Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Discharge and Water Quality in an Arid, Urbanized Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.; Tong, S.; Yang, J.

2011-12-01

Hydrologic and water quality models can provide a general framework to conceptualize and investigate the relationships between climate and water resources. Under a hot and dry climate, highly urbanized watersheds are more vulnerable to changes in climate, such as excess heat and drought. In this study, a comprehensive watershed model, Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF), is used to assess the impacts of future climate change on the stream discharge and water quality in Las Vegas Wash in Nevada, the only surface water body that drains from the Las Vegas Valley (an area with rapid population growth and urbanization) to Lake Mead. In this presentation, the process of model building, calibration and validation, the generation of climate change scenarios, and the assessment of future climate change effects on stream hydrology and quality are demonstrated. The hydrologic and water quality model is developed based on the data from current national databases and existing major land use categories of the watershed. The model is calibrated for stream discharge, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment yield. The climate change scenarios are derived from the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) simulations, and from the recent assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Climate Assessment Tool from US EPA's BASINS is used to assess the effects of likely future climate scenarios on the water quantity and quality in Las Vegas Wash. Also the presentation discusses the consequences of these hydrologic changes, including the deficit supplies of clean water during peak seasons of water demand, increased eutrophication potentials, wetland deterioration, and impacts on wild life habitats.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

2017-07-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating water quality ecosystem services of wetlands under historic and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K.

2013-12-01

Potential hydrologic effects of climate change have been assessed extensively; however, possible impacts of changing climate on in-stream water quality at the watershed scale have received little study. We assessed potential impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality in the mountainous Sprague River watershed, Oregon, USA, where high total phosphorus (TP) and sediment loads are associated with lake eutrophication and mortality of endangered fish species. Additionally, we analyzed water quality impacts of wetland and riparian zone loss and gain under present-day climate and future climate scenarios. We utilized the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with six distinct climate scenarios derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models to assess magnitude and direction of trends in streamflow, sediment and TP fluxes in the mid-21st century (2030-2059). Model results showed little significant trend in average annual streamflow under most climate scenarios, but trends in annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and TP fluxes were more pronounced and were generally increasing. Results also suggest that future loss of present-day wetlands and riparian zones under land use or climatic change could result in substantial increases in sediment and TP loads at the Sprague River outlet.

Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremades, R.; Surminski, S.; Máñez Costa, M.; Hudson, P.; Shrivastava, P.; Gascoigne, J.

2018-01-01

Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Tong, Shilu; Mather, Peter; Fitzgerald, Gerry; McRae, David; Verrall, Ken; Walker, Dylan

2010-01-01

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change. PMID:20616990

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2015-01-01

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Application of Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) to estimate climate variability impacts on nutrient loading from local watersheds

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Prem B. Parajuli; Gary Feng; Theodor D. Leininger; Yongshan Wan; Padmanava Dash

2018-01-01

A vast amount of future climate scenario datasets, created by climate models such as general circulation models (GCMs), have been used in conjunction with watershed models to project future climate variability impact on hydrological processes and water quality. However, these low spatial-temporal resolution datasets are often difficult to downscale spatially and...

Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.

Real options analysis for photovoltaic project under climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Sejong; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2016-08-01

The decision on photovoltaic project depends on the level of climate environments. Changes in temperature and insolation affect photovoltaic output. It is important for investors to consider future climate conditions for determining investments on photovoltaic projects. We propose a real options-based framework to assess economic feasibility of photovoltaic project under climate change. The framework supports investors to evaluate climate change impact on photovoltaic projects under future climate uncertainty.

A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change.

PubMed

Roger, Erin; Duursma, Daisy Englert; Downey, Paul O; Gallagher, Rachael V; Hughes, Lesley; Steel, Jackie; Johnson, Stephen B; Leishman, Michelle R

2015-08-15

Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity.

PubMed

Kissling, W D; Field, R; Korntheuer, H; Heyder, U; Böhning-Gaese, K

2010-07-12

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.

Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

2015-01-01

Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.

Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

2018-01-01

Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

Application of an Integrated Assessment Model with state-level resolution for examining strategies for addressing air, climate and energy goals

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change, and energy goals. GCAM includes technology-rich representations of the energy, transportati...

Validation of non-stationary precipitation series for site-specific impact assessment: Comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The generation of realistic future precipitation scenarios is crucial for assessing their impacts on a range of environmental and socio-economic impact sectors. A scale mismatch exists, however, between the coarse spatial resolution at which global climate models (GCMs) output future climate scenari...

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential future effects of climate change on water resources. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

PubMed

Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bivariate analysis of floods in climate impact assessments.

PubMed

Brunner, Manuela Irene; Sikorska, Anna E; Seibert, Jan

2018-03-01

Climate impact studies regarding floods usually focus on peak discharges and a bivariate assessment of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes is not commonly included. A joint consideration of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, however, is crucial when assessing flood risks for current and future climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology to develop synthetic design hydrographs for future climate conditions that jointly consider peak discharges and hydrograph volumes. First, change factors are derived based on a regional climate model and are applied to observed precipitation and temperature time series. Second, the modified time series are fed into a calibrated hydrological model to simulate runoff time series for future conditions. Third, these time series are used to construct synthetic design hydrographs. The bivariate flood frequency analysis used in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs takes into account the dependence between peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, and represents the shape of the hydrograph. The latter is modeled using a probability density function while the dependence between the design variables peak discharge and hydrograph volume is modeled using a copula. We applied this approach to a set of eight mountainous catchments in Switzerland to construct catchment-specific and season-specific design hydrographs for a control and three scenario climates. Our work demonstrates that projected climate changes have an impact not only on peak discharges but also on hydrograph volumes and on hydrograph shapes both at an annual and at a seasonal scale. These changes are not necessarily proportional which implies that climate impact assessments on future floods should consider more flood characteristics than just flood peaks. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Do We Need Better Climate Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessai, S.; Hulme, M.; Lempert, R.; Pielke, R., Jr.

2009-12-01

Based on a series of international scientific assessments, climate change has been presented to society as a major problem that needs urgently to be tackled. The science that underpins these assessments has been pre-dominantly from the realm of the natural sciences and central to this framing have been ‘projections’ of future climate change (and its impacts on environment and society) under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and using a variety of climate model predictions with embedded assumptions. Central to much of the discussion surrounding adaptation to climate change is the claim - explicit or implicit - that decision makers need accurate and increasingly precise assessments of future impacts of climate change in order to adapt successfully. If true, this claim places a high premium on accurate and precise climate predictions at a range of geographical and temporal scales; such predictions therefore become indispensable, and indeed a prerequisite for, effective adaptation decision-making. But is effective adaptation tied to the ability of the scientific enterprise to predict future climate with accuracy and precision? If so, this may impose a serious and intractable limit on adaptation. This paper proceeds in three sections. It first gathers evidence of claims that climate prediction is necessary for adaptation decision-making. This evidence is drawn from peer-reviewed literature and from published science funding strategies and government policy in a number of different countries. The second part discusses the challenges of climate prediction and why science will consistently be unable to provide accurate and precise predictions of future climate relevant for adaptation (usually at the local/regional level). Section three discusses whether these limits to future foresight represent a limit to adaptation, arguing that effective adaptation need not be limited by a general inability to predict future climate. Given the deep uncertainties involved in climate prediction (and even more so in the prediction of climate impacts) and given that climate is usually only one factor in decisions aimed at climate adaptation, we conclude that the ‘predict and provide’ approach to science in support of climate change adaptation is largely flawed. We consider other important areas of public policy fraught with uncertainty - e.g. earthquake risk, national security, public health - where such a ‘predict and provide’ approach is not attempted. Instead of relying on an approach which has climate prediction (and consequent risk assessment) at its heart - which because of the associated epistemological limits to prediction will consequently act as an apparent limit to adaptation - we need to view adaptation differently, in a manner that opens up options for decision making under uncertainty. We suggest an approach which examines the robustness of adaptation strategies/policies/activities to the myriad of uncertainties that face us in the future, only one of which is the state of climate.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte

2014-10-01

The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure)more » revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.« less

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of ``Dangerous'' Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

2004-04-01

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for ``dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.'' We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ~45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Michigan forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Stephen Handler; Matthew J. Duveneck; Louis Iverson; Emily Peters; Robert M. Scheller; Kirk R. Wythers; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Amy Clark Eagle; Joshua G. Cohen; Rich Corner; Peter B. Reich; Tim Baker; Sophan Chhin; Eric Clark; David Fehringer; Jon Fosgitt; James Gries; Christine Hall; Kimberly R. Hall; Robert Heyd; Christopher L. Hoving; Ines Ibáñez; Don Kuhr; Stephen Matthews; Jennifer Muladore; Knute Nadelhoffer; David Neumann; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Matt Sands; Randy Swaty; Leiloni Wonch; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; Gary Johnson; Lucinda Johnson; David Neitzel; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert. Ziel

2014-01-01

Forests in northern Michigan will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate during the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Michigan's eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate...

Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Stephen Handler; Matthew J. Duveneck; Louis Iverson; Emily Peters; Robert M. Scheller; Kirk R. Wythers; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Kelly Barrett; Randy Kolka; Casey McQuiston; Brian Palik; Peter B. Reich; Clarence Turner; Mark White; Cheryl Adams; Anthony D' Amato; Suzanne Hagell; Patricia Johnson; Rosemary Johnson; Mike Larson; Stephen Matthews; Rebecca Montgomery; Steve Olson; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jack Rajala; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; David Fehringer; Christopher L. Hoving; Gary Johnson; Lucinda Johnson; David Neitzel; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert. Ziel

2014-01-01

Forests in northern Minnesota will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Minnesota's Laurentian Mixed Forest Province to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate changes, and...

Exploring Air-Climate-Energy Impacts with GCAM-USA

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change and energy (ACE) goals. My research focuseson integration of impact factors in GCAM-USA and a...

Nonstationarity RC Workshop Report: Nonstationary Weather Patterns and Extreme Events Informing Design and Planning for Long-Lived Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-11-01

magnitude, intensity, and seasonality of climate. For infrastructure projects, relevant design life often exceeds 30 years—a period of time of...uncertainty about future statistical properties of climate at time and spatial scales required for planning and design purposes. Information...about future statistical properties of climate at time and spatial scales required for planning and design , and for assessing future operational

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2018-01-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (−10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. PMID:29628526

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

BOREAL FOREST CARBON STOCKS AND WOOD SUPPLY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE AND SPECIES AVAILABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

The paper assesses the role in boreal forest growth played by environment. It examines past changes in climate coupled with glaciation, and future changes in climate coupled with agricultural land use and tree species availability. The objective was to define and evaluate potenti...

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio-economic perspective). In our presentation we will show the cases of Peru and the Philippines, and discuss the implications for agriculture policies and risk management.

Unified Synthesis Product (USP) Recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, T. C.

2009-05-01

The USP identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. For example, our knowledge of changes in tornadoes, hail, and ice storms is quite limited, making it difficult to know if and how such events have changed as climate has warmed, and how they might change in the future. Research on ecological responses to climate change also is limited, as is our understanding of social responses. The Report identifies the five most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. This includes ecosystems as well as economic systems, human health, and the built environment. 2. Refine ability to project climate change at local scales. One of the main messages to emerge from the past decade of synthesis and assessments is that while climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. The United States has tremendous potential to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society. 4. Improve understanding of and ability to identify thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in the climate system. Paleoclimatic data shows that climate can and has changed quite abruptly when certain thresholds are crossed. Similarly, there is evidence that ecological and human systems can undergo abrupt change when tipping points are reached. 5. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change in the context of multiple stresses. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is essential to improve understanding of how the capacity to adapt to a changing climate might be exercised, and the vulnerabilities to climate change and other environmental stresses that might remain. Results from these efforts would inform future assessments that continue building our understanding of humanity's impacts on climate, and climate's impacts on us. Such assessments will continue to play a role in helping the U.S. respond to changing conditions. A vision for future climate change assessments includes both sustained extensive practitioner and stakeholder involvement, and periodic, targeted, scientifically rigorous reports similar to the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products.

Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew J.; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime

2016-08-11

Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing vulnerability. Use of the HCCVI approach comprised “Phase II” of the assessment. This approach uses summaries of GIS data and models to develop a series of numeric indices for components of vulnerability. We incorporated many of the data sources used in Phase I, but added the results of several other data sources, including climate envelope modeling and vegetation dynamics modeling. The results of Phase II were high and low numeric vulnerability ratings for mid-century and the end of century for each ecosystem. The high and low ratings represented the potential range of vulnerability scores owing to uncertainties in future climate conditions and ecosystem effects.Of the 12 ecosystems assessed in the first approach, five were rated as having high vulnerability (Caribbean Coastal Mangrove, Caribbean Montane Wet Elfin Forest, East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loess Bluff Forest, Edwards Plateau Limestone Shrubland, and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland). Six ecosystems had medium vulnerability, and one ecosystem had low vulnerability. For the two ecosystems assessed with both approaches, vulnerability ratings generally agreed. The assessment concluded by comparing the two approaches, identifying critical research needs, and making suggestions for future ecosystem vulnerability assessments in the Southeast and beyond. Research needs include reducing uncertainty in the degree of climate exposure likely in the future, as well as acquiring more information on how climate might affect biotic interactions and hydrologic processes. Ideally, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment would include both the narrative summaries that resulted from the synthesis in Phase I, as well as a numeric index that incorporates uncertainty as in Phase II.

Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johannesson, G

2010-03-17

Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that themore » average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.« less

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for releasemore » in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.« less

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

PubMed

Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

2015-08-28

There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.

Report from the International Permafrost Association: state of permafrost in the first decade of the 21st century

Treesearch

J. Brown; V.E. Romanovsky

2008-01-01

Recent assessments have considered present-day and future responses of permafrost terrain to climate change; included are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and United Nations Environment Programme assessments (Romanovsky et al., 2007), the on-going National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) annual...

Assessing long-term hydrologic impact of climate change using ensemble approach and comparison with Global Gridded Model-A case study on Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potential impacts of climate change on hydrologic components of Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed were assessed using climate datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Historical and future ensembles of downscaled precipitation an...

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

PubMed

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate risks on potato yield in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Lall, Upmanu

2016-04-01

The yield of potatoes is affected by water and temperature during the growing season. We study the impact of a suite of climate variables on potato yield at country level. More than ten climate variables related to the growth of potato are considered, including the seasonal rainfall and temperature, but also extreme conditions at different averaging periods from daily to monthly. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to jointly consider the risk of heat stress, cold stress, wet and drought. Future climate risks are investigated through the projection of future climate data. This study contributes to assess the risks of present and future climate risks on potatoes yield, especially the risks of extreme events, which could be used to guide better sourcing strategy and ensure food security in the future.

Quantifying the intra-annual uncertainties in climate change assessment over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is an inevitable feature of climate change impact assessments. Understanding and quantifying different sources of uncertainty is of high importance, which can help modeling agencies improve the current models and scenarios. In this study, we have assessed the future changes in three climate variables (i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US. To conduct the study, 10 statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs from two downscaling methods (i.e. BCSD and MACA) were utilized at 1/16 degree spatial resolution for the historical period of 1970-2000 and future period of 2010-2099. For the future projections, two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Furthermore, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was employed to develop a probabilistic future projection for each climate variable. Results indicate superiority of BMA simulations compared to individual models. Increasing temperature and precipitation are projected at annual timescale. However, the changes are not uniform among different seasons. Model uncertainty shows to be the major source of uncertainty, while downscaling uncertainty significantly contributes to the total uncertainty, especially in summer.

Responding to climate change in New York State: the ClimAID integrated assessment for effective climate change adaptation in New York State. Final report.

PubMed

2011-12-01

Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.

Assessing Climate Change Perceptions, Management Strategies, and Information Needs for Indiana Agricultural and Forestry Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherkauer, K. A.; Chin, N.

2016-12-01

The agricultural and forestry sectors in the state of Indiana are highly dependent on climate and, subsequently, highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Higher temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, more widespread prevalence of pests and pathogens, and increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events could all have negative effects on these two sectors in the future. Agricultural and forest producers are already modifying their management strategies in response to perceptions of changes in climate risk, but such responses have been primarily reactive in nature and, in many cases, demonstrate a disconnect between scientific findings and stakeholder perceptions of the greatest climate risks. This research has been conducted to help improve understanding of climate change risks to agriculture and forestry in Indiana; stakeholder perceptions of climate risks and their current management strategies; and the effectiveness of these management strategies for dealing with current and future climate risk. Sector-specific focus groups, expert panel assessments and surveys have all been utilized in this work, which will also contribute to the new Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment report.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century

PubMed Central

Alessandri, Andrea; De Felice, Matteo; Zeng, Ning; Mariotti, Annarita; Pan, Yutong; Cherchi, Annalisa; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Ruti, Paolo; Artale, Vincenzo

2014-01-01

The warm-temperate regions of the globe characterized by dry summers and wet winters (Mediterranean climate; MED) are especially vulnerable to climate change. The potential impact on water resources, ecosystems and human livelihood requires a detailed picture of the future changes in this unique climate zone. Here we apply a probabilistic approach to quantitatively address how and why the geographic distribution of MED will change based on the latest-available climate projections for the 21st century. Our analysis provides, for the first time, a robust assessment of significant northward and eastward future expansions of MED over both the Euro-Mediterranean and western North America. Concurrently, we show a significant 21st century replacement of the equatorward MED margins by the arid climate type. Moreover, future winters will become wetter and summers drier in both the old and newly established MED zones. Should these projections be realized, living conditions in some of the most densely populated regions in the world will be seriously jeopardized. PMID:25448867

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Rohat, Guillaume

2018-03-19

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability-under varying levels of socioeconomic development-and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change. PMID:29562727

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

1998-01-01

Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

2016-04-01

Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

PubMed

Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

2014-04-09

Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Nichols, Gordon L.; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C.

2014-01-01

Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden. PMID:24722542

Using Climate Science to Inform Local Planning: Challenges and Successes from the Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.

2014-12-01

Much of our society, including our agriculture, our dependence on natural resources, and our infrastructure, is built on the assumption that individual weather events and average conditions may vary from year to year, but over the long term the climate of a given region can be predicted based on past climate "normals". This assumption is no longer valid; today, human-induced climate change is altering average conditions as well as the risk of many types of weather extremes. Observed trends and projected future changes in mean climate and in the frequency and severity of temperature extremes, heat waves, heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, and storms are clearly documented in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as by a host of other regional impact assessments. While future projections are inherently uncertain, these assessments make one fact clear: future planning for any sector or region affected by climate change that fails to take into account long-term trends will end up with the wrong answer. This concept of non-stationarity, that future climate will differ from that experienced in the past, challenges regional planners, water managers, city managers and engineers to incorporate future climate change into present-day planning. From the perspective of scientists, translating climate projections into information that can be used by stakeholders and decision-makers presents a challenge of equal magnitude. Here, I draw on my experience working with the agriculture, ecosystem, energy, health, infrastructure, insurance, and water sectors to propose a framework for, and highlight some of the main challenges inherent to, incorporating climate information into practical, on-the-ground planning at the local to regional scale. This approach, which we have developed through working with a range of cities, states, and regions including Austin, Cambridge, California, Chicago, Delaware, the Northeast, and most recently Washington DC, is based on identifying known vulnerabilities within the systems of interest, and developing appropriate information compatible with existing planning mechanisms to ensure the relevance and utility of the climate information for increasing resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate risks.

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

2011-01-01

The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta’s biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as ‘extremely invasive’, with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is ‘extremely invasive’ with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is ‘highly invasive’ with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change. PMID:27768758

"Participatory Cli-Fi": Crowdsourcing Voicemails from the Future to Spark Engagement and Discern Perceptions of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stovall, G.; Eklund, K.; Redsecker, K.; Hernandez, T.; Pfirman, S. L.; Orlove, B. S.

2016-12-01

Communicating climate science alone is not enough to engage the public with climate change: the gap between the abstract science and its impact on their future lives is often too great. We constructed FutureCoast, a collaborative game, to use participatory storymaking as the art that bridges that gap. The FutureCoast game pretended the voicemail system of the future "had a leak in it" and invited people to call and leave voicemail messages that seem to have leaked from the future. These crowdsourced voicemails are short first-person stories that often create complex, visceral experiences of potential climate impacts in listeners. We transcribed and coded this audio for content and affect, finding both a wide array of anticipated climate futures and trends in public sentiment about climate related impacts. Our analysis found the public engages with climate change in both rational and emotional manners which should be considered when motivating them to action. This presentation highlights our methodology and assessment of innovative gameful engagement, and summarizes how the FutureCoast "participatory cli-fi" approach has been employed in community and classroom settings after the close of the active period of the game.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-05

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-01

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Han, Jingcheng; Fan, Yurui

2016-04-01

Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and outdoor recreation participation in the Southern United States

Treesearch

J.M. Bowker; Ashley E. Askew; Neelam Poudyal; Stanley J. Zarnoch; Lynne Seymour; H. Ken Cordell

2014-01-01

In this chapter we begin to assess the potential effects of climate change on future outdoor recreation in the South, a region spanning 13 states from Virginia to Texas (Chapter 1). Our goal is to provide some useful insights about future natural resource-based recreation-an important nontimber product derived from southern forests-in the face of climate change. We...

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

NASA and the National Climate Assessment: Promoting awareness of NASA Earth science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.

2014-12-01

NASA Earth science observations, models, analyses, and applications made significant contributions to numerous aspects of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) report and are contributing to sustained climate assessment activities. The agency's goal in participating in the NCA was to ensure that NASA scientific resources were made available to understand the current state of climate change science and climate change impacts. By working with federal agency partners and stakeholder communities to develop and write the report, the agency was able to raise awareness of NASA climate science with audiences beyond the traditional NASA community. To support assessment activities within the NASA community, the agency sponsored two competitive programs that not only funded research and tools for current and future assessments, but also increased capacity within our community to conduct assessment-relevant science and to participate in writing assessments. Such activities fostered the ability of graduate students, post-docs, and senior researchers to learn about the science needs of climate assessors and end-users, which can guide future research activities. NASA also contributed to developing the Global Change Information System, which deploys information from the NCA to scientists, decision makers, and the public, and thus contributes to climate literacy. Finally, NASA satellite imagery and animations used in the Third NCA helped the pubic and decision makers visualize climate changes and were frequently used in social media to communicate report key findings. These resources are also key for developing educational materials that help teachers and students explore regional climate change impacts and opportunities for responses.

America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify policies that might provide incentives for maladaptive behavior; bolster scientific research regarding adaptation; and encourage adaptation on a global scale through national programs with international components.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-05-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

2014-05-01

Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide leaching to groundwater in a changing climate, and that these indirect effects outweigh the direct effects of changes in climate driving variables. Due to the large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments, drawing firm conclusions is not possible, but this type of analysis provides indications of likely future concerns and can be used as an early-warning tool to inform the general public, responsible public authorities and decision makers.

Towards the next generation of climate change assessment: learning from past experiences to inform a sustainable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mach, K. J.; Field, C. B.

2017-12-01

Over decades, assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and many others has bolstered understanding of the climate problem: unequivocal warming, pervasive impacts, and serious risks from continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases. Societies are increasingly responding with early actions to decarbonize energy systems and prepare for impacts. This emerging era of climate solutions creates a need for new approaches to assessment that emphasize learning from ongoing real-world experiences and that help close the gap between aspirations and the pace of progress. Against this backdrop, the presentation will take stock of recent advances and challenges in assessment, especially drawing from analysis of climate change assessment. Four assessment priorities will be considered: (1) integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results, (2) applying rigorous expert judgment in evaluating knowledge and uncertainties, (3) exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and (4) incorporating interactions among experts and decision-makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, the presentation will critique both opportunities and pitfalls, outlining possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. It will evaluate, in particular, lessons from risk-based approaches; strategies for transparently acknowledging persistent uncertainties and contested priorities; ways to minimize biases and foster creativity in expert judgments; scenario-based assessment of surprises, deep uncertainties, and decision-making implications; and opportunities for broadening the conception of expertise and engaging different decision-makers and stakeholders. Overall, these approaches can advance assessment products and processes as a basis for sustained dialogue supporting decision-making.

Air-climate-energy investigations with a state-level Integrated Assessment Model: GCAM-USA

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change, and energy goals.  GCAM includes technology-rich representations of the energy, transportatio...

Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments

Treesearch

Yohay Carmel; Curtis H. Flather

2006-01-01

Modeling the future distribution of keystone species has proved to be an important approach to assessing the potential ecological consequences of climate change (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996; Hansen et al. 2001). Predictions of range shifts are typically based on empirical models derived from simple correlative relationships between climatic characteristics of occupied and...

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Central Hardwoods ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Leslie Brandt; Hong He; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Patricia Butler; Stephen Handler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Matthew Albrecht; Richard Blume-Weaver; Paul Deizman; John DePuy; William D. Dijak; Gary Dinkel; Songlin Fei; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Michael Leahy; Stephen Matthews; Paul Nelson; Brad Oberle; Judi Perez; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; John Shuey; Adam B. Smith; Charles Studyvin; John M. Tirpak; Jeffery W. Walk; Wen J. Wang; Laura Watts; Dale Weigel; Steve Westin

2014-01-01

The forests in the Central Hardwoods Region will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Central Hardwoods Region of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends,...

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J.; Peel, Murray C.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K.

2017-01-01

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability.

PubMed

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J; Peel, Murray C; Phillips, Thomas J; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K

2017-07-24

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

2014-05-01

Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A climate change assessment is performed for climate change scenarios based on the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for a set of statistically downscaled meteorological data. The future performance of the multi-purpose multi-reservoir system is quantified and possible intensifications of trade-offs between management goals or reservoir utilizations are shown.

Projecting climate change in the United States: A technical document supporting the Forest Service RPA 2010 Assessment

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; David P. Coulson; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence

2014-01-01

A set of climate change projections for the United States was developed for use in the 2010 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment. These climate projections, along with projections for population dynamics, economic growth, and land use change in the United States, comprise the RPA scenarios and are used in the RPA Assessment to project future renewable resource conditions...

Regional Climate Service in Northern Germany -The North German Climate Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, I.; Von Storch, H.

2012-12-01

The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.

Open access to Water Indicators for Climate Change Adaptation: proof-of-concept for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lottle, Lorna; Arheimer, Berit; Gyllensvärd, Frida; Dejong, Fokke; Ludwig, Fulco; Hutjes, Ronald; Martinez, Bernat

2017-04-01

Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is still in the development phase and will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate and climate dependent sectors in Europe and worldwide. C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers and selected sectorial impacts. The aim of these indicators will be to support adaptation and mitigation. This presentation will show one service already operational as a proof-of-concept of this future climate service. The project "Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation" (SWICCA) has developed a sectorial information service for water management. It offers readily available climate-impact data, for open access from the web-site http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/. The development is user-driven with the overall goal to speed up the workflow in climate-change adaptation of water management across Europe. The service is co-designed by consultant engineers and agencies in 15 case-studies spread out over the continent. SWICCA has an interactive user-interface, which shows maps and graphs, and facilitates data download in user-friendly formats. In total, more than 900 open dataset are given for various hydrometeorological (and a few socioeconomical) variables, model ensembles, resolutions, time-periods and RCPs. The service offers more than 40 precomputed climate impact indicators (CIIs) and transient time-series of 4 essential climate variables ECVs) with high spatial and temporal resolution. To facilitate both near future and far future assessments, SWICCA provides the indicators for different time ranges; normally, absolute values are given for a reference period (e.g. 1971-2000) and the expected future changes for different 30-year periods, such as early century (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). An ensemble of model results is always given to indicate confidence in the estimates. The SWICCA demonstrator also includes user guidance, information sheets, tutorials, and links to other relevant websites. The aim of this service is to provide research data and guidance for climate impact assessments in the water sector. The main target group is consulting engineers (so called Purveyors) working with climate change adaptation in the water sector. By using indicators, climate impact assessments can be done without having to run a full production chain from raw climate model results - instead the indicators can be included in the local workflow with local methods applied, to facilitate decision-making and strategies to meet the future. Working with real users will ensure that useful data is inserted into the C3S Climate Data Store (CDS).

Impacts of fine particulate matter on premature mortality under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Allen, R.; Lim, C. H.

2016-12-01

Climate change modulates concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, surface PM2.5 is significantly associated with respiratory diseases and premature mortality. In this study, we assess the response of PM2.5 concentration to climate change in the future (end of 21st century) and its effects on year of life lost (YLL) and premature mortality. We use outputs from five models participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) to evaluate climate change effects on PM2.5: for present climate with current aerosol emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, and for future climate, also with present-day aerosol emissions, but with end-of-the century greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea-ice. The results show that climate change is associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration. Combined with global future population data from the United Nation (UN), we also find an increase in premature mortality and YLL.

Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Milka, Radojević; Caminade, Cyril; Gachon, Philippe

2014-12-02

Since the 1980s, populations of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus have become established in south-eastern, eastern and central United States, extending to approximately 40°N. Ae. albopictus is a vector of a wide range of human pathogens including dengue and chikungunya viruses, which are currently emerging in the Caribbean and Central America and posing a threat to North America. The risk of Ae. albopictus expanding its geographic range in North America under current and future climate was assessed using three climatic indicators of Ae. albopictus survival: overwintering conditions (OW), OW combined with annual air temperature (OWAT), and a linear index of precipitation and air temperature suitability expressed through a sigmoidal function (SIG). The capacity of these indicators to predict Ae. albopictus occurrence was evaluated using surveillance data from the United States. Projected future climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus was obtained using output of nine Regional Climate Model experiments (RCMs). OW and OWAT showed >90% specificity and sensitivity in predicting observed Ae. albopictus occurrence and also predicted moderate to high risk of Ae. albopictus invasion in Pacific coastal areas of the Unites States and Canada under current climate. SIG also well predicted observed Ae. albopictus occurrence (ROC area under the curve was 0.92) but predicted wider current climatic suitability in the north-central and north-eastern United States and south-eastern Canada. RCM output projected modest (circa 500 km) future northward range expansion of Ae. albopictus by the 2050s when using OW and OWAT indicators, but greater (600-1000 km) range expansion, particularly in eastern and central Canada, when using the SIG indicator. Variation in future possible distributions of Ae. albopictus was greater amongst the climatic indicators used than amongst the RCM experiments. Current Ae. albopictus distributions were well predicted by simple climatic indicators and northward range expansion was predicted for the future with climate change. However, current and future predicted geographic distributions of Ae. albopictus varied amongst the climatic indicators used. Further field studies are needed to assess which climatic indicator is the most accurate in predicting regions suitable for Ae. albopictus survival in North America.

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE PAGES

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Aiguo

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

PubMed

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Agricultural Land Use, and Regional Carbon Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.

2014-12-01

Changes in land use have caused a net release of carbon to the atmosphere over the last centuries and decades1. On one hand, agriculture accounts for 52% and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively. On the other hand, many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management2. From this perspective, land use change that reduces emissions and/or increases carbon sequestration can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As shown in Figure 1, this paper is an integrated study of climate impacts, land uses, and regional carbon changes to examine, link and assess climate impacts on regional carbon changes via impacts on land uses. This study will contribute to previous research in two aspects: impacts of climate change on future land uses under an uncertain future world and projections of regional carbon dynamics due to changes in future land use. Specifically, we will examine how land use change under historical climate change using observed data and then project changes in land use under future climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). More importantly, we will investigate future land use under uncertainties with changes in agricultural development and social-economic conditions along with a changing climate. By doing this, we then could integrate with existing efforts by USGS land-change scientists developing and parameterizing models capable of projecting changes across a full spectrum of land use and land cover changes and track the consequences on ecosystem carbon to provide better information for land managers and policy makers when informing climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R. F.; Wilby, R. L.; Brown, K.; Watkiss, P.; Betts, Richard A.; Murphy, James M.; Lowe, Jason A.

2018-06-01

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

To Tip or Not to Tip: The Case of the Congo Basin Rainforest Realm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, S.; Bednar, J. E.; Fath, B. D.; Winter, P. A.

2017-12-01

The future response of the Congo basin rainforest, the second largest tropical carbon reservoir, to climate change is still under debate. Different Climate projections exist stating increase and decrease in rainfall and different changes in rainfall patterns. Within this study we assess all options of climate change possibilities to define the climatic thresholds of Congo basin rainforest stability and assess the limiting conditions for rainforest persistence. We use field data from 199 research plots from the Western Congo basin to calibrate and validate a complex BioGeoChemistry model (BGC-MAN) and assess model performance against an array of possible future climates. Next, we analyze the reasons for the occurrence of tipping points, their spatial and temporal probability of occurrence, will present effects of hysteresis and derive probabilistic spatial-temporal resilience landscapes for the region. Additionally, we will analyze attractors of forest growth dynamics and assess common linear measures for early warning signals of sudden shifts in system dynamics for their robustness in the context of the Congo Basin case, and introduce the correlation integral as a nonlinear measure of risk assessment.

Projected Changes to Streamflow Characteristics in Quebec Basins as Simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.; Khaliq, M.; Lehner, B.; Laprise, R.; Roy, R.

2011-12-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and increase in precipitation for some regions around the world, including the northern mid- to high-latitudes, is expected in future climate. This will have an impact on mean and extreme flow characteristics, which need to be assessed for better development of adaptation strategies. Analysis of the mean and extreme streamflow characteristics for Quebec (North-eastern Canada) basins in current climate and their projected changes in future climate are assessed using a 10 member ensemble of current (1970 - 1999) and future (2041 - 2070) Canadian RCM (CRCM4) simulations. Validation of streamflow characteristics, performed by comparing modeled values with those observed, available from the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) shows that the model captures reasonably well the high flows. Results suggest increase in mean and 10 year return levels of 1 day high flows, which appear significant for most of the northern basins.

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

Application of the coastal generalized ecosystem model (CGEM) to assess the impacts of a potential future climate scenario on northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

EPA Science Inventory

Mechanistic hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico are being used to guide policy goals for Mississippi River nutrient loading reductions. However, to date, these models have not examined the effects of both nutrient loads and future climate. Here, we simulate a future c...

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

2018-02-01

Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

Transferring climate research results to stakeholder needs in Northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, Insa

2013-04-01

The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also, numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Fung, Emily; Hannah, Lee; Navarro-Racines, Carlos E; Roubik, David W; Ricketts, Taylor H; Harvey, Celia A; Donatti, Camila I; Läderach, Peter; Locatelli, Bruno; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

2017-09-26

Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73-88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46-76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8-18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46-59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10-22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34-51% of other areas. Finally, in 31-33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network.

PubMed

Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Parks, Sean A; Moritz, Max A; Miller, Carol

2017-08-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, United States, México-NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071-2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (<10%) could be critical for future conservation plans, as they will host climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in nonprotected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM protected areas. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Using AQUACROP to model the impacts of future climates on crop production and possible adaptation strategies in Sardinia and Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Neil; Benabdallah, Sihem; Gouda, Nadine; Hummel, Franz; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Meyer, Swen; Soddu, Antonino; Woess-Gallasch, Susanne

2014-05-01

A work package in the FP-7 funded CLIMB Project - Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk through an Integrated Monitoring and Modeling System had the goal of assessing socioeconomic vulnerability in two super-sites in future climates (2040-2070). The work package had deliverables to describe of agricultural adaptation measures appropriate to each site under future water availability scenarios and assess the risk of income losses due to water shortages in agriculture. The FAO model AQUACROP was used to estimate losses of agricultural productivity and indicate possible adaptation strategies. The presentation will focus on two interesting crops which show extreme vulnerability to expected changes in climate; irrigated lettuce in Sardinia and irrigated tomatoes in Tunisia. Modelling methodology, results and possible adaptation strategies will be presented.

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Mladenoff; Emily Peters; Kirk R. Wythers; Weimin Xi; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Linda R. Parker; Amy J. Amman; Brian Bogaczyk; Christine Handler; Ellen Lesch; Peter B. Reich; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Sami Khanal; Feng Liu; Tara Bal; Dustin Bronson; Andrew Burton; Jim Ferris; Jon Fosgitt; Shawn Hagan; Erin Johnston; Evan Kane; Colleen Matula; Ryan O' Connor; Dale Higgins; Matt St. Pierre; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; David Fehringer; Christopher L. Hoving; Gary Johnson; David Neitzel; Michael Notaro; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert Ziel

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate...

A System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) to Climate Change

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2011-01-01

Sustained conservation of species requires integration of future climate change effects, but few tools exist to assist managers. The System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) identifies the relative vulnerability or resilience of vertebrate species to climate change. Designed for managers, the SAVS is an easily applied tool that uses a questionnaire of 22...

Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Shrestha, Manoj K; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne

2017-07-15

Mediterranean catchments experience already high seasonal variability alternating between dry and wet periods, and are more vulnerable to future climate and land use changes. Quantification of catchment response under future changes is particularly crucial for better water resources management. This study assessed the combined effects of future climate and land use changes on water yield, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads of the Mediterranean Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia by means of the eco-hydrological model SWAT. Six different global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and a hypothetical land use change were used for future simulations. The climate models suggested a high degree of uncertainty, varying seasonally, in both flow and nutrient loads; however, a decreasing trend was observed. Average monthly TN and TP load decreased up to -55% and -56% respectively and were found to be dependent on flow magnitude. The annual and seasonal water yield and nutrient loads may only slightly be affected by envisaged land uses, but significantly altered by intermediate and high emission scenarios, predominantly during the spring season. The combined scenarios indicated the possibility of declining flow in future but nutrient enrichment in summer months, originating mainly from the land use scenario, that may elevate the risk of algal blooms in downstream drinking water reservoir. Hence, careful planning of future water resources in a Mediterranean catchment requires the assessment of combined effects of multiple climate models and land use scenarios on both water quantity and quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-11-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

2016-12-01

One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

2012-12-01

As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential application in other settings.

A Statistical Modeling Framework for Projecting Future Ambient Ozone and its Health Impact due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2014-01-01

The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041–2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999–2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: −7% to 24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models. PMID:24764746

Future climate stimulates population out-breaks by relaxing constraints on reproduction.

PubMed

Heldt, Katherine A; Connell, Sean D; Anderson, Kathryn; Russell, Bayden D; Munguia, Pablo

2016-09-14

When conditions are stressful, reproduction and population growth are reduced, but when favourable, reproduction and population size can boom. Theory suggests climate change is an increasingly stressful environment, predicting extinctions or decreased abundances. However, if favourable conditions align, such as an increase in resources or release from competition and predation, future climate can fuel population growth. Tests of such population growth models and the mechanisms by which they are enabled are rare. We tested whether intergenerational increases in population size might be facilitated by adjustments in reproductive success to favourable environmental conditions in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Herbivorous amphipod populations responded to future climate by increasing 20 fold, suggesting that future climate might relax environmental constraints on fecundity. We then assessed whether future climate reduces variation in mating success, boosting population fecundity and size. The proportion of gravid females doubled, and variance in phenotypic variation of male secondary sexual characters (i.e. gnathopods) was significantly reduced. While future climate can enhance individual growth and survival, it may also reduce constraints on mechanisms of reproduction such that enhanced intra-generational productivity and reproductive success transfers to subsequent generations. Where both intra and intergenerational production is enhanced, population sizes might boom.

Low fidelity of CORDEX and their driving experiments indicates future climatic uncertainty over Himalayan watersheds of Indus basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasson, Shabeh ul; Böhner, Jürgen; Chishtie, Farrukh

2018-03-01

Assessment of future water availability from the Himalayan watersheds of Indus Basin (Jhelum, Kabul and upper Indus basin—UIB) is a growing concern for safeguarding the sustainable socioeconomic wellbeing downstream. This requires, before all, robust climate change information from the present-day state-of-the-art climate models. However, the robustness of climate change projections highly depends upon the fidelity of climate modeling experiments. Hence, this study assesses the fidelity of seven dynamically refined (0.44° ) experiments, performed under the framework of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment for South Asia (CX-SA), and additionally, their six coarse-resolution driving datasets participating in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5). We assess fidelity in terms of reproducibility of the observed climatology of temperature and precipitation, and the seasonality of the latter for the historical period (1971-2005). Based on the model fidelity results, we further assess the robustness or uncertainty of the far future climate (2061-2095), as projected under the extreme-end warming scenario of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Our results show that the CX-SA and their driving CMIP5 experiments consistently feature low fidelity in terms of the chosen skill metrics, suggesting substantial cold (6-10 ° C) and wet (up to 80%) biases and underestimation of observed precipitation seasonality. Surprisingly, the CX-SA are unable to outperform their driving datasets. Further, the biases of CX-SA and of their driving CMIP5 datasets are higher in magnitude than their projected changes under RCP8.5—and hence under less extreme RCPs—by the end of 21st century, indicating uncertain future climates for the Indus Basin watersheds. Higher inter-dataset disagreements of both CMIP5 and CX-SA for their simulated historical precipitation and for its projected changes reinforce uncertain future wet/dry conditions whereas the CMIP5 projected warming is less robust owing to higher historical period uncertainty. Interestingly, a better agreement among those CX-SA experiments that have been obtained through downscaling different CMIP5 experiments with the same regional climate model (RCM) indicates the RCMs' ability of modulating the influence of lateral boundary conditions over a large domain. These findings, instead of suggesting the usual skill-based identification of 'reasonable' global or regional low fidelity experiments, rather emphasize on a paradigm shift towards improving their fidelity by exploiting the potential of meso-to-local scale climate models—preferably of those that can solely resolve global-to-local scale climatic processes—in terms of microphysics, resolution and explicitly resolved convections. Additionally, an extensive monitoring of the nival regime within the Himalayan watersheds will reduce the observational uncertainty, allowing for a more robust fidelity assessment of the climate modeling experiments.

Climate Change Through a Poverty Lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

2017-12-01

Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.

Climate change through a poverty lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallegatte, Stephane; Rozenberg, Julie

2017-04-01

Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching--a regional scale assessment in Sweden.

PubMed

Steffens, Karin; Jarvis, Nicholas; Lewan, Elisabet; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Kjellström, Erik; Moeys, Julien

2015-05-01

Climate change is not only likely to improve conditions for crop production in Sweden, but also to increase weed pressure and the need for herbicides. This study aimed at assessing and contrasting the direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching to groundwater in a major crop production region in south-west Sweden with the help of the regional pesticide fate and transport model MACRO-SE. We simulated 37 out of the 41 herbicides that are currently approved for use in Sweden on eight major crop types for the 24 most common soil types in the region. The results were aggregated accounting for the fractional coverage of the crop and the area sprayed with a particular herbicide. For simulations of the future, we used projections of five different climate models as model driving data and assessed three different future scenarios: (A) only changes in climate, (B) changes in climate and land-use (altered crop distribution), and (C) changes in climate, land-use, and an increase in herbicide use. The model successfully distinguished between leachable and non-leachable compounds (88% correctly classified) in a qualitative comparison against regional-scale monitoring data. Leaching was dominated by only a few herbicides and crops under current climate and agronomic conditions. The model simulations suggest that the direct effects of an increase in temperature, which enhances degradation, and precipitation which promotes leaching, cancel each other at a regional scale, resulting in a slight decrease in leachate concentrations in a future climate. However, the area at risk of groundwater contamination doubled when indirect effects of changes in land-use and herbicide use, were considered. We therefore concluded that it is important to consider the indirect effects of climate change alongside the direct effects and that effective mitigation strategies and strict regulation are required to secure future (drinking) water resources. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ensemble tropical-extratropical cyclone coastal flood hazard assessment with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orton, P. M.; Lin, N.; Colle, B.

2016-12-01

A challenge with quantifying future changes in coastal flooding for the U.S. East Coast is that climate change has varying effects on different types of storms, in addition to raising mean sea levels. Moreover, future flood hazard uncertainties are large and come from many sources. Here, a new coastal flood hazard assessment approach is demonstrated that separately evaluates and then combines probabilities of storm tide generated from tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs). The separation enables us to incorporate climate change impacts on both types of storms. The assessment accounts for epistemic storm tide uncertainty using an ensemble of different prior studies and methods of assessment, merged with uncertainty in climate change effects on storm tides and sea levels. The assessment is applied for New York Harbor, under the auspices of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). In the New York Bight region and much of the U.S. East Coast, differing flood exceedance curve slopes for TCs and ETCs arise due to their differing physics. It is demonstrated how errors can arise for this region from mixing together storm types in an extreme value statistical analysis, a common practice when using observations. The effects of climate change on TC and ETC flooding have recently been assessed for this region, for TCs using a Global Climate Model (GCM) driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic modeling, and for ETCs using a GCM-driven multilinear regression-based storm surge model. The results of these prior studies are applied to our central estimates of the flood exceedance curve probabilities, transforming them for climate change effects. The results are useful for decision-makers because they highlight the large uncertainty in present-day and future flood risk, and also for scientists because they identify the areas where further research is most needed.

Modeling erosion under future climates with the WEPP model

Treesearch

Timothy Bayley; William Elliot; Mark A. Nearing; D. Phillp Guertin; Thomas Johnson; David Goodrich; Dennis Flanagan

2010-01-01

The Water Erosion Prediction Project Climate Assessment Tool (WEPPCAT) was developed to be an easy-to-use, web-based erosion model that allows users to adjust climate inputs for user-specified climate scenarios. WEPPCAT allows the user to modify monthly mean climate parameters, including maximum and minimum temperatures, number of wet days, precipitation, and...

[Research advances in vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change].

PubMed

Zhao, Hui-xia; Wu, Shao-hong; Jiang, Lu-guang

2007-02-01

Climate change with global warming as the sign has been caught great attention by the governments, international organizations, and scientists in the world. Human society and natural ecosystem are both exposed to climate change, and more and more people are waked up by its increasing harm. Vulnerability analysis and assessment are the key and basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, being the highlight in the research fields of climate change and ecology in recent years. The vulnerability assessment of climate change is being carried out in various research fields and on different scales, and much progress has been made. This paper introduced the concept of vulnerability, and summarized the research progress in vulnerability assessment of climate change, with the focus on the frame and methodology of vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change. The existed problems and future prospects in this research area were also discussed.

Studies of Climate Change in the Yukon River Basin: Connecting Community and Science Through a Unique Partnership

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, Paul F.; Maracle, Karonhiakta'tie Byran

2010-01-01

An exciting new partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC) is yielding critical data for the assessment of climate change effects in the Yukon River Basin. The foundation of this partnership is a shared interest in the current and future water quality of the Yukon River and its relation to climate. The USGS began a landmark study of the Yukon River and its major tributaries in 2000. A key objective of this study is to establish a baseline dataset of water quality, which will serve as an important frame of reference to assess future changes in the basin that may result from a warmer climate.

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

DOE PAGES

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; ...

2017-07-24

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the regionmore » could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.« less

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

PubMed

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

PubMed

Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

2013-01-01

Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the regionmore » could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.« less

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

2013-01-01

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and, consequently, in the prediction of future discharge and maximum probable flood.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

PubMed

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Knowlton, Kim; Rosenthal, Joyce E.; Hogrefe, Christian; Lynn, Barry; Gaffin, Stuart; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Civerolo, Kevin; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Kinney, Patrick L.

2004-01-01

Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4° × 5° resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change. PMID:15531442

Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

2012-01-01

The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two species were in the least risk category, while 20 species were in the highest risk category. The assessment showed that species respond independently to predicted climate change, suggesting that current plant assemblages may disassemble under predicted climate change scenarios. This report presents the results for each species in tables (Appendix A) and maps (14 for each species) in Appendix B.

Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change.

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Woodruff, Rosalie

2006-12-01

The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the longterm and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events.

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.

PubMed

Warren, R F; Wilby, R L; Brown, K; Watkiss, P; Betts, Richard A; Murphy, James M; Lowe, Jason A

2018-06-13

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Impact assessment of climate change on tourism in the Pacific small islands based on the database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Utsumi, N.; Take, M.; Iida, A.

2016-12-01

This study aims to develop a new approach to assess the impact of climate change on the small oceanic islands in the Pacific. In the new approach, the change of the probabilities of various situations was projected with considering the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations, instead of projecting the most probable situation. The database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) is a database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments, which has the results of 100 ensemble simulations. We utilized the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which was (a long-term and high-resolution database) composed of results of 100 ensemble experiments. A new methodology, Multi Threshold Ensemble Assessment (MTEA), was developed using the d4PDF in order to assess the impact of climate change. We focused on the impact of climate change on tourism because it has played an important role in the economy of the Pacific Islands. The Yaeyama Region, one of the tourist destinations in Okinawa, Japan, was selected as the case study site. Two kinds of impact were assessed: change in probability of extreme climate phenomena and tourist satisfaction associated with weather. The database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments and the questionnaire survey conducted by a local government were used for the assessment. The result indicated that the strength of extreme events would be increased, whereas the probability of occurrence would be decreased. This change should result in increase of the number of clear days and it could contribute to improve the tourist satisfaction.

Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boon, Helen J.

2015-01-01

Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

2010-12-01

Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing the impacts of multiple GCM ensemble members. The implications of various approaches to dealing with uncertainty, such as these, must be carefully communicated to decision makers in order for projected climate impacts to be viewed as credible and used appropriately.

Climate variability and demand growth as drivers of water scarcity in the Turkwel river basin: a bottom-up risk assessment of a data-sparse basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirpa, F. A.; Dyer, E.; Hope, R.; Dadson, S. J.

2017-12-01

Sustainable water management and allocation are essential for maintaining human well-being, sustaining healthy ecosystems, and supporting steady economic growth. The Turkwel river basin, located in north-western Kenya, experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability, and rapidly growing water demand. However, due to sparse hydro-climatic data and limited literature, the water resources system of the basin has been poorly understood. Here we apply a bottom-up climate risk assessment method to estimate the resilience of the basin's water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. First, using a water resource system model and historical climate data, we construct a climate risk map that depicts the way in which the system responds to climate change and variability. Then we develop a set of water demand scenarios to identify the conditions that potentially lead to the risk of unmet water demand and groundwater depletion. Finally, we investigate the impact of climate change and variability by stress testing these development scenarios against historically strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years and future climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results reveal that climate variability and increased water demand are the main drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Our findings show that increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation and population growth exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements, and in all cases considered increase the impacts of droughts caused by future climate variability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of combining analysis of future climate risks with other development decisions that affect water resources planning. Policy and investment decisions which maximise water use efficiency in the present day are likely to impart resilience to climate change and variability under a wide range of future scenarios and therefore constitute low regret measures for climate adaptation.

Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

2015-12-01

The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas High Plains using the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains (THP) region contributes to about 25% of the US cotton production. Dwindling groundwater resources in the underlying Ogallala aquifer, future climate variability and frequent occurrences of droughts are major concerns for cotton production in this region. Assessing the impacts ...

ASSESSING THE RELATIVE AND COMBINED IMPACTS OF FUTURE LAND-USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we discuss the potential water quality impacts of future land-use and climate changes. The Little Miami River Basin was used as a case study. It is a predominantly agricultural watershed in southwestern Ohio (U.S.A.) that has experienced land-use modifications. ...

Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas high plains using the CSM-CROPGRO cotton model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains (THP) region contributes to about 25% of the US cotton production. Dwindling groundwater resources in the underlying Ogallala aquifer, future climate variability and frequent occurrences of droughts are major concerns for cotton production in this region. Assessing the impacts ...

Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada.

PubMed

Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Du, Xinzhong; Wang, Junye

2017-12-01

Proper management of blue and green water resources is important for the sustainability of ecosystems and for the socio-economic development of river basins such as the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada. For this reason, quantifying climate change impacts on these water resources at a finer temporal and spatial scale is often necessary. In this study, we used a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess climate change impacts on fresh water resources, focusing explicitly on the impacts to both blue and green water. We used future climate data generated by the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) with a spatial resolution of 0.22°×0.22° (~25km) for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Results projected the climate of the ARB to be wetter by 21-34% and warmer by 2-5.4°C on an annual time scale. Consequently, the annual average blue and green water flow was projected to increase by 16-54% and 11-34%, respectively, depending on the region, future period, and emission scenario. Furthermore, the annual average green water storage at the boreal region was expected to increase by 30%, while the storage was projected to remain fairly stable or decrease in other regions, especially during the summer season. On average, the fresh water resources in the ARB are likely to increase in the future. However, evidence of temporal and spatial heterogeneity could pose many future challenges to water resource planners and managers. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrologic landscape classification evaluates streamflow vulnerability to climate change in Oregon, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Classification can allow assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and their responses to stressors. Here we demonstrate the use of a hydrologic landscape (HL) approach to assess vulnerability to potential future climate change at statewide and basin scales. The HL ...

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus

PubMed Central

Peterson, A. Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M.

2017-01-01

Background Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. Method We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. Result The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions. PMID:29206879

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptionsmore » about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.« less

Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

2013-04-01

This study extends a stochastic downscaling methodology to generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that express possible future climate conditions at a point-scale. The stochastic downscaling uses general circulation model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). Marginal distributions of factors of change are computed for several climate statistics using a Bayesian methodology that can weight GCM realizations based on the model relative performance with respect to a historical climate and a degree of disagreement in projecting future conditions. A Monte Carlo technique is used to sample the factors of change from their respective marginal distributions. As a comparison with traditional approaches, factors of change are also estimated by averaging GCM realizations. With either approach, the derived factors of change are applied to the climate statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. In this study, the time series are generated in an ensemble mode to fully reflect the uncertainty of GCM projections, climate stochasticity, as well as uncertainties of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology in reproducing future climate conditions for the periods of 2000-2009, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, using the period of 1962-1992 as the historical baseline are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The inferences of the methodology for the period of 2000-2009 are tested against observations to assess reliability of the stochastic downscaling procedure in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed

Alkishe, Abdelghafar A; Peterson, A Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M

2017-01-01

Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.

Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

PubMed Central

Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

2006-01-01

In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. PMID:17185289

The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner

2016-01-01

Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training...

Assessing recent and near-future changes in Southern California's groundwater storage from the perspective of regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Rother, D.

2017-12-01

Current climate change assessments project an increase in temperature throughout the western U.S. over the next century, while precipitation is projected to decrease in the Southwest. These assessments are based mainly on coarse spatial resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations, which do not include groundwater (soil and aquifer) storage projections. However, water availability is a regionally variable resource and climate change impacts on groundwater distribution will probably differ regionally across the southwestern U.S. We have implemented a coupled atmosphere-biosphere-aquifer regional modelling system (WRF/SSiB2/SIMGM) to generate recent (2005-2017) and near-future (2018-2030) high-resolution groundwater projections for Southern California. These projections are obtained by dynamic downscaling data from the Global Operation Analysis (recent) and the NCAR Community Earth System Model CMIP5 global projections (near future), which supported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report. Near-future simulations include three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios namely, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The model can reasonably simulate the recent changes in Southern California's groundwater as indicated by a comparison to terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment dataset. In particular, the 2011-2017 drought is simulated well with total groundwater storages declining throughout the period, especially along the western portion of the domain, which includes the high-populated areas of western Los Angeles, San Diego, Ventura and Orange counties. In general, the near-future simulations show a decline in groundwater storage for the region. The largest changes are observed with the RCP8.5 emission pathway, towards to southeastern tier of the study area. In addition to groundwater, this downscaling experiment also generates high-resolution precipitation and temperature estimates, which can help policy makers in the development of strategies to alleviate potential water resource deficiencies in California in the near future.

Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

2017-12-01

Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and perspectives. In addition, we found that spatial analysis supports informed adaptation, within and outside the SW United States. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example and may offer solutions to reduce future climate risk.

Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been widely used for assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively.

Impacts of climate variability and change on crop yield in sub-Sahara Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Chen, G.; Xu, R.; Zhang, B.; Lou, Y.

2017-12-01

Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on Africa's food security. The impact of climate change on Africa's agriculture is likely to be severe compared to other continents due to high rain-fed agricultural dependence, and limited ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In recent decades, warming in Africa is more pronounced and faster than the global average and this trend is likely to continue in the future. However, quantitative assessment on impacts of climate extremes and climate change on crop yield has not been well investigated yet. By using an improved agricultural module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed impacts of historical climate variability and future climate change on food crop yield across the sub-Sahara Africa during1980-2016 and the rest of the 21st century (2017-2099). Our simulated results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Droughts have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions of Sub-Sahara Africa. Future projections with DLEM-AG2 show that food crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa would be favored with limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.50 C.

Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran).

PubMed

Soleimani, Azam; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Massah Bavani, Ali Reza; Jafari, Mostafa; Francaviglia, Rosa

2017-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) contains a considerable portion of the world's terrestrial carbon stock, and is affected by changes in land cover and climate. SOC modeling is a useful approach to assess the impact of land use, land use change and climate change on carbon (C) sequestration. This study aimed to: (i) test the performance of RothC model using data measured from different land covers in Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran); and (ii) predict changes in SOC under different climate change scenarios that may occur in the future. The following land covers were considered: Quercus castaneifolia (QC), Acer velutinum (AV), Alnus subcordata (AS), Cupressus sempervirens (CS) plantations and a natural forest (NF). For assessment of future climate change projections the Fifth Assessment IPCC report was used. These projections were generated with nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) leading to very low and high greenhouse gases concentration levels (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively), and for four 20year-periods up to 2099 (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Simulated values of SOC correlated well with measured data (R 2 =0.64 to 0.91) indicating a good efficiency of the RothC model. Our results showed an overall decrease in SOC stocks by 2099 under all land covers and climate change scenarios, but the extent of the decrease varied with the climate models, the emissions scenarios, time periods and land covers. Acer velutinum plantation was the most sensitive land cover to future climate change (range of decrease 8.34-21.83tCha -1 ). Results suggest that modeling techniques can be effectively applied for evaluating SOC stocks, allowing the identification of current patterns in the soil and the prediction of future conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Zhang, Taiping

2015-01-01

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

2017-12-01

We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Kilsby, C. G.; Archer, D. R.; Harpham, C.; Hashmi, M. Z.

2014-09-01

Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961-1990) demonstrated the models' skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future' weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region.

Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S

Treesearch

James M. Vose; David L. Peterson; Toral Patel-Weynand

2012-01-01

This report is a scientific assessment of the current condition and likely future condition of forest resources in the United States relative to climatic variability and change. It serves as the U.S. Forest Service forest sector technical report for the National Climate Assessment and includes descriptions of key regional issues and examples of a risk-based framework...

An assessment of climate change and the vulnerability of wildlife in the Sky Islands of the Southwest

Treesearch

Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch; Megan M. Friggens

2012-01-01

We evaluated the historical and projected trends in climate and vegetation relevant to the Coronado National Forest in southeast Arizona, USA. We then applied this information in an assessment of the vulnerability of 30 species of terrestrial vertebrates on the Coronado National Forest to the potential effects of future climate change. We used a pilot version of a...

Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Kjellström, Erik; Zorita, Eduardo; Sonnenborg, Torben; Meier, Markus; Grinsted, Aslak

2015-04-01

Regional climate models have been used extensively since the first assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea region published in 2008, not the least for studies of Europe (and including the Baltic Sea catchment area). Therefore, conclusions regarding climate model results have a better foundation than was the case for the first BACC report of 2008. This presentation will report model results regarding future climate. What is the state of understanding about future human-driven climate change? We will cover regional models, statistical downscaling, hydrological modelling, ocean modelling and sea-level change as it is projected for the Baltic Sea region. Collections of regional model simulations from the ENSEMBLES project for example, financed through the European 5th Framework Programme and the World Climate Research Programme Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, have made it possible to obtain an increasingly robust estimation of model uncertainty. While the first Baltic Sea assessment mainly used four simulations from the European 5th Framework Programme PRUDENCE project, an ensemble of 13 transient regional simulations with twice the horizontal resolution reaching the end of the 21st century has been available from the ENSEMBLES project; therefore it has been possible to obtain more quantitative assessments of model uncertainty. The literature about future climate change in the Baltic Sea region is largely built upon the ENSEMBLES project. Also within statistical downscaling, a considerable number of papers have been published, encompassing now the application of non-linear statistical models, projected changes in extremes and correction of climate model biases. The uncertainty of hydrological change has received increasing attention since the previous Baltic Sea assessment. Several studies on the propagation of uncertainties originating in GCMs, RCMs, and emission scenarios are presented. The number of studies on uncertainties related to downscaling and impact models is relatively small, but more are emerging. A large number of coupled climate-environmental scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea have been performed within the BONUS+ projects (ECOSUPPORT, INFLOW, AMBER and Baltic-C (2009-2011)), using various combinations of output from GCMs, RCMs, hydrological models and scenarios for load and emission of nutrients as forcing for Baltic Sea models. Such a large ensemble of scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea has never before been produced and enables for the first time an estimation of uncertainties.

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

2014-01-01

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

2015-01-01

In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming may notably modulate the ISM rainfall in future climate. Both extreme wet and dry episodes are likely to intensify and regionally extend in future climate with enhanced propensity of short active and long break spells. The SM (WM) could also be more wet (dry) in future due to the increment in longer active (break) spells. However, future changes in the spatial pattern during active/break phase of SM and WM are geographically inconsistent among the models. The results point out the growing climate-related vulnerability over Indian subcontinent, and further suggest the requisite of profound adaptation measures and better policy making in future.

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

PubMed Central

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901–2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011–2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data. PMID:27275583

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

PubMed

Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

2017-02-26

The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

A Dynamic Flood Inundation Model Framework to Assess Coastal Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Irish, J. L.

2015-12-01

Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). A novel framework was developed to generate a suite of physics-based storm surge models that include projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios: shoreline erosion/accretion, dune morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. First, the storm surge inundation model was extensively validated for present day conditions with respect to astronomic tides and hindcasts of Hurricane Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012). The model was then modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape for four climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (B1, B2, A1B, and A2), and each climate change scenario was linked to a sea level rise of 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 1.2 m, and 2.0 m. The adapted model was then used to simulate hurricane storm surge conditions for each climate scenario using a variety of tropical cyclones as the forcing mechanism. The collection of results shows the intensification of inundation area and the vulnerability of the coast to potential future climate conditions. The methodology developed herein to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme flooding in the future. Note: The main theme behind this work is to appear in a future Earth's Future publication. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Parris, A., et al. (2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate AssessmentRep., 37 pp. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, M. V. Bilskie, and S. C. Medeiros (2014), On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios, Natural Hazards, 1599-1617. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, K. Alizad, and D. Wang (2015), The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low gradient coastal landscapes: a review, Earth's Future, 3.

Climate negotiators' and scientists' assessments of the climate negotiations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, Astrid; Zitzelsberger, Sonja; Tavoni, Alessandro

2017-06-01

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyse the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of 656 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centred on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who were more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals' perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations.

Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

2013-12-01

Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban planning process by addressing some of these needs. In this paper we highlight the decision tools available today, discuss their application in selected case studies, and present a gap analysis with opportunities for innovation and future work.

Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

2013-04-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on 2 small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment method with 2 different likelihood functions. One was a time-series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was a likelihood function for the flow quantiles directly. Due to the better data coverage and smaller hydrological complexity in one of our test catchments we had better performance from the hydrological model and thus could observe that the relative importance of different uncertainty sources varied between sites, boundary conditions and flow indicators. The uncertainty of future climate was important, but not dominant. The deficiencies of the hydrological model were on the same scale, especially for the sites and flow components where model performance for the past observations was further from optimal (Nash-Sutcliffe index = 0.5 - 0.7). The overall uncertainty of predictions was well beyond the expected change signal even for the best performing site and flow indicator.

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

PubMed

Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

2014-03-01

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-08

... exercise was designed to elicit judgments from experts in a workshop setting, regarding climate change... influence under both current and future climate change scenarios. The experts also discussed the high impact... in the diagram, and the potential for threshold changes. These reports show how climate-sensitive...

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xin

2017-04-01

The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network

Treesearch

Enric Batllori; Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Max A. Moritz; Carol Miller

2017-01-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform...

Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The established precipitation-ETo covariations are used to inform the scenario construction process. Additionally, the back-tracking of extreme flows from driving scenarios allows for a diagnosis of the physical responses to climate change scenarios. The method is demonstrated through the application of scenarios from 10 Regional Climate Models,21 Global Climate Models and selected catchments in central Belgium. Reference Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., & Willems, P. (2014). Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 307-321.

Energy, environment and climate assessment using the MARKAL energy system model

EPA Science Inventory

As part of EPA ORD’s efforts to develop an understanding of the potential environmental impacts of future changes in energy use, the Energy and Climate Assessment Team has developed a database representation of the U.S. energy system for use with the MARKet ALlocation (MARK...

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Cecil, L. Dewayne; Horton, Radley M.; Gordon, Roman; McCollum, Raymond (Brown, Douglas); Brown, Douglas; Killough, Brian; Goldberg, Richard; Greeley, Adam P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

2015-05-01

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain. PMID:28704433

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Anthony W. D' Amato; Christopher W. Swanston; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Stephen Matthews; Matthew P. Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jacob S. Fraser; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia Butler-Leopold; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Diane Burbank; John Campbell; Charles Cogbill; Matthew J. Duveneck; Marla R. Emery; Nicholas Fisichelli; Jane Foster; Jennifer Hushaw; Laura Kenefic; Amanda Mahaffey; Toni Lyn Morelli; Nicholas J. Reo; Paul G. Schaberg; K. Rogers Simmons; Aaron Weiskittel; Sandy Wilmot; David Hollinger; Erin Lane; Lindsey Rustad; Pamela H. Templer

2018-01-01

Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information...

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on regional climate extremes as well. The scenarios generated with the high-resolution model simulation were compared with the coarse resolution CMIP5 model scenarios to identify region specific features that might be better resolved in the former simulation.

High Resolution Modelling of Crop Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirmasoudi, S. S.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

2014-12-01

Crop production is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climatic variability and change. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and other greenhouse gases are causing increases in global temperature. In western North America, water supply is largely derived from mountain snowmelt. Climate change will have a significant impact on mountain snowpack and subsequently, the snow-derived water supply. This will strain water supplies and increase water demand in areas with substantial irrigation agriculture. Increasing temperatures may create heat stress for some crops regardless of soil water supply, and increasing surface O3 and other pollutants may damage crops and ecosystems. CO2 fertilization may or may not be an advantage in future. This work is part of a larger study that will address a series of questions based on a range of future climate scenarios for several watersheds in western North America. The key questions are: (1) how will snowmelt and rainfall runoff vary in future; (2) how will seasonal and inter-annual soil water supply vary, and how might that impacts food supplies; (3) how might heat stress impact (some) crops even with adequate soil water; (4) will CO2 fertilization alter crop yields; and (5) will pollution loads, particularly O3, cause meaningful changes to crop yields? The Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) Spatial Hydrometeorological Model is an innovative, efficient, high-resolution model designed to assess climate driven changes in mountain snowpack derived water supplies. We will link GENESYS to the CROPWAT crop model system to assess climate driven changes in water requirement and associated crop productivity for a range of future climate scenarios. Literature bases studies will be utilised to develop approximate crop response functions for heat stress, CO2 fertilization and for O3 damages. The overall objective is to create modeling systems that allows meaningful assessment of agricultural productivity at a watershed scale under a range of climate scenarios.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherson, Michelle Yvonne; García-García, Almudena; José Cuesta-Valero, Francisco; Beltrami, Hugo; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Hume Ogden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical and forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis. As in previous studies, R0 of I. scapularis increased with a warming climate under future projected climate. Increases in the multi-model mean R0 values showed significant changes over time under all RCP scenarios, however; only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences. Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. On-going planning is needed to inform and guide adaptation in light of the projected range of possible futures.

Using global Climate Impact Indicators to assess water resource availability in a Mediterranean mountain catchment: the Sierra Nevada study case (Spain) in the SWICCA platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Sáenz de Rodrigáñez, Marta; Gulliver, Zacarias; José Polo, María

2017-04-01

Climate services provide water resource managements and users with science-based information on the likely impacts associated to the future climate scenarios. Mountainous areas are especially vulnerable to climate variations due to the expected changes in the snow regime, among others; in Mediterranean regions, this shift involves significant effects on the river flow regime and water resource availability and management. The Guadalfeo River Basin is a 1345 km2 mountainous, coastal catchment in southern Spain, ranging from the Mediterranean Sea coastline to the Sierra Nevada mountains to the north (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) within a 40-km distance. The climate variability adds complexity to this abrupt topography and heterogeneous area. The uncertainty associated to snow occurrence and persistence for the next decades poses a challenge for the current and future water resource uses in the area. The development of easy-to-use local climate indicators and derived decision-making variables is key to assess and face the economic impact of the potential changes. The SWICCA (Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation) Platform (http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/) has been developed under the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and provides global climate and hydrology indicators on a Pan-European scale. Different case studies are included to assess the platform development and contents, and analyse the indicators' performance from a proof-of-concept approach that includes end-users feedbacks. The Guadalfeo River Basin is one of these case studies. This work presents the work developed so far to analyse and use the SWICCA Climate Impact Indicators (CIIs) related to river flow in this mountainous area, and the first set of local indicators specifically designed to assess selected end-users on the potential impact associated to different climate scenarios. Different CIIs were extracted from the SWICCA interface and tested against the local information available in the case study. The Essential Climate Variables used were precipitation and flow daily values, obtained at different spatial scales. The analysis led to the use of SWICCA-river flow on a catchment scale as the most suitable global CIIs in this area. Further treatment included local downscaling by means of transfer functions and a final relative anomaly correction. Three final end-users (clients) were identified within the water resource management framework: 1) mini hydropower facilities at the head areas, 2) urban supply at the southern area, and 3) water management decision makers (reservoir operation). From the corrected CIIs, local indicators were defined from the interaction with each client, to tailor water services easily and readily usable. Knowledge brokering from this interaction resulted in a first identification of a set of 4, 3 and 4 indicators for hydropower generation, urban users and water resource decision-makers, respectively, with different time scales. The projections of three future climate scenarios were assessed for each indicator and presented to each client. Local indicators are an efficient tool to assess the potential range of water allocation possibilities in this area on an annual and decadal basis, and get a deeper insight of the seasonal future potential regime of water resource availability. The results are good examples of key information for decision making in the future, and show how to derive local indicators with impact in the short and medium term planning in heterogeneous catchments in this region.

Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

PubMed

Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

The Future of Water Security in Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo Through Different Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gesualdo, G. C.; Oliveira, P. T. S.; Rodrigues, D. B. B.

2017-12-01

Achieving a balance between water availability and demand is one of the most pressing environmental challenges in the twenty-first century. This challenge is exacerbated by, climate change, which has already affected the water balance of landscapes globally by intensifying runoff, reducing snowpacks, and shifting precipitation regimes. Understanding these changes is crucial to identifying future water availability and developing sustainable management plans, especially in developing countries. Here, we address the developing country water balance challenge by assessing the influence of climate change on the water availability in the Jaguari basin, Southeastern Brazil. The Jaguari basin is one of the main sources of freshwater for 9 million people in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. This region represents about 7% of the Brazil's Gross Domestic Product. The critical importance of the water balance challenge in this area has been highlighted recently when a major drought in southeastern Brazil revealed the vulnerability of current water management systems. Still today, the per capita water availability in the region remains severely limited. To help address this water balance challenge, we use a modeling approach to predict future water vulnerabilities of this region under different climate scenarios. Here, we calibrated and validated a lumped conceptual model using HYMOD to evaluate future scenarios using downscaled climate models resulting from HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 GCMs forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We also present future directions which include bias correction from long-term weather station data and an empirical uncertainty assessment. Our results provide an important overview of climate change impacts on streamflow and future water availability in the Jaguari basin, which can be used to guide the basin`s water security plans and strategies.

Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

2011-12-01

Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert; Baptista, Sandra R.; Quattrochi, Dale; O'Brien, Sheila

2011-01-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, S.; Kenney, M.; Chen, R. S.; Baptista, S. R.; Quattrochi, D. A.

2011-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation's activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: -How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? -Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? -Are we adapting successfully? -What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? -Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Climate negotiators’ and scientists’ assessments of the climate negotiations

PubMed Central

Dannenberg, Astrid; Zitzelsberger, Sonja; Tavoni, Alessandro

2017-01-01

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyze the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of more than 600 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centered on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who are more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals’ perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations. PMID:28603558

Olive cultivars adaptability in Southern Italy in present and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccardi, M.; Alfieri, S.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Menenti, M.; De Lorenzi, F.

2012-04-01

The intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops is very significant and likely to provide the single major opportunity to cope with the effects of the changing climate on agricultural ecosystems. Assessment of adaptive capacity must rely on quantitative descriptions of plant responses to environmental factors (e.g. soil water availability, temperature). Moreover climate scenario needs to be downscaled to the spatial scale relevant to crop and farm management. Distributed models of crop response to environmental forcing might be used for this purpose, but severely constrained by the very scarce knowledge on variety-specific values of model parameters, thus limiting the potential exploitation of intra-specific biodiversity towards adaptation. We have developed an approach towards this objective that relies on two complementary elements: a)a distributed model of the soil plant atmosphere system to downscale climate scenarios to landscape units, where generic model parameters for each species are used; b)a data base on climatic requirements of as many varieties as feasible for each species relevant to the agricultural production system of a given region. By means of this approach, the adaptability of some olive cultivars was evaluated in a composite (hills and plains) area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, Campania Region, about 20.000 ha). The yearly average temperature is 22.5 °C and rainfall ranges between 600 and 900 mm. Two different climate scenarios were considered: current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios at low spatial resolution were generated with general circulation models (AOGCM) and down-scaled by means of a statistical model (Tomozeiu et al., 2007). The climate was represented by daily observations of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km; 50 realizations were used for future climate. The soil water regime of 45 soil units was described for the two climate scenarios by using an hydrological distributed model (SWAP). For 11 olive cultivars, the yield response function to soil water regime was determined through the re-analysis of experimental data (unpublished or derived from scientific literature). According to these responses, cultivar-specific threshold values of soil water (or evapotranspiration) deficit were defined. The soil water regime calculated by the distributed model was compared with the threshold values to identify cultivars compatible with present and expected climates. The operation is repeated for a set of realizations of each climate scenario. This analysis is performed in a distributed manner, i.e. using the time series for each model grid to assess possible variations in the extent and spatial distribution of cultivated area of olive cultivars. In the study area future climate scenarios predict an increase of monthly minimum and maximum air temperature of about 2°C during the summer (June, July and August) and a reduction of rainfall in autumn. Spatial pattern of cultivars distribution, according their threshold values and soil water regime, was determined in the present and future climate scenarios, thus assessing variations in cultivars adaptability to future climate with respect to the present. Key words: climate change, biodiversity, water availability, yield response. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008).

Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

2015-10-01

Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

Vegetation zones in changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava

2017-04-01

Climate patterns analysis can be performed for individual climate variables separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. Thus, the Köppen-Trewartha classification provides integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also can be used as a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is applied on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Moreover, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. Quite significant uncertainty can be seen for some types. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries between the selected types can be studied as well providing the information on climate change signal. The shift of the boundary between the boreal zone and continental temperate zone to the north is clearly seen in most simulations as well as eastern move of the boundary of the maritime and continental type of temperate zone. However, there can be quite clear problem with model biases in climate types association. When analysing climate types in Europe and their shifts under climate change using Köppen-Trewartha classification (KTC), for the temperate climate type there are subtypes defined following the continentality patterns, and we can see their generally meridionally located divide across Europe shifted to the east. There is a question whether this is realistic or rather due to the simplistic condition in KTC following the winter minimum temperature, while other continentality indices consider rather the amplitude of temperature during the year. This leads us to connect our analysis of climate change effects using climate classification to the more detailed analysis of continentality patterns development in Europe to provide better insight on the climate regimes and to verify the continentality conditions, their definitions and climate change effects on them. The comparison of several selected continentality indices is shown.

Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization), tailored case by case to different sets of natural hazards and elements at risk. Finally, the multi-risk assessment integrates the multi-hazard with the multi-vulnerability index of exposed receptors, providing a relative ranking of areas and targets potentially affected by multiple risks in the considered region. The methodology was applied to the North Adriatic coast (Italy) producing a range of GIS-based multi-hazard, exposure, multi-vulnerability and multi-risk maps that can be used by policy-makers to define risk management and adaptation strategies. Results show that areas affected by higher multi-hazard scores are located close to the coastline where all the investigated hazards are present. Multi-vulnerability assumes relatively high scores in the whole case study, showing that beaches, wetlands, protected areas and river mouths are the more sensible targets. The final estimate of multi-risk for coastal municipalities provides useful information for local public authorities to set future priorities for adaptation and define future plans for shoreline and coastal management in view of climate change.

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time

Treesearch

Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Björk; Anne D. Bjorkman; Terry V. Callaghan; [and others] NO-VALUE; William Gould; Joel Mercado

2012-01-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty...

Tools for assessing climate impacts on fish and wildlife

Treesearch

Chad B. Wilsey; Joshua J. Lawler; Edwin P. Maurer; Donald McKenzie; Patricia A. Townsend; Richard Gwozdz; James A. Freund; Keala Hagmann; Karen M. Hutten

2013-01-01

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we...

Smart climate ensemble exploring approaches: the example of climate impacts on air pollution in Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaire, Vincent; Colette, Augustin; Menut, Laurent

2016-04-01

Because of its sensitivity to weather patterns, climate change will have an impact on air pollution so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projections. However, at present, such impact assessment lack multi-model ensemble approaches to address uncertainties because of the substantial computing cost. Therefore, as a preliminary step towards exploring large climate ensembles with air quality models, we developed an ensemble exploration technique in order to point out the climate models that should be investigated in priority. By using a training dataset from a deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for 8 regions in Europe and developed statistical models that could be used to estimate future air pollutant concentrations. Applying this statistical model to the whole EuroCordex ensemble of climate projection, we find a climate penalty for six subregions out of eight (Eastern Europe, France, Iberian Peninsula, Mid Europe and Northern Italy). On the contrary, a climate benefit for PM2.5 was identified for three regions (Eastern Europe, Mid Europe and Northern Italy). The uncertainty of this statistical model challenges limits however the confidence we can attribute to associated quantitative projections. This technique allows however selecting a subset of relevant regional climate model members that should be used in priority for future deterministic projections to propose an adequate coverage of uncertainties. We are thereby proposing a smart ensemble exploration strategy that can also be used for other impacts studies beyond air quality.

Effect assessment of Future Climate Change on Water Resource and Snow Quality in cold snowy regions in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, Y.; Nakatsugawa, M.; Kudo, K.

2017-12-01

It is predicted that the effects of global warming on everyday life will be clearly seen in cold, snowy regions such as Hokkaido. In relation to climate change, there is the concern that the warmer climate will affect not only water resources, but also local economies, in snowy areas, when air temperature increases and snowfall decreases become more marked in the future. Communities whose economies are greatly dependent on snow as a tourism resource, such as for winter sports and snow events, will lose large numbers of visitors because of the shortened winter season. This study was done as a basic study to provide basic ideas for planning adaptation strategies against climate change based on the local characteristics of a cold, snowy region. By taking dam catchment basins in Hokkaido as the subject areas and by using the climate change prediction data that correspond to IPCCAR5, the local-level influence of future climate change on snowfall and snow quality in relation to water resources and winter sports was quantitatively assessed. The water budget was examined for a dam catchment basin in Hokkaido under the present climate (September 1984 to August 2004) and under the future climate (September 2080 to August 2100) by using rainfall, snowfall and evapotranspiration estimated by the LoHAS heat and water balance analysis model.The examination found that, under the future climate, the net annual precipitation will decrease by up to 200 mm because of decreases in precipitation and in runoff height that will result from increased evapotranspiration. The predicted decrease in annual hydro potential of snowfall was considered to greatly affect the dam reservoir operation during the snowmelt season. The snow quality analysis by SNOWPACK revealed that the future snow would become granular earlier than it does at present. Most skiers' snow preferences, from best to worst, are light dry snow (i.e., fresh snow), lightly compacted snow, compacted snow and, finally, granular snow. If the late-season snow on the slope becomes granular earlier than it has in previous years, then the ski resort's snow conditions will deteriorate. Businesses that receive economic benefits from snow have developed in cold, snowy areas. This study demonstrates that the economic benefits of snow are expected to be greatly reduced by future climate change.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2010-04-01

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-modelmore » ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.« less

Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watersheds using SWAT model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrat...

Assessing the ability of plants to respond to climatic change through distribution shifts

Treesearch

Mark W. Schwartz

1996-01-01

Predictions of future global warming suggest northward shifts of up to 800 km in the equilibrium distributions of plant species. Historical data estimating the maximum rate of tree distribution shifts (migration) suggest that most species will not keep pace with future rates of human-induced climatic change. Previous plant migrations have occurred at rates typically...

Simulating the effects of climate change on population connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

T. N. Wasserman; S. A. Cushman; A. S. Shirk; E. L. Landguth; J. S. Littell

2012-01-01

We utilize empirically derived estimates of landscape resistance to assess current landscape connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, and project how a warming climate may affect landscape resistance and population connectivity in the future. We evaluate the influences of five potential future temperature scenarios...

Integrated Framework for an Urban Climate Adaptation Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omitaomu, O.; Parish, E. S.; Nugent, P.; Mei, R.; Sylvester, L.; Ernst, K.; Absar, M.

2015-12-01

Cities have an opportunity to become more resilient to future climate change through investments made in urban infrastructure today. However, most cities lack access to credible high-resolution climate change projection information needed to assess and address potential vulnerabilities from future climate variability. Therefore, we present an integrated framework for developing an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT). Urban-CAT consists of four modules. Firstly, it provides climate projections at different spatial resolutions for quantifying urban landscape. Secondly, this projected data is combined with socio-economic data using leading and lagging indicators for assessing landscape vulnerability to climate extremes (e.g., urban flooding). Thirdly, a neighborhood scale modeling approach is presented for identifying candidate areas for adaptation strategies (e.g., green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding). Finally, all these capabilities are made available as a web-based tool to support decision-making and communication at the neighborhood and city levels. In this paper, we present some of the methods that drive each of the modules and demo some of the capabilities available to-date using the City of Knoxville in Tennessee as a case study.

Hydrological changes in the tropics: an Holocene perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braconnot, Pascale

2015-04-01

Past climates offer a large set of natural experiences that can be used to better understand the relative role of different climate feedbacks arising from changes in the Earth's global energetics, Earth's hydrological cycle or from the coupling between climate and biogeochemical cycles. In addition, the numerous climate reconstructions from different and independent ice, marine and terrestrial climate archives allow to test how climate models reproduce past changes and to assess their credibility when used for future climate projections. The presentation will review some of the mechanisms affecting the long term trend in the location of the intertropical convergence zone and the Afro-Asian monsoon. Using simulations of the PMIP project, as well as sensitivity experiments with the IPSL model, I'll discuss the role of monsoon changes in the global Earth's energetics and the different feedbacks from ocean and land-surface. The presentation will contrast the conditions in the Early, the mid and late Holocene and show how robust features of monsoon changes can be used to better assess future changes in regions where model results are uncertain, such as West Africa.

The Impacts of a 2-Degree Rise in Global Temperatures upon Gas-Phase Air Pollutants in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Laura; Josse, Béatrice; Marecal, Virginie; Lacressonnière, Gwendoline; Vautard, Robert; Gauss, Michael; Engardt, Magnuz; Nyiri, Agnes; Siour, Guillaume

2014-05-01

The 15th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 15) in 2009 ratified the Copenhagen Accord, which "recognises the scientific view that" global temperature rise should be held below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels in order to limit the impacts of climate change. Due to the fact that a 2-degree limit has been frequently referred to by policy makers in the context of the Copenhagen Accord and many other high-level policy statements, it is important that the impacts of this 2-degree increase in temperature are adequately analysed. To this end, the European Union sponsored the project IMPACT2C, which uses a multi-disciplinary international team to assess a wide variety of impacts of a 2-degree rise in global temperatures. For example, this future increase in temperature is expected to have a significant influence upon meteorological conditions such as temperature, precipitation, and wind direction and intensity; which will in turn affect the production, deposition, and distribution of air pollutants. For the first part of the air quality analysis within the IMPACT2C project, the impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants over Europe was studied using four offline atmospheric chemistry transport models. Two sets of meteorological forcings were used for each model: reanalysis of past observation data and global climate model output. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors for the year 2005 were used for all simulations in order to isolate the impact of meteorology and assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The differences between the simulations that use reanalysis of past observation data and the simulations that use global climate model output show how global climate models modify climate hindcasts by boundary conditions inputs: information that is necessary in order to interpret simulations of future climate. The baseline results were assessed by comparison with AirBase (Version 7) measurement data, and were then used as a reference for an analysis of future climate scenarios upon European air quality. The future scenarios included two types of emission data for the year 2050: one set of emission data corresponding to a current legislation scenario and another corresponding to a scenario with a maximum feasible reduction in emissions. The future scenarios were run for the time period that corresponds to a 2-degree increase in global temperatures; a time period that varies depending on which global climate model is used. In order to calculate the effect of climate change on emission reduction scenarios, the "climate penalty", the future simulations were compared to a simulation using the same future emissions but with current (2005) climate. Results show that climate change will have consequential impacts with regards to the production and geographical distribution of ozone and nitrogen oxides.

Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge- uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I. P.

2006-06-01

An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socio-economic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown future changes are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists.

Cross site analysis of forested watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to climate change and increasing CO2 over the 21st century using a dynamic biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmokhtarian, A.; Driscoll, C. T.; Campbell, J. L.; Hayhoe, K.

2011-12-01

Effects of global climate change will be manifested differently across land areas with differing biogeographic characteristics. Understanding the nuances of forest watershed response to future climate change and the characteristics that drive this varied response is critical to assessments of effects. To assess the impacts of climate change, a multi-faceted approach is required that is capable of resolving multiple climatic drivers and other anthropogenic stressors likely to simultaneously affect ecosystems over the coming decades. Dynamic hydrochemical models are useful tools to understand and predict the interactive effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2, and atmospheric deposition on the hydrology and water quality of forested watersheds. In this study, we used the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to assess, compare and contrast the effects of potential future changes in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and atmospheric CO2 on pools, concentrations, and fluxes of major elements at four forested watersheds in the northeastern U.S.; the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, East Bear Brook in Maine, Sleepers River Watershed in Vermont, and Huntington Wildlife Forest in New York. Future emissions scenarios were developed from monthly output from three atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (HadCM3, GFDL, PCM) in conjunction with potential lower and upper bounds of projected atmospheric CO2 (550 and 970 ppm by 2099, respectively). These climate projections indicate that over the 21st century, average air temperature will increase at all sites with simultaneous increases in annual average precipitation. The modeling results suggest that under future climatic conditions peak discharge in spring will transition from April to March due to less snowmelt and an extended growing season. Higher temperature and a decrease in the ratio of snow to rain, regardless of overall increase in total precipitation, will minimize snowpack development. Over the summer period, higher rates of evapotranspiration are predicted to decrease streamflow. Model results show that under elevated temperature, net soil nitrogen mineralization and nitrification markedly increase, resulting in acidification of soil and streamwater, although the extent varies with site land disturbance history. The watershed responses of other major elements such as SO42- and Ca2+, and chemical characteristics such as pH and ANC varied based on future climate scenario and site characteristics. Also we assessed changes in seasonal patterns of concentrations of NO3-, SO42-, Ca2+, DOC, pH, and ANC under all climate change scenarios with and without CO2 effects on vegetation over the period of 2070-2100. These results suggest that even though climate change will likely alter the overall element concentrations and fluxes, the relative seasonal patterns will not be highly altered.

The Climate Resilience Toolkit: Central gateway for risk assessment and resilience planning at all governance scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herring, D.; Lipschultz, F.

2016-12-01

As people and organizations grapple with a changing climate amid a range of other factors simultaneously shifting, there is a need for credible, legitimate & salient scientific information in useful formats. In addition, an assessment framework is needed to guide the process of planning and implementing projects that allow communities and businesses to adapt to specific changing conditions, while also building overall resilience to future change. We will discuss how the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) can improve people's ability to understand and manage their climate-related risks and opportunities, and help them make their communities and businesses more resilient. In close coordination with the U.S. Climate Data Initiative, the CRT is continually evolving to offer actionable authoritative information, relevant tools, and subject matter expertise from across the U.S. federal government in one easy-to-use location. The Toolkit's "Climate Explorer" is designed to help people understand potential climate conditions over the course of this century. It offers easy access to downloadable maps, graphs, and data tables of observed and projected temperature, precipitation and other decision-relevant climate variables dating back to 1950 and out to 2100. Since climate is only one of many changing factors affecting decisions about the future, it also ties climate information to a wide range of relevant variables to help users explore vulnerabilities and impacts. New topic areas have been added, such as "Fisheries," "Regions," and "Built Environment" sections that feature case studies and personal experiences in making adaptation decisions. A curated "Reports" section is integrated with semantic web capabilities to help users locate the most relevant information sources. As part of the USGCRP's sustained assessment process, the CRT is aligning with other federal activities, such as the upcoming 4th National Climate Assessment.

Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato.

PubMed

Leisner, Courtney P; Wood, Joshua C; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S; Robin Buell, C; Winkler, Julie A

2018-04-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

ASSESSING THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO, U.S.A

EPA Science Inventory

This paper uses a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to simulate the water quality impacts of future climate change in the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed in southwestern Ohio. The LMR watershed, the principal source of drinking water for 1.6 mi...

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-15

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in the Western U.S.?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niraula, R.; Meixner, T.; Dominguez, F.; Bhattarai, N.; Rodell, M.; Ajami, H.; Gochis, D.; Castro, C.

2017-10-01

Although groundwater is a major water resource in the western U.S., little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and recharge in the West. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in climate on groundwater recharge in the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future across the western U.S. Variable Infiltration Capacity model was run with RCP 6.0 forcing from 11 global climate models and "subsurface runoff" output was considered as recharge. Recharge is expected to decrease in the West (-5.8 ± 14.3%) and Southwest (-4.0 ± 6.7%) regions in the near future and in the South region (-9.5 ± 24.3%) in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge in the near (+5.3 ± 9.2%) and far (+11.8 ± 12.3%) future. Overall, southern portions of the western U.S. are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more. Climate change interacts with land surface properties to affect the amount of recharge that occurs in the future. Effects on recharge due to change in vegetation response from projected changes in climate and CO2 concentration, though important, are not considered in this study.

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

PubMed

Law, Beverly E

2014-12-01

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. We apply an ensemble of watershed models to simulate and assess the responses of hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to two climate change projections in the US Co...

Mitigation strategies and unforseen consequences: A systematic assessment of the adaption of upper midwest agriculture to future climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doering, O.; Lowenberg-DeBoer, J.; Habeck, M.

1997-12-31

Our starting point is the assumption of global climate change that doubles CO{sub 2} in the Upper Midwest by 2050. This work then concentrates on determining agriculture in the Upper Midwest successfully adapts to such a climate change.

Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Z.

2015-12-01

Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

Future Wildfire and Managed Fire Interactions in the Lake Tahoe Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheller, R.; Kretchun, A.

2017-12-01

Managing large forested landscape in the context of a changing climate and altered disturbance regimes presents new challenges and require integrated assessments of forest disturbance, management, succession, and the carbon cycle. Successful management under these circumstances will require information about trade-offs among multiple objectives and opportunities for spatially optimized landscape-scale management. Improved information about the effects of climate on forest communities, disturbance feedbacks, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies enables actionable options for landscape managers. We evaluated the effects of fire suppression, wildfires, and forest fuel (thinning) treatments on the long-term carbon storage potential for Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) forests under various climate futures. We simulated management scenarios that encompass fuel treatments across the larger landscape, beyond the Wildland Urban Interface. We improved upon current fire modeling under climate change via an integrated fire modeling module that, a) explicitly captures the influence of climate, fuels, topography, active fire management (e.g., fire suppression), and fuel treatments, and b) can be parameterized from available data, e.g., remote sensing, field reporting, fire databases, expert opinion. These improvements increase geographic flexibility and decrease reliance on broad historical fire regime statistics - imperfect targets for a no analog future and require minimal parameterization and calibration. We assessed the interactions among fuel treatments, prescribe fire, fire suppression, and stochastically recurring wildfires. Predicted changes in climate and ignition patterns in response to future climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics, and fuel treatments indicate larger potential long-term effects on C emissions, forest structure, and forest composition than prior studies.

A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

2015-12-01

In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Early warning of climate tipping points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenton, Timothy M.

2011-07-01

A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.

Adaptive and interactive climate futures: systematic review of ‘serious games’ for engagement and decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood, Stephen; Cradock-Henry, Nicholas A.; Blackett, Paula; Edwards, Peter

2018-06-01

Climate change is already having adverse impacts on ecosystems, communities and economic activities through higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extremes. However, a gap remains between public understanding, scientific knowledge about climate change, and changes in behaviour to effect adaptation. ‘Serious games’—games used for purposes other than entertainment—are one way to reduce this adaptation deficit by enhancing opportunities for social learning and enabling positive action. Games can provide communities with the opportunity to interactively explore different climate futures, build capability and capacity for dealing with complex challenges, and socialise adaptation priorities with diverse publics. Using systematic review methods, this paper identifies, reviews, synthesises and assesses the literature on serious games for climate change adaptation. To determine where and how impact is achieved, we draw on an evaluation framework grounded in social learning, to assess which combinations of cognitive (knowledge and thinking), normative (norms and approaches) and relational (how people connect and network building) learning are achieved. Results show that factors influencing the overall success in influencing behaviour and catalysing learning for adaptation include generating high levels of inter- and intra- level trust between researchers, practitioners and community participants; strong debriefing and evaluation practices; and the use of experienced and knowledgeable facilitators. These results can help inform future game design, and research methodologies to develop robust ways for engaging with stakeholders and end users, and enhance learning effects for resilient climate futures.

Climate change vulnerability assessment for the Chugach National Forest and the Kenai Peninsula

Treesearch

Gregory H. Hayward; Steve Colt; Monica L. McTeague; Teresa N. Hollingsworth

2017-01-01

This assessment evaluates the effects of future climate change on a select set of ecological systems and ecosystem services in Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula and Chugach National Forest regions. The focus of the assessment was established during a multi-agency/organization workshop that established the goal to conduct a rigorous evaluation of a limited range of topics rather...

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.

PubMed

Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Sharma, Devesh

2018-09-01

Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO 2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2013-04-01

Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations showed some unexpected results, where climate models predicting the largest increase in net precipitation did not result in the largest increase in groundwater heads. This was found to be the result of different initial conditions (1990 - 2010) for the various climate models. In some areas a combination of a high initial groundwater head and an increase in precipitation towards 2021 - 2050 resulted in a groundwater head raise that reached the drainage or the surface water system. This will increase the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system, but reduce the raise in groundwater heads. An alternative climate model, with a lower initial head can thus predict a higher increase in the groundwater head, although the increase in precipitation is lower. This illustrates an extra dimension in the uncertainty assessment, namely the climate models capability of simulating the current climatic conditions in a way that can reproduce the observed hydrological response. Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L, Stisen, S, et al. (2012) Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815212002423 Seaby, LP, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, et al. (2012) Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections (submitted) Journal of Hydrology Stisen, S, Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L et al., (2012): On the importance of appropriate rain-gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes - http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4157/2012/

A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Synopsis of Stage 1 Research Strategy and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S.; Sun, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Corsi, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.; Suh, S.

2017-12-01

The focus of this talk is on climate adaptation and the reliability of power supply infrastructure when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. Power supply is critically dependent upon water resources, particularly to cool thermoelectric plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in the geography or seasonality of water supply. We report on results from an NSF-Funded Water Sustainability and Climate effort aimed at uncovering key energy and economic system vulnerabilities. We have developed the National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to systematically evaluate: a) the performance of the nation's electricity sector under multiple climate scenarios; b) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, c) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the economic productivity, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. Our project combines core engineering and geophysical models (ReEDS [Regional Energy Deployment System], TP2M [Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution], and WBM [Water Balance]) through unique digital "handshake" protocols that operate across different institutions and modeling platforms. Combined system outputs are fed into a regional-to-national scale economic input/output model to evaluate economic consequences of climate constraints, technology choices, and environmental regulation. The impact assessments in NEWS are carried out through a series of climate/energy policy scenario studies to 2050. We find that despite significant climate-water impacts on individual plants, the current US power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. However, the magnitude and implications of climate-water impacts vary depending on the configuration of the future power sector. To evaluate future power supply performance, we model alternative electricity sector pathways in combination with varying climate-water conditions. Further, water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies yet system-level shocks can be attenuated through different technology mixes and infrastructure.

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

2016-12-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE PAGES

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; ...

2017-10-30

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Newmark, Robin; Fekete, Balazs

2017-11-01

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptation strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. Climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

How To Assess The Future Tree-Cover Potential For Reforestation Planning In Semi-Arid Regions? An Attempt Using The Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.

2015-12-01

More and more reforestation projects are undertaken at local to continental scales to fight desertification, to address development challenges, and to improve local living conditions in tropical semi-arid regions. These regions are very sensitive to climatic changes and the potential for maintaining tree-covers will be altered in the next decades. Therefore, reforestation planning needs predicting the future "climatic tree-cover potential": the optimum tree-fraction sustainable in future climatic states. Global circulation models projections provide possible future climatologies for the 21st century. These can be used at the global scale to force a land-surface model, which in turn simulates the vegetation development under these conditions. The tree cover leading to an optimum development may then be identified. We propose here to run a state-of-the-art model and to assess the span and the relevance of the answers that can be obtained for reforestation planning. The ORCHIDEE vegetation model is chosen here to allow a multi-criteria evaluation of the optimum cover, as it returns surface climate state variables as well as vegetation functioning and biomass products. It is forced with global climate data (WFDEI and CRU) for the 20th century and models projections (CMIP5 outputs) for the 21st century. At the grid-cell resolution of the forcing climate data, tree-covers ranging from 0 to 100% are successively prescribed. A set of indicators is then derived from the model outputs, meant for modulating reforestation strategies according to the regional priorities (e.g. maximize the biomass production or decrease the surface air temperature). The choice of indicators and the relevance of the final answers provided will be collectively assessed by the climate scientists and reforestation project management experts from the KINOME social enterprise (http://en.kinome.fr). Such feedback will point towards the model most urging needs for improvement.

Contributions of changes in climatology and perturbation and the resulting nonlinearity to regional climate change.

PubMed

Adachi, Sachiho A; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yoshida, Ryuji; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ando, Kazuto; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Tomita, Hirofumi

2017-12-20

Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.

Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

2017-04-01

The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety to be produced (Porto and Douro wine), while climate variability affects the annual productivity and quality of the grape harvest. Our study investigates changes in the extreme climate events in the future model runs, through a set of climate change indicators defined by the WRCP's Expert Team in Climate Change Detection and Indices, which uses variables such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation amounts. Furthermore, we explore heat waves and their properties (duration, intensity and recovery factor). The analysis shows an increase of the mean temperature in the DDR higher than 2°C by the mid-21st century and 4.5°C by the end of the century, relatively to the reference period. Moreover, we found a major predisposition towards higher values of minimum and maximum daily temperatures and a decrease in the total precipitation during both future periods. These preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the DDR wine production and increased vulnerability of the wine varieties in this region.

Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skogen, Morten D.; Eilola, Kari; Hansen, Jørgen L. S.; Meier, H. E. Markus; Molchanov, Mikhail S.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.

2014-04-01

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models has been used to assess eutrophication. Using downscaled forcing from two GCMs under the A1B emission scenario, an assessment of the eutrophication status was made for a control (1970-2000) and a future climate (2070-2100) period. By using validation results from a hindcast to compute individual weights between the models, an assessment of eutrophication is done using a set of threshold values. The final classification distinguishes between three categories: problem area, potential problem area, and non-problem area, in accordance with current management practice as suggested by the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). For the control run the assessment indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. In the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in eutrophication status in the projected future climate.

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

Informing the NCA: EPA's Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Kolian, M.; Crimmins, A. R.

2017-12-01

The Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework is designed to quantify the physical impacts and economic damages in the United States under future climate change scenarios. To date, the framework has been applied to 25 sectors, using scenarios and projections developed for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. The strength of this framework has been in the use of consistent climatic, socioeconomic, and technological assumptions and inputs across the impact sectors to maximize the ease of cross-sector comparison. The results of the underlying CIRA sectoral analyses are informing the sustained assessment process by helping to address key gaps related to economic valuation and risk. Advancing capacity and scientific literature in this area has created opportunity to consider future applications and strengthening of the framework. This presentation will describe the CIRA framework, present results for various sectors such as heat mortality, air & water quality, winter recreation, and sea level rise, and introduce potential enhancements that can improve the utility of the framework for decision analysis.

Climate Projection Data base for Roads - CliPDaR: Design a guideline for a transnational database of downscaled climate projection data for road impact models - within the Conference's of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) TRANSNATIONAL ROAD RESEARCH PROG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Türk, Konrad

2013-04-01

The European road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena, which can cause large socio-economic losses. Almost every year there occur several weather triggered events (like heavy precipitation, floods, landslides, high winds, snow and ice, heat or cold waves, etc.), that disrupt transportation, knock out power lines, cut off populated regions from the outside and so on. So, in order to avoid imbalances in the supply of vital goods to people as well as to prevent negative impacts on health and life of people travelling by car it is essential to know present and future threats to roads. Climate change might increase future threats to roads. CliPDaR focuses on parts of the European road network and contributes, based on the current body of knowledge, to the establishment of guidelines helping to decide which methods and scenarios to apply for the estimation of future climate change based challenges in the field of road maintenance. Based on regional scale climate change projections specific road-impact models are applied in order to support protection measures. In recent years, it has been recognised that it is essential to assess the uncertainty and reliability of given climate projections by using ensemble approaches and downscaling methods. A huge amount of scientific work has been done to evaluate these approaches with regard to reliability and usefulness for investigations on possible impacts of climate changes. CliPDaR is going to collect the existing approaches and methodologies in European countries, discuss their differences and - in close cooperation with the road owners - develops a common line on future applications of climate projection data to road impact models. As such, the project will focus on reviewing and assessing existing regional climate change projections regarding transnational highway transport needs. The final project report will include recommendations how the findings of CliPDaR may support the decision processes of European national road administrations regarding possible future climate change impacts. First project results are presented at the conference.

An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961-90)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonsal, Barrie R.; Prowse, Terry D.; Pietroniro, Alain

2003-12-01

Climate change is projected to significantly affect future hydrologic processes over many regions of the world. This is of particular importance for alpine systems that provide critical water supplies to lower-elevation regions. The western cordillera of Canada is a prime example where changes to temperature and precipitation could have profound hydro-climatic impacts not only for the cordillera itself, but also for downstream river systems and the drought-prone Canadian Prairies. At present, impact researchers primarily rely on global climate models (GCMs) for future climate projections. The main objective of this study is to assess several GCMs in their ability to simulate the magnitude and spatial variability of current (1961-90) temperature and precipitation over the western cordillera of Canada. In addition, several gridded data sets of observed climate for the study region are evaluated.Results reveal a close correspondence among the four gridded data sets of observed climate, particularly for temperature. There is, however, considerable variability regarding the various GCM simulations of this observed climate. The British, Canadian, German, Australian, and US GFDL models are superior at simulating the magnitude and spatial variability of mean temperature. The Japanese GCM is of intermediate ability, and the US NCAR model is least representative of temperature in this region. Nearly all the models substantially overestimate the magnitude of total precipitation, both annually and on a seasonal basis. An exception involves the British (Hadley) model, which best represents the observed magnitude and spatial variability of precipitation. This study improves our understanding regarding the accuracy of GCM climate simulations over the western cordillera of Canada. The findings may assist in producing more reliable future scenarios of hydro-climatic conditions over various regions of the country. Copyright

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

PubMed

Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

2018-01-01

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

2013-01-01

The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

Treesearch

Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

2017-01-01

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

Evaluating the ecological sustainability of a pinyon-juniper grassland ecosystem in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Reuben Weisz; Jack Triepke; Don Vandendriesche; Mike Manthei; Jim Youtz; Jerry Simon; Wayne Robbie

2010-01-01

In order to develop strategic land management plans, managers must assess current and future ecological conditions. Climate change has expanded the need to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and predict their conditions under different climate change and management scenarios using landscape dynamics simulation models. We present a methodology for developing a...

Forests: the potential consequences of climate variability and change

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

2001-01-01

This pamphlet reports the recent scientific assessment that analyzed how future climate variablity and change may affect forests in the United States. The assessment, sponsored by the USDA Forest Service, and supported, in part, by the U.S Department of Energy, and the National Atmospheric and Space Administration, describes the suite of potential impacts on forests....

The Impacts of Global Scale Climate Variations on Southwest Asia

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

accurately assess the current state of the climate and attempt to project into the future, we must have a thorough understanding of the long-term...mean (LTM) conditions in the region of interest. Once we understand the LTM, we can compare the current state of the climate system to the LTM, as...climate analysis and forecasting. 3 Climate analysis, in broad terms, is diagnosing the current state of the climate system and noting departures from

Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

2010-05-01

To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a useful Climate Twins regions search. The Climate Twins tool works actually comparing future climate conditions of a certain source area in the Greater Alpine Region with current climate conditions of entire Europe and the neighbouring southern as well south-eastern areas as target regions. A next version will integrate web crawling features for searching information about climate-related local adaptations observed today in the target region which may turn out as appropriate solution for the source region under future climate conditions. The contribution will present the current tool functionally and will discuss which indicator sets, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges work best to deliver scientifically sound climate comparisons and distinct mapping results.

Climate change, resource use and food security in midcentury under a range of plausible scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, K.

2016-12-01

Achieving and maintaining food security at local, national and global scales is challenged by changes in population, income and climate, among other socioeconomic and biophysical drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a systematic and multidisciplinary approach. The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program, a CGIAR initiative led by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the 14 other CGIAR research centers, is working to improve tools and conduct ex ante assessments of promising technologies, investments and policies under alternative global futures to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners. Alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios are explored using an integrated system of climate, water, crop and economic models. This presentation will share findings from recent projections of food production and prices to 2050 at global and regional scales, together with their potential implications for land and water use, food security, nutrition and health.

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.; Stocker, T. F.; Barros, V. R.; Qin, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Midgley, P. M.

2011-12-01

The Summary for Policy Makers of the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation will be approved by the world governments in November 2011. The focus of the Special Report is on climate change and its role in altering the frequency, severity, and impact of extreme events or disasters, and on the costs of both impacts and the actions taken to prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme events and disasters. The emphasis is on understanding the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, on recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and on managing the risks of disasters over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The assessment considers a broad suite of adaptations and explores the limits to adaptation. The assessment was designed to build durable links and foundations for partnerships between the stakeholder communities focused on climate change and those focused on disaster risk reduction. The Special Report begins with material that frames the issues, followed by an assessment of the reasons that communities are vulnerable. Two chapters assess the role of past and future climate change in altering extremes and the impact of these on the physical environment and human systems. Three chapters assess available knowledge on impacts and adaptation, with separate chapters considering the literature, stakeholder relationships, and potential policy tools relevant to the local, national, and international scales. Longer-term components of adaptation to weather and climate extremes and disasters are assessed in the context of moving toward sustainability. The final chapter provides case studies that integrate themes across several chapters or are so unique that they need to be considered separately.

The impact of past and future climate change on global human mortality due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J.; Anenberg, S.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D. T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Berntsen, T.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2012-12-01

Climate change can adversely affect air quality, through changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions. Future changes in air pollutant emissions will also profoundly influence air quality. These changes in air quality can affect human health, as exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with premature human mortality. Here we will quantify the global mortality impacts of past and future climate change, considering the effects of climate change on air quality isolated from emission changes. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has simulated the past and future surface concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 from each of several GCMs, for emissions from 1850 ("preindustrial") to 2000 ("present-day"), and for the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to 2100. We will use ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations from five or more global models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, for a base year (present-day), pre-industrial conditions, and future scenarios, considering changes in climate and emissions. We will assess the mortality impacts of past climate change by using one simulation ensemble with present emissions and climate and one with present emissions but 1850 climate. We will similarly quantify the potential impacts of future climate change under the four RCP scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs will be regridded to the same resolution to estimate multi-model medians and range in each grid cell. Resulting premature deaths will be calculated using these medians along with epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions, and present-day or future projections of population and baseline mortality rates, considering aging and transitioning disease rates over time. The spatial distributions of current and future global premature mortalities due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution will be presented separately. These results will strengthen our understanding of the impacts of climate change today, and in future years considering different plausible scenarios.

The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

PubMed

Mahony, Martin

2014-02-01

Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

Compilation of climate data from heterogeneous networks across the Hawaiian Islands

Treesearch

Ryan J. Longman; Thomas W. Giambelluca; Michael A. Nullet; Abby G. Frazier; Kevin Kodama; Shelley D. Crausbay; Paul D. Krushelnycky; Susan Cordell; Martyn P. Clark; Andy J. Newman; Jeffrey R. Arnold

2018-01-01

Long-term, accurate observations of atmospheric phenomena are essential for a myriad of applications, including historic and future climate assessments, resource management, and infrastructure planning. In Hawai‘i, climate data are available from individual researchers, local, State, and Federal agencies, and from large electronic repositories such as the National...

75 FR 37405 - Notice of Public Review and Comment Period on NOAA's Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-29

... Federal role in responding to the Nation's most urgent challenges, ranging from climate change, severe... changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts, share knowledge and information with others, and conserve... changing climate system and its impacts. Objective: Integrated assessments of current and future states of...

Hydro-climatic simulation of Spring Creek Basin under dynamic C02 atmospheric concentration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate factors monitoring have indicated that global atmospheric C02 concentration rose in the past, and further rise should be expected in the future as indicated by projections. SWAT is a hydro-climatic distributed model used to assess the efficiency of agricultural and land use best management p...

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower and Power Marketing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sale, Michael J; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Uria Martinez, Rocio

The U.S. Department of Energy is currently preparing an assessment of the effects of climate change on federal hydropower, as directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the Secure Water Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-11). This paper describes the assessment approach being used in a Report to Congress currently being prepared by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The 9505 assessment will examine climate change effects on water available for hydropower operations and the future power supplies marketed from federal hydropower projects. It will also include recommendations from the Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) on potential changes in operation or contracting practices thatmore » could address these effects and risks of climate change. Potential adaption and mitigation strategies will also be identified. Federal hydropower comprises approximately half of the U.S. hydropower portfolio. The results from the 9505 assessment will promote better understanding among federal dam owners/operators of the sensitivity of their facilities to water availability, and it will provide a basis for planning future actions that will enable adaptation to climate variability and change. The end-users of information are Congressional members, their staff, the PMAs and their customers, federal dam owners/operators, and the DOE Water Power Program.« less

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

2016-01-01

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

Assessing the Role of Climate Change in Malaria Transmission in Africa.

PubMed

Ngarakana-Gwasira, E T; Bhunu, C P; Masocha, M; Mashonjowa, E

2016-01-01

The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission dynamics of malaria. The reproduction number obtained is applied to gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for baseline climate and future climate with aid of GIS. As a result of climate change, malaria burden is likely to increase in the tropics, the highland regions, and East Africa and along the northern limit of falciparum malaria. Falciparum malaria will spread into the African highlands; however it is likely to die out at the southern limit of the disease.

Assessing the impact of climate change upon hydrology and agriculture in the Indrawati Basin, Nepal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzoli, Irene; Bocchiola, Daniele; Nana, Ester; Maskey, Shreedhar; Uhlenbrook, Stefan

2014-05-01

Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, especially to temperature and precipitation changes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the climate change impacts upon rain-fed crops production in the Indrawati river basin, Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT model was used to model hydrology and cropping systems in the catchment, and to predict the influence of different climate change scenarios therein. Daily weather data collected from about 13 weather stations during 4 decades were used to constrain the SWAT model, and data from two hydrometric stations used to calibrate/validate it. Then management practices (crop calendar) were applied to specific Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) for the main crops of the region, rice, corn and wheat. Manual calibration of crop production was also carried, against values of crop yield in the area from literature. The calibrated and validated model was further applied to assess the impact of three future climate change scenarios (RCPs) upon the crop productivity in the region. Three climate models (GCMs) were adopted, each with three RCPs (2.5, 4.5, 8.5). Hence, impacts of climate change were assessed considering three time windows, namely a baseline period (1995-2004), the middle of century (2045-2054) and the end of century (2085-2094). For each GCM and RCP future hydrology and yield was compared to baseline scenario. The results displayed slightly modified hydrological cycle, and somewhat small variation in crop production, variable with models and RCPs, and for crop type, the largest being for wheat. Keywords: Climate Change, Nepal, hydrological cycle, crop yield.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

PubMed

García Molinos, Jorge; Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Burrows, Michael T; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamano, Hiroya

2017-10-01

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

2016-01-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

The U.S. Geological Survey Climate Geo Data Portal: an integrated broker for climate and geospatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blodgett, David L.

2013-01-01

The increasing availability of downscaled climate projections and other data products that summarize or predict climate conditions, is making climate data use more common in research and management. Scientists and decisionmakers often need to construct ensembles and compare climate hindcasts and future projections for particular spatial areas. These tasks generally require an investigator to procure all datasets of interest en masse, integrate the various data formats and representations into commonly accessible and comparable formats, and then extract the subsets of the datasets that are actually of interest. This process can be challenging and time intensive due to data-transfer, -storage, and(or) -processing limits, or unfamiliarity with methods of accessing climate data. Data management for modeling and assessing the impacts of future climate conditions is also becoming increasingly expensive due to the size of the datasets. The Climate Geo Data Portal (http://cida.usgs.gov/climate/gdp/) addresses these limitations, making access to numerous climate datasets for particular areas of interest a simple and efficient task.

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

PubMed

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Adapting wheat to uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, Mikhail; Stratonovitch, Pierre

2015-04-01

This study describes integration of climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble with the LARS-WG weather generator, which delivers an attractive option for downscaling of large-scale climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments. A subset of 18 GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble and 2 RCPs, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were integrated with LARS-WG. Climate sensitivity indexes for temperature and precipitation were computed for all GCMs and for 21 regions in the world. For computationally demanding impact assessments, where it is not practical to explore all possible combinations of GCM × RCP, climate sensitivity indexes could be used to select a subset of GCMs from CMIP5 with contrasting climate sensitivity. This would allow to quantify uncertainty in impacts resulting from the CMIP5 ensemble by conducting fewer simulation experiments. As an example, an in silico design of wheat ideotype optimised for future climate scenarios in Europe was described. Two contrasting GCMs were selected for the analysis, "hot" HadGEM2-ES and "cool" GISS-E2-R-CC, along with 2 RCPs. Despite large uncertainty in climate projections, several wheat traits were identified as beneficial for the high-yielding wheat ideotypes that could be used as targets for wheat improvement by breeders.

Evaluation of the multi-model CORDEX-Africa hindcast using RCMES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lean, P.; Mattmann, C. A.; Goodale, C. E.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Hewitson, B.; Jones, C.

2011-12-01

Recent global climate change studies have concluded with a high confidence level that the observed increasing trend in the global-mean surface air temperatures since mid-20th century is triggered by the emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). The increase in the global-mean temperature due to anthropogenic emissions is nearly monotonic and may alter the climatological norms resulting in a new climate normal. In the presence of anthropogenic climate change, assessing regional impacts of the altered climate state and developing the plans for mitigating any adverse impacts are an important concern. Assessing future climate state and its impact remains a difficult task largely because of the uncertainties in future emissions and model errors. Uncertainties in climate projections propagates into impact assessment models and result in uncertainties in the impact assessments. In order to facilitate the evaluation of model data, a fundamental step for assessing model errors, the JPL Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES: Lean et al. 2010; Hart et al. 2011) has been developed through a joint effort of the investigators from UCLA and JPL. RCMES is also a regional climate component of a larger worldwide ExArch project. We will present the evaluation of the surface temperatures and precipitation from multiple RCMs participating in the African component of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) that has organized a suite of regional climate projection experiments in which multiple RCMs and GCMs are incorporated. As a part of the project, CORDEX organized a 20-year regional climate hindcast study in order to quantify and understand the uncertainties originating from model errors. Investigators from JPL, UCLA, and the CORDEX-Africa team collaborate to analyze the RCM hindcast data using RCMES. The analysis is focused on measuring the closeness between individual regional climate model outputs as well as their ensembles and observed data. The model evaluation is quantified in terms of widely used metrics. Details on the conceptual outline and architecture of RCMES is presented in two companion papers "The Regional climate model Evaluation System (RCMES) based on contemporary satellite and other observations for assessing regional climate model fidelity" and "A Reusable Framework for Regional Climate Model Evaluation" in GC07 and IN30, respectively.

Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

2010-12-01

Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available management options to meet demands for food and energy over the next century. The coupled models provide a new platform for evaluating future changes in agricultural management based on food demand, bioenergy demand, and changes in crop yield and soil C under a changing climate. This framework can be applied to evaluate the economically and biophysically optimal distribution of management under future climates.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

2016-02-16

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

PubMed Central

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

2016-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Willems, P; Olsson, J; Beecham, S; Pathirana, A; Bülow Gregersen, I; Madsen, H; Nguyen, V-T-V

2013-01-01

A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of how to describe precipitation patterns in a changing climate in order to design and operate urban drainage infrastructure. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Index-based framework for assessing climate change impact on wetlands in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Keeffe, Joanna; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Utratna, Marta; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Okruszko, Tomasz

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to impact the water cycle through changing the precipitation levels, river streamflows, soil moisture dynamics and therefore pose a threat to groundwater and surface-water fed wetlands and their biodiversity. We examined the past trends and future impacts of climate change on streamflow and soil water content. Simulation results from 1971 to 2000 (historical period) and from 2021 to 2100 (future period) were obtained with the use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Hydrological modelling was driven by a set of nine EUROCORDEX Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP's) of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories: 4.5 and 8.5. A special focus was made on water dependent habitats within the Special Areas of Conservation (SAC's) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. A habitat assessment was carried out to distinguish groundwater and surface water fed wetlands. By establishing threshold values of streamflow at bankfull flow we were able to identify flood events. Changes in frequency of the floods informed about the alteration to the water supply for wetlands reliant on inundation. The groundwater-fed wetlands were assessed on the basis of the soil water content. The model outputs were used to develop indices which were calculated for the climate change scenarios. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil water content and streamflow dynamics with average annual precipitation showed largely consistent patterns. The developed indicators are sensitive to projected changes in hydrologic regime in the conditions of changing climate. The results show influence of climate change on floodplain and groundwater-fed wetlands and show the number and kind of wetlands threatened in different regions of Poland. SAC's will play an important role of buffers and water regulators as soil water content in SAC's is projected to be higher than average for the future scenarios.

Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

2015-01-01

We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Jinsoo; Choi, Jisun; Choi, Chuluong; Park, Soyoung

2013-05-01

This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, South Korea, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). First, a LULC change model was developed using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 storylines and logistic regression. Three scenarios (climate change only, LULC change only, and climate and LULC change combined) were established, and the streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Under climate change only, streamflow increased in spring and winter but decreased in summer and autumn, whereas LULC change increased high flow during wet periods but decreased low flow in dry periods. Although the LULC change had less effect than climate change on the changes in streamflow, the effect of LULC change on streamflow was significant. The result for the combined scenario was similar to that of the climate change only scenario, but with larger seasonal changes in streamflow. Although the effects of LULC change were smaller than those caused by climate change, LULC changes may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by climate change. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variance decomposition shows the importance of human-climate feedbacks in the Earth system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.

2017-12-01

The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. Current climate change projections contain significant uncertainties, however, and because Earth System Models do not generally include dynamic human (demography, economy, energy, water, land use) components, little is known about how climate feedbacks contribute to that uncertainty. Here we use variance decomposition of a novel coupled human-earth system model to show that the influence of human-climate feedbacks can be as large as 17% of the total variance in the near term for global mean temperature rise, and 11% in the long term for cropland area. The near-term contribution of energy and land use feedbacks to the climate on global mean temperature rise is as large as that from model internal variability, a factor typically considered in modeling studies. Conversely, the contribution of climate feedbacks to cropland extent, while non-negligible, is less than that from socioeconomics, policy, or model. Previous assessments have largely excluded these feedbacks, with the climate community focusing on uncertainty due to internal variability, scenario, and model and the integrated assessment community focusing on uncertainty due to socioeconomics, technology, policy, and model. Our results set the stage for a new generation of models and hypothesis testing to determine when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments of climate change.

States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Bronzan, J.; Rodehorst, B.; Bhat, C.; Dix, B.; Savonis, M.; Wiles, R.

2015-12-01

Many states are already experiencing the costly impacts of extreme climate and weather events. The occurrence, frequency and intensity of these events may change under future climates. Preparing for these changes takes time, and state government agencies and communities need to recognize the risks they could potentially face and the response actions already undertaken. The States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card project is the first-ever study that quantifies five climate-change-driven hazards, and the relevant state government response actions in each of the 50 states. The changing characteristics of extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland and coastal flooding were assessed for the baseline period (around year 2000) through the years 2030 and 2050 across all 50 states. Bias-corrected statistically-downscaled (BCSD) climate projections (Reclamation, 2013) and hydrology projections (Reclamation, 2014) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 were used. The climate change response action analysis covers five critical sectors: Transportation, Energy, Water, Human Health and Communities. It examined whether there is evidence that the state is taking action to (1) reduce current risks, (2) raise its awareness of future risks, (3) plan for adaptation to the future risks, and (4) implement specific actions to reduce future risks for each applicable hazards. Results from the two analyses were aggregated and translated into a rating system that standardizes assessments across states, which can be easily understood by both technical and non-technical audiences. The findings in this study not only serve as a screening tool for states to recognize the hazards they could potentially face as climate changes, but also serve as a roadmap for states to address the gaps in response actions, and to improve climate preparedness and resilience.

The fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in Italy under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T R

2013-01-01

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an "indirect" plant-species-based one and a simple "direct" one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the "direct" approach was unsatisfactory, "indirect" models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species' responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats' distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.

Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

PubMed Central

Guo, Yanlong; Lu, Chunyan; Gao, Bei

2016-01-01

Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants. PMID:27781160

The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T. R.

2013-01-01

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an “indirect” plant-species-based one and a simple “direct” one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the “direct” approach was unsatisfactory, “indirect” models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species’ responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats’ distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future. PMID:23874787

Climate change impacts on irrigated rice and wheat production in Gomti River basin of India: a case study.

PubMed

Abeysingha, N S; Singh, Man; Islam, Adlul; Sehgal, V K

2016-01-01

Potential future impacts of climate change on irrigated rice and wheat production and their evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Gomti River basin were assessed by integrating a widely used hydrological model "Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)" and climate change scenario generated from MIROC (HiRes) global climate model. SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly streamflow data of four spatially distributed gauging stations and district wise wheat and rice yields data for the districts located within the basin. Simulation results showed an increase in mean annual rice yield in the range of 5.5-6.7, 16.6-20.2 and 26-33.4 % during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, mean annual wheat yield is also likely to increase by 13.9-15.4, 23.6-25.6 and 25.2-27.9 % for the same future time periods. Evapotranspiration for both wheat and rice is projected to increase in the range of 3-9.6 and 7.8-16.3 %, respectively. With increase in rainfall during rice growing season, irrigation water allocation for rice is likely to decrease (<5 %) in future periods, but irrigation water allocation for wheat is likely to increase by 17.0-45.3 % in future periods.

Harmonisation of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve

2009-06-01

In preparation for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change assessment (IPCC-AR5), the international community is developing new advanced computer models (CMs) to address the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land-use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being developed by four Integrated Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs) to be used as input to the CMs for future climate projections. The diversity of requirements and approaches among CMs and IAMs for tracking land-use changes (past, present, and future), presents major challenges for treating land-usemore » comprehensively and consistently between these communities. As part of an international working group, we have been working to meet these challenges by developing a "harmonized" set of land-use change scenarios that smoothly connects gridded historical reconstructions of land-use with future projections, in a format required by CMs. This approach to harmonizing the treatment of land-use between two key modeling communities, CMs and IAMs, represents a major advance that will facilitate more consistent and fuller treatments of land-use/land-use change effects including both CO2 emissions and corresponding land-surface changes.« less

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity

PubMed Central

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors’ experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public health There is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change. PMID:27190980

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-04-26

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion strategies of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Babel, Mukand S.

2017-04-01

This paper analyzes the climate change impact on water diversion plan of Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. The MWSP is an interbasin water transfer project aimed at diverting water from the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River basin to Kathmandu Valley for drinking water purpose. Future temperature and precipitation of the basin were predicted using the outputs of two regional climate models (RCMs) and two general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios which were then used as inputs to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the water availability and evaluate the water diversion strategies in the future. The average temperature of the basin is projected to increase by 2.35 to 4.25 °C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2085s. The average precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 6-18 % in the future. The annual water availability is projected to increase in the future; however, the variability is observed in monthly water availability in the basin. The water supply and demand scenarios of Kathmandu Valley was also examined by considering the population increase, unaccounted for water and water diversion from MWSP in the future. It is observed that even with the additional supply of water from MWSP and reduction of unaccounted for water, the Kathmandu Valley will be still under water scarcity in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful to formulate water supply and demand management strategies in Kathmandu Valley in the context of climate change in the future.

Viticultural zoning in Portugal: current conditions and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraga, H.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.

2012-04-01

Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.

Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamics in the Climate System: Past and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overpeck, J.; Whitlock, C.; Huntley, B.

2002-12-01

The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that climate change as large as is likely to occur in the next two centuries will drive change in the terrestrial biosphere that is both large and difficult to predict, or plan for. Many species, communities and ecosystems could experience rates of climate change, and "destination climates" that are unprecedented in their time on earth. The paleorecord also makes it clear that a wide range of possible climate system behavior, such as decades-long droughts, increases in large storm and flood frequency, and rapid sea level rise, all occurred repeatedly in the past, and for poorly understood reasons. These types of events, if they were to reoccur in the future, could have especially devastating impacts on biodiversity, both because their timing and spatial extent cannot be anticipated, and because the biota's natural defenses have been compromised by land-use, reductions in genetic flexibility, pollution, excess water utilization, invasive species, and other human influences. Vegetation disturbance (e.g., by disease, pests and fire) will undoubtedly be exacerbated by climate change (stress), but could also speed the rate at which terrestrial biosphere change takes place in the future. The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that major scientific challenges include an improved ability to model regional biospheric change, both past and future. This in turn will be a prerequisite to obtaining realistic estimates of future biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks, and thus to obtaining better assessments of future climate change. These steps will help generate the improved understanding of climate variability that is needed to manage global biodiversity. However, the most troubling message from the paleoenvironmental record is that unchecked anthropogenic climate change could make the Earth's 6th major mass extinction unavoidable.

Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I. P.

2007-12-01

This paper assesses the significance of the many sources of uncertainty in future groundwater recharge estimation, based on lessons learnt from an integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge in East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect simulations of future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping, rotations and management practices. Stochastic modelling of potential recharge showed median annual recharge decreasing under a High emissions future from 75 mm (1961-90) to 56 mm in the 2020s and 45 mm in the 2050s. However, the median values for individual simulations ranged from 46-75 mm (2020s) and 30-71 mm (2050s) highlighting a decreasing but uncertain trend. The impacts of (and uncertainty in) the climate scenarios are generally regionally more important than those of the socio-economic scenarios. However, locally, the impacts of the socio-economic scenarios can be significant, especially where there are large increases in urbanization, agricultural land cover, bioenergy production, or agricultural management practices. For example, management of soil conditions can increase potential groundwater recharge by around 5 %, but poor management can further reduce potential recharge by up to 15 %. The paper will demonstrate that to focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists

Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

2015-04-01

Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare traditional vulnerability distributions with more recent conceptualisation of risks, more research should be devoted to global assessments of climate change risk distributions.

Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maldonado, Julie; Bennett, Bull; Chief, Karletta; Cochran, Patricia; Cozetto, Karen; Gough, Bob; Hiza-Redsteer, Margaret M.; Lynn, Kathy; Maynard, Nancy; Voggesser, Garrit

2016-01-01

The organizers of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment (NCA) made a concerted effort to reach out to and collaborate with Indigenous peoples, resulting in the most comprehensive information to date on climate change impacts to Indigenous peoples in a US national assessment. Yet, there is still much room for improvement in assessment processes to ensure adequate recognition of Indigenous perspectives and Indigenous knowledge systems. This article discusses the process used in creating the Indigenous Peoples, Land, and Resources NCA chapter by a team comprised of tribal members, agencies, academics, and non-governmental organizations, who worked together to solicit, collect, and synthesize traditional knowledges and data from a diverse array of Indigenous communities across the US. It also discusses the synergy and discord between traditional knowledge systems and science and the emergence of cross-cutting issues and vulnerabilities for Indigenous peoples. The challenges of coalescing information about climate change and its impacts on Indigenous communities are outlined along with recommendations on the types of information to include in future assessment outputs. We recommend that future assessments – not only NCA, but other relevant local, regional, national, and international efforts aimed at the translation of climate information and assessments into meaningful actions – should support integration of Indigenous perspectives in a sustained way that builds respectful relationships and effectively engages Indigenous communities. Given the large number of tribes in the US and the current challenges and unique vulnerabilities of Indigenous communities, a special report focusing solely on climate change and Indigenous peoples is warranted.This article is part of a special issue on “The National Climate Assessment: Innovations in Science and Engagement” edited by Katharine Jacobs, Susanne Moser, and James Buizer.

Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L. O.

2009-12-01

Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach is being attempted in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) whereby multiple global models are used to drive multiple regional models for the current period and the mid-21st century over the continent. Progress in this endeavor will be reported.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

An Index-Based Assessment of Agricultural Water Scarcity for Sustainable Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. E.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, K. S.; Hyun, S.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

Global precipitation pattern is changing due to climate change, causing drought and water scarcity all around the world. As water is mandatory to all lives, water availability is becoming essential and so is sustainable water resource management. Especially in agriculture, water resource management is crucial, as it is directly connected to the production. However, many studies about water scarcity show limits by focusing on current situation and overlooking future possibilities of water availability. Also, most of the studies about water scarcity use single index or model. To overcome these shortcomings, we assessed agricultural water scarcity considering future climate, using water scarcity indices. We assessed present and future water scarcity using several indices and compared the results derived from each index. The study area of this research is South Korea, as drought is a prominent problem in agricultural sector. Precipitation in Korea is concentrated in summer, causing severe drought in spring and fall. Rainfall density in Korea is increasing with climate change, and sustainable water resource management is inevitable. In this research, we used irrigational demand along with current and future crop production of 2030 and 2050 as water demand. We projected the future (2020-2100) runoff of dams located in Korea as water demand under future scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The result showed severe water scarcity in Southern area of Korea both in the present and the future. It was due to increase of water demand and decrease of precipitation. It indicates that the water scarcity gets more intense in the future, and emphasizes the importance of water resource management of the southern part. This research will be valuable in establishing water resource management in agricultural sector for sustainable water availability in the future.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.

PubMed

Shafer, Sarah L; Bartlein, Patrick J; Gray, Elizabeth M; Pelltier, Richard T

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0-58.0°N latitude by 136.6-103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070-2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change.

PubMed

Shadkam, Somayeh; Ludwig, Fulco; van Vliet, Michelle T H; Pastor, Amandine; Kabat, Pavel

2016-07-15

Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

PubMed Central

Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana

2012-01-01

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change. PMID:23144840

Enabling Research Tools for Sustained Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leidner, Allison K.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Jasinski, Michael F.; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Waliser, Duane Edward; Lee, Tsengdar J.

2016-01-01

The U.S. Global Change Research Program Sustained Assessment process benefits from long-term investments in Earth science research that enable the scientific community to conduct assessment-relevant science. To this end, NASA initiated several research programs over the past five years to support the Earth observation community in developing indicators, datasets, research products, and tools to support ongoing and future National Climate Assessments. These activities complement NASA's ongoing Earth science research programs. One aspect of the assessment portfolio funds four "enabling tools" projects at NASA research centers. Each tool leverages existing capacity within the center, but has developed tailored applications and products for National Climate Assessments. The four projects build on the capabilities of a global atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA-2), a continental U.S. land surface reanalysis (NCA-LDAS), the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX), and a Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES). Here, we provide a brief overview of each enabling tool, highlighting the ways in which it has advanced assessment science to date. We also discuss how the assessment community can access and utilize these tools for National Climate Assessments and other sustained assessment activities.

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillett, Nathan P.; Shiogama, Hideo; Funke, Bernd; Hegerl, Gabriele; Knutti, Reto; Matthes, Katja; Santer, Benjamin D.; Stone, Daithi; Tebaldi, Claudia

2016-10-01

Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.

Teaching Historical Geology through a Climate Science Lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cleary, P.

2007-12-01

As traditional Geology departments choose to reinvent themselves in light of waning interest in rocks and fossils, waxing interest in environmental, interdisciplinary issues, and advancements in pedagogy that champion inquiry and student based learning, the question begs, "What is to be done with that behemoth, historical geology?" Typically an introductory earth history course presents the timeline background to the origin and evolution of the planet Earth. At UW-Parkside, Origin and History of the Earth is taught from a climatic and dynamic equilibrium perspective using the textbook Earth's Climate Past and Future by William F. Ruddiman. The course is sectioned into 4 parts: 1) Water, Oxygen and Life on Earth, 2) Feedbacks: Greenhouse and Snowball Earth, 3) Mass Extinctions and 4) Present and Future Climate Change. While the course retains a focus upon historical dating and sampling, plate tectonics, the Milankovitch cycles and evolution, students encounter those topics as applied to solving problems reconstructing past climates, assessing the evolution of the past and future atmosphere and investigating mass extinctions. In class, small group work allows us to replace much of the standard passive lecture format with activities and outcomes congruent with a broader, environmentally cohesive picture of the planet, particularly with respect to climate change. The curriculum, activities, outcomes and assessment strategies of this new approach to an ancient class will be discussed. As an introductory course, and possible general education course, the curriculum addresses current issues of climate change to a broader audience than upper level coursework.

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation--the importance of an integrated approach.

PubMed

Falloon, Pete; Betts, Richard

2010-11-01

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices. The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience. The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which "moderate" the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects. Crown Copyright © 2009. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climatology and Impact of Polar Lows in the North Atlantic: Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Clio; Haukeland, Magnus; Spengler, Thomas

2016-04-01

Polar lows are maritime cyclones occurring during cold air outbreaks in high latitudes. We use the Melbourne University algorithm to detect and track polar lows in the North Atlantic. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalyses as well as high resolution (25 and 50 km) global climate model data from GFDL for present and future climates. Cyclone track densities for the GFDL present climate and the ERA-Interim reanalyses compare well for the occurrence of present day polar lows. We also present cyclone track densities for future climates under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the early and late 21st century. Polar lows mainly form close to Svalbard but also along the coast of Greenland, in the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea. We present the shifts in location and intensity of polar lows for future climates and discuss potential reasons for these changes. During their lifetime, they travel several 100 kilometres and can reach the Norwegian coast as well as off-shore infrastructures. Therefore we also assess the difference between current and future occurrence of polar lows reaching the coast of Norway as well as areas with oil platforms and active fisheries. This analysis pinpoints the exposure to current and future impacts of polar lows on these socio-economic assets.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

PubMed

Kriticos, Darren J; Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security

PubMed Central

Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world’s worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management. PMID:27513336

Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.

PubMed

Aich, Valentin; Liersch, Stefan; Vetter, Tobias; Fournet, Samuel; Andersson, Jafet C M; Calmanti, Sandro; van Weert, Frank H A; Hattermann, Fred F; Paton, Eva N

2016-08-15

This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

2014-05-01

Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the quantification of the effects of climate change on hydrological response." Climate Change 35: 415-434. Hewitt, C. D. and D. J. Griggs (2004). "Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85: 1-566. Jiang, T., Y. D. Chen, C. Xu, X. Chen, X. Chen and V. P. Singh (2007). "Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China." Journal of hydrology 336: 316-333. Refsgaard, J. C., K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Drews, K. Halsnæs, E. Jeppesen, H. Madsen, A. Markandya, J. E. Olesen, J. R. Porter and J. H. Christensen (2013). "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - A Danish water management example." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18: 337-359.

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

2011-01-01

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

Treesearch

E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; F.S. III Chapin; S. Yi; C.C. Thompson

2009-01-01

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in...

Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia Plateau

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess ...

Assessing Potential Climate Change Effects on Loblolly Pine Growth: A Probabilistic Regional Modeling Approach

Treesearch

Peter B. Woodbury; James E. Smith; David A. Weinstein; John A. Laurence

1998-01-01

Most models of the potential effects of climate change on forest growth have produced deterministic predictions. However, there are large uncertainties in data on regional forest condition, estimates of future climate, and quantitative relationships between environmental conditions and forest growth rate. We constructed a new model to analyze these uncertainties...

Managing the Risks of Climate Change and Terrorism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosa, Eugene; Dietz, Tom; Moss, Richard H.

2012-04-07

Society has difficult decisions to make about how best to allocate its resources to ensure future sustainability. Risk assessment can be a valuable tool: it has long been used to support decisions to address environmental problems. But in a time when the risks to sustainability range from climate change to terrorism, applying risk assessment to sustainability will require careful rethinking. For new threats, we will need a new approach to risk assessment.

Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

2017-04-01

This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial distribution of recharge (both average value and its uncertainty) from the difference in P and EA in each area. A complete analysis of potential short-term (2016-2045) future climate scenarios in continental Spain has been performed by considering different sources of uncertainty. It is based on the historical climatic data for the period 1976-2005 and the climatic models simulations (for the control [1976-2005] and future scenarios [2016-2045]) performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The most pessimistic emission scenario (RCP8.5) has been considered. For the RCP8.5 scenario we have analyzed the time series generated by simulating with 5 Regional Climatic models (CCLM4-8-17, RCA4, HIRHAM5, RACMO22E, and WRF331F) nested to 4 different General Circulation Models (GCMs). Two different conceptual approaches (bias correction and delta change techniques) have been applied to generate potential future climate scenarios from these data. Different ensembles of obtained time series have been proposed to obtain more representative scenarios by considering all the simulations or only those providing better approximations to the historical statistics based on a multicriteria analysis. This was a step to analyze future potential impacts on the aquifer recharge by simulating them within a rainfall-recharge model. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) and the PMAFI/06/14 (UCAM) projects.

Determining the impacts of climate change and catchment development on future water availability in Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, David

2010-05-01

In a water-scarce country such as Australia, detailed, accurate and reliable assessments of current and future water availability are essential in order to adequately manage the limited water resource. This presentation describes a recently completed study which provided an assessment of current water availability in Tasmania, Australia, and also determined how this water availability would be impacted by climate change and proposed catchment development by the year 2030. The Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project (http://www.csiro.au/partnerships/TasSY.html) assessed current water availability through the application of rainfall-runoff models, river models, and recharge and groundwater models. These were calibrated to streamflow records and parameterised using estimates of current groundwater and surface water extractions and use. Having derived a credible estimate of current water availability, the impacts of future climate change on water availability were determined through deriving changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration from 15 IPCC AR4 global climate models. These changes in rainfall were then dynamically downscaled using the CSIRO-CCAM model over the relatively small study area (50,000 square km). A future climate sequence was derived by modifying the historical 84-year climate sequence based on these changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. This future climate sequence was then run through the rainfall-runoff, river, recharge and groundwater models to give an estimate of water availability under future climate. To estimate the impacts of future catchment development on water availability, the models were modified and re-run to reflect projected increases in development. Specifically, outputs from the rainfall-runoff and recharge models were reduced over areas of projected future plantation forestry. Conversely, groundwater recharge was increased over areas of new irrigated agriculture and new extractions of water for irrigation were implemented in the groundwater and river models. Results indicate that historical average water availability across the project area was 21,815 GL/year. Of this, 636 GL/year of surface water and 38 GL/year of groundwater are currently extracted for use. By 2030, rainfall is projected to decrease by an average of 3% over the project area. This decrease in rainfall and concurrent increase in potential evapotranspiration leads to a decrease in water availability of 5% by 2030. As a result of lower streamflows, under current cease-to-take rules, currently licensed extractions are projected to decrease by 3% (19 GL/year). This however is offset by an additional 120 GL/year of extractions for proposed new irrigated agriculture. These new extractions, along with the increase in commercial forest plantations lead to a reduction in total surface water of 1% in addition to the 5% reduction due to climate change. Results from this study are being used by the Tasmanian and Australian governments to guide the development of a sustainable irrigated agriculture industry in Tasmania. In part, this is necessary to offset the loss of irrigated agriculture from the southern Murray-Darling Basin where climate change induced reductions in rainfall are projected to be far worse.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

PROJECTING FUTURE-YEAR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS: EMERGING APPROACHES FROM THE EPA ORD GLOBAL CHANGE AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA's Office of Research and Development is exploring approaches for assessing the relative impacts of climate and emissions changes on future-year air quality. A challenge related to this effort is the development of emissions inventories out to the year 2050. This pap...

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change.

PubMed

Baron, Jill S; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nate

2009-12-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

The Use of Statistical Downscaling to Project Regional Climate Changes as they Relate to Future Energy Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; O'Steen, L.; Chen, K.; Altinakar, M. S.; Garrett, A.; Aleman, S.; Ramalingam, V.

2010-12-01

Global climate change has the potential for profound impacts on society, and poses significant challenges to government and industry in the areas of energy security and sustainability. Given that the ability to exploit energy resources often depends on the climate, the possibility of climate change means we cannot simply assume that the untapped potential of today will still exist in the future. Predictions of future climate are generally based on global climate models (GCMs) which, due to computational limitations, are run at spatial resolutions of hundreds of kilometers. While the results from these models can predict climatic trends averaged over large spatial and temporal scales, their ability to describe the effects of atmospheric phenomena that affect weather on regional to local scales is inadequate. We propose the use of several optimized statistical downscaling techniques that can infer climate change at the local scale from coarse resolution GCM predictions, and apply the results to assess future sustainability for two sources of energy production dependent on adequate water resources: nuclear power (through the dissipation of waste heat from cooling towers, ponds, etc.) and hydroelectric power. All methods will be trained with 20th century data, and applied to data from the years 2040-2049 to get the local-scale changes. Models of cooling tower operation and hydropower potential will then use the downscaled data to predict the possible changes in energy production, and the implications of climate change on plant siting, design, and contribution to the future energy grid can then be examined.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D.; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A.; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2009-01-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Understanding climate: A strategy for climate modeling and predictability research, 1985-1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thiele, O. (Editor); Schiffer, R. A. (Editor)

1985-01-01

The emphasis of the NASA strategy for climate modeling and predictability research is on the utilization of space technology to understand the processes which control the Earth's climate system and it's sensitivity to natural and man-induced changes and to assess the possibilities for climate prediction on time scales of from about two weeks to several decades. Because the climate is a complex multi-phenomena system, which interacts on a wide range of space and time scales, the diversity of scientific problems addressed requires a hierarchy of models along with the application of modern empirical and statistical techniques which exploit the extensive current and potential future global data sets afforded by space observations. Observing system simulation experiments, exploiting these models and data, will also provide the foundation for the future climate space observing system, e.g., Earth observing system (EOS), 1985; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) North, et al. NASA, 1984.

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Ray, Andrea J.; Noon, Barry R

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Ray, Andrea J; Noon, Barry R

2017-11-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

2013-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

2013-12-01

A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a mitigation level of 3.7 W/m2, as well as consideration of different levels of climate sensitivity (2, 3, 4.5 and 6oC) and different initial conditions for addressing uncertainty. Since the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 protocols did not include this mitigation level or consider alternative levels of climate sensitivity, additional climate projections were required. These two cases will be discussed to illustrate some of the trade-offs made in development of methodologies for climate impact assessments that are intended for a specific user or audience, and oriented towards addressing a specific topic of interest and providing useable results. This involvement of stakeholders from the design phase of climate impacts methodology serves to both define the appropriate method for the question at hand and also to engage and inform the stakeholders of the myriad options and uncertainties associated with different methodology choices. This type of engagement should benefit decision making in the long run through greater stakeholder understanding of the science of future climate model projections, scenarios, the climate impacts sector models and the types of outputs that can be generated by each along with the respective uncertainties at each step of the climate impacts assessment process.

Carbon dioxide and climate: a second assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

For over a century, concern has been expressed that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/) concentration could affect global climate by changing the heat balance of the atmosphere and Earth. Observations reveal steadily increasing concentrations of CO/sub 2/, and experiments with numerical climate models indicate that continued increase would eventually produce significant climatic change. Comprehensive assessment of the issue will require projection of future CO/sub 2/ emissions and study of the disposition of this excess carbon in the atmosphere, ocean, and biota; the effect on climate; and the implications for human welfare. This study focuses on one aspect, estimationmore » of the effect on climate of assumed future increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/. Conclusions are drawn principally from present-day numerical models of the climate system. To address the significant role of the oceans, the study also makes use of observations of the distributions of anthropogenic tracers other than CO/sub 2/. The rapid scientific developments in these areas suggest that periodic reassessments will be warranted. The starting point for the study was a similar 1979 review by a Climate Research Board panel chaired by the late Jule G. Charney. The present study has not found any new results that necessitate substantial revision of the conclusions of the Charney report.« less

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Decomposing the uncertainty in climate impact projections of Dynamic Vegetation Models: a test with the forest models LANDCLIM and FORCLIM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald

2015-04-01

Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but not so much at medium elevations. (ii) Considering climate change, the variability that is due to the GCM-RCM chains is much greater than the variability induced by the uncertainty in the initial climatic conditions. (iii) The uncertainties caused by the intrinsic stochasticity in the DVMs and by the random generation of the climate time-series are negligible. Overall, our results indicate that DVMs are quite sensitive to the climate data, highlighting particularly (1) the limitations of using one single multi-model average climate change scenario in climate impact studies and (2) the need to better consider the uncertainty in climate model outputs for projecting future vegetation changes.

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-01

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.

Effectiveness and Tradeoffs between Portfolios of Adaptation Strategies Addressing Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Van Lienden, B.; Das, T.; Munevar, A.; Young, C. A.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Huntington, J. L.

2013-12-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the major agricultural areas in the United States. The Central Valley Project (CVP) is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation to serve multiple purposes including generating approximately 4.3 million gigawatt hours of hydropower and providing, on average, 5 million acre-feet of water per year to irrigate approximately 3 million acres of land in the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Lake basins, 600,000 acre-feet per year of water for urban users, and 800,000 acre-feet of annual supplies for environmental purposes. The development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies requires assessing multiple risks including potential climate changes as well as uncertainties in future socioeconomic conditions. In this study, a scenario-based analytical approach was employed by combining three potential 21st century socioeconomic futures with six representative climate and sea level change projections developed using a transient hybrid delta ensemble method from an archive of 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP3 global climate model simulations to form 18 future socioeconomic-climate scenarios. To better simulate the effects of climate changes on agricultural water demands, analyses of historical agricultural meteorological station records were employed to develop estimates of future changes in solar radiation and atmospheric humidity from the GCM simulated temperature and precipitation. Projected changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were computed directly by weighting SRES emissions scenarios included in each representative climate projection. These results were used as inputs to a calibrated crop water use, growth and yield model to simulate the effects of climate changes on the evapotranspiration and yields of major crops grown in the Central Valley. Existing hydrologic, reservoir operations, water quality, hydropower, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and both urban and agricultural economic models were integrated into a suite of decision support tools to assess the impacts of future socioeconomic-climate uncertainties on key performance metrics for the CVP, State Water Project and other Central Valley water management systems under current regulatory requirements. Four thematic portfolios consisting of regional and local adaptation strategies including changes in reservoir operations, increased water conservation, storage and conveyance were developed and simulated to evaluate their potential effectiveness in meeting delivery reliability, water quality, environmental, hydropower, GHG, urban and agricultural economic performance criteria. The results indicate that the portfolios exhibit a considerable range of effectiveness depending on the socioeconomic-climate scenario. For most criteria, the portfolios were more sensitive to climate projections than socioeconomic assumptions. However, the results demonstrate that important tradeoffs occur between portfolios depending on the performance criteria considered.

Hourly test reference weather data in the changing climate of Finland for building energy simulations.

PubMed

Jylhä, Kirsti; Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Jokisalo, Juha; Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina; Kalamees, Targo; Mäkelä, Hanna; Hyvönen, Reijo; Drebs, Achim

2015-09-01

Dynamic building energy simulations need hourly weather data as input. The same high temporal resolution is required for assessments of future heating and cooling energy demand. The data presented in this article concern current typical values and estimated future changes in outdoor air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and global, diffuse and normal solar radiation components. Simulated annual and seasonal delivered energy consumptions for heating of spaces, heating of ventilation supply air and cooling of spaces in the current and future climatic conditions are also presented for an example house, with district heating and a mechanical space cooling system. We provide details on how the synthetic future weather files were created and utilised as input data for dynamic building energy simulations by the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy program and also for calculations of heating and cooling degree-day sums. The information supplied here is related to the research article titled "Energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential houses in Finland in a changing climate" [1].

Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

2014-05-01

In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

2014-12-01

Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

A design for a sustained assessment of climate forcings and feedbacks on land use land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul

2014-01-01

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly influences the climate system. Hence, to prepare the nation for future climate change and variability, a sustained assessment of LULCC and its climatic impacts needs to be undertaken. To address this objective, not only do we need to determine contemporary trends in land use and land cover that affect, or are affected by, weather and climate but also identify sectors and regions that are most affected by weather and climate variability. Moreover, it is critical that we recognize land cover and regions that are most vulnerable to climate change and how end-use practices are adapting to climate change. This paper identifies a series of steps that need to be undertaken to address these key items. In addition, national-scale institutional capabilities are identified and discussed. Included in the discussions are challenges and opportunities for collaboration among these institutions for a sustained assessment.

Assessing present and future climate changes in Siberia and their regional socioeconomic consequences using a web-based big data geoprocessing platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, V. A.; Gordov, E. P.

2016-12-01

Recently initiated collaborative research project is presented. Its main objective is to develop high spatial and temporal resolution datasets for studying the ongoing and future climate changes in Siberia, caused by global and regional processes in the atmosphere and the ocean. This goal will be achieved by using a set of regional and global climate models for the analysis of the mechanisms of climate change and quantitative assessment of changes in key climate variables, including analysis of extreme weather and climate events and their dynamics, evaluation of the frequency, amplitude and the risks caused by the extreme events in the region. The main practical application of the project is to provide experts, stakeholders and the public with quantitative information about the future climate change in Siberia obtained on the base of a computational web- geoinformation platform. The thematic platform will be developed in order to facilitate processing and analysis of high resolution georeferenced datasets that will be delivered and made available to scientific community, policymakes and other end users as a result of the project. Software packages will be developed to implement calculation of various climatological indicators in order to characterize and diagnose climate change and its dynamics, as well as to archive results in digital form of electronic maps (GIS layers). By achieving these goals the project will provide science based tools necessary for developing mitigation measures for adapting to climate change and reducing negative impact on the population and infrastructure of the region. Financial support of the computational web- geoinformation platform prototype development by the RF Ministry of Education and Science under Agreement 14.613.21.0037 (RFMEFI61315X0037) is acknowledged.

Risk assessments of regional climate change over Europe: generation of probabilistic ensemble and uncertainty assessment for EURO-CODEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, J.; Kopp, R. E.

2017-12-01

Quantitative risk analysis of regional climate change is crucial for risk management and impact assessment of climate change. Two major challenges to assessing the risks of climate change are: CMIP5 model runs, which drive EURO-CODEX downscaling runs, do not cover the full range of uncertainty of future projections; Climate models may underestimate the probability of tail risks (i.e. extreme events). To overcome the difficulties, this study offers a viable avenue, where a set of probabilistic climate ensemble is generated using the Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) method. The probabilistic ensembles for temperature and precipitation are used to assess the range of uncertainty covered by five bias-corrected simulations from the high-resolution (0.11º) EURO-CODEX database, which are selected by the PESETA (The Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) III project. Results show that the distribution of SMME ensemble is notably wider than both distribution of raw ensemble of GCMs and the spread of the five EURO-CORDEX in RCP8.5. Tail risks are well presented by the SMME ensemble. Both SMME ensemble and EURO-CORDEX projections are aggregated to administrative level, and are integrated into impact functions of PESETA III to assess climate risks in Europe. To further evaluate the uncertainties introduced by the downscaling process, we compare the 5 runs from EURO-CORDEX with runs from the corresponding GCMs. Time series of regional mean, spatial patterns, and climate indices are examined for the future climate (2080-2099) deviating from the present climate (1981-2010). The downscaling processes do not appear to be trend-preserving, e.g. the increase in regional mean temperature from EURO-CORDEX is slower than that from the corresponding GCM. The spatial pattern comparison reveals that the differences between each pair of GCM and EURO-CORDEX are small in winter. In summer, the temperatures of EURO-CORDEX are generally lower than those of GCMs, while the drying trends in precipitation of EURO-CORDEX are smaller than those of GCMs. Climate indices are significantly affected by bias-correction and downscaling process. Our study provides valuable information for selecting climate indices in different regions over Europe.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Lyra, André; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961-1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021-2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution

PubMed Central

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario. PMID:29694355

Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

2014-05-01

The water balance in each reservoir and the subsequent, related, water resource management decisions are, presently, highly information dependent and are therefore often limited to a reactive response (even if aimed towards preventing future issues regarding the water system). Taking advantage of the availability of scenarios for climate projections, it is now possible to estimate the likely future evolution of climate which represents an important stepping stone towards proactive, adaptative, water resource management. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential effects of climate change in terms of temperature, precipitation, runoff and water availability/scarcity for application in water resource management decisions. The analysis here presented was applied to the Portuguese portion of the Guadiana River Basin, using a combination of observed climate and runoff data and the results of the Global Climate Models. The Guadiana River Basin was represented by its reservoirs on the Portuguese portion of the basin and, for the future period, an estimated value of the inflows originating in the Spanish part of the Basin. The change in climate was determined in terms of relative and absolute variations of climate (precipitation and temperature) and hydrology (runoff and water balance related information). Apart from the previously referred data, an hydrological model and a water management model were applied so as to obtain an extended range of data regarding runoff generation (calibrated to observed data) and water balance in the reservoirs (considering the climate change impacts in the inflows, outflows and water consumption). The water management model was defined in order to represent the reservoirs interaction including upstream to downstream discharges and water transfers. Under the present climate change context, decision-makers and stakeholders are ever more vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate. Projected climate in the Guadiana basin indicates an increase in temperatures and a reduction of the precipitation values which go well beyond the observed values and, therefore, must be forcefully included in any realistic proactive water resource management decision. Using the results of this study it is possible to estimate future water availability and consumption satisfaction allowing for the elaboration of informed management decisions. In this study, the CMIP 3 Global Climate Models were considered for the definition of the effects of climate change, using the median and extreme tendencies based on the range of variation of the multiple climate projection scenarios. The observed climate variability, along with these model-derived tendencies, were used to inform the hydrology and water management models for the historical and future periods, respectively. Additionally, for a more comprehensive analysis on climate variability, a stochastic model was implemented based on the paleoclimate variability obtained from tree-ring records.

Climate change and its impacts on estuaries

EPA Science Inventory

Past, present, and future research by WED scientists in the TEP region will be described to lay the foundation for examination of potential climate change effects on estuaries and the broader coastal zone in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Results from National Coastal Assessments,...

Climate and Land Use Change Effects on Ecological Resources in Three Watersheds: A Synthesis Report (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of this draft report is to provide a summary of climate change impacts to selected watersheds and recommendations for how to improve the process of conducting watershed assessments in the future.

Douglas J. Arent - Deputy Associate Lab Director, Scientific Computing

Science.gov Websites

Coordinating Lead Author for the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC of Sciences Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, and also served on the

Assessing the resilience of Norway spruce forests through a model-based reanalysis of thinning trials☆

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Vigl, Friedrich; Rössler, Günter; Neumann, Markus; Rammer, Werner

2017-01-01

As a result of a rapidly changing climate the resilience of forests is an increasingly important property for ecosystem management. Recent efforts have improved the theoretical understanding of resilience, yet its operational quantification remains challenging. Furthermore, there is growing awareness that resilience is not only a means to addressing the consequences of climate change but is also affected by it, necessitating a better understanding of the climate sensitivity of resilience. Quantifying current and future resilience is thus an important step towards mainstreaming resilience thinking into ecosystem management. Here, we present a novel approach for quantifying forest resilience from thinning trials, and assess the climate sensitivity of resilience using process-based ecosystem modeling. We reinterpret the wide range of removal intensities and frequencies in thinning trials as an experimental gradient of perturbation, and estimate resilience as the recovery rate after perturbation. Our specific objectives were (i) to determine how resilience varies with stand and site conditions, (ii) to assess the climate sensitivity of resilience across a range of potential future climate scenarios, and (iii) to evaluate the robustness of resilience estimates to different focal indicators and assessment methodologies. We analyzed three long-term thinning trials in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests across an elevation gradient in Austria, evaluating and applying the individual-based process model iLand. The resilience of Norway spruce was highest at the montane site, and decreased at lower elevations. Resilience also decreased with increasing stand age and basal area. The effects of climate change were strongly context-dependent: At the montane site, where precipitation levels were ample even under climate change, warming increased resilience in all scenarios. At lower elevations, however, rising temperatures decreased resilience, particularly at precipitation levels below 750–800 mm. Our results were largely robust to different focal variables and resilience definitions. Based on our findings management can improve the capacity to recover from partial disturbances by avoiding overmature and overstocked conditions. At increasingly water limited sites a strongly decreasing resilience of Norway spruce will require a shift towards tree species better adapted to the expected future conditions. PMID:28860674

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Climate Resiliency Planning Process and Lessons Learned

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fowler, Kimberly M.; Judd, Kathleen S.; Brandenberger, Jill M.

2016-02-22

In 2015, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed its first Climate Resilience Plan for its Richland Campus. PNNL has performed Climate Resilience Planning for the Department of Defense, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and Department of Energy (DOE) over the past 5 years. The assessment team included climate scientists, social scientists, engineers, and operations managers. A multi-disciplinary team was needed to understand the potential exposures to future changes at the site, the state of the science on future impacts, and the best process for “mainstreaming” new actions into existing activities. The team uncovered that the site’s greatest vulnerabilities, and therefore prioritiesmore » for climate resilience planning, are high temperature due to degraded infrastructure, increased wildfire frequency, and intense precipitation impacts on stormwater conveyance systems.« less

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

2013-12-01

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and demand systems. As well, endogenous adaptation in the agricultural sector--mostly through inter-regional shifting in production and changes in trade patterns--limits the shock of climate impacts to consumers. Global average climate impacts on wheat yields for the four emissions scenarios, using base-year weights (asterisks) and using the endogenous land allocations in GCAM (filled diamonds)

National Assessment of Human Health Effects of Climate Change in Portugal: Approach and Key Findings

PubMed Central

Casimiro, Elsa; Calheiros, Jose; Santos, Filipe Duarte; Kovats, Sari

2006-01-01

In this study we investigated the potential impact of climate change in Portugal on heat-related mortality, air pollution–related health effects, and selected vectorborne diseases. The assessment used climate scenarios from two regional climate models for a range of future time periods. The annual heat-related death rates in Lisbon may increase from between 5.4 and 6 per 100,000 in 1980–1998 to between 8.5 and 12.1 by the 2020s and to a maximum of 29.5 by the 2050s, if no adaptations occur. The projected warmer and more variable weather may result in better dispersion of nitrogen dioxide levels in winter, whereas the higher temperatures may reduce air quality during the warmer months by increasing tropospheric ozone levels. We estimated the future risk of zoonoses using ecologic scenarios to describe future changes in vectors and parasites. Malaria and schistosomiasis, which are currently not endemic in Portugal, are more sensitive to the introduction of infected vectors than to temperature changes. Higher temperatures may increase the transmission risk of zoonoses that are currently endemic to Portugal, such as leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, and Mediterranean spotted fever. PMID:17185290

Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishiwa, Peter; Nobert, Joel; Kongo, Victor; Ndomba, Preksedis

2018-05-01

This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16-18 % in 2050s relative to 1980-1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 °C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Osborn, T.; Conway, D.; Warren, R.; Hankin, R.

2012-04-01

Extreme weather/climate events have significant environmental and societal impacts, and anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter their characteristics (IPCC, 2011). Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic systems. Climate change is stimulating demand, from public and private sector decision-makers and also other stakeholders, for better understanding of potential future drought patterns which could facilitate disaster risk management. There remain considerable levels of uncertainty in climate change projections, particularly in relation to extreme events. Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of the climate system has led to the development of various emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and global climate models (GCMs). Uncertainties arise also from the different types and definitions of drought. This study examines climate change-induced changes in European drought characteristics, and illustrates the robustness of these projections by quantifying the effects of using different emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and GCMs. This is achieved by using the multi-institutional modular "Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)" (Warren et al., 2008), a flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Simulations generated by the simple climate model MAGICC6.0 are assessed. These include ten C4MIP carbon cycle models and eighteen CMIP3 GCMs under five IPCC SRES emission scenarios, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and three mitigation scenarios with CO2-equivalent levels stabilising at 550 ppm, 500 ppm and 450 ppm. Using an ensemble of 2160 future precipitation scenarios, we present an analysis on both short (3-month) and long (12-month) meteorological droughts based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the baseline period (1951-2000) and two future periods of 2001-2050 and 2051-2100. Results indicate, with the exception of high latitude regions, a marked increase in drought condition across Europe especially in the second half of 21st century. Patterns, however, vary substantially depending on the model, emission scenario, region and season. While the variance introduced by choice of carbon cycle model is of minor importance, contribution of emission scenario becomes more important in the second half of the century; nevertheless, GCM uncertainty remains the dominant source throughout the 21st century and across all regions.

Impacts of climate change and renewable energy development on habitat of an endemic squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis, in the Mojave Desert, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Dilts, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Predicting changes in species distributions under a changing climate is becoming widespread with the use of species distribution models (SDMs). The resulting predictions of future potential habitat can be cast in light of planned land use changes, such as urban expansion and energy development to identify areas with potential conflict. However, SDMs rarely incorporate an understanding of dispersal capacity, and therefore assume unlimited dispersal in potential range shifts under uncertain climate futures. We use SDMs to predict future distributions of the Mojave ground squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam, and incorporate partial dispersal models informed by field data on juvenile dispersal to assess projected impact of climate change and energy development on future distributions of X. mohavensis. Our models predict loss of extant habitat, but also concurrent gains of new habitat under two scenarios of future climate change. Under the B1 emissions scenario- a storyline describing a convergent world with emphasis on curbing greenhouse gas emissions- our models predicted losses of up to 64% of extant habitat by 2080, while under the increased greenhouse gas emissions of the A2 scenario, we suggest losses of 56%. New potential habitat may become available to X. mohavensis, thereby offsetting as much as 6330 km2 (50%) of the current habitat lost. Habitat lost due to planned energy development was marginal compared to habitat lost from changing climates, but disproportionately affected current habitat. Future areas of overlap in potential habitat between the two climate change scenarios are identified and discussed in context of proposed energy development.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes Scapularis in Canada Inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

PubMed Central

McPherson, Michelle; García-García, Almudena; Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Ogden, Nicholas Hume

2017-01-01

Background: A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. Objectives: We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. Methods: We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical (1971–2000), and to forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis for the periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. Results: Increases in the multimodel mean R0 values estimated for both future periods, relative to 1971–2000, were statistically significant under all RCP scenarios for all of Nova Scotia, areas of New Brunswick and Quebec, Ontario south of 47°N, and Manitoba south of 52°N. When comparing RCP scenarios, only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences for any future time period. Conclusion: Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP57 PMID:28599266

Central Appalachians forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Appalachians Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Patricia R. Butler; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Leslie Brandt; Stephen Handler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Kent Karriker; Jarel Bartig; Stephanie Connolly; William Dijak; Scott Bearer; Steve Blatt; Andrea Brandon; Elizabeth Byers; Cheryl Coon; Tim Culbreth; Jad Daly; Wade Dorsey; David Ede; Chris Euler; Neil Gillies; David M. Hix; Catherine Johnson; Latasha Lyte; Stephen Matthews; Dawn McCarthy; Dave Minney; Daniel Murphy; Claire O’Dea; Rachel Orwan; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Cotton Randall; Jason Reed; Cynthia Sandeno; Tom Schuler; Lesley Sneddon; Bill Stanley; Al Steele; Susan Stout; Randy Swaty; Jason Teets; Tim Tomon; Jim Vanderhorst; John Whatley; Nicholas Zegre

2015-01-01

Forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachians will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachian Broadleaf Forest-Coniferous Forest-Meadow and Eastern Broadleaf Forest Provinces of Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland for a range of future...

Early action on HFCs mitigates future atmospheric change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2016-11-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 K at 80 hPa. The HFC mitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Early Action on Hfcs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2016-01-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying theUNFCCCParis Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid- 21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 Kat 80 hPa. The HFCmitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Predicting the distributions of Egypt's medicinal plants and their potential shifts under future climate change.

PubMed

Kaky, Emad; Gilbert, Francis

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most difficult of challenges to conserving biodiversity, especially for countries with few data on the distributions of their taxa. Species distribution modelling is a modern approach to the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, with the great advantage of being robust to small amounts of data. Taking advantage of a recently validated dataset, we use the medicinal plants of Egypt to identify hotspots of diversity now and in the future by predicting the effect of climate change on the pattern of species richness using species distribution modelling. Then we assess how Egypt's current Protected Area network is likely to perform in protecting plants under climate change. The patterns of species richness show that in most cases the A2a 'business as usual' scenario was more harmful than the B2a 'moderate mitigation' scenario. Predicted species richness inside Protected Areas was higher than outside under all scenarios, indicating that Egypt's PAs are well placed to help conserve medicinal plants.

Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

2011-12-01

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

2014-01-01

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

PubMed Central

Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Kutt, Alex S

2012-01-01

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this “realistic” dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species’ range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species. PMID:22837819

Climate Impacts Already Affect Every Region of the United States, Report Warns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2014-05-01

"Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present," according to the third iteration of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), issued by the White House on 6 May. "The observed warming and other climatic changes are triggering wide-ranging impacts in every region of our country and throughout our economy," states the report, titled Climate Change Impacts in the United States, issued through the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, O.

2017-12-01

Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this level of decarbonisation. In extreme condition (positive correlation between the 3 issues discussed) the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL creates pathways requiring additional negative emission technologies at the end of this century to keep temperature change well below 2°C.

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lontzek, Thomas S.; Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2015-05-01

Perhaps the most `dangerous’ aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts. The likelihood of such large-scale singular events is expected to increase with global warming, but is fundamentally uncertain. A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model, based on the widely used deterministic DICE model. The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions, which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously), consistent with scientific understanding. Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by ~50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy are being underestimated, and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate.

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Payer, David C.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2013-01-01

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

The potential health impacts of climate variability and change for the United States: executive summary of the report of the health sector of the U.S. National Assessment.

PubMed Central

Patz, J A; McGeehin, M A; Bernard, S M; Ebi, K L; Epstein, P R; Grambsch, A; Gubler, D J; Reither, P; Romieu, I; Rose, J B; Samet, J M; Trtanj, J

2000-01-01

We examined the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human health as part of a congressionally mandated study of climate change in the United States. Our author team, comprising experts from academia, government, and the private sector, was selected by the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program, and this report stems from our first 18 months of work. For this assessment we used a set of assumptions and/or projections of future climates developed for all participants in the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. We identified five categories of health outcomes that are most likely to be affected by climate change because they are associated with weather and/or climate variables: temperature-related morbidity and mortality; health effects of extreme weather events (storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and precipitation extremes); air-pollution-related health effects; water- and foodborne diseases; and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. We concluded that the levels of uncertainty preclude any definitive statement on the direction of potential future change for each of these health outcomes, although we developed some hypotheses. Although we mainly addressed adverse health outcomes, we identified some positive health outcomes, notably reduced cold-weather mortality, which has not been extensively examined. We found that at present most of the U.S. population is protected against adverse health outcomes associated with weather and/or climate, although certain demographic and geographic populations are at increased risk. We concluded that vigilance in the maintenance and improvement of public health systems and their responsiveness to changing climate conditions and to identified vulnerable subpopulations should help to protect the U.S. population from any adverse health outcomes of projected climate change. PMID:10753097

The potential health impacts of climate variability and change for the United States: executive summary of the report of the health sector of the U.S. National Assessment.

PubMed

Patz, J A; McGeehin, M A; Bernard, S M; Ebi, K L; Epstein, P R; Grambsch, A; Gubler, D J; Reither, P; Romieu, I; Rose, J B; Samet, J M; Trtanj, J

2000-04-01

We examined the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human health as part of a congressionally mandated study of climate change in the United States. Our author team, comprising experts from academia, government, and the private sector, was selected by the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program, and this report stems from our first 18 months of work. For this assessment we used a set of assumptions and/or projections of future climates developed for all participants in the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. We identified five categories of health outcomes that are most likely to be affected by climate change because they are associated with weather and/or climate variables: temperature-related morbidity and mortality; health effects of extreme weather events (storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and precipitation extremes); air-pollution-related health effects; water- and foodborne diseases; and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. We concluded that the levels of uncertainty preclude any definitive statement on the direction of potential future change for each of these health outcomes, although we developed some hypotheses. Although we mainly addressed adverse health outcomes, we identified some positive health outcomes, notably reduced cold-weather mortality, which has not been extensively examined. We found that at present most of the U.S. population is protected against adverse health outcomes associated with weather and/or climate, although certain demographic and geographic populations are at increased risk. We concluded that vigilance in the maintenance and improvement of public health systems and their responsiveness to changing climate conditions and to identified vulnerable subpopulations should help to protect the U.S. population from any adverse health outcomes of projected climate change.

Climate change and coffee: assessing vulnerability by modeling future climate suitability in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Stephen J. Fain; Maya Quiñones; Nora L. Álvarez-Berríos; Isabel K. Parés-Ramos; William A. Gould

2017-01-01

Coffee production has long been culturally and economically important in Puerto Rico. However, since peaking in the late nineteenth century, harvests are near record lows with many former farms abandoned. While value-added markets present new opportunities to reinvigorate the industry, regional trends associated with climate change may threaten the ability to produce...

Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.

2017-12-01

The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

Making climate change tangible for strategic adaptation planning: The Climate Corridor Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlowsky, Boris; Calanca, Pierluigi; Ali, Irshad; Ali, Jawad; Elguera Hilares, Agustin; Huggel, Christian; Khan, Inamullah; Neukom, Raphael; Nizami, Arjumand; Qazi, Muhammad Abbas; Robledo, Carmenza; Rohrer, Mario; Salzmann, Nadine; Schmidt, Kaspar

2017-04-01

Climate change is a global phenomenon and difficult to grasp. Although its importance is generally acknowledged, impacts of (future) climate change on human activities are in many cases not taken into account explicitly, in particular when planning development projects. This is due to technical and conceptual challenges, missing financial and human resources and competing priorities. Neglecting climate change can become problematic, if a proposed activity requires specific climatological conditions under which it becomes feasible, a simple example being crop cultivation that needs certain temperature an d precipitation ranges. Comparing such ``climate corridors'' to future climate projections provides an intuitive and low-cost yet quantitative means for assessing needs for, and viability of, adaptation activities under climate change - a "poor man's approach" to climate suitability analysis. A chief advantage of this approach is its modest demand on data. Three case studies from Pakistan, Peru and Tajikistan show that climate corridor analysis can deliver robust results and can be used to efficiently communicate risks and challenges of climate change to partners and stakeholders in the developing countries.

Prestoration: Using species in restoration that will persist now and into the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, B.J.; Copeland, Stella; Munson, Seth M.; Roybal, C.M.; Wood, Troy E.

2017-01-01

Climate change presents new challenges for selecting species for restoration. If migration fails to keep pace with climate change, as models predict, the most suitable sources for restoration may not occur locally at all. To address this issue we propose a strategy of “prestoration”: utilizing species in restoration for which a site represents suitable habitat now and into the future. Using the Colorado Plateau, USA as a case study, we assess the ability of grass species currently used regionally in restoration to persist into the future using projections of ecological niche models (or climate envelope models) across a suite of climate change scenarios. We then present a technique for identifying new species that best compensate for future losses of suitable habitat by current target species. We found that the current suite of species, selected by a group of experts, is predicted to perform reasonably well in the short-term, but that losses of prestorable habitat by mid-century would approach 40%. Using an algorithm to identify additional species, we found that fewer than ten species could compensate for nearly all of the losses incurred by the current target species. This case study highlights the utility of integrating ecological niche modeling and future climate forecasts to predict the utility of species in restoring under climate change across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

2017-12-01

A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on agriculture,human health, management of urban infrastructure and water resources.

Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling

2017-06-01

Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response of the RCM climate to different climate change factors is roughly linear in that the projected changes driven by combined factors are close to the sum of projected changes due to each individual factor alone at least for long-term averages. Findings from this study are important for understanding the source(s) of uncertainties in regional climate projections and for designing innovative approaches to climate downscaling and impact assessment.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

PubMed

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-11-11

The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial.

Future of America's Forests and Rangelands: Update to the 2010 Resources Planning Act Assessment

Treesearch

Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

2016-01-01

The Update to the 2010 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment summarizes findings about the status, trends, and projected future of forests, rangelands, wildlife, biodiversity, water, outdoor recreation, and urban forests, as well as the effects of climate change upon these resources. Varying assumptions about population and economic growth, land use change, and...

Identifying outdoor thermal risk areas and evaluation of future thermal comfort concerning shading orientation in a traditional settlement.

PubMed

Huang, Kuo-Tsang; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas; Lin, Tzu-Ping

2018-06-01

The outdoor thermal environment is expected to be deteriorated under climate change. An approach of risk identification including assessment from aspects of thermal stress effect, people's exposure, and local's vulnerability were adopted to study a hot-and-humid traditional rural community located at Tainan, Taiwan. Layers of each aspect were either constructed by in-situ measurements or simulations. To evaluate the future thermal comfort changes by simulations, the prerequisite hourly climate data of three future time slices were produced. Prognostic simulation model, ENVI-met, in combination with diagnostic model, RayMan, were respectively used for identifying current spatial distribution of thermal stress and for assessing the future thermal comfort changes. High thermal risk area was identified by superimposing layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It revealed that because of the tourists' vulnerability to adapt local climate and the inflexibleness of choosing visiting time, it exhibited a high thermal stress at the Main Courtyard where its thermal comfort conditions will be deteriorated due to climate change. Furthermore, the thermal comfort conditions in various shading orientation were analyzed based on the changing climate in three future time slices, i.e. 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results show the area with shading in the East and West side is more comfort than in the North side. In hot season, shading in the West side contributes less PET increasing, especially in the afternoon period. The severest overheat problem (the physiological equivalent temperature, PET>40°C) at the Main Courtyard will increase from current 10% to 28% in 2071-2100 in terms of overheating occurrence frequency. The results of this study can be used as the guidelines for environment analysis before planning or redesign community. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

2017-04-01

The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

A Framework for Bridging Scientists, Knowledge Brokers and Local Decision Makers in State-level Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galford, G. L.; Nash, J. L.

2016-12-01

Large-scale analyses like the National Climate Assessment (NCA) contain a wealth of information critical to national and regional responses to climate change but tend to be insufficiently detailed for action at state or local levels. Many states now develop assessments (SCAs) to provide relevant, actionable information to state and local authorities. These assessments generate new or additional primary information, build networks and inform stakeholders. Based on our experience in the Vermont Climate Assessment (VCA), we present a SCA framework to engage local decision makers, using a fluid network of scientific experts and knowledge brokers to conduct subject area prioritization, data analysis, and writing. Knowledge brokers bridged the scientific and stakeholder communities, providing a two-way flow of information by capitalizing on their existing networks. Rich citizen records of climate and climate change impacts associated a human voice, a memorable story, or personal observation with a climate record, improving climate information salience. This engagement process that created salient climate information perceived as credible and legitimate by local and state decision makers. We present this framework as an effective structure for SCAs to foster interaction among scientists, knowledge brokers and stakeholders. We include a qualitative impact evaluation and lessons learned for future SCAs.

A climate game based on a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M.; Hasselmann, K.

2003-04-01

In November 2002 a special exhibition on climate issues opened in the German Museum for Science and Techniques ('Deutsches Museum') in Munich. Within this exposition we present an interactive game in which visitors control future climate policy by adopting the role of either the government, a CEO (Chief Executive Officer) of a global company or a typical private household of an industrialized country. The players endeavor to maintain a sustainable climate in the future (global goal) while pursuing their own individual welfare goals. Task of the exhibition visitor is to combine the personal interests of the actor he is adopting with the global goal. The individual goal of government is maintain economic growth while avoiding conflicts due to inter-regional or societal inequalities. The CEO seeks to maximize total profits (business earnings). The goal of households is to maximize wages and interest earnings. The evolution of the economic system and climate is governed by the decisions of the actors. Government sets economic side conditions in terms of carbon taxes, subsidies for R&D or market infusion support for climate-friendly technologies, and transfers development aid to less advanced regions. The CEOs decide how much to invest in a number of alternative investment options and in which region. Households influences the economy by their purchasing and savings decisions. The model considers four regions, three real actors (mentioned above) and two different goods (climate-adverse and a climate-friendly). We introduce four different kinds of energy (coal, oil/gas, nuclear, renewable). A World Bank handles money flows. At different points in time the actors can cooperate with other actors in order to reach the global goal Stochastic elements regarding future technology and future climate are included. A touch-screen monitor with user friendly interface is used to present animations and videos. An animated climate scientist uses a climate simulator to compute future climate scenarios in response to the actors decisions. The goal of the project is t o to give them a feeling for the problem and demonstrate that that a sustainable future climate can be combined with individual welfare goals if the right decisions are made at the right time.

A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

2007-03-01

The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

Relevance of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection Data for Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Modelling of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, R.; Vigouroux, G.; Chen, Y.; Bring, A.; Kalantari, Z.; Prieto, C.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The Baltic Sea, located in Northern Europe, is one of the world's largest body of brackish water, enclosed and surrounded by nine different countries. The magnitude of climate change may be particularly large in northern regions, and identifying its impacts on vulnerable inland waters and their runoff and nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea is an important and complex task. Exploration of such hydro-climatic impacts is needed to understand potential future changes in physical, ecological and water quality conditions in the regional coastal and marine waters. In this study, we investigate hydro-climatic changes and impacts on the Baltic Sea by synthesizing multi-model climate projection data from the CORDEX regional downscaling initiative (EURO- and Arctic- CORDEX domains, http://www.cordex.org/). We identify key hydro-climatic variable outputs of these models and assess model performance with regard to their projected temporal and spatial change behavior and impacts on different scales and coastal-marine parts, up to the whole Baltic Sea. Model spreading, robustness and impact implications for the Baltic Sea system are investigated for and through further use in simulations of coastal-marine hydrodynamics and water quality based on these key output variables and their change projections. Climate model robustness in this context is assessed by inter-model spreading analysis and observation data comparisons, while projected change implications are assessed by forcing of linked hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of the Baltic Sea based on relevant hydro-climatic outputs for inland water runoff and waterborne nutrient loading to the Baltic sea, as well as for conditions in the sea itself. This focused synthesis and analysis of hydro-climatically relevant output data of regional climate models facilitates assessment of reliability and uncertainty in projections of driver-impact changes of key importance for Baltic Sea physical, water quality and ecological conditions and their future evolution.

How can crop intra-specific biodiversity mitigate the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change? A case study on durum wheat in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaco, Eugenia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Menenti, Massimo; Bonfante, Antonello; De Lorenzi, Fracesca

2014-05-01

Climate evolution may lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitations and to reduced water availability, with constraints on the cultivation of some crops. Recently, foreseen crop responses to climate change raise a crucial question for the agricultural stakeholders: are the current production systems resilient to this change? An active debate is in progress about the definition of adaptation of agricultural systems, particularly about the integrated assessment of climate stressors, vulnerability and resilece towards the evaluation of climate impact on agricultural systems. Climate change represents a risk for rain-fed agricultural systems, where irrigations cannot compensate reductions in precipitations. The intra-specific biodiversity of crops can be a resource towards adaptation. The knowledge of the responses to environmental conditions (temperature and water availability) of different cultivars can allow to identify options for adaptation to future climate. Simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, driven by different climate scenarios, can describe present and foreseen soil water regime. The present work deals with a case-study on the adaptive capacity of durum wheat to climate change. The selected study area is a hilly region in Southern Italy (Fortore Beneventano, Campania Region). Two climate cases were studied: "reference" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was run to determine the water regime in some soil units, representative of the soil variability in the study area. From model output, the Relative Evapotranspiration Deficit (RETD) was determined as an indicator of hydrological conditions during the crop growing period for each year and climate case; and periods with higher frequencies of soil water deficits were identified. The timing of main crop development stages was calculated. The occurrence of water deficit at different development stages was thus assessed. Moreover, the yield response functions to water availability of several durum wheat cultivars were determined; cultivars' hydrologic requirements were thus defined and compared with the simulated values of RETD. The latter was evaluated against requirements for each soil unit, cultivar and year in both climate cases to assess adaptability. In the future climate scenario a significant reduction (about 80 mm) of rainfall is foreseen. The analyses of inter- and intra-annual courses of the indicator (RETD) showed higher RETD in one soil unit, which resulted less suitable for durum wheat cultivation. According to the soils' water regime and to the cultivar-specific yield responses, the adaptability of durum wheat cultivars was assessed. The difference between the two climate cases was significant; the adaptability of the cultivars was strongly influenced by the different rainfall regime and by the soil physical properties, which strongly affected the soil water balance. The case study showed how in the future climate case, for rainfed durum wheat, the intra-specific variability will allow to maintain the current crop production system. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama.

PubMed

Wang, Ruoyu; Kalin, Latif

2018-02-01

This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid (TSS) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover (LULC) change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama, USA. Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change (2016-2040). Three projected LULC maps (2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorous (TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease, mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception.

PubMed

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

2013-12-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

2013-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H; Arneth, Almut; Baranzelli, Claudia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Brown, Calum; Butler, Adam; Calvin, Katherine; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Doelman, Jonathan C; Dunford, Robert; Engström, Kerstin; Eitelberg, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harrison, Paula A; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Holzhauer, Sascha; Humpenöder, Florian; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Lavalle, Carlo; Lenton, Tim; Liu, Jiayi; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Powell, Tom; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Stehfest, Elke; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; Wise, Marshall A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2017-02-01

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A New Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.

2013-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of the new methods developed by researchers in the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for regional climate impact assessment and analysis of adaptation in agricultural systems. This approach represents a departure from approaches in the literature in several dimensions. First, the approach is based on the analysis of agricultural systems (not individual crops) and is inherently trans-disciplinary: it is based on a deep collaboration among a team of climate scientists, agricultural scientists and economists to design and implement regional integrated assessments of agricultural systems. Second, in contrast to previous approaches that have imposed future climate on models based on current socio-economic conditions, this approach combines bio-physical and economic models with a new type of pathway analysis (Representative Agricultural Pathways) to parameterize models consistent with a plausible future world in which climate change would be occurring. Third, adaptation packages for the agricultural systems in a region are designed by the research team with a level of detail that is useful to decision makers, such as research administrators and donors, who are making agricultural R&D investment decisions. The approach is illustrated with examples from AgMIP's projects currently being carried out in Africa and South Asia.

A methodological framework to assess PMP and PMF in snow-dominated watersheds under changing climate conditions - A case study of three watersheds in Québec (Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhani, Hassan; Leconte, Robert

2018-06-01

Climate change will affect precipitation and flood regimes. It is anticipated that the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) will be modified in a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify and analyze climate change influences on PMP and PMF in three watersheds with different climatic conditions across the province of Québec, Canada. Output data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was used to estimate PMP and Probable Maximum Snow Accumulation (PMSA) in future climate projections, which was then used to force the SWAT hydrological model to estimate PMF. PMP and PMF values were estimated for two time horizons each spanning 30 years: 1961-1990 (recent past) and 2041-2070 (future). PMP and PMF were separately analyzed for two seasons: summer-fall and spring. Results show that PMF in the watershed located in southern Québec would remain unchanged in the future horizon, but the trend for the watersheds located in the northeastern and northern areas of the province is an increase of up to 11%.

Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

2010-01-01

Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

Global-change vulnerability of a key plant resource, the African palms.

PubMed

Blach-Overgaard, Anne; Balslev, Henrik; Dransfield, John; Normand, Signe; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-07-27

Palms are keystone species in tropical ecosystems and provide essential ecosystem services to rural people worldwide. However, many palm species are threatened by habitat loss and over-exploitation. Furthermore, palms are sensitive to climate and thus vulnerable to future climate changes. Here, we provide a first quantitative assessment of the future risks to the African palm flora, finding that African palm species on average may experience a decline in climatic suitability in >70% of their current ranges by 2080. This suitability loss may, however, be almost halved if migration to nearby climatically suitable sites succeeds. Worryingly, 42% of the areas with 80-100% of species losing climate suitability are also characterized by high human population density (HPD). By 2080, >90% of all African palm species' ranges will likely occur at HPDs leading to increased risks of habitat loss and overexploitation. Additionally, up to 87% of all species are predicted to lose climatic suitability within current protected areas (PAs) by 2080. In summary, a major plant component of tropical ecosystems and provider of ecosystem services to rural populations will face strongly increased pressures from climate change and human populations in the near future.

Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2014-05-01

Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

PubMed

Couture, Raoul-Marie; Moe, S Jannicke; Lin, Yan; Kaste, Øyvind; Haande, Sigrid; Lyche Solheim, Anne

2018-04-15

Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2015-12-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

2015-12-01

Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

2016-01-01

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

2015-12-01

Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

Development of a Simple Framework to Assess Hydrological Extremes using Solely Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, E.; Gagnon, P.; Rousseau, A. N.

2014-12-01

Extreme flow conditions such as droughts and floods are in general the direct consequences of short- to long-term weather/climate anomalies. For example, in southern Quebec, Canada, winter and summer 7-day low flows are due to summer and fall precipitations. Which prompts the question: is it possible to assess future extreme flow conditions from meteorological/climate indices or should we rely on the classical approach of using outputs of climate models as input to a hydrological model? The objective of this study is to assess six hydrological indices describing extreme flows at the watershed scale (Qmax, Qmin;7d, Qmin;30d for two seasons: winter and summer) using local climate indices without relying on the aforementioned classical approach. To establish the relationship between climate and hydrological indices, daily precipitations, minimum and maximum temperatures from 89 climate projections are used as inputs to a distributed hydrological model. River flows are simulated at the outlet of the Yamaska and Bécancour watersheds in Québec for the 1961-2100 periods. To identify the best predictors, hydrological indices are extracted from the flow series, and climate indices are computed for different time intervals (from a day up to four years). The difference between four-month, cumulative, climatic demand (P-ETP) explains 69% of the 7-day summer low flow during the calibration process. For both watersheds, preliminary findings indicate that the selected indices explain, on average, 38 and 60% of the variability of high- and low-flow indices, respectively. Overall, the results clearly illustrate that the change in the hydrological indices can be detected through the concurrent trends in the climate indices. The use of many climate projections ensures the relationships are not simulation-dependent and shows summer events are particularly at risk with increasing high flows and decreasing low flows. The development of a simple predictive tool to assess the impact of climate change on flows represents one of the major spin-off benefits of this study and may prooveto be useful to municipalities concerned with source water and flood management. Future work includes development of additional climate indices and application of the framework to more watersheds.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Barsugli, Joseph J; Rashford, Benjamin S; Reese, Gordon C; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Wood, Andrew W; Noon, Barry R

2016-09-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Liu, De L; O'Leary, Garry J; Asseng, Senthold; Macadam, Ian; Lines-Kelly, Rebecca; Yang, Xihua; Clark, Anthony; Crean, Jason; Sides, Timothy; Xing, Hongtao; Mi, Chunrong; Yu, Qiang

2018-06-01

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041-2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO 2 emission scenario by 2081-2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland.

PubMed

Skelsey, Peter; Cooke, David E L; Lynott, James S; Lees, Alison K

2016-11-01

The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO 2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

Comparing approaches for using climate projections in assessing water resources investments for systems with multiple stakeholder groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurford, Anthony; Harou, Julien

2015-04-01

Climate change has challenged conventional methods of planning water resources infrastructure investment, relying on stationarity of time-series data. It is not clear how to best use projections of future climatic conditions. Many-objective simulation-optimisation and trade-off analysis using evolutionary algorithms has been proposed as an approach to addressing complex planning problems with multiple conflicting objectives. The search for promising assets and policies can be carried out across a range of climate projections, to identify the configurations of infrastructure investment shown by model simulation to be robust under diverse future conditions. Climate projections can be used in different ways within a simulation model to represent the range of possible future conditions and understand how optimal investments vary according to the different hydrological conditions. We compare two approaches, optimising over an ensemble of different 20-year flow and PET timeseries projections, and separately for individual future scenarios built synthetically from the original ensemble. Comparing trade-off curves and surfaces generated by the two approaches helps understand the limits and benefits of optimising under different sets of conditions. The comparison is made for the Tana Basin in Kenya, where climate change combined with multiple conflicting objectives of water management and infrastructure investment mean decision-making is particularly challenging.

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; Bosetti, V.; Borgonovo, E.; Capros, P.; Fricko, O.; Gernaat, D. E. H. J.; Guivarch, C.; Havlik, P.; Huppmann, D.; Johnson, N.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Keppo, I.; Krey, V.; Ó Broin, E.; Price, J.; van Vuuren, D. P.

2017-01-01

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.

PubMed

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-28

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate scenarios.

Modeling the impact of climate change on wild Piper nigrum (Black Pepper) in Western Ghats, India using ecological niche models.

PubMed

Sen, Sandeep; Gode, Ameya; Ramanujam, Srirama; Ravikanth, G; Aravind, N A

2016-11-01

The center of diversity of Piper nigrum L. (Black Pepper), one of the highly valued spice crops is reported to be from India. Black pepper is naturally distributed in India in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot and is the only known existing source of its wild germplasm in the world. We used ecological niche models to predict the potential distribution of wild P. nigrum in the present and two future climate change scenarios viz (A1B) and (A2A) for the year 2080. Three topographic and nine uncorrelated bioclim variables were used to develop the niche models. The environmental variables influencing the distribution of wild P. nigrum across different climate change scenarios were identified. We also assessed the direction and magnitude of the niche centroid shift and the change in niche breadth to estimate the impact of projected climate change on the distribution of P. nigrum. The study shows a niche centroid shift in the future climate scenarios. Both the projected future climate scenarios predicted a reduction in the habitat of P. nigrum in Southern Western Ghats, which harbors many wild accessions of P. nigrum. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on P. nigrum and provide useful information for designing sound germplasm conservation strategies for P. nigrum.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

2012-01-01

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. First Assessment Report Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

International Environmental Affairs, 1991

1991-01-01

Presented are policymakers' summaries of the three working groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)--science, impacts, and response strategies, the report of the IPCC Special Committee on the Participation of Developing Countries, and a discussion of international cooperation and future work. (CW)

Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

2017-04-01

Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic and drought statistic of the historical data. A multi-objective analysis using basic statistics (mean, standard deviation and asymmetry coefficient) and droughts statistics (duration, magnitude and intensity) has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to reproduce the historical series. The drought statistics have been obtained from the Standard Precipitation index (SPI) series using the Theory of Runs. This analysis allows discriminate the best RCM and the best combination of model and correction technique in the bias-correction method. We have also analyzed the possibilities of using different Stochastic Weather Generators to approximate the basic and droughts statistics of the historical series. These analyses have been performed in our case study in a lumped and in a distributed way in order to assess its sensibility to the spatial scale. The statistic of the future temperature series obtained with different ensemble options are quite homogeneous, but the precipitation shows a higher sensibility to the adopted method and spatial scale. The global increment in the mean temperature values are 31.79 %, 31.79 %, 31.03 % and 31.74 % for the distributed bias-correction, distributed delta-change, lumped bias-correction and lumped delta-change ensembles respectively and in the precipitation they are -25.48 %, -28.49 %, -26.42 % and -27.35% respectively. Acknowledgments: This research work has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02 and CORDEX projects for the data provided for this study and the R package qmap.

Utility of AIRS Retrievals for Climate Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Guyla I.; Susskind, Joel

2007-01-01

Satellites provide an ideal platform to study the Earth-atmosphere system on practically all spatial and temporal scales. Thus, one may expect that their rapidly growing datasets could provide crucial insights not only for short-term weather processes/predictions but into ongoing and future climate change processes as well. Though Earth-observing satellites have been around for decades, extracting climatically reliable information from their widely varying datasets faces rather formidable challenges. AIRS/AMSU is a state of the art infrared/microwave sounding system that was launched on the EOS Aqua platform on May 4, 2002, and has been providing operational quality measurements since September 2002. In addition to temperature and atmospheric constituent profiles, outgoing longwave radiation and basic cloud parameters are also derived from the AIRS/AMSU observations. However, so far the AIRS products have not been rigorously evaluated and/or validated on a large scale. Here we present preliminary assessments of monthly and 8-day mean AIRS "Version 4.0" retrieved products (available to the public through the DAAC at NASA/GSFC) to assess their utility for climate studies. First we present "consistency checks" by evaluating the time series of means, and "anomalies" (relative to the first 4 full years' worth of AIRS "climate statistics") of several climatically important retrieved parameters. Finally, we also present preliminary results regarding interrelationships of some of these geophysical variables, to assess to what extent they are consistent with the known physics of climate variability/change. In particular, we find at least one observed relationship which contradicts current general circulation climate (GCM) model results: the global water vapor climate feedback which is expected to be strongly positive is deduced to be slightly negative (shades of the "Lindzen effect"?). Though the current AIRS climatology covers only -4.5 years, it will hopefully extend much further into the future.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future.

PubMed

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions

PubMed Central

Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-01-01

We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort. PMID:25668390

Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Xu, Min; Pandit, Shreejana

2018-01-01

Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal. PMID:29360797

In the right place at the right time: habitat representation in protected areas of South American Nothofagus-dominated plants after a dispersal constrained climate change scenario.

PubMed

Alarcón, Diego; Cavieres, Lohengrin A

2015-01-01

In order to assess the effects of climate change in temperate rainforest plants in southern South America in terms of habitat size, representation in protected areas, considering also if the expected impacts are similar for dominant trees and understory plant species, we used niche modeling constrained by species migration on 118 plant species, considering two groups of dominant trees and two groups of understory ferns. Representation in protected areas included Chilean national protected areas, private protected areas, and priority areas planned for future reserves, with two thresholds for minimum representation at the country level: 10% and 17%. With a 10% representation threshold, national protected areas currently represent only 50% of the assessed species. Private reserves are important since they increase up to 66% the species representation level. Besides, 97% of the evaluated species may achieve the minimum representation target only if the proposed priority areas were included. With the climate change scenario representation levels slightly increase to 53%, 69%, and 99%, respectively, to the categories previously mentioned. Thus, the current location of all the representation categories is useful for overcoming climate change by 2050. Climate change impacts on habitat size and representation of dominant trees in protected areas are not applicable to understory plants, highlighting the importance of assessing these effects with a larger number of species. Although climate change will modify the habitat size of plant species in South American temperate rainforests, it will have no significant impact in terms of the number of species adequately represented in Chile, where the implementation of the proposed reserves is vital to accomplish the present and future minimum representation. Our results also show the importance of using migration dispersal constraints to develop more realistic future habitat maps from climate change predictions.

In the Right Place at the Right Time: Habitat Representation in Protected Areas of South American Nothofagus-Dominated Plants after a Dispersal Constrained Climate Change Scenario

PubMed Central

Alarcón, Diego; Cavieres, Lohengrin A.

2015-01-01

In order to assess the effects of climate change in temperate rainforest plants in southern South America in terms of habitat size, representation in protected areas, considering also if the expected impacts are similar for dominant trees and understory plant species, we used niche modeling constrained by species migration on 118 plant species, considering two groups of dominant trees and two groups of understory ferns. Representation in protected areas included Chilean national protected areas, private protected areas, and priority areas planned for future reserves, with two thresholds for minimum representation at the country level: 10% and 17%. With a 10% representation threshold, national protected areas currently represent only 50% of the assessed species. Private reserves are important since they increase up to 66% the species representation level. Besides, 97% of the evaluated species may achieve the minimum representation target only if the proposed priority areas were included. With the climate change scenario representation levels slightly increase to 53%, 69%, and 99%, respectively, to the categories previously mentioned. Thus, the current location of all the representation categories is useful for overcoming climate change by 2050. Climate change impacts on habitat size and representation of dominant trees in protected areas are not applicable to understory plants, highlighting the importance of assessing these effects with a larger number of species. Although climate change will modify the habitat size of plant species in South American temperate rainforests, it will have no significant impact in terms of the number of species adequately represented in Chile, where the implementation of the proposed reserves is vital to accomplish the present and future minimum representation. Our results also show the importance of using migration dispersal constraints to develop more realistic future habitat maps from climate change predictions. PMID:25786226

Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

2002-12-01

There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the region? The model systems used for this study are the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model; the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and PennState/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological models; the SLEUTH land use model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE); the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) models for simulating regional air quality; and exposure-risk coefficients for assessing population health impacts based on exposure to extreme heat, fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone. Two different IPCC global emission scenarios and two different regional land use growth scenarios are considered in the simulations, spanning a range of possible futures. In addition to base simulations for selected time periods in the decade 1990 - 2000, the integrated model is used to simulate future scenarios in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Predictions from both the meteorological models and the air quality models are compared against available observations for the simulations in the 1990s to establish baseline model performance. A series of sensitivity tests will address whether changes in meteorology due to global climate change, changes in regional land use, or changes in emissions have the largest impact on predicted ozone and particulate matter concentrations.

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.

PubMed

Langham, Gary M; Schuetz, Justin G; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Langham, Gary M.; Schuetz, Justin G.; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U.; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation. PMID:26333202

Future of America’s Forest and Rangelands: Forest Service 2010 Resources Planning Act Assessment

Treesearch

Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

2012-01-01

The 2010 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment summarizes findings about the status, trends, and projected future of forests, rangelands, wildlife and fish, biodiversity, water, outdoor recreation, wilderness, and urban forests, as well as the effects of climate change upon these resources. The outlook for U.S. resources is largely influenced by a set of scenarios...

Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

2010-01-01

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

Assessing the effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, S.; Zheng, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is expected to be more vulnerable in the future due to climate change coupled with rapid urbanization. Thus, protecting future groundwater resources under the impact of urbanization and climate change is necessary towards more sustainable groundwater resource development. This study is intended to shed lights on how water managers may plan for the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater quality. A new approach is presented in which the groundwater vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is employed as a constraint to urban expansion. An original form of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) and a revised LTM simulation are applied to model the urbanization. The results indicated that there would be a notable and uneven urban growth between 2010 and 2050. Future groundwater vulnerability is expected to shift significantly under future climate change scenarios. The results of the revised LTM project more urban expansion in the central regions of China, while those of the original LTM project urban expansion in throughout China, although the two projections have the same areas of expansion. The urban expansion simulated by the original LTM follows the historical trend under the drivers of socioeconomic, political and geographic factors. However, the revised LTM drives the urban expansion to the regions with relatively lower groundwater vulnerability, in contrast to the historical trend. This study demonstrates that the integration of LTM and future groundwater vulnerability in the urban planning can better protect the groundwater resource and promote more sustainable socioeconomic development. The methodology developed in this study provides water managers and city planners a useful groundwater management tool for mitigating the risks associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes in land use pattern are robust.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

PubMed

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-12-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

PubMed Central

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects. PMID:24455138

The impact of climate change on the drought variability over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirono, D. G. C.; Hennessy, K.; Mpelasoka, F.; Bathols, J.; Kent, D.

2009-04-01

Drought has significant environmental and socio-economic impacts in Australia. Government assistance for drought events is guided by the current National Drought Policy (NDP). The Commonwealth Government provides support to farmers and rural communities under the Exceptional Circumstances (EC) arrangements and other drought programs, while state and territory governments also participate in the NDP and provide support measures of their own. To be classified as an EC event, the event must be rare, that is must not have occurred more than once on average in every 20-25 years. Given the likely increase in the area of the world affected by droughts in future due to climate change (IPCC, 2007), this paper presents assessments on how climate change may affect the concept of a one in 20-25 year event into the future for Australia. As droughts can be experienced and defined in different ways, many drought indices are available to monitor and to assess drought conditions. Commonly, these indices are categorised into four types: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic. The meteorological drought indices are more widely used because they require data that are readily available and that they are relatively easy to calculate. However, meteorological drought indices based on rainfall alone fail to include the important contribution of evaporation. Here, the assessment is made using outputs of 13 global climate models (GCMs) and a meteorological drought index called the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). It incorporates the aggregated deficits between the rainfall and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. If the RDI were the sole trigger for EC declarations, then the mean projections indicate that more declarations would be likely in the future. As a comparison, results from an assessment based on other measures (temperature, rainfall, and soil wetness) will also be presented. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007 - The physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Solomon, S. et al.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, www.ipcc.ch

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

PubMed Central

Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas. PMID:26488750

Application of Multi-Model CMIP5 Analysis in Future Drought Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, M.; Luo, L.; Lang, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought influences the efficacy of numerous natural and artificial systems including species diversity, agriculture, and infrastructure. Global climate change raises concerns that extend well beyond atmospheric and hydrological disciplines - as climate changes with time, the need for system adaptation becomes apparent. Drought, as a natural phenomenon, is typically defined relative to the climate in which it occurs. Typically a 30-year reference time frame (RTF) is used to determine the severity of a drought event. This study investigates the projected future droughts over North America with different RTFs. Confidence in future hydroclimate projection is characterized by the agreement of long term (2005-2100) multi-model precipitation (P) and temperature (T) projections within the Coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Drought severity and the propensity of extreme conditions are measured by the multi-scalar, probabilistic, RTF-based Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPI considers only P while SPEI incorporates Evapotranspiration (E) via T; comparing the two reveals the role of temperature change in future hydroclimate change. Future hydroclimate conditions, hydroclimate extremity, and CMIP5 model agreement are assessed for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) in regions throughout North America for the entire year and for the boreal seasons. In addition, multiple time scales of SPI and SPEI are calculated to characterize drought at time scales ranging from short to long term. The study explores a simple, standardized method for considering adaptation in future drought assessment, which provides a novel perspective to incorporate adaptation with climate change. The result of the analysis is a multi-dimension, probabilistic summary of the hydrological (P, E) environment a natural or artificial system must adapt to over time. Studies similar to this with specified criteria (SPI/SPEI value, time scale, RCP, etc.) can provide professionals in a variety of disciplines with necessary climatic insight to develop adaptation strategies.

Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.

2014-12-01

There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning did not compensate for the increased wood removals over 90 years, leading to reduced net biome production. Analysis of land management change scenarios at fine scales is needed, and should consider other ecological values in addition to carbon.

Clustering of Global Climate Models outputs as a tool for scenario-based risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R Pereira, V.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Avila, A. M. H. D.

2016-12-01

The choice of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) future projections outputs for the scenario based risk assessment studies is a challenge for the non-climate models scientists. This study presents a method to select a range of the GCMs scenarios for regional/continental agriculture studies. The technique proposed here is based on grouping the surface air temperature (tas) anomalies in a continental /regional scale - in Brazil-South America - projected by the AR5-CMIP5-GCMs. We run the k-means cluster algorithm and the silhouette method to identify the optimal number and to group the GCMs tas outputs under the rcp 8.5. We applied the delta method to calculate the near future climate change. This method is based on the difference between the future and the baseline in a 30 year running mean periods basis. The future considered here is the 2021-2050 [2030s] and the baseline is the period of 1976-2005 (1980s). As expected, all the models projections showed increases in tas in the near future, ranging from ≅ 3.6 to 0.2 oC. The k-means clustering clearly indicates 5 groups of GCMs tas deltas. The majority of GCMs indicated an intermediate future temperature changes. There is a group of 12 GCMs that is indicating an average change of ≅ 2 oC and another group of 16 indicating ≅ 1 oC. The other two groups with 3 GCMs each indicated a most extreme tas scenario - 0.2 and 3.6 oC respectively. The results were in agreement with previous studies with the AR4 GCMs in which the Miroc5 and HADGEM ES predecessors were classified in different groups of models. The results also allowed us to gradually access the optimist - pessimist groups of 34 GCMs that is a good reference to guide the public policy demands for agriculture under climate change conditions.

The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

2017-12-01

It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

PubMed

Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporating climate science in applications of the US endangered species act for aquatic species.

PubMed

McClure, Michelle M; Alexander, Michael; Borggaard, Diane; Boughton, David; Crozier, Lisa; Griffis, Roger; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; Lindley, Steven T; Nye, Janet; Rowland, Melanie J; Seney, Erin E; Snover, Amy; Toole, Christopher; VAN Houtan, Kyle

2013-12-01

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Modeling the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.; Backus, G.; Warren, D.

2010-12-01

Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avolio, Elenio; Orlandi, Fabio; Bellecci, Carlo; Fornaciari, Marco; Federico, Stefano

2012-02-01

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree ( Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999-2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981-2000 and 2081-2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.

Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird.

PubMed

Ruegg, Kristen; Bay, Rachael A; Anderson, Eric C; Saracco, James F; Harrigan, Ryan J; Whitfield, Mary; Paxton, Eben H; Smith, Thomas B

2018-05-09

Few regions have been more severely impacted by climate change in the USA than the Desert Southwest. Here, we use ecological genomics to assess the potential for adaptation to rising global temperatures in a widespread songbird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), and find the endangered desert southwestern subspecies (E. t. extimus) most vulnerable to future climate change. Highly significant correlations between present abundance and estimates of genomic vulnerability - the mismatch between current and predicted future genotype-environment relationships - indicate small, fragmented populations of the southwestern willow flycatcher will have to adapt most to keep pace with climate change. Links between climate-associated genotypes and genes important to thermal tolerance in birds provide a potential mechanism for adaptation to temperature extremes. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of genotype-environment relationships into landscape-scale models of climate vulnerability can facilitate more precise predictions of climate impacts and help guide conservation in threatened and endangered groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.

PubMed

Moss, Richard H; Edmonds, Jae A; Hibbard, Kathy A; Manning, Martin R; Rose, Steven K; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Carter, Timothy R; Emori, Seita; Kainuma, Mikiko; Kram, Tom; Meehl, Gerald A; Mitchell, John F B; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J; Stouffer, Ronald J; Thomson, Allison M; Weyant, John P; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2010-02-11

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Assessment of climate change in Algeria from 1951 to 2098 using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeroual, Ayoub; Assani, Ali A.; Meddi, Mohamed; Alkama, Ramdane

2018-02-01

Significant changes in regional climates have been observed at the end of the twentieth century, taking place at unprecedented rates. These changes, in turn, lead to changes in global climate zones with pace and amplitude varying from one region to another. Algeria, a country characterized by climate conditions ranging from relatively wet to very dry (desert-like), has also experienced changes in its climate regions, notably in the country's wet region, which represents about 7% of its total surface area, but is home to 75% of its population. In this study, the pace of climate zone changes as it is defined by Koppen-Geiger was analyzed for the period from 1951 to 2098 using climate data from observation and regional climate simulations over Algeria. The ability of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models simulations to reproduce the current observed climate zones and their shifts was first assessed. Future changes over the whole of the twenty-first century were then estimated based on two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Analysis of the shift rate of climate zones from 1951 to 2005 found a gradual but significant expansion of the surface area of the desert zone at an approximate rate of 650 ± 160 km2/year along with the abrupt shrinking, by approximately 30%, at a rate of 1086 ± 270 km2/year, of the warm temperate climate zone surface area. According to projections for the RCP8.5 scenario, the rate of expansion of desert climate will increase in the future (twenty-first century), particularly during the period from 2045 to 2098.

The economics and ethics of aerosol geoengineering strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, Marlos; Keller, Klaus; Tuana, Nancy

2010-05-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: geoengineering climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) a potential failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) due to potential negative impacts associated with aerosol forcings. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcings. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes considerable caveats. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of future learning and is based on a simple representation of climate change impacts. We use this integrated assessment model to show three main points. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can fail the test of economic efficiency. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, deploying aerosol geoengineering may also fail an ethical test regarding issues of intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for reducing greenhouse gas emissions constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, for example due to the increased risk of future abrupt climate change. This risk transfer is in tension with the requirement of intergenerational justice that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.

Future assessment activities

Treesearch

Toral Patel-Weynand

2012-01-01

Scientific literature on the effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems has increased significantly over the past decade, providing a foundation for establishing forest-climate relationships and projecting the effects of continued warming on a wide range of forest resources and ecosystem services. In addition, certainty about the nature of some of...

Evaluation of climate variability on drought occurrence in an agricultural watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in the future hydrologic cycle due to changes in precipitation and temperature are likely to be associated with increases in hydrologic extremes. This study evaluates the impacts of climate variability on drought using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Goodwater Creek Experim...

Predicting drought in an agricultural watershed given climate variability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in the future hydrologic cycle due to changes in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) are likely to be associated with increases in hydrologic extremes. This study evaluates the impacts of climate variability on drought using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Goodwater Creek Expe...

From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear any time soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed to accommodate those potential changes. Projection uncertainties have typically been addressed by analysis of a few scenarios, chosen based on availability or to capture the extreme cases among available projections. However, by focusing on more common projections rather than the most extreme projections (using a new resampling method), new insights into current projections emerge: (1) uncertainties associated with future greenhouse-gas emissions are comparable with the differences among climate models, so that neither source of uncertainties should be neglected or underrepresented; (2) twenty-first century temperature projections spread more, overall, than do precipitation scenarios; (3) projections of extremely wet futures for California are true outliers among current projections; and (4) current projections that are warmest tend, overall, to yield a moderately drier California, while the cooler projections yield a somewhat wetter future. The resampling approach applied in this paper also provides a natural opportunity to objectively incorporate measures of model skill and the likelihoods of various emission scenarios into future assessments.

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

DOE PAGES

Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson; ...

2018-01-06

Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expendituresmore » decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.« less

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson

Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expendituresmore » decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.« less

A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

2017-09-01

Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

PubMed

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Exploring the implication of climate process uncertainties within the Earth System Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B.; Lambert, F. H.; McNeal, D.; Harris, G.; Sexton, D.; Boulton, C.; Murphy, J.

2011-12-01

Uncertainties in the magnitude of future climate change have been a focus of a great deal of research. Much of the work with General Circulation Models has focused on the atmospheric response to changes in atmospheric composition, while other processes remain outside these frameworks. Here we introduce an ensemble of new simulations, based on an Earth System configuration of HadCM3C, designed to explored uncertainties in both physical (atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol physics) and carbon cycle processes, using perturbed parameter approaches previously used to explore atmospheric uncertainty. Framed in the context of the climate response to future changes in emissions, the resultant future projections represent significantly broader uncertainty than existing concentration driven GCM assessments. The systematic nature of the ensemble design enables interactions between components to be explored. For example, we show how metrics of physical processes (such as climate sensitivity) are also influenced carbon cycle parameters. The suggestion from this work is that carbon cycle processes represent a comparable contribution to uncertainty in future climate projections as contributions from atmospheric feedbacks more conventionally explored. The broad range of climate responses explored within these ensembles, rather than representing a reason for inaction, provide information on lower likelihood but high impact changes. For example while the majority of these simulations suggest that future Amazon forest extent is resilient to the projected climate changes, a small number simulate dramatic forest dieback. This ensemble represents a framework to examine these risks, breaking them down into physical processes (such as ocean temperature drivers of rainfall change) and vegetation processes (where uncertainties point towards requirements for new observational constraints).

Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

2017-10-01

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

PubMed

Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

2018-02-13

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the results of the earlier decisions, as simulated by C-ROADS. Preliminary evaluations show that both exercises have the potential to provide powerful learning experiences. University students who played World Climate in a climate change course cited it as one of the course activities "promoting the most learning." Students' responses on anonymous surveys and open-ended questions revealed that the experience affected them at visceral, as well as intellectual levels. All of the students recommended that the exercise be continued in future years and many felt that it was the most important learning experience of the semester. Similarly, understanding of climate change and the dynamics of the climate improved for the majority of Future Climate participants, and 90% of participants stated that they were more likely to take action to address climate change on a personal level because of their experience.