Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, R. H.; Blohm, A. J.; Delgado, A.

2015-08-15

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before finalmore » conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure; (4) Vulnerability assessments can be connected to efforts to improve facility resilience to motivate participation; and (5) Efficient, scalable methods for vulnerability assessment can be developed, but additional case studies and evaluation are required.« less

Making Culverts Great Again: Modeling Road Culvert Vulnerability to Assist Prioritization of Local Infrastructure Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, D.; Walter, M. T.; Watkins, L.; Kaufman, Z.; Meyer, A.; Mahaney, M.

2016-12-01

The concurrent threats posed by climate change and aging infrastructure have become of increasing concern in recent years. In the Northeastern US, storms such as Hurricane Irene and Super Storm Sandy have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme weather events, which are projected to become more frequent under future climate change scenarios. Road culverts are one type of infrastructure that is particularly vulnerable to such threats. Culverts allow roads to safely traverse small streams or drainage ditches, and their proper design is critical to ensuring a safe and reliable transportation network. Much of the responsibility for designing and maintaining road culverts lies at the local level, but many local governments lack the resources to quantify the vulnerability of their culverts to major storms. This study contributes a model designed to assist local governments in rapidly assessing the vulnerability of large numbers of culverts and identifies common characteristics of vulnerable culverts. Model inputs include culvert geometry and location data collected by trained local field teams. The model uses custom tools created in ArcGIS and Python to determine the maximum return period storm that each culvert can safely convey under current and projected future rainfall regimes. As a demonstration, over 1000 culverts in New York State were modeled. It was found that a significant percentage of modeled culverts failed to convey the current 5 year return period storm event (deemed a failure) and this percentage increased under projected future rainfall conditions. The model results were analyzed to determine correlations between culvert characteristics and failure. Characteristics investigated included watershed size, road type (state, county or local), affluence of the surrounding area and suitability for aquatic organism passage. Results from this study can be used by local governments to quantify and characterize the vulnerability of current infrastructure and prioritize future infrastructure investment.

Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Natuzzi, Eileen S; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-08-03

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands

PubMed Central

Natuzzi, Eileen S.; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. PMID:27091867

Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

2017-03-01

This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of the infrastructure. Case studies for two Norwegian municipalities are presented for demonstration purposes, where risk posed by adverse weather and natural hazards to primary road, water supply and power networks is assessed. The application examples show that the proposed model provides a useful tool for screening of potential undesirable events, contributing to a targeted reduction of the risk.

Consideration of vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise assessments: Mobile Bay, Alabama case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gesch, Dean B.

2013-01-01

The accuracy with which coastal topography has been mapped directly affects the reliability and usefulness of elevationbased sea-level rise vulnerability assessments. Recent research has shown that the qualities of the elevation data must be well understood to properly model potential impacts. The cumulative vertical uncertainty has contributions from elevation data error, water level data uncertainties, and vertical datum and transformation uncertainties. The concepts of minimum sealevel rise increment and minimum planning timeline, important parameters for an elevation-based sea-level rise assessment, are used in recognition of the inherent vertical uncertainty of the underlying data. These concepts were applied to conduct a sea-level rise vulnerability assessment of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, region based on high-quality lidar-derived elevation data. The results that detail the area and associated resources (land cover, population, and infrastructure) vulnerable to a 1.18-m sea-level rise by the year 2100 are reported as a range of values (at the 95% confidence level) to account for the vertical uncertainty in the base data. Examination of the tabulated statistics about land cover, population, and infrastructure in the minimum and maximum vulnerable areas shows that these resources are not uniformly distributed throughout the overall vulnerable zone. The methods demonstrated in the Mobile Bay analysis provide an example of how to consider and properly account for vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise vulnerability assessments, and the advantages of doing so.

Sea level rise impacts on wastewater treatment systems along the U.S. coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hummel, M.; Berry, M.; Stacey, M. T.

2017-12-01

As sea levels rise, coastal communities will experience more frequent and persistent nuisance flooding, and some low-lying areas may be permanently inundated. Critical components of lifeline infrastructure networks in these areas are also at risk of flooding, which could cause significant service disruptions that extend beyond the flooded zone. Thus, identifying critical infrastructure components that are vulnerable to sea level rise is an important first step in developing targeted investment in protective actions and enhancing the overall resilience of coastal communities. Wastewater treatment plants are typically located at low elevations near the coastline to minimize the cost of collecting consumed water and discharging treated effluent, which makes them particularly susceptible to coastal flooding. For this analysis, we used geographic information systems to assess the vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure to various sea level rise projections at the national level. We then estimated the number of people who would lose wastewater services, which could be more than three times as high as previous predictions of the number of people at risk of direct flooding due to sea level rise. We also considered several case studies of wastewater infrastructure in mid-sized cities to determine how topography and system configuration (centralized versus distributed) impact vulnerability. Overall, this analysis highlights the widespread vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure in the U.S. and demonstrates that local disruptions to infrastructure networks may have far-ranging impacts on areas that do not experience direct flooding.

Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

2016-04-01

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

Development of a methodology for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on Florida's transportation modes and infrastructure : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

In Florida, low elevations can make transportation infrastructure in coastal and low-lying areas potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). Becuase global SLR forecasts lack precision at local or regional scales, SLR forecasts or scenarios for p...

Sea Level Rise Impacts On Infrastructure Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Mccown, A. W.; Backhaus, S.; Urban, N. M.

2015-12-01

Increase of global sea level is one of the potential consequences of climate change and represents a threat for the U.S.A coastal regions, which are highly populated and home of critical infrastructures. The potential danger caused by sea level rise may escalate if sea level rise is coupled with an increase in frequency and intensity of storms that may strike these regions. These coupled threats present a clear risk to population and critical infrastructure and are concerns for Federal, State, and particularly local response and recovery planners. Understanding the effect of sea level rise on the risk to critical infrastructure is crucial for long planning and for mitigating potential damages. In this work we quantify how infrastructure vulnerability to a range of storms changes due to an increase of sea level. Our study focuses on the Norfolk area of the U.S.A. We assess the direct damage of drinking water and wastewater facilities and the power sector caused by a distribution of synthetic hurricanes. In addition, our analysis estimates indirect consequences of these damages on population and economic activities accounting also for interdependencies across infrastructures. While projections unanimously indicate an increase in the rate of sea level rise, the scientific community does not agree on the size of this rate. Our risk assessment accounts for this uncertainty simulating a distribution of sea level rise for a specific climate scenario. Using our impact assessment results and assuming an increase of future hurricanes frequencies and intensities, we also estimate the expected benefits for critical infrastructure.

Importance of biometrics to addressing vulnerabilities of the U.S. infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, Craig M.; Hall, Nathaniel A.

2004-08-01

Human identification technologies are important threat countermeasures in minimizing select infrastructure vulnerabilities. Properly targeted countermeasures should be selected and integrated into an overall security solution based on disciplined analysis and modeling. Available data on infrastructure value, threat intelligence, and system vulnerabilities are carefully organized, analyzed and modeled. Prior to design and deployment of an effective countermeasure; the proper role and appropriateness of technology in addressing the overall set of vulnerabilities is established. Deployment of biometrics systems, as with other countermeasures, introduces potentially heightened vulnerabilities into the system. Heightened vulnerabilities may arise from both the newly introduced system complexities and an unfocused understanding of the set of vulnerabilities impacted by the new countermeasure. The countermeasure's own inherent vulnerabilities and those introduced by the system's integration with the existing system are analyzed and modeled to determine the overall vulnerability impact. The United States infrastructure is composed of government and private assets. The infrastructure is valued by their potential impact on several components: human physical safety, physical/information replacement/repair cost, potential contribution to future loss (criticality in weapons production), direct productivity output, national macro-economic output/productivity, and information integrity. These components must be considered in determining the overall impact of an infrastructure security breach. Cost/benefit analysis is then incorporated in the security technology deployment decision process. Overall security risks based on system vulnerabilities and threat intelligence determines areas of potential benefit. Biometric countermeasures are often considered when additional security at intended points of entry would minimize vulnerabilities.

Data management for geospatial vulnerability assessment of interdependencies in US power generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shih, C.Y.; Scown, C.D.; Soibelman, L.

2009-09-15

Critical infrastructures maintain our society's stability, security, and quality of life. These systems are also interdependent, which means that the disruption of one infrastructure system can significantly impact the operation of other systems. Because of the heavy reliance on electricity production, it is important to assess possible vulnerabilities. Determining the source of these vulnerabilities can provide insight for risk management and emergency response efforts. This research uses data warehousing and visualization techniques to explore the interdependencies between coal mines, rail transportation, and electric power plants. By merging geospatial and nonspatial data, we are able to model the potential impacts ofmore » a disruption to one or more mines, rail lines, or power plants, and visually display the results using a geographical information system. A scenario involving a severe earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the model when given input in the form of a potentially impacted area. This type of interactive analysis can help decision makers to understand the vulnerabilities of the coal distribution network and the potential impact it can have on electricity production.« less

Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

2015-10-01

Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (<10 725), we find that every nation experiences some form of vulnerability. Institutional vulnerability is experienced most commonly, occurring in 44 nations, and 23 countries suffer deficiencies in all four categories. Of these highly vulnerable countries, Jordan is the most vulnerable, reporting the greatest number of characteristics (5 of 19) at critical vulnerability levels, with Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

Heat Death Associations with the built environment, social vulnerability and their interactions with rising temperature.

PubMed

Eisenman, David P; Wilhalme, Holly; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Chester, Mikhail; English, Paul; Pincetl, Stephanie; Fraser, Andrew; Vangala, Sitaram; Dhaliwal, Satvinder K

2016-09-01

In an extreme heat event, people can go to air-conditioned public facilities if residential air-conditioning is not available. Residences that heat slowly may also mitigate health effects, particularly in neighborhoods with social vulnerability. We explored the contributions of social vulnerability and these infrastructures to heat mortality in Maricopa County and whether these relationships are sensitive to temperature. Using Poisson regression modeling with heat-related mortality as the outcome, we assessed the interaction of increasing temperature with social vulnerability, access to publicly available air conditioned space, home air conditioning and the thermal properties of residences. As temperatures increase, mortality from heat-related illness increases less in census tracts with more publicly accessible cooled spaces. Mortality from all internal causes of death did not have this association. Building thermal protection was not associated with mortality. Social vulnerability was still associated with mortality after adjusting for the infrastructure variables. To reduce heat-related mortality, the use of public cooled spaces might be expanded to target the most vulnerable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Methodology for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cirianni, Francis; Leonardi, Giovanni; Scopelliti, Francesco

2008-07-08

Modern society is totally dependent on a complex and articulated infrastructure network of vital importance for the existence of the urban settlements scattered on the territory. On these infrastructure systems, usually indicated with the term lifelines, are entrusted numerous services and indispensable functions of the normal urban and human activity.The systems of the lifelines represent an essential element in all the urbanised areas which are subject to seismic risk. It is important that, in these zones, they are planned according to opportune criteria based on two fundamental assumptions: a) determination of the best territorial localization, avoiding, within limits, the placesmore » of higher dangerousness; b) application of constructive technologies finalized to the reduction of the vulnerability.Therefore it is indispensable that in any modern process of seismic risk assessment the study of the networks is taken in the rightful consideration, to be integrated with the traditional analyses of the buildings.The present paper moves in this direction, dedicating particular attention to one kind of lifeline: the highway system, proposing a methodology of analysis finalized to the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the system.« less

Hierarchical Coloured Petrinet Based Healthcare Infrastructure Interdependency Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nivedita, N.; Durbha, S.

2014-11-01

To ensure a resilient Healthcare Critical Infrastructure, understanding the vulnerabilities and analysing the interdependency on other critical infrastructures is important. To model this critical infrastructure and its dependencies, Hierarchal Coloured petri net modelling approach for simulating the vulnerability of Healthcare Critical infrastructure in a disaster situation is studied.. The model enables to analyse and understand various state changes, which occur when there is a disruption or damage to any of the Critical Infrastructure, and its cascading nature. It also enables to explore optimal paths for evacuation during the disaster. The simulation environment can be used to understand and highlight various vulnerabilities of Healthcare Critical Infrastructure during a flood disaster scenario; minimize consequences; and enable timely, efficient response.

Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

PubMed

Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

2010-07-01

This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

Integrating socio-economic and infrastructural dimension to reveal hazard vulnerability of coastal districts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazumdar, Jublee; Paul, Saikat

2015-04-01

Losses of life and property due to natural hazards have intensified in the past decade, motivating an alteration of disaster management away from simple post event resettlement and rehabilitation. The degree of exposure to hazard for a homogeneous population is not entirely reliant upon nearness to the source of hazard event. Socio-economic factors and infrastructural capability play an important role in determining the vulnerability of a place. This study investigates the vulnerability of eastern coastal states of India from tropical cyclones. The record of past hundred years shows that the physical vulnerability of eastern coastal states is four times as compared to the western coastal states in terms of frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Nevertheless, these physical factors played an imperative role in determining the vulnerability of eastern coast. However, the socio-economic and infrastructural factors influence the risk of exposure exponentially. Inclusion of these indicators would provide better insight regarding the preparedness and resilience of settlements to hazard events. In this regard, the present study is an effort to develop an Integrated Vulnerability Model (IVM) based on socio-economic and infrastructural factors for the districts of eastern coastal states of India. A method is proposed for quantifying the socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability to tropical cyclone in these districts. The variables included in the study are extracted from Census of India, 2011 at district level administrative unit. In the analysis, a large number of variables are reduced to a smaller number of factors by using principal component analysis that represents the socio-economic and infrastructure vulnerability to tropical cyclone. Subsequently, the factor scores in socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SeVI) and Infrastructure Vulnerability Index (InVI) are standardized from 0 to 1, indicating the range from low to high vulnerability. The factor scores are then mapped for spatial analysis. Utilizing SeVI and InVI, the highly vulnerable districts are demonstrated that are likely to face significant challenges in coping with tropical cyclone and require strategies to address the various aspects of socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability. Moreover, this model can be incorporated not only for multi-level governance but also to integrate it with the real-time weather forecasts to identify the predictive areas of vulnerability.

Risk Management and Critical Infrastructure Protection: Assessing, Integrating, and Managing Threats, Vulnerabilities and Consequences

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-09-02

Consequences 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7...OSLGCP now administers the grants programs. 30According to the guidance, threat assessment determines the relative likelihood of a known potential...information on critical infrastructure assets. The Office of State and Local Government Coordination and Preparedness (OSLGCP) administers two grant

Risk Management and Critical Infrastructure Protection: Assessing, Integrating, and Managing Threats, Vulnerabilities and Consequences

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-04

Consequences 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7...OSLGCP). The OSLGCP now administers the grants programs. 37 According to the guidance, threat assessment determines the relative likelihood of a...Preparedness (OSLGCP) administers two grant programs that give states the opportunity to identify critical infrastructure assets: the State Homeland Security

Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

2017-04-01

1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses, production values of industries, and infrastructures. We then conduct a regression analysis to test the VCM. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the data are collected from the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan as well as the National Land Use Investigation and official census statistics. 3. Results and policy implications Results of CVAF analysis demonstrate heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability in the region, and highlight trends of long-term changes. The vulnerable areas unfold as clustered patterns and spatial analogues across regions, rather than randomly distributed. Highest cumulative vulnerability is concentrated in densely populated and downstream reaches (such as Taipei City) of the Danshui River in both time periods. When examining the VCM, it indicates that upper stream and more remote areas generally show low vulnerability, increases are observed in some areas between 1996 and 2006 due to land use intensification, industrial and infrastructure expansion. These findings suggest that land use planning should consider the socioeconomic progression and infrastructure investment factors that contribute to urban sprawl and address current as well as future urban developments vulnerable to hazard risk transmission. The cumulative vulnerability assessment, mapping methods and modelling presented here can be applied to other climate change and hazard risks to highlight priority areas for further investigation and contribute towards improving river basin management.

Geographical Assesment of Results from Preventing the Parameter Tampering in a Web Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menemencioğlu, O.; Orak, İ. M.

2017-11-01

The improving usage of internet and attained intensity of usage rate attracts the malicious in around the world. Many preventing systems are offered by researchers with different infrastructures. Very effective preventing system was proposed most recently by the researchers. The previously offered mechanism has prevented the multi-type vulnerabilities after preventing system was put into use. The attack attempts have been recorded. The researchers analysed the results geographically, discussed the obtained results and made some inference of the results. Our assessments show that the geographical findings can be used to retrieve some implication and build an infrastructure which prevents the vulnerabilities by location.

Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

2013-04-01

GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the other hand, the resilience of the individual, the household, the community, is its adaptive capacity to absorb disturbance and reorganize into a fully functioning system by anticipation, response, adaptation and recovery. A key contribution of GeoRisCA project is to assess the vulnerability to different geohazards by integrating geographic and time variability. This methodology takes into account the specificities highlighted at the regional and the local scale (urban sites). And it also considers that the vulnerability evolves with time, e.g. due to improved education, increased income, denser social networks and evolution of coping mechanisms. Using the above described methodology, one of the main objective of GeoRisCA is to developed vulnerability maps that, once associated with geohazards data, will provide decision making tools for existing preparedness and mitigation institutions.

Communicating Pacific Rim Risk: A GIS Analysis of Hazard, Vulnerability, Population, and Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yurkovich, E. S.; Howell, D. G.

2002-12-01

Exploding population and unprecedented urban development within the last century helped fuel an increase in the severity of natural disasters. Not only has the world become more populated, but people, information and commodities now travel greater distances to service larger concentrations of people. While many of the earth's natural hazards remain relatively constant, understanding the risk to increasingly interconnected and large populations requires an expanded analysis. To improve mitigation planning we propose a model that is accessible to planners and implemented with public domain data and industry standard GIS software. The model comprises 1) the potential impact of five significant natural hazards: earthquake, flood, tropical storm, tsunami and volcanic eruption assessed by a comparative index of risk, 2) population density, 3) infrastructure distribution represented by a proxy, 4) the vulnerability of the elements at risk (population density and infrastructure distribution) and 5) the connections and dependencies of our increasingly 'globalized' world, portrayed by a relative linkage index. We depict this model with the equation, Risk = f(H, E, V, I) Where H is an index normalizing the impact of five major categories of natural hazards; E is one element at risk, population or infrastructure; V is a measure of the vulnerability for of the elements at risk; and I pertains to a measure of interconnectivity of the elements at risk as a result of economic and social globalization. We propose that future risk analysis include the variable I to better define and quantify risk. Each assessment reflects different repercussions from natural disasters: losses of life or economic activity. Because population and infrastructure are distributed heterogeneously across the Pacific region, two contrasting representations of risk emerge from this study.

Security Assessment Of A Turbo-Gas Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masera, Marcelo; Fovino, Igor Nai; Leszczyna, Rafal

Critical infrastructures are exposed to new threats due to the large number of vulnerabilities and architectural weaknesses introduced by the extensive use of information and communication technologies. This paper presents the results of an exhaustive security assessment for a turbo-gas power plant.

Population vulnerability to storm surge flooding in coastal Virginia, USA.

PubMed

Liu, Hua; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

2016-07-01

This study aims to assess the vulnerability of populations to storm surge flooding in 12 coastal localities of Virginia, USA. Population vulnerability is assessed by way of 3 physical factors (elevation, slope, and storm surge category), 3 built-up components (road availability, access to hospitals, and access to shelters), and 3 household conditions (storm preparedness, financial constraints to recovering from severe weather events, and health fragility). Fuzzy analysis is used to generate maps illustrating variation in several types of population vulnerability across the region. When considering physical factors and household conditions, the most vulnerable neighborhoods to sea level rise and storm surge flooding are largely found in urban areas. However, when considering access to critical infrastructure, we find rural residents to be more vulnerable than nonrural residents. These detailed assessments can inform both local and state governments in catastrophic planning. In addition, the methodology may be generalized to assess vulnerability in other coastal corridors and communities. The originality is highlighted by evaluating socioeconomic conditions at refined scale, incorporating a broader range of human perceptions and predispositions, and employing a geoinformatics approach combining physical, built-up, and socioeconomic conditions for population vulnerability assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:500-509. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Effects on Urban Stormwater Infrastructure in City of Las Vegas, NV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakali, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2016-12-01

In the spring of 2016 the City of Las Vegas and the Southern Illinois University began collaborating on a project that seeks to assess the city's current vulnerability to drought, extreme heat, and extreme precipitation patterns, as well as the response mechanisms that are already in place within its jurisdiction. The document analyzes a series of scenarios to assess to what extent the vulnerability of four Key Planning Areas will change in the long term (30-50 years), what will be the most affected city operations, and what mechanisms the City will need to put into place to adapt to such changes. As part of the vulnerability report, this study assessed the impacts of climate change in the existing stormwater system of the Gowan watershed within City of Las Vegas, NV, by assessing projected design storms. The climate change projection for the region was evaluated using the high-resolution North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate model data. The design storms (6h 100y) were calculated using the best fitted probability distribution among twenty-seven distributions for the historic and future NARCCAP climate model projection. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to assess the performance of NARCCAP data. The projected design storms were implemented in an existing U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model developed by Clark County Regional Flood Control District (CCRFCD), Las Vegas. The simulation results showed an increase in the design storms which exceeded the capacity of existing stormwater infrastructure.

Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Spatially Localized Failures with Applications to Chinese Railway System.

PubMed

Ouyang, Min; Tian, Hui; Wang, Zhenghua; Hong, Liu; Mao, Zijun

2017-01-17

This article studies a general type of initiating events in critical infrastructures, called spatially localized failures (SLFs), which are defined as the failure of a set of infrastructure components distributed in a spatially localized area due to damage sustained, while other components outside the area do not directly fail. These failures can be regarded as a special type of intentional attack, such as bomb or explosive assault, or a generalized modeling of the impact of localized natural hazards on large-scale systems. This article introduces three SLFs models: node centered SLFs, district-based SLFs, and circle-shaped SLFs, and proposes a SLFs-induced vulnerability analysis method from three aspects: identification of critical locations, comparisons of infrastructure vulnerability to random failures, topologically localized failures and SLFs, and quantification of infrastructure information value. The proposed SLFs-induced vulnerability analysis method is finally applied to the Chinese railway system and can be also easily adapted to analyze other critical infrastructures for valuable protection suggestions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Developing measurement indices to enhance protection and resilience of critical infrastructure and key resources.

PubMed

Fisher, Ronald E; Norman, Michael

2010-07-01

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is developing indices to better assist in the risk management of critical infrastructures. The first of these indices is the Protective Measures Index - a quantitative index that measures overall protection across component categories: physical security, security management, security force, information sharing, protective measures and dependencies. The Protective Measures Index, which can also be recalculated as the Vulnerability Index, is a way to compare differing protective measures (eg fence versus security training). The second of these indices is the Resilience Index, which assesses a site's resilience and consists of three primary components: robustness, resourcefulness and recovery. The third index is the Criticality Index, which assesses the importance of a facility. The Criticality Index includes economic, human, governance and mass evacuation impacts. The Protective Measures Index, Resilience Index and Criticality Index are being developed as part of the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection initiative that DHS protective security advisers implement across the nation at critical facilities. This paper describes two core themes: determination of the vulnerability, resilience and criticality of a facility and comparison of the indices at different facilities.

Where to go? Strategic modelling of access to emergency shelters in Mozambique.

PubMed

Gall, Melanie

2004-03-01

This paper, through spatial-analysis techniques, examines the accessibility of emergency shelters for vulnerable populations, and outlines the benefits of an extended and permanently established shelter network in central Mozambique. The raster-based modelling approach considers data on land cover, locations of accommodation centres in 2000, settlements and infrastructure. The shelter analysis is a two-step process determining access for vulnerable communities first, followed by a suitability analysis for additional emergency shelter sites. The results indicate the need for both retrofitting existing infrastructure (schools, health posts) to function as shelters during an emergency, and constructing new facilities - at best multi-purpose facilities that can serve as social infrastructure and shelter. Besides assessing the current situation in terms of availability and accessibility of emergency shelters, this paper provides an example of evaluating the effectiveness of humanitarian assistance without conventional mechanisms like food tonnage and number of beneficiaries.

Surface transportation vulnerability assessment : general distribution version

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-10-25

The United States possesses an effective and efficient surface transportation infrastructure that : promotes both the well-being of its citizens as well as important economic and national security : goals. The level of security afforded this infrastr...

Utilizing Semantic Big Data for realizing a National-scale Infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chinthavali, Supriya; Shankar, Mallikarjun

Critical Infrastructure systems(CIs) such as energy, water, transportation and communication are highly interconnected and mutually dependent in complex ways. Robust modeling of CIs interconnections is crucial to identify vulnerabilities in the CIs. We present here a national-scale Infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis System (IVAS) vision leveraging Se- mantic Big Data (SBD) tools, Big Data, and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tools. We survey existing ap- proaches on vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures and discuss relevant systems and tools aligned with our vi- sion. Next, we present a generic system architecture and discuss challenges including: (1) Constructing and manag- ing a CI network-of-networks graph,more » (2) Performing analytic operations at scale, and (3) Interactive visualization of ana- lytic output to generate meaningful insights. We argue that this architecture acts as a baseline to realize a national-scale network based vulnerability analysis system.« less

Climate change risks to United States infrastructure: impacts on coastal development, roads, bridges, and urban drainage

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of infrastructure, its deployment, and its role in protecting econom...

Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies to further explore cross-hazard studies.

Critical Infrastructure Protection: How to Assess and Provide Remedy to Vulnerabilities in Telecom Hotels

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

Telecommunications and Information Administration Telecom Telecommunications Telco Telecommunications Company VBIED Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive... effect the damage to one system or sector would have on another. These concentrations of the sector’s key assets are becoming attractive targets even...critical U.S. infrastructures, such as the nation’s telephone system . Companies make it easier to control their networks from remote locations to save

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finely some attempt was done to investigate how these structures were damaged by various hazards. In other words vulnerability curves were constrained on the basis on the relation between various hazard intensities and damage data.

Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

2012-12-01

Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

Cyber threat model for tactical radio networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurdziel, Michael T.

2014-05-01

The shift to a full information-centric paradigm in the battlefield has allowed ConOps to be developed that are only possible using modern network communications systems. Securing these Tactical Networks without impacting their capabilities has been a challenge. Tactical networks with fixed infrastructure have similar vulnerabilities to their commercial counterparts (although they need to be secure against adversaries with greater capabilities, resources and motivation). However, networks with mobile infrastructure components and Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANets) have additional unique vulnerabilities that must be considered. It is useful to examine Tactical Network based ConOps and use them to construct a threat model and baseline cyber security requirements for Tactical Networks with fixed infrastructure, mobile infrastructure and/or ad hoc modes of operation. This paper will present an introduction to threat model assessment. A definition and detailed discussion of a Tactical Network threat model is also presented. Finally, the model is used to derive baseline requirements that can be used to design or evaluate a cyber security solution that can be scaled and adapted to the needs of specific deployments.

Cyber Security Threats to Safety-Critical, Space-Based Infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, C. W.; Atencia Yepez, A.

2012-01-01

Space-based systems play an important role within national critical infrastructures. They are being integrated into advanced air-traffic management applications, rail signalling systems, energy distribution software etc. Unfortunately, the end users of communications, location sensing and timing applications often fail to understand that these infrastructures are vulnerable to a wide range of security threats. The following pages focus on concerns associated with potential cyber-attacks. These are important because future attacks may invalidate many of the safety assumptions that support the provision of critical space-based services. These safety assumptions are based on standard forms of hazard analysis that ignore cyber-security considerations This is a significant limitation when, for instance, security attacks can simultaneously exploit multiple vulnerabilities in a manner that would never occur without a deliberate enemy seeking to damage space based systems and ground infrastructures. We address this concern through the development of a combined safety and security risk assessment methodology. The aim is to identify attack scenarios that justify the allocation of additional design resources so that safety barriers can be strengthened to increase our resilience against security threats.

Risk assessment of mountain infrastructure destabilization in the French Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duvillard, Pierre-Allain; Ravanel, Ludovic; Deline, Philip

2015-04-01

In the current context of imbalance of geosystems in connection with the rising air temperature for several decades, high mountain environments are especially affected by the shrinkage of glaciers and the permafrost degradation which can trigger slope movements in the rock slopes (rockfall, rock avalanches) or in superficial deposits (slides, rock glacier rupture, thermokarst). These processes generate a risk of direct destabilization for high mountain infrastructure (huts, cable-cars...) in addition to indirect risks for people and infrastructure located on the path of moving rock masses. We here focus on the direct risk of infrastructure destabilization due to permafrost degradation and/or glacier shrinkage in the French Alps. To help preventing these risks, an inventory of all the infrastructure was carried out with a GIS using different data layers among which the Alpine Permafrost Index Map and inventories of the French Alps glaciers in 2006-2009, 1967-1971 and at the end of the Little Ice Age. 1769 infrastructures have been identified in areas likely characterized by permafrost and/or possibly affected by glacier shrinkage. An index of risk of destabilization has been built to identify and to rank infrastructure at risk. This theoretical risk index includes a characterization of hazards and a diagnosis of the vulnerability. The value of hazard is dependent on passive factors (topography, lithology, geomorphological context...) and on so-considered active factors (thermal state of the permafrost, and changing constraints on slopes related to glacier shrinkage). The diagnosis of vulnerability has meanwhile been established by combining the level of potential damage to the exposed elements with their operational and financial values. The combination of hazard and vulnerability determines a degree of risk of infrastructure destabilization (from low to very high). Field work and several inventories of infrastructure damages were used to validate it. The application of this risk index for infrastructure in the French Alps indicates 999 infrastructures potentially at risk, among 0.2 % are characterized by a very high risk and 4.4 % by a high risk of destabilization. The risk unequally affects massifs: 55 % of the infrastructure at risk are in the Vanoise massif (Savoie) due to the large number of high-altitude ski resorts in this area. The Mont-Blanc massif (Haute-Savoie) includes only 6.5 % of the infrastructure at risk. Furthermore, 71 % of the exposed infrastructure are ski-lifts.

Design Document for the Technology Demonstration of the Joint Network Defence and Management System (JNDMS) Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-06

Event Interface Custom ASCII JSS Client Y (Spectrum) 3.2 8 IT Infrastructure Performance Data/Vulnerability Assessment eHealth , Spectrum NSM...monitoring of infrastructure servers.) The Concord product line. Concord products ( eHealth and Spectrum) can provide both real-time and historical...Network and Systems Management (NSM) • Unicenter Asset Management • Spectrum • eHealth • Centennial Discovery Table 12 summarizes the the role of

Operational models of infrastructure resilience.

PubMed

Alderson, David L; Brown, Gerald G; Carlyle, W Matthew

2015-04-01

We propose a definition of infrastructure resilience that is tied to the operation (or function) of an infrastructure as a system of interacting components and that can be objectively evaluated using quantitative models. Specifically, for any particular system, we use quantitative models of system operation to represent the decisions of an infrastructure operator who guides the behavior of the system as a whole, even in the presence of disruptions. Modeling infrastructure operation in this way makes it possible to systematically evaluate the consequences associated with the loss of infrastructure components, and leads to a precise notion of "operational resilience" that facilitates model verification, validation, and reproducible results. Using a simple example of a notional infrastructure, we demonstrate how to use these models for (1) assessing the operational resilience of an infrastructure system, (2) identifying critical vulnerabilities that threaten its continued function, and (3) advising policymakers on investments to improve resilience. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

2014-05-01

In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

Development of a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool for the preliminary assessment of the effects of predicted sea level and tidal change on transportation infrastructure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

In this project, researchers from the University of Florida developed a sketch planning tool that can be used to conduct statewide and regional assessments of transportation facilities potentially vulnerable to sea level change trends. Possible futur...

Cyber Security: Critical Infrastructure Controls Assessment Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-01

the threats to and 3 • Patch and configuration management • Vulnerability and incident t 2 vulnerabilities • Recommendations to reduce 4 managemen 5... Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other...unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Purpose P id i t hrov e an overv ew on assessmen

Using Integrated Earth and Social Science Data for Disaster Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, R. R.; Chen, R. S.; Yetman, G.

2016-12-01

Society faces many different risks from both natural and technological hazards. In some cases, disaster risk managers focus on only a few risks, e.g., in regions where a single hazard such as earthquakes dominate. More often, however, disaster risk managers deal with multiple hazards that pose diverse threats to life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. From the viewpoint of scientists, hazards are often studied based on traditional disciplines such as seismology, hydrology, climatology, and epidemiology. But from the viewpoint of disaster risk managers, data are needed on all hazards in a specific region and on the exposure and vulnerability of population, infrastructure, and economic resources and activity. Such managers also need to understand how hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities may interact, and human and environmental systems respond, to hazard events, as in the case of the Fukushima nuclear disaster that followed from the Sendai earthquake and tsunami. In this regard, geospatial tools that enable visualization and analysis of both Earth and social science data can support the use case of disaster risk managers who need to quickly assess where specific hazard events occur relative to population and critical infrastructure. Such information can help them assess the potential severity of actual or predicted hazard events, identify population centers or key infrastructure at risk, and visualize hazard dynamics, e.g., earthquakes and their aftershocks or the paths of severe storms. This can then inform efforts to mitigate risks across multiple hazards, including reducing exposure and vulnerability, strengthening system resiliency, improving disaster response mechanisms, and targeting mitigation resources to the highest or most critical risks. We report here on initial efforts to develop hazard mapping tools that draw on open web services and support simple spatial queries about population exposure. The NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Hazards Mapper, a web-based mapping tool, enables users to estimate population living in areas subject to flood or tornado warnings, near recent earthquakes, or around critical infrastructure. The HazPop mobile app, implemented for iOS devices, utilizes location services to support disaster risk managers working in field conditions.

Assessing Method to Identifying Water Resilience Against Natural and Climate Change Hazards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amril, Rofi; Maryono

2018-02-01

A geographic region may become vulnerable toward water resources in a variety of ways. Common issues arise when man-made infrastructure such as housing, industrial, agriculture and other spatial land use policy implementation exceeds more than desired level. Vulnerability of a region due to water resources could be interpreted as the inability of the region to sustaining economic and social activity associated to socio-economic water availability. This study assess four aspects of water resilience: water quantity, water distribution, water quality, and water requirements. Literature review then followed by interview with academic expert used as method of study. This study found that four aspect of water vulnerability mostly have been applied to asses water resource vulnerability. Each aspect have a specific characteristic and could be define more specific and detail indicator according to the local content.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranagalage, M. M.

2017-12-01

26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

2009-04-01

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders will be informed on how and how much their systems are vulnerable. It is a first level of information that has to be completed to become a real decision making tool. Indeed, we have seen that major floods cause almost always failures in the flood defense system. So potentially the city could face a flood event and managers recovery works. Knowing the vulnerability of the city, direct and indirect impacts, how can managers optimize recovery actions? Our research will focus first on proposing recovery scenarios based on the city system and second on vulnerability indicators to first limit damages during floods and to speed up recovery actions. At last, a GIS will be developed to assist stakeholders to take spatial measures to reduce city system weakness before a flood event and to help them to decide on how to optimize recovery actions after a flood event. Dealing with these two temporal scales will allow obtaining more flood resilient cities.

Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

2018-02-01

Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment and Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

companies or organizations. The connectivity and communications within and among networks are "glued" together by a set of protocols defined by the Internet ... research communities, which are modified and improved over decades of time. Those protocols are usually designed in the principle to achieve

An evaluation of security measures implemented to address physical threats to water infrastructure in the state of Mississippi.

PubMed

Barrett, Jason R; French, P Edward

2013-01-01

The events of September 11, 2001, increased and intensified domestic preparedness efforts in the United States against terrorism and other threats. The heightened focus on protecting this nation's critical infrastructure included legislation requiring implementation of extensive new security measures to better defend water supply systems against physical, chemical/biological, and cyber attacks. In response, municipal officials have implemented numerous safeguards to reduce the vulnerability of these systems to purposeful intrusions including ongoing vulnerability assessments, extensive personnel training, and highly detailed emergency response and communication plans. This study evaluates fiscal year 2010 annual compliance assessments of public water systems with security measures that were implemented by Mississippi's Department of Health as a response to federal requirements to address these potential terrorist threats to water distribution systems. The results show that 20 percent of the water systems in this state had at least one security violation on their 2010 Capacity Development Assessment, and continued perseverance from local governments is needed to enhance the resiliency and robustness of these systems against physical threats.

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... of potential critical assets; identification of hazards and consequences of concern for the facility, its surroundings, its identified critical asset(s), and its supporting infrastructure; and... determination of the relative degree of risk to the facility in terms of the expected effect on each critical...

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... of potential critical assets; identification of hazards and consequences of concern for the facility, its surroundings, its identified critical asset(s), and its supporting infrastructure; and... determination of the relative degree of risk to the facility in terms of the expected effect on each critical...

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... of potential critical assets; identification of hazards and consequences of concern for the facility, its surroundings, its identified critical asset(s), and its supporting infrastructure; and... determination of the relative degree of risk to the facility in terms of the expected effect on each critical...

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... of potential critical assets; identification of hazards and consequences of concern for the facility, its surroundings, its identified critical asset(s), and its supporting infrastructure; and... determination of the relative degree of risk to the facility in terms of the expected effect on each critical...

The Internet information infrastructure: Terrorist tool or architecture for information defense?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kadner, S.; Turpen, E.; Rees, B.

The Internet is a culmination of information age technologies and an agent of change. As with any infrastructure, dependency upon the so-called global information infrastructure creates vulnerabilities. Moreover, unlike physical infrastructures, the Internet is a multi-use technology. While information technologies, such as the Internet, can be utilized as a tool of terror, these same technologies can facilitate the implementation of solutions to mitigate the threat. In this vein, this paper analyzes the multifaceted nature of the Internet information infrastructure and argues that policymakers should concentrate on the solutions it provides rather than the vulnerabilities it creates. Minimizing risks and realizingmore » possibilities in the information age will require institutional activities that translate, exploit and convert information technologies into positive solutions. What follows is a discussion of the Internet information infrastructure as it relates to increasing vulnerabilities and positive potential. The following four applications of the Internet will be addressed: as the infrastructure for information competence; as a terrorist tool; as the terrorist`s target; and as an architecture for rapid response.« less

A situational analysis of priority disaster hazards in Uganda: findings from a hazard and vulnerability analysis.

PubMed

Mayega, R W; Wafula, M R; Musenero, M; Omale, A; Kiguli, J; Orach, G C; Kabagambe, G; Bazeyo, W

2013-06-01

Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not conducted a disaster risk analysis. Hazards and vulnerability analyses provide vital information that can be used for development of risk reduction and disaster response plans. The purpose of this study was to rank disaster hazards for Uganda, as a basis for identifying the priority hazards to guide disaster management planning. The study as conducted in Uganda, as part of a multi-country assessment. A hazard, vulnerability and capacity analysis was conducted in a focus group discussion of 7 experts representing key stakeholder agencies in disaster management in Uganda. A simple ranking method was used to rank the probability of occurance of 11 top hazards, their potential impact and the level vulnerability of people and infrastructure. In-terms of likelihood of occurance and potential impact, the top ranked disaster hazards in Uganda are: 1) Epidemics of infectious diseases, 2) Drought/famine, 3) Conflict and environmental degradation in that order. In terms of vulnerability, the top priority hazards to which people and infrastructure were vulnerable were: 1) Conflicts, 2) Epidemics, 3) Drought/famine and, 4) Environmental degradation in that order. Poverty, gender, lack of information, and lack of resilience measures were some of the factors promoting vulnerability to disasters. As Uganda develops a disaster risk reduction and response plan, it ought to prioritize epidemics of infectious diseases, drought/famine, conflics and environmental degradation as the priority disaster hazards.

A new Geo-Information Architecture for Risk Management in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baruffini, Mi.; Thuering, M.

2009-04-01

During the last decades land-use increased significantly in the Swiss (and European) mountain regions. Due to the scarceness of areas suitable for development, anthropic activities were extended into areas prone to natural hazards such as avalanches, debris flows and rockfalls (Smith 2001). Furthermore, the transalpine transport system necessity to develop effective links in an important area collides with the need to ensure the safety of travelers and the health of the population. Consequently, an increase in losses due to hazards can be observed. To mitigate these associated losses, both traditional protective measures and land-use planning policies are to be developed and implemented to optimize future investments. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. As part of the Swiss National Science Foundation Project 54 "Evaluation of the optimal resilience for vulnerable infrastructure networks - An interdisciplinary pilot study on the transalpine transportation corridors" we study the vulnerability of infrastructures due to natural hazards. The project aims to study various natural hazards (and later, even man-made) and to obtain an evaluation of the resilience according to an interdisciplinary approach, considering the possible damage by means of risk criteria and pointing out the feasibility of conceivable measures to reduce potential damage. The project consists of a geoscientific part and an application. The fist part consists in studying the dangers (natural) and related risks in terms of infrastructure vulnerability. The application considers different types of danger (logically intersected with the transport infrastructure) and compares them with fixed values to obtain a so-called deficit. As framework we adopt The Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). In this way the project develops a methodology that makes possible a risk analysis aiming to optimize the infrastructure vulnerability and therefore allows to obtain a model designed to optimize the functionality of the network infrastructure. A simulation environment, RiskBox, is developed within the open-source GIS environment GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) and a database (PostgreSQL) in order to manage a infrastructure data catalog. The targeted simulation environment includes the elements that identify the consecutive steps of risk analysis: hazard - vulnerability - risk. The initial results of the experimental case study show how useful a GIS-based system, which identify the risk of any single vulnerable element in the corridor and to assess the risk to the global system on the basis of priorities of the actors involved, can be for effective and efficient disaster response management, as explained in (ARMONIA Project 2007). In our work we wanted to highlight the complexity of the risk analysis methodology, difficulty that is amplified by many peculiarities in the mountain areas. In particular, the illustrative performed process can give an overview of the interests and the need to act to reduce vulnerability and the hazardous nature of the Gotthard corridor. We present the concept and current state of development of our project and our application to the testbed, the Alps-crossing corridor of St. Gotthard. REFERENCES ARMONIA Project 2007: Land use plans in Risky areas fro Unwise to Wise Practices - Materials 2nd conference. Politecnico di Milano. BUWAL 1999: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren - Methode, Fallbeispiele und Daten (Risk analyses for gravitational natural hazards). Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL). Umwelt-Materialen Nr. 107, 1-244. Loat, R. & Zimmermann, M. 2004 : La gestion des risques en Suisse (Risk Management in Switzerland). In: Veyret, Y., Garry, G., Meschinet de Richemont, N. & Armand Colin (eds) 2002: Colloque Arche de la Défense 22-24 octobre 2002, dans Risques naturels et aménagement en Europe, 108-120. Smith, K. 2001: Environmental hazards. Assessing the risk and reducing disaster. Third edition. London

Cyber Security Assessment Report: Adventium Labs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2007-12-31

Major control system components often have life spans of 15-20 years. Many systems in our Nation's critical infrastructure were installed before the Internet became a reality and security was a concern. Consequently, control systems are generally insecure. Security is now being included in the development of new control system devices; however, legacy control systems remain vulnerable. Most efforts to secure control systems are aimed at protecting network borers, but if an intruder gets inside the network these systems are vulnerable to a cyber attack.

People at risk - nexus critical infrastructure and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiser, Micha; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

2016-04-01

Strategic infrastructure networks include the highly complex and interconnected systems that are so vital to a city or state that any sudden disruption can result in debilitating impacts on human life, the economy and the society as a whole. Recently, various studies have applied complex network-based models to study the performance and vulnerability of infrastructure systems under various types of attacks and hazards - a major part of them is, particularly after the 9/11 incident, related to terrorism attacks. Here, vulnerability is generally defined as the performance drop of an infrastructure system under a given disruptive event. The performance can be measured by different metrics, which correspond to various levels of resilience. In this paper, we will address vulnerability and exposure of critical infrastructure in the Eastern Alps. The Federal State Tyrol is an international transport route and an essential component of the north-south transport connectivity in Europe. Any interruption of the transport flow leads to incommensurable consequences in terms of indirect losses, since the system does not feature redundant elements at comparable economic efficiency. Natural hazard processes such as floods, debris flows, rock falls and avalanches, endanger this infrastructure line, such as large flood events in 2005 or 2012, rock falls 2014, which had strong impacts to the critical infrastructure, such as disruption of the railway lines (in 2005 and 2012), highways and motorways (in 2014). The aim of this paper is to present how critical infrastructures as well as communities and societies are vulnerable and can be resilient against natural hazard risks and the relative cascading effects to different compartments (industrial, infrastructural, societal, institutional, cultural, etc.), which is the dominant by the type of hazard (avalanches, torrential flooding, debris flow, rock falls). Specific themes will be addressed in various case studies to allow cross-learning and cross-comparison of, for example rural and urban areas, and different scales. Correspondingly, scale-specific resilience indicators and metrics will be developed to tailor methods to specific needs according to the scale of assessment (micro/local and macro/regional) and to the type of infrastructure. The traditional indicators normally used in structural analysis are not sufficient to understand how events happening on the networks can have cascading consequences. Moreover, effects have multidimensional (technical, economic, organizational and human), multiscale (micro and macro) and temporal characteristics (short- to long-term incidence). These considerations will guide to different activities: 1) computation of classic structural analysis indicators on the case studies in order to obtain an identity of the transport infrastructure and; 2) development of a set of new measures of resilience. To mitigate natural hazard risk a large amount of protection measures of different typology have been constructed following inhomogeneous reliability standards. The focus of this case study will be on resilience issues and decision making in the context of a large scale sectorial approach focused on transport infrastructure network.

Risk assessment framework on time impact: Infrastructure projects in soft soil during construction stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, W. W.; Wong, K. S.; Lee, J. L.

2018-04-01

With the growth of economy and population, there is an increase in infrastructure construction projects. As such, it is unavoidable to have construction projects on soft soil. Without proper risk management plan, construction projects are vulnerable to different types of risks which will have negative impact on project’s time, cost and quality. Literature review showed that little or none of the research is focused on the risk assessment on the infrastructure project in soft soil. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a risk assessment framework in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage. This research was focused on the impact of risks on project time and internal risk factors. The research method was Analytical Hierarchy Process and the sample population was experienced industry experts who have experience in infrastructure projects. Analysis was completed and result showed that for internal factors, the five most significant risks on time element are lack of special equipment, potential contractual disputes and claims, shortage of skilled workers, delay/lack of materials supply, and insolvency of contractor/sub-contractor. Results indicated that resources risk factor play a critical role on project time frame in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage.

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and resultant loss of income produces widespread default on payments. With increased computational power and more complete inventories of exposure, Monte Carlo methods may provide more accurate estimation of severe losses and the opportunity to increase resilience of vulnerable systems and communities.

How urban system vulnerabilities to flooding could be assessed to improve resilience and adaptation in spatial planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasi, Riccardo; Viavattene, Christophe; La Loggia, Goffredo

2016-04-01

Natural hazards damage assets and infrastructure inducing disruptions to urban functions and key daily services. These disruptions may be short or long with a variable spatial scale of impact. From an urban planning perspective, measuring these disruptions and their consequences at an urban scale is fundamental in order to develop more resilient cities. Whereas the assessment of physical vulnerabilities and direct damages is commonly addressed, new methodologies for assessing the systemic vulnerability at the urban scale are required to reveal these disruptions and their consequences. Physical and systemic vulnerability should be measured in order to reflect the multifaceted fragility of cities in the face of external stress, both in terms of the natural/built environment and socio-economic sphere. Additionally, a systemic approach allows the consideration of vulnerability across different spatial scales, as impacts may vary and be transmitted across local, regional or national levels. Urban systems are spatially distributed and the nature of this can have significant effects on flood impacts. The proposed approach identifies the vulnerabilities of flooding within urban contexts, including both in terms of single elementary units (buildings, infrastructures, people, etc.) and systemic functioning (urban functions and daily life networks). Direct losses are appraised initially using conventional methodologies (e.g. depth-damage functions). This aims to both understand the spatial distribution of physical vulnerability and associated losses and, secondly, to identify the most vulnerable building types and ways to improve the physical adaptation of our cities, proposing changes to building codes, design principles and other municipal regulation tools. The subsequent systemic approach recognises the city as a collection of sub-systems or functional units (such as neighbourhoods and suburbs) providing key daily services for inhabitants (e.g. healthcare facilities, schools, administration offices, food shops, leisure and cultural services etc.) and which are interconnected through transport networks. Moreover, each city is part of broader systems - which may or may not follow administrative boundaries - and, as such, need to be connected to its wider surroundings, in a multi-scalar perspective. The systemic analysis, herein limited to residential households, evaluates the presence, the distribution among functional units and the redundancy of key daily services. As such, systemic interdependences between neighbourhoods/suburbs and municipalities emerge, highlighting how systemic vulnerability spreads beyond the flooded areas. This aims to understand which planning patterns and existing mixed-use developments are more flood resilient (thereby informing future urban development/regeneration) and which infrastructure and assets have a key role within the urban system (and have therefore to be prioritised for protection). The methodology is currently developed through an extensive use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and applied to an Italian case study (Noale municipality, Venice). Current developments and on-going issues in its application and in the data collection (including the use of aerial survey data) will be discussed in the presentation.

Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

2017-04-01

Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

NINJA: a noninvasive framework for internal computer security hardening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Thomas G.; Thomson, Steve

2004-07-01

Vulnerabilities are a growing problem in both the commercial and government sector. The latest vulnerability information compiled by CERT/CC, for the year ending Dec. 31, 2002 reported 4129 vulnerabilities representing a 100% increase over the 2001 [1] (the 2003 report has not been published at the time of this writing). It doesn"t take long to realize that the growth rate of vulnerabilities greatly exceeds the rate at which the vulnerabilities can be fixed. It also doesn"t take long to realize that our nation"s networks are growing less secure at an accelerating rate. As organizations become aware of vulnerabilities they may initiate efforts to resolve them, but quickly realize that the size of the remediation project is greater than their current resources can handle. In addition, many IT tools that suggest solutions to the problems in reality only address "some" of the vulnerabilities leaving the organization unsecured and back to square one in searching for solutions. This paper proposes an auditing framework called NINJA (acronym for Network Investigation Notification Joint Architecture) for noninvasive daily scanning/auditing based on common security vulnerabilities that repeatedly occur in a network environment. This framework is used for performing regular audits in order to harden an organizations security infrastructure. The framework is based on the results obtained by the Network Security Assessment Team (NSAT) which emulates adversarial computer network operations for US Air Force organizations. Auditing is the most time consuming factor involved in securing an organization's network infrastructure. The framework discussed in this paper uses existing scripting technologies to maintain a security hardened system at a defined level of performance as specified by the computer security audit team. Mobile agents which were under development at the time of this writing are used at a minimum to improve the noninvasiveness of our scans. In general, noninvasive scans with an adequate framework performed on a daily basis reduce the amount of security work load as well as the timeliness in performing remediation, as verified by the NINJA framework. A vulnerability assessment/auditing architecture based on mobile agent technology is proposed and examined at the end of the article as an enhancement to the current NINJA architecture.

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

2011-01-01

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

Collision and displacement vulnerability among marine birds of the California Current System associated with offshore wind energy infrastructure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Josh; Kelsey, Emily C.; Felis, Jonathan J.; Pereksta, David M.

2016-10-27

With growing climate change concerns and energy constraints, there is an increasing need for renewable energy sources within the United States and globally. Looking forward, offshore wind-energy infrastructure (OWEI) has the potential to produce a significant proportion of the power needed to reach our Nation’s renewable energy goal. Offshore wind-energy sites can capitalize open areas within Federal waters that have persistent, high winds with large energy production potential. Although there are few locations in the California Current System (CCS) where it would be acceptable to build pile-mounted wind turbines in waters less than 50 m deep, the development of technology able to support deep-water OWEI (>200 m depth) could enable wind-energy production in the CCS. As with all human-use of the marine environment, understanding the potential impacts of wind-energy infrastructure on the marine ecosystem is an integral part of offshore wind-energy research and planning. Herein, we present a comprehensive database to quantify marine bird vulnerability to potential OWEI in the CCS (see https://doi.org/10.5066/F79C6VJ0). These data were used to quantify marine bird vulnerabilities at the population level. For 81 marine bird species present in the CCS, we created three vulnerability indices: Population Vulnerability, Collision Vulnerability, and Displacement Vulnerability. Population Vulnerability was used as a scaling factor to generate two comprehensive indicies: Population Collision Vulnerability (PCV) and Population Displacement Vulnerability (PDV). Within the CCS, pelicans, terns (Forster’s [Sterna forsteri], Caspian [Hydroprogne caspia], Elegant [Thalasseus elegans], and Least Tern [Sternula antillarum]), gulls (Western [Larus occidentalis] and Bonaparte’s Gull [Chroicocephalus philadelphia]), South Polar Skua (Stercorarius maccormicki), and Brandt’s Cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) had the greatest PCV scores. Brown Pelican (Pelicanus occidentalis) had the greatest overall PCV score. Some alcids (Scripps’s Murrelet [Synthliboramphus scrippsi], Marbled Murrelet [Brachyramphus marmoratus], and Tufted Puffin [Fratercula cirrhata]), terns (Elegant and Least Lern), and loons (Yellow-billed [Gavia adamsii] and Common Loon [G. immer]) had the greatest PDV scores. Ashy Storm-Petrel (Oceanodroma homochroa) had the greatest overall PDV score. To help inform decisions that will impact seabird conservation, vulnerability assessment results can now be combined with recent marine bird at-sea distribution and abundance data for the CCS to evaluate vulnerability areas where OWEI development is being considered. Lastly, it is important to note that as new information about seabird behavior and populations in the CCS becomes available, this database can be easily updated and modified.

Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.

2013-12-01

Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.

Vulnerability assessment of a port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards: Integrating technical expert and stakeholder input

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

2002-01-01

Research suggests that the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis in the near future, posing a significant threat to the numerous ports and harbors along the coast. A collaborative, multiagency initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to these hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant, Washington Sea Grant, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center, and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy. One element of this research, planning, and outreach initiative is a natural hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness planning process that combines technical expertise with local stakeholder values and perceptions. This paper summarizes and examines one component of the process, the vulnerability assessment methodology, used in the pilot port and harbor community of Yaquina River, Oregon, as a case study of assessing vulnerability at the local level. In this community, stakeholders were most concerned with potential life loss and other nonstructural vulnerability issues, such as inadequate hazard awareness, communication, and response logistics, rather than structural issues, such as damage to specific buildings or infrastructure.

Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

Barrier island vulnerability to breaching: a case study on Dauphin Island, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Mark; Sallenger, Asbury H.

2007-01-01

Breaching of barrier islands can adversely impact society by severing infrastructure, destroying private properties, and altering water quality in back bays and estuaries. This study provides a scheme that assesses the relative vulnerability of a barrier island to breach during storms. Dauphin Island, Alabama was selected for this study because it has a well documented history of island breaches and extensive geological and geomorphic data. To assess the vulnerability of the island, we defined several variables contributing to the risk of breaching: island geology, breaching history, and island topography and geomorphology. These variables were combined to form a breaching index (BI) value for cross island computational bins, each bin every 50 m in the alongshore direction. Results suggest the eastern section of Dauphin Island has the lowest risk of breaching with the remaining portion of the island having a moderate to high risk of breaching. Two reaches in the western section of the island were found to be particularly vulnerable due primarily to their minimal cross-sectional dimensions.

Assessing post-fire values-at-risk with a new calculation tool

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Kevin D. Hyde; Peter R. Robichaud; J. Greg Jones; Louise E. Ashmun; Loeffler Dan

2007-01-01

Wildfire effects include loss of vegetative cover and changes to soil properties that may lead to secondary effects of increased runoff, erosion, flooding, sedimentation, and vulnerability to invasive weeds. These secondary effects may threaten human life and safety, cultural and ecological resources, land use, and existing infrastructure. Current Burned Area Emergency...

Integrated Framework for an Urban Climate Adaptation Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omitaomu, O.; Parish, E. S.; Nugent, P.; Mei, R.; Sylvester, L.; Ernst, K.; Absar, M.

2015-12-01

Cities have an opportunity to become more resilient to future climate change through investments made in urban infrastructure today. However, most cities lack access to credible high-resolution climate change projection information needed to assess and address potential vulnerabilities from future climate variability. Therefore, we present an integrated framework for developing an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT). Urban-CAT consists of four modules. Firstly, it provides climate projections at different spatial resolutions for quantifying urban landscape. Secondly, this projected data is combined with socio-economic data using leading and lagging indicators for assessing landscape vulnerability to climate extremes (e.g., urban flooding). Thirdly, a neighborhood scale modeling approach is presented for identifying candidate areas for adaptation strategies (e.g., green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding). Finally, all these capabilities are made available as a web-based tool to support decision-making and communication at the neighborhood and city levels. In this paper, we present some of the methods that drive each of the modules and demo some of the capabilities available to-date using the City of Knoxville in Tennessee as a case study.

Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

2016-01-01

In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

Secure Multiparty Computation for Cooperative Cyber Risk Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

the scope of data available; the more attacks that are represented in the dataset the easier it will be to determine which vulnerabilities are most...assessments by pooling their data, as a dataset that covers the infrastructure of multiple institutions would allow each of them to account for...attacks that others had experienced [4]. Sharing information to produce a broad dataset would greatly improve the ability of each organization involved to

Urban-Climate Adaptation Tool: Optimizing Green Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, J. D.; Bhaduri, B. L.

2016-12-01

Cities have an opportunity to become more resilient to future climate change and green through investments made in urban infrastructure today. However, most cities lack access to credible high-resolution climate change projection and other environmental information needed to assess and address potential vulnerabilities from future climate variability. Therefore, we present an integrated framework for developing an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT). The initial focus of Urban-CAT is to optimize the placement of green infrastructure (e.g., green roofs, porous pavements, retention basins, etc.) to be better control stormwater runoff and lower the ambient urban temperature. Urban-CAT consists of four modules. Firstly, it provides climate projections at different spatial resolutions for quantifying urban landscape. Secondly, this projected data is combined with socio-economic and other environmental data using leading and lagging indicators for assessing landscape vulnerability to climate extremes (e.g., urban flooding). Thirdly, a neighborhood scale modeling approach is presented for identifying candidate areas for adaptation strategies (e.g., green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding). Finally, all these capabilities are made available as a web-based tool to support decision-making and communication at the neighborhood and city levels. This presentation will highlight the methods that drive each of the modules, demo some of the capabilities using Knoxville Tennessee as a case study, and discuss the challenges of working with communities to incorporate climate change into their planning. Next steps on Urban-CAT is to additional capabilities to create a comprehensive climate adaptation tool, including energy, transportation, health, and other key urban services.

Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption losses.

A Framework For Analysis Of Coastal Infrastructure Vunerabilty To Global Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Veatch, W.; Marzion, R.; Moritz, H.; Moritz, H. R.

2017-12-01

Recorded impacts of global sea rise on coastal water levels have been documented over the past 100 to 150 years. In the recent 40 years the assumption of hydrologic stationarity has been recognized as invalid. New coastal infrastructure designs must recognize the paradigm shift from hydrologic stationarity to non-stationarity in coastal hydrology. A framework for the evaluation of existing coastal infrastructure is proposed to effectively assess design vulnerability. Two data sets developed from existing structures are chosen to test a proposed framework for vunerabilty to global sea level rise, with the proposed name Climate Preparedness and Resilience Register (CPRR). The CPRR framework consists of four major elements; Datum Adjustment, Coastal Water Levels, Scenario Projections and Performance Thresholds.

Vulnerability assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods using Remote Sensing and GIS in North Sikkim (India), Eastern Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Suruchi; Probha Devi, Juna; Thakur, Praveen Kumar; Rai, Suresh Chand

2016-04-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occur when glacier melt water dammed by a moraine is released in short time. Such floods may lead to disastrous events posing, therefore, a huge threat to human lives and infrastructure. A devastating GLOF in Uttarakhand, India, on 17 July 2013 has led to the loss of all villages in a stretch of 18 km downstream the lake and the loss of more than 5000 lives. The present study evaluates all 16 glacial lakes (with an area >0.1 km²) in the Thangu valley, northern Sikkim (India), eastern Himalaya, with respect to potential threats for the downstream areas. The hazard criteria for the study include slope, aspect and distance of the respective parent glacier, change in the lake area, dam characteristics and lake depth. For the most hazardous lakes, the socio-economic conditions in the downstream areas (settlements and infrastructure) are analysed regarding the impact of potential GLOFs. For the vulnerability analysis, we used various satellite products including LANDSAT, RESOUCESAT-1 and 2, RISAT-1 imageries and ASTER GDEM covering the period from 1977 to 2014. For lake mapping, we applied the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI). A Land Use Land Cover (LULC) map of the study area showing in-situ observations is serving as driving factor for the vulnerability analysis. The results of the study show that almost all evaluated glacial lakes were expanding during the study period (1977-2014). Combining the hazard criteria for the lakes, 5 of the 16 studied glacial lakes are identified as highly hazardous. In the downstream area, there are two villages with 200 inhabitants and an army camp within the zone of highest vulnerability. The identified vulnerability zones may be used by the local authorities to take caution of the threatened villages and infrastructure and for risk analysis for planned future hydropower plants.

Water Shortage: Lessons in Conservation From the Great California Drought, 1976-1977

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Legislation moving quickly through both houses of the U.S. Congress would establish a fund to promote and support research and development to increase the security of the nation's water infrastructure from source to faucet.The House of Representatives bill, "The Water Infrastructure Security and Research and Development Act" (HR 3178), would provide $12 million per year for fiscal years 2002-2006 for a number of research areas. These include assessing water supply systems for physical vulnerabilities, including biological, chemical, and radiological contamination; devising real-time systems to monitor water for contamination; determining mitigation options; and upgrading security technologies.

Doctrinal Guidelines for Quantitative Vulnerability Assessments of Infrastructure-Related Risks. Volume I

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

Services; Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste; Information Technology; Communications ; Postal and Shipping; Transportation Systems; and Government...Materials, and Waste; Information Technology; Communications ; Postal and Shipping; Transportation Systems; and Government Facilities). 4 National...recommendations for best practices, including outreach and communications ; and e) Recommend how DHS can improve its risk analyses and how those analyses can

Constructing vulnerabilty and protective measures indices for the enhanced critical infrastructure protection program.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, R. E.; Buehring, W. A.; Whitfield, R. G.

2009-10-14

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has directed its Protective Security Advisors (PSAs) to form partnerships with the owners and operators of assets most essential to the Nation's well being - a subclass of critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) - and to conduct site visits for these and other high-risk assets as part of the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection (ECIP) Program. During each such visit, the PSA documents information about the facility's current CIKR protection posture and overall security awareness. The primary goals for ECIP site visits (DHS 2009) are to: (1) inform facility owners and operators ofmore » the importance of their facilities as an identified high-priority CIKR and the need to be vigilant in light of the ever-present threat of terrorism; (2) identify protective measures currently in place at these facilities, provide comparisons of CIKR protection postures across like assets, and track the implementation of new protective measures; and (3) enhance existing relationships among facility owners and operators; DHS; and various Federal, State, local tribal, and territorial partners. PSAs conduct ECIP visits to assess overall site security; educate facility owners and operators about security; help owners and operators identify gaps and potential improvements; and promote communication and information sharing among facility owners and operators, DHS, State governments, and other security partners. Information collected during ECIP visits is used to develop metrics; conduct sector-by-sector and cross-sector vulnerability comparisons; identify security gaps and trends across CIKR sectors and subsectors; establish sector baseline security survey results; and track progress toward improving CIKR security through activities, programs, outreach, and training (Snyder 2009). The data being collected are used in a framework consistent with the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) risk criteria (DHS 2009). The NIPP framework incorporates consequence, threat, and vulnerability components and addresses all hazards. The analysis of the vulnerability data needs to be reproducible, support risk analysis, and go beyond protection. It also needs to address important security/vulnerability topics, such as physical security, cyber security, systems analysis, and dependencies and interdependencies. This report provides an overview of the approach being developed to estimate vulnerability and provide vulnerability comparisons for sectors and subsectors. the information will be used to assist DHS in analyzing existing protective measures and vulnerability at facilities, to identify potential ways to reduce vulnerabilities, and to assist in preparing sector risk estimates. The owner/operator receives an analysis of the data collected for a specific asset, showing a comparison between the facility's protection posture/vulnerability index and those of DHS sector/subsector sites visited. This comparison gives the owner/operator an indication of the asset's security strengths and weaknesses that may be contributing factors to its vulnerability and protection posture. The information provided to the owner/operator shows how the asset compares to other similar assets within the asset's sector or subsector. A 'dashboard' display is used to illustrate the results in a convenient format. The dashboard allows the owner/operator to analyze the implementation of additional protective measures and to illustrate how such actions would impact the asset's Protective Measures Index (PMI) or Vulnerability Index (VI).« less

Developing a concept of social-ecological-technological systems to characterize resilience of urban areas and infrastructure to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chester, M.; Grimm, N. B.; Redman, C.; Miller, T.; McPherson, T.; Munoz-Erickson, T.; Chandler, D. G.

2015-12-01

Climate change is widely considered one of the greatest challenges to global sustainability, with extreme events being the most immediate way that people experience this phenomenon. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to these events given their location, concentration of people, and increasingly complex and interdependent infrastructure. We are developing a conceptual framework for urban social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) that will allow researchers and practitioners to assess how infrastructure can be resilient, provide ecosystem services, improve social well being, and exploit new technologies in ways that benefit urban populations. The framework integrates the three domains of social and equity issues, environmental quality and protection, and technical/engineering aspects, to form a concept of infrastructure that occurs at the intersection of the domains. Examples show how the more common socioecological systems and socially sensitive engineering approaches that fail to incorporate the third dimension may elevate vulnerability to climate-related disaster. The SETS conceptual framework bridges currently siloed social science, environmental science, and engineering approaches to significantly advance research into the structure, function, and emergent properties of SETS. Extreme events like heat waves in Phoenix; coastal and urban flooding in the wake of superstorm Sandy and following hurricanes in Miami, FL; drought in Mexico; and urban flooding in Baltimore, Portland, San Juan PR, Syracuse, and Valdivia, Chile provide examples of the impacts of and vulnerability to extreme events that demand a new approach. The infrastructure of the future must be resilient, leverage ecosystem services, improve social well being, and exploit new technologies in ways that benefit all segments of urban populations and are appropriate to the particular urban contexts. These contexts are defined not only by the biophysical environment but also by culture and institutions of each place. We apply the SETS conceptual framework to nine western hemisphere cities in diverse settings, presenting hypotheses about the relative efficacy of strategies for resilient SETS infrastructure in cities contrasting in event type, biophysical setting, and cultural and institutional contexts.

Risk assessment of the fatality due to explosion in land mass transport infrastructure by fast transient dynamic analysis.

PubMed

Giannopoulos, G; Larcher, M; Casadei, F; Solomos, G

2010-01-15

Terrorist attacks in New York have shocked the world community showing clearly the vulnerability of air transport in such events. However, the terrorist attacks in Madrid and London showed that land mass transport infrastructure is equally vulnerable in case of similar attacks. The fact that there has not been substantial investment in the domain of risk analysis and evaluation of the possible effects due to such events in land mass transportation infrastructure leaves large room for new developments that could eventually fill this gap. In the present work using the finite element code EUROPLEXUS there has been a large effort to perform a complete study of the land mass infrastructure in case of explosion events. This study includes a train station, a metro station and a metro carriage providing thus valuable simulation data for a variety of different situations. For the analysis of these structures it has been necessary to apply a laser scanning method for the acquisition of geometrical data, to improve the simulation capabilities of EUROPLEXUS by adding failure capabilities for specific finite elements, to implement new material models (e.g. glass), and to add new modules that achieve data post-processing for the calculation of fatal and non-fatal injuries risk. The aforementioned improvements are explained in the present work with emphasis in the newly developed risk analysis features of EUROPLEXUS.

Assessing Storm Vulnerabilities and Resilience Strategies: A Scenario-Method for Engaging Stakeholders of Public/Private Maritime Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, A.; Burroughs, R.

2014-12-01

This presentation discusses a new method to assess vulnerability and resilience strategies for stakeholders of coastal-dependent transportation infrastructure, such as seaports. Much coastal infrastructure faces increasing risk to extreme events resulting from sea level rise and tropical storms. As seen after Hurricane Sandy, natural disasters result in economic costs, damages to the environment, and negative consequences on resident's quality of life. In the coming decades, tough decisions will need to be made about investment measures to protect critical infrastructure. Coastal communities will need to weigh the costs and benefits of a new storm barrier, for example, against those of retrofitting, elevating or simply doing nothing. These decisions require understanding the priorities and concerns of stakeholders. For ports, these include shippers, insurers, tenants, and ultimate consumers of the port cargo on a local and global scale, all of whom have a stake in addressing port vulnerabilities.Decision-makers in exposed coastal areas need tools to understand stakeholders concerns and perceptions of potential resilience strategies. For ports, they need answers to: 1) How will stakeholders be affected? 2) What strategies could be implemented to build resilience? 3) How effectively would the strategies mitigate stakeholder concerns? 4) What level of time and investment would strategies require? 5) Which stakeholders could/should take responsibility? Our stakeholder-based method provides answers to questions 1-3 and forms the basis for further work to address 4 and 5.Together with an expert group, we developed a pilot study for stakeholders of Rhode Island's critical energy port, the Port of Providence. Our method uses a plausible extreme storm scenario with localized visualizations and a portfolio of potential resilience strategies. We tailor a multi-criteria decision analysis tool and, through a series of workshops, we use the storm scenario, resilience strategies, and decision tool to elicit perceptions and priorities of port stakeholders. Results provide new knowledge to assist decision-makers allocate investments of time, money, and staff resources. We intend for our method to be utilized in other port communities around Rhode Island and in other coastal states.

Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies like social protection or migration, under many future scenarios.

Towards the ecotourism: a decision support model for the assessment of sustainability of mountain huts in the Alps.

PubMed

Stubelj Ars, Mojca; Bohanec, Marko

2010-12-01

This paper studies mountain hut infrastructure in the Alps as an important element of ecotourism in the Alpine region. To improve the decision-making process regarding the implementation of future infrastructure and improvement of existing infrastructure in the vulnerable natural environment of mountain ecosystems, a new decision support model has been developed. The methodology is based on qualitative multi-attribute modelling supported by the DEXi software. The integrated rule-based model is hierarchical and consists of two submodels that cover the infrastructure of the mountain huts and that of the huts' surroundings. The final goal for the designed tool is to help minimize the ecological footprint of tourists in environmentally sensitive and undeveloped mountain areas and contribute to mountain ecotourism. The model has been tested in the case study of four mountain huts in Triglav National Park in Slovenia. Study findings provide a new empirical approach to evaluating existing mountain infrastructure and predicting improvements for the future. The assessment results are of particular interest for decision makers in protected areas, such as Alpine national parks managers and administrators. In a way, this model proposes an approach to the management assessment of mountain huts with the main aim of increasing the quality of life of mountain environment visitors as well as the satisfaction of tourists who may eventually become ecotourists. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Methodological Approach for Assessing Amplified Reflection Distributed Denial of Service on the Internet of Things

PubMed Central

Costa Gondim, João José; de Oliveira Albuquerque, Robson; Clayton Alves Nascimento, Anderson; García Villalba, Luis Javier; Kim, Tai-Hoon

2016-01-01

Concerns about security on Internet of Things (IoT) cover data privacy and integrity, access control, and availability. IoT abuse in distributed denial of service attacks is a major issue, as typical IoT devices’ limited computing, communications, and power resources are prioritized in implementing functionality rather than security features. Incidents involving attacks have been reported, but without clear characterization and evaluation of threats and impacts. The main purpose of this work is to methodically assess the possible impacts of a specific class–amplified reflection distributed denial of service attacks (AR-DDoS)–against IoT. The novel approach used to empirically examine the threat represented by running the attack over a controlled environment, with IoT devices, considered the perspective of an attacker. The methodology used in tests includes that perspective, and actively prospects vulnerabilities in computer systems. This methodology defines standardized procedures for tool-independent vulnerability assessment based on strategy, and the decision flows during execution of penetration tests (pentests). After validation in different scenarios, the methodology was applied in amplified reflection distributed denial of service (AR-DDoS) attack threat assessment. Results show that, according to attack intensity, AR-DDoS saturates reflector infrastructure. Therefore, concerns about AR-DDoS are founded, but expected impact on abused IoT infrastructure and devices will be possibly as hard as on final victims. PMID:27827931

A Methodological Approach for Assessing Amplified Reflection Distributed Denial of Service on the Internet of Things.

PubMed

Costa Gondim, João José; de Oliveira Albuquerque, Robson; Clayton Alves Nascimento, Anderson; García Villalba, Luis Javier; Kim, Tai-Hoon

2016-11-04

Concerns about security on Internet of Things (IoT) cover data privacy and integrity, access control, and availability. IoT abuse in distributed denial of service attacks is a major issue, as typical IoT devices' limited computing, communications, and power resources are prioritized in implementing functionality rather than security features. Incidents involving attacks have been reported, but without clear characterization and evaluation of threats and impacts. The main purpose of this work is to methodically assess the possible impacts of a specific class-amplified reflection distributed denial of service attacks (AR-DDoS)-against IoT. The novel approach used to empirically examine the threat represented by running the attack over a controlled environment, with IoT devices, considered the perspective of an attacker. The methodology used in tests includes that perspective, and actively prospects vulnerabilities in computer systems. This methodology defines standardized procedures for tool-independent vulnerability assessment based on strategy, and the decision flows during execution of penetration tests (pentests). After validation in different scenarios, the methodology was applied in amplified reflection distributed denial of service (AR-DDoS) attack threat assessment. Results show that, according to attack intensity, AR-DDoS saturates reflector infrastructure. Therefore, concerns about AR-DDoS are founded, but expected impact on abused IoT infrastructure and devices will be possibly as hard as on final victims.

Cybersecurity Workforce Development and the Protection of Critical Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-31

communicat ions products, and limited travel for site visits and conferencing. The CSCC contains a developed web-based coordination site, computer ...the CSCC. The Best Practices Ana~yst position maintains a lisr of best practices, computer related patches. and standard operating procedures (SOP...involved in conducting vulnerability assessments of computer networks. To adequately exercise and experiment with industry standard software, it was

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM)more » is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.« less

Analysis of Stakeholder-Defined Needs in Northeast U.S. Coastal Communities to Determine Gaps in Research Informing Coastal Resilience Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molino, G. D.; Kenney, M. A.; Sutton-Grier, A.; Penn, K.

2017-12-01

The impacts of climate change on our coastlines are increasing pressure on communities, ecosystems, infrastructure, and state-to-local economies in the northeastern United States (U.S.). As a result of current or imminent risk of acute and chronic hazards, local, state and regional entities have taken steps to identify and address vulnerabilities to climate change. Decisions to increase coastal infrastructure resilience and grey, green, and cultural infrastructure solutions requires physical, natural, and social science that is useful for decision-making and effective science translation mechanisms. Despite the desire to conduct or fund science that meets the needs of communities, there has been no comprehensive analysis to determine stakeholder-defined research needs. To address this gap, this study conducts a stakeholder needs analysis in northeast U.S. coastal communities to determine gaps in information and translation processes supporting coastal resilience planning. Documents were sourced from local, state, and regional organizations in both the public and private sectors, using the northeast region defined by the third National Climate Assessment. Modeled after Dilling et al. (2015), a deductive coding schema was developed that categorized documents using specific search terms such as "Location and condition of infrastructure" and "Proactive planning". A qualitative document analysis was then executed using NVivo to formally identify patterns and themes present in stakeholder surveys, workshop proceedings, and reports. Initial stakeholder priorities centered around incorporation of climate science into planning and decision making regarding vulnerabilities of infrastructure, enhanced emergency planning and response, and communication of key information.

Water availability and vulnerability of 225 large cities in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, Julie C.; Jawitz, James W.

2012-12-01

This study presents a quantitative national assessment of urban water availability and vulnerability for 225 U.S. cities with population greater than 100,000. Here, the urban assessments account for not only renewable water flows, but also the extracted, imported, and stored water that urban systems access through constructed infrastructure. These sources represent important hydraulic components of the urban water supply, yet are typically excluded from water scarcity assessments. Results from this hydraulic-based assessment were compared to those obtained using a more conventional method that estimates scarcity solely based on local renewable flows. The inclusion of hydraulic components increased the mean availability to cities, leading to a significantly lower portion of the total U.S. population considered "at risk" for water scarcity (17%) than that obtained from the runoff method (47%). Water vulnerability was determined based on low-flow conditions, and smaller differences were found for this metric between at-risk populations using the runoff (66%) and hydraulic-based (54%) methods. The large increase in the susceptible population between the scarcity measures evaluated using the hydraulic method may better reconcile the seeming contradiction in the United States between perceptions of natural water abundance and widespread water scarcity. Additionally, urban vulnerability measures developed here were validated using a media text analysis. Vulnerability assessments that included hydraulic components were found to correlate with the frequency of urban water scarcity reports in the popular press while runoff-based measures showed no significant correlation, suggesting that hydraulic-based assessments provide better context for understanding the nature and severity of urban water scarcity issues.

Efficiency vs. Security: Information Technology Consolidations - Resilience, Complexity, and Monoculture

DTIC Science & Technology

infrastructure. This may result in vulnerabilities not typically considered by policymakers, due to concentration and homogenization of critical...Resilience of a system is counter-proportional to the product of vulnerability and spectral radius; therefore, any increase in vulnerability, spectral

MINIMIZING THE VULNERABILITY OF WATER SUPPLIES TO NATURAL AND TERRORIST THREATS

EPA Science Inventory

There is increasing concern that drinking water utilities may be vulnerable to attacks by terrorists. In the US the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection has concluded the US drinking water utilities are vulnerable to physical, cyber and biological terroris...

Interactive exploration of the vulnerability of the human infrastructure: an approach using simultaneous display of similar locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceré, Raphaël; Kaiser, Christian

2015-04-01

Currently, three quarters of the Swiss population is living in urban areas. The total population is still increasing, and urbanized space is increasing event faster. Consequently, the intensity of use has decreased but the exposure of the urban space to natural events has grown along with the cost related to the impact of hazards. In line with this fact, during the 20th century there has been a noticeable increase of natural disasters accompanied by the rapid increase of the world population, leading to higher costs. Additionally to the fact that more people are exposed to natural hazards, the value of goods globally has increased more than proportionally. Consequently, the vulnerability of urban space is, more than ever before, a major issue for socio-economic development. Here, vulnerability is defined as the potential human loss or loss of infrastructure caused by a hazardous event. It encompasses factors of urban infrastructure, population and the environment, which increase the susceptibility of a location to the impact of hazards. This paper describes a novel method for improving the interactive use of exploratory data analysis in the context of minimizing vulnerability and disaster risk by prevention or mitigation. This method is used to assess the similarity between different locations with respect to several characteristics relevant to vulnerability at different scales, allowing for automatic display of multiple locations similar to the one under investigation by an expert. Visualizing vulnerability simultaneously for several locations allows for analyzing and comparing of metric characteristics between multiple places and at different scales. The interactivity aspect is also useful for understanding vulnerability patterns and it facilitates disaster risk management and decisions on global preventive measures in urban spaces. Metrics for vulnerability assessment can be extracted from extensive geospatial datasets such as high-resolution digital elevation models (DEM) or individual building vector layers. Morphological properties can be calculated for different scales using different moving window sizes. Multi-scale measures such as fractal or lacunarity can be integrated into the analysis. Other properties such as different densities and ratios are also easy to calculate and include. Based on a rather extensive set of properties or features, a feature selection or extraction method such as Principal Component Analysis can be used to obtain a subset of relevant properties. In a second step, an unsupervised classification algorithm such as Self-Organizing Maps can be used to group similar locations together, and criteria such as the intra-group distance and geographic distribution can be used for selecting relevant locations to be displayed in an interactive data exploration interface along with a given main location. A case study for a part of Switzerland illustrates the presented approach within a working interactive tool, showing the feasibility and allowing for an investigation of the usefulness of our method.

75 FR 71721 - Pittsburgh Area Maritime Security Committee; Vacancies

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-24

...: Identifying critical port infrastructure and operations; Identifying risks (threats, vulnerabilities, and... considering consequences and vulnerabilities, how they may change over time, and what additional mitigation...

Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems.

PubMed

Thekdi, Shital A; Lambert, James H

2012-07-01

Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

PubMed

Hare, Jonathan A; Morrison, Wendy E; Nelson, Mark W; Stachura, Megan M; Teeters, Eric J; Griffis, Roger B; Alexander, Michael A; Scott, James D; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J; Chute, Antonie S; Curti, Kiersten L; Curtis, Tobey H; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F; Lucey, Sean M; McCandless, Camilla T; Milke, Lisa M; Richardson, David E; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J; McManus, M Conor; Marancik, Katrin E; Griswold, Carolyn A

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability. PMID:26839967

Rupture Directivity Effect on Seismic Vulnerability of Reinforced Concrete Bridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirazian, Shadi; Nouri, Gholamreza; Ghayamghamian, Mohamadreza

2017-04-01

Earthquake catastrophes menace humans` lives and assets. Although earthquakes are inevitable, damage is not. To remedy this situation, significant amount of research is conducted in order to assess the performance of existent man-made structures, particularly infrastructures such as bridges which play a vital role in post earthquake services. The results can be used for assessing retrofit prioritization for structures and as a basis for economic loss estimations. The research presented here determines the vulnerability of a common typical two-span reinforced concrete bridge by generating fragility curves. Near-fault ground motions are different from ordinary ground motions, often containing strong coherent dynamic long-period pulses and permanent ground displacements. Here special attention is given to this type of ground motions, and their effects on the seismic behavior of structure are compared with ordinary motions. The results show near-fault ground motions exacerbate the seismic vulnerability of a bridge by about 68% in comparison with near-field ground motions. In other words, near-source ground motions with forward directivity effect are more dangerous.

75 FR 24961 - Pittsburgh Area Maritime Security Committee; Vacancies

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-06

... critical port infrastructure and operations; Identifying risks (threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences... and vulnerabilities, how they may change over time, and what additional mitigation strategies can be...

Social determinants of health: poverty, national infrastructure and investment.

PubMed

Douthit, Nathan T; Alemu, Haimanot Kasahun

2016-06-22

This case presentation of a 19-year-old Ethiopian woman diagnosed with nasopharyngeal carcinoma reveals the barriers the patient has to medical treatment, including poverty and a lack of national infrastructure. The patient lives a life of poverty, and the outcome of her illness is a result of her being unable to overcome barriers to accessing health care due to inability to afford transport, lodging and treatment. In this case, the patient's vulnerability to disease due to her poverty is not overcome because of lack of infrastructure. The infrastructure fails to develop because of inadequate investment and other delays in building. The end result is that the patient is vulnerable to disease. Her disease process impacts her family and their contribution to Ethiopia's development. 2016 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.

A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yung-Jaan

2017-11-01

Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To analyze the biophysical vulnerability of Taiwan, hazards on eight maps from Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) are analyzed. Statistical data from the NCDR on social vulnerability are also adopted. Finally, a GIS overlaying method was used to perform the synthesized vulnerability analysis of biophysical and social vulnerability for municipalities and counties in Taiwan.

A network-based framework for assessing infrastructure resilience: a case study of the London metro system.

PubMed

Chopra, Shauhrat S; Dillon, Trent; Bilec, Melissa M; Khanna, Vikas

2016-05-01

Modern society is increasingly dependent on the stability of a complex system of interdependent infrastructure sectors. It is imperative to build resilience of large-scale infrastructures like metro systems for addressing the threat of natural disasters and man-made attacks in urban areas. Analysis is needed to ensure that these systems are capable of withstanding and containing unexpected perturbations, and develop heuristic strategies for guiding the design of more resilient networks in the future. We present a comprehensive, multi-pronged framework that analyses information on network topology, spatial organization and passenger flow to understand the resilience of the London metro system. Topology of the London metro system is not fault tolerant in terms of maintaining connectivity at the periphery of the network since it does not exhibit small-world properties. The passenger strength distribution follows a power law, suggesting that while the London metro system is robust to random failures, it is vulnerable to disruptions on a few critical stations. The analysis further identifies particular sources of structural and functional vulnerabilities that need to be mitigated for improving the resilience of the London metro network. The insights from our framework provide useful strategies to build resilience for both existing and upcoming metro systems. © 2016 The Author(s).

Collapse and pull - down analysis of high voltage electricity transmission towers subjected to cyclonic wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ammar; Arthur, Craig; Edwards, Mark

2010-06-01

Bulk electricity transmission lines are linear assets that can be very exposed to wind effects, particularly where they traverse steep topography or open coastal terrain in cyclonic regions. Interconnected nature of the lattice type towers and conductors also, present complex vulnerabilities. These relate to the direction of wind attack to the conductors and the cascading failure mechanisms in which the failure of a single tower has cascading effects on neighbouring towers. Such behaviour is exacerbated by the finely tuned nature of tower design which serves to minimize cost and reserve strength at design wind speeds. There is a clear need to better quantify the interdependent vulnerabilities of these critical infrastructure assets in the context of the severe wind hazard. This paper presents a novel methodology developed for the Critical Infrastructure Protection Modelling and Analysis (CIPMA) capability for assessing local wind speeds and the likelihood of tower failure for a range of transmission tower and conductor types. CIPMA is a program managed by the Federal Attorney-General's Department and Geoscience Australia is leading the technical development. The methodology then involves the development of heuristically derived vulnerability models that are consistent with Australian industry experience and full-scale static tower testing results, considering isolated tower loss along with three interdependent failure mechanisms to give overall likelihoods of failure.

Landslide hazards and systems analysis: A Central European perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, Martin; Damm, Bodo; Kreuzer, Thomas

2016-04-01

Part of the problem with assessing landslide hazards is to understand the variable settings in which they occur. There is growing consensus that hazard assessments require integrated approaches that take account of the coupled human-environment system. Here we provide a synthesis of societal exposure and vulnerability to landslide hazards, review innovative approaches to hazard identification, and lay a focus on hazard assessment, while presenting the results of historical case studies and a landslide time series for Germany. The findings add to a growing body of literature that recognizes societal exposure and vulnerability as a complex system of hazard interactions that evolves over time as a function of social change and development. We therefore propose to expand hazard assessments by the framework and concepts of systems analysis (e.g., Liu et al., 2007) Results so far have been promising in ways that illustrate the importance of feedbacks, thresholds, surprises, and time lags in the evolution of landslide hazard and risk. In densely populated areas of Central Europe, landslides often occur in urbanized landscapes or on engineered slopes that had been transformed or created intentionally by human activity, sometimes even centuries ago. The example of Germany enables to correlate the causes and effects of recent landslides with the historical transition of urbanization to urban sprawl, ongoing demographic change, and some chronic problems of industrialized countries today, including ageing infrastructures or rising government debts. In large parts of rural Germany, the combination of ageing infrastructures, population loss, and increasing budget deficits starts to erode historical resilience gains, which brings especially small communities to a tipping point in their efforts to risk reduction. While struggling with budget deficits and demographic change, these communities are required to maintain ageing infrastructures that are particularly vulnerable to landslides. Along with a large number of small, but costly landslide events and widespread insidious damages, the interplay of these societal trends determines landslide hazard and risk in Germany or elsewhere in Central Europe (e.g., Houlihan, 1994; Klose et al., 2015). The case studies presented here help to better understand human-environment interactions in the hazard context. Although there has been substantial progress in assessing landslide hazards, integrated approaches with an interdisciplinary focus are still exceptional. The scope of historical datasets available for hazard assessments, however, covers the whole range of natural and social systems interacting with hazards, their influences on overall system vulnerability, and the feedbacks, time lags, and couplings among these systems. In combination with methods from the natural and social sciences, systems analysis supports hazard assessments across disciplinary boundaries to take a broader look at landslide hazards as is usually done. References Houlihan, B., 1994. Europe's ageing infrastructure: Politics, finance and the environment. Utilities Policy 4, 243-252. Liu, J., Dietz, T., Carpenter, S.R., Alberti, M., Folke, C., Moran, E., Pell, A.N., Deadman, P., Kratz, T., Lubchenco, J., Ostrom, E., Ouyang, Z., Provencher, W., Redman, C.L., Schneider, S.H., Taylor, W.W., 2007. Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems. Science 317, 1513-1516. Klose, M., Damm, B., Maurischat, P., 2015. Landslide impacts in Germany: A historical and socioeconomic perspective. Landslides, doi:10.1007/s10346-015-0643-9.

Exploring spatial patterns of vulnerability for diverse biodiversity descriptors in regional conservation planning.

PubMed

Vimal, Ruppert; Pluvinet, Pascal; Sacca, Céline; Mazagol, Pierre-Olivier; Etlicher, Bernard; Thompson, John D

2012-03-01

In this study, we developed a multi-criteria assessment of spatial variability of the vulnerability of three different biodiversity descriptors: sites of high conservation interest by virtue of the presence of rare or remarkable species, extensive areas of high ecological integrity, and landscape diversity in grid cells across an entire region. We assessed vulnerability in relation to (a) direct threats in and around sites to a distance of 2 km associated with intensive agriculture, building and road infrastructure and (b) indirect effects of human population density on a wider scale (50 km). The different combinations of biodiversity and threat indicators allowed us to set differential priorities for biodiversity conservation and assess their spatial variation. For example, with this method we identified sites and grid cells which combined high biodiversity with either high threat values or low threat values for the three different biodiversity indicators. In these two classes the priorities for conservation planning will be different, reduce threat values in the former and restrain any increase in the latter. We also identified low priority sites (low biodiversity with either high or low threats). This procedure thus allows for the integration of a spatial ranking of vulnerability into priority setting for regional conservation planning. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Beyond bouncing back : a roundtable on critical transportation resilience

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

Global transportation infrastructure today is confronted with significant vulnerabilities an aging : infrastructure; a growing concentration of populations at high-density coastal urban areas; increasing : interdependencies among the nation's phy...

Using Climate Information for Disaster Risk Identification in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubair, L.

2004-12-01

We have engaged in a concerted attempt to undertake research and apply earth science information for development in Sri Lanka, with a focus on climate sciences. Here, we provide details of an ongoing attempt to harness science for disaster identification as a prelude to informed disaster management. Natural disasters not only result in death and destruction but also undermine decades of development gains as highlighted by recent examples from Sri Lanka. First, in May 2003, flooding and landslides in the South-West led to 260 deaths, damage to 120,000 homes and destruction of schools, infrastructure and agricultural land. Second, on December 26, 2000, a cyclone in the North-Central region left 8 dead, 55,000 displaced, with severe damage to fishing, agriculture, infrastructure and cultural sites. Third, an extended island-wide drought in 2001 and 2002 resulted in a 2% drop in GDP. In the aftermath of these disasters, improved disaster management has been deemed to be urgent by the Government of Sri Lanka. In the past the primary policy response to disasters was to provide emergency relief. It is increasingly recognized that appropriate disaster risk management, including risk assessment, preventive measures to reduce losses and improved preparedness, can help reduce death, destruction and socio-economic disruption. The overwhelming majority of hazards in Sri Lanka - droughts, floods, cyclones and landslides -have hydro-meteorological antecedents. Little systematic advantage has, however, been taken of hydro-meteorological information and advances in climate prediction for disaster management. Disaster risks are created by the interaction between hazard events and vulnerabilities of communities, infrastructure and economically important activities. A comprehensive disaster risk management system encompasses risk identification, risk reduction and risk transfer. We undertook an identification of risks for Sri Lanka at fine scale with the support of the Global Disaster Hotspots project of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. We developed tools that translate meteorological, environmental and socio-economic exposure and vulnerability information into assessments of relevant hazard related disaster risk at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. We also developed high-resolution predictive capabilities for assessing seasonal hazard event. We found that useful hazard risk and vulnerability analysis can be carried out with the type of data that is available in Sri Lanka with sufficiently fine scale as to be useful for national level planning and action. Also, hydro-meteorological information was essential to estimate hazard risks. This analysis brought out a distinct seasonality to drought, floods, landslides and cyclone hazards in Sri Lanka. This work provides a foundation for systematic disaster management that shall manage risks through measures such as hazard warnings, scenario-based relief identification and planning, strategic river basin management, risk mapping and land use zoning, standards for construction and infrastructure. The fostering of research and application capacity in the vulnerable community leads to the appropriate and sustainable use of earth science information. This work contributes to the mitigation of risk of vulnerable communities and provides an example of the harnessing of geosciences for poverty alleviation and improvement of human well-being. Note: The contributions of Vidhura Ralapanawe, Upamala Tennakoon, Ruvini Perera, Maxx Dilley, Bob Chen and the Hotspots team are gratefully acknowledged.

Cyberwarfare on the Electricity Infrastructure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murarka, N.; Ramesh, V.C.

2000-03-20

The report analyzes the possibility of cyberwarfare on the electricity infrastructure. The ongoing deregulation of the electricity industry makes the power grid all the more vulnerable to cyber attacks. The report models the power system information system components, models potential threats and protective measures. It therefore offers a framework for infrastructure protection.

A Framework and Metric for resilience concept in water infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamouz, M.; Olyaei, M.

2017-12-01

The collaborators of water industries are looking for ways and means to bring resilience into our water infrastructure systems. The key to this conviction is to develop a shared vision among the engineers, builders and decision makers of our water executive branch and policy makers, utilities, community leaders, players, end users and other stakeholders of our urban environment. Among water infrastructures, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) have a significant role on urban systems' serviceability. These facilities, especially when located in coastal regions, are vulnerable to heavy rain, surface runoff, storm surges and coastal flooding. Flooding can cause overflows from treatment facilities into the natural water bodies and result in environmental predicament of significant proportions. In order to minimize vulnerability to flood, a better understanding of flood risk must be realized. Vulnerability to floods frequency and intensity is increasing by external forcing such as climate change, as well as increased interdependencies in urban systems. Therefore, to quantify the extent of efforts for flood risk management, a unified index is needed for evaluating resiliency of infrastructure. Resiliency is a key concept in understanding vulnerability in dealing with flood. New York City based on its geographic location, its urbanized nature, densely populated area, interconnected water bodies and history of the past flooding events is extremely vulnerable to flood and was selected as the case study. In this study, a framework is developed to evaluate resiliency of WWTPs. An analysis of the current understanding of vulnerability is performed and a new perspective utilizing different components of resiliency including resourcefulness, robustness, rapidity and redundancy is presented. To quantify resiliency and rank the wastewater treatment plants in terms of how resilient they are, an index is developed using Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique. Moreover, Improvement of WWTPs' performance is investigated by allocating financial resources to attain a desirable level of resiliency. The result of this study shows the significant value of quantifying and improving flood resiliency of WWTPs that could be used for other water infrastructure and in planning of investment strategies for a region

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.

Drought vulnerability assessment for prioritising drought warning implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Mwangi, Emmah; Barbosa, Paulo; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Werner, Micha

2014-05-01

Drought warning provides a potentially efficient approach to mitigation of drought impacts, and should be targeted at areas most vulnerable to being adversely impacted. Assessing drought vulnerability is, however, complex and needs to consider susceptibility to drought impact as well as the capacity to cope with drought. In this paper a Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is proposed that considers four primary components that reflect the capacity of society to adapt to drought; the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the available infrastructure and technology. The DVI is established as a weighted combination of these four components, each a composite of selected indicators. Constituent indicators are calculated based on national and/or regional census data and statistics, and while the resulting DVI should not be considered an absolute measure of drought vulnerability it does provide for a prioritisation of areas that can be used to target drought warning efforts. Sensitivity analysis of weights applied show the established DVI to be robust. Through the DVI the development of drought forecasting and warning can be targeted at the most vulnerable areas. The proposed DVI is applied at both the continental scale in Africa to assess drought vulnerability of the different nations across Africa, and at the national level in Kenya, allowing for prioritisation of the counties within Kenya to drought vulnerability. Results show the relative vulnerability of countries and counties vulnerable to drought. At the continental scale, Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad are found to be the countries most vulnerable to drought. At the national level, the relative vulnerability of the counties across Kenya is found, with counties in the North-East of Kenya having the highest values of DVI. At the country level results were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database, showing a good agreement between recorded drought impact and the established DVI classes. Kenya counties most vulnerable to drought are primarily located in the North-East of the country, showing a reasonable agreement with the spatial distribution of impacts of the 2010/2011 drought, despite the drought itself being more widespread.

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence.

PubMed

Korkali, Mert; Veneman, Jason G; Tivnan, Brian F; Bagrow, James P; Hines, Paul D H

2017-03-20

Increased interconnection between critical infrastructure networks, such as electric power and communications systems, has important implications for infrastructure reliability and security. Others have shown that increased coupling between networks that are vulnerable to internetwork cascading failures can increase vulnerability. However, the mechanisms of cascading in these models differ from those in real systems and such models disregard new functions enabled by coupling, such as intelligent control during a cascade. This paper compares the robustness of simple topological network models to models that more accurately reflect the dynamics of cascading in a particular case of coupled infrastructures. First, we compare a topological contagion model to a power grid model. Second, we compare a percolation model of internetwork cascading to three models of interdependent power-communication systems. In both comparisons, the more detailed models suggest substantially different conclusions, relative to the simpler topological models. In all but the most extreme case, our model of a "smart" power network coupled to a communication system suggests that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability, in contrast to the percolation model. Together, these results suggest that robustness can be enhanced by interconnecting networks with complementary capabilities if modes of internetwork failure propagation are constrained.

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korkali, Mert; Veneman, Jason G.; Tivnan, Brian F.; Bagrow, James P.; Hines, Paul D. H.

2017-03-01

Increased interconnection between critical infrastructure networks, such as electric power and communications systems, has important implications for infrastructure reliability and security. Others have shown that increased coupling between networks that are vulnerable to internetwork cascading failures can increase vulnerability. However, the mechanisms of cascading in these models differ from those in real systems and such models disregard new functions enabled by coupling, such as intelligent control during a cascade. This paper compares the robustness of simple topological network models to models that more accurately reflect the dynamics of cascading in a particular case of coupled infrastructures. First, we compare a topological contagion model to a power grid model. Second, we compare a percolation model of internetwork cascading to three models of interdependent power-communication systems. In both comparisons, the more detailed models suggest substantially different conclusions, relative to the simpler topological models. In all but the most extreme case, our model of a “smart” power network coupled to a communication system suggests that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability, in contrast to the percolation model. Together, these results suggest that robustness can be enhanced by interconnecting networks with complementary capabilities if modes of internetwork failure propagation are constrained.

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence

PubMed Central

Korkali, Mert; Veneman, Jason G.; Tivnan, Brian F.; Bagrow, James P.; Hines, Paul D. H.

2017-01-01

Increased interconnection between critical infrastructure networks, such as electric power and communications systems, has important implications for infrastructure reliability and security. Others have shown that increased coupling between networks that are vulnerable to internetwork cascading failures can increase vulnerability. However, the mechanisms of cascading in these models differ from those in real systems and such models disregard new functions enabled by coupling, such as intelligent control during a cascade. This paper compares the robustness of simple topological network models to models that more accurately reflect the dynamics of cascading in a particular case of coupled infrastructures. First, we compare a topological contagion model to a power grid model. Second, we compare a percolation model of internetwork cascading to three models of interdependent power-communication systems. In both comparisons, the more detailed models suggest substantially different conclusions, relative to the simpler topological models. In all but the most extreme case, our model of a “smart” power network coupled to a communication system suggests that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability, in contrast to the percolation model. Together, these results suggest that robustness can be enhanced by interconnecting networks with complementary capabilities if modes of internetwork failure propagation are constrained. PMID:28317835

Critical Infrastructure Protection: EMP Impacts on the U.S. Electric Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boston, Edwin J., Jr.

The purpose of this research is to identify the United States electric grid infrastructure systems vulnerabilities to electromagnetic pulse attacks and the cyber-based impacts of those vulnerabilities to the electric grid. Additionally, the research identifies multiple defensive strategies designed to harden the electric grid against electromagnetic pulse attack that include prevention, mitigation and recovery postures. Research results confirm the importance of the electric grid to the United States critical infrastructures system and that an electromagnetic pulse attack against the electric grid could result in electric grid degradation, critical infrastructure(s) damage and the potential for societal collapse. The conclusions of this research indicate that while an electromagnetic pulse attack against the United States electric grid could have catastrophic impacts on American society, there are currently many defensive strategies under consideration designed to prevent, mitigate and or recover from an electromagnetic pulse attack. However, additional research is essential to further identify future target hardening opportunities, efficient implementation strategies and funding resources.

Quantitative Assessment of Transportation Network Vulnerability with Dynamic Traffic Simulation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shekar, Venkateswaran; Fiondella, Lance; Chatterjee, Samrat

Transportation networks are critical to the social and economic function of nations. Given the continuing increase in the populations of cities throughout the world, the criticality of transportation infrastructure is expected to increase. Thus, it is ever more important to mitigate congestion as well as to assess the impact disruptions would have on individuals who depend on transportation for their work and livelihood. Moreover, several government organizations are responsible for ensuring transportation networks are available despite the constant threat of natural disasters and terrorist activities. Most of the previous transportation network vulnerability research has been performed in the context ofmore » static traffic models, many of which are formulated as traditional optimization problems. However, transportation networks are dynamic because their usage varies over time. Thus, more appropriate methods to characterize the vulnerability of transportation networks should consider their dynamic properties. This paper presents a quantitative approach to assess the vulnerability of a transportation network to disruptions with methods from traffic simulation. Our approach can prioritize the critical links over time and is generalizable to the case where both link and node disruptions are of concern. We illustrate the approach through a series of examples. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides quantitative insight into the time varying criticality of links. Such an approach could be used as the objective function of less traditional optimization methods that use simulation and other techniques to evaluate the relative utility of a particular network defense to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience.« less

Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Rizzi, J.; Marcomini, A.

2012-07-01

Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA) methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems) in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection), which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion). Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) are fully described in the paper.

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District.

PubMed

Houghton, Adele; Austin, Jessica; Beerman, Abby; Horton, Clayton

2017-01-01

Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as "high vulnerability." Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment.

Increasing impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forzieri, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc; Silva, Filipe Batista e.; Marin, Mario; Lavalle, Carlo; Leblois, Antoine

2016-04-01

The projected increases in exposure to multiple climate hazards in many regions of Europe, emphasize the relevance of a multi-hazard risk assessment to comprehensively quantify potential impacts of climate change and develop suitable adaptation strategies. In this context, quantifying the future impacts of climatic extremes on critical infrastructures is crucial due to their key role for human wellbeing and their effects on the overall economy. Critical infrastructures describe the existing assets and systems that are essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. We assess the direct damages of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, droughts, wildfires and windstorms to energy, transport, industry and social infrastructures in Europe along the 21st century. The methodology integrates in a coherent framework climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. Overall damage is expected to rise up to 38 billion €/yr, ten time-folds the current climate damage, with drastic variations in risk scenarios. Exemplificative are drought and heat-related damages that could represent 70% of the overall climate damage in 2080s versus the current 12%. Many regions, prominently Southern Europe, will likely suffer multiple stresses and systematic infrastructure failures due to climate extremes if no suitable adaptation measures will be taken.

Effects of a significant New Madrid Seismic Zone event on oil and natural gas pipelines and their cascading effects to critical infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fields, Damon E.

Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) is a construct that relates preparedness and responsiveness to natural or man-made disasters that involve vulnerable assets deemed essential for the functioning of our economy and society. Infrastructure systems (power grids, bridges, airports, etc.) are vulnerable to disastrous types of events--natural or man-made. Failures of these systems can have devastating effects on communities and entire regions. CIP relates our willingness, ability, and capability to defend, mitigate, and re-constitute those assets that succumb to disasters affecting one or more infrastructure sectors. This qualitative research utilized ethnography and employed interviews with subject matter experts (SMEs) from various fields of study regarding CIP with respect to oil and natural gas pipelines in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The study focused on the research question: What can be done to mitigate vulnerabilities in the oil and natural gas infrastructures, along with the potential cascading effects to interdependent systems, associated with a New Madrid fault event? The researcher also analyzed National Level Exercises (NLE) and real world events, and associated After Action Reports (AAR) and Lessons Learned (LL) in order to place a holistic lens across all infrastructures and their dependencies and interdependencies. Three main themes related to the research question emerged: (a) preparedness, (b) mitigation, and (c) impacts. These themes comprised several dimensions: (a) redundancy, (b) node hardening, (c) education, (d) infrastructure damage, (e) cascading effects, (f) interdependencies, (g) exercises, and (h) earthquake readiness. As themes and dimensions are analyzed, they are considered against findings in AARs and LL from previous real world events and large scale exercise events for validation or rejection.

Resilient Military Systems and the Advanced Cyber Threat

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

systems; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems; logistics and human resource systems; and mobile as well as fixed- infrastructure ...significant portions of military and critical infrastructure : power generation, communications, fuel and transportation, emergency services, financial...vulnerabilities in the domestic power grid and critical infrastructure systems.4,5 DoD, and the United States, is extremely reliant on the

Regional prioritisation of flood risk in mountainous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelis, M. C.; Werner, M.; Obregón, N.; Wright, G.

2015-07-01

A regional analysis of flood risk was carried out in the mountainous area surrounding the city of Bogotá (Colombia). Vulnerability at regional level was assessed on the basis of a principal component analysis carried out with variables recognised in literature to contribute to vulnerability; using watersheds as the unit of analysis. The area exposed was obtained from a simplified flood analysis at regional level to provide a mask where vulnerability variables were extracted. The vulnerability indicator obtained from the principal component analysis was combined with an existing susceptibility indicator, thus providing an index that allows the watersheds to be prioritised in support of flood risk management at regional level. Results show that the components of vulnerability can be expressed in terms of four constituent indicators; socio-economic fragility, which is composed of demography and lack of well-being; lack of resilience, which is composed of education, preparedness and response capacity, rescue capacity, social cohesion and participation; and physical exposure is composed of exposed infrastructure and exposed population. A sensitivity analysis shows that the classification of vulnerability is robust for watersheds with low and high values of the vulnerability indicator, while some watersheds with intermediate values of the indicator are sensitive to shifting between medium and high vulnerability. The complex interaction between vulnerability and hazard is evidenced in the case study. Environmental degradation in vulnerable watersheds shows the influence that vulnerability exerts on hazard and vice versa, thus establishing a cycle that builds up risk conditions.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Rohat, Guillaume

2018-03-19

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability-under varying levels of socioeconomic development-and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

Assessing internal biophysical vulnerability to landslide hazards - a nested catchment approach: Xiangxi Watershed / Three Gorges Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz

2010-05-01

The Three Gorges dam construction was completed in 2006. Besides the international media, also the responsible authorities and various scholarly communities pay close attention to potential and actual environmental impacts related to the impoundment and development activities. The geo-environment within the Three Gorges region is highly conducive to landslides. Consequently, a scientific monitoring and risk mitigation system was established and is still under development. Risk analysis with regard to gravity driven mass movements is highly complex and strongly site specific - several aspects hamper a universal methodology applicable for landslide risk and site assessment. The interdisciplinary Sino-German Yangtze-Project Research co-operation aims, among others, to support the sustainable cultivation of the newly developed ecosystems within the Yangtze catchments. Land use change and increasing population growth are causing severe pressure on the scarce land resources. Landslides are acknowledged as important threat, hence vulnerability of certain landscape components have to be identified, quantified and monitored. A nested quantitative approach for vulnerability analysis is developed. The applied risk and vulnerability model understands risk as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Whereas vulnerability is characterized by: mass movement intensity and susceptibility of the respective element at risk. The watershed of Xiangxi river serves as study area. In general, catchment approaches intent and proved to be a functional geographical unit for successful integrated resources management. Several limitations with regard to data accessibility, availability and accuracy have to be considered due to restrictions of feasible scales. Comprehensive large-scale site investigations are confined to training areas for model calibration and validation. Remote sensing potentials are utilised for land use/ land cover change analysis and localization of selected elements. Dwellings and road infrastructure, chosen as high priorities, are captured based on various data like: high resolution satellite imagery, topographic information and field investigation. Currently demographic data is available only at administrative county level - therefore buildings will serve as spatial proxy for population density. Elements at risk will be classified into categories and susceptibility factors will be identified for sampled groups. The envisaged model defines the susceptibility of a certain element at risk not only by the element itself - it assumes that the specific susceptibility is also strongly influenced by the particular surroundings. The susceptibility of a certain building, as for instance, will be defined by the structure type and condition, and in addition or as proxy, specific site characteristics like: slope angle and aspect, soil type and erodibility, lithology, proximity to streams, proximity to the Three Gorges reservoir, depth to groundwater, land use change and dissect intensity, if feasible. Each factor with potential influence on susceptibility will go through a GIS based factor weighting procedure as part of the quantitative vulnerability model. Holistic, "cross scale integrated" vulnerability assessment models need to integrate environmental, social/ cultural and economic aspects. Therefore the proposed vulnerability assessment model must be seen as a starting point for a conceptual framework, and might serve as stimulus to local disaster- and resources management systems. Furthermore the GIS based model enables the opportunity to be linked and refined within the local spatial data infrastructure initiatives.

Assessing Hazard Vulnerability, Habitat Conservation, and Restoration for the Enhancement of Mainland China's Coastal Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajjad, Muhammad; Li, Yangfan; Tang, Zhenghong; Cao, Ling; Liu, Xiaoping

2018-03-01

Worldwide, humans are facing high risks from natural hazards, especially in coastal regions with high population densities. Rising sea levels due to global warming are making coastal communities' infrastructure vulnerable to natural disasters. The present study aims to provide a coupling approach of vulnerability and resilience through restoration and conservation of lost or degraded coastal natural habitats to reclamation under different climate change scenarios. The integrated valuation of ecosystems and tradeoffs model is used to assess the current and future vulnerability of coastal communities. The model employed is based on seven different biogeophysical variables to calculate a natural hazard index and to highlight the criticality of the restoration of natural habitats. The results show that roughly 25% of the coastline and more than 5 million residents are in highly vulnerable coastal areas of mainland China, and these numbers are expected to double by 2100. Our study suggests that restoration and conservation in recently reclaimed areas have the potential to reduce this vulnerability by 45%. Hence, natural habitats have proved to be a great defense against coastal hazards and should be prioritized in coastal planning and development. The findings confirm that natural habitats are critical for coastal resilience and can act as a recovery force of coastal functionality loss. Therefore, we recommend that the Chinese government prioritizes restoration (where possible) and conservation of the remaining habitats for the sake of coastal resilience to prevent natural hazards from escalating into disasters.

Determining the Financial Impact of Flood Hazards in Ungaged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotterman, K. A.; Gutenson, J. L.; Pradhan, N. R.; Byrd, A.

2017-12-01

Many portions of the Earth lack adequate authoritative or in situ data that is of great value in determining natural hazard vulnerability from both anthropogenic and physical perspective. Such locations include the majority of developing nations, which do not possess adequate warning systems and protective infrastructure. The lack of warning and protection from natural hazards make these nations vulnerable to the destructive power of events such as floods. The goal of this research is to demonstrate an initial workflow with which to characterize flood financial hazards with global datasets and crowd-sourced, non-authoritative data in ungagged river basins. This workflow includes the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the watershed to precipitation, characterized by the physics-based modeling application Gridded Surface-Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. In addition, data infrastructure and resources are available to approximate the human impact of flooding. Open source, volunteer geographic information (VGI) data can provide global coverage of elements at risk of flooding. Additional valuation mechanisms can then translate flood exposure into percentage and financial damage to each building. The combinations of these tools allow the authors to remotely assess flood hazards with minimal computational, temporal, and financial overhead. This combination of deterministic and stochastic modeling provides the means to quickly characterize watershed flood vulnerability and will allow emergency responders and planners to better understand the implications of flooding, both spatially and financially. In either a planning, real-time, or forecasting scenario, the system will assist the user in understanding basin flood vulnerability and increasing community resiliency and preparedness.

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

PubMed

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Impacts of sea-level rise on the Moroccan coastal zone: Quantifying coastal erosion and flooding in the Tangier Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Khouakhi, Abdou; Niang-Diop, Isabelle

2009-06-01

As part of a broad assessment of climate change impacts in Morocco, an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation of coastal zones to sea-level rise was conducted. Tangier Bay which is the most important socio-economic pole in Northern Morocco represents one of the cases studies. Using a GIS-based inundation analysis and an erosion modelling approach, the potential physical vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise was investigated, and the most vulnerable socio-economic sectors were assessed. Results indicate that 10% and 24% of the area will be at risk of flooding respectively for minimum (4 m) and maximum (11 m) inundation levels. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the coastal defences and the port, the urban area, tourist coastal infrastructures, the railway, and the industrial area. Shoreline erosion would affect nearly 20% and 45% of the total beach areas respectively in 2050 and 2100. Potential response strategies and adaptation options identified include: sand dune fixation, beach nourishment and building of seawalls to protect the urban and industrial areas of high value. It was also recommended that an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan for the region, including upgrading awareness, building regulation and urban growth planning should be the most appropriate tool to ensure a long-term sustainable development, while addressing the vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise.

Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

2013-12-01

Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban planning process by addressing some of these needs. In this paper we highlight the decision tools available today, discuss their application in selected case studies, and present a gap analysis with opportunities for innovation and future work.

A Methodology for Assessing the Impact of Sea Level Rise on Representative Military Installation in the Southwestern United States (RC-1703)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

escarpments, relic sediment fans off river mouths , and submarine canyons (courtesy of the Coastal Data Information Program http://cdip.ucsd.edu...with the Source- Pathway-Receptor model. In other words , the question should specify the source of the vulnerability, the receptor that is impacted...works and other infrastructure, renewable and subsistence resources, tourism , recreation, transportation functions, cultural resources, agriculture

The Common Risk Model for Dams: A Portfolio Approach to Security Risk Assessments

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

and threat estimates in a way that accounts for the relationships among these variables. The CRM -D can effectively quantify the benefits of...consequence, vulnerability, and threat estimates in a way that properly accounts for the relationships among these variables. The CRM -D can effectively...Common RiskModel ( CRM ) for evaluating and comparing risks associated with the nation’s critical infrastructure. This model incorporates commonly used risk

Preliminary impact assessment of effusive eruptions at Etna volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappello, Annalisa; Michaud-Dubuy, Audrey; Branca, Stefano; De Beni, Emanuela; Del Negro, Ciro

2016-04-01

Lava flows are a recurring and widespread form of volcanic activity that threaten people and property around the world. The growing demographic congestion around volcanic structures increases the potential risks and costs that lava flows represent, and leads to a pressing need for faster and more accurate assessment of lava flow impact. To fully evaluate potential effects and losses that an effusive eruption may cause to society, property and environment, it is necessary to consider the hazard, the distribution of the exposed elements at stake and the associated vulnerability. Lava flow hazard assessment is at an advanced state, whereas comprehensive vulnerability assessment is lacking. Cataloguing and analyzing volcanic impacts provide insight on likely societal and physical vulnerabilities during future eruptions. Here we quantify the lava flow impact of two past main effusive eruptions of Etna volcano: the 1669, which is the biggest and destructive flank eruption to have occurred on Etna in historical time, and the 1981, lasting only 6 days, but characterized by an intense eruptive dynamics. Different elements at stake are considered, including population, hospitals, critical facilities, buildings of historic value, industrial infrastructures, gas and electricity networks, railways, roads, footways and finally land use. All these elements were combined with the 1669 and 1981 lava flow fields to quantify the social damage and economic loss.

Wyoming freight movement system vulnerabilities and ITS.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-01

This report summarizes the work performed during the second phase of a two-phase : research project. The first phase focused on two main areas: freight safety and wind : vulnerability, and the identification of critical infrastructure. Phase I also t...

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Energy Vulnerability Assessment for the US Pacific Islands. Technical Appendix 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.

1994-05-01

The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands,more » and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term.« less

A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebenberg, Keagen; Smit, Ansie; Coetzee, Serena; Kijko, Andrzej

2017-08-01

The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.

Climate Adaptation Training for Natural Resource Professionals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorensen, H. L.; Meyer, N.

2016-02-01

The University of Minnesota Sea Grant Program and University of Minensota Extension are coordinating the development of a cohort-based training for natural resource professionals that prepares them with essential aptitude, resources and tools to lead climate adaptation activities in their organizations and municipalities. This course is geared toward the growing cadre of natural resources, water, municipal infrastructure, and human resources professionals who are called upon to lead climate adaptation initiatives but lack core training in climate change science, vulnerability assessment, and adaptation planning. Modeled on pre-existing UMN certificate programs, the online course encompasses approximately 40 contact hours of training. Content builds from basic climate mechanics to change science, vulnerability assessment, downscaled climate modeling, ecosystem response to climate change and strategies communicating climate change to diverse audiences. Minnesota as well as national case studies and expertise will anchor core climate adaptation concepts in a relevant context.

Vulnerability of network of networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havlin, S.; Kenett, D. Y.; Bashan, A.; Gao, J.; Stanley, H. E.

2014-10-01

Our dependence on networks - be they infrastructure, economic, social or others - leaves us prone to crises caused by the vulnerabilities of these networks. There is a great need to develop new methods to protect infrastructure networks and prevent cascade of failures (especially in cases of coupled networks). Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How, and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against malicious attacks? The gradual increase in attacks on the networks society depends on - Internet, mobile phone, transportation, air travel, banking, etc. - emphasize the need to develop new strategies to protect and defend these crucial networks of communication and infrastructure networks. One example is the threat of liquid explosives a few years ago, which completely shut down air travel for days, and has created extreme changes in regulations. Such threats and dangers warrant the need for new tools and strategies to defend critical infrastructure. In this paper we review recent advances in the theoretical understanding of the vulnerabilities of interdependent networks with and without spatial embedding, attack strategies and their affect on such networks of networks as well as recently developed strategies to optimize and repair failures caused by such attacks.

Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

2015-04-01

Critical infrastructure such as electricity substations are vulnerable to various geo-hazards that arise from climate change. These geo-hazards range from increased vegetation growth to increased temperatures and flood inundation. Of all the identified geo-hazards, coastal flooding has the greatest impact, but to date has had a low probability of occurring. However, in the face of climate change, coastal flooding is likely to occur more often due to extreme water levels being experienced more frequently due to sea-level rise (SLR). Knowing what impact coastal flooding will have now and in the future on critical infrastructure such as electrical substations is important for long-term management. Using a flood inundation model, present day and future flood events have been simulated, from 1 in 1 year events up to 1 in 10,000 year events. The modelling makes an integrated assessment of impact by using sea-level and surge to simulate a storm tide. The geographical area the model covers is part of the Northwest UK coastline with a range of urban and rural areas. The ensemble of flood maps generated allows the identification of critical infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding. Vulnerability has be assessed using an Estimated Annual Damage (EAD) value. Sampling SLR annual probability distributions produces a projected "pathway" for SLR up to 2100. EAD is then calculated using a relationship derived from the flood model. Repeating the sampling process allows a distribution of EAD up to 2100 to be produced. These values are discounted to present day values using an appropriate discount rate. If the cost of building and maintain defences is also removed from this a Net Present Value (NPV) of building the defences can be calculated. This distribution of NPV can be used as part of a cost modelling process involving Real Options, A real option is the right but not obligation to undertake investment decisions. In terms of investment in critical infrastructure resilience this means that a real option can be deferred or exercised depending on the climate future that has been realised. The real option value is defined as the maximum positive NPV value that is found across the range of potential SLR "futures". Real Options add value in that flood defences may not be built when there is real value in doing so. The cost modelling output is in the form of an accessible database that has detailed real option values varying spatially across the model domain (for each critical infrastructure) and temporally up to 2100. The analysis has shown that in 2100, 8.2% of the substations analysed have a greater than a 1 in 2 chance of exercising the real option to build flood defences against coastal flooding. The cost modelling tool and flood maps that have been developed will help stakeholders in deciding where and when to invest in mitigating against coastal flooding.

Engineering Infrastructures: Problems of Safety and Security in the Russian Federation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makhutov, Nikolay A.; Reznikov, Dmitry O.; Petrov, Vitaly P.

Modern society cannot exist without stable and reliable engineering infrastructures (EI), whose operation is vital for any national economy. These infrastructures include energy, transportation, water and gas supply systems, telecommunication and cyber systems, etc. Their performance is commensurate with storing and processing huge amounts of information, energy and hazardous substances. Ageing infrastructures are deteriorating — with operating conditions declining from normal to emergency and catastrophic. The complexity of engineering infrastructures and their interdependence with other technical systems makes them vulnerable to emergency situations triggered by natural and manmade catastrophes or terrorist attacks.

Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

2016-12-01

The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

The national strategy for the physical protection of critical infrastructures and key assets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-02-01

This document defines the road ahead for a core mission area identified in the President's National Strategy for Homeland Security-reducing the Nation's vulnerability to acts of terrorism by protecting our critical infrastructures and key assets from...

Community exposure and vulnerability to water quality and availability: a case study in the mining-affected Pazña Municipality, Lake Poopó Basin, Bolivian Altiplano.

PubMed

French, Megan; Alem, Natalie; Edwards, Stephen J; Blanco Coariti, Efraín; Cauthin, Helga; Hudson-Edwards, Karen A; Luyckx, Karen; Quintanilla, Jorge; Sánchez Miranda, Oscar

2017-10-01

Assessing water sources for drinking and irrigation along with community vulnerability, especially in developing and rural regions, is important for reducing risk posed by poor water quality and limited water availability and accessibility. We present a case study of rural mining-agricultural communities in the Lake Poopó Basin, one of the poorest regions on the Bolivian Altiplano. Here, relatively low rainfall, high evaporation, salinization and unregulated mining activity have contributed to environmental degradation and water issues, which is a situation facing many Altiplano communities. Social data from 72 households and chemical water quality data from 27 surface water and groundwater sites obtained between August 2013 and July 2014 were used to develop locally relevant vulnerability assessment methodologies and ratings with respect to water availability and quality, and Chemical Water Quality Hazard Ratings to assess water quality status. Levels of natural and mining-related contamination in many waters (CWQHR ≥ 6; 78% of assessed sites) mean that effective remediation would be challenging and require substantial investment. Although waters of fair to good chemical quality (CWQHR ≤ 5; 22% of assessed sites) do exist, treatment may still be required depending on use, and access issues remain problematic. There is a need to comply with water quality legislation, improve and maintain basic water supply and storage infrastructure, build and operate water and wastewater treatment plants, and adequately and safely contain and treat mine waste. This study serves as a framework that could be used elsewhere for assessing and mitigating water contamination and availability affecting vulnerable populations.

Community exposure and vulnerability to water quality and availability: a case study in the mining-affected Pazña Municipality, Lake Poopó Basin, Bolivian Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Megan; Alem, Natalie; Edwards, Stephen J.; Blanco Coariti, Efraín; Cauthin, Helga; Hudson-Edwards, Karen A.; Luyckx, Karen; Quintanilla, Jorge; Sánchez Miranda, Oscar

2017-10-01

Assessing water sources for drinking and irrigation along with community vulnerability, especially in developing and rural regions, is important for reducing risk posed by poor water quality and limited water availability and accessibility. We present a case study of rural mining-agricultural communities in the Lake Poopó Basin, one of the poorest regions on the Bolivian Altiplano. Here, relatively low rainfall, high evaporation, salinization and unregulated mining activity have contributed to environmental degradation and water issues, which is a situation facing many Altiplano communities. Social data from 72 households and chemical water quality data from 27 surface water and groundwater sites obtained between August 2013 and July 2014 were used to develop locally relevant vulnerability assessment methodologies and ratings with respect to water availability and quality, and Chemical Water Quality Hazard Ratings to assess water quality status. Levels of natural and mining-related contamination in many waters (CWQHR ≥ 6; 78% of assessed sites) mean that effective remediation would be challenging and require substantial investment. Although waters of fair to good chemical quality (CWQHR ≤ 5; 22% of assessed sites) do exist, treatment may still be required depending on use, and access issues remain problematic. There is a need to comply with water quality legislation, improve and maintain basic water supply and storage infrastructure, build and operate water and wastewater treatment plants, and adequately and safely contain and treat mine waste. This study serves as a framework that could be used elsewhere for assessing and mitigating water contamination and availability affecting vulnerable populations.

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as “high vulnerability.” Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment. PMID:28352286

Socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards - proposal for an indicator-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, U.; McLean, A.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Kalsnes, B.; Ciurean, R. L.; Argyroudis, S.; Winter, M.; Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O. C.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Baills, A.; Malet, J. P.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment, with respect to natural hazards, is a complex process that must consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability, including both physical and social factors. Physical vulnerability refers to conditions of physical assets, and may be modeled by the intensity and magnitude of the hazard, the degree of physical protection provided by the natural and built environment, and the physical robustness of the exposed elements. Social vulnerability refers to the underlying factors leading to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand impacts from the natural hazards. Social vulnerability models can be used in combination with physical vulnerability models to estimate both direct losses, i.e. losses that occur during and immediately after the impact, as well as indirect losses, i.e. long-term effects of the event. Direct impact of a landslide typically includes casualties and damages to buildings and infrastructure while indirect losses may e.g. include business closures or limitations in public services. The direct losses are often assessed using physical vulnerability indicators (e.g. construction material, height of buildings), while indirect losses are mainly assessed using social indicators (e.g. economical resources, demographic conditions). Within the EC-FP7 SafeLand research project, an indicator-based method was proposed to assess relative socio-economic vulnerability to landslides. The indicators represent the underlying factors which influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators representing demographic, economic and social characteristics as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness and recovery capacity. Although the model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include more physical indicators which account for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually ranked from 1 (lowest vulnerability) to 5 (highest vulnerability) and weighted, based on its overall degree of influence. The indicator weights range from 1 (least influential) to 3 (most influential) and have been selected on the basis of expert judgment. The final vulnerability score is taken as the weighted average of the individual indicators. The method was applied for locations in Norway, Greece, France, Andorra and Romania. The purpose of the case studies was to compare vulnerability levels and to test and possibly improve the methodology. In the case studies, similar vulnerability scores were obtained for the locations in Norway, Andorra and France. A higher vulnerability score was obtained for the location in Greece, while the highest vulnerability score was obtained for the location in Romania. The higher score for the locations in Greece and Romania are mainly due to economic conditions and conditions regarding preparedness and recovery.

Evaluating the Financial Vulnerability of a Major Electric Utility in the Southeastern U.S. to Drought under Climate Change and an Evolving Generation Mix.

PubMed

Kern, Jordan D; Characklis, Gregory W

2017-08-01

There is increasing recognition of the vulnerability of electric power systems to drought and the potential for both climate change and a shifting generation mix to alter this vulnerability. Nonetheless, the considerable research in this area has not been synthesized to inform electric utilities with respect to a key factor that influences their decisions about critical infrastructure: financial risk for shareholders. This study addresses this gap in knowledge by developing a systems framework for assessing the financial exposure of utilities to drought, with further consideration of the effects of climate change and a shifting generation mix. We then apply this framework to a major utility in the Southeastern U.S. Results suggest that extreme drought could cause profit shortfalls of more than $100 million if water temperature regulations are strictly enforced. However, even losses of this magnitude would not significantly impact returns for shareholders. This may inadvertently reduce pressure internally at utilities to incorporate drought vulnerability into long-term strategic planning, potentially leaving utilities and their customers at greater risk in the future.

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that increases the vulnerability of the built environment. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska’s public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenar...

Cyber Vulnerabilities Within Critical Infrastructure: The Flaws of Industrial Control Systems in the Oil and Gas Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpi, Danielle Marie

The 16 sectors of critical infrastructure in the US are susceptible to cyber-attacks. Potential attacks come from internal and external threats. These attacks target the industrial control systems (ICS) of companies within critical infrastructure. Weakness in the energy sector's ICS, specifically the oil and gas industry, can result in economic and ecological disaster. The purpose of this study was to establish means for oil companies to identify and stop cyber-attacks specifically APT threats. This research reviewed current cyber vulnerabilities and ways in which a cyber-attack may be deterred. This research found that there are insecure devices within ICS that are not regularly updated. Therefore, security issues have amassed. Safety procedures and training thereof are often neglected. Jurisdiction is unclear in regard to critical infrastructure. The recommendations this research offers are further examination of information sharing methods, development of analytic platforms, and better methods for the implementation of defense-in-depth security measures.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change. PMID:29562727

Transportation system vulnerability and resilience to extreme weather events and other natural hazards report for pilot project - KYTC District 1.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-09-01

This researchs objective is to assist the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) in its efforts to : develop strategies to address natural hazard vulnerabilities and improve the resiliency of : Kentuckys transportation infrastructure. Recent fe...

Measuring Road Network Vulnerability with Sensitivity Analysis

PubMed Central

Jun-qiang, Leng; Long-hai, Yang; Liu, Wei-yi; Zhao, Lin

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the development of a method for road network vulnerability analysis, from the perspective of capacity degradation, which seeks to identify the critical infrastructures in the road network and the operational performance of the whole traffic system. This research involves defining the traffic utility index and modeling vulnerability of road segment, route, OD (Origin Destination) pair and road network. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis method is utilized to calculate the change of traffic utility index due to capacity degradation. This method, compared to traditional traffic assignment, can improve calculation efficiency and make the application of vulnerability analysis to large actual road network possible. Finally, all the above models and calculation method is applied to actual road network evaluation to verify its efficiency and utility. This approach can be used as a decision-supporting tool for evaluating the performance of road network and identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management, especially in the resource allocation for mitigation and recovery. PMID:28125706

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacDonald, Douglas G.; Clements, Samuel L.; Patrick, Scott W.

Securing high value and critical assets is one of the biggest challenges facing this nation and others around the world. In modern integrated systems, there are four potential modes of attack available to an adversary: • physical only attack, • cyber only attack, • physical-enabled cyber attack, • cyber-enabled physical attack. Blended attacks involve an adversary working in one domain to reduce system effectiveness in another domain. This enables the attacker to penetrate further into the overall layered defenses. Existing vulnerability assessment (VA) processes and software tools which predict facility vulnerabilities typically evaluate the physical and cyber domains separately. Vulnerabilitiesmore » which result from the integration of cyber-physical control systems are not well characterized and are often overlooked by existing assessment approaches. In this paper, we modified modification of the timely detection methodology, used for decades in physical security VAs, to include cyber components. The Physical and Cyber Risk Analysis Tool (PACRAT) prototype illustrates an integrated vulnerability assessment that includes cyber-physical interdependencies. Information about facility layout, network topology, and emplaced safeguards is used to evaluate how well suited a facility is to detect, delay, and respond to attacks, to identify the pathways most vulnerable to attack, and to evaluate how often safeguards are compromised for a given threat or adversary type. We have tested the PACRAT prototype on critical infrastructure facilities and the results are promising. Future work includes extending the model to prescribe the recommended security improvements via an automated cost-benefit analysis.« less

3 CFR 8910 - Proclamation 8910 of November 30, 2012. Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience Month...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... also its vulnerabilities to emerging threats. Cyber incidents can have devastating consequences on both... against cyber risks, comprehensive legislation remains essential to improving infrastructure security, enhancing cyber information sharing between government and the private sector, and protecting the privacy...

Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical Infrastructure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackerman, G; Abhayaratne, P; Bale, J

Certain types of infrastructure--critical infrastructure (CI)--play vital roles in underpinning our economy, security and way of life. These complex and often interconnected systems have become so ubiquitous and essential to day-to-day life that they are easily taken for granted. Often it is only when the important services provided by such infrastructure are interrupted--when we lose easy access to electricity, health care, telecommunications, transportation or water, for example--that we are conscious of our great dependence on these networks and of the vulnerabilities that stem from such dependence. Unfortunately, it must be assumed that many terrorists are all too aware that CImore » facilities pose high-value targets that, if successfully attacked, have the potential to dramatically disrupt the normal rhythm of society, cause public fear and intimidation, and generate significant publicity. Indeed, revelations emerging at the time of this writing about Al Qaida's efforts to prepare for possible attacks on major financial facilities in New York, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia remind us just how real and immediate such threats to CI may be. Simply being aware that our nation's critical infrastructure presents terrorists with a plethora of targets, however, does little to mitigate the dangers of CI attacks. In order to prevent and preempt such terrorist acts, better understanding of the threats and vulnerabilities relating to critical infrastructure is required. The Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) presents this document as both a contribution to the understanding of such threats and an initial effort at ''operationalizing'' its findings for use by analysts who work on issues of critical infrastructure protection. Specifically, this study focuses on a subsidiary aspect of CI threat assessment that has thus far remained largely unaddressed by contemporary terrorism research: the motivations and related factors that determine whether a terrorist organization will attack critical infrastructure. In other words, this research investigates: (1) why terrorists choose to attack critical infrastructure rather than other targets; (2) how groups make such decisions; (3) what, if any, types of groups are most inclined to attack critical infrastructure targets; and (4) which types of critical infrastructure terrorists prefer to attack and why. In an effort to address the above questions as comprehensively as possible, the project team employed four discrete investigative approaches in its research design. These include: (1) a review of existing terrorism and threat assessment literature to glean expert consensus regarding terrorist target selection, as well as to identify theoretical approaches that might be valuable to analysts and decision-makers who are seeking to understand such terrorist group decision-making processes; (2) the preparation of several concise case studies to help identify internal group factors and contextual influences that have played significant roles in leading some terrorist groups to attack critical infrastructure; (3) the creation of a new database--the Critical Infrastructure Terrorist Incident Catalog (CrITC)--to capture a large sample of empirical CI attack data that might be used to illuminate the nature of such attacks to date; and (4) the development of a new analytical framework--the Determinants Effecting Critical Infrastructure Decisions (DECIDe) Framework--designed to make the factors and dynamics identified by the study more ''usable'' in any future efforts to assess terrorist intentions to target critical infrastructure. Although each is addressed separately in the following chapters, none of the four aspects of this study were developed in isolation. Rather, all the constituent elements of the project informed--and were informed by--the others. For example, the review of the available literature on terrorist target selection made possible the identification of several target selection factors that were both important in the development of the analytical framework and subsequently validated by the case studies. Similarly, statistical analysis of the CrITIC data yielded measurable evidence that supported hypotheses derived from the framework, the case studies, and the writings of various experts. Besides providing an important mechanism of self-reinforcement and validation, the project's multifaceted nature made it possible to discern aspects of CI attack motivations that would likely have been missed if any single approach had been adopted.« less

Risk prediction of Critical Infrastructures against extreme natural hazards: local and regional scale analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosato, Vittorio; Hounjet, Micheline; Burzel, Andreas; Di Pietro, Antonio; Tofani, Alberto; Pollino, Maurizio; Giovinazzi, Sonia

2016-04-01

Natural hazard events can induce severe impacts on the built environment; they can hit wide and densely populated areas, where there is a large number of (inter)dependent technological systems whose damages could cause the failure or malfunctioning of further different services, spreading the impacts on wider geographical areas. The EU project CIPRNet (Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience Research Network) is realizing an unprecedented Decision Support System (DSS) which enables to operationally perform risk prediction on Critical Infrastructures (CI) by predicting the occurrence of natural events (from long term weather to short nowcast predictions, correlating intrinsic vulnerabilities of CI elements with the different events' manifestation strengths, and analysing the resulting Damage Scenario. The Damage Scenario is then transformed into an Impact Scenario, where punctual CI element damages are transformed into micro (local area) or meso (regional) scale Services Outages. At the smaller scale, the DSS simulates detailed city models (where CI dependencies are explicitly accounted for) that are of important input for crisis management organizations whereas, at the regional scale by using approximate System-of-Systems model describing systemic interactions, the focus is on raising awareness. The DSS has allowed to develop a novel simulation framework for predicting earthquakes shake maps originating from a given seismic event, considering the shock wave propagation in inhomogeneous media and the subsequent produced damages by estimating building vulnerabilities on the basis of a phenomenological model [1, 2]. Moreover, in presence of areas containing river basins, when abundant precipitations are expected, the DSS solves the hydrodynamic 1D/2D models of the river basins for predicting the flux runoff and the corresponding flood dynamics. This calculation allows the estimation of the Damage Scenario and triggers the evaluation of the Impact Scenario. The regional output of cascading effects can be used as an input model for more detailed analyses within urban areas for instance. The DSS weights the overall expected Crisis Scenario by also considering, through an appropriate Consequences Analysis, the number of citizens affected by the Service(s) outages, the expected economic losses of the major industrial activities hit by the unavailability of relevant Services (electricity, water, telecommunications etc.) and the influence of outages of the availability of Public Services (hospitals, schools, public offices etc.) [1] S.Giovinazzi, S. Lagomarsino: A macroseismic method for the vulnerability assessment of buildings. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, Canada (2004) [2] S. Lagomarsino, S.Giovinazzi: Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings. Bull Earthquake Eng., 4:415-443 (2006)

Multiple Natural Hazards Assessment and Comparison to Planned Land Use in an Andean Touristic Site within the Riskscape Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Andreas; Jaque Castillo, Edilia

2017-04-01

The Andes of central Chile are a natural environment characterized by multiple natural hazards (mass movements, volcanic hazards, seismic hazards, snow avalanches to name a few). The totality of these hazards, according to the notion of Müller-Mahn et al. an in relation to vulnerable entities, spans a riskscape. Spatial planning should take this riskscape into account in order to ensure a save an resilient regional development. However, as frequently observed in developing or newly developed countries, such precaution measures are only hardly realized. Spatial planing tends to be reactive to private inversion, opportunistic and frequently clientelistic. This results in spatial structures whose future development is vulnerable to natural disasters. The contribution analyses these circumstances within a riskscape in central Chile. Within the VIII. Region, close to the volcanic complex Nevados de Chillan, a touristic development around a Hotel for winter sports is established. However, the place is affected by a multitude of natural hazards. The contribution, on the basis of primary and secondary data, first provides hazard maps for several natural hazards. Secondly, the individual hazard maps are merged to an overall hazard map. This overall hazard map is related to the vulnerable entities to span a riskscape. The vulnerable entities are settlements, but also tourist infrastructures. Then, the contribution compares how a precautions spatial planning could have avoided putting vulnerable entities at risk, which spatial structure - especially regarding tourism - is actually found and which challenges for spatial development do exist. It reveals that the most important tourist infrastructures are found particularly at places, characterized by a high overall hazard. Furthermore, it will show that alternatives at economically equally attractive sites, but with a much smaller overall hazard, would have existed. It concludes by discussing possible reasons for this by considering the Chilean planning system.

Climate change health assessment: a novel approach for Alaska Native communities.

PubMed

Brubaker, Michael Y; Bell, Jacob N; Berner, James E; Warren, John A

2011-06-01

Develop a process for assessing climate change impacts on public health that identifies climate-health vulnerabilities and mechanisms and encourages adaptation. Multi-stakeholder, participatory, qualitative research. A Climate Change Health Assessment (CCHA) was developed that involved 4 steps: (1) scoping to describe local conditions and engage stakeholders; (2) surveying to collect descriptive and quantitative data; (3) analysis to evaluate the data; and (4) planning to communicate findings and explore appropriate actions with community members. The health effects related to extreme weather, thinning ice, erosion, flooding, thawing permafrost and changing conditions of water and food resources were considered. The CCHA process was developed and performed in north-west Arctic villages. Refinement of the process took place in Point Hope, a coastal Inupiat village that practices whaling and a variety of other traditional subsistence harvest practices. Local observers identified climate change impacts that resulted in damaged health infrastructure, compromised food and water security and increased risk of injury. Priority health issues included thawing traditional ice cellars, diminished quality of the community water source and increased safety issues related to sea ice change. The CCHA increased awareness about health vulnerability and encouraged informed planning and decision-making. A community-scale assessment process guided by observation-based data can identify climate health impacts, raise awareness and encourage adaptive actions, thereby improving the response capacity of communities vulnerable to climate change.

Multiple perspective vulnerability analysis of the power network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Duan, Na

2018-02-01

To understand the vulnerability of the power network from multiple perspectives, multi-angle and multi-dimensional vulnerability analysis as well as community based vulnerability analysis are proposed in this paper. Taking into account of central China power grid as an example, correlation analysis of different vulnerability models is discussed. Then, vulnerabilities produced by different vulnerability metrics under the given vulnerability models and failure scenarios are analyzed. At last, applying the community detecting approach, critical areas of central China power grid are identified, Vulnerable and robust communities on both topological and functional perspective are acquired and analyzed. The approach introduced in this paper can be used to help decision makers develop optimal protection strategies. It will be also useful to give a multiple vulnerability analysis of the other infrastructure systems.

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and vulnerability and presented in the same way as the vulnerability, as a GIS-based map. Risk maps show geographic regions in Slovenia where droughts pose a major threat to the agriculture and together with the vulnerability maps provide the basis for drought management, in particular for the appropriate mitigation and response actions in specific regions. The developed methodology is expected to be applied to the entire region of South-Eastern Europe within the initiative of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe.

77 FR 74685 - Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) Chemical-Terrorism Vulnerability Information...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-17

... Programs Directorate (NPPD), Office of Infrastructure Protection (IP), Infrastructure Security Compliance... questions about this Information Collection Request should be forwarded to DHS/NPPD/IP/ISCD CFATS Program... to the DHS/NPPD/IP/ISCD CFATS Program Manager at the Department of Homeland Security, 245 Murray Lane...

Application of crowd-sourced data to multi-scale evolutionary exposure and vulnerability models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, Massimiliano

2016-04-01

Seismic exposure, defined as the assets (population, buildings, infrastructure) exposed to earthquake hazard and susceptible to damage, is a critical -but often neglected- component of seismic risk assessment. This partly stems from the burden associated with the compilation of a useful and reliable model over wide spatial areas. While detailed engineering data have still to be collected in order to constrain exposure and vulnerability models, the availability of increasingly large crowd-sourced datasets (e. g. OpenStreetMap) opens up the exciting possibility to generate incrementally evolving models. Integrating crowd-sourced and authoritative data using statistical learning methodologies can reduce models uncertainties and also provide additional drive and motivation to volunteered geoinformation collection. A case study in Central Asia will be presented and discussed.

Assessing social vulnerability in African urban context. The challenge to cope with climate change induced hazards by communities and households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabisch, Sigrun; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Social vulnerability assessment remains central in discourses on global climatic change and takes a more pertinent meaning considering that natural disasters in African countries continue to deeply affect human settlements and destroys human livelihoods. In recent years, in particular large territories and growing cities have experienced severe weather events. Among them are river and flash floods, affecting the social and economic assets of local populations. The impact of the damage related to floods is not only perceptible during seasonal events but also during unexpected larger disasters which place a particular burden on local population and institutions to adapt effectively to increasing climatic pressures. Important features for social vulnerability assessment are the increasing severity of the physical damages, the shortcoming of social and technical infrastructure, the complexity of land management/market, the limited capacity of local institutions and last but not least the restricted capacities of local population to resist these events. Understanding vulnerability implies highlighting and interlinking relevant indicators and/or perceptions encompassed in four main dimensions: social, institutional, physical and attitudinal vulnerability. Case studies in Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa were carried out to obtain insights into the context-related conditions, behavior routines and survival networks in urban areas in west and east Africa. Using a combination of tools (e.g. focus group discussions, transect walks, interviews) we investigated in close cooperation with African partners how households and communities are being prepared to cope with, as well as to recover from floods. A comprehensive process of dealing with floods can be described based on sequential attributes concerning i) Anticipation before a flood occurs, ii) Resistance and coping activities during a flood event and, iii) Recovery and reconstruction afterwards. A participatory approach at household level provides detailed knowledge about the preparedness, the susceptibility and the coping capacities of identified community including its leaders and members. Assessing and ranking the weaknesses and limitations help strengthen awareness and initiate measures for improving coping capacities to social vulnerability in case of flooding. Examples of social vulnerability and the spectrum of coping activities are demonstrated through to use of empirical research results.

Cyber / Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacDonald, Douglas G.; Simpkins, Bret E.

Abstract Both physical protection and cyber security domains offer solutions for the discovery of vulnerabilities through the use of various assessment processes and software tools. Each vulnerability assessment (VA) methodology provides the ability to identify and categorize vulnerabilities, and quantifies the risks within their own areas of expertise. Neither approach fully represents the true potential security risk to a site and/or a facility, nor comprehensively assesses the overall security posture. The technical approach to solving this problem was to identify methodologies and processes that blend the physical and cyber security assessments, and develop tools to accurately quantify the unaccounted formore » risk. SMEs from both the physical and the cyber security domains developed the blending methodologies, and cross trained each other on the various aspects of the physical and cyber security assessment processes. A local critical infrastructure entity volunteered to host a proof of concept physical/cyber security assessment, and the lessons learned have been leveraged by this effort. The four potential modes of attack an adversary can use in approaching a target are; Physical Only Attack, Cyber Only Attack, Physical Enabled Cyber Attack, and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack. The Physical Only and the Cyber Only pathway analysis are two of the most widely analyzed attack modes. The pathway from an off-site location to the desired target location is dissected to ensure adversarial activity can be detected and neutralized by the protection strategy, prior to completion of a predefined task. This methodology typically explores a one way attack from the public space (or common area) inward towards the target. The Physical Enabled Cyber Attack and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack are much more intricate. Both scenarios involve beginning in one domain to affect change in the other, then backing outward to take advantage of the reduced system effectiveness, before penetrating further into the defenses. The proper identification and assessment of the overlapping areas (and interaction between these areas) in the VA process is necessary to accurately assess the true risk.« less

US-CERT Control System Center Input/Output (I/O) Conceputal Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2005-02-01

This document was prepared for the US-CERT Control Systems Center of the National Cyber Security Division (NCSD) of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). DHS has been tasked under the Homeland Security Act of 2002 to coordinate the overall national effort to enhance the protection of the national critical infrastructure. Homeland Security Presidential Directive HSPD-7 directs the federal departments to identify and prioritize critical infrastructure and protect it from terrorist attack. The US-CERT National Strategy for Control Systems Security was prepared by the NCSD to address the control system security component addressed in the National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace andmore » the National Strategy for the Physical Protection of Critical Infrastructures and Key Assets. The US-CERT National Strategy for Control Systems Security identified five high-level strategic goals for improving cyber security of control systems; the I/O upgrade described in this document supports these goals. The vulnerability assessment Test Bed, located in the Information Operations Research Center (IORC) facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), consists of a cyber test facility integrated with multiple test beds that simulate the nation's critical infrastructure. The fundamental mission of the Test Bed is to provide industry owner/operators, system vendors, and multi-agency partners of the INL National Security Division a platform for vulnerability assessments of control systems. The Input/Output (I/O) upgrade to the Test Bed (see Work Package 3.1 of the FY-05 Annual Work Plan) will provide for the expansion of assessment capabilities within the IORC facility. It will also provide capabilities to connect test beds within the Test Range and other Laboratory resources. This will allow real time I/O data input and communication channels for full replications of control systems (Process Control Systems [PCS], Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems [SCADA], and components). This will be accomplished through the design and implementation of a modular infrastructure of control system, communications, networking, computing and associated equipment, and measurement/control devices. The architecture upgrade will provide a flexible patching system providing a quick ''plug and play''configuration through various communication paths to gain access to live I/O running over specific protocols. This will allow for in-depth assessments of control systems in a true-to-life environment. The full I/O upgrade will be completed through a two-phased approach. Phase I, funded by DHS, expands the capabilities of the Test Bed by developing an operational control system in two functional areas, the Science & Technology Applications Research (STAR) Facility and the expansion of various portions of the Test Bed. Phase II (see Appendix A), funded by other programs, will complete the full I/O upgrade to the facility.« less

Maintaining Enterprise Resiliency via Kaleidoscopic Adaption and Transformation of Software Services (MEERKATS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

infrastructure . The work is motivated by the fact that today’s clouds are very static, uniform, and predictable, allowing attackers who identify a...vulnerability in one of the services or infrastructure components to spread their effect to other, mission-critical services. Our goal is to integrate into...clouds by elevating continuous change, evolution, and misinformation as first-rate design principles of the cloud’s infrastructure . Our work is

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael Schmitt; Juan Deaton; Curt Papke

In the event of large-scale natural or manmade catastrophic events, access to reliable and enduring commercial communication systems is critical. Hurricane Katrina provided a recent example of the need to ensure communications during a national emergency. To ensure that communication demands are met during these critical times, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the guidance of United States Strategic Command has studied infrastructure issues, concerns, and vulnerabilities associated with an airborne wireless communications capability. Such a capability could provide emergency wireless communications until public/commercial nodes can be systematically restored. This report focuses on the airborne cellular restoration concept; analyzing basic infrastructuremore » requirements; identifying related infrastructure issues, concerns, and vulnerabilities and offers recommended solutions.« less

Toward Multi-Model Frameworks Addressing Multi-Sector Dynamics, Risks, and Resiliency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, R. H.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Barrett, C.; Kraucunas, I.; Rice, J.; Sue Wing, I.; Bhaduri, B. L.; Reed, P. M.

2016-12-01

This presentation will report on the findings of recent modeling studies and a series of workshops and other efforts convened under the auspices of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to improve integration of critical infrastructure, natural resources, integrated assessment, and human systems modeling. The focus is issues related to drought and increased variability of water supply at the energy-water-land nexus. One motivation for the effort is the potential for impact cascades across coupled built, natural, and socioeconomic systems stressed by social and environmental change. The design is for an adaptable modeling framework that will includes a repository of independently-developed modeling tools of varying complexity - from coarser grid, longer time-horizon to higher-resolution shorter-term models of socioeconomic systems, infrastructure, and natural resources. The models draw from three interlocking research communities: Earth system, impacts/adaptation/vulnerability, and integrated assessment. A key lesson will be explored, namely the importance of defining a clear use perspective to limit dimensionality, focus modeling, and facilitate uncertainty characterization and communication.

Assessing Research Interest and Capacity in Community Health Centers

PubMed Central

Bhuiya, Nazmim; Pernice, Joan; Khan, Sami M.; Sequist, Thomas D.; Tendulkar, Shalini A.

2013-01-01

Abstract Objective Community health centers (CHCs) have great potential to participate in the development of evidence‐based primary care but face obstacles to engagement in clinical translational research. Methods To understand factors associated with CHC interest in building research infrastructure, Harvard Catalyst and the Massachusetts League of Community Health Centers conducted an online survey of medical directors in all 50 Massachusetts CHC networks. Results Thirty‐two (64%) medical directors completed the survey representing 126 clinical sites. Over 80% reported that their primary care providers (PCPs) were slightly to very interested in future clinical research and that they were interested in building research infrastructure at their CHC. Frequently cited barriers to participation in research included financial issues, lack of research skills, and lack of research infrastructure. In bivariate analyses, PCP interest in future clinical research and a belief that involvement in research contributed to PCP retention were significantly associated with interest in building research infrastructure. Conclusion CHCs critical role in caring for vulnerable populations ideally positions them to raise relevant research questions and translate evidence into practice. Our findings suggest a high interest in engagement in research among CHC leadership. CTSAs have a unique opportunity to support local CHCs in this endeavor. PMID:24127928

Tsunami vulnerability analysis in the coastal town of Catania, Sicily: methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano; Gallazzi, Sara; Tonini, Roberto; Zaniboni, Filippo

2010-05-01

Catania lies on the eastern coast of Sicily and is one of the most important towns in Sicily as regards history, tourism and industry. Recent analyses conducted in the frame of the project TRANSFER have shown that it is exposed not only to tsunamis generated locally, but also to distant tsunamis generated in the western Hellenic arc. In the frame of the European project SCHEMA different scenarios covering local sources such as the 11 January 1693 event and the 1908 case as well as remote sources such as the 365 AD tsunami have been explored through numerical modelling in order to assess the vulnerability of the area to tsunami attacks. One of the primary outcomes of the scenario analysis is the quantification of the inundation zones (location, extension along the coast and landward). Taking the modelling results on flooding as input data, the analysis has focussed on the geomorphological characteristics of the coasts and on the buildings and infrastructure typology to make evaluation of the vulnerability level of the Catania area. The coast to the south of the harbour of Catania is low and characterized by a mild slope: topography reaches the altitude of 10 m between 300-750 m distance from the shoreline. Building density is low, and generally tourist structures prevail on residential houses. The zone north of the harbour is high-coast, with 10 m isoline usually close to the coastline, and little possibility for flood to penetrate deep inland. Here there are three small marinas with the corresponding services and infrastructure around, and the city quarters consists of residential buildings. Vulnerability assessment has been carried out by following the methodology developed by the SCHEMA consortium, distinguishing between primary (type and material) and secondary criteria (e.g. ground, age, foundation, orientation, etc.) for buildings, and by adopting a building damage matrix, basically depending on building type and water inundation depth. Data needed for such analysis have been retrieved from satellite images such as Google and validated through ad hoc local surveys with the collaboration of the local civil protection agency.

Homeland Security Vulnerabilities Of The US National Capital Region’s Bridges

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-10

THE HOMELAND SECURITY VULNERABILITIES OF THE US NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION’S BRIDGES A thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S...AUG 2015 – JUNE 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Homeland Security Vulnerabilities of the US National Capital Region’s Bridges 5a. CONTRACT...degradation as the rest of the United States. The ground transportation infrastructure, especially the bridges , in the NCR presents an interesting case

Industrial Control Systems/SCADA systems risk assessment in the energy sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falodun, Babatunde

The energy sector is one of the most critical components of our national infrastructure. It not only provides the electrical power and petroleum required to run day-to-day operations and mechanisms in society, it's also an important element that directly impacts the economy with regard to growth and stability. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) /Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems (SCADA) are computerized mechanisms, they are both software and hardware that are used to control real time processes and operations in power plants and oil production facilities. A significant attack on these control systems that leads to widespread disruption of energy could result in catastrophic consequences for any major city and even the nation. This research paper explores cyber threats and vulnerabilities faced by ICS/SCADA systems in the energy sector and also highlights possible outcomes of a successful breach. Furthermore, the research underscores mitigation strategies that could be used to prevent and respond to an attack. Keywords: Cybersecurity, SCADA, Cyber Attacks, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Risk Assessment, Dr. Albert Orbinati.

Prevalence of cholera risk factors between migrant Haitians and Dominicans in the Dominican Republic.

PubMed

Lund, Andrea J; Keys, Hunter M; Leventhal, Stephanie; Foster, Jennifer W; Freeman, Matthew C

2015-03-01

To determine whether cholera risk factor prevalence in the Dominican Republic can be explained by nationality, independent of other factors, given the vulnerability of many Haitians in the country and the need for targeted prevention. A cross-sectional, observational household survey (103 Haitian and 260 Dominican) was completed in 18 communities in July 2012. The survey included modules for demographics, knowledge, socioeconomic status, and access to adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure. Logistic regression assessed differential access to WASH infrastructure and Poisson regression assessed differences in cholera knowledge, controlling for potential confounders. Dominican and Haitian households differed on demographic characteristics. Haitians had lower educational attainment, socioeconomic status, and less knowledge of cholera than Dominicans (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.66; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 0.55-0.81). Access to improved drinking water was low for both groups, but particularly low among rural Haitians (aOR = 0.21; 95%CI: 0.04-1.01). No differences were found in access to sanitation after adjusting for sociodemographic confounders (aOR = 1.00; 95%CI: 0.57-1.76). Urban/rural geography and socioeconomic status play a larger role in cholera risk factor prevalence than nationality, indicating that Haitians' perceived vulnerability to cholera is confounded by contextual factors. Understanding the social dynamics that lead to cholera risk can inform control strategies, leading to better targeting and the possibility of eliminating cholera from the island.

The introduction of dengue follows transportation infrastructure changes in the state of Acre, Brazil: A network-based analysis.

PubMed

Lana, Raquel Martins; Gomes, Marcelo Ferreira da Costa; Lima, Tiago França Melo de; Honório, Nildimar Alves; Codeço, Cláudia Torres

2017-11-01

Human mobility, presence and passive transportation of Aedes aegypti mosquito, and environmental characteristics are a group of factors which contribute to the success of dengue spread and establishment. To understand this process, we assess data from dengue national and municipal basins regarding population and demographics, transportation network, human mobility, and Ae. aegypti monitoring for the Brazilian state of Acre since the first recorded dengue case in the year 2000 to the year 2015. During this period, several changes in Acre's transport infrastructure and urbanization have been started. To reconstruct the process of dengue introduction in Acre, we propose an analytic framework based on concepts used in malaria literature, namely vulnerability and receptivity, to inform risk assessments in dengue-free regions as well as network theory concepts for disease invasion and propagation. We calculate the probability of dengue importation to Acre from other Brazilian states, the evolution of dengue spread between Acrean municipalities and dengue establishment in the state. Our findings suggest that the landscape changes associated with human mobility have created favorable conditions for the establishment of dengue virus transmission in Acre. The revitalization of its major roads, as well as the increased accessibility by air to and within the state, have increased dengue vulnerability. Unplanned urbanization and population growth, as observed in Acre during the period of study, contribute to ideal conditions for Ae. aegypti mosquito establishment, increase the difficulty in mosquito control and consequently its local receptivity.

The introduction of dengue follows transportation infrastructure changes in the state of Acre, Brazil: A network-based analysis

PubMed Central

de Lima, Tiago França Melo; Honório, Nildimar Alves; Codeço, Cláudia Torres

2017-01-01

Human mobility, presence and passive transportation of Aedes aegypti mosquito, and environmental characteristics are a group of factors which contribute to the success of dengue spread and establishment. To understand this process, we assess data from dengue national and municipal basins regarding population and demographics, transportation network, human mobility, and Ae. aegypti monitoring for the Brazilian state of Acre since the first recorded dengue case in the year 2000 to the year 2015. During this period, several changes in Acre’s transport infrastructure and urbanization have been started. To reconstruct the process of dengue introduction in Acre, we propose an analytic framework based on concepts used in malaria literature, namely vulnerability and receptivity, to inform risk assessments in dengue-free regions as well as network theory concepts for disease invasion and propagation. We calculate the probability of dengue importation to Acre from other Brazilian states, the evolution of dengue spread between Acrean municipalities and dengue establishment in the state. Our findings suggest that the landscape changes associated with human mobility have created favorable conditions for the establishment of dengue virus transmission in Acre. The revitalization of its major roads, as well as the increased accessibility by air to and within the state, have increased dengue vulnerability. Unplanned urbanization and population growth, as observed in Acre during the period of study, contribute to ideal conditions for Ae. aegypti mosquito establishment, increase the difficulty in mosquito control and consequently its local receptivity. PMID:29149175

PROTECTING THE NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: THE VULNERABILITY OF U.S. WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Terrorism in the United States was not considered a serious threat until the second half of the 1990s. However, recent attacks both at home and abroad have forced government planners to consider the possibility that critical elements of the U.S. infrastructure might in fact be vu...

Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

2015-12-01

Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the Gulf of Mexico, and improved the accuracy and resolution of the Probabilistic Storm Surge model.

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate vulnerability and risks of pluvial floods under changing climate: the case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Coppola, Erika; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Global climate change is expected to affect the intensity and frequency of extreme events (e.g. heat waves, drought, heavy precipitations events) leading to increasing natural disasters and damaging events (e.g. storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding) worldwide. Especially in urban areas, disasters risks can be exacerbated by changes in exposure and vulnerability patterns (i.e. urbanization, population growth) and should be addressed by adopting a multi-disciplinary approach. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrating climate and environmental sciences with bottom-up participative processes was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice in order to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on pluvial flood risk in urban areas. Based on the consecutive analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risks, the RRA methodology is a screening risk tool to identify and prioritize major elements at risk (e.g. residential, commercial areas and infrastructures) and to localize sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by flood risk due to heavy precipitation events, in the future scenario (2041-2050). From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach to select and score site-specific vulnerability factors (e.g. slope, permeability of the soil, past flooded areas) and to consider the requests and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region, by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. The main outputs of the assessment are risk and vulnerability maps and statistics aimed at increasing awareness about the potential effect of climate change on pluvial flood risks and at identifying hot-spot areas where future adaptation actions should be required to decrease physical-environmental vulnerabilities or building resilience and coping capacity of human society to climate change. The overall risk assessment methodology and the results of its application to the territory of the municipality of Venice will be here presented and discussed.

Vulnerability to Bushfires in Rural Australia: A Case Study from East Gippsland, Victoria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whittaker, Joshua; Handmer, John; Mercer, David

2012-01-01

This paper investigates the nature and causes of vulnerability to bushfires in the Wulgulmerang district of East Gippsland, Victoria, in south-eastern Australia. In 2003 bushfires devastated the small population of this isolated farming district, destroying homes, agricultural assets and public infrastructure. The fires also adversely affected the…

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

2014-11-28

Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

Vulnerability of supply basins to demand from multiple cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, J. C.; Gorelick, S.

2013-12-01

Humans have appropriated more than half of the world's available water resources, and continued population growth and climate change threaten to put increasing pressure on remaining supplies. Many cities have constructed infrastructure to collect, transport from and store water at distant locations. Supply basins can become vulnerable if there are multiple users depending on the same supply system or network. Basin vulnerability assessments often only report the impacts of local demands on system health, but rarely account future stress from multi-urban demands. This study presents a global assessment of urban impacts on supply basins. Specifically, hydrologic and regulatory information are used to quantify the level of supply basin stress created by demand from multiple cities. The aim is to identify at-risk basins. This study focuses on large urban areas (generally over 1 million people) that use surface water (n=412). The stress on supply water basins by urban demand was based on three parameters: 1) the number of cities using a basin for water supply, 2) the number of alternative urban sources (e.g. lakes, reservoirs, rivers) within the supply basin, and 3) the percent of available surface water in each basin that is required to meet the total of urban and environmental demands. The degree of management within each basin is assessed using information on federal water policies and local basin management plans.

Cyber resilience: a review of critical national infrastructure and cyber security protection measures applied in the UK and USA.

PubMed

Harrop, Wayne; Matteson, Ashley

This paper presents cyber resilience as key strand of national security. It establishes the importance of critical national infrastructure protection and the growing vicarious nature of remote, well-planned, and well executed cyber attacks on critical infrastructures. Examples of well-known historical cyber attacks are presented, and the emergence of 'internet of things' as a cyber vulnerability issue yet to be tackled is explored. The paper identifies key steps being undertaken by those responsible for detecting, deterring, and disrupting cyber attacks on critical national infrastructure in the United Kingdom and the USA.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.G.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.; Bauer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir-Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2015-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures.

PubMed

Oakes, Benjamin Donald; Mattsson, Lars-Göran; Näsman, Per; Glazunov, Andrés Alayón

2018-06-01

Modern infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on electronic systems, leaving them more vulnerable to electrical surges or electromagnetic interference. Electromagnetic disturbances appear in nature, e.g., lightning and solar wind; however, they may also be generated by man-made technology to maliciously damage or disturb electronic equipment. This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure. In the absence of available data on IEMI occurrences, we find that a systems-based risk assessment is more useful than a probabilistic approach. We therefore modify the often applied definition of risk, i.e., a set of triplets containing scenario, probability, and consequence, to a set of quadruplets: scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, and consequence. Probability is "replaced" by resource requirements and plausibility, where the former is the minimum amount and type of equipment necessary to successfully carry out an attack scenario and the latter is a subjective assessment of the extent of the existence of attackers who possess the motivation, knowledge, and resources necessary to carry out the scenario. We apply the concept of intrusion areas and classify electromagnetic source technology according to key attributes. Worst-case scenarios are identified for different quantities of attacker resources. The most plausible and consequential of these are deemed the most important scenarios and should provide useful decision support in a countermeasures effort. Finally, an example of the proposed risk assessment framework, based on notional data, is provided on a hypothetical water distribution network. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

UNESCO World Heritage Site Hallstatt: Rockfall hazard and risk assessment as basis for a sustainable land-use planning- a case study from the Eastern Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melzner, Sandra; Mölk, Michael; Schiffer, Michael; Gasperl, Wolfgang

2015-04-01

In times of decreasing financial resources, the demand for the investment in protection measures with a positive return on investment is of high importance. Hazard and risk assessments are essential tools in order to ensure an economically justifiable application of money in the implementation of preventive measures. Many areas in the Eastern Alps are recurrently affected by rockfall processes which pose a significant hazard to settlements and infrastructures. Complex tectonic, lithological and geomorphologic settings require a sufficient amount of effort to map and collect high quality data to perform a reliable hazard and risk analysis. The present work summarizes the results of a detailed hazard and risk assessment performed in a community in the Northern Calcareous Alps (Upper Austroalpine Unit). The community Hallstatt is exposed to very steep limestone cliffs, which are highly susceptible towards future, in many parts high magnitude rock failures. The analysis of the record of former events shows that since 1652 several rockfall events damaged or destroyed houses and killed or injured some people. Hallstatt as a Unesco World Heritage Site represents a very vulnerable settlement, the risk being elevated by a high frequency tourism with greater one million visitors per year. Discussion will focus on the applied methods to identify and map the rockfall hazard and risk, including a magnitude-frequency analysis of events in the past and an extrapolation in the future as well as a vulnerability analysis for the existing infrastructure under the assumed events for the determined magnitude-frequency scenarios. Furthermore challenges for a decision making in terms of a sustainable land use planning and implementation of preventive measures will be discussed.

Evaluating County-Level Heat Vulnerability and Social Inequity in the United States through Climate and Socioeconomic Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, C.

2016-12-01

Climate change will have many impacts on human health, perhaps most directly through extreme heat. High temperature and humidity combinations inhibit the body's ability to cool through physiological responses such as sweating. In conjunction with extended periods of extreme heat and shifted seasonality, these conditions are particularly dangerous. Current research and literature can be used to show where dangerous heat and humidity conditions are likely to be most prevalent, or where populations vulnerable to heat stress reside. To provide a better assessment of overall heat vulnerability, however, many complex factors, such as relative changes in temperature patterns or local socioeconomic conditions, must also be considered. Here, we utilize a multivariate approach to establish county-level risk scores by combining the most relevant indicators for heat vulnerability with climate model projections of wet bulb globe temperature, a metric useful for understanding how the human body will respond to conditions of high heat and humidity. We present our findings as an ESRI ArcOnline Story Map with data aggregated at the county-level in the continental United States. This format allows users to access maps showing each county's score in four categories related to heat vulnerability: heat and humidity hazards, population vulnerability, medical access, and physical infrastructure. A final map showcases a composite heat vulnerability score for each county, with comparisons to state and national averages. Our tool, part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, is presented as a series of maps with a normalized scoring system to provide clear and easy access to the indicators most relevant to evaluating heat vulnerability at a local level. Ultimately, this readily available tool with general indices helps community decision makers communicate heat vulnerability and identify which resilience factors are most critical to improving local resilience.

A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

2014-05-01

This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

Risk of the residents, infrastructure and water bodies by flash floods and sediment transport - assessment for scale of the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef; Bauer, Miroslav; Strouhal, Luděk; Jáchymová, Barbora; Devátý, Jan; David, Václav; Koudelka, Petr; Dočkal, Martin

2015-04-01

Pluvial and flash floods, related to massive sediment transport become phenomenon nowadays, under conditions of climate changes. Storm events, related to material damages appear at unexpected places and their effective control is only possible in form of prevention. To apply preventive measures, there have to be defined localities with reasonable reliability, which are endangered by surface runoff and sediment transport produced in the subcatchments, often at agriculturally used landscape. Classification of such localities, concerning of potential damages and magnitude of sediment transport shall be also included within the analyses, to design control measures effectively. Large scale project for whole territory of the Czech Republic (ca 80.000 km2) has therefore been granted b the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic, with the aim to define critical points, where interaction between surface runoff connected to massive sediment transport and infrastructure or vulnerable water bodies can occur and to classify them according to potential risk. Advanced GIS routines, based on analyses of land use, soil conditions and morphology had been used to determine the critical points - points, where significant surface runoff occurs and interacts with infrastructure and vulnerable water bodies, based exclusively on the contributing area - flow accumulation. In total, ca 150.000 critical points were determined within the Czech Republic. For each of critical points, its subcatchment had then been analyzed in detail, concerning of soil loss and sediment transport, using simulation model WATEM/SEDEM. The results were used for classification of potential risk of individual critical points, based on mean soil loss within subcatchment, total sediment transport trough the outlet point and subcatchment area. The classification has been done into 5 classes. The boundaries were determined by calibration survey and statistical analysis, performed at three experimental catchments area of 100 km2 each. Concentrated flow trajectory had then been analyzed trough urban areas and potential vulnerability of incident structures has been determined. Total hazard of infrastructure has been classified again into 5 categories for each individual critical point using risk matrix, combining threat and vulnerability features. Generalized control measures (changes in land-use, changes in agrotechnology, diverting linear measures or retention structures) were then introduced into mathematical model WATEM/SEDEM in number of scenarios, to allow effective design of control measures against surface runoff and sediment transport for each individual critical point. Result of the project will be public available by WEB application and shall be useful for government, local decision makers, for planning of development of communities and also optimization of effective design of flash floods control measures. The research has been supported by the research project VG20122015092.

Potential impacts of tephra fallout from a large-scale explosive eruption at Sakurajima volcano, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, S.; Todde, A.; Cioni, R.; Pistolesi, M.; Geshi, N.; Bonadonna, C.

2017-10-01

We present an exposure analysis of infrastructure and lifeline to tephra fallout for a future large-scale explosive eruption of Sakurajima volcano. An eruption scenario is identified based on the field characterization of the last subplinian eruption at Sakurajima and a review of reports of the eruptions that occurred in the past six centuries. A scenario-based probabilistic hazard assessment is performed using the Tephra2 model, considering various eruption durations to reflect complex eruptive sequences of all considered reference eruptions. A quantitative exposure analysis of infrastructures and lifelines is presented primarily using open-access data. The post-event impact assessment of Magill et al. (Earth Planets Space 65:677-698, 2013) after the 2011 VEI 2 eruption of Shinmoedake is used to discuss the vulnerability and the resilience of infrastructures during a future large eruption of Sakurajima. Results indicate a main eastward dispersal, with longer eruption durations increasing the probability of tephra accumulation in proximal areas and reducing it in distal areas. The exposure analysis reveals that 2300 km of road network, 18 km2 of urban area, and 306 km2 of agricultural land have a 50% probability of being affected by an accumulation of tephra of 1 kg/m2. A simple qualitative exposure analysis suggests that the municipalities of Kagoshima, Kanoya, and Tarumizu are the most likely to suffer impacts. Finally, the 2011 VEI 2 eruption of Shinmoedake demonstrated that the already implemented mitigation strategies have increased resilience and improved recovery of affected infrastructures. Nevertheless, the extent to which these mitigation actions will perform during the VEI 4 eruption presented here is unclear and our hazard assessment points to possible damages on the Sakurajima peninsula and the neighboring municipality of Tarumizu.

Health Effects of Coastal Storms and Flooding in Urban Areas: A Review and Vulnerability Assessment

PubMed Central

Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Matte, Thomas

2013-01-01

Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC) may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events. PMID:23818911

Health effects of coastal storms and flooding in urban areas: a review and vulnerability assessment.

PubMed

Lane, Kathryn; Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Wheeler, Katherine; Abid, Zaynah; Graber, Nathan; Matte, Thomas

2013-01-01

Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC) may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events.

Landscape Hazards in Yukon Communities: Geological Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, K.; Kinnear, L.

2010-12-01

Climate change is considered to be a significant challenge for northern communities where the effects of increased temperature and climate variability are beginning to affect infrastructure and livelihoods (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Planning for and adapting to ongoing and future changes in climate will require the identification and characterization of social, economic, cultural, political and biophysical vulnerabilities. This pilot project addresses physical landscape vulnerabilities in two communities in the Yukon Territory through community-scale landscape hazard mapping and focused investigations of community permafrost conditions. Landscape hazards are identified by combining pre-existing data from public utilities and private-sector consultants with new geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity), shallow drilling, surficial geological mapping, and permafrost characterization. Existing landscape vulnerabilities are evaluated based on their potential for hazard (low, medium or high) under current climate conditions, as well as under future climate scenarios. Detailed hazard maps and landscape characterizations for both communities will contribute to overall adaptation plans and allow for informed development, planning and mitigation of potentially threatening hazards in and around the communities.

Digital divide, biometeorological data infrastructures and human vulnerability definition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fdez-Arroyabe, Pablo; Lecha Estela, Luis; Schimt, Falko

2018-05-01

The design and implementation of any climate-related health service, nowadays, imply avoiding the digital divide as it means having access and being able to use complex technological devices, massive meteorological data, user's geographic location and biophysical information. This article presents the co-creation, in detail, of a biometeorological data infrastructure, which is a complex platform formed by multiple components: a mainframe, a biometeorological model called Pronbiomet, a relational database management system, data procedures, communication protocols, different software packages, users, datasets and a mobile application. The system produces four daily world maps of the partial density of the atmospheric oxygen and collects user feedback on their health condition. The infrastructure is shown to be a useful tool to delineate individual vulnerability to meteorological changes as one key factor in the definition of any biometeorological risk. This technological approach to study weather-related health impacts is the initial seed for the definition of biometeorological profiles of persons, and for the future development of customized climate services for users in the near future.

Digital divide, biometeorological data infrastructures and human vulnerability definition.

PubMed

Fdez-Arroyabe, Pablo; Lecha Estela, Luis; Schimt, Falko

2018-05-01

The design and implementation of any climate-related health service, nowadays, imply avoiding the digital divide as it means having access and being able to use complex technological devices, massive meteorological data, user's geographic location and biophysical information. This article presents the co-creation, in detail, of a biometeorological data infrastructure, which is a complex platform formed by multiple components: a mainframe, a biometeorological model called Pronbiomet, a relational database management system, data procedures, communication protocols, different software packages, users, datasets and a mobile application. The system produces four daily world maps of the partial density of the atmospheric oxygen and collects user feedback on their health condition. The infrastructure is shown to be a useful tool to delineate individual vulnerability to meteorological changes as one key factor in the definition of any biometeorological risk. This technological approach to study weather-related health impacts is the initial seed for the definition of biometeorological profiles of persons, and for the future development of customized climate services for users in the near future.

Digital divide, biometeorological data infrastructures and human vulnerability definition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fdez-Arroyabe, Pablo; Lecha Estela, Luis; Schimt, Falko

2017-06-01

The design and implementation of any climate-related health service, nowadays, imply avoiding the digital divide as it means having access and being able to use complex technological devices, massive meteorological data, user's geographic location and biophysical information. This article presents the co-creation, in detail, of a biometeorological data infrastructure, which is a complex platform formed by multiple components: a mainframe, a biometeorological model called Pronbiomet, a relational database management system, data procedures, communication protocols, different software packages, users, datasets and a mobile application. The system produces four daily world maps of the partial density of the atmospheric oxygen and collects user feedback on their health condition. The infrastructure is shown to be a useful tool to delineate individual vulnerability to meteorological changes as one key factor in the definition of any biometeorological risk. This technological approach to study weather-related health impacts is the initial seed for the definition of biometeorological profiles of persons, and for the future development of customized climate services for users in the near future.

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korkali, Mert; Veneman, Jason G.; Tivnan, Brian F.

Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power and communication systems, has important implications for the reliability and security of these systems. To understand the effects of power-communication coupling, several researchers have studied models of interdependent networks and reported that increased coupling can increase vulnerability. However, these conclusions come largely from models that have substantially different mechanisms of cascading failure, relative to those found in actual power and communication networks, and that do not capture the benefits of connecting systems with complementary capabilities. In order to understand the importance of these details, this paper compares network vulnerability in simplemore » topological models and in models that more accurately capture the dynamics of cascading in power systems. First, we compare a simple model of topological contagion to a model of cascading in power systems and find that the power grid model shows a higher level of vulnerability, relative to the contagion model. Second, we compare a percolation model of topological cascading in coupled networks to three different models of power networks coupled to communication systems. Again, the more accurate models suggest very different conclusions than the percolation model. In all but the most extreme case, the physics-based power grid models indicate that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability. This is opposite from what one would conclude from the percolation model, in which zero coupling is optimal. Only in an extreme case, in which communication failures immediately cause grid failures, did we find that increased coupling can be harmful. Together, these results suggest design strategies for reducing the risk of cascades in interdependent infrastructure systems.« less

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence

DOE PAGES

Korkali, Mert; Veneman, Jason G.; Tivnan, Brian F.; ...

2017-03-20

Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power and communication systems, has important implications for the reliability and security of these systems. To understand the effects of power-communication coupling, several researchers have studied models of interdependent networks and reported that increased coupling can increase vulnerability. However, these conclusions come largely from models that have substantially different mechanisms of cascading failure, relative to those found in actual power and communication networks, and that do not capture the benefits of connecting systems with complementary capabilities. In order to understand the importance of these details, this paper compares network vulnerability in simplemore » topological models and in models that more accurately capture the dynamics of cascading in power systems. First, we compare a simple model of topological contagion to a model of cascading in power systems and find that the power grid model shows a higher level of vulnerability, relative to the contagion model. Second, we compare a percolation model of topological cascading in coupled networks to three different models of power networks coupled to communication systems. Again, the more accurate models suggest very different conclusions than the percolation model. In all but the most extreme case, the physics-based power grid models indicate that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability. This is opposite from what one would conclude from the percolation model, in which zero coupling is optimal. Only in an extreme case, in which communication failures immediately cause grid failures, did we find that increased coupling can be harmful. Together, these results suggest design strategies for reducing the risk of cascades in interdependent infrastructure systems.« less

U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program—Assess, forecast, prepare, engage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stovall, Wendy K.; Wilkins, Aleeza M.; Mandeville, Charles W.; Driedger, Carolyn L.

2016-07-13

At least 170 volcanoes in 12 States and 2 territories have erupted in the past 12,000 years and have the potential to erupt again. Consequences of eruptions from U.S. volcanoes can extend far beyond the volcano’s immediate area. Many aspects of our daily life are vulnerable to volcano hazards, including air travel, regional power generation and transmission infrastructure, interstate transportation, port facilities, communications infrastructure, and public health. The U.S. Geological Survey has the Federal responsibility to issue timely warnings of potential volcanic activity to the affected populace and civil authorities. The Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) is funded to carry out that mission and does so through a combination of volcano monitoring, short-term warnings, research on how volcanoes work, and community education and outreach.

Vulnerability to the transmission of human visceral leishmaniasis in a Brazilian urban area

PubMed Central

de Toledo, Celina Roma Sánchez; de Almeida, Andréa Sobral; Chaves, Sergio Augusto de Miranda; Sabroza, Paulo Chagastelles; Toledo, Luciano Medeiros; Caldas, Jefferson Pereira

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the determinants for the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis linked to the conditions of vulnerability. METHODS This is an ecological study, whose spatial analysis unit was the Territorial Analysis Unit in Araguaína, State of Tocantins, Brazil, from 2007 to 2012. We have carried out an analysis of the sociodemographic and urban infrastructure situation of the municipality. Normalized primary indicators were calculated and used to construct the indicators of vulnerability of the social structure, household structure, and urban infrastructure. From them, we have composed a vulnerability index. Kernel density estimation was used to evaluate the density of cases of human visceral leishmaniasis, based on the coordinates of the cases. Bivariate global Moran’s I was used to verify the existence of spatial autocorrelation between the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis and the indicators and index of vulnerability. Bivariate local Moran’s I was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS We have observed a pattern of centrifugal spread of human visceral leishmaniasis in the municipality, where outbreaks of the disease have progressively reached central and peri-urban areas. There has been no correlation between higher incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis and worse living conditions. Statistically significant clusters have been observed between the incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis in both periods analyzed (2007 to 2009 and 2010 to 2012) and the indicators and index of vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS The environment in circumscribed areas helps as protection factor or increases the local vulnerability to the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis. The use of methodology that analyzes the conditions of life of the population and the spatial distribution of human visceral leishmaniasis is essential to identify the most vulnerable areas to the spread/maintenance of the disease. PMID:28513764

Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

2012-04-01

Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world. Several works have attempted to study these phenomena in order to understand their origin, causes, evolution, consequences, and magnitude of their damages, to finally propose mechanisms to protect coastal societies. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risk on coastal areas. This work -Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador-, funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, examines the state of the art and presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of tsunamis at any coastal area worldwide and applying it to the coast of El Salvador. The conceptual framework is based on the definition of Risk as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril, over a specified time period (European Commission, Schneiderbauer et al., 2004). The HAZARD assessment (Phase I of the project) is based on propagation models for earthquake-generated tsunamis, developed through the characterization of tsunamigenic sources -sismotectonic faults- and other dynamics under study -tsunami waves, sea level, etc.-. The study area is located in a high seismic activity area and has been hit by 11 tsunamis between 1859 and 1997, nine of them recorded in the twentieth century and all generated by earthquakes. Simulations of historical and potential tsunamis with greater or lesser affection to the country's coast have been performed, including distant sources, intermediate and close. Deterministic analyses of the threats under study -coastal flooding- have been carried out, resulting in different hazard maps (maximum wave height elevation, maximum water depth, minimum tsunami arrival time, maximum flooding level or "Run-up", hazard degree for people based on incipient velocity for people instability) along the coast of El Salvador and at some relevant locations (high resolution analysis). The VULNERABILITY assessment of the exposed elements (Phase II of the project) is based on an integrated approach which is essential given the complexity of coastal areas. A set of indices and indicators have been developed supported by a Geographic Information System that allows graphical representation of physical, environmental, social, economic and infrastructure characteristics of the coast. Different spatial and temporal scales have been also considered in this project to calculate the risk, since both factors would change the amount and type of exposed elements and their vulnerability. A final global RISK analysis (hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis for each dimension -human, environmental, socioeconomic and infrastructure- and both temporal and spatial scales) allows identifying weaknesses, gaps and special needs to cope with a tsunami event and, therefore, will result in a set of risk reduction measures, including adaptation and mitigation measures.

Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

2016-04-01

Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further public training for evacuation. The work is supported from PNII/PCCA 2013 Project DARING 69/2014, financed by UEFISCDI, Romania. Bureau GJ (2003) "Dams and appurtenant facilities" Earthquake Engineering Handbook, CRS Press, WF Chen, and C Scawthorn (eds.), Boca Raton, pp. 26.1-26.47. Bureau GJ and Ballentine GD (2002) "A comprehensive seismic vulnerability and loss assessment of the State of Carolina using HAZUS. Part IV: Dam inventory and vulnerability assessment methodology", 7th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, July 21-25, Boston, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA. Moldovan IA, Popescu E, Constantin A (2008), "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Romania: application for crustal seismic active zones", Romanian Journal of Physics, Vol.53, Nos. 3-4

Vulnerability to shocks in the global seafood trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gephart, Jessica A.; Rovenskaya, Elena; Dieckmann, Ulf; Pace, Michael L.; Brännström, Åke

2016-03-01

Trade can allow countries to overcome local or regional losses (shocks) to their food supply, but reliance on international food trade also exposes countries to risks from external perturbations. Countries that are nutritionally or economically dependent on international trade of a commodity may be adversely affected by such shocks. While exposure to shocks has been studied in financial markets, communication networks, and some infrastructure systems, it has received less attention in food-trade networks. Here, we develop a forward shock-propagation model to quantify how trade flows are redistributed under a range of shock scenarios and assess the food-security outcomes by comparing changes in national fish supplies to indices of each country’s nutritional fish dependency. Shock propagation and distribution among regions are modeled on a network of historical bilateral seafood trade data from UN Comtrade using 205 reporting territories grouped into 18 regions. In our model exposure to shocks increases with total imports and the number of import partners. We find that Central and West Africa are the most vulnerable to shocks, with their vulnerability increasing when a willingness-to-pay proxy is included. These findings suggest that countries can reduce their overall vulnerability to shocks by reducing reliance on imports and diversifying food sources. As international seafood trade grows, identifying these types of potential risks and vulnerabilities is important to build a more resilient food system.

Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2013-12-01

Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

Collaborative Access Control For Critical Infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baina, Amine; El Kalam, Anas Abou; Deswarte, Yves; Kaaniche, Mohamed

A critical infrastructure (CI) can fail with various degrees of severity due to physical and logical vulnerabilities. Since many interdependencies exist between CIs, failures can have dramatic consequences on the entire infrastructure. This paper focuses on threats that affect information and communication systems that constitute the critical information infrastructure (CII). A new collaborative access control framework called PolyOrBAC is proposed to address security problems that are specific to CIIs. The framework offers each organization participating in a CII the ability to collaborate with other organizations while maintaining control of its resources and internal security policy. The approach is demonstrated on a practical scenario involving the electrical power grid.

Robustness and Recovery of Lifeline Infrastructure and Ecosystem Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, U.; Ganguly, A. R.

2015-12-01

Disruptive events, both natural and man-made, can have widespread impacts on both natural systems and lifeline infrastructure networks leading to the loss of biodiversity and essential functionality, respectively. Projected sea-level rise and climate change can further increase the frequency and severity of large-scale floods on urban-coastal megacities. Nevertheless, Failure in infrastructure systems can trigger cascading impacts on dependent ecosystems, and vice-versa. An important consideration in the behavior of the isolated networks and inter-connected networks following disruptive events is their resilience, or the ability of the network to "bounce back" to a pre-disaster state. Conventional risk analysis and subsequent risk management frameworks have focused on identifying the components' vulnerability and strengthening of the isolated components to withstand these disruptions. But high interconnectedness of these systems, and evolving nature of hazards, particularly in the context of climate extremes, make the component level analysis unrealistic. In this study, we discuss the complex network-based resilience framework to understand fragility and recovery strategies for infrastructure systems impacted by climate-related hazards. We extend the proposed framework to assess the response of ecological networks to multiple species loss and design the restoration management framework to identify the most efficient restoration sequence of species, which can potentially lead to disproportionate gains in biodiversity.

Hazards and accessibility: combining and visualizing threat and open infrastructure data for disaster management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tost, Jordi; Ehmel, Fabian; Heidmann, Frank; Olen, Stephanie M.; Bookhagen, Bodo

2018-05-01

The assessment of natural hazards and risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of threat maps, which are used to depict potential danger posed by a particular hazard throughout a given area. But when a hazard event strikes, infrastructure is a significant factor that can determine if the situation becomes a disaster. The vulnerability of the population in a region does not only depend on the area's local threat, but also on the geographical accessibility of the area. This makes threat maps by themselves insufficient for supporting real-time decision-making, especially for those tasks that involve the use of the road network, such as management of relief operations, aid distribution, or planning of evacuation routes, among others. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach divided in two parts. First, data fusion of satellite-based threat data and open infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap, introducing a threat-based routing service. Second, the visualization of this data through cartographic generalization and schematization. This emphasizes critical areas along roads in a simple way and allows users to visually evaluate the impact natural hazards may have on infrastructure. We develop and illustrate this methodology with a case study of landslide threat for an area in Colombia.

Use of NARCCAP results for extremes: British Columbia case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdock, T. Q.; Eckstrand, H.; Buerger, G.; Hiebert, J.

2011-12-01

Demand for projections of extremes has arisen out of local infrastructure vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Four preliminary analyses of extremes have been undertaken in British Columbia in the past two years in collaboration with users: BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure, Engineers Canada, City of Castelgar, and Columbia Basin Trust. Projects have included analysis of extremes for stormwater management, highways, and community adaptation in different areas of the province. This need for projections of extremes has been met using an ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results from NARCCAP, in some cases supplemented by and compared to statistical downscaling. Before assessing indices of extremes, each RCM simulation in the NARCCAP ensemble driven by reanalysis (NCEP) was compared to historical observations to assess RCM skill. Next, the anomalies according to each RCM future projection were compared to those of their driving GCM to determine the "value added" by the RCMs. Selected results will be shown for several indices of extremes, including the Climdex set of indices that has been widely used elsewhere (e.g., Stardex) and specific parameters of interest defined by users. Finally, the need for threshold scaling of some indices and use of as large an ensemble as possible will be illustrated.

Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangpenchan, R.

2011-12-01

This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

Vulnerability of the Built Environment to Tsunamis - an Overview of Where We Are in 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroff, C. M.

2012-12-01

The last twenty years have seen great strides in the understanding and prediction of tsunami behavior. Though study of these disasters has always been motivated by the need to reduce casualties and damage, early work focused primarily on predicting magnitude, propagation and inundation from tsunami waves. Investigations have expanded to include a burgeoning field concentrated on the landward effects of tsunamis on communities: examining building and infrastructure vulnerability, assessing the probabilities of varying levels of damage and applying these findings to planning of land-use, development, evacuation and response. Catastrophic events of the last decade in the Indian Ocean and Japan have brought these issues to the fore and raise the question: Where are we in our understanding of vulnerability to tsunamis? What have we learned? What are the lessons that the most recent events teach us? This overview summarizes recent investigations of the vulnerability of engineered structures to damage from tsunamis - from individual buildings of various uses to larger facilities and structural systems. Examples are provided of both successes and failures in design for tsunami resistance. Vulnerability of critical infrastructure and lifelines is discussed in the context of tsunamis in Sumatra, Chile and Japan. This includes the ability of critical systems to function during and immediately after a disaster as well as the short and long term resilience of utilities, services and coastal facilities after tsunamis. Recent work on probabilistic prediction of damage and development of fragility functions is summarized for the Chile 2010 and Japan 2011 tsunamis. Finally, a commentary is presented on building vulnerability issues as they relate to land use planning, building design and codes and vertical evacuation planning.; Three views of the Oya Train Station in Miyagi Prefecture: Prior to (top), two months after (middle), and one year after (bottom) the March 11, 2011 Tohoku Japan tsunami. The top view shows the rail line, shops, residences, coastal vegetation, tourist beach and coastal slope protection. All these were damaged or destroyed in the tsunami. One year after, a sand bag barrier had been installed inland of remaining low profile shore protection at Oya Kaigan. Rail lines had not been replaced and the station building remained closed. The area remained evacuated. Power line installation and road repairs were complete. (top photo courtesy F. Imamura)

Landslide risk impact management and web services for improving resilience: the LIFE+IMAGINE project approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congi, Maria Pia; Campo, Valentina; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro

2014-05-01

The increasing damage caused by natural disasters in the last decades points out the need for interoperable added-value services to support environmental safety and human protection, by reducing vulnerability of exposed elements as well as improving the resilience of the involved communities. For this reason, to provide access to harmonized and customized data is only one of several steps towards delivering adequate support to risk assessment, reduction and management. Scope of the present work is to illustrate a methodology under development for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement an infrastructure based on web services for environmental analysis, that integrates in its own architecture specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services will be customized during the project to provide functionalities for supporting the environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure will be applied to landslide risk scenarios, to be developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. More in detail, the landslide pilot will be aimed at providing a landslide risk scenario through the implementation and analysis of: 1) a landslide inventory from available historical databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements (e.g. population, road network, residential area, cultural heritage). The pilot will be implemented in Liguria, Italy, in two different catchment areas located in the Cinque Terre National Park, characterized by a high landslide susceptibility and low resilience, being highly vulnerable to landslides induced by heavy rainfall. The landslide risk impact analysis will be calibrated taking into account the socio-economic damage caused by landslides triggered by the October 2011 meteorological event. Most of landslides affected the diffuse system of anthropogenic terraces and caused the direct disruption of the walls as well as transportation of a large amount of loose sediments along the slopes and channels as induced consequence of the event. The final target of the landslide risk assessment scenario will be to improve the knowledge and awareness on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and landslide risk in the Cinque Terre National Park to the benefit of local authorities and population. In addition, the results of the application can have a practical and positive effects for i.e. i) updating the land planning process in order to improve the resilience of local communities, ii) implementing preliminary cost-benefit analysis aimed at the definition of guidelines for sustainable landslide risk mitigation strategies, iii) suggesting a general road map for the implementation of a local adaptation plan.

AVQS: attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme for smart grid.

PubMed

Ko, Jongbin; Lim, Hyunwoo; Lee, Seokjun; Shon, Taeshik

2014-01-01

A smart grid is a large, consolidated electrical grid system that includes heterogeneous networks and systems. Based on the data, a smart grid system has a potential security threat in its network connectivity. To solve this problem, we develop and apply a novel scheme to measure the vulnerability in a smart grid domain. Vulnerability quantification can be the first step in security analysis because it can help prioritize the security problems. However, existing vulnerability quantification schemes are not suitable for smart grid because they do not consider network vulnerabilities. We propose a novel attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme using a network vulnerability score and an end-to-end security score, depending on the specific smart grid network environment to calculate the vulnerability score for a particular attack route. To evaluate the proposed approach, we derive several attack scenarios from the advanced metering infrastructure domain. The experimental results of the proposed approach and the existing common vulnerability scoring system clearly show that we need to consider network connectivity for more optimized vulnerability quantification.

Vulnerability of networks of interacting Markov chains.

PubMed

Kocarev, L; Zlatanov, N; Trajanov, D

2010-05-13

The concept of vulnerability is introduced for a model of random, dynamical interactions on networks. In this model, known as the influence model, the nodes are arranged in an arbitrary network, while the evolution of the status at a node is according to an internal Markov chain, but with transition probabilities that depend not only on the current status of that node but also on the statuses of the neighbouring nodes. Vulnerability is treated analytically and numerically for several networks with different topological structures, as well as for two real networks--the network of infrastructures and the EU power grid--identifying the most vulnerable nodes of these networks.

Integrated assessment of urban vulnerability and resilience. Case study: Targu Ocna town, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru

2015-04-01

Vulnerability assessment frequently emphasizes the internal fragility of a system in relation to a given hazard, when compared to similar systems or to a reference standard. This internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the ability to predict, to prepare for and cope with or to recover from the manifestation of a risk phenomenon. Thus, the vulnerability is highly related to resilience and adaptability. There is no single methodology for vulnerability and resilience analysis, their assessment can only be made by identifying and integrating indicators which are compatible with the analysis level and the geographic, economic and social features of a certain area. An integrated model of evaluating vulnerability and resilience capacity is being proposed in this paper for Targu Ocna, a small mining settlement in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania, that became in the last years a tourist town and acts within the surrounding territory as a dynamic local pole. Methodologically, the following steps and operations were considered: identifying potential hazards, identifying elements at risk, identifying proper indicators and integrating them in order to evaluate the general vulnerability and resilience. The inventory of elements at risk (the number of people potentially affected, residential or other functionalities buildings, roads and other infrastructure elements etc.) was made based on General Urban Plan, topographic maps (scale 1:5000), ortophotos from 2003 and 2008 and field mapping and researches. Further on, several vulnerability indicators were identified and included within the analytical approach: dependency ratio, income, quality of the habitat and technical urban facilities, environment quality showing differentiated sensitivity. Issues such as preparedness and preventive measures (priority areas within the risk prevention plans), coping ability (networks' geometry and connectivity, emergency utilities and services accessibility) and the recovering capacity (the time needed to reestablish functions after a disastrous event) were also taken into account. The selected indicators were mathematically processed (standardized and normalized) in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Then a grid with a cell size of 100 x 100 m was created in order to spatialize vulnerability indicators, that were calculated as the average vulnerability of the exposed elements in each cell. All identified indicators have been processed within a cluster analysis that permitted the identification of similar areas in terms of vulnerabilities. Finally, a general index was obtained by the integration of all vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. The results of the study could provide a reference basis to substantiate local correctly prioritized decisions for reducing vulnerability by mitigation and adaptation measures in order to avoid significant damages when risks materialise.

Performance of Oil Infrastructure during Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernier, C.; Kameshwar, S.; Padgett, J.

2017-12-01

Three major refining centers - Corpus Christi, Houston, and Beaumont/Port Arthur - were affected during Hurricane Harvey. Damage to oil infrastructure, especially aboveground storage tanks (ASTs), caused the release of more than a million gallons of hazardous chemicals in the environment. The objective of this presentation is to identify and gain a better understanding of the different damage mechanisms that occurred during Harvey in order to avoid similar failures during future hurricane events. First, a qualitative description of the damage suffered by ASTs during Hurricane Harvey is presented. Analysis of aerial imagery and incident reports indicate that almost all spills were caused by rainfall and the associated flooding. The largest spill was caused by two large ASTs that floated due to flooding in the Houston Ship Channel releasing 500,000 gallons of gasoline. The vulnerability of ASTs subjected to flooding was already well known and documented from previous storm events. In addition to flooding, Harvey also exposed the vulnerability of ASTs with external floating roof to extreme rainfall; more than 15 floating roofs sank or tilted due to rain water accumulation on them, releasing pollutants in the atmosphere. Secondly, recent fragility models developed by the authors are presented which allow structural vulnerability assessment of floating roofs during rainfall events and ASTs during flood events. The fragility models are then coupled with Harvey rainfall and flood empirical data to identify the conditions (i.e.: internal liquid height or density, drainage system design and efficiency, etc.) that could have led to the observed failures during Hurricane Harvey. Finally, the conditions causing tank failures are studied to propose mitigation measures to prevent future AST failures during severe storm, flood, or rainfall events.

Interconnectedness and interdependencies of critical infrastructures in the US economy: Implications for resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chopra, Shauhrat S.; Khanna, Vikas

2015-10-01

Natural disasters in 2011 yielded close to 55 billion in economic damages alone in the United States (US), which highlights the need to reduce impacts of such disasters or other deliberate attacks. The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) identifies a list of 16 Critical Infrastructure Sectors (CIS) whose incapacity due to disruptions would have a debilitating impact on the nation's economy. The goal of this work is to understand the implications of interdependencies among CIS on the resilience of the US economic system as a whole. We develop a framework that combines the empirical economic input-output (EIO) model with graph theory based techniques for understanding interdependencies, interconnectedness and resilience in the US economic system. By representing the US economy as a network, we are able to analyze its topology by separately looking at its unweighted and weighted forms. Topological analysis of the US EIO network suggests that it exhibits small world properties for the unweighted case, and in the weighted case, the throughput of industry sectors follows a power-law with an exponential cutoff. Implications of these topological properties are discussed in the paper. We also simulate hypothetical disruptions on CIS in order to identify industrial sectors that experience the largest economic impacts, and to quantify systemic vulnerability in economic terms. In addition, insights from community detection and hypothetical disruption scenarios help assess vulnerability of individual industrial communities to disruptions on individual CIS. These methodologies also provide insights regarding the extent of coupling between each CIS in the US EIO network. Based on our analysis, we observe that excessive interconnectedness and interdependencies of CIS results in high systemic vulnerability. This information can guide policymakers to design policies that improve resilience of economic networks, and evaluate policies that might indirectly increase coupling between CIS.

Utilizing the NASA and NOAA Joint Ocean Surface Topography Mission to Assess Patterns and Trends in Sea-Surface Height in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzgerald, S. S.; Walker, K. A.; Courtright, A. B.; Young, I. J.

2017-12-01

The United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) are home to a population of low-lying coral atolls which are extremely vulnerable to sea level rise. Coastal infrastructure like groundwater reservoirs, harbor operations, and sewage systems, as well as natural coastal features such as reefs and beach ecosystems, are most vulnerable during inundation events. These Pacific Islanders face increasing hazards as coastal flooding infiltrates freshwater resources and may even lead to displacement. The two main components of inundation include tidal fluctuations and sea level anomalies; however, low-lying atolls are also vulnerable to the additional influence of waves. This study created a climatology of significant wave height in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and incorporated this dataset with tides and sea level anomalies to create a novel approach to assessing inundation flood risk in the RMI. The risk metric was applied to the RMI as a study site with the goal of assessing wider-scale applicability across the rest of the USAPI. The inclusion of wave height and wave direction as a crucial component of the risk metric will better inform USAPI coastal-managers for future inundation events and disaster preparedness. In addition to the risk metric, a wave-rose atlas was created for decision-makers in the RMI. This study highlights the often-overlooked region of the Pacific and demonstrates the application of the risk metric to specific examples in the RMI.

Using a Social Justice and Health Framework to Assess European Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

PubMed Central

Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

2014-01-01

Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents. PMID:25464133

Can green roofs reduce urban heat stress in vulnerable urban communities: A coupled atmospheric and social modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woodruff, S.; Budhathoki, M.; Hamlet, A. F.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Chen, F.

2017-12-01

Urban areas provide organized, engineered, sociological and economical infrastructure designed to provide a high quality of life, but the implementation and management of urban infrastructure has been a continued challenge. Increasing urbanization, warming climate, as well as anthropogenic heat emissions that accompany urban development generates "stress". This rapidly increasing `urban stress' affects the sustainability of cities, making populations more vulnerable to extreme hazards, such as heat. Cities are beginning to extensively use green roofs as a potential urban heat mitigation strategy. This study explores the potential of green roofs to reduce summertime temperatures in the most vulnerable neighborhoods of the Chicago metropolitan area by combining social vulnerability indices (a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), and temperatures from mesoscale model. Numerical simulations using urbanized version the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to measure rooftop temperatures, a representative variable for exposure in this study. The WRF simulations were dynamically coupled with a green roof algorithm as a part of urban parameterization within WRF. Specifically, the study examines roof surface temperature with changing green roof fractions and how would they help reduce exposure to heat stress for vulnerable urban communities. This study shows an example of applied research that can directly benefit urban communities and be used by urban planners to evaluate mitigation strategies.

Human-Technology Centric In Cyber Security Maintenance For Digital Transformation Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Firkhan Ali Bin Hamid; Zalisham Jali, Mohd, Dr

2018-05-01

The development of the digital transformation in the organizations has become more expanding in these present and future years. This is because of the active demand to use the ICT services among all the organizations whether in the government agencies or private sectors. While digital transformation has led manufacturers to incorporate sensors and software analytics into their offerings, the same innovation has also brought pressure to offer clients more accommodating appliance deployment options. So, their needs a well plan to implement the cyber infrastructures and equipment. The cyber security play important role to ensure that the ICT components or infrastructures execute well along the organization’s business successful. This paper will present a study of security management models to guideline the security maintenance on existing cyber infrastructures. In order to perform security model for the currently existing cyber infrastructures, combination of the some security workforces and security process of extracting the security maintenance in cyber infrastructures. In the assessment, the focused on the cyber security maintenance within security models in cyber infrastructures and presented a way for the theoretical and practical analysis based on the selected security management models. Then, the proposed model does evaluation for the analysis which can be used to obtain insights into the configuration and to specify desired and undesired configurations. The implemented cyber security maintenance within security management model in a prototype and evaluated it for practical and theoretical scenarios. Furthermore, a framework model is presented which allows the evaluation of configuration changes in the agile and dynamic cyber infrastructure environments with regard to properties like vulnerabilities or expected availability. In case of a security perspective, this evaluation can be used to monitor the security levels of the configuration over its lifetime and to indicate degradations.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

2015-04-01

Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their vulnerability. Based on the projection models for the area, average temperature in Jordan is projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.6°C by 2050. These upward temperature trends are projected to continue beyond 2050. Projections for precipitation trends are projected to decrease by 16% by the year 2050. Evaporation is likely to increase due to higher temperatures. This is likely to increase the incidence of drought potential since precipitation is projected to decrease. It is concluded that the Overall vulnerability of agriculture to climate change in Jordan is high, where impacts such as drought and increased temperatures and decreased precipitation will be more pronounced. Major implications on rain fed agriculture are possible shorter growing season, increasing moisture and heat stress to field and horticultural crops and eventually low income and food insecurity. There were different impacts among studied communities, which is related to the: economic capability, local knowledge, physical infrastructure, institutional capacity, modern technology used, age group of farmers and diversification of their income.

Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2014-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

An Assessment of Vulnerability and Trade-offs of Dairy Farmers of India to Climate Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar

2017-04-01

The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will provide an important basis for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies for alarming situation and decision making for farmers to minimize the risk of dairy sector to climate variability.

Assessing hazard risk, cost of adaptation and traditional land use activities in the context of permafrost thaw in communities in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.

2015-12-01

Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation's traditional territory, are situated on highly thaw sensitive permafrost. These projects demonstrate how physical and socio-economic factors can be integrated in assessments of permafrost vulnerability to thaw, thus providing tangible, useable results that reflect community priorities and support local decision making.

A Vulnerability Index and Analysis for the Road Network of Rural Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Andreas; Stötzer, Johanna; Kubisch, Susanne; Dittrich, Andre; Keller, Sina

2017-04-01

Natural hazards impose considerable threats to the physical and socio-economic wellbeing of people, a fact, which is well understood and investigated for many regions. However, not only people are vulnerable. During the last decades, a considerable amount of literature has focussed the particular vulnerability of the critical infrastructure: for example road networks. Considering critical infrastructure, far less reliable information exists for many regions worldwide - particularly, regions outside of the so called developed world. Critical infrastructure is destroyed in many disasters, causing cascade and follow up effects, for instance, impediments during evacuation, rescue and during the resilience phase. These circumstances, which are general enough to be applied to most regions, aggravate in regions characterized by high disparities between the urban and the rural sphere. Peripheral rural areas are especially prone to get isolated due to defects of the few roads which connect them to larger urban centres (where, frequently, disaster and emergency actors are situated). The rural area of Central Chile is a appropriate example for these circumstances. It is prone to destruction by several geo-hazards and furthermore, characterized by the aforementioned disparities. Past disasters, e.g. the 1991 Cerro Hudson eruption and the 2010 Maule earthquake have led to follow up effects (e.g. farmers, being unable to evacuate their animals due to road failures in the first case, and difficultires to evacuate people from places such as Caleta Tumbes or Dichato, which are connected by just a single road only in the second). The contribution develops a methodology to investigate into the critical infrastructure of such places. It develops a remoteness index for Chile, which identifies remote, peripheral rural areas, prone to get isolated due to road network failures during disasters. The approach is graph based. It offers particular advantages for regions like rural Chile since 1. it does not require traffic flow data which do not exist, 2. identifies peripheral areas particularly well, 3. identifies both nodes (places) prone to isolation and edges (roads) critical for the connectivity of rural areas, 4. based on a mathematical structure, it implies several possible planning solutions to reduce vulnerability of the critical infrastructure and people dependent on it. The methodology is presented and elaborated theoretically. Afterwards, it is demonstrated on an actual dataset from central Chile. It is demonstrated, how the methodology can be applied to derive planning solutions for peripheral rural areas.

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-08-01

Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

Shoreline changes and Coastal Flooding impacts: South Gujarat coast (India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parihar, S. B.

2016-12-01

South Gujarat coast (India) is experiencing increased coastal inundation and erosion caused by sea-level rise affecting the population, infrastructure, and environment. The area falls under low elevation coastal zone (LEZ) and its topography of the area is also making coast highly susceptible to flooding, especially at high tides and during the rainy season. As part of studies on shoreline changes field trip carried on the coastal taluka's of South Gujarat coast i.e. Surat, Navsari and Valsad shows various temporal changes is taking place at coastal belt. There are ample of studies on coastal dynamics and impacts. The study focus on spatial temporal analysis shows the vulnerable zones covering various physical elements at risk. These coastal areas are attractive in nature for all kind of economic development and growth because of availability of the water & fertile land for house hold use, fishing and transportation. On the contrary, South Gujarat coast being tectonically active; makes this region high vulnerable for any kind of infrastructure development. The region had also witnessed loss of life and property, disruptions to transport & power and incidences of epidemics during the floods of 2006 in Surat. Coastal flooding would, under these scenarios, threaten region that are home of 370,000 approx (Census, 2011) people in seven coastal taluka's of Surat, Navsari and Valsad district. Among the people residing in the region, the most vulnerable communities are fishermen, farmer and industrial labours. The wide range of infrastructure such as roads, hospitals, schools, power plants, industries and port will also be at risk. Shoreline changes are inevitably changing the characteristics of south Gujarat coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially adverse impacts on environment and human settlements. Key words: sea level rise, LEZ, vulnerable, erosion, inundation, spatial temporal analysis, landuse changes.

Physical, social and institutional vulnerability assessment in small Alpine communities. Results of the SAMCO-ANR project in the Upper Guil Valley (French Southern Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlier, Benoit; Dujarric, Constance; Frison-Bruno, Nikita; Puissant, Anne; Lissak, Candide; Madelin, Malika; Viel, Vincent; Bétard, François; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles

2016-04-01

The Upper Guil catchment is particularly prone to hydromorphological hazards such as torrential floods, debris flows, landslides or avalanches. Following the catastrophic events of the last 60 years (1957, 1978, 2000, and 2008), some measures were taken to reduce exposure to risks (engineering works, standards of construction, rescue training…). Nevertheless, the development of urban settlement in endangered areas and the obsolescence of the existing protective measures revealed the necessity to reassess the vulnerability of the different stakes exposed to hazards and to take into account of these various component parts of the vulnerability (not only physical but also social, etc.). In addition, catastrophic events should be more frequent in the French Southern Alps, according to the last GIEC report. In the frame of the SAMCO project designed for mountain risk assessment in a context of global change, we developed a systemic approach to assess three specific components of vulnerability - physical, social and institutional - for the six municipalities of the Upper Guil catchment (Ristolas, Abriès, Aiguilles, Château-Ville-Vieille, Molines-en-Queyras and St-Véran). Physical vulnerability, which represents total potential consequences of hazards on stakes, was estimated and mapped using a GIS model based on an empirical semi-quantitative indicator, the Potential Damage Index (PDI). This index allowed us to quantify and describe both direct (physical injury, structural and functional damage on buildings, network and land cover) and indirect consequences (socio-economic impacts) induced by hazards, by combining weighted parameters (age, state, material, function, etc.) reflecting the exposure of elements at risk. At least 1890 buildings, 367 km² of land cover and 902 km of linear infrastructure were considered. To assess social and institutional vulnerability our approach was based on questionnaires (5% of the total population investigated), interviews and mental maps (80 collected) dealing with risk perception, risk memory, mitigation measures and degree of confidence in the actors of risk management. Our database provides via statistical analysis (i) a typology of endangered people (for instance, new and alone incomers without high education diploma), and (ii) a spatialization of the most vulnerable areas considering the inhabitant knowledge (hazard location, memory of past events, related destructions) and existing mitigation measures (engineering structure, evacuation plan). The most endangered areas are both located on alluvial fan and flood plain or in new housing estate (Garcine, Château Renard). These results contribute to a better assessment of the global vulnerability of the upper Queyras Region to hydrogeomorphic hazards. They could be used to help local authorities to improve and update their Emergency Action plan or their prevention plan.

44 CFR 201.4 - Standard State Mitigation Plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... State owned or operated buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified... vulnerable to damage and loss associated with hazard events. State owned or operated critical facilities...

44 CFR 201.4 - Standard State Mitigation Plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... State owned or operated buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified... vulnerable to damage and loss associated with hazard events. State owned or operated critical facilities...

Transport Traffic Analysis for Abusive Infrastructure Characterization

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-14

Introduction Abusive traffic abounds on the Internet, in the form of email, malware, vulnerability scanners, worms, denial-of-service, drive-by-downloads, scam ...insight is two-fold. First, attackers have a basic requirement to source large amounts of data, be it denial-of-service, scam -hosting, spam, or other...the network core. This paper explores the power of transport-layer traffic analysis to detect and characterize scam hosting infrastructure, including

2008 Defense Industrial Base Critical Infrastructure Protection Conference (DIB-CBIP)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-09

a cloak -and- dagger thing. It’s about computer architecture and the soundness of electronic systems." Joel Brenner, ODNI Counterintelligence Office...to support advanced network exploitation and launch attacks on the informational and physical elements of our cyber infrastructure. In order to...entities and is vulnerable to attacks and manipulation. Operations in the cyber domain have the ability to impact operations in other war-fighting

URBAN-NET: A Network-based Infrastructure Monitoring and Analysis System for Emergency Management and Public Safety

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Sangkeun; Chen, Liangzhe; Duan, Sisi

Abstract Critical Infrastructures (CIs) such as energy, water, and transportation are complex networks that are crucial for sustaining day-to-day commodity flows vital to national security, economic stability, and public safety. The nature of these CIs is such that failures caused by an extreme weather event or a man-made incident can trigger widespread cascading failures, sending ripple effects at regional or even national scales. To minimize such effects, it is critical for emergency responders to identify existing or potential vulnerabilities within CIs during such stressor events in a systematic and quantifiable manner and take appropriate mitigating actions. We present here amore » novel critical infrastructure monitoring and analysis system named URBAN-NET. The system includes a software stack and tools for monitoring CIs, pre-processing data, interconnecting multiple CI datasets as a heterogeneous network, identifying vulnerabilities through graph-based topological analysis, and predicting consequences based on what-if simulations along with visualization. As a proof-of-concept, we present several case studies to show the capabilities of our system. We also discuss remaining challenges and future work.« less

The vulnerabilities of the power-grid system: renewable microgrids as an alternative source of energy.

PubMed

Meyer, Victor; Myres, Charles; Bakshi, Nitin

2010-03-01

The objective of this paper is to analyse the vulnerabilities of current power-grid systems and to propose alternatives to using fossil fuel power generation and infrastructure solutions in the form of microgrids, particularly those from renewable energy sources. One of the key potential benefits of microgrids, apart from their inherent sustainability and ecological advantages, is increased resilience. The analysis is targeted towards the context of business process outsourcing in India. However, much of the research on vulnerabilities has been derived from the USA and as such many of the examples cite vulnerabilities in the USA and other developed economies. Nevertheless, the vulnerabilities noted are to a degree common to all grid systems, and so the analysis may be more broadly applicable.

Disaster recovery plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-01

The San Francisco Bay Area and southern California are especially vulnerable to natural and man-made disasters, : particularly earthquakes. In a major disaster, the existing transportation infrastructure is likely to incur extensive and : severe dama...

Vulnerability analysis and critical areas identification of the power systems under terrorist attacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Zhao, Mingwei; Min, Xu

2017-05-01

This paper takes central China power grid (CCPG) as an example, and analyzes the vulnerability of the power systems under terrorist attacks. To simulate the intelligence of terrorist attacks, a method of critical attack area identification according to community structures is introduced. Meanwhile, three types of vulnerability models and the corresponding vulnerability metrics are given for comparative analysis. On this basis, influence of terrorist attacks on different critical areas is studied. Identifying the vulnerability of different critical areas will be conducted. At the same time, vulnerabilities of critical areas under different tolerance parameters and different vulnerability models are acquired and compared. Results show that only a few number of vertex disruptions may cause some critical areas collapse completely, they can generate great performance losses the whole systems. Further more, the variation of vulnerability values under different scenarios is very large. Critical areas which can cause greater damage under terrorist attacks should be given priority of protection to reduce vulnerability. The proposed method can be applied to analyze the vulnerability of other infrastructure systems, they can help decision makers search mitigation action and optimum protection strategy.

AVQS: Attack Route-Based Vulnerability Quantification Scheme for Smart Grid

PubMed Central

Lim, Hyunwoo; Lee, Seokjun; Shon, Taeshik

2014-01-01

A smart grid is a large, consolidated electrical grid system that includes heterogeneous networks and systems. Based on the data, a smart grid system has a potential security threat in its network connectivity. To solve this problem, we develop and apply a novel scheme to measure the vulnerability in a smart grid domain. Vulnerability quantification can be the first step in security analysis because it can help prioritize the security problems. However, existing vulnerability quantification schemes are not suitable for smart grid because they do not consider network vulnerabilities. We propose a novel attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme using a network vulnerability score and an end-to-end security score, depending on the specific smart grid network environment to calculate the vulnerability score for a particular attack route. To evaluate the proposed approach, we derive several attack scenarios from the advanced metering infrastructure domain. The experimental results of the proposed approach and the existing common vulnerability scoring system clearly show that we need to consider network connectivity for more optimized vulnerability quantification. PMID:25152923

Beyond Flint: National Trends in Drinking Water Quality Violations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allaire, M.; Wu, H.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Ensuring safe water supply for communities across the U.S. represents an emerging challenge. Aging infrastructure, impaired source water, and strained community finances may increase vulnerability of water systems to quality violations. In the aftermath of Flint, there is a great need to assess the current state of U.S. drinking water quality. How widespread are violations? What are the spatial and temporal patterns in water quality? Which types of communities and systems are most vulnerable? This is the first national assessment of trends in drinking water quality violations across several decades. In 2015, 9% of community water systems violated health-related water quality standards. These non-compliant systems served nearly 23 million people. Thus, the challenge of providing safe drinking water extends beyond Flint and represents a nationwide concern. We use a panel dataset that includes every community water system in the United States from 1981 to 2010 to identify factors that lead to regulatory noncompliance. This study focuses on health-related violations of the Safe Drinking Water Act. Lasso regression informed selection of appropriate covariates, while logistic regressions modeled the probability of noncompliance. We find that compliance is positively associated with private ownership, purchased water supply, and greater household income. Yet, greater concentration of utility ownership and violations in prior years are associated with a higher likelihood of violation. The results suggest that purchased water contracts, which are growing among small utilities, could serve as a way to improve regulatory compliance in the future. However, persistence of violations and ownership concentration deserve attention from policymakers. Already, the EPA has begun to prioritize enforcement of persistent violators. Overall, as the revitalization of U.S. water infrastructure becomes a growing priority area, results of this study are intended to inform investment and policy.

Airborne biological hazards and urban transport infrastructure: current challenges and future directions.

PubMed

Nasir, Zaheer Ahmad; Campos, Luiza Cintra; Christie, Nicola; Colbeck, Ian

2016-08-01

Exposure to airborne biological hazards in an ever expanding urban transport infrastructure and highly diverse mobile population is of growing concern, in terms of both public health and biosecurity. The existing policies and practices on design, construction and operation of these infrastructures may have severe implications for airborne disease transmission, particularly, in the event of a pandemic or intentional release of biological of agents. This paper reviews existing knowledge on airborne disease transmission in different modes of transport, highlights the factors enhancing the vulnerability of transport infrastructures to airborne disease transmission, discusses the potential protection measures and identifies the research gaps in order to build a bioresilient transport infrastructure. The unification of security and public health research, inclusion of public health security concepts at the design and planning phase, and a holistic system approach involving all the stakeholders over the life cycle of transport infrastructure hold the key to mitigate the challenges posed by biological hazards in the twenty-first century transport infrastructure.

Observed changes and future trends in vulnerability to natural hazards for mountain communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puissant, A.; Gazo, A.; Débonnaire, N.; Moravek, A.; Aguejdad, R.; -P., Malet J.; B., Martin

2015-04-01

Since 50 years, mountain areas are affected by important landcover and landuse changes characterized by the decrease of pastoral activities, reforestation or urbanization with the development of tourism activities and infrastructures. These natural and anthropogenic transformations have an impact on the socio-economic activities but also on the exposure of the communities to natural hazards. In the context of the ANR Project SAMCO which aims at enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks, the objective of this research was to analyse landcover/use changes and to model future changes to assess the impacts of such change and to analyse trajectory of the vulnerability of mountain communities. For this research, an experiment is performed for two mountain areas of the French Alps (Barcelonnette Basin, Vars Basin). Changes in landcover and landuse are characterized over the period 1956-2010 for the two communities at two spatial scales (catchment, municipality). Four scenarios of landcover and landuse development (based on the Prelude European Project) are proposed for the period 2050 and 2100. Based on these scenarios, the evolution of vulnerability is estimated by using the Potential Damage Index method proposed by Puissant et al. (2013).

A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empirical work evaluating urban adaptation planning processes has been relatively piecemeal. Existing assessments of current experience with urban adaptation provide necessarily broad generalizations based on the available peer-reviewed literature. This paper uses a meta-analysis of U.S. cities’ current experience with urban adaptation planning drawing from 54 sources that include peer-reviewed literature, government reports, white papers, and reports published by non-governmental organizations. The analysis specifically evaluates the institutional support structures being developed for urban climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that adaptation planning is driven by a desire to reduce vulnerability and often catalyzes new collaborations and coordination mechanisms in urban governance. As a result, building capacity for urban climate change adaptation planning requires a focus not only on city governments themselves but also on the complex horizontal and vertical networks that have arisen around such efforts. Existing adaptation planning often lacks attention to equity issues, social vulnerability, and the influence of non-climatic factors on vulnerability. Engaging city govern

A Preliminary Tsunami vulnerability analysis for Bakirkoy district in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, M.; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

2016-04-01

Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis has major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas under extreme events has major importance for preparedness and development of mitigation strategies. The Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes as well as associated tsunamis. There are variety of coastal facilities such as ports, small craft harbors, and terminals for maritime transportation, water front roads and business centers mainly at North Coast of Marmara Sea in megacity Istanbul. A detailed vulnerability analysis for Yenikapi region and a detailed resilience analysis for Haydarpasa port in Istanbul have been studied in previously by Cankaya et al., (2015) and Aytore et al., (2015) in SATREPS project. In this study, the methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack given in Cankaya et al., (2015) is modified and applied to Bakirkoy district of Istanbul. Bakirkoy district is located at western part of Istanbul and faces to the North Coast of Marmara Sea from 28.77oE to 28.89oE. High resolution spatial dataset of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed. The bathymetry and topography database and the spatial dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the district are collated and utilized for tsunami numerical modeling and following vulnerability analysis. The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability assessment parameters in the district according to vulnerability and resilience are defined; and scored by implementation of a GIS based TVA with appropriate MCDA methods. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and TVA results at every location in Bakirkoy district. The preliminary results are presented and discussed. Acknowledgements: Partial support by Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region in (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAP-C-12-14 project of AFAD, Turkey, 108Y227, 113M556, 213M534 projects of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are acknowledged.

Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector.

PubMed

Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William

2007-04-11

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors: Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing sector. This method was developed through the cooperation of the many organizations and the individuals involved from the chemical sector RAMCAP development activities. The RAMCAP SVA method is intended to provide a common basis for making vulnerability assessments and risk-based decisions for homeland security. Mr. Moore serves as the coordinator for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and LNG sectors for the RAMCAP project and Dr. Jones is the chief technology officer for ASME-ITI, LLC for RAMCAP.

Attenuation of Storm Surge Flooding By Wetlands in the Chesapeake Bay: An Integrated Geospatial Framework Evaluating Impacts to Critical Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, A.; Haddad, J.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

2014-12-01

Areas along the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries are extremely vulnerable to hurricane flooding, as evidenced by the costly effects and severe impacts of recent storms along the Virginia coast, such as Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Coastal wetlands, in addition to their ecological importance, are expected to mitigate the impact of storm surge by acting as a natural protection against hurricane flooding. Quantifying such interactions helps to provide a sound scientific basis to support planning and decision making. Using storm surge flooding from various historical hurricanes, simulated using a coupled hydrodynamic wave model (ADCIRC-SWAN), we propose an integrated framework yielding a geospatial identification of the capacity of Chesapeake Bay wetlands to protect critical infrastructure. Spatial identification of Chesapeake Bay wetlands is derived from the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), and the Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP). Inventories of population and critical infrastructure are extracted from US Census block data and FEMA's HAZUS-Multi Hazard geodatabase. Geospatial and statistical analyses are carried out to develop a relationship between wetland land cover, hurricane flooding, population and infrastructure vulnerability. These analyses result in the identification and quantification of populations and infrastructure in flooded areas that lie within a reasonable buffer surrounding the identified wetlands. Our analysis thus produces a spatial perspective on the potential for wetlands to attenuate hurricane flood impacts in critical areas. Statistical analysis will support hypothesis testing to evaluate the benefits of wetlands from a flooding and storm-surge attenuation perspective. Results from geospatial analysis are used to identify where interactions with critical infrastructure are relevant in the Chesapeake Bay.

Remote sensing of multimodal transportation systems : research brief.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-09-01

Remote Sensing of Multimodal Transportation Systems : Rapid condition monitoring and performance evaluations of the vast and vulnerable transportation infrastructure has been elusive. The framework and models developed in this research will enable th...

Agroterrorism: where are we in the ongoing war on terrorism?

PubMed

Crutchley, Tamara M; Rodgers, Joel B; Whiteside, Heustis P; Vanier, Marty; Terndrup, Thomas E

2007-03-01

The U.S. agricultural infrastructure is one of the most productive and efficient food-producing systems in the world. Many of the characteristics that contribute to its high productivity and efficiency also make this infrastructure extremely vulnerable to a terrorist attack by a biological weapon. Several experts have repeatedly stated that taking advantage of these vulnerabilities would not require a significant undertaking and that the nation's agricultural infrastructure remains highly vulnerable. As a result of continuing criticism, many initiatives at all levels of government and within the private sector have been undertaken to improve our ability to detect and respond to an agroterrorist attack. However, outbreaks, such as the 1999 West Nile outbreak, the 2001 anthrax attacks, the 2003 monkeypox outbreak, and the 2004 Escherichia coli O157:H7 outbreak, have demonstrated the need for improvements in the areas of communication, emergency response and surveillance efforts, and education for all levels of government, the agricultural community, and the private sector. We recommend establishing an interdisciplinary advisory group that consists of experts from public health, human health, and animal health communities to prioritize improvement efforts in these areas. The primary objective of this group would include establishing communication, surveillance, and education benchmarks to determine current weaknesses in preparedness and activities designed to mitigate weaknesses. We also recommend broader utilization of current food and agricultural preparedness guidelines, such as those developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Exposure and vulnerability assessment of buildings extracted from lidar derived datasets in Bucao River floodplains, Zambales, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz-Alberto, Annie Melinda; Ramos, Gloria N.; Espiritu, Jo Adrianne; Mapanao, Kathrina M.; Lao, Ranilo B.

2017-09-01

The Philippines has a geographic and geological setting that make it prone to various hazards including weather and climate-related. It is usually strongly affected by monsoon and typhoon occurrences that cause floods due to torrential rains that causes great risks in man's life and properties, resulting in a significant national loss. Strategies for disaster prevention to protect human lives, properties and social infrastructure is therefore necessary. Different important parameters in disaster risk management such as earth observations, Light Detection and Ranging and Geographic Information System were integrated and utilized in this study. This study dealt with mapping and assessment of buildings that might possibly be exposed and vulnerable to flooding based on the simulated flood maps at different rainfall scenarios in Bucao River Basin. The assessment was done through GIS overlay analysis of the CLSU PHIL-LiDAR 1 Project outputs, the 3D building GIS database and flood hazard maps. Results of this study were series of maps with statistics at different rainfall scenarios. From 23,097 building features extracted, 10,118 buildings, 4,258 buildings and 7,433 buildings were the identified highest number of buildings exposed to flooding and a total of 2,427 buildings, 3,914 buildings and 7,204 buildings from the exposed were identified that had high vulnerabilities in terms of height at low, medium and high hazards of 100 year return period, respectively. Through these maps, it is easier to disseminate information that is more realistic to the residents about the hazardous areas and to help them act on warning and evacuating measures.

Vulnerability of Concentrated Critical Infrastructure: Background and Policy Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-26

absenteeism among workers during the peak weeks of a regional outbreak.26 Concentrations of livestock may be similarly vulnerable to infectious disease...Turning Capital to Wealth: A Ranking of U.S. Utilities.” Public Utilities Fortnightly. Dec. 1999. 43 M. Singer, and K. Turnipseed, “ Curing Capital...careful and complex CRS-18 64 R.C. Mireles, “A Cure for West Coast Congestion.” Logistics Today. Jan. 2005. 65 Congressional Budget Office (CBO

Mapping wildfire vulnerability in Mediterranean Europe. Testing a stepwise approach for operational purposes.

PubMed

Oliveira, Sandra; Félix, Fernando; Nunes, Adélia; Lourenço, Luciano; Laneve, Giovanni; Sebastián-López, Ana

2018-01-15

Vulnerability assessment is a vital component of wildfire management. This research focused on the development of a framework to measure and map vulnerability levels in several areas within Mediterranean Europe, where wildfires are a major concern. The framework followed a stepwise approach to evaluate its main components, expressed by exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. Data on population density, fuel types, protected areas location, roads infrastructure and surveillance activities, among others, were integrated to create composite indices, representing each component and articulated in multiple dimensions. Maps were created for several test areas, in northwest Portugal, southwest Sardinia in Italy and northeast Corsica in France, with the contribution of local participants from civil protection institutions and forest services. Results showed the influence of fuel sensitivity levels, population distribution and protected areas coverage for the overall vulnerability classes. Reasonable levels of accuracy were found on the maps provided through the validation procedure, with an overall match above 72% for the several sites. The systematic and flexible approach applied allowed for adjustments to local circumstances with regards to data availability and fire management procedures, without compromising its consistency and with substantial operational capabilities. The results obtained and the positive feedback of end-users encourage its further application, as a means to improve wildfire management strategies at multiple levels with the latest scientific outputs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptation of a pattern-scaling approach for assessment of local (village/valley) scale water resources and related vulnerabilities in the Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, Nathan; Kilsby, Chris G.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Archer, David R.

2010-05-01

The water resources of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are of the utmost importance to the economic wellbeing of Pakistan. The irrigated agriculture made possible by Indus river runoff underpins the food security for Pakistan's nearly 200 million people. Contributions from hydropower account for more than one fifth of peak installed electrical generating capacity in a country where widespread, prolonged load-shedding handicaps business activity and industrial development. Pakistan's further socio-economic development thus depends largely on optimisation of its precious water resources. Confident, accurate seasonal predictions of water resource availability coupled with sound understanding of interannual variability are urgent insights needed by development planners and infrastructure managers at all levels. This study focuses on the challenge of providing meaningful quantitative information at the village/valley scale in the upper reaches of the UIB. Proceeding by progressive reductions in scale, the typology of the observed UIB hydrological regimes -- glacial, nival and pluvial -- are examined with special emphasis on interannual variability for individual seasons. Variations in discharge (runoff) are compared to observations of climate parameters (temperature, precipitation) and available spatial data (elevation, snow cover and snow-water-equivalent). The first scale presented is composed of the large-scale, long-record gauged UIB tributary basins. The Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has maintained these stations for several decades in order to monitor seasonal flows and accumulate data for design of further infrastructure. Data from basins defined by five gauging stations on the Indus, Hunza, Gilgit and Astore rivers are examined. The second scale presented is a set of smaller gauged headwater catchments with short records. These gauges were installed by WAPDA and its partners amongst the international development agencies to assess potential sites for medium-scale infrastructure projects. These catchments are placed in their context within the hydrological regime classification using the spatial data and (remote sensing) observations as well as river gauging measurements. The study assesses the degree of similarity with the larger basins of the same hydrological regime. This assessment focuses on the measured response to observed climate variable anomalies. The smallest scale considered is comprised of a number of case studies at the ungauged village/valley scale. These examples are based on the delineation of areas to which specific communities (villages) have customary (riparian) water rights. These examples were suggested by non-governmental organisations working on grassroots economic development initiatives and small-scale infrastructure projects in the region. The direct observations available for these subcatchments are limited to spatial data (elevation, snow parameters). The challenge at this level is to accurately extrapolate areal values (precipitation, temperature, runoff) from point observations at the basin scale. The study assesses both the degree of similarity in the distribution of spatial parameters to the larger gauged basins and the interannual variability (spatial heterogeneity) of remotely-sensed snow cover and snow-water-equivalent at this subcatchment scale. Based upon the characterisation of spatial and interannual variability at these three spatial scales, the challenges facing local water resource managers and infrastructure operators are enumerated. Local vulnerabilities include, but are not limited to, varying thresholds in irrigation water requirements based on crop-type, minimum base flows for micro-hydropower generation during winter (high load) months and relatively small but growing demand for domestic water usage. In conclusion the study posits potential strategies for managing interannual variability and potential emerging trends. Suggested strategies are guided by the principles of low-risk adaptation, participative decision making and local capacity building.

RiskScape Volcano: Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligne, Natalia; King, Andrew; Jolly, Gill; Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Tom; Lindsay, Jan

2013-04-01

RiskScape is a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand that models the risk and impact of various natural hazards on a given built environment. RiskScape has a modular structure: the hazard module models hazard exposure (e.g., ash thickness at a given location), the asset module catalogues assets (built environment, infrastructure, and people) and their attributes exposed to the hazard, and the vulnerability module models the consequences of asset exposure to the hazard. Hazards presently included in RiskScape are earthquakes, river floods, tsunamis, windstorms, and ash from volcanic eruptions (specifically from Ruapehu). Here we present our framework for incorporating other volcanic hazards (e.g., pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, lahars, ground deformation) into RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability. We also will discuss the challenges of evaluating risk for 'point source' (e.g., stratovolcanoes) vs 'diffuse' (e.g., volcanic fields) volcanism using Ruapehu and the Auckland volcanic field as examples. Once operational, RiskScape Volcano will be a valuable resource both in New Zealand and internationally as a practical tool for evaluating risk and also as an example for how to predict the consequences of volcanic eruptions on both rural and urban environments.

Multi-level significance of vulnerability indicators. Case study: Eastern Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanga, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment aims, most frequently, to emphasize internal fragility of a system comparing to a reference standard, to similar systems or in relation to a given hazard. Internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the capacity to predict, to prepare for, to cope with or to recover from a disaster. Thus, vulnerability is linked to resilience and adaptive capacity. From local level to global one, vulnerability factors and corresponding indicators are different and their significance must be tested and validated in a well-structured conceptual and methodological framework. In this paper, the authors aim to show the real vulnerability of rural settlements in Eastern Romania in a multi-level approach. The research area, Tutova Hills, counts about 3421 sq.km and more than 200.000 inhabitants in 421 villages characterized by deficient accessibility, lack of endowments, subsistential agriculture, high pressure on natural environment (especially on forest and soil resources), poverty and aging process of population. Factors that could influence the vulnerability of these rural settlements have been inventoried and assigned into groups through a cluster analysis: habitat and technical urban facilities, infrastructure, economical, social and demographical indicators, environment quality, management of emergency situations etc. Firstly, the main difficulty was to convert qualitative variable in quantitative indicators and to standardize all values to make possible mathematical and statistical processing of data. Secondly, the great variability of vulnerability factors, their different measuring units and their high amplitude of variation require different method of standardization in order to obtain values between zero (minimum vulnerability) and one (maximum vulnerability). Final vulnerability indicators were selected and integrated in a general scheme, according to their significance resulted from an appropriate factor analysis: linear and logistic regression, varimax rotation, multiple-criteria decision analysis, weight of evidence, multi-criteria evaluation method etc. The approach started from the local level which allows a functional and structural analysis and was progressively translated to an upper level and to a spatial analysis. The model shows that changing the level of analysis diminishes the functional significance of some indicators and increases the capacity of discretization in the case of others, highlighting the spatial and functional complexity of vulnerability.

Data gaps in evidence-based research on small water enterprises in developing countries.

PubMed

Opryszko, Melissa C; Huang, Haiou; Soderlund, Kurt; Schwab, Kellogg J

2009-12-01

Small water enterprises (SWEs) are water delivery operations that predominantly provide water at the community level. SWEs operate beyond the reach of piped water systems, selling water to households throughout the world. Their ubiquity in the developing world and access to vulnerable populations suggests that these small-scale water vendors may prove valuable in improving potable water availability. This paper assesses the current literature on SWEs to evaluate previous studies and determine gaps in the evidence base. Piped systems and point-of-use products were not included in this assessment. Results indicate that SWES are active in urban, peri-urban and rural areas of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Benefits of SWEs include: no upfront connection fees; demand-driven and flexible to local conditions; and service to large populations without high costs of utility infrastructure. Disadvantages of SWEs include: higher charges for water per unit of volume compared with infrastructure-based utilities; lack of regulation; operation often outside legal structures; no water quality monitoring; increased potential for conflict with local utilities; and potential for extortion by local officials. No rigorous, evidence-based, peer-reviewed scientific studies that control for confounders examining the effectiveness of SWEs in providing potable water were identified.

Vulnerability-based evaluation of water supply design under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umit Taner, Mehmet; Ray, Patrick; Brown, Casey

2015-04-01

Long-lived water supply infrastructures are strategic investments in the developing world, serving the purpose of balancing water deficits compounded by both population growth and socio-economic development. Robust infrastructure design under climate change is compelling, and often addressed by focusing on the outcomes of climate model projections ('scenario-led' planning), or by identifying design options that are less vulnerable to a wide range of plausible futures ('vulnerability-based' planning). Decision-Scaling framework combines these two approaches by first applying a climate stress test on the system to explore vulnerabilities across many traces of the future, and then employing climate projections to inform the decision-making process. In this work, we develop decision scaling's nascent risk management concepts further, directing actions on vulnerabilities identified during the climate stress test. In the process, we present a new way to inform climate vulnerability space using climate projections, and demonstrate the use of multiple decision criteria to guide to a final design recommendation. The concepts are demonstrated for a water supply project in the Mombasa Province of Kenya, planned to provide domestic and irrigation supply. Six storage design capacities (from 40 to 140 million cubic meters) are explored through a stress test, under a large number climate traces representing both natural climate variability and plausible climate changes. Design outcomes are simulated over a 40-year planning period with a coupled hydrologic-water resources systems model and using standard reservoir operation rules. Resulting performance is expressed in terms of water supply reliability and economic efficiency. Ensemble climate projections are used for assigning conditional likelihoods to the climate traces using a statistical distance measure. The final design recommendations are presented and discussed for the decision criteria of expected regret, satisficing, and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).

Risk Mitigation for Highway and Railway Bridges

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-02-01

Performance of the transportation network strongly depends on the performance of bridges. Bridges constitute a vital part of the transportation infrastructure system and they are vulnerable to extreme events such as natural disasters (i.e., hurricane...

Aviation security : terrorist acts illustrate severe weaknesses in aviation security

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-09-20

This is the statement of Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues before the Subcommittee on Transportation, Senate and House Committees on Appropriations regarding vulnerabilities to terrorist attacks of the nation's aviation s...

The National Plan for Research and Development In Support of Critical Infrastructure Protection

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

vulnerabilities and highlight areas for improvement. As part of this effort, CIP &CP has cre- ated a research and development agenda aimed at improving...Infrastructure Protection Research and Development Plan 13 LONG-TERM DIRECTION PROVIDED BY THE CIP R&D PLAN The creation of a national critical...Research and Development Plan 20 Mapping to Other National R&D Plans The many R&D plans outside the direct context of CIP underway within DHS, other

Vulnerability of Population and Transportation Infrastructure at the East Bank of Delaware Bay Due to Coastal Flooding in Sea-Level Rise Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-30

resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional...shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic... ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine

Developing a vulnerability index for assessing riverbank erosion in large catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regan, Siôn; Smith, Hugh

2017-04-01

Riverbank erosion is a natural process involved in floodplain development, but can have negative impacts such as excessive sediment supply to the river channel, undermining infrastructure and eroding valuable agricultural land. Catchment managers often work with limited budgets and for remediation efforts to be the most effective they should be targeted in areas that are at the highest risk of suffering excessive riverbank erosion. Recent developments in high resolution spatial data capture, such as aerial LiDAR have allowed for much more detailed representation of the riparian area, including the channel location and riparian vegetation. This presentation will propose a new dimensionless index that has been developed to identify and rank sections of river channel according to erosion vulnerability. The index combines information on channel position, slope and curvature extracted from LiDAR-derived DEMs with riparian vegetation cover. It also accounts for the extent of lateral confinement limiting erosion and bank silt-clay composition influencing erodibility. The index is designed to be applied to alluvial channels across large catchments (>500 km2) to support the identification riverbank erosion 'hotspots' at the reach scale (approximating 50-200 m intervals). The performance of the vulnerability index in discriminating actively eroding and non-eroding channel reaches was assessed in the River Lugg catchment, UK. Historic mapping and aerial photographs were used to determine the channel position, slope and riparian vegetation coverage in the 1960s. The index was then calculated for the historic river channel position and compared with ranked metrics of lateral channel change that occurred between the 1960s and present. This approach provides a basis for evaluating the utility of a simple vulnerability index that could be used for prioritising the location of future investments to reduce excessive riverbank erosion in large catchments.

Explorations Around "Graceful Failure" in Transportation Infrastructure: Lessons Learned By the Infrastructure and Climate Network (ICNet)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, J. M.; Thomas, N.; Mo, W.; Kirshen, P. H.; Douglas, E. M.; Daniel, J.; Bell, E.; Friess, L.; Mallick, R.; Kartez, J.; Hayhoe, K.; Croope, S.

2014-12-01

Recent events have demonstrated that the United States' transportation infrastructure is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events which will likely increase in the future. In light of the 60% shortfall of the $900 billion investment needed over the next five years to maintain this aging infrastructure, hardening of all infrastructures is unlikely. Alternative strategies are needed to ensure that critical aspects of the transportation network are maintained during climate extremes. Preliminary concepts around multi-tier service expectations of bridges and roads with reference to network capacity will be presented. Drawing from recent flooding events across the U.S., specific examples for roads/pavement will be used to illustrate impacts, disruptions, and trade-offs between performance during events and subsequent damage. This talk will also address policy and cultural norms within the civil engineering practice that will likely challenge the application of graceful failure pathways during extreme events.

Reliable Communication Models in Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Sangkeun; Chinthavali, Supriya; Shankar, Mallikarjun

Modern critical infrastructure networks are becoming increasingly interdependent where the failures in one network may cascade to other dependent networks, causing severe widespread national-scale failures. A number of previous efforts have been made to analyze the resiliency and robustness of interdependent networks based on different models. However, communication network, which plays an important role in today's infrastructures to detect and handle failures, has attracted little attention in the interdependency studies, and no previous models have captured enough practical features in the critical infrastructure networks. In this paper, we study the interdependencies between communication network and other kinds of critical infrastructuremore » networks with an aim to identify vulnerable components and design resilient communication networks. We propose several interdependency models that systematically capture various features and dynamics of failures spreading in critical infrastructure networks. We also discuss several research challenges in building reliable communication solutions to handle failures in these models.« less

Climate Vulnerability of Hydro-power infrastructure in the Eastern African Power Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridharan, Vignesh

2017-04-01

At present there is around 6000 MW of installed hydropower capacity in the Eastern African power pool (EAPP)[1]. With countries aggressively planning to achieve the Sustainable development goal (SDG) of ensuring access to affordable electricity for all, a three-fold increase in hydropower capacity is expected by 2040 [1]. Most of the existing and planned infrastructure lie inside the Nile River Basin. The latest assessment report (AR 5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates a high level of climatic uncertainty in the Nile Basin. The Climate Moisture index (CMI) for the Eastern Nile region and the Nile Equatorial lakes varies significantly across the different General Circulation Models (GCM)[2]. Such high uncertainty casts a shadow on the plans to expand hydropower capacity, doubting whether hydropower expansion can contribute to the goal of improving access to electricity or end up as sunk investments. In this assessment, we analyze adaptation strategies for national energy systems in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), which minimize the regret that could potentially arise from impacts of a changed climate. An energy systems model of the EAPP is developed representing national electricity supply infrastructure. Cross border transmission and hydropower infrastructure is defined at individual project level. The energy systems model is coupled with a water systems management model of the Nile River Basin that calculates the water availability at different hydropower infrastructures under a range of climate scenarios. The results suggest that a robust adaptation strategy consisting of investments in cross border electricity transmission infrastructure and diversifying sources of electricity supply will require additional investments of USD 4.2 billion by 2050. However, this leads to fuel and operational cost savings of up to USD 22.6 billion, depending on the climate scenario. [1] "Platts, 2016. World Electric Power Plants Database," World Electric Power Plants Database. [Online]. Available: http://www.platts.com/Products/worldelectricpowerplantsdatabase. [Accessed: 01-Mar-2016]. [2] Brent Boehlert, Kenneth M. Strzepek, David Groves, and Bruce Hewitson, Chris Jack, "Climate Change Projections in Africa-Chapter 3," in Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure : The Power and Water Sectors, Washington DC: The World Bank, 2016, p. 219.

Road infrastructure resilience to tsunami in Cilegon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arini, Srikandi Wahyu; Sumabrata, Jachrizal

2017-11-01

Indonesia is vulnerable to natural disasters. The highest number of natural disaster occurs on the west side of Java Island with the tsunami as the most deadly. Cilegon, a densely populated city with high industrial activity is located on the west coast of Java Island with a gently sloping topography, hence it is vulnerable to tsunami. Simulations conducted by the National Disaster Management Authority indicates that earthquakes with epicenters in the Sunda strait will cause tsunamis which can sweep away the whole industrial area in one hour. The availability of evacuation routes which can accommodate the evacuation of large numbers of people within a short time is required. Road infrastructure resilience is essential to support the performance of the evacuation routes. Poor network resilience will reduce mobility and accessibility during the evacuation. The objectives of this paper are to analyze the impact of the earthquake-generated tsunami on the evacuation routes and to simulate and analyze the performance of existing evacuation routes in Cilegon. The limitations of the modeling approaches including the current and future challenges in evacuation transport research and its applications are also discussed. The conclusion from this study is accurate data source are needed to build a more representative model and predict the areas susceptible to tsunamis vulnerable areas and to construct cogent tsunami mitigation plans and actions for the most vulnerable areas.

Heterogeneous Data Fusion Methods for Disaster Risk Assessment using Grid Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2014-05-01

In recent years, a risk-oriented approach to manage disasters has been adopted. Risk is a function of two arguments: hazard probability and vulnerability [1]. In order to assess flood risk, for example, aggregation of heterogeneous data acquired from multiple sources is required. Outputs from hydrological and hydraulic models make it possible to predict floods; in situ observations such as river level and flows are used for early warning and models calibration. Remote sensing observations can be effectively used for rapid mapping in case of emergencies, and can be assimilated into models. One point that is mutual for all datasets is their geospatial nature. In order to enable operational assessment of disaster risk, appropriate technology is necessary. In this paper we discuss different strategies to heterogeneous data fusion and show their application in the domain of disaster monitoring and risk assessment. In particular, two case-studies are presented. The first one focuses on the use of time-series of satellite imagery to flood hazard mapping and flood risk assessment. Flooded areas are extracted from satellite images to generate a maximum flood extent image for each flood event. These maps are fused to determine relative frequency of inundation (RFI) [2]. The RFI values are compared to relative water depth generated from the LISFLOOD-FP model. The model is calibrated against the satellite-derived flood extent. The model with different combinations of Manning's parameters was run in the Grid environment at Space Research Institute NASU-SSAU [3], and the optimal set of parameters was found. It is shown that RFI and water depth exhibit the same probabilistic distribution which is confirmed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Therefore, it justifies the use of RFI values for risk assessment. The second case-study deals with quantitative estimation of drought risk in Ukraine based on satellite data. Drought hazard mapping is performed based on the use of vegetation health index (VHI) derived from NOAA satellites, and the extreme value theory techniques. Drought vulnerability is assessed by estimating the crop areas and crop yield to quantify potential impact of a drought on crop production. Finally, drought hazard and vulnerability maps are fused to derive a drought risk map. [1] N.N. Kussul, B.V. Sokolov, Y.I. Zyelyk, V.A. Zelentsov, S.V. Skakun, and A.Yu. Shelestov, "Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Heterogeneous Geospatial Information," J. of Autom. and Inf. Sci., 42(12), pp. 32-45, 2010. [2] S. Skakun, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, and O. Kussul, "Flood Hazard and Flood Risk Assessment Using a Time Series of Satellite Images: A Case Study in Namibia," Risk Analysis, 2013, doi: 10.1111/risa.12156. [3] L. Hluchy, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, Y. Gripich, P. Kopp, E. Lupian, "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334, 2010.

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aliaga, B.; Hettiarachchi, S.; González, M.; Medina, R.

2014-12-01

After several tsunami events with disastrous consequences around the world, coastal countries have realized the need to be prepared to minimize human mortality and damage to coastal infrastructures, livelihoods and resources. The international scientific community is striving to develop and validate methodologies for tsunami hazard and vulnerability and risk assessments. The vulnerability of coastal communities is usually assessed through the definition of sets of indicators based on previous literature and/or post-tsunami reports, as well as on the available data for the study site. The aim of this work is to validate in light of past tsunami events the indicators currently proposed by the scientific community to measure human vulnerability, to improve their definition and selection as well as to analyse their validity for different country development profiles. The events analyzed are the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami, the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2009 Samoan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The results obtained highlight the need for considering both permanent and temporal human exposure, the former requiring some hazard numerical modelling while the latter is related to site-specific livelihoods, cultural traditions and gender roles. The most vulnerable age groups are the elderly adults and the children, the former having much higher mortality rates. Female mortality is not always higher than male and not always related to dependency issues. Higher numbers of disabled people do not always translate into higher numbers of victims. Besides, it is clear that mortality is not only related to the characteristics of the population but also the buildings. A high correlation has been found between the affected buildings and the number of victims, being very high for completely damaged buildings. Distance to the sea, building materials and expected water depths are highly determining factors regarding the type of damage in buildings.

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aliaga, B.; Hettiarachchi, S.; González, M.; Medina, R.

2015-07-01

After several tsunami events with disastrous consequences around the world, coastal countries have realized the need to be prepared to minimize human mortality and damage to coastal infrastructures, livelihoods and resources. The international scientific community is striving to develop and validate methodologies for tsunami hazard and vulnerability and risk assessments. The vulnerability of coastal communities is usually assessed through the definition of sets of indicators based on previous literature and/or post-tsunami reports, as well as on the available data for the study site. The aim of this work is to validate, in light of past tsunami events, the indicators currently proposed by the scientific community to measure human vulnerability, to improve their definition and selection as well as to analyse their validity for different country development profiles. The events analysed are the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami, the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2009 Samoan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The results obtained highlight the need for considering both permanent and temporal human exposure, the former requiring some hazard numerical modelling, while the latter is related to site-specific livelihoods, cultural traditions and gender roles. The most vulnerable age groups are the elderly and children, the former having much higher mortality rates. Female mortality is not always higher than male mortality and not always related to dependency issues. Higher numbers of disabled people do not always translate into higher numbers of victims. Besides, it is clear that mortality is not only related to the characteristics of the population but also of the buildings. A high correlation has been found between the affected buildings and the number of victims, being very high for completely damaged buildings. Distance to the sea, building materials and expected water depths are important determining factors regarding the type of damage to buildings.

Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Thomas M.; Stewart, Carol; Sword-Daniels, Victoria; Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Cole, Jim W.; Wardman, Johnny; Wilson, Grant; Barnard, Scott T.

2012-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Although phenomena such as pyroclastic flows and surges, sector collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are the most destructive and dangerous, volcanic ash is by far the most widely distributed eruption product. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life directly, threats to public health and disruption to critical infrastructure services, aviation and primary production can lead to significant societal impacts. Even relatively small eruptions can cause widespread disruption, damage and economic loss. Volcanic eruptions are, in general, infrequent and somewhat exotic occurrences, and consequently in many parts of the world, the management of critical infrastructure during volcanic crises can be improved with greater knowledge of the likely impacts. This article presents an overview of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure, other than aviation and fuel supply, illustrated by findings from impact assessment reconnaissance trips carried out to a wide range of locations worldwide by our international research group and local collaborators. ‘Critical infrastructure’ includes those assets, frequently taken for granted, which are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. Electricity networks are very vulnerable to disruption from volcanic ash falls. This is particularly the case when fine ash is erupted because it has a greater tendency to adhere to line and substation insulators, where it can cause flashover (unintended electrical discharge) which can in turn cause widespread and disruptive outages. Weather conditions are a major determinant of flashover risk. Dry ash is not conductive, and heavy rain will wash ash from insulators, but light rain/mist will mobilise readily-soluble salts on the surface of the ash grains and lower the ash layer’s resistivity. Wet ash is also heavier than dry ash, increasing the risk of line breakage or tower/pole collapse. Particular issues for water supply managers include: monitoring turbidity levels in raw water intakes, and if necessary increasing chlorination to compensate for higher turbidity; managing water demand; and communicating monitoring results with the public to allay fears of contamination. Ash can cause major damage to wastewater disposal systems. Ash deposited onto impervious surfaces such as roads and car parks is very easily washed into storm drains, where it can form intractable masses and lead to long-term flooding problems. It can also enter wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), both through sewer lines and by direct fallout. Damage to modern WWTPs can run into millions of dollars. Ash falls reduce visibility creating hazards for ground transportation. Dry ash is also readily remobilised by vehicle traffic and wind, and dry and wet ash deposits will reduce traction on paved surfaces, including airport runways. Ash cleanup from road and airports is commonly necessary, but the large volumes make it logistically challenging. Vehicles are vulnerable to ash; it will clog filters and brake systems and abrade moving parts within engines. Lastly, modern telecommunications networks appear to be relatively resilient to volcanic ash fall. Signal attenuation and interference during ash falls has not been reported in eruptions over the past 20 years, with the exception of interference from ash plume-generated lightning. However, some telecommunications equipment is vulnerable to airborne ash, in particular heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems which may become blocked from ash ingestion leading to overheating. This summary of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure provides insight into the relative vulnerability of infrastructure under a range of different ashfall scenarios. Identifying and quantifying these impacts is an essential step in building resilience within these critical systems. We have attempted to consider interdependencies between sectors in a holistic way using systems thinking. As modern society becomes increasingly complex and interdependent this approach is likely to become increasingly necessary.

Multi-scale quantitative vulnerability assessment of buildings towards debris-flows: an application to Fella River Basin, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liliana Ciurean, Roxana; Hussin, Haydar; Glade, Thomas; van Westen, Cees; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2015-04-01

In physical vulnerability assessments, selection of working tools and methods is dependent not only on practical applications or decision question and data availability, but also on the scale of investigation. The aim of this study is to implement and compare two methodologies for assessing vulnerability of buildings in Fella River Basin (Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy). In this region, a major rainfall event in August 2003 triggered more than a thousand debris flows and floods resulting in two casualties. Damages to buildings, communication and transport infrastructure exceeded 400 million euros of monetary losses. The approaches considered are developed based on two methods of estimating debris-flow intensities: (1) for the regional and local scale, the behavior and run-out of the flow event was reconstructed using numerical debris flow modeling (Flow-R and Flow2D, respectively) to generate physical outputs (extension, depth, impact pressure, velocities) and determine the areas where elements at risk can be impacted; (2) for the local scale, a second method uses orthophoto documentation acquired shortly after the 2003 event for determining the location of the debris deposition and its depth at each impacted building. An extensive building inventory comprising information about the material of construction, occupancy type and use was compiled by desktop mapping and field work. The significance of the calculated intensity values were investigated in terms of resulting physical damages which were quantified for each affected structure as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained as functions of debris flow depth and impact pressure, respectively. The obtained curves were lastly compared with existing ones from the literature and sources of uncertainty from data input and the models employed were studied and discussed. The results of this study can be applied to further local consequence analysis and risk calculations, but can also been applied in other regions worldwide where respective data are available.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

2013-12-01

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes, and the emergence of risks that are place-based vs. systemic.

Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy vulnerabilities under large uncertainty about the future socio-economic and climatic changes and to guide policymakers in charting a more sustainable pathway and avoiding maladaptive development pathways. The results show that water scarcity is increasing in up to 83% of all land area under a high-emission scenario (RCP 6.0-SSP3). Importantly, the range of uncertainty in projected water scarcity is increasing; in some regions by several orders of magnitude (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa, eastern Europe, Central Asia). This is further illustrated by focusing on a set of large river basins that will be subject both to substantial changes in basin-wide water scarcity and to strong increases in the overall range of uncertainty (e.g. the Niger, Indus, Yangtze). These conditions pose a significant challenge for water management options in those vulnerable basins, complicating decisions on needed investments in water supply infrastructure and other system improvements, and leading to the degradation of valuable resources such as non-renewable groundwater resources and water-dependent ecosystems. The results of this study call for careful and deliberative design of water policy interventions under a wide range of socio-economic and climate conditions.

Camden, New Jersey Uses Green Infrastructure to Manage Stormwater

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Working with the EPA, CCMUA used the Climate Ready Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) to gain greater appreciation of the magnitude of its Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) and other vulnerabilities and identify potential adaptation strategies.

The public transportation system security and emergency preparedness planning guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

Recent events have focused renewed attention on the vulnerability of the nation's critical infrastructure to major events, including terrorism. The Public Transportation System Security and Emergency Preparedness Planning Guide has been prepared to s...

Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data from incidences of large-scale Himalayan earthquake disasters will form the basis for a multi-temporal analysis. By analyzing different time slots we identify development paths and building integrity shifts in the light of dynamic urbanization processes. Hereby, future trends and spatial scenarios can be developed. We suggest a goal oriented indicator evaluation process to compare different development scenarios. This serves as an orientation for spatial planning strategies for local and international stakeholders.

Fully integrated automated security surveillance system: managing a changing world through managed technology and product applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francisco, Glen; Brown, Todd

2012-06-01

Integrated security systems are essential to pre-empting criminal assaults. Nearly 500,000 sites have been identified (source: US DHS) as critical infrastructure sites that would suffer severe damage if a security breach should occur. One major breach in any of 123 U.S. facilities, identified as "most critical", threatens more than 1,000,000 people. The vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure are expected to continue and even heighten over the coming years.

Creating Community Resilience Through Elder-Led Physical and Social Infrastructure.

PubMed

Aldrich, Daniel P; Kyota, Emi

2017-02-01

Natural disasters and rapidly aging populations are chronic problems for societies worldwide. We investigated the effects of an intervention in Japan known as Ibasho, which embeds elderly residents in vulnerable areas within larger social networks and encourages them to participate in leadership activities. This project sought to deepen the connections of these elderly residents to society and to build elderly leadership and community capacity for future crises. We carried out surveys of participants and nonparticipant residents across the city of Ofunato in Tohoku, Japan, 1 year after the intervention began. Our surveys included questions assessing participation levels in Ibasho, demographic characteristics, efficacy, social networks, and a sense of belonging. Regression analysis and propensity score matching of more than 1100 respondents showed that regular participation in the Ibasho project had a statistically significant and positive connection with various measures of social capital. Given its relatively low cost and focus on deepening cohesion, we suggest that this community-based project could be replicated and scaled up in other countries to deepen resilience, elder health, and social capital. Moving away from an emphasis on investing in physical infrastructure, we believe that disaster risk reduction strategies should center on social infrastructure. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:120-126).

Graph modeling systems and methods

DOEpatents

Neergaard, Mike

2015-10-13

An apparatus and a method for vulnerability and reliability modeling are provided. The method generally includes constructing a graph model of a physical network using a computer, the graph model including a plurality of terminating vertices to represent nodes in the physical network, a plurality of edges to represent transmission paths in the physical network, and a non-terminating vertex to represent a non-nodal vulnerability along a transmission path in the physical network. The method additionally includes evaluating the vulnerability and reliability of the physical network using the constructed graph model, wherein the vulnerability and reliability evaluation includes a determination of whether each terminating and non-terminating vertex represents a critical point of failure. The method can be utilized to evaluate wide variety of networks, including power grid infrastructures, communication network topologies, and fluid distribution systems.

A bottom-up, vulnerability-based framework for identifying the adaptive capacity of water resources systems in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culley, Sam; Noble, Stephanie; Timbs, Michael; Yates, Adam; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Maier, Holger; Westra, Seth

2015-04-01

Water resource system infrastructure and operating policies are commonly designed on the assumption that the statistics of future rainfall, temperature and other hydrometeorological variables are equal to those of the historical record. There is now substantial evidence demonstrating that this assumption is no longer valid, and that climate change will significantly impact water resources systems worldwide. Under different climatic inputs, the performance of these systems may degrade to a point where they become unable to meet the primary objectives for which they were built. In such a changing context, using existing infrastructure more efficiently - rather than planning additional infrastructure - becomes key to restore the system's performance at acceptable levels and minimize financial investments and associated risk. The traditional top-down approach for assessing climate change impacts relies on the use of a cascade of models from the global to the local scale. However, it is often difficult to utilize this top-down approach in a decision-making procedure, as there is disparity amongst various climate projections, arising from incomplete scientific understanding of the complicated processes and feedbacks within the climate system, and model limitations in reproducing those relationships. In contrast with this top-down approach, this study contributes a framework to identify the adaptive capacity of water resource systems under changing climatic conditions adopting a bottom-up, vulnerability-based approach. The performance of the current system management is first assessed for a comprehensive range of climatic conditions, which are independent of climate model forecasts. The adaptive capacity of the system is then estimated by re-evaluating the performance of a set of adaptive operating policies, which are optimized for each climatic condition under which the system is simulated. The proposed framework reverses the perspective by identifying water system vulnerability drivers and by enhancing the adaptive capacity of the system to respond to unforeseen events, in order to design robust and resilient adaptation measures. The approach is demonstrated on the multipurpose operation of the Lake Como system, located in Northern Italy, accounting for flood protection and irrigation supply. Numerical results show that our framework successfully identified the failure boundary based on current system management policies, which is demonstrated as being particularly sensitive to decreases in both precipitation and temperature. To estimate the likelihood of the climate being in states causing system failures and to provide a time frame for reaching such states, we consider 22 climate model projections; these projections suggest that the current management policies will lead to a high chance of failure over the next 40 years. The adaptive capacity of the re-optimized operating policies exhibits the potential for partially mitigating adverse climate change impacts and for extending the life of the system.

Comparing factors of vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities affected by landslides in Eastern Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Dubois, Jerome; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

This paper describes a methodology for assessing and quantifying vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities in Eastern Nepal increasingly affected by landslides and flooding. We are interested in improving our understanding of the complex interactions between land use, landslides and multiple dimensions of risk, vulnerability and resilience to better target risk management strategies. Our approach is based on assessing underlying social, ecological and physical factors that cause vulnerability and on the other hand, those resources and capacities that increase resilience. Increasing resilience to disasters is frequently used by NGOs, governments and donors as the main goal of disaster risk reduction policies and practices. If we are to increase resilience to disasters, we need better guidance and tools for defining, assessing and monitoring its parameters. To do so, we are establishing a methodology for quantifying and mapping an index of resilience to compare resilience factors between households and communities based on interdisciplinary research methods: remote sensing, GIS, qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, participatory risk mapping, household questionnaires and focus groups discussions. Our study applied this methodology to several communities in Eastern Nepal where small, frequent landslides are greatly affecting rural lives and livelihoods. These landslides are not captured by headlines or official statistics but are examples of cumulative, hidden disasters, which are impacting everyday life and rural poverty in the Himalayas. Based on experience, marginalized populations are often aware of the physical risks and the limitations of their land. However, they continue to live in dangerous places out of necessity and for the economic or infrastructure opportunities offered. We compare two communities in Nepal, both affected by landslides but with different land use, migration patterns, education levels, social networks, risk reduction and coping strategies. Stone quarrying and road construction, offering economic opportunities, are aggravating landslide problems. The villages are faced with a delicate balance between economic development and physical risk in this fragile terrain. Based on our comparison, we discern which factors contribute to vulnerability and resilience, while drawing conclusions about the limitations of these concepts for developing risk management strategies. Our goal is to keep this method relatively simple, low cost and useful to decision-makers and communities for managing and designing integrated development and risk management approaches under changing climate conditions.

75 FR 59278 - Homeland Security Advisory Council

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-27

... information among TSA and federal and local law enforcement agencies concerning transportation infrastructure... about the potential capabilities and vulnerabilities identified in a cyber exercise and discuss... Operational Improvements. Lessons Learned from the cyber exercise. Basis for Closure: In accordance with...

Aviation security : vulnerabilities in, and alternatives for, pre-board screening security operations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-09-25

This is the statement of Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues before the Committee on Governmental Affairs and Its Subcommittee on Oversight of Governmental Management, Restructuring and the District of Columbia, U.S. Senate...

Aviation security : vulnerabilities in, and alternatives for, preboard screening security operations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-09-25

This is the statement of Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues before the Committee on Governmental Affairs and Its Subcommittee on Oversight of Governmental Management, Restructuring and the District of Columbia, U.S. Senate...

Providing Flood Risk Science for Resilient Transportation Infrastructure Decisions in Connecticut

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, R.; Cifuentes-Lorenzen, A.; Kooris, D.; O'Donnell, J.

2017-12-01

The Connecticut Institute for Resilience and Climate Adaptation (CIRCA) provides actionable science to accelerate adaptation and resilience strategies for Connecticut's inland and coastal waterways communities. Connecticut's coastal area has some of the most valuable real estate in the United States due to the Metro North and Shoreline East commuter rail line that connects all 24 coastal municipalities through transit hubs to the New York City metropolitan region. On its way to NY, the rail runs through neighborhoods and coastal marshes and crosses local and state roads. During coastal storms and increasingly at high tides as the sea level rises, the rail line may act like a berm, but also cuts off coastal neighborhoods from the upland. When it crosses a road in a marsh setting, the clearance restriction also severely limits communities' options for moving or elevating the roadway. These flooded roadways and vulnerable transit hubs are already a challenge for municipalities and will continue to be in the future. However, given scarce resources, it is not sufficient to simply know that they are vulnerable using existing low resolution mapping tools. Communities need site-specific, exact estimates of frequency of flooding, incorporating future sea level rise, to make cost determinations and accurately project the useful life of their investment. To address this need CIRCA developed high-resolution dynamic coastal flood risk models and partnered with municipal staff, regional planning bodies and the state to apply them to infrastructure decision-making. We will present three case studies of this approach: 1) the implementation of the US HUD National Disaster Resilience Competition pilot project of road elevation and berm construction in partnership with the Department of Housing and the City of Bridgeport; 2) the City of New London's first rail and ferry transit hub vulnerability assessment for sea level rise and storms and 3) the flooding frequency of a state road connecting the coastal towns of Branford and Guilford.

Expanding the Department of Defense’s Role in Cyber Civil Support

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-17

vulnerability of this very crucial domain. They include the Y2K problem, the Estonia cyber-attacks in 2007, and the role of cyber in the Russian-Georgia...cyber security vulnerabilities associated with critical infrastructure. The Year 2000 Challenge The Year 2000 ( Y2K ) problem was the result of...and microprocessors failed to make the correct transition from 1999 to 2000.19 One of the most critical concerns with Y2K was the potential cascading

Towards integrative risk management and more resilient societies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Khudhairy, D.; Axhausen, K.; Bishop, S.; Herrmann, H.; Hu, B.; Kröger, W.; Lewis, T.; MacIntosh, J.; Nowak, A.; Pickl, S.; Stauffacher, D.; Tan, E.

2012-11-01

Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructure systems such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective damages of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore provides spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal and terrorist actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. This article focuses on the development and characterization of an integrative risk-management which, from the perspective of "resilient systems", can be seen as an innovative and pro-active crisis management approach dealing with the increasing amount of complexity in societies in a comprehensive, agile and adaptive way.

Climate change induced risk analysis of Dar es Salaam city (Tanzania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topa, Maria Elena; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Johns, Regina; Kibassa, Deusdedit; Kweka, Clara; Magina, Fredrick; Mangula, Alpha; Mbuya, Elinorata; Uhinga, Guido; Kassenga, Gabriel; Kyessi, Alphonce; Shemdoe, Riziki; Kombe, Wilbard

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. The main objective of CLUVA is to develop context-centered methods and knowledge to be applied to African cities to assess vulnerabilities and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks. The project estimates the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale and downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate specific threats to selected African test cities. These are mainly from floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. The multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will present preliminary findings for the Dar es Salaam case study. Dar es Salaam, which is Tanzania's largest coastal city, is exposed to floods, coastal erosion, droughts and heat waves, and highly vulnerable to impacts as a result of ineffective urban planning (about 70% unplanned settlements), poverty and lack of basic infrastructure (e.g. lack of or poor quality storm water drainage systems). Climate change could exacerbate the current situation increasing hazard-exposure alongside the impacts of development pressures which act to increase urban vulnerability for example because of informal (unregulated) urbanization. The CLUVA research team - composed of climate and environmental scientists, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists from both European and African institutions - has started to produce research outputs suitable for use in evidence-based planning activities in the case study cities through interdisciplinary methods and analysis. Climate change projections at 8 km resolution are ready for regions containing each of the case study cities; a preliminary hazard assessment for floods, droughts and heat waves has been performed, based on historical data; urban morphology and related green structures have been characterized; preliminary findings in social vulnerability provide insights how communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards; vulnerability of informal settlements to floods has been assessed for a case study area (Suna sub ward) and a GIS based identification of urban residential hotspots to flooding is completed. Furthermore, a set of indicators has been identified and the most relevant for Dar es Salaam has been selected by local stakeholders to identify particular vulnerable high risk areas and communities. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance system and its interface with climate risks and vulnerability has inter-alia suggested severe institutional deficits including over-centralized institutions for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. A multi-risk framework considering climate-related hazards, and physical and social fragilities has been set up.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Drought vulnerability assesssment and mapping in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imani, Yasmina; Lahlou, Ouiam; Bennasser Alaoui, Si; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Juergen

2014-05-01

Drought vulnerability assessment and mapping in Morocco Authors: Yasmina Imani 1, Ouiam Lahlou 1, Si Bennasser Alaoui 1 Paulo Barbosa 2, Jurgen Vogt 2, Gustavo Naumann 2 1: Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II (IAV Hassan II), Rabat Morocco. 2: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, Italy. In Morocco, nearly 50% of the population lives in rural areas. They are mostly small subsistent farmers whose production depends almost entirely on rainfall. They are therefore very sensitive to drought episodes that may dramatically affect their incomes. Although, as a consequence of the increasing frequency, length and severity of drought episodes in the late 90's, the Moroccan government decided, to move on from a crisis to a risk management approach, drought management remains in practice mainly reactive and often ineffective. The lack of effectiveness of public policy is in part a consequence of the poor understanding of drought vulnerability at the rural community level, which prevents the development of efficient mitigation actions and adaptation strategies, tailored to the needs and specificities of each rural community. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess and map drought vulnerability at the rural commune level in the Oum Er-Rbia basin which is a very heterogeneous basin, showing a big variability of climates, landscapes, cropping systems and social habits. Agricultural data collected from the provincial and local administrations of Agriculture and socio-economic data from the National Department of Statistics were used to compute a composite vulnerability index (DVI) integrating four different components: (i) the renewable natural capacity, (ii) the economic capacity, (iii) human and civic resources, and (iv) infrastructure and technology. The drought vulnerability maps that were derived from the computation of the DVI shows that except very specific areas, most of the Oum er Rbia basin is highly vulnerable to drought. The mountainous areas present the most favorable annual rainfall. That contributes to explain their low DVI. In the provinces that present the highest vulnerability to drought, spots presenting a lower vulnerability correspond to large irrigated perimeters. Overall, the main output of this study were to show how the DVI can allow detecting the differences in vulnerability in the different rural communes providing, therefore, a tool for more effective drought management practices. The analysis of the 4 dimensions of the DVI showed that at the river basin level, the mean annual rainfall, the percentage of irrigated lands, The Cereal / Fruit trees and market crops ratio, the land status, the farm's sizes, the adult literacy rate and the access to improved drinking water represent the major drivers of vulnerability. They may therefore be targeted in priority by mitigation and adaptation actions.

An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

PubMed

Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

2014-01-01

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

An Integrated Framework for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Developing Adaptation Strategies for Coffee Growing Families in Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

2014-01-01

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions. PMID:24586328

America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify policies that might provide incentives for maladaptive behavior; bolster scientific research regarding adaptation; and encourage adaptation on a global scale through national programs with international components.

Modeling financial disaster risk management in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mechler, R.; Hochrainer, S.; Pflug, G.; Linnerooth-Bayer, J.

2005-12-01

The public sector plays a major role in reducing the long-term economic repercussions of disasters by repairing damaged infrastructure and providing financial assistance to households and businesses. If critical infrastructure is not repaired in a timely manner, there can be serious effects on the economy and the livelihoods of the population. The repair of public infrastructure, however, can be a significant drain on public budgets especially in developing and transition countries. Developing country governments frequently lack the liquidity, even including international aid and loans, to fully repair damaged critical public infrastructure or provide sufficient support to households and businesses for their recovery. The earthquake in Gujarat, and other recent cases of government post-disaster liquidity crises, have sounded an alarm, prompting financial development organizations, such as the World Bank, among others, to call for greater attention to reducing financial vulnerability and increasing the resilience of the public sector. This talk reports on a model designed to illustrate the tradeoffs and choices a developing country must make in financially managing the economic risks due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources allocated to pre-disaster risk management strategies, such as loss mitigation measures, a catastrophe reserve fund, insurance and contingent credit arrangements for public assets, reduce the probability of financing gaps - the inability of governments to meet their full obligations in providing relief to private victims and restoring public infrastructure - or prevent the deterioration of the ability to undertake additional borrowing without incurring a debt crisis. The model -which is equipped with a graphical interface - can be a helpful tool for building capacity of policy makers for developing and assessing public financing strategies for disaster risk by indicating the respective costs and consequences of financing alternatives.

Development of a guideline for estimating tsunami forces On bridge superstructures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

"The Pacific Northwest is vulnerable to seismic events in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) that could generate a : large tsunami that could devastate coastal infrastructure such as bridges. In this context, this paper describes the : development of...

How vulnerable is Texas’ freight infrastructure to extreme weather events? Final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

The Texas Freight Mobility Plan forecasts significant increases in freight volumes across all transportation modes over the next three decades. An increased frequency of extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts and flash flooding is also exp...

Physical and institutional vulnerability assessment method applied in Alpine communities. Preliminary Results of the SAMCO-ANR Project in the Guil Valley (French Southern Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlier, Benoit; Dujarric, Constance; Puissant, Anne; Lissak, Candide; Viel, Vincent; Bétard, François; Madelin, Malika; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles

2015-04-01

The Guil catchment is particularly prone to torrential and gravitational hazards such as floods, debris flows, landslides or avalanches due to several predisposing factors (bedrock supplying abundant debris, strong hillslope-channel connectivity) in a context of summer Mediterranean rainstorms as triggers. These hazards severely impact the local population (fatalities, destruction of buildings and infrastructures, loss of agricultural land, road closures). Since the second half of the 20th century, the progressive decline of agro-pastoralism and the development of tourism activities led to a concentration of human stakes on alluvial cones and valley bottom, therefore an increase of vulnerability for mountainous communities. Following the 1957 and 2000 catastrophic floods and the 1948 and 2008 avalanche episodes, some measures were taken to reduce exposure to risks (engineering works, standards of construction, rescue training…). Nevertheless, in front of urban expansion (land pressures and political pressures) and obsolescence of the existing protective measures, it is essential to reassess the vulnerability of the stakes exposed to hazards. Vulnerability analysis is, together with hazard evaluation, one of the major steps of risk assessment. In the frame of the SAMCO project designed for mountain risk assessment, our goal is to estimate specific form of vulnerability for communities living in the Upper Guil catchment in order to provide useful documentation for a better management of the valley bottom and the implementation of adequate mitigation measures. Here we present preliminary results on three municipalities of the upper Guil catchment: Aiguilles, Abriès, and Ristolas. We propose an empirical semi-quantitative indicator of potential hazards consequences on element at risk (based on GIS) with an application to different (local and regional scale) scales. This indicator, called Potential Damage Index, enable us to describe, quantify, and visualize direct (physical injury, structural and functional damage on buildings, lifelines and land cover) and indirect (socio-economic impacts) consequences. The method allows estimating the possible damage caused by torrential and gravitational hazards by combining weighted indicators (age, state, land use, number of occupied floors, etc.) reflecting the exposure of elements at risk (land cover, buildings, and lifelines) to obtain different maps of total consequences. Besides, this method allows introducing temporality by modifying the weight and the combination of variables. For example, we can operate the distinction between day and night or between the off-season and the touristic season. Another benefit of this method is to permit the visualization of the vulnerability evolution producing diachronic maps. All these maps, combined with adequate hazards map, will contribute to a better assessment of vulnerability in the Queyras and must help the development of better land use and evacuation plans, and thus are important tools for local authorities. This study will be completed by an analysis of social and institutional vulnerability realized on the basis of interview with local councillors and risk perception survey led with the local populations and the tourists.

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

PubMed Central

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

2018-01-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

PubMed

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

2017-05-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

PubMed

Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Michel, Loïc N; Gobert, Sylvie; Sini, Maria; Boudouresque, Charles-François; Gambi, Maria-Cristina; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Lejeune, Pierre; Montefalcone, Monica; Pergent, Gerard; Pergent-Martini, Christine; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Velimirov, Branko; Vizzini, Salvatrice; Abadie, Arnaud; Coll, Marta; Guidetti, Paolo; Micheli, Fiorenza; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Increasing the resilience and security of the United States' power infrastructure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Happenny, Sean F.

2015-08-01

The United States' power infrastructure is aging, underfunded, and vulnerable to cyber attack. Emerging smart grid technologies may take some of the burden off of existing systems and make the grid as a whole more efficient, reliable, and secure. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is funding research into several aspects of smart grid technology and grid security, creating a software simulation tool that will allow researchers to test power infrastructure control and distribution paradigms by utilizing different smart grid technologies to determine how the grid and these technologies react under different circumstances. Understanding how these systems behave in real-worldmore » conditions will lead to new ways to make our power infrastructure more resilient and secure. Demonstrating security in embedded systems is another research area PNNL is tackling. Many of the systems controlling the U.S. critical infrastructure, such as the power grid, lack integrated security and the aging networks protecting them are becoming easier to attack.« less

High Fidelity Simulations of Large-Scale Wireless Networks (Plus-Up)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onunkwo, Uzoma

Sandia has built a strong reputation in scalable network simulation and emulation for cyber security studies to protect our nation’s critical information infrastructures. Georgia Tech has preeminent reputation in academia for excellence in scalable discrete event simulations, with strong emphasis on simulating cyber networks. Many of the experts in this field, such as Dr. Richard Fujimoto, Dr. George Riley, and Dr. Chris Carothers, have strong affiliations with Georgia Tech. The collaborative relationship that we intend to immediately pursue is in high fidelity simulations of practical large-scale wireless networks using ns-3 simulator via Dr. George Riley. This project will have mutualmore » benefits in bolstering both institutions’ expertise and reputation in the field of scalable simulation for cyber-security studies. This project promises to address high fidelity simulations of large-scale wireless networks. This proposed collaboration is directly in line with Georgia Tech’s goals for developing and expanding the Communications Systems Center, the Georgia Tech Broadband Institute, and Georgia Tech Information Security Center along with its yearly Emerging Cyber Threats Report. At Sandia, this work benefits the defense systems and assessment area with promise for large-scale assessment of cyber security needs and vulnerabilities of our nation’s critical cyber infrastructures exposed to wireless communications.« less

Predictive battlespace awareness and effects-based operations from a Homeland Security perspective: a wargaming opportunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, James K.; Hubbard, Zachary P.

2003-09-01

Effects Based Operations (EBO) and Predictive Battlespace Awareness (PBA) are intimately linked. Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace (IPB), the predictive component of PBA, provides a structured analytical process for defining the battlespace environment, describing the battlespace effects that influence all sides, modeling the adversary, and determining likely enemy courses of action (COA). IPB documents some of the necessary elements of EBO, such as centers of gravity, counter-COAs, and indicators. The IPB process has been adapted to Information Operations (IO) through Intelligence Preparation of the Information Battlespace (IPIB), a prototype system for cyber-defense. IPIB ranks Enemy cyber-COAs and lists mission-critical network assets that must be defended. It is clear that IPIB can be inverted for developing COAs that implement EBO, and the prototype is being modified for offensive IO. Full-spectrum EBO would combine kinetic, cyber, and cognitive COAs to affect an adversary's behavior. This paper uses a Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) scenario to: 1) Provide an example of EBO-based PBA for CIP. 2) Illustrate the interaction between EBO and PBA. 3) Demonstrate the need for a national Critical Infrastructure vulnerability assessment. 4) Identify why simulation and wargaming are the most viable means of performing such an assessment.

Geospatial techniques for allocating vulnerability zoning of geohazards along the Karakorum Highway, Gilgit-Baltistan-Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, K. M.; Rashid, S.; Yaseen, M.; Ikram, M.

2016-12-01

The Karakoram Highway (KKH) 'eighth wonder of the world', constructed and completed by the consent of Pakistan and China in 1979 as a Friendship Highway. It connect Gilgit-Baltistan, a strategically prominent region of Pakistan, with Xinjiang region in China. Due to manifold geology/geomorphology, soil formation, steep slopes, climate change well as unsustainable anthropogenic activities, still, KKH is remarkably vulnerable to natural hazards i.e. land subsistence, landslides, erosion, rock fall, floods, debris flows, cyclical torrential rainfall and snowfall, lake outburst etc. Most of the time these geohazard's damaging effects jeopardized the life in the region. To ascertain the nature and frequency of the disaster and vulnerability zoning, a rating and management (logistic) analysis were made to investigate the spatiotemporal sharing of the natural hazard. The substantial dynamics of the physiograpy, geology, geomorphology, soils and climate were carefully understand while slope, aspect, elevation, profile curvature and rock hardness was calculated by different techniques. To assess the nature and intensity geospatial analysis were conducted and magnitude of every factor was gauged by using logistic regression. Moreover, ever relative variable was integrated in the evaluation process. Logistic regression and geospatial techniques were used to map the geohazard vulnerability zoning (GVZ). The GVZ model findings were endorsed by the reviews of documented hazards in the current years and the precision was realized more than 88.1 %. The study has proved the model authentication by highlighting the comfortable indenture among the vulnerability mapping and past documented hazards. By using a receiver operating characteristic curve, the logistic regression model made satisfactory results. The outcomes will be useful in sustainable land use and infrastructure planning, mainly in high risk zones for reduceing economic damages and community betterment.

Constructing a resilience index for the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, R. E.; Bassett, G. W.; Buehring, W. A.

2010-10-14

Following recommendations made in Homeland Security Presidential Directive 7, which established a national policy for the identification and increased protection of critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) by Federal departments and agencies, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2006 developed the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection (ECIP) program. The ECIP program aimed to provide a closer partnership with state, regional, territorial, local, and tribal authorities in fulfilling the national objective to improve CIKR protection. The program was specifically designed to identify protective measures currently in place in CIKR and to inform facility owners/operators of the benefits of new protectivemore » measures. The ECIP program also sought to enhance existing relationships between DHS and owners/operators of CIKR and to build relationships where none existed (DHS 2008; DHS 2009). In 2009, DHS and its protective security advisors (PSAs) began assessing CIKR assets using the ECIP program and ultimately produced individual protective measure and vulnerability values through the protective measure and vulnerability indices (PMI/VI). The PMI/VI assess the protective measures posture of individual facilities at their 'weakest link,' allowing for a detailed analysis of the most vulnerable aspects of the facilities (Schneier 2003), while maintaining the ability to produce an overall protective measures picture. The PMI has six main components (physical security, security management, security force, information sharing, protective measures assessments, and dependencies) and focuses on actions taken by a facility to prevent or deter the occurrence of an incident (Argonne National Laboratory 2009). As CIKR continue to be assessed using the PMI/VI and owners/operators better understand how they can prevent or deter incidents, academic research, practitioner emphasis, and public policy formation have increasingly focused on resilience as a necessary component of the risk management framework and infrastructure protection. This shift in focus toward resilience complements the analysis of protective measures by taking into account the three other phases of risk management: mitigation, response, and recovery (Figure 1). Thus, the addition of a robust resilience index (RI) to the established PMI/VI provides vital information to owners/operators throughout the risk management process. Combining a pre-incident focus with a better understanding of resilience, as well as potential consequences from damaged CIKR, allows owners/operators to better understand different ways to decrease risk by (1) increasing physical security measures to prevent an incident, (2) supplementing redundancy to mitigate the effects of an incident, and (3) enhancing emergency action and business continuity planning to increase the effectiveness of recovery procedures. Information provided by the RI methodology is also used by facility owners/operators to better understand how their facilities compare to similar sector/subsector sites and to help them make risk-based decisions. This report provides an overview of the RI methodology developed to estimate resilience and provide resilience comparisons for sectors and subsectors. The information will be used to (1) assist DHS in analyzing existing response and recovery methods and programs at facilities and (2) identify potential ways to increase resilience. The RI methodology is based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry, which is 'the coevolutionary search for the best in people, their organizations, and the relevant world around them' (Cooperrider et al. 2005). Appreciative Inquiry identifies the best of 'what is' and helps to envision 'what might be.' The ECIP program and the RI represent a new model (using Appreciative Inquiry principles) for information sharing between government and industry (Fisher and Petit 2010). A 'dashboard' display, which provides an interactive tool - rather than a static report, presents the results of the RI in a convenient format. Additional resilience measures can be modeled to illustrate how such actions would impact the asset's RI value.« less

Strategies, Protections and Mitigations for Electric Grid from Electromagnetic Pulse Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foster, Rita Ann; Frickey, Steven Jay

2016-01-01

The mission of DOE’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) is to lead national efforts to modernize the electricity delivery system, enhance the security and reliability of America’s energy infrastructure and facilitate recovery from disruptions to the energy supply. One of the threats OE is concerned about is a high-altitude electro-magnetic pulse (HEMP) from a nuclear explosion and eletro-magnetic pulse (EMP) or E1 pulse can be generated by EMP weapons. DOE-OE provides federal leadership and technical guidance in addressing electric grid issues. The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was chosen to conduct the EMP study for DOE-OE due tomore » its capabilities and experience in setting up EMP experiments on the electric grid and conducting vulnerability assessments and developing innovative technology to increase infrastructure resiliency. This report identifies known impacts to EMP threats, known mitigations and effectiveness of mitigations, potential cost of mitigation, areas for government and private partnerships in protecting the electric grid to EMP, and identifying gaps in our knowledge and protection strategies.« less

Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, D E; Durling, R L

2005-10-10

The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's expertise in weapons systems and in sparse information analysis to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors,more » HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities will be presented.« less

Critical Foundations: Protecting America’s Infrastructures. The Report of the President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-10-13

in Tokyo and bombings of the subway system in Paris, mass transit remains open and vulnerable to terrorist acts. Millions of miles of pipelines carry...Outside of "" C Risk Management Plan . Creates a Competitive Advantage , Not Considered Industry’s "• Protects Brand/ Franchise Responsibility- I ssue of...the out- set, the Commission considered expanding the scope of this sector to include food , health care and the nation’s work force as additional

Evaluation of NYC's Coastal Vulnerability and Potential Adaptation Strategies in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S. M.; Foti, R.; Montalto, F. A.

2015-12-01

New York City's coastlines are a mosaic of remnant natural habitat, man-made wetlands, manicured parkland, public beaches, housing, and industrial centers, all of which are extremely vulnerable to flooding, storm surge, and damaging wave action. Risks are projected to increase overtime as sea levels rise, population grows, and the frequency and severity of extreme events increases. In order to protect its citizens and infrastructure, New York City is planning to invest 20 billion into a coastal protection plan, including 200 million towards wetlands creation and restoration. Focusing on the role of wetlands and parkland in reducing damages during Hurricane Sandy, our study seeks to identify the primary causes of coastal vulnerability and to provide guidelines for the design of coastal protection measures. Our findings show that most of the small, fragmented NYC's wetlands did not provide significant protection from the violence of the hurricane. Large stretches of wetlands and parkland, on the other hand, were found to exacerbate storm surge along the coast, but did reduce surge penetration further inland. Much of the protection provided by wetlands and coastal green sites was in the form of cost avoidance. Wetlands existed in the most heavily hit areas and so averted damages that would have occurred if those areas had been developed. Our results suggest that, when positioned in the highest risk areas, coastal green infrastructure such as wetlands and parklands can reduce coastal flood risks associated with extreme events like Hurricane Sandy. Policy would ideally prioritize conservation, restoration, and enhancement of large contiguous areas of wetlands in the lowest elevation areas of the city. Where low-lying coastal development cannot be relocated, the risk of damage from storm surges is best reduced by elevating critical infrastructure.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

PubMed Central

Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. PMID:29444086

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

PubMed

Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE PAGES

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; ...

2017-10-30

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Newmark, Robin; Fekete, Balazs

2017-11-01

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptation strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. Climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Challenges in Projecting Sea Level Rise impacts on the Coastal Environment of South Florida (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.; Park, J.; Irizarry-Ortiz, M. M.; Barnes, J. A.; Trimble, P.; Said, W.

2010-12-01

Due to flat topography, a highly transmissive groundwater aquifer, and a growing population with the associated infrastructure, South Florida’s coastal environment is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise. Current projections of sea level rise and the associated storm surges will have direct impacts on coastal beaches and infrastructure, flood protection, freshwater aquifers, and both the isolated and regional wetlands. Uncertainties in current projections have made it difficult for regional and local governments to develop adaptation strategies as such measures will depend heavily on the temporal and spatial patterns of sea level rise in the coming decades. We demonstrate the vulnerability of both the built and natural environments of the coastal region and present the current efforts to understand and predict the sea level rise estimate that management agencies could employ in planning of adaptation strategies. In particular, the potential vulnerabilities of the flood control system as well as the threat to the water supply wellfields in the coastal belt will be presented. In an effort to understand the historical variability of sea level rise, we present linkages to natural phenomena such as Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and the analytical methods we have developed to provide probabilistic projections of both mean sea level rise and the extremes.

Harmonizing Access to Federal Data - Lessons Learned Through the Climate Data Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bugbee, K.; Pinheiro Privette, A. C.; Meyer, D. J.; Ramachandran, R.

2016-12-01

The Climate Data Initiative (CDI), launched by the Obama Administration in March of 2014, is an effort to leverage the extensive open Federal data to spur innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in order to advance awareness of and preparedness for the impacts of climate change (see the White House fact sheet). The project includes an online catalog of climate-related datasets and data products in key areas of climate change risk and vulnerability from across the U.S. federal government through http://Climate.Data.gov. NASA was tasked with the implementation and management of the project and has been working closely with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and Data Curators (DCs) from across the Federal Government to identify and catalog federal datasets relevant for assessing climate risks and impacts. These datasets are organized around key themes and are framed by key climate questions. The current themes within CDI include: Arctic, Coastal Flooding, Ecosystem Vulnerability, Energy Infrastructure, Food Resilience, Human Health, Transportation, Tribal Nations and Water. This paper summarizes the main lessons learned from the last 2.5 years of CDI implementation.

78 FR 42101 - Boston Area Maritime Security Advisory Committee; Vacancies

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-15

...: Identifying critical port infrastructure and operations; Identifying risks (threats, vulnerabilities, and... years of experience related to maritime or port security operations. AMSC Membership The Boston AMSC has... security industries. In support of the USCG policy on gender and ethnic nondiscrimination, we encourage...

77 FR 39249 - Boston Area Maritime Security Advisory Committee; Vacancies

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-02

...: Identifying critical port infrastructure and operations; Identifying risks (threats, vulnerabilities, and... years of experience related to maritime or port security operations. AMSC Membership The Boston AMSC has... security industries. In support of the USCG policy on gender and ethnic diversity, we encourage qualified...

78 FR 73704 - Eagle Permits; Changes in the Regulations Governing Eagle Permitting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-09

... to an otherwise lawful activity, such as mortalities caused by collisions with wind turbines... birds, specifically raptors, are especially vulnerable to colliding with wind turbines (Barrios and... interactions with power lines, wind turbines, or other infrastructure. APPs are developed by companies...

Tri-Level Optimization Algorithms for Solving Defender-Attacker-Defender Network Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

ed.). New York: Springer. Brimberg, J., Hansen, P., Lin, K., Mladenović, N., & Breton, M. (2003). An Oil Pipeline Design Problem. Operations...H. (2012). Critical infrastructure protection: The vulnerability conundrum. Telematics and informatics , 29(1), 56–65. Retrieved from http

Security Isn't Just for Techies Anymore

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Lane B.

2004-01-01

School district networks are particularly difficult to protect given the diverse types of users, software, equipment and connections that most school districts provide. Vulnerabilities to the security of school district's technology infrastructure can relate to users, data, software, hardware and transmission. This article discusses different…

Biophysical, infrastructural and social heterogeneities explain spatial distribution of waterborne gastrointestinal disease burden in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baeza, Andrés; Estrada-Barón, Alejandra; Serrano-Candela, Fidel; Bojórquez, Luis A.; Eakin, Hallie; Escalante, Ana E.

2018-06-01

Due to unplanned growth, large extension and limited resources, most megacities in the developing world are vulnerable to hydrological hazards and infectious diseases caused by waterborne pathogens. Here we aim to elucidate the extent of the relation between the spatial heterogeneity of physical and socio-economic factors associated with hydrological hazards (flooding and scarcity) and the spatial distribution of gastrointestinal disease in Mexico City, a megacity with more than 8 million people. We applied spatial statistics and multivariate regression analyses to high resolution records of gastrointestinal diseases during two time frames (2007–2009 and 2010–2014). Results show a pattern of significant association between water flooding events and disease incidence in the city center (lowlands). We also found that in the periphery (highlands), higher incidence is generally associated with household infrastructure deficiency. Our findings suggest the need for integrated and spatially tailored interventions by public works and public health agencies, aimed to manage socio-hydrological vulnerability in Mexico City.

Mapping Vulnerability to Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1900-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maynard-Ford, Miriam C.; Phillips, Emily C.; Chirico, Peter G.

2008-01-01

The vulnerability of a population and its infrastructure to disastrous events is a factor of both the probability of a hazardous event occurring and the community's ability to cope with the resulting impacts. Therefore, the ability to accurately identify vulnerable populations and places in order to prepare for future hazards is of critical importance for disaster mitigation programs. This project created maps of higher spatial resolution of vulnerability to disaster in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1900 to 2007 by mapping disaster data by first-level administrative boundaries with the objective of identifying geographic trends in regional occurrences of disasters and vulnerable populations. The method of mapping by administrative level is an improvement on displaying and analyzing disasters at the country level and shows the relative intensity of vulnerability within and between countries in the region. Disaster mapping at the country level produces only a basic view of which countries experience various types of natural disasters. Through disaggregation, the data show which geographic areas of these countries, including populated areas, are historically most susceptible to different hazard types.

Avalanche risk assessment - a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiler, M.; Sailer, R.; Jörg, P.; Weber, C.; Fuchs, S.; Zischg, A.; Sauermoser, S.

2006-07-01

Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour, values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these factors and their influence on the resulting risk. The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models (SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability function for different construction types of buildings that depends on avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high complexity of the variations in risk, small changes of one of several influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the today's risk by identifying the main changes and the underlying processes. Furthermore, this knowledge can be implemented in strategies for sustainable development in Alpine settlements.

Coastal Hazard Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of Erosion and Flooding on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radosavljevic, B.; Lantuit, H.; Overduin, P. P.; Fritz, M.

2015-12-01

Coastal infrastructure, cultural, and archeological sites are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding along permafrost coasts. Amplified warming of the Arctic, sea level rise, lengthening of the open water period, and a predicted increase in frequency of major storms compound these threats. Mitigation necessitates decision-making tools at an appropriate scale. We present a study of coastal erosion combining it with a flooding risk assessment for the culturally important historic settlement on Herschel Island, a UNESCO World Heritage candidate site. The resulting map may help local stakeholders devise management strategies to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions. We analyzed shoreline movement using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) after digitizing shorelines from 1952, 1970, and 2011. Using these data, forecasts of shoreline positions were made for 20 and 50 years into the future. Flooding risk was assessed using a cost-distance map based on a high-resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) dataset and current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates. Widespread erosion characterizes the study area. The rate of shoreline movement for different periods of the study ranges from -5.5 to 2.7 m·a-1 (mean -0.6 m·a-1). Mean coastal retreat decreased from -0.6 m·a-1 to -0.5 m·a-1, for 1952-1970 and 1970-2000, respectively, and increased to -1.3 m·a-1 in the period 2000-2011. Ice-rich coastal sections, and coastal sections most exposed to wave attack exhibited the highest rates of coastal retreat. The geohazard map resulting from shoreline projections and flood risk analysis indicates that most of the area occupied by the historic settlement is at extreme or very high risk of flooding, and some buildings are vulnerable to coastal erosion. The results of this study indicate a greater threat by coastal flooding than erosion. Our assessment may be applied in other locations where limited data are available.

Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

2014-05-01

We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause-effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and hopefully contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

A Preliminary Tsunami Vulnerability Analysis for Yenikapi Region in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceren Cankaya, Zeynep; Suzen, Lutfi; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kolat, Cagil; Aytore, Betul; Zaytsev, Andrey

2015-04-01

One of the main requirements during post disaster recovery operations is to maintain proper transportation and fluent communication at the disaster areas. Ports and harbors are the main transportation hubs which must work with proper performance at all times especially after the disasters. Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis have major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Istanbul is a mega city with its various coastal utilities located at the north coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi region of Istanbul, there are critical coastal utilities and vulnerable coastal structures and critical activities occur daily. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, water front commercial and/or recreational structures are some of the examples of coastal utilization which are vulnerable against marine disasters. Therefore their vulnerability under tsunami or any other marine hazard to Yenikapi region of Istanbul is an important issue. In this study, a methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack is proposed with the applications to Yenikapi region. In the study, high resolution (1m) GIS database of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed by using GIS implementation. The bathymetry and topography database and the vector dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the study area are obtained for tsunami numerical modeling for the study area. GIS based tsunami vulnerability assessment is conducted by applying the Multi-criteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA). The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability parameters in the region due to two different classifications i) vulnerability of buildings/structures and ii) vulnerability of (human) evacuation are defined and scored. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and vulnerability (structural and human-based) at each node in Yenikapi. The results are presented at high resolution (1m) and discussed. Acknowledgements: Partial support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-C-12-14 of AFAD of Turkey, 108Y227 and 113M556 of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call, 2011K140210 of DPT, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region by SATREPS are acknowledged.

Scada Malware, a Proof of Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carcano, Andrea; Fovino, Igor Nai; Masera, Marcelo; Trombetta, Alberto

Critical Infrastructures are nowadays exposed to new kind of threats. The cause of such threats is related to the large number of new vulnerabilities and architectural weaknesses introduced by the extensive use of ICT and Network technologies into such complex critical systems. Of particular interest are the set of vulnerabilities related to the class of communication protocols normally known as “SCADA” protocols, under which fall all the communication protocols used to remotely control the RTU devices of an industrial system. In this paper we present a proof of concept of the potential effects of a set of computer malware specifically designed and created in order to impact, by taking advantage of some vulnerabilities of the ModBUS protocol, on a typical Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition system.

Using Climate Science to Inform Local Planning: Challenges and Successes from the Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.

2014-12-01

Much of our society, including our agriculture, our dependence on natural resources, and our infrastructure, is built on the assumption that individual weather events and average conditions may vary from year to year, but over the long term the climate of a given region can be predicted based on past climate "normals". This assumption is no longer valid; today, human-induced climate change is altering average conditions as well as the risk of many types of weather extremes. Observed trends and projected future changes in mean climate and in the frequency and severity of temperature extremes, heat waves, heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, and storms are clearly documented in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as by a host of other regional impact assessments. While future projections are inherently uncertain, these assessments make one fact clear: future planning for any sector or region affected by climate change that fails to take into account long-term trends will end up with the wrong answer. This concept of non-stationarity, that future climate will differ from that experienced in the past, challenges regional planners, water managers, city managers and engineers to incorporate future climate change into present-day planning. From the perspective of scientists, translating climate projections into information that can be used by stakeholders and decision-makers presents a challenge of equal magnitude. Here, I draw on my experience working with the agriculture, ecosystem, energy, health, infrastructure, insurance, and water sectors to propose a framework for, and highlight some of the main challenges inherent to, incorporating climate information into practical, on-the-ground planning at the local to regional scale. This approach, which we have developed through working with a range of cities, states, and regions including Austin, Cambridge, California, Chicago, Delaware, the Northeast, and most recently Washington DC, is based on identifying known vulnerabilities within the systems of interest, and developing appropriate information compatible with existing planning mechanisms to ensure the relevance and utility of the climate information for increasing resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate risks.

76 FR 55886 - Selection Criteria-Transportation Infrastructure Improvements Associated With Medical Facilities...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-09

... on-base parking demand (negative factor) or relieves parking demand (positive factor); (ii) the... four different comments. The public comments were considered by OEA in determining the final selection... of mitigation (positive factor) or contribution to vulnerability to a terrorist attack or major...

Co-location and Self-Similar Topologies of Urban Infrastructure Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinkhamer, Christopher; Zhan, Xianyuan; Ukkusuri, Satish; Elisabeth, Krueger; Paik, Kyungrock; Rao, Suresh

2016-04-01

The co-location of urban infrastructure is too obvious to be easily ignored. For reasons of practicality, reliability, and eminent domain, the spatial locations of many urban infrastructure networks, including drainage, sanitary sewers, and road networks, are well correlated. However, important questions dealing with correlations in the network topologies of differing infrastructure types remain unanswered. Here, we have extracted randomly distributed, nested subnets from the urban drainage, sanitary sewer, and road networks in two distinctly different cities: Amman, Jordan; and Indianapolis, USA. Network analyses were performed for each randomly chosen subnet (location and size), using a dual-mapping approach (Hierarchical Intersection Continuity Negotiation). Topological metrics for each infrastructure type were calculated and compared for all subnets in a given city. Despite large differences in the climate, governance, and populace of the two cities, and functional properties of the different infrastructure types, these infrastructure networks are shown to be highly spatially homogenous. Furthermore, strong correlations are found between topological metrics of differing types of surface and subsurface infrastructure networks. Also, the network topologies of each infrastructure type for both cities are shown to exhibit self-similar characteristics (i.e., power law node-degree distributions, [p(k) = ak-γ]. These findings can be used to assist city planners and engineers either expanding or retrofitting existing infrastructure, or in the case of developing countries, building new cities from the ground up. In addition, the self-similar nature of these infrastructure networks holds significant implications for the vulnerability of these critical infrastructure networks to external hazards and ways in which network resilience can be improved.

Rapid assessment of infrastructure of primary health care facilities - a relevant instrument for health care systems management.

PubMed

Scholz, Stefan; Ngoli, Baltazar; Flessa, Steffen

2015-05-01

Health care infrastructure constitutes a major component of the structural quality of a health system. Infrastructural deficiencies of health services are reported in literature and research. A number of instruments exist for the assessment of infrastructure. However, no easy-to-use instruments to assess health facility infrastructure in developing countries are available. Present tools are not applicable for a rapid assessment by health facility staff. Therefore, health information systems lack data on facility infrastructure. A rapid assessment tool for the infrastructure of primary health care facilities was developed by the authors and pilot-tested in Tanzania. The tool measures the quality of all infrastructural components comprehensively and with high standardization. Ratings use a 2-1-0 scheme which is frequently used in Tanzanian health care services. Infrastructural indicators and indices are obtained from the assessment and serve for reporting and tracing of interventions. The tool was pilot-tested in Tanga Region (Tanzania). The pilot test covered seven primary care facilities in the range between dispensary and district hospital. The assessment encompassed the facilities as entities as well as 42 facility buildings and 80 pieces of technical medical equipment. A full assessment of facility infrastructure was undertaken by health care professionals while the rapid assessment was performed by facility staff. Serious infrastructural deficiencies were revealed. The rapid assessment tool proved a reliable instrument of routine data collection by health facility staff. The authors recommend integrating the rapid assessment tool in the health information systems of developing countries. Health authorities in a decentralized health system are thus enabled to detect infrastructural deficiencies and trace the effects of interventions. The tool can lay the data foundation for district facility infrastructure management.

A Tool for Assessing Future Capacity Loss Due to Sedimentation in the United States' Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinson, A. O.; Baker, B.; White, K. D.

2017-12-01

Federal reservoirs are critical components of the United States' water supply, flood risk management, hydropower and navigation infrastructure. These reservoirs included capacity for storage loss due to the deposition of sediment by inflowing streams in their original design. However, the actual rate of capacity loss experienced is controlled in part by climate, topography, soils, and land use/land cover, and may vary from the design. To assess the current and future vulnerability of its reservoirs to sedimentation. USACE has developed an online planning tool to identify USACE reservoirs where sedimentation is currently a problem (e.g., sedimentation rate exceeds design sedimentation rate, or zone losses disproportionately affect authorized purposes), and reservoirs where rates are expected to increase significantly in the future. The goal is to be able to prioritize operation and maintenance actions to minimize the effects of reservoir capacity loss on authorized purposes and help maximize reservoir use life.

Evaluation and Mitigation of the Risk Due to Climate Change at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2016-12-01

The state of South Carolina, home to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), has been identified as facing an `above average' risk due to extreme heat, and the threat due to wildfire is expected to nearly double by 2050. To comply with DOE requirements that each of its sites prepares for climate change, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is involved in an ongoing process to evaluate the site vulnerability and establish policies to mitigate those effects. This requires close cooperation between the managers of various site facilities and on-site climate researchers. The Atmospheric Technologies Group at SRNL currently provides short-term weather forecasts to support outdoor activities on site, but is also now working with site decision-makers to achieve DOE's goals of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We will discuss the results of our climate vulnerability assessment, which includes the effects of climate change on the energy requirements for mission critical infrastructure, the health, safety and productivity of the outdoor workforce, the danger of fire in the SRS forest, and the levels of surface water impoundments. (The latter of which must be maintained to avoid the release of radioactive contaminants sequestered beneath them). For each of these, existing climate change projections were carefully studied and `translated' into numerical indices relevant to facility personnel at SRS, along with a vulnerability rating (also based on conversations with site workers) to estimate the most endangered `assets'. We will also explain the process we have developed to facilitate effective communication between researchers and managers - involving them both in the development of the climate vulnerability assessment and the next steps toward planning, resource allocation, actions to mitigate rising costs, and safety considerations as well as helping the site remain sustainable throughout the future of its missions.

Contrasting temperature trends across the ice-free part of Greenland.

PubMed

Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas; Karami, Mojtaba; Hansen, Birger Ulf; Westermann, Sebastian; Elberling, Bo

2018-01-25

Temperature changes in the Arctic have notable impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning, on soil carbon dynamics, and on the stability of permafrost, thus affecting ecosystem functions and putting man-built infrastructure at risk. Future warming in the Arctic could accelerate important feedbacks in permafrost degradation processes. Therefore it is important to map vulnerable areas most likely to be impacted by temperature changes and at higher risk of degradation, particularly near communities, to assist adaptation to climate change. Currently, these areas are poorly assessed, especially in Greenland. Here we quantify trends in satellite-derived land surface temperatures and modelled air temperatures, validated against observations, across the entire ice-free Greenland. Focus is on the past 30 years, to characterize significant changes and potentially vulnerable regions at a 1 km resolution. We show that recent temperature trends in Greenland vary significantly between seasons and regions and that data with resolutions down to single km 2 are critical to map temperature changes for guidance of further local studies and decision-making. Only a fraction of the ice-free Greenland seems vulnerable due to warming when analyzing year 2001-2015, but the most pronounced changes are found in the most populated parts of Greenland. As Greenland represents important gradients of north/south coast/inland/distance to large ice sheets, the conclusions are also relevant in an upscaling to greater Arctic areas.

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.; Stocker, T. F.; Barros, V. R.; Qin, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Midgley, P. M.

2011-12-01

The Summary for Policy Makers of the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation will be approved by the world governments in November 2011. The focus of the Special Report is on climate change and its role in altering the frequency, severity, and impact of extreme events or disasters, and on the costs of both impacts and the actions taken to prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme events and disasters. The emphasis is on understanding the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, on recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and on managing the risks of disasters over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The assessment considers a broad suite of adaptations and explores the limits to adaptation. The assessment was designed to build durable links and foundations for partnerships between the stakeholder communities focused on climate change and those focused on disaster risk reduction. The Special Report begins with material that frames the issues, followed by an assessment of the reasons that communities are vulnerable. Two chapters assess the role of past and future climate change in altering extremes and the impact of these on the physical environment and human systems. Three chapters assess available knowledge on impacts and adaptation, with separate chapters considering the literature, stakeholder relationships, and potential policy tools relevant to the local, national, and international scales. Longer-term components of adaptation to weather and climate extremes and disasters are assessed in the context of moving toward sustainability. The final chapter provides case studies that integrate themes across several chapters or are so unique that they need to be considered separately.

Data and Geocomputation: Time Critical Mission Support for the 2017 Hurricane Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaduri, B. L.; Tuttle, M.; Rose, A.; Sanyal, J.; Thakur, G.; White, D.; Yang, H. H.; Laverdiere, M.; Whitehead, M.; Taylor, H.; Jacob, M.

2017-12-01

A strong spatial data infrastructure and geospatial analysis capabilities are nucleus to the decision-making process during emergency preparedness, response, and recovery operations. For over a decade, the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been developing critical data and analytical capabilities that provide the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the rest of the federal response community assess and evaluate impacts of natural hazards on population and critical infrastructures including the status of the national electricity and oil and natural gas networks. These capabilities range from identifying structures or buildings from very high-resolution satellite imagery, utilizing machine learning and high-performance computing, to daily assessment of electricity restoration highlighting changes in nighttime lights for the impacted region based on the analysis of NOAA JPSS VIIRS Day/Night Band (DNB) imagery. This presentation will highlight our time critical mission support efforts for the 2017 hurricane season that witnessed unprecedented devastation from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. ORNL provided 90m resolution LandScan USA population distribution data for identifying vulnerable population as well as structure (buildings) data extracted from 1m imagery for damage assessment. Spatially accurate data for solid waste facilities were developed and delivered to the response community. Human activity signatures were assessed from large scale collection of open source social media data around points of interests (POI) to ascertain level of destruction. The electricity transmission system was monitored in real time from data integration from hundreds of utilities and electricity outage information were provided back to the response community via standardized web-services.

U.S. Chemical Warfare Stockpile Vulnerability: Effects to Local Infrastructure From a Chemical-Agent Release

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

2 D. SCOPE, LIMITATIONS, AND ASSUMPTIONS ........................................4 E . THESIS ORGANIZATION...Summary (Blue Grass) ......................................................................53 E . PUEBLO CHEMICAL DEPOT, COLORADO...the current software implementation to handle. 5 E . THESIS ORGANIZATION Chapter II begins with a short primer on chemical agents stored at CFs in

Impacts of climate change and variability on transportation systems and infrastructure : Gulf Coast study, phase 2 : task 3.1 : screening for vulnerability.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

As part of Gulf Coast Study Phase 2, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) sought to improve its understanding of how a metropolitan transportation systemincluding highways, ports, airports, rail, transit, and pipelinescould be affec...

Cyber Infrastructure: The Forgotten Vulnerability

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-22

would like to thank my wife and children for their love and support. They truly bear the brunt of the load and they allow me to continue to serve...forms of entrepreneurship , advances in technology, the spread of free speech, and social networks that energize the economy.112 In February 2013

Towards an Enterprise Level Measure of Security

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marchant, Robert L.

2013-01-01

Vulnerabilities of Information Technology (IT) Infrastructure have grown at the similar pace (at least) as the sophistication and complexity of the technology that is the cornerstone of our IT enterprises. Despite massive increased funding for research, for development, and to support deployment of Information Assurance (IA) defenses, the damages…

Workshop on Sustainable Infrastructure with NASA Science Mission Directorate and NASA's Office of Infrastructure Representatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Brown, Molly

2009-01-01

NASA conducted a workshop in July 2009 to bring together their experts in the climate science and climate impacts domains with their institutional stewards. The workshop serves as a pilot for how a federal agency can start to: a) understand current and future climate change risks, b) develop a list of vulnerable institutional capabilities and assets, and c) develop next steps so flexible adaptation strategies can be developed and implemented. 63 attendees (26 scientists and over 30 institutional stewards) participated in the workshop, which extended across all or part of three days.

VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of vulnerability assessments with the possibility for any user to retrieve assessments using specific research criteria. Furthermore, Vuwiki can serve as a collaborative knowledge platform that allows for the active participation of those generating and using the knowledge represented in the wiki.

Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

2014-05-01

Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

Will it rise or will it fall? Managing the complex effects of urbanization on base flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bhaskar, Aditi; Beesley, Leah; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, T. D.; Hamel, Perrine; Oldham, Carolyn; Roy, Allison

2016-01-01

Sustaining natural levels of base flow is critical to maintaining ecological function as stream catchments are urbanized. Research shows a variable response of stream base flow to urbanization, with base flow or water tables rising in some locations, falling in others, or elsewhere remaining constant. The variable baseflow response is due to the array of natural (e.g., physiographic setting and climate) and anthropogenic (e.g., urban development and infrastructure) factors that influence hydrology. Perhaps as a consequence of this complexity, few simple tools exist to assist managers to predict baseflow change in their local urban area. This paper addresses this management need by presenting a decision support tool. The tool considers the natural vulnerability of the landscape, together with aspects of urban development in predicting the likelihood and direction of baseflow change. Where the tool identifies a likely increase or decrease it guides managers toward strategies that can reduce or increase groundwater recharge, respectively. Where the tool finds an equivocal result, it suggests a detailed water balance be performed. The decision support tool is embedded within an adaptive-management framework that encourages managers to define their ecological objectives, assess the vulnerability of their ecological objectives to changes in water table height, and monitor baseflow responses to urbanization. We trial our framework using two very different case studies: Perth, Western Australia, and Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Together, these studies show how pre-development water table height, climate and geology together with aspects of urban infrastructure (e.g., stormwater practices, leaky pipes) interact such that urbanization has overall led to rising base flow (Perth) and falling base flow (Baltimore). Greater consideration of subsurface components of the water cycle will help to protect and restore the ecology of urban freshwaters.

A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Synopsis of Stage 1 Research Strategy and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S.; Sun, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Corsi, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.; Suh, S.

2017-12-01

The focus of this talk is on climate adaptation and the reliability of power supply infrastructure when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. Power supply is critically dependent upon water resources, particularly to cool thermoelectric plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in the geography or seasonality of water supply. We report on results from an NSF-Funded Water Sustainability and Climate effort aimed at uncovering key energy and economic system vulnerabilities. We have developed the National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to systematically evaluate: a) the performance of the nation's electricity sector under multiple climate scenarios; b) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, c) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the economic productivity, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. Our project combines core engineering and geophysical models (ReEDS [Regional Energy Deployment System], TP2M [Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution], and WBM [Water Balance]) through unique digital "handshake" protocols that operate across different institutions and modeling platforms. Combined system outputs are fed into a regional-to-national scale economic input/output model to evaluate economic consequences of climate constraints, technology choices, and environmental regulation. The impact assessments in NEWS are carried out through a series of climate/energy policy scenario studies to 2050. We find that despite significant climate-water impacts on individual plants, the current US power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. However, the magnitude and implications of climate-water impacts vary depending on the configuration of the future power sector. To evaluate future power supply performance, we model alternative electricity sector pathways in combination with varying climate-water conditions. Further, water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies yet system-level shocks can be attenuated through different technology mixes and infrastructure.

Lessons learned from Khartoum flash flood impacts: An integrated assessment.

PubMed

Mahmood, Mohamad Ibrahim; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Horn, Finlay; Saad, Suhair A G

2017-12-01

This study aims at enabling the compilation of key lessons for decision makers and urban planners in rapidly urbanizing cities regarding the identification of representative, chief causal natural and human factors for the increased level of flash flood risk. To achieve this, the impacts of flash flood events of 2013 and 2014 in the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, were assessed using seven integrated approaches, i.e. rainfall data analysis, document analysis of affected people and houses, observational fieldwork in the worst flood affected areas, people's perception of causes and mitigation measures through household interviews, reported drinking water quality, reported water-related diseases and social risk assessment. Several lessons have been developed as follows. Urban planners must recognize the devastating risks of building within natural pathways of ephemeral watercourses. They must also ensure effective drainage infrastructures and physio-geographical investigations prior to developing urban areas. The existing urban drainage systems become ineffective due to blockage by urban waste. Building of unauthorized drainage and embankment structures by locals often cause greater flood problems than normal. The urban runoff is especially problematic for residential areas built within low-lying areas having naturally low infiltration capacity, as surface water can rapidly collect within hollows and depressions, or beside elevated roads that preclude the free flow of floodwater. Weak housing and infrastructure quality are especially vulnerable to flash flooding and even to rainfall directly. Establishment of services infrastructure is imperative for flash flood disaster risk reduction. Water supply should be from lower aquifers to avoid contaminant groundwater. Regular monitoring of water quality and archiving of its indicators help identify water-related diseases and sources of water contamination in the event of environmental disasters such as floods. Though the understanding of risk perception by the locals is an important aspect of the decision making and planning processes, it should be advanced enough for proper awareness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socio-ecological Typologies for Understanding Adaptive Capacity of a Region to Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.

2015-12-01

It is expected that the frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events will increase in coming decades with an anticipated increase in losses from climate hazards. In the Gulf Coastal region of the United States, climate hazards/disasters are common including hurricanes, drought and flooding. However, the capacity to adapt to extreme climatic events varies across the region. This adaptive capacity is linked to the magnitude of the extreme event, exposed infrastructure, and the socio-economic conditions across the region. This study uses hierarchical clustering to quantitatively integrates regional socioeconomic and biophysical factors and develop socio-ecological typologies (SET). The biophysical factors include climatic and topographic variables, and the socio-economic variables include human capital, social capital and man-made resources (infrastructure) of the region. The types of the SET are independent variables in a statistical model of a regional variable of interest. The methodology was applied to US Gulf States to evaluate the social and biophysical determinants of the regional variation in social vulnerability and economic loss to climate hazards. The results show that the SET explains much of the regional variation in social vulnerability, effectively capturing its determinants. In addition, the SET also explains of the variability in economic loss to hazards across of the region. The approach can thus be used to prioritize adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability and loss across the region.

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska.

PubMed

Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Chavan, Raj; Warren, John

2011-01-01

This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS: The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses. The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska. Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate. The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures.

Towards large-scale mapping of urban three-dimensional structure using Landsat imagery and global elevation datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P.; Huang, C.

2017-12-01

The three-dimensional (3D) structure of buildings and infrastructures is fundamental to understanding and modelling of the impacts and challenges of urbanization in terms of energy use, carbon emissions, and earthquake vulnerabilities. However, spatially detailed maps of urban 3D structure have been scarce, particularly in fast-changing developing countries. We present here a novel methodology to map the volume of buildings and infrastructures at 30 meter resolution using a synergy of Landsat imagery and openly available global digital surface models (DSMs), including the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ASTER Global Digital Elevation Map (GDEM), ALOS World 3D - 30m (AW3D30), and the recently released global DSM from the TanDEM-X mission. Our method builds on the concept of object-based height profile to extract height metrics from the DSMs and use a machine learning algorithm to predict height and volume from the height metrics. We have tested this algorithm in the entire England and assessed our result using Lidar measurements in 25 England cities. Our initial assessments achieved a RMSE of 1.4 m (R2 = 0.72) for building height and a RMSE of 1208.7 m3 (R2 = 0.69) for building volume, demonstrating the potential of large-scale applications and fully automated mapping of urban structure.

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska

PubMed Central

Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Chavan, Raj; Warren, John

2011-01-01

This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. Background In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. Implementation process The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses. Objective The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska. Findings Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate. Conclusion The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures. PMID:22022304

Spatial Databases for CalVO Volcanoes: Current Status and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, D. W.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) California Volcano Observatory (CalVO) aims to advance scientific understanding of volcanic processes and to lessen harmful impacts of volcanic activity in California and Nevada. Within CalVO's area of responsibility, ten volcanoes or volcanic centers have been identified by a national volcanic threat assessment in support of developing the U.S. National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) as posing moderate, high, or very high threats to surrounding communities based on their recent eruptive histories and their proximity to vulnerable people, property, and infrastructure. To better understand the extent of potential hazards at these and other volcanoes and volcanic centers, the USGS Volcano Science Center (VSC) is continually compiling spatial databases of volcano information, including: geologic mapping, hazards assessment maps, locations of geochemical and geochronological samples, and the distribution of volcanic vents. This digital mapping effort has been ongoing for over 15 years and early databases are being converted to match recent datasets compiled with new data models designed for use in: 1) generating hazard zones, 2) evaluating risk to population and infrastructure, 3) numerical hazard modeling, and 4) display and query on the CalVO as well as other VSC and USGS websites. In these capacities, spatial databases of CalVO volcanoes and their derivative map products provide an integrated and readily accessible framework of VSC hazards science to colleagues, emergency managers, and the general public.

ELER software - a new tool for urban earthquake loss assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancilar, U.; Tuzun, C.; Yenidogan, C.; Erdik, M.

2010-12-01

Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. A methodology and software package, ELER-Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES". Recently, a new version (v2.0) of ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology developed is capable of incorporating regional variability and uncertainty originating from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily intended for quasi real-time estimation of earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also equally capable of incorporating scenario-based earthquake loss assessments. This paper introduces the urban earthquake loss assessment module (Level 2) of the ELER software which makes use of the most detailed inventory databases of physical and social elements at risk in combination with the analytical vulnerability relationships and building damage-related casualty vulnerability models for the estimation of building damage and casualty distributions, respectively. Spectral capacity-based loss assessment methodology and its vital components are presented. The analysis methods of the Level 2 module, i.e. Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC-40, 1996), Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method (FEMA 440, 2005), Reduction Factor Method (Fajfar, 2000) and Coefficient Method (ASCE 41-06, 2006), are applied to the selected building types for validation and verification purposes. The damage estimates are compared to the results obtained from the other studies available in the literature, i.e. SELENA v4.0 (Molina et al., 2008) and ATC-55 (Yang, 2005). An urban loss assessment exercise for a scenario earthquake for the city of Istanbul is conducted and physical and social losses are presented. Damage to the urban environment is compared to the results obtained from similar software, i.e. KOERILoss (KOERI, 2002) and DBELA (Crowley et al., 2004). The European rapid loss estimation tool is expected to help enable effective emergency response, on both local and global level, as well as public information.

US Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Vink, G.; Apgar, S.; Batchelor, A.; Carter, C.; Gail, D.; Jarrett, A.; Levine, N.; Morgan, W.; Orlikowski, M.; Pray, T.; Raymar, M.; Siebert, A.; Shawa, T. W.; Wallace, C.

2002-05-01

Natural disasters result from the coincidence of natural events with the built environment. Our nation's infrastructure is growing at an exponential rate in many areas of high risk, and the Federal government's liability is increasing proportionally. By superimposing population density with predicted ground motion from earthquakes, historical hurricane tracks, historical tornado locations, and areas within the flood plain, we are able to identify locations of high vulnerability within the United States. We present a comprehensive map of disaster risk for the United States that is being produced for the Senate Natural Hazards Caucus. The map allows for the geographic comparison of natural disaster risk with past disaster declarations, the expenditure of Federal dollars for disaster relief, population increase, and variations of GDP. Every state is vulnerable to natural disasters. Although their frequency varies considerably, the annualized losses for disaster relief from hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods are approximately equivalent. While fast-growing states such as California and Florida remain highly vulnerable, changes in the occurrence of natural events combined with population increases are making areas such as Texas, North Carolina, and the East Coast increasingly vulnerable.

Mapping the Human Planet: Integrating Settlement, Infrastructure, and Population Data to Support Sustainable Development, Climate, and Disaster Data Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; de Sherbinin, A. M.; Yetman, G.; Downs, R. R.

2017-12-01

A central issue in international efforts to address climate change, large-scale disaster risk, and overall sustainable development is the exposure of human settlements and population to changing climate patterns and a range of geological, climatological, technological, and other hazards. The present and future location of human activities is also important in mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and to ensuring that we "leave no one behind" in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the international community in September 2015. The extent and quality of built infrastructure are key factors in the mortality, morbidity, and economic impacts of disasters, and are simultaneously essential to sustainable development. Earth observations have great potential to improve the coverage, consistency, timeliness, and richness of data on settlements, infrastructure, and population, in ways that complement existing and emerging forms of socioeconomic data collection such as censuses, surveys, and cell phone and Internet traffic. Night-time lights from the Suomi-NPP satellite may be able to provide near real-time data on occupance and economic activity. New "big data" capabilities make it possible to rapidly process high-resolution (50-cm) imagery to detect structures and changes in structures, especially in rural areas where other data are limited. A key challenge is to ensure that these types of data can be translated into forms useful in a range of applications and for diverse user communities, including national statistical offices, local government planners, development and humanitarian organizations, community groups, and the private sector. We report here on efforts, in coordination with the GEO Human Planet Initiative, to develop new data on settlements, infrastructure, and population, together with open data services and tools, to support disaster risk assessment, climate vulnerability analysis, and sustainable development decision making.

Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

2016-04-01

Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national vulnerability assessment is carried out for the entire Oman coastal area comprising 30 coastal wilayats, whereas the local sensitivity assessment is performed for the 9 coastal study areas. This work also connects vulnerability-risk assessment results to site-specific and target-oriented risk reduction measures. Results identify high risk areas along the coast of Oman in which measures for risk reduction are proposed. The identification and prioritization of mitigation measures were supported by a panel of local and international experts developed during a Risk Assessment Workshop held in Oman and a handbook containing the mitigation measures at national and local scales was developed and delivered to the stakeholders. We would like to thank the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Government of the Sultanate of Oman (MOTC), Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN), Public Authority for Civil Aviation (PACA), for supporting and funding this project and the collaboration of the IOC-UNESCO personnel. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe).

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability...

Assessment of infrastructure functional damages caused by natural-technological disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massabò, Marco; Trasforini, Eva; Traverso, Stefania; Rudari, Roberto; De Angeli, Silvia; Cecinati, Francesca; Cerruti, Valentina

2013-04-01

The assessment of infrastructure damages caused by technological disaster poses several challenges, from gathering needed information on the territorial system to the definition of functionality curves for infrastructures elements (such as, buildings, road school) that are exposed to both natural and technological event. Moreover, areas affected by natural or natech (technological disasters triggered by natural events) disasters have often very large extensions and a rapid survey of them to gather all the needed information is a very difficult task, for many reasons, not least the difficult access to the existing databases and resources. We use multispectral optical imagery with other geographical and unconventional data to identify and characterize exposed elements. Our efforts in the virtual survey and during the investigation steps have different aims: to identify the vulnerability of infrastructures, buildings or activities; to execute calculations of exposition to risk; to estimate physical and functional damages. Subsequently, we apply specific algorithms to estimate values of acting forces and physical and functional damages. The updated picture of target areas in terms of risk-prone people, infrastructures and their connections is very important. It is possible to develop algorithms providing values of systemic functionality for each network element. The methodology is here applied to a natech disaster, arising from the combination of a flood event (specifically, the January 2010 flooding of Drin and Buna rivers, with a worsening in the road safety levels in the Shkoder area) with and the subsequent overturning of a truck transporting hazardous material. The accident causes the loss of containment and the total material release. Once the release has taken place, the evolution will depend on the physical state of the substance spilled (liquid, gas or dust). As a specific case we consider the rupture of a trucks transporting liquid fuels such as gasoline through Shkoder downtown. Goods entering in Albania from north pass through Shkoder, indeed a high traffic road that connects Albania with Montenegro and Kosovo crosses Shkoder downtown. We consider a truck overturned in downtown Shkoder during the flooding of January 2010; the gasoline transported by the truck is completely released and a pool fire develops damaging roads. We use the model CHESRM (Chemical Spill Risk Mapper) for identify the threat zones of the accident and as a basis for assessing the potential leads to functional damages to other elements of the considered system. The application of the methodology shows the potential use not only on real time emergency management or prevention but also during post-event management for the evaluation of the functional damage to the affected infrastructure (villages isolated from the rest of the network, villages unable to reach schools, hospitals or other services...) and to set a hierarchy in restoration activities, giving priority to the reconstruction of links between primary nodes.

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2014-12-01

Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional training and exercises.

Vehicles instability criteria for flood risk assessment of a street network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Huybrechts, Nicolas; Ouahsine, Abdellatif; Chassé, Patrick; Oumeraci, Hocine; Castelli, Fabio

2016-05-01

The mutual interaction between floods and human activity is a process, which has been evolving over history and has shaped flood risk pathways. In developed countries, many events have illustrated that the majority of the fatalities during a flood occurs in a vehicle, which is considered as a safe shelter but it may turn into a trap for several combinations of water depth and velocity. Thus, driving a car in floodwaters is recognized as the most crucial aggravating factor for people safety. On the other hand, the entrainment of vehicles may locally cause obstructions to the flow and induce the collapse of infrastructures. Flood risk to vehicles can be defined as the combination of the probability of a vehicle of being swept away (i.e. the hazard) and the actual traffic/parking density, i.e. the vulnerability. Hazard for vehicles can be assessed through the spatial identification and mapping of the critical conditions for vehicles incipient motion. This analysis requires a flood map with information on water depth and velocity and consistent instability criteria accounting for flood and vehicles characteristics. Vulnerability is evaluated thanks to the road network and traffic data. Therefore, vehicles flood risk mapping can support people's education and management practices in order to reduce the casualties. In this work, a flood hazard classification for vehicles is introduced and an application to a real case study is presented and discussed.

Accessibility assessment of Houston's roadway network during Harvey through integration of observed flood impacts and hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidaris, I.; Gori, A.; Panakkal, P.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

2017-12-01

The record-breaking rainfall produced over the Houston region by Hurricane Harvey resulted in catastrophic and unprecedented impacts on the region's infrastructure. Notably, Houston's transportation network was crippled, with almost every major highway flooded during the five-day event. Entire neighborhoods and subdivisions were inundated, rendering them completely inaccessible to rescue crews and emergency services. Harvey has tragically highlighted the vulnerability of major thoroughfares, as well as neighborhood roads, to severe inundation during extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, it has emphasized the need for detailed accessibility characterization of road networks under extreme event scenarios in order to determine which areas of the city are most vulnerable. This analysis assesses and tracks the accessibility of Houston's major highways during Harvey's evolution by utilizing road flood/closure data from the Texas DOT. In the absence of flooded/closure data for local roads, a hybrid approach is adopted that utilizes a physics-based hydrologic model to produce high-resolution inundation estimates for selected urban watersheds in the Houston area. In particular, hydrologic output in the form of inundation depths is used to estimate the operability of local roads. Ultimately, integration of hydrologic-based estimation of road conditions with observed data from DOT supports a network accessibility analysis of selected urban neighborhoods. This accessibility analysis can identify operable routes for emergency response (rescue crews, medical services, etc.) during the storm event.

Sinking coastal cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkens, G.; Bucx, T.; Dam, R.; de Lange, G.; Lambert, J.

2015-11-01

In many coastal and delta cities land subsidence now exceeds absolute sea level rise up to a factor of ten. A major cause for severe land subsidence is excessive groundwater extraction related to rapid urbanization and population growth. Without action, parts of Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok and numerous other coastal cities will sink below sea level. Land subsidence increases flood vulnerability (frequency, inundation depth and duration of floods), with floods causing major economic damage and loss of lives. In addition, differential land movement causes significant economic losses in the form of structural damage and high maintenance costs for (infra)structure. The total damage worldwide is estimated at billions of dollars annually. As subsidence is often spatially variable and can be caused by multiple processes, an assessment of subsidence in delta cities needs to answer questions such as: what are the main causes? What is the current subsidence rate and what are future scenarios (and interaction with other major environmental issues)? Where are the vulnerable areas? What are the impacts and risks? How can adverse impacts be mitigated or compensated for? Who is involved and responsible to act? In this study a quick-assessment of subsidence is performed on the following mega-cities: Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Dhaka, New Orleans and Bangkok. Results of these case studies will be presented and compared, and a (generic) approach how to deal with subsidence in current and future subsidence-prone areas is provided.

Big Data Analytics for Disaster Preparedness and Response of Mobile Communication Infrastructure during Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, L.; Takano, K.; Ji, Y.; Yamada, S.

2015-12-01

The disruption of telecommunications is one of the most critical disasters during natural hazards. As the rapid expanding of mobile communications, the mobile communication infrastructure plays a very fundamental role in the disaster response and recovery activities. For this reason, its disruption will lead to loss of life and property, due to information delays and errors. Therefore, disaster preparedness and response of mobile communication infrastructure itself is quite important. In many cases of experienced disasters, the disruption of mobile communication networks is usually caused by the network congestion and afterward long-term power outage. In order to reduce this disruption, the knowledge of communication demands during disasters is necessary. And big data analytics will provide a very promising way to predict the communication demands by analyzing the big amount of operational data of mobile users in a large-scale mobile network. Under the US-Japan collaborative project on 'Big Data and Disaster Research (BDD)' supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and National Science Foundation (NSF), we are going to investigate the application of big data techniques in the disaster preparedness and response of mobile communication infrastructure. Specifically, in this research, we have considered to exploit the big amount of operational information of mobile users for predicting the communications needs in different time and locations. By incorporating with other data such as shake distribution of an estimated major earthquake and the power outage map, we are able to provide the prediction information of stranded people who are difficult to confirm safety or ask for help due to network disruption. In addition, this result could further facilitate the network operators to assess the vulnerability of their infrastructure and make suitable decision for the disaster preparedness and response. In this presentation, we are going to introduce the results we obtained based on the big data analytics of mobile user statistical information and discuss the implications of these results.

IMPACT2C: Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, D.; Kotova, L.; Impact2C Team

2012-04-01

Political discussions on the European goal to limit global warming to 2°C demand, that information is provided to society by the best available science on projected impacts and possible benefits. The new project IMPACT2C is supported by the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme as a 4 year large-scale integrating project. IMPACT2C is coordinated by the Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht. IMPACT2C enhances knowledge, quantifies climate change impacts, and adopts a clear and logical structure, with climate and impacts modelling, vulnerabilities, risks and economic costs, as well as potential responses, within a pan-European sector based analysis. The project utilises a range of models within a multi-disciplinary international expert team and assesses effects on water, energy, infrastructure, coasts, tourism, forestry, agriculture, ecosystems services, and health and air quality-climate interactions. IMPACT2C introduces key innovations. First, harmonised socio-economic assumptions/scenarios will be used, to ensure that both individual and cross-sector assessments are aligned to the 2°C (1.5°C) scenario for both impacts and adaptation, e.g. in relation to land-use pressures between agriculture and forestry. Second, it has a core theme of uncertainty, and will develop a methodological framework integrating the uncertainties within and across the different sectors, in a consistent way. In so doing, analysis of adaptation responses under uncertainty will be enhanced. Finally, a cross-sectoral perspective is adopted to complement the sector analysis. A number of case studies will be developed for particularly vulnerable areas, subject to multiple impacts (e.g. the Mediterranean), with the focus being on cross-sectoral interactions (e.g. land use competition) and cross-cutting themes (e.g. cities). The project also assesses climate change impacts in some of the world's most vulnerable regions: Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins), and the Maldives. An overview about the scientific goals and the structure of IMPACT2C will be presented.

Hurricane Warning: the Critical Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Science Foundation, 2007

2007-01-01

The United States possesses the most capable research enterprise, the largest economy, and the most sophisticated societal infrastructure in the world, yet it remains notably vulnerable to catastrophic damage and loss of life from natural hazards. Among weather hazards, hurricanes account for over half of the total damage inflicted. Despite their…

Nonprofit Sector: Workforce Education Needs and Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garvey, David

2009-01-01

When some people think of nonprofit organizations, they think of small charities that are short-staffed, often struggle financially, and provide basic human needs to the most vulnerable in the society. Others think of organizations that support the civic and social infrastructure of communities, states, and nation, and serve as a vital component…

Terminal Blackout: Critical Electric Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Civil-Military Resiliency

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

William R. Graham, Robert J. Hermann, Henry M. Kluepfel, Richard L. Lawson, Gordon K. Soper , Lowell L. Wood, Jr., and Joan B. Woodard, Report of the...R. Graham, Robert J. Hermann, Henry M. Kluepfel, Richard L. Lawson, Gordon K. Soper , Lowell L. Wood, Jr., and Joan B. Woodard, Report of the

Anomaly Detection Techniques for Ad Hoc Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cai, Chaoli

2009-01-01

Anomaly detection is an important and indispensable aspect of any computer security mechanism. Ad hoc and mobile networks consist of a number of peer mobile nodes that are capable of communicating with each other absent a fixed infrastructure. Arbitrary node movements and lack of centralized control make them vulnerable to a wide variety of…

Shock waves on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mones, Enys; Araújo, Nuno A. M.; Vicsek, Tamás; Herrmann, Hans J.

2014-05-01

Power grids, road maps, and river streams are examples of infrastructural networks which are highly vulnerable to external perturbations. An abrupt local change of load (voltage, traffic density, or water level) might propagate in a cascading way and affect a significant fraction of the network. Almost discontinuous perturbations can be modeled by shock waves which can eventually interfere constructively and endanger the normal functionality of the infrastructure. We study their dynamics by solving the Burgers equation under random perturbations on several real and artificial directed graphs. Even for graphs with a narrow distribution of node properties (e.g., degree or betweenness), a steady state is reached exhibiting a heterogeneous load distribution, having a difference of one order of magnitude between the highest and average loads. Unexpectedly we find for the European power grid and for finite Watts-Strogatz networks a broad pronounced bimodal distribution for the loads. To identify the most vulnerable nodes, we introduce the concept of node-basin size, a purely topological property which we show to be strongly correlated to the average load of a node.

A secure and efficiently searchable health information architecture.

PubMed

Yasnoff, William A

2016-06-01

Patient-centric repositories of health records are an important component of health information infrastructure. However, patient information in a single repository is potentially vulnerable to loss of the entire dataset from a single unauthorized intrusion. A new health record storage architecture, the personal grid, eliminates this risk by separately storing and encrypting each person's record. The tradeoff for this improved security is that a personal grid repository must be sequentially searched since each record must be individually accessed and decrypted. To allow reasonable search times for large numbers of records, parallel processing with hundreds (or even thousands) of on-demand virtual servers (now available in cloud computing environments) is used. Estimated search times for a 10 million record personal grid using 500 servers vary from 7 to 33min depending on the complexity of the query. Since extremely rapid searching is not a critical requirement of health information infrastructure, the personal grid may provide a practical and useful alternative architecture that eliminates the large-scale security vulnerabilities of traditional databases by sacrificing unnecessary searching speed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

INcreasing Security and Protection through Infrastructure REsilience: The INSPIRE Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Antonio, Salvatore; Romano, Luigi; Khelil, Abdelmajid; Suri, Neeraj

The INSPIRE project aims at enhancing the European potential in the field of security by ensuring the protection of critical information infrastructures through (a) the identification of their vulnerabilities and (b) the development of innovative techniques for securing networked process control systems. To increase the resilience of such systems INSPIRE will develop traffic engineering algorithms, diagnostic processes and self-reconfigurable architectures along with recovery techniques. Hence, the core idea of the INSPIRE project is to protect critical information infrastructures by appropriately configuring, managing, and securing the communication network which interconnects the distributed control systems. A working prototype will be implemented as a final demonstrator of selected scenarios. Controls/Communication Experts will support project partners in the validation and demonstration activities. INSPIRE will also contribute to standardization process in order to foster multi-operator interoperability and coordinated strategies for securing lifeline systems.

Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2016-01-01

Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

Multi Hazard Assessment: The Azores Archipelagos (PT) case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aifantopoulou, Dorothea; Boni, Giorgio; Cenci, Luca; Kaskara, Maria; Kontoes, Haris; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Paralikidis, Sideris; Psichogyiou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Tsouni, Alexia; Xerekakis, Themos

2016-04-01

The COPERNICUS EMS Risk & Recovery Mapping (RRM) activity offers services to support efficient design and implementation of mitigation measures and recovery planning based on EO data exploitation. The Azores Archipelagos case was realized in the context of the FWC 259811 Copernicus EMS RRM, and provides potential impact information for a number of natural disasters. The analysis identified population and assets at risk (infrastructures and environment). The risk assessment was based on hazard and vulnerability of structural elements, road network characteristics, etc. Integration of different hazards and risks was accounted in establishing the necessary first response/ first aid infrastructure. EO data (Pleiades and WV-2), were used to establish a detailed background information, common for the assessment of the whole of the risks. A qualitative Flood hazard level was established, through a "Flood Susceptibility Index" that accounts for upstream drainage area and local slope along the drainage network (Manfreda et al. 2014). Indicators, representing different vulnerability typologies, were accounted for. The risk was established through intersecting hazard and vulnerability (risk- specific lookup table). Probabilistic seismic hazards maps (PGA) were obtained by applying the Cornell (1968) methodology as implemented in CRISIS2007 (Ordaz et al. 2007). The approach relied on the identification of potential sources, the assessment of earthquake recurrence and magnitude distribution, the selection of ground motion model, and the mathematical model to calculate seismic hazard. Lava eruption areas and a volcanic activity related coefficient were established through available historical data. Lava flow paths and their convergence were estimated through applying a cellular, automata based, Lava Flow Hazard numerical model (Gestur Leó Gislason, 2013). The Landslide Hazard Index of NGI (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute) for heavy rainfall (100 year extreme monthly rainfall) and earthquake (475 years return period) was used. Topography, lithology, soil moisture and LU/LC were also accounted for. Soil erosion risk was assessed through the empirical model RUSLE (Renard et al. 1991b). Rainfall erosivity, topography and vegetation cover are the main parameters which were used for predicting the proneness to soil loss. Expected, maximum tsunami wave heights were estimated for a specific earthquake scenario at designated forecast points along the coasts. Deformation at the source was calculated by utilizing the Okada code (Okada, 1985). Tsunami waves' generation and propagation is based on the SWAN model (JRC/IPSC modification). To estimate the wave height (forecast points) the Green's Law function was used (JRC Tsunami Analysis Tool). Storm tracks' historical data indicate a return period of 17 /41 years for H1 /H2 hurricane categories respectively. NOAA WAVEWATCH III model hindcast reanalysis was used to estimate the maximum significant wave height (wind and swell) along the coastline during two major storms. The associated storm-surge risk assessment accounted also for the coastline morphology. Seven empirical (independent) indicators were used to express the erosion susceptibility of the coasts. Each indicator is evaluated according to a semi?quantitative score that represents low, medium and high level of erosion risk or impact. The estimation of the coastal erosion hazard was derived through aggregating the indicators in a grid scale.

Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

2017-07-01

In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Climate Resiliency Planning Process and Lessons Learned

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fowler, Kimberly M.; Judd, Kathleen S.; Brandenberger, Jill M.

2016-02-22

In 2015, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed its first Climate Resilience Plan for its Richland Campus. PNNL has performed Climate Resilience Planning for the Department of Defense, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and Department of Energy (DOE) over the past 5 years. The assessment team included climate scientists, social scientists, engineers, and operations managers. A multi-disciplinary team was needed to understand the potential exposures to future changes at the site, the state of the science on future impacts, and the best process for “mainstreaming” new actions into existing activities. The team uncovered that the site’s greatest vulnerabilities, and therefore prioritiesmore » for climate resilience planning, are high temperature due to degraded infrastructure, increased wildfire frequency, and intense precipitation impacts on stormwater conveyance systems.« less

The development of a vulnerabilities indicator library for coastal flood risk management at a European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, Damon; Viavattene, Christophe; Priest, Sally; Micou, Paula; Parker, Dennis

2015-04-01

Recent and historic low-frequency, high-impact events (Xynthia, Ligurian Flash Floods, the 1953 North Sea storm surge etc) have demonstrated the flood risks faced by exposed coastal areas in Europe. The hazard probability is likely to increase due to a changing climate with more frequent and violent instances of surge-driven floods, wind damage, erosion, overtopping and rain-driven flash flooding. The number and value of receptors in the coastal area also increases due to continued economic development and population growth. As part of the FP7 EU RISCKIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts toolkit) project, a coastal vulnerability indicator library has been produced incorporating ecosystems, built environment, human population, critical infrastructure and the overall characteristics of the coastal system. The library will include data at European, national and local levels and will be gathered, in large part, through a multitude of interviews with various members of the coastal community at 11 case study sites across Europe. The presentation will give a brief outline of the challenges in developing vulnerability indicators - particularly for countries where specific data is limited or lacking - and how the library will be organised to facilitate the use of the data. Finally, the presentation will describe how the vulnerability library will feed into a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF). The CRAF will evaluate coastal risk at regional scale and identify "hot spots" to assist coastal practitioners to choose the best prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures for their coast. The work described in this abstract was supported by the European Community's 7th Framework Programme through the grant to the budget of RISC-KIT, contract no. 603458, and by contributions by the partner institutes.

Wireless structural monitoring for homeland security applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiremidjian, Garo K.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.; Lynch, Jerome P.

2004-07-01

This paper addresses the development of a robust, low-cost, low power, and high performance autonomous wireless monitoring system for civil assets such as large facilities, new construction, bridges, dams, commercial buildings, etc. The role of the system is to identify the onset, development, location and severity of structural vulnerability and damage. The proposed system represents an enabling infrastructure for addressing structural vulnerabilities specifically associated with homeland security. The system concept is based on dense networks of "intelligent" wireless sensing units. The fundamental properties of a wireless sensing unit include: (a) interfaces to multiple sensors for measuring structural and environmental data (such as acceleration, displacements, pressure, strain, material degradation, temperature, gas agents, biological agents, humidity, corrosion, etc.); (b) processing of sensor data with embedded algorithms for assessing damage and environmental conditions; (c) peer-to-peer wireless communications for information exchange among units(thus enabling joint "intelligent" processing coordination) and storage of data and processed information in servers for information fusion; (d) ultra low power operation; (e) cost-effectiveness and compact size through the use of low-cost small-size off-the-shelf components. An integral component of the overall system concept is a decision support environment for interpretation and dissemination of information to various decision makers.

Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review.

PubMed

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

2018-04-18

Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links.

Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanisch, Jörg

A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

Assessing the security vulnerabilities of correctional facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, Debra D.; Morrison, G. Steve

1998-12-01

The National Institute of Justice has tasked their satellite facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps identify the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion from outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees. In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

PubMed

Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

2018-05-01

Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards Large-Scale, Non-Destructive Inspection of Concrete Bridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoud, A.; Shah, A. H.; Popplewell, N.

2005-04-01

It is estimated that the rehabilitation of deteriorating engineering infrastructure in the harsh North American environment could cost billions of dollars. Bridges are key infrastructure components for surface transportation. Steel-free and fibre-reinforced concrete is used increasingly nowadays to circumvent the vulnerability of steel rebar to corrosion. Existing steel-free and fibre-reinforced bridges may experience extensive surface-breaking cracks that need to be characterized without incurring further damage. In the present study, a method that uses Lamb elastic wave propagation to non-destructively characterize cracks in plain as well as fibre-reinforced concrete is investigated both numerically and experimentally. Numerical and experimental data are corroborated with good agreement.

Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

2014-05-01

Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the implementation of the RRA methodology. The main output of the analysis are climate risk products produced with the DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) and represented by GIS-based maps and statistics of hazard, exposure, physical and environmental vulnerability, risk and damage. These maps are useful to transfer information about climate change impacts to stakeholders and decision makers, to allow the classification and prioritization of areas that are likely to be affected by climate change impacts more severely than others in the same region, and therefore to support the identification of suitable areas for infrastructure, economic activities and human settlements toward the development of regional adaptation plans. The climate risk products and the results of North Adriatic case study will be here presented and discussed.

Heat stress and public health: a critical review.

PubMed

Kovats, R Sari; Hajat, Shakoor

2008-01-01

Heat is an environmental and occupational hazard. The prevention of deaths in the community caused by extreme high temperatures (heat waves) is now an issue of public health concern. The risk of heat-related mortality increases with natural aging, but persons with particular social and/or physical vulnerability are also at risk. Important differences in vulnerability exist between populations, depending on climate, culture, infrastructure (housing), and other factors. Public health measures include health promotion and heat wave warning systems, but the effectiveness of acute measures in response to heat waves has not yet been formally evaluated. Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of heat waves, and a range of measures, including improvements to housing, management of chronic diseases, and institutional care of the elderly and the vulnerable, will need to be developed to reduce health impacts.

Landslide hazard assessment : LIFE+IMAGINE project methodology and Liguria region use case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spizzichino, Daniele; Campo, Valentina; Congi, Maria Pia; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Leoni, Gabriele; Trigila, Alessandro

2015-04-01

Scope of the work is to present a methodology developed for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement a web services-based infrastructure addressed to environmental analysis, that integrates, in its own architecture, specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services has been customized to provide functionalities for supporting environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure has been applied to landslide risk scenarios, developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. The landslide pilot and related scenario are focused at providing a simplified Landslide Risk Assessment (LRA) through: 1) a landslide inventory derived from available historical and recent databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements 5) development of a use case; 6) definition of guidelines, best practices and production of thematic maps. The LRA has been implemented in Liguria region, Italy, in two different catchment areas located in the Cinque Terre National Park, characterized by a high landslide susceptibility and low resilience. The landslide risk impact analysis has been calibrated taking into account the socio-economic damage caused by landslides triggered by the October 2011 meteorological event. During this event, over 600 landslides were triggered in the selected pilot area. Most of landslides affected the diffuse system of anthropogenic terraces and caused the direct disruption of the walls as well as transportation of a large amount of loose sediments along the slopes and channels as induced consequence of the event. Application of a spatial analysis detected ca. 400 critical point along the road network with an average length of about 200 m. Over 1,000 buildings were affected and damaged by the event. The exposed population in the area involved by the event has been estimated in ca. 2,600 inhabitants (people?). In the pilot area, 19 different typologies of Cultural Heritage were affected by landslide phenomena or located in zones classified as high landslide hazard. The final scope of the landslide scenario is to improve the awareness on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and landslide risk in the Cinque Terre National Park to the benefit of local authorities and population. In addition, the results of the application will be used for updating the land planning process in order to improve the resilience of local communities, ii) implementing cost-benefit analysis aimed at the definition of guidelines for sustainable landslide risk mitigation strategies, iii) suggesting a general road map for the implementation of a local adaptation plan.

77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA... conducting vulnerability assessments became available and usage of the TMSARM has dropped off considerably...

Vulnerability of settlements around Mt. Cameroon volcano, Cameroon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zogning, Appolinaire; Spinetti, Claudia; Ngouanet, Chretien; Tchoudam, David; Kouokam, Emmanuel; Thierry, Pierre; Bignami, Christian; Fabrizia Buongiorno, Maria; Ilaria Pannaccione Apa, Maria

2010-05-01

Located at the bottom of the Gulf of Guinea, Cameroon is exposed to a large variety of natural hazards, including volcanism. Most of the hazard are concentrated around the active volcano Mt. Cameroon which combines effusive and explosive types of activity. The threatened stakes are numerous and different exposed: people, settlements, industrial plantations, petrol refinery and many other factories and infrastructures. Until 2005, no risk management plans has been available. In 2006, the French Embassy in Cameroon, within the framework of a financial convention between Cameroon and France, put in place the GRINP (Management of Natural Risks and Civil Protection) project whose objective was to reinforce the capacity of Cameroon's civil protection department and thus, contribute to the improvement of the security of the population faced with catastrophes. The objective was to realize a Risk Prevention Plan at a local council scale, and taking into consideration the specific natural risks of each zone. The general objective of the RPP was to clearly draw land use maps for risks zones, showing the overlay of stakes with risk of different intensities. In 2008 European Commission funded the Mia-Vita project (Mitigating and Assessing Volcanic Impacts on Terrain and human Activities). The aim of the project is to improve the crisis management capabilities based on monitoring and early warning systems and secure communications; reduction of people's vulnerability and development of recovering capabilities after an event occurs for both local communities and ecological systems. Keyword: natural hazards, Mt. Cameroon, vulnerability, risk prevention plan

Possible Climate Change/Variability and Human Impacts, Vulnerability of African Drought Prone Regions, its Water Resources and Capacity Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, T. Y. Y.; Qin, X.; Ito, M.; Hülsmann, S.; Xixi, L.; Liong, S. Y.; Disse, M.; Koivusalo, H. J.

2017-12-01

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and landuse to drought-prone regions in West, Southern, and Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid-20th century. Based on the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, and that of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st Century and could become more vulnerable to impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase up to 8oC (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillation which could also affect water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions, are also discussed. Given traditional climate and hydrologic data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill in the data gap for Africa in future.

Assessing the Utility of a Satellite-Based Flood Inundation and Socio-Economic Impact Tool for the Lower Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

2016-12-01

Flood disaster events in Southeast Asia result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Remote sensing information systems designed to monitor floods and assess their severity can help governments and international agencies formulate an effective response before and during flood events, and ultimately alleviate impacts to population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Recent examples of destructive flood events in the Lower Mekong River Basin occurred in 2000, 2011, and 2013. Floods can be particularly costly in the developing countries of Southeast Asia where large portions of the population live on or near the floodplain (Jonkman, 2005; Kirsch et al., 2012; Long and Trong, 2001; Stromberg. 2007). Regional studies (Knox, 1993; Mirza, 2002; Schiermeier, 2011; Västilä et al, 2010) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) projections suggest that precipitation extremes and flood frequency are increasing. Thus, improved systems to rapidly monitor flooding in vulnerable areas are needed. This study determines surface water extent for current and historic flood events by using stacks of historic multispectral Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-meter imagery and the spectral Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signatures of permanent water bodies (MOD44W). Supporting software tools automatically assess flood impacts to population and infrastructure to provide a rapid first set of impact numbers generated hours after the onset of an event. The near real-time component uses twice daily imagery acquired at 3-hour latency, and performs image compositing routines to minimize cloud cover. Case studies for historic flood events are presented. Results suggest that near real-time remote sensing-based observation and impact assessment systems can serve as effective regional decision support tools for governments, international agencies, and disaster responders.

Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L

2011-01-01

There is growing demand among stakeholders across public and private institutions for spatially-explicit information regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. However, the challenges associated with mapping the geography of climate change vulnerability are non-trivial, both conceptually and technically, suggesting the need for more critical evaluation of this practice. Here, we review climate change vulnerability mapping in the context of four key questions that are fundamental to assessment design. First, what are the goals of the assessment? A review of published assessments yields a range of objective statements that emphasize problem orientation or decision-making about adaptation actions. Second,more » how is the assessment of vulnerability framed? Assessments vary with respect to what values are assessed (vulnerability of what) and the underlying determinants of vulnerability that are considered (vulnerability to what). The selected frame ultimately influences perceptions of the primary driving forces of vulnerability as well as preferences regarding management alternatives. Third, what are the technical methods by which an assessment is conducted? The integration of vulnerability determinants into a common map remains an emergent and subjective practice associated with a number of methodological challenges. Fourth, who participates in the assessment and how will it be used to facilitate change? Assessments are often conducted under the auspices of benefiting stakeholders, yet many lack direct engagement with stakeholders. Each of these questions is reviewed in turn by drawing on an illustrative set of 45 vulnerability mapping studies appearing in the literature. A number of pathways for placing vulnerability« less

49 CFR 15.5 - Sensitive security information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... requirements of Federal law. (5) Vulnerability assessments. Any vulnerability assessment directed, created... security requirements of Federal law that could reveal a security vulnerability, including the identity of... Guard responsible for conducting vulnerability assessments, security boardings, or engaged in operations...

2001 Industry Studies: Financial Services

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-01-01

financial services firms are also positioning to compete here and abroad with international firms. Advances in information technology continue to provide...future. A veritable revolution is taking place within the financial services industry. Globalization, information technology and continuing... technological infrastructure that must be protected. Industry vulnerabilities will continue to increase as use of the Internet , e-commerce, and e-banking become

Decision-Making Uncertainty and the Use of Force in Cyberspace: A Phenomenological Study of Military Officers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caudle, Daryl L.

2010-01-01

The nation's critical infrastructure, information systems, and telecommunication networks are vulnerable and threatened by an ever-growing number of attacks in cyberspace. An essential element of the nation's comprehensive approach to cybersecurity is the ability for the Department of Defense to protect and defend its information enterprise.…

Security challenge to using smartphones for SHM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abueh, Yeka; Liu, Hong

2016-04-01

Pervasive smartphones have demonstrated great potential in structural health monitoring (SHM) of civil infrastructures. Their sensing, processing, and communication capabilities along with crowdsourcing facility ease technical difficulties and reduce financial burdens of instrumentation and monitoring for SHM in civil infrastructures. However, smartphones are vulnerable to unintentional misuses and malicious attacks. This paper analyzes the vulnerabilities of smartphones in performing SHM and reveals the exploitation of those vulnerabilities. The work probes the attack surface of both devices and data. Device attack scenarios include hacking individual smartphones to modify the data stored on them and orchestrating smartphones to launch a distributed denial-of-service attack. Specifically, experiments are conducted to remotely access an Android smartphone and modify the sensing data of structural health stored on it. The work also presents a case study that reveals the sensitivity of a popular perturbation analysis method to faulty data delivered by a smartphone. The paper provides the direction of meeting the security challenge to using smartphones for SHM. As the first line of defense, device authentication is implemented in the smartphone to stop spoofing. Subsequently, message authentication is devised to maintain data integrity. There is a need to apply data science for the SHM immunity system against the sensitivity to data inaccuracy. The work also evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the proposed security measures, recommending varying levels of security to mitigate the adversaries to smartphones used in SHM systems. It calls for security solutions at the design stage of SHM systems rather than patching up after their implementations.

Sensitivity of California water supply to changes in runoff magnitude and timing: A bottom-up assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fefer, M.; Dogan, M. S.; Herman, J. D.

2017-12-01

Long-term shifts in the timing and magnitude of reservoir inflows will potentially have significant impacts on water supply reliability in California, though projections remain uncertain. Here we assess the vulnerability of the statewide system to changes in total annual runoff (a function of precipitation) and the fraction of runoff occurring during the winter months (primarily a function of temperature). An ensemble of scenarios is sampled using a bottom-up approach and compared to the most recent available streamflow projections from the state's 4th Climate Assessment. We evaluate these scenarios using a new open-source version of the CALVIN model, a network flow optimization model encompassing roughly 90% of the urban and agricultural water demands in California, which is capable of running scenario ensembles on a high-performance computing cluster. The economic representation of water demand in the model yields several advantages for this type of analysis: optimized reservoir operating policies to minimize shortage cost and the marginal value of adaptation opportunities, defined by shadow prices on infrastructure and regulatory constraints. Results indicate a shift in optimal reservoir operations and high marginal value of additional reservoir storage in the winter months. The collaborative management of reservoirs in CALVIN yields increased storage in downstream reservoirs to store the increased winter runoff. This study contributes an ensemble evaluation of a large-scale network model to investigate uncertain climate projections, and an approach to interpret the results of economic optimization through the lens of long-term adaptation strategies.

Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

2014-12-01

A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

Preventive Care for Women in Prison: A Qualitative Community Health Assessment of the Papanicolaou Test and Follow-Up Treatment at a California State Women’s Prison

PubMed Central

Magee, Catherine G.; Hult, Jen R.; Turalba, Ruby; McMillan, Shelby

2005-01-01

Growing evidence indicates that women in prison are particularly vulnerable to many negative health outcomes, including cervical cancer. The Papanicolaou (Pap) test is an effective tool to screen for this disease. To determine what is and is not working with the Pap test and follow-up treatment, we performed qualitative interviews with women prisoners and key informants at a California state women’s prison. Our assessment revealed that the process of administering Pap tests at this institution was not meeting the health care needs of the women interviewed. Women reported having negative experiences during the test and with their health care providers. Additionally the prison’s culture and infrastructure create obstacles that hinder prisoners from receiving quality care and providers from delivering that care. In response, women prisoners use self-and community advocacy to meet their health care needs and cope with these challenges. PMID:16186450

Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

Drinking Water Consequences Tools. A Literature Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasqualini, Donatella

2016-05-12

In support of the goals of Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) National Protection and Programs Directorate and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the DHS Office of Science and Technology is seeking to develop and/or modify consequence assessment tools to enable drinking water systems owner/operators to estimate the societal and economic consequences of drinking water disruption due to the threats and hazards. This work will expand the breadth of consequence estimation methods and tools using the best-available data describing water distribution infrastructure, owner/assetlevel economic losses, regional-scale economic activity, and health. In addition, this project will deploy the consequence methodology and capabilitymore » within a Web-based platform. This report is intended to support DHS effort providing a review literature review of existing assessment tools of water and wastewater systems consequences to disruptions. The review includes tools that assess water systems resilience, vulnerability, and risk. This will help to understand gaps and limitations of these tools in order to plan for the development of the next-generation consequences tool for water and waste water systems disruption.« less

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

[Nurses' autonomy and vulnerability in the Nursing Assistance Systematization practice].

PubMed

Menezes, Silvia Regina Tamae; Priel, Margareth Rose; Pereira, Luciane Lucio

2011-08-01

The objective of this study was to recognize the autonomy and vulnerability of nurses in the implementation of the Sistema da Assistência de Enfermagem (SAE) Nursing Care System through an integrative literature review, using content analysis. A survey was conducted, and 40 articles published between 1998 and 2008 were selected based on their relevance. Results showed two main categories of meaning: Benefits associated to the SAE practice (to patients, to the profession and to the institution) and Determinants for the Implementation of SAE (nurse's competence, training and education, record-instruments, infrastructure and collective sharing-construction). From the integration of the two categories, the highlights were the autonomy in acting with freedom and responsibility, science-based decision-making, and being valued for their social work, as well as the vulnerability expressed by interpersonal relationships, the wear generated by professional stress and the risk inherent to the service.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jonathan Gray; Robert Anderson; Julio G. Rodriguez

Abstract: Identifying and understanding digital instrumentation and control (I&C) cyber vulnerabilities within nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, is critical if nation states desire to operate nuclear facilities safely, reliably, and securely. In order to demonstrate objective evidence that cyber vulnerabilities have been adequately identified and mitigated, a testbed representing a facility’s critical nuclear equipment must be replicated. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has built and operated similar testbeds for common critical infrastructure I&C for over ten years. This experience developing, operating, and maintaining an I&C testbed in support of research identifying cyber vulnerabilities has led the Korean Atomic Energymore » Research Institute of the Republic of Korea to solicit the experiences of INL to help mitigate problems early in the design, development, operation, and maintenance of a similar testbed. The following information will discuss I&C testbed lessons learned and the impact of these experiences to KAERI.« less

Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment for Water Resources Management in South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.

2008-12-01

South Florida is home to over 7 million people and its population is projected to increase to over 10 million people by 2025 and possibly 12-15 million by 2050. Through Federal/State/Local partnerships, the Greater Everglades is being restored under numerous water resources management projects requiring large investments of time and money. Recent climate change projections as published in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have the potential to cause significant impacts on flood control and water supply functions of water resources management, and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida. More recent estimates of sea level rise for south Florida are much higher than those in the IPCC report and if such projections become a reality, consequences may be disastrous. It is extremely important to understand the extent of global projections for various emission scenarios, their ability to represent the climatology of local regions, and the potential vulnerabilities of both climate change and sea level rise on water resources management. Implications of natural variability of the climate and teleconnections in South Florida are understood with a reasonable degree of certainty. Recent emphasis on climate change due to human-induced impacts have generated new questions on the sustainability of coastal environments with a heightened concern for the success of large-scale environmental projects throughout South Florida. An assessment of the precipitation projections of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) shows that their ability to represent the landscape of Florida and predict historical climate patterns may be limited. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida under changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale, hydrologic simulation model was conducted. The results show the vulnerability of projected climate change on water supply for all water sectors including the environment, and the potential impact of sea level rise on coastal regions. Questions on the potential impacts of climate change including sea level rise need to be investigated along with the uncertainties of projections to provide critical information for decision making on the planned infrastructure and operational changes in south Florida.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

2016-03-15

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attending to social vulnerability when rationing pandemic resources.

PubMed

Vawter, Dorothy E; Garrett, J Eline; Gervais, Karen G; Prehn, Angela Witt; DeBruin, Debra A

2011-01-01

Pandemic plans are increasingly attending to groups experiencing health disparities and other social vulnerabilities. Although some pandemic guidance is silent on the issue, guidance that attends to socially vulnerable groups ranges widely, some procedural (often calling for public engagement), and some substantive. Public engagement objectives vary from merely educational to seeking reflective input into the ethical commitments that should guide pandemic planning and response. Some plans that concern rationing during a severe pandemic recommend ways to protect socially vulnerable groups without prioritizing access to scarce resources based on social vulnerability per se. The Minnesota Pandemic Ethics Project (MPEP), a public engagement project on rationing scarce health resources during a severe influenza pandemic, agrees and recommends an integrated set of ways to attend to the needs of socially vulnerable people and avoid exacerbation of health disparities during a severe influenza pandemic. Among other things, MPEP recommends: 1. Engaging socially vulnerable populations to clarify unique needs and effective strategies; 2. Engaging socially vulnerable populations to elicit ethical values and perspectives on rationing; 3. Rejecting rationing based on race, socioeconomic class, citizenship, quality of life, length of life-extension and first-come, first-served; 4. Prioritizing those in the general population for access to resources based on combinations of risk (of death or severe complications from influenza, exposure to influenza, transmitting influenza to vulnerable groups) and the likelihood of responding well to the resource in question. 5. Protecting critical infrastructures on which vulnerable populations and the general public rely; 6. Identifying and removing access barriers during pandemic planning and response; and 7. Collecting and promptly analyzing data during the pandemic to identify groups at disproportionate risk of influenza-related mortality and serious morbidity and to optimize the distribution of resources.

Strategic Planning for Drought Mitigation Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Zeng, R.; Valocchi, A. J.; Song, J.

2012-12-01

Droughts continue to be a major natural hazard and mounting evidence of global warming confronts society with a pressing question: Will climate change aggravate the risk of drought at local scale? It is important to explore what additional risk will be imposed by climate change and what level of strategic measures should be undertaken now to avoid vulnerable situations in the future, given that tactical measures may not avoid large damage. This study addresses the following key questions on strategic planning for drought mitigation under climate change: What combination of strategic and tactical measures will move the societal system response from a vulnerable situation to a resilient one with minimum cost? Are current infrastructures and their operation enough to mitigate the damage of future drought, or do we need in-advance infrastructure expansion for future drought preparedness? To address these questions, this study presents a decision support framework based on a coupled simulation and optimization model. A quasi-physically based watershed model is established for the Frenchman Creek Basin (FCB), part of the Republic River Basin, where groundwater based irrigation plays a significant role in agriculture production and local hydrological cycle. The physical model is used to train a statistical surrogate model, which predicts the watershed responses under future climate conditions. The statistical model replaces the complex physical model in the simulation-optimization framework, which makes the models computationally tractable. Decisions for drought preparedness include traditional short-term tactical measures (e.g. facility operation) and long-term or in-advance strategic measures, which require capital investment. A scenario based three-stage stochastic optimization model assesses the roles of strategic measures and tactical measures in drought preparedness and mitigation. Two benchmark climate prediction horizons, 2040s and 2090s, represent mid-term and long-term planning, respectively, compared to the baseline of the climate of 1980-2000. To handle uncertainty in climate change projections, outputs from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) with Regional Climate Model (RCM) for dynamic downscaling (PCM-RCM, Hadley-RCM, and CCSM-RCM) and four CO2 emission scenarios are used to represent the various possible climatic conditions in the mid-term (2040's) and long-term (2090's) time horizons. The model results show the relative roles of mid- and long-term investments and the complementary relationships between wait-and-see decisions and here-and-now decisions on infrastructure expansion. Even the best tactical measures (irrigation operation) alone are not sufficient for drought mitigation in the future. Infrastructure expansion is critical especially for environmental conversation purposes. With increasing budget, investment should be shifted from tactical measures to strategic measures for drought preparedness. Infrastructure expansion is preferred for the long term plan than the mid-term plan, i.e., larger investment is proposed in 2040s than the current, due to a larger likelihood of drought in 2090s than 2040s. Thus larger BMP expansion is proposed in 2040s for droughts preparedness in 2090s.

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability... of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and approve in writing all Security Vulnerability Assessments that satisfy the requirements of § 27.215...

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Ward, Philip

2017-01-01

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

An alternate approach to assessing climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Casey; Wilby, Robert L.

2012-10-01

U.S. federal agencies are now required to review the potential impacts of climate change on their assets and missions. Similar arrangements are also in place in the United Kingdom under reporting powers for key infrastructure providers (http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/sectors/reporting-authorities/reporting-authorities-reports/). These requirements reflect growing concern about climate resilience and the management of long-lived assets. At one level, analyzing climate risks is a matter of due diligence, given mounting scientific evidence. However, there is no consensus about the means for doing so nor about whether climate models are even ft for the purpose; in addition, several important issues are often overlooked when incorporating climate information into adaptation decisions. An alternative to the scenarioled strategy, such as an approach based on a vulnerability analysis ("stress test"), may identify practical options for resource managers.

Infrastructure Damage/Fragility Models and Data Quality Issues Associated with Department of Defense Climate Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-26

aircraft’s xyz position, the inertial measurement unit ( IMU ) for monitoring the aircraft’s attitude (yaw,  pitch,  roll ), and the ranging and direction...risk community tends to  isolate  the use of fragility curves to describing the  probability of failure associated with hydraulic structures like dams... isolate  and take out the asset‐specific depth‐damage information from the model and then combine this  asset‐specific depth‐damage information with

Transportation Resilience Tools from the U.S. Department of Transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, C.; Rodehorst, B.; Miller, R.; Choate, A.; Hyman, R.; Kafalenos, R.; Beucler, B.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) and ICF International have been working to develop tools and resources to help state departments of transportation (DOTs) and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare for the impacts of climate change. U.S. DOT recently released a set of climate change and extreme weather tools for state DOTs and MPOs that address key challenges they have faced in increasing their climate change resilience. The tools were developed under the U.S. DOT Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2. The CMIP Climate Data Processing Tool provides an easy way for users to gather and process downscaled climate model data at the local level, and "translates" that data into information relevant to transportation engineers and planners. The Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool (VAST), provides a step-by-step approach for users to assess their vulnerability to climate change in a transparent, cost-effective way. The Transportation Climate Change Sensitivity Matrix provides detailed information on how 11 different climate stressors may affect transportation infrastructure and operations. These tools significantly advance the state of the practice for transportation agencies to respond to climate change impacts, and beta-versions have been used successfully by several state DOTs and MPOs. This presentation will focus on these tools, examples of how they can be applied within transportation agencies, and opportunities to apply the lessons learned from the tools—or even the tools themselves—beyond the transportation sector, including as part of the national Climate Resilience Toolkit.

National trends in drinking water quality violations.

PubMed

Allaire, Maura; Wu, Haowei; Lall, Upmanu

2018-02-27

Ensuring safe water supply for communities across the United States is a growing challenge in the face of aging infrastructure, impaired source water, and strained community finances. In the aftermath of the Flint lead crisis, there is an urgent need to assess the current state of US drinking water. However, no nationwide assessment has yet been conducted on trends in drinking water quality violations across several decades. Efforts to reduce violations are of national concern given that, in 2015, nearly 21 million people relied on community water systems that violated health-based quality standards. In this paper, we evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in health-related violations of the Safe Drinking Water Act using a panel dataset of 17,900 community water systems over the period 1982-2015. We also identify vulnerability factors of communities and water systems through probit regression. Increasing time trends and violation hot spots are detected in several states, particularly in the Southwest region. Repeat violations are prevalent in locations of violation hot spots, indicating that water systems in these regions struggle with recurring issues. In terms of vulnerability factors, we find that violation incidence in rural areas is substantially higher than in urbanized areas. Meanwhile, private ownership and purchased water source are associated with compliance. These findings indicate the types of underperforming systems that might benefit from assistance in achieving consistent compliance. We discuss why certain violations might be clustered in some regions and strategies for improving national drinking water quality.

Combating AIDS in South Africa and Mozambique: The Role of Open, Distance, and Flexible Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pridmore, Pat; Yates, Chris

2005-01-01

This article examines the potential for open, distance, and flexible learning (ODFL) to mitigate the impact of HIV and AIDS on young people. Based on experience from a field study in Mozambique and South Africa, the authors show how ODFL can support and extend the work of existing infrastructures supporting vulnerable youth. As neighboring…

The Future of Public Education in New Orleans. After Katrina: Rebuilding Opportunity and Equity into the "New" New Orleans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Paul; Hannaway, Jane

2006-01-01

Long before the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina or the chaos of evacuation, New Orleans' social infrastructure was failing. News coverage of the overcrowded Superdome and the city's flooded streets exposed the poverty and vulnerability of many residents, especially African Americans. As New Orleans begins to rebuild, can the city avoid the mistakes…

Reducing Disaster Vulnerability Through Science and Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-07-01

engineering design. Source: “Massive Alaska Earthquake Rocks the Mainland,” Volcano Watch, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, November 14, 2002, http... volcanoes , and landslides ■ Disease epidemics ■ Technological disasters, including critical infrastructure threats, oil and chemical spills, and building...risk reduction can enhance protection of buildings even in these high-risk areas. Volcanoes The United States is among the most volcanically active

Testing in Service-Oriented Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

software releases (versions, service packs, vulnerability patches) for one com- mon ESB during the 13-month period from January 1, 2008 through...impact on quality of service : Unlike traditional software compo- nents, a single instance of a web service can be used by multiple consumers. Since the...distributed, with heterogeneous hardware and software (SOA infrastructure, services , operating systems, and databases). Because of cost and security, it

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez;

Is there a need for government interventions to adapt energy infrastructures to climate change? A German case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groth, Markus; Cortekar, Jörg

2015-04-01

The option of adapting to climate change is becoming more and more important in climate change policy. Hence, responding to climate change now involves both mitigation to address the cause and adaptation as a response to already ongoing and expected changes. These changes also have relevance for the current and future energy sector in Germany. An energy sector that in the course of the German Energiewende also has to deal with a fundamental shift in energy supply from fossil fuel to renewable energies in the next decades. Thereby it needs to be considered that the energy sector is one critical infrastructure in the European Union that needs to be protected. Critical infrastructures can be defined as organisations or facilities of special importance for the country and its people where failure or functional impairment would lead to severe supply bottlenecks, significant disturbance of public order or other dramatic consequences. Regarding the adaptation to climate change, the main question is, whether adaptation options will be implemented voluntarily by companies or not. This will be the case, when the measure is considered a private good and is economically beneficial. If, on the contrary, the measure is considered a public good, additional incentives are needed. Based on a synthesis of the current knowledge regarding the possible impacts of climate change on the German energy sector along its value-added chain, the paper points out, that the power distribution and the grid infrastructure is consistently attributed the highest vulnerability. Direct physical impacts and damages to the transmission and distribution grids, utility poles, power transformers, and relay stations are expected due to more intense extreme weather events like storms, floods or thunderstorms. Furthermore fundaments of utility poles can be eroded and relay stations or power transformers can be flooded, which might cause short circuits etc. Besides these impacts causing damage to the physical infrastructure, there might also occur efficiency losses in electricity transmission due to very high or very low temperatures. While vulnerabilities in power generation primarily result in efficiency losses, interferences on the grid level could cause power outages with cascade effects influencing other sectors of society and economy. The paper argues that these possible impacts of a changing climate should be taken into account in the upcoming infrastructure projects in the course of the Energiewende. Therefore governmental intervention - like legal obligations or incentives by the use of economic instruments - are for example justifiable regarding measures to adapt the grid infrastructure as a critical infrastructure that needs to be protected against current and future impacts of climate change.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework, Third Edition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework (the Framework), third edition, is a manual to help transportation agencies and their partners assess the vulnerability of transportation infrastructu...

Northeast and Midwest regional species and habitats at greatest risk and most vulnerable to climate impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Hilberg, Laura; Janowiak, Maria; Swanton, C.O.

2016-01-01

The objectives of this Chapter are to describe climate change vulnerability, it’s components, the range of assessment methods being implemented regionally, and examples of training resources and tools. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments (CCVAs) have already been conducted for numerous Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need and their dependent 5 habitats across the Northeast and Midwest. This chapter provides a synthesis of different assessment frameworks, information on the locations (e.g., States) where vulnerability assessments were conducted, lists of individual species and habitats with their respective vulnerability rankings, and a comparison of how vulnerability rankings were determined among studies.

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in human communities near public forests and grasslands: a framework for resource managers and planners

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll; Daniel Murphy; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

2013-01-01

Public land management agencies have incorporated the concept of vulnerability into protocols for assessing and planning for climate change impacts on public forests and grasslands. However, resource managers and planners have little guidance for how to address the social aspects of vulnerability in these assessments and plans. Failure to assess social vulnerability to...

Wine: the increasing risk of a highly vulnerable industry globally to natural disasters and climate change (NH Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James E.; Daniell, Trevor M.; Daniell, Katherine A.; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schäfer, Andreas M.; Kunz, Michael; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Khazai, Bijan; Girard, Trevor; Burford, Robert

2017-04-01

Globally, well over 10 trillion in economic losses and over 10 million deaths can be attributed directly to natural disaster events from floods, earthquakes, storms, volcanoes and climatic effects historically (CATDAT - Daniell et al., 2016). When looking at the most vulnerable industries to natural disasters for each dollar invested the wine industry rates very highly, thus showing the risky and vulnerable nature of the wine business. Some effects of climate change will be shifting climates so that new grape growing areas are discovered and some traditional locations will require a change of grape variety to be planted, or will unsatisfactory for quality grape production. As new grape types are developed, some other grape types will become less viable leading to a global shift relative to the current state of the industry. The wine industry has been shown to have major losses via sudden shocks such as earthquakes in Chile (2010), Christchurch (2011) and Napa (2014) and hail through Burgundy (2012-2014). Wineries are often prone to other major disasters such as flood, storms, frost, fire or disease causing structural failure of assets, and significant production losses. Natural and man-made disasters play a key role in wine industry losses, and the variability of seasonal shifts and sudden natural shocks can often play a major role in the lifecycle and indeed the lifetime of wineries. Lessons learnt from winery disasters and climate impacts in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and USA are used as well as a comparison with those in Europe and other vulnerable centralised industries, such as cheese in Italy (2012 earthquake). For various natural disasters the structural engineering issues associated with wineries are examined with respect to infrastructure such as elevated steel tanks, as well as the importance of planning for earthquakes. The potential risk mitigation solutions are often simple to implement and are cost-effective in reducing significantly the risk potential of wineries. A risk index is produced for comparing wine regions and wineries globally by assessing the comparative risk of loss of grapes and production as well as business interruption due to various natural disasters and climate change based on stochastic and historic hazard models, as well as semi-empirical vulnerability models. Earthquake, flood, storm, climatic, hurricane and fire models are investigated. This index is of use for: wineries wanting to reduce their potential losses, to create sustainable infrastructure or to know their risks; insurance companies wanting to insure wineries; governments concerned about the loss of industry and the potential for employment loss; and simply those people worried about having a glass of their favourite wine in a few years time. Daniell, J.E., Wenzel, F., Schaefer, A.M. (2016) The economic costs of natural disasters globally from 1900-2015: historical and normalised floods, storms, earthquakes, volcanoes, bushfires, drought and other disasters, Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 18, EGU2016-1899.

Current and future flood risk to railway infrastructure in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bubeck, Philip; Kellermann, Patric; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc; Dillenardt, Lisa; Thieken, Annegret H.

2017-04-01

Railway infrastructure plays an important role in the transportation of freight and passengers across the European Union. According to Eurostat, more than four billion passenger-kilometres were travelled on national and international railway lines of the EU28 in 2014. To further strengthen transport infrastructure in Europe, the European Commission will invest another € 24.05 billion in the transnational transport network until 2020 as part of its new transport infrastructure policy (TEN-T), including railway infrastructure. Floods pose a significant risk to infrastructure elements. Damage data of recent flood events in Europe show that infrastructure losses can make up a considerable share of overall losses. For example, damage to state and municipal infrastructure in the federal state of Saxony (Germany) accounted for nearly 60% of overall losses during the large-scale event in June 2013. Especially in mountainous areas with little usable space available, roads and railway lines often follow floodplains or are located along steep and unsteady slopes. In Austria, for instance, the flood of 2013 caused € 75 million of direct damage to railway infrastructure. Despite the importance of railway infrastructure and its exposure to flooding, assessments of potential damage and risk (i.e. probability * damage) are still in its infancy compared with other sectors, such as the residential or industrial sector. Infrastructure-specific assessments at the regional scale are largely lacking. Regional assessment of potential damage to railway infrastructure has been hampered by a lack of infrastructure-specific damage models and data availability. The few available regional approaches have used damage models that assess damage to various infrastructure elements (e.g. roads, railway, airports and harbours) using one aggregated damage function and cost estimate. Moreover, infrastructure elements are often considerably underrepresented in regional land cover data, such as CORINE, due to their line shapes. To assess current and future damage and risk to railway infrastructure in Europe, we apply the damage model RAIL -' RAilway Infrastructure Loss' that was specifically developed for railway infrastructure using empirical damage data. To adequately and comprehensively capture the line-shaped features of railway infrastructure, the assessment makes use of the open-access data set of openrailway.org. Current and future flood hazard in Europe is obtained with the LISFLOOD-based pan-European flood hazard mapping procedure combined with ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The presentation shows first results of the combination of the hazard data and the model RAIL for Europe.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

PubMed Central

Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

2013-01-01

Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

Cyber security risk assessment for SCADA and DCS networks.

PubMed

Ralston, P A S; Graham, J H; Hieb, J L

2007-10-01

The growing dependence of critical infrastructures and industrial automation on interconnected physical and cyber-based control systems has resulted in a growing and previously unforeseen cyber security threat to supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and distributed control systems (DCSs). It is critical that engineers and managers understand these issues and know how to locate the information they need. This paper provides a broad overview of cyber security and risk assessment for SCADA and DCS, introduces the main industry organizations and government groups working in this area, and gives a comprehensive review of the literature to date. Major concepts related to the risk assessment methods are introduced with references cited for more detail. Included are risk assessment methods such as HHM, IIM, and RFRM which have been applied successfully to SCADA systems with many interdependencies and have highlighted the need for quantifiable metrics. Presented in broad terms is probability risk analysis (PRA) which includes methods such as FTA, ETA, and FEMA. The paper concludes with a general discussion of two recent methods (one based on compromise graphs and one on augmented vulnerability trees) that quantitatively determine the probability of an attack, the impact of the attack, and the reduction in risk associated with a particular countermeasure.

Impact modeling and prediction of attacks on cyber targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalili, Aram; Michalk, Brian; Alford, Lee; Henney, Chris; Gilbert, Logan

2010-04-01

In most organizations, IT (information technology) infrastructure exists to support the organization's mission. The threat of cyber attacks poses risks to this mission. Current network security research focuses on the threat of cyber attacks to the organization's IT infrastructure; however, the risks to the overall mission are rarely analyzed or formalized. This connection of IT infrastructure to the organization's mission is often neglected or carried out ad-hoc. Our work bridges this gap and introduces analyses and formalisms to help organizations understand the mission risks they face from cyber attacks. Modeling an organization's mission vulnerability to cyber attacks requires a description of the IT infrastructure (network model), the organization mission (business model), and how the mission relies on IT resources (correlation model). With this information, proper analysis can show which cyber resources are of tactical importance in a cyber attack, i.e., controlling them enables a large range of cyber attacks. Such analysis also reveals which IT resources contribute most to the organization's mission, i.e., lack of control over them gravely affects the mission. These results can then be used to formulate IT security strategies and explore their trade-offs, which leads to better incident response. This paper presents our methodology for encoding IT infrastructure, organization mission and correlations, our analysis framework, as well as initial experimental results and conclusions.

Public Infrastructure Disparities and the Microbiological and Chemical Safety of Drinking and Surface Water Supplies in a Community Bordering a Landfill

PubMed Central

Heaney, Christopher D.; Wing, Steve; Wilson, Sacoby M.; Campbell, Robert L.; Caldwell, David; Hopkins, Barbara; O’Shea, Shannon; Yeatts, Karin

2015-01-01

The historically African-American Rogers-Eubanks community straddles unincorporated boundaries of two municipalities in Orange County, North Carolina, and predates a regional landfill sited along its border in 1972. Community members from the Rogers-Eubanks Neighborhood Association (RENA), concerned about deterioration of private wells and septic systems and a lack of public drinking water and sewer services, implemented a community-driven research partnership with university scientists and community-based organizations to investigate water and sewer infrastructure disparities and the safety of drinking and surface water supplies. RENA drafted memoranda of agreement with partners and trained community monitors to collect data (inventory households, map water and sewer infrastructure, administer household water and sewer infrastructure surveys, and collect drinking and surface water samples). Respondents to the surveys reported pervasive signs of well vulnerability (100%) and septic system failure (68%). Each 100-m increase in distance from the landfill was associated with a 600 most probable number/100 mL decrease in enterococci concentrations in surface water (95% confidence interval = −1106, −93). Pervasive private household water and sewer infrastructure failures and poor water quality were identified in this community bordering a regional landfill, providing evidence of a need for improved water and sanitation services. PMID:23858663

Commodity Flow Study - Clark County, Nevada, USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conway, S.Ph.D.; Navis, I.

2008-07-01

The United States Department of Energy has designated Clark County, Nevada as an 'Affected Unit of Local Government' due to the potential for impacts by activities associated with the Yucca Mountain High Level Nuclear Waste Repository project. Urban Transit, LLC has led a project team of transportation including experts from the University of Nevada Las Vegas Transportation Research Center to conduct a hazardous materials community flow study along Clark County's rail and truck corridors. In addition, a critical infrastructure analysis has also been carried out in order to assess the potential impacts of transportation within Clark County of high levelmore » nuclear waste and spent nuclear fuel to a proposed repository 90 miles away in an adjacent county on the critical infrastructure in Clark County. These studies were designed to obtain information relating to the transportation, identification and routing of hazardous materials through Clark County. Coordinating with the United States Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U. S. Federal Highway Administration, the Nevada Department of Transportation, and various other stakeholders, these studies and future research will examine the risk factors along the entire transportation corridor within Clark County and provide a context for understanding the additional vulnerability associated with shipping spent fuel through Clark County. (authors)« less

Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

2015-12-01

A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

Multi-scalar interactions between infrastructure, smallholder water management, and coastal dynamics in the Bengal Delta, Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, K. G.; Brondizio, E.; Roy, K.; Syvitski, J. P.

2016-12-01

Because of their low-lying elevations and large number of inhabitants and infrastructure, river deltas are ground zero for climate change impacts, particularly from sea-level rise and storm surges. The increased vulnerability of downstream delta communities to coastal flooding as a result of upstream engineering has been acknowledged for decades. What has received less attention is the sensitivity of deltas to the interactions of these processes and increasing intensity of cultivation and irrigation in their coastal regions. Beyond basin-scale damming, regional infrastructure affects the movement of sediment and water on deltas, and combined with upstream modifications may exacerbate the risk of expanded tidal flooding, erosion of arable land, and salinization of soils and groundwater associated with sea level rise. To examine the social-biophysical feedbacks associated with regional-scale infrastructure, smallholder water management practices and coastal dynamics, a nested framework was applied to two districts of the coastal southwest region of Bangladesh. The two districts vary in tidal range, salinity, freshwater availability and socioeconomic structures, and are spatially varied in farmer's adaptations. Both districts contain numerous large embankment systems initially designed to protect cropland from tidal flooding, but that have been poorly maintained since their construction in the 1960's. The framework was co-produced using local-level stakeholder input collected during group interviews with rural farmers in 8 villages within the two districts, and explicitly accounts for engineered and natural biophysical variables as well as governance and institutional structures at 3 levels of analysis. Household survey results indicate that the presence or absence of embankments as a result of poor management and dynamic coastal processes is the primary control on freshwater availability and thus influences farming strategies, socioeconomic conditions and social positions in both districts. Local-scale interactions with the embankments are spatially heterogeneous, but geospatial analyses show the potential for these to collectively impact physical and social stability across a region already vulnerable to coastal flooding.

DOE/DHS INDUSTRIAL CONTROL SYSTEM CYBER SECURITY PROGRAMS: A MODEL FOR USE IN NUCLEAR FACILITY SAFEGUARDS AND SECURITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert S. Anderson; Mark Schanfein; Trond Bjornard

2011-07-01

Many critical infrastructure sectors have been investigating cyber security issues for several years especially with the help of two primary government programs. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National SCADA Test Bed and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Control Systems Security Program have both implemented activities aimed at securing the industrial control systems that operate the North American electric grid along with several other critical infrastructure sectors (ICS). These programs have spent the last seven years working with industry including asset owners, educational institutions, standards and regulating bodies, and control system vendors. The programs common mission is tomore » provide outreach, identification of cyber vulnerabilities to ICS and mitigation strategies to enhance security postures. The success of these programs indicates that a similar approach can be successfully translated into other sectors including nuclear operations, safeguards, and security. The industry regulating bodies have included cyber security requirements and in some cases, have incorporated sets of standards with penalties for non-compliance such as the North American Electric Reliability Corporation Critical Infrastructure Protection standards. These DOE and DHS programs that address security improvements by both suppliers and end users provide an excellent model for nuclear facility personnel concerned with safeguards and security cyber vulnerabilities and countermeasures. It is not a stretch to imagine complete surreptitious collapse of protection against the removal of nuclear material or even initiation of a criticality event as witnessed at Three Mile Island or Chernobyl in a nuclear ICS inadequately protected against the cyber threat.« less

Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan S.; Ludwig, Kristin A.; Bekins, Barbara; Brocher, Thomas M.; Brock, John C.; Brothers, Daniel; Chaytor, Jason D.; Frankel, Arthur; Geist, Eric L.; Haney, Matt; Hickman, Stephen H.; Leith, William S.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Schulz, William H.; Sisson, Thomas W.; Wallace, Kristi; Watt, Janet; Wein, Anne M.

2017-06-19

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information and tools to build resilience in communities exposed to subduction zone earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Improving the application of USGS science to successfully reduce risk from these events relies on whole community efforts, with continuing partnerships among scientists and stakeholders, including researchers from universities, other government labs and private industry, land-use planners, engineers, policy-makers, emergency managers and responders, business owners, insurance providers, the media, and the general public.Motivated by recent technological advances and increased awareness of our growing vulnerability to subduction-zone hazards, the USGS is uniquely positioned to take a major step forward in the science it conducts and products it provides, building on its tradition of using long-term monitoring and research to develop effective products for hazard mitigation. This science plan provides a blueprint both for prioritizing USGS science activities and for delineating USGS interests and potential participation in subduction zone science supported by its partners.The activities in this plan address many USGS stakeholder needs:High-fidelity tools and user-tailored information that facilitate increasingly more targeted, neighborhood-scale decisions to mitigate risks more cost-effectively and ensure post-event operability. Such tools may include maps, tables, and simulated earthquake ground-motion records conveying shaking intensity and frequency. These facilitate the prioritization of retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure;Information to guide local land-use and response planning to minimize development in likely hazardous zones (for example, databases, maps, and scenario documents to guide evacuation route planning in communities near volcanoes, along coastlines vulnerable to tsunamis, and built on landslide-prone terrain);New tools to assess the potential for cascading hazards, such as landslides, tsunamis, coastal changes, and flooding caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions;Geospatial models of permanent, widespread land- and sea-level changes that may occur in the immediate aftermath of great (M ≥8.0) subduction zone earthquakes;Strong partnerships between scientists and public safety providers for effective decision making during periods of elevated hazard and risk;Accurate forecasts of far-reaching hazards (for example, ash clouds, tsunamis) to avert catastrophes and unnecessary disruptions in air and sea transportation;Aftershock forecasts to guide decisions about when and where to re-enter, repair, or rebuild buildings and infrastructure, for all types of subduction zone earthquakes.

Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

PubMed

Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

2017-10-01

Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Experiences with collaborative climate impacts assessments for regional governments in southwestern British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobie, S. R.; Murdock, T. Q.

2016-12-01

Infrastructure vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning have created demand for detailed information about climate change and extreme events from local and regional governments. Individual communities often have distinct priorities regarding climate change impacts. While projections from climate models are available to investigate these impacts, they are not always applicable or easily interpreted by local agencies. We discuss a series of climate impacts assessments for several regional and local governments in southwestern British Columbia. Each of the assessments was conducted with input from the users on project definition from the start of the process and on interpretation of results throughout each project. To produce sufficient detail for the assessment regions, we produce high-resolution (800m) simulations of precipitation and temperature using downscaled climate model projections. Sets of derived climate parameters tailored to each region are calculated from both standard indices such as CLIMDEX and from an energy-balance snowpack model. Involving user groups from the beginning of the analysis helps to convey the meaning and confidence of each set of climate change parameters to users and also clarifies what projections are feasible or not for impact assessments. We discuss the different levels of involvement and collaboration with each organization, and the resulting decisions implemented following each of the projects.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure.

PubMed

Dawson, Richard J; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N; Watson, Geoff V R; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W

2018-06-13

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Authors.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

2018-06-01

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

PubMed Central

Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

2018-01-01

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

2012-04-01

This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of country policy and the particular risk management focus to the smaller scale risk management perceptions of the analysis techniques employed being to resource expensive, difficult to interpret or to operationalise. This paper will provide a context with some empirical examples to perhaps explain the growing popularity of concepts such as resilience and capacity building which lie more comfortably with policy makers and risk managers as concepts which focus on the solution rather than identifying a problem by assessing social vulnerability.

Readiness of Military Installations for Increasing Heavy Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Yan, E.

2016-12-01

Recent analysis of historical and future precipitation data suggests that the frequency and intensity of heavy storms are in raising trends in most parts of U.S. Majority of the climate models also suggest that increased winter snow pack, and late winter rainfall, may result in groundwater level rise and soil saturation that can lead to potentially severe flooding. The Department of Defense, which own more than 7,000 military installations throughout the world, has also recognized that changes in precipitation and increasing storm frequency and intensity present a real threat to most of its installations and impacting the national security. Identify vulnerabilities is the first step to reduce the risks posed by climate change and associated change in storm magnitude and frequency. In this study, a risk/consequence based approach was applied to evaluating the vulnerability of the Joint Base Lewis-McChord, which is located in suburb of Seattle. The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves used to design storm water-related infrastructures was evaluated by considering the recent and expected changes in heavy storms in the region. The ability of existing stormwater management system to accommodate the changes in storms was assessed based on expected peaks and volumes of runoff, and suggestions were made to improve their overall effectiveness.

Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

PubMed Central

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

2018-01-01

Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links. PMID:29670057

Minimizing Surface Exposure to Climate Extremity in Coastal Megacities by Structure Remodelling using Integral Geographic Information System: Lessons from Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal metropolitans in South Asia represent the most densely populated and congested urban spaces ranking among the largest urban settlements of the planet. These megacities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools, and weak resilience of urban ecosystems. Additionally, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly growing coastal megacities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. This has adversely affected local counter strategies and adaptation tools, transforming such events into hazards with the inability to respond and mitigate. Study aimed to develop a participatory framework for risk reduction in Greater Mumbai Metropolitan by Structure Remodeling (SR) in integral GIS. Research utilized terrain analysis tools and vulnerability mapping, and identified risk susceptible fabric and checked its scope for SR without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2.without interference with the ecosystem services accommodated by it. Surfaces available included paved ground, streetscapes commercial facades, rooftops,public spaces, open as well as dark spaces. Remodeling altered certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with infrastructure measures (grey, green, blue) that collectively involved ecosystem services and maintained natural hydrological connection. This method fairly reduced exposure of vulnerable surface and minimized risk to achieve extremity-neutral state. Harmonizing with public perception and incorporating priorities of local authorities, the method is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of (often) conflicting perspectives and interests of multiplicity of stakeholders involved at various levels in urban climate governance while ensuring inclusive solutions with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. Additionally this method has vast potential to replicate for climate smart planning beyond the study region as it clearly ensures barrier free climate-communication process for decision making while looking for long term feasible outcomes of remodeled surface through the most affordable and innovative tools.

Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Erosion in Northwest Alaska (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorokhovich, Y.; Leiserowitz, A.

2009-12-01

Northwest Alaska is experiencing significant climate change and human impacts. The study area includes the coastal zone of Kotzebue Sound and the Chukchi Sea and provides the local population (predominantly Inupiaq Eskimo) with critical subsistence resources of meat, fish, berries, herbs, and wood. The geomorphology of the coast includes barrier islands, inlets, estuaries, deltas, cliffs, bluffs, and beaches that host modern settlements and infrastructure. Coastal dynamics and sea-level rise are contributing to erosion, intermittent erosion/accretion patterns, landslides, slumps and coastal retreat. These factors are causing the sedimentation of deltas and lagoons, and changing local bathymetry, morphological parameters of beaches and underwater slopes, rates of coastal dynamics, and turbidity and nutrient cycling in coastal waters. This study is constructing vulnerability maps to help local people and federal officials understand the potential consequences of sea-level rise and coastal erosion on local infrastructure, subsistence resources, and culturally important sites. A lack of complete and uniform data (in terms of methods of collection, geographic scale and spatial resolution) creates an additional level of uncertainty that complicates geographic analysis. These difficulties were overcome by spatial modeling with selected spatial resolution using extrapolation methods. Data include subsistence resource maps obtained using Participatory GIS with local hunters and elders, geological and geographic data on coastal dynamics from satellite imagery, aerial photos, bathymetry and topographic maps, and digital elevation models. These data were classified and ranked according to the level of coastal vulnerability (Figure 1). The resulting qualitative multicriteria model helps to identify the coastal areas with the greatest vulnerability to coastal erosion and of the potential loss of subsistence resources. Acknowldgements: Dr. Ron Abileah (private consultant, jOmegak) helped in preliminary analysis of Landsat imagery, Mr. Alex Whiting provided valuable information on subsistence resources in Kotzebue region, hunters and elders of villages in Kivalina, Kotzebue, Selawik and Deering provided input in GIS database on subsistence resources.

Climate Change and Flooding in an Ecologically Fragile Zone of Nigerian Coastal Areas: A Case Study of Ilaje Settlement in Lagos, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, A. F.

2017-12-01

Climate change exacerbates the environmental condition directly or indirectly. The frequency of climate-related disasters worldwide has been on the increase with their amplitude growing. The consequences of climate-related disaster are not limited to loss of lives and properties alone, but also serious repercussions on post-disaster reconstruction, as well as the cost implications for resilience of the infrastructure and natural environment. In developing countries, the low-income group whose income is below the world poverty line is the most vulnerable to the dangers of climate change. To worsen the case, the political and economic strength of these countries in terms of economic resources, technological development and urban planning management necessary for adapting to climate change are relatively weak. This study takes an inventory of the study area environment to establish its environmental state in terms of the extent of its vulnerability and economic strength. It was found that the study area is vulnerable being a coastal area and could be described as a slum settlement. Also, information on frequency and extent of flooding in association with change in temperature was collected. The results show that the frequency of flood occurrence within the period has increased and the increase was attributed to rise in sea level alongside a significant increase in temperature within the period of study. The implications of the findings on loss of lives/properties and continuous decline in the area economic strength as it relates to resilience of the area was discussed. The study suggests an effective urban land use management and control, as well as redevelopment of resilient infrastructure in the area. The study concludes that the increase in temperature for the period as an indicator of climate change causes rise in sea level and the subsequent increase in flooding occurrence. Key Words: Ecologically Fragile Zone, Climate Change, Flooding and Vulnerability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MATALUCCI,RUDOLPH V.; O'CONNOR,SHARON

The mission of the Architectural Surety{trademark} program at Sandia National Laboratories is to assure the performance of buildings, facilities, and other infrastructure systems under normal, abnormal, and malevolent threat conditions. Through educational outreach efforts in the classroom, at conferences, and presentations such as this one, public and professional awareness of the need to defuse and mitigate such threats is increased. Buildings, airports, utilities, and other kinds of infrastructure deteriorate over time, as evidenced most dramatically by the crumbling cities and aging buildings, bridges, and other facility systems. Natural disasters such as tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, and flooding also stress the materialsmore » and structural elements of the built environment. In addition, criminals, vandals, and terrorists attack federal buildings, dams, bridges, tunnels, and other public and private facilities. Engineers and architects are beginning to systematically consider these threats during the design, construction, and retrofit phases of buildings and infrastructures and are recommending advanced research in new materials and techniques. Existing building codes and standards do not adequately address nor protect the infrastructure or the public from many of these emerging threats. The activities in Sandia National Laboratories' Architectural Surety{trademark} efforts take a risk management approach to enhancing the safety, security, and reliability of the constructed environment. The technologies and techniques developed during Sandia's 50 years as the nation's lead laboratory for nuclear weapons surety are now being applied to assessing and reducing the vulnerability of dams, to enhancing the safety and security of staff in foreign embassies, and assuring the reliability of other federal facilities. High consequence surety engineering and design brings together technological advancements, new material requirements, systems integration, and risk management to improve the safety, security, and reliability of the as-built environment. The thrust of this paper is the role that new materials can play in protecting the infrastructure. Retrofits of existing buildings, innovative approaches to the design and construction of new facilities, and the mitigation of consequences in the event of an unpreventable disaster are some of the areas that new construction materials can benefit the Architectural Surety{trademark} of the constructed environment.« less

6 CFR 27.210 - Submissions schedule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... in any subsequent Federal Register notice. (2) Security Vulnerability Assessment. Unless otherwise notified, a covered facility must complete and submit a Security Vulnerability Assessment within 90... Department's approval of the facility's Site Security Plan. (2) Security Vulnerability Assessment. Unless...

Maritime Cyber Security University Research: Phase 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-01

the global economy . The vulnerabilities associated with reliance on digital systems in the maritime environment must be continuously examined. System...Report: Modern maritime systems are highly complex digital systems to ensure the safety and efficient operation of the shipping traffic so vital to...entrances to our " digital ports" and work to develop practical cyber security solutions to protect the nation’s maritime infrastructure. 17. Key

Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

ice have catastrophic effects on facilities, infrastructure, and military testing and training. Permafrost temperature , thickness, and geographic...treeline) and fire severity (~0 to ~100% SOL consumption ), they provide an excellent suite of sites to test and quantify the effects of fire severity...stages .........................59 Table 6.1. Variables included in explanatory matrix for black spruce dominance ............68 Table 6.2. Mixed effect

Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

catastrophic effects on facilities, infrastructure, and military testing and training. Permafrost temperature , thickness, and geographic continuity...and fire severity (~0 to ~100% SOL consumption ), they provide an excellent suite of sites to test and quantify the effects of fire severity on plant...59 Table 6.1. Variables included in explanatory matrix for black spruce dominance ............68 Table 6.2. Mixed effect model

Bytes: Weapons of Mass Disruption

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-04-01

advances compound the problems of protecting complex global infrastructures from attacks. How should the U.S. integrate the many disparate...deploy and sustain military forces.".16 According to the direst of information warfare theories , all computer systems are vulnerable to attack. The...Crisis Show of Force Punitive Strikes Armed Intervention Regional Conflict Regional War Global Conventional War Strategic Nuclear War IW & C2W area of

Militancy in Pakistan: A Schizophrenic Problem

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

and must protect the vulnerable Punjabi plain. Pakistan’s major population centers and much of its infrastructure are situated near the Indian...that Pashtun tribes have had a strong aversion to invading armies. With 75% of military personnel from the Punjabi region, the ethnic disparity... Punjabi dominated social strata. Initial Pashtun incorporation into the state’s jurisdiction began when the British Raj formally recognized the two

Small Nuclear Reactors for Military Installations: Capabilities, Costs, and Technological Implications

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

almost entirely dependent on the national transmission grid . . . [which] is fragile, vulnerable, near its capacity limit, and outside of DOD control...has returned. A major factor in this resurgence has come from developing countries, where expressed and pro- jected demands for electricity are...rapidly growing and limited infrastructural and investment capacity generates interest in reactors that can be deployed rapidly and in- crementally.14

Securing SSL-VPN with LR-AKE to access personal health record.

PubMed

Eizen, Kimura; Masato, Saito; Kazukuni, Kobara; Yoshihito, Nakato; Takuji, Kuroda; Ken, Ishihara

2013-01-01

Using SSL-VPN requires special considerations for well-known issues such as attackers exploiting web browser vulnerabilities and phishing sites using man-in-the-middle attacks. We used leakage-resilient authenticated key exchange (LR-AKE) to develop a comprehensive solution to SSL-VPN issues. Our results show that the LR-AKE should contribute to building a robust infrastructure for personal health records.

Space and Air Force: Rhetoric or Reality

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-04-01

1997, (introduction). 11 Ibid., 18. 12 Ibid., 17. 13 Notes 13 Joint Operations Coursebook , “Joint Strategic Planning System: CJCS Instruction 3100.01...infrastructures as “the physical and information systems essential to the operations of the economy and government.”22 The NSS also specifies, “but...advances in information technology and competitive pressure to improve efficiency and productivity have created new vulnerabilities to both physical

Vulnerability assessment and risk perception: the case of the Arieş River Middle Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozunu, Al.; Botezan, C.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment is influenced by a number of factors, including risk perception. This paper investigates the vulnerability of people living in the middle basin of the Aries river region, a former mining area, to natural and technologic hazards. The mining industry lead to significant environmental changes, which combined with the social problems caused by its decline (high unemployment rate, low income and old age) raised the level of the vulnerability in the area. This case study is unique, as it includes an evaluation of risk perception and its influence on the social vulnerability and resilience of local communities to disasters. Key words: vulnerability assessment, natural hazards, social vulnerability, risk perception

The participatory vulnerability scoping diagram - deliberative risk ranking for community water systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Coletti, Alex; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

Natural hazards and climate change present growing challenges to community water system (CWS) managers, who are increasingly turning to vulnerability assessments to identify, prioritize, and adapt to risks. Effectively assessing CWS vulnerability requires information and participation from various sources, one of which is stakeholders. In this article, we present a deliberative risk-ranking methodology, the participatory vulnerability scoping diagram (P-VSD), which allows rapid assessment and integration of multiple stakeholder perspectives of vulnerability. This technique is based on methods of deliberative risk evaluation and the vulnerability scoping diagram. The goal of the methodology is to engage CWS managers and stakeholders collectively to provide qualitative contextual risk rankings as a first step in a vulnerability assessment. We conduct an initial assessment using a case study of CWS in two U.S. counties, sites with broadly similar exposures but differences in population, land use, and other social sensitivity factors. Results demonstrate that CWS managers and stakeholders in the two case study communities all share the belief that their CWS are vulnerable to hazards but differ in how this vulnerability manifests itself in terms of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the system.

Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

2013-04-01

The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

Sea Level Rise, Rainfall and Coastal Flooding in Northeastern U.S. Cities Vivien Gornitz, Radley Horton, Philip Orton, Nickitas Georgas, Alan Blumberg, and Cynthia Rosenzweig

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gornitz, V.; Horton, R. M.; Orton, P. M.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Rosenzweig, C.

2012-12-01

Populations and infrastructure along much of the northeastern coast of the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of rising sea level and storm surges over the coming century. This vulnerability is amplified by regional land subsidence and likely also by shifts in ocean circulation. Building upon recent studies for the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), New York State ClimAid assessment, and the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment, we report new regional sea level rise projections based on the latest CMIP-5 global climate models (GCMs) and RCP emission scenarios, adjusted for revised glacial ice melt contributions, and other factors such as gravitational effects, land water storage, and changes in the Atlantic Meriodional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Over the coming two years, GCM-derived sea level outputs for future decades will be utilized in risk assessments for coastal flooding in New York City, Boston, and Philadelphia, as part of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast-RISA project. The Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM) will be used to produce best estimates (including uncertainty ranges) of sea level rise impacts for a wide range of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones for the 2010s, 2050s, and 2080s. Major improvements over prior studies include (a) the use of a detailed, extensively validated ocean model, and (b) inclusion of rainfall and river flow influences on coastal flooding, which affect flood levels in enclosed tidal waterways (e.g., the Hudson and Delaware Rivers), and which are also likely important in coastal confluence zones of impermeable urbanized watersheds. In addition to the sea level rise results, we present initial model validation results for historical storms.

Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in; Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030; Bansod, Baban K.S.

2015-02-15

Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models havemore » been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.« less

Probabilistic Scenario-based Seismic Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructures Method and Application for a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, J.

2006-12-01

Deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard analysis has a long tradition in earthquake engineering for developing the design basis of critical infrastructures like dams, transport infrastructures, chemical plants and nuclear power plants. For many applications besides of the design of infrastructures it is of interest to assess the efficiency of the design measures taken. These applications require a method allowing to perform a meaningful quantitative risk analysis. A new method for a probabilistic scenario-based seismic risk analysis has been developed based on a probabilistic extension of proven deterministic methods like the MCE- methodology. The input data required for the method are entirely based on the information which is necessary to perform any meaningful seismic hazard analysis. The method is based on the probabilistic risk analysis approach common for applications in nuclear technology developed originally by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). It is based (1) on a classification of earthquake events into different size classes (by magnitude), (2) the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of events, assigned to the different classes (frequency of initiating events, (3) the development of bounding critical scenarios assigned to each class based on the solution of an optimization problem and (4) in the evaluation of the conditional probability of exceedance of critical design parameters (vulnerability analysis). The advantage of the method in comparison with traditional PSHA consists in (1) its flexibility, allowing to use different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence as well as to incorporate advanced physical models into the analysis, (2) in the mathematically consistent treatment of uncertainties, and (3) in the explicit consideration of the lifetime of the critical structure as a criterion to formulate different risk goals. The method was applied for the evaluation of the risk of production interruption losses of a nuclear power plant during its residual lifetime.

Multi-Scale Infrastructure Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) multi-scale infrastructure assessment project supports both water resource adaptation to climate change and the rehabilitation of the nation’s aging water infrastructure by providing tools, scientific data and information to progra...

6 CFR 27.225 - Site security plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... meet the following standards: (1) Address each vulnerability identified in the facility's Security Vulnerability Assessment, and identify and describe the security measures to address each such vulnerability; (2... updates, revises or otherwise alters its Security Vulnerability Assessment pursuant to § 27.215(d), the...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

PubMed

Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species. PMID:28225817

An Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army Installations toImpacts of Climate Change on Listed and At-Risk Species

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

ER D C/ CE RL T R- 17 -2 5 Army Environmental Quality Technology An Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army...Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army Installations to Impacts of Climate Change on Listed and At-Risk Species Matthew G. Hohmann...their suitability for informing BRAC-related evaluations. Three recently developed methods for assessing the vulnerability of Army installations to

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Happenny, Sean F.

The United States’ power infrastructure is aging, underfunded, and vulnerable to cyber attack. Emerging smart grid technologies may take some of the burden off of existing systems and make the grid as a whole more efficient, reliable, and secure. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is funding research into several aspects of smart grid technology and grid security, creating a software simulation tool that will allow researchers to test power distribution networks utilizing different smart grid technologies to determine how the grid and these technologies react under different circumstances. Demonstrating security in embedded systems is another research area PNNL ismore » tackling. Many of the systems controlling the U.S. critical infrastructure, such as the power grid, lack integrated security and the networks protecting them are becoming easier to breach. Providing a virtual power substation network to each student team at the National Collegiate Cyber Defense Competition, thereby supporting the education of future cyber security professionals, is another way PNNL is helping to strengthen the security of the nation’s power infrastructure.« less

Support Process Development for Assessing Green Infrastructure in Omaha, NE

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Evaluates Omaha’s current process for assessing green infrastructure projects and recommends improvements for comparing green and gray infrastructure. Compares Omaha’s design criteria to other cities. Reviews other US programs with rights-of-way criteria.