“Estimating Regional Background Air Quality using Space/Time Ordinary Kriging to Support Exposure Studies”

EPA Science Inventory

Local-scale dispersion models are increasingly being used to perform exposure assessments. These types of models, while able to characterize local-scale air quality at increasing spatial scale, however, lack the ability to include background concentration in their overall estimat...

A Management Tool for Assessing Aquaculture Environmental Impacts in Chilean Patagonian Fjords: Integrating Hydrodynamic and Pellets Dispersion Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tironi, Antonio; Marin, Víctor H.; Campuzano, Francisco J.

2010-05-01

This article introduces a management tool for salmon farming, with a scope in the local sustainability of salmon aquaculture of the Aysen Fjord, Chilean Patagonia. Based on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) principles, the tool combines a large 3-level nested hydrodynamic model, a particle tracking module and a GIS application into an assessment tool for particulate waste dispersal of salmon farming activities. The model offers an open source alternative to particulate waste modeling and evaluation, contributing with valuable information for local decision makers in the process of locating new facilities and monitoring stations.

Blending Pan-European and local hydrological models for water resource assessment in Mediterranean areas: lessons learnt from a mountainous catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Polo, María; José Pérez-Palazón, María; Saénz de Rodrigáñez, Marta; Pimentel, Rafael; Arheimer, Berit

2017-04-01

Global hydrological models provide scientists and technicians with distributed data over medium to large areas from which assessment of water resource planning and use can be easily performed. However, scale conflicts between global models' spatial resolution and the local significant spatial scales in heterogeneous areas usually pose a constraint for the direct use and application of these models' results. The SWICCA (Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation) Platform developed under the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) offers a wide range of both climate and hydrological indicators obtained on a global scale with different time and spatial resolutions. Among the different study cases supporting the SWICCA demonstration of local impact assessment, the Sierra Nevada study case (South Spain) is a representative example of mountainous coastal catchments in the Mediterranean region. This work shows the lessons learnt during the study case development to derive local impact indicator tailored to suit the local end-users of water resource in this snow-dominated area. Different approaches were followed to select the most accurate method to downscale the global data and variables to the local level in a highly abrupt topography, in a sequential step approach. 1) SWICCA global climate variable downscaling followed by river flow simulation from a local hydrological model in selected control points in the catchment, together with 2) SWICCA global river flow values downscaling to the control points followed by corrections with local transfer functions were both tested against the available local river flow series of observations during the reference period. This test was performed for the different models and the available spatial resolutions included in the SWICCA platform. From the results, the second option, that is, the use of SWICCA river flow variables, performed the best approximations, once the local transfer functions were applied to the global values and an additional correction was performed based on the relative anomalies obtained instead of the absolute values. This approach was used to derive the future projections of selected local indicators for each end-user in the area under different climate change scenarios. Despite the spatial scale conflicts, the SWICCA river flow indicators (simulated by the E-HYPEv3.1.2 model) succeeded in approximating the observations during the reference period 1970-2000 when provided on a catchment scale, once local transfer functions and further anomaly correction were performed. Satisfactory results were obtained on a monthly scale for river flow in the main stream of the watershed, and on a daily scale for the headwater streams. The accessibility to the hydrological model WiMMed, which includes a snow module, locally validated in the study area has been crucial to downscale the SWICCA results and prove their usefulness.

AIR TOXICS MODELING FROM LOCAL TO REGIONAL SCALES TO SUPPORT THE 2002 MULTIPOLLUTANT ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This research focuses on developing models that can describe the chemical and physical processes affecting concentrations of toxic air pollutants in the atmosphere, at spatial scales, ranging from local (< 1 km) to regional (36 km). One objective of this task is to extend the ca...

Using ensemble models to identify and apportion heavy metal pollution sources in agricultural soils on a local scale.

PubMed

Wang, Qi; Xie, Zhiyi; Li, Fangbai

2015-11-01

This study aims to identify and apportion multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution from natural and anthropogenic inputs using ensemble models that include stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) and random forest (RF) in agricultural soils on the local scale. The heavy metal pollution sources were quantitatively assessed, and the results illustrated the suitability of the ensemble models for the assessment of multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution in agricultural soils on the local scale. The results of SGB and RF consistently demonstrated that anthropogenic sources contributed the most to the concentrations of Pb and Cd in agricultural soils in the study region and that SGB performed better than RF. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experiences with collaborative climate impacts assessments for regional governments in southwestern British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobie, S. R.; Murdock, T. Q.

2016-12-01

Infrastructure vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning have created demand for detailed information about climate change and extreme events from local and regional governments. Individual communities often have distinct priorities regarding climate change impacts. While projections from climate models are available to investigate these impacts, they are not always applicable or easily interpreted by local agencies. We discuss a series of climate impacts assessments for several regional and local governments in southwestern British Columbia. Each of the assessments was conducted with input from the users on project definition from the start of the process and on interpretation of results throughout each project. To produce sufficient detail for the assessment regions, we produce high-resolution (800m) simulations of precipitation and temperature using downscaled climate model projections. Sets of derived climate parameters tailored to each region are calculated from both standard indices such as CLIMDEX and from an energy-balance snowpack model. Involving user groups from the beginning of the analysis helps to convey the meaning and confidence of each set of climate change parameters to users and also clarifies what projections are feasible or not for impact assessments. We discuss the different levels of involvement and collaboration with each organization, and the resulting decisions implemented following each of the projects.

An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.

2017-12-01

Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.

Revisiting Gaussian Process Regression Modeling for Localization in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Richter, Philipp; Toledano-Ayala, Manuel

2015-01-01

Signal strength-based positioning in wireless sensor networks is a key technology for seamless, ubiquitous localization, especially in areas where Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals propagate poorly. To enable wireless local area network (WLAN) location fingerprinting in larger areas while maintaining accuracy, methods to reduce the effort of radio map creation must be consolidated and automatized. Gaussian process regression has been applied to overcome this issue, also with auspicious results, but the fit of the model was never thoroughly assessed. Instead, most studies trained a readily available model, relying on the zero mean and squared exponential covariance function, without further scrutinization. This paper studies the Gaussian process regression model selection for WLAN fingerprinting in indoor and outdoor environments. We train several models for indoor/outdoor- and combined areas; we evaluate them quantitatively and compare them by means of adequate model measures, hence assessing the fit of these models directly. To illuminate the quality of the model fit, the residuals of the proposed model are investigated, as well. Comparative experiments on the positioning performance verify and conclude the model selection. In this way, we show that the standard model is not the most appropriate, discuss alternatives and present our best candidate. PMID:26370996

GIS-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING: THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving from simple, local scale problems toward complex, spatially explicit regional ones. Such problems have to be
addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial a...

Environmental modelling of use of treated organic waste on agricultural land: a comparison of existing models for life cycle assessment of waste systems.

PubMed

Hansen, Trine Lund; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Schmidt, Sonia

2006-04-01

Modelling of environmental impacts from the application of treated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) in agriculture differs widely between different models for environmental assessment of waste systems. In this comparative study five models were examined concerning quantification and impact assessment of environmental effects from land application of treated organic MSW: DST (Decision Support Tool, USA), IWM (Integrated Waste Management, U.K.), THE IFEU PROJECT (Germany), ORWARE (ORganic WAste REsearch, Sweden) and EASEWASTE (Environmental Assessment of Solid Waste Systems and Technologies, Denmark). DST and IWM are life cycle inventory (LCI) models, thus not performing actual impact assessment. The DST model includes only one water emission (biological oxygen demand) from compost leaching in the results and IWM considers only air emissions from avoided production of commercial fertilizers. THE IFEU PROJECT, ORWARE and EASEWASTE are life cycle assessment (LCA) models containing more detailed land application modules. A case study estimating the environmental impacts from land application of 1 ton of composted source sorted organic household waste was performed to compare the results from the different models and investigate the origin of any difference in type or magnitude of the results. The contributions from the LCI models were limited and did not depend on waste composition or local agricultural conditions. The three LCA models use the same overall approach for quantifying the impacts of the system. However, due to slightly different assumptions, quantification methods and environmental impact assessment, the obtained results varied clearly between the models. Furthermore, local conditions (e.g. soil type, farm type, climate and legal regulation) and waste composition strongly influenced the results of the environmental assessment.

Localized Multi-Model Extremes Metrics for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. R.; Kunkel, K.; Stevens, L. E.; Easterling, D. R.; Biard, J.; Sun, L.

2017-12-01

We have performed localized analysis of scenario-based datasets for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). These datasets include CMIP5-based Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled simulations at daily temporal resolution and 1/16th-degree spatial resolution. Over 45 temperature and precipitation extremes metrics have been processed using LOCA data, including threshold, percentile, and degree-days calculations. The localized analysis calculates trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes metrics for relatively small regions such as counties, metropolitan areas, climate zones, administrative areas, or economic zones. For NCA4, we are currently addressing metropolitan areas as defined by U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Such localized analysis provides essential information for adaptation planning at scales relevant to local planning agencies and businesses. Nearly 30 such regions have been analyzed to date. Each locale is defined by a closed polygon that is used to extract LOCA-based extremes metrics specific to the area. For each metric, single-model data at each LOCA grid location are first averaged over several 30-year historical and future periods. Then, for each metric, the spatial average across the region is calculated using model weights based on both model independence and reproducibility of current climate conditions. The range of single-model results is also captured on the same localized basis, and then combined with the weighted ensemble average for each region and each metric. For example, Boston-area cooling degree days and maximum daily temperature is shown below for RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (blue) scenarios. We also discuss inter-regional comparison of these metrics, as well as their relevance to risk analysis for adaptation planning.

A Comparison of Financing Illinois Unit School Districts for the School Year 1974-75 with the Alternative Financing Models Developed by the National Educational Finance Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conti, Dennis R.

This study compares the present method of financing Illinois public schools for the school year 1973-74 with six alternative financing models developed by the National Educational Finance Project (NEFP). The NEFP models were as follows: complete local support, flat grant with local leeway limit of 12 mills of equalized assessed valuation,…

Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

2015-04-01

The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to the the river gauging station data at the German part of the Rhine river basin. This is an important finding that both 0.5-km and 20-km BTOP models produce similar flood peak discharges although the 0.5-km BTOP model results indicate the importance of scale in the local flood hazard assessment. In summary, we highlight that this study serves as a demonstrative example of institutional collaboration and is stepping stone for the next step implementation of the IFI Flagship Project.

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Bella, Elizabeth S.; Carlson, Matthew L.; Graziano, Gino; Lamb, Melinda; Seefeldt, Steven S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

2010-12-01

Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing the impacts of multiple GCM ensemble members. The implications of various approaches to dealing with uncertainty, such as these, must be carefully communicated to decision makers in order for projected climate impacts to be viewed as credible and used appropriately.

Setting up a hydrological model based on global data for the Ayeyarwady basin in Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Velden, Corine; Sloff, Kees; Nauta, Tjitte

2017-04-01

The use of global datasets in local hydrological modelling can be of great value. It opens up the possibility to include data for areas where local data is not or only sparsely available. In hydrological modelling the existence of both static physical data such as elevation and land use, and dynamic meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature, is essential for setting up a hydrological model, but often such data is difficult to obtain at the local level. For the Ayeyarwady catchment in Myanmar a distributed hydrological model (Wflow: https://github.com/openstreams/wflow) was set up with only global datasets, as part of a water resources study. Myanmar is an emerging economy, which has only recently become more receptive to foreign influences. It has a very limited hydrometeorological measurement network, with large spatial and temporal gaps, and data that are of uncertain quality and difficult to obtain. The hydrological model was thus set up based on resampled versions of the SRTM digital elevation model, the GlobCover land cover dataset and the HWSD soil dataset. Three global meteorological datasets were assessed and compared for use in the hydrological model: TRMM, WFDEI and MSWEP. The meteorological datasets were assessed based on their conformity with several precipitation station measurements, and the overall model performance was assessed by calculating the NSE and RVE based on discharge measurements of several gauging stations. The model was run for the period 1979-2012 on a daily time step, and the results show an acceptable applicability of the used global datasets in the hydrological model. The WFDEI forcing dataset gave the best results, with a NSE of 0.55 at the outlet of the model and a RVE of 8.5%, calculated over the calibration period 2006-2012. As a general trend the modelled discharge at the upstream stations tends to be underestimated, and at the downstream stations slightly overestimated. The quality of the discharge measurements that form the basis for the performance calculations is uncertain; data analysis suggests that rating curves are not frequently updated. The modelling results are not perfect and there is ample room for improvement, but the results are reasonable given the notion that setting up a hydrological model for this area would not have been possible without the use of global datasets due to the lack of available local data. The resulting hydrological model then enabled the set-up of the RIBASIM water allocation model for the Ayeyarwady basin in order to assess its water resources. The study discussed here is a first step; ideally this is followed up by a more thorough calibration and validation with the limited local measurements available, e.g. a precipitation correction based on the available rainfall measurements, to ensure the integration of global and local data.

Stochastic output error vibration-based damage detection and assessment in structures under earthquake excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakellariou, J. S.; Fassois, S. D.

2006-11-01

A stochastic output error (OE) vibration-based methodology for damage detection and assessment (localization and quantification) in structures under earthquake excitation is introduced. The methodology is intended for assessing the state of a structure following potential damage occurrence by exploiting vibration signal measurements produced by low-level earthquake excitations. It is based upon (a) stochastic OE model identification, (b) statistical hypothesis testing procedures for damage detection, and (c) a geometric method (GM) for damage assessment. The methodology's advantages include the effective use of the non-stationary and limited duration earthquake excitation, the handling of stochastic uncertainties, the tackling of the damage localization and quantification subproblems, the use of "small" size, simple and partial (in both the spatial and frequency bandwidth senses) identified OE-type models, and the use of a minimal number of measured vibration signals. Its feasibility and effectiveness are assessed via Monte Carlo experiments employing a simple simulation model of a 6 storey building. It is demonstrated that damage levels of 5% and 20% reduction in a storey's stiffness characteristics may be properly detected and assessed using noise-corrupted vibration signals.

Models of vegetation change for landscape planning: a comparison of FETM, LANDSUM, SIMPPLLE, and VDDT

Treesearch

T. M. Barrett

2001-01-01

Landscape assessment and planning often depend on the ability to predict change of vegetation. This report compares four modeling systems (FETM, LANDSUM, SIMPPLLE, and VDDT) that can be used to understand changes resulting from succession, natural disturbance, and management activities. The four models may be useful for regional or local assessments in National Forest...

Estimation of reliability of predictions and model applicability domain evaluation in the analysis of acute toxicity (LD50).

PubMed

Sazonovas, A; Japertas, P; Didziapetris, R

2010-01-01

This study presents a new type of acute toxicity (LD(50)) prediction that enables automated assessment of the reliability of predictions (which is synonymous with the assessment of the Model Applicability Domain as defined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Analysis involved nearly 75,000 compounds from six animal systems (acute rat toxicity after oral and intraperitoneal administration; acute mouse toxicity after oral, intraperitoneal, intravenous, and subcutaneous administration). Fragmental Partial Least Squares (PLS) with 100 bootstraps yielded baseline predictions that were automatically corrected for non-linear effects in local chemical spaces--a combination called Global, Adjusted Locally According to Similarity (GALAS) modelling methodology. Each prediction obtained in this manner is provided with a reliability index value that depends on both compound's similarity to the training set (that accounts for similar trends in LD(50) variations within multiple bootstraps) and consistency of experimental results with regard to the baseline model in the local chemical environment. The actual performance of the Reliability Index (RI) was proven by its good (and uniform) correlations with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in all validation sets, thus providing quantitative assessment of the Model Applicability Domain. The obtained models can be used for compound screening in the early stages of drug development and prioritization for experimental in vitro testing or later in vivo animal acute toxicity studies.

Assessment and visualization of uncertainty for countrywide soil organic matter map of Hungary using local entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szatmári, Gábor; Pásztor, László

2016-04-01

Uncertainty is a general term expressing our imperfect knowledge in describing an environmental process and we are aware of it (Bárdossy and Fodor, 2004). Sampling, laboratory measurements, models and so on are subject to uncertainty. Effective quantification and visualization of uncertainty would be indispensable to stakeholders (e.g. policy makers, society). Soil related features and their spatial models should be stressfully targeted to uncertainty assessment because their inferences are further used in modelling and decision making process. The aim of our present study was to assess and effectively visualize the local uncertainty of the countrywide soil organic matter (SOM) spatial distribution model of Hungary using geostatistical tools and concepts. The Hungarian Soil Information and Monitoring System's SOM data (approximately 1,200 observations) and environmental related, spatially exhaustive secondary information (i.e. digital elevation model, climatic maps, MODIS satellite images and geological map) were used to model the countrywide SOM spatial distribution by regression kriging. It would be common to use the calculated estimation (or kriging) variance as a measure of uncertainty, however the normality and homoscedasticity hypotheses have to be refused according to our preliminary analysis on the data. Therefore, a normal score transformation and a sequential stochastic simulation approach was introduced to be able to model and assess the local uncertainty. Five hundred equally probable realizations (i.e. stochastic images) were generated. The number of the stochastic images is fairly enough to provide a model of uncertainty at each location, which is a complete description of uncertainty in geostatistics (Deutsch and Journel, 1998). Furthermore, these models can be applied e.g. to contour the probability of any events, which can be regarded as goal oriented digital soil maps and are of interest for agricultural management and decision making as well. A standardized measure of the local entropy was used to visualize uncertainty, where entropy values close to 1 correspond to high uncertainty, whilst values close to 0 correspond low uncertainty. The advantage of the usage of local entropy in this context is that it combines probabilities from multiple members into a single number for each location of the model. In conclusion, it is straightforward to use a sequential stochastic simulation approach to the assessment of uncertainty, when normality and homoscedasticity are violated. The visualization of uncertainty using the local entropy is effective and communicative to stakeholders because it represents the uncertainty through a single number within a [0, 1] scale. References: Bárdossy, Gy. & Fodor, J., 2004. Evaluation of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg. Deutsch, C.V. & Journel, A.G., 1998. GSLIB: geostatistical software library and user's guide. Oxford University Press, New York. Acknowledgement: Our work was supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).

One size fits all? An assessment tool for solid waste management at local and national levels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broitman, Dani, E-mail: danib@techunix.technion.ac.il; Ayalon, Ofira; Kan, Iddo

2012-10-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Waste management schemes are generally implemented at national or regional level. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Local conditions characteristics and constraints are often neglected. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We developed an economic model able to compare multi-level waste management options. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A detailed test case with real economic data and a best-fit scenario is described. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Most efficient schemes combine clear National directives with local level flexibility. - Abstract: As environmental awareness rises, integrated solid waste management (WM) schemes are increasingly being implemented all over the world. The different WM schemes usually address issues such as landfilling restrictions (mainly due to methane emissions and competingmore » land use), packaging directives and compulsory recycling goals. These schemes are, in general, designed at a national or regional level, whereas local conditions and constraints are sometimes neglected. When national WM top-down policies, in addition to setting goals, also dictate the methods by which they are to be achieved, local authorities lose their freedom to optimize their operational WM schemes according to their specific characteristics. There are a myriad of implementation options at the local level, and by carrying out a bottom-up approach the overall national WM system will be optimal on economic and environmental scales. This paper presents a model for optimizing waste strategies at a local level and evaluates this effect at a national level. This is achieved by using a waste assessment model which enables us to compare both the economic viability of several WM options at the local (single municipal authority) level, and aggregated results for regional or national levels. A test case based on various WM approaches in Israel (several implementations of mixed and separated waste) shows that local characteristics significantly influence WM costs, and therefore the optimal scheme is one under which each local authority is able to implement its best-fitting mechanism, given that national guidelines are kept. The main result is that strict national/regional WM policies may be less efficient, unless some type of local flexibility is implemented. Our model is designed both for top-down and bottom-up assessment, and can be easily adapted for a wide range of WM option comparisons at different levels.« less

Allometric Equations for Aboveground and Belowground Biomass Estimations in an Evergreen Forest in Vietnam.

PubMed

Nam, Vu Thanh; van Kuijk, Marijke; Anten, Niels P R

2016-01-01

Allometric regression models are widely used to estimate tropical forest biomass, but balancing model accuracy with efficiency of implementation remains a major challenge. In addition, while numerous models exist for aboveground mass, very few exist for roots. We developed allometric equations for aboveground biomass (AGB) and root biomass (RB) based on 300 (of 45 species) and 40 (of 25 species) sample trees respectively, in an evergreen forest in Vietnam. The biomass estimations from these local models were compared to regional and pan-tropical models. For AGB we also compared local models that distinguish functional types to an aggregated model, to assess the degree of specificity needed in local models. Besides diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height (H), wood density (WD) was found to be an important parameter in AGB models. Existing pan-tropical models resulted in up to 27% higher estimates of AGB, and overestimated RB by nearly 150%, indicating the greater accuracy of local models at the plot level. Our functional group aggregated local model which combined data for all species, was as accurate in estimating AGB as functional type specific models, indicating that a local aggregated model is the best choice for predicting plot level AGB in tropical forests. Finally our study presents the first allometric biomass models for aboveground and root biomass in forests in Vietnam.

Allometric Equations for Aboveground and Belowground Biomass Estimations in an Evergreen Forest in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Nam, Vu Thanh; van Kuijk, Marijke; Anten, Niels P. R.

2016-01-01

Allometric regression models are widely used to estimate tropical forest biomass, but balancing model accuracy with efficiency of implementation remains a major challenge. In addition, while numerous models exist for aboveground mass, very few exist for roots. We developed allometric equations for aboveground biomass (AGB) and root biomass (RB) based on 300 (of 45 species) and 40 (of 25 species) sample trees respectively, in an evergreen forest in Vietnam. The biomass estimations from these local models were compared to regional and pan-tropical models. For AGB we also compared local models that distinguish functional types to an aggregated model, to assess the degree of specificity needed in local models. Besides diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height (H), wood density (WD) was found to be an important parameter in AGB models. Existing pan-tropical models resulted in up to 27% higher estimates of AGB, and overestimated RB by nearly 150%, indicating the greater accuracy of local models at the plot level. Our functional group aggregated local model which combined data for all species, was as accurate in estimating AGB as functional type specific models, indicating that a local aggregated model is the best choice for predicting plot level AGB in tropical forests. Finally our study presents the first allometric biomass models for aboveground and root biomass in forests in Vietnam. PMID:27309718

Sustained Climate Assessments in California: Linkages with Local and National Efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franco, G.; Bedsworth, L. W.

2016-12-01

This presentation will include discussions about the nature of the sustained Climate Assessments in California and their links to local, regional, and national efforts. The State of California has been supporting regional climate change science for more than two decades to complement federal and international research efforts. State sponsored research has been extremely useful to inform climate policy action and long-term planning in California. California has undertaken six climate assessments since 1998; the last three of these began in 2006 in response to an Executive Order from the Governor. California is now coordinating its next assessment (2018) not only with local/regional efforts (e.g., a group of studies focused on the San Francisco Bay region) but also with USGCRP and the next National Assessment. California is also already supporting foundation work for models and tools that would be used for the 2022 California Assessment.

Protocol and Demonstrations of Probabilistic Reliability Assessment for Structural Health Monitoring Systems (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

assessment to quality of localization/characterization estimates. This protocol includes four critical components: (1) a procedure to identify the...critical factors impacting SHM system performance; (2) a multistage or hierarchical approach to SHM system validation; (3) a model -assisted evaluation...Lindgren, E. A ., Buynak, C. F., Steffes, G., Derriso, M., “ Model -assisted Probabilistic Reliability Assessment for Structural Health Monitoring

Introducing local property tax for fiscal decentralization and local authority autonomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimopoulos, Thomas; Labropoulos, Tassos; Hadjimitsis, Diafantos G.

2015-06-01

Charles Tiebout (1956), in his work "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures", provides a vision of the workings of the local public sector, acknowledging many similarities to the features of a competitive market, however omitting any references to local taxation. Contrary to other researchers' claim that the Tiebout model and the theory of fiscal decentralization are by no means synonymous, this paper aims to expand Tiebout's theory, by adding the local property tax in the context, introducing a fair, ad valorem property taxation system based on the automated assessment of the value of real estate properties within the boundaries of local authorities. Computer Assisted Mass Appraisal methodology integrated with Remote Sensing technology and GIS analysis is applied to local authorities' property registries and cadastral data, building a spatial relational database and providing data to be statistically processed through Multiple Regression Analysis modeling. The proposed scheme accomplishes economy of scale using CAMA procedures on one hand, but also succeeds in making local authorities self-sufficient through a decentralized, fair, locally calibrated property taxation model, providing rational income administration.

Modelling the regional application of stakeholder identified land management strategies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, B. J.; Fleskens, L.; Kirkby, M. J.

2012-04-01

The DESIRE project has trialled a series of sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. These technologies have been identified as being beneficial in mitigating land degradation by local stakeholders from a range of semi-arid study sites. The field results and the qualitative WOCAT technology assessment ftom across the study sites have been used to develop the adapted PESERA SLM model. This paper considers the development of the adapted PESERA SLM model and the potential for applying locally successful SLM technologies across a wider range of climatic and environmental conditions with respect to degradation risk, biomass production and the investment cost interface (PESERA/DESMICE). The integrate PESERA/DESMICE model contributes to the policy debate by providing a biophysical and socio-economic assessment of technology and policy scenarios.

Recent developments in imaging system assessment methodology, FROC analysis and the search model.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Dev P

2011-08-21

A frequent problem in imaging is assessing whether a new imaging system is an improvement over an existing standard. Observer performance methods, in particular the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) paradigm, are widely used in this context. In ROC analysis lesion location information is not used and consequently scoring ambiguities can arise in tasks, such as nodule detection, involving finding localized lesions. This paper reviews progress in the free-response ROC (FROC) paradigm in which the observer marks and rates suspicious regions and the location information is used to determine whether lesions were correctly localized. Reviewed are FROC data analysis, a search-model for simulating FROC data, predictions of the model and a method for estimating the parameters. The search model parameters are physically meaningful quantities that can guide system optimization.

East Tennessee State University's "Make a Difference" Project: Using a Team-Based Consultative Model To Conduct Functional Behavioral Assessments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vaughn, Kelley; Hales, Cindy; Bush, Marta; Fox, James

1998-01-01

Describes implementation of functional behavioral assessment (FBA) through collaboration between a university (East Tennessee State University) and the local school system. Discusses related issues such as factors in team training, team size, FBA adaptations, and replicability of the FBA team model. (Author/DB)

GPCC - A weather generator-based statistical downscaling tool for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resolution of climate model outputs are too coarse to be used as direct inputs to impact models for assessing climate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and eco-system services at local or site-specific scales. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge th...

Local network assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glen, D. V.

1985-04-01

Local networks, related standards activities of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers the American National Standards Institute and other elements are presented. These elements include: (1) technology choices such as topology, transmission media, and access protocols; (2) descriptions of standards for the 802 local area networks (LAN's); high speed local networks (HSLN's) and military specification local networks; and (3) intra- and internetworking using bridges and gateways with protocols Interconnection (OSI) reference model. The convergence of LAN/PBX technology is also described.

Multiscale Spatial Modeling of Human Exposure from Local Sources to Global Intake.

PubMed

Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-01-16

Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals, are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea, an innovative multiscale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties are expressed as the evolution of the population intake fraction through inhalation and ingestion as a function of the distance from sources. For substances with atmospheric half-lives longer than a week, less than 20% of the global population intake through inhalation (median of 126 emission scenarios) can occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ∼10 000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route which locations minimize global intakes. Maps of global intake fractions associated with each emission location show clear patterns associated with population and agriculture production densities.

Feasibility of Assessing Public Health Impacts of Air Pollution Reduction Programs on a Local Scale: New Haven Case Study

PubMed Central

Lobdell, Danelle T.; Isakov, Vlad; Baxter, Lisa; Touma, Jawad S.; Smuts, Mary Beth; Özkaynak, Halûk

2011-01-01

Background New approaches to link health surveillance data with environmental and population exposure information are needed to examine the health benefits of risk management decisions. Objective We examined the feasibility of conducting a local assessment of the public health impacts of cumulative air pollution reduction activities from federal, state, local, and voluntary actions in the City of New Haven, Connecticut (USA). Methods Using a hybrid modeling approach that combines regional and local-scale air quality data, we estimated ambient concentrations for multiple air pollutants [e.g., PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter), NOx (nitrogen oxides)] for baseline year 2001 and projected emissions for 2010, 2020, and 2030. We assessed the feasibility of detecting health improvements in relation to reductions in air pollution for 26 different pollutant–health outcome linkages using both sample size and exploratory epidemiological simulations to further inform decision-making needs. Results Model projections suggested decreases (~ 10–60%) in pollutant concentrations, mainly attributable to decreases in pollutants from local sources between 2001 and 2010. Models indicated considerable spatial variability in the concentrations of most pollutants. Sample size analyses supported the feasibility of identifying linkages between reductions in NOx and improvements in all-cause mortality, prevalence of asthma in children and adults, and cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations. Conclusion Substantial reductions in air pollution (e.g., ~ 60% for NOx) are needed to detect health impacts of environmental actions using traditional epidemiological study designs in small communities like New Haven. In contrast, exploratory epidemiological simulations suggest that it may be possible to demonstrate the health impacts of PM reductions by predicting intraurban pollution gradients within New Haven using coupled models. PMID:21335318

Integrating local pastoral knowledge, participatory mapping, and species distribution modeling for risk assessment of invasive rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora) in Ethiopia’s Afar region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luizza, Matthew; Wakie, Tewodros; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2016-01-01

The threats posed by invasive plants span ecosystems and economies worldwide. Local knowledge of biological invasions has proven beneficial for invasive species research, but to date no work has integrated this knowledge with species distribution modeling for invasion risk assessments. In this study, we integrated pastoral knowledge with Maxent modeling to assess the suitable habitat and potential impacts of invasive Cryptostegia grandiflora Robx. Ex R.Br. (rubber vine) in Ethiopia’s Afar region. We conducted focus groups with seven villages across the Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts. Pastoral knowledge revealed the growing threat of rubber vine, which to date has received limited attention in Ethiopia, and whose presence in Afar was previously unknown to our team. Rubber vine occurrence points were collected in the field with pastoralists and processed in Maxent with MODIS-derived vegetation indices, topographic data, and anthropogenic variables. We tested model fit using a jackknife procedure and validated the final model with an independent occurrence data set collected through participatory mapping activities with pastoralists. A Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis revealed areas with novel environmental conditions for future targeted surveys. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and showed good fit across the jackknife models (average AUC = 0.80) and the final model (test AUC = 0.96). Our results reveal the growing threat rubber vine poses to Afar, with suitable habitat extending downstream of its current known location in the middle Awash River basin. Local pastoral knowledge provided important context for its rapid expansion due to acute changes in seasonality and habitat alteration, in addition to threats posed to numerous endemic tree species that provide critical provisioning ecosystem services. This work demonstrates the utility of integrating local ecological knowledge with species distribution modeling for early detection and targeted surveying of recently established invasive species.

Spatial assessment of land degradation through key ecosystem services: The role of globally available data.

PubMed

Cerretelli, Stefania; Poggio, Laura; Gimona, Alessandro; Yakob, Getahun; Boke, Shiferaw; Habte, Mulugeta; Coull, Malcolm; Peressotti, Alessandro; Black, Helaina

2018-07-01

Land degradation is a serious issue especially in dry and developing countries leading to ecosystem services (ESS) degradation due to soil functions' depletion. Reliably mapping land degradation spatial distribution is therefore important for policy decisions. The main objectives of this paper were to infer land degradation through ESS assessment and compare the modelling results obtained using different sets of data. We modelled important physical processes (sediment erosion and nutrient export) and the equivalent ecosystem services (sediment and nutrient retention) to infer land degradation in an area in the Ethiopian Great Rift Valley. To model soil erosion/retention capability, and nitrogen export/retention capability, two datasets were used: a 'global' dataset derived from existing global-coverage data and a hybrid dataset where global data were integrated with data from local surveys. The results showed that ESS assessments can be used to infer land degradation and identify priority areas for interventions. The comparison between the modelling results of the two different input datasets showed that caution is necessary if only global-coverage data are used at a local scale. In remote and data-poor areas, an approach that integrates global data with targeted local sampling campaigns might be a good compromise to use ecosystem services in decision-making. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

In Vivo Methods for the Assessment of Topical Drug Bioavailability

PubMed Central

Herkenne, Christophe; Alberti, Ingo; Naik, Aarti; Kalia, Yogeshvar N.; Mathy, François-Xavier; Préat, Véronique

2007-01-01

This paper reviews some current methods for the in vivo assessment of local cutaneous bioavailability in humans after topical drug application. After an introduction discussing the importance of local drug bioavailability assessment and the limitations of model-based predictions, the focus turns to the relevance of experimental studies. The available techniques are then reviewed in detail, with particular emphasis on the tape stripping and microdialysis methodologies. Other less developed techniques, including the skin biopsy, suction blister, follicle removal and confocal Raman spectroscopy techniques are also described. PMID:17985216

Capturing nonlocal interaction effects in the Hubbard model: Optimal mappings and limits of applicability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Loon, E. G. C. P.; Schüler, M.; Katsnelson, M. I.; Wehling, T. O.

2016-10-01

We investigate the Peierls-Feynman-Bogoliubov variational principle to map Hubbard models with nonlocal interactions to effective models with only local interactions. We study the renormalization of the local interaction induced by nearest-neighbor interaction and assess the quality of the effective Hubbard models in reproducing observables of the corresponding extended Hubbard models. We compare the renormalization of the local interactions as obtained from numerically exact determinant quantum Monte Carlo to approximate but more generally applicable calculations using dual boson, dynamical mean field theory, and the random phase approximation. These more approximate approaches are crucial for any application with real materials in mind. Furthermore, we use the dual boson method to calculate observables of the extended Hubbard models directly and benchmark these against determinant quantum Monte Carlo simulations of the effective Hubbard model.

Estimated long-term outdoor air pollution concentrations in a cohort study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Fischer, Paul; Brandt, Piet A. van den; Brunekreef, Bert

Several recent studies associated long-term exposure to air pollution with increased mortality. An ongoing cohort study, the Netherlands Cohort Study on Diet and Cancer (NLCS), was used to study the association between long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and mortality. Following on a previous exposure assessment study in the NLCS, we improved the exposure assessment methods. Long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), nitrogen oxide (NO), black smoke (BS), and sulphur dioxide (SO 2) was estimated. Exposure at each home address ( N=21 868) was considered as a function of a regional, an urban and a local component. The regional component was estimated using inverse distance weighed interpolation of measurement data from regional background sites in a national monitoring network. Regression models with urban concentrations as dependent variables, and number of inhabitants in different buffers and land use variables, derived with a Geographic Information System (GIS), as predictor variables were used to estimate the urban component. The local component was assessed using a GIS and a digital road network with linked traffic intensities. Traffic intensity on the nearest road and on the nearest major road, and the sum of traffic intensity in a buffer of 100 m around each home address were assessed. Further, a quantitative estimate of the local component was estimated. The regression models to estimate the urban component explained 67%, 46%, 49% and 35% of the variances of NO 2, NO, BS, and SO 2 concentrations, respectively. Overall regression models which incorporated the regional, urban and local component explained 84%, 44%, 59% and 56% of the variability in concentrations for NO 2, NO, BS and SO 2, respectively. We were able to develop an exposure assessment model using GIS methods and traffic intensities that explained a large part of the variations in outdoor air pollution concentrations.

Assessment of chemical fate in the environment using evaluative, regional and local-scale models: Illustrative application to chlorobenzene and linear alkylbenzene sulfonates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mackay, D.; Di Guardo, A.; Paterson, S.

Evaluation of chemical fate in the environment has been suggested to be best accomplished using a five-stage process in which a sequence of increasing site-specific multimedia mass balance models is applied. This approach is illustrated for chlorobenzene and linear alkylbenzene sulfonates (LAS). The first two stages involve classifying the chemical and quantifying the emissions into each environmental compartment. In the third stage, the characteristics of the chemical are determined using the evaluative equilibrium criterion model, which is capable of treating a variety of chemicals including those that are in volatile and insoluble in water. This evaluation is conducted in threemore » steps using levels 1, 2, and 3 versions of the model, which introduce increasing complexity and more realistic representations of the environment. In the fourth stage, ChemCAN, which is a level 3 model for specific regions of Canada, is used to predict the chemical`s fate in southern Ontario. The final stage is to apply local environmental models to predict environmental exposure concentrations. For chlorobenzene, the local model was the SoilFug model, which predicts the fate of agrochemicals, and for LAS the WW-TREAT, GRiDS, and ROUT models were used to predict the fate of LAS in a sewage treatment plant and in riverine receiving waters. It is concluded that this systematic approach provides a comprehensive assessment of chemical fate, revealing the broad characteristics of chemical behavior and quantifying the likely local and regional exposure levels.« less

Standardised Library Instruction Assessment: An Institution-Specific Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Staley, Shannon M.; Branch, Nicole A.; Hewitt, Tom L.

2010-01-01

Introduction: We explore the use of a psychometric model for locally-relevant, information literacy assessment, using an online tool for standardised assessment of student learning during discipline-based library instruction sessions. Method: A quantitative approach to data collection and analysis was used, employing standardised multiple-choice…

Crystal plasticity investigation of the microstructural factors influencing dislocation channeling in a model irradiated bcc material

DOE PAGES

Patra, Anirban; McDowell, David L.

2016-03-25

We use a continuum crystal plasticity framework to study the effect of microstructure and mesoscopic factors on dislocation channeling and flow localization in an irradiated model bcc alloy. For simulated dislocation channeling characteristics we correlate the dislocation and defect densities in the substructure, local Schmid factor, and stress triaxiality, in terms of their temporal and spatial evolution. A metric is introduced to assess the propensity for localization and is correlated to the grain-level Schmid factor. We also found that localization generally takes place in grains with a local Schmid factor in the range 0.42 or higher. Surface slip step heightsmore » are computed at free surfaces and compared to relevant experiments.« less

MetaMQAP: a meta-server for the quality assessment of protein models.

PubMed

Pawlowski, Marcin; Gajda, Michal J; Matlak, Ryszard; Bujnicki, Janusz M

2008-09-29

Computational models of protein structure are usually inaccurate and exhibit significant deviations from the true structure. The utility of models depends on the degree of these deviations. A number of predictive methods have been developed to discriminate between the globally incorrect and approximately correct models. However, only a few methods predict correctness of different parts of computational models. Several Model Quality Assessment Programs (MQAPs) have been developed to detect local inaccuracies in unrefined crystallographic models, but it is not known if they are useful for computational models, which usually exhibit different and much more severe errors. The ability to identify local errors in models was tested for eight MQAPs: VERIFY3D, PROSA, BALA, ANOLEA, PROVE, TUNE, REFINER, PROQRES on 8251 models from the CASP-5 and CASP-6 experiments, by calculating the Spearman's rank correlation coefficients between per-residue scores of these methods and local deviations between C-alpha atoms in the models vs. experimental structures. As a reference, we calculated the value of correlation between the local deviations and trivial features that can be calculated for each residue directly from the models, i.e. solvent accessibility, depth in the structure, and the number of local and non-local neighbours. We found that absolute correlations of scores returned by the MQAPs and local deviations were poor for all methods. In addition, scores of PROQRES and several other MQAPs strongly correlate with 'trivial' features. Therefore, we developed MetaMQAP, a meta-predictor based on a multivariate regression model, which uses scores of the above-mentioned methods, but in which trivial parameters are controlled. MetaMQAP predicts the absolute deviation (in Angströms) of individual C-alpha atoms between the model and the unknown true structure as well as global deviations (expressed as root mean square deviation and GDT_TS scores). Local model accuracy predicted by MetaMQAP shows an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.7 with true deviations from native structures, a significant improvement over all constituent primary MQAP scores. The global MetaMQAP score is correlated with model GDT_TS on the level of 0.89. Finally, we compared our method with the MQAPs that scored best in the 7th edition of CASP, using CASP7 server models (not included in the MetaMQAP training set) as the test data. In our benchmark, MetaMQAP is outperformed only by PCONS6 and method QA_556 - methods that require comparison of multiple alternative models and score each of them depending on its similarity to other models. MetaMQAP is however the best among methods capable of evaluating just single models. We implemented the MetaMQAP as a web server available for free use by all academic users at the URL https://genesilico.pl/toolkit/

Magnetic resonance dispersion imaging for localization of angiogenesis and cancer growth.

PubMed

Mischi, Massimo; Turco, Simona; Lavini, Cristina; Kompatsiari, Kyveli; de la Rosette, Jean J M C H; Breeuwer, Marcel; Wijkstra, Hessel

2014-08-01

Cancer angiogenesis can be imaged by using dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI). Pharmacokinetic modeling can be used to assess vascular perfusion and permeability, but the assessment of angiogenic changes in the microvascular architecture remains challenging. This article presents 2 models enabling the characterization of the microvascular architecture by DCE-MRI. The microvascular architecture is reflected in the dispersion coefficient according to the convective dispersion equation. A solution of this equation, combined with the Tofts model, permits defining a dispersion model for magnetic resonance imaging. A reduced dispersion model is also presented. The proposed models were evaluated for prostate cancer diagnosis. Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging was performed, and concentration-time curves were calculated in each voxel. The simultaneous generation of parametric maps related to permeability and dispersion was obtained through model fitting. A preliminary validation was carried out through comparison with the histology in 15 patients referred for radical prostatectomy. Cancer localization was accurate with both dispersion models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve greater than 0.8. None of the compared parameters, aimed at assessing vascular permeability and perfusion, showed better results. A new DCE-MRI method is proposed to characterize the microvascular architecture through the assessment of intravascular dispersion, without the need for separate arterial-input-function estimation. The results are promising and encourage further research.

EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM: USING MONITORING DATA AND MODEL RESULTS TO TARGET ACTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Until recently, ecological studies and management practices were conducted and implemented at local scales. During the past two decades, however, it has become clear that evaluations of environmental problems and management practices cannot be considered only at local scales. Inc...

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA) IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING THROUGH CLIENT PARTNERSHIPS

EPA Science Inventory

The Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReV A) Program is an applied research program t,1at is focusing on using spatial information and model results to support environmental decision-making at regional- down to local-scales. Re VA has developed analysis and assessment methods to...

Assessing local capacity to expand rural breast cancer screening and patient navigation: An iterative mixed-method tool.

PubMed

Inrig, Stephen J; Higashi, Robin T; Tiro, Jasmin A; Argenbright, Keith E; Lee, Simon J Craddock

2017-04-01

Despite federal funding for breast cancer screening, fragmented infrastructure and limited organizational capacity hinder access to the full continuum of breast cancer screening and clinical follow-up procedures among rural-residing women. We proposed a regional hub-and-spoke model, partnering with local providers to expand access across North Texas. We describe development and application of an iterative, mixed-method tool to assess county capacity to conduct community outreach and/or patient navigation in a partnership model. Our tool combined publicly-available quantitative data with qualitative assessments during site visits and semi-structured interviews. Application of our tool resulted in shifts in capacity designation in 10 of 17 county partners: 8 implemented local outreach with hub navigation; 9 relied on the hub for both outreach and navigation. Key factors influencing capacity: (1) formal linkages between partner organizations; (2) inter-organizational relationships; (3) existing clinical service protocols; (4) underserved populations. Qualitative data elucidate how our tool captured these capacity changes. Our capacity assessment tool enabled the hub to establish partnerships with county organizations by tailoring support to local capacity and needs. Absent a vertically integrated provider network for preventive services in these rural counties, our tool facilitated a virtually integrated regional network to extend access to breast cancer screening to underserved women. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, Kota Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, Narayanarao Samba; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Nichols, James D.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.

2011-01-01

1. Assessing spatial distributions of threatened large carnivores at landscape scales poses formidable challenges because of their rarity and elusiveness. As a consequence of logistical constraints, investigators typically rely on sign surveys. Most survey methods, however, do not explicitly address the central problem of imperfect detections of animal signs in the field, leading to underestimates of true habitat occupancy and distribution. 2. We assessed habitat occupancy for a tiger Panthera tigris metapopulation across a c. 38 000-km2 landscape in India, employing a spatially replicated survey to explicitly address imperfect detections. Ecological predictions about tiger presence were confronted with sign detection data generated from occupancy sampling of 205 sites, each of 188 km2. 3. A recent occupancy model that considers Markovian dependency among sign detections on spatial replicates performed better than the standard occupancy model (ΔAIC = 184·9). A formulation of this model that fitted the data best showed that density of ungulate prey and levels of human disturbance were key determinants of local tiger presence. Model averaging resulted in a replicate-level detection probability [inline image] = 0·17 (0·17) for signs and a tiger habitat occupancy estimate of [inline image] = 0·665 (0·0857) or 14 076 (1814) km2 of potential habitat of 21 167 km2. In contrast, a traditional presence-versus-absence approach underestimated occupancy by 47%. Maps of probabilities of local site occupancy clearly identified tiger source populations at higher densities and matched observed tiger density variations, suggesting their potential utility for population assessments at landscape scales. 4. Synthesis and applications. Landscape-scale sign surveys can efficiently assess large carnivore spatial distributions and elucidate the factors governing their local presence, provided ecological and observation processes are both explicitly modelled. Occupancy sampling using spatial replicates can be used to reliably and efficiently identify tiger population sources and help monitor metapopulations. Our results reinforce earlier findings that prey depletion and human disturbance are key drivers of local tiger extinctions and tigers can persist even in human-dominated landscapes through effective protection of source populations. Our approach facilitates efficient targeting of tiger conservation interventions and, more generally, provides a basis for the reliable integration of large carnivore monitoring data between local and landscape scales.

Models, Measurements, and Local Decisions: Assessing and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation includes a combination of modeling and measurement results to characterize near-source air quality in Newark, New Jersey with consideration of how this information could be used to inform decision making to reduce risk of health impacts. Decisions could include either exposure or emissions reduction, and a host of stakeholders, including residents, academics, NGOs, local and federal agencies. This presentation includes results from the C-PORT modeling system, and from a citizen science project from the local area. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Development of a microbial contamination susceptibility model for private domestic groundwater sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hynds, Paul D.; Misstear, Bruce D.; Gill, Laurence W.

2012-12-01

Groundwater quality analyses were carried out on samples from 262 private sources in the Republic of Ireland during the period from April 2008 to November 2010, with microbial quality assessed by thermotolerant coliform (TTC) presence. Assessment of potential microbial contamination risk factors was undertaken at all sources, and local meteorological data were also acquired. Overall, 28.9% of wells tested positive for TTC, with risk analysis indicating that source type (i.e., borehole or hand-dug well), local bedrock type, local subsoil type, groundwater vulnerability, septic tank setback distance, and 48 h antecedent precipitation were all significantly associated with TTC presence (p < 0.05). A number of source-specific design parameters were also significantly associated with bacterial presence. Hierarchical logistic regression with stepwise parameter entry was used to develop a private well susceptibility model, with the final model exhibiting a mean predictive accuracy of >80% (TTC present or absent) when compared to an independent validation data set. Model hierarchies of primary significance are source design (20%), septic tank location (11%), hydrogeological setting (10%), and antecedent 120 h precipitation (2%). Sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of contamination is highly sensitive to septic tank setback distance, with probability increasing linearly with decreases in setback distance. Likewise, contamination probability was shown to increase with increasing antecedent precipitation. Results show that while groundwater vulnerability category is a useful indicator of aquifer susceptibility to contamination, its suitability with regard to source contamination is less clear. The final model illustrates that both localized (well-specific) and generalized (aquifer-specific) contamination mechanisms are involved in contamination events, with localized bypass mechanisms dominant. The susceptibility model developed here could be employed in the appropriate location, design, construction, and operation of private groundwater wells, thereby decreasing the contamination risk, and hence health risk, associated with these sources.

Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

2018-05-01

Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus offering a way for assessing and forewarning flood disaster risk.

Preschool Guidelines: Suburban Model (Ontario Local School District).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Dept. of Education, Columbus. Div. of Educational Services.

The Ontario Local Schools District, serving the village of Ontario and Springfield Township, offers this manual of operation which program staff developed to reflect the first year of implementation of a preschool program. Contents concern: (1) needs assessment; (2) program development; (3) facilities, equipment, and supplies; (4) staffing and…

Estimation of heart rate and heart rate variability from pulse oximeter recordings using localized model fitting.

PubMed

Wadehn, Federico; Carnal, David; Loeliger, Hans-Andrea

2015-08-01

Heart rate variability is one of the key parameters for assessing the health status of a subject's cardiovascular system. This paper presents a local model fitting algorithm used for finding single heart beats in photoplethysmogram recordings. The local fit of exponentially decaying cosines of frequencies within the physiological range is used to detect the presence of a heart beat. Using 42 subjects from the CapnoBase database, the average heart rate error was 0.16 BPM and the standard deviation of the absolute estimation error was 0.24 BPM.

Civil Tiltrotor Feasibility Study for the New York and Washington Terminal Areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stouffer, Virginia; Johnson, Jesse; Gribko, Joana; Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

NASA tasked LMI to assess the potential contributions of a yet-undeveloped Civil Tiltrotor aircraft (CTR) in improving capacity in the National Airspace System in all weather conditions. The CTRs studied have assumed operating parameters beyond current CTR capabilities. LMI analyzed CTRs three ways: in fast-time terminal area modeling simulations of New York and Washington to determine delay and throughput impacts; in the Integrated Noise Model, to determine local environmental impact; and with an economic model, to determine the price viability of a CTR. The fast-time models encompassed a 250 nmi range and included traffic interactions from local airports. Both the fast-time simulation and the noise model assessed impacts from traffic levels projected for 1999, 2007, and 2017. Results: CTRs can reduce terminal area delays due to concrete congestion in all time frames. The maximum effect, the ratio of CTRs to jets and turboprop aircraft at a subject airport should be optimized. The economic model considered US traffic only and forecasted CTR sales beginning in 2010.

Assessment of the Subgrid-Scale Models at Low and High Reynolds Numbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horiuti, K.

1996-01-01

Accurate SGS models must be capable of correctly representing the energy transfer between GS and SGS. Recent direct assessment of the energy transfer carried out using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data for wall-bounded flows revealed that the energy exchange is not unidirectional. Although GS kinetic energy is transferred to the SGS (forward scatter (F-scatter) on average, SGS energy is also transferred to the GS. The latter energy exchange (backward scatter (B-scatter) is very significant, i.e., the local energy exchange can be backward nearly as often as forward and the local rate of B-scatter is considerably higher than the net rate of energy dissipation.

Comparison of perceived and modelled geographical access to accident and emergency departments: a cross-sectional analysis from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study.

PubMed

Fone, David L; Christie, Stephen; Lester, Nathan

2006-04-13

Assessment of the spatial accessibility of hospital accident and emergency departments as perceived by local residents has not previously been investigated. Perceived accessibility may affect where, when, and whether potential patients attend for treatment. Using data on 11,853 respondents to a population survey in Caerphilly county borough, Wales, UK, we present an analysis comparing the accessibility of accident and emergency departments as reported by local residents and drive-time to the nearest accident and emergency department modelled using a geographical information system (GIS). Median drive-times were significantly shorter in the lowest perceived access category and longer in the best perceived access category (p < 0.001). The perceived access and GIS modelled drive-time variables were positively correlated (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r = 0.38, p < 0.01). The strongest correlation was found for respondents living in areas in which nearly all households had a car or van (r = 0.47, p < 0.01). Correlations were stronger among respondents reporting good access to public transport and among those reporting a recent accident and emergency attendance for injury treatment compared to other respondents. Correlation coefficients did not vary substantially by levels of household income. Drive-time, road distance and straight-line distance were highly inter-correlated and substituting road distance or straight-line distance as the GIS modelled spatial accessibility measure only marginally decreased the magnitude of the correlations between perceived and GIS modelled access. This study provides evidence that the accessibility of hospital-based health care services as perceived by local residents is related to measures of spatial accessibility modelled using GIS. For studies that aim to model geographical separation in a way that correlates well with the perception of local residents, there may be minimal advantage in using sophisticated measures. Straight-line distance, which can be calculated without GIS, may be as good as GIS-modelled drive-time or distance for this purpose. These findings will be of importance to health policy makers and local planners who seek to obtain local information on access to services through focussed assessments of residents' concerns over accessibility and GIS modelling.

Assessing the Risk of International Spread of Yellow Fever Virus: A Mathematical Analysis of an Urban Outbreak in Asunción, 2008

PubMed Central

Johansson, Michael A.; Arana-Vizcarrondo, Neysarí; Biggerstaff, Brad J.; Gallagher, Nancy; Marano, Nina; Staples, J. Erin

2012-01-01

Yellow fever virus (YFV), a mosquito-borne virus endemic to tropical Africa and South America, is capable of causing large urban outbreaks of human disease. With the ease of international travel, urban outbreaks could lead to the rapid spread and subsequent transmission of YFV in distant locations. We designed a stochastic metapopulation model with spatiotemporally explicit transmissibility scenarios to simulate the global spread of YFV from a single urban outbreak by infected airline travelers. In simulations of a 2008 outbreak in Asunción, Paraguay, local outbreaks occurred in 12.8% of simulations and international spread in 2.0%. Using simple probabilistic models, we found that local incidence, travel rates, and basic transmission parameters are sufficient to assess the probability of introduction and autochthonous transmission events. These models could be used to assess the risk of YFV spread during an urban outbreak and identify locations at risk for YFV introduction and subsequent autochthonous transmission. PMID:22302873

Assessing the risk of international spread of yellow fever virus: a mathematical analysis of an urban outbreak in Asuncion, 2008.

PubMed

Johansson, Michael A; Arana-Vizcarrondo, Neysarí; Biggerstaff, Brad J; Gallagher, Nancy; Marano, Nina; Staples, J Erin

2012-02-01

Yellow fever virus (YFV), a mosquito-borne virus endemic to tropical Africa and South America, is capable of causing large urban outbreaks of human disease. With the ease of international travel, urban outbreaks could lead to the rapid spread and subsequent transmission of YFV in distant locations. We designed a stochastic metapopulation model with spatiotemporally explicit transmissibility scenarios to simulate the global spread of YFV from a single urban outbreak by infected airline travelers. In simulations of a 2008 outbreak in Asunción, Paraguay, local outbreaks occurred in 12.8% of simulations and international spread in 2.0%. Using simple probabilistic models, we found that local incidence, travel rates, and basic transmission parameters are sufficient to assess the probability of introduction and autochthonous transmission events. These models could be used to assess the risk of YFV spread during an urban outbreak and identify locations at risk for YFV introduction and subsequent autochthonous transmission.

Error assessment of local tie vectors in space geodesy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falkenberg, Jana; Heinkelmann, Robert; Schuh, Harald

2014-05-01

For the computation of the ITRF, the data of the geometric space-geodetic techniques on co-location sites are combined. The combination increases the redundancy and offers the possibility to utilize the strengths of each technique while mitigating their weaknesses. To enable the combination of co-located techniques each technique needs to have a well-defined geometric reference point. The linking of the geometric reference points enables the combination of the technique-specific coordinate to a multi-technique site coordinate. The vectors between these reference points are called "local ties". The realization of local ties is usually reached by local surveys of the distances and or angles between the reference points. Identified temporal variations of the reference points are considered in the local tie determination only indirectly by assuming a mean position. Finally, the local ties measured in the local surveying network are to be transformed into the ITRF, the global geocentric equatorial coordinate system of the space-geodetic techniques. The current IERS procedure for the combination of the space-geodetic techniques includes the local tie vectors with an error floor of three millimeters plus a distance dependent component. This error floor, however, significantly underestimates the real accuracy of local tie determination. To fullfill the GGOS goals of 1 mm position and 0.1 mm/yr velocity accuracy, an accuracy of the local tie will be mandatory at the sub-mm level, which is currently not achievable. To assess the local tie effects on ITRF computations, investigations of the error sources will be done to realistically assess and consider them. Hence, a reasonable estimate of all the included errors of the various local ties is needed. An appropriate estimate could also improve the separation of local tie error and technique-specific error contributions to uncertainties and thus access the accuracy of space-geodetic techniques. Our investigations concern the simulation of the error contribution of each component of the local tie definition and determination. A closer look into the models of reference point definition, of accessibility, of measurement, and of transformation is necessary to properly model the error of the local tie. The effect of temporal variations on the local ties will be studied as well. The transformation of the local survey into the ITRF can be assumed to be the largest error contributor, in particular the orientation of the local surveying network to the ITRF.

Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

Treesearch

Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

2017-01-01

We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

Low resolution brain electromagnetic tomography in a realistic geometry head model: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Lei; Lai, Yuan; He, Bin

2005-01-01

It is of importance to localize neural sources from scalp recorded EEG. Low resolution brain electromagnetic tomography (LORETA) has received considerable attention for localizing brain electrical sources. However, most such efforts have used spherical head models in representing the head volume conductor. Investigation of the performance of LORETA in a realistic geometry head model, as compared with the spherical model, will provide useful information guiding interpretation of data obtained by using the spherical head model. The performance of LORETA was evaluated by means of computer simulations. The boundary element method was used to solve the forward problem. A three-shell realistic geometry (RG) head model was constructed from MRI scans of a human subject. Dipole source configurations of a single dipole located at different regions of the brain with varying depth were used to assess the performance of LORETA in different regions of the brain. A three-sphere head model was also used to approximate the RG head model, and similar simulations performed, and results compared with the RG-LORETA with reference to the locations of the simulated sources. Multi-source localizations were discussed and examples given in the RG head model. Localization errors employing the spherical LORETA, with reference to the source locations within the realistic geometry head, were about 20-30 mm, for four brain regions evaluated: frontal, parietal, temporal and occipital regions. Localization errors employing the RG head model were about 10 mm over the same four brain regions. The present simulation results suggest that the use of the RG head model reduces the localization error of LORETA, and that the RG head model based LORETA is desirable if high localization accuracy is needed.

Integrated methodology for assessing the HCH groundwater pollution at the multi-source contaminated mega-site Bitterfeld/Wolfen.

PubMed

Wycisk, Peter; Stollberg, Reiner; Neumann, Christian; Gossel, Wolfgang; Weiss, Holger; Weber, Roland

2013-04-01

A large-scale groundwater contamination characterises the Pleistocene groundwater system of the former industrial and abandoned mining region Bitterfeld/Wolfen, Eastern Germany. For more than a century, local chemical production and extensive lignite mining caused a complex contaminant release from local production areas and related dump sites. Today, organic pollutants (mainly organochlorines) are present in all compartments of the environment at high concentration levels. An integrated methodology for characterising the current situation of pollution as well as the future fate development of hazardous substances is highly required to decide on further management and remediation strategies. Data analyses have been performed on regional groundwater monitoring data from about 10 years, containing approximately 3,500 samples, and up to 180 individual organic parameters from almost 250 observation wells. Run-off measurements as well as water samples were taken biweekly from local creeks during a period of 18 months. A kriging interpolation procedure was applied on groundwater analytics to generate continuous distribution patterns of the nodal contaminant samples. High-resolution geological 3-D modelling serves as a database for a regional 3-D groundwater flow model. Simulation results support the future fate assessment of contaminants. A first conceptual model of the contamination has been developed to characterise the contamination in regional surface waters and groundwater. A reliable explanation of the variant hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) occurrence within the two local aquifer systems has been derived from the regionalised distribution patterns. Simulation results from groundwater flow modelling provide a better understanding of the future pollutant migration paths and support the overall site characterisation. The presented case study indicates that an integrated assessment of large-scale groundwater contaminations often needs more data than only from local groundwater monitoring. The developed methodology is appropriate to assess POP-contaminated mega-sites including, e.g. HCH deposits. Although HCH isomers are relevant groundwater pollutants at this site, further organochlorine pollutants are present at considerably higher levels. The study demonstrates that an effective evaluation of the current situation of contamination as well as of the related future fate development requires detailed information of the entire observed system.

Processfolio: Uniting Academic Literacies and Critical Emancipatory Action Research for Practitioner-Led Inquiry into EAP Writing Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearson, Jayne

2017-01-01

This article reports on the design and implementation of an alternative form of writing assessment in a UK English for Academic Purposes (EAP) pre-sessional course. The assessment, termed processfolio, was a response to research inquiry into how writing assessment in a local context negated student agency and inculcated disempowering models of…

Investment Justification of Robotic Technology in Aerospace Manufacturing. User’s Manual

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-01

assessing the economic attractiveness of investments in robotics and/or flexible manufacturing systems (FMS). It models the cash flows...relative. 5. RIDM assesses the inherent economic attractiveness of robotic/FMS implementation. The model is based on real economic events and not...provided for an optional analysis of state and local tax impacts, to be custom designed by the user. (2) Computation of Depreciation

A Standardized Generalized Dimensionality Discrepancy Measure and a Standardized Model-Based Covariance for Dimensionality Assessment for Multidimensional Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy; Xu, Yuning; Yel, Nedim; Svetina, Dubravka

2015-01-01

The standardized generalized dimensionality discrepancy measure and the standardized model-based covariance are introduced as tools to critique dimensionality assumptions in multidimensional item response models. These tools are grounded in a covariance theory perspective and associated connections between dimensionality and local independence.…

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2007-01-01

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

2013-04-01

From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically relevant variables such as streamflow and groundwater recharge. Fundamental limitations in both the understanding of hydrological processes in mountain regions (e.g., glacier melt, wetland attenuation, groundwater flows) and in data availability introduce large uncertainties. Lastly, assessing access to water resources is a major challenge. Topographical gradients and barriers, as well as strong spatiotemporal variations in hydrological processes, makes it particularly difficult to assess which parts of the mountain population is most vulnerable to future perturbations of the water cycle.

Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Eager, Eric A.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2015-01-01

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of extirpation for a local population may rapidly increase with only minimal increases in wind mortality. Conservation biologists and wildlife managers may need to consider this mortality pattern when issuing take permits and developing monitoring protocols for wind facilities. We also describe how our branching process models may be generalized across a wider range of species for a larger assessment project and then describe how our methods may be applied to other stressors in addition to wind.

Trabecular bone analysis in CT and X-ray images of the proximal femur for the assessment of local bone quality.

PubMed

Fritscher, Karl; Grunerbl, Agnes; Hanni, Markus; Suhm, Norbert; Hengg, Clemens; Schubert, Rainer

2009-10-01

Currently, conventional X-ray and CT images as well as invasive methods performed during the surgical intervention are used to judge the local quality of a fractured proximal femur. However, these approaches are either dependent on the surgeon's experience or cannot assist diagnostic and planning tasks preoperatively. Therefore, in this work a method for the individual analysis of local bone quality in the proximal femur based on model-based analysis of CT- and X-ray images of femur specimen will be proposed. A combined representation of shape and spatial intensity distribution of an object and different statistical approaches for dimensionality reduction are used to create a statistical appearance model in order to assess the local bone quality in CT and X-ray images. The developed algorithms are tested and evaluated on 28 femur specimen. It will be shown that the tools and algorithms presented herein are highly adequate to automatically and objectively predict bone mineral density values as well as a biomechanical parameter of the bone that can be measured intraoperatively.

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com; Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com; Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasingmore » populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.« less

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III; Hoeth, Brian

2009-01-01

This abstract describes work that will be done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting "wind cycling" cases at Edwards Air Force Base, CA (EAFB), in which the wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and determine which configuration will best predict surface wind speed and direction at EAFB.

Community Level Impact Assessment--Extension Applications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Mike D.; Doeksen, Gerald A.

Using the Oklahoma State University (OSU) computerized community simulation model, extension professionals can provide local decision makers with information derived from an impact model that is dynamic, community specific, and easy to adapt to different communities. The four main sections of the OSU model are an economic account, a capital…

Influence of climate on landscape characteristics in safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes.

PubMed

Becker, J K; Lindborg, T; Thorne, M C

2014-12-01

In safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes, large spatial and temporal scales have to be considered when developing an approach to risk calculations. A wide range of different types of information may be required. Local to the site of interest, temperature and precipitation data may be used to determine the erosional regime (which may also be conditioned by the vegetation characteristics adopted, based both on climatic and other considerations). However, geomorphological changes may be governed by regional rather than local considerations, e.g. alteration of river base levels, river capture and drainage network reorganisation, or the progression of an ice sheet or valley glacier across the site. The regional climate is in turn governed by the global climate. In this work, a commentary is presented on the types of climate models that can be used to develop projections of climate change for use in post-closure radiological impact assessments of geological repositories for radioactive wastes. These models include both Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity. The relevant outputs available from these models are identified and consideration is given to how these outputs may be used to inform projections of landscape development. Issues of spatial and temporal downscaling of climate model outputs to meet the requirements of local-scale landscape development modelling are also addressed. An example is given of how climate change and landscape development influence the radiological impact of radionuclides potentially released from the deep geological disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel that SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company) proposes to construct at Forsmark, Sweden. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Travel determinants and multi-scale transferability of national activity patterns to local populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henson, Kriste M; Gou; ias, Konstadinos G

The ability to transfer national travel patterns to a local population is of interest when attempting to model megaregions or areas that exceed metropolitan planning organization (MPO) boundaries. At the core of this research are questions about the connection between travel behavior and land use, urban form, and accessibility. As a part of this process, a group of land use variables have been identified to define activity and travel patterns for individuals and households. The 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) participants are divided into categories comprised of a set of latent cluster models representing persons, travel, and land use.more » These are compared to two sets of cluster models constructed for two local travel surveys. Comparison of means statistical tests are used to assess differences among sociodemographic groups residing in localities with similar land uses. The results show that the NHTS and the local surveys share mean population activity and travel characteristics. However, these similarities mask behavioral heterogeneity that are shown when distributions of activity and travel behavior are examined. Therefore, data from a national household travel survey cannot be used to model local population travel characteristics if the goal to model the actual distributions and not mean travel behavior characteristics.« less

Lipid emulsion improves survival in animal models of local anesthetic toxicity: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fettiplace, Michael R; McCabe, Daniel J

2017-08-01

The Lipid Emulsion Therapy workgroup, organized by the American Academy of Clinical Toxicology, recently conducted a systematic review, which subjectively evaluated lipid emulsion as a treatment for local anesthetic toxicity. We re-extracted data and conducted a meta-analysis of survival in animal models. We extracted survival data from 26 publications and conducted a random-effect meta-analysis based on odds ratio weighted by inverse variance. We assessed the benefit of lipid emulsion as an independent variable in resuscitative models (16 studies). We measured Cochran's Q for heterogeneity and I 2 to determine variance contributed by heterogeneity. Finally, we conducted a funnel plot analysis and Egger's test to assess for publication bias in studies. Lipid emulsion reduced the odds of death in resuscitative models (OR =0.24; 95%CI: 0.1-0.56, p = .0012). Heterogeneity analysis indicated a homogenous distribution. Funnel plot analysis did not indicate publication bias in experimental models. Meta-analysis of animal data supports the use of lipid emulsion (in combination with other resuscitative measures) for the treatment of local anesthetic toxicity, specifically from bupivacaine. Our conclusion differed from the original review. Analysis of outliers reinforced the need for good life support measures (securement of airway and chest compressions) along with prompt treatment with lipid.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

An assessment on convective and radiative heat transfer modelling in tubular solid oxide fuel cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez, D.; Muñoz, A.; Sánchez, T.

Four models of convective and radiative heat transfer inside tubular solid oxide fuel cells are presented in this paper, all of them applicable to multidimensional simulations. The work is aimed at assessing if it is necessary to use a very detailed and complicated model to simulate heat transfer inside this kind of device and, for those cases when simple models can be used, the errors are estimated and compared to those of the more complex models. For the convective heat transfer, two models are presented. One of them accounts for the variation of film coefficient as a function of local temperature and composition. This model gives a local value for the heat transfer coefficients and establishes the thermal entry length. The second model employs an average value of the transfer coefficient, which is applied to the whole length of the duct being studied. It is concluded that, unless there is a need to calculate local temperatures, a simple model can be used to evaluate the global performance of the cell with satisfactory accuracy. For the radiation heat transfer, two models are presented again. One of them considers radial radiation exclusively and, thus, radiative exchange between adjacent cells is neglected. On the other hand, the second model accounts for radiation in all directions but increases substantially the complexity of the problem. For this case, it is concluded that deviations between both models are higher than for convection. Actually, using a simple model can lead to a not negligible underestimation of the temperature of the cell.

Application of the SPARROW model to assess surface-water nutrient conditions and sources in the United States Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wise, Daniel R.; Johnson, Henry M.

2013-01-01

The watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes) was used to estimate mean annual surface-water nutrient conditions (total nitrogen and total phosphorus) and to identify important nutrient sources in catchments of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States for 2002. Model-estimated nutrient yields were generally higher in catchments on the wetter, western side of the Cascade Range than in catchments on the drier, eastern side. The largest source of locally generated total nitrogen stream load in most catchments was runoff from forestland, whereas the largest source of locally generated total phosphorus stream load in most catchments was either geologic material or livestock manure (primarily from grazing livestock). However, the highest total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields were predicted in the relatively small number of catchments where urban sources were the largest contributor to local stream load. Two examples are presented that show how SPARROW results can be applied to large rivers—the relative contribution of different nutrient sources to the total nitrogen load in the Willamette River and the total phosphorus load in the Snake River. The results from this study provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface-water nutrient conditions and should be useful to researchers and water-quality managers performing local nutrient assessments.

Full-range public health leadership, part 1: quantitative analysis.

PubMed

Carlton, Erik L; Holsinger, James W; Riddell, Martha; Bush, Heather

2015-01-01

Workforce and leadership development are central to the future of public health. However, public health has been slow to translate and apply leadership models from other professions and to incorporate local perspectives in understanding public health leadership. This study utilized the full-range leadership model in order to examine public health leadership. Specifically, it sought to measure leadership styles among local health department directors and to understand the context of leadership in local health departments. Leadership styles among local health department directors (n = 13) were examined using survey methodology. Quantitative analysis methods included descriptive statistics, boxplots, and Pearson bivariate correlations using SPSS v18.0. Self-reported leadership styles were highly correlated to leadership outcomes at the organizational level. However, they were not related to county health rankings. Results suggest the preeminence of leader behaviors and providing individual consideration to staff as compared to idealized attributes of leaders, intellectual stimulation, or inspirational motivation. Holistic leadership assessment instruments such as the multifactor leadership questionnaire can be useful in assessing public health leaders' approaches and outcomes. Comprehensive, 360-degree reviews may be especially helpful. Further research is needed to examine the effectiveness of public health leadership development models, as well as the extent that public health leadership impacts public health outcomes.

Assessment of local models and tools for analyzing smart-growth strategies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-07-01

There is a growing interest in California in smart-growth land- use and transportation : strategies designed to provide mobility options and reduce demand on automobile-oriented facilities. This study focuses on models and tools available for u...

LCS-TA to identify similar fragments in RNA 3D structures.

PubMed

Wiedemann, Jakub; Zok, Tomasz; Milostan, Maciej; Szachniuk, Marta

2017-10-23

In modern structural bioinformatics, comparison of molecular structures aimed to identify and assess similarities and differences between them is one of the most commonly performed procedures. It gives the basis for evaluation of in silico predicted models. It constitutes the preliminary step in searching for structural motifs. In particular, it supports tracing the molecular evolution. Faced with an ever-increasing amount of available structural data, researchers need a range of methods enabling comparative analysis of the structures from either global or local perspective. Herein, we present a new, superposition-independent method which processes pairs of RNA 3D structures to identify their local similarities. The similarity is considered in the context of structure bending and bonds' rotation which are described by torsion angles. In the analyzed RNA structures, the method finds the longest continuous segments that show similar torsion within a user-defined threshold. The length of the segment is provided as local similarity measure. The method has been implemented as LCS-TA algorithm (Longest Continuous Segments in Torsion Angle space) and is incorporated into our MCQ4Structures application, freely available for download from http://www.cs.put.poznan.pl/tzok/mcq/ . The presented approach ties torsion-angle-based method of structure analysis with the idea of local similarity identification by handling continuous 3D structure segments. The first method, implemented in MCQ4Structures, has been successfully utilized in RNA-Puzzles initiative. The second one, originally applied in Euclidean space, is a component of LGA (Local-Global Alignment) algorithm commonly used in assessing protein models submitted to CASP. This unique combination of concepts implemented in LCS-TA provides a new perspective on structure quality assessment in local and quantitative aspect. A series of computational experiments show the first results of applying our method to comparison of RNA 3D models. LCS-TA can be used for identifying strengths and weaknesses in the prediction of RNA tertiary structures.

Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources

EPA Science Inventory

Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) is not a model per se, but is a multipurpose environmental decision support system for use by regional, state, and local agencies in performing watershed- and water-quality-based studies. BASI...

A Biologically Constrained, Mathematical Model of Cortical Wave Propagation Preceding Seizure Termination

PubMed Central

González-Ramírez, Laura R.; Ahmed, Omar J.; Cash, Sydney S.; Wayne, C. Eugene; Kramer, Mark A.

2015-01-01

Epilepsy—the condition of recurrent, unprovoked seizures—manifests in brain voltage activity with characteristic spatiotemporal patterns. These patterns include stereotyped semi-rhythmic activity produced by aggregate neuronal populations, and organized spatiotemporal phenomena, including waves. To assess these spatiotemporal patterns, we develop a mathematical model consistent with the observed neuronal population activity and determine analytically the parameter configurations that support traveling wave solutions. We then utilize high-density local field potential data recorded in vivo from human cortex preceding seizure termination from three patients to constrain the model parameters, and propose basic mechanisms that contribute to the observed traveling waves. We conclude that a relatively simple and abstract mathematical model consisting of localized interactions between excitatory cells with slow adaptation captures the quantitative features of wave propagation observed in the human local field potential preceding seizure termination. PMID:25689136

Estimation of Local Bone Loads for the Volume of Interest.

PubMed

Kim, Jung Jin; Kim, Youkyung; Jang, In Gwun

2016-07-01

Computational bone remodeling simulations have recently received significant attention with the aid of state-of-the-art high-resolution imaging modalities. They have been performed using localized finite element (FE) models rather than full FE models due to the excessive computational costs of full FE models. However, these localized bone remodeling simulations remain to be investigated in more depth. In particular, applying simplified loading conditions (e.g., uniform and unidirectional loads) to localized FE models have a severe limitation in a reliable subject-specific assessment. In order to effectively determine the physiological local bone loads for the volume of interest (VOI), this paper proposes a novel method of estimating the local loads when the global musculoskeletal loads are given. The proposed method is verified for the three VOI in a proximal femur in terms of force equilibrium, displacement field, and strain energy density (SED) distribution. The effect of the global load deviation on the local load estimation is also investigated by perturbing a hip joint contact force (HCF) in the femoral head. Deviation in force magnitude exhibits the greatest absolute changes in a SED distribution due to its own greatest deviation, whereas angular deviation perpendicular to a HCF provides the greatest relative change. With further in vivo force measurements and high-resolution clinical imaging modalities, the proposed method will contribute to the development of reliable patient-specific localized FE models, which can provide enhanced computational efficiency for iterative computing processes such as bone remodeling simulations.

Case Study: Sensitivity Analysis of the Barataria Basin Barrier Shoreline Wetland Value Assessment Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

wetlands in providing resting, foraging , breeding, and nursery habitat to a diverse assemblage of fish and wildlife species in coastal Louisiana (EWG...services, including fish and wildlife production, storm damage reduction, and recreation. Federal, state, and local partners have jointly pursued large...habitat units” (HU) provided by a given alternative. Whereas traditional HEP models focused on specific taxa, WVA assesses the fish and wildlife community

Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

2016-04-01

The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) [1] led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this study [2] we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. We do not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but we aim to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for ungauged catchments. [1] Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S., Gupta, V., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., et al. (2003). IAHS decade on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 857-880. doi: 10.1623/hysj.48.6.857.51421 [2] van Emmerik, T., Mulder, G., Eilander, D., Piet, M. and Savenije, H. (2015). Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment. Front. Earth Sci. 3:62. doi: 10.3389/feart.2015.00062

Assessing the potential impact and uncertainty of climate, land use change and demographic trends on malaria transmission in Africa by 2050.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Caporaso, Luca; Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe

2014-05-01

Previous analyses of data has shown that in addition to variability and longer term trends in climate variables, both land use change (LUC) and population mobility and urbanisation trends can impact malaria transmission intensities and socio-economic burden. With the new regional VECTRI dynamical malaria model it is now possible to examine these in an integrated modelling framework. Using 5 global climate models which were bias corrected using the WATCH data for the recent ISIMIP project, the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), population projections disaggregated from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Land use change from the HYDE model output used in the CMIP5 process, we construct a multi-member ensemble of malaria transmission intensity projections for 2050. The ensemble integrations indicate that climate has the leading impact on malaria changes, but that population growth and urbanisation can offset the effect of climate locally. LUC impacts can also be significant on the local scale but their assessment is highly uncertain and only indicative in this study. It is argued that the study should be repeated with a range of malaria models or VECTRI configurations in order to assess the additional uncertainty due to the malaria model assumptions.

Automated antibody structure prediction using Accelrys tools: Results and best practices

PubMed Central

Fasnacht, Marc; Butenhof, Ken; Goupil-Lamy, Anne; Hernandez-Guzman, Francisco; Huang, Hongwei; Yan, Lisa

2014-01-01

We describe the methodology and results from our participation in the second Antibody Modeling Assessment experiment. During the experiment we predicted the structure of eleven unpublished antibody Fv fragments. Our prediction methods centered on template-based modeling; potential templates were selected from an antibody database based on their sequence similarity to the target in the framework regions. Depending on the quality of the templates, we constructed models of the antibody framework regions either using a single, chimeric or multiple template approach. The hypervariable loop regions in the initial models were rebuilt by grafting the corresponding regions from suitable templates onto the model. For the H3 loop region, we further refined models using ab initio methods. The final models were subjected to constrained energy minimization to resolve severe local structural problems. The analysis of the models submitted show that Accelrys tools allow for the construction of quite accurate models for the framework and the canonical CDR regions, with RMSDs to the X-ray structure on average below 1 Å for most of these regions. The results show that accurate prediction of the H3 hypervariable loops remains a challenge. Furthermore, model quality assessment of the submitted models show that the models are of quite high quality, with local geometry assessment scores similar to that of the target X-ray structures. Proteins 2014; 82:1583–1598. © 2014 The Authors. Proteins published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:24833271

Transferability of species distribution models for the detection of an invasive alien bryophyte using imaging spectroscopy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skowronek, Sandra; Van De Kerchove, Ruben; Rombouts, Bjorn; Aerts, Raf; Ewald, Michael; Warrie, Jens; Schiefer, Felix; Garzon-Lopez, Carol; Hattab, Tarek; Honnay, Olivier; Lenoir, Jonathan; Rocchini, Duccio; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Somers, Ben; Feilhauer, Hannes

2018-06-01

Remote sensing is a promising tool for detecting invasive alien plant species. Mapping and monitoring those species requires accurate detection. So far, most studies relied on models that are locally calibrated and validated against available field data. Consequently, detecting invasive alien species at new study areas requires the acquisition of additional field data which can be expensive and time-consuming. Model transfer might thus provide a viable alternative. Here, we mapped the distribution of the invasive alien bryophyte Campylopus introflexus to i) assess the feasibility of spatially transferring locally calibrated models for species detection between four different heathland areas in Germany and Belgium and ii) test the potential of combining calibration data from different sites in one species distribution model (SDM). In a first step, four different SDMs were locally calibrated and validated by combining field data and airborne imaging spectroscopy data with a spatial resolution ranging from 1.8 m to 4 m and a spectral resolution of about 10 nm (244 bands). A one-class classifier, Maxent, which is based on the comparison of probability densities, was used to generate all SDMs. In a second step, each model was transferred to the three other study areas and the performance of the models for predicting C. introflexus occurrences was assessed. Finally, models combining calibration data from three study areas were built and tested on the remaining fourth site. In this step, different combinations of Maxent modelling parameters were tested. For the local models, the area under the curve for a test dataset (test AUC) was between 0.57-0.78, while the test AUC for the single transfer models ranged between 0.45-0.89. For the combined models the test AUC was between 0.54-0.9. The success of transferring models calibrated in one site to another site highly depended on the respective study site; the combined models provided higher test AUC values than the locally calibrated models for three out of four study sites. Furthermore, we also demonstrated the importance of optimizing the Maxent modelling parameters. Overall, our results indicate the potential of a combined model to map C. introflexus without the need for new calibration data.

Reserves in load capacity assessment of existing bridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žitný, Jan; Ryjáček, Pavel

2017-09-01

High percentage of all railway bridges in the Czech Republic is made of structural steel. Majority of these bridges is designed according to historical codes and according to the deterioration, they have to be assessed if they satisfy the needs of modern railway traffic. The load capacity assessment of existing bridges according to Eurocodes is however often too conservative and especially, braking and acceleration forces cause huge problems to structural elements of the bridge superstructure. The aim of this paper is to review the different approaches for the determination of braking and acceleration forces. Both, current and historical theoretical models and in-situ measurements are considered. The research of several local European state norms superior to Eurocode for assessment of existing railway bridges shows the big diversity of used local approaches and the conservativeness of Eurocode. This paper should also work as an overview for designers dealing with load capacity assessment, revealing the reserves for existing bridges. Based on these different approaches, theoretical models and data obtained from the measurements, the method for determination of braking and acceleration forces on the basis of real traffic data should be proposed.

Probabilistic assessment of the impact of coal seam gas development on groundwater: Surat Basin, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Tao; Moore, Catherine; Raiber, Matthias

2018-05-01

Modelling cumulative impacts of basin-scale coal seam gas (CSG) extraction is challenging due to the long time frames and spatial extent over which impacts occur combined with the need to consider local-scale processes. The computational burden of such models limits the ability to undertake calibration and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. A framework is presented that integrates recently developed methods and tools to address the computational burdens of an assessment of drawdown impacts associated with rapid CSG development in the Surat Basin, Australia. The null space Monte Carlo method combined with singular value decomposition (SVD)-assisted regularisation was used to analyse the uncertainty of simulated drawdown impacts. The study also describes how the computational burden of assessing local-scale impacts was mitigated by adopting a novel combination of a nested modelling framework which incorporated a model emulator of drawdown in dual-phase flow conditions, and a methodology for representing local faulting. This combination provides a mechanism to support more reliable estimates of regional CSG-related drawdown predictions. The study indicates that uncertainties associated with boundary conditions are reduced significantly when expressing differences between scenarios. The results are analysed and distilled to enable the easy identification of areas where the simulated maximum drawdown impacts could exceed trigger points associated with legislative `make good' requirements; trigger points require that either an adjustment in the development scheme or other measures are implemented to remediate the impact. This report contributes to the currently small body of work that describes modelling and uncertainty analyses of CSG extraction impacts on groundwater.

A planning algorithm for quantifying decentralised water management opportunities in urban environments.

PubMed

Bach, Peter M; McCarthy, David T; Urich, Christian; Sitzenfrei, Robert; Kleidorfer, Manfred; Rauch, Wolfgang; Deletic, Ana

2013-01-01

With global change bringing about greater challenges for the resilient planning and management of urban water infrastructure, research has been invested in the development of a strategic planning tool, DAnCE4Water. The tool models how urban and societal changes impact the development of centralised and decentralised (distributed) water infrastructure. An algorithm for rigorous assessment of suitable decentralised stormwater management options in the model is presented and tested on a local Melbourne catchment. Following detailed spatial representation algorithms (defined by planning rules), the model assesses numerous stormwater options to meet water quality targets at a variety of spatial scales. A multi-criteria assessment algorithm is used to find top-ranking solutions (which meet a specific treatment performance for a user-defined percentage of catchment imperviousness). A toolbox of five stormwater technologies (infiltration systems, surface wetlands, bioretention systems, ponds and swales) is featured. Parameters that set the algorithm's flexibility to develop possible management options are assessed and evaluated. Results are expressed in terms of 'utilisation', which characterises the frequency of use of different technologies across the top-ranking options (bioretention being the most versatile). Initial results highlight the importance of selecting a suitable spatial resolution and providing the model with enough flexibility for coming up with different technology combinations. The generic nature of the model enables its application to other urban areas (e.g. different catchments, local municipal regions or entire cities).

Evaluation of the impact of SO₂ and NO₂ emissions on the ambient air-quality in the Çan-Bayramiç region of northwest Turkey during 2007-2008.

PubMed

Ozkurt, Nesimi; Sari, Deniz; Akalin, Nuray; Hilmioglu, Bilgin

2013-07-01

The characterization and assessment of air-quality in this region are essential steps for the implementation of the "Clean Air Action Plan" as this is set by the Turkish Regulation on Ambient Air-Quality Assessment and Management. This study area intends to shed a light on use of modeling tools as an alternative method for the assessment of local atmospheric pollution and the determination of the importance of local emissions. This modeling approach can be also used for the consistent geographic representation of air-quality concentration as well as for assessing the future air-quality condition after the implementation of emission reduction measures in a certain area. With this article we evaluate the impact of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide emissions on the ambient air-quality in the Çan-Bayramiç region of Turkey. The emission rates of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide were calculated by using the CALPUFF model. The concentration of these pollutants had also been monitored at ten air-quality locations during 2007-2008 in the research area. The measured data were also utilized for testing the model performance. Results showed that the air-quality in this important rural region of Turkey can be evaluated effectively by using the current numerical modeling system. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Tracer Transport Delays for Improved Quantification of Regional Pulmonary 18F-FDG Kinetics, Vascular Transit Times, and Perfusion

PubMed Central

Wellman, Tyler J.; Winkler, Tilo; Vidal Melo, Marcos F.

2015-01-01

18F-FDG-PET is increasingly used to assess pulmonary inflammatory cell activity. However, current models of pulmonary 18F-FDG kinetics do not account for delays in 18F-FDG transport between the plasma sampling site and the lungs. We developed a three-compartment model of 18F-FDG kinetics that includes a delay between the right heart and the local capillary blood pool, and used this model to estimate regional pulmonary perfusion. We acquired dynamic 18F-FDG scans in 12 mechanically ventilated sheep divided into control and lung injury groups (n=6 each). The model was fit to tracer kinetics in three isogravitational regions-of-interest to estimate regional lung transport delays and regional perfusion. 13NN bolus infusion scans were acquired during a period of apnea to measure regional perfusion using an established reference method. The delayed input function model improved description of 18F-FDG kinetics (lower Akaike Information Criterion) in 98% of studied regions. Local transport delays ranged from 2.0–13.6s, averaging 6.4±2.9s, and were highest in non-dependent regions. Estimates of regional perfusion derived from model parameters were highly correlated with perfusion measurements based on 13NN-PET (R2=0.92, p<0.001). By incorporating local vascular transports delays, this model of pulmonary 18F-FDG kinetics allows for simultaneous assessment of regional lung perfusion, transit times, and inflammation. PMID:25940652

Air Emissions Inventories

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This site provides access to emissions data, regulations and guidance, electronic system access, resources and tools to support trends analysis, regional, and local scale air quality modeling, regulatory impact assessments.

Regional Climate Change across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T. L.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2011-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. Preliminary results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0.

Effectiveness of international surgical program model to build local sustainability.

PubMed

Magee, William P; Raimondi, Haley M; Beers, Mark; Koech, Maryanne C

2012-01-01

Background. Humanitarian medical missions may be an effective way to temporarily overcome limitations and promote long-term solutions in the local health care system. Operation Smile, an international medical not-for-profit organization that provides surgery for patients with cleft lip and palate, not only provides surgery through short-term international missions but also focuses on developing local capacity. Methods. The history of Operation Smile was evaluated globally, and then on a local level in 3 countries: Colombia, Bolivia, and Ethiopia. Historical data was assessed by two-pronged success of (1) treating the surgical need presented by cleft patients and (2) advancing the local capacity to provide primary and ongoing care to patients. Results. The number of patients treated by Operation Smile has continually increased. Though it began by using only international teams to provide care, by 2012, this had shifted to 33% of patients being treated by international teams, while the other 67% received treatment from local models of care. The highest level of sustainability was achieved in Columbia, where two permanent centers have been established, followed by Bolivia and lastly Ethiopia. Conclusions. International missions have value because of the patients that receive surgery and the local sustainable models of care that they promote.

Assessing data assimilation and model boundary error strategies for high resolution ocean model downscaling in the Northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandvig Mariegaard, Jesper; Huiban, Méven Robin; Tornfeldt Sørensen, Jacob; Andersson, Henrik

2017-04-01

Determining the optimal domain size and associated position of open boundaries in local high-resolution downscaling ocean models is often difficult. As an important input data set for downscaling ocean modelling, the European Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) provides baroclinic initial and boundary conditions for local ocean models. Tidal dynamics is often neglected in CMEMS services at large scale but tides are generally crucial for coastal ocean dynamics. To address this need, tides can be superposed via Flather (1976) boundary conditions and the combined flow downscaled using unstructured mesh. The surge component is also only partially represented in selected CMEMS products and must be modelled inside the domain and modelled independently and superposed if the domain becomes too small to model the effect in the downscaling model. The tide and surge components can generally be improved by assimilating water level from tide gauge and altimetry data. An intrinsic part of the problem is to find the limitations of local scale data assimilation and the requirement for consistency between the larger scale ocean models and the local scale assimilation methodologies. This contribution investigates the impact of domain size and associated positions of open boundaries with and without data assimilation of water level. We have used the baroclinic ocean model, MIKE 3 FM, and its newly re-factored built-in data assimilation package. We consider boundary conditions of salinity, temperature, water level and depth varying currents from the Global CMEMS 1/4 degree resolution model from 2011, where in situ ADCP velocity data is available for validation. We apply data assimilation of in-situ tide gauge water levels and along track altimetry surface elevation data from selected satellites. The MIKE 3 FM data assimilation model which use the Ensemble Kalman filter have recently been parallelized with MPI allowing for much larger applications running on HPC. The success of the downscaling is to a large degree determined by the ability to realistically describe and dynamically model the errors on the open boundaries. Three different sizes of downscaling model domains in the Northern North Sea have been examined and two different strategies for modelling the uncertainties on the open Flather boundaries are investigated. The combined downscaling and local data assimilation skill is assessed and the impact on recommended domain size is compared to pure downscaling.

CFD Study of the Performance of an Operational Wind Farm and its Impact on the Local Climate: CFD sensitivity to forestry modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wylie, Scott; Watson, Simon

2013-04-01

Any past, current or projected future wind farm developments are highly dependent on localised climatic conditions. For example the mean wind speed, one of the main factors in assessing the economic feasibility of a wind farm, can vary significantly over length scales no greater than the size of a typical wind farm. Any additional heterogeneity at a potential site, such as forestry, can affect the wind resource further not accounting for the additional difficulty of installation. If a wind farm is sited in an environmentally sensitive area then the ability to predict the wind farm performance and possible impacts on the important localised climatic conditions are of increased importance. Siting of wind farms in environmentally sensitive areas is not uncommon, such as areas of peat-land as in this example. Areas of peat-land are important sinks for carbon in the atmosphere but their ability to sequester carbon is highly dependent on the local climatic conditions. An operational wind farm's impact on such an area was investigated using CFD. Validation of the model outputs were carried out using field measurements from three automatic weather stations (AWS) located throughout the site. The study focuses on validation of both wind speed and turbulence measurement, whilst also assessing the models ability to predict wind farm performance. The use of CFD to model the variation in wind speed over heterogeneous terrain, including wind turbines effects, is increasing in popularity. Encouraging results have increased confidence in the ability of CFD performance in complex terrain with features such as steep slopes and forests, which are not well modelled by the widely used linear models such as WAsP and MS-Micro. Using concurrent measurements from three stationary AWS across the wind farm will allow detailed validation of the model predicted flow characteristics, whilst aggregated power output information will allow an assessment of how accurate the model setup can predict wind farm performance. Given the dependence of the local climatic conditions influence on the peat-land's ability to sequester carbon, accurate predictions of the local wind and turbulence features will allow us to quantify any possible wind farm influences. This work was carried out using the commercially available Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) CFD package ANSYS CFX. Utilising the Windmodeller add-on in CFX, a series of simulations were carried out to assess wind flow interactions through and around the wind farm, incorporating features such as terrain, forestry and rotor wake interactions. Particular attention was paid to forestry effects, as the AWS are located close to the vicinity of forestry. Different Leaf Area Densities (LAD) were tested to assess how sensitive the models output was to this change.

State Systems Change Spotlight: Nevada. Transforming State Systems to Improve Outcomes for Children with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruedel, Kristin; Nelson, Gena; Bailey, Tessie; Pierce, Jennifer

2018-01-01

Data show that effective and ongoing communication and evaluation can have a positive impact on local and statewide systems change. Local and statewide systems change requires ongoing communication and evaluation. The Nevada Department of Education (NDE) used a communication protocol to support implementation of the Assess-Plan-Teach (APT) model.…

Determinants of Service Expansion in Local Communities: Organizational Needs or Needs of the Elderly?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sheldon, Ann Workman

Providing comprehensive services for the elderly in local communities presents planners and potential users with a complex set of problems. The development of new or expanded service to the elderly was examined within an ecologically informed resource dependency model to assess the effect on service expansion of organizational maintenance factors…

A Piecewise Local Partial Least Squares (PLS) Method for the Quantitative Analysis of Plutonium Nitrate Solutions

DOE PAGES

Lascola, Robert; O'Rourke, Patrick E.; Kyser, Edward A.

2017-10-05

Here, we have developed a piecewise local (PL) partial least squares (PLS) analysis method for total plutonium measurements by absorption spectroscopy in nitric acid-based nuclear material processing streams. Instead of using a single PLS model that covers all expected solution conditions, the method selects one of several local models based on an assessment of solution absorbance, acidity, and Pu oxidation state distribution. The local models match the global model for accuracy against the calibration set, but were observed in several instances to be more robust to variations associated with measurements in the process. The improvements are attributed to the relativemore » parsimony of the local models. Not all of the sources of spectral variation are uniformly present at each part of the calibration range. Thus, the global model is locally overfitting and susceptible to increased variance when presented with new samples. A second set of models quantifies the relative concentrations of Pu(III), (IV), and (VI). Standards containing a mixture of these species were not at equilibrium due to a disproportionation reaction. Therefore, a separate principal component analysis is used to estimate of the concentrations of the individual oxidation states in these standards in the absence of independent confirmatory analysis. The PL analysis approach is generalizable to other systems where the analysis of chemically complicated systems can be aided by rational division of the overall range of solution conditions into simpler sub-regions.« less

A Piecewise Local Partial Least Squares (PLS) Method for the Quantitative Analysis of Plutonium Nitrate Solutions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lascola, Robert; O'Rourke, Patrick E.; Kyser, Edward A.

Here, we have developed a piecewise local (PL) partial least squares (PLS) analysis method for total plutonium measurements by absorption spectroscopy in nitric acid-based nuclear material processing streams. Instead of using a single PLS model that covers all expected solution conditions, the method selects one of several local models based on an assessment of solution absorbance, acidity, and Pu oxidation state distribution. The local models match the global model for accuracy against the calibration set, but were observed in several instances to be more robust to variations associated with measurements in the process. The improvements are attributed to the relativemore » parsimony of the local models. Not all of the sources of spectral variation are uniformly present at each part of the calibration range. Thus, the global model is locally overfitting and susceptible to increased variance when presented with new samples. A second set of models quantifies the relative concentrations of Pu(III), (IV), and (VI). Standards containing a mixture of these species were not at equilibrium due to a disproportionation reaction. Therefore, a separate principal component analysis is used to estimate of the concentrations of the individual oxidation states in these standards in the absence of independent confirmatory analysis. The PL analysis approach is generalizable to other systems where the analysis of chemically complicated systems can be aided by rational division of the overall range of solution conditions into simpler sub-regions.« less

Assimilation of SMOS (and SMAP) Retrieved Soil Moisture into the Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan; Stano, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Goal: Accurate, high-resolution (approx.3 km) soil moisture in near-real time. Situational awareness (drought assessment, flood and fire threat). Local modeling applications (to improve sfc-PBL exchanges) Method: Assimilate satellite soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model. Combines high-resolution geophysical model data with latest satellite observations.

RESOLVING FINE SCALE IN AIR TOXICS MODELING AND THE IMPORTANCE OF ITS SUB-GRID VARIABILITY FOR EXPOSURE ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation explains the importance of the fine-scale features for air toxics exposure modeling. The paper presents a new approach to combine local-scale and regional model results for the National Air Toxic Assessment. The technique has been evaluated with a chemical tra...

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

2015-01-01

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

A GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) for air pollution assessment--a North American case study.

PubMed

Wang, Bao-Zhen; Chen, Zhi

2013-01-01

This article presents a GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) to predict the spatial concentration distributions of airborne pollutant on local and regional scales. In this method, an extended multi-box model combined with a multi-source and multi-grid Gaussian model are developed within the GIS framework to examine the contributions from both point- and area-source emissions. By using GIS, a large amount of data including emission sources, air quality monitoring, meteorological data, and spatial location information required for air quality modeling are brought into an integrated modeling environment. It helps more details of spatial variation in source distribution and meteorological condition to be quantitatively analyzed. The developed modeling approach has been examined to predict the spatial concentration distribution of four air pollutants (CO, NO(2), SO(2) and PM(2.5)) for the State of California. The modeling results are compared with the monitoring data. Good agreement is acquired which demonstrated that the developed modeling approach could deliver an effective air pollution assessment on both regional and local scales to support air pollution control and management planning.

Assessment of body mapping sportswear using a manikin operated in constant temperature mode and thermoregulatory model control mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Faming; Del Ferraro, Simona; Molinaro, Vincenzo; Morrissey, Matthew; Rossi, René

2014-09-01

Regional sweating patterns and body surface temperature differences exist between genders. Traditional sportswear made from one material and/or one fabric structure has a limited ability to provide athletes sufficient local wear comfort. Body mapping sportswear consists of one piece of multiple knit structure fabric or of different fabric pieces that may provide athletes better wear comfort. In this study, the `modular' body mapping sportswear was designed and subsequently assessed on a `Newton' type sweating manikin that operated in both constant temperature mode and thermophysiological model control mode. The performance of the modular body mapping sportswear kit and commercial products were also compared. The results demonstrated that such a modular body mapping sportswear kit can meet multiple wear/thermal comfort requirements in various environmental conditions. All body mapping clothing (BMC) presented limited global thermophysiological benefits for the wearers. Nevertheless, BMC showed evident improvements in adjusting local body heat exchanges and local thermal sensations.

Assessment of body mapping sportswear using a manikin operated in constant temperature mode and thermoregulatory model control mode.

PubMed

Wang, Faming; Del Ferraro, Simona; Molinaro, Vincenzo; Morrissey, Matthew; Rossi, René

2014-09-01

Regional sweating patterns and body surface temperature differences exist between genders. Traditional sportswear made from one material and/or one fabric structure has a limited ability to provide athletes sufficient local wear comfort. Body mapping sportswear consists of one piece of multiple knit structure fabric or of different fabric pieces that may provide athletes better wear comfort. In this study, the 'modular' body mapping sportswear was designed and subsequently assessed on a 'Newton' type sweating manikin that operated in both constant temperature mode and thermophysiological model control mode. The performance of the modular body mapping sportswear kit and commercial products were also compared. The results demonstrated that such a modular body mapping sportswear kit can meet multiple wear/thermal comfort requirements in various environmental conditions. All body mapping clothing (BMC) presented limited global thermophysiological benefits for the wearers. Nevertheless, BMC showed evident improvements in adjusting local body heat exchanges and local thermal sensations.

Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase.

PubMed

Bakker, J F; Paulides, M M; Neufeld, E; Christ, A; Kuster, N; van Rhoon, G C

2011-08-07

To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR(wb)) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (T(body, incr)) under 1 °C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR(10g)) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (T(incr, max)) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate T(incr, max) in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 °C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used T(incr, max) as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on T(incr, max) for specified durations of exposure.

ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION MODELING OF EMISSIONS FROM GROUND ZERO

EPA Science Inventory

Since September 11, 2001 the EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has applied meteorological measurements and modeling to support WTC recovery assessments. The local meteorology is observed to be a key factor in both the diurnal and day-to-day changes in the observ...

Assessment of Reference Height Models on Quality of Tandem-X dem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzaee, S.; Motagh, M.; Arefi, H.

2015-12-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of various Global Digital Elevation Models (GDEMs) in producing high-resolution topography model using TanDEM-X (TDX) Coregistered Single Look Slant Range Complex (CoSSC) images. We selected an image acquired on Jun 12th, 2012 over Doroud region in Lorestan, west of Iran and used 4 external digital elevation models in our processing including DLR/ASI X-SAR DEM (SRTM-X, 30m resolution), ASTER GDEM Version 2 (ASTER-GDEMV2, 30m resolution), NASA SRTM Version 4 (SRTM-V4, 90m resolution), and a local photogrammetry-based DEM prepared by National Cartographic Center (NCC DEM, 10m resolution) of Iran. InSAR procedure for DEM generation was repeated four times with each of the four external height references. The quality of each external DEM was initially assessed using ICESat filtered points. Then, the quality of, each TDX-based DEM was assessed using the more precise external DEM selected in the previous step. Results showed that both local (NCC) DEM and SRTM X-band performed the best (RMSE< 9m) for TDX-DEM generation. In contrast, ASTER GDEM v2 and SRTM C-band v4 showed poorer quality.

Modeling prescribed burning experiments and assessing the fire impacts on local to regional air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, L.; Baker, K. R.; Napelenok, S. L.; Elleman, R. A.; Urbanski, S. P.

2016-12-01

Biomass burning, including wildfires and prescribed burns, strongly impact the global carbon cycle and are of increasing concern due to the potential impacts on ambient air quality. This modelling study focuses on the evolution of carbonaceous compounds during a prescribed burning experiment and assesses the impacts of burning on local to regional air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is used to conduct 4 and 2 km grid resolution simulations of prescribed burning experiments in southeast Washington state and western Idaho state in summer 2013. The ground and airborne measurements from the field experiment are used to evaluate the model performance in capturing surface and aloft impacts from the burning events. Phase partitioning of organic compounds in the plume are studied as it is a crucial step towards understanding the fate of carbonaceous compounds. The sensitivities of ambient concentrations and deposition to emissions are conducted for organic carbon, elemental carbon and ozone to estimate the impacts of fire on air quality.

The Business Case for Automated Software Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menzies, Tim; Elrawas, Oussama; Hihn, Jairus M.; Feather, Martin S.; Madachy, Ray; Boehm, Barry

2007-01-01

Adoption of advanced automated SE (ASE) tools would be more favored if a business case could be made that these tools are more valuable than alternate methods. In theory, software prediction models can be used to make that case. In practice, this is complicated by the 'local tuning' problem. Normally. predictors for software effort and defects and threat use local data to tune their predictions. Such local tuning data is often unavailable. This paper shows that assessing the relative merits of different SE methods need not require precise local tunings. STAR 1 is a simulated annealer plus a Bayesian post-processor that explores the space of possible local tunings within software prediction models. STAR 1 ranks project decisions by their effects on effort and defects and threats. In experiments with NASA systems. STARI found one project where ASE were essential for minimizing effort/ defect/ threats; and another project were ASE tools were merely optional.

Three-dimensional localized coherent structures of surface turbulence: Model validation with experiments and further computations.

PubMed

Demekhin, E A; Kalaidin, E N; Kalliadasis, S; Vlaskin, S Yu

2010-09-01

We validate experimentally the Kapitsa-Shkadov model utilized in the theoretical studies by Demekhin [Phys. Fluids 19, 114103 (2007)10.1063/1.2793148; Phys. Fluids 19, 114104 (2007)]10.1063/1.2793149 of surface turbulence on a thin liquid film flowing down a vertical planar wall. For water at 15° , surface turbulence typically occurs at an inlet Reynolds number of ≃40 . Of particular interest is to assess experimentally the predictions of the model for three-dimensional nonlinear localized coherent structures, which represent elementary processes of surface turbulence. For this purpose we devise simple experiments to investigate the instabilities and transitions leading to such structures. Our experimental results are in good agreement with the theoretical predictions of the model. We also perform time-dependent computations for the formation of coherent structures and their interaction with localized structures of smaller amplitude on the surface of the film.

Real-time assessments of water quality: expanding nowcasting throughout the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2013-01-01

Nowcasts are systems that inform the public of current bacterial water-quality conditions at beaches on the basis of predictive models. During 2010–12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) worked with 23 local and State agencies to improve existing operational beach nowcast systems at 4 beaches and expand the use of predictive models in nowcasts at an additional 45 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. The predictive models were specific to each beach, and the best model for each beach was based on a unique combination of environmental and water-quality explanatory variables. The variables used most often in models to predict Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations or the probability of exceeding a State recreational water-quality standard included turbidity, day of the year, wave height, wind direction and speed, antecedent rainfall for various time periods, and change in lake level over 24 hours. During validation of 42 beach models during 2012, the models performed better than the current method to assess recreational water quality (previous day's E. coli concentration). The USGS will continue to work with local agencies to improve nowcast predictions, enable technology transfer of predictive model development procedures, and implement more operational systems during 2013 and beyond.

Image Quality Assessment Based on Local Linear Information and Distortion-Specific Compensation.

PubMed

Wang, Hanli; Fu, Jie; Lin, Weisi; Hu, Sudeng; Kuo, C-C Jay; Zuo, Lingxuan

2016-12-14

Image Quality Assessment (IQA) is a fundamental yet constantly developing task for computer vision and image processing. Most IQA evaluation mechanisms are based on the pertinence of subjective and objective estimation. Each image distortion type has its own property correlated with human perception. However, this intrinsic property may not be fully exploited by existing IQA methods. In this paper, we make two main contributions to the IQA field. First, a novel IQA method is developed based on a local linear model that examines the distortion between the reference and the distorted images for better alignment with human visual experience. Second, a distortion-specific compensation strategy is proposed to offset the negative effect on IQA modeling caused by different image distortion types. These score offsets are learned from several known distortion types. Furthermore, for an image with an unknown distortion type, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based method is proposed to compute the score offset automatically. Finally, an integrated IQA metric is proposed by combining the aforementioned two ideas. Extensive experiments are performed to verify the proposed IQA metric, which demonstrate that the local linear model is useful in human perception modeling, especially for individual image distortion, and the overall IQA method outperforms several state-of-the-art IQA approaches.

Clinical governance is "ACE"--using the EFQM excellence model to support baseline assessment.

PubMed

Holland, K; Fennell, S

2000-01-01

The introduction of clinical governance in the "new NHS" means that National Health Service (NHS) organisations are now accountable for the quality of the services they provide to their local communities. As part of the implementation of clinical governance in the NHS, Trusts and health authorities had to complete a baseline assessment of their capability and capacity by September 1999. Describes one Trust's approach to developing and implementing its baseline assessment tool, based upon its existing use of the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) Excellence Model. An initial review of the process suggests that the model provides an adaptable framework for the development of a comprehensive and practical assessment tool and that self-assessment ensures ownership of action plans at service level.

Application of economic impact analysis to a local public health agency and its "Academic Health Department".

PubMed

Livingood, Wiliiam C; Coughlin, Susan; Bowman, Walter; Bryant, Thomas; Goldhagen, Jeffrey

2007-01-01

Public health systems are stressed by increasing demands and inadequate resources. This study was designed to demonstrate how economic impact analysis can estimate the economic value of a local public health system's infrastructure as well as the economic assets of an "Academic Health Department" model. This study involved the secondary analysis of publicly available data on health department finances and employment using proprietary software specifically designed to assess economic impacts. The health department's impact on the local community was estimated at over 100 million dollars, exceeding the economic impact of other recently studied local industries with no additional costs to local taxpayers.

Multilevel Analysis of the Effects of Antidiscrimination Policies on Earnings by Sexual Orientation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klawitter, Marieka

2011-01-01

This study uses the 2000 U.S. Census data to assess the impact of antidiscrimination policies for sexual orientation on earnings for gays and lesbians. Using a multilevel model allows estimation of the effects of state and local policies on earnings and of variation in the effects of sexual orientation across local labor markets. The results…

Using Testlet Response Theory to Examine Local Dependence in C-Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eckes, Thomas; Baghaei, Purya

2015-01-01

C-tests are gap-filling tests widely used to assess general language proficiency for purposes of placement, screening, or provision of feedback to language learners. C-tests consist of several short texts in which parts of words are missing. We addressed the issue of local dependence in C-tests using an explicit modeling approach based on testlet…

Local Access to Family Planning Services and Female High School Dropout Rates.

PubMed

Hicks-Courant, Katherine; Schwartz, Aaron L

2016-04-01

To assess whether geographic access to family planning services is associated with a reduced female high school dropout rate. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study. We merged the location of Planned Parenthood and Title X clinics with microdata from the 2012-2013 American Community Surveys. The association between female high school dropout rates and local clinic access was assessed using nearest-neighbor matching estimation. Models included various covariates to account for sociodemographic differences across communities and male high school dropout rates to account for unmeasured community characteristics affecting educational outcomes. Our sample included 284,910 16- to 22-year-old females. The presence of a Planned Parenthood clinic was associated with a decrease (4.08% compared with 4.83%; relative risk ratio 0.84, P<.001) in female high school dropout rates. This association was consistent across several model specifications. The presence of a Title X clinic was associated with a decrease (4.79% compared with 5.07%; relative risk ratio 0.94, P=.03) in female high school dropout rates, an association that did not remain significant across model specifications. Local access to Planned Parenthood is associated with lower high school dropout rates in young women.

Virtual population-based assessment of the impact of 3 Tesla radiofrequency shimming and thermoregulation on safety and B1 + uniformity.

PubMed

Murbach, Manuel; Neufeld, Esra; Cabot, Eugenia; Zastrow, Earl; Córcoles, Juan; Kainz, Wolfgang; Kuster, Niels

2016-09-01

To assess the effect of radiofrequency (RF) shimming of a 3 Tesla (T) two-port body coil on B1 + uniformity, the local specific absorption rate (SAR), and the local temperature increase as a function of the thermoregulatory response. RF shimming alters induced current distribution, which may result in large changes in the level and location of absorbed RF energy. We investigated this effect with six anatomical human models from the Virtual Population in 10 imaging landmarks and four RF coils. Three thermoregulation models were applied to estimate potential local temperature increases, including a newly proposed model for impaired thermoregulation. Two-port RF shimming, compared to circular polarization mode, can increase the B1 + uniformity on average by +32%. Worst-case SAR excitations increase the local RF power deposition on average by +39%. In the first level controlled operating mode, induced peak temperatures reach 42.5°C and 45.6°C in patients with normal and impaired thermoregulation, respectively. Image quality with 3T body coils can be significantly increased by RF shimming. Exposure in realistic scan scenarios within guideline limits can be considered safe for a broad patient population with normal thermoregulation. Patients with impaired thermoregulation should not be scanned outside of the normal operating mode. Magn Reson Med 76:986-997, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Combined Pharmacokinetic and Radiologic Assessment of Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predicts Response to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Semple, Scott; Harry, Vanessa N. MRCOG.; Parkin, David E.

2009-10-01

Purpose: To investigate the combination of pharmacokinetic and radiologic assessment of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as an early response indicator in women receiving chemoradiation for advanced cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: Twenty women with locally advanced cervical cancer were included in a prospective cohort study. Dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI was carried out before chemoradiation, after 2 weeks of therapy, and at the conclusion of therapy using a 1.5-T MRI scanner. Radiologic assessment of uptake parameters was obtained from resultant intensity curves. Pharmacokinetic analysis using a multicompartment model was also performed. General linear modeling was used to combine radiologic andmore » pharmacokinetic parameters and correlated with eventual response as determined by change in MRI tumor size and conventional clinical response. A subgroup of 11 women underwent repeat pretherapy MRI to test pharmacokinetic reproducibility. Results: Pretherapy radiologic parameters and pharmacokinetic K{sup trans} correlated with response (p < 0.01). General linear modeling demonstrated that a combination of radiologic and pharmacokinetic assessments before therapy was able to predict more than 88% of variance of response. Reproducibility of pharmacokinetic modeling was confirmed. Conclusions: A combination of radiologic assessment with pharmacokinetic modeling applied to dynamic MRI before the start of chemoradiation improves the predictive power of either by more than 20%. The potential improvements in therapy response prediction using this type of combined analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI may aid in the development of more individualized, effective therapy regimens for this patient group.« less

A Satellite Model for Rural and Remote Social Work Field Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowles, Wendy; Duncombe, Rohena

2005-01-01

Social work field education is expanding in rural areas at a time when rural social work is under great strain. This paper discusses a new model for rural field education. In this "satellite" model, the university employs local senior social workers as university liaison staff to locate, organise, resource, support and assess social work…

Dynamic N -occupancy models: estimating demographic rates and local abundance from detection-nondetection data

Treesearch

Sam Rossman; Charles B. Yackulic; Sarah P. Saunders; Janice Reid; Ray Davis; Elise F. Zipkin

2016-01-01

Occupancy modeling is a widely used analytical technique for assessing species distributions and range dynamics. However, occupancy analyses frequently ignore variation in abundance of occupied sites, even though site abundances affect many of the parameters being estimated (e.g., extinction, colonization, detection probability). We introduce a new model (“dynamic

Air quality impacted by local pollution sources and beyond - Using a prominent petro-industrial complex as a study case.

PubMed

Chen, Sheng-Po; Wang, Chieh-Heng; Lin, Wen-Dian; Tong, Yu-Huei; Chen, Yu-Chun; Chiu, Ching-Jui; Chiang, Hung-Chi; Fan, Chen-Lun; Wang, Jia-Lin; Chang, Julius S

2018-05-01

The present study combines high-resolution measurements at various distances from a world-class gigantic petrochemical complex with model simulations to test a method to assess industrial emissions and their effect on local air quality. Due to the complexity in wind conditions which were highly seasonal, the dominant wind flow patterns in the coastal region of interest were classified into three types, namely northeast monsoonal (NEM) flows, southwest monsoonal (SEM) flows and local circulation (LC) based on six years of monitoring data. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) was chosen as an indicative pollutant for prominent industrial emissions. A high-density monitoring network of 12 air-quality stations distributed within a 20-km radius surrounding the petrochemical complex provided hourly measurements of SO 2 and wind parameters. The SO 2 emissions from major industrial sources registered by the monitoring network were then used to validate model simulations and to illustrate the transport of the SO 2 plumes under the three typical wind patterns. It was found that the coupling of observations and modeling was able to successfully explain the transport of the industrial plumes. Although the petrochemical complex was seemingly the only major source to affect local air quality, multiple prominent sources from afar also played a significant role in local air quality. As a result, we found that a more complete and balanced assessment of the local air quality can be achieved only after taking into account the wind characteristics and emission factors of a much larger spatial scale than the initial (20 km by 20 km) study domain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a hierarchical model for predicting microbiological contamination of private groundwater supplies in a geologically heterogeneous region.

PubMed

O'Dwyer, Jean; Hynds, Paul D; Byrne, Kenneth A; Ryan, Michael P; Adley, Catherine C

2018-06-01

Private groundwater sources in the Republic of Ireland provide drinking water to an estimated 750,000 people or 16% of the national population. Consumers of untreated groundwater are at increased risk of infection from pathogenic microorganisms. However, given the volume of private wells in operation, remediation or even quantification of public risk is both costly and time consuming. In this study, a hierarchical logistic regression model was developed to 'predict' contamination with E. coli based on the results of groundwater quality analyses of private wells (n = 132) during the period of September 2011 to November 2012. Assessment of potential microbial contamination risk factors were categorised into three groups: Intrinsic (environmental factors), Specific (local features) and Infrastructural (groundwater source characteristics) which included a total of 15 variables. Overall, 51.4% of wells tested positive for E. coli during the study period with univariate analysis indicating that 11 of the 15 assessed risk factors, including local bedrock type, local subsoil type, septic tank reliance, 5 day antecedent precipitation and temperature, along with well type and depth, were all significantly associated with E. coli presence (p < 0.05). Hierarchical logistic regression was used to develop a private well susceptibility model with the final model containing 8 of the 11 associated variables. The model was shown to be highly efficient; correctly classifying the presence of E. coli in 94.2% of cases, and the absence of E. coli in 84.7% of cases. Model validation was performed using an external data set (n = 32) and it was shown that the model has promising accuracy with 90% of positive E. coli cases correctly predicted. The developed model represents a risk assessment and management tool that may be used to develop effective water-quality management strategies to minimize public health risks both in Ireland and abroad. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Massive integration of diverse protein quality assessment methods to improve template based modeling in CASP11

PubMed Central

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Adhikari, Badri; Li, Jilong; Cheng, Jianlin

2015-01-01

Model evaluation and selection is an important step and a big challenge in template-based protein structure prediction. Individual model quality assessment methods designed for recognizing some specific properties of protein structures often fail to consistently select good models from a model pool because of their limitations. Therefore, combining multiple complimentary quality assessment methods is useful for improving model ranking and consequently tertiary structure prediction. Here, we report the performance and analysis of our human tertiary structure predictor (MULTICOM) based on the massive integration of 14 diverse complementary quality assessment methods that was successfully benchmarked in the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques of Protein Structure prediction (CASP11). The predictions of MULTICOM for 39 template-based domains were rigorously assessed by six scoring metrics covering global topology of Cα trace, local all-atom fitness, side chain quality, and physical reasonableness of the model. The results show that the massive integration of complementary, diverse single-model and multi-model quality assessment methods can effectively leverage the strength of single-model methods in distinguishing quality variation among similar good models and the advantage of multi-model quality assessment methods of identifying reasonable average-quality models. The overall excellent performance of the MULTICOM predictor demonstrates that integrating a large number of model quality assessment methods in conjunction with model clustering is a useful approach to improve the accuracy, diversity, and consequently robustness of template-based protein structure prediction. PMID:26369671

MODFLOW-LGR: Practical application to a large regional dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, D.; Coulibaly, K. M.

2011-12-01

In many areas of the US, including southwest Florida, large regional-scale groundwater models have been developed to aid in decision making and water resources management. These models are subsequently used as a basis for site-specific investigations. Because the large scale of these regional models is not appropriate for local application, refinement is necessary to analyze the local effects of pumping wells and groundwater related projects at specific sites. The most commonly used approach to date is Telescopic Mesh Refinement or TMR. It allows the extraction of a subset of the large regional model with boundary conditions derived from the regional model results. The extracted model is then updated and refined for local use using a variable sized grid focused on the area of interest. MODFLOW-LGR, local grid refinement, is an alternative approach which allows model discretization at a finer resolution in areas of interest and provides coupling between the larger "parent" model and the locally refined "child." In the present work, these two approaches are tested on a mining impact assessment case in southwest Florida using a large regional dataset (The Lower West Coast Surficial Aquifer System Model). Various metrics for performance are considered. They include: computation time, water balance (as compared to the variable sized grid), calibration, implementation effort, and application advantages and limitations. The results indicate that MODFLOW-LGR is a useful tool to improve local resolution of regional scale models. While performance metrics, such as computation time, are case-dependent (model size, refinement level, stresses involved), implementation effort, particularly when regional models of suitable scale are available, can be minimized. The creation of multiple child models within a larger scale parent model makes it possible to reuse the same calibrated regional dataset with minimal modification. In cases similar to the Lower West Coast model, where a model is larger than optimal for direct application as a parent grid, a combination of TMR and LGR approaches should be used to develop a suitable parent grid.

Prediction of global and local model quality in CASP8 using the ModFOLD server.

PubMed

McGuffin, Liam J

2009-01-01

The development of effective methods for predicting the quality of three-dimensional (3D) models is fundamentally important for the success of tertiary structure (TS) prediction strategies. Since CASP7, the Quality Assessment (QA) category has existed to gauge the ability of various model quality assessment programs (MQAPs) at predicting the relative quality of individual 3D models. For the CASP8 experiment, automated predictions were submitted in the QA category using two methods from the ModFOLD server-ModFOLD version 1.1 and ModFOLDclust. ModFOLD version 1.1 is a single-model machine learning based method, which was used for automated predictions of global model quality (QMODE1). ModFOLDclust is a simple clustering based method, which was used for automated predictions of both global and local quality (QMODE2). In addition, manual predictions of model quality were made using ModFOLD version 2.0--an experimental method that combines the scores from ModFOLDclust and ModFOLD v1.1. Predictions from the ModFOLDclust method were the most successful of the three in terms of the global model quality, whilst the ModFOLD v1.1 method was comparable in performance to other single-model based methods. In addition, the ModFOLDclust method performed well at predicting the per-residue, or local, model quality scores. Predictions of the per-residue errors in our own 3D models, selected using the ModFOLD v2.0 method, were also the most accurate compared with those from other methods. All of the MQAPs described are publicly accessible via the ModFOLD server at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. The methods are also freely available to download from: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/downloads/. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Modeling of Tracer Transport Delays for Improved Quantification of Regional Pulmonary ¹⁸F-FDG Kinetics, Vascular Transit Times, and Perfusion.

PubMed

Wellman, Tyler J; Winkler, Tilo; Vidal Melo, Marcos F

2015-11-01

¹⁸F-FDG-PET is increasingly used to assess pulmonary inflammatory cell activity. However, current models of pulmonary ¹⁸F-FDG kinetics do not account for delays in ¹⁸F-FDG transport between the plasma sampling site and the lungs. We developed a three-compartment model of ¹⁸F-FDG kinetics that includes a delay between the right heart and the local capillary blood pool, and used this model to estimate regional pulmonary perfusion. We acquired dynamic ¹⁸F-FDG scans in 12 mechanically ventilated sheep divided into control and lung injury groups (n = 6 each). The model was fit to tracer kinetics in three isogravitational regions-of-interest to estimate regional lung transport delays and regional perfusion. ¹³NN bolus infusion scans were acquired during a period of apnea to measure regional perfusion using an established reference method. The delayed input function model improved description of ¹⁸F-FDG kinetics (lower Akaike Information Criterion) in 98% of studied regions. Local transport delays ranged from 2.0 to 13.6 s, averaging 6.4 ± 2.9 s, and were highest in non-dependent regions. Estimates of regional perfusion derived from model parameters were highly correlated with perfusion measurements based on ¹³NN-PET (R² = 0.92, p < 0.001). By incorporating local vascular transports delays, this model of pulmonary ¹⁸F-FDG kinetics allows for simultaneous assessment of regional lung perfusion, transit times, and inflammation.

Hybrid Modeling Approach to Estimate Exposures of Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) for the National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA).

PubMed

Scheffe, Richard D; Strum, Madeleine; Phillips, Sharon B; Thurman, James; Eyth, Alison; Fudge, Steve; Morris, Mark; Palma, Ted; Cook, Richard

2016-11-15

A hybrid air quality model has been developed and applied to estimate annual concentrations of 40 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) across the continental United States (CONUS) to support the 2011 calendar year National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). By combining a chemical transport model (CTM) with a Gaussian dispersion model, both reactive and nonreactive HAPs are accommodated across local to regional spatial scales, through a multiplicative technique designed to improve mass conservation relative to previous additive methods. The broad scope of multiple pollutants capturing regional to local spatial scale patterns across a vast spatial domain is precedent setting within the air toxics community. The hybrid design exhibits improved performance relative to the stand alone CTM and dispersion model. However, model performance varies widely across pollutant categories and quantifiably definitive performance assessments are hampered by a limited observation base and challenged by the multiple physical and chemical attributes of HAPs. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde are the dominant HAP concentration and cancer risk drivers, characterized by strong regional signals associated with naturally emitted carbonyl precursors enhanced in urban transport corridors with strong mobile source sector emissions. The multiple pollutant emission characteristics of combustion dominated source sectors creates largely similar concentration patterns across the majority of HAPs. However, reactive carbonyls exhibit significantly less spatial variability relative to nonreactive HAPs across the CONUS.

Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment of Tectonic and Landslide Tsunamis in Southeast Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Koehler, R. D., III

2014-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska, and is currently focused on the southeastern region and communities of Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Gustavus and Hoonah. This activity provides local emergency officials with tsunami hazard assessment, planning, and mitigation tools. At-risk communities are distributed along several segments of the Alaska coastline, each having a unique seismic history and potential tsunami hazard. Thus, a critical component of our project is accurate identification and characterization of potential tectonic and landslide tsunami sources. The primary tectonic element of Southeast Alaska is the Fairweather - Queen Charlotte fault system, which has ruptured in 5 large strike-slip earthquakes in the past 100 years. The 1958 "Lituya Bay" earthquake triggered a large landslide into Lituya Bay that generated a 540-m-high wave. The M7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake of October 28, 2012 occurred along the same fault, but was associated with dominantly vertical motion, generating a local tsunami. Communities in Southeast Alaska are also vulnerable to hazards related to locally generated waves, due to proximity of communities to landslide-prone fjords and frequent earthquakes. The primary mechanisms for local tsunami generation are failure of steep rock slopes due to relaxation of internal stresses after deglaciation, and failure of thick unconsolidated sediments accumulated on underwater delta fronts at river mouths. We numerically model potential tsunami waves and inundation extent that may result from future hypothetical far- and near-field earthquakes and landslides. We perform simulations for each source scenario using the Alaska Tsunami Model, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by emergency planners.

Odour-impact assessment around a landfill site from weather-type classification, complaint inventory and numerical simulation.

PubMed

Chemel, C; Riesenmey, C; Batton-Hubert, M; Vaillant, H

2012-01-01

Gases released from landfill sites into the atmosphere have the potential to cause olfactory nuisances within the surrounding communities. Landfill sites are often located over complex topography for convenience mainly related to waste disposal and environmental masking. Dispersion of odours is strongly conditioned by local atmospheric dynamics. Assessment of odour impacts needs to take into account the variability of local atmospheric dynamics. In this study, we discuss a method to assess odour impacts around a landfill site located over complex terrain in order to provide information to be used subsequently to identify management strategies to reduce olfactory nuisances in the residential neighbourhoods. A weather-type classification is defined in order to identify meteorological conditions under which olfactory nuisances are to be expected. A non-steady state Gaussian model and a full-physics meteorological model are used to predict olfactory nuisances, for both the winter and summer scenarios that lead to the majority of complaints in neighbourhoods surrounding the landfill site. Simulating representative scenarios rather than full years make a high resolution simulation of local atmospheric dynamics in space and time possible. Results underline the key role of local atmospheric dynamics in driving the dispersion of odours. The odour concentration simulated by the full-physics meteorological model is combined with the density of the population in order to calculate an average population exposure for the two scenarios. Results of this study are expected to provide helpful information to develop technical solutions for an effective management of landfill operations, which would reduce odour impacts within the surrounding communities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Descriptive-Comparative Study of Teacher Performance Evaluation on Student Achievement in a Public School District

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christensen, William Howard

2013-01-01

In 2010, the federal government increased accountability expectations by placing more emphasis on monitoring teacher performance. Using a model that focuses on the New York State teacher evaluation system, that is comprised of a rubric for observation, local student assessment scores, and student state assessment scores, this…

Adaptation of Kirkpatrick's Four Level Model of Training Criteria to Assessment of Learning Outcomes and Program Evaluation in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Praslova, Ludmila

2010-01-01

Assessment of educational effectiveness provides vitally important feedback to Institutions of Higher Education. It also provides important information to external stakeholders, such as prospective students, parents, governmental and local regulatory entities, professional and regional accrediting organizations, and representatives of the…

QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY CONTROL IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT (AGWA) TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving from simple, local-scale problems toward complex, spatially explicit regional ones. Such problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and t...

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed-scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, ...

Greenwich Township Environmental Analysis: A Field Study 1972-74.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bahorik, J. Wesley, Ed.

This project attempted to develop a baseline on which the community could assess its own local environment. The objectives of the study include developing a list of references and resources, developing an assessment model for community use, composing an environmental quality index, determining areas to be protected and persuading decision-making…

A Local Forecast of Land Surface Wetness Conditions, Drought, and St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Transmission Derived from Seasonal Climate Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaman, J.; Stieglitz, M.; Zebiak, S.; Cane, M.; Day, J. F.

2002-12-01

We present an ensemble local hydrologic forecast derived from the seasonal forecasts of the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction. Three- month seasonal forecasts were used to resample historical meteorological conditions and generate ensemble forcing datasets for a TOPMODEL-based hydrology model. Eleven retrospective forecasts were run at a Florida and New York site. Forecast skill was assessed for mean area modeled water table depth (WTD), i.e. near surface soil wetness conditions, and compared with WTD simulated with observed data. Hydrology model forecast skill was evident at the Florida site but not at the New York site. At the Florida site, persistence of hydrologic conditions and local skill of the IRI seasonal forecast contributed to the local hydrologic forecast skill. This forecast will permit probabilistic prediction of future hydrologic conditions. At the Florida site, we have also quantified the link between modeled WTD (i.e. drought) and the amplification and transmission of St. Louis Encephalitis virus (SLEV). We derive an empirical relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission associated with human clinical cases. We then combine the seasonal forecasts of local, modeled WTD with this empirical relationship and produce retrospective probabilistic seasonal forecasts of epidemic SLEV transmission in Florida. Epidemic SLEV transmission forecast skill is demonstrated. These findings will permit real-time forecast of drought and resultant SLEV transmission in Florida.

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

Models, Measurements, and Local Decisions: Assessing and Addressing Impacts from Port Expansion and Traffic Activity

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation includes a combination of modeling and measurement results to characterize near-source air quality in Newark, New Jersey with consideration of how this information could be used to inform decision making to reduce risk of health impacts. Decisions could include ...

LUMINATE: Linking agricultural land use, local water quality and Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this paper, we discuss the importance of developing integrated assessment models to support the design and implementation of policies to address water quality problems associated with agricultural pollution. We describe a new modelling system, LUMINATE, which links land use decisions made at the...

Wisconsin's Model Academic Standards for Music.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nikolay, Pauli; Grady, Susan; Stefonek, Thomas

To assist parents and educators in preparing students for the 21st century, Wisconsin citizens have become involved in the development of challenging academic standards in 12 curricular areas. Having clear standards for students and teachers makes it possible to develop rigorous local curricula and valid, reliable assessments. This model of…

Floods in a changing climate

Treesearch

Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

2013-01-01

Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

Local dynamic subgrid-scale models in channel flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabot, William H.

1994-01-01

The dynamic subgrid-scale (SGS) model has given good results in the large-eddy simulation (LES) of homogeneous isotropic or shear flow, and in the LES of channel flow, using averaging in two or three homogeneous directions (the DA model). In order to simulate flows in general, complex geometries (with few or no homogeneous directions), the dynamic SGS model needs to be applied at a local level in a numerically stable way. Channel flow, which is inhomogeneous and wall-bounded flow in only one direction, provides a good initial test for local SGS models. Tests of the dynamic localization model were performed previously in channel flow using a pseudospectral code and good results were obtained. Numerical instability due to persistently negative eddy viscosity was avoided by either constraining the eddy viscosity to be positive or by limiting the time that eddy viscosities could remain negative by co-evolving the SGS kinetic energy (the DLk model). The DLk model, however, was too expensive to run in the pseudospectral code due to a large near-wall term in the auxiliary SGS kinetic energy (k) equation. One objective was then to implement the DLk model in a second-order central finite difference channel code, in which the auxiliary k equation could be integrated implicitly in time at great reduction in cost, and to assess its performance in comparison with the plane-averaged dynamic model or with no model at all, and with direct numerical simulation (DNS) and/or experimental data. Other local dynamic SGS models have been proposed recently, e.g., constrained dynamic models with random backscatter, and with eddy viscosity terms that are averaged in time over material path lines rather than in space. Another objective was to incorporate and test these models in channel flow.

Assimilation of global versus local data sets into a regional model of the Gulf Stream system. 1. Data effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola; Young, Roberta E.

1995-12-01

The primary objective of this paper is to assess the relative effectiveness of data sets with different space coverage and time resolution when they are assimilated into an ocean circulation model. We focus on obtaining realistic numerical simulations of the Gulf Stream system typically of the order of 3-month duration by constructing a "synthetic" ocean simultaneously consistent with the model dynamics and the observations. The model used is the Semispectral Primitive Equation Model. The data sets are the "global" Optimal Thermal Interpolation Scheme (OTIS) 3 of the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center providing temperature and salinity fields with global coverage and with bi-weekly frequency, and the localized measurements, mostly of current velocities, from the central and eastern array moorings of the Synoptic Ocean Prediction (SYNOP) program, with daily frequency but with a very small spatial coverage. We use a suboptimal assimilation technique ("nudging"). Even though this technique has already been used in idealized data assimilation studies, to our knowledge this is the first study in which the effectiveness of nudging is tested by assimilating real observations of the interior temperature and salinity fields. This is also the first work in which a systematic assimilation is carried out of the localized, high-quality SYNOP data sets in numerical experiments longer than 1-2 weeks, that is, not aimed to forecasting. We assimilate (1) the global OTIS 3 alone, (2) the local SYNOP observations alone, and (3) both OTIS 3 and SYNOP observations. We assess the success of the assimilations with quantitative measures of performance, both on the global and local scale. The results can be summarized as follows. The intermittent assimilation of the global OTIS 3 is necessary to keep the model "on track" over 3-month simulations on the global scale. As OTIS 3 is assimilated at every model grid point, a "gentle" weight must be prescribed to it so as not to overconstrain the model. However, in these assimilations the predicted velocity fields over the SYNOP arrays are greatly in error. The continuous assimilation of the localized SYNOP data sets with a strong weight is necessary to obtain local realistic evolutions. Then assimilation of velocity measurements alone recovers the density structure over the array area. However, the spatial coverage of the SYNOP measurements is too small to constrain the model on the global scale. Thus the blending of both types of datasets is necessary in the assimilation as they constrain different time and space scales. Our choice of "gentle" nudging weight for the global OTIS 3 and "strong" weight for the local SYNOP data provides for realistic simulations of the Gulf Stream system, both globally and locally, on the 3- to 4-month-long timescale, the one governed by the Gulf Stream jet internal dynamics.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-12-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-02-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Assessing Landscape Constraints on Species Abundance: Does the Neighborhood Limit Species Response to Local Habitat Conservation Programs?

PubMed Central

Jorgensen, Christopher F.; Powell, Larkin A.; Lusk, Jeffery J.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

Landscapes in agricultural systems continue to undergo significant change, and the loss of biodiversity is an ever-increasing threat. Although habitat restoration is beneficial, management actions do not always result in the desired outcome. Managers must understand why management actions fail; yet, past studies have focused on assessing habitat attributes at a single spatial scale, and often fail to consider the importance of ecological mechanisms that act across spatial scales. We located survey sites across southern Nebraska, USA and conducted point counts to estimate Ring-necked Pheasant abundance, an economically important species to the region, while simultaneously quantifying landscape effects using a geographic information system. To identify suitable areas for allocating limited management resources, we assessed land cover relationships to our counts using a Bayesian binomial-Poisson hierarchical model to construct predictive Species Distribution Models of relative abundance. Our results indicated that landscape scale land cover variables severely constrained or, alternatively, facilitated the positive effects of local land management for Ring-necked Pheasants. PMID:24918779

Assessing landscape constraints on species abundance: Does the neighborhood limit species response to local habitat conservation programs?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jorgensen, Christopher F.; Powell, Larkin A.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

Landscapes in agricultural systems continue to undergo significant change, and the loss of biodiversity is an ever-increasing threat. Although habitat restoration is beneficial, management actions do not always result in the desired outcome. Managers must understand why management actions fail; yet, past studies have focused on assessing habitat attributes at a single spatial scale, and often fail to consider the importance of ecological mechanisms that act across spatial scales. We located survey sites across southern Nebraska, USA and conducted point counts to estimate Ring-necked Pheasant abundance, an economically important species to the region, while simultaneously quantifying landscape effects using a geographic information system. To identify suitable areas for allocating limited management resources, we assessed land cover relationships to our counts using a Bayesian binomial-Poisson hierarchical model to construct predictive Species Distribution Models of relative abundance. Our results indicated that landscape scale land cover variables severely constrained or, alternatively, facilitated the positive effects of local land management for Ring-necked Pheasants.

Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

2013-12-01

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences from AgMIP Regional Teams, and from the project on Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, are used to discuss how the RAPs procedures can be further developed and improved, and how RAPs can help engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results.

Modeling the influence of local environmental factors on malaria transmission in Benin and its implications for cohort study.

PubMed

Cottrell, Gilles; Kouwaye, Bienvenue; Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission--even at a very local scale--is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors.As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages.This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics.

Modeling the Influence of Local Environmental Factors on Malaria Transmission in Benin and Its Implications for Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission—even at a very local scale—is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors. As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages. This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics. PMID:22238582

Climate Change and Conservation Planning in California: The San Francisco Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branciforte, R.; Weiss, S. B.; Schaefer, N.

2008-12-01

Climate change threatens California's vast and unique biodiversity. The Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals is a comprehensive regional biodiversity assessment of the 9 counties surrounding San Francisco Bay, and is designing conservation land networks that will serve to protect, manage, and restore that biodiversity. Conservation goals for vegetation, rare plants, mammals, birds, fish, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates are set, and those goals are met using the optimization algorithm MARXAN. Climate change issues are being considered in the assessment and network design in several ways. The high spatial variability at mesoclimatic and topoclimatic scales in California creates high local biodiversity, and provides some degree of local resiliency to macroclimatic change. Mesoclimatic variability from 800 m scale PRISM climatic norms is used to assess "mesoclimate spaces" in distinct mountain ranges, so that high mesoclimatic variability, especially local extremes that likely support range limits of species and potential climatic refugia, can be captured in the network. Quantitative measures of network resiliency to climate change include the spatial range of key temperature and precipitation variables within planning units. Topoclimatic variability provides a finer-grained spatial patterning. Downscaling to the topoclimatic scale (10-50 m scale) includes modeling solar radiation across DEMs for predicting maximum temperature differentials, and topographic position indices for modeling minimum temperature differentials. PRISM data are also used to differentiate grasslands into distinct warm and cool types. The overall conservation strategy includes local and regional connectivity so that range shifts can be accommodated.

Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, L.; Titov, V. V.; Chamberlin, C. D.

2009-12-01

The study describes the development, testing and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast and warning system. The model development process includes sensitivity studies of tsunami wave characteristics in the nearshore and inundation, for a range of model grid setups, resolutions and parameters. To demonstrate the process, four forecast models in Hawaii, at Hilo, Kahului, Honolulu, and Nawiliwili are described. The models were validated with fourteen historical tsunamis and compared with numerical results from reference inundation models of higher resolution. The accuracy of the modeled maximum wave height is greater than 80% when the observation is greater than 0.5 m; when the observation is below 0.5 m the error is less than 0.3 m. The error of the modeled arrival time of the first peak is within 3% of the travel time. The developed forecast models were further applied to hazard assessment from simulated magnitude 7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3 tsunamis based on subduction zone earthquakes in the Pacific. The tsunami hazard assessment study indicates that use of a seismic magnitude alone for a tsunami source assessment is inadequate to achieve such accuracy for tsunami amplitude forecasts. The forecast models apply local bathymetric and topographic information, and utilize dynamic boundary conditions from the tsunami source function database, to provide site- and event-specific coastal predictions. Only by combining a Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami-constrained tsunami magnitude with site-specific high-resolution models can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generation, deep ocean propagation, and coastal inundation. Wavelet analysis of the tsunami waves suggests the coastal tsunami frequency responses at different sites are dominated by the local bathymetry, yet they can be partially related to the locations of the tsunami sources. The study also demonstrates the nonlinearity between offshore and nearshore maximum wave amplitudes.

Looking around houses: attention to a model when drawing complex shapes in Williams syndrome and typical development.

PubMed

Hudson, Kerry D; Farran, Emily K

2013-09-01

Drawings by individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) typically lack cohesion. The popular hypothesis is that this is a result of excessive focus on local-level detail at the expense of global configuration. In this study, we explored a novel hypothesis that inadequate attention might underpin drawing in WS. WS and typically developing (TD) non-verbal ability matched groups copied and traced a house figure comprised of geometric shapes. The house was presented on a computer screen for 5-s periods and participants pressed a key to re-view the model. Frequency of key-presses indexed the looks to the model. The order that elements were replicated was recorded to assess hierarchisation of elements. If a lack of attention to the model explained poor drawing performance, we expected participants with WS to look less frequently to the model than TD children when copying. If a local-processing preference underpins drawing in WS, more local than global elements would be produced. Results supported the first, but not second hypothesis. The WS group looked to the model infrequently, but global, not local, parts were drawn first, scaffolding local-level details. Both groups adopted a similar order of drawing and tracing of parts, suggesting typical, although delayed strategy-use in the WS group. Additionally both groups drew larger elements of the model before smaller elements, suggested a size-bias when drawing. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teaching a Student to Read through a Screen: Using SKYPE to Facilitate a Field Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunther, Jeanne

2016-01-01

The Distance Clinical Connecting Candidates and Children (DC4) is an innovative new model for providing a clinical experience in a reading methods course. Pre-service teachers used this model to implement assessments and lessons via SKYPE with local elementary students. I designed this model to provide a clinical experience when faced with…

Application of Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) to estimate climate variability impacts on nutrient loading from local watersheds

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Prem B. Parajuli; Gary Feng; Theodor D. Leininger; Yongshan Wan; Padmanava Dash

2018-01-01

A vast amount of future climate scenario datasets, created by climate models such as general circulation models (GCMs), have been used in conjunction with watershed models to project future climate variability impact on hydrological processes and water quality. However, these low spatial-temporal resolution datasets are often difficult to downscale spatially and...

Theoretical Models of Comprehension Skills Tested through a Comprehension Assessment Battery for Primary School Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tobia, Valentina; Ciancaleoni, Matteo; Bonifacci, Paola

2017-01-01

In this study, two alternative theoretical models were compared, in order to analyze which of them best explains primary school children's text comprehension skills. The first one was based on the distinction between two types of answers requested by the comprehension test: local or global. The second model involved texts' input modality: written…

BASINS Framework and Features

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BASINS enables users to efficiently access nationwide environmental databases and local user-specified datasets, apply assessment and planning tools, and run a variety of proven nonpoint loading and water quality models within a single GIS format.

Saliency image of feature building for image quality assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, Xinuo; Sun, Jiyin; Wang, Peng

2011-11-01

The purpose and method of image quality assessment are quite different for automatic target recognition (ATR) and traditional application. Local invariant feature detectors, mainly including corner detectors, blob detectors and region detectors etc., are widely applied for ATR. A saliency model of feature was proposed to evaluate feasibility of ATR in this paper. The first step consisted of computing the first-order derivatives on horizontal orientation and vertical orientation, and computing DoG maps in different scales respectively. Next, saliency images of feature were built based auto-correlation matrix in different scale. Then, saliency images of feature of different scales amalgamated. Experiment were performed on a large test set, including infrared images and optical images, and the result showed that the salient regions computed by this model were consistent with real feature regions computed by mostly local invariant feature extraction algorithms.

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

PubMed

Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

2018-06-05

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

AgMIP's Transdisciplinary Agricultural Systems Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antle, John M.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Janssen, Sander; Jones, James W.; Porter, Cheryl H.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Thorburn, Peter J.

2015-01-01

This chapter describes methods developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to implement a transdisciplinary, systems-based approach for regional-scale (local to national) integrated assessment of agricultural systems under future climate, biophysical, and socio-economic conditions. These methods were used by the AgMIP regional research teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to implement the analyses reported in their respective chapters of this book. Additional technical details are provided in Appendix 1.The principal goal that motivates AgMIP's regional integrated assessment (RIA) methodology is to provide scientifically rigorous information needed to support improved decision-making by various stakeholders, ranging from local to national and international non-governmental and governmental organizations.

A Model for Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Keating, G. N.

2009-12-01

Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy. Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water usage can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. In response to the greenhouse gas emission reductions required by California’s Assembly Bill 32 (2006), Sonoma County has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, including water, energy, and transportation. To assist Sonoma County develop a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal we have developed an integrated assessment model, CLEAR (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency) model. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, the CLEAR model simulates the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. This model enables assessment of these and other components with specific analysis of their coupling and feedbacks because, due to the complex nature of the problem, the interrelated sectors cannot be studied independently. The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities. The model user interfaces helps stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation.

Assessment of Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) geoid model using GPS levelling over Sabah and Sarawak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othman, A. H.; Omar, K. M.; Din, A. H. M.; Som, Z. A. M.; Yahaya, N. A. Z.; Pa'suya, M. F.

2016-06-01

The GOCE satellite mission has significantly contributed to various applications such as solid earth physics, oceanography and geodesy. Some substantial applications of geodesy are to improve the gravity field knowledge and the precise geoid modelling towards realising global height unification. This paper aims to evaluate GOCE geoid model based on the recent GOCE Global Geopotential Model (GGM), as well as EGM2008, using GPS levelling data over East Malaysia, i.e. Sabah and Sarawak. The satellite GGMs selected in this study are the GOCE GGM models which include GOCE04S, TIM_R5 and SPW_R4, and the EGM2008 model. To assess these models, the geoid heights from these GGMs are compared to the local geometric geoid height. The GGM geoid heights was derived using EGMLAB1 software and the geometric geoid height was computed by available GPS levelling information obtained from the Department Survey and Mapping Malaysia. Generally, the GOCE models performed better than EGM2008 over East Malaysia and the best fit GOCE model for this region is the TIM_R5 model. The TIM_R5 GOCE model demonstrated the lowest R.M.S. of ± 16.5 cm over Sarawak, comparatively. For further improvement, this model should be combined with the local gravity data for optimum geoid modelling over East Malaysia.

Projecting climate change impacts on hydrology: the potential role of daily GCM output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, E. P.; Hidalgo, H. G.; Das, T.; Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D.

2008-12-01

A primary challenge facing resource managers in accommodating climate change is determining the range and uncertainty in regional and local climate projections. This is especially important for assessing changes in extreme events, which will drive many of the more severe impacts of a changed climate. Since global climate models (GCMs) produce output at a spatial scale incompatible with local impact assessment, different techniques have evolved to downscale GCM output so locally important climate features are expressed in the projections. We compared skill and hydrologic projections using two statistical downscaling methods and a distributed hydrology model. The downscaling methods are the constructed analogues (CA) and the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD). CA uses daily GCM output, and can thus capture GCM projections for changing extreme event occurrence, while BCSD uses monthly output and statistically generates historical daily sequences. We evaluate the hydrologic impacts projected using downscaled climate (from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as a surrogate GCM) for the late 20th century with both methods, comparing skill in projecting soil moisture, snow pack, and streamflow at key locations in the Western United States. We include an assessment of a new method for correcting for GCM biases in a hybrid method combining the most important characteristics of both methods.

Fatigue Technology Assessment and Strategies for Fatigue Avoidance in Marine Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-01

time history. xii MODELING ERROR (Xme) : Typically defined as the ratio of actual behavior of the structure to the one predicted by the model. It is...and temperature changes may be important to fatigue in a local component, these loadings are not a major concern in the global behavior of typical...Reference 3.1) to assess fracture behavior in a low toughness HAZ indicated that a small low- toughness area in the HAZ can be masked by the higher

A multi-scale metrics approach to forest fragmentation for Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Eunyoung, E-mail: eykim@kei.re.kr; Song, Wonkyong, E-mail: wksong79@gmail.com; Lee, Dongkun, E-mail: dklee7@snu.ac.kr

Forests are becoming severely fragmented as a result of land development. South Korea has responded to changing community concerns about environmental issues. The nation has developed and is extending a broad range of tools for use in environmental management. Although legally mandated environmental compliance requirements in South Korea have been implemented to predict and evaluate the impacts of land-development projects, these legal instruments are often insufficient to assess the subsequent impact of development on the surrounding forests. It is especially difficult to examine impacts on multiple (e.g., regional and local) scales in detail. Forest configuration and size, including forest fragmentationmore » by land development, are considered on a regional scale. Moreover, forest structure and composition, including biodiversity, are considered on a local scale in the Environmental Impact Assessment process. Recently, the government amended the Environmental Impact Assessment Act, including the SEA, EIA, and small-scale EIA, to require an integrated approach. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to establish an impact assessment system that minimizes the impacts of land development using an approach that is integrated across multiple scales. This study focused on forest fragmentation due to residential development and road construction sites in selected Congestion Restraint Zones (CRZs) in the Greater Seoul Area of South Korea. Based on a review of multiple-scale impacts, this paper integrates models that assess the impacts of land development on forest ecosystems. The applicability of the integrated model for assessing impacts on forest ecosystems through the SEIA process is considered. On a regional scale, it is possible to evaluate the location and size of a land-development project by considering aspects of forest fragmentation, such as the stability of the forest structure and the degree of fragmentation. On a local scale, land-development projects should consider the distances at which impacts occur in the vicinity of the forest ecosystem, and these considerations should include the impacts on forest vegetation and bird species. Impacts can be mitigated by considering the distances at which these influences occur. In particular, this paper presents an integrated environmental impact assessment system to be applied in the SEIA process. The integrated assessment system permits the assessment of the cumulative impacts of land development on multiple scales. -- Highlights: • The model is to assess the impact of forest fragmentation across multiple scales. • The paper suggests the type of forest fragmentation on a regional scale. • The type can be used to evaluate the location and size of a land development. • The paper shows the influence distance of land development on a local scale. • The distance can be used to mitigate the impact at an EIA process.« less

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

The case for local food in sustainable food-energy-water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, J. E.; Zumkehr, A. L.; Yang, Y.

2017-12-01

Local food systems, which are characterized by foodsheds with small distances between production and consumption ( 100 km), are currently experiencing explosive growth. Local food has largely been assessed within the context of transportation energy. While the effects of local food systems on transportation energy are well studied, broader implications of localization on the food-energy-water nexus are not. Furthermore, little is known about the potential for local food to scale beyond niche markets and meet a significant fraction of total food demand. Here we estimate the upper potential for all existing croplands to meet total U.S. food demand through local food networks. Our spatially explicit land-use model simulates the years 1850 through 2000 and accounts for a wide range of foodshed areas, diets, food waste, population distributions, cropland areas, and crop yields. While we find that the foodshed potential has declined in time, our results also demonstrate an unexpectedly large potential at present for supporting as much as 82% of national food demand within a 50 mile foodshed radius. The decline is associated with extreme pressures from demographic and agronomic trends that if continued could significantly undermine recent national policies focused on food localization. We then apply a life-cycle assessment approach to show that for some crops, irrigation could contribute up to 50% of the cradle-to-gate carbon emissions, thus they may benefit from food localization making use of water from wastewater treatment plants. Our results also show that local food could reduce the water footprint of lettuce by 50%. Our study suggests that exploring future scenarios, beyond assessing historical outcomes, is critical if food-energy-water research is to support sustainable decision making.

Massive integration of diverse protein quality assessment methods to improve template based modeling in CASP11.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Adhikari, Badri; Li, Jilong; Cheng, Jianlin

2016-09-01

Model evaluation and selection is an important step and a big challenge in template-based protein structure prediction. Individual model quality assessment methods designed for recognizing some specific properties of protein structures often fail to consistently select good models from a model pool because of their limitations. Therefore, combining multiple complimentary quality assessment methods is useful for improving model ranking and consequently tertiary structure prediction. Here, we report the performance and analysis of our human tertiary structure predictor (MULTICOM) based on the massive integration of 14 diverse complementary quality assessment methods that was successfully benchmarked in the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques of Protein Structure prediction (CASP11). The predictions of MULTICOM for 39 template-based domains were rigorously assessed by six scoring metrics covering global topology of Cα trace, local all-atom fitness, side chain quality, and physical reasonableness of the model. The results show that the massive integration of complementary, diverse single-model and multi-model quality assessment methods can effectively leverage the strength of single-model methods in distinguishing quality variation among similar good models and the advantage of multi-model quality assessment methods of identifying reasonable average-quality models. The overall excellent performance of the MULTICOM predictor demonstrates that integrating a large number of model quality assessment methods in conjunction with model clustering is a useful approach to improve the accuracy, diversity, and consequently robustness of template-based protein structure prediction. Proteins 2016; 84(Suppl 1):247-259. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessment of Traffic-Related Noise in Three Cities in the United States

PubMed Central

Lee, Eunice Y.; Jerrett, Michael; Ross, Zev; Coogan, Patricia F.; Seto, Edmund Y. W.

2014-01-01

Background Traffic-related noise is a growing public health concern in developing and developed countries due to increasing vehicle traffic. Epidemiological studies have reported associations between noise exposure and high blood pressure, increased risk of hypertension and heart disease, and stress induced by sleep disturbance and annoyance. These findings motivate the need for regular noise assessments within urban areas. This paper assesses the relationships between traffic and noise in three US cities. Methods Noise measurements were conducted in downtown areas in three cities in the United States: Atlanta, Los Angeles, and New York City. For each city, we measured ambient noise levels, and assessed their correlation with simultaneously measured vehicle counts, and with traffic data provided by local Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO). Additionally, measured noise levels were compared to noise levels predicted by the Federal Highway Administration’s Traffic Noise Model using (1) simultaneously measured traffic counts or (2) MPO traffic data sources as model input. Results We found substantial variations in traffic and noise within and between cities. Total number of vehicle counts explained a substantial amount of variation in measured ambient noise in Atlanta (78%), Los Angeles (58%), and New York City (62%). Modeled noise levels were moderately correlated with measured noise levels when observed traffic counts were used as model input. Weaker correlations were found when MPO traffic data was used as model input. Conclusions Ambient noise levels measured in all three cities were correlated with traffic data, highlighting the importance of traffic planning in mitigating noise-related health effects. Model performance was sensitive to the traffic data used as input. Future noise studies that use modeled noise estimates should evaluate traffic data quality and should ideally include other factors, such as local roadway, building, and meteorological characteristics. PMID:24792415

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luizza, Matthew; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

2016-01-01

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

The relative roles of environment, history and local dispersal in controlling the distributions of common tree and shrub species in a tropical forest landscape, Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Svenning, J.-C.; Engelbrecht, B.M.J.; Kinner, D.A.; Kursar, T.A.; Stallard, R.F.; Wright, S.J.

2006-01-01

We used regression models and information-theoretic model selection to assess the relative importance of environment, local dispersal and historical contingency as controls of the distributions of 26 common plant species in tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We censused eighty-eight 0.09-ha plots scattered across the landscape. Environmental control, local dispersal and historical contingency were represented by environmental variables (soil moisture, slope, soil type, distance to shore, old-forest presence), a spatial autoregressive parameter (??), and four spatial trend variables, respectively. We built regression models, representing all combinations of the three hypotheses, for each species. The probability that the best model included the environmental variables, spatial trend variables and ?? averaged 33%, 64% and 50% across the study species, respectively. The environmental variables, spatial trend variables, ??, and a simple intercept model received the strongest support for 4, 15, 5 and 2 species, respectively. Comparing the model results to information on species traits showed that species with strong spatial trends produced few and heavy diaspores, while species with strong soil moisture relationships were particularly drought-sensitive. In conclusion, history and local dispersal appeared to be the dominant controls of the distributions of common plant species on BCI. Copyright ?? 2006 Cambridge University Press.

Assessment and Mitigation of PM pollution in the border regions of Austria and Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uhrner, Ulrich; Reifeltshammer, Rafael; Lackner, Bettina; Forkel, Renate; Sturm, Peter

2017-04-01

Many cities, towns and regions located at the southern fringe of the Alps face remarkably high PM levels particularly during the winter period. The project PMinter aimed 1) to analyse the air quality in S-Styria, S-Carinthia and N-Slovenia, 2) to evaluate local and regional measures to develop effective air quality management plans and finally 3) to support a sustainable improvement of air quality in the project region. Using wood for residential heating is very popular in Austria and in Slovenia. To assess the contribution from wood smoke to the total PM burden and the impact of regional and large scale transport as well as the impact of secondary aerosols were major goals of PMinter. Due to the complex terrain air quality and exposure assessment is challenging. To resolve sources which are located in valleys and basins, emissions were computed or processed on 1 km x 1 km resolution for the entire program area. A new combined model approach was developed and tested successfully using a state-of-the-art CTM (WRF/Chem) on the regional scale and the Lagrangian particle model GRAL on the local scale. A detailed analysis and comparisons with measurements and regional/local scale scenario simulations were carried out. Residential heating using wood was identified as the major source and PM component dominant on the "local scale" ( 10 km), secondary inorganic aerosol was the dominant PM component on the regional scale ( 10 km - 150 km) and above. Various mitigation scenarios for PM were computed. A "local" scenario where individual heating facilities using solid fuels were replaced by district heating and a regional scenario with 35% reduced ammonia emissions from agriculture proved to be most effective.

HARMONY: a server for the assessment of protein structures

PubMed Central

Pugalenthi, G.; Shameer, K.; Srinivasan, N.; Sowdhamini, R.

2006-01-01

Protein structure validation is an important step in computational modeling and structure determination. Stereochemical assessment of protein structures examine internal parameters such as bond lengths and Ramachandran (φ,ψ) angles. Gross structure prediction methods such as inverse folding procedure and structure determination especially at low resolution can sometimes give rise to models that are incorrect due to assignment of misfolds or mistracing of electron density maps. Such errors are not reflected as strain in internal parameters. HARMONY is a procedure that examines the compatibility between the sequence and the structure of a protein by assigning scores to individual residues and their amino acid exchange patterns after considering their local environments. Local environments are described by the backbone conformation, solvent accessibility and hydrogen bonding patterns. We are now providing HARMONY through a web server such that users can submit their protein structure files and, if required, the alignment of homologous sequences. Scores are mapped on the structure for subsequent examination that is useful to also recognize regions of possible local errors in protein structures. HARMONY server is located at PMID:16844999

Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Nicholas P.; Pierre, Caroline

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including local environmental disturbances, moderate rates of wind-driven soil erosion and dust emission. These human-dust cycle interactions impact ecosystems and agricultural production, air quality, human health, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. While the impacts of land use activities and land management on aeolian processes can be profound, the interactions are often complex and assessments of anthropogenic dust loads at all scales remain highly uncertain. Here, we critically review the drivers of anthropogenic dust emission and current evaluation approaches. We then identify and describe opportunities to: (1) develop new conceptual frameworks and interdisciplinary approaches that draw on ecological state-and-transition models to improve the accuracy and relevance of assessments of anthropogenic dust emissions; (2) improve model fidelity and capacity for change detection to quantify anthropogenic impacts on aeolian processes; and (3) enhance field research and monitoring networks to support dust model applications to evaluate the impacts of disturbance processes on local to global-scale wind erosion and dust emissions.

Deep supervised dictionary learning for no-reference image quality assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yuge; Liu, Xuesong; Tian, Xiang; Zhou, Fan; Chen, Yaowu; Jiang, Rongxin

2018-03-01

We propose a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) for general no-reference image quality assessment (NR-IQA), i.e., accurate prediction of image quality without a reference image. The proposed model consists of three components such as a local feature extractor that is a fully CNN, an encoding module with an inherent dictionary that aggregates local features to output a fixed-length global quality-aware image representation, and a regression module that maps the representation to an image quality score. Our model can be trained in an end-to-end manner, and all of the parameters, including the weights of the convolutional layers, the dictionary, and the regression weights, are simultaneously learned from the loss function. In addition, the model can predict quality scores for input images of arbitrary sizes in a single step. We tested our method on commonly used image quality databases and showed that its performance is comparable with that of state-of-the-art general-purpose NR-IQA algorithms.

Assessing Tuition- and Debt-Free Higher Education. NASFAA Task Force Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators, 2017

2017-01-01

The Assessing Tuition- and Debt-Free Higher Education Task Force was convened in July 2016. Charged by the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators's (NASFAA's) Board of Directors with evaluating the existing landscape of state and local promise programs with a focus on scaling such models to the national level, the task force…

A Modeling System to Examine Near-Road and Near-Source Air Toxics for Community-Scale Cumulative Assessments.

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative assessments consider a range of potential stressors that might impact the health of a receptor, such as a local neighborhood or wetland area. When receptors are located near pollution sources such as highways or ports (within 500-1,000 m), then they could be at risk of...

Representing Micro-Macro Linkages by Actor-Based Dynamic Network Models

PubMed Central

Snijders, Tom A.B.; Steglich, Christian E.G.

2014-01-01

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of generalized linear statistical models they aim to be realistic detailed representations of network dynamics in empirical data sets. Statistical parallels to micro-macro considerations can be found in the estimation of parameters determining local actor behavior from empirical data, and the assessment of goodness of fit from the correspondence with network-level descriptives. This article studies several network-level consequences of dynamic actor-based models applied to represent cross-sectional network data. Two examples illustrate how network-level characteristics can be obtained as emergent features implied by micro-specifications of actor-based models. PMID:25960578

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

An Overview of Recent Building Downwash Research at EPA/ORD (2017 Regional, State, and Local Modelers' Workshop Presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Knowing the fate of effluent from an industrial stack is important for assessing its impact on human health. AERMOD is one of several Gaussian plume models containing algorithms to evaluate the effect of buildings on the movement of the effluent from a stack. This presentation ...

A field and modeling study to assess the potential mitigation of near-road pollution by vegetative and structural barriers

EPA Science Inventory

Recent modeling and field studies have demonstrated that roadside structures such as noise barriers or tree stands, may significantly affect the local-scale transport of on-road emissions to areas located adjacent to major roadways. When directly downwind of a major roadway, conc...

Global and Local Contributions to Mercury Concentrations in Lake Michigan and Impact on Fish Consumption Advisories

EPA Science Inventory

LM2-Mercury, a mercury species mass balance model developed for Lake Michigan, was used to assess mercury cycling in Lake Michigan. A calibrated model (including a hindcast) was used to predict mercury concentrations in the lake based on various sensitivity and management scenari...

Subgrid geoelectric field specification for GIC modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butala, M.; Grawe, M.; Kamalabadi, F.; Makela, J. J.

2017-12-01

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) result from surface geomagnetic field (ěc{B}) variation driven by space weather disturbances. For the most intense disturbances, the consequences can range from power grid instability to even widespread failure. Modeling GICs to assess vulnerability requires the specification of the surface geoelectric field (ěc{E}) at all spatial locations coincident with the electric power system. In this study, we investigate how to best reproduce ěc{E} given the available sparse, irregularly spaced magnetometer measurements of ěc{B} and suitable electromagnetic transfer functions (EMTFs) to transform the local ěc{B} to ěc{E}. The assessment is made against ground truth from publicly available ěc{E} measurements provided by the EarthScope magnetotelluric (MT) array, a set of 7 fixed and several transportable joint ěc{B} and ěc{E} sensors. The scope of this study spans several dimensions: geomagnetic disturbance intensity, spatial interpolation scheme, and EMTF type, i.e., 1-D models based on studies of local geology and 3-D models derived from the EarthScope MT data.

3D cardiac wall thickening assessment for acute myocardial infarction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, A.; Chan, B. T.; Lim, E.; Liew, Y. M.

2017-06-01

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the most severe form of coronary artery disease leading to localized myocardial injury and therefore irregularities in the cardiac wall contractility. Studies have found very limited differences in global indices (such as ejection fraction, myocardial mass and volume) between healthy subjects and AMI patients, and therefore suggested regional assessment. Regional index, specifically cardiac wall thickness (WT) and thickening is closely related to cardiac function and could reveal regional abnormality due to AMI. In this study, we developed a 3D wall thickening assessment method to identify regional wall contractility dysfunction due to localized myocardial injury from infarction. Wall thickness and thickening were assessed from 3D personalized cardiac models reconstructed from cine MRI images by fitting inscribed sphere between endocardial and epicardial wall. The thickening analysis was performed in 5 patients and 3 healthy subjects and the results were compared against the gold standard 2D late-gadolinium-enhanced (LGE) images for infarct localization. The notable finding of this study is the highly accurate estimation and visual representation of the infarct size and location in 3D. This study provides clinicians with an intuitive way to visually and qualitatively assess regional cardiac wall dysfunction due to infarction in AMI patients.

Central and rear-edge populations can be equally vulnerable to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Scott; Wernberg, Thomas; Arackal Joy, Bijo; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Campbell, Alexandra H.

2015-12-01

Rear (warm) edge populations are often considered more susceptible to warming than central (cool) populations because of the warmer ambient temperatures they experience, but this overlooks the potential for local variation in thermal tolerances. Here we provide conceptual models illustrating how sensitivity to warming is affected throughout a species' geographical range for locally adapted and non-adapted populations. We test these models for a range-contracting seaweed using observations from a marine heatwave and a 12-month experiment, translocating seaweeds among central, present and historic range edge locations. Growth, reproductive development and survivorship display different temperature thresholds among central and rear-edge populations, but share a 2.5 °C anomaly threshold. Range contraction, therefore, reflects variation in local anomalies rather than differences in absolute temperatures. This demonstrates that warming sensitivity can be similar throughout a species geographical range and highlights the importance of incorporating local adaptation and acclimatization into climate change vulnerability assessments.

Focal activation of primary visual cortex following supra-choroidal electrical stimulation of the retina: Intrinsic signal imaging and linear model analysis.

PubMed

Cloherty, Shaun L; Hietanen, Markus A; Suaning, Gregg J; Ibbotson, Michael R

2010-01-01

We performed optical intrinsic signal imaging of cat primary visual cortex (Area 17 and 18) while delivering bipolar electrical stimulation to the retina by way of a supra-choroidal electrode array. Using a general linear model (GLM) analysis we identified statistically significant (p < 0.01) activation in a localized region of cortex following supra-threshold electrical stimulation at a single retinal locus. (1) demonstrate that intrinsic signal imaging combined with linear model analysis provides a powerful tool for assessing cortical responses to prosthetic stimulation, and (2) confirm that supra-choroidal electrical stimulation can achieve localized activation of the cortex consistent with focal activation of the retina.

Soil geohazard mapping for improved asset management of UK local roads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pritchard, O. G.; Hallett, S. H.; Farewell, T. S.

2015-09-01

Unclassified roads comprise 60 % of the road network in the United Kingdom (UK). The resilience of this locally important network is declining. It is considered by the Institution of Civil Engineers to be "at risk" and is ranked 26th in the world. Many factors contribute to the degradation and ultimate failure of particular road sections. However, several UK local authorities have identified that in drought conditions, road sections founded upon shrink-swell susceptible clay soils undergo significant deterioration compared with sections on non-susceptible soils. This arises from the local road network having little, if any, structural foundations. Consequently, droughts in East Anglia have resulted in millions of pounds of damage, leading authorities to seek emergency governmental funding. This paper assesses the use of soil-related geohazard assessments in providing soil-informed maintenance strategies for the asset management of the locally important road network of the UK. A case study draws upon the UK administrative county of Lincolnshire, where road assessment data have been analysed against mapped clay-subsidence risk. This reveals a statistically significant relationship between road condition and susceptible clay soils. Furthermore, incorporation of UKCP09 future climate projections within the geohazard models has highlighted roads likely to be at future risk of clay-related subsidence.

Soil geohazard mapping for improved asset management of UK local roads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pritchard, O. G.; Hallett, S. H.; Farewell, T. S.

2015-05-01

Unclassified roads comprise 60% of the road network in the United Kingdom (UK). The resilience of this locally important network is declining. It is considered by the Institution of Civil Engineers to be "at risk" and is ranked 26th in the world. Many factors contribute to the degradation and ultimate failure of particular road sections. However, several UK local authorities have identified that in drought conditions, road sections founded upon shrink/swell susceptible clay soils undergo significant deterioration compared with sections on non-susceptible soils. This arises from the local road network having little, if any structural foundations. Consequently, droughts in East Anglia have resulted in millions of pounds of damage, leading authorities to seek emergency governmental funding. This paper assesses the use of soil-related geohazard assessments in providing soil-informed maintenance strategies for the asset management of the locally important road network of the UK. A case study draws upon the UK administrative county of Lincolnshire, where road assessment data have been analysed against mapped clay-subsidence risk. This reveals a statistically significant relationship between road condition and susceptible clay soils. Furthermore, incorporation of UKCP09 future climate projections within the geohazard models has highlighted roads likely to be at future risk of clay-related subsidence.

Origin of Tumor Recurrence After Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy for Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raktoe, Sawan A.S.; Dehnad, Homan, E-mail: h.dehnad@umcutrecht.nl; Raaijmakers, Cornelis P.J.

Purpose: To model locoregional recurrences of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC) treated with primary intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) in order to find the origins from which recurrences grow and relate their location to original target volume borders. Methods and Materials: This was a retrospective analysis of OSCC treated with primary IMRT between January 2002 and December 2009. Locoregional recurrence volumes were delineated on diagnostic scans and coregistered rigidly with treatment planning computed tomography scans. Each recurrence was analyzed with two methods. First, overlapping volumes of a recurrence and original target were measured ('volumetric approach') and assessed as 'in-field', 'marginal',more » or 'out-field'. Then, the center of mass (COM) of a recurrence volume was assumed as the origin from where a recurrence expanded, the COM location was compared with original target volume borders and assessed as 'in-field', 'marginal', or 'out-field'. Results: One hundred thirty-one OSCC were assessed. For all patients alive at the end of follow-up, the mean follow-up time was 40 months (range, 12-83 months); 2 patients were lost to follow-up. The locoregional recurrence rate was 27%. Of all recurrences, 51% were local, 23% were regional, and 26% had both local and regional recurrences. Of all recurrences, 74% had imaging available for assessment. Regarding volumetric analysis of local recurrences, 15% were in-field gross tumor volume (GTV), and 65% were in-field clinical tumor volume (CTV). Using the COM approach, we found that 70% of local recurrences were in-field GTV and 90% were in-field CTV. Of the regional recurrences, 25% were volumetrically in-field GTV, and using the COM approach, we found 54% were in-field GTV. The COM of local out-field CTV recurrences were maximally 16 mm outside CTV borders, whereas for regional recurrences, this was 17 mm. Conclusions: The COM model is practical and specific for recurrence assessment. Most recurrences originated in the GTV. This suggests radioresistance in certain tumor parts.« less

Water Quality Assessment in the Vouga Catchment (Portugal) through the Integration of Hydrologic Modeling, Economic Valuation, and Optimization Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawtree, Daniel; Julich, Stefan; Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Feger, Karl-Heinz

2016-04-01

Hydrologic model assessments of the impacts of land-cover / use change (LCLUC) are fundamental for the development of catchment management plans, which are increasingly needed for meeting water quality standards (i.e. Water Framework Directive). These assessments can be difficult to conduct at the spatial scale required for such plans, due to data limitations and the challenge of up-scaling from field / small scale studies to larger regions. Furthermore, such hydrologic assessments are of limited practical use if the financial impacts of any potential land-cover / management changes on local stakeholders are adequately quantified and taken into planning consideration. To address these challenges, this study presents an approach that integrates hydrologic modeling, economic valuation, and landscape optimization methods. This approach is applied to the Vouga catchment, a large (2,298 km^2) mixed land-use catchment in north-central Portugal. The Vouga has high nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) impacts in a number of reaches, which have negative impacts on downstream wetlands and groundwater supplies. To examine potential improvements to water quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated over a five period (2002 - 2007) to establish the baseline hydrologic and nutrient fluxes. This calibration relies upon the up-scaling of findings from previous field studies (on vegetation and soils), hydrologic assessments, and modeling studies. The agricultural income for local stakeholders was estimated from existing land-cover and management approaches is made, to establish the baseline financial conditions. An optimization algorithm is then applied to the baseline scenario using both the biophysical and financial information, which seeks to determine various (most) optimal states. The preliminary results from this work are presented, and the advantages and challenges of using such an approach for scenario analysis for catchment management are discussed

Cross-site comparison of land-use decision-making and its consequences across land systems with a generalized agent-based model.

PubMed

Magliocca, Nicholas R; Brown, Daniel G; Ellis, Erle C

2014-01-01

Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement.

Cross-Site Comparison of Land-Use Decision-Making and Its Consequences across Land Systems with a Generalized Agent-Based Model

PubMed Central

Magliocca, Nicholas R.; Brown, Daniel G.; Ellis, Erle C.

2014-01-01

Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement. PMID:24489696

Assessing measurement error in surveys using latent class analysis: application to self-reported illicit drug use in data from the Iranian Mental Health Survey.

PubMed

Khalagi, Kazem; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Nourijelyani, Keramat; Amin-Esmaeili, Masoumeh; Hajebi, Ahmad; Sharif, Vandad; Radgoodarzi, Reza; Hefazi, Mitra; Motevalian, Abbas

2016-01-01

Latent class analysis (LCA) is a method of assessing and correcting measurement error in surveys. The local independence assumption in LCA assumes that indicators are independent from each other condition on the latent variable. Violation of this assumption leads to unreliable results. We explored this issue by using LCA to estimate the prevalence of illicit drug use in the Iranian Mental Health Survey. The following three indicators were included in the LCA models: five or more instances of using any illicit drug in the past 12 months (indicator A), any use of any illicit drug in the past 12 months (indicator B), and the self-perceived need of treatment services or having received treatment for a substance use disorder in the past 12 months (indicator C). Gender was also used in all LCA models as a grouping variable. One LCA model using indicators A and B, as well as 10 different LCA models using indicators A, B, and C, were fitted to the data. The three models that had the best fit to the data included the following correlations between indicators: (AC and AB), (AC), and (AC, BC, and AB). The estimated prevalence of illicit drug use based on these three models was 28.9%, 6.2% and 42.2%, respectively. None of these models completely controlled for violation of the local independence assumption. In order to perform unbiased estimations using the LCA approach, the factors violating the local independence assumption (behaviorally correlated error, bivocality, and latent heterogeneity) should be completely taken into account in all models using well-known methods.

Performance assessment and parameterization of the SWAP-WOFOST model for peat soil under agricultural use in northern Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertram, Sascha; Bechtold, Michel; Hendriks, Rob; Piayda, Arndt; Regina, Kristiina; Myllys, Merja; Tiemeyer, Bärbel

2017-04-01

Peat soils form a major share of soil suitable for agriculture in northern Europe. Successful agricultural production depends on hydrological and pedological conditions, local climate and agricultural management. Climate change impact assessment on food production and development of mitigation and adaptation strategies require reliable yield forecasts under given emission scenarios. Coupled soil hydrology - crop growth models, driven by regionalized future climate scenarios are a valuable tool and widely used for this purpose. Parameterization on local peat soil conditions and crop breed or grassland specie performance, however, remains a major challenge. The subject of this study is to evaluate the performance and sensitivity of the SWAP-WOFOST coupled soil hydrology and plant growth model with respect to the application on peat soils under different regional conditions across northern Europe. Further, the parameterization of region-specific crop and grass species is discussed. First results of the model application and parameterization at deep peat sites in southern Finland are presented. The model performed very well in reproducing two years of observed, daily ground water level data on four hydrologically contrasting sites. Naturally dry and wet sites could be modelled with the same performance as sites with active water table management by regulated drains in order to improve peat conservation. A simultaneous multi-site calibration scheme was used to estimate plant growth parameters of the local oat breed. Cross-site validation of the modelled yields against two years of observations proved the robustness of the chosen parameter set and gave no indication of possible overparameterization. This study proves the suitability of the coupled SWAP-WOFOST model for the prediction of crop yields and water table dynamics of peat soils in agricultural use under given climate conditions.

Implementation of local grid refinement (LGR) for the Lake Michigan Basin regional groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, C.J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating water availability and use within the Great Lakes Basin. This is a pilot effort to develop new techniques and methods to aid in the assessment of water availability. As part of the pilot program, a regional groundwater-flow model for the Lake Michigan Basin was developed using SEAWAT-2000. The regional model was used as a framework for assessing local-scale water availability through grid-refinement techniques. Two grid-refinement techniques, telescopic mesh refinement and local grid refinement, were used to illustrate the capability of the regional model to evaluate local-scale problems. An intermediate model was developed in central Michigan spanning an area of 454 square miles (mi2) using telescopic mesh refinement. Within the intermediate model, a smaller local model covering an area of 21.7 mi2 was developed and simulated using local grid refinement. Recharge was distributed in space and time using a daily output from a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance method. The soil-water-balance method derived recharge estimates from temperature and precipitation data output from an atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model. The particular atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model used, simulated climate change caused by high global greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere. The surface-water network simulated in the regional model was refined and simulated using a streamflow-routing package for MODFLOW. The refined models were used to demonstrate streamflow depletion and potential climate change using five scenarios. The streamflow-depletion scenarios include (1) natural conditions (no pumping), (2) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in surficial glacial deposits, (3) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in deeper glacial deposits, and (4) a pumping well near a stream; the well is open to a deep bedrock aquifer. Results indicated that a range of 59 to 50 percent of the water pumped originated from the stream for the shallow glacial and deep bedrock pumping scenarios, respectively. The difference in streamflow reduction between the shallow and deep pumping scenarios was compensated for in the deep well by deriving more water from regional sources. The climate-change scenario only simulated natural conditions from 1991-2044, so there was no pumping stress simulated. Streamflows were calculated for the simulated period and indicated that recharge over the period generally increased from the start of the simulation until approximately 2017, and decreased from then to the end of the simulation. Streamflow was highly correlated with recharge so that the lowest streamflows occurred in the later stress periods of the model when recharge was lowest.

A class of covariate-dependent spatiotemporal covariance functions

PubMed Central

Reich, Brian J; Eidsvik, Jo; Guindani, Michele; Nail, Amy J; Schmidt, Alexandra M.

2014-01-01

In geostatistics, it is common to model spatially distributed phenomena through an underlying stationary and isotropic spatial process. However, these assumptions are often untenable in practice because of the influence of local effects in the correlation structure. Therefore, it has been of prolonged interest in the literature to provide flexible and effective ways to model non-stationarity in the spatial effects. Arguably, due to the local nature of the problem, we might envision that the correlation structure would be highly dependent on local characteristics of the domain of study, namely the latitude, longitude and altitude of the observation sites, as well as other locally defined covariate information. In this work, we provide a flexible and computationally feasible way for allowing the correlation structure of the underlying processes to depend on local covariate information. We discuss the properties of the induced covariance functions and discuss methods to assess its dependence on local covariate information by means of a simulation study and the analysis of data observed at ozone-monitoring stations in the Southeast United States. PMID:24772199

The effect of the PROSPER partnership model on cultivating local stakeholder knowledge of evidence-based programs: a five-year longitudinal study of 28 communities.

PubMed

Crowley, D Max; Greenberg, Mark T; Feinberg, Mark E; Spoth, Richard L; Redmond, Cleve R

2012-02-01

A substantial challenge in improving public health is how to facilitate the local adoption of evidence-based interventions (EBIs). To do so, an important step is to build local stakeholders' knowledge and decision-making skills regarding the adoption and implementation of EBIs. One EBI delivery system, called PROSPER (PROmoting School-community-university Partnerships to Enhance Resilience), has effectively mobilized community prevention efforts, implemented prevention programming with quality, and consequently decreased youth substance abuse. While these results are encouraging, another objective is to increase local stakeholder knowledge of best practices for adoption, implementation and evaluation of EBIs. Using a mixed methods approach, we assessed local stakeholder knowledge of these best practices over 5 years, in 28 intervention and control communities. Results indicated that the PROSPER partnership model led to significant increases in expert knowledge regarding the selection, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions. Findings illustrate the limited programming knowledge possessed by members of local prevention efforts, the difficulty of complete knowledge transfer, and highlight one method for cultivating that knowledge.

Empirical Model of Precipitating Ion Oval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, Jerry

2017-10-01

In this brief technical report published maps of ion integral flux are used to constrain an empirical model of the precipitating ion oval. The ion oval is modeled as a Gaussian function of ionospheric latitude that depends on local time and the Kp geomagnetic index. The three parameters defining this function are the centroid latitude, width, and amplitude. The local time dependences of these three parameters are approximated by Fourier series expansions whose coefficients are constrained by the published ion maps. The Kp dependence of each coefficient is modeled by a linear fit. Optimization of the number of terms in the expansion is achieved via minimization of the global standard deviation between the model and the published ion map at each Kp. The empirical model is valid near the peak flux of the auroral oval; inside its centroid region the model reproduces the published ion maps with standard deviations of less than 5% of the peak integral flux. On the subglobal scale, average local errors (measured as a fraction of the point-to-point integral flux) are below 30% in the centroid region. Outside its centroid region the model deviates significantly from the H89 integral flux maps. The model's performance is assessed by comparing it with both local and global data from a 17 April 2002 substorm event. The model can reproduce important features of the macroscale auroral region but none of its subglobal structure, and not immediately following a substorm.

A model for food and stimulus changes that signal time-based contingency changes.

PubMed

Cowie, Sarah; Davison, Michael; Elliffe, Douglas

2014-11-01

When the availability of reinforcers depends on time since an event, time functions as a discriminative stimulus. Behavioral control by elapsed time is generally weak, but may be enhanced by added stimuli that act as additional time markers. The present paper assessed the effect of brief and continuous added stimuli on control by time-based changes in the reinforcer differential, using a procedure in which the local reinforcer ratio reversed at a fixed time after the most recent reinforcer delivery. Local choice was enhanced by the presentation of the brief stimuli, even when the stimulus change signalled only elapsed time, but not the local reinforcer ratio. The effect of the brief stimulus presentations on choice decreased as a function of time since the most recent stimulus change. We compared the ability of several versions of a model of local choice to describe these data. The data were best described by a model which assumed that error in discriminating the local reinforcer ratio arose from imprecise discrimination of reinforcers in both time and space, suggesting that timing behavior is controlled not only by discrimination elapsed time, but by discrimination of the reinforcer differential in time. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Psychometric Properties of the Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis Score and the Myasthenia Gravis Composite Scale.

PubMed

Barnett, Carolina; Merkies, Ingemar S J; Katzberg, Hans; Bril, Vera

2015-09-02

The Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis Score and the Myasthenia Gravis Composite are two commonly used outcome measures in Myasthenia Gravis. So far, their measurement properties have not been compared, so we aimed to study their psychometric properties using the Rasch model. 251 patients with stable myasthenia gravis were assessed with both scales, and 211 patients returned for a second assessment. We studied fit to the Rasch model at the first visit, and compared item fit, thresholds, differential item functioning, local dependence, person separation index, and tests for unidimensionality. We also assessed test-retest reliability and estimated the Minimal Detectable Change. Neither scale fit the Rasch model (X2p <  0.05). The Myasthenia Gravis Composite had lower discrimination properties than the Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis Scale (Person Separation Index: 0.14 and 0.7). There was local dependence in both scales, as well as differential item functioning for ocular and generalized disease. Disordered thresholds were found in 6(60%) items of the Myasthenia Gravis Composite and in 4(31%) of the Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis Score. Both tools had adequate test-retest reliability (ICCs >0.8). The minimally detectable change was 4.9 points for the Myasthenia Gravis Composite and 4.3 points for the Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis Score. Neither scale fulfilled Rasch model expectations. The Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis Score has higher discrimination than the Myasthenia Gravis Composite. Both tools have items with disordered thresholds, differential item functioning and local dependency. There was evidence of multidimensionality in the QMGS. The minimal detectable change values are higher than previous studies on the minimal significant change. These findings might inform future modifications of these tools.

Application of a General Polytomous Testlet Model to the Reading Section of a Large-Scale English Language Assessment. Research Report. ETS RR-10-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Yanmei; Li, Shuhong; Wang, Lin

2010-01-01

Many standardized educational tests include groups of items based on a common stimulus, known as "testlets". Standard unidimensional item response theory (IRT) models are commonly used to model examinees' responses to testlet items. However, it is known that local dependence among testlet items can lead to biased item parameter estimates…

Local-Scale Exposure Assessment of Air Pollutants in Source-Impacted Neighborhoods in Detroit, MI (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vette, A. F.; Bereznicki, S.; Sobus, J.; Norris, G.; Williams, R.; Batterman, S.; Breen, M.; Isakov, V.; Perry, S.; Heist, D.; Community Action Against Asthma Steering Committee

2010-12-01

There has been growing interest in improving local-scale (< 1-km) exposure assessments to better understand the impact of local sources of air pollutants on adverse health outcomes. This paper describes two research studies aimed at understanding the impact of local sources contributing to spatial gradients at the neighborhood-scale in Detroit, MI. The first study, the Detroit Exposure and Aerosol Research Study (DEARS), was designed to assess the variability in concentrations of air pollutants derived from local and regional sources on community, neighborhood and personal exposures to air pollutants. Homes were identified at random in six different neighborhoods throughout Wayne County, MI that varied proximally to local industrial and mobile sources. Data were collected in summer (July-August) and winter (January-March) at a total of 135 homes over a three-year period (2004-2007). For five consecutive days at each home in summer and winter concurrent samples were collected of personal exposures, residential indoor and outdoor concentrations, and at a community monitoring site. The samples were analyzed for PM2.5 (mass and composition), air toxics, O3 and NO2. The second study is on-going and focuses on characterizing the impacts of mobile sources on near-road air quality and exposures among a cohort of asthmatic children. The Near-road EXposures and effects from Urban air pollutants Study (NEXUS) is designed to examine the relationship between near-road exposures to traffic-related air pollutants (BC, CO, NOx and PM components) and respiratory health of asthmatic children who live close to major roadways. The study will investigate the effects of traffic-associated exposures on exaggerated airway responses, biomolecular responses of inflammatory and oxidative stress, and how these exposures affect the frequency and severity of adverse respiratory outcomes. The study will also examine different near-road exposure assessment metrics, including monitoring and modeling techniques. Concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants will be measured and modeled indoors and outdoors of the children’s homes. Measurements will be made in a subset of homes each during fall 2010 and early spring 2011. High-time resolution measurements will be made of the chemical composition of traffic-related pollutants in the gas and particle phases adjacent to selected roadways. These data will be used to quantify the impact of traffic on the observed air quality data. Air pollutant dispersion and exposure models will be used in combination with measured data to estimate indoor/outdoor concentrations and personal exposures. Near-road spatial concentration patterns will be estimated at the children’s residences and schools across the study domain using dispersion modeling. These data will be used as input for an individual-level exposure model to estimate personal exposures from meteorology and questionnaire data on indoor sources, residential characteristics and operation, and time-location-activity patterns.

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

WRF Test on IBM BG/L:Toward High Performance Application to Regional Climate Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, H S

The effects of climate change will mostly be felt on local to regional scales (Solomon et al., 2007). To develop better forecast skill in regional climate change, an integrated multi-scale modeling capability (i.e., a pair of global and regional climate models) becomes crucially important in understanding and preparing for the impacts of climate change on the temporal and spatial scales that are critical to California's and nation's future environmental quality and economical prosperity. Accurate knowledge of detailed local impact on the water management system from climate change requires a resolution of 1km or so. To this end, a high performancemore » computing platform at the petascale appears to be an essential tool in providing such local scale information to formulate high quality adaptation strategies for local and regional climate change. As a key component of this modeling system at LLNL, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is implemented and tested on the IBM BG/L machine. The objective of this study is to examine the scaling feature of WRF on BG/L for the optimal performance, and to assess the numerical accuracy of WRF solution on BG/L.« less

Assessment of the amide-I local modes in gamma- and beta-turns of peptides.

PubMed

Wang, Jianping

2009-07-14

The amide-I local modes, mainly the C[double bond, length as m-dash]O stretching vibrations, form the structural basis of femtosecond 2D IR spectroscopy in characterizing backbone structures and dynamics of peptides and proteins. In this work, a density functional theory (DFT) level of computational assessment of the amide-I local modes in oligomers mostly in the turn conformations was carried out. It is shown that local mode properties, including transition frequencies and transition dipole magnitudes and orientations, are slightly conformational dependent. However, the distributions of these properties in the peptide oligomers are narrow and have mean values almost identical to those from an isolated peptide monomer, justifying the prevalent use of a uniform local mode in modeling the 1D and 2D IR spectra. In addition, it is shown that the transition dipole magnitude and orientation of the peptide monomer predicted by the DFT calculations can be well approximated by electrostatic potential-based transition charge schemes, e.g. Merz-Singh-Kollman, CHELP, as well as CHELPG.

A capacity-based approach for addressing ancillary care needs: implications for research in resource limited settings.

PubMed

Bright, Patricia L; Nelson, Robert M

2012-11-01

A paediatric clinical trial conducted in a developing country is likely to encounter conditions or illnesses in participants unrelated to the study. Since local healthcare resources may be inadequate to meet these needs, research clinicians may face the dilemma of deciding when to provide ancillary care and to what extent. The authors propose a model for identifying ancillary care obligations that draws on assessments of urgency, the capacity of the local healthcare infrastructure and the capacity of the research infrastructure. The model lends itself to a decision tree that can be adapted to the local context and resources so as to provide procedural guidance. This approach can help in planning and establishing organisational policies that govern the provision of ancillary care.

New Nuclear Emergency Prognosis system in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Ha; Jeong, Seung-Young; Park, Sang-Hyun; Lee, Kwan-Hee

2016-04-01

This paper reviews the status of assessment and prognosis system for nuclear emergency response in Korea, especially atmospheric dispersion model. The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) performs the regulation and radiological emergency preparedness of the nuclear facilities and radiation utilizations. Also, KINS has set up the "Radiological Emergency Technical Advisory Plan" and the associated procedures such as an emergency response manual in consideration of the IAEA Safety Standards GS-R-2, GS-G-2.0, and GS-G-2.1. The Radiological Emergency Technical Advisory Center (RETAC) organized in an emergency situation provides the technical advice on radiological emergency response. The "Atomic Computerized Technical Advisory System for nuclear emergency" (AtomCARE) has been developed to implement assessment and prognosis by RETAC. KINS developed Accident Dose Assessment and Monitoring (ADAMO) system in 2015 to reflect the lessons learned from Fukushima accident. It incorporates (1) the dose assessment on the entire Korean peninsula, Asia region, and global region, (2) multi-units accident assessment (3) applying new methodology of dose rate assessment and the source term estimation with inverse modeling, (4) dose assessment and monitoring with the environmental measurements result. The ADAMO is the renovated version of current FADAS of AtomCARE. The ADAMO increases the accuracy of the radioactive material dispersion with applying the LDAPS(Local Data Assimilation Prediction System, Spatial resolution: 1.5 km) and RDAPS(Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System, Spatial resolution: 12km) of weather prediction data, and performing the data assimilation of automatic weather system (AWS) data from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and data from the weather observation tower at NPP site. The prediction model of the radiological material dispersion is based on the set of the Lagrangian Particle model and Lagrangian Puff model. The dose estimation methodology incorporate the dose assessment methods of IAEA, WHO, and USNRC. The dose assessment result will express on the GIS (GIS (Geographic Information System) to provide to the local- governments and the central government. Acknowledgements This research has been supported by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission [Reference No.1305020-0315-SB110

Combining personal with social information facilitates host defences and explains why cuckoos should be secretive

PubMed Central

Thorogood, Rose; Davies, Nicholas B.

2016-01-01

Individuals often vary defences in response to local predation or parasitism risk. But how should they assess threat levels when it pays their enemies to hide? For common cuckoo hosts, assessing parasitism risk is challenging: cuckoo eggs are mimetic and adult cuckoos are secretive and resemble hawks. Here, we show that egg rejection by reed warblers depends on combining personal and social information of local risk. We presented model cuckoos or controls at a pair’s own nest (personal information of an intruder) and/or on a neighbouring territory, to which they were attracted by broadcasts of alarm calls (social information). Rejection of an experimental egg was stimulated only when hosts were alerted by both social and personal information of cuckoos. However, pairs that rejected eggs were not more likely to mob a cuckoo. Therefore, while hosts can assess risk from the sight of a cuckoo, a cuckoo cannot gauge if her egg will be accepted from host mobbing. Our results reveal how hosts respond rapidly to local variation in parasitism, and why it pays cuckoos to be secretive, both to avoid alerting their targets and to limit the spread of social information in the local host neighbourhood. PMID:26794435

Encoding instructions and stimulus presentation in local environmental context-dependent memory studies.

PubMed

Markopoulos, G; Rutherford, A; Cairns, C; Green, J

2010-08-01

Murnane and Phelps (1993) recommend word pair presentations in local environmental context (EC) studies to prevent associations being formed between successively presented items and their ECs and a consequent reduction in the EC effect. Two experiments were conducted to assess the veracity of this assumption. In Experiment 1, participants memorised single words or word pairs, or categorised them as natural or man made. Their free recall protocols were examined to assess any associations established between successively presented items. Fewest associations were observed when the item-specific encoding task (i.e., natural or man made categorisation of word referents) was applied to single words. These findings were examined further in Experiment 2, where the influence of encoding instructions and stimulus presentation on local EC dependent recognition memory was examined. Consistent with recognition dual-process signal detection model predictions and findings (e.g., Macken, 2002; Parks & Yonelinas, 2008), recollection sensitivity, but not familiarity sensitivity, was found to be local EC dependent. However, local EC dependent recognition was observed only after item-specific encoding instructions, irrespective of stimulus presentation. These findings and the existing literature suggest that the use of single word presentations and item-specific encoding enhances local EC dependent recognition.

Socioeconomic Drought in a Changing Climate: Modeling and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, Amir; Mehran, Ali; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2016-04-01

Drought is typically defined based on meteorological, hydrological and land surface conditions. However, in many parts of the world, anthropogenic changes and water management practices have significantly altered local water availability. Socioeconomic drought refers to conditions whereby the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs. Surface water reservoirs provide resilience against local climate variability (e.g., droughts), and play a major role in regional water management. This presentation focuses on a framework for describing socioeconomic drought based on both water supply and demand information. We present a multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI; Mehran et al., 2015). This model links the information on inflow and surface reservoir storage to water demand. MSRRI integrates a "top-down" and a "bottom-up" approach for describing socioeconomic drought. The "top-down" component describes processes that cannot be simply controlled or altered by local decision-makers and managers (e.g., precipitation, climate variability, climate change), whereas the "bottom-up" component focuses on the local resilience, and societal capacity to respond to droughts. The two components (termed, Inflow-Demand Reliability (IDR) indicator and Water Storage Resilience (WSR) indicator) are integrated using a nonparametric multivariate approach. We use this framework to assess the socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium Drought (1998-2010) and the 2011-2014 California Droughts. MSRRI provides additional information on socioeconomic drought onset, development and termination based on local resilience and human demand that cannot be obtained from the commonly used drought indicators. We show that MSRRI can be used for water management scenario analysis (e.g., local water availability based on different human water demands scenarios). Finally, we provide examples of using the proposed modeling framework for analyzing water availability in a changing climate considering local conditions. Reference: Mehran A., Mazdiyasni O., AghaKouchak A., 2015, A Hybrid Framework for Assessing Socioeconomic Drought: Linking Climate Variability, Local Resilience, and Demand, Journal of Geophysical Research, 120 (15), 7520-7533, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023147

Development of a Quantitative Methodology to Assess the Impacts of Urban Transport Interventions and Related Noise on Well-Being

PubMed Central

Braubach, Matthias; Tobollik, Myriam; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Hiscock, Rosemary; Chapizanis, Dimitris; Sarigiannis, Denis A.; Keuken, Menno; Perez, Laura; Martuzzi, Marco

2015-01-01

Well-being impact assessments of urban interventions are a difficult challenge, as there is no agreed methodology and scarce evidence on the relationship between environmental conditions and well-being. The European Union (EU) project “Urban Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China and Europe” (URGENCHE) explored a methodological approach to assess traffic noise-related well-being impacts of transport interventions in three European cities (Basel, Rotterdam and Thessaloniki) linking modeled traffic noise reduction effects with survey data indicating noise-well-being associations. Local noise models showed a reduction of high traffic noise levels in all cities as a result of different urban interventions. Survey data indicated that perception of high noise levels was associated with lower probability of well-being. Connecting the local noise exposure profiles with the noise-well-being associations suggests that the urban transport interventions may have a marginal but positive effect on population well-being. This paper also provides insight into the methodological challenges of well-being assessments and highlights the range of limitations arising from the current lack of reliable evidence on environmental conditions and well-being. Due to these limitations, the results should be interpreted with caution. PMID:26016437

Development of a quantitative methodology to assess the impacts of urban transport interventions and related noise on well-being.

PubMed

Braubach, Matthias; Tobollik, Myriam; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Hiscock, Rosemary; Chapizanis, Dimitris; Sarigiannis, Denis A; Keuken, Menno; Perez, Laura; Martuzzi, Marco

2015-05-26

Well-being impact assessments of urban interventions are a difficult challenge, as there is no agreed methodology and scarce evidence on the relationship between environmental conditions and well-being. The European Union (EU) project "Urban Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China and Europe" (URGENCHE) explored a methodological approach to assess traffic noise-related well-being impacts of transport interventions in three European cities (Basel, Rotterdam and Thessaloniki) linking modeled traffic noise reduction effects with survey data indicating noise-well-being associations. Local noise models showed a reduction of high traffic noise levels in all cities as a result of different urban interventions. Survey data indicated that perception of high noise levels was associated with lower probability of well-being. Connecting the local noise exposure profiles with the noise-well-being associations suggests that the urban transport interventions may have a marginal but positive effect on population well-being. This paper also provides insight into the methodological challenges of well-being assessments and highlights the range of limitations arising from the current lack of reliable evidence on environmental conditions and well-being. Due to these limitations, the results should be interpreted with caution.

Wide variation of prostate-specific antigen doubling time of untreated, clinically localized, low-to-intermediate grade, prostate carcinoma.

PubMed

Choo, Richard; Klotz, Laurence; Deboer, Gerrit; Danjoux, Cyril; Morton, Gerard C

2004-08-01

To assess the prostate specific antigen (PSA) doubling time of untreated, clinically localized, low-to-intermediate grade prostate carcinoma. A prospective single-arm cohort study has been in progress since November 1995 to assess the feasibility of a watchful-observation protocol with selective delayed intervention for clinically localized, low-to-intermediate grade prostate adenocarcinoma. The PSA doubling time was estimated from a linear regression of ln(PSA) against time, assuming a simple exponential growth model. As of March 2003, 231 patients had at least 6 months of follow-up (median 45) and at least three PSA measurements (median 8, range 3-21). The distribution of the doubling time was: < 2 years, 26 patients; 2-5 years, 65; 5-10 years, 42; 10-20 years, 26; 20-50 years, 16; >50 years, 56. The median doubling time was 7.0 years; 42% of men had a doubling time of >10 years. The doubling time of untreated clinically localized, low-to-intermediate grade prostate cancer varies widely.

Does integration matter? A holistic model for building community resilience in Pakistan.

PubMed

Kanta Kafle, Shesh

2017-01-01

This paper analyses an integrated communitybased risk reduction model adopted by the Pakistan Red Crescent. The paper analyses the model's constructs and definitions, and provides a conceptual framework and a set of practical recommendations for building community resilience. The study uses the process of outcome-based resilience index to assess the effectiveness of the approach. The results indicate that the integrated programming approach is an effective way to build community resilience as it offers a number of tangible and longlasting benefits, including effective and efficient service delivery, local ownership, sustainability of results, and improved local resilience with respect to the shock and stress associated with disaster. The paper also outlines a set of recommendations for the effective and efficient use of the model for building community resilience in Pakistan.

The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Frankel, Arthur; Zeng, Yuehua; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Harmsen, Stephen; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Chen, Rui; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell; Williams, Robert; Olsen, Anna H.

2015-01-01

New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

Making Culverts Great Again: Modeling Road Culvert Vulnerability to Assist Prioritization of Local Infrastructure Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, D.; Walter, M. T.; Watkins, L.; Kaufman, Z.; Meyer, A.; Mahaney, M.

2016-12-01

The concurrent threats posed by climate change and aging infrastructure have become of increasing concern in recent years. In the Northeastern US, storms such as Hurricane Irene and Super Storm Sandy have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme weather events, which are projected to become more frequent under future climate change scenarios. Road culverts are one type of infrastructure that is particularly vulnerable to such threats. Culverts allow roads to safely traverse small streams or drainage ditches, and their proper design is critical to ensuring a safe and reliable transportation network. Much of the responsibility for designing and maintaining road culverts lies at the local level, but many local governments lack the resources to quantify the vulnerability of their culverts to major storms. This study contributes a model designed to assist local governments in rapidly assessing the vulnerability of large numbers of culverts and identifies common characteristics of vulnerable culverts. Model inputs include culvert geometry and location data collected by trained local field teams. The model uses custom tools created in ArcGIS and Python to determine the maximum return period storm that each culvert can safely convey under current and projected future rainfall regimes. As a demonstration, over 1000 culverts in New York State were modeled. It was found that a significant percentage of modeled culverts failed to convey the current 5 year return period storm event (deemed a failure) and this percentage increased under projected future rainfall conditions. The model results were analyzed to determine correlations between culvert characteristics and failure. Characteristics investigated included watershed size, road type (state, county or local), affluence of the surrounding area and suitability for aquatic organism passage. Results from this study can be used by local governments to quantify and characterize the vulnerability of current infrastructure and prioritize future infrastructure investment.

Local descriptive norms for overweight/obesity and physical inactivity, features of the built environment, and 10-year change in glycosylated haemoglobin in an Australian population-based biomedical cohort.

PubMed

Carroll, Suzanne J; Paquet, Catherine; Howard, Natasha J; Coffee, Neil T; Taylor, Anne W; Niyonsenga, Theo; Daniel, Mark

2016-10-01

Descriptive norms vary between places. Spatial variation in health-related descriptive norms may predict individual-level health outcomes. Such relationships have rarely been investigated. This study assessed 10-year change in glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in relation to local descriptive norms for overweight/obesity (n = 1890) and physical inactivity (n = 1906) in models accounting for features of the built environment. HbA1c was measured three times over 10 years for a population-based biomedical cohort of adults in Adelaide, South Australia. Environmental exposures were expressed for cohort participants using 1600 m road-network buffers centred on participants' residential address. Local descriptive norms (prevalence of overweight/obesity [body mass index ≥25 kg/m(2)] and of physical inactivity [<150 min/week]) were aggregated from responses to a separate geocoded population survey. Built environment measures were public open space (POS) availability (proportion of buffer area) and walkability. Separate sets of multilevel models analysed different predictors of 10-year change in HbA1c. Each model featured one local descriptive norm and one built environment variable with area-level education and individual-level covariates (age, sex, employment status, education, marital status, and smoking status). Interactions between local descriptive norms and built environment measures were assessed. HbA1c increased over time. POS availability and local descriptive norms for overweight/obesity and physical inactivity were each associated with greater rates of HbA1c increase. Greater walkability was associated with a reduced rate of HbA1c increase, and reduced the influence of the overweight/obesity norm on the rate of increase in HbA1c. Local descriptive health-related norms and features of the built environment predict 10-year change in HbA1c. The impact of local descriptive norms can vary according to built environment features. Little researched thus far, local descriptive norms may play an important role in the evolution of HbA1c and thus cardiometabolic risk, over time. Further empirical research on local descriptive norms is necessary to understand how residential environments shape chronic disease risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzanas, R.; Lucero, A.; Weisheimer, A.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2018-02-01

Statistical downscaling methods are popular post-processing tools which are widely used in many sectors to adapt the coarse-resolution biased outputs from global climate simulations to the regional-to-local scale typically required by users. They range from simple and pragmatic Bias Correction (BC) methods, which directly adjust the model outputs of interest (e.g. precipitation) according to the available local observations, to more complex Perfect Prognosis (PP) ones, which indirectly derive local predictions (e.g. precipitation) from appropriate upper-air large-scale model variables (predictors). Statistical downscaling methods have been extensively used and critically assessed in climate change applications; however, their advantages and limitations in seasonal forecasting are not well understood yet. In particular, a key problem in this context is whether they serve to improve the forecast quality/skill of raw model outputs beyond the adjustment of their systematic biases. In this paper we analyze this issue by applying two state-of-the-art BC and two PP methods to downscale precipitation from a multimodel seasonal hindcast in a challenging tropical region, the Philippines. To properly assess the potential added value beyond the reduction of model biases, we consider two validation scores which are not sensitive to changes in the mean (correlation and reliability categories). Our results show that, whereas BC methods maintain or worsen the skill of the raw model forecasts, PP methods can yield significant skill improvement (worsening) in cases for which the large-scale predictor variables considered are better (worse) predicted by the model than precipitation. For instance, PP methods are found to increase (decrease) model reliability in nearly 40% of the stations considered in boreal summer (autumn). Therefore, the choice of a convenient downscaling approach (either BC or PP) depends on the region and the season.

Effects of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation on rats with the third lumbar vertebrae transverse process syndrome.

PubMed

Li, Huan; Shang, Xiao-Jun; Dong, Qi-Rong

2015-10-01

To investigate the analgesic and anti-inflammatory effects of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) at local or distant acupuncture points in a rat model of the third lumbar vertebrae transverse process syndrome. Forty Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into control, model, model plus local acupuncture point stimulation at BL23 (model+LAS) and model plus distant acupuncture point stimulation at ST36 (model+DAS) groups. All rats except controls underwent surgical third lumbar vertebrae transverse process syndrome modelling on day 2. Thereafter, rats in the model+LAS and model+DAS groups were treated daily with TENS for a total of six treatments (2/100 Hz, 30 min/day) from day 16 to day 29. Thermal pain thresholds were measured once a week during treatment and were continued until day 57, when local muscle tissue was sampled for RT-PCR and histopathological examination after haematoxylin and eosin staining. mRNA expression of interleukin-1 β (IL-1β), tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) was determined. Thermal pain thresholds of all model rats decreased relative to the control group. Both LAS and DAS significantly increased the thermal pain threshold at all but one point during the treatment period. Histopathological assessment revealed that the local muscle tissues around the third lumbar vertebrae transverse process recovered to some degree in both the model+LAS and model+DAS groups; however, LAS appeared to have a greater effect. mRNA expression of IL-1β, TNF-α and iNOS in the local muscle tissues was increased after modelling and attenuated in both model+LAS and model+DAS groups. The beneficial effect was greater after LAS than after DAS. TENS at both local (BL23) and distant (ST36) acupuncture points had a pain-relieving effect in rats with the third lumbar vertebrae transverse process syndrome, and LAS appeared to have greater anti-inflammatory and analgesic effects than DAS. 09073. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

2017-04-01

Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

Cost-effectiveness of Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy versus Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Markov Modeling Study.

PubMed

Pollom, Erqi L; Lee, Kyueun; Durkee, Ben Y; Grade, Madeline; Mokhtari, Daniel A; Wahl, Daniel R; Feng, Mary; Kothary, Nishita; Koong, Albert C; Owens, Douglas K; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy; Chang, Daniel T

2017-05-01

Purpose To assess the cost-effectiveness of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) versus radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for patients with inoperable localized hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are eligible for both SBRT and RFA. Materials and Methods A decision-analytic Markov model was developed for patients with inoperable, localized HCC who were eligible for both RFA and SBRT to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the following treatment strategies: (a) SBRT as initial treatment followed by SBRT for local progression (SBRT-SBRT), (b) RFA followed by RFA for local progression (RFA-RFA), (c) SBRT followed by RFA for local progression (SBRT-RFA), and (d) RFA followed by SBRT for local progression (RFA-SBRT). Probabilities of disease progression, treatment characteristics, and mortality were derived from published studies. Outcomes included health benefits expressed as discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs in U.S. dollars, and cost-effectiveness expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the findings. Results In the base case, SBRT-SBRT yielded the most QALYs (1.565) and cost $197 557. RFA-SBRT yielded 1.558 QALYs and cost $193 288. SBRT-SBRT was not cost-effective, at $558 679 per QALY gained relative to RFA-SBRT. RFA-SBRT was the preferred strategy, because RFA-RFA and SBRT-RFA were less effective and more costly. In all evaluated scenarios, SBRT was preferred as salvage therapy for local progression after RFA. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY gained, RFA-SBRT was preferred in 65.8% of simulations. Conclusion SBRT for initial treatment of localized, inoperable HCC is not cost-effective. However, SBRT is the preferred salvage therapy for local progression after RFA. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Cost-effectiveness of Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy versus Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Markov Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Lee, Kyueun; Durkee, Ben Y.; Grade, Madeline; Mokhtari, Daniel A.; Wahl, Daniel R.; Feng, Mary; Kothary, Nishita; Koong, Albert C.; Owens, Douglas K.; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy; Chang, Daniel T.

2017-01-01

Purpose To assess the cost-effectiveness of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) versus radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for patients with inoperable localized hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are eligible for both SBRT and RFA. Materials and Methods A decision-analytic Markov model was developed for patients with inoperable, localized HCC who were eligible for both RFA and SBRT to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the following treatment strategies: (a) SBRT as initial treatment followed by SBRT for local progression (SBRT-SBRT), (b) RFA followed by RFA for local progression (RFA-RFA), (c) SBRT followed by RFA for local progression (SBRT-RFA), and (d) RFA followed by SBRT for local progression (RFA-SBRT). Probabilities of disease progression, treatment characteristics, and mortality were derived from published studies. Outcomes included health benefits expressed as discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs in U.S. dollars, and cost-effectiveness expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the findings. Results In the base case, SBRT-SBRT yielded the most QALYs (1.565) and cost $197 557. RFA-SBRT yielded 1.558 QALYs and cost $193 288. SBRT-SBRT was not cost-effective, at $558 679 per QALY gained relative to RFA-SBRT. RFA-SBRT was the preferred strategy, because RFA-RFA and SBRT-RFA were less effective and more costly. In all evaluated scenarios, SBRT was preferred as salvage therapy for local progression after RFA. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY gained, RFA-SBRT was preferred in 65.8% of simulations. Conclusion SBRT for initial treatment of localized, inoperable HCC is not cost-effective. However, SBRT is the preferred salvage therapy for local progression after RFA. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article. PMID:28045603

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Hesheng, E-mail: hesheng@umich.edu; Feng, Mary; Jackson, Andrew

Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, andmore » 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.« less

Developing quality indicators and auditing protocols from formal guideline models: knowledge representation and transformations.

PubMed

Advani, Aneel; Goldstein, Mary; Shahar, Yuval; Musen, Mark A

2003-01-01

Automated quality assessment of clinician actions and patient outcomes is a central problem in guideline- or standards-based medical care. In this paper we describe a model representation and algorithm for deriving structured quality indicators and auditing protocols from formalized specifications of guidelines used in decision support systems. We apply the model and algorithm to the assessment of physician concordance with a guideline knowledge model for hypertension used in a decision-support system. The properties of our solution include the ability to derive automatically context-specific and case-mix-adjusted quality indicators that can model global or local levels of detail about the guideline parameterized by defining the reliability of each indicator or element of the guideline.

Socio-economic exposure to natural disasters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marin, Giovanni, E-mail: giovanni.marin@uniurb.it; IRCrES - CNR, Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth, Via Corti 12, 20133 - Milano; SEEDS, Ferrara

Even though the correct assessment of risks is a key aspect of the risk management analysis, we argue that limited effort has been devoted in the assessment of comprehensive measures of economic exposure at very low scale. For this reason, we aim at providing a series of suitable methodologies to provide a complete and detailed list of the exposure of economic activities to natural disasters. We use Input-Output models to provide information about several socio-economic variables, such as population density, employment density, firms' turnover and capital stock, that can be seen as direct and indirect socio-economic exposure to natural disasters.more » We then provide an application to the Italian context. These measures can be easily incorporated into risk assessment models to provide a clear picture of the disaster risk for local areas. - Highlights: • Ex ante assessment of economic exposure to disasters at very low geographical scale • Assessment of the cost of natural disasters in ex-post perspective • IO model and spatial autocorrelation to get information on socio-economic variables • Indicators supporting risk assessment and risk management models.« less

Predictive Models for Regional Hepatic Function Based on 99mTc-IDA SPECT and Local Radiation Dose for Physiologic Adaptive Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Hesheng, E-mail: hesheng@umich.edu; Feng, Mary; Frey, Kirk A.

2013-08-01

Purpose: High-dose radiation therapy (RT) for intrahepatic cancer is limited by the development of liver injury. This study investigated whether regional hepatic function assessed before and during the course of RT using 99mTc-labeled iminodiacetic acid (IDA) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) could predict regional liver function reserve after RT. Methods and Materials: Fourteen patients treated with RT for intrahepatic cancers underwent dynamic 99mTc-IDA SPECT scans before RT, during, and 1 month after completion of RT. Indocyanine green (ICG) tests, a measure of overall liver function, were performed within 1 day of each scan. Three-dimensional volumetric hepatic extraction fraction (HEF)more » images of the liver were estimated by deconvolution analysis. After coregistration of the CT/SPECT and the treatment planning CT, HEF dose–response functions during and after RT were generated. The volumetric mean of the HEFs in the whole liver was correlated with ICG clearance time. Three models, dose, priori, and adaptive models, were developed using multivariate linear regression to assess whether the regional HEFs measured before and during RT helped predict regional hepatic function after RT. Results: The mean of the volumetric liver HEFs was significantly correlated with ICG clearance half-life time (r=−0.80, P<.0001), for all time points. Linear correlations between local doses and regional HEFs 1 month after RT were significant in 12 patients. In the priori model, regional HEF after RT was predicted by the planned dose and regional HEF assessed before RT (R=0.71, P<.0001). In the adaptive model, regional HEF after RT was predicted by regional HEF reassessed during RT and the remaining planned local dose (R=0.83, P<.0001). Conclusions: 99mTc-IDA SPECT obtained during RT could be used to assess regional hepatic function and helped predict post-RT regional liver function reserve. This could support individualized adaptive radiation treatment strategies to maximize tumor control and minimize the risk of liver damage.« less

Effects of mesh style and grid convergence on particle deposition in bifurcating airway models with comparisons to experimental data.

PubMed

Longest, P Worth; Vinchurkar, Samir

2007-04-01

A number of research studies have employed a wide variety of mesh styles and levels of grid convergence to assess velocity fields and particle deposition patterns in models of branching biological systems. Generating structured meshes based on hexahedral elements requires significant time and effort; however, these meshes are often associated with high quality solutions. Unstructured meshes that employ tetrahedral elements can be constructed much faster but may increase levels of numerical diffusion, especially in tubular flow systems with a primary flow direction. The objective of this study is to better establish the effects of mesh generation techniques and grid convergence on velocity fields and particle deposition patterns in bifurcating respiratory models. In order to achieve this objective, four widely used mesh styles including structured hexahedral, unstructured tetrahedral, flow adaptive tetrahedral, and hybrid grids have been considered for two respiratory airway configurations. Initial particle conditions tested are based on the inlet velocity profile or the local inlet mass flow rate. Accuracy of the simulations has been assessed by comparisons to experimental in vitro data available in the literature for the steady-state velocity field in a single bifurcation model as well as the local particle deposition fraction in a double bifurcation model. Quantitative grid convergence was assessed based on a grid convergence index (GCI), which accounts for the degree of grid refinement. The hexahedral mesh was observed to have GCI values that were an order of magnitude below the unstructured tetrahedral mesh values for all resolutions considered. Moreover, the hexahedral mesh style provided GCI values of approximately 1% and reduced run times by a factor of 3. Based on comparisons to empirical data, it was shown that inlet particle seedings should be consistent with the local inlet mass flow rate. Furthermore, the mesh style was found to have an observable effect on cumulative particle depositions with the hexahedral solution most closely matching empirical results. Future studies are needed to assess other mesh generation options including various forms of the hybrid configuration and unstructured hexahedral meshes.

Predictive models for regional hepatic function based on 99mTc-IDA SPECT and local radiation dose for physiologic adaptive radiation therapy.

PubMed

Wang, Hesheng; Feng, Mary; Frey, Kirk A; Ten Haken, Randall K; Lawrence, Theodore S; Cao, Yue

2013-08-01

High-dose radiation therapy (RT) for intrahepatic cancer is limited by the development of liver injury. This study investigated whether regional hepatic function assessed before and during the course of RT using 99mTc-labeled iminodiacetic acid (IDA) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) could predict regional liver function reserve after RT. Fourteen patients treated with RT for intrahepatic cancers underwent dynamic 99mTc-IDA SPECT scans before RT, during, and 1 month after completion of RT. Indocyanine green (ICG) tests, a measure of overall liver function, were performed within 1 day of each scan. Three-dimensional volumetric hepatic extraction fraction (HEF) images of the liver were estimated by deconvolution analysis. After coregistration of the CT/SPECT and the treatment planning CT, HEF dose-response functions during and after RT were generated. The volumetric mean of the HEFs in the whole liver was correlated with ICG clearance time. Three models, dose, priori, and adaptive models, were developed using multivariate linear regression to assess whether the regional HEFs measured before and during RT helped predict regional hepatic function after RT. The mean of the volumetric liver HEFs was significantly correlated with ICG clearance half-life time (r=-0.80, P<.0001), for all time points. Linear correlations between local doses and regional HEFs 1 month after RT were significant in 12 patients. In the priori model, regional HEF after RT was predicted by the planned dose and regional HEF assessed before RT (R=0.71, P<.0001). In the adaptive model, regional HEF after RT was predicted by regional HEF reassessed during RT and the remaining planned local dose (R=0.83, P<.0001). 99mTc-IDA SPECT obtained during RT could be used to assess regional hepatic function and helped predict post-RT regional liver function reserve. This could support individualized adaptive radiation treatment strategies to maximize tumor control and minimize the risk of liver damage. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Assessing a local ensemble Kalman filter: perfect model experiments with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szunyogh, Istvan; Kostelich, Eric J.; Gyarmati, G.; Patil, D. J.; Hunt, Brian R.; Kalnay, Eugenia; Ott, Edward; Yorke, James A.

2005-08-01

The accuracy and computational efficiency of the recently proposed local ensemble Kalman filter (LEKF) data assimilation scheme is investigated on a state-of-the-art operational numerical weather prediction model using simulated observations. The model selected for this purpose is the T62 horizontal- and 28-level vertical-resolution version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. The performance of the data assimilation system is assessed for different configurations of the LEKF scheme. It is shown that a modest size (40-member) ensemble is sufficient to track the evolution of the atmospheric state with high accuracy. For this ensemble size, the computational time per analysis is less than 9 min on a cluster of PCs. The analyses are extremely accurate in the mid-latitude storm track regions. The largest analysis errors, which are typically much smaller than the observational errors, occur where parametrized physical processes play important roles. Because these are also the regions where model errors are expected to be the largest, limitations of a real-data implementation of the ensemble-based Kalman filter may be easily mistaken for model errors. In light of these results, the importance of testing the ensemble-based Kalman filter data assimilation systems on simulated observations is stressed.

The watershed-scale optimized and rearranged landscape design (WORLD) model and local biomass processing depots for sustainable biofuel production: Integrated life cycle assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eranki, Pragnya L.; Manowitz, David H.; Bals, Bryan D.

An array of feedstock is being evaluated as potential raw material for cellulosic biofuel production. Thorough assessments are required in regional landscape settings before these feedstocks can be cultivated and sustainable management practices can be implemented. On the processing side, a potential solution to the logistical challenges of large biorefi neries is provided by a network of distributed processing facilities called local biomass processing depots. A large-scale cellulosic ethanol industry is likely to emerge soon in the United States. We have the opportunity to influence the sustainability of this emerging industry. The watershed-scale optimized and rearranged landscape design (WORLD) modelmore » estimates land allocations for different cellulosic feedstocks at biorefinery scale without displacing current animal nutrition requirements. This model also incorporates a network of the aforementioned depots. An integrated life cycle assessment is then conducted over the unified system of optimized feedstock production, processing, and associated transport operations to evaluate net energy yields (NEYs) and environmental impacts.« less

Climate-based archetypes for the environmental fate assessment of chemicals.

PubMed

Ciuffo, Biagio; Sala, Serenella

2013-11-15

Emissions of chemicals have been on the rise for years, and their impacts are greatly influenced by spatial differentiation. Chemicals are usually emitted locally but their impact can be felt both locally and globally, due to their chemical properties and persistence. The variability of environmental parameters in the emission compartment may affect the chemicals' fate and the exposure at different orders of magnitude. The assessment of the environmental fate of chemicals and the inherent spatial differentiation requires the use of multimedia models at various levels of complexity (from a simple box model to complex computational and high-spatial-resolution models). The objective of these models is to support ecological and human health risk assessment, by reducing the uncertainty of chemical impact assessments. The parameterisation of spatially resolved multimedia models is usually based on scenarios of evaluative environments, or on geographical resolutions related to administrative boundaries (e.g. countries/continents) or landscape areas (e.g. watersheds, eco-regions). The choice of the most appropriate scale and scenario is important from a management perspective, as a balance should be reached between a simplified approach and computationally intensive multimedia models. In this paper, which aims to go beyond the more traditional approach based on scale/resolution (cell, country, and basin), we propose and assess climate-based archetypes for the impact assessment of chemicals released in air. We define the archetypes based on the main drivers of spatial variability, which we systematically identify by adopting global sensitivity analysis techniques. A case study that uses the high resolution multimedia model MAPPE (Multimedia Assessment of Pollutant Pathways in the Environment) is presented. Results of the analysis showed that suitable archetypes should be both climate- and chemical-specific, as different chemicals (or groups of them) have different traits that influence their spatial variability. This hypothesis was tested by comparing the variability of the output of MAPPE for four different climatic zones on four different continents for four different chemicals (which represent different combinations of physical and chemical properties). Results showed the high suitability of climate-based archetypes in assessing the impacts of chemicals released in air. However, further research work is still necessary to test these findings. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Margin to tumor thickness ratio - A predictor of local recurrence and survival in oral squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Heiduschka, Gregor; Virk, Sohaib A; Palme, Carsten E; Ch'ng, Sydney; Elliot, Michael; Gupta, Ruta; Clark, Jonathan

2016-04-01

To assess whether small oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC) require the same margin clearance as large tumors. We evaluated the association between the ratio of the closest margin to tumor size (MSR) and tumor thickness (MTR) with local control and survival. The clinicopathologic and follow up data were obtained for 501 OSCC patients who had surgical resection with curative intent at our institution. MTR and MSR were computed and their associations with local control and survival were assessed using multivariable Cox-regression model. Survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. MTR was a better predictor of disease control than MSR. MTR was a predictor of local failure (p=0.033) and disease specific death (p=0.038) after adjusting for perineural invasion, lymphovascular involvement, nodal status, and radiotherapy. A threshold MTR value of 0.3 was identified, above which the risk of local recurrence was low. The ratio of margin to tumor thickness was an independent predictor for local recurrence and disease specific death in this cohort. A MTR>0.3 can serve as a useful tool for adjuvant therapy planning as it combines tumor thickness and margin clearance, two well established prognostic factors. The minimum safe margin can be calculated by multiplying the tumor thickness by 0.3. Further prospective studies in other institutions are warranted to confirm the prognostic utility of MTR and assess the generalizability of our threshold values. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biomechanics of Atherosclerotic Coronary Plaque: Site, Stability and In Vivo Elasticity Modeling

PubMed Central

Ohayon, Jacques; Finet, Gérard; Le Floc’h, Simon; Cloutier, Guy; Gharib, Ahmed M.; Heroux, Julie; Pettigrew, Roderic I.

2016-01-01

Coronary atheroma develop in local sites that are widely variable among patients and are considerably variable in their vulnerability for rupture. This article summarizes studies conducted by our collaborative laboratories on predictive biomechanical modeling of coronary plaques. It aims to give insights into the role of biomechanics in the development and localization of atherosclerosis, the morphologic features that determine vulnerable plaque stability, and emerging in vivo imaging techniques that may detect and characterize vulnerable plaque. Composite biomechanical and hemodynamic factors that influence the actual site of development of plaques have been studied. Plaque vulnerability, in vivo, is more challenging to assess. Important steps have been made in defining the biomechanical factors that are predictive of plaque rupture and the likelihood of this occurring if characteristic features are known. A critical key in defining plaque vulnerability is the accurate quantification of both the morphology and the mechanical properties of the diseased arteries. Recently, an early IVUS based palpography technique developed to assess local strain, elasticity and mechanical instabilities has been successfully revisited and improved to account for complex plaque geometries. This is based on an initial best estimation of the plaque components’ contours, allowing subsequent iteration for elastic modulus assessment as a basis for plaque stability determination. The improved method has also been preliminarily evaluated in patients with successful histologic correlation. Further clinical evaluation and refinement are on the horizon. PMID:24043605

An application of locally linear model tree algorithm with combination of feature selection in credit scoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siami, Mohammad; Gholamian, Mohammad Reza; Basiri, Javad

2014-10-01

Nowadays, credit scoring is one of the most important topics in the banking sector. Credit scoring models have been widely used to facilitate the process of credit assessing. In this paper, an application of the locally linear model tree algorithm (LOLIMOT) was experimented to evaluate the superiority of its performance to predict the customer's credit status. The algorithm is improved with an aim of adjustment by credit scoring domain by means of data fusion and feature selection techniques. Two real world credit data sets - Australian and German - from UCI machine learning database were selected to demonstrate the performance of our new classifier. The analytical results indicate that the improved LOLIMOT significantly increase the prediction accuracy.

Modelling NO2 concentrations at the street level in the GAINS integrated assessment model: projections under current legislation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiesewetter, G.; Borken-Kleefeld, J.; Schöpp, W.; Heyes, C.; Thunis, P.; Bessagnet, B.; Gsella, A.; Amann, M.

2013-08-01

NO2 concentrations at the street level are a major concern for urban air quality in Europe and have been regulated under the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Despite the legal requirements, limit values are exceeded at many monitoring stations with little or no improvement during recent years. In order to assess the effects of future emission control regulations on roadside NO2 concentrations, a downscaling module has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model. The module follows a hybrid approach based on atmospheric dispersion calculations and observations from the AirBase European air quality data base that are used to estimate site-specific parameters. Pollutant concentrations at every monitoring site with sufficient data coverage are disaggregated into contributions from regional background, urban increment, and local roadside increment. The future evolution of each contribution is assessed with a model of the appropriate scale - 28 × 28 km grid based on the EMEP Model for the regional background, 7 × 7 km urban increment based on the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model, and a chemical box model for the roadside increment. Thus, different emission scenarios and control options for long-range transport, regional and local emissions can be analysed. Observed concentrations and historical trends are well captured, in particular the differing NO2 and total NOx = NO + NO2 trends. Altogether, more than 1950 air quality monitoring stations in the EU are covered by the model, including more than 400 traffic stations and 70% of the critical stations. Together with its well-established bottom-up emission and dispersion calculation scheme, GAINS is thus able to bridge the scales from European-wide policies to impacts in street canyons. As an application of the model, we assess the evolution of attainment of NO2 limit values under current legislation until 2030. Strong improvements are expected with the introduction of the Euro 6 emission standard for light duty vehicles; however, for some major European cities, further measures may be required, in particular if aiming to achieve compliance at an earlier time.

Modelling NO2 concentrations at the street level in the GAINS integrated assessment model: projections under current legislation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiesewetter, G.; Borken-Kleefeld, J.; Schöpp, W.; Heyes, C.; Thunis, P.; Bessagnet, B.; Terrenoire, E.; Gsella, A.; Amann, M.

2014-01-01

NO2 concentrations at the street level are a major concern for urban air quality in Europe and have been regulated under the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Despite the legal requirements, limit values are exceeded at many monitoring stations with little or no improvement in recent years. In order to assess the effects of future emission control regulations on roadside NO2 concentrations, a downscaling module has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model. The module follows a hybrid approach based on atmospheric dispersion calculations and observations from the AirBase European air quality database that are used to estimate site-specific parameters. Pollutant concentrations at every monitoring site with sufficient data coverage are disaggregated into contributions from regional background, urban increment, and local roadside increment. The future evolution of each contribution is assessed with a model of the appropriate scale: 28 × 28 km grid based on the EMEP Model for the regional background, 7 × 7 km urban increment based on the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model, and a chemical box model for the roadside increment. Thus, different emission scenarios and control options for long-range transport as well as regional and local emissions can be analysed. Observed concentrations and historical trends are well captured, in particular the differing NO2 and total NOx = NO + NO2 trends. Altogether, more than 1950 air quality monitoring stations in the EU are covered by the model, including more than 400 traffic stations and 70% of the critical stations. Together with its well-established bottom-up emission and dispersion calculation scheme, GAINS is thus able to bridge the scales from European-wide policies to impacts in street canyons. As an application of the model, we assess the evolution of attainment of NO2 limit values under current legislation until 2030. Strong improvements are expected with the introduction of the Euro 6 emission standard for light duty vehicles; however, for some major European cities, further measures may be required, in particular if aiming to achieve compliance at an earlier time.

Environmental species sorting dominates forest-bird community assembly across scales.

PubMed

Özkan, Korhan; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Jeppesen, Erik

2013-01-01

Environmental species sorting and dispersal are seen as key factors in community assembly, but their relative importance and scale dependence remain uncertain, as the extent to which communities are consistently assembled throughout their biomes. To address these issues, we analysed bird metacommunity structure in a 1200-km(2) forested landscape (Istranca Forests) in Turkish Thrace at the margin of the Western Palaearctic (WP) temperate-forest biome. First, we used spatial regressions and Mantel tests to assess the relative importance of environmental and spatial factors as drivers of local species richness and composition within the metacommunity. Second, we analysed species' abundance-occupancy relationship across the metacommunity and used null models to assess whether occupancy is determined by species' environmental niches. Third, we used generalized linear models to test for links between species' metacommunity-wide occupancy and their broader WP regional populations and assessed whether these links are consistent with environmental species sorting. There was strong environmental control on local species richness and composition patterns within the metacommunity, but non-environmental spatial factors had also an important joint role. Null model analyses on randomized communities showed that species' occupancy across the metacommunity was strongly determined by species' environmental niches, with occupancy being related to niche position marginality. Species' metacommunity-wide occupancy correlated with their local abundance as well as with their range size and total abundance for the whole WP, suggesting that the same assembly mechanisms act consistently across local to regional scales. A species specialization index that was estimated by bird species' habitat use across France, incorporating both niche position and breadth, was significantly related to species' occupancy and abundance at both metacommunity and WP regional scales. Hence, the same niche-related assembly mechanisms appear to act consistently across the WP region. Overall, our results suggest that the structure of the Istranca Forest' bird metacommunity was predominantly controlled by environmental species sorting in a manner consistent with the broader WP region. However, variability in local community structure was also linked to purely spatial factors, albeit more weakly. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

A new methodology for modeling of direct landslide costs for transportation infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, Martin; Terhorst, Birgit

2014-05-01

The world's transportation infrastructure is at risk of landslides in many areas across the globe. A safe and affordable operation of traffic routes are the two main criteria for transportation planning in landslide-prone areas. The right balancing of these often conflicting priorities requires, amongst others, profound knowledge of the direct costs of landslide damage. These costs include capital investments for landslide repair and mitigation as well as operational expenditures for first response and maintenance works. This contribution presents a new methodology for ex post assessment of direct landslide costs for transportation infrastructures. The methodology includes tools to compile, model, and extrapolate landslide losses on different spatial scales over time. A landslide susceptibility model enables regional cost extrapolation by means of a cost figure obtained from local cost compilation for representative case study areas. On local level, cost survey is closely linked with cost modeling, a toolset for cost estimation based on landslide databases. Cost modeling uses Landslide Disaster Management Process Models (LDMMs) and cost modules to simulate and monetize cost factors for certain types of landslide damage. The landslide susceptibility model provides a regional exposure index and updates the cost figure to a cost index which describes the costs per km of traffic route at risk of landslides. Both indexes enable the regionalization of local landslide losses. The methodology is applied and tested in a cost assessment for highways in the Lower Saxon Uplands, NW Germany, in the period 1980 to 2010. The basis of this research is a regional subset of a landslide database for the Federal Republic of Germany. In the 7,000 km² large Lower Saxon Uplands, 77 km of highway are located in potential landslide hazard area. Annual average costs of 52k per km of highway at risk of landslides are identified as cost index for a local case study area in this region. The cost extrapolation for the Lower Saxon Uplands results in annual average costs for highways of 4.02mn. This test application as well as a validation of selected modeling tools verifies the functionality of this methodology.

Users guide for the hydroacoustic coverage assessment model (HydroCAM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farrell, T., LLNL

1997-12-01

A model for predicting the detection and localization performance of hydroacoustic monitoring networks has been developed. The model accounts for major factors affecting global-scale acoustic propagation in the ocean. including horizontal refraction, travel time variability due to spatial and temporal fluctuations in the ocean, and detailed characteristics of the source. Graphical user interfaces are provided to setup the models and visualize the results. The model produces maps of network detection coverage and localization area of uncertainty, as well as intermediate results such as predicted path amplitudes, travel time and travel time variance. This Users Guide for the model is organizedmore » into three sections. First a summary of functionality available in the model is presented, including example output products. The second section provides detailed descriptions of each of models contained in the system. The last section describes how to run the model, including a summary of each data input form in the user interface.« less

lazar: a modular predictive toxicology framework

PubMed Central

Maunz, Andreas; Gütlein, Martin; Rautenberg, Micha; Vorgrimmler, David; Gebele, Denis; Helma, Christoph

2013-01-01

lazar (lazy structure–activity relationships) is a modular framework for predictive toxicology. Similar to the read across procedure in toxicological risk assessment, lazar creates local QSAR (quantitative structure–activity relationship) models for each compound to be predicted. Model developers can choose between a large variety of algorithms for descriptor calculation and selection, chemical similarity indices, and model building. This paper presents a high level description of the lazar framework and discusses the performance of example classification and regression models. PMID:23761761

Predicting habitat suitability for rare plants at local spatial scales using a species distribution model.

PubMed

Gogol-Prokurat, Melanie

2011-01-01

If species distribution models (SDMs) can rank habitat suitability at a local scale, they may be a valuable conservation planning tool for rare, patchily distributed species. This study assessed the ability of Maxent, an SDM reported to be appropriate for modeling rare species, to rank habitat suitability at a local scale for four edaphic endemic rare plants of gabbroic soils in El Dorado County, California, and examined the effects of grain size, spatial extent, and fine-grain environmental predictors on local-scale model accuracy. Models were developed using species occurrence data mapped on public lands and were evaluated using an independent data set of presence and absence locations on surrounding lands, mimicking a typical conservation-planning scenario that prioritizes potential habitat on unsurveyed lands surrounding known occurrences. Maxent produced models that were successful at discriminating between suitable and unsuitable habitat at the local scale for all four species, and predicted habitat suitability values were proportional to likelihood of occurrence or population abundance for three of four species. Unfortunately, models with the best discrimination (i.e., AUC) were not always the most useful for ranking habitat suitability. The use of independent test data showed metrics that were valuable for evaluating which variables and model choices (e.g., grain, extent) to use in guiding habitat prioritization for conservation of these species. A goodness-of-fit test was used to determine whether habitat suitability values ranked habitat suitability on a continuous scale. If they did not, a minimum acceptable error predicted area criterion was used to determine the threshold for classifying habitat as suitable or unsuitable. I found a trade-off between model extent and the use of fine-grain environmental variables: goodness of fit was improved at larger extents, and fine-grain environmental variables improved local-scale accuracy, but fine-grain variables were not available at large extents. No single model met all habitat prioritization criteria, and the best models were overlaid to identify consensus areas of high suitability. Although the four species modeled here co-occur and are treated together for conservation planning, model accuracy and predicted suitable areas varied among species.

A risk assessment of direct and indirect exposure to emissions from a proposed hazardous waste incinerator in Puerto Rico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hallinger, K.; Huggins, A.; Warner, L.

1995-12-31

An Indirect Exposure Assessment (IEA) was conducted, under USEPA`s RCRA Combustion Strategy, as part of the Part B permitting process for a proposed hazardous waste incinerator. The IEA involved identification of constituents of concern, emissions estimations, air dispersion and deposition modeling, evaluation of site-specific exposure pathways/scenarios, and food chain modeling in order to evaluate potential human health and environmental risks. The COMPDEP model was used to determine ambient ground level concentrations and dry and wet deposition rates of constituents of concern. The air modeling results were input into 50th percentile (Central) and 95th percentile (High-End) exposure scenarios which evaluated directmore » exposure via inhalation, dermal contact, and soil ingestion pathways, and indirect exposure through the food chain. The indirect pathway analysis considered the accumulation of constituents in plants and animals used as food sources by local inhabitants. Local food consumption data obtained from the Puerto Rico USDA were combined with realistic present-day and future-use exposure scenarios such as residential use, pineapple farming, and subsistence farming to obtain a comprehensive evaluation of risk, Overall risk was calculated using constituent doses and toxicity factors associated with the various routes of exposure. Risk values for each exposure pathway were summed to determine total carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic hazard to exposed individuals. A population risk assessment was also conducted in order to assess potential risks to the population surrounding the facility. Results of the assessment indicated no acute effects from constituents of concern, and a high-end excess lifetime cancer risk of approximately 6 in a million with dioxins (as 2,3,7,8-TCDD) and arsenic dominating the risk estimate.« less

Foraging Behaviour in Magellanic Woodpeckers Is Consistent with a Multi-Scale Assessment of Tree Quality

PubMed Central

Vergara, Pablo M.; Soto, Gerardo E.; Rodewald, Amanda D.; Meneses, Luis O.; Pérez-Hernández, Christian G.

2016-01-01

Theoretical models predict that animals should make foraging decisions after assessing the quality of available habitat, but most models fail to consider the spatio-temporal scales at which animals perceive habitat availability. We tested three foraging strategies that explain how Magellanic woodpeckers (Campephilus magellanicus) assess the relative quality of trees: 1) Woodpeckers with local knowledge select trees based on the available trees in the immediate vicinity. 2) Woodpeckers lacking local knowledge select trees based on their availability at previously visited locations. 3) Woodpeckers using information from long-term memory select trees based on knowledge about trees available within the entire landscape. We observed foraging woodpeckers and used a Brownian Bridge Movement Model to identify trees available to woodpeckers along foraging routes. Woodpeckers selected trees with a later decay stage than available trees. Selection models indicated that preferences of Magellanic woodpeckers were based on clusters of trees near the most recently visited trees, thus suggesting that woodpeckers use visual cues from neighboring trees. In a second analysis, Cox’s proportional hazards models showed that woodpeckers used information consolidated across broader spatial scales to adjust tree residence times. Specifically, woodpeckers spent more time at trees with larger diameters and in a more advanced stage of decay than trees available along their routes. These results suggest that Magellanic woodpeckers make foraging decisions based on the relative quality of trees that they perceive and memorize information at different spatio-temporal scales. PMID:27416115

Foraging Behaviour in Magellanic Woodpeckers Is Consistent with a Multi-Scale Assessment of Tree Quality.

PubMed

Vergara, Pablo M; Soto, Gerardo E; Moreira-Arce, Darío; Rodewald, Amanda D; Meneses, Luis O; Pérez-Hernández, Christian G

2016-01-01

Theoretical models predict that animals should make foraging decisions after assessing the quality of available habitat, but most models fail to consider the spatio-temporal scales at which animals perceive habitat availability. We tested three foraging strategies that explain how Magellanic woodpeckers (Campephilus magellanicus) assess the relative quality of trees: 1) Woodpeckers with local knowledge select trees based on the available trees in the immediate vicinity. 2) Woodpeckers lacking local knowledge select trees based on their availability at previously visited locations. 3) Woodpeckers using information from long-term memory select trees based on knowledge about trees available within the entire landscape. We observed foraging woodpeckers and used a Brownian Bridge Movement Model to identify trees available to woodpeckers along foraging routes. Woodpeckers selected trees with a later decay stage than available trees. Selection models indicated that preferences of Magellanic woodpeckers were based on clusters of trees near the most recently visited trees, thus suggesting that woodpeckers use visual cues from neighboring trees. In a second analysis, Cox's proportional hazards models showed that woodpeckers used information consolidated across broader spatial scales to adjust tree residence times. Specifically, woodpeckers spent more time at trees with larger diameters and in a more advanced stage of decay than trees available along their routes. These results suggest that Magellanic woodpeckers make foraging decisions based on the relative quality of trees that they perceive and memorize information at different spatio-temporal scales.

Safety assessment for In-service Pressure Bending Pipe Containing Incomplete Penetration Defects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Tang, P.; Xia, J. F.; Ling, Z. W.; Cai, G. Y.

2017-12-01

Incomplete penetration defect is a common defect in the welded joint of pressure pipes. While the safety classification of pressure pipe containing incomplete penetration defects, according to periodical inspection regulations in present, is more conservative. For reducing the repair of incomplete penetration defect, a scientific and applicable safety assessment method for pressure pipe is needed. In this paper, the stress analysis model of the pipe system was established for the in-service pressure bending pipe containing incomplete penetration defects. The local finite element model was set up to analyze the stress distribution of defect location and the stress linearization. And then, the applicability of two assessment methods, simplified assessment and U factor assessment method, to the assessment of incomplete penetration defects located at pressure bending pipe were analyzed. The results can provide some technical supports for the safety assessment of complex pipelines in the future.

Quantitative health impact assessment of transport policies: two simulations related to speed limit reduction and traffic re-allocation in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Schram-Bijkerk, D; van Kempen, E; Knol, A B; Kruize, H; Staatsen, B; van Kamp, I

2009-10-01

Few quantitative health impact assessments (HIAs) of transport policies have been published so far and there is a lack of a common methodology for such assessments. To evaluate the usability of existing HIA methodology to quantify health effects of transport policies at the local level. Health impact of two simulated but realistic transport interventions - speed limit reduction and traffic re-allocation - was quantified by selecting traffic-related exposures and health endpoints, modelling of population exposure, selecting exposure-effect relations and estimating the number of local traffic-related cases and disease burden, expressed in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), before and after the intervention. Exposure information was difficult to retrieve because of the local scale of the interventions, and exposure-effect relations for subgroups and combined effects were missing. Given uncertainty in the outcomes originating from this kind of missing information, simulated changes in population health by two local traffic interventions were estimated to be small (<5%), except for the estimated reduction in DALYs by less traffic accidents (60%) due to speed limit reduction. Quantitative HIA of transport policies at a local scale is possible, provided that data on exposures, the exposed population and their baseline health status are available. The interpretation of the HIA information should be carried out in the context of the quality of input data and assumptions and uncertainties of the analysis.

Application of the WEAP model in strategic environmental assessment: Experiences from a case study in an arid/semi-arid area in China.

PubMed

Gao, Jingjing; Christensen, Per; Li, Wei

2017-08-01

This article investigated how the use of a water resources assessment model contributed to one of the first strategic environmental assessments (SEA) conducted for arid/semi-arid regions in China. The study was based on the SEA of a coal industry development plan in Ordos, an arid/semi-arid region of northwest China, where a temporally and spatially simplified version of the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning System) model was applied for assessing the impact of the planned activities on local water resource system. Four scenarios were developed to simulate various alternatives using a diverse range of water utilisation measures such as irrigation efficiency, treatment and the reuse of water. The WEAP model itself was found to be a useful tool for efficient water resources assessment in SEA: 1) WEAP provides built-in simulation modules for water assessment, which improve the SEA's efficiency significantly; 2) WEAP temporally has the flexibility in both delivering information on a reasonably aggregated level by evaluating water resource on an annual time step, which fits most SEA cases, and being possible to take a finer time step analysis monthly, weekly even daily; 3) Spatially, WEAP has advantage in dealing with distributed demand sites in large spatial scale. However, although WEAP appears as a useful tool in providing support for decision-making, in this SEA case we experienced difficulty in building a feasible scenario to mitigate the impact of the proposed activities on the local water system, so that solution had to be found outside of the assessed scenarios - which led to the discussion on the fact that the proposed activities in SEA cases are rarely regarded as an uncertainty. Therefore future research on the scope of SEA scenarios could be valuable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-15

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Does the Model Matter? Exploring the Relationship between Different Student Achievement-Based Teacher Assessments. CEDR Working Paper. WP #2012-6

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Walch, Joe; Gabele, Brian

2012-01-01

Policymakers appear increasingly inclined to utilize measures of student achievement, often state assessment results, to inform high-stakes teacher personnel decisions. This has been spurred on by the federal government's Teacher Incentive Fund (TIF) and Race to the Top (RttT) grant programs, each of which urge states and localities to tie teacher…

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

2018-05-01

This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

Approaches to Develop Alternative Testing Strategies to Inform Human Health Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Stone, Vicki; Johnston, Helinor J; Balharry, Dominique; Gernand, Jeremy M; Gulumian, Mary

2016-08-01

The development of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for hazard assessment of new and emerging materials is high on the agenda of scientists, funders, and regulators. The relatively large number of nanomaterials on the market and under development means that an increasing emphasis will be placed on the use of reliable, predictive ATS when assessing their safety. We have provided recommendations as to how ATS development for assessment of nanomaterial hazard may be accelerated. Predefined search terms were used to identify the quantity and distribution of peer-reviewed publications for nanomaterial hazard assessment following inhalation, ingestion, or dermal absorption. A summary of knowledge gaps relating to nanomaterial hazard is provided to identify future research priorities and areas in which a rich data set might exist to allow ATS identification. Consultation with stakeholders (e.g., academia, industry, regulators) was critical to ensure that current expert opinion was reflected. The gap analysis revealed an abundance of studies that assessed the local and systemic impacts of inhaled particles, and so ATS are available for immediate use. Development of ATS for assessment of the dermal toxicity of chemicals is already relatively advanced, and these models should be applied to nanomaterials as relatively few studies have assessed the dermal toxicity of nanomaterials to date. Limited studies have investigated the local and systemic impacts of ingested nanomaterials. If the recommendations for research prioritization proposed are adopted, it is envisioned that a comprehensive battery of ATS can be developed to support the risk assessment process for nanomaterials. Some alternative models are available for immediate implementation, while others require more developmental work to become widely adopted. Case studies are included that can be used to inform the selection of alternative models and end points when assessing the pathogenicity of fibers and mode of action of nanomaterial toxicity. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Implementing the Keele stratified care model for patients with low back pain: an observational impact study.

PubMed

Bamford, Adrian; Nation, Andy; Durrell, Susie; Andronis, Lazaros; Rule, Ellen; McLeod, Hugh

2017-02-03

The Keele stratified care model for management of low back pain comprises use of the prognostic STarT Back Screening Tool to allocate patients into one of three risk-defined categories leading to associated risk-specific treatment pathways, such that high-risk patients receive enhanced treatment and more sessions than medium- and low-risk patients. The Keele model is associated with economic benefits and is being widely implemented. The objective was to assess the use of the stratified model following its introduction in an acute hospital physiotherapy department setting in Gloucestershire, England. Physiotherapists recorded data on 201 patients treated using the Keele model in two audits in 2013 and 2014. To assess whether implementation of the stratified model was associated with the anticipated range of treatment sessions, regression analysis of the audit data was used to determine whether high- or medium-risk patients received significantly more treatment sessions than low-risk patients. The analysis controlled for patient characteristics, year, physiotherapists' seniority and physiotherapist. To assess the physiotherapists' views on the usefulness of the stratified model, audit data on this were analysed using framework methods. To assess the potential economic consequences of introducing the stratified care model in Gloucestershire, published economic evaluation findings on back-related National Health Service (NHS) costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and societal productivity losses were applied to audit data on the proportion of patients by risk classification and estimates of local incidence. When the Keele model was implemented, patients received significantly more treatment sessions as the risk-rating increased, in line with the anticipated impact of targeted treatment pathways. Physiotherapists were largely positive about using the model. The potential annual impact of rolling out the model across Gloucestershire is a gain in approximately 30 QALYs, a reduction in productivity losses valued at £1.4 million and almost no change to NHS costs. The Keele model was implemented and risk-specific treatment pathways successfully used for patients presenting with low back pain. Applying published economic evidence to the Gloucestershire locality suggests that substantial health and productivity outcomes would be associated with rollout of the Keele model while being cost-neutral for the NHS.

Hydrogeological investigation for assessment of the sustainability of low-arsenic aquifers as a safe drinking water source in regions with high-arsenic groundwater in Matlab, southeastern Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Brömssen, Mattias; Markussen, Lars; Bhattacharya, Prosun; Ahmed, Kazi Matin; Hossain, Mohammed; Jacks, Gunnar; Sracek, Ondra; Thunvik, Roger; Hasan, M. Aziz; Islam, M. Mainul; Rahman, M. Mokhlesur

2014-10-01

Exploitation of groundwater from shallow, high prolific Holocene sedimentary aquifers has been a main element for achieving safe drinking water and food security in Bangladesh. However, the presence of elevated levels of geogenic arsenic (As) in these aquifers has undermined this success. Except for targeting safe aquifers through installations of tubewells to greater depth, no mitigation option has been successfully implemented on a larger scale. The objective of this study has been to characterise the hydrostratigraphy, groundwater flow patterns, the hydraulic properties to assess the vulnerability of low-arsenic aquifers at Matlab, in south-eastern Bangladesh, one of the worst arsenic-affected areas of the country. Groundwater modelling, conventional pumping test using multilevel piezometers, hydraulic head monitoring in piezometer nests, 14C dating of groundwater and assessment of groundwater abstraction were used. A model comprising of three aquifers covering the top 250 m of the model domain showed the best fit for the calibration evaluation criteria. Irrigation wells in the Matlab area are mostly installed in clusters and account for most of the groundwater abstraction. Even though the hydraulic heads are affected locally by seasonal pumping, the aquifer system is fully recharged from the monsoonal replenishment. Groundwater simulations demonstrated the presence of deep regional flow systems with recharge areas in the eastern, hilly part of Bangladesh and shallow small local flow systems driven by local topography. Based on modelling results and 14C groundwater data, it can be concluded that the natural local flow systems reach a depth of 30 m b.g.l. in the study area. A downward vertical gradient of roughly 0.01 down to 200 m b.g.l. was observed and reproduced by calibrated models. The vertical gradient is mainly the result of the aquifer system and properties rather than abstraction rate, which is too limited at depth to make an imprint. Although irrigation wells substantially change local flow pattern, targeting low-As aquifers seems to be a suitable mitigation option for providing people with safe drinking water. However, installing additional irrigation- or high capacity production wells at the same depth is strongly discouraged as these could substantially change the groundwater flow pattern. The results from the present study and other similar studies can further contribute to develop a rational management and mitigation policy for the future use of the groundwater resources for drinking water supplies.

[Geographical coverage of the Mexican Healthcare System and a spatial analysis of utilization of its General Hospitals in 1998].

PubMed

Hernández-Avila, Juan E; Rodríguez, Mario H; Rodríguez, Norma E; Santos, René; Morales, Evangelina; Cruz, Carlos; Sepúlveda-Amor, Jaime

2002-01-01

To describe the geographical coverage of the Mexican Healthcare System (MHS) services and to assess the utilization of its General Hospitals. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to include sociodemographic data by locality, the geographical location of all MHS healthcare services, and data on hospital discharge records. A maximum likelihood estimation model was developed to assess the utilization levels of 217 MHS General Hospitals. The model included data on human resources, additional infrastructure, and the population within a 25 km radius. In 1998, 10,806 localities with 72 million inhabitants had at least one public healthcare unit, and 97.2% of the population lived within 50 km of a healthcare unit; however, over 18 million people lived in rural localities without a healthcare unit. The mean annual hospital occupation rate was 48.5 +/- 28.5 per 100 bed/years, with high variability within and between states. Hospital occupation was significantly associated with the number of physicians in the unit, and in the Mexican Institute of Social Security units utilization was associated with additional health infrastructure, and with the population's poverty index. GIS analysis allows improved estimation of the coverage and utilization of MHS hospitals.

Assessing the vertical structure of baroclinic tidal currents in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timko, Patrick; Arbic, Brian; Scott, Robert

2010-05-01

Tidal forcing plays an important role in many aspects of oceanography. Mixing, transport of particulates and internal wave generation are just three examples of local phenomena that may depend on the strength of local tidal currents. Advances in satellite altimetry have made an assessment of the global barotropic tide possible. However, the vertical structure of the tide may only be observed by deployment of instruments throughout the water column. Typically these observations are conducted at pre-determined depths based upon the interest of the observer. The high cost of such observations often limits both the number and the length of the observations resulting in a limit to our knowledge of the vertical structure of tidal currents. One way to expand our insight into the baroclinic structure of the ocean is through the use of numerical models. We compare the vertical structure of the global baroclinic tidal velocities in 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) to a global database of current meter records. The model output is a subset of a 5 year global simulation that resolves the eddying general circulation, barotropic tides and baroclinic tides using 32 vertical layers. The density structure within the simulation is both vertically and horizontally non-uniform. In addition to buoyancy forcing the model is forced by astronomical tides and winds. We estimate the dominant semi-diurnal (M2), and diurnal (K1) tidal constituents of the model data using classical harmonic analysis. In regions where current meter record coverage is adequate, the model skill in replicating the vertical structure of the dominant diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal currents is assessed based upon the strength, orientation and phase of the tidal ellipses. We also present a global estimate of the baroclinic tidal energy at fixed depths estimated from the model output.

Modelling of the urban concentrations of PM2.5 on a high resolution for a period of 35 years, for the assessment of lifetime exposure and health effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukkonen, Jaakko; Kangas, Leena; Kauhaniemi, Mari; Sofiev, Mikhail; Aarnio, Mia; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Kousa, Anu; Karppinen, Ari

2018-06-01

Reliable and self-consistent data on air quality are needed for an extensive period of time for conducting long-term, or even lifetime health impact assessments. We have modelled the urban-scale concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area for a period of 35 years, from 1980 to 2014. The regional background concentrations were evaluated based on reanalyses of the atmospheric composition on global and European scales, using the SILAM model. The high-resolution urban computations included both the emissions originated from vehicular traffic (separately exhaust and suspension emissions) and those from small-scale combustion, and were conducted using the road network dispersion model CAR-FMI and the multiple-source Gaussian dispersion model UDM-FMI. The modelled concentrations of PM2.5 agreed fairly well with the measured data at a regional background station and at four urban measurement stations, during 1999-2014. The modelled concentration trends were also evaluated for earlier years, until 1988, using proxy analyses. There was no systematic deterioration of the agreement of predictions and data for earlier years (the 1980s and 1990s), compared with the results for more recent years (2000s and early 2010s). The local vehicular emissions were about 5 times higher in the 1980s, compared with the emissions during the latest considered years. The local small-scale combustion emissions increased slightly over time. The highest urban concentrations of PM2.5 occurred in the 1980s; these have since decreased to about to a half of the highest values. In general, regional background was the largest contribution in this area. Vehicular exhaust has been the most important local source, but the relative shares of both small-scale combustion and vehicular non-exhaust emissions have increased in time. The study has provided long-term, high-resolution concentration databases on regional and urban scales that can be used for the assessment of health effects associated with air pollution.

The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, A. J.

2015-12-01

Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all projects are undertaken with strong involvement of local scientific and risk reduction communities. Open-source software and careful documentation of the methodologies create full transparency of the modelling process, so that results can be reproduced any time by third parties.

Ecological genomics meets community-level modelling of biodiversity: mapping the genomic landscape of current and future environmental adaptation.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Keller, Stephen R

2015-01-01

Local adaptation is a central feature of most species occupying spatially heterogeneous environments, and may factor critically in responses to environmental change. However, most efforts to model the response of species to climate change ignore intraspecific variation due to local adaptation. Here, we present a new perspective on spatial modelling of organism-environment relationships that combines genomic data and community-level modelling to develop scenarios regarding the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to environmental change. Rather than modelling species within communities, we use these techniques to model large numbers of loci across genomes. Using balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) as a case study, we demonstrate how our framework can accommodate nonlinear responses of loci to environmental gradients. We identify a threshold response to temperature in the circadian clock gene GIGANTEA-5 (GI5), suggesting that this gene has experienced strong local adaptation to temperature. We also demonstrate how these methods can map ecological adaptation from genomic data, including the identification of predicted differences in the genetic composition of populations under current and future climates. Community-level modelling of genomic variation represents an important advance in landscape genomics and spatial modelling of biodiversity that moves beyond species-level assessments of climate change vulnerability. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The Future Role of Information Technology in Erosion Modelling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Natural resources management and decision-making is a complex process requiring cooperation and communication among federal, state, and local stakeholders balancing biophysical and socio-economic concerns. Predicting soil erosion is common practice in natural resource management for assessing the e...

Development of Advanced Modeling Tools for Hotpot Analysis of Transportation Emissions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-29

Hot-spot analysis, also known as project-level analysis, assesses impacts of transportation emissions on local air pollution of carbon monoxide (CO), air toxics and particulate matter (PM). It is required for regional transportation plans (RTP), tran...

Space shuttle SRM plume expansion sensitivity analysis. [flow characteristics of exhaust gases from solid propellant rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, S. D.; Tevepaugh, J. A.; Penny, M. M.

1975-01-01

The exhaust plumes of the space shuttle solid rocket motors can have a significant effect on the base pressure and base drag of the shuttle vehicle. A parametric analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle of analytical solid rocket motor flow fields to various analytical input parameters and operating conditions. The results of the analysis are presented and conclusions reached regarding the sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle to each parameter investigated. Operating conditions parametrically varied were chamber pressure, nozzle inlet angle, nozzle throat radius of curvature ratio and propellant particle loading. Empirical particle parameters investigated were mean size, local drag coefficient and local heat transfer coefficient. Sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle to gas thermochemistry model and local drag coefficient model assumptions were determined.

Effects of micro-structure on aerodynamics of Coccinella septempunctata elytra (ladybird) in forward flight as assessed via electron microscopy.

PubMed

Xiang, Jinwu; Liu, Kai; Li, Daochun; Du, Jianxun

2017-11-01

The effects of micro-structure on aerodynamics of Coccinella septempunctata (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) elytra in forward flight were investigated. The micro-structure was examined by a scanning electron microscope and a digital microscope. Based on the experimental results, five elytron models were constructed to separately investigate the effects of the camber and the local corrugation in both leading edge and trailing edge on aerodynamics. Computational fluid dynamic simulations of five elytron models were conducted by solving the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the Reynolds number of 245. The results show that camber and the local corrugation in the leading edge play significant roles in improving the aerodynamic performance, while the local corrugation in the trailing edge has little effect on aerodynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models in Validating Test Dimensionality: An Example of K-12 Large-Scale Science Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Ying; Jiao, Hong; Lissitz, Robert W.

2012-01-01

This study investigated the application of multidimensional item response theory (IRT) models to validate test structure and dimensionality. Multiple content areas or domains within a single subject often exist in large-scale achievement tests. Such areas or domains may cause multidimensionality or local item dependence, which both violate the…

Assessing the Local Need for Family and Child Care Services: A Small Area Utilization Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Percy, Andrew; Carr-Hill, Roy; Dixon, Paul; Jamison, James Q.

2000-01-01

Describes study of administrative data from Northern Ireland on the costs of family and child care services, using small area utilization modeling, to derive a new set of needs indicators that could be used within the family and child care capitation funding formula. Argues that small area utilization modeling produces a fairer and more equitable…

Predicting Future Training Opportunities Using the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-10-01

not require surveys of local populations or other time-intensive data gathering methods. ERDC/CERL SR-07-15 3 board records, local chamber of commerce records...neighbor, Fort Benning has been identified as an Army installation threatened by encroachment (Fort Benning 2004; Greater Columbus Georgia Chamber of Commerce 2004...worked with the Greater Columbus Consolidated Chamber of Commerce to create a Joint Land Use (JLUS) plan intended to implement buffer zones, land

Bayesian comparison of protein structures using partial Procrustes distance.

PubMed

Ejlali, Nasim; Faghihi, Mohammad Reza; Sadeghi, Mehdi

2017-09-26

An important topic in bioinformatics is the protein structure alignment. Some statistical methods have been proposed for this problem, but most of them align two protein structures based on the global geometric information without considering the effect of neighbourhood in the structures. In this paper, we provide a Bayesian model to align protein structures, by considering the effect of both local and global geometric information of protein structures. Local geometric information is incorporated to the model through the partial Procrustes distance of small substructures. These substructures are composed of β-carbon atoms from the side chains. Parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. We evaluate the performance of our model through some simulation studies. Furthermore, we apply our model to a real dataset and assess the accuracy and convergence rate. Results show that our model is much more efficient than previous approaches.

Assessment of the WRF-ARW model during fog conditions in a coastal arid region using different PBL schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Temimi, Marouane; Chaouch, Naira; Weston, Michael; Ghedira, Hosni

2017-04-01

This study covers five fog events reported in 2014 at Abu Dhabi International Airport in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We assess the performance of WRF-ARW model during fog conditions and we intercompare seven different PBL schemes and assess their impact on the performance of the simulations. Seven PBL schemes, namely, Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), Moller-Yamada Nakanishi and Niino (MYNN) level 2.5, Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE-EDMF), Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM2), Grenier-Bretherton-McCaa (GBM) and MYNN level 3 were tested. Radiosonde data from the Abu Dhabi International Airport and surface measurements of relative humidity (RH), dew point temperature, wind speed, and temperature profiles were used to assess the performance of the model. All PBL schemes showed comparable skills with relatively higher performance with the QNSE scheme. The average RH Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and BIAS for all PBLs were 15.75 % and -9.07 %, respectively, whereas the obtained RMSE and BIAS when QNSE was used were 14.65 % and -6.3 % respectively. Comparable skills were obtained for the rest of the variables. Local PBL schemes showed better performance than non-local schemes. Discrepancies between simulated and observed values were higher at the surface level compared to high altitude values. The sensitivity to lead time showed that best simulation performances were obtained when the lead time varies between 12 and 18 hours. In addition, the results of the simulations show that better performance is obtained when the starting condition is dry.

High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

PubMed

de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

2015-02-17

Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

Separating the air quality impact of a major highway and nearby sources by nonparametric trajectory analysis.

PubMed

Henry, Ronald C; Vette, Alan; Norris, Gary; Vedantham, Ram; Kimbrough, Sue; Shores, Richard C

2011-12-15

Nonparametric Trajectory Analysis (NTA), a receptor-oriented model, was used to assess the impact of local sources of air pollution at monitoring sites located adjacent to highway I-15 in Las Vegas, NV. Measurements of black carbon, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide concentrations were collected from December 2008 to December 2009. The purpose of the study was to determine the impact of the highway at three downwind monitoring stations using an upwind station to measure background concentrations. NTA was used to precisely determine the contribution of the highway to the average concentrations measured at the monitoring stations accounting for the spatially heterogeneous contributions of other local urban sources. NTA uses short time average concentrations, 5 min in this case, and constructed local back-trajectories from similarly short time average wind speed and direction to locate and quantify contributions from local source regions. Averaged over an entire year, the decrease of concentrations with distance from the highway was found to be consistent with previous studies. For this study, the NTA model is shown to be a reliable approach to quantify the impact of the highway on local air quality in an urban area with other local sources.

Local Public Health Systems and the Incidence of Sexually Transmitted Diseases

PubMed Central

Chen, Jie; Owusu-Edusei, Kwame; Suh, Allen; Bekemeier, Betty

2012-01-01

Objectives. We examined the associations of local public health system organization and local health department resources with county-level sexually transmitted disease (STD) incidence rates in large US health jurisdictions. Methods. We linked annual county STD incidence data (2005–2008) to local health department director responses (n = 211) to the 2006 wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Local Public Health Systems, the 2005 national Local Health Department Profile Survey, and the Area Resource File. We used nested mixed effects regression models to assess the relative contribution of local public health system organization, local health department financial and resource factors, and sociodemographic factors known to be associated with STD incidence to county-level (n = 307) STD incidence. Results. Jurisdictions with local governing boards had significantly lower county-level STD incidence. Local public health systems with comprehensive services where local health departments shoulder much of the effort had higher county-level STD rates than did conventional systems. Conclusions. More integration of system partners in local public health system activities, through governance and interorganizational arrangements, may reduce the incidence and burden of STDs. PMID:22813090

Modified-BRISQUE as no reference image quality assessment for structural MR images.

PubMed

Chow, Li Sze; Rajagopal, Heshalini

2017-11-01

An effective and practical Image Quality Assessment (IQA) model is needed to assess the image quality produced from any new hardware or software in MRI. A highly competitive No Reference - IQA (NR - IQA) model called Blind/Referenceless Image Spatial Quality Evaluator (BRISQUE) initially designed for natural images were modified to evaluate structural MR images. The BRISQUE model measures the image quality by using the locally normalized luminance coefficients, which were used to calculate the image features. The modified-BRISQUE model trained a new regression model using MR image features and Difference Mean Opinion Score (DMOS) from 775 MR images. Two types of benchmarks: objective and subjective assessments were used as performance evaluators for both original and modified-BRISQUE models. There was a high correlation between the modified-BRISQUE with both benchmarks, and they were higher than those for the original BRISQUE. There was a significant percentage improvement in their correlation values. The modified-BRISQUE was statistically better than the original BRISQUE. The modified-BRISQUE model can accurately measure the image quality of MR images. It is a practical NR-IQA model for MR images without using reference images. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism.

PubMed

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-08-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species-environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile-climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r (2) = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r (2) = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses.

You are lost without a map: Navigating the sea of protein structures.

PubMed

Lamb, Audrey L; Kappock, T Joseph; Silvaggi, Nicholas R

2015-04-01

X-ray crystal structures propel biochemistry research like no other experimental method, since they answer many questions directly and inspire new hypotheses. Unfortunately, many users of crystallographic models mistake them for actual experimental data. Crystallographic models are interpretations, several steps removed from the experimental measurements, making it difficult for nonspecialists to assess the quality of the underlying data. Crystallographers mainly rely on "global" measures of data and model quality to build models. Robust validation procedures based on global measures now largely ensure that structures in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) are largely correct. However, global measures do not allow users of crystallographic models to judge the reliability of "local" features in a region of interest. Refinement of a model to fit into an electron density map requires interpretation of the data to produce a single "best" overall model. This process requires inclusion of most probable conformations in areas of poor density. Users who misunderstand this can be misled, especially in regions of the structure that are mobile, including active sites, surface residues, and especially ligands. This article aims to equip users of macromolecular models with tools to critically assess local model quality. Structure users should always check the agreement of the electron density map and the derived model in all areas of interest, even if the global statistics are good. We provide illustrated examples of interpreted electron density as a guide for those unaccustomed to viewing electron density. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular- and Domain-level Microstructure-dependent Material Model for Nano-segregated Polyurea

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-15

material subroutine VUMAT of ABAQUS /Explicit (Dassault Systems, 2010), a commercial finite element code. This subroutine is called by the ABAQUS solver...rate of change of the local internal thermal energy is equal to the corresponding rate of dissipative work. Critical assessment of this model identified...The model also takes into account the plastic expansion or contraction of voids and therefore the stresses are appropriately modified to account for

Does Physical Activity Mediate the Associations Between Local-Area Descriptive Norms, Built Environment Walkability, and Glycosylated Hemoglobin?

PubMed

Carroll, Suzanne J; Niyonsenga, Theo; Coffee, Neil T; Taylor, Anne W; Daniel, Mark

2017-08-23

Associations between local-area residential features and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA 1c ) may be mediated by individual-level health behaviors. Such indirect effects have rarely been tested. This study assessed whether individual-level self-reported physical activity mediated the influence of local-area descriptive norms and objectively expressed walkability on 10-year change in HbA 1c . HbA 1c was assessed three times for adults in a 10-year population-based biomedical cohort ( n = 4056). Local-area norms specific to each participant were calculated, aggregating responses from a separate statewide surveillance survey for 1600 m road-network buffers centered on participant addresses (local prevalence of overweight/obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m²) and physical inactivity (<150 min/week)). Separate latent growth models estimated direct and indirect (through physical activity) effects of local-area exposures on change in HbA 1c , accounting for spatial clustering and covariates (individual-level age, sex, smoking status, marital status, employment and education, and area-level median household income). HbA 1c worsened over time. Local-area norms directly and indirectly predicted worsening HbA 1c trajectories. Walkability was directly and indirectly protective of worsening HbA 1c . Local-area descriptive norms and walkability influence cardiometabolic risk trajectory through individual-level physical activity. Efforts to reduce population cardiometabolic risk should consider the extent of local-area unhealthful behavioral norms and walkability in tailoring strategies to improve physical activity.

Does Physical Activity Mediate the Associations between Local-Area Descriptive Norms, Built Environment Walkability, and Glycosylated Hemoglobin?

PubMed Central

Daniel, Mark

2017-01-01

Associations between local-area residential features and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) may be mediated by individual-level health behaviors. Such indirect effects have rarely been tested. This study assessed whether individual-level self-reported physical activity mediated the influence of local-area descriptive norms and objectively expressed walkability on 10-year change in HbA1c. HbA1c was assessed three times for adults in a 10-year population-based biomedical cohort (n = 4056). Local-area norms specific to each participant were calculated, aggregating responses from a separate statewide surveillance survey for 1600 m road-network buffers centered on participant addresses (local prevalence of overweight/obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2) and physical inactivity (<150 min/week)). Separate latent growth models estimated direct and indirect (through physical activity) effects of local-area exposures on change in HbA1c, accounting for spatial clustering and covariates (individual-level age, sex, smoking status, marital status, employment and education, and area-level median household income). HbA1c worsened over time. Local-area norms directly and indirectly predicted worsening HbA1c trajectories. Walkability was directly and indirectly protective of worsening HbA1c. Local-area descriptive norms and walkability influence cardiometabolic risk trajectory through individual-level physical activity. Efforts to reduce population cardiometabolic risk should consider the extent of local-area unhealthful behavioral norms and walkability in tailoring strategies to improve physical activity. PMID:28832552

Local meshing plane analysis as a source of information about the gear quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mączak, Jędrzej

2013-07-01

In the paper the application of the local meshing plane concept is discussed and applied for detecting of tooth degradation due to fatigue, and for overall gear quality assessment. Knowing the kinematic properties of the machine (i.e. gear tooth numbers) it is possible to modify the diagnostic signal in such a manner that its fragments will be linked to different rotating parts. This allows for presentation of either raw or processed gearbox signal in a form of three dimensional map on the plane "pinion teeth×gear teeth", called local meshing plane. The meshing plane in Cartesian coordinates z1×z2 allows for precise location and assessment of gear faults in terms of meshing quality of consecutive tooth pairs. Although the method was applied to simulated signals generated by the gearbox model, similar results were obtained for the measurement signals recorded during the back-to-back test stand experiment. The described method could be used for assessing the manufacturing quality of gears, the assembly quality as well as for the gear failure evaluation during normal exploitation.

Modeling the dynamic stiffness of cracked reinforced concrete beams under low-amplitude vibration loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Tengfei; Castel, Arnaud

2016-04-01

In this paper, a model, initially developed to calculate the stiffness of cracked reinforced concrete beams under static loading, is used to assess the dynamic stiffness. The model allows calculating the average inertia of cracked beams by taking into account the effect of bending cracks (primary cracks) and steel-concrete bond damage (i.e. interfacial microcracks). Free and forced vibration experiments are used to assess the performance of the model. The respective influence of bending cracks and steel-concrete bond damage on both static and dynamic responses is analyzed. The comparison between experimental and simulated deflections confirms that the effects of both bending cracks and steel-concrete bond loss should be taken into account to assess reinforced concrete stiffness under service static loading. On the contrary, comparison of experimental and calculated dynamic responses reveals that localized steel-concrete bond damages do not influence significantly the dynamic stiffness and the fundamental frequency.

A Local to National Scale Catchment Model Simulation Framework for Hydrological Predictions and Impact Assessments Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Quinn, Niall; Dunne, Toby; Lane, Rosie; Bates, Paul; Wagener, Thorsten; Woods, Ross; Neal, Jeff; Howden, Nicholas; Musuuza, Jude

2017-04-01

There is a huge challenge in developing hydrological model structures that can be used for hypothesis testing, prediction, impact assessment and risk analyses over a wide range of spatial scales. There are many reasons why this is the case, from computational demands, to how we define and characterize different features and pathway connectivities in the landscape, that differ depending on the objectives of the study. However there is certainly a need more than ever to explore the trade-offs between the complexity of modelling applied (i.e. spatial discretization, levels of process representation, complexity of landscape representation) compared to the benefits realized in terms of predictive capability and robustness of these predictions during hydrological extremes and during change. Furthermore, there is a further balance, particularly associated with prediction uncertainties, in that it is not desirable to have modelling systems that are too complex compared to the observed data that would ever be available to apply them. This is particularly the case when models are applied to quantify national impact assessments, especially if these are based on validation assessments from smaller more detailed case studies. Therefore the hydrological community needs modelling tools and approaches that enable these trade-offs to be explored and to understand the level of representation needed in models to be 'fit-for-purpose' for a given application. This paper presents a catchment scale national modelling framework based on Dynamic-TOPMODEL specifically setup to fulfil these aims. A key component of the modelling framework is it's structural flexibility, as is the ability to assess model outputs using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model build has been automated to work at any spatial scale to the national scale, and within that to control the level of spatial discretisation and connectivity of locally accounted landscape elements in the form of hydrological response units (HRU's). This allows for the explicit consideration of spatial rainfall fields, landscape, soils and geological attributes and the spatial connectivity of hydrological flow pathways to explore what level of modelling complexity we need for different prediction problems. We shall present this framework and show how it can be used in flood and drought risk analyses as well as include attributes and features within the landscape to explore societal and climate impacts effectively within an uncertainty analyses framework.

A data centred method to estimate and map how the local distribution of daily precipitation is changing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nick

2014-05-01

Estimates of how our climate is changing are needed locally in order to inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on a method to transform daily observations of precipitation into patterns of local climate change. We develop a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes, to specifically address the challenges presented by daily precipitation data. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the relative amount of precipitation in those days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily precipitation from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the pattern of change at a given threshold of precipitation and with geographical location. This is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. Our results show regionally consistent patterns of systematic increase in precipitation on the wettest days, and of drying across all days which is of potential value in adaptation planning. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, 2013, S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO₂ and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health.

PubMed

Rao, Meenakshi; George, Linda A; Shandas, Vivek; Rosenstiel, Todd N

2017-07-10

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants-and thus human health-is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO₂ is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO₂ observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO₂ with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO 2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO₂ and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO₂, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO₂ associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4-12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and -1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health.

Local soil effects on the Ground Motion Prediction model for the Racha region in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorjiashvili, N.; Shengelia, I.; Otinashvili, M.; Tvaliashvili, A.

2016-12-01

The Caucasus is a region of numerous natural hazards and ensuing disasters. Analysis of the losses due to past disasters indicates those most catastrophic in the region have historically been due to strong earthquakes. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is the peak ground acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment that was selected for the analysis. One of the most important topics that have a significant influence on earthquake records is the site ground conditions that are the main issue of the study because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. In the study earthquake records were selected for the Racha region in Georgia which has the highest seismic activity in the region. Next, new GMP models are obtained based on new digital data recorded in the same area. After removing the site effect the earthquake records on the rock site were obtained. Thus, two GMP models were obtained: one for the ground surface and the other for the rock site. At the end, comparison was done for the both models in order to analyze the influence of the local soil conditions on the GMP model.

Measuring Local Public Health and Primary Care Collaboration: A Practice-Based Research Approach.

PubMed

Gyllstrom, Elizabeth; Gearin, Kimberly; Nease, Donald; Bekemeier, Betty; Pratt, Rebekah

2018-06-07

To describe the degree of public health and primary care collaboration at the local level and develop a model framework of collaboration, the Community Collaboration Health Model (CCHM). Mixed-methods, cross-sectional surveys, and semistructured, key informant interviews. All local health jurisdictions in Colorado, Minnesota, Washington, and Wisconsin. Leaders from each jurisdiction were identified to describe local collaboration. Eighty percent of local health directors completed our survey (n = 193), representing 80% of jurisdictions. The parallel primary care survey had a 31% response rate (n = 128), representing 50% of jurisdictions. Twenty pairs of local health directors and primary care leaders participated in key informant interviews. Thirty-seven percent of jurisdictions were classified as having strong foundational and energizing characteristics in the model. Ten percent displayed high energizing/low foundational characteristics, 11% had high foundational/low energizing characteristics, and 42% of jurisdictions were low on both. Respondents reported wide variation in relationship factors. They generally agreed that foundational characteristics were present in current working relationships but were less likely to agree that relationships had factors promoting sustainability or innovation. Both sectors valued working together in principle, yet few did. Identifying shared priorities and achieving tangible benefits may be critical to realizing sustained relationships resulting in population health improvement. Our study reveals broad variation in experiences among local jurisdictions in our sample. Tools, such as the CCHM, and technical assistance may be helpful to support advancing collaboration. Dedicated funding, reimbursement redesign, improved data systems, and data sharing capability are key components of promoting collaboration. Yet, even in the absence of new reimbursement models or funding mechanisms, there are steps leaders can take to build and sustain their relationships. The self-assessment tool and the CCHM can identify opportunities for improving collaboration and link practitioners to strategies.

Quantifying how the full local distribution of daily precipitation is changing and its uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

The study of the consequences of global warming would benefit from quantification of geographical patterns of change at specific thresholds or quantiles, and better understandings of the intrinsic uncertainties in such quantities. For precipitation a range of indices have been developed which focus on high percentiles (e.g. rainfall falling on days above the 99th percentile) and on absolute extremes (e.g. maximum annual one day precipitation) but scientific assessments are best undertaken in the context of changes in the whole climatic distribution. Furthermore, the relevant thresholds for climate-vulnerable policy decisions, adaptation planning and impact assessments, vary according to the specific sector and location of interest. We present a methodology which maintains the flexibility to provide information at different thresholds for different downstream users, both scientists and decision makers. We develop a method[1,2] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes in daily precipitation data. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the amount of precipitation on those days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves not only determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest and smallest changes, but also those at which uncertainty undermines the ability to make confident statements about any change there may be. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[3] which are timeseries of local daily precipitation across Europe over the last 60+ years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the geographical pattern of change at given thresholds of precipitation. This information is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, 2013 [2] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2015 Limits to the quantification of local climate change, ERL,10, 094018 (2015), ERL,10, 094018 [3] M R Haylock et al . 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

On valuing patches: Estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderlin, J.S.; Waser, P.M.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2012-01-01

Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture-recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution metrics' to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source-sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Developing Quality Indicators and Auditing Protocols from Formal Guideline Models: Knowledge Representation and Transformations

PubMed Central

Advani, Aneel; Goldstein, Mary; Shahar, Yuval; Musen, Mark A.

2003-01-01

Automated quality assessment of clinician actions and patient outcomes is a central problem in guideline- or standards-based medical care. In this paper we describe a model representation and algorithm for deriving structured quality indicators and auditing protocols from formalized specifications of guidelines used in decision support systems. We apply the model and algorithm to the assessment of physician concordance with a guideline knowledge model for hypertension used in a decision-support system. The properties of our solution include the ability to derive automatically (1) context-specific and (2) case-mix-adjusted quality indicators that (3) can model global or local levels of detail about the guideline (4) parameterized by defining the reliability of each indicator or element of the guideline. PMID:14728124

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

2003-01-01

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascale, S.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.

2010-07-01

The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind) due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability. This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency. This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases: 1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard; 2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system; 3. the definition of the assessment model of systemic vulnerability in landslide-prone areas. To highlight the potentialities of the proposed approach we have described a specific case study of landslide hazard in the local council area of Potenza.

A participatory model for improving occupational health and safety: improving informal sector working conditions in Thailand.

PubMed

Manothum, Aniruth; Rukijkanpanich, Jittra; Thawesaengskulthai, Damrong; Thampitakkul, Boonwa; Chaikittiporn, Chalermchai; Arphorn, Sara

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the implementation of an Occupational Health and Safety Management Model for informal sector workers in Thailand. The studied model was characterized by participatory approaches to preliminary assessment, observation of informal business practices, group discussion and participation, and the use of environmental measurements and samples. This model consisted of four processes: capacity building, risk analysis, problem solving, and monitoring and control. The participants consisted of four local labor groups from different regions, including wood carving, hand-weaving, artificial flower making, and batik processing workers. The results demonstrated that, as a result of applying the model, the working conditions of the informal sector workers had improved to meet necessary standards. This model encouraged the use of local networks, which led to cooperation within the groups to create appropriate technologies to solve their problems. The authors suggest that this model could effectively be applied elsewhere to improve informal sector working conditions on a broader scale.

Health Impact of PM10, PM2.5 and Black Carbon Exposure Due to Different Source Sectors in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Umea, Sweden

PubMed Central

Eneroth, Kristina; Gidhagen, Lars; Johansson, Christer; Omstedt, Gunnar; Engström Nylén, Anders; Forsberg, Bertil

2017-01-01

The most important anthropogenic sources of primary particulate matter (PM) in ambient air in Europe are exhaust and non-exhaust emissions from road traffic and combustion of solid biomass. There is convincing evidence that PM, almost regardless of source, has detrimental health effects. An important issue in health impact assessments is what metric, indicator and exposure-response function to use for different types of PM. The aim of this study is to describe sectorial contributions to PM exposure and related premature mortality for three Swedish cities: Gothenburg, Stockholm and Umea. Exposure is calculated with high spatial resolution using atmospheric dispersion models. Attributed premature mortality is calculated separately for the main local sources and the contribution from long-range transport (LRT), applying different relative risks. In general, the main part of the exposure is due to LRT, while for black carbon, the local sources are equally or more important. The major part of the premature deaths is in our assessment related to local emissions, with road traffic and residential wood combustion having the largest impact. This emphasizes the importance to resolve within-city concentration gradients when assessing exposure. It also implies that control actions on local PM emissions have a strong potential in abatement strategies. PMID:28686215

Impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone in Europe for present day and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

Road traffic is an important anthropogenic source of NOx, CO and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) which act as precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone. The formation of ozone is highly non-linear. This means that the contribution of the road traffic sector cannot directly be derived from the amount of emitted species, because they are also determined by local emissions of other anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, long range transport of precursors and ozone can play an important role in determining the local ozone budget. For a complete assessment of the impact of road traffic emissions it is therefore important to resolve both, local emissions and long range transport. This can be achieved by the use of the newly developed MECO(n) model system, which on-line couples the global chemistry-climate-model EMAC with the regional chemistry-climate-model COSMO-CLM/MESSy. Both models use the same chemical speciation. This allows a highly consistent model chain from the global to the local scale. To quantify the contribution of the road traffic emissions to tropospheric ozone we use an accounting system of the relevant reaction pathways of the different species from different sources (called tagging method). This tagging scheme is implemented consistently on all scales, allowing a direct comparison of the contributions. With this model configuration we investigate the impact of road traffic emissions to the tropospheric ozone budget in Europe. For the year 2008 we compare different emission scenarios and investigate the influence of both model and emission resolution. In addition, results of a mitigation scenario for the year 2030 are presented. They indicate that the contribution of the road traffic sector can be reduced by local reductions of emissions during summer. During winter the importance of long range transport increases. This can lead to increased contributions of the road traffic sector (e.g. by increased emissions in the US) even if local emissions are reduced.

Local effect of zoledronic acid on new bone formation in posterolateral spinal fusion with demineralized bone matrix in a murine model.

PubMed

Zwolak, Pawel; Farei-Campagna, Jan; Jentzsch, Thorsten; von Rechenberg, Brigitte; Werner, Clément M

2018-01-01

Posterolateral spinal fusion is a common orthopaedic surgery performed to treat degenerative and traumatic deformities of the spinal column. In posteriolateral spinal fusion, different osteoinductive demineralized bone matrix products have been previously investigated. We evaluated the effect of locally applied zoledronic acid in combination with commercially available demineralized bone matrix putty on new bone formation in posterolateral spinal fusion in a murine in vivo model. A posterolateral sacral spine fusion in murine model was used to evaluate the new bone formation. We used the sacral spine fusion model to model the clinical situation in which a bone graft or demineralized bone matrix is applied after dorsal instrumentation of the spine. In our study, group 1 received decortications only (n = 10), group 2 received decortication, and absorbable collagen sponge carrier, group 3 received decortication and absorbable collagen sponge carrier with zoledronic acid in dose 10 µg, group 4 received demineralized bone matrix putty (DBM putty) plus decortication (n = 10), and group 5 received DBM putty, decortication and locally applied zoledronic acid in dose 10 µg. Imaging was performed using MicroCT for new bone formation assessment. Also, murine spines were harvested for histopathological analysis 10 weeks after surgery. The surgery performed through midline posterior approach was reproducible. In group with decortication alone there was no new bone formation. Application of demineralized bone matrix putty alone produced new bone formation which bridged the S1-S4 laminae. Local application of zoledronic acid to demineralized bone matrix putty resulted in significant increase of new bone formation as compared to demineralized bone matrix putty group alone. A single local application of zoledronic acid with DBM putty during posterolateral fusion in sacral murine spine model increased significantly new bone formation in situ in our model. Therefore, our results justify further investigations to potentially use local application of zoledronic acid in future clinical studies.

Nowcasting the spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas.

PubMed

Johansson, Michael A; Powers, Ann M; Pesik, Nicki; Cohen, Nicole J; Staples, J Erin

2014-01-01

In December 2013, the first locally-acquired chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections in the Americas were reported in the Caribbean. As of May 16, 55,992 cases had been reported and the outbreak was still spreading. Identification of newly affected locations is paramount to intervention activities, but challenging due to limitations of current data on the outbreak and on CHIKV transmission. We developed models to make probabilistic predictions of spread based on current data considering these limitations. Branching process models capturing travel patterns, local infection prevalence, climate dependent transmission factors, and associated uncertainty estimates were developed to predict probable locations for the arrival of CHIKV-infected travelers and for the initiation of local transmission. Many international cities and areas close to where transmission has already occurred were likely to have received infected travelers. Of the ten locations predicted to be the most likely locations for introduced CHIKV transmission in the first four months of the outbreak, eight had reported local cases by the end of April. Eight additional locations were likely to have had introduction leading to local transmission in April, but with substantial uncertainty. Branching process models can characterize the risk of CHIKV introduction and spread during the ongoing outbreak. Local transmission of CHIKV is currently likely in several Caribbean locations and possible, though uncertain, for other locations in the continental United States, Central America, and South America. This modeling framework may also be useful for other outbreaks where the risk of pathogen spread over heterogeneous transportation networks must be rapidly assessed on the basis of limited information.

Method of assessing the state of a rolling bearing based on the relative compensation distance of multiple-domain features and locally linear embedding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Shouqiang; Ma, Danyang; Wang, Yujing; Lan, Chaofeng; Chen, Qingguo; Mikulovich, V. I.

2017-03-01

To effectively assess different fault locations and different degrees of performance degradation of a rolling bearing with a unified assessment index, a novel state assessment method based on the relative compensation distance of multiple-domain features and locally linear embedding is proposed. First, for a single-sample signal, time-domain and frequency-domain indexes can be calculated for the original vibration signal and each sensitive intrinsic mode function obtained by improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition, and the singular values of the sensitive intrinsic mode function matrix can be extracted by singular value decomposition to construct a high-dimensional hybrid-domain feature vector. Second, a feature matrix can be constructed by arranging each feature vector of multiple samples, the dimensions of each row vector of the feature matrix can be reduced by the locally linear embedding algorithm, and the compensation distance of each fault state of the rolling bearing can be calculated using the support vector machine. Finally, the relative distance between different fault locations and different degrees of performance degradation and the normal-state optimal classification surface can be compensated, and on the basis of the proposed relative compensation distance, the assessment model can be constructed and an assessment curve drawn. Experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively assess different fault locations and different degrees of performance degradation of the rolling bearing under certain conditions.

Field-based landslide susceptibility assessment in a data-scarce environment: the populated areas of the Rwenzori Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Poesen, Jean; Sekajugo, John; Nobile, Adriano; Rossi, Mauro; Thiery, Wim; Kervyn, Matthieu

2018-01-01

The inhabited zone of the Ugandan Rwenzori Mountains is affected by landslides, frequently causing loss of life, damage to infrastructure and loss of livelihood. This area of ca. 1230 km2 is characterized by contrasting geomorphologic, climatic and lithological patterns, resulting in different landslide types. In this study, the spatial pattern of landslide susceptibility is investigated based on an extensive field inventory constructed for five representative areas within the region (153 km2) and containing over 450 landslides. To achieve a reliable susceptibility assessment, the effects of (1) using different topographic data sources and spatial resolutions and (2) changing the scale of assessment by comparing local and regional susceptibility models on the susceptibility model performances are investigated using a pixel-based logistic regression approach. Topographic data are extracted from different digital elevation models (DEMs) based on radar interferometry (SRTM and TanDEM-X) and optical stereophotogrammetry (ASTER DEM). Susceptibility models using the radar-based DEMs tend to outperform the ones using the ASTER DEM. The model spatial resolution is varied between 10, 20, 30 and 90 m. The optimal resolution depends on the location of the investigated area within the region but the lowest model resolution (90 m) rarely yields the best model performances while the highest model resolution (10 m) never results in significant increases in performance compared to the 20 m resolution. Models built for the local case studies generally have similar or better performances than the regional model and better reflect site-specific controlling factors. At the regional level the effect of distinguishing landslide types between shallow and deep-seated landslides is investigated. The separation of landslide types allows us to improve model performances for the prediction of deep-seated landslides and to better understand factors influencing the occurrence of shallow landslides such as tangent curvature and total rainfall. Finally, the landslide susceptibility assessment is overlaid with a population density map in order to identify potential landslide risk hotspots, which could direct research and policy action towards reduced landslide risk in this under-researched, landslide-prone region.

The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: evidence from 555 years of program experience.

PubMed

Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

2005-01-27

Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: Evidence from 555 years of program experience

PubMed Central

Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

2005-01-01

Background Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. Methods This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. Results The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. Conclusions To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context. PMID:15676068

Quantification of localized vertebral deformities using a sparse wavelet-based shape model.

PubMed

Zewail, R; Elsafi, A; Durdle, N

2008-01-01

Medical experts often examine hundreds of spine x-ray images to determine existence of various pathologies. Common pathologies of interest are anterior osteophites, disc space narrowing, and wedging. By careful inspection of the outline shapes of the vertebral bodies, experts are able to identify and assess vertebral abnormalities with respect to the pathology under investigation. In this paper, we present a novel method for quantification of vertebral deformation using a sparse shape model. Using wavelets and Independent component analysis (ICA), we construct a sparse shape model that benefits from the approximation power of wavelets and the capability of ICA to capture higher order statistics in wavelet space. The new model is able to capture localized pathology-related shape deformations, hence it allows for quantification of vertebral shape variations. We investigate the capability of the model to predict localized pathology related deformations. Next, using support-vector machines, we demonstrate the diagnostic capabilities of the method through the discrimination of anterior osteophites in lumbar vertebrae. Experiments were conducted using a set of 150 contours from digital x-ray images of lumbar spine. Each vertebra is labeled as normal or abnormal. Results reported in this work focus on anterior osteophites as the pathology of interest.

Evaluation of a locally homogeneous flow model of spray combustion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mao, C. P.; Szekely, G. A., Jr.; Faeth, G. M.

1980-01-01

A model of spray combustion which employs a second-order turbulence model was developed. The assumption of locally homogeneous flow is made, implying infinitely fast transport rates between the phase. Measurements to test the model were completed for a gaseous n-propane flame and an air atomized n-pentane spray flame, burning in stagnant air at atmospheric pressure. Profiles of mean velocity and temperature, as well as velocity fluctuations and Reynolds stress, were measured in the flames. The predictions for the gas flame were in excellent agreement with the measurements. The predictions for the spray were qualitatively correct, but effects of finite rate interphase transport were evident, resulting in a overstimation of the rate development of the flow. Predictions of spray penetration length at high pressures, including supercritical combustion conditions, were also completed for comparison with earlier measurements. Test conditions involved a pressure atomized n-pentane spray, burning in stagnant air at pressures of 3, 5, and 9 MPa. The comparison between predictions and measurements was fair. This is not a very sensitive test of the model, however, and further high pressure experimental and theoretical results are needed before a satisfactory assessment of the locally homogeneous flow approximation can be made.

Assess Climate Change's Impact on Coastal Rivers using a Coupled Climate-Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Z. G.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; Zang, Z.; Sampson, K. M.; Keim, B. D.

2016-12-01

In this study we present a coupled climate-hydrological model reproducing the water cycle of three coastal river basins along the northern Gulf of Mexico for the past three decades (1985-2014). Model simulated climate condition, surface physics, and streamflow were well validated against in situ data and satellite-derived products, giving us the confidence that the newly developed WRF-Hydro model can be a robust tool for evaluating climate change's impact on hydrological regime. Trend analysis of model simulated monthly and annual time series indicates that local climate is getting hotter and dryer, specifically during the growing season. Wavelet analysis reveals that local evapotranspiration is strongly correlated with temperature, while soil moisture, water surplus, and streamflow are coupled with precipitation. In addition, local climate is closely correlated with large-scale climate dynamics such as AMO and ENSO. A possible change-point is detected around year 2004, after which, the monthly precipitation decreased by 14.2%, evapotranspiration increased by 2.9%, and water surplus decreased by 36.5%. The implication of the difference between the water surplus (runoff) calculated using the classic Thornthwaite method and river discharge estimated using streamflow records to the coastal environment is also discussed.

Using spatial mark-recapture for conservation monitoring of grizzly bear populations in Alberta.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2018-03-26

One of the challenges in conservation is determining patterns and responses in population density and distribution as it relates to habitat and changes in anthropogenic activities. We applied spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) methods, combined with density surface modelling from five grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) management areas (BMAs) in Alberta, Canada, to assess SECR methods and to explore factors influencing bear distribution. Here we used models of grizzly bear habitat and mortality risk to test local density associations using density surface modelling. Results demonstrated BMA-specific factors influenced density, as well as the effects of habitat and topography on detections and movements of bears. Estimates from SECR were similar to those from closed population models and telemetry data, but with similar or higher levels of precision. Habitat was most associated with areas of higher bear density in the north, whereas mortality risk was most associated (negatively) with density of bears in the south. Comparisons of the distribution of mortality risk and habitat revealed differences by BMA that in turn influenced local abundance of bears. Combining SECR methods with density surface modelling increases the resolution of mark-recapture methods by directly inferring the effect of spatial factors on regulating local densities of animals.

An Iterative Local Updating Ensemble Smoother for Estimation and Uncertainty Assessment of Hydrologic Model Parameters With Multimodal Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Lin, Guang; Li, Weixuan; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

2018-03-01

Ensemble smoother (ES) has been widely used in inverse modeling of hydrologic systems. However, for problems where the distribution of model parameters is multimodal, using ES directly would be problematic. One popular solution is to use a clustering algorithm to identify each mode and update the clusters with ES separately. However, this strategy may not be very efficient when the dimension of parameter space is high or the number of modes is large. Alternatively, we propose in this paper a very simple and efficient algorithm, i.e., the iterative local updating ensemble smoother (ILUES), to explore multimodal distributions of model parameters in nonlinear hydrologic systems. The ILUES algorithm works by updating local ensembles of each sample with ES to explore possible multimodal distributions. To achieve satisfactory data matches in nonlinear problems, we adopt an iterative form of ES to assimilate the measurements multiple times. Numerical cases involving nonlinearity and multimodality are tested to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. It is shown that overall the ILUES algorithm can well quantify the parametric uncertainties of complex hydrologic models, no matter whether the multimodal distribution exists.

Financing Solar PV at Government Sites with PPAs and Public Debt (Brochure)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2011-12-01

Historically, state and local governmental agencies have employed one of two models to deploy solar photovoltaic (PV) projects: (1) self-ownership (financed through a variety of means) or (2) third-party ownership through a power purchase agreement (PPA). Morris County, New Jersey, administrators recently pioneered a way to combine many of the benefits of self-ownership and third-party PPAs through a bond-PPA hybrid, frequently referred to as the Morris Model. At the request of the Department of Energy?s Solar Market Transformation group, NREL examined the hybrid model. This fact sheet describes how the hybrid model works, assesses the model?s relative advantages and challengesmore » as compared to self-ownership and the third-party PPA model, provides a quick guide to project implementation, and assesses the replicability of the model in other jurisdictions across the United States.« less

Energy recovery from solid waste. [production engineering model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dalton, C.; Huang, C. J.

1974-01-01

A recent group study on the problem of solid waste disposal provided a decision making model for a community to use in determining the future for its solid waste. The model is a combination of the following factors: technology, legal, social, political, economic and environmental. An assessment of local or community needs determines what form of energy recovery is desirable. A market for low pressure steam or hot water would direct a community to recover energy from solid waste by incineration to generate steam. A fuel gas could be produced by a process known as pyrolysis if there is a local market for a low heating value gaseous fuel. Solid waste can also be used directly as a fuel supplemental to coal in a steam generator. An evaluation of these various processes is made.

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

2016-04-01

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

Response surface modeling-based source contribution analysis and VOC emission control policy assessment in a typical ozone-polluted urban Shunde, China.

PubMed

You, Zhiqiang; Zhu, Yun; Jang, Carey; Wang, Shuxiao; Gao, Jian; Lin, Che-Jen; Li, Minhui; Zhu, Zhenghua; Wei, Hao; Yang, Wenwei

2017-01-01

To develop a sound ozone (O 3 ) pollution control strategy, it is important to well understand and characterize the source contribution due to the complex chemical and physical formation processes of O 3 . Using the "Shunde" city as a pilot summer case study, we apply an innovative response surface modeling (RSM) methodology based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling simulations to identify the O 3 regime and provide dynamic analysis of the precursor contributions to effectively assess the O 3 impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) control strategy. Our results show that Shunde is a typical VOC-limited urban O 3 polluted city. The "Jiangmen" city, as the main upper wind area during July 2014, its VOCs and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions make up the largest contribution (9.06%). On the contrary, the contribution from local (Shunde) emission is lowest (6.35%) among the seven neighbor regions. The local VOCs industrial source emission has the largest contribution comparing to other precursor emission sectors in Shunde. The results of dynamic source contribution analysis further show that the local NO x control could slightly increase the ground O 3 under low (10.00%) and medium (40.00%) reduction ratios, while it could start to turn positive to decrease ground O 3 under the high NO x abatement ratio (75.00%). The real-time assessment of O 3 impacts from VOCs control strategies in Pearl River Delta (PRD) shows that the joint regional VOCs emission control policy will effectively reduce the ground O 3 concentration in Shunde. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Pavement condition assessment to forecast maintenance program on JKR state roads in Petaling district

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamsan, R.; Hafiz, H.; Azlan, A.; Keprawi, M. F.; Malik, A. K. A.; Adamuddin, A.; Abdullah, A. H.; Shafie, A. M.

2018-02-01

This research allows local authorities to project road maintenance in term of activities and financial expenditure through pavement condition assessment and then Highway Development and Management (HDM-4) analysis. Current form of road maintenance carried out by local authority is on reactive manner where corrective actions were taken based on reports recorded. Some went unrecorded hence causing prolonged damages. This causes the local authority unable to project the required cost to maintain the roads. This affects the socio-economy of the surrounding routes. Hence, it is seen, as preventive maintenance of the roads will provide more feasible option in term of work force and finance to the local authority. To overcome this issue, a preventive model was introduced. This was done through pavement condition assessment (PCA) where analysis was done through HDM-4. Nondestructive test and destructive test were conducted in order to provide an indicator to the road's health. This were then analyzed in HDM-4 where the result was benchmarked with maintenance standard. The scope of this research is set to PCA where DT and NDT were performed on the routes of Petaling and the output is analyzed in HDM-4. The result of this research provides a 10 years forecast maintenance budget in maintaining the roads in Petaling. This allows the local authority to perform good practice in term of maintaining the roads while at the same time helps them in forecasting their budget for the upcoming years. This research will have a strong impact on the local socio-economy as well as local road user confidence towards the authority over good practices. This research can be further expanded to other type of roads as well as highway bridges.

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; ...

2018-03-23

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Operator models for delivering municipal solid waste management services in developing countries: Part B: Decision support.

PubMed

Soós, Reka; Whiteman, Andrew D; Wilson, David C; Briciu, Cosmin; Nürnberger, Sofia; Oelz, Barbara; Gunsilius, Ellen; Schwehn, Ekkehard

2017-08-01

This is the second of two papers reporting the results of a major study considering 'operator models' for municipal solid waste management (MSWM) in emerging and developing countries. Part A documents the evidence base, while Part B presents a four-step decision support system for selecting an appropriate operator model in a particular local situation. Step 1 focuses on understanding local problems and framework conditions; Step 2 on formulating and prioritising local objectives; and Step 3 on assessing capacities and conditions, and thus identifying strengths and weaknesses, which underpin selection of the operator model. Step 4A addresses three generic questions, including public versus private operation, inter-municipal co-operation and integration of services. For steps 1-4A, checklists have been developed as decision support tools. Step 4B helps choose locally appropriate models from an evidence-based set of 42 common operator models ( coms); decision support tools here are a detailed catalogue of the coms, setting out advantages and disadvantages of each, and a decision-making flowchart. The decision-making process is iterative, repeating steps 2-4 as required. The advantages of a more formal process include avoiding pre-selection of a particular com known to and favoured by one decision maker, and also its assistance in identifying the possible weaknesses and aspects to consider in the selection and design of operator models. To make the best of whichever operator models are selected, key issues which need to be addressed include the capacity of the public authority as 'client', management in general and financial management in particular.

Assessing hypotheses about nesting site occupancy dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Royle, J. Andrew; Cam, Emmanuelle

2011-01-01

Hypotheses about habitat selection developed in the evolutionary ecology framework assume that individuals, under some conditions, select breeding habitat based on expected fitness in different habitat. The relationship between habitat quality and fitness may be reflected by breeding success of individuals, which may in turn be used to assess habitat quality. Habitat quality may also be assessed via local density: if high-quality sites are preferentially used, high density may reflect high-quality habitat. Here we assessed whether site occupancy dynamics vary with site surrogates for habitat quality. We modeled nest site use probability in a seabird subcolony (the Black-legged Kittiwake, Rissa tridactyla) over a 20-year period. We estimated site persistence (an occupied site remains occupied from time t to t + 1) and colonization through two subprocesses: first colonization (site creation at the timescale of the study) and recolonization (a site is colonized again after being deserted). Our model explicitly incorporated site-specific and neighboring breeding success and conspecific density in the neighborhood. Our results provided evidence that reproductively "successful'' sites have a higher persistence probability than "unsuccessful'' ones. Analyses of site fidelity in marked birds and of survival probability showed that high site persistence predominantly reflects site fidelity, not immediate colonization by new owners after emigration or death of previous owners. There is a negative quadratic relationship between local density and persistence probability. First colonization probability decreases with density, whereas recolonization probability is constant. This highlights the importance of distinguishing initial colonization and recolonization to understand site occupancy. All dynamics varied positively with neighboring breeding success. We found evidence of a positive interaction between site-specific and neighboring breeding success. We addressed local population dynamics using a site occupancy approach integrating hypotheses developed in behavioral ecology to account for individual decisions. This allows development of models of population and metapopulation dynamics that explicitly incorporate ecological and evolutionary processes.

REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

PubMed

Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

2016-05-01

Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of a Shared Leadership Model in Creating a School Culture of Inquiry and Collegiality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khourey-Bowers, Claudia; Dinko, Richard L.; Hart, Raymond G.

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of a Local Systemic Change (LSC) initiative (N = 216) at Year 2 in a 5-year plan. Key questions were: What is the extent of school and teacher involvement?; What is the impact on teacher preparedness, attitudes, and beliefs?; and What is the extent of institutionalization? The model of…

Effects and repercussions of local/hospital-based health technology assessment (HTA): a systematic review.

PubMed

Gagnon, Marie-Pierre; Desmartis, Marie; Poder, Thomas; Witteman, William

2014-10-28

Health technology assessment (HTA) is increasingly performed at the local or hospital level where the costs, impacts, and benefits of health technologies can be directly assessed. Although local/hospital-based HTA has been implemented for more than two decades in some jurisdictions, little is known about its effects and impact on hospital budget, clinical practices, and patient outcomes. We conducted a mixed-methods systematic review that aimed to synthesize current evidence regarding the effects and impact of local/hospital-based HTA. We identified articles through PubMed and Embase and by citation tracking of included studies. We selected qualitative, quantitative, or mixed-methods studies with empirical data about the effects or impact of local/hospital-based HTA on decision-making, budget, or perceptions of stakeholders. We extracted the following information from included studies: country, methodological approach, and use of conceptual framework; local/hospital HTA approach and activities described; reported effects and impacts of local/hospital-based HTA; factors facilitating/hampering the use of hospital-based HTA recommendations; and perceptions of stakeholders concerning local/hospital HTA. Due to the great heterogeneity among studies, we conducted a narrative synthesis of their results. A total of 18 studies met the inclusion criteria. We reported the results according to the four approaches for performing HTA proposed by the Hospital Based HTA Interest Sub-Group: ambassador model, mini-HTA, internal committee, and HTA unit. Results showed that each of these approaches for performing HTA corresponds to specific needs and structures and has its strengths and limitations. Overall, studies showed positive impacts related to local/hospital-based HTA on hospital decisions and budgets, as well as positive perceptions from managers and clinicians. Local/hospital-based HTA could influence decision-making on several aspects. It is difficult to evaluate the real impacts of local HTA at the different levels of health care given the relatively small number of evaluations with quantitative data and the lack of clear comparators. Further research is necessary to explore the conditions under which local/hospital-based HTA results and recommendations can impact hospital policies, clinical decisions, and quality of care and optimize the use of scarce resources.

Effects and repercussions of local/hospital-based health technology assessment (HTA): a systematic review

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Health technology assessment (HTA) is increasingly performed at the local or hospital level where the costs, impacts, and benefits of health technologies can be directly assessed. Although local/hospital-based HTA has been implemented for more than two decades in some jurisdictions, little is known about its effects and impact on hospital budget, clinical practices, and patient outcomes. We conducted a mixed-methods systematic review that aimed to synthesize current evidence regarding the effects and impact of local/hospital-based HTA. Methods We identified articles through PubMed and Embase and by citation tracking of included studies. We selected qualitative, quantitative, or mixed-methods studies with empirical data about the effects or impact of local/hospital-based HTA on decision-making, budget, or perceptions of stakeholders. We extracted the following information from included studies: country, methodological approach, and use of conceptual framework; local/hospital HTA approach and activities described; reported effects and impacts of local/hospital-based HTA; factors facilitating/hampering the use of hospital-based HTA recommendations; and perceptions of stakeholders concerning local/hospital HTA. Due to the great heterogeneity among studies, we conducted a narrative synthesis of their results. Results A total of 18 studies met the inclusion criteria. We reported the results according to the four approaches for performing HTA proposed by the Hospital Based HTA Interest Sub-Group: ambassador model, mini-HTA, internal committee, and HTA unit. Results showed that each of these approaches for performing HTA corresponds to specific needs and structures and has its strengths and limitations. Overall, studies showed positive impacts related to local/hospital-based HTA on hospital decisions and budgets, as well as positive perceptions from managers and clinicians. Conclusions Local/hospital-based HTA could influence decision-making on several aspects. It is difficult to evaluate the real impacts of local HTA at the different levels of health care given the relatively small number of evaluations with quantitative data and the lack of clear comparators. Further research is necessary to explore the conditions under which local/hospital-based HTA results and recommendations can impact hospital policies, clinical decisions, and quality of care and optimize the use of scarce resources. PMID:25352182

Advances in wind erosion modelling in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrelli, Pasquale; Lugato, Emanuele; Alewell, Christine; Montanarella, Luca; Panagos, Panos

2017-04-01

Soil erosion by wind is a serious environmental problem often resulting in severe forms of soil degradation. Wind erosion is also a phenomenon relevant for Europe, although this land degradation process has been overlooked until very recently. The state-of-the-art literature presents wind erosion as a process that locally affects the semi-arid areas of the Mediterranean region as well as the temperate climate areas of the northern European countries. Actual observations, field measurements and modelling assessments, however, are all extremely limited and highly unequally distributed across Europe. As a result, we currently lack comprehensive understanding about where and when wind erosion occurs in Europe, and the intensity of erosion that poses a threat to agricultural productivity. Today's challenge is to integrate the insights of local experiments and field-scale models into a new generation of large-scale wind erosion models. While naturally being less accurate than field-scale models, these large-scale modelling approaches still provide essential knowledge about where and when wind erosion occurs and can disclose the level of risk for agricultural productivity in specific areas. Here, we present a geographic information system (GIS) version of the RWEQ (named GIS-RWEQ) to quantitatively assess soil loss by wind over large study areas (Land Degradation & Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2588). The model designed to predict the daily soil loss potential at a ca. 1 km2 spatial resolution shows high consistency with local measurements reported in literature. The average soil loss predicted by GIS-RWEQ for the European arable land totals 62 million Mg yr-1, with an average area-specific soil loss of 0.53 Mg yr-1. The JRC model RUSLE2015, for the same area estimates 295 million Mg yr-1 of soil loss due to water erosion. Notably, soil loss by wind erosion in the European arable land could be as high as 20% of water erosion, even though the areas affected are mainly concentrated in hotspots.

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

PubMed Central

Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

2016-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID:27761304

Evaluation of CFD Turbulent Heating Prediction Techniques and Comparison With Hypersonic Experimental Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dilley, Arthur D.; McClinton, Charles R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Results from a study to assess the accuracy of turbulent heating and skin friction prediction techniques for hypersonic applications are presented. The study uses the original and a modified Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model with a space marching code. Grid converged turbulent predictions using the wall damping formulation (original model) and local damping formulation (modified model) are compared with experimental data for several flat plates. The wall damping and local damping results are similar for hot wall conditions, but differ significantly for cold walls, i.e., T(sub w) / T(sub t) < 0.3, with the wall damping heating and skin friction 10-30% above the local damping results. Furthermore, the local damping predictions have reasonable or good agreement with the experimental heating data for all cases. The impact of the two formulations on the van Driest damping function and the turbulent eddy viscosity distribution for a cold wall case indicate the importance of including temperature gradient effects. Grid requirements for accurate turbulent heating predictions are also studied. These results indicate that a cell Reynolds number of 1 is required for grid converged heating predictions, but coarser grids with a y(sup +) less than 2 are adequate for design of hypersonic vehicles. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that the local damping formulation be used with the Baldwin-Lomax and Cebeci-Smith turbulence models in design and analysis of Hyper-X and future hypersonic vehicles.

A sequence-dependent rigid-base model of DNA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, O.; Petkevičiutė, D.; Maddocks, J. H.

2013-02-01

A novel hierarchy of coarse-grain, sequence-dependent, rigid-base models of B-form DNA in solution is introduced. The hierarchy depends on both the assumed range of energetic couplings, and the extent of sequence dependence of the model parameters. A significant feature of the models is that they exhibit the phenomenon of frustration: each base cannot simultaneously minimize the energy of all of its interactions. As a consequence, an arbitrary DNA oligomer has an intrinsic or pre-existing stress, with the level of this frustration dependent on the particular sequence of the oligomer. Attention is focussed on the particular model in the hierarchy that has nearest-neighbor interactions and dimer sequence dependence of the model parameters. For a Gaussian version of this model, a complete coarse-grain parameter set is estimated. The parameterized model allows, for an oligomer of arbitrary length and sequence, a simple and explicit construction of an approximation to the configuration-space equilibrium probability density function for the oligomer in solution. The training set leading to the coarse-grain parameter set is itself extracted from a recent and extensive database of a large number of independent, atomic-resolution molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of short DNA oligomers immersed in explicit solvent. The Kullback-Leibler divergence between probability density functions is used to make several quantitative assessments of our nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model, which is compared against others in the hierarchy to assess various assumptions pertaining both to the locality of the energetic couplings and to the level of sequence dependence of its parameters. It is also compared directly against all-atom MD simulation to assess its predictive capabilities. The results show that the nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model can successfully resolve sequence effects both within and between oligomers. For example, due to the presence of frustration, the model can successfully predict the nonlocal changes in the minimum energy configuration of an oligomer that are consequent upon a local change of sequence at the level of a single point mutation.

A sequence-dependent rigid-base model of DNA.

PubMed

Gonzalez, O; Petkevičiūtė, D; Maddocks, J H

2013-02-07

A novel hierarchy of coarse-grain, sequence-dependent, rigid-base models of B-form DNA in solution is introduced. The hierarchy depends on both the assumed range of energetic couplings, and the extent of sequence dependence of the model parameters. A significant feature of the models is that they exhibit the phenomenon of frustration: each base cannot simultaneously minimize the energy of all of its interactions. As a consequence, an arbitrary DNA oligomer has an intrinsic or pre-existing stress, with the level of this frustration dependent on the particular sequence of the oligomer. Attention is focussed on the particular model in the hierarchy that has nearest-neighbor interactions and dimer sequence dependence of the model parameters. For a Gaussian version of this model, a complete coarse-grain parameter set is estimated. The parameterized model allows, for an oligomer of arbitrary length and sequence, a simple and explicit construction of an approximation to the configuration-space equilibrium probability density function for the oligomer in solution. The training set leading to the coarse-grain parameter set is itself extracted from a recent and extensive database of a large number of independent, atomic-resolution molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of short DNA oligomers immersed in explicit solvent. The Kullback-Leibler divergence between probability density functions is used to make several quantitative assessments of our nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model, which is compared against others in the hierarchy to assess various assumptions pertaining both to the locality of the energetic couplings and to the level of sequence dependence of its parameters. It is also compared directly against all-atom MD simulation to assess its predictive capabilities. The results show that the nearest-neighbor, dimer-dependent model can successfully resolve sequence effects both within and between oligomers. For example, due to the presence of frustration, the model can successfully predict the nonlocal changes in the minimum energy configuration of an oligomer that are consequent upon a local change of sequence at the level of a single point mutation.

Neuroprotective assessment of prolonged local hypothermia post contusive spinal cord injury in rodent model.

PubMed

Teh, Daniel Boon Loong; Chua, Soo Min; Prasad, Ankshita; Kakkos, Ioannis; Jiang, Wenxuan; Yue, Mu; Liu, Xiaogang; All, Angelo Homayoun

2018-03-01

Although general hypothermia is recognized as a clinically applicable neuroprotective intervention, acute moderate local hypothermia post contusive spinal cord injury (SCI) is being considered a more effective approach. Previously, we have investigated the feasibility and safety of inducing prolonged local hypothermia in the central nervous system of a rodent model. Here, we aimed to verify the efficacy and neuroprotective effects of 5 and 8 hours of local moderate hypothermia (30±0.5°C) induced 2 hours after moderate thoracic contusive SCI in rats. Rats were induced with moderate SCI (12.5 mm) at its T8 section. Local hypothermia (30±0.5°C) was induced 2 hours after injury induction with an M-shaped copper tube with flow of cold water (12°C), from the T6 to the T10 region. Experiment groups were divided into 5-hour and 8-hour hypothermia treatment groups, respectively, whereas the normothermia control group underwent no hypothermia treatment. The neuroprotective effects were assessed through objective weekly somatosensory evoked potential (SSEP) and motor behavior (basso, beattie and bresnahan Basso, Beattie and Bresnahan (BBB) scoring) monitoring. Histology on spinal cord was performed until at the end of day 56. All authors declared no conflict of interest. This work was supported by the Singapore Institute for Neurotechnology Seed Fund (R-175-000-121-733), National University of Singapore, Ministry of Education, Tier 1 (R-172-000-414-112.). Our results show significant SSEP amplitudes recovery in local hypothermia groups starting from day 14 post-injury onward for the 8-hour treatment group, which persisted up to days 28 and 42, whereas the 5-hour group showed significant improvement only at day 42. The functional improvement plateaued after day 42 as compared with control group of SCI with normothermia. This was supported by both 5-hour and 8-hour improvement in locomotion as measured by BBB scores. Local hypothermia also observed insignificant changes in its SSEP latency, as compared with the control. In addition, 5- and 8-hour hypothermia rats' spinal cord showed higher percentage of parenchyma preservation. Early local moderate hypothermia can be induced for extended periods of time post SCI in the rodent model. Such intervention improves functional electrophysiological outcome and motor behavior recovery for a long time, lasting until 8 weeks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Air Quality Modeling Needs for Exposure Assessment form the Source-To-Outcome Perspective

EPA Science Inventory

Humans are exposed continuously to mixtures of air pollutants. The compositions of these mixtures vary with time and location and their components originate from many types of sources, both local and distant, including industrial facilities, vehicles, consumer products, and more....

Race, Power, and Language Criticism: The Case of Hawai'i

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marlow, Mikaela Loyola

2009-01-01

Ethnolinguistic vitality, communication accommodation, and markedness model frameworks guided research assessing language ideologies, practices, and criticism among multi-ethnic Locals in the Hawaiian Islands. Results from Study 1 indicated that respondents draw from widespread ideologies that influence them to employ Standard English in…

Modeling the Soil Water and Energy Balance of a Mixed Grass Rangeland and Evaluating a Soil Water Based Drought Index in Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engda, T. A.; Kelleners, T. J.; Paige, G. B.

2013-12-01

Soil water content plays an important role in the complex interaction between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. Automated soil water content sensing is increasingly being used to assess agricultural drought conditions. A one-dimensional vertical model that calculates incoming solar radiation, canopy energy balance, surface energy balance, snow pack dynamics, soil water flow, snow-soil heat exchange is applied to calculate water flow and heat transport in a Rangeland soil located near Lingel, Wyoming. The model is calibrated and validated using three years of measured soil water content data. Long-term average soil water content dynamics are calculated using a 30 year historical data record. The difference between long-term average soil water content and observed soil water content is compared with plant biomass to evaluate the usefulness of soil water content as a drought indicator. Strong correlation between soil moisture surplus/deficit and plant biomass may prove our hypothesis that soil water content is a good indicator of drought conditions. Soil moisture based drought index is calculated using modeled and measured soil water data input and is compared with measured plant biomass data. A drought index that captures local drought conditions proves the importance of a soil water monitoring network for Wyoming Rangelands to fill the gap between large scale drought indices, which are not detailed enough to assess conditions at local level, and local drought conditions. Results from a combined soil moisture monitoring and computer modeling, and soil water based drought index soil are presented to quantify vertical soil water flow, heat transport, historical soil water variations and drought conditions in the study area.

Reduced-Reference Quality Assessment Based on the Entropy of DWT Coefficients of Locally Weighted Gradient Magnitudes.

PubMed

Golestaneh, S Alireza; Karam, Lina

2016-08-24

Perceptual image quality assessment (IQA) attempts to use computational models to estimate the image quality in accordance with subjective evaluations. Reduced-reference (RR) image quality assessment (IQA) methods make use of partial information or features extracted from the reference image for estimating the quality of distorted images. Finding a balance between the number of RR features and accuracy of the estimated image quality is essential and important in IQA. In this paper we propose a training-free low-cost RRIQA method that requires a very small number of RR features (6 RR features). The proposed RRIQA algorithm is based on the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) of locally weighted gradient magnitudes.We apply human visual system's contrast sensitivity and neighborhood gradient information to weight the gradient magnitudes in a locally adaptive manner. The RR features are computed by measuring the entropy of each DWT subband, for each scale, and pooling the subband entropies along all orientations, resulting in L RR features (one average entropy per scale) for an L-level DWT. Extensive experiments performed on seven large-scale benchmark databases demonstrate that the proposed RRIQA method delivers highly competitive performance as compared to the state-of-the-art RRIQA models as well as full reference ones for both natural and texture images. The MATLAB source code of REDLOG and the evaluation results are publicly available online at https://http://lab.engineering.asu.edu/ivulab/software/redlog/.

Comparison of Congruence Judgment and Auditory Localization Tasks for Assessing the Spatial Limits of Visual Capture

PubMed Central

Bosen, Adam K.; Fleming, Justin T.; Brown, Sarah E.; Allen, Paul D.; O'Neill, William E.; Paige, Gary D.

2016-01-01

Vision typically has better spatial accuracy and precision than audition, and as a result often captures auditory spatial perception when visual and auditory cues are presented together. One determinant of visual capture is the amount of spatial disparity between auditory and visual cues: when disparity is small visual capture is likely to occur, and when disparity is large visual capture is unlikely. Previous experiments have used two methods to probe how visual capture varies with spatial disparity. First, congruence judgment assesses perceived unity between cues by having subjects report whether or not auditory and visual targets came from the same location. Second, auditory localization assesses the graded influence of vision on auditory spatial perception by having subjects point to the remembered location of an auditory target presented with a visual target. Previous research has shown that when both tasks are performed concurrently they produce similar measures of visual capture, but this may not hold when tasks are performed independently. Here, subjects alternated between tasks independently across three sessions. A Bayesian inference model of visual capture was used to estimate perceptual parameters for each session, which were compared across tasks. Results demonstrated that the range of audio-visual disparities over which visual capture was likely to occur were narrower in auditory localization than in congruence judgment, which the model indicates was caused by subjects adjusting their prior expectation that targets originated from the same location in a task-dependent manner. PMID:27815630

Groundwater source contamination mechanisms: Physicochemical profile clustering, risk factor analysis and multivariate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hynds, Paul; Misstear, Bruce D.; Gill, Laurence W.; Murphy, Heather M.

2014-04-01

An integrated domestic well sampling and "susceptibility assessment" programme was undertaken in the Republic of Ireland from April 2008 to November 2010. Overall, 211 domestic wells were sampled, assessed and collated with local climate data. Based upon groundwater physicochemical profile, three clusters have been identified and characterised by source type (borehole or hand-dug well) and local geological setting. Statistical analysis indicates that cluster membership is significantly associated with the prevalence of bacteria (p = 0.001), with mean Escherichia coli presence within clusters ranging from 15.4% (Cluster-1) to 47.6% (Cluster-3). Bivariate risk factor analysis shows that on-site septic tank presence was the only risk factor significantly associated (p < 0.05) with bacterial presence within all clusters. Point agriculture adjacency was significantly associated with both borehole-related clusters. Well design criteria were associated with hand-dug wells and boreholes in areas characterised by high permeability subsoils, while local geological setting was significant for hand-dug wells and boreholes in areas dominated by low/moderate permeability subsoils. Multivariate susceptibility models were developed for all clusters, with predictive accuracies of 84% (Cluster-1) to 91% (Cluster-2) achieved. Septic tank setback was a common variable within all multivariate models, while agricultural sources were also significant, albeit to a lesser degree. Furthermore, well liner clearance was a significant factor in all models, indicating that direct surface ingress is a significant well contamination mechanism. Identification and elucidation of cluster-specific contamination mechanisms may be used to develop improved overall risk management and wellhead protection strategies, while also informing future remediation and maintenance efforts.

Wind energy on the horizon in British Columbia. A review and evaluation of the British Columbia wind energy planning framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Jason

This study examines the wind energy planning frameworks from ten North American jurisdictions, drawing important lessons that British Columbia could use to build on its current model which has been criticized for its limited scope and restriction of local government powers. This study contributes to similar studies conducted by Kimrey (2006), Longston (2006), and Eriksen (2009). This study concludes that inclusion of wind resource zones delineated through strategic environmental assessment, programme assessment, and conducting research-oriented studies could improve the current British Columbia planning framework. The framework should also strengthen its bat impact assessment practices and incorporate habitat compensation. This research also builds upon Rosenberg's (2008) wind energy planning framework typologies. I conclude that the typology utilized in Texas should be employed in British Columbia in order to facilitate utilizing wind power. The only adaptation needed is the establishment of a cross-jurisdictional review committee for project assessment to address concerns about local involvement and site-specific environmental and social concerns.

Financing Solar PV at Government Sites with PPAs and Public Debt (Brochure)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2011-11-01

Historically, state and local governmental agencies have employed one of two models to deploy solar photovoltaic (PV) projects: (1) self-ownership (financed through a variety of means) or (2) third-party ownership through a power purchase agreement (PPA). Morris County, New Jersey, administrators recently pioneered a way to combine many of the benefits of self-ownership and third-party PPAs through a bond-PPA hybrid, frequently referred to as the Morris Model. At the request of the Department of Energy's Solar Market Transformation group, NREL examined the hybrid model. This fact sheet describes how the hybrid model works, assesses the model's relative advantages and challengesmore » as compared to self-ownership and the third-party PPA model, provides a quick guide to project implementation, and assesses the replicability of the model in other jurisdictions across the United States.« less

A Local-Realistic Model of Quantum Mechanics Based on a Discrete Spacetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sciarretta, Antonio

2018-01-01

This paper presents a realistic, stochastic, and local model that reproduces nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) results without using its mathematical formulation. The proposed model only uses integer-valued quantities and operations on probabilities, in particular assuming a discrete spacetime under the form of a Euclidean lattice. Individual (spinless) particle trajectories are described as random walks. Transition probabilities are simple functions of a few quantities that are either randomly associated to the particles during their preparation, or stored in the lattice nodes they visit during the walk. QM predictions are retrieved as probability distributions of similarly-prepared ensembles of particles. The scenarios considered to assess the model comprise of free particle, constant external force, harmonic oscillator, particle in a box, the Delta potential, particle on a ring, particle on a sphere and include quantization of energy levels and angular momentum, as well as momentum entanglement.

A model for assessing the risk of human trafficking on a local level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colegrove, Amanda

Human trafficking is a human rights violation that is difficult to quantify. Models for estimating the number of victims of trafficking presented by previous researchers depend on inconsistent, poor quality data. As an intermediate step to help current efforts by nonprofits to combat human trafficking, this project presents a model that is not dependent on quantitative data specific to human trafficking, but rather profiles the risk of human trafficking at the local level through causative factors. Businesses, indicated by the literature, were weighted based on the presence of characteristics that increase the likelihood of trafficking in persons. The mean risk was calculated by census tract to reveal the multiplicity of risk levels in both rural and urban settings. Results indicate that labor trafficking may be a more diffuse problem in Missouri than sex trafficking. Additionally, spatial patterns of risk remained largely the same regardless of adjustments made to the model.

Cognitive Abilities Explain Wording Effects in the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale.

PubMed

Gnambs, Timo; Schroeders, Ulrich

2017-12-01

There is consensus that the 10 items of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) reflect wording effects resulting from positively and negatively keyed items. The present study examined the effects of cognitive abilities on the factor structure of the RSES with a novel, nonparametric latent variable technique called local structural equation models. In a nationally representative German large-scale assessment including 12,437 students competing measurement models for the RSES were compared: a bifactor model with a common factor and a specific factor for all negatively worded items had an optimal fit. Local structural equation models showed that the unidimensionality of the scale increased with higher levels of reading competence and reasoning, while the proportion of variance attributed to the negatively keyed items declined. Wording effects on the factor structure of the RSES seem to represent a response style artifact associated with cognitive abilities.

Modelling of physical influences in sea level records for vertical crustal movement detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, E. G.

1978-01-01

Attempts to specify and evaluate such physical influences are reviewed with the intention of identifying problem areas and promising approaches. An example of linear modelling based on air/water temperatures, atmospheric pressure, river discharges, geostrophic and/or local wind velocities, and including forced period terms to allow for the long period tides and Chandlerian polar motion is evaluated and applied to monthly mean sea levels recorded in Atlantic Canada. Refinement of the model to admit phase lag in the response to some of the driving phenomena is demonstrated. Spectral analysis of the residuals is employed to assess the model performance. The results and associated statistical parameters are discussed with emphasis on elucidating the sensitivity of the technique for detection of local episodic and secular vertical crustal movements, the problem areas most critical to the type of approach, and possible further developments.

Evaluation of Internal Construct Validity and Unidimensionality of the Brachial Assessment Tool, A Patient-Reported Outcome Measure for Brachial Plexus Injury.

PubMed

Hill, Bridget; Pallant, Julie; Williams, Gavin; Olver, John; Ferris, Scott; Bialocerkowski, Andrea

2016-12-01

To evaluate the internal construct validity and dimensionality of a new patient-reported outcome measure for people with traumatic brachial plexus injury (BPI) based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health definition of activity. Cross-sectional study. Outpatient clinics. Adults (age range, 18-82y) with a traumatic BPI (N=106). There were 106 people with BPI who completed a 51-item 5-response questionnaire. Responses were analyzed in 4 phases (missing responses, item correlations, exploratory factor analysis, and Rasch analysis) to evaluate the properties of fit to the Rasch model, threshold response, local dependency, dimensionality, differential item functioning, and targeting. Not applicable, as this study addresses the development of an outcome measure. Six items were deleted for missing responses, and 10 were deleted for high interitem correlations >.81. The remaining 35 items, while demonstrating fit to the Rasch model, showed evidence of local dependency and multidimensionality. Items were divided into 3 subscales: dressing and grooming (8 items), arm and hand (17 items), and no hand (6 items). All 3 subscales demonstrated fit to the model with no local dependency, minimal disordered thresholds, no unidimensionality or differential item functioning for age, time postinjury, or self-selected dominance. Subscales were combined into 3 subtests and demonstrated fit to the model, no misfit, and unidimensionality, allowing calculation of a summary score. This preliminary analysis supports the internal construct validity of the Brachial Assessment Tool, a unidimensional targeted 4-response patient-reported outcome measure designed to solely assess activity after traumatic BPI regardless of level of injury, age at recruitment, premorbid limb dominance, and time postinjury. Further examination is required to determine test-retest reliability and responsiveness. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

PubMed

Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank

2018-03-01

The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used to develop improved regional impact assessments for situations where multi-crop rotations better represent predominant agricultural systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological risk assessment in legislation on contaminated soil in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Boekhold, Alexandra E

2008-12-01

Recently the Dutch soil policy was revised including new rules for the relocation of contaminated soil and dredged soil material. With these rules, new methods for ecotoxicological risk assessment were implemented. One of the new methods is the assessment of the local toxic pressure of mixtures, also known as the ms-PAF- method, based on the Species Sensitivity Distribution concept. The ms-PAF method is applied for risk assessment of spreading of dredged soil material on adjacent land. Its application will possibly be extended to the derivation of local soil quality standards relevant in the context of soil relocation. The application of the local toxic pressure will probably increase the reuse of contaminated soil and dredged soil material and hence will reduce the amounts considered to be unfit for use. With this method, local ecological risk limits are derived using pore water concentrations and effects on water organisms. Pore water concentrations are subsequently transferred to total soil concentrations using empirical relationships. The methodology does not impose upper limits for total soil concentrations. In soils with a high sorption capacity, total soil concentrations that are considered to be acceptable may be several times higher than the current Dutch intervention values. The possible introduction of the ms-PAF method will open the door to local soil relocation with soils containing large amounts of (semi-permanently soil bound) contaminants. Since the ms-PAF method is not yet properly validated, the lack of evidence of ecological effects using models like the ms-PAF method cannot be regarded as an indication for the absence of effects in reality. The Dutch soil quality decree would gain environmental ambition when the ms-PAF method was combined with a realistic upper limit on total soil concentrations. This would prevent contamination of land by means of soil relocation.

Regional and local species richness in an insular environment: Serpentine plants in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, S.; Safford, H.D.; Grace, J.B.; Viers, J.H.; Davies, K.F.

2006-01-01

We asked how the richness of the specialized (endemic) flora of serpentine rock outcrops in California varies at both the regional and local scales. Our study had two goals: first, to test whether endemic richness is affected by spatial habitat structure (e.g., regional serpentine area, local serpentine outcrop area, regional and local measures of outcrop isolation), and second, to conduct this test in the context of a broader assessment of environmental influences (e.g., climate, soils, vegetation, disturbance) and historical influences (e.g., geologic age, geographic province) on local and regional species richness. We measured endemic and total richness and environmental variables in 109 serpentine sites (1000-m2 paired plots) in 78 serpentine-containing regions of the state. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to simultaneously relate regional richness to regionalscale predictors, and local richness to both local-scale and regional-scale predictors. Our model for serpentine endemics explained 66% of the variation in local endemic richness based on local environment (vegetation, soils, rock cover) and on regional endemic richness. It explained 73% of the variation in regional endemic richness based on regional environment (climate and productivity), historical factors (geologic age and geographic province), and spatial structure (regional total area of serpentine, the only significant spatial variable in our analysis). We did not find a strong influence of spatial structure on species richness. However, we were able to distinguish local vs. regional influences on species richness to a novel extent, despite the existence of correlations between local and regional conditions. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Assessment of Alternative Conceptual Models Using Reactive Transport Modeling with Monitoring Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Z.; Price, V.; Heffner, D.; Hodges, R.; Temples, T.; Nicholson, T.

2005-12-01

Monitoring data proved very useful in evaluating alternative conceptual models, simulating contaminant transport behavior, and reducing uncertainty. A graded approach using three alternative conceptual site models was formulated to simulate a field case of tetrachloroethene (PCE) transport and biodegradation. These models ranged from simple to complex in their representation of subsurface heterogeneities. The simplest model was a single-layer homogeneous aquifer that employed an analytical reactive transport code, BIOCHLOR (Aziz et al., 1999). Due to over-simplification of the aquifer structure, this simulation could not reproduce the monitoring data. The second model consisted of a multi-layer conceptual model, in combination with numerical modules, MODFLOW and RT3D within GMS, to simulate flow and reactive transport. Although the simulation results from the second model were comparatively better than those from the simple model, they still did not adequately reproduce the monitoring well concentrations because the geological structures were still inadequately defined. Finally, a more realistic conceptual model was formulated that incorporated heterogeneities and geologic structures identified from well logs and seismic survey data using the Petra and PetraSeis software. This conceptual model included both a major channel and a younger channel that were detected in the PCE source area. In this model, these channels control the local ground-water flow direction and provide a preferential chemical transport pathway. Simulation results using this conceptual site model proved compatible with the monitoring concentration data. This study demonstrates that the bias and uncertainty from inadequate conceptual models are much larger than those introduced from an inadequate choice of model parameter values (Neuman and Wierenga, 2003; Meyer et al., 2004; Ye et al., 2004). This case study integrated conceptual and numerical models, based on interpreted local hydrogeologic and geochemical data, with detailed monitoring plume data. It provided key insights for confirming alternative conceptual site models and assessing the performance of monitoring networks. A monitoring strategy based on this graded approach for assessing alternative conceptual models can provide the technical bases for identifying critical monitoring locations, adequate monitoring frequency, and performance indicator parameters for performance monitoring involving ground-water levels and PCE concentrations.

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi, Stefano; Villa, Ferdinando; Mojtahed, Vahid; Hegetschweiler, Karin Tessa; Giupponi, Carlo

2016-06-01

This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event.

Harmful algal bloom characterization at ultra-high spatial and temporal resolution using small unmanned aircraft systems.

PubMed

Van der Merwe, Deon; Price, Kevin P

2015-03-27

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) degrade water quality and produce toxins. The spatial distribution of HAbs may change rapidly due to variations wind, water currents, and population dynamics. Risk assessments, based on traditional sampling methods, are hampered by the sparseness of water sample data points, and delays between sampling and the availability of results. There is a need for local risk assessment and risk management at the spatial and temporal resolution relevant to local human and animal interactions at specific sites and times. Small, unmanned aircraft systems can gather color-infrared reflectance data at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions, with full control over data collection timing, and short intervals between data gathering and result availability. Data can be interpreted qualitatively, or by generating a blue normalized difference vegetation index (BNDVI) that is correlated with cyanobacterial biomass densities at the water surface, as estimated using a buoyant packed cell volume (BPCV). Correlations between BNDVI and BPCV follow a logarithmic model, with r(2)-values under field conditions from 0.77 to 0.87. These methods provide valuable information that is complimentary to risk assessment data derived from traditional risk assessment methods, and could help to improve risk management at the local level.

Harmful Algal Bloom Characterization at Ultra-High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Using Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems

PubMed Central

Van der Merwe, Deon; Price, Kevin P.

2015-01-01

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) degrade water quality and produce toxins. The spatial distribution of HAbs may change rapidly due to variations wind, water currents, and population dynamics. Risk assessments, based on traditional sampling methods, are hampered by the sparseness of water sample data points, and delays between sampling and the availability of results. There is a need for local risk assessment and risk management at the spatial and temporal resolution relevant to local human and animal interactions at specific sites and times. Small, unmanned aircraft systems can gather color-infrared reflectance data at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions, with full control over data collection timing, and short intervals between data gathering and result availability. Data can be interpreted qualitatively, or by generating a blue normalized difference vegetation index (BNDVI) that is correlated with cyanobacterial biomass densities at the water surface, as estimated using a buoyant packed cell volume (BPCV). Correlations between BNDVI and BPCV follow a logarithmic model, with r2-values under field conditions from 0.77 to 0.87. These methods provide valuable information that is complimentary to risk assessment data derived from traditional risk assessment methods, and could help to improve risk management at the local level. PMID:25826055

Site-specific to local-scale shallow landslides triggering zones assessment using TRIGRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoni, M.; Meisina, C.; Valentino, R.; Bittelli, M.; Chersich, S.

2015-05-01

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are common phenomena in many parts of the world, affecting cultivation and infrastructure and sometimes causing human losses. Assessing the triggering zones of shallow landslides is fundamental for land planning at different scales. This work defines a reliable methodology to extend a slope stability analysis from the site-specific to local scale by using a well-established physically based model (TRIGRS-unsaturated). The model is initially applied to a sample slope and then to the surrounding 13.4 km2 area in Oltrepo Pavese (northern Italy). To obtain more reliable input data for the model, long-term hydro-meteorological monitoring has been carried out at the sample slope, which has been assumed to be representative of the study area. Field measurements identified the triggering mechanism of shallow failures and were used to verify the reliability of the model to obtain pore water pressure trends consistent with those measured during the monitoring activity. In this way, more reliable trends have been modelled for past landslide events, such as the April 2009 event that was assumed as a benchmark. The assessment of shallow landslide triggering zones obtained using TRIGRS-unsaturated for the benchmark event appears good for both the monitored slope and the whole study area, with better results when a pedological instead of geological zoning is considered at the regional scale. The sensitivity analyses of the influence of the soil input data show that the mean values of the soil properties give the best results in terms of the ratio between the true positive and false positive rates. The scheme followed in this work allows us to obtain better results in the assessment of shallow landslide triggering areas in terms of the reduction in the overestimation of unstable zones with respect to other distributed models applied in the past.

Parameterization of wind turbine impacts on hydrodynamics and sediment transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivier, Aurélie; Bennis, Anne-Claire; Pinon, Grégory; Magar, Vanesa; Gross, Markus

2016-10-01

Monopile foundations of offshore wind turbines modify the hydrodynamics and sediment transport at local and regional scales. The aim of this work is to assess these modifications and to parameterize them in a regional model. In the present study, this is achieved through a regional circulation model, coupled with a sediment transport module, using two approaches. One approach is to explicitly model the monopiles in the mesh as dry cells, and the other is to parameterize them by adding a drag force term to the momentum and turbulence equations. Idealised cases are run using hydrodynamical conditions and sediment grain sizes typical from the area located off Courseulles-sur-Mer (Normandy, France), where an offshore windfarm is under planning, to assess the capacity of the model to reproduce the effect of the monopile on the environment. Then, the model is applied to a real configuration on an area including the future offshore windfarm of Courseulles-sur-Mer. Four monopiles are represented in the model using both approaches, and modifications of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport are assessed over a tidal cycle. In relation to local hydrodynamic effects, it is observed that currents increase at the side of the monopile and decrease in front of and downstream of the monopile. In relation to sediment transport effect, the results show that resuspension and erosion occur around the monopile in locations where the current speed increases due to the monopile presence, and sediments deposit downstream where the bed shear stress is lower. During the tidal cycle, wakes downstream of the monopile reach the following monopile and modify the velocity magnitude and suspended sediment concentration patterns around the second monopile.

A novel no-reference objective stereoscopic video quality assessment method based on visual saliency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xinyan; Zhao, Wei; Ye, Long; Zhang, Qin

2017-07-01

This paper proposes a no-reference objective stereoscopic video quality assessment method with the motivation that making the effect of objective experiments close to that of subjective way. We believe that the image regions with different visual salient degree should not have the same weights when designing an assessment metric. Therefore, we firstly use GBVS algorithm to each frame pairs and separate both the left and right viewing images into the regions with strong, general and week saliency. Besides, local feature information like blockiness, zero-crossing and depth are extracted and combined with a mathematical model to calculate a quality assessment score. Regions with different salient degree are assigned with different weights in the mathematical model. Experiment results demonstrate the superiority of our method compared with the existed state-of-the-art no-reference objective Stereoscopic video quality assessment methods.

Does living near a Superfund site contribute to higher polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure?

PubMed

Choi, Anna L; Levy, Jonathan I; Dockery, Douglas W; Ryan, Louise M; Tolbert, Paige E; Altshul, Larisa M; Korrick, Susan A

2006-07-01

We assessed determinants of cord serum polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) levels among 720 infants born between 1993 and 1998 to mothers living near a PCB-contaminated Superfund site in Massachusetts, measuring the sum of 51 PCB congeners (capital sigmaPCB) and ascertaining maternal address, diet, sociodemographics, and exposure risk factors. Addresses were geocoded to obtain distance to the Superfund site and neighborhood characteristics. We modeled log10(capital sigmaPCB) as a function of potential individual and neighborhood risk factors, mapping model residuals to assess spatial correlates of PCB exposure. Similar analyses were performed for light (mono-tetra) and heavy (penta-deca) PCBs to assess potential differences in exposure pathways as a function of relative volatility. PCB-118 (relatively prevalent in site sediments and cord serum) was assessed separately. The geometric mean of capital sigmaPCB levels was 0.40 (range, 0.068-18.14) ng/g serum. Maternal age and birthplace were the strongest predictors of capital sigmaPCB levels. Maternal consumption of organ meat and local dairy products was associated with higher and smoking and previous lactation with lower capital sigmaPCB levels. Infants born later in the study had lower capital sigmaPCB levels, likely due to temporal declines in exposure and site remediation in 1994-1995. No association was found between capital sigmaPCB levels and residential distance from the Superfund site. Similar results were found with light and heavy PCBs and PCB-118. Previously reported demographic (age) and other (lactation, smoking, diet) correlates of PCB exposure, as well as local factors (consumption of local dairy products and Superfund site dredging) but not residential proximity to the site, were important determinants of cord serum PCB levels in the study community.

An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

International and Local Student Satisfaction: Resources and Capabilities Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mavondo, Felix T.; Tsarenko, Yelena; Gabbott, Mark

2004-01-01

In this paper, we develop a conceptual model for assessing student satisfaction with universities and the likelihood of students recommending their institutions to other prospective students. Student satisfaction is conceptualised as a mediator between resources and capabilities and recommendation. The resources and capabilities that contribute to…

The economic and geographic impact of national forest land on counties in southern Illinois.

Treesearch

David Spencer; Ronald I. Beazley

1979-01-01

Analyzes the impact of the Shawnee National Forest on the socioeconomic structure of 11 counties in southern Illinois. Includes a factor analysis model as well as an assessment of tax losses to local government as a result of the National Forest.

Planning, Implementation, and Evaluation of AIDS Education Programs for Dentists.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerbert, Barbara; And Others

1991-01-01

An office-based continuing education program on acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) for dentists is described, including needs assessment, model development, local piloting, national implementation with 119 dentists, and evaluation phases. Program evaluation indicated an improvement in risk perception, knowledge, and practice resulted, but…

Community Near-Port Modeling System (C-PORT): Briefing for Environmental Defense Fund

EPA Science Inventory

What C-PORT is: Screening level tool for assessing port activities and exploring the range of potential impacts that changes to port operations might have on local air quality; Analysis of decision alternatives through mapping of the likely pattern of potential pollutant dispersi...

Conspecific and not performance-based attraction on immigrants drives colony growth in a waterbird.

PubMed

Tenan, Simone; Fasola, Mauro; Volponi, Stefano; Tavecchia, Giacomo

2017-09-01

Local recruitment and immigration play an important part in the dynamics and growth of animal populations. However, their estimation and incorporation into open population models is, in most cases, problematic. We studied factors affecting the growth of a recently established colony of Eurasian spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia) and assessed the contribution of local recruits, i.e. birds born in the colony, and immigrants, i.e. birds of unknown origin, to colony growth. We applied an integrated population model that accounts for uncertainty in breeding state assignment and merges population surveys, local fecundity and individual longitudinal data of breeding and non-breeding birds, to estimate demographic rates and the relative role of recruitment and immigration in driving the local dynamics. We also used this analytical framework to assess the degree of support for the 'performance-based' and 'conspecific attraction' hypotheses as possible mechanisms of colony growth. Among the demographic rates, only immigration was positively and significantly correlated with population growth rate. In addition, the number of immigrants settling in the colony was positively correlated with colony size in the previous and current year, but was not correlated with fecundity of the previous year. Our results suggest that the variation in immigration affected colony dynamics and that conspecific attraction likely triggered the relevant role of immigration in the growth of a recently formed waterbird colony, supporting the need of including immigration in population analysis. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Participatory Evaluation of Monitoring and Modeling of Sustainable Land Management Technologies in Areas Prone to Land Degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stringer, L. C.; Fleskens, L.; Reed, M. S.; de Vente, J.; Zengin, M.

2014-11-01

Examples of sustainable land management (SLM) exist throughout the world. In many cases, SLM has largely evolved through local traditional practices and incremental experimentation rather than being adopted on the basis of scientific evidence. This means that SLM technologies are often only adopted across small areas. The DESIRE (DESertIfication mitigation and REmediation of degraded land) project combined local traditional knowledge on SLM with empirical evaluation of SLM technologies. The purpose of this was to evaluate and select options for dissemination in 16 sites across 12 countries. It involved (i) an initial workshop to evaluate stakeholder priorities (reported elsewhere), (ii) field trials/empirical modeling, and then, (iii) further stakeholder evaluation workshops. This paper focuses on workshops in which stakeholders evaluated the performance of SLM technologies based on the scientific monitoring and modeling results from 15 study sites. It analyses workshop outcomes to evaluate how scientific results affected stakeholders' perceptions of local SLM technologies. It also assessed the potential of this participatory approach in facilitating wider acceptance and implementation of SLM. In several sites, stakeholder preferences for SLM technologies changed as a consequence of empirical measurements and modeling assessments of each technology. Two workshop examples are presented in depth to: (a) explore the scientific results that triggered stakeholders to change their views; and (b) discuss stakeholders' suggestions on how the adoption of SLM technologies could be up-scaled. The overall multi-stakeholder participatory approach taken is then evaluated. It is concluded that to facilitate broad-scale adoption of SLM technologies, de-contextualized, scientific generalisations must be given local context; scientific findings must be viewed alongside traditional beliefs and both scrutinized with equal rigor; and the knowledge of all kinds of experts must be recognised and considered in decision-making about SLM, whether it has been formally codified or not. The approach presented in this paper provided this opportunity and received positive feedback from stakeholders.

Geomorphic determinants of species composition of alpine tundra, Glacier National Park, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

George P. Malanson,; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Fagre, Daniel B.

2012-01-01

Because the distribution of alpine tundra is associated with spatially limited cold climates, global warming may threaten its local extent or existence. This notion has been challenged, however, based on observations of the diversity of alpine tundra in small areas primarily due to topographic variation. The importance of diversity in temperature or moisture conditions caused by topographic variation is an open question, and we extend this to geomorphology more generally. The extent to which geomorphic variation per se, based on relatively easily assessed indicators, can account for the variation in alpine tundra community composition is analyzed versus the inclusion of broad indicators of regional climate variation. Visual assessments of topography are quantified and reduced using principal components analysis (PCA). Observations of species cover are reduced using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA). A “best subsets” regression approach using the Akaike Information Criterion for selection of variables is compared to a simple stepwise regression with DCA scores as the dependent variable and scores on significant PCA axes plus more direct measures of topography as independent variables. Models with geographic coordinates (representing regional climate gradients) excluded explain almost as much variation in community composition as models with them included, although they are important contributors to the latter. The geomorphic variables in the model are those associated with local moisture differences such as snowbeds. The potential local variability of alpine tundra can be a buffer against climate change, but change in precipitation may be as important as change in temperature.

Optimization of return electrodes in neurostimulating arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, Thomas; Goetz, Georges; Lei, Xin; Palanker, Daniel

2016-06-01

Objective. High resolution visual prostheses require dense stimulating arrays with localized inputs of individual electrodes. We study the electric field produced by multielectrode arrays in electrolyte to determine an optimal configuration of return electrodes and activation sequence. Approach. To determine the boundary conditions for computation of the electric field in electrolyte, we assessed current dynamics using an equivalent circuit of a multielectrode array with interleaved return electrodes. The electric field modeled with two different boundary conditions derived from the equivalent circuit was then compared to measurements of electric potential in electrolyte. To assess the effect of return electrode configuration on retinal stimulation, we transformed the computed electric fields into retinal response using a model of neural network-mediated stimulation. Main results. Electric currents at the capacitive electrode-electrolyte interface redistribute over time, so that boundary conditions transition from equipotential surfaces at the beginning of the pulse to uniform current density in steady state. Experimental measurements confirmed that, in steady state, the boundary condition corresponds to a uniform current density on electrode surfaces. Arrays with local return electrodes exhibit improved field confinement and can elicit stronger network-mediated retinal response compared to those with a common remote return. Connecting local return electrodes enhances the field penetration depth and allows reducing the return electrode area. Sequential activation of the pixels in large monopolar arrays reduces electrical cross-talk and improves the contrast in pattern stimulation. Significance. Accurate modeling of multielectrode arrays helps optimize the electrode configuration to maximize the spatial resolution, contrast and dynamic range of retinal prostheses.

Regional Assessment of Storm-triggered Shall Landslide Risks using the SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D. B.; Fukuoka, H.

2011-12-01

The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. An early warning system applying such physical models has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island in Indonesia and Honduras. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping or hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e. Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically-based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium). The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a Factor of Safety (FS) that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. The system's prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory. In Java Island, Indonesia, evaluation of SLIDE modeling results by local news reports shows that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Further study of SLIDE is implemented in Honduras where Hurricane Mitch triggered widespread landslides in 1998. Results shows within the approximately 1,200 square kilometers study areas, the values of hit rates reached as high as 78% and 75%, while the error indices were 35% and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited in the early warning system by several assumptions including, using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this model will be discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales. In conclusion, integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets and physical models in this prototype system enable us to further develop a regional early warning tool in the future for forecasting storm-induced landslides.

Local Debonding and Fiber Breakage in Composite Materials Modeled Accurately

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2001-01-01

A prerequisite for full utilization of composite materials in aerospace components is accurate design and life prediction tools that enable the assessment of component performance and reliability. Such tools assist both structural analysts, who design and optimize structures composed of composite materials, and materials scientists who design and optimize the composite materials themselves. NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) software package (http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/LPB/mac) addresses this need for composite design and life prediction tools by providing a widely applicable and accurate approach to modeling composite materials. Furthermore, MAC/GMC serves as a platform for incorporating new local models and capabilities that are under development at NASA, thus enabling these new capabilities to progress rapidly to a stage in which they can be employed by the code's end users.

Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laurance, William F.

2004-01-01

This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

Using ventricular modeling to robustly probe significant deep gray matter pathologies: Application to cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Pagnozzi, Alex M; Shen, Kaikai; Doecke, James D; Boyd, Roslyn N; Bradley, Andrew P; Rose, Stephen; Dowson, Nicholas

2016-11-01

Understanding the relationships between the structure and function of the brain largely relies on the qualitative assessment of Magnetic Resonance Images (MRIs) by expert clinicians. Automated analysis systems can support these assessments by providing quantitative measures of brain injury. However, the assessment of deep gray matter structures, which are critical to motor and executive function, remains difficult as a result of large anatomical injuries commonly observed in children with Cerebral Palsy (CP). Hence, this article proposes a robust surrogate marker of the extent of deep gray matter injury based on impingement due to local ventricular enlargement on surrounding anatomy. Local enlargement was computed using a statistical shape model of the lateral ventricles constructed from 44 healthy subjects. Measures of injury on 95 age-matched CP patients were used to train a regression model to predict six clinical measures of function. The robustness of identifying ventricular enlargement was demonstrated by an area under the curve of 0.91 when tested against a dichotomised expert clinical assessment. The measures also showed strong and significant relationships for multiple clinical scores, including: motor function (r 2  = 0.62, P < 0.005), executive function (r 2  = 0.55, P < 0.005), and communication (r 2  = 0.50, P < 0.005), especially compared to using volumes obtained from standard anatomical segmentation approaches. The lack of reliance on accurate anatomical segmentations and its resulting robustness to large anatomical variations is a key feature of the proposed automated approach. This coupled with its strong correlation with clinically meaningful scores, signifies the potential utility to repeatedly assess MRIs for clinicians diagnosing children with CP. Hum Brain Mapp 37:3795-3809, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Antimicrobials usage assessments in commercial poultry and local birds in North-central Nigeria: Associated pathways and factors for resistance emergence and spread.

PubMed

Alhaji, N B; Haruna, A E; Muhammad, B; Lawan, M K; Isola, T O

2018-06-01

The World Health Organization's Global Action Plan on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) recommended monitoring of antimicrobial use (AMU) through surveillance and research to help mitigate AMR. This survey was aimed at assessing poultry owners' knowledge/awareness and practices regarding AMU, identified pathways for AMR emergence and spread in small-scale commercial poultry farms and free-range local bird flocks in North-central Nigeria. An interview questionnaire-based cross-sectional study was conducted on commercial poultry farmers and local bird flock keepers in 2017. Also, a Traffic Light system model was used assess risk status of AMU in farms and flocks. All the 384 recruited poultry farmers/keepers participated in the survey. Female respondents were the majority (67.2%). Low proportion of poultry farmers (46.4%, 89/192) and very low proportion of bird keepers (6.8%, 13/192) knew antimicrobials misuse to be when administered under dose. About 48% (93/192) of farmers and 93% (179/192) of keepers arbitrary determined antimicrobial dosage before administration. Respondents used antimicrobials for therapeutic, prophylactic, and growth promotion in birds. Also, participants significantly identified contaminated poultry products, infected poultry or contaminated formites, and discharged contaminated faeces into environment as pathways for transmission of antimicrobial resistant pathogens to humans. Traffic Light system model revealed 88.5% of small-scale commercial poultry farms to frequently used antimicrobials without veterinarians' consultations thereby attaining Class 1 (Red risk) status. The model showed that 92.1% of free-range local bird flocks rarely used antimicrobials thereby attaining Class 3 (Green risk) status. Improper antimicrobial dosage in poultry (OR: 7.23; 95% CI: 2.74, 19.21), non-enforcement of AMU regulating laws in poultry (OR: 4.12; 95% CI: 2.39, 7.10), weak financial status of poultry owners (OR: 3.00; 95% CI: 2.39, 7.10), and management system (OR: 8.94; 95% CI: 5.62, 14.24) were more likely to satisfactorily influenced antimicrobials misuse in poultry farms and local bird flocks. The survey revealed low knowledge level regarding AMU in the poultry. Antimicrobials were rarely used in local bird flocks, making them likely organic and safe from AMR. It is imperative to educate farmers on judicious AMU, enforce existing veterinary legislation on antimicrobials, establish antimicrobials surveillance system, and sensitize farmers on adequate biosecurity measures and routine vaccination of farms, so as to assure food safety, food security, and public health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO2 and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health

PubMed Central

Rao, Meenakshi; George, Linda A.; Shandas, Vivek; Rosenstiel, Todd N.

2017-01-01

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO2 is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO2 observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO2 with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO2 and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO2, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO2 associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4–12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and −1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health. PMID:28698523

Utility of a novel error-stepping method to improve gradient-based parameter identification by increasing the smoothness of the local objective surface: a case-study of pulmonary mechanics.

PubMed

Docherty, Paul D; Schranz, Christoph; Chase, J Geoffrey; Chiew, Yeong Shiong; Möller, Knut

2014-05-01

Accurate model parameter identification relies on accurate forward model simulations to guide convergence. However, some forward simulation methodologies lack the precision required to properly define the local objective surface and can cause failed parameter identification. The role of objective surface smoothness in identification of a pulmonary mechanics model was assessed using forward simulation from a novel error-stepping method and a proprietary Runge-Kutta method. The objective surfaces were compared via the identified parameter discrepancy generated in a Monte Carlo simulation and the local smoothness of the objective surfaces they generate. The error-stepping method generated significantly smoother error surfaces in each of the cases tested (p<0.0001) and more accurate model parameter estimates than the Runge-Kutta method in three of the four cases tested (p<0.0001) despite a 75% reduction in computational cost. Of note, parameter discrepancy in most cases was limited to a particular oblique plane, indicating a non-intuitive multi-parameter trade-off was occurring. The error-stepping method consistently improved or equalled the outcomes of the Runge-Kutta time-integration method for forward simulations of the pulmonary mechanics model. This study indicates that accurate parameter identification relies on accurate definition of the local objective function, and that parameter trade-off can occur on oblique planes resulting prematurely halted parameter convergence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community-wide validation of geospace model local K-index predictions to support model transition to operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glocer, A.; Rastätter, L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Singer, H. J.; Balch, C.; Weimer, D.; Welling, D.; Wiltberger, M.; Raeder, J.; Weigel, R. S.; McCollough, J.; Wing, S.

2016-07-01

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPC's effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glocer, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Singer, H. J.; Balch, C.; Weimer, D.; Welling, D.; Wiltberger, M.; Raeder, J.;

St George Acute Care Team: the local variant of crisis resolution model of care.

PubMed

Cupina, Denise D; Wand, Anne P F; Phelan, Emma; Atkin, Rona

2016-10-01

The objective of this study was to describe functioning and clinical activities of the St George Acute Care Team and how it compares to the typical crisis resolution model of care. Descriptive data including demographics, sources of referral, type of clinical intervention, length of stay, diagnoses and outcomes were collected from records of all patients who were discharged from the team during a 10 week period. There were 677 referrals. The team's functions consisted of post-discharge follow-up (31%), triage and intake (30%), case management support (23%) and acute community based assessment and treatment (16%). The average length of stay was 5 days. The majority of patients were diagnosed with a mood (23%) or a psychotic (25%) disorder. Points of contrast to other reported crisis resolution teams include shorter length of stay, relatively less focus on direct clinical assessment and more telephone follow-up and triage. St George Acute Care Team provides a variety of clinical activities. The focus has shifted away from the original model of crisis resolution care to meet local and governmental requirements. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2016.

A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buddemeier, R.W.; Jokiel, P.L.; Zimmerman, K.M.; Lane, D.R.; Carey, J.M.; Bohling, Geoffrey C.; Martinich, J.A.

2008-01-01

We developed a spreadsheet-based model for the use of managers, conservationists, and biologists for projecting the effects of climate change on coral reefs at local-to-regional scales. The COMBO (Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output) model calculates the impacts to coral reefs from changes in average SST and CO2 concentrations, and from high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. The model uses a probabilistic assessment of the frequency of high temperature events under a future climate to address scientific uncertainties about potential adverse effects. COMBO offers data libraries and default factors for three selected regions (Hawai'i, Great Barrier Reef, and Caribbean), but it is structured with user-selectable parameter values and data input options, making possible modifications to reflect local conditions or to incorporate local expertise. Preliminary results from sensitivity analyses and simulation examples for Hawai'i demonstrate the relative importance of high temperature events, increased average temperature, and increased CO2 concentration on the future status of coral reefs; Illustrate significant interactions among variables; and allow comparisons of past environmental history with future predictions. ?? 2008, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanugraphy, Inc.

A Three-Legged Stool or Race? Governance Models for NOAA RISAs, DOI CSCs, and USDA Climate Hubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. G.

2014-12-01

NOAAs Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Teams, DOIs Climate Science Centers (CSCs), and USDAs Regional Climate Hubs (RCHs) have common missions of integrating climate and related knowledge across scientific disciplines and regions to create "actionable" information that decision-makes can use to manage climate risks and impacts at state and local scales. However, the sponsoring agency programs, university investigators, and local federal officials govern each differently. The three models of program and center governance are 1) exclusively university (RISAs), 2) a hybrid of Federal government and (host) university (CSCs,), and 3) exclusively Federal (Hubs). Each model has it's advantages and disadvantages in terms of legal definition and authority, scientific mission requirements and strategies, flexibility and legitimacy to conduct research and to collaborate regionally with constituencies, leadership and governance approach and "friction points,", staff capacity and ability to engage stakeholders, necessity to deliver products and services, bureaucratic oversight, performance evaluation, and political support at Congressional, state, and local levels. Using available sources of information and data, this paper will compare and contrast the strengths and weakness of these three regional applied climate science center governance models.

A Three-Legged Stool or Race? Governance Models for NOAA RISAs, DOI CSCs, and USDA Climate Hub

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. G.

2014-12-01

NOAAs Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Teams, DOIs Climate Science Centers (CSCs), and USDAs Regional Climate Hubs (RCHs) have common missions of integrating climate and related knowledge across scientific disciplines and regions to create "actionable" information that decision-makes can use to manage climate risks and impacts at state and local scales. However, the sponsoring agency programs, university investigators, and local federal officials govern each differently. The three models of program and center governance are 1) exclusively university (RISAs), 2) a hybrid of Federal government and (host) university (CSCs,), and 3) exclusively Federal (Hubs). Each model has it's advantages and disadvantages in terms of legal definition and authority, scientific mission requirements and strategies, flexibility and legitimacy to conduct research and to collaborate regionally with constituencies, leadership and governance approach and "friction points,", staff capacity and ability to engage stakeholders, necessity to deliver products and services, bureaucratic oversight, performance evaluation, and political support at Congressional, state, and local levels. Using available sources of information and data, this paper will compare and contrast the strengths and weakness of these three regional applied climate science center governance models.

Spatial surplus production modeling of Atlantic tunas and billfish.

PubMed

Carruthers, Thomas R; McAllister, Murdoch K; Taylor, Nathan G

2011-10-01

We formulate and simulation-test a spatial surplus production model that provides a basis with which to undertake multispecies, multi-area, stock assessment. Movement between areas is parameterized using a simple gravity model that includes a "residency" parameter that determines the degree of stock mixing among areas. The model is deliberately simple in order to (1) accommodate nontarget species that typically have fewer available data and (2) minimize computational demand to enable simulation evaluation of spatial management strategies. Using this model, we demonstrate that careful consideration of spatial catch and effort data can provide the basis for simple yet reliable spatial stock assessments. If simple spatial dynamics can be assumed, tagging data are not required to reliably estimate spatial distribution and movement. When applied to eight stocks of Atlantic tuna and billfish, the model tracks regional catch data relatively well by approximating local depletions and exchange among high-abundance areas. We use these results to investigate and discuss the implications of using spatially aggregated stock assessment for fisheries in which the distribution of both the population and fishing vary over time.

Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

Downscaling of water withdrawals from regional/national to local scale is a fundamental step and also a common problem when integrating large scale economic and integrated assessment models with high-resolution detailed sectoral models. Tethys, an open-access software written in Python, is developed with statistical downscaling algorithms, to spatially and temporally downscale water withdrawal data to a finer scale. The spatial resolution will be downscaled from region/basin scale to grid (0.5 geographic degree) scale and the temporal resolution will be downscaled from year to month. Tethys is used to produce monthly global gridded water withdrawal products based on estimates from the Globalmore » Change Assessment Model (GCAM).« less

Energy Facility Siting by Means of Environmental Modelling with LANDSAT, Thematic Mapper and Geographic Information System (GIS) Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Currently based on ground and aerial surveys, the land cover data base of the Pennsylvania Power and Light Company is routinely used for modelling the effects of alternative generating plant and transmission line sites on the local and regional environment. The development of a satellite-based geographic information system would facilitate both the preparation of environmental impact statements by power companies and assessment of the data by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A cooperative project is planned to demonstrate the methodology for integrating satellite data into an existing geographic information system, d to further evaluate the ability of satellite data in modeling environmental conditions that would be applied in the preparation and assessment of environmental impact statements.

Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2018-02-09

Downscaling of water withdrawals from regional/national to local scale is a fundamental step and also a common problem when integrating large scale economic and integrated assessment models with high-resolution detailed sectoral models. Tethys, an open-access software written in Python, is developed with statistical downscaling algorithms, to spatially and temporally downscale water withdrawal data to a finer scale. The spatial resolution will be downscaled from region/basin scale to grid (0.5 geographic degree) scale and the temporal resolution will be downscaled from year to month. Tethys is used to produce monthly global gridded water withdrawal products based on estimates from the Globalmore » Change Assessment Model (GCAM).« less

Interference of Locally Forced Internal Waves in Non-Uniform Stratifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supekar, Rohit; Peacock, Thomas

2017-11-01

Several studies have investigated the effect of constructive or destructive interference on the transmission of internal waves propagating through non-uniform stratifications. Such studies have been performed for internal waves that are spatiotemporally harmonic. To understand the effect of localization, we perform a theoretical and experimental study of the transmission of two-dimensional internal waves that are generated by a spatiotemporally localized boundary forcing. This is done by considering an idealized problem and applying a weakly viscous semi-analytic linear model. Parametric studies using this model show that localization leads to the disappearance of transmission peaks and troughs that would otherwise be present for a harmonic forcing. Laboratory experiments that we perform provide a clear indication of this physical effect. Based on the group velocity and angle of propagation of the internal waves, a practical criteria that assesses when the transmission peaks or troughs are evident, is obtained. It is found that there is a significant difference in the predicted energy transfer due to a harmonic and non-harmonic forcing which has direct implications to various physical forcings such as a storm over the ocean.

Numerical implementation of non-local polycrystal plasticity using fast Fourier transforms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lebensohn, Ricardo A.; Needleman, Alan

Here, we present the numerical implementation of a non-local polycrystal plasticity theory using the FFT-based formulation of Suquet and co-workers. Gurtin (2002) non-local formulation, with geometry changes neglected, has been incorporated in the EVP-FFT algorithm of Lebensohn et al. (2012). Numerical procedures for the accurate estimation of higher order derivatives of micromechanical fields, required for feedback into single crystal constitutive relations, are identified and applied. A simple case of a periodic laminate made of two fcc crystals with different plastic properties is first used to assess the soundness and numerical stability of the proposed algorithm and to study the influencemore » of different model parameters on the predictions of the non-local model. Different behaviors at grain boundaries are explored, and the one consistent with the micro-clamped condition gives the most pronounced size effect. The formulation is applied next to 3-D fcc polycrystals, illustrating the possibilities offered by the proposed numerical scheme to analyze the mechanical response of polycrystalline aggregates in three dimensions accounting for size dependence arising from plastic strain gradients with reasonable computing times.« less

Numerical implementation of non-local polycrystal plasticity using fast Fourier transforms

DOE PAGES

Lebensohn, Ricardo A.; Needleman, Alan

2016-03-28

Here, we present the numerical implementation of a non-local polycrystal plasticity theory using the FFT-based formulation of Suquet and co-workers. Gurtin (2002) non-local formulation, with geometry changes neglected, has been incorporated in the EVP-FFT algorithm of Lebensohn et al. (2012). Numerical procedures for the accurate estimation of higher order derivatives of micromechanical fields, required for feedback into single crystal constitutive relations, are identified and applied. A simple case of a periodic laminate made of two fcc crystals with different plastic properties is first used to assess the soundness and numerical stability of the proposed algorithm and to study the influencemore » of different model parameters on the predictions of the non-local model. Different behaviors at grain boundaries are explored, and the one consistent with the micro-clamped condition gives the most pronounced size effect. The formulation is applied next to 3-D fcc polycrystals, illustrating the possibilities offered by the proposed numerical scheme to analyze the mechanical response of polycrystalline aggregates in three dimensions accounting for size dependence arising from plastic strain gradients with reasonable computing times.« less

The localization of focal heart activity via body surface potential measurements: tests in a heterogeneous torso phantom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterling, F.; Liehr, M.; Schimpf, P.; Liu, H.; Haueisen, J.

2009-09-01

The non-invasive localization of focal heart activity via body surface potential measurements (BSPM) could greatly benefit the understanding and treatment of arrhythmic heart diseases. However, the in vivo validation of source localization algorithms is rather difficult with currently available measurement techniques. In this study, we used a physical torso phantom composed of different conductive compartments and seven dipoles, which were placed in the anatomical position of the human heart in order to assess the performance of the Recursively Applied and Projected Multiple Signal Classification (RAP-MUSIC) algorithm. Electric potentials were measured on the torso surface for single dipoles with and without further uncorrelated or correlated dipole activity. The localization error averaged 11 ± 5 mm over 22 dipoles, which shows the ability of RAP-MUSIC to distinguish an uncorrelated dipole from surrounding sources activity. For the first time, real computational modelling errors could be included within the validation procedure due to the physically modelled heterogeneities. In conclusion, the introduced heterogeneous torso phantom can be used to validate state-of-the-art algorithms under nearly realistic measurement conditions.

Source parameters controlling the generation and propagation of potential local tsunamis along the cascadia margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.; Yoshioka, S.

1996-01-01

The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional (x-t) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional (x-y-t) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous 'tsunami earthquakes' that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude. ?? 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

A "mental models" approach to the communication of subsurface hydrology and hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Hazel; Stewart, Iain S.; Pahl, Sabine; Stokes, Alison

2016-05-01

Communicating information about geological and hydrological hazards relies on appropriately worded communications targeted at the needs of the audience. But what are these needs, and how does the geoscientist discern them? This paper adopts a psychological "mental models" approach to assess the public perception of the geological subsurface, presenting the results of attitudinal studies and surveys in three communities in the south-west of England. The findings reveal important preconceptions and misconceptions regarding the impact of hydrological systems and hazards on the geological subsurface, notably in terms of the persistent conceptualisation of underground rivers and the inferred relations between flooding and human activity. The study demonstrates how such mental models can provide geoscientists with empirical, detailed and generalised data of perceptions surrounding an issue, as well reveal unexpected outliers in perception that they may not have considered relevant, but which nevertheless may locally influence communication. Using this approach, geoscientists can develop information messages that more directly engage local concerns and create open engagement pathways based on dialogue, which in turn allow both geoscience "experts" and local "non-experts" to come together and understand each other more effectively.

Capabilities of current wildfire models when simulating topographical flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochanski, A.; Jenkins, M.; Krueger, S. K.; McDermott, R.; Mell, W.

2009-12-01

Accurate predictions of the growth, spread and suppression of wild fires rely heavily on the correct prediction of the local wind conditions and the interactions between the fire and the local ambient airflow. Resolving local flows, often strongly affected by topographical features like hills, canyons and ridges, is a prerequisite for accurate simulation and prediction of fire behaviors. In this study, we present the results of high-resolution numerical simulations of the flow over a smooth hill, performed using (1) the NIST WFDS (WUI or Wildland-Urban-Interface version of the FDS or Fire Dynamic Simulator), and (2) the LES version of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-LES) model. The WFDS model is in the initial stages of development for application to wind flow and fire spread over complex terrain. The focus of the talk is to assess how well simple topographical flow is represented by WRF-LES and the current version of WFDS. If sufficient progress has been made prior to the meeting then the importance of the discrepancies between the predicted and measured winds, in terms of simulated fire behavior, will be examined.

Using Necessary Information to Identify Item Dependence in Passage-Based Reading Comprehension Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baldonado, Angela Argo; Svetina, Dubravka; Gorin, Joanna

2015-01-01

Applications of traditional unidimensional item response theory models to passage-based reading comprehension assessment data have been criticized based on potential violations of local independence. However, simple rules for determining dependency, such as including all items associated with a particular passage, may overestimate the dependency…

A Community-Scale Modeling System to Assess Port-Related Air Quality Impacts

EPA Science Inventory

Near-port air pollution has been identified by numerous organizations as a potential public health concern. Based upon multiple near-road and near-source monitoring studies, both busy roadways and large emission sources at the ports may impact local air quality within several hun...

Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant "Hanhikivi-1" on the local thermal regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Eremina, Tatjana R.; Isaev, Alexey V.; Sein, Dmitry V.

2017-04-01

The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant Hanhikivi-1 upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Source regions of concern to U.S. interests derived from NOAA Tsunami Forecast Model Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eble, M. C.; uslu, B. U.; Wright, L.

2013-12-01

Synthetic tsunamis generated from source regions around the Pacific Basin are analyzed in terms of their relative impact on United States coastal locations.. The region of tsunami origin is as important as the expected magnitude and the predicted inundation for understanding tsunami hazard. The NOAA Center for Tsunami Research has developed high-resolution tsunami models capable of predicting tsunami arrival time and amplitude of waves at each location. These models have been used to conduct tsunami hazard assessments to assess maximum impact and tsunami inundation for use by local communities in education and evacuation map development. Hazard assessment studies conducted for Los Angeles, San Francisco, Crescent City, Hilo, and Apra Harbor are combined with results of tsunami forecast model development at each of seventy-five locations. Complete hazard assessment, identifies every possible tsunami variation from a pre-computed propagation database. Study results indicate that the Eastern Aleutian Islands and Alaska are the most likely regions to produce the largest impact on the West Coast of the United States, while the East Philippines and Mariana trench regions impact Apra Harbor, Guam. Hawaii appears to be impacted equally from South America, Alaska and the Kuril Islands.

Patterns of Declining Use and the Adverse Effect of Primary Androgen Deprivation on All-cause Mortality in Elderly Men with Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Sammon, Jesse D; Abdollah, Firas; Reznor, Gally; Pucheril, Daniel; Choueiri, Toni K; Hu, Jim C; Kim, Simon P; Schmid, Marianne; Sood, Akshay; Sun, Maxine; Kibel, Adam S; Nguyen, Paul L; Menon, Mani; Trinh, Quoc-Dien

2015-07-01

Primary androgen deprivation therapy (pADT) is commonly used to treat elderly men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer (CaP), despite the lack of evidence supporting its use. To examine the effect of pADT on mortality and to assess contemporary trends of pADT use in elderly men with CaP. Men older than 65 yr residing in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry areas diagnosed with localized or locally advanced CaP between 1992 and 2009 and not receiving definitive therapy. Propensity score (PS)-weighted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the effect of pADT use on overall survival among patients receiving pADT. The interaction between comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy (LE) and pADT use was assessed within the Cox and PS-weighted models. Contemporary (2004-2009) trends for pADT use were analyzed by linear regression. The primary cohort included 46 376 men, of whom 17 873 received pADT (39%). Patients with >10 yr LE had lower pADT utilization rates than patients with short LE. Between 2004 and 2009, the use of pADT in men with localized CaP decreased by 14% (from 36% to 22%). Relative to observation, pADT was associated with a survival disadvantage, with a hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of 1.37 (95% confidence interval 1.20-1.56). Limitations included biases not accounted for by the PS-weighted model, changes in CaP staging over the study period, the absence of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) data prior to 2004, and the limits of retrospective analysis to demonstrate causality. The use of pADT in elderly men with localized CaP has decreased over time. For men forgoing primary definitive therapy, the use of pADT is not associated with a survival benefit compared to observation, and denies men an opportunity for cure with definitive therapy. The deleterious effect of pADT is most pronounced in men with prolonged LE. In this report, we assessed the effect of primary androgen deprivation (pADT) on prostate cancer mortality and determined current trends in the use of pADT. We showed that use of pADT in men aged >65 yr with localized prostate cancer has decreased over time. We also found that pADT is detrimental to men with localized prostate cancer, and particularly men with longer life expectancy. Therefore, we conclude that ADT should not be used as a primary treatment for men with prostate cancer that has not spread beyond the prostate. Copyright © 2014 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards integrated solutions for water, energy, and land using an integrated nexus modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Humanity has already reached or even exceeded the Earth's carrying capacity. Growing needs for food, energy and water will only exacerbate existing challenges over the next decades. Consequently, the acceptance of "business as usual" is eroding and we are being challenged to adopt new, more integrated, and more inclusive development pathways that avoid dangerous interference with the local environment and global planetary boundaries. This challenge is embodied in the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which endeavor to set a global agenda for moving towards more sustainable development strategies. To improve and sustain human welfare, it is critical that access to modern, reliable, and affordable water, energy, and food is expanded and maintained. The Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (IS-WEL) project has been launched by IIASA, together with the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). This project focuses on the water-energy-land nexus in the context of other major global challenges such as urbanization, environmental degradation, and equitable and sustainable futures. It develops a consistent framework for looking at the water-energy-land nexus and identify strategies for achieving the needed transformational outcomes through an advanced assessment framework. A multi-scalar approach are being developed that aims to combine global and regional integrated assessment tools with local stakeholder knowledge in order to identify robust solutions to energy, water, food, and ecosystem security in selected regions of the world. These are regions facing multiple energy, water and land use challenges and rapid demographic and economic changes, and are hardest hit by increasing climate variability and change. This project combines the global integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) with the global land (GLOBIOM) and water (Community Water Model) model respectively, and the integrated modeling framework are then combined with detailed regional decision support tools for water-energy-land nexus analysis in case study regions. A number of stakeholder meetings are used to engage local communities in the definition of important nexus drivers, scenario development and definition of performance metrics.

Predictive models attribute effects on fish assemblages to toxicity and habitat alteration.

PubMed

de Zwart, Dick; Dyer, Scott D; Posthuma, Leo; Hawkins, Charles P

2006-08-01

Biological assessments should both estimate the condition of a biological resource (magnitude of alteration) and provide environmental managers with a diagnosis of the potential causes of impairment. Although methods of quantifying condition are well developed, identifying and proportionately attributing impairment to probable causes remain problematic. Furthermore, analyses of both condition and cause have often been difficult to communicate. We developed an approach that (1) links fish, habitat, and chemistry data collected from hundreds of sites in Ohio (USA) streams, (2) assesses the biological condition at each site, (3) attributes impairment to multiple probable causes, and (4) provides the results of the analyses in simple-to-interpret pie charts. The data set was managed using a geographic information system. Biological condition was assessed using a RIVPACS (river invertebrate prediction and classification system)-like predictive model. The model provided probabilities of capture for 117 fish species based on the geographic location of sites and local habitat descriptors. Impaired biological condition was defined as the proportion of those native species predicted to occur at a site that were observed. The potential toxic effects of exposure to mixtures of contaminants were estimated using species sensitivity distributions and mixture toxicity principles. Generalized linear regression models described species abundance as a function of habitat characteristics. Statistically linking biological condition, habitat characteristics including mixture risks, and species abundance allowed us to evaluate the losses of species with environmental conditions. Results were mapped as simple effect and probable-cause pie charts (EPC pie diagrams), with pie sizes corresponding to magnitude of local impairment, and slice sizes to the relative probable contributions of different stressors. The types of models we used have been successfully applied in ecology and ecotoxicology, but they have not previously been used in concert to quantify impairment and its likely causes. Although data limitations constrained our ability to examine complex interactions between stressors and species, the direct relationships we detected likely represent conservative estimates of stressor contributions to local impairment. Future refinements of the general approach and specific methods described here should yield even more promising results.

Duodenal localization is a negative predictor of survival after small bowel adenocarcinoma resection: A population-based, propensity score-matched analysis.

PubMed

Wilhelm, Alexander; Galata, Christian; Beutner, Ulrich; Schmied, Bruno M; Warschkow, Rene; Steffen, Thomas; Brunner, Walter; Post, Stefan; Marti, Lukas

2018-03-01

This study assessed the influence of tumor localization of small bowel adenocarcinoma on survival after surgical resection. Patients with resected small bowel adenocarcinoma, ACJJ stage I-III, were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2004 to 2013. The impact of tumor localization on overall and cancer-specific survival was assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression models with and without risk-adjustment and propensity score methods. Adenocarcinoma was localized to the duodenum in 549 of 1025 patients (53.6%). There was no time trend for duodenal localization (P = 0.514). The 5-year cancer-specific survival rate was 48.2% (95%CI: 43.3-53.7%) for patients with duodenal carcinoma and 66.6% (95%CI: 61.6-72.1%) for patients with cancer located in the jejunum or ileum. Duodenal localization was associated with worse overall and cancer-specific survival in univariable (HR = 1.73; HR = 1.81, respectively; both P < 0.001), multivariable (HR = 1.52; HR = 1.65; both P < 0.001), and propensity score-adjusted analyses (HR = 1.33, P = 0.012; HR = 1.50, P = 0.002). Furthermore, young age, retrieval of more than 12 regional lymph nodes, less advanced stage, and married matrimonial status were positive, independent prognostic factors. Duodenal localization is an independent risk factor for poor survival after resection of adenocarcinoma. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Flame-Vortex Interactions in Microgravity to Improve Models of Turbulent Combustion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Driscoll, James F.

1999-01-01

A unique flame-vortex interaction experiment is being operated in microgravity in order to obtain fundamental data to assess the Theory of Flame Stretch which will be used to improve models of turbulent combustion. The experiment provides visual images of the physical process by which an individual eddy in a turbulent flow increases the flame surface area, changes the local flame propagation speed, and can extinguish the reaction. The high quality microgravity images provide benchmark data that are free from buoyancy effects. Results are used to assess Direct Numerical Simulations of Dr. K. Kailasanath at NRL, which were run for the same conditions.

Assessing the local mechanical environment in medial opening wedge high tibial osteotomy using finite element analysis.

PubMed

Pauchard, Yves; Ivanov, Todor G; McErlain, David D; Milner, Jaques S; Giffin, J Robert; Birmingham, Trevor B; Holdsworth, David W

2015-03-01

High-tibial osteotomy (HTO) is a surgical technique aimed at shifting load away from one tibiofemoral compartment, in order the reduce pain and progression of osteoarthritis (OA). Various implants have been designed to stabilize the osteotomy and previous studies have been focused on determining primary stability (a global measure) that these designs provide. It has been shown that the local mechanical environment, characterized by bone strains and segment micromotion, is important in understanding healing and these data are not currently available. Finite element (FE) modeling was utilized to assess the local mechanical environment provided by three different fixation plate designs: short plate with spacer, long plate with spacer and long plate without spacer. Image-based FE models of the knee were constructed from healthy individuals (N = 5) with normal knee alignment. An HTO gap was virtually added without changing the knee alignment and HTO implants were inserted. Subsequently, the local mechanical environment, defined by bone compressive strain and wedge micromotion, was assessed. Furthermore, implant stresses were calculated. Values were computed under vertical compression in zero-degree knee extension with loads set at 1 and 2 times the subject-specific body weight (1 BW, 2 BW). All studied HTO implant designs provide an environment for successful healing at 1 BW and 2 BW loading. Implant von Mises stresses (99th percentile) were below 60 MPa in all experiments, below the material yield strength and significantly lower in long spacer plates. Volume fraction of high compressive strain ( > 3000 microstrain) was below 5% in all experiments and no significant difference between implants was detected. Maximum vertical micromotion between bone segments was below 200 μm in all experiments and significantly larger in the implant without a tooth. Differences between plate designs generally became apparent only at 2 BW loading. Results suggest that with compressive loading of 2 BW, long spacer plates experience the lowest implant stresses, and spacer plates (long or short) result in smaller wedge micromotion, potentially beneficial for healing. Values are sensitive to subject bone geometry, highlighting the need for subject-specific modeling. This study demonstrates the benefits of using image-based FE modeling and bone theory to fine-tune HTO implant design.

Local Site Characterization Using HVSR, ReMi, and SPAC, Study Case: Soccer Field At Autonomous University of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upegui Botero, F. M.; Rojas Mercedes, N.; Huerta-Lopez, C.; Martinez-Cruzado, J. A.; Suárez, L.; Lopez, A. M.; Huerfano Moreno, V.

2013-12-01

Earthquake effects are frequently quantified by the energy liberated at the source, and the degree of damage produced in urban areas. The damage of historic events such as the Mw=8.3, September 19, 1985 Mexico City Earthquake was dominated by the amplification of seismic waves due to local site conditions. The assessment of local site effects can be carried out with site response analyses in order to determine the properties of the subsoil such as the dominant period, and the Vs30. The evaluation of the aforementioned properties is through the analysis of ground motion. However, in locations with low seismicity, the most convenient method to assess the site effect is the analysis of ambient vibration measurements. The Spatial Auto Correlation method (SPAC) can be used to determine a Vs30 model from ambient vibration measurements using a triangular array of sensors. Refraction Microtremor (ReMi) considers the phase velocity of the Rayleigh waves can be separated of apparent velocities; the aim of the ReMI method is to obtain the Vs30 model. The HVSR technique or Nakamura's method has been adopted to obtain the resonant frequency of the site from the calculation of ratio between the Fourier amplitude spectra or PSD spectrum of the horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibration. The aim of this work is to compare the results using different techniques to assess local site conditions in the urban area of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. The data used was collected during the Pan-American Advance Studies Institute (PASI), Workshop held in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic from July 14 to 25, 2013. The PASI was sponsored by IRIS Consortium, NSF and DOE. Results obtained using SPAC, and ReMi, show a comparable model of surface waves velocities. In addition to the above, the HVSR method is combined with the stiffness matrices method for layered soils to calculate a model of velocities and the predominant period on the site. As part of this work a comparison with geological and geotechnical data on the studied sites was carried out. The advantages and limitations of each procedure are discussed in detail. HVSR Results

A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

2009-09-01

Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

The Patient-Centered Medical Home: Preparation of the Workforce, More Questions than Answers.

PubMed

Reynolds, P Preston; Klink, Kathleen; Gilman, Stuart; Green, Larry A; Phillips, Russell S; Shipman, Scott; Keahey, David; Rugen, Kathryn; Davis, Molly

2015-07-01

As American medicine continues to undergo significant transformation, the patient-centered medical home (PCMH) is emerging as an interprofessional primary care model designed to deliver the right care for patients, by the right professional, at the right time, in the right setting, for the right cost. A review of local, state, regional and national initiatives to train professionals in delivering care within the PCMH model reveals some successes, but substantial challenges. Workforce policy recommendations designed to improve PCMH effectiveness and efficiency include 1) adoption of an expanded definition of primary care, 2) fundamental redesign of health professions education, 3) payment reform, 4) responsiveness to local needs assessments, and 5) systems improvement to emphasize quality, population health, and health disparities.

An Improved Analytical Model of the Local Interstellar Magnetic Field: The Extension to Compressibility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleimann, Jens; Fichtner, Horst; Röken, Christian, E-mail: jk@tp4.rub.de, E-mail: hf@tp4.rub.de, E-mail: christian.roeken@mathematik.uni-regensburg.de

A previously published analytical magnetohydrodynamic model for the local interstellar magnetic field in the vicinity of the heliopause (Röken et al. 2015) is extended from incompressible to compressible, yet predominantly subsonic flow, considering both isothermal and adiabatic equations of state. Exact expressions and suitable approximations for the density and the flow velocity are derived and discussed. In addition to the stationary induction equation, these expressions also satisfy the momentum balance equation along stream lines. The practical usefulness of the corresponding, still exact, analytical magnetic field solution is assessed by comparing it quantitatively to results from a fully self-consistent magnetohydrodynamic simulationmore » of the interstellar magnetic field draping around the heliopause.« less

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish

PubMed Central

Brown, Larry R.; Komoroske, Lisa M.; Wagner, R. Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; May, Jason T.; Connon, Richard E.; Fangue, Nann A.

2016-01-01

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species’ persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010–2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18–85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions. PMID:26796147

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish.

PubMed

Brown, Larry R; Komoroske, Lisa M; Wagner, R Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; May, Jason T; Connon, Richard E; Fangue, Nann A

2016-01-01

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species' persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010-2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18-85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.

Coupled downscaled climate models and ecophysiological metrics forecast habitat compression for an endangered estuarine fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Larry R.; Komoroske, Lisa M; Wagner, R Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; May, Jason T.; Connon, Richard E; Fangue, Nann A.

2016-01-01

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species’ persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010–2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18–85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.

A Unified Model for BDS Wide Area and Local Area Augmentation Positioning Based on Raw Observations.

PubMed

Tu, Rui; Zhang, Rui; Lu, Cuixian; Zhang, Pengfei; Liu, Jinhai; Lu, Xiaochun

2017-03-03

In this study, a unified model for BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) wide area and local area augmentation positioning based on raw observations has been proposed. Applying this model, both the Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) service can be realized by performing different corrections at the user end. This algorithm was assessed and validated with the BDS data collected at four regional stations from Day of Year (DOY) 080 to 083 of 2016. When the users are located within the local reference network, the fast and high precision RTK service can be achieved using the regional observation corrections, revealing a convergence time of about several seconds and a precision of about 2-3 cm. For the users out of the regional reference network, the global broadcast State-Space Represented (SSR) corrections can be utilized to realize the global PPP service which shows a convergence time of about 25 min for achieving an accuracy of 10 cm. With this unified model, it can not only integrate the Network RTK (NRTK) and PPP into a seamless positioning service, but also recover the ionosphere Vertical Total Electronic Content (VTEC) and Differential Code Bias (DCB) values that are useful for the ionosphere monitoring and modeling.

A Unified Model for BDS Wide Area and Local Area Augmentation Positioning Based on Raw Observations

PubMed Central

Tu, Rui; Zhang, Rui; Lu, Cuixian; Zhang, Pengfei; Liu, Jinhai; Lu, Xiaochun

2017-01-01

In this study, a unified model for BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) wide area and local area augmentation positioning based on raw observations has been proposed. Applying this model, both the Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) service can be realized by performing different corrections at the user end. This algorithm was assessed and validated with the BDS data collected at four regional stations from Day of Year (DOY) 080 to 083 of 2016. When the users are located within the local reference network, the fast and high precision RTK service can be achieved using the regional observation corrections, revealing a convergence time of about several seconds and a precision of about 2–3 cm. For the users out of the regional reference network, the global broadcast State-Space Represented (SSR) corrections can be utilized to realize the global PPP service which shows a convergence time of about 25 min for achieving an accuracy of 10 cm. With this unified model, it can not only integrate the Network RTK (NRTK) and PPP into a seamless positioning service, but also recover the ionosphere Vertical Total Electronic Content (VTEC) and Differential Code Bias (DCB) values that are useful for the ionosphere monitoring and modeling. PMID:28273814

Sequential simulation approach to modeling of multi-seam coal deposits with an application to the assessment of a Louisiana lignite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, Ricardo A.; Luppens, James A.

2012-01-01

There are multiple ways to characterize uncertainty in the assessment of coal resources, but not all of them are equally satisfactory. Increasingly, the tendency is toward borrowing from the statistical tools developed in the last 50 years for the quantitative assessment of other mineral commodities. Here, we briefly review the most recent of such methods and formulate a procedure for the systematic assessment of multi-seam coal deposits taking into account several geological factors, such as fluctuations in thickness, erosion, oxidation, and bed boundaries. A lignite deposit explored in three stages is used for validating models based on comparing a first set of drill holes against data from infill and development drilling. Results were fully consistent with reality, providing a variety of maps, histograms, and scatterplots characterizing the deposit and associated uncertainty in the assessments. The geostatistical approach was particularly informative in providing a probability distribution modeling deposit wide uncertainty about total resources and a cumulative distribution of coal tonnage as a function of local uncertainty.

Wastewater for agriculture: A reuse-oriented planning model and its application in peri-urban China.

PubMed

Murray, Ashley; Ray, Isha

2010-03-01

The benefits of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) are widely known but its recommendations remain thinly implemented. Designing wastewater treatment plants for reuse in irrigation is a particularly underutilized IWRM opportunity that could potentially increase agricultural yields, conserve surface water, offset chemical fertilizer demand, and reduce the costs of wastewater treatment by eliminating nutrient removal processes. This paper presents a novel planning model, consisting of a reuse-centric performance assessment and optimization model to help design wastewater treatment plants for reuse in agriculture. The performance assessment and optimization model are described, and their coupled application is demonstrated in the peri-urban district of Pixian, China. Based on the results of the performance assessment, two reuse scenarios are evaluated: wastewater to supplement business as usual (BAU) irrigation, and wastewater to replace BAU irrigation. The results indicate that wastewater supplementation could increase profits by $20 million (M) annually; alternatively, wastewater replacement could conserve 35Mm(3) of water in local rivers each year. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism

PubMed Central

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-01-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species–environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile–climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r2 = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r2 = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses. PMID:25473479

Evaluation as a critical factor of success in local public health accreditation programs.

PubMed

Tremain, Beverly; Davis, Mary; Joly, Brenda; Edgar, Mark; Kushion, Mary L; Schmidt, Rita

2007-01-01

This article presents the variety of approaches used to conduct evaluations of performance improvement or accreditation systems, while illustrating the complexity of conducting evaluations to inform local public health practice. We, in addition, hope to inform the Exploring Accreditation Program about relevant experiences involving accreditation and performance assessment processes, specifically evaluation, as it debates and discusses a national voluntary model. A background of each state is given. To further explore these issues, interviews were conducted with each state's evaluator to gain more in-depth information on the many different evaluation strategies and approaches used. On the basis of the interviews, the authors provide several overall themes, which suggest that evaluation is a critical tool and success factor for performance assessment or accreditation programs.

Low-cost multi-vehicle air temperature measurements for heat load assessment in local-scale climate applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Weyss, Gernot; Aloise, Giulliano; Mifka, Boris; Löffelmann, Philemon; Hollosi, Brigitta; Nemec, Johana; Vucetic, Visnja

2014-05-01

In the recent years there has been a strong interest in exploring the potential of low-cost measurement devices as alternative source of meteorological monitoring data, especially in the urban areas where high-density observations become crucial for appropriate heat load assessment. One of the simple, but efficient approaches for gathering large amount of spatial data is through mobile measurement campaigns in which the sensors are attached to driving vehicles. However, non-standardized data collecting procedure, instrument quality, their response-time and design, variable device ventilation and radiation protection influence the reliability of the gathered data. We investigate what accuracy can be expected from the data collected through low-cost mobile measurements and whether the achieved quality of the data is sufficient for validation of the state-of-the-art local-scale climate models. We tested 5 types of temperature sensors and data loggers: Maxim iButton, Lascar EL-USB-2-LCD+ and Onset HOBO UX100-003 as market available devices and self-designed solar powered Arduino-based data loggers combined with the AOSONG AM2315 and Sensirion SHT21 temperature and humidity sensors. The devices were calibrated and tested in stationary mode at the Austrian Weather Service showing accuracy between 0.1°C and 0.8°C, which was mostly within the device specification range. In mobile mode, the best response-time was found for self-designed device with Arduino-based data logger and Sensirion SHT21 sensor. However, the device lacks the mechanical robustness and should be further improved for broad-range applications. We organized 4 measurement tours: two taking place in urban environment (Vienna, Austria in July 2011 and July 2013) and two in countryside with complex terrain of Mid-Adriatic islands (Hvar and Korcula, Croatia in August 2013). Measurements were taken on clear-sky, dry and hot days. We combined multiple devices attached to bicycle and cars with different radiation protection. Duration of each measurement tour lasted approximately 2 hours covering the distances in radius of about 10-30 km, logging the air temperature and geographical positioning in intervals of 1-5 seconds. The collected data were aggregated on a 100 m horizontal resolution grid and compared with the local-scale climate modelling simulations with the urban climate model MUKLIMO3 initialized with the atmospheric conditions for a given day. Both measurement and modelling results show similar features for distinct local climate zones (built-up area, near water environment, forest, parks, agricultural area, etc). The spatial gradients in temperature can be assigned to different orographical and land use characteristics. Even if many ambiguities remain in both modelling and the measurement approach, the collected data provide useful information for local-scale heat assessment and can serve as a base to increase the model reliability, especially in areas with low data coverage.

The Work Instability Scale for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA-WIS): Does it work in osteoarthritis?

PubMed

Tang, Kenneth; Beaton, Dorcas E; Lacaille, Diane; Gignac, Monique A M; Zhang, Wei; Anis, Aslam H; Bombardier, Claire

2010-09-01

To validate the 23-item Work Instability Scale for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA-WIS) for use in osteoarthritis (OA) using both classical test theory and item response theory approaches. Baseline and 12-month follow-up data were collected from workers with OA recruited from community and clinical settings (n = 130). Fit of RA-WIS data to the Rasch model was evaluated by item- and person-fit statistics (size of residual, chi-sq), assessments of differential item functioning, and tests of unidimensionality and local independence. Internal consistency was assessed by KR-20. Convergent construct validity (Spearman r, known-groups) was evaluated against theoretical constructs that assess impact of health on work. Responsiveness to global indicators of change was assessed by standardized response means (SRM) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Data structure of the RA-WIS showed adequate fit to the Rasch model (chi-sq = 83.2, P = 0.03) after addressing local dependency in three item pairs by creating testlets. High internal consistency (KR-20 = 0.93) and convergent validity with work-oriented constructs (|r| = 0.55-0.77) were evident. The RA-WIS correlated most strongly with the concept of illness intrusiveness (r = 0.77) and was highly responsive to changes (SRM = 1.05 [deterioration]; -0.78 [improvement]). Although developed for RA, the RA-WIS is psychometrically sound for OA and demonstrates interval-level property.

How To Assess The Future Tree-Cover Potential For Reforestation Planning In Semi-Arid Regions? An Attempt Using The Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.

2015-12-01

More and more reforestation projects are undertaken at local to continental scales to fight desertification, to address development challenges, and to improve local living conditions in tropical semi-arid regions. These regions are very sensitive to climatic changes and the potential for maintaining tree-covers will be altered in the next decades. Therefore, reforestation planning needs predicting the future "climatic tree-cover potential": the optimum tree-fraction sustainable in future climatic states. Global circulation models projections provide possible future climatologies for the 21st century. These can be used at the global scale to force a land-surface model, which in turn simulates the vegetation development under these conditions. The tree cover leading to an optimum development may then be identified. We propose here to run a state-of-the-art model and to assess the span and the relevance of the answers that can be obtained for reforestation planning. The ORCHIDEE vegetation model is chosen here to allow a multi-criteria evaluation of the optimum cover, as it returns surface climate state variables as well as vegetation functioning and biomass products. It is forced with global climate data (WFDEI and CRU) for the 20th century and models projections (CMIP5 outputs) for the 21st century. At the grid-cell resolution of the forcing climate data, tree-covers ranging from 0 to 100% are successively prescribed. A set of indicators is then derived from the model outputs, meant for modulating reforestation strategies according to the regional priorities (e.g. maximize the biomass production or decrease the surface air temperature). The choice of indicators and the relevance of the final answers provided will be collectively assessed by the climate scientists and reforestation project management experts from the KINOME social enterprise (http://en.kinome.fr). Such feedback will point towards the model most urging needs for improvement.

Large-scale model-based assessment of deer-vehicle collision risk.

PubMed

Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2012-01-01

Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer-vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on >74,000 deer-vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer-vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer-vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment-deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new "deer-vehicle collision index" for deer management. We show that the risk of deer-vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer-vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer-vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining hunting quota. Open-source software implementing the model can be used to transfer our modelling approach to wildlife-vehicle collisions elsewhere.

Large-Scale Model-Based Assessment of Deer-Vehicle Collision Risk

PubMed Central

Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2012-01-01

Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer–vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on 74,000 deer–vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer–vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer–vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer–vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment–deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new “deer–vehicle collision index” for deer management. We show that the risk of deer–vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer–vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer–vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining hunting quota. Open-source software implementing the model can be used to transfer our modelling approach to wildlife–vehicle collisions elsewhere. PMID:22359535

An a priori DNS study of the shadow-position mixing model

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Xin -Yu; Bhagatwala, Ankit; Chen, Jacqueline H.; ...

2016-01-15

In this study, the modeling of mixing by molecular diffusion is a central aspect for transported probability density function (tPDF) methods. In this paper, the newly-proposed shadow position mixing model (SPMM) is examined, using a DNS database for a temporally evolving di-methyl ether slot jet flame. Two methods that invoke different levels of approximation are proposed to extract the shadow displacement (equivalent to shadow position) from the DNS database. An approach for a priori analysis of the mixing-model performance is developed. The shadow displacement is highly correlated with both mixture fraction and velocity, and the peak correlation coefficient of themore » shadow displacement and mixture fraction is higher than that of the shadow displacement and velocity. This suggests that the composition-space localness is reasonably well enforced by the model, with appropriate choices of model constants. The conditional diffusion of mixture fraction and major species from DNS and from SPMM are then compared, using mixing rates that are derived by matching the mixture fraction scalar dissipation rates. Good qualitative agreement is found, for the prediction of the locations of zero and maximum/minimum conditional diffusion locations for mixture fraction and individual species. Similar comparisons are performed for DNS and the IECM (interaction by exchange with the conditional mean) model. The agreement between SPMM and DNS is better than that between IECM and DNS, in terms of conditional diffusion iso-contour similarities and global normalized residual levels. It is found that a suitable value for the model constant c that controls the mixing frequency can be derived using the local normalized scalar variance, and that the model constant a controls the localness of the model. A higher-Reynolds-number test case is anticipated to be more appropriate to evaluate the mixing models, and stand-alone transported PDF simulations are required to more fully enforce localness and to assess model performance.« less

Where Is Obesity Prevention on the Map? Distribution and Predictors of Local Health Department Prevention Activities in Relation to County-Level Obesity Prevalence in the US

PubMed Central

Stamatakis, Katherine A.; Leatherdale, Scott T.; Marx, Christine; Yan, Yan; Colditz, Graham A.; Brownson, Ross C.

2013-01-01

Context The system of local health departments (LHD) in the US has potential to advance a locally-oriented public health response in obesity control and reduce geographic disparities. However, the extent to which obesity prevention programs correspond to local obesity levels is unknown. Objective This study examines the extent to which LHDs across the US have responded to local levels of obesity by examining the association between jurisdiction level obesity prevalence and the existence of obesity prevention programs. Design Data on LHD organizational characteristics from the Profile Study of Local Health Departments and county-level estimates of obesity from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were analyzed (n=2,300). Since local public health systems are nested within state infrastructure, multilevel models were used to examine the relationship between county-level obesity prevalence and LHD obesity prevention programming and to assess the impact of state-level clustering. Setting 2,300 local health department jurisdictions defined with respect to county boundaries Participants Practitioners in local health departments who responded to the 2005 Profile Study of Local Health Departments. Main Outcome Measures Likelihood of having obesity prevention activities and association with area-level obesity prevalence Results The existence of obesity prevention activities was not associated with prevalence of obesity in the jurisdiction. A substantial portion of the variance in LHD activities was explained by state-level clustering. Conclusions This paper identified a gap in the local public health response to the obesity epidemic and underscores the importance of multilevel modeling in examining predictors of LHD performance. PMID:22836530

AI-based (ANN and SVM) statistical downscaling methods for precipitation estimation under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrvand, Masoud; Baghanam, Aida Hosseini; Razzaghzadeh, Zahra; Nourani, Vahid

2017-04-01

Since statistical downscaling methods are the most largely used models to study hydrologic impact studies under climate change scenarios, nonlinear regression models known as Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based models such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) have been used to spatially downscale the precipitation outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs). The study has been carried out using GCM and station data over GCM grid points located around the Peace-Tampa Bay watershed weather stations. Before downscaling with AI-based model, correlation coefficient values have been computed between a few selected large-scale predictor variables and local scale predictands to select the most effective predictors. The selected predictors are then assessed considering grid location for the site in question. In order to increase AI-based downscaling model accuracy pre-processing has been developed on precipitation time series. In this way, the precipitation data derived from various GCM data analyzed thoroughly to find the highest value of correlation coefficient between GCM-based historical data and station precipitation data. Both GCM and station precipitation time series have been assessed by comparing mean and variances over specific intervals. Results indicated that there is similar trend between GCM and station precipitation data; however station data has non-stationary time series while GCM data does not. Finally AI-based downscaling model have been applied to several GCMs with selected predictors by targeting local precipitation time series as predictand. The consequences of recent step have been used to produce multiple ensembles of downscaled AI-based models.

The impact of covariance localization on the performance of an ocean EnKF system assimilating glider data in the Ligurian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falchetti, Silvia; Alvarez, Alberto

2018-04-01

Data assimilation through an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is not exempt from deficiencies, including the generation of long-range unphysical correlations that degrade its performance. The covariance localization technique has been proposed and used in previous research to mitigate this effect. However, an evaluation of its performance is usually hindered by the sparseness and unsustained collection of independent observations. This article assesses the performance of an ocean prediction system composed of a multivariate EnKF coupled with a regional configuration of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) with a covariance localization solution and data assimilation from an ocean glider that operated over a limited region of the Ligurian Sea. Simultaneous with the operation of the forecast system, a high-quality data set was repeatedly collected with a CTD sensor, i.e., every day during the period from 5 to 20 August 2013 (approximately 4 to 5 times the synoptic time scale of the area), located on board the NR/V Alliance for model validation. Comparisons between the validation data set and the forecasts provide evidence that the performance of the prediction system with covariance localization is superior to that observed using only EnKF assimilation without localization or using a free run ensemble. Furthermore, it is shown that covariance localization also increases the robustness of the model to the location of the assimilated data. Our analysis reveals that improvements are detected with regard to not only preventing the occurrence of spurious correlations but also preserving the spatial coherence in the updated covariance matrix. Covariance localization has been shown to be relevant in operational frameworks where short-term forecasts (on the order of days) are required.

Development of an Empirical Local Magnitude Formula for Northern Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spriggs, N.; Karimi, S.; Moores, A. O.

2015-12-01

In this paper we focus on determining a local magnitude formula for northern Oklahoma that is unbiased with distance by empirically constraining the attenuation properties within the region of interest based on the amplitude of observed seismograms. For regional networks detecting events over several hundred kilometres, distance correction terms play an important role in determining the magnitude of an event. Standard distance correction terms such as Hutton and Boore (1987) may have a significant bias with distance if applied in a region with different attenuation properties, resulting in an incorrect magnitude. We have presented data from a regional network of broadband seismometers installed in bedrock in northern Oklahoma. The events with magnitude in the range of 2.0 and 4.5, distributed evenly across this network are considered. We find that existing models show a bias with respect to hypocentral distance. Observed amplitude measurements demonstrate that there is a significant Moho bounce effect that mandates the use of a trilinear attenuation model in order to avoid bias in the distance correction terms. We present two different approaches of local magnitude calibration. The first maintains the classic definition of local magnitude as proposed by Richter. The second method calibrates local magnitude so that it agrees with moment magnitude where a regional moment tensor can be computed. To this end, regional moment tensor solutions and moment magnitudes are computed for events with magnitude larger than 3.5 to allow calibration of local magnitude to moment magnitude. For both methods the new formula results in magnitudes systematically lower than previous values computed with Eaton's (1992) model. We compare the resulting magnitudes and discuss the benefits and drawbacks of each method. Our results highlight the importance of correct calibration of the distance correction terms for accurate local magnitude assessment in regional networks.

Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

2011-12-01

Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

Wireless vibration monitoring for damage detection of highway bridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whelan, Matthew J.; Gangone, Michael V.; Janoyan, Kerop D.; Jha, Ratneshwar

2008-03-01

The development of low-cost wireless sensor networks has resulted in resurgence in the development of ambient vibration monitoring methods to assess the in-service condition of highway bridges. However, a reliable approach towards assessing the health of an in-service bridge and identifying and localizing damage without a priori knowledge of the vibration response history has yet to be formulated. A two-part study is in progress to evaluate and develop existing and proposed damage detection schemes. The first phase utilizes a laboratory bridge model to investigate the vibration response characteristics induced through introduction of changes to structural members, connections, and support conditions. A second phase of the study will validate the damage detection methods developed from the laboratory testing with progressive damage testing of an in-service highway bridge scheduled for replacement. The laboratory bridge features a four meter span, one meter wide, steel frame with a steel and cement board deck composed of sheet layers to regulate mass loading and simulate deck wear. Bolted connections and elastomeric bearings provide a means for prescribing variable local stiffness and damping effects to the laboratory model. A wireless sensor network consisting of fifty-six accelerometers accommodated by twenty-eight local nodes facilitates simultaneous, real-time and high-rate acquisition of the vibrations throughout the bridge structure. Measurement redundancy is provided by an array of wired linear displacement sensors as well as a scanning laser vibrometer. This paper presents the laboratory model and damage scenarios, a brief description of the developed wireless sensor network platform, an overview of available test and measurement instrumentation within the laboratory, and baseline measurements of dynamic response of the laboratory bridge model.

Assessing local resilience to typhoon disasters: A case study in Nansha, Guangzhou.

PubMed

Song, Jinglu; Huang, Bo; Li, Rongrong

2018-01-01

Building communities' resilience to natural weather hazards requires the appropriate assessment of such capabilities. The resilience of a community is affected not only by social, economic, and infrastructural factors but also by natural factors (including both site characteristics and the intensity and frequency of events). To date, studies of natural factors have tended to draw on annual censuses and to use aggregated data, thus allowing only a limited understanding of site-specific hot or cold spots of resilience. To improve this situation, we carried out a comprehensive assessment of resilience to typhoon disasters in Nansha district, Guangzhou, China. We measured disaster resilience on 1×1-km grid units with respect to socioeconomic and infrastructural dimensions using a set of variables and also estimated natural factors in a detailed manner with a meteorological modeling tool, the Weather Research and Forecast model. We selected typhoon samples over the past 10 years, simulated the maximum typhoon-borne strong winds and precipitation of each sample, and predicted the wind speed and precipitation volume at the 100-year return-level on the basis of extreme value analysis. As a result, a composite resilience index was devised by combining factors in different domains using factor analysis coupled with the analytic hierarchy process. Resilience mapping using this composite resilience index allows local governments and planners to identify potential hot or cold spots of resilience and the dominant factors in particular locations, thereby assisting them in making more rational site-specific measures to improve local resilience to future typhoon disasters.

Assessing local resilience to typhoon disasters: A case study in Nansha, Guangzhou

PubMed Central

Huang, Bo; Li, Rongrong

2018-01-01

Building communities’ resilience to natural weather hazards requires the appropriate assessment of such capabilities. The resilience of a community is affected not only by social, economic, and infrastructural factors but also by natural factors (including both site characteristics and the intensity and frequency of events). To date, studies of natural factors have tended to draw on annual censuses and to use aggregated data, thus allowing only a limited understanding of site-specific hot or cold spots of resilience. To improve this situation, we carried out a comprehensive assessment of resilience to typhoon disasters in Nansha district, Guangzhou, China. We measured disaster resilience on 1×1-km grid units with respect to socioeconomic and infrastructural dimensions using a set of variables and also estimated natural factors in a detailed manner with a meteorological modeling tool, the Weather Research and Forecast model. We selected typhoon samples over the past 10 years, simulated the maximum typhoon-borne strong winds and precipitation of each sample, and predicted the wind speed and precipitation volume at the 100-year return-level on the basis of extreme value analysis. As a result, a composite resilience index was devised by combining factors in different domains using factor analysis coupled with the analytic hierarchy process. Resilience mapping using this composite resilience index allows local governments and planners to identify potential hot or cold spots of resilience and the dominant factors in particular locations, thereby assisting them in making more rational site-specific measures to improve local resilience to future typhoon disasters. PMID:29522526

Restoration of degraded drylands in northern Chile: The need of local stakeholders' participation to prevent and combat desertification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorquera-Jaramillo, Carmen; Yáñez-Acevedo, Marcia; Gutiérrez, Julio R.; Cortés-Bugueño, José Luis; Pastén-Marambio, Víctor; Barraza-Cepeda, Claudia

2015-04-01

Desertification is one of the main factors determining poverty, long-term socio-economic problems, natural resources depletion and disturbances in rural communities living at the Coquimbo Region drylands (North-Central Chile). The Chilean State, along with private initiatives, have invested 473.6 Million dollars (1976 to 2008) to recover degraded areas through afforestation and soil management of 1,373,758 hectares. However, there is no information about the impact of the practices and changes experienced by the local stakeholders. Therefore, there is a need for a comprehensive evaluation considering both socioeconomic and biophysical aspects. To this end, a Protocol on Integrated Assessment (IAPro, PRACTICE project) was applied in two rural communities, involving communal afforested sites and their adjacent degraded drylands: El Sauce (ES, Limarí province) and Las Cañas (LC, Choapa province), Coquimbo Region. Participatory afforestation and soil conservation projects were implemented at both sites by the Chilean National Forestry Service (CONAF) in agreement with each local community (Jiménez y Tapia Agricultural Community at ES and Las Cañas de Choapa Peasant's Community at LC). The protocol involved 7 steps: (1) Stakeholder platform identification and engagement; (2) Baseline assessment and selection of site-specific indicators; (3) Integration and weighting of common and site-specific indicators; (4) Data collection; (5) Integrating and perspectives on a MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis); (6) Collective Integrated assessment and knowledge sharing; (7) Dissemination. Interviews involved local and institutional stakeholders related to both sites' implementation, administration and/or local impacts. For the ES site, 5 actions were defined and assessed: No action (control); fences; mechanic and biological practices (soil stabilization, runoff control on slopes); runoff control in micro-basins, gullies and ravines; and footpath for educational and demonstration purposes. The same actions plus 'conservation and management of native forests/shrubs at strict exclosure' were identified at LC site. All of the stakeholders interviewed at both sites recognized the actions, but not all of them had specific knowledge about some of the practices. Afforestation was the most selected and valued practice, revealing deep knowledge about the actions and positive valuation of the site experience, but also a need of more support for maintenance. At ES, the main concerns were drought and derived unemployment; at LC, the main concerns were access to the site, prolonged droughts, local conflicts and lack of community commitment. At both sites, many stakeholders highlighted the need for more financial support, better management and assistance in solving local conflicts. External stakeholders value both sites as replicable models and their positive impacts in increasing afforestation and soil conservation experiences; they also identify a need for continuous financial support and the exploration of other models for site implementation and educational activities. The integrated assessment identified a match between the trends in biophysical indicators' results and the perspectives on those indicators expressed by stakeholders. It remained clear that every intervention to combat desertification requires an active involvement of local stakeholders and the implementation of educational modules to ensure the adoption of appropriate practices. Keywords: Land degradation - restoration actions - participatory approach - economic and environmental aspects - recovery of degraded drylands

Effects of payments for ecosystem services on wildlife habitat recovery.

PubMed

Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Viña, Andrés; Yang, Wu; Chen, Xiaodong; Shortridge, Ashton M; Liu, Jianguo

2016-08-01

Conflicts between local people's livelihoods and conservation have led to many unsuccessful conservation efforts and have stimulated debates on policies that might simultaneously promote sustainable management of protected areas and improve the living conditions of local people. Many government-sponsored payments-for-ecosystem-services (PES) schemes have been implemented around the world. However, few empirical assessments of their effectiveness have been conducted, and even fewer assessments have directly measured their effects on ecosystem services. We conducted an empirical and spatially explicit assessment of the conservation effectiveness of one of the world's largest PES programs through the use of a long-term empirical data set, a satellite-based habitat model, and spatial autoregressive analyses on direct measures of change in an ecosystem service (i.e., the provision of wildlife species habitat). Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat improved in Wolong Nature Reserve of China after the implementation of the Natural Forest Conservation Program. The improvement was more pronounced in areas monitored by local residents than those monitored by the local government, but only when a higher payment was provided. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of a PES program depends on who receives the payment and on whether the payment provides sufficient incentives. As engagement of local residents has not been incorporated in many conservation strategies elsewhere in China or around the world, our results also suggest that using an incentive-based strategy as a complement to command-and-control, community- and norm-based strategies may help achieve greater conservation effectiveness and provide a potential solution for the park versus people conflict. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Differential response of surface temperature and atmospheric temperature to the biogeophysical effects of deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, J.; Reick, C. H.; Lejeune, Q.; Pongratz, J.

2017-12-01

Deforestation influences temperature locally by changing the water, energy and momentum balance. While most observation-based studies and some modeling studies focused on the effects on surface temperature, other studies focused on the effects on near-surface air temperature. However, these two variables may respond differently to deforestation because changes in albedo and surface roughness may alter the land-atmosphere coupling and thus the vertical temperature distribution. Thus it is unclear whether it is possible to compare studies that assess the impacts of deforestation on these two different variables. Here, we analyze the biogeophysical effects of global-scale deforestation in the climate model MPI-ESM separately for surface temperature, 2m-air temperature and temperature the lowest atmospheric model layer. We investigate why the response of these variables differs by isolating the effects of only changing surface albedo and only changing surface roughness and by separating effects that are induced at the location of deforestation (local effects) from effects that are induced by advection and changes in circulation (nonlocal effects). Concerning surface temperature, we find that the local effects of deforestation lead to a global mean warming which is overcompensated by the nonlocal effects (up to 0.1K local warming versus -0.3K nonlocal cooling). The surface warming in the local effects is largely driven by the change in surface roughness while the cooling in the nonlocal effects is largely driven by the change in surface albedo. The nonlocal effects are largely consistent across surface temperature, 2m-air temperature, and the temperature of the lowest atmospheric layer. However, the local effects strongly differ across the three considered variables. The local effects are strong for surface temperature, but substantially weaker in the 2m-air temperature and largely absent in the lowest atmospheric layer. We conclude that studies focusing on the deforestation effects on surface temperature should not be compared to studies focusing on the effects on air temperature. While the local effects on surface temperature are useful for model evaluation, they might be less relevant for local adaptation and mitigation than previously thought because they might largely be absent in the atmosphere.

Aerosol Impacts on California Winter Clouds and Precipitation during CalWater 2011: Local Pollution versus Long-Range Transported Dust

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Jiwen; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; DeMott, Paul J.

2014-01-03

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations aremore » carried out for two cloud cases with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on February 16 (FEB16) and March 02 (MAR02) from the CalWater 2011 field campaign. In both cases, observations show the presence of dust and biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust and biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada Mountains for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a ~40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology including the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet, and cloud dynamics. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental conditions for assessing aerosol effects on cold season precipitation in California.« less

Continental hydrosystem modelling: the concept of nested stream-aquifer interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flipo, N.; Mouhri, A.; Labarthe, B.; Biancamaria, S.; Rivière, A.; Weill, P.

2014-08-01

Coupled hydrological-hydrogeological models, emphasising the importance of the stream-aquifer interface, are more and more used in hydrological sciences for pluri-disciplinary studies aiming at investigating environmental issues. Based on an extensive literature review, stream-aquifer interfaces are described at five different scales: local [10 cm-~10 m], intermediate [~10 m-~1 km], watershed [10 km2-~1000 km2], regional [10 000 km2-~1 M km2] and continental scales [>10 M km2]. This led us to develop the concept of nested stream-aquifer interfaces, which extends the well-known vision of nested groundwater pathways towards the surface, where the mixing of low frequency processes and high frequency processes coupled with the complexity of geomorphological features and heterogeneities creates hydrological spiralling. This conceptual framework allows the identification of a hierarchical order of the multi-scale control factors of stream-aquifer hydrological exchanges, from the larger scale to the finer scale. The hyporheic corridor, which couples the river to its 3-D hyporheic zone, is then identified as the key component for scaling hydrological processes occurring at the interface. The identification of the hyporheic corridor as the support of the hydrological processes scaling is an important step for the development of regional studies, which is one of the main concerns for water practitioners and resources managers. In a second part, the modelling of the stream-aquifer interface at various scales is investigated with the help of the conductance model. Although the usage of the temperature as a tracer of the flow is a robust method for the assessment of stream-aquifer exchanges at the local scale, there is a crucial need to develop innovative methodologies for assessing stream-aquifer exchanges at the regional scale. After formulating the conductance model at the regional and intermediate scales, we address this challenging issue with the development of an iterative modelling methodology, which ensures the consistency of stream-aquifer exchanges between the intermediate and regional scales. Finally, practical recommendations are provided for the study of the interface using the innovative methodology MIM (Measurements-Interpolation-Modelling), which is graphically developed, scaling in space the three pools of methods needed to fully understand stream-aquifer interfaces at various scales. In the MIM space, stream-aquifer interfaces that can be studied by a given approach are localised. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated with two examples. The first one proposes an upscaling framework, structured around river reaches of ~10-100 m, from the local to the watershed scale. The second example highlights the usefulness of space borne data to improve the assessment of stream-aquifer exchanges at the regional and continental scales. We conclude that further developments in modelling and field measurements have to be undertaken at the regional scale to enable a proper modelling of stream-aquifer exchanges from the local to the continental scale.

Influence of geographical scale on the detection of density dependence in the host-parasite system, Arvicola terrestris and Taenia taeniaeformis.

PubMed

Deter, J; Berthier, K; Chaval, Y; Cosson, J F; Morand, S; Charbonnel, N

2006-04-01

Infection by the cestode Taenia taeniaeformis was investigated within numerous cyclic populations of the fossorial water vole Arvicola terrestris sampled during 4 years in Franche-Comté (France). The relative influence of different rodent demographic parameters on the presence of this cestode was assessed by considering (1) the demographic phase of the cycle; (2) density at the local geographical scale (<0.1 km2); (3) mean density at a larger scale (>10 km2). The local scale corresponded to the rodent population (intermediate host), while the large scale corresponded to the definitive host population (wild and feral cats). General linear models based on analyses of 1804 voles revealed the importance of local density but also of year, rodent age, season and interactions between year and season and between age and season. Prevalence was significantly higher in low vole densities than during local outbreaks. By contrast, the large geographical scale density and the demographic phase had less influence on infection by the cestode. The potential impacts of the cestode on the fitness of the host were assessed and infection had no effect on the host body mass, litter size or sexual activity of voles.

Evaluation of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for Roadway Drainage Systems.

PubMed

Byrne, Diana M; Grabowski, Marta K; Benitez, Amy C B; Schmidt, Arthur R; Guest, Jeremy S

2017-08-15

Roadway drainage design has traditionally focused on cost-effectively managing water quantity; however, runoff carries pollutants, posing risks to the local environment and public health. Additionally, construction and maintenance incur costs and contribute to global environmental impacts. While life cycle assessment (LCA) can potentially capture local and global environmental impacts of roadway drainage and other stormwater systems, LCA methodology must be evaluated because stormwater systems differ from wastewater and drinking water systems to which LCA is more frequently applied. To this end, this research developed a comprehensive model linking roadway drainage design parameters to LCA and life cycle costing (LCC) under uncertainty. This framework was applied to 10 highway drainage projects to evaluate LCA methodological choices by characterizing environmental and economic impacts of drainage projects and individual components (basin, bioswale, culvert, grass swale, storm sewer, and pipe underdrain). The relative impacts of drainage components varied based on functional unit choice. LCA inventory cutoff criteria evaluation showed the potential for cost-based criteria, which performed better than mass-based criteria. Finally, the local aquatic benefits of grass swales and bioswales offset global environmental impacts for four impact categories, highlighting the need to explicitly consider local impacts (i.e., direct emissions) when evaluating drainage technologies.

Influence of yield surface curvature on the macroscopic yielding and ductile failure of isotropic porous plastic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dæhli, Lars Edvard Bryhni; Morin, David; Børvik, Tore; Hopperstad, Odd Sture

2017-10-01

Numerical unit cell models of an approximative representative volume element for a porous ductile solid are utilized to investigate differences in the mechanical response between a quadratic and a non-quadratic matrix yield surface. A Hershey equivalent stress measure with two distinct values of the yield surface exponent is employed as the matrix description. Results from the unit cell calculations are further used to calibrate a heuristic extension of the Gurson model which incorporates effects of the third deviatoric stress invariant. An assessment of the porous plasticity model reveals its ability to describe the unit cell response to some extent, however underestimating the effect of the Lode parameter for the lower triaxiality ratios imposed in this study when compared to unit cell simulations. Ductile failure predictions by means of finite element simulations using a unit cell model that resembles an imperfection band are then conducted to examine how the non-quadratic matrix yield surface influences the failure strain as compared to the quadratic matrix yield surface. Further, strain localization predictions based on bifurcation analyses and imperfection band analyses are undertaken using the calibrated porous plasticity model. These simulations are then compared to the unit cell calculations in order to elucidate the differences between the various modelling strategies. The current study reveals that strain localization analyses using an imperfection band model and a spatially discretized unit cell are in reasonable agreement, while the bifurcation analyses predict higher strain levels at localization. Imperfection band analyses are finally used to calculate failure loci for the quadratic and the non-quadratic matrix yield surface under a wide range of loading conditions. The underlying matrix yield surface is demonstrated to have a pronounced influence on the onset of strain localization.

Effects of cevimeline on the immunolocalization of aquaporin-5 and the ultrastructure of salivary glands in Sjögren's syndrome model mice.

PubMed

Nishimura, Hidehiko; Yakeishi, Akira; Saga, Tsuyoshi; Yamaki, Koh-Ichi

2009-01-01

Sjögren's syndrome (SS) is an autoimmune disorder whose main symptoms include xerostomia and dry eyes. It has been demonstrated that abnormal expression of aquaporin (AQP)-5 in the parotid and submandibular glands in SS model mice was corrected by cevimeline. In the present study, we orally administered cevimeline hydrochloride (cevimeline) to female MRL/l mice, which are widely used as a model for SS, to immunohistochemically investigate the localization of AQP-5 in the salivary glands. We also assessed the ultrastructure of acinar cells in the submandibular glands. AQP-5 was expressed in the apical and lateral cell membranes of acinar cells in the parotid and submandibular glands of normal mice, but not in the sublingual glands. In contrast, AQP-5 was expressed not only in the cell membranes in the apical domains but also in the cytoplasm in the SS model mice, indicating that the localization of AQP-5 was disordered in the SS model mice. After administration of cevimeline, AQP-5 was predominantly localized in the cellular apical domains of the acinar cells. Electron microscopy revealed that administration of cevimeline to the SS model mice and normal mice markedly reduced the number of secretory granules, increased the area of the rough endoplasmic reticulum, and expanded the intercellular gaps in the cells of the submandibular acini. Condensed vacuoles were also observed in the Golgi apparatuses, indicating that secondary enhancement of secretion and production of saliva had occurred. Consequently, the results of the present study demonstrate that the administration of cevimeline to the SS model mice increased salivary secretion in the submandibular glands. Furthermore, cevimeline transiently normalized the localization of AQP-5 expression in the parotid and submandibular glands.

The Local Food Environment and Fruit and Vegetable Intake: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach in the ORiEL Study.

PubMed

Clary, Christelle; Lewis, Daniel J; Flint, Ellen; Smith, Neil R; Kestens, Yan; Cummins, Steven

2016-12-01

Studies that explore associations between the local food environment and diet routinely use global regression models, which assume that relationships are invariant across space, yet such stationarity assumptions have been little tested. We used global and geographically weighted regression models to explore associations between the residential food environment and fruit and vegetable intake. Analyses were performed in 4 boroughs of London, United Kingdom, using data collected between April 2012 and July 2012 from 969 adults in the Olympic Regeneration in East London Study. Exposures were assessed both as absolute densities of healthy and unhealthy outlets, taken separately, and as a relative measure (proportion of total outlets classified as healthy). Overall, local models performed better than global models (lower Akaike information criterion). Locally estimated coefficients varied across space, regardless of the type of exposure measure, although changes of sign were observed only when absolute measures were used. Despite findings from global models showing significant associations between the relative measure and fruit and vegetable intake (β = 0.022; P < 0.01) only, geographically weighted regression models using absolute measures outperformed models using relative measures. This study suggests that greater attention should be given to nonstationary relationships between the food environment and diet. It further challenges the idea that a single measure of exposure, whether relative or absolute, can reflect the many ways the food environment may shape health behaviors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dietary Assessment on a Mobile Phone Using Image Processing and Pattern Recognition Techniques: Algorithm Design and System Prototyping.

PubMed

Probst, Yasmine; Nguyen, Duc Thanh; Tran, Minh Khoi; Li, Wanqing

2015-07-27

Dietary assessment, while traditionally based on pen-and-paper, is rapidly moving towards automatic approaches. This study describes an Australian automatic food record method and its prototype for dietary assessment via the use of a mobile phone and techniques of image processing and pattern recognition. Common visual features including scale invariant feature transformation (SIFT), local binary patterns (LBP), and colour are used for describing food images. The popular bag-of-words (BoW) model is employed for recognizing the images taken by a mobile phone for dietary assessment. Technical details are provided together with discussions on the issues and future work.

Assessment of Template-Based Modeling of Protein Structure in CASP11

PubMed Central

Modi, Vivek; Xu, Qifang; Adhikari, Sam; Dunbrack, Roland L.

2016-01-01

We present the assessment of predictions submitted in the template-based modeling (TBM) category of CASP11 (Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction). Model quality was judged on the basis of global and local measures of accuracy on all atoms including side chains. The top groups on 39 human-server targets based on model 1 predictions were LEER, Zhang, LEE, MULTICOM, and Zhang-Server. The top groups on 81 targets by server groups based on model 1 predictions were Zhang-Server, nns, BAKER-ROSETTASERVER, QUARK, and myprotein-me. In CASP11, the best models for most targets were equal to or better than the best template available in the Protein Data Bank, even for targets with poor templates. The overall performance in CASP11 is similar to the performance of predictors in CASP10 with slightly better performance on the hardest targets. For most targets, assessment measures exhibited bimodal probability density distributions. Multi-dimensional scaling of an RMSD matrix for each target typically revealed a single cluster with models similar to the target structure, with a mode in the GDT-TS density between 40 and 90, and a wide distribution of models highly divergent from each other and from the experimental structure, with density mode at a GDT-TS value of ~20. The models in this peak in the density were either compact models with entirely the wrong fold, or highly non-compact models. The results argue for a density-driven approach in future CASP TBM assessments that accounts for the bimodal nature of these distributions instead of Z-scores, which assume a unimodal, Gaussian distribution. PMID:27081927

Assessment of existing local houses condition as analysis tools for shore housing improvement program in Weriagar district, Bintuni Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firmansyah, F.; Fernando, A.; Allo, I. P. R.

2018-01-01

The housing assessment is a part of the pre-feasibility study inThe Shore Housing Improvement Program in Weriagar District, West Papua. The housing assessment was conducted to identify the physical condition of existing houses. The parameters of assessment formulated from local references, practices and also national building regulation that covers each building system components, such as building structure/frame, building floor, building cover, and building roof. This study aims to explains lessons from local practices and references, used as the formula to generate assessment parameter, elaborate with Indonesia building regulation. The result of housing assessment were used as a basis to develop the house improvement strategy, the design alternative for housing improvement and further planning recommendations. The local knowledges involved in housing improvement program expected that the local-based approach could respect to the local build culture, respect the local environment, and the most important can offer best suitable solutions for functional utility and livability.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Source localization of rhythmic ictal EEG activity: a study of diagnostic accuracy following STARD criteria.

PubMed

Beniczky, Sándor; Lantz, Göran; Rosenzweig, Ivana; Åkeson, Per; Pedersen, Birthe; Pinborg, Lars H; Ziebell, Morten; Jespersen, Bo; Fuglsang-Frederiksen, Anders

2013-10-01

Although precise identification of the seizure-onset zone is an essential element of presurgical evaluation, source localization of ictal electroencephalography (EEG) signals has received little attention. The aim of our study was to estimate the accuracy of source localization of rhythmic ictal EEG activity using a distributed source model. Source localization of rhythmic ictal scalp EEG activity was performed in 42 consecutive cases fulfilling inclusion criteria. The study was designed according to recommendations for studies on diagnostic accuracy (STARD). The initial ictal EEG signals were selected using a standardized method, based on frequency analysis and voltage distribution of the ictal activity. A distributed source model-local autoregressive average (LAURA)-was used for the source localization. Sensitivity, specificity, and measurement of agreement (kappa) were determined based on the reference standard-the consensus conclusion of the multidisciplinary epilepsy surgery team. Predictive values were calculated from the surgical outcome of the operated patients. To estimate the clinical value of the ictal source analysis, we compared the likelihood ratios of concordant and discordant results. Source localization was performed blinded to the clinical data, and before the surgical decision. Reference standard was available for 33 patients. The ictal source localization had a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 76%. The mean measurement of agreement (kappa) was 0.61, corresponding to substantial agreement (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.84). Twenty patients underwent resective surgery. The positive predictive value (PPV) for seizure freedom was 92% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 43%. The likelihood ratio was nine times higher for the concordant results, as compared with the discordant ones. Source localization of rhythmic ictal activity using a distributed source model (LAURA) for the ictal EEG signals selected with a standardized method is feasible in clinical practice and has a good diagnostic accuracy. Our findings encourage clinical neurophysiologists assessing ictal EEGs to include this method in their armamentarium. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2013 International League Against Epilepsy.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Xin -Yu; Bhagatwala, Ankit; Chen, Jacqueline H.

In this study, the modeling of mixing by molecular diffusion is a central aspect for transported probability density function (tPDF) methods. In this paper, the newly-proposed shadow position mixing model (SPMM) is examined, using a DNS database for a temporally evolving di-methyl ether slot jet flame. Two methods that invoke different levels of approximation are proposed to extract the shadow displacement (equivalent to shadow position) from the DNS database. An approach for a priori analysis of the mixing-model performance is developed. The shadow displacement is highly correlated with both mixture fraction and velocity, and the peak correlation coefficient of themore » shadow displacement and mixture fraction is higher than that of the shadow displacement and velocity. This suggests that the composition-space localness is reasonably well enforced by the model, with appropriate choices of model constants. The conditional diffusion of mixture fraction and major species from DNS and from SPMM are then compared, using mixing rates that are derived by matching the mixture fraction scalar dissipation rates. Good qualitative agreement is found, for the prediction of the locations of zero and maximum/minimum conditional diffusion locations for mixture fraction and individual species. Similar comparisons are performed for DNS and the IECM (interaction by exchange with the conditional mean) model. The agreement between SPMM and DNS is better than that between IECM and DNS, in terms of conditional diffusion iso-contour similarities and global normalized residual levels. It is found that a suitable value for the model constant c that controls the mixing frequency can be derived using the local normalized scalar variance, and that the model constant a controls the localness of the model. A higher-Reynolds-number test case is anticipated to be more appropriate to evaluate the mixing models, and stand-alone transported PDF simulations are required to more fully enforce localness and to assess model performance.« less

Fatigue assessment of an existing steel bridge by finite element modelling and field measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwad, J.; Alencar, G.; Correia, J.; Jesus, A.; Calçada, R.; Kripakaran, P.

2017-05-01

The evaluation of fatigue life of structural details in metallic bridges is a major challenge for bridge engineers. A reliable and cost-effective approach is essential to ensure appropriate maintenance and management of these structures. Typically, local stresses predicted by a finite element model of the bridge are employed to assess the fatigue life of fatigue-prone details. This paper illustrates an approach for fatigue assessment based on measured data for a connection in an old bascule steel bridge located in Exeter (UK). A finite element model is first developed from the design information. The finite element model of the bridge is calibrated using measured responses from an ambient vibration test. The stress time histories are calculated through dynamic analysis of the updated finite element model. Stress cycles are computed through the rainflow counting algorithm, and the fatigue prone details are evaluated using the standard SN curves approach and the Miner’s rule. Results show that the proposed approach can estimate the fatigue damage of a fatigue prone detail in a structure using measured strain data.

Community Near-Port Modeling System (C-PORT): Briefing for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

What C-PORT is: Screening level tool for assessing port activities and exploring the range of potential impacts that changes to port operations might have on local air quality; Analysis of decision alternatives through mapping of the likely pattern of potential pollutant dispersion and an estimated change in pollutant concentrations for user-designated scenarios; Designed primarily to evaluate the local air quality impacts of proposed port expansion or modernization, as well as to identify options for mitigating any impacts; Currently includes data from 21 US seaports and features a map-based interface similar to the widely used Google Earth; Still under development, C-PORT is designed as an easy-to-use computer modeling tool for users, such as state air quality managers and planners. This is part of our product outreach prior to model public release and to solicit for additional beta testers.

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. II - Dynamical analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, T. J.

1984-01-01

The heating associated with equatorial, subtropical, and midlatitude ocean temperature anamolies in the Held-Suarez climate model is analyzed. The local and downstream response to the anomalies is analyzed, first by examining the seasonal variation in heating associated with each ocean temperature anomaly, and then by combining knowledge of the heating with linear dynamical theory in order to develop a more comprehensive explanation of the seasonal variation in local and downstream atmospheric response to each anomaly. The extent to which the linear theory of propagating waves can assist the interpretation of the remote cross-latitudinal response of the model to the ocean temperature anomalies is considered. Alternative hypotheses that attempt to avoid the contradictions inherent in a strict application of linear theory are investigated, and the impact of sampling errors on the assessment of statistical significance is also examined.

Establishment of an evaluation model for human milk fat substitutes.

PubMed

Wang, Yong-Hua; Mai, Qing-Yun; Qin, Xiao-Li; Yang, Bo; Wang, Zi-Lian; Chen, Hai-Tian

2010-01-13

Fatty acid composition and distribution of human milk fat (HMF), from mothers over different lactating periods in Guangzhou, China, were analyzed. The universal characteristics were consistent with previously reported results although the fatty acid content was within a different range and dependent on the local population (low saturated fatty acid and high oleic acid for Guangdong mothers' milk fat). Based on the composition of the total and sn-2 fatty acids of mature milk fat, an efficient evaluation model was innovatively established by adopting the "deducting score" principle. The model showed good agreement between the scores and the degree of similarity by assessing 15 samples from different sources including four samples of HMF, eight samples of human milk fat substitutes (HMFSs) and infant formulas, and three samples of fats and oils. This study would allow for the devolvement of individual human milk fat substitutes with different and specific fatty acid compositions for local infants.

Application of global sensitivity analysis methods to Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquin, A. P.; Shamseldin, A. Y.

2009-04-01

This study analyses the sensitivity of the parameters of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models previously developed by the authors. These models can be classified in two types, where the first type is intended to account for the effect of changes in catchment wetness and the second type incorporates seasonality as a source of non-linearity in the rainfall-runoff relationship. The sensitivity analysis is performed using two global sensitivity analysis methods, namely Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA) and Sobol's Variance Decomposition (SVD). In general, the RSA method has the disadvantage of not being able to detect sensitivities arising from parameter interactions. By contrast, the SVD method is suitable for analysing models where the model response surface is expected to be affected by interactions at a local scale and/or local optima, such as the case of the rainfall-runoff fuzzy models analysed in this study. The data of six catchments from different geographical locations and sizes are used in the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the model parameters is analysed in terms of two measures of goodness of fit, assessing the model performance from different points of view. These measures are the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion and the index of volumetric fit. The results of the study show that the sensitivity of the model parameters depends on both the type of non-linear effects (i.e. changes in catchment wetness or seasonality) that dominates the catchment's rainfall-runoff relationship and the measure used to assess the model performance. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by FONDECYT, Research Grant 11070130. We would also like to express our gratitude to Prof. Kieran M. O'Connor from the National University of Ireland, Galway, for providing the data used in this study.

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi, S.; Villa, F.; Mojtahed, V.; Hegetschweiler, K. T.; Giupponi, C.

2015-10-01

This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of: (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury; (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder; (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the benefits of improving an existing Early Warning System, taking into account the reliability, lead-time and scope (i.e. coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event: about 75 % of fatalities, 25 % of injuries and 18 % of post-traumatic stress disorders could be avoided.

Meeting the International Health Regulations (2005) surveillance core capacity requirements at the subnational level in Europe: the added value of syndromic surveillance.

PubMed

Ziemann, Alexandra; Rosenkötter, Nicole; Riesgo, Luis Garcia-Castrillo; Fischer, Matthias; Krämer, Alexander; Lippert, Freddy K; Vergeiner, Gernot; Brand, Helmut; Krafft, Thomas

2015-02-07

The revised World Health Organization's International Health Regulations (2005) request a timely and all-hazard approach towards surveillance, especially at the subnational level. We discuss three questions of syndromic surveillance application in the European context for assessing public health emergencies of international concern: (i) can syndromic surveillance support countries, especially the subnational level, to meet the International Health Regulations (2005) core surveillance capacity requirements, (ii) are European syndromic surveillance systems comparable to enable cross-border surveillance, and (iii) at which administrative level should syndromic surveillance best be applied? Despite the ongoing criticism on the usefulness of syndromic surveillance which is related to its clinically nonspecific output, we demonstrate that it was a suitable supplement for timely assessment of the impact of three different public health emergencies affecting Europe. Subnational syndromic surveillance analysis in some cases proved to be of advantage for detecting an event earlier compared to national level analysis. However, in many cases, syndromic surveillance did not detect local events with only a small number of cases. The European Commission envisions comparability of surveillance output to enable cross-border surveillance. Evaluated against European infectious disease case definitions, syndromic surveillance can contribute to identify cases that might fulfil the clinical case definition but the approach is too unspecific to comply to complete clinical definitions. Syndromic surveillance results still seem feasible for comparable cross-border surveillance as similarly defined syndromes are analysed. We suggest a new model of implementing syndromic surveillance at the subnational level. In this model, syndromic surveillance systems are fine-tuned to their local context and integrated into the existing subnational surveillance and reporting structure. By enhancing population coverage, events covering several jurisdictions can be identified at higher levels. However, the setup of decentralised and locally adjusted syndromic surveillance systems is more complex compared to the setup of one national or local system. We conclude that syndromic surveillance if implemented with large population coverage at the subnational level can help detect and assess the local and regional effect of different types of public health emergencies in a timely manner as required by the International Health Regulations (2005).

Nonthermal model for ultrafast laser-induced plasma generation around a plasmonic nanorod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labouret, Timothée; Palpant, Bruno

2016-12-01

The excitation of plasmonic gold nanoparticles by ultrashort laser pulses can trigger interesting electron-based effects in biological media such as production of reactive oxygen species or cell membrane optoporation. In order to better understand the optical and thermal processes at play, we modeled the interaction of a subpicosecond, near-infrared laser pulse with a gold nanorod in water. A nonthermal model is used and compared to a simple two-temperature thermal approach. For both models, the computation of the transient optical response reveals strong plasmon damping. Electron emission from the metal into the water is also calculated in a specific way for each model. The dynamics of the resulting local plasma in water is assessed by a rate equation model. While both approaches provide similar results for the transient optical properties, the simple thermal one is unable to properly describe electron emission and plasma generation. The latter is shown to mostly originate from electron-electron thermionic emission and photoemission from the metal. Taking into account the transient optical response is mandatory to properly calculate both electron emission and local plasma dynamics in water.

The HTA core model: a novel method for producing and reporting health technology assessments.

PubMed

Lampe, Kristian; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Garrido, Marcial Velasco; Anttila, Heidi; Autti-Rämö, Ilona; Hicks, Nicholas J; Hofmann, Björn; Koivisto, Juha; Kunz, Regina; Kärki, Pia; Malmivaara, Antti; Meiesaar, Kersti; Reiman-Möttönen, Päivi; Norderhaug, Inger; Pasternack, Iris; Ruano-Ravina, Alberto; Räsänen, Pirjo; Saalasti-Koskinen, Ulla; Saarni, Samuli I; Walin, Laura; Kristensen, Finn Børlum

2009-12-01

The aim of this study was to develop and test a generic framework to enable international collaboration for producing and sharing results of health technology assessments (HTAs). Ten international teams constructed the HTA Core Model, dividing information contained in a comprehensive HTA into standardized pieces, the assessment elements. Each element contains a generic issue that is translated into practical research questions while performing an assessment. Elements were described in detail in element cards. Two pilot assessments, designated as Core HTAs were also produced. The Model and Core HTAs were both validated. Guidance on the use of the HTA Core Model was compiled into a Handbook. The HTA Core Model considers health technologies through nine domains. Two applications of the Model were developed, one for medical and surgical interventions and another for diagnostic technologies. Two Core HTAs were produced in parallel with developing the model, providing the first real-life testing of the Model and input for further development. The results of formal validation and public feedback were primarily positive. Development needs were also identified and considered. An online Handbook is available. The HTA Core Model is a novel approach to HTA. It enables effective international production and sharing of HTA results in a structured format. The face validity of the Model was confirmed during the project, but further testing and refining are needed to ensure optimal usefulness and user-friendliness. Core HTAs are intended to serve as a basis for local HTA reports. Core HTAs do not contain recommendations on technology use.

[Impact and state of the art of regional healthcare planning and management guidelines in a local health authority of the Lazio region (Italy)].

PubMed

Priori, Maria Rosaria; Barbato, Angelo

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of health care planning and management guidelines, elaborated by the Lazio regional healthcare authority, on the organizational structure and operational processes of local health authorities and, more specifically, of the Roma C local health authority. The guidelines are made up of three volumes and mainly describe an operational model, rather than being a set of standard references aimed at standardizing the quality of information low systems in local healthcare authorities. The guidelines are essentially a didactic text, and were elaborated by a consulting firm, Engineering Management Consulting, on behalf of the Lazio regional authority. In the first section, the main concepts are defined, while in subsequent sections, detailed models regarding the specific subject matter are described. Although the guidelines represent a useful tool in the process of converting local health authorities of the Lazio region into "business" organizations, so far they have been of use only in the first phase of assessment of different organizational models for healthcare planning and management. There is still a long way ahead towards defining standard procedures and references for describing activities and costs. This is what should hopefully be achieved briefly and which will necessarily require the introduction of a data warehouse and business intelligence software that will allow monitoring of activities and making short term predictions through the use balanced scorecards and data mining.

Relative species richness and community completeness: avian communities and urbanization in the mid-Atlantic states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Hines, J.E.; Flather, C.H.

2000-01-01

The idea that local factors govern local richness has been dominant for years, but recent theoretical and empirical studies have stressed the influence of regional factors on local richness. Fewer species at a site could reflect not only the influence of local factors, but also a smaller regional pool. The possible dependency of local richness on the regional pool should be taken into account when addressing the influence of local factors on local richness. It is possible to account for this potential dependency by comparing relative species richness among sites, rather than species richness per se. We consider estimation of a metric permitting assessment of relative species richness in a typical situation in which not all species are detected during sampling sessions. In this situation, estimates of absolute or relative species richness need to account for variation in species detection probability if they are to be unbiased. We present a method to estimate relative species richness based on capture-recapture models. This approach involves definition of a species list from regional data, and estimation of the number of species in that list that are present at a site-year of interest. We use this approach to address the influence of urbanization on relative richness of avian communities in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. There is a negative relationship between relative richness and landscape variables describing the level of urban development. We believe that this metric should prove very useful for conservation and management purposes because it is based on an estimator of species richness that both accounts for potential variation in species detection probability and allows flexibility in the specification of a 'reference community.' This metric can be used to assess ecological integrity, the richness of the community of interest relative to that of the 'original' community, or to assess change since some previous time in a community.

Energy and resource basis of an Italian coastal resort region integrated using emergy synthesis.

PubMed

Vassallo, Paolo; Paoli, Chiara; Tilley, David R; Fabiano, Mauro

2009-10-01

Sustainable development of coastal zones must balance economic development that encourages human visitation from a larger population with desires that differ from the local residents with the need to maintain opportunities for the local resident society and conserve ecological capital, which may serve as the basis for residents. We present a case study in which the sustainability level of a coastal zone (Riviera del Beigua), located along the Ligurian coast of north-western Italy, was assessed through the lens of systems ecology using emergy synthesis to integrate across economic, social and environmental sub-systems. Our purposes were (1) to quantify the environmental sustainability level of this coastal zone, (2) to evaluate the role of tourism in affecting the economy, society and environment, and (3) to compare emergy synthesis to Butler's Tourism Area Life Cycle model (TALC). Results showed that 81% of the total emergy consumption in the coastal zone was derived from external sources, indicating that this tourist-heavy community was not sustainable. Tourism, as the dominant economic sub-system, consumed 42% of the total emergy budget, while local residents used the remaining 58%. The progressive stages of the TALC model were found to parallel the dynamic changes in the ratio of external emergy inputs to local emergy inputs, suggesting that emergy synthesis could be a useful tool for detecting a tourist region's TALC stage. Use of such a quantitative tool could expedite sustainability assessment to allow administrative managers to understand the complex relationship between a region's economy, environment and resident society so sound policies can be developed to improve overall sustainability.

Teaching Sociology Students to Become Qualitative-Researchers Using an Internship Model of Learner-Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tolich, Martin; Scarth, Bonnie; Shephard, Kerry

2015-01-01

This article examines the experiences of final year undergraduate sociology students enrolled in an internship course where they researched a local community project, mostly in small groups, for a client. A sociology lecturer supervised their projects. Course-related outcomes were assessed using conventional university procedures but a research…

Case Management: Let Us Count the Ways.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, Carol D.

Case management as implemented in programs for the elderly, has focused on interactions between the client and case manager in the areas of assessment, care planning, service plan implementation, and follow-up. Variation in these case management tasks suggests that no single model can be implemented in all local delivery systems. This emphasis on…

An Estimate of the Economic Impacts of Thomas Nelson Community College.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butler, Thomas E.

A study was conducted at Thomas Nelson Community College (TNCC) to assess the college's economic impact on its service area in fiscal year 1979. Models, based on linear cash flow formulas, were used to determine impacts on local businesses, governments, and individuals. Students' expenditures and spending for construction were omitted from the…

ASSESSMENT OF THE WINTER-TIME PERFORMANCE OF DEVELOPMENTAL PARTICULATE MATTER FORECASTS WITH THE ETA-CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

It is desirable for local air quality agencies to accurately forecast tropospheric PM_2.5 concentrations to alert the sensitive population of the onset, severity and duration of unhealthy air, and to encourage the public and industry to reduce emissions-producing activi...

Separating the Air Quality Impact of a Major Highway and Nearby Sources by Nonparametric Trajectory Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Nonparametric Trajectory Analysis (NTA), a receptor-oriented model, was used to assess the impact of local sources of air pollution at monitoring sites located adjacent to highway I-15 in Las Vegas, NV. Measurements of black carbon, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur di...

Conditional Covariance-Based Subtest Selection for DIMTEST

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froelich, Amy G.; Habing, Brian

2008-01-01

DIMTEST is a nonparametric hypothesis-testing procedure designed to test the assumptions of a unidimensional and locally independent item response theory model. Several previous Monte Carlo studies have found that using linear factor analysis to select the assessment subtest for DIMTEST results in a moderate to severe loss of power when the exam…

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability using DRASTIC Model and GIS : A case study of two sub-districts in Banda Aceh city, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machdar, I.; Zulfikar, T.; Rinaldi, W.; Alfiansyah, Y.

2018-03-01

This present study assessed the groundwater vulnerability to protect aquifer in part of Banda Aceh City (the sub-district of Banda Raya and Lueng Bata), Indonesia. The study provides an additional tool for local planner and manager as for managing and protecting groundwater resources. The study area covers 1,164 ha and total population was estimated around 50,000 inhabitants. DRASTIC model in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment was used in this study to generate vulnerability maps. The maps were created by applied seven criteria as standard in DRASTIC approach, i.e. depth to groundwater, recharge, aquifer type, soil properties, topography, impact of the vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity. The vulnerability maps provides five categories of vulnerability, i.e. less, low, medium, high, and very high. It was found that the village areas, labelled with the high groundwater pollution potential, are mainly in the area of Lamlagang and the part of Geuce Kaye Jatoe and Geuce Komplek (Banda Raya sub-district) and the part of Batoh and Suka Damai (Lueng Bata sub-distric) This study prompts that the DRASTIC approach is helpful and efficient instrument for assessing groundwater vulnerability. The generated map can be an effective tool for local administrators in groundwater management as well.

An empirical model of water quality for use in rapid management strategy evaluation in Southeast Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

de la Mare, William; Ellis, Nick; Pascual, Ricardo; Tickell, Sharon

2012-04-01

Simulation models have been widely adopted in fisheries for management strategy evaluation (MSE). However, in catchment management of water quality, MSE is hampered by the complexity of both decision space and the hydrological process models. Empirical models based on monitoring data provide a feasible alternative to process models; they run much faster and, by conditioning on data, they can simulate realistic responses to management actions. Using 10 years of water quality indicators from Queensland, Australia, we built an empirical model suitable for rapid MSE that reproduces the water quality variables' mean and covariance structure, adjusts the expected indicators through local management effects, and propagates effects downstream by capturing inter-site regression relationships. Empirical models enable managers to search the space of possible strategies using rapid assessment. They provide not only realistic responses in water quality indicators but also variability in those indicators, allowing managers to assess strategies in an uncertain world. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An assessment of local risk. [to area associated with commercial operations of aircraft with graphite fiber composite structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pocinki, L. S.

1979-01-01

A status report is presented on the assessment of the risk at Washington National Airport and the surrounding Washington, D.C. area associated with commercial operations of aircraft with graphite fiber composite in their structures. The presentation is outlined as follows: (1) overall strategy; (2) need for individual airport results; (3) airport-metro area model - submodels, method, assumptions and data; and (4) preliminary results for National Airport - D.C. area.

Altered local spontaneous activity in frontal lobe epilepsy: a resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging study.

PubMed

Dong, Li; Li, Hechun; He, Zhongqiong; Jiang, Sisi; Klugah-Brown, Benjamin; Chen, Lin; Wang, Pu; Tan, Song; Luo, Cheng; Yao, Dezhong

2016-11-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the local spatiotemporal consistency of spontaneous brain activity in patients with frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE). Eyes closed resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data were collected from 19 FLE patients and 19 age- and gender-matched healthy controls. A novel measure, named FOur-dimensional (spatiotemporal) Consistency of local neural Activities (FOCA) was used to assess the spatiotemporal consistency of local spontaneous activity (emphasizing both local temporal homogeneity and regional stability of brain activity states). Then, two-sample t test was performed to detect the FOCA differences between two groups. Partial correlations between the FOCA values and durations of epilepsy were further analyzed. Compared with controls, FLE patients demonstrated increased FOCA in distant brain regions including the frontal and parietal cortices, as well as the basal ganglia. The decreased FOCA was located in the temporal cortex, posterior default model regions, and cerebellum. In addition, the FOCA measure was linked to the duration of epilepsy in basal ganglia. Our study suggested that alterations of local spontaneous activity in frontoparietal cortex and basal ganglia was associated with the pathophysiology of FLE; and the abnormality in frontal and default model regions might account for the potential cognitive impairment in FLE. We also presumed that the FOCA measure had potential to provide important insights into understanding epilepsy such as FLE.

Non-invasive terahertz imaging of tissue water content for flap viability assessment

PubMed Central

Bajwa, Neha; Au, Joshua; Jarrahy, Reza; Sung, Shijun; Fishbein, Michael C.; Riopelle, David; Ennis, Daniel B.; Aghaloo, Tara; St. John, Maie A.; Grundfest, Warren S.; Taylor, Zachary D.

2016-01-01

Accurate and early prediction of tissue viability is the most significant determinant of tissue flap survival in reconstructive surgery. Perturbation in tissue water content (TWC) is a generic component of the tissue response to such surgeries, and, therefore, may be an important diagnostic target for assessing the extent of flap viability in vivo. We have previously shown that reflective terahertz (THz) imaging, a non-ionizing technique, can generate spatially resolved maps of TWC in superficial soft tissues, such as cornea and wounds, on the order of minutes. Herein, we report the first in vivo pilot study to investigate the utility of reflective THz TWC imaging for early assessment of skin flap viability. We obtained longitudinal visible and reflective THz imagery comparing 3 bipedicled flaps (i.e. survival model) and 3 fully excised flaps (i.e. failure model) in the dorsal skin of rats over a postoperative period of 7 days. While visual differences between both models manifested 48 hr after surgery, statistically significant (p < 0.05, independent t-test) local differences in TWC contrast were evident in THz flap image sets as early as 24 hr. Excised flaps, histologically confirmed as necrotic, demonstrated a significant, yet localized, reduction in TWC in the flap region compared to non-traumatized skin. In contrast, bipedicled flaps, histologically verified as viable, displayed mostly uniform, unperturbed TWC across the flap tissue. These results indicate the practical potential of THz TWC sensing to accurately predict flap failure 24 hours earlier than clinical examination. PMID:28101431

Modeling Compound Flood Hazards in Coastal Embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, H.; Schubert, J. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Luke, A.; Matthew, R.; Sanders, B. F.

2017-12-01

Coastal cities around the world are built on lowland topography adjacent to coastal embayments and river estuaries, where multiple factors threaten increasing flood hazards (e.g. sea level rise and river flooding). Quantitative risk assessment is required for administration of flood insurance programs and the design of cost-effective flood risk reduction measures. This demands a characterization of extreme water levels such as 100 and 500 year return period events. Furthermore, hydrodynamic flood models are routinely used to characterize localized flood level intensities (i.e., local depth and velocity) based on boundary forcing sampled from extreme value distributions. For example, extreme flood discharges in the U.S. are estimated from measured flood peaks using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution. However, configuring hydrodynamic models for coastal embayments is challenging because of compound extreme flood events: events caused by a combination of extreme sea levels, extreme river discharges, and possibly other factors such as extreme waves and precipitation causing pluvial flooding in urban developments. Here, we present an approach for flood risk assessment that coordinates multivariate extreme analysis with hydrodynamic modeling of coastal embayments. First, we evaluate the significance of correlation structure between terrestrial freshwater inflow and oceanic variables; second, this correlation structure is described using copula functions in unit joint probability domain; and third, we choose a series of compound design scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling based on their occurrence likelihood. The design scenarios include the most likely compound event (with the highest joint probability density), preferred marginal scenario and reproduced time series of ensembles based on Monte Carlo sampling of bivariate hazard domain. The comparison between resulting extreme water dynamics under the compound hazard scenarios explained above provides an insight to the strengths/weaknesses of each approach and helps modelers choose the appropriate scenario that best fit to the needs of their project. The proposed risk assessment approach can help flood hazard modeling practitioners achieve a more reliable estimate of risk, by cautiously reducing the dimensionality of the hazard analysis.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ebola Virus Disease at Sub-National Level during the 2014 West Africa Epidemic: Model Scrutiny and Data Meagreness.

PubMed

Santermans, Eva; Robesyn, Emmanuel; Ganyani, Tapiwa; Sudre, Bertrand; Faes, Christel; Quinten, Chantal; Van Bortel, Wim; Haber, Tom; Kovac, Thomas; Van Reeth, Frank; Testa, Marco; Hens, Niel; Plachouras, Diamantis

2016-01-01

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has infected at least 27,443 individuals and killed 11,207, based on data until 24 June, 2015, released by the World Health Organization (WHO). This outbreak has been characterised by extensive geographic spread across the affected countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and by localized hotspots within these countries. The rapid recognition and quantitative assessment of localised areas of higher transmission can inform the optimal deployment of public health resources. A variety of mathematical models have been used to estimate the evolution of this epidemic, and some have pointed out the importance of the spatial heterogeneity apparent from incidence maps. However, little is known about the district-level transmission. Given that many response decisions are taken at sub-national level, the current study aimed to investigate the spatial heterogeneity by using a different modelling framework, built on publicly available data at district level. Furthermore, we assessed whether this model could quantify the effect of intervention measures and provide predictions at a local level to guide public health action. We used a two-stage modelling approach: a) a flexible spatiotemporal growth model across all affected districts and b) a deterministic SEIR compartmental model per district whenever deemed appropriate. Our estimates show substantial differences in the evolution of the outbreak in the various regions of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, illustrating the importance of monitoring the outbreak at district level. We also provide an estimate of the time-dependent district-specific effective reproduction number, as a quantitative measure to compare transmission between different districts and give input for informed decisions on control measures and resource allocation. Prediction and assessing the impact of control measures proved to be difficult without more accurate data. In conclusion, this study provides us a useful tool at district level for public health, and illustrates the importance of collecting and sharing data.

Evaluating measurement invariance across assessment modes of phone interview and computer self-administered survey for the PROMIS measures in a population-based cohort of localized prostate cancer survivors.

PubMed

Wang, Mian; Chen, Ronald C; Usinger, Deborah S; Reeve, Bryce B

2017-11-01

To evaluate measurement invariance (phone interview vs computer self-administered survey) of 15 PROMIS measures responded by a population-based cohort of localized prostate cancer survivors. Participants were part of the North Carolina Prostate Cancer Comparative Effectiveness and Survivorship Study. Out of the 952 men who took the phone interview at 24 months post-treatment, 401 of them also completed the same survey online using a home computer. Unidimensionality of the PROMIS measures was examined using single-factor confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models. Measurement invariance testing was conducted using longitudinal CFA via a model comparison approach. For strongly or partially strongly invariant measures, changes in the latent factors and factor autocorrelations were also estimated and tested. Six measures (sleep disturbance, sleep-related impairment, diarrhea, illness impact-negative, illness impact-positive, and global satisfaction with sex life) had locally dependent items, and therefore model modifications had to be made on these domains prior to measurement invariance testing. Overall, seven measures achieved strong invariance (all items had equal loadings and thresholds), and four measures achieved partial strong invariance (each measure had one item with unequal loadings and thresholds). Three measures (pain interference, interest in sexual activity, and global satisfaction with sex life) failed to establish configural invariance due to between-mode differences in factor patterns. This study supports the use of phone-based live interviewers in lieu of PC-based assessment (when needed) for many of the PROMIS measures.

Communities of practice as a professional and organizational development strategy in local public health organizations in Quebec, Canada: an evaluation model.

PubMed

Richard, Lucie; Chiocchio, François; Essiembre, Hélène; Tremblay, Marie-Claude; Lamy, Geneviève; Champagne, François; Beaudet, Nicole

2014-02-01

Communities of practice (CoPs) are among the professional development strategies most widely used in such fields as management and education. Though the approach has elicited keen interest, knowledge pertaining to its conceptual underpinnings is still limited, thus hindering proper assessment of CoPs' effects and the processes generating the latter. To address this shortcoming, this paper presents a conceptual model that was developed to evaluate an initiative based on a CoP strategy: Health Promotion Laboratories are a professional development intervention that was implemented in local public health organizations in Montreal (Quebec, Canada). The model is based on latest theories on work-group effectiveness and organizational learning and can be usefully adopted by evaluators who are increasingly called upon to illuminate decision-making about CoPs. Ultimately, validation of this conceptual model will help advance knowledge and practice pertaining to CoPs as well as professional and organizational development strategies in public health. Copyright © 2014 Longwoods Publishing.

A test-bed modeling study for wave resource assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Neary, V. S.; Wang, T.; Gunawan, B.; Dallman, A.

2016-02-01

Hindcasts from phase-averaged wave models are commonly used to estimate standard statistics used in wave energy resource assessments. However, the research community and wave energy converter industry is lacking a well-documented and consistent modeling approach for conducting these resource assessments at different phases of WEC project development, and at different spatial scales, e.g., from small-scale pilot study to large-scale commercial deployment. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate current wave model codes, as well as limitations and knowledge gaps for predicting sea states, in order to establish best wave modeling practices, and to identify future research needs to improve wave prediction for resource assessment. This paper presents the first phase of an on-going modeling study to address these concerns. The modeling study is being conducted at a test-bed site off the Central Oregon Coast using two of the most widely-used third-generation wave models - WaveWatchIII and SWAN. A nested-grid modeling approach, with domain dimension ranging from global to regional scales, was used to provide wave spectral boundary condition to a local scale model domain, which has a spatial dimension around 60km by 60km and a grid resolution of 250m - 300m. Model results simulated by WaveWatchIII and SWAN in a structured-grid framework are compared to NOAA wave buoy data for the six wave parameters, including omnidirectional wave power, significant wave height, energy period, spectral width, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power, and directionality coefficient. Model performance and computational efficiency are evaluated, and the best practices for wave resource assessments are discussed, based on a set of standard error statistics and model run times.

Learning Receptive Fields and Quality Lookups for Blind Quality Assessment of Stereoscopic Images.

PubMed

Shao, Feng; Lin, Weisi; Wang, Shanshan; Jiang, Gangyi; Yu, Mei; Dai, Qionghai

2016-03-01

Blind quality assessment of 3D images encounters more new challenges than its 2D counterparts. In this paper, we propose a blind quality assessment for stereoscopic images by learning the characteristics of receptive fields (RFs) from perspective of dictionary learning, and constructing quality lookups to replace human opinion scores without performance loss. The important feature of the proposed method is that we do not need a large set of samples of distorted stereoscopic images and the corresponding human opinion scores to learn a regression model. To be more specific, in the training phase, we learn local RFs (LRFs) and global RFs (GRFs) from the reference and distorted stereoscopic images, respectively, and construct their corresponding local quality lookups (LQLs) and global quality lookups (GQLs). In the testing phase, blind quality pooling can be easily achieved by searching optimal GRF and LRF indexes from the learnt LQLs and GQLs, and the quality score is obtained by combining the LRF and GRF indexes together. Experimental results on three publicly 3D image quality assessment databases demonstrate that in comparison with the existing methods, the devised algorithm achieves high consistent alignment with subjective assessment.

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Spatial covert attention increases contrast sensitivity across the CSF: support for signal enhancement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carrasco, M.; Penpeci-Talgar, C.; Eckstein, M.

2000-01-01

This study is the first to report the benefits of spatial covert attention on contrast sensitivity in a wide range of spatial frequencies when a target alone was presented in the absence of a local post-mask. We used a peripheral precue (a small circle indicating the target location) to explore the effects of covert spatial attention on contrast sensitivity as assessed by orientation discrimination (Experiments 1-4), detection (Experiments 2 and 3) and localization (Experiment 3) tasks. In all four experiments the target (a Gabor patch ranging in spatial frequency from 0.5 to 10 cpd) was presented alone in one of eight possible locations equidistant from fixation. Contrast sensitivity was consistently higher for peripherally- than for neutrally-cued trials, even though we eliminated variables (distracters, global masks, local masks, and location uncertainty) that are known to contribute to an external noise reduction explanation of attention. When observers were presented with vertical and horizontal Gabor patches an external noise reduction signal detection model accounted for the cueing benefit in a discrimination task (Experiment 1). However, such a model could not account for this benefit when location uncertainty was reduced, either by: (a) Increasing overall performance level (Experiment 2); (b) increasing stimulus contrast to enable fine discriminations of slightly tilted suprathreshold stimuli (Experiment 3); and (c) presenting a local post-mask (Experiment 4). Given that attentional benefits occurred under conditions that exclude all variables predicted by the external noise reduction model, these results support the signal enhancement model of attention.

Intelligent simulation of aquatic environment economic policy coupled ABM and SD models.

PubMed

Wang, Huihui; Zhang, Jiarui; Zeng, Weihua

2018-03-15

Rapid urbanization and population growth have resulted in serious water shortage and pollution of the aquatic environment, which are important reasons for the complex increase in environmental deterioration in the region. This study examines the environmental consequences and economic impacts of water resource shortages under variant economic policies; however, this requires complex models that jointly consider variant agents and sectors within a systems perspective. Thus, we propose a complex system model that couples multi-agent based models (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) models to simulate the impact of alternative economic policies on water use and pricing. Moreover, this model took the constraint of the local water resources carrying capacity into consideration. Results show that to achieve the 13th Five Year Plan targets in Dianchi, water prices for local residents and industries should rise to 3.23 and 4.99 CNY/m 3 , respectively. The corresponding sewage treatment fees for residents and industries should rise to 1.50 and 2.25 CNY/m 3 , respectively, assuming comprehensive adjustment of industrial structure and policy. At the same time, the local government should exercise fine-scale economic policy combined with emission fees assessed for those exceeding a standard, and collect fines imposed as punishment for enterprises that exceed emission standards. When fines reach 500,000 CNY, the total number of enterprises that exceed emission standards in the basin can be controlled within 1%. Moreover, it is suggested that the volume of water diversion in Dianchi should be appropriately reduced to 3.06×10 8 m 3 . The reduced expense of water diversion should provide funds to use for the construction of recycled water facilities. Then the local rise in the rate of use of recycled water should reach 33%, and 1.4 CNY/m 3 for the price of recycled water could be provided to ensure the sustainable utilization of local water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the effects of horizontal grid resolution on long ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental United State are performed over the 2001 to 2010 time period at two different horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. Both simulations used the same emission inventory and model configurations. Model results are compared both in space and time to assess the potential weaknesses and strengths of using coarse resolution in long-term air quality applications. The results show that the 36 km and 12 km simulations are comparable in terms of trends analysis for both pollutant concentrations and radiation variables. The advantage of using the coarser 36 km resolution is a significant reduction of computational cost, time and storage requirement which are key considerations when performing multiple years of simulations for trend analysis. However, if such simulations are to be used for local air quality analysis, finer horizontal resolution may be beneficial since it can provide information on local gradients. In particular, divergences between the two simulations are noticeable in urban, complex terrain and coastal regions. The National Exposure Research Laboratory’s Atmospheric Modeling Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA’s mission to protect human health and the environment.

Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan-Karakoram region using different methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, H.; Machguth, H.; Huss, M.; Huggel, C.; Bajracharya, S.; Bolch, T.; Kulkarni, A.; Linsbauer, A.; Salzmann, N.; Stoffel, M.

2014-12-01

Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region. In this study, different existing methodologies are used to estimate the ice reserves: three area-volume relations, one slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a recent, detailed, and complete glacier inventory of the HK region, spanning over the period 2000-2010 and revealing an ice coverage of 40 775 km2. An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the observed glacier area and important model parameters on the resulting total ice volume. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local ice-thickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955 to 4737 km3, depending on the approach. This range is lower than most previous estimates. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses. However, total volume estimates from area-related relations are larger than those from other approaches. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation.

Local seismic hazard assessment in explosive volcanic settings by 3D numerical analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razzano, Roberto; Pagliaroli, Alessandro; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Gaudiosi, Iolanda; Avalle, Alessandra; Giallini, Silvia; Marcini, Marco; Polpetta, Federica; Simionato, Maurizio; Sirianni, Pietro; Sottili, Gianluca; Vignaroli, Gianluca; Bellanova, Jessica; Calamita, Giuseppe; Perrone, Angela; Piscitelli, Sabatino

2017-04-01

This work deals with the assessment of local seismic response in the explosive volcanic settings by reconstructing the subsoil model of the Stracciacappa maar (Sabatini Volcanic District, central Italy), whose pyroclastic succession records eruptive phases ended about 0.09 Ma ago. Heterogeneous characteristics of the Stracciacappa maar (stratification, structural setting, lithotypes, and thickness variation of depositional units) make it an ideal case history for understanding mechanisms and processes leading to modifications of amplitude-frequency-duration of seismic waves generated at earthquake sources and propagating through volcanic settings. New geological map and cross sections, constrained with recently acquired geotechnical and geophysical data, illustrate the complex geometric relationships among different depositional units forming the maar. A composite interfingering between internal lacustrine sediments and epiclastic debris, sourced from the rim, fills the crater floor; a 45 meters thick continuous coring borehole was drilled in the maar with sampling of undisturbed samples. Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys and 2D passive seismic arrays were also carried out for constraining the geological model and the velocity profile of the S-waves, respectively. Single station noise measurements were collected in order to define natural amplification frequencies. Finally, the nonlinear cyclic soil behaviour was investigated through simple shear tests on the undisturbed samples. The collected dataset was used to define the subsoil model for 3D finite difference site response numerical analyses by using FLAC 3D software (ITASCA). Moreover, 1D and 2D numerical analyses were carried out for comparison purposes. Two different scenarios were selected as input motions: a moderate magnitude (volcanic event) and a high magnitude (tectonic event). Both earthquake scenarios revealed significant ground motion amplification (up to 15 in terms of spectral acceleration at about 1 s) essentially related to 2D/3D phenomena associated to sharp lateral variations of mechanical properties within the Stracciacappa maar. Our results are relevant to face the assessment of local seismic response in similar volcanic settings in highly urbanised environments elsewhere.

Local indicators of climate change: The potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research

PubMed Central

Reyes-García, Victoria; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Guèze, Maximilien; Garcés, Ariadna; Mallo, Miguel; Vila-Gómez, Margarita; Vilaseca, Marina

2016-01-01

Local knowledge has been proposed as a place-based tool to ground-truth climate models and to narrow their geographic sensitivity. To assess the potential role of local knowledge in our quest to understand better climate change and its impacts, we first need to critically review the strengths and weaknesses of local knowledge of climate change and the potential complementarity with scientific knowledge. With this aim, we conducted a systematic, quantitative meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed documents reporting local indicators of climate change (including both local observations of climate change and observed impacts on the biophysical and the social systems). Overall, primary data on the topic are not abundant, the methodological development is incipient, and the geographical extent is unbalanced. On the 98 case studies documented, we recorded the mention of 746 local indicators of climate change, mostly corresponding to local observations of climate change (40%), but also to observed impacts on the physical (23%), the biological (19%), and the socioeconomic (18%) systems. Our results suggest that, even if local observations of climate change are the most frequently reported type of change, the rich and fine-grained knowledge in relation to impacts on biophysical systems could provide more original contributions to our understanding of climate change at local scale. PMID:27642368

TEMPy: a Python library for assessment of three-dimensional electron microscopy density fits.

PubMed

Farabella, Irene; Vasishtan, Daven; Joseph, Agnel Praveen; Pandurangan, Arun Prasad; Sahota, Harpal; Topf, Maya

2015-08-01

Three-dimensional electron microscopy is currently one of the most promising techniques used to study macromolecular assemblies. Rigid and flexible fitting of atomic models into density maps is often essential to gain further insights into the assemblies they represent. Currently, tools that facilitate the assessment of fitted atomic models and maps are needed. TEMPy (template and electron microscopy comparison using Python) is a toolkit designed for this purpose. The library includes a set of methods to assess density fits in intermediate-to-low resolution maps, both globally and locally. It also provides procedures for single-fit assessment, ensemble generation of fits, clustering, and multiple and consensus scoring, as well as plots and output files for visualization purposes to help the user in analysing rigid and flexible fits. The modular nature of TEMPy helps the integration of scoring and assessment of fits into large pipelines, making it a tool suitable for both novice and expert structural biologists.

Bladder Cancer Treatment Response Assessment in CT using Radiomics with Deep-Learning.

PubMed

Cha, Kenny H; Hadjiiski, Lubomir; Chan, Heang-Ping; Weizer, Alon Z; Alva, Ajjai; Cohan, Richard H; Caoili, Elaine M; Paramagul, Chintana; Samala, Ravi K

2017-08-18

Cross-sectional X-ray imaging has become the standard for staging most solid organ malignancies. However, for some malignancies such as urinary bladder cancer, the ability to accurately assess local extent of the disease and understand response to systemic chemotherapy is limited with current imaging approaches. In this study, we explored the feasibility that radiomics-based predictive models using pre- and post-treatment computed tomography (CT) images might be able to distinguish between bladder cancers with and without complete chemotherapy responses. We assessed three unique radiomics-based predictive models, each of which employed different fundamental design principles ranging from a pattern recognition method via deep-learning convolution neural network (DL-CNN), to a more deterministic radiomics feature-based approach and then a bridging method between the two, utilizing a system which extracts radiomics features from the image patterns. Our study indicates that the computerized assessment using radiomics information from the pre- and post-treatment CT of bladder cancer patients has the potential to assist in assessment of treatment response.

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge in a Japanese Headwater Area by Intensive Collaboration of Field Survey and Modelling Work

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, S.; Kondo, H.; Tawara, Y.; Yamada, T.; Mori, K.; Yoshida, A.; Tada, K.; Tsujimura, M.; Tokunaga, T.

2017-12-01

It is important to understand groundwater systems, including their recharge, flow, storage, discharge, and withdrawal, so that we can use groundwater resources efficiently and sustainably. To examine groundwater recharge, several methods have been discussed based on water balance estimation, in situ experiments, and hydrological tracers. However, few studies have developed a concrete framework for quantifying groundwater recharge rates in an undefined area. In this study, we established a robust method to quantitatively determine water cycles and estimate the groundwater recharge rate by combining the advantages of field surveys and model simulations. We replicated in situ hydrogeological observations and three-dimensional modeling in a mountainous basin area in Japan. We adopted a general-purpose terrestrial fluid-flow simulator (GETFLOWS) to develop a geological model and simulate the local water cycle. Local data relating to topology, geology, vegetation, land use, climate, and water use were collected from the existing literature and observations to assess the spatiotemporal variations of the water balance from 2011 to 2013. The characteristic structures of geology and soils, as found through field surveys, were parameterized for incorporation into the model. The simulated results were validated using observed groundwater levels and resulted in a Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient of 0.92. The results suggested that local groundwater flows across the watershed boundary and that the groundwater recharge rate, defined as the flux of water reaching the local unconfined groundwater table, has values similar to the level estimated in the `the lower soil layers on a long-term basis. This innovative method enables us to quantify the groundwater recharge rate and its spatiotemporal variability with high accuracy, which contributes to establishing a foundation for sustainable groundwater management.

Contribution of computational model for assessment of heart tissue local stress caused by suture in LVAD implantation.

PubMed

Chalon, A; Favre, J; Piotrowski, B; Landmann, V; Grandmougin, D; Maureira, J-P; Laheurte, P; Tran, N

2018-06-01

Implantation of a Left Ventricular Assist Device (LVAD) may produce both excessive local tissue stress and resulting strain-induced tissue rupture that are potential iatrogenic factors influencing the success of the surgical attachment of the LVAD into the myocardium. By using a computational simulation compared to mechanical tests, we sought to investigate the characteristics of stress-induced suture material on porcine myocardium. Tensile strength experiments (n = 8) were performed on bulk left myocardium to establish a hyperelastic reduced polynomial constitutive law. Simultaneously, suture strength tests on left myocardium (n = 6) were performed with a standard tensile test setup. Experiments were made on bulk ventricular wall with a single U-suture (polypropylene 3-0) and a PTFE pledget. Then, a Finite Element simulation of a LVAD suture case was performed. Strength versus displacement behavior was compared between mechanical and numerical experiments. Local stress fields in the model were thus analyzed. A strong correlation between the experimental and the numerical responses was observed, validating the relevance of the numerical model. A secure damage limit of 100 kPa on heart tissue was defined from mechanical suture testing and used to describe numerical results. The impact of suture on heart tissue could be accurately determined through new parameters of numerical data (stress diffusion, triaxiality stress). Finally, an ideal spacing between sutures of 2 mm was proposed. Our computational model showed a reliable ability to provide and predict various local tissue stresses created by suture penetration into the myocardium. In addition, this model contributed to providing valuable information useful to design less traumatic sutures for LVAD implantation. Therefore, our computational model is a promising tool to predict and optimize LVAD myocardial suture. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Research Agenda for Malaria Eradication: Modeling

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Malaria modeling can inform policy and guide research for malaria elimination and eradication from local implementation to global policy. A research and development agenda for malaria modeling is proposed, to support operations and to enhance the broader eradication research agenda. Models are envisioned as an integral part of research, planning, and evaluation, and modelers should ideally be integrated into multidisciplinary teams to update the models iteratively, communicate their appropriate use, and serve the needs of other research scientists, public health specialists, and government officials. A competitive and collaborative framework will result in policy recommendations from multiple, independently derived models and model systems that share harmonized databases. As planned, modeling results will be produced in five priority areas: (1) strategic planning to determine where and when resources should be optimally allocated to achieve eradication; (2) management plans to minimize the evolution of drug and pesticide resistance; (3) impact assessments of new and needed tools to interrupt transmission; (4) technical feasibility assessments to determine appropriate combinations of tools, an associated set of target intervention coverage levels, and the expected timelines for achieving a set of goals in different socio-ecological settings and different health systems; and (5) operational feasibility assessments to weigh the economic costs, capital investments, and human resource capacities required. PMID:21283605