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Sample records for assembling spatially explicit

  1. Uncertainty in spatially explicit animal dispersal models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mooij, Wolf M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty in estimates of survival of dispersing animals is a vexing difficulty in conservation biology. The current notion is that this uncertainty decreases the usefulness of spatially explicit population models in particular. We examined this problem by comparing dispersal models of three levels of complexity: (1) an event-based binomial model that considers only the occurrence of mortality or arrival, (2) a temporally explicit exponential model that employs mortality and arrival rates, and (3) a spatially explicit grid-walk model that simulates the movement of animals through an artificial landscape. Each model was fitted to the same set of field data. A first objective of the paper is to illustrate how the maximum-likelihood method can be used in all three cases to estimate the means and confidence limits for the relevant model parameters, given a particular set of data on dispersal survival. Using this framework we show that the structure of the uncertainty for all three models is strikingly similar. In fact, the results of our unified approach imply that spatially explicit dispersal models, which take advantage of information on landscape details, suffer less from uncertainly than do simpler models. Moreover, we show that the proposed strategy of model development safeguards one from error propagation in these more complex models. Finally, our approach shows that all models related to animal dispersal, ranging from simple to complex, can be related in a hierarchical fashion, so that the various approaches to modeling such dispersal can be viewed from a unified perspective.

  2. On spatially explicit models of cholera epidemics.

    PubMed

    Bertuzzo, E; Casagrandi, R; Gatto, M; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I; Rinaldo, A

    2010-02-01

    We generalize a recently proposed model for cholera epidemics that accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection (Vibrio cholerae) is transported through the network links that are thought of as hydrological connections among susceptible communities. The mathematical tools used are borrowed from general schemes of reactive transport on river networks acting as the environmental matrix for the circulation and mixing of waterborne pathogens. Using the diffusion approximation, we analytically derive the speed of propagation for travelling fronts of epidemics on regular lattices (either one-dimensional or two-dimensional) endowed with uniform population density. Power laws are found that relate the propagation speed to the diffusion coefficient and the basic reproduction number. We numerically obtain the related, slower speed of epidemic spreading for more complex, yet realistic river structures such as Peano networks and optimal channel networks. The analysis of the limit case of uniformly distributed population sizes proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. To that extent, the ratio between spreading and disease outbreak time scales proves the crucial parameter. The relevance of our results lies in the major differences potentially arising between the predictions of spatially explicit models and traditional compartmental models of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)-like type. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest, time scales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of compartmental models.

  3. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  4. Spatially confined assembly of nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Lin; Chen, Xiaodong; Lu, Nan; Chi, Lifeng

    2014-10-21

    The ability to assemble NPs into ordered structures that are expected to yield collective physical or chemical properties has afforded new and exciting opportunities in the field of nanotechnology. Among the various configurations of nanoparticle assemblies, two-dimensional (2D) NP patterns and one-dimensional (1D) NP arrays on surfaces are regarded as the ideal assembly configurations for many technological devices, for example, solar cells, magnetic memory, switching devices, and sensing devices, due to their unique transport phenomena and the cooperative properties of NPs in assemblies. To realize the potential applications of NP assemblies, especially in nanodevice-related applications, certain key issues must still be resolved, for example, ordering and alignment, manipulating and positioning in nanodevices, and multicomponent or hierarchical structures of NP assemblies for device integration. Additionally, the assembly of NPs with high precision and high levels of integration and uniformity for devices with scaled-down dimensions has become a key and challenging issue. Two-dimensional NP patterns and 1D NP arrays are obtained using traditional lithography techniques (top-down strategies) or interfacial assembly techniques (bottom-up strategies). However, a formidable challenge that persists is the controllable assembly of NPs in desired locations over large areas with high precision and high levels of integration. The difficulty of this assembly is due to the low efficiency of small features over large areas in lithography techniques or the inevitable structural defects that occur during the assembly process. The combination of self-assembly strategies with existing nanofabrication techniques could potentially provide effective and distinctive solutions for fabricating NPs with precise position control and high resolution. Furthermore, the synergistic combination of spatially mediated interactions between nanoparticles and prestructures on surfaces may play

  5. Spatially explicit maximum likelihood methods for capture-recapture studies.

    PubMed

    Borchers, D L; Efford, M G

    2008-06-01

    Live-trapping capture-recapture studies of animal populations with fixed trap locations inevitably have a spatial component: animals close to traps are more likely to be caught than those far away. This is not addressed in conventional closed-population estimates of abundance and without the spatial component, rigorous estimates of density cannot be obtained. We propose new, flexible capture-recapture models that use the capture locations to estimate animal locations and spatially referenced capture probability. The models are likelihood-based and hence allow use of Akaike's information criterion or other likelihood-based methods of model selection. Density is an explicit parameter, and the evaluation of its dependence on spatial or temporal covariates is therefore straightforward. Additional (nonspatial) variation in capture probability may be modeled as in conventional capture-recapture. The method is tested by simulation, using a model in which capture probability depends only on location relative to traps. Point estimators are found to be unbiased and standard error estimators almost unbiased. The method is used to estimate the density of Red-eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from mist-netting data from the Patuxent Research Refuge, Maryland, U.S.A. Estimates agree well with those from an existing spatially explicit method based on inverse prediction. A variety of additional spatially explicit models are fitted; these include models with temporal stratification, behavioral response, and heterogeneous animal home ranges. PMID:17970815

  6. Maximum sustainable yields from a spatially-explicit harvest model.

    PubMed

    Takashina, Nao; Mougi, Akihiko

    2015-10-21

    Spatial heterogeneity plays an important role in complex ecosystem dynamics, and therefore is also an important consideration in sustainable resource management. However, little is known about how spatial effects can influence management targets derived from a non-spatial harvest model. Here, we extended the Schaefer model, a conventional non-spatial harvest model that is widely used in resource management, to a spatially-explicit harvest model by integrating environmental heterogeneities, as well as species exchange between patches. By comparing the maximum sustainable yields (MSY), one of the central management targets in resource management, obtained from the spatially extended model with that of the conventional model, we examined the effect of spatial heterogeneity. When spatial heterogeneity exists, we found that the Schaefer model tends to overestimate the MSY, implying potential for causing overharvesting. In addition, by assuming a well-mixed population in the heterogeneous environment, we showed analytically that the Schaefer model always overestimate the MSY, regardless of the number of patches existing. The degree of overestimation becomes significant when spatial heterogeneity is marked. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of integrating the spatial structure to conduct sustainable resource management.

  7. Spatially explicit spectral analysis of point clouds and geospatial data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buscombe, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The increasing use of spatially explicit analyses of high-resolution spatially distributed data (imagery and point clouds) for the purposes of characterising spatial heterogeneity in geophysical phenomena necessitates the development of custom analytical and computational tools. In recent years, such analyses have become the basis of, for example, automated texture characterisation and segmentation, roughness and grain size calculation, and feature detection and classification, from a variety of data types. In this work, much use has been made of statistical descriptors of localised spatial variations in amplitude variance (roughness), however the horizontal scale (wavelength) and spacing of roughness elements is rarely considered. This is despite the fact that the ratio of characteristic vertical to horizontal scales is not constant and can yield important information about physical scaling relationships. Spectral analysis is a hitherto under-utilised but powerful means to acquire statistical information about relevant amplitude and wavelength scales, simultaneously and with computational efficiency. Further, quantifying spatially distributed data in the frequency domain lends itself to the development of stochastic models for probing the underlying mechanisms which govern the spatial distribution of geological and geophysical phenomena. The software package PySESA (Python program for Spatially Explicit Spectral Analysis) has been developed for generic analyses of spatially distributed data in both the spatial and frequency domains. Developed predominantly in Python, it accesses libraries written in Cython and C++ for efficiency. It is open source and modular, therefore readily incorporated into, and combined with, other data analysis tools and frameworks with particular utility for supporting research in the fields of geomorphology, geophysics, hydrography, photogrammetry and remote sensing. The analytical and computational structure of the toolbox is described

  8. Spatially explicit spectral analysis of point clouds and geospatial data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buscombe, Daniel D.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing use of spatially explicit analyses of high-resolution spatially distributed data (imagery and point clouds) for the purposes of characterising spatial heterogeneity in geophysical phenomena necessitates the development of custom analytical and computational tools. In recent years, such analyses have become the basis of, for example, automated texture characterisation and segmentation, roughness and grain size calculation, and feature detection and classification, from a variety of data types. In this work, much use has been made of statistical descriptors of localised spatial variations in amplitude variance (roughness), however the horizontal scale (wavelength) and spacing of roughness elements is rarely considered. This is despite the fact that the ratio of characteristic vertical to horizontal scales is not constant and can yield important information about physical scaling relationships. Spectral analysis is a hitherto under-utilised but powerful means to acquire statistical information about relevant amplitude and wavelength scales, simultaneously and with computational efficiency. Further, quantifying spatially distributed data in the frequency domain lends itself to the development of stochastic models for probing the underlying mechanisms which govern the spatial distribution of geological and geophysical phenomena. The software packagePySESA (Python program for Spatially Explicit Spectral Analysis) has been developed for generic analyses of spatially distributed data in both the spatial and frequency domains. Developed predominantly in Python, it accesses libraries written in Cython and C++ for efficiency. It is open source and modular, therefore readily incorporated into, and combined with, other data analysis tools and frameworks with particular utility for supporting research in the fields of geomorphology, geophysics, hydrography, photogrammetry and remote sensing. The analytical and computational structure of the toolbox is

  9. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity explain disease dynamics in a spatially explicit network model.

    PubMed

    Brooks, Christopher P; Antonovics, Janis; Keitt, Timothy H

    2008-08-01

    There is an increasing recognition that individual-level spatial and temporal heterogeneity may play an important role in metapopulation dynamics and persistence. In particular, the patterns of contact within and between aggregates (e.g., demes) at different spatial and temporal scales may reveal important mechanisms governing metapopulation dynamics. Using 7 years of data on the interaction between the anther smut fungus (Microbotryum violaceum) and fire pink (Silene virginica), we show how the application of spatially explicit and implicit network models can be used to make accurate predictions of infection dynamics in spatially structured populations. Explicit consideration of both spatial and temporal organization reveals the role of each in spreading risk for both the host and the pathogen. This work suggests that the application of spatially explicit network models can yield important insights into how heterogeneous structure can promote the persistence of species in natural landscapes. PMID:18662121

  10. Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

  11. A spatially explicit risk approach to support marine spatial planning in the German EEZ.

    PubMed

    Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Cormier, Roland; Floeter, Jens; Temming, Axel

    2013-05-01

    An ecosystem approach to marine spatial planning (MSP) promotes sustainable development by organizing human activities in a geo-spatial and temporal context. (1) This study develops and tests a spatially explicit risk assessment to support MSP. Using the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the North Sea as a case study area, current and future spatial management scenarios are assessed. (2) Different tools are linked in order to carry out a comprehensive spatial risk assessment of current and future spatial management scenarios for ecologic and economic ecosystem components, i.e. Pleuronectes platessa nursery grounds. With the identification of key inputs and outputs the suitability of each tool is tested. (3) Here, the procedure as well as the main findings of the spatially explicit risk approach are summarised to demonstrate the applicability of the framework and the need for an ecosystem approach to risk management techniques using geo-spatial tools.

  12. A spatially explicit risk approach to support marine spatial planning in the German EEZ.

    PubMed

    Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Cormier, Roland; Floeter, Jens; Temming, Axel

    2013-05-01

    An ecosystem approach to marine spatial planning (MSP) promotes sustainable development by organizing human activities in a geo-spatial and temporal context. (1) This study develops and tests a spatially explicit risk assessment to support MSP. Using the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the North Sea as a case study area, current and future spatial management scenarios are assessed. (2) Different tools are linked in order to carry out a comprehensive spatial risk assessment of current and future spatial management scenarios for ecologic and economic ecosystem components, i.e. Pleuronectes platessa nursery grounds. With the identification of key inputs and outputs the suitability of each tool is tested. (3) Here, the procedure as well as the main findings of the spatially explicit risk approach are summarised to demonstrate the applicability of the framework and the need for an ecosystem approach to risk management techniques using geo-spatial tools. PMID:23535014

  13. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.

  14. Compensatory heterogeneity in spatially explicit capture-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Efford, M G; Mowat, G

    2014-05-01

    Spatially explicit capture-recapture methods, used widely to estimate the abundance of large carnivores, allow for movement within home ranges during sampling. Probability of detection is a decreasing function of distance from the home range center, with one parameter for magnitude and another for spatial scale. Sex-based and other differences in home range size potentially cause heterogeneity in individual detection and bias in estimates of density. The two parameters of detection have hitherto been treated as independent, but we suggest that an inverse relation is expected when detection probability depends on time spent near the detector. Variation in the spatial scale of detection is then compensated by reciprocal variation in the magnitude parameter. We define a net measure of detection ("single-detector sampling area," a(0)), and show by simulation that its coefficient of variation (CV) is a better predictor of bias than the CV of either component or the sum of their squared CVs. In an example using the grizzly bear Ursus arctos, the estimated sex variation in a(0) was small despite large variation in each component. From the simulations, the relative bias of density estimates was generally negligible (< 5%) when CV(a(0)) < 30%. Parameterization of the detection model in terms of a(0) and spatial scale can be more parsimonious and significantly aids the biological interpretation of detection parameters.

  15. Compensatory heterogeneity in spatially explicit capture-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Efford, M G; Mowat, G

    2014-05-01

    Spatially explicit capture-recapture methods, used widely to estimate the abundance of large carnivores, allow for movement within home ranges during sampling. Probability of detection is a decreasing function of distance from the home range center, with one parameter for magnitude and another for spatial scale. Sex-based and other differences in home range size potentially cause heterogeneity in individual detection and bias in estimates of density. The two parameters of detection have hitherto been treated as independent, but we suggest that an inverse relation is expected when detection probability depends on time spent near the detector. Variation in the spatial scale of detection is then compensated by reciprocal variation in the magnitude parameter. We define a net measure of detection ("single-detector sampling area," a(0)), and show by simulation that its coefficient of variation (CV) is a better predictor of bias than the CV of either component or the sum of their squared CVs. In an example using the grizzly bear Ursus arctos, the estimated sex variation in a(0) was small despite large variation in each component. From the simulations, the relative bias of density estimates was generally negligible (< 5%) when CV(a(0)) < 30%. Parameterization of the detection model in terms of a(0) and spatial scale can be more parsimonious and significantly aids the biological interpretation of detection parameters. PMID:25000765

  16. SEARCH: Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat

    PubMed Central

    Pauli, Benjamin P.; McCann, Nicholas P.; Zollner, Patrick A.; Cummings, Robert; Gilbert, Jonathan H.; Gustafson, Eric J.

    2013-01-01

    Complex decisions dramatically affect animal dispersal and space use. Dispersing individuals respond to a combination of fine-scale environmental stimuli and internal attributes. Individual-based modeling offers a valuable approach for the investigation of such interactions because it combines the heterogeneity of animal behaviors with spatial detail. Most individual-based models (IBMs), however, vastly oversimplify animal behavior and such behavioral minimalism diminishes the value of these models. We present program SEARCH (Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat), a spatially explicit, individual-based, population model of animal dispersal through realistic landscapes. SEARCH uses values in Geographic Information System (GIS) maps to apply rules that animals follow during dispersal, thus allowing virtual animals to respond to fine-scale features of the landscape and maintain a detailed memory of areas sensed during movement. SEARCH also incorporates temporally dynamic landscapes so that the environment to which virtual animals respond can change during the course of a simulation. Animals in SEARCH are behaviorally dynamic and able to respond to stimuli based upon their individual experiences. Therefore, SEARCH is able to model behavioral traits of dispersing animals at fine scales and with many dynamic aspects. Such added complexity allows investigation of unique ecological questions. To illustrate SEARCH's capabilities, we simulated case studies using three mammals. We examined the impact of seasonally variable food resources on the weight distribution of dispersing raccoons (Procyon lotor), the effect of temporally dynamic mortality pressure in combination with various levels of behavioral responsiveness in eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and the impact of behavioral plasticity and home range selection on disperser mortality and weight change in virtual American martens (Martes americana). These simulations highlight the relevance of

  17. SEARCH: Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat.

    PubMed

    Pauli, Benjamin P; McCann, Nicholas P; Zollner, Patrick A; Cummings, Robert; Gilbert, Jonathan H; Gustafson, Eric J

    2013-01-01

    Complex decisions dramatically affect animal dispersal and space use. Dispersing individuals respond to a combination of fine-scale environmental stimuli and internal attributes. Individual-based modeling offers a valuable approach for the investigation of such interactions because it combines the heterogeneity of animal behaviors with spatial detail. Most individual-based models (IBMs), however, vastly oversimplify animal behavior and such behavioral minimalism diminishes the value of these models. We present program SEARCH (Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat), a spatially explicit, individual-based, population model of animal dispersal through realistic landscapes. SEARCH uses values in Geographic Information System (GIS) maps to apply rules that animals follow during dispersal, thus allowing virtual animals to respond to fine-scale features of the landscape and maintain a detailed memory of areas sensed during movement. SEARCH also incorporates temporally dynamic landscapes so that the environment to which virtual animals respond can change during the course of a simulation. Animals in SEARCH are behaviorally dynamic and able to respond to stimuli based upon their individual experiences. Therefore, SEARCH is able to model behavioral traits of dispersing animals at fine scales and with many dynamic aspects. Such added complexity allows investigation of unique ecological questions. To illustrate SEARCH's capabilities, we simulated case studies using three mammals. We examined the impact of seasonally variable food resources on the weight distribution of dispersing raccoons (Procyon lotor), the effect of temporally dynamic mortality pressure in combination with various levels of behavioral responsiveness in eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and the impact of behavioral plasticity and home range selection on disperser mortality and weight change in virtual American martens (Martes americana). These simulations highlight the relevance of

  18. Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bellugi, Dino; Dietrich, William E.; Stock, Jonathan D.; McKean, Jim; Kazian, Brian; Hargrove, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so it has generated downscaled precipitation maps for the storm. To predict the corresponding pattern of shallow landslide susceptibility across the state, we have used the model Shalstab (a coupled steady state runoff and infinite slope stability model) which susceptibility spatially explicit estimates of relative potential instability. Such slope stability models that include the effects of subsurface runoff on potentially destabilizing pore pressure evolution require water routing and hence the definition of upslope drainage area to each potential cell. To calculate drainage area efficiently over a large area we developed a parallel framework to scale-up Shalstab and specifically introduce a new efficient parallel drainage area algorithm which produces seamless results. The single seamless shallow landslide susceptibility map for all of California was accomplished in a short run time, and indicates that much larger areas can be efficiently modelled. As landslide maps generally over predict the extent of instability for any given storm. Local empirical data on the fraction of predicted unstable cells that failed for observed rainfall intensity can be used to specify the likely extent of hazard for a given storm. This suggests that campaigns to collect local precipitation data and detailed shallow landslide location maps after major storms could be used to calibrate models and improve their use in hazard assessment for individual storms.

  19. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density

    PubMed Central

    Glick, Henry B.; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S.; Covey, Kristofer R.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Crowther, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services. PMID:27529613

  20. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density.

    PubMed

    Glick, Henry B; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S; Covey, Kristofer R; Smith, Jeffrey R; Crowther, Thomas W

    2016-01-01

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services. PMID:27529613

  1. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherubini, Francesco; Huijbregts, Mark; Kindermann, Georg; van Zelm, Rosalie; van der Velde, Marijn; Stadler, Konstantin; Strømman, Anders Hammer

    2016-02-01

    Emission metrics aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.). Examples include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Despite the importance of biomass as a primary energy supplier in existing and future scenarios, emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis. Here, we produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy and illustrate their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation) for GWP, 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 for GTP, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for aSET. We explore metric dependencies on temperature, precipitation, biomass turnover times and extraction rates of forest residues. We find relatively high emission metrics with low precipitation, long rotation times and low residue extraction rates. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales.

  2. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy.

    PubMed

    Cherubini, Francesco; Huijbregts, Mark; Kindermann, Georg; Van Zelm, Rosalie; Van Der Velde, Marijn; Stadler, Konstantin; Strømman, Anders Hammer

    2016-02-02

    Emission metrics aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.). Examples include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Despite the importance of biomass as a primary energy supplier in existing and future scenarios, emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis. Here, we produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy and illustrate their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2(-1) (mean ± standard deviation) for GWP, 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2(-1) for GTP, and 2.14·10(-14) ± 0.11·10(-14) °C (kg yr(-1))(-1) for aSET. We explore metric dependencies on temperature, precipitation, biomass turnover times and extraction rates of forest residues. We find relatively high emission metrics with low precipitation, long rotation times and low residue extraction rates. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales.

  3. Spatial working memory interferes with explicit, but not probabilistic cuing of spatial attention.

    PubMed

    Won, Bo-Yeong; Jiang, Yuhong V

    2015-05-01

    Recent empirical and theoretical work has depicted a close relationship between visual attention and visual working memory. For example, rehearsal in spatial working memory depends on spatial attention, whereas adding a secondary spatial working memory task impairs attentional deployment in visual search. These findings have led to the proposal that working memory is attention directed toward internal representations. Here, we show that the close relationship between these 2 constructs is limited to some but not all forms of spatial attention. In 5 experiments, participants held color arrays, dot locations, or a sequence of dots in working memory. During the memory retention interval, they performed a T-among-L visual search task. Crucially, the probable target location was cued either implicitly through location probability learning or explicitly with a central arrow or verbal instruction. Our results showed that whereas imposing a visual working memory load diminished the effectiveness of explicit cuing, it did not interfere with probability cuing. We conclude that spatial working memory shares similar mechanisms with explicit, goal-driven attention but is dissociated from implicitly learned attention. PMID:25401460

  4. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy

    PubMed Central

    Cherubini, Francesco; Huijbregts, Mark; Kindermann, Georg; Van Zelm, Rosalie; Van Der Velde, Marijn; Stadler, Konstantin; Strømman, Anders Hammer

    2016-01-01

    Emission metrics aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.). Examples include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Despite the importance of biomass as a primary energy supplier in existing and future scenarios, emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis. Here, we produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy and illustrate their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2−1 (mean ± standard deviation) for GWP, 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2−1 for GTP, and 2.14·10−14 ± 0.11·10−14 °C (kg yr−1)−1 for aSET. We explore metric dependencies on temperature, precipitation, biomass turnover times and extraction rates of forest residues. We find relatively high emission metrics with low precipitation, long rotation times and low residue extraction rates. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales. PMID:26830755

  5. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy.

    PubMed

    Cherubini, Francesco; Huijbregts, Mark; Kindermann, Georg; Van Zelm, Rosalie; Van Der Velde, Marijn; Stadler, Konstantin; Strømman, Anders Hammer

    2016-01-01

    Emission metrics aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.). Examples include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Despite the importance of biomass as a primary energy supplier in existing and future scenarios, emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis. Here, we produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy and illustrate their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2(-1) (mean ± standard deviation) for GWP, 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2(-1) for GTP, and 2.14·10(-14) ± 0.11·10(-14) °C (kg yr(-1))(-1) for aSET. We explore metric dependencies on temperature, precipitation, biomass turnover times and extraction rates of forest residues. We find relatively high emission metrics with low precipitation, long rotation times and low residue extraction rates. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales. PMID:26830755

  6. Field theory for biogeography: a spatially explicit model for predicting patterns of biodiversity.

    PubMed

    O'Dwyer, James P; Green, Jessica L

    2010-01-01

    Predicting the variation of biodiversity across the surface of the Earth is a fundamental issue in ecology, and in this article we focus on one of the most widely studied spatial biodiversity patterns: the species-area relationship (SAR). The SAR is a central tool in conservation, being used to predict species loss following global climate change, and is striking in its universality throughout different geographical regions and across the tree of life. In this article we draw upon the methods of quantum field theory and the foundation of neutral community ecology to derive the first spatially explicit neutral prediction for the SAR. We find that the SAR has three phases, with a power law increase at intermediate scales, consistent with decades of documented empirical patterns. Our model also provides a building block for incorporating non-neutral biological variation, with the potential to bridge the gap between neutral and niche-based approaches to community assembly. PMID:19909313

  7. Spatially-Explicit Holocene Drought Reconstructions in Amazonian Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMichael, C.; Bush, M. B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate models predict increasing drought in Amazonian forests over the next century, and the synergy of drought and fire may lead to forest dieback. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are two primary drivers of Amazonian drought, and each process has a spatially distinct manifestation in the Basin. Paleoecological reconstructions can contextualize the forest response to past drought periods. Stalagmite and lake sediment records have documented that the early- to mid-Holocene, i.e. 10,000 - 5000 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), was among the driest periods of the last 100,000 years in western Amazonia. Climatic conditions became wetter and more similar to the modern climate over the last 4000 cal yr BP, and fires rarely occurred in the absence of human activity. Yet there are currently no drought and fire reconstructions that examine the spatially explicit patterns of drought during the Holocene. Here, we present regional drought histories from southwestern and northeastern sections Amazonia for the last 10,000 years that document the drought-fire dynamics resulting from both climatic processes. Our reconstructions were based on a compilation of dated soil charcoal fragments (N= 291) collected from within Amazonia sensu stricto, which were analyzed by region using summed probability analysis. The compiled soil charcoal dates contained limited evidence of fire over the last 10,000 years in some regions. Fire frequency rose markedly across the Basin, however, during the last 2000 years, indicating an increased human presence. Fire probabilities, and thus droughts, had similar increasing trajectories between southwestern and northeastern Amazonia from 1500-1100 cal yr BP, which decoupled from 1100-740 cal yr BP, and then regained synchronicity from 740-500 cal yr BP. Fire probability declined markedly after 500 yr cal BP, coincident with European arrival to the Americas. Native populations were decimated

  8. Spatially-explicit representation of state-and-transition models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The broad-scale assessment of natural resource conditions (e.g., rangeland health, restoration needs) requires knowledge of their spatial distribution. We argue that creating a database that links state-and-transition models (STMs) to spatial units is a valuable management tool for structuring groun...

  9. Spatially explicit analyses of gastropod biodiversity in ancient Lake Ohrid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauffe, T.; Albrecht, C.; Schreiber, K.; Birkhofer, K.; Trajanovski, S.; Wilke, T.

    2010-07-01

    Spatial heterogeneity of biodiversity arises from evolutionary processes, constraints of environmental factors and the interaction of communities. The quality of such spatial analyses of biodiversity is improved by (i) utilizing study areas with well defined physiogeographical boundaries, (ii) limiting the impact of widespread species, and (iii) using taxa with heterogeneous distributions. These conditions are typically met by ecosystems such as oceanic islands or ancient lakes and their biota. While research on ancient lakes has contributed significantly to our understanding of evolutionary processes, statistically sound studies of spatial variation of extant biodiversity have been hampered by the frequently vast size of ancient lakes, their limited accessibility, and the lack of infrastructure around them. The small European ancient Lake Ohrid provides a rare opportunity for such a reliable spatial study. The comprehensive horizontal and vertical sampling of a species-rich taxon, the Gastropoda, presented here, revealed interesting patterns of biodiversity, which, in part, have not been shown before for other ancient lakes. In a total of 224 locations throughout the Ohrid Basin, representatives of 68 gastropod species with 50 of them being endemic (=73.5%) could be reported. The spatial distribution of these species shows the following characteristics: (i) within Lake Ohrid, the most frequent species are endemic taxa with a wide depth range, (ii) widespread species (i.e. those occurring throughout the Balkans or beyond) are rare and mainly occur in the upper layer of the lake, (iii) while the total number of species decreases with water depth, the share of endemics increases, (iv) the deeper layers of Lake Ohrid appear to have a higher spatial homogeneity of biodiversity and related environmental factors, (v) biotic interaction due to possible spillover effects may contribute to the establishment of hotspots, and (vi) eco-insularity within the Ohrid Basin occurs

  10. Spatially explicit analysis of gastropod biodiversity in ancient Lake Ohrid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauffe, T.; Albrecht, C.; Schreiber, K.; Birkhofer, K.; Trajanovski, S.; Wilke, T.

    2011-01-01

    The quality of spatial analyses of biodiversity is improved by (i) utilizing study areas with well defined physiogeographical boundaries, (ii) limiting the impact of widespread species, and (iii) using taxa with heterogeneous distributions. These conditions are typically met by ecosystems such as oceanic islands or ancient lakes and their biota. While research on ancient lakes has contributed significantly to our understanding of evolutionary processes, statistically sound studies of spatial variation of extant biodiversity have been hampered by the frequently vast size of ancient lakes, their limited accessibility, and the lack of scientific infrastructure. The European ancient Lake Ohrid provides a rare opportunity for such a reliable spatial study. The comprehensive horizontal and vertical sampling of a species-rich taxon, the Gastropoda, presented here, revealed interesting patterns of biodiversity, which, in part, have not been shown before for other ancient lakes. In a total of 284 samples from 224 different locations throughout the Ohrid Basin, 68 gastropod species, with 50 of them (= 73.5%) being endemic, could be reported. The spatial distribution of these species shows the following characteristics: (i) within Lake Ohrid, the most frequent species are endemic taxa with a wide depth range, (ii) widespread species (i.e. those occurring throughout the Balkans or beyond) are rare and mainly occur in the upper layer of the lake, (iii) while the total number of species decreases with water depth, the proportion of endemics increases, and (iv) the deeper layers of Lake Ohrid appear to have a higher spatial homogeneity of biodiversity. Moreover, gastropod communities of Lake Ohrid and its feeder springs are both distinct from each other and from the surrounding waters. The analysis also shows that community similarity of Lake Ohrid is mainly driven by niche processes (e.g. environmental factors), but also by neutral processes (e.g. dispersal limitation and

  11. Elucidating spatially explicit behavioral landscapes in the Willow Flycatcher

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakian, Amanda V.; Sullivan, Kimberly A.; Paxton, Eben H.

    2012-01-01

    Animal resource selection is a complex, hierarchical decision-making process, yet resource selection studies often focus on the presence and absence of an animal rather than the animal's behavior at resource use locations. In this study, we investigate foraging and vocalization resource selection in a population of Willow Flycatchers, Empidonax traillii adastus, using Bayesian spatial generalized linear models. These models produce “behavioral landscapes” in which space use and resource selection is linked through behavior. Radio telemetry locations were collected from 35 adult Willow Flycatchers (n = 14 males, n = 13 females, and n = 8 unknown sex) over the 2003 and 2004 breeding seasons at Fish Creek, Utah. Results from the 2-stage modeling approach showed that habitat type, perch position, and distance from the arithmetic mean of the home range (in males) or nest site (in females) were important factors influencing foraging and vocalization resource selection. Parameter estimates from the individual-level models indicated high intraspecific variation in the use of the various habitat types and perch heights for foraging and vocalization. On the population level, Willow Flycatchers selected riparian habitat over other habitat types for vocalizing but used multiple habitat types for foraging including mountain shrub, young riparian, and upland forest. Mapping of observed and predicted foraging and vocalization resource selection indicated that the behavior often occurred in disparate areas of the home range. This suggests that multiple core areas may exist in the home ranges of individual flycatchers, and demonstrates that the behavioral landscape modeling approach can be applied to identify spatially and behaviorally distinct core areas. The behavioral landscape approach is applicable to a wide range of animal taxa and can be used to improve our understanding of the spatial context of behavior and resource selection.

  12. Landscape equivalency analysis: methodology for estimating spatially explicit biodiversity credits.

    PubMed

    Bruggeman, Douglas J; Jones, Michael L; Lupi, Frank; Scribner, Kim T

    2005-10-01

    We propose a biodiversity credit system for trading endangered species habitat designed to minimize and reverse the negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, the leading cause of species endangerment in the United States. Given the increasing demand for land, approaches that explicitly balance economic goals against conservation goals are required. The Endangered Species Act balances these conflicts based on the cost to replace habitat. Conservation banking is a means to manage this balance, and we argue for its use to mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation. Mitigating the effects of land development on biodiversity requires decisions that recognize regional ecological effects resulting from local economic decisions. We propose Landscape Equivalency Analysis (LEA), a landscape-scale approach similar to HEA, as an accounting system to calculate conservation banking credits so that habitat trades do not exacerbate regional ecological effects of local decisions. Credits purchased by public agencies or NGOs for purposes other than mitigating a take create a net investment in natural capital leading to habitat defragmentation. Credits calculated by LEA use metapopulation genetic theory to estimate sustainability criteria against which all trades are judged. The approach is rooted in well-accepted ecological, evolutionary, and economic theory, which helps compensate for the degree of uncertainty regarding the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on endangered species. LEA requires application of greater scientific rigor than typically applied to endangered species management on private lands but provides an objective, conceptually sound basis for achieving the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency and long-term ecological sustainability. PMID:16132443

  13. Spatially explicit data: stewardship and ethical challenges in science.

    PubMed

    Hartter, Joel; Ryan, Sadie J; Mackenzie, Catrina A; Parker, John N; Strasser, Carly A

    2013-09-01

    Scholarly communication is at an unprecedented turning point created in part by the increasing saliency of data stewardship and data sharing. Formal data management plans represent a new emphasis in research, enabling access to data at higher volumes and more quickly, and the potential for replication and augmentation of existing research. Data sharing has recently transformed the practice, scope, content, and applicability of research in several disciplines, in particular in relation to spatially specific data. This lends exciting potentiality, but the most effective ways in which to implement such changes, particularly for disciplines involving human subjects and other sensitive information, demand consideration. Data management plans, stewardship, and sharing, impart distinctive technical, sociological, and ethical challenges that remain to be adequately identified and remedied. Here, we consider these and propose potential solutions for their amelioration.

  14. Program SPACECAP: software for estimating animal density using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, James E.; Singh, Pallavi; Jathanna, Devcharan; Kumar, N. Samba; Karanth, K. Ullas

    2012-01-01

    1. The advent of spatially explicit capture-recapture models is changing the way ecologists analyse capture-recapture data. However, the advantages offered by these new models are not fully exploited because they can be difficult to implement. 2. To address this need, we developed a user-friendly software package, created within the R programming environment, called SPACECAP. This package implements Bayesian spatially explicit hierarchical models to analyse spatial capture-recapture data. 3. Given that a large number of field biologists prefer software with graphical user interfaces for analysing their data, SPACECAP is particularly useful as a tool to increase the adoption of Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture methods in practice.

  15. Spatially explicit multimedia fate models for pollutants in Europe: state of the art and perspectives.

    PubMed

    Pistocchi, A; Sarigiannis, D A; Vizcaino, P

    2010-08-15

    A review by Hollander et al. (in preparation), discusses the relative potentials, advantages and shortcomings of spatial and non spatial models of chemical fate, highlighting that spatially explicit models may be needed for specific purposes. The present paper reviews the state of the art in spatially explicit chemical fate and transport modeling in Europe. We summarize the three main approaches currently adopted in spatially explicit modeling, namely (1) multiple box models, (2) numerical solutions of simultaneous advection-dispersion equations (ADE) in air, soil and water, and (3) the development of meta-models. As all three approaches experience limitations, we describe in further detail geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling as an alternative approach allowing a simple, yet spatially explicit description of chemical fate. We review the input data needed, and the options available for their retrieval at the European scale. We also discuss the importance of, and limitations in model evaluation. We observe that the high uncertainty in chemical emissions and physico-chemical behavior in the environment make realistic simulations difficult to obtain. Therefore we envisage a shift in model use from process simulation to hypothesis testing, in which explaining the discrepancies between observed and computed chemical concentrations in the environment takes importance over prediction per se. This shift may take advantage of using simple models in GIS with residual uses of complex models for detailed studies. It also calls for tighter joint interpretation of models and spatially distributed monitoring datasets, and more refined spatial representation of environmental drivers such as landscape and climate variables, and better emission estimates. In summary, we conclude that the problem is not "how to compute" (i.e. emphasis on numerical methods, spatial/temporal discretization, quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis...) but "what to compute" (i

  16. Modeling Trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey Data: A Spatially Explicit Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bled, Florent; Sauer, John; Pardieck, Keith; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area. PMID:24349141

  17. Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

    2013-01-01

    Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

  18. Computing solvent-induced forces in the solvation approach called Semi Explicit Assembly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brini, Emiliano; Hummel, Michelle H.; Coutsias, Evangelos A.; Fennell, Christopher J.; Dill, Ken A.

    2014-03-01

    Many biologically relevant processes (e.g. protein folding) are often too big and slow to be simulated by computer methods that model atomically detailed water. Faster physical models of water are needed. We have developed an approach called Semi Explicit Assembly (SEA) [C.J. Fennell, C.W. Kehoe, K.A. Dill, PNAS, 108, 3234 (2011)]. It is physical because it uses pre-simulations of explicit-solvent models, and it is fast because at runtime, we just combine the pre-simulated results in rapid computations. SEA has also now been proven physically accurate in two blind tests called SAMPL. Here, we describe the computation of solvation forces in SEA, so that this solvation procedure can be incorporated into standard molecular dynamics codes. We describe experimental tests.

  19. Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability: Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls.

    PubMed

    Vander Heyden, Karin M; van Atteveldt, Nienke M; Huizinga, Mariette; Jolles, Jelle

    2016-01-01

    Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and girls' underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of stereotypic gender beliefs on spatial ability (i.e., "spatial ability is for boys") in 10- and 12-year-old children. We used both an explicit measure (i.e., a self-report questionnaire) and an implicit measure (i.e., a child IAT). Results of the explicit measure showed that both sexes associated spatial ability with boys, with boys holding more male stereotyped attitudes than girls. On the implicit measure, boys associated spatial ability with boys, while girls were gender-neutral. In addition, we examined the effects of gender beliefs on spatial performance, by experimentally activating gender beliefs within a pretest-instruction-posttest design. We compared three types of instruction: boys are better, girls are better, and no sex differences. No effects of these gender belief instructions were found on children's spatial test performance (i.e., mental rotation and paper folding). The finding that children of this age already have stereotypic beliefs about the spatial capacities of their own sex is important, as these beliefs may influence children's choices for spatial leisure activities and educational tracks in the STEM domain.

  20. Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability: Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls.

    PubMed

    Vander Heyden, Karin M; van Atteveldt, Nienke M; Huizinga, Mariette; Jolles, Jelle

    2016-01-01

    Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and girls' underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of stereotypic gender beliefs on spatial ability (i.e., "spatial ability is for boys") in 10- and 12-year-old children. We used both an explicit measure (i.e., a self-report questionnaire) and an implicit measure (i.e., a child IAT). Results of the explicit measure showed that both sexes associated spatial ability with boys, with boys holding more male stereotyped attitudes than girls. On the implicit measure, boys associated spatial ability with boys, while girls were gender-neutral. In addition, we examined the effects of gender beliefs on spatial performance, by experimentally activating gender beliefs within a pretest-instruction-posttest design. We compared three types of instruction: boys are better, girls are better, and no sex differences. No effects of these gender belief instructions were found on children's spatial test performance (i.e., mental rotation and paper folding). The finding that children of this age already have stereotypic beliefs about the spatial capacities of their own sex is important, as these beliefs may influence children's choices for spatial leisure activities and educational tracks in the STEM domain. PMID:27507956

  1. Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability: Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls

    PubMed Central

    Vander Heyden, Karin M.; van Atteveldt, Nienke M.; Huizinga, Mariette; Jolles, Jelle

    2016-01-01

    Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and girls' underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of stereotypic gender beliefs on spatial ability (i.e., “spatial ability is for boys”) in 10- and 12-year-old children. We used both an explicit measure (i.e., a self-report questionnaire) and an implicit measure (i.e., a child IAT). Results of the explicit measure showed that both sexes associated spatial ability with boys, with boys holding more male stereotyped attitudes than girls. On the implicit measure, boys associated spatial ability with boys, while girls were gender-neutral. In addition, we examined the effects of gender beliefs on spatial performance, by experimentally activating gender beliefs within a pretest—instruction—posttest design. We compared three types of instruction: boys are better, girls are better, and no sex differences. No effects of these gender belief instructions were found on children's spatial test performance (i.e., mental rotation and paper folding). The finding that children of this age already have stereotypic beliefs about the spatial capacities of their own sex is important, as these beliefs may influence children's choices for spatial leisure activities and educational tracks in the STEM domain. PMID:27507956

  2. Spatially explicit watershed modeling: tracking water, mercury and nitrogen in multiple systems under diverse conditions

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental decision-making and the influences of various stressors, such as landscape and climate changes on water quantity and quality, requires the application of environmental modeling. Spatially explicit environmental and watershed-scale models using GIS as a base framewor...

  3. DEFINING RECOVERY GOALS AND STRATEGIES FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES USING SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We used a spatially explicit population model of wolves (Canis lupus) to propose a framework for defining rangewide recovery priorities and finer-scale strategies for regional reintroductions. The model predicts that Yellowstone and central Idaho, where wolves have recently been ...

  4. HexSim - A general purpose framework for spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    HexSim is a framework for constructing spatially-explicit, individual-based computer models designed for simulating terrestrial wildlife population dynamics and interactions. HexSim is useful for a broad set of modeling applications. This talk will focus on a subset of those ap...

  5. On Spatially Explicit Models of Cholera Epidemics: Hydrologic controls, environmental drivers, human-mediated transmissions (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2010-12-01

    A recently proposed model for cholera epidemics is examined. The model accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection (Vibrio cholerae) is transported through the network links which are thought of as hydrological connections among susceptible communities. The mathematical tools used are borrowed from general schemes of reactive transport on river networks acting as the environmental matrix for the circulation and mixing of water-borne pathogens. The results of a large-scale application to the Kwa Zulu (Natal) epidemics of 2001-2002 will be discussed. Useful theoretical results derived in the spatially-explicit context will also be reviewed (like e.g. the exact derivation of the speed of propagation for traveling fronts of epidemics on regular lattices endowed with uniform population density). Network effects will be discussed. The analysis of the limit case of uniformly distributed population density proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. To that extent, it is shown that the ratio between spreading and disease outbreak timescales proves the crucial parameter. The relevance of our results lies in the major differences potentially arising between the predictions of spatially explicit models and traditional compartmental models of the SIR-like type. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest timescales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of compartmental models. Finally, a view on further developments includes: hydrologically improved aquatic reservoir models for pathogens; human mobility patterns affecting disease propagation; double-peak emergence and seasonality in the spatially explicit epidemic context.

  6. Spatial Working Memory Interferes with Explicit, but Not Probabilistic Cuing of Spatial Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Won, Bo-Yeong; Jiang, Yuhong V.

    2015-01-01

    Recent empirical and theoretical work has depicted a close relationship between visual attention and visual working memory. For example, rehearsal in spatial working memory depends on spatial attention, whereas adding a secondary spatial working memory task impairs attentional deployment in visual search. These findings have led to the proposal…

  7. Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data.

    PubMed

    Seekell, David A; Dakos, Vasilis

    2015-06-01

    Regime shifts are abrupt transitions between alternate ecosystem states including desertification in arid regions due to drought or overgrazing. Regime shifts may be preceded by statistical anomalies such as increased autocorrelation, indicating declining resilience and warning of an impending shift. Tests for conditional heteroskedasticity, a type of clustered variance, have proven powerful leading indicators for regime shifts in time series data, but an analogous indicator for spatial data has not been evaluated. A spatial analog for conditional heteroskedasticity might be especially useful in arid environments where spatial interactions are critical in structuring ecosystem pattern and process. We tested the efficacy of a test for spatial heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of regime shifts with simulated data from spatially extended vegetation models with regular and scale-free patterning. These models simulate shifts from extensive vegetative cover to bare, desert-like conditions. The magnitude of spatial heteroskedasticity increased consistently as the modeled systems approached a regime shift from vegetated to desert state. Relative spatial autocorrelation, spatial heteroskedasticity increased earlier and more consistently. We conclude that tests for spatial heteroskedasticity can contribute to the growing toolbox of early warning indicators for regime shifts analyzed with spatially explicit data. PMID:26078855

  8. Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data

    PubMed Central

    Seekell, David A; Dakos, Vasilis

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts are abrupt transitions between alternate ecosystem states including desertification in arid regions due to drought or overgrazing. Regime shifts may be preceded by statistical anomalies such as increased autocorrelation, indicating declining resilience and warning of an impending shift. Tests for conditional heteroskedasticity, a type of clustered variance, have proven powerful leading indicators for regime shifts in time series data, but an analogous indicator for spatial data has not been evaluated. A spatial analog for conditional heteroskedasticity might be especially useful in arid environments where spatial interactions are critical in structuring ecosystem pattern and process. We tested the efficacy of a test for spatial heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of regime shifts with simulated data from spatially extended vegetation models with regular and scale-free patterning. These models simulate shifts from extensive vegetative cover to bare, desert-like conditions. The magnitude of spatial heteroskedasticity increased consistently as the modeled systems approached a regime shift from vegetated to desert state. Relative spatial autocorrelation, spatial heteroskedasticity increased earlier and more consistently. We conclude that tests for spatial heteroskedasticity can contribute to the growing toolbox of early warning indicators for regime shifts analyzed with spatially explicit data. PMID:26078855

  9. To spatially explicitly quantify the indirect effect of disturbances on carbon cycle of Canada's forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, W.; Cihlar, J.; Wang, S.; Zhang, Q.; Ung, C.; Price, D.; Fernandes, R.; Fraser, R.

    2001-12-01

    Disturbances (i.e., fire, insects-induced mortality, and harvesting) affect the carbon cycle of forested ecosystems directly in the year of occurrence and indirectly in many years after. For example, forest fire directly releases a fraction of carbon in biomass and forest floor to the atmosphere. The carbon cycle is also affected indirectly by disturbances which set the disturbed stand to age zero. So far, most studies estimate the indirect effect of disturbances on carbon balance at regional to national scales by aggregated forests in a region or a country into a few units, and largely ignoring the effect of spatial heterogeneity of disturbances and environmental factors. Because the effects of disturbances and environmental factors are usually non-linear, ignoring their spatial heterogeneity may introduce large error in the carbon budget estimates. In order to reduce this potential large error, spatially explicit quantification of the indirect effect of disturbances are urgently needed. Spatially explicit estimates of carbon cycle at 1-km resolution also allow direct testing against field measurements, as well as provide essential information for sustainable development of natural resources. To spatially explicitly quantify the indirect effect of disturbances on carbon cycle, we need first to quantify how stand age affects NPP. Our early results indicated the effect of stand age on NPP is species and site quality dependent. Therefore, age-NPP relationships are needed for all major forest species to carry out the spatially explicitly quantification of indirect effect of disturbances. We will derive these age-NPP relationships using existing yield tables, biomass allometric equations, and recent data on fine root and foliage production. To apply these age-NPP relationships, we need geo-spatial information on species, age, and site quality. Several initiatives have been underway to develop these spatial data layers. Because the NPP derived using these age

  10. Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.

    2016-08-01

    The projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatially explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.

  11. Using a spatially explicit analysis model to evaluate spatial variation of corn yield

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Spatial irrigation of agricultural crops using site-specific variable-rate irrigation (VRI) systems is beginning to have wide-spread acceptance. However, optimizing the management of these VRI systems to conserve natural resources and increase profitability requires an understanding of the spatial ...

  12. Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050

    PubMed Central

    McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Edward A.; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L.

    2015-01-01

    Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census’s projection methodology, with the US Census’s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations. PMID:25605882

  13. Spatially Explicit Forest Characteristics of Europe Integrating NFI and Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, A. L. S.; Neumann, M.; Hasenauer, H.

    2015-12-01

    Seeing the forest through the trees in Europe is easier said than done. European forest data is nationally collected using different methodologies and sampling techniques. This data can be difficult to obtain, and if made available often lacks spatial information and might only be provided in the local language. This makes analyzing forests in Europe difficult. The reporting systems of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the European Forestry Institute (EFI) permit several acquisition and calculation methodologies which lead to difficulties in comparing country level data. We have collected spatially explicit national forest inventory (NFI) data from 13 countries in Europe and harmonized these datasets. Using this data along with remote sensing data products we have derived spatially explicit forest characteristics maps of Europe on a 0.017o resolution representing the time period 2000-2010. We have created maps for every NFI variable in our dataset including carbon stock, forest age, forest height, volume, basal area, etc. Cross-validating this data shows that this method produces accurate results for most variables while variables pertaining to forest cover type have lower accuracy. This data is in line with data from FAO and EFI in most cases. However, our dataset allows us to identify large incongruities quickly in FAO and EFI data. Our spatially explicit data is also accurate at predicting forest characteristics in areas where we have no NFI data. This data set provides a consistent harmonized view of the state of European forests in a way hitherto not possible, giving researchers the ability to analyze forests spatially across the entire continent. This method can also be useful for those researching areas that have little or no NFI data or areas where data acquisition is difficult or impossible. This data can also quickly give policy makers a greater view of how forest management practices have shaped our current European forests.

  14. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Hongoh, Valerie; Hoen, Anne Gatewood; Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Bélanger, Denise; Michel, Pascal

    2011-12-29

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular.

  15. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular

  16. On Spatially Explicit Models of Epidemic and Endemic Cholera: The Haiti and Lake Kivu Case Studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Finger, F.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2014-12-01

    The first part of the Lecture deals with the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic. Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. A formal model comparison framework provides a quantitative assessment of the explanatory and predictive abilities of various model settings with different spatial aggregation levels. Intensive computations and objective model comparisons show that parsimonious spatially explicit models accounting for spatial connections have superior explanatory power than spatially disconnected ones for short-to intermediate calibration windows. In general, spatially connected models show better predictive ability than disconnected ones. We suggest limits and validity of the various approaches and discuss the pathway towards the development of case-specific predictive tools in the context of emergency management. The second part deals with approaches suitable to describe patterns of endemic cholera. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of lake Kivu. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multi-year dataset of reported cholera cases. Fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, are selected in calibration. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Nino Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross-validation.

  17. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

    PubMed

    Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

    2016-01-01

    Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

  18. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data

    PubMed Central

    Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

    2016-01-01

    Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed ‘hotspots’ of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species. PMID:27135614

  19. A hybrid wetland map for China: a synergistic approach using census and spatially explicit datasets.

    PubMed

    Ma, Kun; You, Liangzhi; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Mingxiang

    2012-01-01

    Wetlands play important ecological, economic, and cultural roles in societies around the world. However, wetland degradation has become a serious ecological issue, raising the global sustainability concern. An accurate wetland map is essential for wetland management. Here we used a fuzzy method to create a hybrid wetland map for China through the combination of five existing wetlands datasets, including four spatially explicit wetland distribution data and one wetland census. Our results show the total wetland area is 384,864 km(2), 4.08% of China's national surface area. The hybrid wetland map also shows spatial distribution of wetlands with a spatial resolution of 1 km. The reliability of the map is demonstrated by comparing it with spatially explicit datasets on lakes and reservoirs. The hybrid wetland map is by far the first wetland mapping that is consistent with the statistical data at the national and provincial levels in China. It provides a benchmark map for research on wetland protection and management. The method presented here is applicable for not only wetland mapping but also for other thematic mapping in China and beyond.

  20. A Hybrid Wetland Map for China: A Synergistic Approach Using Census and Spatially Explicit Datasets

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Kun; You, Liangzhi; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Mingxiang

    2012-01-01

    Wetlands play important ecological, economic, and cultural roles in societies around the world. However, wetland degradation has become a serious ecological issue, raising the global sustainability concern. An accurate wetland map is essential for wetland management. Here we used a fuzzy method to create a hybrid wetland map for China through the combination of five existing wetlands datasets, including four spatially explicit wetland distribution data and one wetland census. Our results show the total wetland area is 384,864 km2, 4.08% of China’s national surface area. The hybrid wetland map also shows spatial distribution of wetlands with a spatial resolution of 1 km. The reliability of the map is demonstrated by comparing it with spatially explicit datasets on lakes and reservoirs. The hybrid wetland map is by far the first wetland mapping that is consistent with the statistical data at the national and provincial levels in China. It provides a benchmark map for research on wetland protection and management. The method presented here is applicable for not only wetland mapping but also for other thematic mapping in China and beyond. PMID:23110105

  1. Explicit spatial scattering for load balancing in conservatively synchronized parallel discrete-event simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Thulasidasan, Sunil; Kasiviswanathan, Shiva; Eidenbenz, Stephan; Romero, Philip

    2010-01-01

    We re-examine the problem of load balancing in conservatively synchronized parallel, discrete-event simulations executed on high-performance computing clusters, focusing on simulations where computational and messaging load tend to be spatially clustered. Such domains are frequently characterized by the presence of geographic 'hot-spots' - regions that generate significantly more simulation events than others. Examples of such domains include simulation of urban regions, transportation networks and networks where interaction between entities is often constrained by physical proximity. Noting that in conservatively synchronized parallel simulations, the speed of execution of the simulation is determined by the slowest (i.e most heavily loaded) simulation process, we study different partitioning strategies in achieving equitable processor-load distribution in domains with spatially clustered load. In particular, we study the effectiveness of partitioning via spatial scattering to achieve optimal load balance. In this partitioning technique, nearby entities are explicitly assigned to different processors, thereby scattering the load across the cluster. This is motivated by two observations, namely, (i) since load is spatially clustered, spatial scattering should, intuitively, spread the load across the compute cluster, and (ii) in parallel simulations, equitable distribution of CPU load is a greater determinant of execution speed than message passing overhead. Through large-scale simulation experiments - both of abstracted and real simulation models - we observe that scatter partitioning, even with its greatly increased messaging overhead, significantly outperforms more conventional spatial partitioning techniques that seek to reduce messaging overhead. Further, even if hot-spots change over the course of the simulation, if the underlying feature of spatial clustering is retained, load continues to be balanced with spatial scattering leading us to the observation that

  2. Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arima, Eugenio Y.; Simmons, Cynthia S.; Walker, Robert T.; Cochrane, Mark A.

    2007-01-01

    This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

  3. Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

    DOE PAGES

    McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; Huynh, Timmy N.; Bhaduri, Budhendra L.

    2015-02-03

    Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

  4. Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

    SciTech Connect

    McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; Huynh, Timmy N.; Bhaduri, Budhendra L.

    2015-02-03

    Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

  5. Graph-based analysis of connectivity in spatially-explicit population models: HexSim and the Connectivity Analysis Toolkit

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background / Question / Methods Planning for the recovery of threatened species is increasingly informed by spatially-explicit population models. However, using simulation model results to guide land management decisions can be difficult due to the volume and complexity of model...

  6. Forward-in-Time, Spatially Explicit Modeling Software to Simulate Genetic Lineages Under Selection

    PubMed Central

    Currat, Mathias; Gerbault, Pascale; Di, Da; Nunes, José M.; Sanchez-Mazas, Alicia

    2015-01-01

    SELECTOR is a software package for studying the evolution of multiallelic genes under balancing or positive selection while simulating complex evolutionary scenarios that integrate demographic growth and migration in a spatially explicit population framework. Parameters can be varied both in space and time to account for geographical, environmental, and cultural heterogeneity. SELECTOR can be used within an approximate Bayesian computation estimation framework. We first describe the principles of SELECTOR and validate the algorithms by comparing its outputs for simple models with theoretical expectations. Then, we show how it can be used to investigate genetic differentiation of loci under balancing selection in interconnected demes with spatially heterogeneous gene flow. We identify situations in which balancing selection reduces genetic differentiation between population groups compared with neutrality and explain conflicting outcomes observed for human leukocyte antigen loci. These results and three previously published applications demonstrate that SELECTOR is efficient and robust for building insight into human settlement history and evolution. PMID:26949332

  7. Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Methods Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the

  8. Spatially explicit estimates of stock size, structure and biomass of North Atlantic albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Dragon, A.-C.; Arrizabalaga, H.

    2014-04-01

    The development of the ecosystem approach and models for the management of ocean marine resources requires easy access to standard validated datasets of historical catch data for the main exploited species. They are used to measure the impact of biomass removal by fisheries and to evaluate the models skills, while the use of standard dataset facilitates models inter-comparison. Unlike standard stock assessment models, new state-of-the-art ecosystem models require geo-referenced fishing data with highest possible spatial resolution. This study presents an application to the north Atlantic albacore tuna stock with a careful definition and validation of a spatially explicit fishing dataset prepared from publically available sources (ICCAT) for its use in a spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model (SEAPODYM) to provide the first spatially explicit estimate of albacore density in the North Atlantic by life stage. Density distributions are provided (http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.831499) together with the fishing data used for these estimates http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.830797, http://doi.pangaea.de/10.15 1594/PANGAEA.828168, http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.828170, and http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.828171 (see section Source Data References).

  9. Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Darren F.; Anderson, Dean P.; Barron, Mandy C.

    2016-01-01

    Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands. PMID:27721491

  10. Using spatially explicit indicators to investigate watershed characteristics and stream temperature relationships.

    PubMed

    Grabowski, Zbigniew J; Watson, Eric; Chang, Heejun

    2016-05-01

    We generate a series of novel indicators of spatially explicit watershed permeability and runoff characteristics to examine the relationship between land cover and water temperature parameters in a rapidly urbanizing watershed. Our framework provides a readily adaptable method to examine the thermal sensitivity of streams based upon the underlying geomorphological and surface characteristics of drainage basins. Using four model groups each using a different landscape characteristic weighting scheme (Model Group 1: areal averages; Model Group 2: inverse distance by total flow length; Model Group 3: overland distance to stream network and distance squared; Model Group 4: proportional flow accumulation), we examined the predictive capacity of 19 variables, including combinations of simplified land cover, elevation, slope, and flow accumulation, on five stream thermal properties: seven day moving average of daily minimum and maximum, seasonal mean temperature, a novel metric of thermal 'flashiness', and total days with maximum temperature exceeding 17.8°C. We find that the use of spatially explicit landscape indicators combining watershed processes improves the performance of regressions for predicting a number of ecologically relevant stream temperature variables. Improved indicators of watershed condition lend themselves for rapid investigation of the relationship between stream thermal conditions and landscape characteristics in watersheds modified by human land uses, ultimately providing a more hydrologically meaningful indicator for the impacts of landscape change.

  11. [Applicability analysis of spatially explicit model of leaf litter in evergreen broad-leaved forests].

    PubMed

    Zhao, Qing-Qing; Liu, He-Ming; Jonard, Mathieu; Wang, Zhang-Hua; Wang, Xi-Hua

    2014-11-01

    The spatially explicit model of leaf litter can help to understand its dispersal process, which is very important to predict the distribution pattern of leaves on the surface of the earth. In this paper, the spatially explicit model of leaf litter was developed for 20 tree species using litter trap data from the mapped forest plot in an evergreen broad-leaved forest in Tiantong, Zhejiang Pro- vince, eastern China. Applicability of the model was analyzed. The model assumed an allometric equation between diameter at breast height (DBH) and leaf litter amount, and the leaf litter declined exponentially with the distance. Model parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. Results showed that the predicted and measured leaf litter amounts were significantly correlated, but the prediction accuracies varied widely for the different tree species, averaging at 49.3% and ranging from 16.0% and 74.0%. Model qualities of tree species significantly correlated with the standard deviations of the leaf litter amount per trap, DBH of the tree species and the average leaf dry mass of tree species. There were several ways to improve the forecast precision of the model, such as installing the litterfall traps according to the distribution of the tree to cover the different classes of the DBH and distance apart from the parent trees, determining the optimal dispersal function of each tree species, and optimizing the existing dispersal function. PMID:25898606

  12. [Application of spatially explicit landscape model in soil loss study in Huzhong area].

    PubMed

    Xu, Chonggang; Hu, Yuanman; Chang, Yu; Li, Xiuzhen; Bu, Renchang; He, Hongshi; Leng, Wenfang

    2004-10-01

    Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been widely used to estimate the average annual soil loss. In most of the previous work on soil loss evaluation on forestland, cover management factor was calculated from the static forest landscape. The advent of spatially explicit forest landscape model in the last decade, which explicitly simulates the forest succession dynamics under natural and anthropogenic disturbances (fire, wind, harvest and so on) on heterogeneous landscape, makes it possible to take into consideration the change of forest cover, and to dynamically simulate the soil loss in different year (e.g. 10 years and 20 years after current year). In this study, we linked a spatially explicit landscape model (LANDIS) with USLE to simulate the soil loss dynamics under two scenarios: fire and no harvest, fire and harvest. We also simulated the soil loss with no fire and no harvest as a control. The results showed that soil loss varied periodically with simulation year, and the amplitude of change was the lowest under the control scenario and the highest under the fire and no harvest scenario. The effect of harvest on soil loss could not be easily identified on the map; however, the cumulative effect of harvest on soil loss was larger than that of fire. Decreasing the harvest area and the percent of bare soil increased by harvest could significantly reduce soil loss, but had no significant effects on the dynamic of soil loss. Although harvest increased the annual soil loss, it tended to decrease the variability of soil loss between different simulation years.

  13. Hydroclimatology of dual-peak annual cholera incidence: Insights from a spatially explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-03-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g., sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of a model river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of river flows. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely river flow, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. Our modeling framework suggests insights on how environmental drivers concert the generation of complex spatiotemporal infections and proposes an explanation for the different cholera patterns (dual or single annual peaks) exhibited by regions that share similar hydroclimatological forcings.

  14. Explicit spatial compatibility is not critical to the object handle effect.

    PubMed

    Saccone, Elizabeth J; Churches, Owen; Nicholls, Michael E R

    2016-10-01

    In object perception studies, a response advantage arises when the handle of an object is congruent with the responding hand. This handle effect is thought to reflect increased motor activation of the hand most suited to grasp the object, consistent with affordance theories of object representation. An alternative explanation has been proposed, however, which suggests that the handle effect is related to a simple spatial compatibility effect (the Simon effect). In 3 experiments, we determined whether the handle effect would emerge in the absence of explicit spatial compatibility between handle and response. Stimulus and response location was varied vertically and participants made horizontally orthogonal, bimanual responses to objects' kitchen/garage category, color (as in a traditional Simon effect) or upright/inverted orientation. Categorization and inversion tasks, which relied on object knowledge, elicited a handle effect and a vertical Simon effect regarding stimulus and response locations. When participants judged object color, as per standard Simon effect paradigms, the handle effect disappeared but the Simon effect strengthened. These data demonstrate a dissociation between affordance and spatial compatibility effects and prove that affordance plays an important role in the handle effect. Models that incorporate both affordance and spatial compatibility mechanisms are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27668425

  15. Explicit spatial compatibility is not critical to the object handle effect.

    PubMed

    Saccone, Elizabeth J; Churches, Owen; Nicholls, Michael E R

    2016-10-01

    In object perception studies, a response advantage arises when the handle of an object is congruent with the responding hand. This handle effect is thought to reflect increased motor activation of the hand most suited to grasp the object, consistent with affordance theories of object representation. An alternative explanation has been proposed, however, which suggests that the handle effect is related to a simple spatial compatibility effect (the Simon effect). In 3 experiments, we determined whether the handle effect would emerge in the absence of explicit spatial compatibility between handle and response. Stimulus and response location was varied vertically and participants made horizontally orthogonal, bimanual responses to objects' kitchen/garage category, color (as in a traditional Simon effect) or upright/inverted orientation. Categorization and inversion tasks, which relied on object knowledge, elicited a handle effect and a vertical Simon effect regarding stimulus and response locations. When participants judged object color, as per standard Simon effect paradigms, the handle effect disappeared but the Simon effect strengthened. These data demonstrate a dissociation between affordance and spatial compatibility effects and prove that affordance plays an important role in the handle effect. Models that incorporate both affordance and spatial compatibility mechanisms are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

  16. Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J. Andrew

    2010-01-01

    We develop a hierarchical capture–recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture–recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture–recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

  17. Ecological and evolutionary consequences of explicit spatial structure in exploiter-victim systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klopfer, Eric David

    One class of spatial model which has been widely used in ecology has been termed "pseudo-spatial models" and classically employs various types of aggregation in studying the coexistence of competing parasitoids. Yet, little is known about the relative effects of each of these aggregation behaviors. Thus, in Chapter 1 I chose to examine three types of aggregation and explore their relative strengths in promoting coexistence of two competing parasitoids. A striking shortcoming of spatial models in ecology to date is that there is a relative lack of use of spatial models to investigate problems on the evolutionary as opposed to ecological time scale. Consequently, in Chapter 2 I chose to start with a classic problem of evolutionary time scale--the evolution of virulence and predation rates. Debate about this problem has continued through several decades, yet many instances are not adequately explained by current models. In this study I explored the effect of explicit spatial structure on exploitation rates by comparing a cellular automata (CA) exploiter-victim model which incorporates local dynamics to a metapopulation model which does not include such dynamics. One advantage of CA models is that they are defined by simple rules rather than the often complex equations of other types of spatial models. This is an extremely useful attribute when one wants to convey results of models to an audience with an applied bent that is often uncomfortable with hard-to-understand equations. Thus, in Chapter 3, through the use of CA models I show that there are spatial phenomena which alter the impact of introduced predators and that these phenomena are potentially important in the implementation of biocontrol programs. The relatively recent incorporation of spatial models into the ecological literature has left most ecologists and evolutionary biologists without the ability to understand, let alone employ, spatial models in evolutionary problems. In order to give the next

  18. Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating

  19. MOAB: a spatially explicit, individual-based expert system for creating animal foraging models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carter, J.; Finn, John T.

    1999-01-01

    We describe the development, structure, and corroboration process of a simulation model of animal behavior (MOAB). MOAB can create spatially explicit, individual-based animal foraging models. Users can create or replicate heterogeneous landscape patterns, and place resources and individual animals of a goven species on that landscape to simultaneously simulate the foraging behavior of multiple species. The heuristic rules for animal behavior are maintained in a user-modifiable expert system. MOAB can be used to explore hypotheses concerning the influence of landscape patttern on animal movement and foraging behavior. A red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) foraging and nest predation model was created to test MOAB's capabilities. Foxes were simulated for 30-day periods using both expert system and random movement rules. Home range size, territory formation and other available simulation studies. A striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis L.) model also was developed. The expert system model proved superior to stochastic in respect to territory formation, general movement patterns and home range size.

  20. A spatially explicit model for an Allee effect: why wolves recolonize so slowly in Greater Yellowstone.

    PubMed

    Hurford, Amy; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lewis, Mark A

    2006-11-01

    A reduced probability of finding mates at low densities is a frequently hypothesized mechanism for a component Allee effect. At low densities dispersers are less likely to find mates and establish new breeding units. However, many mathematical models for an Allee effect do not make a distinction between breeding group establishment and subsequent population growth. Our objective is to derive a spatially explicit mathematical model, where dispersers have a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities, and parameterize the model for wolf recolonization in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In this model, only the probability of establishing new breeding units is influenced by the reduced probability of finding mates at low densities. We analytically and numerically solve the model to determine the effect of a decreased probability in finding mates at low densities on population spread rate and density. Our results suggest that a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities may slow recolonization rate. PMID:16916526

  1. Interactions between spatially explicit conservation and management measures: implications for the governance of marine protected areas.

    PubMed

    Cárcamo, P Francisco; Gaymer, Carlos F

    2013-12-01

    Marine protected areas are not established in an institutional and governance vacuum and managers should pay attention to the wider social-ecological system in which they are immersed. This article examines Islas Choros-Damas Marine Reserve, a small marine protected area located in a highly productive and biologically diverse coastal marine ecosystem in northern Chile, and the interactions between human, institutional, and ecological dimensions beyond those existing within its boundaries. Through documents analysis, surveys, and interviews, we described marine reserve implementation (governing system) and the social and natural ecosystem-to-be-governed. We analyzed the interactions and the connections between the marine reserve and other spatially explicit conservation and/or management measures existing in the area and influencing management outcomes and governance. A top-down approach with poor stakeholder involvement characterized the implementation process. The marine reserve is highly connected with other spatially explicit measures and with a wider social-ecological system through various ecological processes and socio-economic interactions. Current institutional interactions with positive effects on the management and governance are scarce, although several potential interactions may be developed. For the study area, any management action must recognize interferences from outside conditions and consider some of them (e.g., ecotourism management) as cross-cutting actions for the entire social-ecological system. We consider that institutional interactions and the development of social networks are opportunities to any collective effort aiming to improve governance of Islas Choros-Damas marine reserve. Communication of connections and interactions between marine protected areas and the wider social-ecological system (as described in this study) is proposed as a strategy to improve stakeholder participation in Chilean marine protected areas.

  2. A method for spatially explicit representation of sub-watershed sediment yield, Southern California, USA.

    PubMed

    Booth, Derek B; Leverich, Glen; Downs, Peter W; Dusterhoff, Scott; Araya, Sebastian

    2014-05-01

    We present here a method to integrate geologic, topographic, and land-cover data in a geographic information system to provide a fine-scale, spatially explicit prediction of sediment yield to support management applications. The method is fundamentally qualitative but can be quantified using preexisting sediment-yield data, where available, to verify predictions using other independent data sets. In the 674-km(2) Sespe Creek watershed of southern California, 30 unique "geomorphic landscape units" (GLUs, defined by relatively homogenous areas of geology, hillslope gradient, and land cover) provide a framework for discriminating relative rates of sediment yield across this landscape. Field observations define three broad groupings of GLUs that are well-associated with types, relative magnitudes, and rates of erosion processes. These relative rates were then quantified using sediment-removal data from nearby debris basins, which allow relatively low-precision but robust calculations of both local and whole-watershed sediment yields, based on the key assumption that minimal sediment storage throughout most of the watershed supports near-equivalency of long-term rates of hillslope sediment production and watershed sediment yield. The accuracy of these calculations can be independently assessed using geologically inferred uplift rates and integrated suspended sediment measurements from mainstem Sespe Creek, which indicate watershed-averaged erosion rates between about 0.6-1.0 mm year(-1) and corresponding sediment yields of about 2 × 10(3) t km(-2) year(-1). A spatially explicit representation of sediment production is particularly useful in a region where wildfires, rapid urban development, and the downstream delivery of upstream sediment loads are critical drivers of both geomorphic processes and land-use management.

  3. A Method for Spatially Explicit Representation of Sub-watershed Sediment Yield, Southern California, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, Derek B.; Leverich, Glen; Downs, Peter W.; Dusterhoff, Scott; Araya, Sebastian

    2014-05-01

    We present here a method to integrate geologic, topographic, and land-cover data in a geographic information system to provide a fine-scale, spatially explicit prediction of sediment yield to support management applications. The method is fundamentally qualitative but can be quantified using preexisting sediment-yield data, where available, to verify predictions using other independent data sets. In the 674-km2 Sespe Creek watershed of southern California, 30 unique "geomorphic landscape units" (GLUs, defined by relatively homogenous areas of geology, hillslope gradient, and land cover) provide a framework for discriminating relative rates of sediment yield across this landscape. Field observations define three broad groupings of GLUs that are well-associated with types, relative magnitudes, and rates of erosion processes. These relative rates were then quantified using sediment-removal data from nearby debris basins, which allow relatively low-precision but robust calculations of both local and whole-watershed sediment yields, based on the key assumption that minimal sediment storage throughout most of the watershed supports near-equivalency of long-term rates of hillslope sediment production and watershed sediment yield. The accuracy of these calculations can be independently assessed using geologically inferred uplift rates and integrated suspended sediment measurements from mainstem Sespe Creek, which indicate watershed-averaged erosion rates between about 0.6-1.0 mm year-1 and corresponding sediment yields of about 2 × 103 t km-2 year-1. A spatially explicit representation of sediment production is particularly useful in a region where wildfires, rapid urban development, and the downstream delivery of upstream sediment loads are critical drivers of both geomorphic processes and land-use management.

  4. Interactions between spatially explicit conservation and management measures: implications for the governance of marine protected areas.

    PubMed

    Cárcamo, P Francisco; Gaymer, Carlos F

    2013-12-01

    Marine protected areas are not established in an institutional and governance vacuum and managers should pay attention to the wider social-ecological system in which they are immersed. This article examines Islas Choros-Damas Marine Reserve, a small marine protected area located in a highly productive and biologically diverse coastal marine ecosystem in northern Chile, and the interactions between human, institutional, and ecological dimensions beyond those existing within its boundaries. Through documents analysis, surveys, and interviews, we described marine reserve implementation (governing system) and the social and natural ecosystem-to-be-governed. We analyzed the interactions and the connections between the marine reserve and other spatially explicit conservation and/or management measures existing in the area and influencing management outcomes and governance. A top-down approach with poor stakeholder involvement characterized the implementation process. The marine reserve is highly connected with other spatially explicit measures and with a wider social-ecological system through various ecological processes and socio-economic interactions. Current institutional interactions with positive effects on the management and governance are scarce, although several potential interactions may be developed. For the study area, any management action must recognize interferences from outside conditions and consider some of them (e.g., ecotourism management) as cross-cutting actions for the entire social-ecological system. We consider that institutional interactions and the development of social networks are opportunities to any collective effort aiming to improve governance of Islas Choros-Damas marine reserve. Communication of connections and interactions between marine protected areas and the wider social-ecological system (as described in this study) is proposed as a strategy to improve stakeholder participation in Chilean marine protected areas. PMID:24091586

  5. Interactions Between Spatially Explicit Conservation and Management Measures: Implications for the Governance of Marine Protected Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cárcamo, P. Francisco; Gaymer, Carlos F.

    2013-12-01

    Marine protected areas are not established in an institutional and governance vacuum and managers should pay attention to the wider social-ecological system in which they are immersed. This article examines Islas Choros-Damas Marine Reserve, a small marine protected area located in a highly productive and biologically diverse coastal marine ecosystem in northern Chile, and the interactions between human, institutional, and ecological dimensions beyond those existing within its boundaries. Through documents analysis, surveys, and interviews, we described marine reserve implementation (governing system) and the social and natural ecosystem-to-be-governed. We analyzed the interactions and the connections between the marine reserve and other spatially explicit conservation and/or management measures existing in the area and influencing management outcomes and governance. A top-down approach with poor stakeholder involvement characterized the implementation process. The marine reserve is highly connected with other spatially explicit measures and with a wider social-ecological system through various ecological processes and socio-economic interactions. Current institutional interactions with positive effects on the management and governance are scarce, although several potential interactions may be developed. For the study area, any management action must recognize interferences from outside conditions and consider some of them (e.g., ecotourism management) as cross-cutting actions for the entire social-ecological system. We consider that institutional interactions and the development of social networks are opportunities to any collective effort aiming to improve governance of Islas Choros-Damas marine reserve. Communication of connections and interactions between marine protected areas and the wider social-ecological system (as described in this study) is proposed as a strategy to improve stakeholder participation in Chilean marine protected areas.

  6. Predicting Fish Growth Potential and Identifying Water Quality Constraints: A Spatially-Explicit Bioenergetics Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budy, Phaedra; Baker, Matthew; Dahle, Samuel K.

    2011-10-01

    Anthropogenic impairment of water bodies represents a global environmental concern, yet few attempts have successfully linked fish performance to thermal habitat suitability and fewer have distinguished co-varying water quality constraints. We interfaced fish bioenergetics, field measurements, and Thermal Remote Imaging to generate a spatially-explicit, high-resolution surface of fish growth potential, and next employed a structured hypothesis to detect relationships among measures of fish performance and co-varying water quality constraints. Our thermal surface of fish performance captured the amount and spatial-temporal arrangement of thermally-suitable habitat for three focal species in an extremely heterogeneous reservoir, but interpretation of this pattern was initially confounded by seasonal covariation of water residence time and water quality. Subsequent path analysis revealed that in terms of seasonal patterns in growth potential, catfish and walleye responded to temperature, positively and negatively, respectively; crappie and walleye responded to eutrophy (negatively). At the high eutrophy levels observed in this system, some desired fishes appear to suffer from excessive cultural eutrophication within the context of elevated temperatures whereas others appear to be largely unaffected or even enhanced. Our overall findings do not lead to the conclusion that this system is degraded by pollution; however, they do highlight the need to use a sensitive focal species in the process of determining allowable nutrient loading and as integrators of habitat suitability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We provide an integrated approach useful for quantifying fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints on fish performance at spatial scales appropriate for whole-system management.

  7. Hydroclimatology of Dual-Peak Annual Cholera Incidence: Insights from a Spatially Explicit Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-12-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g. sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of precipitation and river flows. To single out the single out the hydroclimatologic controls on the prevalence patterns in a non-specific geographical context, we first apply the model to Optimal Channel Networks as a general model of hydrological networks. Moreover, we impose a uniform distribution of population. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely precipitation, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. We then proceed applying the model to the specific settings of Bay of Bengal accounting for the actual river networks (derived from digital terrain map manipulations), the proper distribution of population (estimated from downscaling of census data based on remotely sensed features) and precipitation patterns. Overall our

  8. Spatially Explicit Modeling Reveals Cephalopod Distributions Match Contrasting Trophic Pathways in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    PubMed Central

    Puerta, Patricia; Hunsicker, Mary E.; Quetglas, Antoni; Álvarez-Berastegui, Diego; Esteban, Antonio; González, María; Hidalgo, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Populations of the same species can experience different responses to the environment throughout their distributional range as a result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in habitat conditions. This highlights the importance of understanding the processes governing species distribution at local scales. However, research on species distribution often averages environmental covariates across large geographic areas, missing variability in population-environment interactions within geographically distinct regions. We used spatially explicit models to identify interactions between species and environmental, including chlorophyll a (Chla) and sea surface temperature (SST), and trophic (prey density) conditions, along with processes governing the distribution of two cephalopods with contrasting life-histories (octopus and squid) across the western Mediterranean Sea. This approach is relevant for cephalopods, since their population dynamics are especially sensitive to variations in habitat conditions and rarely stable in abundance and location. The regional distributions of the two cephalopod species matched two different trophic pathways present in the western Mediterranean Sea, associated with the Gulf of Lion upwelling and the Ebro river discharges respectively. The effects of the studied environmental and trophic conditions were spatially variant in both species, with usually stronger effects along their distributional boundaries. We identify areas where prey availability limited the abundance of cephalopod populations as well as contrasting effects of temperature in the warmest regions. Despite distributional patterns matching productive areas, a general negative effect of Chla on cephalopod densities suggests that competition pressure is common in the study area. Additionally, results highlight the importance of trophic interactions, beyond other common environmental factors, in shaping the distribution of cephalopod populations. Our study presents a valuable

  9. Spatially Explicit Analysis of Metal Transfer to Biota: Influence of Soil Contamination and Landscape

    PubMed Central

    Fritsch, Clémentine; Cœurdassier, Michaël; Giraudoux, Patrick; Raoul, Francis; Douay, Francis; Rieffel, Dominique; de Vaufleury, Annette; Scheifler, Renaud

    2011-01-01

    Concepts and developments for a new field in ecotoxicology, referred to as “landscape ecotoxicology,” were proposed in the 1990s; however, to date, few studies have been developed in this emergent field. In fact, there is a strong interest in developing this area, both for renewing the concepts and tools used in ecotoxicology as well as for responding to practical issues, such as risk assessment. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial heterogeneity of metal bioaccumulation in animals in order to identify the role of spatially explicit factors, such as landscape as well as total and extractable metal concentrations in soils. Over a smelter-impacted area, we studied the accumulation of trace metals (TMs: Cd, Pb and Zn) in invertebrates (the grove snail Cepaea sp and the glass snail Oxychilus draparnaudi) and vertebrates (the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula). Total and CaCl2-extractable concentrations of TMs were measured in soils from woody patches where the animals were captured. TM concentrations in animals exhibited a high spatial heterogeneity. They increased with soil pollution and were better explained by total rather than CaCl2-extractable TM concentrations, except in Cepaea sp. TM levels in animals and their variations along the pollution gradient were modulated by the landscape, and this influence was species and metal specific. Median soil metal concentrations (predicted by universal kriging) were calculated in buffers of increasing size and were related to bioaccumulation. The spatial scale at which TM concentrations in animals and soils showed the strongest correlations varied between metals, species and landscapes. The potential underlying mechanisms of landscape influence (community functioning, behaviour, etc.) are discussed. Present results highlight the need for the further development of landscape ecotoxicology and multi-scale approaches, which would enhance our understanding of

  10. Spatially Explicit Modeling Reveals Cephalopod Distributions Match Contrasting Trophic Pathways in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Puerta, Patricia; Hunsicker, Mary E; Quetglas, Antoni; Álvarez-Berastegui, Diego; Esteban, Antonio; González, María; Hidalgo, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Populations of the same species can experience different responses to the environment throughout their distributional range as a result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in habitat conditions. This highlights the importance of understanding the processes governing species distribution at local scales. However, research on species distribution often averages environmental covariates across large geographic areas, missing variability in population-environment interactions within geographically distinct regions. We used spatially explicit models to identify interactions between species and environmental, including chlorophyll a (Chla) and sea surface temperature (SST), and trophic (prey density) conditions, along with processes governing the distribution of two cephalopods with contrasting life-histories (octopus and squid) across the western Mediterranean Sea. This approach is relevant for cephalopods, since their population dynamics are especially sensitive to variations in habitat conditions and rarely stable in abundance and location. The regional distributions of the two cephalopod species matched two different trophic pathways present in the western Mediterranean Sea, associated with the Gulf of Lion upwelling and the Ebro river discharges respectively. The effects of the studied environmental and trophic conditions were spatially variant in both species, with usually stronger effects along their distributional boundaries. We identify areas where prey availability limited the abundance of cephalopod populations as well as contrasting effects of temperature in the warmest regions. Despite distributional patterns matching productive areas, a general negative effect of Chla on cephalopod densities suggests that competition pressure is common in the study area. Additionally, results highlight the importance of trophic interactions, beyond other common environmental factors, in shaping the distribution of cephalopod populations. Our study presents a valuable

  11. Predicting fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints: a spatially-explicit bioenergetics approach.

    PubMed

    Budy, Phaedra; Baker, Matthew; Dahle, Samuel K

    2011-10-01

    Anthropogenic impairment of water bodies represents a global environmental concern, yet few attempts have successfully linked fish performance to thermal habitat suitability and fewer have distinguished co-varying water quality constraints. We interfaced fish bioenergetics, field measurements, and Thermal Remote Imaging to generate a spatially-explicit, high-resolution surface of fish growth potential, and next employed a structured hypothesis to detect relationships among measures of fish performance and co-varying water quality constraints. Our thermal surface of fish performance captured the amount and spatial-temporal arrangement of thermally-suitable habitat for three focal species in an extremely heterogeneous reservoir, but interpretation of this pattern was initially confounded by seasonal covariation of water residence time and water quality. Subsequent path analysis revealed that in terms of seasonal patterns in growth potential, catfish and walleye responded to temperature, positively and negatively, respectively; crappie and walleye responded to eutrophy (negatively). At the high eutrophy levels observed in this system, some desired fishes appear to suffer from excessive cultural eutrophication within the context of elevated temperatures whereas others appear to be largely unaffected or even enhanced. Our overall findings do not lead to the conclusion that this system is degraded by pollution; however, they do highlight the need to use a sensitive focal species in the process of determining allowable nutrient loading and as integrators of habitat suitability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We provide an integrated approach useful for quantifying fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints on fish performance at spatial scales appropriate for whole-system management.

  12. Spatially explicit models, generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns of waterborne disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rinaldo, A.; Gatto, M.; Mari, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2012-12-01

    Metacommunity and individual-based theoretical models are studied in the context of the spreading of infections of water-borne diseases along the ecological corridors defined by river basins and networks of human mobility. The overarching claim is that mathematical models can indeed provide predictive insight into the course of an ongoing epidemic, potentially aiding real-time emergency management in allocating health care resources and by anticipating the impact of alternative interventions. To support the claim, we examine the ex-post reliability of published predictions of the 2010-2011 Haiti cholera outbreak from four independent modeling studies that appeared almost simultaneously during the unfolding epidemic. For each modeled epidemic trajectory, it is assessed how well predictions reproduced the observed spatial and temporal features of the outbreak to date. The impact of different approaches is considered to the modeling of the spatial spread of V. cholera, the mechanics of cholera transmission and in accounting for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals within different local human communities. A generalized model for Haitian epidemic cholera and the related uncertainty is thus constructed and applied to the year-long dataset of reported cases now available. Specific emphasis will be dedicated to models of human mobility, a fundamental infection mechanism. Lessons learned and open issues are discussed and placed in perspective, supporting the conclusion that, despite differences in methods that can be tested through model-guided field validation, mathematical modeling of large-scale outbreaks emerges as an essential component of future cholera epidemic control. Although explicit spatial modeling is made routinely possible by widespread data mapping of hydrology, transportation infrastructure, population distribution, and sanitation, the precise condition under which a waterborne disease epidemic can start in a spatially explicit setting is

  13. Production of stream habitat gradients by montane watersheds: Hypothesis tests based on spatially explicit path analyses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Isaak, D.J.; Hubert, W.A.

    2001-01-01

    We studied how the features of mountain watersheds interact to cause gradients in three stream attributes: baseflow stream widths, total alkalinity, and stream slope. A priori hypotheses were developed before being tested in a series of path analyses using data from 90 stream reaches on 24 second- to fourth-order streams across a fifth-order Rocky Mountain watershed. Because most of the conventional least squares regressions initially calculated for the path analyses had spatially correlated residuals (13 of 15 regressions), spatially explicit regressions were often used to derive more accurate parameter estimates and significance tests. Our final working hypotheses accounted for most of the variation in baseflow stream width (73%), total alkalinity (74%), and stream slope (78%) and provide systemic views of watershed function by depicting interactions that occur between geomorphology, land surface features, and stream attributes. Stream gradients originated mainly from the unidirectional changes in geomorphic features that occur over the lengths of streams. Land surface features were of secondary importance and, because they change less predictably relative to the stream, appear to modify the rate at which stream gradients change.

  14. Roots in space: a spatially explicit model for below-ground competition in plants.

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Erin E; Brown, Joel S; Moll, Jason D

    2007-04-01

    Game theory provides an untapped framework for predicting how below-ground competition will influence root proliferation in a spatially explicit environment. We model root competition for space as an evolutionary game. In response to nutrient competition between plants, an individual's optimal strategy (the spatial distribution of root proliferation) depends on the rooting strategies of neighbouring plants. The model defines and predicts the fundamental (in the absence of competition) and realized (in the presence of competition) root space of an individual plant. Overlapping fundamental root spaces guarantee smaller, yet still overlapping, realized root spaces as individuals concede some but not all space to a neighbour's roots. Root overlap becomes an intentional consequence of the neighbouring plants playing a nutrient foraging game. Root proliferation and regions of root overlap should increase with soil fertility, decline with the distance cost of root production (e.g. soil compactness) and shift with competitive asymmetries. Seemingly erratic patterns of root proliferation and root overlap become the expected outcome of nutrient foraging games played in soils with small-scale heterogeneities in nutrient availability. PMID:17251098

  15. Exploring behavior of an unusual megaherbivore: A spatially explicit foraging model of the hippopotamus

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lewison, R.L.; Carter, J.

    2004-01-01

    Herbivore foraging theories have been developed for and tested on herbivores across a range of sizes. Due to logistical constraints, however, little research has focused on foraging behavior of megaherbivores. Here we present a research approach that explores megaherbivore foraging behavior, and assesses the applicability of foraging theories developed on smaller herbivores to megafauna. With simulation models as reference points for the analysis of empirical data, we investigate foraging strategies of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). Using a spatially explicit individual based foraging model, we apply traditional herbivore foraging strategies to a model hippopotamus, compare model output, and then relate these results to field data from wild hippopotami. Hippopotami appear to employ foraging strategies that respond to vegetation characteristics, such as vegetation quality, as well as spatial reference information, namely distance to a water source. Model predictions, field observations, and comparisons of the two support that hippopotami generally conform to the central place foraging construct. These analyses point to the applicability of general herbivore foraging concepts to megaherbivores, but also point to important differences between hippopotami and other herbivores. Our synergistic approach of models as reference points for empirical data highlights a useful method of behavioral analysis for hard-to-study megafauna. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Maintaining the Conservation Value of Shifting Cultivation Landscapes Requires Spatially Explicit Interventions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robiglio, Valentina; Sinclair, Fergus

    2011-08-01

    Fallow vegetation within landscapes dominated by shifting cultivation represents a woody species pool of critical importance with considerable potential for biodiversity conservation. Here, through the analysis of factors that influence the early stages of fallow vegetation regrowth in two contrasting forest margin landscapes in Southern Cameroon, we assessed the impact of current trends of land use intensification and expansion of the cultivated areas, upon the conservation potential of shifting cultivation landscapes. We combined the analysis of plot and landscape scale factors and identified a complex set of variables that influence fallow regrowth processes in particular the characteristics of the agricultural matrix and the distance from forest. Overall we observed a decline in the fallow species pool, with composition becoming increasingly dominated by species adapted to recurrent disturbance. It is clear that without intervention and if present intensification trends continue, the potential of fallow vegetation to contribute to biodiversity conservation declines because of a reduced capacity, (1) to recover forest vegetation with anything like its original species composition, (2) to connect less disturbed forest patches for forest dependent organisms. Strategies to combat biodiversity loss, including promotion of agroforestry practices and the increase of old secondary forest cover, will need not only to operate at a landscape scale but also to be spatially explicit, reflecting the spatial pattern of species reservoirs and dispersal strategies and human usage across landscapes.

  17. Spatially explicit rangeland erosion monitoring using high-resolution digital aerial imagery

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gillan, Jeffrey K.; Karl, Jason W.; Barger, Nichole N.; Elaksher, Ahmed; Duniway, Michael C.

    2016-01-01

    Nearly all of the ecosystem services supported by rangelands, including production of livestock forage, carbon sequestration, and provisioning of clean water, are negatively impacted by soil erosion. Accordingly, monitoring the severity, spatial extent, and rate of soil erosion is essential for long-term sustainable management. Traditional field-based methods of monitoring erosion (sediment traps, erosion pins, and bridges) can be labor intensive and therefore are generally limited in spatial intensity and/or extent. There is a growing effort to monitor natural resources at broad scales, which is driving the need for new soil erosion monitoring tools. One remote-sensing technique that can be used to monitor soil movement is a time series of digital elevation models (DEMs) created using aerial photogrammetry methods. By geographically coregistering the DEMs and subtracting one surface from the other, an estimate of soil elevation change can be created. Such analysis enables spatially explicit quantification and visualization of net soil movement including erosion, deposition, and redistribution. We constructed DEMs (12-cm ground sampling distance) on the basis of aerial photography immediately before and 1 year after a vegetation removal treatment on a 31-ha Piñon-Juniper woodland in southeastern Utah to evaluate the use of aerial photography in detecting soil surface change. On average, we were able to detect surface elevation change of ± 8−9cm and greater, which was sufficient for the large amount of soil movement exhibited on the study area. Detecting more subtle soil erosion could be achieved using the same technique with higher-resolution imagery from lower-flying aircraft such as unmanned aerial vehicles. DEM differencing and process-focused field methods provided complementary information and a more complete assessment of soil loss and movement than any single technique alone. Photogrammetric DEM differencing could be used as a technique to

  18. Density-dependent home-range size revealed by spatially explicit capture–recapture

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Efford, M.G.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Jhala, Y.V.; Qureshi, Q.

    2016-01-01

    The size of animal home ranges often varies inversely with population density among populations of a species. This fact has implications for population monitoring using spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, in which both the scale of home-range movements σ and population density D usually appear as parameters, and both may vary among populations. It will often be appropriate to model a structural relationship between population-specific values of these parameters, rather than to assume independence. We suggest re-parameterizing the SECR model using kp = σp √Dp, where kp relates to the degree of overlap between home ranges and the subscript p distinguishes populations. We observe that kp is often nearly constant for populations spanning a range of densities. This justifies fitting a model in which the separate kp are replaced by the single parameter k and σp is a density-dependent derived parameter. Continuous density-dependent spatial variation in σ may also be modelled, using a scaled non-Euclidean distance between detectors and the locations of animals. We illustrate these methods with data from automatic photography of tigers (Panthera tigris) across India, in which the variation is among populations, from mist-netting of ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in Maryland, USA, in which the variation is within a single population over time, and from live-trapping of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand, modelling spatial variation within one population. Possible applications and limitations of the methods are discussed. A model in which kp is constant, while density varies, provides a parsimonious null model for SECR. The parameter k of the null model is a concise summary of the empirical relationship between home-range size and density that is useful in comparative studies. We expect deviations from this model, particularly the dependence of kp on covariates, to be biologically interesting.

  19. Anthropogenic and natural methane fluxes in Switzerland synthesized within a spatially-explicit inventory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiller, R. V.; Bretscher, D.; DelSontro, T.; Diem, T.; Eugster, W.; Henneberger, R.; Hobi, S.; Hodson, E.; Imer, D.; Kreuzer, M.; Künzle, T.; Merbold, L.; Niklaus, P. A.; Rihm, B.; Schellenberger, A.; Schroth, M. H.; Schubert, C. J.; Siegrist, H.; Stieger, J.; Buchmann, N.; Brunner, D.

    2013-09-01

    We present the first high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) gridded methane (CH4) emission inventory for Switzerland, which integrates the national emission totals reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and recent CH4 flux studies conducted by research groups across Switzerland. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, we also include natural and semi-natural CH4 fluxes, i.e., emissions from lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, wild animals as well as uptake by forest soils. National CH4 emissions were disaggregated using detailed geostatistical information on source locations and their spatial extent and process- or area-specific emission factors. In Switzerland, the highest CH4 emissions in 2011 originated from the agricultural sector (150 Gg CH4 yr-1), mainly produced by ruminants and manure management, followed by emissions from waste management (15 Gg CH4 yr-1) mainly from landfills and the energy sector (12 Gg CH4 yr-1), which was dominated by emissions from natural gas distribution. Compared to the anthropogenic sources, emissions from natural and semi-natural sources were relatively small (6 Gg CH4 yr-1), making up only 3 % of the total emissions in Switzerland. CH4 fluxes from agricultural soils were estimated to be not significantly different from zero (between -1.5 and 0 Gg CH4 yr-1), while forest soils are a CH4 sink (approx. -2.8 Gg CH4 yr-1), partially offsetting other natural emissions. Estimates of uncertainties are provided for the different sources, including an estimate of spatial disaggregation errors deduced from a comparison with a global (EDGAR v4.2) and a European CH4 inventory (TNO/MACC). This new spatially-explicit emission inventory for Switzerland will provide valuable input for regional scale atmospheric modeling and inverse source estimation.

  20. Anthropogenic and natural methane fluxes in Switzerland synthesized within a spatially explicit inventory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiller, R. V.; Bretscher, D.; DelSontro, T.; Diem, T.; Eugster, W.; Henneberger, R.; Hobi, S.; Hodson, E.; Imer, D.; Kreuzer, M.; Künzle, T.; Merbold, L.; Niklaus, P. A.; Rihm, B.; Schellenberger, A.; Schroth, M. H.; Schubert, C. J.; Siegrist, H.; Stieger, J.; Buchmann, N.; Brunner, D.

    2014-04-01

    We present the first high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) gridded methane (CH4) emission inventory for Switzerland, which integrates 90 % of the national emission totals reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and recent CH4 flux studies conducted by research groups across Switzerland. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, we also include natural and semi-natural CH4 fluxes, i.e., emissions from lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, wild animals as well as uptake by forest soils. National CH4 emissions were disaggregated using detailed geostatistical information on source locations and their spatial extent and process- or area-specific emission factors. In Switzerland, the highest CH4 emissions in 2011 originated from the agricultural sector (150 Gg CH4 yr-1), mainly produced by ruminants and manure management, followed by emissions from waste management (15 Gg CH4 yr-1) mainly from landfills and the energy sector (12 Gg CH4 yr-1), which was dominated by emissions from natural gas distribution. Compared with the anthropogenic sources, emissions from natural and semi-natural sources were relatively small (6 Gg CH4 yr-1), making up only 3% of the total emissions in Switzerland. CH4 fluxes from agricultural soils were estimated to be not significantly different from zero (between -1.5 and 0 Gg CH4 yr-1), while forest soils are a CH4 sink (approx. -2.8 Gg CH4 yr-1), partially offsetting other natural emissions. Estimates of uncertainties are provided for the different sources, including an estimate of spatial disaggregation errors deduced from a comparison with a global (EDGAR v4.2) and an European (TNO/MACC) CH4 inventory. This new spatially explicit emission inventory for Switzerland will provide valuable input for regional-scale atmospheric modeling and inverse source estimation.

  1. Spatially explicit Schistosoma infection risk in eastern Africa using Bayesian geostatistical modelling.

    PubMed

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Chimfwembe, Kingford; Mushinge, Gabriel; Simoonga, Christopher; Kabatereine, Narcis B; Kristensen, Thomas K; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2013-11-01

    Schistosomiasis remains one of the most prevalent parasitic diseases in the tropics and subtropics, but current statistics are outdated due to demographic and ecological transformations and ongoing control efforts. Reliable risk estimates are important to plan and evaluate interventions in a spatially explicit and cost-effective manner. We analysed a large ensemble of georeferenced survey data derived from an open-access neglected tropical diseases database to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium for a total of 13 countries of eastern Africa. Bayesian geostatistical models based on climatic and other environmental data were used to account for potential spatial clustering in spatially structured exposures. Geostatistical variable selection was employed to reduce the set of covariates. Alignment factors were implemented to combine surveys on different age-groups and to acquire separate estimates for individuals aged ≤20 years and entire communities. Prevalence estimates were combined with population statistics to obtain country-specific numbers of Schistosoma infections. We estimate that 122 million individuals in eastern Africa are currently infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. Country-specific population-adjusted prevalence estimates range between 12.9% (Uganda) and 34.5% (Mozambique) for S. mansoni and between 11.9% (Djibouti) and 40.9% (Mozambique) for S. haematobium. Our models revealed that infection risk in Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia and Sudan might be considerably higher than previously reported, while in Mozambique and Tanzania, the risk might be lower than current estimates suggest. Our empirical, large-scale, high-resolution infection risk estimates for S. mansoni and S. haematobium in eastern Africa can guide future control interventions and provide a benchmark for subsequent monitoring and evaluation activities.

  2. Spatially explicit Schistosoma infection risk in eastern Africa using Bayesian geostatistical modelling.

    PubMed

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Chimfwembe, Kingford; Mushinge, Gabriel; Simoonga, Christopher; Kabatereine, Narcis B; Kristensen, Thomas K; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2013-11-01

    Schistosomiasis remains one of the most prevalent parasitic diseases in the tropics and subtropics, but current statistics are outdated due to demographic and ecological transformations and ongoing control efforts. Reliable risk estimates are important to plan and evaluate interventions in a spatially explicit and cost-effective manner. We analysed a large ensemble of georeferenced survey data derived from an open-access neglected tropical diseases database to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium for a total of 13 countries of eastern Africa. Bayesian geostatistical models based on climatic and other environmental data were used to account for potential spatial clustering in spatially structured exposures. Geostatistical variable selection was employed to reduce the set of covariates. Alignment factors were implemented to combine surveys on different age-groups and to acquire separate estimates for individuals aged ≤20 years and entire communities. Prevalence estimates were combined with population statistics to obtain country-specific numbers of Schistosoma infections. We estimate that 122 million individuals in eastern Africa are currently infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. Country-specific population-adjusted prevalence estimates range between 12.9% (Uganda) and 34.5% (Mozambique) for S. mansoni and between 11.9% (Djibouti) and 40.9% (Mozambique) for S. haematobium. Our models revealed that infection risk in Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia and Sudan might be considerably higher than previously reported, while in Mozambique and Tanzania, the risk might be lower than current estimates suggest. Our empirical, large-scale, high-resolution infection risk estimates for S. mansoni and S. haematobium in eastern Africa can guide future control interventions and provide a benchmark for subsequent monitoring and evaluation activities. PMID:22019933

  3. A hydrologically explicit, spatially exact, classification of landforms for Canada at 1:500,000 scale.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacMillan, Robert A.; Geng, Xiaoyuan; Smith, Scott; Zawadzka, Joanna; Hengl, Tom

    2016-04-01

    A new approach for classifying landform types has been developed and applied to all of Canada using a 250 m DEM. The resulting LandMapR classification has been designed to provide a stable and consistent spatial fabric to act as initial proto-polygons to be used in updating the current 1:1 M scale Soil Landscapes of Canada map to 1:500,000 scale. There is a desire to make the current SLC polygon fabric more consistent across the country, more correctly aligned to observable hydrological and landscape features, more spatially exact, more detailed and more interpretable. The approach is essentially a modification of the Hammond (1954) criteria for classifying macro landform types as implemented for computerized analysis by Dikau (1989, 1991) and Brabyn (1998). The major modification is that the key input variables of local relief and relative position in the landscape are computed for specific hillslopes that occur between individual, explicitly defined, channels and divides. While most approaches, including Dikau et al., (1991) and SOTER (Dobos et al., 2005) compute relative relief and landscape position within a neighborhood analysis window (NAW) of some fixed size (9,600 m and 1 km respectively) the LandMapR method assesses these variables based on explicit analysis of flow paths between locally defined divides and channels (or lakes). We have modified the Hammond criteria by splitting the lowest relief class of 0-30 m into 4 classes of 0-0 m, 0-1 m, 1-10 m and 10-30 m) in order to be able to better differentiate subtle landform features in areas of low relief. Essentially this enables recognition of lakes and open water (0 relief and 0 slope), shorelines and littoral zones (0-1 m), nearly flat, low-relief landforms (1-10 m) and low relief undulating plains (10-30 m). We also modified the Hammond approach for separating upper versus lower landform positions used to differentiate flat areas in uplands from flat lowlands. We instead differentiate 3 relative slope

  4. Spatially explicit estimates of stock size, structure and biomass of North Atlantic albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Dragon, A.-C.; Arrizabalaga, H.

    2014-09-01

    The development of the ecosystem approach and models for the management of ocean marine resources requires easy access to standard validated data sets of historical catch data for the main exploited species. They are used to measure the impact of biomass removal by fisheries and to evaluate the models outputs, while the use of a standard data set facilitates models inter-comparison. Unlike standard stock assessment models, new state-of-the-art ecosystem models require geo-referenced fishing data with the highest possible spatial resolution. This study presents an application to the North Atlantic albacore tuna stock with a careful definition and validation of a spatially explicit fishing data set prepared from publicly available sources (ICCAT) for its use in a spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model (SEAPODYM) to provide the first spatially explicit estimate of albacore density in the North Atlantic by life stage. Density distributions together with the fishing data used for the estimates are provided at http://doi.pangaea.de/ (see section Source Data References) (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828115; doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828226; doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828227; doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828228; doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828229; doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828230; doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828231; doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828232; doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828232; doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.828233; Spatially-Explicit Estimation of Geographical Representation in Large-Scale Species Distribution Datasets

    PubMed Central

    Kalwij, Jesse M.; Robertson, Mark P.; Ronk, Argo; Zobel, Martin; Pärtel, Meelis

    2014-01-01

    Much ecological research relies on existing multispecies distribution datasets. Such datasets, however, can vary considerably in quality, extent, resolution or taxonomic coverage. We provide a framework for a spatially-explicit evaluation of geographical representation within large-scale species distribution datasets, using the comparison of an occurrence atlas with a range atlas dataset as a working example. Specifically, we compared occurrence maps for 3773 taxa from the widely-used Atlas Florae Europaeae (AFE) with digitised range maps for 2049 taxa of the lesser-known Atlas of North European Vascular Plants. We calculated the level of agreement at a 50-km spatial resolution using average latitudinal and longitudinal species range, and area of occupancy. Agreement in species distribution was calculated and mapped using Jaccard similarity index and a reduced major axis (RMA) regression analysis of species richness between the entire atlases (5221 taxa in total) and between co-occurring species (601 taxa). We found no difference in distribution ranges or in the area of occupancy frequency distribution, indicating that atlases were sufficiently overlapping for a valid comparison. The similarity index map showed high levels of agreement for central, western, and northern Europe. The RMA regression confirmed that geographical representation of AFE was low in areas with a sparse data recording history (e.g., Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine). For co-occurring species in south-eastern Europe, however, the Atlas of North European Vascular Plants showed remarkably higher richness estimations. Geographical representation of atlas data can be much more heterogeneous than often assumed. Level of agreement between datasets can be used to evaluate geographical representation within datasets. Merging atlases into a single dataset is worthwhile in spite of methodological differences, and helps to fill gaps in our knowledge of species distribution ranges. Species distribution

  5. Spatially-explicit estimation of geographical representation in large-scale species distribution datasets.

    PubMed

    Kalwij, Jesse M; Robertson, Mark P; Ronk, Argo; Zobel, Martin; Pärtel, Meelis

    2014-01-01

    Much ecological research relies on existing multispecies distribution datasets. Such datasets, however, can vary considerably in quality, extent, resolution or taxonomic coverage. We provide a framework for a spatially-explicit evaluation of geographical representation within large-scale species distribution datasets, using the comparison of an occurrence atlas with a range atlas dataset as a working example. Specifically, we compared occurrence maps for 3773 taxa from the widely-used Atlas Florae Europaeae (AFE) with digitised range maps for 2049 taxa of the lesser-known Atlas of North European Vascular Plants. We calculated the level of agreement at a 50-km spatial resolution using average latitudinal and longitudinal species range, and area of occupancy. Agreement in species distribution was calculated and mapped using Jaccard similarity index and a reduced major axis (RMA) regression analysis of species richness between the entire atlases (5221 taxa in total) and between co-occurring species (601 taxa). We found no difference in distribution ranges or in the area of occupancy frequency distribution, indicating that atlases were sufficiently overlapping for a valid comparison. The similarity index map showed high levels of agreement for central, western, and northern Europe. The RMA regression confirmed that geographical representation of AFE was low in areas with a sparse data recording history (e.g., Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine). For co-occurring species in south-eastern Europe, however, the Atlas of North European Vascular Plants showed remarkably higher richness estimations. Geographical representation of atlas data can be much more heterogeneous than often assumed. Level of agreement between datasets can be used to evaluate geographical representation within datasets. Merging atlases into a single dataset is worthwhile in spite of methodological differences, and helps to fill gaps in our knowledge of species distribution ranges. Species distribution

  6. Spatially and Financially Explicit Population Viability Analysis of Maculinea alcon in The Netherlands

    PubMed Central

    Radchuk, Viktoriia; WallisDeVries, Michiel F.; Schtickzelle, Nicolas

    2012-01-01

    Background The conservation of species structured in metapopulations involves an important dilemma of resource allocation: should investments be directed at restoring/enlarging habitat patches or increasing connectivity. This is still an open question for Maculinea species despite they are among the best studied and emblematic butterfly species, because none of the population dynamics models developed so far included dispersal. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed the first spatially and financially explicit Population Viability Analysis model for Maculinea alcon, using field data from The Netherlands. Implemented using the RAMAS/GIS platform, the model incorporated both local (contest density dependence, environmental and demographic stochasticities), and regional population dynamics (dispersal rates between habitat patches). We selected four habitat patch networks, contrasting in several basic features (number of habitat patches, their quality, connectivity, and occupancy rate) to test how these features are affecting the ability to enhance population viability of four basic management options, designed to incur the same costs: habitat enlargement, habitat quality improvement, creation of new stepping stone habitat patches, and reintroduction of captive-reared butterflies. The PVA model was validated by the close match between its predictions and independent field observations on the patch occupancy pattern. The four patch networks differed in their sensitivity to model parameters, as well as in the ranking of management options. Overall, the best cost-effective option was enlargement of existing habitat patches, followed by either habitat quality improvement or creation of stepping stones depending on the network features. Reintroduction was predicted to generally be inefficient, except in one specific patch network. Conclusions/Significance Our results underline the importance of spatial and regional aspects (dispersal and connectivity) in determining

  7. Landscape-based spatially explicit species index models for everglades restoration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Curnutt, J.L.; Comiskey, J.; Nott, M.P.; Gross, L.J.

    2000-01-01

    As part of the effort to restore the ???10 000-km2 Everglades drainage in southern Florida, USA, we developed spatially explicit species index (SESI) models of a number of species and species groups. In this paper we describe the methodology and results of three such models: those for the Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow and the Snail Kite, and the species group model of long-legged wading birds. SESI models are designed to produce relative comparisons of one management alternative to a base scenario or to another alternative. The model outputs do not provide an exact quantitative prediction of future biotic group responses, but rather, when applying the same input data and different hydrologic plans, the models provide the best available means to compare the relative response of the biotic groups. We compared four alternative hydrologic management scenarios to a base scenario (i.e., predicted conditions assuming that current water management practices continue). We ranked the results of the comparisons for each set of models. No one scenario was beneficial to all species; however, they provide a uniform assessment, based on the best available observational information, of relative species responses to alternative water-management plans. As such, these models were used extensively in the restoration planning.

  8. Cholera in the Lake Kivu region (DRC): Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-07-01

    Mathematical models of cholera dynamics can not only help in identifying environmental drivers and processes that influence disease transmission, but may also represent valuable tools for the prediction of the epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. They have been ravaging the shore of Lake Kivu in the east of the country repeatedly during the last decades. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed data sets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multiyear data set of reported cholera cases. The best fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via proper cross validation. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross validation. Some drivers (such as human mobility and rainfall) are retained only by a few models, possibly indicating that the mechanisms through which they influence cholera dynamics in the area will have to be investigated further.

  9. Behavioral response to contamination risk information in a spatially explicit groundwater environment: Experimental evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jingyuan; Michael, Holly A.; Duke, Joshua M.; Messer, Kent D.; Suter, Jordan F.

    2014-08-01

    This paper assesses the effectiveness of aquifer monitoring information in achieving more sustainable use of a groundwater resource in the absence of management policy. Groundwater user behavior in the face of an irreversible contamination threat is studied by applying methods of experimental economics to scenarios that combine a physics-based, spatially explicit, numerical groundwater model with different representations of information about an aquifer and its risk of contamination. The results suggest that the threat of catastrophic contamination affects pumping decisions: pumping is significantly reduced in experiments where contamination is possible compared to those where pumping cost is the only factor discouraging groundwater use. The level of information about the state of the aquifer also affects extraction behavior. Pumping rates differ when information that synthesizes data on aquifer conditions (a "risk gauge") is provided, despite invariant underlying economic incentives, and this result does not depend on whether the risk information is location-specific or from a whole aquifer perspective. Interestingly, users increase pumping when the risk gauge signals good aquifer status compared to a no-gauge treatment. When the gauge suggests impending contamination, however, pumping declines significantly, resulting in a lower probability of contamination. The study suggests that providing relatively simple aquifer condition guidance derived from monitoring data can lead to more sustainable use of groundwater resources.

  10. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for reconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection, and carbon conservation in Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Koh, Lian Pin; Ghazoul, Jaboury

    2010-01-01

    Palm oil is the world's most important vegetable oil in terms of production quantity. Indonesia, the world's largest palm-oil producer, plans to double its production by 2020, with unclear implications for the other national priorities of food (rice) production, forest and biodiversity protection, and carbon conservation. We modeled the outcomes of alternative development scenarios and show that every single-priority scenario had substantial tradeoffs associated with other priorities. The exception was a hybrid approach wherein expansion targeted degraded and agricultural lands that are most productive for oil palm, least suitable for food cultivation, and contain the lowest carbon stocks. This approach avoided any loss in forest or biodiversity and substantially ameliorated the impacts of oil-palm expansion on carbon stocks (limiting net loss to 191.6 million tons) and annual food production capacity (loss of 1.9 million tons). Our results suggest that the environmental and land-use tradeoffs associated with oil-palm expansion can be largely avoided through the implementation of a properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy. PMID:20511535

  11. Life cycle impact assessment of terrestrial acidification: modeling spatially explicit soil sensitivity at the global scale.

    PubMed

    Roy, Pierre-Olivier; Deschênes, Louise; Margni, Manuele

    2012-08-01

    This paper presents a novel life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) approach to derive spatially explicit soil sensitivity indicators for terrestrial acidification. This global approach is compatible with a subsequent damage assessment, making it possible to consistently link the developed midpoint indicators with a later endpoint assessment along the cause-effect chain-a prerequisite in LCIA. Four different soil chemical indicators were preselected to evaluate sensitivity factors (SFs) for regional receiving environments at the global scale, namely the base cations to aluminum ratio, aluminum to calcium ratio, pH, and aluminum concentration. These chemical indicators were assessed using the PROFILE geochemical steady-state soil model and a global data set of regional soil parameters developed specifically for this study. Results showed that the most sensitive regions (i.e., where SF is maximized) are in Canada, northern Europe, the Amazon, central Africa, and East and Southeast Asia. However, the approach is not bereft of uncertainty. Indeed, a Monte Carlo analysis showed that input parameter variability may induce SF variations of up to over 6 orders of magnitude for certain chemical indicators. These findings improve current practices and enable the development of regional characterization models to assess regional life cycle inventories in a global economy.

  12. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Rachel; Acevedo, William; Soulard, Christopher E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2015-01-01

    Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

  13. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A key aspect of disaster prevention is flood discharge forecasting which is used for early warning and therefore as a decision support for intervention forces. Hereby, the phase between the issued forecast and the time when the expected flood occurs is crucial for an optimal planning of the intervention. Typically, river discharge forecasts cover the regional level only, i.e. larger catchments. However, it is important to note that these forecasts are not useable directly for specific target groups on local level because these forecasts say nothing about the consequences of the predicted flood in terms of affected areas, number of exposed residents and houses. For this, on one hand simulations of the flooding processes and on the other hand data of vulnerable objects are needed. Furthermore, flood modelling in a high spatial and temporal resolution is required for robust flood loss estimation. This is a resource-intensive task from a computing time point of view. Therefore, in real-time applications flood modelling in 2D is not suited. Thus, forecasting flood losses in the short-term (6h-24h in advance) requires a different approach. Here, we propose a method to downscale the river discharge forecast to a spatially-explicit flood loss forecast. The principal procedure is to generate as many flood scenarios as needed in advance to represent the flooded areas for all possible flood hydrographs, e.g. very high peak discharges of short duration vs. high peak discharges with high volumes. For this, synthetic flood hydrographs were derived from the hydrologic time series. Then, the flooded areas of each scenario were modelled with a 2D flood simulation model. All scenarios were intersected with the dataset of vulnerable objects, in our case residential, agricultural and industrial buildings with information about the number of residents, the object-specific vulnerability, and the monetary value of the objects. This dataset was prepared by a data-mining approach. For each

  14. Spatially explicit modeling of conflict zones between wildlife and snow sports: prioritizing areas for winter refuges.

    PubMed

    Braunisch, Veronika; Patthey, Patrick; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2011-04-01

    Outdoor winter recreation exerts an increasing pressure upon mountain ecosystems, with unpredictable, free-ranging activities (e.g., ski mountaineering, snowboarding, and snowshoeing) representing a major source of stress for wildlife. Mitigating anthropogenic disturbance requires the spatially explicit prediction of the interference between the activities of humans and wildlife. We applied spatial modeling to localize conflict zones between wintering Black Grouse (Tetrao tetrix), a declining species of Alpine timberline ecosystems, and two free-ranging winter sports (off-piste skiing [including snow-boarding] and snowshoeing). Track data (snow-sports and birds' traces) obtained from aerial photographs taken over a 585-km transect running along the timberline, implemented within a maximum entropy model, were used to predict the occurrence of snow sports and Black Grouse as a function of landscape characteristics. By modeling Black Grouse presence in the theoretical absence of free-ranging activities and ski infrastructure, we first estimated the amount of habitat reduction caused by these two factors. The models were then extrapolated to the altitudinal range occupied by Black Grouse, while the spatial extent and intensity of potential conflict were assessed by calculating the probability of human-wildlife co-occurrence. The two snow-sports showed different distribution patterns. Skiers' occurrence was mainly determined by ski-lift presence and a smooth terrain, while snowshoers' occurrence was linked to hiking or skiing routes and moderate slopes. Wintering Black Grouse avoided ski lifts and areas frequented by free-ranging snow sports. According to the models, Black Grouse have faced a substantial reduction of suitable wintering habitat along the timberline transect: 12% due to ski infrastructure and another 16% when adding free-ranging activities. Extrapolating the models over the whole study area results in an overall habitat loss due to ski infrastructure of

  15. A risk assessment example for soil invertebrates using spatially explicit agent-based models.

    PubMed

    Reed, Melissa; Alvarez, Tania; Chelinho, Sónia; Forbes, Valery; Johnston, Alice; Meli, Mattia; Voss, Frank; Pastorok, Rob

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment methods for measuring the toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) on soil invertebrates use standardized laboratory conditions to determine acute effects on mortality and sublethal effects on reproduction. If an unacceptable risk is identified at the lower tier, population-level effects are assessed using semifield and field trials at a higher tier because modeling methods for extrapolating available lower-tier information to population effects have not yet been implemented. Field trials are expensive, time consuming, and cannot be applied to variable landscape scenarios. Mechanistic modeling of the toxicological effects of PPPs on individuals and their responses combined with simulation of population-level response shows great potential in fulfilling such a need, aiding ecologically informed extrapolation. Here, we introduce and demonstrate the potential of 2 population models for ubiquitous soil invertebrates (collembolans and earthworms) as refinement options in current risk assessment. Both are spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs), incorporating individual and landscape variability. The models were used to provide refined risk assessments for different application scenarios of a hypothetical pesticide applied to potato crops (full-field spray onto the soil surface [termed "overall"], in-furrow, and soil-incorporated pesticide applications). In the refined risk assessment, the population models suggest that soil invertebrate populations would likely recover within 1 year after pesticide application, regardless of application method. The population modeling for both soil organisms also illustrated that a lower predicted average environmental concentration in soil (PECsoil) could potentially lead to greater effects at the population level, depending on the spatial heterogeneity of the pesticide and the behavior of the soil organisms. Population-level effects of spatial-temporal variations in exposure were elucidated in the

  16. Spatially Explicit Simulation of Mesotopographic Controls on Peatland Hydrology and Carbon Fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonnentag, O.; Chen, J. M.; Roulet, N. T.

    2006-12-01

    A number of field carbon flux measurements, paleoecological records, and model simulations have acknowledged the importance of northern peatlands in terrestrial carbon cycling and methane emissions. An important parameter in peatlands that influences both net primary productivity, the net gain of carbon through photosynthesis, and decomposition under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, is the position of the water table. Biological and physical processes involved in peatland carbon dynamics and their hydrological controls operate at different spatial scales. The highly variable hydraulic characteristics of the peat profile and the overall shape of the peat body as defined by its surface topography at the mesoscale (104 m2) are of major importance for peatland water table dynamics. Common types of peatlands include bogs with a slightly domed centre. As a result of the convex profile, their water supply is restricted to atmospheric inputs, and water is mainly shed by shallow subsurface flow. From a modelling perspective the influence of mesotopographic controls on peatland hydrology and thus carbon balance requires that process-oriented models that examine the links between peatland hydrology, ecosystem functioning, and climate must incorporate some form of lateral subsurface flow consideration. Most hydrological and ecological modelling studies in complex terrain explicitly account for the topographic controls on lateral subsurface flow through digital elevation models. However, modelling studies in peatlands often employ simple empirical parameterizations of lateral subsurface flow, neglecting the influence of peatlands low relief mesoscale topography. Our objective is to explicitly simulate the mesotopographic controls on peatland hydrology and carbon fluxes using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) adapted to northern peatlands. BEPS is a process-oriented ecosystem model in a remote sensing framework that takes into account peatlands multi

  17. Spatially explicit exposure assessment for small streams in catchments of the orchard growing region `Lake Constance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golla, B.; Bach, M.; Krumpe, J.

    2009-04-01

    1. Introduction Small streams differ greatly from the standardised water body used in the context of aquatic risk assessment for the regulation of plant protection products in Germany. The standard water body is static, with a depth of 0.3 m and a width of 1.0 m. No dilution or water replacement takes place. Spray drift happens always in direction to the water body. There is no variability in drift deposition rate (90th percentile spray drift deposition values [2]). There is no spray drift filtering by vegetation. The application takes place directly adjacent to the water body. In order to establish a more realistic risk assessment procedure the Federal Office for Consumer Protection and Food Safety (BVL) and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) aggreed to replace deterministic assumptions with data distributions and spatially explicit data and introduce probabilistic methods [3, 4, 5]. To consider the spatial and temporal variability in the exposure situations of small streams the hydraulic and morphological characteristics of catchments need to be described as well as the spatial distribution of fields treated with pesticides. As small streams are the dominant type of water body in most German orchard regions, we use the growing region Lake Constance as pilot region. 2. Materials and methods During field surveys we derive basic morphological parameters for small streams in the Lake Constance region. The mean water width/depth ratio is 13 with a mean depth of 0.12 m. The average residence time is 5.6 s/m (n=87) [1]. Orchards are mostly located in the upper parts of the catchments. Based on an authoritative dataset on rivers and streams of Germany (ATKIS DLM25) we constructed a directed network topology for the Lake Constance region. The gradient of the riverbed is calculated for river stretches of > 500 m length. The network for the pilot region consists of 2000 km rivers and streams. 500 km stream length are located within a distance of 150 m to orchards. Within

  18. A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2011-12-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

  19. Spatially Explicit Modelling of the Belgian Major Endurance Event ‘The 100 km Dodentocht’

    PubMed Central

    Van Nieuland, Steffie; Baetens, Jan M.; De Baets, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    ‘The 100 km Dodentocht’, which takes place annually and has its start in Bornem, Belgium, is a long distance march where participants have to cover a 100 km trail in at most 24 hours. The approximately 11 000 marchers per edition are tracked by making use of passive radio-frequency-identification (RFID). These tracking data were analyzed to build a spatially explicit marching model that gives insights into the dynamics of the event and allows to evaluate the effect of changes in the starting procedure of the event. For building the model, the empirical distribution functions (edf) of the marching speeds at every section of the trail in between two consecutive checkpoints and of the checkpoints where marchers retire, are determined, taking into account age, gender, and marching speeds at previous sections. These distribution functions are then used to sample the consecutive speeds and retirement, and as such to simulate the times when individual marchers pass by the consecutive checkpoints. We concluded that the data-driven model simulates the event reliably. Furthermore, we tested three scenarios to reduce the crowdiness along the first part of the trail and in this way were able to conclude that either the start should be moved to a location outside the town center where the streets are at least 25% wider, or that the marchers should start in two groups at two different locations, and that these groups should ideally merge at about 20 km after the start. The crowdiness at the start might also be reduced by installing a bottleneck at the start in order to limit the number of marchers that can pass per unit of time. Consequently, the operating hours of the consecutive checkpoints would be longer. The developed framework can likewise be used to analyze and improve the operation of other endurance events if sufficient tracking data are available. PMID:27764202

  1. A spatially explicit decision support model for restoration of forest bird habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, D.J.; Uihlein, W.B.; Elliott, A.B.

    2006-01-01

    The historical area of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley has been reduced by >75%. Agricultural production was the primary motivator for deforestation; hence, clearing deliberately targeted higher and drier sites. Remaining forests are highly fragmented and hydrologically altered, with larger forest fragments subject to greater inundation, which has negatively affected many forest bird populations. We developed a spatially explicit decision support model, based on a Partners in Flight plan for forest bird conservation, that prioritizes forest restoration to reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of forest core (interior forest >1 km from 'hostile' edge). Our primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches that harbor >2000 ha of forest core, but we also sought to increase the number and area of forest cores >5000 ha. Concurrently, we targeted restoration within local (320 km2) landscapes to achieve >60% forest cover. Finally, we emphasized restoration of higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests in areas where restoration would not increase forest fragmentation. Reforestation of 10% of restorable land in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (approximately 880,000 ha) targeted at priorities established by this decision support model resulted in approximately 824,000 ha of new forest core. This is more than 32 times the amount of core forest added through reforestation of randomly located fields (approximately 25,000 ha). The total area of forest core (1.6 million ha) that resulted from targeted restoration exceeded habitat objectives identified in the Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan and approached the area of forest core present in the 1950s.

  2. Human Mobility Patterns and Cholera Epidemics: a Spatially Explicit Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mari, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2010-12-01

    Cholera is an acute enteric disease caused by the ingestion of water or food contaminated by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Although most infected individuals do not develop severe symptoms, their stool may contain huge quantities of V.~cholerae cells. Therefore, while traveling or commuting, asymptomatic carriers can be responsible for the long-range dissemination of the disease. As a consequence, human mobility is an alternative and efficient driver for the spread of cholera, whose primary propagation pathway is hydrological transport through river networks. We present a multi-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of V.~cholerae due to human movement. In particular, building on top of state-of-the-art spatially explicit models for cholera spread through surface waters, we describe human movement and its effects on the propagation of the disease by means of a gravity-model approach borrowed from transportation theory. Gravity-like contact processes have been widely used in epidemiology, because they can satisfactorily depict human movement when data on actual mobility patterns are not available. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during years 2000--2001. We show that human mobility does actually play an important role in the formation of the spatiotemporal patterns of cholera epidemics. In particular, long-range human movement may determine inter-catchment dissemination of V.~cholerae cells, thus in turn explaining the emergence of epidemic patterns that cannot be produced by hydrological transport alone. We also show that particular attention has to be devoted to study how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect cholera transmission.

  3. A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

    PubMed

    Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

    2016-08-01

    The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought. PMID:26632250

  4. EnviroAtlas: A Spatially Explicit Tool Combining Climate Change Scenarios with Ecosystem Services Indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neale, A. C.; Pickard, B. R.; Megan, M.; Baynes, J.

    2014-12-01

    While discussions of global climate change tend to center on greenhouse gases and sea levelrise, other factors, such as technological developments, land and energy use, economics, and populationgrowth all play a critical role in understanding climate change. There is increasing urgency for methodsto forecast how different sectors, in particular ecosystems and the goods and services they provide, maybe altered as a result of climate change. However, due to their complexity, it is difficult to assess theseecosystem services at a single point in space or time, as they may be influenced by surrounding anddistant patterns of land use and biophysical attributes in addition to climate change. In order to makemeaningful conservation and adaptation choices, specific ecosystem components must be viewed inrelation to future climate information. The US Environmental Protection Agency and its partners, havedeveloped EnviroAtlas, a web-based geospatial tool that allows users to interact with climate changemodeling information while simultaneously providing a range of information and data on differentecosystem goods and services. This can be a useful platform for inquiry about the supply, demand, orbenefits provided by a specific ecosystem service, and to understand the potential impacts to thatecosystem service due to our changing climate. Housing a variety of data in one publicly available toolencourages users to think in new, trans-disciplinary ways that focus on the relationships betweenecosystem services and climate change impacts. By combining many fields of research through this easyto-use interface, the result is a novel tool that is spatially and temporally explicit and enables betterdecision making across multiple sectors. This talk will illustrate how the information presented inEnviroAtlas can be used in research.

  5. A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

    PubMed

    Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

    2016-08-01

    The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought.

  6. Programmable DNA scaffolds for spatially-ordered protein assembly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandrasekaran, Arun Richard

    2016-02-01

    Ever since the notion of using DNA as a material was realized, it has been employed in the construction of complex structures that facilitate the assembly of nanoparticles or macromolecules with nanometer-scale precision. Specifically, tiles fashioned from DNA strands and DNA origami sheets have been shown to be suitable as scaffolds for immobilizing proteins with excellent control over their spatial positioning. Supramolecular assembly of proteins into periodic arrays in one or more dimensions is one of the most challenging aspects in the design of scaffolds for biomolecular investigations and macromolecular crystallization. This review provides a brief overview of how various biomolecular interactions with high degree of specificity such as streptavidin-biotin, antigen-antibody, and aptamer-protein interactions have been used to fabricate linear and multidimensional assemblies of structurally intact and functional proteins. The use of DNA-binding proteins as adaptors, polyamide recognition on DNA scaffolds and oligonucleotide linkers for protein assembly are also discussed.Ever since the notion of using DNA as a material was realized, it has been employed in the construction of complex structures that facilitate the assembly of nanoparticles or macromolecules with nanometer-scale precision. Specifically, tiles fashioned from DNA strands and DNA origami sheets have been shown to be suitable as scaffolds for immobilizing proteins with excellent control over their spatial positioning. Supramolecular assembly of proteins into periodic arrays in one or more dimensions is one of the most challenging aspects in the design of scaffolds for biomolecular investigations and macromolecular crystallization. This review provides a brief overview of how various biomolecular interactions with high degree of specificity such as streptavidin-biotin, antigen-antibody, and aptamer-protein interactions have been used to fabricate linear and multidimensional assemblies of structurally

  7. Spatially Explicit Estimates of Suspended Sediment and Bedload Transport Rates for Western Oregon and Northwestern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Connor, J. E.; Wise, D. R.; Mangano, J.; Jones, K.

    2015-12-01

    Empirical analyses of suspended sediment and bedload transport gives estimates of sediment flux for western Oregon and northwestern California. The estimates of both bedload and suspended load are from regression models relating measured annual sediment yield to geologic, physiographic, and climatic properties of contributing basins. The best models include generalized geology and either slope or precipitation. The best-fit suspended-sediment model is based on basin geology, precipitation, and area of recent wildfire. It explains 65% of the variance for 68 suspended sediment measurement sites within the model area. Predicted suspended sediment yields range from no yield from the High Cascades geologic province to 200 tonnes/ km2-yr in the northern Oregon Coast Range and 1000 tonnes/km2-yr in recently burned areas of the northern Klamath terrain. Bed-material yield is similarly estimated from a regression model based on 22 sites of measured bed-material transport, mostly from reservoir accumulation analyses but also from several bedload measurement programs. The resulting best-fit regression is based on basin slope and the presence/absence of the Klamath geologic terrane. For the Klamath terrane, bed-material yield is twice that of the other geologic provinces. This model explains more than 80% of the variance of the better-quality measurements. Predicted bed-material yields range up to 350 tonnes/ km2-yr in steep areas of the Klamath terrane. Applying these regressions to small individual watersheds (mean size; 66 km2 for bed-material; 3 km2 for suspended sediment) and cumulating totals down the hydrologic network (but also decreasing the bed-material flux by experimentally determined attrition rates) gives spatially explicit estimates of both bed-material and suspended sediment flux. This enables assessment of several management issues, including the effects of dams on bedload transport, instream gravel mining, habitat formation processes, and water-quality. The

  8. Functional assembly of protein fragments induced by spatial confinement.

    PubMed

    Yu, Yongsheng; Wang, Jianpeng; Liu, Jiahui; Ling, Daishun; Xia, Jiang

    2015-01-01

    Natural proteins are often confined within their local microenvironments, such as three-dimensional confinement in organelles or two-dimensional confinement in lipid rafts on cytoplasmic membrane. Spatial confinement restricts proteins' entropic freedom, forces their lateral interaction, and induces new properties that the same proteins lack at the soluble state. So far, the phenomenon of environment-induced protein functional alteration still lacks a full illustration. We demonstrate here that engineered protein fragments, although being non-functional in solution, can be re-assembled within the nanometer space to give the full activity of the whole protein. Specific interaction between hexahistidine-tag (His-tag) and NiO surface immobilizes protein fragments on NiO nanoparticles to form a self-assembled protein "corona" on the particles inside the nanopores of mesoporous silica. Site-specific assembly forces a shoulder-by-shoulder orientation and promotes fragment-fragment interaction; this interaction together with spatial confinement of the mesopores results in functional re-assembly of the protein half fragments. To our surprise, a single half fragment of luciferase (non-catalytic in solution) exhibited luciferase activity when immobilized on NiO in the mesopores, in the absence of the complimentary half. This shows for the first time that spatial confinement can induce the folding of a half fragment, reconstitute the enzyme active site, and re-gain the catalytic capability of the whole protein. Our work thereby highlights the under-documented notion that aside from the chemical composition such as primary sequence, physical environment of a protein also determines its function. PMID:25875003

  9. SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT BAT IMPACT SCREENING TOOL FOR WIND TURBINE SITING

    SciTech Connect

    Versar, Inc.; Exponent, Inc.

    2013-10-28

    As the U.S. seeks to increase energy production from renewable energy sources, development of wind power resources continues to grow. One of the most important ecological issues restricting wind energy development, especially the siting of wind turbines, is the potential adverse effect on bats. High levels of bat fatality have been recorded at a number of wind energy facilities, especially in the eastern United States. The U.S. Department of Energy contracted with Versar, Inc., and Exponent to develop a spatially-explicit site screening tool to evaluate the mortality of bats resulting from interactions (collisions or barotrauma) with wind turbines. The resulting Bat Vulnerability Assessment Tool (BVAT) presented in this report integrates spatial information about turbine locations, bat habitat features, and bat behavior as it relates to possible interactions with turbines. A model demonstration was conducted that focuses on two bat species, the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) and the Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis). The eastern red bat is a relatively common tree-roosting species that ranges broadly during migration in the Eastern U.S., whereas the Indiana bat is regional species that migrates between a summer range and cave hibernacula. Moreover, Indiana bats are listed as endangered, and so the impacts to this species are of particular interest. The model demonstration used conditions at the Mountaineer Wind Energy Center (MWEC), which consists of 44 wind turbines arranged in a linear array near Thomas, West Virginia (Tucker County), to illustrate model functions and not to represent actual or potential impacts of the facility. The turbines at MWEC are erected on the ridge of Backbone Mountain with a nacelle height of 70 meters and a collision area of 72 meters (blade height) or 4,071 meters square. The habitat surrounding the turbines is an Appalachian mixed mesophytic forest. Model sensitivity runs showed that bat mortality in the model was most sensitive to

  10. SEHR-ECHO v1.0: a Spatially-Explicit Hydrologic Response model for ecohydrologic applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefli, Bettina; Nicótina, Ludovico; Da Ronco, Pierfrancesco; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    We present here the SEHR-ECHO model, which stands for Spatially Explicit Hydrologic Response (SEHR) model developed at the Laboratory of Ecohydrology (ECHO) of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne. The model is being developed for the spatially-explicit simulation of streamflow and transport processes at the catchment scale. The key concept of the model is the formulation of water transport by geomorphologic travel time distributions: the mobilization of water (and possibly dissolved solutes) is simulated at the subcatchment scale and the resulting responses are convolved with the travel paths distribution within the river network to obtain the hydrologic response at the catchment outlet. The Matlab source code of the current version for alpine streamflow simulation is already freely available. A truly free open source version using Python will become available in the future.

  11. Plant community assembly at small scales: Spatial vs. environmental factors in a European grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horn, Sebastian; Hempel, Stefan; Ristow, Michael; Rillig, Matthias C.; Kowarik, Ingo; Caruso, Tancredi

    2015-02-01

    Dispersal limitation and environmental conditions are crucial drivers of plant species distribution and establishment. As these factors operate at different spatial scales, we asked: Do the environmental factors known to determine community assembly at broad scales operate at fine scales (few meters)? How much do these factors account for community variation at fine scales? In which way do biotic and abiotic interactions drive changes in species composition? We surveyed the plant community within a dry grassland along a very steep gradient of soil characteristics like pH and nutrients. We used a spatially explicit sampling design, based on three replicated macroplots of 15 × 15, 12 × 12 and 12 × 12 m in extent. Soil samples were taken to quantify several soil properties (carbon, nitrogen, plant available phosphorus, pH, water content and dehydrogenase activity as a proxy for overall microbial activity). We performed variance partitioning to assess the effect of these variables on plant composition and statistically controlled for spatial autocorrelation via eigenvector mapping. We also applied null model analysis to test for non-random patterns in species co-occurrence using randomization schemes that account for patterns expected under species interactions. At a fine spatial scale, environmental factors explained 18% of variation when controlling for spatial autocorrelation in the distribution of plant species, whereas purely spatial processes accounted for 14% variation. Null model analysis showed that species spatially segregated in a non-random way and these spatial patterns could be due to a combination of environmental filtering and biotic interactions. Our grassland study suggests that environmental factors found to be directly relevant in broad scale studies are present also at small scales, but are supplemented by spatial processes and more direct interactions like competition.

  12. A Spatially Explicit Dual-Isotope Approach to Map Regions of Plant-Plant Interaction after Exotic Plant Invasion

    PubMed Central

    Hellmann, Christine; Werner, Christiane; Oldeland, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Understanding interactions between native and invasive plant species in field settings and quantifying the impact of invaders in heterogeneous native ecosystems requires resolving the spatial scale on which these processes take place. Therefore, functional tracers are needed that enable resolving the alterations induced by exotic plant invasion in contrast to natural variation in a spatially explicit way. 15N isoscapes, i.e., spatially referenced representations of stable nitrogen isotopic signatures, have recently provided such a tracer. However, different processes, e.g. water, nitrogen or carbon cycles, may be affected at different spatial scales. Thus multi-isotope studies, by using different functional tracers, can potentially return a more integrated picture of invader impact. This is particularly true when isoscapes are submitted to statistical methods suitable to find homogeneous subgroups in multivariate data such as cluster analysis. Here, we used model-based clustering of spatially explicit foliar δ15N and δ13C isoscapes together with N concentration of a native indicator species, Corema album, to map regions of influence in a Portuguese dune ecosystem invaded by the N2-fixing Acacia longifolia. Cluster analysis identified regions with pronounced alterations in N budget and water use efficiency in the native species, with a more than twofold increase in foliar N, and δ13C and δ15N enrichment of up to 2‰ and 8‰ closer to the invader, respectively. Furthermore, clusters of multiple functional tracers indicated a spatial shift from facilitation through N addition in the proximity of the invader to competition for resources other than N in close contact. Finding homogeneous subgroups in multi-isotope data by means of model-based cluster analysis provided an effective tool for detecting spatial structure in processes affecting plant physiology and performance. The proposed method can give an objective measure of the spatial extent of influence of

  13. A Spatially Explicit Dual-Isotope Approach to Map Regions of Plant-Plant Interaction after Exotic Plant Invasion.

    PubMed

    Hellmann, Christine; Werner, Christiane; Oldeland, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Understanding interactions between native and invasive plant species in field settings and quantifying the impact of invaders in heterogeneous native ecosystems requires resolving the spatial scale on which these processes take place. Therefore, functional tracers are needed that enable resolving the alterations induced by exotic plant invasion in contrast to natural variation in a spatially explicit way. 15N isoscapes, i.e., spatially referenced representations of stable nitrogen isotopic signatures, have recently provided such a tracer. However, different processes, e.g. water, nitrogen or carbon cycles, may be affected at different spatial scales. Thus multi-isotope studies, by using different functional tracers, can potentially return a more integrated picture of invader impact. This is particularly true when isoscapes are submitted to statistical methods suitable to find homogeneous subgroups in multivariate data such as cluster analysis. Here, we used model-based clustering of spatially explicit foliar δ15N and δ13C isoscapes together with N concentration of a native indicator species, Corema album, to map regions of influence in a Portuguese dune ecosystem invaded by the N2-fixing Acacia longifolia. Cluster analysis identified regions with pronounced alterations in N budget and water use efficiency in the native species, with a more than twofold increase in foliar N, and δ13C and δ15N enrichment of up to 2‰ and 8‰ closer to the invader, respectively. Furthermore, clusters of multiple functional tracers indicated a spatial shift from facilitation through N addition in the proximity of the invader to competition for resources other than N in close contact. Finding homogeneous subgroups in multi-isotope data by means of model-based cluster analysis provided an effective tool for detecting spatial structure in processes affecting plant physiology and performance. The proposed method can give an objective measure of the spatial extent of influence of

  14. CDFISH: an individual-based, spatially-explicit, landscape genetics simulator for aquatic species in complex riverscapes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erin L. Landguth,; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Luikart, Gordon

    2012-01-01

    We introduce Cost Distance FISHeries (CDFISH), a simulator of population genetics and connectivity in complex riverscapes for a wide range of environmental scenarios of aquatic organisms. The spatially-explicit program implements individual-based genetic modeling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele mutation on a riverscape with resistance to movement. The program simulates individuals in subpopulations through time employing user-defined functions of individual migration, reproduction, mortality, and dispersal through straying on a continuous resistance surface.

  15. Mapping of the CO2 and anthropogenic heat emission under spatially explicit urban land use scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamichi, K.; Yamagata, Y.; Seya, H.

    2010-12-01

    possible range of future land use change. The first one is a compact city scenario and the second one is a dispersion scenario. In the compact city scenario, we assumed that commuting to work by cars would be prohibited. In the dispersion scenario, we assumed that all workers would work in their own houses and the time of commuting to work would be zero. The spatially explicit emissions are mapped by using Geographical Information System (GIS). As for the CO2 emission, this study focuses on the analysis of the tendency from the viewpoint of both direct and indirect emission. As a result, people would live in suburbs in the second scenario, and the emissions would increase. It is concluded that the results shows the importance of low-carbon city as compact city. Moreover, the anthropogenic heat emission estimated in this study can used as the input parameters for the climate models. The developed system can be used for analyzing the implications of urban planning and carbon management scenarios.

  16. Spatially Explicit Large Area Biomass Estimation: Three Approaches Using Forest Inventory and Remotely Sensed Imagery in a GIS

    PubMed Central

    Wulder, Michael A.; White, Joanne C.; Fournier, Richard A.; Luther, Joan E.; Magnussen, Steen

    2008-01-01

    Forest inventory data often provide the required base data to enable the large area mapping of biomass over a range of scales. However, spatially explicit estimates of above-ground biomass (AGB) over large areas may be limited by the spatial extent of the forest inventory relative to the area of interest (i.e., inventories not spatially exhaustive), or by the omission of inventory attributes required for biomass estimation. These spatial and attributional gaps in the forest inventory may result in an underestimation of large area AGB. The continuous nature and synoptic coverage of remotely sensed data have led to their increased application for AGB estimation over large areas, although the use of these data remains challenging in complex forest environments. In this paper, we present an approach to generating spatially explicit estimates of large area AGB by integrating AGB estimates from multiple data sources; 1. using a lookup table of conversion factors applied to a non-spatially exhaustive forest inventory dataset (R2 = 0.64; RMSE = 16.95 t/ha), 2. applying a lookup table to unique combinations of land cover and vegetation density outputs derived from remotely sensed data (R2 = 0.52; RMSE = 19.97 t/ha), and 3. hybrid mapping by augmenting forest inventory AGB estimates with remotely sensed AGB estimates where there are spatial or attributional gaps in the forest inventory data. Over our 714,852 ha study area in central Saskatchewan, Canada, the AGB estimate generated from the forest inventory was approximately 40 Mega tonnes (Mt); however, the inventory estimate represents only 51% of the total study area. The AGB estimate generated from the remotely sensed outputs that overlap those made from the forest inventory based approach differ by only 2 %; however in total, the remotely sensed estimate is 30 % greater (58 Mt) than the estimate generated from the forest inventory when the entire study area is accounted for. Finally, using the hybrid approach, whereby

  17. Dynamic multiprotein assemblies shape the spatial structure of cell signaling.

    PubMed

    Nussinov, Ruth; Jang, Hyunbum

    2014-01-01

    Cell signaling underlies critical cellular decisions. Coordination, efficiency as well as fail-safe mechanisms are key elements. How the cell ensures that these hallmarks are at play are important questions. Cell signaling is often viewed as taking place through discrete and cross-talking pathways; oftentimes these are modularized to emphasize distinct functions. While simple, convenient and clear, such models largely neglect the spatial structure of cell signaling; they also convey inter-modular (or inter-protein) spatial separation that may not exist. Here our thesis is that cell signaling is shaped by a network of multiprotein assemblies. While pre-organized, the assemblies and network are loose and dynamic. They contain transiently-associated multiprotein complexes which are often mediated by scaffolding proteins. They are also typically anchored in the membrane, and their continuum may span the cell. IQGAP1 scaffolding protein which binds proteins including Raf, calmodulin, Mek, Erk, actin, and tens more, with actin shaping B-cell (and likely other) membrane-anchored nanoclusters and allosterically polymerizing in dynamic cytoskeleton formation, and Raf anchoring in the membrane along with Ras, provides a striking example. The multivalent network of dynamic proteins and lipids, with specific interactions forming and breaking, can be viewed as endowing gel-like properties. Collectively, this reasons that efficient, productive and reliable cell signaling takes place primarily through transient, preorganized and cooperative protein-protein interactions spanning the cell rather than stochastic, diffusion-controlled processes.

  18. Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

    PubMed

    He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

    2011-04-01

    Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

  19. A Spatially Explicit and Seasonally Varying Cholera Prevalence Model With Distributed Macro-Scale Environmental and Hydroclimatic Forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Eltahir, E. A.; Islam, S.

    2011-12-01

    Despite major advances in the ecological and microbiological understanding of the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, the role of underlying large-scale processes in the progression of the cholera disease in space and time is not well understood. Here, we present a spatially explicit and seasonally varying coupled hydroclimatology-epidemiology model for understanding regional scale cholera prevalence in response to large scale hydroclimatic and environmental forcings. Our results show that environmental cholera transmission can be modulated by two spatially and seasonally distinct mechanisms - influenced by dry and wet season hydrologic determinants. The model is applied to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin areas in Bangladesh to simulate spatially explicit cholera prevalence rates, and validated with long-term cholera data from Dhaka and shorter-term records from regional surveillance locations. The model reproduces the variability of cholera prevalence at monthly, seasonal, and interannual timescales and highlights the role of asymmetric large scale hydroclimatic processes as the dominant controls. Our findings have important implications for formulating effective cholera intervention strategies, and for understanding the impacts of changing climate patterns on seasonal cholera transmission.

  20. USE OF HABITAT-CONTAMINATION SPATIAL CORRELATION TO DETERMINE WHEN TO PERFORM A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Anthropogenic contamination is typically distributed heterogeneously through space. This spatial structure can have different effects on the cumulative doses of individuals exposed to contamination within the environment. These effects are accentuated when individuals pursue di...

  1. Use of spatially explicit physicochemical data to measure downstream impacts of headwater stream disturbance

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regulatory agencies need methods to quantify the influence of headwater streams on downstream water quality as a result of litigation surrounding jurisdictional criteria and the influence of mountaintop removal coal mining activities. We collected comprehensive, spatially-referen...

  2. REVIEW OF SIMULATION METHODS FOR SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

  3. SPATIAL EXPLICIT POPULATION MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT: COMMON LOONS AND MERCURY AS A CASE STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

  4. Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Friesz, Aaron M.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Wilson, Tamara; Knuppe, Michelle; Van Hofwegen, Travis

    2014-01-01

    Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 5 Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit datasets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of 10 anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting have relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less 15 forest cutting. Stand ages differ substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, 20 biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

  5. Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States.

    PubMed

    Sohl, Terry L; Sayler, Kristi L; Bouchard, Michelle A; Reker, Ryan R; Friesz, Aaron M; Bennett, Stacie L; Sleeter, Benjamin M; Sleeter, Rachel R; Wilson, Tamara; Soulard, Chris; Knuppe, Michelle; Van Hofwegen, Travis

    2014-07-01

    Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the forecasting scenarios of land-use change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit data sets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both the proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting had relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less forest cutting. Stand ages differed substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand-age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

  6. The Value of Simple Models: Performance of a Spatially-explicit Seasonal Model for Valuing Water Provisioning (InVEST)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, P.; Guswa, A. J.; Wemple, B. C.; Mohammed, I. N.; Sharp, R.

    2015-12-01

    Valuing hydrologic ecosystem services (ES) requires a truly integrated approach, linking knowledge of hydrologic processes to that of the socio-economic context of a region. Although both the hydrological and socio-economic dimensions are complex, practitioners need simple and credible models to address pressing questions brought by global change. We developed such a model for the supply, service, and value of water provisioning; available to the ES community through the open-source InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosytem Services and Trade-offs) software. The model is characterized by i) low data requirements, with the aim of being applied in data-scarce environments; ii) spatially-explicit outputs, to easily address spatial planning questions; iii) a seasonal time-step, representing a compromise between data knowledge and ability to address season-dependent questions (water supply for irrigation, hydropower production); iv) explicit representation of beneficiaries, to facilitate valuation of the provisioning service for different groups; v) flexible valuation framework, to address a variety of ES questions. The model theory is based on the recent advances in hydrology, using the "limits" concept for water balance modeling and spatial indices for subsurface and surface runoff. We tested the model performance in the Mad River catchment, Vermont, USA, comparing its results with the data-intensive RHESSys model for two typical ES questions: the identification of hotspots of service and valuation of the provisioning service for hydropower production. Uncertainty analyses, including sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo analyses, were performed to quantify uncertainty in both hydrological outputs and service provisioning, and improve guidance for users. We present these results through a range of spatial and non-spatial outputs, emphasizing the importance of results interpretation and visualization for ES assessments.

  7. Deconstructing Building Blocks: Preschoolers' Spatial Assembly Performance Relates to Early Mathematical Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Verdine, Brian N.; Golinkoff, Roberta M.; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathryn; Newcombe, Nora S.; Filipowicz, Andrew T.; Chang, Alicia

    2014-01-01

    This study focuses on three main goals: First, 3-year-olds' spatial assembly skills are probed using interlocking block constructions (N = 102). A detailed scoring scheme provides insight into early spatial processing and offers information beyond a basic accuracy score. Second, the relation of spatial assembly to early mathematical skills…

  8. USING THE ECLPSS SOFTWARE ENVIRONMENT TO BUILD A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT COMPONENT-BASED MODEL OF OZONE EFFECTS ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS. (R827958)

    EPA Science Inventory

    We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ...

  9. A Watershed-based spatially-explicit demonstration of an Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework for Ecosystem Services in the Coal River Basin (WV, USA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    We demonstrate a spatially-explicit regional assessment of current condition of aquatic ecoservices in the Coal River Basin (CRB), with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The integrated modeling framework (IMF) forecasts water quality and quant...

  10. Spatially explicit rangeland erosion monitoring using high-resolution digital aerial imagery

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Nearly all of the ecosystem services supported by rangelands, including production of livestock forage, carbon sequestration, and provisioning of clean water, are negatively impacted by soil erosion. Accordingly, monitoring the severity, spatial extent, and rate of soil erosion is essential for long...

  11. Spatially explicit West Nile virus risk modeling in Santa Clara County, California

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A previously created Geographic Information Systems model designed to identify regions of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk is tested and calibrated in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005 provide the spatial and temporal ground truth. Model param...

  12. Spatially Explicit West Nile Virus Risk Modeling in Santa Clara County, CA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A geographic information systems model designed to identify regions of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk was tested and calibrated with data collected in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005, provided spatial and temporal ground truth. When the mo...

  13. Evaluation of and insights from ALFISH: a spatially explicit landscape-level simulation of fish populations in the Everglades

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gaff, Holly; Chick, John; Trexler, Joel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Gross, Louis; Salinas, Rene

    2004-01-01

    We present an evaluation of a spatially explicit, age-structured model created to assess fish density dynamics in the Florida Everglades area. This model, ALFISH, has been used to compare alternative management scenarios for the Florida Everglades region. This area is characterized by periodic dry downs and refloodings. ALFISH uses spatially explicit water depth data to predict patterns of fish density. Here we present a method for calibration of ALFISH, based on information concerning fish movement, pond locations and other field data. With the current information, the greatest coefficient of determination achieved from regressions of ALFISH output to field data is 0.35 for fish density and 0.88 for water depth. The poor predictability of fish density mirrors the empirical findings that hydrology, which is the main driver of the model, only accounts for 20–40% of the variance of fish densities across the Everglades landscape. Sensitivity analyses indicate that fish in this system are very sensitive to frequency, size and location of permanent ponds as well as availability of prey.

  14. Systems Modeling at Multiple Levels of Regulation: Linking Systems and Genetic Networks to Spatially Explicit Plant Populations

    PubMed Central

    Kitchen, James L.; Allaby, Robin G.

    2013-01-01

    Selection and adaptation of individuals to their underlying environments are highly dynamical processes, encompassing interactions between the individual and its seasonally changing environment, synergistic or antagonistic interactions between individuals and interactions amongst the regulatory genes within the individual. Plants are useful organisms to study within systems modeling because their sedentary nature simplifies interactions between individuals and the environment, and many important plant processes such as germination or flowering are dependent on annual cycles which can be disrupted by climate behavior. Sedentism makes plants relevant candidates for spatially explicit modeling that is tied in with dynamical environments. We propose that in order to fully understand the complexities behind plant adaptation, a system that couples aspects from systems biology with population and landscape genetics is required. A suitable system could be represented by spatially explicit individual-based models where the virtual individuals are located within time-variable heterogeneous environments and contain mutable regulatory gene networks. These networks could directly interact with the environment, and should provide a useful approach to studying plant adaptation. PMID:27137364

  15. Relative role of deterministic and stochastic determinants of soil animal community: a spatially explicit analysis of oribatid mites.

    PubMed

    Caruso, Tancredi; Taormina, Mauro; Migliorini, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    1. Ecologists are debating the relative role of deterministic and stochastic determinants of community structure. Although the high diversity and strong spatial structure of soil animal assemblages could provide ecologists with an ideal ecological scenario, surprisingly little information is available on these assemblages. 2. We studied species-rich soil oribatid mite assemblages from a Mediterranean beech forest and a grassland. We applied multivariate regression approaches and analysed spatial autocorrelation at multiple spatial scales using Moran's eigenvectors. Results were used to partition community variance in terms of the amount of variation uniquely accounted for by environmental correlates (e.g. organic matter) and geographical position. Estimated neutral diversity and immigration parameters were also applied to a soil animal group for the first time to simulate patterns of community dissimilarity expected under neutrality, thereby testing neutral predictions. 3. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation, the correlation between community structure and key environmental parameters disappeared: about 40% of community variation consisted of spatial patterns independent of measured environmental variables such as organic matter. Environmentally independent spatial patterns encompassed the entire range of scales accounted for by the sampling design (from tens of cm to 100 m). This spatial variation could be due to either unmeasured but spatially structured variables or stochastic drift mediated by dispersal. Observed levels of community dissimilarity were significantly different from those predicted by neutral models. 4. Oribatid mite assemblages are dominated by processes involving both deterministic and stochastic components and operating at multiple scales. Spatial patterns independent of the measured environmental variables are a prominent feature of the targeted assemblages, but patterns of community dissimilarity do not match neutral predictions

  16. Assembling spatially explicit landscape models of pollen and spore dispersal by wind for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Shaw, M W; Harwood, T D; Wilkinson, M J; Elliott, L

    2006-07-01

    Models of windblown pollen or spore movement are required to predict gene flow from genetically modified (GM) crops and the spread of fungal diseases. We suggest a simple form for a function describing the distance moved by a pollen grain or fungal spore, for use in generic models of dispersal. The function has power-law behaviour over sub-continental distances. We show that air-borne dispersal of rapeseed pollen in two experiments was inconsistent with an exponential model, but was fitted by power-law models, implying a large contribution from distant fields to the catches observed. After allowance for this 'background' by applying Fourier transforms to deconvolve the mixture of distant and local sources, the data were best fit by power-laws with exponents between 1.5 and 2. We also demonstrate that for a simple model of area sources, the median dispersal distance is a function of field radius and that measurement from the source edge can be misleading. Using an inverse-square dispersal distribution deduced from the experimental data and the distribution of rapeseed fields deduced by remote sensing, we successfully predict observed rapeseed pollen density in the city centres of Derby and Leicester (UK).

  17. Assembling spatially explicit landscape models of pollen and spore dispersal by wind for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Shaw, M W; Harwood, T D; Wilkinson, M J; Elliott, L

    2006-07-01

    Models of windblown pollen or spore movement are required to predict gene flow from genetically modified (GM) crops and the spread of fungal diseases. We suggest a simple form for a function describing the distance moved by a pollen grain or fungal spore, for use in generic models of dispersal. The function has power-law behaviour over sub-continental distances. We show that air-borne dispersal of rapeseed pollen in two experiments was inconsistent with an exponential model, but was fitted by power-law models, implying a large contribution from distant fields to the catches observed. After allowance for this 'background' by applying Fourier transforms to deconvolve the mixture of distant and local sources, the data were best fit by power-laws with exponents between 1.5 and 2. We also demonstrate that for a simple model of area sources, the median dispersal distance is a function of field radius and that measurement from the source edge can be misleading. Using an inverse-square dispersal distribution deduced from the experimental data and the distribution of rapeseed fields deduced by remote sensing, we successfully predict observed rapeseed pollen density in the city centres of Derby and Leicester (UK). PMID:16769644

  18. Incorporating spatially explicit crown light competition into a model of canopy transpiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loranty, M. M.; Mackay, D. S.; Roberts, D. E.; Ewers, B. E.; Kruger, E. L.; Traver, E.

    2006-12-01

    Stomatal conductance parameterized in a transpiration model has been shown to vary spatially for aspen ( Populus tremuloides) and alder (Alnus incana) growing along a moisture gradient. We hypothesized that competition for light within the canopy would explain some of this variation. Sap flux data was collected over 10 days in 2004, and 30 days in 2005 at a 1.5 ha site near the WLEF AmeriFlux tower in the Chequmegon National Forest near Park Falls, Wisconsin. We used inverse modeling with the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) to estimate values of GSref for individual trees. Competition data for individual aspen sampled for sap flux was collected in August 2006. The number, height, DBH, and location of all competitors within 5 meters of each flux tree were recorded. Preliminary geostatistical analysis indicates that the number of competitor trees varies spatially for aspen. We hypothesize that height and species specific crown characteristics of competitor trees will have a spatially variable affect on transpiration via light attenuation. Furthermore, a simple light competition term will be able to incorporate this variability into the TREES transpiration model.

  19. Spatially explicit control of invasive species using a reaction-diffusion model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bonneau, Mathieu; Johnson, Fred A.; Romagosa, Christina M.

    2016-01-01

    Invasive species, which can be responsible for severe economic and environmental damages, must often be managed over a wide area with limited resources, and the optimal allocation of effort in space and time can be challenging. If the spatial range of the invasive species is large, control actions might be applied only on some parcels of land, for example because of property type, accessibility, or limited human resources. Selecting the locations for control is critical and can significantly impact management efficiency. To help make decisions concerning the spatial allocation of control actions, we propose a simulation based approach, where the spatial distribution of the invader is approximated by a reaction–diffusion model. We extend the classic Fisher equation to incorporate the effect of control both in the diffusion and local growth of the invader. The modified reaction–diffusion model that we propose accounts for the effect of control, not only on the controlled locations, but on neighboring locations, which are based on the theoretical speed of the invasion front. Based on simulated examples, we show the superiority of our model compared to the state-of-the-art approach. We illustrate the use of this model for the management of Burmese pythons in the Everglades (Florida, USA). Thanks to the generality of the modified reaction–diffusion model, this framework is potentially suitable for a wide class of management problems and provides a tool for managers to predict the effects of different management strategies.

  20. A spatially explicit analysis of seedling recruitment in the terrestrial orchid Orchis purpurea.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein; Vandepitte, Katrien; Honnay, Olivier; Roldán-Ruiz, Isabel; Wiegand, Thorsten

    2007-01-01

    Seed dispersal and the subsequent recruitment of new individuals into a population are important processes affecting the population dynamics, genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure of plant populations. Spatial patterns of seedling recruitment were investigated in two populations of the terrestrial orchid Orchis purpurea using both univariate and bivariate point pattern analysis, parentage analysis and seed germination experiments. Both adults and recruits showed a clustered spatial distribution with cluster radii of c. 4-5 m. The parentage analysis resulted in offspring-dispersal distances that were slightly larger than distances obtained from the point pattern analyses. The suitability of microsites for germination differed among sites, with strong constraints in one site and almost no constraints in the other. These results provide a clear and coherent picture of recruitment patterns in a tuberous, perennial orchid. Seed dispersal is limited to a few metres from the mother plant, whereas the availability of suitable germination conditions may vary strongly from one site to the next. Because of a time lag of 3-4 yr between seed dispersal and actual recruitment, and irregular flowering and fruiting patterns of adult plants, interpretation of recruitment patterns using point patterns analyses ideally should take into account the demographic properties of orchid populations.

  1. imVisIR - spatially explicit characterisation of soil organic matter quality on the pedon scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffens, Markus; Kohlpaintner, Michael; Buddenbaum, Henning

    2014-05-01

    Organic matter (OM) is an important soil component controlling many chemical and physical properties ranging from nutrient and pollutant sorption to aggregate stability and water holding capacity. Advanced techniques and sophisticated methods have been developed to characterise and separate qualitatively different fractions of SOM. Despite its importance and the technical progress, two main deficiencies still constrain the comprehensive analysis of OM quantity and quality in soils: 1) Most of the techniques (e.g. solid state 13C NMR spectroscopy or fourier-transformed infrared spectroscopy) are destructive so that the sample is lost after the measurement; and 2) SOM quantity and quality generally show a heterogeneous spatial distribution across many scales which is not considered in an adequate way in most studies since the analytical techniques require substantial amounts of soil material impeding the sampling of small structures. The natural arrangement of particles is disturbed and information about the spatial variability and association with other particles is lost. Therefore, an imaging technique that non-destructively measures SOM quantity and quality with a high spatial resolution on the pedon scale is needed. We show the potential of laboratory imaging Vis-NIR spectroscopy for the qualitative mapping of SOM on the pedon scale.

  2. Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shryock, Daniel F.; Havrilla, Caroline A.; DeFalco, Lesley; Esque, Todd C.; Custer, Nathan; Wood, Troy E.

    2015-01-01

    Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua, an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

  3. A novel spatially-explicit condition for the onset of waterborne diseases in complex environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mari, L.; Gatto, M.; Bertuzzo, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Righetto, L.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-12-01

    In spatial models of waterborne infections the condition that all the local reproduction numbers be larger than one is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur. Here, to properly determine epidemic onset conditions, we examine the transition from stable to unstable of the disease-free equilibrium of a system of nonlinear differential equations characterizing the evolution of susceptible and infected individuals within their respective settlements, and pathogen concentration in their accessible environment. Two different network connectivity layers are assumed to link human settlements: hydrologic pathways serve as ecological corridors for pathogens, while human mobility acts as disease vehicle through susceptibles contracting the disease and asymptomatic infectives shedding bacteria at their temporary destinations. We show that an epidemic outbreak can be triggered if the dominant eigenvalue of a generalized reproduction matrix G0, suitably accounting for spatial distribution of human settlements, hydrological pathways for pathogen dispersal and pathogen redistribution mechanisms due to human mobility, is larger than unity. Matrix G0 and its dominant eigenvalue thus replace the usual reproduction number whenever spatial effects on disease propagation cannot be ignored. Conversely, our novel criterion decays into the standard onset condition based on local reproduction numbers in nonspatial settings. By analyzing realistic test cases we show that within a connected network system the disease can start even if all the local reproduction numbers are smaller than unity, or might not start even if all the local reproduction numbers are larger than unity. We also show that onset geography in complex environments is linked to the dominant eigenvector of matrix G0. Applications to cholera outbreaks in developing countries demonstrate that our approach can be successfully used for disease prediction and emergency management.

  4. A Spatial Explicit Watershed Model of Water and Tritium Fluxes in the Vadose Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebel, K. T.; Riha, S. J.; Karssenberg, D.; Hitchcock, D. R.

    2002-05-01

    A simple, spatial, dynamic model of water uptake by trees in a watershed was developed using the PCRaster Environmental Modelling Software. This software provides a computer language especially developed for modeling temporal and spatial processes in a GIS, and is well suited for the development of dynamic ecological and hydrological models. The model we developed is grid based and has vertical layering. The water budget is calculated for each grid cell in every layer for every time step. Change in soil water storage is obtained by adding the incoming water and subtracting the outgoing water in each grid cell soil layer. When a soil layer in a grid cell exceeds field capacity, water can potentially flow to the grid cell in the layer underneath. However, when soil water reaches saturation, water can flow to the grid in the direction of the local drainage. Potential evapotranspiration sets the upper limit of water uptake in this model. Actual transpiration falls below potential evapotranspiration as soil water content approaches the permanent wilting point. The spatial distribution of the water budget components is available for every time step. We are using this model to simulate water uptake and subsurface lateral movement in a coniferous and a mixed hardwood - coniferous forest on Coastal Plain soils of the southern United States. These soils are characteristically sand overlying slowly permeable clays found at depths of 30 to 200 cm. Temporary perched water tables can develop. Twenty-five hectares of the watershed we are modeling is periodically irrigated with tritium enriched water, which we use to validate the model. We use this model to optimize irrigation and evaluate the amount of tritium entering the atmosphere due to evapotranspiration.

  5. Agro-hydrology and multi temporal high resolution remote sensing: toward an explicit spatial processes calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrant, S.; Gascoin, S.; Veloso, A.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Claverie, M.; Rivalland, V.; Dedieu, G.; Demarez, V.; Ceschia, E.; Probst, J.-L.; Durand, P.; Bustillo, V.

    2014-07-01

    The recent and forthcoming availability of high resolution satellite image series offers new opportunities in agro-hydrological research and modeling. We investigated the perspective offered by improving the crop growth dynamic simulation using the distributed agro-hydrological model, Topography based Nitrogen transfer and Transformation (TNT2), using LAI map series derived from 105 Formosat-2 (F2) images during the period 2006-2010. The TNT2 model (Beaujouan et al., 2002), calibrated with discharge and in-stream nitrate fluxes for the period 1985-2001, was tested on the 2006-2010 dataset (climate, land use, agricultural practices, discharge and nitrate fluxes at the outlet). A priori agricultural practices obtained from an extensive field survey such as seeding date, crop cultivar, and fertilizer amount were used as input variables. Continuous values of LAI as a function of cumulative daily temperature were obtained at the crop field level by fitting a double logistic equation against discrete satellite-derived LAI. Model predictions of LAI dynamics with a priori input parameters showed an temporal shift with observed LAI profiles irregularly distributed in space (between field crops) and time (between years). By re-setting seeding date at the crop field level, we proposed an optimization method to minimize efficiently this temporal shift and better fit the crop growth against the spatial observations as well as crop production. This optimization of simulated LAI has a negligible impact on water budget at the catchment scale (1 mm yr-1 in average) but a noticeable impact on in-stream nitrogen fluxes (around 12%) which is of interest considering nitrate stream contamination issues and TNT2 model objectives. This study demonstrates the contribution of forthcoming high spatial and temporal resolution products of Sentinel-2 satellite mission in improving agro-hydrological modeling by constraining the spatial representation of crop productivity.

  6. A theory of forest dynamics: Spatially explicit models and issues of scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pacala, S.

    1990-01-01

    Good progress has been made in the first year of DOE grant (number sign) FG02-90ER60933. The purpose of the project is to develop and investigate models of forest dynamics that apply across a range of spatial scales. The grant is one third of a three-part project. The second third was funded by the NSF this year and is intended to provide the empirical data necessary to calibrate and test small-scale (less than or equal to 1000 ha) models. The final third was also funded this year (NASA), and will provide data to calibrate and test the large-scale features of the models.

  7. Spatially explicit methane emissions from petroleum production and the natural gas system in California.

    PubMed

    Jeong, Seongeun; Millstein, Dev; Fischer, Marc L

    2014-05-20

    We present a new, spatially resolved inventory of methane (CH4) emissions based on US-EPA emission factors and publically available activity data for 2010 California petroleum production and natural gas production, processing, transmission, and distribution. Compared to official California bottom-up inventories, our initial estimates are 3 to 7 times higher for the petroleum and natural gas production sectors but similar for the natural gas transmission and distribution sectors. Evidence from published "top-down" atmospheric measurement campaigns within Southern California supports our initial emission estimates from production and processing but indicates emission estimates from transmission and distribution are low by a factor of approximately 2. To provide emission maps with more accurate total emissions we scale the spatially resolved inventory by sector-specific results from a Southern California aircraft measurement campaign to all of California. Assuming uncertainties are determined by the uncertainties estimated in the top-down study, our estimated state total CH4 emissions are 541 ± 144 Gg yr(-1) (as compared with 210.7 Gg yr(-1) in California's current official inventory), where the majority of our reported uncertainty is derived from transmission and distribution. We note uncertainties relative to the mean for a given region are likely larger than that for the State total, emphasizing the need for additional measurements in undersampled regions.

  8. Spatially explicit predictions of blood parasites in a widely distributed African rainforest bird

    PubMed Central

    Sehgal, R. N. M.; Buermann, W.; Harrigan, R. J.; Bonneaud, C.; Loiseau, C.; Chasar, A.; Sepil, I.; Valkiūnas, G.; Iezhova, T.; Saatchi, S.; Smith, T. B.

    2011-01-01

    Critical to the mitigation of parasitic vector-borne diseases is the development of accurate spatial predictions that integrate environmental conditions conducive to pathogen proliferation. Species of Plasmodium and Trypanosoma readily infect humans, and are also common in birds. Here, we develop predictive spatial models for the prevalence of these blood parasites in the olive sunbird (Cyanomitra olivacea). Since this species exhibits high natural parasite prevalence and occupies diverse habitats in tropical Africa, it represents a distinctive ecological model system for studying vector-borne pathogens. We used PCR and microscopy to screen for haematozoa from 28 sites in Central and West Africa. Species distribution models were constructed to associate ground-based and remotely sensed environmental variables with parasite presence. We then used machine-learning algorithm models to identify relationships between parasite prevalence and environmental predictors. Finally, predictive maps were generated by projecting model outputs to geographically unsampled areas. Results indicate that for Plasmodium spp., the maximum temperature of the warmest month was most important in predicting prevalence. For Trypanosoma spp., seasonal canopy moisture variability was the most important predictor. The models presented here visualize gradients of disease prevalence, identify pathogen hotspots and will be instrumental in studying the effects of ecological change on these and other pathogens. PMID:20880888

  9. Spatially explicit predictions of blood parasites in a widely distributed African rainforest bird.

    PubMed

    Sehgal, R N M; Buermann, W; Harrigan, R J; Bonneaud, C; Loiseau, C; Chasar, A; Sepil, I; Valkiūnas, G; Iezhova, T; Saatchi, S; Smith, T B

    2011-04-01

    Critical to the mitigation of parasitic vector-borne diseases is the development of accurate spatial predictions that integrate environmental conditions conducive to pathogen proliferation. Species of Plasmodium and Trypanosoma readily infect humans, and are also common in birds. Here, we develop predictive spatial models for the prevalence of these blood parasites in the olive sunbird (Cyanomitra olivacea). Since this species exhibits high natural parasite prevalence and occupies diverse habitats in tropical Africa, it represents a distinctive ecological model system for studying vector-borne pathogens. We used PCR and microscopy to screen for haematozoa from 28 sites in Central and West Africa. Species distribution models were constructed to associate ground-based and remotely sensed environmental variables with parasite presence. We then used machine-learning algorithm models to identify relationships between parasite prevalence and environmental predictors. Finally, predictive maps were generated by projecting model outputs to geographically unsampled areas. Results indicate that for Plasmodium spp., the maximum temperature of the warmest month was most important in predicting prevalence. For Trypanosoma spp., seasonal canopy moisture variability was the most important predictor. The models presented here visualize gradients of disease prevalence, identify pathogen hotspots and will be instrumental in studying the effects of ecological change on these and other pathogens.

  10. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

    2013-12-01

    The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

  11. Integrating spatially explicit indices of abundance and habitat quality: an applied example for greater sage-grouse management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Ricca, Mark A.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Overton, Cory T.; Davis, Dawn M.; Niell, Lara E.; Espinosa, Shawn P.; Gardner, Scott C.; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Predictive species distributional models are a cornerstone of wildlife conservation planning. Constructing such models requires robust underpinning science that integrates formerly disparate data types to achieve effective species management. Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter “sage-grouse” populations are declining throughout sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America, particularly within the Great Basin, which heightens the need for novel management tools that maximize use of available information. Herein, we improve upon existing species distribution models by combining information about sage-grouse habitat quality, distribution, and abundance from multiple data sources. To measure habitat, we created spatially explicit maps depicting habitat selection indices (HSI) informed by > 35 500 independent telemetry locations from > 1600 sage-grouse collected over 15 years across much of the Great Basin. These indices were derived from models that accounted for selection at different spatial scales and seasons. A region-wide HSI was calculated using the HSI surfaces modelled for 12 independent subregions and then demarcated into distinct habitat quality classes. We also employed a novel index to describe landscape patterns of sage-grouse abundance and space use (AUI). The AUI is a probabilistic composite of: (i) breeding density patterns based on the spatial configuration of breeding leks and associated trends in male attendance; and (ii) year-round patterns of space use indexed by the decreasing probability of use with increasing distance to leks. The continuous AUI surface was then reclassified into two classes representing high and low/no use and abundance. Synthesis and applications. Using the example of sage-grouse, we demonstrate how the joint application of indices of habitat selection, abundance, and space use derived from multiple data sources yields a composite map that can guide effective allocation of management intensity across

  12. Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Prince, Stephen D.

    2007-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

  13. Spatial explicit assessment of rural land abandonment in the Mediterranean area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weissteiner, Christof J.; Boschetti, Mirco; Böttcher, Kristin; Carrara, Paola; Bordogna, Gloria; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro

    2011-10-01

    This study adopts the "syndrome approach", originally defined by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), ( Downing et al., 2002) to assess and map rural land abandonment (RLA), that occurred during the period 1990-2005 within the wider Mediterranean area. The basic idea behind the syndrome approach is to describe change processes by archetypical, dynamic, and co-evolutionary patterns of civilization-nature interactions. In the frame of the Rural Exodus Syndrome the RLA can be interpreted as the occurrence of environmental degradation through the abandonment of traditional agricultural practices. Multi-source spatial data, including biophysical-related variables mainly derived from Earth Observation as well as socio-economical GIS-based data, were used to define proxies for expected underlying processes and drivers of the mentioned syndrome. The analysis of data is rooted in the fuzzy set theory and approximate reasoning techniques which allows for the handling of uncertain and imprecise knowledge of environmental systems. Generalized Conjunction/Disjunction operators (GCD) were applied to compute intermediate indicator score maps representing the conditions that may affect the RLA, and a bipolar operator was used to combine mandatory and favouring conditions with the aim of generating a RLA indicator. The indicator expresses the detailed location and severity, or degree, of the syndrome. The Northern Mediterranean was generally found to suffer from RLA to a distinctly higher degree than the Southern Mediterranean. Reported abandonment studies from the existing literature, the European CORINE land cover map, and the Less Favoured Areas (LFA) map all supported the findings by confirming plausibility through convergence of evidence from comparisons with different types of independent information. This spatially highly-detailed results obtained may be of particular interest to policy and decision makers involved in rural development planning in the

  14. Deconstructing building blocks: preschoolers' spatial assembly performance relates to early mathematical skills.

    PubMed

    Verdine, Brian N; Golinkoff, Roberta M; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathryn; Newcombe, Nora S; Filipowicz, Andrew T; Chang, Alicia

    2014-01-01

    This study focuses on three main goals: First, 3-year-olds' spatial assembly skills are probed using interlocking block constructions (N = 102). A detailed scoring scheme provides insight into early spatial processing and offers information beyond a basic accuracy score. Second, the relation of spatial assembly to early mathematical skills was evaluated. Spatial skill independently predicted a significant amount of the variability in concurrent mathematical performance. Finally, the relation between spatial assembly skill and socioeconomic status (SES), gender, and parent-reported spatial language was examined. While children's performance did not differ by gender, lower SES children were already lagging behind higher SES children in block assembly. Furthermore, lower SES parents reported using significantly fewer spatial words with their children. PMID:24112041

  15. Deconstructing Building Blocks: Preschoolers' Spatial Assembly Performance Relates to Early Mathematics Skills

    PubMed Central

    Verdine, Brian N.; Golinkoff, Roberta Michnick; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathryn; Newcombe, Nora S.; Filipowicz, Andrew T.; Chang, Alicia

    2013-01-01

    This study focuses on three main goals: First, 3-year-olds' spatial assembly skills are probed using interlocking block constructions (N = 102). A detailed scoring scheme provides insight into early spatial processing and offers information beyond a basic accuracy score. Second, the relation of spatial assembly to early mathematics skills was evaluated. Spatial skill independently predicted a significant amount of the variability in concurrent mathematics performance. Finally, the relationship between spatial assembly skill and socioeconomic status, gender, and parent-reported spatial language was examined. While children's performance did not differ by gender, lower-SES children were already lagging behind higher-SES children in block assembly. Furthermore, lower-SES parents reported using significantly fewer spatial words with their children. PMID:24112041

  16. Reducing fertilizer-nitrogen losses from rowcrop landscapes: Insights and implications from a spatially explicit watershed model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McLellan, Eileen; Schilling, Keith; Robertson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    We present conceptual and quantitative models that predict changes in fertilizer-derived nitrogen delivery from rowcrop landscapes caused by agricultural conservation efforts implemented to reduce nutrient inputs and transport and increase nutrient retention in the landscape. To evaluate the relative importance of changes in the sources, transport, and sinks of fertilizer-derived nitrogen across a region, we use the spatially explicit SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes watershed model to map the distribution, at the small watershed scale within the Upper Mississippi-Ohio River Basin (UMORB), of: (1) fertilizer inputs; (2) nutrient attenuation during delivery of those inputs to the UMORB outlet; and (3) nitrogen export from the UMORB outlet. Comparing these spatial distributions suggests that the amount of fertilizer input and degree of nutrient attenuation are both important in determining the extent of nitrogen export. From a management perspective, this means that agricultural conservation efforts to reduce nitrogen export would benefit by: (1) expanding their focus to include activities that restore and enhance nutrient processing in these highly altered landscapes; and (2) targeting specific types of best management practices to watersheds where they will be most valuable. Doing so successfully may result in a shift in current approaches to conservation planning, outreach, and funding.

  17. Global distribution and sources of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export to the coastal zone: Results from a spatially explicit, global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumont, E.; Harrison, J. A.; Kroeze, C.; Bakker, E. J.; Seitzinger, S. P.

    2005-12-01

    Here we describe, test, and apply a spatially explicit, global model for predicting dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by rivers to coastal waters (NEWS-DIN). NEWS-DIN was developed as part of an internally consistent suite of global nutrient export models. Modeled and measured DIN export values agree well (calibration R2 = 0.79), and NEWS-DIN is relatively free of bias. NEWS-DIN predicts: DIN yields ranging from 0.0004 to 5217 kg N km-2 yr-1 with the highest DIN yields occurring in Europe and South East Asia; global DIN export to coastal waters of 25 Tg N yr-1, with 16 Tg N yr-1 from anthropogenic sources; biological N2 fixation is the dominant source of exported DIN; and globally, and on every continent except Africa, N fertilizer is the largest anthropogenic source of DIN export to coastal waters.

  18. Multi-variate spatial explicit constraining of a large scale hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis

    2016-04-01

    model parameters leads to considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components, while maintaining total runoff estimates unaltered. Objective functions that take into account the spatial patters of GRACE estimates perform better than those constrained only against discharge. Improvements in parameter estimation based on multiple data sources will enhance the community efforts towards spatially consistent large scale seamless predictions. Reference: Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Mai, J., Cuntz, M., Thober, S., Zink, M., Attinger, S., Schäfer, D., Schrön, M., Samaniego, L. (2016): Multiscale and multivariate evaluation of water fluxes and states over European river basins, J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 287-307, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0054.1.

  19. Spatially explicit modeling of blackbird abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Forcey, Greg M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Linz, George M.; McKann, Patrick C.; Crimmins, Shawn M.

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of factors influencing animal abundance is important to wildlife biologists developing management plans. This is especially true for economically important species such as blackbirds (Icteridae), which cause more than $100 million in crop damages annually in the United States. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the National Land Cover Dataset, and the National Climatic Data Center, we modeled effects of regional environmental variables on relative abundance of 3 blackbird species (red-winged blackbird,Agelaius phoeniceus; yellow-headed blackbird, Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus; common grackle, Quiscalus quiscula) in the Prairie Pothole Region of the central United States. We evaluated landscape covariates at 3 logarithmically related spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and modeled weather variables at the 100,000-ha scale. We constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations. We fit models with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both landscape and weather variables contributed strongly to predicting blackbird relative abundance (95% credibility interval did not overlap 0). Variables with the strongest associations with blackbird relative abundance were the percentage of wetland area and precipitation amount from the year before bird surveys were conducted. The influence of spatial scale appeared small—models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. This large-scale study elucidated regional effects of weather and landscape variables, suggesting that management strategies aimed at reducing damages caused by these species should consider the broader landscape, including weather effects, because such factors may outweigh the influence of localized conditions or site-specific management actions. The regional species distributional models we developed for blackbirds provide a tool for understanding these broader

  20. An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling: the lulcc R package

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

    2015-10-01

    We present the lulcc software package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of alternative models; and (3) additional software is required because existing applications frequently perform only the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a data set included with the package. It is envisaged that lulcc will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

  1. Using spatially explicit models to characterize foraging performance in heterogeneous landscapes.

    PubMed

    Grünbaum, D

    1998-02-01

    The success of most foragers is constrained by limits to their sensory perception, memory, and locomotion. However, a general and quantitative understanding of how these constraints affect foraging benefits, and the trade-offs they imply for foraging strategies, is difficult to achieve. This article develops foraging performance statistics to assess constraints and define trade-offs for foragers using biased random walk behaviors, a widespread class of foraging strategies that includes area-restricted searches, kineses, and taxes. The statistics are expected payoff and expected travel time and assess two components of foraging performance: how effectively foragers distinguish between resource-poor and resource-rich parts of their environments and how quickly foragers in poor parts of the environment locate resource concentrations. These statistics provide a link between mechanistic models of individuals' movement and functional responses, population-level models of forager distributions in space and time, and foraging theory predictions of optimal forager distributions and criteria for abandoning resource patches. Application of the analysis to area-restricted search in coccinellid beetles suggests that the most essential aspect of these predators's foraging strategy is the "turning threshold," the prey density at which ladybirds switch from slow to rapid turning. This threshold effectively determines whether a forager exploits or abandons a resource concentration. Foraging is most effective when the threshold is tuned to match physiological or energetic requirements. These performance statistics also help anticipate and interpret the dynamics of complex spatially and temporally varying forager-resource systems.

  2. Impacts of impervious surface expansion on soil organic carbon - a spatially explicit study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Yan; Kuang, Wenhui; Zhang, Chi; Chen, Chunbo

    2015-12-01

    The rapid expansion of impervious surface areas (ISA) threatens soil organic carbon (SOC) pools in urbanized areas globally. The paucity of field observations on SOC under ISA (SOCISA), especially in dryland areas has limited our ability to assess the ecological impacts of ISA expansion. Based on systematically measured SOCISA (0-80 cm depth) of a dryland city, and land-use and land-cover change data derived from remotely sensed data, we investigated the magnitude and vertical/horizontal patterns of SOCISA and mapped the impact of ISA expansion on SOC storage. The mean SOCISA in the city was 5.36 ± 0.51 kg C m-2, lower than that observed in humid cities but much higher than that assumed in many regional carbon assessments. SOCISA decreased linearly as the soil depth or the horizontal distance from the open area increased. SOCISA accounted for over half of the city’s SOC stock, which decreased by 16% (primarily in the converted croplands) because of ISA expansion from 1990 to 2010. The impacts of the ISA expansion varied spatially, depending on the land- use and converted land-cover type.

  3. Impacts of impervious surface expansion on soil organic carbon – a spatially explicit study

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Yan; Kuang, Wenhui; Zhang, Chi; Chen, Chunbo

    2015-01-01

    The rapid expansion of impervious surface areas (ISA) threatens soil organic carbon (SOC) pools in urbanized areas globally. The paucity of field observations on SOC under ISA (SOCISA), especially in dryland areas has limited our ability to assess the ecological impacts of ISA expansion. Based on systematically measured SOCISA (0–80 cm depth) of a dryland city, and land-use and land-cover change data derived from remotely sensed data, we investigated the magnitude and vertical/horizontal patterns of SOCISA and mapped the impact of ISA expansion on SOC storage. The mean SOCISA in the city was 5.36 ± 0.51 kg C m−2, lower than that observed in humid cities but much higher than that assumed in many regional carbon assessments. SOCISA decreased linearly as the soil depth or the horizontal distance from the open area increased. SOCISA accounted for over half of the city’s SOC stock, which decreased by 16% (primarily in the converted croplands) because of ISA expansion from 1990 to 2010. The impacts of the ISA expansion varied spatially, depending on the land- use and converted land-cover type. PMID:26642831

  4. A spatially and temporally explicit model for determining the exposure of juvenile salmon to agricultural pesticides in freshwater.

    PubMed

    Teply, Mark; Cramer, Steven P; Poletika, Nicholas N

    2012-04-01

    In this paper, we present a novel approach for determining the probable co-occurrence of juvenile salmon or steelhead with agricultural pesticides and apply it to spring Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) salmon in the Willamette Basin, Oregon. We adapted a published exposure analysis framework by explicitly considering fish migration among habitat units and assuming that habitat use is proportional to habitat quality. Temporal variability in habitat use was accounted for via biweekly time steps over the entire period when a single brood was expected to spawn until the last juvenile migrated to sea. Spatial variability was accounted for at the watershed and reach scale. Exposure to 6 acetylcholinesterase-inhibiting insecticides at any life stage was expressed in terms of the future adults (adult-equivalents; AEQ). Several datasets were available to inform our framework with input values on extent of spring Chinook fish use, habitat quality preferred by juvenile spring Chinook, choice of juvenile life-history pathways, timing of emergence, and timing of migration either in-stream or to sea. We used insecticide concentration profiles constructed from available monitoring data to demonstrate the effect of accounting for variation in space and time on predicted exposure to chemical residues. In contrast to the assumption commonly used in screening-level risk assessments that the entire population in a watershed is exposed, available data applied to our model framework indicate that a small fraction of AEQ juveniles in the Willamette Basin would co-occur with detectable concentrations of the 6 insecticides. Overall, our results indicated that the use of a spatially and temporally explicit framework yields a better understanding of the proportion of organisms potentially impacted by agricultural pesticides.

  5. A Spatially Explicit Model of Functional Connectivity for the Endangered Przewalski’s Gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) in a Patchy Landscape

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chunlin; Jiang, Zhigang; Fang, Hongxia; Li, Chunwang

    2013-01-01

    Background Habitat fragmentation, associated with human population expansion, impedes dispersal, reduces gene flow and aggravates inbreeding in species on the brink of extinction. Both scientific and conservation communities increasingly realize that maintaining and restoring landscape connectivity is of vital importance in biodiversity conservation. Prior to any conservation initiatives, it is helpful to present conservation practitioners with a spatially explicit model of functional connectivity for the target species or landscape. Methodology/Principal Findings Using Przewalski’s gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) as a model of endangered ungulate species in highly fragmented landscape, we present a model providing spatially explicit information to inform the long-term preservation of well-connected metapopulations. We employed a Geographic Information System (GIS) and expert-literature method to create a habitat suitability map, to identify potential habitats and to delineate a functional connectivity network (least-cost movement corridors and paths) for the gazelle. Results indicated that there were limited suitable habitats for the gazelle, mainly found to the north and northwest of the Qinghai Lake where four of five potential habitat patches were identified. Fifteen pairs of least-cost corridors and paths were mapped connecting eleven extant populations and two neighboring potential patches. The least-cost paths ranged from 0.2 km to 26.8 km in length (averaging 12.4 km) and were all longer than corresponding Euclidean distances. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs were validated and supported by the latest findings in landscape genetics of the species, and may provide impetus for connectivity conservation programs. Dispersal barriers were examined and appropriate mitigation strategies were suggested. This study provides conservation practitioners with thorough and visualized information to reserve the landscape connectivity for Przewalski’s gazelle

  6. Modeling spatially- and temporally-explicit water stress indices for use in life cycle assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scherer, L.; Venkatesh, A.; Karuppiah, R.; Usadi, A.; Pfister, S.; Hellweg, S.

    2013-12-01

    Water scarcity is a regional issue in many areas across the world, and can affect human health and ecosystems locally. Water stress indices (WSIs) have been developed as quantitative indicators of such scarcities - examples include the Falkenmark indicator, Social Water Stress Index, and the Water Supply Stress Index1. Application of these indices helps us understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users, including those in the agricultural, industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Pfister et al.2 developed a method to calculate WSIs that were used to estimate characterization factors (CFs) in order to quantify environmental impacts of freshwater consumption within a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. Global WSIs were based on data from the WaterGAP model3, and presented as annual averages for watersheds. Since water supply and demand varies regionally and temporally, the resolution used in Pfister et al. does not effectively differentiate between seasonal and permanent water scarcity. This study aims to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the water scarcity calculations used to estimate WSIs and CFs. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)4 hydrological model to properly simulate water supply in different world regions with high spatial and temporal resolution, and coupled it with water use data from WaterGAP3 and Pfister et al.5. Input data to SWAT included weather, land use, soil characteristics and a digital elevation model (DEM), all from publicly available global data sets. Potential evapotranspiration, which affects water supply, was determined using an improved Priestley-Taylor approach. In contrast to most other hydrological studies, large reservoirs, water consumption and major water transfers were simulated. The model was calibrated against observed monthly discharge, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalents wherever appropriate. Based on these simulations, monthly WSIs were calculated for a few

  7. Spatially explicit feedbacks between seagrass meadow structure, sediment and light: Habitat suitability for seagrass growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, Joel A.; D'Odorico, Paolo; McGlathery, Karen J.; Wiberg, Patricia L.

    2016-07-01

    In shallow coastal bays where nutrient loading and riverine inputs are low, turbidity, and the consequent light environment are controlled by resuspension of bed sediments due to wind-waves and tidal currents. High sediment resuspension and low light environments can limit benthic primary productivity; however, both currents and waves are affected by the presence of benthic plants such as seagrass. This feedback between the presence of benthic primary producers such as seagrass and the consequent light environment has been predicted to induce bistable dynamics locally. However, these vegetated areas influence a larger area than they footprint, including a barren adjacent downstream area which exhibits reduced shear stresses. Here we explore through modeling how the patchy structure of seagrass meadows on a landscape may affect sediment resuspension and the consequent light environment due to the presence of this sheltered region. Heterogeneous vegetation covers comprising a mosaic of randomly distributed patches were generated to investigate the effect of patch modified hydrodynamics. Actual cover of vegetation on the landscape was used to facilitate comparisons across landscape realizations. Hourly wave and current shear stresses on the landscape along with suspended sediment concentration and light attenuation characteristics were then calculated and spatially averaged to examine how actual cover and mean water depth affect the bulk sediment and light environment. The results indicate that an effective cover, which incorporates the sheltering area, has important controls on the distributions of shear stress, suspended sediment, light environment, and consequent seagrass habitat suitability. Interestingly, an optimal habitat occurs within a depth range where, if actual cover is reduced past some threshold, the bulk light environment would no longer favor seagrass growth.

  8. Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aldridge, C.L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

    2012-01-01

    Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of

  9. Spatially explicit feedbacks between seagrass meadow structure, sediment and light: Habitat suitability for seagrass growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carr, Joel; D'Odorico, Paul; McGlathery, Karen; Wiberg, Patricia L.

    2016-01-01

    In shallow coastal bays where nutrient loading and riverine inputs are low, turbidity, and the consequent light environment are controlled by resuspension of bed sediments due to wind-waves and tidal currents. High sediment resuspension and low light environments can limit benthic primary productivity; however, both currents and waves are affected by the presence of benthic plants such as seagrass. This feedback between the presence of benthic primary producers such as seagrass and the consequent light environment has been predicted to induce bistable dynamics locally. However, these vegetated areas influence a larger area than they footprint, including a barren adjacent downstream area which exhibits reduced shear stresses. Here we explore through modeling how the patchy structure of seagrass meadows on a landscape may affect sediment resuspension and the consequent light environment due to the presence of this sheltered region. Heterogeneous vegetation covers comprising a mosaic of randomly distributed patches were generated to investigate the effect of patch modified hydrodynamics. Actual cover of vegetation on the landscape was used to facilitate comparisons across landscape realizations. Hourly wave and current shear stresses on the landscape along with suspended sediment concentration and light attenuation characteristics were then calculated and spatially averaged to examine how actual cover and mean water depth affect the bulk sediment and light environment. The results indicate that an effective cover, which incorporates the sheltering area, has important controls on the distributions of shear stress, suspended sediment, light environment, and consequent seagrass habitat suitability. Interestingly, an optimal habitat occurs within a depth range where, if actual cover is reduced past some threshold, the bulk light environment would no longer favor seagrass growth.

  10. A Spatially-Explicit Modeling Approach to Examine the Interaction of Reproductive Traits and Landscape Characteristics on Arctic Shrub Expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naito, A. T.; Cairns, D. M.; Feldman, R. M.; Grant, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    Shrub expansion is one of the most recognized components of terrestrial Arctic change. While experimental work has provided valuable insights into its fine-scale drivers and implications, the contribution of shrub reproductive characteristics to their spatial patterns is poorly understood at broader scales. Building upon our previous work in river valleys in northern Alaska, we developed a C#-based spatially-explicit model that simulates historic landscape-scale shrub establishment between the 1970s and the late 2000s on a yearly time-step while accounting for parameters relating to different reproduction modes (clonal development with and without the "mass effect" and short-distance dispersal), as well as the presence and absence of the interaction of hydrologic constraints using the topographic wetness index. We examined these treatments on floodplains, valley slopes, and interfluves in the Ayiyak, Colville, and Kurupa River valleys. After simulating 30 landscape realizations using each parameter combination, we quantified the spatial characteristics (patch density, edge density, patch size variability, area-weighted shape index, area-weighted fractal dimension index, and mean distance between patches) of the resulting shrub patches on the simulation end date using FRAGSTATS. We used Principal Components Analysis to determine which treatments produced spatial characteristics most similar to those observed in the late 2000s. Based upon our results, we hypothesize that historic shrub expansion in northern Alaska has been driven in part by clonal reproduction with the "mass effect" or short-distance dispersal (< 5 m). The interactive effect of hydrologic characteristics, however, is less clear. These hypotheses may then be tested in future work involving field observations. Given the potential that climate change may facilitate a shift from a clonal to a sexual reproductive strategy, this model may facilitate predictions regarding future Arctic vegetation patterns.

  11. Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

  12. Spatially explicit measures of production of young alewives in Lake Michigan: Linkage between essential fish habitat and recruitment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hook, Tomas O.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Brines, Shannon J.; Mason, Doran M.; Schwab, David J.; McCormick, Michael; Desorcie, Timothy J.

    2003-01-01

    The identification and protection of essential habitats for early life stages of fishes are necessary to sustain fish stocks. Essential fish habitat for early life stages may be defined as areas where fish densities, growth, survival, or production rates are relatively high. To identify critical habitats for young-of-year (YOY) alewives (Alosa pseud oharengus) in Lake Michigan, we integrated bioenergetics models with GIS (Geographic Information Systems) to generate spatially explicit estimates of potential population production (an index of habitat quality). These estimates were based upon YOY alewife bioenergetic growth rate potential and their salmonine predators’ consumptive demand. We compared estimates of potential population production to YOY alewife yield (an index of habitat importance). Our analysis suggested that during 1994–1995, YOY alewife habitat quality and yield varied widely throughout Lake Michigan. Spatial patterns of alewife yield were not significantly correlated to habitat quality. Various mechanisms (e.g., predator migrations, lake circulation patterns, alternative strategies) may preclude YOY alewives from concentrating in areas of high habitat quality in Lake Michigan.

  13. A spatially and temporally explicit life cycle inventory of air pollutants from gasoline and ethanol in the United States.

    PubMed

    Tessum, Christopher W; Marshall, Julian D; Hill, Jason D

    2012-10-16

    The environmental health impacts of transportation depend in part on where and when emissions occur during fuel production and combustion. Here we describe spatially and temporally explicit life cycle inventories (LCI) of air pollutants from gasoline, ethanol derived from corn grain, and ethanol from corn stover. Previous modeling for the U.S. by Argonne National Laboratory (GREET: Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) suggested that life cycle emissions are generally higher for ethanol from corn grain or corn stover than for gasoline. Our results show that for ethanol, emissions are concentrated in the Midwestern "Corn Belt". We find that life cycle emissions from ethanol exhibit different temporal patterns than from gasoline, reflecting seasonal aspects of farming activities. Enhanced chemical speciation beyond current GREET model capabilities is also described. Life cycle fine particulate matter emissions are higher for ethanol from corn grain than for ethanol from corn stover; for black carbon, the reverse holds. Overall, our results add to existing state-of-the-science transportation fuel LCI by providing spatial and temporal disaggregation and enhanced chemical speciation, thereby offering greater understanding of the impacts of transportation fuels on human health and opening the door to advanced air dispersion modeling of fuel life cycles.

  14. Uncertainty analysis of a spatially explicit annual water-balance model: case study of the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, P.; Guswa, A. J.

    2015-02-01

    There is an increasing demand for assessment of water provisioning ecosystem services. While simple models with low data and expertise requirements are attractive, their use as decision-aid tools should be supported by uncertainty characterization. We assessed the performance of the InVEST annual water yield model, a popular tool for ecosystem service assessment based on the Budyko hydrological framework. Our study involved the comparison of 10 subcatchments ranging in size and land-use configuration, in the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina. We analyzed the model sensitivity to climate variables and input parameters, and the structural error associated with the use of the Budyko framework, a lumped (catchment-scale) model theory, in a spatially explicit way. Comparison of model predictions with observations and with the lumped model predictions confirmed that the InVEST model is able to represent differences in land uses and therefore in the spatial distribution of water provisioning services. Our results emphasize the effect of climate input errors, especially annual precipitation, and errors in the ecohydrological parameter Z, which are both comparable to the model structure uncertainties. Our case study supports the use of the model for predicting land-use change effect on water provisioning, although its use for identifying areas of high water yield will be influenced by precipitation errors. While some results are context-specific, our study provides general insights and methods to help identify the regions and decision contexts where the model predictions may be used with confidence.

  15. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics at 0.25° horizontal resolution for forest bioenergy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherubini, F.

    2015-12-01

    Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy remain partially unexplored. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored. Emission metrics of CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis and their quantification requires processing of a wide spectrum of modelled or observed local climate and forest conditions. On the other hand, emission metrics are widely used to aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.), but a spatially explicit analysis of emission metrics with global forest coverage is today lacking. Examples of emission metrics include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Here, we couple a global forest model, a heterotrophic respiration model, and a global climate model to produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy. We show their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the different RCP scenarios. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation), 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for GWP, GTP and aSET, respectively. We also present results aggregated at a grid, national and continental level. The metrics are found to correlate with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables like annual mean temperature and precipitation. Simplified

  16. Spatially and temporally reconfigurable assembly of colloidal crystals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Youngri; Shah, Aayush A.; Solomon, Michael J.

    2014-04-01

    The self-assembly of colloidal crystals is important to the production of materials with functional optical, mechanical and conductive properties. Yet, self-assembly methods are limited by their slow kinetics and lack of structural control in space and time. Refinements such as templating and directed assembly partially address the problem, albeit by introducing fixed surface features such as templates or electrodes. A template-free method to reconfigure colloidal crystals simultaneously in three-dimensional space and time would better align work in colloidal assembly with materials applications. Here, we report a photo-induced assembly method that yields regions either filled with colloidal crystals or completely devoid of colloids. The origin of the effect is found to be electrophoresis of colloids generated by photochemistry at an indium tin oxide-coated substrate. Simple optical manipulations are applied to reconfigure these assembly and depletion regions. Thus, the method represents a new kind of template-free, reconfigurable three-dimensional photolithography.

  17. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new, seasonal, spatially explicit, global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCrackin, Michelle L.; Harrison, John A.; Compton, Jana E.

    2014-03-01

    Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls of coastal DIN delivery across large spatial scales. Understanding seasonal patterns of DIN export is critical to efforts to predict impacts of coastal eutrophication, such as algal blooms and hypoxic areas, which are often seasonal phenomena. Here we describe, test, and apply a global model that predicts seasonal DIN export to coastal regions for >6000 rivers using the Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS2) model. NEWS2-DIN-S used spatially explicit, seasonal N inputs and was calibrated with measured DIN yield (kg N km-2 season-1) for 77 rivers, distributed globally. Of the characteristics considered, DIN-transport efficiency was positively related to runoff and negatively related to temperature (r2 = 0.34-0.60, depending on season p < 0.0001), likely due to flushing effects and increased retention by plants and soils, respectively. NEWS2-DIN-S incorporated these insights and performed well in predicting DIN yield (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency = 0.54-0.65, depending on season). Catchments were effective in retaining DIN and average export rates were lower during the growing season (3-5% of total nitrogen inputs) compared to other seasons (6-10%) for major latitude bands. Model output was insensitive to changes in the magnitude of N inputs, suggesting that refinement of seasonal N input budgets will not substantially improve model performance. Rather, better representation of land-to-river N transfers could improve future models because of strong landscape N attenuation.

  18. Factors Influencing Export Of Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen By Major Rivers: A New, Seasonal, Spatially Explicit, Global Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCrackin, M. L.; Harrison, J.; Compton, J.

    2013-12-01

    Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls of coastal DIN delivery across large spatial scales. Understanding sub-annual patterns and delivery DIN export from rivers to coastal areas is critical to efforts to predict impacts of coastal eutrophication, such as algal blooms and hypoxic areas, which are often seasonal phenomena. Here we describe, test, and apply NEWS2-DIN-S, the first global model capable of predicting seasonal DIN export to coastal regions for over 6,000 rivers for the contemporary period (2000). NEWS2-DIN-S used spatially explicit, seasonal N-inputs and was calibrated with measured DIN yield (kg N km-2 y-1) for 75 global rivers. Of the catchment characteristics considered, DIN export was positively related to runoff and negatively related to temperature across seasons (r2 = 0.39-0.95, p<0.0001, depending on season), due likely to flushing effects and increased retention by plants and soils, respectively. NEWS2-DIN-S incorporated these insights and performed well in predicting DIN yield (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency = 0.44-0.65, depending on season). Model runs showed that catchments were effective in retaining DIN and average export rates were generally lower during the growing season (3-5%) compared to other seasons (6-10%) for major latitude bands. Model output was relatively insensitive to changes in the magnitude of N inputs, suggesting that further refinement of seasonal N budgets will not substantially improve predictive performance. Rather, better representation of land-to-river N transfers could improve the predictive capacity of future models because of the importance of landscape N-attenuation.

  19. A High-Resolution Spatially Explicit Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach to Commercial and Residential Electricity and Water Demand Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Morton, April M; McManamay, Ryan A; Nagle, Nicholas N; Piburn, Jesse O; Stewart, Robert N; Surendran Nair, Sujithkumar

    2016-01-01

    Abstract As urban areas continue to grow and evolve in a world of increasing environmental awareness, the need for high resolution spatially explicit estimates for energy and water demand has become increasingly important. Though current modeling efforts mark significant progress in the effort to better understand the spatial distribution of energy and water consumption, many are provided at a course spatial resolution or rely on techniques which depend on detailed region-specific data sources that are not publicly available for many parts of the U.S. Furthermore, many existing methods do not account for errors in input data sources and may therefore not accurately reflect inherent uncertainties in model outputs. We propose an alternative and more flexible Monte-Carlo simulation approach to high-resolution residential and commercial electricity and water consumption modeling that relies primarily on publicly available data sources. The method s flexible data requirement and statistical framework ensure that the model is both applicable to a wide range of regions and reflective of uncertainties in model results. Key words: Energy Modeling, Water Modeling, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Uncertainty Quantification Acknowledgment This manuscript has been authored by employees of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Accordingly, the United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.

  20. Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xinxin; Ermolieva, Tatiana; Balkovic, Juraj; Mosnier, Aline; Kraxner, Florian; Liu, Junguo

    Downscaling methods assist decision makers in coping with the uncertainty regarding sustainable local area developments. In particular, they allow investigating local heterogeneities regarding water, food, energy, and environment consistently with global, national, and sub-national drivers and trends. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework that integrates a partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) with a dynamic cross-entropy downscaling model to derive spatially explicit projections of land uses at 1-km spatial resolution from 2010 to 2050 relying on aggregate land demand projections. The fusion of the two models is applied in a case study in Heihe River Basin to analyze the extent of potential cropland, grassland, and unused land transformations, which may exacerbate already extensive water consumption caused by rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture in the case study region. The outcomes are illustrated for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The kappa coefficients show that the downscaling results are in agreement with the land use and land cover map of the Heihe River Basin, which indicates that the proposed approach produces realistic local land use projections. The downscaling results show that under both SSP scenarios the cropland area is expected to increase from 2010 to 2050, while the grassland area is projected to increase sharply from 2010 to 2030 and then gradually come to a standstill after 2030. The results can be used as an input for planning sustainable land and water management in the study area, and the conceptual framework provides a general approach to creating high-resolution land-use datasets.

  1. Characterization of the Dispersal of Non-Domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata through the Selection of Spatially Explicit Models

    PubMed Central

    Barbu, Corentin; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

    2010-01-01

    Background Chagas disease is a major parasitic disease in Latin America, prevented in part by vector control programs that reduce domestic populations of triatomines. However, the design of control strategies adapted to non-domiciliated vectors, such as Triatoma dimidiata, remains a challenge because it requires an accurate description of their spatio-temporal distributions, and a proper understanding of the underlying dispersal processes. Methodology/Principal Findings We combined extensive spatio-temporal data sets describing house infestation dynamics by T. dimidiata within a village, and spatially explicit population dynamics models in a selection model approach. Several models were implemented to provide theoretical predictions under different hypotheses on the origin of the dispersers and their dispersal characteristics, which we compared with the spatio-temporal pattern of infestation observed in the field. The best models fitted the dynamic of infestation described by a one year time-series, and also predicted with a very good accuracy the infestation process observed during a second replicate one year time-series. The parameterized models gave key insights into the dispersal of these vectors. i) About 55% of the triatomines infesting houses came from the peridomestic habitat, the rest corresponding to immigration from the sylvatic habitat, ii) dispersing triatomines were 5–15 times more attracted by houses than by peridomestic area, and iii) the moving individuals spread on average over rather small distances, typically 40–60 m/15 days. Conclusion/Significance Since these dispersal characteristics are associated with much higher abundance of insects in the periphery of the village, we discuss the possibility that spatially targeted interventions allow for optimizing the efficacy of vector control activities within villages. Such optimization could prove very useful in the context of limited resources devoted to vector control. PMID:20689823

  2. Spatially-explicit life cycle assessment of sun-to-wheels transportation pathways in the U.S.

    PubMed

    Geyer, Roland; Stoms, David; Kallaos, James

    2013-01-15

    Growth in biofuel production, which is meant to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil energy demand, is increasingly seen as a threat to food supply and natural habitats. Using photovoltaics (PV) to directly convert solar radiation into electricity for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is an alternative to photosynthesis, which suffers from a very low energy conversion efficiency. Assessments need to be spatially explicit, since solar insolation and crop yields vary widely between locations. This paper therefore compares direct land use, life cycle GHG emissions and fossil fuel requirements of five different sun-to-wheels conversion pathways for every county in the contiguous U.S.: Ethanol from corn or switchgrass for internal combustion vehicles (ICVs), electricity from corn or switchgrass for BEVs, and PV electricity for BEVs. Even the most land-use efficient biomass-based pathway (i.e., switchgrass bioelectricity in U.S. counties with hypothetical crop yields of over 24 tonnes/ha) requires 29 times more land than the PV-based alternative in the same locations. PV BEV systems also have the lowest life cycle GHG emissions throughout the U.S. and the lowest fossil fuel inputs, except for locations with hypothetical switchgrass yields of 16 or more tonnes/ha. Including indirect land use effects further strengthens the case for PV. PMID:23268715

  3. Individual-Based Spatially-Explicit Model of an Herbivore and Its Resource: The Effect of Habitat Reduction and Fragmentation

    SciTech Connect

    Kostova, T; Carlsen, T; Kercher, J

    2002-06-17

    We present an individual-based, spatially-explicit model of the dynamics of a small mammal and its resource. The life histories of each individual animal are modeled separately. The individuals can have the status of residents or wanderers and belong to behaviorally differing groups of juveniles or adults and males or females. Their territory defending and monogamous behavior is taken into consideration. The resource, green vegetation, grows depending on seasonal climatic characteristics and is diminished due to the herbivore's grazing. Other specifics such as a varying personal energetic level due to feeding and starvation of the individuals, mating preferences, avoidance of competitors, dispersal of juveniles, as a result of site overgrazing, etc. are included in the model. We determined model parameters from real data for the species Microtus ochrogaster (prairie vole). The simulations are done for a case of an enclosed habitat without predators or other species competitors. The goal of the study is to find the relation between size of habitat and population persistence. The experiments with the model show the populations go extinct due to severe overgrazing, but that the length of population persistence depends on the area of the habitat as well as on the presence of fragmentation. Additionally, the total population size of the vole population obtained during the simulations exhibits yearly fluctuations as well as multi-yearly peaks of fluctuations. This dynamics is similar to the one observed in prairie vole field studies.

  4. Comparing approaches to spatially explicit ecosystem service modeling: a case study from the San Pedro River, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Semmens, Darius J.; Winthrop, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Although the number of ecosystem service modeling tools has grown in recent years, quantitative comparative studies of these tools have been lacking. In this study, we applied two leading open-source, spatially explicit ecosystem services modeling tools – Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) – to the San Pedro River watershed in southeast Arizona, USA, and northern Sonora, Mexico. We modeled locally important services that both modeling systems could address – carbon, water, and scenic viewsheds. We then applied managerially relevant scenarios for urban growth and mesquite management to quantify ecosystem service changes. InVEST and ARIES use different modeling approaches and ecosystem services metrics; for carbon, metrics were more similar and results were more easily comparable than for viewsheds or water. However, findings demonstrate similar gains and losses of ecosystem services and conclusions when comparing effects across our scenarios. Results were more closely aligned for landscape-scale urban-growth scenarios and more divergent for a site-scale mesquite-management scenario. Follow-up studies, including testing in different geographic contexts, can improve our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these and other ecosystem services modeling tools as they move closer to readiness for supporting day-to-day resource management.

  5. Spatially explicit estimates of N2 O emissions from croplands suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved fertilizer management.

    PubMed

    Gerber, James S; Carlson, Kimberly M; Makowski, David; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Launay, Marie; O'Connell, Christine S; Smith, Pete; West, Paul C

    2016-10-01

    With increasing nitrogen (N) application to croplands required to support growing food demand, mitigating N2 O emissions from agricultural soils is a global challenge. National greenhouse gas emissions accounting typically estimates N2 O emissions at the country scale by aggregating all crops, under the assumption that N2 O emissions are linearly related to N application. However, field studies and meta-analyses indicate a nonlinear relationship, in which N2 O emissions are relatively greater at higher N application rates. Here, we apply a super-linear emissions response model to crop-specific, spatially explicit synthetic N fertilizer and manure N inputs to provide subnational accounting of global N2 O emissions from croplands. We estimate 0.66 Tg of N2 O-N direct global emissions circa 2000, with 50% of emissions concentrated in 13% of harvested area. Compared to estimates from the IPCC Tier 1 linear model, our updated N2 O emissions range from 20% to 40% lower throughout sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe, to >120% greater in some Western European countries. At low N application rates, the weak nonlinear response of N2 O emissions suggests that relatively large increases in N fertilizer application would generate relatively small increases in N2 O emissions. As aggregated fertilizer data generate underestimation bias in nonlinear models, high-resolution N application data are critical to support accurate N2 O emissions estimates.

  6. Spatially explicit estimates of N2 O emissions from croplands suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved fertilizer management.

    PubMed

    Gerber, James S; Carlson, Kimberly M; Makowski, David; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Launay, Marie; O'Connell, Christine S; Smith, Pete; West, Paul C

    2016-10-01

    With increasing nitrogen (N) application to croplands required to support growing food demand, mitigating N2 O emissions from agricultural soils is a global challenge. National greenhouse gas emissions accounting typically estimates N2 O emissions at the country scale by aggregating all crops, under the assumption that N2 O emissions are linearly related to N application. However, field studies and meta-analyses indicate a nonlinear relationship, in which N2 O emissions are relatively greater at higher N application rates. Here, we apply a super-linear emissions response model to crop-specific, spatially explicit synthetic N fertilizer and manure N inputs to provide subnational accounting of global N2 O emissions from croplands. We estimate 0.66 Tg of N2 O-N direct global emissions circa 2000, with 50% of emissions concentrated in 13% of harvested area. Compared to estimates from the IPCC Tier 1 linear model, our updated N2 O emissions range from 20% to 40% lower throughout sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe, to >120% greater in some Western European countries. At low N application rates, the weak nonlinear response of N2 O emissions suggests that relatively large increases in N fertilizer application would generate relatively small increases in N2 O emissions. As aggregated fertilizer data generate underestimation bias in nonlinear models, high-resolution N application data are critical to support accurate N2 O emissions estimates. PMID:27185532

  7. Modeling the fate of nitrogen on the catchment scale using a spatially explicit hydro-biogeochemical simulation system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klatt, S.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Kiese, R.; Haas, E.; Kraus, D.; Molina-Herrera, S. W.; Kraft, P.

    2015-12-01

    The continuous growth of the human population demands an equally growing supply for fresh water and food. As a result, available land for efficient agriculture is constantly diminishing which forces farmers to cultivate inferior croplands and intensify agricultural practices, e.g., increase the use of synthetic fertilizers. This intensification of marginal areas in particular will cause a dangerous rise in nitrate discharge into open waters or even drinking water resources. In order to reduce the amount of nitrate lost by surface runoff or lateral subsurface transport, bufferstrips have proved to be a valuable means. Current laws, however, promote rather static designs (i.e., width and usage) even though a multitude of factors, e.g., soil type, slope, vegetation and the nearby agricultural management, determines its effectiveness. We propose a spatially explicit modeling approach enabling to assess the effects of those factors on nitrate discharge from arable lands using the fully distributed hydrology model CMF coupled to the complex biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. Such a modeling scheme allows to observe the displacement of dissolved nutrients in both vertical and horizontal directions and serves to estimate both their uptake by the vegetated bufferstrip and loss to the environment. First results indicate a significant reduction of nitrate loss in the presence of a bufferstrip (2.5 m). We show effects induced by various buffer strip widths and plant cover on the nitrate retention.

  8. Spatially explicit fire-climate history of the boreal forest-tundra (Eastern Canada) over the last 2000 years.

    PubMed

    Payette, Serge; Filion, Louise; Delwaide, Ann

    2008-07-12

    Across the boreal forest, fire is the main disturbance factor and driver of ecosystem changes. In this study, we reconstructed a long-term, spatially explicit fire history of a forest-tundra region in northeastern Canada. We hypothesized that current occupation of similar topographic and edaphic sites by tundra and forest was the consequence of cumulative regression with time of forest cover due to compounding fire and climate disturbances. All fires were mapped and dated per 100 year intervals over the last 2,000 years using several fire dating techniques. Past fire occurrences and post-fire regeneration at the northern forest limit indicate 70% reduction of forest cover since 1800 yr BP and nearly complete cessation of forest regeneration since 900 yr BP. Regression of forest cover was particularly important between 1500s-1700s and possibly since 900 yr BP. Although fire frequency was very low over the last 100 years, each fire event was followed by drastic removal of spruce cover. Contrary to widespread belief of northward boreal forest expansion due to recent warming, lack of post-fire recovery during the last centuries, in comparison with active tree regeneration more than 1,000 years ago, indicates that the current climate does not favour such expansion.

  9. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

    PubMed Central

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

  10. Anthropogenic habitat disturbance and the dynamics of hantavirus using remote sensing, GIS, and a spatially explicit agent-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Lina

    Sin Nombre virus (SNV), a strain of hantavirus, causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, a deadly disease with high mortality rate (>50%). The primary virus host is deer mice, and greater deer mice abundance has been shown to increase the human risk of HPS. There is a great need in understanding the nature of the virus host, its temporal and spatial dynamics, and its relation to the human population with the purpose of predicting human risk of the disease. This research studies SNV dynamics in deer mice in the Great Basin Desert of central Utah, USA using multiyear field data and integrated geospatial approaches including remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and a spatially explicit agent-based model. The goal is to advance our understanding of the important ecological and demographic factors that affect the dynamics of deer mouse population and SNV prevalence. The primary research question is how climate, habitat disturbance, and deer mouse demographics affect deer mouse population density, its movement, and SNV prevalence in the sagebrush habitat. The results show that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) can be good predictors of deer mouse density and the number of infected deer mice with a time lag of 1.0 to 1.3 years. This information can be very useful in predicting mouse abundance and SNV risk. The results also showed that climate, mouse density, sex, mass, and SNV infection had significant effects on deer mouse movement. The effect of habitat disturbance on mouse movement varies according to climate conditions with positive relationship in predrought condition and negative association in postdrought condition. The heavier infected deer mice moved the most. Season and disturbance alone had no significant effects. The spatial agent-based model (SABM) simulation results show that prevalence was negatively related to the disturbance levels and the sensitivity analysis showed that

  11. A spatially explicit multi-isotope approach to map influence regions of plant-plant interactions after exotic plant invasion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellmann, Christine; Oldeland, Jens; Werner, Christiane

    2015-04-01

    Exotic plant invasions impose profound alterations to native ecosystems, including changes of water, carbon and nutrient cycles. However, explicitly quantifying these impacts remains a challenge. Stable isotopes, by providing natural tracers of biogeochemical processes, can help to identify and measure such alterations in space and time. Recently, δ15N isoscapes, i.e. spatially continuous representations of isotopic values, derived from native plant foliage, enabled to accurately trace nitrogen introduced by the N2-fixing invasive Acacia longifolia into a native Portuguese dune system. It could be shown that the area of the system which was altered by the invasive species exceeded the area which was covered by the invader by far. But still, definition of clear regions of influence is to some extent ambiguous. Here, we present an approach using multiple isoscapes derived from measured foliar δ13C and δ15N values of a native, non-fixing species, Corema album. By clustering isotopic information, we obtained an objective classification of the study area. Properties and spatial position of clusters could be interpreted to distinguish areas that were or were not influenced by A. longifolia. Spatial clusters at locations where A. longifolia was present had δ15N values that were enriched, i.e. close to the atmospheric signal of 0 o compared to the depleted values of the uninvaded system (ca. -11 o). Furthermore, C. album individuals in these clusters were characterized by higher foliar N content and enriched δ13C. These results indicate that the N2-fixing A. longifolia added nitrogen to the system which originated from the atmosphere and was used by the native C. album, inducing functional changes, i.e. an increase in WUE. Additionally, clusters were identified that were presumably determined by inherent properties of the native system. Thus, combining isotope ecology with geostatistical methods is a promising approach for mapping regions of influence in multi

  12. High-resolution fingerprints of past landsliding and spatially explicit, probabilistic assessment of future reactivations: Aiguettes landslide, Southeastern French Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez Saez, Jérôme; Corona, Christophe; Stoffel, Markus; Berger, Frédéric

    2013-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of past landslide reactivation and the possible occurrence of future events in a forested area of the Barcelonnette basin (Southeastern French Alps). Analysis of past events on the Aiguettes landslide was based on growth-ring series from 223 heavily affected Mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Mill. ex Mirb.) trees growing on the landslide body. A total of 355 growth disturbances were identified in the samples indicating 14 reactivation phases of the landslide body since AD 1898. Accuracy of the spatio-temporal reconstruction is confirmed by historical records and aerial photographs. Logistic regressions using monthly rainfall data from the HISTALP database indicated that landslide reactivations occurred due to above-average precipitation anomalies in winter. They point to the important role of snow in the triggering of reactivations at the Aiguettes landslide body. In a subsequent step, spatially explicit probabilities of landslide reactivation were computed based on the extensive dendrogeomorphic dataset using a Poisson distribution model for an event to occur in 5, 20, 50, and 100 yr. High-resolution maps indicate highest probabilities of reactivation in the lower part of the landslide body and increase from 0.28 for a 5-yr period to 0.99 for a 100-yr period. In the upper part of the landslide body, probabilities do not exceed 0.57 for a 100-yr period and somehow confirm the more stable character of this segment of the Aiguettes landslide. The approach presented in this paper is considered a valuable tool for land-use planners and emergency cells in charge of forecasting future events and in protecting people and their assets from the negative effects of landslides.

  13. Assessment of mineral concentration impacts from pumped stormwater on an Everglades Wetland, Florida, USA - Using a spatially-explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chunfang; Meselhe, Ehab; Waldon, Michael

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) overlays a 58,725 ha remnant of the Northern Everglades which is termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1). The Refuge is impacted by stormwater inflow from flood control pump stations which discharge to a perimeter canal system inside an impounding levee. These discharges contain elevated mineral and nutrient concentrations, with chloride concentration averaging well over 100 mg/L. It has long been established that the Refuge naturally has low mineral content softwater, and that this low-mineral condition affects the species composition of wetland periphyton that are at the base of much of the Refuge food chain. The interior marsh of the Refuge has today been termed rainfall-driven or ombrotrophic, with median chloride concentration averaging 20.5 mg/L. However, chloride concentration in rain water averages roughly 2 mg/L. The level of impact of exogenous pumped inflow on the concentration of chloride and other mineral constituents in the interior marsh has been unclear, and at times it has been debated whether atmospheric loading and evaporation can alone explain observed concentration of chloride in the interior. We applied a spatially explicit hydrodynamic and constituent transport model, MIKE FLOOD, to estimate the unimpacted condition of the interior. We compare this with simulated and monitored chloride concentrations under current conditions. The model was calibrated for a 5-year period (2000-2004), and validated for a 2-year period (2005-2006). We found that when pumped inflow concentration is reduced to an estimated rainfall chloride concentration, interior chloride concentration ranges typically below 5 mg/L. We therefore conclude that the interior chloride concentration is currently dominated by pumped inflows and should not be termed ombrotrophic. We also present initial modeling of one proposed remedial solution for reducing this impact. Our study demonstrates the feasibility

  14. Renewable Energy Production from Waste to Mitigate Climate Change and Counteract Soil Degradation - A Spatial Explicit Assessment for Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kraxner, Florian; Yoshikawa, Kunio; Leduc, Sylvain; Fuss, Sabine; Aoki, Kentaro; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2014-05-01

    Waste production from urban areas is growing faster than urbanization itself, while at the same time urban areas are increasingly contributing substantial emissions causing climate change. Estimates indicate for urban residents a per capita solid waste (MSW) production of 1.2 kg per day, subject to further increase to 1.5 kg beyond 2025. Waste water and sewage production is estimated at about 260 liters per capita and day, also at increasing rates. Based on these figures, waste - including e.g. MSW, sewage and animal manure - can generally be assumed as a renewable resource with varying organic components and quantity. This paper demonstrates how new and innovative technologies in the field of Waste-to-Green Products can help in various ways not only to reduce costs for waste treatment, reduce the pressure on largely overloaded dump sites, and reduce also the effect of toxic materials at the landfill site and by that i.e. protect the groundwater. Moreover, Waste-to-Green Products can contribute actively to mitigating climate change through fossil fuel substitution and carbon sequestration while at the same time counteracting negative land use effects from other types of renewable energy and feedstock production through substitution. At the same time, the co-production and recycling of fertilizing elements and biochar can substantially counteract soil degradation and improve the soil organic carbon content of different land use types. The overall objective of this paper is to assess the total climate change mitigation potential of MSW, sewage and animal manure for Japan. A techno-economic approach is used to inform the policy discussion on the suitability of this substantial and sustainable mitigation option. We examine the spatial explicit technical mitigation potential from e.g. energy substitution and carbon sequestration through biochar in rural and urban Japan. For this exercise, processed information on respective Japanese waste production, energy demand

  15. Spatially explicit modeling of animal tuberculosis at the wildlife-livestock interface in Ciudad Real province, Spain.

    PubMed

    LaHue, Nathaniel P; Baños, Joaquín Vicente; Acevedo, Pelayo; Gortázar, Christian; Martínez-López, Beatriz

    2016-06-01

    Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) are the most important wildlife reservoirs for animal tuberculosis (TB) caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC), in Mediterranean Spain. These species are considered to play an important role in the transmission and persistence of MTC in cattle in some regions; however the factors contributing to the risk of transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface and the areas at highest risk for such transmission are largely unknown. This study sought to identify geographic areas where wildlife-livestock interactions are most likely to occur and to characterize the environmental and management factors at this interface contributing to persistence, incidence, and occurrence of TB on cattle farms, in one of the provinces with higher TB prevalence in Spain, Ciudad Real. We used spatially explicit, ecological niche models to evaluate the importance of factors such as wildlife demographics and hunting management, land use, climatic, and environmental variables as well as TB status in wildlife for TB breakdown (model 1), persistence (model 2) and new infection (model 3) on cattle farms and to generate high resolution maps of predicted TB occurrence to guide risk-based interventions. Models revealed that land use, particularly open area and woodland, high wild boar TB prevalence, and close proximity to fenced hunting estates were the most important factors associated with TB infection on cattle farms. This is the first time that local TB prevalence in wild boar for individual hunting estates has been significantly associated with TB occurrence on cattle farms at a local scale. Prediction maps identified two areas with high likelihood of TB occurrence in the southwest and northwest of the province where wildlife-livestock interactions and TB occurrence are highly likely and where TB preventative and mitigation strategies (e.g. targeted vaccination, increased biosecurity, etc.) should be prioritized

  16. Spatially explicit modeling of animal tuberculosis at the wildlife-livestock interface in Ciudad Real province, Spain.

    PubMed

    LaHue, Nathaniel P; Baños, Joaquín Vicente; Acevedo, Pelayo; Gortázar, Christian; Martínez-López, Beatriz

    2016-06-01

    Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) are the most important wildlife reservoirs for animal tuberculosis (TB) caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC), in Mediterranean Spain. These species are considered to play an important role in the transmission and persistence of MTC in cattle in some regions; however the factors contributing to the risk of transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface and the areas at highest risk for such transmission are largely unknown. This study sought to identify geographic areas where wildlife-livestock interactions are most likely to occur and to characterize the environmental and management factors at this interface contributing to persistence, incidence, and occurrence of TB on cattle farms, in one of the provinces with higher TB prevalence in Spain, Ciudad Real. We used spatially explicit, ecological niche models to evaluate the importance of factors such as wildlife demographics and hunting management, land use, climatic, and environmental variables as well as TB status in wildlife for TB breakdown (model 1), persistence (model 2) and new infection (model 3) on cattle farms and to generate high resolution maps of predicted TB occurrence to guide risk-based interventions. Models revealed that land use, particularly open area and woodland, high wild boar TB prevalence, and close proximity to fenced hunting estates were the most important factors associated with TB infection on cattle farms. This is the first time that local TB prevalence in wild boar for individual hunting estates has been significantly associated with TB occurrence on cattle farms at a local scale. Prediction maps identified two areas with high likelihood of TB occurrence in the southwest and northwest of the province where wildlife-livestock interactions and TB occurrence are highly likely and where TB preventative and mitigation strategies (e.g. targeted vaccination, increased biosecurity, etc.) should be prioritized

  17. Simulating Human and Environmental Exposure from Hand-Held Knapsack Pesticide Application: Be-WetSpa-Pest, an Integrative, Spatially Explicit Modeling Approach.

    PubMed

    Binder, Claudia R; García-Santos, Glenda; Andreoli, Romano; Diaz, Jaime; Feola, Giuseppe; Wittensoeldner, Moritz; Yang, Jing

    2016-05-25

    This paper presents an integrative and spatially explicit modeling approach for analyzing human and environmental exposure from pesticide application of smallholders in the potato-producing Andean region in Colombia. The modeling approach fulfills the following criteria: (i) it includes environmental and human compartments; (ii) it contains a behavioral decision-making model for estimating the effect of policies on pesticide flows to humans and the environment; (iii) it is spatially explicit; and (iv) it is modular and easily expandable to include additional modules, crops, or technologies. The model was calibrated and validated for the Vereda La Hoya and was used to explore the effect of different policy measures in the region. The model has moderate data requirements and can be adapted relatively easily to other regions in developing countries with similar conditions.

  18. A comparison of three empirically based, spatially explicit predictive models of residential soil Pb concentrations in Baltimore, Maryland, USA: understanding the variability within cities.

    PubMed

    Schwarz, Kirsten; Weathers, Kathleen C; Pickett, Steward T A; Lathrop, Richard G; Pouyat, Richard V; Cadenasso, Mary L

    2013-08-01

    In many older US cities, lead (Pb) contamination of residential soil is widespread; however, contamination is not uniform. Empirically based, spatially explicit models can assist city agencies in addressing this important public health concern by identifying areas predicted to exceed public health targets for soil Pb contamination. Sampling of 61 residential properties in Baltimore City using field portable X-ray fluorescence revealed that 53 % had soil Pb that exceeded the USEPA reportable limit of 400 ppm. These data were used as the input to three different spatially explicit models: a traditional general linear model (GLM), and two machine learning techniques: classification and regression trees (CART) and Random Forests (RF). The GLM revealed that housing age, distance to road, distance to building, and the interactions between variables explained 38 % of the variation in the data. The CART model confirmed the importance of these variables, with housing age, distance to building, and distance to major road networks determining the terminal nodes of the CART model. Using the same three predictor variables, the RF model explained 42 % of the variation in the data. The overall accuracy, which is a measure of agreement between the model and an independent dataset, was 90 % for the GLM, 83 % for the CART model, and 72 % for the RF model. A range of spatially explicit models that can be adapted to changing soil Pb guidelines allows managers to select the most appropriate model based on public health targets.

  19. Spatial Extent of Charge Repulsion Regulates Assembly Pathways for Lysozyme Amyloid Fibrils

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Shannon E.; Miti, Tatiana; Richmond, Tyson; Muschol, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Formation of large protein fibrils with a characteristic cross β-sheet architecture is the key indicator for a wide variety of systemic and neurodegenerative amyloid diseases. Recent experiments have strongly implicated oligomeric intermediates, transiently formed during fibril assembly, as critical contributors to cellular toxicity in amyloid diseases. At the same time, amyloid fibril assembly can proceed along different assembly pathways that might or might not involve such oligomeric intermediates. Elucidating the mechanisms that determine whether fibril formation proceeds along non-oligomeric or oligomeric pathways, therefore, is important not just for understanding amyloid fibril assembly at the molecular level but also for developing new targets for intervening with fibril formation. We have investigated fibril formation by hen egg white lysozyme, an enzyme for which human variants underlie non-neuropathic amyloidosis. Using a combination of static and dynamic light scattering, atomic force microscopy and circular dichroism, we find that amyloidogenic lysozyme monomers switch between three different assembly pathways: from monomeric to oligomeric fibril assembly and, eventually, disordered precipitation as the ionic strength of the solution increases. Fibril assembly only occurred under conditions of net repulsion among the amyloidogenic monomers while net attraction caused precipitation. The transition from monomeric to oligomeric fibril assembly, in turn, occurred as salt-mediated charge screening reduced repulsion among individual charged residues on the same monomer. We suggest a model of amyloid fibril formation in which repulsive charge interactions are a prerequisite for ordered fibril assembly. Furthermore, the spatial extent of non-specific charge screening selects between monomeric and oligomeric assembly pathways by affecting which subset of denatured states can form suitable intermolecular bonds and by altering the energetic and entropic

  20. Assembler: Efficient Discovery of Spatial Co-evolving Patterns in Massive Geo-sensory Data

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Chao; Zheng, Yu; Ma, Xiuli; Han, Jiawei

    2015-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed the wide proliferation of geo-sensory applications wherein a bundle of sensors are deployed at different locations to cooperatively monitor the target condition. Given massive geo-sensory data, we study the problem of mining spatial co-evolving patterns (SCPs), i.e., groups of sensors that are spatially correlated and co-evolve frequently in their readings. SCP mining is of great importance to various real-world applications, yet it is challenging because (1) the truly interesting evolutions are often flooded by numerous trivial fluctuations in the geo-sensory time series; and (2) the pattern search space is extremely large due to the spatiotemporal combinatorial nature of SCP. In this paper, we propose a two-stage method called Assembler. In the first stage, Assembler filters trivial fluctuations using wavelet transform and detects frequent evolutions for individual sensors via a segment-and-group approach. In the second stage, Assembler generates SCPs by assembling the frequent evolutions of individual sensors. Leveraging the spatial constraint, it conceptually organizes all the SCPs into a novel structure called the SCP search tree, which facilitates the effective pruning of the search space to generate SCPs efficiently. Our experiments on both real and synthetic data sets show that Assembler is effective, efficient, and scalable. PMID:26705506

  1. A spatially explicit hydro-ecological modeling framework (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0): Model description and test in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Margolis, Hank; Ju, Weimin; Sonnentag, Oliver; Giasson, Marc-André

    2009-04-01

    SummaryA spatially explicit, process-based hydro-ecological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0, was developed to improve the representation of ecophysiological, hydro-ecological and biogeochemical processes of boreal ecosystems in a tightly coupled manner. Several processes unique to boreal ecosystems were implemented including the sub-surface lateral water fluxes, stratification of vegetation into distinct layers for explicit ecophysiological representation, inclusion of novel spatial upscaling strategies and biogeochemical processes. To account for preferential water fluxes common in humid boreal ecosystems, a novel scheme was introduced based on laboratory analyses. Leaf-scale ecophysiological processes were upscaled to canopy-scale by explicitly considering leaf physiological conditions as affected by light and water stress. The modified model was tested with 2 years of continuous measurements taken at the Eastern Old Black Spruce Site of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network located in a humid boreal watershed in eastern Canada. Comparison of the simulated and measured ET, water-table depth (WTD), volumetric soil water content (VSWC) and gross primary productivity (GPP) revealed that BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0 simulates hydro-ecological processes with reasonable accuracy. The model was able to explain 83% of the ET, 92% of the GPP variability and 72% of the WTD dynamics. The model suggests that in humid ecosystems such as eastern North American boreal watersheds, topographically driven sub-surface baseflow is the main mechanism of soil water partitioning which significantly affects the local-scale hydrological conditions.

  2. Integrative Structure Determination of Protein Assemblies by Satisfaction of Spatial Restraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alber, Frank; Chait, Brian T.; Rout, Michael P.; Sali, Andrej

    To understand the cell, we need to determine the structures of macromolecular assemblies, many of which consist of tens to hundreds of components. A great variety of experimental data can be used to characterize the assemblies at several levels of resolution, from atomic structures to component configurations. To maximize completeness, resolution, accuracy, precision and efficiency of the structure determination, a computational approach is needed that can use spatial information from a variety of experimental methods. We propose such an approach, defined by its three main components: a hierarchical representation of the assembly, a scoring function consisting of spatial restraints derived from experimental data, and an optimization method that generates structures consistent with the data. We illustrate the approach by determining the configuration of the 456 proteins in the nuclear pore complex from Baker's yeast.

  3. Spatially explicit habitat models for 28 fishes from the Upper Mississippi River System (AHAG 2.0)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ickes, Brian S.; Sauer, J.S.; Richards, N.; Bowler, M.; Schlifer, B.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental management actions in the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) typically require pre-project assessments of predicted benefits under a range of project scenarios. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) now requires certified and peer-reviewed models to conduct these assessments. Previously, habitat benefits were estimated for fish communities in the UMRS using the Aquatic Habitat Appraisal Guide (AHAG v.1.0; AHAG from hereon). This spreadsheet-based model used a habitat suitability index (HSI) approach that drew heavily upon Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1980) by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). The HSI approach requires developing species response curves for different environmental variables that seek to broadly represent habitat. The AHAG model uses species-specific response curves assembled from literature values, data from other ecosystems, or best professional judgment. A recent scientific review of the AHAG indicated that the model’s effectiveness is reduced by its dated approach to large river ecosystems, uncertainty regarding its data inputs and rationale for habitat-species response relationships, and lack of field validation (Abt Associates Inc., 2011). The reviewers made two major recommendations: (1) incorporate empirical data from the UMRS into defining the empirical response curves, and (2) conduct post-project biological evaluations to test pre-project benefits estimated by AHAG. Our objective was to address the first recommendation and generate updated response curves for AHAG using data from the Upper Mississippi River Restoration-Environmental Management Program (UMRR-EMP) Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) element. Fish community data have been collected by LTRMP (Gutreuter and others, 1995; Ratcliff and others, in press) for 20 years from 6 study reaches representing 1,930 kilometers of river and >140 species of fish. We modeled a subset of these data (28 different

  4. Modeling Behavior by Coastal River Otter (Lontra Canadensis) in Response to Prey Availability in Prince William Sound, Alaska: A Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Approach.

    PubMed

    Albeke, Shannon E; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Ben-David, Merav

    2015-01-01

    Effects of climate change on animal behavior and cascading ecosystem responses are rarely evaluated. In coastal Alaska, social river otters (Lontra Canadensis), largely males, cooperatively forage on schooling fish and use latrine sites to communicate group associations and dominance. Conversely, solitary otters, mainly females, feed on intertidal-demersal fish and display mutual avoidance via scent marking. This behavioral variability creates "hotspots" of nutrient deposition and affects plant productivity and diversity on the terrestrial landscape. Because the abundance of schooling pelagic fish is predicted to decline with climate change, we developed a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM) of otter behavior and tested six scenarios based on potential shifts to distribution patterns of schooling fish. Emergent patterns from the IBM closely mimicked observed otter behavior and landscape use in the absence of explicit rules of intraspecific attraction or repulsion. Model results were most sensitive to rules regarding spatial memory and activity state following an encounter with a fish school. With declining availability of schooling fish, the number of social groups and the time simulated otters spent in the company of conspecifics declined. Concurrently, model results suggested an elevation of defecation rate, a 25% increase in nitrogen transport to the terrestrial landscape, and significant changes to the spatial distribution of "hotspots" with declines in schooling fish availability. However, reductions in availability of schooling fish could lead to declines in otter density over time.

  5. Modeling Behavior by Coastal River Otter (Lontra Canadensis) in Response to Prey Availability in Prince William Sound, Alaska: A Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Approach.

    PubMed

    Albeke, Shannon E; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Ben-David, Merav

    2015-01-01

    Effects of climate change on animal behavior and cascading ecosystem responses are rarely evaluated. In coastal Alaska, social river otters (Lontra Canadensis), largely males, cooperatively forage on schooling fish and use latrine sites to communicate group associations and dominance. Conversely, solitary otters, mainly females, feed on intertidal-demersal fish and display mutual avoidance via scent marking. This behavioral variability creates "hotspots" of nutrient deposition and affects plant productivity and diversity on the terrestrial landscape. Because the abundance of schooling pelagic fish is predicted to decline with climate change, we developed a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM) of otter behavior and tested six scenarios based on potential shifts to distribution patterns of schooling fish. Emergent patterns from the IBM closely mimicked observed otter behavior and landscape use in the absence of explicit rules of intraspecific attraction or repulsion. Model results were most sensitive to rules regarding spatial memory and activity state following an encounter with a fish school. With declining availability of schooling fish, the number of social groups and the time simulated otters spent in the company of conspecifics declined. Concurrently, model results suggested an elevation of defecation rate, a 25% increase in nitrogen transport to the terrestrial landscape, and significant changes to the spatial distribution of "hotspots" with declines in schooling fish availability. However, reductions in availability of schooling fish could lead to declines in otter density over time. PMID:26061497

  6. Modeling Behavior by Coastal River Otter (Lontra Canadensis) in Response to Prey Availability in Prince William Sound, Alaska: A Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Albeke, Shannon E.; Nibbelink, Nathan P.; Ben-David, Merav

    2015-01-01

    Effects of climate change on animal behavior and cascading ecosystem responses are rarely evaluated. In coastal Alaska, social river otters (Lontra Canadensis), largely males, cooperatively forage on schooling fish and use latrine sites to communicate group associations and dominance. Conversely, solitary otters, mainly females, feed on intertidal-demersal fish and display mutual avoidance via scent marking. This behavioral variability creates “hotspots” of nutrient deposition and affects plant productivity and diversity on the terrestrial landscape. Because the abundance of schooling pelagic fish is predicted to decline with climate change, we developed a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM) of otter behavior and tested six scenarios based on potential shifts to distribution patterns of schooling fish. Emergent patterns from the IBM closely mimicked observed otter behavior and landscape use in the absence of explicit rules of intraspecific attraction or repulsion. Model results were most sensitive to rules regarding spatial memory and activity state following an encounter with a fish school. With declining availability of schooling fish, the number of social groups and the time simulated otters spent in the company of conspecifics declined. Concurrently, model results suggested an elevation of defecation rate, a 25% increase in nitrogen transport to the terrestrial landscape, and significant changes to the spatial distribution of “hotspots” with declines in schooling fish availability. However, reductions in availability of schooling fish could lead to declines in otter density over time. PMID:26061497

  7. Spatially explicit assessment of estuarine fish after Deepwater Horizon oil spill: trade-off in complexity and parsimony

    EPA Science Inventory

    Evaluating long- term contaminant effects on wildlife populations depends on spatial information about habitat quality, heterogeneity in contaminant exposure, and sensitivities and distributions of species integrated into a systems modeling approach. Rarely is this information re...

  8. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: a new seasonal, spatially explicit, global model

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background/Question/Methods Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in some depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls ...

  9. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new seasonal, spatially explicit, global model - 2012

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background/Question/Methods Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in some depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and zone and ...

  10. REMOTE SENSING AND SPATIALLY EXPLICIT LANDSCAPE-BASED NITROGEN MODELING METHODS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN, NC

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of this research was to model and map the spatial patterns of excess nitrogen (N) sources across the landscape within the Neuse River Basin (NRB) of North
    Carolina. The process included an initial land cover characterization effort to map landscape "patches" at ...

  11. A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

    PubMed

    Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J B

    2013-01-01

    Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.

  12. A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.

    2013-01-01

    Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security. PMID:23460901

  13. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new, seasonal, spatially explicit, global model

    EPA Science Inventory

    Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls of coastal DIN delivery across larg...

  14. Drought tolerance as a driver of tropical forest assembly: resolving spatial signatures for multiple processes.

    PubMed

    Bartlett, M K; Zhang, Y; Yang, J; Kreidler, N; Sun, S w; Lin, L; Hu, Y H; Cao, K F; Sack, L

    2016-02-01

    Spatial patterns in trait variation reflect underlying community assembly processes, allowing us to test hypotheses about their trait and environmental drivers by identifying the strongest correlates of characteristic spatial patterns. For 43 evergreen tree species (> 1 cm dbh) in a 20-ha seasonal tropical rainforest plot in Xishuangbanna, China, we compared the ability of drought-tolerance traits, other physiological traits, and commonly measured functional traits to predict the spatial patterns expected from the assembly processes of habitat associations, niche-overlap-based competition, and hierarchical competition. We distinguished the neighborhood-scale (0-20 m) patterns expected from competition from larger-scale habitat associations with a wavelet method. Species' drought tolerance and habitat variables related to soil water supply were strong drivers of habitat associations, and drought tolerance showed a significant spatial signal for influencing competition. Overall, the traits most strongly associated with habitat, as quantified using multivariate models, were leaf density, leaf turgor loss point (π(tlp); also known as the leaf wilting point), and stem hydraulic conductivity (r2 range for the best fit models = 0.27-0.36). At neighborhood scales, species spatial associations were positively correlated with similarity in π(tlp), consistent with predictions for hierarchical competition. Although the correlation between π(tlp) and interspecific spatial associations was weak (r2 < 0.01), this showed a persistent influence of drought tolerance on neighborhood interactions and community assembly. Quantifying the full impact of traits on competitive interactions in forests may require incorporating plasticity among individuals within species, especially among specific life stages, and moving beyond individual traits to integrate the impact of multiple traits on whole-plant performance and resource demand. PMID:27145624

  15. Drought tolerance as a driver of tropical forest assembly: resolving spatial signatures for multiple processes.

    PubMed

    Bartlett, M K; Zhang, Y; Yang, J; Kreidler, N; Sun, S w; Lin, L; Hu, Y H; Cao, K F; Sack, L

    2016-02-01

    Spatial patterns in trait variation reflect underlying community assembly processes, allowing us to test hypotheses about their trait and environmental drivers by identifying the strongest correlates of characteristic spatial patterns. For 43 evergreen tree species (> 1 cm dbh) in a 20-ha seasonal tropical rainforest plot in Xishuangbanna, China, we compared the ability of drought-tolerance traits, other physiological traits, and commonly measured functional traits to predict the spatial patterns expected from the assembly processes of habitat associations, niche-overlap-based competition, and hierarchical competition. We distinguished the neighborhood-scale (0-20 m) patterns expected from competition from larger-scale habitat associations with a wavelet method. Species' drought tolerance and habitat variables related to soil water supply were strong drivers of habitat associations, and drought tolerance showed a significant spatial signal for influencing competition. Overall, the traits most strongly associated with habitat, as quantified using multivariate models, were leaf density, leaf turgor loss point (π(tlp); also known as the leaf wilting point), and stem hydraulic conductivity (r2 range for the best fit models = 0.27-0.36). At neighborhood scales, species spatial associations were positively correlated with similarity in π(tlp), consistent with predictions for hierarchical competition. Although the correlation between π(tlp) and interspecific spatial associations was weak (r2 < 0.01), this showed a persistent influence of drought tolerance on neighborhood interactions and community assembly. Quantifying the full impact of traits on competitive interactions in forests may require incorporating plasticity among individuals within species, especially among specific life stages, and moving beyond individual traits to integrate the impact of multiple traits on whole-plant performance and resource demand.

  16. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

    PubMed

    Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

    2015-11-01

    Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

  17. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

    PubMed Central

    Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

    2015-01-01

    Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

  18. Reconstructing satellite images to quantify spatially explicit land surface change caused by fires and succession: A demonstration in the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Shengli; Jin, Suming; Dahal, Devendra; Chen, Xuexia; Young, Claudia; Liu, Heping; Liu, Shuguang

    2013-05-01

    Land surface change caused by fires and succession is confounded by many site-specific factors and requires further study. The objective of this study was to reveal the spatially explicit land surface change by minimizing the confounding factors of weather variability, seasonal offset, topography, land cover, and drainage. In a pilot study of the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska, we retrieved Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), albedo, and land surface temperature (LST) from a postfire Landsat image acquired on August 5th, 2004. With a Landsat reference image acquired on June 26th, 1986, we reconstructed NDVI, albedo, and LST of 1987-2004 fire scars for August 5th, 2004, assuming that these fires had not occurred. The difference between actual postfire and assuming-no-fire scenarios depicted the fires and succession impact. Our results demonstrated the following: (1) NDVI showed an immediate decrease after burning but gradually recovered to prefire levels in the following years, in which burn severity might play an important role during this process; (2) Albedo showed an immediate decrease after burning but then recovered and became higher than prefire levels; and (3) Most fires caused surface warming, but cooler surfaces did exist; time-since-fire affected the prefire and postfire LST difference but no absolute trend could be found. Our approach provided spatially explicit land surface change rather than average condition, enabling a better understanding of fires and succession impact on ecological consequences at the pixel level.

  19. Reconciling nature conservation and traditional farming practices: a spatially explicit framework to assess the extent of High Nature Value farmlands in the European countryside.

    PubMed

    Lomba, Angela; Alves, Paulo; Jongman, Rob H G; McCracken, David I

    2015-03-01

    Agriculture constitutes a dominant land cover worldwide, and rural landscapes under extensive farming practices acknowledged due to high biodiversity levels. The High Nature Value farmland (HNVf) concept has been highlighted in the EU environmental and rural policies due to their inherent potential to help characterize and direct financial support to European landscapes where high nature and/or conservation value is dependent on the continuation of specific low-intensity farming systems. Assessing the extent of HNV farmland by necessity relies on the availability of both ecological and farming systems' data, and difficulties associated with making such assessments have been widely described across Europe. A spatially explicit framework of data collection, building out from local administrative units, has recently been suggested as a means of addressing such difficulties. This manuscript tests the relevance of the proposed approach, describes the spatially explicit framework in a case study area in northern Portugal, and discusses the potential of the approach to help better inform the implementation of conservation and rural development policies. Synthesis and applications: The potential of a novel approach (combining land use/cover, farming and environmental data) to provide more accurate and efficient mapping and monitoring of HNV farmlands is tested at the local level in northern Portugal. The approach is considered to constitute a step forward toward a more precise targeting of landscapes for agri-environment schemes, as it allowed a more accurate discrimination of areas within the case study landscape that have a higher value for nature conservation.

  20. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

    PubMed

    Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

    2015-11-09

    Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

  1. Imaging Self-assembly Dependent Spatial Distribution of Small Molecules in Cellular Environment

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Yuan; Kuang, Yi; Du, Xuewen; Zhou, Jie; Chandran, Preethi; Horkay, Ferenc; Xu, Bing

    2014-01-01

    Self-assembly of small molecules, as a more common phenomenon than one previously thought, can be either beneficial or detrimental to cells. Despite its profound biological implications, how the self-assembly of small molecules behave in cellular environment is largely unknown and barely explored. This work studies four fluorescent molecules that consist of the same peptidic backbone (e.g., Phe-Phe-Lys) and enzyme trigger (e.g., a phosphotyrosine residue), but bear different fluorophores on the side chain of the lysine residue of the peptidic motif. These molecules, however, exhibit different ability of self-assembly before and after enzymatic transformation (e.g., dephosphorylation). Fluorescent imaging reveals that self-assembly directly affects the distribution of these small molecules in cellular environment. Moreover, cell viability tests suggest that the states and the location of the molecular assemblies in the cellular environment control the phenotypes of the cells. For example, the molecular nanofibers of one of the small molecules apparently stabilize actin filaments and alleviate the insult of an F-actin toxin (e.g., latrunculin A). Combining fluorescent imaging and enzyme-instructed self-assembly of small peptidic molecules, this work not only demonstrates that self-assembly as a key factor for dictating the spatial distribution of small molecules in cellular environment. In addition, it illustrates a useful approach, based on enzyme-instructed self-assembly of small molecules, to modulate spatiotemporal profiles of small molecules in cellular environment, which allows the use of the emergent properties of small molecules to control the fate of cells. PMID:24266765

  2. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

    2014-01-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  3. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    PubMed

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  4. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    PubMed

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

  5. Temporal and spatial constraints on community assembly during microbial colonization of wood in seawater.

    PubMed

    Kalenitchenko, Dimitri; Fagervold, Sonja K; Pruski, Audrey M; Vétion, Gilles; Yücel, Mustafa; Le Bris, Nadine; Galand, Pierre E

    2015-12-01

    Wood falls on the ocean floor form chemosynthetic ecosystems that remain poorly studied compared with features such as hydrothermal vents or whale falls. In particular, the microbes forming the base of this unique ecosystem are not well characterized and the ecology of communities is not known. Here we use wood as a model to study microorganisms that establish and maintain a chemosynthetic ecosystem. We conducted both aquaria and in situ deep-sea experiments to test how different environmental constraints structure the assembly of bacterial, archaeal and fungal communities. We also measured changes in wood lipid concentrations and monitored sulfide production as a way to detect potential microbial activity. We show that wood falls are dynamic ecosystems with high spatial and temporal community turnover, and that the patterns of microbial colonization change depending on the scale of observation. The most illustrative example was the difference observed between pine and oak wood community dynamics. In pine, communities changed spatially, with strong differences in community composition between wood microhabitats, whereas in oak, communities changed more significantly with time of incubation. Changes in community assembly were reflected by changes in phylogenetic diversity that could be interpreted as shifts between assemblies ruled by species sorting to assemblies structured by competitive exclusion. These ecological interactions followed the dynamics of the potential microbial metabolisms accompanying wood degradation in the sea. Our work showed that wood is a good model for creating and manipulating chemosynthetic ecosystems in the laboratory, and attracting not only typical chemosynthetic microbes but also emblematic macrofaunal species.

  6. Magnetophoretic Assembly of Anisotropic Colloids for Spatial Control of Reinforcement in Composites.

    PubMed

    Demirörs, Ahmet Faik

    2016-09-15

    Anisotropic particles have attracted interest for decades and have been studied for many aspects, ranging from fundamental phase behavior to photonic properties. In addition, magnetic fields have been heavily used for external manipulation of colloidal particles for separation, for assembly, and even for photonic applications. Here we use magnetic field microgradients established in a paramagnetic fluid to act as templates for the assembly of both nonmagnetic and magnetic anisotropic colloidal particles. We embed the assembled structure in a polymer matrix in order to obtain a composite where the spatial distribution of the reinforcing particles are preprogrammed. By using a mixture of paramagnetic and diamagnetic particles with different mechanical strengths, a periodical modulation of reinforcement by the variation of the particle type at different locations is achieved. Furthermore, we introduce a similar method for assembly of paramagnetic particles, where we use magnetic gradients of permanent magnet arrays to obtain field gradients and modulate spatially the particle concentration, and thus reinforcement, through the macroscopic samples in three dimensions. PMID:27545970

  7. Spatially explicit modeling of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat in Nevada and northeastern California: a decision-support tool for management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Overton, Cory T.; Sanchez-Chopitea, Erika; Kroger, Travis; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Howe, Kristy; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

    2014-01-01

    Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations are declining throughout the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem, including millions of acres of potential habitat across the West. Habitat maps derived from empirical data are needed given impending listing decisions that will affect both sage-grouse population dynamics and human land-use restrictions. This report presents the process for developing spatially explicit maps describing relative habitat suitability for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California. Maps depicting habitat suitability indices (HSI) values were generated based on model-averaged resource selection functions informed by more than 31,000 independent telemetry locations from more than 1,500 radio-marked sage-grouse across 12 project areas in Nevada and northeastern California collected during a 15-year period (1998–2013). Modeled habitat covariates included land cover composition, water resources, habitat configuration, elevation, and topography, each at multiple spatial scales that were relevant to empirically observed sage-grouse movement patterns. We then present an example of how the HSI can be delineated into categories. Specifically, we demonstrate that the deviation from the mean can be used to classify habitat suitability into three categories of habitat quality (high, moderate, and low) and one non-habitat category. The classification resulted in an agreement of 93–97 percent for habitat versus non-habitat across a suite of independent validation datasets. Lastly, we provide an example of how space use models can be integrated with habitat models to help inform conservation planning. In this example, we combined probabilistic breeding density with a non-linear probability of occurrence relative to distance to nearest lek (traditional breeding ground) using count data to calculate a composite space use index (SUI). The SUI was then classified into two categories of use

  8. Spatially explicit, nano-mechanical models of the muscle half-sarcomere: Implications for biomechanical tuning in atrophy and fatigue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kataoka, Aya; Tanner, Bertrand C. W.; Macpherson, J. Michael; Xu, Xiangrong; Wang, Qi; Regnier, Michael; Daniel, Thomas L.; Chase, P. Bryant

    2007-01-01

    Astronaut biomechanical performance depends on a wide variety of factors. Results from computational modelling suggest that muscle function—a key component of performance—could be modulated by compliance of the contractile filaments in muscle, especially when force is low such as transient Ca activation in a twitch, reduced activation in muscle fatigue encountered during EVA, or perhaps atrophy during prolonged space flight. We used Monte-Carlo models to investigate the hypotheses that myofilament compliance influences muscle function during a twitch, and also modulates the effects of cooperative interactions between contractile proteins on force generation. Peak twitch force and the kinetics of force decay were both decreased, while tension cost was increased, when myofilament compliance was increased relative to physiological values. Both the apparent Ca sensitivity and cooperativity of activation of steady-state isometric force were altered by myofilament compliance even when there were no explicit interactions included between binding sites. The effects of cooperative interactions between adjacent regulatory units were found to be greater than either the effect of myofilament compliance on apparent cooperativity of activation or that due to myosin cross-bridge-induced cooperativity. These results indicate that muscle function may be "tuned" at the molecular level, particularly under conditions of reduced Ca activation.

  9. SMART: A Spatially Explicit Bio-Economic Model for Assessing and Managing Demersal Fisheries, with an Application to Italian Trawlers in the Strait of Sicily

    PubMed Central

    Russo, Tommaso; Parisi, Antonio; Garofalo, Germana; Gristina, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano; Fiorentino, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries), a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1) spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2) an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3) a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in the Strait of

  10. SMART: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for assessing and managing demersal fisheries, with an application to italian trawlers in the strait of sicily.

    PubMed

    Russo, Tommaso; Parisi, Antonio; Garofalo, Germana; Gristina, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano; Fiorentino, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries), a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1) spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2) an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3) a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in the Strait of

  11. Agro-hydrology and multi-temporal high-resolution remote sensing: toward an explicit spatial processes calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrant, S.; Gascoin, S.; Veloso, A.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Claverie, M.; Rivalland, V.; Dedieu, G.; Demarez, V.; Ceschia, E.; Probst, J.-L.; Durand, P.; Bustillo, V.

    2014-12-01

    The growing availability of high-resolution satellite image series offers new opportunities in agro-hydrological research and modeling. We investigated the possibilities offered for improving crop-growth dynamic simulation with the distributed agro-hydrological model: topography-based nitrogen transfer and transformation (TNT2). We used a leaf area index (LAI) map series derived from 105 Formosat-2 (F2) images covering the period 2006-2010. The TNT2 model (Beaujouan et al., 2002), calibrated against discharge and in-stream nitrate fluxes for the period 1985-2001, was tested on the 2005-2010 data set (climate, land use, agricultural practices, and discharge and nitrate fluxes at the outlet). Data from the first year (2005) were used to initialize the hydrological model. A priori agricultural practices obtained from an extensive field survey, such as seeding date, crop cultivar, and amount of fertilizer, were used as input variables. Continuous values of LAI as a function of cumulative daily temperature were obtained at the crop-field level by fitting a double logistic equation against discrete satellite-derived LAI. Model predictions of LAI dynamics using the a priori input parameters displayed temporal shifts from those observed LAI profiles that are irregularly distributed in space (between field crops) and time (between years). By resetting the seeding date at the crop-field level, we have developed an optimization method designed to efficiently minimize this temporal shift and better fit the crop growth against both the spatial observations and crop production. This optimization of simulated LAI has a negligible impact on water budgets at the catchment scale (1 mm yr-1 on average) but a noticeable impact on in-stream nitrogen fluxes (around 12%), which is of interest when considering nitrate stream contamination issues and the objectives of TNT2 modeling. This study demonstrates the potential contribution of the forthcoming high spatial and temporal resolution

  12. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. PMID:27343434

  13. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

  14. YALINA-booster subcritical assembly pulsed-neutron experiments : data processing and spatial corrections.

    SciTech Connect

    Cao, Y.; Gohar, Y.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2010-10-11

    The YALINA-Booster experiments and analyses are part of the collaboration between Argonne National Laboratory of USA and the Joint Institute for Power & Nuclear Research - SOSNY of Belarus for studying the physics of accelerator driven systems for nuclear energy applications using low enriched uranium. The YALINA-Booster subcritical assembly is utilized for studying the kinetics of accelerator driven systems with its highly intensive D-T or D-D pulsed neutron source. In particular, the pulsed neutron methods are used to determine the reactivity of the subcritical system. This report examines the pulsed-neutron experiments performed in the YALINA-Booster facility with different configurations for the subcritical assembly. The 1141 configuration with 90% U-235 fuel and the 1185 configuration with 36% or 21% U-235 fuel are examined. The Sjoestrand area-ratio method is utilized to determine the reactivities of the different configurations. The linear regression method is applied to obtain the prompt neutron decay constants from the pulsed-neutron experimental data. The reactivity values obtained from the experimental data are shown to be dependent on the detector locations inside the subcritical assembly and the types of detector used for the measurements. In this report, Bell's spatial correction factors are calculated based on a Monte Carlo model to remove the detector dependences. The large differences between the reactivity values given by the detectors in the fast neutron zone of the YALINA-Booster are reduced after applying the spatial corrections. In addition, the estimated reactivity values after the spatial corrections are much less spatially dependent.

  15. Evaluating effects of Everglades restoration on American crocodile populations in south Florida using a spatially-explicit, stage-based population model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Green, Timothy W.; Slone, Daniel H.; Swain, Eric D.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Lohmann, Melinda; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.

    2014-01-01

    The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

  16. Spatially explicit power analyses for occupancy-based monitoring of wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Martha M; Ivan, Jacob S; Schwartz, Michael K

    2014-02-01

    Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy-based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy-based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per-visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species. PMID:24001256

  17. A spatially-explicit data driven approach to assess the effect of agricultural land occupation on species groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elshout, P.; van Zelm, R.; Karuppiah, R.; Laurenzi, I.; Huijbregts, M.

    2013-12-01

    Change of vegetation cover and increased land use intensity can directly affect the natural habitat and the wildlife it houses. The actual impact of agricultural land use is region specific as crops are grown under various climatic conditions and ways of cultivation and refining. Furthermore, growing a specific crop in a tropical region may require clearance of rainforest while the same crop may replace natural grasslands in temperate regions. Within life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), methods to address impacts of land use on a global scale are still in need of development. We aim to extend existing methods to improve the robustness of LCIA by allowing spatial differentiation of agricultural land use impacts. The goal of this study is to develop characterization factors for the direct impact of land use on biodiversity, which results from the replacement of natural habitat with farmland. The characterization factor expresses the change in species richness under crop cultivation compared to the species richness in the natural situation over a certain area. A second goal was to identify the differences in impacts caused by cultivation of different crop types, sensitivity of different taxonomic groups, and differences in natural land cover. Empirical data on species richness were collected from literature for both natural reference situations and agricultural land use situations. Reference situations were selected on an ecoregion or biome basis. We calculated characterization factors for four crop groups (oil palm, low crops, cereals, and perennial grasses), four species groups (arthropods, birds, mammals, vascular plants), and six biomes.

  18. Estimating Brownian motion dispersal rate, longevity and population density from spatially explicit mark-recapture data on tropical butterflies.

    PubMed

    Tufto, Jarle; Lande, Russell; Ringsby, Thor-Harald; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Walla, Thomas R; DeVries, Philip J

    2012-07-01

    1. We develop a Bayesian method for analysing mark-recapture data in continuous habitat using a model in which individuals movement paths are Brownian motions, life spans are exponentially distributed and capture events occur at given instants in time if individuals are within a certain attractive distance of the traps. 2. The joint posterior distribution of the dispersal rate, longevity, trap attraction distances and a number of latent variables representing the unobserved movement paths and time of death of all individuals is computed using Gibbs sampling. 3. An estimate of absolute local population density is obtained simply by dividing the Poisson counts of individuals captured at given points in time by the estimated total attraction area of all traps. Our approach for estimating population density in continuous habitat avoids the need to define an arbitrary effective trapping area that characterized previous mark-recapture methods in continuous habitat. 4. We applied our method to estimate spatial demography parameters in nine species of neotropical butterflies. Path analysis of interspecific variation in demographic parameters and mean wing length revealed a simple network of strong causation. Larger wing length increases dispersal rate, which in turn increases trap attraction distance. However, higher dispersal rate also decreases longevity, thus explaining the surprising observation of a negative correlation between wing length and longevity.

  19. Spatially explicit power analyses for occupancy-based monitoring of wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Martha M; Ivan, Jacob S; Schwartz, Michael K

    2014-02-01

    Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy-based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy-based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per-visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species.

  20. Anticipating Knowledge to Inform Species Management: Predicting Spatially Explicit Habitat Suitability of a Colonial Vulture Spreading Its Range

    PubMed Central

    Mateo-Tomás, Patricia; Olea, Pedro P.

    2010-01-01

    Background The knowledge of both potential distribution and habitat suitability is fundamental in spreading species to inform in advance management and conservation planning. After a severe decline in the past decades, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) is now spreading its breeding range towards the northwest in Spain and Europe. Because of its key ecological function, anticipated spatial knowledge is required to inform appropriately both vulture and ecosystem management. Methodology/Findings Here we used maximum entropy (Maxent) models to determine the habitat suitability of potential and current breeding distribution of the griffon vulture using presence-only data (N = 124 colonies) in north-western Spain. The most relevant ecological factors shaping this habitat suitability were also identified. The resulting model had a high predictive performance and was able to predict species' historical distribution. 7.5% (∼1,850 km2) of the study area resulted to be suitable breeding habitat, most of which (∼70%) is already occupied by the species. Cliff availability and livestock density, especially of sheep and goats, around 10 km of the colonies were the fundamental factors determining breeding habitat suitability for this species. Conclusions/Significance Griffon vultures could still spread 50–60 km towards the west, increasing their breeding range in 1,782 km2. According to our results, 7.22% of the area suitable for griffon vulture will be affected by wind farms, so our results could help to better plan wind farm locations. The approach here developed could be useful to inform management of reintroductions and recovery programmes currently being implemented for both the griffon vulture and other threatened vulture species. PMID:20811501

  1. Spatially Explicit Analysis of Genome-Wide SNPs Detects Subtle Population Structure in a Mobile Marine Mammal, the Harbor Porpoise

    PubMed Central

    Lah, Ljerka; Trense, Daronja; Benke, Harald; Berggren, Per; Gunnlaugsson, Þorvaldur; Lockyer, Christina; Öztürk, Ayaka; Öztürk, Bayram; Pawliczka, Iwona; Roos, Anna; Siebert, Ursula; Víkingsson, Gísli; Tiedemann, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    The population structure of the highly mobile marine mammal, the harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), in the Atlantic shelf waters follows a pattern of significant isolation-by-distance. The population structure of harbor porpoises from the Baltic Sea, which is connected with the North Sea through a series of basins separated by shallow underwater ridges, however, is more complex. Here, we investigated the population differentiation of harbor porpoises in European Seas with a special focus on the Baltic Sea and adjacent waters, using a population genomics approach. We used 2872 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), derived from double digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq), as well as 13 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial haplotypes for the same set of individuals. Spatial principal components analysis (sPCA), and Bayesian clustering on a subset of SNPs suggest three main groupings at the level of all studied regions: the Black Sea, the North Atlantic, and the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, we observed a distinct separation of the North Sea harbor porpoises from the Baltic Sea populations, and identified splits between porpoise populations within the Baltic Sea. We observed a notable distinction between the Belt Sea and the Inner Baltic Sea sub-regions. Improved delineation of harbor porpoise population assignments for the Baltic based on genomic evidence is important for conservation management of this endangered cetacean in threatened habitats, particularly in the Baltic Sea proper. In addition, we show that SNPs outperform microsatellite markers and demonstrate the utility of RAD-tags from a relatively small, opportunistically sampled cetacean sample set for population diversity and divergence analysis. PMID:27783621

  2. Modeling Agricultural Watersheds with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Calibration and Validation with a Novel Procedure for Spatially Explicit HRUs.

    PubMed

    Teshager, Awoke Dagnew; Gassman, Philip W; Secchi, Silvia; Schoof, Justin T; Misgna, Girmaye

    2016-04-01

    Applications of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the model. In a given standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover, soil, and slope, but located at different places of a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, crop rotation, and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002-2010 and Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000-2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly, and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner.

  3. Modeling Agricultural Watersheds with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Calibration and Validation with a Novel Procedure for Spatially Explicit HRUs.

    PubMed

    Teshager, Awoke Dagnew; Gassman, Philip W; Secchi, Silvia; Schoof, Justin T; Misgna, Girmaye

    2016-04-01

    Applications of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the model. In a given standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover, soil, and slope, but located at different places of a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, crop rotation, and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002-2010 and Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000-2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly, and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner. PMID:26616430

  4. Towards more spatially explicit assessments of virtual water flows: linking local water use and scarcity to global demand of Brazilian farming commodities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flach, Rafaela; Ran, Ylva; Godar, Javier; Karlberg, Louise; Suavet, Clement

    2016-07-01

    Global consumption of farming commodities is an important driver of water demand in regions of production. This is the case in Brazil, which has emerged as one of the main producers of globally traded farming commodities. Traditional methods to assess environmental implications of this demand rely on international trade material flows at country resolution; we argue for the need of finer scales that capture spatial heterogeneity in environmental variables in the regions of production, and that account for differential sourcing within the borders of a country of production. To illustrate this, we obtain virtual water flows from Brazilian municipalities to countries of consumption, by allocating high-resolution water footprints of sugarcane and soy production to spatially-explicit material trade flows. We found that this approach results in differences of virtual water use estimations of over 20% when compared to approaches that disregard spatial heterogeneity in sourcing patterns, for three of the main consumers of the analysed crops. This discrepancy against methods using national resolution in trade flows is determined by national heterogeneity in water resources, and differential sourcing. To illustrate the practical implications of this approach, we relate virtual water flows to water stress, identifying where global demand for water coincides with high levels of water stress. For instance, the virtual water flows for Brazilian sugarcane sourced by China were disproportionally less associated to areas with higher water stress when compared to those of the EU, due to EU’s much higher reliance on sugarcane from water scarce areas in Northeast Brazil. Our findings indicate that the policy relevance of current assessments of virtual water flows that rely on trade data aggregated at the national level may be hampered, as they do not capture the spatial heterogeneity in water resources, water use and water management options.

  5. Modeling Agricultural Watersheds with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Calibration and Validation with a Novel Procedure for Spatially Explicit HRUs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teshager, Awoke Dagnew; Gassman, Philip W.; Secchi, Silvia; Schoof, Justin T.; Misgna, Girmaye

    2016-04-01

    Applications of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the model. In a given standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover, soil, and slope, but located at different places of a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, crop rotation, and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002-2010 and Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000-2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly, and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner.

  6. Correct self-assembling of spatial frequencies in super-resolution synthetic aperture digital holography.

    PubMed

    Paturzo, Melania; Ferraro, Pietro

    2009-12-01

    Synthetic aperture enlargement is obtained, in lensless digital holography, by introducing a diffraction grating between the object and the CCD camera with the aim of getting super-resolution. We demonstrate here that the spatial frequencies are naturally self-assembled in the reconstructed image plane when the NA is increased synthetically at its maximum extent of three times. By this approach it possible to avoid the use of the grating transmission formula in the numerical reconstruction process, thus reducing significantly the noise in the final super-resolved image. Demonstrations are reported in 1D and 2D with an optical target and a biological sample, respectively.

  7. An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

    2015-04-01

    Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make predictions about the quantity and location of future and past change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling procedure must be performed in different environments because existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

  8. Evaluation of the Event Driven Phenology Model Coupled with the VegET Evapotranspiration Model Through Comparisons with Reference Datasets in a Spatially Explicit Manner

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kovalskyy, V.; Henebry, G. M.; Adusei, B.; Hansen, M.; Roy, D. P.; Senay, G.; Mocko, D. M.

    2011-01-01

    A new model coupling scheme with remote sensing data assimilation was developed for estimation of daily actual evapotranspiration (ET). The scheme represents a mix of the VegET, a physically based model to estimate ET from a water balance, and an event driven phenology model (EDPM), where the EDPM is an empirically derived crop specific model capable of producing seasonal trajectories of canopy attributes. In this experiment, the scheme was deployed in a spatially explicit manner within the croplands of the Northern Great Plains. The evaluation was carried out using 2007-2009 land surface forcing data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and crop maps derived from remotely sensed data of NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We compared the canopy parameters produced by the phenology model with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data derived from the MODIS nadir bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) product. The expectations of the EDPM performance in prognostic mode were met, producing determination coefficient (r2) of 0.8 +/-.0.15. Model estimates of NDVI yielded root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.1 +/-.0.035 for the entire study area. Retrospective correction of canopy dynamics with MODIS NDVI brought the errors down to just below 10% of observed data range. The ET estimates produced by the coupled scheme were compared with ones from the MODIS land product suite. The expected r2=0.7 +/-.15 and RMSE = 11.2 +/-.4 mm per 8 days were met and even exceeded by the coupling scheme0 functioning in both prognostic and retrospective modes. Minor setbacks of the EDPM and VegET performance (r2 about 0.5 and additional 30 % of RMSR) were found on the peripheries of the study area and attributed to the insufficient EDPM training and to spatially varying accuracy of crop maps. Overall the experiment provided sufficient evidence of soundness and robustness of the EDPM and

  9. DNA as a powerful tool for morphology control, spatial positioning, and dynamic assembly of nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Tan, Li Huey; Xing, Hang; Lu, Yi

    2014-06-17

    CONSPECTUS: Several properties of nanomaterials, such as morphologies (e.g., shapes and surface structures) and distance dependent properties (e.g., plasmonic and quantum confinement effects), make nanomaterials uniquely qualified as potential choices for future applications from catalysis to biomedicine. To realize the full potential of these nanomaterials, it is important to demonstrate fine control of the morphology of individual nanoparticles, as well as precise spatial control of the position, orientation, and distances between multiple nanoparticles. In addition, dynamic control of nanomaterial assembly in response to multiple stimuli, with minimal or no error, and the reversibility of the assemblies are also required. In this Account, we summarize recent progress of using DNA as a powerful programmable tool to realize the above goals. First, inspired by the discovery of genetic codes in biology, we have discovered DNA sequence combinations to control different morphologies of nanoparticles during their growth process and have shown that these effects are synergistic or competitive, depending on the sequence combination. The DNA, which guides the growth of the nanomaterial, is stable and retains its biorecognition ability. Second, by taking advantage of different reactivities of phosphorothioate and phosphodiester backbone, we have placed phosphorothioate at selective positions on different DNA nanostructures including DNA tetrahedrons. Bifunctional linkers have been used to conjugate phosphorothioate on one end and bind nanoparticles or proteins on the other end. In doing so, precise control of distances between two or more nanoparticles or proteins with nanometer resolution can be achieved. Furthermore, by developing facile methods to functionalize two hemispheres of Janus nanoparticles with two different DNA sequences regioselectively, we have demonstrated directional control of nanomaterial assembly, where DNA strands with specific hybridization serve as

  10. DNA as a Powerful Tool for Morphology Control, Spatial Positioning, and Dynamic Assembly of Nanoparticles

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Conspectus Several properties of nanomaterials, such as morphologies (e.g., shapes and surface structures) and distance dependent properties (e.g., plasmonic and quantum confinement effects), make nanomaterials uniquely qualified as potential choices for future applications from catalysis to biomedicine. To realize the full potential of these nanomaterials, it is important to demonstrate fine control of the morphology of individual nanoparticles, as well as precise spatial control of the position, orientation, and distances between multiple nanoparticles. In addition, dynamic control of nanomaterial assembly in response to multiple stimuli, with minimal or no error, and the reversibility of the assemblies are also required. In this Account, we summarize recent progress of using DNA as a powerful programmable tool to realize the above goals. First, inspired by the discovery of genetic codes in biology, we have discovered DNA sequence combinations to control different morphologies of nanoparticles during their growth process and have shown that these effects are synergistic or competitive, depending on the sequence combination. The DNA, which guides the growth of the nanomaterial, is stable and retains its biorecognition ability. Second, by taking advantage of different reactivities of phosphorothioate and phosphodiester backbone, we have placed phosphorothioate at selective positions on different DNA nanostructures including DNA tetrahedrons. Bifunctional linkers have been used to conjugate phosphorothioate on one end and bind nanoparticles or proteins on the other end. In doing so, precise control of distances between two or more nanoparticles or proteins with nanometer resolution can be achieved. Furthermore, by developing facile methods to functionalize two hemispheres of Janus nanoparticles with two different DNA sequences regioselectively, we have demonstrated directional control of nanomaterial assembly, where DNA strands with specific hybridization serve as

  11. Unraveling the interplay of community assembly processes acting on multiple niche axes across spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Trisos, Christopher H; Petchey, Owen L; Tobias, Joseph A

    2014-11-01

    How the relative importance of community assembly processes varies with spatial scale is the focus of intensive debate, in part because inferring the scales at which specific niche-based processes act is difficult. One obstacle is that standard phylogenetic and functional diversity metrics may integrate the signals of multiple processes when combining separate niche axes into one variable (multiple-niche-axis metrics), potentially obscuring overlapping niche-based processes. We use simulations to evaluate the power of these metrics to detect competition and habitat filtering when these processes operate across multiple niche axes and vary in their relative importance. We then test for both processes at a range of spatial scales in a Neotropical bird assemblage. Simulations revealed that multiple-niche-axis metrics had low power to detect competition and habitat filtering when a mix of both processes acts across niche axes, whereas metrics focused on single-niche axes were better able to deal with this complexity. We found the same contrast in bird communities, where both competition and habitat filtering were detected at the scale of individual territories, but only by single-niche-axis metrics focused on specific niche axes (e.g., foraging traits). Our results suggest that multiple-niche-axis metrics may produce misleading evidence that niche-based processes are partitioned, particularly across scales, and highlight the importance of analyzing functional diversity patterns on individual niche axes when testing assembly models.

  12. Spatially and temporally resolved exciton dynamics and transport in single nanostructures and assemblies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Libai

    2015-03-01

    The frontier in solar energy conversion now lies in learning how to integrate functional entities across multiple length scales to create optimal devices. To address this new frontier, I will discuss our recent efforts on elucidating multi-scale energy transfer, migration, and dissipation processes with simultaneous femtosecond temporal resolution and nanometer spatial resolution. We have developed ultrafast microscopy that combines ultrafast spectroscopy with optical microscopy to map exciton dynamics and transport with simultaneous ultrafast time resolution and diffraction-limited spatial resolution. We have employed pump-probe transient absorption microscopy to elucidate morphology and structure dependent exciton dynamics and transport in single nanostructures and molecular assemblies. More specifically, (1) We have applied transient absorption microscopy (TAM) to probe environmental and structure dependent exciton relaxation pathways in sing-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) by mapping dynamics in individual pristine SWNTs with known structures. (2) We have systematically measured and modeled the optical properties of the Frenkel excitons in self-assembled porphyrin tubular aggregates that represent an analog to natural photosynthetic antennae. Using a combination of ultrafast optical microscopy and stochastic exciton modeling, we address exciton transport and relaxation pathways, especially those related to disorder.

  13. Functional strategies drive community assembly of stream fishes along environmental gradients and across spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Troia, Matthew J; Gido, Keith B

    2015-02-01

    Trade-offs among functional traits produce multi-trait strategies that shape species' interactions with the environment and drive the assembly of local communities from regional species pools. Stream fish communities vary along stream size gradients and among hierarchically structured habitat patches, but little is known about how the dispersion of strategies varies along environmental gradients and across spatial scales. We used null models to quantify the dispersion of reproductive life history, feeding, and locomotion strategies in communities sampled at three spatial scales in a prairie stream network in Kansas, USA. Strategies were generally underdispersed at all spatial scales, corroborating the longstanding notion of abiotic filtering in stream fish communities. We tested for variation in strategy dispersion along a gradient of stream size and between headwater streams draining different ecoregions. Reproductive life history strategies became increasingly underdispersed moving from downstream to upstream, suggesting that abiotic filtering is stronger in headwaters. This pattern was stronger among reaches compared to mesohabitats, supporting the premise that differences in hydrologic regime among reaches filter reproductive life history strategies. Feeding strategies became increasingly underdispersed moving from upstream to downstream, indicating that environmental filters associated with stream size affect the dispersion of feeding and reproductive life history in opposing ways. Weak differences in strategy dispersion were detected between ecoregions, suggesting that different abiotic filters or strategies drive community differences between ecoregions. Given the pervasiveness of multi-trait strategies in plant and animal communities, we conclude that the assessment of strategy dispersion offers a comprehensive approach for elucidating mechanisms of community assembly. PMID:25502608

  14. Functional strategies drive community assembly of stream fishes along environmental gradients and across spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Troia, Matthew J; Gido, Keith B

    2015-02-01

    Trade-offs among functional traits produce multi-trait strategies that shape species' interactions with the environment and drive the assembly of local communities from regional species pools. Stream fish communities vary along stream size gradients and among hierarchically structured habitat patches, but little is known about how the dispersion of strategies varies along environmental gradients and across spatial scales. We used null models to quantify the dispersion of reproductive life history, feeding, and locomotion strategies in communities sampled at three spatial scales in a prairie stream network in Kansas, USA. Strategies were generally underdispersed at all spatial scales, corroborating the longstanding notion of abiotic filtering in stream fish communities. We tested for variation in strategy dispersion along a gradient of stream size and between headwater streams draining different ecoregions. Reproductive life history strategies became increasingly underdispersed moving from downstream to upstream, suggesting that abiotic filtering is stronger in headwaters. This pattern was stronger among reaches compared to mesohabitats, supporting the premise that differences in hydrologic regime among reaches filter reproductive life history strategies. Feeding strategies became increasingly underdispersed moving from upstream to downstream, indicating that environmental filters associated with stream size affect the dispersion of feeding and reproductive life history in opposing ways. Weak differences in strategy dispersion were detected between ecoregions, suggesting that different abiotic filters or strategies drive community differences between ecoregions. Given the pervasiveness of multi-trait strategies in plant and animal communities, we conclude that the assessment of strategy dispersion offers a comprehensive approach for elucidating mechanisms of community assembly.

  15. A spatially explicit model of runoff, evaporation, and lake extent: Application to modern and late Pleistocene lakes in the Great Basin region, western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsubara, Yo; Howard, Alan D.

    2009-06-01

    A spatially explicit hydrological model was applied to the Great Basin in the western United States to predict runoff magnitude and lake distributions under modern and late Pleistocene conditions. The model iteratively routes runoff through depression to find a steady state solution and was calibrated with mean annual precipitation, pan evaporation, temperature, and stream runoff data. The predicted lake distribution provides a close match to present-day lakes. For the late Pleistocene, the sizes of lakes Bonneville and Lahontan are well predicted by linear combinations of 0.2°-5.8°C decreases in temperature and corresponding increases in precipitation from 2.0 to 1.0 times modern values. This corresponds to runoff depths ranging from 1.7 to 4.1 times the present values and yearly evaporation from 0.4 to 1 times modern values. To reproduce Lake Manly, however, combinations of temperature decreases up to 9°C or precipitation up to 2.8 times the present values were required.

  16. Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Ying; Tao, Shu; Price, Oliver R; Shen, Huizhong; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-12-01

    SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction. PMID:25942589

  17. Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Ying; Tao, Shu; Price, Oliver R; Shen, Huizhong; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-12-01

    SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction.

  18. Spatially programmed assembling of oxidoreductases with single-stranded DNA for cofactor-required reactions.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tianwen David; Ma, Fei; Ma, Xingyuan; Wang, Ping

    2015-04-01

    Cofactor is especially important for biotransformation catalyzed by oxidoreductases. Many attempts in enhancing performance of the reactions by improving cofactor utilization have been reported. In this study, efficiency of cofactor-requiring biocatalysis was enhanced by improving cofactor recycling via spatially programmed assembling glycerol dehydrogenase (GlyDH, Escherichia coli MG1655) and glutamate dehydrogenase (GluDH, Bacillus subtilis str168), with the aid of single-stranded DNA (ssDNA). The two enzymes were first independently expressed as molecules fused with a phage protein A* that could covalently link ssDNA with certain features. After an enzymatic cross-linking reaction taking place under mild conditions, the conjugate of fused enzyme and ssDNA was assembled into desired structures through base pairing enabled by the ssDNA. Results showed that, to some extent, the fusion with protein A* could improve the specific activity of the enzymes (GlyDH-A*/GlyDH = 116.0 %; GluDH-A*/GluDH = 105.2 %). Additionally, in the coupled reaction system with glycerol and α-ketoglutaric acid as substrates, regarding the production of glutamic acid based on HPLC analysis, the efficiency of cofactor utilization was significantly enhanced (by 23.8- to 41.9-folds), indicating the existence of a substrate-channeling mechanism for cofactor utilization in the assembled reaction system due to the proximity effects. The degree of substrate channeling was calculated as from 1.65 to 1.73. Furthermore, the efficiency of cofactor utilization was influenced in an architecture-dependent manner when complexes with different stoichiometry of GlyDH and GluDH were utilized in biotransformation. This study demonstrated a novel strategy of cofactor recycling for enhanced performance of coupled oxidoreductive reactions.

  19. Designing Optimal LNG Station Network for U.S. Heavy-Duty Freight Trucks using Temporally and Spatially Explicit Supply Chain Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Allen

    The recent natural gas boom has opened much discussion about the potential of natural gas and specifically Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in the United States transportation sector. The switch from diesel to natural gas vehicles would reduce foreign dependence on oil, spur domestic economic growth, and potentially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. LNG provides the most potential for the medium to heavy-duty vehicle market partially due to unstable oil prices and stagnant natural gas prices. As long as the abundance of unconventional gas in the United States remains cheap, fuel switching to natural gas could provide significant cost savings for long haul freight industry. Amid a growing LNG station network and ever increasing demand for freight movement, LNG heavy-duty truck sales are less than anticipated and the industry as a whole is less economic than expected. In spite of much existing and mature natural gas infrastructure, the supply chain for LNG is different and requires explicit and careful planning. This thesis proposes research to explore the claim that the largest obstacle to widespread LNG market penetration is sub-optimal infrastructure planning. No other study we are aware of has explicitly explored the LNG transportation fuel supply chain for heavy-duty freight trucks. This thesis presents a novel methodology that links a network infrastructure optimization model (represents supply side) with a vehicle stock and economic payback model (represents demand side). The model characterizes both a temporal and spatial optimization model of future LNG transportation fuel supply chains in the United States. The principal research goal is to assess the economic feasibility of the current LNG transportation fuel industry and to determine an optimal pathway to achieve ubiquitous commercialization of LNG vehicles in the heavy-duty transport sector. The results indicate that LNG is not economic as a heavy-duty truck fuel until 2030 under current market conditions

  20. Functional oligomers for the control and fixation of spatial organization in nanoparticle assemblies.

    PubMed

    Wu, Chun-Kwei; Hultman, Kristi L; O'Brien, Stephen; Koberstein, Jeffrey T

    2008-03-19

    Interactions in nanoparticle assemblies play an important role in modulating their interesting magnetic and optical properties. Controlling and fixing the distance between nanoparticles is therefore crucial to the development of next-generation nanodevices. Here, we show that the interparticle distance in two-dimensional assemblies can be quantitatively controlled by functionalizing the nanoparticles with short polymers containing one functional end group that binds to the nanoparticle. Carboxy-functional poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) ligands are attached to the nanoparticle surface by a simple ligand exchange process with the oleic acid synthesis ligands. The distance between nanoparticles is manipulated by adjusting either the number of PDMS ligands per molecule or their molecular weight. The use of PDMS ligands is unique in that they provide a means to permanently and robustly fix the spatial distribution of nanoparticles because PDMS is readily converted to silicon oxide by a simple UV/ozone treatment. The distance between nanoparticles can be designed a priori, as it is found to scale well with theoretical predictions for the thickness of the surface-bound polymer brush layer.

  1. Spatially-Directed Assembly of a Heterotetrameric Cre-Lox Synapse Restricts Recombination Specificity

    PubMed Central

    Gelato, Kathy A.; Martin, Shelly S.; Liu, Patty H.; Saunders, April A.; Baldwin, Enoch P.

    2008-01-01

    SUMMARY The pseudo-fourfold homo-tetrameric synapse formed by Cre protein and target DNA restricts site-specific recombination to sequences containing dyad-symmetric Cre-binding repeats. Mixtures of engineered altered-specificity Cre monomers can form heterotetramers that recombine non-identical asymmetric sequences, allowing greater flexibility for target site selection in the genome of interest. However, the variety of tetramers allowed by random subunit association increases the chances of unintended reactivity at non-target sites. This problem can be circumvented by specifying a unique spatial arrangement of heterotetramer subunits. By reconfiguring inter-subunit protein-protein contacts, we directed the assembly of two different Cre monomers, each having a distinct DNA sequence specificity, in an alternating (ABAB) configuration. This designed heterotetramer preferentially recombined a particular pair of asymmetric Lox sites over other pairs, whereas a mixture of freely-associating subunits showed little bias. Alone, the engineered monomers had reduced reactivity towards both dyad-symmetric and asymmetric sites. Specificity arose because the organization of Cre-binding repeats of the preferred substrate matched the programmed arrangement of the subunits in the heterotetrameric synapse. Applying this “spatial matching” principle, Cre-mediated recombination can be directed to asymmetric DNA sequences with greater fidelity. PMID:18374357

  2. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

    2016-04-01

    Population expansion into fire-prone steeplands has resulted in an increase in post-fire debris-flow risk in the western United States. Logistic regression methods for determining debris-flow likelihood and the calculation of empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation represent two common approaches for characterizing hazard and reducing risk. Logistic regression models are currently being used to rapidly assess debris-flow hazard in response to design storms of known intensities (e.g. a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm). Empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds comprise a major component of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) debris-flow early warning system at a regional scale in southern California. However, these two modeling approaches remain independent, with each approach having limitations that do not allow for synergistic local-scale (e.g. drainage-basin scale) characterization of debris-flow hazard during intense rainfall. The current logistic regression equations consider rainfall a unique independent variable, which prevents the direct calculation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood. Regional (e.g. mountain range or physiographic province scale) rainfall intensity-duration thresholds fail to provide insight into the basin-scale variability of post-fire debris-flow hazard and require an extensive database of historical debris-flow occurrence and rainfall characteristics. Here, we present a new approach that combines traditional logistic regression and intensity-duration threshold methodologies. This method allows for local characterization of both the likelihood that a debris-flow will occur at a given rainfall intensity, the direct calculation of the rainfall rates that will result in a given likelihood, and the ability to calculate spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently

  3. Spatially-explicit estimates of greenhouse-gas payback times for perennial cellulosic biomass production on open lands in the Lake States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahajpal, R.

    2015-12-01

    The development of renewable energy sources is an integral step towards mitigating the carbon dioxide induced component of climate change. One important renewable source is plant biomass, comprising both food crops such as corn (Zea mays) and cellulosic biomass from short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) such as hybrid-poplar (Populus spp.) and Willow (Salix spp.). Due to their market acceptability and excellent energy balance, cellulosic feedstocks represent an abundant and if managed properly, a carbon-neutral and environmentally beneficial resource. We evaluate how site variability impacts the greenhouse-gas (GHG) benefits of SRWC plantations on lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan). We combine high-resolution, spatially-explicit estimates of biomass, soil organic carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for SRWC plantations from the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model along with life cycle analysis results from the GREET model to determine the greenhouse-gas payback time (GPBT) or the time needed before the GHG savings due to displacement of fossil fuels exceeds the initial losses from plantation establishment. We calibrate our models using unique yield and N2O emission data from sites across the Lake states that have been converted from pasture and hayfields to SRWC plantations. Our results show a reduction of 800,000 ha in non-agricultural open land availability for biomass production, a loss of nearly 37% (see attached figure). Overall, GPBTs range between 1 and 38 years, with the longest GPBTs occurring in the northern Lake states. Initial soil nitrate levels and site drainage potential explain more than half of the variation in GPBTs. Our results indicate a rapidly closing window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States.

  4. On the Use of an Explicit Microphysical Model to Investigate the Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Rainfall Microphysics in Different Storm Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, A.; Barros, A. P.

    2012-12-01

    Two Micro Rain Radars (MRRs) were deployed in the Southern Appalachians during the summer and fall seasons of 2012, in ridge and valley locations in the French Broad River Basin. The radars were collocated with Hydrological Services tipping bucket rain gauges at 0.1 mm resolution, Vaisala automated weather stations and Parsivel optical disdrometers. This study augments others conducted in previous years during the months May - September in ridge and valley locations in the Pigeon River Basin, and ridge-ridge studies across both basins. Observations from the vertically pointing radar are used to provide boundary conditions for an explicit raindrop population dynamics model, which solves the stochastic collection-breakup equation, in order to model the evolution of microphysical properties (drop size distribution, rain intensity and hydrometeor type) through time and space and gain insight into the processes (autoconversion, overarching synoptic conditions, terrain contributions) that drive this evolution. Surface observations from the disdrometers and rain gauges are used to investigate the model results. Observations from a spatially dense, high elevation rain gauge network are also used to further define storm structure. Results show significant variability in precipitation intensities and accumulations along the ridge line as well as suggest the localized importance of persistent fog interacting with low level cloud to intensify or trigger precipitation events that are often experienced only at high elevations and contribute significantly to the yearly water budget of the region. A period of cross calibration with both MRRs, Parsivel disdrometer models 1 and 2, automated weather stations and tipping bucket rain gauges (during May/early June 2012) is used to examine questions of uncertainty with regard to measurement scale. Last, the results from using this model at other locations during ground validation campaigns (TWP-ICE, MC3E) are compared with the findings

  5. Phylogenetic and morphological relationships between nonvolant small mammals reveal assembly processes at different spatial scales

    PubMed Central

    Luza, André Luís; Gonçalves, Gislene Lopes; Hartz, Sandra Maria

    2015-01-01

    The relative roles of historical processes, environmental filtering, and ecological interactions in the organization of species assemblages vary depending on the spatial scale. We evaluated the phylogenetic and morphological relationships between species and individuals (i.e., inter- and intraspecific variability) of Neotropical nonvolant small mammals coexisting in grassland-forest ecotones, in landscapes and in regions, that is, three different scales. We used a phylogenetic tree to infer evolutionary relationships, and morphological traits as indicators of performance and niche similarities between species and individuals. Subsequently, we applied phylogenetic and morphologic indexes of diversity and distance between species to evaluate small mammal assemblage structures on the three scales. The results indicated a repulsion pattern near forest edges, showing that phylogenetically similar species coexisted less often than expected by chance. The strategies for niche differentiation might explain the phylogenetic repulsion observed at the edge. Phylogenetic and morphological clustering in the grassland and at the forest interior indicated the coexistence of closely related and ecologically similar species and individuals. Coexistence patterns were similar whether species-trait values or individual values were used. At the landscape and regional scales, assemblages showed a predominant pattern of phylogenetic and morphological clustering. Environmental filters influenced the coexistence patterns at three scales, showing the importance of phylogenetically conserved ecological tolerances in enabling taxa co-occurrence. Evidence of phylogenetic repulsion in one region indicated that other processes beyond environmental filtering are important for community assembly at broad scales. Finally, ecological interactions and environmental filtering seemed important at the local scale, while environmental filtering and historical colonization seemed important for community

  6. Elevational gradients in β-diversity reflect variation in the strength of local community assembly mechanisms across spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Tello, J Sebastián; Myers, Jonathan A; Macía, Manuel J; Fuentes, Alfredo F; Cayola, Leslie; Arellano, Gabriel; Loza, M Isabel; Torrez, Vania; Cornejo, Maritza; Miranda, Tatiana B; Jørgensen, Peter M

    2015-01-01

    Despite long-standing interest in elevational-diversity gradients, little is known about the processes that cause changes in the compositional variation of communities (β-diversity) across elevations. Recent studies have suggested that β-diversity gradients are driven by variation in species pools, rather than by variation in the strength of local community assembly mechanisms such as dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, or local biotic interactions. However, tests of this hypothesis have been limited to very small spatial scales that limit inferences about how the relative importance of assembly mechanisms may change across spatial scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that scale-dependent community assembly mechanisms shape biogeographic β-diversity gradients using one of the most well-characterized elevational gradients of tropical plant diversity. Using an extensive dataset on woody plant distributions along a 4,000-m elevational gradient in the Bolivian Andes, we compared observed patterns of β-diversity to null-model expectations. β-deviations (standardized differences from null values) were used to measure the relative effects of local community assembly mechanisms after removing sampling effects caused by variation in species pools. To test for scale-dependency, we compared elevational gradients at two contrasting spatial scales that differed in the size of local assemblages and regions by at least an order of magnitude. Elevational gradients in β-diversity persisted after accounting for regional variation in species pools. Moreover, the elevational gradient in β-deviations changed with spatial scale. At small scales, local assembly mechanisms were detectable, but variation in species pools accounted for most of the elevational gradient in β-diversity. At large spatial scales, in contrast, local assembly mechanisms were a dominant force driving changes in β-diversity. In contrast to the hypothesis that variation in species pools alone

  7. Elevational Gradients in β-Diversity Reflect Variation in the Strength of Local Community Assembly Mechanisms across Spatial Scales

    PubMed Central

    Tello, J. Sebastián; Myers, Jonathan A.; Macía, Manuel J.; Fuentes, Alfredo F.; Cayola, Leslie; Arellano, Gabriel; Loza, M. Isabel; Torrez, Vania; Cornejo, Maritza; Miranda, Tatiana B.; Jørgensen, Peter M.

    2015-01-01

    Despite long-standing interest in elevational-diversity gradients, little is known about the processes that cause changes in the compositional variation of communities (β-diversity) across elevations. Recent studies have suggested that β-diversity gradients are driven by variation in species pools, rather than by variation in the strength of local community assembly mechanisms such as dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, or local biotic interactions. However, tests of this hypothesis have been limited to very small spatial scales that limit inferences about how the relative importance of assembly mechanisms may change across spatial scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that scale-dependent community assembly mechanisms shape biogeographic β-diversity gradients using one of the most well-characterized elevational gradients of tropical plant diversity. Using an extensive dataset on woody plant distributions along a 4,000-m elevational gradient in the Bolivian Andes, we compared observed patterns of β-diversity to null-model expectations. β-deviations (standardized differences from null values) were used to measure the relative effects of local community assembly mechanisms after removing sampling effects caused by variation in species pools. To test for scale-dependency, we compared elevational gradients at two contrasting spatial scales that differed in the size of local assemblages and regions by at least an order of magnitude. Elevational gradients in β-diversity persisted after accounting for regional variation in species pools. Moreover, the elevational gradient in β-deviations changed with spatial scale. At small scales, local assembly mechanisms were detectable, but variation in species pools accounted for most of the elevational gradient in β-diversity. At large spatial scales, in contrast, local assembly mechanisms were a dominant force driving changes in β-diversity. In contrast to the hypothesis that variation in species pools alone

  8. E3 ubiquitin ligase RNF13 involves spatial learning and assembly of the SNARE complex.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiang; Li, Yanfeng; Zhang, Lei; Yang, Nan; Meng, Jiao; Zuo, Pingping; Zhang, Yong; Chen, Jie; Wang, Li; Gao, Xiang; Zhu, Dahai

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the structure and number of synapses modulate learning, memory and cognitive disorders. Ubiquitin-mediated protein modification is a key mechanism for regulating synaptic activity, though the precise control of this process remains poorly understood. RING finger protein 13 (RNF13) is a recently identified E3 ubiquitin ligase, and its in vivo function remains completely unknown. We show here that genetic deletion of RNF13 in mice leads to a significant deficit in spatial learning as determined by the Morris water maze test and Y-maze learning test. At the ultrastructral level, the synaptic vesicle density was decreased and the area of the active zone was increased at hippocampal synapses of RNF13-null mice compared with those of wild-type littermates. We found no change in the levels of SNARE (soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor-attachment protein receptor) complex proteins in the hippocampus of RNF13-null mice, but impaired SNARE complex assembly. RNF13 directly interacted with snapin, a SNAP-25-interacting protein. Interestingly, snapin was ubiquitinated by RNF13 via the lysine-29 conjugated polyubiquitin chain, which in turn promoted the association of snapin with SNAP-25. Consistently, we found an attenuated interaction between snapin and SNAP-25 in the RNF13-null mice. Therefore, these results suggest that RNF13 is involved in the regulation of the SNARE complex, which thereby controls synaptic function.

  9. Balancing spatially regulated β-actin translation and dynamin-mediated endocytosis is required to assemble functional epithelial monolayers.

    PubMed

    Cruz, Lissette A; Vedula, Pavan; Gutierrez, Natasha; Shah, Neel; Rodriguez, Steven; Ayee, Brian; Davis, Justin; Rodriguez, Alexis J

    2015-12-01

    Regulating adherens junction complex assembly/disassembly is critical to maintaining epithelial homeostasis in healthy epithelial tissues. Consequently, adherens junction structure and function is often perturbed in clinically advanced tumors of epithelial origin. Some of the most studied factors driving adherens junction complex perturbation in epithelial cancers are transcriptional and epigenetic down-regulation of E-cadherin expression. However, numerous reports demonstrate that post-translational regulatory mechanisms such as endocytosis also regulate early phases of epithelial-mesenchymal transition and metastatic progression. In already assembled healthy epithelia, E-cadherin endocytosis recycles cadherin-catenin complexes to regulate the number of mature adherens junctions found at cell-cell contact sites. However, following de novo epithelial cell-cell contact, endocytosis negatively regulates adherens junction assembly by removing E-cadherin from the cell surface. By contrast, following de novo epithelial cell-cell contact, spatially localized β-actin translation drives cytoskeletal remodeling and consequently E-cadherin clustering at cell-cell contact sites and therefore positively regulates adherens junction assembly. In this report we demonstrate that dynamin-mediated endocytosis and β-actin translation-dependent cadherin-catenin complex anchoring oppose each other following epithelial cell-cell contact. Consequently, the final extent of adherens junction assembly depends on which of these processes is dominant following epithelial cell-cell contact. We expressed β-actin transcripts impaired in their ability to properly localize monomer synthesis (Δ3'UTR) in MDCK cells to perturb actin filament remodeling and anchoring, and demonstrate the resulting defect in adherens junction structure and function is rescued by inhibiting dynamin mediated endocytosis. Therefore, we demonstrate balancing spatially regulated β-actin translation and dynamin

  10. A Combined Global and Local Approach to Elucidate Spatial Organization of the Mycobacterial ParB-parS Partition Assembly

    SciTech Connect

    B Chaudhuri; S Gupta; V Urban; M Chance; R DMello; L Smith; K Lyons; J Gee

    2011-12-31

    Combining diverse sets of data at global (size, shape) and local (residue) scales is an emerging trend for elucidating the organization and function of the cellular assemblies. We used such a strategy, combining data from X-ray and neutron scattering with H/D-contrast variation and X-ray footprinting with mass spectrometry, to elucidate the spatial organization of the ParB-parS assembly from Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The ParB-parS participates in plasmid and chromosome segregation and condensation in predivisional bacterial cells. ParB polymerizes around the parS centromere(s) to form a higher-order assembly that serves to recruit cyto-skeletal ParA ATPases and SMC proteins for chromosome segregation. A hybrid model of the ParB-parS was built by combining and correlating computational models with experiment-derived information about size, shape, position of the symmetry axis within the shape, internal topology, DNA-protein interface, exposed surface patches, and prior knowledge. This first view of the ParB-parS leads us to propose how ParB spread on the chromosome to form a larger assembly.

  11. A combined global and local approach to elucidate spatial organization of the Mycobacterial ParB-parS partition assembly.

    PubMed

    Chaudhuri, Barnali N; Gupta, Sayan; Urban, Volker S; Chance, Mark R; D'Mello, Rhijuta; Smith, Lauren; Lyons, Kelly; Gee, Jessica

    2011-03-22

    Combining diverse sets of data at global (size, shape) and local (residue) scales is an emerging trend for elucidating the organization and function of the cellular assemblies. We used such a strategy, combining data from X-ray and neutron scattering with H/D-contrast variation and X-ray footprinting with mass spectrometry, to elucidate the spatial organization of the ParB-parS assembly from Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The ParB-parS participates in plasmid and chromosome segregation and condensation in predivisional bacterial cells. ParB polymerizes around the parS centromere(s) to form a higher-order assembly that serves to recruit cyto-skeletal ParA ATPases and SMC proteins for chromosome segregation. A hybrid model of the ParB-parS was built by combining and correlating computational models with experiment-derived information about size, shape, position of the symmetry axis within the shape, internal topology, DNA-protein interface, exposed surface patches, and prior knowledge. This first view of the ParB-parS leads us to propose how ParB spread on the chromosome to form a larger assembly.

  12. Time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) coupled with reference interaction site model self-consistent field explicitly including spatial electron density distribution (RISM-SCF-SEDD).

    PubMed

    Yokogawa, D

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical approach to design bright bio-imaging molecules is one of the most progressing ones. However, because of the system size and computational accuracy, the number of theoretical studies is limited to our knowledge. To overcome the difficulties, we developed a new method based on reference interaction site model self-consistent field explicitly including spatial electron density distribution and time-dependent density functional theory. We applied it to the calculation of indole and 5-cyanoindole at ground and excited states in gas and solution phases. The changes in the optimized geometries were clearly explained with resonance structures and the Stokes shift was correctly reproduced. PMID:27608983

  13. Time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) coupled with reference interaction site model self-consistent field explicitly including spatial electron density distribution (RISM-SCF-SEDD)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokogawa, D.

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical approach to design bright bio-imaging molecules is one of the most progressing ones. However, because of the system size and computational accuracy, the number of theoretical studies is limited to our knowledge. To overcome the difficulties, we developed a new method based on reference interaction site model self-consistent field explicitly including spatial electron density distribution and time-dependent density functional theory. We applied it to the calculation of indole and 5-cyanoindole at ground and excited states in gas and solution phases. The changes in the optimized geometries were clearly explained with resonance structures and the Stokes shift was correctly reproduced.

  14. Directing the assembly of spatially organized multicomponent tissues from the bottom up.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jennifer S; Gartner, Zev J

    2012-12-01

    The complexity of the human body derives from numerous modular building blocks assembled hierarchically across multiple length scales. These building blocks, spanning sizes ranging from single cells to organs, interact to regulate development and normal organismal function but become disorganized during disease. Here, we review methods for the bottom-up and directed assembly of modular, multicellular, and tissue-like constructs in vitro. These engineered tissues will help refine our understanding of the relationship between form and function in the human body, provide new models for the breakdown in tissue architecture that accompanies disease, and serve as building blocks for the field of regenerative medicine.

  15. Spatial location and requirements for the assembly of the Agrobacterium tumefaciens type IV secretion apparatus

    PubMed Central

    Judd, Paul K.; Kumar, Renu B.; Das, Anath

    2005-01-01

    Type IV secretion is used by pathogenic microorganisms to transfer effector macromolecules to eukaryotic target cells. The VirB/D4 apparatus of Agrobacterium tumefaciens transfers DNA and proteins to plant cells. We postulated that the cell pole is the site of assembly of the A. tumefaciens type IV apparatus. Using immunofluorescence microscopy, we now demonstrate that 10 of the VirB proteins localized primarily to one cell pole and a macromolecular VirB complex is assembled at the pole. Neither the assembly of the complex nor polar localization of a VirB protein requires ATP utilization by the VirB ATPases. The requirement of other VirB proteins for the polar localization of at least six VirB proteins indicates an essential role of protein–protein interaction in polar targeting. Four proteins (VirB3, VirB4, VirB8, and VirB11) could target themselves to a cell pole independent of a VirB protein. We provide evidence that VirB6–VirB10 are the structural components of the type IV apparatus. Using strains that express defined subsets of the virB genes, we demonstrate that VirB7–VirB10 are the minimum components sufficient for the assembly of a polar VirB complex. VirB6 associates with this complex to form the type IV secretion apparatus. VirB8 functions as the assembly factor and targets the apparatus to the cell pole. PMID:16076948

  16. Replicating centromeric chromatin: Spatial and temporal control of CENP-A assembly

    SciTech Connect

    Nechemia-Arbely, Yael; Fachinetti, Daniele; Cleveland, Don W.

    2012-07-15

    The centromere is the fundamental unit for insuring chromosome inheritance. This complex region has a distinct type of chromatin in which histone H3 is replaced by a structurally different homologue identified in humans as CENP-A. In metazoans, specific DNA sequences are neither required nor sufficient for centromere identity. Rather, an epigenetic mark comprised of CENP-A containing chromatin is thought to be the major determinant of centromere identity. In this view, CENP-A deposition and chromatin assembly are fundamental processes for the maintenance of centromeric identity across mitotic and meiotic divisions. Several lines of evidence support CENP-A deposition in metazoans occurring at only one time in the cell cycle. Such cell cycle-dependent loading of CENP-A is found in divergent species from human to fission yeast, albeit with differences in the cell cycle point at which CENP-A is assembled. Cell cycle dependent CENP-A deposition requires multiple assembly factors for its deposition and maintenance. This review discusses the regulation of new CENP-A deposition and its relevance to centromere identity and inheritance.

  17. Spatially explicit models of dynamic histories: examination of the genetic consequences of Pleistocene glaciation and recent climate change on the American Pika.

    PubMed

    Brown, Jason L; Knowles, L Lacey

    2012-08-01

    A central goal of phylogeography is to identify and characterize the processes underlying divergence. One of the biggest impediments currently faced is how to capture the spatiotemporal dynamic under which a species evolved. Here, we described an approach that couples species distribution models (SDMs), demographic and genetic models in a spatiotemporally explicit manner. Analyses of American Pika (Ochotona princeps) from the sky islands of the central Rocky Mountains of North America are used to provide insights into key questions about integrative approaches in landscape genetics, population genetics and phylogeography. This includes (i) general issues surrounding the conversion of time-specific SDMs into simple continuous, dynamic landscapes from past to current, (ii) the utility of SDMs to inform demographic models with deme-specific carrying capacities and migration potentials as well as (iii) the contribution of the temporal dynamic of colonization history in shaping genetic patterns of contemporary populations. Our results support that the inclusion of a spatiotemporal dynamic is an important factor when studying the impact of distributional shifts on patterns of genetic data. Our results also demonstrate the utility of SDMs to generate species-specific predictions about patterns of genetic variation that account for varying degrees of habitat specialization and life history characteristics of taxa. Nevertheless, the results highlight some key issues when converting SDMs for use in demographic models. Because the transformations have direct effects on the genetic consequence of population expansion by prescribing how habitat heterogeneity and spatiotemporal variation is related to the species-specific demographic model, it is important to consider alternative transformations when studying the genetic consequences of distributional shifts.

  18. Spatially explicit models of dynamic histories: examination of the genetic consequences of Pleistocene glaciation and recent climate change on the American Pika.

    PubMed

    Brown, Jason L; Knowles, L Lacey

    2012-08-01

    A central goal of phylogeography is to identify and characterize the processes underlying divergence. One of the biggest impediments currently faced is how to capture the spatiotemporal dynamic under which a species evolved. Here, we described an approach that couples species distribution models (SDMs), demographic and genetic models in a spatiotemporally explicit manner. Analyses of American Pika (Ochotona princeps) from the sky islands of the central Rocky Mountains of North America are used to provide insights into key questions about integrative approaches in landscape genetics, population genetics and phylogeography. This includes (i) general issues surrounding the conversion of time-specific SDMs into simple continuous, dynamic landscapes from past to current, (ii) the utility of SDMs to inform demographic models with deme-specific carrying capacities and migration potentials as well as (iii) the contribution of the temporal dynamic of colonization history in shaping genetic patterns of contemporary populations. Our results support that the inclusion of a spatiotemporal dynamic is an important factor when studying the impact of distributional shifts on patterns of genetic data. Our results also demonstrate the utility of SDMs to generate species-specific predictions about patterns of genetic variation that account for varying degrees of habitat specialization and life history characteristics of taxa. Nevertheless, the results highlight some key issues when converting SDMs for use in demographic models. Because the transformations have direct effects on the genetic consequence of population expansion by prescribing how habitat heterogeneity and spatiotemporal variation is related to the species-specific demographic model, it is important to consider alternative transformations when studying the genetic consequences of distributional shifts. PMID:22702844

  19. Systematic, spatial imaging of large multimolecular assemblies and the emerging principles of supramolecular order in biological systems

    PubMed Central

    Schubert, Walter

    2013-01-01

    Understanding biological systems at the level of their relational (emergent) molecular properties in functional protein networks relies on imaging methods, able to spatially resolve a tissue or a cell as a giant, non-random, topologically defined collection of interacting supermolecules executing myriads of subcellular mechanisms. Here, the development and findings of parameter-unlimited functional super-resolution microscopy are described—a technology based on the fluorescence imaging cycler (IC) principle capable of co-mapping thousands of distinct biomolecular assemblies at high spatial resolution and differentiation (<40 nm distances). It is shown that the subcellular and transcellular features of such supermolecules can be described at the compositional and constitutional levels; that the spatial connection, relational stoichiometry, and topology of supermolecules generate hitherto unrecognized functional self-segmentation of biological tissues; that hierarchical features, common to thousands of simultaneously imaged supermolecules, can be identified; and how the resulting supramolecular order relates to spatial coding of cellular functionalities in biological systems. A large body of observations with IC molecular systems microscopy collected over 20 years have disclosed principles governed by a law of supramolecular segregation of cellular functionalities. This pervades phenomena, such as exceptional orderliness, functional selectivity, combinatorial and spatial periodicity, and hierarchical organization of large molecular systems, across all species investigated so far. This insight is based on the high degree of specificity, selectivity, and sensitivity of molecular recognition processes for fluorescence imaging beyond the spectral resolution limit, using probe libraries controlled by ICs. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Molecular Recognition published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24375580

  20. A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Junguo; Fritz, Steffen; van Wesenbeeck, C. F. A.; Fuchs, Michael; You, Liangzhi; Obersteiner, Michael; Yang, Hong

    2008-12-01

    Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA.

  1. Single molecule analysis of functionally asymmetric G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oligomers reveals diverse spatial and structural assemblies.

    PubMed

    Jonas, Kim C; Fanelli, Francesca; Huhtaniemi, Ilpo T; Hanyaloglu, Aylin C

    2015-02-13

    Formation of G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) into dimers and higher order oligomers represents a key mechanism in pleiotropic signaling, yet how individual protomers function within oligomers remains poorly understood. We present a super-resolution imaging approach, resolving single GPCR molecules to ∼ 8 nm resolution in functional asymmetric dimers and oligomers using dual-color photoactivatable dyes and localization microscopy (PD-PALM). PD-PALM of two functionally defined mutant luteinizing hormone receptors (LHRs), a ligand-binding deficient receptor (LHR(B-)) and a signaling-deficient (LHR(S-)) receptor, which only function via intermolecular cooperation, favored oligomeric over dimeric formation. PD-PALM imaging of trimers and tetramers revealed specific spatial organizations of individual protomers in complexes where the ratiometric composition of LHR(B-) to LHR(S-) modulated ligand-induced signal sensitivity. Structural modeling of asymmetric LHR oligomers strongly aligned with PD-PALM-imaged spatial arrangements, identifying multiple possible helix interfaces mediating inter-protomer associations. Our findings reveal that diverse spatial and structural assemblies mediating GPCR oligomerization may acutely fine-tune the cellular signaling profile.

  2. A spatially explicit metapopulation model and cattle trade analysis suggests key determinants for the recurrent circulation of rift valley Fever virus in a pilot area of madagascar highlands.

    PubMed

    Nicolas, Gaëlle; Chevalier, Véronique; Tantely, Luciano Michaël; Fontenille, Didier; Durand, Benoît

    2014-12-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that causes high morbidity and mortality in ruminants. In 2008-2009, a RVF outbreak affected the whole Madagascar island, including the Anjozorobe district located in Madagascar highlands. An entomological survey showed the absence of Aedes among the potential RVF virus (RVFV) vector species identified in this area, and an overall low abundance of mosquitoes due to unfavorable climatic conditions during winter. No serological nor virological sign of infection was observed in wild terrestrial mammals of the area, suggesting an absence of wild RVF virus (RVFV) reservoir. However, a three years serological and virological follow-up in cattle showed a recurrent RVFV circulation. The objective of this study was to understand the key determinants of this unexpected recurrent transmission. To achieve this goal, a spatial deterministic discrete-time metapopulation model combined with cattle trade network was designed and parameterized to reproduce the local conditions using observational data collected in the area. Three scenarios that could explain the RVFV recurrent circulation in the area were analyzed: (i) RVFV overwintering thanks to a direct transmission between cattle when viraemic cows calve, vectors being absent during the winter, (ii) a low level vector-based circulation during winter thanks to a residual vector population, without direct transmission between cattle, (iii) combination of both above mentioned mechanisms. Multi-model inference methods resulted in a model incorporating both a low level RVFV winter vector-borne transmission and a direct transmission between animals when viraemic cows calve. Predictions satisfactorily reproduced field observations, 84% of cattle infections being attributed to vector-borne transmission, and 16% to direct transmission. These results appeared robust according to the sensitivity analysis. Interweaving between agricultural works in rice fields, seasonality of

  3. A Spatially Explicit Metapopulation Model and Cattle Trade Analysis Suggests Key Determinants for the Recurrent Circulation of Rift Valley Fever Virus in a Pilot Area of Madagascar Highlands

    PubMed Central

    Nicolas, Gaëlle; Chevalier, Véronique; Tantely, Luciano Michaël; Fontenille, Didier; Durand, Benoît

    2014-01-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that causes high morbidity and mortality in ruminants. In 2008–2009, a RVF outbreak affected the whole Madagascar island, including the Anjozorobe district located in Madagascar highlands. An entomological survey showed the absence of Aedes among the potential RVF virus (RVFV) vector species identified in this area, and an overall low abundance of mosquitoes due to unfavorable climatic conditions during winter. No serological nor virological sign of infection was observed in wild terrestrial mammals of the area, suggesting an absence of wild RVF virus (RVFV) reservoir. However, a three years serological and virological follow-up in cattle showed a recurrent RVFV circulation. The objective of this study was to understand the key determinants of this unexpected recurrent transmission. To achieve this goal, a spatial deterministic discrete-time metapopulation model combined with cattle trade network was designed and parameterized to reproduce the local conditions using observational data collected in the area. Three scenarios that could explain the RVFV recurrent circulation in the area were analyzed: (i) RVFV overwintering thanks to a direct transmission between cattle when viraemic cows calve, vectors being absent during the winter, (ii) a low level vector-based circulation during winter thanks to a residual vector population, without direct transmission between cattle, (iii) combination of both above mentioned mechanisms. Multi-model inference methods resulted in a model incorporating both a low level RVFV winter vector-borne transmission and a direct transmission between animals when viraemic cows calve. Predictions satisfactorily reproduced field observations, 84% of cattle infections being attributed to vector-borne transmission, and 16% to direct transmission. These results appeared robust according to the sensitivity analysis. Interweaving between agricultural works in rice fields, seasonality of

  4. The role of spatial information in the preservation of the shrimp nursery function of mangroves: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for the assessment of land use trade-offs.

    PubMed

    Zavalloni, Matteo; Groeneveld, Rolf A; van Zwieten, Paul A M

    2014-10-01

    Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bio-economic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the nursery habitat service of mangroves: (1) direct or indirect connection of mangroves to watercourses; (2) the spatial allocation of aquaculture ponds; and (3) the presence of non-linear relations between mangrove extent and juvenile recruitment to wild shrimp populations. By tracing out the production possibilities frontier of wild and cultivated shrimp, the model assesses the role of spatial information in the trade-off between aquaculture and the nursery habitat function using spatial elements relevant to our model of a mangrove area in Ca Mau Province, Viet Nam. Results show that where mangrove forests have to coexist with shrimp aquaculture ponds, the inclusion of specific spatial information on ecosystem functions in considerations of land allocation can achieve aquaculture benefits while largely preserving the economic benefits generated by the nursery habitat function. However, if spatial criteria are ignored, ill-advised land allocation decisions can easily lead to a collapse of the mangrove's nursery function. PMID:24833524

  5. The role of spatial information in the preservation of the shrimp nursery function of mangroves: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for the assessment of land use trade-offs.

    PubMed

    Zavalloni, Matteo; Groeneveld, Rolf A; van Zwieten, Paul A M

    2014-10-01

    Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bio-economic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the nursery habitat service of mangroves: (1) direct or indirect connection of mangroves to watercourses; (2) the spatial allocation of aquaculture ponds; and (3) the presence of non-linear relations between mangrove extent and juvenile recruitment to wild shrimp populations. By tracing out the production possibilities frontier of wild and cultivated shrimp, the model assesses the role of spatial information in the trade-off between aquaculture and the nursery habitat function using spatial elements relevant to our model of a mangrove area in Ca Mau Province, Viet Nam. Results show that where mangrove forests have to coexist with shrimp aquaculture ponds, the inclusion of specific spatial information on ecosystem functions in considerations of land allocation can achieve aquaculture benefits while largely preserving the economic benefits generated by the nursery habitat function. However, if spatial criteria are ignored, ill-advised land allocation decisions can easily lead to a collapse of the mangrove's nursery function.

  6. Crop water productivity under increasing irrigation capacities in Romania. A spatially-explicit assessment of winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the southern lowlands of the country

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogaru, Diana

    2016-04-01

    Improved water use efficiency in agriculture is a key issue in terms of sustainable management and consumption of water resources in the context of peoples' increasing food demands and preferences, economic growth and agricultural adaptation options to climate variability and change. Crop Water Productivity (CWP), defined as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to actual evapotranspiration or as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to volume of supplied irrigation water (Molden et al., 1998), is a useful indicator in the evaluation of water use efficiency and ultimately of cropland management, particularly in the case of regions affected by or prone to drought and where irrigation application is essential for achieving expected productions. The present study investigates the productivity of water in winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the Romanian Plain (49 594 sq. km), an important agricultural region in the southern part of the country which is increasingly affected by drought and dry spells (Sandu and Mateescu, 2014). The scope of the analysis is to assess the gains and losses in CWP for the two crops, by considering increased irrigated cropland and improved fertilization, these being the most common measures potentially and already implemented by the farmers. In order to capture the effects of such measures on agricultural water use, the GIS-based EPIC crop-growth model (GEPIC) (Williams et al., 1989; Liu, 2009) was employed to simulate yields, seasonal evapotranspiration from crops and volume of irrigation water in the Romanian Plain for the 2002 - 2013 interval with focus on 2007 and 2010, two representative years for dry and wet periods, respectively. The GEPIC model operates on a daily time step, while the geospatial input datasets for this analysis (e.g. climate data, soil classes and soil parameters, land use) were harmonized at 1km resolution grid cell. The sources of the spatial data are mainly the national profile agencies

  7. The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

    2003-11-21

    We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in the literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.

  8. Crop water productivity under increasing irrigation capacities in Romania. A spatially-explicit assessment of winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the southern lowlands of the country

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogaru, Diana

    2016-04-01

    Improved water use efficiency in agriculture is a key issue in terms of sustainable management and consumption of water resources in the context of peoples' increasing food demands and preferences, economic growth and agricultural adaptation options to climate variability and change. Crop Water Productivity (CWP), defined as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to actual evapotranspiration or as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to volume of supplied irrigation water (Molden et al., 1998), is a useful indicator in the evaluation of water use efficiency and ultimately of cropland management, particularly in the case of regions affected by or prone to drought and where irrigation application is essential for achieving expected productions. The present study investigates the productivity of water in winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the Romanian Plain (49 594 sq. km), an important agricultural region in the southern part of the country which is increasingly affected by drought and dry spells (Sandu and Mateescu, 2014). The scope of the analysis is to assess the gains and losses in CWP for the two crops, by considering increased irrigated cropland and improved fertilization, these being the most common measures potentially and already implemented by the farmers. In order to capture the effects of such measures on agricultural water use, the GIS-based EPIC crop-growth model (GEPIC) (Williams et al., 1989; Liu, 2009) was employed to simulate yields, seasonal evapotranspiration from crops and volume of irrigation water in the Romanian Plain for the 2002 - 2013 interval with focus on 2007 and 2010, two representative years for dry and wet periods, respectively. The GEPIC model operates on a daily time step, while the geospatial input datasets for this analysis (e.g. climate data, soil classes and soil parameters, land use) were harmonized at 1km resolution grid cell. The sources of the spatial data are mainly the national profile agencies

  9. Control of cell division and the spatial localization of assembled gene products in Caulobacter crescentus

    SciTech Connect

    Nathan, P.D.

    1988-01-01

    Experiments are described that examine the role of penicillin-binding proteins (PBPs) in the regulation of cell division in Caulobacter crescentus; and the spatial localization of methyl-accepting chemotaxis proteins (MCPs) in C. crescentus swarmer and predivisional cells. In the analysis of PBP function, in vivo and in vitro assays are used to directly label C. crescentus PBPs with (/sup 3/H) penicillin G in wild type strain CB15, in a series of conditional cell division mutants and in new temperature sensitive cephalosporin C resistant mutants PC8002 and PC8003. 14 PBPs are characterized and a high molecular weight PBP (PBP 1B) that is required for cell division is identified. PBP 1B competes for ..beta..-lactams that induce filament formation and may be a high affinity binding protein. A second high molecular weight PBP (PBP 1C) is also associated with defective cell division. The examination of PBP patterns in synchronous swarmer cells reveals that the in vivo activity of PBP 1B and PBP 1C increases at the time that the cell division pathway is initiated. None of the PBPs, however, appear to be differentially localized in the C. crescentus cell. In the analysis of MCP localization, in vivo and in vitro assays are used to directly label C. crescentus MCPs with methyl-/sup 3/H. MCPs are examined in flagellated and non-flagellated vesicles prepared from cells by immunoaffinity chromatography.

  10. Selection of preconfigured cell assemblies for representation of novel spatial experiences

    PubMed Central

    Dragoi, George; Tonegawa, Susumu

    2014-01-01

    Internal representations about the external world can be driven by the external stimuli or can be internally generated in their absence. It has been a matter of debate whether novel stimuli from the external world are instructive over the brain network to create de novo representations or, alternatively, are selecting from existing pre-representations hosted in preconfigured brain networks. The hippocampus is a brain area necessary for normal internally generated spatial–temporal representations and its dysfunctions have resulted in anterograde amnesia, impaired imagining of new experiences, and hallucinations. The compressed temporal sequence of place cell activity in the rodent hippocampus serves as an animal model of internal representation of the external space. Based on our recent results on the phenomenon of novel place cell sequence preplay, we submit that the place cell sequence of a novel spatial experience is determined, in part, by a selection of a set of cellular firing sequences from a repertoire of existing temporal firing sequences in the hippocampal network. Conceptually, this indicates that novel stimuli from the external world select from their pre-representations rather than create de novo our internal representations of the world. PMID:24366134

  11. Spatial and temporal variations of new particle formation in East Asia using an NPF-explicit WRF-chem model: North-south contrast in new particle formation frequency

    SciTech Connect

    Matsui, H.; Koike, Makoto; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Kondo, Yutaka; Takami, A.; Takamura, T.; Yoon, Soh-joung; Kim, S. W.; Lim, Hyuntae; Fast, Jerome D.

    2013-10-27

    The new particle formation (NPF)-explicit version of the WRF-chem model, which we developed recently, can calculate the growth and sink of nucleated clusters explicitly with 20 aerosol size bins from 1 nm to 10 μm. In this study, the model is used to understand spatial and temporal variations of the frequency of NPF events and the concentrations of aerosols (condensation nuclei, CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within the boundary layer in East Asia in spring 2009. Model simulations show distinct north-south contrast in the frequency and mechanism of NPF in East Asia. NPF mostly occurred over limited periods and regions between 30° and 45°N, such as northeast China, Korea, and Japan, including regions around active volcanoes (Miyakejima and Sakurajima). At these latitudes, NPF was considerably suppressed by high concentrations of preexisting particles under stagnant air conditions associated with high-pressure systems, while nucleation occurred more extensively on most days during the simulation period. Conversely, neither nucleation nor NPF occurred frequently south of 30°N because of lower SO2 emissions and H2SO4 concentrations. The period-averaged NPF frequency was 3 times higher at latitudes of 30° - 45°N than at latitudes of 20° - 30°N. The north-south contrast of NPF frequency is validated by surface measurements in outflow regions in East Asia. The period- and domain-averaged contribution of secondary particles is estimated to be 44% for CN (> 10 nm) and 26% for CCN at a supersaturation of 1.0% in our simulation, though the contribution is highly sensitive to the magnitudes and size distributions of primary aerosol emissions and the coefficients in the nucleation parameterizations.

  12. Self-assembled monolayers of alpha,omega-diphosphonic acids on Ti enable complete or spatially controlled surface derivatization.

    PubMed

    Danahy, Michael P; Avaltroni, Michael J; Midwood, Kim S; Schwarzbauer, Jean E; Schwartz, Jeffrey

    2004-06-22

    Alpha,omega-diphosphonic acids self-assemble on the native oxide surfaces of Ti or Ti-6Al-4V. Heating gives strongly bonded phosphonate monolayers. Infrared and X-ray spectroscopic and water contact angle data show that the films are bonded to the surface by one phosphonate unit; the other remains a phosphonic acid. Surface loadings were measured by quartz crystal microbalance procedures. Mechanical shear strengths for the films were also measured; these do not correlate simply with surface loadings. Films formed from 1,12-diphosphonododecane were treated with zirconium tetra(tert-butoxide) to give surface Zr complex species; derivatives of these surface complexes are stable to hydrolysis under physiological conditions and are mechanically strong. The complexation reaction can be accomplished over the entire surface; alternatively, dropwise application of the alkoxide to the surface enables spatial control of deposition. The cell attractive peptide derivative RGDC can be bound to these surface Zr alkoxide complexes through (maleimido)-alkylcarboxylate intermediates. Surfaces modified with RGDC were shown to be effective for osteoblast binding and proliferation. PMID:15986670

  13. A spatially-explicit model of acarological risk of exposure to Borrelia burgdorferi-infected Ixodes pacificus nymphs in northwestern California based on woodland type, temperature, and water vapor.

    PubMed

    Eisen, Rebecca J; Eisen, Lars; Girard, Yvette A; Fedorova, Natalia; Mun, Jeomhee; Slikas, Beth; Leonhard, Sarah; Kitron, Uriel; Lane, Robert S

    2010-03-01

    In the far-western United States, the nymphal stage of the western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus, has been implicated as the primary vector to humans of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (hereinafter referred to as B. burgdorferi), the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis in North America. In the present study, we sought to determine if infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi in I. pacificus nymphs and the density of infected nymphs differ between dense-woodland types within Mendocino County, California, and to develop and evaluate a spatially-explicit model for density of infected nymphs in dense woodlands within this high-incidence area for Lyme borreliosis. In total, 4.9% (264) of 5431 I. pacificus nymphs tested for the presence of B. burgdorferi were infected. Among the 78 sampling sites, infection prevalence ranged from 0 to 22% and density of infected nymphs from 0 to 2.04 per 100 m(2). Infection prevalence was highest in woodlands dominated by hardwoods (6.2%) and lowest for redwood (1.9%) and coastal pine (0%). Density of infected nymphs also was higher in hardwood-dominated woodlands than in conifer-dominated ones that included redwood or pine. Our spatial risk model, which yielded an overall accuracy of 85%, indicated that warmer areas with less variation between maximum and minimum monthly water vapor in the air were more likely to include woodlands with elevated acarological risk of exposure to infected nymphs. We found that 37% of dense woodlands in the county were predicted to pose an elevated risk of exposure to infected nymphs, and that 94% of the dense-woodland areas that were predicted to harbor elevated densities of infected nymphs were located on privately-owned land. PMID:20532183

  14. A spatially-explicit model of acarological risk of exposure to Borrelia burgdorferi-infected Ixodes pacificus nymphs in northwestern California based on woodland type, temperature, and water vapor

    PubMed Central

    Eisen, Rebecca J.; Eisen, Lars; Girard, Yvette A.; Fedorova, Natalia; Mun, Jeomhee; Slikas, Beth; Leonhard, Sarah; Kitron, Uriel; Lane, Robert S.

    2010-01-01

    In the far-western United States, the nymphal stage of the western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus, has been implicated as the primary vector to humans of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (hereinafter referred to as B. burgdorferi), the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis in North America. In the present study, we sought to determine if infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi in I. pacificus nymphs and the density of infected nymphs differ between dense-woodland types within Mendocino County, California, and to develop and evaluate a spatially-explicit model for density of infected nymphs in dense woodlands within this high-incidence area for Lyme borreliosis. In total, 4.9% (264) of 5431 I. pacificus nymphs tested for the presence of B. burgdorferi were infected. Among the 78 sampling sites, infection prevalence ranged from 0 to 22% and density of infected nymphs from 0 to 2.04 per 100 m2. Infection prevalence was highest in woodlands dominated by hardwoods (6.2%) and lowest for redwood (1.9%) and coastal pine (0%). Density of infected nymphs also was higher in hardwood-dominated woodlands than in conifer-dominated ones that included redwood or pine. Our spatial risk model, which yielded an overall accuracy of 85%, indicated that warmer areas with less variation between maximum and minimum monthly water vapor in the air were more likely to include woodlands with elevated acarological risk of exposure to infected nymphs. We found that 37% of dense woodlands in the county were predicted to pose an elevated risk of exposure to infected nymphs, and that 94% of the dense-woodland areas that were predicted to harbor elevated densities of infected nymphs were located on privately-owned land. PMID:20532183

  15. Spatially explicit modeling of annual and seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and Northeastern California—An updated decision-support tool for management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Sanchez-chopitea, Erika; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-05-20

    Successful adaptive management hinges largely upon integrating new and improved sources of information as they become available. As a timely example of this tenet, we updated a management decision support tool that was previously developed for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereinafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations in Nevada and California. Specifically, recently developed spatially explicit habitat maps derived from empirical data played a key role in the conservation of this species facing listing under the Endangered Species Act. This report provides an updated process for mapping relative habitat suitability and management categories for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California (Coates and others, 2014, 2016). These updates include: (1) adding radio and GPS telemetry locations from sage-grouse monitored at multiple sites during 2014 to the original location dataset beginning in 1998; (2) integrating output from high resolution maps (1–2 m2) of sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover as covariates in resource selection models; (3) modifying the spatial extent of the analyses to match newly available vegetation layers; (4) explicit modeling of relative habitat suitability during three seasons (spring, summer, winter) that corresponded to critical life history periods for sage-grouse (breeding, brood-rearing, over-wintering); (5) accounting for differences in habitat availability between more mesic sagebrush steppe communities in the northern part of the study area and drier Great Basin sagebrush in more southerly regions by categorizing continuous region-wide surfaces of habitat suitability index (HSI) with independent locations falling within two hydrological zones; (6) integrating the three seasonal maps into a composite map of annual relative habitat suitability; (7) deriving updated land management categories based on previously determined cut-points for intersections of habitat suitability and an updated index of sage

  16. Electromagnetic radiation under explicit symmetry breaking.

    PubMed

    Sinha, Dhiraj; Amaratunga, Gehan A J

    2015-04-10

    We report our observation that radiation from a system of accelerating charges is possible only when there is explicit breaking of symmetry in the electric field in space within the spatial configuration of the radiating system. Under symmetry breaking, current within an enclosed area around the radiating structure is not conserved at a certain instant of time resulting in radiation in free space. Electromagnetic radiation from dielectric and piezoelectric material based resonators are discussed in this context. Finally, it is argued that symmetry of a resonator of any form can be explicitly broken to create a radiating antenna.

  17. Electromagnetic radiation under explicit symmetry breaking.

    PubMed

    Sinha, Dhiraj; Amaratunga, Gehan A J

    2015-04-10

    We report our observation that radiation from a system of accelerating charges is possible only when there is explicit breaking of symmetry in the electric field in space within the spatial configuration of the radiating system. Under symmetry breaking, current within an enclosed area around the radiating structure is not conserved at a certain instant of time resulting in radiation in free space. Electromagnetic radiation from dielectric and piezoelectric material based resonators are discussed in this context. Finally, it is argued that symmetry of a resonator of any form can be explicitly broken to create a radiating antenna. PMID:25910163

  18. Electromagnetic Radiation under Explicit Symmetry Breaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinha, Dhiraj; Amaratunga, Gehan A. J.

    2015-04-01

    We report our observation that radiation from a system of accelerating charges is possible only when there is explicit breaking of symmetry in the electric field in space within the spatial configuration of the radiating system. Under symmetry breaking, current within an enclosed area around the radiating structure is not conserved at a certain instant of time resulting in radiation in free space. Electromagnetic radiation from dielectric and piezoelectric material based resonators are discussed in this context. Finally, it is argued that symmetry of a resonator of any form can be explicitly broken to create a radiating antenna.

  19. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  20. Optically and elastically assembled plasmonic nanoantennae for spatially resolved characterization of chemical composition in soft matter systems using surface enhanced spontaneous and stimulated Raman scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mundoor, Haridas; Lee, Taewoo; Gann, Derek G.; Ackerman, Paul J.; Senyuk, Bohdan; van de Lagemaat, Jao; Smalyukh, Ivan I.

    2014-08-01

    We present a method to locally probe spatially varying chemical composition of soft matter systems by use of optically controlled and elastically self-assembled plasmonic nanoantennae. Disc-shaped metal particles with sharp irregular edges are optically trapped, manipulated, and assembled into small clusters to provide a strong enhancement of the Raman scattering signal coming from the sample regions around and in-between these particles. As the particles are reassembled and spatially translated by computer-controlled laser tweezers, we probe chemical composition as a function of spatial coordinates. This allows us to reliably detect tiny quantities of organic molecules, such as capping ligands present on various nanoparticles, as well as to probe chemical composition of the interior of liquid crystal defect cores that can be filled with, for example, polymer chains. The strong electromagnetic field enhancement of optically manipulated nanoparticles' rough surfaces is demonstrated in different forms of spectroscopy and microscopy, including enhanced spontaneous Raman scattering, coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering, and stimulated Raman scattering imaging modes.

  1. Explicit Fourier wavefield operators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferguson, R. J.; Margrave, G. F.

    2006-04-01

    Explicit wavefield extrapolators are based on direct analytic mathematical formulae that express the output as an extrapolation operator acting on the input, while implicit methods usually require the calculation of the numerical inverse of a matrix to obtain the output. Typically, explicit methods are faster than implicit methods, and they often give more insight into the physics of the wave propagation, but they often suffer from instability. Four different explicit extrapolators based on Fourier theory are presented and analysed. They are: PS (ordinary phase shift), GPSPI (generalized phase shift plus interpolation), NSPS (non-stationary phase shift) and SNPS (symmetric non-stationary phase shift). A formal proof is given that NSPS in a direction orthogonal to the velocity gradient is the mathematical adjoint process to GPSPI in the opposite direction. This motivates the construction of SNPS that combines NSPS and GPSPI in a symmetric fashion. This symmetry (under interchange of input and output lateral coordinates) is required by reciprocity arguments. PS and SNPS are symmetric while NSPS and GPSPI are not. A numerical stability study using SVD (singular value decomposition) shows that all of these extrapolators can become unstable for strong lateral velocity gradients. Unstable operators allow amplitudes to grow non-physically in a recursion. Stability is enhanced by introducing a small (~3 per cent) imaginary component to the velocities. This causes a numerical attenuation that tends to stabilize the operators but does not address the cause of the instability. For the velocity model studied (a very challenging case) GPSPI and NSPS have exactly the same instability while SNPS is always more stable. Instability manifests in a complicated way as a function of extrapolation step size, frequency, velocity gradient, and strength of numerical attenuation. The SNPS operator can be stabilized over a wide range of conditions with considerably less attenuation than is

  2. Spatially explicit modeling of annual and seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and Northeastern California—An updated decision-support tool for management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Sanchez-chopitea, Erika; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-05-20

    Successful adaptive management hinges largely upon integrating new and improved sources of information as they become available. As a timely example of this tenet, we updated a management decision support tool that was previously developed for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereinafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations in Nevada and California. Specifically, recently developed spatially explicit habitat maps derived from empirical data played a key role in the conservation of this species facing listing under the Endangered Species Act. This report provides an updated process for mapping relative habitat suitability and management categories for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California (Coates and others, 2014, 2016). These updates include: (1) adding radio and GPS telemetry locations from sage-grouse monitored at multiple sites during 2014 to the original location dataset beginning in 1998; (2) integrating output from high resolution maps (1–2 m2) of sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover as covariates in resource selection models; (3) modifying the spatial extent of the analyses to match newly available vegetation layers; (4) explicit modeling of relative habitat suitability during three seasons (spring, summer, winter) that corresponded to critical life history periods for sage-grouse (breeding, brood-rearing, over-wintering); (5) accounting for differences in habitat availability between more mesic sagebrush steppe communities in the northern part of the study area and drier Great Basin sagebrush in more southerly regions by categorizing continuous region-wide surfaces of habitat suitability index (HSI) with independent locations falling within two hydrological zones; (6) integrating the three seasonal maps into a composite map of annual relative habitat suitability; (7) deriving updated land management categories based on previously determined cut-points for intersections of habitat suitability and an updated index of sage

  3. Explicit superconic curves.

    PubMed

    Cho, Sunggoo

    2016-09-01

    Conics and Cartesian ovals are extremely important curves in various fields of science. In addition, aspheric curves based on conics are useful in optical design. Superconic curves, recently suggested by Greynolds, are extensions of both conics and Cartesian ovals and have been applied to optical design. However, they are not extensions of aspheric curves based on conics. In this work, we investigate another type of superconic curves. These superconic curves are extensions of not only conics and Cartesian ovals but also aspheric curves based on conics. Moreover, these are represented in explicit form, while Greynolds's superconic curves are in implicit form. PMID:27607506

  4. The Relationship between Spatial Visualization Ability and Students' Ability to Model 3D Objects from Engineering Assembly Drawings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Branoff, T. J.; Dobelis, M.

    2012-01-01

    Spatial abilities have been used as a predictor of success in several engineering and technology disciplines (Strong & Smith, 2001). In engineering graphics courses, scores on spatial tests have also been used to predict success (Adanez & Velasco, 2002; Leopold, Gorska, & Sorby, 2001). Other studies have shown that some type of intervention,…

  5. Spatial regulation of Aurora A activity during mitotic spindle assembly requires RHAMM to correctly localize TPX2

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Helen; Mohan, Pooja; Jiang, Jihong; Nemirovsky, Oksana; He, Daniel; Fleisch, Markus C; Niederacher, Dieter; Pilarski, Linda M; Lim, C James; Maxwell, Christopher A

    2014-01-01

    Construction of a mitotic spindle requires biochemical pathways to assemble spindle microtubules and structural proteins to organize these microtubules into a bipolar array. Through a complex with dynein, the receptor for hyaluronan-mediated motility (RHAMM) cross-links mitotic microtubules to provide structural support, maintain spindle integrity, and correctly orient the mitotic spindle. Here, we locate RHAMM to sites of microtubule assembly at centrosomes and non-centrosome sites near kinetochores and demonstrate that RHAMM is required for the activation of Aurora kinase A. Silencing of RHAMM delays the kinetics of spindle assembly, mislocalizes targeting protein for XKlp2 (TPX2), and attenuates the localized activation of Aurora kinase A with a consequent reduction in mitotic spindle length. The RHAMM–TPX2 complex requires a C-terminal basic leucine zipper in RHAMM and a domain that includes the nuclear localization signal in TPX2. Together, our findings identify RHAMM as a critical regulator for Aurora kinase A signaling and suggest that RHAMM ensures bipolar spindle assembly and mitotic progression through the integration of biochemical and structural pathways. PMID:24875404

  6. Spatially Modulating Interfacial Properties of Transparent Conductive Oxides: Patterning Work Function with Phosphonic Acid Self-Assembled Monolayers

    SciTech Connect

    Knesting, Kristina M.; Hotchkiss, Peter J.; MacLeod, Bradley A.; Marder, Seth R.; Ginger, David S.

    2011-09-29

    The interface between an organic semiconductor and a transparent conducting oxide is crucial to the performance of organic optoelectronics. We use microcontact printing to pattern pentafluorobenzyl phosphonic acid self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) on indium tin oxide (ITO). We obtain high-fidelity patterns with sharply defined edges and with large work function contrast (comparable to that obtained from phosphonic acid SAMs deposited from solution).

  7. Directed surface assembly of 4-(chloromethyl)phenyltrichlorosilane: self-polymerization within spatially confined sites of Si(111) viewed by atomic force microscopy.

    PubMed

    Tian, Tian; LeJeune, Zorabel M; Garno, Jayne C

    2013-06-01

    The self-polymerization of 4-chloromethylphenyltrichlorosilane (CMPS) was studied within spatially confined nanoholes on Si(111) using atomic force microscopy (AFM). Surface platforms of nanoholes were fabricated within a film of octadecyltrichlorosilane using immersion particle lithography. A heating step was developed to temporarily solder the silica mesospheres to the surface, to enable sustained immersion of mesoparticle masks in solvent solutions for the particle lithography protocol. Substrates with a film of mesospheres were heated briefly to anneal the particles to the surface, followed by a rinsing step with sonication to remove the silica beads to generate nanopores within an octadecyltrichlorosilane (OTS) film. Nanopatterned surface templates were immersed in CMPS solutions and removed at different time points to monitor the successive growth of nanostructures over time. Analysis of AFM images after progressive exposure of the nanoholes to solutions of CMPS provided quantitative information and details of the surface self-assembly reaction. Pillar nanostructures of CMPS with different heights and diameters were produced exclusively within the exposed areas of the substrates. Throughout the reaction, the surrounding matrix of OTS-passivated substrate did not evidence growth of CMPS; the surface assembly of CMPS was strictly confined within the nanopores. The diameter of the CMPS nanostructures grew to match the initial sizes of the confined areas of Si(111) but did not spread out beyond the edges of the OTS nanocontainers. However, the vertical growth of columns was affected by the initial size of the sites of uncovered substrate, evidencing a direct correspondence; larger sites produced taller structures, and correspondingly the growth of shorter structures was observed within smaller nanoholes. The heights of CMPS nanostructures indicate that multilayers were formed, with taller columns generated after longer immersion times. These experiments offer

  8. The Explicit Teaching of Reading.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hancock, Joelie, Ed.

    Exploring the explicit teaching of reading, this book is the result of a group of Australian teachers who took a closer look at their teaching so that they could be clearer to their kindergarten through middle-school students. Chapter 1 is based on a presentation at a Saturday inservice program on explicit teaching. Chapters 2-9 were written by…

  9. Intersection Type Systems and Explicit Substitutions Calculi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ventura, Daniel Lima; Ayala-Rincón, Mauricio; Kamareddine, Fairouz

    The λ-calculus with de Bruijn indices, called λ dB , assembles each α-class of λ-terms into a unique term, using indices instead of variable names. Intersection types provide finitary type polymorphism satisfying important properties like principal typing, which allows the type system to include features such as data abstraction (modularity) and separate compilation. To be closer to computation and to simplify the formalisation of the atomic operations involved in β-contractions, several explicit substitution calculi were developed most of which are written with de Bruijn indices. Although untyped and simply types versions of explicit substitution calculi are well investigated, versions with more elaborate type systems (e.g., with intersection types) are not. In previous work, we presented a version for λ dB of an intersection type system originally introduced to characterise principal typings for β-normal forms and provided the characterisation for this version. In this work we introduce intersection type systems for two explicit substitution calculi: the λσ and the λs e . These type system are based on a type system for λ dB and satisfy the basic property of subject reduction, which guarantees the preservation of types during computations.

  10. Explicit Substitutions and All That

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ayala-Rincon, Mauricio; Munoz, Cesar; Busnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Explicit substitution calculi are extensions of the Lambda-calculus where the substitution mechanism is internalized into the theory. This feature makes them suitable for implementation and theoretical study of logic-based tools such as strongly typed programming languages and proof assistant systems. In this paper we explore new developments on two of the most successful styles of explicit substitution calculi: the lambda(sigma)- and lambda(s(e))-calculi.

  11. Explicit Substitutions and All That

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ayala-Rincon, Mauricio; Munoz, Cesar

    2000-01-01

    Explicit substitution calculi are extensions of the lambda-calculus where the substitution mechanism is internalized into the theory. This feature makes them suitable for implementation and theoretical study of logic-based tools such as strongly typed programming languages and proof assistant systems. In this paper we explore new developments on two of the most successful styles of explicit substitution calculi: the lambda sigma- and lambda S(e)-calculi.

  12. Surface presentation of biochemical cues for stem cell expansion - Spatial distribution of growth factors and self-assembly of extracellular matrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xingyu

    Despite its great potential applications to stem cell technology and tissue engineering, matrix presentation of biochemical cues such as growth factors and extracellular matrix (ECM) components remains undefined. This is largely due to the difficulty in preserving the bioactivities of signaling molecules and in controlling the spatial distribution, cellular accessibility, molecular orientation and intermolecular assembly of the biochemical cues. This dissertation comprises of two parts that focuses on understanding surface presentation of a growth factor and ECM components, respectively. This dissertation addresses two fundamental questions in stem cell biology using two biomaterials platforms. How does nanoscale distribution of growth factor impact signaling activation and cellular behaviors of adult neural stem cells? How does ECM self-assembly impact human embryonic stem cell survival and proliferation? The first question was addressed by the design of a novel quantitative platform that allows the control of FGF-2 molecular presentation locally as either monomers or clusters when tethered to a polymeric substrate. This substrate-tethered FGF-2 enables a switch-like signaling activation in response to dose titration of FGF-2. This is in contrast to a continuous MAPK activation pattern elicited by soluble FGF-2. Consequently, cell proliferation, and spreading were also consistent with this FGF-2 does-response pattern. We demonstrated that the combination of FGF-2 concentration and its cluster size, rather than concentration alone, serves as the determinants to govern its biological effect on neural stem cells. The second part of this dissertation was inspired by the challenge that hESCs have extremely low clonal efficiency and hESC survival is critically dependent on cell substrate adhesion. We postulated that ECM integrity is a critical factor in preventing hESC anchorage-dependent apoptosis, and that the matrix for feeder-free culture need to be properly

  13. Community assembly and coexistence in communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

    PubMed Central

    Vályi, Kriszta; Mardhiah, Ulfah; Rillig, Matthias C; Hempel, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are asexual, obligately symbiotic fungi with unique morphology and genomic structure, which occupy a dual niche, that is, the soil and the host root. Consequently, the direct adoption of models for community assembly developed for other organism groups is not evident. In this paper we adapted modern coexistence and assembly theory to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. We review research on the elements of community assembly and coexistence of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, highlighting recent studies using molecular methods. By addressing several points from the individual to the community level where the application of modern community ecology terms runs into problems when arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are concerned, we aim to account for these special circumstances from a mycocentric point of view. We suggest that hierarchical spatial structure of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities should be explicitly taken into account in future studies. The conceptual framework we develop here for arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi is also adaptable for other host-associated microbial communities. PMID:27093046

  14. Community assembly and coexistence in communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi.

    PubMed

    Vályi, Kriszta; Mardhiah, Ulfah; Rillig, Matthias C; Hempel, Stefan

    2016-10-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are asexual, obligately symbiotic fungi with unique morphology and genomic structure, which occupy a dual niche, that is, the soil and the host root. Consequently, the direct adoption of models for community assembly developed for other organism groups is not evident. In this paper we adapted modern coexistence and assembly theory to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. We review research on the elements of community assembly and coexistence of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, highlighting recent studies using molecular methods. By addressing several points from the individual to the community level where the application of modern community ecology terms runs into problems when arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are concerned, we aim to account for these special circumstances from a mycocentric point of view. We suggest that hierarchical spatial structure of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities should be explicitly taken into account in future studies. The conceptual framework we develop here for arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi is also adaptable for other host-associated microbial communities.

  15. Stay off the motorway: Resolving the pre-recruitment life history dynamics of the European anchovy in the SW Mediterranean through a spatially-explicit individual-based model (SEIBM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catalán, Ignacio A.; Macías, Diego; Solé, Jordi; Ospina-Álvarez, Andrés; Ruiz, Javier

    2013-04-01

    We explore the underlying mechanisms of the early life history dynamics of the European anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus, in the SW Mediterranean. By using a 3D ROMS hydrodynamic model coupled to an individual-based model (IBM) of the larval stages of the European anchovy, we tested the following hypotheses: (1) the plausible effective spawning zones (those generating late larvae to the known nursery grounds) are mainly found in the vicinity of Malaga Bay, as suggested by published empirical data; (2) the observed, back-calculated growth of larvae sampled in the nursery grounds can be reasonably simulated by a simple temperature-dependent growth model; and (3) the inclusion of biological behavior in the IBM significantly improves the match between the observed and modeled late-larval recruitment and/or growth patterns. We performed simulations for the peak spawning season in 2008, for which survey data were available, and an average climatological run. Hypothesis 1 was accepted, whereas hypothesis 2 resulted in a good imitation of anchovy growth only after 10 days post-hatch. The inclusion of an empirically derived equation for egg buoyancy in the model (hypothesis 3) resulted in a slight improvement of the model of late-larval recruitment patterns. Finally, our model was used to explore possible retention-based nursery areas in the whole Alboran Sea. Our simulations showed to agree well with the existing data both in the European and in the African coast and confer the physics a dominant role in shaping the spatial dynamics of early life stages of anchovy in the area.

  16. The Complexity of Explicit Constructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santhanam, Rahul

    The existence of extremal combinatorial objects, such as Ramsey graphs and expanders, is often shown using the probabilistic method. It is folklore that pseudo-random generators can be used to obtain explicit constructions of these objects, if the test that the object is extremal can be implemented in polynomial time. In this talk, we pose several questions geared towards initiating a structural approach to the relationship between extremal combinatorics and computational complexity. One motivation for such an approach is to understand better why circuit lower bounds are hard. Another is to formalize connections between the two areas, so that progress in one leads automatically to progress in the other.

  17. Spatially explicit trends in the global conservation status of vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, Ana S L; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Chanson, Janice; Cox, Neil; Hoffmann, Michael; Stuart, Simon N

    2014-01-01

    The world's governments have committed to preventing the extinction of threatened species and improving their conservation status by 2020. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed across space, and neither are the drivers of its decline, and so different regions face very different challenges. Here, we quantify the contribution of regions and countries towards recent global trends in vertebrate conservation status (as measured by the Red List Index), to guide action towards the 2020 target. We found that>50% of the global deterioration in the conservation status of birds, mammals and amphibians is concentrated in <1% of the surface area, 39/1098 ecoregions (4%) and eight/195 countries (4%) - Australia, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and the United States. These countries hold a third of global diversity in these vertebrate groups, partially explaining why they concentrate most of the losses. Yet, other megadiverse countries - most notably Brazil (responsible for 10% of species but just 1% of deterioration), plus India and Madagascar - performed better in conserving their share of global vertebrate diversity. Very few countries, mostly island nations (e.g. Cook Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tonga), have achieved net improvements. Per capita wealth does not explain these patterns, with two of the richest countries - United States and Australia - fairing conspicuously poorly. Different countries were affected by different combinations of threats. Reducing global rates of biodiversity loss will require investment in the regions and countries with the highest responsibility for the world's biodiversity, focusing on conserving those species and areas most in peril and on reducing the drivers with the highest impacts.

  18. Spatially Explicit Life Cycle Assessment of Biofuel Feedstock Production

    EPA Science Inventory

    Biofuels derived from renewable resources have gained increased research and development priority due to increasing energy demand and national security concerns. In the US, the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 mandated the annual production of 56.8 billion L of...

  19. Spatially-explicit and spectral soil carbon modeling in Florida

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Profound shifts have occurred over the last three centuries in which human actions have become the main driver to global environmental change. In this new epoch, the Anthropocene, human-driven changes such as population growth, climate and land use change, are pushing the Earth system well outside i...

  20. SPATIALLY EXPLICIT VEGETATION MODELS: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? (R825796)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  1. Spatially Explicit Trends in the Global Conservation Status of Vertebrates

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Ana S. L.; Brooks, Thomas M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Chanson, Janice; Cox, Neil; Hoffmann, Michael; Stuart, Simon N.

    2014-01-01

    The world's governments have committed to preventing the extinction of threatened species and improving their conservation status by 2020. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed across space, and neither are the drivers of its decline, and so different regions face very different challenges. Here, we quantify the contribution of regions and countries towards recent global trends in vertebrate conservation status (as measured by the Red List Index), to guide action towards the 2020 target. We found that>50% of the global deterioration in the conservation status of birds, mammals and amphibians is concentrated in <1% of the surface area, 39/1098 ecoregions (4%) and eight/195 countries (4%) – Australia, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and the United States. These countries hold a third of global diversity in these vertebrate groups, partially explaining why they concentrate most of the losses. Yet, other megadiverse countries – most notably Brazil (responsible for 10% of species but just 1% of deterioration), plus India and Madagascar – performed better in conserving their share of global vertebrate diversity. Very few countries, mostly island nations (e.g. Cook Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tonga), have achieved net improvements. Per capita wealth does not explain these patterns, with two of the richest countries – United States and Australia – fairing conspicuously poorly. Different countries were affected by different combinations of threats. Reducing global rates of biodiversity loss will require investment in the regions and countries with the highest responsibility for the world's biodiversity, focusing on conserving those species and areas most in peril and on reducing the drivers with the highest impacts. PMID:25426636

  2. Spatially explicit trends in the global conservation status of vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, Ana S L; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Chanson, Janice; Cox, Neil; Hoffmann, Michael; Stuart, Simon N

    2014-01-01

    The world's governments have committed to preventing the extinction of threatened species and improving their conservation status by 2020. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed across space, and neither are the drivers of its decline, and so different regions face very different challenges. Here, we quantify the contribution of regions and countries towards recent global trends in vertebrate conservation status (as measured by the Red List Index), to guide action towards the 2020 target. We found that>50% of the global deterioration in the conservation status of birds, mammals and amphibians is concentrated in <1% of the surface area, 39/1098 ecoregions (4%) and eight/195 countries (4%) - Australia, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and the United States. These countries hold a third of global diversity in these vertebrate groups, partially explaining why they concentrate most of the losses. Yet, other megadiverse countries - most notably Brazil (responsible for 10% of species but just 1% of deterioration), plus India and Madagascar - performed better in conserving their share of global vertebrate diversity. Very few countries, mostly island nations (e.g. Cook Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tonga), have achieved net improvements. Per capita wealth does not explain these patterns, with two of the richest countries - United States and Australia - fairing conspicuously poorly. Different countries were affected by different combinations of threats. Reducing global rates of biodiversity loss will require investment in the regions and countries with the highest responsibility for the world's biodiversity, focusing on conserving those species and areas most in peril and on reducing the drivers with the highest impacts. PMID:25426636

  3. Understanding Models: An Explicit Path

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wade, P. D.

    2003-12-01

    Models consist of representations of the "real" world \\(Giere, 1988\\). Visual models, including 3-D representations, diagrams, images and photos are a dominant feature of science courses. However, the use and limitations of models is seldom explicitly taught. Results from a survey assessing students' 1. knowledge of what models are, 2. ability to understand what a model illustrates as well as describe its specific parts, and 3. ability to discuss the use and limitations \\(or distortions\\) of a model, suggest students' do not have a fundamental understanding of models. In an undergraduate Earth systems course and a science methods education course an explicit instructional approach is used which enhances students' abilities to understand and use models. The approach requires students to; 1. describe each component of a given model, 2. discuss what the model illustrates, 3. describe how the model is used and 4. discuss the limitations of the model. This approach aids the instructor in targeting specific areas of weakness in students' abilities to use models. Using this approach, students' abilities to understand and use models has increased. Additionally preservice teachers have an increased awareness that models can be misinterpreted by students which can lead to misconceptions.

  4. EdgeMaps: visualizing explicit and implicit relations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dörk, Marian; Carpendale, Sheelagh; Williamson, Carey

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we introduce EdgeMaps as a new method for integrating the visualization of explicit and implicit data relations. Explicit relations are specific connections between entities already present in a given dataset, while implicit relations are derived from multidimensional data based on shared properties and similarity measures. Many datasets include both types of relations, which are often difficult to represent together in information visualizations. Node-link diagrams typically focus on explicit data connections, while not incorporating implicit similarities between entities. Multi-dimensional scaling considers similarities between items, however, explicit links between nodes are not displayed. In contrast, EdgeMaps visualize both implicit and explicit relations by combining and complementing spatialization and graph drawing techniques. As a case study for this approach we chose a dataset of philosophers, their interests, influences, and birthdates. By introducing the limitation of activating only one node at a time, interesting visual patterns emerge that resemble the aesthetics of fireworks and waves. We argue that the interactive exploration of these patterns may allow the viewer to grasp the structure of a graph better than complex node-link visualizations.

  5. "Assembling" the Ideal Learner: The School Assembly as Regulatory Ritual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silbert, Patti; Jacklin, Heather

    2015-01-01

    "School assemblies" are rituals that celebrate and mark the school community. They carry messages of allegiance and belonging that are disseminated both verbally and nonverbally. Although verbal messages are explicitly stated, nonverbal messages are conveyed through subjection to habits, rules, and orders (Foucault 1977) and are…

  6. Implicit-explicit Godunov schemes for unsteady gas dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, J.P.

    1992-12-31

    Hybrid implicit-explicit schemes are developed for Eulerian hydrodynamics in one and two space dimensions. The hybridization is a continuous switch and operates on each characteristic field separately. The explicit scheme is a version of the second order Godunov scheme; the implicit method is only first order accurate in time but leads to second order accurate steady states. This methodology is developed for linear advection, nonlinear scalar problems, hyperbolic constant co-efficient systems, and for gas dynamics. Truncation error and stability analyses are done for the linear cases. This implicit-explicit strategy is intended for problems with spatially or temporally localized stiffness in wave speeds. By stiffness we mean that the high speed modes contain very little energy, yet they determine the explicit time step through the CFL condition. For hydrodynamics, the main examples are nearly incompressible flow, flows with embedded boundary layers, and magnetohydrodynamics; the latter two examples are not treated here. Several numerical results are presented to demonstrate this method. These include, stable numerical shocks at very high CFL numbers, one-dimensional flow in a duct, and low Mach number shear layers.

  7. Implicit-explicit evolution of single black holes

    SciTech Connect

    Lau, Stephen R.; Lovelace, Geoffrey; Pfeiffer, Harald P.

    2011-10-15

    Numerical simulations of binary black holes - an important predictive tool for the detection of gravitational waves - are computationally expensive, especially for binaries with high mass ratios or with rapidly spinning constituent holes. Existing codes for evolving binary black holes rely on explicit time-stepping methods, for which the time-step size is limited by the smallest spatial scale through the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy condition. Binary inspiral typically involves spatial scales (the spatial resolution required by a small or rapidly spinning hole) which are orders of magnitude smaller than the relevant (orbital, precession, and radiation-reaction) time scales characterizing the inspiral. Therefore, in explicit evolutions of binary black holes, the time-step size is typically orders of magnitude smaller than the relevant physical time scales. Implicit time-stepping methods allow for larger time steps, and they often reduce the total computational cost (without significant loss of accuracy) for problems dominated by spatial rather than temporal error, such as for binary-black-hole inspiral in corotating coordinates. However, fully implicit methods can be difficult to implement for nonlinear evolution systems like the Einstein equations. Therefore, in this paper we explore implicit-explicit (IMEX) methods and use them for the first time to evolve black-hole spacetimes. Specifically, as a first step toward IMEX evolution of a full binary-black-hole spacetime, we develop an IMEX algorithm for the generalized harmonic formulation of the Einstein equations and use this algorithm to evolve stationary and perturbed single-black-hole spacetimes. Numerical experiments explore the stability and computational efficiency of our method.

  8. Implicit and Explicit Instruction of Spelling Rules

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemper, M. J.; Verhoeven, L.; Bosman, A. M. T.

    2012-01-01

    The study aimed to compare the differential effectiveness of explicit and implicit instruction of two Dutch spelling rules. Students with and without spelling disabilities were instructed a spelling rule either implicitly or explicitly in two experiments. Effects were tested in a pretest-intervention-posttest control group design. Experiment 1…

  9. Implicit and Explicit Exercise and Sedentary Identity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, Tanya R.; Strachan, Shaelyn M.

    2012-01-01

    We examined the relationship between implicit and explicit "exerciser" and "sedentary" self-identity when activated by stereotypes. Undergraduate participants (N = 141) wrote essays about university students who either liked to exercise or engage in sedentary activities. This was followed by an implicit identity task and an explicit measure of…

  10. Thinking Styles in Implicit and Explicit Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xie, Qiuzhi; Gao, Xiangping; King, Ronnel B.

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated whether individual differences in thinking styles influence explicit and implicit learning. Eighty-seven university students in China participated in this study. Results indicated that performance in the explicit learning condition was positively associated with Type I thinking styles (i.e. legislative and liberal styles)…

  11. A theory of implicit and explicit knowledge.

    PubMed

    Dienes, Z; Perner, J

    1999-10-01

    The implicit-explicit distinction is applied to knowledge representations. Knowledge is taken to be an attitude towards a proposition which is true. The proposition itself predicates a property to some entity. A number of ways in which knowledge can be implicit or explicit emerge. If a higher aspect is known explicitly then each lower one must also be known explicitly. This partial hierarchy reduces the number of ways in which knowledge can be explicit. In the most important type of implicit knowledge, representations merely reflect the property of objects or events without predicating them of any particular entity. The clearest cases of explicit knowledge of a fact are representations of one's own attitude of knowing that fact. These distinctions are discussed in their relationship to similar distinctions such as procedural-declarative, conscious-unconscious, verbalizable-nonverbalizable, direct-indirect tests, and automatic-voluntary control. This is followed by an outline of how these distinctions can be used to integrate and relate the often divergent uses of the implicit-explicit distinction in different research areas. We illustrate this for visual perception, memory, cognitive development, and artificial grammar learning.

  12. Material model library for explicit numerical codes

    SciTech Connect

    Hofmann, R.; Dial, B.W.

    1982-08-01

    A material model logic structure has been developed which is useful for most explicit finite-difference and explicit finite-element Lagrange computer codes. This structure has been implemented and tested in the STEALTH codes to provide an example for researchers who wish to implement it in generically similar codes. In parallel with these models, material parameter libraries have been created for the implemented models for materials which are often needed in DoD applications.

  13. Spatial patterning of colloidal nanoparticle-based thin film by a combinative technique of layer-by-layer self-assembly and lithography.

    PubMed

    Hua, Feng; Lvov, Yuri; Cui, Tianhong

    2002-01-01

    A novel approach to generating clear patterns of different types of nanoparticles is presented in this paper. Nanoassembly in the vertical direction was combined with planar micropatterning. This provides industrial applications of a popular layer-by-layer method to produce multilayers of polymers, nanoparticles, and proteins organized on the nanometer scale. A thin film of organic polystyrene spheres was first coated on the pretreated silicon wafer with layer-by-layer self-assembly. Then a layer of aluminium was deposited on the thin film. A layer of positive photoresist was spun on the surface of aluminum and then illuminated with UV light. The exposed parts of the resist were removed and windows were opened above the aluminum. The subsequent etching removed exposed aluminium and left a polystyrene thin film in the open windows. Oxygen plasma was employed to remove the polystyrene thin film on the bottom. Eventually, aluminum and photoresist were removed and only the desired pattern remained. This approach was also employed for the patterning of the silica nanoparticle thin film, a widely used material in various applications. In this case, wet etching was demonstrated to etch silica particles. A scanning electron microscope was used to produce the image of the pattern.

  14. Joint assembly

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Andrew (Inventor); Punnoose, Andrew (Inventor); Strausser, Katherine (Inventor); Parikh, Neil (Inventor)

    2010-01-01

    A joint assembly is provided which includes a drive assembly and a swivel mechanism. The drive assembly features a motor operatively associated with a plurality of drive shafts for driving auxiliary elements, and a plurality of swivel shafts for pivoting the drive assembly. The swivel mechanism engages the swivel shafts and has a fixable element that may be attached to a foundation. The swivel mechanism is adapted to cooperate with the swivel shafts to pivot the drive assembly with at least two degrees of freedom relative to the foundation. The joint assembly allows for all components to remain encased in a tight, compact, and sealed package, making it ideal for space, exploratory, and commercial applications.

  15. Predictive models of implicit and explicit attitudes.

    PubMed

    Perugini, Marco

    2005-03-01

    Explicit attitudes have long been assumed to be central factors influencing behaviour. A recent stream of studies has shown that implicit attitudes, typically measured with the Implicit Association Test (IAT), can also predict a significant range of behaviours. This contribution is focused on testing different predictive models of implicit and explicit attitudes. In particular, three main models can be derived from the literature: (a) additive (the two types of attitudes explain different portion of variance in the criterion), (b) double dissociation (implicit attitudes predict spontaneous whereas explicit attitudes predict deliberative behaviour), and (c) multiplicative (implicit and explicit attitudes interact in influencing behaviour). This paper reports two studies testing these models. The first study (N = 48) is about smoking behaviour, whereas the second study (N = 109) is about preferences for snacks versus fruit. In the first study, the multiplicative model is supported, whereas the double dissociation model is supported in the second study. The results are discussed in light of the importance of focusing on different patterns of prediction when investigating the directive influence of implicit and explicit attitudes on behaviours. PMID:15901390

  16. Accelerating an iterative process by explicit annihilation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jespersen, D. C.; Buning, P. G.

    1985-01-01

    A slowly convergent stationary iterative process can be accelerated by explicitly annihilating (i.e., eliminating) the dominant eigenvector component of the error. The dominant eigenvalue or complex pair of eigenvalues can be estimated from the solution during the iteration. The corresponding eigenvector or complex pair of eigenvectors can then be annihilated by applying an explicit Richardson process over the basic iterative method. This can be done entirely in real arithmetic by analytically combining the complex conjugate annihilation steps. The technique is applied to an implicit algorithm for the calculation of two dimensional steady transonic flow over a circular cylinder using the equations of compressible inviscid gas dynamics. This demonstrates the use of explicit annihilation on a nonlinear problem.

  17. Accelerating an iterative process by explicit annihilation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jespersen, D. C.; Buning, P. G.

    1983-01-01

    A slowly convergent stationary iterative process can be accelerated by explicitly annihilating (i.e., eliminating) the dominant eigenvector component of the error. The dominant eigenvalue or complex pair of eigenvalues can be estimated from the solution during the iteration. The corresponding eigenvector or complex pair of eigenvectors can then be annihilated by applying an explicit Richardson process over the basic iterative method. This can be done entirely in real arithmetic by analytically combining the complex conjugate annihilation steps. The technique is applied to an implicit algorithm for the calculation of two dimensional steady transonic flow over a circular cylinder using the equations of compressible inviscid gas dynamics. This demonstrates the use of explicit annihilation on a nonlinear problem.

  18. Explicit Form Focus Instruction: The Effects on Implicit and Explicit Knowledge of ESL Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ebadi, Mandana Rohollahzadeh; Saad, Mohd Rashid Mohd; Abedalaziz, Nabil

    2014-01-01

    The study examines the effect of explicit form focus instruction and specifically metalinguistic information feedback on the development of both implicit and explicit knowledge of adult English as a Second Language (ESL) learners. Ninety-one subjects at the lower intermediate level were carefully selected through placement test at one of the…

  19. The Tacit-Explicit Dimension of the Learning of Mathematics: An Investigation Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frade, Cristina; Borges, Oto

    2006-01-01

    This paper reports on study that investigated the tacit-explicit dimension of the learning of mathematics. The study was carried out in a secondary school and consisted of an episode analysis related to a class discussion about the difference between plane figures and spatial figures. The data analysis was based on integration between some aspects…

  20. From Asking to Answering: Making Questions Explicit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington, Gene

    2006-01-01

    "From Asking To Answering: Making Questions Explicit" describes a pedagogical procedure the author has used in writing classes (expository, technical and creative) to help students better understand the purpose, and effect, of text-questions. It accomplishes this by means of thirteen discrete categories (e.g., CLAIMS, COMMITMENT, ANAPHORA, or…

  1. ECO 202: Explicit Expressions of Ecological Protection

    EPA Science Inventory

    A critical early step in conducting an ecological risk assessment is deciding explicitly which aspects of the environment will be selected for evaluation. This step is often challenging; for example, because of the remarkable diversity of species, ecological communities and ecol...

  2. Fantasies and Exposure to Sexually Explicit Magazines.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malamuth, Neil M.; McIlwraith, Robert D.

    1988-01-01

    Reports a study focusing on the relationship between frequency of exposure to sexually explicit magazines and the frequency of sexual and hostile-aggressive fantasies. Finds no significant relationships for "Playboy" readers, but "Penthouse" readership was best predicted by the interaction of sexual and hostile fantasies. (MS)

  3. Children's Tacit and Explicit Understandings of Dinosaurs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barba, Robertta H.

    The purpose of this cross-age study was to investigate elementary students' (N=120) tacit and explicit understandings of dinosaurs. Detailed analysis of audiotaped interviews of children's performance during a Piagetian-type clinical interview suggests that children's conceptual understandings of dinosaurs are first developed at a tacit level from…

  4. Orchestrating Semiotic Resources in Explicit Strategy Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shanahan, Lynn E.; Flury-Kashmanian, Caroline

    2014-01-01

    Research and pedagogical information provided to teachers on implementing explicit strategy instruction has primarily focused on teachers' speech, with limited attention to other modes of communication, such as gesture and artefacts. This interpretive case study investigates two teachers' use of different semiotic resources when introducing…

  5. Explicit Instruction in Core Reading Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reutzel, D. Ray; Child, Angela; Jones, Cindy D.; Clark, Sarah K.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to conduct a content analysis of the types and occurrences of explicit instructional moves recommended for teaching five essentials of effective reading instruction in grades 1, 3, and 5 core reading program teachers' editions in five widely marketed core reading programs. Guided practice was the most frequently…

  6. Explicit Instruction Elements in Core Reading Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Child, Angela R.

    2012-01-01

    Classroom teachers are provided instructional recommendations for teaching reading from their adopted core reading programs (CRPs). Explicit instruction elements or what is also called instructional moves, including direct explanation, modeling, guided practice, independent practice, discussion, feedback, and monitoring, were examined within CRP…

  7. Sleep Enhances Explicit Recollection in Recognition Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drosopoulos, Spyridon; Wagner, Ullrich; Born, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Recognition memory is considered to be supported by two different memory processes, i.e., the explicit recollection of information about a previous event and an implicit process of recognition based on a contextual sense of familiarity. Both types of memory supposedly rely on distinct memory systems. Sleep is known to enhance the consolidation of…

  8. Implicit and explicit contributions to statistical learning

    PubMed Central

    Batterink, Laura J.; Reber, Paul J.; Neville, Helen J.; Paller, Ken A.

    2015-01-01

    Statistical learning allows learners to detect regularities in the environment and appears to emerge automatically as a consequence of experience. Statistical learning paradigms bear many similarities to those of artificial grammar learning and other types of implicit learning. However, whether learning effects in statistical learning tasks are driven by implicit knowledge has not been thoroughly examined. The present study addressed this gap by examining the role of implicit and explicit knowledge within the context of a typical auditory statistical learning paradigm. Learners were exposed to a continuous stream of repeating nonsense words. Learning was tested (a) directly via a forced-choice recognition test combined with a remember/know procedure and (b) indirectly through a novel reaction time (RT) test. Behavior and brain potentials revealed statistical learning effects with both tests. On the recognition test, accurate responses were associated with subjective feelings of stronger recollection, and learned nonsense words relative to nonword foils elicited an enhanced late positive potential indicative of explicit knowledge. On the RT test, both RTs and P300 amplitudes differed as a function of syllable position, reflecting facilitation attributable to statistical learning. Explicit stimulus recognition did not correlate with RT or P300 effects on the RT test. These results provide evidence that explicit knowledge is accrued during statistical learning, while bringing out the possibility that dissociable implicit representations are acquired in parallel. The commonly used recognition measure primarily reflects explicit knowledge, and thus may underestimate the total amount of knowledge produced by statistical learning. Indirect measures may be more sensitive indices of learning, capturing knowledge above and beyond what is reflected by recognition accuracy. PMID:26034344

  9. How does spatial variability of climate affect catchment streamflow predictions?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial variability of climate can negatively affect catchment streamflow predictions if it is not explicitly accounted for in hydrologic models. In this paper, we examine the changes in streamflow predictability when a hydrologic model is run with spatially variable (distribute...

  10. Crew Assembly

    NASA Video Gallery

    Train to improve your dexterity and hand-eye coordination by assembling a puzzle.The Train Like an Astronaut project uses the excitement of exploration to challenge students to set goals, practice ...

  11. Seal assembly

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Roger Neal; Longfritz, William David

    2001-01-01

    A seal assembly that seals a gap formed by a groove comprises a seal body, a biasing element, and a connection that connects the seal body to the biasing element to form the seal assembly. The seal assembly further comprises a concave-shaped center section and convex-shaped contact portions at each end of the seal body. The biasing element is formed from an elastic material and comprises a convex-shaped center section and concave-shaped biasing zones that are opposed to the convex-shaped contact portions. The biasing element is adapted to be compressed to change a width of the seal assembly from a first width to a second width that is smaller than the first width. In the compressed state, the seal assembly can be disposed in the groove. After release of the compressing force, the seal assembly expands. The contact portions will move toward a surface of the groove and the biasing zones will move into contact with another surface of the groove. The biasing zones will bias the contact portions of the seal body against the surface of the groove.

  12. Extrapolated implicit-explicit time stepping.

    SciTech Connect

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Sandu, A.; Mathematics and Computer Science; Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ.

    2010-01-01

    This paper constructs extrapolated implicit-explicit time stepping methods that allow one to efficiently solve problems with both stiff and nonstiff components. The proposed methods are based on Euler steps and can provide very high order discretizations of ODEs, index-1 DAEs, and PDEs in the method-of-lines framework. Implicit-explicit schemes based on extrapolation are simple to construct, easy to implement, and straightforward to parallelize. This work establishes the existence of perturbed asymptotic expansions of global errors, explains the convergence orders of these methods, and studies their linear stability properties. Numerical results with stiff ODE, DAE, and PDE test problems confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate the potential of these methods to solve multiphysics multiscale problems.

  13. Implicit and Explicit Spacecraft Gyro Calibration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.; Harman, Richard R.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a comparison between two approaches to sensor calibration. According to one approach, called explicit, an estimator compares the sensor readings to reference readings, and uses the difference between the two to estimate the calibration parameters. According to the other approach, called implicit, the sensor error is integrated to form a different entity, which is then compared with a reference quantity of this entity, and the calibration parameters are inferred from the difference. In particular this paper presents the comparison between these approaches when applied to in-flight spacecraft gyro calibration. Reference spacecraft rate is needed for gyro calibration when using the explicit approach; however, such reference rates are not readily available for in-flight calibration. Therefore the calibration parameter-estimator is expanded to include the estimation of that reference rate, which is based on attitude measurements in the form of attitude-quaternion. A comparison between the two approaches is made using simulated data. It is concluded that the performances of the two approaches are basically comparable. Sensitivity tests indicate that the explicit filter results are essentially insensitive to variations in given spacecraft dynamics model parameters.

  14. The Implicit and Explicit alpha-mu Schemes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, Sin-Chung; Himansu, Ananda

    1997-01-01

    with the treatment of diffusion being based on that in the implicit solvers. The explicit solver has only a CFL stability limitation on the Courant number, yet it retains the second-order spatial accuracy of the implicit schemes.

  15. Implicit for local effects and explicit for nonlocal effects is unconditionallly stable.

    SciTech Connect

    Anitescu, M.; Layton, W. J.; Pahlevani, F.; Mathematics and Computer Science; Univ. of Pittsburgh

    2004-01-01

    A combination of implicit and explicit timestepping is analyzed for a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) motivated by ones arising from spatial discretizations of evolutionary partial differential equations (PDEs). Loosely speaking, the method we consider is implicit in local and stabilizing terms in the underlying PDE and explicit in nonlocal and unstabilizing terms. Unconditional stability and convergence of the numerical scheme are proved by the energy method and by algebraic techniques. This stability result is surprising because usually when different methods are combined, the stability properties of the least stable method plays a determining role in the combination.

  16. Hinge assembly

    DOEpatents

    Vandergriff, D.H.

    1999-08-31

    A hinge assembly is disclosed having a first leaf, a second leaf and linking member. The first leaf has a contact surface. The second leaf has a first contact surface and a second contact surface. The linking member pivotally connects to the first leaf and to the second leaf. The hinge assembly is capable of moving from a closed position to an open position. In the closed position, the contact surface of the first leaf merges with the first contact surface of the second leaf. In the open position, the contact surface of the first leaf merges with the second contact surface of the second leaf. The hinge assembly can include a seal on the contact surface of the first leaf. 8 figs.

  17. Hinge assembly

    DOEpatents

    Vandergriff, David Houston

    1999-01-01

    A hinge assembly having a first leaf, a second leaf and linking member. The first leaf has a contact surface. The second leaf has a first contact surface and a second contact surface. The linking member pivotally connects to the first leaf and to the second leaf. The hinge assembly is capable of moving from a closed position to an open position. In the closed position, the contact surface of the first leaf merges with the first contact surface of the second leaf. In the open position, the contact surface of the first leaf merges with the second contact surface of the second leaf. The hinge assembly can include a seal on the contact surface of the first leaf.

  18. Moving beyond abundance distributions: neutral theory and spatial patterns in a tropical forest.

    PubMed

    May, Felix; Huth, Andreas; Wiegand, Thorsten

    2015-03-01

    Assessing the relative importance of different processes that determine the spatial distribution of species and the dynamics in highly diverse plant communities remains a challenging question in ecology. Previous modelling approaches often focused on single aggregated forest diversity patterns that convey limited information on the underlying dynamic processes. Here, we use recent advances in inference for stochastic simulation models to evaluate the ability of a spatially explicit and spatially continuous neutral model to quantitatively predict six spatial and non-spatial patterns observed at the 50 ha tropical forest plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The patterns capture different aspects of forest dynamics and biodiversity structure, such as annual mortality rate, species richness, species abundance distribution, beta-diversity and the species-area relationship (SAR). The model correctly predicted each pattern independently and up to five patterns simultaneously. However, the model was unable to match the SAR and beta-diversity simultaneously. Our study moves previous theory towards a dynamic spatial theory of biodiversity and demonstrates the value of spatial data to identify ecological processes. This opens up new avenues to evaluate the consequences of additional process for community assembly and dynamics.

  19. Contributions of executive function and spatial skills to preschool mathematics achievement.

    PubMed

    Verdine, Brian N; Irwin, Casey M; Golinkoff, Roberta Michnick; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathryn

    2014-10-01

    Early mathematics achievement is highly predictive of later mathematics performance. Here we investigated the influence of executive function (EF) and spatial skills, two generalizable skills often overlooked in mathematics curricula, on mathematics performance in preschoolers. Children (N=44) of varying socioeconomic status (SES) levels were assessed at 3 years of age on a new assessment of spatial skill (Test of Spatial Assembly, TOSA) and a vocabulary measure (Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, PPVT). The same children were tested at 4 years of age on the Beery Test of Visual-Motor Integration (VMI) as well as on measures of EF and mathematics. The TOSA was created specifically as an assessment for 3-year-olds, allowing the investigation of links among spatial, EF, and mathematical skills earlier than previously possible. Results of a hierarchical regression indicate that EF and spatial skills predict 70% of the variance in mathematics performance without an explicit math test, EF is an important predictor of math performance as prior research suggested, and spatial skills uniquely predict 27% of the variance in mathematics skills. Additional research is needed to understand whether EF is truly malleable and whether EF and spatial skills may be leveraged to support early mathematics skills, especially for lower SES children who are already falling behind in these skill areas by 3 and 4 years of age. These findings indicate that both skills are part of an important foundation for mathematics performance and may represent pathways for improving school readiness for mathematics. PMID:24874186

  20. Contributions of Executive Function and Spatial Skills to Preschool Mathematics Achievement

    PubMed Central

    Verdine, Brian N.; Irwin, Casey M.; Golinkoff, Roberta Michnick; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Early mathematics achievement is highly predictive of later mathematics performance. Here we investigate the influence of executive function (EF) and spatial skills, two generalizable skills often overlooked in mathematics curricula, on mathematics performance in preschoolers. Children (N = 44) of varying socio-economic status (SES) levels were assessed at age three on a new assessment of spatial skill (Test of Spatial Assembly, TOSA) and a vocabulary measure (the PPVT-4). The same children were tested at age four on the Beery Test of Visual-Motor Integration (VMI), as well as measures of EF, and mathematics. The TOSA was created specifically as an assessment for 3-year-olds, allowing the investigation of links between spatial, EF, and mathematical skills earlier than previously possible. Results of a hierarchical regression indicate that EF and spatial skills predict 70% of the variance in mathematics performance without an explicit math test, EF is an important predictor of math performance as prior research suggested, and spatial skills uniquely predict 27% of the variance in mathematics skills. Additional research is needed to understand if EF is truly malleable and whether EF and spatial skills may be leveraged to support early mathematics skills, especially for lower-SES children who are already falling behind in these skill areas by ages 3 and 4. These findings indicate that both skills are part of an important foundation for mathematics performance and may represent pathways for improving school readiness for mathematics. PMID:24874186

  1. Contributions of executive function and spatial skills to preschool mathematics achievement.

    PubMed

    Verdine, Brian N; Irwin, Casey M; Golinkoff, Roberta Michnick; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathryn

    2014-10-01

    Early mathematics achievement is highly predictive of later mathematics performance. Here we investigated the influence of executive function (EF) and spatial skills, two generalizable skills often overlooked in mathematics curricula, on mathematics performance in preschoolers. Children (N=44) of varying socioeconomic status (SES) levels were assessed at 3 years of age on a new assessment of spatial skill (Test of Spatial Assembly, TOSA) and a vocabulary measure (Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, PPVT). The same children were tested at 4 years of age on the Beery Test of Visual-Motor Integration (VMI) as well as on measures of EF and mathematics. The TOSA was created specifically as an assessment for 3-year-olds, allowing the investigation of links among spatial, EF, and mathematical skills earlier than previously possible. Results of a hierarchical regression indicate that EF and spatial skills predict 70% of the variance in mathematics performance without an explicit math test, EF is an important predictor of math performance as prior research suggested, and spatial skills uniquely predict 27% of the variance in mathematics skills. Additional research is needed to understand whether EF is truly malleable and whether EF and spatial skills may be leveraged to support early mathematics skills, especially for lower SES children who are already falling behind in these skill areas by 3 and 4 years of age. These findings indicate that both skills are part of an important foundation for mathematics performance and may represent pathways for improving school readiness for mathematics.

  2. Latch assembly

    DOEpatents

    Frederickson, James R.; Harper, William H.; Perez, Raymond

    1986-01-01

    A latch assembly for releasably securing an article in the form of a canister within a container housing. The assembly includes a cam pivotally mounted on the housing wall and biased into the housing interior. The cam is urged into a disabled position by the canister as it enters the housing and a latch release plate maintains the cam disabled when the canister is properly seated in the housing. Upon displacement of the release plate, the cam snaps into latching engagement against the canister for securing the same within the housing.

  3. Latch assembly

    DOEpatents

    Frederickson, J.R.; Harper, W.H.; Perez, R.

    1984-08-17

    A latch assembly for releasably securing an article in the form of a canister within a container housing. The assembly includes a cam pivotally mounted on the housing wall and biased into the housing interior. The cam is urged into a disabled position by the canister as it enters the housing and a latch release plate maintains the cam disabled when the canister is properly seated in the housing. Upon displacement of the release plate, the cam snaps into latching engagement against the canister for securing the same within the housing. 2 figs.

  4. Valve assembly

    SciTech Connect

    Marshala, D.L.

    1986-12-16

    This patent describes a subsurface pump actuated by a reciprocatable sucker rod for producing well liquids from a subsurface reservoir involving a piston adapted to reciprocate within a cylinder immersed in the reservoir, the piston being provided with a traveling valve. The improvement described here comprises valve means connected to the sucker tod for lifting a body of fluid during upstrokes of the sucker rod, the valve means comprising: a barrel assembly having an internal bore and comprising: a lower barrel member; and an upper barrel assembly connected to the lower barrel and having a beveled seating surface with at least one fluid port therethrough.

  5. Explicit 3-D Hydrodynamic FEM Program

    2000-11-07

    DYNA3D is a nonlinear explicit finite element code for analyzing 3-D structures and solid continuum. The code is vectorized and available on several computer platforms. The element library includes continuum, shell, beam, truss and spring/damper elements to allow maximum flexibility in modeling physical problems. Many materials are available to represent a wide range of material behavior, including elasticity, plasticity, composites, thermal effects and rate dependence. In addition, DYNA3D has a sophisticated contact interface capability, includingmore » frictional sliding, single surface contact and automatic contact generation.« less

  6. Explicit BCJ numerators of nonlinear simga model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Yi-Jian; Fu, Chih-Hao

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate the color-kinematics duality in nonlinear sigma model (NLSM). We present explicit polynomial expressions for the kinematic numerators (BCJ numerators). The calculation is done separately in two parametrization schemes of the theory using Kawai-Lewellen-Tye relation inspired technique, both lead to polynomial numerators. We summarize the calculation in each case into a set of rules that generates BCJ numerators for all multilplicities. In Cayley parametrization we find the numerator is described by a particularly simple formula solely in terms of momentum kernel.

  7. Furnace assembly

    DOEpatents

    Panayotou, N.F.; Green, D.R.; Price, L.S.

    A method of and apparatus for heating test specimens to desired elevated temperatures for irradiation by a high energy neutron source. A furnace assembly is provided for heating two separate groups of specimens to substantially different, elevated, isothermal temperatures in a high vacuum environment while positioning the two specimen groups symmetrically at equivalent neutron irradiating positions.

  8. Furnace assembly

    DOEpatents

    Panayotou, Nicholas F.; Green, Donald R.; Price, Larry S.

    1985-01-01

    A method of and apparatus for heating test specimens to desired elevated temperatures for irradiation by a high energy neutron source. A furnace assembly is provided for heating two separate groups of specimens to substantially different, elevated, isothermal temperatures in a high vacuum environment while positioning the two specimen groups symmetrically at equivalent neutron irradiating positions.

  9. Fully explicit algorithms for fluid simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clausen, Jonathan

    2011-11-01

    Computing hardware is trending towards distributed, massively parallel architectures in order to achieve high computational throughput. For example, Intrepid at Argonne uses 163,840 cores, and next generation machines, such as Sequoia at Lawrence Livermore, will use over one million cores. Harnessing the increasingly parallel nature of computational resources will require algorithms that scale efficiently on these architectures. The advent of GPU-based computation will serve to accelerate this behavior, as a single GPU contains hundreds of processor ``cores.'' Explicit algorithms avoid the communication associated with a linear solve, thus parallel scalability of these algorithms is typically high. This work will explore the efficiency and accuracy of three explicit solution methodologies for the Navier-Stokes equations: traditional artificial compressibility schemes, the lattice-Boltzmann method, and the recently proposed kinetically reduced local Navier-Stokes equations [Borok, Ansumali, and Karlin (2007)]. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  10. Explicitly represented polygon wall boundary model for the explicit MPS method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitsume, Naoto; Yoshimura, Shinobu; Murotani, Kohei; Yamada, Tomonori

    2015-05-01

    This study presents an accurate and robust boundary model, the explicitly represented polygon (ERP) wall boundary model, to treat arbitrarily shaped wall boundaries in the explicit moving particle simulation (E-MPS) method, which is a mesh-free particle method for strong form partial differential equations. The ERP model expresses wall boundaries as polygons, which are explicitly represented without using the distance function. These are derived so that for viscous fluids, and with less computational cost, they satisfy the Neumann boundary condition for the pressure and the slip/no-slip condition on the wall surface. The proposed model is verified and validated by comparing computed results with the theoretical solution, results obtained by other models, and experimental results. Two simulations with complex boundary movements are conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the E-MPS method to the ERP model.

  11. Assembling a holographic scene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mrongovius, Martina

    2013-03-01

    A series of art projects that use multiplex holography as a medium to combine and spatially animate multiple photographic perspectives are presented. Through the process of image collection and compilation into holograms, several concepts are explored. The animate spatial qualities of multiplex holograms are used to express an urban gaze of moving through cites and the multiplicity of perceptual experience. A question of how we understand ourselves to be located and the complexity of this sense is also addressed. The ability to assemble multiple photographic views together into a scene is considered as a method to document the collective experience of event. How these holographic scenes are viewed is compared to the compositional activity, showing both how the holographic medium inspired the compositions and is used as a means of expression.

  12. Developmental Comparisons of Implicit and Explicit Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lichtman, Karen

    2013-01-01

    Conventional wisdom holds that children learn languages implicitly whereas older learners learn languages explicitly, and some have claimed that after puberty only explicit language learning is possible. However, older learners often receive more explicit instruction than child L2 learners, which may affect their learning strategies. This study…

  13. Sensor assembly

    DOEpatents

    Bennett, Thomas E.; Nelson, Drew V.

    2004-04-13

    A ribbon-like sensor assembly is described wherein a length of an optical fiber embedded within a similar lengths of a prepreg tow. The fiber is ""sandwiched"" by two layers of the prepreg tow which are merged to form a single consolidated ribbon. The consolidated ribbon achieving a generally uniform distribution of composite filaments near the embedded fiber such that excess resin does not ""pool"" around the periphery of the embedded fiber.

  14. Explicit 2-D Hydrodynamic FEM Program

    1996-08-07

    DYNA2D* is a vectorized, explicit, two-dimensional, axisymmetric and plane strain finite element program for analyzing the large deformation dynamic and hydrodynamic response of inelastic solids. DYNA2D* contains 13 material models and 9 equations of state (EOS) to cover a wide range of material behavior. The material models implemented in all machine versions are: elastic, orthotropic elastic, kinematic/isotropic elastic plasticity, thermoelastoplastic, soil and crushable foam, linear viscoelastic, rubber, high explosive burn, isotropic elastic-plastic, temperature-dependent elastic-plastic. Themore » isotropic and temperature-dependent elastic-plastic models determine only the deviatoric stresses. Pressure is determined by one of 9 equations of state including linear polynomial, JWL high explosive, Sack Tuesday high explosive, Gruneisen, ratio of polynomials, linear polynomial with energy deposition, ignition and growth of reaction in HE, tabulated compaction, and tabulated.« less

  15. Reporting transparency: making the ethical mandate explicit.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Stuart G; Langan, Sinéad M; Benchimol, Eric I; Moher, David

    2016-03-16

    Improving the transparency and quality of reporting in biomedical research is considered ethically important; yet, this is often based on practical reasons such as the facilitation of peer review. Surprisingly, there has been little explicit discussion regarding the ethical obligations that underpin reporting guidelines. In this commentary, we suggest a number of ethical drivers for the improved reporting of research. These ethical drivers relate to researcher integrity as well as to the benefits derived from improved reporting such as the fair use of resources, minimizing risk of harms, and maximizing benefits. Despite their undoubted benefit to reporting completeness, questions remain regarding the extent to which reporting guidelines can influence processes beyond publication, including researcher integrity or the uptake of scientific research findings into policy or practice. Thus, we consider investigation on the effects of reporting guidelines an important step in providing evidence of their benefits.

  16. Explicit 2-D Hydrodynamic FEM Program

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Jerry

    1996-08-07

    DYNA2D* is a vectorized, explicit, two-dimensional, axisymmetric and plane strain finite element program for analyzing the large deformation dynamic and hydrodynamic response of inelastic solids. DYNA2D* contains 13 material models and 9 equations of state (EOS) to cover a wide range of material behavior. The material models implemented in all machine versions are: elastic, orthotropic elastic, kinematic/isotropic elastic plasticity, thermoelastoplastic, soil and crushable foam, linear viscoelastic, rubber, high explosive burn, isotropic elastic-plastic, temperature-dependent elastic-plastic. The isotropic and temperature-dependent elastic-plastic models determine only the deviatoric stresses. Pressure is determined by one of 9 equations of state including linear polynomial, JWL high explosive, Sack Tuesday high explosive, Gruneisen, ratio of polynomials, linear polynomial with energy deposition, ignition and growth of reaction in HE, tabulated compaction, and tabulated.

  17. Reporting transparency: making the ethical mandate explicit.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Stuart G; Langan, Sinéad M; Benchimol, Eric I; Moher, David

    2016-01-01

    Improving the transparency and quality of reporting in biomedical research is considered ethically important; yet, this is often based on practical reasons such as the facilitation of peer review. Surprisingly, there has been little explicit discussion regarding the ethical obligations that underpin reporting guidelines. In this commentary, we suggest a number of ethical drivers for the improved reporting of research. These ethical drivers relate to researcher integrity as well as to the benefits derived from improved reporting such as the fair use of resources, minimizing risk of harms, and maximizing benefits. Despite their undoubted benefit to reporting completeness, questions remain regarding the extent to which reporting guidelines can influence processes beyond publication, including researcher integrity or the uptake of scientific research findings into policy or practice. Thus, we consider investigation on the effects of reporting guidelines an important step in providing evidence of their benefits. PMID:26979591

  18. Making explicit the contention in hospice care.

    PubMed

    Moon, Paul J

    At the core of hospice remains the defining nature of mortals tending to other mortals facing diagnosed terminality. Such situations are pregnant with meanings. As mortals are subjective beings, social engagements become inundated with meaning differences. This alludes to the inescapable occurrence of collisions and conflicts in meaning. It would behoove us to make explicit the contention that exists in hospice care, given that death is the nonnegotiable outcome to be diversely faced by all involved persons whose lived approaches related to death issues may characteristically lack unanimity. Toward elucidating the inherently contentious nature of hospice care, the dynamical influence of external forces that overlie thanatological matters in society and the complex human dynamic in hospice care situations are discussed. Practice suggestions for hospice staff are offered.

  19. Spatial abstraction for autonomous robot navigation.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Susan L; Aroor, Anoop; Evanusa, Matthew; Sklar, Elizabeth I; Parsons, Simon

    2015-09-01

    Optimal navigation for a simulated robot relies on a detailed map and explicit path planning, an approach problematic for real-world robots that are subject to noise and error. This paper reports on autonomous robots that rely on local spatial perception, learning, and commonsense rationales instead. Despite realistic actuator error, learned spatial abstractions form a model that supports effective travel. PMID:26227680

  20. Spatial abstraction for autonomous robot navigation.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Susan L; Aroor, Anoop; Evanusa, Matthew; Sklar, Elizabeth I; Parsons, Simon

    2015-09-01

    Optimal navigation for a simulated robot relies on a detailed map and explicit path planning, an approach problematic for real-world robots that are subject to noise and error. This paper reports on autonomous robots that rely on local spatial perception, learning, and commonsense rationales instead. Despite realistic actuator error, learned spatial abstractions form a model that supports effective travel.

  1. Adaptive implicit-explicit finite element algorithms for fluid mechanics problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tezduyar, T. E.; Liou, J.

    1988-01-01

    The adaptive implicit-explicit (AIE) approach is presented for the finite-element solution of various problems in computational fluid mechanics. In the AIE approach, the elements are dynamically (adaptively) arranged into differently treated groups. The differences in treatment could be based on considerations such as the cost efficiency, the type of spatial or temporal discretization employed, the choice of field equations, etc. Several numerical tests are performed to demonstrate that this approach can achieve substantial savings in CPU time and memory.

  2. Pushrod assembly

    DOEpatents

    Potter, J.D.

    1984-03-30

    A pushrod assembly including a carriage mounted on a shaft for movement therealong and carrying a pushrod engageable with a load to be moved is described. A magnet is mounted on a supporting bracket for movement along such shaft. Means are provided for adjustably spacing magnet away from the carriage to obtain a selected magnetic attractive or coupling force therebetween. Movement of the supporting bracket and the magnet carried thereby pulls the carriage along with it until the selected magnetic force is exceeded by a resistance load acting on the carriage.

  3. Pushrod assembly

    DOEpatents

    Potter, Jerry D.

    1987-01-01

    A pushrod assembly including a carriage mounted on a shaft for movement therealong and carrying a pushrod engageable with a load to be moved. A magnet is mounted on a supporting bracket for movement along such shaft. Means are provided for adjustably spacing said magnet away from said carriage to obtain a selected magnetic attractive or coupling force therebetween. Movement of the supporting bracket and the magnet carried thereby pulls the carriage along with it until the selected magnetic force is exceeded by a resistance load acting on the carriage.

  4. Shingle assembly

    DOEpatents

    Dinwoodie, Thomas L.

    2007-02-20

    A barrier, such as a PV module, is secured to a base by a support to create a shingle assembly with a venting region defined between the barrier and base for temperature regulation. The first edge of one base may be interengageable with the second edge of an adjacent base to be capable of resisting first and second disengaging forces oriented perpendicular to the edges and along planes oriented parallel to and perpendicular to the base. A deflector may be used to help reduce wind uplift forces.

  5. Dump assembly

    DOEpatents

    Goldmann, L.H.

    1984-12-06

    This is a claim for a dump assembly having a fixed conduit and a rotatable conduit provided with overlapping plates, respectively, at their adjacent ends. The plates are formed with openings, respectively, normally offset from each other to block flow. The other end of the rotatable conduit is provided with means for securing the open end of a filled container thereto. Rotation of the rotatable conduit raises and inverts the container to empty the contents while concurrently aligning the conduit openings to permit flow of material therethrough. 4 figs.

  6. Large-eddy simulations with a dynamic explicit vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohrer, G.; Maurer, K.; Chatziefstratiou, E.; Medvigy, D.

    2014-12-01

    We coupled the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)-based Forest Large-Eddy Simulation (RAFLES) and a modified version of the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) to form a dynamic, high resolution, physiologically driven large eddy simulation. RAFLES represents both drag and volume restriction by the canopy over an explicit 3-D domain. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of uplift and circulation patterns at the front and back of a rectangular barrier to the representation of the canopy volume. We then used this model to perform a virtual experiment using combinations of realistic heterogeneous canopies and virtual homogenous canopies combined with heterogeneous and homogenous patterns of soil moisture to test the effects of the spatial scaling of soil moisture on the fluxes of momentum, heat, and water in heterogeneous environments at the tree-crown scale. Further simulations were performed to test the combined effects of canopy structure, soil moisture heterogeneity, and soil water availability. We found flux dynamics of momentum, heat, and water to be significantly influenced by canopy structure, soil moisture heterogeneity, and soil water availability. During non-plant-limiting soil-water conditions, we found canopy structure to be the primary driver of tree-crown scale fluxes of momentum, heat, and water, specifically through modification of the ejection sweep dynamics. However, as soil water conditions became limiting for latent heat flux from plants, tree-crown scale fluxes of momentum and heat became influenced by the spatial pattern of soil moisture, whereas soil moisture became a significant driver of tree-crown scale fluxes of water along with canopy structure.

  7. Searching for cell assemblies: how many electrodes do I need?

    PubMed

    Strangman, G

    1996-06-01

    Two methods were derived to estimate the probability of recording cell assemblies using multiple simultaneous electrode recordings. The derivations are independent of the definition of a cell assembly, and require only a statistic for evaluating cell assembly membership from spike train data. The resulting equations are functions of 1) the size of the search area, 2) the smallest expected assembly size, 3) the number of recorded neurons, and 4) the predicted spatial distribution of assembly neurons. The equations can be used to estimate the following three quantities. First, the equations directly calculate the probability of detecting i or more cells of an hypothesized assembly. Second, by making several such calculations, one can estimate when sufficient sampling has been performed to claim, at any desired confidence level, that a posited type of cell assembly does not exist. Third, the probability of detecting one out of several active assemblies can be calculated, given assumptions about assembly-assembly interactions.

  8. Explicit Logic Circuits Discriminate Neural States

    PubMed Central

    Yoder, Lane

    2009-01-01

    The magnitude and apparent complexity of the brain's connectivity have left explicit networks largely unexplored. As a result, the relationship between the organization of synaptic connections and how the brain processes information is poorly understood. A recently proposed retinal network that produces neural correlates of color vision is refined and extended here to a family of general logic circuits. For any combination of high and low activity in any set of neurons, one of the logic circuits can receive input from the neurons and activate a single output neuron whenever the input neurons have the given activity state. The strength of the output neuron's response is a measure of the difference between the smallest of the high inputs and the largest of the low inputs. The networks generate correlates of known psychophysical phenomena. These results follow directly from the most cost-effective architectures for specific logic circuits and the minimal cellular capabilities of excitation and inhibition. The networks function dynamically, making their operation consistent with the speed of most brain functions. The networks show that well-known psychophysical phenomena do not require extraordinarily complex brain structures, and that a single network architecture can produce apparently disparate phenomena in different sensory systems. PMID:19127299

  9. Explicit limit equilibrium solution for slope stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, D. Y.; Lee, C. F.

    2002-12-01

    Conventional methods of slices used for slope stability analysis satisfying all equilibrium conditions involves generally solving two highly non-linear equations with respect to two unknowns, i.e. the factor of safety and the associated scaling parameter. To solve these two equations, complicated numerical iterations are required with non-convergence occasionally occurring. This paper presents an alternative procedure to derive the three equilibrium equations (horizontal and vertical forces equations and moment equation) based on an assumption regarding the normal stress distribution along the slip surface. Combination of these equations results in a single cubic equation in terms of the factor of safety, which is explicitly solved. Theoretical testing demonstrates that the proposed method yields a factor of safety in reasonable agreement with a closed-form solution based on the theory of plasticity. Example studies show that the difference in values of factor of safety between the proposed method, the Spencer method and the Morgenstern-Price method is within 5%. Application of the proposed method to practical slope engineering problems is rather straightforward, but its solution is of the same precision as those given by the conventional rigorous methods of slices since it is still within the rigorous context.

  10. Similarities between explicit and implicit motor imagery in mental rotation of hands: an EEG study.

    PubMed

    Osuagwu, Bethel A; Vuckovic, Aleksandra

    2014-12-01

    Chronometric and imaging studies have shown that motor imagery is used implicitly during mental rotation tasks in which subjects for example judge the laterality of human hand pictures at various orientations. Since explicit motor imagery is known to activate the sensorimotor areas of the cortex, mental rotation is expected to do similar if it involves a form of motor imagery. So far, functional magnetic resonance imaging and positron emission tomography have been used to study mental rotation and less attention has been paid to electroencephalogram (EEG) which offers a high time-frequency resolution. The time-frequency analysis is an established method for studying explicit motor imagery. Although hand mental rotation is claimed to involve motor imagery, the time-frequency characteristics of mental rotation have never been compared with those of explicit motor imagery. In this study, time-frequency responses of EEG recorded during explicit motor imagery and during a mental rotation task, inducing implicit motor imagery, were compared. Fifteen right-handed healthy volunteers performed motor imagery of hands in one condition and hand laterality judgement tasks in another while EEG of the whole head was recorded. The hand laterality judgement was the mental rotation task used to induce implicit motor imagery. The time-frequency analysis and sLORETA localisation of the EEG showed that the activities in the sensorimotor areas had similar spatial and time-frequency characteristics in explicit motor imagery and implicit motor imagery conditions. Furthermore this sensorimotor activity was different for the left and for the right hand in both explicit and implicit motor imagery. This result supports that motor imagery is used during mental rotation and that it can be detected and studied with EEG technology. This result should encourage the use of mental rotation of body parts in rehabilitation programmes in a similar manner as motor imagery.

  11. Trait-mediated assembly processes predict successional changes in community diversity of tropical forests.

    PubMed

    Lasky, Jesse R; Uriarte, María; Boukili, Vanessa K; Chazdon, Robin L

    2014-04-15

    Interspecific differences in relative fitness can cause local dominance by a single species. However, stabilizing interspecific niche differences can promote local diversity. Understanding these mechanisms requires that we simultaneously quantify their effects on demography and link these effects to community dynamics. Successional forests are ideal systems for testing assembly theory because they exhibit rapid community assembly. Here, we leverage functional trait and long-term demographic data to build spatially explicit models of successional community dynamics of lowland rainforests in Costa Rica. First, we ask what the effects and relative importance of four trait-mediated community assembly processes are on tree survival, a major component of fitness. We model trait correlations with relative fitness differences that are both density-independent and -dependent in addition to trait correlations with stabilizing niche differences. Second, we ask how the relative importance of these trait-mediated processes relates to successional changes in functional diversity. Tree dynamics were more strongly influenced by trait-related interspecific variation in average survival than trait-related responses to neighbors, with wood specific gravity (WSG) positively correlated with greater survival. Our findings also suggest that competition was mediated by stabilizing niche differences associated with specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf dry matter content (LDMC). These drivers of individual-level survival were reflected in successional shifts to higher SLA and LDMC diversity but lower WSG diversity. Our study makes significant advances to identifying the links between individual tree performance, species functional traits, and mechanisms of tropical forest succession. PMID:24706791

  12. Thermocouple assembly

    DOEpatents

    Thermos, Anthony Constantine; Rahal, Fadi Elias

    2002-01-01

    A thermocouple assembly includes a thermocouple; a plurality of lead wires extending from the thermocouple; an insulating jacket extending along and enclosing the plurality of leads; and at least one internally sealed area within the insulating jacket to prevent fluid leakage along and within the insulating jacket. The invention also provides a method of preventing leakage of a fluid along and through an insulating jacket of a thermocouple including the steps of a) attaching a plurality of lead wires to a thermocouple; b) adding a heat sensitive pseudo-wire to extend along the plurality of lead wires; c) enclosing the lead wires and pseudo-wire inside an insulating jacket; d) locally heating axially spaced portions of the insulating jacket to a temperature which melts the pseudo-wire and fuses it with an interior surface of the jacket.

  13. Swivel assembly

    DOEpatents

    Hall, David R.; Pixton, David S.; Briscoe, Michael; Bradford, Kline; Rawle, Michael; Bartholomew, David B.; McPherson, James

    2007-03-20

    A swivel assembly for a downhole tool string comprises a first and second coaxial housing cooperatively arranged. The first housing comprises a first transmission element in communication with surface equipment. The second housing comprises a second transmission element in communication with the first transmission element. The second housing further comprises a third transmission element adapted for communication with a network integrated into the downhole tool string. The second housing may be rotational and adapted to transmit a signal between the downhole network and the first housing. Electronic circuitry is in communication with at least one of the transmission elements. The electronic circuitry may be externally mounted to the first or second housing. Further, the electronic circuitry may be internally mounted in the second housing. The electronic circuitry may be disposed in a recess in either first or second housing of the swivel.

  14. Implicit attitude generalization occurs immediately; explicit attitude generalization takes time.

    PubMed

    Ranganath, Kate A; Nosek, Brian A

    2008-03-01

    People are able to explicitly resist using knowledge about one person to evaluate another person from the same group. After learning about positive and negative behaviors performed by one individual from each of two different groups, participants were introduced briefly to new individuals from the groups. Implicit evaluations of the original individuals readily generalized to the new individuals; explicitly, participants resisted such generalization. Days later, both implicit and explicit evaluations of the original individuals generalized to the new individuals. The results suggest that associative links (e.g., shared group membership) are sufficient for implicit attitude generalization, but deliberative logic (e.g., individual group members are not necessarily the same) can reduce explicit generalization by association. When knowledge distinguishing who did what is unavailable, such as after forgetting, associative knowledge provides the basis of explicit evaluation. We conclude that a simple association linking one individual to another can produce implicit attitude generalization immediately and explicit attitude generalization eventually.

  15. De Novo Self-Assembling Collagen Heterotrimers using Explicit Positive and Negative Design

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Fei; Zhang, Lei; Koder, Ronald L.; Nanda, Vikas

    2010-01-01

    We sought to computationally design model collagen peptides that specifically associate as heterotrimers. Computational design has been successfully applied to the creation of new protein folds and functions. Despite the high abundance of collagen and its key role in numerous biological processes, fibrous proteins have received little attention as computational design targets. Collagens are composed of three polypeptide chains that wind into triple-helices. We developed a discrete computational model to design heterotrimer forming collagen-like peptides. Stability and specificity of oligomerization were concurrently targeted using a combined positive and negative design approach. The sequences of three 30-residue peptides, A, B and C were optimized to favor charge-pair interactions in an ABC heterotrimer, while disfavoring the twenty-six competing oligomers (i.e. AAA, ABB, BCA, etc.). Peptides were synthesized and characterized for thermal stability and triple-helical structure by circular dichroism and NMR. A unique A:B:C-type species was not achieved. Negative design was partially successful, with only A+B and B+C competing mixtures formed. Analysis of computed versus experimental stabilities helps clarify the role of electrostatics and secondary-structure propensities determining collagen stability, and provide important insight into how subsequent designs can be improved. PMID:20170197

  16. How Far Is "Near"? Inferring Distance from Spatial Descriptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlson, Laura A.; Covey, Eric S.

    2005-01-01

    A word may mean different things in different contexts. The current study explored the changing denotations of spatial terms, focusing on how the distance inferred from a spatial description varied as a function of the size of the objects being spatially related. We examined both terms that explicitly convey distance (i.e., topological terms such…

  17. Self-memory biases in explicit and incidental encoding of trait adjectives.

    PubMed

    Turk, David J; Cunningham, Sheila J; Macrae, C Neil

    2008-09-01

    An extensive literature has demonstrated that encoding information in a self-referential manner enhances subsequent memory performance. This 'self-reference effect' (i.e., better memory for self-referent than other-referent information) is generally elicited in paradigms that require participants to evaluate the self-descriptiveness of personality characteristics. Extending work of this kind, the current research explored the possibility that explicit evaluative processing is not a necessary precondition for the emergence of this effect. Rather, responses to self cues may enhance item encoding even in the absence of explicit evaluative instructions. We explored this hypothesis by testing memory for items encoded in either an evaluative or relational context. The relational context was achieved by requesting participants to report the spatial relationship between target stimuli, and visual or verbal referent cues. The results revealed a self-referent memory advantage, regardless of the encoding context or triggering cue. The theoretical implications of these findings are considered.

  18. "Make It Explicit!": Improving Collaboration through Increase of Script Coercion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papadopoulos, P. M.; Demetriadis, S. N.; Weinberger, A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of the proposed "Make It Explicit!" technique on students' learning when participating in scripted collaborative activities. The method posits that when asking students to proactively articulate their own positions explicitly, then improved peer interaction is triggered in a subsequent…

  19. Chinese Undergraduates' Explicit and Implicit Attitudes toward Persons with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Shuang; Ma, Li; Zhang, Jian-Xin

    2011-01-01

    The present study is aimed at examining implicit and explicit attitudes toward persons with disabilities among Chinese college students. The "Implicit Association Test" was used to measure their implicit attitudes, whereas their explicit attitudes toward persons with disabilities were measured by using a scale of three items. Participants were 56…

  20. Explicitly solvable complex Chebyshev approximation problems related to sine polynomials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freund, Roland

    1989-01-01

    Explicitly solvable real Chebyshev approximation problems on the unit interval are typically characterized by simple error curves. A similar principle is presented for complex approximation problems with error curves induced by sine polynomials. As an application, some new explicit formulae for complex best approximations are derived.

  1. The Effectiveness of Explicit Attention to Form in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radwan, Adel Abu

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores the facilitative effects of various types of attention-drawing instructional conditions (explicit and implicit) on the acquisition of English dative alternation. Specifically, the study addresses: (a) whether differences in the degree of explicitness manipulated in various instructional conditions differently affect the…

  2. Measuring Explicit and Implicit Knowledge: A Psychometric Study in SLA

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ebadi, Mandana Rohollahzadeh; Abedalaziz, Nabeel; Saad, Mohd Rashid Mohd

    2015-01-01

    Lack of valid means of measuring explicit and implicit knowledge in acquisition of second language is a concern issue in investigations of explicit and implicit learning. This paper endeavors to validate the use of four tests (i.e., Untimed Judgment Grammatical Test, UJGT; Test of Metalinguistic Knowledge, TMK; Elicited Oral Imitation Test, EOIT;…

  3. Functional differences between statistical learning with and without explicit training

    PubMed Central

    Reber, Paul J.; Paller, Ken A.

    2015-01-01

    Humans are capable of rapidly extracting regularities from environmental input, a process known as statistical learning. This type of learning typically occurs automatically, through passive exposure to environmental input. The presumed function of statistical learning is to optimize processing, allowing the brain to more accurately predict and prepare for incoming input. In this study, we ask whether the function of statistical learning may be enhanced through supplementary explicit training, in which underlying regularities are explicitly taught rather than simply abstracted through exposure. Learners were randomly assigned either to an explicit group or an implicit group. All learners were exposed to a continuous stream of repeating nonsense words. Prior to this implicit training, learners in the explicit group received supplementary explicit training on the nonsense words. Statistical learning was assessed through a speeded reaction-time (RT) task, which measured the extent to which learners used acquired statistical knowledge to optimize online processing. Both RTs and brain potentials revealed significant differences in online processing as a function of training condition. RTs showed a crossover interaction; responses in the explicit group were faster to predictable targets and marginally slower to less predictable targets relative to responses in the implicit group. P300 potentials to predictable targets were larger in the explicit group than in the implicit group, suggesting greater recruitment of controlled, effortful processes. Taken together, these results suggest that information abstracted through passive exposure during statistical learning may be processed more automatically and with less effort than information that is acquired explicitly. PMID:26472644

  4. Effects of Explicit Instructions, Metacognition, and Motivation on Creative Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hong, Eunsook; O'Neil, Harold F.; Peng, Yun

    2016-01-01

    Effects of explicit instructions, metacognition, and intrinsic motivation on creative homework performance were examined in 303 Chinese 10th-grade students. Models that represent hypothesized relations among these constructs and trait covariates were tested using structural equation modelling. Explicit instructions geared to originality were…

  5. Gender Differences in Implicit and Explicit Memory for Affective Passages

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Leslie A.; Rabin, Laura; Vardy, Susan Bernstein.; Frohlich, Jonathan; Wyatt, Gwinne; Dimitri, Diana; Constante, Shimon; Guterman, Elan

    2004-01-01

    Thirty-two participants were administered 4 verbal tasks, an Implicit Affective Task, an Implicit Neutral Task, an Explicit Affective Task, and an Explicit Neutral Task. For the Implicit Tasks, participants were timed while reading passages aloud as quickly as possible, but not so quickly that they did not understand. A target verbal passage was…

  6. Explicit- and implicit bullying attitudes in relation to bullying behavior.

    PubMed

    van Goethem, Anne A J; Scholte, Ron H J; Wiers, Reinout W

    2010-08-01

    The main aim of this study was to examine whether an assessment of implicit bullying attitudes could add to the prediction of bullying behavior after controlling for explicit bullying attitudes. Primary school children (112 boys and 125 girls, M age = 11 years, 5 months) completed two newly developed measures of implicit bullying attitudes (a general Implicit Association Test on bullying and a movie-primed specific IAT on bullying), an explicit bullying attitude measure, and self reported, peer reported, and teacher rated bullying behavior. While explicit bullying attitudes predicted bullying behavior, implicit attitudes did not. However, a significant interaction between implicit and explicit bullying attitudes indicated that in children with relatively positive explicit attitudes, implicit bullying attitudes were important predictors of bullying behavior. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

  7. Self-assembled nanomaterials for photoacoustic imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lei; Yang, Pei-Pei; Zhao, Xiao-Xiao; Wang, Hao

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, extensive endeavors have been paid to construct functional self-assembled nanomaterials for various applications such as catalysis, separation, energy and biomedicines. To date, different strategies have been developed for preparing nanomaterials with diversified structures and functionalities via fine tuning of self-assembled building blocks. In terms of biomedical applications, bioimaging technologies are urgently calling for high-efficient probes/contrast agents for high-performance bioimaging. Photoacoustic (PA) imaging is an emerging whole-body imaging modality offering high spatial resolution, deep penetration and high contrast in vivo. The self-assembled nanomaterials show high stability in vivo, specific tolerance to sterilization and prolonged half-life stability and desirable targeting properties, which is a kind of promising PA contrast agents for biomedical imaging. Herein, we focus on summarizing recent advances in smart self-assembled nanomaterials with NIR absorption as PA contrast agents for biomedical imaging. According to the preparation strategy of the contrast agents, the self-assembled nanomaterials are categorized into two groups, i.e., the ex situ and in situ self-assembled nanomaterials. The driving forces, assembly modes and regulation of PA properties of self-assembled nanomaterials and their applications for long-term imaging, enzyme activity detection and aggregation-induced retention (AIR) effect for diagnosis and therapy are emphasized. Finally, we conclude with an outlook towards future developments of self-assembled nanomaterials for PA imaging.

  8. Acceleration techniques for explicit Euler codes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tai, Chang Hsien

    Two steps in the acceleration of Euler computations to steady solutions are studied: (1) using full multi-grid to march from an arbitrary initial guess to within the range of attraction of the steady solution; and (2) using vector-sequencing to converge to the steady solution from a nearby state. Regarding the first step, in order to design schemes that combine well with multi-grid acceleration, a method was developed for designing optimally smoothing multi-stage time-marching schemes, given any spatial-differencing operator. The analysis was extended to the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations in one space-dimension by use of characteristic time-stepping. Convergence rates independent of the number of cells in the finest grid were achieved with these optimal schemes, for transonic flow with and without a shock. Besides characteristic time-stepping, local time-stepping was tested with these schemes. Good convergence was obtained with local time-stepping. Finally, the analysis was extended to scalar, Burgers, and Euler equations in two space dimensions. The successful application to multi-dimensional scalar equations turns out to depend on the possibility of damping numerical signals that move normal to the physical transport direction. Several techniques that were tested do this. Regarding the second step, two vector-sequencing strategies, generalized minimum residuals (GMRES) and minimum polynomial extrapolation (MPE), which can quickly converge to the steady solution from a nearby state, were explored and applied to linear and nonlinear problems. The results obtained with GMRES and MPE in nested iterations suggest that there is an advantage in the combination of the multi-grid strategy with vector-sequencing ideas.

  9. Liquid-liquid interfacial nanoparticle assemblies

    DOEpatents

    Emrick, Todd S.; Russell, Thomas P.; Dinsmore, Anthony; Skaff, Habib; Lin, Yao

    2008-12-30

    Self-assembly of nanoparticles at the interface between two fluids, and methods to control such self-assembly process, e.g., the surface density of particles assembling at the interface; to utilize the assembled nanoparticles and their ligands in fabrication of capsules, where the elastic properties of the capsules can be varied from soft to tough; to develop capsules with well-defined porosities for ultimate use as delivery systems; and to develop chemistries whereby multiple ligands or ligands with multiple functionalities can be attached to the nanoparticles to promote the interfacial segregation and assembly of the nanoparticles. Certain embodiments use cadmium selenide (CdSe) nanoparticles, since the photoluminescence of the particles provides a convenient means by which the spatial location and organization of the particles can be probed. However, the systems and methodologies presented here are general and can, with suitable modification of the chemistries, be adapted to any type of nanoparticle.

  10. Spatial Visualization by Isometric View

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yue, Jianping

    2007-01-01

    Spatial visualization is a fundamental skill in technical graphics and engineering designs. From conventional multiview drawing to modern solid modeling using computer-aided design, visualization skills have always been essential for representing three-dimensional objects and assemblies. Researchers have developed various types of tests to measure…

  11. Disentangling Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients' Implicit and Explicit Attitudes toward Methotrexate.

    PubMed

    Linn, Annemiek J; Vandeberg, Lisa; Wennekers, Annemarie M; Vervloet, Marcia; van Dijk, Liset; van den Bemt, Bart J F

    2016-01-01

    Medication non-adherence is a major public health problem that has been termed an 'invisible epidemic.' Non-adherence is not only associated with negative clinical consequences but can also result in substantial healthcare costs. Up to now, effective adherence interventions are scarce and a more comprehensive model of adherence determinants is required to target the determinants for not taking the medication as prescribed. Current approaches only included explicit attitudes such as self-reported evaluations of medication as determinants, neglecting the role of associative processes that shape implicit attitudes. Implicit processes can predict daily behavior more accurately than explicit attitudes. Our aim is to assess explicit and implicit attitudes toward medication and explore the relation with beliefs, adherence and clinical (laboratory) outcomes in chronically ill patients. Fifty two Rheumatic Arthritis (RA) patients' attitudes toward Methotrexate (MTX) were explicitly (self-reported) and implicitly (Single-Category Implicit Association Test) assessed and related to the Beliefs about Medicine Questionnaire, the Compliance Questionnaire on Rheumatology and laboratory parameters [Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR), C-Reactive Protein (CRP)]. Results show that explicit attitudes were positive and health-related. Implicit attitudes were, however, negative and sickness-related. Half of the patients displayed explicitly positive but implicitly negative attitudes. Explicit attitudes were positively related to ESR. A positive relationship between implicit attitudes and disease duration was observed. In this study, we have obtained evidence suggesting that the measurement of implicit attitudes and associations provides different information than explicit, self-reported attitudes toward medication. Since patients' implicit attitudes deviated from explicit attitudes, we can conclude that the relationship between implicit attitudes and medication adherence is worthwhile

  12. Disentangling Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients’ Implicit and Explicit Attitudes toward Methotrexate

    PubMed Central

    Linn, Annemiek J.; Vandeberg, Lisa; Wennekers, Annemarie M.; Vervloet, Marcia; van Dijk, Liset; van den Bemt, Bart J. F.

    2016-01-01

    Medication non-adherence is a major public health problem that has been termed an ‘invisible epidemic.’ Non-adherence is not only associated with negative clinical consequences but can also result in substantial healthcare costs. Up to now, effective adherence interventions are scarce and a more comprehensive model of adherence determinants is required to target the determinants for not taking the medication as prescribed. Current approaches only included explicit attitudes such as self-reported evaluations of medication as determinants, neglecting the role of associative processes that shape implicit attitudes. Implicit processes can predict daily behavior more accurately than explicit attitudes. Our aim is to assess explicit and implicit attitudes toward medication and explore the relation with beliefs, adherence and clinical (laboratory) outcomes in chronically ill patients. Fifty two Rheumatic Arthritis (RA) patients’ attitudes toward Methotrexate (MTX) were explicitly (self-reported) and implicitly (Single-Category Implicit Association Test) assessed and related to the Beliefs about Medicine Questionnaire, the Compliance Questionnaire on Rheumatology and laboratory parameters [Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR), C-Reactive Protein (CRP)]. Results show that explicit attitudes were positive and health-related. Implicit attitudes were, however, negative and sickness-related. Half of the patients displayed explicitly positive but implicitly negative attitudes. Explicit attitudes were positively related to ESR. A positive relationship between implicit attitudes and disease duration was observed. In this study, we have obtained evidence suggesting that the measurement of implicit attitudes and associations provides different information than explicit, self-reported attitudes toward medication. Since patients’ implicit attitudes deviated from explicit attitudes, we can conclude that the relationship between implicit attitudes and medication adherence is

  13. Disentangling Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients' Implicit and Explicit Attitudes toward Methotrexate.

    PubMed

    Linn, Annemiek J; Vandeberg, Lisa; Wennekers, Annemarie M; Vervloet, Marcia; van Dijk, Liset; van den Bemt, Bart J F

    2016-01-01

    Medication non-adherence is a major public health problem that has been termed an 'invisible epidemic.' Non-adherence is not only associated with negative clinical consequences but can also result in substantial healthcare costs. Up to now, effective adherence interventions are scarce and a more comprehensive model of adherence determinants is required to target the determinants for not taking the medication as prescribed. Current approaches only included explicit attitudes such as self-reported evaluations of medication as determinants, neglecting the role of associative processes that shape implicit attitudes. Implicit processes can predict daily behavior more accurately than explicit attitudes. Our aim is to assess explicit and implicit attitudes toward medication and explore the relation with beliefs, adherence and clinical (laboratory) outcomes in chronically ill patients. Fifty two Rheumatic Arthritis (RA) patients' attitudes toward Methotrexate (MTX) were explicitly (self-reported) and implicitly (Single-Category Implicit Association Test) assessed and related to the Beliefs about Medicine Questionnaire, the Compliance Questionnaire on Rheumatology and laboratory parameters [Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR), C-Reactive Protein (CRP)]. Results show that explicit attitudes were positive and health-related. Implicit attitudes were, however, negative and sickness-related. Half of the patients displayed explicitly positive but implicitly negative attitudes. Explicit attitudes were positively related to ESR. A positive relationship between implicit attitudes and disease duration was observed. In this study, we have obtained evidence suggesting that the measurement of implicit attitudes and associations provides different information than explicit, self-reported attitudes toward medication. Since patients' implicit attitudes deviated from explicit attitudes, we can conclude that the relationship between implicit attitudes and medication adherence is worthwhile

  14. Latching relay switch assembly

    DOEpatents

    Duimstra, Frederick A.

    1991-01-01

    A latching relay switch assembly which includes a coil section and a switch or contact section. The coil section includes at least one permanent magnet and at least one electromagnet. The respective sections are, generally, arranged in separate locations or cavities in the assembly. The switch is latched by a permanent magnet assembly and selectively switched by an overriding electromagnetic assembly.

  15. Self-assembled plasmonic metamaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mühlig, Stefan; Cunningham, Alastair; Dintinger, José; Scharf, Toralf; Bürgi, Thomas; Lederer, Falk; Rockstuhl, Carsten

    2013-07-01

    Nowadays for the sake of convenience most plasmonic nanostructures are fabricated by top-down nanofabrication technologies. This offers great degrees of freedom to tailor the geometry with unprecedented precision. However, it often causes disadvantages as well. The structures available are usually planar and periodically arranged. Therefore, bulk plasmonic structures are difficult to fabricate and the periodic arrangement causes undesired effects, e.g., strong spatial dispersion is observed in metamaterials. These limitations can be mitigated by relying on bottom-up nanofabrication technologies. There, self-assembly methods and techniques from the field of colloidal nanochemistry are used to build complex functional unit cells in solution from an ensemble of simple building blocks, i.e., in most cases plasmonic nanoparticles. Achievable structures are characterized by a high degree of nominal order only on a short-range scale. The precise spatial arrangement across larger dimensions is not possible in most cases; leading essentially to amorphous structures. Such self-assembled nanostructures require novel analytical means to describe their properties, innovative designs of functional elements that possess a desired near- and far-field response, and entail genuine nanofabrication and characterization techniques. Eventually, novel applications have to be perceived that are adapted to the specifics of the self-assembled nanostructures. This review shall document recent progress in this field of research. Emphasis is put on bottom-up amorphous metamaterials. We document the state-of-the-art but also critically assess the problems that have to be overcome.

  16. Exploring the effect of the spatial scale of fishery management.

    PubMed

    Takashina, Nao; Baskett, Marissa L

    2016-02-01

    For any spatially explicit management, determining the appropriate spatial scale of management decisions is critical to success at achieving a given management goal. Specifically, managers must decide how much to subdivide a given managed region: from implementing a uniform approach across the region to considering a unique approach in each of one hundred patches and everything in between. Spatially explicit approaches, such as the implementation of marine spatial planning and marine reserves, are increasingly used in fishery management. Using a spatially explicit bioeconomic model, we quantify how the management scale affects optimal fishery profit, biomass, fishery effort, and the fraction of habitat in marine reserves. We find that, if habitats are randomly distributed, the fishery profit increases almost linearly with the number of segments. However, if habitats are positively autocorrelated, then the fishery profit increases with diminishing returns. Therefore, the true optimum in management scale given cost to subdivision depends on the habitat distribution pattern.

  17. Inlet nozzle assembly

    DOEpatents

    Christiansen, David W.; Karnesky, Richard A.; Precechtel, Donald R.; Smith, Bob G.; Knight, Ronald C.

    1987-01-01

    An inlet nozzle assembly for directing coolant into the duct tube of a fuel assembly attached thereto. The nozzle assembly includes a shell for housing separable components including an orifice plate assembly, a neutron shield block, a neutron shield plug, and a diffuser block. The orifice plate assembly includes a plurality of stacked plates of differently configurated and sized openings for directing coolant therethrough in a predesigned flow pattern.

  18. Inlet nozzle assembly

    DOEpatents

    Christiansen, D.W.; Karnesky, R.A.; Knight, R.C.; Precechtel, D.R.; Smith, B.G.

    1985-09-09

    An inlet nozzle assembly for directing coolant into the duct tube of a fuel assembly attached thereto. The nozzle assembly includes a shell for housing separable components including an orifice plate assembly, a neutron shield block, a neutron shield plug, and a diffuser block. The orifice plate assembly includes a plurality of stacked plates of differently configurated and sized openings for directing coolant therethrough in a predesigned flow pattern.

  19. Structural assembly in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stokes, J. W.; Pruett, E. C.

    1980-01-01

    A cost algorithm for predicting assembly costs for large space structures is given. Assembly scenarios are summarized which describe the erection, deployment, and fabrication tasks for five large space structures. The major activities that impact total costs for structure assembly from launch through deployment and assembly to scientific instrument installation and checkout are described. Individual cost elements such as assembly fixtures, handrails, or remote minipulators are also presented.

  20. Spatial cognition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaiser, Mary Kister; Remington, Roger

    1988-01-01

    Spatial cognition is the ability to reason about geometric relationships in the real (or a metaphorical) world based on one or more internal representations of those relationships. The study of spatial cognition is concerned with the representation of spatial knowledge, and our ability to manipulate these representations to solve spatial problems. Spatial cognition is utilized most critically when direct perceptual cues are absent or impoverished. Examples are provided of how human spatial cognitive abilities impact on three areas of space station operator performance: orientation, path planning, and data base management. A videotape provides demonstrations of relevant phenomena (e.g., the importance of orientation for recognition of complex, configural forms). The presentation is represented by abstract and overhead visuals only.

  1. Anger enhances correspondence between implicit and explicit attitudes.

    PubMed

    Huntsinger, Jeffrey R

    2013-04-01

    The goal of the current research was to subject to empirical examination the idea that the experience of anger would narrow the separation between implicit and explicit attitudes. Specifically, the tendency of anger to promote a sense of certainty in one's point of view was predicted to enhance the subjective validity of implicit attitudes, and that this validation of implicit attitudes by anger should increase implicit-explicit attitude correspondence. Consistent with these predictions, across three experiments, anger, as compared with neutral emotion (Experiments 1-3) and sad emotion (Experiments 1-2), was found to increase implicit-explicit attitude correspondence. Appraisals of certainty, but not individual control, mediated the effect of anger on implicit-explicit correspondence (Experiment 3). More generally, these results imply that anger may play an essential, but until now overlooked, role in directing the interplay between spontaneous and deliberative aspects of the self.

  2. Serial position effects in implicit and explicit tests of memory.

    PubMed

    Gershberg, F B; Shimamura, A P

    1994-11-01

    The effects of serial position at study on implicit and explicit tests of memory were investigated. Both primary and recency effects were observed in implicit tests of word-stem completion. These effects, however, were transient. No serial position effects were found in the second half of testing (Experiments 1 and 3) or when testing followed a 1-min, filled delay (Experiment 2). Serial position effects were also examined in explicit tests of cued recall. When performance on explicit cued recall was below ceiling levels, a primacy effect persisted throughout testing (Experiment 3). Similarly, in explicit tests of free recall, primacy effects were consistently observed, both with immediate testing (Experiments 1 and 3) and when testing followed a filled delay (Experiment 2).

  3. Explicit and Implicit Emotion Regulation: A Dual-Process Framework

    PubMed Central

    Gyurak, Anett; Gross, James J.; Etkin, Amit

    2012-01-01

    It is widely acknowledged that emotions can be regulated in an astonishing variety of ways. Most research to date has focused on explicit (effortful) forms of emotion regulation. However, there is growing research interest in implicit (automatic) forms of emotion regulation. To organize emerging findings, we present a dual-process framework that integrates explicit and implicit forms of emotion regulation, and argue that both forms of regulation are necessary for well-being. In the first section of this review, we provide a broad overview of the construct of emotion regulation, with an emphasis on explicit and implicit processes. In the second section, we focus on explicit emotion regulation, considering both neural mechanisms that are associated with these processes and their experiential and physiological consequences. In the third section, we turn to several forms of implicit emotion regulation, and integrate the burgeoning literature in this area. We conclude by outlining open questions and areas for future research. PMID:21432682

  4. Implicit and explicit learning in individuals with agrammatic aphasia.

    PubMed

    Schuchard, Julia; Thompson, Cynthia K

    2014-06-01

    Implicit learning is a process of acquiring knowledge that occurs without conscious awareness of learning, whereas explicit learning involves the use of overt strategies. To date, research related to implicit learning following stroke has been largely restricted to the motor domain and has rarely addressed implications for language. The present study investigated implicit and explicit learning of an auditory word sequence in 10 individuals with stroke-induced agrammatic aphasia and 18 healthy age-matched participants using an adaptation of the Serial Reaction Time task. Individuals with aphasia showed significant learning under implicit, but not explicit, conditions, whereas age-matched participants learned under both conditions. These results suggest significant implicit learning ability in agrammatic aphasia. Furthermore, results of an auditory sentence span task indicated working memory deficits in individuals with agrammatic aphasia, which are discussed in relation to explicit and implicit learning processes.

  5. Multidimensional explicit difference schemes for hyperbolic conservation laws

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vanleer, B.

    1983-01-01

    First and second order explicit difference schemes are derived for a three dimensional hyperbolic system of conservation laws, without recourse to dimensional factorization. All schemes are upwind (backward) biased and optimally stable.

  6. Ontogeny is different for explicit and implicit memory in humans.

    PubMed

    Hömberg, V; Bickmann, U; Müller, K

    1993-02-19

    This study was aimed to clarify in how far ontogenetic development is different for declarative/explicit compared to procedural/implicit learning. These two memory subsystems are differentially affected in a number of pathological conditions. Sixty-one children between the age of 5 and 10 years were tested on a verbal story recall and non-verbal pictorial recall task, representing explicit memory. To test for implicit memory, a motor mirror tracking task and a non-motor tower-of-hanoi puzzle were used. Both explicit memory tasks showed a clear developmental profile with an increase in the number of recalled items for immediate, late and delayed recall with adult values not reached before the age of 9-10 years. In contrast, there were no age differences for both implicit memory tasks. The study demonstrates that explicit and implicit memory follow different maturational trends and further corroborate the notion of two different memory systems. PMID:8469418

  7. Exact and Explicit Internal Equatorial Water Waves with Underlying Currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kluczek, Mateusz

    2016-07-01

    In this paper we present an exact and explicit solution to the geophysical governing equations in the Equatorial region, which represents internal oceanic waves in the presence of a constant underlying current.

  8. Qualitative differences between implicit and explicit sequence learning.

    PubMed

    Jiménez, Luis; Vaquero, Joaquín M M; Lupiáñez, Juan

    2006-05-01

    Four experiments investigate the differences between implicit and explicit sequence learning concerning their resilience to structural and superficial task changes. A superficial change that embedded the SRT task in the context of a selection task, while maintaining the sequence, did selectively hinder the expression of implicit learning. In contrast, a manipulation that maintained the task surface, but decreased the sequence validity, affected the expression of learning specifically when it was explicit. These results are discussed in the context of a dynamic framework (Cleeremans & Jiménez, 2002), which assumes that implicit knowledge is specially affected by contextual factors and that, as knowledge becomes explicit, it allows for the development of relevant metaknowledge that modulates the expression of explicit knowledge. PMID:16719660

  9. Moderators of the Relationship between Implicit and Explicit Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Nosek, Brian A.

    2005-01-01

    Automatic and controlled modes of evaluation sometimes provide conflicting reports of the quality of social objects. This paper presents evidence for four moderators of the relationship between automatic (implicit) and controlled (explicit) evaluations. Implicit and explicit preferences were measured for a variety of object pairs using a large sample. The average correlation was r = .36, and 52 of the 57 object pairs showed a significant positive correlation. Results of multilevel modeling analyses suggested that: (a) implicit and explicit preferences are related, (b) the relationship varies as a function of the objects assessed, and (c) at least four variables moderate the relationship – self-presentation, evaluative strength, dimensionality, and distinctiveness. The variables moderated implicit-explicit correspondence across individuals and accounted for much of the observed variation across content domains. The resulting model of the relationship between automatic and controlled evaluative processes is grounded in personal experience with the targets of evaluation. PMID:16316292

  10. Exploring implicit and explicit aspects of sense of agency.

    PubMed

    Moore, J W; Middleton, D; Haggard, P; Fletcher, P C

    2012-12-01

    Sense of agency refers to the sense of initiating and controlling actions in order to influence events in the outside world. Recently, a distinction between implicit and explicit aspects of sense of agency has been proposed, analogous to distinctions found in other areas of cognition, notably learning. However, there is yet no strong evidence supporting separable implicit and explicit components of sense of agency. The so-called 'Perruchet paradigm' offers one of the few convincing demonstrations of separable implicit and explicit learning systems. We adopted this approach to evaluate the implicit-explicit distinction in the context of a simple task in which outcomes were probabilistically caused by actions. In line with our initial predictions, we found evidence of a dissociation. We discuss the implications of this result for theories of sense of agency.

  11. The time course of implicit and explicit concept learning.

    PubMed

    Ziori, Eleni; Dienes, Zoltán

    2012-03-01

    The present experiment investigated the development of implicit and explicit knowledge during concept learning. According to Cleeremans and Jiménez (2002), the content of a representation can be conscious only when the representation is of a sufficiently good quality; on this theory, increasing explicit and decreasing implicit knowledge might be expected with training. The view that implicit knowledge arises from compilation of explicit knowledge makes the opposite prediction. The present research tested these possibilities using subjective measures based on confidence ratings. One group of participants was presented with blocks of category exemplars that activated prior knowledge, whereas another group was presented with blocks of categories that did not elicit any useful prior knowledge. The results showed that, irrespective of the knowledge group participants were allocated to, explicit knowledge increased over the course of learning, whereas implicit knowledge either stayed the same or decreased, consistent with Cleeremans and Jiménez's prediction.

  12. Multidimensional explicit difference schemes for hyperbolic conservation laws

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Van Leer, B.

    1984-01-01

    First- and second-order explicit difference schemes are derived for a three-dimensional hyperbolic system of conservation laws, without recourse to dimensional factorization. All schemes are upwind biased and optimally stable.

  13. Tilt assembly for tracking solar collector assembly

    DOEpatents

    Almy, Charles; Peurach, John; Sandler, Reuben

    2012-01-24

    A tilt assembly is used with a solar collector assembly of the type comprising a frame, supporting a solar collector, for movement about a tilt axis by pivoting a drive element between first and second orientations. The tilt assembly comprises a drive element coupler connected to the drive element and a driver, the driver comprising a drive frame, a drive arm and a drive arm driver. The drive arm is mounted to the drive frame for pivotal movement about a drive arm axis. Movement on the drive arm mimics movement of the drive element. Drive element couplers can extend in opposite directions from the outer portion of the drive arm, whereby the assembly can be used between adjacent solar collector assemblies in a row of solar collector assemblies.

  14. Dynamic spatially-explicit mass-balance modeling for targeted watershed phosphorus management I: Model development

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Surface waters are frequently impaired by excessive phosphorus (P) from nonpoint sources, especially in regions of intensive livestock agriculture. Despite concerted efforts to apply new management measures, reductions in nonpoint source P loads have been difficult to accomplish. Watershed managem...

  15. A spatially explicit neutral model of beta-diversity in tropical forests.

    PubMed

    Chave, Jérôme; Leigh, Egbert G

    2002-09-01

    To represent species turnover in tropical rain forest, we use a neutral model where a tree's fate is not affected by what species it belongs to, seeds disperse a limited distance from their parents, and speciation is in equilibrium with random extinction. We calculate the similarity function, the probability F(r) that two trees separated by a distance r belong to the same species, assuming that the dispersal kernel P(r), the distribution of seeds about their parents and the prospects of mortality and reproduction, are the same for all trees regardless of their species. If P(r) is radially symmetric Gaussian with mean-square dispersal distance sigma, F(r) can be expressed in closed form. If P(r) is a radially symmetric Cauchy distribution, then, in two-dimensional space, F(r) is proportional to 1/r for large r. Analytical results are compared with individual-based simulations, and the relevance to field observations is discussed. PMID:12167354

  16. Spatially Explicit Estimates of Prey Consumption Reveal a New Krill Predator in the Southern Ocean

    PubMed Central

    Walters, Andrea; Lea, Mary-Anne; van den Hoff, John; Field, Iain C.; Virtue, Patti; Sokolov, Sergei; Pinkerton, Matt H.; Hindell, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    Development in foraging behaviour and dietary intake of many vertebrates are age-structured. Differences in feeding ecology may correlate with ontogenetic shifts in dispersal patterns, and therefore affect foraging habitat and resource utilization. Such life-history traits have important implications in interpreting tropho-dynamic linkages. Stable isotope ratios in the whiskers of sub-yearling southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina; n = 12) were used, in conjunction with satellite telemetry and environmental data, to examine their foraging habitat and diet during their first foraging migration. The trophic position of seals from Macquarie Island (54°30′S, 158°57′E) was estimated using stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) ratios along the length of the whisker, which provided a temporal record of prey intake. Satellite-relayed data loggers provided details on seal movement patterns, which were related to isotopic concentrations along the whisker. Animals fed in waters south of the Polar Front (>60°S) or within Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) Statistical Subareas 88.1 and 88.2, as indicated by both their depleted δ13C (<−20‰) values, and tracking data. They predominantly exploited varying proportions of mesopelagic fish and squid, and crustaceans, such as euphausiids, which have not been reported as a prey item for this species. Comparison of isotopic data between sub-yearlings, and 1, 2 and 3 yr olds indicated that sub-yearlings, limited by their size, dive capabilities and prey capture skills to feeding higher in the water column, fed at a lower trophic level than older seals. This is consistent with the consumption of euphausiids and most probably, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), which constitute an abundant, easily accessible source of prey in water masses used by this age class of seals. Isotopic assessment and concurrent tracking of seals are successfully used here to identify ontogenetic shifts in broad-scale foraging habitat use and diet preferences in a highly migratory predator. PMID:24516515

  17. Testing the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm for spatially explicit reconstruction of vegetation in northern Michigan and Wisconsin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugita, Shinya; Parshall, Tim; Calcote, Randy; Walker, Karen

    2010-09-01

    The Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) overcomes some of the fundamental problems in pollen analysis for quantitative reconstruction of vegetation. LRA first uses the REVEALS model to estimate regional vegetation using pollen data from large sites and then the LOVE model to estimate vegetation composition within the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) at small sites by subtracting the background pollen estimated from the regional vegetation composition. This study tests LRA using training data from forest hollows in northern Michigan (35 sites) and northwestern Wisconsin (43 sites). In northern Michigan, surface pollen from 152-ha and 332-ha lakes is used for REVEALS. Because of the lack of pollen data from large lakes in northwestern Wisconsin, we use pollen from 21 hollows randomly selected from the 43 sites for REVEALS. RSAP indirectly estimated by LRA is comparable to the expected value in each region. A regression analysis and permutation test validate that the LRA-based vegetation reconstruction is significantly more accurate than pollen percentages alone in both regions. Even though the site selection in northwestern Wisconsin is not ideal, the results are robust. The LRA is a significant step forward in quantitative reconstruction of vegetation.

  18. Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes: A Spatially Explicit Approach to Support Sustainable Soil Management

    PubMed Central

    Crossman, Neville D.; MacEwan, Richard J.; Wallace, D. Dugal; Bennett, Lauren T.

    2014-01-01

    Soil degradation has been associated with a lack of adequate consideration of soil ecosystem services. We demonstrate a broadly applicable method for mapping changes in the supply of two priority soil ecosystem services to support decisions about sustainable land-use configurations. We used a landscape-scale study area of 302 km2 in northern Victoria, south-eastern Australia, which has been cleared for intensive agriculture. Indicators representing priority soil services (soil carbon sequestration and soil water storage) were quantified and mapped under both a current and a future 25-year land-use scenario (the latter including a greater diversity of land uses and increased perennial crops and irrigation). We combined diverse methods, including soil analysis using mid-infrared spectroscopy, soil biophysical modelling, and geostatistical interpolation. Our analysis suggests that the future land-use scenario would increase the landscape-level supply of both services over 25 years. Soil organic carbon content and water storage to 30 cm depth were predicted to increase by about 11% and 22%, respectively. Our service maps revealed the locations of hotspots, as well as potential trade-offs in service supply under new land-use configurations. The study highlights the need to consider diverse land uses in sustainable management of soil services in changing agricultural landscapes. PMID:24616632

  19. Assessing Sustainability of Coral Reef Ecosystem Services using a Spatially-Explicit Decision Support Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    Forecasting and communicating the potential outcomes of decision options requires support tools that aid in evaluating alternative scenarios in a user-friendly context and that highlight variables relevant to the decision options and valuable stakeholders. Envision is a GIS-base...

  20. OPTIMIZATION METHODOLOGY FOR LAND USE PATTERNS USING SPATIAL EXPLICIT LANDSCAPE MODELS. (R827169)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  1. A spatially explicit suspended-sediment load model for western Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wise, Daniel R.; O'Connor, Jim

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of the regionally important patterns and factors in suspended-sediment sources and transport could support broad-scale, water-quality management objectives and priorities. Because of biases and limitations of this model, however, these results are most applicable for general comparisons and for broad areas such as large watersheds. For example, despite having similar area, precipitation, and land-use, the Umpqua River Basin generates 68 percent more suspended sediment than the Rogue River Basin, chiefly because of the large area of Coast Range sedimentary province in the Umpqua River Basin. By contrast, the Rogue River Basin contains a much larger area of Klamath terrane rocks, which produce significantly less suspended load, although recent fire disturbance (in 2002) has apparently elevated suspended sediment yields in the tributary Illinois River watershed. Fine-scaled analysis, however, will require more intensive, locally focused measurements.

  2. EnviroAtlas: A Spatially Explicit Tool Combining Climate Change Scenarios and Ecosystem ServicesIndicators

    EPA Science Inventory

    While discussions of global climate change tend to center on greenhouse gases and sea level rise, other factors, such as technological developments, land and energy use, economics, and population growth all play a critical role in understanding climate change. There is increasin...

  3. A spatially explicit suspended-sediment load model for western Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wise, Daniel R.; O'Connor, Jim

    2016-06-27

    Knowledge of the regionally important patterns and factors in suspended-sediment sources and transport could support broad-scale, water-quality management objectives and priorities. Because of biases and limitations of this model, however, these results are most applicable for general comparisons and for broad areas such as large watersheds. For example, despite having similar area, precipitation, and land-use, the Umpqua River Basin generates 68 percent more suspended sediment than the Rogue River Basin, chiefly because of the large area of Coast Range sedimentary province in the Umpqua River Basin. By contrast, the Rogue River Basin contains a much larger area of Klamath terrane rocks, which produce significantly less suspended load, although recent fire disturbance (in 2002) has apparently elevated suspended sediment yields in the tributary Illinois River watershed. Fine-scaled analysis, however, will require more intensive, locally focused measurements.

  4. Spatially explicit modeling of lesser prairie-chicken lek density in Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Timmer, Jennifer M.; Butler, M.J.; Ballard, Warren; Boal, Clint W.; Whitlaw, H.A.

    2014-01-01

    As with many other grassland birds, lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) have experienced population declines in the Southern Great Plains. Currently they are proposed for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act. In addition to a history of land-uses that have resulted in habitat loss, lesser prairie-chickens now face a new potential disturbance from energy development. We estimated lek density in the occupied lesser prairie-chicken range of Texas, USA, and modeled anthropogenic and vegetative landscape features associated with lek density. We used an aerial line-transect survey method to count lesser prairie-chicken leks in spring 2010 and 2011 and surveyed 208 randomly selected 51.84-km(2) blocks. We divided each survey block into 12.96-km(2) quadrats and summarized landscape variables within each quadrat. We then used hierarchical distance-sampling models to examine the relationship between lek density and anthropogenic and vegetative landscape features and predict how lek density may change in response to changes on the landscape, such as an increase in energy development. Our best models indicated lek density was related to percent grassland, region (i.e., the northeast or southwest region of the Texas Panhandle), total percentage of grassland and shrubland, paved road density, and active oil and gas well density. Predicted lek density peaked at 0.39leks/12.96km(2) (SE=0.09) and 2.05leks/12.96km(2) (SE=0.56) in the northeast and southwest region of the Texas Panhandle, respectively, which corresponds to approximately 88% and 44% grassland in the northeast and southwest region. Lek density increased with an increase in total percentage of grassland and shrubland and was greatest in areas with lower densities of paved roads and lower densities of active oil and gas wells. We used the 2 most competitive models to predict lek abundance and estimated 236 leks (CV=0.138, 95% CI=177-306leks) for our sampling area. Our results suggest that managing landscapes to maintain a greater percentage of grassland and shrubland on the landscape with a greater ratio of grasses to shrubs in the northeast Panhandle should promote greater lek density. Furthermore, increases in paved road and active oil and gas well densities may reduce lek density. This information will be useful for future conservation planning efforts for land protection, policy decisions, and decision analyses.

  5. EnviroAtlas: A Spatially Explicit Tool Combining Climate Change Scenarios with Ecosystem Services Indicators

    EPA Science Inventory

    While discussions of global climate change tend to center on greenhouse gases and seal level rise, other factors, such as technological developments, land and energy use, economics, and population growth all play a critical role in understanding climate change. There is increasi...

  6. Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes: a spatially explicit approach to support sustainable soil management.

    PubMed

    Forouzangohar, Mohsen; Crossman, Neville D; MacEwan, Richard J; Wallace, D Dugal; Bennett, Lauren T

    2014-01-01

    Soil degradation has been associated with a lack of adequate consideration of soil ecosystem services. We demonstrate a broadly applicable method for mapping changes in the supply of two priority soil ecosystem services to support decisions about sustainable land-use configurations. We used a landscape-scale study area of 302 km(2) in northern Victoria, south-eastern Australia, which has been cleared for intensive agriculture. Indicators representing priority soil services (soil carbon sequestration and soil water storage) were quantified and mapped under both a current and a future 25-year land-use scenario (the latter including a greater diversity of land uses and increased perennial crops and irrigation). We combined diverse methods, including soil analysis using mid-infrared spectroscopy, soil biophysical modelling, and geostatistical interpolation. Our analysis suggests that the future land-use scenario would increase the landscape-level supply of both services over 25 years. Soil organic carbon content and water storage to 30 cm depth were predicted to increase by about 11% and 22%, respectively. Our service maps revealed the locations of hotspots, as well as potential trade-offs in service supply under new land-use configurations. The study highlights the need to consider diverse land uses in sustainable management of soil services in changing agricultural landscapes.

  7. EVALUATING HABITAT AS A SURROGATE FOR POPULATION VIABILITY USING A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT POPULATION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Because data for conservation planning are always limited, surrogates are often substituted for intractable measurements such as species richness or population viability. We examined the ability of habitat quality to act as a surrogate for population performance for both Red-sho...

  8. Development and evaluation of a spatially-explicit index of Chesapeake Bay health.

    PubMed

    Williams, Michael; Longstaff, Ben; Buchanan, Claire; Llansó, Roberto; Dennison, William

    2009-01-01

    In an effort to better portray changing health conditions in Chesapeake Bay and support restoration efforts, a Bay Health Index (BHI) was developed to assess the ecological effects of nutrient and sediment loading on 15 regions of the estuary. Three water quality and three biological measures were combined to formulate the BHI. Water quality measures of chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and Secchi depth were averaged to create the Water Quality Index (WQI), and biological measures of the phytoplankton and benthic indices of biotic integrity (P-IBI and B-IBI, respectively) and the area of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) were averaged to create the Biotic Index (BI). The WQI and BI were subsequently averaged to give a BHI value representing ecological conditions over the growing season (i.e., March-October). Lower chlorophyll-a concentrations, higher dissolved oxygen concentrations, deeper Secchi depths, higher phytoplankton and benthic indices relative to ecological health-based thresholds, and more extensive SAV area relative to restoration goal areas, characterized the least-impaired regions. The WQI, P-IBI and BHI were significantly correlated with (1) regional river flow (r=-0.64, -0.57 and -0.49, respectively; p<0.01), (2) nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and sediment loads (all positively correlated with flow), and (3) the sum of developed and agricultural land use (highest annual r(2)=0.86, 0.71 and 0.68, respectively) in most reporting regions, indicating that the BHI is strongly regulated by nutrient and sediment loads from these land uses. The BHI uses ecological health-based thresholds that give an accurate representation of the health conditions in Chesapeake Bay and was the basis for an annual, publicly released environmental report card that debuted in 2007.

  9. COMPARING ECOLOGICALLY SCALED LANDSCAPE INDICES WITH A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT POPULATION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Vos et al. (2001) proposed a class of landscape indices they called ecologically scaled. By this they meant that the indices incorporate species-specific characteristics that are assumed to be important for population viability. I used their two ideas of species carrying capaci...

  10. Spatially explicit estimates of prey consumption reveal a new krill predator in the Southern Ocean.

    PubMed

    Walters, Andrea; Lea, Mary-Anne; van den Hoff, John; Field, Iain C; Virtue, Patti; Sokolov, Sergei; Pinkerton, Matt H; Hindell, Mark A

    2014-01-01

    Development in foraging behaviour and dietary intake of many vertebrates are age-structured. Differences in feeding ecology may correlate with ontogenetic shifts in dispersal patterns, and therefore affect foraging habitat and resource utilization. Such life-history traits have important implications in interpreting tropho-dynamic linkages. Stable isotope ratios in the whiskers of sub-yearling southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina; n = 12) were used, in conjunction with satellite telemetry and environmental data, to examine their foraging habitat and diet during their first foraging migration. The trophic position of seals from Macquarie Island (54°30'S, 158°57'E) was estimated using stable carbon (δ(1) (3)C) and nitrogen (δ(15)N) ratios along the length of the whisker, which provided a temporal record of prey intake. Satellite-relayed data loggers provided details on seal movement patterns, which were related to isotopic concentrations along the whisker. Animals fed in waters south of the Polar Front (>60°S) or within Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) Statistical Subareas 88.1 and 88.2, as indicated by both their depleted δ(1) (3)C (<-20‰) values, and tracking data. They predominantly exploited varying proportions of mesopelagic fish and squid, and crustaceans, such as euphausiids, which have not been reported as a prey item for this species. Comparison of isotopic data between sub-yearlings, and 1, 2 and 3 yr olds indicated that sub-yearlings, limited by their size, dive capabilities and prey capture skills to feeding higher in the water column, fed at a lower trophic level than older seals. This is consistent with the consumption of euphausiids and most probably, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), which constitute an abundant, easily accessible source of prey in water masses used by this age class of seals. Isotopic assessment and concurrent tracking of seals are successfully used here to identify ontogenetic shifts in broad-scale foraging habitat use and diet preferences in a highly migratory predator. PMID:24516515

  11. Spatially explicit estimation of aboveground boreal forest biomass in the Yukon River Basin, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ji, Lei; Wylie, Bruce K.; Brown, Dana R. N.; Peterson, Birgit E.; Alexander, Heather D.; Mack, Michelle C.; Rover, Jennifer R.; Waldrop, Mark P.; McFarland, Jack W.; Chen, Xuexia; Pastick, Neal J.

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of aboveground biomass (AGB) in Alaska’s boreal forest is essential to the accurate evaluation of terrestrial carbon stocks and dynamics in northern high-latitude ecosystems. Our goal was to map AGB at 30 m resolution for the boreal forest in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska using Landsat data and ground measurements. We acquired Landsat images to generate a 3-year (2008–2010) composite of top-of-atmosphere reflectance for six bands as well as the brightness temperature (BT). We constructed a multiple regression model using field-observed AGB and Landsat-derived reflectance, BT, and vegetation indices. A basin-wide boreal forest AGB map at 30 m resolution was generated by applying the regression model to the Landsat composite. The fivefold cross-validation with field measurements had a mean absolute error (MAE) of 25.7 Mg ha−1 (relative MAE 47.5%) and a mean bias error (MBE) of 4.3 Mg ha−1(relative MBE 7.9%). The boreal forest AGB product was compared with lidar-based vegetation height data; the comparison indicated that there was a significant correlation between the two data sets.

  12. The National Atlas of Ecosystem Services: Spatially Explicit Characterization of Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA’s Ecosystem Services Research Program (ESRP) is conducting transdisciplinary research to develop tools to enable decision-makers at all levels of governance to proactively conserve ecosystem services. One of these tools is a National Atlas of Ecosystem Services which ...

  13. MTI Focal Plane Assembly Design and Performance

    SciTech Connect

    Ballard, M.; Rienstra, J.L.

    1999-06-17

    The focal plane assembly for the Multispectral Thermal Imager (MTI) consists of sensor chip assemblies, optical filters, and a vacuum enclosure. Sensor chip assemblies, composed of linear detector arrays and readout integrated circuits, provide spatial resolution in the cross-track direction for the pushbroom imager. Optical filters define 15 spectral bands in a range from 0.45 {micro}m to 10.7 {micro}m. All the detector arrays are mounted on a single focal plane and are designed to operate at 75 K. Three pairs of sensor chip assemblies (SCAs) are required to provide cross-track coverage in all 15 spectral bands. Each pair of SCAs includes detector arrays made from silicon, iridium antimonide, and mercury cadmium telluride. Read out integrated circuits multiplex the signals from the detectors to 18 separate video channels. Optical filter assemblies defining the spectral bands are mounted over the linear detector arrays. Each filter assembly consists of several filter strips bonded together side-by-side. The MTI focal plane assembly has been integrated with the rest of the payload and has undergone detailed testing and calibration. This paper includes representative test data for the various spectral bands and the overall performance of the focal plane assembly.

  14. General and explicit equations of motion for mechanical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phohomsiri, Phailaung

    This study presents the new, general forms of the explicit equations of motion for general mechanical systems subjected to holonomic and/or nonholonomic constraints. These constraints may or may not satisfy D'Alembert's principle. In this dissertation we first show that the general, explicit equations of motion for mechanical systems under nonideal constraints can be obtained without any use of generalized inverses. These equations are then shown to be equivalent to those obtained using generalized inverses. Next we derive the more general, explicit equations of motion capable of handling mechanical systems with symmetric, semi-positive definite mass matrices. These new equations are shown to be identical to ones obtained by Udwadia and Kalaba when the mass matrices become symmetric, positive definite. Examples are then provided to show that systems with singular mass matrices can really occur and to demonstrate the use of the new equations. Subsequently, we make use of quasi-velocities as independent variables to describe constrained motion. Based on these quasi-velocities, we generalize the Poincare equations for unconstrained systems and then derive the general, explicit Poincare equations of motion for constrained mechanical systems. These new explicit Poincare equations of motion for constrained systems might be probably considered the most general, explicit equations so far obtained.

  15. Cybersex: regulating sexually explicit expression on the Internet.

    PubMed

    Cate, F H

    1996-01-01

    While the First Amendment restricts the power of the government to control access by adults to sexually explicit expression that is not obscene, the government may restrict access by children, provided that those restrictions do not limit adults to reading only "what is fit for children." Controlling access by children presents special problems in the context of broadcasting, because broadcast programming is accessible to children too young to read and because of the impossibility of segregating adults and children in the audience. The Supreme Court therefore permits the government to require "channeling" of sexually explicit programming to times when fewer unsupervised children are in the audience, to facilitate parental control over children's access to sexually explicit material. Although Internet content includes less than one percent of sexually explicit expression, that material has been the subject of intensive media and government attention. Much of that attention ignores (1) the high level of constitutional protection applicable to non-obscene, sexually explicit expression; (2) features of the Internet which facilitate controlling access by children to sexually explicit expression far more effectively than in broadcasting or print media; and (3) the First Amendment values served by permitting expression of all forms on the Internet. PMID:10160233

  16. Implicit and explicit memory in survivors of chronic interpersonal violence.

    PubMed

    Minshew, Reese; D'Andrea, Wendy

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the relationship of implicit and explicit memory to a range of symptoms in a sample of 27 women with exposure to chronic interpersonal violence (IPV). Participants viewed the first 3 letters ("stems") of trauma-related, general threat, and neutral words; valenced words were matched with neutral words with the same stem. Free recall and a word-stem completion task were used to test explicit and implicit memory, respectively. Participants exhibited increased implicit memory for trauma-related words as compared with both general threat words and neutral "match" words. They also showed increased explicit memory for both general threat and trauma-related words. Finally, although neither implicit nor explicit memory was correlated with PTSD symptoms, implicit memory for trauma-related words was significantly correlated with symptoms associated with ongoing IPV. Interpersonal sensitivity, hostility, and alexithymia were significantly correlated with implicit, but not explicit, memory for trauma words. Somatization, dissociation, and alexithymia were negatively correlated with explicit, but not implicit, memory for general-threat words. These findings suggest that memory processes in survivors of IPV are closely related to the symptom profile associated with complex trauma. Exploring memory processes in survivors of IPV may lend unique insight into the development and maintenance of the symptom profile associated with IPV.

  17. Spatial uncertainty analysis of population models

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, Yetta; King, Anthony Wayne; Schumaker, Nathan; Ashwood, Tom L; Jackson, Barbara L

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for conducting spatial uncertainty analysis of spatial population models, and illustrates the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial population models typically simulate birth, death, and migration on an input map that describes habitat. Typically, only a single reference map is available, but we can imagine that a collection of other, slightly different, maps could be drawn to represent a particular species' habitat. As a first approximation, our approach assumes that spatial uncertainty (i.e., the variation among values assigned to a location by such a collection of maps) is constrained by characteristics of the reference map, regardless of how the map was produced. Our approach produces lower levels of uncertainty than alternative methods used in landscape ecology because we condition our alternative landscapes on local properties of the reference map. Simulated spatial uncertainty was higher near the borders of patches. Consequently, average uncertainty was highest for reference maps with equal proportions of suitable and unsuitable habitat, and no spatial autocorrelation. We used two population viability models to evaluate the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial uncertainty produced larger variation among predictions of a spatially explicit model than those of a spatially implicit model. Spatially explicit model predictions of final female population size varied most among landscapes with enough clustered habitat to allow persistence. In contrast, predictions of population growth rate varied most among landscapes with only enough clustered habitat to support a small population, i.e., near a spatially mediated extinction threshold. We conclude that spatial uncertainty has the greatest effect on persistence when the amount and arrangement of suitable habitat are such that habitat capacity is near the minimum

  18. Spatial Displays and Spatial Instruments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ellis, Stephen R. (Editor); Kaiser, Mary K. (Editor); Grunwald, Arthur J. (Editor)

    1989-01-01

    The conference proceedings topics are divided into two main areas: (1) issues of spatial and picture perception raised by graphical electronic displays of spatial information; and (2) design questions raised by the practical experience of designers actually defining new spatial instruments for use in new aircraft and spacecraft. Each topic is considered from both a theoretical and an applied direction. Emphasis is placed on discussion of phenomena and determination of design principles.

  19. Effect of coordinate frame compatibility on the transfer of implicit and explicit learning across limbs.

    PubMed

    Poh, Eugene; Carroll, Timothy J; Taylor, Jordan A

    2016-09-01

    Insights into the neural representation of motor learning can be obtained by investigating how learning transfers to novel task conditions. We recently demonstrated that visuomotor rotation learning transferred strongly between left and right limbs when the task was performed in a sagittal workspace, which afforded a consistent remapping for the two limbs in both extrinsic and joint-based coordinates. In contrast, transfer was absent when performed in horizontal workspace, where the extrinsically defined perturbation required conflicting joint-based remapping for the left and right limbs. Because visuomotor learning is thought to be supported by both implicit and explicit forms of learning, however, it is unclear to what extent these distinct forms of learning contribute to interlimb transfer. In this study, we assessed the d