Spread spectrum time-resolved diffuse optical measurement system for enhanced sensitivity in detecting human brain activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Kalpesh; Hasnain, Ali; Zhou, Xiaowei; Luo, Jianwen; Penney, Trevor B.; Chen, Nanguang

2017-04-01

Diffuse optical spectroscopy (DOS) and imaging methods have been widely applied to noninvasive detection of brain activity. We have designed and implemented a low cost, portable, real-time one-channel time-resolved DOS system for neuroscience studies. Phantom experiments were carried out to test the performance of the system. We further conducted preliminary human experiments and demonstrated that enhanced sensitivity in detecting neural activity in the cortex could be achieved by the use of late arriving photons.

Signal restoration through deconvolution applied to deep mantle seismic probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefan, W.; Garnero, E.; Renaut, R. A.

2006-12-01

We present a method of signal restoration to improve the signal-to-noise ratio, sharpen seismic arrival onset, and act as an empirical source deconvolution of specific seismic arrivals. Observed time-series gi are modelled as a convolution of a simpler time-series fi, and an invariant point spread function (PSF) h that attempts to account for the earthquake source process. The method is used on the shear wave time window containing SKS and S, whereby using a Gaussian PSF produces more impulsive, narrower, signals in the wave train. The resulting restored time-series facilitates more accurate and objective relative traveltime estimation of the individual seismic arrivals. We demonstrate the accuracy of the reconstruction method on synthetic seismograms generated by the reflectivity method. Clean and sharp reconstructions are obtained with real data, even for signals with relatively high noise content. Reconstructed signals are simpler, more impulsive, and narrower, which allows highlighting of some details of arrivals that are not readily apparent in raw waveforms. In particular, phases nearly coincident in time can be separately identified after processing. This is demonstrated for two seismic wave pairs used to probe deep mantle and core-mantle boundary structure: (1) the Sab and Scd arrivals, which travel above and within, respectively, a 200-300-km-thick, higher than average shear wave velocity layer at the base of the mantle, observable in the 88-92 deg epicentral distance range and (2) SKS and SPdiff KS, which are core waves with the latter having short arcs of P-wave diffraction, and are nearly identical in timing near 108-110 deg in distance. A Java/Matlab algorithm was developed for the signal restoration, which can be downloaded from the authors web page, along with example data and synthetic seismograms.

VLF long-range lightning location using the arrival time difference technique (ATD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ierkic, H. Mario

1996-01-01

A new network of VLF receiving systems is currently being developed in the USA to support NASA's Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). The new network will be deployed in the east coast of the US, including Puerto Rico, and will be operational in late 1995. The system should give affordable, near real-time, accurate lightning locating capabilities at long ranges and with extended coverage. It is based on the Arrival Time Difference (ATD) method of Lee (1986; 1990). The ATD technique is based on the estimation of the time of arrival of sferics detected over an 18 kHz bandwith. The ground system results will be compared and complemented with satellite optical measurements gathered with the already operational Optical Transient Detector (OTD) instrument and in due course with its successor the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning observations are important to understand atmospheric electrification phenomena, discharge processes, associated phenomena on earth (e.g. whistlers, explosive Spread-F) and other planets. In addition, lightning is a conspicuous indicator of atmospheric activity whose potential is just beginning to be recognized and utilized. On more prosaic grounds, lightning observations are important for protection of life, property and services.

Virtual Team Governance: Addressing the Governance Mechanisms and Virtual Team Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Yihong; Bai, Yu; Liu, Ziheng

As technology has improved and collaborative software has been developed, virtual teams with geographically dispersed members spread across diverse physical locations have become increasingly prominent. Virtual team is supported by advancing communication technologies, which makes virtual teams able to largely transcend time and space. Virtual teams have changed the corporate landscape, which are more complex and dynamic than traditional teams since the members of virtual teams are spread on diverse geographical locations and their roles in the virtual team are different. Therefore, how to realize good governance of virtual team and arrive at good virtual team performance is becoming critical and challenging. Good virtual team governance is essential for a high-performance virtual team. This paper explores the performance and the governance mechanism of virtual team. It establishes a model to explain the relationship between the performance and the governance mechanisms in virtual teams. This paper is focusing on managing virtual teams. It aims to find the strategies to help business organizations to improve the performance of their virtual teams and arrive at the objectives of good virtual team management.

The radio power reflected from rough and undulating ionospheric surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehead, J. D.; From, W. R.; Smith, L. G.

1984-08-01

It is shown for both rough and undulating surfaces that the mean radio power reflected by the ionosphere averaged over a sufficiently long time is exactly the same as for a smooth flat surface at the same height provided the sounder is equally sensitive for echoes from all directions. When making radio wave absorption measurements under spread conditions the total integrated power over the whole time the direct echoes are being received must be used but the distance attenuation factor must be calculated from the time of arrival of the first echo.

Ecological risk assessment of Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) for the Great Lakes Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolar, Cynthia S.; Cudmore, Becky

2017-01-01

Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) is an herbivorous, freshwater fish that was first introduced in the United States in the early 1960s for use in biological control of aquatic vegetation. It has since escaped and dispersed through the Mississippi River basin towards the Great Lakes. To characterize the risk of Grass Carp to the Great Lakes basin, a binational ecological risk assessment of Grass Carp was conducted.This risk assessment covered both triploid (sterile) and diploid (fertile) Grass Carp and assessed the likelihood of arrival, survival, establishment, and spread, and the magnitude of the ecological consequences within 5, 10, 20 and 50 years from 2014 (i.e., the baseline year) to the connected Great Lakes basin (defined as the Great Lakes basin and its tributaries to the first impassable barrier; risk was assessed based on current climate conditions and at the individual lake scale but does not address a finer geographical scale (e.g., bay or sub-region).For triploid Grass Carp, the probability of occurrence (likelihood of arrival, survival, and spread) was assessed, and for diploid Grass Carp the probability of introduction (likelihood of arrival, survival, establishment and spread) was assessed.

A Spread-Spectrum SQUID Multiplexer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irwin, K. D.; Chaudhuri, S.; Cho, H.-M.; Dawson, C.; Kuenstner, S.; Li, D.; Titus, C. J.; Young, B. A.

2018-06-01

The transition-edge sensor (TES) is a mature, high-resolution x-ray spectrometer technology that provides a much higher efficiency than dispersive spectrometers such as gratings and crystal spectrometers. As larger arrays are developed, time-division multiplexing schemes operating at MHz frequencies are being replaced by microwave SQUID multiplexers using frequency-division multiplexing at GHz frequencies. However, the multiplexing factor achievable with microwave SQUIDs is limited by the high slew rate on the leading edge of x-ray pulses. In this paper, we propose a new multiplexing scheme for high-slew-rate TES x-ray calorimeters: the spread-spectrum SQUID multiplexer, which has the potential to enable higher multiplexing factors, especially in applications with lower photon-arrival rates.

Modeling the potential of different countries for pandemic spread over the global air network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhe; Lv, Baolei; Xu, Bing

2017-04-01

Air network plays an important role in the spread of global epidemics due to its superior speed and range. Understanding the disease transmission pattern via network is the foundation for the prevention and control of future pandemics. In this study, we measured the potential of different countries for the pandemic spread by using a disease transmission model which integrated inter-country air traffic flow and geographic distance. The model was verified on the spread pattern of 2003 SARS, 2009 H1N1 influenza and 2014 Ebola by setting starting point at China, Mexico and Guinea respectively. Results showed that the model well reproduced the spread direction during the early stage as the time course were in good agreement with the reported arrival dates. Then the model was used to simulate the potential risk of each country in spreading the disease as the origin country. We observed that countries in North America, Europe and East Asia had the highest risk of transmission considering their high degree in the air network. We also found that for most starting countries, United States, United Kingdom, Germany and France would become the most-important spreading cores. Compared with empirical Susceptible-Infectious-Recover model, this model could respond much faster to the disease spread with no need for empirical disease transmission parameters.

Review Essay: Moving beyond Global Encounters toward Global Reciprocity: Christian Education in East Asian Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Hyun-Sook

2015-01-01

Christianity as a world religion was propagated from Europe and North America to Africa and Asia. Global Christianity spread to East Asia when Robert Morrison (1782-1843) arrived in Canton, China in 1807, and later in the late 19th-century Protestant missionaries from North America arrived in Japan and Korea. This Christianity experienced a modern…

Modelling the Arrival of Invasive Organisms via the International Marine Shipping Network: A Khapra Beetle Study

PubMed Central

Paini, Dean R.; Yemshanov, Denys

2012-01-01

Species can sometimes spread significant distances beyond their natural dispersal ability by anthropogenic means. International shipping routes and the transport of shipping containers, in particular are a commonly recognised pathway for the introduction of invasive species. Species can gain access to a shipping container and remain inside, hidden and undetected for long periods. Currently, government biosecurity agencies charged with intercepting and removing these invasive species when they arrive to a county’s border only assess the most immediate point of loading in evaluating a shipping container’s risk profile. However, an invasive species could have infested a container previous to this point and travelled undetected before arriving at the border. To assess arrival risk for an invasive species requires analysing the international shipping network in order to identify the most likely source countries and the domestic ports of entry where the species is likely to arrive. We analysed an international shipping network and generated pathway simulations using a first-order Markov chain model to identify possible source ports and countries for the arrival of Khapra beetle (Trogoderma granarium) to Australia. We found Kaohsiung (Taiwan) and Busan (Republic of Korea) to be the most likely sources for Khapra beetle arrival, while the port of Melbourne was the most likely point of entry to Australia. Sensitivity analysis revealed significant stability in the rankings of foreign and Australian ports. This methodology provides a reliable modelling tool to identify and rank possible sources for an invasive species that could arrive at some time in the future. Such model outputs can be used by biosecurity agencies concerned with inspecting incoming shipping containers and wishing to optimise their inspection protocols. PMID:22970258

Introduced pathogens follow the invasion front of a spreading alien host

Treesearch

Ann E. Hajek; Patrick C. Tobin

2011-01-01

When an invasive species first colonizes an area, there is an interval before any host-specific natural enemies arrive at the new location. Population densities of newly invading species are low, and the spatial and temporal interactions between spreading invasive species and specific natural enemies that follow are poorly understood. We measured infection rates of two...

High resolution distributed time-to-digital converter (TDC) in a White Rabbit network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Weibin; Gong, Guanghua; Du, Qiang; Li, Hongming; Li, Jianmin

2014-02-01

The Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory (LHAASO) project consists of a complex detector array with over 6000 detector nodes spreading over 1.2 km2 areas. The arrival times of shower particles are captured by time-to-digital converters (TDCs) in the detectors' frontend electronics, the arrival direction of the high energy cosmic ray are then to be reconstructed from the space-time information of all detector nodes. To guarantee the angular resolution of 0.5°, a time synchronization of 500 ps (RMS) accuracy and 100 ps precision must be achieved among all TDC nodes. A technology enhancing Gigabit Ethernet, called the White Rabbit (WR), has shown the capability of delivering sub-nanosecond accuracy and picoseconds precision of synchronization over the standard data packet transfer. In this paper we demonstrate a distributed TDC prototype system combining the FPGA based TDC and the WR technology. With the time synchronization and data transfer services from a compact WR node, separate FPGA-TDC nodes can be combined to provide uniform time measurement information for correlated events. The design detail and test performance will be described in the paper.

Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America

PubMed Central

Phillips, Ben L.; Puschendorf, Robert

2013-01-01

The virulence of a pathogen can vary strongly through time. While cyclical variation in virulence is regularly observed, directional shifts in virulence are less commonly observed and are typically associated with decreasing virulence of biological control agents through coevolution. It is increasingly appreciated, however, that spatial effects can lead to evolutionary trajectories that differ from standard expectations. One such possibility is that, as a pathogen spreads through a naive host population, its virulence increases on the invasion front. In Central America, there is compelling evidence for the recent spread of pathogenic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and for its strong impact on amphibian populations. Here, we re-examine data on Bd prevalence and amphibian population decline across 13 sites from southern Mexico through Central America, and show that, in the initial phases of the Bd invasion, amphibian population decline lagged approximately 9 years behind the arrival of the pathogen, but that this lag diminished markedly over time. In total, our analysis suggests an increase in Bd virulence as it spread southwards, a pattern consistent with rapid evolution of increased virulence on Bd's invading front. The impact of Bd on amphibians might therefore be driven by rapid evolution in addition to more proximate environmental drivers. PMID:23843393

Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America.

PubMed

Phillips, Ben L; Puschendorf, Robert

2013-09-07

The virulence of a pathogen can vary strongly through time. While cyclical variation in virulence is regularly observed, directional shifts in virulence are less commonly observed and are typically associated with decreasing virulence of biological control agents through coevolution. It is increasingly appreciated, however, that spatial effects can lead to evolutionary trajectories that differ from standard expectations. One such possibility is that, as a pathogen spreads through a naive host population, its virulence increases on the invasion front. In Central America, there is compelling evidence for the recent spread of pathogenic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and for its strong impact on amphibian populations. Here, we re-examine data on Bd prevalence and amphibian population decline across 13 sites from southern Mexico through Central America, and show that, in the initial phases of the Bd invasion, amphibian population decline lagged approximately 9 years behind the arrival of the pathogen, but that this lag diminished markedly over time. In total, our analysis suggests an increase in Bd virulence as it spread southwards, a pattern consistent with rapid evolution of increased virulence on Bd's invading front. The impact of Bd on amphibians might therefore be driven by rapid evolution in addition to more proximate environmental drivers.

Biosecurity interceptions of an invasive lizard: origin of stowaways and human-assisted spread within New Zealand

PubMed Central

Chapple, David G; Whitaker, Anthony H; Chapple, Stephanie N J; Miller, Kimberly A; Thompson, Michael B

2013-01-01

Globalization, and the resultant movement of animals beyond their native range, creates challenges for biosecurity agencies. Limited records of unintentional introductions inhibit our understanding of the trade pathways, transport vectors and mechanisms through which hitchhiker organisms are spread as stowaways. Here, we adopt a phylogeographic approach to determine the source and human-mediated dispersal pathways of New Zealand's only invasive lizard, the delicate skink (Lampropholis delicata), intercepted by biosecurity agencies in New Zealand. Biosecurity agencies correctly predicted the source region of 77% of stowaways, which were usually solitary adults, arriving via air or sea pathways during the cooler months, evading initial border checks and alive when detected. New arrivals from Australia comprised 16% of detections originating from the region between Brisbane and Sydney. Our analyses indicate human-mediated dispersal has driven the post-border spread of L. delicata within New Zealand. Propagule pressure was substantially greater for L. delicata compared with the noninvasive, congeneric Lampropholis guichenoti. Our results highlight the transport pathways, spread mechanisms, and stowaway characteristics of Lampropholis lizards entering New Zealand, which could enhance current biosecurity protocols and prevent the establishment of additional lizard species. PMID:23467589

Binational ecological risk assessment of bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) for the Great Lakes Basin.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cudmore, Becky; Mandrak, Nicholas E.; Dettmers, John M.; Chapman, Duane C.; Kolar, Cynthia S.

2012-01-01

Bigheaded carps (Bighead and Silver carps) are considered a potential threat to the Great Lakes basin. A binational ecological risk assessment was conducted to provide scientifically defensible advice for managers and decision-makers in Canada and the United States. This risk assessment looked at the likelihood of arrival, survival, establishment, and spread of bigheaded carps to obtain an overall probability of introduction. Arrival routes assessed were physical connections and human-mediated releases. The risk assessment ranked physical connections (specifically the Chicago Area Waterway System) as the most likely route for arrival into the Great Lakes basin. Results of the risk assessment show that there is enough food and habitat for bigheaded carp survival in the Great Lakes, especially in Lake Erie and productive embayments in the other lakes. Analyses of tributaries around the Canadian Great Lakes and the American waters of Lake Erie indicate that there are many suitable tributaries for bigheaded carp spawning. Should bigheaded carps establish in the Great Lakes, their spread would not likely be limited and several ecological consequences can be expected to occur. These consequences include competition for planktonic food leading to reduced growth rates, recruitment and abundance of planktivores. Subsequently this would lead to reduced stocks of piscivores and abundance of fishes with pelagic, early life stages. Overall risk is highest for lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie, followed by Lake Ontario then Lake Superior. To avoid the trajectory of the invasion process and prevent or minimize anticipated consequences, it is important to continue to focus efforts on reducing the probability of introduction of these species at either the arrival, survival, establishment, or spread stage (depending on location).

FLIRT-ing with Zika: A Web Application to Predict the Movement of Infected Travelers Validated Against the Current Zika Virus Epidemic

PubMed Central

Huff, Andrew; Allen, Toph; Whiting, Karissa; Breit, Nathan; Arnold, Brock

2016-01-01

Introduction: Beginning in 2015, Zika virus rapidly spread throughout the Americas and has been linked to neurological and autoimmune diseases in adults and babies. Developing accurate tools to anticipate Zika spread is one of the first steps to mitigate further spread of the disease. When combined, air traffic data and network simulations can be used to create tools to predict where infectious disease may spread to and aid in the prevention of infectious diseases. Specific goals were to: 1) predict where travelers infected with the Zika Virus would arrive in the U.S.; and, 2) analyze and validate the open access web application’s (i.e., FLIRT) predictions using data collected after the prediction was made. Method: FLIRT was built to predict the flow and likely destinations of infected travelers through the air travel network. FLIRT uses a database of flight schedules from over 800 airlines, and can display direct flight traffic and perform passenger simulations between selected airports. FLIRT was used to analyze flights departing from five selected airports in locations where sustained Zika Virus transmission was occurring. FLIRT’s predictions were validated against Zika cases arriving in the U.S. from selected airports during the selected time periods.  Kendall’s τ and Generalized Linear Models were computed for all permutations of FLIRT and case data to test the accuracy of FLIRT’s predictions. Results: FLIRT was found to be predictive of the final destinations of infected travelers in the U.S. from areas with ongoing transmission of Zika in the Americas from 01 February 2016 - 01 to April 2016, and 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time periods. MIA-FLL, JFK-EWR-LGA, and IAH were top ranked at-risk metro areas, and Florida, Texas and New York were top ranked states at-risk for the future time period analyzed (11 March 2016 - 11 June 2016). For the 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time period, the region-aggregated model indicated 7.24 (95% CI 6.85 – 7.62) imported Zika cases per 100,000 passengers, and the state-aggregated model suggested 11.33 (95% CI 10.80 – 11.90) imported Zika cases per 100,000 passengers. Discussion: The results from 01 February 2016 to 01 April 2016 and 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time periods support that modeling air travel and passenger movement can be a powerful tool in predicting where infectious diseases will spread next. As FLIRT was shown to significantly predict distribution of Zika Virus cases in the past, there should be heightened biosurveillance and educational campaigns to medical service providers and the general public in these states, especially in the large metropolitan areas.   PMID:27366587

FLIRT-ing with Zika: A Web Application to Predict the Movement of Infected Travelers Validated Against the Current Zika Virus Epidemic.

PubMed

Huff, Andrew; Allen, Toph; Whiting, Karissa; Breit, Nathan; Arnold, Brock

2016-06-10

 Beginning in 2015, Zika virus rapidly spread throughout the Americas and has been linked to neurological and autoimmune diseases in adults and babies. Developing accurate tools to anticipate Zika spread is one of the first steps to mitigate further spread of the disease. When combined, air traffic data and network simulations can be used to create tools to predict where infectious disease may spread to and aid in the prevention of infectious diseases. Specific goals were to: 1) predict where travelers infected with the Zika Virus would arrive in the U.S.; and, 2) analyze and validate the open access web application's (i.e., FLIRT) predictions using data collected after the prediction was made. FLIRT was built to predict the flow and likely destinations of infected travelers through the air travel network. FLIRT uses a database of flight schedules from over 800 airlines, and can display direct flight traffic and perform passenger simulations between selected airports. FLIRT was used to analyze flights departing from five selected airports in locations where sustained Zika Virus transmission was occurring. FLIRT's predictions were validated against Zika cases arriving in the U.S. from selected airports during the selected time periods.  Kendall's τ and Generalized Linear Models were computed for all permutations of FLIRT and case data to test the accuracy of FLIRT's predictions. FLIRT was found to be predictive of the final destinations of infected travelers in the U.S. from areas with ongoing transmission of Zika in the Americas from 01 February 2016 - 01 to April 2016, and 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time periods. MIA-FLL, JFK-EWR-LGA, and IAH were top ranked at-risk metro areas, and Florida, Texas and New York were top ranked states at-risk for the future time period analyzed (11 March 2016 - 11 June 2016). For the 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time period, the region-aggregated model indicated 7.24 (95% CI 6.85 - 7.62) imported Zika cases per 100,000 passengers, and the state-aggregated model suggested 11.33 (95% CI 10.80 - 11.90) imported Zika cases per 100,000 passengers. The results from 01 February 2016 to 01 April 2016 and 11 January 2016 to 11 March 2016 time periods support that modeling air travel and passenger movement can be a powerful tool in predicting where infectious diseases will spread next. As FLIRT was shown to significantly predict distribution of Zika Virus cases in the past, there should be heightened biosurveillance and educational campaigns to medical service providers and the general public in these states, especially in the large metropolitan areas.

Disease surveillance among newly arriving refugees and immigrants--Electronic Disease Notification System, United States, 2009.

PubMed

Lee, Deborah; Philen, Rossanne; Wang, Zanju; McSpadden, Pamela; Posey, Drew L; Ortega, Luis S; Weinberg, Michelle S; Brown, Clive; Zhou, Weigong; Painter, John A

2013-11-15

Approximately 450,000 legal permanent immigrants and 75,000 refugees enter the United States annually after receiving required medical examinations by overseas panel physicians (physicians who follow the CDC medical screening guidelines provided to the U.S. Department of State). CDC has the regulatory responsibility for preventing the introduction, transmission, and spread of communicable diseases into the United States as well as for developing the guidelines, known as technical instructions, for the overseas medical examinations. Other conditions that are not infectious might preclude an immigrant or refugee from entering the United States and also are reported as part of the medical examination. After arrival in the United States, all refugees are recommended to obtain a medical assessment by a health-care provider or a health department within 30 days. In addition, immigrants with certain medical conditions such as noninfectious tuberculosis at the time of the original medical examination are recommended to be evaluated after arrival to ensure that appropriate prevention or treatment measures are instituted. Health departments need timely and accurate notifications of newly arriving immigrants, refugees, and persons with other visa types to facilitate these evaluations. Notifications for all newly arriving refugees (with or without medical conditions) and immigrants with medical conditions are provided by CDC's Electronic Disease Notification (EDN) system. This is the first report describing EDN. This report summarizes notifications by the EDN system during January-December 2009. The EDN system is a centralized electronic reporting system that collects health information on newly arriving refugees and immigrants with Class A and Class B medical conditions. Class A conditions render applicants inadmissible and require a waiver for entry; Class B conditions are admissible but might require treatment or follow-up. Information in the EDN system is used to notify state health departments in all 50 states and the District of Columbia about the arrival of these persons in the United States. In 2009, the EDN system notified U.S. state and local health departments of 104,954 newly arriving refugees and immigrants, of whom 78,899 (75.2%) were refugees (with or without medical conditions), 19,358 (18.4%) were immigrants with medical conditions, and 6,697 (6.4%) were persons with other visa types. Of the 78,899 refugees, 21,319 (27%) had a medical condition. The majority (93.4%) of immigrants with medical conditions had tuberculosis classifications (i.e., either had evidence of latent tuberculosis infection or chest radiograph findings interpreted by the overseas panel physician as consistent with tuberculosis). Of the 41,415 refugees and immigrants with Class A or Class B medical conditions, 405 (1%) had Class A conditions, and 40,994 (99%) had Class B conditions. The majority of refugees and immigrants with suspected Class B tuberculosis were born in the Philippines (41.3%), Mexico (12.1%), Burma (8.7%), Vietnam (7.8%), and the Dominican Republic (5.8%). The majority of refugee notifications were for persons born in Iraq (23.9%), Burma (18.9%), and Bhutan (15.1%). Approximately one third of the tuberculosis notifications were sent to health departments in California (20.5%), Texas (9.8%), and New York (6.3%), and the national reporting rate for tuberculosis follow-up was 75.4% within 30 days of arrival. The findings in this report suggest that 1) overseas medical screening results in a low frequency (0.4%) of inadmissible medical conditions in the United States, 2) the EDN system provides more direct notifications to health departments than the previous paper-based system about newly arriving immigrants and refugees who need medical follow-up, and 3) approximately 75% of follow-up occurs among persons with suspected tuberculosis who are reported to EDN by states receiving newly arriving refugees and immigrants. The data in this report can be used to help state and local health departments provide prompt and effective follow-up, evaluation, and treatment to newly arriving immigrants and refugees. Timely follow-up might prevent additional spread of tuberculosis or other communicable diseases of public health significance into their communities. In addition, information from the EDN system allows health departments to use their resources as effectively as possible by providing clinical information that identifies the refugees and immigrants who should be prioritized for evaluation and treatment.

Zika virus: a previously slow pandemic spreads rapidly through the Americas.

PubMed

Gatherer, Derek; Kohl, Alain

2016-02-01

Zika virus (family Flaviviridae) is an emerging arbovirus. Spread by Aedes mosquitoes, it was first discovered in Uganda in 1947, and later in humans elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, arriving in south-east Asia at latest by the mid-twentieth century. In the twenty-first century, it spread across the Pacific islands reaching South America around 2014. Since then it has spread rapidly northwards reaching Mexico in November 2015. Its clinical profile is that of a dengue-like febrile illness, but associations with Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly have appeared recently. The final geographical range and ultimate clinical impact of Zika virus are still a matter for speculation.

Analyzing the Possibility of Dynamic Earthquake Triggering in Socorro, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, E.; Bilek, S. L.

2011-12-01

The release of energy during an earthquake changes the stress state and seismicity both locally and remotely. Far-field stress changes can lead to triggered earthquakes coinciding with the arrival of the surface waves. This dynamic triggering is found to occur in a variety of tectonic settings, but in particular magmatic regions. Here we test whether the Socorro Magma Body region in central New Mexico hosts triggered seismicity. Preliminary inspection of continuous network data in central New Mexico suggested a local triggered event with the passage of surface waves from an MW 6.9 event in 2009. For a more comprehensive view, we examine data from 379 earthquakes MW ≥ 6.0 between January 15, 2008 to March 13, 2010 recorded on the EarthScope USArray Transportable Network stations located within New Mexico and providing more dense coverage for better detectability. Waveforms from twenty EarthScope stations were windowed around the time of the large event, high-pass filtered at 5 Hz to remove low frequency signals and analyzed to detect high frequency triggered local earthquakes. For each possible trigger detected, waveforms from nine short-period stations in the Socorro Seismic Network were added to aid in locating the events. In the time period analyzed, twelve triggered events were detected. Only one of these events, on August 30, 2009, corresponded to the arrival of surface waves, occurring about a minute after their arrival. The majority of the triggered events occur well after the arrival of the surface waves, indicating that they are either independent of the main shock or the result of delayed dynamic triggering. Delayed dynamic triggering can occur hours or days after the passage of surface waves, and are marked by an increase in seismicity relative to background. Only one of the events, on September 18, 2009, occurred within the Socorro Magma Body area. The rest of these events occur spread throughout New Mexico. The widely spread distribution of possibly triggered events and the low ratio of triggers to main shocks indicates that the rifted magmatic region above the Socorro Magma Body is not particularly susceptible to dynamic triggering from remote main shocks. The lack of direct correspondence to a seismic phase can mean that the detected events may be independent (not triggered events), or the result of delayed dynamic triggering. A comparison to randomly chosen waveforms within the time period as background will reveal if the possible events are a result of delayed dynamic triggering or part of the background.

A Romani mitochondrial haplotype in England 500 years before their recorded arrival in Britain.

PubMed

Töpf, Ana L; Hoelzel, A Rus

2005-09-22

The nomadic Romani (gypsy) people are known for their deep-rooted traditions, but most of their history is recorded from external sources. We find evidence for a Romani genetic lineage in England long before their recorded arrival there. The most likely explanations are that either the historical record is wrong, or that early liaisons between Norse and Romani people during their coincident presence in ninth to tenth century Byzantium led to the spread of the haplotype to England.

Locating seismicity on the Arctic plate boundary using multiple-event techniques and empirical signal processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbons, S. J.; Harris, D. B.; Dahl-Jensen, T.; Kværna, T.; Larsen, T. B.; Paulsen, B.; Voss, P. H.

2017-12-01

The oceanic boundary separating the Eurasian and North American plates between 70° and 84° north hosts large earthquakes which are well recorded teleseismically, and many more seismic events at far lower magnitudes that are well recorded only at regional distances. Existing seismic bulletins have considerable spread and bias resulting from limited station coverage and deficiencies in the velocity models applied. This is particularly acute for the lower magnitude events which may only be constrained by a small number of Pn and Sn arrivals. Over the past two decades there has been a significant improvement in the seismic network in the Arctic: a difficult region to instrument due to the harsh climate, a sparsity of accessible sites (particularly at significant distances from the sea), and the expense and difficult logistics of deploying and maintaining stations. New deployments and upgrades to stations on Greenland, Svalbard, Jan Mayen, Hopen, and Bjørnøya have resulted in a sparse but stable regional seismic network which results in events down to magnitudes below 3 generating high-quality Pn and Sn signals on multiple stations. A catalogue of several hundred events in the region since 1998 has been generated using many new phase readings on stations on both sides of the spreading ridge in addition to teleseismic P phases. A Bayesian multiple event relocation has resulted in a significant reduction in the spread of hypocentre estimates for both large and small events. Whereas single event location algorithms minimize vectors of time residuals on an event-by-event basis, the Bayesloc program finds a joint probability distribution of origins, hypocentres, and corrections to traveltime predictions for large numbers of events. The solutions obtained favour those event hypotheses resulting in time residuals which are most consistent over a given source region. The relocations have been performed with different 1-D velocity models applicable to the Arctic region and hypocentres obtained using Bayesloc have been shown to be relatively insensitive to the specified velocity structure in the crust and upper mantle, even for events only constrained by regional phases. The patterns of time residuals resulting from the multiple-event location procedure provide well-constrained time correction surfaces for single-event location estimates and are sufficiently stable to identify a number of picking errors and instrumental timing anomalies. This allows for subsequent quality control of the input data and further improvement in the location estimates. We use the relocated events to form narrowband empirical steering vectors for wave fronts arriving at the SPITS array on Svalbard for azimuth and apparent velocity estimation. We demonstrate that empirical matched field parameter estimation determined by source region is a viable supplement to planewave f-k analysis, mitigating bias and obviating the need for Slowness and Azimuth Station Corrections. A database of reference events and phase arrivals is provided to facilitate further refinement of event locations and the construction of empirical signal detectors.

Ludwigia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Jepson Manual; Higher Plants of California is the authoritative floristic reference for the state, that has rapidly become out of date given substantial advances in plant systematics and the arrival of new exotic species. Recent aggressive spread of Ludwigia species (Onagraceae) has impacted se...

A stretch/compress scheme for a high temporal resolution detector for the magnetic recoil spectrometer time (MRSt)

DOE PAGES

Hilsabeck, T. J.; Frenje, J. A.; Hares, J. D.; ...

2016-08-02

Here we present a time-resolved detector concept for the magnetic recoil spectrometer for time-resolved measurements of the NIF neutron spectrum. The measurement is challenging due to the time spreading of the recoil protons (or deuterons) as they transit an energy dispersing magnet system. Ions arrive at the focal plane of the magnetic spectrometer over an interval of tens of nanoseconds. We seek to measure the time-resolved neutron spectrum with 20 ps precision by manipulating an electron signal derived from the ions. A stretch-compress scheme is employed to remove transit time skewing while simultaneously reducing the bandwidth requirements for signal recording.more » Simulation results are presented along with design concepts for structures capable of establishing the required electromagnetic fields.« less

A stretch/compress scheme for a high temporal resolution detector for the magnetic recoil spectrometer time (MRSt)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hilsabeck, T. J.; Frenje, J. A.; Hares, J. D.

Here we present a time-resolved detector concept for the magnetic recoil spectrometer for time-resolved measurements of the NIF neutron spectrum. The measurement is challenging due to the time spreading of the recoil protons (or deuterons) as they transit an energy dispersing magnet system. Ions arrive at the focal plane of the magnetic spectrometer over an interval of tens of nanoseconds. We seek to measure the time-resolved neutron spectrum with 20 ps precision by manipulating an electron signal derived from the ions. A stretch-compress scheme is employed to remove transit time skewing while simultaneously reducing the bandwidth requirements for signal recording.more » Simulation results are presented along with design concepts for structures capable of establishing the required electromagnetic fields.« less

An epidemiological model for externally sourced vector-borne viruses applied to Bean yellow mosaic virus in lupin crops in a Mediterranean-type environment.

PubMed

Maling, T; Diggle, A J; Thackray, D J; Siddique, K H M; Jones, R A C

2008-12-01

A hybrid mechanistic/statistical model was developed to predict vector activity and epidemics of vector-borne viruses spreading from external virus sources to an adjacent crop. The pathosystem tested was Bean yellow mosaic virus (BYMV) spreading from annually self-regenerating, legume-based pastures to adjacent crops of narrow-leafed lupin (Lupinus angustifolius) in the winter-spring growing season in a region with a Mediterranean-type environment where the virus persists over summer within dormant seed of annual clovers. The model uses a combination of daily rainfall and mean temperature during late summer and early fall to drive aphid population increase, migration of aphids from pasture to lupin crops, and the spread of BYMV. The model predicted time of arrival of aphid vectors and resulting BYMV spread successfully for seven of eight datasets from 2 years of field observations at four sites representing different rainfall and geographic zones of the southwestern Australian grainbelt. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the relative importance of the main parameters that describe the pathosystem. The hybrid mechanistic/statistical approach used created a flexible analytical tool for vector-mediated plant pathosystems that made useful predictions even when field data were not available for some components of the system.

Impacts of short-time scale water column variability on broadband high-frequency acoustic wave propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eickmeier, Justin

Acoustical oceanography is one way to study the ocean, its internal layers, boundaries and all processes occurring within using underwater acoustics. Acoustical sensing techniques allows for the measurement of ocean processes from within that logistically or financially preclude traditional in-situ measurements. Acoustic signals propagate as pressure wavefronts from a source to a receiver through an ocean medium with variable physical parameters. The water column physical parameters that change acoustic wave propagation in the ocean include temperature, salinity, current, surface roughness, seafloor bathymetry, and vertical stratification over variable time scales. The impacts of short-time scale water column variability on acoustic wave propagation include coherent and incoherent surface reflections, wavefront arrival time delay, focusing or defocusing of the intensity of acoustic beams and refraction of acoustic rays. This study focuses on high-frequency broadband acoustic waves, and examines the influence of short-time scale water column variability on broadband high-frequency acoustics, wavefronts, from 7 to 28 kHz, in shallow water. Short-time scale variability is on the order of seconds to hours and the short-spatial scale variability is on the order of few centimeters. Experimental results were collected during an acoustic experiment along 100 m isobaths and data analysis was conducted using available acoustic wave propagation models. Three main topics are studied to show that acoustic waves are viable as a remote sensing tool to measure oceanographic parameters in shallow water. First, coherent surface reflections forming striation patterns, from multipath receptions, through rough surface interaction of broadband acoustic signals with the dynamic sea surface are analyzed. Matched filtered results of received acoustic waves are compared with a ray tracing numerical model using a sea surface boundary generated from measured water wave spectra at the time of signal propagation. It is determined that on a time scale of seconds, corresponding to typical periods of surface water waves, the arrival time of reflected acoustic signals from surface waves appear as striation patterns in measured data and can be accurately modelled by ray tracing. Second, changes in acoustic beam arrival angle and acoustic ray path influenced by isotherm depth oscillations are analyzed using an 8-element delay-sum beamformer. The results are compared with outputs from a two-dimensional (2-D) parabolic equation (PE) model using measured sound speed profiles (SSPs) in the water column. Using the method of beamforming on the received signal, the arrival time and angle of an acoustic beam was obtained for measured acoustic signals. It is determined that the acoustic ray path, acoustic beam intensity and angular spread are a function of vertical isotherm oscillations on a time scale of minutes and can be modeled accurately by a 2-D PE model. Third, a forward problem is introduced which uses acoustic wavefronts received on a vertical line array, 1.48 km from the source, in the lower part of the water column to infer range dependence or independence in the SSP. The matched filtering results of received acoustic wavefronts at all hydrophone depths are compared with a ray tracing routine augmented to calculate only direct path and bottom reflected signals. It is determined that the SSP range dependence can be inferred on a time scale of hours using an array of hydrophones spanning the water column. Sound speed profiles in the acoustic field were found to be range independent for 11 of the 23 hours in the measurements. A SSP cumulative reconstruction process, conducted from the seafloor to the sea surface, layer-by-layer, identifies critical segments in the SSP that define the ray path, arrival time and boundary interactions. Data-model comparison between matched filtered arrival time spread and arrival time output from the ray tracing was robust when the SSP measured at the receiver was input to the model. When the SSP measured nearest the source (at the same instant in time) was input to the ray tracing model, the data-model comparison was poor. It was determined that the cumulative sound speed change in the SSP near the source was 1.041 m/s greater than that of the SSP at the receiver and resulted in the poor data-model comparison. In this study, the influences on broadband acoustic wave propagation in the frequency range of 7 to 28 kHz of spatial and temporal changes in the oceanography of shallow water regions are addressed. Acoustic waves can be used as remote sensing tools to measure oceanographic parameters in shallow water and data-model comparison results show a direct relationship between the oceanographic variations and acoustic wave propagations.

The effects of invasive pests and pathogens on strategies for forest diversification.

PubMed

Macpherson, Morag F; Kleczkowski, Adam; Healey, John R; Quine, Christopher P; Hanley, Nick

2017-04-24

Diversification of the tree species composition of production forests is a frequently advocated strategy to increase resilience to pests and pathogens; however, there is a lack of a general framework to analyse the impact of economic and biological conditions on the optimal planting strategy in the presence of tree disease. To meet this need we use a novel bioeconomic model to quantitatively assess the effect of tree disease on the optimal planting proportion of two tree species. We find that diversifying the species composition can reduce the economic loss from disease even when the benefit from the resistant species is small. However, this key result is sensitive to a pathogen's characteristics (probability of arrival, time of arrival, rate of spread of infection) and the losses (damage of the disease to the susceptible species and reduced benefit of planting the resistant species). This study provides an exemplar framework which can be used to help understand the effect of a pathogen on forest management strategies.

Detecting Selection on Temporal and Spatial Scales: A Genomic Time-Series Assessment of Selective Responses to Devil Facial Tumor Disease

PubMed Central

Brüniche-Olsen, Anna; Austin, Jeremy J.; Jones, Menna E.; Holland, Barbara R.; Burridge, Christopher P.

2016-01-01

Detecting loci under selection is an important task in evolutionary biology. In conservation genetics detecting selection is key to investigating adaptation to the spread of infectious disease. Loci under selection can be detected on a spatial scale, accounting for differences in demographic history among populations, or on a temporal scale, tracing changes in allele frequencies over time. Here we use these two approaches to investigate selective responses to the spread of an infectious cancer—devil facial tumor disease (DFTD)—that since 1996 has ravaged the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii). Using time-series ‘restriction site associated DNA’ (RAD) markers from populations pre- and post DFTD arrival, and DFTD free populations, we infer loci under selection due to DFTD and investigate signatures of selection that are incongruent among methods, populations, and times. The lack of congruence among populations influenced by DFTD with respect to inferred loci under selection, and the direction of that selection, fail to implicate a consistent selective role for DFTD. Instead genetic drift is more likely driving the observed allele frequency changes over time. Our study illustrates the importance of applying methods with different performance optima e.g. accounting for population structure and background selection, and assessing congruence of the results. PMID:26930198

The tragic 1824 journey of the Hawaiian king and queen to London: history of measles in Hawaii.

PubMed

Shulman, Stanford T; Shulman, Deborah L; Sims, Ronald H

2009-08-01

The susceptibility of isolated island-based populations to acute infections like measles is well documented, most clearly in Fiji and the Faröe Islands. We review the remarkably tragic 1824 journey of King Kamehameha II and Queen Kamamalu of Hawaii to London and the later enormous impact of measles on Hawaii on first arrival in 1848. The young royalty came to seek an audience with King George IV to negotiate an alliance with England. Virtually the entire royal party developed measles within weeks of arrival, 7 to 10 days after visiting the Royal Military Asylum housing hundreds of soldiers' children. Within the month the king (27) and queen (22) succumbed to measles complications. Their bodies were transported to Hawaii by Right Honorable Lord Byron (Captain George Anson, the poet's cousin). Before 1848 measles was unknown in Hawaii. Several epidemics struck Hawaii in late 1848, beginning with measles and pertussis, then diarrhea and influenza. Measles arrived at this time from California, spreading from Hilo, Hawaii, through all the islands; 10% to 33% of the population died. Subsequent measles epidemics occurred in 1861, 1889 to 1890, 1898, and 1936 to 1937, the latter with 205 deaths. The imported epidemics of infections including measles diminished Hawaii's population from approximately 300,000 at Captain Cook's arrival in 1778 to 135,000 in 1820 and 53,900 in 1876. The measles deaths of the king and queen in London in 1824, likely acquired visiting a large children's home, was a harbinger of the devastating impact of measles upon Hawaiians 24 years later with its first arrival to the Sandwich (Hawaiian) Islands.

Deconvolution improves the accuracy and depth sensitivity of time-resolved measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diop, Mamadou; St. Lawrence, Keith

2013-03-01

Time-resolved (TR) techniques have the potential to distinguish early- from late-arriving photons. Since light travelling through superficial tissue is detected earlier than photons that penetrate the deeper layers, time-windowing can in principle be used to improve the depth sensitivity of TR measurements. However, TR measurements also contain instrument contributions - referred to as the instrument-response-function (IRF) - which cause temporal broadening of the measured temporal-point-spread-function (TPSF). In this report, we investigate the influence of the IRF on pathlength-resolved absorption changes (Δμa) retrieved from TR measurements using the microscopic Beer-Lambert law (MBLL). TPSFs were acquired on homogeneous and two-layer tissue-mimicking phantoms with varying optical properties. The measured IRF and TPSFs were deconvolved to recover the distribution of time-of-flights (DTOFs) of the detected photons. The microscopic Beer-Lambert law was applied to early and late time-windows of the TPSFs and DTOFs to access the effects of the IRF on pathlength-resolved Δμa. The analysis showed that the late part of the TPSFs contains substantial contributions from early-arriving photons, due to the smearing effects of the IRF, which reduced its sensitivity to absorption changes occurring in deep layers. We also demonstrated that the effects of the IRF can be efficiently eliminated by applying a robust deconvolution technique, thereby improving the accuracy and sensitivity of TR measurements to deep-tissue absorption changes.

Dispersal and diversity in the earliest North American sauropodomorph dinosaurs, with a description of a new taxon.

PubMed

Rowe, Timothy B; Sues, Hans-Dieter; Reisz, Robert R

2011-04-07

Sauropodomorph dinosaurs originated in the Southern Hemisphere in the Middle or Late Triassic and are commonly portrayed as spreading rapidly to all corners of Pangaea as part of a uniform Late Triassic to Early Jurassic cosmopolitan dinosaur fauna. Under this model, dispersal allegedly inhibited dinosaurian diversification, while vicariance and local extinction enhanced it. However, apomorphy-based analyses of the known fossil record indicate that sauropodomorphs were absent in North America until the Early Jurassic, reframing the temporal context of their arrival. We describe a new taxon from the Kayenta Formation of Arizona that comprises the third diagnosable sauropodomorph from the Early Jurassic of North America. We analysed its relationships to test whether sauropodomorphs reached North America in a single sweepstakes event or in separate dispersals. Our finding of separate arrivals by all three taxa suggests dispersal as a chief factor in dinosaurian diversification during at least the early Mesozoic. It questions whether a 'cosmopolitan' dinosaur fauna ever existed, and corroborates that vicariance, extinction and dispersal did not operate uniformly in time or under uniform conditions during the Mesozoic. Their relative importance is best measured in narrow time slices and circumscribed geographical regions.

Dispersal and diversity in the earliest North American sauropodomorph dinosaurs, with a description of a new taxon

PubMed Central

Rowe, Timothy B.; Sues, Hans-Dieter; Reisz, Robert R.

2011-01-01

Sauropodomorph dinosaurs originated in the Southern Hemisphere in the Middle or Late Triassic and are commonly portrayed as spreading rapidly to all corners of Pangaea as part of a uniform Late Triassic to Early Jurassic cosmopolitan dinosaur fauna. Under this model, dispersal allegedly inhibited dinosaurian diversification, while vicariance and local extinction enhanced it. However, apomorphy-based analyses of the known fossil record indicate that sauropodomorphs were absent in North America until the Early Jurassic, reframing the temporal context of their arrival. We describe a new taxon from the Kayenta Formation of Arizona that comprises the third diagnosable sauropodomorph from the Early Jurassic of North America. We analysed its relationships to test whether sauropodomorphs reached North America in a single sweepstakes event or in separate dispersals. Our finding of separate arrivals by all three taxa suggests dispersal as a chief factor in dinosaurian diversification during at least the early Mesozoic. It questions whether a ‘cosmopolitan’ dinosaur fauna ever existed, and corroborates that vicariance, extinction and dispersal did not operate uniformly in time or under uniform conditions during the Mesozoic. Their relative importance is best measured in narrow time slices and circumscribed geographical regions. PMID:20926438

Phenotypically heterogeneous populations in spatially heterogeneous environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Pintu; Klumpp, Stefan

2014-03-01

The spatial expansion of a population in a nonuniform environment may benefit from phenotypic heterogeneity with interconverting subpopulations using different survival strategies. We analyze the crossing of an antibiotic-containing environment by a bacterial population consisting of rapidly growing normal cells and slow-growing, but antibiotic-tolerant persister cells. The dynamics of crossing is characterized by mean first arrival times and is found to be surprisingly complex. It displays three distinct regimes with different scaling behavior that can be understood based on an analytical approximation. Our results suggest that a phenotypically heterogeneous population has a fitness advantage in nonuniform environments and can spread more rapidly than a homogeneous population.

Temporal Constraint Propagation for Airlift Planning Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

STATIOU KMSP) (OFFLOAD-STATION EGUN ) (AVAILABLE-TIME COIO) (EARLIEST-ARRIVAL-TIME C012) (LATEST-ARRIVAL-TIME COlS) (PRIORITY 001) (BULK-CARGO 200...CODES NIL)) ($F (LOAD-DESIG!ATOR RI) (ONLOAD-STATION KLFI) (OFFLOAD-STATION EGUN ) (AVAILABLE-TIME COOO) (EARLIEST-ARRIVAL-TIME COOS) (LATEST-ARRIVAL...CATEGORY-CODES NIL)) ($F (LOAD-DESIGNATOR RIS) (ONLOAD-STATION KSBD) (OFFLOAD-STATION EGUN ) (AVAILABLE-TIME COO) (EARLIEST-ARRIVAL-TIME COOS) (LATEST

Lime application to manure as a management strategy for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Arrival of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) in 2013 resulted in billions of dollars in losses in the United States. Currently, increased on-farm biosecurity and mortality management help limit the virus spread. Managing PEDv infections requires mandatory reporting to the United States Depart...

History vs. legend: Retracing invasion and spread of Oxalis pes-caprae L. in Europe and the Mediterranean area

PubMed Central

Signorini, Maria Adele; Foggi, Bruno; Della Giovampaola, Enrico; Ongaro, Luca; Vivona, Laura; Santosuosso, Ugo; Tani, Corrado; Bruschi, Piero

2017-01-01

Oxalis pes-caprae L. is a South African geophyte that behaves as an invasive in the eurimediterranean area. According to a long-established hypothesis, O. pes-caprae may have invaded Europe and the Mediterranean area starting from a single plant introduced in the Botanical Garden of Malta at the beginning of the 19th century. The aim of this work was to test this hypothesis, to track the arrival of O. pes-caprae in different countries of the Euro-Mediterranean area and to understand the pathways of spreading and particularly its starting point(s). Historical data attesting the presence of the plant in the whole Euro-Mediterranean region were collected from different sources: herbarium specimens, Floras and other botanical papers, plant lists of gardens, catalogs of plant nurseries and plant dealers. First records of the plant (both cultivated and wild) for each Territorial Unit (3rd level of NUTS) were selected and used to draw up a diachronic map and an animated graphic. Both documents clearly show that oldest records are scattered throughout the whole area, proving that the plant arrived in Europe and in the Mediterranean region more times independently and that its spreading started in different times from several different centers of invasion. Botanical gardens and other public or private gardens, nurseries and plant dealers, and above all seaside towns and harbors seemingly played a strategic role as a source of either intentional and unintentional introduction or spread. A geographic profiling analysis was performed to analyse the data. We used also techniques (Silhouette, Kmeans and Voronoi tessellation) capable of verifying the presence of more than one independent clusters of data on the basis of their geographical distribution. Microsatellites were employed for a preliminary analysis of genetic variation in the Mediterranean. Even if the sampling was insufficient, particularly among the populations of the original area, our data supported three main groups of populations, one of them corresponding to the central group of populations identified by GP analysis, and the other two corresponding, respectively, to the western and the eastern cluster of data. The most probable areas of origin of the invasion in the three clusters of observations are characterized by the presence of localities where the invasive plant was cultivated, with the exception of the Iberian cluster of observation where the observations in the field predate the data about known cultivation localities. Alternative possible reasons are also suggested, to explain the current prevalence of pentaploid short-styled plants in the Euro-Mediterranean area. PMID:29287103

Regularities and irregularities in order flow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, Martin; Krause, Sebastian M.; Guhr, Thomas

2017-11-01

We identify and analyze statistical regularities and irregularities in the recent order flow of different NASDAQ stocks, focusing on the positions where orders are placed in the order book. This includes limit orders being placed outside of the spread, inside the spread and (effective) market orders. Based on the pairwise comparison of the order flow of different stocks, we perform a clustering of stocks into groups with similar behavior. This is useful to assess systemic aspects of stock price dynamics. We find that limit order placement inside the spread is strongly determined by the dynamics of the spread size. Most orders, however, arrive outside of the spread. While for some stocks order placement on or next to the quotes is dominating, deeper price levels are more important for other stocks. As market orders are usually adjusted to the quote volume, the impact of market orders depends on the order book structure, which we find to be quite diverse among the analyzed stocks as a result of the way limit order placement takes place.

Locating low-frequency earthquakes using amplitude signals from seismograph stations: Examples from events at Montserrat, West Indies and from synthetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolly, A.; Jousset, P.; Neuberg, J.

2003-04-01

We determine locations for low-frequency earthquakes occurring prior to a collapse on June 25th, 1997 using signal amplitudes from a 7-station local seismograph network at the Soufriere Hills volcano on Montserrat, West Indies. Locations are determined by averaging the signal amplitude over the event waveform and inverting these data using an assumed amplitude decay model comprising geometrical spreading and attenuation. Resulting locations are centered beneath the active dome from 500 to 2000 m below sea level assuming body wave geometrical spreading and a quality factor of Q=22. Locations for the same events shifted systematically shallower by about 500 m assuming a surface wave geometrical spreading. Locations are consistent to results obtained using arrival time methods. The validity of the method is tested against synthetic low-frequency events constructed from a 2-D finite difference model including visco-elastic properties. Two example events are tested; one from a point source triggered in a low velocity conduit ranging between 100-1100 m below the surface, and the second triggered in a conduit located 1500-2500 m below the surface. Resulting seismograms have emergent onsets and extended codas and include the effect of conduit resonance. Employing geometrical spreading and attenuation from the finite-difference modelling, we obtain locations within the respective model conduits validating our approach.The location depths are sensitive to the assumed geometric spreading and Q model. We can distinguish between two sources separated by about 1000 meters only if we know the decay parameters.

Arrival of the Fukushima radioactivity plume in North American continental waters

PubMed Central

Smith, John N.; Brown, Robin M.; Williams, William J.; Robert, Marie; Nelson, Richard; Moran, S. Bradley

2015-01-01

The large discharge of radioactivity into the northwest Pacific Ocean from the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear reactor accident has generated considerable concern about the spread of this material across the ocean to North America. We report here the first systematic study to our knowledge of the transport of the Fukushima marine radioactivity signal to the eastern North Pacific. Time series measurements of 134Cs and 137Cs in seawater revealed the initial arrival of the Fukushima signal by ocean current transport at a location 1,500 km west of British Columbia, Canada, in June 2012, about 1.3 y after the accident. By June 2013, the Fukushima signal had spread onto the Canadian continental shelf, and by February 2014, it had increased to a value of 2 Bq/m3 throughout the upper 150 m of the water column, resulting in an overall doubling of the fallout background from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests. Ocean circulation model estimates that are in reasonable agreement with our measured values indicate that future total levels of 137Cs (Fukushima-derived plus fallout 137Cs) off the North American coast will likely attain maximum values in the 3–5 Bq/m3 range by 2015–2016 before declining to levels closer to the fallout background of about 1 Bq/m3 by 2021. The increase in 137Cs levels in the eastern North Pacific from Fukushima inputs will probably return eastern North Pacific concentrations to the fallout levels that prevailed during the 1980s but does not represent a threat to human health or the environment. PMID:25548181

West Eurasian mtDNA lineages in India: an insight into the spread of the Dravidian language and the origins of the caste system.

PubMed

Palanichamy, Malliya Gounder; Mitra, Bikash; Zhang, Cai-Ling; Debnath, Monojit; Li, Gui-Mei; Wang, Hua-Wei; Agrawal, Suraksha; Chaudhuri, Tapas Kumar; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2015-06-01

There is no indication from the previous mtDNA studies that west Eurasian-specific subclades have evolved within India and played a role in the spread of languages and the origins of the caste system. To address these issues, we have screened 14,198 individuals (4208 from this study) and analyzed 112 mitogenomes (41 new sequences) to trace west Eurasian maternal ancestry. This has led to the identification of two autochthonous subhaplogroups--HV14a1 and U1a1a4, which are likely to have originated in the Dravidian-speaking populations approximately 10.5-17.9 thousand years ago (kya). The carriers of these maternal lineages might have settled in South India during the time of the spread of the Dravidian language. In addition to this, we have identified several subsets of autochthonous U7 lineages, including U7a1, U7a2b, U7a3, U7a6, U7a7, and U7c, which seem to have originated particularly in the higher-ranked caste populations in relatively recent times (2.6-8.0 kya with an average of 5.7 kya). These lineages have provided crucial clues to the differentiation of the caste system that has occurred during the recent past and possibly, this might have been influenced by the Indo-Aryan migration. The remaining west Eurasian lineages observed in the higher-ranked caste groups, like the Brahmins, were found to cluster with populations who possibly arrived from west Asia during more recent times.

Cretaceous to present kinematics of the Indian, African and Seychelles plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eagles, Graeme; Hoang, Ha H.

2014-01-01

An iterative inverse model of seafloor spreading data from the Mascarene and Madagascar basins and the flanks of the Carlsberg Ridge describes a continuous history of Indian-African Plate divergence since 84 Ma. Visual-fit modelling of conjugate magnetic anomaly data from near the Seychelles platform and Laxmi Ridge documents rapid rotation of a Seychelles Plate about a nearby Euler pole in Palaeocene times. As the Euler pole migrated during this rotation, the Amirante Trench on the western side of the plate accommodated first convergence and later divergence with the African Plate. The unusual present-day morphology of the Amirante Trench and neighbouring Amirante Banks can be related to crustal thickening by thrusting and folding during the convergent phase and the subsequent development of a spreading centre with a median valley during the divergent phase. The model fits FZ trends in the north Arabian and east Somali basins, suggesting that they formed in India-Africa Plate divergence. Seafloor fabric in and between the basins shows that they initially hosted a segmented spreading ridge that accommodated slow plate divergence until 71-69 Ma, and that upon arrival of the Deccan-Réunion plume and an increase to faster plate divergence rates in the period 69-65 Ma, segments of the ridge lengthened and propagated. Ridge propagation into the Indian continental margin led first to the formation of the Laxmi Basin, which accompanied extensive volcanism onshore at the Deccan Traps and offshore at the Saurashtra High and Somnath Ridge. A second propagation episode initiated the ancestral Carlsberg Ridge at which Seychelles-India and India-Africa Plate motions were accommodated. With the completion of this propagation, the plate boundaries in the Mascarene Basin were abandoned. Seafloor spreading between this time and the present has been accommodated solely at the Carlsberg Ridge.

Role of Off-Line-of-Sight Propagation in Geomagnetic EMP Formation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kruger, Hans W.

The author’s synchrotron radiation based 3D geomagnetic EMP code MACSYNC has been used to explore the impact on pulse rise time and air conductivity of EMP propagation paths to the observer that are located off the direct line-of-sight (LOS) between gamma source and observer. This geometry is always present because, for an isotropic source, most the gammas are emitted at an angle with respect to the LOS. Computations for a 1 kt near-surface burst observed from space yield two principal findings: 1. The rise time is generated by the combined actions of a) electron spreading along the LOS due tomore » the Compton electron emission angular distribution folded with electron multiple scattering effects, and b) radiation arrival time spreading due to length differences for different off-LOS propagation paths. The pulse rise time does not depend on the rise time of the conductivity. The conductivity rise time determines the pulse amplitude. 2. One-dimensional legacy EMP codes are inherently incapable of producing the correct pulse shape because they cannot treat the dependence of the conductivity on two dimensions, i.e. the radius from the source and the angle of the propagation path with the LOS. This divergence from one-dimensionality begins at a small fraction of a nanosecond for a sea-level burst. This effect will also be present in high-altitude bursts, however, determination of its onset time and magnitude requires high-altitude computations which have not yet been done.« less

"Brown" at 62: School Segregation by Race, Poverty and State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orfield, Gary; Ee, Jongyeon; Frankenberg, Erica; Siegel-Hawley, Genevieve

2016-01-01

As the anniversary of "Brown v. Board of Education" decision arrives again without any major initiatives to mitigate spreading and deepening segregation in the nation's schools, the Civil Rights Project adds to a growing national discussion with a research brief drawn from a much broader study of school segregation to be published in…

Indochinese Cross-Cultural Adjustment and Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nguyen, Liem Dang

Information is given about the cultural and religious background of Indochinese refugees arriving in the United States since 1975, to be used as a basis for promoting cross-cultural adjustment and communication with and in this group. The Indochinese exodus since 1975 is briefly described, focusing on the journey undertaken and the spread of…

A highly aggregated geographical distribution of forest pest invasions in the USA

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Deborah G. McCullough; Laura M. Blackburn; Susan J. Frankel; Betsy Von Holle; Juliann E. Aukema

2013-01-01

Geographical variation in numbers of established non-native species provides clues to the underlying processes driving biological invasions. Specifically, this variation reflects landscape characteristics that drive non-native species arrival, establishment and spread. Here, we investigate spatial variation in damaging non-native forest insect and pathogen species to...

The Southern Appalachians: A History of the Landscape

Treesearch

Susan L. Yarnell

1998-01-01

Natural and geological processes have changed the Southern Appalachian landscape repeatedly over millions of years. About 12,000 years ago, humans arrived and became important agents of change. People affected their environment by hunting, by spreading the seeds of plants they had gathered, by disturbing the vegetation around their habitations, and by increasing the...

Multiple Signal Classification for Determining Direction of Arrival of Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum Signals

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-27

42 4.2.3 Number of Hops Hs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 4.2.4 Number of Sensors M... 45 4.5 Standard deviation vs. Ns. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 4.6 Bias...laboratory MTM multiple taper method MUSIC multiple signal classification MVDR minimum variance distortionless reposnse PSK phase shift keying QAM

Ecology of forest insect invasions

Treesearch

E.G. Brockerhoff; A.M. Liebhold

2017-01-01

Forests in virtually all regions of the world are being affected by invasions of non-native insects. We conducted an in-depth review of the traits of successful invasive forest insects and the ecological processes involved in insect invasions across the universal invasion phases (transport and arrival, establishment, spread and impacts). Most forest insect invasions...

Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement

Treesearch

Robert C. Venette; Darren J. Kriticos; Roger D. Magarey; Frank H. Koch; Richard H.A. Baker; Susan P. Worner; Nadilia N. Gomez Raboteaux; Daniel W. McKenney; Erhard J. Dobesberger; Denys Yemshanov; Paul J. De Barro; William D. Hutchison; Glenn Fowler; Tom M. Kalaris; John Pedlar

2010-01-01

Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions, such as potential restrictions on international trade or the design of pest surveys and domestic quarantines. Diverse methods are available to...

Spread of parasites transported with their hosts: case study of two species of cattle tick.

PubMed

Barré, N; Uilenberg, G

2010-04-01

Like all parasites, ticks can be spread easily along with their hosts. Ticks are obligate parasites of vertebrates, to which they attach themselves for varying periods of time, and are well-adapted to this mode of transport. Once the transport stage is complete and they have detached at destination, they are also able to wait several months for the arrival of a new host on which they will continue their life cycle. This leads to the establishment of a secondary tick population. Two tropical cattle tick species, Rhipicephalus microplus and Amblyomma variegatum, have perfected this strategy of colonisation and occupation of favourable zones. Rhipicephalus microplus, which originated from South and Southeast Asia, is highly specific for ungulates, and thanks to cattle movements it has spread throughout the tropical belt, apart from the remotest areas. Amblyomma variegatum, which originated in Africa, was transported to Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands, as well as to the West Indies, during the time of the Atlantic triangular trade. These two ticks are vectors of particularly serious cattle diseases: babesiosis and anaplasmosis in the case of R. microplus, and heartwater (cowdriosis) in the case of A. variegatum. Anticipated climate changes are likely to modify the potential geographical range of these two parasite species and numerous others. Even now there are still many areas of the Americas, Asia and Oceania into which A. variegatum has not yet spread, but which it would find favourable. It could be spread not only by the transport of cattle, but also by the migration of some of its other hosts, such as birds. Surveillance--and know-how--is needed to identify these parasites when they first appear and to rapidly contain new outbreaks. Efforts should be made to raise the awareness of livestock professionals about the risks of transporting cattle. Regulations should be implemented and precautions taken to avoid such artificial expansion of the range of ticks and the diseases they transmit.

Role of Arrival Time Difference Between Lesions and Lung Tissue on Contrast-Enhanced Sonography in the Differential Diagnosis of Subpleural Pulmonary Lesions.

PubMed

Bai, Jing; Yang, Wei; Wang, Song; Guan, Rui-Hong; Zhang, Hui; Fu, Jing-Jing; Wu, Wei; Yan, Kun

2016-07-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the diagnostic value of the arrival time difference between lesions and surrounding lung tissue on contrast-enhanced sonography of subpleural pulmonary lesions. A total of 110 patients with subpleural pulmonary lesions who underwent both conventional and contrast-enhanced sonography and had a definite diagnosis were enrolled. After contrast agent injection, the arrival times in the lesion, lung, and chest wall were recorded. The arrival time differences between various tissues were also calculated. Statistical analysis showed a significant difference in the lesion arrival time, the arrival time difference between the lesion and lung, and the arrival time difference between the chest wall and lesion (all P < .001) for benign and malignant lesions. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the optimal diagnostic criterion was the arrival time difference between the lesion and lung, and that the best cutoff point was 2.5 seconds (later arrival signified malignancy). This new diagnostic criterion showed superior diagnostic accuracy (97.1%) compared to conventional diagnostic criteria. The individualized diagnostic method based on an arrival time comparison using contrast-enhanced sonography had high diagnostic accuracy (97.1%) with good feasibility and could provide useful diagnostic information for subpleural pulmonary lesions.

Nature of the seismic crust at the Aegir Ridge: A downward continuation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Abhishek; Breivik, Asbj|rn; Mjelde, Rolf; Hanan, Barry; Ito, Garrett; Sayit, Kaan; Howell, Sam; Vogt, Peter; Pedersen, Rolf-Birger

2013-04-01

The marine seismic data are influenced by variations in the thickness and velocity of the water column which causes fluctuations in the arrival times of seismic phases. Downward continuation of the ocean-bottom seismometer data are used to remove the contributions of the water column by bring the shot and receiver at a common datum such as the seafloor. Additionally, the downward continuation focus the seismic energy and hence improves the resolution. We apply the downward continuation technique to analyze the OBS data collected along the eastern shoulder of the Aegir Ridge. The Aegir Ridge is an extinct spreading ridge in the North-East Atlantic ocean. Its proximity to the active Iceland hot-spot makes it important for understanding the process of hotspot-ridge interaction during the Oligocene. We present results of an OBS experiment, supported by single channel streamer, gravity and magnetic observations. Usable seismic data from 20 OBSs distributed along ~550 km length of the profile reveal the variations in crustal thickness and seismic velocities. Regional magnetic anomalies show a faster spreading rate towards the north and a slower spreading towards the southern end near the Iceland hotspot during the active period of the ridge. However, the observed and the predicted crustal thickness show an opposite trend. We interpret this anti-correlation between the seafloor spreading rate and the crustal thickness as a result of the interaction between the Iceland hotspot and the Aegir Ridge.

A Fast-Time Simulation Tool for Analysis of Airport Arrival Traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erzberger, Heinz; Meyn, Larry A.; Neuman, Frank

2004-01-01

The basic objective of arrival sequencing in air traffic control automation is to match traffic demand and airport capacity while minimizing delays. The performance of an automated arrival scheduling system, such as the Traffic Management Advisor developed by NASA for the FAA, can be studied by a fast-time simulation that does not involve running expensive and time-consuming real-time simulations. The fast-time simulation models runway configurations, the characteristics of arrival traffic, deviations from predicted arrival times, as well as the arrival sequencing and scheduling algorithm. This report reviews the development of the fast-time simulation method used originally by NASA in the design of the sequencing and scheduling algorithm for the Traffic Management Advisor. The utility of this method of simulation is demonstrated by examining the effect on delays of altering arrival schedules at a hub airport.

Arrival Time Tracking of Partially Resolved Acoustic Rays with Application to Ocean Acoustic Tomography

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

ocean acoustic tomography. A straightforward method of arrival time estimation, based on locating the maximum value of an interpolated arrival, was...used with limited success for analysis of data from the December 1988 Monterey Bay Tomography Experiment. Close examination of the data revealed multiple...estimation of arrival times along an ocean acoustic ray path is an important component of ocean acoustic tomography. A straightforward method of arrival time

Asymmetric consequences of host plant occupation on the competition between the whiteflies Bemisia tabaci cryptic species MEAM1 and Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae).

PubMed

Zhang, Gui-Fen; Lövei, Gábor L; Hu, Man; Wan, Fang-Hao

2014-12-01

The two common whitefly species, Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) MEAM1 and Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood), often co-occur on their host plants. The effect of host plant occupation by one species on later-arriving conspecific individuals or on the other competing species was examined. Resource preoccupied by T. vaporariorum had mostly negative effects on the life history parameters of later-arriving conspecifics. Red-eyed nymph and immature survival of T. vaporariorum decreased when resource was preoccupied by conspecifics, irrespective of the previous occupation scenario. However, resource preoccupied by T. vaporariorum had only minor detrimental effects on the performance of later-arriving B. tabaci MEAM1. In the opposite colonisation sequence, previous occupation by B. tabaci MEAM1 had no significant effects on the life history parameters of later-arriving conspecifics, but severe detrimental effects were observed on the performance of later-arriving T. vaporariorum. Total immature survival of T. vaporariorum decreased in both weak and strong previous occupation situations by B. tabaci MEAM1. The interspecific interactions between B. tabaci MEAM1 and T. vaporariorum were asymmetric, with B. tabaci MEAM1 being the superior competitor. This superiority could partially explain the rapid spread of B. tabaci MEAM1 in China. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Development of Screening Trials to Rank Pinus radiata Genotypes for Resistance to Defoliation by Monterey Pine Aphid (Essigella californica)

Treesearch

Stephen Elms; Peter Ades; Nick Collet

2012-01-01

The Monterey pine aphid (Essigella californica) is a recent arrival in Australia, having first been detected in 1998. It quickly spread throughout the national radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) plantation estate, causing seasonal defoliation and compromising tree growth in many areas. Selection of resistant radiata...

Outreach and education efforts to counter the spread and impact of goldspotted oak borer

Treesearch

Janis G. Gonzales; Thomas A. Scott; Kevin W. Turner; Lorin L. Lima

2015-01-01

The goldspotted oak borer (GSOB) Agrilus auroguttatus (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), has killed over 80,000 oaks across all land ownerships, costing over $8 million in public and private funds for mitigation and response. Linked to oak mortality in San Diego County in 2008, this exotic beetle likely arrived in California through infested firewood from...

Demonstrating the benefits of phytosanitary regulations: the case of ISPM 15

Treesearch

Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Juliann E. Aukema; Joseph F. Cavey; Lynn J. Garrett; Robert A. Haack; Mark Kimberley; Andrew M. Liebhold; Frank L. Lowenstein; Carissa Marasas; Amelia Nuding; Lars Olson; Christa Speekmann; Michael Springborn; Christina Vieglais; James Turner

2011-01-01

Invasions of non-indigenous insects and pathogens threaten trees and forest ecosystems worldwide. For example, the arrival and spread of the pathogens causing chestnut blight and Dutch elm disease, along with the bark beetles vectoring the latter, had dramatic effects on North American forests. Despite our improved awareness of the risks associated with biological...

Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement

Treesearch

Robert C. Venette; Darren J. Kriticos; Roger D. Magarey; Frank H. Koch; Richard H. A. Baker; Susan P. Worner; Nadila N. Gomez Raboteaux; Daniel W. McKenney; Erhard J. Dobesberger; Denys Yemshanov; Paul J. De Barro; William D. Hutchinson; Glenn Fowler; Tom M. Kalaris; John Pedlar

2010-01-01

Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions, such as potential restrictions on international trade or the design of pest surveys and domestic quarantines. Diverse methods are available to...

Towards a Comprehensive Seismic Velocity Model for the Broader Africa-Eurasia Collision Region, to Improve Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

der Lee, S v; Flanagan, M P; Rodgers, A J

2005-07-13

We report on progress towards a new, comprehensive three-dimensional model of seismic velocity in a broad region encompassing the Middle East, northern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula, the Turkish-Iranian Plateau, Indus Valley, and the Hindu Kush. Our model will be based on regional waveform fits, surface wave group velocity measurements, teleseismic arrival times of S and P waves, receiver functions, and published results from active source experiments. We are in the process of assembling each of these data sets and testing the joint inversion for subsets of the data. Seismograms come from a variety of permanentmore » and temporary seismic stations in the region. Some of the data is easily accessible through, for example, IRIS, while collection of other data is more involved. This work builds on ongoing work by Schmid et al. (GJI, 2004, and manuscript in preparation). In these proceedings we highlight our data sets and their inferences, demonstrate the proposed new data-inversion modeling methodology, discuss results from preliminary inversions of subsets of the data, and demonstrate the prediction of arrival times with three-dimensional velocity models. We compare our preliminary inversion results to the results of Schmid et al., and the predicted arrival times to ground-truth data from the NNSA Knowledge Base. Our data sets are simultaneously redundant and highly complementary. The combined data coverage will ensure that our three-dimensional model comprises the crust, the upper mantle, including the transition zone, and the top of the lower mantle, with spatially varying, but useful resolution. The region of interest is one of the most structurally heterogeneous in the world. Continental collision, rifting and sea-floor spreading, back-arc spreading, oceanic subduction, rotating micro plates, continental shelf, and stable platforms, are just some of the region's characteristics. Seismicity and the distribution of seismic stations are also geographically heterogeneous. The crustal thickness ranges from near 20 to near 45 km under dry places in the Mediterranean region alone, which contains at least seven of the fourteen types of crust defined globally by Mooney et al. (1998). The S-velocity varies laterally by an entire 1 km/s over 1000 km within the uppermost mantle. On average the S-velocity is 50 to 150 m/s slower, between a depth of 150 km and the Moho, than global model iasp91. These lowered S velocities reflect the high amount of tectonic activity in the study region. In the transition zone the S-velocity is roughly 150 m/s higher than iasp91. These heightened S velocities likely reflect the numerous fragments of oceanic lithosphere that subducted in the study region during geologically relatively recent times.« less

A ripple-spreading genetic algorithm for the aircraft sequencing problem.

PubMed

Hu, Xiao-Bing; Di Paolo, Ezequiel A

2011-01-01

When genetic algorithms (GAs) are applied to combinatorial problems, permutation representations are usually adopted. As a result, such GAs are often confronted with feasibility and memory-efficiency problems. With the aircraft sequencing problem (ASP) as a study case, this paper reports on a novel binary-representation-based GA scheme for combinatorial problems. Unlike existing GAs for the ASP, which typically use permutation representations based on aircraft landing order, the new GA introduces a novel ripple-spreading model which transforms the original landing-order-based ASP solutions into value-based ones. In the new scheme, arriving aircraft are projected as points into an artificial space. A deterministic method inspired by the natural phenomenon of ripple-spreading on liquid surfaces is developed, which uses a few parameters as input to connect points on this space to form a landing sequence. A traditional GA, free of feasibility and memory-efficiency problems, can then be used to evolve the ripple-spreading related parameters in order to find an optimal sequence. Since the ripple-spreading model is the centerpiece of the new algorithm, it is called the ripple-spreading GA (RSGA). The advantages of the proposed RSGA are illustrated by extensive comparative studies for the case of the ASP.

Back-arc extension in the Andaman Sea: Tectonic and magmatic processes imaged by high-precision teleseismic double-difference earthquake relocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diehl, T.; Waldhauser, F.; Cochran, J. R.; Kamesh Raju, K. A.; Seeber, L.; Schaff, D.; Engdahl, E. R.

2013-05-01

geometry, kinematics, and mode of back-arc extension along the Andaman Sea plate boundary are refined using a new set of significantly improved hypocenters, global centroid moment tensor (CMT) solutions, and high-resolution bathymetry. By applying cross-correlation and double-difference (DD) algorithms to regional and teleseismic waveforms and arrival times from International Seismological Centre and National Earthquake Information Center bulletins (1964-2009), we resolve the fine-scale structure and spatiotemporal behavior of active faults in the Andaman Sea. The new data reveal that back-arc extension is primarily accommodated at the Andaman Back-Arc Spreading Center (ABSC) at 10°, which hosted three major earthquake swarms in 1984, 2006, and 2009. Short-term spreading rates estimated from extensional moment tensors account for less than 10% of the long-term 3.0-3.8 cm/yr spreading rate, indicating that spreading by intrusion and the formation of new crust make up for the difference. A spatiotemporal analysis of the swarms and Coulomb-stress modeling show that dike intrusions are the primary driver for brittle failure in the ABSC. While spreading direction is close to ridge normal, it is oblique to the adjacent transforms. The resulting component of E-W extension across the transforms is expressed by deep basins on either side of the rift and a change to extensional faulting along the West Andaman fault system after the Mw = 9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004. A possible skew in slip vectors of earthquakes in the eastern part of the ABSC indicates an en-echelon arrangement of extensional structures, suggesting that the present segment geometry is not in equilibrium with current plate-motion demands, and thus the ridge experiences ongoing re-adjustment.

The model of response to viral haemorrhagic fevers of the National Institute for Infectious Diseases "Lazzaro Spallanzani".

PubMed

Armignacco, O; Lauria, F N; Puro, V; Macrì, G; Petrecchia, A; Ippolito, G

2001-01-01

Viral haemorrhagic fevers (VHF) are severe and life-threatening diseases caused by a range of viruses. However, only four agents of VHF are known to be readily capable of person-to-person spread: Lassa virus, Crimean/Congo haemorrhagic fever virus, Ebola and Marburg viruses. Diseases caused by these viruses are endemic only in few areas in the world, most notably Africa and some rural parts of the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Nonetheless, the increasing volume of international travel presents a greater likelihood for the importation of these infections or of suspected cases in non endemic countries. Four conditions can lead to the importation and to the subsequent recognition of VHF within Europe: 1) patients arriving as a result of a planned medical evacuation; 2) persons who became sick on route to their destination; 3) persons discovered ill when entering a country, for example during routine clinical examination at the airport; 4) persons becoming sick after their arrival. Public health implications and the risk of secondary spread of pathogens in the above reported circumstances are very different. Similarly, preparedness and response should vary. This paper summarizes the present knowledge on the four VHF capable of person-to-person spread, describes the high isolation area constructed at the Italian National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani in Rome to respond to the occurrence of VHF. A brief overview of procedures and equipment adopted is provided.

Calculating shock arrival in expansion tubes and shock tunnels using Bayesian changepoint analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Christopher M.; Bourke, Emily J.; Gildfind, David E.

2018-06-01

To understand the flow conditions generated in expansion tubes and shock tunnels, shock speeds are generally calculated based on shock arrival times at high-frequency wall-mounted pressure transducers. These calculations require that the shock arrival times are obtained accurately. This can be non-trivial for expansion tubes especially because pressure rises may be small and shock speeds high. Inaccurate shock arrival times can be a significant source of uncertainty. To help address this problem, this paper investigates two separate but complimentary techniques. Principally, it proposes using a Bayesian changepoint detection method to automatically calculate shock arrival, potentially reducing error and simplifying the shock arrival finding process. To compliment this, a technique for filtering the raw data without losing the shock arrival time is also presented and investigated. To test the validity of the proposed techniques, tests are performed using both a theoretical step change with different levels of noise and real experimental data. It was found that with conditions added to ensure that a real shock arrival time was found, the Bayesian changepoint analysis method was able to automatically find the shock arrival time, even for noisy signals.

An ESS treatment of the pattern of female arrival at the mating site in the yellow dung fly scathophaga stercoraria (L.)

PubMed

Reuter; Ward; Blanckenhorn

1998-12-07

In most previous work on the yellow dung fly Scathophaga stercoraria (L.), as on other species, adaptive explanations have been sought for male behaviour whereas female behaviour has not been examined in similar detail. Here, the arrival of females at the mating site, fresh cattle droppings, is investigated. While almost all males are present shortly after pat deposition females arrive at a low, decreasing rate over an interval of about 5 hours. We propose that the distribution of female arrival times represents a mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS), formed by different trade-offs between costs and benefits of early and late arrival. Early arrival could be favoured by advantages due to better conditions for oviposition, faster egg development of reduced larval competition. Late arrival could be favoured by negative effects on females of male-male competition being weaker later after deposition. Computer simulations with distributions of arrival times deviating from the natural one were performed to "measure" the costs for females arriving at different times. These costs were compared with estimated benefits corresponding to the females' arrival times. This procedure revealed that females coming to the pat later in a population of females arriving shortly after deposition would be favoured. In a population arriving according to a uniform distribution, early females would have fitness advantages. Thus, evolution should lead to an intermediate distribution of arrival times, as in nature, i.e. female arrival behaviour is probably adaptive. The simulations also revealed that the intensity of sexual selection though male-male competition is highest with the natural pattern of female arrival. Therefore, natural selection generating this pattern amplifies the intensity of male-male interaction as a by-product. Copyright 1998 Academic Press

Evaluation of potential gas clogging associated with managed aquifer recharge from a spreading basin, southwestern Utah, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heilweil, Victor M.; Marston, Thomas

2013-01-01

Sand Hollow Reservoir in southwestern Utah, USA, is operated for both surface-water storage and managed aquifer recharge via infiltration from surface basin spreading to the underlying Navajo Sandstone. The total volume of estimated recharge from 2002 through 2011 was 131 Mm3., resulting in groundwater levels rising as much as 40 m. Hydraulic and hydrochemical data from the reservoir and various monitoring wells in Sand Hollow were used to evaluate the timing and location or reservoir recharge moving through the aquifer, along either potential clogging from trapped gases in pore throats, siltation, or algal mats. Several hyrdochemical tracers indicated this recharge had arrived at four monitoring wells located within about 300 m of the reservoir by 2012. At these wells, peak total dissolved-gas pressures exceeded two atmospheres (>1,500 mm mercury) and dissolved oxygen approached three times atmospherically equilibrated concentrations (>25 mg/L). these field parameters indicate that large amounts of gas trapped in pore spaces beneath the water table have dissolved. Lesser but notable increases in these dissolved-gas parameters (without increases in other indicators such as chloride-to-bromide ratios) at monitoring wells farther away (>300 m) indicate moderate amounts of in-situ sir entrapment and dissolution caused by the rise in regional groundwater levels. This is confirmed by hydrochemical difference between these sites and wells closer to the reservoir where recharge had already arrived. As the reservoir was being filled by 2002, managed aquifer recharge rates were initially very high (1.5 x 10-4 cm/s) with the vadose zone becoming saturated beneath and surrounding the reservoir. These rates declined to less than 3.5 x 10-6 cm/s during 2008. The 2002-08 decrease was likely associated with a declining regional hydraulic gradient and clogging. Increasing recharge rates during mid-2009 through 2010 may have been partly caused by dissolution of air bubbles initially entrapped in the aquifer matrix. Theoretical gas dissolution rates, coupled with field evidence of a decline iin total dissolved-gas pressure and dissolved oxygen from nearby monitoring wells, support the timing of this gas dissipation.

Benefit Assessment of the Precision Departure Release Capability Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palopo, Kee; Chatterji, Gano B.; Lee, Hak-Tae

2011-01-01

A Precision Departure Release Capability concept is being evaluated by both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration as part of a larger goal of improving throughput, efficiency and capacity in integrated departure, arrival and surface operations. The concept is believed to have the potential of increasing flight efficiency and throughput by avoiding missing assigned slots and minimizing speed increase or path stretch to recover the slot. The main thrust of the paper is determining the impact of early and late departures from the departure runway when an aircraft has a slot assigned either at a meter fix or at the arrival airport. Results reported in the paper are for two scenarios. The first scenario considers flights out of Dallas/Fort Worth destined for Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta flying through the Meridian meter-fix in the Memphis Center with miles-in-trail constraints. The second scenario considers flights destined to George Bush Intercontinental/Houston Airport with specified airport arrival rate constraint. Results show that delay reduction can be achieved by allowing reasonable speed changes in scheduling. It was determined that the traffic volume between Dallas/Fort Worth and Atlanta via the Meridian fix is low and the departures times are spread enough that large departure schedule uncertainty can be tolerated. Flights can depart early or late within 90 minutes without accruing much more delay due to miles-in-trail constraint at the Meridian fix. In the Houston scenario, 808 arrivals from 174 airports were considered. Results show that delay experienced by the 16 Dallas/Fort Worth departures is higher if initial schedules of the remaining 792 flights are kept unaltered while they are rescheduled. Analysis shows that the probability of getting the initially assigned slot back after perturbation and rescheduling decreases with increasing standard deviation of the departure delay distributions. Results show that most Houston arrivals can be expected to be on time based on the assumed zero-mean Normal departure delay distributions achievable by Precision Departure Release Capability. In the current system, airport-departure delay, which is the sum of gate-departure delay and taxi-out delay, is observed at the airports. This delay acts as a bias, which can be reduced by Precision Departure Release Capability.

Epidemic Process over the Commute Network in a Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Yashima, Kenta; Sasaki, Akira

2014-01-01

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. PMID:24905831

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

Particle detection and non-detection in a quantum time of arrival measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sombillo, Denny Lane B., E-mail: dsombillo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Galapon, Eric A.

2016-01-15

The standard time-of-arrival distribution cannot reproduce both the temporal and the spatial profile of the modulus squared of the time-evolved wave function for an arbitrary initial state. In particular, the time-of-arrival distribution gives a non-vanishing probability even if the wave function is zero at a given point for all values of time. This poses a problem in the standard formulation of quantum mechanics where one quantizes a classical observable and uses its spectral resolution to calculate the corresponding distribution. In this work, we show that the modulus squared of the time-evolved wave function is in fact contained in one ofmore » the degenerate eigenfunctions of the quantized time-of-arrival operator. This generalizes our understanding of quantum arrival phenomenon where particle detection is not a necessary requirement, thereby providing a direct link between time-of-arrival quantization and the outcomes of the two-slit experiment. -- Highlights: •The time-evolved position density is contained in the standard TOA distribution. •Particle may quantum mechanically arrive at a given point without being detected. •The eigenstates of the standard TOA operator are linked to the two-slit experiment.« less

Analysis of the equilibrium trip cost accounting for the fuel cost in a single-lane traffic system without late arrival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Wang, Tao; Chen, Liang; Huang, Hai-Jun

2018-01-01

In this paper, we introduce the fuel cost into each commuter's trip cost, define a new trip cost without late arrival and its corresponding equilibrium state, and use a car-following model to explore the impacts of the fuel cost on each commuter's departure time, departure interval, arrival time, arrival interval, traveling time, early arrival time and trip cost at the above equilibrium state. The numerical results show that considering the fuel cost in each commuter's trip cost has positive impacts on his trip cost and fuel cost, and the traffic situation in the system without late arrival, i.e., each commuter should explicitly consider the fuel cost in his trip cost.

[Environmental drivers of emergence and spreading of Vibrio epidemics in South America].

PubMed

Gavilán, Ronnie G; Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime

2011-03-01

Vibrio cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus are the two Vibrio species with a major impact on human health. Diseases caused by both pathogens are acquiring increasing relevance due to their expansion at global scale. In this paper, we resume the ecological aspects associated with the arrival and spreading of infections caused by V. parahaemolyticus and V. cholerae in Peru from a South American perspective. Moreover, we discuss the similarities in the emergence in Peru of cholera cases in 1991 and V. parahaemolyticus infections in 1997. These constituted exceptional experiments to evaluate the relationships between the Vibrio epidemics and changes in the environment. The epidemic radiations of V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus constitute to clear examples supporting the oceanic dispersion of pathogenic vibrios and have enabled the identification of El Niño events as a potential mechanism for the spreading of diseases through the ocean.

Automatic pickup of arrival time of channel wave based on multi-channel constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bao-Li

2018-03-01

Accurately detecting the arrival time of a channel wave in a coal seam is very important for in-seam seismic data processing. The arrival time greatly affects the accuracy of the channel wave inversion and the computed tomography (CT) result. However, because the signal-to-noise ratio of in-seam seismic data is reduced by the long wavelength and strong frequency dispersion, accurately timing the arrival of channel waves is extremely difficult. For this purpose, we propose a method that automatically picks up the arrival time of channel waves based on multi-channel constraints. We first estimate the Jaccard similarity coefficient of two ray paths, then apply it as a weight coefficient for stacking the multichannel dispersion spectra. The reasonableness and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in an actual data application. Most importantly, the method increases the degree of automation and the pickup precision of the channel-wave arrival time.

The incorporation of fault zone head wave and direct wave secondary arrival times and arrival polarizations into seismic tomography: Application to the Parkfield, California area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennington, N. L.; Thurber, C. H.; Peng, Z.; Zhao, P.

2012-12-01

We present a 3D P-wave velocity (Vp) model of the Parkfield region that utilizes existing P-wave arrival time data, including fault zone head waves (FZHW), plus new data from direct wave secondary arrivals (DWSA). The first-arrival and DWSA travel times are obtained as the global and local minimum travel time paths, respectively. The inclusion of DWSA results in as much as a 10% increase in the across-fault velocity contrast for the Vp model at Parkfield relative to Thurber et al. (2006). Viewed along strike, three pronounced velocity contrast regions are observed: a pair of strong positive velocity contrasts (SW fast), one NW of the 1966 Parkfield hypocenter and the other SE of the 2004 Parkfield hypocenter, and a strong negative velocity contrast (NE fast) between the two hypocenters. The negative velocity contrast partially to entirely encompasses peak coseismic slip estimated in several slip models for the 2004 earthquake, suggesting that the negative velocity contrast played a part in defining the rupture patch of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. We expand on this work by modifying our seismic tomography algorithm to incorporate arrival polarizations (azimuths). Synthetic tests will be presented to demonstrate the improvements in velocity structure when arrival polarizations are incorporated. These tests will compare the synthetic model recovered when FZHW/DWSA arrivals as well as existing P-wave arrival time data are inverted to that recovered with the same dataset with the inclusion of arrival polarizations. We plan to extend this work to carry out a full scale seismic tomography/relocation inversion at Parkfield, CA utilizing arrival polarizations from all first-P arrivals, and FZHW/DWSA arrivals as well as existing P-wave arrival time data. This effort requires the determination of polarization data for all P-waves and FZHW's at Parkfield. To this end, we use changes in the arrival azimuth from fault normal to source-receiver direction to identify FZHW and DWSA arrivals. We also use an eigenvalue decomposition to determine the direction of the incoming wave field, and to measure the arrival azimuths. This work is supported by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program under grant numbers G11AP20027 and G11AP20028.

Visitation rates to the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore and the introduction of the non-native species Lymantria dispar (L.)

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Julie Van Stappen; Laura M. Blackburn

2011-01-01

The introduction of non-native species has accelerated due to increasing levels of global trade and travel, threatening the composition and function of ecosystems. Upon arrival and successful establishment, biological invaders begin to spread and often do so with considerable assistance from humans. Recreational areas can be especially prone to the problem of...

Human visitation rates to the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore and the introduction of the non-native species Lymantria dispar (L.)

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Julie Van Stappen; Laura M. Blackburn

2010-01-01

The introduction of non-native species has accelerated due to increasing levels of global trade and travel, threatening the composition and function of ecosystems. Upon arrival and successful establishment, biological invaders begin to spread and often do so with considerable assistance from humans. Recreational areas can be especially prone to the problem of...

Utilizing Situational Analysis to Demonstrate That American Missionaries Developed an Education System in Hawaii during the Nineteenth Century That Served Western Interest

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beyer, Carl

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to present an example of using research tools, involving multiple perspectives and situational analysis. Investigating the role of American missionaries in the spread of hegemony and colonization in the Kingdom of Hawaii between 1820 (the year the American missionaries arrived) and 1893 (the year Hawaiians lost their…

Delineation of Rupture Propagation of Large Earthquakes Using Source-Scanning Algorithm: A Control Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, H.; Shan, S.

2004-12-01

Determination of the rupture propagation of large earthquakes is important and of wide interest to the seismological research community. The conventional inversion method determines the distribution of slip at a grid of subfaults whose orientations are predefined. As a result, difference choices of fault geometry and dimensions often result in different solutions. In this study, we try to reconstruct the rupture history of an earthquake using the newly developed Source-Scanning Algorithm (SSA) without imposing any a priori constraints on the fault's orientation and dimension. The SSA identifies the distribution of seismic sources in two steps. First, it calculates the theoretical arrival times from all grid points inside the model space to all seismic stations by assuming an origin time. Then, the absolute amplitudes of the observed waveforms at the predicted arrival times are added to give the "brightness" of each time-space pair, and the brightest spots mark the locations of sources. The propagation of the rupture is depicted by the migration of the brightest spots throughout a prescribed time window. A series of experiments are conducted to test the resolution of the SSA inversion. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that seismometers should be placed as close as possible to the fault trace to give the best resolution in delineating rupture details, we found that the best results are obtained if the seismograms are recorded at a distance about half of the total rupture length away from the fault trace. This is especially true when the rupture duration is longer than ~10 s. A possible explanation is that the geometric spreading effects for waveforms from different segments of the rupture are about the same if the stations are sufficiently away from the fault trace, thus giving a uniform resolution to the entire rupture history.

Carbon isotope turnover as a measure of arrival time in migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

2009-01-01

Arrival time on breeding or non-breeding areas is of interest in many ecological studies exploring fitness consequences of migratory schedules. However, in most field studies, it is difficult to precisely assess arrival time of individuals. Here, we use carbon isotope turnover in avian blood as a technique to estimate arrival time for birds switching from one habitat or environment to another. Stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) in blood assimilate to a new equilibrium following a diet switch according to an exponential decay function. This relationship can be used to determine the time a diet switch occurred if δ13C of both the old and new diet are known. We used published data of captive birds to validate that this approach provides reliable estimates of the time since a diet switch within 1–3 weeks after the diet switch. We then explored the utility of this technique for King Eiders (Somateria spectabilis) arriving on terrestrial breeding grounds after wintering and migration at sea. We estimated arrival time on breeding grounds in northern Alaska (95% CI) from red blood cell δ13C turnover to be 4–9 June. This estimate overlapped with arrival time of birds from the same study site tracked with satellite transmitters (5–12 June). Therefore, we conclude that this method provides a simple yet reliable way to assess arrival time of birds moving between isotopically distinct environments.

Linking phenological events in migratory passerines with a changing climate: 50 years in the Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania.

PubMed

McDermott, Molly E; DeGroote, Lucas W

2017-01-01

Advanced timing of both seasonal migration and reproduction in birds has been strongly associated with a warming climate for many bird species. Phenological responses to climate linking these stages may ultimately impact fitness. We analyzed five decades of banding data from 17 migratory bird species to investigate 1) how spring arrival related to timing of breeding, 2) if the interval between arrival and breeding has changed with increasing spring temperatures, and 3) whether arrival timing or breeding timing best predicted local productivity. Four of 17 species, all mid- to long-distance migrants, hatched young earlier in years when migrants arrived earlier to the breeding grounds (~1:1 day advancement). The interval between arrival on breeding grounds and appearance of juveniles shortened with warmer spring temperatures for 12 species (1-6 days for every 1°C increase) and over time for seven species (1-8 days per decade), suggesting that some migratory passerines adapt to climate change by laying more quickly after arrival or reducing the time from laying to fledging. We found more support for the former, that the rate of reproductive advancement was higher than that for arrival in warm years. Timing of spring arrival and breeding were both poor predictors of avian productivity for most migrants analyzed. Nevertheless, we found evidence that fitness benefits may occur from shifts to earlier spring arrival for the multi-brooded Song Sparrow. Our results uniquely demonstrate that co-occurring avian species are phenologically plastic in their response to climate change on their breeding grounds. If migrants continue to show a weaker response to temperatures during migration than breeding, and the window between arrival and optimal breeding shortens further, biological constraints to plasticity may limit the ability of species to adapt successfully to future warming.

Large measles outbreak introduced by asylum seekers and spread among the insufficiently vaccinated resident population, Berlin, October 2014 to August 2015

PubMed Central

Werber, Dirk; Hoffmann, Alexandra; Santibanez, Sabine; Mankertz, Annette; Sagebiel, Daniel

2017-01-01

The largest measles outbreak in Berlin since 2001 occurred from October 2014 to August 2015. Overall, 1,344 cases were ascertained, 86% (with available information) unvaccinated, including 146 (12%) asylum seekers. Median age was 17 years (interquartile range: 4–29 years), 26% were hospitalised and a 1-year-old child died. Measles virus genotyping uniformly revealed the variant ‘D8-Rostov-Don’ and descendants. The virus was likely introduced by and initially spread among asylum seekers before affecting Berlin’s resident population. Among Berlin residents, the highest incidence was in children aged < 2 years, yet most cases (52%) were adults. Post-exposure vaccinations in homes for asylum seekers, not always conducted, occurred later (median: 7.5 days) than the recommended 72 hours after onset of the first case and reached only half of potential contacts. Asylum seekers should not only have non-discriminatory, equitable access to vaccination, they also need to be offered measles vaccination in a timely fashion, i.e. immediately upon arrival in the receiving country. Supplementary immunisation activities targeting the resident population, particularly adults, are urgently needed in Berlin. PMID:28857043

Social factors influencing hospital arrival time in acute ischemic stroke patients.

PubMed

Iosif, Christina; Papathanasiou, Mathilda; Staboulis, Eleftherios; Gouliamos, Athanasios

2012-04-01

This is a multi-center, hospital-based study aiming to estimate social factors influencing pre-hospital times of arrival in acute ischemic stroke, with a perspective of finding ways to reduce arrival time and to augment the number of patients eligible for intra-arterial thrombolysis. Acute ischemic stroke patients who presented at the emergency units of four major general public hospitals were registered. We assessed information concerning demographics, time of presentation, clinical situation, imaging, treatment, and socioeconomic factors. The sample was divided in two sub-samples, based on the time of arrival since onset of symptoms, and was statistically analyzed. During one calendar year (2005), 907 patients were registered. Among them 34.6% arrived in the first 6 h from symptom onset, 38.7% arrived between 6 and 24 h, 18.1% after 24 h and for 8.6% the time of onset was unknown. Younger age (P = 0.007), transfer with ambulatory service (Ρ = 0.002), living with a mate (Ρ = 0.004), and higher educational level (P < 0.005) were factors which correlated significantly with early arrival at the hospital. Instructing patients at high risk for stroke to live with a housemate appears beneficial for timely arrival at the hospital. The establishment of dedicated acute stroke call and transportation center should improve the percentage of early arrival. A national information campaign is needed to increase the level of awareness of the population concerning beneficial social behaviors and optimal reaction to symptoms of acute ischemic stroke.

Emergency department arrival times after acute ischemic stroke during the 1990s.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Dawn O; Broderick, Joseph P; Khoury, Jane; Flaherty, Matthew L; Woo, Daniel; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Pancioli, Arthur; Jauch, Edward; Miller, Rosie; Kissela, Brett M

2007-01-01

Only 8% of ischemic stroke (IS) patients are eligible for rt-PA, and the largest exclusion criterion is delayed time of presentation to the ED. We sought to investigate whether patients are arriving to the ED more quickly in 1999 than in 1993/94 within our large biracial population of 1.3 million. Using ICD-9 codes 430-436, we ascertained all stroke events that presented to a local ED within our population in 7/93-6/94 and again in 1999. Times were recorded as documented in the medical record. There were 1,792 IS patients that presented to an ED in 1993/94 and 1,973 in 1999. The percentage of patients with documented times arriving in under 3 h improved slightly in 1999 (26% vs. 23% in 93/94, P = 0.03), however, the percentage arriving in under 2 h did not. Blacks significantly improved in arrivals under 3 h: 26% in 1999 compared to 17% in 1993/94 (P = 0.01), while whites did not (26% vs. 25%, P = 0.29). In 1999, only 9% of patients arrived from 3-8 h after symptom onset, the large majority of times were either estimated, unknown, or >8 h. We found only marginal improvement in arrival times during the 1990s. In our population, blacks improved in early arrival after symptom onset, while whites did not. Very few patients arrive 3-8 h after onset; therefore expansion of the acute treatment time window to 8 h is unlikely to dramatically affect acute treatment of ischemic stroke.

Arrival and Departure Patterns of Public Sector Employees before and after Implementation of Flexitime.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ronen, Simcha

1981-01-01

Examined the effects of a flexible working hours schedule on the arrival and departure times of 162 public sector employees. Results indicated that workers, when scheduling their own workday, deviate only moderately from their preflexitime arrival/departure times; and they tend to develop relatively stable arrival/departure patterns. (Author/RC)

Modeling tracer transport in randomly heterogeneous porous media by nonlocal moment equations: Anomalous transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales-Casique, E.; Lezama-Campos, J. L.; Guadagnini, A.; Neuman, S. P.

2013-05-01

Modeling tracer transport in geologic porous media suffers from the corrupt characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrogeologic properties of the system and the incomplete knowledge of processes governing transport at multiple scales. Representations of transport dynamics based on a Fickian model of the kind considered in the advection-dispersion equation (ADE) fail to capture (a) the temporal variation associated with the rate of spreading of a tracer, and (b) the distribution of early and late arrival times which are often observed in field and/or laboratory scenarios and are considered as the signature of anomalous transport. Elsewhere we have presented exact stochastic moment equations to model tracer transport in randomly heterogeneous aquifers. We have also developed a closure scheme which enables one to provide numerical solutions of such moment equations at different orders of approximations. The resulting (ensemble) average and variance of concentration fields were found to display a good agreement against Monte Carlo - based simulation results for mildly heterogeneous (or well-conditioned strongly heterogeneous) media. Here we explore the ability of the moment equations approach to describe the distribution of early arrival times and late time tailing effects which can be observed in Monte-Carlo based breakthrough curves (BTCs) of the (ensemble) mean concentration. We show that BTCs of mean resident concentration calculated at a fixed space location through higher-order approximations of moment equations display long tailing features of the kind which is typically associated with anomalous transport behavior and are not represented by an ADE model with constant dispersive parameter, such as the zero-order approximation.

Africanized bees extend their distribution in California.

PubMed

Lin, Wei; McBroome, Jakob; Rehman, Mahwish; Johnson, Brian R

2018-01-01

Africanized honey bees (Apis mellifera) arrived in the western hemisphere in the 1950s and quickly spread north reaching California in the 1990s. These bees are highly defensive and somewhat more difficult to manage for commercial purposes than the European honey bees traditionally kept. The arrival of these bees and their potentially replacing European bees over much of the state is thus of great concern. After a 25 year period of little systematic sampling, a recent small scale study found Africanized honey bees in the Bay Area of California, far north of their last recorded distribution. The purpose of the present study was to expand this study by conducting more intensive sampling of bees from across northern California. We found Africanized honey bees as far north as Napa and Sacramento. We also found Africanized bees in all counties south of these counties. Africanized honey bees were particularly abundant in parts of the central valley and Monterey. This work suggests the northern spread of Africanized honey bees may not have stopped. They may still be moving north at a slow rate, although due to the long gaps in sampling it is currently impossible to tell for certain. Future work should routinely monitor the distribution of these bees to distinguish between these two possibilities.

Crustal Thickness on the South East Indian Ridge from OBH data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolstoy, M.; Cochran, J. R.; Carbotte, S. M.; Floyd, J. S.

2002-12-01

Seismic reflection and refraction data were collected on the intermediate-rate spreading South East Indian Ridge during December 2001 and January 2002 aboard the RV Ewing. A total of six lines of Ocean Bottom Hydrophone (OBH) refraction data were collected along four segments with contrasting ridge axis morphology. All lines were shot ridge parallel, with four lines on-axis, and two lines approximately 20 km off-axis. Each line used four OBHs and the line lengths varied between 102 km and 124 km, depending on the length of each ridge segment. For the two western most segments, an axial magma chamber is observed with crustal arrivals disappearing or being significantly delayed in the 15-20 km range. This indicates a magma chamber deeper than those observed on the faster spreading East Pacific Rise. Off-axis in this area clear crustal arrivals are seen out to 40-50 km. This indicates relatively thick crust in this most inflated of the sections studied, consistent with a higher magma supply. The two eastern most segments have on-axis lines only, and both of these indicate relatively thin crust. This is consistent with the more magma starved character of the bathymetry in these areas. Data will be presented, along with preliminary crustal velocity and thickness models.

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC/SWRC from 2010-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jian, L. K.

2017-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements near Earth, STEREO-A and STEREO-B for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B and we observed an arrival (hit), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

CAT-PUMA: CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

2018-04-01

CAT-PUMA (CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms) quickly and accurately predicts the arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) of CME arrival time. The software was trained via detailed analysis of CME features and solar wind parameters using 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full-halo CMEs and uses algorithms of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to make its predictions, which can be made within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME.

Shear wave arrival time estimates correlate with local speckle pattern.

PubMed

Mcaleavey, Stephen A; Osapoetra, Laurentius O; Langdon, Jonathan

2015-12-01

We present simulation and phantom studies demonstrating a strong correlation between errors in shear wave arrival time estimates and the lateral position of the local speckle pattern in targets with fully developed speckle. We hypothesize that the observed arrival time variations are largely due to the underlying speckle pattern, and call the effect speckle bias. Arrival time estimation is a key step in quantitative shear wave elastography, performed by tracking tissue motion via cross-correlation of RF ultrasound echoes or similar methods. Variations in scatterer strength and interference of echoes from scatterers within the tracking beam result in an echo that does not necessarily describe the average motion within the beam, but one favoring areas of constructive interference and strong scattering. A swept-receive image, formed by fixing the transmit beam and sweeping the receive aperture over the region of interest, is used to estimate the local speckle pattern. Metrics for the lateral position of the speckle are found to correlate strongly (r > 0.7) with the estimated shear wave arrival times both in simulations and in phantoms. Lateral weighting of the swept-receive pattern improved the correlation between arrival time estimates and speckle position. The simulations indicate that high RF echo correlation does not equate to an accurate shear wave arrival time estimate-a high correlation coefficient indicates that motion is being tracked with high precision, but the location tracked is uncertain within the tracking beam width. The presence of a strong on-axis speckle is seen to imply high RF correlation and low bias. The converse does not appear to be true-highly correlated RF echoes can still produce biased arrival time estimates. The shear wave arrival time bias is relatively stable with variations in shear wave amplitude and sign (-20 μm to 20 μm simulated) compared with the variation with different speckle realizations obtained along a given tracking vector. We show that the arrival time bias is weakly dependent on shear wave amplitude compared with the variation with axial position/ local speckle pattern. Apertures of f/3 to f/8 on transmit and f/2 and f/4 on receive were simulated. Arrival time error and correlation with speckle pattern are most strongly determined by the receive aperture.

Shear Wave Arrival Time Estimates Correlate with Local Speckle Pattern

PubMed Central

McAleavey, Stephen A.; Osapoetra, Laurentius O.; Langdon, Jonathan

2016-01-01

We present simulation and phantom studies demonstrating a strong correlation between errors in shear wave arrival time estimates and the lateral position of the local speckle pattern in targets with fully developed speckle. We hypothesize that the observed arrival time variations are largely due to the underlying speckle pattern, and call the effect speckle bias. Arrival time estimation is a key step in quantitative shear wave elastography, performed by tracking tissue motion via cross correlation of RF ultrasound echoes or similar methods. Variations in scatterer strength and interference of echoes from scatterers within the tracking beam result in an echo that does not necessarily describe the average motion within the beam, but one favoring areas of constructive interference and strong scattering. A swept-receive image, formed by fixing the transmit beam and sweeping the receive aperture over the region of interest, is used to estimate the local speckle pattern. Metrics for the lateral position of the speckle are found to correlate strongly (r>0.7) with the estimated shear wave arrival times both in simulations and in phantoms. Lateral weighting of the swept-receive pattern improved the correlation between arrival time estimates and speckle position. The simulations indicate that high RF echo correlation does not equate to an accurate shear wave arrival time estimate – a high correlation coefficient indicates that motion is being tracked with high precision, but the location tracked is uncertain within the tracking beam width. The presence of a strong on-axis speckle is seen to imply high RF correlation and low bias. The converse does not appear to be true – highly correlated RF echoes can still produce biased arrival time estimates. The shear wave arrival time bias is relatively stable with variations in shear wave amplitude and sign (−20 μm to 20 μm simulated) compared to the variation with different speckle realizations obtained along a given tracking vector. We show that the arrival time bias is weakly dependent on shear wave amplitude compared to the variation with axial position/local speckle pattern. Apertures of f/3 to f/8 on transmit and f/2 and f/4 on receive were simulated. Arrival time error and correlation with speckle pattern are most strongly determined by the receive aperture. PMID:26670847

Assessing Seasonal Risks for the Introduction and Mosquito-borne Spread of Zika Virus in Europe.

PubMed

Rocklöv, Joacim; Quam, Mikkel Brandon; Sudre, Bertrand; German, Matthew; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Brady, Oliver; Bogoch, Isaac I; Liu-Helmersson, Jing; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Semenza, Jan C; Ong, Mark; Aaslav, Kaja Kaasik; Khan, Kamran

2016-07-01

The explosive Zika virus epidemic in the Americas is amplifying spread of this emerging pathogen into previously unaffected regions of the world, including Europe (Gulland, 2016), where local populations are immunologically naïve. As summertime approaches in the northern hemisphere, Aedes mosquitoes in Europe may find suitable climatic conditions to acquire and subsequently transmit Zika virus from viremic travellers to local populations. While Aedes albopictus has proven to be a vector for the transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Europe (Delisle et al., 2015; ECDC, n.d.) there is growing experimental and ecological evidence to suggest that it may also be competent for Zika virus(Chouin-Carneiro et al., 2016; Grard et al., 2014; Li et al., 2012; Wong et al., 2013). Here we analyze and overlay the monthly flows of airline travellers arriving into European cities from Zika affected areas across the Americas, the predicted monthly estimates of the basic reproduction number of Zika virus in areas where Aedes mosquito populations reside in Europe (Aedes aegypti in Madeira, Portugal and Ae. albopictus in continental Europe), and human populations living within areas where mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus may be possible. We highlight specific geographic areas and timing of risk for Zika virus introduction and possible spread within Europe to inform the efficient use of human disease surveillance, vector surveillance and control, and public education resources. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fossil and genomic evidence constrains the timing of bison arrival in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froese, Duane; Stiller, Mathias; Heintzman, Peter D.; Reyes, Alberto V.; Zazula, Grant D.; Soares, André E. R.; Meyer, Matthias; Hall, Elizabeth; Jensen, Britta J. L.; Arnold, Lee J.; MacPhee, Ross D. E.; Shapiro, Beth

2017-03-01

The arrival of bison in North America marks one of the most successful large-mammal dispersals from Asia within the last million years, yet the timing and nature of this event remain poorly determined. Here, we used a combined paleontological and paleogenomic approach to provide a robust timeline for the entry and subsequent evolution of bison within North America. We characterized two fossil-rich localities in Canada’s Yukon and identified the oldest well-constrained bison fossil in North America, a 130,000-y-old steppe bison, Bison cf. priscus. We extracted and sequenced mitochondrial genomes from both this bison and from the remains of a recently discovered, ˜120,000-y-old giant long-horned bison, Bison latifrons, from Snowmass, Colorado. We analyzed these and 44 other bison mitogenomes with ages that span the Late Pleistocene, and identified two waves of bison dispersal into North America from Asia, the earliest of which occurred ˜195-135 thousand y ago and preceded the morphological diversification of North American bison, and the second of which occurred during the Late Pleistocene, ˜45-21 thousand y ago. This chronological arc establishes that bison first entered North America during the sea level lowstand accompanying marine isotope stage 6, rejecting earlier records of bison in North America. After their invasion, bison rapidly colonized North America during the last interglaciation, spreading from Alaska through continental North America; they have been continuously resident since then.

Fossil and genomic evidence constrains the timing of bison arrival in North America

PubMed Central

Stiller, Mathias; Zazula, Grant D.; Meyer, Matthias; Hall, Elizabeth; Jensen, Britta J. L.; Arnold, Lee J.

2017-01-01

The arrival of bison in North America marks one of the most successful large-mammal dispersals from Asia within the last million years, yet the timing and nature of this event remain poorly determined. Here, we used a combined paleontological and paleogenomic approach to provide a robust timeline for the entry and subsequent evolution of bison within North America. We characterized two fossil-rich localities in Canada’s Yukon and identified the oldest well-constrained bison fossil in North America, a 130,000-y-old steppe bison, Bison cf. priscus. We extracted and sequenced mitochondrial genomes from both this bison and from the remains of a recently discovered, ∼120,000-y-old giant long-horned bison, Bison latifrons, from Snowmass, Colorado. We analyzed these and 44 other bison mitogenomes with ages that span the Late Pleistocene, and identified two waves of bison dispersal into North America from Asia, the earliest of which occurred ∼195–135 thousand y ago and preceded the morphological diversification of North American bison, and the second of which occurred during the Late Pleistocene, ∼45–21 thousand y ago. This chronological arc establishes that bison first entered North America during the sea level lowstand accompanying marine isotope stage 6, rejecting earlier records of bison in North America. After their invasion, bison rapidly colonized North America during the last interglaciation, spreading from Alaska through continental North America; they have been continuously resident since then. PMID:28289222

Fossil and genomic evidence constrains the timing of bison arrival in North America.

PubMed

Froese, Duane; Stiller, Mathias; Heintzman, Peter D; Reyes, Alberto V; Zazula, Grant D; Soares, André E R; Meyer, Matthias; Hall, Elizabeth; Jensen, Britta J L; Arnold, Lee J; MacPhee, Ross D E; Shapiro, Beth

2017-03-28

The arrival of bison in North America marks one of the most successful large-mammal dispersals from Asia within the last million years, yet the timing and nature of this event remain poorly determined. Here, we used a combined paleontological and paleogenomic approach to provide a robust timeline for the entry and subsequent evolution of bison within North America. We characterized two fossil-rich localities in Canada's Yukon and identified the oldest well-constrained bison fossil in North America, a 130,000-y-old steppe bison, Bison cf. priscus We extracted and sequenced mitochondrial genomes from both this bison and from the remains of a recently discovered, ∼120,000-y-old giant long-horned bison, Bison latifrons , from Snowmass, Colorado. We analyzed these and 44 other bison mitogenomes with ages that span the Late Pleistocene, and identified two waves of bison dispersal into North America from Asia, the earliest of which occurred ∼195-135 thousand y ago and preceded the morphological diversification of North American bison, and the second of which occurred during the Late Pleistocene, ∼45-21 thousand y ago. This chronological arc establishes that bison first entered North America during the sea level lowstand accompanying marine isotope stage 6, rejecting earlier records of bison in North America. After their invasion, bison rapidly colonized North America during the last interglaciation, spreading from Alaska through continental North America; they have been continuously resident since then.

The Effect of Ionospheric Models on Electromagnetic Pulse Locations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fenimore, Edward E.; Triplett, Laurie A.

2014-07-01

Locations of electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) determined by time-of-arrival (TOA) often have outliers with significantly larger errors than expected. In the past, these errors were thought to arise from high order terms in the Appleton-Hartree equation. We simulated 1000 events randomly spread around the Earth into a constellation of 22 GPS satellites. We used four different ionospheres: “simple” where the time delay goes as the inverse of the frequency-squared, “full Appleton-Hartree”, the “BobRD integrals” and a full raytracing code. The simple and full Appleton-Hartree ionospheres do not show outliers whereas the BobRD and raytracing do. This strongly suggests that the causemore » of the outliers is not additional terms in the Appleton-Hartree equation, but rather is due to the additional path length due to refraction. A method to fix the outliers is suggested based on fitting a time to the delays calculated at the 5 GPS frequencies with BobRD and simple ionospheres. The difference in time is used as a correction to the TOAs.« less

Computer Programs for the AUSEX (Aircraft Undersea Sound Experiment) Air-Water Acoustic Propagation Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-01-28

source-receiver geometry dynamics. For a given time instant, each of the subroutines outputs time variables ( emission time, arrival time...transmission loss, depression/elevation and azimuthal arrival angles, received frequency and range variables (range at emission time, range at arrival time...with the wind equal 24.5 kts. In the double bottom bounce regions, the emission angles (at the virtual surface source) are moderately small (15

First LOCSMITH locations of deep moonquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hempel, S.; Knapmeyer, M.; Sens-Schönfelder, C.; Oberst, J.

2008-09-01

Introduction Several thousand seismic events were recorded by the Apollo seismic network from 19691977. Different types of events can be distinguished: meteoroid impacts, thermal quakes and internally caused moonquakes. The latter subdivide into shallow (100 to 300km) and deep moonquakes (700 to 1100km), which are by far the most common events. The deep quakes would be no immediate danger to inhabitated stations on the Earth's Moon because of their relatively low magnitude and great depth. However, they bear important information on lunar structure and evolution, and their distribution probably reflects their source mechanism. In this study, we reinvestigate location patterns of deep lunar quakes. LOCSMITH The core of this study is a new location method (LOCSMITH, [1]). This algorithm uses time intervals rather than time instants as input, which contain the dedicated arrival with probability 1. LOCSMITH models and compares theoretical and actual travel times on a global scale and uses an adaptive grid to search source locations compatible with all observations. The output is a set of all possible hypocenters for the considered region of repeating, tidally triggered moonquake activity, called clusters. The shape and size of these sets gives a better estimate of the location uncertainty than the formal standard deviations returned by classical methods. This is used for grading of deep moonquake clusters according to the currently available data quality. Classification of deep moonquakes As first step, we establish a reciprocal dependence of size and shape of LOCSMITH location clouds on number of arrivals. Four different shapes are recognized, listed here in an order corresponding to decreasing spatial resolution: 1. "Balls", which are well defined and relatively small types of sets resembling the commonly assumed error ellipsoid. These are found in the best cases with many observations. Locations in this shape are obtained for clusters 1, 18 or 33, these were already well located by earlier works [2,3]. 2. The next best shape of a location set is the "banana" as found for clusters 5, 39 or 53 [Fig. 1]. In this case, only limited depth resolution is available, and the solution spreads over a large volume. The size of a "banana" could be minimized by either finding a not yet discovered shear wave arrival or estimating a S arrival time interval by considering the coda instead of a clear S arrival. 3. Shape of clouds we call "cones" are formed by clusters for which no compressional wave arrivals, but three S arrivals were picked. Such solutions were found for clusters 35, 201 or 218 [Fig. 2]. A depth limitation is given only by the surface of the Moon's far side. In previous works, locations of these clusters were usually determined with a fixed depth, thus neglecting all depth uncertainty [2]. 4. The fourth and worst class shows a "disc"like shape with no depth resolution and almost no latitude resolution. Clusters of this class, like 4, 23 or 43, were not located so far. From class 1 ("ball") to 4 ("disc") the amount of possible hypocenters increases. So we also found a correlation between size and shape of volumes containing possible hypocenter solutions. Aim We classified all clusters according to the solution set scheme by using arrival times of [2] with an estimated error of ±10s as input for LOCSMITH. We reprocess selected clusters of each class to come up with the special requirements and possibilities of this new location method. As said above, one of the requirements of LOCSMITH is the definition of a time interval instead of a time instant for input, and an interesting option is using an estimated S arrival time interval derived from coda and scattering model, lacking a clear S arrival. We try to find fully automated methods for each processing step, dependent on the quality of data. Methods For despiking we merged methods by [4] and [5] and achieve very good results even for worst case as already presented in [6]. Prior to stacking we developed a complex multiparameter correlation algorithm to calculate the optimum time shift. Results We present relocations of selected deep moonquakes in context of data availability and quality. Previous locations are often contained in our location clouds, but realistic location uncertainties allow large deviations from the best fitting solutions, including locations on the far side of the Moon. Perspective By developing new methods for data processing and using the LOCSMITH locating algorithm we hope to reduce the location uncertainty sufficiently to make sure that all sources are on the near side, or to prove a far side origin of some of them. This would answer questions of hemispheric symmetry of lunar deep seismicity and the Moon's internal structure. References [1] Knapmeyer (2008) accepted to GJI. [2] Nakamura (2005) JGR, 110, E01001. [3] Lognonné (2003) EPSL, 211, 2744. [4] Bulow (2005) JGR, 110, E10003. [5] Sonnemann (2005) EGU05A07960. [6] Hempel, Knapmeyer, Oberst (2008) EGU2008A07989.

Timing the Random and Anomalous Arrival of Particles in a Geiger Counter with GPS Devices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanco, F.; La Rocca, P.; Riggi, F.; Riggi, S.

2008-01-01

The properties of the arrival time distribution of particles in a detector have been studied by the use of a small Geiger counter, with a GPS device to tag the event time. The experiment is intended to check the basic properties of the random arrival time distribution between successive events and to simulate the investigations carried out by…

Number needed to eat: pizza and resident conference attendance.

PubMed

Cosimini, Michael J; Mackintosh, Liza; Chang, Todd P

2016-12-01

The didactic conference is a common part of the resident education curriculum. Given the demands of clinical responsibilities and restrictions on duty hours, maximising education is a challenge faced by all residency programmes. To date, little research exists with respect to how the provision of complimentary food affects physician and resident conference attendance. The objective of this study was to determine whether complimentary food improves resident arrival times and attendance at educational conferences and, furthermore, to test whether this provision is a potentially cost-effective tool for improving education. A retrospective review of 36 resident educational Friday noon conferences, including 1043 resident arrivals, was performed. Data were analysed for total attendance, arrival times, number needed to eat (NNE) and the percentage of residents arriving on time, and compared between days on which food was and was not provided. Median attendance was 3.7% higher (p = 0.04) on days on which food was provided, at a cost of US$46 for each additional resident in attendance. Arrival times were also statistically significantly improved when food was provided, with a median improvement of 0.7 minutes (p = 0.02) and an 11.0% increase in on-time arrivals (p < 0.001). The NNE was 10.6. Complimentary food improves both attendance and arrival times by a small, but statistically significant, degree. The provision of complimentary food can be considered as an incentive for attendance and on-time arrival at didactic educational sessions, although more cost-effective modalities may exist. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

Jemaah Islamiyah: Lessons From Combating Islamist Terrorism In Indonesia

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

Indonesian Islam formed within the existing cultures and religions . As Taylor writes in his preface to The Illusion of an Islamic State, as Islam spread...common ground between Islam and the old religions based on tolerance and mysticism.4 Sufism, a form of Islamic mysticism, also played heavily in the...the separation of religion from politics. Wahhabi ideology and doctrine first arrived in Indonesia in the 1800s, brought by hajjis returning from

Mitigating Photon Jitter in Optical PPM Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moision, Bruce

2008-01-01

A theoretical analysis of photon-arrival jitter in an optical pulse-position-modulation (PPM) communication channel has been performed, and now constitutes the basis of a methodology for designing receivers to compensate so that errors attributable to photon-arrival jitter would be minimized or nearly minimized. Photon-arrival jitter is an uncertainty in the estimated time of arrival of a photon relative to the boundaries of a PPM time slot. Photon-arrival jitter is attributable to two main causes: (1) receiver synchronization error [error in the receiver operation of partitioning time into PPM slots] and (2) random delay between the time of arrival of a photon at a detector and the generation, by the detector circuitry, of a pulse in response to the photon. For channels with sufficiently long time slots, photon-arrival jitter is negligible. However, as durations of PPM time slots are reduced in efforts to increase throughputs of optical PPM communication channels, photon-arrival jitter becomes a significant source of error, leading to significant degradation of performance if not taken into account in design. For the purpose of the analysis, a receiver was assumed to operate in a photon- starved regime, in which photon counts follow a Poisson distribution. The analysis included derivation of exact equations for symbol likelihoods in the presence of photon-arrival jitter. These equations describe what is well known in the art as a matched filter for a channel containing Gaussian noise. These equations would yield an optimum receiver if they could be implemented in practice. Because the exact equations may be too complex to implement in practice, approximations that would yield suboptimal receivers were also derived.

A low body temperature on arrival at hospital following out-of-hospital-cardiac-arrest is associated with increased mortality in the TTM-study.

PubMed

Hovdenes, Jan; Røysland, Kjetil; Nielsen, Niklas; Kjaergaard, Jesper; Wanscher, Michael; Hassager, Christian; Wetterslev, Jørn; Cronberg, Tobias; Erlinge, David; Friberg, Hans; Gasche, Yvan; Horn, Janneke; Kuiper, Michael; Pellis, Tommaso; Stammet, Pascal; Wise, Matthew P; Åneman, Anders; Bugge, Jan Frederik

2016-10-01

To investigate the association of temperature on arrival to hospital after out-of-hospital-cardiac arrest (OHCA) with the primary outcome of mortality, in the targeted temperature management (TTM) trial. The TTM trial randomized 939 patients to TTM at 33 or 36°C for 24h. Patients were categorized according to their recorded body temperature on arrival and also categorized to groups of patients being actively cooled or passively rewarmed. OHCA patients having a temperature ≤34.0°C on arrival at hospital had a significantly higher mortality compared to the OHCA patients with a higher temperature on arrival. A low body temperature on arrival was associated with a longer time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and duration of transport time to hospital. Patients who were actively cooled or passively rewarmed during the first 4h had similar mortality. In a multivariate logistic regression model mortality was significantly related to time from OHCA to ROSC, time from OHCA to advanced life support (ALS), age, sex and first registered rhythm. None of the temperature related variables (included the TTM-groups) were significantly related to mortality. OHCA patients with a temperature ≤34.0°C on arrival have a higher mortality than patients with a temperature ≥34.1°C on arrival. A low temperature on arrival is associated with a long time to ROSC. Temperature changes and TTM-groups were not associated with mortality in a regression model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparing the “Soil”: The Premetastatic Niche

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Rosandra N.; Rafii, Shahin; Lyden, David

2010-01-01

Current focus on cancer metastasis has centered on the intrinsic factors regulating the cell autonomous homing of the tumor cells to the metastatic site. Specific up-regulation of fibronectin and clustering of bone marrow–derived cellular infiltrates coexpressing matrix metalloproteinases in distant tissue sites before tumor cell arrival are proving to be indispensable for the initial stages of metastasis. These bone marrow–derived hematopoietic progenitors that express vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1 mobilize in response to the unique array of growth factors produced by the primary tumor. Their arrival in distant sites represents early changes in the local microenvironment, termed the “premetastatic niche,” which dictate the pattern of metastatic spread. Focus on the early cellular and molecular events in cancer dissemination and selectivity will likely lead to new approaches to detect and prevent metastasis at its earliest inception. PMID:17145848

Perturbation analysis of queueing systems with a time-varying arrival rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cassandras, Christos G.; Pan, Jie

1991-01-01

The authors consider an M/G/1 queuing with a time-varying arrival rate. The objective is to obtain infinitesimal perturbation analysis (IPA) gradient estimates for various performance measures of interest with respect to certain system parameters. In particular, the authors consider the mean system time over n arrivals and an arrival rate alternating between two values. By choosing a convenient sample path representation of this system, they derive an unbiased IPA gradient estimator which, however, is not consistent, and investigate the nature of this problem.

Sex-Specific Arrival Times on the Breeding Grounds: Hybridizing Migratory Skuas Provide Empirical Support for the Role of Sex Ratios.

PubMed

Lisovski, Simeon; Fröhlich, Anne; von Tersch, Matthew; Klaassen, Marcel; Peter, Hans-Ulrich; Ritz, Markus S

2016-04-01

In migratory animals, protandry (earlier arrival of males on the breeding grounds) prevails over protogyny (females preceding males). In theory, sex differences in timing of arrival should be driven by the operational sex ratio, shifting toward protogyny in female-biased populations. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is, to date, lacking. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed arrival data from three populations of the long-distance migratory south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki). These populations differed in their operational sex ratio caused by the unidirectional hybridization of male south polar skuas with female brown skuas (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi). We found that arrival times were protandrous in allopatry, shifting toward protogyny in female-biased populations when breeding in sympatry. This unique observation is consistent with theoretical predictions that sex-specific arrival times should be influenced by sex ratio and that protogyny should be observed in populations with female-biased operational sex ratio.

Reproductive strategies of northern geese: Why wait?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Craig R.; Bollinger, K.S.; Densmore, R.V.; Rothe, T.C.; Petrula, M.J.; Takekawa, John Y.; Orthmeyer, D.L.

2007-01-01

Migration and reproductive strategies in waterbirds are tightly linked, with timing of arrival and onset of nesting having important consequences for reproductive success. Whether migratory waterbirds are capital or income breeders is predicated by their spring migration schedule, how long they are on breeding areas before nesting, and how adapted they are to exploiting early spring foods at northern breeding areas. However, for most species, we know little about individual migration schedules, arrival times, and duration of residence on breeding areas before nesting. To document these relationships in a northern nesting goose, we radiotracked winter-marked Tule Greater White-fronted Geese (Anser albifrons elgasi; hereafter “Tule Geese”; n = 116) from the time of their arrival in Alaska through nesting. Tule Geese arrived on coastal feeding areas in mid-April and moved to nesting locations a week later. They initiated nests 15 days (range: 6–24 days) after arrival, a period roughly equivalent to the duration of rapid follicle growth. Tule Geese that arrived the earliest were more likely to nest than geese that arrived later; early arrivals also spent more time on the breeding grounds and nested earlier than geese that arrived later. The length of the prenesting period was comparable to that of other populations of this species, but longer than for goose species that initiate rapid follicle growth before arrival on the breeding grounds. We suggest that Tule Geese nesting in more temperate climates are more likely to delay breeding to exploit local food resources than Arctic-nesting species that may be constrained by short growing seasons.

[Zika virus: Another emerging arbovirus in Venezuela?].

PubMed

Valero Nereida

2015-09-01

Current health conditions of Venezuela, together with the tropical proliferation of different types of Aedes (aegypti and albopictus), suggest the arrival to this country of ZIKA virus (ZIKV). The Pan American Health Organization urges Latin American countries to take measures to prevent the ZIKV entry and advises that these measures must be designed to detect the introduction of ZIKV in an area, track its spread and actively monitor the disease. In Venezuela and other Latin-American countries, where endemicity is high for other arboviruses such as dengue arid chikungunya, health authorities should strengthen their surveillance systems to detect early and timely introduction of ZIKV ap.d refine diagnostic methods to confirm the infection rate; however, the high incidence of cases due those viral agents reflects weakened and poorly timed insensitive monitoring systems, as well as, poor vector control measures, arising the questions: will this arbovirus pop in our country, will it set as the other as edemicepidemic and lead to alter their clinical behavior and severity of the disease?

Directed Field Ionization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregoric, Vincent C.; Kang, Xinyue; Liu, Zhimin Cheryl; Rowley, Zoe A.; Carroll, Thomas J.; Noel, Michael W.

2017-04-01

Selective field ionization is an important experimental technique used to study the state distribution of Rydberg atoms. This is achieved by applying a steadily increasing electric field, which successively ionizes more tightly bound states. An atom prepared in an energy eigenstate encounters many avoided Stark level crossings on the way to ionization. As it traverses these avoided crossings, its amplitude is split among multiple different states, spreading out the time resolved electron ionization signal. By perturbing the electric field ramp, we can change how the atoms traverse the avoided crossings, and thus alter the shape of the ionization signal. We have used a genetic algorithm to evolve these perturbations in real time in order to arrive at a target ionization signal shape. This process is robust to large fluctuations in experimental conditions. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants No. 1607335 and No. 1607377 and used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), which is supported by National Science Foundation Grant Number OCI-1053575.

Simulation to assess the efficacy of US airport entry scrreening of passengers for pandemic influenza

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mcmahon, Benjamin

2009-01-01

We present our methodology and stochastic discrete-event simulation developed to model the screening of passengers for pandemic influenza at the US port-of-entry airports. Our model uniquely combines epidemiology modelling, evolving infected states and conditions of passengers over time, and operational considerations of screening in a single simulation. The simulation begins with international aircraft arrivals to the US. Passengers are then randomly assigned to one of three states -- not infected, infected with pandemic influenza and infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers then pass through various screening layers (i.e. pre-departure screening, en route screening, primary screening and secondary screening) and ultimatelymore » exit the system. We track the status of each passenger over time, with a special emphasis on false negatives (i.e. passengers infected with pandemic influenza, but are not identified as such) as these passengers pose a significant threat as they could unknowingly spread the pandemic influenza virus throughout our nation.« less

Analysis of multipath channel fading techniques in wireless communication systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahender, Kommabatla; Kumar, Tipparti Anil; Ramesh, K. S.

2018-04-01

Multipath fading occurs in any environment where there is multipath propagation and there is some movement of elements within the radio communications system. This may include the radio transmitter or receiver position, or in the elements that give rise to the reflections. The multipath fading can often be relatively deep, i.e. the signals fade completely away, whereas at other times the fading may not cause the signal to fall below a useable strength. Multipath fading may also cause distortion to the radio signal. As the various paths that can be taken by the signals vary in length, the signal transmitted at a particular instance will arrive at the receiver over a spread of times. This can cause problems with phase distortion and inter symbol interference when data transmissions are made. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate features within the radio communications system that enables the effects of these problems to be minimized. This paper analyses the effects of various types of multipath fading in wireless transmission system.

Fast first arrival picking algorithm for noisy microseismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dowan; Byun, Joongmoo; Lee, Minho; Choi, Jihoon; Kim, Myungsun

2017-01-01

Most microseismic events occur during hydraulic fracturing. Thus microseismic monitoring, by recording seismic waves from microseismic events, is one of the best methods for locating the positions of hydraulic fractures. However, since microseismic events have very low energy, the data often have a low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N ratio) and it is not easy to pick the first arrival time. In this study, we suggest a new fast picking method optimised for noisy data using cross-correlation and stacking. In this method, a reference trace is selected and the time differences between the first arrivals of the reference trace and those of the other traces are computed by cross-correlation. Then, all traces are aligned with the reference trace by time shifting, and the aligned traces are summed together to produce a stacked reference trace that has a considerably improved S/N ratio. After the first arrival time of the stacked reference trace is picked, the first arrival time of each trace is calculated automatically using the time differences obtained in the cross-correlation process. In experiments with noisy synthetic data and field data, this method produces more reliable results than the traditional method, which picks the first arrival time of each noisy trace separately. In addition, the computation time is dramatically reduced.

Timing of initial arrival at the breeding site predicts age at first reproduction in a long-lived migratory bird

PubMed Central

Becker, Peter H.; Dittmann, Tobias; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter; Limmer, Bente; Ludwig, Sonja C.; Bauch, Christina; Braasch, Alexander; Wendeln, Helmut

2008-01-01

In long-lived vertebrates, individuals generally visit potential breeding areas or populations during one or more seasons before reproducing for the first time. During these years of prospecting, they select a future breeding site, colony, or mate and improve various skills and their physical condition to meet the requirements of reproduction. One precondition of successful reproduction is arrival in time on the breeding grounds. Here, we study the intricate links among the date of initial spring arrival, body mass, sex, and the age of first breeding in the common tern Sterna hirundo, a long-lived migratory colonial seabird. The study is based on a unique, individual-based, long-term dataset of sexed birds, marked with transponders, which allow recording their individual arrival, overall attendance, and clutch initiation remotely and automatically year by year over the entire lifetime at the natal colony site. We show that the seasonal date of initial arrival at the breeding grounds predicts the individual age at first reproduction, which mostly occurs years later. Late first-time arrivals remain delayed birds throughout subsequent years. Our findings reveal that timing of arrival at the site of reproduction and timing of reproduction itself are coherent parameters of individual quality, which are linked with the prospects of the breeding career and may have consequences for fitness. PMID:18711134

Improvement to Airport Throughput Using Intelligent Arrival Scheduling and an Expanded Planning Horizon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaab, Patricia C.

2012-01-01

The first phase of this study investigated the amount of time a flight can be delayed or expedited within the Terminal Airspace using only speed changes. The Arrival Capacity Calculator analysis tool was used to predict the time adjustment envelope for standard descent arrivals and then for CDA arrivals. Results ranged from 0.77 to 5.38 minutes. STAR routes were configured for the ACES simulation, and a validation of the ACC results was conducted comparing the maximum predicted time adjustments to those seen in ACES. The final phase investigated full runway-to-runway trajectories using ACES. The radial distance used by the arrival scheduler was incrementally increased from 50 to 150 nautical miles (nmi). The increased Planning Horizon radii allowed the arrival scheduler to arrange, path stretch, and speed-adjust flights to more fully load the arrival stream. The average throughput for the high volume portion of the day increased from 30 aircraft per runway for the 50 nmi radius to 40 aircraft per runway for the 150 nmi radius for a traffic set representative of high volume 2018. The recommended radius for the arrival scheduler s Planning Horizon was found to be 130 nmi, which allowed more than 95% loading of the arrival stream.

Delay time between onset of ischemic stroke and hospital arrival.

PubMed

Biller, J; Patrick, J T; Shepard, A; Adams, H P

1993-01-01

Some current experimental protocols for acute ischemic stroke require the initiation of treatment within hours of the onset of stroke symptoms. We prospectively evaluated 30 patients with acute ischemic stroke based on clinical and computed tomography findings. The time between the onset of stroke symptoms and arrival in the emergency room and subsequently on the stroke service was determined. Within 3, 6,12, and 24 h of the onset of stroke symptoms, 16 (53%), 19 (63%), 22 (73%), and 25 (83%) patients had arrived at the emergency room and 0 (0%), 4 (13%), 14 (47%), and 22 (73%) of them on the stroke service, respectively. From the onset of stroke symptoms, the mean arrival time to the emergency room was 24 h (range, 30 min to 144 h) and to the stroke service was 61 h (range, 4-150 h). The mean time between arrival in the emergency room and stroke service was 8.6 h (range, 0-47 h). Even though 53% and 63% of our patients arrived at the emergency room within 3 and 6 h of the onset of stroke symptoms, only 0% and 13% of them arrived on the stroke service within the same time period for the initiation of treatment, respectively. Thus, in order for more patients to qualify for current experimental protocols, they must arrive on the stroke service more quickly or treatment must be initiated in the emergency room. Copyright © 1993. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Zika virus pandemic-analysis of Facebook as a social media health information platform.

PubMed

Sharma, Megha; Yadav, Kapil; Yadav, Nitika; Ferdinand, Keith C

2017-03-01

The arrival of Zika virus in the United States has generated a lot of activity on social media focusing on the algorithmic increase in the spread of the disease and its concerning complications. Accurate and credible dissemination of correct information about the arbovirus could help in decreasing the pandemic spread and associated apprehension in the population. Our study examined the effective use of the social media site Facebook (Facebook Inc, Menlo Park, CA) as an information source for the Zika virus pandemic. We found that the misleading posts were far more popular than the posts dispersing accurate, relevant public health information about the disease. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of a deconvolution method for identifying burst amplitudes and arrival times in Alcator C-Mod far SOL plasma fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theodorsen, Audun; Garcia, Odd Erik; Kube, Ralph; Labombard, Brian; Terry, Jim

2017-10-01

In the far scrape-off layer (SOL), radial motion of filamentary structures leads to excess transport of particles and heat. Amplitudes and arrival times of these filaments have previously been studied by conditional averaging in single-point measurements from Langmuir Probes and Gas Puff Imaging (GPI). Conditional averaging can be problematic: the cutoff for large amplitudes is mostly chosen by convention; the conditional windows used may influence the arrival time distribution; and the amplitudes cannot be separated from a background. Previous work has shown that SOL fluctuations are well described by a stochastic model consisting of a super-position of pulses with fixed shape and randomly distributed amplitudes and arrival times. The model can be formulated as a pulse shape convolved with a train of delta pulses. By choosing a pulse shape consistent with the power spectrum of the fluctuation time series, Richardson-Lucy deconvolution can be used to recover the underlying amplitudes and arrival times of the delta pulses. We apply this technique to both L and H-mode GPI data from the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. The pulse arrival times are shown to be uncorrelated and uniformly distributed, consistent with a Poisson process, and the amplitude distribution has an exponential tail.

Solar activity variations of equatorial spread F occurrence and sustenance during different seasons over Indian longitudes: Empirical model and causative mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhav Haridas, M. K.; Manju, G.; Arunamani, T.

2018-05-01

A comprehensive analysis using nearly two decades of ionosonde data is carried out on the seasonal and solar cycle variations of Equatorial Spread F (ESF) irregularities over magnetic equatorial location Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E). The corresponding Rayleigh Taylor (RT) instability growth rates (γ) are also estimated. A seasonal pattern of ESF occurrence and the corresponding γ is established for low solar (LSA), medium solar (MSA) and high solar (HSA) activity periods. For LSA, it is seen that the γ maximizes during post sunset time with comparable magnitudes for autumnal equinox (AE), vernal equinox (VE) and winter solstice (WS), while for summer solstice (SS) it maximizes in the post-midnight period. Concurrent responses are seen in the ESF occurrence pattern. For MSA, γ maximizes during post-sunset for VE followed by WS and AE while SS maximises during post-midnight period. The ESF occurrence for MSA is highest for VE (80%), followed by AE (70%), WS (60%) and SS (50%). In case of HSA, maximum γ occurs for VE followed by AE, WS and SS. The concurrent ESF occurrence maximizes for VE and AE (90%), WS and SS at 70%. The solar cycle variation of γ is examined. γ shows a linear variation with F10.7 cm flux. Further, ESF percentage occurrence and duration show an exponential and linear variation respectively with γ. An empirical model on the solar activity dependence of ESF occurrence and sustenance time over Indian longitudes is arrived at using the database spanning two solar cycles for the first time.

Constructing ’The Other’: Ethno-Religious Identity in Separatist Movements in Southeast Asia

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

thirteenth century, first arriving in northern Sumatra, the island closest to South and Southwest Asia.8 Persian, Arab, and Indian traders, teachers, and...missionaries spread their religion as they moved along the established sea lanes in the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, and the Malacca...Pattani,25 close to the Malaysian border. Thai-Malay Muslims are also racially different from the rest of the largely ethnic Thai population.26 Although

A rapid assessment survey of invasive species of macrobenthic invertebrates in Korean waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chul; Kim, Sung-Tae; Hong, Jae-Sang; Choi, Keun-Hyung

2017-09-01

Introduced species are a growing and imminent threat to living marine resources in parts of the world's oceans. The present study is a rapid assessment survey of invasive macrobenthic invertebrate species in Korean ports. We surveyed over 40 ports around Korea during the period of May 2010 March 2013. Among the sampling sites were concrete walls, docks and associated floats, bumpers, tires, and ropes which might harbor non-native species. We found 15 invasive species as follows: one Sponge, two Bryozoans, three Mollusks, one Polychaete, four Cirripedes, and four Ascidians. Three morphologically similar species, namely X. atrata, M. galloprovincialis, and X. securis were further examined for distinctions in their morphology. Although they could be reasonably distinguished based on shell shapes, significant overlap was noted so that additional analysis may be required to correctly distinguish them. Although many of the introduced species have already spread to all three coastal areas, newly arrived invasive species showed a relatively restricted range, with a serpulid polychaete Ficopomatus enigmaticus and a mytilid bivalve Xenostrobus securis found only at a few sites on the East Coast. An exception is for Balanus perforatus, which has rapidly colonized the East coast of Korea following its introduction into the region. Successful management of invasive macrobenthic invertebrates should be established in order to contain the spread of these newly arrived species.

Pricing by timing: innovating broadband data plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Sangtae; Joe-Wong, Carlee; Sen, Soumya; Chiang, Mung

2012-01-01

Wireless Internet usage is doubling every year. Users are using more of high bandwidth data applications, and the heavy usage concentrates on several peak hours in a day, forcing ISPs to overprovision their networks accordingly. In order to remain profitable, ISPs have been using pricing as a congestion management tool. We review many of such pricing schemes in practice today and argue that they do not solve ISPs' problem of growing data traffic. We believe that dynamic, time-dependent usage pricing, which charges users based on when they access the Internet, can incentivize users to spread out their bandwidth consumption more evenly across different times of the day, thus helping ISPs to overcome the problem of peak congestion. Congestion pricing is not a new idea in itself, but the time for its implementation in data networks has finally arrived. Our key contribution lies in developing new analysis and a fully integrated system architecture, called TUBE (Time-dependent Usage-based Broadband price Engineering) that enables ISPs to implement the proposed TDP plan. The theory, simulation, and system implementation of TUBE system is further complemented with consumer surveys conducted in India and the US, along with preparations for a field trial that is currently underway.

An Exploratory Study of Runway Arrival Procedures: Time Based Arrival and Self-Spacing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houston, Vincent E.; Barmore, Bryan

2009-01-01

The ability of a flight crew to deliver their aircraft to its arrival runway on time is important to the overall efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS). Over the past several years, the NAS has been stressed almost to its limits resulting in problems such as airport congestion, flight delay, and flight cancellation to reach levels that have never been seen before in the NAS. It is predicted that this situation will worsen by the year 2025, due to an anticipated increase in air traffic operations to one-and-a-half to three times its current level. Improved arrival efficiency, in terms of both capacity and environmental impact, is an important part of improving NAS operations. One way to improve the arrival performance of an aircraft is to enable the flight crew to precisely deliver their aircraft to a specified point at either a specified time or specified interval relative to another aircraft. This gives the flight crew more control to make the necessary adjustments to their aircraft s performance with less tactical control from the controller; it may also decrease the controller s workload. Two approaches to precise time navigation have been proposed: Time-Based Arrivals (e.g., required times of arrival) and Self-Spacing. Time-Based Arrivals make use of an aircraft s Flight Management System (FMS) to deliver the aircraft to the runway threshold at a given time. Self-Spacing enables the flight crew to achieve an ATC assigned spacing goals at the runway threshold relative to another aircraft. The Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), a multi-agency initiative established to plan and coordinate the development of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), has asked for data for both of these concepts to facilitate future research and development. This paper provides a first look at the delivery performance of these two concepts under various initial and environmental conditions in an air traffic simulation environment.

Estimation of the Arrival Time and Duration of a Radio Signal with Unknown Amplitude and Initial Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trifonov, A. P.; Korchagin, Yu. E.; Korol'kov, S. V.

2018-05-01

We synthesize the quasi-likelihood, maximum-likelihood, and quasioptimal algorithms for estimating the arrival time and duration of a radio signal with unknown amplitude and initial phase. The discrepancies between the hardware and software realizations of the estimation algorithm are shown. The characteristics of the synthesized-algorithm operation efficiency are obtained. Asymptotic expressions for the biases, variances, and the correlation coefficient of the arrival-time and duration estimates, which hold true for large signal-to-noise ratios, are derived. The accuracy losses of the estimates of the radio-signal arrival time and duration because of the a priori ignorance of the amplitude and initial phase are determined.

Pseudorange error analysis for precise indoor positioning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pola, Marek; Bezoušek, Pavel

2017-05-01

There is a currently developed system of a transmitter indoor localization intended for fire fighters or members of rescue corps. In this system the transmitter of an ultra-wideband orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing signal position is determined by the time difference of arrival method. The position measurement accuracy highly depends on the directpath signal time of arrival estimation accuracy which is degraded by severe multipath in complicated environments such as buildings. The aim of this article is to assess errors in the direct-path signal time of arrival determination caused by multipath signal propagation and noise. Two methods of the direct-path signal time of arrival estimation are compared here: the cross correlation method and the spectral estimation method.

Design of a TDOA location engine and development of a location system based on chirp spread spectrum.

PubMed

Wang, Rui-Rong; Yu, Xiao-Qing; Zheng, Shu-Wang; Ye, Yang

2016-01-01

Location based services (LBS) provided by wireless sensor networks have garnered a great deal of attention from researchers and developers in recent years. Chirp spread spectrum (CSS) signaling formatting with time difference of arrival (TDOA) ranging technology is an effective LBS technique in regards to positioning accuracy, cost, and power consumption. The design and implementation of the location engine and location management based on TDOA location algorithms were the focus of this study; as the core of the system, the location engine was designed as a series of location algorithms and smoothing algorithms. To enhance the location accuracy, a Kalman filter algorithm and moving weighted average technique were respectively applied to smooth the TDOA range measurements and location results, which are calculated by the cooperation of a Kalman TDOA algorithm and a Taylor TDOA algorithm. The location management server, the information center of the system, was designed with Data Server and Mclient. To evaluate the performance of the location algorithms and the stability of the system software, we used a Nanotron nanoLOC Development Kit 3.0 to conduct indoor and outdoor location experiments. The results indicated that the location system runs stably with high accuracy at absolute error below 0.6 m.

Myxomatosis in 1950s Britain.

PubMed

Bartrip, P W J

2008-01-01

In 1953 myxomatosis, a viral disease of rabbits, broke out in Britain for the first time. It rapidly killed tens of millions of the animals from Kent to the Shetlands. Many farmers and foresters welcomed a disease that virtually eliminated a longstanding and serious agricultural pest. Others were horrified by the sight of thousands of dead and dying animals. With meat still rationed, consumers rued the loss of a cheap and nutritious foodstuff. Rough shooters deplored the loss of prey and hatters and furriers the unavailability of the fur on which their businesses depended. Rabbits also had champions within the 'establishment'; these included Winston Churchill who was personally influential in making deliberate transmission of the disease a criminal offence. The arrival in Britain of myxomatosis presented the authorities with difficult questions: should they try to contain it, spread it or do nothing; should they take advantage of rabbit depopulation and try to exterminate such a destructive animal? In the event the outbreak was allowed to run its course and rabbit extermination became government policy. This article considers who or what was responsible for the disease reaching the UK and how it then spread throughout the country. It examines the responses of government, other institutions and members of the public. Finally, it explores the impact of rabbit de-population on agriculture, the natural environment and public opinion.

Check, please. Don't expect after-dinner mints.

PubMed

1994-03-30

That's because when the check arrives, there'll be condoms instead. Cabbage and Condoms, a Thai restaurant overseen by the Bangkok-based Population and Development Association, serves both items. The eatery plans to open its first overseas outlet in Beijing next month. "We have been working with Chinese family-planning groups and chose Beijing because it is the capital of the world's most populous country," says PDA founding chairman Mechai Viravaidya, who is widely known as "Mr. Condom" for his promotion of the device to stem population growth and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Stressing public awareness over coercion represents the next wave of birth control in China. The country's population is projected to hit 1.65 billion stabilizing around 2044. "Our food is guaranteed not to cause pregnancy," quips Mechai. Cabbages and condoms plans to serve Chinese and Thai dishes and offer karaoke. Profits will go to promoting birth control and AIDS awareness. The opening is timely: the World Health Organization recently urged China to boost its efforts to fight the spread of AIDS. Officially the country has 1159 cases of the disease, but the real number may be a lot higher. The PDA also plans to open restaurants in Vietnam, Australia and the US. full text

Analysis of Deep Seafloor Arrivals Observed on NPAL04

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-03

transmission station to the scattering point (black line) to compute the time spent on the PE-predicted path to the scattering point. This time would...arrives at the OBSs at times corresponding to caustics of the PE predicted time fronts, there are large amplitude, late arrivals that occur between... caustics and even after the PE predicted coda. Similar analysis was done for T500 to T2300 with similar results and is discussed in Section 4 of

Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions.

PubMed

Stachowicz, John J; Terwin, Jeffrey R; Whitlatch, Robert B; Osman, Richard W

2002-11-26

The spread of exotic species and climate change are among the most serious global environmental threats. Each independently causes considerable ecological damage, yet few data are available to assess whether changing climate might facilitate invasions by favoring introduced over native species. Here, we compare our long-term record of weekly sessile marine invertebrate recruitment with interannual variation in water temperature to assess the likely effect of climate change on the success and spread of introduced species. For the three most abundant introduced species of ascidian (sea squirt), the timing of the initiation of recruitment was strongly negatively correlated with winter water temperature, indicating that invaders arrived earlier in the season in years with warmer winters. Total recruitment of introduced species during the following summer also was positively correlated with winter water temperature. In contrast, the magnitude of native ascidian recruitment was negatively correlated with winter temperature (more recruitment in colder years) and the timing of native recruitment was unaffected. In manipulative laboratory experiments, two introduced compound ascidians grew faster than a native species, but only at temperatures near the maximum observed in summer. These data suggest that the greatest effects of climate change on biotic communities may be due to changing maximum and minimum temperatures rather than annual means. By giving introduced species an earlier start, and increasing the magnitude of their growth and recruitment relative to natives, global warming may facilitate a shift to dominance by nonnative species, accelerating the homogenization of the global biota.

Modelling and mitigating refractive propagation effects in precision pulsar timing observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shannon, R. M.; Cordes, J. M.

2017-01-01

To obtain the most accurate pulse arrival times from radio pulsars, it is necessary to correct or mitigate the effects of the propagation of radio waves through the warm and ionized interstellar medium. We examine both the strength of propagation effects associated with large-scale electron-density variations and the methodology used to estimate infinite frequency arrival times. Using simulations of two-dimensional phase-varying screens, we assess the strength and non-stationarity of timing perturbations associated with large-scale density variations. We identify additional contributions to arrival times that are stochastic in both radio frequency and time and therefore not amenable to correction solely using times of arrival. We attribute this to the frequency dependence of the trajectories of the propagating radio waves. We find that this limits the efficacy of low-frequency (metre-wavelength) observations. Incorporating low-frequency pulsar observations into precision timing campaigns is increasingly problematic for pulsars with larger dispersion measures.

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, Alexandra M.; Mays, M. Leila; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Jian, Lan K.; Odstrcil, Dusan; MacNeice, Peter

2018-03-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

Sequencing of tsunami waves: Why the first wave is not always the largest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okal, Emile; Synolakis, Costas

2015-04-01

In many instances, the largest wave to hit a coastline during a tsunami is not the first one. Classical examples include the arrivals of the 1960 Chilean tsunami in Hilo, Hawaii, and of the 1964 Alaskan tsunami in Crescent City, California, where most casualties took place during later arrivals. This situation can be socially treacherous, since residents and civil defense authorities are led to believe that the worst is over after a first, relatively mild arrival, and to give an early "all clear" before the true largest wave, as was the case in Papeete, Tahiti during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. We research this problem by using a number of simple models for which analytical solutions are available, as well as more realistic simulations of the large earthquake tsunamis of the past decade, and compare their results to a catalog of waveforms obtained at DART buoys spread over the Pacific Basin. Preliminary results indicate a transition from a regime of Maximum First Wave to one of Delayed Maximum when distance is increased, azimuth to receiver is moved away from the normal to fault strike, and/or source size is reduced.

A comprehensive review of prehospital and in-hospital delay times in acute stroke care.

PubMed

Evenson, K R; Foraker, R E; Morris, D L; Rosamond, W D

2009-06-01

The purpose of this study was to systematically review and summarize prehospital and in-hospital stroke evaluation and treatment delay times. We identified 123 unique peer-reviewed studies published from 1981 to 2007 of prehospital and in-hospital delay time for evaluation and treatment of patients with stroke, transient ischemic attack, or stroke-like symptoms. Based on studies of 65 different population groups, the weighted Poisson regression indicated a 6.0% annual decline (P<0.001) in hours/year for prehospital delay, defined from symptom onset to emergency department arrival. For in-hospital delay, the weighted Poisson regression models indicated no meaningful changes in delay time from emergency department arrival to emergency department evaluation (3.1%, P=0.49 based on 12 population groups). There was a 10.2% annual decline in hours/year from emergency department arrival to neurology evaluation or notification (P=0.23 based on 16 population groups) and a 10.7% annual decline in hours/year for delay time from emergency department arrival to initiation of computed tomography (P=0.11 based on 23 population groups). Only one study reported on times from arrival to computed tomography scan interpretation, two studies on arrival to drug administration, and no studies on arrival to transfer to an in-patient setting, precluding generalizations. Prehospital delay continues to contribute the largest proportion of delay time. The next decade provides opportunities to establish more effective community-based interventions worldwide. It will be crucial to have effective stroke surveillance systems in place to better understand and improve both prehospital and in-hospital delays for acute stroke care.

Identifying and Correcting Timing Errors at Seismic Stations in and around Iran

DOE PAGES

Syracuse, Ellen Marie; Phillips, William Scott; Maceira, Monica; ...

2017-09-06

A fundamental component of seismic research is the use of phase arrival times, which are central to event location, Earth model development, and phase identification, as well as derived products. Hence, the accuracy of arrival times is crucial. However, errors in the timing of seismic waveforms and the arrival times based on them may go unidentified by the end user, particularly when seismic data are shared between different organizations. Here, we present a method used to analyze travel-time residuals for stations in and around Iran to identify time periods that are likely to contain station timing problems. For the 14more » stations with the strongest evidence of timing errors lasting one month or longer, timing corrections are proposed to address the problematic time periods. Finally, two additional stations are identified with incorrect locations in the International Registry of Seismograph Stations, and one is found to have erroneously reported arrival times in 2011.« less

The structure of 0- to 0.2-m.y.-old oceanic crust at 9°N on the East Pacific Rise from expanded spread profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vera, E. E.; Mutter, J. C.; Buhl, P.; Orcutt, J. A.; Harding, A. J.; Kappus, M. E.; Detrick, R. S.; Brocher, T. M.

1990-09-01

We analyze four expanded spread profiles acquired at distances of 0, 2.1, 3.1, and 10 km (0-0.2 m.y.) from the axis of the East Pacific Rise between 9° and 10°N. Velocity-depth models for these profiles have been obtained by travel time inversion in the τ-p domain, and by x-t forward modeling using the WKBJ and the reflectivity methods. We observe refracted arrivals that allow us to determine directly the uppermost crustal velocity structure (layer 2A). At the seafloor we find very low Vp and VS/Vp values around 2.2 km/s and ≤ 0.43. In the topmost 100-200 m of the crust, Vp remains low (≤ 2.5 km/s) then rapidly increases to 5 km/s at ˜500 m below the seafloor. High attenuation values (Qp < 100) are suggested in the topmost ˜500 m of the crust. The layer 2-3 transition probably occurs within the dike unit, a few hundred meters above the dike-gabbro transition. This transition may mark the maximum depth of penetration by a cracking front and associated hydrothermal circulation in the axial region above the axial magma chamber (AMC). The on-axis profile shows arrivals that correspond to the bright AMC event seen in reflection lines within 2 km of the rise axis. The top of the AMC lies 1.6 km below the seafloor and consists of molten material where Vp ≈ 3 km/s and VS = 0. Immediately above the AMC, there is a zone of large negative velocity gradients where, on the average, Vp decreases from ˜6.3 to 3 km/s over a depth of approximately 250 m. Associated with the AMC there is a low velocity zone (LVZ) that extends to a distance no greater than 10 km away from the rise axis. At the top of the LVZ, sharp velocity contrasts are confined to within 2 km of the rise axis and are associated with molten material or material with a high percentage of melt which would be concentrated only in a thin zone at the apex of the LVZ, in the axial region where the AMC event is seen in reflection lines. Away from the axis, the transition to the LVZ is smoother, the top of the LVZ is deeper, and the LVZ is less pronounced. The bottom of the LVZ is probably located near the bottom of the crust and above the Moho. Moho arrivals are observed in the profiles at zero and at 10 km from the rise axis. Rather than a single discontinuity, these arrivals indicate an approximately 1-km-thick Moho transition zone.

Different motion cues are used to estimate time-to-arrival for frontoparallel and looming trajectories

PubMed Central

Calabro, Finnegan J.; Beardsley, Scott A.; Vaina, Lucia M.

2012-01-01

Estimation of time-to-arrival for moving objects is critical to obstacle interception and avoidance, as well as to timing actions such as reaching and grasping moving objects. The source of motion information that conveys arrival time varies with the trajectory of the object raising the question of whether multiple context-dependent mechanisms are involved in this computation. To address this question we conducted a series of psychophysical studies to measure observers’ performance on time-to-arrival estimation when object trajectory was specified by angular motion (“gap closure” trajectories in the frontoparallel plane), looming (colliding trajectories, TTC) or both (passage courses, TTP). We measured performance of time-to-arrival judgments in the presence of irrelevant motion, in which a perpendicular motion vector was added to the object trajectory. Data were compared to models of expected performance based on the use of different components of optical information. Our results demonstrate that for gap closure, performance depended only on the angular motion, whereas for TTC and TTP, both angular and looming motion affected performance. This dissociation of inputs suggests that gap closures are mediated by a separate mechanism than that used for the detection of time-to-collision and time-to-passage. We show that existing models of TTC and TTP estimation make systematic errors in predicting subject performance, and suggest that a model which weights motion cues by their relative time-to-arrival provides a better account of performance. PMID:22056519

Urinary Schistosomiasis in an Adolescent Refugee from Africa: An Uncommon Cause of Hematuria and an Emerging Infectious Disease in Europe.

PubMed

Poddighe, Dimitri; Castelli, Lucia; Pulcrano, Giovanna; Grosini, Alessia; Balzaretti, Michela; Spadaro, Salvatore; Bruni, Paola

2016-10-01

We report a case of urinary schistosomiasis in an adolescent refugee from Gambia (arrived to Italy illegally), who was brought to the Emergency Department of our hospital. The patient complained of gross hematuria and, in the absence of clinical evidence of bacterial urinary infection, was admitted to the pediatric ward, considering his provenience and social setting. An appropriate collection and microscopic analysis of urine samples led to the detection of bilharzia. Much attention should be paid to this emerging disease in Europe by physicians in order to recognize and treat it timely, which could prevent future and higher costs for public health systems and could reduce the potential risk of environmental spreading. In fact, there are some areas in Italy where the parasite can find its intermediate host to complete its lifecycle.

Evaluation of eight short-term long-range transport models using field data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carhart, R. A.; Policastro, A. J.; Wastag, M.; Coke, L.

Eight short-term long-range transport models (MESOPUFF, MESOPLUME, MSPUFF, MESOPUFF II, MTDDIS, ARRPA, RADM and RTM-II) have been tested with field data from two data bases involving tracer releases. The Oklahoma data base involved two separate experiments with measurements taken at 100 and 600 km arcs downwind of a 3-h perfluorocarbon release. The Savannah River Plant data base encompassed 15 experiments with measurements taken over 2-5 days at distances of 28-144 km downwind from a 62 m stack release of Kr-85 gas. Application of the American Meteorological Society statistics to the model/data comparisons showed that six of the eight models predicted within a factor of two of the observed concentrations for all of the following: points paired in space and time, points paired in space only, and for points unpaired in space and time. However, the ratio of the standard deviation of residuals to the average observed value showed improvement as more unpairing was done in the comparison of the models with the data. The statistical comparisons reveal a definite tendency of the models to overpredict plume concentrations. Supplemental graphical comparisons showed that plume concentration overprediction is accompanied with an underprediction of plume spreading, and that a definite time lag is often observed between the time of arrival of the observed plume and the time of arrival of the predicted plume. The causes of model/data discrepancies can be largely traced to inadequate wind field modeling that leads to an incorrect temporal and spatial positioning of the plume, and the use of the Turner [Workbook of atmospheric dispersion estimates. U.S. Dept of H.E.W. Publication 999-AP-26 (1970)] curves to downwind distances beyond which they can accurately represent the scales of atmospheric turbulence. The use of multilayer wind field models and the use of the Heffter [ J. appl. Met.4, 153-156 (1965)] formula for lateral plume dispersion close to the source appear to improve model accuracies.

Hardware-software complex of informing passengers of forecasted route transport arrival at stop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pogrebnoy, V. Yu; Pushkarev, M. I.; Fadeev, A. S.

2017-02-01

The paper presents the hardware-software complex of informing the passengers of the forecasted route transport arrival. A client-server architecture of the forecasting information system is represented and an electronic information board prototype is described. The scheme of information transfer and processing, starting with receiving navigating telemetric data from a transport vehicle and up to the time of passenger public transport arrival at the stop, as well as representation of the information on the electronic board is illustrated and described. Methods and algorithms of determination of the transport vehicle current location in the city route network are considered in detail. The description of the proposed forecasting model of transport vehicle arrival time at the stop is given. The obtained result is applied in Tomsk for forecasting and displaying the arrival time information at the stops.

On the Front Line: Quantitative Virus Dynamics in Honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) Colonies along a New Expansion Front of the Parasite Varroa destructor

PubMed Central

Mondet, Fanny; de Miranda, Joachim R.; Kretzschmar, Andre; Le Conte, Yves; Mercer, Alison R.

2014-01-01

Over the past fifty years, annual honeybee (Apis mellifera) colony losses have been steadily increasing worldwide. These losses have occurred in parallel with the global spread of the honeybee parasite Varroa destructor. Indeed, Varroa mite infestations are considered to be a key explanatory factor for the widespread increase in annual honeybee colony mortality. The host-parasite relationship between honeybees and Varroa is complicated by the mite's close association with a range of honeybee viral pathogens. The 10-year history of the expanding front of Varroa infestation in New Zealand offered a rare opportunity to assess the dynamic quantitative and qualitative changes in honeybee viral landscapes in response to the arrival, spread and level of Varroa infestation. We studied the impact of de novo infestation of bee colonies by Varroa on the prevalence and titres of seven well-characterised honeybee viruses in both bees and mites, using a large-scale molecular ecology approach. We also examined the effect of the number of years since Varroa arrival on honeybee and mite viral titres. The dynamic shifts in the viral titres of black queen cell virus and Kashmir bee virus mirrored the patterns of change in Varroa infestation rates along the Varroa expansion front. The deformed wing virus (DWV) titres in bees continued to increase with Varroa infestation history, despite dropping infestation rates, which could be linked to increasing DWV titres in the mites. This suggests that the DWV titres in mites, perhaps boosted by virus replication, may be a major factor in maintaining the DWV epidemic after initial establishment. Both positive and negative associations were identified for several pairs of viruses, in response to the arrival of Varroa. These findings provide important new insights into the role of the parasitic mite Varroa destructor in influencing the viral landscape that affects honeybee colonies. PMID:25144447

Variable changes in nematode infection prevalence and intensity after Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus emerged in wild rabbits in Scotland and New Zealand.

PubMed

Hernandez, Alexander D; Boag, Brian; Neilson, Roy; Forrester, Naomi L

2018-08-01

The myxoma virus (a microparasite) reduced wild rabbit numbers worldwide when introduced in the 1950s, and is known to interact with co-infecting helminths (macroparasites) causing both increases and decreases in macroparasite population size. In the 1990s Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV) infected rabbits and also significantly reduced rabbit numbers in several countries. However, not much is known about RHDV interactions with macroparasites. In this study, we compare prevalence and intensity of infection for three gastrointestinal nematode species ( Trichostrongylus retortaeformis , Graphidium strigosum and Passalurus ambiguus ) before and after RHDV spread across host populations in Scotland and New Zealand. During one common season, autumn, prevalence of T. retortaeformis was higher after RHDV spread in both locations, whereas it was lower for G. strigosum and P. ambiguus after RHDV arrived in New Zealand, but higher in Scotland. Meanwhile, intensity of infection for all species decreased after RHDV arrived in New Zealand, but increased in Scotland. The impact of RHDV on worm infections was generally similar across seasons in Scotland, and also similarities in seasonality between locations suggested effects on infection patterns in one season are likely similar year-round. The variable response by macroparasites to the arrival of a microparasite into Scottish and New Zealand rabbits may be due to differences in the environment they inhabit, in existing parasite community structure, and to some extent, in the relative magnitude of indirect effects. Specifically, our data suggest that bottom-up processes after the introduction of a more virulent strain of RHDV to New Zealand may affect macroparasite co-infections by reducing the availability of their shared common resource, the rabbits. Clearly, interactions between co-infecting micro- and macroparasites vary in host populations with different ecologies, and significantly impact parasite community structure in wildlife.

Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao

2017-01-01

Time-based flow management provides arrival aircraft schedules based on arrival airport conditions, airport capacity, required spacing, and weather conditions. In order to meet a scheduled time at which arrival aircraft can cross an airport arrival meter fix prior to entering the airport terminal airspace, air traffic controllers make regulations on air traffic. Severe weather may create an airport arrival bottleneck if one or more of airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by the weather and the arrival demand has not been reduced accordingly. Under these conditions, aircraft are frequently being put in holding patterns until they can be rerouted. A model that predicts the weather impacted meter fix throughput may help air traffic controllers direct arrival flows into the airport more efficiently, minimizing arrival meter fix congestion. This paper presents an analysis of air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Several scenarios of weather impacted EWR arrival fix flows are described. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and regression tree ensemble learning approaches for translating multiple sector Weather Impacted Traffic Indexes (WITI) to EWR arrival meter fix throughputs are examined. These weather translation models are developed and validated using the EWR arrival flight and weather data for the period of April-September in 2014. This study also compares the performance of the regression tree ensemble with traditional multiple linear regression models for estimating the weather impacted throughputs at each of the EWR arrival meter fixes. For all meter fixes investigated, the results from the regression tree ensemble weather translation models show a stronger correlation between model outputs and observed meter fix throughputs than that produced from multiple linear regression method.

Topside and ground ionosonde observations of a mid-latitude scintillation region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajkowicz, L. A.

1982-02-01

Ionospheric amplitude scintillations of transmissions in the VHF range from orbiting satellites were compared with topside and ground (bottomside) ionograms of an inhomogeneous region in southern mid-latitudes. It is evident that, for the event considered, there is a good spatial correlation between intense topside and bottomside spread-F and scintillations. The ionospheric disturbance pattern appears to agree with a quasi-sinusoidal model of frontal disturbances (derived from the angle-of-arrival experiments) in the F-region at these geographic latitudes.

Method of locating underground mines fires

DOEpatents

Laage, Linneas; Pomroy, William

1992-01-01

An improved method of locating an underground mine fire by comparing the pattern of measured combustion product arrival times at detector locations with a real time computer-generated array of simulated patterns. A number of electronic fire detection devices are linked thru telemetry to a control station on the surface. The mine's ventilation is modeled on a digital computer using network analysis software. The time reguired to locate a fire consists of the time required to model the mines' ventilation, generate the arrival time array, scan the array, and to match measured arrival time patterns to the simulated patterns.

Historical inability to control Aedes aegypti as a main contributor of fast dispersal of chikungunya outbreaks in Latin America.

PubMed

Fernández-Salas, Ildefonso; Danis-Lozano, Rogelio; Casas-Martínez, Mauricio; Ulloa, Armando; Bond, J Guillermo; Marina, Carlos F; Lopez-Ordóñez, Teresa; Elizondo-Quiroga, Armando; Torres-Monzón, Jorge A; Díaz-González, Esteban E

2015-12-01

The arrival of chikungunya fever (CHIKF) in Latin American countries has been expected to trigger epidemics and challenge health systems. Historically considered as dengue-endemic countries, abundant Aedes aegypti populations make this region highly vulnerable to chikungunya virus (CHIKV) circulation. This review describes the current dengue and CHIKF epidemiological situations, as well as the role of uncontrolled Ae. aegypti and Aedes albopictus vectors in spreading the emerging CHIKV. Comments are included relating to the vector competence of both species and failures of surveillance and vector control measures. Dengue endemicity is a reflection of these abundant and persistent Aedes populations that are now spreading CHIKV in the Americas. This article forms part of a symposium in Antiviral Research on "Chikungunya discovers the New World." Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does winter region affect spring arrival time and body mass of king eiders in northern Alaska?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

2009-01-01

Events during the non-breeding season may affect the body condition of migratory birds and influence performance during the following breeding season. Migratory birds nesting in the Arctic often rely on endogenous nutrients for reproductive efforts, and are thus potentially subject to such carry-over effects. We tested whether king eider (Somateria spectabilis) arrival time and body mass upon arrival at breeding grounds in northern Alaska were affected by their choice of a winter region in the Bering Sea. We captured birds shortly after arrival on breeding grounds in early June 2002–2006 at two sites in northern Alaska and determined the region in which individuals wintered using satellite telemetry or stable isotope ratios of head feathers. We used generalized linear models to assess whether winter region explained variation in arrival body mass among individuals by accounting for sex, site, annual variation, and the date a bird was captured. We found no support for our hypothesis that either arrival time or arrival body mass of king eiders differed among winter regions. We conclude that wintering in different regions in the Bering Sea is unlikely to have reproductive consequences for king eiders in our study areas.

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyn, Larry A.; Erzberger, Heinz; Huynh, Phu V.

2011-01-01

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

Validation of Real-time Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Heliospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Zheng, Y.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.

2013-12-01

Modeling coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is of great interest to the space weather research and forecasting communities. We present recent validation work of real-time CME arrival time predictions at different satellites using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone three-dimensional MHD heliospheric model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and performed by the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. The quality of model operation is evaluated by comparing its output to a measurable parameter of interest such as the CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm strength. The Kp index is calculated from the relation given in Newell et al. (2007), using solar wind parameters predicted by the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model at Earth. The CME arrival time error is defined as the difference between the predicted arrival time and the observed in-situ CME shock arrival time at the ACE, STEREO A, or STEREO B spacecraft. This study includes all real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations performed between June 2011-2013 (over 400 runs) at the CCMC/SWRC. We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we show the average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of this error on CME input parameters such as speed, width, and direction. We also present the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (using the Kp index) error for Earth-directed CMEs.

If Time Is Brain Where Is the Improvement in Prehospital Time after Stroke?

PubMed Central

Pulvers, Jeremy N.; Watson, John D. G.

2017-01-01

Despite the availability of thrombolytic and endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke, many patients are ineligible due to delayed hospital arrival. The identification of factors related to either early or delayed hospital arrival may reveal potential targets of intervention to reduce prehospital delay and improve access to time-critical thrombolysis and clot retrieval therapy. Here, we have reviewed studies reporting on factors associated with either early or delayed hospital arrival after stroke, together with an analysis of stroke onset to hospital arrival times. Much effort in the stroke treatment community has been devoted to reducing door-to-needle times with encouraging improvements. However, this review has revealed that the median onset-to-door times and the percentage of stroke patients arriving before the logistically critical 3 h have shown little improvement in the past two decades. Major factors affecting prehospital time were related to emergency medical pathways, stroke symptomatology, patient and bystander behavior, patient health characteristics, and stroke treatment awareness. Interventions addressing these factors may prove effective in reducing prehospital delay, allowing prompt diagnosis, which in turn may increase the rates and/or efficacy of acute treatments such as thrombolysis and clot retrieval therapy and thereby improve stroke outcomes. PMID:29209269

ARRIVAL TIME CALCULATION FOR INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH CIRCULAR FRONTS AND APPLICATION TO STEREO OBSERVATIONS OF THE 2009 FEBRUARY 13 ERUPTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moestl, C.; Rollett, T.; Temmer, M.

2011-11-01

One of the goals of the NASA Solar TErestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time, and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape [fixed-{Phi} (FP): a point and harmonic mean (HM): a circle]. These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are basedmore » on the assumption of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km s{sup -1}) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hr than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hr for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case, the ICME has to be tracked to >30{sup 0} elongation to obtain arrival time errors < {+-} 5 hr. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry.« less

The interplanetary shock of September 24, 1998: Arrival at Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, C. T.; Wang, Y. L.; Raeder, J.; Tokar, R. L.; Smith, C. W.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Lazarus, A. J.; Lepping, R. P.; Szabo, A.; Kawano, H.; Mukai, T.; Savin, S.; Yermolaev, Y. I.; Zhou, X.-Y.; Tsurutani, B. T.

2000-11-01

At close to 2345 UT on September 24, 1998, the magnetosphere was suddenly compressed by the passage of an interplanetary shock. In order to properly interpret the magnetospheric events triggered by the arrival of this shock, we calculate the orientation of the shock, its velocity, and its estimated time of arrival at the nose of the magnetosphere. Our best fit shock normal has an orientation of (-0.981 -0.157 -0.112) in solar ecliptic coordinates, a speed of 769 km/s, and an arrival time of 2344:19 at the magnetopause at 10 RE. Since measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are available from multiple spacecraft, we can compare several different techniques of shock-normal determination. Of the single spacecraft techniques the magnetic coplanarity solution is most accurate and the mixed mode solution is of lesser accuracy. Uncertainty in the timing and location of the IMP 8 spacecraft limits the accuracy of solutions using the time of arrival at the position of IMP 8.

Evaluation of bus transit reliability in the District of Columbia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Several performance metrics can be used to assess the reliability of a transit system. These include on-time arrivals, travel-time : adherence, run-time adherence, and customer satisfaction, among others. On-time arrival at bus stops is one of the pe...

Collaborative Arrival Planning: Data Sharing and User Preference Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelenka, Richard E.; Edwards, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Air traffic growth and air carrier economic pressures have motivated efforts to increase the flexibility of the air traffic management process and change the relationship between the air traffic control service provider and the system user. One of the most visible of these efforts is the U.S. government/industry "free flight" initiative, in which the service provider concentrates on safety and cross-airline fairness, and the user on their business objectives and operating preferences, including selecting their own path and speed in real-time. In the terminal arrival phase of flight, severe restrictions and rigid control are currently placed on system users, typically without regard for individual user operational preferences. Airborne delays applied to arriving aircraft into capacity constrained airports are imposed on a first-come, first-serve basis, and thus do not allow the system user to plan for or prioritize late arrivals, or to economically optimize their arrival sequence. A central tenant of the free-flight operating paradigm is collaboration between service providers and users in reaching air traffic management decisions. Such collaboration would be particularly beneficial to an airline's "hub" operation, where off-schedule arrival aircraft are a consistent problem, as they cause serious air-port ramp difficulties, rippling airline scheduling effects, and result in large economic inefficiencies. Greater collaboration can also lead to increased airport capacity and decrease the severity of over-capacity rush periods. In the NASA Collaborative Arrival Planning (CAP) project, both independent exchange of real-time data between the service provider and system user and collaborative decision support tools are addressed. Data exchange of real-time arrival scheduling, airspace management, and air carrier fleet data between the FAA service provider and an air carrier is being conducted and evaluated. Collaborative arrival decision support tools to allow intra-airline arrival preferences are being developed and simulated. The CAP project is part of and leveraged from the NASA/FAA Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS), a fielded set of decision support tools that provide computer generated advisories for both enroute and terminal area controllers to manage and control arrival traffic more efficiently. In this paper, the NASA Collaborative Arrival Planning project is outlined and recent results detailed, including the real-time use of CTAS arrival scheduling data by a major air carrier and simulations of tactical and strategic user preference decision support tools.

Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor Operational Field Test Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farley, Todd; Landry, Steven J.; Hoang, Ty; Nickelson, Monicarol; Levin, Kerry M.; Rowe, Dennis W.

2005-01-01

The Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) is a research prototype system which seeks to bring time-based metering into the mainstream of air traffic control (ATC) operations. Time-based metering is an efficient alternative to traditional air traffic management techniques such as distance-based spacing (miles-in-trail spacing) and managed arrival reservoirs (airborne holding). While time-based metering has demonstrated significant benefit in terms of arrival throughput and arrival delay, its use to date has been limited to arrival operations at just nine airports nationally. Wide-scale adoption of time-based metering has been hampered, in part, by the limited scalability of metering automation. In order to realize the full spectrum of efficiency benefits possible with time-based metering, a much more modular, scalable time-based metering capability is required. With its distributed metering architecture, multi-center TMA offers such a capability.

Respiratory syncytial virus: its transmission in the hospital environment.

PubMed

Hall, C B

1982-01-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) over the past two decades has been recognized as the most important cause of lower respiratory tract disease in infants and young children. Recently, it has also been identified as a major nosocomial hazard on pediatric wards. The potential for RSV to spread on such wards is underlined by several singular characteristics of RSV. It arrives in yearly epidemics and is highly contagious in all age groups. Immunity is of short duration, allowing repeated infections to occur. Thus, during an epidemic 20--40 percent of infants admitted for other conditions may acquire nosocomial RSV infection, as well as 50 percent of the ward personnel. The usual infection control procedures for respiratory illnesses have had limited success in controlling the spread of RSV. This may be due in part to the modes of transmission of RSV. Inoculation occurs mainly through the eye and nose, rather than the mouth. This may be via large-particle aerosols or droplets, requiring close contact. The virus, however, does not seem capable of traversing distances by small-particle aerosols. Nevertheless, it is able to remain infectious on various environmental surfaces, suggesting fomites as a source of spread. Indeed, inoculation after touching such contaminated surfaces can occur, and may be a major second means of spread, in hospitals as well as in families.

Bluetongue in Spain: from the first outbreak to 2012.

PubMed

de Diego, A C Pérez; Sánchez-Cordón, P J; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

2014-12-01

Outbreaks of bluetongue disease have occurred in Spain six times and have been caused by the following serotypes of bluetongue virus (BTV), in chronological order: BTV10, BTV2, BTV4, BTV1 and BTV8. Serotypes BTV1, BTV2 and BTV4 may have entered the country in Culicoides transported by wind; BTV8 via infected animal movements; and BTV10 across the Portuguese border. The evolution of each serotype has been different: BTV1, BTV4 and BTV10 spread throughout mainland Spain; BTV2 did not spread from the Balearic Islands to the Iberian Peninsula; and BTV8 has proven very poor at spreading throughout mainland Spain. The significant economic impact of the disease has led authorities to adopt control and eradication measures, which have evolved as new diagnostic tools and vaccines have become available. This review describes BTV infection in Spain, and it focuses on the clinical disease produced by each serotype, the Culicoides species which were present at what time, the origin of the virus and the control measures adopted. In the field, it has proven necessary to vaccinate livestock against each new BTV serotype as it arrived. Therefore, future eradication strategies should focus on developing polyvalent vaccines and vaccines that allow the differentiation of infected and vaccinated animals. As of 1 January 2013, the Iberian Peninsula is considered a restricted area for BTV1, and a small zone in southern Spain is a restricted area for BTV4, which includes the little BTV8 restricted area. Serotypes BTV1 and BTV4 were detected in sentinel animals in January and November and in March 2012, respectively. The last BTV8 positive animal was detected in November 2010, which implies that in the coming months, Spain may be declared free of BTV8. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Queues with Dropping Functions and General Arrival Processes

PubMed Central

Chydzinski, Andrzej; Mrozowski, Pawel

2016-01-01

In a queueing system with the dropping function the arriving customer can be denied service (dropped) with the probability that is a function of the queue length at the time of arrival of this customer. The potential applicability of such mechanism is very wide due to the fact that by choosing the shape of this function one can easily manipulate several performance characteristics of the queueing system. In this paper we carry out analysis of the queueing system with the dropping function and a very general model of arrival process—the model which includes batch arrivals and the interarrival time autocorrelation, and allows for fitting the actual shape of the interarrival time distribution and its moments. For such a system we obtain formulas for the distribution of the queue length and the overall customer loss ratio. The analytical results are accompanied with numerical examples computed for several dropping functions. PMID:26943171

Multi-decadal trends in spring arrival of avian migrants to the central Arctic coast of Alaska: Effects of environmental and ecological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David; Helmericks, J.; Hupp, Jerry W.; McManus, L.; Budde, Michael; Douglas, David C.; Tape, K.D.

2016-01-01

Warming in the Arctic has caused the transition from winter to summer to occur weeks earlier over the last half century, yet little is known about whether avian migrants have altered their timing of arrival on breeding areas to match this earlier seasonal transition. Over a 50-yr period, we examined trends in the timing of the first arrival for 16 avian migrant species at the terminus of their northward migration along the central Arctic coast of Alaska and compared these trends to factors potentially influencing migration phenology. Date of first arrival occurred an average of 0.12 d yr−1 or 6 d (range = 3–10 d) earlier across all species and did not differ significantly among species between 1964 and 2013. Local climatic variables, particularly temperature, had a greater effect on a species first arrival date than did large-scale climatic predictors. First arrival date was 1.03 d earlier for every 1°C annual change in temperature, but there was nearly a 2-fold difference in the range of responses across species (0.69–1.33 d °C−1), implying that some species did better than others at timing their arrival with changing temperature. There was weak support for an influence of foraging strategy, migration distance, and flight path on timing of first arrival. Our findings, like others from temperate latitudes, indicate that avian migrants are responsive to changing environmental conditions, though some species appear to be more adaptive than others.

Time to antibiotics for septic shock: evaluating a proposed performance measure.

PubMed

Venkatesh, Arjun K; Avula, Umakanth; Bartimus, Holly; Reif, Justin; Schmidt, Michael J; Powell, Emilie S

2013-04-01

International guidelines recommend antibiotics within 1 hour of septic shock recognition; however, a recently proposed performance measure is focused on measuring antibiotic administration within 3 hours of emergency department (ED) arrival. Our objective was to describe the time course of septic shock and subsequent implications for performance measurement. Cross-sectional study of consecutive ED patients ultimately diagnosed with septic shock. All patients were evaluated at an urban, academic ED in 2006 to 2008. Primary outcomes included time to definition of septic shock and performance on 2 measures: antibiotics within 3 hours of ED arrival vs antibiotics within 1 hour of septic shock definition. Of 267 patients with septic shock, the median time to definition was 88 minutes (interquartile range, 37-156), and 217 patients (81.9%) met the definition within 3 hours of arrival. Of 221 (83.4%) of patients who received antibiotics within 3 hours of arrival, 38 (17.2%) did not receive antibiotics within 1 hour of definition. Of 207 patients who received antibiotics within 1 hour of definition, 11.6% (n = 24) did not receive antibiotics within 3 hours of arrival. The arrival measure did not accurately classify performance in 23.4% of patients. Nearly 1 of 5 patients cannot be captured for performance measurement within 3 hours of ED arrival due to the variable progression of septic shock. Use of this measure would misclassify performance in 23% of patients. Measuring antibiotic administration based on the clinical course of septic shock rather than from ED arrival would be more appropriate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scheduling and Separating Departures Crossing Arrival Flows in Shared Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chevalley, Eric; Parke, Bonny K.; Lee, Paul; Omar, Faisal; Lee, Hwasoo; Beinert, Nancy; Kraut, Joshua M.; Palmer, Everett

2013-01-01

Flight efficiency and reduction of flight delays are among the primary goals of NextGen. In this paper, we propose a concept of shared airspace where departures fly across arrival flows, provided gaps are available in these flows. We have explored solutions to separate departures temporally from arrival traffic and pre-arranged procedures to support controllers' decisions. We conducted a Human-in-the-Loop simulation and assessed the efficiency and safety of 96 departures from the San Jose airport (SJC) climbing across the arrival airspace of the Oakland and San Francisco arrival flows. In our simulation, the SJC tower had a tool to schedule departures to fly across predicted gaps in the arrival flow. When departures were mistimed and separation could not be ensured, a safe but less efficient route was provided to the departures to fly under the arrival flows. A coordination using a point-out procedure allowed the arrival controller to control the SJC departures right after takeoff. We manipulated the accuracy of departure time (accurate vs. inaccurate) as well as which sector took control of the departures after takeoff (departure vs. arrival sector) in a 2x2 full factorial plan. Results show that coordination time decreased and climb efficiency increased when the arrival sector controlled the aircraft right after takeoff. Also, climb efficiency increased when the departure times were more accurate. Coordination was shown to be a critical component of tactical operations in shared airspace. Although workload, coordination, and safety were judged by controllers as acceptable in the simulation, it appears that in the field, controllers would need improved tools and coordination procedures to support this procedure.

Substructures in the temporal distribution of atmospheric Cerenkov light in EAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosia, G.; Navarra, G.; Saavedra, O.; Boehm, E.

1980-06-01

Particle density and arrival time distribution of atmospheric Cerenkov light (ACL) was measured simultaneously in individual air showers at Pic du Midi. Substructures were observed in the arrival time distribution of the ACL. The arrival time is related to a position in the shower plane which indicates the existence of density variations, i.e., substructures in the lateral distribution of particles. The frequency of substructures is a few percent, and core distances of up to tens of meters were observed.

Upper-mantle seismic structure in a region of incipient continental breakup: northern Ethiopian rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastow, Ian D.; Stuart, Graham W.; Kendall, J.-Michael; Ebinger, Cynthia J.

2005-08-01

The northern Ethiopian rift forms the third arm of the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden triple junction, and marks the transition from continental rifting in the East African rift to incipient oceanic spreading in Afar. We determine the P- and S-wave velocity structure beneath the northern Ethiopian rift using independent tomographic inversion of P- and S-wave relative arrival-time residuals from teleseismic earthquakes recorded by the Ethiopia Afar Geoscientific Lithospheric Experiment (EAGLE) passive experiment using the regularised non-linear least-squares inversion method of VanDecar. Our 79 broad-band instruments covered an area 250 × 350 km centred on the Boset magmatic segment ~70 km SE of Addis Ababa in the centre of the northern Ethiopian rift. The study area encompasses several rift segments showing increasing degrees of extension and magmatic intrusion moving from south to north into the Afar depression. Analysis of relative arrival-time residuals shows that the rift flanks are asymmetric with arrivals associated with the southeastern Somalian Plate faster (~0.65 s for the P waves; ~2 s for the S waves) than the northwestern Nubian Plate. Our tomographic inversions image a 75 km wide tabular low-velocity zone (δVP~-1.5 per cent, δVS~-4 per cent) beneath the less-evolved southern part of the rift in the uppermost 200-250 km of the mantle. At depths of >100 km, north of 8.5°N, this low-velocity anomaly broadens laterally and appears to be connected to deeper low-velocity structures under the Afar depression. An off-rift low-velocity structure extending perpendicular to the rift axis correlates with the eastern limit of the E-W trending reactivated Precambrian Ambo-Guder fault zone that is delineated by Quaternary eruptive centres. Along axis, the low-velocity upwelling beneath the rift is segmented, with low-velocity material in the uppermost 100 km often offset to the side of the rift with the highest rift flank topography. Our observations from this magmatic rift zone, which is transitional between continental and oceanic rifting, do not support detachment fault models of lithospheric extension but instead point to strain accommodation via magma assisted rifting.

Disorganized junior doctors fail the MRCP (UK).

PubMed

Stanley, Adrian G; Khan, Khalid M; Hussain, Walayat; Tweed, Michael

2006-02-01

Career progression during undergraduate and early postgraduate years is currently determined by successfully passing examinations. Both academic factors (secondary school examination results, learning style and training opportunities) and non-academic factors (maturity, ethnic origin, gender and motivation) have been identified as predicting examination outcome. Few studies have examined organization skills. Disorganized medical students are more likely to perform poorly in end-of-year examinations but this observation has not been examined in junior doctors. This study asked whether organization skills relate to examination outcome amongst junior doctors taking the clinical Part II examination for the Membership of the Royal College of Physicians (Practical Assessment of Clinical Examination Skills). The study was conducted prospectively at four consecutive clinical courses that provided clinical teaching and practice to prepare trainees for the examination. Arrival time at registration for the course was the chosen surrogate for organization skills. Trainees were advised that they should arrive promptly at 8.00 a.m. for registration and it was explained that the course would start at 8.30 a.m. Recorded arrival times were compared with the pass lists published by the Royal College of Physicians. The mean arrival time was 8.17 a.m. A total of 81 doctors (53.3%) passed the examination with a mean arrival time of 8.14 a.m. However, 71 doctors failed the exam and arrived, on average, six minutes later than doctors who passed (p?=?0.006). Better-prepared junior doctors were more likely to pass the final examination. Arriving on time represents a composite of several skills involved in the planning of appropriate travel arrangements and is therefore a valid marker of organization skills and preparation. This novel study has shown that good time-keeping skills are positively associated with examination outcome.

Amplitude and angle of arrival measurements on a 28.56 GHz Earth-space path

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Devasirvatham, D. M. J.; Hodge, D. B.

1981-01-01

The amplitude and angle of arrival measurements on an Earth-space path using the 28.56 GHz COMSTAR D3 satellite beacon are described. These measurements were made by the Ohio State University ElectroScience Laboratory during the period September 1978 to September 1979. Monthly, quarterly, and annual distributions of attenuation, angle of arrival, and variance of both these parameters are reported. During this period, fades exceeding 29 dB for .00% of the time and angle of arrival fluctuations exceeding .12 degrees for .01% of the time were observed.

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes, migratory distance, and arrival distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macmynowski, Dena P.; Root, Terry L.

2007-05-01

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979 2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.

Arrival metering fuel consumption analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Arrival metering is a method of time-based traffic management that is used by the Federal Aviation Administration to plan and manage streams of arrival traffic during periods of : high demand at busy airports. The Traffic Management Advisor is an aut...

Insights into Along Strike Variability in the Lau Back Spreading Center and Tonga Arc from Bodywave Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, A. N.; Wiens, D.; Barklage, M.; Conder, J. A.; Wei, S. S.; Cai, C.

2016-12-01

The Lau Backarc Spreading Center (LBSC) and the Tonga Arc offer an excellent location to study the complex interactions between magma production in subduction arcs and backarcs. Although the LBSC is often considered to be an archetype of backarc spreading centers, the system exhibits major along strike changes in surficial and subsurface characteristics - including rift morphology, spreading and subduction rates, rift-arc separation, magma production, and crustal thickness. These variations, together with geochemical evidence, suggest that mixing of arc and backarc magmas may occur at depth beneath the southern LBSC, where the backarc spreading center and the Tonga Arc are most proximal. To investigate magma production and transport beneath the LBSC and the Tonga Arc, this study jointly inverts arrivals from local and teleseismic earthquakes at 51 OBS and 16 land stations to create P- and S-wave upper mantle velocity models. Results from this study show that low velocity zones associated with the LBSC and Tonga Arc are distinctly separated in the north, but merge to a single low velocity zone in the south, supporting prior geochemical evidence for a common source of arc and backarc magmas in the south. Low velocities beneath the LBSC tilt westward with depth, consistent with predictions from numerical models for asymmetrical melting in the mantle wedge. Beneath the central LBSC, low velocities extend to depths of 300 km, suggesting a deep source for melt in some regions.

First arrival time picking for microseismic data based on DWSW algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yue; Wang, Yue; Lin, Hongbo; Zhong, Tie

2018-03-01

The first arrival time picking is a crucial step in microseismic data processing. When the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low, however, it is difficult to get the first arrival time accurately with traditional methods. In this paper, we propose the double-sliding-window SW (DWSW) method based on the Shapiro-Wilk (SW) test. The DWSW method is used to detect the first arrival time by making full use of the differences between background noise and effective signals in the statistical properties. Specifically speaking, we obtain the moment corresponding to the maximum as the first arrival time of microseismic data when the statistic of our method reaches its maximum. Hence, in our method, there is no need to select the threshold, which makes the algorithm more facile when the SNR of microseismic data is low. To verify the reliability of the proposed method, a series of experiments is performed on both synthetic and field microseismic data. Our method is compared with the traditional short-time and long-time average (STA/LTA) method, the Akaike information criterion, and the kurtosis method. Analysis results indicate that the accuracy rate of the proposed method is superior to that of the other three methods when the SNR is as low as - 10 dB.

Order of arrival affects competition in two reef fishes.

PubMed

Geange, Shane W; Stier, Adrian C

2009-10-01

Many communities experience repeated periods of colonization due to seasonally regenerating habitats or pulsed arrival of young-of-year. When an individual's persistence in a community depends upon the strength of competitive interactions, changes in the timing of arrival relative to the arrival of a competitor can modify competitive strength and, ultimately, establishment in the community. We investigated whether the strength of intracohort competitive interactions between recent settlers of the reef fishes Thalassoma hardwicke and T. quinquevittatum are dependent on the sequence and temporal separation of their arrival into communities. To achieve this, we manipulated the sequence and timing of arrival of each species onto experimental patch reefs by simulating settlement pulses and monitoring survival and aggressive interactions. Both species survived best in the absence of competitors, but when competitors were present, they did best when they arrived at the same time. Survival declined as each species entered the community progressively later than its competitor and as aggression by its competitor increased. Intraspecific effects of resident T. hardwicke were similar to interspecific effects. This study shows that the strength of competition depends not only on the identity of competitors, but also on the sequence and timing of their interactions, suggesting that when examining interaction strengths, it is important to identify temporal variability in the direction and magnitude of their effects. Furthermore, our findings provide empirical evidence for the importance of competitive lotteries in the maintenance of species diversity in demographically open marine systems.

Shock characterization of TOAD pins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weirick, L.J.; Navarro, N.J.

1995-08-01

The purpose of this program was to characterize Time Of Arrival Detectors (TOAD) pins response to shock loading with respect to risetime, amplitude, repeatability and consistency. TOAD pins were subjected to impacts of 35 to 420 kilobars amplitude and approximately 1 ms pulse width to investigate the timing spread of four pins and the voltage output profile of the individual pins. Sets of pins were also aged at 45{degrees}, 60{degrees}, and 80{degrees}C for approximately nine weeks before shock testing at 315 kilobars impact stress. Four sets of pins were heated to 50.2{degrees}C (125{degrees}F) for approximately two hours and then impactedmore » at either 50 or 315 kilobars. Also, four sets of pins were aged at 60{degrees}C for nine weeks and then heated to 50.2{degrees}C before shock testing at 50 and 315 kilobars impact stress, respectively. Particle velocity measurements at the contact point between the stainless steel targets and TOAD pins were made using a Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector (VISAR) to monitor both the amplitude and profile of the shock waves.« less

Network theory may explain the vulnerability of medieval human settlements to the Black Death pandemic.

PubMed

Gómez, José M; Verdú, Miguel

2017-03-06

Epidemics can spread across large regions becoming pandemics by flowing along transportation and social networks. Two network attributes, transitivity (when a node is connected to two other nodes that are also directly connected between them) and centrality (the number and intensity of connections with the other nodes in the network), are widely associated with the dynamics of transmission of pathogens. Here we investigate how network centrality and transitivity influence vulnerability to diseases of human populations by examining one of the most devastating pandemic in human history, the fourteenth century plague pandemic called Black Death. We found that, after controlling for the city spatial location and the disease arrival time, cities with higher values of both centrality and transitivity were more severely affected by the plague. A simulation study indicates that this association was due to central cities with high transitivity undergo more exogenous re-infections. Our study provides an easy method to identify hotspots in epidemic networks. Focusing our effort in those vulnerable nodes may save time and resources by improving our ability of controlling deadly epidemics.

ARRIVAL TIME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GRAVITATIONAL WAVES AND ELECTROMAGNETIC SIGNALS DUE TO GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takahashi, Ryuichi

In this study we demonstrate that general relativity predicts arrival time differences between gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) signals caused by the wave effects in gravitational lensing. The GW signals can arrive earlier than the EM signals in some cases if the GW/EM signals have passed through a lens, even if both signals were emitted simultaneously by a source. GW wavelengths are much larger than EM wavelengths; therefore, the propagation of the GWs does not follow the laws of geometrical optics, including the Shapiro time delay, if the lens mass is less than approximately 10{sup 5} M {sub ⊙}(more » f /Hz){sup −1}, where f is the GW frequency. The arrival time difference can reach ∼0.1 s ( f /Hz){sup −1} if the signals have passed by a lens of mass ∼8000 M {sub ⊙}( f /Hz){sup −1} with the impact parameter smaller than the Einstein radius; therefore, it is more prominent for lower GW frequencies. For example, when a distant supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) in a galactic center is lensed by an intervening galaxy, the time lag becomes of the order of 10 days. Future pulsar timing arrays including the Square Kilometre Array and X-ray detectors may detect several time lags by measuring the orbital phase differences between the GW/EM signals in the SMBHBs. Gravitational lensing imprints a characteristic modulation on a chirp waveform; therefore, we can deduce whether a measured arrival time lag arises from intrinsic source properties or gravitational lensing. Determination of arrival time differences would be extremely useful in multimessenger observations and tests of general relativity.« less

Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.

PubMed

O'Neil, Caroline A; Sattenspiel, Lisa

2010-01-01

Previous attempts to study the 1918-1919 flu in three small communities in central Manitoba have used both three-community population-based and single-community agent-based models. These studies identified critical factors influencing epidemic spread, but they also left important questions unanswered. The objective of this project was to design a more realistic agent-based model that would overcome limitations of earlier models and provide new insights into these outstanding questions. The new model extends the previous agent-based model to three communities so that results can be compared to those from the population-based model. Sensitivity testing was conducted, and the new model was used to investigate the influence of seasonal settlement and mobility patterns, the geographic heterogeneity of the observed 1918-1919 epidemic in Manitoba, and other questions addressed previously. Results confirm outcomes from the population-based model that suggest that (a) social organization and mobility strongly influence the timing and severity of epidemics and (b) the impact of the epidemic would have been greater if it had arrived in the summer rather than the winter. New insights from the model suggest that the observed heterogeneity among communities in epidemic impact was not unusual and would have been the expected outcome given settlement structure and levels of interaction among communities. Application of an agent-based computer simulation has helped to better explain observed patterns of spread of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic in central Manitoba. Contrasts between agent-based and population-based models illustrate the advantages of agent-based models for the study of small populations. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

PubMed

Lessler, Justin; Kaufman, James H; Ford, Daniel A; Douglas, Judith V

2009-01-01

Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

Equine disease events resulting from international horse movements: Systematic review and lessons learned.

PubMed

Dominguez, M; Münstermann, S; de Guindos, I; Timoney, P

2016-09-01

An analysis of the factors leading to equine disease events was used to support the development of international recommendations for mitigating the risk of disease dissemination through sport horse movements (high health, high performance - 'HHP' horses). A review was undertaken to identify the factors resulting in equine disease events following international movement of horses to draw lessons in support of the development of international recommendations for the safe movements of a specific subpopulation of horses: the HHP sport horses. Systematic review carried out in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The review covered disease events that occurred from 1995 to 2014, identified from the databases of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and international surveillance reports. Overall, 54 disease events were identified, of which 7 were contained in post arrival quarantine and the others resulted in the introduction of pathogens into importing countries. For 81% of the introductions, the OIE recommendations applicable to the diseases involved had not been complied with. Subclinical infections are a challenge for international trade: 88% of the regulated movements that resulted in introductions involved infected horses that showed no clinical signs at the time of import. Biosecurity and management practices in resident equine populations were identified as important mitigating factors in preventing disease spread to the local horse population. The global increase in international horse movements, if not appropriately regulated and supervised by competent veterinary authorities and respective equine industry partners, could potentially lead to increased global spread of infectious equine diseases. Appropriate mitigation measures and compliance with OIE import recommendations for specific diseases can significantly reduce this risk. The recommendations proposed under the HHP approach take into account the mitigation measures identified by this review as important factors in preventing pathogen introduction and spread. © 2015 EVJ Ltd.

Variation in airborne 137Cs peak levels with altitude from high-altitude locations across Europe after the arrival of Fukushima-labeled air masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson, Olivier; Bieringer, Jacqueline; Dalheimer, Axel; Estier, Sybille; Evrard, Olivier; Penev, Ilia; Ringer, Wolfgang; Schlosser, Clemens; Steinkopff, Thomas; Tositti, Laura; de Vismes-Ott, Anne

2015-04-01

During the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) accident, a dozen of high-altitude aerosol sampling stations, located between 850 and 3,454 m above sea level (a.s.l.), provided airborne activity levels across Europe (Fig. 1). This represents at most 5% of the total number of aerosol sampling locations that delivered airborne activity levels (at least one result) in Europe, in connection with this nuclear accident. High altitude stations are typically equipped with a high volume sampler that collects aerosols on filters. The Fukushima-labeled air mass arrival and the peak of airborne cesium-137 (137Cs) activity levels were registered in Europe at different dates depending on the location, with differences up to a factor of six on a regional scale. Besides this statement related to lowland areas, we have compared the maximum airborne levels registered at high-altitude European locations (850 m < altitudes < 3450 m) with what was observed at the closest lowland location. The vertical distribution of 137Cs peak level was not uniform even after a long travel time/distance from Japan. This being true at least in the atmospheric boundary layer and in the lower free troposphere. Moreover the relation '137Csmax vs. altitude' shows a decreasing trend (Fig. 2). Results and discussion : Comparison of 137Cs and 7Be levels shows simultaneous increases at least when the 137Cs airborne level rose for the first time (Fig. 3). Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch stations attest of a time shift between 7Be and 137Cs peak that can be due to the particular dynamic of air movements at such high altitudes. After the 137Cs peak value, the plume concentration decreased whatever the 7Be level. Due to the cosmogenic origin of 7Be, its increase in the ground-level air is usually associated with downwind air movements, i.e. stratospheric air intrusions or at least air from high-tropospheric levels, into lower atmospheric layers. This means that Fukushima-labeled air masses registered at ground level were transported until Europe at rather high altitudes. This is consistent with 137Cs activity levels and 133Xe observations performed at the tropopause level thanks to aircraft samples over Germany and Switzerland (Estier and Steinmann). This also validates dispersion model computation according to which the Fukushima-labeled air masses were transported to Europe above 5500 m a.s.l. Conclusions : High altitude locations are on 'sentry duty' for radioactive monitoring and cross-border spreading of a contaminated plume. In this sense they can provide useful information on the vertical spreading of radionuclides, reveal arrival times over a given region and make it possible to explain ground deposition levels as a result of interactions of cloud droplets or rain drops with aerosols at high altitude. Beside non-homogeneities encountered on the European scale at lowland locations, this study shows that 137Cs peak activity levels regularly decreased between about 3500 m and less than 1000 m a.s.l. In addition field measurements confirm that air masses travelled at high altitude and that the 137Cs peaks were due to air masses coming from high tropospheric levels. This study also highlights the need to reinforce high-altitude aerosol sampling during emergency situations. This will make it possible to specify the dispersion conditions for modeling purposes and help explaining simulation and observation discrepancies.

Effect of the number of request calls on the time from call to hospital arrival: a cross-sectional study of an ambulance record database in Nara prefecture, Japan.

PubMed

Hanaki, Nao; Yamashita, Kazuto; Kunisawa, Susumu; Imanaka, Yuichi

2016-12-09

In Japan, ambulance staff sometimes must make request calls to find hospitals that can accept patients because of an inadequate information sharing system. This study aimed to quantify effects of the number of request calls on the time interval between an emergency call and hospital arrival. A cross-sectional study of an ambulance records database in Nara prefecture, Japan. A total of 43 663 patients (50% women; 31.2% aged 80 years and over): (1) transported by ambulance from April 2013 to March 2014, (2) aged 15 years and over, and (3) with suspected major illness. The time from call to hospital arrival, defined as the time interval from receipt of an emergency call to ambulance arrival at a hospital. The mean time interval from emergency call to hospital arrival was 44.5 min, and the mean number of requests was 1.8. Multilevel linear regression analysis showed that ∼43.8% of variations in transportation times were explained by patient age, sex, season, day of the week, time, category of suspected illness, person calling for the ambulance, emergency status at request call, area and number of request calls. A higher number of request calls was associated with longer time intervals to hospital arrival (addition of 6.3 min per request call; p<0.001). In an analysis dividing areas into three groups, there were differences in transportation time for diseases needing cardiologists, neurologists, neurosurgeons and orthopaedists. The study revealed 6.3 additional minutes needed in transportation time for every refusal of a request call, and also revealed disease-specific delays among specific areas. An effective system should be collaboratively established by policymakers and physicians to ensure the rapid identification of an available hospital for patient transportation in order to reduce the time from the initial emergency call to hospital arrival. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Effect of the number of request calls on the time from call to hospital arrival: a cross-sectional study of an ambulance record database in Nara prefecture, Japan

PubMed Central

Hanaki, Nao; Yamashita, Kazuto; Kunisawa, Susumu; Imanaka, Yuichi

2016-01-01

Objectives In Japan, ambulance staff sometimes must make request calls to find hospitals that can accept patients because of an inadequate information sharing system. This study aimed to quantify effects of the number of request calls on the time interval between an emergency call and hospital arrival. Design and setting A cross-sectional study of an ambulance records database in Nara prefecture, Japan. Cases A total of 43 663 patients (50% women; 31.2% aged 80 years and over): (1) transported by ambulance from April 2013 to March 2014, (2) aged 15 years and over, and (3) with suspected major illness. Primary outcome measures The time from call to hospital arrival, defined as the time interval from receipt of an emergency call to ambulance arrival at a hospital. Results The mean time interval from emergency call to hospital arrival was 44.5 min, and the mean number of requests was 1.8. Multilevel linear regression analysis showed that ∼43.8% of variations in transportation times were explained by patient age, sex, season, day of the week, time, category of suspected illness, person calling for the ambulance, emergency status at request call, area and number of request calls. A higher number of request calls was associated with longer time intervals to hospital arrival (addition of 6.3 min per request call; p<0.001). In an analysis dividing areas into three groups, there were differences in transportation time for diseases needing cardiologists, neurologists, neurosurgeons and orthopaedists. Conclusions The study revealed 6.3 additional minutes needed in transportation time for every refusal of a request call, and also revealed disease-specific delays among specific areas. An effective system should be collaboratively established by policymakers and physicians to ensure the rapid identification of an available hospital for patient transportation in order to reduce the time from the initial emergency call to hospital arrival. PMID:27940625

Impact of lean six sigma process improvement methodology on cardiac catheterization laboratory efficiency.

PubMed

Agarwal, Shikhar; Gallo, Justin J; Parashar, Akhil; Agarwal, Kanika K; Ellis, Stephen G; Khot, Umesh N; Spooner, Robin; Murat Tuzcu, Emin; Kapadia, Samir R

2016-03-01

Operational inefficiencies are ubiquitous in several healthcare processes. To improve the operational efficiency of our catheterization laboratory (Cath Lab), we implemented a lean six sigma process improvement initiative, starting in June 2010. We aimed to study the impact of lean six sigma implementation on improving the efficiency and the patient throughput in our Cath Lab. All elective and urgent cardiac catheterization procedures including diagnostic coronary angiography, percutaneous coronary interventions, structural interventions and peripheral interventions performed between June 2009 and December 2012 were included in the study. Performance metrics utilized for analysis included turn-time, physician downtime, on-time patient arrival, on-time physician arrival, on-time start and manual sheath-pulls inside the Cath Lab. After implementation of lean six sigma in the Cath Lab, we observed a significant improvement in turn-time, physician downtime, on-time patient arrival, on-time physician arrival, on-time start as well as sheath-pulls inside the Cath Lab. The percentage of cases with optimal turn-time increased from 43.6% in 2009 to 56.6% in 2012 (p-trend<0.001). Similarly, the percentage of cases with an aggregate on-time start increased from 41.7% in 2009 to 62.8% in 2012 (p-trend<0.001). In addition, the percentage of manual sheath-pulls performed in the Cath Lab decreased from 60.7% in 2009 to 22.7% in 2012 (p-trend<0.001). The current longitudinal study illustrates the impact of successful implementation of a well-known process improvement initiative, lean six sigma, on improving and sustaining efficiency of our Cath Lab operation. After the successful implementation of this continuous quality improvement initiative, there was a significant improvement in the selected performance metrics namely turn-time, physician downtime, on-time patient arrival, on-time physician arrival, on-time start as well as sheath-pulls inside the Cath Lab. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early Human Migrations (ca. 13,000 Years Ago) or Postcontact Europeans for the Earliest Spread of Mycobacterium leprae and Mycobacterium lepromatosis to the Americas

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

For over a century, it has been widely accepted that leprosy did not exist in the Americas before the arrival of Europeans. This proposition was based on a combination of historical, paleopathological, and representational studies. Further support came from molecular studies in 2005 and 2009 that four Mycobacterium leprae single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and then 16 SNP subtypes correlated with general geographic regions, suggesting the M. leprae subtypes in the Americas were consistent with European strains. Shortly thereafter, a number of studies proposed that leprosy first came to the Americas with human migrations around 12,000 or 13,000 years ago. These studies are based primarily on subsequent molecular data, especially the discovery of a new leprosy species Mycobacterium lepromatosis and its close association with diffuse lepromatous leprosy, a severe, aggressive form of lepromatous leprosy, which is most common in Mexico and the Caribbean Islands. A review of these and subsequent molecular data finds no evidence for either leprosy species in the Americas before the arrival of Europeans, and strains of both species of leprosy found in eastern Mexico, Caribbean Islands, and Brazil came from Europe while strains found in western Mexico are consistent with their arrival via direct voyages from the Philippines. PMID:29250112

Onchocerciasis in the Americas: from arrival to (near) elimination

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Onchocerciasis (river blindness) is a blinding parasitic disease that threatens the health of approximately 120 million people worldwide. While 99% of the population at-risk for infection from onchocerciasis live in Africa, some 500,000 people in the Americas are also threatened by infection. A relatively recent arrival to the western hemisphere, onchocerciasis was brought to the New World through the slave trade and spread through migration. The centuries since its arrival have seen advances in diagnosing, mapping and treating the disease. Once endemic to six countries in the Americas (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico and Venezuela), onchocerciasis is on track for interruption of transmission in the Americas by 2012, in line with Pan American Health Organization resolution CD48.R12. The success of this public health program is due to a robust public-private partnership involving national governments, local communities, donor organizations, intergovernmental bodies, academic institutions, non-profit organizations and the pharmaceutical industry. The lessons learned through the efforts in the Americas are in turn informing the program to control and eliminate onchocerciasis in Africa. However, continued support and investment are needed for program implementation and post-treatment surveillance to protect the gains to-date and ensure complete elimination is achieved and treatment can be safely stopped within all 13 regional foci. PMID:22024050

Early Human Migrations (ca. 13,000 Years Ago) or Postcontact Europeans for the Earliest Spread of Mycobacterium leprae and Mycobacterium lepromatosis to the Americas.

PubMed

Mark, Samuel

2017-01-01

For over a century, it has been widely accepted that leprosy did not exist in the Americas before the arrival of Europeans. This proposition was based on a combination of historical, paleopathological, and representational studies. Further support came from molecular studies in 2005 and 2009 that four Mycobacterium leprae single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and then 16 SNP subtypes correlated with general geographic regions, suggesting the M. leprae subtypes in the Americas were consistent with European strains. Shortly thereafter, a number of studies proposed that leprosy first came to the Americas with human migrations around 12,000 or 13,000 years ago. These studies are based primarily on subsequent molecular data, especially the discovery of a new leprosy species Mycobacterium lepromatosis and its close association with diffuse lepromatous leprosy, a severe, aggressive form of lepromatous leprosy, which is most common in Mexico and the Caribbean Islands. A review of these and subsequent molecular data finds no evidence for either leprosy species in the Americas before the arrival of Europeans, and strains of both species of leprosy found in eastern Mexico, Caribbean Islands, and Brazil came from Europe while strains found in western Mexico are consistent with their arrival via direct voyages from the Philippines.

An experimental study on real time bus arrival time prediction with GPS data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

Bus headway in a rural area is usually much larger than that in an urban area. Providing real-time bus : arrival information could make the public transit system more user-friendly and thus enhance its : competitiveness among various transportation m...

An experimental study on real time bus arrival time prediction with GPS data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

Bus headway in a rural area usually is much larger than that in an urban area. Providing real-time bus arrival information could make the public transit system more user-friendly and thus enhance its competitiveness among various transportation modes...

Evaluation of the real-time earthquake information system in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Horiuchi, Shigeki; Wu, Changjiang; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Rydelek, Paul A.

2009-01-01

The real-time earthquake information system (REIS) of the Japanese seismic network is developed for automatically determining earthquake parameters within a few seconds after the P-waves arrive at the closest stations using both the P-wave arrival times and the timing data that P-waves have not yet arrived at other stations. REIS results play a fundamental role in the real-time information for earthquake early warning in Japan. We show the rapidity and accuracy of REIS from the analysis of 4,050 earthquakes in three years since 2005; 44 percent of the first reports are issued within 5 seconds after the first P-wave arrival and 80 percent of the events have a difference in epicenter distance less than 20 km relative to manually determined locations. We compared the formal catalog to the estimated magnitude from the real-time analysis and found that 94 percent of the events had a magnitude difference of +/-1.0 unit.

Ice-age megafauna in Arctic Alaska: extinction, invasion, survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mann, Daniel H.; Groves, Pamela; Kunz, Michael L.; Reanier, Richard E.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.

2013-01-01

Radical restructuring of the terrestrial, large mammal fauna living in arctic Alaska occurred between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. Steppe bison, horse, and woolly mammoth became extinct, moose and humans invaded, while muskox and caribou persisted. The ice age megafauna was more diverse in species and possibly contained 6× more individual animals than live in the region today. Megafaunal biomass during the last ice age may have been 30× greater than present. Horse was the dominant species in terms of number of individuals. Lions, short-faced bears, wolves, and possibly grizzly bears comprised the predator/scavenger guild. The youngest mammoth so far discovered lived ca 13,800 years ago, while horses and bison persisted on the North Slope until at least 12,500 years ago during the Younger Dryas cold interval. The first people arrived on the North Slope ca 13,500 years ago. Bone-isotope measurements and foot-loading characteristics suggest megafaunal niches were segregated along a moisture gradient, with the surviving species (muskox and caribou) utilizing the warmer and moister portions of the vegetation mosaic. As the ice age ended, the moisture gradient shifted and eliminated habitats utilized by the dryland, grazing species (bison, horse, mammoth). The proximate cause for this change was regional paludification, the spread of organic soil horizons and peat. End-Pleistocene extinctions in arctic Alaska represent local, not global extinctions since the megafaunal species lost there persisted to later times elsewhere. Hunting seems unlikely as the cause of these extinctions, but it cannot be ruled out as the final blow to megafaunal populations that were already functionally extinct by the time humans arrived in the region.

Ice-age megafauna in Arctic Alaska: extinction, invasion, survival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Daniel H.; Groves, Pamela; Kunz, Michael L.; Reanier, Richard E.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.

2013-06-01

Radical restructuring of the terrestrial, large mammal fauna living in arctic Alaska occurred between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. Steppe bison, horse, and woolly mammoth became extinct, moose and humans invaded, while muskox and caribou persisted. The ice age megafauna was more diverse in species and possibly contained 6× more individual animals than live in the region today. Megafaunal biomass during the last ice age may have been 30× greater than present. Horse was the dominant species in terms of number of individuals. Lions, short-faced bears, wolves, and possibly grizzly bears comprised the predator/scavenger guild. The youngest mammoth so far discovered lived ca 13,800 years ago, while horses and bison persisted on the North Slope until at least 12,500 years ago during the Younger Dryas cold interval. The first people arrived on the North Slope ca 13,500 years ago. Bone-isotope measurements and foot-loading characteristics suggest megafaunal niches were segregated along a moisture gradient, with the surviving species (muskox and caribou) utilizing the warmer and moister portions of the vegetation mosaic. As the ice age ended, the moisture gradient shifted and eliminated habitats utilized by the dryland, grazing species (bison, horse, mammoth). The proximate cause for this change was regional paludification, the spread of organic soil horizons and peat. End-Pleistocene extinctions in arctic Alaska represent local, not global extinctions since the megafaunal species lost there persisted to later times elsewhere. Hunting seems unlikely as the cause of these extinctions, but it cannot be ruled out as the final blow to megafaunal populations that were already functionally extinct by the time humans arrived in the region.

An Investigation of the Combat Air Patrol Stationing in an Integrated Air Defense Scenario

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

interceptor to go to CAP station takes off at time t = 0. At time t = toc this interceptor arrives at station and, because no attacker arrives, it...has arrived on station and for this to be possible, the third interceptor has taken off at time t = toc + 2tn - to= = 2t. Meanwhile, the first...that tc > 0 and (tbc + tnp + tA) > 0. Under these assumptions we have that aircraft number 2 will always be used because ( toc + t= + tj, + te + tAI

Impulse propagation in the nocturnal boundary layer: analysis of the geometric component.

PubMed

Blom, Philip; Waxler, Roger

2012-05-01

On clear dry nights over flat land, a temperature inversion and stable nocturnal wind jet lead to an acoustic duct in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere. An impulsive signal propagating in such a duct is received at long ranges from the source as an extended wave train consisting of a series of weakly dispersed distinct arrivals followed by a strongly dispersed low-frequency tail. The leading distinct arrivals have been previously shown to be well modeled by geometric acoustics. In this paper, the geometric acoustics approximation for the leading arrivals is investigated. Using the solutions of the eikonal and transport equations, travel times, amplitudes, and caustic structures of the distinct arrivals have been determined. The time delay between and relative amplitudes of the direct-refracted and single ground reflection arrivals have been investigated as parameters for an inversion scheme. A two parameter quadratic approximation to the effective sound speed profile has been fit and found to be in strong agreement with meteorological measurements from the time of propagation.

Strengthening economy through tourism sector by tourist arrival prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriatna, A.; Subartini, B.; Hertini, E.; Sukono; Rumaisha; Istiqamah, N.

2018-03-01

Tourism sector has a tendency to be proposed as a support for national economy to many countries with various of natural resources, such as Indonesia. The number of tourist is very related with the success rate of a tourist attraction, since it is also related with planning and strategy. Hence, it is important to predict the climate of tourism in Indonesia, especially the number of domestic or international tourist in the future. This study uses Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series method to predict the number of tourist arrival to tourism strategic areas in Nusa Tenggara Barat. The prediction was done using the international and domestic tourist arrival to Nusa Tenggara Barat data from January 2008 to June 2016. The established SARIMA method was (0,1,1)(0,0,2)12 with MAPE error of 15.76. The prediction for the next six time periods showed that the highest number of tourist arrival is during September 2016 with 330,516 tourist arrivals. Prediction of tourist arrival hopefully might be used as reference for local and national government to make policies to strengthen national economy for a long period of time

Nonlinear Localized Dissipative Structures for Long-Time Solution of Wave Equation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

are described in this chapter. These details are required to compute interference. WC can be used to generate constant arrival time ( Eikonal phase...complicated using Eikonal schemes. Some recent developments in Eikonal methods [2] can treat multiple arrival times but, these methods require extra

Separation of the electromagnetic and the muon component in EAS by their arrival times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brüggemann, M.; Apel, W.D.; Arteaga, J.C.; Badea, F.; Bekk, K.; Bertaina, M.; Blümer, J.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I.M.; Buchholz, P.; Chiavassa, A.; Cossavella, F.; Daumiller, K.; de Souza, V.; Di Pierro, F.; Doll, P.; Engel, R.; Engler, J.; Finger, M.; Fuhrmann, D.; Ghia, P.L.; Gils, H.J.; Glasstetter, R.; Grupen, C.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hörandel, J.R.; Huege, T.; Isar, P.G.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kickelbick, D.; Klages, H.O.; Kolotaev, Y.; Luczak, P.; Mathes, H.J.; Mayer, H.J.; Meurer, C.; Milke, J.; Mitrica, B.; Morales, A.; Morello, C.; Navarra, G.; Nehls, S.; Oehlschläger, J.; Ostapchenko, S.; Over, S.; Petcu, M.; Pierog, T.; Plewnia, S.; Rebel, H.; Roth, M.; Schieler, H.; Sima, O.; Stümpert, M.; Toma, G.; Trinchero, G.C.; Ulrich, H.; van Buren, J.; Walkowiak, W.; Weindl, A.; Wochele, J.; Zabierowski, J.

The KASCADE-Grande experiment at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany, measures extensive air showers initiated by primary particles with energies between 100 TeV and 1 EeV. Detector pulses digitized by a Flash-ADC based data acquisition system were unfolded to study the arrival times of secondary particles separately for the electromagnetic and the muonic shower component. Muons arrive on average earlier at ground level than electrons. A cut on the particle arrival time has been determined as a function of the distance to the shower core for the separation of electrons and muons. This cut is intended to be used for the determination of the muon content of air showers in experiments without dedicated muon detectors but with time resolving detector electronics. The muon content is essential for the reconstruction of the cosmic ray energy spectrum separated into individual elemental groups.

Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaltout, Mosalam

Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks Mosalam Shaltout1 ,M.Youssef 1and R.Mawad2 1 National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG) ,Helwan -Cairo-Egypt Email: mosalamshaltout@hotmail.com 2 Faculty of Science-Monifiia University-Physics Department-Shiben Al-Koum -Monifiia-Egypt We are got the Data of the SSC events from Preliminary Reports of the ISGI (Institut de Physique du Globe, France) .Also we are selected the same CME interval 1996-2005 from SOHO/LASCO/C2.We have estimated the arrival time of ICME shocks during solar cycle 23rd (1996-2005), we take the Sudden storm commencement SSC as a indicator of the arrival of CMEs at the Earth's Magnetosphere (ICME).Under our model ,we selected 203 ICME shock-SSC associated events, we got an imperial relation between CME velocity and their travel time, from which we obtained high correlation between them, R=0.75.

A study on the impact of prioritising emergency department arrivals on the patient waiting time.

PubMed

Van Bockstal, Ellen; Maenhout, Broos

2018-05-03

In the past decade, the crowding of the emergency department has gained considerable attention of researchers as the number of medical service providers is typically insufficient to fulfil the demand for emergency care. In this paper, we solve the stochastic emergency department workforce planning problem and consider the planning of nurses and physicians simultaneously for a real-life case study in Belgium. We study the patient arrival pattern of the emergency department in depth and consider different patient acuity classes by disaggregating the arrival pattern. We determine the personnel staffing requirements and the design of the shifts based on the patient arrival rates per acuity class such that the resource staffing cost and the weighted patient waiting time are minimised. In order to solve this multi-objective optimisation problem, we construct a Pareto set of optimal solutions via the -constraints method. For a particular staffing composition, the proposed model minimises the patient waiting time subject to upper bounds on the staffing size using the Sample Average Approximation Method. In our computational experiments, we discern the impact of prioritising the emergency department arrivals. Triaging results in lower patient waiting times for higher priority acuity classes and to a higher waiting time for the lowest priority class, which does not require immediate care. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis to verify the impact of the arrival and service pattern characteristics, the prioritisation weights between different acuity classes and the incorporated shift flexibility in the model.

Fiber optic sensor employing successively destroyed coupled points or reflectors for detecting shock wave speed and damage location

DOEpatents

Weiss, Jonathan D.

1995-01-01

A shock velocity and damage location sensor providing a means of measuring shock speed and damage location. The sensor consists of a long series of time-of-arrival "points" constructed with fiber optics. The fiber optic sensor apparatus measures shock velocity as the fiber sensor is progressively crushed as a shock wave proceeds in a direction along the fiber. The light received by a receiving means changes as time-of-arrival points are destroyed as the sensor is disturbed by the shock. The sensor may comprise a transmitting fiber bent into a series of loops and fused to a receiving fiber at various places, time-of-arrival points, along the receiving fibers length. At the "points" of contact, where a portion of the light leaves the transmitting fiber and enters the receiving fiber, the loops would be required to allow the light to travel backwards through the receiving fiber toward a receiving means. The sensor may also comprise a single optical fiber wherein the time-of-arrival points are comprised of reflection planes distributed along the fibers length. In this configuration, as the shock front proceeds along the fiber it destroys one reflector after another. The output received by a receiving means from this sensor may be a series of downward steps produced as the shock wave destroys one time-of-arrival point after another, or a nonsequential pattern of steps in the event time-of-arrival points are destroyed at any point along the sensor.

Fiber optic sensor employing successively destroyed coupled points or reflectors for detecting shock wave speed and damage location

DOEpatents

Weiss, J.D.

1995-08-29

A shock velocity and damage location sensor providing a means of measuring shock speed and damage location is disclosed. The sensor consists of a long series of time-of-arrival ``points`` constructed with fiber optics. The fiber optic sensor apparatus measures shock velocity as the fiber sensor is progressively crushed as a shock wave proceeds in a direction along the fiber. The light received by a receiving means changes as time-of-arrival points are destroyed as the sensor is disturbed by the shock. The sensor may comprise a transmitting fiber bent into a series of loops and fused to a receiving fiber at various places, time-of-arrival points, along the receiving fibers length. At the ``points`` of contact, where a portion of the light leaves the transmitting fiber and enters the receiving fiber, the loops would be required to allow the light to travel backwards through the receiving fiber toward a receiving means. The sensor may also comprise a single optical fiber wherein the time-of-arrival points are comprised of reflection planes distributed along the fibers length. In this configuration, as the shock front proceeds along the fiber it destroys one reflector after another. The output received by a receiving means from this sensor may be a series of downward steps produced as the shock wave destroys one time-of-arrival point after another, or a nonsequential pattern of steps in the event time-of-arrival points are destroyed at any point along the sensor. 6 figs.

Crossing fitness canyons by a finite population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saakian, David B.; Bratus, Alexander S.; Hu, Chin-Kun

2017-06-01

We consider the Wright-Fisher model of the finite population evolution on a fitness landscape defined in the sequence space by a path of nearly neutral mutations. We study a specific structure of the fitness landscape: One of the intermediate mutations on the mutation path results in either a large fitness value (climbing up a fitness hill) or a low fitness value (crossing a fitness canyon), the rest of the mutations besides the last one are neutral, and the last sequence has much higher fitness than any intermediate sequence. We derive analytical formulas for the first arrival time of the mutant with two point mutations. For the first arrival problem for the further mutants in the case of canyon crossing, we analytically deduce how the mean first arrival time scales with the population size and fitness difference. The location of the canyon on the path of sequences has a crucial role. If the canyon is at the beginning of the path, then it significantly prolongs the first arrival time; otherwise it just slightly changes it. Furthermore, the fitness hill at the beginning of the path strongly prolongs the arrival time period; however, the hill located near the end of the path shortens it. We optimize the first arrival time by applying a nonzero selection to the intermediate sequences. We extend our results and provide a scaling for the valley crossing time via the depth of the canyon and population size in the case of a fitness canyon at the first position. Our approach is useful for understanding some complex evolution systems, e.g., the evolution of cancer.

Reducing time-to-unit among patients referred to an outpatient stroke assessment unit with a novel triage process: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Bibok, Maximilian B; Votova, Kristine; Balshaw, Robert F; Lesperance, Mary L; Croteau, Nicole S; Trivedi, Anurag; Morrison, Jaclyn; Sedgwick, Colin; Penn, Andrew M

2018-02-27

To evaluate the performance of a novel triage system for Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA) units built upon an existent clinical prediction rule (CPR) to reduce time to unit arrival, relative to the time of symptom onset, for true TIA and minor stroke patients. Differentiating between true and false TIA/minor stroke cases (mimics) is necessary for effective triage as medical intervention for true TIA/minor stroke is time-sensitive and TIA unit spots are a finite resource. Prospective cohort study design utilizing patient referral data and TIA unit arrival times from a regional fast-track TIA unit on Vancouver Island, Canada, accepting referrals from emergency departments (ED) and general practice (GP). Historical referral cohort (N = 2942) from May 2013-Oct 2014 was triaged using the ABCD2 score; prospective referral cohort (N = 2929) from Nov 2014-Apr 2016 was triaged using the novel system. A retrospective survival curve analysis, censored at 28 days to unit arrival, was used to compare days to unit arrival from event date between cohort patients matched by low (0-3), moderate (4-5) and high (6-7) ABCD2 scores. Survival curve analysis indicated that using the novel triage system, prospectively referred TIA/minor stroke patients with low and moderate ABCD2 scores arrived at the unit 2 and 1 day earlier than matched historical patients, respectively. The novel triage process is associated with a reduction in time to unit arrival from symptom onset for referred true TIA/minor stroke patients with low and moderate ABCD2 scores.

Aorta Balloon Occlusion in Trauma: Three Cases Demonstrating Multidisciplinary Approach Already on Patient’s Arrival to the Emergency Room

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hörer, Tal M., E-mail: tal.horer@orebroll.se; Hebron, Dan; Swaid, Forat

PurposeTo describe the usage of aortic balloon occlusion (ABO), based on a multidisciplinary approach in severe trauma patients, emphasizing the role of the interventional radiologist in primary trauma care.MethodsWe briefly discuss the relevant literature, the technical aspects of ABO in trauma, and a multidisciplinary approach to the bleeding trauma patient. We describe three severely injured trauma patients for whom ABO was part of initial trauma management.ResultsThree severely injured multi-trauma patients were treated by ABO as a bridge to surgery and embolization. The procedures were performed by an interventional radiologist in the early stages of trauma management.ConclusionsThe interventional radiologist and themore » multidisciplinary team approach can be activated already on severe trauma patient arrival. ABO usage and other endovascular methods are becoming more widely spread, and can be used early in trauma management, without delay, thus justifying the early activation of this multidisciplinary approach.« less

Characterization of compounds by time-of-flight measurement utilizing random fast ions

DOEpatents

Conzemius, R.J.

1989-04-04

An apparatus is described for characterizing the mass of sample and daughter particles, comprising a source for providing sample ions; a fragmentation region wherein a fraction of the sample ions may fragment to produce daughter ion particles; an electrostatic field region held at a voltage level sufficient to effect ion-neutral separation and ion-ion separation of fragments from the same sample ion and to separate ions of different kinetic energy; a detector system for measuring the relative arrival times of particles; and processing means operatively connected to the detector system to receive and store the relative arrival times and operable to compare the arrival times with times detected at the detector when the electrostatic field region is held at a different voltage level and to thereafter characterize the particles. Sample and daughter particles are characterized with respect to mass and other characteristics by detecting at a particle detector the relative time of arrival for fragments of a sample ion at two different electrostatic voltage levels. The two sets of particle arrival times are used in conjunction with the known altered voltage levels to mathematically characterize the sample and daughter fragments. In an alternative embodiment the present invention may be used as a detector for a conventional mass spectrometer. In this embodiment, conventional mass spectrometry analysis is enhanced due to further mass resolving of the detected ions. 8 figs.

Characterization of compounds by time-of-flight measurement utilizing random fast ions

DOEpatents

Conzemius, Robert J.

1989-01-01

An apparatus for characterizing the mass of sample and daughter particles, comprising a source for providing sample ions; a fragmentation region wherein a fraction of the sample ions may fragment to produce daughter ion particles; an electrostatic field region held at a voltage level sufficient to effect ion-neutral separation and ion-ion separation of fragments from the same sample ion and to separate ions of different kinetic energy; a detector system for measuring the relative arrival times of particles; and processing means operatively connected to the detector system to receive and store the relative arrival times and operable to compare the arrival times with times detected at the detector when the electrostatic field region is held at a different voltage level and to thereafter characterize the particles. Sample and daughter particles are characterized with respect to mass and other characteristics by detecting at a particle detector the relative time of arrival for fragments of a sample ion at two different electrostatic voltage levels. The two sets of particle arrival times are used in conjunction with the known altered voltage levels to mathematically characterize the sample and daughter fragments. In an alternative embodiment the present invention may be used as a detector for a conventional mass spectrometer. In this embodiment, conventional mass spectrometry analysis is enhanced due to further mass resolving of the detected ions.

Processing of the Liquid Xenon calorimeter's signals for timing measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epshteyn, L. B.; Yudin, Yu V.

2014-09-01

One of the goals of the Cryogenic Magnetic Detector at Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics SB RAS (Novosibirsk, Russia) is a study of nucleons production in electron-positron collisions near threshold. The neutron-antineutron pair production events can be detected only by the calorimeters. In the barrel calorimeter the antineutron annihilation typically occurs by 5 ns or later after beams crossing. For identification of such events it is necessary to measure the time of flight of particles to the LXe-calorimeter with accuracy of about 3 ns. The LXe-calorimeter consists of 14 layers of ionization chambers with anode and cathode readout. The duration of charge collection to the anodes is about 4.5 mks, while the required accuracy of measuring of the signal arrival time is less than 1/1000 of that. Besides, the signals' shapes differ substantially from event to event, so the signal arrival time is measured in two stages. At the first stage, the signal arrival time is determined with an accuracy of 1-2 discretization periods, and initial values of parameters for subsequent fitting procedure are calculated. At the second stage, the signal arrival time is determined with the required accuracy by means of fitting of the signal waveform with a template waveform. To implement that, a special electronics has been developed which performs waveform digitization and On-Line measurement of signals' arrival times and amplitudes.

Comparison of helicopter and ground emergency medical service: a retrospective analysis of a German rescue helicopter base.

PubMed

Mommsen, Philipp; Bradt, Nikolas; Zeckey, Christian; Andruszkow, Hagen; Petri, Max; Frink, Michael; Hildebrand, Frank; Krettek, Christian; Probst, Christian

2012-01-01

In consideration of rising cost pressure in the German health care system, the usefulness of helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) in terms of time- and cost-effectiveness is controversially discussed. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether HEMS is associated with significantly decreased arrival and transportation times compared to ground EMS. In a retrospective study, we evaluated 1,548 primary emergency missions for time sensitive diagnoses (multiple trauma, traumatic brain and burn injury, heart-attack, stroke, and pediatric emergency) performed by a German HEMS using the medical database, NADIN, of the German Air Rescue Service. Arrival and transportation times were compared to calculated ground EMS times. HEMS showed significantly reduced arrival times at the scene in case of heart-attack, stroke and pediatric emergencies. In contrast, HEMS and ground EMS showed comparable arrival times in patients with multiple trauma, traumatic brain and burn injury due to an increased flight distance. HEMS showed a significantly decreased transportation time to the closest centre capable of specialist care in all diagnosis groups (p<0.001). The results of the present study indicate the time-effectiveness of German air ambulance services with significantly decreased transportation times.

The feasibility, time savings and economic impact of a designated time appointment system at a busy HIV care clinic in Kenya: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Kwena, Zachary A; Njoroge, Betty W; Cohen, Craig R; Oyaro, Patrick; Shikari, Rosemary; Kibaara, Charles K; Bukusi, Elizabeth A

2015-01-01

As efforts are made to reach universal access to ART in Kenya, the problem of congestion at HIV care clinics is likely to worsen. We evaluated the feasibility and the economic benefits of a designated time appointment system as a solution to decongest HIV care clinics. This was an explanatory two-arm open-label randomized controlled trial that enrolled 354 consenting participants during their normal clinic days and followed-up at subsequent clinic appointments for up to nine months. Intervention arm participants were given specific dates and times to arrive at the clinic for their next appointment while those in the control arm were only given the date and had the discretion to decide on the time to arrive as is the standard practice. At follow-up visits, we recorded arrival and departure times and asked the monetary value of work participants engaged in before and after clinic. We conducted multiple imputation to replace missing data in our primary outcome variables to allow for intention-to-treat analysis; and analyzed the data using Mann-Whitney U test. Overall, 72.1% of the intervention participants arrived on time, 13.3% arrived ahead of time and 14.6% arrived past scheduled time. Intervention arm participants spent a median of 65 [interquartile range (IQR), 52-87] minutes at the clinic compared to 197 (IQR, 173-225) minutes for control participants (p<0.01). Furthermore, intervention arm participants were more productively engaged on their clinic days valuing their cumulative work at a median of USD 10.5 (IQR, 60.0-16.8) compared to participants enrolled in the control arm who valued their work at USD 8.3 (IQR, 5.5-12.9; p=0.02). A designated time appointment system is feasible and provides substantial time savings associated with greater economic productivity for HIV patients attending a busy HIV care clinic.

Observation of arrival times of EAS with energies or = 6 x 10 (14) eV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, L.

1985-01-01

The Earth's atmosphere is continually being bombarded by primary cosmic ray particles which are generally believed to be high-energy nuclei. The fact that the majority of cosmic ray primaries are charged particles and that space is permeated with random magnetic fields, means that the particles do not travel in straight lines. The arrival time distribution of EAS may also transfer some information about the primary particles. Actually, if the particles come to our Earth in a completely random process, the arrival time distribution of pairs of successive particles should fit an exponential law. The work reported here was arried out at Sydney University from May 1982 to January 1983. All the data are used to plot the arrival-time distribution of the events, that is, the distribution of time-separation between consecutive events on a 1 minute bin size. During this period more than 2300 showers were recorded. The results are discussed and compared with that of some other experiments.

Accurate seismic phase identification and arrival time picking of glacial icequakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G. A.; Doyle, S. H.; Dow, C.; Kulessa, B.; Hubbard, A.

2010-12-01

A catastrophic lake drainage event was monitored continuously using an array of 6, 4.5 Hz 3 component geophones in the Russell Glacier catchment, Western Greenland. Many thousands of events and arrival time phases (e.g., P- or S-wave) were recorded, often with events occurring simultaneously but at different locations. In addition, different styles of seismic events were identified from 'classical' tectonic earthquakes to tremors usually observed in volcanic regions. The presence of such a diverse and large dataset provides insight into the complex system of lake drainage. One of the most fundamental steps in seismology is the accurate identification of a seismic event and its associated arrival times. However, the collection of such a large and complex dataset makes the manual identification of a seismic event and picking of the arrival time phases time consuming with variable results. To overcome the issues of consistency and manpower, a number of different methods have been developed including short-term and long-term averages, spectrograms, wavelets, polarisation analyses, higher order statistics and auto-regressive techniques. Here we propose an automated procedure which establishes the phase type and accurately determines the arrival times. The procedure combines a number of different automated methods to achieve this, and is applied to the recently acquired lake drainage data. Accurate identification of events and their arrival time phases are the first steps in gaining a greater understanding of the extent of the deformation and the mechanism of such drainage events. A good knowledge of the propagation pathway of lake drainage meltwater through a glacier will have significant consequences for interpretation of glacial and ice sheet dynamics.

Rescue of endemic states in interconnected networks with adaptive coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vazquez, F.; Serrano, M. Ángeles; Miguel, M. San

2016-07-01

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of epidemic spreading on two layers of networks interconnected by adaptive links, which are rewired at random to avoid contacts between infected and susceptible nodes at the interlayer. We find that the rewiring reduces the effective connectivity for the transmission of the disease between layers, and may even totally decouple the networks. Weak endemic states, in which the epidemics spreads when the two layers are interconnected but not in each layer separately, show a transition from the endemic to the healthy phase when the rewiring overcomes a threshold value that depends on the infection rate, the strength of the coupling and the mean connectivity of the networks. In the strong endemic scenario, in which the epidemics is able to spread on each separate network -and therefore on the interconnected system- the prevalence in each layer decreases when increasing the rewiring, arriving to single network values only in the limit of infinitely fast rewiring. We also find that rewiring amplifies finite-size effects, preventing the disease transmission between finite networks, as there is a non zero probability that the epidemics stays confined in only one network during its lifetime.

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karsai, Márton; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kikas, Riivo; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2016-06-01

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world’s largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions—induced by a single adopting neighbour—appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading.

Rescue of endemic states in interconnected networks with adaptive coupling

PubMed Central

Vazquez, F.; Serrano, M. Ángeles; Miguel, M. San

2016-01-01

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of epidemic spreading on two layers of networks interconnected by adaptive links, which are rewired at random to avoid contacts between infected and susceptible nodes at the interlayer. We find that the rewiring reduces the effective connectivity for the transmission of the disease between layers, and may even totally decouple the networks. Weak endemic states, in which the epidemics spreads when the two layers are interconnected but not in each layer separately, show a transition from the endemic to the healthy phase when the rewiring overcomes a threshold value that depends on the infection rate, the strength of the coupling and the mean connectivity of the networks. In the strong endemic scenario, in which the epidemics is able to spread on each separate network –and therefore on the interconnected system– the prevalence in each layer decreases when increasing the rewiring, arriving to single network values only in the limit of infinitely fast rewiring. We also find that rewiring amplifies finite-size effects, preventing the disease transmission between finite networks, as there is a non zero probability that the epidemics stays confined in only one network during its lifetime. PMID:27380771

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

PubMed Central

Karsai, Márton; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kikas, Riivo; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2016-01-01

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world’s largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions—induced by a single adopting neighbour—appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading. PMID:27272744

Hydrogen Isotopes as a Sentinel of Biological Invasion by the Japanese Beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman)

PubMed Central

Ogle, Kiona; Caron, Melanie; Marks, Jane C.; Rogg, Helmuth W.

2016-01-01

Invasive species alter ecosystems, threaten native and endangered species, and have negative economic impacts. Knowing where invading individuals are from and when they arrive to a new site can guide management. Here, we evaluated how well the stable hydrogen isotope composition (δ2H) records the recent origin and time since arrival of specimens of the invasive Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica Newman) captured near the Portland International Airport (Oregon, U.S.A.). The δ2H of Japanese beetle specimens collected from sites across the contiguous U.S.A. reflected the δ2H of local precipitation, a relationship similar to that documented for other organisms, and one confirming the utility of δ2H as a geographic fingerprint. Within weeks after experimental relocation to a new isotopic environment, the δ2H of beetles changed linearly with time, demonstrating the potential for δ2H to also mark the timing of arrival to a new location. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the recent geographical origin and timing of arrival of each specimen based on its δ2H value. The geographic resolution was broad, with values consistent with multiple regions of origin in the eastern U.S.A., slightly favoring the southeastern U.S.A. as the more likely source. Beetles trapped from 2007–2010 had arrived 30 or more days prior to trapping, whereas the median time since arrival declined to 3–7 days for beetles trapped from 2012–2014. This reduction in the time between arrival and trapping at the Portland International Airport supports the efficacy of trapping and spraying to prevent establishment. More generally, our analysis shows how stable isotopes can serve as sentinels of biological invasions, verifying the efficacy of control measures, or, alternatively, indicating when those measures show signs of failure. PMID:26959686

First photon detection in time-resolved transillumination imaging: a theoretical evaluation.

PubMed

Behin-Ain, S; van Doorn, T; Patterson, J R

2004-09-07

First photon detection, as a special case of time-resolved transillumination imaging, is studied through the derivation of the temporal probability density function (pdf) for the first arriving photon. The pdf for different laser intensities, media and second and later arriving photons were generated. The arrival time of the first detected photon reduced as the laser power increased and also when the scattering and absorption coefficients decreased. The pdf for an imbedded totally absorbing 3 mm inhomogeneity may be distinguished from the pdf of a homogeneous turbid medium similar to that of human breast in dimensions and optical properties.

Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinya; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.; Carlson, Thomas J.

2016-04-01

Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on measurements obtained from sensors (i.e., receivers) is an important research area that is attracting much interest. In this paper, we review several representative localization algorithms that use time of arrivals (TOAs) and time difference of arrivals (TDOAs) to achieve high signal source position estimation accuracy when a transmitter is in the line-of-sight of a receiver. Circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) position estimation approaches both use nonlinear equations that relate the known locations of receivers and unknown locations of transmitters. Estimation of the location of transmitters using the standard nonlinear equations may not be very accurate because of receiver location errors, receiver measurement errors, and computational efficiency challenges that result in high computational burdens. Least squares and maximum likelihood based algorithms have become the most popular computational approaches to transmitter location estimation. In this paper, we summarize the computational characteristics and position estimation accuracies of various positioning algorithms. By improving methods for estimating the time-of-arrival of transmissions at receivers and transmitter location estimation algorithms, transmitter location estimation may be applied across a range of applications and technologies such as radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.

Locating Microseism Sources Using Spurious Arrivals in Intercontinental Noise Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retailleau, Lise; Boué, Pierre; Stehly, Laurent; Campillo, Michel

2017-10-01

The accuracy of Green's functions retrieved from seismic noise correlations in the microseism frequency band is limited by the uneven distribution of microseism sources at the surface of the Earth. As a result, correlation functions are often biased as compared to the expected Green's functions, and they can include spurious arrivals. These spurious arrivals are seismic arrivals that are visible on the correlation and do not belong to the theoretical impulse response. In this article, we propose to use Rayleigh wave spurious arrivals detected on correlation functions computed between European and United States seismic stations to locate microseism sources in the Atlantic Ocean. We perform a slant stack on a time distance gather of correlations obtained from an array of stations that comprises a regional deployment and a distant station. The arrival times and the apparent slowness of the spurious arrivals lead to the location of their source, which is obtained through a grid search procedure. We discuss improvements in the location through this methodology as compared to classical back projection of microseism energy. This method is interesting because it only requires an array and a distant station on each side of an ocean, conditions that can be met relatively easily.

Only Above Barrier Energy Components Contribute to Barrier Traversal Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galapon, Eric A.

2012-04-01

A time of arrival operator across a square potential barrier is constructed. The expectation value of the barrier time of arrival operator for a sufficiently localized incident wave packet is compared with the expectation value of the free particle time of arrival operator for the same wave packet. The comparison yields an expression for the expected traversal time across the barrier. It is shown that only the above barrier components of the momentum distribution of the incident wave packet contribute to the barrier traversal time, implying that below the barrier components are transmitted without delay. This is consistent with the recent experiment in attosecond ionization in helium indicating that there is no real tunneling delay time [P. Eckle , Science 322, 1525 (2008)SCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.1163439].

Aging persons' estimates of vehicular motion.

PubMed

Schiff, W; Oldak, R; Shah, V

1992-12-01

Estimated arrival times of moving autos were examined in relation to viewer age, gender, motion trajectory, and velocity. Direct push-button judgments were compared with verbal estimates derived from velocity and distance, which were based on assumptions that perceivers compute arrival time from perceived distance and velocity. Experiment 1 showed that direct estimates of younger Ss were most accurate. Older women made the shortest (highly cautious) estimates of when cars would arrive. Verbal estimates were much lower than direct estimates, with little correlation between them. Experiment 2 extended target distances and velocities of targets, with the results replicating the main findings of Experiment 1. Judgment accuracy increased with target velocity, and verbal estimates were again poorer estimates of arrival time than direct ones, with different patterns of findings. Using verbal estimates to approximate judgments in traffic situations appears questionable.

Timelines in the management of adrenal crisis - targets, limits and reality.

PubMed

Hahner, Stefanie; Hemmelmann, Nina; Quinkler, Marcus; Beuschlein, Felix; Spinnler, Christina; Allolio, Bruno

2015-04-01

To evaluate current management timelines in adrenal crisis (AC) and to establish time targets and time limits for emergency treatment. Patients from a prospective study who had reported an AC (n = 46) were contacted and asked about management of their AC. A survey among 24 European endocrinologists collected expert recommendations concerning time targets and time limits for contact-arrival time of emergency health professionals and presentation of emergency card-glucocorticoid (GC) injection time. Median time targets and time limits regarded by experts as adequate for contact-arrival time were 45 and 90 min, respectively, and for card-injection time 15 and 30 min, respectively. Thirty-seven of 46 patients could be interviewed. All patients were equipped with an emergency card but only 23 (62%) with an emergency kit. Seven patients (19%) were trained in GC self-injection. The median time interval between contacting a health professional and arrival was 20 min (range 2-2880 min); ≤45 min: n = 32 (86%), <90 min: n = 34 (92%). The median time interval between arrival and administration of GC was 30 min (range 2-2400 min); ≤15 min: n = 17 (46%), ≤30 min: n = 20 (54%). While the time between contacting health professionals and their arrival was within the limits set by experts, initiation of GC administration was delayed in 46% of patients. Thus, improved management of AC needs to focus on shortening the presentation of card-injection time. Given the current reality in the management of AC, promotion of self-injection of GC (s.c. or i.m.) is warranted. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ensemble Modeling of the July 23, 2012 CME Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, M. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Millward, G.; Arge, C. N.; Henney, C. J.

2013-12-01

On July 23, 2012 a large and very fast coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed by STEREO A. This CME was unusual in that the estimates of the speed of the CME ranged from 2125 km/s to 2780 km/s based on dividing the distance of STEREO A from the Sun by the transit time of the CME. Modeling of this CME event with the WSA-Enlil model has also suggested that a very fast speed is required in order to obtain the correct arrival time at 1 AU. We present a systematic study of parameter space for the July 23, 2012 CME event through an ensemble study using the WSA-Enlil model to predict the arrival time of the CME at STEREO A. We investigate how variations in the initial speed, angular width, and direction affect the predicted arrival time. We also explore how variations in the background solar wind influence CME arrival time by using varying ADAPT maps within our ensemble study. Factors involved in the fast transit time of this large CME are discussed and the optimal CME parameters are presented.

Nowcasting the spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas.

PubMed

Johansson, Michael A; Powers, Ann M; Pesik, Nicki; Cohen, Nicole J; Staples, J Erin

2014-01-01

In December 2013, the first locally-acquired chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections in the Americas were reported in the Caribbean. As of May 16, 55,992 cases had been reported and the outbreak was still spreading. Identification of newly affected locations is paramount to intervention activities, but challenging due to limitations of current data on the outbreak and on CHIKV transmission. We developed models to make probabilistic predictions of spread based on current data considering these limitations. Branching process models capturing travel patterns, local infection prevalence, climate dependent transmission factors, and associated uncertainty estimates were developed to predict probable locations for the arrival of CHIKV-infected travelers and for the initiation of local transmission. Many international cities and areas close to where transmission has already occurred were likely to have received infected travelers. Of the ten locations predicted to be the most likely locations for introduced CHIKV transmission in the first four months of the outbreak, eight had reported local cases by the end of April. Eight additional locations were likely to have had introduction leading to local transmission in April, but with substantial uncertainty. Branching process models can characterize the risk of CHIKV introduction and spread during the ongoing outbreak. Local transmission of CHIKV is currently likely in several Caribbean locations and possible, though uncertain, for other locations in the continental United States, Central America, and South America. This modeling framework may also be useful for other outbreaks where the risk of pathogen spread over heterogeneous transportation networks must be rapidly assessed on the basis of limited information.

Human-mediated and natural dispersal of an invasive fish in the eastern Great Lakes.

PubMed

Johansson, Mattias L; Dufour, Bradley A; Wellband, Kyle W; Corkum, Lynda D; MacIsaac, Hugh J; Heath, Daniel D

2018-06-01

The globally invasive Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) was introduced to the Great Lakes around 1990, spreading widely and becoming the dominant benthic fish in many areas. The speed and scope of this invasion is remarkable and calls into question conventional secondary spread models and scenarios. We utilized nine microsatellites to identify large-scale genetic structure in Round Goby populations in the eastern Great Lakes, and assessed the role of colonization vs. secondary transport and dispersal in developing this structure. We identified three clusters, corresponding with Lake Huron, eastern Lake Erie, and western Lake Erie plus eastern Lake Ontario, along with three highly divergent populations. Bottleneck analysis identified founder effects in two divergent populations. Regression analyses of isolation by distance and allelic richness vs. distance from the initial invasion site were consistent with limited migration. However, some populations in eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario showed anomalously low genetic distance from the original site of colonization, consistent with secondary transport of large numbers of individuals via ballast water. We conclude that genetic structure of Round Goby in the Great Lakes principally resulted from long-distance secondary transport via ballast water with additional movement of individual via bait buckets and natural dispersal. The success of Round Gobies represents an interesting model for colonization characterization; however, those same attributes present significant challenges for conservation and fisheries management. Current management likely prevents many new species from arriving in the Great Lakes, but fails to address the transport of species within the lakes after they arrive; this is an issue of clear and pressing importance.

The Field-Laboratory for CO2 Storage 'CO2SINK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Würdemann, Hilke; Möller, Fabian; Kühn, Michael; Borm, Günter; Schilling, Frank R.

2010-05-01

The first European onshore geological CO2 storage project in a saline aquifer CO2SINK is designed as a field size experiment to better understand in situ storage processes and to test various monitoring techniques. This EU project is run by 18 partners from universities, research institutes and industry out of 9 European countries (www.co2sink.org). The CO2 is injected into Upper Triassic sandstones (Stuttgart Formation) of a double-anticline at a depth of 650 m. The Stuttgart Formation represents a flu vial environment comprised of sandstone channels and silty to muddy deposits. The anticline forms a classical multibarrier system: The first caprock is a playa type mudstone of the Weser and Arnstadt formations directly overlying the Stuttgart formation. Laboratory tests revealed permeabilities in a µDarcy-range. The second main caprock is a tertiary clay, the so-called Rupelton. To determine the maximum injection pressure modified leak-off tests (without fracturing the caprock) were performed resulting in values around 120 bar. Due to safety standards the pressure threshold is set to 82 bar until more experience on the reservoir behaviour is available. The sealing property of the secondary cap rock is well known from decades of natural gas storage operations at the testing site and was the basis for the permission to operate the CO2 storage by the mining authority. Undisturbed, initial reservoir conditions are 35 °C and 62 bar. The initial reservoir fluid is highly saline with about 235 g/l total dissolved solids primarily composed of sodium chloride with notable amounts of calcium chloride. The initial pH value is 6.6. Hydraulic tests as well as laboratory tests revealed a permeability between 50 and 100 mDarcy for the sand channels of the storage formation. Within twenty months of storage operation, about 30,000 t of CO2 have been injected. Spreading of the CO2 plume is monitored by a broad range of geophysical techniques. The injection well and the two observation wells are equipped with 'smart casing technology' containing a Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) and electrodes for Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) behind casing, facing the rocks. The geophysical monitoring includes crosshole seismic experiments, Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) and Moving Source Profiling (MSP), star seismic experiments and 4-D seismics. Gas membrane sensors (GMS) monitored the arrival of CO2 at the observation wells: CO2 arrived after injection of about 500 t of CO2.at the first well. Arrival in the second well was 9 months after start of injection, having injected an amount of about 11,000 t. Prior to CO2, the arrival of the gas tracers nitrogen and krypton was observed. Pressure and temperature logs showed a supercritical state of the CO2 in all three wells at depth of the storage formation after arrival of CO2. Downhole samples of the brine showed changes in the fluid composition and the activity of biocenosis due CO2 exposure (Morozova et al., EGU General Assembly 2010). Numerical models are benchmarked via the monitoring results indicating a sufficient match for the arrival at the first observation well. First results of ERT measurements indicate an anisotopic flow of CO2 coinciding with the 'on-time' arrival of CO2 at the first well and the late arrival at the second well. Time lapse crosshole seismics showed no considerable change in seismic velocity between the two observation wells within the first two repeats after injection of 660 t and 1,700 t of CO2, respectively. However, after injection of 18,000 t CO2 all time-lapse surveys showed a clearly observable signature of the CO2 propagating in the Stuttgart formation. In May 2010 results from twenty months of operation and monitoring the storage operation will be presented. Morozova, D., Zettlitzer, M.., Vieth A., Würdemann, H., (2010). Microbial community response to the CO2 injection and storage in the saline aquifer, Ketzin, Germany. European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly. Vienna.

Gender, Social Networks, and Stroke Preparedness in the Stroke Warning Information and Faster Treatment Study.

PubMed

Madsen, Tracy E; Roberts, Eric T; Kuczynski, Heather; Goldmann, Emily; Parikh, Nina S; Boden-Albala, Bernadette

2017-12-01

The study aimed to investigate the effect of gender on the association between social networks and stroke preparedness as measured by emergency department (ED) arrival within 3 hours of symptom onset. As part of the Stroke Warning Information and Faster Treatment study, baseline data on demographics, social networks, and time to ED arrival were collected from 1193 prospectively enrolled stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients at Columbia University Medical Center. Logistic regression was conducted with arrival to the ED ≤3 hours as the outcome, social network characteristics as explanatory variables, and gender as a potential effect modifier. Men who lived alone or were divorced were significantly less likely to arrive ≤3 hours than men who lived with a spouse (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: .31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: .15-0.64) or were married (aOR: .45, 95% CI: .23-0.86). Among women, those who lived alone or were divorced had similar odds of arriving ≤3 hours compared with those who lived with a spouse (aOR: 1.25, 95% CI: .63-2.49) or were married (aOR: .73, 95% CI: .4-1.35). In patients with stroke/TIA, living with someone or being married improved time to arrival in men only. Behavioral interventions to improve stroke preparedness should incorporate gender differences in how social networks affect arrival times. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scientific publications about DNA structure-function and PCR technique in Costa Rica: a historic view (1953-2003).

PubMed

Albertazzi, Federico J

2004-09-01

The spreading of knowledge depends on the access to the information and its immediate use. Models are useful to explain specific phenomena. The scientific community accepts some models in Biology after a period of time, once it has evidence to support it. The model of the structure and function of the DNA proposed by Watson & Crick (1953) was not the exception, since a few years later the DNA model was finally accepted. In Costa Rica, DNA function was first mentioned in 1970, in the magazine Biologia Tropical (Tropical Biology Magazine), more than 15 years after its first publication in a scientific journal. An opposite situation occurs with technical innovations. If the efficiency of a new scientific technique is proved in a compelling way, then the acceptance by the community comes swiftly. This was the case of the polymerase chain reaction, or PCR. The first PCR machine in Costa Rica arrived in 1991, only three years after its publication.

Early Upper Paleolithic colonization across Europe: Time and mode of the Gravettian diffusion

PubMed Central

Cascalheira, João; Gonçalves, Célia

2017-01-01

This study presents new models on the origin, speed and mode of the wave-of-advance leading to the definitive occupation of Europe’s outskirts by Anatomically Modern Humans, during the Gravettian, between c. 37 and 30 ka ago. These models provide the estimation for possible demic dispersal routes for AMH at a stable spread rate of c. 0.7 km/year, with the likely origin in Central Europe at the site of Geissenklosterle in Germany and reaching all areas of the European landscape. The results imply that: 1. The arrival of the Gravettian populations into the far eastern European plains and to southern Iberia found regions with very low human occupation or even devoid of hominins; 2. Human demography was likely lower than previous estimates for the Upper Paleolithic; 3. The likely early AMH paths across Europe followed the European central plains and the Mediterranean coast to reach to the ends of the Italian and Iberian peninsulas. PMID:28542642

Transport of solar electrons in the turbulent interplanetary magnetic field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ablaßmayer, J.; Tautz, R. C., E-mail: robert.c.tautz@gmail.com; Dresing, N., E-mail: dresing@physik.uni-kiel.de

2016-01-15

The turbulent transport of solar energetic electrons in the interplanetary magnetic field is investigated by means of a test-particle Monte-Carlo simulation. The magnetic fields are modeled as a combination of the Parker field and a turbulent component. In combination with the direct calculation of diffusion coefficients via the mean-square displacements, this approach allows one to analyze the effect of the initial ballistic transport phase. In that sense, the model complements the main other approach in which a transport equation is solved. The major advancement is that, by recording the flux of particles arriving at virtual detectors, intensity and anisotropy-time profilesmore » can be obtained. Observational indications for a longitudinal asymmetry can thus be explained by tracing the diffusive spread of the particle distribution. The approach may be of future help for the systematic interpretation of observations for instance by the solar terrestrial relations observatory (STEREO) and advanced composition explorer (ACE) spacecrafts.« less

Passive imaging of hydrofractures in the South Belridge diatomite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ilderton, D.C.; Patzek, T.W.; Rector, J.W.

1996-03-01

The authors present the results of a seismic analysis of two hydrofractures spanning the entire diatomite column (1,110--1,910 ft or 338--582 m) in Shell`s Phase 2 steam drive pilot in South Belridge, California. These hydrofractures were induced at two depths (1,110--1,460 and 1,560--1,910 ft) and imaged passively using the seismic energy released during fracturing. The arrivals of shear waves from the cracking rock (microseismic events) were recorded at a 1 ms sampling rate by 56 geophones in three remote observation wells, resulting in 10 GB of raw data. These arrival times were then inverted for the event locations, from whichmore » the hydrofracture geometry was inferred. A five-dimensional conjugate-gradient algorithm with a depth-dependent, but otherwise constant shear wave velocity model (CVM) was developed for the inversions. To validate CVM, they created a layered shear wave velocity model of the formation and used it to calculate synthetic arrival times from known locations chosen at various depths along the estimated fracture plane. These arrival times were then inverted with CVM and the calculated locations compared with the known ones, quantifying the systematic error associated with the assumption of constant shear wave velocity. They also performed Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses on the synthetic arrival times to account for all other random errors that exist in field data. After determining the limitations of the inversion algorithm, they hand-picked the shear wave arrival times for both hydrofractures and inverted them with CVM.« less

Improved Location of Microseismic Events in Borehole Monitoring by Inclusion of Particle Motion Analysis: a Case Study at a CBM Field in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdhora Ry, Rexha; Septyana, T.; Widiyantoro, S.; Nugraha, A. D.; Ardjuna, A.

2017-04-01

Microseismic monitoring and constraining its hypocenters in and around hydrocarbon reservoirs provides insight into induced deformation related to hydraulic fracturing. In this study, we used data from a single vertical array of sensors in a borehole, providing measures of arrival times and polarizations. Microseismic events are located using 1-D velocity models and arrival times of P- and S-waves. However, in the case of all the sensors being deployed in a near-vertical borehole, there is a high ambiguity in the source location. Herein, we applied a procedure using azimuth of P-wave particle motion to constrain and improve the source location. We used a dataset acquired during 1-day of fracture stimulation at a CBM field in Indonesia. We applied five steps of location procedure to investigate microseismic events induced by these hydraulic fracturing activities. First, arrival times for 1584 candidate events were manually picked. Then we refined the arrival times using energy ratio method to obtain high consistency picking. Using these arrival times, we estimated back-azimuth using P-wave polarization analysis. We also added the combination of polarities analysis to remove 180° ambiguity. In the end, we determined hypocenter locations using grid-search method that guided in the back-azimuth trace area to minimize the misfit function of arrival times. We have successfully removed the ambiguity and produced a good solution for hypocenter locations as indicated statistically by small RMS. Most of the events clusters highlight coherent structures around the treatment well site and revealed faults. The same procedure can be applied to various other cases such as microseismic monitoring in the field of geothermal and shale gas/oil exploration, also CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) development.

Wavelet-based automatic determination of the P- and S-wave arrivals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogiatzis, P.; Ishii, M.

2013-12-01

The detection of P- and S-wave arrivals is important for a variety of seismological applications including earthquake detection and characterization, and seismic tomography problems such as imaging of hydrocarbon reservoirs. For many years, dedicated human-analysts manually selected the arrival times of P and S waves. However, with the rapid expansion of seismic instrumentation, automatic techniques that can process a large number of seismic traces are becoming essential in tomographic applications, and for earthquake early-warning systems. In this work, we present a pair of algorithms for efficient picking of P and S onset times. The algorithms are based on the continuous wavelet transform of the seismic waveform that allows examination of a signal in both time and frequency domains. Unlike Fourier transform, the basis functions are localized in time and frequency, therefore, wavelet decomposition is suitable for analysis of non-stationary signals. For detecting the P-wave arrival, the wavelet coefficients are calculated using the vertical component of the seismogram, and the onset time of the wave is identified. In the case of the S-wave arrival, we take advantage of the polarization of the shear waves, and cross-examine the wavelet coefficients from the two horizontal components. In addition to the onset times, the automatic picking program provides estimates of uncertainty, which are important for subsequent applications. The algorithms are tested with synthetic data that are generated to include sudden changes in amplitude, frequency, and phase. The performance of the wavelet approach is further evaluated using real data by comparing the automatic picks with manual picks. Our results suggest that the proposed algorithms provide robust measurements that are comparable to manual picks for both P- and S-wave arrivals.

Comparing performance of multinomial logistic regression and discriminant analysis for monitoring access to care for acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Hossain, Monir; Wright, Steven; Petersen, Laura A

2002-04-01

One way to monitor patient access to emergent health care services is to use patient characteristics to predict arrival time at the hospital after onset of symptoms. This predicted arrival time can then be compared with actual arrival time to allow monitoring of access to services. Predicted arrival time could also be used to estimate potential effects of changes in health care service availability, such as closure of an emergency department or an acute care hospital. Our goal was to determine the best statistical method for prediction of arrival intervals for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) symptoms. We compared the performance of multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and discriminant analysis (DA) models. Models for MLR and DA were developed using a dataset of 3,566 male veterans hospitalized with AMI in 81 VA Medical Centers in 1994-1995 throughout the United States. The dataset was randomly divided into a training set (n = 1,846) and a test set (n = 1,720). Arrival times were grouped into three intervals on the basis of treatment considerations: <6 hours, 6-12 hours, and >12 hours. One model for MLR and two models for DA were developed using the training dataset. One DA model had equal prior probabilities, and one DA model had proportional prior probabilities. Predictive performance of the models was compared using the test (n = 1,720) dataset. Using the test dataset, the proportions of patients in the three arrival time groups were 60.9% for <6 hours, 10.3% for 6-12 hours, and 28.8% for >12 hours after symptom onset. Whereas the overall predictive performance by MLR and DA with proportional priors was higher, the DA models with equal priors performed much better in the smaller groups. Correct classifications were 62.6% by MLR, 62.4% by DA using proportional prior probabilities, and 48.1% using equal prior probabilities of the groups. The misclassifications by MLR for the three groups were 9.5%, 100.0%, 74.2% for each time interval, respectively. Misclassifications by DA models were 9.8%, 100.0%, and 74.4% for the model with proportional priors and 47.6%, 79.5%, and 51.0% for the model with equal priors. The choice of MLR or DA with proportional priors, or DA with equal priors for monitoring time intervals of predicted hospital arrival time for a population should depend on the consequences of misclassification errors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ross, Steve; Haji-Sheikh, Michael; Huntington, Andrew

The Voxtel VX-798 is a prototype X-ray pixel array detector (PAD) featuring a silicon sensor photodiode array of 48 x 48 pixels, each 130 mu m x 130 mu m x 520 mu m thick, coupled to a CMOS readout application specific integrated circuit (ASIC). The first synchrotron X-ray characterization of this detector is presented, and its ability to selectively count individual X-rays within two independent arrival time windows, a programmable energy range, and localized to a single pixel is demonstrated. During our first trial run at Argonne National Laboratory's Advance Photon Source, the detector achieved a 60 ns gatingmore » time and 700 eV full width at half-maximum energy resolution in agreement with design parameters. Each pixel of the PAD holds two independent digital counters, and the discriminator for X-ray energy features both an upper and lower threshold to window the energy of interest discarding unwanted background. This smart-pixel technology allows energy and time resolution to be set and optimized in software. It is found that the detector linearity follows an isolated dead-time model, implying that megahertz count rates should be possible in each pixel. Measurement of the line and point spread functions showed negligible spatial blurring. When combined with the timing structure of the synchrotron storage ring, it is demonstrated that the area detector can perform both picosecond time-resolved X-ray diffraction and fluorescence spectroscopy measurements.« less

Healthcare System Information at Language Schools for Newly Arrived Immigrants: A Pertinent Setting in Times of Austerity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tynell, Lena Lyngholt; Wimmelmann, Camilla Lawaetz; Jervelund, Signe Smith

2017-01-01

Objective: In most European countries, immigrants do not systematically learn about the host countries' healthcare system when arriving. This study investigated how newly arrived immigrants perceived the information they received about the Danish healthcare system. Methods: Immigrants attending a language school in Copenhagen in 2012 received…

Improved Results for Route Planning in Stochastic Transportation Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyan, Justin; Mitzenmacher, Michael

2000-01-01

In the bus network problem, the goal is to generate a plan for getting from point X to point Y within a city using buses in the smallest expected time. Because bus arrival times are not determined by a fixed schedule but instead may be random. the problem requires more than standard shortest path techniques. In recent work, Datar and Ranade provide algorithms in the case where bus arrivals are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. We offer solutions to two important generalizations of the problem, answering open questions posed by Datar and Ranade. First, we provide a polynomial time algorithm for a much wider class of arrival distributions, namely those with increasing failure rate. This class includes not only exponential distributions but also uniform, normal, and gamma distributions. Second, in the case where bus arrival times are independent and geometric discrete random variable,. we provide an algorithm for transportation networks of buses and trains, where trains run according to a fixed schedule.

Joint inversion of gravity and arrival time data from Parkfield: New constraints on structure and hypocenter locations near the SAFOD drill site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roecker, S.; Thurber, C.; McPhee, D.

2004-01-01

Taking advantage of large datasets of both gravity and elastic wave arrival time observations available for the Parkfield, California region, we generated an image consistent with both types of data. Among a variety of strategies, the best result was obtained from a simultaneous inversion with a stability requirement that encouraged the perturbed model to remain close to a starting model consisting of a best fit to the arrival time data. The preferred model looks essentially the same as the best-fit arrival time model in areas where ray coverage is dense, with differences being greatest at shallow depths and near the edges of the model where ray paths are few. Earthquake locations change by no more than about 100 m, the general effect being migration of the seismic zone to the northeast, closer to the surface trace of the San Andreas Fault. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Process improvement to enhance existing stroke team activity toward more timely thrombolytic treatment.

PubMed

Cho, Han-Jin; Lee, Kyung Yul; Nam, Hyo Suk; Kim, Young Dae; Song, Tae-Jin; Jung, Yo Han; Choi, Hye-Yeon; Heo, Ji Hoe

2014-10-01

Process improvement (PI) is an approach for enhancing the existing quality improvement process by making changes while keeping the existing process. We have shown that implementation of a stroke code program using a computerized physician order entry system is effective in reducing the in-hospital time delay to thrombolysis in acute stroke patients. We investigated whether implementation of this PI could further reduce the time delays by continuous improvement of the existing process. After determining a key indicator [time interval from emergency department (ED) arrival to intravenous (IV) thrombolysis] and conducting data analysis, the target time from ED arrival to IV thrombolysis in acute stroke patients was set at 40 min. The key indicator was monitored continuously at a weekly stroke conference. The possible reasons for the delay were determined in cases for which IV thrombolysis was not administered within the target time and, where possible, the problems were corrected. The time intervals from ED arrival to the various evaluation steps and treatment before and after implementation of the PI were compared. The median time interval from ED arrival to IV thrombolysis in acute stroke patients was significantly reduced after implementation of the PI (from 63.5 to 45 min, p=0.001). The variation in the time interval was also reduced. A reduction in the evaluation time intervals was achieved after the PI [from 23 to 17 min for computed tomography scanning (p=0.003) and from 35 to 29 min for complete blood counts (p=0.006)]. PI is effective for continuous improvement of the existing process by reducing the time delays between ED arrival and IV thrombolysis in acute stroke patients.

Real-time Upstream Monitoring System: Using ACE Data to Predict the Arrival of Interplanetary Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donegan, M. M.; Wagstaff, K. L.; Ho, G. C.; Vandegriff, J.

2003-12-01

We have developed an algorithm to predict Earth arrival times for interplanetary (IP) shock events originating at the Sun. Our predictions are generated from real-time data collected by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. The high intensities of energetic ions that occur prior to and during an IP shock pose a radiation hazard to astronauts as well as to electronics in Earth orbit. The potential to predict such events is based on characteristic signatures in the Energetic Storm Particle (ESP) event ion intensities which are often associated with IP shocks. We have previously reported on the development and implementation of an algorithm to forecast the arrival of ESP events. Historical ion data from ACE/EPAM was used to train an artificial neural network which uses the signature of an approaching event to predict the time remaining until the shock arrives. Tests on the trained network have been encouraging, with an average error of 9.4 hours for predictions made 24 hours in advance, and an reduced average error of 4.9 hours when the shock is 12 hours away. The prediction engine has been integrated into a web-based system that uses real-time ACE/EPAM data provided by the NOAA Space Environment Center (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/ index.html.) This system continually processes the latest ACE data, reports whether or not there is an impending shock, and predicts the time remaining until the shock arrival. Our predictions are updated every five minutes and provide significant lead-time, thereby supplying critical information that can be used by mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists. We have continued to refine the prediction capabilities of this system; in addition to forecasting arrival times for shocks, we now provide confidence estimates for those predictions.

A scheme for a shot-to-shot, femtosecond-resolved pulse length and arrival time measurement of free electron laser x-ray pulses that overcomes the time jitter problem between the FEL and the laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juranić, P. N.; Stepanov, A.; Peier, P.; Hauri, C. P.; Ischebeck, R.; Schlott, V.; Radović, M.; Erny, C.; Ardana-Lamas, F.; Monoszlai, B.; Gorgisyan, I.; Patthey, L.; Abela, R.

2014-03-01

The recent entry of X-ray free electron lasers (FELs) to all fields of physics has created an enormous need, both from scientists and operators, for better characterization of the beam created by these facilities. Of particular interest is the measurement of the arrival time of the FEL pulse relative to a laser pump, for pump-probe experiments, and the measurement of the FEL pulse length. This article describes a scheme that corrects one of the major sources of uncertainty in these types of measurements, namely the jitter in the arrival time of the FEL relative to an experimental laser beam. The setup presented here uses a combination of THz streak cameras and a spectral encoding setup to reduce the effect of an FEL's jitter, leaving the pulse length as the only variable that can affect the accuracy of the pulse length and arrival time measurement. A discussion of underlying principles is also provided.

Arrival time distributions of electrons in air showers with primary energies above 10 (18)eV observed at 900m above sea level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kakimoto, F.; Tsuchimoto, I.; Enoki, T.; Suga, K.; Nishi, K.

1985-01-01

Detection of air showers with primary energies above 10 to the 19th power eV with sufficient statistics is extremely important in an astrophysical aspect related to the Greisen cut off and the origin of such high energy cosmic rays. Recently, a method is proposed to observe such giant air showers by measuring the arrival time distributions of air-shower particles at large core distances with a mini array. Experiments to measure the arrival time distributions of muons were started in 1981 and those of electrons in early 1983 in the Akeno air-shower array (930 gcm cm squared atmospheric depth, 900m above sea level). During the time of observation, the detection area of the Akeno array was expanded from 1 sq km to sq km in 1982 and to 20 sq km in 1984. Now the arrival time distribution of electrons and muons can be measured for showers with primary energies above 1019eV at large core distances.

Blind deconvolution of astronomical images with band limitation determined by optical system parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Fan, M.; Shen, M. Z.

2007-07-01

Atmospheric turbulence greatly limits the spatial resolution of astronomical images acquired by the large ground-based telescope. The record image obtained from telescope was thought as a convolution result of the object function and the point spread function. The statistic relationship of the images measured data, the estimated object and point spread function was in accord with the Bayes conditional probability distribution, and the maximum-likelihood formulation was found. A blind deconvolution approach based on the maximum-likelihood estimation technique with real optical band limitation constraint is presented for removing the effect of atmospheric turbulence on this class images through the minimization of the convolution error function by use of the conjugation gradient optimization algorithm. As a result, the object function and the point spread function could be estimated from a few record images at the same time by the blind deconvolution algorithm. According to the principle of Fourier optics, the relationship between the telescope optical system parameters and the image band constraint in the frequency domain was formulated during the image processing transformation between the spatial domain and the frequency domain. The convergence of the algorithm was increased by use of having the estimated function variable (also is the object function and the point spread function) nonnegative and the point-spread function band limited. Avoiding Fourier transform frequency components beyond the cut off frequency lost during the image processing transformation when the size of the sampled image data, image spatial domain and frequency domain were the same respectively, the detector element (e.g. a pixels in the CCD) should be less than the quarter of the diffraction speckle diameter of the telescope for acquiring the images on the focal plane. The proposed method can easily be applied to the case of wide field-view turbulent-degraded images restoration because of no using the object support constraint in the algorithm. The performance validity of the method is examined by the computer simulation and the restoration of the real Alpha Psc astronomical image data. The results suggest that the blind deconvolution with the real optical band constraint can remove the effect of the atmospheric turbulence on the observed images and the spatial resolution of the object image can arrive at or exceed the diffraction-limited level.

Optimal Time Advance In Terminal Area Arrivals: Throughput vs. Fuel Savings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadovsky, Alexander V .; Swenson, Harry N.; Haskell, William B.; Rakas, Jasenka

2011-01-01

The current operational practice in scheduling air traffic arriving at an airport is to adjust flight schedules by delay, i.e. a postponement of an aircrafts arrival at a scheduled location, to manage safely the FAA-mandated separation constraints between aircraft. To meet the observed and forecast growth in traffic demand, however, the practice of time advance (speeding up an aircraft toward a scheduled location) is envisioned for future operations as a practice additional to delay. Time advance has two potential advantages. The first is the capability to minimize, or at least reduce, the excess separation (the distances between pairs of aircraft immediately in-trail) and thereby to increase the throughput of the arriving traffic. The second is to reduce the total traffic delay when the traffic sample is below saturation density. A cost associated with time advance is the fuel expenditure required by an aircraft to speed up. We present an optimal control model of air traffic arriving in a terminal area and solve it using the Pontryagin Maximum Principle. The admissible controls allow time advance, as well as delay, some of the way. The cost function reflects the trade-off between minimizing two competing objectives: excess separation (negatively correlated with throughput) and fuel burn. A number of instances are solved using three different methods, to demonstrate consistency of solutions.

A Mixed Integer Linear Program for Solving a Multiple Route Taxi Scheduling Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montoya, Justin Vincent; Wood, Zachary Paul; Rathinam, Sivakumar; Malik, Waqar Ahmad

2010-01-01

Aircraft movements on taxiways at busy airports often create bottlenecks. This paper introduces a mixed integer linear program to solve a Multiple Route Aircraft Taxi Scheduling Problem. The outputs of the model are in the form of optimal taxi schedules, which include routing decisions for taxiing aircraft. The model extends an existing single route formulation to include routing decisions. An efficient comparison framework compares the multi-route formulation and the single route formulation. The multi-route model is exercised for east side airport surface traffic at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport to determine if any arrival taxi time savings can be achieved by allowing arrivals to have two taxi routes: a route that crosses an active departure runway and a perimeter route that avoids the crossing. Results indicate that the multi-route formulation yields reduced arrival taxi times over the single route formulation only when a perimeter taxiway is used. In conditions where the departure aircraft are given an optimal and fixed takeoff sequence, accumulative arrival taxi time savings in the multi-route formulation can be as high as 3.6 hours more than the single route formulation. If the departure sequence is not optimal, the multi-route formulation results in less taxi time savings made over the single route formulation, but the average arrival taxi time is significantly decreased.

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erkmen, Baris I.; Moision, Bruce E.

2010-01-01

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

Analysis of delay reducing and fuel saving sequencing and spacing algorithms for arrival traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neuman, Frank; Erzberger, Heinz

1991-01-01

The air traffic control subsystem that performs sequencing and spacing is discussed. The function of the sequencing and spacing algorithms is to automatically plan the most efficient landing order and to assign optimally spaced landing times to all arrivals. Several algorithms are described and their statistical performance is examined. Sequencing brings order to an arrival sequence for aircraft. First-come-first-served sequencing (FCFS) establishes a fair order, based on estimated times of arrival, and determines proper separations. Because of the randomness of the arriving traffic, gaps will remain in the sequence of aircraft. Delays are reduced by time-advancing the leading aircraft of each group while still preserving the FCFS order. Tightly spaced groups of aircraft remain with a mix of heavy and large aircraft. Spacing requirements differ for different types of aircraft trailing each other. Traffic is reordered slightly to take advantage of this spacing criterion, thus shortening the groups and reducing average delays. For heavy traffic, delays for different traffic samples vary widely, even when the same set of statistical parameters is used to produce each sample. This report supersedes NASA TM-102795 on the same subject. It includes a new method of time-advance as well as an efficient method of sequencing and spacing for two dependent runways.

SPX-8 Dragon Spacecraft Approach

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-04-10

ISS047e052707 (04/10/2016) --- The SpaceX Dragon cargo spaceship begins the final approach to the International Space Station. The spacecraft is delivering about 7,000 pounds of science and research investigations, including the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module, known as BEAM. Dragon’s arrival marked the first time two commercial cargo vehicles have been docked simultaneously at the space station. Orbital ATK’s Cygnus spacecraft arrived to the station just over two weeks ago. With the arrival of Dragon, the space station ties the record for most vehicles on station at one time – six.

Monitoring molecular interactions using photon arrival-time interval distribution analysis

DOEpatents

Laurence, Ted A [Livermore, CA; Weiss, Shimon [Los Angels, CA

2009-10-06

A method for analyzing/monitoring the properties of species that are labeled with fluorophores. A detector is used to detect photons emitted from species that are labeled with one or more fluorophores and located in a confocal detection volume. The arrival time of each of the photons is determined. The interval of time between various photon pairs is then determined to provide photon pair intervals. The number of photons that have arrival times within the photon pair intervals is also determined. The photon pair intervals are then used in combination with the corresponding counts of intervening photons to analyze properties and interactions of the molecules including brightness, concentration, coincidence and transit time. The method can be used for analyzing single photon streams and multiple photon streams.

[Friendly services between scholars : A mesolabe for the edition of Vitruvius' De Architectura (1567)].

PubMed

Gessner, Samuel

2010-01-01

This article exposes certain functions of scientific correspondence during the second half of the 16(th) century. A professor of mathematics in Rome, Antonio Maria Pazzi, sends a mesolabe together with a letter to Barbaro, the humanist scholar of Venice. The latter would include parts of it in the Latin version of his commentary to Vitruvius. The analysis of the context of this publication shows that both arrive at aligning their personal intentions with the ideal of the "common good" by contributing to the spread of mathematical knowledge and practices.

The Evolution of Rotation and Activity in Young Open Clusters: the Zero-Age Main Sequence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patten, Brian Michael

1995-01-01

I have undertaken a program of ground- and space -based observations to measure photometric rotation periods and X-ray luminosities for late-type stars in the young open clusters IC 2391 and IC 2602. With cluster ages of ~30 Myr, IC 2391 and IC 2602 are ideal sites in which to observe conditions at the ZAMS since the solar-type stars in these clusters have not been on the main sequence long enough to undergo significant magnetic braking. The ROSAT survey of IC 2391 revealed 80 X-ray sources, 44 of which were found to be associated with stars which are now classified as new cluster members. Among the solar-type stars in both IC 2391 and IC 2602, I find a factor of ~25 spread in the distribution of rotation periods, which range from 0.21 to 4.86 day. I also find a factor of ~10-20 spread in the range of LX about a median LX value of ~10^{30 } erg s^{-1} for both clusters. These results show conclusively that stars arrive on the ZAMS with a wide range of rotation rates and coronal activity levels. When compared to data from older clusters, such as the Pleiades and the Hyades, there is an overall decline observed in both the rotation rates and median X-ray luminosity of cluster members with increasing age, however, while the spread in the range of rotation rates decreases to a small value, the spread in the range of LX values as a fraction of the median is observed to increase with age. This behavior is best explained through a dependence of LX on P rot which is weak in the young clusters and strong in the older clusters. The Rossby diagram shows there is a tight correlation between L X/Lbol and the Rossby number, Prot divided by the convective turnover time. Young, rapidly rotating, main sequence stars lie along a plateau of magnetic saturation, where LX has a weak dependence on rotation period, while older, more slowly rotating stars lie in a region on the Rossby diagram where LX has a strong dependence on rotation period.

Urban sprawl and delayed ambulance arrival in the U.S.

PubMed

Trowbridge, Matthew J; Gurka, Matthew J; O'Connor, Robert E

2009-11-01

Minimizing emergency medical service (EMS) response time is a central objective of prehospital care, yet the potential influence of built environment features such as urban sprawl on EMS system performance is often not considered. This study measures the association between urban sprawl and EMS response time to test the hypothesis that features of sprawling development increase the probability of delayed ambulance arrival. In 2008, EMS response times for 43,424 motor-vehicle crashes were obtained from the Fatal Analysis Reporting System, a national census of crashes involving > or =1 fatality. Sprawl at each crash location was measured using a continuous county-level index previously developed by Ewing et al. The association between sprawl and the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival (> or =8 minutes) was then measured using generalized linear mixed modeling to account for correlation among crashes from the same county. Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival (p=0.03). This probability increases quadratically as the severity of sprawl increases while controlling for nighttime crash occurrence, road conditions, and presence of construction. For example, in sprawling counties (e.g., Fayette County GA), the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival for daytime crashes in dry conditions without construction was 69% (95% CI=66%, 72%) compared with 31% (95% CI=28%, 35%) in counties with prominent smart-growth characteristics (e.g., Delaware County PA). Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival following motor-vehicle crashes in the U.S. The results of this study suggest that promotion of community design and development that follows smart-growth principles and regulates urban sprawl may improve EMS performance and reliability.

Estimation of flow properties using surface deformation and head data: A trajectory-based approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D.W.

2004-07-12

A trajectory-based algorithm provides an efficient and robust means to infer flow properties from surface deformation and head data. The algorithm is based upon the concept of an ''arrival time'' of a drawdown front, which is defined as the time corresponding to the maximum slope of the drawdown curve. The technique involves three steps: the inference of head changes as a function of position and time, the use of the estimated head changes to define arrival times, and the inversion of the arrival times for flow properties. Trajectories, computed from the output of a numerical simulator, are used to relatemore » the drawdown arrival times to flow properties. The inversion algorithm is iterative, requiring one reservoir simulation for each iteration. The method is applied to data from a set of 14 tiltmeters, located at the Raymond Quarry field site in California. Using the technique, I am able to image a high-conductivity channel which extends to the south of the pumping well. The presence of th is permeable pathway is supported by an analysis of earlier cross-well transient pressure test data.« less

DTWT (Dispersive Tsunami Wave Tool): a new tool for computing the complete dispersion of tsunami travel time.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, Dominique

2017-04-01

We present a tool for computing the complete arrival times of the dispersed wave-train of a tsunami. The calculus is made using the exact formulation of the tsunami dispersion (and without approximations), at any desired periods between one hour or more (concerning the gravity waves propagation) until 10s (the highly dispersed mode). The computation of the travel times is based on the a summation of the necessary time for a tsunami to cross all the elementary blocs of a grid of bathymetry following a path between the source and receiver at a given period. In addition the source dimensions and the focal mechanism are taken into account to adjust the minimum travel time to the different possible points of emission of the source. A possible application of this tool is to forecast the arrival time of late arrivals of tsunami waves that could produce the resonnance of some bays and sites at higher frequencies than the gravity mode. The theoretical arrival times are compared to the observed ones and to the results obtained by TTT (P. Wessel, 2009) and the ones obtained by numerical simulations. References: Wessel, P. (2009). Analysis of oberved and predicted tsunami travel times for the Pacic and Indian oceans. Pure Appl. Geophys., 166:301-324.

Epidemic spreading model to characterize misfolded proteins propagation in aging and associated neurodegenerative disorders.

PubMed

Iturria-Medina, Yasser; Sotero, Roberto C; Toussaint, Paule J; Evans, Alan C

2014-11-01

Misfolded proteins (MP) are a key component in aging and associated neurodegenerative disorders. For example, misfolded Amyloid-ß (Aß) and tau proteins are two neuropathogenic hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease. Mechanisms underlying intra-brain MP propagation/deposition remain essentially uncharacterized. Here, is introduced an epidemic spreading model (ESM) for MP dynamics that considers propagation-like interactions between MP agents and the brain's clearance response across the structural connectome. The ESM reproduces advanced Aß deposition patterns in the human brain (explaining 46∼56% of the variance in regional Aß loads, in 733 subjects from the ADNI database). Furthermore, this model strongly supports a) the leading role of Aß clearance deficiency and early Aß onset age during Alzheimer's disease progression, b) that effective anatomical distance from Aß outbreak region explains regional Aß arrival time and Aß deposition likelihood, c) the multi-factorial impact of APOE e4 genotype, gender and educational level on lifetime intra-brain Aß propagation, and d) the modulatory impact of Aß propagation history on tau proteins concentrations, supporting the hypothesis of an interrelated pathway between Aß pathophysiology and tauopathy. To our knowledge, the ESM is the first computational model highlighting the direct link between structural brain networks, production/clearance of pathogenic proteins and associated intercellular transfer mechanisms, individual genetic/demographic properties and clinical states in health and disease. In sum, the proposed ESM constitutes a promising framework to clarify intra-brain region to region transference mechanisms associated with aging and neurodegenerative disorders.

Epidemic Spreading Model to Characterize Misfolded Proteins Propagation in Aging and Associated Neurodegenerative Disorders

PubMed Central

Iturria-Medina, Yasser; Sotero, Roberto C.; Toussaint, Paule J.; Evans, Alan C.

2014-01-01

Misfolded proteins (MP) are a key component in aging and associated neurodegenerative disorders. For example, misfolded Amyloid-ß (Aß) and tau proteins are two neuropathogenic hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease. Mechanisms underlying intra-brain MP propagation/deposition remain essentially uncharacterized. Here, is introduced an epidemic spreading model (ESM) for MP dynamics that considers propagation-like interactions between MP agents and the brain's clearance response across the structural connectome. The ESM reproduces advanced Aß deposition patterns in the human brain (explaining 46∼56% of the variance in regional Aß loads, in 733 subjects from the ADNI database). Furthermore, this model strongly supports a) the leading role of Aß clearance deficiency and early Aß onset age during Alzheimer's disease progression, b) that effective anatomical distance from Aß outbreak region explains regional Aß arrival time and Aß deposition likelihood, c) the multi-factorial impact of APOE e4 genotype, gender and educational level on lifetime intra-brain Aß propagation, and d) the modulatory impact of Aß propagation history on tau proteins concentrations, supporting the hypothesis of an interrelated pathway between Aß pathophysiology and tauopathy. To our knowledge, the ESM is the first computational model highlighting the direct link between structural brain networks, production/clearance of pathogenic proteins and associated intercellular transfer mechanisms, individual genetic/demographic properties and clinical states in health and disease. In sum, the proposed ESM constitutes a promising framework to clarify intra-brain region to region transference mechanisms associated with aging and neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25412207

Do presenting symptoms explain sex differences in emergency department delays among patients with acute stroke?

PubMed

Gargano, Julia Warner; Wehner, Susan; Reeves, Mathew J

2009-04-01

Previous studies report that women with stroke may experience longer delays in diagnostic workup than men after arriving at the emergency department. We hypothesized that presenting symptom differences could explain these delays. Data were collected on 1922 acute stroke cases who presented to 15 hospitals participating in a statewide stroke registry. We evaluated 2 in-hospital time intervals: emergency department arrival to physician examination ("door-to-doctor") and emergency department arrival to brain imaging ("door-to-image"). We used parametric survival models to estimate time ratios, which represent the ratio of average times comparing women to men, after adjusting for symptom presentation and other confounders. Women were significantly less likely than men to present with any stroke warning sign or suspected stroke (87.5% versus 91.4%) or to report trouble with walking, balance, or dizziness (9.5% versus 13.7%). Difficulty speaking and loss of consciousness were associated with shorter door-to-doctor times. Weakness, facial droop, difficulty speaking, and loss of consciousness were associated with shorter door-to-image times, whereas difficulty with walking/balance was associated with longer door-to-image times. In adjusted analyses, women had 11% longer door-to-doctor intervals (time ratio, 1.11; 95%, CI 1.02 to 1.22) and 15% longer door-to-image intervals (time ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.25) after accounting for presenting symptoms, age, and other confounders. Furthermore, these sex differences remained evident after restricting to patients who arrived within 6 or within 2 hours of symptom onset. Women with acute stroke experienced greater emergency department delays than men, which were not attributable to differences in presenting symptoms, time of arrival, age, or other confounders.

Travel and Border Health Measures to Prevent the International Spread of Ebola.

PubMed

Cohen, Nicole J; Brown, Clive M; Alvarado-Ramy, Francisco; Bair-Brake, Heather; Benenson, Gabrielle A; Chen, Tai-Ho; Demma, Andrew J; Holton, N Kelly; Kohl, Katrin S; Lee, Amanda W; McAdam, David; Pesik, Nicki; Roohi, Shahrokh; Smith, C Lee; Waterman, Stephen H; Cetron, Martin S

2016-07-08

During the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic in West Africa, CDC implemented travel and border health measures to prevent international spread of the disease, educate and protect travelers and communities, and minimize disruption of international travel and trade. CDC staff provided in-country technical assistance for exit screening in countries in West Africa with Ebola outbreaks, implemented an enhanced entry risk assessment and management program for travelers at U.S. ports of entry, and disseminated information and guidance for specific groups of travelers and relevant organizations. New and existing partnerships were crucial to the success of this response, including partnerships with international organizations, such as the World Health Organization, the International Organization for Migration, and nongovernment organizations, as well as domestic partnerships with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and state and local health departments. Although difficult to assess, travel and border health measures might have helped control the epidemic's spread in West Africa by deterring or preventing travel by symptomatic or exposed persons and by educating travelers about protecting themselves. Enhanced entry risk assessment at U.S. airports facilitated management of travelers after arrival, including the recommended active monitoring. These measures also reassured airlines, shipping companies, port partners, and travelers that travel was safe and might have helped maintain continued flow of passenger traffic and resources needed for the response to the affected region. Travel and border health measures implemented in the countries with Ebola outbreaks laid the foundation for future reconstruction efforts related to borders and travel, including development of regional surveillance systems, cross-border coordination, and implementation of core capacities at designated official points of entry in accordance with the International Health Regulations (2005). New mechanisms developed during this response to target risk assessment and management of travelers arriving in the United States may enhance future public health responses. The activities summarized in this report would not have been possible without collaboration with many U.S. and international partners (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/partners.html).

Influences on influenza transmission within terminal based on hierarchical structure of personal contact network.

PubMed

Shao, Quan; Jia, Meng

2015-03-18

Since the outbreak of pandemics, influenza has caused extensive attention in the field of public health. It is actually hard to distinguish what is the most effective method to control the influenza transmission within airport terminal. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the influences of passenger source, immunity difference and social relation structure on the influenza transmission in terminal. A method combining hierarchical structure of personal contact network with agent-based SEIR model was proposed to analyze the characteristics of influenza diffusion within terminal. Based on the spatial distance between individuals, the hierarchical structure of personal contact network was defined to construct a complex relationship of passengers in the real world. Moreover, the agent-based SEIR model was improved by considering the individual level of influenza spread characteristics. To evaluate the method, this process was fused in simulation based on the constructed personal contact network. In the terminal we investigated, personal contact network was defined by following four layers: social relation structure, procedure partition, procedure area, and the whole terminal. With the growing of layer, the degree distribution curves move right. The value of degree distribution p(k) reached a peak at a specific value, and then back down. Besides, with the increase of layer α, the clustering coefficients presented a tendency to exponential decay. Based on the influenza transmission experiments, the main infected areas were concluded when considering different factors. Moreover, partition of passenger sources was found to impact a lot in departure, while social relation structure imposed a great influence in arrival. Besides, immunity difference exerted no obvious effect on the spread of influenza in the transmission process both in departure and arrival. The proposed method is efficient to reproduce the evolution process of influenza transmission, and exhibits various roles of each factor in different processes, also better reflects the effect of passenger topological character on influenza spread. It contributes to proposing effective influenza measures by airport relevant department and improving the efficiency and ability of epidemic prevention on the public health.

Do Arctic breeding geese track or overtake a green wave during spring migration?

PubMed

Si, Yali; Xin, Qinchuan; de Boer, Willem F; Gong, Peng; Ydenberg, Ronald C; Prins, Herbert H T

2015-03-04

Geese breeding in the Arctic have to do so in a short time-window while having sufficient body reserves. Hence, arrival time and body condition upon arrival largely influence breeding success. The green wave hypothesis posits that geese track a successively delayed spring flush of plant development on the way to their breeding sites. The green wave has been interpreted as representing either the onset of spring or the peak in nutrient biomass. However, geese tend to adopt a partial capital breeding strategy and might overtake the green wave to accomplish a timely arrival on the breeding site. To test the green wave hypothesis, we link the satellite-derived onset of spring and peak in nutrient biomass with the stopover schedule of individual Barnacle Geese. We find that geese track neither the onset of spring nor the peak in nutrient biomass. Rather, they arrive at the southernmost stopover site around the peak in nutrient biomass, and gradually overtake the green wave to match their arrival at the breeding site with the local onset of spring, thereby ensuring gosling benefit from the peak in nutrient biomass. Our approach for estimating plant development stages is critical in testing the migration strategies of migratory herbivores.

Origins and spread of fluted-point technology in the Canadian Ice-Free Corridor and eastern Beringia.

PubMed

Smith, Heather L; Goebel, Ted

2018-04-17

Fluted projectile points have long been recognized as the archaeological signature of early humans dispersing throughout the Western Hemisphere; however, we still lack a clear understanding of their appearance in the interior "Ice-Free Corridor" of western Canada and eastern Beringia. To solve this problem, we conducted a geometric morphometric shape analysis and a phylogenetic analysis of technological traits on fluted points from the archaeological records of northern Alaska and Yukon, in combination with artifacts from further south in Canada, the Great Plains, and eastern United States to investigate the plausibility of historical relatedness and evolutionary patterns in the spread of fluted-point technology in the latest Pleistocene and earliest Holocene. Results link morphologies and technologies of Clovis, certain western Canadian, and northern fluted points, suggesting that fluting technology arrived in the Arctic from a proximate source in the interior Ice-Free Corridor and ultimately from the earliest populations in temperate North America, complementing new genomic models explaining the peopling of the Americas.

Shock characterization of toad pins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weirick, L.J.; Navarro, M.J.

1996-05-01

The purpose of this program was to characterize Time Of Arrival Detectors (TOAD) pins response to shock loading with respect to risetime, amplitude, repeatability and consistency. TOAD pins were subjected to impacts of 35 to 420 kilobars amplitude and approximately 1 ms pulse width to investigate the timing spread of four pins and the voltage output profile of the individual pins. Sets of pins were also aged at 45{degree}, 60{degree} and 80{degree}C for approximately nine weeks before shock testing at 315 kilobars impact stress. Four sets of pins were heated to 50.2{degree}C (125{degree}F) for approximately two hours and then impactedmore » at either 50 or 315 kilobars. Also, four sets of pins were aged at 60{degree}C for nine weeks and then heated to 50.2{degree}C before shock testing at 50 and 315 kilobars impact stress, respectively. Particle velocity measurements at the contact point between the stainless steel targets and TOAD pins were made using a Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector (VISAR) to monitor both the amplitude and profile of the shock waves. {copyright} {ital 1996 American Institute of Physics.}« less

ElEvoHI: A Novel CME Prediction Tool for Heliospheric Imaging Combining an Elliptical Front with Drag-based Model Fitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rollett, T.; Möstl, C.; Isavnin, A.; Davies, J. A.; Kubicka, M.; Amerstorfer, U. V.; Harrison, R. A.

2016-06-01

In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, I.e., the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-ϕ, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 to ±6.5 hr and the arrival speed forecast by ≈ 250 to ±53 km s-1, depending on the ellipse aspect ratio assumed. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival speed prediction is potentially beneficial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength at Earth.

Global evolution of Equidae and Gomphotheriidae from South America.

PubMed

Prado, José L; Alberdi, María T

2014-08-01

The contemporary South American mammalian communities were determined by the emergence of the Isthmus of Panama and by the profound climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene. Horses and gomphotheres were 2 very conspicuous groups of immigrant mammals from North America that arrived in South America during the Pleistocene. The present study compiles updated data on the phylogeny, systematics and ecology of both groups in South America. The horses in South America are represented by 2 genera, Hippidion and Equus, as are the gomphotheres, represented by Cuvieronius and Stegomastodon. Both genera of horses include small (Hippidion devillei, H. saldiasi, E. andium and E. insulatus) and large forms (Equus neogeus and H. principale), which dispersed into South America using 2 different routes. The possible model for this dispersion indicates that the small forms used the Andes corridor, while larger horses dispersed through the eastern route and through some coastal areas. In the case of gomphotheres, Cuvieronius and Stegomastodon reached South America in 2 independent dispersal events, and Cuvieronius dispersed across the Andean corridor, while large Stegomastodon spread along the eastern route. Horses and gomphotheres present values of δ(13) C from woodlands to C4 grasslands. Hippidion present lower values of δ(13) C than Equus in the late Pleistocene, whereas the gomphotheres diverge from value of δ(18) O, reflecting that Cuvieronius inhabited the Andean corridor and Stegomastodon dispersed through eastern plains. The gomphothere and horse species recorded in South America became extinct around the time that humans arrived. © 2013 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

A Human-in-the Loop Evaluation of a Coordinated Arrival Departure Scheduling Operations for Managing Departure Delays at LaGuardia Airport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Paul U.; Smith, Nancy M.; Bienert, Nancy; Brasil, Connie; Buckley, Nathan; Chevalley, Eric; Homola, Jeffrey; Omar, Faisal; Parke, Bonny; Yoo, Hyo-Sang

2016-01-01

LaGuardia (LGA) departure delay was identified by the stakeholders and subject matter experts as a significant bottleneck in the New York metropolitan area. Departure delay at LGA is primarily due to dependency between LGA's arrival and departure runways: LGA departures cannot begin takeoff until arrivals have cleared the runway intersection. If one-in one-out operations are not maintained and a significant arrival-to-departure imbalance occurs, the departure backup can persist through the rest of the day. At NASA Ames Research Center, a solution called "Departure-sensitive Arrival Spacing" (DSAS) was developed to maximize the departure throughput without creating significant delays in the arrival traffic. The concept leverages a Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) operations that create and manage the arrival schedule to the runway threshold and added an interface enhancement to the traffic manager's timeline to provide the ability to manually adjust inter-arrival spacing to build precise gaps for multiple departures between arrivals. A more complete solution would include a TSS algorithm enhancement that could automatically build these multi-departure gaps. With this set of capabilities, inter-arrival spacing could be controlled for optimal departure throughput. The concept was prototyped in a human-in-the- loop (HITL) simulation environment so that operational requirements such as coordination procedures, timing and magnitude of TSS schedule adjustments, and display features for Tower, TRACON and Traffic Management Unit could be determined. A HITL simulation was conducted in August 2014 to evaluate the concept in terms of feasibility, controller workload impact, and potential benefits. Three conditions were tested, namely a Baseline condition without scheduling, TSS condition that schedules the arrivals to the runway threshold, and TSS+DSAS condition that adjusts the arrival schedule to maximize the departure throughput. The results showed that during high arrival demand period, departure throughput could be incrementally increased under TSS and TSS+DSAS conditions without compromising the arrival throughput. The concept, operational procedures, and summary results were originally published in ATM20151 but detailed results were omitted. This paper expands on the earlier paper to provide the detailed results on throughput, conformance, safety, flight time/distance, etc. that provide extra insights into the feasibility and the potential benefits on the concept.

A method for improving arrival-to-electrocardiogram time in emergency department chest pain patients and the effect on door-to-balloon time for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Takakuwa, Kevin M; Burek, Gregory A; Estepa, Adrian T; Shofer, Frances S

2009-10-01

The objectives were to determine if an emergency department (ED) could improve the adherence to a door-to-electrocardiogram (ECG) time goal of 10 minutes or less for patients who presented to an ED with chest pain and the effect of this adherence on door-to-balloon (DTB) time for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) cardiac catheterization (cath) alert patients. This was a planned 1-month before-and-after interventional study design for implementing a new process for obtaining ECGs in patients presenting to the study ED with chest pain. Prior to the change, patients were registered and triaged before an ECG was obtained. The new procedure required registration clerks to identify those with chest pain and directly overhead page or call a designated ECG technician. This technician had other ED duties, but prioritized performing ECGs and delivering them to attending physicians. A full registration process occurred after the clinical staff performed their initial assessment. The primary outcome was the total percentage of patients with chest pain who received an ECG within 10 minutes of ED arrival. The secondary outcome was DTB time for patients with STEMI who were emergently cath alerted. Data were analyzed using mean differences, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and relative risk (RR) regression to adjust for possible confounders. A total of 719 patients were studied: 313 before and 405 after the intervention. The mean (+/-standard deviation [SD]) age was 50 (+/-16) years, 54% were women, 57% were African American, and 36% were white. Patients walked in 89% of the time; 11% arrived by ambulance. Thirty-nine percent were triaged as emergent and 61% as nonemergent. Patients presented during daytime 68% of the time, and 32% presented during the night. Before the intervention, 16% received an ECG at 10 minutes or less. After the intervention, 64% met the time requirement, for a mean difference of 47.3% (95% CI = 40.8% to 53.3%, p < 0.0001). Results were not affected by age, sex, race, mode of arrival, triage classification, or time of arrival. For patients with STEMI cath alerts, four were seen before and seven after the intervention. No patients before the intervention had ECG time within 10 minutes, and one of four had DTB time of <90 minutes. After the intervention, all seven patients had ECG time within 10 minutes; the three arriving during weekday hours when the cath team was on site had DTB times of <90 minutes, but the four arriving at night and on weekends when the cath team was off site had DTB times of >90 minutes. The overall percentage of patients with a door-to-ECG time within 10 minutes improved without increasing staffing. An ECG was performed within 10 minutes of arrival for all patients who were STEMI cath alerted, but DTB time under 90 minutes was achieved only when the cath team was on site.

Tidal Analysis and Arrival Process Mining Using Automatic Identification System (AIS) Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

elevation at the time of vessel movement and calculating the tidal dependence (TD) parameter to 23 U.S. port areas for the years 2012– 2014. Tidal prediction...predictions, obtained from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, are used to rank relative tidal dependence for arriving cargo and...sector traffic percentages and tidal dependence metric ............................. 11 Arrival process mining

A matched-peak inversion approach for ocean acoustic travel-time tomography

PubMed

Skarsoulis

2000-03-01

A new approach for the inversion of travel-time data is proposed, based on the matching between model arrivals and observed peaks. Using the linearized model relations between sound-speed and arrival-time perturbations about a set of background states, arrival times and associated errors are calculated on a fine grid of model states discretizing the sound-speed parameter space. Each model state can explain (identify) a number of observed peaks in a particular reception lying within the uncertainty intervals of the corresponding predicted arrival times. The model states that explain the maximum number of observed peaks are considered as the more likely parametric descriptions of the reception; these model states can be described in terms of mean values and variances providing a statistical answer (matched-peak solution) to the inversion problem. A basic feature of the matched-peak inversion approach is that each reception can be treated independently, i.e., no constraints are posed from previous-reception identification or inversion results. Accordingly, there is no need for initialization of the inversion procedure and, furthermore, discontinuous travel-time data can be treated. The matched-peak inversion method is demonstrated by application to 9-month-long travel-time data from the Thetis-2 tomography experiment in the western Mediterranean sea.

Optimizing correlation techniques for improved earthquake location

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaff, D.P.; Bokelmann, G.H.R.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Zanzerkia, E.; Waldhauser, F.; Beroza, G.C.

2004-01-01

Earthquake location using relative arrival time measurements can lead to dramatically reduced location errors and a view of fault-zone processes with unprecedented detail. There are two principal reasons why this approach reduces location errors. The first is that the use of differenced arrival times to solve for the vector separation of earthquakes removes from the earthquake location problem much of the error due to unmodeled velocity structure. The second reason, on which we focus in this article, is that waveform cross correlation can substantially reduce measurement error. While cross correlation has long been used to determine relative arrival times with subsample precision, we extend correlation measurements to less similar waveforms, and we introduce a general quantitative means to assess when correlation data provide an improvement over catalog phase picks. We apply the technique to local earthquake data from the Calaveras Fault in northern California. Tests for an example streak of 243 earthquakes demonstrate that relative arrival times with normalized cross correlation coefficients as low as ???70%, interevent separation distances as large as to 2 km, and magnitudes up to 3.5 as recorded on the Northern California Seismic Network are more precise than relative arrival times determined from catalog phase data. Also discussed are improvements made to the correlation technique itself. We find that for large time offsets, our implementation of time-domain cross correlation is often more robust and that it recovers more observations than the cross spectral approach. Longer time windows give better results than shorter ones. Finally, we explain how thresholds and empirical weighting functions may be derived to optimize the location procedure for any given region of interest, taking advantage of the respective strengths of diverse correlation and catalog phase data on different length scales.

Timing Comparisons for GLEs and High-energy Proton Events using GPS Proton Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernstein, V.; Winter, L. M.; Carver, M.; Morley, S.

2017-12-01

The newly released LANL GPS particle sensor data offers a unique snapshot of access of relativistic particles into the geomagnetic field. Currently, 23 of the 31 operational GPS satellites host energetic particle detectors which can detect the arrival of high-energy solar protons associated with Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs). We compare the timing profiles of solar energetic proton detections from GPS satellites as well as from ground-based Neutron Monitors and GOES spacecraft at geostationary orbit in order to understand how high-energy protons from the Sun enter the geomagnetic field and investigate potential differences in arrival time of energetic protons at GPS satellites as a function of location. Previous studies could only use one or two spacecraft at a similar altitude to track the arrival of energetic particles. With GPS data, we can now test whether the particles arrive isotropically, as assumed, or whether there exist differences in the timing and energetics viewed by each of the individual satellites. Extensions of this work could lead to improvements in space weather forecasting that predict more localized risk estimates for space-based technology.

Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.; ...

2016-04-01

Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on received measurements from sensors is an important research area that is attracting much research interest. In this paper, we present localization algorithms using time of arrivals (TOA) and time difference of arrivals (TDOA) to achieve high accuracy under line-of-sight conditions. The circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) location systems both use nonlinear equations that relate the locations of the sensors and tracked objects. These nonlinear equations can develop accuracy challenges because of the existence of measurement errors and efficiency challenges that lead to high computational burdens. Least squares-based andmore » maximum likelihood-based algorithms have become the most popular categories of location estimators. We also summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various positioning algorithms. By improving measurement techniques and localization algorithms, localization applications can be extended into the signal-processing-related domains of radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.« less

Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.

Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on received measurements from sensors is an important research area that is attracting much research interest. In this paper, we present localization algorithms using time of arrivals (TOA) and time difference of arrivals (TDOA) to achieve high accuracy under line-of-sight conditions. The circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) location systems both use nonlinear equations that relate the locations of the sensors and tracked objects. These nonlinear equations can develop accuracy challenges because of the existence of measurement errors and efficiency challenges that lead to high computational burdens. Least squares-based andmore » maximum likelihood-based algorithms have become the most popular categories of location estimators. We also summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various positioning algorithms. By improving measurement techniques and localization algorithms, localization applications can be extended into the signal-processing-related domains of radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.« less

Sound System Engineering & Optimization: The effects of multiple arrivals on the intelligibility of reinforced speech

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, Timothy James

The effects of multiple arrivals on the intelligibility of speech produced by live-sound reinforcement systems are examined. The intent is to determine if correlations exist between the manipulation of sound system optimization parameters and the subjective attribute speech intelligibility. Given the number, and wide range, of variables involved, this exploratory research project attempts to narrow the focus of further studies. Investigated variables are delay time between signals arriving from multiple elements of a loudspeaker array, array type and geometry and the two-way interactions of speech-to-noise ratio and array geometry with delay time. Intelligibility scores were obtained through subjective evaluation of binaural recordings, reproduced via headphone, using the Modified Rhyme Test. These word-score results are compared with objective measurements of Speech Transmission Index (STI). Results indicate that both variables, delay time and array geometry, have significant effects on intelligibility. Additionally, it is seen that all three of the possible two-way interactions have significant effects. Results further reveal that the STI measurement method overestimates the decrease in intelligibility due to short delay times between multiple arrivals.

Clock Synchronization Through Time-Variant Underwater Acoustic Channels

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

stage, we analyze a series of chirp responses to identify the least time -varying multipath present in the channel between the two nodes. Based on the... based on the detected arrivals and determines the most stable one based on the correlation coefficient of a model fit to the time -of-arrival estimates...short periods of time . Nevertheless, signal fluctuations can occur due to transceiver motion or inherent changes within the propagation medium

The spreading time in SIS epidemics on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

2018-03-01

In a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) process, we investigate the spreading time Tm, which is the time when the number of infected nodes in the metastable state is first reached, starting from the outbreak of the epidemics. We observe that the spreading time Tm resembles a lognormal-like distribution, though with different deep tails, both for the Markovian and the non-Markovian infection process, which implies that the spreading time can be very long with a relatively high probability. In addition, we show that a stronger virus, with a higher effective infection rate τ or an earlier timing of the infection attempts, does not always lead to a shorter average spreading time E [Tm ] . We numerically demonstrate that the average spreading time E [Tm ] in the complete graph and the star graph scales logarithmically as a function of the network size N for a fixed fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state.

What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the ``arrival constraint'' hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodenough, Anne E.; Hart, Adam G.; Elliot, Simon L.

2011-01-01

Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher ( Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits ( Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.

What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the "arrival constraint" hypothesis.

PubMed

Goodenough, Anne E; Hart, Adam G; Elliot, Simon L

2011-01-01

Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.

Route Optimization for Offloading Congested Meter Fixes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Min; Zelinski, Shannon

2016-01-01

The Optimized Route Capability (ORC) concept proposed by the FAA facilitates traffic managers to identify and resolve arrival flight delays caused by bottlenecks formed at arrival meter fixes when there exists imbalance between arrival fixes and runways. ORC makes use of the prediction capability of existing automation tools, monitors the traffic delays based on these predictions, and searches the best reroutes upstream of the meter fixes based on the predictions and estimated arrival schedules when delays are over a predefined threshold. Initial implementation and evaluation of the ORC concept considered only reroutes available at the time arrival congestion was first predicted. This work extends previous work by introducing an additional dimension in reroute options such that ORC can find the best time to reroute and overcome the 'firstcome- first-reroute' phenomenon. To deal with the enlarged reroute solution space, a genetic algorithm was developed to solve this problem. Experiments were conducted using the same traffic scenario used in previous work, when an arrival rush was created for one of the four arrival meter fixes at George Bush Intercontinental Houston Airport. Results showed the new approach further improved delay savings. The suggested route changes from the new approach were on average 30 minutes later than those using other approaches, and fewer numbers of reroutes were required. Fewer numbers of reroutes reduce operational complexity and later reroutes help decision makers deal with uncertain situations.

SPX-8 SpaceX Dragon Spacecraft Grappled by SSRMS

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-04-10

iss047e050978 (4/10/2016) --- The SpaceX Dragon cargo spaceship is grappled by the International Space Station’s Canadarm2. The spacecraft is delivering about 7,000 pounds of science and research investigations, including the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module, known as BEAM. Dragon’s arrival marked the first time two commercial cargo vehicles have been docked simultaneously at the space station. Orbital ATK’s Cygnus spacecraft arrived to the station just over two weeks ago. With the arrival of Dragon, the space station ties the record for most vehicles on station at one time – six.

[History of human epidemic and endemic diseases in the southwest Indian Ocean].

PubMed

Gaüzère, B-A; Aubry, P

2013-05-01

Smallpox has been known in the Mascarene Islands since 1729, and in 1898, the vaccinogenic and anti-rabies Institute of Tananarive, the future Pasteur Institute of Madagascar, was created to combat it. Cholera first arrived in the Mascarenes in 1819, but did not affect the Comoros Islands and Madagascar until the current pandemic. Bubonic plague has beset the ports of Madagascar and the Mascarenes since 1898. Girard and Robic developed the anti-plague vaccine in 1931 at the Pasteur Institute of Madagascar. The Mascarenes lost their reputation as Eden when malaria arrived in 1841, and this disease remains prominent in Madagascar and Comoros. Leprosy has been known in La Réunion since 1726 and is still very present in Mayotte, Anjouan, and Madagascar. Leptospirosis is a public health problem, except in Madagascar and the Comoros. Dengue, chikungunya, and Rift Valley fever are also present. HIV/AIDS is not a major concern, except in Mauritius, where it was spread by injection drug use, in the Seychelles and in Madagascar's largest cities. Madagascar is the principal site worldwide of chromoblastomycosis, first described there in 1914.

The implementation of biosecurity practices and visitor protocols on non-commercial horse properties in New Zealand.

PubMed

Rosanowski, S M; Rogers, C W; Cogger, N; Benschop, J; Stevenson, M A

2012-11-01

A survey was conducted to investigate biosecurity practices on non-commercial horse properties, to describe the number of visits by horse professionals and any protocols that visitors were required to follow before interacting with resident horses. Data were collected in November 2009 during a cross-sectional study of non-commercial horse properties, in New Zealand, selected using generalised random-tessellated stratified design and a self-administered postal questionnaire. Data were described and the associations between property-level factors and biosecurity practices were analysed using logistic regression analysis. In total there were 791 respondents from non-commercial horse properties, of which 660 (83%) answer at least one question relating to biosecurity practices. Of the respondents, 95% had at least one biosecurity practice for arriving horses. Only 31% of properties isolated horses for more than four days, and few respondents checked for pyrexia or other clinical signs of infectious disease in new horses. Moving horses from a property was associated with the implementation of biosecurity practices and practices specific to the clinical signs of respiratory disease. Overall, 79% of properties had horse professional's visit, but only 33% of respondents reported biosecurity protocols for these visitors. Most properties had some knowledge about newly arriving horses, but the effectiveness of these practices for biosecurity were questionable, as few practices would stop disease spread to resident horses. Horse professionals are likely candidates for disease spread due to contact with horses, limited visitor protocols and the frequency of visits. The development of a plan to improve biosecurity for endemic and exotic disease is recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementation of a clinical pathway based on a computerized physician order entry system for ischemic stroke attenuates off-hour and weekend effects in the ED.

PubMed

Yang, Jong Min; Park, Yoo Seok; Chung, Sung Phil; Chung, Hyun Soo; Lee, Hye Sun; You, Je Sung; Lee, Shin Ho; Park, Incheol

2014-08-01

Admission on weekends and off-hours has been associated with poor outcomes and mortality from acute stroke. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether an organized clinical pathway (CP) for ischemic stroke can effectively reduce the time from arrival to evaluation and treatment in the emergency department (ED) and improve outcomes, regardless of the time from arrival in the ED. We conducted a retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients included in the prospective registry database in the Brain Salvage through Emergency Stroke Therapy program, which uses the computerized physician order entry (CPOE) system. Patients were classified based on their time of arrival in the ED: group 1, normal working hours on weekdays; group 2, off-hours on weekdays; group 3, normal working hours on weekends; and group 4, off-hours on weekends. Clinical outcomes were categorized according to 30 days in-hospital mortality, in-hospital mortality, and the modified Rankin score during a single length of stay (LOS). No time intervals differed significantly among the 4 patient groups who received intravenous administration of tissue plasminogen activator (IV-tPA). Use of IV-tPA (P = .5110) was not affected by arrival in the ED on off-days or weekends. The overall mortality rate was 3.9%, and the median LOS was 7 days (Interquartile range (IQR), 5-10). By Kaplan-Meier analysis, the cumulative probability of mortality and survival did not differ significantly among the 4 groups over 30 days (P = .1557). An organized CP, based on CPOE, for ischemic stroke can effectively attenuate disparities in the time interval between ED arrival to evaluation and treatment regardless of ED arrival time. This pathway may also help to eliminate off-hour and weekend effects on outcomes from ischemic stroke. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scheduling and Delivering Aircraft to Departure Fixes in the NY Metroplex with Controller-Managed Spacing Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chevalley, Eric; Parke, Bonny; Kraut, Josh M.; Bienert, Nancy; Omar, Faisal; Palmer, Everett A.

2015-01-01

In this paper, successful Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) scheduling systems for arrivals are considered and adapted to apply to departures. We present a concept of operations that integrates Controller-Managed Spacing tools for departures (CMS-D) with existing tactical departure scheduling tools to coordinate demand at departure fixes in a metroplex environment. We tested our concept in a Human-in-the-Loop simulation and compared the effect of two scheduling conditions: 1) "Departure Scheduling" consisting of an emulation of the Integrated Departure and Arrival Capability (IDAC) where Towers and a Planner (Traffic Management Coordinator at the appropriate facility) coordinate aircraft scheduled takeoff times to departure fixes; and 2) "Arrival Sensitive Departure Scheduling" where, in addition, the Tower and Planner also consider arrival Scheduled Time of Arrivals (STAs) at the airport's dependent runway. Results indicate little difference between the two scheduling conditions, but a large difference between the No Tools and the two scheduling conditions with CMS-D tools. The scheduling/CMS-D tools conditions markedly reduced heading, speed clearances, and workload for controllers who were merging flows at the departure fixes. In the tool conditions, departure controllers conditioned departures earlier rather than later when aircraft were tied near the departure fixes. In the scheduling/CMS-D tools conditions, departures crossed the departure fixes 50 seconds earlier and with an 8% error rate (consisting of time ahead or behind desired time of arrival) compared to a 19% error rate in the No Tool condition. Two exploratory runs showed that similar beneficial effects can be obtained only with the CMS-D tools without scheduling takeoff times, but at the cost of a somewhat higher workload for controllers, indicating the benefits of pre-departure scheduling of aircraft with minimal delays. Hence, we found that CMS-D tools were very beneficial in the metroplex environment we tested but that further research is needed to clarify the benefits of the various scheduling approaches.

Operational warning of interplanetary shock arrivals using energetic particle data from ACE: Real-time Upstream Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donegan, M.; Vandegriff, J.; Ho, G. C.; Julia, S. J.

2004-12-01

We report on an operational system which provides advance warning and predictions of arrival times at Earth of interplanetary (IP) shocks that originate at the Sun. The data stream used in our prediction algorithm is real-time and comes from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Since locally accelerated energetic storm particle (ESP) events accompany most IP shocks, their arrival can be predicted using ESP event signatures. We have previously reported on the development and implementation of an algorithm which recognizes the upstream particle signature of approaching IP shocks and provides estimated countdown predictions. A web-based system (see (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/index.html) combines this prediction capability with real-time ACE/EPAM data provided by the NOAA Space Environment Center. The most recent ACE data is continually processed and predictions of shock arrival time are updated every five minutes when an event is impending. An operational display is provided to indicate advisories and countdowns for the event. Running the algorithm on a test set of historical events, we obtain a median error of about 10 hours for predictions made 24-36 hours before actual shock arrival and about 6 hours when the shock is 6-12 hours away. This system can provide critical information to mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists by providing significant lead-time for approaching events. Recently, we have made improvements to the triggering mechanism as well as re-training the neural network, and here we report prediction results from the latest system.

Experimental Evaluation of CTAS/FMS Integration in TRACON Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romahn, Stephen; Palmer, Everett; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

A CTAS/FMS integration project at Ames Research Center addresses extensions to the CTAS air traffic management concept, among them the introduction of arrival routes specially designed for the use with a Flight Management System. These FMS arrival routes shall allow for the use of the INS' lateral and vertical navigation capabilities throughout the arrival until final approach. For the use in this project CTAS controller support tools that compliment the concept have been created. These tools offer controllers access to CTAS' prediction and planning capabilities in terms of speed and route advisories. The objective is to allow for a more strategic way of controlling aircraft. Expected benefits are an increase in arrival rate and a reduction of average travel times through TRACER airspace. A real time simulation is being conducted at Ames to investigate how FMS arrivals and approach transitions - with and without the support of CTAS tools - effect the flow of arriving traffic within TRACER airspace and the controllers' task performance. Four conditions will be investigated and compared to today's technique of controlling traffic with tactical vectoring: 1. FMS arrivals and approach transitions are available for controllers to issue to equipped aircraft - traffic permitting; 2. Speed advisories that match CTAS' runway balancing and sequencing plan are displayed to Feeder controllers; 3. Approach transition advisories (e.g., location of the base turn point) are displayed to Final controllers for tactical clearances ("Turn base now"); and 4. Approach transition advisories (voice and data link) are generated by CTAS and displayed to final controllers for strategic voice clearances ("Turn base five miles after waypoint xyz") or prepared in terms of a trajectory description for strategic data link clearance. Scenarios used in the study will represent current traffic and vary in density of arriving traffic and the kind and mix of equipage of arriving aircraft. Data will be collected from experiment runs with active TRACON controllers on the final approach spacing, the aircraft's speed profiles, the controllers interaction with CTAS tools, and number and timing of pilot controllers communications under the described conditions.

A best on-line algorithm for single machine scheduling the equal length jobs with the special chain precedence and delivery time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Cunchang; Mu, Yundong

2013-03-01

In this paper, we consider a single machine on-line scheduling problem with the special chains precedence and delivery time. All jobs arrive over time. The chains chainsi arrive at time ri , it is known that the processing and delivery time of each job on the chain satisfy one special condition CD a forehand: if the job J(i)j is the predecessor of the job J(i)k on the chain chaini, then they satisfy p(i)j = p(i)k = p >= qj >= qk , i = 1,2, ---,n , where pj and qj denote the processing time and the delivery time of the job Jj respectively. Obviously, if the arrival jobs have no chains precedence, it shows that the length of the corresponding chain is 1. The objective is to minimize the time by which all jobs have been delivered. We provide an on-line algorithm with a competitive ratio of √2 , and the result is the best possible.

PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kubicka, M.; Möstl, C.; Amerstorfer, T.

2016-12-20

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B{sub z}. Predicting the strength and duration of B{sub z} inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B{sub z} problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B{sub z}, and resulting disturbance storm time ( Dst ) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interactingmore » CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX , resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind . Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s{sup −1}; observed: 488 ± 30 km s{sup −1}), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line.« less

Underwater passive acoustic localization of Pacific walruses in the northeastern Chukchi Sea.

PubMed

Rideout, Brendan P; Dosso, Stan E; Hannay, David E

2013-09-01

This paper develops and applies a linearized Bayesian localization algorithm based on acoustic arrival times of marine mammal vocalizations at spatially-separated receivers which provides three-dimensional (3D) location estimates with rigorous uncertainty analysis. To properly account for uncertainty in receiver parameters (3D hydrophone locations and synchronization times) and environmental parameters (water depth and sound-speed correction), these quantities are treated as unknowns constrained by prior estimates and prior uncertainties. Unknown scaling factors on both the prior and arrival-time uncertainties are estimated by minimizing Akaike's Bayesian information criterion (a maximum entropy condition). Maximum a posteriori estimates for sound source locations and times, receiver parameters, and environmental parameters are calculated simultaneously using measurements of arrival times for direct and interface-reflected acoustic paths. Posterior uncertainties for all unknowns incorporate both arrival time and prior uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that, for the cases considered here, linearization errors are small and the lack of an accurate sound-speed profile does not cause significant biases in the estimated locations. A sequence of Pacific walrus vocalizations, recorded in the Chukchi Sea northwest of Alaska, is localized using this technique, yielding a track estimate and uncertainties with an estimated speed comparable to normal walrus swim speeds.

Computing arrival times of firefighting resources for initial attack

Treesearch

Romain M. Mees

1978-01-01

Dispatching of firefighting resources requires instantaneous or precalculated decisions. A FORTRAN computer program has been developed that can provide a list of resources in order of computed arrival time for initial attack on a fire. The program requires an accurate description of the existing road system and a list of all resources available on a planning unit....

Upgraded FAA Airfield Capacity Model. Volume 1. Supplemental User’s Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-02-01

SIGMAR (P4.0) cc 1-4 -standard deviation, in seconds, of arrival runway occupancy time (R.O.T.). SIGMAA (F4.0) cc 5-8 -standard deviation, in seconds...iI SI GMAC - The standard deviation of the time from departure clearance to start of roll. SIGMAR - The standard deviation of the arrival runway

Central Atlantic Break-up: A competition between CAMP Hotspot and thinning rate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapin, F.; Maurin, T.

2017-12-01

The break-up of the Central Atlantic is known to have ended at about 190Myrs while the CAMP (Central Atlantic Magmatic Province) was still active. Several seismic lines, acquired recently in the deep offshore Senegal and Mauritanian domain, provide detailed images of continent-ocean transition and the oceanic crust architecture. Their interpretation is the opportunity to describe the progressive interaction between the hot spot activity, the architecture and timing of break up and the oceanic crust production. In the North, seismic data and gravity/magnetic inversions suggest an extremely thinned continental crust with possible mantle exhumation. In the South, the continental crust is thick and the transition to oceanic crust is sharp. In addition, three oceanic crust facies were described along the margin in an extremely slow spreading ridge setting ( 0.8cm/yr during the first 20Myrs): facies (1) with a poorly imaged Moho and a strongly faulted thin oceanic crust or exhumed mantle; facies (2) with an extensively faulted 6km thick oceanic crust; facies (3) with abnormally thick (9km) oceanic crust marked by SDR-type reflections. They are diachronous from North to South and the two first one disappear southwards and (facies 3) being younger toward the North. Only a single very thick oceanic crust (12-14km) remains in front of the Guinea Plateau. We concluded that, in the South, the break-up had been forced through a thick or thickened continental crust due to the remnant activity of the CAMP Hotspot. In the North, the magmatic pulse arrived far after the break-up during the spreading and the thinning of the continental crust could lead to hyper extension. This evolution emphasizes that the architecture, and thus processes leading to the break-up can vary a lot considering the influence of thermal vertical forces (mantle dynamics/hotspot/magmatism) and mechanical horizontal forces (plate movement/faulting/spreading), both of them being necessary for a rift to succeed.

An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT

PubMed Central

Pozza, Riccardo; Georgoulas, Stylianos; Moessner, Klaus; Nati, Michele; Gluhak, Alexander; Krco, Srdjan

2016-01-01

In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP) for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT) is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process. PMID:27827909

An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT.

PubMed

Pozza, Riccardo; Georgoulas, Stylianos; Moessner, Klaus; Nati, Michele; Gluhak, Alexander; Krco, Srdjan

2016-11-04

In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP) for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT) is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process.

DRAW: Dynamic Routes for Arrivals in Weather: Concept and Trial Planning Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gong, Chester

2016-01-01

Presentation for FAA sponsored meeting to discuss time-based metering trial planning. This presentation describes the Dynamic Routes for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) concept and the associated trial planning functionality.

X-ray characterization of a multichannel smart-pixel array detector.

PubMed

Ross, Steve; Haji-Sheikh, Michael; Huntington, Andrew; Kline, David; Lee, Adam; Li, Yuelin; Rhee, Jehyuk; Tarpley, Mary; Walko, Donald A; Westberg, Gregg; Williams, George; Zou, Haifeng; Landahl, Eric

2016-01-01

The Voxtel VX-798 is a prototype X-ray pixel array detector (PAD) featuring a silicon sensor photodiode array of 48 × 48 pixels, each 130 µm × 130 µm × 520 µm thick, coupled to a CMOS readout application specific integrated circuit (ASIC). The first synchrotron X-ray characterization of this detector is presented, and its ability to selectively count individual X-rays within two independent arrival time windows, a programmable energy range, and localized to a single pixel is demonstrated. During our first trial run at Argonne National Laboratory's Advance Photon Source, the detector achieved a 60 ns gating time and 700 eV full width at half-maximum energy resolution in agreement with design parameters. Each pixel of the PAD holds two independent digital counters, and the discriminator for X-ray energy features both an upper and lower threshold to window the energy of interest discarding unwanted background. This smart-pixel technology allows energy and time resolution to be set and optimized in software. It is found that the detector linearity follows an isolated dead-time model, implying that megahertz count rates should be possible in each pixel. Measurement of the line and point spread functions showed negligible spatial blurring. When combined with the timing structure of the synchrotron storage ring, it is demonstrated that the area detector can perform both picosecond time-resolved X-ray diffraction and fluorescence spectroscopy measurements.

High resolution time of arrival estimation for a cooperative sensor system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morhart, C.; Biebl, E. M.

2010-09-01

Distance resolution of cooperative sensors is limited by the signal bandwidth. For the transmission mainly lower frequency bands are used which are more narrowband than classical radar frequencies. To compensate this resolution problem the combination of a pseudo-noise coded pulse compression system with superresolution time of arrival estimation is proposed. Coded pulsecompression allows secure and fast distance measurement in multi-user scenarios which can easily be adapted for data transmission purposes (Morhart and Biebl, 2009). Due to the lack of available signal bandwidth the measurement accuracy degrades especially in multipath scenarios. Superresolution time of arrival algorithms can improve this behaviour by estimating the channel impulse response out of a band-limited channel view. For the given test system the implementation of a MUSIC algorithm permitted a two times better distance resolution as the standard pulse compression.

A Comparison of Center/TRACON Automation System and Airline Time of Arrival Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heere, Karen R.; Zelenka, Richard E.

2000-01-01

Benefits from information sharing between an air traffic service provider and a major air carrier are evaluated. Aircraft arrival time schedules generated by the NASA/FAA Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) were provided to the American Airlines System Operations Control Center in Fort Worth, Texas, during a field trial of a specialized CTAS display. A statistical analysis indicates that the CTAS schedules, based on aircraft trajectories predicted from real-time radar and weather data, are substantially more accurate than the traditional airline arrival time estimates, constructed from flight plans and en route crew updates. The improvement offered by CTAS is especially advantageous during periods of heavy traffic and substantial terminal area delay, allowing the airline to avoid large predictive errors with serious impact on the efficiency and profitability of flight operations.

Effect of time-varying tropospheric models on near-regional and regional infrasound propagation as constrained by observational data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Mihan H.; Stump, Brian W.; Hayward, Chris

2008-06-01

The Chulwon Seismo-Acoustic Array (CHNAR) is a regional seismo-acoustic array with co-located seismometers and infrasound microphones on the Korean peninsula. Data from forty-two days over the course of a year between October 1999 and August 2000 were analyzed; 2052 infrasound-only arrivals and 23 seismo-acoustic arrivals were observed over the six week study period. A majority of the signals occur during local working hours, hour 0 to hour 9 UT and appear to be the result of cultural activity located within a 250 km radius. Atmospheric modeling is presented for four sample days during the study period, one in each of November, February, April, and August. Local meteorological data sampled at six hour intervals is needed to accurately model the observed arrivals and this data produced highly temporally variable thermal ducts that propagated infrasound signals within 250 km, matching the temporal variation in the observed arrivals. These ducts change dramatically on the order of hours, and meteorological data from the appropriate sampled time frame was necessary to interpret the observed arrivals.

Using the ENTLN lightning catalog to identify thunder signals in the USArray Transportable Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tytell, J. E.; Reyes, J. C.; Vernon, F.; Sloop, C.; Heckman, S.

2013-12-01

Severe weather events can pose a challenge for seismic analysts who regularly see non-seismic signals recorded at the stations. Sometimes, the noise from thunder can be confused with signals from seismic events such as quarry blasts or earthquakes depending on where and when the noise is observed. Automatic analysis of data is also severely affected by big amplitude arrivals that we could safely ignore. A comprehensive lightning catalog for the continental US in conjunction with a travel time model for thunder arrivals can help analysts identify some of these unknown sources. Researchers from Earthscope's USArray Transportable Array (TA) have partnered with the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in an effort to create such a catalog. Predicted thunder arrivals from some powerful meteorological systems affecting the main TA footprint will undergo extensive evaluation. We will examine the veracity of the predicted arrivals at different distances and azimuths and the time accuracy of the model. A combination of barometric pressure and seismic signals will be use to verify these arrivals.

Solar wind modulation of UK lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Chris; Harrison, Giles; Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew; Barnard, Luke

2013-04-01

The response of lightning rates in the UK to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. The fast solar wind streams' arrivals are determined from modulation of the solar wind Vy component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are then determined from the very low frequency Arrival Time Difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed stream's source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 day rate of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a rapid decrease in cosmic ray flux and an increase in lightning rates over the UK, persisting for around 40 days. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again for around 40 days after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This increase in lightning may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.

Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study.

PubMed

Bogoch, Isaac I; Brady, Oliver J; Kraemer, Moritz U G; German, Matthew; Creatore, Maria I; Brent, Shannon; Watts, Alexander G; Hay, Simon I; Kulkarni, Manisha A; Brownstein, John S; Khan, Kamran

2016-11-01

As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zika's primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika virus-affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1·2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic, and social consequences of Zika virus, especially in resource-limited countries. Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource limited countries in Africa and Asia-Pacific: A modeling study

PubMed Central

German, Matthew; Creatore, Maria I.; Brent, Shannon; Watts, Alexander G.; Hay, Simon I.; Kulkarni, Manisha A.; Brownstein, John S.; Khan, Kamran

2016-01-01

Summary Background As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Methods Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zika’s primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Findings An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include, India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1·2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). Interpretation Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic and social consequences of Zika virus, especially in resource-limited countries. Funding Source Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. PMID:27593584

Special report. TB and health care workers: the challenge for hospitals and their safety directors.

PubMed

1994-06-01

New federal regulations seeking to prevent tubercular infection of health care workers have created conflicts between unions and hospital administrators over the best and cheapest methods of reducing the threat. Though there has been dispute over the particulars, there has been little argument that some steps must be taken, particularly in urban areas, to control the spread of a disease that has rebounded in new and deadly forms in recent years. Most agree that one of the most effective ways to avoid infection is to train employees to identify new hospital arrivals who are likely to have active cases of TB.

Merchant ships discharging unwanted marine species in close proximity of a French aquaculture area: risks involved.

PubMed

Masson, Daniel; Thomas, Gerard; Genauzeau, Sylvie; Le Moine, Olivier; Derrien, Annick

2013-12-15

The most important oyster farming area in Europe is in a close proximity of two medium size merchant ports. Cargo ships deballast in this area before loading, releasing unwanted or noxious marine species. During a sampling campaign aboard these arriving ships, we found in some ballast water samples a huge number of potentially toxic dinoflagellates and some potentially pathogenic bacteria. A model was applied to find the potential geographical spread of the discharged ballast water. This model predicts the water to reach highly vulnerable shellfish farmed areas in six to eight days. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Medication errors versus time of admission in a subpopulation of stroke patients undergoing inpatient rehabilitation complications and considerations.

PubMed

Pitts, Eric P

2011-01-01

This study looked at the medication ordering error frequency and the length of inpatient hospital stay in a subpopulation of stroke patients (n-60) as a function of time of patient admission to an inpatient rehabilitation hospital service. A total of 60 inpatient rehabilitation patients, 30 arriving before 4 pm, and 30 arriving after 4 pm, with as admitting diagnosis of stroke were randomly selected from a larger sample (N=426). There was a statistically significant increase in medication ordering errors and the number of inpatient rehabilitation hospital days in the group of patients who arrived after 4 pm.

Rise Time of the Simulated VERITAS 12 m Davies-Cotton Reflector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Richard J.

The Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS) will utilise Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs) based on a Davies-Cotton design with f-number f/1.0 to detect cosmic gamma-rays. Unlike a parabolic reflector, light from the Davies-Cotton does not arrive isochronously at the camera. Here the effect of the telescope geometry on signal rise-time is examined. An almost square-pulse arrival time profile with a rise time of 1.7 ns is found analytically and confirmed through simulation.

Then and Now: Comparing the Flow of Foreign Fighters to AQI and the Islamic State

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

State during separate blocks of time . Second, it provides insight into the local travel and flow of foreign fighters across time , and the mobilization...who joined the Islamic State during that latter time period also traveled alone more frequently. When they didn’t travel alone, they arrived in...arriving at the caliphate are larger than they were during the time period covered by the Sinjar records. A couple of cases of group travel to Syria

Techniques for measuring arrival times of pulsar signals 1: DSN observations from 1968 to 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Downs, G. S.; Reichley, P. E.

1980-01-01

Techniques used in the ground based observations of pulsars are described, many of them applicable in a navigation scheme. The arrival times of the pulses intercepting Earth are measured at time intervals from a few days to a few months. Low noise, wide band receivers, amplify signals intercepted by 26 m, 34, and 64 m antennas. Digital recordings of total received signal power versus time are cross correlated with the appropriate pulse template.

Effectiveness of a multidisciplinary critical pathway based on a computerised physician order entry system for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction management in the emergency department: a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Park, Yoo Seok; Chung, Sung Phil; You, Je Sung; Kim, Min Joung; Chung, Hyun Soo; Hong, Jung Hwa; Lee, Hye Sun; Wang, Jinwon; Park, Incheol

2016-08-16

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a multidisciplinary organised critical pathway (CP) for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) management can significantly attenuate differences in the duration from emergency department (ED) arrival to evaluation and treatment, regardless of the arrival time, by eliminating off-hour and weekend effects. Retrospective observational cohort study. 2 tertiary academic hospitals. Consecutive patients in the Fast Interrogation Rule for STEMI (FIRST) program. A study was conducted on patients in the FIRST program, which uses a computerised physician order entry (CPOE) system. The patient demographics, time intervals and clinical outcomes were analysed based on the arrival time at the ED: group 1, normal working hours on weekdays; group 2, off-hours on weekdays; group 3, normal working hours on weekends; and group 4, off-hours on weekends. Clinical outcomes categorised according to 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality and the length of stay. The duration from door-to-data or FIRST activation did not differ significantly among the 4 groups. The median duration between arrival and balloon placement during percutaneous coronary intervention did not significantly exceed 90 min, and the proportions (89.6-95.1%) of patients with door-to-balloon times within 90 min did not significantly differ among the 4 groups, regardless of the ED arrival time (p=0.147). Moreover, no differences in the 30-day (p=0.8173) and in-hospital mortality (p=0.9107) were observed in patients with STEMI. A multidisciplinary CP for STEMI based on a CPOE system can effectively decrease disparities in the door-to-data duration and proportions of patients with door-to-balloon times within 90 min, regardless of the ED arrival time. The application of a multidisciplinary CP may also help attenuate off-hour and weekend effects in STEMI clinical outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Performance of BEBE-prototype: A BEam-BEam counter prototype for the MPD-NICA experiment at JINR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Cristian Heber Zepeda

2018-01-01

In this work we show the arrival time resolution for the Beam Monitoring Detector (BMD). We made the study for Au+Au collision at √s = 8 Gev and a smearing of σ = 300 cm. The arrival time resolution we found is Δσ = 57.982 ± 0.509 ps. We show preliminary results of the time resolution for a cell of the BMD.

AIMBAT: A Python/Matplotlib Tool for Measuring Teleseismic Arrival Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, X.; van der Lee, S.; Lloyd, S.

2013-12-01

Python is an open-source, platform-independent, and object-oriented scripting language. It became more popular in the seismologist community since the appearance of ObsPy (Beyreuther et al. 2010, Megies et al. 2011), which provides a powerful framework for seismic data access and processing. This study introduces a new Python-based tool named AIMBAT (Automated and Interactive Measurement of Body-wave Arrival Times) for measuring teleseismic body-wave arrival times on large-scale seismic event data (Lou et al. 2013). Compared to ObsPy, AIMBAT is a lighter tool that is more focused on a particular aspect of seismic data processing. It originates from the widely used MCCC (Multi-Channel Cross-Correlation) method developed by VanDecar and Crosson (1990). On top of the original MCCC procedure, AIMBAT is automated in initial phase picking and is interactive in quality control. The core cross-correlation function is implemented in Fortran to boost up performance in addition to Python. The GUI (graphical user interface) of AIMBAT depends on Matplotlib's GUI-neutral widgets and event-handling API. A number of sorting and (de)selecting options are designed to facilitate the quality control of seismograms. By using AIMBAT, both relative and absolute teleseismic body-wave arrival times are measured. AIMBAT significantly improves efficiency and quality of the measurements. User interaction is needed only to pick the target phase arrival and to set a time window on the array stack. The package is easy to install and use, open-source, and is publicly available. Graphical user interface of AIMBAT.

IMPROVED GROUND TRUTH IN SOUTHERN ASIA USING IN-COUNTRY DATA, ANALYST WAVEFORM REVIEW, AND ADVANCED ALGORITHMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engdahl, Eric, R.; Bergman, Eric, A.; Myers, Stephen, C.

A new catalog of seismicity at magnitudes above 2.5 for the period 1923-2008 in the Iran region is assembled from arrival times reported by global, regional, and local seismic networks. Using in-country data we have formed new events, mostly at lower magnitudes that were not previously included in standard global earthquake catalogs. The magnitude completeness of the catalog varies strongly through time, complete to about magnitude 4.2 prior to 1998 and reaching a minimum of about 3.6 during the period 1998-2005. Of the 25,722 events in the catalog, most of the larger events have been carefully reviewed for proper phasemore » association, especially for depth phases and to eliminate outlier readings, and relocated. To better understand the quality of the data set of arrival times reported by Iranian networks that are central to this study, many waveforms for events in Iran have been re-picked by an experienced seismic analyst. Waveforms at regional distances in this region are often complex. For many events this makes arrival time picks difficult to make, especially for smaller magnitude events, resulting in reported times that can be substantially improved by an experienced analyst. Even when the signal/noise ratio is large, re-picking can lead to significant differences. Picks made by our analyst are compared with original picks made by the regional networks. In spite of the obvious outliers, the median (-0.06 s) and spread (0.51 s) are small, suggesting that reasonable confidence can be placed in the picks reported by regional networks in Iran. This new catalog has been used to assess focal depth distributions throughout Iran. A principal result of this study is that the geographic pattern of depth distributions revealed by the relatively small number of earthquakes (~167) with depths constrained by waveform modeling (+/- 4 km) are now in agreement with the much larger number of depths (~1229) determined using reanalysis of ISC arrival-times (+/-10 km), within their respective errors. This is a significant advance, as outliers and future events with apparently anomalous depths can be readily identified and, if necessary, further investigated. The patterns of reliable focal depth distributions have been interpreted in the context of Middle Eastern active tectonics. Most earthquakes in the Iranian continental lithosphere occur in the upper crust, less than about 25-30 km in depth, with the crustal shortening produced by continental collision apparently accommodated entirely by thickening and distributed deformation rather than by subduction of crust into the mantle. However, intermediate-depth earthquakes associated with subducted slab do occur across the central Caspian Sea and beneath the Makran coast. A multiple-event relocation technique, specialized to use different kinds of near-source data, is used to calibrate the locations of 24 clusters containing 901 events drawn from the seismicity catalog. The absolute locations of these clusters are fixed either by comparing the pattern of relocated earthquakes with mapped fault geometry, by using one or more cluster events that have been accurately located independently by a local seismic network or aftershock deployment, by using InSAR data to determine the rupture zone of shallow earthquakes, or by some combination of these near-source data. This technique removes most of the systematic bias in single-event locations done with regional and teleseismic data, resulting in 624 calibrated events with location uncertainties of 5 km or better at the 90% confidence level (GT590). For 21 clusters (847 events) that are calibrated in both location and origin time we calculate empirical travel times, relative to a standard 1-D travel time model (ak135), and investigate event to station travel-time anomalies as functions of epicentral distance and azimuth. Substantial travel-time anomalies are seen in the Iran region which make accurate locations impossible unless observing stations are at very short distances (less than about 200 km) or travel-time models are improved to account for lateral heterogeneity in the region. Earthquake locations in the Iran region by international agencies, based on regional and teleseismic arrival time data, are systematically biased to the southwest and have a 90% location accuracy of 18-23 km, with the lower value achievable by applying limits on secondary azimuth gap. The data set of calibrated locations reported here provides an important constraint on travel-time models that would begin to account for the lateral heterogeneity in Earth structure in the Iran region, and permit seismic networks, especially the regional ones, to obtain in future more accurate locations of the earthquakes in the region.« less

Observation of a large-scale anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above 8 × 10 18 eV

DOE PAGES

Aab, Alexander; et al.

2017-09-22

We report that cosmic rays are atomic nuclei arriving from outer space that reach the highest energies observed in nature. Clues to their origin come from studying the distribution of their arrival directions. Usingmore » $$3 \\times 10^4$$ cosmic rays above $$8 \\times 10^{18}$$ electron volts, recorded with the Pierre Auger Observatory from a total exposure of 76,800 square kilometers steradian year, we report an anisotropy in the arrival directions. The anisotropy, detected at more than the 5.2$$\\sigma$$ level of significance, can be described by a dipole with an amplitude of $$6.5_{-0.9}^{+1.3}$$% towards right ascension $$\\alpha_{d} = 100 \\pm 10$$ degrees and declination $$\\delta_{d} = -24_{-13}^{+12}$$ degrees. Lastly, that direction indicates an extragalactic origin for these ultra-high energy particles.« less

Observation of a large-scale anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above 8 × 10 18 eV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aab, Alexander; et al.

We report that cosmic rays are atomic nuclei arriving from outer space that reach the highest energies observed in nature. Clues to their origin come from studying the distribution of their arrival directions. Usingmore » $$3 \\times 10^4$$ cosmic rays above $$8 \\times 10^{18}$$ electron volts, recorded with the Pierre Auger Observatory from a total exposure of 76,800 square kilometers steradian year, we report an anisotropy in the arrival directions. The anisotropy, detected at more than the 5.2$$\\sigma$$ level of significance, can be described by a dipole with an amplitude of $$6.5_{-0.9}^{+1.3}$$% towards right ascension $$\\alpha_{d} = 100 \\pm 10$$ degrees and declination $$\\delta_{d} = -24_{-13}^{+12}$$ degrees. Lastly, that direction indicates an extragalactic origin for these ultra-high energy particles.« less

CME Arrival-time Validation of Real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations at the CCMC/SWRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Jian, L.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.

2016-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations worldwide to model CME propagation, as such it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). The SWRC is a CCMC sub-team that provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns, and also prototypes new forecasting models and techniques. CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME shock observations near Earth (ACE, Wind), STEREO-A and B for simulations completed between March 2010 - July 2016 (over 1500 runs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we compute the bias, RMSE, and average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of these errors on CME input parameters. We compare the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (Kp index) to the CME arrival time error for Earth-directed CMEs. The predicted Kp index is computed using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone plasma parameters at Earth with a modified Newell et al. (2007) coupling function. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations on the CME parameters used initialize the model by comparing model validation results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). This model validation exercise has significance for future space weather mission planning such as L5 missions.

Locating single-point sources from arrival times containing large picking errors (LPEs): the virtual field optimization method (VFOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xi-Bing; Wang, Ze-Wei; Dong, Long-Jun

2016-01-01

Microseismic monitoring systems using local location techniques tend to be timely, automatic and stable. One basic requirement of these systems is the automatic picking of arrival times. However, arrival times generated by automated techniques always contain large picking errors (LPEs), which may make the location solution unreliable and cause the integrated system to be unstable. To overcome the LPE issue, we propose the virtual field optimization method (VFOM) for locating single-point sources. In contrast to existing approaches, the VFOM optimizes a continuous and virtually established objective function to search the space for the common intersection of the hyperboloids, which is determined by sensor pairs other than the least residual between the model-calculated and measured arrivals. The results of numerical examples and in-site blasts show that the VFOM can obtain more precise and stable solutions than traditional methods when the input data contain LPEs. Furthermore, we discuss the impact of LPEs on objective functions to determine the LPE-tolerant mechanism, velocity sensitivity and stopping criteria of the VFOM. The proposed method is also capable of locating acoustic sources using passive techniques such as passive sonar detection and acoustic emission.

Complex analysis of neuronal spike trains of deep brain nuclei in patients with Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Chan, Hsiao-Lung; Lin, Ming-An; Lee, Shih-Tseng; Tsai, Yu-Tai; Chao, Pei-Kuang; Wu, Tony

2010-04-05

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) has been used to alleviate symptoms of Parkinson's disease. During image-guided stereotactic surgery, signals from microelectrode recordings are used to distinguish the STN from adjacent areas, particularly from the substantia nigra pars reticulata (SNr). Neuronal firing patterns based on interspike intervals (ISI) are commonly used. In the present study, arrival time-based measures, including Lempel-Ziv complexity and deviation-from-Poisson index were employed. Our results revealed significant differences in the arrival time-based measures among non-motor STN, motor STN and SNr and better discrimination than the ISI-based measures. The larger deviations from the Poisson process in the SNr implied less complex dynamics of neuronal discharges. If spike classification was not used, the arrival time-based measures still produced statistical differences among STN subdivisions and SNr, but the ISI-based measures only showed significant differences between motor and non-motor STN. Arrival time-based measures are less affected by spike misclassifications, and may be used as an adjunct for the identification of the STN during microelectrode targeting. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

February precipitation in the wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca: is it a cue for migration onset?

PubMed

Aloni, Irith; Markman, Shai; Ziv, Yaron

2017-02-01

Numerous studies report shifts in bird migration phenology, presumably owing to global warming. However, most studies focus on migration patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigated associations between weather conditions in African wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca, and spring arrival time in Eilat, Israel. Using multivariate regression models, we analysed a 30-year dataset in order to examine correlations between median springtime arrival and 46 climate variables of the wintering quarters. The model obtained exhibited a highly statistical fit, involving mean precipitation in February and March with negative effects and number of wet days during November-February. February precipitation levels were also the major factor associated with the interquartile range of arrival time. Interestingly and contrary to published results, annual or seasonal precipitation showed no correlation with spring arrival time, nor did temperature. Moreover, winter in this region falls into dry season with negligible rainfall quantities. Hence, it is unlikely that precipitation effect on habitat productivity is a driving force of migration, as suggested by other studies. Instead, we propose that precipitation in February acts as a cue for the birds, indicating the approach of spring and migration time.

Discordance between 'actual' and 'scheduled' check-in times at a heart failure clinic

PubMed Central

Joyce, Emer; Gandesbery, Benjamin T.; Blackstone, Eugene H.; Taylor, David O.; Tang, W. H. Wilson; Starling, Randall C.; Hachamovitch, Rory

2017-01-01

Introduction A 2015 Institute Of Medicine statement “Transforming Health Care Scheduling and Access: Getting to Now”, has increased concerns regarding patient wait times. Although waiting times have been widely studied, little attention has been paid to the role of patient arrival times as a component of this phenomenon. To this end, we investigated patterns of patient arrival at scheduled ambulatory heart failure (HF) clinic appointments and studied its predictors. We hypothesized that patients are more likely to arrive later than scheduled, with progressively later arrivals later in the day. Methods and results Using a business intelligence database we identified 6,194 unique patients that visited the Cleveland Clinic Main Campus HF clinic between January, 2015 and January, 2017. This clinic served both as a tertiary referral center and a community HF clinic. Transplant and left ventricular assist device (LVAD) visits were excluded. Punctuality was defined as the difference between ‘actual’ and ‘scheduled’ check-in times, whereby negative values (i.e., early punctuality) were patients who checked-in early. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found that patients checked-in late only a minority of the time (38% of visits). Additionally, examining punctuality by appointment hour slot we found that patients scheduled after 8AM had progressively earlier check-in times as the day progressed (P < .001 for trend). In both a Random Forest-Regression framework and linear regression models the most important risk-adjusted predictors of early punctuality were: later in the day appointment hour slot, patient having previously been to the hospital, age in the early 70s, and white race. Conclusions Patients attending a mixed population ambulatory HF clinic check-in earlier than scheduled times, with progressive discrepant intervals throughout the day. This finding may have significant implications for provider utilization and resource planning in order to maximize clinic efficiency. The impact of elective early arrival on patient’s perceived wait times requires further study. PMID:29136649

Discordance between 'actual' and 'scheduled' check-in times at a heart failure clinic.

PubMed

Gorodeski, Eiran Z; Joyce, Emer; Gandesbery, Benjamin T; Blackstone, Eugene H; Taylor, David O; Tang, W H Wilson; Starling, Randall C; Hachamovitch, Rory

2017-01-01

A 2015 Institute Of Medicine statement "Transforming Health Care Scheduling and Access: Getting to Now", has increased concerns regarding patient wait times. Although waiting times have been widely studied, little attention has been paid to the role of patient arrival times as a component of this phenomenon. To this end, we investigated patterns of patient arrival at scheduled ambulatory heart failure (HF) clinic appointments and studied its predictors. We hypothesized that patients are more likely to arrive later than scheduled, with progressively later arrivals later in the day. Using a business intelligence database we identified 6,194 unique patients that visited the Cleveland Clinic Main Campus HF clinic between January, 2015 and January, 2017. This clinic served both as a tertiary referral center and a community HF clinic. Transplant and left ventricular assist device (LVAD) visits were excluded. Punctuality was defined as the difference between 'actual' and 'scheduled' check-in times, whereby negative values (i.e., early punctuality) were patients who checked-in early. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found that patients checked-in late only a minority of the time (38% of visits). Additionally, examining punctuality by appointment hour slot we found that patients scheduled after 8AM had progressively earlier check-in times as the day progressed (P < .001 for trend). In both a Random Forest-Regression framework and linear regression models the most important risk-adjusted predictors of early punctuality were: later in the day appointment hour slot, patient having previously been to the hospital, age in the early 70s, and white race. Patients attending a mixed population ambulatory HF clinic check-in earlier than scheduled times, with progressive discrepant intervals throughout the day. This finding may have significant implications for provider utilization and resource planning in order to maximize clinic efficiency. The impact of elective early arrival on patient's perceived wait times requires further study.

Efficiency and Safety: The Best Time to Valve a Plaster Cast.

PubMed

Steiner, Samuel R H; Gendi, Kirollos; Halanski, Matthew A; Noonan, Kenneth J

2018-04-18

The act of applying, univalving, and spreading a plaster cast to accommodate swelling is commonly performed; however, cast saws can cause thermal and/or abrasive injury to the patient. This study aims to identify the optimal time to valve a plaster cast so as to reduce the risk of cast-saw injury and increase spreading efficiency. Plaster casts were applied to life-sized pediatric models and were univalved at set-times of 5, 8, 12, or 25 minutes. Outcome measures included average and maximum force applied during univalving, blade-to-skin touches, cut time, force needed to spread, number of spread attempts, spread completeness, spread distance, saw blade temperature, and skin surface temperature. Casts allowed to set for ≥12 minutes had significantly fewer blade-to-skin touches compared with casts that set for <12 minutes (p < 0.001). For average and maximum saw blade force, no significant difference was observed between individual set-times. However, in a comparison of the shorter group (<12 minutes) and the longer group (≥12 minutes), the longer group had a higher average force (p = 0.009) but a lower maximum force (p = 0.036). The average temperature of the saw blade did not vary between groups. The maximum force needed to "pop," or spread, the cast was greater for the 5-minute and 8-minute set-times. Despite requiring more force to spread the cast, 0% of attempts at 5 minutes and 54% of attempts at 8 minutes were successful in completely spreading the cast, whereas 100% of attempts at 12 and 25 minutes were successful. The spread distance was greatest for the 12-minute set-time at 5.7 mm. Allowing casts to set for 12 minutes is associated with decreased blade-to-skin contact, less maximum force used with the saw blade, and a more effective spread. Adherence to the 12-minute interval could allow for fewer cast-saw injuries and more effective spreading.

An Analysis of the Relationship Between the Heat Index and Arrivals in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Levy, Matthew; Broccoli, Morgan; Cole, Gai; Jenkins, J Lee; Klein, Eili Y.

2015-01-01

Background: Heatwaves are one of the most deadly weather-related events in the United States and account for more deaths annually than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined. However, there are few statistically rigorous studies of the effect of heatwaves on emergency department (ED) arrivals. A better understanding of this relationship can help hospitals plan better and provide better care for patients during these types of events. Methods: A retrospective review of all ED patient arrivals that occurred from April 15 through August 15 for the years 2008 through 2013 was performed. Daily patient arrival data were combined with weather data (temperature and humidity) to examine the potential relationships between the heat index and ED arrivals as well as the length of time patients spend in the ED using generalized additive models. In particular the effect the 2012 heat wave that swept across the United States, and which was hypothesized to increase arrivals was examined. Results: While there was no relationship found between the heat index and arrivals on a single day, a non-linear relationship was found between the mean three-day heat index and the number of daily arrivals. As the mean three-day heat index initially increased, the number of arrivals significantly declined. However, as the heat index continued to increase, the number of arrivals increased. It was estimated that there was approximately a 2% increase in arrivals when the mean heat index for three days approached 100°F. This relationship was strongest for adults aged 18-64, as well as for patients arriving with lower acuity. Additionally, a positive relationship was noted between the mean three-day heat index and the length of stay (LOS) for patients in the ED, but no relationship was found for the time from which a patient was first seen to when a disposition decision was made. No significant relationship was found for the effect of the 2012 heat wave on ED arrivals, though it did have an effect on patient LOS. Conclusion: A single hot day has only a limited effect on ED arrivals, but continued hot weather has a cumulative effect. When the heat index is high (~90°F) for a number of days in a row, this curtails peoples activities, but if the heat index is very hot (~100°F) this likely results in an exacerbation of underlying conditions as well as heat-related events that drives an increase in ED arrivals. Periods of high heat also affects the length of stay of patients either by complicating care or by making it more difficult to discharge patients. PMID:26579329

Piloted simulation of a ground-based time-control concept for air traffic control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Thomas J.; Green, Steven M.

1989-01-01

A concept for aiding air traffic controllers in efficiently spacing traffic and meeting scheduled arrival times at a metering fix was developed and tested in a real time simulation. The automation aid, referred to as the ground based 4-D descent advisor (DA), is based on accurate models of aircraft performance and weather conditions. The DA generates suggested clearances, including both top-of-descent-point and speed-profile data, for one or more aircraft in order to achieve specific time or distance separation objectives. The DA algorithm is used by the air traffic controller to resolve conflicts and issue advisories to arrival aircraft. A joint simulation was conducted using a piloted simulator and an advanced concept air traffic control simulation to study the acceptability and accuracy of the DA automation aid from both the pilot's and the air traffic controller's perspectives. The results of the piloted simulation are examined. In the piloted simulation, airline crews executed controller issued descent advisories along standard curved path arrival routes, and were able to achieve an arrival time precision of + or - 20 sec at the metering fix. An analysis of errors generated in turns resulted in further enhancements of the algorithm to improve the predictive accuracy. Evaluations by pilots indicate general support for the concept and provide specific recommendations for improvement.

Testing model for prediction system of 1-AU arrival times of CME-associated interplanetary shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Tomoya; den, Mitsue; Tanaka, Takashi; Sugihara, Kohta; Takei, Toshifumi; Amo, Hiroyoshi; Watari, Shinichi

We test a model to predict arrival times of interplanetary shock waves associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using a three-dimensional adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) code. The model is used for the prediction system we develop, which has a Web-based user interface and aims at people who is not familiar with operation of computers and numerical simulations or is not researcher. We apply the model to interplanetary CME events. We first choose coronal parameters so that property of background solar wind observed by ACE space craft is reproduced. Then we input CME parameters observed by SOHO/LASCO. Finally we compare the predicted arrival times with observed ones. We describe results of the test and discuss tendency of the model.

Search for tachyons associated with extensive air showers in the ground level cosmic radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masjed, H. F.; Ashton, F.

1985-01-01

Events detected in a shielded plastic scintillation counter occurring in the 26 microsec preceding the arrival of an extensive air shower at ground level with local electron density or = 20 m to the -2 power and the 240 microsec after its arrival have been studied. No significant excess of events (tachyons) arriving in the early time domain have been observed in a sample of 11,585 air shower triggers.

Analysis of sequencing and scheduling methods for arrival traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neuman, Frank; Erzberger, Heinz

1990-01-01

The air traffic control subsystem that performs scheduling is discussed. The function of the scheduling algorithms is to plan automatically the most efficient landing order and to assign optimally spaced landing times to all arrivals. Several important scheduling algorithms are described and the statistical performance of the scheduling algorithms is examined. Scheduling brings order to an arrival sequence for aircraft. First-come-first-served scheduling (FCFS) establishes a fair order, based on estimated times of arrival, and determines proper separations. Because of the randomness of the traffic, gaps will remain in the scheduled sequence of aircraft. These gaps are filled, or partially filled, by time-advancing the leading aircraft after a gap while still preserving the FCFS order. Tightly scheduled groups of aircraft remain with a mix of heavy and large aircraft. Separation requirements differ for different types of aircraft trailing each other. Advantage is taken of this fact through mild reordering of the traffic, thus shortening the groups and reducing average delays. Actual delays for different samples with the same statistical parameters vary widely, especially for heavy traffic.

Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas; Mercer, Joey; Martin, Lynne; Bienert, Nancy; Cabrall, Christopher; Hunt, Sarah; Homola, Jeffrey; Kraut, Joshua

2013-01-01

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

History of Hubble Space Telescope (HST)

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-12-01

This series of photos, captured by the NASA Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) Advanced Camera for Surveys from May to December 2002, dramatically demonstrates the reverberation of light through space caused by an unusual stellar outburst in January 2002. A burst of light from the bizarre star is spreading into space and reflecting off of surrounding circumstellar dust. As different parts are sequentially illuminated, the appearance of the dust changes. This effect is referred to as a "light echo". The red star at the center of the eyeball like feature is the unusual erupting super giant called V838 Monocerotis, or V Mon, located about 20,000 light-years away in the winter constellation Monoceros (the Unicorn). During its outburst, the star brightened to more than 600,000 times our Sun's luminosity. The circular feature has now expanded to slightly larger than the angular size of Jupiter on the sky, and will continue to expand for several more years until the light from the back side of the nebula begins to arrive. The light echo will then give the illusion of contracting, until it finally disappears by the end of the decade.

Light Echo From Star V838 Monocerotis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This series of photos, captured by the NASA Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) Advanced Camera for Surveys from May to December 2002, dramatically demonstrates the reverberation of light through space caused by an unusual stellar outburst in January 2002. A burst of light from the bizarre star is spreading into space and reflecting off of surrounding circumstellar dust. As different parts are sequentially illuminated, the appearance of the dust changes. This effect is referred to as a 'light echo'. The red star at the center of the eyeball like feature is the unusual erupting super giant called V838 Monocerotis, or V Mon, located about 20,000 light-years away in the winter constellation Monoceros (the Unicorn). During its outburst, the star brightened to more than 600,000 times our Sun's luminosity. The circular feature has now expanded to slightly larger than the angular size of Jupiter on the sky, and will continue to expand for several more years until the light from the back side of the nebula begins to arrive. The light echo will then give the illusion of contracting, until it finally disappears by the end of the decade.

Ambrosia Beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) Species, Flight, and Attack on Living Eastern Cottonwood Trees.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coyle, D R; D.C. Booth: M.S. Wallace

2005-12-01

ABSTRACT In spring 2002, ambrosia beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) infested an intensively managed 22-ha tree plantation on the upper coastal plain of South Carolina. Nearly 3,500 scolytids representing 28 species were captured in ethanol-baited traps from 18 June 2002 to 18 April 2004. More than 88% of total captures were exotic species. Five species [Dryoxylon onoharaensum (Murayama), Euwallacea validus (Eichhoff), Pseudopityophthorus minutissimus (Zimmermann), Xyleborus atratus Eichhoff, and Xyleborus impressus Eichhoff]) were collected in South Carolina for the first time. Of four tree species in the plantation, eastern cottonwood, Populus deltoides Bartram, was the only one attacked, with nearly 40% of themore » trees sustaining ambrosia beetle damage. Clone ST66 sustained more damage than clone S7C15. ST66 trees receiving fertilization were attacked more frequently than trees receiving irrigation, irrigation_fertilization, or controls, although the number of S7C15 trees attacked did not differ among treatments. The study location is near major shipping ports; our results demonstrate the necessity for intensive monitoring programs to determine the arrival, spread, ecology, and impact of exotic scolytids.« less

Sexual behaviour among casual workers in an international nightlife resort: a case control study

PubMed Central

Hughes, Karen; Bellis, Mark A

2006-01-01

Background Young holidaymakers report increased sexual risk-taking abroad, yet little is currently known about the sexual behaviour of those who extend time abroad through casual work. Methods Information on sexual behaviour was collected via an anonymous questionnaire administered to British bar and nightclub workers in Ibiza (cases, n = 92) and British people visiting Ibiza for holiday purposes only (controls, n = 868). Results Four in five (80.5%) cases who arrived in Ibiza without a partner had sex during their stay and of these two thirds (65.5%) had unprotected sex. Cases were more likely to report sexual risk-taking in Ibiza than controls and reported greater numbers of sexual partners prior to their visit. However, they had fewer sexual partners per week of stay. Conclusion Casual workers in bars and nightclubs abroad are a key risk group for sexual health and a potential conduit for the international spread of sexually transmitted infections. While they are an important target group for sexual health promotion, appropriately trained they are also ideally placed to deliver sexual health interventions to other young travellers. PMID:16504040

Paradigms and Paradoxes: Dawn at Vesta

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raymond, C. A.; Russell, C. T.; Mittlefehldt, D. W.

2014-01-01

While confirming the popular paradigm of Vesta as the parent body of the HED meteorites, Dawn measurements have discovered many unexpected aspects of the vestan surface. First, an olivine layer was not found in the bottom of the large basin near the south pole of Vesta. In fact, while patches of olivine have been found in the north, it is rare on the surface. Secondly, while Vesta has little gravity and appears to have completely differentiated, it is not completely dry evidence for transient flows and pits resulting from devolatization have been found, implying a substantial amount of accessible water. Thirdly, transport of material to the surface of Vesta from elsewhere in the asteroid belt appears as dark material buried near the top of the crust to Vesta. This may have arrived in a single large impact and been spread around the surface and buried, later to be re-excavated. However, it is not certain that this is the only scenario possible for the source of this material. In short, Dawn's observations of Vesta have been both reassuring but unsettling at the same time.

Stochastic sediment property inversion in Shallow Water 06.

PubMed

Michalopoulou, Zoi-Heleni

2017-11-01

Received time-series at a short distance from the source allow the identification of distinct paths; four of these are direct, surface and bottom reflections, and sediment reflection. In this work, a Gibbs sampling method is used for the estimation of the arrival times of these paths and the corresponding probability density functions. The arrival times for the first three paths are then employed along with linearization for the estimation of source range and depth, water column depth, and sound speed in the water. Propagating densities of arrival times through the linearized inverse problem, densities are also obtained for the above parameters, providing maximum a posteriori estimates. These estimates are employed to calculate densities and point estimates of sediment sound speed and thickness using a non-linear, grid-based model. Density computation is an important aspect of this work, because those densities express the uncertainty in the inversion for sediment properties.

Studies on the formation, temporal evolution and forensic applications of camera "fingerprints".

PubMed

Kuppuswamy, R

2006-06-02

A series of experiments was conducted by exposing negative film in brand new cameras of different make and model. The exposures were repeated at regular time intervals spread over a period of 2 years. The processed film negatives were studied under a stereomicroscope (10-40x) in transmitted illumination for the presence of the characterizing features on their four frame-edges. These features were then related to those present on the masking frame of the cameras by examining the latter in reflected light stereomicroscopy (10-40x). The purpose of the study was to determine the origin and permanence of the frame-edge-marks, and also the processes by which the marks may probably alter with time. The investigations have arrived at the following conclusions: (i) the edge-marks have originated principally from the imperfections received on the film mask from the manufacturing and also occasionally from the accumulated dirt, dust and fiber on the film mask over an extended time period. (ii) The edge profiles of the cameras have remained fixed over a considerable period of time so as to be of a valuable identification medium. (iii) The marks are found to be varying in nature even with those cameras manufactured at similar time. (iv) The influence of f/number and object distance has great effect in the recording of the frame-edge marks during exposure of the film. The above findings would serve as a useful addition to the technique of camera edge-mark comparisons.

Real-time forecasting of ICME shock arrivals at L1 during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch: 28 March  21 April 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, W.; Dryer, M.; Fry, C. D.; Deehr, C. S.; Smith, Z.; Akasofu, S.-I.; Kartalev, M. D.; Grigorov, K. G.

2002-07-01

The Sun was extremely active during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch of 2001. We chose this period between a solar flare on 28 March 2001 to a final shock arrival at Earth on 21 April 2001. The activity consisted of two presumed helmet-streamer blowouts, seven M-class flares, and nine X-class flares, the last of which was behind the west limb. We have been experimenting since February 1997 with real-time, end-to-end forecasting of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) shock arrival times. Since August 1998, these forecasts have been distributed in real-time by e-mail to a list of interested scientists and operational USAF and NOAA forecasters. They are made using three different solar wind models. We describe here the solar events observed during the April Fool’s 2001 epoch, along with the predicted and actual shock arrival times, and the ex post facto correction to the real-time coronal shock speed observations. It appears that the initial estimates of coronal shock speeds from Type II radio burst observations and coronal mass ejections were too high by as much as 30%. We conclude that a 3-dimensional coronal density model should be developed for application to observations of solar flares and their Type II radio burst observations.

Signal Quality and the Reliability of Seismic Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeiler, C. P.; Velasco, A. A.; Pingitore, N. E.

2009-12-01

The ability to detect, time and measure seismic phases depends on the location, size, and quality of the recorded signals. Additional constraints are an analyst’s familiarity with a seismogenic zone and with the seismic stations that record the energy. Quantification and qualification of an analyst’s ability to detect, time and measure seismic signals has not been calculated or fully assessed. The fundamental measurement for computing the accuracy of a seismic measurement is the signal quality. Several methods have been proposed to measure signal quality; however, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) has been adopted as a short-term average over the long-term average. While the standard SNR is an easy and computationally inexpensive term, the overall statistical significance has not been computed for seismic measurement analysis. The prospect of canonizing the process of cataloging seismic arrivals hinges on the ability to repeat measurements made by different methods and analysts. The first step in canonizing phase measurements has been done by the IASPEI, which established a reference for accepted practices in naming seismic phases. The New Manual for Seismological Observatory Practices (NMSOP, 2002) outlines key observations for seismic phases recorded at different distances and proposes to quantify timing uncertainty with a user-specified windowing technique. However, this added measurement would not completely remove bias introduced by different techniques used by analysts to time seismic arrivals. The general guideline to time a seismic arrival is to record the time where a noted change in frequency and/or amplitude begins. This is generally achieved by enhancing the arrivals through filtering or beam forming. However, these enhancements can alter the characteristics of the arrival and how the arrival will be measured. Furthermore, each enhancement has user-specified parameters that can vary between analysts and this results in reduced ability to repeat measurements between analysts. The SPEAR project (Zeiler and Velasco, 2009) has started to explore the effects of comparing measurements from the same seismograms. Initial results showed that experience and the signal quality are the leading contributors to pick differences. However, the traditional SNR method of measuring signal quality was replaced by a Wide-band Spectral Ratio (WSR) due to a decrease in scatter. This observation brings up an important question of what is the best way to measure signal quality. We compare various methods (traditional SNR, WSR, power spectral density plots, Allan Variance) that have been proposed to measure signal quality and discuss which method provides the best tool to compare arrival time uncertainty.

Early Identification and Prevention of the Spread of Ebola - United States.

PubMed

Van Beneden, Chris A; Pietz, Harald; Kirkcaldy, Robert D; Koonin, Lisa M; Uyeki, Timothy M; Oster, Alexandra M; Levy, Deborah A; Glover, Maleeka; Arduino, Matthew J; Merlin, Toby L; Kuhar, David T; Kosmos, Christine; Bell, Beth P

2016-07-08

In response to the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic in West Africa, CDC prepared for the potential introduction of Ebola into the United States. The immediate goals were to rapidly identify and isolate any cases of Ebola, prevent transmission, and promote timely treatment of affected patients. CDC's technical expertise and the collaboration of multiple partners in state, local, and municipal public health departments; health care facilities; emergency medical services; and U.S. government agencies were essential to the domestic preparedness and response to the Ebola epidemic and relied on longstanding partnerships. CDC established a comprehensive response that included two new strategies: 1) active monitoring of travelers arriving from countries affected by Ebola and other persons at risk for Ebola and 2) a tiered system of hospital facility preparedness that enabled prioritization of training. CDC rapidly deployed a diagnostic assay for Ebola virus (EBOV) to public health laboratories. Guidance was developed to assist in evaluation of patients possibly infected with EBOV, for appropriate infection control, to support emergency responders, and for handling of infectious waste. CDC rapid response teams were formed to provide assistance within 24 hours to a health care facility managing a patient with Ebola. As a result of the collaborations to rapidly identify, isolate, and manage Ebola patients and the extensive preparations to prevent spread of EBOV, the United States is now better prepared to address the next global infectious disease threat.The activities summarized in this report would not have been possible without collaboration with many U.S. and international partners (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/partners.html).

Deep seafloor arrivals in long range ocean acoustic propagation.

PubMed

Stephen, Ralph A; Bolmer, S Thompson; Udovydchenkov, Ilya A; Worcester, Peter F; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Andrew, Rex K; Mercer, James A; Colosi, John A; Howe, Bruce M

2013-10-01

Ocean bottom seismometer observations at 5000 m depth during the long-range ocean acoustic propagation experiment in the North Pacific in 2004 show robust, coherent, late arrivals that are not readily explained by ocean acoustic propagation models. These "deep seafloor" arrivals are the largest amplitude arrivals on the vertical particle velocity channel for ranges from 500 to 3200 km. The travel times for six (of 16 observed) deep seafloor arrivals correspond to the sea surface reflection of an out-of-plane diffraction from a seamount that protrudes to about 4100 m depth and is about 18 km from the receivers. This out-of-plane bottom-diffracted surface-reflected energy is observed on the deep vertical line array about 35 dB below the peak amplitude arrivals and was previously misinterpreted as in-plane bottom-reflected surface-reflected energy. The structure of these arrivals from 500 to 3200 km range is remarkably robust. The bottom-diffracted surface-reflected mechanism provides a means for acoustic signals and noise from distant sources to appear with significant strength on the deep seafloor.

33 CFR 401.79 - Advance notice of arrival, vessels requiring inspection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Notice of Arrival (NOA) prior to entering at call in point 2 (CIP 2) as follows: (1) If your voyage time to CIP 2 is 96 hours or more, you must submit an electronic NOA 96 hours before entering the Seaway at CIP 2. (2) If your voyage time to CIP 2 is less than 96 hours, you must submit an electronic NOA...

33 CFR 401.79 - Advance notice of arrival, vessels requiring inspection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Notice of Arrival (NOA) prior to entering at call in point 2 (CIP 2) as follows: (1) If your voyage time to CIP 2 is 96 hours or more, you must submit an electronic NOA 96 hours before entering the Seaway at CIP 2. (2) If your voyage time to CIP 2 is less than 96 hours, you must submit an electronic NOA...

Real-time Upstream Monitoring System (RUMS): Forecasting arrival times of interplanetary shocks using energetic particle data from ACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, G.; Donegan, M.; Vandegriff, J.; Wagstaff, K.

We have created a system for predicting the arrival times at Earth of interplanetary (IP) shocks that originate at the Sun. This system is currently available on the web (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/index.html) and runs in real-time. Input data to our prediction algorithm is energetic particle data from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Real-time EPAM data is obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center (SEC). Our algorithm operates in two stages. First it watches for a velocity dispersion signature (energetic ions show flux enhancement followed by subsequent enhancements in lower energies), which is commonly seen upstream of a large IP shock. Once a precursor signature has been detected, a pattern recognition algorithm is used to analyze the time series profile of the particle data and generate an estimate for the shock arrival time. Tests on the algorithm show an average error of roughly 9 hours for predictions made 24 hours before the shock arrival and roughly 5 hours when the shock is 12 hours away. This can provide significant lead-time and deliver critical information to mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists. As of February 4, 2004, the ACE real-time stream has been switched to include data from another detector on EPAM. We are now processing the new real-time data stream and have made improvements to our algorithm based on this data. In this paper, we report prediction results from the updated algorithm.

Time of arrival in quantum and Bohmian mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leavens, C. R.

1998-08-01

In a recent paper Grot, Rovelli, and Tate (GRT) [Phys. Rev. A 54, 4676 (1996)] derived an expression for the probability distribution π(TX) of intrinsic arrival times T(X) at position x=X for a quantum particle with initial wave function ψ(x,t=0) freely evolving in one dimension. This was done by quantizing the classical expression for the time of arrival of a free particle at X, assuming a particular choice of operator ordering, and then regulating the resulting time of arrival operator. For the special case of a minimum-uncertainty-product wave packet at t=0 with average wave number and variance Δk they showed that their analytical expression for π(TX) agreed with the probability current density J(x=X,t=T) only to terms of order Δk/. They dismissed the probability current density as a viable candidate for the exact arrival time distribution on the grounds that it can sometimes be negative. This fact is not a problem within Bohmian mechanics where the arrival time distribution for a particle, either free or in the presence of a potential, is rigorously given by \\|J(X,T)\\| (suitably normalized) [W. R. McKinnon and C. R. Leavens, Phys. Rev. A 51, 2748 (1995); C. R. Leavens, Phys. Lett. A 178, 27 (1993); M. Daumer et al., in On Three Levels: The Mathematical Physics of Micro-, Meso-, and Macro-Approaches to Physics, edited by M. Fannes et al. (Plenum, New York, 1994); M. Daumer, in Bohmian Mechanics and Quantum Theory: An Appraisal, edited by J. T. Cushing et al. (Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, 1996)]. The two theories are compared in this paper and a case presented for which the results could not differ more: According to GRT's theory, every particle in the ensemble reaches a point x=X, where ψ(x,t) and J(x,t) are both zero for all t, while no particle ever reaches X according to the theory based on Bohmian mechanics. Some possible implications are discussed.

Seismicity of the Bering Glacier Region: Inferences from Relocations Using Data from STEEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panessa, A. L.; Pavlis, G. L.; Hansen, R. A.; Ruppert, N.

2008-12-01

We relocated earthquakes recorded from 1990 to 2007 in the area of the Bering Glacier in southeastern Alaska to test a hypothesis that faults in this area are linked to glaciers. We used waveform correlation to improve arrival time measurements for data from all broadband channels including all the data from the STEEP experiment. We used a novel form of correlation based on interactive array processing of common receiver gathers linked to a three-dimensional grid of control points. This procedure produced 8556 gathers that we processed interactively to produce improved arrival time estimates. The interactive procedure allowed us to select which events in each gather were sufficiently similar to warrant correlation. Redundancy in the result was resolved in a secondary correlation that aligned event stacks of the same station-event pair associated with multiple control points. This procedure yielded only 2240 waveforms that correlated and modified only a total of 524 arrivals in a total database of 12263 arrivals. The correlation procedure changed arrival times on 145 of 509 events in this database. Events with arrivals constrained by correlation were not clustered but were randomly distributed throughout the study area. We used a version of the Progressive Multiple Event Location (PMEL) that analyzed data at each control point to invert for relative locations and a set of path anomalies for each control point. We applied the PMEL procedure with different velocity models and constraints and compared the results to a HypoDD solution produced from the original arrival time data. The relocations are all significant improvements from the standard single-event, catalog locations. The relocations suggest the seismicity in this region is mostly linked to fold and thrust deformation in the Yakatat block. There is a suggestion of a north-dipping trend to much of the seismicity, but the dominant trend is a fairly diffuse cloud of events largely confined to the Yakatat block south of the Bagley Icefield. This is consistent with the recently published tectonic model by Berger et al. (2008).

Death eaters respond to the dark mark of decomposition day and night: observations of initial insect activity on piglet carcasses.

PubMed

Weidner, Lauren M; Monzon, Michael A; Hamilton, George C

2016-11-01

Some insect taxa can be of critical importance for criminal investigations because they can be used to assist with a time since death determination. Blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) often are the initial colonizers of a carcass, usually arriving within minutes to hours after carcass exposure during the day. Other insects, such as coleopterans and hymenopterans, can arrive to a carcass during early colonization and affect blow fly development. However, the extent of these interactions remains unclear. This study analyzed the initial 6 h after a piglet carcass was placed out in two locations (rural and urban) in diurnal and nocturnal conditions with continuous video recording and hourly observations. Four piglets were placed out every 2 weeks over the summer of 2014. Initial blow fly arrivals to the carcasses were only recorded during diurnal conditions, and a checklist of orders associated with each environment (time and location) was created. During diurnal conditions, initial blow fly arrival times in rural environments were significantly faster than those in urban, arriving as quickly as 23 s after exposure. These observations also included a novel interaction with Vespidae, which to the best of our knowledge has not been seen in the literature before. This experiment provides baseline data on early insect colonization in two environments in New Jersey, and lends insight into insect interactions that could affect initial colonization.

SPX-8 SpaceX Dragon Spacecraft Approach

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-04-10

iss047e050943 (4/10/2016) --- The SpaceX Dragon cargo spaceship begins the final approach to the International Space Station. On the left, the solar arrays of Orbital ATK’s Cygnus cargo craft can be seen. Dragon’s arrival marked the first time two commercial cargo vehicles have been docked simultaneously at the space station. Orbital ATK’s Cygnus spacecraft arrived to the station just over two weeks ago. With the arrival of Dragon, the space station ties the record for most vehicles on station at one time – six. The spacecraft is delivering about 7,000 pounds of science and research investigations, including the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module, known as BEAM.

Size speed bias or size arrival effect-How judgments of vehicles' approach speed and time to arrival are influenced by the vehicles' size.

PubMed

Petzoldt, Tibor

2016-10-01

Crashes at railway level crossings are a key problem for railway operations. It has been suggested that a potential explanation for such crashes might lie in a so-called size speed bias, which describes the phenomenon that observers underestimate the speed of larger objects, such as aircraft or trains. While there is some evidence that this size speed bias indeed exists, it is somewhat at odds with another well researched phenomenon, the size arrival effect. When asked to judge the time it takes an approaching object to arrive at a predefined position (time to arrival, TTA), observers tend to provide lower estimates for larger objects. In that case, road users' crossing decisions when confronted with larger vehicles should be rather conservative, which has been confirmed in multiple studies on gap acceptance. The aim of the experiment reported in this paper was to clarify the relationship between size speed bias and size arrival effect. Employing a relative judgment task, both speed and TTA estimates were assessed for virtual depictions of a train and a truck, using a car as a reference to compare against. The results confirmed the size speed bias for the speed judgments, with both train and truck being perceived as travelling slower than the car. A comparable bias was also present in the TTA estimates for the truck. In contrast, no size arrival effect could be found for the train or the truck, neither in the speed nor the TTA judgments. This finding is inconsistent with the fact that crossing behaviour when confronted with larger vehicles appears to be consistently more conservative. This discrepancy might be interpreted as an indication that factors other than perceived speed or TTA play an important role for the differences in gap acceptance between different types of vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cascading Delay Risk of Airline Workforce Deployments with Crew Pairing and Schedule Optimization.

PubMed

Chung, Sai Ho; Ma, Hoi Lam; Chan, Hing Kai

2017-08-01

This article concerns the assignment of buffer time between two connected flights and the number of reserve crews in crew pairing to mitigate flight disruption due to flight arrival delay. Insufficient crew members for a flight will lead to flight disruptions such as delays or cancellations. In reality, most of these disruption cases are due to arrival delays of the previous flights. To tackle this problem, many research studies have examined the assignment method based on the historical flight arrival delay data of the concerned flights. However, flight arrival delays can be triggered by numerous factors. Accordingly, this article proposes a new forecasting approach using a cascade neural network, which considers a massive amount of historical flight arrival and departure data. The approach also incorporates learning ability so that unknown relationships behind the data can be revealed. Based on the expected flight arrival delay, the buffer time can be determined and a new dynamic reserve crew strategy can then be used to determine the required number of reserve crews. Numerical experiments are carried out based on one year of flight data obtained from 112 airports around the world. The results demonstrate that by predicting the flight departure delay as the input for the prediction of the flight arrival delay, the prediction accuracy can be increased. Moreover, by using the new dynamic reserve crew strategy, the total crew cost can be reduced. This significantly benefits airlines in flight schedule stability and cost saving in the current big data era. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of economic and performance outcomes associated with the number of treatments after an initial diagnosis of bovine respiratory disease in commercial feeder cattle.

PubMed

Cernicchiaro, Natalia; White, Brad J; Renter, David G; Babcock, Abram H

2013-02-01

To evaluate associations between economic and performance outcomes with the number of treatments after an initial diagnosis of bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in commercial feedlot cattle. 212,867 cattle arriving in a Midwestern feedlot between 2001 and 2006. An economic model was created to estimate net returns. Generalized linear mixed models were used to determine associations between the frequency of BRD treatments and other demographic variables with economic and performance outcomes. Net returns decreased with increasing number of treatments for BRD. However, the magnitude depended on the season during which cattle arrived at the feedlot, with significantly higher returns for cattle arriving during fall and summer than for cattle arriving during winter and spring. For fall arrivals, there were higher mean net returns for cattle that were never treated ($39.41) than for cattle treated once ($29.49), twice ($16.56), or ≥ 3 times (-$33.00). For summer arrivals, there were higher least squares mean net returns for cattle that were never treated ($31.83) than for cattle treated once ($20.22), twice ($6.37), or ≥ 3 times ($-42.56). Carcass traits pertaining to weight and quality grade were deemed responsible for differences in net returns among cattle receiving different numbers of treatments after an initial diagnosis of BRD. Differences in economic net returns and performance outcomes for feedlot cattle were determined on the basis of number of treatments after an initial diagnosis of BRD; the analysis accounted for the season of arrival, sex, and weight class.

Measuring landscape-scale spread and persistence of an invaded submerged plant community from airborne remote sensing.

PubMed

Santos, Maria J; Khanna, Shruti; Hestir, Erin L; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Ustin, Susan L

2016-09-01

Processes of spread and patterns of persistence of invasive species affect species and communities in the new environment. Predicting future rates of spread is of great interest for timely management decisions, but this depends on models that rely on understanding the processes of invasion and historic observations of spread and persistence. Unfortunately, the rates of spread and patterns of persistence are difficult to model or directly observe, especially when multiple rates of spread and diverse persistence patterns may be co-occurring over the geographic distribution of the invaded ecosystem. Remote sensing systematically acquires data over large areas at fine spatial and spectral resolutions over multiple time periods that can be used to quantify spread processes and persistence patterns. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy data acquired once a year for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 to map an invaded submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) community across 2220 km 2 of waterways in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA, and measured its spread rate and its persistence. Submerged aquatic vegetation covered 13-23 km 2 of the waterways (6-11%) every year. Yearly new growth accounted for 40-60% of the SAV area, ~50% of which survived to following year. Spread rates were overall negative and persistence decreased with time. From this dataset, we were able to identify both radial and saltatorial spread of the invaded SAV in the entire extent of the Delta over time. With both decreasing spread rate and persistence, it is possible that over time the invasion of this SAV community could decrease its ecological impact. A landscape-scale approach allows measurements of all invasion fronts and the spatial anisotropies associated with spread processes and persistence patterns, without spatial interpolation, at locations both proximate and distant to the focus of invasion at multiple points in time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

2016-04-01

We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

Plant Invasions in China – Challenges and Chances

PubMed Central

Axmacher, Jan C.; Sang, Weiguo

2013-01-01

Invasive species cause serious environmental and economic harm and threaten global biodiversity. We set out to investigate how quickly invasive plant species are currently spreading in China and how their resulting distribution patterns are linked to socio-economic and environmental conditions. A comparison of the invasive plant species density (log species/log area) reported in 2008 with current data shows that invasive species were originally highly concentrated in the wealthy, southeastern coastal provinces of China, but they are currently rapidly spreading inland. Linear regression models based on the species density and turnover of invasive plants as dependent parameters and principal components representing key socio-economic and environmental parameters as predictors indicate strong positive links between invasive plant density and the overall phytodiversity and associated climatic parameters. Principal components representing socio-economic factors and endemic plant density also show significant positive links with invasive plant density. Urgent control and eradication measures are needed in China's coastal provinces to counteract the rapid inland spread of invasive plants. Strict controls of imports through seaports need to be accompanied by similarly strict controls of the developing horticultural trade and underpinned by awareness campaigns for China's increasingly affluent population to limit the arrival of new invaders. Furthermore, China needs to fully utilize its substantial native phytodiversity, rather than relying on exotics, in current large-scale afforestation projects and in the creation of urban green spaces. PMID:23691164

THE BURDEN OF DENGUE AND CHIKUNGUNYA WORLDWIDE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND CALIFORNIA

PubMed Central

Fredericks, Anthony C.; Fernandez-Sesma, Ana

2015-01-01

Dengue virus (DENV) spreads to humans through the bite of an infected Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus mosquito and is a growing public health threat to both industrialized and developing nations worldwide. Outbreaks of autochthonous dengue in the United States occurred extensively in the past but over the past three decades have again taken place in Florida, Hawai’i, and Texas as well as in American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. As the Aedes vectors spread worldwide it is anticipated that DENV as well as other viruses also transmitted by these vectors, such as Chikungunya virus (CHKV), will invade new areas of the world, including the US. In this review, we describe the current burden of dengue disease worldwide and the potential introduction of DENV and CHKV into different areas of the US. Of these areas, the state of California saw the arrival and spread of the Aedes aegypti vector beginning in 2013. This invasion presents a developing situation when considering the state’s number of imported dengue cases and proximity to northern Mexico as well as the rising specter of chikungunya in the Western hemisphere. The distribution of Aedes vectors in California as well as a discussion of several factors contributing to the risk of dengue importation are discussed and evaluated. PMID:25960096

It is more efficient to type: innovative self-registration and appointment self-arrival system improves the patient reception process.

PubMed

Knight, Vickie; Guy, Rebecca J; Handan, Wand; Lu, Heng; McNulty, Anna

2014-06-01

In 2010, we introduced an express sexually transmitted infection/HIV testing service at a large metropolitan sexual health clinic, which significantly increased clinical service capacity. However, it also increased reception staff workload and caused backlogs of patients waiting to register or check in for appointments. We therefore implemented a new electronic self-registration and appointment self-arrival system in March 2012 to increase administrative efficiency and reduce waiting time for patients. We compared the median processing time overall and for each step of the registration and arrival process as well as the completeness of patient contact information recorded, in a 1-week period before and after the redesign of the registration system. χ2 Test and rank sum tests were used. Before the redesign, the median processing time was 8.33 minutes (interquartile range [IQR], 6.82-15.43), decreasing by 30% to 5.83 minutes (IQR, 4.75-7.42) when the new electronic self-registration and appointment self-arrival system was introduced (P < 0.001). The largest gain in efficiency was in the time taken to prepare the medical record for the clinician, reducing from a median of 5.31 minutes (IQR, 4.02-8.29) to 0.57 minutes (IQR, 0.38-1) in the 2 periods. Before implementation, 20% of patients provided a postal address and 31% an e-mail address, increasing to 60% and 70% post redesign, respectively (P < 0.001). Our evaluation shows that an electronic patient self-registration and appointment self-arrival system can improve clinic efficiency and save patient time. Systems like this one could be used by any outpatient service with large patient volumes as an integrated part of the electronic patient management system or as a standalone feature.

Aerodynamic tricks for pitching oscillation and visual stabilization in a hovering bird

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Jian-Yuan; Ting, Shang-Chieh; Yang, Jing-Tang

2010-11-01

We experimentally investigate how small birds attain a stabilized vision and body posture during hovering. Wing-beats of finches and passerines executing asymmetrical hovering provide lift merely during the downstroke. The downstroke lift is significantly greater than the bird weight, thereby causing a pitch-up swing of the bird body. A hovering bird skillfully and unceasingly tunes the position and orientation of lift force to stabilize its vision, so that the eye displacement is approximately one-tenth less than the tail, causing an illusion that the bird body is rotating about the eye. The hovering birds also spread and fold periodically their tail with an evident phase relationship with respect to the beating wings. We found that hovering birds use their tail to intercept the strong downward air-flow induced by the downstroking wings, and sophisticatedly spread their tail upon the arrival of the downward air-flow, rendering a pitch-up moment that effectively counteracts the pitch-down body rotation. Hence during hovering the bird essentially undergoes a dynamically-stable pitching oscillation, and concurrently attains a stabilized vision.

Prevention of spread of communicable disease by air travel.

PubMed

Evans, Anthony D; Thibeault, Claude

2009-07-01

Mathematical modeling suggests that travel restrictions are likely to have only a limited effect on minimizing the spread of disease. Nevertheless, medical screening of travelers remains an option to be considered in a risk-reduction strategy. Screening of departing and/or arriving travelers are possibilities, although the World Health Organization (WHO) favors the former as it is normally easier to geographically contain a disease prior to its transmission outside the outbreak area. Apart from airport screening, several other related issues require consideration, including: transmission of disease on board aircraft; transmission of disease in airport terminal buildings; and contact tracing. A major challenge is to ensure adequate resources are devoted to pandemic preparedness planning in the aviation sector, which may not be fully considered in a national preparedness plan. This is because the prevention of accidents occupies most of the attention of regulatory aviation authorities, and public health authorities do not always see aviation as a priority area. Chief medical officers of regulatory authorities may be in a position to facilitate collaboration between the many stakeholders involved in preparedness planning for aviation.

Improving ED efficiency to capture additional revenue.

PubMed

Mandavia, Sujal; Samaniego, Loretta

2016-06-01

An increase in the number of patients visiting emergency departments (EDs) presents an opportunity for additional revenue if hospitals take four steps to optimize resources: Streamline the patient pathway and reduce the amount of time each patient occupies a bed in the ED. Schedule staff according to the busy and light times for patient arrivals. Perform registration and triage bedside, reducing initial wait times. Create an area for patients to wait for test results so beds can be freed up for new arrivals.

Tests of general relativity using pulsars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichley, P. E.

1971-01-01

The arrival times of the pulses from each pulsar are measured by a cesium clock. The observations are all made at a frequency of 2388 MHz (12.5 cm wavelength) on a 26 m dish antenna. The effect of interstellar charged particles is a random one that increases the noise level on the arrival time measurements. The variation in clock rate is shown consisting of two effects: the time dilation effect of special relativity and the red shift effect of general relativity.

Buses of Cuernavaca—an agent-based model for universal random matrix behavior minimizing mutual information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warchoł, Piotr

2018-06-01

The public transportation system of Cuernavaca, Mexico, exhibits random matrix theory statistics. In particular, the fluctuation of times between the arrival of buses on a given bus stop, follows the Wigner surmise for the Gaussian unitary ensemble. To model this, we propose an agent-based approach in which each bus driver tries to optimize his arrival time to the next stop with respect to an estimated arrival time of his predecessor. We choose a particular form of the associated utility function and recover the appropriate distribution in numerical experiments for a certain value of the only parameter of the model. We then investigate whether this value of the parameter is otherwise distinguished within an information theoretic approach and give numerical evidence that indeed it is associated with a minimum of averaged pairwise mutual information.

Single Station System and Method of Locating Lightning Strikes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Medelius, Pedro J. (Inventor); Starr, Stanley O. (Inventor)

2003-01-01

An embodiment of the present invention uses a single detection system to approximate a location of lightning strikes. This system is triggered by a broadband RF detector and measures a time until the arrival of a leading edge of the thunder acoustic pulse. This time difference is used to determine a slant range R from the detector to the closest approach of the lightning. The azimuth and elevation are determined by an array of acoustic sensors. The leading edge of the thunder waveform is cross-correlated between the various acoustic sensors in the array to determine the difference in time of arrival, AT. A set of AT S is used to determine the direction of arrival, AZ and EL. The three estimated variables (R, AZ, EL) are used to locate a probable point of the lightning strike.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Jian; Casey, Cameron P.; Zheng, Xueyun

Motivation: Drift tube ion mobility spectrometry (DTIMS) is increasingly implemented in high throughput omics workflows, and new informatics approaches are necessary for processing the associated data. To automatically extract arrival times for molecules measured by DTIMS coupled with mass spectrometry and compute their associated collisional cross sections (CCS) we created the PNNL Ion Mobility Cross Section Extractor (PIXiE). The primary application presented for this algorithm is the extraction of information necessary to create a reference library containing accu-rate masses, DTIMS arrival times and CCSs for use in high throughput omics analyses. Results: We demonstrate the utility of this approach bymore » automatically extracting arrival times and calculating the associated CCSs for a set of endogenous metabolites and xenobiotics. The PIXiE-generated CCS values were identical to those calculated by hand and within error of those calcu-lated using commercially available instrument vendor software.« less

Improving the depth sensitivity of time-resolved measurements by extracting the distribution of times-of-flight

PubMed Central

Diop, Mamadou; St. Lawrence, Keith

2013-01-01

Time-resolved (TR) techniques provide a means of discriminating photons based on their time-of-flight. Since early arriving photons have a lower probability of probing deeper tissue than photons with long time-of-flight, time-windowing has been suggested as a method for improving depth sensitivity. However, TR measurements also contain instrument contributions (instrument-response-function, IRF), which cause temporal broadening of the measured temporal point-spread function (TPSF) compared to the true distribution of times-of-flight (DTOF). The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of the IRF on the depth sensitivity of TR measurements. TPSFs were acquired on homogeneous and two-layer tissue-mimicking phantoms with varying optical properties. The measured IRF and TPSFs were deconvolved using a stable algorithm to recover the DTOFs. The microscopic Beer-Lambert law was applied to the TPSFs and DTOFs to obtain depth-resolved absorption changes. In contrast to the DTOF, the latest part of the TPSF was not the most sensitive to absorption changes in the lower layer, which was confirmed by computer simulations. The improved depth sensitivity of the DTOF was illustrated in a pig model of the adult human head. Specifically, it was shown that dynamic absorption changes obtained from the late part of the DTOFs recovered from TPSFs acquired by probes positioned on the scalp were similar to absorption changes measured directly on the brain. These results collectively demonstrate that this method improves the depth sensitivity of TR measurements by removing the effects of the IRF. PMID:23504445

Global teleseismic earthquake relocation with improved travel times and procedures for depth determination

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robert, Engdah E.; Van Hilst, R. D.; Buland, Raymond P.

1998-01-01

We relocate nearly 100, 000 events that occurred during the period 1964 to 1995 and are well-constrained teleseismically by arrival-time data reported to the International Seismological Centre (ISC) and to the U. S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC). Hypocenter determination is significantly improved by using, in addition to regional and teleseismic P and S phases, the arrival times of PKiKP, PKPdf, and the teleseismic depth phases pP, pwP, and sP in the relocation procedure. A global probability model developed for later-arriving phases is used to independently identify the depth phases. The relocations are compared to hypocenters reported in the ISC and NEIC catalogs and by other sources. Differences in our epicenters with respect to ISC and NEIC estimates are generally small and regionally systematic due to the combined effects of the observing station network and plate geometry regionally, differences in upper mantle travel times between the reference earth models used, and the use of later-arriving phases. Focal depths are improved substantially over most other independent estimates, demonstrating (for example) how regional structures such as downgoing slabs can severely bias depth estimation when only regional and teleseismic P arrivals are used to determine the hypocenter. The new data base, which is complete to about Mw 5. 2 and includes all events for which moment-tensor solutions are available, has immediate application to high-resolution definition of Wadati-Benioff Zones (WBZs) worldwide, regional and global tomographic imaging, and other studies of earth structure.

Adherence to peritoneal dialysis training schedule.

PubMed

Chow, Kai Ming; Szeto, Cheuk Chun; Leung, Chi Bon; Law, Man Ching; Kwan, Bonnie Ching-Ha; Li, Philip Kam-Tao

2007-02-01

Shortening behaviour during peritoneal dialysis training can be easily measured, and likened to the skipping behaviour in haemodialysis subjects, although its effect on peritoneal dialysis outcomes is now well understood. We studied the clinical impact of failing to adhere to a peritoneal dialysis training programme among incident dialysis patients. This study included 159 consecutive inception peritoneal dialysis patients in a single centre from September 1999 through November 2002. We evaluated the effects of behavioural compliance quantified by the per cent time arriving late for scheduled peritoneal dialysis training. The patients were categorized by whether they arrived late in >20% of their peritoneal dialysis training sessions. Of the 159 incident peritoneal dialysis patients (mean age 57 +/- 13 years) who attended peritoneal dialysis training, 70 subjects (44%) arrived late in >20% of the sessions. They were younger by 5 years than patients who arrived late < or =20%. Mean peritonitis-free time for subjects who arrived late for training in >20% the of sessions was 30.9 months, as compared with 41.8 months in subjects with < or =20% late attendance behaviour (log rank test, P = 0.038). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that late attendance behaviour and baseline serum albumin were the only independent risk factors for the time to a first peritonitis after adjustment for diabetes mellitus and relevant coexisting medical factors. Late arrival in >20% of the peritoneal dialysis training sessions was associated with >50% increased likelihood of subsequent peritonitis, with an adjusted risk ratio of 1.56 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.39; P = 0.04). These findings show that the behavioural measure of late attendance for peritoneal dialysis training has a crucial role in predicting peritonitis. It may therefore represent a practical strategy for identifying poor adherence or predicting medical outcomes.

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: OBSERVATIONS, ARRIVAL TIME MEASUREMENTS, AND ANALYSIS OF 37 MILLISECOND PULSARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arzoumanian, Zaven; Brazier, Adam; Chatterjee, Shami

2015-11-01

We present high-precision timing observations spanning up to nine years for 37 millisecond pulsars monitored with the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We describe the observational and instrumental setups used to collect the data, and methodology applied for calculating pulse times of arrival; these include novel methods for measuring instrumental offsets and characterizing low signal-to-noise ratio timing results. The time of arrival data are fit to a physical timing model for each source, including terms that characterize time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-dependent pulse shape evolution. Inmore » conjunction with the timing model fit, we have performed a Bayesian analysis of a parameterized timing noise model for each source, and detect evidence for excess low-frequency, or “red,” timing noise in 10 of the pulsars. For 5 of these cases this is likely due to interstellar medium propagation effects rather than intrisic spin variations. Subsequent papers in this series will present further analysis of this data set aimed at detecting or limiting the presence of nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave signals.« less

An analysis of the number of parking bays and checkout counters for a supermarket using SAS simulation studio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, Leow Soo

2014-07-01

Two important factors that influence customer satisfaction in large supermarkets or hypermarkets are adequate parking facilities and short waiting times at the checkout counters. This paper describes the simulation analysis of a large supermarket to determine the optimal levels of these two factors. SAS Simulation Studio is used to model a large supermarket in a shopping mall with car park facility. In order to make the simulation model more realistic, a number of complexities are introduced into the model. For example, arrival patterns of customers vary with the time of the day (morning, afternoon and evening) and with the day of the week (weekdays or weekends), the transport mode of arriving customers (by car or other means), the mode of payment (cash or credit card), customer shopping pattern (leisurely, normal, exact) or choice of checkout counters (normal or express). In this study, we focus on 2 important components of the simulation model, namely the parking area, the normal and express checkout counters. The parking area is modeled using a Resource Pool block where one resource unit represents one parking bay. A customer arriving by car seizes a unit of the resource from the Pool block (parks car) and only releases it when he exits the system. Cars arriving when the Resource Pool is empty (no more parking bays) leave without entering the system. The normal and express checkouts are represented by Server blocks with appropriate service time distributions. As a case study, a supermarket in a shopping mall with a limited number of parking bays in Bangsar was chosen for this research. Empirical data on arrival patterns, arrival modes, payment modes, shopping patterns, service times of the checkout counters were collected and analyzed to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis was also performed with different simulation scenarios to identify the parameters for the optimal number the parking spaces and checkout counters.

33 CFR 146.405 - Safety and Security notice of arrival for vessels arriving at a place on the OCS.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... or operator of that vessel must revise and re-submit the NOA within the times required in paragraph (e) of this section. An owner or operator does not need to revise and re-submit an NOA for the... site at http://www.nvmc.uscg.gov/. (e) Required reporting time of an NOA update. The owner or operator...

33 CFR 146.405 - Safety and Security notice of arrival for vessels arriving at a place on the OCS.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... or operator of that vessel must revise and re-submit the NOA within the times required in paragraph (e) of this section. An owner or operator does not need to revise and re-submit an NOA for the... site at http://www.nvmc.uscg.gov/. (e) Required reporting time of an NOA update. The owner or operator...

Evaluation of Trajectory Errors in an Automated Terminal-Area Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa M.; Williams, David H.

2003-01-01

A piloted simulation experiment was conducted to document the trajectory errors associated with use of an airplane's Flight Management System (FMS) in conjunction with a ground-based ATC automation system, Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) in the terminal area. Three different arrival procedures were compared: current-day (vectors from ATC), modified (current-day with minor updates), and data link with FMS lateral navigation. Six active airline pilots flew simulated arrivals in a fixed-base simulator. The FMS-datalink procedure resulted in the smallest time and path distance errors, indicating that use of this procedure could reduce the CTAS arrival-time prediction error by about half over the current-day procedure. Significant sources of error contributing to the arrival-time error were crosstrack errors and early speed reduction in the last 2-4 miles before the final approach fix. Pilot comments were all very positive, indicating the FMS-datalink procedure was easy to understand and use, and the increased head-down time and workload did not detract from the benefit. Issues that need to be resolved before this method of operation would be ready for commercial use include development of procedures acceptable to controllers, better speed conformance monitoring, and FMS database procedures to support the approach transitions.

Climate Change and Phenology: Empoasca fabae (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) Migration and Severity of Impact

PubMed Central

Lamp, William O.

2015-01-01

Climate change can benefit individual species, but when pest species are enhanced by warmer temperatures agricultural productivity may be placed at greater risk. We analyzed the effects of temperature anomaly on arrival date and infestation severity of potato leafhopper, Empoasca fabae Harris, a classic new world long distance migrant, and a significant pest in several agricultural crops. We compiled E. fabae arrival dates and infestation severity data at different states in USA from existing literature reviews and agricultural extension records from 1951–2012, and examined the influence of temperature anomalies at each target state or overwintering range on the date of arrival and severity of infestation. Average E. fabae arrival date at different states reveal a clear trend along the south-north axis, with earliest arrival closest to the overwintering range. E. fabae arrival has advanced by 10 days over the last 62 years. E. fabae arrived earlier in warmer years in relation to each target state level temperature anomaly (3.0 days / °C increase in temperature anomaly). Increased temperature had a significant and positive effect on the severity of infestation, and arrival date had a marginal negative effect on severity. These relationships suggest that continued warming could advance the time of E. fabae colonization and increase their impact on affected crops. PMID:25970705

Speculations on the origin of the North American Midcontinent rift

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, W.F.; Hinze, W. J.

1992-01-01

The Midcontinent rift is an example of lithospheric extension and flood basalt volcanism induced when a new mantle plume arrived near the base of the lithosphere. Very large volumes of basaltic magma were generated and partly erupted before substantial lithospheric extension began. Volcanism continued, along with extension and deep rift subsidence, for the ensuing 15 m.y. Much of the basaltic magma, including some of the earliest flows, was formed by partial melting of isotopically primitive asthenosphere contained in the plume head. The intense but relatively short duration of rifting and magmatism is a result of the dissipation of thermal and mechanical energy in the plume head. As the plume head spread beneath the lithosphere, it stretched the overlying lithosphere radially away from the Lake Superior region, the triple junction of the rift system, and partially melted to form the great volume of basalt and related intrusive rocks of the region. The plume arrived beneath a continent that was under compression as a result of the ongoing Grenville orogeny that affected a large region east of the rift. That compression prevented full continental separation and eventually returned the region to compressional tectonics as the energy of the plume head waned. ?? 1992.

Cerebral arterial bolus arrival time is prolonged in multiple sclerosis and associated with disability

PubMed Central

Paling, David; Thade Petersen, Esben; Tozer, Daniel J; Altmann, Daniel R; Wheeler-Kingshott, Claudia AM; Kapoor, Raju; Miller, David H; Golay, Xavier

2014-01-01

Alterations in the overall cerebral hemodynamics have been reported in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, their cause and significance is unknown. While potential venous causes have been examined, arterial causes have not. In this study, a multiple delay time arterial spin labeling magnetic resonance imaging sequence at 3T was used to quantify the arterial hemodynamic parameter bolus arrival time (BAT) and cerebral blood flow (CBF) in normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) and deep gray matter in 33 controls and 35 patients with relapsing–remitting MS. Bolus arrival time was prolonged in MS in NAWM (1.0±0.2 versus 0.9±0.2 seconds, P=0.031) and deep gray matter (0.90±0.18 versus 0.80±0.14 seconds, P=0.001) and CBF was increased in NAWM (14±4 versus 10±2 mL/100 g/min, P=0.001). Prolonged BAT in NAWM (P=0.042) and deep gray matter (P=0.01) were associated with higher expanded disability status score. This study demonstrates alteration in cerebral arterial hemodynamics in MS. One possible cause may be widespread inflammation. Bolus arrival time was longer in patients with greater disability independent of atrophy and T2 lesion load, suggesting alterations in cerebral arterial hemodynamics may be a marker of clinically relevant pathology. PMID:24045400

The aerosphere as a network connector of organisms and their diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Jeremy D.; Bridge, Eli S.; Prosser, Diann J.; Takekawa, John Y.

2018-01-01

Aeroecological processes, especially powered flight of animals, can rapidly connect biological communities across the globe. This can have profound consequences for evolutionary diversification, energy and nutrient transfers, and the spread of infectious diseases. The latter is of particular consequence for human populations, since migratory birds are known to host diseases which have a history of transmission into domestic poultry or even jumping to human hosts. In this chapter, we present a scenario under which a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain enters North America from East Asia via post-molting waterfowl migration. We use an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the movement and disease transmission among 106 generalized waterfowl agents originating from ten molting locations in eastern Siberia, with the HPAI seeded in only ~102 agents at one of these locations. Our ABM tracked the disease dynamics across a very large grid of sites as well as individual agents, allowing us to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of change in virulence of the HPAI infection as well as waterfowl host susceptibility to the disease. We concurrently simulated a 12-station disease monitoring network in the northwest USA and Canada in order to assess the potential efficacy of these sites to detect and confirm the arrival of HPAI. Our findings indicated that HPAI spread was initially facilitated but eventually subdued by the migration of host agents. Yet, during the 90-day simulation, selective pressures appeared to have distilled the HPAI strain to its most virulent form (i.e., through natural selection), which was counterbalanced by the host susceptibility being conversely reduced (i.e., through genetic predisposition and acquired immunity). The monitoring network demonstrated wide variation in the utility of sites; some were clearly better at providing early warnings of HPAI arrival, while sites further from the disease origin exposed the selective dynamics which slowed the spread of the disease albeit with the result of passing highly virulent strains into southern wintering locales (where human impacts are more likely). Though the ABM presented had generalized waterfowl migration and HPAI disease dynamics, this exercise demonstrates the power of such simulations to examine the extremely large and complex processes which comprise aeroecology. We offer insights into how such models could be further parameterized to represent HPAI transmission risks as well as how ABMs could be applied to other aeroecological questions pertaining to individual-based connectivity.

Localization of Gunfire from Multiple Shooters (ARO Research Topic 5.2, Information Processing and Fusion; STIR Program)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-03

for each shot, as well as "raw" data that includes time-of-arrival (TOA) and direction-of-arrival (DOA) of the muzzle blast (MB) produced by the weapon...angle of arrival, muzzle blast, shock wave, bullet deceleration, fusion REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 10. SPONSOR...of the muzzle blast (MB) produced by the weapon and the shock wave (SW) produced by the supersonic bullet. The localization accuracy is improved

Diffusion in Colocation Contact Networks: The Impact of Nodal Spatiotemporal Dynamics.

PubMed

Thomas, Bryce; Jurdak, Raja; Zhao, Kun; Atkinson, Ian

2016-01-01

Temporal contact networks are studied to understand dynamic spreading phenomena such as communicable diseases or information dissemination. To establish how spatiotemporal dynamics of nodes impact spreading potential in colocation contact networks, we propose "inducement-shuffling" null models which break one or more correlations between times, locations and nodes. By reconfiguring the time and/or location of each node's presence in the network, these models induce alternative sets of colocation events giving rise to contact networks with varying spreading potential. This enables second-order causal reasoning about how correlations in nodes' spatiotemporal preferences not only lead to a given contact network but ultimately influence the network's spreading potential. We find the correlation between nodes and times to be the greatest impediment to spreading, while the correlation between times and locations slightly catalyzes spreading. Under each of the presented null models we measure both the number of contacts and infection prevalence as a function of time, with the surprising finding that the two have no direct causality.

The mental health of unaccompanied refugee minors on arrival in the host country.

PubMed

Vervliet, Marianne; Meyer Demott, Melinda A; Jakobsen, Marianne; Broekaert, Eric; Heir, Trond; Derluyn, Ilse

2014-02-01

Despite increasing numbers of unaccompanied refugee minors (UM) in Europe and heightened concerns for this group, research on their mental health has seldom included the factor "time since arrival." As a result, our knowledge of the mental health statuses of UM at specific points in time and over periods in their resettlement trajectories in European host countries is limited. This study therefore examined the mental health of UM shortly after their arrival in Norway (n = 204) and Belgium (n = 103) through the use of self-report questionnaires (HSCL-37A, SLE, RATS, HTQ). High prevalence scores of anxiety, depression and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms were found. In addition, particular associations were found with the number of traumatic events the UM reported. The results indicate that all UM have high support needs on arrival in the host country. Longitudinal studies following up patterns of continuity and change in their mental health during their trajectories in the host country are necessary. © 2014 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mercury in Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis):bioaccumulation and trans-Pacific Ocean migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colman, John A.; Nogueira, Jacob I.; Pancorbo, Oscar C.; Batdorf, Carol A.; Block, Barbara A.

2015-01-01

Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) have the largest home range of any tuna species and are well known for the capacity to make transoceanic migrations. We report the measurement of mercury (Hg) concentrations in wild Pacific bluefin tuna (PBFT), the first reported with known size-of-fish and capture location. The results indicate juvenile PBFT that are recently arrived in the California Current from the western Pacific Ocean have significantly higher Hg concentrations in white muscle (0.51 ug/g wet mass, wm) than PBFT of longer California Current residency (0.41 ug/g wm). These new arrivals are also higher in Hg concentration than PBFT in farm pens (0.43 ug/g wm) that were captured on arrival in the California Current and raised in pens on locally derived feed. Analysis by direct Hg analyzer and attention to Hg by tissue type and location on the fish allowed precise comparisons of mercury among wild and captive fish populations. Analysis of migration and nearshore residency, determined through extensive archival tagging, bioaccumulation models, trophic investigations, and potential coastal sources of methylmercury, indicates Hg bioaccumulation is likely greater for PBFT juvenile habitats in the western Pacific Ocean (East China Sea, Yellow Sea) than in the eastern Pacific Ocean (California Current). Differential bioaccumulation may be a trophic effect or reflect methylmercury availability, with potential sources for coastal China (large hypoxic continental shelf receiving discharge of three large rivers, and island-arc volcanism) different from those for coastal Baja California (small continental shelf, no large rivers, spreading-center volcanism).

Reduced rank models for travel time estimation of low order mode pulses.

PubMed

Chandrayadula, Tarun K; Wage, Kathleen E; Worcester, Peter F; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Mercer, James A; Andrew, Rex K; Howe, Bruce M

2013-10-01

Mode travel time estimation in the presence of internal waves (IWs) is a challenging problem. IWs perturb the sound speed, which results in travel time wander and mode scattering. A standard approach to travel time estimation is to pulse compress the broadband signal, pick the peak of the compressed time series, and average the peak time over multiple receptions to reduce variance. The peak-picking approach implicitly assumes there is a single strong arrival and does not perform well when there are multiple arrivals due to scattering. This article presents a statistical model for the scattered mode arrivals and uses the model to design improved travel time estimators. The model is based on an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the mode time series. Range-dependent simulations and data from the Long-range Ocean Acoustic Propagation Experiment (LOAPEX) indicate that the modes are represented by a small number of EOFs. The reduced-rank EOF model is used to construct a travel time estimator based on the Matched Subspace Detector (MSD). Analysis of simulation and experimental data show that the MSDs are more robust to IW scattering than peak picking. The simulation analysis also highlights how IWs affect the mode excitation by the source.

Asynchronous, Decentralized DS-CDMA Using Feedback-Controlled Spreading Sequences for Time-Dispersive Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyatake, Teruhiko; Chiba, Kazuki; Hamamura, Masanori; Tachikawa, Shin'ichi

We propose a novel asynchronous direct-sequence codedivision multiple access (DS-CDMA) using feedback-controlled spreading sequences (FCSSs) (FCSS/DS-CDMA). At the receiver of FCSS/DS-CDMA, the code-orthogonalizing filter (COF) produces a spreading sequence, and the receiver returns the spreading sequence to the transmitter. Then the transmitter uses the spreading sequence as its updated version. The performance of FCSS/DS-CDMA is evaluated over time-dispersive channels. The results indicate that FCSS/DS-CDMA greatly suppresses both the intersymbol interference (ISI) and multiple access interference (MAI) over time-invariant channels. FCSS/DS-CDMA is applicable to the decentralized multiple access.

Accurate identification of microseismic P- and S-phase arrivals using the multi-step AIC algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Mengbo; Wang, Liguan; Liu, Xiaoming; Zhao, Jiaxuan; Peng, Ping'an

2018-03-01

Identification of P- and S-phase arrivals is the primary work in microseismic monitoring. In this study, a new multi-step AIC algorithm is proposed. This algorithm consists of P- and S-phase arrival pickers (P-picker and S-picker). The P-picker contains three steps: in step 1, a preliminary P-phase arrival window is determined by the waveform peak. Then a preliminary P-pick is identified using the AIC algorithm. Finally, the P-phase arrival window is narrowed based on the above P-pick. Thus the P-phase arrival can be identified accurately by using the AIC algorithm again. The S-picker contains five steps: in step 1, a narrow S-phase arrival window is determined based on the P-pick and the AIC curve of amplitude biquadratic time-series. In step 2, the S-picker automatically judges whether the S-phase arrival is clear to identify. In step 3 and 4, the AIC extreme points are extracted, and the relationship between the local minimum and the S-phase arrival is researched. In step 5, the S-phase arrival is picked based on the maximum probability criterion. To evaluate of the proposed algorithm, a P- and S-picks classification criterion is also established based on a source location numerical simulation. The field data tests show a considerable improvement of the multi-step AIC algorithm in comparison with the manual picks and the original AIC algorithm. Furthermore, the technique is independent of the kind of SNR. Even in the poor-quality signal group which the SNRs are below 5, the effective picking rates (the corresponding location error is <15 m) of P- and S-phase arrivals are still up to 80.9% and 76.4% respectively.

GLASS 2.0: An Operational, Multimodal, Bayesian Earthquake Data Association Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, H.; Johnson, C. E.; Patton, J. M.; McMahon, N. D.; Earle, P. S.

2015-12-01

The legacy approach to automated detection and determination of hypocenters is arrival time stacking algorithms. Examples of such algorithms are the associator, Binder, which has been in continuous use in many USGS-supported regional seismic networks since the 1980s and the spherical earth successor, GLASS 1.0, currently in service at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center for over 10 years. The principle short-comings of the legacy approach are 1) it can only use phase arrival times, 2) it does not adequately address the problems of extreme variations in station density worldwide, 3) it cannot incorporate multiple phase models or statistical attributes of phases with distance, and 4) it cannot incorporate noise model attributes of individual stations. Previously we introduced a theoretical framework of a new associator using a Bayesian kernel stacking approach to approximate a joint probability density function for hypocenter localization. More recently we added station- and phase-specific Bayesian constraints to the association process. GLASS 2.0 incorporates a multiplicity of earthquake related data including phase arrival times, back-azimuth and slowness information from array beamforming, arrival times from waveform cross correlation processing, and geographic constraints from real-time social media reports of ground shaking. We demonstrate its application by modeling an aftershock sequence using dozens of stations that recorded tens of thousands of earthquakes over a period of one month. We also demonstrate Glass 2.0 performance regionally and teleseismically using the globally distributed real-time monitoring system at NEIC.

A model of seismic coda arrivals to suppress spurious events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, N.; Russell, S.

2012-04-01

We describe a model of coda arrivals which has been added to NET-VISA (Network processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis) our probabilistic generative model of seismic events, their transmission, and detection on a global seismic network. The scattered energy that follows a seismic phase arrival tends to deceive typical STA/LTA based arrival picking software into believing that a real seismic phase has been detected. These coda arrivals which tend to follow all seismic phases cause most network processing software including NET-VISA to believe that multiple events have taken place. It is not a simple matter of ignoring closely spaced arrivals since arrivals from multiple events can indeed overlap. The current practice in NET-VISA of pruning events within a small space-time neighborhood of a larger event works reasonably well, but it may mask real events produced in an after-shock sequence. Our new model allows any seismic arrival, even coda arrivals, to trigger a subsequent coda arrival. The probability of such a triggered arrival depends on the amplitude of the triggering arrival. Although real seismic phases are more likely to generate such coda arrivals. Real seismic phases also tend to generate coda arrivals with more strongly correlated parameters, for example azimuth and slowness. However, the SNR (Signal to Noise Ratio) of a coda arrival immediately following a phase arrival tends to be lower because of the nature of the SNR calculation. We have calibrated our model on historical statistics of such triggered arrivals and our inference accounts for them while searching for the best explanation of seismic events their association to the arrivals and the coda arrivals. We have tested our new model on one week of global seismic data spanning March 22, 2009 to March 29, 2009. Our model was trained on two and half months of data from April 5, 2009 to June 20, 2009. We use the LEB bulletin produced by the IDC (International Data Center) as the ground truth and computed the precision (percentage of reported events which are true) and recall (percentage of true events which are reported). The existing model has a precision of 32.2 and recall of 88.6 which changes to a precision of 50.7 and recall of 88.5 after pruning. The new model has a precision of 56.8 and recall of 86.9 without any pruning and the corresponding precision recall curve is dramatically improved. In contrast, the performance of the current automated bulletin at the IDC, SEL3, has a precision of 46.2 and recall of 69.7.

Zika Virus: Can India Win the Fight?

PubMed Central

Singh, Tulika

2017-01-01

Zika virus is an emerging arbovirus of public health importance transmitted by Aedes mosquito which also transmits dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever. The disease has been spreading at an alarming rate in Africa, Pacific Islands, and the Americas. Given the expansion of environments where mosquitoes can live and breed, facilitated by urbanization and globalization, there is potential for major urban epidemics of Zika virus disease to occur globally. World Health Organization (WHO) has declared Zika virus disease to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Our failed attempts to control dengue epidemics in the past call for concern and we need to be to prepared to fight Zika virus before it arrives at our doors. PMID:28553020

Quantitative model of price diffusion and market friction based on trading as a mechanistic random process.

PubMed

Daniels, Marcus G; Farmer, J Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-14

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-01

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Changes in spring arrival dates and temperature sensitivity of migratory birds over two centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolářová, Eva; Matiu, Michael; Menzel, Annette; Nekovář, Jiří; Lumpe, Petr; Adamík, Peter

2017-07-01

Long-term phenological data have been crucial at documenting the effects of climate change in organisms. However, in most animal taxa, time series length seldom exceeds 35 years. Therefore, we have limited evidence on animal responses to climate prior to the recent warm period. To fill in this gap, we present time series of mean first arrival dates to Central Europe for 13 bird species spanning 183 years (1828-2010). We found a uniform trend of arrival dates advancing in the most recent decades (since the late 1970s). Interestingly, birds were arriving earlier during the cooler early part of the nineteenth century than in the recent warm period. Temperature sensitivity was slightly stronger in the warmest 30-year period (-1.70 ± SD 0.47 day °C-1) than in the coldest period (-1.42 ± SD 0.89 day °C-1); however, the difference was not statistically significant. In the most recent decades, the temperature sensitivity of both short- and long-distance migrants significantly increased. Our results demonstrate how centennial time series can provide a much more comprehensive perspective on avian responses to climate change.

Tracking fin whales in the northeast Pacific Ocean with a seafloor seismic network.

PubMed

Wilcock, William S D

2012-10-01

Ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) networks represent a tool of opportunity to study fin and blue whales. A small OBS network on the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the northeast Pacific Ocean in ~2.3 km of water recorded an extensive data set of 20-Hz fin whale calls. An automated method has been developed to identify arrival times based on instantaneous frequency and amplitude and to locate calls using a grid search even in the presence of a few bad arrival times. When only one whale is calling near the network, tracks can generally be obtained up to distances of ~15 km from the network. When the calls from multiple whales overlap, user supervision is required to identify tracks. The absolute and relative amplitudes of arrivals and their three-component particle motions provide additional constraints on call location but are not useful for extending the distance to which calls can be located. The double-difference method inverts for changes in relative call locations using differences in residuals for pairs of nearby calls recorded on a common station. The method significantly reduces the unsystematic component of the location error, especially when inconsistencies in arrival time observations are minimized by cross-correlation.

Trauma deaths in the first hour: are they all unsalvageable injuries?

PubMed

MacLeod, Jana B A; Cohn, Stephen M; Johnson, E William; McKenney, Mark G

2007-02-01

With the advent of trauma systems, time to definitive care has been decreased. We hypothesized that a subset of patients who are in extremis from the time of prehospital transport to arrival at the trauma center, and who ultimately die early after arrival, may in fact have a potentially salvageable single-organ injury. We reviewed all deaths that occurred in the first hour after hospital admission. Trauma registry, medical records, and autopsy reports for 556 patients were evaluated. The median time to arrival was 39 minutes, and the median Injury Severity Score was 29. Blunt injuries (53%) were most commonly auto-accident injuries (134 of 285 patients; 47%). Penetrating wounds (42%) were mostly gunshot wounds to the chest (73 of 233 patients; 31%). For patients with initial vital signs, the most common cause of death was isolated brain injury (26 patients; 28%). Possibly survivable injuries (single organ or vessel) occurred in 35 (38%) patients, of which 4 were isolated spleen injuries (4%). Some patients with potentially survivable single organ injuries did not have associated head injuries. An aggressive approach is warranted on patients with detectable vital signs on at least one occasion in the field but who arrive at the trauma center in extremis.

Air Medical Evacuations From the German North Sea Wind Farm Bard Offshore 1: Traumatic Injuries, Acute Diseases, and Rescue Process Times (2011-2013).

PubMed

Dethleff, Dirk; Weinrich, Nils; Kowald, Birgitt; Hory, Dorothea; Franz, Rüdiger; Nielsen, Maja Verena; Seide, Klaus; Jürgens, Christian; Stuhr, Markus

2016-01-01

Our purpose was 2-fold: 1) to show emergency-related traumatic injury and acute disease patterns and 2) to evaluate air rescue process times in a remotely located German offshore wind farm. Optimally, this will support methodologies to reduce offshore help time (time from the incoming emergency call until offshore arrival of the helicopter). The type and severity of traumatic injuries and acute diseases were retrospectively analyzed for 39 air medevacs from August 2011 to December 2013, and the process times of air rescue missions were evaluated in detail. Forty-nine percent of the medevacs were related to traumatic injuries, whereas 41% were associated with acute diseases and 10% remained unclear. Cardiovascular and gastrointestinal disorders accounted for 90% of internal medical cases. About 69% of the trauma was related to contusions, lacerations, and cuts. The main body regions injured were limbs (∼59%) and head (∼32%). The total rescue time until arrival at the destination facility averaged 175.3 minutes (standard deviation = 54.4 minutes). The mean helicopter offshore arrival time was 106.9 minutes (standard deviation = 57.4 minutes) after the incoming emergency call. In 64% of the medevacs, the helicopter arrived on scene within a help time of 90 minutes. A reduction of help time (≤ 60 minutes) for time-critical severe trauma and acute diseases may be anticipated through rapid and focused medical and logistic decision-making processes by the onshore dispatch center combined with professional, qualified, and well-trained flight and rescue personnel. Copyright © 2016 Air Medical Journal Associates. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of prehospital epinephrine administration on neurologically intact survival in bystander-witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with non-shockable rhythm depend on prehospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation duration required to hospital arrival.

PubMed

Funada, Akira; Goto, Yoshikazu; Tada, Hayato; Shimojima, Masaya; Hayashi, Kenshi; Kawashiri, Masa-Aki; Yamagishi, Masakazu

2018-06-23

The effects of prehospital epinephrine administration on post-arrest neurological outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with non-shockable rhythm remain unclear. To examine the time-dependent effectiveness of prehospital epinephrine administration, we analyzed 118,396 bystander-witnessed OHCA patients with non-shockable rhythm from the prospectively recorded all-Japan OHCA registry between 2011 and 2014. Patients who achieved prehospital return of spontaneous circulation without prehospital epinephrine administration were excluded. Patients with prehospital epinephrine administration were stratified according to the time from the initiation of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) by emergency medical service (EMS) providers to the first epinephrine administration (≤ 10, 11-19, and ≥ 20 min). Patients without prehospital epinephrine administration were stratified according to the time from CPR initiation by EMS providers to hospital arrival (≤ 10, 11-19, and ≥ 20 min). The primary outcome was 1-month neurologically intact survival (cerebral performance category 1 or 2; CPC 1-2). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that there was no significant difference in the chance of 1-month CPC 1-2 between patients who arrived at hospital in ≤ 10 min without prehospital epinephrine administration and patients with time to epinephrine administration ≤ 19 min. However, compared to patients who arrived at hospital in ≤ 10 min without prehospital epinephrine administration, patients with time to epinephrine administration ≥ 20 min and patients who arrived at hospital in 11-19, and ≥ 20 min without prehospital epinephrine administration were significantly associated with decreased chance of 1-month CPC 1-2 (p < 0.05, < 0.05, and < 0.001, respectively). In conclusion, when prehospital CPR duration from CPR initiation by EMS providers to hospital arrival estimated to be ≥ 11 min, prehospital epinephrine administered ≤ 19 min from CPR initiation by EMS providers could improve neurologically intact survival in bystander-witnessed OHCA patients with non-shockable rhythm.

Acoustic time-of-flight for proton range verification in water

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Kevin C.; Avery, Stephen, E-mail: Stephen.A

2016-09-15

Purpose: Measurement of the arrival times of thermoacoustic waves induced by pulsed proton dose depositions (protoacoustics) may provide a proton range verification method. The goal of this study is to characterize the required dose and protoacoustic proton range (distance) verification accuracy in a homogeneous water medium at a hospital-based clinical cyclotron. Methods: Gaussian-like proton pulses with 17 μs widths and instantaneous currents of 480 nA (5.6 × 10{sup 7} protons/pulse, 3.4 cGy/pulse at the Bragg peak) were generated by modulating the cyclotron proton source with a function generator. After energy degradation, the 190 MeV proton pulses irradiated a water phantom,more » and the generated protoacoustic emissions were measured by a hydrophone. The detector position and proton pulse characteristics were varied. The experimental results were compared to simulations. Different arrival time metrics derived from acoustic waveforms were compared, and the accuracy of protoacoustic time-of-flight distance calculations was assessed. Results: A 27 mPa noise level was observed in the treatment room during irradiation. At 5 cm from the proton beam, an average maximum pressure of 5.2 mPa/1 × 10{sup 7} protons (6.1 mGy at the Bragg peak) was measured after irradiation with a proton pulse with 10%–90% rise time of 11 μs. Simulation and experiment arrival times agreed well, and the observed 2.4 μs delay between simulation and experiment is attributed to the difference between the hydrophone’s acoustic and geometric centers. Based on protoacoustic arrival times, the beam axis position was measured to within (x, y) = (−2.0,  0.5) ± 1 mm. After deconvolution of the exciting proton pulse, the protoacoustic compression peak provided the most consistent measure of the distance to the Bragg peak, with an error distribution with mean = − 4.5 mm and standard deviation = 2.0 mm. Conclusions: Based on water tank measurements at a clinical hospital-based cyclotron, protoacoustics is a potential method for measuring the beam’s position (x and y within 2.0 mm) and Bragg peak range (2.0 mm standard deviation), although range verification will require simulation or experimental calibration to remove systematic error. Based on extrapolation, a protoacoustic arrival time reproducibility of 1.5 μs (2.2 mm) is achievable with 2 Gy of total deposited dose. Of the compared methods, deconvolution of the excitation proton pulse is the best technique for extracting protoacoustic arrival times, particularly if there is variation in the proton pulse shape.« less

Acoustic time-of-flight for proton range verification in water.

PubMed

Jones, Kevin C; Vander Stappen, François; Sehgal, Chandra M; Avery, Stephen

2016-09-01

Measurement of the arrival times of thermoacoustic waves induced by pulsed proton dose depositions (protoacoustics) may provide a proton range verification method. The goal of this study is to characterize the required dose and protoacoustic proton range (distance) verification accuracy in a homogeneous water medium at a hospital-based clinical cyclotron. Gaussian-like proton pulses with 17 μs widths and instantaneous currents of 480 nA (5.6 × 10(7) protons/pulse, 3.4 cGy/pulse at the Bragg peak) were generated by modulating the cyclotron proton source with a function generator. After energy degradation, the 190 MeV proton pulses irradiated a water phantom, and the generated protoacoustic emissions were measured by a hydrophone. The detector position and proton pulse characteristics were varied. The experimental results were compared to simulations. Different arrival time metrics derived from acoustic waveforms were compared, and the accuracy of protoacoustic time-of-flight distance calculations was assessed. A 27 mPa noise level was observed in the treatment room during irradiation. At 5 cm from the proton beam, an average maximum pressure of 5.2 mPa/1 × 10(7) protons (6.1 mGy at the Bragg peak) was measured after irradiation with a proton pulse with 10%-90% rise time of 11 μs. Simulation and experiment arrival times agreed well, and the observed 2.4 μs delay between simulation and experiment is attributed to the difference between the hydrophone's acoustic and geometric centers. Based on protoacoustic arrival times, the beam axis position was measured to within (x, y) = (-2.0,  0.5) ± 1 mm. After deconvolution of the exciting proton pulse, the protoacoustic compression peak provided the most consistent measure of the distance to the Bragg peak, with an error distribution with mean = - 4.5 mm and standard deviation = 2.0 mm. Based on water tank measurements at a clinical hospital-based cyclotron, protoacoustics is a potential method for measuring the beam's position (x and y within 2.0 mm) and Bragg peak range (2.0 mm standard deviation), although range verification will require simulation or experimental calibration to remove systematic error. Based on extrapolation, a protoacoustic arrival time reproducibility of 1.5 μs (2.2 mm) is achievable with 2 Gy of total deposited dose. Of the compared methods, deconvolution of the excitation proton pulse is the best technique for extracting protoacoustic arrival times, particularly if there is variation in the proton pulse shape.

African departure rather than migration speed determines variation in spring arrival in pied flycatchers.

PubMed

Ouwehand, Janne; Both, Christiaan

2017-01-01

Properly timed spring migration enhances reproduction and survival. Climate change requires organisms to respond to changes such as advanced spring phenology. Pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca have become a model species to study such phenological adaptations of long-distance migratory songbirds to climate change, but data on individuals' time schedules outside the breeding season are still lacking. Using light-level geolocators, we studied variation in migration schedules across the year in a pied flycatcher population in the Netherlands, which sheds light on the ability for individual adjustments in spring arrival timing to track environmental changes at their breeding grounds. We show that variation in arrival dates to breeding sites in 2014 was caused by variation in departure date from sub-Saharan Africa and not by environmental conditions encountered en route. Spring migration duration was short for all individuals, on average 2 weeks. Males migrated ahead of females in spring, while migration schedules in autumn were flexibly adjusted according to breeding duties. Individuals were therefore not consistently early or late throughout the year. In fast migrants like our Dutch pied flycatchers, advancement of arrival to climate change likely requires changes in spring departure dates. Adaptation for earlier arrival may be slowed down by harsh circumstances in winter, or years with high costs associated with early migration. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Blind information-theoretic multiuser detection algorithms for DS-CDMA and WCDMA downlink systems.

PubMed

Waheed, Khuram; Salem, Fathi M

2005-07-01

Code division multiple access (CDMA) is based on the spread-spectrum technology and is a dominant air interface for 2.5G, 3G, and future wireless networks. For the CDMA downlink, the transmitted CDMA signals from the base station (BS) propagate through a noisy multipath fading communication channel before arriving at the receiver of the user equipment/mobile station (UE/MS). Classical CDMA single-user detection (SUD) algorithms implemented in the UE/MS receiver do not provide the required performance for modern high data-rate applications. In contrast, multi-user detection (MUD) approaches require a lot of a priori information not available to the UE/MS. In this paper, three promising adaptive Riemannian contra-variant (or natural) gradient based user detection approaches, capable of handling the highly dynamic wireless environments, are proposed. The first approach, blind multiuser detection (BMUD), is the process of simultaneously estimating multiple symbol sequences associated with all the users in the downlink of a CDMA communication system using only the received wireless data and without any knowledge of the user spreading codes. This approach is applicable to CDMA systems with relatively short spreading codes but becomes impractical for systems using long spreading codes. We also propose two other adaptive approaches, namely, RAKE -blind source recovery (RAKE-BSR) and RAKE-principal component analysis (RAKE-PCA) that fuse an adaptive stage into a standard RAKE receiver. This adaptation results in robust user detection algorithms with performance exceeding the linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) detectors for both Direct Sequence CDMA (DS-CDMA) and wide-band CDMA (WCDMA) systems under conditions of congestion, imprecise channel estimation and unmodeled multiple access interference (MAI).

Effect of time to operation on mortality for hypotensive patients with gunshot wounds to the torso: The golden 10 minutes.

PubMed

Meizoso, Jonathan P; Ray, Juliet J; Karcutskie, Charles A; Allen, Casey J; Zakrison, Tanya L; Pust, Gerd D; Koru-Sengul, Tulay; Ginzburg, Enrique; Pizano, Louis R; Schulman, Carl I; Livingstone, Alan S; Proctor, Kenneth G; Namias, Nicholas

2016-10-01

Timely hemorrhage control is paramount in trauma; however, a critical time interval from emergency department arrival to operation for hypotensive gunshot wound (GSW) victims is not established. We hypothesize that delaying surgery for more than 10 minutes from arrival increases all-cause mortality in hypotensive patients with GSW. Data of adults (n = 309) with hypotension and GSW to the torso requiring immediate operation from January 2004 to September 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with resuscitative thoracotomies, traumatic brain injury, transfer from outside institutions, and operations occurring more than 1 hour after arrival were excluded. Survival analysis using multivariate Cox regression models was used for comparison. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are reported. Statistical significance was considered at p ≤ 0.05. The study population was aged 32 ± 12 years, 92% were male, Injury Severity Score was 24 ± 15, systolic blood pressure was 81 ± 29 mm Hg, Glasgow Coma Scale score was 13 ± 4. Overall mortality was 27%. Mean time to operation was 19 ± 13 minutes. After controlling for organ injury, patients who arrived to the operating room after 10 minutes had a higher likelihood of mortality compared with those who arrived in 10 minutes or less (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.10-3.26; p = 0.02); this was also true in the severely hypotensive patients with systolic blood pressure of 70 mm Hg or less (HR, 2.67; 95% CI, 0.97-7.34; p = 0.05). The time associated with a 50% cumulative mortality was 16 minutes. Delay to the operating room of more than 10 minutes increases the risk of mortality by almost threefold in hypotensive patients with GSW. Protocols should be designed to shorten time in the emergency department. Further prospective observational studies are required to validate these findings. Therapeutic study, level IV.

Shear wave speed recovery using moving interference patterns obtained in sonoelastography experiments.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Joyce; Renzi, Daniel; Parker, Kevin; Wu, Zhe

2007-04-01

Two new experiments were created to characterize the elasticity of soft tissue using sonoelastography. In both experiments the spectral variance image displayed on a GE LOGIC 700 ultrasound machine shows a moving interference pattern that travels at a very small fraction of the shear wave speed. The goal of this paper is to devise and test algorithms to calculate the speed of the moving interference pattern using the arrival times of these same patterns. A geometric optics expansion is used to obtain Eikonal equations relating the moving interference pattern arrival times to the moving interference pattern speed and then to the shear wave speed. A cross-correlation procedure is employed to find the arrival times; and an inverse Eikonal solver called the level curve method computes the speed of the interference pattern. The algorithm is tested on data from a phantom experiment performed at the University of Rochester Center for Biomedical Ultrasound.

FLASH free-electron laser single-shot temporal diagnostic: terahertz-field-driven streaking.

PubMed

Ivanov, Rosen; Liu, Jia; Brenner, Günter; Brachmanski, Maciej; Düsterer, Stefan

2018-01-01

The commissioning of a terahertz-field-driven streak camera installed at the free-electron laser (FEL) FLASH at DESY in Hamburg, being able to deliver photon pulse duration as well as arrival time information with ∼10 fs resolution for each single XUV FEL pulse, is reported. Pulse durations between 300 fs and <15 fs have been measured for different FLASH FEL settings. A comparison between the XUV pulse arrival time and the FEL electron bunch arrival time measured at the FLASH linac section exhibits a correlation width of 20 fs r.m.s., thus demonstrating the excellent operation stability of FLASH. In addition, the terahertz-streaking setup was operated simultaneously to an alternative method to determine the FEL pulse duration based on spectral analysis. FLASH pulse duration derived from simple spectral analysis is in good agreement with that from terahertz-streaking measurement.

Clues on the origin of post-2000 earthquakes at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy).

PubMed

Chiodini, G; Selva, J; Del Pezzo, E; Marsan, D; De Siena, L; D'Auria, L; Bianco, F; Caliro, S; De Martino, P; Ricciolino, P; Petrillo, Z

2017-06-30

The inter-arrival times of the post 2000 seismicity at Campi Flegrei caldera are statistically distributed into different populations. The low inter-arrival times population represents swarm events, while the high inter-arrival times population marks background seismicity. Here, we show that the background seismicity is increasing at the same rate of (1) the ground uplift and (2) the concentration of the fumarolic gas specie more sensitive to temperature. The seismic temporal increase is strongly correlated with the results of recent simulations, modelling injection of magmatic fluids in the Campi Flegrei hydrothermal system. These concurrent variations point to a unique process of temperature-pressure increase of the hydrothermal system controlling geophysical and geochemical signals at the caldera. Our results thus show that the occurrence of background seismicity is an excellent parameter to monitor the current unrest of the caldera.

Testing the Einstein's equivalence principle with polarized gamma-ray bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chao; Zou, Yuan-Chuan; Zhang, Yue-Yang; Liao, Bin; Lei, Wei-Hua

2017-07-01

The Einstein's equivalence principle can be tested by using parametrized post-Newtonian parameters, of which the parameter γ has been constrained by comparing the arrival times of photons with different energies. It has been constrained by a variety of astronomical transient events, such as gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), fast radio bursts as well as pulses of pulsars, with the most stringent constraint of Δγ ≲ 10-15. In this Letter, we consider the arrival times of lights with different circular polarization. For a linearly polarized light, it is the combination of two circularly polarized lights. If the arrival time difference between the two circularly polarized lights is too large, their combination may lose the linear polarization. We constrain the value of Δγp < 1.6 × 10-27 by the measurement of the polarization of GRB 110721A, which is the most stringent constraint ever achieved.

Knowledge-Based Scheduling of Arrival Aircraft in the Terminal Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krzeczowski, K. J.; Davis, T.; Erzberger, H.; Lev-Ram, Israel; Bergh, Christopher P.

1995-01-01

A knowledge based method for scheduling arrival aircraft in the terminal area has been implemented and tested in real time simulation. The scheduling system automatically sequences, assigns landing times, and assign runways to arrival aircraft by utilizing continuous updates of aircraft radar data and controller inputs. The scheduling algorithm is driven by a knowledge base which was obtained in over two thousand hours of controller-in-the-loop real time simulation. The knowledge base contains a series of hierarchical 'rules' and decision logic that examines both performance criteria, such as delay reductions, as well as workload reduction criteria, such as conflict avoidance. The objective of the algorithm is to devise an efficient plan to land the aircraft in a manner acceptable to the air traffic controllers. This paper describes the scheduling algorithms, gives examples of their use, and presents data regarding their potential benefits to the air traffic system.

Knowledge-based scheduling of arrival aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krzeczowski, K.; Davis, T.; Erzberger, H.; Lev-Ram, I.; Bergh, C.

1995-01-01

A knowledge-based method for scheduling arrival aircraft in the terminal area has been implemented and tested in real-time simulation. The scheduling system automatically sequences, assigns landing times, and assigns runways to arrival aircraft by utilizing continuous updates of aircraft radar data and controller inputs. The scheduling algorithms is driven by a knowledge base which was obtained in over two thousand hours of controller-in-the-loop real-time simulation. The knowledge base contains a series of hierarchical 'rules' and decision logic that examines both performance criteria, such as delay reduction, as well as workload reduction criteria, such as conflict avoidance. The objective of the algorithms is to devise an efficient plan to land the aircraft in a manner acceptable to the air traffic controllers. This paper will describe the scheduling algorithms, give examples of their use, and present data regarding their potential benefits to the air traffic system.

Scientific and social challenges for the management of fire-prone wildland-urban interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, A. Malcolm; Stephens, Scott L.

2009-09-01

At their worst, fires at the rural-urban or wildland-urban interface cause tragic loss of human lives and homes, but mitigating these fire effects through management elicits many social and scientific challenges. This paper addresses four interconnected management challenges posed by socially disastrous landscape fires. The issues concern various assets (particularly houses, human life and biodiversity), fuel treatments, and fire and human behaviours. The topics considered are: 'asset protection zones'; 'defensible space' and urban fire spread in relation to house ignition and loss; 'stay-or-go' policy and the prediction of time available for safe egress and the possible conflict between the creation of defensible space and wildland management objectives. The first scientific challenge is to model the effective width of an asset protection zone of an urban area. The second is to consider the effect of vegetation around a house, potentially defensible space, on fire arrival at the structure. The third scientific challenge is to present stakeholders with accurate information on rates of spread, and where the fire front is located, so as to allow them to plan safe egress or preparation time in their particular circumstances. The fourth scientific challenge is to be able to predict the effects of fires on wildland species composition. Associated with each scientific challenge is a social challenge: for the first two scientific challenges the social challenge is to co-ordinate fuel management within and between the urban and rural or wildland sides of the interface. For the third scientific challenge, the social challenge is to be aware of, and appropriately use, fire danger information so that the potential for safe egress from a home can be estimated most accurately. Finally, the fourth social challenge is to for local residents of wildland-urban interfaces with an interest in biodiversity conservation to understand the effects of fire regimes on biodiversity, thereby assisting hard-pressed wildland managers to make informed choices.

Method and apparatus for signal processing in a sensor system for use in spectroscopy

DOEpatents

O'Connor, Paul [Bellport, NY; DeGeronimo, Gianluigi [Nesconset, NY; Grosholz, Joseph [Natrona Heights, PA

2008-05-27

A method for processing pulses arriving randomly in time on at least one channel using multiple peak detectors includes asynchronously selecting a non-busy peak detector (PD) in response to a pulse-generated trigger signal, connecting the channel to the selected PD in response to the trigger signal, and detecting a pulse peak amplitude. Amplitude and time of arrival data are output in first-in first-out (FIFO) sequence. An apparatus includes trigger comparators to generate the trigger signal for the pulse-receiving channel, PDs, a switch for connecting the channel to the selected PD, and logic circuitry which maintains the write pointer. Also included, time-to-amplitude converters (TACs) convert time of arrival to analog voltage and an analog multiplexer provides FIFO output. A multi-element sensor system for spectroscopy includes detector elements, channels, trigger comparators, PDs, a switch, and a logic circuit with asynchronous write pointer. The system includes TACs, a multiplexer and analog-to-digital converter.

Continuous time-of-flight ion mass spectrometer

DOEpatents

Funsten, Herbert O.; Feldman, William C.

2004-10-19

A continuous time-of-flight mass spectrometer having an evacuated enclosure with means for generating an electric field located in the evacuated enclosure and means for injecting a sample material into the electric field. A source of continuous ionizing radiation injects ionizing radiation into the electric field to ionize atoms or molecules of the sample material, and timing means determine the time elapsed between arrival of a secondary electron out of said ionized atoms or molecules at a first predetermined location and arrival of a sample ion out of said ionized atoms or molecules at a second predetermined location.

Virtual sea border

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferriere, D.; Rucinski, A.; Jankowski, T.

2007-04-01

Establishing a Virtual Sea Border by performing a real-time, satellite-accessible Internet-based bio-metric supported threat assessment of arriving foreign-flagged cargo ships, their management and ownership, their arrival terminal operator and owner, and rewarding proven legitimate operators with an economic incentive for their transparency will simultaneously improve port security and maritime transportation efficiencies.

Close range fault tolerant noncontacting position sensor

DOEpatents

Bingham, D.N.; Anderson, A.A.

1996-02-20

A method and system are disclosed for locating the three dimensional coordinates of a moving or stationary object in real time. The three dimensional coordinates of an object in half space or full space are determined based upon the time of arrival or phase of the wave front measured by a plurality of receiver elements and an established vector magnitudes proportional to the measured time of arrival or phase at each receiver element. The coordinates of the object are calculated by solving a matrix equation or a set of closed form algebraic equations. 3 figs.

Evaluation of the Aircraft Ground Equipment (AGE) at Pacific Air Force (PACAF) Locations

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-16

repair • Dash 95: TC-21; Old DRMO, arrived at Kunsan 2001 • 7000 lb Bomb lift; MH10 Arrived at Kunsan 2011; CAT3 and never been painted • C1-12 stand...aluminum Sample taken by swabbing PBS soaked gauze back and forth three times K-MH10 Bomb lift and front of AGE Sample taken by swabbing PBS...soaked gauze back and forth three times Non-corroded area of bomb lift Sample taken by swabbing PBS soaked gauze back and forth three times

Microphone array measurement system for analysis of directional and spatial variations of sound fields.

PubMed

Gover, Bradford N; Ryan, James G; Stinson, Michael R

2002-11-01

A measurement system has been developed that is capable of analyzing the directional and spatial variations in a reverberant sound field. A spherical, 32-element array of microphones is used to generate a narrow beam that is steered in 60 directions. Using an omnidirectional loudspeaker as excitation, the sound pressure arriving from each steering direction is measured as a function of time, in the form of pressure impulse responses. By subsequent analysis of these responses, the variation of arriving energy with direction is studied. The directional diffusion and directivity index of the arriving sound can be computed, as can the energy decay rate in each direction. An analysis of the 32 microphone responses themselves allows computation of the point-to-point variation of reverberation time and of sound pressure level, as well as the spatial cross-correlation coefficient, over the extent of the array. The system has been validated in simple sound fields in an anechoic chamber and in a reverberation chamber. The system characterizes these sound fields as expected, both quantitatively from the measures and qualitatively from plots of the arriving energy versus direction. It is anticipated that the system will be of value in evaluating the directional distribution of arriving energy and the degree and diffuseness of sound fields in rooms.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

PubMed

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q < qc. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Modeling a thick unsaturated zone at San Gorgonio Pass, California: lessons learned after five years of artificial recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Alan L.; Ellett, Kevin M.; Christensen, Allen H.; Martin, Peter

2012-01-01

The information flow among the tasks of framework assessment, numerical modeling, model forecasting and hind casting, and system-performance monitoring is illustrated. Results provide an understanding of artificial recharge in high-altitude desert settings where large vertical distances may separate application ponds from their target aquifers.Approximately 3.8 million cubic meters of surface water was applied to spreading ponds from 2003–2007 to artificially recharge the underlying aquifer through a 200-meter thick unsaturated zone in the San Gorgonio Pass area in southern California. A study was conducted between 1997 and 2003, and a numerical model was developed to help determine the suitability of the site for artificial recharge. Ongoing monitoring results indicated that the existing model needed to be modified and recalibrated to more accurately predict artificial recharge at the site. The objective of this work was to recalibrate the model by using observation of the application rates, the rise and fall of the water level above a perching layer, and the approximate arrival time to the water table during the 5-yr monitoring period following initiation of long-term artificial recharge. Continuous monitoring of soil-matric potential, temperature, and water levels beneath the site indicated that artificial recharge reached the underlying water table between 3.75 and 4.5 yr after the initial application of the recharge water. The model was modified to allow the simulation to more adequately match the perching layer dynamics and the time of arrival at the water table. The instrumentation also showed that the lag time between changes in application of water at the surface and the response at the perching layer decreased from about 4 mo to less than 1 mo due to the wet-up of the unsaturated zone and the increase in relative permeability. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of iteratively monitoring and modeling the unsaturated zone in layered alluvial systems in the context of artificial recharge. They show that adequate geologic and hydraulic-property data on perching layers are critical to success. Continuous monitoring in the unsaturated and saturated zones beneath a site provides data to develop and constrain numerical models, better understand local unsaturated zone process, manage artificial recharge operations, and to determine the timing and volume of recoverable water for consumptive use.

Time difference of arrival to blast localization of potential chemical/biological event on the move

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morcos, Amir; Desai, Sachi; Peltzer, Brian; Hohil, Myron E.

2007-10-01

Integrating a sensor suite with ability to discriminate potential Chemical/Biological (CB) events from high-explosive (HE) events employing a standalone acoustic sensor with a Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) algorithm we developed a cueing mechanism for more power intensive and range limited sensing techniques. Enabling the event detection algorithm to locate to a blast event using TDOA we then provide further information of the event as either Launch/Impact and if CB/HE. The added information is provided to a range limited chemical sensing system that exploits spectroscopy to determine the contents of the chemical event. The main innovation within this sensor suite is the system will provide this information on the move while the chemical sensor will have adequate time to determine the contents of the event from a safe stand-off distance. The CB/HE discrimination algorithm exploits acoustic sensors to provide early detection and identification of CB attacks. Distinct characteristics arise within the different airburst signatures because HE warheads emphasize concussive and shrapnel effects, while CB warheads are designed to disperse their contents over large areas, therefore employing a slower burning, less intense explosive to mix and spread their contents. Differences characterized by variations in the corresponding peak pressure and rise time of the blast, differences in the ratio of positive pressure amplitude to the negative amplitude, and variations in the overall duration of the resulting waveform. The discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used to extract the predominant components of these characteristics from air burst signatures at ranges exceeding 3km. Highly reliable discrimination is achieved with a feed-forward neural network classifier trained on a feature space derived from the distribution of wavelet coefficients and higher frequency details found within different levels of the multiresolution decomposition. The development of an adaptive noise floor to provide early event detection assists in minimizing the false alarm rate and increasing the confidence whether the event is blast event or back ground noise. The integration of these algorithms with the TDOA algorithm provides a complex suite of algorithms that can give early warning detection and highly reliable look direction from a great stand-off distance for a moving vehicle to determine if a candidate blast event is CB and if CB what is the composition of the resulting cloud.

Age at Arrival and Life Chances Among Childhood Immigrants.

PubMed

Hermansen, Are Skeie

2017-02-01

This study examines the causal relationship between childhood immigrants' age at arrival and their life chances as adults. I analyze panel data on siblings from Norwegian administrative registries, which enables me to disentangle the effect of age at arrival on adult socioeconomic outcomes from all fixed family-level conditions and endowments shared by siblings. Results from sibling fixed-effects models reveal a progressively stronger adverse influence of immigration at later stages of childhood on completed education, employment, adult earnings, occupational attainment, and social welfare assistance. The persistence of these relationships within families indicates that experiences related to the timing of childhood immigration have causal effects on later-life outcomes. These age-at-arrival effects are considerably stronger among children who arrive from geographically distant and economically less-developed origin regions than among children originating from developed countries. The age-at-arrival effects vary less by parental education and child gender. On the whole, the findings indicate that childhood immigration after an early-life formative period tends to constrain later human capital formation and economic opportunities over the life course.

Spring resource phenology and timing of songbird migration across the Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paxton, Eben H.; Cohen, Emily B.; Németh, Zoltan; Zenzal, Theodore J.; Paxton, Kristina L.; Diehl, Robert H.; Moore, Frank R.

2015-01-01

Migratory songbirds are advancing their arrival to breeding areas in response to climatic warming at temperate latitudes. Less is understood about the impacts of climate changes outside the breeding period. Every spring, millions of migrating songbirds that overwinter in the Caribbean and Central and South America stop to rest and refuel in the first available habitats after crossing the Gulf of Mexico. We used capture data from a long-term banding station (20 years: 1993 to 2012) located on the northern coast of the Gulf to assess the passage timing of 17 species making northward migrations into eastern North America. We further assessed spring resource phenology as measured by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on nonbreeding ranges and en route. We tested the hypotheses that spring passage timing has advanced during the past two decades and that annual variability in passage timing into eastern North America is related to spring resource phenology on stationary nonbreeding ranges and during passage south of the Gulf. Further, we assessed whether annual variability in resource phenology south of the Gulf was a good indicator of the conditions that migrants encountered upon first landfall in eastern North America. We found no trend in migration timing for species that migrate from South America and annual variability in their passage timing was unrelated to environmental conditions in nonbreeding ranges or en route. Species that migrate from Central America and the Caribbean delayed arrival by 2 to 3 days over the 20-year period and arrived later during years when conditions were dryer in nonbreeding ranges and passage areas south of the Gulf. Further, year to year variability in spring resource phenology in nonbreeding ranges and passage areas south of the Gulf were not good indicators of resource phenology upon arrival in eastern North America. Therefore, despite the fact that many migrant species have been arriving increasingly earlier to breeding grounds, the passage timing of 17 species into eastern North America has either not changed or is slightly later, due to drying spring conditions in Central America and the Caribbean. Our results suggest that Nearctic–Neotropical migratory birds adjust the rate of migration primarily within eastern North America and, in light of warmer temperatures in the temperate zone and earlier arrival timing to breeding ranges, species that overwinter in Central America and the Caribbean may be increasing the speed of migration within eastern North America.

The Aegean in the Early 7th Millennium BC: Maritime Networks and Colonization.

PubMed

Horejs, B; Milić, B; Ostmann, F; Thanheiser, U; Weninger, B; Galik, A

The process of Near Eastern neolithization and its westward expansion from the core zone in the Levant and upper Mesopotamia has been broadly discussed in recent decades, and many models have been developed to describe the spread of early farming in terms of its timing, structure, geography and sociocultural impact. Until now, based on recent intensive investigations in northwestern and western Anatolia, the discussion has mainly centred on the importance of Anatolian inland routes for the westward spread of neolithization. This contribution focuses on the potential impact of east Mediterranean and Aegean maritime networks on the spread of the Neolithic lifestyle to the western edge of the Anatolian subcontinent in the earliest phases of sedentism. Employing the longue durée model and the concept of 'social memory', we will discuss the arrival of new groups via established maritime routes. The existence of maritime networks prior to the spread of farming is already indicated by the high mobility of Epipalaeolithic/Mesolithic groups exploring the Aegean and east Mediterranean seas, and reaching, for example, the Cyclades and Cyprus. Successful navigation by these early mobile groups across the open sea is attested by the distribution of Melian obsidian. The potential existence of an additional Pre-Pottery Neolithic (PPN) obsidian network that operated between Cappadocia/Cilicia and Cyprus further hints at the importance of maritime coastal trade. Since both the coastal and the high seas networks were apparently already well established in this early period, we may further assume appropriate knowledge of geographic routes, navigational technology and other aspects of successful seafaring. This Mesolithic/PPN maritime know-how package appears to have been used by later groups, in the early 7th millennium calBC, exploring the centre of the Anatolian Aegean coast, and in time establishing some of the first permanent settlements in that region. In the present paper, we link this background of newcomers to the western edge of Anatolia with new excavation results from Çukuriçi Höyük, which we have analysed in terms of subsistence strategies, materiality, technology and symbolism. Additionally, further detailed studies of nutrition and obsidian procurement shed light on the distinct maritime affinity of the early settlers in our case study, something that, in our view, can hardly be attributed to inland farming societies. We propose a maritime colonization in the 7th millennium via routes from the eastern Mediterranean to the eastern Aegean, based on previously developed sea networks. The pronounced maritime affinity of these farming and herding societies allows us to identify traces of earlier PPN concepts still embedded in the social-cultural memories of the newcomers and incorporated in a new local and regional Neolithic identity.

Timing is everything: priority effects alter community invasibility after disturbance.

PubMed

Symons, Celia C; Arnott, Shelley E

2014-02-01

Theory suggests that communities should be more open to the establishment of regional species following disturbance because disturbance may make more resources available to dispersers. However, after an initial period of high invasibility, growth of the resident community may lead to the monopolization of local resources and decreased probability of successful colonist establishment. During press disturbances (i.e., directional environmental change), it remains unclear what effect regional dispersal will have on local community structure if the establishment of later arriving species is affected by early arriving species (i.e., if priority effects are important). To determine the relationship between time-since-disturbance and invasibility, we conducted a fully factorial field mesocosm experiment that exposed tundra zooplankton communities to two emerging stressors - nutrient and salt addition, and manipulated the arrival timing of regional dispersers. Our results demonstrate that invasibility decreases with increasing time-since-disturbance as abundance (nutrient treatments) or species richness (salt treatments) increases in the resident community. Results suggest that the relative timing of dispersal and environmental change will modify the importance of priority effects in determining species composition after a press disturbance.

Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediciton System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandegriff, J.; Ho, G.; Plauger, J.

A system is being developed to predict the arrival times and maximum intensities of energetic storm particle (ESP) events at the earth. Measurements of particle flux values at L1 being made by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument aboard NASA's ACE spacecraft are made available in real-time by the NOAA Space Environment Center as 5 minute averages of several proton and electron energy channels. Past EPAM flux measurements can be used to train forecasting algorithms which then run on the real-time data. Up to 3 days before the arrival of the interplanetary shock associated with an ESP event, characteristic changes in the particle intensities (such as decreased spectral slope and increased overall flux level) are easily discernable. Once the onset of an event is detected, a neural net is used to forecast the arrival time and flux level for the event. We present results obtained with this technique for forecasting the largest of the ESP events detected by EPAM. Forecasting information will be made publicly available through http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/ACE/EPAM/, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab web site for the ACE/EPAM instrument.

Computer program modifications of Open-file report 82-1065; a comprehensive system for interpreting seismic-refraction and arrival-time data using interactive computer methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackermann, Hans D.; Pankratz, Leroy W.; Dansereau, Danny A.

1983-01-01

The computer programs published in Open-File Report 82-1065, A comprehensive system for interpreting seismic-refraction arrival-time data using interactive computer methods (Ackermann, Pankratz, and Dansereau, 1982), have been modified to run on a mini-computer. The new version uses approximately 1/10 of the memory of the initial version, is more efficient and gives the same results.

Reconstructing Seasonal Range Expansion of the Tropical Butterfly, Heliconius charithonia, into Texas Using Historical Records

PubMed Central

Cardoso, Márcio Zikán

2010-01-01

While butterfly responses to climate change are well studied, detailed analyses of the seasonal dynamics of range expansion are few. Therefore, the seasonal range expansion of the butterfly Heliconius charithonia L. (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) was analyzed using a database of sightings and collection records dating from 1884 to 1992 from Texas. First and last sightings for each year were noted, and residency time calculated, for each collection locality. To test whether sighting dates were a consequence of distance from source (defined as the southernmost location of permanent residence), the distance between source and other locations was calculated. Additionally, consistent directional change over time of arrival dates was tested in a well-sampled area (San Antonio). Also, correlations between temperature, rainfall, and butterfly distribution were tested to determine whether butterfly sightings were influenced by climate. Both arrival date and residency interval were influenced by distance from source: butterflies arrived later and residency time was shorter at more distant locations. Butterfly occurrence was correlated with temperature but not rainfall. Residency time was also correlated with temperature but not rainfall. Since temperature follows a north-south gradient this may explain the inverse relationship between residency and distance from entry point. No long-term directional change in arrival dates was found in San Antonio. The biological meaning of these findings is discussed suggesting that naturalist notes can be a useful tool in reconstructing spatial dynamics. PMID:20672989

The effect of thallus spreading method on productivity of Gracilaria sp. culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayatulbaroroh, R.; Nurhudah, M.; Edy, M. H.; Suharyadi

2018-04-01

The aim of this study was to determine growth of (Gracilaria sp.) with different spreading time of thallus. The study was conducted from March to April 2017 in pond located in Domas Village, Serang Region, Banten Province. The experiment followed completely randomized design with the treatment of different time on spreading of seaweed thallus during the culture period (45 days). Treatments were without spreading (as control), spreading every 2 weeks, and spreading every 3 weeks. The observed variables were weight of seaweed thallus and several water quality parameters. Analysis of seaweed weight used ANOVA test and Tukey HSD test. The results showed that the spread seaweed thallus had a significant effect on weight gain in 0.05 level. It used 100 gram Gracilaria sp. as initial weight, treatment without spreading thallus produced 508 gram, spreading every 2 weeks produced 906 gram and spreading every 3 weeks produced 790 gram. Based on the weight gain of thallus, seaweed culture by spreading thallus every 3 weeks and 2 weeks seem to be able to increase productivity by 56 % and 78 %, respectively.

Interaction Between Strategic and Local Traffic Flow Controls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grabbe, Son; Sridhar, Banavar; Mukherjee, Avijit; Morando, Alexander

2010-01-01

The loosely coordinated sets of traffic flow management initiatives that are operationally implemented at the national- and local-levels have the potential to under, over, and inconsistently control flights. This study is designed to explore these interactions through fast-time simulations with an emphasis on identifying inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays. Two operationally derived scenarios were considered in which flights arriving into the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport were first controlled at the national-level, either with a Ground Delay Program or a playbook reroute. These flights were subsequently controlled at the local level. The Traffic Management Advisor assigned them arrival scheduling delays. For the Ground Delay Program scenarios, between 51% and 53% of all arrivals experience both pre-departure delays from the Ground Delay Program and arrival scheduling delays from the Traffic Management Advisor. Of the subset of flights that received multiple delays, between 5.7% and 6.4% of the internal departures were first assigned a pre-departure delay by the Ground Delay Program, followed by a second pre-departure delay as a result of the arrival scheduling. For the playbook reroute scenario, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport arrivals were first assigned pre-departure reroutes based on the MW_2_DALLAS playbook plan, and were subsequently assigned arrival scheduling delays by the Traffic Management Advisor. Since the airport was operating well below capacity when the playbook reroute was in effect, only 7% of the arrivals were observed to receive both rerouting and arrival scheduling delays. Findings from these initial experiments confirm field observations that Ground Delay Programs operated in conjunction with arrival scheduling can result in inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays.

Pattern of spread and prognosis in lower limb-onset ALS

PubMed Central

TURNER, MARTIN R.; BROCKINGTON, ALICE; SCABER, JAKUB; HOLLINGER, HANNAH; MARSDEN, RACHAEL; SHAW, PAMELA J.; TALBOT, KEVIN

2011-01-01

Our objective was to establish the pattern of spread in lower limb-onset ALS (contra- versus ipsi-lateral) and its contribution to prognosis within a multivariate model. Pattern of spread was established in 109 sporadic ALS patients with lower limb-onset, prospectively recorded in Oxford and Sheffield tertiary clinics from 2001 to 2008. Survival analysis was by univariate Kaplan-Meier log-rank and multivariate Cox proportional hazards. Variables studied were time to next limb progression, site of next progression, age at symptom onset, gender, diagnostic latency and use of riluzole. Initial progression was either to the contralateral leg (76%) or ipsilateral arm (24%). Factors independently affecting survival were time to next limb progression, age at symptom onset, and diagnostic latency. Time to progression as a prognostic factor was independent of initial direction of spread. In a regression analysis of the deceased, overall survival from symptom onset approximated to two years plus the time interval for initial spread. In conclusion, rate of progression in lower limb-onset ALS is not influenced by whether initial spread is to the contralateral limb or ipsilateral arm. The time interval to this initial spread is a powerful factor in predicting overall survival, and could be used to facilitate decision-making and effective care planning. PMID:20001488

Arrival of Sulfate Aerosols from Iceland's Laki Eruption (1783-1784 AD) to the Greenland Ice Sheet: A Critical Ice Core Dating Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, L.; Mosley-Thompson, E.

2006-12-01

The Laki (Iceland) volcanic event was a basaltic flood lava eruption lasting from June 8, 1783 to February 7, 1784. The timing of the arrival of the sulfate aerosols and volcanic fragments to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) remains uncertain, but is important to confirm as the highly conductive sulfate layer has been consistently used as a time stratigraphic marker (1783 AD) in ice cores collected across Greenland. However, in the GISP2 ice core a few glass shards were found within the annual layer lying just below that containing the sulfate aerosols from Laki suggesting that the ash arrived first, in 1783, while the aerosols arrived the following year [Fiacco et al., 1994]. Additional published ice core results have neither confirmed nor refuted this observation. We have taken advantage of the accurately dated, high temporal resolution ice cores collected by PARCA (Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment) to (1) determine more precisely the timing of the arrival of Laki's sulfate aerosols and (2) assess the spatial variability of the excess sulfate contributed by Laki to the GIS. Our results indicate that the sulfate emitted from the Laki eruption most likely arrived on the GIS in the late summer or early fall of 1783 AD. This is also supported by contemporary weather logs and official reports of the appearance of Laki haze [Thordarson and Self, 2003]. The flux of Laki sulfate varies significantly over the GIS, largely as a function of the regional annual accumulation rate. Laki sulfate aerosols also arrived as a single pulse in most of the PARCA cores, suggesting that only a small fraction of the gases emitted from Laki reached the stratosphere. References: Fiacco, R.J.,et al., Atmospheric aerosol loading and transport due to the 1783-84 Laki eruption in Iceland, interpreted from ash particles and acidity in the GISP2 ice core, Quat. Res., 42, 231-240, 1994. Thordarson, T, and S. Self, Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783-1784 Laki eruption: A review and reassessment, J. Geophy. Res., 108, 4011-4039, 2003.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Draelos, Timothy J.; Ballard, Sanford; Young, Christopher J.

Given a set of observations within a specified time window, a fitness value is calculated at each grid node by summing station-specific conditional fitness values. Assuming each observation was generated by a refracted P wave, these values are proportional to the conditional probabilities that each observation was generated by a seismic event at the grid node. The node with highest fitness value is accepted as a hypothetical event location, subject to some minimal fitness value, and all arrivals within a longer time window consistent with that event are associated with it. During the association step, a variety of different phasesmore » are considered. In addition, once associated with an event, an arrival is removed from further consideration. While unassociated arrivals remain, the search for other events is repeated until none are identified.« less

Observation of a Rayleigh Wave Induced by Infrasonic Elephant Vocalizations: a Possible Communication Mode?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunther, R.; O'Connell-Rodwell, C. E.; Klemperer, S.; Rodwell, T. C.; Haines, S.; Goldman, M.; Evans, J. R.

2003-12-01

A variety of animals such as arthropods, amphibians, reptiles, fish and rodents communicate by creating and sensing ground vibrations rather than, or in addition to, sound waves. There is evidence that this may be the case for elephants as well. We set out to characterize the Rayleigh wave generated by near-source coupling during elephant low frequency rumble vocalizations (25 Hz lasting 3-7 seconds), using standard engineering-scale seismology equipment. We used a 60-channel GeometricsT seismograph to record data from vertical and horizontal geophones and from microphones, placed along a 168-m cable near Salinas, CA. Seismic wave-speed for body waves (1400 m/s) and surface waves (440 m/s) and the air-wave velocity (340 m/s) were established using a sledgehammer source. Trained elephants vocalized on command at one end of our seismic recording spread. The vocalization was strongest at 25 to 28 Hz (with strong higher harmonics), with a duration of 3 to 4 seconds, and repeated multiple times with separations of 2 to 5 seconds. Unlike an explosive seismic source, the duration of the elephant vocalization is tens of times longer than the characteristic period of the source, lasting far longer than the total propagation time along our seismic recording spread (less than 500 ms), so that different propagating modes cannot be separated by different arrival times. Unlike a VibroseisTM sweep, the elephant rumble is relatively monotonic with no characteristic onset, ruling out the use of deconvolution techniques to recognize the signals. Using a semblance technique applied to linear moveouts on narrow-bandpass-filtered data, coupled with forward modeling, we demonstrate that the complex waves observed are the interference of an air wave and a Rayleigh wave traveling at the appropriate velocities. The Rayleigh wave appears to be generated at or close to the elephant, either by coupling through the elephant's body or through the air near the body to the ground. In our experiments, the amplitudes of both the elephant-coupled Rayleigh wave and the elephant-driven airwave had decayed to almost ambient noise levels at the end of our 168-m-long recording spread. This was most likely due to the high ambient-noise levels during our experiment. Free-ranging African elephants have been shown to respond to low-frequency calls of other elephants at ranges of 2 km with an ideal outer limit of 10 km. Because a surface wave decays at only 1/r, we speculate that wild elephants may detect the Rayleigh waves of other elephants via bone conduction or somatosensory reception or both, and hence may communicate at greater distances than possible using infrasonic calls transmitted through the atmosphere.

Arrival-time picking method based on approximate negentropy for microseismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yue; Ni, Zhuo; Tian, Yanan

2018-05-01

Accurate and dependable picking of the first arrival time for microseismic data is an important part in microseismic monitoring, which directly affects analysis results of post-processing. This paper presents a new method based on approximate negentropy (AN) theory for microseismic arrival time picking in condition of much lower signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). According to the differences in information characteristics between microseismic data and random noise, an appropriate approximation of negentropy function is selected to minimize the effect of SNR. At the same time, a weighted function of the differences between maximum and minimum value of AN spectrum curve is designed to obtain a proper threshold function. In this way, the region of signal and noise is distinguished to pick the first arrival time accurately. To demonstrate the effectiveness of AN method, we make many experiments on a series of synthetic data with different SNR from -1 dB to -12 dB and compare it with previously published Akaike information criterion (AIC) and short/long time average ratio (STA/LTA) methods. Experimental results indicate that these three methods can achieve well picking effect when SNR is from -1 dB to -8 dB. However, when SNR is as low as -8 dB to -12 dB, the proposed AN method yields more accurate and stable picking result than AIC and STA/LTA methods. Furthermore, the application results of real three-component microseismic data also show that the new method is superior to the other two methods in accuracy and stability.

Overall ED efficiency is associated with decreased time to percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher W; Sonnad, Seema S; Augustine, James J; Reese, Charles L

2014-10-01

Performance of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) within 90 minutes of hospital arrival for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients is a commonly cited clinical quality measure. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services use this measure to adjust hospital reimbursement via the Value-Based Purchasing Program. This study investigated the relationship between hospital performance on this quality measure and emergency department (ED) operational efficiency. Hospital-level data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services on PCI quality measure performance was linked to information on operational performance from 272 US EDs obtained from the Emergency Department Benchmarking Alliance annual operations survey. Standard metrics of ED size, acuity, and efficiency were compared across hospitals grouped by performance on the door-to-balloon time quality measure. Mean hospital performance on the 90-minute arrival to PCI measure was 94.0% (range, 42-100). Among hospitals failing to achieve the door-to-balloon time performance standard, median ED length of stay was 209 minutes, compared with 173 minutes among those hospitals meeting the benchmark standard (P < .001). Similarly, median time from ED patient arrival to physician evaluation was 39 minutes for hospitals below the performance standard and 23 minutes for hospitals at the benchmark standard (P < .001). Markers of ED size and acuity, including annual patient volume, admission rate, and the percentage of patients arriving via ambulance did not vary with door-to-balloon time. Better performance on measures associated with ED efficiency is associated with more timely PCI performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Murres, capelin and ocean climate: Inter-annual associations across a decadal shift

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regular, P.M.; Shuhood, F.; Power, T.; Montevecchi, W.A.; Robertson, G.J.; Ballam, D.; Piatt, John F.; Nakashima, B.

2009-01-01

To ensure energy demands for reproduction are met, it is essential that marine birds breed during periods of peak food availability. We examined associations of the breeding chronology of common murres (Uria aalge) with the timing of the inshore arrival of their primary prey, capelin (Mallotus villosus) from 1980 to 2006 across a period of pervasive change in the Northwest Atlantic ecosystem. We also assessed the influence of ocean temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; an index of winter climate and oceanography) on these interactions. We found a lagged linear relationship between variations in murre breeding chronology and the timing of capelin arrival in the previous year. On a decadal level, we found a non-linear threshold relationship between ocean temperature and the timing of capelin arrival and murre breeding. Centennially anomalous cold water temperatures in 1991 generated a marked shift in the timing of capelin spawning inshore and murre breeding, delaying both by more than 2 weeks. By the mid-1990s, ocean temperatures returned to pre-perturbation levels, whereas the temporal breeding responses of capelin and murres were delayed for a decade or more. Oceanographic conditions (temperature, NAO) were poor predictors of the timing of capelin arrival inshore in the current year compared to the previous one. Our findings suggest that knowledge of the timing of capelin availability in the previous year provides a robust cue for the long-lived murres, allowing them to achieve temporal overlap between breeding and peak capelin availability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Association of hematologic variables and castration status at the time of arrival at a research facility with the risk of bovine respiratory disease in beef calves.

PubMed

Richeson, John T; Pinedo, Pablo J; Kegley, Elizabeth B; Powell, Jeremy G; Gadberry, M Shane; Beck, Paul A; Falkenberg, Shollie M

2013-10-01

To determine the association of CBC variables and castration status at the time of arrival at a research facility with the risk of development of bovine respiratory disease (BRD). Retrospective cohort study. 1,179 crossbred beef bull (n = 588) and steer (591) calves included in 4 experiments at 2 University of Arkansas research facilities. Calves underwent processing and treatments in accordance with the experiment in which they were enrolled. Castration status and values of CBC variables were determined at the time of arrival at the facilities. Calves were monitored to detect signs of BRD during a 42-day period. The areas under the receiving operator characteristic curves for CBC variables with significant contrast test results ranged from 0.51 (neutrophil count) to 0.67 (eosinophil count), indicating they were limited predictors of BRD in calves. The only CBC variables that had significant associations with BRD in calves as determined via multivariable logistic regression analysis were eosinophil and RBC counts. The odds of BRD for bulls were 3.32 times the odds of BRD for steers. Results of this study indicated that low eosinophil and high RBC counts in blood samples may be useful for identification of calves with a high risk for development of BRD. Further research may be warranted to validate these variables for prediction of BRD in calves. Calves that were bulls at the time of arrival had a higher risk of BRD, versus calves that were steers at that time.

Country of infection among HIV-infected patients born abroad living in French Guiana.

PubMed

Nacher, Mathieu; Adriouch, Leila; Van Melle, Astrid; Parriault, Marie-Claire; Adenis, Antoine; Couppié, Pierre

2018-01-01

Over 75% of patients in the HIV cohort in French Guiana are of foreign origin. Our objective was to estimate what proportion of the migrant population of HIV-infected patients in Cayenne had been infected in French Guiana. We included patients of known foreign origin who were followed in Cayenne, for whom the year of arrival in French Guiana was known and the initial CD4 count at the time of diagnosis was available. The time between seroconversion and time at diagnosis was estimated using the formula [square root (CD4 at seroconversion)-square root(CD4 at HIV diagnosis)] / slope of CD4 decline.CD4 counts at the time of infection and the slope were computed in an age and ethnicity-dependent variable. The median estimated time between infection and diagnosis was 4.5 years (IQR = 0.2-9.2). Overall, using a median estimate of CD4 count at the time of infection, it was estimated that 53.2% (95% CI = 48.3-58%) of HIV infected foreign patients had acquired HIV after having arrived in French Guiana. Patients having arrived in French Guiana before and during the 1990s and those receiving their HIV diagnosis before 2010 were more likely to have been infected in French Guiana. Contrary to widespread belief suggesting that most migrants are already HIV-infected when they arrive in French Guiana, a large proportion of foreign HIV patients seem acquire the virus in French Guiana.There is still much to do in terms of primary prevention and testing among migrants.

Analysis of sex differences in preadmission management of ST-segment elevation (STEMI) myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Greenberg, Marna Rayl; Miller, Andrew C; Mackenzie, Richard S; Richardson, David M; Ahnert, Amy M; Sclafani, Mia J; Jozefick, Jennifer L; Goyke, Terrence E; Rupp, Valerie A; Burmeister, David B

2012-10-01

Many reports suggest gender disparity in cardiac care as a contributor to the increased mortality among women with heart disease. We sought to identify gender differences in the management of Myocardial Infarction (MI) Alert-activated ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients that may have resulted from prehospital initiation. A retrospective database was created for MI Alert STEMI patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) of an academic community hospital with 74,000 annual visits from April 2000 through December 2008. Included were patients meeting criteria for an MI Alert (an institutional clinical practice guideline designed to expedite cardiac catheterization for STEMI patients). Data points (before and after initiation of a prehospital alert protocol) were compared and used as markers of therapy: time to ECG, receiving β-blockers, and time to the catheterization laboratory (cath lab). Differences in categorical variables by patient sex were assessed using the χ(2) test. Medians were estimated as the measure of central tendency. Quantile regression models were used to assess differences in median times between subgroups. A total of 1231 MI Alert charts were identified and analyzed. The majority of the study population were male (70%), arrived at the ED via ambulance (60.1%), and were taking a β-blocker (67.8%) or aspirin (91.6%) at the time of the ED admission. Female patients were more likely than male patients to arrive at the ED via ambulance (65.9% vs 57.6%, respectively; P = 0.014). The median age of female patients was 68 years, whereas male patients were significantly younger (median age, 59 years; P < 0.001). The proportion of patients currently taking a β-blocker or low-dose aspirin did not vary by gender. Overall, 78.2% of the MI Alert patients arriving at the ED were MI2 (alert initiated by ED physician), and this did not vary by gender (P = 0.33). A total of 1064 MI Alert patients went to the cath lab: 766 male patients (88.9%) and 298 female patients (80.8%). Overall, the median time to cath lab arrival was 79 minutes for men and 81 minutes for women (P = 0.38). Overall, the median time to cath lab arrival significantly decreased from MI1 to MI3, (P(trend) < 0.001). For prehospital-initiated alerts (MI3), the median time to cath lab arrival was the same for men and women (64 minutes; P = 1.0). For hospital-initiated alerts, time to cath lab arrival was 82 minutes for male patients and 84 minutes for female patients (P = 0.38). Prehospital activation of the process decreased the time to the cath lab by 19 minutes (P < 0.001; 95% CI, 13.2-24.8). No significant gender differences were apparent in the STEMI patients analyzed, whether the MI Alert was initiated in the ED or prehospital initiated. Initiating prehospital-based alerts significantly decreased the time to the cath lab. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Enhancing outpatient clinics management software by reducing patients' waiting time.

PubMed

Almomani, Iman; AlSarheed, Ahlam

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) gives great attention to improving the quality of services provided by health care sectors including outpatient clinics. One of the main drawbacks in outpatient clinics is long waiting time for patients-which affects the level of patient satisfaction and the quality of services. This article addresses this problem by studying the Outpatient Management Software (OMS) and proposing solutions to reduce waiting times. Many hospitals around the world apply solutions to overcome the problem of long waiting times in outpatient clinics such as hospitals in the USA, China, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan. These clinics have succeeded in reducing wait times by 15%, 78%, 60% and 50%, respectively. Such solutions depend mainly on adding more human resources or changing some business or management policies. The solutions presented in this article reduce waiting times by enhancing the software used to manage outpatient clinics services. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been used to understand current OMS and examine level of patient's satisfaction. Five main problems that may cause high or unmeasured waiting time have been identified: appointment type, ticket numbering, doctor late arrival, early arriving patient and patients' distribution list. These problems have been mapped to the corresponding OMS components. Solutions to the above problems have been introduced and evaluated analytically or by simulation experiments. Evaluation of the results shows a reduction in patient waiting time. When late doctor arrival issues are solved, this can reduce the clinic service time by up to 20%. However, solutions for early arriving patients reduces 53.3% of vital time, 20% of the clinic time and overall 30.3% of the total waiting time. Finally, well patient-distribution lists make improvements by 54.2%. Improvements introduced to the patients' waiting time will consequently affect patients' satisfaction and improve the quality of health care services. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Event ambiguity fuels the effective spread of rumors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Zhang, Yi

2015-08-01

In this paper, a new rumor spreading model which quantifies a specific rumor spreading feature is proposed. The specific feature focused on is the important role the event ambiguity plays in the rumor spreading process. To study the impact of this event ambiguity on the spread of rumors, the probability p(t) that an individual becomes a rumor spreader from an initially unaware person at time t is built. p(t) reflects the extent of event ambiguity, and a parameter c of p(t) is used to measure the speed at which the event moves from ambiguity to confirmation. At the same time, a principle is given to decide on the correct value for parameter c A rumor spreading model is then developed with this function added as a parameter to the traditional model. Then, several rumor spreading model simulations are conducted with different values for c on both regular networks and ER random networks. The simulation results indicate that a rumor spreads faster and more broadly when c is smaller. This shows that if events are ambiguous over a longer time, rumor spreading appears to be more effective, and is influenced more significantly by parameter c in a random network than in a regular network. We then determine parameters of this model through data fitting of the missing Malaysian plane, and apply this model to an analysis of the missing Malaysian plane. The simulation results demonstrate that the most critical time for authorities to control rumor spreading is in the early stages of a critical event.

Wild waterfowl migration and domestic duck density shape the epidemiology of highly pathogenic H5N8 influenza in the Republic of Korea

PubMed Central

Hill, Sarah C.; Lee, Youn-Jeong; Song, Byung-Min; Kang, Hyun-Mi; Lee, Eun-Kyoung; Hanna, Amanda; Gilbert, Marius; Brown, Ian H.; Pybus, Oliver G.

2015-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses threaten human and animal health yet their emergence is poorly understood, partly because sampling of the HPAI Asian-origin H5N1 lineage immediately after its identification in 1996 was comparatively sparse. The discovery of a novel H5N8 virus in 2013 provides a new opportunity to investigate HPAI emergence in greater detail. Here we investigate the origin and transmission of H5N8 in the Republic of Korea, the second country to report the new strain. We reconstruct viral spread using phylogeographic methods and interpret the results in the context of ecological data on poultry density, overwintering wild bird numbers, and bird migration patterns. Our results indicate that wild waterfowl migration and domestic duck density were important to H5N8 epidemiology. Specifically, we infer that H5N8 entered the Republic of Korea via Jeonbuk province, then spread rapidly among western provinces where densities of overwintering waterfowl and domestic ducks are higher, yet rarely persisted in eastern regions. The common ancestor of H5N8 in the Republic of Korea was estimated to have arrived during the peak of inward migration of overwintering birds. Recent virus isolations likely represent re-introductions via bird migration from an as-yet unsampled reservoir. Based on the limited data from outside the Republic of Korea, our data suggest that H5N8 may have entered Europe at least twice, and Asia at least three times from this reservoir, most likely carried by wild migrating birds. PMID:26079277

Natural-product-based chromenes as a novel class of potential termiticides.

PubMed

Meepagala, Kumudini M; Osbrink, Weste; Burandt, Charles; Lax, Alan; Duke, Stephen O

2011-11-01

Among the termite infestations in the United States, the Formosan subterranean termite, Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae), is considered to be the most devastating termite pest. This pest most likely invaded North America as a result of the disembarkation of wooden military cargo at the port of New Orleans that arrived from Asia during and after World War II. It has now spread over other states, including Texas, Florida, South Carolina and California. Devastation caused by C. formosanus in North America has been estimated to cost $ US 1 billion a year. Over the past decades, organochlorines and organophosphates, the two prominent classes of termite control agents, have been banned owing to environmental and human health concerns. At the present time, phenylpyrazoles, pyrethroids, chloronicotinyls and pyrroles are being used as termite control agents. Mammalian toxicity and seeping of these compounds into groundwater are some of the drawbacks associated with these treatments. The instruction for the application of these termiticides indicate ground water advisory. Hence, with the increasing spread of termite infestation there is an increased need to discover effective, environmentally friendly and safe termite control agents with minimal mammalian toxicity. Chromene analogs derived from a natural-product-based chromene amide isolated from Amyris texana were tested in a collaborative discovery program for effective, environmentally friendly termite control agents. Several chromene derivatives were synthesized and characterized as a novel class of potential termiticides, followed by bioassays. These compounds exhibited significantly higher mortalities compared with untreated controls in laboratory bioassays. Chromene derivatives have been shown to be a potential novel class of termiticides against Formosan subterranean termites. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

Speleothem evidence for the greening of the Sahara and its implications for the early human dispersal out of sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Shenawy, Mohammed I.; Kim, Sang-Tae; Schwarcz, Henry P.; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.

2018-05-01

Although there is a consensus that there were wet periods (greening events) in the Sahara in the past, the spatial extent and the timing of these greening events are still in dispute, yet critical to our understanding of the early human dispersal out of Africa. Our U-series dates of speleothems from the Northeastern Sahara (Wadi Sannur cave, Egypt) reveal that the periods of speleothem growth were brief and restricted to the interglacial Marine Isotope Stages MIS 5.5, MIS 7.3, and the early MIS 9 with a remarkable absence of the Holocene deposition of speleothems. These growth periods of Wadi Sannur cave speleothems correspond to periods of high rainfall and spread of vegetation (green Sahara). Distinct low δ18O values of speleothems indicate a distal moisture source that we interpret to be the Atlantic Ocean. These two lines of evidence from the Wadi Sannur speleothems thus suggest that maximal northward shifts in the West African monsoon system occurred during the growth periods of the speleothems, leading to greening of the Sahara, facilitating human migration into Eurasia. The periods of speleothem growth at Wadi Sannur cave are contemporaneous with important archeological events: (1) the earliest occurrence of the Middle Stone Age assemblages and Homo sapiens in North Africa (Jebel Irhoud), suggesting wide spread of greening conditions over the East-West transect of the Sahara, (2) the sharp technological break between the Acheulo-Yabrudian and the Mousterian industries, and (3) the arrival of Homo sapiens in Levant, indicating a key role of the Sahara route in early human dispersal out of Africa.

Wild waterfowl migration and domestic duck density shape the epidemiology of highly pathogenic H5N8 influenza in the Republic of Korea.

PubMed

Hill, Sarah C; Lee, Youn-Jeong; Song, Byung-Min; Kang, Hyun-Mi; Lee, Eun-Kyoung; Hanna, Amanda; Gilbert, Marius; Brown, Ian H; Pybus, Oliver G

2015-08-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses threaten human and animal health yet their emergence is poorly understood, partly because sampling of the HPAI Asian-origin H5N1 lineage immediately after its identification in 1996 was comparatively sparse. The discovery of a novel H5N8 virus in 2013 provides a new opportunity to investigate HPAI emergence in greater detail. Here we investigate the origin and transmission of H5N8 in the Republic of Korea, the second country to report the new strain. We reconstruct viral spread using phylogeographic methods and interpret the results in the context of ecological data on poultry density, overwintering wild bird numbers, and bird migration patterns. Our results indicate that wild waterfowl migration and domestic duck density were important to H5N8 epidemiology. Specifically, we infer that H5N8 entered the Republic of Korea via Jeonbuk province, then spread rapidly among western provinces where densities of overwintering waterfowl and domestic ducks are higher, yet rarely persisted in eastern regions. The common ancestor of H5N8 in the Republic of Korea was estimated to have arrived during the peak of inward migration of overwintering birds. Recent virus isolations likely represent re-introductions via bird migration from an as-yet unsampled reservoir. Based on the limited data from outside the Republic of Korea, our data suggest that H5N8 may have entered Europe at least twice, and Asia at least three times from this reservoir, most likely carried by wild migrating birds. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Arboviruses also have an American dream].

PubMed

Rodhain, F

2017-08-01

Some arboviruses that originated in the Old World have been introduced by humans into the American continent. The first of them was the yellow fever virus, coming from the West African coast with slaves in the 17th-19th centuries, followed by dengue viruses, which were always prevalent within the Americas. Next was theWest Nile virus, introduced in New York in 1999, that spread in only a few years over the whole continent. Then, Chikungunya virus arrived on Saint Martin Island in 2013 after its outbreak in Polynesia; it is now widespread in the Caribbean Islands and on the American continent from the United States to Brazil. Finally, Zika virus, already active in Asia and in the South Pacific region, was introduced in Brazil and spread between the southern part of United States and south Brazil. These unexpected emergences are the consequence of the generalization of transoceanic trading; so, it is humans who are truly responsible for such transportation of viruses from the African and Asian continents. The mechanisms of virus establishment in unusual ecosystems have to be analyzed in order to understand the conditions for the circulation of the viruses, which supposes an adaptation to new hosts and vectors that are sometimes local species (like Culex vectors of West Nile virus) but mainly previously introduced mosquitoes (like Aedes aegypti and/or Aedes albopictus). Over time, all these vectors developed a strong anthropophily and, most of them, a remarkable adaptation to urban environment; hence, these arboviruses can disseminate both in rural and urban context. This type of arboviral emergences will certainly continue in the following years and we must imperatively develop preventive strategies by detecting virus mutations with capacity for emergence, enhancing the sensibility and rapidity of epidemiological surveillance, and becoming ready to face such events that cause a truly international health crisis.

PDGF-regulated rab4-dependent recycling of alphavbeta3 integrin from early endosomes is necessary for cell adhesion and spreading.

PubMed

Roberts, M; Barry, S; Woods, A; van der Sluijs, P; Norman, J

2001-09-18

It has been postulated that the regulation of integrin vesicular traffic facilitates cell migration by internalizing integrins at the rear of the cell and transporting them forward within vesicles for exocytosis at the leading edge to form new contacts with the extracellular matrix. The rab family of GTPases control key targeting events in the endo/exocytic pathway; therefore, these GTPases may be involved in the regulation of cell-matrix contact assembly. The endo/exocytic cycle of alphavbeta3 and alpha5beta1 integrins was studied using mouse 3T3 fibroblast cell lines. In serum-starved cells, internalized integrins were transported through rab4-positive, early endosomes and arrived at the rab11-positive, perinuclear recycling compartment approximately 30 min after endocytosis. From the recycling compartment, integrins were recycled to the plasma membrane in a rab11-dependent fashion. Following treatment with PDGF, alphavbeta3 integrin, but not alpha5beta1, was rapidly recycled directly back to the plasma membrane from the early endosomes via a rab4-dependent mechanism without the involvement of rab11. This rapid recycling pathway directed alphavbeta3 to numerous small puncta distributed evenly across the dorsal surface of the cell, and the integrin only became localized into focal complexes at later times following PDGF addition. Interestingly, inhibition of PDGF-stimulated alphavbeta3 recycling using dominant-negative rab4 mutants compromised cell adhesion and spreading on vitronectin (a ligand for alphavbeta3), but adhesion to fibronectin (a ligand for alpha5beta1 and alphavbeta3) was unchanged. We propose that growth factor-regulated, rab4-dependent recycling of alphavbeta3 integrin from early endosomes to the plasma membrane is a critical upstream event in the assembly of cell-matrix contacts.

Market reaction to a bid-ask spread change: A power-law relaxation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponzi, Adam; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2009-07-01

We study the relaxation dynamics of the bid-ask spread and of the midprice after a sudden variation of the spread in a double auction financial market. We find that the spread decays as a power law to its normal value. We measure the price reversion dynamics and the permanent impact, i.e., the long-time effect on price, of a generic event altering the spread and we find an approximately linear relation between immediate and permanent impact. We hypothesize that the power-law decay of the spread is a consequence of the strategic limit order placement of liquidity providers. We support this hypothesis by investigating several quantities, such as order placement rates and distribution of prices and times of submitted orders, which affect the decay of the spread.

Plague: Modern Preventive Measures in Ships and Ports: (Section of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology).

PubMed

White, C F

1935-03-01

Maritime quarantine, introduced in the fourteenth century in an endeavour to prevent the spread of plague. Though the system failed to achieve its object, and was expensive and restrictive to sea-borne commerce, it survived for over 500 years, presumably because, in the absence of knowledge of the aetiology of plague, no method of procedure more likely to be successful could be devised. This country acknowledged the failure of quarantine as a preventive measure in the middle of last century, and substituted the medical inspection of ships on arrival, though the last Quarantine Act was not repealed till 1896. Nevertheless it was not till the discovery of the rôle of the rat and the rat-flea in the spread of plague that it was possible to establish plague-preventive measures on a sound scientific basis.It is now recognized that a Port Health Authority must not only take steps to detect plague, human or rodent, afloat or ashore, at the earliest possible moment, but must eliminate conditions in ships and in shore premises which are conducive to the development of an epizoötic. Though here, and in other countries with an enlightened Public Health Administration, practice has long been ahead of legislation, the International Sanitary Convention of 1926 has now established throughout the world a large measure of uniformity in measures designed to prevent the spread of the more dangerous epidemic diseases by overseas trade, and the Port Sanitary Regulations 1933 have brought quarantine legislation in this country up to date.For the detection of plague every ship arriving from a plague-infected port is medically inspected on arrival, but even if there is no evidence of plague-infection on board, such ships are examined daily by a rat-officer until the discharge of cargo is complete. Dead rats found and live rats trapped are bacteriologically examined. If a rat is reported to be infected the vessel is fumigated at once. The discharge of cargo is then continued under supervision, and when the ship is empty she is fumigated again. Shore premises, particularly those in the immediate vicinity of the berths of ships from plague-infected ports, are systematically searched for dead rats, and live rats are trapped. If evidence of plague-infection is found, energetic measures of rat destruction are at once instituted over a wide area.The International Sanitary Convention requires all foreign-going ships to be inspected every six months as to the number of rats on board. If a ship is not so maintained as to keep the rat population down to a minimum she must be deratized.If, after deratization, ships are to remain free from rats, they must be rat-proofed. Similarly ashore, rat-proofing is the only rat-repressive measure of permanent value.The measures usually adopted to prevent the passage of rats between ships and shore are of limited value.Finally, a rat-flea survey is of value in estimating the susceptibility of a port to infection.

Plague: Modern Preventive Measures in Ships and Ports

PubMed Central

White, C. F.

1935-01-01

Maritime quarantine, introduced in the fourteenth century in an endeavour to prevent the spread of plague. Though the system failed to achieve its object, and was expensive and restrictive to sea-borne commerce, it survived for over 500 years, presumably because, in the absence of knowledge of the ætiology of plague, no method of procedure more likely to be successful could be devised. This country acknowledged the failure of quarantine as a preventive measure in the middle of last century, and substituted the medical inspection of ships on arrival, though the last Quarantine Act was not repealed till 1896. Nevertheless it was not till the discovery of the rôle of the rat and the rat-flea in the spread of plague that it was possible to establish plague-preventive measures on a sound scientific basis. It is now recognized that a Port Health Authority must not only take steps to detect plague, human or rodent, afloat or ashore, at the earliest possible moment, but must eliminate conditions in ships and in shore premises which are conducive to the development of an epizoötic. Though here, and in other countries with an enlightened Public Health Administration, practice has long been ahead of legislation, the International Sanitary Convention of 1926 has now established throughout the world a large measure of uniformity in measures designed to prevent the spread of the more dangerous epidemic diseases by overseas trade, and the Port Sanitary Regulations 1933 have brought quarantine legislation in this country up to date. For the detection of plague every ship arriving from a plague-infected port is medically inspected on arrival, but even if there is no evidence of plague-infection on board, such ships are examined daily by a rat-officer until the discharge of cargo is complete. Dead rats found and live rats trapped are bacteriologically examined. If a rat is reported to be infected the vessel is fumigated at once. The discharge of cargo is then continued under supervision, and when the ship is empty she is fumigated again. Shore premises, particularly those in the immediate vicinity of the berths of ships from plague-infected ports, are systematically searched for dead rats, and live rats are trapped. If evidence of plague-infection is found, energetic measures of rat destruction are at once instituted over a wide area. The International Sanitary Convention requires all foreign-going ships to be inspected every six months as to the number of rats on board. If a ship is not so maintained as to keep the rat population down to a minimum she must be deratized. If, after deratization, ships are to remain free from rats, they must be rat-proofed. Similarly ashore, rat-proofing is the only rat-repressive measure of permanent value. The measures usually adopted to prevent the passage of rats between ships and shore are of limited value. Finally, a rat-flea survey is of value in estimating the susceptibility of a port to infection. PMID:19990226

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com; Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024; Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel onmore » the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.« less

Space--time patterns during the establishmentof a nonindigenous species

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin

2007-01-01

Increasing rates of global trade and travel have the invariable consequence of an increase in the likelihood of nonindigenous species arrival, and some new arrivals are successful in establishing themselves. Quantifying the pattern of establishment of nonindigenous species across both spatial and temporal scales is paramount in early detection efforts, yet very...

Radio Frequency Emitter Geolocation Using Cubesats

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-27

CUBESATS Andrew J. Small, B.S.E.E. Captain, USAF Approved: //signed// Maj Marshall Haker , PhD (Chairman) //signed// Jonathan Black, PhD (Member) //signed...Cubesat, Direct Position Determination, Angle of Arrival, Time Difference of Arrival, Instantaneous Received Frequency U U U UU 101 Maj Marshall Haker (ENG) (937) 255-3636 x4603 marshall.haker@afit.edu

An automatic P‐Phase arrival‐time picker

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, Erol

2016-01-01

Presented is a new approach for picking P‐phase arrival time in single‐component acceleration or broadband velocity records without requiring detection interval or threshold settings. The algorithm PPHASEPICKER transforms the signal into a response domain of a single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) oscillator with viscous damping and then tracks the rate of change of dissipated damping energy to pick P‐wave phases. The SDOF oscillator has a short natural period and a correspondingly high resonant frequency, which is higher than most frequencies in a seismic wave. It also has a high damping ratio (60% of critical). At this damping level, the frequency response approaches the Butterworth maximally flat magnitude filter, and phase angles are preserved. The relative input energy imparted to the oscillator by the input signal is converted to elastic strain energy and then dissipated by the damping element as damping energy. The damping energy yields a smooth envelope over time; it is zero in the beginning of the signal, zero or near zero before theP‐phase arrival, and builds up rapidly with the P wave. Because the damping energy function changes considerably at the onset of the P wave, it is used as a metric to track and pick the P‐phase arrival time. The PPHASEPICKER detects P‐phase onset using the histogram method. Its performance is compared with picking techniques using short‐term‐average to long‐term‐average ratio, and a picking method that finds the first P‐phase arrival time using the Akaike information criterion. A large set of records with various intensities and signal‐to‐noise ratios is used for testing the PPHASEPICKER, and it is demonstrated thatPPHASEPICKER is able to more accurately pick the onset of genuine signals against the background noise and to correctly distinguish between whether the first arrival is a P wave (emergent or impulsive) or whether the signal is from a faulty sensor.

Fast-Time Evaluations of Airborne Merging and Spacing in Terminal Arrival Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurthy, Karthik; Barmore, Bryan; Bussink, Frank; Weitz, Lesley; Dahlene, Laura

2005-01-01

NASA researchers are developing new airborne technologies and procedures to increase runway throughput at capacity-constrained airports by improving the precision of inter-arrival spacing at the runway threshold. In this new operational concept, pilots of equipped aircraft are cleared to adjust aircraft speed to achieve a designated spacing interval at the runway threshold, relative to a designated lead aircraft. A new airborne toolset, prototypes of which are being developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, assists pilots in achieving this objective. The current prototype allows precision spacing operations to commence even when the aircraft and its lead are not yet in-trail, but are on merging arrival routes to the runway. A series of fast-time evaluations of the new toolset were conducted at the Langley Research Center during the summer of 2004. The study assessed toolset performance in a mixed fleet of aircraft on three merging arrival streams under a range of operating conditions. The results of the study indicate that the prototype possesses a high degree of robustness to moderate variations in operating conditions.

Dairy calf rearing unit and infectious diseases: diarrhea outbreak by bovine coronavirus as a model for the dispersion of pathogenic microorganisms.

PubMed

Alfieri, Amauri Alcindo; Ribeiro, Juliane; de Carvalho Balbo, Luciana; Lorenzetti, Elis; Alfieri, Alice Fernandes

2018-04-18

Dairy calf rearing unit is a management system that is only recently being implemented by some milk producer's cooperatives in southern Brazil. However, aspects related to the health profile of the heifer calves that arrive in the rearing unit as well as about biosecurity practices and microbiological challenges have not yet been evaluated in this rearing system in a tropical country. Diarrhea is the main and most frequent consequence of enteric infections in newborn calves. This study, through some etiological and epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of neonatal diarrhea, has the aim to alert to the possibility of pathogenic microorganism spread in a dairy heifer calf rearing unit. The diarrhea outbreak presented some non-regular characteristics observed in bovine coronavirus (BCoV) enteric infections in dairy calves. The spread of infection was extremely rapid (1 week); the attack rate (> 50%) was much higher than that observed in calves subjected to conventional rearing; and the age range (5 to 90 days) of the affected heifer calves was much broader than that often observed in the BCoV diarrhea worldwide. These unusual epidemiological characteristics observed in this BCoV diarrhea outbreak raise awareness of the health threat present in calf rearing units as well as of the easy and rapid viral spread in a population of young animals from different dairy herds and, therefore, with very distinct immunological status.

Laboratory modeling of aspects of large fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrier, G. F.; Fendell, F. E.; Fleeter, R. D.; Gat, N.; Cohen, L. M.

1984-04-01

The design, construction, and use of a laboratory-scale combustion tunnel for simulating aspects of large-scale free-burning fires are described. The facility consists of an enclosed, rectangular-cross section (1.12 m wide x 1.27 m high) test section of about 5.6 m in length, fitted with large sidewall windows for viewing. A long upwind section permits smoothing (by screens and honeycombs) of a forced-convective flow, generated by a fan and adjustable in wind speed (up to a maximum speed of about 20 m/s prior to smoothing). Special provision is made for unconstrained ascent of a strongly buoyant plume, the duct over the test section being about 7 m in height. Also, a translatable test-section ceiling can be used to prevent jet-type spreading into the duct of the impressed flow; that is, the wind arriving at a site (say) half-way along the test section can be made (by ceiling movement) approximately the same as that at the leading edge of the test section with a fully open duct (fully retracted ceiling). Of particular interest here are the rate and structure of wind-aided flame spread streamwise along a uniform matrix of vertically oriented small fuel elements (such as toothpicks or coffee-strirrers), implanted in clay stratum on the test-section floor; this experiment is motivated by flame spread across strewn debris, such as may be anticipated in an urban environment after severe blast damage.

Risks of avian influenza transmission in areas of intensive free-ranging duck production with wild waterfowl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cappelle, Julien; Zhao, Delong; Gilbert, Marius; Newman, Scott H.; Takekawa, John Y.; Gaidet, Nicolas; Prosser, Diann J.; Liu, Ying; Li, Peng; Shu, Yuelong; Xiao, Xiangming

2014-01-01

For decades, southern China has been considered to be an important source for emerging influenza viruses since key hosts live together in high densities in areas with intensive agriculture. However, the underlying conditions of emergence and spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) have not been studied in detail, particularly the complex spatiotemporal interplay of viral transmission between wild and domestic ducks, two major actors of AIV epidemiology. In this synthesis, we examine the risks of avian influenza spread in Poyang Lake, an area of intensive free-ranging duck production and large numbers of wild waterfowl. Our synthesis shows that farming of free-grazing domestic ducks is intensive in this area and synchronized with wild duck migration. The presence of juvenile domestic ducks in harvested paddy fields prior to the arrival and departure of migrant ducks in the same fields may amplify the risk of AIV circulation and facilitate the transmission between wild and domestic populations. We provide evidence associating wild ducks migration with the spread of H5N1 in the spring of 2008 from southern China to South Korea, Russia, and Japan, supported by documented wild duck movements and phylogenetic analyses of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 sequences. We suggest that prevention measures based on a modification of agricultural practices may be implemented in these areas to reduce the intensity of AIV transmission between wild and domestic ducks. This would require involving all local stakeholders to discuss feasible and acceptable solutions.

Agricultural Airplane Mission Time Structure Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jewel, J. W., Jr.

1982-01-01

The time structure characteristics of agricultural airplane missions were studied by using records from NASA VGH flight recorders. Flight times varied from less than 3 minutes to more than 103 minutes. There was a significant reduction in turning time between spreading runs as pilot experience in the airplane type increased. Spreading runs accounted for only 25 to 29 percent of the flight time of an agricultural airplane. Lowering the longitudinal stick force appeared to reduce both the turning time between spreading runs and pilot fatigue at the end of a working day.

CTAS: Computer intelligence for air traffic control in the terminal area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erzberger, Heinz

1992-01-01

A system for the automated management and control of arrival traffic, referred to as the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS), has been designed by the ATC research group at NASA Ames research center. In a cooperative program, NASA and the FAA have efforts underway to install and evaluate the system at the Denver and Dallas/Ft. Worth airports. CTAS consists of three types of integrated tools that provide computer-generated intelligence for both Center and TRACON controllers to guide them in managing and controlling arrival traffic efficiently. One tool, the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA), establishes optimized landing sequences and landing times for aircraft arriving in the center airspace several hundred miles from the airport. In TRACON, TMA frequencies missed approach aircraft and unanticipated arrivals. Another tool, the Descent Advisor (DA), generates clearances for the center controllers handling at crossing times provided by TMA. In the TRACON, the final approach spacing tool (FAST) provides heading and speed clearances that produce and accurately spaced flow of aircraft on the final approach course. A data base consisting of aircraft performance models, airline preferred operational procedures and real time wind measurements contribute to the effective operation of CTAS. Extensive simulator evaluations of CTAS have demonstrated controller acceptance, delay reductions, and fuel savings.

Multi-instrument observation on co-seismic ionospheric effects after great Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Y. Q.; Xiao, Z.; Zhang, D. H.

2012-02-01

In this paper, evidence of quake-excited infrasonic waves is provided first by a multi-instrument observation of Japan's Tohoku earthquake. The observations of co-seismic infrasonic waves are as follows: 1, effects of surface oscillations are observed by local infrasonic detector, and it seems these effects are due to surface oscillation-excited infrasonic waves instead of direct influence of seismic vibration on the detector; 2, these local excited infrasonic waves propagate upwards and correspond to ionospheric disturbances observed by Doppler shift measurements and GPS/TEC; 3, interactions between electron density variation and currents in the ionosphere caused by infrasonic waves manifest as disturbances in the geomagnetic field observed via surface magnetogram; 4, within 4 hours after this strong earthquake, disturbances in the ionosphere related to arrivals of Rayleigh waves were observed by Doppler shift sounding three times over. Two of the arrivals were from epicenter along the minor arc of the great circle (with the second arrival due to a Rayleigh wave propagating completely around the planet) and the other one from the opposite direction. All of these seismo-ionospheric effects observed by HF Doppler shift appear after local arrivals of surface Rayleigh waves, with a time delay of 8-10 min. This is the time required for infrasonic wave to propagate upwards to the ionosphere.

Access block in NSW hospitals, 1999-2001: does the definition matter?

PubMed

Forero, Roberto; Mohsin, Mohammed; Bauman, Adrian E; Ieraci, Sue; Young, Lis; Phung, Hai N; Hillman, Kenneth M; McCarthy, Sally M; Hugelmeyer, C David

2004-01-19

To estimate the magnitude of access block and its trend over time in New South Wales hospitals, using different definitions of access block, and to explore its association with clinical and non-clinical factors. An epidemiological study using the Emergency Department Information System datasets (1 January 1999 to 31 December 2001) from a sample of 55 NSW hospitals. Prevalence of access block measured by four different definitions; strength of association between access block, type of hospital, year of presentation, mode and time of arrival, triage category (an indicator of urgency), age and sex. Rates of access block (for all four definitions) increased between 1999 and 2001 by 1%-2% per year. There were increases across all regions of NSW, but urban regions in particular. Patients presenting to Principal Referral hospitals and those who arrived at night were more likely to experience access block. After adjusting for triage category and year of presentation, the mode of arrival, time of arrival, type of hospital, age and sex were significantly associated with access block. Access block continues to increase across NSW, whatever the definition used. We recommend that hospitals in NSW and Australia move to the use of one standard definition of access block, as our study suggests there is no significant additional information emerging from the use of multiple definitions.

The economic benefits of malaria elimination: do they include increases in tourism?

PubMed

Modrek, Sepideh; Liu, Jenny; Gosling, Roland; Feachem, Richard G A

2012-07-28

Policy makers have speculated that one of the economic benefits of malaria elimination includes increases in foreign direct investment, particularly tourism. This study examines the empirical relationship between the demand for travel and malaria cases in two countries with large tourism industries around the time in which they carried out malaria-elimination campaigns. In Mauritius, this analysis examines historical, yearly tourist arrivals and malaria cases from 1978-1999, accounting for the background secular trend of increasing international travel. In Dominican Republic, a country embarking upon malaria elimination, it employs a time-series analysis of the monthly, international tourist arrivals from 1998-2010 to determine whether the timing of significant deviations in tourist arrivals coincides with malaria outbreaks. While naïve relationships exist in both cases, the results show that the relationships between tourist arrivals and malaria cases are relatively weak and statistically insignificant once secular confounders are accounted for. This suggests that any economic benefits from tourism that may be derived from actively pursuing elimination in countries that have high tourism potential are likely to be small when measured at a national level. Rather, tourism benefits are likely to be experienced with greater impact in more concentrated tourist areas within countries, and future studies should seek to assess these relationships at a regional or local level.

Accidental introductions are an important source of invasive plants in the continental United States.

PubMed

Lehan, Nora E; Murphy, Julia R; Thorburn, Lukas P; Bradley, Bethany A

2013-07-01

Preventing new plant invasions is critical for reducing large-scale ecological change. Most studies have focused on the deliberate introduction of nonnatives via the ornamental plant trade. However, accidental introduction may be an important source of nonnative, invasive plants. Using Web and literature searches, we compiled pathways of introduction to the United States for 1112 nonnative plants identified as invasive in the continental United States. We assessed how the proportion of accidentally and deliberately introduced invasive plants varies over time and space and by growth habit across the lower 48 states. Deliberate introductions of ornamentals are the primary source of invasive plants in the United States, but accidental introductions through seed contaminants are an important secondary source. Invasive forbs and grasses are the most likely to have arrived accidentally through seed contaminants, while almost all nonnative, invasive trees were introduced deliberately. Nonnative plants invading eastern states primarily arrived deliberately as ornamentals, while a high proportion of invasive plants in western states arrived accidentally as seed contaminants. Accidental introductions may be increasing in importance through time. Before 1850, 10 of 89 (11%) of invasive plants arrived accidentally. After 1900, 20 of 65 (31%) arrived accidentally. Recently enacted screening protocols and weed risk assessments aim to reduce the number of potentially invasive species arriving to the United States via deliberate introduction pathways. Increasing proportions of accidentally introduced invasive plants, particularly associated with contaminated seed imports across the western states, suggest that accidental introduction pathways also need to be considered in future regulatory decisions.

Empirical analysis and modeling of manual turnpike tollbooths in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hao

2017-03-01

To deal with low-level of service satisfaction at tollbooths of many turnpikes in China, we conduct an empirical study and use a queueing model to investigate performance measures. In this paper, we collect archived data from six tollbooths of a turnpike in China. Empirical analysis on vehicle's time-dependent arrival process and collector's time-dependent service time is conducted. It shows that the vehicle arrival process follows a non-homogeneous Poisson process while the collector service time follows a log-normal distribution. Further, we model the process of collecting tolls at tollbooths with MAP / PH / 1 / FCFS queue for mathematical tractability and present some numerical examples.

Expanding the Use of Time-Based Metering: Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landry, Steven J.; Farley, Todd; Hoang, Ty

2005-01-01

Time-based metering is an efficient air traffic management alternative to the more common practice of distance-based metering (or "miles-in-trail spacing"). Despite having demonstrated significant operational benefit to airspace users and service providers, time-based metering is used in the United States for arrivals to just nine airports and is not used at all for non-arrival traffic flows. The Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor promises to bring time-based metering into the mainstream of air traffic management techniques. Not constrained to operate solely on arrival traffic, Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor is flexible enough to work in highly congested or heavily partitioned airspace for any and all traffic flows in a region. This broader and more general application of time-based metering is expected to bring the operational benefits of time-based metering to a much wider pool of beneficiaries than is possible with existing technology. It also promises to facilitate more collaborative traffic management on a regional basis. This paper focuses on the operational concept of the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor, touching also on its system architecture, field test results, and prospects for near-term deployment to the United States National Airspace System.

Infrasound radiated by the Gerdec and Chelopechene explosions: propagation along unexpected paths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, David N.; Vergoz, Julien; Gibson, Robert; Le Pichon, Alexis; Ceranna, Lars

2011-05-01

Infrasound propagation paths through the atmosphere are controlled by the temporally and spatially varying sound speed and wind speed amplitudes. Because of the complexity of atmospheric acoustic propagation it is often difficult to reconcile observed infrasonic arrivals with the sound speed profiles predicted by meteorological specifications. This paper provides analyses of unexpected arrivals recorded in Europe and north Africa from two series of accidental munitions dump explosions, recorded at ranges greater than 1000 km: two explosions at Gerdec, Albania, on 2008 March 15 and four explosions at Chelopechene, Bulgaria, on 2008 July 3. The recorded signal characteristics include multiple pulsed arrivals, celerities between 0.24 and 0.34 km s-1 and some signal frequency content above 1 Hz. Often such characteristics are associated with waves that have propagated within a ground-to-stratosphere waveguide, although the observed celerities extend both above and below the conventional range for stratospheric arrivals. However, state-of-the-art meteorological specifications indicate that either weak, or no, ground-to-stratosphere waveguides are present along the source-to-receiver paths. By incorporating realistic gravity-wave induced horizontal velocity fluctuations into time-domain Parabolic Equation models the pulsed nature of the signals is simulated, and arrival times are predicted to within 30 s of the observed values (<1 per cent of the source-to-receiver transit time). Modelling amplitudes is highly dependent upon estimates of the unknown acoustic source strength (or equivalent chemical explosive yield). Current empirical explosive yield relationships, derived from infrasonic amplitude measurements from point-source chemical explosions, suggest that the equivalent chemical yield of the largest Gerdec explosion was of the order of 1 kt and the largest Chelopechene explosion was of the order of 100 t. When incorporating these assumed yields, the Parabolic Equation simulations predict peak signal amplitudes to within an order of magnitude of the observed values. As gravity wave velocity perturbations can significantly influence both infrasonic arrival times and signal amplitudes they need to be accounted for in source location and yield estimation routines, both of which are important for explosion monitoring, especially in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

Core-Mantle Boundary Complexities beneath the Mid-Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, D.; Helmberger, D. V.; Jackson, J. M.

2016-12-01

The detailed core-mantle boundary (CMB) structures beneath the Mid-Pacific are important to map the boundary of Large Low Shear Velocity Province (LLSVP) and the location of ultra-low velocity zone (ULVZ) related to the LLSVP and the D" layer, which are crucial for answering the key questions regarding to the mantle dynamics. Seismic data from deep earthquakes in the Fiji-Tonga region recorded by stations of USArray provide great sampling of the CMB beneath the Mid-Pacific. Here we explore the USArray data with different seismic phases to study the CMB complexities beneath the Mid-Pacific. First, we examined the differential travel time and amplitude between ScS and S for data at western US and confirm the northeastern boundary of the mid-Pacific LLSVP. The delayed ScS-S travel times and smaller amplitude of ScS require the existence of ULVZ locally. Secondly, the Sdiff data recorded by stations at central US shows variation in multi-pathing, that is, the presence of secondary arrivals following the S phase at diffracted distances (Sdiff) which suggests that the waveform complexity is due to structures at the eastern edge of the mid-Pacific LLSVP. This study reinforces previous studies that indicate late arrivals occurring after the primary Sdiff arrivals. A tapered wedge structure with low shear velocity allows for wave energy trapping, producing the observed waveform complexity and delayed arrivals at large distances. The location of the low velocity anomaly agrees with that inferred from the ScS-S measurements. We also observed advanced SV arrivals, which can be explained by the emerging of the D" discontinuity to the east of the boundary of the LLSVP to produce a "pseudo anisotropy". Thirdly, the arrivals of the SPdKS phase support the presence of an ULVZ within a two-humped LLSVP. A sharp 10 secs jump of the differential travel time between S and SKS (TS-SKS) across distance range of 5° is observed. The associated SKS waveform distortions suggest that the differential travel time anomaly is mainly controlled by the SKS, which is explained by a possible slab subducted to the lower mantle.

Evidence-based Effective Triage Operation During Disaster: Application of Human-trajectory Data to Triage Drill Sessions.

PubMed

Ohta, Shoichi; Yoda, Ikushi; Takeda, Munekazu; Kuroshima, Satomi; Uchida, Kotaro; Kawai, Kentaro; Yukioka, Tetsuo

2015-02-01

Though many governmental and nongovernmental efforts for disaster prevention have been sought throughout Japan since the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, most of the preparation efforts for disasters have been based more on structural and conventionalized regulations than on scientific and objective grounds. Problem There has been a lack of scientific knowledge for space utilization for triage posts in disaster drill sessions. This report addresses how participants occupy and make use of the space within a triage post in terms of areas of use and occupied time. The trajectories of human movement by using Ubiquitous Stereo Vision (USV) cameras during two emergency drill sessions held in 2012 in a large commercial building have been measured. The USV cameras collect each participant's travel distance and the wait time before, during, and after undergoing triage. The correlation between the wait time and the space utilization of patients at a triage post has been analyzed. In the first session, there were some spaces not entirely used. This was caused largely by a patient who arrived earlier than others and lingered in the middle area, which caused the later arrivals to crowd the entrance area. On the other hand, in the second session, the area was used in a more evenly-distributed manner. This is mainly because the earlier arrivals were guided to the back space of the triage post (ie, the opposite side of the entrance), and the late arrivals were also guided to the front half, which was not occupied by anyone. As a result, the entire space was effectively utilized without crowding the entrance. This study has shown that this system could measure people's arrival times and the speed of their movements at the triage post, as well as where they are placed until they receive triage. Space utilization can be improved by efficiently planning and controlling the positioning of arriving patients. Based on the results, it has been suggested that for triage operation, it is necessary to efficiently plan and control the placement of patients in order to use strategically limited spatial resources.

Judging arrival times of incoming traffic vehicles is not a prerequisite for safely crossing an intersection: Differential effects of vehicle size and type in passive judgment and active driving tasks.

PubMed

Mathieu, Julie; Bootsma, Reinoud J; Berthelon, Catherine; Montagne, Gilles

2017-02-01

Using a fixed-base driving simulator we compared the effects of the size and type of traffic vehicles (i.e., normal-sized or double-sized cars or motorcycles) approaching an intersection in two different tasks. In the perceptual judgment task, passively moving participants estimated when a traffic vehicle would reach the intersection for actual arrival times (ATs) of 1, 2, or 3s. In line with earlier findings, ATs were generally underestimated, the more so the longer the actual AT. Results revealed that vehicle size affected judgments in particular for the larger actual ATs (2 and 3s), with double-sized vehicles then being judged as arriving earlier than normal-sized vehicles. Vehicle type, on the other hand, affected judgments at the smaller actual ATs (1 and 2s), with cars then being judged as arriving earlier than motorcycles. In the behavioral task participants actively drove the simulator to cross the intersection by passing through a gap in a train of traffic. Analyses of the speed variations observed during the active intersection-crossing task revealed that the size and type of vehicles in the traffic train did not affect driving behavior in the same way as in the AT judgment task. First, effects were considerably smaller, affecting driving behavior only marginally. Second, effects were opposite to expectations based on AT judgments: driver approach speeds were smaller (rather than larger) when confronted with double-sized vehicles as compared to their normal-sized counterparts and when confronted with cars as compared to motorcycles. Finally, the temporality of the effects was different on the two tasks: vehicle size affected driver approach speed in the final stages of approach rather than early on, while vehicle type affected driver approach speed early on rather than later. Overall, we conclude that the active control of approach to the intersection is not based on successive judgments of traffic vehicle arrival times. These results thereby question the general belief that arrival time estimates are crucial for safe interaction with traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The timing of life history events in the presence of soft disturbances.

PubMed

Bertacchi, Daniela; Zucca, Fabio; Ambrosini, Roberto

2016-01-21

We study a model for the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) used by biological populations for choosing the time of life-history events, such as arrival from migration and breeding. In our model we account for both intra-species competition (early individuals have a competitive advantage) and a disturbance which strikes at a random time, killing a fraction 1-p of the population. Disturbances include spells of bad weather, such as freezing or heavily raining days. It has been shown by Iwasa and Levin (1995) that when the disturbance is so strong that it kills any individual present when it strikes (hard disturbance, p=0), then the ESS is a mixed strategy (individuals choose their arrival date in an interval of possible dates, according to a certain probability distribution). In this case, individuals wait for a certain time and afterwards start arriving (or breeding) every day. In this paper we explore a biologically more realistic situation whereby the disturbance kills only a fraction of the individuals (soft disturbance, p>0). We also remove some technical assumptions which Iwasa and Levin made on the distribution of the disturbance. We prove that the ESS is still a mixed choice of times, however with respect to the case of hard disturbance, a new phenomenon arises: whenever the disturbance is soft, if the competition is sufficiently strong, the waiting time disappears and a fraction of the population arrives at the earliest day possible, while the rest will arrive throughout the whole period during which the disturbance may occur. This means that under strong competition, the payoff of early arrival balances the increased risk of being killed by the disturbance. We study the behaviour of the ESS and of the average fitness of the population, depending on the parameters involved. We also investigate how the population may be affected by climate change: namely the occurrence of more extreme weather events, which may kill a larger fraction of the population, and time shifts of the distribution of the disturbance. We show how the ESS and the average fitness change under the new climate and discuss which is the impact of the new climate on a population that still follows the old strategy. In particular, we show that, at least under some conditions, extreme weather events imply a temporary decrease of the average fitness of the population due to an increased mortality. In addition, if the population adapts to the new climate, the population may have a larger fitness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A time-motion study of ambulance-to-emergency department radio communications.

PubMed

Penner, Mark S; Cone, David C; MacMillan, Don

2003-01-01

A prospective time-motion study of radio communication between inbound ambulances and emergency department (ED) triage personnel was conducted to assess hospital triage staff time utilized, and how often radio reports result in actions taken in the ED to prepare for patient arrival. The study hypothesis was that reports for "priority 2" (P2, nonemergent) patients rarely provide information that is acted upon in the ED prior to the patient's arrival. The study was conducted at an academic adult ED receiving 22,000 ambulances per year. An observer in the ED monitored and timed (to the second) all radio reports as well as the activities of triage nurses and arriving emergency medical services (EMS) personnel. A convenience sample of 437 reports was collected: 83 priority 1 (P1, emergent) and 354 P2. Average report times (minutes:seconds) with ranges were 0:53 (0:07-1:57) for P1, and 0:44 (0:04-3:50) for P2. Only 16% of the P2 reports resulted in any preparatory action, and 55% of these were requests to have hospital police officers available to receive intoxicated patients, as per local protocol. An in-person report was given in the ED for 61% of the P2 cases, and in 48% of these, the in-person report was longer than the radio report. In the system studied, P2 reports rarely provide information that is acted on prior to the patient's arrival. The time spent giving a radio report is frequently duplicated in the ED. Radio reports for low-priority patients may not be an efficient or productive use of providers' or nurses' time.

Analysis of electric vehicle's trip cost allowing late arrival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Jun-Qiang; Liu, Wei-Yi; Zhao, Lin

2017-05-01

In this paper, we use a car-following model to study each electric vehicle's trip cost and the total trip cost allowing late arrival. The numerical result show that the electricity cost has great effects on each commuter's trip cost and the total trip costs and that these effects are dependent on each commuter's time headway at the origin, but the electricity cost has no prominent impacts on the minimum value of total trip cost under each commuter's different time headway at the origin.

Interactions between a Candidate Gene for Migration (ADCYAP1), Morphology and Sex Predict Spring Arrival in Blackcap Populations.

PubMed

Mettler, Raeann; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H Martin

2015-01-01

Avian research has begun to reveal associations between candidate genes and migratory behaviors of captive birds, yet few studies utilize genotypic, morphometric, and phenological data from wild individuals. Previous studies have identified an association between ADCYAP1 polymorphism and autumn migratory behavior (restlessness, or zugunruhe), but little is known about the relationship between ADCYAP1 and spring migratory behavior. The timing of spring migration and arrival to the breeding ground are phenological traits which could be particularly favorable for establishing territories and acquiring mates, thus important to fitness and reproductive success. Here, we investigated how individual genotypic ADCYAP1 variation and phenotypic variation (wing length and shape) of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) affect spring arrival date across nine natural populations in Europe. We hypothesized that longer alleles should be associated with earlier spring arrival dates and expected the effect on arrival date to be stronger for males as they arrive earlier. However, we found that longer wings were associated with earlier spring arrival to the breeding grounds for females, but not for males. Another female-specific effect indicated an interaction between ADCYAP1 allele size and wing pointedness on the response of spring arrival: greater allele size had a positive effect on spring arrival date for females with rounder wings, while a negative effect was apparent for females with more pointed wings. Also, female heterozygotes with pointed wing tips arrived significantly earlier than both homozygotes with pointed wings and heterozygotes with round wings. Stable isotope ratios (δ2H) of a subset of blackcaps captured in Freiburg in 2011 allowed us also to assign individuals to their main overwintering areas in northwest (NW) and southwest (SW) Europe. NW males arrived significantly earlier to the Freiburg breeding site than both SW males and females in 2011. NW females had more pointed wing tips compared to SW females, but no difference in ADCYAP1 allele size was found between the different migration routes.

Asylum seekers in Denmark--a study of health status and grade of traumatization of newly arrived asylum seekers.

PubMed

Masmas, Tania Nicole; Møller, Eva; Buhmannr, Caecilie; Bunch, Vibeke; Jensen, Jean Hald; Hansen, Trine Nørregård; Jørgensen, Louise Møller; Kjaer, Claes; Mannstaedt, Maiken; Oxholm, Annemette; Skau, Jutta; Theilade, Lotte; Worm, Lise; Ekstrøm, Morten

2008-01-01

An unknown number of asylum seekers arriving in Denmark have been exposed to torture or have experienced other traumatising events in their country of origin. The health of traumatised asylum seekers, both physically and mentally, is affected upon arrival to Denmark, and time in asylum centres leads to further deterioration in health. One hundred forty-two (N=142) newly arrived asylum seekers were examined at Center Sandholm by Amnesty International Danish Medical Group from the 1st of September until the 31st of December 2007. The asylum seekers came from 33 different countries, primarily representing Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Chechnya. Of the asylum seekers, 45 percent had been exposed to torture--approximately one-third within the year of arrival to Denmark. Unsystematic blows, personal threats or threats to family, degrading treatment, isolation, and witnessing torture of others were the main torture methods reported. The majority of the asylum seekers had witnessed armed conflict, persecution, and imprisonment. The study showed that physical symptoms were approximately twice as frequent and psychological symptoms were approximately two to three times as frequent among torture survivors as among non-tortured asylum seekers. However, even the health of non-tortured asylum seekers was affected. Among the torture survivors, 63 percent fulfilled the criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder, and 30-40 percent of the torture survivors were depressed, in anguish, anxious, and tearful in comparison to 5-10 percent of the non-tortured asylum seekers. Further, 42 percent of torture survivors had torture-related scars. Torture survivors amid newly arrived asylum seekers are an extremely vulnerable group, hence examination and inquiry about the torture history is extremely important in order to identify this population to initiate the necessary medical treatment and social assistance. Amnesty International Danish Medical group is currently planning a follow-up study of the present population which will focus on changes in health status during their time in Denmark.

A Model of Batch Scheduling for a Single Batch Processor with Additional Setups to Minimize Total Inventory Holding Cost of Parts of a Single Item Requested at Multi-due-date

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakim Halim, Abdul; Ernawati; Hidayat, Nita P. A.

2018-03-01

This paper deals with a model of batch scheduling for a single batch processor on which a number of parts of a single items are to be processed. The process needs two kinds of setups, i. e., main setups required before processing any batches, and additional setups required repeatedly after the batch processor completes a certain number of batches. The parts to be processed arrive at the shop floor at the times coinciding with their respective starting times of processing, and the completed parts are to be delivered at multiple due dates. The objective adopted for the model is that of minimizing total inventory holding cost consisting of holding cost per unit time for a part in completed batches, and that in in-process batches. The formulation of total inventory holding cost is derived from the so-called actual flow time defined as the interval between arrival times of parts at the production line and delivery times of the completed parts. The actual flow time satisfies not only minimum inventory but also arrival and delivery just in times. An algorithm to solve the model is proposed and a numerical example is shown.

Beam-energy-spread minimization using cell-timing optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, C. R.; Ekdahl, C.; Schulze, M.

2012-04-01

Beam energy spread, and related beam motion, increase the difficulty in tuning for multipulse radiographic experiments at the dual-axis radiographic hydrodynamic test facility’s axis-II linear induction accelerator (LIA). In this article, we describe an optimization method to reduce the energy spread by adjusting the timing of the cell voltages (both unloaded and loaded), either advancing or retarding, such that the injector voltage and summed cell voltages in the LIA result in a flatter energy profile. We developed a nonlinear optimization routine which accepts as inputs the 74 cell-voltage, injector voltage, and beam current waveforms. It optimizes cell timing per user-selected groups of cells and outputs timing adjustments, one for each of the selected groups. To verify the theory, we acquired and present data for both unloaded and loaded cell-timing optimizations. For the unloaded cells, the preoptimization baseline energy spread was reduced by 34% and 31% for two shots as compared to baseline. For the loaded-cell case, the measured energy spread was reduced by 49% compared to baseline.

Arrhenius reconsidered: astrophysical jets and the spread of spores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldon, Malkah I.; Sheldon, Robert B.

2015-09-01

In 1871, Lord Kelvin suggested that the fossil record could be an account of bacterial arrivals on comets. In 1903, Svante Arrhenius suggested that spores could be transported on stellar winds without comets. In 1984, Sir Fred Hoyle claimed to see the infrared signature of vast clouds of dried bacteria and diatoms. In 2012, the Polonnaruwa carbonaceous chondrite revealed fossilized diatoms apparently living on a comet. However, Arrhenius' spores were thought to perish in the long transit between stars. Those calculations, however, assume that maximum velocities are limited by solar winds to ~5 km/s. Herbig-Haro objects and T-Tauri stars, however, are young stars with jets of several 100 km/s that might provide the necessary propulsion. The central engine of bipolar astrophysical jets is not presently understood, but we argue it is a kinetic plasma instability of a charged central magnetic body. We show how to make a bipolar jet in a belljar. The instability is non-linear, and thus very robust to scaling laws that map from microquasars to active galactic nuclei. We scale up to stellar sizes and recalculate the viability/transit-time for spores carried by supersonic jets, to show the viability of the Arrhenius mechanism.

Thermoregulatory behaviour affects prevalence of chytrid fungal infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs

PubMed Central

Richards-Zawacki, Corinne L.

2010-01-01

Predicting how climate change will affect disease dynamics requires an understanding of how the environment affects host–pathogen interactions. For amphibians, global declines and extinctions have been linked to a pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a combination of body temperature measurements and disease assays conducted before and after the arrival of B. dendrobatidis, this study tested the hypothesis that body temperature affects the prevalence of infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki). The timing of first detection of the fungus was consistent with that of a wave of epidemic infections spreading south and eastward through Central America. During the epidemic, many golden frogs modified their thermoregulatory behaviour, raising body temperatures above their normal set point. Odds of infection decreased with increasing body temperature, demonstrating that even slight environmental or behavioural changes have the potential to affect an individual's vulnerability to infection. The thermal dependency of the relationship between B. dendrobatidis and its amphibian hosts demonstrates how the progression of an epidemic can be influenced by complex interactions between host and pathogen phenotypes and the environments in which they are found. PMID:19864287

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuruganti, Phani Teja

The smart grid is a combined process of revitalizing the traditional power grid applications and introducing new applications to improve the efficiency of power generation, transmission and distribution. This can be achieved by leveraging advanced communication and networking technologies. Therefore the selection of the appropriate communication technology for different smart grid applications has been debated a lot in the recent past. After comparing different possible technologies, a recent research study has arrived at a conclusion that the 3G cellular technology is the right choice for distribution side smart grid applications like smart metering, advanced distribution automation and demand response managementmore » system. In this paper, we argue that the current 3G/4G cellular technologies are not an appropriate choice for smart grid distribution applications and propose a Hybrid Spread Spectrum (HSS) based Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) as one of the alternatives to 3G/4G technologies. We present a preliminary PHY and MAC layer design of a HSS based AMI network and evaluate their performance using matlab and NS2 simulations. Also, we propose a time hierarchical scheme that can significantly reduce the volume of random access traffic generated during blackouts and the delay in power outage reporting.« less

'It is a dilemma': perspectives of nurse practitioners on health screening of newly arrived migrants.

PubMed

Kalengayi, Faustine K Nkulu; Hurtig, Anna-Karin; Nordstrand, Annika; Ahlm, Clas; Ahlberg, Beth M

2015-01-01

Screening newly arrived migrants from countries with high burden of communicable diseases of public health significance is part of the Swedish national strategy against the spread of these diseases. However, little is known about its implementation. This study aimed at exploring caregivers' experiences in screening newly arrived migrants to generate knowledge that could inform policy and clinical practice. Using an interpretive description framework, we conducted semistructured interviews between November and December 2011 in four Swedish counties, with 15 purposively selected nurses with experience in screening migrants. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Participants described a range of challenges including discordant views between migrants and the nurses about medical screening, inconsistencies in rules and practices, and conflicting policies. Participants indicated that sociocultural differences resulted in divergent expectations with migrants viewing the participants as agents of migration authorities. They also expressed concern over being given a new assignment without training and being expected to share responsibilities with staff from other agencies without adequate coordination. Finally, they indicated that existing policies can be confusing and raise ethical issues. All these were compounded by language barriers, making their work environment extremely complex and stressful. These findings illuminate complex challenges that could limit access to, uptake, and delivery of health screening and undermine public health goals, and highlight the need for a multilevel approach. This entails avoiding the conflation of migration with health issues, harmonizing existing policies to make health care services more accessible and acceptable to migrants, and facilitating health professionals' work in promoting public health, improving interagency collaboration and the skills of all staff involved in understanding and effectively responding to migrants' needs, and improving migrants' health literacy through community outreach interventions.

Scientists assess impact of Indonesia fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

The fires burning in Indonesia over the past several months are setting aflame the biomass and wildlife habitat of the tropical forests, spreading a dangerously unhealthy haze across the populous country and nearby nations in southeast Asia, causing transportation hazards, and sending plumes of smoke up into the troposphere.Most of the fires have been set—by big landowners, commercial loggers, and small farmers—in attempts to clear and cultivate the land, as people have done in the past. But this year a drought induced by El Niño limited the rainfall that could help extinguish the flames and wash away the smoke and haze. In addition, some scientists say that smoke could even delay the monsoon, which usually arrives in early November.

Operational Concept for Flight Crews to Participate in Merging and Spacing of Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxley, Brian T.; Barmore, Bryan E.; Abbott, Terence S.; Capron, William R.

2006-01-01

The predicted tripling of air traffic within the next 15 years is expected to cause significant aircraft delays and create a major financial burden for the airline industry unless the capacity of the National Airspace System can be increased. One approach to improve throughput and reduce delay is to develop new ground tools, airborne tools, and procedures to reduce the variance of aircraft delivery to the airport, thereby providing an increase in runway throughput capacity and a reduction in arrival aircraft delay. The first phase of the Merging and Spacing Concept employs a ground based tool used by Air Traffic Control that creates an arrival time to the runway threshold based on the aircraft s current position and speed, then makes minor adjustments to that schedule to accommodate runway throughput constraints such as weather and wake vortex separation criteria. The Merging and Spacing Concept also employs arrival routing that begins at an en route metering fix at altitude and continues to the runway threshold with defined lateral, vertical, and velocity criteria. This allows the desired spacing interval between aircraft at the runway to be translated back in time and space to the metering fix. The tool then calculates a specific speed for each aircraft to fly while enroute to the metering fix based on the adjusted land timing for that aircraft. This speed is data-linked to the crew who fly this speed, causing the aircraft to arrive at the metering fix with the assigned spacing interval behind the previous aircraft in the landing sequence. The second phase of the Merging and Spacing Concept increases the timing precision of the aircraft delivery to the runway threshold by having flight crews using an airborne system make minor speed changes during enroute, descent, and arrival phases of flight. These speed changes are based on broadcast aircraft state data to determine the difference between the actual and assigned time interval between the aircraft pair. The airborne software then calculates a speed adjustment to null that difference over the remaining flight trajectory. Follow-on phases still under development will expand the concept to all types of aircraft, arriving from any direction, merging at different fixes and altitudes, and to any airport. This paper describes the implementation phases of the Merging and Spacing Concept, and provides high-level results of research conducted to date.

Selection for territory acquisition is modulated by social network structure in a wild songbird

PubMed Central

Farine, D R; Sheldon, B C

2015-01-01

The social environment may be a key mediator of selection that operates on animals. In many cases, individuals may experience selection not only as a function of their phenotype, but also as a function of the interaction between their phenotype and the phenotypes of the conspecifics they associate with. For example, when animals settle after dispersal, individuals may benefit from arriving early, but, in many cases, these benefits will be affected by the arrival times of other individuals in their local environment. We integrated a recently described method for calculating assortativity on weighted networks, which is the correlation between an individual's phenotype and that of its associates, into an existing framework for measuring the magnitude of social selection operating on phenotypes. We applied this approach to large-scale data on social network structure and the timing of arrival into the breeding area over three years. We found that late-arriving individuals had a reduced probability of breeding. However, the probability of breeding was also influenced by individuals’ social networks. Associating with late-arriving conspecifics increased the probability of successfully acquiring a breeding territory. Hence, social selection could offset the effects of nonsocial selection. Given parallel theoretical developments of the importance of local network structure on population processes, and increasing data being collected on social networks in free-living populations, the integration of these concepts could yield significant insights into social evolution. PMID:25611344

Simulation Results for Airborne Precision Spacing along Continuous Descent Arrivals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barmore, Bryan E.; Abbott, Terence S.; Capron, William R.; Baxley, Brian T.

2008-01-01

This paper describes the results of a fast-time simulation experiment and a high-fidelity simulator validation with merging streams of aircraft flying Continuous Descent Arrivals through generic airspace to a runway at Dallas-Ft Worth. Aircraft made small speed adjustments based on an airborne-based spacing algorithm, so as to arrive at the threshold exactly at the assigned time interval behind their Traffic-To-Follow. The 40 aircraft were initialized at different altitudes and speeds on one of four different routes, and then merged at different points and altitudes while flying Continuous Descent Arrivals. This merging and spacing using flight deck equipment and procedures to augment or implement Air Traffic Management directives is called Flight Deck-based Merging and Spacing, an important subset of a larger Airborne Precision Spacing functionality. This research indicates that Flight Deck-based Merging and Spacing initiated while at cruise altitude and well prior to the Terminal Radar Approach Control entry can significantly contribute to the delivery of aircraft at a specified interval to the runway threshold with a high degree of accuracy and at a reduced pilot workload. Furthermore, previously documented work has shown that using a Continuous Descent Arrival instead of a traditional step-down descent can save fuel, reduce noise, and reduce emissions. Research into Flight Deck-based Merging and Spacing is a cooperative effort between government and industry partners.

Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century.

PubMed

Tjaden, Nils B; Suk, Jonathan E; Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2017-06-19

The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.

A review of trends in the distribution of vector-borne diseases: is international trade contributing to their spread?

PubMed

de La Rocque, S; Balenghien, T; Halos, L; Dietze, K; Claes, F; Ferrari, G; Guberti, V; Slingenbergh, J

2011-04-01

It is difficult to determine the part that international trade has played in the expansion of vector-borne diseases, because of the multitude of factors that affect the transformation of habitats and the interfaces between vectors and hosts. The introduction of pathogens through trade in live animals or products of animal origin, as well as the arrival of arthropod vectors, is probably quite frequent but the establishment of an efficient transmission system that develops into a disease outbreak remains the exception. In this paper, based on well-documented examples, the authors review the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of vector-borne diseases that may have been affected in their spread and change of distribution by international trade. In addition, they provide a detailed analysis of the risks associated with specific trade routes and recent expansions of vector populations. Finally, the authors highlight the importance, as well as the challenges, of preventive surveillance and regulation. The need for improved monitoring of vector populations and a readiness to face unpredictable epidemiological events are also emphasised, since this will require rapid reaction, not least in the regulatory context.

Three-dimensional spatial localization of thin fluorophore-filled capillaries in thick scattering media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desrochers, Johanne; Vermette, Patrick; Fontaine, Réjean; Bérubé-Lauzière, Yves

2008-06-01

Fluorescence optical diffuse tomography (fDOT) is of much interest in molecular imaging to retrieve information from fluorescence signals emitted from specifically targeted bioprocesses deep within living tissues. An exciting application of fDOT is in the growing field of tissue engineering, where 3D non-invasive imaging techniques are required to ultimately grow 3D engineered tissues. Via appropriate labelling strategies and fluorescent probes, fDOT has the potential to monitor culture environment and cells viability non-destructively directly within the bioreactor environment where tissues are to be grown. Our ultimate objective is to image the formation of blood vessels in bioreactor conditions. Herein, we use a non-contact setup for small animal fDOT imaging designed for 3D light collection around the sample. We previously presented a time of flight approach using a numerical constant fraction discrimination technique to assign an early photons arrival time to every fluorescence time point-spread function collected around the sample. Towards bioreactor in-situ imaging, we have shown the capability of our approach to localize a fluorophore-filled 500 μm capillary immersed coaxially in a cylindrically shaped bioreactor phantom containing an absorbing/scattering medium representative of experiments on real tissue cultures. Here, we go one step further, and present results for the 3D localization of thinner indocyanine green labelled capillaries (250 μm and 360 μm inner diameter) immersed in the same phantom conditions and geometry but with different spatial configurations (10° and 30° capillary inclination).

Pulsar Timing and Its Application for Navigation and Gravitational Wave Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Werner; Kramer, Michael; Sesana, Alberto

2018-02-01

Pulsars are natural cosmic clocks. On long timescales they rival the precision of terrestrial atomic clocks. Using a technique called pulsar timing, the exact measurement of pulse arrival times allows a number of applications, ranging from testing theories of gravity to detecting gravitational waves. Also an external reference system suitable for autonomous space navigation can be defined by pulsars, using them as natural navigation beacons, not unlike the use of GPS satellites for navigation on Earth. By comparing pulse arrival times measured on-board a spacecraft with predicted pulse arrivals at a reference location (e.g. the solar system barycenter), the spacecraft position can be determined autonomously and with high accuracy everywhere in the solar system and beyond. We describe the unique properties of pulsars that suggest that such a navigation system will certainly have its application in future astronautics. We also describe the on-going experiments to use the clock-like nature of pulsars to "construct" a galactic-sized gravitational wave detector for low-frequency (f_{GW}˜ 10^{-9} - 10^{-7} Hz) gravitational waves. We present the current status and provide an outlook for the future.