, 2005; Boese et al., 2008) - that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network ShakeAlert system, a prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. The current prototype version of VS in California requires picks at 4 stations to initiate an event declaration. On average, taking into account data latency, variable station distribution, and processing time, this initial estimate is available about 20 seconds after the earthquake origin time, corresponding to a blind zone of about 70 km around the epicenter which would receive no warning, but where it would be the most useful. To increase the available warning time, we want to produce EEW estimates faster (with less than 4 stations). However, working with less than 4 stations with our current approach would increase the number of false alerts, for which there is very little tolerance in a useful EEW system. We explore the use of back-azimuth estimations and the Voronoi-based concept of not-yet-arrived data for reducing false alerts of the earliest VS estimates. The concept of not-yet-arrived data was originally used to provide evolutionary location estimates in EEW (Horiuchi, 2005; Cua and Heaton, 2007; Satriano et al. 2008). However, it can also be applied in discriminating between earthquake and non-earthquake signals. For real earthquakes, the constraints on earthquake location from the not-yet-arrived data and the back-azimuth estimations are consistent with location constraints from the available picks. For non-earthquake signals, these different location constraints are in most cases inconsistent. We use archived event data from the Northern and Southern California Seismic Networks as well as archived continuous waveform data from where the current VS codes erroneously declared events to quantify how using a combination of pick-based and not-yet-arrived data constraints can reduce VS false alert rates while providing faster warning information. The consistency of the pick-based and not-yet-arrived data constraints are mapped into the VS likelihood parameter, which reflects the degree of believe that the signals come from a real earthquake. This approach contributes towards improving the robustness of the Virtual Seismologist Multiple Threshold Event Detection (VS-MTED), which allows for single-station event declarations, when signal amplitudes are large enough.

Forest landowner decisions and the value of information under fire risk.

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We estimate the value of three types of information about fire risk to a nonindustrial forest landowner: the relationship between fire arrival rates and stand age, the magnitude of fire arrival rates, and the efficacy of fuel reduction treatment. Our model incorporates planting density and the level and timing of fuel reduction treatment as landowner decisions. These...

On the more accurate channel model and positioning based on time-of-arrival for visible light localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amini, Changeez; Taherpour, Abbas; Khattab, Tamer; Gazor, Saeed

2017-01-01

This paper presents an improved propagation channel model for the visible light in indoor environments. We employ this model to derive an enhanced positioning algorithm using on the relation between the time-of-arrivals (TOAs) and the distances for two cases either by assuming known or unknown transmitter and receiver vertical distances. We propose two estimators, namely the maximum likelihood estimator and an estimator by employing the method of moments. To have an evaluation basis for these methods, we calculate the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the performance of the estimations. We show that the proposed model and estimations result in a superior performance in positioning when the transmitter and receiver are perfectly synchronized in comparison to the existing state-of-the-art counterparts. Moreover, the corresponding CRLB of the proposed model represents almost about 20 dB reduction in the localization error bound in comparison with the previous model for some practical scenarios.

Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

PubMed

Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

2013-01-01

Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao

2017-01-01

Time-based flow management provides arrival aircraft schedules based on arrival airport conditions, airport capacity, required spacing, and weather conditions. In order to meet a scheduled time at which arrival aircraft can cross an airport arrival meter fix prior to entering the airport terminal airspace, air traffic controllers make regulations on air traffic. Severe weather may create an airport arrival bottleneck if one or more of airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by the weather and the arrival demand has not been reduced accordingly. Under these conditions, aircraft are frequently being put in holding patterns until they can be rerouted. A model that predicts the weather impacted meter fix throughput may help air traffic controllers direct arrival flows into the airport more efficiently, minimizing arrival meter fix congestion. This paper presents an analysis of air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Several scenarios of weather impacted EWR arrival fix flows are described. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and regression tree ensemble learning approaches for translating multiple sector Weather Impacted Traffic Indexes (WITI) to EWR arrival meter fix throughputs are examined. These weather translation models are developed and validated using the EWR arrival flight and weather data for the period of April-September in 2014. This study also compares the performance of the regression tree ensemble with traditional multiple linear regression models for estimating the weather impacted throughputs at each of the EWR arrival meter fixes. For all meter fixes investigated, the results from the regression tree ensemble weather translation models show a stronger correlation between model outputs and observed meter fix throughputs than that produced from multiple linear regression method.

Tomographic inversion of P-wave velocity and Q structures beneath the Kirishima volcanic complex, Southern Japan, based on finite difference calculations of complex traveltimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tomatsu, T.; Kumagai, H.; Dawson, P.B.

2001-01-01

We estimate the P-wave velocity and attenuation structures beneath the Kirishima volcanic complex, southern Japan, by inverting the complex traveltimes (arrival times and pulse widths) of waveform data obtained during an active seismic experiment conducted in 1994. In this experiment, six 200-250 kg shots were recorded at 163 temporary seismic stations deployed on the volcanic complex. We use first-arrival times for the shots, which were hand-measured interactively. The waveform data are Fourier transformed into the frequency domain and analysed using a new method based on autoregressive modelling of complex decaying oscillations in the frequency domain to determine pulse widths for the first-arrival phases. A non-linear inversion method is used to invert 893 first-arrival times and 325 pulse widths to estimate the velocity and attenuation structures of the volcanic complex. Wavefronts for the inversion are calculated with a finite difference method based on the Eikonal equation, which is well suited to estimating the complex traveltimes for the structures of the Kirishima volcano complex, where large structural heterogeneities are expected. The attenuation structure is derived using ray paths derived from the velocity structure. We obtain 3-D velocity and attenuation structures down to 1.5 and 0.5 km below sea level, respectively. High-velocity pipe-like structures with correspondingly low attenuation are found under the summit craters. These pipe-like structures are interpreted as remnant conduits of solidified magma. No evidence of a shallow magma chamber is visible in the tomographic images.

A Comparison of Center/TRACON Automation System and Airline Time of Arrival Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heere, Karen R.; Zelenka, Richard E.

2000-01-01

Benefits from information sharing between an air traffic service provider and a major air carrier are evaluated. Aircraft arrival time schedules generated by the NASA/FAA Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) were provided to the American Airlines System Operations Control Center in Fort Worth, Texas, during a field trial of a specialized CTAS display. A statistical analysis indicates that the CTAS schedules, based on aircraft trajectories predicted from real-time radar and weather data, are substantially more accurate than the traditional airline arrival time estimates, constructed from flight plans and en route crew updates. The improvement offered by CTAS is especially advantageous during periods of heavy traffic and substantial terminal area delay, allowing the airline to avoid large predictive errors with serious impact on the efficiency and profitability of flight operations.

75 FR 59733 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Arrival and Departure Record (Forms I-94 and I-94W) and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-28

... of information (a total capital/startup costs and operations and maintenance costs). The comments... Number of Respondents: 100,000. Estimated Number of Total Annual Responses: 100,000. Estimated Time per...

Joint Estimation of Time-Frequency Signature and DOA Based on STFD for Multicomponent Chirp Signals

PubMed Central

Zhao, Ziyue; Liu, Congfeng

2014-01-01

In the study of the joint estimation of time-frequency signature and direction of arrival (DOA) for multicomponent chirp signals, an estimation method based on spatial time-frequency distributions (STFDs) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, array signal model for multicomponent chirp signals is presented and then array processing is applied in time-frequency analysis to mitigate cross-terms. According to the results of the array processing, Hough transform is performed and the estimation of time-frequency signature is obtained. Subsequently, subspace method for DOA estimation based on STFD matrix is achieved. Simulation results demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. PMID:27382610

Joint Estimation of Time-Frequency Signature and DOA Based on STFD for Multicomponent Chirp Signals.

PubMed

Zhao, Ziyue; Liu, Congfeng

2014-01-01

In the study of the joint estimation of time-frequency signature and direction of arrival (DOA) for multicomponent chirp signals, an estimation method based on spatial time-frequency distributions (STFDs) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, array signal model for multicomponent chirp signals is presented and then array processing is applied in time-frequency analysis to mitigate cross-terms. According to the results of the array processing, Hough transform is performed and the estimation of time-frequency signature is obtained. Subsequently, subspace method for DOA estimation based on STFD matrix is achieved. Simulation results demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.

76 FR 28239 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Arrival and Departure Record (Forms I-94 and I-94W) and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-16

.../startup costs and operations and maintenance costs). The comments that are submitted will be summarized... Number of Respondents: 100,000. Estimated Number of Total Annual Responses: 100,000. Estimated Time per...

An investigation of TNAV equipped aircraft in a simulated en route metering environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groce, J. L.; Izumi, K. H.; Markham, C. H.; Schwab, R. W.; Taylor, J. A.

1986-01-01

This document presents the results of an effort to estimate how often a TNAV (Time Navigation) equipped aircraft could be given a TNAV clearance in the En Route Metering (ERM) system as a function of the percentage of arriving traffic which is TNAV equipped. A fast-time simulation of Denver Stapleton international arrival traffic in the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center route structure, including en route metering operations, was used to develop data on estimated conflicts, clearance communications and fuel usage for traffic mixes of 25, 50, 75 and 100% TNAV equipped. This study supports an overall effort by NASA to assess the benefits and required technology for using TNAV-equipped aircraft in the ERM environment.

Timing Comparisons for GLEs and High-energy Proton Events using GPS Proton Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernstein, V.; Winter, L. M.; Carver, M.; Morley, S.

2017-12-01

The newly released LANL GPS particle sensor data offers a unique snapshot of access of relativistic particles into the geomagnetic field. Currently, 23 of the 31 operational GPS satellites host energetic particle detectors which can detect the arrival of high-energy solar protons associated with Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs). We compare the timing profiles of solar energetic proton detections from GPS satellites as well as from ground-based Neutron Monitors and GOES spacecraft at geostationary orbit in order to understand how high-energy protons from the Sun enter the geomagnetic field and investigate potential differences in arrival time of energetic protons at GPS satellites as a function of location. Previous studies could only use one or two spacecraft at a similar altitude to track the arrival of energetic particles. With GPS data, we can now test whether the particles arrive isotropically, as assumed, or whether there exist differences in the timing and energetics viewed by each of the individual satellites. Extensions of this work could lead to improvements in space weather forecasting that predict more localized risk estimates for space-based technology.

Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.; ...

2016-04-01

Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on received measurements from sensors is an important research area that is attracting much research interest. In this paper, we present localization algorithms using time of arrivals (TOA) and time difference of arrivals (TDOA) to achieve high accuracy under line-of-sight conditions. The circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) location systems both use nonlinear equations that relate the locations of the sensors and tracked objects. These nonlinear equations can develop accuracy challenges because of the existence of measurement errors and efficiency challenges that lead to high computational burdens. Least squares-based andmore » maximum likelihood-based algorithms have become the most popular categories of location estimators. We also summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various positioning algorithms. By improving measurement techniques and localization algorithms, localization applications can be extended into the signal-processing-related domains of radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.« less

Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.

Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on received measurements from sensors is an important research area that is attracting much research interest. In this paper, we present localization algorithms using time of arrivals (TOA) and time difference of arrivals (TDOA) to achieve high accuracy under line-of-sight conditions. The circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) location systems both use nonlinear equations that relate the locations of the sensors and tracked objects. These nonlinear equations can develop accuracy challenges because of the existence of measurement errors and efficiency challenges that lead to high computational burdens. Least squares-based andmore » maximum likelihood-based algorithms have become the most popular categories of location estimators. We also summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various positioning algorithms. By improving measurement techniques and localization algorithms, localization applications can be extended into the signal-processing-related domains of radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.« less

Counting Parasites: Using Shrimp to Teach Students about Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunzburger, Lindsay; Curran, Mary Carla

2013-01-01

Estimation is an important skill that we rely on every day for simple tasks, such as providing food for a dinner party or arriving at an appointment on time. Despite its importance, most people have never been formally taught how to estimate. Estimation can also be a vital tool for scientific inquiry. We have created an activity designed to teach…

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Antony D.; Lee, Paul

2016-01-01

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular inefficiency that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based metering of internal departures, or TMA scheduling. Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot be easily fitted into the overhead stream. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. Depending on how the double delay is defined between 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent of arrivals at EWR experienced double delays in this period. However, this represents between 21 percent and 62 percent of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling. A deep dive into the data reveals that two causes of high internal departure scheduling delays are upstream flights making up time between their estimated departure clearance times (EDCTs) and entry into time based metering, which undermines the sequencing and spacing underlying the flight EDCTs, and high demand on TMA, when TMA airborne metering delays are high. Data mining methods (currently) including logistic regression, support vector machines and K-nearest neighbors are used to predict the occurrence of double delays and high internal departure scheduling delays with accuracies up to 0.68. So far, key indicators of double delay and high internal departure scheduling delay are TMA virtual runway queue size, and the degree to which estimated runway demand based on TMA estimated times of arrival has changed relative to the estimated runway demand based on EDCTs. However, more analysis is needed to confirm this.

Cuff-less blood pressure measurement using pulse arrival time and a Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Xianxiang; Fang, Zhen; Xue, Yongjiao; Zhan, Qingyuan; Yang, Ting; Xia, Shanhong

2017-02-01

The present study designs an algorithm to increase the accuracy of continuous blood pressure (BP) estimation. Pulse arrival time (PAT) has been widely used for continuous BP estimation. However, because of motion artifact and physiological activities, PAT-based methods are often troubled with low BP estimation accuracy. This paper used a signal quality modified Kalman filter to track blood pressure changes. A Kalman filter guarantees that BP estimation value is optimal in the sense of minimizing the mean square error. We propose a joint signal quality indice to adjust the measurement noise covariance, pushing the Kalman filter to weigh more heavily on measurements from cleaner data. Twenty 2 h physiological data segments selected from the MIMIC II database were used to evaluate the performance. Compared with straightforward use of the PAT-based linear regression model, the proposed model achieved higher measurement accuracy. Due to low computation complexity, the proposed algorithm can be easily transplanted into wearable sensor devices.

Do Arctic breeding geese track or overtake a green wave during spring migration?

PubMed

Si, Yali; Xin, Qinchuan; de Boer, Willem F; Gong, Peng; Ydenberg, Ronald C; Prins, Herbert H T

2015-03-04

Geese breeding in the Arctic have to do so in a short time-window while having sufficient body reserves. Hence, arrival time and body condition upon arrival largely influence breeding success. The green wave hypothesis posits that geese track a successively delayed spring flush of plant development on the way to their breeding sites. The green wave has been interpreted as representing either the onset of spring or the peak in nutrient biomass. However, geese tend to adopt a partial capital breeding strategy and might overtake the green wave to accomplish a timely arrival on the breeding site. To test the green wave hypothesis, we link the satellite-derived onset of spring and peak in nutrient biomass with the stopover schedule of individual Barnacle Geese. We find that geese track neither the onset of spring nor the peak in nutrient biomass. Rather, they arrive at the southernmost stopover site around the peak in nutrient biomass, and gradually overtake the green wave to match their arrival at the breeding site with the local onset of spring, thereby ensuring gosling benefit from the peak in nutrient biomass. Our approach for estimating plant development stages is critical in testing the migration strategies of migratory herbivores.

Buses of Cuernavaca—an agent-based model for universal random matrix behavior minimizing mutual information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warchoł, Piotr

2018-06-01

The public transportation system of Cuernavaca, Mexico, exhibits random matrix theory statistics. In particular, the fluctuation of times between the arrival of buses on a given bus stop, follows the Wigner surmise for the Gaussian unitary ensemble. To model this, we propose an agent-based approach in which each bus driver tries to optimize his arrival time to the next stop with respect to an estimated arrival time of his predecessor. We choose a particular form of the associated utility function and recover the appropriate distribution in numerical experiments for a certain value of the only parameter of the model. We then investigate whether this value of the parameter is otherwise distinguished within an information theoretic approach and give numerical evidence that indeed it is associated with a minimum of averaged pairwise mutual information.

Single Station System and Method of Locating Lightning Strikes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Medelius, Pedro J. (Inventor); Starr, Stanley O. (Inventor)

2003-01-01

An embodiment of the present invention uses a single detection system to approximate a location of lightning strikes. This system is triggered by a broadband RF detector and measures a time until the arrival of a leading edge of the thunder acoustic pulse. This time difference is used to determine a slant range R from the detector to the closest approach of the lightning. The azimuth and elevation are determined by an array of acoustic sensors. The leading edge of the thunder waveform is cross-correlated between the various acoustic sensors in the array to determine the difference in time of arrival, AT. A set of AT S is used to determine the direction of arrival, AZ and EL. The three estimated variables (R, AZ, EL) are used to locate a probable point of the lightning strike.

Analysis of delay reducing and fuel saving sequencing and spacing algorithms for arrival traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neuman, Frank; Erzberger, Heinz

1991-01-01

The air traffic control subsystem that performs sequencing and spacing is discussed. The function of the sequencing and spacing algorithms is to automatically plan the most efficient landing order and to assign optimally spaced landing times to all arrivals. Several algorithms are described and their statistical performance is examined. Sequencing brings order to an arrival sequence for aircraft. First-come-first-served sequencing (FCFS) establishes a fair order, based on estimated times of arrival, and determines proper separations. Because of the randomness of the arriving traffic, gaps will remain in the sequence of aircraft. Delays are reduced by time-advancing the leading aircraft of each group while still preserving the FCFS order. Tightly spaced groups of aircraft remain with a mix of heavy and large aircraft. Spacing requirements differ for different types of aircraft trailing each other. Traffic is reordered slightly to take advantage of this spacing criterion, thus shortening the groups and reducing average delays. For heavy traffic, delays for different traffic samples vary widely, even when the same set of statistical parameters is used to produce each sample. This report supersedes NASA TM-102795 on the same subject. It includes a new method of time-advance as well as an efficient method of sequencing and spacing for two dependent runways.

On-time reliability impacts of ATIS. Volume III, Implications for ATIS investment strategies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-05-01

The effect of ATIS accuracy and extent of ATIS roadway instrumentation on the on-time reliability benefits to routine users of ATIS are evaluated through the application of Heuristic On-line Web-linked Arrival Time Estimation (HOWLATE) methodology. T...

Simulation of the airwave caused by the Chelyabinsk superbolide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avramenko, Mikhail I.; Glazyrin, Igor V.; Ionov, Gennady V.; Karpeev, Artem V.

2014-06-01

Numerical simulations were carried out to model the propagation of an airwave from the fireball that passed over Chelyabinsk (Russia) on 15 February 2013. The airburst of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid occurred due to its catastrophic fragmentation in the atmosphere. Simulations of the space-time distribution of energy deposition during the airburst were done using a novel fragmentation model based on dimensionality considerations and analogy to the fission chain reaction in fissile materials. To get an estimate of the airburst energy, observed values of the airwave arrival times to different populated localities were retrieved from video records available on the Internet. The calculated arrival times agree well with the observed values for all the localities. Energy deposition in the atmosphere obtained from observations of the airwave arrival times was found to be 460 ± 60 kt in trinitrotoluene (TNT) equivalent. We also obtained an independent estimate for the deposited energy, 450-160+200 kt TNT from detecting the air increment velocity due to the wave passage in Chelyabinsk. Assuming that the energy of about 90 kt TNT was irradiated in the form of visible light and infrared radiation, as registered with optical sensors [Yeomans and Chodas, 2013], one can value the total energy release to be about 550 kt TNT which is in agreement with previous estimates from infrasound registration and from optical sensors data. The overpressure amplitude and its positive phase duration in the airwave that reached the city of Chelyabinsk were calculated to be about 2 kPa and 10 s accordingly.

Parametric adaptive filtering and data validation in the bar GW detector AURIGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortolan, A.; Baggio, L.; Cerdonio, M.; Prodi, G. A.; Vedovato, G.; Vitale, S.

2002-04-01

We report on our experience gained in the signal processing of the resonant GW detector AURIGA. Signal amplitude and arrival time are estimated by means of a matched-adaptive Wiener filter. The detector noise, entering in the filter set-up, is modelled as a parametric ARMA process; to account for slow non-stationarity of the noise, the ARMA parameters are estimated on an hourly basis. A requirement of the set-up of an unbiased Wiener filter is the separation of time spans with 'almost Gaussian' noise from non-Gaussian and/or strongly non-stationary time spans. The separation algorithm consists basically of a variance estimate with the Chauvenet convergence method and a threshold on the Curtosis index. The subsequent validation of data is strictly connected with the separation procedure: in fact, by injecting a large number of artificial GW signals into the 'almost Gaussian' part of the AURIGA data stream, we have demonstrated that the effective probability distributions of the signal-to-noise ratio χ2 and the time of arrival are those that are expected.

Real-time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.

2013-12-01

Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions due to uncertainties in determining CME input parameters. Ensemble modeling of CME propagation in the heliosphere is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. A distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameters are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest (satellites or planets), including a probability distribution of CME shock arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). Ensemble simulations have been performed experimentally in real-time at the CCMC since January 2013. We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 15 CME events, 10 of which were performed in real-time. The observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 5 out of the 12 ensemble runs containing hits. The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the twelve ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time an average absolute error of 8.20 hours was found for all twelve ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling setup was used to complete a parametric event case study of the sensitivity of the CME arrival time prediction to free parameters for ambient solar wind model and CME.

Estimating time-varying RSA to examine psychophysiological linkage of marital dyads.

PubMed

Gates, Kathleen M; Gatzke-Kopp, Lisa M; Sandsten, Maria; Blandon, Alysia Y

2015-08-01

One of the primary tenets of polyvagal theory dictates that parasympathetic influence on heart rate, often estimated by respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), shifts rapidly in response to changing environmental demands. The current standard analytic approach of aggregating RSA estimates across time to arrive at one value fails to capture this dynamic property within individuals. By utilizing recent methodological developments that enable precise RSA estimates at smaller time intervals, we demonstrate the utility of computing time-varying RSA for assessing psychophysiological linkage (or synchrony) in husband-wife dyads using time-locked data collected in a naturalistic setting. © 2015 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Peters, Jeff

2015-01-01

Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been based on single hazard zones, even though a coastal community may be threatened by multiple tsunami sources that vary locally in terms of inundation extents and wave arrival times. We use the Alaskan coastal communities of Cordova, Kodiak, Seward, Valdez, and Whittier (USA), as a case study to explore population vulnerability to multiple tsunami threats. We use anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to assess variations in population exposure as a function of travel time out of hazard zones associated with tectonic and landslide-related tsunamis (based on scenarios similar to the 1964 M w9.2 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster). Results demonstrate that there are thousands of residents, employees, and business customers in tsunami hazard zones associated with tectonically generated waves, but that at-risk individuals will likely have sufficient time to evacuate to high ground before waves are estimated to arrive 30–60 min after generation. Tsunami hazard zones associated with submarine landslides initiated by a subduction zone earthquake are smaller and contain fewer people, but many at-risk individuals may not have enough time to evacuate as waves are estimated to arrive in 1–2 min and evacuations may need to occur during earthquake ground shaking. For all hazard zones, employees and customers at businesses far outnumber residents at their homes and evacuation travel times are highest on docks and along waterfronts. Results suggest that population vulnerability studies related to tsunami hazards should recognize non-residential populations and differences in wave arrival times if emergency managers are to develop realistic preparedness and outreach efforts.

Estimation of contrast agent bolus arrival delays for improved reproducibility of liver DCE MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouhan, Manil D.; Bainbridge, Alan; Atkinson, David; Punwani, Shonit; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar P.; Lythgoe, Mark F.; Taylor, Stuart A.

2016-10-01

Delays between contrast agent (CA) arrival at the site of vascular input function (VIF) sampling and the tissue of interest affect dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI pharmacokinetic modelling. We investigate effects of altering VIF CA bolus arrival delays on liver DCE MRI perfusion parameters, propose an alternative approach to estimating delays and evaluate reproducibility. Thirteen healthy volunteers (28.7  ±  1.9 years, seven males) underwent liver DCE MRI using dual-input single compartment modelling, with reproducibility (n  =  9) measured at 7 days. Effects of VIF CA bolus arrival delays were assessed for arterial and portal venous input functions. Delays were pre-estimated using linear regression, with restricted free modelling around the pre-estimated delay. Perfusion parameters and 7 days reproducibility were compared using this method, freely modelled delays and no delays using one-way ANOVA. Reproducibility was assessed using Bland-Altman analysis of agreement. Maximum percent change relative to parameters obtained using zero delays, were  -31% for portal venous (PV) perfusion, +43% for total liver blood flow (TLBF), +3247% for hepatic arterial (HA) fraction, +150% for mean transit time and  -10% for distribution volume. Differences were demonstrated between the 3 methods for PV perfusion (p  =  0.0085) and HA fraction (p  <  0.0001), but not other parameters. Improved mean differences and Bland-Altman 95% Limits-of-Agreement for reproducibility of PV perfusion (9.3 ml/min/100 g, ±506.1 ml/min/100 g) and TLBF (43.8 ml/min/100 g, ±586.7 ml/min/100 g) were demonstrated using pre-estimated delays with constrained free modelling. CA bolus arrival delays cause profound differences in liver DCE MRI quantification. Pre-estimation of delays with constrained free modelling improved 7 days reproducibility of perfusion parameters in volunteers.

A Bayesian framework for infrasound location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modrak, Ryan T.; Arrowsmith, Stephen J.; Anderson, Dale N.

2010-04-01

We develop a framework for location of infrasound events using backazimuth and infrasonic arrival times from multiple arrays. Bayesian infrasonic source location (BISL) developed here estimates event location and associated credibility regions. BISL accounts for unknown source-to-array path or phase by formulating infrasonic group velocity as random. Differences between observed and predicted source-to-array traveltimes are partitioned into two additive Gaussian sources, measurement error and model error, the second of which accounts for the unknown influence of wind and temperature on path. By applying the technique to both synthetic tests and ground-truth events, we highlight the complementary nature of back azimuths and arrival times for estimating well-constrained event locations. BISL is an extension to methods developed earlier by Arrowsmith et al. that provided simple bounds on location using a grid-search technique.

Ground truth seismic events and location capability at Degelen mountain, Kazakhstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trabant, Chad; Thurber, Clifford; Leith, William

2002-07-01

We utilized nuclear explosions from the Degelen Mountain sub-region of the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS), Kazakhstan, to assess seismic location capability directly. Excellent ground truth information for these events was either known or was estimated from maps of the Degelen Mountain adit complex. Origin times were refined for events for which absolute origin time information was unknown using catalog arrival times, our ground truth location estimates, and a time baseline provided by fixing known origin times during a joint hypocenter determination (JHD). Precise arrival time picks were determined using a waveform cross-correlation process applied to the available digital data. These data were used in a JHD analysis. We found that very accurate locations were possible when high precision, waveform cross-correlation arrival times were combined with JHD. Relocation with our full digital data set resulted in a mean mislocation of 2 km and a mean 95% confidence ellipse (CE) area of 6.6 km 2 (90% CE: 5.1 km 2), however, only 5 of the 18 computed error ellipses actually covered the associated ground truth location estimate. To test a more realistic nuclear test monitoring scenario, we applied our JHD analysis to a set of seven events (one fixed) using data only from seismic stations within 40° epicentral distance. Relocation with these data resulted in a mean mislocation of 7.4 km, with four of the 95% error ellipses covering less than 570 km 2 (90% CE: 438 km 2), and the other two covering 1730 and 8869 km 2 (90% CE: 1331 and 6822 km 2). Location uncertainties calculated using JHD often underestimated the true error, but a circular region with a radius equal to the mislocation covered less than 1000 km 2 for all events having more than three observations.

Integrating SHM and Time Variant System Performance of Naval Ship Structures For Near Real Time Decision Making Under Uncertainty: A Comprehensive Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-06

direction and speed based on cost minimization and best estimated time of arrival (ETA). Sometimes, ships are forced to travel 43 Lehigh Technical...the allowable time to complete the travel . Another important aspect, addressed in the case study, is to investigate the optimal routing of aged...The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing

Passive imaging of hydrofractures in the South Belridge diatomite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ilderton, D.C.; Patzek, T.W.; Rector, J.W.

1996-03-01

The authors present the results of a seismic analysis of two hydrofractures spanning the entire diatomite column (1,110--1,910 ft or 338--582 m) in Shell`s Phase 2 steam drive pilot in South Belridge, California. These hydrofractures were induced at two depths (1,110--1,460 and 1,560--1,910 ft) and imaged passively using the seismic energy released during fracturing. The arrivals of shear waves from the cracking rock (microseismic events) were recorded at a 1 ms sampling rate by 56 geophones in three remote observation wells, resulting in 10 GB of raw data. These arrival times were then inverted for the event locations, from whichmore » the hydrofracture geometry was inferred. A five-dimensional conjugate-gradient algorithm with a depth-dependent, but otherwise constant shear wave velocity model (CVM) was developed for the inversions. To validate CVM, they created a layered shear wave velocity model of the formation and used it to calculate synthetic arrival times from known locations chosen at various depths along the estimated fracture plane. These arrival times were then inverted with CVM and the calculated locations compared with the known ones, quantifying the systematic error associated with the assumption of constant shear wave velocity. They also performed Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses on the synthetic arrival times to account for all other random errors that exist in field data. After determining the limitations of the inversion algorithm, they hand-picked the shear wave arrival times for both hydrofractures and inverted them with CVM.« less

Analysis of sequencing and scheduling methods for arrival traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neuman, Frank; Erzberger, Heinz

1990-01-01

The air traffic control subsystem that performs scheduling is discussed. The function of the scheduling algorithms is to plan automatically the most efficient landing order and to assign optimally spaced landing times to all arrivals. Several important scheduling algorithms are described and the statistical performance of the scheduling algorithms is examined. Scheduling brings order to an arrival sequence for aircraft. First-come-first-served scheduling (FCFS) establishes a fair order, based on estimated times of arrival, and determines proper separations. Because of the randomness of the traffic, gaps will remain in the scheduled sequence of aircraft. These gaps are filled, or partially filled, by time-advancing the leading aircraft after a gap while still preserving the FCFS order. Tightly scheduled groups of aircraft remain with a mix of heavy and large aircraft. Separation requirements differ for different types of aircraft trailing each other. Advantage is taken of this fact through mild reordering of the traffic, thus shortening the groups and reducing average delays. Actual delays for different samples with the same statistical parameters vary widely, especially for heavy traffic.

Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas; Mercer, Joey; Martin, Lynne; Bienert, Nancy; Cabrall, Christopher; Hunt, Sarah; Homola, Jeffrey; Kraut, Joshua

2013-01-01

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

Rapid magnitude estimation from time-dependent displacement amplitude measured with seismogeodetic instrumentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

2017-12-01

Earthquake magnitude is a concise metric that illuminates the destructive potential of a seismic event. Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is currently the main prerequisite for dissemination of a tsunami early warning, thus timely and automated calculation is of high importance. Seismic instrumentation experiences well-documented complications at long periods, making the accurate measurement of ground displacement in the near field unreliable. As a result, the relation between ground motion measured with seismic instrumentation and magnitude saturates, causing underestimation of the size of very large events. In the case of tsunamigenic earthquakes, magnitude underestimation in turn leads to a flawed tsunami inundation assessment, which limits the effectiveness of an early warning, in particular for local tsunamis. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instrumentation measures the displacement field directly, leading to more accurate magnitude estimates with near-field data. Unlike seismic-only instrumentation, near-field GNSS has been shown to provide an accurate magnitude estimate using the peak ground displacement (PGD) after just 2 minutes [Melgar et al., 2015]. However, GNSS alone is too noisy to detect the first seismic wave arrivals (P-waves), thus it cannot be as timely as a seismic system on its own. Using collocated seismic and geodetic instrumentation, we refine magnitude scaling relations by incorporating a large dataset of earthquakes in Japan. We demonstrate that consideration of the time-dependence of displacement amplitude with respect to P-wave arrival time reduces the time to convergence of the magnitude estimate. We present findings on the growth of events of large magnitude, and demonstrate time-dependent scaling relations that adapt to the amount of recorded data, starting with the P-wave arrival and continuing through PGD. We illustrate real-time, automated implementation of this method, and consider network improvements to advance rapid characterization of large events. Improvement of initial magnitude estimates through integration of geodetic and seismogeodetic observations is a top priority of an ongoing collaboration with NASA and NOAA's National and Pacific Tsunami Warning Centers (NOAA/NASA GNSS Tsunami Team).

Map synchronization in optical communication systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gagliardi, R. M.; Mohanty, N.

1973-01-01

The time synchronization problem in an optical communication system is approached as a problem of estimating the arrival time (delay variable) of a known transmitted field. Maximum aposteriori (MAP) estimation procedures are used to generate optimal estimators, with emphasis placed on their interpretation as a practical system device, Estimation variances are used to aid in the design of the transmitter signals for best synchronization. Extension is made to systems that perform separate acquisition and tracking operations during synchronization. The closely allied problem of maintaining timing during pulse position modulation is also considered. The results have obvious application to optical radar and ranging systems, as well as the time synchronization problem.

The evaluation of advanced traveler information services (ATIS) impacts on truck travel time reliability : using the simulated yoked study concept

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-03-01

The ability of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) to improve the on-time reliability of urban truck movements is evaluated through the application of the Heuristic On-Line Web- : Linked Arrival Time Estimation (HOWLATE) methodology. In HOWL...

Improved arrival-date estimates of Arctic-breeding Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doll, Andrew C.; Lanctot, Richard B.; Stricker, Craig A.; Yezerinac, Stephen M.; Wunder, Michael B.

2015-01-01

The use of stable isotopes in animal ecology depends on accurate descriptions of isotope dynamics within individuals. The prevailing assumption that laboratory-derived isotopic parameters apply to free-living animals is largely untested. We used stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) in whole blood from migratory Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola) to estimate an in situ turnover rate and individual diet-switch dates. Our in situ results indicated that turnover rates were higher in free-living birds, in comparison to the results of an experimental study on captive Dunlin and estimates derived from a theoretical allometric model. Diet-switch dates from all 3 methods were then used to estimate arrival dates to the Arctic; arrival dates calculated with the in situ turnover rate were later than those with the other turnover-rate estimates, substantially so in some cases. These later arrival dates matched dates when local snow conditions would have allowed Dunlin to settle, and agreed with anticipated arrival dates of Dunlin tracked with light-level geolocators. Our study presents a novel method for accurately estimating arrival dates for individuals of migratory species in which return dates are difficult to document. This may be particularly appropriate for species in which extrinsic tracking devices cannot easily be employed because of cost, body size, or behavioral constraints, and in habitats that do not allow individuals to be detected easily upon first arrival. Thus, this isotopic method offers an exciting alternative approach to better understand how species may be altering their arrival dates in response to changing climatic conditions.

Distance Estimation for Eclipsing X-Ray Pulsars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Robert E.; Paul, B.; Raichur, H.

2006-06-01

Recent interest in eclipsing binaries as distance indicators leads naturally into direct distance estimation for X-ray pulsars by combination of pulse arrival times, radial velocities, X-ray eclipse duration, and spectra. Optical light curves may help in some cases by measuring tides and irradiation, although dynamical tides in eccentric systems limit light curve usefulness. Pulse arrivals give an absolute scale and also orbit shape and orientation, which may be poorly known from radial velocities. For example, orbital eccentricity of 0.09 is known from Vela X1 pulse arrivals, although optical velocities are too noisy to measure eccentricity accurately. Combined pulse and optical velocity data give mass information. A lower limit to sin i from eclipse duration sets a lower limit to R2, and for the general eccentric case. A mass ratio sets lobe size and thus an upper limit to R2, so boxing R2 within a narrow range may be possible. T2 can be assessed from spectra so EB distance estimation can work if magnitude is known in one or more standard bands such as B or V. Realistic distance uncertainties are explored. In regard to new observations, Vela X-1 was observed by RXTE over about nine days in January 2005, including an eclipse of about 3.5 days. We extracted the light curves with time resolution 0.125 s. Spin period measurements by the Chi square criterion show Doppler variation with orbital phase and mean spin period 283.5 s. Pulse profiles of that period were averaged in sets of 10 at 138 phases. Cross correlation for the first 40 pulses show the expected Doppler arrival time variation. As the Vela X-1 pulse period is large compared to light travel time across the orbit, the pulses are already phase connected. Support is by U.S. National Science Foundation grant 0307561.

Estimating C-17 Aircrew Seasoning Given a Prediction of Flying Austerity

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

mission classification, operating organization, operating squadron, actual departure time (in Zulu ), actual arrival time (in Zulu ), and flight time in...zero. The horizontal axis is the time axis and is in Julian day units starting with January 1, 2013 and terminates at 2359 Zulu on June 30th 2013

Improved Location of Microseismic Events in Borehole Monitoring by Inclusion of Particle Motion Analysis: a Case Study at a CBM Field in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdhora Ry, Rexha; Septyana, T.; Widiyantoro, S.; Nugraha, A. D.; Ardjuna, A.

2017-04-01

Microseismic monitoring and constraining its hypocenters in and around hydrocarbon reservoirs provides insight into induced deformation related to hydraulic fracturing. In this study, we used data from a single vertical array of sensors in a borehole, providing measures of arrival times and polarizations. Microseismic events are located using 1-D velocity models and arrival times of P- and S-waves. However, in the case of all the sensors being deployed in a near-vertical borehole, there is a high ambiguity in the source location. Herein, we applied a procedure using azimuth of P-wave particle motion to constrain and improve the source location. We used a dataset acquired during 1-day of fracture stimulation at a CBM field in Indonesia. We applied five steps of location procedure to investigate microseismic events induced by these hydraulic fracturing activities. First, arrival times for 1584 candidate events were manually picked. Then we refined the arrival times using energy ratio method to obtain high consistency picking. Using these arrival times, we estimated back-azimuth using P-wave polarization analysis. We also added the combination of polarities analysis to remove 180° ambiguity. In the end, we determined hypocenter locations using grid-search method that guided in the back-azimuth trace area to minimize the misfit function of arrival times. We have successfully removed the ambiguity and produced a good solution for hypocenter locations as indicated statistically by small RMS. Most of the events clusters highlight coherent structures around the treatment well site and revealed faults. The same procedure can be applied to various other cases such as microseismic monitoring in the field of geothermal and shale gas/oil exploration, also CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) development.

Wavelet-based automatic determination of the P- and S-wave arrivals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogiatzis, P.; Ishii, M.

2013-12-01

The detection of P- and S-wave arrivals is important for a variety of seismological applications including earthquake detection and characterization, and seismic tomography problems such as imaging of hydrocarbon reservoirs. For many years, dedicated human-analysts manually selected the arrival times of P and S waves. However, with the rapid expansion of seismic instrumentation, automatic techniques that can process a large number of seismic traces are becoming essential in tomographic applications, and for earthquake early-warning systems. In this work, we present a pair of algorithms for efficient picking of P and S onset times. The algorithms are based on the continuous wavelet transform of the seismic waveform that allows examination of a signal in both time and frequency domains. Unlike Fourier transform, the basis functions are localized in time and frequency, therefore, wavelet decomposition is suitable for analysis of non-stationary signals. For detecting the P-wave arrival, the wavelet coefficients are calculated using the vertical component of the seismogram, and the onset time of the wave is identified. In the case of the S-wave arrival, we take advantage of the polarization of the shear waves, and cross-examine the wavelet coefficients from the two horizontal components. In addition to the onset times, the automatic picking program provides estimates of uncertainty, which are important for subsequent applications. The algorithms are tested with synthetic data that are generated to include sudden changes in amplitude, frequency, and phase. The performance of the wavelet approach is further evaluated using real data by comparing the automatic picks with manual picks. Our results suggest that the proposed algorithms provide robust measurements that are comparable to manual picks for both P- and S-wave arrivals.

Route Optimization for Offloading Congested Meter Fixes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Min; Zelinski, Shannon

2016-01-01

The Optimized Route Capability (ORC) concept proposed by the FAA facilitates traffic managers to identify and resolve arrival flight delays caused by bottlenecks formed at arrival meter fixes when there exists imbalance between arrival fixes and runways. ORC makes use of the prediction capability of existing automation tools, monitors the traffic delays based on these predictions, and searches the best reroutes upstream of the meter fixes based on the predictions and estimated arrival schedules when delays are over a predefined threshold. Initial implementation and evaluation of the ORC concept considered only reroutes available at the time arrival congestion was first predicted. This work extends previous work by introducing an additional dimension in reroute options such that ORC can find the best time to reroute and overcome the 'firstcome- first-reroute' phenomenon. To deal with the enlarged reroute solution space, a genetic algorithm was developed to solve this problem. Experiments were conducted using the same traffic scenario used in previous work, when an arrival rush was created for one of the four arrival meter fixes at George Bush Intercontinental Houston Airport. Results showed the new approach further improved delay savings. The suggested route changes from the new approach were on average 30 minutes later than those using other approaches, and fewer numbers of reroutes were required. Fewer numbers of reroutes reduce operational complexity and later reroutes help decision makers deal with uncertain situations.

Infrasound radiated by the Gerdec and Chelopechene explosions: propagation along unexpected paths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, David N.; Vergoz, Julien; Gibson, Robert; Le Pichon, Alexis; Ceranna, Lars

2011-05-01

Infrasound propagation paths through the atmosphere are controlled by the temporally and spatially varying sound speed and wind speed amplitudes. Because of the complexity of atmospheric acoustic propagation it is often difficult to reconcile observed infrasonic arrivals with the sound speed profiles predicted by meteorological specifications. This paper provides analyses of unexpected arrivals recorded in Europe and north Africa from two series of accidental munitions dump explosions, recorded at ranges greater than 1000 km: two explosions at Gerdec, Albania, on 2008 March 15 and four explosions at Chelopechene, Bulgaria, on 2008 July 3. The recorded signal characteristics include multiple pulsed arrivals, celerities between 0.24 and 0.34 km s-1 and some signal frequency content above 1 Hz. Often such characteristics are associated with waves that have propagated within a ground-to-stratosphere waveguide, although the observed celerities extend both above and below the conventional range for stratospheric arrivals. However, state-of-the-art meteorological specifications indicate that either weak, or no, ground-to-stratosphere waveguides are present along the source-to-receiver paths. By incorporating realistic gravity-wave induced horizontal velocity fluctuations into time-domain Parabolic Equation models the pulsed nature of the signals is simulated, and arrival times are predicted to within 30 s of the observed values (<1 per cent of the source-to-receiver transit time). Modelling amplitudes is highly dependent upon estimates of the unknown acoustic source strength (or equivalent chemical explosive yield). Current empirical explosive yield relationships, derived from infrasonic amplitude measurements from point-source chemical explosions, suggest that the equivalent chemical yield of the largest Gerdec explosion was of the order of 1 kt and the largest Chelopechene explosion was of the order of 100 t. When incorporating these assumed yields, the Parabolic Equation simulations predict peak signal amplitudes to within an order of magnitude of the observed values. As gravity wave velocity perturbations can significantly influence both infrasonic arrival times and signal amplitudes they need to be accounted for in source location and yield estimation routines, both of which are important for explosion monitoring, especially in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

Judging arrival times of incoming traffic vehicles is not a prerequisite for safely crossing an intersection: Differential effects of vehicle size and type in passive judgment and active driving tasks.

PubMed

Mathieu, Julie; Bootsma, Reinoud J; Berthelon, Catherine; Montagne, Gilles

2017-02-01

Using a fixed-base driving simulator we compared the effects of the size and type of traffic vehicles (i.e., normal-sized or double-sized cars or motorcycles) approaching an intersection in two different tasks. In the perceptual judgment task, passively moving participants estimated when a traffic vehicle would reach the intersection for actual arrival times (ATs) of 1, 2, or 3s. In line with earlier findings, ATs were generally underestimated, the more so the longer the actual AT. Results revealed that vehicle size affected judgments in particular for the larger actual ATs (2 and 3s), with double-sized vehicles then being judged as arriving earlier than normal-sized vehicles. Vehicle type, on the other hand, affected judgments at the smaller actual ATs (1 and 2s), with cars then being judged as arriving earlier than motorcycles. In the behavioral task participants actively drove the simulator to cross the intersection by passing through a gap in a train of traffic. Analyses of the speed variations observed during the active intersection-crossing task revealed that the size and type of vehicles in the traffic train did not affect driving behavior in the same way as in the AT judgment task. First, effects were considerably smaller, affecting driving behavior only marginally. Second, effects were opposite to expectations based on AT judgments: driver approach speeds were smaller (rather than larger) when confronted with double-sized vehicles as compared to their normal-sized counterparts and when confronted with cars as compared to motorcycles. Finally, the temporality of the effects was different on the two tasks: vehicle size affected driver approach speed in the final stages of approach rather than early on, while vehicle type affected driver approach speed early on rather than later. Overall, we conclude that the active control of approach to the intersection is not based on successive judgments of traffic vehicle arrival times. These results thereby question the general belief that arrival time estimates are crucial for safe interaction with traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of aircraft angular coordinates using a directional-microphone array--An experimental study.

PubMed

Genescà, Meritxell; Svensson, U Peter; Taraldsen, Gunnar

2015-04-01

Ground reflections cause problems when estimating the direction of arrival of aircraft noise. In traditional methods, based on the time differences between the microphones of a compact array, they may cause a significant loss of accuracy in the vertical direction. This study evaluates the use of first-order directional microphones, instead of omnidirectional, with the aim of reducing the amplitude of the reflected sound. Such a modification allows the problem to be treated as in free field conditions. Although further tests are needed for a complete evaluation of the method, the experimental results presented here show that under the particular conditions tested the vertical angle error is reduced ∼10° for both jet and propeller aircraft by selecting an appropriate directivity pattern. It is also shown that the final level of error depends on the vertical angle of arrival of the sound, and that the estimates of the horizontal angle of arrival are not influenced by the directivity pattern of the microphones nor by the reflective properties of the ground.

F-wave decomposition for time of arrival profile estimation.

PubMed

Han, Zhixiu; Kong, Xuan

2007-01-01

F-waves are distally recorded muscle responses that result from "backfiring" of motor neurons following stimulation of peripheral nerves. Each F-wave response is a superposition of several motor unit responses (F-wavelets). Initial deflection of the earliest F-wavelet defines the traditional F-wave latency (FWL) and earlier F-wavelet may mask F-wavelets traveling along slower (and possibly diseased) fibers. Unmasking the time of arrival (TOA) of late F-wavelets could improve the diagnostic value of the F-waves. An algorithm for F-wavelet decomposition is presented, followed by results of experimental data analysis.

Comparison of recent S-wave indicating methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubicka, Katarzyna; Sokolowski, Jakub

2018-01-01

Seismic event consists of surface waves and body waves. Due to the fact that the body waves are faster (P-waves) and more energetic (S-waves) in literature the problem of their analysis is taken more often. The most universal information that is received from the recorded wave is its moment of arrival. When this information is obtained from at least four seismometers in different locations, the epicentre of the particular event can be estimated [1]. Since the recorded body waves may overlap in signal, the problem of wave onset moment is considered more often for faster P-wave than S-wave. This however does not mean that the issue of S-wave arrival time is not taken at all. As the process of manual picking is time-consuming, methods of automatic detection are recommended (these however may be less accurate). In this paper four recently developed methods estimating S-wave arrival are compared: the method operating on empirical mode decomposition and Teager-Kaiser operator [2], the modification of STA/LTA algorithm [3], the method using a nearest neighbour-based approach [4] and the algorithm operating on characteristic of signals' second moments. The methods will be also compared to wellknown algorithm based on the autoregressive model [5]. The algorithms will be tested in terms of their S-wave arrival identification accuracy on real data originating from International Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) database.

Global Acceleration of Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat; Lara, Alejandro; Lepping, Ronald; Kaiser, Michael; Berdichevsky, Daniel; St. Cyr, O. Chris; Lazarus, Al

1999-01-01

Using the observed relation between speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) near the Sun and in the solar wind, we estimate a global acceleration acting on the CMEs. Our study quantifies the qualitative results of Gosling [1997] and numerical simulations that CMEs at 1 AU with speeds closer to the solar wind. We found a linear relation between the global acceleration and the initial speed of the CMEs and the absolute value of the acceleration is similar to the slow solar wind acceleration. Our study naturally divides CMEs into fast and slow ones, the dividing line being the solar wind speed. Our results have important implications to space weather prediction models which need to incorporate this effect in estimating the CME arrival time at 1 AU. We show that the arrival times of CMEs at 1 AU are drastically different from the zero acceleration case.

Bowhead whale localization using time-difference-of-arrival data from asynchronous recorders.

PubMed

Warner, Graham A; Dosso, Stan E; Hannay, David E

2017-03-01

This paper estimates bowhead whale locations and uncertainties using nonlinear Bayesian inversion of the time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA) of low-frequency whale calls recorded on onmi-directional asynchronous recorders in the shallow waters of the northeastern Chukchi Sea, Alaska. A Y-shaped cluster of seven autonomous ocean-bottom hydrophones, separated by 0.5-9.2 km, was deployed for several months over which time their clocks drifted out of synchronization. Hundreds of recorded whale calls are manually associated between recorders. The TDOA between hydrophone pairs are calculated from filtered waveform cross correlations and depend on the whale locations, hydrophone locations, relative recorder clock offsets, and effective waveguide sound speed. A nonlinear Bayesian inversion estimates all of these parameters and their uncertainties as well as data error statistics. The problem is highly nonlinear and a linearized inversion did not produce physically realistic results. Whale location uncertainties from nonlinear inversion can be low enough to allow accurate tracking of migrating whales that vocalize repeatedly over several minutes. Estimates of clock drift rates are obtained from inversions of TDOA data over two weeks and agree with corresponding estimates obtained from long-time averaged ambient noise cross correlations. The inversion is suitable for application to large data sets of manually or automatically detected whale calls.

Time difference of arrival estimation of microseismic signals based on alpha-stable distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Rui-Sheng; Gong, Yue; Peng, Yan-Jun; Sun, Hong-Mei; Zhang, Xing-Li; Lu, Xin-Ming

2018-05-01

Microseismic signals are generally considered to follow the Gauss distribution. A comparison of the dynamic characteristics of sample variance and the symmetry of microseismic signals with the signals which follow α-stable distribution reveals that the microseismic signals have obvious pulse characteristics and that the probability density curve of the microseismic signal is approximately symmetric. Thus, the hypothesis that microseismic signals follow the symmetric α-stable distribution is proposed. On the premise of this hypothesis, the characteristic exponent α of the microseismic signals is obtained by utilizing the fractional low-order statistics, and then a new method of time difference of arrival (TDOA) estimation of microseismic signals based on fractional low-order covariance (FLOC) is proposed. Upon applying this method to the TDOA estimation of Ricker wavelet simulation signals and real microseismic signals, experimental results show that the FLOC method, which is based on the assumption of the symmetric α-stable distribution, leads to enhanced spatial resolution of the TDOA estimation relative to the generalized cross correlation (GCC) method, which is based on the assumption of the Gaussian distribution.

A Direction of Arrival Estimation Algorithm Based on Orthogonal Matching Pursuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Junyao; Cao, Fei; Liu, Lipeng

2018-02-01

The results show that the modified DSM is able to predict local buckling capacity of hot-rolled RHS and SHS accurately. In order to solve the problem of the weak ability of anti-radiation missile against active decoy in modern electronic warfare, a direction of arrival estimation algorithm based on orthogonal matching pursuit is proposed in this paper. The algorithm adopts the compression sensing technology. This paper uses array antennas to receive signals, gets the sparse representation of signals, and then designs the corresponding perception matrix. The signal is reconstructed by orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm to estimate the optimal solution. At the same time, the error of the whole measurement system is analyzed and simulated, and the validity of this algorithm is verified. The algorithm greatly reduces the measurement time, the quantity of equipment and the total amount of the calculation, and accurately estimates the angle and strength of the incoming signal. This technology can effectively improve the angle resolution of the missile, which is of reference significance to the research of anti-active decoy.

Hydrogen Isotopes as a Sentinel of Biological Invasion by the Japanese Beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman)

PubMed Central

Ogle, Kiona; Caron, Melanie; Marks, Jane C.; Rogg, Helmuth W.

2016-01-01

Invasive species alter ecosystems, threaten native and endangered species, and have negative economic impacts. Knowing where invading individuals are from and when they arrive to a new site can guide management. Here, we evaluated how well the stable hydrogen isotope composition (δ2H) records the recent origin and time since arrival of specimens of the invasive Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica Newman) captured near the Portland International Airport (Oregon, U.S.A.). The δ2H of Japanese beetle specimens collected from sites across the contiguous U.S.A. reflected the δ2H of local precipitation, a relationship similar to that documented for other organisms, and one confirming the utility of δ2H as a geographic fingerprint. Within weeks after experimental relocation to a new isotopic environment, the δ2H of beetles changed linearly with time, demonstrating the potential for δ2H to also mark the timing of arrival to a new location. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the recent geographical origin and timing of arrival of each specimen based on its δ2H value. The geographic resolution was broad, with values consistent with multiple regions of origin in the eastern U.S.A., slightly favoring the southeastern U.S.A. as the more likely source. Beetles trapped from 2007–2010 had arrived 30 or more days prior to trapping, whereas the median time since arrival declined to 3–7 days for beetles trapped from 2012–2014. This reduction in the time between arrival and trapping at the Portland International Airport supports the efficacy of trapping and spraying to prevent establishment. More generally, our analysis shows how stable isotopes can serve as sentinels of biological invasions, verifying the efficacy of control measures, or, alternatively, indicating when those measures show signs of failure. PMID:26959686

Uncertainties associated with parameter estimation in atmospheric infrasound arrays.

PubMed

Szuberla, Curt A L; Olson, John V

2004-01-01

This study describes a method for determining the statistical confidence in estimates of direction-of-arrival and trace velocity stemming from signals present in atmospheric infrasound data. It is assumed that the signal source is far enough removed from the infrasound sensor array that a plane-wave approximation holds, and that multipath and multiple source effects are not present. Propagation path and medium inhomogeneities are assumed not to be known at the time of signal detection, but the ensemble of time delays of signal arrivals between array sensor pairs is estimable and corrupted by uncorrelated Gaussian noise. The method results in a set of practical uncertainties that lend themselves to a geometric interpretation. Although quite general, this method is intended for use by analysts interpreting data from atmospheric acoustic arrays, or those interested in designing and deploying them. The method is applied to infrasound arrays typical of those deployed as a part of the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization.

A Robust Real Time Direction-of-Arrival Estimation Method for Sequential Movement Events of Vehicles.

PubMed

Liu, Huawei; Li, Baoqing; Yuan, Xiaobing; Zhou, Qianwei; Huang, Jingchang

2018-03-27

Parameters estimation of sequential movement events of vehicles is facing the challenges of noise interferences and the demands of portable implementation. In this paper, we propose a robust direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation method for the sequential movement events of vehicles based on a small Micro-Electro-Mechanical System (MEMS) microphone array system. Inspired by the incoherent signal-subspace method (ISM), the method that is proposed in this work employs multiple sub-bands, which are selected from the wideband signals with high magnitude-squared coherence to track moving vehicles in the presence of wind noise. The field test results demonstrate that the proposed method has a better performance in emulating the DOA of a moving vehicle even in the case of severe wind interference than the narrowband multiple signal classification (MUSIC) method, the sub-band DOA estimation method, and the classical two-sided correlation transformation (TCT) method.

Estimating Angle-of-Arrival and Time-of-Flight for Multipath Components Using WiFi Channel State Information.

PubMed

Ahmed, Afaz Uddin; Arablouei, Reza; Hoog, Frank de; Kusy, Branislav; Jurdak, Raja; Bergmann, Neil

2018-05-29

Channel state information (CSI) collected during WiFi packet transmissions can be used for localization of commodity WiFi devices in indoor environments with multipath propagation. To this end, the angle of arrival (AoA) and time of flight (ToF) for all dominant multipath components need to be estimated. A two-dimensional (2D) version of the multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm has been shown to solve this problem using 2D grid search, which is computationally expensive and is therefore not suited for real-time localisation. In this paper, we propose using a modified matrix pencil (MMP) algorithm instead. Specifically, we show that the AoA and ToF estimates can be found independently of each other using the one-dimensional (1D) MMP algorithm and the results can be accurately paired to obtain the AoA⁻ToF pairs for all multipath components. Thus, the 2D estimation problem reduces to running 1D estimation multiple times, substantially reducing the computational complexity. We identify and resolve the problem of degenerate performance when two or more multipath components have the same AoA. In addition, we propose a packet aggregation model that uses the CSI data from multiple packets to improve the performance under noisy conditions. Simulation results show that our algorithm achieves two orders of magnitude reduction in the computational time over the 2D MUSIC algorithm while achieving similar accuracy. High accuracy and low computation complexity of our approach make it suitable for applications that require location estimation to run on resource-constrained embedded devices in real time.

Verification of Reproduction Simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami Using Time-Stamp Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honma, Motohiro; Ushiyama, Motoyuki

2014-05-01

In the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake tsunami, the significant damage and loss of lives were caused by large tsunami in the pacific coastal areas of the northern Japan. It is important to understand the situation of tsunami inundation in detail in order to establish the effective measures of disaster prevention. In this study, we calculated the detailed tsunami inundation simulation of Rikuzentakata city and verified the simulation results using not only the static observed data such as inundation area and tsunami height estimated by traces but also time stamp data which were recorded to digital camera etc. We calculated the tsunami simulation by non-linear long-wave theory using the staggered grid and leap flog scheme. We used Fujii and Satake (2011)'s model ver.4.2 as the tsunami source. The inundation model of Rikuzentakata city was constructed by fine ground level data of 10m mesh. In this simulation, the shore and river banks were set in boundary of calculation mesh. At that time, we have calculated two patterns of simulation, one condition is that a bank doesn't collapse even if tsunami overflows on it, another condition is that a bank collapses if tsunami overflows on it and its discharge exceeds the threshold. We can use the inundation area data, which was obtained by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI), and height data of tsunami trace, which were obtained by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Joint Survey (TTJS) group, as "static" verification data. Comparing the inundation area of simulation result with its observation by GSI, both areas are matched very well. And then, correlation coefficient between tsunami height data resulted from simulation and observed by TTJS is 0.756. In order to verify tsunami arrival time, we used the time stamp data which were recorded to digital camera etc. by citizens. Ushiyama and Yokomaku (2012) collected these tsunami stamp data and estimated the arrival time in Rikuzentakata city. We compared the arrival time resulted from tsunami simulation with estimated by Ushiyama and Yokomaku (2012) for some major points. The arrival time is earlier 2-4 minutes in the condition that a bank collapses when tsunami overflows and its discharge exceeds 0.05m2/s at each mesh boundary than in the condition that a bank doesn't collapse. And, on the whole the arrival time estimated from time stamp data is in accord with the result which were calculated in the condition that a bank collapse. We could verify reproducibility about not only the final tsunami inundation situation but also the temporal change of tsunami inundation situation by using the time stamp data. Acknowledgement In this study, we used tsunami trace data obtained by The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey (TTJS) Group. Reference 1) Fujii and Satake: Tsunami Source of the Off Tohoku-Pacific Earthquake on March 11, 2011, http://iisee.kenken.go.jp/staff/fujii/OffTohokuPacific2011/tsunami_ja_ver4.2and4.6.html, 2011. 2) Ushiyama and Yokomaku: Estimation of situation in Rikuzentakata city just before tsunami attack based on time stamp data, J.JSNDS31-1, pp.47-58, 2012.

The fruit and vegetable import pathway for potential invasive pest arrivals.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Erik; Olson, Lars J

2018-01-01

The expansion of international trade in commodities increases the risk of alien species invasions. Invaders are difficult to detect on introduction, so prevention remains the preferred strategy for managing the threat of invasions. Propagule pressure has been shown to be a good predictor of invasion risk. Most studies to date, however, link potential invasive species arrivals with indirect measures of propagule pressure such as aggregate trade volumes. This paper estimates propagule pressure using data that measure actual arrivals. Specifically, it uses inspection data that covers almost all U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from 2005-2014 to estimate a logit model of the probability of potential invasive species arrival and expected propagule frequencies for 2,240 commodity/country of origin combinations. Clear patterns in the geographic origin and commodity pathways for potential pests are identified. The average probability of arrival is low, approximately 0.03, but is two to ten times higher for some commodities, most notably herbs. We identify commodities with a high number of expected arrivals due to either a large volume of trade, high interception rates, or a combination of both. Seven of the top ten countries of origin for propagule frequency are from the Western Hemisphere and further trade liberalization within the Western Hemisphere is likely to heighten challenges to enforcement of US phytosanitary standards. Patterns in the data can help identify the commodities and countries of origin in greatest need of technical assistance and guide targeting of surveillance for the pathways of greatest phytosanitary concern.

Do presenting symptoms explain sex differences in emergency department delays among patients with acute stroke?

PubMed

Gargano, Julia Warner; Wehner, Susan; Reeves, Mathew J

2009-04-01

Previous studies report that women with stroke may experience longer delays in diagnostic workup than men after arriving at the emergency department. We hypothesized that presenting symptom differences could explain these delays. Data were collected on 1922 acute stroke cases who presented to 15 hospitals participating in a statewide stroke registry. We evaluated 2 in-hospital time intervals: emergency department arrival to physician examination ("door-to-doctor") and emergency department arrival to brain imaging ("door-to-image"). We used parametric survival models to estimate time ratios, which represent the ratio of average times comparing women to men, after adjusting for symptom presentation and other confounders. Women were significantly less likely than men to present with any stroke warning sign or suspected stroke (87.5% versus 91.4%) or to report trouble with walking, balance, or dizziness (9.5% versus 13.7%). Difficulty speaking and loss of consciousness were associated with shorter door-to-doctor times. Weakness, facial droop, difficulty speaking, and loss of consciousness were associated with shorter door-to-image times, whereas difficulty with walking/balance was associated with longer door-to-image times. In adjusted analyses, women had 11% longer door-to-doctor intervals (time ratio, 1.11; 95%, CI 1.02 to 1.22) and 15% longer door-to-image intervals (time ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.25) after accounting for presenting symptoms, age, and other confounders. Furthermore, these sex differences remained evident after restricting to patients who arrived within 6 or within 2 hours of symptom onset. Women with acute stroke experienced greater emergency department delays than men, which were not attributable to differences in presenting symptoms, time of arrival, age, or other confounders.

Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark–resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, James E.; Kendall, William L.; Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.; Andres, Brad A.; Buchanan, Joseph B.

2016-01-01

We present a novel formulation of a mark–recapture–resight model that allows estimation of population size, stopover duration, and arrival and departure schedules at migration areas. Estimation is based on encounter histories of uniquely marked individuals and relative counts of marked and unmarked animals. We use a Bayesian analysis of a state–space formulation of the Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, integrated with a binomial model for counts of unmarked animals, to derive estimates of population size and arrival and departure probabilities. We also provide a novel estimator for stopover duration that is derived from the latent state variable representing the interim between arrival and departure in the state–space model. We conduct a simulation study of field sampling protocols to understand the impact of superpopulation size, proportion marked, and number of animals sampled on bias and precision of estimates. Simulation results indicate that relative bias of estimates of the proportion of the population with marks was low for all sampling scenarios and never exceeded 2%. Our approach does not require enumeration of all unmarked animals detected or direct knowledge of the number of marked animals in the population at the time of the study. This provides flexibility and potential application in a variety of sampling situations (e.g., migratory birds, breeding seabirds, sea turtles, fish, pinnipeds, etc.). Application of the methods is demonstrated with data from a study of migratory sandpipers.

On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil.

PubMed

Massad, E; Burattini, M Nascimento; Khan, K; Struchiner, C J; Coutinho, F A B; Wilder-Smith, A

2017-08-01

The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.

Marrying after arriving: The role of individuals' networks for immigrant choice of partner's origin.

PubMed

del Rey Poveda, Alberto; Vono de Vilhena, Daniela

2014-03-01

This paper analyses the impact of social networks on the transition to marriage among recently arrived, single, immigrants in Spain. Our hypothesis states that the existence of individual networks at the moment of arrival strongly influences partner selection. Using the 2007 Spanish National Immigration Survey we apply competing risk models to estimate the likelihood of endogamous or exogamous marriage, for men and women separately. The analysis shows that among immigrant men and women, the presence of relatives or friends from their home-country at the time of arrival increases the probability of marriage to a co-national. Correspondingly, immigrants who obtained Spanish citizenship before migrating present higher chances of intermarriage, as they are likely to have more contact with the host society. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Operational warning of interplanetary shock arrivals using energetic particle data from ACE: Real-time Upstream Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donegan, M.; Vandegriff, J.; Ho, G. C.; Julia, S. J.

2004-12-01

We report on an operational system which provides advance warning and predictions of arrival times at Earth of interplanetary (IP) shocks that originate at the Sun. The data stream used in our prediction algorithm is real-time and comes from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Since locally accelerated energetic storm particle (ESP) events accompany most IP shocks, their arrival can be predicted using ESP event signatures. We have previously reported on the development and implementation of an algorithm which recognizes the upstream particle signature of approaching IP shocks and provides estimated countdown predictions. A web-based system (see (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/index.html) combines this prediction capability with real-time ACE/EPAM data provided by the NOAA Space Environment Center. The most recent ACE data is continually processed and predictions of shock arrival time are updated every five minutes when an event is impending. An operational display is provided to indicate advisories and countdowns for the event. Running the algorithm on a test set of historical events, we obtain a median error of about 10 hours for predictions made 24-36 hours before actual shock arrival and about 6 hours when the shock is 6-12 hours away. This system can provide critical information to mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists by providing significant lead-time for approaching events. Recently, we have made improvements to the triggering mechanism as well as re-training the neural network, and here we report prediction results from the latest system.

The Importance of Behavioral Thresholds and Objective Functions in Contaminant Transport Uncertainty Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sykes, J. F.; Kang, M.; Thomson, N. R.

2007-12-01

The TCE release from The Lockformer Company in Lisle Illinois resulted in a plume in a confined aquifer that is more than 4 km long and impacted more than 300 residential wells. Many of the wells are on the fringe of the plume and have concentrations that did not exceed 5 ppb. The settlement for the Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection of Lockformer involved the establishment of a trust fund that compensates individuals with cancers with payments being based on cancer type, estimated TCE concentration in the well and the duration of exposure to TCE. The estimation of early arrival times and hence low likelihood events is critical in the determination of the eligibility of an individual for compensation. Thus, an emphasis must be placed on the accuracy of the leading tail region in the likelihood distribution of possible arrival times at a well. The estimation of TCE arrival time, using a three-dimensional analytical solution, involved parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis. Parameters in the model included TCE source parameters, groundwater velocities, dispersivities and the TCE decay coefficient for both the confining layer and the bedrock aquifer. Numerous objective functions, which include the well-known L2-estimator, robust estimators (L1-estimators and M-estimators), penalty functions, and dead zones, were incorporated in the parameter estimation process to treat insufficiencies in both the model and observational data due to errors, biases, and limitations. The concept of equifinality was adopted and multiple maximum likelihood parameter sets were accepted if pre-defined physical criteria were met. The criteria ensured that a valid solution predicted TCE concentrations for all TCE impacted areas. Monte Carlo samples are found to be inadequate for uncertainty analysis of this case study due to its inability to find parameter sets that meet the predefined physical criteria. Successful results are achieved using a Dynamically-Dimensioned Search sampling methodology that inherently accounts for parameter correlations and does not require assumptions regarding parameter distributions. For uncertainty analysis, multiple parameter sets were obtained using a modified Cauchy's M-estimator. Penalty functions had to be incorporated into the objective function definitions to generate a sufficient number of acceptable parameter sets. The combined effect of optimization and the application of the physical criteria perform the function of behavioral thresholds by reducing anomalies and by removing parameter sets with high objective function values. The factors that are important to the creation of an uncertainty envelope for TCE arrival at wells are outlined in the work. In general, greater uncertainty appears to be present at the tails of the distribution. For a refinement of the uncertainty envelopes, the application of additional physical criteria or behavioral thresholds is recommended.

Real-time Upstream Monitoring System: Using ACE Data to Predict the Arrival of Interplanetary Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donegan, M. M.; Wagstaff, K. L.; Ho, G. C.; Vandegriff, J.

2003-12-01

We have developed an algorithm to predict Earth arrival times for interplanetary (IP) shock events originating at the Sun. Our predictions are generated from real-time data collected by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. The high intensities of energetic ions that occur prior to and during an IP shock pose a radiation hazard to astronauts as well as to electronics in Earth orbit. The potential to predict such events is based on characteristic signatures in the Energetic Storm Particle (ESP) event ion intensities which are often associated with IP shocks. We have previously reported on the development and implementation of an algorithm to forecast the arrival of ESP events. Historical ion data from ACE/EPAM was used to train an artificial neural network which uses the signature of an approaching event to predict the time remaining until the shock arrives. Tests on the trained network have been encouraging, with an average error of 9.4 hours for predictions made 24 hours in advance, and an reduced average error of 4.9 hours when the shock is 12 hours away. The prediction engine has been integrated into a web-based system that uses real-time ACE/EPAM data provided by the NOAA Space Environment Center (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/ index.html.) This system continually processes the latest ACE data, reports whether or not there is an impending shock, and predicts the time remaining until the shock arrival. Our predictions are updated every five minutes and provide significant lead-time, thereby supplying critical information that can be used by mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists. We have continued to refine the prediction capabilities of this system; in addition to forecasting arrival times for shocks, we now provide confidence estimates for those predictions.

The effectiveness of the 55 MPH national maximum speed limit as a life saving benefit

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-10-01

The report contains an analysis of the life saving benefits resulting from the 55 mph NMSL from 1974-1979. Monthly fatality data from 1970-1979 was used in a time series model to arrive at the estimated safety benefits (lives saved). The time series ...

Real-time forecasting of ICME shock arrivals at L1 during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch: 28 March  21 April 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, W.; Dryer, M.; Fry, C. D.; Deehr, C. S.; Smith, Z.; Akasofu, S.-I.; Kartalev, M. D.; Grigorov, K. G.

2002-07-01

The Sun was extremely active during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch of 2001. We chose this period between a solar flare on 28 March 2001 to a final shock arrival at Earth on 21 April 2001. The activity consisted of two presumed helmet-streamer blowouts, seven M-class flares, and nine X-class flares, the last of which was behind the west limb. We have been experimenting since February 1997 with real-time, end-to-end forecasting of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) shock arrival times. Since August 1998, these forecasts have been distributed in real-time by e-mail to a list of interested scientists and operational USAF and NOAA forecasters. They are made using three different solar wind models. We describe here the solar events observed during the April Fool’s 2001 epoch, along with the predicted and actual shock arrival times, and the ex post facto correction to the real-time coronal shock speed observations. It appears that the initial estimates of coronal shock speeds from Type II radio burst observations and coronal mass ejections were too high by as much as 30%. We conclude that a 3-dimensional coronal density model should be developed for application to observations of solar flares and their Type II radio burst observations.

A taxonomy of three species of negative velocity arrivals in the lithospheric mantle beneath the United States using Sp receiver functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, K.; Dueker, K.; McClenahan, J.; Hansen, S. M.; Schmandt, B.

2012-12-01

The Transportable Array, with significant supplement from past PASSCAL experiments, provides an unprecedented opportunity for a holistic view over the geologically and tectonically diverse continent. New images from 34,000 Sp Receiver Functions image lithospheric and upper mantle structure that has not previously been well constrained, significant to our understanding of upper mantle processes and continental evolution. The negative velocity gradient (NVG) found beneath the Moho has been elusive and is often loosely termed the "Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary" (LAB).This label is used by some researchers to indicate a rheological boundary, a thermal gradient, an anisotropic velocity contrast, or a compositional boundary, and much confusion has arisen around what observed NVG arrivals manifest. Deconvolution across up to 400 stations simultaneously has enhanced the source wavelet estimation and allowed for more accurate receiver functions. In addition, Sdp converted phases are precursory to the direct S phase arrival, eliminating the issue of contamination from reverberated phases that add noise to Ps receiver functions in this lower-lithospheric and upper mantle depth range. We present taxonomy of the NVG arrivals beneath the Moho across the span of the Transportable Array (125° - 85° W). The NVG is classified into three different categories, primarily distinguished by the estimated temperature at the depth of the arrival. The first species of Sp NVG arrivals is found to be in the region west of the Precambrian rift hinge line, at a depth range of 70 - 90 km, corresponding to a temperature of >1150° C. This temperature and depth is predicted to be supersolidus for a 0.02% weight H2O Peridotite (Katz et al., 2004), supporting the theory that these arrivals are due to a melt-staging area (MSA), which could be correlated with the base of the thermal lithosphere. The current depth estimate of the cratonic US thermal LAB ranges from 150-220 km (Yuan and Romanowitz, 2010), and yet a pervasive arrival in our Sp and Ps images shows a NVG ranging from 80 - 110 km depth, with temperature estimates of ~800° C. Clearly internal to the lithosphere, this signal cannot be a LAB arrival. Hence, our second species of NVG is a Mid-Lithospheric Discontinuity (MLD) that we interpret as a layer of sub-solidus metasomatic minerals that have solidus in the 1000-1100°C range near three Gpa. These low solidus minerals are amphibole, phlogophite, and carbon-bearing phases. A freezing front (solidus) near three Gpa freezing front would concentrate these low velocity minerals to make a metasomatic layer over Ga time-scales to explain our NVG MLD arrivals. A third species of NVG, in the "warm" category of 950-1150° C, exists beneath the intermountain west region of Laramide shortening that extends from Montana to New Mexico. This region has experienced abundant post-Eocene alkaline magmatism. Mantle xenoliths from this region provide temperature at depth measurements which are in agreement with our surface wave velocity based temperature estimates. Thus, this NVG arrival is interpreted as a near to super-solidus metasomatic layer. Noteworthy is that a deeper arrival (150-190 km) is intermittently observed which would be more relative to the base of the thermal lithosphere.

Artifacts in Digital Coincidence Timing

PubMed Central

Moses, W. W.; Peng, Q.

2014-01-01

Digital methods are becoming increasingly popular for measuring time differences, and are the de facto standard in PET cameras. These methods usually include a master system clock and a (digital) arrival time estimate for each detector that is obtained by comparing the detector output signal to some reference portion of this clock (such as the rising edge). Time differences between detector signals are then obtained by subtracting the digitized estimates from a detector pair. A number of different methods can be used to generate the digitized arrival time of the detector output, such as sending a discriminator output into a time to digital converter (TDC) or digitizing the waveform and applying a more sophisticated algorithm to extract a timing estimator. All measurement methods are subject to error, and one generally wants to minimize these errors and so optimize the timing resolution. A common method for optimizing timing methods is to measure the coincidence timing resolution between two timing signals whose time difference should be constant (such as detecting gammas from positron annihilation) and selecting the method that minimizes the width of the distribution (i.e., the timing resolution). Unfortunately, a common form of error (a nonlinear transfer function) leads to artifacts that artificially narrow this resolution, which can lead to erroneous selection of the “optimal” method. The purpose of this note is to demonstrate the origin of this artifact and suggest that caution should be used when optimizing time digitization systems solely on timing resolution minimization. PMID:25321885

Artifacts in digital coincidence timing

DOE PAGES

Moses, W. W.; Peng, Q.

2014-10-16

Digital methods are becoming increasingly popular for measuring time differences, and are the de facto standard in PET cameras. These methods usually include a master system clock and a (digital) arrival time estimate for each detector that is obtained by comparing the detector output signal to some reference portion of this clock (such as the rising edge). Time differences between detector signals are then obtained by subtracting the digitized estimates from a detector pair. A number of different methods can be used to generate the digitized arrival time of the detector output, such as sending a discriminator output into amore » time to digital converter (TDC) or digitizing the waveform and applying a more sophisticated algorithm to extract a timing estimator.All measurement methods are subject to error, and one generally wants to minimize these errors and so optimize the timing resolution. A common method for optimizing timing methods is to measure the coincidence timing resolution between two timing signals whose time difference should be constant (such as detecting gammas from positron annihilation) and selecting the method that minimizes the width of the distribution (i.e. the timing resolution). Unfortunately, a common form of error (a nonlinear transfer function) leads to artifacts that artificially narrow this resolution, which can lead to erroneous selection of the 'optimal' method. In conclusion, the purpose of this note is to demonstrate the origin of this artifact and suggest that caution should be used when optimizing time digitization systems solely on timing resolution minimization.« less

Artifacts in digital coincidence timing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moses, W. W.; Peng, Q.

Digital methods are becoming increasingly popular for measuring time differences, and are the de facto standard in PET cameras. These methods usually include a master system clock and a (digital) arrival time estimate for each detector that is obtained by comparing the detector output signal to some reference portion of this clock (such as the rising edge). Time differences between detector signals are then obtained by subtracting the digitized estimates from a detector pair. A number of different methods can be used to generate the digitized arrival time of the detector output, such as sending a discriminator output into amore » time to digital converter (TDC) or digitizing the waveform and applying a more sophisticated algorithm to extract a timing estimator.All measurement methods are subject to error, and one generally wants to minimize these errors and so optimize the timing resolution. A common method for optimizing timing methods is to measure the coincidence timing resolution between two timing signals whose time difference should be constant (such as detecting gammas from positron annihilation) and selecting the method that minimizes the width of the distribution (i.e. the timing resolution). Unfortunately, a common form of error (a nonlinear transfer function) leads to artifacts that artificially narrow this resolution, which can lead to erroneous selection of the 'optimal' method. In conclusion, the purpose of this note is to demonstrate the origin of this artifact and suggest that caution should be used when optimizing time digitization systems solely on timing resolution minimization.« less

Estimator banks: a new tool for direction-of-arrival estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gershman, Alex B.; Boehme, Johann F.

1997-10-01

A new powerful tool for improving the threshold performance of direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation is considered. The essence of our approach is to reduce the number of outliers in the threshold domain using the so-called estimator bank containing multiple 'parallel' underlying DOA estimators which are based on pseudorandom resampling of the MUSIC spatial spectrum for given data batch or sample covariance matrix. To improve the threshold performance relative to conventional MUSIC, evolutionary principles are used, i.e., only 'successful' underlying estimators (having no failure in the preliminary estimated source localization sectors) are exploited in the final estimate. An efficient beamspace root implementation of the estimator bank approach is developed, combined with the array interpolation technique which enables the application to arbitrary arrays. A higher-order extension of our approach is also presented, where the cumulant-based MUSIC estimator is exploited as a basic technique for spatial spectrum resampling. Simulations and experimental data processing show that our algorithm performs well below the MUSIC threshold, namely, has the threshold performance similar to that of the stochastic ML method. At the same time, the computational cost of our algorithm is much lower than that of stochastic ML because no multidimensional optimization is involved.

Auto-detection of Halo CME Parameters as the Initial Condition of Solar Wind Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Kyu-Cheol; Park, Mi-Young; Kim, Jae-Hun

2017-12-01

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.

Turboprop and rotary-wing aircraft flight parameter estimation using both narrow-band and broadband passive acoustic signal-processing methods.

PubMed

Ferguson, B G; Lo, K W

2000-10-01

Flight parameter estimation methods for an airborne acoustic source can be divided into two categories, depending on whether the narrow-band lines or the broadband component of the received signal spectrum is processed to estimate the flight parameters. This paper provides a common framework for the formulation and test of two flight parameter estimation methods: one narrow band, the other broadband. The performances of the two methods are evaluated by applying them to the same acoustic data set, which is recorded by a planar array of passive acoustic sensors during multiple transits of a turboprop fixed-wing aircraft and two types of rotary-wing aircraft. The narrow-band method, which is based on a kinematic model that assumes the source travels in a straight line at constant speed and altitude, requires time-frequency analysis of the acoustic signal received by a single sensor during each aircraft transit. The broadband method is based on the same kinematic model, but requires observing the temporal variation of the differential time of arrival of the acoustic signal at each pair of sensors that comprises the planar array. Generalized cross correlation of each pair of sensor outputs using a cross-spectral phase transform prefilter provides instantaneous estimates of the differential times of arrival of the signal as the acoustic wavefront traverses the array.

Ground truth seismic events and location capability at Degelen mountain, Kazakhstan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trabant, C.; Thurber, C.; Leith, W.

2002-01-01

We utilized nuclear explosions from the Degelen Mountain sub-region of the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS), Kazakhstan, to assess seismic location capability directly. Excellent ground truth information for these events was either known or was estimated from maps of the Degelen Mountain adit complex. Origin times were refined for events for which absolute origin time information was unknown using catalog arrival times, our ground truth location estimates, and a time baseline provided by fixing known origin times during a joint hypocenter determination (JHD). Precise arrival time picks were determined using a waveform cross-correlation process applied to the available digital data. These data were used in a JHD analysis. We found that very accurate locations were possible when high precision, waveform cross-correlation arrival times were combined with JHD. Relocation with our full digital data set resulted in a mean mislocation of 2 km and a mean 95% confidence ellipse (CE) area of 6.6 km2 (90% CE: 5.1 km2), however, only 5 of the 18 computed error ellipses actually covered the associated ground truth location estimate. To test a more realistic nuclear test monitoring scenario, we applied our JHD analysis to a set of seven events (one fixed) using data only from seismic stations within 40?? epicentral distance. Relocation with these data resulted in a mean mislocation of 7.4 km, with four of the 95% error ellipses covering less than 570 km2 (90% CE: 438 km2), and the other two covering 1730 and 8869 km2 (90% CE: 1331 and 6822 km2). Location uncertainties calculated using JHD often underestimated the true error, but a circular region with a radius equal to the mislocation covered less than 1000 km2 for all events having more than three observations. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The fruit and vegetable import pathway for potential invasive pest arrivals

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The expansion of international trade in commodities increases the risk of alien species invasions. Invaders are difficult to detect on introduction, so prevention remains the preferred strategy for managing the threat of invasions. Propagule pressure has been shown to be a good predictor of invasion risk. Most studies to date, however, link potential invasive species arrivals with indirect measures of propagule pressure such as aggregate trade volumes. This paper estimates propagule pressure using data that measure actual arrivals. Specifically, it uses inspection data that covers almost all U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from 2005–2014 to estimate a logit model of the probability of potential invasive species arrival and expected propagule frequencies for 2,240 commodity/country of origin combinations. Clear patterns in the geographic origin and commodity pathways for potential pests are identified. The average probability of arrival is low, approximately 0.03, but is two to ten times higher for some commodities, most notably herbs. We identify commodities with a high number of expected arrivals due to either a large volume of trade, high interception rates, or a combination of both. Seven of the top ten countries of origin for propagule frequency are from the Western Hemisphere and further trade liberalization within the Western Hemisphere is likely to heighten challenges to enforcement of US phytosanitary standards. Patterns in the data can help identify the commodities and countries of origin in greatest need of technical assistance and guide targeting of surveillance for the pathways of greatest phytosanitary concern. PMID:29451910

Bowhead whale localization using asynchronous hydrophones in the Chukchi Sea.

PubMed

Warner, Graham A; Dosso, Stan E; Hannay, David E; Dettmer, Jan

2016-07-01

This paper estimates bowhead whale locations and uncertainties using non-linear Bayesian inversion of their modally-dispersed calls recorded on asynchronous recorders in the Chukchi Sea, Alaska. Bowhead calls were recorded on a cluster of 7 asynchronous ocean-bottom hydrophones that were separated by 0.5-9.2 km. A warping time-frequency analysis is used to extract relative mode arrival times as a function of frequency for nine frequency-modulated whale calls that dispersed in the shallow water environment. Each call was recorded on multiple hydrophones and the mode arrival times are inverted for: the whale location in the horizontal plane, source instantaneous frequency (IF), water sound-speed profile, seabed geoacoustic parameters, relative recorder clock drifts, and residual error standard deviations, all with estimated uncertainties. A simulation study shows that accurate prior environmental knowledge is not required for accurate localization as long as the inversion treats the environment as unknown. Joint inversion of multiple recorded calls is shown to substantially reduce uncertainties in location, source IF, and relative clock drift. Whale location uncertainties are estimated to be 30-160 m and relative clock drift uncertainties are 3-26 ms.

Migration ecology and stopover population size of Red Knots Calidris canutus rufa at Mingan Archipelago after exiting the breeding grounds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, James E.; Baker, Allan J.; González, Patricia M.; Aubry, Yves; Buidin, Christophe; Rochepault, Yann

2018-01-01

Populations of migratory birds present unique conservation challenges given the often vast distances separating critical resources throughout the annual cycle. Migration areas close to the breeding grounds represent a link between two key stages of the annual cycle, and understanding migration ecology as birds exit the breeding grounds may be particularly informative for successful conservation. We studied migration phenology and stopover ecology of an endangered subspecies of the Red Knot Calidris canutus rufa at a migration area relatively close to its breeding range. Using mark-recapture/resight data and a Jolly-Seber model for open populations, we described the arrival and departure schedules, stopover duration, and passage population size at the Mingan Archipelago, Quebec, Canada. Red Knots arrived at the study area in two distinct waves of birds separated by approximately 22 days. Nearly 30% of the passage population arrived in the first wave of arrivals during 15–18 July, and approximately 22% arrived in a second wave during 8–11 August. The sex-ratio in the stopover population at the time of the first wave was slightly skewed toward females, whereas the second wave was heavily skewed toward males. Because males remain on the breeding grounds to care for young, this may reflect successfulbreeding in the year of our study. The estimated stopover duration (population mean) was 11 days (95% credible interval: 10.3–11.7 days), but stopover persistence was variable throughout the season. We estimated a passage population size of 9,450 birds (8,355–10,710), a minimum estimate for reasons related to the duration of our sampling. Mingan Archipelago is thus an important migration area for this endangered subspecies and could be a priority in conservation planning. Our results also emphasize the advantages of mark-recapture/resight approaches for estimating migration phenology and stopover persistence.

HIGH-FIDELITY RADIO ASTRONOMICAL POLARIMETRY USING A MILLISECOND PULSAR AS A POLARIZED REFERENCE SOURCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Straten, W., E-mail: vanstraten.willem@gmail.com

2013-01-15

A new method of polarimetric calibration is presented in which the instrumental response is derived from regular observations of PSR J0437-4715 based on the assumption that the mean polarized emission from this millisecond pulsar remains constant over time. The technique is applicable to any experiment in which high-fidelity polarimetry is required over long timescales; it is demonstrated by calibrating 7.2 years of high-precision timing observations of PSR J1022+1001 made at the Parkes Observatory. Application of the new technique followed by arrival time estimation using matrix template matching yields post-fit residuals with an uncertainty-weighted standard deviation of 880 ns, two timesmore » smaller than that of arrival time residuals obtained via conventional methods of calibration and arrival time estimation. The precision achieved by this experiment yields the first significant measurements of the secular variation of the projected semimajor axis, the precession of periastron, and the Shapiro delay; it also places PSR J1022+1001 among the 10 best pulsars regularly observed as part of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA) project. It is shown that the timing accuracy of a large fraction of the pulsars in the PPTA is currently limited by the systematic timing error due to instrumental polarization artifacts. More importantly, long-term variations of systematic error are correlated between different pulsars, which adversely affects the primary objectives of any pulsar timing array experiment. These limitations may be overcome by adopting the techniques presented in this work, which relax the demand for instrumental polarization purity and thereby have the potential to reduce the development cost of next-generation telescopes such as the Square Kilometre Array.« less

78 FR 13370 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Consideration of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-27

... may be submitted to: DHS, USCIS, Office of Policy and Strategy, Chief, Regulatory Coordination... estimates on the burden in terms of time and money incurred by applicants for the following aspects of this... service. The average time required and money expended to secure secondary evidence such as an affidavit...

Signal restoration through deconvolution applied to deep mantle seismic probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefan, W.; Garnero, E.; Renaut, R. A.

2006-12-01

We present a method of signal restoration to improve the signal-to-noise ratio, sharpen seismic arrival onset, and act as an empirical source deconvolution of specific seismic arrivals. Observed time-series gi are modelled as a convolution of a simpler time-series fi, and an invariant point spread function (PSF) h that attempts to account for the earthquake source process. The method is used on the shear wave time window containing SKS and S, whereby using a Gaussian PSF produces more impulsive, narrower, signals in the wave train. The resulting restored time-series facilitates more accurate and objective relative traveltime estimation of the individual seismic arrivals. We demonstrate the accuracy of the reconstruction method on synthetic seismograms generated by the reflectivity method. Clean and sharp reconstructions are obtained with real data, even for signals with relatively high noise content. Reconstructed signals are simpler, more impulsive, and narrower, which allows highlighting of some details of arrivals that are not readily apparent in raw waveforms. In particular, phases nearly coincident in time can be separately identified after processing. This is demonstrated for two seismic wave pairs used to probe deep mantle and core-mantle boundary structure: (1) the Sab and Scd arrivals, which travel above and within, respectively, a 200-300-km-thick, higher than average shear wave velocity layer at the base of the mantle, observable in the 88-92 deg epicentral distance range and (2) SKS and SPdiff KS, which are core waves with the latter having short arcs of P-wave diffraction, and are nearly identical in timing near 108-110 deg in distance. A Java/Matlab algorithm was developed for the signal restoration, which can be downloaded from the authors web page, along with example data and synthetic seismograms.

Adaptive AOA-aided TOA self-positioning for mobile wireless sensor networks.

PubMed

Wen, Chih-Yu; Chan, Fu-Kai

2010-01-01

Location-awareness is crucial and becoming increasingly important to many applications in wireless sensor networks. This paper presents a network-based positioning system and outlines recent work in which we have developed an efficient principled approach to localize a mobile sensor using time of arrival (TOA) and angle of arrival (AOA) information employing multiple seeds in the line-of-sight scenario. By receiving the periodic broadcasts from the seeds, the mobile target sensors can obtain adequate observations and localize themselves automatically. The proposed positioning scheme performs location estimation in three phases: (I) AOA-aided TOA measurement, (II) Geometrical positioning with particle filter, and (III) Adaptive fuzzy control. Based on the distance measurements and the initial position estimate, adaptive fuzzy control scheme is applied to solve the localization adjustment problem. The simulations show that the proposed approach provides adaptive flexibility and robust improvement in position estimation.

Stability of recursive out-of-sequence measurement filters: an open problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lingji; Moshtagh, Nima; Mehra, Raman K.

2011-06-01

In many applications where communication delays are present, measurements with earlier time stamps can arrive out-of-sequence, i.e., after state estimates have been obtained for the current time instant. To incorporate such an Out-Of-Sequence Measurement (OOSM), many algorithms have been proposed in the literature to obtain or approximate the optimal estimate that would have been obtained if the OOSM had arrived in-sequence. When OOSM occurs repeatedly, approximate estimations as a result of incorporating one OOSM have to serve as the basis for incorporating yet another OOSM. The question of whether the "approximation of approximation" is well behaved, i.e., whether approximation errors accumulate in a recursive setting, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. This paper draws attention to the stability question of recursive OOSM processing filters, formulates the problem in a specific setting, and presents some simulation results that suggest that such filters are indeed well-behaved. Our hope is that more research will be conducted in the future to rigorously establish stability properties of these filters.

Real-time Upstream Monitoring System (RUMS): Forecasting arrival times of interplanetary shocks using energetic particle data from ACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, G.; Donegan, M.; Vandegriff, J.; Wagstaff, K.

We have created a system for predicting the arrival times at Earth of interplanetary (IP) shocks that originate at the Sun. This system is currently available on the web (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/index.html) and runs in real-time. Input data to our prediction algorithm is energetic particle data from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Real-time EPAM data is obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center (SEC). Our algorithm operates in two stages. First it watches for a velocity dispersion signature (energetic ions show flux enhancement followed by subsequent enhancements in lower energies), which is commonly seen upstream of a large IP shock. Once a precursor signature has been detected, a pattern recognition algorithm is used to analyze the time series profile of the particle data and generate an estimate for the shock arrival time. Tests on the algorithm show an average error of roughly 9 hours for predictions made 24 hours before the shock arrival and roughly 5 hours when the shock is 12 hours away. This can provide significant lead-time and deliver critical information to mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists. As of February 4, 2004, the ACE real-time stream has been switched to include data from another detector on EPAM. We are now processing the new real-time data stream and have made improvements to our algorithm based on this data. In this paper, we report prediction results from the updated algorithm.

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude from the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noda, Shunta; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Ellsworth, William L.

2016-01-01

We propose a simple approach to measure earthquake magnitude M using the time difference (Top) between the body‐wave onset and the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude in an accelerogram. Measured in this manner, we find that Mw is proportional to 2logTop for earthquakes 5≤Mw≤7, which is the theoretical proportionality if Top is proportional to source dimension and stress drop is scale invariant. Using high‐frequency (>2  Hz) data, the root mean square (rms) residual between Mw and MTop(M estimated from Top) is approximately 0.5 magnitude units. The rms residuals of the high‐frequency data in passbands between 2 and 16 Hz are uniformly smaller than those obtained from the lower‐frequency data. Top depends weakly on epicentral distance, and this dependence can be ignored for distances <200  km. Retrospective application of this algorithm to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake produces a final magnitude estimate of M 9.0 at 120 s after the origin time. We conclude that Top of high‐frequency (>2  Hz) accelerograms has value in the context of earthquake early warning for extremely large events.

Estimating the impact of newly arrived foreign-born persons on tuberculosis in the United States.

PubMed

Liu, Yecai; Painter, John A; Posey, Drew L; Cain, Kevin P; Weinberg, Michelle S; Maloney, Susan A; Ortega, Luis S; Cetron, Martin S

2012-01-01

Among approximately 163.5 million foreign-born persons admitted to the United States annually, only 500,000 immigrants and refugees are required to undergo overseas tuberculosis (TB) screening. It is unclear what extent of the unscreened nonimmigrant visitors contributes to the burden of foreign-born TB in the United States. We defined foreign-born persons within 1 year after arrival in the United States as "newly arrived", and utilized data from U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and World Health Organization to estimate the incidence of TB among newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. During 2001 through 2008, 11,500 TB incident cases, including 291 multidrug-resistant TB incident cases, were estimated to occur among 20,989,738 person-years for the 1,479,542,654 newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. Of the 11,500 estimated TB incident cases, 41.6% (4,783) occurred among immigrants and refugees, 36.6% (4,211) among students/exchange visitors and temporary workers, 13.8% (1,589) among tourists and business travelers, and 7.3% (834) among Canadian and Mexican nonimmigrant visitors without an I-94 form (e.g., arrival-departure record). The top 3 newly arrived foreign-born populations with the largest estimated TB incident cases per 100,000 admissions were immigrants and refugees from high-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of ≥100 cases/100,000 population/year; 235.8 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% confidence interval [CI], 228.3 to 243.3), students/exchange visitors and temporary workers from high-incidence countries (60.9 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 58.5 to 63.3), and immigrants and refugees from medium-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of 15-99 cases/100,000 population/year; 55.2 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 51.6 to 58.8). Newly arrived nonimmigrant visitors contribute substantially to the burden of foreign-born TB in the United States. To achieve the goals of TB elimination, direct investment in global TB control and strategies to target nonimmigrant visitors should be considered.

Evaluation of economic and performance outcomes associated with the number of treatments after an initial diagnosis of bovine respiratory disease in commercial feeder cattle.

PubMed

Cernicchiaro, Natalia; White, Brad J; Renter, David G; Babcock, Abram H

2013-02-01

To evaluate associations between economic and performance outcomes with the number of treatments after an initial diagnosis of bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in commercial feedlot cattle. 212,867 cattle arriving in a Midwestern feedlot between 2001 and 2006. An economic model was created to estimate net returns. Generalized linear mixed models were used to determine associations between the frequency of BRD treatments and other demographic variables with economic and performance outcomes. Net returns decreased with increasing number of treatments for BRD. However, the magnitude depended on the season during which cattle arrived at the feedlot, with significantly higher returns for cattle arriving during fall and summer than for cattle arriving during winter and spring. For fall arrivals, there were higher mean net returns for cattle that were never treated ($39.41) than for cattle treated once ($29.49), twice ($16.56), or ≥ 3 times (-$33.00). For summer arrivals, there were higher least squares mean net returns for cattle that were never treated ($31.83) than for cattle treated once ($20.22), twice ($6.37), or ≥ 3 times ($-42.56). Carcass traits pertaining to weight and quality grade were deemed responsible for differences in net returns among cattle receiving different numbers of treatments after an initial diagnosis of BRD. Differences in economic net returns and performance outcomes for feedlot cattle were determined on the basis of number of treatments after an initial diagnosis of BRD; the analysis accounted for the season of arrival, sex, and weight class.

Comparing performance of multinomial logistic regression and discriminant analysis for monitoring access to care for acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Hossain, Monir; Wright, Steven; Petersen, Laura A

2002-04-01

One way to monitor patient access to emergent health care services is to use patient characteristics to predict arrival time at the hospital after onset of symptoms. This predicted arrival time can then be compared with actual arrival time to allow monitoring of access to services. Predicted arrival time could also be used to estimate potential effects of changes in health care service availability, such as closure of an emergency department or an acute care hospital. Our goal was to determine the best statistical method for prediction of arrival intervals for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) symptoms. We compared the performance of multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and discriminant analysis (DA) models. Models for MLR and DA were developed using a dataset of 3,566 male veterans hospitalized with AMI in 81 VA Medical Centers in 1994-1995 throughout the United States. The dataset was randomly divided into a training set (n = 1,846) and a test set (n = 1,720). Arrival times were grouped into three intervals on the basis of treatment considerations: <6 hours, 6-12 hours, and >12 hours. One model for MLR and two models for DA were developed using the training dataset. One DA model had equal prior probabilities, and one DA model had proportional prior probabilities. Predictive performance of the models was compared using the test (n = 1,720) dataset. Using the test dataset, the proportions of patients in the three arrival time groups were 60.9% for <6 hours, 10.3% for 6-12 hours, and 28.8% for >12 hours after symptom onset. Whereas the overall predictive performance by MLR and DA with proportional priors was higher, the DA models with equal priors performed much better in the smaller groups. Correct classifications were 62.6% by MLR, 62.4% by DA using proportional prior probabilities, and 48.1% using equal prior probabilities of the groups. The misclassifications by MLR for the three groups were 9.5%, 100.0%, 74.2% for each time interval, respectively. Misclassifications by DA models were 9.8%, 100.0%, and 74.4% for the model with proportional priors and 47.6%, 79.5%, and 51.0% for the model with equal priors. The choice of MLR or DA with proportional priors, or DA with equal priors for monitoring time intervals of predicted hospital arrival time for a population should depend on the consequences of misclassification errors.

Relaxing the closure assumption in single-season occupancy models: staggered arrival and departure times

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, William L.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2013-01-01

Occupancy statistical models that account for imperfect detection have proved very useful in several areas of ecology, including species distribution and spatial dynamics, disease ecology, and ecological responses to climate change. These models are based on the collection of multiple samples at each of a number of sites within a given season, during which it is assumed the species is either absent or present and available for detection while each sample is taken. However, for some species, individuals are only present or available for detection seasonally. We present a statistical model that relaxes the closure assumption within a season by permitting staggered entry and exit times for the species of interest at each site. Based on simulation, our open model eliminates bias in occupancy estimators and in some cases increases precision. The power to detect the violation of closure is high if detection probability is reasonably high. In addition to providing more robust estimation of occupancy, this model permits comparison of phenology across sites, species, or years, by modeling variation in arrival or departure probabilities. In a comparison of four species of amphibians in Maryland we found that two toad species arrived at breeding sites later in the season than a salamander and frog species, and departed from sites earlier.

Access block in NSW hospitals, 1999-2001: does the definition matter?

PubMed

Forero, Roberto; Mohsin, Mohammed; Bauman, Adrian E; Ieraci, Sue; Young, Lis; Phung, Hai N; Hillman, Kenneth M; McCarthy, Sally M; Hugelmeyer, C David

2004-01-19

To estimate the magnitude of access block and its trend over time in New South Wales hospitals, using different definitions of access block, and to explore its association with clinical and non-clinical factors. An epidemiological study using the Emergency Department Information System datasets (1 January 1999 to 31 December 2001) from a sample of 55 NSW hospitals. Prevalence of access block measured by four different definitions; strength of association between access block, type of hospital, year of presentation, mode and time of arrival, triage category (an indicator of urgency), age and sex. Rates of access block (for all four definitions) increased between 1999 and 2001 by 1%-2% per year. There were increases across all regions of NSW, but urban regions in particular. Patients presenting to Principal Referral hospitals and those who arrived at night were more likely to experience access block. After adjusting for triage category and year of presentation, the mode of arrival, time of arrival, type of hospital, age and sex were significantly associated with access block. Access block continues to increase across NSW, whatever the definition used. We recommend that hospitals in NSW and Australia move to the use of one standard definition of access block, as our study suggests there is no significant additional information emerging from the use of multiple definitions.

Real Time System for Practical Acoustic Monitoring of Global Ocean Temperature. Volume 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-06-30

signal processing software to the SSAR. This software performs Doppler correction , circulating sums, matched filtering and pulse compression, estimation...Doppler correction , circulating sums, matched filtering and pulse compression, estimation of multipath arrival angle, and peak- picking. At the... geometrica , sound speed, and focuing region sAles to the acoustic wavelengths Our work on this problem is based on an oceanographic application. To

Short Text Messages (SMS) as an Additional Tool for Notifying Medical Staff in Case of a Hospital Mass Casualty Incident.

PubMed

Timler, Dariusz; Bogusiak, Katarzyna; Kasielska-Trojan, Anna; Neskoromna-Jędrzejczak, Aneta; Gałązkowski, Robert; Szarpak, Łukasz

2016-02-01

The aim of the study was to verify the effectiveness of short text messages (short message service, or SMS) as an additional notification tool in case of fire or a mass casualty incident in a hospital. A total of 2242 SMS text messages were sent to 59 hospital workers divided into 3 groups (n=21, n=19, n=19). Messages were sent from a Samsung GT-S8500 Wave cell phone and Orange Poland was chosen as the telecommunication provider. During a 3-month trial period, messages were sent between 3:35 PM and midnight with no regular pattern. Employees were asked to respond by telling how much time it would take them to reach the hospital in case of a mass casualty incident. The mean reaction time (SMS reply) was 36.41 minutes. The mean declared time of arrival to the hospital was 100.5 minutes. After excluding 10% of extreme values for declared arrival time, the mean arrival time was estimated as 38.35 minutes. Short text messages (SMS) can be considered an additional tool for notifying medical staff in case of a mass casualty incident.

Comparative study of predicted and experimentally detected interplanetary shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartalev, M. D.; Grigorov, K. G.; Smith, Z.; Dryer, M.; Fry, C. D.; Sun, Wei; Deehr, C. S.

2002-03-01

We compare the real time space weather prediction shock arrival times at 1 AU made by the USAF/NOAA Shock Time of Arrival (STOA) and Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM) models, and the Exploration Physics International/University of Alaska Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Solar Wind Model (HAF-v2) to a real time analysis analysis of plasma and field ACE data. The comparison is made using an algorithm that was developed on the basis of wavelet data analysis and MHD identification procedure. The shock parameters are estimated for selected "candidate events". An appropriate automatically performing Web-based interface periodically utilizes solar wind observations made by the ACE at L1. Near real time results as well an archive of the registered interesting events are available on a specially developed web site. A number of events are considered. These studies are essential for the validation of real time space weather forecasts made from solar data.

Use of Source-Region-Station Time Corrections at NTS for Depth Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-07-15

Pahute Mesa events. 4 Tracings of P or PKP arrivals from NTS at RKON, 19 BUL, PRE. 5 Core-phase travel times, from Qamar (1973). 21 6...19-36. Qamar , 1973. Revised velocities in the earth’s core. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. vol. 63, no. 3, p. 1073-1106. Richter, C F., 1958. Elementary

Theoretical considerations in measurement of time discrepancies between input and myocardial time-signal intensity curves in estimates of regional myocardial perfusion with first-pass contrast-enhanced MRI.

PubMed

Natsume, Takahiro; Ishida, Masaki; Kitagawa, Kakuya; Nagata, Motonori; Sakuma, Hajime; Ichihara, Takashi

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a method to determine time discrepancies between input and myocardial time-signal intensity (TSI) curves for accurate estimation of myocardial perfusion with first-pass contrast-enhanced MRI. Estimation of myocardial perfusion with contrast-enhanced MRI using kinetic models requires faithful recording of contrast content in the blood and myocardium. Typically, the arterial input function (AIF) is obtained by setting a region of interest in the left ventricular cavity. However, there is a small delay between the AIF and the myocardial curves, and such time discrepancies can lead to errors in flow estimation using Patlak plot analysis. In this study, the time discrepancies between the arterial TSI curve and the myocardial tissue TSI curve were estimated based on the compartment model. In the early phase after the arrival of the contrast agent in the myocardium, the relationship between rate constant K1 and the concentrations of Gd-DTPA contrast agent in the myocardium and arterial blood (LV blood) can be described by the equation K1={dCmyo(tpeak)/dt}/Ca(tpeak), where Cmyo(t) and Ca(t) are the relative concentrations of Gd-DTPA contrast agent in the myocardium and in the LV blood, respectively, and tpeak is the time corresponding to the peak of Ca(t). In the ideal case, the time corresponding to the maximum upslope of Cmyo(t), tmax, is equal to tpeak. In practice, however, there is a small difference in the arrival times of the contrast agent into the LV and into the myocardium. This difference was estimated to correspond to the difference between tpeak and tmax. The magnitudes of such time discrepancies and the effectiveness of the correction for these time discrepancies were measured in 18 subjects who underwent myocardial perfusion MRI under rest and stress conditions. The effects of the time discrepancies could be corrected effectively in the myocardial perfusion estimates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prehospital thrombolysis in acute myocardial infarction: the Belgian eminase prehospital study (BEPS). BEPS Collaborative Group.

PubMed

1991-09-01

Interest in early thrombolysis has prompted a study on the feasibility and time course of prehospital thrombolysis in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in six centres in Belgium. Patients with clinically suspected AMI and with typical ECG changes presenting within 4 h after onset of pain were treated with 30 units of Anisoylated Plasminogen Streptokinase Activator Complex (APSAC, eminase) intravenously by a mobile intensive care unit (MICU). Sixty-two patients were included in the study and an AMI was confirmed in 60. The mean time (+/- 1 SD) from onset of pain to injection of APSAC was 95 +/- 47 min and the mean estimated time gain, calculated as the time difference between the arrival of the MICU at home and the arrival of the MICU at the emergency department, was 50 +/- 17 min. In the prehospital period four patients developed ventricular fibrillation and one cardiogenic shock. During hospital stay severe complications were observed in four patients. Two events were fatal, one diffuse haemorrhage and one septal rupture; two events were non fatal, one feasible and that an estimated time gain of 50 min can be obtained. Potential risks and benefits remain to be demonstrated in a large controlled clinical trial.

Determination of trajectories of fireballs using seismic network data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishihara, Y.

2006-12-01

Fireballs, Bolides, which are caused by high velocity passages of meteoroids through the atmosphere, generate shockwaves. Meteor shockwave provide us very important information (arrival time and amplitude) to study meteor physics. The shockwave arrival time data enable us to determine trajectories of the fireballs. On the other hand, the shockwave amplitude tells us size and ablation history of the meteoroid. Infrasound observation is one of the ways of detecting bolide shockwaves. However, we have no infrasound observational networks extends for large area with enough spatial distribution for determination of trajectories and estimate ablation histories. We have only a few infrasound arrays that have three or four elements, in the Japanese islands. Last decade, digital seismic networks are greatly improved for the purpose of monitoring micro earthquakes. Those seismic networks are quite sensitive for detecting micro ground vibration, and then those networks could detect not only seismic wave generated by earthquakes, but also ground oscillations generated by coupling of meteor shockwave with the ground near station. Last years, I analyses this kind of ground motion data recorded by seismic network, as meteor shockwave signals. For example, we estimate some great fireball's aerial path from arrival times of shockwaves (e.g., Ishihara et. al., 2003 Earth Planets, and Space, 2004 Geophysical Research. Letters.; Pujol et al., 2006 Planetary and Space Science), and we estimate sizes and ablation history of some great fireball and a meteorite fall (Ishihara et al., 2004 Meteoroids2004). In Japan, some great fireball falls occurred during 2004 to 2005. In this presentation, I show the trajectories of these fireballs determined from shockwave analysis. Some fireballs trajectories are also determined from photographic records. The trajectories determined from shockwave and that from photos show good agreement.

First LOCSMITH locations of deep moonquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hempel, S.; Knapmeyer, M.; Sens-Schönfelder, C.; Oberst, J.

2008-09-01

Introduction Several thousand seismic events were recorded by the Apollo seismic network from 19691977. Different types of events can be distinguished: meteoroid impacts, thermal quakes and internally caused moonquakes. The latter subdivide into shallow (100 to 300km) and deep moonquakes (700 to 1100km), which are by far the most common events. The deep quakes would be no immediate danger to inhabitated stations on the Earth's Moon because of their relatively low magnitude and great depth. However, they bear important information on lunar structure and evolution, and their distribution probably reflects their source mechanism. In this study, we reinvestigate location patterns of deep lunar quakes. LOCSMITH The core of this study is a new location method (LOCSMITH, [1]). This algorithm uses time intervals rather than time instants as input, which contain the dedicated arrival with probability 1. LOCSMITH models and compares theoretical and actual travel times on a global scale and uses an adaptive grid to search source locations compatible with all observations. The output is a set of all possible hypocenters for the considered region of repeating, tidally triggered moonquake activity, called clusters. The shape and size of these sets gives a better estimate of the location uncertainty than the formal standard deviations returned by classical methods. This is used for grading of deep moonquake clusters according to the currently available data quality. Classification of deep moonquakes As first step, we establish a reciprocal dependence of size and shape of LOCSMITH location clouds on number of arrivals. Four different shapes are recognized, listed here in an order corresponding to decreasing spatial resolution: 1. "Balls", which are well defined and relatively small types of sets resembling the commonly assumed error ellipsoid. These are found in the best cases with many observations. Locations in this shape are obtained for clusters 1, 18 or 33, these were already well located by earlier works [2,3]. 2. The next best shape of a location set is the "banana" as found for clusters 5, 39 or 53 [Fig. 1]. In this case, only limited depth resolution is available, and the solution spreads over a large volume. The size of a "banana" could be minimized by either finding a not yet discovered shear wave arrival or estimating a S arrival time interval by considering the coda instead of a clear S arrival. 3. Shape of clouds we call "cones" are formed by clusters for which no compressional wave arrivals, but three S arrivals were picked. Such solutions were found for clusters 35, 201 or 218 [Fig. 2]. A depth limitation is given only by the surface of the Moon's far side. In previous works, locations of these clusters were usually determined with a fixed depth, thus neglecting all depth uncertainty [2]. 4. The fourth and worst class shows a "disc"like shape with no depth resolution and almost no latitude resolution. Clusters of this class, like 4, 23 or 43, were not located so far. From class 1 ("ball") to 4 ("disc") the amount of possible hypocenters increases. So we also found a correlation between size and shape of volumes containing possible hypocenter solutions. Aim We classified all clusters according to the solution set scheme by using arrival times of [2] with an estimated error of ±10s as input for LOCSMITH. We reprocess selected clusters of each class to come up with the special requirements and possibilities of this new location method. As said above, one of the requirements of LOCSMITH is the definition of a time interval instead of a time instant for input, and an interesting option is using an estimated S arrival time interval derived from coda and scattering model, lacking a clear S arrival. We try to find fully automated methods for each processing step, dependent on the quality of data. Methods For despiking we merged methods by [4] and [5] and achieve very good results even for worst case as already presented in [6]. Prior to stacking we developed a complex multiparameter correlation algorithm to calculate the optimum time shift. Results We present relocations of selected deep moonquakes in context of data availability and quality. Previous locations are often contained in our location clouds, but realistic location uncertainties allow large deviations from the best fitting solutions, including locations on the far side of the Moon. Perspective By developing new methods for data processing and using the LOCSMITH locating algorithm we hope to reduce the location uncertainty sufficiently to make sure that all sources are on the near side, or to prove a far side origin of some of them. This would answer questions of hemispheric symmetry of lunar deep seismicity and the Moon's internal structure. References [1] Knapmeyer (2008) accepted to GJI. [2] Nakamura (2005) JGR, 110, E01001. [3] Lognonné (2003) EPSL, 211, 2744. [4] Bulow (2005) JGR, 110, E10003. [5] Sonnemann (2005) EGU05A07960. [6] Hempel, Knapmeyer, Oberst (2008) EGU2008A07989.

GIS Based System for Post-Earthquake Crisis Managment Using Cellular Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raeesi, M.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.

2013-09-01

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the destroyed areas. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days. Time reduction for surviving people is very important. A Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used for decreasing response time and management in critical situations. Position estimation in short period of time time is important. This paper proposes a GIS based system for post-earthquake disaster management solution. This system relies on several mobile positioning methods such as cell-ID and TA method, signal strength method, angel of arrival method, time of arrival method and time difference of arrival method. For quick positioning, the system can be helped by any person who has a mobile device. After positioning and specifying the critical points, the points are sent to a central site for managing the procedure of quick response for helping. This solution establishes a quick way to manage the post-earthquake crisis.

Estimating permeability from quasi-static deformation: Temporal variations and arrival time inversion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D.W.; Ferretti, Alessandro; Novali, Fabrizio

2008-05-01

Transient pressure variations within a reservoir can be treated as a propagating front and analyzed using an asymptotic formulation. From this perspective one can define a pressure 'arrival time' and formulate solutions along trajectories, in the manner of ray theory. We combine this methodology and a technique for mapping overburden deformation into reservoir volume change as a means to estimate reservoir flow properties, such as permeability. Given the entire 'travel time' or phase field, obtained from the deformation data, we can construct the trajectories directly, there-by linearizing the inverse problem. A numerical study indicates that, using this approach, we canmore » infer large-scale variations in flow properties. In an application to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) observations associated with a CO{sub 2} injection at the Krechba field, Algeria, we image pressure propagation to the northwest. An inversion for flow properties indicates a linear trend of high permeability. The high permeability correlates with a northwest trending fault on the flank of the anticline which defines the field.« less

The Dynamic Planner: The Sequencer, Scheduler, and Runway Allocator for Air Traffic Control Automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Gregory L.; Denery, Dallas (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Dynamic Planner (DP) has been designed, implemented, and integrated into the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) to assist Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs), in real time, with the task of planning and scheduling arrival traffic approximately 35 to 200 nautical miles from the destination airport. The TMC may input to the DP a series of current and future scheduling constraints that reflect the operation and environmental conditions of the airspace. Under these constraints, the DP uses flight plans, track updates, and Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) predictions to calculate optimal runway assignments and arrival schedules that help ensure an orderly, efficient, and conflict-free flow of traffic into the terminal area. These runway assignments and schedules can be shown directly to controllers or they can be used by other CTAS tools to generate advisories to the controllers. Additionally, the TMC and controllers may override the decisions made by the DP for tactical considerations. The DP will adapt to computations to accommodate these manual inputs.

Meteorological modeling of arrival and deposition of fallout at intermediate distances downwind of the Nevada Test Site.

PubMed

Cederwall, R T; Peterson, K R

1990-11-01

A three-dimensional atmospheric transport and diffusion model is used to calculate the arrival and deposition of fallout from 13 selected nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) in the 1950s. Results are used to extend NTS fallout patterns to intermediate downwind distances (300 to 1200 km). The radioactive cloud is represented in the model by a population of Lagrangian marker particles, with concentrations calculated on an Eulerian grid. Use of marker particles, with fall velocities dependent on particle size, provides a realistic simulation of fallout as the debris cloud travels downwind. The three-dimensional wind field is derived from observed data, adjusted for mass consistency. Terrain is represented in the grid, which extends up to 1200 km downwind of NTS and has 32-km horizontal resolution and 1-km vertical resolution. Ground deposition is calculated by a deposition-velocity approach. Source terms and relationships between deposition and exposure rate are based on work by Hicks. Uncertainty in particle size and vertical distributions within the debris cloud (and stem) allow for some model "tuning" to better match measured ground-deposition values. Particle trajectories representing different sizes and starting heights above ground zero are used to guide source specification. An hourly time history of the modeled fallout pattern as the debris cloud moves downwind provides estimates of fallout arrival times. Results for event HARRY illustrate the methodology. The composite deposition pattern for all 13 tests is characterized by two lobes extending out to the north-northeast and east-northeast, respectively, at intermediate distances from NTS. Arrival estimates, along with modeled deposition values, augment measured deposition data in the development of data bases at the county level; these data bases are used for estimating radiation exposure at intermediate distances downwind of NTS. Results from a study of event TRINITY are also presented.

Data Compression With Application to Geo-Location

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

wireless sensor network requires the estimation of time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA) parameters using data collected by a set of spatially separated sensors. Compressing the data that is shared among the sensors can provide tremendous savings in terms of the energy and transmission latency. Traditional MSE and perceptual based data compression schemes fail to accurately capture the effects of compression on the TDOA estimation task; therefore, it is necessary to investigate compression algorithms suitable for TDOA parameter estimation. This thesis explores the

Nonlinear Estimation of Discrete-Time Signals Under Random Observation Delay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caballero-Aguila, R.; Jimenez-Lopez, J. D.; Hermoso-Carazo, A.

2008-11-06

This paper presents an approximation to the nonlinear least-squares estimation problem of discrete-time stochastic signals using nonlinear observations with additive white noise which can be randomly delayed by one sampling time. The observation delay is modelled by a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables whose values, zero or one, indicate that the real observation arrives on time or it is delayed and, hence, the available measurement to estimate the signal is not up-to-date. Assuming that the state-space model generating the signal is unknown and only the covariance functions of the processes involved in the observation equation are ready for use,more » a filtering algorithm based on linear approximations of the real observations is proposed.« less

Passive characterization of hydrofracture properties using signals from the hydraulic pumps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rector, J.W. III; Dong, Qichen

1995-12-31

In this study we utilize conical shear wave arrivals recorded in geophone observation wells to characterize a hydrofracture performed in the South Belridge Diatomite oil field. The conical wave arrivals are initially created by the hydraulic pumps on the surface, which send tube waves down the treatment borehole. Since the tube wave velocity in the Diatomite is greater than the shear formation velocity (the shear velocity in the diatomite is about 2,200 ft/s) cortical shear waves are radiated into the formation by the tube waves traveling down the treatment borehole. We use the decrease in amplitude of the tube wavemore » as it passes through the fracture zone to image changes in hydraulic conductivity of the fracture. By combining this information with estimates of the fracture height we obtain estimates of fracture width changes over time using the model of Tang and Cheng (1993). We find an excellent qualitative agreement between tube wave attenuation and pump pressure over time. Fracture widths estimated from the Tang and Cheng model appear to be consistent with the volume of injected fluid and the known length of the hydrofracture. Provided a monitor well can be instrumented, this technique holds potential for obtaining a relatively inexpensive real-time characterization of hydrofracs.« less

A new approach to evaluate gamma-ray measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejager, O. C.; Swanepoel, J. W. H.; Raubenheimer, B. C.; Vandervalt, D. J.

1985-01-01

Misunderstandings about the term random samples its implications may easily arise. Conditions under which the phases, obtained from arrival times, do not form a random sample and the dangers involved are discussed. Watson's U sup 2 test for uniformity is recommended for light curves with duty cycles larger than 10%. Under certain conditions, non-parametric density estimation may be used to determine estimates of the true light curve and its parameters.

VLF long-range lightning location using the arrival time difference technique (ATD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ierkic, H. Mario

1996-01-01

A new network of VLF receiving systems is currently being developed in the USA to support NASA's Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). The new network will be deployed in the east coast of the US, including Puerto Rico, and will be operational in late 1995. The system should give affordable, near real-time, accurate lightning locating capabilities at long ranges and with extended coverage. It is based on the Arrival Time Difference (ATD) method of Lee (1986; 1990). The ATD technique is based on the estimation of the time of arrival of sferics detected over an 18 kHz bandwith. The ground system results will be compared and complemented with satellite optical measurements gathered with the already operational Optical Transient Detector (OTD) instrument and in due course with its successor the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning observations are important to understand atmospheric electrification phenomena, discharge processes, associated phenomena on earth (e.g. whistlers, explosive Spread-F) and other planets. In addition, lightning is a conspicuous indicator of atmospheric activity whose potential is just beginning to be recognized and utilized. On more prosaic grounds, lightning observations are important for protection of life, property and services.

Calibrated Multiple Event Relocations of the Central and Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeck, W. L.; Benz, H.; McNamara, D. E.; Bergman, E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Myers, S. C.

2015-12-01

Earthquake locations are a first-order observable which form the basis of a wide range of seismic analyses. Currently, the ANSS catalog primarily contains published single-event earthquake locations that rely on assumed 1D velocity models. Increasing the accuracy of cataloged earthquake hypocenter locations and origin times and constraining their associated errors can improve our understanding of Earth structure and have a fundamental impact on subsequent seismic studies. Multiple-event relocation algorithms often increase the precision of relative earthquake hypocenters but are hindered by their limited ability to provide realistic location uncertainties for individual earthquakes. Recently, a Bayesian approach to the multiple event relocation problem has proven to have many benefits including the ability to: (1) handle large data sets; (2) easily incorporate a priori hypocenter information; (3) model phase assignment errors; and, (4) correct for errors in the assumed travel time model. In this study we employ bayseloc [Myers et al., 2007, 2009] to relocate earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States from 1964-present. We relocate ~11,000 earthquakes with a dataset of ~439,000 arrival time observations. Our dataset includes arrival-time observations from the ANSS catalog supplemented with arrival-time data from the Reviewed ISC Bulletin (prior to 1981), targeted local studies, and arrival-time data from the TA Array. One significant benefit of the bayesloc algorithm is its ability to incorporate a priori constraints on the probability distributions of specific earthquake locations parameters. To constrain the inversion, we use high-quality calibrated earthquake locations from local studies, including studies from: Raton Basin, Colorado; Mineral, Virginia; Guy, Arkansas; Cheneville, Quebec; Oklahoma; and Mt. Carmel, Illinois. We also add depth constraints to 232 earthquakes from regional moment tensors. Finally, we add constraints from four historic (1964-1973) ground truth events from a verification database. We (1) evaluate our ability to improve our location estimations, (2) use improved locations to evaluate Earth structure in seismically active regions, and (3) examine improvements to the estimated locations of historic large magnitude earthquakes.

Temporal Constraint Propagation for Airlift Planning Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

STATIOU KMSP) (OFFLOAD-STATION EGUN ) (AVAILABLE-TIME COIO) (EARLIEST-ARRIVAL-TIME C012) (LATEST-ARRIVAL-TIME COlS) (PRIORITY 001) (BULK-CARGO 200...CODES NIL)) ($F (LOAD-DESIG!ATOR RI) (ONLOAD-STATION KLFI) (OFFLOAD-STATION EGUN ) (AVAILABLE-TIME COOO) (EARLIEST-ARRIVAL-TIME COOS) (LATEST-ARRIVAL...CATEGORY-CODES NIL)) ($F (LOAD-DESIGNATOR RIS) (ONLOAD-STATION KSBD) (OFFLOAD-STATION EGUN ) (AVAILABLE-TIME COO) (EARLIEST-ARRIVAL-TIME COOS) (LATEST

Enhancing the estimation of blood pressure using pulse arrival time and two confounding factors.

PubMed

Baek, Hyun Jae; Kim, Ko Keun; Kim, Jung Soo; Lee, Boreom; Park, Kwang Suk

2010-02-01

A new method of blood pressure (BP) estimation using multiple regression with pulse arrival time (PAT) and two confounding factors was evaluated in clinical and unconstrained monitoring situations. For the first analysis with clinical data, electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmogram (PPG) and invasive BP signals were obtained by a conventional patient monitoring device during surgery. In the second analysis, ECG, PPG and non-invasive BP were measured using systems developed to obtain data under conditions in which the subject was not constrained. To enhance the performance of BP estimation methods, heart rate (HR) and arterial stiffness were considered as confounding factors in regression analysis. The PAT and HR were easily extracted from ECG and PPG signals. For arterial stiffness, the duration from the maximum derivative point to the maximum of the dicrotic notch in the PPG signal, a parameter called TDB, was employed. In two experiments that normally cause BP variation, the correlation between measured BP and the estimated BP was investigated. Multiple-regression analysis with the two confounding factors improved correlation coefficients for diastolic blood pressure and systolic blood pressure to acceptable confidence levels, compared to existing methods that consider PAT only. In addition, reproducibility for the proposed method was determined using constructed test sets. Our results demonstrate that non-invasive, non-intrusive BP estimation can be obtained using methods that can be applied in both clinical and daily healthcare situations.

Wavelet-based group and phase velocity measurements: Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. Y.; Wang, W. W.; Hung, S. H.

2016-12-01

Measurements of group and phase velocities of surface waves are often carried out by applying a series of narrow bandpass or stationary Gaussian filters localized at specific frequencies to wave packets and estimating the corresponding arrival times at the peak envelopes and phases of the Fourier spectra. However, it's known that seismic waves are inherently nonstationary and not well represented by a sum of sinusoids. Alternatively, a continuous wavelet transform (CWT) which decomposes a time series into a family of wavelets, translated and scaled copies of a generally fast oscillating and decaying function known as the mother wavelet, is capable of retaining localization in both the time and frequency domain and well-suited for the time-frequency analysis of nonstationary signals. Here we develop a wavelet-based method to measure frequency-dependent group and phase velocities, an essential dataset used in crust and mantle tomography. For a given time series, we employ the complex morlet wavelet to obtain the scalogram of amplitude modulus |Wg| and phase φ on the time-frequency plane. The instantaneous frequency (IF) is then calculated by taking the derivative of phase with respect to time, i.e., (1/2π)dφ(f, t)/dt. Time windows comprising strong energy arrivals to be measured can be identified by those IFs close to the frequencies with the maximum modulus and varying smoothly and monotonically with time. The respective IFs in each selected time window are further interpolated to yield a smooth branch of ridge points or representative IFs at which the arrival time, tridge(f), and phase, φridge(f), after unwrapping and correcting cycle skipping based on a priori knowledge of the possible velocity range, are determined for group and phase velocity estimation. We will demonstrate our measurement method using both ambient noise cross correlation functions and multi-mode surface waves from earthquakes. The obtained dispersion curves will be compared with those by a conventional narrow bandpass method.

Risk Reduction of an Invasive Insect by Targeting Surveillance Efforts with the Assistance of a Phenology Model and International Maritime Shipping Routes and Schedules.

PubMed

Gray, David R

2016-05-01

Reducing the risk of introduction to North America of the invasive Asian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar asiatica Vnukovskij and L. d. japonica [Motschulsky]) on international maritime vessels involves two tactics: (1) vessels that wish to arrive in Canada or the United States and have visited any Asian port that is subject to regulation during designated times must obtain a predeparture inspection certificate from an approved entity; and (2) vessels with a certificate may be subjected to an additional inspection upon arrival. A decision support tool is described here with which the allocation of inspection resources at North American ports can be partitioned among multiple vessels according to estimates of the potential onboard Asian gypsy moth population and estimates of the onboard larval emergence pattern. The decision support tool assumes that port inspection is uniformly imperfect at the Asian ports and that each visit to a regulated port has potential for the vessel to be contaminated with gypsy moth egg masses. The decision support tool uses a multigenerational phenology model to estimate the potential onboard population of egg masses by calculating the temporal intersection between the dates of port visits to regulated ports and the simulated oviposition pattern in each port. The phenological development of the onboard population is simulated each day of the vessel log until the vessel arrives at the port being protected from introduction. Multiple independent simulations are used to create a probability distribution of the size and timing of larval emergence. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A near-optimal low complexity sensor fusion technique for accurate indoor localization based on ultrasound time of arrival measurements from low-quality sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitilineos, Stelios A.; Argyreas, Nick D.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2009-05-01

A fusion-based localization technique for location-based services in indoor environments is introduced herein, based on ultrasound time-of-arrival measurements from multiple off-the-shelf range estimating sensors which are used in a market-available localization system. In-situ field measurements results indicated that the respective off-the-shelf system was unable to estimate position in most of the cases, while the underlying sensors are of low-quality and yield highly inaccurate range and position estimates. An extensive analysis is performed and a model of the sensor-performance characteristics is established. A low-complexity but accurate sensor fusion and localization technique is then developed, which consists inof evaluating multiple sensor measurements and selecting the one that is considered most-accurate based on the underlying sensor model. Optimality, in the sense of a genie selecting the optimum sensor, is subsequently evaluated and compared to the proposed technique. The experimental results indicate that the proposed fusion method exhibits near-optimal performance and, albeit being theoretically suboptimal, it largely overcomes most flaws of the underlying single-sensor system resulting in a localization system of increased accuracy, robustness and availability.

Noise Strength Estimates of Three SGRs: Swift J1822.3-1606, SGR J1833-0832 and Swift J1834.9-0846

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serim, M. M.; Inam, S. Ç.; Baykal, A.

2012-12-01

We studied timing solutions of the three magnetars SWIFT J1822.3-1606, SGR J1833-0832 and Swift J1834.9-0846. We extracted the residuals of pulse arrival times with respect to the constant pulse frequency derivative. Using polynomial estimator techniques, we estimated the noise strengths of the sources. Our results showed that the noise strength and spin-down rate are strongly correlated, indicating that increase in spin-down rate leads to more torque noise on the magnetars. We are in progress of extending our analysis to the other magnetars.

The challenges of disease risk ascertainment using accessible data sources for numbers of travelers.

PubMed

Behrens, Ronald H; Carroll, Bernadette

2013-01-01

Accessible travel has led to a rapid growth in international tourism, particularly to developing countries. With the increase, travel-associated morbidity and mortality has changed. Data on traveling populations are essential for policy makers to estimate infectious and noninfectious risks in travelers. Passenger flow statistics are compiled by the World Tourism Organization (WTO) and by official institutions of some countries. This study investigates sources of passenger flow statistics, methods of data collection, and compares datasets for consistency. Four national datasets of departing travelers were compared to the United Nations' World Tourism Organization (WTO) data on passenger arrivals to eight destination countries. The ratio between arrivals and departures was calculated (main destination ratio [MDR]) to estimate the proportion of direct to indirect traveler arrivals. With few exceptions, arrival data exceeded that of departure data for all destinations. India is a primary destination for Australian residents where arrival and departure figures were similar (MDR 1.1), while visits to Cambodia and Turkey, with 3.6- and 3.8-fold higher arrivals, respectively, are part of multidestination trips. For UK residents, arrivals exceeded departures for all destinations except India where the reverse was true (MDR 0.8). A close correlation between arrivals and departures was noted for visits to South Africa while arrivals to Singapore and Cambodia were 7- and 10-fold higher, respectively. Arrivals by Finnish residents to destination countries were 1.4- to 1.6-fold higher than departures and 2.2-fold higher for Canadians visiting China. Different methodologies used to capture arrival and departure statistics result in different estimations of traveler numbers. Data from a single source does not provide a comprehensive picture of most tourism itineraries. Inbound statistics give a more accurate reflection of the total visits made by travelers from a source country. © 2013 International Society of Travel Medicine.

Seismicity of the Bering Glacier Region: Inferences from Relocations Using Data from STEEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panessa, A. L.; Pavlis, G. L.; Hansen, R. A.; Ruppert, N.

2008-12-01

We relocated earthquakes recorded from 1990 to 2007 in the area of the Bering Glacier in southeastern Alaska to test a hypothesis that faults in this area are linked to glaciers. We used waveform correlation to improve arrival time measurements for data from all broadband channels including all the data from the STEEP experiment. We used a novel form of correlation based on interactive array processing of common receiver gathers linked to a three-dimensional grid of control points. This procedure produced 8556 gathers that we processed interactively to produce improved arrival time estimates. The interactive procedure allowed us to select which events in each gather were sufficiently similar to warrant correlation. Redundancy in the result was resolved in a secondary correlation that aligned event stacks of the same station-event pair associated with multiple control points. This procedure yielded only 2240 waveforms that correlated and modified only a total of 524 arrivals in a total database of 12263 arrivals. The correlation procedure changed arrival times on 145 of 509 events in this database. Events with arrivals constrained by correlation were not clustered but were randomly distributed throughout the study area. We used a version of the Progressive Multiple Event Location (PMEL) that analyzed data at each control point to invert for relative locations and a set of path anomalies for each control point. We applied the PMEL procedure with different velocity models and constraints and compared the results to a HypoDD solution produced from the original arrival time data. The relocations are all significant improvements from the standard single-event, catalog locations. The relocations suggest the seismicity in this region is mostly linked to fold and thrust deformation in the Yakatat block. There is a suggestion of a north-dipping trend to much of the seismicity, but the dominant trend is a fairly diffuse cloud of events largely confined to the Yakatat block south of the Bagley Icefield. This is consistent with the recently published tectonic model by Berger et al. (2008).

The energy radiated by the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake estimated from 10-minute P-wave windows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choy, G.L.; Boatwright, J.

2007-01-01

The rupture process of the Mw 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake lasted for approximately 500 sec, nearly twice as long as the teleseismic time windows between the P and PP arrival times generally used to compute radiated energy. In order to measure the P waves radiated by the entire earthquake, we analyze records that extend from the P-wave to the S-wave arrival times from stations at distances ?? >60??. These 8- to 10-min windows contain the PP, PPP, and ScP arrivals, along with other multiply reflected phases. To gauge the effect of including these additional phases, we form the spectral ratio of the source spectrum estimated from extended windows (between TP and TS) to the source spectrum estimated from normal windows (between TP and TPP). The extended windows are analyzed as though they contained only the P-pP-sP wave group. We analyze four smaller earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of the Mw 9.1 mainshock, with similar depths and focal mechanisms. These smaller events range in magnitude from an Mw 6.0 aftershock of 9 January 2005 to the Mw 8.6 Nias earthquake that occurred to the south of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 28 March 2005. We average the spectral ratios for these four events to obtain a frequency-dependent operator for the extended windows. We then correct the source spectrum estimated from the extended records of the 26 December 2004 mainshock to obtain a complete or corrected source spectrum for the entire rupture process (???600 sec) of the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. Our estimate of the total seismic energy radiated by this earthquake is 1.4 ?? 1017 J. When we compare the corrected source spectrum for the entire earthquake to the source spectrum from the first ???250 sec of the rupture process (obtained from normal teleseismic windows), we find that the mainshock radiated much more seismic energy in the first half of the rupture process than in the second half, especially over the period range from 3 sec to 40 sec.

Estimates of velocity structure and source depth using multiple P waves from aftershocks of the 1987 Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills, California, earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.

1991-01-01

Event record sections, which are constructed by plotting seismograms from many closely spaced earthquakes recorded on a few stations, show multiple free-surface reflections (PP, PPP, PPPP) of the P wave in the Imperial Valley. The relative timing of these arrivals is used to estimate the strength of the P-wave velocity gradient within the upper 5 km of the sediment layer. Consistent with previous studies, a velocity model with a value of 1.8 km/sec at the surface increasing linearly to 5.8 km/sec at a depth of 5.5 km fits the data well. The relative amplitudes of the P and PP arrivals are used to estimate the source depth for the aftershock distributions of the Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills main shocks. Although the depth determination has large uncertainties, both the Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills aftershock sequencs appear to have similar depth distribution in the range of 4 to 10 km. -Author

Heterogeneous Data Fusion Method to Estimate Travel Time Distributions in Congested Road Networks

PubMed Central

Lam, William H. K.; Li, Qingquan

2017-01-01

Travel times in congested urban road networks are highly stochastic. Provision of travel time distribution information, including both mean and variance, can be very useful for travelers to make reliable path choice decisions to ensure higher probability of on-time arrival. To this end, a heterogeneous data fusion method is proposed to estimate travel time distributions by fusing heterogeneous data from point and interval detectors. In the proposed method, link travel time distributions are first estimated from point detector observations. The travel time distributions of links without point detectors are imputed based on their spatial correlations with links that have point detectors. The estimated link travel time distributions are then fused with path travel time distributions obtained from the interval detectors using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Based on fused path travel time distribution, an optimization technique is further introduced to update link travel time distributions and their spatial correlations. A case study was performed using real-world data from Hong Kong and showed that the proposed method obtained accurate and robust estimations of link and path travel time distributions in congested road networks. PMID:29210978

Heterogeneous Data Fusion Method to Estimate Travel Time Distributions in Congested Road Networks.

PubMed

Shi, Chaoyang; Chen, Bi Yu; Lam, William H K; Li, Qingquan

2017-12-06

Travel times in congested urban road networks are highly stochastic. Provision of travel time distribution information, including both mean and variance, can be very useful for travelers to make reliable path choice decisions to ensure higher probability of on-time arrival. To this end, a heterogeneous data fusion method is proposed to estimate travel time distributions by fusing heterogeneous data from point and interval detectors. In the proposed method, link travel time distributions are first estimated from point detector observations. The travel time distributions of links without point detectors are imputed based on their spatial correlations with links that have point detectors. The estimated link travel time distributions are then fused with path travel time distributions obtained from the interval detectors using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Based on fused path travel time distribution, an optimization technique is further introduced to update link travel time distributions and their spatial correlations. A case study was performed using real-world data from Hong Kong and showed that the proposed method obtained accurate and robust estimations of link and path travel time distributions in congested road networks.

32 CFR 525.4 - Entry authorization (policy).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) Captains of ships and/or marine vessels planning to enter Kwajalein Missile Range shall not knowingly... when practicable). (vi) Purpose of flight. (vii) Plan of flight route, including the point of origin of flight and its designation and estimated date and times of arrival and departure of airspace covered by...

32 CFR 525.4 - Entry authorization (policy).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...) Captains of ships and/or marine vessels planning to enter Kwajalein Missile Range shall not knowingly... when practicable). (vi) Purpose of flight. (vii) Plan of flight route, including the point of origin of flight and its designation and estimated date and times of arrival and departure of airspace covered by...

32 CFR 525.4 - Entry authorization (policy).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) Captains of ships and/or marine vessels planning to enter Kwajalein Missile Range shall not knowingly... when practicable). (vi) Purpose of flight. (vii) Plan of flight route, including the point of origin of flight and its designation and estimated date and times of arrival and departure of airspace covered by...

32 CFR 525.4 - Entry authorization (policy).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... single or multiple entries. (4) Captains of ships and/or marine vessels planning to enter Kwajalein... of passengers (include list when practicable). (vi) Purpose of flight. (vii) Plan of flight route, including the point of origin of flight and its designation and estimated date and times of arrival and...

32 CFR 525.4 - Entry authorization (policy).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... single or multiple entries. (4) Captains of ships and/or marine vessels planning to enter Kwajalein... of passengers (include list when practicable). (vi) Purpose of flight. (vii) Plan of flight route, including the point of origin of flight and its designation and estimated date and times of arrival and...

Effective Acceleration Model for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paouris, Evangelos; Mavromichalaki, Helen

2017-12-01

In a previous work (Paouris and Mavromichalaki in Solar Phys. 292, 30, 2017), we presented a total of 266 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) with as much information as possible. We developed a new empirical model for estimating the acceleration of these events in the interplanetary medium from this analysis. In this work, we present a new approach on the effective acceleration model (EAM) for predicting the arrival time of the shock that preceds a CME, using data of a total of 214 ICMEs. For the first time, the projection effects of the linear speed of CMEs are taken into account in this empirical model, which significantly improves the prediction of the arrival time of the shock. In particular, the mean value of the time difference between the observed time of the shock and the predicted time was equal to +3.03 hours with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.58 hours and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 22.47 hours. After the improvement of this model, the mean value of the time difference is decreased to -0.28 hours with an MAE of 17.65 hours and an RMSE of 21.55 hours. This improved version was applied to a set of three recent Earth-directed CMEs reported in May, June, and July of 2017, and we compare our results with the values predicted by other related models.

Changes in population evacuation potential for tsunami hazards in Seward, Alaska, since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Peters, Jeff

2014-01-01

Pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards typically focuses on current land-cover conditions and population distributions. To examine how post-disaster redevelopment may influence the evacuation potential of at-risk populations to future threats, we modeled pedestrian travel times to safety in Seward, Alaska, based on conditions before the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster and on modern conditions. Anisotropic, path distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety during the 1964 event and in modern Seward, and results are merged with various population data, including the location and number of residents, employees, public venues, and dependent care facilities. Results suggest that modeled travel time estimates conform well to the fatality patterns of the 1964 event and that evacuation travel times have increased in modern Seward due to the relocation and expansion of port and harbor facilities after the disaster. The majority of individuals threatened by tsunamis today in Seward are employee, customer, and tourist populations, rather than residents in their homes. Modern evacuation travel times to safety for the majority of the region are less than wave arrival times for future tectonic tsunamis but greater than arrival times for landslide-related tsunamis. Evacuation travel times will likely be higher in the winter time, when the presence of snow may constrain evacuations to roads.

Estimated time of arrival and debiasing the time saving bias.

PubMed

Eriksson, Gabriella; Patten, Christopher J D; Svenson, Ola; Eriksson, Lars

2015-01-01

The time saving bias predicts that the time saved when increasing speed from a high speed is overestimated, and underestimated when increasing speed from a slow speed. In a questionnaire, time saving judgements were investigated when information of estimated time to arrival was provided. In an active driving task, an alternative meter indicating the inverted speed was used to debias judgements. The simulated task was to first drive a distance at a given speed, and then drive the same distance again at the speed the driver judged was required to gain exactly 3 min in travel time compared with the first drive. A control group performed the same task with a speedometer and saved less than the targeted 3 min when increasing speed from a high speed, and more than 3 min when increasing from a low speed. Participants in the alternative meter condition were closer to the target. The two studies corroborate a time saving bias and show that biased intuitive judgements can be debiased by displaying the inverted speed. Practitioner Summary: Previous studies have shown a cognitive bias in judgements of the time saved by increasing speed. This simulator study aims to improve driver judgements by introducing a speedometer indicating the inverted speed in active driving. The results show that the bias can be reduced by presenting the inverted speed and this finding can be used when designing in-car information systems.

Exploration of the Theoretical Physical Capacity of the John F. Kennedy International Airport Runway System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neitzke, Kurt W.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

2014-01-01

A design study was completed to explore the theoretical physical capacity (TPC) of the John F. Kennedy International Airport (KJFK) runway system for a northflow configuration assuming impedance-free (to throughput) air traffic control functionality. Individual runways were modeled using an agent-based, airspace simulation tool, the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), with all runways conducting both departures and arrivals on a first-come first-served (FCFS) scheduling basis. A realistic future flight schedule was expanded to 3.5 times the traffic level of a selected baseline day, September 26, 2006, to provide a steady overdemand state for KJFK runways. Rules constraining departure and arrival operations were defined to reflect physical limits beyond which safe operations could no longer be assumed. Safety buffers to account for all sources of operational variability were not included in the TPC estimate. Visual approaches were assumed for all arrivals to minimize inter-arrival spacing. Parallel runway operations were assumed to be independent based on lateral spacing distances. Resulting time intervals between successive airport operations were primarily constrained by same-runway and then by intersecting-runway spacing requirements. The resulting physical runway capacity approximates a theoretical limit that cannot be exceeded without modifying runway interaction assumptions. Comparison with current KJFK operational limits for a north-flow runway configuration indicates a substantial throughput gap of approximately 48%. This gap may be further analyzed to determine which part may be feasibly bridged through the deployment of advanced systems and procedures, and which part cannot, because it is either impossible or not cost-effective to control. Advanced systems for bridging the throughput gap may be conceptualized and simulated using this same experimental setup to estimate the level of gap closure achieved.

Mapping the crustal thickness in Shillong-Mikir Hills Plateau and its adjoining region of northeastern India using Moho reflected waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, Dipok K.; Baruah, Saurabh

2012-04-01

In this study we have tried to detect and collect later phases associated with Moho discontinuity and used them to study the lateral variations of the crustal thickness in Shillong-Mikir Hills Plateau and its adjoining region of northeastern India. We use the inversion algorithm by Nakajima et al. (Nakajima, J., Matsuzawa, T., Hasegawa, A. 2002. Moho depth variation in the central part of northeastern Japan estimated from reflected and converted waves. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 130, 31-47), having epicentral distance ranging from 60 km to 150 km. Taking the advantage of high quality broadband data now available in northeast India, we have detected 1607 Moho reflected phases (PmP and SmS) from 300 numbers of shallow earthquake events (depth ⩽ 25 km) in Shillong-Mikir Hills Plateau and its adjoining region. Notably for PmP phase, this could be identified within 0.5-2.3 s after the first P-arrival. In case of SmS phase, the arrival times are observed within 1.0-4.2 s after the first S-arrival. We estimated the crustal thickness in the study area using travel time difference between the later phases (PmP and SmS) and the first P and S arrivals. The results shows that the Moho is thinner beneath the Shillong Plateau about 35-38 km and is the deepest beneath the Brahmaputra valley to the north about 39-41 km, deeper by 4-5 km compared to the Shillong Plateau with simultaneous observation of thinnest crust (˜33 km) in the western part of the Shillong Plateau in the Garo Hills region.

Probabilistic Estimation of Rare Random Collisions in 3 Space

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

extended Poisson process as a feature of probability theory. With the bulk of research in extended Poisson processes going into parame- ter estimation, the...application of extended Poisson processes to spatial processes is largely untouched. Faddy performed a short study of spatial data, but overtly...the theory of extended Poisson processes . To date, the processes are limited in that the rates only depend on the number of arrivals at some time

Flight parameter estimation using instantaneous frequency and direction of arrival measurements from a single acoustic sensor node.

PubMed

Lo, Kam W

2017-03-01

When an airborne sound source travels past a stationary ground-based acoustic sensor node in a straight line at constant altitude and constant speed that is not much less than the speed of sound in air, the movement of the source during the propagation of the signal from the source to the sensor node (commonly referred to as the "retardation effect") enables the full set of flight parameters of the source to be estimated by measuring the direction of arrival (DOA) of the signal at the sensor node over a sufficiently long period of time. This paper studies the possibility of using instantaneous frequency (IF) measurements from the sensor node to improve the precision of the flight parameter estimates when the source spectrum contains a harmonic line of constant frequency. A simplified Cramer-Rao lower bound analysis shows that the standard deviations in the estimates of the flight parameters can be reduced when IF measurements are used together with DOA measurements. Two flight parameter estimation algorithms that utilize both IF and DOA measurements are described and their performances are evaluated using both simulated data and real data.

Laser-Interferometric Broadband Seismometer for Epicenter Location Estimation

PubMed Central

Lee, Kyunghyun; Kwon, Hyungkwan; You, Kwanho

2017-01-01

In this paper, we suggest a seismic signal measurement system that uses a laser interferometer. The heterodyne laser interferometer is used as a seismometer due to its high accuracy and robustness. Seismic data measured by the laser interferometer is used to analyze crucial earthquake characteristics. To measure P-S time more precisely, the short time Fourier transform and instantaneous frequency estimation methods are applied to the intensity signal (Iy) of the laser interferometer. To estimate the epicenter location, the range difference of arrival algorithm is applied with the P-S time result. The linear matrix equation of the epicenter localization can be derived using P-S time data obtained from more than three observatories. We prove the performance of the proposed algorithm through simulation and experimental results. PMID:29065515

RAPID DETERMINATION OF FOCAL DEPTH USING A GLOBAL NETWORK OF SMALL-APERTURE SEISMIC ARRAYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seats, K.; Koper, K.; Benz, H.

2009-12-01

The National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a year with the mission of locating and characterizing seismic events around the world. A key component of this task is quickly determining the focal depth of each seismic event, which has a first-order effect on estimates of ground shaking used in the impact assessment applications of emergency response activities. Current methods of depth estimation used at the NEIC include arrival time inversion both with and without depth phases, a Bayesian depth constraint based on historical seismicity (1973-present), and moment tensor inversion primarily using P- and S-wave waveforms. In this study, we explore the possibility of automated modeling of waveforms from vertical-component arrays of the International Monitoring System (IMS) to improve rapid depth estimation at NEIC. Because these arrays are small-aperture, they are effective at increasing signal to noise ratios for frequencies of 1 Hz and higher. Currently, NEIC receives continuous real-time data from 23 IMS arrays. Following work done by previous researchers, we developed a technique that acts as an array of arrays. For a given epicentral location we calculate fourth root beams for each IMS array in the distance range of 30 to 95 degrees at the expected slowness vector of the first arrival. Because the IMS arrays are small-aperture, these beams highlight energy that has slowness similar to the first arrival, such as depth phases. The beams are rectified by taking the envelope and then automatically aligned on the largest peak within 5 seconds of the expected arrival time. The station beams are then combined into network beams assuming a range of depths varying from 10 km to 700 km in increments of 1 km. The network beams are computed assuming both pP and sP propagation, and a measure of beam power is output as a function of depth for both propagation models, as well as their sum. We validated this approach using several hundred seismic events in the magnitude range 4.5-6.5 mb that occurred in 2008 and 2009. In most cases, clear spikes in the network beam power existed at depths around those estimated by the NEIC using traditional location procedures. However, in most cases there was also a bimodality in the network beam power because of the ambiguity between assuming pP or sP propagation for later arriving energy. There were only a handful of cases in which a seismic event generated both sP and pP phases with sizes large enough to resolve the ambiguity. We are currently working to include PKP arrivals into the network beams and experimenting with various tuning parameters to improve the efficiency of the algorithm. This promising approach will allow NEIC to significantly and systematically improve the quality of hypocentral locations reported in the PDE and provide NEIC with additional valuable information on seismic source parameters needed in emergency response applications.

Dynamic Scheduling for Veterans Health Administration Patients using Geospatial Dynamic Overbooking.

PubMed

Adams, Stephen; Scherer, William T; White, K Preston; Payne, Jason; Hernandez, Oved; Gerber, Mathew S; Whitehead, N Peter

2017-10-12

The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) is plagued by abnormally high no-show and cancellation rates that reduce the productivity and efficiency of its medical outpatient clinics. We address this issue by developing a dynamic scheduling system that utilizes mobile computing via geo-location data to estimate the likelihood of a patient arriving on time for a scheduled appointment. These likelihoods are used to update the clinic's schedule in real time. When a patient's arrival probability falls below a given threshold, the patient's appointment is canceled. This appointment is immediately reassigned to another patient drawn from a pool of patients who are actively seeking an appointment. The replacement patients are prioritized using their arrival probability. Real-world data were not available for this study, so synthetic patient data were generated to test the feasibility of the design. The method for predicting the arrival probability was verified on a real set of taxicab data. This study demonstrates that dynamic scheduling using geo-location data can reduce the number of unused appointments with minimal risk of double booking resulting from incorrect predictions. We acknowledge that there could be privacy concerns with regards to government possession of one's location and offer strategies for alleviating these concerns in our conclusion.

Ultrasonic data compression via parameter estimation.

PubMed

Cardoso, Guilherme; Saniie, Jafar

2005-02-01

Ultrasonic imaging in medical and industrial applications often requires a large amount of data collection. Consequently, it is desirable to use data compression techniques to reduce data and to facilitate the analysis and remote access of ultrasonic information. The precise data representation is paramount to the accurate analysis of the shape, size, and orientation of ultrasonic reflectors, as well as to the determination of the properties of the propagation path. In this study, a successive parameter estimation algorithm based on a modified version of the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to compress and denoise ultrasonic signals is presented. It has been shown analytically that the CWT (i.e., time x frequency representation) yields an exact solution for the time-of-arrival and a biased solution for the center frequency. Consequently, a modified CWT (MCWT) based on the Gabor-Helstrom transform is introduced as a means to exactly estimate both time-of-arrival and center frequency of ultrasonic echoes. Furthermore, the MCWT also has been used to generate a phase x bandwidth representation of the ultrasonic echo. This representation allows the exact estimation of the phase and the bandwidth. The performance of this algorithm for data compression and signal analysis is studied using simulated and experimental ultrasonic signals. The successive parameter estimation algorithm achieves a data compression ratio of (1-5N/J), where J is the number of samples and N is the number of echoes in the signal. For a signal with 10 echoes and 2048 samples, a compression ratio of 96% is achieved with a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) improvement above 20 dB. Furthermore, this algorithm performs robustly, yields accurate echo estimation, and results in SNR enhancements ranging from 10 to 60 dB for composite signals having SNR as low as -10 dB.

Real-time correction of beamforming time delay errors in abdominal ultrasound imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, K. W.

2000-04-01

The speed of sound varies with tissue type, yet commercial ultrasound imagers assume a constant sound speed. Sound speed variation in abdominal fat and muscle layers is widely believed to be largely responsible for poor contrast and resolution in some patients. The simplest model of the abdominal wall assumes that it adds a spatially varying time delay to the ultrasound wavefront. The adequacy of this model is controversial. We describe an adaptive imaging system consisting of a GE LOGIQ 700 imager connected to a multi- processor computer. Arrival time errors for each beamforming channel, estimated by correlating each channel signal with the beamsummed signal, are used to correct the imager's beamforming time delays at the acoustic frame rate. A multi- row transducer provides two-dimensional sampling of arrival time errors. We observe significant improvement in abdominal images of healthy male volunteers: increased contrast of blood vessels, increased visibility of the renal capsule, and increased brightness of the liver.

Effects of prehospital epinephrine administration on neurologically intact survival in bystander-witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with non-shockable rhythm depend on prehospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation duration required to hospital arrival.

PubMed

Funada, Akira; Goto, Yoshikazu; Tada, Hayato; Shimojima, Masaya; Hayashi, Kenshi; Kawashiri, Masa-Aki; Yamagishi, Masakazu

2018-06-23

The effects of prehospital epinephrine administration on post-arrest neurological outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with non-shockable rhythm remain unclear. To examine the time-dependent effectiveness of prehospital epinephrine administration, we analyzed 118,396 bystander-witnessed OHCA patients with non-shockable rhythm from the prospectively recorded all-Japan OHCA registry between 2011 and 2014. Patients who achieved prehospital return of spontaneous circulation without prehospital epinephrine administration were excluded. Patients with prehospital epinephrine administration were stratified according to the time from the initiation of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) by emergency medical service (EMS) providers to the first epinephrine administration (≤ 10, 11-19, and ≥ 20 min). Patients without prehospital epinephrine administration were stratified according to the time from CPR initiation by EMS providers to hospital arrival (≤ 10, 11-19, and ≥ 20 min). The primary outcome was 1-month neurologically intact survival (cerebral performance category 1 or 2; CPC 1-2). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that there was no significant difference in the chance of 1-month CPC 1-2 between patients who arrived at hospital in ≤ 10 min without prehospital epinephrine administration and patients with time to epinephrine administration ≤ 19 min. However, compared to patients who arrived at hospital in ≤ 10 min without prehospital epinephrine administration, patients with time to epinephrine administration ≥ 20 min and patients who arrived at hospital in 11-19, and ≥ 20 min without prehospital epinephrine administration were significantly associated with decreased chance of 1-month CPC 1-2 (p < 0.05, < 0.05, and < 0.001, respectively). In conclusion, when prehospital CPR duration from CPR initiation by EMS providers to hospital arrival estimated to be ≥ 11 min, prehospital epinephrine administered ≤ 19 min from CPR initiation by EMS providers could improve neurologically intact survival in bystander-witnessed OHCA patients with non-shockable rhythm.

Role of Arrival Time Difference Between Lesions and Lung Tissue on Contrast-Enhanced Sonography in the Differential Diagnosis of Subpleural Pulmonary Lesions.

PubMed

Bai, Jing; Yang, Wei; Wang, Song; Guan, Rui-Hong; Zhang, Hui; Fu, Jing-Jing; Wu, Wei; Yan, Kun

2016-07-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the diagnostic value of the arrival time difference between lesions and surrounding lung tissue on contrast-enhanced sonography of subpleural pulmonary lesions. A total of 110 patients with subpleural pulmonary lesions who underwent both conventional and contrast-enhanced sonography and had a definite diagnosis were enrolled. After contrast agent injection, the arrival times in the lesion, lung, and chest wall were recorded. The arrival time differences between various tissues were also calculated. Statistical analysis showed a significant difference in the lesion arrival time, the arrival time difference between the lesion and lung, and the arrival time difference between the chest wall and lesion (all P < .001) for benign and malignant lesions. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the optimal diagnostic criterion was the arrival time difference between the lesion and lung, and that the best cutoff point was 2.5 seconds (later arrival signified malignancy). This new diagnostic criterion showed superior diagnostic accuracy (97.1%) compared to conventional diagnostic criteria. The individualized diagnostic method based on an arrival time comparison using contrast-enhanced sonography had high diagnostic accuracy (97.1%) with good feasibility and could provide useful diagnostic information for subpleural pulmonary lesions.

Raindrop intervalometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Giesen, Nicolaas; Hut, Rolf; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

2017-04-01

If one can assume that drop size distributions can be effectively described by a generalized gamma function [1], one can estimate this function on the basis of the distribution of time intervals between drops hitting a certain area. The arrival of a single drop is relatively easy to measure with simple consumer devices such as cameras or piezoelectric elements. Here we present an open-hardware design for the electronics and statistical processing of an intervalometer that measures time intervals between drop arrivals. The specific hardware in this case is a piezoelectric element in an appropriate housing, combined with an instrumentation op-amp and an Arduino processor. Although it would not be too difficult to simply register the arrival times of all drops, it is more practical to only report the main statistics. For this purpose, all intervals below a certain threshold during a reporting interval are summed and counted. We also sum the scaled squares, cubes, and fourth powers of the intervals. On the basis of the first four moments, one can estimate the corresponding generalized gamma function and obtain some sense of the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. Special attention is needed to determine the lower threshold of the drop sizes that can be measured. This minimum size often varies over the area being monitored, such as is the case for piezoelectric elements. We describe a simple method to determine these (distributed) minimal drop sizes and present a bootstrap method to make the necessary corrections. Reference [1] Uijlenhoet, R., and J. N. M. Stricker. "A consistent rainfall parameterization based on the exponential raindrop size distribution." Journal of Hydrology 218, no. 3 (1999): 101-127.

Joint estimation of 2D-DOA and frequency based on space-time matrix and conformal array.

PubMed

Wan, Liang-Tian; Liu, Lu-Tao; Si, Wei-Jian; Tian, Zuo-Xi

2013-01-01

Each element in the conformal array has a different pattern, which leads to the performance deterioration of the conventional high resolution direction-of-arrival (DOA) algorithms. In this paper, a joint frequency and two-dimension DOA (2D-DOA) estimation algorithm for conformal array are proposed. The delay correlation function is used to suppress noise. Both spatial and time sampling are utilized to construct the spatial-time matrix. The frequency and 2D-DOA estimation are accomplished based on parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis without spectral peak searching and parameter pairing. The proposed algorithm needs only four guiding elements with precise positions to estimate frequency and 2D-DOA. Other instrumental elements can be arranged flexibly on the surface of the carrier. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Eavesdropping on the Arctic: Automated bioacoustics reveal dynamics in songbird breeding phenology.

PubMed

Oliver, Ruth Y; Ellis, Daniel P W; Chmura, Helen E; Krause, Jesse S; Pérez, Jonathan H; Sweet, Shannan K; Gough, Laura; Wingfield, John C; Boelman, Natalie T

2018-06-01

Bioacoustic networks could vastly expand the coverage of wildlife monitoring to complement satellite observations of climate and vegetation. This approach would enable global-scale understanding of how climate change influences phenomena such as migratory timing of avian species. The enormous data sets that autonomous recorders typically generate demand automated analyses that remain largely undeveloped. We devised automated signal processing and machine learning approaches to estimate dates on which songbird communities arrived at arctic breeding grounds. Acoustically estimated dates agreed well with those determined via traditional surveys and were strongly related to the landscape's snow-free dates. We found that environmental conditions heavily influenced daily variation in songbird vocal activity, especially before egg laying. Our novel approaches demonstrate that variation in avian migratory arrival can be detected autonomously. Large-scale deployment of this innovation in wildlife monitoring would enable the coverage necessary to assess and forecast changes in bird migration in the face of climate change.

The use of propagation path corrections to improve regional seismic event location in western China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steck, L.K.; Cogbill, A.H.; Velasco, A.A.

1999-03-01

In an effort to improve the ability to locate seismic events in western China using only regional data, the authors have developed empirical propagation path corrections (PPCs) and applied such corrections using both traditional location routines as well as a nonlinear grid search method. Thus far, the authors have concentrated on corrections to observed P arrival times for shallow events using travel-time observations available from the USGS EDRs, the ISC catalogs, their own travel-tim picks from regional data, and data from other catalogs. They relocate events with the algorithm of Bratt and Bache (1988) from a region encompassing China. Formore » individual stations having sufficient data, they produce a map of the regional travel-time residuals from all well-located teleseismic events. From these maps, interpolated PPC surfaces have been constructed using both surface fitting under tension and modified Bayesian kriging. The latter method offers the advantage of providing well-behaved interpolants, but requires that the authors have adequate error estimates associated with the travel-time residuals. To improve error estimates for kriging and event location, they separate measurement error from modeling error. The modeling error is defined as the travel-time variance of a particular model as a function of distance, while the measurement error is defined as the picking error associated with each phase. They estimate measurement errors for arrivals from the EDRs based on roundoff or truncation, and use signal-to-noise for the travel-time picks from the waveform data set.« less

Improved phase arrival estimate and location for local earthquakes in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, E. A.; Rowe, C. A.; Begnaud, M. L.

2012-12-01

The Korean Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) and the Korean Meteorological Agency (KMA) regularly report local (distance < ~1200 km) seismicity recorded with their networks; we obtain preliminary event location estimates as well as waveform data, but no phase arrivals are reported, so the data are not immediately useful for earthquake location. Our goal is to identify seismic events that are sufficiently well-located to provide accurate seismic travel-time information for events within the KIGAM and KMA networks, and also recorded by some regional stations. Toward that end, we are using a combination of manual phase identification and arrival-time picking, with waveform cross-correlation, to cluster events that have occurred in close proximity to one another, which allows for improved phase identification by comparing the highly correlating waveforms. We cross-correlate the known events with one another on 5 seismic stations and cluster events that correlate above a correlation coefficient threshold of 0.7, which reveals few clusters containing few events each. The small number of repeating events suggests that the online catalogs have had mining and quarry blasts removed before publication, as these can contribute significantly to repeating seismic sources in relatively aseismic regions such as South Korea. The dispersed source locations in our catalog, however, are ideal for seismic velocity modeling by providing superior sampling through the dense seismic station arrangement, which produces favorable event-to-station ray path coverage. Following careful manual phase picking on 104 events chosen to provide adequate ray coverage, we re-locate the events to obtain improved source coordinates. The re-located events are used with Thurber's Simul2000 pseudo-bending local tomography code to estimate the crustal structure on the Korean Peninsula, which is an important contribution to ongoing calibration for events of interest in the region.

Estimating unbiased phenological trends by adapting site-occupancy models.

PubMed

Roth, Tobias; Strebel, Nicolas; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-08-01

As a response to climate warming, many animals and plants have been found to shift phenologies, such as appearance in spring or timing of reproduction. However, traditional measures for shifts in phenology that are based on observational data likely are biased due to a large influence of population size, observational effort, starting date of a survey, or other causes that may affect the probability of detecting a species. Understanding phenological responses of species to climate change, however, requires a robust measure that could be compared among studies and study years. Here, we developed a new method for estimating arrival and departure dates based on site-occupancy models. Using simulated data, we show that our method provided virtually unbiased estimates of phenological events even if detection probability or the number of sites occupied by the species is changing over time. To illustrate the flexibility of our method, we analyzed spring arrival of two long-distance migrant songbirds and the length of the flight period of two butterfly species, using data from a long-term biodiversity monitoring program in Switzerland. In contrast to many birds that migrate short distances, the two long-distance migrant songbirds tended to postpone average spring arrival by -0.5 days per year between 1995 and 2012. Furthermore, the flight period of the short-distance-flying butterfly species apparently became even shorter over the study period, while the flight period of the longer-distance-flying butterfly species remained relatively stable. Our method could be applied to temporally and spatially extensive data from a wide range of monitoring programs and citizen science projects, to help unravel how species and communities respond to global warming.

Nonlinear Computerized Methodology. A. Angle of Arrival Estimation. B. Data Modeling and Identification

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-10

essentially In the Wianer- Ville distribution ( WVD ). A preliminary analysis indicates that the simple operation of autoconvolution can enhance spectral...many troublesome cases as a supplement to MUSIC (and its adaptations) and as a simple alternative (or representation of) the Wigner - Ville ... WVD is a time-frequency distribution which provides an unbiased spectrum estimate by W(t,W) = f H,(u) X (t - u/2) X (t + u/2) e -iwu du , where the

An Analysis of the Relationship Between the Heat Index and Arrivals in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Levy, Matthew; Broccoli, Morgan; Cole, Gai; Jenkins, J Lee; Klein, Eili Y.

2015-01-01

Background: Heatwaves are one of the most deadly weather-related events in the United States and account for more deaths annually than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined. However, there are few statistically rigorous studies of the effect of heatwaves on emergency department (ED) arrivals. A better understanding of this relationship can help hospitals plan better and provide better care for patients during these types of events. Methods: A retrospective review of all ED patient arrivals that occurred from April 15 through August 15 for the years 2008 through 2013 was performed. Daily patient arrival data were combined with weather data (temperature and humidity) to examine the potential relationships between the heat index and ED arrivals as well as the length of time patients spend in the ED using generalized additive models. In particular the effect the 2012 heat wave that swept across the United States, and which was hypothesized to increase arrivals was examined. Results: While there was no relationship found between the heat index and arrivals on a single day, a non-linear relationship was found between the mean three-day heat index and the number of daily arrivals. As the mean three-day heat index initially increased, the number of arrivals significantly declined. However, as the heat index continued to increase, the number of arrivals increased. It was estimated that there was approximately a 2% increase in arrivals when the mean heat index for three days approached 100°F. This relationship was strongest for adults aged 18-64, as well as for patients arriving with lower acuity. Additionally, a positive relationship was noted between the mean three-day heat index and the length of stay (LOS) for patients in the ED, but no relationship was found for the time from which a patient was first seen to when a disposition decision was made. No significant relationship was found for the effect of the 2012 heat wave on ED arrivals, though it did have an effect on patient LOS. Conclusion: A single hot day has only a limited effect on ED arrivals, but continued hot weather has a cumulative effect. When the heat index is high (~90°F) for a number of days in a row, this curtails peoples activities, but if the heat index is very hot (~100°F) this likely results in an exacerbation of underlying conditions as well as heat-related events that drives an increase in ED arrivals. Periods of high heat also affects the length of stay of patients either by complicating care or by making it more difficult to discharge patients. PMID:26579329

PROPAGATION OF THE 2014 JANUARY 7 CME AND RESULTING GEOMAGNETIC NON-EVENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, M. L.; Collinson, G.; Taktakishvili, A.

2015-10-20

On 2014 January 7 an X1.2 flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) with a radial speed ≈2500 km s{sup −1} was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth (≈36 hr) and predict a strong geomagnetic storm. However, only a glancing CME arrival was observed at Earth with a transit time of ≈49 hr and a K{sub P} geomagnetic index of only 3−. We study the interplanetary propagation of this CME using the ensemble Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)–ENLIL+Cone model, that allows a sampling of CME parameter uncertainties. We exploremore » a series of simulations to isolate the effects of the background solar wind solution, CME shape, tilt, location, size, and speed, and the results are compared with observed in situ arrivals at Venus, Earth, and Mars. Our results show that a tilted ellipsoid CME shape improves the initial real-time prediction to better reflect the observed in situ signatures and the geomagnetic storm strength. CME parameters from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model used as input to WSA–ENLIL+Cone, along with a tilted ellipsoid cloud shape, improve the arrival-time error by 14.5, 18.7, 23.4 hr for Venus, Earth, and Mars respectively. These results highlight that CME orientation and directionality with respect to observatories play an important role in understanding the propagation of this CME, and for forecasting other glancing CME arrivals. This study also demonstrates the importance of three-dimensional CME fitting made possible by multiple viewpoint imaging.« less

A Fast-Time Simulation Tool for Analysis of Airport Arrival Traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erzberger, Heinz; Meyn, Larry A.; Neuman, Frank

2004-01-01

The basic objective of arrival sequencing in air traffic control automation is to match traffic demand and airport capacity while minimizing delays. The performance of an automated arrival scheduling system, such as the Traffic Management Advisor developed by NASA for the FAA, can be studied by a fast-time simulation that does not involve running expensive and time-consuming real-time simulations. The fast-time simulation models runway configurations, the characteristics of arrival traffic, deviations from predicted arrival times, as well as the arrival sequencing and scheduling algorithm. This report reviews the development of the fast-time simulation method used originally by NASA in the design of the sequencing and scheduling algorithm for the Traffic Management Advisor. The utility of this method of simulation is demonstrated by examining the effect on delays of altering arrival schedules at a hub airport.

The effectiveness of the 55 MPH national maximum speed limit as a life saving benefit : executive summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

The following report contains an analysis of the life saving benefits resulting from the 55 mph NMSL from 1974-1979. Monthly fatality data from 1970-1979 was used in a time series model to arrive at the estimated safety benefits (lives saved). The ti...

Rapid Estimation of Building Damage by Conventional Weapons

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

impulse applied to reflect surface 17 iso = impulse of incident wave t0 = wave duration Lw = wavelength of incident wave ta = arrival time...floor area = 3 x 100 x 90 = 27000 ft2 Tributary area support per column = 27000 /30 = 900 ft2 Therefore, the tributary area supported by a column is

Estimation of ion charge states using Van Allen Probes-RBSPICE: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farinas Perez, G.; Sibeck, D. G.

2017-12-01

We use data from the RBSPICE instrument aboard the Van Allen Probes spacecraft to identify particle injection events with ion drift echoes. We calculate the arrival time and drift period of the protons, helium and oxygen for every energy channel of the RBSPICE instrument. The ions drift period depends upon their energy and charge, as we know the particle energy and the time drift period, the charge state can be estimated for a dipolar magnetic field model. A drift-echo event occurred in May 23, 2013 at 0400 UT is analyzed.

Thickness of the Descending Philippine Sea Plate Estimated from Tomographic Images beneath the Kumano Basin, along the Nankai Trough, Southwestern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamiya, S.; Suzuki, K.; Takahashi, N.

2015-12-01

The Philippine Sea plate subducts northwestward beneath the Japanese islands from the south. The average thickness of the overall Philippine Sea plate has been investigated in the oceanic area using surface wave analyses [e.g. Abe and Kanamori, 1970], suggesting a thin (30-40 km thick) plate. On the other hand, several studies have indicated a thicker Philippine Sea plate based on source mechanisms and seismicity in the eastern rim of the plate [Seno, 1987; Moriyama et al., 1989]. From tomographic images, Kamiya and Kobayashi [2007] pointed out that the subducting Philippine Sea slab has thickness variation with a stepwise offset east of Izu Peninsula. The eastern (the Kanto district) and western (north of Izu Peninsula and the Tokai district) regions have respective thicknesses of 60 and 25 km. In the Kumano basin, the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) developed the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunami (DONET) in order to monitor seismic activity [Kaneda et al., 2009; Kawaguchi et al., 2010]. DONET ocean-bottom stations are connected with an optical fiber cable, and data are transferred in real time to our laboratory at JAMSTEC. The present study obtains three-dimensional P-wave and S-wave seismic velocity models beneath the Kumano basin by employing an travel time tomography technique. We pick arrival times of P and S waves from the waveform data recorded by the DONET system during the period from January 2011 to December 2014. In order to improve the resolution in the deeper regions than the seismic area inside of the descending slab, we also pick arrival times from the seismic events occurred outside of this district. We use these picked arrival times adding to the JMA catalogue data in seismic tomography. From the obtained tomographic images, we find high velocity anomalies corresponding to the descending Philippine Sea slab. We also find low velocity anomalies under the high velocity slab clearly. There seems to be a sharp velocity contrast between the anomalies. We can estimate the thickness of the descending slab at about 30 km, which is almost consistent with the thickness beneath the Tokai district estimated by Kamiya and Kobayashi [2007] and comparable to the effective elastic thickness beneath the eastern part of the Shikoku basin estimated by Yoshioka and Ito [2001].

Earthquake Early Warning in Japan - Result of recent two years -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimoyama, T.; Doi, K.; Kiyomoto, M.; Hoshiba, M.

2009-12-01

Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) started to provide Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) to the general public in October 2007. It was followed by provision of EEW to a limited number of users who understand the technical limit of EEW and can utilize it for automatic control from August 2006. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan definitely means information of estimated amplitude and arrival time of a strong ground motion after fault rupture occurred. In other words, the EEW provided by JMA is defined as a forecast of a strong ground motion before the strong motion arrival. EEW of JMA is to enable advance countermeasures to disasters caused by strong ground motions with providing a warning message of anticipating strong ground motion before the S wave arrival. However, due to its very short available time period, there should need some measures and ideas to provide rapidly EEW and utilize it properly. - EEW is issued to general public when the maximum seismic intensity 5 lower (JMA scale) or greater is expected. - EEW message contains origin time, epicentral region name, and names of areas (unit is about 1/3 to 1/4 of one prefecture) where seismic intensity 4 or greater is expected. Expected arrival time is not included because it differs substantially even in one unit area. - EEW is to be broadcast through the broadcasting media(TV, radio and City Administrative Disaster Management Radio), and is delivered to cellular phones through cell broadcast system. For those who would like to know the more precise estimation and smaller earthquake information at their point of their properties, JMA allows designated private companies to provide forecast of strong ground motion, in which the estimation of a seismic intensity as well as arrival time of S-wave are contained, at arbitrary places under the JMA’s technical assurance. From October, 2007 to August, 2009, JMA issued 11 warnings to general public expecting seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater, including M=7.2 inland earthquake at Tohoku district (Iwate-Miyagi-nairiku-earthquakes; June 14, 2008) and M=6.5 earthquake at Suruga bay (August, 11, 2009). For 7 cases out of 11 cases seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater were actually observed; for 3 cases, observed maximum seismic intensity was 4; for 1 case it was false alarm. During this period, 10 earthquakes occurred for which observed maximum seismic intensity was “5 lower” or greater. For 7 cases out of 10, JMA issued the warnings to general public; for 3 cases the warnings were not issued because expected seismic intensity was 4. The false alarm, which occurred on 25, August, 2009 by software bag, raised discussion how the false warning should be canceled. In this study, we will summarize the performance of the system ,and introduce some examples of the actual issuance .

Incorporating fault zone head wave and direct wave secondary arrival times into seismic tomography: Application at Parkfield, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennington, Ninfa L.; Thurber, Clifford; Peng, Zhigang; Zhang, Haijiang; Zhao, Peng

2013-03-01

We present a three-dimensional (3D) P wave velocity (Vp) model of the Parkfield region that utilizes existing P wave arrival time data, including fault zone head waves (FZHWs), and data from direct wave secondary arrivals (DWSAs). The first-arrival and DWSA travel times are obtained as the global- and local-minimum travel time paths, respectively. The inclusion of FZHWs and DWSAs results in as much as a 5% and a 10% increase in the across-fault velocity contrast, respectively, for the Vp model at Parkfield relative to that of Thurber et al. [2006]. Viewed along strike, three pronounced velocity contrast regions are observed: a pair of strong positive velocity contrasts (SW fast), one NW of the 1966 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter and the other SE of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter, and a strong negative velocity contrast (NE fast) between the two hypocenters. The negative velocity contrast partially to entirely encompasses peak coseismic slip estimated in several slip models for the 2004 earthquake, suggesting that the negative velocity contrast played a part in defining the rupture patch of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Following Ampuero and Ben-Zion (2008), the pattern of velocity contrasts is consistent with the observed bilateral rupture propagation for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Although the velocity contrasts also suggest bilateral rupture propagation for the 1966 Parkfield earthquake, the fault is creeping to the NW here, i.e., exhibiting velocity-strengthening behavior. Thus, it is not surprising that rupture propagated only SE during this event.

Viterbi sparse spike detection and a compositional origin to ultralow-velocity zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Samuel Paul

Accurate interpretation of seismic travel times and amplitudes in both the exploration and global scales is complicated by the band-limited nature of seismic data. We present a stochastic method, Viterbi sparse spike detection (VSSD), to reduce a seismic waveform into a most probable constituent spike train. Model waveforms are constructed from a set of candidate spike trains convolved with a source wavelet estimate. For each model waveform, a profile hidden Markov model (HMM) is constructed to represent the waveform as a stochastic generative model with a linear topology corresponding to a sequence of samples. The Viterbi algorithm is employed to simultaneously find the optimal nonlinear alignment between a model waveform and the seismic data, and to assign a score to each candidate spike train. The most probable travel times and amplitudes are inferred from the alignments of the highest scoring models. Our analyses show that the method can resolve closely spaced arrivals below traditional resolution limits and that travel time estimates are robust in the presence of random noise and source wavelet errors. We applied the VSSD method to constrain the elastic properties of a ultralow- velocity zone (ULVZ) at the core-mantle boundary beneath the Coral Sea. We analyzed vertical component short period ScP waveforms for 16 earthquakes occurring in the Tonga-Fiji trench recorded at the Alice Springs Array (ASAR) in central Australia. These waveforms show strong pre and postcursory seismic arrivals consistent with ULVZ layering. We used the VSSD method to measure differential travel-times and amplitudes of the post-cursor arrival ScSP and the precursor arrival SPcP relative to ScP. We compare our measurements to a database of approximately 340,000 synthetic seismograms finding that these data are best fit by a ULVZ model with an S-wave velocity reduction of 24%, a P-wave velocity reduction of 23%, a thickness of 8.5 km, and a density increase of 6%. We simultaneously constrain both P- and S-wave velocity reductions as a 1:1 ratio inside this ULVZ. This 1:1 ratio is not consistent with a partial melt origin to ULVZs. Rather, we demonstrate that a compositional origin is more likely.

Identification of Preferential Groundwater Flow Pathways from Local Tracer Breakthrough Curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokkinaki, A.; Sleep, B. E.; Dearden, R.; Wealthall, G.

2009-12-01

Characterizing preferential groundwater flow paths in the subsurface is a key factor in the design of in situ remediation technologies. When applying reaction-based remediation methods, such as enhanced bioremediation, preferential flow paths result in fast solute migration and potentially ineffective delivery of reactants, thereby adversely affecting treatment efficiency. The presence of such subsurface conduits was observed at the SABRe (Source Area Bioremediation) research site. Non-uniform migration of contaminants and electron donor during the field trials of enhanced bioremediation supported this observation. To better determine the spatial flow field of the heterogeneous aquifer, a conservative tracer test was conducted. Breakthrough curves were obtained at a reference plane perpendicular to the principal groundwater flow direction. The resulting dataset was analyzed using three different methods: peak arrival times, analytical solution fitting and moment analysis. Interpretation using the peak arrival time method indicated areas of fast plume migration. However, some of the high velocities are supported by single data points, thus adding considerable uncertainty to the estimated velocity distribution. Observation of complete breakthrough curves indicated different types of solute breakthrough, corresponding to different transport mechanisms. Sharp peaks corresponded to high conductivity preferential flow pathways, whereas more dispersed breakthrough curves with long tails were characteristic of significant dispersive mixing and dilution. While analytical solutions adequately quantified flow characteristics for the first type of curves, they failed to do so for the second type, in which case they gave unrealistic results. Therefore, a temporal moment analysis was performed to obtain complete spatial distributions of mass recovery, velocity and dispersivity. Though the results of moment analysis qualitatively agreed with the results of previous methods, more realistic estimates of velocities were obtained and the presence of one major preferential flow pathway was confirmed. However, low mass recovery and deviations from the 10% scaling rule for dispersivities indicate that insufficient spatial and temporal monitoring, as well as interpolation and truncation errors introduced uncertainty in the flow and transport parameters estimated by the method of moments. The results of the three analyses are valuable for enhancing the understanding of mass transport and remediation performance. Comparing the different interpretation methods, increasing the amount of concentration data considered in the analysis, the derived velocity fields were smoother and the estimated local velocities and dispersivities became more realistic. In conclusion, moment analysis is a method that represents a smoothed average of the velocity across the entire breakthrough curve, whereas the peak arrival time, which may be a less well constrained estimate, represents the physical peak arrival and typically yields a higher velocity than the moment analysis. This is an important distinction when applying the results of the tracer test to field sites.

Tracking marine mammals using passive acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nosal, Eva-Marie

2007-12-01

It is difficult to study the behavior and physiology of marine mammals or to understand and mitigate human impact on them because much of their lives are spent underwater. Since sound propagates for long distances in the ocean and since many cetaceans are vocal, passive acoustics is a valuable tool for studying and monitoring their behavior. After a brief introduction to and review of passive acoustic tracking methods, this dissertation develops and applies two new methods. Both methods use widely-spaced (tens of kilometers) bottom-mounted hydrophone arrays, as well as propagation models that account for depth-dependent sound speed profiles. The first passive acoustic tracking method relies on arrival times of direct and surface-reflected paths. It is used to track a sperm whale using 5 at the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center (AUTEC) and gives position estimates that are accurate to within 10 meters. With such accuracy, the whale's pitch and yaw are estimated by assuming that its main axis (which points from the tail to the rostrum) is parallel to its velocity. Roll is found by fitting the details of the pulses within each sperm whale click to the so-called bent horn model of sperm whale sound production. Finally, given the position and orientation of the whale, its beam pattern is reconstructed and found to be highly directional with an intense forward directed component. Pair-wise spectrogram (PWS) processing is the second passive acoustic tracking method developed in this dissertation. Although it is computationally more intensive, PWS has several advantages over arrival-time tracking methods, especially in shallow water environments, for long duration calls, and for multiple-animal datasets, as is the case for humpback whales on Hawaiian breeding grounds. Results of simulations with realistic noise conditions and environmental mismatch are given and compared to other passive localization techniques. When applied to the AUTEC sperm whale dataset, PWS position estimates are within meters of those obtained using the time-of-arrival method.

Modeling the direction-continuous time-of-arrival in head-related transfer functions

PubMed Central

Ziegelwanger, Harald; Majdak, Piotr

2015-01-01

Head-related transfer functions (HRTFs) describe the filtering of the incoming sound by the torso, head, and pinna. As a consequence of the propagation path from the source to the ear, each HRTF contains a direction-dependent, broadband time-of-arrival (TOA). TOAs are usually estimated independently for each direction from HRTFs, a method prone to artifacts and limited by the spatial sampling. In this study, a continuous-direction TOA model combined with an outlier-removal algorithm is proposed. The model is based on a simplified geometric representation of the listener, and his/her arbitrary position within the HRTF measurement. The outlier-removal procedure uses the extreme studentized deviation test to remove implausible TOAs. The model was evaluated for numerically calculated HRTFs of sphere, torso, and pinna under various conditions. The accuracy of estimated parameters was within the resolution given by the sampling rate. Applied to acoustically measured HRTFs of 172 listeners, the estimated parameters were consistent with realistic listener geometry. The outlier removal further improved the goodness-of-fit, particularly for some problematic fits. The comparison with a simpler model that fixed the listener position to the center of the measurement geometry showed a clear advantage of listener position as an additional free model parameter. PMID:24606268

Curvilinear trajectory estimation of a supersonic bullet using ballistic shock wave arrivals at asynchronous acoustic sensor nodes.

PubMed

Lo, Kam W

2017-06-01

The trajectory of a supersonic bullet, which is subjected to drag and gravity, is curvilinear and the supersonic flight of the bullet generates a ballistic shock wave (SW). A model for the differential time of arrival (DTOA) of the SW at a pair of acoustic sensors is derived for a given bullet trajectory, which is fully described by seven parameters including the drag coefficient exponent and ballistic constant of the bullet. Assuming that the drag coefficient exponent is 0.5, the DTOA model is used to develop a nonlinear least-squares (NLS) method to estimate the other six trajectory parameters using DTOA of SW measurements from each node (which comprises a small acoustic sensor array) of an asynchronous sensor network. The position of the shooter and the muzzle speed of the bullet are then determined by tracing the estimated bullet trajectory back to topographic or man-made obstructions on a digital map. The effectiveness of the NLS method is verified using simulated data for different types of real bullets, and the error standard deviations in the parameter estimates are close to the Cramer-Rao lower bounds.

An Application of the H-Function to Curve-Fitting and Density Estimation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-12-01

equations into a model that is linear in its coefficients. Nonlinear least squares estimation is a relatively new area developed to accomodate models which...to converge on a solution (10:9-10). For the simple linear model and when general assump- tions are made, the Gauss-Markov theorem states that the...distribution. For example, if the analyst wants to model the time between arrivals to a queue for a computer simulation, he infers the true probability

Application of the Approximate Bayesian Computation methods in the stochastic estimation of atmospheric contamination parameters for mobile sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopka, Piotr; Wawrzynczak, Anna; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

2016-11-01

In this paper the Bayesian methodology, known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), is applied to the problem of the atmospheric contamination source identification. The algorithm input data are on-line arriving concentrations of the released substance registered by the distributed sensors network. This paper presents the Sequential ABC algorithm in detail and tests its efficiency in estimation of probabilistic distributions of atmospheric release parameters of a mobile contamination source. The developed algorithms are tested using the data from Over-Land Atmospheric Diffusion (OLAD) field tracer experiment. The paper demonstrates estimation of seven parameters characterizing the contamination source, i.e.: contamination source starting position (x,y), the direction of the motion of the source (d), its velocity (v), release rate (q), start time of release (ts) and its duration (td). The online-arriving new concentrations dynamically update the probability distributions of search parameters. The atmospheric dispersion Second-order Closure Integrated PUFF (SCIPUFF) Model is used as the forward model to predict the concentrations at the sensors locations.

Noncommuting observables in quantum detection and estimation theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helstrom, C. W.

1972-01-01

Basing decisions and estimates on simultaneous approximate measurements of noncommuting observables in a quantum receiver is shown to be equivalent to measuring commuting projection operators on a larger Hilbert space than that of the receiver itself. The quantum-mechanical Cramer-Rao inequalities derived from right logarithmic derivatives and symmetrized logarithmic derivatives of the density operator are compared, and it is shown that the latter give superior lower bounds on the error variances of individual unbiased estimates of arrival time and carrier frequency of a coherent signal. For a suitably weighted sum of the error variances of simultaneous estimates of these, the former yield the superior lower bound under some conditions.

14 CFR 91.169 - IFR flight plan: Information required.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... following: (i) For aircraft other than helicopters. For at least 1 hour before and for 1 hour after the... visibility will be at least 3 statute miles. (ii) For helicopters. At the estimated time of arrival and for 1... to the operator, for that airport, the following minima: (i) For aircraft other than helicopters: The...

14 CFR 91.169 - IFR flight plan: Information required.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... following: (i) For aircraft other than helicopters. For at least 1 hour before and for 1 hour after the... visibility will be at least 3 statute miles. (ii) For helicopters. At the estimated time of arrival and for 1... to the operator, for that airport, the following minima: (i) For aircraft other than helicopters: The...

14 CFR 91.169 - IFR flight plan: Information required.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... following: (i) For aircraft other than helicopters. For at least 1 hour before and for 1 hour after the... visibility will be at least 3 statute miles. (ii) For helicopters. At the estimated time of arrival and for 1... to the operator, for that airport, the following minima: (i) For aircraft other than helicopters: The...

14 CFR 91.169 - IFR flight plan: Information required.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... following: (i) For aircraft other than helicopters. For at least 1 hour before and for 1 hour after the... visibility will be at least 3 statute miles. (ii) For helicopters. At the estimated time of arrival and for 1... to the operator, for that airport, the following minima: (i) For aircraft other than helicopters: The...

Navigation with Limited Prior Information Using Time Difference of Arrival Measurements from Signals of Opportunity

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

radiolocation in CDMA cellular systems”. IEEE Communications Magazine, 36(4):38–45, April 1998. 5. Code of Federal Regulations. “AM Broadcast Stations... DS /ENG/05-02. [Online]. Available at http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA442340. 11. Foy, Wade H. “Position-Location Solutions by Taylor-Series Estimation

Calculating shock arrival in expansion tubes and shock tunnels using Bayesian changepoint analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Christopher M.; Bourke, Emily J.; Gildfind, David E.

2018-06-01

To understand the flow conditions generated in expansion tubes and shock tunnels, shock speeds are generally calculated based on shock arrival times at high-frequency wall-mounted pressure transducers. These calculations require that the shock arrival times are obtained accurately. This can be non-trivial for expansion tubes especially because pressure rises may be small and shock speeds high. Inaccurate shock arrival times can be a significant source of uncertainty. To help address this problem, this paper investigates two separate but complimentary techniques. Principally, it proposes using a Bayesian changepoint detection method to automatically calculate shock arrival, potentially reducing error and simplifying the shock arrival finding process. To compliment this, a technique for filtering the raw data without losing the shock arrival time is also presented and investigated. To test the validity of the proposed techniques, tests are performed using both a theoretical step change with different levels of noise and real experimental data. It was found that with conditions added to ensure that a real shock arrival time was found, the Bayesian changepoint analysis method was able to automatically find the shock arrival time, even for noisy signals.

Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Wood, Nathan J.

2015-01-01

Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

Familiarity expands space and contracts time.

PubMed

Jafarpour, Anna; Spiers, Hugo

2017-01-01

When humans draw maps, or make judgments about travel-time, their responses are rarely accurate and are often systematically distorted. Distortion effects on estimating time to arrival and the scale of sketch-maps reveal the nature of mental representation of time and space. Inspired by data from rodent entorhinal grid cells, we predicted that familiarity to an environment would distort representations of the space by expanding the size of it. We also hypothesized that travel-time estimation would be distorted in the same direction as space-size, if time and space rely on the same cognitive map. We asked international students, who had lived at a college in London for 9 months, to sketch a south-up map of their college district, estimate travel-time to destinations within the area, and mark their everyday walking routes. We found that while estimates for sketched space were expanded with familiarity, estimates of the time to travel through the space were contracted with familiarity. Thus, we found dissociable responses to familiarity in representations of time and space. © 2016 The Authors Hippocampus Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors Hippocampus Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility

PubMed Central

Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

UWB Tracking System Design for Lunar/Mars Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ni, Jianjun; Arndt, Dickey; Ngo, Phong; Phan, Chau; Gross, Julia

2006-01-01

This paper describes a design effort for a prototype ultra-wideband (UWB) tracking system that is currently under development at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The system is being studied for use in tracking of lunar/Mars rovers during early exploration missions when satellite navigation systems are not available. The UWB technology is exploited to implement the tracking system due to its properties such as high data rate, fine time resolution, low power spectral density, and multipath immunity. A two-cluster prototype design using commercially available UWB products is proposed to implement the Angle Of Arrival (AOA) tracking methodology in this research effort. An AOA technique using the Time Difference Of Arrival (TDOA) information is utilized for location estimation in the prototype system, not only to exploit the precise time resolution possible with UWB signals, but also to eliminate the need for synchronization between the transmitter and the receiver. After the UWB radio at each cluster is used to obtain the TDOA estimates from the UWB signal sent from the target, the TDOA data is converted to AOA data to find the angle of arrival, assuming this is a far field application. Since the distance between two clusters is known, the target position is computed by a simple triangulation. Simulations show that the average tracking error at a range of 610 meters is 2.7595 meters, less than 0.5% of the tracking range. Outdoor tests to track the SCOUT vehicle (The Science Crew Operations and Utility Testbed) near the Meteor Crater, Flagstaff, Arizona were performed on September 12-13, 2005. The tracking performance was obtained with less than 1% tracking error at ranges up to 2000 feet. No RF interference with on-board GPS, video, voice and telemetry systems was detected. Outdoor tests demonstrated the UWB tracking capability.

Wave-equation migration velocity inversion using passive seismic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witten, B.; Shragge, J. C.

2015-12-01

Seismic monitoring at injection sites (e.g., CO2 sequestration, waste water disposal, hydraulic fracturing) has become an increasingly important tool for hazard identification and avoidance. The information obtained from this data is often limited to seismic event properties (e.g., location, approximate time, moment tensor), the accuracy of which greatly depends on the estimated elastic velocity models. However, creating accurate velocity models from passive array data remains a challenging problem. Common techniques rely on picking arrivals or matching waveforms requiring high signal-to-noise data that is often not available for the magnitude earthquakes observed over injection sites. We present a new method for obtaining elastic velocity information from earthquakes though full-wavefield wave-equation imaging and adjoint-state tomography. The technique exploits the fact that the P- and S-wave arrivals originate at the same time and location in the subsurface. We generate image volumes by back-propagating P- and S-wave data through initial Earth models and then applying a correlation-based extended-imaging condition. Energy focusing away from zero lag in the extended image volume is used as a (penalized) residual in an adjoint-state tomography scheme to update the P- and S-wave velocity models. We use an acousto-elastic approximation to greatly reduce the computational cost. Because the method requires neither an initial source location or origin time estimate nor picking of arrivals, it is suitable for low signal-to-noise datasets, such as microseismic data. Synthetic results show that with a realistic distribution of microseismic sources, P- and S-velocity perturbations can be recovered. Although demonstrated at an oil and gas reservoir scale, the technique can be applied to problems of all scales from geologic core samples to global seismology.

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

PubMed

Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

Seismoelectric field measurements in unconsolidated sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabbel, Wolfgang; Iwanowski-Strahser, Katja; Strahser, Matthias; Dzieran, Laura; Thorwart, Martin

2017-04-01

Seismoelectric (SE) prospecting has the potential of determining hydraulic permeability in situ. However, the SE response of geological interfaces (IR) is influenced also by porosity, saturation and salinity. We present examples of SE surveys of near-surface unconsolidated sediments showing clear IR arrivals from the shallow groundwater table and laterally consistent IR arrivals from interfaces inside the vadoze zone. Theses measurements are complemented by seismic, GPR and geoelectric surveys for constraining bulk porosity, water saturation and salinity. They show that porosity and water content change at the interfaces generating IR arrivals. The combination of these methods enables us to estimate permeability contrast associated with major IR arrivals via numerical modeling of SE waveform amplitudes. In case of the analyzed field example this contrast is estimated to be of the order of 10 within the vadoze zone and of 100 at the aquifer-aquitard interface.

Prognostic Fusion for Uncertainty Reduction

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

Damage estimates are arrived at using sensor information such as oil debris monitoring data as well as vibration data. The method detects the onset of...NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON ( Monitor ) a. REPORT Unclassified b. ABSTRACT Unclassified c . THIS PAGE Unclassified 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT...estimates are arrived at using sensor information such as oil debris monitoring data as well as vibration data. The method detects the onset of

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

Accurate 3-D Profile Extraction of Skull Bone Using an Ultrasound Matrix Array.

PubMed

Hajian, Mehdi; Gaspar, Robert; Maev, Roman Gr

2017-12-01

The present study investigates the feasibility, accuracy, and precision of 3-D profile extraction of the human skull bone using a custom-designed ultrasound matrix transducer in Pulse-Echo. Due to the attenuative scattering properties of the skull, the backscattered echoes from the inner surface of the skull are severely degraded, attenuated, and at some points overlapped. Furthermore, the speed of sound (SOS) in the skull varies significantly in different zones and also from case to case; if considered constant, it introduces significant error to the profile measurement. A new method for simultaneous estimation of the skull profiles and the sound speed value is presented. The proposed method is a two-folded procedure: first, the arrival times of the backscattered echoes from the skull bone are estimated using multi-lag phase delay (MLPD) and modified space alternating generalized expectation maximization (SAGE) algorithms. Next, these arrival times are fed into an adaptive sound speed estimation algorithm to compute the optimal SOS value and subsequently, the skull bone thickness. For quantitative evaluation, the estimated bone phantom thicknesses were compared with the mechanical measurements. The accuracies of the bone thickness measurements using MLPD and modified SAGE algorithms combined with the adaptive SOS estimation were 7.93% and 4.21%, respectively. These values were 14.44% and 10.75% for the autocorrelation and cross-correlation methods. Additionally, the Bland-Altman plots showed the modified SAGE outperformed the other methods with -0.35 and 0.44 mm limits of agreement. No systematic error that could be related to the skull bone thickness was observed for this method.

Design and Performance Evaluation on Ultra-Wideband Time-Of-Arrival 3D Tracking System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ni, Jianjun; Arndt, Dickey; Ngo, Phong; Dusl, John

2012-01-01

A three-dimensional (3D) Ultra-Wideband (UWB) Time--of-Arrival (TOA) tracking system has been studied at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to provide the tracking capability inside the International Space Station (ISS) modules for various applications. One of applications is to locate and report the location where crew experienced possible high level of carbon-dioxide and felt upset. In order to accurately locate those places in a multipath intensive environment like ISS modules, it requires a robust real-time location system (RTLS) which can provide the required accuracy and update rate. A 3D UWB TOA tracking system with two-way ranging has been proposed and studied. The designed system will be tested in the Wireless Habitat Testbed which simulates the ISS module environment. In this presentation, we discuss the 3D TOA tracking algorithm and the performance evaluation based on different tracking baseline configurations. The simulation results show that two configurations of the tracking baseline are feasible. With 100 picoseconds standard deviation (STD) of TOA estimates, the average tracking error 0.2392 feet (about 7 centimeters) can be achieved for configuration Twisted Rectangle while the average tracking error 0.9183 feet (about 28 centimeters) can be achieved for configuration Slightly-Twisted Top Rectangle . The tracking accuracy can be further improved with the improvement of the STD of TOA estimates. With 10 picoseconds STD of TOA estimates, the average tracking error 0.0239 feet (less than 1 centimeter) can be achieved for configuration "Twisted Rectangle".

Nanohertz gravitational wave searches with interferometric pulsar timing experiments.

PubMed

Tinto, Massimo

2011-05-13

We estimate the sensitivity to nano-Hertz gravitational waves of pulsar timing experiments in which two highly stable millisecond pulsars are tracked simultaneously with two neighboring radio telescopes that are referenced to the same timekeeping subsystem (i.e., "the clock"). By taking the difference of the two time-of-arrival residual data streams we can exactly cancel the clock noise in the combined data set, thereby enhancing the sensitivity to gravitational waves. We estimate that, in the band (10(-9)-10(-8))  Hz, this "interferometric" pulsar timing technique can potentially improve the sensitivity to gravitational radiation by almost 2 orders of magnitude over that of single-telescopes. Interferometric pulsar timing experiments could be performed with neighboring pairs of antennas of the NASA's Deep Space Network and the forthcoming large arraying projects.

Localization and cooperative communication methods for cognitive radio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duval, Olivier

We study localization of nearby nodes and cooperative communication for cognitive radios. Cognitive radios sensing their environment to estimate the channel gain between nodes can cooperate and adapt their transmission power to maximize the capacity of the communication between two nodes. We study the end-to-end capacity of a cooperative relaying scheme using orthogonal frequency-division modulation (OFDM) modulation, under power constraints for both the base station and the relay station. The relay uses amplify-and-forward and decode-and-forward cooperative relaying techniques to retransmit messages on a subset of the available subcarriers. The power used in the base station and the relay station transmitters is allocated to maximize the overall system capacity. The subcarrier selection and power allocation are obtained based on convex optimization formulations and an iterative algorithm. Additionally, decode-and-forward relaying schemes are allowed to pair source and relayed subcarriers to increase further the capacity of the system. The proposed techniques outperforms non-selective relaying schemes over a range of relay power budgets. Cognitive radios can be used for opportunistic access of the radio spectrum by detecting spectrum holes left unused by licensed primary users. We introduce a spectrum holes detection approach, which combines blind modulation classification, angle of arrival estimation and number of sources detection. We perform eigenspace analysis to determine the number of sources, and estimate their angles of arrival (AOA). In addition, we classify detected sources as primary or secondary users with their distinct second-orde one-conjugate cyclostationarity features. Extensive simulations carried out indicate that the proposed system identifies and locates individual sources correctly, even at -4 dB signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). In environments with a high density of scatterers, several wireless channels experience nonline-of-sight (NLOS) condition, increasing the localization error, even when the AOA estimate is accurate. We present a real-time localization solver (RTLS) for time-of-arrival (TOA) estimates using ray-tracing methods on the map of the geometry of walls and compare its performance with classical TOA trilateration localization methods. Extensive simulations and field trials for indoor environments show that our method increases the coverage area from 1.9% of the floor to 82.3 % and the accuracy by a 10-fold factor when compared with trilateration. We implemented our ray tracing model in C++ using the CGAL computational geometry algorithm library. We illustrate the real-time property of our RTLS that performs most ray tracing tasks in a preprocessing phase with time and space complexity analyses and profiling of our software.

Some case studies of skewed (and other ab-normal) data distributions arising in low-level environmental research.

PubMed

Currie, L A

2001-07-01

Three general classes of skewed data distributions have been encountered in research on background radiation, chemical and radiochemical blanks, and low levels of 85Kr and 14C in the atmosphere and the cryosphere. The first class of skewed data can be considered to be theoretically, or fundamentally skewed. It is typified by the exponential distribution of inter-arrival times for nuclear counting events for a Poisson process. As part of a study of the nature of low-level (anti-coincidence) Geiger-Muller counter background radiation, tests were performed on the Poisson distribution of counts, the uniform distribution of arrival times, and the exponential distribution of inter-arrival times. The real laboratory system, of course, failed the (inter-arrival time) test--for very interesting reasons, linked to the physics of the measurement process. The second, computationally skewed, class relates to skewness induced by non-linear transformations. It is illustrated by non-linear concentration estimates from inverse calibration, and bivariate blank corrections for low-level 14C-12C aerosol data that led to highly asymmetric uncertainty intervals for the biomass carbon contribution to urban "soot". The third, environmentally, skewed, data class relates to a universal problem for the detection of excursions above blank or baseline levels: namely, the widespread occurrence of ab-normal distributions of environmental and laboratory blanks. This is illustrated by the search for fundamental factors that lurk behind skewed frequency distributions of sulfur laboratory blanks and 85Kr environmental baselines, and the application of robust statistical procedures for reliable detection decisions in the face of skewed isotopic carbon procedural blanks with few degrees of freedom.

Doses from external irradiation to Marshall Islanders from Bikini and Enewetak nuclear weapons tests.

PubMed

Bouville, André; Beck, Harold L; Simon, Steven L

2010-08-01

Annual doses from external irradiation resulting from exposure to fallout from the 65 atmospheric nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands at Bikini and Enewetak between 1946 and 1958 have been estimated for the first time for Marshallese living on all inhabited atolls. All tests that deposited fallout on any of the 23 inhabited atolls or separate reef islands have been considered. The methodology used to estimate the radiation doses at the inhabited atolls is based on test- and location-specific radiation survey data, deposition density estimates of 137Cs, and fallout times-of-arrival provided in a companion paper (Beck et al.), combined with information on the radionuclide composition of the fallout at various times after each test. These estimates of doses from external irradiation have been combined with corresponding estimates of doses from internal irradiation, given in a companion paper (Simon et al.), to assess the cancer risks among the Marshallese population (Land et al.) resulting from exposure to radiation from the nuclear weapons tests.

Simulation-based validation and arrival-time correction for Patlak analyses of Perfusion-CT scans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bredno, Jörg; Hom, Jason; Schneider, Thomas; Wintermark, Max

2009-02-01

Blood-brain-barrier (BBB) breakdown is a hypothesized mechanism for hemorrhagic transformation in acute stroke. The Patlak analysis of a Perfusion Computed Tomography (PCT) scan measures the BBB permeability, but the method yields higher estimates when applied to the first pass of the contrast bolus compared to a delayed phase. We present a numerical phantom that simulates vascular and parenchymal time-attenuation curves to determine the validity of permeability measurements obtained with different acquisition protocols. A network of tubes represents the major cerebral arteries ipsi- and contralateral to an ischemic event. These tubes branch off into smaller segments that represent capillary beds. Blood flow in the phantom is freely defined and simulated as non-Newtonian tubular flow. Diffusion of contrast in the vessels and permeation through vessel walls is part of the simulation. The phantom allows us to compare the results of a permeability measurement to the simulated vessel wall status. A Patlak analysis reliably detects areas with BBB breakdown for acquisitions of 240s duration, whereas results obtained from the first pass are biased in areas of reduced blood flow. Compensating for differences in contrast arrival times reduces this bias and gives good estimates of BBB permeability for PCT acquisitions of 90-150s duration.

Power in the bucket and angle of arrival modelling in the presence of an airborne platform-induced turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velluet, Marie-Thérèse

2017-10-01

In the framework of a European collaborative research project called ALWS (Airborne platform effects on lasers and Warning Sensors), the effects of platform-related turbulence on MAWS (missile approach warning systems) and DIRCM (directed infrared countermeasures) performance are investigated. Field trials have been conducted to study the turbulence effects around a hovering helicopter and behind a turboprop aircraft on the ground, with engines running. The time dependence of the power in the bucket and the amplitude of the angle of arrival have been characterized during the trial. Temporal spectra of these two parameters present an asymptotic behavior typical of optical beams propagating through developed turbulence (Kolmogorov). Based on the formalism developed in the case of propagation through atmospheric turbulence, we have first estimated turbulence strength and wind velocity inside plume for different flight conditions. We have then proposed an approach to simulate times series of these two quantities in the same conditions. These simulated time series have been compared with the recorded data to assess their validity domain. This model will be integrated in a simulator to estimate the impact of the turbulence induced by the platform and calculate the system performance. In this model dedicated to plume and downwash effects, aero-optical effects are not taken into account.

Estimating gas kick arrival to better manage surface flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merryman, J.

1997-06-01

There are many quality, expertly designed programs for teaching rig crews prevention and control of well kicks. Much time and money has been spent training rig crews for procedures and methods to avoid kicks, and what to do if you have one, even though all accepted practices were followed. One false/bad result from this training is that individuals have come away from this training believing that once a gas kick is circulated through the choke, all problems are simple and manageable, i.e., the danger has passed. What you do with gas once it is downstream of the choke has notmore » been given enough emphasis in some training programs, including the one the author is involved in. This article, prepared from experiences on actual rig locations in Wyoming and Argentina, and developed for well control training in Parker Drilling Co.`s Training Center, Odessa, Texas, describes a method for estimating the time, in pump strokes and/or minutes, for a gas kick to reach surface. Reducing pump strokes (circulating flowrate) and knowing available time to gas kick arrival allows the crew to prepare surface handling equipment. Common misconceptions about gas handling and potential resulting problems are noted. An example calculation describes the calculation procedure.« less

A multi-band spectral subtraction-based algorithm for real-time noise cancellation applied to gunshot acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, António L. L.; Holm, Sverre; Gudvangen, Sigmund; Otterlei, Ragnvald

2013-06-01

Acoustical sniper positioning is based on the detection and direction-of-arrival estimation of the shockwave and the muzzle blast acoustical signals. In real-life situations, the detection and direction-of-arrival estimation processes is usually performed under the influence of background noise sources, e.g., vehicles noise, and might result in non-negligible inaccuracies than can affect the system performance and reliability negatively, specially when detecting the muzzle sound under long range distance and absorbing terrains. This paper introduces a multi-band spectral subtraction based algorithm for real-time noise reduction, applied to gunshot acoustical signals. The ballistic shockwave and the muzzle blast signals exhibit distinct frequency contents that are affected differently by additive noise. In most real situations, the noise component is colored and a multi-band spectral subtraction approach for noise reduction contributes to reducing the presence of artifacts in denoised signals. The proposed algorithm is tested using a dataset generated by combining signals from real gunshots and real vehicle noise. The noise component was generated using a steel tracked military tank running on asphalt and includes, therefore, the sound from the vehicle engine, which varies slightly in frequency over time according to the engine's rpm, and the sound from the steel tracks as the vehicle moves.

Limiting the Effects of Earthquake Shaking on Gravitational-Wave Interferometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, M. R.; Earle, P. S.; Guy, M. R.; Harms, J.; Coughlin, M.; Biscans, S.; Buchanan, C.; Coughlin, E.; Fee, J.; Mukund, N.

2016-12-01

Second-generation ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to high-amplitude waves from teleseismic events, which can cause astronomical detectors to fall out of mechanical lock (lockloss). This causes the data to be useless for gravitational wave detection around the time of the seismic arrivals and for several hours thereafter while the detector stabilizes enough to return to the locked state. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining lock even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Hypocenter and magnitude information is typically available within 5 to 20 minutes of the origin time of significant earthquakes, generally before the arrival of high-amplitude waves from these teleseisms at LIGO. These alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational wave detectors. In general, 94% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal with about 90% of the events falling within a factor of 2 of the final predicted value. By using a Machine Learning Algorithm, we develop a lockloss prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could save lockloss from 40-100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.

Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Frazier, Tim G.

2017-01-01

Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.

Particle detection and non-detection in a quantum time of arrival measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sombillo, Denny Lane B., E-mail: dsombillo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Galapon, Eric A.

2016-01-15

The standard time-of-arrival distribution cannot reproduce both the temporal and the spatial profile of the modulus squared of the time-evolved wave function for an arbitrary initial state. In particular, the time-of-arrival distribution gives a non-vanishing probability even if the wave function is zero at a given point for all values of time. This poses a problem in the standard formulation of quantum mechanics where one quantizes a classical observable and uses its spectral resolution to calculate the corresponding distribution. In this work, we show that the modulus squared of the time-evolved wave function is in fact contained in one ofmore » the degenerate eigenfunctions of the quantized time-of-arrival operator. This generalizes our understanding of quantum arrival phenomenon where particle detection is not a necessary requirement, thereby providing a direct link between time-of-arrival quantization and the outcomes of the two-slit experiment. -- Highlights: •The time-evolved position density is contained in the standard TOA distribution. •Particle may quantum mechanically arrive at a given point without being detected. •The eigenstates of the standard TOA operator are linked to the two-slit experiment.« less

Eavesdropping on the Arctic: Automated bioacoustics reveal dynamics in songbird breeding phenology

PubMed Central

Ellis, Daniel P. W.; Pérez, Jonathan H.; Wingfield, John C.; Boelman, Natalie T.

2018-01-01

Bioacoustic networks could vastly expand the coverage of wildlife monitoring to complement satellite observations of climate and vegetation. This approach would enable global-scale understanding of how climate change influences phenomena such as migratory timing of avian species. The enormous data sets that autonomous recorders typically generate demand automated analyses that remain largely undeveloped. We devised automated signal processing and machine learning approaches to estimate dates on which songbird communities arrived at arctic breeding grounds. Acoustically estimated dates agreed well with those determined via traditional surveys and were strongly related to the landscape’s snow-free dates. We found that environmental conditions heavily influenced daily variation in songbird vocal activity, especially before egg laying. Our novel approaches demonstrate that variation in avian migratory arrival can be detected autonomously. Large-scale deployment of this innovation in wildlife monitoring would enable the coverage necessary to assess and forecast changes in bird migration in the face of climate change. PMID:29938220

Forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway with neural networks.

PubMed

Xie, Mei-Quan; Li, Xia-Miao; Zhou, Wen-Liang; Fu, Yan-Bing

2014-01-01

Short-term passenger flow forecasting is an important component of transportation systems. The forecasting result can be applied to support transportation system operation and management such as operation planning and revenue management. In this paper, a divide-and-conquer method based on neural network and origin-destination (OD) matrix estimation is developed to forecast the short-term passenger flow in high-speed railway system. There are three steps in the forecasting method. Firstly, the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station are obtained from historical passenger flow data, which are OD matrices in this paper. Secondly, short-term passenger flow forecasting of the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station based on neural network is realized. At last, the OD matrices in short-term time are obtained with an OD matrix estimation method. The experimental results indicate that the proposed divide-and-conquer method performs well in forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway.

Application of maximum likelihood methods to laser Thomson scattering measurements of low density plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Washeleski, Robert L.; Meyer, Edmond J. IV; King, Lyon B.

2013-10-15

Laser Thomson scattering (LTS) is an established plasma diagnostic technique that has seen recent application to low density plasmas. It is difficult to perform LTS measurements when the scattered signal is weak as a result of low electron number density, poor optical access to the plasma, or both. Photon counting methods are often implemented in order to perform measurements in these low signal conditions. However, photon counting measurements performed with photo-multiplier tubes are time consuming and multi-photon arrivals are incorrectly recorded. In order to overcome these shortcomings a new data analysis method based on maximum likelihood estimation was developed. Themore » key feature of this new data processing method is the inclusion of non-arrival events in determining the scattered Thomson signal. Maximum likelihood estimation and its application to Thomson scattering at low signal levels is presented and application of the new processing method to LTS measurements performed in the plume of a 2-kW Hall-effect thruster is discussed.« less

Application of maximum likelihood methods to laser Thomson scattering measurements of low density plasmas.

PubMed

Washeleski, Robert L; Meyer, Edmond J; King, Lyon B

2013-10-01

Laser Thomson scattering (LTS) is an established plasma diagnostic technique that has seen recent application to low density plasmas. It is difficult to perform LTS measurements when the scattered signal is weak as a result of low electron number density, poor optical access to the plasma, or both. Photon counting methods are often implemented in order to perform measurements in these low signal conditions. However, photon counting measurements performed with photo-multiplier tubes are time consuming and multi-photon arrivals are incorrectly recorded. In order to overcome these shortcomings a new data analysis method based on maximum likelihood estimation was developed. The key feature of this new data processing method is the inclusion of non-arrival events in determining the scattered Thomson signal. Maximum likelihood estimation and its application to Thomson scattering at low signal levels is presented and application of the new processing method to LTS measurements performed in the plume of a 2-kW Hall-effect thruster is discussed.

Analysis of the equilibrium trip cost accounting for the fuel cost in a single-lane traffic system without late arrival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Wang, Tao; Chen, Liang; Huang, Hai-Jun

2018-01-01

In this paper, we introduce the fuel cost into each commuter's trip cost, define a new trip cost without late arrival and its corresponding equilibrium state, and use a car-following model to explore the impacts of the fuel cost on each commuter's departure time, departure interval, arrival time, arrival interval, traveling time, early arrival time and trip cost at the above equilibrium state. The numerical results show that considering the fuel cost in each commuter's trip cost has positive impacts on his trip cost and fuel cost, and the traffic situation in the system without late arrival, i.e., each commuter should explicitly consider the fuel cost in his trip cost.

A Nonparametric Approach to Automated S-Wave Picking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawles, C.; Thurber, C. H.

2014-12-01

Although a number of very effective P-wave automatic pickers have been developed over the years, automatic picking of S waves has remained more challenging. Most automatic pickers take a parametric approach, whereby some characteristic function (CF), e.g. polarization or kurtosis, is determined from the data and the pick is estimated from the CF. We have adopted a nonparametric approach, estimating the pick directly from the waveforms. For a particular waveform to be auto-picked, the method uses a combination of similarity to a set of seismograms with known S-wave arrivals and dissimilarity to a set of seismograms that do not contain S-wave arrivals. Significant effort has been made towards dealing with the problem of S-to-P conversions. We have evaluated the effectiveness of our method by testing it on multiple sets of microearthquake seismograms with well-determined S-wave arrivals for several areas around the world, including fault zones and volcanic regions. In general, we find that the results from our auto-picker are consistent with reviewed analyst picks 90% of the time at the 0.2 s level and 80% of the time at the 0.1 s level, or better. For most of the large datasets we have analyzed, our auto-picker also makes far more S-wave picks than were made previously by analysts. We are using these enlarged sets of high-quality S-wave picks to refine tomographic inversions for these areas, resulting in substantial improvement in the quality of the S-wave images. We will show examples from New Zealand, Hawaii, and California.

Air pollution from aircraft operations at San Jose Municipal Airport, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schairer, E. T.

1978-01-01

The amount of air pollution discharged by arriving and departing aircraft at the San Jose Municipal Airport was estimated. These estimates were made for each one hour interval of a summer weekday in 1977. The contributions of both general aviation (personal and business aircraft) and certified air carriers (scheduled airliners) were considered. The locations at which the pollutants were discharged were estimated by approximating the flight paths of arriving and departing aircraft. Three types of pollutants were considered: carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and oxides of nitrogen.

Developing and Validating Path-Dependent Uncertainty Estimates for use with the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begnaud, M. L.; Anderson, D. N.; Phillips, W. S.; Myers, S. C.; Ballard, S.

2016-12-01

The Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) tomography model has been developed to improve travel time predictions for regional phases (Pn, Sn, Pg, Lg) in order to increase seismic location accuracy, especially for explosion monitoring. The RSTT model is specifically designed to exploit regional phases for location, especially when combined with teleseismic arrivals. The latest RSTT model (version 201404um) has been released (http://www.sandia.gov/rstt). Travel time uncertainty estimates for RSTT are determined using one-dimensional (1D), distance-dependent error models, that have the benefit of being very fast to use in standard location algorithms, but do not account for path-dependent variations in error, and structural inadequacy of the RSTTT model (e.g., model error). Although global in extent, the RSTT tomography model is only defined in areas where data exist. A simple 1D error model does not accurately model areas where RSTT has not been calibrated. We are developing and validating a new error model for RSTT phase arrivals by mathematically deriving this multivariate model directly from a unified model of RSTT embedded into a statistical random effects model that captures distance, path and model error effects. An initial method developed is a two-dimensional path-distributed method using residuals. The goals for any RSTT uncertainty method are for it to be both readily useful for the standard RSTT user as well as improve travel time uncertainty estimates for location. We have successfully tested using the new error model for Pn phases and will demonstrate the method and validation of the error model for Sn, Pg, and Lg phases.

Updating the orbital ephemeris of the dipping source XB 1254-690 and the distance to the source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gambino, Angelo F.; Iaria, Rosario; Di Salvo, Tiziana; Matranga, Marco; Burderi, Luciano; Pintore, Fabio; Riggio, Alessandro; Sanna, Andrea

2017-09-01

XB 1254-690 is a dipping low mass X-ray binary system hosting a neutron star and showing type I X-ray bursts. We aim at obtaining a more accurate orbital ephemeris and at constraining the orbital period derivative of the system for the first time. In addition, we want to better constrain the distance to the source in order to locate the system in a well defined evolutive scenario. We apply, for the first time, an orbital timing technique to XB 1254-690, using the arrival times of the dips present in the light curves that have been collected during 26 yr of X-ray pointed observations acquired from different space missions. We estimate the dip arrival times using a statistical method that weights the count-rate inside the dip with respect to the level of persistent emission outside the dip. We fit the obtained delays as a function of the orbital cycles both with a linear and a quadratic function. We infer the orbital ephemeris of XB 1254-690, improving the accuracy of the orbital period with respect to previous estimates. We infer a mass of M 2 = 0.42 ± 0.04 M ʘ for the donor star, in agreement with estimations already present in literature, assuming that the star is in thermal equilibrium while it transfers part of its mass via the inner Lagrangian point, and assuming a neutron star mass of 1.4 M ʘ. Using these assumptions, we also constrain the distance to the source, finding a value of 7.6 ± 0.8 kpc. Finally, we discuss the evolution of the system, suggesting that it is compatible with a conservative mass transfer driven by magnetic braking.

Methodology to Define Delivery Accuracy Under Current Day ATC Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, Shivanjli; Robinson, John E., III

2015-01-01

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a NextGen environment, ground- based sequencing and scheduling functions have been developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling algorithms as well as tools are designed to aid air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy. The ground systems being developed will support the management of aircraft to their Scheduled Times of Arrival (STAs) at flow-constrained meter points. This paper presents a methodology for determining the undelayed delivery accuracy for current day air traffic control operations. This new method analyzes the undelayed delivery accuracy at meter points in order to understand changes of desired flow rates as well as enabling definition of metrics that will allow near-future ground automation tools to successfully achieve desired separation at the meter points. This enables aircraft to meet their STAs while performing high precision arrivals. The research presents a possible implementation that would allow delivery performance of current tools to be estimated and delivery accuracy requirements for future tools to be defined, which allows analysis of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) accuracy for Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) and the FAA's Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). TMA is a deployed system that generates scheduled time-of-arrival constraints for en- route air traffic controllers in the US. This new method of automated analysis provides a repeatable evaluation of the delay metrics for current day traffic, new releases of TMA, implementation of different tools, and across different airspace environments. This method utilizes a wide set of data from the Operational TMA-TBFM Repository (OTTR) system, which processes raw data collected by the FAA from operational TMA systems at all ARTCCs in the nation. The OTTR system generates daily reports concerning ATC status, intent and actions. Due to its availability, ease of use, and vast collection of data across several airspaces it was determined that the OTTR data set would be the best method to utilize moving forward with this analysis. The particular variables needed for further analysis were determined along with the necessary OTTR reports, by working closely with the repository team additional analysis reports were developed that provided key ETA and STA information at the freeze horizon. One major benefit of the OTTR data is that using the correct reports the data across several airports could be analyzed over large periods of time. The OTTR data processes the TBFM data daily and is stored in various formats across several airspaces. This allowed us to develop our own parsing methods and raw data processing that would not rely on other computationally expensive tools that perform more in depth analysis of similar sets of data. The majority of this work consisted of the development of the ability to filter flights to create a subset of flights that could be considered undelayed, which is defined as a flight at the freeze horizon with an ETA and STA difference that was minimal or close to zero. This was a broad method that allowed the consideration of a large data set which consisted of all the traffic across a two month period in 2013, the hottest and coldest months, arriving into four airports: George Bush Intercontinental, Denver International, Los Angeles International, and Phoenix Sky Harbor.

Fast Noncircular 2D-DOA Estimation for Rectangular Planar Array

PubMed Central

Xu, Lingyun; Wen, Fangqing

2017-01-01

A novel scheme is proposed for direction finding with uniform rectangular planar array. First, the characteristics of noncircular signals and Euler’s formula are exploited to construct a new real-valued rectangular array data. Then, the rotational invariance relations for real-valued signal space are depicted in a new way. Finally the real-valued propagator method is utilized to estimate the pairing two-dimensional direction of arrival (2D-DOA). The proposed algorithm provides better angle estimation performance and can discern more sources than the 2D propagator method. At the same time, it has very close angle estimation performance to the noncircular propagator method (NC-PM) with reduced computational complexity. PMID:28417926

Using Dynamic Contrast Enhanced MRI to Quantitatively Characterize Maternal Vascular Organization in the Primate Placenta

PubMed Central

Frias, A.E.; Schabel, M.C.; Roberts, V.H.J.; Tudorica, A.; Grigsby, P.L.; Oh, K.Y.; Kroenke, C. D.

2015-01-01

Purpose The maternal microvasculature of the primate placenta is organized into 10-20 perfusion domains that are functionally optimized to facilitate nutrient exchange to support fetal growth. This study describes a dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) method for identifying vascular domains, and quantifying maternal blood flow in them. Methods A rhesus macaque on the 133rd day of pregnancy (G133, term=165 days) underwent Doppler ultrasound (US) procedures, DCE-MRI, and Cesarean-section delivery. Serial T1-weighted images acquired throughout intravenous injection of a contrast reagent (CR) bolus were analyzed to obtain CR arrival time maps of the placenta. Results Watershed segmentation of the arrival time map identified 16 perfusion domains. The number and location of these domains corresponded to anatomical cotyledonary units observed following delivery. Analysis of the CR wave front through each perfusion domain enabled determination of volumetric flow, which ranged from 9.03 to 44.9 mL/sec (25.2 ± 10.3 mL/sec). These estimates are supported by Doppler US results. Conclusions The DCE-MRI analysis described here provides quantitative estimates of the number of maternal perfusion domains in a primate placenta, and estimates flow within each domain. Anticipated extensions of this technique are to the study placental function in nonhuman primate models of obstetric complications. PMID:24753177

Measuring Time-of-Flight in an Ultrasonic LPS System Using Generalized Cross-Correlation

PubMed Central

Villladangos, José Manuel; Ureña, Jesús; García, Juan Jesús; Mazo, Manuel; Hernández, Álvaro; Jiménez, Ana; Ruíz, Daniel; De Marziani, Carlos

2011-01-01

In this article, a time-of-flight detection technique in the frequency domain is described for an ultrasonic Local Positioning System (LPS) based on encoded beacons. Beacon transmissions have been synchronized and become simultaneous by means of the DS-CDMA (Direct-Sequence Code Division Multiple Access) technique. Every beacon has been associated to a 255-bit Kasami code. The detection of signal arrival instant at the receiver, from which the distance to each beacon can be obtained, is based on the application of the Generalized Cross-Correlation (GCC), by using the cross-spectral density between the received signal and the sequence to be detected. Prior filtering to enhance the frequency components around the carrier frequency (40 kHz) has improved estimations when obtaining the correlation function maximum, which implies an improvement in distance measurement precision. Positioning has been achieved by using hyperbolic trilateration, based on the Time Differences of Arrival (TDOA) between a reference beacon and the others. PMID:22346645

Measuring time-of-flight in an ultrasonic LPS system using generalized cross-correlation.

PubMed

Villladangos, José Manuel; Ureña, Jesús; García, Juan Jesús; Mazo, Manuel; Hernández, Alvaro; Jiménez, Ana; Ruíz, Daniel; De Marziani, Carlos

2011-01-01

In this article, a time-of-flight detection technique in the frequency domain is described for an ultrasonic local positioning system (LPS) based on encoded beacons. Beacon transmissions have been synchronized and become simultaneous by means of the DS-CDMA (direct-sequence code Division multiple access) technique. Every beacon has been associated to a 255-bit Kasami code. The detection of signal arrival instant at the receiver, from which the distance to each beacon can be obtained, is based on the application of the generalized cross-correlation (GCC), by using the cross-spectral density between the received signal and the sequence to be detected. Prior filtering to enhance the frequency components around the carrier frequency (40 kHz) has improved estimations when obtaining the correlation function maximum, which implies an improvement in distance measurement precision. Positioning has been achieved by using hyperbolic trilateration, based on the time differences of arrival (TDOA) between a reference beacon and the others.

Improvement of real-time seismic magnitude estimation by combining seismic and geodetic instrumentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

2017-12-01

Rapid seismic magnitude assessment is a top priority for earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. For the largest earthquakes, seismic instrumentation tends to underestimate the magnitude, leading to an insufficient early warning, particularly in the case of tsunami evacuation orders. GPS instrumentation provides more accurate magnitude estimations using near-field stations, but isn't sensitive enough to detect the first seismic wave arrivals, thereby limiting solution speed. By optimally combining collocated seismic and GPS instruments, we demonstrate improved solution speed of earthquake magnitude for the largest seismic events. We present a real-time implementation of magnitude-scaling relations that adapts to consider the length of the recording, reflecting the observed evolution of ground motion with time.

The prelaying interval of emperor geese on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hupp, Jerry W.; Schmutz, J.A.; Ely, Craig R.

2006-01-01

We marked 136 female Emperor Geese (Chen canagica) in western Alaska with VHF or satellite (PTT) transmitters from 1999 to 2003 to monitor their spring arrival and nest initiation dates on the Yukon Delta, and to estimate prelaying interval lengths once at the nesting area. Ninety-two females with functional transmitters returned to the Yukon Delta in the spring after they were marked, and we located the nests of 35 of these individuals. Prelaying intervals were influenced by when snow melted in the spring and individual arrival dates on the Yukon Delta. The median prelaying interval was 15 days (range = 12-19 days) in a year when snow melted relatively late, and 11 days (range = 4-16 days) in two warmer years when snow melted earlier. In years when snow melted earlier, prelaying intervals of <12 days for 11 of 15 females suggested they initiated rapid follicle development on spring staging areas. The prelaying interval declined by approximately 0.4 days and nest initiation date increased approximately 0.5 days for each day a female delayed her arrival. Thus, females that arrived first on the Yukon Delta had prelaying intervals up to four days longer, yet they nested up to five days earlier, than females that arrived last. The proximity of spring staging areas on the Alaska Peninsula to nesting areas on the Yukon Delta may enable Emperor Geese to alter timing of follicle development depending on annual conditions, and to invest nutrients acquired from both areas in eggs during their formation. Plasticity in timing of follicle development is likely advantageous in a variable environment where melting of snow cover in the spring can vary by 2-3 weeks annually. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

The wavefield of acoustic logging in a cased-hole with a single casing - Part I: a monopole tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hua; Fehler, Michael

2018-01-01

The bonding quality of the seal formed by the cement or collapse material between casing and formation rock is critical for the hydraulic isolation of reservoir layers with shallow aquifers, production and environmental safety, and plug and abandonment issues. Acoustic logging is a very good tool for evaluating the condition of the bond between different interfaces. The understanding of the acoustic logging wavefields in wells with single casing is still incomplete. We use a 3-D finite difference method to simulate wireline monopole wavefields in a single cased borehole with different bonding conditions at two locations: (1) between the cement and casing and (2) between the cement and formation. Pressure snapshots and waveforms for different models are shown, which allow us to better understand the wave propagation. Modal dispersion curves and data processing methods such as velocity-time semblance and dispersion analysis facilitate the identification of propagation modes in the different models. We find that the P wave is submerged in the casing modes and the S wave has poor coherency when the cement is replaced with fluid. The casing modes are strong when cement next to the casing is partially or fully replaced with fluid. The amplitude of these casing modes can be used to determine the bonding condition of the interface between casing and cement. However, the limited variation of the amplitude with fluid thickness means that amplitude measurements may lead to an ambiguous interpretation. When the cement next to the formation is partially replaced with fluid, the modes propagate in the combination of steel casing and cement and the velocities are highly dependent on the cement thickness. However, if the cement thickness is large (more than 2/3 of the annulus between casing and rock), the arrival time of the first arrival approximates that of the formation compressional wave when cement is good. It would highly likely that an analyst could misjudge cement quality because the amplitudes of these modes are very small and their arrival times are very near to the formation P arrival time. It is possible to use the amplitude to estimate the thickness of the cement sheath because the variation of amplitude with thickness is strong. While the Stoneley mode (ST1) propagates in the borehole fluid, a slow Stoneley mode (ST2) appears when there is a fluid column in the annulus between the casing and formation rock. The velocity of ST2 is sensitive to the total thickness of the fluid column in the annulus independent of the location of the fluid in the casing annulus. We propose a full waveform method, which includes the utilization of the amplitude of the first arrival and also the velocity of the ST2 wave, to estimate the bonding condition of multiple interfaces. These two measurements provide more information than the current method that uses only the first arrival to evaluate the bonding interfa next to the casing.

Carrying Capacity and Colonization Dynamics of Curvibacter in the Hydra Host Habitat

PubMed Central

Wein, Tanita; Dagan, Tal; Fraune, Sebastian; Bosch, Thomas C. G.; Reusch, Thorsten B. H.; Hülter, Nils F.

2018-01-01

Most eukaryotic species are colonized by a microbial community – the microbiota – that is acquired during early life stages and is critical to host development and health. Much research has focused on the microbiota biodiversity during the host life, however, empirical data on the basic ecological principles that govern microbiota assembly is lacking. Here we quantify the contribution of colonizer order, arrival time and colonization history to microbiota assembly on a host. We established the freshwater polyp Hydra vulgaris and its dominant colonizer Curvibacter as a model system that enables the visualization and quantification of colonizer population size at the single cell resolution, in vivo, in real time. We estimate the carrying capacity of a single Hydra polyp as 2 × 105 Curvibacter cells, which is robust among individuals and time. Colonization experiments reveal a clear priority effect of first colonizers that depends on arrival time and colonization history. First arriving colonizers achieve a numerical advantage over secondary colonizers within a short time lag of 24 h. Furthermore, colonizers primed for the Hydra habitat achieve a numerical advantage in the absence of a time lag. These results follow the theoretical expectations for any bacterial habitat with a finite carrying capacity. Thus, Hydra colonization and succession processes are largely determined by the habitat occupancy over time and Curvibacter colonization history. Our experiments provide empirical data on the basic steps of host-associated microbiota establishment – the colonization stage. The presented approach supplies a framework for studying habitat characteristics and colonization dynamics within the host–microbe setting. PMID:29593687

Ultrawideband asynchronous tracking system and method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arndt, G. Dickey (Inventor); Ngo, Phong H. (Inventor); Phan, Chau T. (Inventor); Gross, Julia A. (Inventor); Ni, Jianjun (Inventor); Dusl, John (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A passive tracking system is provided with a plurality of ultrawideband (UWB) receivers that is asynchronous with respect to a UWB transmitter. A geometry of the tracking system may utilize a plurality of clusters with each cluster comprising a plurality of antennas. Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) may be determined for the antennas in each cluster and utilized to determine Angle of Arrival (AOA) based on a far field assumption regarding the geometry. Parallel software communication sockets may be established with each of the plurality of UWB receivers. Transfer of waveform data may be processed by alternately receiving packets of waveform data from each UWB receiver. Cross Correlation Peak Detection (CCPD) is utilized to estimate TDOA information to reduce errors in a noisy, multipath environment.

Blind test of methods for obtaining 2-D near-surface seismic velocity models from first-arrival traveltimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zelt, Colin A.; Haines, Seth; Powers, Michael H.; Sheehan, Jacob; Rohdewald, Siegfried; Link, Curtis; Hayashi, Koichi; Zhao, Don; Zhou, Hua-wei; Burton, Bethany L.; Petersen, Uni K.; Bonal, Nedra D.; Doll, William E.

2013-01-01

Seismic refraction methods are used in environmental and engineering studies to image the shallow subsurface. We present a blind test of inversion and tomographic refraction analysis methods using a synthetic first-arrival-time dataset that was made available to the community in 2010. The data are realistic in terms of the near-surface velocity model, shot-receiver geometry and the data's frequency and added noise. Fourteen estimated models were determined by ten participants using eight different inversion algorithms, with the true model unknown to the participants until it was revealed at a session at the 2011 SAGEEP meeting. The estimated models are generally consistent in terms of their large-scale features, demonstrating the robustness of refraction data inversion in general, and the eight inversion algorithms in particular. When compared to the true model, all of the estimated models contain a smooth expression of its two main features: a large offset in the bedrock and the top of a steeply dipping low-velocity fault zone. The estimated models do not contain a subtle low-velocity zone and other fine-scale features, in accord with conventional wisdom. Together, the results support confidence in the reliability and robustness of modern refraction inversion and tomographic methods.

Multiple-Event Seismic Location Using the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, S. C.; Johannesson, G.; Hanley, W.

2005-12-01

We develop a new multiple-event location algorithm (MCMCloc) that utilizes the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Unlike most inverse methods, the MCMC approach produces a suite of solutions, each of which is consistent with observations and prior estimates of data and model uncertainties. Model parameters in MCMCloc consist of event hypocenters, and travel-time predictions. Data are arrival time measurements and phase assignments. Posteriori estimates of event locations, path corrections, pick errors, and phase assignments are made through analysis of the posteriori suite of acceptable solutions. Prior uncertainty estimates include correlations between travel-time predictions, correlations between measurement errors, the probability of misidentifying one phase for another, and the probability of spurious data. Inclusion of prior constraints on location accuracy allows direct utilization of ground-truth locations or well-constrained location parameters (e.g. from InSAR) that aid in the accuracy of the solution. Implementation of a correlation structure for travel-time predictions allows MCMCloc to operate over arbitrarily large geographic areas. Transition in behavior between a multiple-event locator for tightly clustered events and a single-event locator for solitary events is controlled by the spatial correlation of travel-time predictions. We test the MCMC locator on a regional data set of Nevada Test Site nuclear explosions. Event locations and origin times are known for these events, allowing us to test the features of MCMCloc using a high-quality ground truth data set. Preliminary tests suggest that MCMCloc provides excellent relative locations, often outperforming traditional multiple-event location algorithms, and excellent absolute locations are attained when constraints from one or more ground truth event are included. When phase assignments are switched, we find that MCMCloc properly corrects the error when predicted arrival times are separated by several seconds. In cases where the predicted arrival times are within the combined uncertainty of prediction and measurement errors, MCMCloc determines the probability of one or the other phase assignment and propagates this uncertainty into all model parameters. We find that MCMCloc is a promising method for simultaneously locating large, geographically distributed data sets. Because we incorporate prior knowledge on many parameters, MCMCloc is ideal for combining trusted data with data of unknown reliability. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48, Contribution UCRL-ABS-215048

Linking phenological events in migratory passerines with a changing climate: 50 years in the Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania.

PubMed

McDermott, Molly E; DeGroote, Lucas W

2017-01-01

Advanced timing of both seasonal migration and reproduction in birds has been strongly associated with a warming climate for many bird species. Phenological responses to climate linking these stages may ultimately impact fitness. We analyzed five decades of banding data from 17 migratory bird species to investigate 1) how spring arrival related to timing of breeding, 2) if the interval between arrival and breeding has changed with increasing spring temperatures, and 3) whether arrival timing or breeding timing best predicted local productivity. Four of 17 species, all mid- to long-distance migrants, hatched young earlier in years when migrants arrived earlier to the breeding grounds (~1:1 day advancement). The interval between arrival on breeding grounds and appearance of juveniles shortened with warmer spring temperatures for 12 species (1-6 days for every 1°C increase) and over time for seven species (1-8 days per decade), suggesting that some migratory passerines adapt to climate change by laying more quickly after arrival or reducing the time from laying to fledging. We found more support for the former, that the rate of reproductive advancement was higher than that for arrival in warm years. Timing of spring arrival and breeding were both poor predictors of avian productivity for most migrants analyzed. Nevertheless, we found evidence that fitness benefits may occur from shifts to earlier spring arrival for the multi-brooded Song Sparrow. Our results uniquely demonstrate that co-occurring avian species are phenologically plastic in their response to climate change on their breeding grounds. If migrants continue to show a weaker response to temperatures during migration than breeding, and the window between arrival and optimal breeding shortens further, biological constraints to plasticity may limit the ability of species to adapt successfully to future warming.

The effect of concurrent hand movement on estimated time to contact in a prediction motion task.

PubMed

Zheng, Ran; Maraj, Brian K V

2018-04-27

In many activities, we need to predict the arrival of an occluded object. This action is called prediction motion or motion extrapolation. Previous researchers have found that both eye tracking and the internal clocking model are involved in the prediction motion task. Additionally, it is reported that concurrent hand movement facilitates the eye tracking of an externally generated target in a tracking task, even if the target is occluded. The present study examined the effect of concurrent hand movement on the estimated time to contact in a prediction motion task. We found different (accurate/inaccurate) concurrent hand movements had the opposite effect on the eye tracking accuracy and estimated TTC in the prediction motion task. That is, the accurate concurrent hand tracking enhanced eye tracking accuracy and had the trend to increase the precision of estimated TTC, but the inaccurate concurrent hand tracking decreased eye tracking accuracy and disrupted estimated TTC. However, eye tracking accuracy does not determine the precision of estimated TTC.

Ultra wide-band localization and SLAM: a comparative study for mobile robot navigation.

PubMed

Segura, Marcelo J; Auat Cheein, Fernando A; Toibero, Juan M; Mut, Vicente; Carelli, Ricardo

2011-01-01

In this work, a comparative study between an Ultra Wide-Band (UWB) localization system and a Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) algorithm is presented. Due to its high bandwidth and short pulses length, UWB potentially allows great accuracy in range measurements based on Time of Arrival (TOA) estimation. SLAM algorithms recursively estimates the map of an environment and the pose (position and orientation) of a mobile robot within that environment. The comparative study presented here involves the performance analysis of implementing in parallel an UWB localization based system and a SLAM algorithm on a mobile robot navigating within an environment. Real time results as well as error analysis are also shown in this work.

Spatiotemporal reconstruction of list-mode PET data.

PubMed

Nichols, Thomas E; Qi, Jinyi; Asma, Evren; Leahy, Richard M

2002-04-01

We describe a method for computing a continuous time estimate of tracer density using list-mode positron emission tomography data. The rate function in each voxel is modeled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process whose rate function can be represented using a cubic B-spline basis. The rate functions are estimated by maximizing the likelihood of the arrival times of detected photon pairs over the control vertices of the spline, modified by quadratic spatial and temporal smoothness penalties and a penalty term to enforce nonnegativity. Randoms rate functions are estimated by assuming independence between the spatial and temporal randoms distributions. Similarly, scatter rate functions are estimated by assuming spatiotemporal independence and that the temporal distribution of the scatter is proportional to the temporal distribution of the trues. A quantitative evaluation was performed using simulated data and the method is also demonstrated in a human study using 11C-raclopride.

Inertial and time-of-arrival ranging sensor fusion.

PubMed

Vasilyev, Paul; Pearson, Sean; El-Gohary, Mahmoud; Aboy, Mateo; McNames, James

2017-05-01

Wearable devices with embedded kinematic sensors including triaxial accelerometers, gyroscopes, and magnetometers are becoming widely used in applications for tracking human movement in domains that include sports, motion gaming, medicine, and wellness. The kinematic sensors can be used to estimate orientation, but can only estimate changes in position over short periods of time. We developed a prototype sensor that includes ultra wideband ranging sensors and kinematic sensors to determine the feasibility of fusing the two sensor technologies to estimate both orientation and position. We used a state space model and applied the unscented Kalman filter to fuse the sensor information. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to estimate orientation and position with less error than is possible with either sensor technology alone. In our experiment we obtained a position root mean square error of 5.2cm and orientation error of 4.8° over a 15min recording. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early Miocene origin and cryptic diversification of South American salamanders

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The currently recognized species richness of South American salamanders is surprisingly low compared to North and Central America. In part, this low richness may be due to the salamanders being a recent arrival to South America. Additionally, the number of South American salamander species may be underestimated because of cryptic diversity. The aims of our present study were to infer evolutionary relationships, lineage diversity, and timing of divergence of the South American Bolitoglossa using mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data from specimens primarily from localities in the Andes and upper Amazon Basin. We also estimated time of colonization of South America to test whether it is consistent with arrival via the Panamanian Isthmus, or land bridge connection, at its traditionally assumed age of 3 million years. Results Divergence time estimates suggest that Bolitoglossa arrived in South America from Central America by at least the Early Miocene, ca. 23.6 MYA (95% HPD 15.9-30.3 MYA), and subsequently diversified. South American salamanders of the genus Bolitoglossa show strong phylogeographic structure at fine geographic scales and deep divergences at the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b (Cytb) and high diversity at the nuclear recombination activating gene-1 (Rag1). Species often contain multiple genetically divergent lineages that are occasionally geographically overlapping. Single specimens from two southeastern localities in Ecuador are sister to the equatoriana-peruviana clade and genetically distinct from all other species investigated to date. Another single exemplar from the Andes of northwestern Ecuador is highly divergent from all other specimens and is sister to all newly studied samples. Nevertheless, all sampled species of South American Bolitoglossa are members of a single clade that is one of several constituting the subgenus Eladinea, one of seven subgenera in this large genus. Conclusions The ancestors of South American salamanders likely arrived at least by the Early Miocene, well before the completion of the Late Pliocene Panamanian land bridge (widely accepted as ca. 3 MYA). This date is in agreement with recent, controversial, arguments that an older, perhaps short-lived, land connection may have existed between South America and present-day Panama 23–25 MYA. Since its arrival in South America, Bolitoglossa has diversified more extensively than previously presumed and currently includes several cryptic species within a relatively small geographic area. Rather than two upper Amazonian species currently recorded for this region, we propose that at least eight should be recognized, although these additional lineages remain to be formally described. PMID:23497060

Joint Bearing and Range Estimation of Multiple Objects from Time-Frequency Analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Jeng-Cheng; Cheng, Yuang-Tung; Hung, Hsien-Sen

2018-01-19

Direction-of-arrival (DOA) and range estimation is an important issue of sonar signal processing. In this paper, a novel approach using Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) is proposed for joint bearing and range estimation of multiple targets based on a uniform linear array (ULA) of hydrophones. The structure of this ULA based on micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) technology, and thus has attractive features of small size, high sensitivity and low cost, and is suitable for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) operations. This proposed target localization method has the following advantages: only a single snapshot of data is needed and real-time processing is feasible. The proposed algorithm transforms a very complicated nonlinear estimation problem to a simple nearly linear one via time-frequency distribution (TFD) theory and is verified with HHT. Theoretical discussions of resolution issue are also provided to facilitate the design of a MEMS sensor with high sensitivity. Simulation results are shown to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Depth- and range-dependent variation in the performance of aquatic telemetry systems: understanding and predicting the susceptibility of acoustic tag-receiver pairs to close proximity detection interference.

PubMed

Scherrer, Stephen R; Rideout, Brendan P; Giorli, Giacomo; Nosal, Eva-Marie; Weng, Kevin C

2018-01-01

Passive acoustic telemetry using coded transmitter tags and stationary receivers is a popular method for tracking movements of aquatic animals. Understanding the performance of these systems is important in array design and in analysis. Close proximity detection interference (CPDI) is a condition where receivers fail to reliably detect tag transmissions. CPDI generally occurs when the tag and receiver are near one another in acoustically reverberant settings. Here we confirm transmission multipaths reflected off the environment arriving at a receiver with sufficient delay relative to the direct signal cause CPDI. We propose a ray-propagation based model to estimate the arrival of energy via multipaths to predict CPDI occurrence, and we show how deeper deployments are particularly susceptible. A series of experiments were designed to develop and validate our model. Deep (300 m) and shallow (25 m) ranging experiments were conducted using Vemco V13 acoustic tags and VR2-W receivers. Probabilistic modeling of hourly detections was used to estimate the average distance a tag could be detected. A mechanistic model for predicting the arrival time of multipaths was developed using parameters from these experiments to calculate the direct and multipath path lengths. This model was retroactively applied to the previous ranging experiments to validate CPDI observations. Two additional experiments were designed to validate predictions of CPDI with respect to combinations of deployment depth and distance. Playback of recorded tags in a tank environment was used to confirm multipaths arriving after the receiver's blanking interval cause CPDI effects. Analysis of empirical data estimated the average maximum detection radius (AMDR), the farthest distance at which 95% of tag transmissions went undetected by receivers, was between 840 and 846 m for the deep ranging experiment across all factor permutations. From these results, CPDI was estimated within a 276.5 m radius of the receiver. These empirical estimations were consistent with mechanistic model predictions. CPDI affected detection at distances closer than 259-326 m from receivers. AMDR determined from the shallow ranging experiment was between 278 and 290 m with CPDI neither predicted nor observed. Results of validation experiments were consistent with mechanistic model predictions. Finally, we were able to predict detection/nondetection with 95.7% accuracy using the mechanistic model's criterion when simulating transmissions with and without multipaths. Close proximity detection interference results from combinations of depth and distance that produce reflected signals arriving after a receiver's blanking interval has ended. Deployment scenarios resulting in CPDI can be predicted with the proposed mechanistic model. For deeper deployments, sea-surface reflections can produce CPDI conditions, resulting in transmission rejection, regardless of the reflective properties of the seafloor.

Analysis of sex differences in preadmission management of ST-segment elevation (STEMI) myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Greenberg, Marna Rayl; Miller, Andrew C; Mackenzie, Richard S; Richardson, David M; Ahnert, Amy M; Sclafani, Mia J; Jozefick, Jennifer L; Goyke, Terrence E; Rupp, Valerie A; Burmeister, David B

2012-10-01

Many reports suggest gender disparity in cardiac care as a contributor to the increased mortality among women with heart disease. We sought to identify gender differences in the management of Myocardial Infarction (MI) Alert-activated ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients that may have resulted from prehospital initiation. A retrospective database was created for MI Alert STEMI patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) of an academic community hospital with 74,000 annual visits from April 2000 through December 2008. Included were patients meeting criteria for an MI Alert (an institutional clinical practice guideline designed to expedite cardiac catheterization for STEMI patients). Data points (before and after initiation of a prehospital alert protocol) were compared and used as markers of therapy: time to ECG, receiving β-blockers, and time to the catheterization laboratory (cath lab). Differences in categorical variables by patient sex were assessed using the χ(2) test. Medians were estimated as the measure of central tendency. Quantile regression models were used to assess differences in median times between subgroups. A total of 1231 MI Alert charts were identified and analyzed. The majority of the study population were male (70%), arrived at the ED via ambulance (60.1%), and were taking a β-blocker (67.8%) or aspirin (91.6%) at the time of the ED admission. Female patients were more likely than male patients to arrive at the ED via ambulance (65.9% vs 57.6%, respectively; P = 0.014). The median age of female patients was 68 years, whereas male patients were significantly younger (median age, 59 years; P < 0.001). The proportion of patients currently taking a β-blocker or low-dose aspirin did not vary by gender. Overall, 78.2% of the MI Alert patients arriving at the ED were MI2 (alert initiated by ED physician), and this did not vary by gender (P = 0.33). A total of 1064 MI Alert patients went to the cath lab: 766 male patients (88.9%) and 298 female patients (80.8%). Overall, the median time to cath lab arrival was 79 minutes for men and 81 minutes for women (P = 0.38). Overall, the median time to cath lab arrival significantly decreased from MI1 to MI3, (P(trend) < 0.001). For prehospital-initiated alerts (MI3), the median time to cath lab arrival was the same for men and women (64 minutes; P = 1.0). For hospital-initiated alerts, time to cath lab arrival was 82 minutes for male patients and 84 minutes for female patients (P = 0.38). Prehospital activation of the process decreased the time to the cath lab by 19 minutes (P < 0.001; 95% CI, 13.2-24.8). No significant gender differences were apparent in the STEMI patients analyzed, whether the MI Alert was initiated in the ED or prehospital initiated. Initiating prehospital-based alerts significantly decreased the time to the cath lab. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiscale 2D Inversions of Active-source First-arrival Times in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y. P.; Zhao, L.; Hung, S. H.

2015-12-01

In this study, we make use of the active-source records collected by the TAIGER (TAiwan Integrated GEodynamics Research) project in 2008 at nearly 1400 locations on the island of Taiwan and the surrounding ocean bottom. We manually picked the first-arrival times from the waveform records to obtain a set of highly accurate P-wave traveltimes. Among the 1400 receivers, more than 1000 were deployed along four almost linear cross-island profiles with inter-seismometer spacing down to 200 m. This ground-truth dataset provides strong constrains on the structure between the exactly known active sources and densely distributed receivers, which can be used to calibrate the seismic structure in the upper crust in Taiwan. In this study, we use this dataset to image the two-dimensional P-wave structure along the four linear profiles. A wavelet parameterization of the model is adopted to achieve an objective and data-adaptive multiscale resolution to the 2D structures. Rigorous estimations of resolution lengths were also conducted to quantify the spatial resolutions of the tomography inversions. The resulting 2D models yield first-arrival time predictions that are in excellent agreement with the observations. The seismic structures along the 2D profiles display strong lateral variations (up to 80% relative to regional average) with more realistic amplitudes of velocity perturbations and spatial patterns consistent with geological zonations of Taiwan

Research on an estimation method of DOA for wireless location based on TD-SCDMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Luo, Yuan; Cheng, Shi-xin

2004-03-01

To meet the urgent need of personal communication and hign-speed data services,the standardization and products development for International Mobile Telecommunication-2000 (IMT-2000) have become a hot point in wordwide. The wireless location for mobile terminals has been an important research project. Unlike GPS which is located by 24 artificial satellities, it is based on the base-station of wireless cell network, and the research and development of it are correlative with IMT-2000. While the standard for the third generation mobile telecommunication (3G)-TD-SCDMA, which is proposed by China and the intellective property right of which is possessed by Chinese, is adopted by ITU-T at the first time, the research for wireless location based on TD-SCDMA has theoretic meaning, applied value and marketable foreground. First,the basic principle and method for wireless location, i.e. Direction of Angle(DOA), Time of Arrival(TOA) or Time Difference of Arrival(TDOA), hybridized location(TOA/DOA,TDOA/DOA,TDOA/DOA),etc. is introduced in the paper. So the research of DOA is very important in wireless location. Next, Main estimation methods of DOA for wireless location, i.e. ESPRIT, MUSIC, WSF, Min-norm, etc. are researched in the paper. In the end, the performances of DOA estimation for wireless location based on mobile telecommunication network are analyzed by the research of theory and simulation experiment and the contrast algorithms between and Cramer-Rao Bound. Its research results aren't only propitious to the choice of algorithms for wireless location, but also to the realization of new service of wireless location .

Dynamics of different-sized solid-state nanocrystals as tracers for a drug-delivery system in the interstitium of a human tumor xenograft

PubMed Central

Kawai, Masaaki; Higuchi, Hideo; Takeda, Motohiro; Kobayashi, Yoshio; Ohuchi, Noriaki

2009-01-01

Introduction Recent anticancer drugs have been made larger to pass selectively through tumor vessels and stay in the interstitium. Understanding drug movement in association with its size at the single-molecule level and estimating the time needed to reach the targeted organ is indispensable for optimizing drug delivery because single cell-targeted therapy is the ongoing paradigm. This report describes the tracking of single solid nanoparticles in tumor xenografts and the estimation of arrival time. Methods Different-sized nanoparticles measuring 20, 40, and 100 nm were injected into the tail vein of the female Balb/c nu/nu mice bearing human breast cancer on their backs. The movements of the nanoparticles were visualized through the dorsal skin-fold chamber with the high-speed confocal microscopy that we manufactured. Results An analysis of the particle trajectories revealed diffusion to be inversely related to the particle size and position in the tumor, whereas the velocity of the directed movement was related to the position. The difference in the velocity was the greatest for 40-nm particles in the perivascular to the intercellular region: difference = 5.8 nm/s. The arrival time of individual nanoparticles at tumor cells was simulated. The estimated times for the 20-, 40-, and 100-nm particles to reach the tumor cells were 158.0, 218.5, and 389.4 minutes, respectively, after extravasation. Conclusions This result suggests that the particle size can be individually designed for each goal. These data and methods are also important for understanding drug pharmacokinetics. Although this method may be subject to interference by surface molecules attached on the particles, it has the potential to elucidate the pharmacokinetics involved in constructing novel drug-delivery systems involving cell-targeted therapy. PMID:19575785

Arrival and Departure Patterns of Public Sector Employees before and after Implementation of Flexitime.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ronen, Simcha

1981-01-01

Examined the effects of a flexible working hours schedule on the arrival and departure times of 162 public sector employees. Results indicated that workers, when scheduling their own workday, deviate only moderately from their preflexitime arrival/departure times; and they tend to develop relatively stable arrival/departure patterns. (Author/RC)

Linear Vector Quantisation and Uniform Circular Arrays based decoupled two-dimensional angle of arrival estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndaw, Joseph D.; Faye, Andre; Maïga, Amadou S.

2017-05-01

Artificial neural networks (ANN)-based models are efficient ways of source localisation. However very large training sets are needed to precisely estimate two-dimensional Direction of arrival (2D-DOA) with ANN models. In this paper we present a fast artificial neural network approach for 2D-DOA estimation with reduced training sets sizes. We exploit the symmetry properties of Uniform Circular Arrays (UCA) to build two different datasets for elevation and azimuth angles. Linear Vector Quantisation (LVQ) neural networks are then sequentially trained on each dataset to separately estimate elevation and azimuth angles. A multilevel training process is applied to further reduce the training sets sizes.

Oil and gas reserves estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrell, R.; Gajdica, R.; Elliot, D.; Ahlbrandt, T.S.; Khurana, S.

2005-01-01

This article is a summary of a panel session at the 2005 Offshore Technology Conference. Oil and gas reserves estimates are further complicated with the expanding importance of the worldwide deepwater arena. These deepwater reserves can be analyzed, interpreted, and conveyed in a consistent, reliable way to investors and other stakeholders. Continually improving technologies can lead to improved estimates of production and reserves, but the estimates are not necessarily recognized by regulatory authorities as an indicator of "reasonable certainty," a term used since 1964 to describe proved reserves in several venues. Solutions are being debated in the industry to arrive at a reporting mechanism that generates consistency and at the same time leads to useful parameters in assessing a company's value without compromising confidentiality. Copyright 2005 Offshore Technology Conference.

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC/SWRC from 2010-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jian, L. K.

2017-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements near Earth, STEREO-A and STEREO-B for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B and we observed an arrival (hit), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

CAT-PUMA: CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

2018-04-01

CAT-PUMA (CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms) quickly and accurately predicts the arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) of CME arrival time. The software was trained via detailed analysis of CME features and solar wind parameters using 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full-halo CMEs and uses algorithms of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to make its predictions, which can be made within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME.

Ultra-Wideband Time-Difference-of-Arrival High Resolution 3D Proximity Tracking System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ni, Jianjun; Arndt, Dickey; Ngo, Phong; Phan, Chau; Dekome, Kent; Dusl, John

2010-01-01

This paper describes a research and development effort for a prototype ultra-wideband (UWB) tracking system that is currently under development at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The system is being studied for use in tracking of lunar./Mars rovers and astronauts during early exploration missions when satellite navigation systems are not available. U IATB impulse radio (UWB-IR) technology is exploited in the design and implementation of the prototype location and tracking system. A three-dimensional (3D) proximity tracking prototype design using commercially available UWB products is proposed to implement the Time-Difference- Of-Arrival (TDOA) tracking methodology in this research effort. The TDOA tracking algorithm is utilized for location estimation in the prototype system, not only to exploit the precise time resolution possible with UWB signals, but also to eliminate the need for synchronization between the transmitter and the receiver. Simulations show that the TDOA algorithm can achieve the fine tracking resolution with low noise TDOA estimates for close-in tracking. Field tests demonstrated that this prototype UWB TDOA High Resolution 3D Proximity Tracking System is feasible for providing positioning-awareness information in a 3D space to a robotic control system. This 3D tracking system is developed for a robotic control system in a facility called "Moonyard" at Honeywell Defense & System in Arizona under a Space Act Agreement.

Studying Room Acoustics using a Monopole-Dipole Microphone Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Begault, Durand R.; Abel, Jonathan S.; Gills, Stephen R. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The use of a soundfield microphone for examining the directional nature of a room impulse response was reported recently. By cross-correlating monopole and co-located dipole microphone signals aligned with left-right, up-down, and front-back axes, a sense of signal direction of arrival is revealed. The current study is concerned with the array's ability to detect individual reflections and directions of arrival, as a function of the cross-correlation window duration. If is window is too long, weak reflections are overlooked; if too short, spurious detections result. Guidelines are presented for setting the window width according to perceptual criteria. Formulas are presented describing the accuracy with which direction of arrival can be estimated as a function of room specifics and measurement noise. The direction of arrival of early reflections is more accurately determined than that of later reflections which are quieter and more numerous. The transition from a fairly directional sound field at the beginning of the room impulse response to a uni-directional diffuse field is examined. Finally, it is shown that measurements from additional dipole orientations can significantly improve the ability to detect reflections and estimate their directions of arrival.

Alteration of Box-Jenkins methodology by implementing genetic algorithm method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Zuhaimy; Maarof, Mohd Zulariffin Md; Fadzli, Mohammad

2015-02-01

A time series is a set of values sequentially observed through time. The Box-Jenkins methodology is a systematic method of identifying, fitting, checking and using integrated autoregressive moving average time series model for forecasting. Box-Jenkins method is an appropriate for a medium to a long length (at least 50) time series data observation. When modeling a medium to a long length (at least 50), the difficulty arose in choosing the accurate order of model identification level and to discover the right parameter estimation. This presents the development of Genetic Algorithm heuristic method in solving the identification and estimation models problems in Box-Jenkins. Data on International Tourist arrivals to Malaysia were used to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method. The forecast results that generated from this proposed model outperformed single traditional Box-Jenkins model.

Prehospital administration of tenecteplase for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in a rural EMS system.

PubMed

Crowder, Joseph S; Hubble, Michael W; Gandhi, Sanjay; McGinnis, Henderson; Zelman, Stacie; Bozeman, William; Winslow, James

2011-01-01

In the setting of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), early reperfusion yields better patient outcomes. Emergency medical services (EMS) is the first medical contact for half of the afflicted population, and prehospital thrombolysis may result in considerably faster reperfusion compared with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in rural settings. However, there are few reports of prehospital thrombolysis in rural EMS systems. To describe a rural EMS system's experience with tenecteplase in STEMI. Data were retrospectively abstracted from the medical records of patients receiving tenecteplase using standard chart review guidelines. Primary outcomes included time saved by EMS-initiated thrombolysis, aborted infarctions, serious bleeding events, and in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included reinfarction, rescue angioplasty, and appropriateness of treatment. Time savings was defined as transport time after tenecteplase administration plus 90 minutes, which is the typical door-to-balloon time for PCI laboratories. Aborted infarction was defined as resolution of the cumulative ST-segment elevation to ≤ 50% of that on the initial electrocardiogram (ECG) within two hours after treatment, and peak creatine kinase (CK)/CK-MB levels less than or equal to twice the upper limit of normal. Seventy-three patients received prehospital tenecteplase; this treatment was determined to be appropriate in 86.4% of cases. The mean patient age was 59 years, and 71.6% of the patients were male. Mean (± standard deviation) scene-arrival-to-drug time was 26.2 (± 11.4) minutes, the mean scene-arrival-to-hospital-arrival time was 73.0 (± 20.6) minutes, and the mean transport time was 46.0 (± 11.1) minutes. Tenecteplase was administered 35.9 (± 25.0) minutes prior to hospital arrival, and the estimated reperfusion time savings over PCI was 125.9 (± 25.0) minutes. Aborted infarctions were observed in 24.1% of patients, whereas 9.6% suffered reinfarction, 47.9% underwent rescue angioplasty, and 16.7% required coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Serious bleeding events occurred in 15 patients (20.5%), and four (5.5%) died. In this retrospective review of rural STEMI patients, tenecteplase was administered 36 minutes prior to hospital arrival, saving approximately two hours over typical PCI strategies and resulting in aborted infarctions in one-fourth of patients. In a rural setting with lengthy transport times to PCI facilities, tenecteplase appears to be a feasible prehospital intervention. Randomized controlled trials are needed to fully evaluate the safety and effectiveness of this intervention prior to widespread adoption.

Location of long-period events below Kilauea Volcano using seismic amplitudes and accurate relative relocation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglia, J.; Got, J.-L.; Okubo, P.

2003-01-01

We present methods for improving the location of long-period (LP) events, deep and shallow, recorded below Kilauea Volcano by the permanent seismic network. LP events might be of particular interest to understanding eruptive processes as their source mechanism is assumed to directly involve fluid transport. However, it is usually difficult or impossible to locate their source using traditional arrival time methods because of emergent wave arrivals. At Kilauea, similar LP waveform signatures suggest the existence of LP multiplets. The waveform similarity suggests spatially close sources, while catalog solutions using arrival time estimates are widely scattered beneath Kilauea's summit caldera. In order to improve estimates of absolute LP location, we use the distribution of seismic amplitudes corrected for station site effects. The decay of the amplitude as a function of hypocentral distance is used for inferring LP location. In a second stage, we use the similarity of the events to calculate their relative positions. The analysis of the entire LP seismicity recorded between January 1997 and December 1999 suggests that a very large part of the LP event population, both deep and shallow, is generated by a small number of compact sources. Deep events are systematically composed of a weak high-frequency onset followed by a low-frequency wave train. Aligning the low-frequency wave trains does not lead to aligning the onsets indicating the two parts of the signal are dissociated. This observation favors an interpretation in terms of triggering and resonance of a magmatic conduit. Instead of defining fault planes, the precise relocation of similar LP events, based on the alignment of the high-energy low-frequency wave trains, defines limited size volumes. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Storage capacity: how big should it be

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malina, M.A.

1980-01-28

A mathematical model was developed for determining the economically optimal storage capacity of a given material or product at a manufacturing plant. The optimum was defined as a trade-off between the inventory-holding costs and the cost of customer-service failures caused by insufficient stocks for a peak-demand period. The order-arrival, production, storage, and shipment process was simulated by Monte Carlo techniques to calculate the probability of order delays for various lengths of time as a function of storage capacity. Example calculations for the storage of a bulk liquid chemical in tanks showed that the conclusions arrived at, via this model, aremore » comparatively insensitive to errors made in estimating the capital cost of storage or the risk of losing an order because of a late delivery.« less

The movement of sequestrated CO2 revealed by seismic attenuation spatial and temporal changes in Frio-II site, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; Daley, T. M.

2015-12-01

Continuous active source seismic measurements (CASSM) were collected in the crosswell geometry during scCO2 injection at the Frio-II brine pilot (Liberty, TX). Previous studies (Daley et.al. 2007, 2011) have demonstrated that spatial-temporal changes in the picked first arrival time after CO2 injection constrain the movement of the CO2 plume in the storage interval. To improve the quantitative constraints on plume saturation using this dataset, we investigate spatial-temporal changes in the seismic attenuation of the first arrivals. The attenuation changes over the injection period (~60 h) are estimated by the amount of the centroid frequency shift computed by the local time-frequency analysis. Our observations include: at receivers above the packer seismic attenuation does not change in a physical trend; at receivers below the packer attenuation sharply increases as the amount of CO2 plume increase at the first few hours and peaks at specific points varying with distributed receivers, which are consistent with observations from time delays of first arrivals. Then, attenuation decreases over the injection time with increased amount of CO2 plume. This bell-shaped attenuation response as a function of time in the experiment is consistent with White's patchy saturation model which predicts an attenuation peak at intermediate CO2 saturations. Our analysis suggests that spatial-temporal attenuation change is an indicator of the movement/saturation of CO2 plume at high saturations, a system state for which seismic measurements are typically only weakly sensitive to.

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The ability to accurately forecast census counts in hospital departments has considerable implications for hospital resource allocation. In recent years several different methods have been proposed forecasting census counts, however many of these approaches do not use available patient-specific information. Methods In this paper we present an ensemble-based methodology for forecasting the census under a framework that simultaneously incorporates both (i) arrival trends over time and (ii) patient-specific baseline and time-varying information. The proposed model for predicting census has three components, namely: current census count, number of daily arrivals and number of daily departures. To model the number of daily arrivals, we use a seasonality adjusted Poisson Autoregressive (PAR) model where the parameter estimates are obtained via conditional maximum likelihood. The number of daily departures is predicted by modeling the probability of departure from the census using logistic regression models that are adjusted for the amount of time spent in the census and incorporate both patient-specific baseline and time varying patient-specific covariate information. We illustrate our approach using neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) data collected at Women & Infants Hospital, Providence RI, which consists of 1001 consecutive NICU admissions between April 1st 2008 and March 31st 2009. Results Our results demonstrate statistically significant improved prediction accuracy for 3, 5, and 7 day census forecasts and increased precision of our forecasting model compared to a forecasting approach that ignores patient-specific information. Conclusions Forecasting models that utilize patient-specific baseline and time-varying information make the most of data typically available and have the capacity to substantially improve census forecasts. PMID:23721123

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units.

PubMed

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-05-30

The ability to accurately forecast census counts in hospital departments has considerable implications for hospital resource allocation. In recent years several different methods have been proposed forecasting census counts, however many of these approaches do not use available patient-specific information. In this paper we present an ensemble-based methodology for forecasting the census under a framework that simultaneously incorporates both (i) arrival trends over time and (ii) patient-specific baseline and time-varying information. The proposed model for predicting census has three components, namely: current census count, number of daily arrivals and number of daily departures. To model the number of daily arrivals, we use a seasonality adjusted Poisson Autoregressive (PAR) model where the parameter estimates are obtained via conditional maximum likelihood. The number of daily departures is predicted by modeling the probability of departure from the census using logistic regression models that are adjusted for the amount of time spent in the census and incorporate both patient-specific baseline and time varying patient-specific covariate information. We illustrate our approach using neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) data collected at Women & Infants Hospital, Providence RI, which consists of 1001 consecutive NICU admissions between April 1st 2008 and March 31st 2009. Our results demonstrate statistically significant improved prediction accuracy for 3, 5, and 7 day census forecasts and increased precision of our forecasting model compared to a forecasting approach that ignores patient-specific information. Forecasting models that utilize patient-specific baseline and time-varying information make the most of data typically available and have the capacity to substantially improve census forecasts.

Adaptive Waveform Correlation Detectors for Arrays: Algorithms for Autonomous Calibration

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

March 17, 2005. The seismic signals from both master and detected events are followed by infrasound arrivals. Note the long duration of the...correlation coefficient traces with a significant array -gain. A detected event that is co-located with the master event will record the same time-difference...estimating the detection threshold reduction for a range of highly repeating seismic sources using arrays of different configurations and at different

No-search algorithm for direction of arrival estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuncer, T. Engin; Ã-Zgen, M. Tankut

2009-10-01

Direction of arrival estimation (DOA) is an important problem in ionospheric research and electromagnetics as well as many other fields. When superresolution techniques are used, a computationally expensive search should be performed in general. In this paper, a no-search algorithm is presented. The idea is to separate the source signals in the time-frequency plane by using the Short-Time Fourier Transform. The direction vector for each source is found by coherent summation over the instantaneous frequency (IF) tracks of the individual sources which are found automatically by employing morphological image processing. Both overlapping and nonoverlapping source IF tracks can be processed and identified by the proposed approach. The CLEAN algorithm is adopted in order to isolate the IF tracks of the overlapping sources with different powers. The proposed method is very effective in finding the IF tracks and can be applied for signals with arbitrary IF characteristics. While the proposed method can be applied to any sensor geometry, planar uniform circular arrays (UCA) bring additional advantages. Different properties of the UCA are presented, and it is shown that the DOA angles can be found as the mean-square error optimum solution of a linear matrix equation. Several simulations are done, and it is shown that the proposed approach performs significantly better than the conventional methods.

Sub-Saharan African migrants living with HIV acquired after migration, France, ANRS PARCOURS study, 2012 to 2013.

PubMed

Desgrées-du-Loû, Annabel; Pannetier, Julie; Ravalihasy, Andrainolo; Gosselin, Anne; Supervie, Virginie; Panjo, Henri; Bajos, Nathalie; Lert, France; Lydié, Nathalie; Dray-Spira, Rosemary

2015-01-01

We estimated the proportion of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa who acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) while living in France. Life-event and clinical information was collected in 2012 and 2013 from a random sample of HIV-infected outpatients born in sub-Saharan Africa and living in the Paris region. We assumed HIV infection in France if at least one of the following was fulfilled: (i) HIV diagnosis at least 11 years after arrival in France, (ii) at least one negative HIV test in France, (iii) sexual debut after arrival in France. Otherwise, time of HIV infection was based on statistical modelling of first CD4(+) T-cell count; infection in France was assumed if more than 50% (median scenario) or more than 95% (conservative scenario) of modelled infection times occurred after migration. We estimated that 49% of 898 HIV-infected adults born in sub-Saharan Africa (95% confidence interval (CI): 45-53) in the median and 35% (95% CI: 31-39) in the conservative scenario acquired HIV while living in France. This proportion was higher in men than women (44% (95% CI: 37-51) vs 30% (95% CI: 25-35); conservative scenario) and increased with length of stay in France. These high proportions highlight the need for improved HIV policies targeting migrants.

Characteristics of service requests and service processes of fire and rescue service dispatch centers: analysis of real world data and the underlying probability distributions.

PubMed

Krueger, Ute; Schimmelpfeng, Katja

2013-03-01

A sufficient staffing level in fire and rescue dispatch centers is crucial for saving lives. Therefore, it is important to estimate the expected workload properly. For this purpose, we analyzed whether a dispatch center can be considered as a call center. Current call center publications very often model call arrivals as a non-homogeneous Poisson process. This bases on the underlying assumption of the caller's independent decision to call or not to call. In case of an emergency, however, there are often calls from more than one person reporting the same incident and thus, these calls are not independent. Therefore, this paper focuses on the dependency of calls in a fire and rescue dispatch center. We analyzed and evaluated several distributions in this setting. Results are illustrated using real-world data collected from a typical German dispatch center in Cottbus ("Leitstelle Lausitz"). We identified the Pólya distribution as being superior to the Poisson distribution in describing the call arrival rate and the Weibull distribution to be more suitable than the exponential distribution for interarrival times and service times. However, the commonly used distributions offer acceptable approximations. This is important for estimating a sufficient staffing level in practice using, e.g., the Erlang-C model.

Predicting Operator Execution Times Using CogTool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santiago-Espada, Yamira; Latorella, Kara A.

2013-01-01

Researchers and developers of NextGen systems can use predictive human performance modeling tools as an initial approach to obtain skilled user performance times analytically, before system testing with users. This paper describes the CogTool models for a two pilot crew executing two different types of a datalink clearance acceptance tasks, and on two different simulation platforms. The CogTool time estimates for accepting and executing Required Time of Arrival and Interval Management clearances were compared to empirical data observed in video tapes and registered in simulation files. Results indicate no statistically significant difference between empirical data and the CogTool predictions. A population comparison test found no significant differences between the CogTool estimates and the empirical execution times for any of the four test conditions. We discuss modeling caveats and considerations for applying CogTool to crew performance modeling in advanced cockpit environments.

Registration of surface structures using airborne focused ultrasound.

PubMed

Sundström, N; Börjesson, P O; Holmer, N G; Olsson, L; Persson, H W

1991-01-01

A low-cost measuring system, based on a personal computer combined with standard equipment for complex measurements and signal processing, has been assembled. Such a system increases the possibilities for small hospitals and clinics to finance advanced measuring equipment. A description of equipment developed for airborne ultrasound together with a personal computer-based system for fast data acquisition and processing is given. Two air-adapted ultrasound transducers with high lateral resolution have been developed. Furthermore, a few results for fast and accurate estimation of signal arrival time are presented. The theoretical estimation models developed are applied to skin surface profile registrations.

Online Updating of Statistical Inference in the Big Data Setting.

PubMed

Schifano, Elizabeth D; Wu, Jing; Wang, Chun; Yan, Jun; Chen, Ming-Hui

2016-01-01

We present statistical methods for big data arising from online analytical processing, where large amounts of data arrive in streams and require fast analysis without storage/access to the historical data. In particular, we develop iterative estimating algorithms and statistical inferences for linear models and estimating equations that update as new data arrive. These algorithms are computationally efficient, minimally storage-intensive, and allow for possible rank deficiencies in the subset design matrices due to rare-event covariates. Within the linear model setting, the proposed online-updating framework leads to predictive residual tests that can be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the hypothesized model. We also propose a new online-updating estimator under the estimating equation setting. Theoretical properties of the goodness-of-fit tests and proposed estimators are examined in detail. In simulation studies and real data applications, our estimator compares favorably with competing approaches under the estimating equation setting.

Computer Programs for the AUSEX (Aircraft Undersea Sound Experiment) Air-Water Acoustic Propagation Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-01-28

source-receiver geometry dynamics. For a given time instant, each of the subroutines outputs time variables ( emission time, arrival time...transmission loss, depression/elevation and azimuthal arrival angles, received frequency and range variables (range at emission time, range at arrival time...with the wind equal 24.5 kts. In the double bottom bounce regions, the emission angles (at the virtual surface source) are moderately small (15

Array processing for RFID tag localization exploiting multi-frequency signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yimin; Li, Xin; Amin, Moeness G.

2009-05-01

RFID is an increasingly valuable business and technology tool for electronically identifying, locating, and tracking products, assets, and personnel. As a result, precise positioning and tracking of RFID tags and readers have received considerable attention from both academic and industrial communities. Finding the position of RFID tags is considered an important task in various real-time locating systems (RTLS). As such, numerous RFID localization products have been developed for various applications. The majority of RFID positioning systems is based on the fusion of pieces of relevant information, such as the range and the direction-of-arrival (DOA). For example, trilateration can determine the tag position by using the range information of the tag estimated from three or more spatially separated reader antennas. Triangulation is another method to locate RFID tags that use the direction-of-arrival (DOA) information estimated at multiple spatially separated locations. The RFID tag positions can also be determined through hybrid techniques that combine the range and DOA information. The focus of this paper to study the design and performance of the localization of passive RFID tags using array processing techniques in a multipath environment, and exploiting multi-frequency CW signals. The latter are used to decorrelate the coherent multipath signals for effective DOA estimation and for the purpose of accurate range estimation. Accordingly, the spatial and frequency dimensionalities are fully utilized for robust and accurate positioning of RFID tags.

Forecasting the Short-Term Passenger Flow on High-Speed Railway with Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Xie, Mei-Quan; Li, Xia-Miao; Zhou, Wen-Liang; Fu, Yan-Bing

2014-01-01

Short-term passenger flow forecasting is an important component of transportation systems. The forecasting result can be applied to support transportation system operation and management such as operation planning and revenue management. In this paper, a divide-and-conquer method based on neural network and origin-destination (OD) matrix estimation is developed to forecast the short-term passenger flow in high-speed railway system. There are three steps in the forecasting method. Firstly, the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station are obtained from historical passenger flow data, which are OD matrices in this paper. Secondly, short-term passenger flow forecasting of the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station based on neural network is realized. At last, the OD matrices in short-term time are obtained with an OD matrix estimation method. The experimental results indicate that the proposed divide-and-conquer method performs well in forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway. PMID:25544838

Modelling and Prediction of Spark-ignition Engine Power Performance Using Incremental Least Squares Support Vector Machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Pak-kin; Vong, Chi-man; Wong, Hang-cheong; Li, Ke

2010-05-01

Modern automotive spark-ignition (SI) power performance usually refers to output power and torque, and they are significantly affected by the setup of control parameters in the engine management system (EMS). EMS calibration is done empirically through tests on the dynamometer (dyno) because no exact mathematical engine model is yet available. With an emerging nonlinear function estimation technique of Least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), the approximate power performance model of a SI engine can be determined by training the sample data acquired from the dyno. A novel incremental algorithm based on typical LS-SVM is also proposed in this paper, so the power performance models built from the incremental LS-SVM can be updated whenever new training data arrives. With updating the models, the model accuracies can be continuously increased. The predicted results using the estimated models from the incremental LS-SVM are good agreement with the actual test results and with the almost same average accuracy of retraining the models from scratch, but the incremental algorithm can significantly shorten the model construction time when new training data arrives.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of muscle patterns for ball catching

PubMed Central

D'Andola, M.; Cesqui, B.; Portone, A.; Fernandez, L.; Lacquaniti, F.; d'Avella, A.

2013-01-01

What sources of information and what control strategies the central nervous system (CNS) uses to perform movements that require accurate sensorimotor coordination, such as catching a flying ball, is still debated. Here we analyzed the EMG waveforms recorded from 16 shoulder and elbow muscles in six subjects during catching of balls projected frontally from a distance of 6 m and arriving at two different heights and with three different flight times (550, 650, 750 ms). We found that a large fraction of the variation in the muscle patterns was captured by two time-varying muscle synergies, coordinated recruitment of groups of muscles with specific activation waveforms, modulated in amplitude and shifted in time according to the ball's arrival height and flight duration. One synergy was recruited with a short and fixed delay from launch time. Remarkably, a second synergy was recruited at a fixed time before impact, suggesting that it is timed according to an accurate time-to-contact estimation. These results suggest that the control of interceptive movements relies on a combination of reactive and predictive processes through the intermittent recruitment of time-varying muscle synergies. Knowledge of the dynamic effect of gravity and drag on the ball may be then implicitly incorporated in a direct mapping of visual information into a small number of synergy recruitment parameters. PMID:23966939

Geohydrology of the unsaturated zone and simulated time of arrival of landfill leachate at the water table, municipal solid waste landfill facility, US Army Air Defense Artillery Center and Fort Bliss, El Paso County, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frenzel, Peter F.; Abeyta, Cynthia G.

1999-01-01

The U.S. Air Defense Artillery Center and Fort Bliss Municipal Solid Waste Landfill Facility (MSWLF) is located about 10 miles northeast of downtown El Paso, Texas. The landfill is built on the Hueco Bolson, a deposit that yields water to five public-supply wells within 1.1 miles of the landfill boundary on all sides. The bolson deposits consist of lenses and mixtures of sand, clay, silt, gravel, and caliche. The unsaturated zone at the landfill is about 300 feet thick. The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) and the Multimedia Exposure Assessment Model for Evaluating the Land Disposal of Wastes (MULTIMED) computer models were used to simulate the time of first arrival of landfill leachate at the water table. Site-specific data were collected for model input. At five sites on the landfill cover, hydraulic conductivity was measured by an in situ method; in addition, laboratory values were obtained for porosity, moisture content at field capacity, and moisture content at wilting point. Twenty-seven sediment samples were collected from two adjacent boreholes drilled near the southwest corner of the landfill. Of these, 23 samples were assumed to represent the unsaturated zone beneath the landfill. The core samples were analyzed in the laboratory for various characteristics required for the HELP and MULTIMED models: initial moisture content, dry bulk density, porosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity, moisture retention percentages at various suction values, total organic carbon, and pH. Parameters were calculated for the van Genuchten and Brooks-Corey equations that relate hydraulic conductivity to saturation. A reported recharge value of 0.008 inch per year was estimated on the basis of soil- water chloride concentration. The HELP model was implemented using input values that were based mostly on site-specific data or assumed in a conservative manner. Exceptions were the default values used for waste characteristics. Flow through the landfill was assumed to be at steady state. The HELP-estimated landfill leakage rate was 101.6 millimeters per year, approximately 500 times the estimated recharge rate for the area near the landfill. The MULTIMED model was implemented using input values that were based mainly on site-specific data and some conservatively assumed values. Landfill leakage was assumed to begin when the landfill was established and to continue at a steady-state rate of 101.6 millimeters per year as estimated by the HELP model. By using an assumed solute concentration in the leachate of 1 milligram per liter and assuming no delay or decay of solute, the solute serves as a tracer to indicate the first arrival of landfill leachate. The simulated first arrival of leachate at the water table was 204 to 210 years after the establishment of the landfill.

Timing the Random and Anomalous Arrival of Particles in a Geiger Counter with GPS Devices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanco, F.; La Rocca, P.; Riggi, F.; Riggi, S.

2008-01-01

The properties of the arrival time distribution of particles in a detector have been studied by the use of a small Geiger counter, with a GPS device to tag the event time. The experiment is intended to check the basic properties of the random arrival time distribution between successive events and to simulate the investigations carried out by…

Design of Small MEMS Microphone Array Systems for Direction Finding of Outdoors Moving Vehicles

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xin; Huang, Jingchang; Song, Enliang; Liu, Huawei; Li, Baoqing; Yuan, Xiaobing

2014-01-01

In this paper, a MEMS microphone array system scheme is proposed which implements real-time direction of arrival (DOA) estimation for moving vehicles. Wind noise is the primary source of unwanted noise on microphones outdoors. A multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm is used in this paper for direction finding associated with spatial coherence to discriminate between the wind noise and the acoustic signals of a vehicle. The method is implemented in a SHARC DSP processor and the real-time estimated DOA is uploaded through Bluetooth or a UART module. Experimental results in different places show the validity of the system and the deviation is no bigger than 6° in the presence of wind noise. PMID:24603636

Design of small MEMS microphone array systems for direction finding of outdoors moving vehicles.

PubMed

Zhang, Xin; Huang, Jingchang; Song, Enliang; Liu, Huawei; Li, Baoqing; Yuan, Xiaobing

2014-03-05

In this paper, a MEMS microphone array system scheme is proposed which implements real-time direction of arrival (DOA) estimation for moving vehicles. Wind noise is the primary source of unwanted noise on microphones outdoors. A multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm is used in this paper for direction finding associated with spatial coherence to discriminate between the wind noise and the acoustic signals of a vehicle. The method is implemented in a SHARC DSP processor and the real-time estimated DOA is uploaded through Bluetooth or a UART module. Experimental results in different places show the validity of the system and the deviation is no bigger than 6° in the presence of wind noise.

Ultra Wide-Band Localization and SLAM: A Comparative Study for Mobile Robot Navigation

PubMed Central

Segura, Marcelo J.; Auat Cheein, Fernando A.; Toibero, Juan M.; Mut, Vicente; Carelli, Ricardo

2011-01-01

In this work, a comparative study between an Ultra Wide-Band (UWB) localization system and a Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) algorithm is presented. Due to its high bandwidth and short pulses length, UWB potentially allows great accuracy in range measurements based on Time of Arrival (TOA) estimation. SLAM algorithms recursively estimates the map of an environment and the pose (position and orientation) of a mobile robot within that environment. The comparative study presented here involves the performance analysis of implementing in parallel an UWB localization based system and a SLAM algorithm on a mobile robot navigating within an environment. Real time results as well as error analysis are also shown in this work. PMID:22319397

Number needed to eat: pizza and resident conference attendance.

PubMed

Cosimini, Michael J; Mackintosh, Liza; Chang, Todd P

2016-12-01

The didactic conference is a common part of the resident education curriculum. Given the demands of clinical responsibilities and restrictions on duty hours, maximising education is a challenge faced by all residency programmes. To date, little research exists with respect to how the provision of complimentary food affects physician and resident conference attendance. The objective of this study was to determine whether complimentary food improves resident arrival times and attendance at educational conferences and, furthermore, to test whether this provision is a potentially cost-effective tool for improving education. A retrospective review of 36 resident educational Friday noon conferences, including 1043 resident arrivals, was performed. Data were analysed for total attendance, arrival times, number needed to eat (NNE) and the percentage of residents arriving on time, and compared between days on which food was and was not provided. Median attendance was 3.7% higher (p = 0.04) on days on which food was provided, at a cost of US$46 for each additional resident in attendance. Arrival times were also statistically significantly improved when food was provided, with a median improvement of 0.7 minutes (p = 0.02) and an 11.0% increase in on-time arrivals (p < 0.001). The NNE was 10.6. Complimentary food improves both attendance and arrival times by a small, but statistically significant, degree. The provision of complimentary food can be considered as an incentive for attendance and on-time arrival at didactic educational sessions, although more cost-effective modalities may exist. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

Analysis of the geophysical data using a posteriori algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voskoboynikova, Gyulnara; Khairetdinov, Marat

2016-04-01

The problems of monitoring, prediction and prevention of extraordinary natural and technogenic events are priority of modern problems. These events include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, the lunar-solar tides, landslides, falling celestial bodies, explosions utilized stockpiles of ammunition, numerous quarry explosion in open coal mines, provoking technogenic earthquakes. Monitoring is based on a number of successive stages, which include remote registration of the events responses, measurement of the main parameters as arrival times of seismic waves or the original waveforms. At the final stage the inverse problems associated with determining the geographic location and time of the registration event are solving. Therefore, improving the accuracy of the parameters estimation of the original records in the high noise is an important problem. As is known, the main measurement errors arise due to the influence of external noise, the difference between the real and model structures of the medium, imprecision of the time definition in the events epicenter, the instrumental errors. Therefore, posteriori algorithms more accurate in comparison with known algorithms are proposed and investigated. They are based on a combination of discrete optimization method and fractal approach for joint detection and estimation of the arrival times in the quasi-periodic waveforms sequence in problems of geophysical monitoring with improved accuracy. Existing today, alternative approaches to solving these problems does not provide the given accuracy. The proposed algorithms are considered for the tasks of vibration sounding of the Earth in times of lunar and solar tides, and for the problem of monitoring of the borehole seismic source location in trade drilling.

A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, N.; Wu, Y.; Chen, D.; Kuo, K.; Shin, T.

2009-12-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) system has already been developed and tested in Taiwan for more than ten years. With the implementation of a real-time strong-motion network by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), a virtual sub-network (VSN) system based on regional early warning approach was utilized at the first attempt. In order to shorten the processing time, seismic waveforms in a 10-sec time window starting from the first P-wave arrival time at the nearest station are used to determine the hypocenter and earthquake magnitude which is dubbed ML10. Since 2001, this EEW system has responded to a total of 255 events with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred inland or off the coast of Taiwan. The system is capable of issuing an earthquake report within 20 sec of its occurrence with good magnitude estimations for events up to magnitude 6.5. This will provide early warning for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicentre. In the latest development, a new prototype EEW system based on P-wave method was developed. Instead of ML10, we adopt the “Pd magnitude”, MPd, as our magnitude indicator in the new system. Pd is defined as the peak amplitude of the initial P-wave displacement. In the previous studies, by analyzing the Pd attenuation relationship with earthquake magnitudes, Pd was proved to be a good magnitude estimator for EEW purpose. Therefore, we adopt the Pd magnitude in developing our next generation EEW system. The new system is designed and constructed based on the Central Weather Bureau Seismographic Network (CWBSN). The CWBSN is a real-time seismographic network with more than one hundred digital telemetered seismic stations distributed over the entire Taiwan. Currently, there are three types of seismic instruments installed at the stations, either co-site or separately installed, including short-period seismographs, accelerometers, and broadband instruments. For the need of integral data processing, we use the Earthworm system as a common platform to integrate all real-time signals. In the process, strong-motion and broadband signals are used for automatic P-wave arrival time and Pd determination. However, short-period signals are only used for P-wave arrival time picking. This new system is still under development and being improved, with the hope of replacing the current operational EEW system in the future.

Catching Up or Falling Behind? Continuing Wealth Disparities for Immigrants to Canada by Region of Origin and Cohort.

PubMed

Maroto, Michelle; Aylsworth, Laura

2016-11-01

This paper investigates wealth disparities among first-generation immigrants using data from the 2012 Survey of Financial Security. We apply logistic and linear regression models to estimate disparities in homeownership and household equivalent net worth by immigrant status, region of origin, and time since arrival. By focusing on immigrant families from different regions who entered Canada at different points in time, this research applies theories related to assimilation, human capital, and structural barriers to wealth. Our findings demonstrate that even though many immigrant families transition into homeownership and grow their wealth over time, certain first-generation immigrant groups continue to experience wealth disparities many years after their arrival to Canada. In particular, immigrant families from African, Asian, and Middle Eastern countries experienced the largest wealth gaps. Cet article examine les disparités de richesse entre les immigrants de première génération en utilisant les données de l'Enquête 2012 sur la sécurité financière. Nous appliquons des modèles de régression logistique et linéaire pour estimer les disparités dans la propriété et valeur nette des ménages équivalente par le statut d'immigrant, la région d'origine, et le temps écoulé depuis leur arrivée. En se concentrant sur les familles d'immigrants de différentes régions qui sont entrés au Canada à différents points dans le temps, cette recherche applique les théories liées à l'assimilation, le capital humain, et les obstacles structurels à la richesse. Nos résultats démontrent que même si de nombreuses familles d'immigrants transition vers la propriété et de croître leur richesse au fil du temps, certains groupes d'immigrants de première génération continuent d'éprouver des disparités de richesse de nombreuses années après leur arrivée au Canada. En particulier, les familles d'immigrants d'Afrique, d'Asie, et les pays du Moyen-Orient ont connu les plus grands écarts de richesse. © 2016 Canadian Sociological Association/La Société canadienne de sociologie.

Supplement to LA-UR-17-21218: Application to SSVD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tregillis, Ian Lee

We apply the formalism derived in LA-UR-17-21218 to the prescription for an RMI-based self-similar velocity distribution (SSVD) derived by Ham- merberg et al.. We compute analytically the true [mt(t)] and inferred [mi(t)] ejecta mass arriving at the piezoelectric sensor for several shots de- scribed in the literature and compare the results to the data. We nd that while the \\RMI + SSVD" prescription gives rise to decent estimates for the nal accumulated mass at the pin, the time-dependent accumulation rises too sharply and linearly to agree with data. We also compute the time-dependent pressure and voltage at the sensor, andmore » compare the latter to data. The pres- sure does not rise smoothly from zero, instead exhibiting a strong surge as the leading edge of the ejecta cloud arrives, which produces an initial sharp spike in the voltage trace, which is not observed. These inconsistencies result from a discontinuity in the prescribed self-similar velocity distribution at maximum relative velocity.« less

Filtering for networked control systems with single/multiple measurement packets subject to multiple-step measurement delays and multiple packet dropouts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moayedi, Maryam; Foo, Yung Kuan; Chai Soh, Yeng

2011-03-01

The minimum-variance filtering problem in networked control systems, where both random measurement transmission delays and packet dropouts may occur, is investigated in this article. Instead of following the many existing results that solve the problem by using probabilistic approaches based on the probabilities of the uncertainties occurring between the sensor and the filter, we propose a non-probabilistic approach by time-stamping the measurement packets. Both single-measurement and multiple measurement packets are studied. We also consider the case of burst arrivals, where more than one packet may arrive between the receiver's previous and current sampling times; the scenario where the control input is non-zero and subject to delays and packet dropouts is examined as well. It is shown that, in such a situation, the optimal state estimate would generally be dependent on the possible control input. Simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance of the various proposed filters.

Improving Focal Depth Estimates: Studies of Depth Phase Detection at Regional Distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroujkova, A.; Reiter, D. T.; Shumway, R. H.

2006-12-01

The accurate estimation of the depth of small, regionally recorded events continues to be an important and difficult explosion monitoring research problem. Depth phases (free surface reflections) are the primary tool that seismologists use to constrain the depth of a seismic event. When depth phases from an event are detected, an accurate source depth is easily found by using the delay times of the depth phases relative to the P wave and a velocity profile near the source. Cepstral techniques, including cepstral F-statistics, represent a class of methods designed for the depth-phase detection and identification; however, they offer only a moderate level of success at epicentral distances less than 15°. This is due to complexities in the Pn coda, which can lead to numerous false detections in addition to the true phase detection. Therefore, cepstral methods cannot be used independently to reliably identify depth phases. Other evidence, such as apparent velocities, amplitudes and frequency content, must be used to confirm whether the phase is truly a depth phase. In this study we used a variety of array methods to estimate apparent phase velocities and arrival azimuths, including beam-forming, semblance analysis, MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) (e.g., Schmidt, 1979), and cross-correlation (e.g., Cansi, 1995; Tibuleac and Herrin, 1997). To facilitate the processing and comparison of results, we developed a MATLAB-based processing tool, which allows application of all of these techniques (i.e., augmented cepstral processing) in a single environment. The main objective of this research was to combine the results of three focal-depth estimation techniques and their associated standard errors into a statistically valid unified depth estimate. The three techniques include: 1. Direct focal depth estimate from the depth-phase arrival times picked via augmented cepstral processing. 2. Hypocenter location from direct and surface-reflected arrivals observed on sparse networks of regional stations using a Grid-search, Multiple-Event Location method (GMEL; Rodi and Toksöz, 2000; 2001). 3. Surface-wave dispersion inversion for event depth and focal mechanism (Herrmann and Ammon, 2002). To validate our approach and provide quality control for our solutions, we applied the techniques to moderated- sized events (mb between 4.5 and 6.0) with known focal mechanisms. We illustrate the techniques using events observed at regional distances from the KSAR (Wonju, South Korea) teleseismic array and other nearby broadband three-component stations. Our results indicate that the techniques can produce excellent agreement between the various depth estimates. In addition, combining the techniques into a "unified" estimate greatly reduced location errors and improved robustness of the solution, even if results from the individual methods yielded large standard errors.

A Space-Time Signal Decomposition Algorithm for Downlink MIMO DS-CDMA Receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yung-Yi; Fang, Wen-Hsien; Chen, Jiunn-Tsair

We propose a dimension reduction algorithm for the receiver of the downlink of direct-sequence code-division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems in which both the transmitters and the receivers employ antenna arrays of multiple elements. To estimate the high order channel parameters, we develop a layered architecture using dimension-reduced parameter estimation algorithms to estimate the frequency-selective multipath channels. In the proposed architecture, to exploit the space-time geometric characteristics of multipath channels, spatial beamformers and constrained (or unconstrained) temporal filters are adopted for clustered-multipath grouping and path isolation. In conjunction with the multiple access interference (MAI) suppression techniques, the proposed architecture jointly estimates the direction of arrivals, propagation delays, and fading amplitudes of the downlink fading multipaths. With the outputs of the proposed architecture, the signals of interest can then be naturally detected by using path-wise maximum ratio combining. Compared to the traditional techniques, such as the Joint-Angle-and-Delay-Estimation (JADE) algorithm for DOA-delay joint estimation and the space-time minimum mean square error (ST-MMSE) algorithm for signal detection, computer simulations show that the proposed algorithm substantially mitigate the computational complexity at the expense of only slight performance degradation.

Short-term gas dispersion in idealised urban canopy in street parallel with flow direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaloupecká, Hana; Jaňour, Zbyněk; Nosek, Štěpán

2016-03-01

Chemical attacks (e.g. Syria 2014-15 chlorine, 2013 sarine or Iraq 2006-7 chlorine) as well as chemical plant disasters (e.g. Spain 2015 nitric oxide, ferric chloride; Texas 2014 methyl mercaptan) threaten mankind. In these crisis situations, gas clouds are released. Dispersion of gas clouds is the issue of interest investigated in this paper. The paper describes wind tunnel experiments of dispersion from ground level point gas source. The source is situated in a model of an idealised urban canopy. The short duration releases of passive contaminant ethane are created by an electromagnetic valve. The gas cloud concentrations are measured in individual places at the height of the human breathing zone within a street parallel with flow direction by Fast-response Ionisation Detector. The simulations of the gas release for each measurement position are repeated many times under the same experimental set up to obtain representative datasets. These datasets are analysed to compute puff characteristics (arrival, leaving time and duration). The results indicate that the mean value of the dimensionless arrival time can be described as a growing linear function of the dimensionless coordinate in the street parallel with flow direction where the gas source is situated. The same might be stated about the dimensionless leaving time as well as the dimensionless duration, however these fits are worse. Utilising a linear function, we might also estimate some other statistical characteristics from datasets than the datasets means (medians, trimeans). The datasets of the dimensionless arrival time, the dimensionless leaving time and the dimensionless duration can be fitted by the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) in all sampling positions except one.

Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; van Loon, E Emiel; Fokkema, Wimke; Lameris, Thomas K; Nolet, Bart A; van der Jeugd, Henk P

2017-09-01

A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally missed by observers or observational devices. These time series are not restricted to behavioral protocols, but can be any cyclic or recurring process where discrete outcomes are observed. Undetected events cause biased inferences on the process of interest, and statistical analyses are needed that can identify and correct the compromised detection processes. Missed observations in time series lead to observed time intervals between events at multiples of the true inter-event time, which conveys information on their detection probability. We derive the theoretical probability density function for observed intervals between events that includes a probability of missed detection. Methodology and software tools are provided for analysis of event data with potential observation bias and its removal. The methodology was applied to simulation data and a case study of defecation rate estimation in geese, which is commonly used to estimate their digestive throughput and energetic uptake, or to calculate goose usage of a feeding site from dropping density. Simulations indicate that at a moderate chance to miss arrival events ( p  = 0.3), uncorrected arrival intervals were biased upward by up to a factor 3, while parameter values corrected for missed observations were within 1% of their true simulated value. A field case study shows that not accounting for missed observations leads to substantial underestimates of the true defecation rate in geese, and spurious rate differences between sites, which are introduced by differences in observational conditions. These results show that the derived methodology can be used to effectively remove observational biases in time-ordered event data.

Locating seismicity on the Arctic plate boundary using multiple-event techniques and empirical signal processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbons, S. J.; Harris, D. B.; Dahl-Jensen, T.; Kværna, T.; Larsen, T. B.; Paulsen, B.; Voss, P. H.

2017-12-01

The oceanic boundary separating the Eurasian and North American plates between 70° and 84° north hosts large earthquakes which are well recorded teleseismically, and many more seismic events at far lower magnitudes that are well recorded only at regional distances. Existing seismic bulletins have considerable spread and bias resulting from limited station coverage and deficiencies in the velocity models applied. This is particularly acute for the lower magnitude events which may only be constrained by a small number of Pn and Sn arrivals. Over the past two decades there has been a significant improvement in the seismic network in the Arctic: a difficult region to instrument due to the harsh climate, a sparsity of accessible sites (particularly at significant distances from the sea), and the expense and difficult logistics of deploying and maintaining stations. New deployments and upgrades to stations on Greenland, Svalbard, Jan Mayen, Hopen, and Bjørnøya have resulted in a sparse but stable regional seismic network which results in events down to magnitudes below 3 generating high-quality Pn and Sn signals on multiple stations. A catalogue of several hundred events in the region since 1998 has been generated using many new phase readings on stations on both sides of the spreading ridge in addition to teleseismic P phases. A Bayesian multiple event relocation has resulted in a significant reduction in the spread of hypocentre estimates for both large and small events. Whereas single event location algorithms minimize vectors of time residuals on an event-by-event basis, the Bayesloc program finds a joint probability distribution of origins, hypocentres, and corrections to traveltime predictions for large numbers of events. The solutions obtained favour those event hypotheses resulting in time residuals which are most consistent over a given source region. The relocations have been performed with different 1-D velocity models applicable to the Arctic region and hypocentres obtained using Bayesloc have been shown to be relatively insensitive to the specified velocity structure in the crust and upper mantle, even for events only constrained by regional phases. The patterns of time residuals resulting from the multiple-event location procedure provide well-constrained time correction surfaces for single-event location estimates and are sufficiently stable to identify a number of picking errors and instrumental timing anomalies. This allows for subsequent quality control of the input data and further improvement in the location estimates. We use the relocated events to form narrowband empirical steering vectors for wave fronts arriving at the SPITS array on Svalbard for azimuth and apparent velocity estimation. We demonstrate that empirical matched field parameter estimation determined by source region is a viable supplement to planewave f-k analysis, mitigating bias and obviating the need for Slowness and Azimuth Station Corrections. A database of reference events and phase arrivals is provided to facilitate further refinement of event locations and the construction of empirical signal detectors.

A low body temperature on arrival at hospital following out-of-hospital-cardiac-arrest is associated with increased mortality in the TTM-study.

PubMed

Hovdenes, Jan; Røysland, Kjetil; Nielsen, Niklas; Kjaergaard, Jesper; Wanscher, Michael; Hassager, Christian; Wetterslev, Jørn; Cronberg, Tobias; Erlinge, David; Friberg, Hans; Gasche, Yvan; Horn, Janneke; Kuiper, Michael; Pellis, Tommaso; Stammet, Pascal; Wise, Matthew P; Åneman, Anders; Bugge, Jan Frederik

2016-10-01

To investigate the association of temperature on arrival to hospital after out-of-hospital-cardiac arrest (OHCA) with the primary outcome of mortality, in the targeted temperature management (TTM) trial. The TTM trial randomized 939 patients to TTM at 33 or 36°C for 24h. Patients were categorized according to their recorded body temperature on arrival and also categorized to groups of patients being actively cooled or passively rewarmed. OHCA patients having a temperature ≤34.0°C on arrival at hospital had a significantly higher mortality compared to the OHCA patients with a higher temperature on arrival. A low body temperature on arrival was associated with a longer time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and duration of transport time to hospital. Patients who were actively cooled or passively rewarmed during the first 4h had similar mortality. In a multivariate logistic regression model mortality was significantly related to time from OHCA to ROSC, time from OHCA to advanced life support (ALS), age, sex and first registered rhythm. None of the temperature related variables (included the TTM-groups) were significantly related to mortality. OHCA patients with a temperature ≤34.0°C on arrival have a higher mortality than patients with a temperature ≥34.1°C on arrival. A low temperature on arrival is associated with a long time to ROSC. Temperature changes and TTM-groups were not associated with mortality in a regression model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement of ground water velocity using Rhodamine WT dye near Sheffield, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garklavs, George; Toler, L.G.

1985-01-01

Ground-water flow velocity was estimated in a tract of land adjacent to a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Illinois, by measuring the time-of-travel between two wells spaced 110 feet apart. Rhodamine WT dye was the principal tracer used in the test. The leading edge and peak concentrations of Rhodamine WT were well defined. A ground-water velocity of 6.9 feet per day (2,500 feet per year) was computed from the arrival time of the leading edge of the tracer cloud. (USGS)

Compilation of Local Fallout Data from Test Detonations 1945-1962 Extracted from DASA 1251. Volume I. Continental U.S. Tests

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-05-01

fallout patterns by "dot-dash" lines. The time lines are intended to give only a rough average arrival time in hours as estimated from the wind reports and...by interpolation between the H-lI and H+11 hour values. 4. The surface air pressure was 13.10 psi, the temperature -2.O°C and the relative humidity...surface air pressure was 13.04 psi, the temperature -2.8 0 C, and the relative humidity 87%. 17 i’ 17 I

Sex-Specific Arrival Times on the Breeding Grounds: Hybridizing Migratory Skuas Provide Empirical Support for the Role of Sex Ratios.

PubMed

Lisovski, Simeon; Fröhlich, Anne; von Tersch, Matthew; Klaassen, Marcel; Peter, Hans-Ulrich; Ritz, Markus S

2016-04-01

In migratory animals, protandry (earlier arrival of males on the breeding grounds) prevails over protogyny (females preceding males). In theory, sex differences in timing of arrival should be driven by the operational sex ratio, shifting toward protogyny in female-biased populations. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is, to date, lacking. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed arrival data from three populations of the long-distance migratory south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki). These populations differed in their operational sex ratio caused by the unidirectional hybridization of male south polar skuas with female brown skuas (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi). We found that arrival times were protandrous in allopatry, shifting toward protogyny in female-biased populations when breeding in sympatry. This unique observation is consistent with theoretical predictions that sex-specific arrival times should be influenced by sex ratio and that protogyny should be observed in populations with female-biased operational sex ratio.

Reproductive strategies of northern geese: Why wait?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Craig R.; Bollinger, K.S.; Densmore, R.V.; Rothe, T.C.; Petrula, M.J.; Takekawa, John Y.; Orthmeyer, D.L.

2007-01-01

Migration and reproductive strategies in waterbirds are tightly linked, with timing of arrival and onset of nesting having important consequences for reproductive success. Whether migratory waterbirds are capital or income breeders is predicated by their spring migration schedule, how long they are on breeding areas before nesting, and how adapted they are to exploiting early spring foods at northern breeding areas. However, for most species, we know little about individual migration schedules, arrival times, and duration of residence on breeding areas before nesting. To document these relationships in a northern nesting goose, we radiotracked winter-marked Tule Greater White-fronted Geese (Anser albifrons elgasi; hereafter “Tule Geese”; n = 116) from the time of their arrival in Alaska through nesting. Tule Geese arrived on coastal feeding areas in mid-April and moved to nesting locations a week later. They initiated nests 15 days (range: 6–24 days) after arrival, a period roughly equivalent to the duration of rapid follicle growth. Tule Geese that arrived the earliest were more likely to nest than geese that arrived later; early arrivals also spent more time on the breeding grounds and nested earlier than geese that arrived later. The length of the prenesting period was comparable to that of other populations of this species, but longer than for goose species that initiate rapid follicle growth before arrival on the breeding grounds. We suggest that Tule Geese nesting in more temperate climates are more likely to delay breeding to exploit local food resources than Arctic-nesting species that may be constrained by short growing seasons.

TDC-based readout electronics for real-time acquisition of high resolution PET bio-images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marino, N.; Saponara, S.; Ambrosi, G.; Baronti, F.; Bisogni, M. G.; Cerello, P.,; Ciciriello, F.; Corsi, F.; Fanucci, L.; Ionica, M.; Licciulli, F.; Marzocca, C.; Morrocchi, M.; Pennazio, F.; Roncella, R.; Santoni, C.; Wheadon, R.; Del Guerra, A.

2013-02-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) is a clinical and research tool for in vivo metabolic imaging. The demand for better image quality entails continuous research to improve PET instrumentation. In clinical applications, PET image quality benefits from the time of flight (TOF) feature. Indeed, by measuring the photons arrival time on the detectors with a resolution less than 100 ps, the annihilation point can be estimated with centimeter resolution. This leads to better noise level, contrast and clarity of detail in the images either using analytical or iterative reconstruction algorithms. This work discusses a silicon photomultiplier (SiPM)-based magnetic-field compatible TOF-PET module with depth of interaction (DOI) correction. The detector features a 3D architecture with two tiles of SiPMs coupled to a single LYSO scintillator on both its faces. The real-time front-end electronics is based on a current-mode ASIC where a low input impedance, fast current buffer allows achieving the required time resolution. A pipelined time to digital converter (TDC) measures and digitizes the arrival time and the energy of the events with a timestamp of 100 ps and 400 ps, respectively. An FPGA clusters the data and evaluates the DOI, with a simulated z resolution of the PET image of 1.4 mm FWHM.

Energy estimation of inclined air showers with help of detector responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dedenko, L. G.; Fedorova, G. F.; Fedunin, E. Yu.; Glushkov, A. V.; Kolosov, V. A.; Podgrudkov, D. A.; Pravdin, M. I.; Roganova, T. M.; Sleptsov, I. E.

2004-11-01

The method of groups of muons have been suggested to estimate the detector responses for the inclined giant air shower in terms of quark-gluon string model with the geomagnetic field taken into account. Groups are average numbers of muons of positive or negative sign in small intervals of energy, height production and direction of motion in the atmosphere estimated with help of transport equations. For every group a relativistic equation of motion has been solved with geomagnetic field and ionization losses taken into account. The response of a detector and arrival time for every group which strike a detector has been estimated. The energy of the inclined giant air shower estimated with help of calculated responses and the data observed at the Yakutsk array happens to be above 10 20 eV.

Direction of arrival estimation using blind separation of sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirari, Mehrez; Hayakawa, Masashi

1999-05-01

The estimation of direction of arrival (DOA) and polarization of an incident electromagnetic (EM) wave is of great importance in many applications. In this paper we propose a new approach for the estimation of DOA for polarized EM waves using blind separation of sources. In this approach we use a vector sensor, a sensor whose output is a complete set of the EM field components of the irradiating wave, and we reconstruct the waveforms of all the original signals that is, all the EM components of the sources' fields. From the waveform of each source we calculate its amplitude and phase and consequently calculate its DOA and polarization using the field analysis method. The separation of sources is conducted iteratively using a recurrent Hopfield-like single-layer neural network. The simulation results for two sources have been investigated. We have considered coherent and incoherent sources and also the case of varying DOAs vis-ā-vis the sensor and a varying polarization. These are cases seldom treated by other approaches even though they exist in real-world applications. With the proposed method we have obtained almost on-time tracking for the DOA and polarization of any incident sources with a significant reduction of both memory and computation costs.

Application of small-size antennas for estimation of angles of arrival of HF signals scattered by ionospheric irregularities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Qiang; Galushko, Volodymyr G.; Zalizovski, Andriy V.; Kashcheyev, Sergiy B.; Zheng, Yu

2018-05-01

A modification of the Doppler Interferometry Technique is suggested to enable estimating angles of arrival of comparatively broadband HF signals scattered by random irregularities of the ionospheric plasma with the use of small-size weakly directional antennas. The technique is based on the measurements of cross-spectra phases of the probe radiation recorded at least in three spatially separated points. The developed algorithm has been used to investigate the angular and frequency-time characteristics of HF signals propagating at frequencies above the maximum usable one (MUF) for the direct radio path Moscow-Kharkiv. The received signal spectra show presence of three families of spatial components attributed, respectively, to scattering by plasma irregularities near the middle point of the radio path, ground backscatter signals and scattering of the sounding signals by the intense plasma turbulence associated with auroral activations. It has been shown that the regions responsible for the formation of the third family components are located well inside the auroral oval. The drift velocity and direction of the auroral ionosphere plasma have been determined. The obtained estimates are consistent with the classical conception of the ionospheric plasma convection at high latitudes and do not contradict the results of investigations of the auroral ionosphere dynamics using the SuperDARN network.

Fast first arrival picking algorithm for noisy microseismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dowan; Byun, Joongmoo; Lee, Minho; Choi, Jihoon; Kim, Myungsun

2017-01-01

Most microseismic events occur during hydraulic fracturing. Thus microseismic monitoring, by recording seismic waves from microseismic events, is one of the best methods for locating the positions of hydraulic fractures. However, since microseismic events have very low energy, the data often have a low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N ratio) and it is not easy to pick the first arrival time. In this study, we suggest a new fast picking method optimised for noisy data using cross-correlation and stacking. In this method, a reference trace is selected and the time differences between the first arrivals of the reference trace and those of the other traces are computed by cross-correlation. Then, all traces are aligned with the reference trace by time shifting, and the aligned traces are summed together to produce a stacked reference trace that has a considerably improved S/N ratio. After the first arrival time of the stacked reference trace is picked, the first arrival time of each trace is calculated automatically using the time differences obtained in the cross-correlation process. In experiments with noisy synthetic data and field data, this method produces more reliable results than the traditional method, which picks the first arrival time of each noisy trace separately. In addition, the computation time is dramatically reduced.

Effect of length of residence on overweight by region of birth and age at arrival among US immigrants.

PubMed

Oza-Frank, Reena; Narayan, K M Venkat

2010-06-01

To estimate associations between the length of residence and overweight among US immigrants by region of birth and age at arrival. Cross-sectional data from the National Health Interview Survey 1997-2005 were pooled. Multivariate-adjusted prevalence and OR were computed to test associations of length of residence and overweight. United States. Immigrant adults aged 18-74 years. The odds of being overweight were three times higher in migrants from Mexico, South America, Europe, Russia, Africa and the Middle East residing in the US for >15 years than their counterparts residing in the United States for <5 years. On the other hand, migrants from the Indian subcontinent and Southeast (SE) Asia had no association between the length of residence and overweight prevalence. Among both men and women, weight differences emerged as early as 5 years after arrival among those arriving at 18-24 years of age (OR 1.5-1.8). The odds of being overweight was higher among Hispanic men arriving before the age of 18 years than the European migrants (Mexico OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.3, 2.2; South America OR 1.5, 95 % CI 1.0, 2.3), whereas the odds of being overweight among those from Africa and SE Asia was lower (OR 0.5, 95 % CI 0.3, 0.9 and OR 0.5, 95 % CI 0.4, 0.8, respectively). Among women who arrived at 25-44 years of age, the odds of being overweight among those from Africa and the Indian subcontinent was higher than the European migrants (OR 2.9, 95 % CI 1.7, 5.0 and OR 1.8, 95 % CI 1.8, 2.8, respectively). We found associations between the length of residence and overweight to vary by region of birth and age at arrival, highlighting the importance of these characteristics in assessing overweight risk among the US immigrants.

Modeling Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Data with a Constrained Local AIF.

PubMed

Duan, Chong; Kallehauge, Jesper F; Pérez-Torres, Carlos J; Bretthorst, G Larry; Beeman, Scott C; Tanderup, Kari; Ackerman, Joseph J H; Garbow, Joel R

2018-02-01

This study aims to develop a constrained local arterial input function (cL-AIF) to improve quantitative analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data by accounting for the contrast-agent bolus amplitude error in the voxel-specific AIF. Bayesian probability theory-based parameter estimation and model selection were used to compare tracer kinetic modeling employing either the measured remote-AIF (R-AIF, i.e., the traditional approach) or an inferred cL-AIF against both in silico DCE-MRI data and clinical, cervical cancer DCE-MRI data. When the data model included the cL-AIF, tracer kinetic parameters were correctly estimated from in silico data under contrast-to-noise conditions typical of clinical DCE-MRI experiments. Considering the clinical cervical cancer data, Bayesian model selection was performed for all tumor voxels of the 16 patients (35,602 voxels in total). Among those voxels, a tracer kinetic model that employed the voxel-specific cL-AIF was preferred (i.e., had a higher posterior probability) in 80 % of the voxels compared to the direct use of a single R-AIF. Maps of spatial variation in voxel-specific AIF bolus amplitude and arrival time for heterogeneous tissues, such as cervical cancer, are accessible with the cL-AIF approach. The cL-AIF method, which estimates unique local-AIF amplitude and arrival time for each voxel within the tissue of interest, provides better modeling of DCE-MRI data than the use of a single, measured R-AIF. The Bayesian-based data analysis described herein affords estimates of uncertainties for each model parameter, via posterior probability density functions, and voxel-wise comparison across methods/models, via model selection in data modeling.

Signal location using generalized linear constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Lloyd J.; Feldman, D. D.

1992-01-01

This report has presented a two-part method for estimating the directions of arrival of uncorrelated narrowband sources when there are arbitrary phase errors and angle independent gain errors. The signal steering vectors are estimated in the first part of the method; in the second part, the arrival directions are estimated. It should be noted that the second part of the method can be tailored to incorporate additional information about the nature of the phase errors. For example, if the phase errors are known to be caused solely by element misplacement, the element locations can be estimated concurrently with the DOA's by trying to match the theoretical steering vectors to the estimated ones. Simulation results suggest that, for general perturbation, the method can resolve closely spaced sources under conditions for which a standard high-resolution DOA method such as MUSIC fails.

Timing of initial arrival at the breeding site predicts age at first reproduction in a long-lived migratory bird

PubMed Central

Becker, Peter H.; Dittmann, Tobias; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter; Limmer, Bente; Ludwig, Sonja C.; Bauch, Christina; Braasch, Alexander; Wendeln, Helmut

2008-01-01

In long-lived vertebrates, individuals generally visit potential breeding areas or populations during one or more seasons before reproducing for the first time. During these years of prospecting, they select a future breeding site, colony, or mate and improve various skills and their physical condition to meet the requirements of reproduction. One precondition of successful reproduction is arrival in time on the breeding grounds. Here, we study the intricate links among the date of initial spring arrival, body mass, sex, and the age of first breeding in the common tern Sterna hirundo, a long-lived migratory colonial seabird. The study is based on a unique, individual-based, long-term dataset of sexed birds, marked with transponders, which allow recording their individual arrival, overall attendance, and clutch initiation remotely and automatically year by year over the entire lifetime at the natal colony site. We show that the seasonal date of initial arrival at the breeding grounds predicts the individual age at first reproduction, which mostly occurs years later. Late first-time arrivals remain delayed birds throughout subsequent years. Our findings reveal that timing of arrival at the site of reproduction and timing of reproduction itself are coherent parameters of individual quality, which are linked with the prospects of the breeding career and may have consequences for fitness. PMID:18711134

Spatiotemporal changes of seismic attenuation caused by injected CO2 at the Frio-II pilot site, Dayton, TX, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tieyuan; Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan B.; Daley, Thomas M.

2017-09-01

A continuous active source seismic monitoring data set was collected with crosswell geometry during CO2 injection at the Frio-II brine pilot, near Liberty, TX. Previous studies have shown that spatiotemporal changes in the P wave first arrival time reveal the movement of the injected CO2 plume in the storage zone. To further constrain the CO2 saturation, particularly at higher saturation levels, we investigate spatial-temporal changes in the seismic attenuation of the first arrivals. The attenuation changes over the injection period are estimated by the amount of the centroid frequency shift computed by local time-frequency analysis. We observe that (1) at receivers above the injection zone seismic attenuation does not change in a physical trend; (2) at receivers in the injection zone attenuation sharply increases following injection and peaks at specific points varying with distributed receivers, which is consistent with observations from time delays of first arrivals; then, (3) attenuation decreases over the injection time. The attenuation change exhibits a bell-shaped pattern during CO2 injection. Under Frio-II field reservoir conditions, White's patchy saturation model can quantitatively explain both the P wave velocity and attenuation response observed. We have combined the velocity and attenuation change data in a crossplot format that is useful for model-data comparison and determining patch size. Our analysis suggests that spatial-temporal attenuation change is not only an indicator of the movement and saturation of CO2 plumes, even at large saturations, but also can quantitatively constrain CO2 plume saturation when used jointly with seismic velocity.

Improvement to Airport Throughput Using Intelligent Arrival Scheduling and an Expanded Planning Horizon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaab, Patricia C.

2012-01-01

The first phase of this study investigated the amount of time a flight can be delayed or expedited within the Terminal Airspace using only speed changes. The Arrival Capacity Calculator analysis tool was used to predict the time adjustment envelope for standard descent arrivals and then for CDA arrivals. Results ranged from 0.77 to 5.38 minutes. STAR routes were configured for the ACES simulation, and a validation of the ACC results was conducted comparing the maximum predicted time adjustments to those seen in ACES. The final phase investigated full runway-to-runway trajectories using ACES. The radial distance used by the arrival scheduler was incrementally increased from 50 to 150 nautical miles (nmi). The increased Planning Horizon radii allowed the arrival scheduler to arrange, path stretch, and speed-adjust flights to more fully load the arrival stream. The average throughput for the high volume portion of the day increased from 30 aircraft per runway for the 50 nmi radius to 40 aircraft per runway for the 150 nmi radius for a traffic set representative of high volume 2018. The recommended radius for the arrival scheduler s Planning Horizon was found to be 130 nmi, which allowed more than 95% loading of the arrival stream.

Resource-Bounded Information Acquisition and Learning

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

candidate features arrive one at a time, and the learner’s task is to select a ‘best so far’ set of features from streaming features. Krause et al...on Artificial Intelligence. [31] Gatterbauer, Wolfgang . Estimating required recall for successful knowledge acquisition from the web. In Proceedings of...the 15th international conference on World Wide Web (New York, NY, USA, 2006), WWW ’06, ACM, pp. 969– 970. [32] Gatterbauer, Wolfgang . Rules of thumb

Estimation of Uncertainties of Full Moment Tensors

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-06

Nevada Test Site (tab. 1 of Ford et al., 2009). Figure 1 shows the three regions and the stations used within the moment tensor inversions . For the...and additional bandpass filtering, were applied during the moment tensor inversions . We use high-frequency P waves for the Uturuncu and NTS events...reliable when we align the P waves on the observed P arrival time. 3.2 Methods Seismic moment tensor inversion requires specifying a misfit function

Stress drop variation of M > 4 earthquakes on the Blanco oceanic transform fault using a phase coherence method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J. R.; Hawthorne, J.; Rost, S.; Wright, T. J.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes on oceanic transform faults often show unusual behaviour. They tend to occur in swarms, have large numbers of foreshocks, and have high stress drops. We estimate stress drops for approximately 60 M > 4 earthquakes along the Blanco oceanic transform fault, a right-lateral fault separating the Juan de Fuca and Pacific plates offshore of Oregon. We find stress drops with a median of 4.4±19.3MPa and examine how they vary with earthquake moment. We calculate stress drops using a recently developed method based on inter-station phase coherence. We compare seismic records of co-located earthquakes at a range of stations. At each station, we apply an empirical Green's function (eGf) approach to remove phase path effects and isolate the relative apparent source time functions. The apparent source time functions at each earthquake should vary among stations at periods shorter than a P wave's travel time across the earthquake rupture area. Therefore we compute the rupture length of the larger earthquake by identifying the frequency at which the relative apparent source time functions start to vary among stations, leading to low inter-station phase coherence. We determine a stress drop from the rupture length and moment of the larger earthquake. Our initial stress drop estimates increase with increasing moment, suggesting that earthquakes on the Blanco fault are not self-similar. However, these stress drops may be biased by several factors, including depth phases, trace alignment, and source co-location. We find that the inclusion of depth phases (such as pP) in the analysis time window has a negligible effect on the phase coherence of our relative apparent source time functions. We find that trace alignment must be accurate to within 0.05 s to allow us to identify variations in the apparent source time functions at periods relevant for M > 4 earthquakes. We check that the alignments are accurate enough by comparing P wave arrival times across groups of earthquakes. Finally, we note that the eGf path effect removal will be unsuccessful if earthquakes are too far apart. We therefore calculate relative earthquake locations from our estimated differential P wave arrival times, then we examine how our stress drop estimates vary with inter-earthquake distance.

Characteristics of fin whale vocalizations recorded on instruments in the northeast Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weirathmueller, Maria Michelle Josephine

This thesis focuses on fin whale vocalizations recorded on ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, using data collected between 2003 and 2013. OBSs are a valuable, and largely untapped resource for the passive acoustic monitoring of large baleen whales. This dissertation is divided into three parts, each of which uses the recordings of fin whale vocalizations to better understand their calling behaviors and distributions. The first study describes the development of a technique to extract source levels of fin whale vocalizations from OBS recordings. Source levels were estimated using data collected on a network of eight OBSs in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. The acoustic pressure levels measured at the instruments were adjusted for the propagation path between the calling whales and the instruments using the call location and estimating losses along the acoustic travel path. A total of 1241 calls were used to estimate an average source level of 189 +/-5.8 dB re 1uPa 1m. This variability is largely attributed to uncertainties in the horizontal and vertical position of the fin whale at the time of each call, and the effect of these uncertainties on subsequent calculations. The second study describes a semi-automated method for obtaining horizontal ranges to vocalizing fin whales using the timing and relative amplitude of multipath arrivals. A matched filter is used to detect fin whale calls and pick the relative times and amplitudes of multipath arrivals. Ray-based propagation models are used to predict multipath times and amplitudes as function of range. Because the direct and first multiple arrivals are not always observed, three hypotheses for the paths of the observed arrivals are considered; the solution is the hypothesis and range that optimizes the fit to the data. Ray-theoretical amplitudes are not accurate and solutions are improved by determining amplitudes from the observations using a bootstrap method. Data from ocean bottom seismometers at two locations are used to assess the method: one on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, a bathymetrically complex mid-ocean ridge environment, and the other at a flat sedimented location in the Cascadia Basin. At both sites, the method is reliable up to 4 km range which is sufficient to enable estimates of call density. The third study explores spatial and temporal trends in fin whale calling patterns. The frequency and inter-pulse interval of fin whale 20 Hz vocalizations were observed over 10 years from 2003-2013 on bottom mounted hydrophones and OBSs in the northeast Pacific Ocean. The instrument locations extended from 40°N and 130°W to 125°W with water depths ranging from 1500-4000 m. The inter-pulse interval (IPI) of fin whale song sequences was observed to increase at a rate of 0.59 seconds/year over the decade of observation. During the same time period, peak frequency decreased at a rate of 0.16 Hz/year. Two primary call patterns were observed. During the earlier years, the more commonly observed pattern had a single frequency and single IPI. In later years, a doublet pattern emerged, with two dominant frequencies and two IPIs. Many call sequences in the intervening years appeared to represent a transitional state between the two patterns. The overall trend was consistent across the entire geographical span, although some regional differences exist.

Delay time between onset of ischemic stroke and hospital arrival.

PubMed

Biller, J; Patrick, J T; Shepard, A; Adams, H P

1993-01-01

Some current experimental protocols for acute ischemic stroke require the initiation of treatment within hours of the onset of stroke symptoms. We prospectively evaluated 30 patients with acute ischemic stroke based on clinical and computed tomography findings. The time between the onset of stroke symptoms and arrival in the emergency room and subsequently on the stroke service was determined. Within 3, 6,12, and 24 h of the onset of stroke symptoms, 16 (53%), 19 (63%), 22 (73%), and 25 (83%) patients had arrived at the emergency room and 0 (0%), 4 (13%), 14 (47%), and 22 (73%) of them on the stroke service, respectively. From the onset of stroke symptoms, the mean arrival time to the emergency room was 24 h (range, 30 min to 144 h) and to the stroke service was 61 h (range, 4-150 h). The mean time between arrival in the emergency room and stroke service was 8.6 h (range, 0-47 h). Even though 53% and 63% of our patients arrived at the emergency room within 3 and 6 h of the onset of stroke symptoms, only 0% and 13% of them arrived on the stroke service within the same time period for the initiation of treatment, respectively. Thus, in order for more patients to qualify for current experimental protocols, they must arrive on the stroke service more quickly or treatment must be initiated in the emergency room. Copyright © 1993. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Estimating crustal thickness using SsPmp in regions covered by low-velocity sediments: Imaging the Moho beneath the Southeastern Suture of the Appalachian Margin Experiment (SESAME) array, SE Atlantic Coastal Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, E. Horry, Jr.; Hawman, Robert B.; Fischer, Karen M.; Wagner, Lara S.

2016-09-01

Deconvolved waveforms for two earthquakes (Mw: 6.0 and 5.8) show clear postcritical SsPmp arrivals for broadband stations deployed across the coastal plain of Georgia, allowing mapping of crustal thickness in spite of strong reverberations generated by low-velocity sediments. Precritical SsPmp arrivals are also identified. For a basement in which velocity increases linearly with depth, a bootstrapped grid search suggests an average basement velocity of 6.5 ± 0.1 km/s and basement thickness of 29.8 ± 2.0 km. Corresponding normal-incidence Moho two-way times (including sediments) are 10.6 ± 0.6 s, consistent with times for events interpreted as Moho reflections on coincident active-source reflection profiles. Modeling of an underplated mafic layer (Vp = 7.2-7.4 km/s) using travel time constraints from SsPmp data and vertical-incidence Moho reflection times yields a total basement thickness of 30-35 km and average basement velocity of 6.35-6.65 km/s for an underplate thickness of 0-15 km.

Application of a deconvolution method for identifying burst amplitudes and arrival times in Alcator C-Mod far SOL plasma fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theodorsen, Audun; Garcia, Odd Erik; Kube, Ralph; Labombard, Brian; Terry, Jim

2017-10-01

In the far scrape-off layer (SOL), radial motion of filamentary structures leads to excess transport of particles and heat. Amplitudes and arrival times of these filaments have previously been studied by conditional averaging in single-point measurements from Langmuir Probes and Gas Puff Imaging (GPI). Conditional averaging can be problematic: the cutoff for large amplitudes is mostly chosen by convention; the conditional windows used may influence the arrival time distribution; and the amplitudes cannot be separated from a background. Previous work has shown that SOL fluctuations are well described by a stochastic model consisting of a super-position of pulses with fixed shape and randomly distributed amplitudes and arrival times. The model can be formulated as a pulse shape convolved with a train of delta pulses. By choosing a pulse shape consistent with the power spectrum of the fluctuation time series, Richardson-Lucy deconvolution can be used to recover the underlying amplitudes and arrival times of the delta pulses. We apply this technique to both L and H-mode GPI data from the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. The pulse arrival times are shown to be uncorrelated and uniformly distributed, consistent with a Poisson process, and the amplitude distribution has an exponential tail.

A comparison of methods to estimate seismic phase delays--Numerical examples for coda wave interferometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mikesell, T. Dylan; Malcolm, Alison E.; Yang, Di; Haney, Matthew M.

2015-01-01

Time-shift estimation between arrivals in two seismic traces before and after a velocity perturbation is a crucial step in many seismic methods. The accuracy of the estimated velocity perturbation location and amplitude depend on this time shift. Windowed cross correlation and trace stretching are two techniques commonly used to estimate local time shifts in seismic signals. In the work presented here, we implement Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to estimate the warping function – a vector of local time shifts that globally minimizes the misfit between two seismic traces. We illustrate the differences of all three methods compared to one another using acoustic numerical experiments. We show that DTW is comparable to or better than the other two methods when the velocity perturbation is homogeneous and the signal-to-noise ratio is high. When the signal-to-noise ratio is low, we find that DTW and windowed cross correlation are more accurate than the stretching method. Finally, we show that the DTW algorithm has better time resolution when identifying small differences in the seismic traces for a model with an isolated velocity perturbation. These results impact current methods that utilize not only time shifts between (multiply) scattered waves, but also amplitude and decoherence measurements. DTW is a new tool that may find new applications in seismology and other geophysical methods (e.g., as a waveform inversion misfit function).

An Exploratory Study of Runway Arrival Procedures: Time Based Arrival and Self-Spacing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houston, Vincent E.; Barmore, Bryan

2009-01-01

The ability of a flight crew to deliver their aircraft to its arrival runway on time is important to the overall efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS). Over the past several years, the NAS has been stressed almost to its limits resulting in problems such as airport congestion, flight delay, and flight cancellation to reach levels that have never been seen before in the NAS. It is predicted that this situation will worsen by the year 2025, due to an anticipated increase in air traffic operations to one-and-a-half to three times its current level. Improved arrival efficiency, in terms of both capacity and environmental impact, is an important part of improving NAS operations. One way to improve the arrival performance of an aircraft is to enable the flight crew to precisely deliver their aircraft to a specified point at either a specified time or specified interval relative to another aircraft. This gives the flight crew more control to make the necessary adjustments to their aircraft s performance with less tactical control from the controller; it may also decrease the controller s workload. Two approaches to precise time navigation have been proposed: Time-Based Arrivals (e.g., required times of arrival) and Self-Spacing. Time-Based Arrivals make use of an aircraft s Flight Management System (FMS) to deliver the aircraft to the runway threshold at a given time. Self-Spacing enables the flight crew to achieve an ATC assigned spacing goals at the runway threshold relative to another aircraft. The Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), a multi-agency initiative established to plan and coordinate the development of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), has asked for data for both of these concepts to facilitate future research and development. This paper provides a first look at the delivery performance of these two concepts under various initial and environmental conditions in an air traffic simulation environment.

Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Jeff; Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin

2016-01-01

Tsunami-evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically based on maximum evacuation zones for a single scenario or a composite of sources; however, this approach may over-evacuate a community and overly disrupt the local economy and strain emergency-service resources. To minimize the potential for future over-evacuations, multiple evacuation zones based on arrival time and inundation extent are being developed for California coastal communities. We use the coastal city of Alameda, California (USA), as a case study to explore population and evacuation implications associated with multiple tsunami-evacuation zones. We use geospatial analyses to estimate the number and type of people in each tsunami-evacuation zone and anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to estimate pedestrian travel time out of each zone. Results demonstrate that there are tens of thousands of individuals in tsunami-evacuation zones on the two main islands of Alameda, but they will likely have sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Quality of life could be impacted by the high number of government offices, schools, day-care centers, and medical offices in certain evacuation zones and by potentially high population density at one identified safe area after an evacuation. Multi-jurisdictional evacuation planning may be warranted, given that many at-risk individuals may need to evacuate to neighboring jurisdictions. The use of maximum evacuation zones for local tsunami sources may be warranted given the limited amount of available time to confidently recommend smaller zones which would result in fewer evacuees; however, this approach may also result in over-evacuation and the incorrect perception that successful evacuations are unlikely.

A multivariable assessment quantifying effects of cohort-level factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk in cohorts of U.S. commercial feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Babcock, A H; Cernicchiaro, N; White, B J; Dubnicka, S R; Thomson, D U; Ives, S E; Scott, H M; Milliken, G A; Renter, D G

2013-01-01

Economic losses due to cattle mortality and culling have a substantial impact on the feedlot industry. Since criteria for culling may vary and may affect measures of cumulative mortality within cattle cohorts, it is important to assess both mortality and culling when evaluating cattle losses over time and among feedlots. To date, there are no published multivariable assessments of factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk. Our objective was to evaluate combined mortality and culling losses in feedlot cattle cohorts and quantify effects of commonly measured cohort-level risk factors (weight at feedlot arrival, gender, and month of feedlot arrival) using data routinely collected by commercial feedlots. We used retrospective data representing 8,904,965 animals in 54,416 cohorts from 16 U.S. feedlots from 2000 to 2007. The sum of mortality and culling counts for each cohort (given the number of cattle at risk) was used to generate the outcome of interest, the cumulative incidence of combined mortality and culling. Associations between this outcome variable and cohort-level risk factors were evaluated using a mixed effects multivariable negative binomial regression model with random effects for feedlot, year, month and week of arrival. Mean arrival weight of the cohort, gender, and arrival month and a three-way interaction (and corresponding two-way interactions) among arrival weight, gender and month were significantly (P<0.05) associated with the outcome. Results showed that as the mean arrival weight of the cohort increased, mortality and culling risk decreased, but effects of arrival weight were modified both by the gender of the cohort and the month of feedlot arrival. There was a seasonal pattern in combined mortality and culling risk for light and middle-weight male and female cohorts, with a significantly (P<0.05) higher risk for cattle arriving at the feedlot in spring and summer (March-September) than in cattle arriving during fall, and winter months (November-February). Our results quantified effects of covariate patterns that have been heretofore difficult to fully evaluate in smaller scale studies; in addition, they illustrated the importance of utilizing multivariable approaches when quantifying risk factors in heterogeneous feedlot populations. Estimated effects from our model could be useful for managing financial risks associated with adverse health events based on data that are routinely available. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional tracking of Cuvier's beaked whales' echolocation sounds using nested hydrophone arrays.

PubMed

Gassmann, Martin; Wiggins, Sean M; Hildebrand, John A

2015-10-01

Cuvier's beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) were tracked using two volumetric small-aperture (∼1 m element spacing) hydrophone arrays, embedded into a large-aperture (∼1 km element spacing) seafloor hydrophone array of five nodes. This array design can reduce the minimum number of nodes that are needed to record the arrival of a strongly directional echolocation sound from 5 to 2, while providing enough time-differences of arrivals for a three-dimensional localization without depending on any additional information such as multipath arrivals. To illustrate the capabilities of this technique, six encounters of up to three Cuvier's beaked whales were tracked over a two-month recording period within an area of 20 km(2) in the Southern California Bight. Encounter periods ranged from 11 min to 33 min. Cuvier's beaked whales were found to reduce the time interval between echolocation clicks while alternating between two inter-click-interval regimes during their descent towards the seafloor. Maximum peak-to-peak source levels of 179 and 224 dB re 1 μPa @ 1 m were estimated for buzz sounds and on-axis echolocation clicks (directivity index = 30 dB), respectively. Source energy spectra of the on-axis clicks show significant frequency components between 70 and 90 kHz, in addition to their typically noted FM upsweep at 40-60 kHz.

Processing of Antenna-Array Signals on the Basis of the Interference Model Including a Rank-Deficient Correlation Matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodionov, A. A.; Turchin, V. I.

2017-06-01

We propose a new method of signal processing in antenna arrays, which is called the Maximum-Likelihood Signal Classification. The proposed method is based on the model in which interference includes a component with a rank-deficient correlation matrix. Using numerical simulation, we show that the proposed method allows one to ensure variance of the estimated arrival angle of the plane wave, which is close to the Cramer-Rao lower boundary and more efficient than the best-known MUSIC method. It is also shown that the proposed technique can be efficiently used for estimating the time dependence of the useful signal.

Analysis of Deep Seafloor Arrivals Observed on NPAL04

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-03

transmission station to the scattering point (black line) to compute the time spent on the PE-predicted path to the scattering point. This time would...arrives at the OBSs at times corresponding to caustics of the PE predicted time fronts, there are large amplitude, late arrivals that occur between... caustics and even after the PE predicted coda. Similar analysis was done for T500 to T2300 with similar results and is discussed in Section 4 of

Methods for Room Acoustic Analysis and Synthesis using a Monopole-Dipole Microphone Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abel, J. S.; Begault, Durand R.; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

In recent work, a microphone array consisting of an omnidirectional microphone and colocated dipole microphones having orthogonally aligned dipole axes was used to examine the directional nature of a room impulse response. The arrival of significant reflections was indicated by peaks in the power of the omnidirectional microphone response; reflection direction of arrival was revealed by comparing zero-lag crosscorrelations between the omnidirectional response and the dipole responses to the omnidirectional response power to estimate arrival direction cosines with respect to the dipole axes.

Improved estimation of commuter waiting times using headway and commuter boarding information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Muhamad Azfar; Jayaraman, Vasundhara; Kwek, Hyen Chee; Tan, Kian Heong; Lee Kee Khoon, Gary; Monterola, Christopher

2018-07-01

The average amount of waiting time spent by commuters is one of the key indicators of service quality for public bus operations. While actual measurements of actual waiting time is difficult to be done en masse, models of waiting time can be derived from bus headways and these models have been adopted by transport planners in monitoring and regulating service reliability of operators. However, these models are founded on several assumptions on the patterns of commuter arrival which may not be applicable for bus services that experience high demand and heavily fluctuating commuter patterns. Given the availability of granular data on commuter boarding from automated fare collection systems, we propose a new methodology to better estimate the average waiting time of commuters. The formulation is anchored and validated using a three-month dataset from ten selected bus routes in Singapore. Finally, we discuss how our new measure allows for minimization of commuter waiting time through schedule optimization.

Prediction of Shock Arrival Times from CME and Flare Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nunez, Marlon; Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa; Pulkkinen, Antti

2016-01-01

This paper presents the Shock ARrival Model (SARM) for predicting shock arrival times for distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU by using coronal mass ejections (CME) and flare data. SARM is an aerodynamic drag model described by a differential equation that has been calibrated with a dataset of 120 shocks observed from 1997 to 2010 by minimizing the mean absolute error (MAE), normalized to 1 AU. SARM should be used with CME data (radial, earthward or plane-of-sky speeds), and flare data (peak flux, duration, and location). In the case of 1 AU, the MAE and the median of absolute errors were 7.0 h and 5.0 h respectively, using the available CMEflare data. The best results for 1 AU (an MAE of 5.8 h) were obtained using both CME data, either radial or cone-model-estimated speeds, and flare data. For the prediction of shock arrivals at distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU, the normalized MAE and the median were 7.1 h and 5.1 h respectively, using the available CMEflare data. SARM was also calibrated to be used with CME data alone or flare data alone, obtaining normalized MAE errors of 8.9 h and 8.6 h respectively for all shock events. The model verification was carried out with an additional dataset of 20 shocks observed from 2010 to 2012 with radial CME speeds to compare SARM with the empirical ESA model [Gopalswamy et al., 2005a] and the numerical MHD-based ENLIL model [Odstrcil et al., 2004]. The results show that the ENLIL's MAE was lower than the SARM's MAE, which was lower than the ESA's MAE. The SARM's best results were obtained when both flare and true CME speeds were used.

Source localization of narrow band signals in multipath environments, with application to marine mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valtierra, Robert Daniel

Passive acoustic localization has benefited from many major developments and has become an increasingly important focus point in marine mammal research. Several challenges still remain. This work seeks to address several of these challenges such as tracking the calling depths of baleen whales. In this work, data from an array of widely spaced Marine Acoustic Recording Units (MARUs) was used to achieve three dimensional localization by combining the methods Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) and Direct-Reflected Time Difference of Arrival (DRTD) along with a newly developed autocorrelation technique. TDOA was applied to data for two dimensional (latitude and longitude) localization and depth was resolved using DRTD. Previously, DRTD had been limited to pulsed broadband signals, such as sperm whale or dolphin echolocation, where individual direct and reflected signals are separated in time. Due to the length of typical baleen whale vocalizations, individual multipath signal arrivals can overlap making time differences of arrival difficult to resolve. This problem can be solved using an autocorrelation, which can extract reflection information from overlapping signals. To establish this technique, a derivation was made to model the autocorrelation of a direct signal and its overlapping reflection. The model was exploited to derive performance limits allowing for prediction of the minimum resolvable direct-reflected time difference for a known signal type. The dependence on signal parameters (sweep rate, call duration) was also investigated. The model was then verified using both recorded and simulated data from two analysis cases for North Atlantic right whales (NARWs, Eubalaena glacialis) and humpback whales (Megaptera noveaengliae). The newly developed autocorrelation technique was then combined with DRTD and tested using data from playback transmissions to localize an acoustic transducer at a known depth and location. The combined DRTD-autocorrelation methods enabled calling depth and range estimations of a vocalizing NARW and humpback whale in two separate cases. The DRTD-autocorrelation method was then combined with TDOA to create a three dimensional track of a NARW in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary. Results from these experiments illustrated the potential of the combined methods to successfully resolve baleen calling depths in three dimensions.

Ultrasound shear wave simulation based on nonlinear wave propagation and Wigner-Ville Distribution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidari, Pooya Sobhe; Alirezaie, Javad; Tavakkoli, Jahan

2017-03-01

This paper presents a method for modeling and simulation of shear wave generation from a nonlinear Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI) that is considered as a distributed force applied at the focal region of a HIFU transducer radiating in nonlinear regime. The shear wave propagation is simulated by solving the Navier's equation from the distributed nonlinear ARFI as the source of the shear wave. Then, the Wigner-Ville Distribution (WVD) as a time-frequency analysis method is used to detect the shear wave at different local points in the region of interest. The WVD results in an estimation of the shear wave time of arrival, its mean frequency and local attenuation which can be utilized to estimate medium's shear modulus and shear viscosity using the Voigt model.

Real Time Earthquake Information System in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doi, K.; Kato, T.

2003-12-01

An early earthquake notification system in Japan had been developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a governmental organization responsible for issuing earthquake information and tsunami forecasts. The system was primarily developed for prompt provision of a tsunami forecast to the public with locating an earthquake and estimating its magnitude as quickly as possible. Years after, a system for a prompt provision of seismic intensity information as indices of degrees of disasters caused by strong ground motion was also developed so that concerned governmental organizations can decide whether it was necessary for them to launch emergency response or not. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs. 1) Prompt report of occurrence of a large earthquake and major seismic intensities caused by the earthquake in about two minutes after the earthquake occurrence. 2) Tsunami forecast in around three minutes. 3) Information on expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around five minutes. 4) Information on a hypocenter and a magnitude of the earthquake, the seismic intensity at each observation station, the times of high tides in addition to the expected tsunami arrival times in 5-7 minutes. To issue information above, JMA has established; - An advanced nationwide seismic network with about 180 stations for seismic wave observation and about 3,400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation including about 2,800 seismic intensity stations maintained by local governments, - Data telemetry networks via landlines and partly via a satellite communication link, - Real-time data processing techniques, for example, the automatic calculation of earthquake location and magnitude, the database driven method for quantitative tsunami estimation, and - Dissemination networks, via computer-to-computer communications and facsimile through dedicated telephone lines. JMA operationally monitors earthquake data and analyzes earthquake activities and tsunami occurrence round-the-clock on a real-time basis. In addition to the above, JMA has been developing a system of Nowcast Earthquake Information which can provide its users with occurrence of an earthquake prior to arrival of strong ground motion for a decade. Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, is preparing a demonstrative experiment in collaboration with JMA, for a better utilization of Nowcast Earthquake Information to apply actual measures to reduce earthquake disasters caused by strong ground motion.

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, Alexandra M.; Mays, M. Leila; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Jian, Lan K.; Odstrcil, Dusan; MacNeice, Peter

2018-03-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

A comprehensive review of prehospital and in-hospital delay times in acute stroke care.

PubMed

Evenson, K R; Foraker, R E; Morris, D L; Rosamond, W D

2009-06-01

The purpose of this study was to systematically review and summarize prehospital and in-hospital stroke evaluation and treatment delay times. We identified 123 unique peer-reviewed studies published from 1981 to 2007 of prehospital and in-hospital delay time for evaluation and treatment of patients with stroke, transient ischemic attack, or stroke-like symptoms. Based on studies of 65 different population groups, the weighted Poisson regression indicated a 6.0% annual decline (P<0.001) in hours/year for prehospital delay, defined from symptom onset to emergency department arrival. For in-hospital delay, the weighted Poisson regression models indicated no meaningful changes in delay time from emergency department arrival to emergency department evaluation (3.1%, P=0.49 based on 12 population groups). There was a 10.2% annual decline in hours/year from emergency department arrival to neurology evaluation or notification (P=0.23 based on 16 population groups) and a 10.7% annual decline in hours/year for delay time from emergency department arrival to initiation of computed tomography (P=0.11 based on 23 population groups). Only one study reported on times from arrival to computed tomography scan interpretation, two studies on arrival to drug administration, and no studies on arrival to transfer to an in-patient setting, precluding generalizations. Prehospital delay continues to contribute the largest proportion of delay time. The next decade provides opportunities to establish more effective community-based interventions worldwide. It will be crucial to have effective stroke surveillance systems in place to better understand and improve both prehospital and in-hospital delays for acute stroke care.

Detecting Abrupt Changes in a Piecewise Locally Stationary Time Series

PubMed Central

Last, Michael; Shumway, Robert

2007-01-01

Non-stationary time series arise in many settings, such as seismology, speech-processing, and finance. In many of these settings we are interested in points where a model of local stationarity is violated. We consider the problem of how to detect these change-points, which we identify by finding sharp changes in the time-varying power spectrum. Several different methods are considered, and we find that the symmetrized Kullback-Leibler information discrimination performs best in simulation studies. We derive asymptotic normality of our test statistic, and consistency of estimated change-point locations. We then demonstrate the technique on the problem of detecting arrival phases in earthquakes. PMID:19190715

Progress toward Consensus Estimates of Regional Glacier Mass Balances for IPCC AR5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arendt, A. A.; Gardner, A. S.; Cogley, J. G.

2011-12-01

Glaciers are potentially large contributors to rising sea level. Since the last IPCC report in 2007 (AR4), there has been a widespread increase in the use of geodetic observations from satellite and airborne platforms to complement field observations of glacier mass balance, as well as significant improvements in the global glacier inventory. Here we summarize our ongoing efforts to integrate data from multiple sources to arrive at a consensus estimate for each region, and to quantify uncertainties in those estimates. We will use examples from Alaska to illustrate methods for combining Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), elevation differencing and field observations into a single time series with related uncertainty estimates. We will pay particular attention to reconciling discrepancies between GRACE estimates from multiple processing centers. We will also investigate the extent to which improvements in the glacier inventory affect the accuracy of our regional mass balances.

Identifying and Correcting Timing Errors at Seismic Stations in and around Iran

DOE PAGES

Syracuse, Ellen Marie; Phillips, William Scott; Maceira, Monica; ...

2017-09-06

A fundamental component of seismic research is the use of phase arrival times, which are central to event location, Earth model development, and phase identification, as well as derived products. Hence, the accuracy of arrival times is crucial. However, errors in the timing of seismic waveforms and the arrival times based on them may go unidentified by the end user, particularly when seismic data are shared between different organizations. Here, we present a method used to analyze travel-time residuals for stations in and around Iran to identify time periods that are likely to contain station timing problems. For the 14more » stations with the strongest evidence of timing errors lasting one month or longer, timing corrections are proposed to address the problematic time periods. Finally, two additional stations are identified with incorrect locations in the International Registry of Seismograph Stations, and one is found to have erroneously reported arrival times in 2011.« less

The influence of random element displacement on DOA estimates obtained with (Khatri-Rao-)root-MUSIC.

PubMed

Inghelbrecht, Veronique; Verhaevert, Jo; van Hecke, Tanja; Rogier, Hendrik

2014-11-11

Although a wide range of direction of arrival (DOA) estimation algorithms has been described for a diverse range of array configurations, no specific stochastic analysis framework has been established to assess the probability density function of the error on DOA estimates due to random errors in the array geometry. Therefore, we propose a stochastic collocation method that relies on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion to connect the statistical distribution of random position errors to the resulting distribution of the DOA estimates. We apply this technique to the conventional root-MUSIC and the Khatri-Rao-root-MUSIC methods. According to Monte-Carlo simulations, this novel approach yields a speedup by a factor of more than 100 in terms of CPU-time for a one-dimensional case and by a factor of 56 for a two-dimensional case.

Identify source location and release time for pollutants undergoing super-diffusion and decay: Parameter analysis and model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Sun, HongGuang; Lu, Bingqing; Garrard, Rhiannon; Neupauer, Roseanna M.

2017-09-01

Backward models have been applied for four decades by hydrologists to identify the source of pollutants undergoing Fickian diffusion, while analytical tools are not available for source identification of super-diffusive pollutants undergoing decay. This technical note evaluates analytical solutions for the source location and release time of a decaying contaminant undergoing super-diffusion using backward probability density functions (PDFs), where the forward model is the space fractional advection-dispersion equation with decay. Revisit of the well-known MADE-2 tracer test using parameter analysis shows that the peak backward location PDF can predict the tritium source location, while the peak backward travel time PDF underestimates the tracer release time due to the early arrival of tracer particles at the detection well in the maximally skewed, super-diffusive transport. In addition, the first-order decay adds additional skewness toward earlier arrival times in backward travel time PDFs, resulting in a younger release time, although this impact is minimized at the MADE-2 site due to tritium's half-life being relatively longer than the monitoring period. The main conclusion is that, while non-trivial backward techniques are required to identify pollutant source location, the pollutant release time can and should be directly estimated given the speed of the peak resident concentration for super-diffusive pollutants with or without decay.

Localization of marine mammals near Hawaii using an acoustic propagation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiemann, Christopher O.; Porter, Michael B.; Frazer, L. Neil

2004-06-01

Humpback whale songs were recorded on six widely spaced receivers of the Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) hydrophone network near Hawaii during March of 2001. These recordings were used to test a new approach to localizing the whales that exploits the time-difference of arrival (time lag) of their calls as measured between receiver pairs in the PMRF network. The usual technique for estimating source position uses the intersection of hyperbolic curves of constant time lag, but a drawback of this approach is its assumption of a constant wave speed and straight-line propagation to associate acoustic travel time with range. In contrast to hyperbolic fixing, the algorithm described here uses an acoustic propagation model to account for waveguide and multipath effects when estimating travel time from hypothesized source positions. A comparison between predicted and measured time lags forms an ambiguity surface, or visual representation of the most probable whale position in a horizontal plane around the array. This is an important benefit because it allows for automated peak extraction to provide a location estimate. Examples of whale localizations using real and simulated data in algorithms of increasing complexity are provided.

Hardware-software complex of informing passengers of forecasted route transport arrival at stop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pogrebnoy, V. Yu; Pushkarev, M. I.; Fadeev, A. S.

2017-02-01

The paper presents the hardware-software complex of informing the passengers of the forecasted route transport arrival. A client-server architecture of the forecasting information system is represented and an electronic information board prototype is described. The scheme of information transfer and processing, starting with receiving navigating telemetric data from a transport vehicle and up to the time of passenger public transport arrival at the stop, as well as representation of the information on the electronic board is illustrated and described. Methods and algorithms of determination of the transport vehicle current location in the city route network are considered in detail. The description of the proposed forecasting model of transport vehicle arrival time at the stop is given. The obtained result is applied in Tomsk for forecasting and displaying the arrival time information at the stops.

Spatial aliasing for efficient direction-of-arrival estimation based on steering vector reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Feng-Gang; Cao, Bin; Rong, Jia-Jia; Shen, Yi; Jin, Ming

2016-12-01

A new technique is proposed to reduce the computational complexity of the multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm for direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimate using a uniform linear array (ULA). The steering vector of the ULA is reconstructed as the Kronecker product of two other steering vectors, and a new cost function with spatial aliasing at hand is derived. Thanks to the estimation ambiguity of this spatial aliasing, mirror angles mathematically relating to the true DOAs are generated, based on which the full spectral search involved in the MUSIC algorithm is highly compressed into a limited angular sector accordingly. Further complexity analysis and performance studies are conducted by computer simulations, which demonstrate that the proposed estimator requires an extremely reduced computational burden while it shows a similar accuracy to the standard MUSIC.

Analysis of Operation TEAPOT nuclear test BEE radiological and meteorological data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinn, V.E.

This report describes the Weather Service Nuclear Support Office (WSNSO) analyses of the radiological and meteorological data collected for the BEE nuclear test of Operation TEAPOT. Inconsistencies in the radiological data and their resolution are discussed. The methods of normalizing the radiological data to a standard time and estimating fallout-arrival times are presented. The meteorological situations on event day and the following day are described. A comparison of the WSNSO fallout analysis with an analysis performed in the 1950's is presented. The radiological data used to derive the WSNSO fallout pattern are tabulated in an appendix.

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood localization solver

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2016-09-23

A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with acoustic transmitters and vocalizing marine mammals to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives and support Marine Renewable Energy. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developed using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.

Efficient Learning of Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Models for Disease Progression

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu-Ying; Li, Shuang; Li, Fuxin; Song, Le; Rehg, James M.

2016-01-01

The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning algorithm for CT-HMM restricts its use to very small models or requires unrealistic constraints on the state transitions. In this paper, we present the first complete characterization of efficient EM-based learning methods for CT-HMM models. We demonstrate that the learning problem consists of two challenges: the estimation of posterior state probabilities and the computation of end-state conditioned statistics. We solve the first challenge by reformulating the estimation problem in terms of an equivalent discrete time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model. The second challenge is addressed by adapting three approaches from the continuous time Markov chain literature to the CT-HMM domain. We demonstrate the use of CT-HMMs with more than 100 states to visualize and predict disease progression using a glaucoma dataset and an Alzheimer’s disease dataset. PMID:27019571

Method of locating underground mines fires

DOEpatents

Laage, Linneas; Pomroy, William

1992-01-01

An improved method of locating an underground mine fire by comparing the pattern of measured combustion product arrival times at detector locations with a real time computer-generated array of simulated patterns. A number of electronic fire detection devices are linked thru telemetry to a control station on the surface. The mine's ventilation is modeled on a digital computer using network analysis software. The time reguired to locate a fire consists of the time required to model the mines' ventilation, generate the arrival time array, scan the array, and to match measured arrival time patterns to the simulated patterns.

Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions through 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heilweil, Victor M.; Ortiz, Gema; Susong, David D.

2009-01-01

Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as an aquifer storage and recovery project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District (WCWCD). Since its inception in 2002 through 2007, surface-water diversions of about 126,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have resulted in a generally rising reservoir stage and surface area. Large volumes of runoff during spring 2005-06 allowed the WCWCD to fill the reservoir to a total storage capacity of more than 50,000 acre-feet, with a corresponding surface area of about 1,300 acres and reservoir stage of about 3,060 feet during 2006. During 2007, reservoir stage generally decreased to about 3,040 feet with a surface-water storage volume of about 30,000 acre-feet. Water temperature in the reservoir shows large seasonal variation and has ranged from about 3 to 30 deg C from 2003 through 2007. Except for anomalously high recharge rates during the first year when the vadose zone beneath the reservoir was becoming saturated, estimated ground-water recharge rates have ranged from 0.01 to 0.09 feet per day. Estimated recharge volumes have ranged from about 200 to 3,500 acre-feet per month from March 2002 through December 2007. Total ground-water recharge during the same period is estimated to have been about 69,000 acre-feet. Estimated evaporation rates have varied from 0.04 to 0.97 feet per month, resulting in evaporation losses of 20 to 1,200 acre-feet per month. Total evaporation from March 2002 through December 2007 is estimated to have been about 25,000 acre-feet. Results of water-quality sampling at monitoring wells indicate that by 2007, managed aquifer recharge had arrived at sites 37 and 36, located 60 and 160 feet from the reservoir, respectively. However, different peak arrival dates for specific conductance, chloride, chloride/bromide ratios, dissolved oxygen, and total dissolved-gas pressures at each monitoring well indicate the complicated nature of interpreting the arrival of managed aquifer recharge water and estimating ground-water travel times. Additional tracers of managed aquifer recharge currently are being considered for further investigation.

Does winter region affect spring arrival time and body mass of king eiders in northern Alaska?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

2009-01-01

Events during the non-breeding season may affect the body condition of migratory birds and influence performance during the following breeding season. Migratory birds nesting in the Arctic often rely on endogenous nutrients for reproductive efforts, and are thus potentially subject to such carry-over effects. We tested whether king eider (Somateria spectabilis) arrival time and body mass upon arrival at breeding grounds in northern Alaska were affected by their choice of a winter region in the Bering Sea. We captured birds shortly after arrival on breeding grounds in early June 2002–2006 at two sites in northern Alaska and determined the region in which individuals wintered using satellite telemetry or stable isotope ratios of head feathers. We used generalized linear models to assess whether winter region explained variation in arrival body mass among individuals by accounting for sex, site, annual variation, and the date a bird was captured. We found no support for our hypothesis that either arrival time or arrival body mass of king eiders differed among winter regions. We conclude that wintering in different regions in the Bering Sea is unlikely to have reproductive consequences for king eiders in our study areas.

Asymptotic Analysis Of The Total Least Squares ESPRIT Algorithm'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ottersten, B. E.; Viberg, M.; Kailath, T.

1989-11-01

This paper considers the problem of estimating the parameters of multiple narrowband signals arriving at an array of sensors. Modern approaches to this problem often involve costly procedures for calculating the estimates. The ESPRIT (Estimation of Signal Parameters via Rotational Invariance Techniques) algorithm was recently proposed as a means for obtaining accurate estimates without requiring a costly search of the parameter space. This method utilizes an array invariance to arrive at a computationally efficient multidimensional estimation procedure. Herein, the asymptotic distribution of the estimation error is derived for the Total Least Squares (TLS) version of ESPRIT. The Cramer-Rao Bound (CRB) for the ESPRIT problem formulation is also derived and found to coincide with the variance of the asymptotic distribution through numerical examples. The method is also compared to least squares ESPRIT and MUSIC as well as to the CRB for a calibrated array. Simulations indicate that the theoretic expressions can be used to accurately predict the performance of the algorithm.

Contributions of aircraft arrivals and departures to ultrafine particle counts near Los Angeles International Airport.

PubMed

Hsu, Hsiao-Hsien; Adamkiewicz, Gary; Houseman, E Andres; Zarubiak, Darcy; Spengler, John D; Levy, Jonathan I

2013-02-01

While commercial aircraft are known sources of ultrafine particulate matter (UFP), the relationship between airport activity and local real-time UFP concentrations has not been quantified. Understanding these associations will facilitate interpretation of the exposure and health risk implications of UFP related to aviation emissions. We used time-resolved UFP data along with flight activity and meteorological information to determine the contributions of aircraft departures and arrivals to UFP concentrations. Aircraft flight activity and near-field continuous UFP concentrations (≧ 6 nm) were measured at five monitoring sites over a 42-day field campaign at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). We developed regression models of UFP concentrations as a function of time-lagged landing and take-off operations (LTO) activity, in the form of arrivals or departures weighted by engine-specific estimates of fuel consumption. Our regression models demonstrate a strong association between departures and elevated total UFP concentrations at the end of the departure runway, with diminishing magnitude and time-lagged impacts with distance from the source. LTO activity contributed a median (95th, 99th percentile) UFP concentration of approximately 150,000 particles/cm(3) (2,000,000, 7,100,000) at a monitor at the end of the departure runway, versus 19,000 particles/cm(3) (80,000, 140,000), and 17,000 particles/cm(3) (50,000, 72,000) for monitors 250 m and 500 m further downwind, respectively. We demonstrated significant contributions from aircraft departure activities to UFP concentrations in close proximity to departure runways, with evidence of rapid plume evolution in the near field. Our methods can inform source attribution and interpretation of dispersion modeling outputs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPIDR) Experiment and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxley, Brian T.; Swieringa, Kurt A.; Capron, William R.

2012-01-01

An area in aviation operations that may offer an increase in efficiency is the use of continuous descent arrivals (CDA), especially during dependent parallel runway operations. However, variations in aircraft descent angle and speed can cause inaccuracies in estimated time of arrival calculations, requiring an increase in the size of the buffer between aircraft. This in turn reduces airport throughput and limits the use of CDAs during high-density operations, particularly to dependent parallel runways. The Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR) concept uses a trajectory-based spacing tool onboard the aircraft to achieve by the runway an air traffic control assigned spacing interval behind the previous aircraft. This paper describes the first ever experiment and results of this concept at NASA Langley. Pilots flew CDAs to the Dallas Fort-Worth airport using airspeed calculations from the spacing tool to achieve either a Required Time of Arrival (RTA) or Interval Management (IM) spacing interval at the runway threshold. Results indicate flight crews were able to land aircraft on the runway with a mean of 2 seconds and less than 4 seconds standard deviation of the air traffic control assigned time, even in the presence of forecast wind error and large time delay. Statistically significant differences in delivery precision and number of speed changes as a function of stream position were observed, however, there was no trend to the difference and the error did not increase during the operation. Two areas the flight crew indicated as not acceptable included the additional number of speed changes required during the wind shear event, and issuing an IM clearance via data link while at low altitude. A number of refinements and future spacing algorithm capabilities were also identified.

Validation of Real-time Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Heliospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Zheng, Y.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.

2013-12-01

Modeling coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is of great interest to the space weather research and forecasting communities. We present recent validation work of real-time CME arrival time predictions at different satellites using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone three-dimensional MHD heliospheric model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and performed by the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. The quality of model operation is evaluated by comparing its output to a measurable parameter of interest such as the CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm strength. The Kp index is calculated from the relation given in Newell et al. (2007), using solar wind parameters predicted by the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model at Earth. The CME arrival time error is defined as the difference between the predicted arrival time and the observed in-situ CME shock arrival time at the ACE, STEREO A, or STEREO B spacecraft. This study includes all real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations performed between June 2011-2013 (over 400 runs) at the CCMC/SWRC. We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we show the average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of this error on CME input parameters such as speed, width, and direction. We also present the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (using the Kp index) error for Earth-directed CMEs.

If Time Is Brain Where Is the Improvement in Prehospital Time after Stroke?

PubMed Central

Pulvers, Jeremy N.; Watson, John D. G.

2017-01-01

Despite the availability of thrombolytic and endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke, many patients are ineligible due to delayed hospital arrival. The identification of factors related to either early or delayed hospital arrival may reveal potential targets of intervention to reduce prehospital delay and improve access to time-critical thrombolysis and clot retrieval therapy. Here, we have reviewed studies reporting on factors associated with either early or delayed hospital arrival after stroke, together with an analysis of stroke onset to hospital arrival times. Much effort in the stroke treatment community has been devoted to reducing door-to-needle times with encouraging improvements. However, this review has revealed that the median onset-to-door times and the percentage of stroke patients arriving before the logistically critical 3 h have shown little improvement in the past two decades. Major factors affecting prehospital time were related to emergency medical pathways, stroke symptomatology, patient and bystander behavior, patient health characteristics, and stroke treatment awareness. Interventions addressing these factors may prove effective in reducing prehospital delay, allowing prompt diagnosis, which in turn may increase the rates and/or efficacy of acute treatments such as thrombolysis and clot retrieval therapy and thereby improve stroke outcomes. PMID:29209269

Validation of the CME Geomagnetic forecast alerts under COMESEP alert system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbovic, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Khodia, Yamini; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

2017-04-01

An automated space weather alert system has been developed under the EU FP7 project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: http://comesep.aeronomy.be) to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. COMESEP alert system uses automated detection tool CACTus to detect potentially threatening CMEs, drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival and CME geo-effectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. Geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geo-effectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic-storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with COMESEP alert system based on a study of geo-effective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is done by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of DBM and CGFT (self standing tools available at Hvar Observatory website: http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results implicate that the success rate of the forecast is higher with human intervention and using more advanced tools. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252). We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 „Solar and Stellar Variability".

ARRIVAL TIME CALCULATION FOR INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH CIRCULAR FRONTS AND APPLICATION TO STEREO OBSERVATIONS OF THE 2009 FEBRUARY 13 ERUPTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moestl, C.; Rollett, T.; Temmer, M.

2011-11-01

One of the goals of the NASA Solar TErestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time, and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape [fixed-{Phi} (FP): a point and harmonic mean (HM): a circle]. These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are basedmore » on the assumption of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km s{sup -1}) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hr than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hr for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case, the ICME has to be tracked to >30{sup 0} elongation to obtain arrival time errors < {+-} 5 hr. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry.« less

Evaluation of bus transit reliability in the District of Columbia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Several performance metrics can be used to assess the reliability of a transit system. These include on-time arrivals, travel-time : adherence, run-time adherence, and customer satisfaction, among others. On-time arrival at bus stops is one of the pe...

Collaborative Arrival Planning: Data Sharing and User Preference Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelenka, Richard E.; Edwards, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Air traffic growth and air carrier economic pressures have motivated efforts to increase the flexibility of the air traffic management process and change the relationship between the air traffic control service provider and the system user. One of the most visible of these efforts is the U.S. government/industry "free flight" initiative, in which the service provider concentrates on safety and cross-airline fairness, and the user on their business objectives and operating preferences, including selecting their own path and speed in real-time. In the terminal arrival phase of flight, severe restrictions and rigid control are currently placed on system users, typically without regard for individual user operational preferences. Airborne delays applied to arriving aircraft into capacity constrained airports are imposed on a first-come, first-serve basis, and thus do not allow the system user to plan for or prioritize late arrivals, or to economically optimize their arrival sequence. A central tenant of the free-flight operating paradigm is collaboration between service providers and users in reaching air traffic management decisions. Such collaboration would be particularly beneficial to an airline's "hub" operation, where off-schedule arrival aircraft are a consistent problem, as they cause serious air-port ramp difficulties, rippling airline scheduling effects, and result in large economic inefficiencies. Greater collaboration can also lead to increased airport capacity and decrease the severity of over-capacity rush periods. In the NASA Collaborative Arrival Planning (CAP) project, both independent exchange of real-time data between the service provider and system user and collaborative decision support tools are addressed. Data exchange of real-time arrival scheduling, airspace management, and air carrier fleet data between the FAA service provider and an air carrier is being conducted and evaluated. Collaborative arrival decision support tools to allow intra-airline arrival preferences are being developed and simulated. The CAP project is part of and leveraged from the NASA/FAA Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS), a fielded set of decision support tools that provide computer generated advisories for both enroute and terminal area controllers to manage and control arrival traffic more efficiently. In this paper, the NASA Collaborative Arrival Planning project is outlined and recent results detailed, including the real-time use of CTAS arrival scheduling data by a major air carrier and simulations of tactical and strategic user preference decision support tools.

Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor Operational Field Test Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farley, Todd; Landry, Steven J.; Hoang, Ty; Nickelson, Monicarol; Levin, Kerry M.; Rowe, Dennis W.

2005-01-01

The Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) is a research prototype system which seeks to bring time-based metering into the mainstream of air traffic control (ATC) operations. Time-based metering is an efficient alternative to traditional air traffic management techniques such as distance-based spacing (miles-in-trail spacing) and managed arrival reservoirs (airborne holding). While time-based metering has demonstrated significant benefit in terms of arrival throughput and arrival delay, its use to date has been limited to arrival operations at just nine airports nationally. Wide-scale adoption of time-based metering has been hampered, in part, by the limited scalability of metering automation. In order to realize the full spectrum of efficiency benefits possible with time-based metering, a much more modular, scalable time-based metering capability is required. With its distributed metering architecture, multi-center TMA offers such a capability.

Queues with Dropping Functions and General Arrival Processes

PubMed Central

Chydzinski, Andrzej; Mrozowski, Pawel

2016-01-01

In a queueing system with the dropping function the arriving customer can be denied service (dropped) with the probability that is a function of the queue length at the time of arrival of this customer. The potential applicability of such mechanism is very wide due to the fact that by choosing the shape of this function one can easily manipulate several performance characteristics of the queueing system. In this paper we carry out analysis of the queueing system with the dropping function and a very general model of arrival process—the model which includes batch arrivals and the interarrival time autocorrelation, and allows for fitting the actual shape of the interarrival time distribution and its moments. For such a system we obtain formulas for the distribution of the queue length and the overall customer loss ratio. The analytical results are accompanied with numerical examples computed for several dropping functions. PMID:26943171

Multi-decadal trends in spring arrival of avian migrants to the central Arctic coast of Alaska: Effects of environmental and ecological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David; Helmericks, J.; Hupp, Jerry W.; McManus, L.; Budde, Michael; Douglas, David C.; Tape, K.D.

2016-01-01

Warming in the Arctic has caused the transition from winter to summer to occur weeks earlier over the last half century, yet little is known about whether avian migrants have altered their timing of arrival on breeding areas to match this earlier seasonal transition. Over a 50-yr period, we examined trends in the timing of the first arrival for 16 avian migrant species at the terminus of their northward migration along the central Arctic coast of Alaska and compared these trends to factors potentially influencing migration phenology. Date of first arrival occurred an average of 0.12 d yr−1 or 6 d (range = 3–10 d) earlier across all species and did not differ significantly among species between 1964 and 2013. Local climatic variables, particularly temperature, had a greater effect on a species first arrival date than did large-scale climatic predictors. First arrival date was 1.03 d earlier for every 1°C annual change in temperature, but there was nearly a 2-fold difference in the range of responses across species (0.69–1.33 d °C−1), implying that some species did better than others at timing their arrival with changing temperature. There was weak support for an influence of foraging strategy, migration distance, and flight path on timing of first arrival. Our findings, like others from temperate latitudes, indicate that avian migrants are responsive to changing environmental conditions, though some species appear to be more adaptive than others.

Time to antibiotics for septic shock: evaluating a proposed performance measure.

PubMed

Venkatesh, Arjun K; Avula, Umakanth; Bartimus, Holly; Reif, Justin; Schmidt, Michael J; Powell, Emilie S

2013-04-01

International guidelines recommend antibiotics within 1 hour of septic shock recognition; however, a recently proposed performance measure is focused on measuring antibiotic administration within 3 hours of emergency department (ED) arrival. Our objective was to describe the time course of septic shock and subsequent implications for performance measurement. Cross-sectional study of consecutive ED patients ultimately diagnosed with septic shock. All patients were evaluated at an urban, academic ED in 2006 to 2008. Primary outcomes included time to definition of septic shock and performance on 2 measures: antibiotics within 3 hours of ED arrival vs antibiotics within 1 hour of septic shock definition. Of 267 patients with septic shock, the median time to definition was 88 minutes (interquartile range, 37-156), and 217 patients (81.9%) met the definition within 3 hours of arrival. Of 221 (83.4%) of patients who received antibiotics within 3 hours of arrival, 38 (17.2%) did not receive antibiotics within 1 hour of definition. Of 207 patients who received antibiotics within 1 hour of definition, 11.6% (n = 24) did not receive antibiotics within 3 hours of arrival. The arrival measure did not accurately classify performance in 23.4% of patients. Nearly 1 of 5 patients cannot be captured for performance measurement within 3 hours of ED arrival due to the variable progression of septic shock. Use of this measure would misclassify performance in 23% of patients. Measuring antibiotic administration based on the clinical course of septic shock rather than from ED arrival would be more appropriate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applications of Bayesian spectrum representation in acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botts, Jonathan M.

This dissertation utilizes a Bayesian inference framework to enhance the solution of inverse problems where the forward model maps to acoustic spectra. A Bayesian solution to filter design inverts a acoustic spectra to pole-zero locations of a discrete-time filter model. Spatial sound field analysis with a spherical microphone array is a data analysis problem that requires inversion of spatio-temporal spectra to directions of arrival. As with many inverse problems, a probabilistic analysis results in richer solutions than can be achieved with ad-hoc methods. In the filter design problem, the Bayesian inversion results in globally optimal coefficient estimates as well as an estimate the most concise filter capable of representing the given spectrum, within a single framework. This approach is demonstrated on synthetic spectra, head-related transfer function spectra, and measured acoustic reflection spectra. The Bayesian model-based analysis of spatial room impulse responses is presented as an analogous problem with equally rich solution. The model selection mechanism provides an estimate of the number of arrivals, which is necessary to properly infer the directions of simultaneous arrivals. Although, spectrum inversion problems are fairly ubiquitous, the scope of this dissertation has been limited to these two and derivative problems. The Bayesian approach to filter design is demonstrated on an artificial spectrum to illustrate the model comparison mechanism and then on measured head-related transfer functions to show the potential range of application. Coupled with sampling methods, the Bayesian approach is shown to outperform least-squares filter design methods commonly used in commercial software, confirming the need for a global search of the parameter space. The resulting designs are shown to be comparable to those that result from global optimization methods, but the Bayesian approach has the added advantage of a filter length estimate within the same unified framework. The application to reflection data is useful for representing frequency-dependent impedance boundaries in finite difference acoustic simulations. Furthermore, since the filter transfer function is a parametric model, it can be modified to incorporate arbitrary frequency weighting and account for the band-limited nature of measured reflection spectra. Finally, the model is modified to compensate for dispersive error in the finite difference simulation, from the filter design process. Stemming from the filter boundary problem, the implementation of pressure sources in finite difference simulation is addressed in order to assure that schemes properly converge. A class of parameterized source functions is proposed and shown to offer straightforward control of residual error in the simulation. Guided by the notion that the solution to be approximated affects the approximation error, sources are designed which reduce residual dispersive error to the size of round-off errors. The early part of a room impulse response can be characterized by a series of isolated plane waves. Measured with an array of microphones, plane waves map to a directional response of the array or spatial intensity map. Probabilistic inversion of this response results in estimates of the number and directions of image source arrivals. The model-based inversion is shown to avoid ambiguities associated with peak-finding or inspection of the spatial intensity map. For this problem, determining the number of arrivals in a given frame is critical for properly inferring the state of the sound field. This analysis is effectively compression of the spatial room response, which is useful for analysis or encoding of the spatial sound field. Parametric, model-based formulations of these problems enhance the solution in all cases, and a Bayesian interpretation provides a principled approach to model comparison and parameter estimation. v

Scheduling and Separating Departures Crossing Arrival Flows in Shared Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chevalley, Eric; Parke, Bonny K.; Lee, Paul; Omar, Faisal; Lee, Hwasoo; Beinert, Nancy; Kraut, Joshua M.; Palmer, Everett

2013-01-01

Flight efficiency and reduction of flight delays are among the primary goals of NextGen. In this paper, we propose a concept of shared airspace where departures fly across arrival flows, provided gaps are available in these flows. We have explored solutions to separate departures temporally from arrival traffic and pre-arranged procedures to support controllers' decisions. We conducted a Human-in-the-Loop simulation and assessed the efficiency and safety of 96 departures from the San Jose airport (SJC) climbing across the arrival airspace of the Oakland and San Francisco arrival flows. In our simulation, the SJC tower had a tool to schedule departures to fly across predicted gaps in the arrival flow. When departures were mistimed and separation could not be ensured, a safe but less efficient route was provided to the departures to fly under the arrival flows. A coordination using a point-out procedure allowed the arrival controller to control the SJC departures right after takeoff. We manipulated the accuracy of departure time (accurate vs. inaccurate) as well as which sector took control of the departures after takeoff (departure vs. arrival sector) in a 2x2 full factorial plan. Results show that coordination time decreased and climb efficiency increased when the arrival sector controlled the aircraft right after takeoff. Also, climb efficiency increased when the departure times were more accurate. Coordination was shown to be a critical component of tactical operations in shared airspace. Although workload, coordination, and safety were judged by controllers as acceptable in the simulation, it appears that in the field, controllers would need improved tools and coordination procedures to support this procedure.

The effects of resonances on time delay estimation for water leak detection in plastic pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Fabrício C. L.; Brennan, Michael J.; Joseph, Phillip F.; Gao, Yan; Paschoalini, Amarildo T.

2018-04-01

In the use of acoustic correlation methods for water leak detection, sensors are placed at pipe access points either side of a suspected leak, and the peak in the cross-correlation function of the measured signals gives the time difference (delay) between the arrival times of the leak noise at the sensors. Combining this information with the speed at which the leak noise propagates along the pipe, gives an estimate for the location of the leak with respect to one of the measurement positions. It is possible for the structural dynamics of the pipe system to corrupt the time delay estimate, which results in the leak being incorrectly located. In this paper, data from test-rigs in the United Kingdom and Canada are used to demonstrate this phenomenon, and analytical models of resonators are coupled with a pipe model to replicate the experimental results. The model is then used to investigate which of the two commonly used correlation algorithms, the Basic Cross-Correlation (BCC) function or the Phase Transform (PHAT), is more robust to the undesirable structural dynamics of the pipe system. It is found that time delay estimation is highly sensitive to the frequency bandwidth over which the analysis is conducted. Moreover, it is found that the PHAT is particularly sensitive to the presence of resonances and can give an incorrect time delay estimate, whereas the BCC function is found to be much more robust, giving a consistently accurate time delay estimate for a range of dynamic conditions.

Use of chlorine-36 to determine regional-scale aquifer dispersivity, eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, Idaho/USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cecil, L.D.; Welhan, J.A.; Green, J.R.; Grape, S.K.; Sudicky, E.R.

2000-01-01

Chlorine-36 (36Cl) derived from processed nuclear waste that was disposed at the US Department of Energy's Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) through a deep injection well in 1958, was detected 24-28 yr later in groundwater monitoring wells approximately 26 km downgradient from the source. Groundwater samples covering the period 1966-1995 were selected from the US Geological Survey's archived-sample library at the INEEL and analyzed for 36Cl by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The smaller 36Cl peak concentrations in water from the far-field monitoring wells relative to the input suggest that aquifer dispersivity may be large. However, the sharpness of the 1958 disposal peak of 36Cl is matched by the measured 36Cl concentrations in water from these wells. This implies that a small aquifer dispersivity may be attributed to preferential groundwater flowpaths. Assuming that tracer arrival times at monitoring wells are controlled by preferential flow, a 1-D system-response model was used to estimate dispersivity by comparing the shape of predicted 36Cl-concentration curves to the shape of 36Cl-concentration curves measured in water from these observation wells. The comparisons suggest that a 1-D dispersivity of 5 m provides the best fit to the tracer data. Previous work using a 2-D equivalent porous-media model concluded that longitudinal dispersivity (equivalent to 1-D dispersivity in our model) was 90 m (Ackerman, 1991). A 90 m dispersivity value eliminates the 1958 disposal peak in our model output curves. The implications of the arrival of 36Cl at downgradient monitoring wells are important for three reasons: (1) the arrival times and associated 36Cl concentrations provide quantitative constraints on residence times, velocities, and dispersivities in the aquifer; (2) they help to refine our working hypotheses of groundwater flow in this aquifer and (3) they may suggest a means of estimating the distribution of preferential flowpaths in the aquifer. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL): Potential Impact on Air Traffic Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Couluris, G. J.; Signor, D.; Phillips, J.

2010-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating technological and operational concepts for introducing Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL) aircraft into a future US National Airspace System (NAS) civil aviation environment. CESTOL is an aircraft design concept for future use to increase capacity and reduce emissions. CESTOL provides very flexible takeoff, climb, descent and landing performance capabilities and a high-speed cruise capability. In support of NASA, this study is a preliminary examination of the potential operational impact of CESTOL on airport and airspace capacity and delay. The study examines operational impacts at a subject site, Newark Liberty Intemational Airport (KEWR), New Jersey. The study extends these KEWR results to estimate potential impacts on NAS-wide network traffic operations due to the introduction of CESTOL at selected major airports. These are the 34 domestic airports identified in the Federal Aviation Administration's Operational Evolution Plan (OEP). The analysis process uses two fast-time simulation tools to separately model local and NAS-wide air traffic operations using predicted flight schedules for a 24-hour study period in 2016. These tools are the Sen sis AvTerminal model and NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). We use both to simulate conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed-with-conventional-aircraft operations. Both tools apply 4-dimension trajectory modeling to simulate individual flight movement. The study applies AvTerminal to model traffic operations and procedures for en route and terminal arrival and departures to and from KEWR. These AvTerminal applications model existing arrival and departure routes and profiles and runway use configurations, with the assumption jet-powered, large-sized civil CESTOL aircraft use a short runway and standard turboprop arrival and departure procedures. With these rules, the conventional jet and CESTOL aircraft are procedurally separated from each other geographically and in altitude during tenninal airspace approach and departure operations, and each use a different arrival runway. AvTeminal implements its unique Focal-point Scheduling Process to sequence, space and delay aircraft to resolve spacing and overtake conflicts among flights in the airspace and airport system serving KEWR. This Process effectively models integrated arrival and departure operations. AvTerminal assesses acceptance rates and delay magnitude and causality at selected locations, including en route outer boundary fixes, tenninal airspace arrival and departure boundary fixes, terminal airspace arrival merge and departure diverge fixes, and runway landing and takeoff runways. The analysis compares the resulting capacity impacts, flight delays and delay sources between CESTOL and conventional KEWR operations. AvTerminal quantitative results showed that CESTOL has significant capability to increase airport arrival acceptance rates (35-40% at KEWR) by taking advantage of otherwise underused airspace and runways where available. The study extrapolates the AvTerminal-derived KEWR peak arrival and departure acceptance rates to estimate capacity parameter values for each of the OEP airports in the ACES modeling of traffic through the entire NAS network. The extrapolations of acceptance rates allow full, partial or no achievement of CESTOL capacity gains at an OEP airport as determined by assessments of the degree to which local procedures allow leveraging of CESTOL capabilities. These assessments consider each OEP airport's runway geometries, runway system configurations, airport and airspace operations, and potential CESTOL traffic loadings. The ACES modeling, simulates airport and airspace spacing constraints imposed by airport runway system, terminal and en route air traffic control and traffic flow management operations using airport acceptance rates representing conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed operations. CEOL aircraft are assumed to have Mach 0.8, and alternatively Mach 0.7, cruise speeds to examine compatibility with conventional aircraft operations in common airspace. The ACES results provides estimates of CESTOL delay impact NAS-wide and at OEP airports due to changes in OEP airport acceptance rates and changes in en route airspace potential conflict rates. Preliminary results show meaningful nationwide delay reductions (20%) due to CESTOL operations at 34 major domestic airports.

Substructures in the temporal distribution of atmospheric Cerenkov light in EAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosia, G.; Navarra, G.; Saavedra, O.; Boehm, E.

1980-06-01

Particle density and arrival time distribution of atmospheric Cerenkov light (ACL) was measured simultaneously in individual air showers at Pic du Midi. Substructures were observed in the arrival time distribution of the ACL. The arrival time is related to a position in the shower plane which indicates the existence of density variations, i.e., substructures in the lateral distribution of particles. The frequency of substructures is a few percent, and core distances of up to tens of meters were observed.

Real-time vehicle noise cancellation techniques for gunshot acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Antonio L. L.; Holm, Sverre; Gudvangen, Sigmund; Otterlei, Ragnvald

2012-06-01

Acoustical sniper positioning systems rely on the detection and direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation of the shockwave and the muzzle blast in order to provide an estimate of a potential snipers location. Field tests have shown that detecting and estimating the DOA of the muzzle blast is a rather difficult task in the presence of background noise sources, e.g., vehicle noise, especially in long range detection and absorbing terrains. In our previous work presented in the 2011 edition of this conference we highlight the importance of improving the SNR of the gunshot signals prior to the detection and recognition stages, aiming at lowering the false alarm and miss-detection rates and, thereby, increasing the reliability of the system. This paper reports on real-time noise cancellation techniques, like Spectral Subtraction and Adaptive Filtering, applied to gunshot signals. Our model assumes the background noise as being short-time stationary and uncorrelated to the impulsive gunshot signals. In practice, relatively long periods without signal occur and can be used to estimate the noise spectrum and its first and second order statistics as required in the spectral subtraction and adaptive filtering techniques, respectively. The results presented in this work are supported with extensive simulations based on real data.

Investigation of Backprojection Uncertainties With M6 Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Wenyuan; Shearer, Peter M.

2017-10-01

We investigate possible biasing effects of inaccurate timing corrections on teleseismic P wave backprojection imaging of large earthquake ruptures. These errors occur because empirically estimated time shifts based on aligning P wave first arrivals are exact only at the hypocenter and provide approximate corrections for other parts of the rupture. Using the Japan subduction zone as a test region, we analyze 46 M6-M7 earthquakes over a 10 year period, including many aftershocks of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake, performing waveform cross correlation of their initial P wave arrivals to obtain hypocenter timing corrections to global seismic stations. We then compare backprojection images for each earthquake using its own timing corrections with those obtained using the time corrections from other earthquakes. This provides a measure of how well subevents can be resolved with backprojection of a large rupture as a function of distance from the hypocenter. Our results show that backprojection is generally very robust and that the median subevent location error is about 25 km across the entire study region (˜700 km). The backprojection coherence loss and location errors do not noticeably converge to zero even when the event pairs are very close (<20 km). This indicates that most of the timing differences are due to 3-D structure close to each of the hypocenter regions, which limits the effectiveness of attempts to refine backprojection images using aftershock calibration, at least in this region.

Input reconstruction for networked control systems subject to deception attacks and data losses on control signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, J. Y.; Chabir, K.; Sauter, D.

2016-03-01

State estimation of stochastic discrete-time linear systems subject to unknown inputs or constant biases has been widely studied but no work has been dedicated to the case where a disturbance switches between unknown input and constant bias. We show that such disturbance can affect a networked control system subject to deception attacks and data losses on the control signals transmitted by the controller to the plant. This paper proposes to estimate the switching disturbance from an augmented state version of the intermittent unknown input Kalman filter recently developed by the authors. Sufficient stochastic stability conditions are established when the arrival binary sequence of data losses follows a Bernoulli random process.

Reducing air pollutant emissions at airports by controlling aircraft ground operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gelinas, C.G.; Fan, H.S.L.

1979-02-01

Average-day carbon monoxide, total hydrocarbon, and NO/sub x/ aircraft emissions and fuel use estimates (apportioned to takeoff, taxi, idle, and landing) for departure and arrival at Los Angeles and San Francisco International Airports were compared with emissions level and fuel use estimates for four emission reduction strategies (tow aircraft between runways and gates, shutdown one engine during taxiing, control departure time, and assign runways to minimize taxiing distance). The best strategy, the shutdown of one engine while taxiing, produces substantial emission reductions, cost benefits owing to fuel savings, and no apparent safety problems; aircraft towing reduced emissions significantly, but introducedmore » a number of safety problems.« less

Modeling and Circumventing the Effect of Sediments and Water Column on Receiver Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Audet, P.

2017-12-01

Teleseismic P-wave receiver functions are routinely used to resolve crust and mantle structure in various geologic settings. Receiver functions are approximations to the Earth's Green's functions and are composed of various scattered phase arrivals, depending on the complexity of the underlying Earth structure. For simple structure, the dominant arrivals (converted and back-scattered P-to-S phases) are well separated in time and can be reliably used in estimating crustal velocity structure. In the presence of sedimentary layers, strong reverberations typically produce high-amplitude oscillations that contaminate the early part of the wave train and receiver functions can be difficult to interpret in terms of underlying structure. The effect of a water column also limits the interpretability of under-water receiver functions due to the additional acoustic wave propagating within the water column that can contaminate structural arrivals. We perform numerical modeling of teleseismic Green's functions and receiver functions using a reflectivity technique for a range of Earth models that include thin sedimentary layers and overlying water column. These modeling results indicate that, as expected, receiver functions are difficult to interpret in the presence of sediments, but the contaminating effect of the water column is dependent on the thickness of the water layer. To circumvent these effects and recover source-side structure, we propose using an approach based on transfer function modeling that bypasses receiver functions altogether and estimates crustal properties directly from the waveforms (Frederiksen and Delayney, 2015). Using this approach, reasonable assumptions about the properties of the sedimentary layer can be included in forward calculations of the Green's functions that are convolved with radial waveforms to predict vertical waveforms. Exploration of model space using Monte Carlo-style search and least-square waveform misfits can be performed to estimate any model parameter of interest, including those of the sedimentary or water layer. We show how this method can be applied to OBS data using broadband stations from the Cascadia Initiative to recover oceanic plate structure.

Disorganized junior doctors fail the MRCP (UK).

PubMed

Stanley, Adrian G; Khan, Khalid M; Hussain, Walayat; Tweed, Michael

2006-02-01

Career progression during undergraduate and early postgraduate years is currently determined by successfully passing examinations. Both academic factors (secondary school examination results, learning style and training opportunities) and non-academic factors (maturity, ethnic origin, gender and motivation) have been identified as predicting examination outcome. Few studies have examined organization skills. Disorganized medical students are more likely to perform poorly in end-of-year examinations but this observation has not been examined in junior doctors. This study asked whether organization skills relate to examination outcome amongst junior doctors taking the clinical Part II examination for the Membership of the Royal College of Physicians (Practical Assessment of Clinical Examination Skills). The study was conducted prospectively at four consecutive clinical courses that provided clinical teaching and practice to prepare trainees for the examination. Arrival time at registration for the course was the chosen surrogate for organization skills. Trainees were advised that they should arrive promptly at 8.00 a.m. for registration and it was explained that the course would start at 8.30 a.m. Recorded arrival times were compared with the pass lists published by the Royal College of Physicians. The mean arrival time was 8.17 a.m. A total of 81 doctors (53.3%) passed the examination with a mean arrival time of 8.14 a.m. However, 71 doctors failed the exam and arrived, on average, six minutes later than doctors who passed (p?=?0.006). Better-prepared junior doctors were more likely to pass the final examination. Arriving on time represents a composite of several skills involved in the planning of appropriate travel arrangements and is therefore a valid marker of organization skills and preparation. This novel study has shown that good time-keeping skills are positively associated with examination outcome.

Triggered Seismicity in Utah from the November 3, 2002, Denali Fault Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankow, K. L.; Nava, S. J.; Pechmann, J. C.; Arabasz, W. J.

2002-12-01

Coincident with the arrival of the surface waves from the November 3, 2002, Mw 7.9 Denali Fault, Alaska earthquake (DFE), the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (UUSS) regional seismic network detected a marked increase in seismicity along the Intermountain Seismic Belt (ISB) in central and north-central Utah. The number of earthquakes per day in Utah located automatically by the UUSS's Earthworm system in the week following the DFE was approximately double the long-term average during the preceding nine months. From these preliminary data, the increased seismicity appears to be characterized by small magnitude events (M = 3.2) and concentrated in five distinct spatial clusters within the ISB between 38.75°and 42.0° N. The first of these earthquakes was an M 2.2 event located ~20 km east of Salt Lake City, Utah, which occurred during the arrival of the Love waves from the DFE. The increase in Utah earthquake activity at the time of the arrival of the surface waves from the DFE suggests that these surface waves triggered earthquakes in Utah at distances of more than 3,000 km from the source. We estimated the peak dynamic shear stress caused by these surface waves from measurements of their peak vector velocities at 43 recording sites: 37 strong-motion stations of the Advanced National Seismic System and six broadband stations. (The records from six other broadband instruments in the region of interest were clipped.) The estimated peak stresses ranged from 1.2 bars to 3.5 bars with a mean of 2.3 bars, and generally occurred during the arrival of Love waves of ~15 sec period. These peak dynamic shear stress estimates are comparable to those obtained from recordings of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake in regions where the Landers earthquake triggered increased seismicity. We plan to present more complete analyses of UUSS seismic network data, further testing our hypothesis that the DFE remotely triggered seismicity in Utah. This hypothesis is important to investigate because well-documented evidence for triggering of seismicity by distant earthquakes comes primarily from areas characterized by recent volcanic or geothermal activity. The regions of apparent triggered seismicity from the DFE in Utah fall into neither of these two categories.

Amplitude and angle of arrival measurements on a 28.56 GHz Earth-space path

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Devasirvatham, D. M. J.; Hodge, D. B.

1981-01-01

The amplitude and angle of arrival measurements on an Earth-space path using the 28.56 GHz COMSTAR D3 satellite beacon are described. These measurements were made by the Ohio State University ElectroScience Laboratory during the period September 1978 to September 1979. Monthly, quarterly, and annual distributions of attenuation, angle of arrival, and variance of both these parameters are reported. During this period, fades exceeding 29 dB for .00% of the time and angle of arrival fluctuations exceeding .12 degrees for .01% of the time were observed.

Hybrid Visible Light and Ultrasound-Based Sensor for Distance Estimation

PubMed Central

Rabadan, Jose; Guerra, Victor; Rodríguez, Rafael; Rufo, Julio; Luna-Rivera, Martin; Perez-Jimenez, Rafael

2017-01-01

Distance estimation plays an important role in location-based services, which has become very popular in recent years. In this paper, a new short range cricket sensor-based approach is proposed for indoor location applications. This solution uses Time Difference of Arrival (TDoA) between an optical and an ultrasound signal which are transmitted simultaneously, to estimate the distance from the base station to the mobile receiver. The measurement of the TDoA at the mobile receiver endpoint is proportional to the distance. The use of optical and ultrasound signals instead of the conventional radio wave signal makes the proposed approach suitable for environments with high levels of electromagnetic interference or where the propagation of radio frequencies is entirely restricted. Furthermore, unlike classical cricket systems, a double-way measurement procedure is introduced, allowing both the base station and mobile node to perform distance estimation simultaneously. PMID:28208584

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes, migratory distance, and arrival distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macmynowski, Dena P.; Root, Terry L.

2007-05-01

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979 2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.

Development and Application of a Low Frequency Near-Field Interferometric-TOA 3D Lightning Mapping Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, F.; Cummer, S. A.; Weinert, J. L.; McTague, L. E.; Solanki, R.; Barrett, J.

2014-12-01

Lightning processes radiated extremely wideband electromagnetic signals. Lightning images mapped by VHF interferometry and VHF time of arrival lightning mapping arrays enable us to understand the lightning in-cloud detail development during the extent of flash that can not always be captured by cameras because of the shield of cloud. Lightning processes radiate electromagnetically over an extremely wide bandwidth, offering the possibility of multispectral lightning radio imaging. Low frequency signals are often used for lightning detection, but usually only for ground point location or thunderstorm tracking. Some recent results have demonstrated lightning LF 3D mapping of discrete lightning pulses, but imaging of continuous LF emissions have not been shown. In this work, we report a GPS-synchronized LF near field interferometric-TOA 3D lightning mapping array applied to image the development of lightning flashes on second time scale. Cross-correlation, as used in broadband interferometry, is applied in our system to find windowed arrival time differences with sub-microsecond time resolution. However, because the sources are in the near field of the array, time of arrival processing is used to find the source locations with a typical precision of 100 meters. We show that this system images the complete lightning flash structure with thousands of LF sources for extensive flashes. Importantly, this system is able to map both continuous emissions like dart leaders, and bursty or discrete emissions. Lightning stepped leader and dart leader propagation speeds are estimated to 0.56-2.5x105 m/s and 0.8-2.0x106 m/s respectively, which are consistent with previous reports. In many aspects our LF images are remarkably similar to VHF lightning mapping array images, despite the 1000 times difference in frequency, which may suggest some special links between the LF and VHF emission during lightning processes.

A 24 hr global campaign to assess precision timing of the millisecond pulsar J1713+0747

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolch, T.; Lam, M. T.; Cordes, J.

2014-10-10

The radio millisecond pulsar J1713+0747 is regarded as one of the highest-precision clocks in the sky and is regularly timed for the purpose of detecting gravitational waves. The International Pulsar Timing Array Collaboration undertook a 24 hr global observation of PSR J1713+0747 in an effort to better quantify sources of timing noise in this pulsar, particularly on intermediate (1-24 hr) timescales. We observed the pulsar continuously over 24 hr with the Arecibo, Effelsberg, GMRT, Green Bank, LOFAR, Lovell, Nançay, Parkes, and WSRT radio telescopes. The combined pulse times-of-arrival presented here provide an estimate of what sources of timing noise, excludingmore » DM variations, would be present as compared to an idealized √N improvement in timing precision, where N is the number of pulses analyzed. In the case of this particular pulsar, we find that intrinsic pulse phase jitter dominates arrival time precision when the signal-to-noise ratio of single pulses exceeds unity, as measured using the eight telescopes that observed at L band/1.4 GHz. We present first results of specific phenomena probed on the unusually long timescale (for a single continuous observing session) of tens of hours, in particular interstellar scintillation, and discuss the degree to which scintillation and profile evolution affect precision timing. This paper presents the data set as a basis for future, deeper studies.« less

Arrival metering fuel consumption analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Arrival metering is a method of time-based traffic management that is used by the Federal Aviation Administration to plan and manage streams of arrival traffic during periods of : high demand at busy airports. The Traffic Management Advisor is an aut...

The Earthquake Early Warning System In Southern Italy: Performance Tests And Next Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Colombelli, S.; Emolo, A.; Festa, G.; Iannaccone, G.

2011-12-01

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is the software platform for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Southern Italy, that integrates recent algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment, into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation based on the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet). PRESTo processes the live streams of 3C acceleration data for P-wave arrival detection and, while an event is occurring, promptly performs event detection and provides location, magnitude estimations and peak ground shaking predictions at target sites. The earthquake location is obtained by an evolutionary, real-time probabilistic approach based on an equal differential time formulation. At each time step, it uses information from both triggered and not-yet-triggered stations. Magnitude estimation exploits an empirical relationship that correlates it to the filtered Peak Displacement (Pd), measured over the first 2-4 s of P-signal. Peak ground-motion parameters at any distance can be finally estimated by ground motion prediction equations. Alarm messages containing the updated estimates of these parameters can thus reach target sites before the destructive waves, enabling automatic safety procedures. Using the real-time data streaming from the ISNet network, PRESTo has produced a bulletin for about a hundred low-magnitude events occurred during last two years. Meanwhile, the performances of the EEW system were assessed off-line playing-back the records for moderate and large events from Italy, Spain and Japan and synthetic waveforms for large historical events in Italy. These tests have shown that, when a dense seismic network is deployed in the fault area, PRESTo produces reliable estimates of earthquake location and size within 5-6 s from the event origin time (To). Estimates are provided as probability density functions whose uncertainty typically decreases with time, obtaining a stable solution within 10 s from To. The regional approach was recently integrated with a threshold-based early warning method for the definition of alert levels and the estimation of the Potential Damaged Zone (PDZ) in which the highest intensity levels are expected. The dominant period Tau_c and the peak displacement (Pd) are simultaneously measured in a 3s window after the first P-arrival time. Pd and Tau_c are then compared with threshold values, previously established through an empirical regression analysis, that define a decisional table with four alert levels. According to the real-time measured values of Pd and tau_c, each station provides a local alert level that can be used to warn distant sites and to define the extent of the PDZ. The integrated system was validated off-line for the M6.3, 2009 Central Italy earthquake and ten large Japanese events, due to the low-magnitude events currently occurring in Irpinia. The results confirmed the feasibility and the robustness of such an approach, providing reliable predictions of the earthquake damaging effects, that is a relevant information for the efficient planning of the rescue operations in the immediate post-event emergency phase.

First arrival time picking for microseismic data based on DWSW algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yue; Wang, Yue; Lin, Hongbo; Zhong, Tie

2018-03-01

The first arrival time picking is a crucial step in microseismic data processing. When the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low, however, it is difficult to get the first arrival time accurately with traditional methods. In this paper, we propose the double-sliding-window SW (DWSW) method based on the Shapiro-Wilk (SW) test. The DWSW method is used to detect the first arrival time by making full use of the differences between background noise and effective signals in the statistical properties. Specifically speaking, we obtain the moment corresponding to the maximum as the first arrival time of microseismic data when the statistic of our method reaches its maximum. Hence, in our method, there is no need to select the threshold, which makes the algorithm more facile when the SNR of microseismic data is low. To verify the reliability of the proposed method, a series of experiments is performed on both synthetic and field microseismic data. Our method is compared with the traditional short-time and long-time average (STA/LTA) method, the Akaike information criterion, and the kurtosis method. Analysis results indicate that the accuracy rate of the proposed method is superior to that of the other three methods when the SNR is as low as - 10 dB.

The impact of fossil calibrations, codon positions and relaxed clocks on the divergence time estimates of the native Australian rodents (Conilurini).

PubMed

Nilsson, Maria A; Härlid, Anna; Kullberg, Morgan; Janke, Axel

2010-05-01

The native rodents are the most species-rich placental mammal group on the Australian continent. Fossils of native Australian rodents belonging to the group Conilurini are known from Northern Australia at 4.5Ma. These fossil assemblages already display a rich diversity of rodents, but the exact timing of their arrival on the Australian continent is not yet established. The complete mitochondrial genomes of two native Australian rodents, Leggadina lakedownensis (Lakeland Downs mouse) and Pseudomys chapmani (Western Pebble-mound mouse) were sequenced for investigating their evolutionary history. The molecular data were used for studying the phylogenetic position and divergence times of the Australian rodents, using 12 calibration points and various methods. Phylogenetic analyses place the native Australian rodents as the sister-group to the genus Mus. The Mus-Conilurini calibration point (7.3-11.0Ma) is highly critical for estimating rodent divergence times, while the influence of the different algorithms on estimating divergence times is negligible. The influence of the data type was investigated, indicating that amino acid data are more likely to reflect the correct divergence times than nucleotide sequences. The study on the problems related to estimating divergence times in fast-evolving lineages such as rodents, emphasize the choice of data and calibration points as being critical. Furthermore, it is essential to include accurate calibration points for fast-evolving groups, because the divergence times can otherwise be estimated to be significantly older. The divergence times of the Australian rodents are highly congruent and are estimated to 6.5-7.2Ma, a date that is compatible with their fossil record.

Order of arrival affects competition in two reef fishes.

PubMed

Geange, Shane W; Stier, Adrian C

2009-10-01

Many communities experience repeated periods of colonization due to seasonally regenerating habitats or pulsed arrival of young-of-year. When an individual's persistence in a community depends upon the strength of competitive interactions, changes in the timing of arrival relative to the arrival of a competitor can modify competitive strength and, ultimately, establishment in the community. We investigated whether the strength of intracohort competitive interactions between recent settlers of the reef fishes Thalassoma hardwicke and T. quinquevittatum are dependent on the sequence and temporal separation of their arrival into communities. To achieve this, we manipulated the sequence and timing of arrival of each species onto experimental patch reefs by simulating settlement pulses and monitoring survival and aggressive interactions. Both species survived best in the absence of competitors, but when competitors were present, they did best when they arrived at the same time. Survival declined as each species entered the community progressively later than its competitor and as aggression by its competitor increased. Intraspecific effects of resident T. hardwicke were similar to interspecific effects. This study shows that the strength of competition depends not only on the identity of competitors, but also on the sequence and timing of their interactions, suggesting that when examining interaction strengths, it is important to identify temporal variability in the direction and magnitude of their effects. Furthermore, our findings provide empirical evidence for the importance of competitive lotteries in the maintenance of species diversity in demographically open marine systems.

Studying the Effects of Transparent vs. Opaque Shallow Thrust Faults Using Synthetic P and SH Seismograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. E.; Aagaard, B. T.; Heaton, T. H.

2001-12-01

It has been hypothesized (Brune, 1996) that teleseismic inversions may underestimate the moment of shallow thrust fault earthquakes if energy becomes trapped in the hanging wall of the fault, i.e. if the fault boundary becomes opaque. We address this by creating and analyzing synthetic P and SH seismograms for a variety of friction models. There are a total of five models: (1) crack model (slip weakening) with instantaneous healing (2) crack model without healing (3) crack model with zero sliding friction (4) pulse model (slip and rate weakening) (5) prescribed model (Haskell-like rupture with the same final slip and peak slip-rate as model 4). Models 1-4 are all dynamic models where fault friction laws determine the rupture history. This allows feedback between the ongoing rupture and waves from the beginning of the rupture that hit the surface and reflect downwards. Hence, models 1-4 can exhibit opaque fault characteristics. Model 5, a prescribed rupture, allows for no interaction between the rupture and reflected waves, therefore, it is a transparent fault. We first produce source time functions for the different friction models by rupturing shallow thrust faults in 3-D dynamic finite-element simulations. The source time functions are used as point dislocations in a teleseismic body-wave code. We examine the P and SH waves for different azimuths and epicentral distances. The peak P and S first arrival displacement amplitudes for the crack, crack with healing and pulse models are all very similar. These dynamic models with opaque faults produce smaller peak P and S first arrivals than the prescribed, transparent fault. For example, a fault with strike = 90 degrees, azimuth = 45 degrees has P arrivals smaller by about 30% and S arrivals smaller by about 15%. The only dynamic model that doesn't fit this pattern is the crack model with zero sliding friction. It oscillates around its equilibrium position; therefore, it overshoots and yields an excessively large peak first arrival. In general, it appears that the dynamic, opaque faults have smaller peak teleseismic displacements that would lead to lower moment estimates by a modest amount.

ARRIVAL TIME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GRAVITATIONAL WAVES AND ELECTROMAGNETIC SIGNALS DUE TO GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takahashi, Ryuichi

In this study we demonstrate that general relativity predicts arrival time differences between gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) signals caused by the wave effects in gravitational lensing. The GW signals can arrive earlier than the EM signals in some cases if the GW/EM signals have passed through a lens, even if both signals were emitted simultaneously by a source. GW wavelengths are much larger than EM wavelengths; therefore, the propagation of the GWs does not follow the laws of geometrical optics, including the Shapiro time delay, if the lens mass is less than approximately 10{sup 5} M {sub ⊙}(more » f /Hz){sup −1}, where f is the GW frequency. The arrival time difference can reach ∼0.1 s ( f /Hz){sup −1} if the signals have passed by a lens of mass ∼8000 M {sub ⊙}( f /Hz){sup −1} with the impact parameter smaller than the Einstein radius; therefore, it is more prominent for lower GW frequencies. For example, when a distant supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) in a galactic center is lensed by an intervening galaxy, the time lag becomes of the order of 10 days. Future pulsar timing arrays including the Square Kilometre Array and X-ray detectors may detect several time lags by measuring the orbital phase differences between the GW/EM signals in the SMBHBs. Gravitational lensing imprints a characteristic modulation on a chirp waveform; therefore, we can deduce whether a measured arrival time lag arises from intrinsic source properties or gravitational lensing. Determination of arrival time differences would be extremely useful in multimessenger observations and tests of general relativity.« less

Estimating the arrival times of photon-limited laser pulses in the presence of shot and speckle noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abshire, James B.; Mcgarry, Jan F.

1987-01-01

Maximum-likelihood (ML) receivers are frequently used to optimize the timing performance of laser-ranging and laser-altimetry systems in the presence of shot and speckle noise. Monte Carlo method was used to examine ML-receiver performance with return signals in the 10-5000-photoelectron (pe) range. The simulations were performed for shot noise only and for shot and speckle noise. The results agree with previous theory for signal strengths greater than about 100 pe's but show that the theory can significantly underestimate timing errors for weaker received signals. Sharp high-bandwidth features in the detected signals are shown to improve timing performance only if their signal levels are greater than 4-5 pe's.

Acculturation factors and metabolic syndrome among Japanese-Brazilian men in Japan: a cross-sectional descriptive study.

PubMed

Tashiro, Marie; Yasuoka, Junko; Poudel, Krishna C; Noto, Hiroshi; Masuo, Miho; Jimba, Masamine

2014-02-01

This study examines the acculturation effects on metabolic syndrome (MetS), and its related factors, among immigrant Japanese-Brazilian men in Japan. Quantitative and qualitative approaches were utilized. In the quantitative study (n = 149), multiple logistic regression analyses estimated the impact of length of residence and arrival age on MetS. For the qualitative study, five focus group discussions were conducted with participants (n = 26) from the quantitative study sample. The oldest arrival age group was more likely to have MetS (OR, 95% CI 4.41, 1.09-17.78) after adjusting for covariates; whereas, length of residence had no association with MetS. The oldest arrival age group, with shorter residence period, was also associated with increased MetS prevalence. Qualitative results identified participants' Brazilian dietary habits as being potential risk factors for MetS. Japanese-Brazilian immigrant men with older arrival age in Japan were more likely to suffer from MetS, especially shortly after arrival.

Effect of the number of request calls on the time from call to hospital arrival: a cross-sectional study of an ambulance record database in Nara prefecture, Japan.

PubMed

Hanaki, Nao; Yamashita, Kazuto; Kunisawa, Susumu; Imanaka, Yuichi

2016-12-09

In Japan, ambulance staff sometimes must make request calls to find hospitals that can accept patients because of an inadequate information sharing system. This study aimed to quantify effects of the number of request calls on the time interval between an emergency call and hospital arrival. A cross-sectional study of an ambulance records database in Nara prefecture, Japan. A total of 43 663 patients (50% women; 31.2% aged 80 years and over): (1) transported by ambulance from April 2013 to March 2014, (2) aged 15 years and over, and (3) with suspected major illness. The time from call to hospital arrival, defined as the time interval from receipt of an emergency call to ambulance arrival at a hospital. The mean time interval from emergency call to hospital arrival was 44.5 min, and the mean number of requests was 1.8. Multilevel linear regression analysis showed that ∼43.8% of variations in transportation times were explained by patient age, sex, season, day of the week, time, category of suspected illness, person calling for the ambulance, emergency status at request call, area and number of request calls. A higher number of request calls was associated with longer time intervals to hospital arrival (addition of 6.3 min per request call; p<0.001). In an analysis dividing areas into three groups, there were differences in transportation time for diseases needing cardiologists, neurologists, neurosurgeons and orthopaedists. The study revealed 6.3 additional minutes needed in transportation time for every refusal of a request call, and also revealed disease-specific delays among specific areas. An effective system should be collaboratively established by policymakers and physicians to ensure the rapid identification of an available hospital for patient transportation in order to reduce the time from the initial emergency call to hospital arrival. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Effect of the number of request calls on the time from call to hospital arrival: a cross-sectional study of an ambulance record database in Nara prefecture, Japan

PubMed Central

Hanaki, Nao; Yamashita, Kazuto; Kunisawa, Susumu; Imanaka, Yuichi

2016-01-01

Objectives In Japan, ambulance staff sometimes must make request calls to find hospitals that can accept patients because of an inadequate information sharing system. This study aimed to quantify effects of the number of request calls on the time interval between an emergency call and hospital arrival. Design and setting A cross-sectional study of an ambulance records database in Nara prefecture, Japan. Cases A total of 43 663 patients (50% women; 31.2% aged 80 years and over): (1) transported by ambulance from April 2013 to March 2014, (2) aged 15 years and over, and (3) with suspected major illness. Primary outcome measures The time from call to hospital arrival, defined as the time interval from receipt of an emergency call to ambulance arrival at a hospital. Results The mean time interval from emergency call to hospital arrival was 44.5 min, and the mean number of requests was 1.8. Multilevel linear regression analysis showed that ∼43.8% of variations in transportation times were explained by patient age, sex, season, day of the week, time, category of suspected illness, person calling for the ambulance, emergency status at request call, area and number of request calls. A higher number of request calls was associated with longer time intervals to hospital arrival (addition of 6.3 min per request call; p<0.001). In an analysis dividing areas into three groups, there were differences in transportation time for diseases needing cardiologists, neurologists, neurosurgeons and orthopaedists. Conclusions The study revealed 6.3 additional minutes needed in transportation time for every refusal of a request call, and also revealed disease-specific delays among specific areas. An effective system should be collaboratively established by policymakers and physicians to ensure the rapid identification of an available hospital for patient transportation in order to reduce the time from the initial emergency call to hospital arrival. PMID:27940625

Impact of lean six sigma process improvement methodology on cardiac catheterization laboratory efficiency.

PubMed

Agarwal, Shikhar; Gallo, Justin J; Parashar, Akhil; Agarwal, Kanika K; Ellis, Stephen G; Khot, Umesh N; Spooner, Robin; Murat Tuzcu, Emin; Kapadia, Samir R

2016-03-01

Operational inefficiencies are ubiquitous in several healthcare processes. To improve the operational efficiency of our catheterization laboratory (Cath Lab), we implemented a lean six sigma process improvement initiative, starting in June 2010. We aimed to study the impact of lean six sigma implementation on improving the efficiency and the patient throughput in our Cath Lab. All elective and urgent cardiac catheterization procedures including diagnostic coronary angiography, percutaneous coronary interventions, structural interventions and peripheral interventions performed between June 2009 and December 2012 were included in the study. Performance metrics utilized for analysis included turn-time, physician downtime, on-time patient arrival, on-time physician arrival, on-time start and manual sheath-pulls inside the Cath Lab. After implementation of lean six sigma in the Cath Lab, we observed a significant improvement in turn-time, physician downtime, on-time patient arrival, on-time physician arrival, on-time start as well as sheath-pulls inside the Cath Lab. The percentage of cases with optimal turn-time increased from 43.6% in 2009 to 56.6% in 2012 (p-trend<0.001). Similarly, the percentage of cases with an aggregate on-time start increased from 41.7% in 2009 to 62.8% in 2012 (p-trend<0.001). In addition, the percentage of manual sheath-pulls performed in the Cath Lab decreased from 60.7% in 2009 to 22.7% in 2012 (p-trend<0.001). The current longitudinal study illustrates the impact of successful implementation of a well-known process improvement initiative, lean six sigma, on improving and sustaining efficiency of our Cath Lab operation. After the successful implementation of this continuous quality improvement initiative, there was a significant improvement in the selected performance metrics namely turn-time, physician downtime, on-time patient arrival, on-time physician arrival, on-time start as well as sheath-pulls inside the Cath Lab. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An experimental study on real time bus arrival time prediction with GPS data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

Bus headway in a rural area is usually much larger than that in an urban area. Providing real-time bus : arrival information could make the public transit system more user-friendly and thus enhance its : competitiveness among various transportation m...

An experimental study on real time bus arrival time prediction with GPS data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

Bus headway in a rural area usually is much larger than that in an urban area. Providing real-time bus arrival information could make the public transit system more user-friendly and thus enhance its competitiveness among various transportation modes...

Time structure of the EAS electron and muon components measured by the KASCADE Grande experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, W. D.; Arteaga, J. C.; Badea, A. F.; Bekk, K.; Bertaina, M.; Blümer, J.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I. M.; Brüggemann, M.; Buchholz, P.; Cantoni, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cossavella, F.; Daumiller, K.; de Souza, V.; Di Pierro, F.; Doll, P.; Engel, R.; Engler, J.; Finger, M.; Fuhrmann, D.; Ghia, P. L.; Gils, H. J.; Glasstetter, R.; Grupen, C.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hörandel, J. R.; Huege, T.; Isar, P. G.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kickelbick, D.; Klages, H. O.; Kolotaev, Y.; Luczak, P.; Mathes, H. J.; Mayer, H. J.; Meurer, C.; Milke, J.; Mitrica, B.; Morello, C.; Navarra, G.; Nehls, S.; Oehlschläger, J.; Ostapchenko, S.; Over, S.; Petcu, M.; Pierog, T.; Plewnia, S.; Rebel, H.; Roth, M.; Schieler, H.; Sima, O.; Stümpert, M.; Toma, G.; Trinchero, G. C.; Ulrich, H.; van Buren, J.; Walkowiak, W.; Weindl, A.; Wochele, J.; Zabierowski, J.

2008-06-01

Extensive air showers measured by the KASCADE-Grande experiment at the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe are studied with respect to the arrival times of electrons and muons at observation level. The mean and the spread of the arrival time distributions have been used to determine the average time profile of the electromagnetic and muonic shower disk. For core distances R>200m particles of the muonic shower component arrive on average earlier at observation level than particles of the electromagnetic shower component. The difference increases with the core distance from Δ=(12.9±0.2)ns at R>200m to Δ=(47±1)ns at R=500m, where the width of the muonic and electromagnetic shower disks are comparable. This difference in arrival time is used to separate the electrons and muons dependent on the distance from the shower center. This is intended to be used by experiments with time resolving detectors.

Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 1. Initial architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savani, N. P.; Vourlidas, A.; Szabo, A.; Mays, M. L.; Richardson, I. G.; Thompson, B. J.; Pulkkinen, A.; Evans, R.; Nieves-Chinchilla, T.

2015-06-01

The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when the solar wind magnetic field has a southward component. The most severe impacts are during the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) when the magnetosphere is both compressed and magnetically connected to the heliospheric environment. Unfortunately, forecasting magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections remain elusive. Here we report how, by combining a statistically robust helicity rule for a CME's solar origin with a simplified flux rope topology, the magnetic vectors within the Earth-directed segment of a CME can be predicted. In order to test the validity of this proof-of-concept architecture for estimating the magnetic vectors within CMEs, a total of eight CME events (between 2010 and 2014) have been investigated. With a focus on the large false alarm of January 2014, this work highlights the importance of including the early evolutionary effects of a CME for forecasting purposes. The angular rotation in the predicted magnetic field closely follows the broad rotational structure seen within the in situ data. This time-varying field estimate is implemented into a process to quantitatively predict a time-varying Kp index that is described in detail in paper II. Future statistical work, quantifying the uncertainties in this process, may improve the more heuristic approach used by early forecasting systems.

Coherent-subspace array processing based on wavelet covariance: an application to broad-band, seismo-volcanic signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saccorotti, G.; Nisii, V.; Del Pezzo, E.

2008-07-01

Long-Period (LP) and Very-Long-Period (VLP) signals are the most characteristic seismic signature of volcano dynamics, and provide important information about the physical processes occurring in magmatic and hydrothermal systems. These events are usually characterized by sharp spectral peaks, which may span several frequency decades, by emergent onsets, and by a lack of clear S-wave arrivals. These two latter features make both signal detection and location a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a processing procedure based on Continuous Wavelet Transform of multichannel, broad-band data to simultaneously solve the signal detection and location problems. Our method consists of two steps. First, we apply a frequency-dependent threshold to the estimates of the array-averaged WCO in order to locate the time-frequency regions spanned by coherent arrivals. For these data, we then use the time-series of the complex wavelet coefficients for deriving the elements of the spatial Cross-Spectral Matrix. From the eigenstructure of this matrix, we eventually estimate the kinematic signals' parameters using the MUltiple SIgnal Characterization (MUSIC) algorithm. The whole procedure greatly facilitates the detection and location of weak, broad-band signals, in turn avoiding the time-frequency resolution trade-off and frequency leakage effects which affect conventional covariance estimates based upon Windowed Fourier Transform. The method is applied to explosion signals recorded at Stromboli volcano by either a short-period, small aperture antenna, or a large-aperture, broad-band network. The LP (0.2 < T < 2s) components of the explosive signals are analysed using data from the small-aperture array and under the plane-wave assumption. In this manner, we obtain a precise time- and frequency-localization of the directional properties for waves impinging at the array. We then extend the wavefield decomposition method using a spherical wave front model, and analyse the VLP components (T > 2s) of the explosion recordings from the broad-band network. Source locations obtained this way are fully compatible with those retrieved from application of more traditional (and computationally expensive) time-domain techniques, such as the Radial Semblance method.

Design and evaluation of Continuous Descent Approach as a fuel-saving procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Li

Continuous Descent Approach (CDA), which is among the key concepts of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), is a fuel economical procedure, but requires increased separation to accommodate spacing uncertainties among arriving aircraft. Such negative impact is often overlooked when benefits are estimated. Although a considerable number of researches have been devoted to the estimation of potential fuel saving of CDA, few have attempted to explain the fuel saving observed in field tests from an analytical point of view. This research gives insights into the reasons why CDA saves fuel, and a number of design guidelines for CDA procedures are derived. The analytical relationship between speed, altitude, and time-cumulative fuel consumption is derived based on Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) Total Energy Model. Theoretical analysis implies that speed profile has an impact as substantial as, if not more than, vertical profile on the fuel consumption in the terminal area. In addition, CDA is not intrinsically a fuel-saving procedure: whether CDA saves fuel or not is contingent upon whether the speed profile is properly designed or not. Based on this model, the potential fuel savings due to CDA at San Francisco International Airport were estimated, and the accuracy of this estimation is analyzed. Possible uncertainties in this fuel estimation primarily resulted from the modeled CDA procedure and the inaccuracy of BADA. This thesis also investigates the fuel savings due to CDAs under high traffic conditions, counting not only the savings benefiting from optimal vertical profiles but also the extra fuel burn resulting from the increased separations. The simulated CDAs traffic is based on radar track data, and deconflicted by a scheduling algorithm that targets minimized delays. The delays are absorbed by speed change and path stretching, accounting for the air traffic controls that are entailed by CDAs. The fuel burn statistics calculated based on the BADA Total Energy Model reveals that the CDAs save on average 171.87 kg per arrival, but the number is discounted by delay absorption. The savings diminish as the arrival demand increases, and could be even negative due to large delays. The throughput analysis demonstrated that the impact of CDA on airport capacity is insignificant and tolerable. The Atlanta International Airport was used as the testbed for sensitivity analysis, and the New York Metroplex was used as the test bed for throughput analysis.

Source localization of non-stationary acoustic data using time-frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoughton, Jack; Edmonson, William

2005-04-01

An improvement in temporal locality of the generalized cross-correlation (GCC) for angle of arrival (AOA) estimation can be achieved by employing 2-D cross-correlation of infrasonic sensor data transformed to its time-frequency (TF) representation. Intermediate to the AOA evaluation is the time delay between pairs of sensors. The signal class of interest includes far field sources which are partially coherent across the array, nonstationary, and wideband. In addition, signals can occur as multiple short bursts, for which TF representations may be more appropriate for time delay estimation. The GCC tends to smooth out such temporal energy bursts. Simulation and experimental results will demonstrate the improvement in using a TF-based GCC, using the Cohen class, over the classic GCC method. Comparative demonstration of the methods will be performed on data captured on an infrasonic sensor array located at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The infrasonic data sources include Delta IV and Space Shuttle launches from Kennedy Space Center which belong to the stated signal class. Of interest is to apply this method to the AOA estimation of atmospheric turbulence. [Work supported by NASA LaRC Creativity and Innovation project: Infrasonic Detection of Clear Air Turbulence and Severe Storms.

An Investigation of the Combat Air Patrol Stationing in an Integrated Air Defense Scenario

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

interceptor to go to CAP station takes off at time t = 0. At time t = toc this interceptor arrives at station and, because no attacker arrives, it...has arrived on station and for this to be possible, the third interceptor has taken off at time t = toc + 2tn - to= = 2t. Meanwhile, the first...that tc > 0 and (tbc + tnp + tA) > 0. Under these assumptions we have that aircraft number 2 will always be used because ( toc + t= + tj, + te + tAI

How Do Vision and Hearing Impact Pedestrian Time-to-Arrival Judgments?

PubMed Central

Roper, JulieAnne M.; Hassan, Shirin E.

2014-01-01

Purpose To determine how accurate normally-sighted male and female pedestrians were at making time-to-arrival (TTA) judgments of approaching vehicles when using just their hearing or both their hearing and vision. Methods Ten male and 14 female subjects with confirmed normal vision and hearing estimated the TTA of approaching vehicles along an unsignalized street under two sensory conditions: (i) using both habitual vision and hearing; and (ii) using habitual hearing only. All subjects estimated how long the approaching vehicle would take to reach them (ie the TTA). The actual TTA of vehicles was also measured using custom made sensors. The error in TTA judgments for each subject under each sensory condition was calculated as the difference between the actual and estimated TTA. A secondary timing experiment was also conducted to adjust each subject’s TTA judgments for their “internal metronome”. Results Error in TTA judgments changed significantly as a function of both the actual TTA (p<0.0001) and sensory condition (p<0.0001). While no main effect for gender was found (p=0.19), the way the TTA judgments varied within each sensory condition for each gender was different (p<0.0001). Females tended to be as accurate under either condition (p≥0.01) with the exception of TTA judgments made when the actual TTA was two seconds or less and eight seconds or longer, during which the vision and hearing condition was more accurate (p≤0.002). Males made more accurate TTA judgments under the hearing only condition for actual TTA values five seconds or less (p<0.0001), after which there were no significant differences between the two conditions (p≥0.01). Conclusions Our data suggests that males and females use visual and auditory information differently when making TTA judgments. While the sensory condition did not affect the females’ accuracy in judgments, males initially tended to be more accurate when using their hearing only. PMID:24509543

Evaluation of a dense seismic array for acquisition of high quality data in the ACROSS observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuruga, K.; Kunitomo, T.; Hasada, Y.; Kumazawa, M.; Shigeta, N.; Kasahara, J.

2004-12-01

ACROSS is an active monitoring methodology to detect any subtle temporal change of physical properties in the Earth's interior. We demonstrate the potentiality of the ACROSS observation with a dense sensor array. We have conducted a dense seismic array observation at the distance of 1 km from the ACROSS source since 2003. The array is composed of 36 three-component velocity seismometers buried at 1.8 m deep in an area 25 m square. All the data are recorded accurately referring to a GPS clock. We derived and analyzed a transfer function (TF) from the source to a receiver by the following steps: (1) evaluating a force vector as source characteristics, (2) converting the observed data to the displacement vectors by incorporating all the corrections of the instruments, (3) stacking the observed data for an enough time to suppress the temporal noise, (4) extracting ACROSS signal and evaluating noise level, (5) representing TF in a tensor form with the estimated errors, (6) slant-stacking with variable ray parameters, (7) estimating the travel times and amplitudes of the wave arrivals by Sompi Event Analysis (Hasada et al., 2001) and representing the result by a pulse sequence, and (8) deriving the polarization vector for each arrival to identify all the wave modes. We analyzed TF of SH-wave component from 16 to 20 Hz as an example. We obtained good quality TF with S/N ratio up to 104 by stacking for 12 days at the step (3). The spatial noise originated from the local heterogeneity around the array was eliminated by the step (6). Several arrivals were recognized within the time windows from 0.6 to 1.8 s. The maximum amplitude of event traces was detected at the travel time of 1.064 s with a ray parameter of 7.9x10-4 s/m. We also found the scattered waves probably generated by the heterogeneities around the array. The ACROSS dense array observation would provide a lot of information on the underground heterogeneities. Consequently, we have the important and challenging subjects: (1) optimum designing of ACROSS array to acquire the better data and (2) development of new theoretical method to deal with the variable types of the wave.

Impulse propagation in the nocturnal boundary layer: analysis of the geometric component.

PubMed

Blom, Philip; Waxler, Roger

2012-05-01

On clear dry nights over flat land, a temperature inversion and stable nocturnal wind jet lead to an acoustic duct in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere. An impulsive signal propagating in such a duct is received at long ranges from the source as an extended wave train consisting of a series of weakly dispersed distinct arrivals followed by a strongly dispersed low-frequency tail. The leading distinct arrivals have been previously shown to be well modeled by geometric acoustics. In this paper, the geometric acoustics approximation for the leading arrivals is investigated. Using the solutions of the eikonal and transport equations, travel times, amplitudes, and caustic structures of the distinct arrivals have been determined. The time delay between and relative amplitudes of the direct-refracted and single ground reflection arrivals have been investigated as parameters for an inversion scheme. A two parameter quadratic approximation to the effective sound speed profile has been fit and found to be in strong agreement with meteorological measurements from the time of propagation.

Aliasing, Ambiguities, and Interpolation in Wideband Direction-of-Arrival Estimation Using Antenna Arrays

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Chung-Cheng

2016-01-01

For decades, direction finding has been an important research topic in many applications such as radar, location services, and medical diagnosis for treatment. For those kinds of applications, the precision of location estimation plays an important role, since that, having a higher precision location estimate method is always desirable. Although…

Strengthening economy through tourism sector by tourist arrival prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriatna, A.; Subartini, B.; Hertini, E.; Sukono; Rumaisha; Istiqamah, N.

2018-03-01

Tourism sector has a tendency to be proposed as a support for national economy to many countries with various of natural resources, such as Indonesia. The number of tourist is very related with the success rate of a tourist attraction, since it is also related with planning and strategy. Hence, it is important to predict the climate of tourism in Indonesia, especially the number of domestic or international tourist in the future. This study uses Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series method to predict the number of tourist arrival to tourism strategic areas in Nusa Tenggara Barat. The prediction was done using the international and domestic tourist arrival to Nusa Tenggara Barat data from January 2008 to June 2016. The established SARIMA method was (0,1,1)(0,0,2)12 with MAPE error of 15.76. The prediction for the next six time periods showed that the highest number of tourist arrival is during September 2016 with 330,516 tourist arrivals. Prediction of tourist arrival hopefully might be used as reference for local and national government to make policies to strengthen national economy for a long period of time

Nonlinear Localized Dissipative Structures for Long-Time Solution of Wave Equation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

are described in this chapter. These details are required to compute interference. WC can be used to generate constant arrival time ( Eikonal phase...complicated using Eikonal schemes. Some recent developments in Eikonal methods [2] can treat multiple arrival times but, these methods require extra

Quantitative Risk Assessment for African Horse Sickness in Live Horses Exported from South Africa

PubMed Central

Sergeant, Evan S.

2016-01-01

African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe, often fatal, arbovirus infection of horses, transmitted by Culicoides spp. midges. AHS occurs in most of sub-Saharan Africa and is a significant impediment to export of live horses from infected countries, such as South Africa. A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the probability of exporting an undetected AHS-infected horse through a vector protected pre-export quarantine facility, in accordance with OIE recommendations for trade from an infected country. The model also allows for additional risk management measures, including multiple PCR tests prior to and during pre-export quarantine and optionally during post-arrival quarantine, as well as for comparison of risk associated with exports from a demonstrated low-risk area for AHS and an area where AHS is endemic. If 1 million horses were exported from the low-risk area with no post-arrival quarantine we estimate the median number of infected horses to be 5.4 (95% prediction interval 0.5 to 41). This equates to an annual probability of 0.0016 (95% PI: 0.00015 to 0.012) assuming 300 horses exported per year. An additional PCR test while in vector-protected post-arrival quarantine reduced these probabilities by approximately 12-fold. Probabilities for horses exported from an area where AHS is endemic were approximately 15 to 17 times higher than for horses exported from the low-risk area under comparable scenarios. The probability of undetected AHS infection in horses exported from an infected country can be minimised by appropriate risk management measures. The final choice of risk management measures depends on the level of risk acceptable to the importing country. PMID:26986002

Validation of the CME Geomagnetic Forecast Alerts Under the COMESEP Alert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbović, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Rao, Yamini K.; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

2017-08-01

Under the European Union 7th Framework Programme (EU FP7) project Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP, http://comesep.aeronomy.be), an automated space weather alert system has been developed to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. The COMESEP alert system uses the automated detection tool called Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) to detect potentially threatening CMEs, a drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival, and a CME geoeffectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, the DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and the CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. The geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geoeffectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with the COMESEP alert system based on a study of geoeffective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is made by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of the DBM and CGFT (independent tools available at the Hvar Observatory website, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results indicate that the success rate of the forecast in its current form is unacceptably low for a realistic operation system. Human intervention improves the forecast, but the false-alarm rate remains unacceptably high. We discuss these results and their implications for possible improvement of the COMESEP alert system.

Quantitative Risk Assessment for African Horse Sickness in Live Horses Exported from South Africa.

PubMed

Sergeant, Evan S; Grewar, John D; Weyer, Camilla T; Guthrie, Alan J

2016-01-01

African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe, often fatal, arbovirus infection of horses, transmitted by Culicoides spp. midges. AHS occurs in most of sub-Saharan Africa and is a significant impediment to export of live horses from infected countries, such as South Africa. A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the probability of exporting an undetected AHS-infected horse through a vector protected pre-export quarantine facility, in accordance with OIE recommendations for trade from an infected country. The model also allows for additional risk management measures, including multiple PCR tests prior to and during pre-export quarantine and optionally during post-arrival quarantine, as well as for comparison of risk associated with exports from a demonstrated low-risk area for AHS and an area where AHS is endemic. If 1 million horses were exported from the low-risk area with no post-arrival quarantine we estimate the median number of infected horses to be 5.4 (95% prediction interval 0.5 to 41). This equates to an annual probability of 0.0016 (95% PI: 0.00015 to 0.012) assuming 300 horses exported per year. An additional PCR test while in vector-protected post-arrival quarantine reduced these probabilities by approximately 12-fold. Probabilities for horses exported from an area where AHS is endemic were approximately 15 to 17 times higher than for horses exported from the low-risk area under comparable scenarios. The probability of undetected AHS infection in horses exported from an infected country can be minimised by appropriate risk management measures. The final choice of risk management measures depends on the level of risk acceptable to the importing country.

Separation of the electromagnetic and the muon component in EAS by their arrival times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brüggemann, M.; Apel, W.D.; Arteaga, J.C.; Badea, F.; Bekk, K.; Bertaina, M.; Blümer, J.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I.M.; Buchholz, P.; Chiavassa, A.; Cossavella, F.; Daumiller, K.; de Souza, V.; Di Pierro, F.; Doll, P.; Engel, R.; Engler, J.; Finger, M.; Fuhrmann, D.; Ghia, P.L.; Gils, H.J.; Glasstetter, R.; Grupen, C.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hörandel, J.R.; Huege, T.; Isar, P.G.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kickelbick, D.; Klages, H.O.; Kolotaev, Y.; Luczak, P.; Mathes, H.J.; Mayer, H.J.; Meurer, C.; Milke, J.; Mitrica, B.; Morales, A.; Morello, C.; Navarra, G.; Nehls, S.; Oehlschläger, J.; Ostapchenko, S.; Over, S.; Petcu, M.; Pierog, T.; Plewnia, S.; Rebel, H.; Roth, M.; Schieler, H.; Sima, O.; Stümpert, M.; Toma, G.; Trinchero, G.C.; Ulrich, H.; van Buren, J.; Walkowiak, W.; Weindl, A.; Wochele, J.; Zabierowski, J.

The KASCADE-Grande experiment at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany, measures extensive air showers initiated by primary particles with energies between 100 TeV and 1 EeV. Detector pulses digitized by a Flash-ADC based data acquisition system were unfolded to study the arrival times of secondary particles separately for the electromagnetic and the muonic shower component. Muons arrive on average earlier at ground level than electrons. A cut on the particle arrival time has been determined as a function of the distance to the shower core for the separation of electrons and muons. This cut is intended to be used for the determination of the muon content of air showers in experiments without dedicated muon detectors but with time resolving detector electronics. The muon content is essential for the reconstruction of the cosmic ray energy spectrum separated into individual elemental groups.

A Case Study of Array-based Early Warning System for Tsunami Offshore Ventura, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Y.; Meng, L.

2017-12-01

Extreme scenarios of M 7.5+ earthquakes on the Red Mountain and Pitas Point faults can potentially generate significant local tsunamis in southern California. The maximum water elevation could be as large as 10 m in the nearshore region of Oxnard and Santa Barbara. Recent development in seismic array processing enables rapid tsunami prediction and early warning based on the back-projection approach (BP). The idea is to estimate the rupture size by back-tracing the seismic body waves recorded by stations at local and regional distances. A simplified source model of uniform slip is constructed and used as an input for tsunami simulations that predict the tsunami wave height and arrival time. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in southern California by implementing it in a simulated real-time environment and applying to a hypothetical M 7.7 Dip-slip earthquake scenario on the Pitas Point fault. Synthetic seismograms are produced using the SCEC broadband platform based on the 3D SoCal community velocity model. We use S-wave instead of P-wave to avoid S-minus-P travel times shorter than rupture duration. Two clusters of strong-motion stations near Bakersfield and Palmdale are selected to determine the back-azimuth of the strongest high-frequency radiations (0.5-1 Hz). The back-azimuths of the two clusters are then intersected to locate the source positions. The rupture area is then approximated by enclosing these BP radiators with an ellipse or a polygon. Our preliminary results show that the extent of 1294 square kilometers rupture area and magnitude of 7.6 obtained by this approach is reasonably close to the 1849 square kilometers and 7.7 of the input model. The average slip of 7.3 m is then estimated according to the scaling relation between slip and rupture area, which is close to the actual average dislocation amount, 8.3 m. Finally, a tsunami simulation is conducted to assess the wave height and arrival time. The errors of -3 to +9 s in arrival time and 0.4 m in wave amplitude are reasonably small for early warning purpose. The blind zone for early warning is the region north of the outcrop of Pitas Point faults and has a scale close to the length of the fault, 43 km. The warning time is above 15 min in the nearshore region west of Cojo Bay Beach and south of Oxnard.

Localization of small arms fire using acoustic measurements of muzzle blast and/or ballistic shock wave arrivals.

PubMed

Lo, Kam W; Ferguson, Brian G

2012-11-01

The accurate localization of small arms fire using fixed acoustic sensors is considered. First, the conventional wavefront-curvature passive ranging method, which requires only differential time-of-arrival (DTOA) measurements of the muzzle blast wave to estimate the source position, is modified to account for sensor positions that are not strictly collinear (bowed array). Second, an existing single-sensor-node ballistic model-based localization method, which requires both DTOA and differential angle-of-arrival (DAOA) measurements of the muzzle blast wave and ballistic shock wave, is improved by replacing the basic external ballistics model (which describes the bullet's deceleration along its trajectory) with a more rigorous model and replacing the look-up table ranging procedure with a nonlinear (or polynomial) equation-based ranging procedure. Third, a new multiple-sensor-node ballistic model-based localization method, which requires only DTOA measurements of the ballistic shock wave to localize the point of fire, is formulated. The first method is applicable to situations when only the muzzle blast wave is received, whereas the third method applies when only the ballistic shock wave is received. The effectiveness of each of these methods is verified using an extensive set of real data recorded during a 7 day field experiment.

Access to Care in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy, New Jersey, 2012.

PubMed

Davidow, Amy L; Thomas, Pauline; Kim, Soyeon; Passannante, Marian; Tsai, Stella; Tan, Christina

2016-06-01

Evacuation and damage following a widespread natural disaster may affect short-term access to medical care. We estimated medical care needs in New Jersey following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Hurricane Sandy-related questions regarding medical needs included in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey were administered to survey respondents living in New Jersey when Sandy occurred. Recently arrived foreign-born residents were more likely than US-born residents to need medical care following Sandy. Others with greater medical needs included the uninsured and evacuees. Persons who evacuated or lived in areas that experienced the greatest hurricane impact were less likely to be able to fill a prescription. Only 15% of New Jerseyans were aware of the Emergency Pharmaceutical Assistance Program (EPAP), a federal program which allows prescription refills for the uninsured following a disaster. Recently arrived foreign-born residents and the uninsured were less frequently aware of EPAP: 8.7% and 10.9%. Populations with impaired access to care in normal times-such as the recently arrived foreign-born and the uninsured-were also at risk of compromised access in the hurricane's aftermath. Measures to address prescription refills during a disaster need better promotion among at-risk populations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:485-491).

Design of automation tools for management of descent traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erzberger, Heinz; Nedell, William

1988-01-01

The design of an automated air traffic control system based on a hierarchy of advisory tools for controllers is described. Compatibility of the tools with the human controller, a key objective of the design, is achieved by a judicious selection of tasks to be automated and careful attention to the design of the controller system interface. The design comprises three interconnected subsystems referred to as the Traffic Management Advisor, the Descent Advisor, and the Final Approach Spacing Tool. Each of these subsystems provides a collection of tools for specific controller positions and tasks. This paper focuses primarily on the Descent Advisor which provides automation tools for managing descent traffic. The algorithms, automation modes, and graphical interfaces incorporated in the design are described. Information generated by the Descent Advisor tools is integrated into a plan view traffic display consisting of a high-resolution color monitor. Estimated arrival times of aircraft are presented graphically on a time line, which is also used interactively in combination with a mouse input device to select and schedule arrival times. Other graphical markers indicate the location of the fuel-optimum top-of-descent point and the predicted separation distances of aircraft at a designated time-control point. Computer generated advisories provide speed and descent clearances which the controller can issue to aircraft to help them arrive at the feeder gate at the scheduled times or with specified separation distances. Two types of horizontal guidance modes, selectable by the controller, provide markers for managing the horizontal flightpaths of aircraft under various conditions. The entire system consisting of descent advisor algorithm, a library of aircraft performance models, national airspace system data bases, and interactive display software has been implemented on a workstation made by Sun Microsystems, Inc. It is planned to use this configuration in operational evaluations at an en route center.

The Value Estimation of an HFGW Frequency Time Standard for Telecommunications Network Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, Colby; Stephenson, Gary

2007-01-01

The emerging technology of gravitational wave control is used to augment a communication system using a development roadmap suggested in Stephenson (2003) for applications emphasized in Baker (2005). In the present paper consideration is given to the value of a High Frequency Gravitational Wave (HFGW) channel purely as providing a method of frequency and time reference distribution for use within conventional Radio Frequency (RF) telecommunications networks. Specifically, the native value of conventional telecommunications networks may be optimized by using an unperturbed frequency time standard (FTS) to (1) improve terminal navigation and Doppler estimation performance via improved time difference of arrival (TDOA) from a universal time reference, and (2) improve acquisition speed, coding efficiency, and dynamic bandwidth efficiency through the use of a universal frequency reference. A model utilizing a discounted cash flow technique provides an estimation of the additional value using HFGW FTS technology could bring to a mixed technology HFGW/RF network. By applying a simple net present value analysis with supporting reference valuations to such a network, it is demonstrated that an HFGW FTS could create a sizable improvement within an otherwise conventional RF telecommunications network. Our conservative model establishes a low-side value estimate of approximately 50B USD Net Present Value for an HFGW FTS service, with reasonable potential high-side values to significant multiples of this low-side value floor.

A study on the impact of prioritising emergency department arrivals on the patient waiting time.

PubMed

Van Bockstal, Ellen; Maenhout, Broos

2018-05-03

In the past decade, the crowding of the emergency department has gained considerable attention of researchers as the number of medical service providers is typically insufficient to fulfil the demand for emergency care. In this paper, we solve the stochastic emergency department workforce planning problem and consider the planning of nurses and physicians simultaneously for a real-life case study in Belgium. We study the patient arrival pattern of the emergency department in depth and consider different patient acuity classes by disaggregating the arrival pattern. We determine the personnel staffing requirements and the design of the shifts based on the patient arrival rates per acuity class such that the resource staffing cost and the weighted patient waiting time are minimised. In order to solve this multi-objective optimisation problem, we construct a Pareto set of optimal solutions via the -constraints method. For a particular staffing composition, the proposed model minimises the patient waiting time subject to upper bounds on the staffing size using the Sample Average Approximation Method. In our computational experiments, we discern the impact of prioritising the emergency department arrivals. Triaging results in lower patient waiting times for higher priority acuity classes and to a higher waiting time for the lowest priority class, which does not require immediate care. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis to verify the impact of the arrival and service pattern characteristics, the prioritisation weights between different acuity classes and the incorporated shift flexibility in the model.

Fiber optic sensor employing successively destroyed coupled points or reflectors for detecting shock wave speed and damage location

DOEpatents

Weiss, Jonathan D.

1995-01-01

A shock velocity and damage location sensor providing a means of measuring shock speed and damage location. The sensor consists of a long series of time-of-arrival "points" constructed with fiber optics. The fiber optic sensor apparatus measures shock velocity as the fiber sensor is progressively crushed as a shock wave proceeds in a direction along the fiber. The light received by a receiving means changes as time-of-arrival points are destroyed as the sensor is disturbed by the shock. The sensor may comprise a transmitting fiber bent into a series of loops and fused to a receiving fiber at various places, time-of-arrival points, along the receiving fibers length. At the "points" of contact, where a portion of the light leaves the transmitting fiber and enters the receiving fiber, the loops would be required to allow the light to travel backwards through the receiving fiber toward a receiving means. The sensor may also comprise a single optical fiber wherein the time-of-arrival points are comprised of reflection planes distributed along the fibers length. In this configuration, as the shock front proceeds along the fiber it destroys one reflector after another. The output received by a receiving means from this sensor may be a series of downward steps produced as the shock wave destroys one time-of-arrival point after another, or a nonsequential pattern of steps in the event time-of-arrival points are destroyed at any point along the sensor.

Fiber optic sensor employing successively destroyed coupled points or reflectors for detecting shock wave speed and damage location

DOEpatents

Weiss, J.D.

1995-08-29

A shock velocity and damage location sensor providing a means of measuring shock speed and damage location is disclosed. The sensor consists of a long series of time-of-arrival ``points`` constructed with fiber optics. The fiber optic sensor apparatus measures shock velocity as the fiber sensor is progressively crushed as a shock wave proceeds in a direction along the fiber. The light received by a receiving means changes as time-of-arrival points are destroyed as the sensor is disturbed by the shock. The sensor may comprise a transmitting fiber bent into a series of loops and fused to a receiving fiber at various places, time-of-arrival points, along the receiving fibers length. At the ``points`` of contact, where a portion of the light leaves the transmitting fiber and enters the receiving fiber, the loops would be required to allow the light to travel backwards through the receiving fiber toward a receiving means. The sensor may also comprise a single optical fiber wherein the time-of-arrival points are comprised of reflection planes distributed along the fibers length. In this configuration, as the shock front proceeds along the fiber it destroys one reflector after another. The output received by a receiving means from this sensor may be a series of downward steps produced as the shock wave destroys one time-of-arrival point after another, or a nonsequential pattern of steps in the event time-of-arrival points are destroyed at any point along the sensor. 6 figs.

Crossing fitness canyons by a finite population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saakian, David B.; Bratus, Alexander S.; Hu, Chin-Kun

2017-06-01

We consider the Wright-Fisher model of the finite population evolution on a fitness landscape defined in the sequence space by a path of nearly neutral mutations. We study a specific structure of the fitness landscape: One of the intermediate mutations on the mutation path results in either a large fitness value (climbing up a fitness hill) or a low fitness value (crossing a fitness canyon), the rest of the mutations besides the last one are neutral, and the last sequence has much higher fitness than any intermediate sequence. We derive analytical formulas for the first arrival time of the mutant with two point mutations. For the first arrival problem for the further mutants in the case of canyon crossing, we analytically deduce how the mean first arrival time scales with the population size and fitness difference. The location of the canyon on the path of sequences has a crucial role. If the canyon is at the beginning of the path, then it significantly prolongs the first arrival time; otherwise it just slightly changes it. Furthermore, the fitness hill at the beginning of the path strongly prolongs the arrival time period; however, the hill located near the end of the path shortens it. We optimize the first arrival time by applying a nonzero selection to the intermediate sequences. We extend our results and provide a scaling for the valley crossing time via the depth of the canyon and population size in the case of a fitness canyon at the first position. Our approach is useful for understanding some complex evolution systems, e.g., the evolution of cancer.

Reducing time-to-unit among patients referred to an outpatient stroke assessment unit with a novel triage process: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Bibok, Maximilian B; Votova, Kristine; Balshaw, Robert F; Lesperance, Mary L; Croteau, Nicole S; Trivedi, Anurag; Morrison, Jaclyn; Sedgwick, Colin; Penn, Andrew M

2018-02-27

To evaluate the performance of a novel triage system for Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA) units built upon an existent clinical prediction rule (CPR) to reduce time to unit arrival, relative to the time of symptom onset, for true TIA and minor stroke patients. Differentiating between true and false TIA/minor stroke cases (mimics) is necessary for effective triage as medical intervention for true TIA/minor stroke is time-sensitive and TIA unit spots are a finite resource. Prospective cohort study design utilizing patient referral data and TIA unit arrival times from a regional fast-track TIA unit on Vancouver Island, Canada, accepting referrals from emergency departments (ED) and general practice (GP). Historical referral cohort (N = 2942) from May 2013-Oct 2014 was triaged using the ABCD2 score; prospective referral cohort (N = 2929) from Nov 2014-Apr 2016 was triaged using the novel system. A retrospective survival curve analysis, censored at 28 days to unit arrival, was used to compare days to unit arrival from event date between cohort patients matched by low (0-3), moderate (4-5) and high (6-7) ABCD2 scores. Survival curve analysis indicated that using the novel triage system, prospectively referred TIA/minor stroke patients with low and moderate ABCD2 scores arrived at the unit 2 and 1 day earlier than matched historical patients, respectively. The novel triage process is associated with a reduction in time to unit arrival from symptom onset for referred true TIA/minor stroke patients with low and moderate ABCD2 scores.

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z. Daniel; USA, Richland Washington; ...

2014-11-27

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developedmore » using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.« less

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z. Daniel; Sun, Yannan; Martinez, Jayson J.; Fu, Tao; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Carlson, Thomas J.

2014-11-01

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developed using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters

PubMed Central

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z. Daniel; Sun, Yannan; Martinez, Jayson J.; Fu, Tao; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Carlson, Thomas J.

2014-01-01

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developed using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature. PMID:25427517

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters.

PubMed

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z Daniel; Sun, Yannan; Martinez, Jayson J; Fu, Tao; McMichael, Geoffrey A; Carlson, Thomas J

2014-11-27

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developed using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.

A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Deng, Z. Daniel; USA, Richland Washington

Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developedmore » using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.« less

TSaT-MUSIC: a novel algorithm for rapid and accurate ultrasonic 3D localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizutani, Kyohei; Ito, Toshio; Sugimoto, Masanori; Hashizume, Hiromichi

2011-12-01

We describe a fast and accurate indoor localization technique using the multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm. The MUSIC algorithm is known as a high-resolution method for estimating directions of arrival (DOAs) or propagation delays. A critical problem in using the MUSIC algorithm for localization is its computational complexity. Therefore, we devised a novel algorithm called Time Space additional Temporal-MUSIC, which can rapidly and simultaneously identify DOAs and delays of mul-ticarrier ultrasonic waves from transmitters. Computer simulations have proved that the computation time of the proposed algorithm is almost constant in spite of increasing numbers of incoming waves and is faster than that of existing methods based on the MUSIC algorithm. The robustness of the proposed algorithm is discussed through simulations. Experiments in real environments showed that the standard deviation of position estimations in 3D space is less than 10 mm, which is satisfactory for indoor localization.

Characterization of compounds by time-of-flight measurement utilizing random fast ions

DOEpatents

Conzemius, R.J.

1989-04-04

An apparatus is described for characterizing the mass of sample and daughter particles, comprising a source for providing sample ions; a fragmentation region wherein a fraction of the sample ions may fragment to produce daughter ion particles; an electrostatic field region held at a voltage level sufficient to effect ion-neutral separation and ion-ion separation of fragments from the same sample ion and to separate ions of different kinetic energy; a detector system for measuring the relative arrival times of particles; and processing means operatively connected to the detector system to receive and store the relative arrival times and operable to compare the arrival times with times detected at the detector when the electrostatic field region is held at a different voltage level and to thereafter characterize the particles. Sample and daughter particles are characterized with respect to mass and other characteristics by detecting at a particle detector the relative time of arrival for fragments of a sample ion at two different electrostatic voltage levels. The two sets of particle arrival times are used in conjunction with the known altered voltage levels to mathematically characterize the sample and daughter fragments. In an alternative embodiment the present invention may be used as a detector for a conventional mass spectrometer. In this embodiment, conventional mass spectrometry analysis is enhanced due to further mass resolving of the detected ions. 8 figs.

Characterization of compounds by time-of-flight measurement utilizing random fast ions

DOEpatents

Conzemius, Robert J.

1989-01-01

An apparatus for characterizing the mass of sample and daughter particles, comprising a source for providing sample ions; a fragmentation region wherein a fraction of the sample ions may fragment to produce daughter ion particles; an electrostatic field region held at a voltage level sufficient to effect ion-neutral separation and ion-ion separation of fragments from the same sample ion and to separate ions of different kinetic energy; a detector system for measuring the relative arrival times of particles; and processing means operatively connected to the detector system to receive and store the relative arrival times and operable to compare the arrival times with times detected at the detector when the electrostatic field region is held at a different voltage level and to thereafter characterize the particles. Sample and daughter particles are characterized with respect to mass and other characteristics by detecting at a particle detector the relative time of arrival for fragments of a sample ion at two different electrostatic voltage levels. The two sets of particle arrival times are used in conjunction with the known altered voltage levels to mathematically characterize the sample and daughter fragments. In an alternative embodiment the present invention may be used as a detector for a conventional mass spectrometer. In this embodiment, conventional mass spectrometry analysis is enhanced due to further mass resolving of the detected ions.

Processing of the Liquid Xenon calorimeter's signals for timing measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epshteyn, L. B.; Yudin, Yu V.

2014-09-01

One of the goals of the Cryogenic Magnetic Detector at Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics SB RAS (Novosibirsk, Russia) is a study of nucleons production in electron-positron collisions near threshold. The neutron-antineutron pair production events can be detected only by the calorimeters. In the barrel calorimeter the antineutron annihilation typically occurs by 5 ns or later after beams crossing. For identification of such events it is necessary to measure the time of flight of particles to the LXe-calorimeter with accuracy of about 3 ns. The LXe-calorimeter consists of 14 layers of ionization chambers with anode and cathode readout. The duration of charge collection to the anodes is about 4.5 mks, while the required accuracy of measuring of the signal arrival time is less than 1/1000 of that. Besides, the signals' shapes differ substantially from event to event, so the signal arrival time is measured in two stages. At the first stage, the signal arrival time is determined with an accuracy of 1-2 discretization periods, and initial values of parameters for subsequent fitting procedure are calculated. At the second stage, the signal arrival time is determined with the required accuracy by means of fitting of the signal waveform with a template waveform. To implement that, a special electronics has been developed which performs waveform digitization and On-Line measurement of signals' arrival times and amplitudes.

Comparison of helicopter and ground emergency medical service: a retrospective analysis of a German rescue helicopter base.

PubMed

Mommsen, Philipp; Bradt, Nikolas; Zeckey, Christian; Andruszkow, Hagen; Petri, Max; Frink, Michael; Hildebrand, Frank; Krettek, Christian; Probst, Christian

2012-01-01

In consideration of rising cost pressure in the German health care system, the usefulness of helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) in terms of time- and cost-effectiveness is controversially discussed. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether HEMS is associated with significantly decreased arrival and transportation times compared to ground EMS. In a retrospective study, we evaluated 1,548 primary emergency missions for time sensitive diagnoses (multiple trauma, traumatic brain and burn injury, heart-attack, stroke, and pediatric emergency) performed by a German HEMS using the medical database, NADIN, of the German Air Rescue Service. Arrival and transportation times were compared to calculated ground EMS times. HEMS showed significantly reduced arrival times at the scene in case of heart-attack, stroke and pediatric emergencies. In contrast, HEMS and ground EMS showed comparable arrival times in patients with multiple trauma, traumatic brain and burn injury due to an increased flight distance. HEMS showed a significantly decreased transportation time to the closest centre capable of specialist care in all diagnosis groups (p<0.001). The results of the present study indicate the time-effectiveness of German air ambulance services with significantly decreased transportation times.

The feasibility, time savings and economic impact of a designated time appointment system at a busy HIV care clinic in Kenya: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Kwena, Zachary A; Njoroge, Betty W; Cohen, Craig R; Oyaro, Patrick; Shikari, Rosemary; Kibaara, Charles K; Bukusi, Elizabeth A

2015-01-01

As efforts are made to reach universal access to ART in Kenya, the problem of congestion at HIV care clinics is likely to worsen. We evaluated the feasibility and the economic benefits of a designated time appointment system as a solution to decongest HIV care clinics. This was an explanatory two-arm open-label randomized controlled trial that enrolled 354 consenting participants during their normal clinic days and followed-up at subsequent clinic appointments for up to nine months. Intervention arm participants were given specific dates and times to arrive at the clinic for their next appointment while those in the control arm were only given the date and had the discretion to decide on the time to arrive as is the standard practice. At follow-up visits, we recorded arrival and departure times and asked the monetary value of work participants engaged in before and after clinic. We conducted multiple imputation to replace missing data in our primary outcome variables to allow for intention-to-treat analysis; and analyzed the data using Mann-Whitney U test. Overall, 72.1% of the intervention participants arrived on time, 13.3% arrived ahead of time and 14.6% arrived past scheduled time. Intervention arm participants spent a median of 65 [interquartile range (IQR), 52-87] minutes at the clinic compared to 197 (IQR, 173-225) minutes for control participants (p<0.01). Furthermore, intervention arm participants were more productively engaged on their clinic days valuing their cumulative work at a median of USD 10.5 (IQR, 60.0-16.8) compared to participants enrolled in the control arm who valued their work at USD 8.3 (IQR, 5.5-12.9; p=0.02). A designated time appointment system is feasible and provides substantial time savings associated with greater economic productivity for HIV patients attending a busy HIV care clinic.

Observation of arrival times of EAS with energies or = 6 x 10 (14) eV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, L.

1985-01-01

The Earth's atmosphere is continually being bombarded by primary cosmic ray particles which are generally believed to be high-energy nuclei. The fact that the majority of cosmic ray primaries are charged particles and that space is permeated with random magnetic fields, means that the particles do not travel in straight lines. The arrival time distribution of EAS may also transfer some information about the primary particles. Actually, if the particles come to our Earth in a completely random process, the arrival time distribution of pairs of successive particles should fit an exponential law. The work reported here was arried out at Sydney University from May 1982 to January 1983. All the data are used to plot the arrival-time distribution of the events, that is, the distribution of time-separation between consecutive events on a 1 minute bin size. During this period more than 2300 showers were recorded. The results are discussed and compared with that of some other experiments.

Cost of vaccinating refugees overseas versus after arrival in the United States, 2005.

PubMed

2008-03-07

Since 2000, approximately 50,000 refugees have entered the United States each year from various regions of the world. Although persons with immigrant status are legally required to be vaccinated before entering the United States, this requirement does not extend to U.S.-bound persons with refugee status. After 1 year in the United States, refugees can apply for a change of status to that of legal permanent resident, at which time they are required to be fully vaccinated in accordance with recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). A potentially less costly alternative might be to vaccinate U.S.-bound refugees overseas routinely, before they depart from refugee camps. To compare the cost of vaccinating refugees overseas versus after their arrival in the United States, CDC analyzed 2005 data on the number of refugees, cost of vaccine, and cost of vaccine administration. This report summarizes the results of that analysis, which suggested that, in 2005, vaccinating 50,787 refugees overseas would have cost an estimated $7.7 million, less than one third of the estimated $26.0 million cost of vaccinating in the United States. Costs were calculated from the perspective of the U.S. health-care system. To achieve public health cost savings, routine overseas vaccination of U.S.-bound refugees should be considered.

Multiple-Parameter Estimation Method Based on Spatio-Temporal 2-D Processing for Bistatic MIMO Radar

PubMed Central

Yang, Shouguo; Li, Yong; Zhang, Kunhui; Tang, Weiping

2015-01-01

A novel spatio-temporal 2-dimensional (2-D) processing method that can jointly estimate the transmitting-receiving azimuth and Doppler frequency for bistatic multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar in the presence of spatial colored noise and an unknown number of targets is proposed. In the temporal domain, the cross-correlation of the matched filters’ outputs for different time-delay sampling is used to eliminate the spatial colored noise. In the spatial domain, the proposed method uses a diagonal loading method and subspace theory to estimate the direction of departure (DOD) and direction of arrival (DOA), and the Doppler frequency can then be accurately estimated through the estimation of the DOD and DOA. By skipping target number estimation and the eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) of the data covariance matrix estimation and only requiring a one-dimensional search, the proposed method achieves low computational complexity. Furthermore, the proposed method is suitable for bistatic MIMO radar with an arbitrary transmitted and received geometrical configuration. The correction and efficiency of the proposed method are verified by computer simulation results. PMID:26694385

Multiple-Parameter Estimation Method Based on Spatio-Temporal 2-D Processing for Bistatic MIMO Radar.

PubMed

Yang, Shouguo; Li, Yong; Zhang, Kunhui; Tang, Weiping

2015-12-14

A novel spatio-temporal 2-dimensional (2-D) processing method that can jointly estimate the transmitting-receiving azimuth and Doppler frequency for bistatic multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar in the presence of spatial colored noise and an unknown number of targets is proposed. In the temporal domain, the cross-correlation of the matched filters' outputs for different time-delay sampling is used to eliminate the spatial colored noise. In the spatial domain, the proposed method uses a diagonal loading method and subspace theory to estimate the direction of departure (DOD) and direction of arrival (DOA), and the Doppler frequency can then be accurately estimated through the estimation of the DOD and DOA. By skipping target number estimation and the eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) of the data covariance matrix estimation and only requiring a one-dimensional search, the proposed method achieves low computational complexity. Furthermore, the proposed method is suitable for bistatic MIMO radar with an arbitrary transmitted and received geometrical configuration. The correction and efficiency of the proposed method are verified by computer simulation results.

Accurate seismic phase identification and arrival time picking of glacial icequakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G. A.; Doyle, S. H.; Dow, C.; Kulessa, B.; Hubbard, A.

2010-12-01

A catastrophic lake drainage event was monitored continuously using an array of 6, 4.5 Hz 3 component geophones in the Russell Glacier catchment, Western Greenland. Many thousands of events and arrival time phases (e.g., P- or S-wave) were recorded, often with events occurring simultaneously but at different locations. In addition, different styles of seismic events were identified from 'classical' tectonic earthquakes to tremors usually observed in volcanic regions. The presence of such a diverse and large dataset provides insight into the complex system of lake drainage. One of the most fundamental steps in seismology is the accurate identification of a seismic event and its associated arrival times. However, the collection of such a large and complex dataset makes the manual identification of a seismic event and picking of the arrival time phases time consuming with variable results. To overcome the issues of consistency and manpower, a number of different methods have been developed including short-term and long-term averages, spectrograms, wavelets, polarisation analyses, higher order statistics and auto-regressive techniques. Here we propose an automated procedure which establishes the phase type and accurately determines the arrival times. The procedure combines a number of different automated methods to achieve this, and is applied to the recently acquired lake drainage data. Accurate identification of events and their arrival time phases are the first steps in gaining a greater understanding of the extent of the deformation and the mechanism of such drainage events. A good knowledge of the propagation pathway of lake drainage meltwater through a glacier will have significant consequences for interpretation of glacial and ice sheet dynamics.

Lineage fusion in Galápagos giant tortoises.

PubMed

Garrick, Ryan C; Benavides, Edgar; Russello, Michael A; Hyseni, Chaz; Edwards, Danielle L; Gibbs, James P; Tapia, Washington; Ciofi, Claudio; Caccone, Adalgisa

2014-11-01

Although many classic radiations on islands are thought to be the result of repeated lineage splitting, the role of past fusion is rarely known because during these events, purebreds are rapidly replaced by a swarm of admixed individuals. Here, we capture lineage fusion in action in a Galápagos giant tortoise species, Chelonoidis becki, from Wolf Volcano (Isabela Island). The long generation time of Galápagos tortoises and dense sampling (841 individuals) of genetic and demographic data were integral in detecting and characterizing this phenomenon. In C. becki, we identified two genetically distinct, morphologically cryptic lineages. Historical reconstructions show that they colonized Wolf Volcano from Santiago Island in two temporally separated events, the first estimated to have occurred ~199 000 years ago. Following arrival of the second wave of colonists, both lineages coexisted for approximately ~53 000 years. Within that time, they began fusing back together, as microsatellite data reveal widespread introgressive hybridization. Interestingly, greater mate selectivity seems to be exhibited by purebred females of one of the lineages. Forward-in-time simulations predict rapid extinction of the early arriving lineage. This study provides a rare example of reticulate evolution in action and underscores the power of population genetics for understanding the past, present and future consequences of evolutionary phenomena associated with lineage fusion. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Five easy equations for patient flow through an emergency department.

PubMed

Madsen, Thomas Lill; Kofoed-Enevoldsen, Allan

2011-10-01

Queue models are effective tools for framing management decisions and Danish hospitals could benefit from awareness of such models. Currently, as emergency departments (ED) are under reorganization, we deem it timely to empirically investigate the applicability of the standard "M/M/1" queue model in order to document its relevance. We compared actual versus theoretical distributions of hourly patient flow from 27,000 patient cases seen at Frederiksberg Hospital's ED. Formulating equations for arrivals and capacity, we wrote and tested a five equation simulation model. The Poisson distribution fitted arrivals with an hour-of-the-day specific parameter. Treatment times exceeding 15 minutes were well-described by an exponential distribution. The ED can be modelled as a black box with an hourly capacity that can be estimated either as admissions per hour when the ED operates full hilt Poisson distribution or from the linear dependency of waiting times on queue number. The results show that our ED capacity is surprisingly constant despite variations in staffing. These findings led to the formulation of a model giving a compact framework for assessing the behaviour of the ED under different assumptions about opening hours, capacity and workload. The M/M/1 almost perfectly fits our. Thus modeling and simulations have contributed to the management process. not relevant. not relevant.

Lead-Time Bias and Interhospital Transfer after Injury: Trauma Center Admission Vital Signs Underpredict Mortality in Transferred Trauma Patients.

PubMed

Holena, Daniel N; Wiebe, Douglas J; Carr, Brendan G; Hsu, Jesse Y; Sperry, Jason L; Peitzman, Andrew B; Reilly, Patrick M

2017-03-01

Admission physiology predicts mortality after injury, but may be improved by resuscitation before transfer. This phenomenon, which has been termed lead-time bias, may lead to underprediction of mortality in transferred patients and inaccurate benchmarking in centers receiving large numbers of transfer patients. We sought to determine the impact of using vital signs on arrival at the referring center vs on arrival at the trauma center in mortality prediction models for transferred trauma patients. We performed a retrospective cohort study using a state-wide trauma registry including all patients age 16 years or older, with Abbreviated Injury Scale scores ≥ 3, admitted to level I and II trauma centers in Pennsylvania, from 2011 to 2014. The primary outcomes measure was the risk-adjusted association between mortality and interhospital transfer (IHT) when adjusting for physiology (as measured by Revised Trauma Score [RTS]) using the referring hospital arrival vital signs (model 1) compared with trauma center arrival vital signs (model 2). After adjusting for patient and injury factors, IHT was associated with reduced mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.85; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.93) using the RTS from trauma center admission, but with increased mortality (OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.27) using RTS from the referring hospital. The greater the number of transfer patients seen by a center, the greater the difference in center-level mortality predicted by the 2 models (β -0.044; 95% CI -0.044 to -0.0043; p ≤ 0.001). Trauma center vital signs underestimate mortality in transfer patients and may lead to incorrect estimates of expected mortality. Where possible, benchmarking efforts should use referring hospital vital signs to risk-adjust IHT patients. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determining prescription durations based on the parametric waiting time distribution.

PubMed

Støvring, Henrik; Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper

2016-12-01

The purpose of the study is to develop a method to estimate the duration of single prescriptions in pharmacoepidemiological studies when the single prescription duration is not available. We developed an estimation algorithm based on maximum likelihood estimation of a parametric two-component mixture model for the waiting time distribution (WTD). The distribution component for prevalent users estimates the forward recurrence density (FRD), which is related to the distribution of time between subsequent prescription redemptions, the inter-arrival density (IAD), for users in continued treatment. We exploited this to estimate percentiles of the IAD by inversion of the estimated FRD and defined the duration of a prescription as the time within which 80% of current users will have presented themselves again. Statistical properties were examined in simulation studies, and the method was applied to empirical data for four model drugs: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), warfarin, bendroflumethiazide, and levothyroxine. Simulation studies found negligible bias when the data-generating model for the IAD coincided with the FRD used in the WTD estimation (Log-Normal). When the IAD consisted of a mixture of two Log-Normal distributions, but was analyzed with a single Log-Normal distribution, relative bias did not exceed 9%. Using a Log-Normal FRD, we estimated prescription durations of 117, 91, 137, and 118 days for NSAIDs, warfarin, bendroflumethiazide, and levothyroxine, respectively. Similar results were found with a Weibull FRD. The algorithm allows valid estimation of single prescription durations, especially when the WTD reliably separates current users from incident users, and may replace ad-hoc decision rules in automated implementations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Investigation of low-cost ablative heat shield fabrication for space shuttles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, H. H.

1972-01-01

Improvements in the processes and design to reduce the manufacturing costs for low density ablative panels for the space shuttle are discussed. The areas that were studied included methods of loading honeycomb core, alternative reinforcement concepts, and the use of reusable subpanels. A review of previous studies on the fabrication of low-cost ablative panels and on permissible defects that do not affect thermal performance was conducted. Considerable differences in the quoted prices for ablative panels, even though the various contractors had reported similar fabrication times were discovered. How these cost differences arise from different estimating criteria and which estimating assumptions and other costs must be included in order to arrive at a realistic price are discussed.

Measurement of the Muon Production Depths at the Pierre Auger Observatory

DOE PAGES

Collica, Laura

2016-09-08

The muon content of extensive air showers is an observable sensitive to the primary composition and to the hadronic interaction properties. The Pierre Auger Observatory uses water-Cherenkov detectors to measure particle densities at the ground and therefore is sensitive to the muon content of air showers. We present here a method which allows us to estimate the muon production depths by exploiting the measurement of the muon arrival times at the ground recorded with the Surface Detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The analysis is performed in a large range of zenith angles, thanks to the capability of estimating and subtracting the electromagnetic component, and for energies betweenmore » $$10^{19.2}$$ and $$10^{20}$$ eV.« less

Time-to-contact estimation of accelerated stimuli is based on first-order information.

PubMed

Benguigui, Nicolas; Ripoll, Hubert; Broderick, Michael P

2003-12-01

The goal of this study was to test whether 1st-order information, which does not account for acceleration, is used (a) to estimate the time to contact (TTC) of an accelerated stimulus after the occlusion of a final part of its trajectory and (b) to indirectly intercept an accelerated stimulus with a thrown projectile. Both tasks require the production of an action on the basis of predictive information acquired before the arrival of the stimulus at the target and allow the experimenter to make quantitative predictions about the participants' use (or nonuse) of 1st-order information. The results show that participants do not use information about acceleration and that they commit errors that rely quantitatively on 1st-order information even when acceleration is psychophysically detectable. In the indirect interceptive task, action is planned about 200 ms before the initiation of the movement, at which time the 1st-order TTC attains a critical value. ((c) 2003 APA, all rights reserved)

Localization of short-range acoustic and seismic wideband sources: Algorithms and experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stafsudd, J. Z.; Asgari, S.; Hudson, R.; Yao, K.; Taciroglu, E.

2008-04-01

We consider the determination of the location (source localization) of a disturbance source which emits acoustic and/or seismic signals. We devise an enhanced approximate maximum-likelihood (AML) algorithm to process data collected at acoustic sensors (microphones) belonging to an array of, non-collocated but otherwise identical, sensors. The approximate maximum-likelihood algorithm exploits the time-delay-of-arrival of acoustic signals at different sensors, and yields the source location. For processing the seismic signals, we investigate two distinct algorithms, both of which process data collected at a single measurement station comprising a triaxial accelerometer, to determine direction-of-arrival. The direction-of-arrivals determined at each sensor station are then combined using a weighted least-squares approach for source localization. The first of the direction-of-arrival estimation algorithms is based on the spectral decomposition of the covariance matrix, while the second is based on surface wave analysis. Both of the seismic source localization algorithms have their roots in seismology; and covariance matrix analysis had been successfully employed in applications where the source and the sensors (array) are typically separated by planetary distances (i.e., hundreds to thousands of kilometers). Here, we focus on very-short distances (e.g., less than one hundred meters) instead, with an outlook to applications in multi-modal surveillance, including target detection, tracking, and zone intrusion. We demonstrate the utility of the aforementioned algorithms through a series of open-field tests wherein we successfully localize wideband acoustic and/or seismic sources. We also investigate a basic strategy for fusion of results yielded by acoustic and seismic arrays.

Enhancing micro-seismic P-phase arrival picking: EMD-cosine function-based denoising with an application to the AIC picker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Xueyi; Li, Xibing; Morales-Esteban, A.; Dong, Longjun

2018-03-01

Micro-seismic P-phase arrival picking is an elementary step into seismic event location, source mechanism analysis, and seismic tomography. However, a micro-seismic signal is often mixed with high frequency noises and power frequency noises (50 Hz), which could considerably reduce P-phase picking accuracy. To solve this problem, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)-cosine function denoising-based Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) picker (ECD-AIC picker) is proposed for picking the P-phase arrival time. Unlike traditional low pass filters which are ineffective when seismic data and noise bandwidths overlap, the EMD adaptively separates the seismic data and the noise into different Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). Furthermore, the EMD-cosine function-based denoising retains the P-phase arrival amplitude and phase spectrum more reliably than any traditional low pass filter. The ECD-AIC picker was tested on 1938 sets of micro-seismic waveforms randomly selected from the Institute of Mine Seismology (IMS) database of the Chinese Yongshaba mine. The results have shown that the EMD-cosine function denoising can effectively estimate high frequency and power frequency noises and can be easily adapted to perform on signals with different shapes and forms. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons show that the combined ECD-AIC picker provides better picking results than both the ED-AIC picker and the AIC picker, and the comparisons also show more reliable source localization results when the ECD-AIC picker is applied, thus showing the potential of this combined P-phase picking technique.

Extended reactance domain algorithms for DoA estimation onto an ESPAR antennas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harabi, F.; Akkar, S.; Gharsallah, A.

2016-07-01

Based on an extended reactance domain (RD) covariance matrix, this article proposes new alternatives for directions of arrival (DoAs) estimation of narrowband sources through an electronically steerable parasitic array radiator (ESPAR) antennas. Because of the centro symmetry of the classic ESPAR antennas, an unitary transformation is applied to the collected data that allow an important reduction in both computational cost and processing time and, also, an enhancement of the resolution capabilities of the proposed algorithms. Moreover, this article proposes a new approach for eigenvalues estimation through only some linear operations. The developed DoAs estimation algorithms based on this new approach has illustrated a good behaviour with less calculation cost and processing time as compared to other schemes based on the classic eigenvalues approach. The conducted simulations demonstrate that high-precision and high-resolution DoAs estimation can be reached especially in very closely sources situation and low sources power as compared to the RD-MUSIC algorithm and the RD-PM algorithm. The asymptotic behaviours of the proposed DoAs estimators are analysed in various scenarios and compared with the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB). The conducted simulations testify the high-resolution of the developed algorithms and prove the efficiently of the proposed approach.

Eavesdropping on the Arctic: Automated Bioacoustics Promise to Untangle Climate-Induced Shifts in Songbird Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, R.; Ellis, D.; Gough, L.; Chmura, H.; Sweet, S. K.; Boelman, N.; Krause, J.; Perez, J.; Wingfield, J.

2017-12-01

Climate change is altering the seasonality of environmental conditions and the phenology of vegetation, particularly at high northern latitudes. Yet changes in the phenology of wildlife that rely on northern ecosystems is significantly understudied. In much the same way that remote sensing enables global-scale observations of climate and vegetation, ground-based bioacoustic recording networks have the potential to vastly expand the spatial and temporal coverage of wildlife monitoring. However, the enormous datasets that autonomous recorders typically generate demand automated analyses that remain largely undeveloped. To unleash the potential for global-scale bioacoustic monitoring, we developed automated signal processing and machine learning algorithms to generate seasonal times series of breeding songbird vocal activity from 1200 hours of landscape-level recordings in northern Alaska. The calendar dates on which songbird communities arrived to their breeding grounds in five springs (2010-2014) were automatically extracted from the time series, and agreed within 3 days to those determined via traditional avian surveys (RMSE = 1.88 - 3.02). Relative to other years, our bioacoustic approach identified a 1-9 day delay in the arrival of long distance migratory songbird communities to their breeding grounds in 2013 - a spring characterized by persistent snow cover and cold temperatures. Differences in arrival timing among sites were strongly related to the date on which the landscape surrounding the microphone became snow-free, particularly in the supervised approach (supervised: R2 = 0.59, p < 0.01 and unsupervised: R2 = 0.13, p = 0.15). We found daily variation in vocal activity was heavily influenced by environmental conditions - primarily snow cover and temperature, and especially prior to egg laying (R2 = 0.61 +/- 0.07 vs. 0.23 +/- 0.07, p < 0.1) - suggesting that extending bioacoustics analysis beyond arrival date estimation requires coupling recordings with meteorological networks and information on community breeding phenology. The success of our novel analytical approach demonstrates that shifts in avian migratory behavior could be detected autonomously, which would provide the coverage necessary to determine and project the influence of climate on rapidly changing ecosystems.

First photon detection in time-resolved transillumination imaging: a theoretical evaluation.

PubMed

Behin-Ain, S; van Doorn, T; Patterson, J R

2004-09-07

First photon detection, as a special case of time-resolved transillumination imaging, is studied through the derivation of the temporal probability density function (pdf) for the first arriving photon. The pdf for different laser intensities, media and second and later arriving photons were generated. The arrival time of the first detected photon reduced as the laser power increased and also when the scattering and absorption coefficients decreased. The pdf for an imbedded totally absorbing 3 mm inhomogeneity may be distinguished from the pdf of a homogeneous turbid medium similar to that of human breast in dimensions and optical properties.

Locating Microseism Sources Using Spurious Arrivals in Intercontinental Noise Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retailleau, Lise; Boué, Pierre; Stehly, Laurent; Campillo, Michel

2017-10-01

The accuracy of Green's functions retrieved from seismic noise correlations in the microseism frequency band is limited by the uneven distribution of microseism sources at the surface of the Earth. As a result, correlation functions are often biased as compared to the expected Green's functions, and they can include spurious arrivals. These spurious arrivals are seismic arrivals that are visible on the correlation and do not belong to the theoretical impulse response. In this article, we propose to use Rayleigh wave spurious arrivals detected on correlation functions computed between European and United States seismic stations to locate microseism sources in the Atlantic Ocean. We perform a slant stack on a time distance gather of correlations obtained from an array of stations that comprises a regional deployment and a distant station. The arrival times and the apparent slowness of the spurious arrivals lead to the location of their source, which is obtained through a grid search procedure. We discuss improvements in the location through this methodology as compared to classical back projection of microseism energy. This method is interesting because it only requires an array and a distant station on each side of an ocean, conditions that can be met relatively easily.

Only Above Barrier Energy Components Contribute to Barrier Traversal Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galapon, Eric A.

2012-04-01

A time of arrival operator across a square potential barrier is constructed. The expectation value of the barrier time of arrival operator for a sufficiently localized incident wave packet is compared with the expectation value of the free particle time of arrival operator for the same wave packet. The comparison yields an expression for the expected traversal time across the barrier. It is shown that only the above barrier components of the momentum distribution of the incident wave packet contribute to the barrier traversal time, implying that below the barrier components are transmitted without delay. This is consistent with the recent experiment in attosecond ionization in helium indicating that there is no real tunneling delay time [P. Eckle , Science 322, 1525 (2008)SCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.1163439].

The effect of handover location on trauma theatre start time: An estimated cost saving of £131 000 per year.

PubMed

Nahas, Sam; Ali, Adam; Majid, Kiran; Joseph, Roshan; Huber, Chris; Babu, Victor

2018-02-08

The National Health Service was estimated to be in £2.45 billion deficit in 2015 to 2016. Trauma theatre utilization and efficiency has never been so important as it is estimated to cost £15/minute. Structured questionnaires were given to 23 members of staff at our Trust who are actively involved in the organization or delivery of orthopaedic trauma lists at least once per week. This was used to identify key factors that may improve theatre efficiency. Following focus group evaluation, the location of the preoperative theatre meeting was changed, with all staff involved being required to attend this. Our primary outcome measure was mean theatre start time (time of arrival in the anaesthetic room) during the 1 month immediately preceding the change and the month following the change. Theatre start time was improved on average 24 minutes (1 month premeeting and postmeeting change). This equates to a saving of £360 per day, or £131 040 per year. Changing the trauma meeting location to a venue adjacent to the trauma theatre can improve theatre start times, theatre efficiency, and therefore result in significant cost savings. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Benefits Assessment for Single-Airport Tactical Runway Configuration Management Tool (TRCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa; Phojanamonogkolkij, Nipa; Lohr, Gary W.

2015-01-01

The System-Oriented Runway Management (SORM) concept was developed as part of the Airspace Systems Program (ASP) Concepts and Technology Development (CTD) Project, and is composed of two basic capabilities: Runway Configuration Management (RCM), and Combined Arrival/Departure Runway Scheduling (CADRS). RCM is the process of designating active runways, monitoring the active runway configuration for suitability given existing factors, and predicting future configuration changes; CADRS is the process of distributing arrivals and departures across active runways based on local airport and National Airspace System (NAS) goals. The central component in the SORM concept is a tool for taking into account all the various factors and producing a recommendation for what would be the optimal runway configuration, runway use strategy, and aircraft sequence, considering as many of the relevant factors required in making this type of decision, and user preferences, if feasible. Three separate tools were initially envisioned for this research area, corresponding to the time scale in which they would operate: Strategic RCM (SRCM), with a planning horizon on the order of several hours, Tactical RCM (TRCM), with a planning horizon on the order of 90 minutes, and CADRS, with a planning horizon on the order of 15-30 minutes[1]. Algorithm development was initiated in all three of these areas, but the most fully developed to date is the TRCM algorithm. Earlier studies took a high-level approach to benefits, estimating aggregate benefits across most of the major airports in the National Airspace Systems (NAS), for both RCM and CADRS [2]. Other studies estimated the benefit of RCM and CADRS using various methods of re-sequencing arrivals to reduce delays3,4, or better balancing of arrival fixes5,6. Additional studies looked at different methods for performing the optimization involved in selecting the best Runway Configuration Plan (RCP) to use7-10. Most of these previous studies were high-level or generic in nature (not focusing on specific airports), and benefits were aggregated for the entire NAS, with relatively low fidelity simulation of SORM functions and aircraft trajectories. For SORM research, a more detailed benefits assessment of RCM and CADRS for specific airports or metroplexes is needed.

Investigation of Back-Projection Uncertainties with M6 Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, W.; Shearer, P. M.

2017-12-01

We investigate possible biasing effects of inaccurate timing corrections on teleseismic P-wave back-projection imaging of large earthquake ruptures. These errors occur because empirically-estimated time shifts based on aligning P-wave first arrivals are exact only at the hypocenter and provide approximate corrections for other parts of the rupture. Using the Japan subduction zone as a test region, we analyze 46 M6-7 earthquakes over a ten-year period, including many aftershocks of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake, performing waveform cross-correlation of their initial P-wave arrivals to obtain hypocenter timing corrections to global seismic stations. We then compare back-projection images for each earthquake using its own timing corrections with those obtained using the time corrections for other earthquakes. This provides a measure of how well sub-events can be resolved with back-projection of a large rupture as a function of distance from the hypocenter. Our results show that back-projection is generally very robust and that sub-event location errors average about 20 km across the entire study region ( 700 km). The back-projection coherence loss and location errors do not noticeably converge to zero even when the event pairs are very close (<20 km). This indicates that most of the timing differences are due to 3D structure close to each of the hypocenter regions, which limits the effectiveness of attempts to refine back-projection images using aftershock calibration, at least in this region.

Timelines in the management of adrenal crisis - targets, limits and reality.

PubMed

Hahner, Stefanie; Hemmelmann, Nina; Quinkler, Marcus; Beuschlein, Felix; Spinnler, Christina; Allolio, Bruno

2015-04-01

To evaluate current management timelines in adrenal crisis (AC) and to establish time targets and time limits for emergency treatment. Patients from a prospective study who had reported an AC (n = 46) were contacted and asked about management of their AC. A survey among 24 European endocrinologists collected expert recommendations concerning time targets and time limits for contact-arrival time of emergency health professionals and presentation of emergency card-glucocorticoid (GC) injection time. Median time targets and time limits regarded by experts as adequate for contact-arrival time were 45 and 90 min, respectively, and for card-injection time 15 and 30 min, respectively. Thirty-seven of 46 patients could be interviewed. All patients were equipped with an emergency card but only 23 (62%) with an emergency kit. Seven patients (19%) were trained in GC self-injection. The median time interval between contacting a health professional and arrival was 20 min (range 2-2880 min); ≤45 min: n = 32 (86%), <90 min: n = 34 (92%). The median time interval between arrival and administration of GC was 30 min (range 2-2400 min); ≤15 min: n = 17 (46%), ≤30 min: n = 20 (54%). While the time between contacting health professionals and their arrival was within the limits set by experts, initiation of GC administration was delayed in 46% of patients. Thus, improved management of AC needs to focus on shortening the presentation of card-injection time. Given the current reality in the management of AC, promotion of self-injection of GC (s.c. or i.m.) is warranted. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Wideband Direction of Arrival Estimation in the Presence of Unknown Mutual Coupling

PubMed Central

Li, Weixing; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Jianzhi; Guo, Rui; Chen, Zengping

2017-01-01

This paper investigates a subarray based algorithm for direction of arrival (DOA) estimation of wideband uniform linear array (ULA), under the presence of frequency-dependent mutual coupling effects. Based on the Toeplitz structure of mutual coupling matrices, the whole array is divided into the middle subarray and the auxiliary subarray. Then two-sided correlation transformation is applied to the correlation matrix of the middle subarray instead of the whole array. In this way, the mutual coupling effects can be eliminated. Finally, the multiple signal classification (MUSIC) method is utilized to derive the DOAs. For the condition when the blind angles exist, we refine DOA estimation by using a simple approach based on the frequency-dependent mutual coupling matrixes (MCMs). The proposed method can achieve high estimation accuracy without any calibration sources. It has a low computational complexity because iterative processing is not required. Simulation results validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed algorithm. PMID:28178177

On the angular error of intensity vector based direction of arrival estimation in reverberant sound fields.

PubMed

Levin, Dovid; Habets, Emanuël A P; Gannot, Sharon

2010-10-01

An acoustic vector sensor provides measurements of both the pressure and particle velocity of a sound field in which it is placed. These measurements are vectorial in nature and can be used for the purpose of source localization. A straightforward approach towards determining the direction of arrival (DOA) utilizes the acoustic intensity vector, which is the product of pressure and particle velocity. The accuracy of an intensity vector based DOA estimator in the presence of noise has been analyzed previously. In this paper, the effects of reverberation upon the accuracy of such a DOA estimator are examined. It is shown that particular realizations of reverberation differ from an ideal isotropically diffuse field, and induce an estimation bias which is dependent upon the room impulse responses (RIRs). The limited knowledge available pertaining the RIRs is expressed statistically by employing the diffuse qualities of reverberation to extend Polack's statistical RIR model. Expressions for evaluating the typical bias magnitude as well as its probability distribution are derived.

Investigating surface water-well interaction using stable isotope ratios of water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, R.J.; Coplen, T.B.; Haas, N.L.; Saad, D.A.; Borchardt, M. A.

2005-01-01

Because surface water can be a source of undesirable water quality in a drinking water well, an understanding of the amount of surface water and its travel time to the well is needed to assess a well's vulnerability. Stable isotope ratios of oxygen in river water at the City of La Crosse, Wisconsin, show peak-to-peak seasonal variation greater than 4??? in 2001 and 2002. This seasonal signal was identified in 7 of 13 city municipal wells, indicating that these 7 wells have appreciable surface water contributions and are potentially vulnerable to contaminants in the surface water. When looking at wells with more than 6 sampling events, a larger variation in ??18O compositions correlated with a larger fraction of surface water, suggesting that samples collected for oxygen isotopic composition over time may be useful for identifying the vulnerability to surface water influence even if a local meteoric water line is not available. A time series of ??18O from one of the municipal wells and from a piezometer located between the river and the municipal well showed that the travel time of flood water to the municipal well was approximately 2 months; non-flood arrival times were on the order of 9 months. Four independent methods were also used to assess time of travel. Three methods (groundwater temperature arrival times at the intermediate piezometer, virus-culture results, and particle tracking using a numerical groundwater-flow model) yielded flood and non-flood travel times of less than 1 year for this site. Age dating of one groundwater sample using 3H-3He methods estimated an age longer than 1 year, but was likely confounded by deviations from piston flow as noted by others. Chlorofluorocarbons and SF6 analyses were not useful at this site due to degradation and contamination, respectively. This work illustrates the utility of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of water to determine the contribution and travel time of surface water in groundwater, and demonstrates the importance of using multiple methods to improve estimates for time of travel of 1 year or less. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

3D positioning scheme exploiting nano-scale IR-UWB orthogonal pulses.

PubMed

Kim, Nammoon; Kim, Youngok

2011-10-04

In these days, the development of positioning technology for realizing ubiquitous environments has become one of the most important issues. The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a well-known positioning scheme, but it is not suitable for positioning in in-door/building environments because it is difficult to maintain line-of-sight condition between satellites and a GPS receiver. To such problem, various positioning methods such as RFID, WLAN, ZigBee, and Bluetooth have been developed for indoor positioning scheme. However, the majority of positioning schemes are focused on the two-dimension positioning even though three-dimension (3D) positioning information is more useful especially in indoor applications, such as smart space, U-health service, context aware service, etc. In this paper, a 3D positioning system based on mutually orthogonal nano-scale impulse radio ultra-wideband (IR-UWB) signals and cross array antenna is proposed. The proposed scheme uses nano-scale IR-UWB signals providing fine time resolution and high-resolution multiple signal specification algorithm for the time-of-arrival and the angle-of-arrival estimation. The performance is evaluated over various IEEE 802.15.4a channel models, and simulation results show the effectiveness of proposed scheme.

Population density and racial differences in the performance of emergency medical services.

PubMed

David, Guy; Harrington, Scott E

2010-07-01

This paper analyzes the existence and scope of possible racial differences/disparities in the provision of emergency medical services (EMS) response capability (time from dispatch to arrival at the scene and level of training of the responding team) using data on approximately 120,000 cardiac incidents in the state of Mississippi during 1995-2004. The conceptual framework and empirical analysis focus on the likely effects of population density on the efficient production of EMS as a local public good subject to congestion, and on the need to control adequately for population density to avoid bias in testing for racial differences. Models that control for aggregate population density at the county-level indicate "reverse" disparities: faster estimated response times for African-Americans than for whites. When a refined county-level measure of population density is used that incorporates differences in African-American and white population density by Census tract, the reverse disparity in response times disappears. There also is little or no evidence of race-related differences in the certification level of EMS responders. However, there is evidence that, controlling for response time, African-Americans on average were significantly more likely to be deceased than whites upon EMS arrival at the scene. The overall results are germane to the debate over the scope of conditioning variables that should be included when testing for racial disparities in health care.

Spring-migration ecology of Northern Pintails in south-central Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, A.T.; Krapu, G.L.; Cox, R.R.; Davis, B.E.

2011-01-01

Spring-migration ecology of staging Northern Pintails, Anas acuta, was investigated in south-central Nebraska, USA. Habitat associations, local movements, settling patterns, arrival dates, residency times and survival were estimated from 71 radiomarked pintails during spring 2001, 2003 and 2004, and diet determined from 130 females collected during spring 1998 and 1999. Seventy-two percent of pintail diurnal locations were in palustrine wetlands, 7% in riverine wetlands, 3% in lacustrine wetlands, 6% in municipal sewage lagoons and irrigation reuse pits and 10.5% in croplands. Emergent wetlands with hemi-marsh conditions were used diurnally more often than wetlands with either open or closed vegetation structures. Evening foraging flights averaged 4.3 km (SE = 0.6) and 72% were to cornfields. In accord with these findings, 87% of 93 pintails collected during spring 1998 and 1999 returning to evening roosts consumed corn, which represented 84% dry mass of all foods. Pintails collected on non-cropped wetlands ingested invertebrates and seeds from wetland plants more frequently than birds returning to roost. Radiomarked pintails arrived in Nebraska on 7 March 2003 and 18 February 2004; average arrival date was six days earlier during 2004 compared to 2003. Residency time for individuals varied greatly (1-40 days) yet yearly means were similar and averaged 9.5 days within the region. No mortality was detected for 71 birds monitored over 829 exposure days. Conservation planners linking population dynamics and habitat conditions at spring-staging areas need to focus on pintail body condition during spring and its connection with reproductive success and survival during the breeding season.

Spring-migration ecology of Northern Pintails in south-central Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, Aaron T.; Krapu, Gary L.; Cox, Robert R.; Davis, Bruce E.

2011-01-01

Spring-migration ecology of staging Northern Pintails, Anas acuta, was investigated in south-central Nebraska, USA. Habitat associations, local movements, settling patterns, arrival dates, residency times and survival were estimated from 71 radiomarked pintails during spring 2001, 2003 and 2004, and diet determined from 130 females collected during spring 1998 and 1999. Seventy-two percent of pintail diurnal locations were in palustrine wetlands, 7% in riverine wetlands, 3% in lacustrine wetlands, 6% in municipal sewage lagoons and irrigation reuse pits and 10.5% in croplands. Emergent wetlands with hemi-marsh conditions were used diurnally more often than wetlands with either open or closed vegetation structures. Evening foraging flights averaged 4.3 km (SE = 0.6) and 72% were to cornfields. In accord with these findings, 87% of 93 pintails collected during spring 1998 and 1999 returning to evening roosts consumed corn, which represented 84% dry mass of all foods. Pintails collected on non-cropped wetlands ingested invertebrates and seeds from wetland plants more frequently than birds returning to roost. Radiomarked pintails arrived in Nebraska on 7 March 2003 and 18 February 2004; average arrival date was six days earlier during 2004 compared to 2003. Residency time for individuals varied greatly (1–40 days) yet yearly means were similar and averaged 9.5 days within the region. No mortality was detected for 71 birds monitored over 829 exposure days. Conservation planners linking population dynamics and habitat conditions at spring-staging areas need to focus on pintail body condition during spring and its connection with reproductive success and survival during the breeding season.

Interval Management Display Design Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxley, Brian T.; Beyer, Timothy M.; Cooke, Stuart D.; Grant, Karlus A.

2014-01-01

In 2012, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) estimated that U.S. commercial air carriers moved 736.7 million passengers over 822.3 billion revenue-passenger miles. The FAA also forecasts, in that same report, an average annual increase in passenger traffic of 2.2 percent per year for the next 20 years, which approximates to one-and-a-half times the number of today's aircraft operations and passengers by the year 2033. If airspace capacity and throughput remain unchanged, then flight delays will increase, particularly at those airports already operating near or at capacity. Therefore it is critical to create new and improved technologies, communications, and procedures to be used by air traffic controllers and pilots. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the FAA, and the aviation industry are working together to improve the efficiency of the National Airspace System and the cost to operate in it in several ways, one of which is through the creation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). NextGen is intended to provide airspace users with more precise information about traffic, routing, and weather, as well as improve the control mechanisms within the air traffic system. NASA's Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-1 (ATD-1) Project is designed to contribute to the goals of NextGen, and accomplishes this by integrating three NASA technologies to enable fuel-efficient arrival operations into high-density airports. The three NASA technologies and procedures combined in the ATD-1 concept are advanced arrival scheduling, controller decision support tools, and aircraft avionics to enable multiple time deconflicted and fuel efficient arrival streams in high-density terminal airspace.