MQAPRank: improved global protein model quality assessment by learning-to-rank.

PubMed

Jing, Xiaoyang; Dong, Qiwen

2017-05-25

Protein structure prediction has achieved a lot of progress during the last few decades and a greater number of models for a certain sequence can be predicted. Consequently, assessing the qualities of predicted protein models in perspective is one of the key components of successful protein structure prediction. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue, which could be roughly divided into three categories: single methods, quasi-single methods and clustering (or consensus) methods. Although these methods achieve much success at different levels, accurate protein model quality assessment is still an open problem. Here, we present the MQAPRank, a global protein model quality assessment program based on learning-to-rank. The MQAPRank first sorts the decoy models by using single method based on learning-to-rank algorithm to indicate their relative qualities for the target protein. And then it takes the first five models as references to predict the qualities of other models by using average GDT_TS scores between reference models and other models. Benchmarked on CASP11 and 3DRobot datasets, the MQAPRank achieved better performances than other leading protein model quality assessment methods. Recently, the MQAPRank participated in the CASP12 under the group name FDUBio and achieved the state-of-the-art performances. The MQAPRank provides a convenient and powerful tool for protein model quality assessment with the state-of-the-art performances, it is useful for protein structure prediction and model quality assessment usages.

Comparison of Static and Dynamic Assessment Procedures and Their Relation to Independent Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Day, Jeanne D.; And Others

1997-01-01

Relationships between pretraining skills, learning, and posttest performance were studied in spatial and verbal tasks for 84 preschool children. The measurement model that fit the data best maintained separate verbal and spatial domains. The best structural model included paths from pretest and learning assessments to posttest performance within…

Protocol for Reliability Assessment of Structural Health Monitoring Systems Incorporating Model-assisted Probability of Detection (MAPOD) Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

a quality evaluation with limited data, a model -based assessment must be...that affect system performance, a multistage approach to system validation, a modeling and experimental methodology for efficiently addressing a ...affect system performance, a multistage approach to system validation, a modeling and experimental methodology for efficiently addressing a wide range

Validation of a national hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, H. K.; Booker, D. J.; Cattoën, C.

2016-10-01

Nationwide predictions of flow time-series are valuable for development of policies relating to environmental flows, calculating reliability of supply to water users, or assessing risk of floods or droughts. This breadth of model utility is possible because various hydrological signatures can be derived from simulated flow time-series. However, producing national hydrological simulations can be challenging due to strong environmental diversity across catchments and a lack of data available to aid model parameterisation. A comprehensive and consistent suite of test procedures to quantify spatial and temporal patterns in performance across various parts of the hydrograph is described and applied to quantify the performance of an uncalibrated national rainfall-runoff model of New Zealand. Flow time-series observed at 485 gauging stations were used to calculate Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias when simulating between-site differences in daily series, between-year differences in annual series, and between-site differences in hydrological signatures. The procedures were used to assess the benefit of applying a correction to the modelled flow duration curve based on an independent statistical analysis. They were used to aid understanding of climatological, hydrological and model-based causes of differences in predictive performance by assessing multiple hypotheses that describe where and when the model was expected to perform best. As the procedures produce quantitative measures of performance, they provide an objective basis for model assessment that could be applied when comparing observed daily flow series with competing simulated flow series from any region-wide or nationwide hydrological model. Model performance varied in space and time with better scores in larger and medium-wet catchments, and in catchments with smaller seasonal variations. Surprisingly, model performance was not sensitive to aquifer fraction or rain gauge density.

Predicting Directly Measured Trunk and Upper Arm Postures in Paper Mill Work From Administrative Data, Workers' Ratings and Posture Observations.

PubMed

Heiden, Marina; Garza, Jennifer; Trask, Catherine; Mathiassen, Svend Erik

2017-03-01

A cost-efficient approach for assessing working postures could be to build statistical models for predicting results of direct measurements from cheaper data, and apply these models to samples in which only the latter data are available. The present study aimed to build and assess the performance of statistical models predicting inclinometer-assessed trunk and arm posture among paper mill workers. Separate models were built using administrative data, workers' ratings of their exposure, and observations of the work from video recordings as predictors. Trunk and upper arm postures were measured using inclinometry on 28 paper mill workers during three work shifts each. Simultaneously, the workers were video filmed, and their postures were assessed by observation of the videos afterwards. Workers' ratings of exposure, and administrative data on staff and production during the shifts were also collected. Linear mixed models were fitted for predicting inclinometer-assessed exposure variables (median trunk and upper arm angle, proportion of time with neutral trunk and upper arm posture, and frequency of periods in neutral trunk and upper arm inclination) from administrative data, workers' ratings, and observations, respectively. Performance was evaluated in terms of Akaike information criterion, proportion of variance explained (R2), and standard error (SE) of the model estimate. For models performing well, validity was assessed by bootstrap resampling. Models based on administrative data performed poorly (R2 ≤ 15%) and would not be useful for assessing posture in this population. Models using workers' ratings of exposure performed slightly better (8% ≤ R2 ≤ 27% for trunk posture; 14% ≤ R2 ≤ 36% for arm posture). The best model was obtained when using observational data for predicting frequency of periods with neutral arm inclination. It explained 56% of the variance in the postural exposure, and its SE was 5.6. Bootstrap validation of this model showed similar expected performance in other samples (5th-95th percentile: R2 = 45-63%; SE = 5.1-6.2). Observational data had a better ability to predict inclinometer-assessed upper arm exposures than workers' ratings or administrative data. However, observational measurements are typically more expensive to obtain. The results encourage analyses of the cost-efficiency of modeling based on administrative data, workers' ratings, and observation, compared to the performance and cost of measuring exposure directly. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Value-Added Models for Teacher Preparation Programs: Validity and Reliability Threats, and a Manageable Alternative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brady, Michael P.; Heiser, Lawrence A.; McCormick, Jazarae K.; Forgan, James

2016-01-01

High-stakes standardized student assessments are increasingly used in value-added evaluation models to connect teacher performance to P-12 student learning. These assessments are also being used to evaluate teacher preparation programs, despite validity and reliability threats. A more rational model linking student performance to candidates who…

A new framework to enhance the interpretation of external validation studies of clinical prediction models.

PubMed

Debray, Thomas P A; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Koffijberg, Hendrik; Nieboer, Daan; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Moons, Karel G M

2015-03-01

It is widely acknowledged that the performance of diagnostic and prognostic prediction models should be assessed in external validation studies with independent data from "different but related" samples as compared with that of the development sample. We developed a framework of methodological steps and statistical methods for analyzing and enhancing the interpretation of results from external validation studies of prediction models. We propose to quantify the degree of relatedness between development and validation samples on a scale ranging from reproducibility to transportability by evaluating their corresponding case-mix differences. We subsequently assess the models' performance in the validation sample and interpret the performance in view of the case-mix differences. Finally, we may adjust the model to the validation setting. We illustrate this three-step framework with a prediction model for diagnosing deep venous thrombosis using three validation samples with varying case mix. While one external validation sample merely assessed the model's reproducibility, two other samples rather assessed model transportability. The performance in all validation samples was adequate, and the model did not require extensive updating to correct for miscalibration or poor fit to the validation settings. The proposed framework enhances the interpretation of findings at external validation of prediction models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inconsistent Strategies to Spin up Models in CMIP5: Implications for Ocean Biogeochemical Model Performance Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seferian, Roland; Gehlen, Marion; Bopp, Laurent; Resplandy, Laure; Orr, James C.; Marti, Olivier; Dunne, John P.; Christian, James R.; Doney, Scott C.; Ilyina, Tatiana;

Development of an Integrated Team Training Design and Assessment Architecture to Support Adaptability in Healthcare Teams

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

and implementation of embedded, adaptive feedback and performance assessment. The investigators also initiated work designing a Bayesian Belief ...training; Teamwork; Adaptive performance; Leadership; Simulation; Modeling; Bayesian belief networks (BBN) 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION...Trauma teams Team training Teamwork Adaptability Adaptive performance Leadership Simulation Modeling Bayesian belief networks (BBN) 6

Developing Statistical Models to Assess Transplant Outcomes Using National Registries: The Process in the United States.

PubMed

Snyder, Jon J; Salkowski, Nicholas; Kim, S Joseph; Zaun, David; Xiong, Hui; Israni, Ajay K; Kasiske, Bertram L

2016-02-01

Created by the US National Organ Transplant Act in 1984, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) is obligated to publicly report data on transplant program and organ procurement organization performance in the United States. These reports include risk-adjusted assessments of graft and patient survival, and programs performing worse or better than expected are identified. The SRTR currently maintains 43 risk adjustment models for assessing posttransplant patient and graft survival and, in collaboration with the SRTR Technical Advisory Committee, has developed and implemented a new systematic process for model evaluation and revision. Patient cohorts for the risk adjustment models are identified, and single-organ and multiorgan transplants are defined, then each risk adjustment model is developed following a prespecified set of steps. Model performance is assessed, the model is refit to a more recent cohort before each evaluation cycle, and then it is applied to the evaluation cohort. The field of solid organ transplantation is unique in the breadth of the standardized data that are collected. These data allow for quality assessment across all transplant providers in the United States. A standardized process of risk model development using data from national registries may enhance the field.

An Examination of Pennsylvania's Classroom Diagnostic Testing as a Predictive Model of Pennsylvania System of School Assessment Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matsanka, Christopher

2017-01-01

The purpose of this non-experimental quantitative study was to investigate the relationship between Pennsylvania's Classroom Diagnostic Tools (CDT) interim assessments and the state-mandated Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA) and to create linear regression equations that could be used as models to predict student performance on the…

Metrics for Performance Evaluation of Patient Exercises during Physical Therapy.

PubMed

Vakanski, Aleksandar; Ferguson, Jake M; Lee, Stephen

2017-06-01

The article proposes a set of metrics for evaluation of patient performance in physical therapy exercises. Taxonomy is employed that classifies the metrics into quantitative and qualitative categories, based on the level of abstraction of the captured motion sequences. Further, the quantitative metrics are classified into model-less and model-based metrics, in reference to whether the evaluation employs the raw measurements of patient performed motions, or whether the evaluation is based on a mathematical model of the motions. The reviewed metrics include root-mean square distance, Kullback Leibler divergence, log-likelihood, heuristic consistency, Fugl-Meyer Assessment, and similar. The metrics are evaluated for a set of five human motions captured with a Kinect sensor. The metrics can potentially be integrated into a system that employs machine learning for modelling and assessment of the consistency of patient performance in home-based therapy setting. Automated performance evaluation can overcome the inherent subjectivity in human performed therapy assessment, and it can increase the adherence to prescribed therapy plans, and reduce healthcare costs.

Performance assessment of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) for modeling dispersion in an urban street canyon with tree planting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moonen, P.; Gromke, C.; Dorer, V.

2013-08-01

The potential of a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model to reliably predict near-field pollutant dispersion is assessed. To that extent, detailed time-resolved numerical simulations of coupled flow and dispersion are conducted for a street canyon with tree planting. Different crown porosities are considered. The model performance is assessed in several steps, ranging from a qualitative comparison to measured concentrations, over statistical data analysis by means of scatter plots and box plots, up to the calculation of objective validation metrics. The extensive validation effort highlights and quantifies notable features and shortcomings of the model, which would otherwise remain unnoticed. The model performance is found to be spatially non-uniform. Closer agreement with measurement data is achieved near the canyon ends than for the central part of the canyon, and typical model acceptance criteria are satisfied more easily for the leeward than for the windward canyon wall. This demonstrates the need for rigorous model evaluation. Only quality-assured models can be used with confidence to support assessment, planning and implementation of pollutant mitigation strategies.

Using HLM to Explore the Effects of Perceptions of Learning Environments and Assessments on Students' Test Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chu, Man-Wai; Babenko, Oksana; Cui, Ying; Leighton, Jacqueline P.

2014-01-01

The study examines the role that perceptions or impressions of learning environments and assessments play in students' performance on a large-scale standardized test. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) was used to test aspects of the Learning Errors and Formative Feedback model to determine how much variation in students' performance was explained…

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

PubMed Central

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S.

2016-01-01

Need to Assess the Skill of Ecosystem Models Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. Northeast US Atlantis Marine Ecosystem Model We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. Skill Assessment Is Both Possible and Advisable We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment). PMID:26731540

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Model in Operation Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Meilisa; Efendi, Syahril; Zarlis, Muhammad

2018-01-01

Quality management is an effective system in operation management to develops, maintains, and improves quality from groups of companies that allow marketing, production, and service at the most economycal level as well as ensuring customer satisfication. Many companies are practicing quality management to improve their bussiness performance. One of performance measurement is through measurement of efficiency. One of the tools can be used to assess efficiency of companies performance is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The aim of this paper is using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to assess efficiency of quality management. In this paper will be explained CCR, BCC, and SBM models to assess efficiency of quality management.

Concordance correlation for model performance assessment: An example with reference evapotranspiration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Procedures for assessing model performance in agronomy are often arbitrary and not always helpful. An omnibus analysis statistic, concordance correlation, is widely known and used in many other sciences. An illustrative example is presented here. The analysis assumes the exact relationship “observat...

Milestone-specific, Observed data points for evaluating levels of performance (MODEL) assessment strategy for anesthesiology residency programs.

PubMed

Nagy, Christopher J; Fitzgerald, Brian M; Kraus, Gregory P

2014-01-01

Anesthesiology residency programs will be expected to have Milestones-based evaluation systems in place by July 2014 as part of the Next Accreditation System. The San Antonio Uniformed Services Health Education Consortium (SAUSHEC) anesthesiology residency program developed and implemented a Milestones-based feedback and evaluation system a year ahead of schedule. It has been named the Milestone-specific, Observed Data points for Evaluating Levels of performance (MODEL) assessment strategy. The "MODEL Menu" and the "MODEL Blueprint" are tools that other anesthesiology residency programs can use in developing their own Milestones-based feedback and evaluation systems prior to ACGME-required implementation. Data from our early experience with the streamlined MODEL blueprint assessment strategy showed substantially improved faculty compliance with reporting requirements. The MODEL assessment strategy provides programs with a workable assessment method for residents, and important Milestones data points to programs for ACGME reporting.

Sensors vs. experts - a performance comparison of sensor-based fall risk assessment vs. conventional assessment in a sample of geriatric patients.

PubMed

Marschollek, Michael; Rehwald, Anja; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Gietzelt, Matthias; Nemitz, Gerhard; zu Schwabedissen, Hubertus Meyer; Schulze, Mareike

2011-06-28

Fall events contribute significantly to mortality, morbidity and costs in our ageing population. In order to identify persons at risk and to target preventive measures, many scores and assessment tools have been developed. These often require expertise and are costly to implement. Recent research investigates the use of wearable inertial sensors to provide objective data on motion features which can be used to assess individual fall risk automatically. So far it is unknown how well this new method performs in comparison with conventional fall risk assessment tools. The aim of our research is to compare the predictive performance of our new sensor-based method with conventional and established methods, based on prospective data. In a first study phase, 119 inpatients of a geriatric clinic took part in motion measurements using a wireless triaxial accelerometer during a Timed Up&Go (TUG) test and a 20 m walk. Furthermore, the St. Thomas Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients (STRATIFY) was performed, and the multidisciplinary geriatric care team estimated the patients' fall risk. In a second follow-up phase of the study, 46 of the participants were interviewed after one year, including a fall and activity assessment. The predictive performances of the TUG, the STRATIFY and team scores are compared. Furthermore, two automatically induced logistic regression models based on conventional clinical and assessment data (CONV) as well as sensor data (SENSOR) are matched. Among the risk assessment scores, the geriatric team score (sensitivity 56%, specificity 80%) outperforms STRATIFY and TUG. The induced logistic regression models CONV and SENSOR achieve similar performance values (sensitivity 68%/58%, specificity 74%/78%, AUC 0.74/0.72, +LR 2.64/2.61). Both models are able to identify more persons at risk than the simple scores. Sensor-based objective measurements of motion parameters in geriatric patients can be used to assess individual fall risk, and our prediction model's performance matches that of a model based on conventional clinical and assessment data. Sensor-based measurements using a small wearable device may contribute significant information to conventional methods and are feasible in an unsupervised setting. More prospective research is needed to assess the cost-benefit relation of our approach.

Sensors vs. experts - A performance comparison of sensor-based fall risk assessment vs. conventional assessment in a sample of geriatric patients

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Fall events contribute significantly to mortality, morbidity and costs in our ageing population. In order to identify persons at risk and to target preventive measures, many scores and assessment tools have been developed. These often require expertise and are costly to implement. Recent research investigates the use of wearable inertial sensors to provide objective data on motion features which can be used to assess individual fall risk automatically. So far it is unknown how well this new method performs in comparison with conventional fall risk assessment tools. The aim of our research is to compare the predictive performance of our new sensor-based method with conventional and established methods, based on prospective data. Methods In a first study phase, 119 inpatients of a geriatric clinic took part in motion measurements using a wireless triaxial accelerometer during a Timed Up&Go (TUG) test and a 20 m walk. Furthermore, the St. Thomas Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients (STRATIFY) was performed, and the multidisciplinary geriatric care team estimated the patients' fall risk. In a second follow-up phase of the study, 46 of the participants were interviewed after one year, including a fall and activity assessment. The predictive performances of the TUG, the STRATIFY and team scores are compared. Furthermore, two automatically induced logistic regression models based on conventional clinical and assessment data (CONV) as well as sensor data (SENSOR) are matched. Results Among the risk assessment scores, the geriatric team score (sensitivity 56%, specificity 80%) outperforms STRATIFY and TUG. The induced logistic regression models CONV and SENSOR achieve similar performance values (sensitivity 68%/58%, specificity 74%/78%, AUC 0.74/0.72, +LR 2.64/2.61). Both models are able to identify more persons at risk than the simple scores. Conclusions Sensor-based objective measurements of motion parameters in geriatric patients can be used to assess individual fall risk, and our prediction model's performance matches that of a model based on conventional clinical and assessment data. Sensor-based measurements using a small wearable device may contribute significant information to conventional methods and are feasible in an unsupervised setting. More prospective research is needed to assess the cost-benefit relation of our approach. PMID:21711504

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Differences in Performance Among Test Statistics for Assessing Phylogenomic Model Adequacy.

PubMed

Duchêne, David A; Duchêne, Sebastian; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-18

Statistical phylogenetic analyses of genomic data depend on models of nucleotide or amino acid substitution. The adequacy of these substitution models can be assessed using a number of test statistics, allowing the model to be rejected when it is found to provide a poor description of the evolutionary process. A potentially valuable use of model-adequacy test statistics is to identify when data sets are likely to produce unreliable phylogenetic estimates, but their differences in performance are rarely explored. We performed a comprehensive simulation study to identify test statistics that are sensitive to some of the most commonly cited sources of phylogenetic estimation error. Our results show that, for many test statistics, traditional thresholds for assessing model adequacy can fail to reject the model when the phylogenetic inferences are inaccurate and imprecise. This is particularly problematic when analysing loci that have few variable informative sites. We propose new thresholds for assessing substitution model adequacy and demonstrate their effectiveness in analyses of three phylogenomic data sets. These thresholds lead to frequent rejection of the model for loci that yield topological inferences that are imprecise and are likely to be inaccurate. We also propose the use of a summary statistic that provides a practical assessment of overall model adequacy. Our approach offers a promising means of enhancing model choice in genome-scale data sets, potentially leading to improvements in the reliability of phylogenomic inference.

Massive integration of diverse protein quality assessment methods to improve template based modeling in CASP11

PubMed Central

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Adhikari, Badri; Li, Jilong; Cheng, Jianlin

2015-01-01

Model evaluation and selection is an important step and a big challenge in template-based protein structure prediction. Individual model quality assessment methods designed for recognizing some specific properties of protein structures often fail to consistently select good models from a model pool because of their limitations. Therefore, combining multiple complimentary quality assessment methods is useful for improving model ranking and consequently tertiary structure prediction. Here, we report the performance and analysis of our human tertiary structure predictor (MULTICOM) based on the massive integration of 14 diverse complementary quality assessment methods that was successfully benchmarked in the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques of Protein Structure prediction (CASP11). The predictions of MULTICOM for 39 template-based domains were rigorously assessed by six scoring metrics covering global topology of Cα trace, local all-atom fitness, side chain quality, and physical reasonableness of the model. The results show that the massive integration of complementary, diverse single-model and multi-model quality assessment methods can effectively leverage the strength of single-model methods in distinguishing quality variation among similar good models and the advantage of multi-model quality assessment methods of identifying reasonable average-quality models. The overall excellent performance of the MULTICOM predictor demonstrates that integrating a large number of model quality assessment methods in conjunction with model clustering is a useful approach to improve the accuracy, diversity, and consequently robustness of template-based protein structure prediction. PMID:26369671

Evolution in performance assessment modeling as a result of regulatory review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rowat, J.H.; Dolinar, G.M.; Stephens, M.E.

1995-12-31

AECL is planning to build the IRUS (Intrusion Resistant Underground Structure) facility for near-surface disposal of LLRW. The PSAR (preliminary safety assessment report) was subject to an initial regulatory review during mid-1992. The regulatory authority provided comments on many aspects of the safety assessment documentation including a number of questions on specific PA (Performance Assessment) modelling assumptions. As a result of these comments as well as a separate detailed review of the IRUS disposal concept, changes were made to the conceptual and mathematical models. The original disposal concept included a non-sorbing vault backfill, with a strong reliance on the wasteformmore » as a barrier. This concept was altered to decrease reliance on the wasteform by replacing the original backfill with a sand/clinoptilolite mix, which is a better sorber of metal cations. This change lead to changes in the PA models which in turn altered the safety case for the facility. This, and other changes that impacted performance assessment modelling are the subject of this paper.« less

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

PubMed

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

2016-01-01

Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment).

Prioritization of in silico models and molecular descriptors for the assessment of ready biodegradability.

PubMed

Fernández, Alberto; Rallo, Robert; Giralt, Francesc

2015-10-01

Ready biodegradability is a key property for evaluating the long-term effects of chemicals on the environment and human health. As such, it is used as a screening test for the assessment of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic substances. Regulators encourage the use of non-testing methods, such as in silico models, to save money and time. A dataset of 757 chemicals was collected to assess the performance of four freely available in silico models that predict ready biodegradability. They were applied to develop a new consensus method that prioritizes the use of each individual model according to its performance on chemical subsets driven by the presence or absence of different molecular descriptors. This consensus method was capable of almost eliminating unpredictable chemicals, while the performance of combined models was substantially improved with respect to that of the individual models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods to assess performance of models estimating risk of death in intensive care patients: a review.

PubMed

Cook, D A

2006-04-01

Models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care unit patients can be used to stratify patients according to the severity of their condition and to control for casemix and severity of illness. These models have been used for risk adjustment in quality monitoring, administration, management and research and as an aid to clinical decision making. Models such as the Mortality Prediction Model family, SAPS II, APACHE II, APACHE III and the organ system failure models provide estimates of the probability of in-hospital death of ICU patients. This review examines methods to assess the performance of these models. The key attributes of a model are discrimination (the accuracy of the ranking in order of probability of death) and calibration (the extent to which the model's prediction of probability of death reflects the true risk of death). These attributes should be assessed in existing models that predict the probability of patient mortality, and in any subsequent model that is developed for the purposes of estimating these probabilities. The literature contains a range of approaches for assessment which are reviewed and a survey of the methodologies used in studies of intensive care mortality models is presented. The systematic approach used by Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy provides a framework to incorporate these theoretical considerations of model assessment and recommendations are made for evaluation and presentation of the performance of models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care patients.

Using Performance Assessment Model in Physics Laboratory to Increase Students’ Critical Thinking Disposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emiliannur, E.; Hamidah, I.; Zainul, A.; Wulan, A. R.

2017-09-01

Performance Assessment Model (PAM) has been developed to represent the physics concepts which able to be devided into five experiments: 1) acceleration due to gravity; 2) Hooke’s law; 3) simple harmonic motion; 4) work-energy concepts; and 5) the law of momentum conservation. The aim of this study was to determine the contribution of PAM in physics laboratory to increase students’ Critical Thinking Disposition (CTD) at senior high school. Subject of the study were 11th grade consist 32 students of a senior high school in Lubuk Sikaping, West Sumatera. The research used one group pretest-postest design. Data was collected through essay test and questionnaire about CTD. Data was analyzed using quantitative way with N-gain value. This study concluded that performance assessmet model effectively increases the N-gain at medium category. It means students’ critical thinking disposition significant increase after implementation of performance assessment model in physics laboratory.

MPD Thruster Performance Analytic Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilland, James; Johnston, Geoffrey

2003-01-01

Magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thrusters are capable of accelerating quasi-neutral plasmas to high exhaust velocities using Megawatts (MW) of electric power. These characteristics make such devices worthy of consideration for demanding, far-term missions such as the human exploration of Mars or beyond. Assessment of MPD thrusters at the system and mission level is often difficult due to their status as ongoing experimental research topics rather than developed thrusters. However, in order to assess MPD thrusters utility in later missions, some adequate characterization of performance, or more exactly, projected performance, and system level definition are required for use in analyses. The most recent physical models of self-field MPD thrusters have been examined, assessed, and reconfigured for use by systems and mission analysts. The physical models allow for rational projections of thruster performance based on physical parameters that can be measured in the laboratory. The models and their implications for the design of future MPD thrusters are presented.

MPD Thruster Performance Analytic Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilland, James; Johnston, Geoffrey

2007-01-01

Magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thrusters are capable of accelerating quasi-neutral plasmas to high exhaust velocities using Megawatts (MW) of electric power. These characteristics make such devices worthy of consideration for demanding, far-term missions such as the human exploration of Mars or beyond. Assessment of MPD thrusters at the system and mission level is often difficult due to their status as ongoing experimental research topics rather than developed thrusters. However, in order to assess MPD thrusters utility in later missions, some adequate characterization of performance, or more exactly, projected performance, and system level definition are required for use in analyses. The most recent physical models of self-field MPD thrusters have been examined, assessed, and reconfigured for use by systems and mission analysts. The physical models allow for rational projections of thruster performance based on physical parameters that can be measured in the laboratory. The models and their implications for the design of future MPD thrusters are presented.

Modelling Complex Fenestration Systems using physical and virtual models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thanachareonkit, Anothai; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis

2010-04-15

Physical or virtual models are commonly used to visualize the conceptual ideas of architects, lighting designers and researchers; they are also employed to assess the daylighting performance of buildings, particularly in cases where Complex Fenestration Systems (CFS) are considered. Recent studies have however revealed a general tendency of physical models to over-estimate this performance, compared to those of real buildings; these discrepancies can be attributed to several reasons. In order to identify the main error sources, a series of comparisons in-between a real building (a single office room within a test module) and the corresponding physical and virtual models wasmore » undertaken. The physical model was placed in outdoor conditions, which were strictly identical to those of the real building, as well as underneath a scanning sky simulator. The virtual model simulations were carried out by way of the Radiance program using the GenSky function; an alternative evaluation method, named Partial Daylight Factor method (PDF method), was also employed with the physical model together with sky luminance distributions acquired by a digital sky scanner during the monitoring of the real building. The overall daylighting performance of physical and virtual models were assessed and compared. The causes of discrepancies between the daylighting performance of the real building and the models were analysed. The main identified sources of errors are the reproduction of building details, the CFS modelling and the mocking-up of the geometrical and photometrical properties. To study the impact of these errors on daylighting performance assessment, computer simulation models created using the Radiance program were also used to carry out a sensitivity analysis of modelling errors. The study of the models showed that large discrepancies can occur in daylighting performance assessment. In case of improper mocking-up of the glazing for instance, relative divergences of 25-40% can be found in different room locations, suggesting that more light is entering than actually monitored in the real building. All these discrepancies can however be reduced by making an effort to carefully mock up the geometry and photometry of the real building. A synthesis is presented in this article which can be used as guidelines for daylighting designers to avoid or estimate errors during CFS daylighting performance assessment. (author)« less

Operator Performance Measures for Assessing Voice Communication Effectiveness

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-07-01

performance and work- load assessment techniques have been based.I Broadbent (1958) described a limited capacity filter model of human information...INFORMATION PROCESSING 20 3.1.1. Auditory Attention 20 3.1.2. Auditory Memory 24 3.2. MODELS OF INFORMATION PROCESSING 24 3.2.1. Capacity Theories 25...Learning 0 Attention * Language Specialization • Decision Making• Problem Solving Auditory Information Processing Models of Processing Ooemtor

Best practices for assessing competence and performance of the behavioral health workforce.

PubMed

Bashook, Philip G

2005-01-01

The need for mechanisms to assess the competence and performance of the behavioral health workforce has received increasing attention. This article reviews strategies used in general medicine and other disciplines for assessing trainees and practitioners. The possibilities and limitations of various approaches are reviewed, and the implications for behavioral health are addressed. A conceptual model of competence is presented, and practical applications of this model are reviewed. Finally, guidelines are proposed for building competency assessment protocols for behavioral health.

[Modeling the academic performance of medical students in basic sciences and pre-clinical courses: a longitudinal study].

PubMed

Zúñiga, Denisse; Mena, Beltrán; Oliva, Rose; Pedrals, Nuria; Padilla, Oslando; Bitran, Marcela

2009-10-01

The study of predictors of academic performance is relevant for medical education. Most studies of academic performance use global ratings as outcome measure, and do not evaluate the influence of the assessment methods. To model by multivariate analysis, the academic performance of medical considering, besides academic and demographic variables, the methods used to assess students' learning and their preferred modes of information processing. Two hundred seventy two students admitted to the medical school of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile from 2000 to 2003. Six groups of variables were studied to model the students' performance in five basic science courses (Anatomy, Biology, Calculus, Chemistry and Physics) and two pre-clinical courses (Integrated Medical Clinic I and IT). The assessment methods examined were multiple choice question tests, Objective Structured Clinical Examination and tutor appraisal. The results of the university admission tests (high school grades, mathematics and biology tests), the assessment methods used, the curricular year and previous application to medical school, were predictors of academic performance. The information processing modes influenced academic performance, but only in interaction with other variables. Perception (abstract or concrete) interacted with the assessment methods, and information use (active or reflexive), with sex. The correlation between the real and predicted grades was 0.7. In addition to the academic results obtained prior to university entrance, the methods of assessment used in the university and the information processing modes influence the academic performance of medical students in basic and preclinical courses.

An Introduction to the Partial Credit Model for Developing Nursing Assessments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Christine

1999-01-01

Demonstrates how the partial credit model, a variation of the Rasch Measurement Model, can be used to develop performance-based assessments for nursing education. Applies the model using the Practical Knowledge Inventory for Nurses. (SK)

Towards General Models of Effective Science Inquiry in Virtual Performance Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, R. S.; Clarke-Midura, J.; Ocumpaugh, J.

2016-01-01

Recent interest in online assessment of scientific inquiry has led to several new online systems that attempt to assess these skills, but producing models that detect when students are successfully practising these skills can be challenging. In this paper, we study models that assess student inquiry in an immersive virtual environment, where a…

Frontal Representation as a Metric of Model Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglass, E.; Mask, A. C.

2017-12-01

Representation of fronts detected by altimetry are used to evaluate the performance of the HYCOM global operational product. Fronts are detected and assessed in daily alongtrack altimetry. Then, modeled sea surface height is interpolated to the locations of the alongtrack observations, and the same frontal detection algorithm is applied to the interpolated model output. The percentage of fronts found in the altimetry and replicated in the model gives a score (0-100) that assesses the model's ability to replicate fronts in the proper location with the proper orientation. Further information can be obtained from determining the number of "extra" fronts found in the model but not in the altimetry, and from assessing the horizontal and vertical dimensions of the front in the model as compared to observations. Finally, the sensitivity of this metric to choices regarding the smoothing of noisy alongtrack altimetry observations, and to the minimum size of fronts being analyzed, is assessed.

Differential effects of two types of formative assessment in predicting performance of first-year medical students.

PubMed

Krasne, Sally; Wimmers, Paul F; Relan, Anju; Drake, Thomas A

2006-05-01

Formative assessments are systematically designed instructional interventions to assess and provide feedback on students' strengths and weaknesses in the course of teaching and learning. Despite their known benefits to student attitudes and learning, medical school curricula have been slow to integrate such assessments into the curriculum. This study investigates how performance on two different modes of formative assessment relate to each other and to performance on summative assessments in an integrated, medical-school environment. Two types of formative assessment were administered to 146 first-year medical students each week over 8 weeks: a timed, closed-book component to assess factual recall and image recognition, and an un-timed, open-book component to assess higher order reasoning including the ability to identify and access appropriate resources and to integrate and apply knowledge. Analogous summative assessments were administered in the ninth week. Models relating formative and summative assessment performance were tested using Structural Equation Modeling. Two latent variables underlying achievement on formative and summative assessments could be identified; a "formative-assessment factor" and a "summative-assessment factor," with the former predicting the latter. A latent variable underlying achievement on open-book formative assessments was highly predictive of achievement on both open- and closed-book summative assessments, whereas a latent variable underlying closed-book assessments only predicted performance on the closed-book summative assessment. Formative assessments can be used as effective predictive tools of summative performance in medical school. Open-book, un-timed assessments of higher order processes appeared to be better predictors of overall summative performance than closed-book, timed assessments of factual recall and image recognition.

Portfolios: An Alternative Method of Student and Program Assessment

PubMed Central

Hannam, Susan E.

1995-01-01

The use of performance-based evaluation and alternative assessment techniques has become essential for curriculum programs seeking Commission of Accreditation of Allied Health Education Programs (CAAHEP) accreditation. In athletic training education, few assessment models exist to assess student performance over the entire course of their educational program. This article describes a model of assessment-a student athletic training portfolio of “best works.” The portfolio can serve as a method to assess student development and to assess program effectiveness. The goals of the program include purposes specific to the five NATA performance domains. In addition, four types of portfolio evidence are described: artifacts, attestations, productions, and reproductions. Quality assignments and projects completed by students as they progress through a six-semester program are identified relative to the type of evidence and the domain(s) they represent. The portfolio assists with student development, provides feedback for curriculum planning, allows for student/faculty collaboration and “coaching” of the student, and assists with job searching. This information will serve as a useful model for those athletic training programs looking for an alternative method of assessing student and program outcomes. PMID:16558359

Space station electrical power system availability study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turnquist, Scott R.; Twombly, Mark A.

1988-01-01

ARINC Research Corporation performed a preliminary reliability, and maintainability (RAM) anlaysis of the NASA space station Electric Power Station (EPS). The analysis was performed using the ARINC Research developed UNIRAM RAM assessment methodology and software program. The analysis was performed in two phases: EPS modeling and EPS RAM assessment. The EPS was modeled in four parts: the insolar power generation system, the eclipse power generation system, the power management and distribution system (both ring and radial power distribution control unit (PDCU) architectures), and the power distribution to the inner keel PDCUs. The EPS RAM assessment was conducted in five steps: the use of UNIRAM to perform baseline EPS model analyses and to determine the orbital replacement unit (ORU) criticalities; the determination of EPS sensitivity to on-orbit spared of ORUs and the provision of an indication of which ORUs may need to be spared on-orbit; the determination of EPS sensitivity to changes in ORU reliability; the determination of the expected annual number of ORU failures; and the integration of the power generator system model results with the distribution system model results to assess the full EPS. Conclusions were drawn and recommendations were made.

Report Carding: A Model for Foundation Portfolio Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmitz, Connie C.; Schillo, Barbara A.

2005-01-01

This article reviews changes in the accountability landscape that have occurred for foundations in recent years and several precedents for foundation performance assessment. The authors then present a model of portfolio assessment that is used for organizational accountability and learning. This model, which was piloted in 2002 and 2003 for the…

Interrelationship of Knowledge, Interest, and Recall: Assessing a Model of Domain Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alexander, Patricia A.; And Others

1995-01-01

Two experiments involving 125 college and graduate students examined the interrelationship of subject-matter knowledge, interest, and recall in the field of human immunology and biology and assessed cross-domain performance in physics. Patterns of knowledge, interest, and performance fit well with the premises of the Model of Domain Learning. (SLD)

The Comparative Performance of Conditional Independence Indices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Doyoung; De Ayala, R. J.; Ferdous, Abdullah A.; Nering, Michael L.

2011-01-01

To realize the benefits of item response theory (IRT), one must have model-data fit. One facet of a model-data fit investigation involves assessing the tenability of the conditional item independence (CII) assumption. In this Monte Carlo study, the comparative performance of 10 indices for identifying conditional item dependence is assessed. The…

Fish Assemblage Indicators for the National Rivers and Streams Assessment: Performance of model-based vs. traditionally constructed multimetric indices

EPA Science Inventory

The development of multimetric indices (MMIs) for use in assessing the ecological condition of rivers and streams has advanced in recent years with the use of various types of modeling approaches to factor out the influence of natural variability and improve the performance. Ass...

Prioritization of in silico models and molecular descriptors for the assessment of ready biodegradability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fernández, Alberto; Rallo, Robert; Giralt, Francesc

2015-10-15

Ready biodegradability is a key property for evaluating the long-term effects of chemicals on the environment and human health. As such, it is used as a screening test for the assessment of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic substances. Regulators encourage the use of non-testing methods, such as in silico models, to save money and time. A dataset of 757 chemicals was collected to assess the performance of four freely available in silico models that predict ready biodegradability. They were applied to develop a new consensus method that prioritizes the use of each individual model according to its performance on chemical subsetsmore » driven by the presence or absence of different molecular descriptors. This consensus method was capable of almost eliminating unpredictable chemicals, while the performance of combined models was substantially improved with respect to that of the individual models. - Highlights: • Consensus method to predict ready biodegradability by prioritizing multiple QSARs. • Consensus reduced the amount of unpredictable chemicals to less than 2%. • Performance increased with the number of QSAR models considered. • The absence of 2D atom pairs contributed significantly to the consensus model.« less

Massive integration of diverse protein quality assessment methods to improve template based modeling in CASP11.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Adhikari, Badri; Li, Jilong; Cheng, Jianlin

2016-09-01

Model evaluation and selection is an important step and a big challenge in template-based protein structure prediction. Individual model quality assessment methods designed for recognizing some specific properties of protein structures often fail to consistently select good models from a model pool because of their limitations. Therefore, combining multiple complimentary quality assessment methods is useful for improving model ranking and consequently tertiary structure prediction. Here, we report the performance and analysis of our human tertiary structure predictor (MULTICOM) based on the massive integration of 14 diverse complementary quality assessment methods that was successfully benchmarked in the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques of Protein Structure prediction (CASP11). The predictions of MULTICOM for 39 template-based domains were rigorously assessed by six scoring metrics covering global topology of Cα trace, local all-atom fitness, side chain quality, and physical reasonableness of the model. The results show that the massive integration of complementary, diverse single-model and multi-model quality assessment methods can effectively leverage the strength of single-model methods in distinguishing quality variation among similar good models and the advantage of multi-model quality assessment methods of identifying reasonable average-quality models. The overall excellent performance of the MULTICOM predictor demonstrates that integrating a large number of model quality assessment methods in conjunction with model clustering is a useful approach to improve the accuracy, diversity, and consequently robustness of template-based protein structure prediction. Proteins 2016; 84(Suppl 1):247-259. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Performance-based comparison of neonatal intubation training outcomes: simulator and live animal.

PubMed

Andreatta, Pamela B; Klotz, Jessica J; Dooley-Hash, Suzanne L; Hauptman, Joe G; Biddinger, Bea; House, Joseph B

2015-02-01

The purpose of this article was to establish psychometric validity evidence for competency assessment instruments and to evaluate the impact of 2 forms of training on the abilities of clinicians to perform neonatal intubation. To inform the development of assessment instruments, we conducted comprehensive task analyses including each performance domain associated with neonatal intubation. Expert review confirmed content validity. Construct validity was established using the instruments to differentiate between the intubation performance abilities of practitioners (N = 294) with variable experience (novice through expert). Training outcomes were evaluated using a quasi-experimental design to evaluate performance differences between 294 subjects randomly assigned to 1 of 2 training groups. The training intervention followed American Heart Association Pediatric Advanced Life Support and Neonatal Resuscitation Program protocols with hands-on practice using either (1) live feline or (2) simulated feline models. Performance assessment data were captured before and directly following the training. All data were analyzed using analysis of variance with repeated measures and statistical significance set at P < .05. Content validity, reliability, and consistency evidence were established for each assessment instrument. Construct validity for each assessment instrument was supported by significantly higher scores for subjects with greater levels of experience, as compared with those with less experience (P = .000). Overall, subjects performed significantly better in each assessment domain, following the training intervention (P = .000). After controlling for experience level, there were no significant differences among the cognitive, performance, and self-efficacy outcomes between clinicians trained with live animal model or simulator model. Analysis of retention scores showed that simulator trained subjects had significantly higher performance scores after 18 weeks (P = .01) and 52 weeks (P = .001) and cognitive scores after 52 weeks (P = .001). The results of this study demonstrate the feasibility of using valid, reliable assessment instruments to assess clinician competency and self-efficacy in the performance of neonatal intubation. We demonstrated the relative equivalency of live animal and simulation-based models as tools to support acquisition of neonatal intubation skills. Retention of performance abilities was greater for subjects trained using the simulator, likely because it afforded greater opportunity for repeated practice. Outcomes in each assessment area were influenced by the previous intubation experience of participants. This suggests that neonatal intubation training programs could be tailored to the level of provider experience to make efficient use of time and educational resources. Future research focusing on the uses of assessment in the applied clinical environment, as well as identification of optimal training cycles for performance retention, is merited.

Solar array electrical performance assessment for Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Bryan K.; Brisco, Holly

1993-01-01

Electrical power for Space Station Freedom will be generated by large Photovoltaic arrays with a beginning of life power requirement of 30.8 kW per array. The solar arrays will operate in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) over a design life of fifteen years. This paper provides an analysis of the predicted solar array electrical performance over the design life and presents a summary of supporting analysis and test data for the assigned model parameters and performance loss factors. Each model parameter and loss factor is assessed based upon program requirements, component analysis, and test data to date. A description of the LMSC performance model, future test plans, and predicted performance ranges are also given.

Solar array electrical performance assessment for Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Bryan K.; Brisco, Holly

1993-01-01

Electrical power for Space Station Freedom will be generated by large photovoltaic arrays with a beginning of life power requirement of 30.8 kW per array. The solar arrays will operate in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) over a design life of fifteen years. This paper provides an analysis of the predicted solar array electrical performance over the design life and presents a summary of supporting analysis and test data for the assigned model parameters and performance loss factors. Each model parameter and loss factor is assessed based upon program requirements, component analysis and test data to date. A description of the LMSC performance model future test plans and predicted performance ranges are also given.

Managing for efficiency in health care: the case of Greek public hospitals.

PubMed

Mitropoulos, Panagiotis; Mitropoulos, Ioannis; Sissouras, Aris

2013-12-01

This paper evaluates the efficiency of public hospitals with two alternative conceptual models. One model targets resource usage directly to assess production efficiency, while the other model incorporates financial results to assess economic efficiency. Performance analysis of these models was conducted in two stages. In stage one, we utilized data envelopment analysis to obtain the efficiency score of each hospital, while in stage two we took into account the influence of the operational environment on efficiency by regressing those scores on explanatory variables that concern the performance of hospital services. We applied these methods to evaluate 96 general hospitals in the Greek national health system. The results indicate that, although the average efficiency scores in both models have remained relatively stable compared to past assessments, internal changes in hospital performances do exist. This study provides a clear framework for policy implications to increase the overall efficiency of general hospitals.

The Empirical Testing of a Musical Performance Assessment Paradigm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, Brian E.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to test a hypothesized model of aurally perceived performer-controlled musical factors that influence assessments of performance quality. Previous research studies on musical performance constructs, musical achievement, musical expression, and scale construction were examined to identify the factors that influence…

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

1999-05-01

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Participating AMIP Modelling Groups,; Sperber, Kenneth R.

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Marine atmospheric effects on electro-optical systems performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Juergen H.; Hughes, Herbert G.

1990-09-01

For the past twelve years, a coordinated tri-service effort has been underway in the United States Department of Defense to provide an atmospheric effects assessment capability for existing and planned electro-optical (E0) systems. This paper reviews the exploratory development effort in the US Navy. A key responsibility for the Navy was the development of marine aerosol models. An initial model, the Navy Aerosol Model (NAN), was developed, tested, and transitioned into LOWTRAN 6. A more comprehensive model, the Navy Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model (NOVAM), has been formulated and is presently undergoing comprehensive evaluation and testing. Marine aerosols and their extinction properties are only one important factor in EO systems performance assessment. For many EO systems applications, an accurate knowledge of marine background radiances is required in addition to considering the effects of the intervening atmosphere. Accordingly, a capability was developed to estimate the apparent sea surface radiance for different sea states and meteorological conditions. Also, an empirical relationship was developed which directly relates apparent mean sea temperature to calculated mean sky temperature. In situ measurements of relevant environmental parameters are essential for real-time EO systems performance assessment. Direct measurement of slant path extinction would be most desirable. This motivated a careful investigation of lidar (light detection and ranging) techniques including improvements to single-ended lidar profile inversion algorithms and development of new lidar techniques such as double-ended and dual-angle configurations. It was concluded that single-ended, single frequency lidars can not be used to infer slant path extinction with an accuracy necessary to make meaningful performance assessments. Other lidar configurations may find limited application in model validation and research efforts. No technique has emerged yet which could be considered ready for shipboard implementation. A shipboard real-time performance assessment system was developed and named PREOS (Performance and Range for EO Systems). PREOS has been incorporated into the Navy's Tactical Environmental Support System (TESS). The present version of PREOS is a first step in accomplishing the complex task of real-time systems performance assessment. Improved target and background models are under development and will be incorporated into TESS when tested and validated. A reliable assessment capability can be used to develop Tactical Decision Aids (TDAs). TDAs permit optimum selection or combination of sensors and estimation of a ship's own vulnerability against hostile systems.

Goodness of Fit of Skills Assessment Approaches: Insights from Patterns of Real vs. Synthetic Data Sets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beheshti, Behzad; Desmarais, Michel C.

2015-01-01

This study investigates the issue of the goodness of fit of different skills assessment models using both synthetic and real data. Synthetic data is generated from the different skills assessment models. The results show wide differences of performances between the skills assessment models over synthetic data sets. The set of relative performances…

Assessing for Learning: Some Dimensions Underlying New Approaches to Educational Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biggs, John

1995-01-01

Different models of performance assessment arise from interactions of three dimensions of assessment: the measurement versus the standards model of testing, quantitative and qualitative assumptions concerning the nature of learning, and whether learning and testing are situated or decontextualized. Addresses difficulties in implementing…

Abstraction of information in repository performance assessments. Examples from the SKI project Site-94

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dverstorp, B.; Andersson, J.

1995-12-01

Performance Assessment of a nuclear waste repository implies an analysis of a complex system with many interacting processes. Even if some of these processes may be known to large detail, problems arise when combining all information, and means of abstracting information from complex detailed models into models that couple different processes are needed. Clearly, one of the major objectives of performance assessment, to calculate doses or other performance indicators, implies an enormous abstraction of information compared to all information that is used as input. Other problems are that the knowledge of different parts or processes is strongly variable and adjustments,more » interpretations, are needed when combining models from different disciplines. In addition, people as well as computers, even today, always have a limited capacity to process information and choices have to be made. However, because abstraction of information clearly is unavoidable in performance assessment the validity of choices made, always need to be scrutinized and judgements made need to be updated in an iterative process.« less

A Study of Grid Resolution, Transition and Turbulence Model Using the Transonic Simple Straked Delta Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartels, Robert E.

2001-01-01

Three-dimensional transonic flow over a delta wing is investigated using several turbulence models. The performance of linear eddy viscosity models and an explicit algebraic stress model is assessed at the start of vortex flow, and the results compared with experimental data. To assess the effect of transition location, computations that either fix transition aft of the leading edge or are fully turbulent are performed. These computations show that grid resolution, transition location and turbulence model significantly affect the 3D flowfield.

Helicopter simulation validation using flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Key, D. L.; Hansen, R. S.; Cleveland, W. B.; Abbott, W. Y.

1982-01-01

A joint NASA/Army effort to perform a systematic ground-based piloted simulation validation assessment is described. The best available mathematical model for the subject helicopter (UH-60A Black Hawk) was programmed for real-time operation. Flight data were obtained to validate the math model, and to develop models for the pilot control strategy while performing mission-type tasks. The validated math model is to be combined with motion and visual systems to perform ground based simulation. Comparisons of the control strategy obtained in flight with that obtained on the simulator are to be used as the basis for assessing the fidelity of the results obtained in the simulator.

Decision Support System For Management Of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal At The Nevada Test Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shott, G.; Yucel, V.; Desotell, L.

2006-07-01

The long-term safety of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) low-level radioactive disposal facilities is assessed by conducting a performance assessment -- a systematic analysis that compares estimated risks to the public and the environment with performance objectives contained in DOE Manual 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management Manual. Before site operations, facilities design features such as final inventory, waste form characteristics, and closure cover design may be uncertain. Site operators need a modeling tool that can be used throughout the operational life of the disposal site to guide decisions regarding the acceptance of problematic waste streams, new disposal cell design, environmental monitoringmore » program design, and final site closure. In response to these needs the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office (NNSA/NSO) has developed a decision support system for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site in Frenchman Flat on the Nevada Test Site. The core of the system is a probabilistic inventory and performance assessment model implemented in the GoldSim{sup R} simulation platform. The modeling platform supports multiple graphic capabilities that allow clear documentation of the model data sources, conceptual model, mathematical implementation, and results. The combined models have the capability to estimate disposal site inventory, contaminant concentrations in environmental media, and radiological doses to members of the public engaged in various activities at multiple locations. The model allows rapid assessment and documentation of the consequences of waste management decisions using the most current site characterization information, radionuclide inventory, and conceptual model. The model is routinely used to provide annual updates of site performance, evaluate the consequences of disposal of new waste streams, develop waste concentration limits, optimize the design of new disposal cells, and assess the adequacy of environmental monitoring programs. (authors)« less

Motivation Monitoring and Assessment Extension for Input-Process-Outcome Game Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ghergulescu, Ioana; Muntean, Cristina Hava

2014-01-01

This article proposes a Motivation Assessment-oriented Input-Process-Outcome Game Model (MotIPO), which extends the Input-Process-Outcome game model with game-centred and player-centred motivation assessments performed right from the beginning of the game-play. A feasibility case-study involving 67 participants playing an educational game and…

Co-Constructional Task Analysis: Moving beyond Adult-Based Models to Assess Young Children's Task Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Scott Weng Fai

2013-01-01

The assessment of young children's thinking competence in task performances has typically followed the novice-to-expert regimen involving models of strategies that adults use when engaged in cognitive tasks such as problem-solving and decision-making. Socio-constructivists argue for a balanced pedagogical approach between the adult and child that…

Accounting for regional variation in both natural environment and human disturbance to improve performance of multimetric indices of lotic benthic diatoms.

PubMed

Tang, Tao; Stevenson, R Jan; Infante, Dana M

2016-10-15

Regional variation in both natural environment and human disturbance can influence performance of ecological assessments. In this study we calculated 5 types of benthic diatom multimetric indices (MMIs) with 3 different approaches to account for variation in ecological assessments. We used: site groups defined by ecoregions or diatom typologies; the same or different sets of metrics among site groups; and unmodeled or modeled MMIs, where models accounted for natural variation in metrics within site groups by calculating an expected reference condition for each metric and each site. We used data from the USEPA's National Rivers and Streams Assessment to calculate the MMIs and evaluate changes in MMI performance. MMI performance was evaluated with indices of precision, bias, responsiveness, sensitivity and relevancy which were respectively measured as MMI variation among reference sites, effects of natural variables on MMIs, difference between MMIs at reference and highly disturbed sites, percent of highly disturbed sites properly classified, and relation of MMIs to human disturbance and stressors. All 5 types of MMIs showed considerable discrimination ability. Using different metrics among ecoregions sometimes reduced precision, but it consistently increased responsiveness, sensitivity, and relevancy. Site specific metric modeling reduced bias and increased responsiveness. Combined use of different metrics among site groups and site specific modeling significantly improved MMI performance irrespective of site grouping approach. Compared to ecoregion site classification, grouping sites based on diatom typologies improved precision, but did not improve overall performance of MMIs if we accounted for natural variation in metrics with site specific models. We conclude that using different metrics among ecoregions and site specific metric modeling improve MMI performance, particularly when used together. Applications of these MMI approaches in ecological assessments introduced a tradeoff with assessment consistency when metrics differed across site groups, but they justified the convenient and consistent use of ecoregions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dataset of two experiments of the application of gamified peer assessment model into online learning environment MeuTutor.

PubMed

Tenório, Thyago; Bittencourt, Ig Ibert; Isotani, Seiji; Pedro, Alan; Ospina, Patrícia; Tenório, Daniel

2017-06-01

In this dataset, we present the collected data of two experiments with the application of the gamified peer assessment model into online learning environment MeuTutor to allow the comparison of the obtained results with others proposed models. MeuTutor is an intelligent tutoring system aims to monitor the learning of the students in a personalized way, ensuring quality education and improving the performance of its members (Tenório et al., 2016) [1]. The first experiment evaluated the effectiveness of the peer assessment model through metrics as final grade (result), time to correct the activities and associated costs. The second experiment evaluated the gamification influence into peer assessment model, analyzing metrics as access number (logins), number of performed activities and number of performed corrections. In this article, we present in table form for each metric: the raw data of each treatment; the summarized data; the application results of the normality test Shapiro-Wilk; the application results of the statistical tests T -Test and/or Wilcoxon. The presented data in this article are related to the article entitled "A gamified peer assessment model for on-line learning environments in a competitive context" (Tenório et al., 2016) [1].

A modified F-test for evaluating model performance by including both experimental and simulation uncertainties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Experimental and simulation uncertainties have not been included in many of the statistics used in assessing agricultural model performance. The objectives of this study were to develop an F-test that can be used to evaluate model performance considering experimental and simulation uncertainties, an...

Measuring nursing competencies in the operating theatre: instrument development and psychometric analysis using Item Response Theory.

PubMed

Nicholson, Patricia; Griffin, Patrick; Gillis, Shelley; Wu, Margaret; Dunning, Trisha

2013-09-01

Concern about the process of identifying underlying competencies that contribute to effective nursing performance has been debated with a lack of consensus surrounding an approved measurement instrument for assessing clinical performance. Although a number of methodologies are noted in the development of competency-based assessment measures, these studies are not without criticism. The primary aim of the study was to develop and validate a Performance Based Scoring Rubric, which included both analytical and holistic scales. The aim included examining the validity and reliability of the rubric, which was designed to measure clinical competencies in the operating theatre. The fieldwork observations of 32 nurse educators and preceptors assessing the performance of 95 instrument nurses in the operating theatre were used in the calibration of the rubric. The Rasch model, a particular model among Item Response Models, was used in the calibration of each item in the rubric in an attempt at improving the measurement properties of the scale. This is done by establishing the 'fit' of the data to the conditions demanded by the Rasch model. Acceptable reliability estimates, specifically a high Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient (0.940), as well as empirical support for construct and criterion validity for the rubric were achieved. Calibration of the Performance Based Scoring Rubric using Rasch model revealed that the fit statistics for most items were acceptable. The use of the Rasch model offers a number of features in developing and refining healthcare competency-based assessments, improving confidence in measuring clinical performance. The Rasch model was shown to be useful in developing and validating a competency-based assessment for measuring the competence of the instrument nurse in the operating theatre with implications for use in other areas of nursing practice. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction.

PubMed

Mistry, Hitesh B

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model B net was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the B net model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

Sidney Blatt's Contributions to Personality Assessment.

PubMed

Auerbach, John S

2016-01-01

Over a long, distinguished career, Sidney Blatt contributed to theory and research in personality development, personality assessment, and psychotherapy. Best known for his 2-configurations model of personality and author or co-author of more than 250 articles and 18 books and monographs, Blatt was also a master clinician, a psychoanalyst who was awarded the 1989 Bruno J. Klopfer Award by the Society for Personality Assessment (SPA) for his contributions to both self-report and performance-based assessment. He was also the president of SPA from 1984 to 1986. This special series contains papers by writers who participated in all aspects of Blatt's contributions to personality assessment, both self-report and performance-based. Topics covered include Blatt's 2-configurations model of personality, development, and psychopathology; boundary disturbance and psychosis in performance-based assessment; the interaction of gender and personality on narrative assessments; and the Object Relations Inventory and differentiation relatedness, especially as these relate to therapeutic outcome.

The development and testing of a skin tear risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Newall, Nelly; Lewin, Gill F; Bulsara, Max K; Carville, Keryln J; Leslie, Gavin D; Roberts, Pam A

2017-02-01

The aim of the present study is to develop a reliable and valid skin tear risk assessment tool. The six characteristics identified in a previous case control study as constituting the best risk model for skin tear development were used to construct a risk assessment tool. The ability of the tool to predict skin tear development was then tested in a prospective study. Between August 2012 and September 2013, 1466 tertiary hospital patients were assessed at admission and followed up for 10 days to see if they developed a skin tear. The predictive validity of the tool was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. When the tool was found not to have performed as well as hoped, secondary analyses were performed to determine whether a potentially better performing risk model could be identified. The tool was found to have high sensitivity but low specificity and therefore have inadequate predictive validity. Secondary analysis of the combined data from this and the previous case control study identified an alternative better performing risk model. The tool developed and tested in this study was found to have inadequate predictive validity. The predictive validity of an alternative, more parsimonious model now needs to be tested. © 2015 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope: Structural-Thermal-Optical Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, John D.; Howard, Joseph M.; Mosier, Gary E.; Parrish, Keith A.; McGinnis, Mark A.; Bluth, Marcel; Kim, Kevin; Ha, Kong Q.

2004-01-01

The James Web Space Telescope (JWST) is a large, infrared-optimized space telescope scheduled for launch in 2011. This is a continuation of a series of papers on modeling activities for JWST. The structural-thermal-optical, often referred to as STOP, analysis process is used to predict the effect of thermal distortion on optical performance. The benchmark STOP analysis for JWST assesses the effect of an observatory slew on wavefront error. Temperatures predicted using geometric and thermal math models are mapped to a structural finite element model in order to predict thermally induced deformations. Motions and deformations at optical surfaces are then input to optical models, and optical performance is predicted using either an optical ray trace or a linear optical analysis tool. In addition to baseline performance predictions, a process for performing sensitivity studies to assess modeling uncertainties is described.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gissi, Andrea; Dipartimento di Farmacia – Scienze del Farmaco, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro”, Via E. Orabona 4, 70125 Bari; Lombardo, Anna

The bioconcentration factor (BCF) is an important bioaccumulation hazard assessment metric in many regulatory contexts. Its assessment is required by the REACH regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals) and by CLP (Classification, Labeling and Packaging). We challenged nine well-known and widely used BCF QSAR models against 851 compounds stored in an ad-hoc created database. The goodness of the regression analysis was assessed by considering the determination coefficient (R{sup 2}) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE); Cooper's statistics and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC) were calculated for all the thresholds relevant for regulatory purposes (i.e. 100 L/kg for Chemicalmore » Safety Assessment; 500 L/kg for Classification and Labeling; 2000 and 5000 L/kg for Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic (PBT) and very Persistent, very Bioaccumulative (vPvB) assessment) to assess the classification, with particular attention to the models' ability to control the occurrence of false negatives. As a first step, statistical analysis was performed for the predictions of the entire dataset; R{sup 2}>0.70 was obtained using CORAL, T.E.S.T. and EPISuite Arnot–Gobas models. As classifiers, ACD and log P-based equations were the best in terms of sensitivity, ranging from 0.75 to 0.94. External compound predictions were carried out for the models that had their own training sets. CORAL model returned the best performance (R{sup 2}{sub ext}=0.59), followed by the EPISuite Meylan model (R{sup 2}{sub ext}=0.58). The latter gave also the highest sensitivity on external compounds with values from 0.55 to 0.85, depending on the thresholds. Statistics were also compiled for compounds falling into the models Applicability Domain (AD), giving better performances. In this respect, VEGA CAESAR was the best model in terms of regression (R{sup 2}=0.94) and classification (average sensitivity>0.80). This model also showed the best regression (R{sup 2}=0.85) and sensitivity (average>0.70) for new compounds in the AD but not present in the training set. However, no single optimal model exists and, thus, it would be wise a case-by-case assessment. Yet, integrating the wealth of information from multiple models remains the winner approach. - Highlights: • REACH encourages the use of in silico methods in the assessment of chemicals safety. • The performances of nine BCF models were evaluated on a benchmark database of 851 chemicals. • We compared the models on the basis of both regression and classification performance. • Statistics on chemicals out of the training set and/or within the applicability domain were compiled. • The results show that QSAR models are useful as weight-of-evidence in support to other methods.« less

Teams make it work: how team work engagement mediates between social resources and performance in teams.

PubMed

Torrente, Pedro; Salanova, Marisa; Llorens, Susana; Schaufeli, Wilmar B

2012-02-01

In this study we analyze the mediating role of team work engagement between team social resources (i.e., supportive team climate, coordination, teamwork), and team performance (i.e., in-role and extra-role performance) as predicted by the Job Demands-Resources Model. Aggregated data of 533 employees nested within 62 teams and 13 organizations were used, whereas team performance was assessed by supervisor ratings. Structural equation modeling revealed that, as expected, team work engagement plays a mediating role between social resources perceived at the team level and team performance as assessed by the supervisor.

A model for evaluating the social performance of construction waste management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan Hongping, E-mail: hpyuan2005@gmail.com

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Scant attention is paid to social performance of construction waste management (CWM). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We develop a model for assessing the social performance of CWM. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer With the model, the social performance of CWM can be quantitatively simulated. - Abstract: It has been determined by existing literature that a lot of research efforts have been made to the economic performance of construction waste management (CWM), but less attention is paid to investigation of the social performance of CWM. This study therefore attempts to develop a model for quantitatively evaluating the social performance of CWM by using a system dynamicsmore » (SD) approach. Firstly, major variables affecting the social performance of CWM are identified and a holistic system for assessing the social performance of CWM is formulated in line with feedback relationships underlying these variables. The developed system is then converted into a SD model through the software iThink. An empirical case study is finally conducted to demonstrate application of the model. Results of model validation indicate that the model is robust and reasonable to reflect the situation of the real system under study. Findings of the case study offer helpful insights into effectively promoting the social performance of CWM of the project investigated. Furthermore, the model exhibits great potential to function as an experimental platform for dynamically evaluating effects of management measures on improving the social performance of CWM of construction projects.« less

Assessment of Template-Based Modeling of Protein Structure in CASP11

PubMed Central

Modi, Vivek; Xu, Qifang; Adhikari, Sam; Dunbrack, Roland L.

2016-01-01

We present the assessment of predictions submitted in the template-based modeling (TBM) category of CASP11 (Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction). Model quality was judged on the basis of global and local measures of accuracy on all atoms including side chains. The top groups on 39 human-server targets based on model 1 predictions were LEER, Zhang, LEE, MULTICOM, and Zhang-Server. The top groups on 81 targets by server groups based on model 1 predictions were Zhang-Server, nns, BAKER-ROSETTASERVER, QUARK, and myprotein-me. In CASP11, the best models for most targets were equal to or better than the best template available in the Protein Data Bank, even for targets with poor templates. The overall performance in CASP11 is similar to the performance of predictors in CASP10 with slightly better performance on the hardest targets. For most targets, assessment measures exhibited bimodal probability density distributions. Multi-dimensional scaling of an RMSD matrix for each target typically revealed a single cluster with models similar to the target structure, with a mode in the GDT-TS density between 40 and 90, and a wide distribution of models highly divergent from each other and from the experimental structure, with density mode at a GDT-TS value of ~20. The models in this peak in the density were either compact models with entirely the wrong fold, or highly non-compact models. The results argue for a density-driven approach in future CASP TBM assessments that accounts for the bimodal nature of these distributions instead of Z-scores, which assume a unimodal, Gaussian distribution. PMID:27081927

EVALUATION OF THE HTA CORE MODEL FOR NATIONAL HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT REPORTS: COMPARATIVE STUDY AND EXPERIENCES FROM EUROPEAN COUNTRIES.

PubMed

Kõrge, Kristina; Berndt, Nadine; Hohmann, Juergen; Romano, Florence; Hiligsmann, Mickael

2017-01-01

The health technology assessment (HTA) Core Model® is a tool for defining and standardizing the elements of HTA analyses within several domains for producing structured reports. This study explored the parallels between the Core Model and a national HTA report. Experiences from various European HTA agencies were also investigated to determine the Core Model's adaptability to national reports. A comparison between a national report on Genetic Counseling, produced by the Cellule d'expertise médicale Luxembourg, and the Core Model was performed to identify parallels in terms of relevant and comparable assessment elements (AEs). Semi-structured interviews with five representatives from European HTA agencies were performed to assess their user experiences with the Core Model. The comparative study revealed that 50 percent of the total number (n = 144) of AEs in the Core Model were relevant for the national report. Of these 144 AEs from the Core Model, 34 (24 percent) were covered in the national report. Some AEs were covered only partly. The interviewees emphasized flexibility in using the Core Model and stated that the most important aspects to be evaluated include characteristics of the disease and technology, clinical effectiveness, economic aspects, and safety. In the present study, the national report covered an acceptable number of AEs of the Core Model. These results need to be interpreted with caution because only one comparison was performed. The Core Model can be used in a flexible manner, applying only those elements that are relevant from the perspective of the technology assessment and specific country context.

Standardized reporting for rapid relative effectiveness assessments of pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Kleijnen, Sarah; Pasternack, Iris; Van de Casteele, Marc; Rossi, Bernardette; Cangini, Agnese; Di Bidino, Rossella; Jelenc, Marjetka; Abrishami, Payam; Autti-Rämö, Ilona; Seyfried, Hans; Wildbacher, Ingrid; Goettsch, Wim G

2014-11-01

Many European countries perform rapid assessments of the relative effectiveness (RE) of pharmaceuticals as part of the reimbursement decision making process. Increased sharing of information on RE across countries may save costs and reduce duplication of work. The objective of this article is to describe the development of a tool for rapid assessment of RE of new pharmaceuticals that enter the market, the HTA Core Model® for Rapid Relative Effectiveness Assessment (REA) of Pharmaceuticals. Eighteen member organisations of the European Network of Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA) participated in the development of the model. Different versions of the model were developed and piloted in this collaboration and adjusted accordingly based on feedback on the content and feasibility of the model. The final model deviates from the traditional HTA Core Model® used for assessing other types of technologies. This is due to the limited scope (strong focus on RE), the timing of the assessment (just after market authorisation), and strict timelines (e.g. 90 days) required for performing the assessment. The number of domains and assessment elements was limited and it was decided that the primary information sources should preferably be a submission file provided by the marketing authorisation holder and the European Public Assessment Report. The HTA Core Model® for Rapid REA (version 3.0) was developed to produce standardised transparent RE information of pharmaceuticals. Further piloting can provide input for possible improvements, such as further refining the assessment elements and new methodological guidance on relevant areas.

Note on Professor Sizer's Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balderston, Frederick E.

1979-01-01

Issues suggested by John Sizer's paper, an overview of the assessment of institutional performance, include: the efficient-frontier approach, multiple-criterion decision-making models, performance analysis approached as path analysis, and assessment of academic quality. (JMD)

A Better Leveled Playing Field for Assessing Satisfactory Job Performance of Superintendents on the Basis of High-Stakes Testing Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, I. Phillip; Cox, Edward P.; Buckman, David G.

2014-01-01

To assess satisfactory job performance of superintendents on the basis of school districts' high-stakes testing outcomes, existing teacher models were reviewed and critiqued as potential options for retrofit. For these models, specific problems were identified relative to the choice of referent groups. An alternate referent group (statewide…

Modeling the Psychometric Properties of Complex Performance Assessment Tasks Using Confirmatory Factor Analysis: A Multistage Model for Calibrating Tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahraman, Nilufer; De Champlain, Andre; Raymond, Mark

2012-01-01

Item-level information, such as difficulty and discrimination are invaluable to the test assembly, equating, and scoring practices. Estimating these parameters within the context of large-scale performance assessments is often hindered by the use of unbalanced designs for assigning examinees to tasks and raters because such designs result in very…

An analysis of mathematical connection ability based on student learning style on visualization auditory kinesthetic (VAK) learning model with self-assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apipah, S.; Kartono; Isnarto

2018-03-01

This research aims to analyze the quality of VAK learning with self-assessment toward the ability of mathematical connection performed by students and to analyze students’ mathematical connection ability based on learning styles in VAK learning model with self-assessment. This research applies mixed method type with concurrent embedded design. The subject of this research consists of VIII grade students from State Junior High School 9 Semarang who apply visual learning style, auditory learning style, and kinesthetic learning style. The data of learning style is collected by using questionnaires, the data of mathematical connection ability is collected by performing tests, and the data of self-assessment is collected by using assessment sheets. The quality of learning is qualitatively valued from planning stage, realization stage, and valuation stage. The result of mathematical connection ability test is analyzed quantitatively by mean test, conducting completeness test, mean differentiation test, and mean proportional differentiation test. The result of the research shows that VAK learning model results in well-qualified learning regarded from qualitative and quantitative sides. Students with visual learning style perform the highest mathematical connection ability, students with kinesthetic learning style perform average mathematical connection ability, and students with auditory learning style perform the lowest mathematical connection ability.

Uncertainty quantification's role in modeling and simulation planning, and credibility assessment through the predictive capability maturity model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rider, William J.; Witkowski, Walter R.; Mousseau, Vincent Andrew

2016-04-13

The importance of credible, trustworthy numerical simulations is obvious especially when using the results for making high-consequence decisions. Determining the credibility of such numerical predictions is much more difficult and requires a systematic approach to assessing predictive capability, associated uncertainties and overall confidence in the computational simulation process for the intended use of the model. This process begins with an evaluation of the computational modeling of the identified, important physics of the simulation for its intended use. This is commonly done through a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT). Then an assessment of the evidence basis supporting the ability to computationallymore » simulate these physics can be performed using various frameworks such as the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM). There were several critical activities that follow in the areas of code and solution verification, validation and uncertainty quantification, which will be described in detail in the following sections. Here, we introduce the subject matter for general applications but specifics are given for the failure prediction project. In addition, the first task that must be completed in the verification & validation procedure is to perform a credibility assessment to fully understand the requirements and limitations of the current computational simulation capability for the specific application intended use. The PIRT and PCMM are tools used at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to provide a consistent manner to perform such an assessment. Ideally, all stakeholders should be represented and contribute to perform an accurate credibility assessment. PIRTs and PCMMs are both described in brief detail below and the resulting assessments for an example project are given.« less

Communication of Expectations between Principals and Entry-Year Instrumental Music Teachers: Implications for Music Teacher Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edgar, Scott

2012-01-01

Assessment of arts educators, including music educators, has evolved into a high-stakes situation that drives teacher pay, promotion, and retention. This assessment process is driven by federal policy advocating for a value-added model based on student performance. Principals, who are often charged with assessing artistic musical performance,…

Empirical evaluation of spatial and non-spatial European-scale multimedia fate models: results and implications for chemical risk assessment.

PubMed

Armitage, James M; Cousins, Ian T; Hauck, Mara; Harbers, Jasper V; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2007-06-01

Multimedia environmental fate models are commonly-applied tools for assessing the fate and distribution of contaminants in the environment. Owing to the large number of chemicals in use and the paucity of monitoring data, such models are often adopted as part of decision-support systems for chemical risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of three multimedia environmental fate models (spatially- and non-spatially-explicit) at a European scale. The assessment was conducted for four polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and compared predicted and median observed concentrations using monitoring data collected for air, water, sediments and soils. Model performance in the air compartment was reasonable for all models included in the evaluation exercise as predicted concentrations were typically within a factor of 3 of the median observed concentrations. Furthermore, there was good correspondence between predictions and observations in regions that had elevated median observed concentrations for both spatially-explicit models. On the other hand, all three models consistently underestimated median observed concentrations in sediment and soil by 1-3 orders of magnitude. Although regions with elevated median observed concentrations in these environmental media were broadly identified by the spatially-explicit models, the magnitude of the discrepancy between predicted and median observed concentrations is of concern in the context of chemical risk assessment. These results were discussed in terms of factors influencing model performance such as the steady-state assumption, inaccuracies in emission estimates and the representativeness of monitoring data.

United3D: a protein model quality assessment program that uses two consensus based methods.

PubMed

Terashi, Genki; Oosawa, Makoto; Nakamura, Yuuki; Kanou, Kazuhiko; Takeda-Shitaka, Mayuko

2012-01-01

In protein structure prediction, such as template-based modeling and free modeling (ab initio modeling), the step that assesses the quality of protein models is very important. We have developed a model quality assessment (QA) program United3D that uses an optimized clustering method and a simple Cα atom contact-based potential. United3D automatically estimates the quality scores (Qscore) of predicted protein models that are highly correlated with the actual quality (GDT_TS). The performance of United3D was tested in the ninth Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP9) experiment. In CASP9, United3D showed the lowest average loss of GDT_TS (5.3) among the QA methods participated in CASP9. This result indicates that the performance of United3D to identify the high quality models from the models predicted by CASP9 servers on 116 targets was best among the QA methods that were tested in CASP9. United3D also produced high average Pearson correlation coefficients (0.93) and acceptable Kendall rank correlation coefficients (0.68) between the Qscore and GDT_TS. This performance was competitive with the other top ranked QA methods that were tested in CASP9. These results indicate that United3D is a useful tool for selecting high quality models from many candidate model structures provided by various modeling methods. United3D will improve the accuracy of protein structure prediction.

A resistive mesh phantom for assessing the performance of EIT systems.

PubMed

Gagnon, Hervé; Cousineau, Martin; Adler, Andy; Hartinger, Alzbeta E

2010-09-01

Assessing the performance of electrical impedance tomography (EIT) systems usually requires a phantom for validation, calibration, or comparison purposes. This paper describes a resistive mesh phantom to assess the performance of EIT systems while taking into account cabling stray effects similar to in vivo conditions. This phantom is built with 340 precision resistors on a printed circuit board representing a 2-D circular homogeneous medium. It also integrates equivalent electrical models of the Ag/AgCl electrode impedances. The parameters of the electrode models were fitted from impedance curves measured with an impedance analyzer. The technique used to build the phantom is general and applicable to phantoms of arbitrary shape and conductivity distribution. We describe three performance indicators that can be measured with our phantom for every measurement of an EIT data frame: SNR, accuracy, and modeling accuracy. These performance indicators were evaluated on our EIT system under different frame rates and applied current intensities. The performance indicators are dependent on frame rate, operating frequency, applied current intensity, measurement strategy, and intermodulation distortion when performing simultaneous measurements at several frequencies. These parameter values should, therefore, always be specified when reporting performance indicators to better appreciate their significance.

Peer assessment of aviation performance: inconsistent for good reasons.

PubMed

Roth, Wolff-Michael; Mavin, Timothy J

2015-03-01

Research into expertise is relatively common in cognitive science concerning expertise existing across many domains. However, much less research has examined how experts within the same domain assess the performance of their peer experts. We report the results of a modified think-aloud study conducted with 18 pilots (6 first officers, 6 captains, and 6 flight examiners). Pairs of same-ranked pilots were asked to rate the performance of a captain flying in a critical pre-recorded simulator scenario. Findings reveal (a) considerable variance within performance categories, (b) differences in the process used as evidence in support of a performance rating, (c) different numbers and types of facts (cues) identified, and (d) differences in how specific performance events affect choice of performance category and gravity of performance assessment. Such variance is consistent with low inter-rater reliability. Because raters exhibited good, albeit imprecise, reasons and facts, a fuzzy mathematical model of performance rating was developed. The model provides good agreement with observed variations. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Three Reflections on Assessing Safety Training Needs: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sleezer, Catherine M.; Kelsey, Kathleen D.; Wood, Thomas E.

2008-01-01

Needs assessment plays an important role in training and human performance improvement efforts, but the literature contains little research on this topic. This study extended previous research on the Performance Analysis for Training (PAT) model of needs assessment by examining its implementation to determine environmental and occupational health…

A Study of Wind Turbine Comprehensive Operational Assessment Model Based on EM-PCA Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Minqiang; Xu, Bin; Zhan, Yangyan; Ren, Danyuan; Liu, Dexing

2018-01-01

To assess wind turbine performance accurately and provide theoretical basis for wind farm management, a hybrid assessment model based on Entropy Method and Principle Component Analysis (EM-PCA) was established, which took most factors of operational performance into consideration and reach to a comprehensive result. To verify the model, six wind turbines were chosen as the research objects, the ranking obtained by the method proposed in the paper were 4#>6#>1#>5#>2#>3#, which are completely in conformity with the theoretical ranking, which indicates that the reliability and effectiveness of the EM-PCA method are high. The method could give guidance for processing unit state comparison among different units and launching wind farm operational assessment.

HRST architecture modeling and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comstock, Douglas A.

1997-01-01

This paper presents work supporting the assessment of advanced concept options for the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) study. It describes the development of computer models as the basis for creating an integrated capability to evaluate the economic feasibility and sustainability of a variety of system architectures. It summarizes modeling capabilities for use on the HRST study to perform sensitivity analysis of alternative architectures (consisting of different combinations of highly reusable vehicles, launch assist systems, and alternative operations and support concepts) in terms of cost, schedule, performance, and demand. In addition, the identification and preliminary assessment of alternative market segments for HRST applications, such as space manufacturing, space tourism, etc., is described. Finally, the development of an initial prototype model that can begin to be used for modeling alternative HRST concepts at the system level is presented.

A novel integrated assessment methodology of urban water reuse.

PubMed

Listowski, A; Ngo, H H; Guo, W S; Vigneswaran, S

2011-01-01

Wastewater is no longer considered a waste product and water reuse needs to play a stronger part in securing urban water supply. Although treatment technologies for water reclamation have significantly improved the question that deserves further analysis is, how selection of a particular wastewater treatment technology relates to performance and sustainability? The proposed assessment model integrates; (i) technology, characterised by selected quantity and quality performance parameters; (ii) productivity, efficiency and reliability criteria; (iii) quantitative performance indicators; (iv) development of evaluation model. The challenges related to hierarchy and selections of performance indicators have been resolved through the case study analysis. The goal of this study is to validate a new assessment methodology in relation to performance of the microfiltration (MF) technology, a key element of the treatment process. Specific performance data and measurements were obtained at specific Control and Data Acquisition Points (CP) to satisfy the input-output inventory in relation to water resources, products, material flows, energy requirements, chemicals use, etc. Performance assessment process contains analysis and necessary linking across important parametric functions leading to reliable outcomes and results.

Framework for assessing key variable dependencies in loose-abrasive grinding and polishing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, J.S.; Aikens, D.M.; Brown, N.J.

1995-12-01

This memo describes a framework for identifying all key variables that determine the figuring performance of loose-abrasive lapping and polishing machines. This framework is intended as a tool for prioritizing R&D issues, assessing the completeness of process models and experimental data, and for providing a mechanism to identify any assumptions in analytical models or experimental procedures. Future plans for preparing analytical models or performing experiments can refer to this framework in establishing the context of the work.

ASSESSMENT OF TWO PHYSICALLY BASED WATERSHED MODELS BASED ON THEIR PERFORMANCES OF SIMULATING SEDIMENT MOVEMENT OVER SMALL WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract: Two physically based and deterministic models, CASC2-D and KINEROS are evaluated and compared for their performances on modeling sediment movement on a small agricultural watershed over several events. Each model has different conceptualization of a watershed. CASC...

ASSESSMENT OF TWO PHYSICALLY-BASED WATERSHED MODELS BASED ON THEIR PERFORMANCES OF SIMULATING WATER AND SEDIMENT MOVEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Two physically based watershed models, GSSHA and KINEROS-2 are evaluated and compared for their performances on modeling flow and sediment movement. Each model has a different watershed conceptualization. GSSHA divides the watershed into cells, and flow and sediments are routed t...

Conceptual Modeling Framework for E-Area PA HELP Infiltration Model Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dyer, J. A.

A conceptual modeling framework based on the proposed E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) closure cap design is presented for conducting Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model simulations of intact and subsided cap infiltration scenarios for the next E-Area Performance Assessment (PA).

The non-linear response of a muscle in transverse compression: assessment of geometry influence using a finite element model.

PubMed

Gras, Laure-Lise; Mitton, David; Crevier-Denoix, Nathalie; Laporte, Sébastien

2012-01-01

Most recent finite element models that represent muscles are generic or subject-specific models that use complex, constitutive laws. Identification of the parameters of such complex, constitutive laws could be an important limit for subject-specific approaches. The aim of this study was to assess the possibility of modelling muscle behaviour in compression with a parametric model and a simple, constitutive law. A quasi-static compression test was performed on the muscles of dogs. A parametric finite element model was designed using a linear, elastic, constitutive law. A multi-variate analysis was performed to assess the effects of geometry on muscle response. An inverse method was used to define Young's modulus. The non-linear response of the muscles was obtained using a subject-specific geometry and a linear elastic law. Thus, a simple muscle model can be used to have a bio-faithful, biomechanical response.

Network Performance Evaluation Model for assessing the impacts of high-occupancy vehicle facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janson, B.N.; Zozaya-Gorostiza, C.; Southworth, F.

1986-09-01

A model to assess the impacts of major high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) facilities on regional levels of energy consumption and vehicle air pollution emissions in urban aeas is developed and applied. This model can be used to forecast and compare the impacts of alternative HOV facility design and operation plans on traffic patterns, travel costs, model choice, travel demand, energy consumption and vehicle emissions. The model is designed to show differences in the overall impacts of alternative HOV facility types, locations and operation plans rather than to serve as a tool for detailed engineering design and traffic planning studies. The Networkmore » Performance Evaluation Model (NETPEM) combines several urban transportation planning models within a multi-modal network equilibrium framework including modules with which to define the type, location and use policy of the HOV facility to be tested, and to assess the impacts of this facility.« less

Evaluation of atmospheric nitrogen deposition model performance in the context of U.S. critical load assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Jason J.; Chung, Serena H.; Johansen, Anne M.; Lamb, Brian K.; Vaughan, Joseph K.; Beutel, Marc

2017-02-01

Air quality models are widely used to estimate pollutant deposition rates and thereby calculate critical loads and critical load exceedances (model deposition > critical load). However, model operational performance is not always quantified specifically to inform these applications. We developed a performance assessment approach designed to inform critical load and exceedance calculations, and applied it to the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. We quantified wet inorganic N deposition performance of several widely-used air quality models, including five different Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) simulations, the Tdep model, and 'PRISM x NTN' model. Modeled wet inorganic N deposition estimates were compared to wet inorganic N deposition measurements at 16 National Trends Network (NTN) monitoring sites, and to annual bulk inorganic N deposition measurements at Mount Rainier National Park. Model bias (model - observed) and error (|model - observed|) were expressed as a percentage of regional critical load values for diatoms and lichens. This novel approach demonstrated that wet inorganic N deposition bias in the Pacific Northwest approached or exceeded 100% of regional diatom and lichen critical load values at several individual monitoring sites, and approached or exceeded 50% of critical loads when averaged regionally. Even models that adjusted deposition estimates based on deposition measurements to reduce bias or that spatially-interpolated measurement data, had bias that approached or exceeded critical loads at some locations. While wet inorganic N deposition model bias is only one source of uncertainty that can affect critical load and exceedance calculations, results demonstrate expressing bias as a percentage of critical loads at a spatial scale consistent with calculations may be a useful exercise for those performing calculations. It may help decide if model performance is adequate for a particular calculation, help assess confidence in calculation results, and highlight cases where a non-deterministic approach may be needed.

Introduction and Assessment of a Blended-Learning Model to Teach Patient Assessment in a Doctor of Pharmacy Program

PubMed Central

Woodruff, Ashley; Prescott, Gina M.; Albanese, Nicole; Bernhardi, Christian; Doloresco, Fred

2016-01-01

Objective. To integrate a blended-learning model into a two-course patient assessment sequence in a doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) program and to assess the academic performance and perceptions of enrolled students. Design. A blended-learning model consisting of a flipped classroom format was integrated into a patient assessment (PA) course sequence. Course grades of students in the blended-learning (intervention) and traditional-classroom (control) groups were compared. A survey was administered to assess student perceptions. Assessment. The mean numeric grades of students in the intervention group were higher than those of students in the traditional group (PA1 course: 92.2±3.1 vs 90.0±4.3; and PA2 course: 90.3±4.9 vs 85.8±4.2). Eighty-six percent of the students in the intervention group agreed that the instructional methodologies used in this course facilitated understanding of the material. Conclusion. The blended-learning model was associated with improved academic performance and was well-received by students. PMID:28179725

Introduction and Assessment of a Blended-Learning Model to Teach Patient Assessment in a Doctor of Pharmacy Program.

PubMed

Prescott, William Allan; Woodruff, Ashley; Prescott, Gina M; Albanese, Nicole; Bernhardi, Christian; Doloresco, Fred

2016-12-25

Objective. To integrate a blended-learning model into a two-course patient assessment sequence in a doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) program and to assess the academic performance and perceptions of enrolled students. Design. A blended-learning model consisting of a flipped classroom format was integrated into a patient assessment (PA) course sequence. Course grades of students in the blended-learning (intervention) and traditional-classroom (control) groups were compared. A survey was administered to assess student perceptions. Assessment. The mean numeric grades of students in the intervention group were higher than those of students in the traditional group (PA1 course: 92.2±3.1 vs 90.0±4.3; and PA2 course: 90.3±4.9 vs 85.8±4.2). Eighty-six percent of the students in the intervention group agreed that the instructional methodologies used in this course facilitated understanding of the material. Conclusion. The blended-learning model was associated with improved academic performance and was well-received by students.

Achievement Goals and Achievement Emotions: Testing a Model of Their Joint Relations with Academic Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pekrun, Reinhard; Elliot, Andrew J.; Maier, Markus A.

2009-01-01

The authors propose a theoretical model linking achievement goals and achievement emotions to academic performance. This model was tested in a prospective study with undergraduates (N = 213), using exam-specific assessments of both goals and emotions as predictors of exam performance in an introductory-level psychology course. The findings were…

Application of process mining to assess the data quality of routinely collected time-based performance data sourced from electronic health records by validating process conformance.

PubMed

Perimal-Lewis, Lua; Teubner, David; Hakendorf, Paul; Horwood, Chris

2016-12-01

Effective and accurate use of routinely collected health data to produce Key Performance Indicator reporting is dependent on the underlying data quality. In this research, Process Mining methodology and tools were leveraged to assess the data quality of time-based Emergency Department data sourced from electronic health records. This research was done working closely with the domain experts to validate the process models. The hospital patient journey model was used to assess flow abnormalities which resulted from incorrect timestamp data used in time-based performance metrics. The research demonstrated process mining as a feasible methodology to assess data quality of time-based hospital performance metrics. The insight gained from this research enabled appropriate corrective actions to be put in place to address the data quality issues. © The Author(s) 2015.

A theoretical framework to describe communication processes during medical disability assessment interviews

PubMed Central

van Rijssen, H Jolanda; Schellart, Antonius JM; Anema, Johannes R; van der Beek, Allard J

2009-01-01

Background Research in different fields of medicine suggests that communication is important in physician-patient encounters and influences satisfaction with these encounters. It is argued that this also applies to the non-curative tasks that physicians perform, such as sickness certification and medical disability assessments. However, there is no conceptualised theoretical framework that can be used to describe intentions with regard to communication behaviour, communication behaviour itself, and satisfaction with communication behaviour in a medical disability assessment context. Objective The objective of this paper is to describe the conceptualisation of a model for the communication behaviour of physicians performing medical disability assessments in a social insurance context and of their claimants, in face-to-face encounters during medical disability assessment interviews and the preparation thereof. Conceptualisation The behavioural model, based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), is conceptualised for the communication behaviour of social insurance physicians and claimants separately, but also combined during the assessment interview. Other important concepts in the model are the evaluation of communication behaviour (satisfaction), intentions, attitudes, skills, and barriers for communication. Conclusion The conceptualisation of the TPB-based behavioural model will help to provide insight into the communication behaviour of social insurance physicians and claimants during disability assessment interviews. After empirical testing of the relationships in the model, it can be used in other studies to obtain more insight into communication behaviour in non-curative medicine, and it could help social insurance physicians to adapt their communication behaviour to their task when performing disability assessments. PMID:19807905

Health, safety and environmental unit performance assessment model under uncertainty (case study: steel industry).

PubMed

Shamaii, Azin; Omidvari, Manouchehr; Lotfi, Farhad Hosseinzadeh

2017-01-01

Performance assessment is a critical objective of management systems. As a result of the non-deterministic and qualitative nature of performance indicators, assessments are likely to be influenced by evaluators' personal judgments. Furthermore, in developing countries, performance assessments by the Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) department are based solely on the number of accidents. A questionnaire is used to conduct the study in one of the largest steel production companies in Iran. With respect to health, safety, and environment, the results revealed that control of disease, fire hazards, and air pollution are of paramount importance, with coefficients of 0.057, 0.062, and 0.054, respectively. Furthermore, health and environment indicators were found to be the most common causes of poor performance. Finally, it was shown that HSE management systems can affect the majority of performance safety indicators in the short run, whereas health and environment indicators require longer periods of time. The objective of this study is to present an HSE-MS unit performance assessment model in steel industries. Moreover, we seek to answer the following question: what are the factors that affect HSE unit system in the steel industry? Also, for each factor, the extent of impact on the performance of the HSE management system in the organization is determined.

Assessment and Improvement of GOCE based Global Geopotential Models Using Wavelet Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erol, Serdar; Erol, Bihter; Serkan Isik, Mustafa

2016-07-01

The contribution of recent Earth gravity field satellite missions, specifically GOCE mission, leads significant improvement in quality of gravity field models in both accuracy and resolution manners. However the performance and quality of each released model vary not only depending on the spatial location of the Earth but also the different bands of the spectral expansion. Therefore the assessment of the global model performances with validations using in situ-data in varying territories on the Earth is essential for clarifying their exact performances in local. Beside of this, their spectral evaluation and quality assessment of the signal in each part of the spherical harmonic expansion spectrum is essential to have a clear decision for the commission error content of the model and determining its optimal degree, revealed the best results, as well. The later analyses provide also a perspective and comparison on the global behavior of the models and opportunity to report the sequential improvement of the models depending on the mission developments and hence the contribution of the new data of missions. In this study a review on spectral assessment results of the recently released GOCE based global geopotential models DIR-R5, TIM-R5 with the enhancement using EGM2008, as reference model, in Turkey, versus the terrestrial data is provided. Beside of reporting the GOCE mission contribution to the models in Turkish territory, the possible improvement in the spectral quality of these models, via decomposition that are highly contaminated by noise, is purposed. In the analyses the motivation is on achieving an optimal amount of improvement that rely on conserving the useful component of the GOCE signal as much as possible, while fusing the filtered GOCE based models with EGM2008 in the appropriate spectral bands. The investigation also contain the assessment of the coherence and the correlation between the Earth gravity field parameters (free-air gravity anomalies and geoid undulations), derived from the validated geopotential models and terrestrial data (GPS/leveling, terrestrial gravity observations, DTM etc.), as well as the WGM2012 products. In the conclusion, with the numerical results, the performance of the assessed models are clarified in Turkish territory and the potential of the Wavelet decomposition in the improvement of the geopotential models is verified.

Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review.

PubMed

Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M; Molkenboer, Jan F M; Van der Post, Joris A M; Mol, Ben W; Kok, Marjolein

2015-12-01

To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015. We extracted information on study design, sample size, model-building strategies and validation. We evaluated the phases of model development and summarized their performance in terms of discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. We collected different predictor variables together with their defined significance, in order to identify important predictor variables for successful ECV. We identified eight articles reporting on seven prediction models. All models were subjected to internal validation. Only one model was also validated in an external cohort. Two prediction models had a low overall risk of bias, of which only one showed promising predictive performance at internal validation. This model also completed the phase of external validation. For none of the models their impact on clinical practice was evaluated. The most important predictor variables for successful ECV described in the selected articles were parity, placental location, breech engagement and the fetal head being palpable. One model was assessed using discrimination and calibration using internal (AUC 0.71) and external validation (AUC 0.64), while two other models were assessed with discrimination and calibration, respectively. We found one prediction model for breech presentation that was validated in an external cohort and had acceptable predictive performance. This model should be used to council women considering ECV. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Assessing a cross-border logistics policy using a performance measurement system framework: the case of Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, David W. C.; Choy, K. L.; Chow, Harry K. H.; Lin, Canhong

2014-06-01

For the most rapidly growing economic entity in the world, China, a new logistics operation called the indirect cross-border supply chain model has recently emerged. The primary idea of this model is to reduce logistics costs by storing goods at a bonded warehouse with low storage cost in certain Chinese regions, such as the Pearl River Delta (PRD). This research proposes a performance measurement system (PMS) framework to assess the direct and indirect cross-border supply chain models. The PMS covers four categories including cost, time, quality and flexibility in the assessment of the performance of direct and indirect models. Furthermore, a survey was conducted to investigate the logistics performance of third party logistics (3PLs) at the PRD regions, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. The significance of the proposed PMS framework allows 3PLs accurately pinpoint the weakness and strengths of it current operations policy at four major performance measurement categories. Hence, this helps 3PLs further enhance the competitiveness and operations efficiency through better resources allocation at the area of warehousing and transportation.

Assessing the quality of activities in a smart environment.

PubMed

Cook, Diane J; Schmitter-Edgecombe, M

2009-01-01

Pervasive computing technology can provide valuable health monitoring and assistance technology to help individuals live independent lives in their own homes. As a critical part of this technology, our objective is to design software algorithms that recognize and assess the consistency of activities of daily living that individuals perform in their own homes. We have designed algorithms that automatically learn Markov models for each class of activity. These models are used to recognize activities that are performed in a smart home and to identify errors and inconsistencies in the performed activity. We validate our approach using data collected from 60 volunteers who performed a series of activities in our smart apartment testbed. The results indicate that the algorithms correctly label the activities and successfully assess the completeness and consistency of the performed task. Our results indicate that activity recognition and assessment can be automated using machine learning algorithms and smart home technology. These algorithms will be useful for automating remote health monitoring and interventions.

A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research.

PubMed

Pajouheshnia, Romin; Pestman, Wiebe R; Teerenstra, Steven; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-08-25

It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in clinical prediction research. A framework for comparing logistic regression modelling strategies by their likelihoods was formulated using a wrapper approach. Five different strategies for modelling, including simple shrinkage methods, were compared in four empirical data sets to illustrate the concept of a priori strategy comparison. Simulations were performed in both randomly generated data and empirical data to investigate the influence of data characteristics on strategy performance. We applied the comparison framework in a case study setting. Optimal strategies were selected based on the results of a priori comparisons in a clinical data set and the performance of models built according to each strategy was assessed using the Brier score and calibration plots. The performance of modelling strategies was highly dependent on the characteristics of the development data in both linear and logistic regression settings. A priori comparisons in four empirical data sets found that no strategy consistently outperformed the others. The percentage of times that a model adjustment strategy outperformed a logistic model ranged from 3.9 to 94.9 %, depending on the strategy and data set. However, in our case study setting the a priori selection of optimal methods did not result in detectable improvement in model performance when assessed in an external data set. The performance of prediction modelling strategies is a data-dependent process and can be highly variable between data sets within the same clinical domain. A priori strategy comparison can be used to determine an optimal logistic regression modelling strategy for a given data set before selecting a final modelling approach.

Performance of homeostasis model assessment and serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein for prediction of isolated post-load hyperglycaemia.

PubMed

Lai, Y-C; Li, H-Y; Hung, C-S; Lin, M-S; Shih, S-R; Ma, W-Y; Hua, C-H; Chuang, L-M; Sung, F-C; Wei, J-N

2013-03-01

To evaluate whether homeostasis model assessment and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein improve the prediction of isolated post-load hyperglycaemia. The subjects were 1458 adults without self-reported diabetes recruited between 2006 and 2010. Isolated post-load hyperglycaemia was defined as fasting plasma glucose < 7 mmol/l and 2-h post-load plasma glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l. Risk scores of isolated post-load hyperglycaemia were constructed by multivariate logistic regression. An independent group (n = 154) was enrolled from 2010 to 2011 to validate the models' performance. One hundred and twenty-three subjects (8.28%) were newly diagnosed as having diabetes mellitus. Among those with undiagnosed diabetes, 64 subjects (52%) had isolated post-load hyperglycaemia. Subjects with isolated post-load hyperglycaemia were older, more centrally obese and had higher blood pressure, HbA(1c), fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides, LDL cholesterol, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and lower homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function than those without diabetes. The risk scores included age, gender, BMI, homeostasis model assessment, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and HbA(1c). The full model had high sensitivity (84%) and specificity (87%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.91), with a cut-off point of 23.81; validation in an independent data set showed 88% sensitivity, 77% specificity and an area under curve of 0.89. Over half of those with undiagnosed diabetes had isolated post-load hyperglycaemia. Homeostasis model assessment and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein are useful to identify subjects with isolated post-load hyperglycaemia, with improved performance over fasting plasma glucose or HbA(1c) alone. © 2012 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2012 Diabetes UK.

Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Uncertainty estimates of purity measurements based on current information: toward a "live validation" of purity methods.

PubMed

Apostol, Izydor; Kelner, Drew; Jiang, Xinzhao Grace; Huang, Gang; Wypych, Jette; Zhang, Xin; Gastwirt, Jessica; Chen, Kenneth; Fodor, Szilan; Hapuarachchi, Suminda; Meriage, Dave; Ye, Frank; Poppe, Leszek; Szpankowski, Wojciech

2012-12-01

To predict precision and other performance characteristics of chromatographic purity methods, which represent the most widely used form of analysis in the biopharmaceutical industry. We have conducted a comprehensive survey of purity methods, and show that all performance characteristics fall within narrow measurement ranges. This observation was used to develop a model called Uncertainty Based on Current Information (UBCI), which expresses these performance characteristics as a function of the signal and noise levels, hardware specifications, and software settings. We applied the UCBI model to assess the uncertainty of purity measurements, and compared the results to those from conventional qualification. We demonstrated that the UBCI model is suitable to dynamically assess method performance characteristics, based on information extracted from individual chromatograms. The model provides an opportunity for streamlining qualification and validation studies by implementing a "live validation" of test results utilizing UBCI as a concurrent assessment of measurement uncertainty. Therefore, UBCI can potentially mitigate the challenges associated with laborious conventional method validation and facilitates the introduction of more advanced analytical technologies during the method lifecycle.

Assessment of the WRF-ARW model during fog conditions in a coastal arid region using different PBL schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Temimi, Marouane; Chaouch, Naira; Weston, Michael; Ghedira, Hosni

2017-04-01

This study covers five fog events reported in 2014 at Abu Dhabi International Airport in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We assess the performance of WRF-ARW model during fog conditions and we intercompare seven different PBL schemes and assess their impact on the performance of the simulations. Seven PBL schemes, namely, Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), Moller-Yamada Nakanishi and Niino (MYNN) level 2.5, Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE-EDMF), Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM2), Grenier-Bretherton-McCaa (GBM) and MYNN level 3 were tested. Radiosonde data from the Abu Dhabi International Airport and surface measurements of relative humidity (RH), dew point temperature, wind speed, and temperature profiles were used to assess the performance of the model. All PBL schemes showed comparable skills with relatively higher performance with the QNSE scheme. The average RH Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and BIAS for all PBLs were 15.75 % and -9.07 %, respectively, whereas the obtained RMSE and BIAS when QNSE was used were 14.65 % and -6.3 % respectively. Comparable skills were obtained for the rest of the variables. Local PBL schemes showed better performance than non-local schemes. Discrepancies between simulated and observed values were higher at the surface level compared to high altitude values. The sensitivity to lead time showed that best simulation performances were obtained when the lead time varies between 12 and 18 hours. In addition, the results of the simulations show that better performance is obtained when the starting condition is dry.

Environmental modelling of use of treated organic waste on agricultural land: a comparison of existing models for life cycle assessment of waste systems.

PubMed

Hansen, Trine Lund; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Schmidt, Sonia

2006-04-01

Modelling of environmental impacts from the application of treated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) in agriculture differs widely between different models for environmental assessment of waste systems. In this comparative study five models were examined concerning quantification and impact assessment of environmental effects from land application of treated organic MSW: DST (Decision Support Tool, USA), IWM (Integrated Waste Management, U.K.), THE IFEU PROJECT (Germany), ORWARE (ORganic WAste REsearch, Sweden) and EASEWASTE (Environmental Assessment of Solid Waste Systems and Technologies, Denmark). DST and IWM are life cycle inventory (LCI) models, thus not performing actual impact assessment. The DST model includes only one water emission (biological oxygen demand) from compost leaching in the results and IWM considers only air emissions from avoided production of commercial fertilizers. THE IFEU PROJECT, ORWARE and EASEWASTE are life cycle assessment (LCA) models containing more detailed land application modules. A case study estimating the environmental impacts from land application of 1 ton of composted source sorted organic household waste was performed to compare the results from the different models and investigate the origin of any difference in type or magnitude of the results. The contributions from the LCI models were limited and did not depend on waste composition or local agricultural conditions. The three LCA models use the same overall approach for quantifying the impacts of the system. However, due to slightly different assumptions, quantification methods and environmental impact assessment, the obtained results varied clearly between the models. Furthermore, local conditions (e.g. soil type, farm type, climate and legal regulation) and waste composition strongly influenced the results of the environmental assessment.

A systematic literature review of open source software quality assessment models.

PubMed

Adewumi, Adewole; Misra, Sanjay; Omoregbe, Nicholas; Crawford, Broderick; Soto, Ricardo

2016-01-01

Many open source software (OSS) quality assessment models are proposed and available in the literature. However, there is little or no adoption of these models in practice. In order to guide the formulation of newer models so they can be acceptable by practitioners, there is need for clear discrimination of the existing models based on their specific properties. Based on this, the aim of this study is to perform a systematic literature review to investigate the properties of the existing OSS quality assessment models by classifying them with respect to their quality characteristics, the methodology they use for assessment, and their domain of application so as to guide the formulation and development of newer models. Searches in IEEE Xplore, ACM, Science Direct, Springer and Google Search is performed so as to retrieve all relevant primary studies in this regard. Journal and conference papers between the year 2003 and 2015 were considered since the first known OSS quality model emerged in 2003. A total of 19 OSS quality assessment model papers were selected. To select these models we have developed assessment criteria to evaluate the quality of the existing studies. Quality assessment models are classified into five categories based on the quality characteristics they possess namely: single-attribute, rounded category, community-only attribute, non-community attribute as well as the non-quality in use models. Our study reflects that software selection based on hierarchical structures is found to be the most popular selection method in the existing OSS quality assessment models. Furthermore, we found that majority (47%) of the existing models do not specify any domain of application. In conclusion, our study will be a valuable contribution to the community and helps the quality assessment model developers in formulating newer models and also to the practitioners (software evaluators) in selecting suitable OSS in the midst of alternatives.

Role of natural analogs in performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sagar, B.; Wittmeyer, G.W.

1995-09-01

Mathematical models of the flow of water and transport of radionuclides in porous media will be used to assess the ability of deep geologic repositories to safely contain nuclear waste. These models must, in some sense, be validated to ensure that they adequately describe the physical processes occurring within the repository and its geologic setting. Inasmuch as the spatial and temporal scales over which these models must be applied in performance assessment are very large, validation of these models against laboratory and small-scale field experiments may be considered inadequate. Natural analogs may provide validation data that are representative of physico-chemicalmore » processes that occur over spatial and temporal scales as large or larger than those relevant to repository design. The authors discuss the manner in which natural analog data may be used to increase confidence in performance assessment models and conclude that, while these data may be suitable for testing the basic laws governing flow and transport, there is insufficient control of boundary and initial conditions and forcing functions to permit quantitative validation of complex, spatially distributed flow and transport models. The authors also express their opinion that, for collecting adequate data from natural analogs, resources will have to be devoted to them that are much larger than are devoted to them at present.« less

Temporal evolution modeling of hydraulic and water quality performance of permeable pavements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jian; He, Jianxun; Valeo, Caterina; Chu, Angus

2016-02-01

A mathematical model for predicting hydraulic and water quality performance in both the short- and long-term is proposed based on field measurements for three types of permeable pavements: porous asphalt (PA), porous concrete (PC), and permeable inter-locking concrete pavers (PICP). The model was applied to three field-scale test sites in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The model performance was assessed in terms of hydraulic parameters including time to peak, peak flow and water balance and a water quality variable (the removal rate of total suspended solids). A total of 20 simulated storm events were used for model calibration and verification processes. The proposed model can simulate the outflow hydrographs with a coefficient of determination (R2) ranging from 0.762 to 0.907, and normalized root-mean-square deviation (NRMSD) ranging from 13.78% to 17.83%. Comparison of the time to peak flow, peak flow, runoff volume and TSS removal rates between the measured and modeled values in model verification phase had a maximum difference of 11%. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of capturing the temporal dynamics of the pavement performance. Therefore, the model has great potential as a practical modeling tool for permeable pavement design and performance assessment.

Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for improved risk assessment for Down's syndrome.

PubMed

Koivu, Aki; Korpimäki, Teemu; Kivelä, Petri; Pahikkala, Tapio; Sairanen, Mikko

2018-05-04

Prenatal screening generates a great amount of data that is used for predicting risk of various disorders. Prenatal risk assessment is based on multiple clinical variables and overall performance is defined by how well the risk algorithm is optimized for the population in question. This article evaluates machine learning algorithms to improve performance of first trimester screening of Down syndrome. Machine learning algorithms pose an adaptive alternative to develop better risk assessment models using the existing clinical variables. Two real-world data sets were used to experiment with multiple classification algorithms. Implemented models were tested with a third, real-world, data set and performance was compared to a predicate method, a commercial risk assessment software. Best performing deep neural network model gave an area under the curve of 0.96 and detection rate of 78% with 1% false positive rate with the test data. Support vector machine model gave area under the curve of 0.95 and detection rate of 61% with 1% false positive rate with the same test data. When compared with the predicate method, the best support vector machine model was slightly inferior, but an optimized deep neural network model was able to give higher detection rates with same false positive rate or similar detection rate but with markedly lower false positive rate. This finding could further improve the first trimester screening for Down syndrome, by using existing clinical variables and a large training data derived from a specific population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiological performance assessment for the E-Area Vaults Disposal Facility. Appendices A through M

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, J.R.

1994-04-15

These document contains appendices A-M for the performance assessment. They are A: details of models and assumptions, B: computer codes, C: data tabulation, D: geochemical interactions, E: hydrogeology of the Savannah River Site, F: software QA plans, G: completeness review guide, H: performance assessment peer review panel recommendations, I: suspect soil performance analysis, J: sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, K: vault degradation study, L: description of naval reactor waste disposal, M: porflow input file. (GHH)

Performance assessment in complex individual and team tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddy, Douglas R.

1992-01-01

Described here is an eclectic, performance based approach to assessing cognitive performance from multiple perspectives. The experience gained from assessing the effects of antihistamines and scenario difficulty on C (exp 2) decision making performance in Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) weapons director (WD) teams can serve as a model for realistic simulations in space operations. Emphasis is placed on the flexibility of measurement, hierarchical organization of measurement levels, data collection from multiple perspectives, and the difficulty of managing large amounts of data.

Source term model evaluations for the low-level waste facility performance assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yim, M.S.; Su, S.I.

1995-12-31

The estimation of release of radionuclides from various waste forms to the bottom boundary of the waste disposal facility (source term) is one of the most important aspects of LLW facility performance assessment. In this work, several currently used source term models are comparatively evaluated for the release of carbon-14 based on a test case problem. The models compared include PRESTO-EPA-CPG, IMPACTS, DUST and NEFTRAN-II. Major differences in assumptions and approaches between the models are described and key parameters are identified through sensitivity analysis. The source term results from different models are compared and other concerns or suggestions are discussed.

VRPI Thermoresponsive Reversibly Attachable Patch for Temporary Intervention in Ocular Trauma

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

Polymerization (ATRP) on biocompatible substrates (e.g. parylene, polyimide , etc.). Adhesion data performed on preliminary samples under uniaxial testing...adhesion performance is completed in vitro, adhesion in vivo and biocompatibility will be assessed using a rabbit animal model. 15. SUBJECT TERMS...vitro, validate adhesive performance in vivo and perform preliminary biocompatibility assessments. 2. Keywords. sutureless wound repair

Radioactive waste isolation in salt: special advisory report on the status of the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation's plans for repository performance assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ditmars, J.D.; Walbridge, E.W.; Rote, D.M.

1983-10-01

Repository performance assessment is analysis that identifies events and processes that might affect a repository system for isolation of radioactive waste, examines their effects on barriers to waste migration, and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence and their consequences. In 1983 Battelle Memorial Institute's Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) prepared two plans - one for performance assessment for a waste repository in salt and one for verification and validation of performance assessment technology. At the request of the US Department of Energy's Salt Repository Project Office (SRPO), Argonne National Laboratory reviewed those plans and prepared this report to advisemore » SRPO of specific areas where ONWI's plans for performance assessment might be improved. This report presents a framework for repository performance assessment that clearly identifies the relationships among the disposal problems, the processes underlying the problems, the tools for assessment (computer codes), and the data. In particular, the relationships among important processes and 26 model codes available to ONWI are indicated. A common suggestion for computer code verification and validation is the need for specific and unambiguous documentation of the results of performance assessment activities. A major portion of this report consists of status summaries of 27 model codes indicated as potentially useful by ONWI. The code summaries focus on three main areas: (1) the code's purpose, capabilities, and limitations; (2) status of the elements of documentation and review essential for code verification and validation; and (3) proposed application of the code for performance assessment of salt repository systems. 15 references, 6 figures, 4 tables.« less

Probabilistic performance-assessment modeling of the mixed waste landfill at Sandia National Laboratories.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peace, Gerald; Goering, Timothy James; Miller, Mark Laverne

2007-01-01

A probabilistic performance assessment has been conducted to evaluate the fate and transport of radionuclides (americium-241, cesium-137, cobalt-60, plutonium-238, plutonium-239, radium-226, radon-222, strontium-90, thorium-232, tritium, uranium-238), heavy metals (lead and cadmium), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at the Mixed Waste Landfill (MWL). Probabilistic analyses were performed to quantify uncertainties inherent in the system and models for a 1,000-year period, and sensitivity analyses were performed to identify parameters and processes that were most important to the simulated performance metrics. Comparisons between simulated results and measured values at the MWL were made to gain confidence in the models and perform calibrations whenmore » data were available. In addition, long-term monitoring requirements and triggers were recommended based on the results of the quantified uncertainty and sensitivity analyses.« less

Integrated Basin-Scale Modelling and Assessment: Lessons and Challenges in Linking Biophysical and Socioeconomic Sciences for Enhancing Sustainability Outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakeman, A. J.; Croke, B. F.; Letcher, R. A.; Newham, L. T.; Norton, J. P.

2004-12-01

Integrated Assessment (IA) and Integrated Scenario Modelling (ISM) are being increasingly used to assess sustainability options and, in particular, the effects of policy changes, land use management, climate forcing and other uncontrollable drivers on a wide range of river basin outcomes. IA and ISM are processes that invoke the necessary range of biophysical and socioeconomic disciplines and embrace stakeholder involvement as an essential ingredient. The authors report on their IA studies in Australian and Asian river basins. They illustrate a range of modelling frameworks and tools that were used to perform the assessments, engage the relevant interest groups and promote systems understanding and social learning. The studies cover a range of issues and policies including poverty alleviation, industrial investments, infrastructure provision, erosion and sedimentation, water supply allocation, and ecological protection. The positive impacts of these studies are presented, as well as the lessons learnt and the challenges for modellers and disciplinary experts in advancing the reputation and performance of integrated assessment exercises.

Performance of DRAINWAT model in assessing the drainage discharge from a small watershed in the Po Valley (Northern Italy)

Treesearch

Maurizio Borin; Tomaso Bisol; Devendra M. Amatya

2010-01-01

The performance of DRAINWAT, a DRAINMOD based-watershed scale hydrology model, in predicting the water discharge was assessed in a small basin in Northern Italy during 2002-2005. DRAINWAT slightly unpredicted (4%) the total stream drainage flow respect the measured data (549 mm), in calibration (2002-04). The underprediction was 11% in 2004-05 validation period, when...

Cost and Performance Model for Photovoltaic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borden, C. S.; Smith, J. H.; Davisson, M. C.; Reiter, L. J.

1986-01-01

Lifetime cost and performance (LCP) model assists in assessment of design options for photovoltaic systems. LCP is simulation of performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with photovoltaic power systems connected to electric-utility grid. LCP provides user with substantial flexibility in specifying technical and economic environment of application.

Performance Assessment in Serious Games: Compensating for the Effects of Randomness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westera, Wim

2016-01-01

This paper is about performance assessment in serious games. We conceive serious gaming as a process of player-lead decision taking. Starting from combinatorics and item-response theory we provide an analytical model that makes explicit to what extent observed player performances (decisions) are blurred by chance processes (guessing behaviors). We…

The Relationship between Students' Performance on Conventional Standardized Mathematics Assessments and Complex Mathematical Modeling Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kartal, Ozgul; Dunya, Beyza Aksu; Diefes-Dux, Heidi A.; Zawojewski, Judith S.

2016-01-01

Critical to many science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) career paths is mathematical modeling--specifically, the creation and adaptation of mathematical models to solve problems in complex settings. Conventional standardized measures of mathematics achievement are not structured to directly assess this type of mathematical…

Dynamic Evaluation of a Regional Air Quality Model: Assessing the Emissions-Induced Weekly Ozone Cycle

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality models are used to predict changes in pollutant concentrations resulting from envisioned emission control policies. Recognizing the need to assess the credibility of air quality models in a policy-relevant context, we perform a dynamic evaluation of the community Mult...

Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2014-01-01

Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

Flight simulator fidelity assessment in a rotorcraft lateral translation maneuver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.; Malsbury, T.; Atencio, A., Jr.

1992-01-01

A model-based methodology for assessing flight simulator fidelity in closed-loop fashion is exercised in analyzing a rotorcraft low-altitude maneuver for which flight test and simulation results were available. The addition of a handling qualities sensitivity function to a previously developed model-based assessment criteria allows an analytical comparison of both performance and handling qualities between simulation and flight test. Model predictions regarding the existence of simulator fidelity problems are corroborated by experiment. The modeling approach is used to assess analytically the effects of modifying simulator characteristics on simulator fidelity.

Why did the bear cross the road? Comparing the performance of multiple resistance surfaces and connectivity modeling methods

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Jesse S. Lewis; Erin L. Landguth

2014-01-01

There have been few assessments of the performance of alternative resistance surfaces, and little is known about how connectivity modeling approaches differ in their ability to predict organism movements. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of four connectivity modeling approaches applied to two resistance surfaces in predicting the locations of highway...

Assessing the limitations of the Banister model in monitoring training

PubMed Central

Hellard, Philippe; Avalos, Marta; Lacoste, Lucien; Barale, Frédéric; Chatard, Jean-Claude; Millet, Grégoire P.

2006-01-01

The aim of this study was to carry out a statistical analysis of the Banister model to verify how useful it is in monitoring the training programmes of elite swimmers. The accuracy, the ill-conditioning and the stability of this model were thus investigated. Training loads of nine elite swimmers, measured over one season, were related to performances with the Banister model. Firstly, to assess accuracy, the 95% bootstrap confidence interval (95% CI) of parameter estimates and modelled performances were calculated. Secondly, to study ill-conditioning, the correlation matrix of parameter estimates was computed. Finally, to analyse stability, iterative computation was performed with the same data but minus one performance, chosen randomly. Performances were significantly related to training loads in all subjects (R2= 0.79 ± 0.13, P < 0.05) and the estimation procedure seemed to be stable. Nevertheless, the 95% CI of the most useful parameters for monitoring training were wide τa =38 (17, 59), τf =19 (6, 32), tn =19 (7, 35), tg =43 (25, 61). Furthermore, some parameters were highly correlated making their interpretation worthless. The study suggested possible ways to deal with these problems and reviewed alternative methods to model the training-performance relationships. PMID:16608765

Assessing the feasibility, cost, and utility of developing models of human performance in aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stillwell, William

1990-01-01

The purpose of the effort outlined in this briefing was to determine whether models exist or can be developed that can be used to address aviation automation issues. A multidisciplinary team has been assembled to undertake this effort, including experts in human performance, team/crew, and aviation system modeling, and aviation data used as input to such models. The project consists of two phases, a requirements assessment phase that is designed to determine the feasibility and utility of alternative modeling efforts, and a model development and evaluation phase that will seek to implement the plan (if a feasible cost effective development effort is found) that results from the first phase. Viewgraphs are given.

[Teaching performance assessment in Public Health employing three different strategies].

PubMed

Martínez-González, Adrián; Moreno-Altamirano, Laura; Ponce-Rosas, Efrén Raúl; Martínez-Franco, Adrián Israel; Urrutia-Aguilar, María Esther

2011-01-01

The educational system depends upon the quality and performance of their faculty and should therefore be process of continuous improvement. To assess the teaching performance of the Public Health professors, at the Faculty of Medicine, UNAM through three strategies. Justification study. The evaluation was conducted under a mediational model through three strategies: students' opinion assessment, self-assessment and students' academic achievement. We applied descriptive statistics, Student t test, ANOVA and Pearson correlation. Twenty professors were evaluated from the Public Health department, representing 57% of all them who teach the subject. The professor's performance was highly valued self-assessment compared with assessment of student opinion, was confirmed by statistical analysis the difference was significant. The difference amongst the three evaluation strategies became more evident between self-assessment and the scores obtained by students in their academic achievement. The integration of these three strategies offers a more complete view of the teacher's performance quality. Academic achievement appears to be a more objective strategy for teaching performance assessment than students' opinion and self-assessment.

Risk-adjusted payment and performance assessment for primary care.

PubMed

Ash, Arlene S; Ellis, Randall P

2012-08-01

Many wish to change incentives for primary care practices through bundled population-based payments and substantial performance feedback and bonus payments. Recognizing patient differences in costs and outcomes is crucial, but customized risk adjustment for such purposes is underdeveloped. Using MarketScan's claims-based data on 17.4 million commercially insured lives, we modeled bundled payment to support expected primary care activity levels (PCAL) and 9 patient outcomes for performance assessment. We evaluated models using 457,000 people assigned to 436 primary care physician panels, and among 13,000 people in a distinct multipayer medical home implementation with commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients. Each outcome is separately predicted from age, sex, and diagnoses. We define the PCAL outcome as a subset of all costs that proxies the bundled payment needed for comprehensive primary care. Other expected outcomes are used to establish targets against which actual performance can be fairly judged. We evaluate model performance using R(2)'s at patient and practice levels, and within policy-relevant subgroups. The PCAL model explains 67% of variation in its outcome, performing well across diverse patient ages, payers, plan types, and provider specialties; it explains 72% of practice-level variation. In 9 performance measures, the outcome-specific models explain 17%-86% of variation at the practice level, often substantially outperforming a generic score like the one used for full capitation payments in Medicare: for example, with grouped R(2)'s of 47% versus 5% for predicting "prescriptions for antibiotics of concern." Existing data can support the risk-adjusted bundled payment calculations and performance assessments needed to encourage desired transformations in primary care.

LADAR Performance Simulations with a High Spectral Resolution Atmospheric Transmittance and Radiance Model-LEEDR

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

such as FASCODE is accomplished. The assessment is limited by the correctness of the models used; validating the models is beyond the scope of this...comparisons with other models and validation against data sets (Snell et al. 2000). 2.3.2 Previous Research Several LADAR simulations have been produced...performance models would better capture the atmosphere physics and climatological effects on these systems. Also, further validation needs to be performed

Propfan test assessment testbed aircraft stability and control/performance 1/9-scale wind tunnel tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, B. H., Jr.; Tomlin, K. H.; Aljabri, A. S.; Mason, C. A.

1988-01-01

One-ninth scale wind tunnel model tests of the Propfan Test Assessment (PTA) aircraft were performed in three different NASA facilities. Wing and propfan nacelle static pressures, model forces and moments, and flow field at the propfan plane were measured in these tests. Tests started in June 1985 and were completed in January 1987. These data were needed to assure PTA safety of flight, predict PTA performance, and validate analytical codes that will be used to predict flow fields in which the propfan will operate.

Assessment of predictive models for chlorophyll-a concentration of a tropical lake

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background This study assesses four predictive ecological models; Fuzzy Logic (FL), Recurrent Artificial Neural Network (RANN), Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm (HEA) and multiple linear regressions (MLR) to forecast chlorophyll- a concentration using limnological data from 2001 through 2004 of unstratified shallow, oligotrophic to mesotrophic tropical Putrajaya Lake (Malaysia). Performances of the models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and Area under the Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Chlorophyll-a have been used to estimate algal biomass in aquatic ecosystem as it is common in most algae. Algal biomass indicates of the trophic status of a water body. Chlorophyll- a therefore, is an effective indicator for monitoring eutrophication which is a common problem of lakes and reservoirs all over the world. Assessments of these predictive models are necessary towards developing a reliable algorithm to estimate chlorophyll- a concentration for eutrophication management of tropical lakes. Results Same data set was used for models development and the data was divided into two sets; training and testing to avoid biasness in results. FL and RANN models were developed using parameters selected through sensitivity analysis. The selected variables were water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen and Secchi depth. Dissolved oxygen, selected through stepwise procedure, was used to develop the MLR model. HEA model used parameters selected using genetic algorithm (GA). The selected parameters were pH, Secchi depth, dissolved oxygen and nitrate nitrogen. RMSE, r, and AUC values for MLR model were (4.60, 0.5, and 0.76), FL model were (4.49, 0.6, and 0.84), RANN model were (4.28, 0.7, and 0.79) and HEA model were (4.27, 0.7, and 0.82) respectively. Performance inconsistencies between four models in terms of performance criteria in this study resulted from the methodology used in measuring the performance. RMSE is based on the level of error of prediction whereas AUC is based on binary classification task. Conclusions Overall, HEA produced the best performance in terms of RMSE, r, and AUC values. This was followed by FL, RANN, and MLR. PMID:22372859

The adaption and use of research codes for performance assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liebetrau, A.M.

1987-05-01

Models of real-world phenomena are developed for many reasons. The models are usually, if not always, implemented in the form of a computer code. The characteristics of a code are determined largely by its intended use. Realizations or implementations of detailed mathematical models of complex physical and/or chemical processes are often referred to as research or scientific (RS) codes. Research codes typically require large amounts of computing time. One example of an RS code is a finite-element code for solving complex systems of differential equations that describe mass transfer through some geologic medium. Considerable computing time is required because computationsmore » are done at many points in time and/or space. Codes used to evaluate the overall performance of real-world physical systems are called performance assessment (PA) codes. Performance assessment codes are used to conduct simulated experiments involving systems that cannot be directly observed. Thus, PA codes usually involve repeated simulations of system performance in situations that preclude the use of conventional experimental and statistical methods. 3 figs.« less

Assessing the evolution of primary healthcare organizations and their performance (2005-2010) in two regions of Québec province: Montréal and Montérégie

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The Canadian healthcare system is currently experiencing important organizational transformations through the reform of primary healthcare (PHC). These reforms vary in scope but share a common feature of proposing the transformation of PHC organizations by implementing new models of PHC organization. These models vary in their performance with respect to client affiliation, utilization of services, experience of care and perceived outcomes of care. Objectives In early 2005 we conducted a study in the two most populous regions of Quebec province (Montreal and Montérégie) which assessed the association between prevailing models of primary healthcare (PHC) and population-level experience of care. The goal of the present research project is to track the evolution of PHC organizational models and their relative performance through the reform process (from 2005 until 2010) and to assess factors at the organizational and contextual levels that are associated with the transformation of PHC organizations and their performance. Methods/Design This study will consist of three interrelated surveys, hierarchically nested. The first survey is a population-based survey of randomly-selected adults from two populous regions in the province of Quebec. This survey will assess the current affiliation of people with PHC organizations, their level of utilization of healthcare services, attributes of their experience of care, reception of preventive and curative services and perception of unmet needs for care. The second survey is an organizational survey of PHC organizations assessing aspects related to their vision, organizational structure, level of resources, and clinical practice characteristics. This information will serve to develop a taxonomy of organizations using a mixed methods approach of factorial analysis and principal component analysis. The third survey is an assessment of the organizational context in which PHC organizations are evolving. The five year prospective period will serve as a natural experiment to assess contextual and organizational factors (in 2005) associated with migration of PHC organizational models into new forms or models (in 2010) and assess the impact of this evolution on the performance of PHC. Discussion The results of this study will shed light on changes brought about in the organization of PHC and on factors associated with these changes. PMID:21122145

Assessing the evolution of primary healthcare organizations and their performance (2005-2010) in two regions of Québec province: Montréal and Montérégie.

PubMed

Levesque, Jean-Frédéric; Pineault, Raynald; Provost, Sylvie; Tousignant, Pierre; Couture, Audrey; Da Silva, Roxane Borgès; Breton, Mylaine

2010-12-01

The Canadian healthcare system is currently experiencing important organizational transformations through the reform of primary healthcare (PHC). These reforms vary in scope but share a common feature of proposing the transformation of PHC organizations by implementing new models of PHC organization. These models vary in their performance with respect to client affiliation, utilization of services, experience of care and perceived outcomes of care. In early 2005 we conducted a study in the two most populous regions of Quebec province (Montreal and Montérégie) which assessed the association between prevailing models of primary healthcare (PHC) and population-level experience of care. The goal of the present research project is to track the evolution of PHC organizational models and their relative performance through the reform process (from 2005 until 2010) and to assess factors at the organizational and contextual levels that are associated with the transformation of PHC organizations and their performance. This study will consist of three interrelated surveys, hierarchically nested. The first survey is a population-based survey of randomly-selected adults from two populous regions in the province of Quebec. This survey will assess the current affiliation of people with PHC organizations, their level of utilization of healthcare services, attributes of their experience of care, reception of preventive and curative services and perception of unmet needs for care. The second survey is an organizational survey of PHC organizations assessing aspects related to their vision, organizational structure, level of resources, and clinical practice characteristics. This information will serve to develop a taxonomy of organizations using a mixed methods approach of factorial analysis and principal component analysis. The third survey is an assessment of the organizational context in which PHC organizations are evolving. The five year prospective period will serve as a natural experiment to assess contextual and organizational factors (in 2005) associated with migration of PHC organizational models into new forms or models (in 2010) and assess the impact of this evolution on the performance of PHC. The results of this study will shed light on changes brought about in the organization of PHC and on factors associated with these changes.

Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Liu, Yongzhi; Li, Fen; Ding, Dewen

2016-07-01

Marine ecosystem dynamic models (MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization (PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An efficient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the efficiency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fit of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confidence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientific and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

The model of flood control using servqual method and importance performance analysis in Surakarta City – Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titi Purwantini, V.; Sutanto, Yusuf

2018-05-01

This research is to create a model of flood control in the city of Surakarta using Servqual method and Importance Performance Analysis. Service quality is generally defined as the overall assessment of a service by the customersor the extent to which a service meets customer’s needs or expectations. The purpose of this study is to find the first model of flood control that is appropriate to the condition of the community. Surakarta This means looking for a model that can provide satisfactory service for the people of Surakarta who are in the location of the flood. The second is to find the right model to improve service performance of Surakarta City Government in serving the people in flood location. The method used to determine the satisfaction of the public on the quality of service is to see the difference in the quality of service expected by the community with the reality. This method is Servqual Method While to assess the performance of city government officials is by comparing the actual performance with the quality of services provided, this method is This means looking for a model that can provide satisfactory service for the people of Surakarta who are in the location of the flood.The second is to find the right model to improve service performance of Surakarta City Government in serving the people in flood location. The method used to determine the satisfaction of the public on the quality of service is to see the difference in the quality of service expected by the community with the reality. This method is Servqual Method While to assess the performance of city government officials is by comparing the actual performance with the quality of services provided, this method is Importance Performance Analysis. Samples were people living in flooded areas in the city of Surakarta. Result this research is Satisfaction = Responsiveness+ Realibility + Assurance + Empathy+ Tangible (Servqual Model) and Importance Performance Analysis is From Cartesian diagram can be made Flood Control Formula as follow: Food Control = High performance

The bidirectional pathways between internalizing and externalizing problems and academic performance from 6 to 18 years.

PubMed

Van der Ende, Jan; Verhulst, Frank C; Tiemeier, Henning

2016-08-01

Internalizing and externalizing problems are associated with poor academic performance, both concurrently and longitudinally. Important questions are whether problems precede academic performance or vice versa, whether both internalizing and externalizing are associated with academic problems when simultaneously tested, and whether associations and their direction depend on the informant providing information. These questions were addressed in a sample of 816 children who were assessed four times. The children were 6-10 years at baseline and 14-18 years at the last assessment. Parent-reported internalizing and externalizing problems and teacher-reported academic performance were tested in cross-lagged models to examine bidirectional paths between these constructs. These models were compared with cross-lagged models testing paths between teacher-reported internalizing and externalizing problems and parent-reported academic performance. Both final models revealed similar pathways from mostly externalizing problems to academic performance. No paths emerged from internalizing problems to academic performance. Moreover, paths from academic performance to internalizing and externalizing problems were only found when teachers reported on children's problems and not for parent-reported problems. Additional model tests revealed that paths were observed in both childhood and adolescence. Externalizing problems place children at increased risk of poor academic performance and should therefore be the target for interventions.

Bridging the etiologic and prognostic outlooks in individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness: application in lung cancer.

PubMed

Karp, Igor; Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Leffondré, Karen; Siemiatycki, Jack

2016-11-01

Assessment of individual risk of illness is an important activity in preventive medicine. Development of risk-assessment models has heretofore relied predominantly on studies involving follow-up of cohort-type populations, while case-control studies have generally been considered unfit for this purpose. To present a method for individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness (as illustrated by lung cancer) based on data from a 'non-nested' case-control study. We used data from a case-control study conducted in Montreal, Canada in 1996-2001. Individuals diagnosed with lung cancer (n = 920) and age- and sex-matched lung-cancer-free subjects (n = 1288) completed questionnaires documenting life-time cigarette-smoking history and occupational, medical, and family history. Unweighted and weighted logistic models were fitted. Model overfitting was assessed using bootstrap-based cross-validation and 'shrinkage.' The discriminating ability was assessed by the c-statistic, and the risk-stratifying performance was assessed by examination of the variability in risk estimates over hypothetical risk-profiles. In the logistic models, the logarithm of incidence-density of lung cancer was expressed as a function of age, sex, cigarette-smoking history, history of respiratory conditions and exposure to occupational carcinogens, and family history of lung cancer. The models entailed a minimal degree of overfitting ('shrinkage' factor: 0.97 for both unweighted and weighted models) and moderately high discriminating ability (c-statistic: 0.82 for the unweighted model and 0.66 for the weighted model). The method's risk-stratifying performance was quite high. The presented method allows for individualized assessment of risk of lung cancer and can be used for development of risk-assessment models for other illnesses.

The Role of Citizenship Performance in Academic Achievement and Graduate Employability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poropat, Arthur E.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Employability is a major educational goal, but employability programmes emphasise skill development, while employers value performance. Education acts as a model for employment, so educational performance assessment should be aligned with employment models. Consequently, the aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between…

Validation of a physically based catchment model for application in post-closure radiological safety assessments of deep geological repositories for solid radioactive wastes.

PubMed

Thorne, M C; Degnan, P; Ewen, J; Parkin, G

2000-12-01

The physically based river catchment modelling system SHETRAN incorporates components representing water flow, sediment transport and radionuclide transport both in solution and bound to sediments. The system has been applied to simulate hypothetical future catchments in the context of post-closure radiological safety assessments of a potential site for a deep geological disposal facility for intermediate and certain low-level radioactive wastes at Sellafield, west Cumbria. In order to have confidence in the application of SHETRAN for this purpose, various blind validation studies have been undertaken. In earlier studies, the validation was undertaken against uncertainty bounds in model output predictions set by the modelling team on the basis of how well they expected the model to perform. However, validation can also be carried out with bounds set on the basis of how well the model is required to perform in order to constitute a useful assessment tool. Herein, such an assessment-based validation exercise is reported. This exercise related to a field plot experiment conducted at Calder Hollow, west Cumbria, in which the migration of strontium and lanthanum in subsurface Quaternary deposits was studied on a length scale of a few metres. Blind predictions of tracer migration were compared with experimental results using bounds set by a small group of assessment experts independent of the modelling team. Overall, the SHETRAN system performed well, failing only two out of seven of the imposed tests. Furthermore, of the five tests that were not failed, three were positively passed even when a pessimistic view was taken as to how measurement errors should be taken into account. It is concluded that the SHETRAN system, which is still being developed further, is a powerful tool for application in post-closure radiological safety assessments.

Wastewater for agriculture: A reuse-oriented planning model and its application in peri-urban China.

PubMed

Murray, Ashley; Ray, Isha

2010-03-01

The benefits of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) are widely known but its recommendations remain thinly implemented. Designing wastewater treatment plants for reuse in irrigation is a particularly underutilized IWRM opportunity that could potentially increase agricultural yields, conserve surface water, offset chemical fertilizer demand, and reduce the costs of wastewater treatment by eliminating nutrient removal processes. This paper presents a novel planning model, consisting of a reuse-centric performance assessment and optimization model to help design wastewater treatment plants for reuse in agriculture. The performance assessment and optimization model are described, and their coupled application is demonstrated in the peri-urban district of Pixian, China. Based on the results of the performance assessment, two reuse scenarios are evaluated: wastewater to supplement business as usual (BAU) irrigation, and wastewater to replace BAU irrigation. The results indicate that wastewater supplementation could increase profits by $20 million (M) annually; alternatively, wastewater replacement could conserve 35Mm(3) of water in local rivers each year. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Online feedback assessments in physiology: effects on students' learning experiences and outcomes.

PubMed

Marden, Nicole Y; Ulman, Lesley G; Wilson, Fiona S; Velan, Gary M

2013-06-01

Online formative assessments have become increasingly popular; however, formal evidence supporting their educational benefits is limited. This study investigated the impact of online feedback quizzes on the learning experiences and outcomes of undergraduate students enrolled in an introductory physiology course. Four quiz models were tested, which differed in the amount of credit available, the number of attempts permitted, and whether the quizzes were invigilated or unsupervised, timed or untimed, or open or closed book. All quizzes were composed of multiple-choice questions and provided immediate individualized feedback. Summative end-of-course examination marks were analyzed with respect to performance in quizzes and were also compared with examination performance in the year before the quizzes were introduced. Online surveys were conducted to gather students' perceptions regarding the quizzes. The vast majority of students perceived online quizzes as a valuable learning tool. For all quiz models tested, there was a significant relationship between performance in quizzes and end-of-course examination scores. Importantly, students who performed poorly in quizzes were more likely to fail the examination, suggesting that formative online quizzes may be a useful tool to identify students in need of assistance. Of the four quiz models, only one quiz model was associated with a significant increase in mean examination performance. This model had the strongest formative focus, allowing multiple unsupervised and untimed attempts. This study suggests that the format of online formative assessments is critical in achieving the desired impact on student learning. Specifically, such assessments are most effective when they are low stakes.

In-Drift Microbial Communities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D. Jolley

2000-11-09

As directed by written work direction (CRWMS M and O 1999f), Performance Assessment (PA) developed a model for microbial communities in the engineered barrier system (EBS) as documented here. The purpose of this model is to assist Performance Assessment and its Engineered Barrier Performance Section in modeling the geochemical environment within a potential repository drift for TSPA-SR/LA, thus allowing PA to provide a more detailed and complete near-field geochemical model and to answer the key technical issues (KTI) raised in the NRC Issue Resolution Status Report (IRSR) for the Evolution of the Near Field Environment (NFE) Revision 2 (NRC 1999).more » This model and its predecessor (the in-drift microbial communities model as documented in Chapter 4 of the TSPA-VA Technical Basis Document, CRWMS M and O 1998a) was developed to respond to the applicable KTIs. Additionally, because of the previous development of the in-drift microbial communities model as documented in Chapter 4 of the TSPA-VA Technical Basis Document (CRWMS M and O 1998a), the M and O was effectively able to resolve a previous KTI concern regarding the effects of microbial processes on seepage and flow (NRC 1998). This document supercedes the in-drift microbial communities model as documented in Chapter 4 of the TSPA-VA Technical Basis Document (CRWMS M and O 1998a). This document provides the conceptual framework of the revised in-drift microbial communities model to be used in subsequent performance assessment (PA) analyses.« less

Deep Learning to Predict Falls in Older Adults Based on Daily-Life Trunk Accelerometry.

PubMed

Nait Aicha, Ahmed; Englebienne, Gwenn; van Schooten, Kimberley S; Pijnappels, Mirjam; Kröse, Ben

2018-05-22

Early detection of high fall risk is an essential component of fall prevention in older adults. Wearable sensors can provide valuable insight into daily-life activities; biomechanical features extracted from such inertial data have been shown to be of added value for the assessment of fall risk. Body-worn sensors such as accelerometers can provide valuable insight into fall risk. Currently, biomechanical features derived from accelerometer data are used for the assessment of fall risk. Here, we studied whether deep learning methods from machine learning are suited to automatically derive features from raw accelerometer data that assess fall risk. We used an existing dataset of 296 older adults. We compared the performance of three deep learning model architectures (convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and a combination of these two (ConvLSTM)) to each other and to a baseline model with biomechanical features on the same dataset. The results show that the deep learning models in a single-task learning mode are strong in recognition of identity of the subject, but that these models only slightly outperform the baseline method on fall risk assessment. When using multi-task learning, with gender and age as auxiliary tasks, deep learning models perform better. We also found that preprocessing of the data resulted in the best performance (AUC = 0.75). We conclude that deep learning models, and in particular multi-task learning, effectively assess fall risk on the basis of wearable sensor data.

Deep Learning to Predict Falls in Older Adults Based on Daily-Life Trunk Accelerometry

PubMed Central

Englebienne, Gwenn; Pijnappels, Mirjam

2018-01-01

Early detection of high fall risk is an essential component of fall prevention in older adults. Wearable sensors can provide valuable insight into daily-life activities; biomechanical features extracted from such inertial data have been shown to be of added value for the assessment of fall risk. Body-worn sensors such as accelerometers can provide valuable insight into fall risk. Currently, biomechanical features derived from accelerometer data are used for the assessment of fall risk. Here, we studied whether deep learning methods from machine learning are suited to automatically derive features from raw accelerometer data that assess fall risk. We used an existing dataset of 296 older adults. We compared the performance of three deep learning model architectures (convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and a combination of these two (ConvLSTM)) to each other and to a baseline model with biomechanical features on the same dataset. The results show that the deep learning models in a single-task learning mode are strong in recognition of identity of the subject, but that these models only slightly outperform the baseline method on fall risk assessment. When using multi-task learning, with gender and age as auxiliary tasks, deep learning models perform better. We also found that preprocessing of the data resulted in the best performance (AUC = 0.75). We conclude that deep learning models, and in particular multi-task learning, effectively assess fall risk on the basis of wearable sensor data. PMID:29786659

A Model for Situation and Threat Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

CUBRC , Inc.) 8151 Needwood #T103 Derwood, MD 20855 UNITED STATES steinberg@cubrc.org A model is presented for situation and threat assessment...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Subject Matter Expert (SME) Calspan-UB Research Center ( CUBRC , Inc.) 8151 Needwood #T103 Derwood, MD...1 A Model for Situation and Threat Assessment Alan Steinberg CUBRC , Inc. steinberg@cubrc.org November, 2005 2 Objectives • Advance the state-of

A Motivation Contract Model of Employee Appraisal.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glenn, Robert B.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a process model for identification and assessment of employee job performance, through motivation contracting. The model integrated various components of expectancy theories of motivation and performance contracting and is based on humanistic assumptions about the nature of people. More specifically, the…

EFFECTS OF VERTICAL-LAYER STRUCTURE AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS ON CMAQ-V4.5 AND V4.6 MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

This work is aimed at determining whether the increased vertical layers in CMAQ provides substantially improved model performance and assess whether using the spatially and temporally varying boundary conditions from GEOS-CHEM offer improved model performance as compared to the d...

Modeling of nitrate concentration in groundwater using artificial intelligence approach--a case study of Gaza coastal aquifer.

PubMed

Alagha, Jawad S; Said, Md Azlin Md; Mogheir, Yunes

2014-01-01

Nitrate concentration in groundwater is influenced by complex and interrelated variables, leading to great difficulty during the modeling process. The objectives of this study are (1) to evaluate the performance of two artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, namely artificial neural networks and support vector machine, in modeling groundwater nitrate concentration using scant input data, as well as (2) to assess the effect of data clustering as a pre-modeling technique on the developed models' performance. The AI models were developed using data from 22 municipal wells of the Gaza coastal aquifer in Palestine from 2000 to 2010. Results indicated high simulation performance, with the correlation coefficient and the mean average percentage error of the best model reaching 0.996 and 7 %, respectively. The variables that strongly influenced groundwater nitrate concentration were previous nitrate concentration, groundwater recharge, and on-ground nitrogen load of each land use land cover category in the well's vicinity. The results also demonstrated the merit of performing clustering of input data prior to the application of AI models. With their high performance and simplicity, the developed AI models can be effectively utilized to assess the effects of future management scenarios on groundwater nitrate concentration, leading to more reasonable groundwater resources management and decision-making.

Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS Preliminary Interstate Transport Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In this technical support document (TSD) EPA describes the air quality modeling performed to support the 2015 ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) preliminary interstate transport assessment Notice of Data Availability (NODA).

SMART empirical approaches for predicting field performance of PV modules from results of reliability tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardikar, Kedar Y.; Liu, Bill J. J.; Bheemreddy, Venkata

2016-09-01

Gaining an understanding of degradation mechanisms and their characterization are critical in developing relevant accelerated tests to ensure PV module performance warranty over a typical lifetime of 25 years. As newer technologies are adapted for PV, including new PV cell technologies, new packaging materials, and newer product designs, the availability of field data over extended periods of time for product performance assessment cannot be expected within the typical timeframe for business decisions. In this work, to enable product design decisions and product performance assessment for PV modules utilizing newer technologies, Simulation and Mechanism based Accelerated Reliability Testing (SMART) methodology and empirical approaches to predict field performance from accelerated test results are presented. The method is demonstrated for field life assessment of flexible PV modules based on degradation mechanisms observed in two accelerated tests, namely, Damp Heat and Thermal Cycling. The method is based on design of accelerated testing scheme with the intent to develop relevant acceleration factor models. The acceleration factor model is validated by extensive reliability testing under different conditions going beyond the established certification standards. Once the acceleration factor model is validated for the test matrix a modeling scheme is developed to predict field performance from results of accelerated testing for particular failure modes of interest. Further refinement of the model can continue as more field data becomes available. While the demonstration of the method in this work is for thin film flexible PV modules, the framework and methodology can be adapted to other PV products.

Assessing students' performance in software requirements engineering education using scoring rubrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mkpojiogu, Emmanuel O. C.; Hussain, Azham

2017-10-01

The study investigates how helpful the use of scoring rubrics is, in the performance assessment of software requirements engineering students and whether its use can lead to students' performance improvement in the development of software requirements artifacts and models. Scoring rubrics were used by two instructors to assess the cognitive performance of a student in the design and development of software requirements artifacts. The study results indicate that the use of scoring rubrics is very helpful in objectively assessing the performance of software requirements or software engineering students. Furthermore, the results revealed that the use of scoring rubrics can also produce a good achievement assessments direction showing whether a student is either improving or not in a repeated or iterative assessment. In a nutshell, its use leads to the performance improvement of students. The results provided some insights for further investigation and will be beneficial to researchers, requirements engineers, system designers, developers and project managers.

Assessing Multi-year Changes in Modeled and Observed Urban NOx Concentrations from a Dynamic Model Evaluation Perspective

EPA Science Inventory

An investigation of the concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from an air quality model and observations at monitoring sites was performed to assess the changes in NOx levels attributable to changes in mobile emissions. This evaluation effort focused on weekday morning rush hou...

MODELING ASSESSMENT OF TRANSPORT AND DEPOSITION PATTERNS OF MERCURY AIR EMISSIONS FROM THE U.S. AND CANADA

EPA Science Inventory

In December 1997, the U.S. EPA submitted the Mercury Study Report to Congress which included a regional-scale modeling assessment of the transport and deposition of U.S. air emissions of mercury. This modeling was performed with a modified version of the Regional Lagrangian Mode...

What Different Kinds of Stratification Can Reveal about the Generalizability of Data-Mined Skill Assessment Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sao Pedro, Michael A.; Baker, Ryan S. J. d.; Gobert, Janice D.

2013-01-01

When validating assessment models built with data mining, generalization is typically tested at the student-level, where models are tested on new students. This approach, though, may fail to find cases where model performance suffers if other aspects of those cases relevant to prediction are not well represented. We explore this here by testing if…

A Modular Simulation Framework for Assessing Swarm Search Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

SUBTITLE A MODULAR SIMULATION FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING SWARM SEARCH MODELS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Blake M. Wanier 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...Numerical studies demonstrate the ability to leverage the developed simulation and analysis framework to investigate three canonical swarm search models ...as benchmarks for future exploration of more sophisticated swarm search scenarios. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Swarm Search, Search Theory, Modeling Framework

Summary of photovoltaic system performance models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. H.; Reiter, L. J.

1984-01-01

A detailed overview of photovoltaics (PV) performance modeling capabilities developed for analyzing PV system and component design and policy issues is provided. A set of 10 performance models are selected which span a representative range of capabilities from generalized first order calculations to highly specialized electrical network simulations. A set of performance modeling topics and characteristics is defined and used to examine some of the major issues associated with photovoltaic performance modeling. Each of the models is described in the context of these topics and characteristics to assess its purpose, approach, and level of detail. The issues are discussed in terms of the range of model capabilities available and summarized in tabular form for quick reference. The models are grouped into categories to illustrate their purposes and perspectives.

Development of Flight-Test Performance Estimation Techniques for Small Unmanned Aerial Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCrink, Matthew Henry

This dissertation provides a flight-testing framework for assessing the performance of fixed-wing, small-scale unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) by leveraging sub-system models of components unique to these vehicles. The development of the sub-system models, and their links to broader impacts on sUAS performance, is the key contribution of this work. The sub-system modeling and analysis focuses on the vehicle's propulsion, navigation and guidance, and airframe components. Quantification of the uncertainty in the vehicle's power available and control states is essential for assessing the validity of both the methods and results obtained from flight-tests. Therefore, detailed propulsion and navigation system analyses are presented to validate the flight testing methodology. Propulsion system analysis required the development of an analytic model of the propeller in order to predict the power available over a range of flight conditions. The model is based on the blade element momentum (BEM) method. Additional corrections are added to the basic model in order to capture the Reynolds-dependent scale effects unique to sUAS. The model was experimentally validated using a ground based testing apparatus. The BEM predictions and experimental analysis allow for a parameterized model relating the electrical power, measurable during flight, to the power available required for vehicle performance analysis. Navigation system details are presented with a specific focus on the sensors used for state estimation, and the resulting uncertainty in vehicle state. Uncertainty quantification is provided by detailed calibration techniques validated using quasi-static and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) ground based testing. The HIL methods introduced use a soft real-time flight simulator to provide inertial quality data for assessing overall system performance. Using this tool, the uncertainty in vehicle state estimation based on a range of sensors, and vehicle operational environments is presented. The propulsion and navigation system models are used to evaluate flight-testing methods for evaluating fixed-wing sUAS performance. A brief airframe analysis is presented to provide a foundation for assessing the efficacy of the flight-test methods. The flight-testing presented in this work is focused on validating the aircraft drag polar, zero-lift drag coefficient, and span efficiency factor. Three methods are detailed and evaluated for estimating these design parameters. Specific focus is placed on the influence of propulsion and navigation system uncertainty on the resulting performance data. Performance estimates are used in conjunction with the propulsion model to estimate the impact sensor and measurement uncertainty on the endurance and range of a fixed-wing sUAS. Endurance and range results for a simplistic power available model are compared to the Reynolds-dependent model presented in this work. Additional parameter sensitivity analysis related to state estimation uncertainties encountered in flight-testing are presented. Results from these analyses indicate that the sub-system models introduced in this work are of first-order importance, on the order of 5-10% change in range and endurance, in assessing the performance of a fixed-wing sUAS.

Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume relative to the previous year. These results imply that such hazard maps have the potential to be valuable tools for policy makers and regulators in managing the seismic risks associated with unconventional oil and gas production.

Analysis of transient fission gas behaviour in oxide fuel using BISON and TRANSURANUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barani, T.; Bruschi, E.; Pizzocri, D.; Pastore, G.; Van Uffelen, P.; Williamson, R. L.; Luzzi, L.

2017-04-01

The modelling of fission gas behaviour is a crucial aspect of nuclear fuel performance analysis in view of the related effects on the thermo-mechanical performance of the fuel rod, which can be particularly significant during transients. In particular, experimental observations indicate that substantial fission gas release (FGR) can occur on a small time scale during transients (burst release). To accurately reproduce the rapid kinetics of the burst release process in fuel performance calculations, a model that accounts for non-diffusional mechanisms such as fuel micro-cracking is needed. In this work, we present and assess a model for transient fission gas behaviour in oxide fuel, which is applied as an extension of conventional diffusion-based models to introduce the burst release effect. The concept and governing equations of the model are presented, and the sensitivity of results to the newly introduced parameters is evaluated through an analytic sensitivity analysis. The model is assessed for application to integral fuel rod analysis by implementation in two structurally different fuel performance codes: BISON (multi-dimensional finite element code) and TRANSURANUS (1.5D code). Model assessment is based on the analysis of 19 light water reactor fuel rod irradiation experiments from the OECD/NEA IFPE (International Fuel Performance Experiments) database, all of which are simulated with both codes. The results point out an improvement in both the quantitative predictions of integral fuel rod FGR and the qualitative representation of the FGR kinetics with the transient model relative to the canonical, purely diffusion-based models of the codes. The overall quantitative improvement of the integral FGR predictions in the two codes is comparable. Moreover, calculated radial profiles of xenon concentration after irradiation are investigated and compared to experimental data, illustrating the underlying representation of the physical mechanisms of burst release.

Feasibility Assessment of a Fine-Grained Access Control Model on Resource Constrained Sensors.

PubMed

Uriarte Itzazelaia, Mikel; Astorga, Jasone; Jacob, Eduardo; Huarte, Maider; Romaña, Pedro

2018-02-13

Upcoming smart scenarios enabled by the Internet of Things (IoT) envision smart objects that provide services that can adapt to user behavior or be managed to achieve greater productivity. In such environments, smart things are inexpensive and, therefore, constrained devices. However, they are also critical components because of the importance of the information that they provide. Given this, strong security is a requirement, but not all security mechanisms in general and access control models in particular are feasible. In this paper, we present the feasibility assessment of an access control model that utilizes a hybrid architecture and a policy language that provides dynamic fine-grained policy enforcement in the sensors, which requires an efficient message exchange protocol called Hidra. This experimental performance assessment includes a prototype implementation, a performance evaluation model, the measurements and related discussions, which demonstrate the feasibility and adequacy of the analyzed access control model.

Feasibility Assessment of a Fine-Grained Access Control Model on Resource Constrained Sensors

PubMed Central

Huarte, Maider; Romaña, Pedro

2018-01-01

Upcoming smart scenarios enabled by the Internet of Things (IoT) envision smart objects that provide services that can adapt to user behavior or be managed to achieve greater productivity. In such environments, smart things are inexpensive and, therefore, constrained devices. However, they are also critical components because of the importance of the information that they provide. Given this, strong security is a requirement, but not all security mechanisms in general and access control models in particular are feasible. In this paper, we present the feasibility assessment of an access control model that utilizes a hybrid architecture and a policy language that provides dynamic fine-grained policy enforcement in the sensors, which requires an efficient message exchange protocol called Hidra. This experimental performance assessment includes a prototype implementation, a performance evaluation model, the measurements and related discussions, which demonstrate the feasibility and adequacy of the analyzed access control model. PMID:29438338

HRST architecture modeling and assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Comstock, D.A.

1997-01-01

This paper presents work supporting the assessment of advanced concept options for the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) study. It describes the development of computer models as the basis for creating an integrated capability to evaluate the economic feasibility and sustainability of a variety of system architectures. It summarizes modeling capabilities for use on the HRST study to perform sensitivity analysis of alternative architectures (consisting of different combinations of highly reusable vehicles, launch assist systems, and alternative operations and support concepts) in terms of cost, schedule, performance, and demand. In addition, the identification and preliminary assessment of alternative market segmentsmore » for HRST applications, such as space manufacturing, space tourism, etc., is described. Finally, the development of an initial prototype model that can begin to be used for modeling alternative HRST concepts at the system level is presented. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}« less

Field-based landslide susceptibility assessment in a data-scarce environment: the populated areas of the Rwenzori Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Poesen, Jean; Sekajugo, John; Nobile, Adriano; Rossi, Mauro; Thiery, Wim; Kervyn, Matthieu

2018-01-01

The inhabited zone of the Ugandan Rwenzori Mountains is affected by landslides, frequently causing loss of life, damage to infrastructure and loss of livelihood. This area of ca. 1230 km2 is characterized by contrasting geomorphologic, climatic and lithological patterns, resulting in different landslide types. In this study, the spatial pattern of landslide susceptibility is investigated based on an extensive field inventory constructed for five representative areas within the region (153 km2) and containing over 450 landslides. To achieve a reliable susceptibility assessment, the effects of (1) using different topographic data sources and spatial resolutions and (2) changing the scale of assessment by comparing local and regional susceptibility models on the susceptibility model performances are investigated using a pixel-based logistic regression approach. Topographic data are extracted from different digital elevation models (DEMs) based on radar interferometry (SRTM and TanDEM-X) and optical stereophotogrammetry (ASTER DEM). Susceptibility models using the radar-based DEMs tend to outperform the ones using the ASTER DEM. The model spatial resolution is varied between 10, 20, 30 and 90 m. The optimal resolution depends on the location of the investigated area within the region but the lowest model resolution (90 m) rarely yields the best model performances while the highest model resolution (10 m) never results in significant increases in performance compared to the 20 m resolution. Models built for the local case studies generally have similar or better performances than the regional model and better reflect site-specific controlling factors. At the regional level the effect of distinguishing landslide types between shallow and deep-seated landslides is investigated. The separation of landslide types allows us to improve model performances for the prediction of deep-seated landslides and to better understand factors influencing the occurrence of shallow landslides such as tangent curvature and total rainfall. Finally, the landslide susceptibility assessment is overlaid with a population density map in order to identify potential landslide risk hotspots, which could direct research and policy action towards reduced landslide risk in this under-researched, landslide-prone region.

Model Verification and Validation Concepts for a Probabilistic Fracture Assessment Model to Predict Cracking of Knife Edge Seals in the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Oxidizer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Riha, David S.

2013-01-01

Physics-based models are routinely used to predict the performance of engineered systems to make decisions such as when to retire system components, how to extend the life of an aging system, or if a new design will be safe or available. Model verification and validation (V&V) is a process to establish credibility in model predictions. Ideally, carefully controlled validation experiments will be designed and performed to validate models or submodels. In reality, time and cost constraints limit experiments and even model development. This paper describes elements of model V&V during the development and application of a probabilistic fracture assessment model to predict cracking in space shuttle main engine high-pressure oxidizer turbopump knife-edge seals. The objective of this effort was to assess the probability of initiating and growing a crack to a specified failure length in specific flight units for different usage and inspection scenarios. The probabilistic fracture assessment model developed in this investigation combined a series of submodels describing the usage, temperature history, flutter tendencies, tooth stresses and numbers of cycles, fatigue cracking, nondestructive inspection, and finally the probability of failure. The analysis accounted for unit-to-unit variations in temperature, flutter limit state, flutter stress magnitude, and fatigue life properties. The investigation focused on the calculation of relative risk rather than absolute risk between the usage scenarios. Verification predictions were first performed for three units with known usage and cracking histories to establish credibility in the model predictions. Then, numerous predictions were performed for an assortment of operating units that had flown recently or that were projected for future flights. Calculations were performed using two NASA-developed software tools: NESSUS(Registered Trademark) for the probabilistic analysis, and NASGRO(Registered Trademark) for the fracture mechanics analysis. The goal of these predictions was to provide additional information to guide decisions on the potential of reusing existing and installed units prior to the new design certification.

Specialized data analysis of SSME and advanced propulsion system vibration measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffin, Thomas; Swanson, Wayne L.; Jong, Yen-Yi

1993-01-01

The basic objectives of this contract were to perform detailed analysis and evaluation of dynamic data obtained during Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) test and flight operations, including analytical/statistical assessment of component dynamic performance, and to continue the development and implementation of analytical/statistical models to effectively define nominal component dynamic characteristics, detect anomalous behavior, and assess machinery operational conditions. This study was to provide timely assessment of engine component operational status, identify probable causes of malfunction, and define feasible engineering solutions. The work was performed under three broad tasks: (1) Analysis, Evaluation, and Documentation of SSME Dynamic Test Results; (2) Data Base and Analytical Model Development and Application; and (3) Development and Application of Vibration Signature Analysis Techniques.

Characterizing the performance of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson generalized linear model.

PubMed

Francis, Royce A; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Guikema, Seth D; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Lord, Dominique; LaRocca, Sarah

2012-01-01

Count data are pervasive in many areas of risk analysis; deaths, adverse health outcomes, infrastructure system failures, and traffic accidents are all recorded as count events, for example. Risk analysts often wish to estimate the probability distribution for the number of discrete events as part of doing a risk assessment. Traditional count data regression models of the type often used in risk assessment for this problem suffer from limitations due to the assumed variance structure. A more flexible model based on the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution was recently proposed, a model that has the potential to overcome the limitations of the traditional model. However, the statistical performance of this new model has not yet been fully characterized. This article assesses the performance of a maximum likelihood estimation method for fitting the COM-Poisson generalized linear model (GLM). The objectives of this article are to (1) characterize the parameter estimation accuracy of the MLE implementation of the COM-Poisson GLM, and (2) estimate the prediction accuracy of the COM-Poisson GLM using simulated data sets. The results of the study indicate that the COM-Poisson GLM is flexible enough to model under-, equi-, and overdispersed data sets with different sample mean values. The results also show that the COM-Poisson GLM yields accurate parameter estimates. The COM-Poisson GLM provides a promising and flexible approach for performing count data regression. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Model for Predicting Student Performance on High-Stakes Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dammann, Matthew Walter

2010-01-01

This research study examined the use of student achievement on reading and math state assessments to predict success on the science state assessment. Multiple regression analysis was utilized to test the prediction for all students in grades 5 and 8 in a mid-Atlantic state. The prediction model developed from the analysis explored the combined…

Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

PubMed

Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

2017-11-01

This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The influence of tyre characteristics on measures of rolling performance during cross-country mountain biking.

PubMed

Macdermid, Paul William; Fink, Philip W; Stannard, Stephen R

2015-01-01

This investigation sets out to assess the effect of five different models of mountain bike tyre on rolling performance over hard-pack mud. Independent characteristics included total weight, volume, tread surface area and tread depth. One male cyclist performed multiple (30) trials of a deceleration field test to assess reliability. Further tests performed on a separate occasion included multiple (15) trials of the deceleration test and six fixed power output hill climb tests for each tyre. The deceleration test proved to be reliable as a means of assessing rolling performance via differences in initial and final speed (coefficient of variation (CV) = 4.52%). Overall differences between tyre performance for both deceleration test (P = 0.014) and hill climb (P = 0.032) were found, enabling significant (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.049) models to be generated, allowing tyre performance prediction based on tyre characteristics. The ideal tyre for rolling and climbing performance on hard-pack surfaces would be to decrease tyre weight by way of reductions in tread surface area and tread depth while keeping volume high.

Seating Arrangement, Group Composition and Competition-driven Interaction: Effects on Students' Performance in Physics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roxas, R. M.; Monterola, C.; Carreon-Monterola, S. L.

2010-07-28

We probe the effect of seating arrangement, group composition and group-based competition on students' performance in Physics using a teaching technique adopted from Mazur's peer instruction method. Ninety eight lectures, involving 2339 students, were conducted across nine learning institutions from February 2006 to June 2009. All the lectures were interspersed with student interaction opportunities (SIO), in which students work in groups to discuss and answer concept tests. Two individual assessments were administered before and after the SIO. The ratio of the post-assessment score to the pre-assessment score and the Hake factor were calculated to establish the improvement in student performance.more » Using actual assessment results and neural network (NN) modeling, an optimal seating arrangement for a class was determined based on student seating location. The NN model also provided a quantifiable method for sectioning students. Lastly, the study revealed that competition-driven interactions increase within-group cooperation and lead to higher improvement on the students' performance.« less

SU-E-I-46: Sample-Size Dependence of Model Observers for Estimating Low-Contrast Detection Performance From CT Images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiser, I; Lu, Z

2014-06-01

Purpose: Recently, task-based assessment of diagnostic CT systems has attracted much attention. Detection task performance can be estimated using human observers, or mathematical observer models. While most models are well established, considerable bias can be introduced when performance is estimated from a limited number of image samples. Thus, the purpose of this work was to assess the effect of sample size on bias and uncertainty of two channelized Hotelling observers and a template-matching observer. Methods: The image data used for this study consisted of 100 signal-present and 100 signal-absent regions-of-interest, which were extracted from CT slices. The experimental conditions includedmore » two signal sizes and five different x-ray beam current settings (mAs). Human observer performance for these images was determined in 2-alternative forced choice experiments. These data were provided by the Mayo clinic in Rochester, MN. Detection performance was estimated from three observer models, including channelized Hotelling observers (CHO) with Gabor or Laguerre-Gauss (LG) channels, and a template-matching observer (TM). Different sample sizes were generated by randomly selecting a subset of image pairs, (N=20,40,60,80). Observer performance was quantified as proportion of correct responses (PC). Bias was quantified as the relative difference of PC for 20 and 80 image pairs. Results: For n=100, all observer models predicted human performance across mAs and signal sizes. Bias was 23% for CHO (Gabor), 7% for CHO (LG), and 3% for TM. The relative standard deviation, σ(PC)/PC at N=20 was highest for the TM observer (11%) and lowest for the CHO (Gabor) observer (5%). Conclusion: In order to make image quality assessment feasible in the clinical practice, a statistically efficient observer model, that can predict performance from few samples, is needed. Our results identified two observer models that may be suited for this task.« less

The Five-Factor Model Personality Assessment for Improved Student Design Team Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogot, Madara; Okudan, Gul E.

2006-01-01

Researchers have long noted the correlation of various personality traits and team performance. Studies relating aggregate team personality traits to team performance are scattered in the literature and may not always be relevant to engineering design teams. This paper synthesizes the results from applicable Five-Factor Model (FFM)-based…

Effects of Prompting Multiple Solutions for Modelling Problems on Students' Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schukajlow, Stanislaw; Krug, André; Rakoczy, Katrin

2015-01-01

Prompting students to construct multiple solutions for modelling problems with vague conditions has been found to be an effective way to improve students' performance on interest-oriented measures. In the current study, we investigated the influence of this teaching element on students' performance. To assess the impact of prompting multiple…

The model for Fundamentals of Endovascular Surgery (FEVS) successfully defines the competent endovascular surgeon.

PubMed

Duran, Cassidy; Estrada, Sean; O'Malley, Marcia; Sheahan, Malachi G; Shames, Murray L; Lee, Jason T; Bismuth, Jean

2015-12-01

Fundamental skills testing is now required for certification in general surgery. No model for assessing fundamental endovascular skills exists. Our objective was to develop a model that tests the fundamental endovascular skills and differentiates competent from noncompetent performance. The Fundamentals of Endovascular Surgery model was developed in silicon and virtual-reality versions. Twenty individuals (with a range of experience) performed four tasks on each model in three separate sessions. Tasks on the silicon model were performed under fluoroscopic guidance, and electromagnetic tracking captured motion metrics for catheter tip position. Image processing captured tool tip position and motion on the virtual model. Performance was evaluated using a global rating scale, blinded video assessment of error metrics, and catheter tip movement and position. Motion analysis was based on derivations of speed and position that define proficiency of movement (spectral arc length, duration of submovement, and number of submovements). Performance was significantly different between competent and noncompetent interventionalists for the three performance measures of motion metrics, error metrics, and global rating scale. The mean error metric score was 6.83 for noncompetent individuals and 2.51 for the competent group (P < .0001). Median global rating scores were 2.25 for the noncompetent group and 4.75 for the competent users (P < .0001). The Fundamentals of Endovascular Surgery model successfully differentiates competent and noncompetent performance of fundamental endovascular skills based on a series of objective performance measures. This model could serve as a platform for skills testing for all trainees. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Progress in simulating industrial flows using two-equation models: Can more be achieved with further research?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haroutunian, Vahe

1995-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides a brief review of two-equation eddy-viscosity models (TEM's) from the perspective of applied CFD. It provides objective assessment of both well-known and newer models, compares model predictions from various TEM's with experiments, identifies sources of modeling error and gives historical perspective of their effects on model performance and assessment, and recommends directions for future research on TEM's.

A study of performance assessment task organization in high school optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zawicki, Joseph Leo

2002-01-01

This investigation was undertaken to validate three performance assessment tasks in high school physics. The tasks that were studied were developed around three organizational models of performance assessments: integrated, independent and surrogate. The integrated model required students to answer questions, make observations and demonstrate skills related to the index of refraction of a particular material. All of the questions and activities the students completed were related to a sample of a particular plastic sample that was the focus of this task. The independent model is analogous to the station model that is currently used on three New York State assessments: the Grade 4 - Elementary Science Program Evaluation Test, the Intermediate Level Science (ILS) Test, and the Physical Setting: Earth Science Regents Exam. Students took measurements related to the index of refraction of a plastic sample that was the focus of the initial portion of this task; the remaining questions on the assessment were generally related to the concept of the index of refraction but did not refer back to the initial sample. The final task organization followed the surrogate model. In this model, students reviewed data that was collected and analyzed by other (fictitious) students. The students completing this task were asked to review the work presented on this assessment for errors; they evaluated the conclusions and statements presented on the assessment. Students were also asked to determine if the student work was acceptable or if this investigation should be repeated. Approximately 300 students from urban, suburban and rural districts across Western New York State participated in the study. The tasks were administered during the spring semester of the 2000--2001 school year. The participating schools had at least covered the topic of refraction, both in classroom lectures and in laboratory activities. Each student completed only one form of the task---either the integrated, the independent or the surrogate form. A set of ten questions, compiled from past New York State Regents Examinations in Physics, was used as an additional measurement of student conceptual understanding. This question set was identified as the "Optics Baseline Test" (OBT). Additionally, classroom teachers ranked the academic performance of each of the students in their classroom on the outcomes of the physics course; these rankings were compared with student scores on the performance assessment tasks. The process skills incorporated within the individual questions on each task were reviewed by a panel of expert teachers. Student scores on the tasks themselves were examined using a principal component analysis. This analysis provided support for the process skill subtests organized around the general process skills of planning, performing, and reasoning. Scoring guides and inter-rater reliabilities were established for each task. The reliabilities for tasks, subtests and questions were fairly high, indicting adequate task reliability. Correlations between student performance on the individual tasks and the OBT were not significant. Teacher ranking of student achievement in individual classrooms also failed to correlate significantly with student performance on tasks. The lack of correlation could be attributed to several factors, including (among others) a wide range of student opportunities to learn from the seven schools in the sample. As has been reported in the performance assessment literature, there were no significant differences between the performance of male and female students. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understandmore » from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.« less

Vodcasts and Active-Learning Exercises in a “Flipped Classroom” Model of a Renal Pharmacotherapy Module

PubMed Central

Fox, Jeremy

2012-01-01

Objective. To implement a “flipped classroom” model for a renal pharmacotherapy topic module and assess the impact on pharmacy students’ performance and attitudes. Design. Students viewed vodcasts (video podcasts) of lectures prior to the scheduled class and then discussed interactive cases of patients with end-stage renal disease in class. A process-oriented guided inquiry learning (POGIL) activity was developed and implemented that complemented, summarized, and allowed for application of the material contained in the previously viewed lectures. Assessment. Students’ performance on the final examination significantly improved compared to performance of students the previous year who completed the same module in a traditional classroom setting. Students’ opinions of the POGIL activity and the flipped classroom instructional model were mostly positive. Conclusion. Implementing a flipped classroom model to teach a renal pharmacotherapy module resulted in improved student performance and favorable student perceptions about the instructional approach. Some of the factors that may have contributed to students’ improved scores included: student mediated contact with the course material prior to classes, benchmark and formative assessments administered during the module, and the interactive class activities. PMID:23275661

Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

PubMed

MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

2018-02-01

The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

The development of performance-based practical assessment model at civil engineering workshop in state polytechnic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristinayanti, W. S.; Mas Pertiwi, I. G. A. I.; Evin Yudhi, S.; Lokantara, W. D.

2018-01-01

Assessment is an important element in education that shall oversees students’ competence not only in terms of cognitive aspect, but alsothe students’ psychomotorin a comprehensive way. Civil Engineering Department at Bali State Polytechnic,as a vocational education institution, emphasizes on not only the theoretical foundation of the study, but also the application throughpracticum in workshop-based learning. We are aware of a need for performance-based assessment for these students, which would be essential for the student’s all-round performance in their studies.We try to develop a performance-based practicum assessment model that is needed to assess student’s ability in workshop-based learning. This research was conducted in three stages, 1) learning needs analysis, 2) instruments development, and 3) testing of instruments. The study uses rubrics set-up to test students’ competence in the workshop and test the validity. We obtained 34-point valid statement out of 35, and resulted in value of Cronbach’s alpha equal to 0.977. In expert test we obtained a value of CVI = 0.75 which means that the drafted assessment is empirically valid within thetrial group.

Engineered Barrier System: Physical and Chemical Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

P. Dixon

2004-04-26

The conceptual and predictive models documented in this Engineered Barrier System: Physical and Chemical Environment Model report describe the evolution of the physical and chemical conditions within the waste emplacement drifts of the repository. The modeling approaches and model output data will be used in the total system performance assessment (TSPA-LA) to assess the performance of the engineered barrier system and the waste form. These models evaluate the range of potential water compositions within the emplacement drifts, resulting from the interaction of introduced materials and minerals in dust with water seeping into the drifts and with aqueous solutions forming bymore » deliquescence of dust (as influenced by atmospheric conditions), and from thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) processes in the drift. These models also consider the uncertainty and variability in water chemistry inside the drift and the compositions of introduced materials within the drift. This report develops and documents a set of process- and abstraction-level models that constitute the engineered barrier system: physical and chemical environment model. Where possible, these models use information directly from other process model reports as input, which promotes integration among process models used for total system performance assessment. Specific tasks and activities of modeling the physical and chemical environment are included in the technical work plan ''Technical Work Plan for: In-Drift Geochemistry Modeling'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 166519]). As described in the technical work plan, the development of this report is coordinated with the development of other engineered barrier system analysis model reports.« less

A biosphere modeling methodology for dose assessments of the potential Yucca Mountain deep geological high level radioactive waste repository.

PubMed

Watkins, B M; Smith, G M; Little, R H; Kessler, J

1999-04-01

Recent developments in performance standards for proposed high level radioactive waste disposal at Yucca Mountain suggest that health risk or dose rate limits will likely be part of future standards. Approaches to the development of biosphere modeling and dose assessments for Yucca Mountain have been relatively lacking in previous performance assessments due to the absence of such a requirement. This paper describes a practical methodology used to develop a biosphere model appropriate for calculating doses from use of well water by hypothetical individuals due to discharges of contaminated groundwater into a deep well. The biosphere model methodology, developed in parallel with the BIOMOVS II international study, allows a transparent recording of the decisions at each step, from the specification of the biosphere assessment context through to model development and analysis of results. A list of features, events, and processes relevant to Yucca Mountain was recorded and an interaction matrix developed to help identify relationships between them. Special consideration was given to critical/potential exposure group issues and approaches. The conceptual model of the biosphere system was then developed, based on the interaction matrix, to show how radionuclides migrate and accumulate in the biosphere media and result in potential exposure pathways. A mathematical dose assessment model was specified using the flexible AMBER software application, which allows users to construct their own compartment models. The starting point for the biosphere calculations was a unit flux of each radionuclide from the groundwater in the geosphere into the drinking water in the well. For each of the 26 radionuclides considered, the most significant exposure pathways for hypothetical individuals were identified. For 14 of the radionuclides, the primary exposure pathways were identified as consumption of various crops and animal products following assumed agricultural use of the contaminated water derived from the deep well. Inhalation of dust (11 radionuclides) and external irradiation (1 radionuclide) were also identified as significant exposure modes. Contribution to the total flux to dose conversion factor from the drinking water pathway for each radionuclide was also assessed and for most radionuclides was found to be less than 10% of the total flux to dose conversion factor summed across all pathways. Some of the uncertainties related to the results were considered. The biosphere modeling results have been applied within an EPRI Total Systems Performance Assessment of Yucca Mountain. Conclusions and recommendations for future performance assessments are provided.

Predictive models to assess risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity: machine-learning algorithms and validation using national health data from Kuwait--a cohort study.

PubMed

Farran, Bassam; Channanath, Arshad Mohamed; Behbehani, Kazem; Thanaraj, Thangavel Alphonse

2013-05-14

We build classification models and risk assessment tools for diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity using machine-learning algorithms on data from Kuwait. We model the increased proneness in diabetic patients to develop hypertension and vice versa. We ascertain the importance of ethnicity (and natives vs expatriate migrants) and of using regional data in risk assessment. Retrospective cohort study. Four machine-learning techniques were used: logistic regression, k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), multifactor dimensionality reduction and support vector machines. The study uses fivefold cross validation to obtain generalisation accuracies and errors. Kuwait Health Network (KHN) that integrates data from primary health centres and hospitals in Kuwait. 270 172 hospital visitors (of which, 89 858 are diabetic, 58 745 hypertensive and 30 522 comorbid) comprising Kuwaiti natives, Asian and Arab expatriates. Incident type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity. Classification accuracies of >85% (for diabetes) and >90% (for hypertension) are achieved using only simple non-laboratory-based parameters. Risk assessment tools based on k-NN classification models are able to assign 'high' risk to 75% of diabetic patients and to 94% of hypertensive patients. Only 5% of diabetic patients are seen assigned 'low' risk. Asian-specific models and assessments perform even better. Pathological conditions of diabetes in the general population or in hypertensive population and those of hypertension are modelled. Two-stage aggregate classification models and risk assessment tools, built combining both the component models on diabetes (or on hypertension), perform better than individual models. Data on diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity from the cosmopolitan State of Kuwait are available for the first time. This enabled us to apply four different case-control models to assess risks. These tools aid in the preliminary non-intrusive assessment of the population. Ethnicity is seen significant to the predictive models. Risk assessments need to be developed using regional data as we demonstrate the applicability of the American Diabetes Association online calculator on data from Kuwait.

External validation of preexisting first trimester preeclampsia prediction models.

PubMed

Allen, Rebecca E; Zamora, Javier; Arroyo-Manzano, David; Velauthar, Luxmilar; Allotey, John; Thangaratinam, Shakila; Aquilina, Joseph

2017-10-01

To validate the increasing number of prognostic models being developed for preeclampsia using our own prospective study. A systematic review of literature that assessed biomarkers, uterine artery Doppler and maternal characteristics in the first trimester for the prediction of preeclampsia was performed and models selected based on predefined criteria. Validation was performed by applying the regression coefficients that were published in the different derivation studies to our cohort. We assessed the models discrimination ability and calibration. Twenty models were identified for validation. The discrimination ability observed in derivation studies (Area Under the Curves) ranged from 0.70 to 0.96 when these models were validated against the validation cohort, these AUC varied importantly, ranging from 0.504 to 0.833. Comparing Area Under the Curves obtained in the derivation study to those in the validation cohort we found statistically significant differences in several studies. There currently isn't a definitive prediction model with adequate ability to discriminate for preeclampsia, which performs as well when applied to a different population and can differentiate well between the highest and lowest risk groups within the tested population. The pre-existing large number of models limits the value of further model development and future research should be focussed on further attempts to validate existing models and assessing whether implementation of these improves patient care. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of SFR Wire Wrap Simulation Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delchini, Marc-Olivier G.; Popov, Emilian L.; Pointer, William David

Predictive modeling and simulation of nuclear reactor performance and fuel are challenging due to the large number of coupled physical phenomena that must be addressed. Models that will be used for design or operational decisions must be analyzed for uncertainty to ascertain impacts to safety or performance. Rigorous, structured uncertainty analyses are performed by characterizing the model’s input uncertainties and then propagating the uncertainties through the model to estimate output uncertainty. This project is part of the ongoing effort to assess modeling uncertainty in Nek5000 simulations of flow configurations relevant to the advanced reactor applications of the Nuclear Energy Advancedmore » Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Three geometries are under investigation in these preliminary assessments: a 3-D pipe, a 3-D 7-pin bundle, and a single pin from the Thermal-Hydraulic Out-of-Reactor Safety (THORS) facility. Initial efforts have focused on gaining an understanding of Nek5000 modeling options and integrating Nek5000 with Dakota. These tasks are being accomplished by demonstrating the use of Dakota to assess parametric uncertainties in a simple pipe flow problem. This problem is used to optimize performance of the uncertainty quantification strategy and to estimate computational requirements for assessments of complex geometries. A sensitivity analysis to three turbulent models was conducted for a turbulent flow in a single wire wrapped pin (THOR) geometry. Section 2 briefly describes the software tools used in this study and provides appropriate references. Section 3 presents the coupling interface between Dakota and a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code (Nek5000 or STARCCM+), with details on the workflow, the scripts used for setting up the run, and the scripts used for post-processing the output files. In Section 4, the meshing methods used to generate the THORS and 7-pin bundle meshes are explained. Sections 5, 6 and 7 present numerical results for the 3-D pipe, the single pin THORS mesh, and the 7-pin bundle mesh, respectively.« less

Improving Learner Handovers in Medical Education.

PubMed

Warm, Eric J; Englander, Robert; Pereira, Anne; Barach, Paul

2017-07-01

Multiple studies have demonstrated that the information included in the Medical Student Performance Evaluation fails to reliably predict medical students' future performance. This faulty transfer of information can lead to harm when poorly prepared students fail out of residency or, worse, are shuttled through the medical education system without an honest accounting of their performance. Such poor learner handovers likely arise from two root causes: (1) the absence of agreed-on outcomes of training and/or accepted assessments of those outcomes, and (2) the lack of standardized ways to communicate the results of those assessments. To improve the current learner handover situation, an authentic, shared mental model of competency is needed; high-quality tools to assess that competency must be developed and tested; and transparent, reliable, and safe ways to communicate this information must be created.To achieve these goals, the authors propose using a learner handover process modeled after a patient handover process. The CLASS model includes a description of the learner's Competency attainment, a summary of the Learner's performance, an Action list and statement of Situational awareness, and Synthesis by the receiving program. This model also includes coaching oriented towards improvement along the continuum of education and care. Just as studies have evaluated patient handover models using metrics that matter most to patients, studies must evaluate this learner handover model using metrics that matter most to providers, patients, and learners.

Least-Squares Models to Correct for Rater Effects in Performance Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raymond, Mark R.; Viswesvaran, Chockalingam

This study illustrates the use of three least-squares models to control for rater effects in performance evaluation: (1) ordinary least squares (OLS); (2) weighted least squares (WLS); and (3) OLS subsequent to applying a logistic transformation to observed ratings (LOG-OLS). The three models were applied to ratings obtained from four…

DeepQA: improving the estimation of single protein model quality with deep belief networks.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Hou, Jie; Cheng, Jianlin

2016-12-05

Protein quality assessment (QA) useful for ranking and selecting protein models has long been viewed as one of the major challenges for protein tertiary structure prediction. Especially, estimating the quality of a single protein model, which is important for selecting a few good models out of a large model pool consisting of mostly low-quality models, is still a largely unsolved problem. We introduce a novel single-model quality assessment method DeepQA based on deep belief network that utilizes a number of selected features describing the quality of a model from different perspectives, such as energy, physio-chemical characteristics, and structural information. The deep belief network is trained on several large datasets consisting of models from the Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiments, several publicly available datasets, and models generated by our in-house ab initio method. Our experiments demonstrate that deep belief network has better performance compared to Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks on the protein model quality assessment problem, and our method DeepQA achieves the state-of-the-art performance on CASP11 dataset. It also outperformed two well-established methods in selecting good outlier models from a large set of models of mostly low quality generated by ab initio modeling methods. DeepQA is a useful deep learning tool for protein single model quality assessment and protein structure prediction. The source code, executable, document and training/test datasets of DeepQA for Linux is freely available to non-commercial users at http://cactus.rnet.missouri.edu/DeepQA/ .

Towards A Complete Model Of Photopic Visual Threshold Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overington, I.

1982-02-01

Based on a wide variety of fragmentary evidence taken from psycho-physics, neurophysiology and electron microscopy, it has been possible to put together a very widely applicable conceptual model of photopic visual threshold performance. Such a model is so complex that a single comprehensive mathematical version is excessively cumbersome. It is, however, possible to set up a suite of related mathematical models, each of limited application but strictly known envelope of usage. Such models may be used for assessment of a variety of facets of visual performance when using display imagery, including effects and interactions of image quality, random and discrete display noise, viewing distance, image motion, etc., both for foveal interrogation tasks and for visual search tasks. The specific model may be selected from the suite according to the assessment task in hand. The paper discusses in some depth the major facets of preperceptual visual processing and their interaction with instrumental image quality and noise. It then highlights the statistical nature of visual performance before going on to consider a number of specific mathematical models of partial visual function. Where appropriate, these are compared with widely popular empirical models of visual function.

Comparison of the Predictive Performance and Interpretability of Random Forest and Linear Models on Benchmark Data Sets.

PubMed

Marchese Robinson, Richard L; Palczewska, Anna; Palczewski, Jan; Kidley, Nathan

2017-08-28

The ability to interpret the predictions made by quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) offers a number of advantages. While QSARs built using nonlinear modeling approaches, such as the popular Random Forest algorithm, might sometimes be more predictive than those built using linear modeling approaches, their predictions have been perceived as difficult to interpret. However, a growing number of approaches have been proposed for interpreting nonlinear QSAR models in general and Random Forest in particular. In the current work, we compare the performance of Random Forest to those of two widely used linear modeling approaches: linear Support Vector Machines (SVMs) (or Support Vector Regression (SVR)) and partial least-squares (PLS). We compare their performance in terms of their predictivity as well as the chemical interpretability of the predictions using novel scoring schemes for assessing heat map images of substructural contributions. We critically assess different approaches for interpreting Random Forest models as well as for obtaining predictions from the forest. We assess the models on a large number of widely employed public-domain benchmark data sets corresponding to regression and binary classification problems of relevance to hit identification and toxicology. We conclude that Random Forest typically yields comparable or possibly better predictive performance than the linear modeling approaches and that its predictions may also be interpreted in a chemically and biologically meaningful way. In contrast to earlier work looking at interpretation of nonlinear QSAR models, we directly compare two methodologically distinct approaches for interpreting Random Forest models. The approaches for interpreting Random Forest assessed in our article were implemented using open-source programs that we have made available to the community. These programs are the rfFC package ( https://r-forge.r-project.org/R/?group_id=1725 ) for the R statistical programming language and the Python program HeatMapWrapper [ https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.495163 ] for heat map generation.

Wearable-Sensor-Based Classification Models of Faller Status in Older Adults.

PubMed

Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D; Kofman, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Wearable sensors have potential for quantitative, gait-based, point-of-care fall risk assessment that can be easily and quickly implemented in clinical-care and older-adult living environments. This investigation generated models for wearable-sensor based fall-risk classification in older adults and identified the optimal sensor type, location, combination, and modelling method; for walking with and without a cognitive load task. A convenience sample of 100 older individuals (75.5 ± 6.7 years; 76 non-fallers, 24 fallers based on 6 month retrospective fall occurrence) walked 7.62 m under single-task and dual-task conditions while wearing pressure-sensing insoles and tri-axial accelerometers at the head, pelvis, and left and right shanks. Participants also completed the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale, Community Health Activities Model Program for Seniors questionnaire, six minute walk test, and ranked their fear of falling. Fall risk classification models were assessed for all sensor combinations and three model types: multi-layer perceptron neural network, naïve Bayesian, and support vector machine. The best performing model was a multi-layer perceptron neural network with input parameters from pressure-sensing insoles and head, pelvis, and left shank accelerometers (accuracy = 84%, F1 score = 0.600, MCC score = 0.521). Head sensor-based models had the best performance of the single-sensor models for single-task gait assessment. Single-task gait assessment models outperformed models based on dual-task walking or clinical assessment data. Support vector machines and neural networks were the best modelling technique for fall risk classification. Fall risk classification models developed for point-of-care environments should be developed using support vector machines and neural networks, with a multi-sensor single-task gait assessment.

Training Self-Regulated Learning Skills with Video Modeling Examples: Do Task-Selection Skills Transfer?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raaijmakers, Steven F.; Baars, Martine; Schaap, Lydia; Paas, Fred; van Merriënboer, Jeroen; van Gog, Tamara

2018-01-01

Self-assessment and task-selection skills are crucial in self-regulated learning situations in which students can choose their own tasks. Prior research suggested that training with video modeling examples, in which another person (the model) demonstrates and explains the cyclical process of problem-solving task performance, self-assessment, and…

Assessing the Performance of a Computer-Based Policy Model of HIV and AIDS

PubMed Central

Rydzak, Chara E.; Cotich, Kara L.; Sax, Paul E.; Hsu, Heather E.; Wang, Bingxia; Losina, Elena; Freedberg, Kenneth A.; Weinstein, Milton C.; Goldie, Sue J.

2010-01-01

Background Model-based analyses, conducted within a decision analytic framework, provide a systematic way to combine information about the natural history of disease and effectiveness of clinical management strategies with demographic and epidemiological characteristics of the population. Among the challenges with disease-specific modeling include the need to identify influential assumptions and to assess the face validity and internal consistency of the model. Methods and Findings We describe a series of exercises involved in adapting a computer-based simulation model of HIV disease to the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) cohort and assess model performance as we re-parameterized the model to address policy questions in the U.S. relevant to HIV-infected women using data from the WIHS. Empiric calibration targets included 24-month survival curves stratified by treatment status and CD4 cell count. The most influential assumptions in untreated women included chronic HIV-associated mortality following an opportunistic infection, and in treated women, the ‘clinical effectiveness’ of HAART and the ability of HAART to prevent HIV complications independent of virologic suppression. Good-fitting parameter sets required reductions in the clinical effectiveness of 1st and 2nd line HAART and improvements in 3rd and 4th line regimens. Projected rates of treatment regimen switching using the calibrated cohort-specific model closely approximated independent analyses published using data from the WIHS. Conclusions The model demonstrated good internal consistency and face validity, and supported cohort heterogeneities that have been reported in the literature. Iterative assessment of model performance can provide information about the relative influence of uncertain assumptions and provide insight into heterogeneities within and between cohorts. Description of calibration exercises can enhance the transparency of disease-specific models. PMID:20844741

Assessing the performance of a computer-based policy model of HIV and AIDS.

PubMed

Rydzak, Chara E; Cotich, Kara L; Sax, Paul E; Hsu, Heather E; Wang, Bingxia; Losina, Elena; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Weinstein, Milton C; Goldie, Sue J

2010-09-09

Model-based analyses, conducted within a decision analytic framework, provide a systematic way to combine information about the natural history of disease and effectiveness of clinical management strategies with demographic and epidemiological characteristics of the population. Among the challenges with disease-specific modeling include the need to identify influential assumptions and to assess the face validity and internal consistency of the model. We describe a series of exercises involved in adapting a computer-based simulation model of HIV disease to the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) cohort and assess model performance as we re-parameterized the model to address policy questions in the U.S. relevant to HIV-infected women using data from the WIHS. Empiric calibration targets included 24-month survival curves stratified by treatment status and CD4 cell count. The most influential assumptions in untreated women included chronic HIV-associated mortality following an opportunistic infection, and in treated women, the 'clinical effectiveness' of HAART and the ability of HAART to prevent HIV complications independent of virologic suppression. Good-fitting parameter sets required reductions in the clinical effectiveness of 1st and 2nd line HAART and improvements in 3rd and 4th line regimens. Projected rates of treatment regimen switching using the calibrated cohort-specific model closely approximated independent analyses published using data from the WIHS. The model demonstrated good internal consistency and face validity, and supported cohort heterogeneities that have been reported in the literature. Iterative assessment of model performance can provide information about the relative influence of uncertain assumptions and provide insight into heterogeneities within and between cohorts. Description of calibration exercises can enhance the transparency of disease-specific models.

Development and Validity of a Silicone Renal Tumor Model for Robotic Partial Nephrectomy Training.

PubMed

Monda, Steven M; Weese, Jonathan R; Anderson, Barrett G; Vetter, Joel M; Venkatesh, Ramakrishna; Du, Kefu; Andriole, Gerald L; Figenshau, Robert S

2018-04-01

To provide a training tool to address the technical challenges of robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy, we created silicone renal tumor models using 3-dimensional printed molds of a patient's kidney with a mass. In this study, we assessed the face, content, and construct validity of these models. Surgeons of different training levels completed 4 simulations on silicone renal tumor models. Participants were surveyed on the usefulness and realism of the model as a training tool. Performance was measured using operation-specific metrics, self-reported operative demands (NASA Task Load Index [NASA TLX]), and blinded expert assessment (Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotic Surgeons [GEARS]). Twenty-four participants included attending urologists, endourology fellows, urology residents, and medical students. Post-training surveys of expert participants yielded mean results of 79.2 on the realism of the model's overall feel and 90.2 on the model's overall usefulness for training. Renal artery clamp times and GEARS scores were significantly better in surgeons further in training (P ≤.005 and P ≤.025). Renal artery clamp times, preserved renal parenchyma, positive margins, NASA TLX, and GEARS scores were all found to improve across trials (P <.001, P = .025, P = .024, P ≤.020, and P ≤.006, respectively). Face, content, and construct validity were demonstrated in the use of a silicone renal tumor model in a cohort of surgeons of different training levels. Expert participants deemed the model useful and realistic. Surgeons of higher training levels performed better than less experienced surgeons in various study metrics, and improvements within individuals were observed over sequential trials. Future studies should aim to assess model predictive validity, namely, the association between model performance improvements and improvements in live surgery. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring the ROI on Knowledge Management Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wickhorst, Vickie

2002-01-01

Defines knowledge management and corporate portals and provides a model that can be applied to assessing return on investment (ROI) for a knowledge management solution. Highlights include leveraging knowledge in an organization; assessing the value of human capital; and the Intellectual Capital Performance Measurement Model. (LRW)

Regime-based evaluation of cloudiness in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Daeho; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dongmin

2017-01-01

The concept of cloud regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating in each grid cell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product [long-term average total cloud amount (TCA)], cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our results support previous findings that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is still not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP like another model output. Lastly, contrasting cloud simulation performance against each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter, yields no clear conclusions.

Integrating in silico models to enhance predictivity for developmental toxicity.

PubMed

Marzo, Marco; Kulkarni, Sunil; Manganaro, Alberto; Roncaglioni, Alessandra; Wu, Shengde; Barton-Maclaren, Tara S; Lester, Cathy; Benfenati, Emilio

2016-08-31

Application of in silico models to predict developmental toxicity has demonstrated limited success particularly when employed as a single source of information. It is acknowledged that modelling the complex outcomes related to this endpoint is a challenge; however, such models have been developed and reported in the literature. The current study explored the possibility of integrating the selected public domain models (CAESAR, SARpy and P&G model) with the selected commercial modelling suites (Multicase, Leadscope and Derek Nexus) to assess if there is an increase in overall predictive performance. The results varied according to the data sets used to assess performance which improved upon model integration relative to individual models. Moreover, because different models are based on different specific developmental toxicity effects, integration of these models increased the applicable chemical and biological spaces. It is suggested that this approach reduces uncertainty associated with in silico predictions by achieving a consensus among a battery of models. The use of tools to assess the applicability domain also improves the interpretation of the predictions. This has been verified in the case of the software VEGA, which makes freely available QSAR models with a measurement of the applicability domain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Effectiveness and Limitations of Habitat Suitability Models for Wetland Restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draugelis-Dale, Rassa O.

2008-01-01

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models developed for wildlife in the Louisiana Coastal Area Comprehensive Ecosystem Restoration Plan (LCA study) have been assessed for parameter and overall model quality. The success of the suitability models from the South Florida Water Management District for The Everglades restoration project and from the Spatially Explicit Species Index Models (SESI) of the Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS) Program of Florida warranted investigation with possible application of modeling theory to the current LCA study. General HSI models developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service were also investigated. This report presents examinations of theoretical formulae and comparisons of the models, performed by using diverse hypothetical settings of hydrological/biological ecosystems to highlight weaknesses as well as strengths among the models, limited to the American alligator and selected wading bird species (great blue heron, great egret, and white ibis). Recommendations were made for the LCA study based on these assessments. An enhanced HSI model for the LCA study is proposed for the American alligator, and a new HSI model for wading birds is introduced for the LCA study. Performance comparisons of the proposed models with the other suitability models are made by using the aforementioned hypothetical settings.

Ares I-X Upper Stage Simulator Structural Analyses Supporting the NESC Critical Initial Flaw Size Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Phillips, Dawn R.; Raju, Ivatury S.

2008-01-01

The structural analyses described in the present report were performed in support of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Critical Initial Flaw Size (CIFS) assessment for the ARES I-X Upper Stage Simulator (USS) common shell segment. The structural analysis effort for the NESC assessment had three thrusts: shell buckling analyses, detailed stress analyses of the single-bolt joint test; and stress analyses of two-segment 10 degree-wedge models for the peak axial tensile running load. Elasto-plastic, large-deformation simulations were performed. Stress analysis results indicated that the stress levels were well below the material yield stress for the bounding axial tensile design load. This report also summarizes the analyses and results from parametric studies on modeling the shell-to-gusset weld, flange-surface mismatch, bolt preload, and washer-bearing-surface modeling. These analyses models were used to generate the stress levels specified for the fatigue crack growth assessment using the design load with a factor of safety.

Training and Assessment of Hysteroscopic Skills: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Savran, Mona Meral; Sørensen, Stine Maya Dreier; Konge, Lars; Tolsgaard, Martin G; Bjerrum, Flemming

2016-01-01

The aim of this systematic review was to identify studies on hysteroscopic training and assessment. PubMed, Excerpta Medica, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched in January 2015. Manual screening of references and citation tracking were also performed. Studies on hysteroscopic educational interventions were selected without restrictions on study design, populations, language, or publication year. A qualitative data synthesis including the setting, study participants, training model, training characteristics, hysteroscopic skills, assessment parameters, and study outcomes was performed by 2 authors working independently. Effect sizes were calculated when possible. Overall, 2 raters independently evaluated sources of validity evidence supporting the outcomes of the hysteroscopy assessment tools. A total of 25 studies on hysteroscopy training were identified, of which 23 were performed in simulated settings. Overall, 10 studies used virtual-reality simulators and reported effect sizes for technical skills ranging from 0.31 to 2.65; 12 used inanimate models and reported effect sizes for technical skills ranging from 0.35 to 3.19. One study involved live animal models; 2 studies were performed in clinical settings. The validity evidence supporting the assessment tools used was low. Consensus between the 2 raters on the reported validity evidence was high (94%). This systematic review demonstrated large variations in the effect of different tools for hysteroscopy training. The validity evidence supporting the assessment of hysteroscopic skills was limited. Copyright © 2016 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

2018-01-01

AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and frameworks continue to be refined, performance assessments and validation efforts should focus on the measures of risk and vulnerability useful for decision-making.

A Probabilistic Performance Assessment Study of Potential Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowlton, R. G.; Arnold, B. W.; Mattie, P. D.; Kuo, M.; Tien, N.

2006-12-01

For several years now, Taiwan has been engaged in a process to select a low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal site. Taiwan is generating LLW from operational and decommissioning wastes associated with nuclear power reactors, as well as research, industrial, and medical radioactive wastes. The preliminary selection process has narrowed the search to four potential candidate sites. These sites are to be evaluated in a performance assessment analysis to determine the likelihood of meeting the regulatory criteria for disposal. Sandia National Laboratories and Taiwan's Institute of Nuclear Energy Research have been working together to develop the necessary performance assessment methodology and associated computer models to perform these analyses. The methodology utilizes both deterministic (e.g., single run) and probabilistic (e.g., multiple statistical realizations) analyses to achieve the goals. The probabilistic approach provides a means of quantitatively evaluating uncertainty in the model predictions and a more robust basis for performing sensitivity analyses to better understand what is driving the dose predictions from the models. Two types of disposal configurations are under consideration: a shallow land burial concept and a cavern disposal concept. The shallow land burial option includes a protective cover to limit infiltration potential to the waste. Both conceptual designs call for the disposal of 55 gallon waste drums within concrete lined trenches or tunnels, and backfilled with grout. Waste emplaced in the drums may be solidified. Both types of sites are underlain or placed within saturated fractured bedrock material. These factors have influenced the conceptual model development of each site, as well as the selection of the models to employ for the performance assessment analyses. Several existing codes were integrated in order to facilitate a comprehensive performance assessment methodology to evaluate the potential disposal sites. First, a need existed to simulate the failure processes of the waste containers, with subsequent leaching of the waste form to the underlying host rock. The Breach, Leach, and Transport Multiple Species (BLT-MS) code was selected to meet these needs. BLT-MS also has a 2-D finite-element advective-dispersive transport module, with radionuclide in-growth and decay. BLT-MS does not solve the groundwater flow equation, but instead requires the input of Darcy flow velocity terms. These terms were abstracted from a groundwater flow model using the FEHM code. For the shallow land burial site, the HELP code was also used to evaluate the performance of the protective cover. The GoldSim code was used for two purposes: quantifying uncertainties in the predictions, and providing a platform to evaluate an alternative conceptual model involving matrix-diffusion transport. Results of the preliminary performance assessment analyses using examples to illustrate the computational framework will be presented. Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE AC04 94AL85000.

Prediction of Transonic Vortex Flows Using Linear and Nonlinear Turbulent Eddy Viscosity Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartels, Robert E.; Gatski, Thomas B.

2000-01-01

Three-dimensional transonic flow over a delta wing is investigated with a focus on the effect of transition and influence of turbulence stress anisotropies. The performance of linear eddy viscosity models and an explicit algebraic stress model is assessed at the start of vortex flow, and the results compared with experimental data. To assess the effect of transition location, computations that either fix transition or are fully turbulent are performed. To assess the effect of the turbulent stress anisotropy, comparisons are made between predictions from the algebraic stress model and the linear eddy viscosity models. Both transition location and turbulent stress anisotropy significantly affect the 3D flow field. The most significant effect is found to be the modeling of transition location. At a Mach number of 0.90, the computed solution changes character from steady to unsteady depending on transition onset. Accounting for the anisotropies in the turbulent stresses also considerably impacts the flow, most notably in the outboard region of flow separation.

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "/FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

A systematic analysis of model performance during simulations based on observed landcover/use change is used to quantify errors associated with simulations of known "future" conditions. Calibrated and uncalibrated assessments of relative change over different lengths of...

Stata Modules for Calculating Novel Predictive Performance Indices for Logistic Models.

PubMed

Barkhordari, Mahnaz; Padyab, Mojgan; Hadaegh, Farzad; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bozorgmanesh, Mohammadreza

2016-01-01

Prediction is a fundamental part of prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The development of prediction algorithms based on the multivariate regression models loomed several decades ago. Parallel with predictive models development, biomarker researches emerged in an impressively great scale. The key question is how best to assess and quantify the improvement in risk prediction offered by new biomarkers or more basically how to assess the performance of a risk prediction model. Discrimination, calibration, and added predictive value have been recently suggested to be used while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models' with and without novel biomarkers. Lack of user-friendly statistical software has restricted implementation of novel model assessment methods while examining novel biomarkers. We intended, thus, to develop a user-friendly software that could be used by researchers with few programming skills. We have written a Stata command that is intended to help researchers obtain cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index and (NRI) and relative and absolute Integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI) for logistic-based regression analyses.We applied the commands to a real data on women participating the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information of a family history of premature CVD, waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of the Framingham's "general CVD risk" algorithm. The command is addpred for logistic regression models. The Stata package provided herein can encourage the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of ever-emerging plethora of novel biomarkers.

Proposed evaluation framework for assessing operator performance with multisensor displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foyle, David C.

1992-01-01

Despite aggressive work on the development of sensor fusion algorithms and techniques, no formal evaluation procedures have been proposed. Based on existing integration models in the literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess an operator's ability to use multisensor, or sensor fusion, displays. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The operator's performance with the sensor fusion display can be compared to the models' predictions based on the operator's performance when viewing the original sensor displays prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: 1) poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays (clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference); 2) better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal (compared to the model predictions) level; 3) optimal performance (compared to model predictions); or, 4) super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays. An experiment demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed evaluation framework is discussed.

The Role of Digital 3D Scanned Models in Dental Students' Self-Assessments in Preclinical Operative Dentistry.

PubMed

Lee, Cliff; Kobayashi, Hiro; Lee, Samuel R; Ohyama, Hiroe

2018-04-01

The aim of this study was to determine how dental student self-assessment and faculty assessment of operative preparations compared for conventional visual assessment versus assessment of scanned digital 3D models. In 2016, all third-year students in the Class of 2018 (N=35) at Harvard School of Dental Medicine performed preclinical exams of Class II amalgam preparations (C2AP) and Class III composite preparations (C3CP) and completed self-assessment forms; in 2017, all third-year students in the Class of 2019 (N=34) performed the same exams. Afterwards, the prepared typodont teeth were digitally scanned. Students self-assessed their preparations digitally, and four faculty members graded the preparations conventionally and digitally. The results showed that, overall, the students assessed their preparations higher than the faculty assessments. The mean student-faculty gaps for C2AP and C3CP in the conventional assessments were 11% and 5%, respectively. The mean digital student-faculty gap for C2AP and C3CP were 8% and 2%, respectively. In the conventional assessments, preclinical performance was negatively correlated with the student-faculty gap (r=-0.47, p<0.001). The correlations were not statistically significant with the digital assessments (p=0.39, p=0.26). Students in the bottom quartile significantly improved their self-assessment accuracy using digital self-assessments over conventional assessments (C2AP 10% vs. 17% and C3CP 3% vs. 10%, respectively). These results suggest that digital assessments offered a significant learning opportunity for students to critically self-assess themselves in operative preclinical dentistry. The lower performing students benefitted the most, improving their assessment ability to the level of the rest of the class.

Using Think Aloud Interviews in Evidence-Centered Assessment Design for the AP World History Exam

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaliski, Pamela; France, Megan; Huff, Kristen; Thurber, Allison

2011-01-01

Developing a cognitive model of task performance is an important and often overlooked phase in assessment design; failing to establish such a model can threaten the validity of the inferences made from the scores produced by an assessment (e.g., Leighton, 2004). Conducting think aloud interviews (TAIs), where students think aloud while completing…

The College President's Critical Role in Modeling Assessment: A Lesson in Leadership by Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Somera, R. Ray D.

2007-01-01

The college president's role in supporting and promoting student learning outcomes and institutional assessment is a herculean one. At Guam Community College (GCC), the president has been performing a crucial role in setting an assessment example for the rest of the college community since he took office on June 16, 2001. Seeking to model an…

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST): Structural-Thermal-Optical Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, John D.; Parrish, Keith; Howard, Joseph M.; Mosier, Gary E.; McGinnis, Mark; Bluth, Marcel; Kim, Kevin; Ha, Hong Q.

2004-01-01

This is a continuation of a series of papers on modeling activities for JWST. The structural-thermal- optical, often referred to as "STOP", analysis process is used to predict the effect of thermal distortion on optical performance. The benchmark STOP analysis for JWST assesses the effect of an observatory slew on wavefront error. The paper begins an overview of multi-disciplinary engineering analysis, or integrated modeling, which is a critical element of the JWST mission. The STOP analysis process is then described. This process consists of the following steps: thermal analysis, structural analysis, and optical analysis. Temperatures predicted using geometric and thermal math models are mapped to the structural finite element model in order to predict thermally-induced deformations. Motions and deformations at optical surfaces are input to optical models and optical performance is predicted using either an optical ray trace or WFE estimation techniques based on prior ray traces or first order optics. Following the discussion of the analysis process, results based on models representing the design at the time of the System Requirements Review. In addition to baseline performance predictions, sensitivity studies are performed to assess modeling uncertainties. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of optical performance to uncertainties in temperature predictions and variations in metal properties. The paper concludes with a discussion of modeling uncertainty as it pertains to STOP analysis.

Benchmarking hydrological model predictive capability for UK River flows and flood peaks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, Rosanna; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Data and hydrological models are now available for national hydrological analyses. However, hydrological model performance varies between catchments, and lumped, conceptual models are not able to produce adequate simulations everywhere. This study aims to benchmark hydrological model performance for catchments across the United Kingdom within an uncertainty analysis framework. We have applied four hydrological models from the FUSE framework to 1128 catchments across the UK. These models are all lumped models and run at a daily timestep, but differ in the model structural architecture and process parameterisations, therefore producing different but equally plausible simulations. We apply FUSE over a 20 year period from 1988-2008, within a GLUE Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses framework. Model performance was evaluated for each catchment, model structure and parameter set using standard performance metrics. These were calculated both for the whole time series and to assess seasonal differences in model performance. The GLUE uncertainty analysis framework was then applied to produce simulated 5th and 95th percentile uncertainty bounds for the daily flow time-series and additionally the annual maximum prediction bounds for each catchment. The results show that the model performance varies significantly in space and time depending on catchment characteristics including climate, geology and human impact. We identify regions where models are systematically failing to produce good results, and present reasons why this could be the case. We also identify regions or catchment characteristics where one model performs better than others, and have explored what structural component or parameterisation enables certain models to produce better simulations in these catchments. Model predictive capability was assessed for each catchment, through looking at the ability of the models to produce discharge prediction bounds which successfully bound the observed discharge. These results improve our understanding of the predictive capability of simple conceptual hydrological models across the UK and help us to identify where further effort is needed to develop modelling approaches to better represent different catchment and climate typologies.

Proceedings of the tenth annual DOE low-level waste management conference: Session 2: Site performance assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1988-12-01

This document contains twelve papers on various aspects of low-level radioactive waste management. Topics of this volume include: performance assessment methodology; remedial action alternatives; site selection and site characterization procedures; intruder scenarios; sensitivity analysis procedures; mathematical models for mixed waste environmental transport; and risk assessment methodology. Individual papers were processed separately for the database. (TEM)

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

Measured and estimated performance of a fleet of shaded photovoltaic systems with string and module-level inverters

DOE PAGES

MacAlpine, Sara; Deline, Chris; Dobos, Aron

2017-03-16

Shade obstructions can significantly impact the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. Although there are many models for partially shaded PV arrays, there is a lack of information available regarding their accuracy and uncertainty when compared with actual field performance. This work assesses the recorded performance of 46 residential PV systems, equipped with either string-level or module-level inverters, under a variety of shading conditions. We compare their energy production data to annual PV performance predictions, with a focus on the practical models developed here for National Renewable Energy Laboratory's system advisor model software. This includes assessment of shade extent on eachmore » PV system by using traditional onsite surveys and newer 3D obstruction modelling. The electrical impact of shade is modelled by either a nonlinear performance model or assumption of linear impact with shade extent, depending on the inverter type. When applied to the fleet of residential PV systems, performance is predicted with median annual bias errors of 2.5% or less, for systems with up to 20% estimated shading loss. The partial shade models are not found to add appreciable uncertainty to annual predictions of energy production for this fleet of systems but do introduce a monthly root-mean-square error of approximately 4%-9% due to seasonal effects. Here the use of a detailed 3D model results in similar or improved accuracy over site survey methods, indicating that, with proper description of shade obstructions, modelling of partially shaded PV arrays can be done completely remotely, potentially saving time and cost.« less

Methods for assessing fracture risk prediction models: experience with FRAX in a large integrated health care delivery system.

PubMed

Pressman, Alice R; Lo, Joan C; Chandra, Malini; Ettinger, Bruce

2011-01-01

Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve is often used to evaluate risk models. However, reclassification tests provide an alternative assessment of model performance. We performed both evaluations on results from FRAX (World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, UK), a fracture risk tool, using Kaiser Permanente Northern California women older than 50yr with bone mineral density (BMD) measured during 1997-2003. We compared FRAX performance with and without BMD in the model. Among 94,489 women with mean follow-up of 6.6yr, 1579 (1.7%) sustained a hip fracture. Overall, AUROCs were 0.83 and 0.84 for FRAX without and with BMD, suggesting that BMD did not contribute to model performance. AUROC decreased with increasing age, and BMD contributed significantly to higher AUROC among those aged 70yr and older. Using an 81% sensitivity threshold (optimum level from receiver operating characteristic curve, corresponding to 1.2% cutoff), 35% of those categorized above were reassigned below when BMD was added. In contrast, only 10% of those categorized below were reassigned to the higher risk category when BMD was added. The net reclassification improvement was 5.5% (p<0.01). Two versions of this risk tool have similar AUROCs, but alternative assessments indicate that addition of BMD improves performance. Multiple methods should be used to evaluate risk tool performance with less reliance on AUROC alone. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation and comparison of benchmark QSAR models to predict a relevant REACH endpoint: The bioconcentration factor (BCF).

PubMed

Gissi, Andrea; Lombardo, Anna; Roncaglioni, Alessandra; Gadaleta, Domenico; Mangiatordi, Giuseppe Felice; Nicolotti, Orazio; Benfenati, Emilio

2015-02-01

The bioconcentration factor (BCF) is an important bioaccumulation hazard assessment metric in many regulatory contexts. Its assessment is required by the REACH regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals) and by CLP (Classification, Labeling and Packaging). We challenged nine well-known and widely used BCF QSAR models against 851 compounds stored in an ad-hoc created database. The goodness of the regression analysis was assessed by considering the determination coefficient (R(2)) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE); Cooper's statistics and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC) were calculated for all the thresholds relevant for regulatory purposes (i.e. 100L/kg for Chemical Safety Assessment; 500L/kg for Classification and Labeling; 2000 and 5000L/kg for Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic (PBT) and very Persistent, very Bioaccumulative (vPvB) assessment) to assess the classification, with particular attention to the models' ability to control the occurrence of false negatives. As a first step, statistical analysis was performed for the predictions of the entire dataset; R(2)>0.70 was obtained using CORAL, T.E.S.T. and EPISuite Arnot-Gobas models. As classifiers, ACD and logP-based equations were the best in terms of sensitivity, ranging from 0.75 to 0.94. External compound predictions were carried out for the models that had their own training sets. CORAL model returned the best performance (R(2)ext=0.59), followed by the EPISuite Meylan model (R(2)ext=0.58). The latter gave also the highest sensitivity on external compounds with values from 0.55 to 0.85, depending on the thresholds. Statistics were also compiled for compounds falling into the models Applicability Domain (AD), giving better performances. In this respect, VEGA CAESAR was the best model in terms of regression (R(2)=0.94) and classification (average sensitivity>0.80). This model also showed the best regression (R(2)=0.85) and sensitivity (average>0.70) for new compounds in the AD but not present in the training set. However, no single optimal model exists and, thus, it would be wise a case-by-case assessment. Yet, integrating the wealth of information from multiple models remains the winner approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Collective efficacy, group potency, and group performance: meta-analyses of their relationships, and test of a mediation model.

PubMed

Stajkovic, Alexander D; Lee, Dongseop; Nyberg, Anthony J

2009-05-01

The authors examined relationships among collective efficacy, group potency, and group performance. Meta-analytic results (based on 6,128 groups, 31,019 individuals, 118 correlations adjusted for dependence, and 96 studies) reveal that collective efficacy was significantly related to group performance (.35). In the proposed nested 2-level model, collective efficacy assessment (aggregation and group discussion) was tested as the 1st-level moderator. It showed significantly different average correlations with group performance (.32 vs. .45), but the group discussion assessment was homogeneous, whereas the aggregation assessment was heterogeneous. Consequently, there was no 2nd-level moderation for the group discussion, and heterogeneity in the aggregation group was accounted for by the 2nd-level moderator, task interdependence (high, moderate, and low levels were significant; the higher the level, the stronger the relationship). The 2nd and 3rd meta-analyses indicated that group potency was related to group performance (.29) and to collective efficacy (.65). When tested in a structural equation modeling analysis based on meta-analytic findings, collective efficacy fully mediated the relationship between group potency and group performance. The authors suggest future research and convert their findings to a probability of success index to help facilitate practice. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Application of linear regression analysis in accuracy assessment of rolling force calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poliak, E. I.; Shim, M. K.; Kim, G. S.; Choo, W. Y.

1998-10-01

Efficient operation of the computational models employed in process control systems require periodical assessment of the accuracy of their predictions. Linear regression is proposed as a tool which allows separate systematic and random prediction errors from those related to measurements. A quantitative characteristic of the model predictive ability is introduced in addition to standard statistical tests for model adequacy. Rolling force calculations are considered as an example for the application. However, the outlined approach can be used to assess the performance of any computational model.

Future directions for LDEF ionizing radiation modeling and assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

1993-01-01

A calculational program utilizing data from radiation dosimetry measurements aboard the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite to reduce the uncertainties in current models defining the ionizing radiation environment is in progress. Most of the effort to date has been on using LDEF radiation dose measurements to evaluate models defining the geomagnetically trapped radiation, which has provided results applicable to radiation design assessments being performed for Space Station Freedom. Plans for future data comparisons, model evaluations, and assessments using additional LDEF data sets (LET spectra, induced radioactivity, and particle spectra) are discussed.

Dynamics of aircraft antiskid braking systems. [conducted at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tanner, J. A.; Stubbs, S. M.; Dreher, R. C.; Smith, E. G.

1982-01-01

A computer study was performed to assess the accuracy of three brake pressure-torque mathematical models. The investigation utilized one main gear wheel, brake, and tire assembly of a McDonnell Douglas DC-9 series 10 airplane. The investigation indicates that the performance of aircraft antiskid braking systems is strongly influenced by tire characteristics, dynamic response of the antiskid control valve, and pressure-torque response of the brake. The computer study employed an average torque error criterion to assess the accuracy of the models. The results indicate that a variable nonlinear spring with hysteresis memory function models the pressure-torque response of the brake more accurately than currently used models.

Computation of Turbulent Wake Flows in Variable Pressure Gradient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duquesne, N.; Carlson, J. R.; Rumsey, C. L.; Gatski, T. B.

1999-01-01

Transport aircraft performance is strongly influenced by the effectiveness of high-lift systems. Developing wakes generated by the airfoil elements are subjected to strong pressure gradients and can thicken very rapidly, limiting maximum lift. This paper focuses on the effects of various pressure gradients on developing symmetric wakes and on the ability of a linear eddy viscosity model and a non-linear explicit algebraic stress model to accurately predict their downstream evolution. In order to reduce the uncertainties arising from numerical issues when assessing the performance of turbulence models, three different numerical codes with the same turbulence models are used. Results are compared to available experimental data to assess the accuracy of the computational results.

Cost Modeling for low-cost planetary missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwan, Eric; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Rosenberg, Leigh

2005-01-01

This presentation will provide an overview of the JPL parametric cost models used to estimate flight science spacecrafts and instruments. This material will emphasize the cost model approaches to estimate low-cost flight hardware, sensors, and instrumentation, and to perform cost-risk assessments. This presentation will also discuss JPL approaches to perform cost modeling and the methodologies and analyses used to capture low-cost vs. key cost drivers.

A Multi-Resolution Assessment of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model v4.7 Wet Deposition Estimates for 2002 - 2006

EPA Science Inventory

This paper examines the operational performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations for 2002 - 2006 using both 36-km and 12-km horizontal grid spacing, with a primary focus on the performance of the CMAQ model in predicting wet deposition of sulfate (...

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Waste Form and Indrift Colloids-Associated Radionuclide Concentrations: Abstraction and Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R. Aguilar

This Model Report describes the analysis and abstractions of the colloids process model for the waste form and engineered barrier system components of the total system performance assessment calculations to be performed with the Total System Performance Assessment-License Application model. Included in this report is a description of (1) the types and concentrations of colloids that could be generated in the waste package from degradation of waste forms and the corrosion of the waste package materials, (2) types and concentrations of colloids produced from the steel components of the repository and their potential role in radionuclide transport, and (3) typesmore » and concentrations of colloids present in natural waters in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain. Additionally, attachment/detachment characteristics and mechanisms of colloids anticipated in the repository are addressed and discussed. The abstraction of the process model is intended to capture the most important characteristics of radionuclide-colloid behavior for use in predicting the potential impact of colloid-facilitated radionuclide transport on repository performance.« less

A Multi-Model Assessment for the 2006 and 2010 Simulations under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 2 over North America: Part II. Evaluation of Column Variable Predictions Using Satellite Data

EPA Science Inventory

Within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative phase 2 (AQMEII2) project, this part II paper performs a multi-model assessment of major column abundances of gases, radiation, aerosol, and cloud variables for 2006 and 2010 simulations with three on...

A comprehensive model for diagnosing the causes of individual medical performance problems: skills, knowledge, internal, past and external factors (SKIPE).

PubMed

Norfolk, Tim; Siriwardena, A Niroshan

2013-01-01

This discussion paper describes a new and comprehensive model for diagnosing the causes of individual medical performance problems: SKIPE (skills, knowledge, internal, past and external factors). This builds on a previous paper describing a unifying theory of clinical practice, the RDM-p model, which captures the primary skill sets required for effective medical performance (relationship, diagnostics and management), and the professionalism that needs to underpin them. The SKIPE model is currently being used, in conjunction with the RDM-p model, for the in-depth assessment and management of doctors whose performance is a cause for concern.

Assessment and prediction of air quality using fuzzy logic and autoregressive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbajal-Hernández, José Juan; Sánchez-Fernández, Luis P.; Carrasco-Ochoa, Jesús A.; Martínez-Trinidad, José Fco.

2012-12-01

In recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been used for the treatment of environmental problems. This work, presents two models for assessment and prediction of air quality. First, we develop a new computational model for air quality assessment in order to evaluate toxic compounds that can harm sensitive people in urban areas, affecting their normal activities. In this model we propose to use a Sigma operator to statistically asses air quality parameters using their historical data information and determining their negative impact in air quality based on toxicity limits, frequency average and deviations of toxicological tests. We also introduce a fuzzy inference system to perform parameter classification using a reasoning process and integrating them in an air quality index describing the pollution levels in five stages: excellent, good, regular, bad and danger, respectively. The second model proposed in this work predicts air quality concentrations using an autoregressive model, providing a predicted air quality index based on the fuzzy inference system previously developed. Using data from Mexico City Atmospheric Monitoring System, we perform a comparison among air quality indices developed for environmental agencies and similar models. Our results show that our models are an appropriate tool for assessing site pollution and for providing guidance to improve contingency actions in urban areas.

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) : gap analysis for high fidelity and performance assessment code development.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Joon H.; Siegel, Malcolm Dean; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe, Jr.

2011-03-01

This report describes a gap analysis performed in the process of developing the Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. The goal of the Waste IPSC is to develop an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive waste storage or disposal system. The Waste IPSC will provide this simulation capability (1) for a range of disposal concepts, waste form types, engineered repositorymore » designs, and geologic settings, (2) for a range of time scales and distances, (3) with appropriate consideration of the inherent uncertainties, and (4) in accordance with rigorous verification, validation, and software quality requirements. The gap analyses documented in this report were are performed during an initial gap analysis to identify candidate codes and tools to support the development and integration of the Waste IPSC, and during follow-on activities that delved into more detailed assessments of the various codes that were acquired, studied, and tested. The current Waste IPSC strategy is to acquire and integrate the necessary Waste IPSC capabilities wherever feasible, and develop only those capabilities that cannot be acquired or suitably integrated, verified, or validated. The gap analysis indicates that significant capabilities may already exist in the existing THC codes although there is no single code able to fully account for all physical and chemical processes involved in a waste disposal system. Large gaps exist in modeling chemical processes and their couplings with other processes. The coupling of chemical processes with flow transport and mechanical deformation remains challenging. The data for extreme environments (e.g., for elevated temperature and high ionic strength media) that are needed for repository modeling are severely lacking. In addition, most of existing reactive transport codes were developed for non-radioactive contaminants, and they need to be adapted to account for radionuclide decay and in-growth. The accessibility to the source codes is generally limited. Because the problems of interest for the Waste IPSC are likely to result in relatively large computational models, a compact memory-usage footprint and a fast/robust solution procedure will be needed. A robust massively parallel processing (MPP) capability will also be required to provide reasonable turnaround times on the analyses that will be performed with the code. A performance assessment (PA) calculation for a waste disposal system generally requires a large number (hundreds to thousands) of model simulations to quantify the effect of model parameter uncertainties on the predicted repository performance. A set of codes for a PA calculation must be sufficiently robust and fast in terms of code execution. A PA system as a whole must be able to provide multiple alternative models for a specific set of physical/chemical processes, so that the users can choose various levels of modeling complexity based on their modeling needs. This requires PA codes, preferably, to be highly modularized. Most of the existing codes have difficulties meeting these requirements. Based on the gap analysis results, we have made the following recommendations for the code selection and code development for the NEAMS waste IPSC: (1) build fully coupled high-fidelity THCMBR codes using the existing SIERRA codes (e.g., ARIA and ADAGIO) and platform, (2) use DAKOTA to build an enhanced performance assessment system (EPAS), and build a modular code architecture and key code modules for performance assessments. The key chemical calculation modules will be built by expanding the existing CANTERA capabilities as well as by extracting useful components from other existing codes.« less

Consistency of QSAR models: Correct split of training and test sets, ranking of models and performance parameters.

PubMed

Rácz, A; Bajusz, D; Héberger, K

2015-01-01

Recent implementations of QSAR modelling software provide the user with numerous models and a wealth of information. In this work, we provide some guidance on how one should interpret the results of QSAR modelling, compare and assess the resulting models, and select the best and most consistent ones. Two QSAR datasets are applied as case studies for the comparison of model performance parameters and model selection methods. We demonstrate the capabilities of sum of ranking differences (SRD) in model selection and ranking, and identify the best performance indicators and models. While the exchange of the original training and (external) test sets does not affect the ranking of performance parameters, it provides improved models in certain cases (despite the lower number of molecules in the training set). Performance parameters for external validation are substantially separated from the other merits in SRD analyses, highlighting their value in data fusion.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barani, T.; Bruschi, E.; Pizzocri, D.

The modelling of fission gas behaviour is a crucial aspect of nuclear fuel analysis in view of the related effects on the thermo-mechanical performance of the fuel rod, which can be particularly significant during transients. Experimental observations indicate that substantial fission gas release (FGR) can occur on a small time scale during transients (burst release). To accurately reproduce the rapid kinetics of burst release in fuel performance calculations, a model that accounts for non-diffusional mechanisms such as fuel micro-cracking is needed. In this work, we present and assess a model for transient fission gas behaviour in oxide fuel, which ismore » applied as an extension of diffusion-based models to allow for the burst release effect. The concept and governing equations of the model are presented, and the effect of the newly introduced parameters is evaluated through an analytic sensitivity analysis. Then, the model is assessed for application to integral fuel rod analysis. The approach that we take for model assessment involves implementation in two structurally different fuel performance codes, namely, BISON (multi-dimensional finite element code) and TRANSURANUS (1.5D semi-analytic code). The model is validated against 19 Light Water Reactor fuel rod irradiation experiments from the OECD/NEA IFPE (International Fuel Performance Experiments) database, all of which are simulated with both codes. The results point out an improvement in both the qualitative representation of the FGR kinetics and the quantitative predictions of integral fuel rod FGR, relative to the canonical, purely diffusion-based models, with both codes. The overall quantitative improvement of the FGR predictions in the two codes is comparable. Furthermore, calculated radial profiles of xenon concentration are investigated and compared to experimental data, demonstrating the representation of the underlying mechanisms of burst release by the new model.« less

Implementing team huddles in small rural hospitals: How does the Kotter model of change apply?

PubMed

Baloh, Jure; Zhu, Xi; Ward, Marcia M

2017-12-17

To examine how the process of change prescribed in Kotter's change model applies in implementing team huddles, and to assess the impact of the execution of early change phases on change success in later phases. Kotter's model can help to guide hospital leaders to implement change and potentially to improve success rates. However, the model is under studied, particularly in health care. We followed eight hospitals implementing team huddles for 2 years, interviewing the change teams quarterly to inquire about implementation progress. We assessed how the hospitals performed in the three overarching phases of the Kotter model, and examined whether performance in the initial phase influenced subsequent performance. In half of the hospitals, change processes were congruent with Kotter's model, where performance in the initial phase influenced their success in subsequent phases. In other hospitals, change processes were incongruent with the model, and their success depended on implementation scope and the strategies employed. We found mixed support for the Kotter model. It better fits implementation that aims to spread to multiple hospital units. When the scope is limited, changes can be successful even when steps are skipped. Kotter's model can be a useful guide for nurse managers implementing changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A simple parametric model observer for quality assurance in computer tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anton, M.; Khanin, A.; Kretz, T.; Reginatto, M.; Elster, C.

2018-04-01

Model observers are mathematical classifiers that are used for the quality assessment of imaging systems such as computer tomography. The quality of the imaging system is quantified by means of the performance of a selected model observer. For binary classification tasks, the performance of the model observer is defined by the area under its ROC curve (AUC). Typically, the AUC is estimated by applying the model observer to a large set of training and test data. However, the recording of these large data sets is not always practical for routine quality assurance. In this paper we propose as an alternative a parametric model observer that is based on a simple phantom, and we provide a Bayesian estimation of its AUC. It is shown that a limited number of repeatedly recorded images (10–15) is already sufficient to obtain results suitable for the quality assessment of an imaging system. A MATLAB® function is provided for the calculation of the results. The performance of the proposed model observer is compared to that of the established channelized Hotelling observer and the nonprewhitening matched filter for simulated images as well as for images obtained from a low-contrast phantom on an x-ray tomography scanner. The results suggest that the proposed parametric model observer, along with its Bayesian treatment, can provide an efficient, practical alternative for the quality assessment of CT imaging systems.

Customer Satisfaction Assessment at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Dale N.; Sours, Mardell L.

2000-03-20

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing and implementing a customer satisfaction assessment program (CSAP) to assess the quality of research and development provided by the laboratory. We present the customer survey component of the PNNL CSAP. The customer survey questionnaire is composed of 2 major sections, Strategic Value and Project Performance. The Strategic Value section of the questionnaire consists of 5 questions that can be answered with a 5 point Likert scale response. These questions are designed to determine if a project is directly contributing to critical future national needs. The Project Performance section of the questionnaire consistsmore » of 9 questions that can be answered with a 5 point Likert scale response. These questions determine PNNL performance in meeting customer expectations. Many approaches could be used to analyze customer survey data. We present a statistical model that can accurately capture the random behavior of customer survey data. The properties of this statistical model can be used to establish a "gold standard'' or performance expectation for the laboratory, and then assess progress. The gold standard is defined from input from laboratory management --- answers to 4 simple questions, in terms of the information obtained from the CSAP customer survey, define the standard: *What should the average Strategic Value be for the laboratory project portfolio? *What Strategic Value interval should include most of the projects in the laboratory portfolio? *What should average Project Performance be for projects with a Strategic Value of about 2? *What should average Project Performance be for projects with a Strategic Value of about 4? We discuss how to analyze CSAP customer survey data with this model. Our discussion will include "lessons learned" and issues that can invalidate this type of assessment.« less

An entrustable professional activity (EPA) for handoffs as a model for EPA assessment development.

PubMed

Aylward, Michael; Nixon, James; Gladding, Sophia

2014-10-01

Medical education is moving toward assessment of educational outcomes rather than educational processes. The American Board of Internal Medicine and American Board of Pediatrics milestones and the concept of entrustable professional activities (EPA)--skills essential to the practice of medicine that educators progressively entrust learners to perform--provide new approaches to assessing outcomes. Although some defined EPAs exist for internal medicine and pediatrics, the continued development and implementation of EPAs remains challenging. As residency programs are expected to begin reporting milestone-based performance, however, they will need examples of how to overcome these challenges. The authors describe a model for the development and implementation of an EPA using the resident handoff as an example. The model includes nine steps: selecting the EPA, determining where skills are practiced and assessed, addressing barriers to assessment, determining components of the EPA, determining needed assessment tools, developing new assessments if needed, determining criteria for advancement through entrustment levels, mapping milestones to the EPA, and faculty development. Following implementation, 78% of interns at the University of Minnesota Medical School were observed giving handoffs and provided feedback. The authors suggest that this model of EPA development--which includes engaging stakeholders, an iterative process to describing the behavioral characteristics of each domain at each level of entrustment, and the development of specific assessment tools that support both formative feedback and summative decisions about entrustment--can serve as a model for EPA development for other clinical skills and specialty areas.

Probabilistic modeling of percutaneous absorption for risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ho, Clifford Kuofei

Chemical transport through human skin can play a significant role in human exposure to toxic chemicals in the workplace, as well as to chemical/biological warfare agents in the battlefield. The viability of transdermal drug delivery also relies on chemical transport processes through the skin. Models of percutaneous absorption are needed for risk-based exposure assessments and drug-delivery analyses, but previous mechanistic models have been largely deterministic. A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of percutaneous absorption of chemicals has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes that may be important to risk-based assessments. Penetration routes through the skinmore » that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times. This probabilistic analysis of percutaneous absorption (PAPA) method has been developed to improve risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug-delivery analyses, where parameters and processes can be highly uncertain.« less

Determination of Uncertainties for +III and +IV Actinide Solubilities in the WIPP Geochemistry Model for the 2009 Compliance Recertification Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, A. E.; Xiong, Y.; Nowak, E. J.; Brush, L. H.

2009-12-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) repository in southeast New Mexico for defense-related transuranic (TRU) waste. Every five years, the DOE is required to submit an application to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) demonstrating the WIPP’s continuing compliance with the applicable EPA regulations governing the repository. Part of this recertification effort involves a performance assessment—a probabilistic evaluation of the repository performance with respect to regulatory limits on the amount of releases from the repository to the accessible environment. One of the models used as part of the performance assessment process is a geochemistry model, which predicts solubilities of the radionuclides in the brines that may enter the repository in the different scenarios considered by the performance assessment. The dissolved actinide source term comprises actinide solubilities, which are input parameters for modeling the transport of radionuclides as a result of brine flow through and from the repository. During a performance assessment, the solubilities are modeled as the product of a “base” solubility determined from calculations based on the chemical conditions expected in the repository, and an uncertainty factor that describes the potential deviations of the model from expected behavior. We will focus here on a discussion of the uncertainties. To compute a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the uncertainties, we compare published, experimentally measured solubility data to predictions made using the established WIPP geochemistry model. The differences between the solubilities observed for a given experiment and the calculated solubilities from the model are used to form the overall CDF, which is then sampled as part of the performance assessment. We will discuss the methodology used to update the CDF’s for the +III actinides, obtained from data for Nd, Am, and Cm, and the +IV actinides, obtained from data for Th, and present results for the calculations of the updated CDF’s. We compare the CDF’s to the distributions computed for the previous recertification, and discuss the potential impact of the changes on the geochemistry model. This research is funded by WIPP programs administered by the U.S. Department of Energy. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Construct validity of the ovine model in endoscopic sinus surgery training.

PubMed

Awad, Zaid; Taghi, Ali; Sethukumar, Priya; Tolley, Neil S

2015-03-01

To demonstrate construct validity of the ovine model as a tool for training in endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). Prospective, cross-sectional evaluation study. Over 18 consecutive months, trainees and experts were evaluated in their ability to perform a range of tasks (based on previous face validation and descriptive studies conducted by the same group) relating to ESS on the sheep-head model. Anonymized randomized video recordings of the above were assessed by two independent and blinded assessors. A validated assessment tool utilizing a five-point Likert scale was employed. Construct validity was calculated by comparing scores across training levels and experts using mean and interquartile range of global and task-specific scores. Subgroup analysis of the intermediate group ascertained previous experience. Nonparametric descriptive statistics were used, and analysis was carried out using SPSS version 21 (IBM, Armonk, NY). Reliability of the assessment tool was confirmed. The model discriminated well between different levels of expertise in global and task-specific scores. A positive correlation was noted between year in training and both global and task-specific scores (P < .001). Experience of the intermediate group was variable, and the number of ESS procedures performed under supervision had the highest impact on performance. This study describes an alternative model for ESS training and assessment. It is also the first to demonstrate construct validity of the sheep-head model for ESS training. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

From LCAs to simplified models: a generic methodology applied to wind power electricity.

PubMed

Padey, Pierryves; Girard, Robin; le Boulch, Denis; Blanc, Isabelle

2013-02-05

This study presents a generic methodology to produce simplified models able to provide a comprehensive life cycle impact assessment of energy pathways. The methodology relies on the application of global sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters explaining the impact variability of systems over their life cycle. Simplified models are built upon the identification of such key parameters. The methodology is applied to one energy pathway: onshore wind turbines of medium size considering a large sample of possible configurations representative of European conditions. Among several technological, geographical, and methodological parameters, we identified the turbine load factor and the wind turbine lifetime as the most influent parameters. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) performances have been plotted as a function of these key parameters identified. Using these curves, GHG performances of a specific wind turbine can be estimated, thus avoiding the undertaking of an extensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). This methodology should be useful for decisions makers, providing them a robust but simple support tool for assessing the environmental performance of energy systems.

An Empirical Study of Kirkpatrick's Evaluation Model in the Hospitality Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Ya-Hui Elegance

2010-01-01

This study examined Kirkpatrick's training evaluation model (Kirkpatrick & Kirkpatrick, 2006) by assessing a sales training program conducted at an organization in the hospitality industry. The study assessed the employees' training outcomes of knowledge and skills, job performance, and the impact of the training upon the organization. By…

A new framework for modeling decentralized low impact developments using Soil and Water Assessment Tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing the performance of Low Impact Development (LID) practices at a catchment scale is important in managing urban watersheds. Few modeling tools exist that are capable of explicitly representing the hydrological mechanisms of LIDs while considering the diverse land uses of urban watersheds. ...

Research and development on performance models of thermal imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ji-hui; Jin, Wei-qi; Wang, Xia; Cheng, Yi-nan

2009-07-01

Traditional ACQUIRE models perform the discrimination tasks of detection (target orientation, recognition and identification) for military target based upon minimum resolvable temperature difference (MRTD) and Johnson criteria for thermal imaging systems (TIS). Johnson criteria is generally pessimistic for performance predict of sampled imager with the development of focal plane array (FPA) detectors and digital image process technology. Triangle orientation discrimination threshold (TOD) model, minimum temperature difference perceived (MTDP)/ thermal range model (TRM3) Model and target task performance (TTP) metric have been developed to predict the performance of sampled imager, especially TTP metric can provides better accuracy than the Johnson criteria. In this paper, the performance models above are described; channel width metrics have been presented to describe the synthesis performance including modulate translate function (MTF) channel width for high signal noise to ration (SNR) optoelectronic imaging systems and MRTD channel width for low SNR TIS; the under resolvable questions for performance assessment of TIS are indicated; last, the development direction of performance models for TIS are discussed.

Risk stratification following acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep

2007-07-01

This article reviews the current risk assessment models available for patients presenting with myocardial infarction (MI). These practical tools enhance the health care provider's ability to rapidly and accurately assess patient risk from the event or revascularization therapy, and are of paramount importance in managing patients presenting with MI. This article highlights the models used for ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI) and provides an additional description of models used to assess risks after primary angioplasty (ie, angioplasty performed for STEMI).

International Space Station Model Correlation Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laible, Michael R.; Fitzpatrick, Kristin; Hodge, Jennifer; Grygier, Michael

2018-01-01

This paper summarizes the on-orbit structural dynamic data and the related modal analysis, model validation and correlation performed for the International Space Station (ISS) configuration ISS Stage ULF7, 2015 Dedicated Thruster Firing (DTF). The objective of this analysis is to validate and correlate the analytical models used to calculate the ISS internal dynamic loads and compare the 2015 DTF with previous tests. During the ISS configurations under consideration, on-orbit dynamic measurements were collected using the three main ISS instrumentation systems; Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS) and the Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS). The measurements were recorded during several nominal on-orbit DTF tests on August 18, 2015. Experimental modal analyses were performed on the measured data to extract modal parameters including frequency, damping, and mode shape information. Correlation and comparisons between test and analytical frequencies and mode shapes were performed to assess the accuracy of the analytical models for the configurations under consideration. These mode shapes were also compared to earlier tests. Based on the frequency comparisons, the accuracy of the mathematical models is assessed and model refinement recommendations are given. In particular, results of the first fundamental mode will be discussed, nonlinear results will be shown, and accelerometer placement will be assessed.

Protocol and Demonstrations of Probabilistic Reliability Assessment for Structural Health Monitoring Systems (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

assessment to quality of localization/characterization estimates. This protocol includes four critical components: (1) a procedure to identify the...critical factors impacting SHM system performance; (2) a multistage or hierarchical approach to SHM system validation; (3) a model -assisted evaluation...Lindgren, E. A ., Buynak, C. F., Steffes, G., Derriso, M., “ Model -assisted Probabilistic Reliability Assessment for Structural Health Monitoring

Modeling and Explaining Content: Definition, Research Support, and Measurement of the "ETS"® National Observational Teaching Examination (NOTE) Assessment Series. Research Memorandum No. RM-16-07

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stickler, Leslie; Sykes, Gary

2016-01-01

This report reviews the scholarly and research evidence supporting the construct labeled modeling and explaining content (MEC), which is measured via a performance assessment in the "ETS"® National Observational Teaching Examination (NOTE) assessment series. This construct involves practices at the heart of teaching that deal with how…

Predicting in-patient falls in a geriatric clinic: a clinical study combining assessment data and simple sensory gait measurements.

PubMed

Marschollek, M; Nemitz, G; Gietzelt, M; Wolf, K H; Meyer Zu Schwabedissen, H; Haux, R

2009-08-01

Falls are among the predominant causes for morbidity and mortality in elderly persons and occur most often in geriatric clinics. Despite several studies that have identified parameters associated with elderly patients' fall risk, prediction models -- e.g., based on geriatric assessment data -- are currently not used on a regular basis. Furthermore, technical aids to objectively assess mobility-associated parameters are currently not used. To assess group differences in clinical as well as common geriatric assessment data and sensory gait measurements between fallers and non-fallers in a geriatric sample, and to derive and compare two prediction models based on assessment data alone (model #1) and added sensory measurement data (model #2). For a sample of n=110 geriatric in-patients (81 women, 29 men) the following fall risk-associated assessments were performed: Timed 'Up & Go' (TUG) test, STRATIFY score and Barthel index. During the TUG test the subjects wore a triaxial accelerometer, and sensory gait parameters were extracted from the data recorded. Group differences between fallers (n=26) and non-fallers (n=84) were compared using Student's t-test. Two classification tree prediction models were computed and compared. Significant differences between the two groups were found for the following parameters: time to complete the TUG test, transfer item (Barthel), recent falls (STRATIFY), pelvic sway while walking and step length. Prediction model #1 (using common assessment data only) showed a sensitivity of 38.5% and a specificity of 97.6%, prediction model #2 (assessment data plus sensory gait parameters) performed with 57.7% and 100%, respectively. Significant differences between fallers and non-fallers among geriatric in-patients can be detected for several assessment subscores as well as parameters recorded by simple accelerometric measurements during a common mobility test. Existing geriatric assessment data may be used for falls prediction on a regular basis. Adding sensory data improves the specificity of our test markedly.

[Comparison between administrative and clinical databases in the evaluation of cardiac surgery performance].

PubMed

Rosato, Stefano; D'Errigo, Paola; Badoni, Gabriella; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo A; Seccareccia, Fulvia

2008-08-01

The availability of two contemporary sources of information about coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) interventions, allowed 1) to verify the feasibility of performing outcome evaluation studies using administrative data sources, and 2) to compare hospital performance obtainable using the CABG Project clinical database with hospital performance derived from the use of current administrative data. Interventions recorded in the CABG Project were linked to the hospital discharge record (HDR) administrative database. Only the linked records were considered for subsequent analyses (46% of the total CABG Project). A new selected population "clinical card-HDR" was then defined. Two independent risk-adjustment models were applied, each of them using information derived from one of the two different sources. Then, HDR information was supplemented with some patient preoperative conditions from the CABG clinical database. The two models were compared in terms of their adaptability to data. Hospital performances identified by the two different models and significantly different from the mean was compared. In only 4 of the 13 hospitals considered for analysis, the results obtained using the HDR model did not completely overlap with those obtained by the CABG model. When comparing statistical parameters of the HDR model and the HDR model + patient preoperative conditions, the latter showed the best adaptability to data. In this "clinical card-HDR" population, hospital performance assessment obtained using information from the clinical database is similar to that derived from the use of current administrative data. However, when risk-adjustment models built on administrative databases are supplemented with a few clinical variables, their statistical parameters improve and hospital performance assessment becomes more accurate.

Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies – A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques

PubMed Central

Geue, Claudia; Wu, Olivia; Xin, Yiqiao; Heggie, Robert; Hutchinson, Sharon; Martin, Natasha K.; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Goldberg, David

2015-01-01

Introduction Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers. PMID:26689908

77 FR 21595 - Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses Involving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-10

... must be one which, if proven, would entitle the requestor/petitioner to relief. A requestor/ petitioner..., and fire modeling calculations, have been performed to demonstrate that the performance-based... may include engineering evaluations, probabilistic safety assessments, and fire modeling calculations...

Automatic Human Movement Assessment With Switching Linear Dynamic System: Motion Segmentation and Motor Performance.

PubMed

de Souza Baptista, Roberto; Bo, Antonio P L; Hayashibe, Mitsuhiro

2017-06-01

Performance assessment of human movement is critical in diagnosis and motor-control rehabilitation. Recent developments in portable sensor technology enable clinicians to measure spatiotemporal aspects to aid in the neurological assessment. However, the extraction of quantitative information from such measurements is usually done manually through visual inspection. This paper presents a novel framework for automatic human movement assessment that executes segmentation and motor performance parameter extraction in time-series of measurements from a sequence of human movements. We use the elements of a Switching Linear Dynamic System model as building blocks to translate formal definitions and procedures from human movement analysis. Our approach provides a method for users with no expertise in signal processing to create models for movements using labeled dataset and later use it for automatic assessment. We validated our framework on preliminary tests involving six healthy adult subjects that executed common movements in functional tests and rehabilitation exercise sessions, such as sit-to-stand and lateral elevation of the arms and five elderly subjects, two of which with limited mobility, that executed the sit-to-stand movement. The proposed method worked on random motion sequences for the dual purpose of movement segmentation (accuracy of 72%-100%) and motor performance assessment (mean error of 0%-12%).

Landslide-Generated Tsunami Model for Quick Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, M.; Rudaz, B.; Locat, J.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Podladchikov, Y.

2015-12-01

Alpine regions are likely to be areas at risk regarding to landslide-induced tsunamis, because of the proximity between lakes and potential instabilities and due to the concentration of the population in valleys and on the lakes shores. In particular, dam lakes are often surrounded by steep slopes and frequently affect the stability of the banks. In order to assess comprehensively this phenomenon together with the induced risks, we have developed a 2.5D numerical model which aims to simulate the propagation of the landslide, the generation and the propagation of the wave and eventually the spread on the shores or the associated downstream flow. To perform this task, the process is done in three steps. Firstly, the geometry of the sliding mass is constructed using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) concept. Secondly, the propagation of this volume is performed using a model based on viscous flow equations. Finally, the wave generation and its propagation are simulated using the shallow water equations stabilized by the Lax-Friedrichs scheme. The transition between wet and dry bed is performed by the combination of the two latter sets of equations. The proper behavior of our model is demonstrated by; (1) numerical tests from Toro (2001), and (2) by comparison with a real event where the horizontal run-up distance is known (Nicolet landslide, Quebec, Canada). The model is of particular interest due to its ability to perform quickly the 2.5D geometric model of the landslide, the tsunami simulation and, consequently, the hazard assessment.

Regional photochemical air quality modeling in the Mexico-US border area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendoza, A.; Russell, A.G.; Mejia, G.M.

1998-12-31

The Mexico-United States border area has become an increasingly important region due to its commercial, industrial and urban growth. As a result, environmental concerns have risen. Treaties like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have further motivated the development of environmental impact assessment in the area. Of particular concern are air quality, and how the activities on both sides of the border contribute to its degradation. This paper presents results of applying a three-dimensional photochemical airshed model to study air pollution dynamics along the Mexico-United States border. In addition, studies were conducted to assess how size resolution impacts themore » model performance. The model performed within acceptable statistic limits using 12.5 x 12.5 km{sup 2} grid cells, and the benefits using finer grids were limited. Results were further used to assess the influence of grid-cell size on the modeling of control strategies, where coarser grids lead to significant loss of information.« less

Uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, Bruce E.; Goto, Kazuhisa; Sugawara, Daisuke; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; La Selle, SeanPaul M.

2016-01-01

Erosion and deposition from tsunamis record information about tsunami hydrodynamics and size that can be interpreted to improve tsunami hazard assessment. We explore sources and methods for quantifying uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty varies with tsunami, study site, available input data, sediment grain size, and model. Although uncertainty has the potential to be large, published case studies indicate that both forward and inverse tsunami sediment transport models perform well enough to be useful for deciphering tsunami characteristics, including size, from deposits. New techniques for quantifying uncertainty, such as Ensemble Kalman Filtering inversion, and more rigorous reporting of uncertainties will advance the science of tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty may be decreased with additional laboratory studies that increase our understanding of the semi-empirical parameters and physics of tsunami sediment transport, standardized benchmark tests to assess model performance, and development of hybrid modeling approaches to exploit the strengths of forward and inverse models.

A Descriptive-Comparative Study of Teacher Performance Evaluation on Student Achievement in a Public School District

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christensen, William Howard

2013-01-01

In 2010, the federal government increased accountability expectations by placing more emphasis on monitoring teacher performance. Using a model that focuses on the New York State teacher evaluation system, that is comprised of a rubric for observation, local student assessment scores, and student state assessment scores, this…

Using Contextual Data for Education Quality Assessment: Developing and Testing Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yastrebov, Gordey; Pinskaya, Marina; Kosaretsky, Sergey

2015-01-01

The article describes an approach to assessment of the performance of educational institutions with regard to their social context. To develop this approach, the authors were guided by (1) the results of numerous studies corroborating correlations between student performance and contextual factors (both in Russia and abroad); (2) the experience of…

Economics of human performance and systems total ownership cost.

PubMed

Onkham, Wilawan; Karwowski, Waldemar; Ahram, Tareq Z

2012-01-01

Financial costs of investing in people is associated with training, acquisition, recruiting, and resolving human errors have a significant impact on increased total ownership costs. These costs can also affect the exaggerate budgets and delayed schedules. The study of human performance economical assessment in the system acquisition process enhances the visibility of hidden cost drivers which support program management informed decisions. This paper presents the literature review of human total ownership cost (HTOC) and cost impacts on overall system performance. Economic value assessment models such as cost benefit analysis, risk-cost tradeoff analysis, expected value of utility function analysis (EV), growth readiness matrix, multi-attribute utility technique, and multi-regressions model were introduced to reflect the HTOC and human performance-technology tradeoffs in terms of the dollar value. The human total ownership regression model introduces to address the influencing human performance cost component measurement. Results from this study will increase understanding of relevant cost drivers in the system acquisition process over the long term.

Part A: Assessing the performance of the COMFA outdoor thermal comfort model on subjects performing physical activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenny, Natasha A.; Warland, Jon S.; Brown, Robert D.; Gillespie, Terry G.

2009-09-01

This study assessed the performance of the COMFA outdoor thermal comfort model on subjects performing moderate to vigorous physical activity. Field tests were conducted on 27 subjects performing 30 min of steady-state activity (walking, running, and cycling) in an outdoor environment. The predicted COMFA budgets were compared to the actual thermal sensation (ATS) votes provided by participants during each 5-min interval. The results revealed a normal distribution in the subjects’ ATS votes, with 82% of votes received in categories 0 (neutral) to +2 (warm). The ATS votes were significantly dependent upon sex, air temperature, short and long-wave radiation, wind speed, and metabolic activity rate. There was a significant positive correlation between the ATS and predicted budgets (Spearman’s rho = 0.574, P < 0.01). However, the predicted budgets did not display a normal distribution, and the model produced erroneous estimates of the heat and moisture exchange between the human body and the ambient environment in 6% of the cases.

Improved Mental Acuity Forecasting with an Individualized Quantitative Sleep Model.

PubMed

Winslow, Brent D; Nguyen, Nam; Venta, Kimberly E

2017-01-01

Sleep impairment significantly alters human brain structure and cognitive function, but available evidence suggests that adults in developed nations are sleeping less. A growing body of research has sought to use sleep to forecast cognitive performance by modeling the relationship between the two, but has generally focused on vigilance rather than other cognitive constructs affected by sleep, such as reaction time, executive function, and working memory. Previous modeling efforts have also utilized subjective, self-reported sleep durations and were restricted to laboratory environments. In the current effort, we addressed these limitations by employing wearable systems and mobile applications to gather objective sleep information, assess multi-construct cognitive performance, and model/predict changes to mental acuity. Thirty participants were recruited for participation in the study, which lasted 1 week. Using the Fitbit Charge HR and a mobile version of the automated neuropsychological assessment metric called CogGauge, we gathered a series of features and utilized the unified model of performance to predict mental acuity based on sleep records. Our results suggest that individuals poorly rate their sleep duration, supporting the need for objective sleep metrics to model circadian changes to mental acuity. Participant compliance in using the wearable throughout the week and responding to the CogGauge assessments was 80%. Specific biases were identified in temporal metrics across mobile devices and operating systems and were excluded from the mental acuity metric development. Individualized prediction of mental acuity consistently outperformed group modeling. This effort indicates the feasibility of creating an individualized, mobile assessment and prediction of mental acuity, compatible with the majority of current mobile devices.

Regime-Based Evaluation of Cloudiness in CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, Daeho; Oraiopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dong Min

2016-01-01

The concept of Cloud Regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating for each gridcell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product (long-term average total cloud amount [TCA]), cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our findings support previous studies showing that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite their shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP as if they were another model output. Lastly, cloud simulation performance is contrasted with each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter.

Assessment of recovery in older patients hospitalized with different diagnoses and functional levels, evaluated with and without geriatric assessment.

PubMed

Abrahamsen, Jenny Foss; Haugland, Cathrine; Ranhoff, Anette Hylen

2016-01-01

The objective of the present study was to investigate 1) the role of different admission diagnoses and 2) the degree of functional loss, on the rate of recovery of older patients after acute hospitalization. Furthermore, to compare the predictive value of simple assessments that can be carried out in a hospital lacking geriatric service, with assessments including geriatric screening tests. Prospective, observational cohort study, including 961community dwelling patients aged ≥ 70 years, transferred from medical, cardiac, pulmonary and orthopedic acute hospital departments to intermediate care in nursing home. Functional assessment with Barthel index (BI) was performed at admission to the nursing home and further geriatric assessment tests was performed during the first week. Logistic regression models with and without geriatric assessment were compared concerning the patients having 1) slow recovery (nursing home stay up to 2 months before return home) or, 2) poor recovery (dead or still in nursing home at 2 months). Slow recovery was independently associated with a diagnosis of non-vertebral fracture, BI subgroups 50-79 and <50, and, in the model including geriatric assessment, also with cognitive impairment. Poor recovery was more complex, and independently associated both with BI < 50, receiving home care before admission, higher age, admission with a non-vertebral fracture, and in the geriatric assessment model, cognitive impairment. Geriatric assessment is optimal for determining the recovery potential of older patients after acute hospitalization. As some hospitals lack geriatric services and ability to perform geriatric screening tests, a simpler assessment based on admission diagnoses and ADL function (BI), gives good information regarding the possible rehabilitation time and possibility to return home.

Towards Adaptive Educational Assessments: Predicting Student Performance using Temporal Stability and Data Analytics in Learning Management Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thakur, Gautam; Olama, Mohammed M; McNair, Wade

Data-driven assessments and adaptive feedback are becoming a cornerstone research in educational data analytics and involve developing methods for exploring the unique types of data that come from the educational context. For example, predicting college student performance is crucial for both the students and educational institutions. It can support timely intervention to prevent students from failing a course, increasing efficacy of advising functions, and improving course completion rate. In this paper, we present our efforts in using data analytics that enable educationists to design novel data-driven assessment and feedback mechanisms. In order to achieve this objective, we investigate temporal stabilitymore » of students grades and perform predictive analytics on academic data collected from 2009 through 2013 in one of the most commonly used learning management systems, called Moodle. First, we have identified the data features useful for assessments and predicting student outcomes such as students scores in homework assignments, quizzes, exams, in addition to their activities in discussion forums and their total Grade Point Average(GPA) at the same term they enrolled in the course. Second, time series models in both frequency and time domains are applied to characterize the progression as well as overall projections of the grades. In particular, the model analyzed the stability as well as fluctuation of grades among students during the collegiate years (from freshman to senior) and disciplines. Third, Logistic Regression and Neural Network predictive models are used to identify students as early as possible who are in danger of failing the course they are currently enrolled in. These models compute the likelihood of any given student failing (or passing) the current course. The time series analysis indicates that assessments and continuous feedback are critical for freshman and sophomores (even with easy courses) than for seniors, and those assessments may be provided using the predictive models. Numerical results are presented to evaluate and compare the performance of the developed models and their predictive accuracy. Our results show that there are strong ties associated with the first few weeks for coursework and they have an impact on the design and distribution of individual modules.« less

Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning

PubMed Central

Maurer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2017-01-01

We compare the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)–or more precisely, models used in multi-attribute value theory (MAVT)–to integrated assessment (IA) models for supporting long-term water supply planning in a small town case study in Switzerland. They are used to evaluate thirteen system scale water supply alternatives in four future scenarios regarding forty-four objectives, covering technical, social, environmental, and economic aspects. The alternatives encompass both conventional and unconventional solutions and differ regarding technical, spatial and organizational characteristics. This paper focuses on the impact assessment and final evaluation step of the structured MCDA decision support process. We analyze the performance of the alternatives for ten stakeholders. We demonstrate the implications of model assumptions by comparing two IA and three MAVT evaluation model layouts of different complexity. For this comparison, we focus on the validity (ranking stability), desirability (value), and distinguishability (value range) of the alternatives given the five model layouts. These layouts exclude or include stakeholder preferences and uncertainties. Even though all five led us to identify the same best alternatives, they did not produce identical rankings. We found that the MAVT-type models provide higher distinguishability and a more robust basis for discussion than the IA-type models. The needed complexity of the model, however, should be determined based on the intended use of the model within the decision support process. The best-performing alternatives had consistently strong performance for all stakeholders and future scenarios, whereas the current water supply system was outperformed in all evaluation layouts. The best-performing alternatives comprise proactive pipe rehabilitation, adapted firefighting provisions, and decentralized water storage and/or treatment. We present recommendations for possible ways of improving water supply planning in the case study and beyond. PMID:28481881

An integrated environmental and health performance quantification model for pre-occupancy phase of buildings in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xiaodong, E-mail: eastdawn@tsinghua.edu.cn; Su, Shu, E-mail: sushuqh@163.com; Zhang, Zhihui, E-mail: zhzhg@tsinghua.edu.cn

To comprehensively pre-evaluate the damages to both the environment and human health due to construction activities in China, this paper presents an integrated building environmental and health performance (EHP) assessment model based on the Building Environmental Performance Analysis System (BEPAS) and the Building Health Impact Analysis System (BHIAS) models and offers a new inventory data estimation method. The new model follows the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework and the inventory analysis step involves bill of quantity (BOQ) data collection, consumption data formation, and environmental profile transformation. The consumption data are derived from engineering drawings and quotas to conduct the assessmentmore » before construction for pre-evaluation. The new model classifies building impacts into three safeguard areas: ecosystems, natural resources and human health. Thus, this model considers environmental impacts as well as damage to human wellbeing. The monetization approach, distance-to-target method and panel method are considered as optional weighting approaches. Finally, nine residential buildings of different structural types are taken as case studies to test the operability of the integrated model through application. The results indicate that the new model can effectively pre-evaluate building EHP and the structure type significantly affects the performance of residential buildings.« less

Measuring the performance of Internet companies using a two-stage data envelopment analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Xiongfei; Yang, Feng

2011-05-01

In exploring the business operation of Internet companies, few researchers have used data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate their performance. Since the Internet companies have a two-stage production process: marketability and profitability, this study employs a relational two-stage DEA model to assess the efficiency of the 40 dot com firms. The results show that our model performs better in measuring efficiency, and is able to discriminate the causes of inefficiency, thus helping business management to be more effective through providing more guidance to business performance improvement.

Scenarios for the Hanford immobilized Low-Activity waste (ILAW) performance assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MANN, F.M.

The purpose of the next version of the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Tank Waste (ILAW) Performance Assessment (ILAW PA) is to provide an updated estimate of the long-term human health and environmental impact of the disposal of ILAW and to compare these estimates against performance objectives displayed in Tables 1,2, and 3 (Mann 1999a). Such a radiological performance assessment is required by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Orders on radioactive waste management (DOE 1988a and DOE 1999a). This document defines the scenarios that will be used for the next update of the PA that is scheduled to be issued in 2001.more » Since the previous performance assessment (Mann 1998) was issued, considerable additional data on waste form behavior and site-specific soil geotechnical properties have been collected. In addition, the 2001 ILAW PA will benefit from improved computer models and the experience gained from the previous performance assessment. However, the scenarios (that is, the features, events, and processes analyzed in the Performance assessment) for the next PA are very similar to the ones in the 1998 PA.« less

Comparing Cognitive Models of Domain Mastery and Task Performance in Algebra: Validity Evidence for a State Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warner, Zachary B.

2013-01-01

This study compared an expert-based cognitive model of domain mastery with student-based cognitive models of task performance for Integrated Algebra. Interpretations of student test results are limited by experts' hypotheses of how students interact with the items. In reality, the cognitive processes that students use to solve each item may be…

NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE AIR QUALITY MODELING IN HOUSTON USING URBAN CANOPY PARAMETERS IN MM5 AND CMAQ WITH IMPROVED CHARACTERIZATION OF MESOSCALE LAKE-LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION

EPA Science Inventory

Advanced capability of air quality simulation models towards accurate performance at finer scales will be needed for such models to serve as tools for performing exposure and risk assessments in urban areas. It is recognized that the impact of urban features such as street and t...

Anesthesiologists' learning curves for bedside qualitative ultrasound assessment of gastric content: a cohort study.

PubMed

Arzola, Cristian; Carvalho, Jose C A; Cubillos, Javier; Ye, Xiang Y; Perlas, Anahi

2013-08-01

Focused assessment of the gastric antrum by ultrasound is a feasible tool to evaluate the quality of the stomach content. We aimed to determine the amount of training an anesthesiologist would need to achieve competence in the bedside ultrasound technique for qualitative assessment of gastric content. Six anesthesiologists underwent a teaching intervention followed by a formative assessment; then learning curves were constructed. Participants received didactic teaching (reading material, picture library, and lecture) and an interactive hands-on workshop on live models directed by an expert sonographer. The participants were instructed on how to perform a systematic qualitative assessment to diagnose one of three distinct categories of gastric content (empty, clear fluid, solid) in healthy volunteers. Individual learning curves were constructed using the cumulative sum method, and competence was defined as a 90% success rate in a series of ultrasound examinations. A predictive model was further developed based on the entire cohort performance to determine the number of cases required to achieve a 95% success rate. Each anesthesiologist performed 30 ultrasound examinations (a total of 180 assessments), and three of the six participants achieved competence. The average number of cases required to achieve 90% and 95% success rates was estimated to be 24 and 33, respectively. With appropriate training and supervision, it is estimated that anesthesiologists will achieve a 95% success rate in bedside qualitative ultrasound assessment after performing approximately 33 examinations.

AIM for the BESt: Assessment and Intervention Model for the Bilingual Exceptional Student. A Handbook for Teachers and Planners from the Innovative Approaches Research Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ortiz, Alba A.; And Others

This handbook describes the Assessment and Intervention Model for the Bilingual Exceptional Student (AIM for the BESt), an instructional/intervention approach to the education of language minority students. The model aims to improve academic performance through use of shared literature and Graves writing workshops, reduce inappropriate referrals…

An IPA-Embedded Model for Evaluating Creativity Curricula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Chi-Cheng

2014-01-01

How to diagnose the effectiveness of creativity-related curricula is a crucial concern in the pursuit of educational excellence. This paper introduces an importance-performance analysis (IPA)-embedded model for curriculum evaluation, using the example of an IT project implementation course to assess the creativity performance deduced from student…

Improving the Performance of Temperature Index Snowmelt Model of SWAT by Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data

PubMed Central

Yang, Yan; Onishi, Takeo; Hiramatsu, Ken

2014-01-01

Simulation results of the widely used temperature index snowmelt model are greatly influenced by input air temperature data. Spatially sparse air temperature data remain the main factor inducing uncertainties and errors in that model, which limits its applications. Thus, to solve this problem, we created new air temperature data using linear regression relationships that can be formulated based on MODIS land surface temperature data. The Soil Water Assessment Tool model, which includes an improved temperature index snowmelt module, was chosen to test the newly created data. By evaluating simulation performance for daily snowmelt in three test basins of the Amur River, performance of the newly created data was assessed. The coefficient of determination (R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were used for evaluation. The results indicate that MODIS land surface temperature data can be used as a new source for air temperature data creation. This will improve snow simulation using the temperature index model in an area with sparse air temperature observations. PMID:25165746

Field modeling of heat transfer in atrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedryshkin, Oleg; Gravit, Marina; Bushuev, Nikolay

2017-10-01

The results of calculating fire risk are an important element in the system of modern fire safety assessment. The article reviews the work on the mathematical modeling of fire in the room. A comparison of different calculation models in the programs of fire risk assessment and fire modeling was performed. The results of full-scale fire tests and fire modeling in the FDS program are presented. The analysis of empirical and theoretical data on fire modeling is made, a conclusion is made about the modeling accuracy in the FDS program.

Comparing observed and predicted mortality among ICUs using different prognostic systems: why do performance assessments differ?

PubMed

Kramer, Andrew A; Higgins, Thomas L; Zimmerman, Jack E

2015-02-01

To compare ICU performance using standardized mortality ratios generated by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and a National Quality Forum-endorsed methodology and examine potential reasons for model-based standardized mortality ratio differences. Retrospective analysis of day 1 hospital mortality predictions at the ICU level using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum models on the same patient cohort. Forty-seven ICUs at 36 U.S. hospitals from January 2008 to May 2013. Eighty-nine thousand three hundred fifty-three consecutive unselected ICU admissions. None. We assessed standardized mortality ratios for each ICU using data for patients eligible for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum predictions in order to compare unit-level model performance, differences in ICU rankings, and how case-mix adjustment might explain standardized mortality ratio differences. Hospital mortality was 11.5%. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 0.89 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 1.07 using National Quality Forum, the latter having a widely dispersed and multimodal standardized mortality ratio distribution. Model exclusion criteria eliminated mortality predictions for 10.6% of patients for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 27.9% for National Quality Forum. The two models agreed on the significance and direction of standardized mortality ratio only 45% of the time. Four ICUs had standardized mortality ratios significantly less than 1.0 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa, but significantly greater than 1.0 using National Quality Forum. Two ICUs had standardized mortality ratios exceeding 1.75 using National Quality Forum, but nonsignificant performance using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa. Stratification by patient and institutional characteristics indicated that units caring for more severely ill patients and those with a higher percentage of patients on mechanical ventilation had the most discordant standardized mortality ratios between the two predictive models. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum models yield different ICU performance assessments due to differences in case-mix adjustment. Given the growing role of outcomes in driving prospective payment patient referral and public reporting, performance should be assessed by models with fewer exclusions, superior accuracy, and better case-mix adjustment.

Predictive models to assess risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity: machine-learning algorithms and validation using national health data from Kuwait—a cohort study

PubMed Central

Farran, Bassam; Channanath, Arshad Mohamed; Behbehani, Kazem; Thanaraj, Thangavel Alphonse

2013-01-01

Objective We build classification models and risk assessment tools for diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity using machine-learning algorithms on data from Kuwait. We model the increased proneness in diabetic patients to develop hypertension and vice versa. We ascertain the importance of ethnicity (and natives vs expatriate migrants) and of using regional data in risk assessment. Design Retrospective cohort study. Four machine-learning techniques were used: logistic regression, k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), multifactor dimensionality reduction and support vector machines. The study uses fivefold cross validation to obtain generalisation accuracies and errors. Setting Kuwait Health Network (KHN) that integrates data from primary health centres and hospitals in Kuwait. Participants 270 172 hospital visitors (of which, 89 858 are diabetic, 58 745 hypertensive and 30 522 comorbid) comprising Kuwaiti natives, Asian and Arab expatriates. Outcome measures Incident type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity. Results Classification accuracies of >85% (for diabetes) and >90% (for hypertension) are achieved using only simple non-laboratory-based parameters. Risk assessment tools based on k-NN classification models are able to assign ‘high’ risk to 75% of diabetic patients and to 94% of hypertensive patients. Only 5% of diabetic patients are seen assigned ‘low’ risk. Asian-specific models and assessments perform even better. Pathological conditions of diabetes in the general population or in hypertensive population and those of hypertension are modelled. Two-stage aggregate classification models and risk assessment tools, built combining both the component models on diabetes (or on hypertension), perform better than individual models. Conclusions Data on diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity from the cosmopolitan State of Kuwait are available for the first time. This enabled us to apply four different case–control models to assess risks. These tools aid in the preliminary non-intrusive assessment of the population. Ethnicity is seen significant to the predictive models. Risk assessments need to be developed using regional data as we demonstrate the applicability of the American Diabetes Association online calculator on data from Kuwait. PMID:23676796

Minimum resolvable power contrast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Shuai; Wang, Xia; Zhou, Jingjing

2018-01-01

Signal-to-noise ratio and MTF are important indexs to evaluate the performance of optical systems. However,whether they are used alone or joint assessment cannot intuitively describe the overall performance of the system. Therefore, an index is proposed to reflect the comprehensive system performance-Minimum Resolvable Radiation Performance Contrast (MRP) model. MRP is an evaluation model without human eyes. It starts from the radiance of the target and the background, transforms the target and background into the equivalent strips,and considers attenuation of the atmosphere, the optical imaging system, and the detector. Combining with the signal-to-noise ratio and the MTF, the Minimum Resolvable Radiation Performance Contrast is obtained. Finally the detection probability model of MRP is given.

Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaherpour, Jamal; Gosling, Simon N.; Mount, Nick; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Gerten, Dieter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Hanasaki, Naota; Kim, Hyungjun; Leng, Guoyong; Liu, Junguo; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Oki, Taikan; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Schewe, Jacob; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-06-01

Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models’ ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output.

An introduction to the partial credit model for developing nursing assessments.

PubMed

Fox, C

1999-11-01

The partial credit model, which is a special case of the Rasch measurement model, was presented as a useful way to develop and refine complex nursing assessments. The advantages of the Rasch model over the classical psychometric model were presented including the lack of bias in the measurement process, the ability to highlight those items in need of refinement, the provision of information on congruence between the data and the model, and feedback on the usefulness of the response categories. The partial credit model was introduced as a way to develop complex nursing assessments such as performance-based assessments, because of the model's ability to accommodate a variety of scoring procedures. Finally, an application of the partial credit model was illustrated using the Practical Knowledge Inventory for Nurses, a paper-and-pencil instrument that measures on-the-job decision-making for nurses.

Towards an Integrated Model for Developing Sustainable Assessment Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fastre, Greet M. J.; van der Klink, Marcel R.; Sluijsmans, Dominique; van Merrienboer, Jeroen J. G.

2013-01-01

One of the goals of current education is to ensure that graduates can act as independent lifelong learners. Graduates need to be able to assess their own learning and interpret assessment results. The central question in this article is how to acquire sustainable assessment skills, enabling students to assess their performance and learning…

Risk assessment models to evaluate the necessity of prostate biopsies in North Chinese patients with 4-50 ng/mL PSA.

PubMed

Zhao, Jing; Liu, Shuai; Gao, Dexuan; Ding, Sentai; Niu, Zhihong; Zhang, Hui; Huang, Zhilong; Qiu, Juhui; Li, Qing; Li, Ning; Xie, Fang; Cui, Jilei; Lu, Jiaju

2017-02-07

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is widely used for prostate cancer screening, but low specificity results in high false positive rates of prostate biopsies. To develop new risk assessment models to overcome the diagnostic limitation of PSA and reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies in North Chinese patients with 4-50 ng/mL PSA. A total of 702 patients in seven hospitals with 4-10 and 10-50 ng/mL PSA, respectively, who had undergone transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsies, were assessed. Analysis-modeling stage for several clinical indexes related to prostate cancer and renal function was carried out. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to develop new risk assessment models of prostate cancer for both PSA level ranges 4-10 and 10-50 ng/mL. External validation stage of the new models was performed to assess the necessity of biopsy. The new models for both PSA ranges performed significantly better than PSA for detecting prostate cancers. Both models showed higher areas under the curves (0.937 and 0.873, respectively) compared with PSA alone (0.624 and 0.595), at pre-determined cut-off values of 0.1067 and 0.6183, respectively. Patients above the cut-off values were recommended for immediate biopsy, while the others were actively observed. External validation of the models showed significantly increased detection rates for prostate cancer (4-10 ng/mL group, 39.29% vs 17.79%, p=0.006; 10-50 ng/mL group, 71.83% vs 50.0%, p=0.015). We developed risk assessment models for North Chinese patients with 4-50 ng/mL PSA to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies and increase the detection rate of prostate cancer.

A combined triggering-propagation modeling approach for the assessment of rainfall induced debris flow susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stancanelli, Laura Maria; Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino; Foti, Enrico

2017-07-01

Rainfall-induced shallow slides can evolve into debris flows that move rapidly downstream with devastating consequences. Mapping the susceptibility to debris flow is an important aid for risk mitigation. We propose a novel practical approach to derive debris flow inundation maps useful for susceptibility assessment, that is based on the integrated use of DEM-based spatially-distributed hydrological and slope stability models with debris flow propagation models. More specifically, the TRIGRS infiltration and infinite slope stability model and the FLO-2D model for the simulation of the related debris flow propagation and deposition are combined. An empirical instability-to-debris flow triggering threshold calibrated on the basis of observed events, is applied to link the two models and to accomplish the task of determining the amount of unstable mass that develops as a debris flow. Calibration of the proposed methodology is carried out based on real data of the debris flow event occurred on 1 October 2009, in the Peloritani mountains area (Italy). Model performance, assessed by receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) indexes, evidences fairly good reproduction of the observed event. Comparison with the performance of the traditional debris flow modeling procedure, in which sediment and water hydrographs are inputed as lumped at selected points on top of the streams, is also performed, in order to assess quantitatively the limitations of such commonly applied approach. Results show that the proposed method, besides of being more process-consistent than the traditional hydrograph-based approach, can potentially provide a more accurate simulation of debris-flow phenomena, in terms of spatial patterns of erosion and deposition as well on the quantification of mobilized volumes and depths, avoiding overestimation of debris flow triggering volume and, thus, of maximum inundation flow depths.

Evaluation of calibration efficacy under different levels of uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Heo, Yeonsook; Graziano, Diane J.; Guzowski, Leah; ...

2014-06-10

This study examines how calibration performs under different levels of uncertainty in model input data. It specifically assesses the efficacy of Bayesian calibration to enhance the reliability of EnergyPlus model predictions. A Bayesian approach can be used to update uncertain values of parameters, given measured energy-use data, and to quantify the associated uncertainty.We assess the efficacy of Bayesian calibration under a controlled virtual-reality setup, which enables rigorous validation of the accuracy of calibration results in terms of both calibrated parameter values and model predictions. Case studies demonstrate the performance of Bayesian calibration of base models developed from audit data withmore » differing levels of detail in building design, usage, and operation.« less

A Preliminary Assessment of the SURF Reactive Burn Model Implementation in FLAG

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Carl Edward; McCombe, Ryan Patrick; Carver, Kyle

Properly validated and calibrated reactive burn models (RBM) can be useful engineering tools for assessing high explosive performance and safety. Experiments with high explosives are expensive. Inexpensive RBM calculations are increasingly relied on for predictive analysis for performance and safety. This report discusses the validation of Menikoff and Shaw’s SURF reactive burn model, which has recently been implemented in the FLAG code. The LANL Gapstick experiment is discussed as is its’ utility in reactive burn model validation. Data obtained from pRad for the LT-63 series is also presented along with FLAG simulations using SURF for both PBX 9501 and PBXmore » 9502. Calibration parameters for both explosives are presented.« less

Application of Dynamic naïve Bayesian classifier to comprehensive drought assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, D. H.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, J. H.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Drought monitoring has already been extensively studied due to the widespread impacts and complex causes of drought. The most important component of drought monitoring is to estimate the characteristics and extent of drought by quantitatively measuring the characteristics of drought. Drought assessment considering different aspects of the complicated drought condition and uncertainty of drought index is great significance in accurate drought monitoring. This study used the dynamic Naïve Bayesian Classifier (DNBC) which is an extension of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), to model and classify drought by using various drought indices for integrated drought assessment. To provide a stable model for combined use of multiple drought indices, this study employed the DNBC to perform multi-index drought assessment by aggregating the effect of different type of drought and considering the inherent uncertainty. Drought classification was performed by the DNBC using several drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Normalized Vegetation Supply Water Index (NVSWI)) that reflect meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characteristics. Overall results showed that in comparison unidirectional (SPI, SDI, and NVSWI) or multivariate (Composite Drought Index, CDI) drought assessment, the proposed DNBC was able to synthetically classify of drought considering uncertainty. Model provided method for comprehensive drought assessment with combined use of different drought indices.

Comparison of mathematic models for assessment of glomerular filtration rate with electron-beam CT in pigs.

PubMed

Daghini, Elena; Juillard, Laurent; Haas, John A; Krier, James D; Romero, Juan C; Lerman, Lilach O

2007-02-01

To prospectively compare in pigs three mathematic models for assessment of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) on electron-beam (EB) computed tomographic (CT) images, with concurrent inulin clearance serving as the reference standard. This study was approved by the institutional animal care and use committee. Inulin clearance was measured in nine pigs (18 kidneys) and compared with single-kidney GFR assessed from renal time-attenuation curves (TACs) obtained with EB CT before and after infusion of the vasodilator acetylcholine. CT-derived GFR was calculated with the original and modified Patlak methods and with previously validated extended gamma variate modeling of first-pass cortical TACs. Statistical analysis was performed to assess correlation between CT methods and inulin clearance for estimation of GFR with least-squares regression analysis and Bland-Altman graphical representation. Comparisons within groups were performed with a paired t test. GFR assessed with the original Patlak method indicated poor correlation with inulin clearance, whereas GFR assessed with the modified Patlak method (P < .001, r = 0.75) and with gamma variate modeling (P < .001, r = 0.79) correlated significantly with inulin clearance and indicated an increase in response to acetylcholine. CT-derived estimates of GFR can be significantly improved by modifications in image analysis methods (eg, use of a cortical region of interest). (c) RSNA, 2007.

A conative educational model for an intervention program in obese youth.

PubMed

Vanhelst, Jérémy; Béghin, Laurent; Fardy, Paul Stephen; Bui-Xuan, Gilles; Mikulovic, Jacques

2012-06-07

Obesity in children has increased in recent years throughout the world and is associated with adverse health consequences. Early interventions, including appropriate pedagogy strategies, are important for a successful intervention program. The aim of this study was to assess changes in body mass index, the ability to perform sport activities, behavior in the classroom and academic performance following one year of a health-wellness intervention program in obese youth. The CEMHaVi program included 37 obese children (19 girls and 18 boys). Participants received an intervention program consisting of physical activity and health education. Assessment included body mass index, academic performance, classroom performance and ability to perform sport activities. Paired t tests were used to assess the effects of intervention, and chi square was used to assess inter-action between measures. Findings of the study suggest significant decrease in Z scores of Body Mass Index and an improvement of academic performance, classroom behavior and the ability to perform sport activities (p < 0.05). Chi square testing showed significant positive inter-actions between body mass index, classroom behavior and academic performance. Results following year one of CEMHaVi showed that a program of physical activity and health education had positive effects on obesity, behavior in the classroom and the ability to perform sport activities in obese adolescents. Significant inter-action in changes between variables was observed. Findings are important for designing intervention models to improve health in obese youth.

A Multidirectional Model for Assessing Learning Disabled Students' Intelligence: An Information-Processing Framework.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swanson, H. Lee

1982-01-01

An information processing approach to the assessment of learning disabled students' intellectual performance is presented. The model is based on the assumption that intelligent behavior is comprised of a variety of problem- solving strategies. An account of child problem solving is explained and illustrated with a "thinking aloud" protocol.…

Evaluating Curriculum-Based Measurement from a Behavioral Assessment Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ardoin, Scott P.; Roof, Claire M.; Klubnick, Cynthia; Carfolite, Jessica

2008-01-01

Curriculum-based measurement Reading (CBM-R) is an assessment procedure used to evaluate students' relative performance compared to peers and to evaluate their growth in reading. Within the response to intervention (RtI) model, CBM-R data are plotted in time series fashion as a means modeling individual students' response to varying levels of…

Evaluating Rater Accuracy in Rater-Mediated Assessments Using an Unfolding Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Jue; Engelhard, George, Jr.; Wolfe, Edward W.

2016-01-01

The number of performance assessments continues to increase around the world, and it is important to explore new methods for evaluating the quality of ratings obtained from raters. This study describes an unfolding model for examining rater accuracy. Accuracy is defined as the difference between observed and expert ratings. Dichotomous accuracy…

Finding One's Voice: The Pacesetter Model for More Equitable Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Badger, Elizabeth

1996-01-01

Describes the College Board's Pacesetter Program, high school courses developed using principles of ongoing performance testing and portfolios, standards, and curriculum. The model is illustrated in a description of the Voices of Modern Culture language arts course. Argues that this assessment process has systemic validity and is more relevant to…

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Performing Environmental Assessments: Application to Ecosystem Services in the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins (NC and VA,USA)

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses environmental models to inform rulemaking and policy decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As decision-making has moved towards integrated thinking and assessment (e.g. media, site, region, services), the increasing compl...

A Consensus Model: Shifting assessment practices in dietetics tertiary education.

PubMed

Bacon, Rachel; Kellett, Jane; Dart, Janeane; Knight-Agarwal, Cathy; Mete, Rebecca; Ash, Susan; Palermo, Claire

2018-02-21

The aim of this research was to evaluate a Consensus Model for competency-based assessment. An evaluative case study was used to allow a holistic examination of a constructivist-interpretivist programmatic model of assessment. Using a modified Delphi process, the competence of all 29 students enrolled in their final year of a Master of Nutrition and Dietetics course was assessed by a panel (with expertise in competency-based assessment; industry and academic representation) from a course e-portfolio (that included the judgements of student performance made by worksite educators) and a panel interview. Data were triangulated with assessments from a capstone internship. Qualitative descriptive studies with worksite educators (focus groups n = 4, n = 5, n = 8) and students (personal interviews n = 29) explored stakeholder experiences analysed using thematic analysis. Panel consensus was achieved for all cases by the third-round and corroborated by internship outcomes. For 34% of students this differed to the 'interpretations' of their performance made by their worksite educator/s. Emerging qualitative themes from stakeholder data found the model: (i) supported sustainable assessment practices; (ii) shifted the power relationship between students and worksite educators and (iii) provided a fair method to assess competence. To maximise benefits, more refinement, resources and training are required. This research questions competency-based assessment practices based on discrete placement units and supports a constructivist-interpretivist programmatic approach where evidence across a whole course of study is considered by a panel of assessors. © 2018 Dietitians Association of Australia.

NUMERICAL FLOW AND TRANSPORT SIMULATIONS SUPPORTING THE SALTSTONE FACILITY PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flach, G.

2009-02-28

The Saltstone Disposal Facility Performance Assessment (PA) is being revised to incorporate requirements of Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2005 (NDAA), and updated data and understanding of vault performance since the 1992 PA (Cook and Fowler 1992) and related Special Analyses. A hybrid approach was chosen for modeling contaminant transport from vaults and future disposal cells to exposure points. A higher resolution, largely deterministic, analysis is performed on a best-estimate Base Case scenario using the PORFLOW numerical analysis code. a few additional sensitivity cases are simulated to examine alternative scenarios andmore » parameter settings. Stochastic analysis is performed on a simpler representation of the SDF system using the GoldSim code to estimate uncertainty and sensitivity about the Base Case. This report describes development of PORFLOW models supporting the SDF PA, and presents sample results to illustrate model behaviors and define impacts relative to key facility performance objectives. The SDF PA document, when issued, should be consulted for a comprehensive presentation of results.« less

Action versus Result-Oriented Schemes in a Grassland Agroecosystem: A Dynamic Modelling Approach

PubMed Central

Sabatier, Rodolphe; Doyen, Luc; Tichit, Muriel

2012-01-01

Effects of agri-environment schemes (AES) on biodiversity remain controversial. While most AES are action-oriented, result-oriented and habitat-oriented schemes have recently been proposed as a solution to improve AES efficiency. The objective of this study was to compare action-oriented, habitat-oriented and result-oriented schemes in terms of ecological and productive performance as well as in terms of management flexibility. We developed a dynamic modelling approach based on the viable control framework to carry out a long term assessment of the three schemes in a grassland agroecosystem. The model explicitly links grazed grassland dynamics to bird population dynamics. It is applied to lapwing conservation in wet grasslands in France. We ran the model to assess the three AES scenarios. The model revealed the grazing strategies respecting ecological and productive constraints specific to each scheme. Grazing strategies were assessed by both their ecological and productive performance. The viable control approach made it possible to obtain the whole set of viable grazing strategies and therefore to quantify the management flexibility of the grassland agroecosystem. Our results showed that habitat and result-oriented scenarios led to much higher ecological performance than the action-oriented one. Differences in both ecological and productive performance between the habitat and result-oriented scenarios were limited. Flexibility of the grassland agroecosystem in the result-oriented scenario was much higher than in that of habitat-oriented scenario. Our model confirms the higher flexibility as well as the better ecological and productive performance of result-oriented schemes. A larger use of result-oriented schemes in conservation may also allow farmers to adapt their management to local conditions and to climatic variations. PMID:22496746

Beyond the audiogram: application of models of auditory fitness for duty to assess communication in the real world.

PubMed

Dubno, Judy R

2018-05-01

This manuscript provides a Commentary on a paper published in the current issue of the International Journal of Audiology and the companion paper published in Ear and Hearing by Soli et al. These papers report background, rationale and results of a novel modelling approach to assess "auditory fitness for duty," or an individual's ability to perform hearing-critical tasks related to their job, based on their likelihood of effective speech communication in the listening environment in which the task is performed.

Image Quality Modeling and Characterization of Nyquist Sampled Framing Systems with Operational Considerations for Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garma, Rey Jan D.

The trade between detector and optics performance is often conveyed through the Q metric, which is defined as the ratio of detector sampling frequency and optical cutoff frequency. Historically sensors have operated at Q ≈ 1, which introduces aliasing but increases the system modulation transfer function (MTF) and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Though mathematically suboptimal, such designs have been operationally ideal when considering system parameters such as pointing stability and detector performance. Substantial advances in read noise and quantum efficiency of modern detectors may compensate for the negative aspects associated with balancing detector/optics performance, presenting an opportunity to revisit the potential for implementing Nyquist-sampled (Q ≈ 2) sensors. A digital image chain simulation is developed and validated against a laboratory testbed using objective and subjective assessments. Objective assessments are accomplished by comparison of the modeled MTF and measurements from slant-edge photographs. Subjective assessments are carried out by performing a psychophysical study where subjects are asked to rate simulation and testbed imagery against a DeltaNIIRS scale with the aid of a marker set. Using the validated model, additional test cases are simulated to study the effects of increased detector sampling on image quality with operational considerations. First, a factorial experiment using Q-sampling, pointing stability, integration time, and detector performance is conducted to measure the main effects and interactions of each on the response variable, DeltaNIIRS. To assess the fidelity of current models, variants of the General Image Quality Equation (GIQE) are evaluated against subject-provided ratings and two modified GIQE versions are proposed. Finally, using the validated simulation and modified IQE, trades are conducted to ascertain the feasibility of implementing Q ≈ 2 designs in future systems.

An in-depth review of photovoltaic system performance models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. H.; Reiter, L. R.

1984-01-01

The features, strong points and shortcomings of 10 numerical models commonly applied to assessing photovoltaic performance are discussed. The models range in capabilities from first-order approximations to full circuit level descriptions. Account is taken, at times, of the cell and module characteristics, the orientation and geometry, array-level factors, the power-conditioning equipment, the overall plant performance, O and M effects, and site-specific factors. Areas of improvement and/or necessary extensions are identified for several of the models. Although the simplicity of a model was found not necessarily to affect the accuracy of the data generated, the use of any one model was dependent on the application.

Customer satisfaction assessment at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DN Anderson; ML Sours

2000-03-23

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing and implementing a customer satisfaction assessment program (CSAP) to assess the quality of research and development provided by the laboratory. This report presents the customer survey component of the PNNL CSAP. The customer survey questionnaire is composed of two major sections: Strategic Value and Project Performance. Both sections contain a set of questions that can be answered with a 5-point Likert scale response. The strategic value section consists of five questions that are designed to determine if a project directly contributes to critical future national needs. The project Performance section consists ofmore » nine questions designed to determine PNNL performance in meeting customer expectations. A statistical model for customer survey data is developed and this report discusses how to analyze the data with this model. The properties of the statistical model can be used to establish a gold standard or performance expectation for the laboratory, and then to assess progress. The gold standard is defined using laboratory management input--answers to four questions, in terms of the information obtained from the customer survey: (1) What should the average Strategic Value be for the laboratory project portfolio? (2) What Strategic Value interval should include most of the projects in the laboratory portfolio? (3) What should average Project Performance be for projects with a Strategic Value of about 2? (4) What should average Project Performance be for projects with a Strategic Value of about 4? To be able to provide meaningful answers to these questions, the PNNL customer survey will need to be fully implemented for several years, thus providing a link between management perceptions of laboratory performance and customer survey data.« less

Are short-term focused training courses on a phantom model using porcine gall bladder useful for trainees in acquiring basic laparoscopic skills?

PubMed

Bansal, Virinder Kumar; Panwar, Rajesh; Misra, Mahesh C; Bhattacharjee, Hemanga K; Jindal, Vikas; Loli, Athiko; Goswami, Amit; Krishna, Asuri; Tamang, Tseten

2012-04-01

The best training method in laparoscopic surgery has not been defined. We evaluated the efficacy of laparoscopic skills acquisition in a short-term focused program. Two hundred fifty-six participants undergoing training on a phantom model were divided into 2 groups. Group 1 had no exposure and group 2 had performed a few laparoscopic surgeries. Acquisition of laparoscopic skills was assessed by operation time and the modified Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills (GOALS) scale. A questionnaire was sent to the participants after 3 to 6 months for assessment of impact of training. There was a statistically significant improvement in the assessed parameters and in the mean score of all 5 domains of GOALS. The participants in group 2 performed better than those in group 1 in the first case. The difference between both the groups disappeared after the training. Participants who responded to the questionnaire felt that training helped them in improving their performance in the operation theater.

Associations between different components of fitness and fatness with academic performance in Chilean youths.

PubMed

Olivares, Pedro R; García-Rubio, Javier

2016-01-01

To analyze the associations between different components of fitness and fatness with academic performance, adjusting the analysis by sex, age, socio-economic status, region and school type in a Chilean sample. Data of fitness, fatness and academic performance was obtained from the Chilean System for the Assessment of Educational Quality test for eighth grade in 2011 and includes a sample of 18,746 subjects (49% females). Partial correlations adjusted by confounders were done to explore association between fitness and fatness components, and between the academic scores. Three unadjusted and adjusted linear regression models were done in order to analyze the associations of variables. Fatness has a negative association with academic performance when Body Mass Index (BMI) and Waist to Height Ratio (WHR) are assessed independently. When BMI and WHR are assessed jointly and adjusted by cofounders, WHR is more associated with academic performance than BMI, and only the association of WHR is positive. For fitness components, strength was the variable most associated with the academic performance. Cardiorespiratory capacity was not associated with academic performance if fatness and other fitness components are included in the model. Fitness and fatness are associated with academic performance. WHR and strength are more related with academic performance than BMI and cardiorespiratory capacity.

Associations between different components of fitness and fatness with academic performance in Chilean youths

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Objectives To analyze the associations between different components of fitness and fatness with academic performance, adjusting the analysis by sex, age, socio-economic status, region and school type in a Chilean sample. Methods Data of fitness, fatness and academic performance was obtained from the Chilean System for the Assessment of Educational Quality test for eighth grade in 2011 and includes a sample of 18,746 subjects (49% females). Partial correlations adjusted by confounders were done to explore association between fitness and fatness components, and between the academic scores. Three unadjusted and adjusted linear regression models were done in order to analyze the associations of variables. Results Fatness has a negative association with academic performance when Body Mass Index (BMI) and Waist to Height Ratio (WHR) are assessed independently. When BMI and WHR are assessed jointly and adjusted by cofounders, WHR is more associated with academic performance than BMI, and only the association of WHR is positive. For fitness components, strength was the variable most associated with the academic performance. Cardiorespiratory capacity was not associated with academic performance if fatness and other fitness components are included in the model. Conclusions Fitness and fatness are associated with academic performance. WHR and strength are more related with academic performance than BMI and cardiorespiratory capacity. PMID:27761345

Phase Two Feasibility Study for Software Safety Requirements Analysis Using Model Checking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turgeon, Gregory; Price, Petra

2010-01-01

A feasibility study was performed on a representative aerospace system to determine the following: (1) the benefits and limitations to using SCADE , a commercially available tool for model checking, in comparison to using a proprietary tool that was studied previously [1] and (2) metrics for performing the model checking and for assessing the findings. This study was performed independently of the development task by a group unfamiliar with the system, providing a fresh, external perspective free from development bias.

Constructing an adaptive care model for the management of disease-related symptoms throughout the course of multiple sclerosis--performance improvement CME.

PubMed

Miller, Aaron E; Cohen, Bruce A; Krieger, Stephen C; Markowitz, Clyde E; Mattson, David H; Tselentis, Helen N

2014-01-01

Symptom management remains a challenging clinical aspect of MS. To design a performance improvement continuing medical education (PI CME) activity for better clinical management of multiple sclerosis (MS)-related depression, fatigue, mobility impairment/falls, and spasticity. Ten volunteer MS centers participated in a three-stage PI CME model: A) baseline assessment; B) practice improvement CME intervention; C) reassessment. Expert faculty developed performance measures and activity intervention tools. Designated MS center champions reviewed patient charts and entered data into an online database. Stage C data were collected eight weeks after implementation of the intervention and compared with Stage A baseline data to measure change in performance. Aggregate data from the 10 participating MS centers (405 patient charts) revealed performance improvements in the assessment of all four MS-related symptoms. Statistically significant improvements were found in the documented assessment of mobility impairment/falls (p=0.003) and spasticity (p<0.001). For documentation of care plans, statistically significant improvements were reported for fatigue (p=0.007) and mobility impairment/falls (p=0.040); non-significant changes were noted for depression and spasticity. Our PI CME interventions demonstrated performance improvement in the management of MS-related symptoms. This PI CME model (available at www.achlpicme.org/ms/toolkit) offers a new perspective on enhancing symptom management in patients with MS.

A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

PubMed

Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

2015-09-01

Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

'Geo'chemical research: a key building block for nuclear waste disposal safety cases.

PubMed

Altmann, Scott

2008-12-12

Disposal of high level radioactive waste in deep underground repositories has been chosen as solution by several countries. Because of the special status this type waste has in the public mind, national implementation programs typically mobilize massive R&D efforts, last decades and are subject to extremely detailed and critical social-political scrutiny. The culminating argument of each program is a 'Safety Case' for a specific disposal concept containing, among other elements, the results of performance assessment simulations whose object is to model the release of radionuclides to the biosphere. Public and political confidence in performance assessment results (which generally show that radionuclide release will always be at acceptable levels) is based on their confidence in the quality of the scientific understanding in the processes included in the performance assessment model, in particular those governing radionuclide speciation and mass transport in the geological host formation. Geochemistry constitutes a core area of research in this regard. Clay-mineral rich formations are the subjects of advanced radwaste programs in several countries (France, Belgium, Switzerland...), principally because of their very low permeabilities and demonstrated capacities to retard by sorption most radionuclides. Among the key processes which must be represented in performance assessment models are (i) radioelement speciation (redox state, speciation, reactions determining radionuclide solid-solution partitioning) and (ii) diffusion-driven transport. The safety case must therefore demonstrate a detailed understanding of the physical-chemical phenomena governing the effects of these two aspects, for each radionuclide, within the geological barrier system. A wide range of coordinated (and internationally collaborated) research has been, and is being, carried out in order to gain the detailed scientific understanding needed for constructing those parts of the Safety Case supporting how radionuclide transfer is represented in the performance assessment model. The objective here is to illustrate how geochemical research contributes to this process and, above all, to identify a certain number of subjects which should be treated in priority.

The Effects of Performance Assessment Approach on Democratic Attitude of Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yalcinkaya, Elvan

2013-01-01

The aim of the research is to analyze the effects of performance assessment approach on democratic attitude of students. The research model is an experimental design with pretest-posttest control groups. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques are used for gathering of data in this research. 46 students participated in this research, with 23…

Examination of the Assumptions and Properties of the Graded Item Response Model: An Example Using a Mathematics Performance Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane, Suzanne; And Others

1995-01-01

Over 5,000 students participated in a study of the dimensionality and stability of the item parameter estimates of a mathematics performance assessment developed for the Quantitative Understanding: Amplifying Student Achievement and Reasoning (QUASAR) Project. Results demonstrate the test's dimensionality and illustrate ways to examine use of the…

On the Fidelity of Semi-distributed Hydrologic Model Simulations for Large Scale Catchment Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajami, H.; Sharma, A.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

Application of semi-distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks is a viable alternative to fully distributed hyper-resolution hydrologic models due to computational efficiency and resolving fine-scale spatial structure of hydrologic fluxes and states. However, fidelity of semi-distributed model simulations is impacted by (1) formulation of hydrologic response units (HRUs), and (2) aggregation of catchment properties for formulating simulation elements. Here, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed Soil Moisture and Runoff simulation Toolkit (SMART) for large catchment scale simulations. In SMART, topologically connected HRUs are delineated using thresholds obtained from topographic and geomorphic analysis of a catchment, and simulation elements are equivalent cross sections (ECS) representative of a hillslope in first order sub-basins. Earlier investigations have shown that formulation of ECSs at the scale of a first order sub-basin reduces computational time significantly without compromising simulation accuracy. However, the implementation of this approach has not been fully explored for catchment scale simulations. To assess SMART performance, we set-up the model over the Little Washita watershed in Oklahoma. Model evaluations using in-situ soil moisture observations show satisfactory model performance. In addition, we evaluated the performance of a number of soil moisture disaggregation schemes recently developed to provide spatially explicit soil moisture outputs at fine scale resolution. Our results illustrate that the statistical disaggregation scheme performs significantly better than the methods based on topographic data. Future work is focused on assessing the performance of SMART using remotely sensed soil moisture observations using spatially based model evaluation metrics.

A model for critical thinking measurement of dental student performance.

PubMed

Johnsen, David C; Finkelstein, Michael W; Marshall, Teresa A; Chalkley, Yvonne M

2009-02-01

The educational application of critical thinking has increased in the last twenty years with programs like problem-based learning. Performance measurement related to the dental student's capacity for critical thinking remains elusive, however. This article offers a model now in use to measure critical thinking applied to patient assessment and treatment planning across the four years of the dental school curriculum and across clinical disciplines. Two elements of the model are described: 1) a critical thinking measurement "cell," and 2) a list of minimally essential steps in critical thinking for patient assessment and treatment planning. Issues pertaining to this model are discussed: adaptations on the path from novice to expert, the role of subjective measurement, variations supportive of the model, and the correlation of individual and institutional assessment. The critical thinking measurement cell consists of interacting performance tasks and measures. The student identifies the step in the process (for example, chief complaint) with objective measurement; the student then applies the step to a patient or case with subjective measurement; the faculty member then combines the objective and subjective measurements into an evaluation on progress toward competence. The activities in the cell are then repeated until all the steps in the process have been addressed. A next task is to determine consistency across the four years and across clinical disciplines.

Assessment of the service performance of drainage system and transformation of pipeline network based on urban combined sewer system model.

PubMed

Peng, Hai-Qin; Liu, Yan; Wang, Hong-Wu; Ma, Lu-Ming

2015-10-01

In recent years, due to global climate change and rapid urbanization, extreme weather events occur to the city at an increasing frequency. Waterlogging is common because of heavy rains. In this case, the urban drainage system can no longer meet the original design requirements, resulting in traffic jams and even paralysis and post a threat to urban safety. Therefore, it provides a necessary foundation for urban drainage planning and design to accurately assess the capacity of the drainage system and correctly simulate the transport effect of drainage network and the carrying capacity of drainage facilities. This study adopts InfoWorks Integrated Catchment Management (ICM) to present the two combined sewer drainage systems in Yangpu District, Shanghai (China). The model can assist the design of the drainage system. Model calibration is performed based on the historical rainfall events. The calibrated model is used for the assessment of the outlet drainage and pipe loads for the storm scenario currently existing or possibly occurring in the future. The study found that the simulation and analysis results of the drainage system model were reliable. They could fully reflect the service performance of the drainage system in the study area and provide decision-making support for regional flood control and transformation of pipeline network.

A Literature Survey and Experimental Evaluation of the State-of-the-Art in Uplift Modeling: A Stepping Stone Toward the Development of Prescriptive Analytics.

PubMed

Devriendt, Floris; Moldovan, Darie; Verbeke, Wouter

2018-03-01

Prescriptive analytics extends on predictive analytics by allowing to estimate an outcome in function of control variables, allowing as such to establish the required level of control variables for realizing a desired outcome. Uplift modeling is at the heart of prescriptive analytics and aims at estimating the net difference in an outcome resulting from a specific action or treatment that is applied. In this article, a structured and detailed literature survey on uplift modeling is provided by identifying and contrasting various groups of approaches. In addition, evaluation metrics for assessing the performance of uplift models are reviewed. An experimental evaluation on four real-world data sets provides further insight into their use. Uplift random forests are found to be consistently among the best performing techniques in terms of the Qini and Gini measures, although considerable variability in performance across the various data sets of the experiments is observed. In addition, uplift models are frequently observed to be unstable and display a strong variability in terms of performance across different folds in the cross-validation experimental setup. This potentially threatens their actual use for business applications. Moreover, it is found that the available evaluation metrics do not provide an intuitively understandable indication of the actual use and performance of a model. Specifically, existing evaluation metrics do not facilitate a comparison of uplift models and predictive models and evaluate performance either at an arbitrary cutoff or over the full spectrum of potential cutoffs. In conclusion, we highlight the instability of uplift models and the need for an application-oriented approach to assess uplift models as prime topics for further research.

Performance of the Generalized S-X[squared] Item Fit Index for the Graded Response Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kang, Taehoon; Chen, Troy T.

2011-01-01

The utility of Orlando and Thissen's ("2000", "2003") S-X[squared] fit index was extended to the model-fit analysis of the graded response model (GRM). The performance of a modified S-X[squared] in assessing item-fit of the GRM was investigated in light of empirical Type I error rates and power with a simulation study having…

Characterizing the performance of ecosystem models across time scales: A spectral analysis of the North American Carbon Program site-level synthesis

Treesearch

Michael C. Dietze; Rodrigo Vargas; Andrew D. Richardson; Paul C. Stoy; Alan G. Barr; Ryan S. Anderson; M. Altaf Arain; Ian T. Baker; T. Andrew Black; Jing M. Chen; Philippe Ciais; Lawrence B. Flanagan; Christopher M. Gough; Robert F. Grant; David Hollinger; R. Cesar Izaurralde; Christopher J. Kucharik; Peter Lafleur; Shugang Liu; Erandathie Lokupitiya; Yiqi Luo; J. William Munger; Changhui Peng; Benjamin Poulter; David T. Price; Daniel M. Ricciuto; William J. Riley; Alok Kumar Sahoo; Kevin Schaefer; Andrew E. Suyker; Hanqin Tian; Christina Tonitto; Hans Verbeeck; Shashi B. Verma; Weifeng Wang; Ensheng Weng

2011-01-01

Ecosystem models are important tools for diagnosing the carbon cycle and projecting its behavior across space and time. Despite the fact that ecosystems respond to drivers at multiple time scales, most assessments of model performance do not discriminate different time scales. Spectral methods, such as wavelet analyses, present an alternative approach that enables the...

Analytical flow duration curves for summer streamflow in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Ana Clara; Portela, Maria Manuela; Rinaldo, Andrea; Schaefli, Bettina

2018-04-01

This paper proposes a systematic assessment of the performance of an analytical modeling framework for streamflow probability distributions for a set of 25 Swiss catchments. These catchments show a wide range of hydroclimatic regimes, including namely snow-influenced streamflows. The model parameters are calculated from a spatially averaged gridded daily precipitation data set and from observed daily discharge time series, both in a forward estimation mode (direct parameter calculation from observed data) and in an inverse estimation mode (maximum likelihood estimation). The performance of the linear and the nonlinear model versions is assessed in terms of reproducing observed flow duration curves and their natural variability. Overall, the nonlinear model version outperforms the linear model for all regimes, but the linear model shows a notable performance increase with catchment elevation. More importantly, the obtained results demonstrate that the analytical model performs well for summer discharge for all analyzed streamflow regimes, ranging from rainfall-driven regimes with summer low flow to snow and glacier regimes with summer high flow. These results suggest that the model's encoding of discharge-generating events based on stochastic soil moisture dynamics is more flexible than previously thought. As shown in this paper, the presence of snowmelt or ice melt is accommodated by a relative increase in the discharge-generating frequency, a key parameter of the model. Explicit quantification of this frequency increase as a function of mean catchment meteorological conditions is left for future research.

Grizzly Staus Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Benjamin; Zhang, Yongfeng; Chakraborty, Pritam

2014-09-01

This report summarizes work during FY 2014 to develop capabilities to predict embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel steel, and to assess the response of embrittled reactor pressure vessels to postulated accident conditions. This work has been conducted a three length scales. At the engineering scale, 3D fracture mechanics capabilities have been developed to calculate stress intensities and fracture toughnesses, to perform a deterministic assessment of whether a crack would propagate at the location of an existing flaw. This capability has been demonstrated on several types of flaws in a generic reactor pressure vessel model. Models have been developed at themore » scale of fracture specimens to develop a capability to determine how irradiation affects the fracture toughness of material. Verification work has been performed on a previously-developed model to determine the sensitivity of the model to specimen geometry and size effects. The effects of irradiation on the parameters of this model has been investigated. At lower length scales, work has continued in an ongoing to understand how irradiation and thermal aging affect the microstructure and mechanical properties of reactor pressure vessel steel. Previously-developed atomistic kinetic monte carlo models have been further developed and benchmarked against experimental data. Initial work has been performed to develop models of nucleation in a phase field model. Additional modeling work has also been performed to improve the fundamental understanding of the formation mechanisms and stability of matrix defects caused.« less

Prediction models for intracranial hemorrhage or major bleeding in patients on antiplatelet therapy: a systematic review and external validation study.

PubMed

Hilkens, N A; Algra, A; Greving, J P

2016-01-01

ESSENTIALS: Prediction models may help to identify patients at high risk of bleeding on antiplatelet therapy. We identified existing prediction models for bleeding and validated them in patients with cerebral ischemia. Five prediction models were identified, all of which had some methodological shortcomings. Performance in patients with cerebral ischemia was poor. Background Antiplatelet therapy is widely used in secondary prevention after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke. Bleeding is the main adverse effect of antiplatelet therapy and is potentially life threatening. Identification of patients at increased risk of bleeding may help target antiplatelet therapy. This study sought to identify existing prediction models for intracranial hemorrhage or major bleeding in patients on antiplatelet therapy and evaluate their performance in patients with cerebral ischemia. We systematically searched PubMed and Embase for existing prediction models up to December 2014. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed with the CHARMS checklist. Prediction models were externally validated in the European Stroke Prevention Study 2, comprising 6602 patients with a TIA or ischemic stroke. We assessed discrimination and calibration of included prediction models. Five prediction models were identified, of which two were developed in patients with previous cerebral ischemia. Three studies assessed major bleeding, one studied intracerebral hemorrhage and one gastrointestinal bleeding. None of the studies met all criteria of good quality. External validation showed poor discriminative performance, with c-statistics ranging from 0.53 to 0.64 and poor calibration. A limited number of prediction models is available that predict intracranial hemorrhage or major bleeding in patients on antiplatelet therapy. The methodological quality of the models varied, but was generally low. Predictive performance in patients with cerebral ischemia was poor. In order to reliably predict the risk of bleeding in patients with cerebral ischemia, development of a prediction model according to current methodological standards is needed. © 2015 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Biological and functional relevance of CASP predictions

PubMed Central

Liu, Tianyun; Ish‐Shalom, Shirbi; Torng, Wen; Lafita, Aleix; Bock, Christian; Mort, Matthew; Cooper, David N; Bliven, Spencer; Capitani, Guido; Mooney, Sean D.

2017-01-01

Abstract Our goal is to answer the question: compared with experimental structures, how useful are predicted models for functional annotation? We assessed the functional utility of predicted models by comparing the performances of a suite of methods for functional characterization on the predictions and the experimental structures. We identified 28 sites in 25 protein targets to perform functional assessment. These 28 sites included nine sites with known ligand binding (holo‐sites), nine sites that are expected or suggested by experimental authors for small molecule binding (apo‐sites), and Ten sites containing important motifs, loops, or key residues with important disease‐associated mutations. We evaluated the utility of the predictions by comparing their microenvironments to the experimental structures. Overall structural quality correlates with functional utility. However, the best‐ranked predictions (global) may not have the best functional quality (local). Our assessment provides an ability to discriminate between predictions with high structural quality. When assessing ligand‐binding sites, most prediction methods have higher performance on apo‐sites than holo‐sites. Some servers show consistently high performance for certain types of functional sites. Finally, many functional sites are associated with protein‐protein interaction. We also analyzed biologically relevant features from the protein assemblies of two targets where the active site spanned the protein‐protein interface. For the assembly targets, we find that the features in the models are mainly determined by the choice of template. PMID:28975675

EPA EcoBox

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This tool box of ecological risk assessment (Eco-box) includes over 400+ links to tools, models, and databases found within EPA and our Government partners designed that can aid risk assessors with performing exposure assessments.

The influence of system quality characteristics on health care providers' performance: Empirical evidence from Malaysia.

PubMed

Mohd Salleh, Mohd Idzwan; Zakaria, Nasriah; Abdullah, Rosni

The Ministry of Health Malaysia initiated the total hospital information system (THIS) as the first national electronic health record system for use in selected public hospitals across the country. Since its implementation 15 years ago, there has been the critical requirement for a systematic evaluation to assess its effectiveness in coping with the current system, task complexity, and rapid technological changes. The study aims to assess system quality factors to predict the performance of electronic health in a single public hospital in Malaysia. Non-probability sampling was employed for data collection among selected providers in a single hospital for two months. Data cleaning and bias checking were performed before final analysis in partial least squares-structural equation modeling. Convergent and discriminant validity assessments were satisfied the required criterions in the reflective measurement model. The structural model output revealed that the proposed adequate infrastructure, system interoperability, security control, and system compatibility were the significant predictors, where system compatibility became the most critical characteristic to influence an individual health care provider's performance. The previous DeLone and McLean information system success models should be extended to incorporate these technological factors in the medical system research domain to examine the effectiveness of modern electronic health record systems. In this study, care providers' performance was expected when the system usage fits with patients' needs that eventually increased their productivity. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The methods of assessment of health risk from exposure to radon and radon daughters].

PubMed

Demin, V F; Zhukovskiy, M V; Kiselev, S M

2014-01-01

The critical analysis of existing models of the relationship dose-effect (RDE) for radon exposure on human health has been performed. Conclusion about the necessity and possibility of improving these models has been made. A new improved version ofthe RDE has been developed. A technique for assessing the human health risk of exposure to radon, including the method for estimating of exposure doses of radon, an improved model of RDE, proper methodology risk assessment has been described. Methodology is proposed for the use in the territory of Russia.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2013-05-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

In-silico wear prediction for knee replacements--methodology and corroboration.

PubMed

Strickland, M A; Taylor, M

2009-07-22

The capability to predict in-vivo wear of knee replacements is a valuable pre-clinical analysis tool for implant designers. Traditionally, time-consuming experimental tests provided the principal means of investigating wear. Today, computational models offer an alternative. However, the validity of these models has not been demonstrated across a range of designs and test conditions, and several different formulas are in contention for estimating wear rates, limiting confidence in the predictive power of these in-silico models. This study collates and retrospectively simulates a wide range of experimental wear tests using fast rigid-body computational models with extant wear prediction algorithms, to assess the performance of current in-silico wear prediction tools. The number of tests corroborated gives a broader, more general assessment of the performance of these wear-prediction tools, and provides better estimates of the wear 'constants' used in computational models. High-speed rigid-body modelling allows a range of alternative algorithms to be evaluated. Whilst most cross-shear (CS)-based models perform comparably, the 'A/A+B' wear model appears to offer the best predictive power amongst existing wear algorithms. However, the range and variability of experimental data leaves considerable uncertainty in the results. More experimental data with reduced variability and more detailed reporting of studies will be necessary to corroborate these models with greater confidence. With simulation times reduced to only a few minutes, these models are ideally suited to large-volume 'design of experiment' or probabilistic studies (which are essential if pre-clinical assessment tools are to begin addressing the degree of variation observed clinically and in explanted components).

Comparative Assessment of a New Hydrological Modelling Approach for Prediction of Runoff in Gauged and Ungauged Basins, and Climate Change Impacts Assessment: A Case Study from Benin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GABA, C. O. U.; Alamou, E.; Afouda, A.; Diekkrüger, B.

2016-12-01

Assessing water resources is still an important challenge especially in the context of climatic changes. Although numerous hydrological models exist, new approaches are still under investigation. In this context, we investigate a new modelling approach based on the Physics Principle of Least Action which was first applied to the Bétérou catchment in Benin and gave very good results. The study presents new hypotheses to go further in the model development with a view of widening its application. The improved version of the model MODHYPMA was applied to sixteen (16) subcatchments in Bénin, West Africa. Its performance was compared to two well-known lumped conceptual models, the GR4J and HBV models. The model was successfully calibrated and validated and showed a good performance in most catchments. The analysis revealed that the three models have similar performance and timing errors. But in contrary to other models, MODHYMA is subject to a less loss of performance from calibration to validation. In order to evaluate the usefulness of our model for the prediction of runoff in ungauged basins, model parameters were estimated from the physical catchments characteristics. We relied on statistical methods applied on calibrated model parameters to deduce relationships between parameters and physical catchments characteristics. These relationships were further tested and validated on gauged basins that were considered ungauged. This regionalization was also performed for GR4J model.We obtained NSE values greater than 0.7 for MODHYPMA while the NSE values for GR4J were inferior to 0.5. In the presented study, the effects of climate change on water resources in the Ouémé catchment at the outlet of Savè (about 23 500 km2) are quantified. The output of a regional climate model was used as input to the hydrological models.Computed within the GLOWA-IMPETUS project, the future climate projections (describing a rainfall reduction of up to 15%) are derived from the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model.The results reveal a significant decrease in future water resources (of -66% to -53% for MODHYPMA and of -59% to -46% for GR4J) for the IPCC climate scenarios A1B and B1.

Performance assessment of a compressive sensing single-pixel imaging system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du Bosq, Todd W.; Preece, Bradley L.

2017-04-01

Conventional sensors measure the light incident at each pixel in a focal plane array. Compressive sensing (CS) involves capturing a smaller number of unconventional measurements from the scene, and then using a companion process to recover the image. CS has the potential to acquire imagery with equivalent information content to a large format array while using smaller, cheaper, and lower bandwidth components. However, the benefits of CS do not come without compromise. The CS architecture chosen must effectively balance between physical considerations, reconstruction accuracy, and reconstruction speed to meet operational requirements. Performance modeling of CS imagers is challenging due to the complexity and nonlinearity of the system and reconstruction algorithm. To properly assess the value of such systems, it is necessary to fully characterize the image quality, including artifacts and sensitivity to noise. Imagery of a two-handheld object target set was collected using an shortwave infrared single-pixel CS camera for various ranges and number of processed measurements. Human perception experiments were performed to determine the identification performance within the trade space. The performance of the nonlinear CS camera was modeled by mapping the nonlinear degradations to an equivalent linear shift invariant model. Finally, the limitations of CS modeling techniques are discussed.

Engineered Barrier System performance requirements systems study report. Revision 02

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balady, M.A.

This study evaluates the current design concept for the Engineered Barrier System (EBS), in concert with the current understanding of the geologic setting to assess whether enhancements to the required performance of the EBS are necessary. The performance assessment calculations are performed by coupling the EBS with the geologic setting based on the models (some of which were updated for this study) and assumptions used for the 1995 Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). The need for enhancements is determined by comparing the performance assessment results against the EBS related performance requirements. Subsystem quantitative performance requirements related to the EBS includemore » the requirement to allow no more than 1% of the waste packages (WPs) to fail before 1,000 years after permanent closure of the repository, as well as a requirement to control the release rate of radionuclides from the EBS. The EBS performance enhancements considered included additional engineered components as well as evaluating additional performance available from existing design features but for which no performance credit is currently being taken.« less

An Empirical Test of Five Prominent Explanations for the Black-White Academic Performance Gap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oates, Gary L. St. C.

2009-01-01

The viability of five prominent explanations for the black-white performance gap ("academic engagement," "cultural capital," "social capital," "school quality" and "biased treatment") is examined using NELS data and a LISREL model that adjusts for clustering of students within schools. Empirical models have typically assessed these factors…

Multilevel Structural Equation Models for the Analysis of Comparative Data on Educational Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstein, Harvey; Bonnet, Gerard; Rocher, Thierry

2007-01-01

The Programme for International Student Assessment comparative study of reading performance among 15-year-olds is reanalyzed using statistical procedures that allow the full complexity of the data structures to be explored. The article extends existing multilevel factor analysis and structural equation models and shows how this can extract richer…

Vicarious and Persuasive Influences on Efficacy Expectations and Intentions To Perform Breast Self-Examination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Ronald B.

2000-01-01

Tests the impact of symbolic modeling and persuasive efficacy information on self-efficacy beliefs and intentions to perform breast self-examinations among 147 undergraduate students. Assesses the effects of these modes of efficacy induction on fear arousal and response-outcome expectations. Finds symbolic modeling engendered greater efficacy…

Performance of a Deep-Learning Neural Network Model in Assessing Skeletal Maturity on Pediatric Hand Radiographs.

PubMed

Larson, David B; Chen, Matthew C; Lungren, Matthew P; Halabi, Safwan S; Stence, Nicholas V; Langlotz, Curtis P

2018-04-01

Purpose To compare the performance of a deep-learning bone age assessment model based on hand radiographs with that of expert radiologists and that of existing automated models. Materials and Methods The institutional review board approved the study. A total of 14 036 clinical hand radiographs and corresponding reports were obtained from two children's hospitals to train and validate the model. For the first test set, composed of 200 examinations, the mean of bone age estimates from the clinical report and three additional human reviewers was used as the reference standard. Overall model performance was assessed by comparing the root mean square (RMS) and mean absolute difference (MAD) between the model estimates and the reference standard bone ages. Ninety-five percent limits of agreement were calculated in a pairwise fashion for all reviewers and the model. The RMS of a second test set composed of 913 examinations from the publicly available Digital Hand Atlas was compared with published reports of an existing automated model. Results The mean difference between bone age estimates of the model and of the reviewers was 0 years, with a mean RMS and MAD of 0.63 and 0.50 years, respectively. The estimates of the model, the clinical report, and the three reviewers were within the 95% limits of agreement. RMS for the Digital Hand Atlas data set was 0.73 years, compared with 0.61 years of a previously reported model. Conclusion A deep-learning convolutional neural network model can estimate skeletal maturity with accuracy similar to that of an expert radiologist and to that of existing automated models. © RSNA, 2017 An earlier incorrect version of this article appeared online. This article was corrected on January 19, 2018.

Vodcasts and active-learning exercises in a "flipped classroom" model of a renal pharmacotherapy module.

PubMed

Pierce, Richard; Fox, Jeremy

2012-12-12

To implement a "flipped classroom" model for a renal pharmacotherapy topic module and assess the impact on pharmacy students' performance and attitudes. Students viewed vodcasts (video podcasts) of lectures prior to the scheduled class and then discussed interactive cases of patients with end-stage renal disease in class. A process-oriented guided inquiry learning (POGIL) activity was developed and implemented that complemented, summarized, and allowed for application of the material contained in the previously viewed lectures. Students' performance on the final examination significantly improved compared to performance of students the previous year who completed the same module in a traditional classroom setting. Students' opinions of the POGIL activity and the flipped classroom instructional model were mostly positive. Implementing a flipped classroom model to teach a renal pharmacotherapy module resulted in improved student performance and favorable student perceptions about the instructional approach. Some of the factors that may have contributed to students' improved scores included: student mediated contact with the course material prior to classes, benchmark and formative assessments administered during the module, and the interactive class activities.

Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

PubMed

McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

2016-08-01

To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P < 0.00001) and octreotide (odds ratio 3.30, P < 0.00001). When adjusting for risk, performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

Assessment of vaccine testing at three laboratories using the guinea pig model of tuberculosis.

PubMed

Grover, Ajay; Troudt, Jolynn; Arnett, Kimberly; Izzo, Linda; Lucas, Megan; Strain, Katie; McFarland, Christine; Hall, Yper; McMurray, David; Williams, Ann; Dobos, Karen; Izzo, Angelo

2012-01-01

The guinea pig model of tuberculosis is used extensively in different locations to assess the efficacy of novel tuberculosis vaccines during pre-clinical development. Two key assays are used to measure protection against virulent challenge: a 30 day post-infection assessment of mycobacterial burden and long-term post-infection survival and pathology analysis. To determine the consistency and robustness of the guinea pig model for testing vaccines, a comparative assessment between three sites that are currently involved in testing tuberculosis vaccines from external providers was performed. Each site was asked to test two "subunit" type vaccines in their routine animal model as if testing vaccines from a provider. All sites performed a 30 day study, and one site also performed a long-term survival/pathology study. Despite some differences in experimental approach between the sites, such as the origin of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain and the type of aerosol exposure device used to infect the animals and the source of the guinea pigs, the data obtained between sites were consistent in regard to the ability of each "vaccine" tested to reduce the mycobacterial burden. The observations also showed that there was good concurrence between the results of short-term and long-term studies. This validation exercise means that efficacy data can be compared between sites. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Public-Private Partnership Develops and Externally Validates a 30-Day Hospital Readmission Risk Prediction Model

PubMed Central

Choudhry, Shahid A.; Li, Jing; Davis, Darcy; Erdmann, Cole; Sikka, Rishi; Sutariya, Bharat

2013-01-01

Introduction: Preventing the occurrence of hospital readmissions is needed to improve quality of care and foster population health across the care continuum. Hospitals are being held accountable for improving transitions of care to avert unnecessary readmissions. Advocate Health Care in Chicago and Cerner (ACC) collaborated to develop all-cause, 30-day hospital readmission risk prediction models to identify patients that need interventional resources. Ideally, prediction models should encompass several qualities: they should have high predictive ability; use reliable and clinically relevant data; use vigorous performance metrics to assess the models; be validated in populations where they are applied; and be scalable in heterogeneous populations. However, a systematic review of prediction models for hospital readmission risk determined that most performed poorly (average C-statistic of 0.66) and efforts to improve their performance are needed for widespread usage. Methods: The ACC team incorporated electronic health record data, utilized a mixed-method approach to evaluate risk factors, and externally validated their prediction models for generalizability. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied on the patient cohort and then split for derivation and internal validation. Stepwise logistic regression was performed to develop two predictive models: one for admission and one for discharge. The prediction models were assessed for discrimination ability, calibration, overall performance, and then externally validated. Results: The ACC Admission and Discharge Models demonstrated modest discrimination ability during derivation, internal and external validation post-recalibration (C-statistic of 0.76 and 0.78, respectively), and reasonable model fit during external validation for utility in heterogeneous populations. Conclusions: The ACC Admission and Discharge Models embody the design qualities of ideal prediction models. The ACC plans to continue its partnership to further improve and develop valuable clinical models. PMID:24224068

Hybrid Modeling Approach to Estimate Exposures of Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) for the National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA).

PubMed

Scheffe, Richard D; Strum, Madeleine; Phillips, Sharon B; Thurman, James; Eyth, Alison; Fudge, Steve; Morris, Mark; Palma, Ted; Cook, Richard

2016-11-15

A hybrid air quality model has been developed and applied to estimate annual concentrations of 40 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) across the continental United States (CONUS) to support the 2011 calendar year National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). By combining a chemical transport model (CTM) with a Gaussian dispersion model, both reactive and nonreactive HAPs are accommodated across local to regional spatial scales, through a multiplicative technique designed to improve mass conservation relative to previous additive methods. The broad scope of multiple pollutants capturing regional to local spatial scale patterns across a vast spatial domain is precedent setting within the air toxics community. The hybrid design exhibits improved performance relative to the stand alone CTM and dispersion model. However, model performance varies widely across pollutant categories and quantifiably definitive performance assessments are hampered by a limited observation base and challenged by the multiple physical and chemical attributes of HAPs. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde are the dominant HAP concentration and cancer risk drivers, characterized by strong regional signals associated with naturally emitted carbonyl precursors enhanced in urban transport corridors with strong mobile source sector emissions. The multiple pollutant emission characteristics of combustion dominated source sectors creates largely similar concentration patterns across the majority of HAPs. However, reactive carbonyls exhibit significantly less spatial variability relative to nonreactive HAPs across the CONUS.

A Unified Model of Performance for Predicting the Effects of Sleep and Caffeine

PubMed Central

Ramakrishnan, Sridhar; Wesensten, Nancy J.; Kamimori, Gary H.; Moon, James E.; Balkin, Thomas J.; Reifman, Jaques

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: Existing mathematical models of neurobehavioral performance cannot predict the beneficial effects of caffeine across the spectrum of sleep loss conditions, limiting their practical utility. Here, we closed this research gap by integrating a model of caffeine effects with the recently validated unified model of performance (UMP) into a single, unified modeling framework. We then assessed the accuracy of this new UMP in predicting performance across multiple studies. Methods: We hypothesized that the pharmacodynamics of caffeine vary similarly during both wakefulness and sleep, and that caffeine has a multiplicative effect on performance. Accordingly, to represent the effects of caffeine in the UMP, we multiplied a dose-dependent caffeine factor (which accounts for the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of caffeine) to the performance estimated in the absence of caffeine. We assessed the UMP predictions in 14 distinct laboratory- and field-study conditions, including 7 different sleep-loss schedules (from 5 h of sleep per night to continuous sleep loss for 85 h) and 6 different caffeine doses (from placebo to repeated 200 mg doses to a single dose of 600 mg). Results: The UMP accurately predicted group-average psychomotor vigilance task performance data across the different sleep loss and caffeine conditions (6% < error < 27%), yielding greater accuracy for mild and moderate sleep loss conditions than for more severe cases. Overall, accounting for the effects of caffeine resulted in improved predictions (after caffeine consumption) by up to 70%. Conclusions: The UMP provides the first comprehensive tool for accurate selection of combinations of sleep schedules and caffeine countermeasure strategies to optimize neurobehavioral performance. Citation: Ramakrishnan S, Wesensten NJ, Kamimori GH, Moon JE, Balkin TJ, Reifman J. A unified model of performance for predicting the effects of sleep and caffeine. SLEEP 2016;39(10):1827–1841. PMID:27397562

REVIEW OF MECHANISTIC UNDERSTANDING AND MODELING AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR PREDICTING CEMENTITIOUS BARRIER PERFORMANCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Langton, C.; Kosson, D.

2009-11-30

Cementitious barriers for nuclear applications are one of the primary controls for preventing or limiting radionuclide release into the environment. At the present time, performance and risk assessments do not fully incorporate the effectiveness of engineered barriers because the processes that influence performance are coupled and complicated. Better understanding the behavior of cementitious barriers is necessary to evaluate and improve the design of materials and structures used for radioactive waste containment, life extension of current nuclear facilities, and design of future nuclear facilities, including those needed for nuclear fuel storage and processing, nuclear power production and waste management. The focusmore » of the Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) literature review is to document the current level of knowledge with respect to: (1) mechanisms and processes that directly influence the performance of cementitious materials (2) methodologies for modeling the performance of these mechanisms and processes and (3) approaches to addressing and quantifying uncertainties associated with performance predictions. This will serve as an important reference document for the professional community responsible for the design and performance assessment of cementitious materials in nuclear applications. This review also provides a multi-disciplinary foundation for identification, research, development and demonstration of improvements in conceptual understanding, measurements and performance modeling that would be lead to significant reductions in the uncertainties and improved confidence in the estimating the long-term performance of cementitious materials in nuclear applications. This report identifies: (1) technology gaps that may be filled by the CBP project and also (2) information and computational methods that are in currently being applied in related fields but have not yet been incorporated into performance assessments of cementitious barriers. The various chapters contain both a description of the mechanism or and a discussion of the current approaches to modeling the phenomena.« less

The Role of Simulation in Microsurgical Training.

PubMed

Evgeniou, Evgenios; Walker, Harriet; Gujral, Sameer

Simulation has been established as an integral part of microsurgical training. The aim of this study was to assess and categorize the various simulation models in relation to the complexity of the microsurgical skill being taught and analyze the assessment methods commonly employed in microsurgical simulation training. Numerous courses have been established using simulation models. These models can be categorized, according to the level of complexity of the skill being taught, into basic, intermediate, and advanced. Microsurgical simulation training should be assessed using validated assessment methods. Assessment methods vary significantly from subjective expert opinions to self-assessment questionnaires and validated global rating scales. The appropriate assessment method should carefully be chosen based on the simulation modality. Simulation models should be validated, and a model with appropriate fidelity should be chosen according to the microsurgical skill being taught. Assessment should move from traditional simple subjective evaluations of trainee performance to validated tools. Future studies should assess the transferability of skills gained during simulation training to the real-life setting. Copyright © 2018 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stata Modules for Calculating Novel Predictive Performance Indices for Logistic Models

PubMed Central

Barkhordari, Mahnaz; Padyab, Mojgan; Hadaegh, Farzad; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bozorgmanesh, Mohammadreza

2016-01-01

Background Prediction is a fundamental part of prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The development of prediction algorithms based on the multivariate regression models loomed several decades ago. Parallel with predictive models development, biomarker researches emerged in an impressively great scale. The key question is how best to assess and quantify the improvement in risk prediction offered by new biomarkers or more basically how to assess the performance of a risk prediction model. Discrimination, calibration, and added predictive value have been recently suggested to be used while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models’ with and without novel biomarkers. Objectives Lack of user-friendly statistical software has restricted implementation of novel model assessment methods while examining novel biomarkers. We intended, thus, to develop a user-friendly software that could be used by researchers with few programming skills. Materials and Methods We have written a Stata command that is intended to help researchers obtain cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index and (NRI) and relative and absolute Integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI) for logistic-based regression analyses.We applied the commands to a real data on women participating the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information of a family history of premature CVD, waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of the Framingham’s “general CVD risk” algorithm. Results The command is addpred for logistic regression models. Conclusions The Stata package provided herein can encourage the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of ever-emerging plethora of novel biomarkers. PMID:27279830

Optimal healthcare decision making under multiple mathematical models: application in prostate cancer screening.

PubMed

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Silberholz, John; Trikalinos, Thomas

2018-03-01

Important decisions related to human health, such as screening strategies for cancer, need to be made without a satisfactory understanding of the underlying biological and other processes. Rather, they are often informed by mathematical models that approximate reality. Often multiple models have been made to study the same phenomenon, which may lead to conflicting decisions. It is natural to seek a decision making process that identifies decisions that all models find to be effective, and we propose such a framework in this work. We apply the framework in prostate cancer screening to identify prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based strategies that perform well under all considered models. We use heuristic search to identify strategies that trade off between optimizing the average across all models' assessments and being "conservative" by optimizing the most pessimistic model assessment. We identified three recently published mathematical models that can estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of PSA-based screening strategies and identified 64 strategies that trade off between maximizing the average and the most pessimistic model assessments. All prescribe PSA thresholds that increase with age, and 57 involve biennial screening. Strategies with higher assessments with the pessimistic model start screening later, stop screening earlier, and use higher PSA thresholds at earlier ages. The 64 strategies outperform 22 previously published expert-generated strategies. The 41 most "conservative" ones remained better than no screening with all models in extensive sensitivity analyses. We augment current comparative modeling approaches by identifying strategies that perform well under all models, for various degrees of decision makers' conservativeness.

Performance of a Fuel-Cell-Powered, Small Electric Airplane Assessed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berton, Jeffrey J.

2004-01-01

Rapidly emerging fuel-cell-power technologies may be used to launch a new revolution of electric propulsion systems for light aircraft. Future small electric airplanes using fuel cell technologies hold the promise of high reliability, low maintenance, low noise, and - with the exception of water vapor - zero emissions. An analytical feasibility and performance assessment was conducted by NASA Glenn Research Center's Airbreathing Systems Analysis Office of a fuel-cell-powered, propeller-driven, small electric airplane based on a model of the MCR-01 two-place kitplane (Dyn'Aero, Darois, France). This assessment was conducted in parallel with an ongoing effort by the Advanced Technology Products Corporation and the Foundation for Advancing Science and Technology Education. Their project - partially funded by a NASA grant - is to design, build, and fly the first manned, continuously propelled, nongliding electric airplane. In our study, an analytical performance model of a proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell propulsion system was developed and applied to a notional, two-place light airplane modeled after the MCR-01 kitplane. The PEM fuel cell stack was fed pure hydrogen fuel and humidified ambient air via a small automotive centrifugal supercharger. The fuel cell performance models were based on chemical reaction analyses calibrated with published data from the fledgling U.S. automotive fuel cell industry. Electric propeller motors, rated at two shaft power levels in separate assessments, were used to directly drive a two-bladed, variable-pitch propeller. Fuel sources considered were compressed hydrogen gas and cryogenic liquid hydrogen. Both of these fuel sources provided pure, contaminant-free hydrogen for the PEM cells.

Photovoltaic performance models - A report card

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. H.; Reiter, L. R.

1985-01-01

Models for the analysis of photovoltaic (PV) systems' designs, implementation policies, and economic performance, have proliferated while keeping pace with rapid changes in basic PV technology and extensive empirical data compiled for such systems' performance. Attention is presently given to the results of a comparative assessment of ten well documented and widely used models, which range in complexity from first-order approximations of PV system performance to in-depth, circuit-level characterizations. The comparisons were made on the basis of the performance of their subsystem, as well as system, elements. The models fall into three categories in light of their degree of aggregation into subsystems: (1) simplified models for first-order calculation of system performance, with easily met input requirements but limited capability to address more than a small variety of design considerations; (2) models simulating PV systems in greater detail, encompassing types primarily intended for either concentrator-incorporating or flat plate collector PV systems; and (3) models not specifically designed for PV system performance modeling, but applicable to aspects of electrical system design. Models ignoring subsystem failure or degradation are noted to exclude operating and maintenance characteristics as well.

Individualized Cognitive Modeling for Close-Loop Task Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Guangfan; Xu, Roger; Wang, Wei; Li, Jiang; Schnell, Tom; Keller, Mike

2010-01-01

An accurate real-time operator functional state assessment makes it possible to perform task management, minimize risks, and improve mission performance. In this paper, we discuss the development of an individualized operator functional state assessment model that identifies states likely leading to operational errors. To address large individual variations, we use two different approaches to build a model for each individual using its data as well as data from subjects with similar responses. If a subject's response is similar to that of the individual of interest in a specific functional state, all the training data from this subject will be used to build the individual model. The individualization methods have been successfully verified and validated with a driving test data set provided by University of Iowa. With the individualized models, the mean squared error can be significantly decreased (by around 20%).

New Dental Accreditation Standard on Critical Thinking: A Call for Learning Models, Outcomes, Assessments.

PubMed

Johnsen, David C; Williams, John N; Baughman, Pauletta Gay; Roesch, Darren M; Feldman, Cecile A

2015-10-01

This opinion article applauds the recent introduction of a new dental accreditation standard addressing critical thinking and problem-solving, but expresses a need for additional means for dental schools to demonstrate they are meeting the new standard because articulated outcomes, learning models, and assessments of competence are still being developed. Validated, research-based learning models are needed to define reference points against which schools can design and assess the education they provide to their students. This article presents one possible learning model for this purpose and calls for national experts from within and outside dental education to develop models that will help schools define outcomes and assess performance in educating their students to become practitioners who are effective critical thinkers and problem-solvers.

Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Risk Based on Multiple Longitudinal Biomarkers

PubMed Central

Yang, Lili; Yu, Menggang; Gao, Sujuan

2016-01-01

In the last decade, few topics in the area of cardiovascular disease (CVD) research have received as much attention as risk prediction. One of the well documented risk factors for CVD is high blood pressure (BP). Traditional CVD risk prediction models consider BP levels measured at a single time and such models form the basis for current clinical guidelines for CVD prevention. However, in clinical practice, BP levels are often observed and recorded in a longitudinal fashion. Information on BP trajectories can be powerful predictors for CVD events. We consider joint modeling of time to coronary artery disease and individual longitudinal measures of systolic and diastolic BPs in a primary care cohort with up to 20 years of follow-up. We applied novel prediction metrics to assess the predictive performance of joint models. Predictive performances of proposed joint models and other models were assessed via simulations and illustrated using the primary care cohort. PMID:26439685

Development of a Remote Accessibility Assessment System through three-dimensional reconstruction technology.

PubMed

Kim, Jong Bae; Brienza, David M

2006-01-01

A Remote Accessibility Assessment System (RAAS) that uses three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction technology is being developed; it enables clinicians to assess the wheelchair accessibility of users' built environments from a remote location. The RAAS uses commercial software to construct 3-D virtualized environments from photographs. We developed custom screening algorithms and instruments for analyzing accessibility. Characteristics of the camera and 3-D reconstruction software chosen for the system significantly affect its overall reliability. In this study, we performed an accuracy assessment to verify that commercial hardware and software can construct accurate 3-D models by analyzing the accuracy of dimensional measurements in a virtual environment and a comparison of dimensional measurements from 3-D models created with four cameras/settings. Based on these two analyses, we were able to specify a consumer-grade digital camera and PhotoModeler (EOS Systems, Inc, Vancouver, Canada) software for this system. Finally, we performed a feasibility analysis of the system in an actual environment to evaluate its ability to assess the accessibility of a wheelchair user's typical built environment. The field test resulted in an accurate accessibility assessment and thus validated our system.

A Framework for Assessing the Performance of Nonprofit Organizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chongmyoung; Nowell, Branda

2015-01-01

Performance measurement has gained increased importance in the nonprofit sector, and contemporary literature is populated with numerous performance measurement frameworks. In this article, we seek to accomplish two goals. First, we review contemporary models of nonprofit performance measurement to develop an integrated framework in order to…

Modeling and performance assessment in QinetiQ of EO and IR airborne reconnaissance systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, John W.; Potter, Gary E.

2002-11-01

QinetiQ are the technical authority responsible for specifying the performance requirements for the procurement of airborne reconnaissance systems, on behalf of the UK MoD. They are also responsible for acceptance of delivered systems, overseeing and verifying the installed system performance as predicted and then assessed by the contractor. Measures of functional capability are central to these activities. The conduct of these activities utilises the broad technical insight and wide range of analysis tools and models available within QinetiQ. This paper focuses on the tools, methods and models that are applicable to systems based on EO and IR sensors. The tools, methods and models are described, and representative output for systems that QinetiQ has been responsible for is presented. The principle capability applicable to EO and IR airborne reconnaissance systems is the STAR (Simulation Tools for Airborne Reconnaissance) suite of models. STAR generates predictions of performance measures such as GRD (Ground Resolved Distance) and GIQE (General Image Quality) NIIRS (National Imagery Interpretation Rating Scales). It also generates images representing sensor output, using the scene generation software CAMEO-SIM and the imaging sensor model EMERALD. The simulated image 'quality' is fully correlated with the predicted non-imaging performance measures. STAR also generates image and table data that is compliant with STANAG 7023, which may be used to test ground station functionality.

Development of Risk Insights for Regulatory Review of a Near-Surface Disposal Facility for Radioactive Waste

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Esh, D.W.; Ridge, A.C.; Thaggard, M.

2006-07-01

Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2005 (NDAA) requires the Department of Energy (DOE) to consult with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) about non-High Level Waste (HLW) determinations. In its consultative role, NRC performs technical reviews of DOE's waste determinations but does not have regulatory authority over DOE's waste disposal activities. The safety of disposal is evaluated by comparing predicted disposal facility performance to the performance objectives specified in NRC regulations for the disposal of low-level waste (10 CFR Part 61 Subpart C). The performance objectives contain criteria for protection of themore » public, protection of inadvertent intruders, protection of workers, and stability of the disposal site after closure. The potential radiological dose to receptors typically is evaluated with a performance assessment (PA) model that simulates the release of radionuclides from the disposal site, transport of radionuclides through the environment, and exposure of potential receptors to residual contamination for thousands of years. This paper describes NRC's development and use of independent performance assessment modeling to facilitate review of DOE's non-HLW determination for the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) at the Savannah River Site. NRC's review of the safety of near-surface disposal of radioactive waste at the SDF was facilitated and focused by risk insights developed with an independent PA model. The main components of NRC's performance assessment model are presented. The development of risk insights that allow the staff to focus review efforts on those areas that are most important to satisfying the performance objectives is discussed. Uncertainty analysis was performed of the full stochastic model using genetic variable selection algorithms. The results of the uncertainty analysis were then used to guide the development of simulations of other scenarios to understand the key risk drivers and risk limiters of the SDF. Review emphasis was placed on those aspects of the disposal system that were expected to drive performance: the physical and chemical performance of the cementitious wasteform and concrete vaults. Refinement of the modeling of the degradation and release from the cementitious wasteform had a significant effect on the predicted dose to a member of the public. (authors)« less

Review of early assessment models of innovative medical technologies.

PubMed

Fasterholdt, Iben; Krahn, Murray; Kidholm, Kristian; Yderstræde, Knud Bonnet; Pedersen, Kjeld Møller

2017-08-01

Hospitals increasingly make decisions regarding the early development of and investment in technologies, but a formal evaluation model for assisting hospitals early on in assessing the potential of innovative medical technologies is lacking. This article provides an overview of models for early assessment in different health organisations and discusses which models hold most promise for hospital decision makers. A scoping review of published studies between 1996 and 2015 was performed using nine databases. The following information was collected: decision context, decision problem, and a description of the early assessment model. 2362 articles were identified and 12 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. An additional 12 studies were identified and included in the review by searching reference lists. The majority of the 24 early assessment studies were variants of traditional cost-effectiveness analysis. Around one fourth of the studies presented an evaluation model with a broader focus than cost-effectiveness. Uncertainty was mostly handled by simple sensitivity or scenario analysis. This review shows that evaluation models using known methods assessing cost-effectiveness are most prevalent in early assessment, but seems ill-suited for early assessment in hospitals. Four models provided some usable elements for the development of a hospital-based model. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Structural Equation Modeling to Assess Functional Connectivity in the Brain: Power and Sample Size Considerations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sideridis, Georgios; Simos, Panagiotis; Papanicolaou, Andrew; Fletcher, Jack

2014-01-01

The present study assessed the impact of sample size on the power and fit of structural equation modeling applied to functional brain connectivity hypotheses. The data consisted of time-constrained minimum norm estimates of regional brain activity during performance of a reading task obtained with magnetoencephalography. Power analysis was first…

An Analysis of Peer Assessment through Many Facet Rasch Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Melek Gülsah; Teker, Gülsen Tasdelen; Güler, Nese

2016-01-01

This study analyses peer assessment through many facet Rasch model (MFRM). The research was performed with 91 undergraduate students and with lecturer teaching the course. The research data were collected with holistic rubric employed by 6 peers and the lecturer in rating the projects prepared by 85 students taking the course. This study analyses…

Examining Factors Affecting Science Achievement of Hong Kong in PISA 2006 Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Terence Yuk Ping; Lau, Kwok Chi

2014-01-01

This study uses hierarchical linear modeling to examine the influence of a range of factors on the science performances of Hong Kong students in PISA 2006. Hong Kong has been consistently ranked highly in international science assessments, such as Programme for International Student Assessment and Trends in International Mathematics and Science…

Using Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis to Test Measurement Invariance in Raters: A Clinical Skills Examination Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahraman, Nilufer; Brown, Crystal B.

2015-01-01

Psychometric models based on structural equation modeling framework are commonly used in many multiple-choice test settings to assess measurement invariance of test items across examinee subpopulations. The premise of the current article is that they may also be useful in the context of performance assessment tests to test measurement invariance…

Governance of Higher Education in Britain: The Significance of the Research Assessment Exercises for the Funding Council Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tapper, Ted; Salter, Brian

2004-01-01

This article uses the political struggles that have enveloped the research assessment exercises (RAEs) to interpret the UK's current funding council model of governance. Ironically, the apparently widespread improvement in the research performance of British universities, as demonstrated by RAE 2001, has made it more difficult to distribute…

The performance evaluation model of mining project founded on the weight optimization entropy value method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Chao; Chen, Shou

2017-01-01

According to the traditional entropy value method still have low evaluation accuracy when evaluating the performance of mining projects, a performance evaluation model of mineral project founded on improved entropy is proposed. First establish a new weight assignment model founded on compatible matrix analysis of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy value method, when the compatibility matrix analysis to achieve consistency requirements, if it has differences between subjective weights and objective weights, moderately adjust both proportions, then on this basis, the fuzzy evaluation matrix for performance evaluation. The simulation experiments show that, compared with traditional entropy and compatible matrix analysis method, the proposed performance evaluation model of mining project based on improved entropy value method has higher accuracy assessment.

Different Factor Structures for Women’s Aggression and Victimization Among Women Who Used Aggression Against Male Partners

PubMed Central

Swan, Suzanne C.; Gambone, Laura J.; Van Horn, M. Lee; Snow, David L.; Sullivan, Tami P.

2013-01-01

Theories and measures of women’s aggression in intimate relationships are only beginning to be developed. This study provides a first step in conceptualizing the measurement of women’s aggression by examining how well three widely used measures perform in assessing women’s perpetration of and victimization by aggression in their intimate relationships with men (i.e., the Conflict Tactics Scales 2; Straus, Hamby, & Warren, 2003, the Sexual Experiences Survey; Koss, Gidycz, & Wisniewski, 1987, and the Psychological Maltreatment of Women Inventory; Tolman, 1999). These constructs were examined in a diverse sample of 412 African American, Latina, and White women who had all recently used physical aggression against a male intimate partner. The factor structures and psychometric properties of perpetration and victimization models using these measures were compared. Results indicate that the factor structure of women’s perpetration differs from that of women’s victimization in theoretically meaningful ways. In the victimization model, all factors performed well in contributing to the measurement of the latent victimization construct. In contrast, the perpetration model performed well in assessing women’s physical and psychological aggression, but performed poorly in assessing women’s sexual aggression, coercive control, and jealous monitoring. Findings suggest that the power and control model of intimate partner violence may apply well to women’s victimization, but not as well to their perpetration. PMID:23012348

Tooth-size discrepancy: A comparison between manual and digital methods

PubMed Central

Correia, Gabriele Dória Cabral; Habib, Fernando Antonio Lima; Vogel, Carlos Jorge

2014-01-01

Introduction Technological advances in Dentistry have emerged primarily in the area of diagnostic tools. One example is the 3D scanner, which can transform plaster models into three-dimensional digital models. Objective This study aimed to assess the reliability of tooth size-arch length discrepancy analysis measurements performed on three-dimensional digital models, and compare these measurements with those obtained from plaster models. Material and Methods To this end, plaster models of lower dental arches and their corresponding three-dimensional digital models acquired with a 3Shape R700T scanner were used. All of them had lower permanent dentition. Four different tooth size-arch length discrepancy calculations were performed on each model, two of which by manual methods using calipers and brass wire, and two by digital methods using linear measurements and parabolas. Results Data were statistically assessed using Friedman test and no statistically significant differences were found between the two methods (P > 0.05), except for values found by the linear digital method which revealed a slight, non-significant statistical difference. Conclusions Based on the results, it is reasonable to assert that any of these resources used by orthodontists to clinically assess tooth size-arch length discrepancy can be considered reliable. PMID:25279529

Comparing Models of Spontaneous Variations, Maneuvers and Indexes to Assess Dynamic Cerebral Autoregulation.

PubMed

Chacón, Max; Noh, Sun-Ho; Landerretche, Jean; Jara, José L

2018-01-01

We analyzed the performance of linear and nonlinear models to assess dynamic cerebral autoregulation (dCA) from spontaneous variations in healthy subjects and compared it with the use of two known maneuvers to abruptly change arterial blood pressure (BP): thigh cuffs and sit-to-stand. Cerebral blood flow velocity and BP were measured simultaneously at rest and while the maneuvers were performed in 20 healthy subjects. To analyze the spontaneous variations, we implemented two types of models using support vector machine (SVM): linear and nonlinear finite impulse response models. The classic autoregulation index (ARI) and the more recently proposed model-free ARI (mfARI) were used as measures of dCA. An ANOVA analysis was applied to compare the different methods and the coefficient of variation was calculated to evaluate their variability. There are differences between indexes, but not between models and maneuvers. The mfARI index with the sit-to-stand maneuver shows the least variability. Support vector machine modeling of spontaneous variation with the mfARI index could be used for the assessment of dCA as an alternative to maneuvers to introduce large BP fluctuations.

A multi-model assessment of terrestrial biosphere model data needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardella, A.; Cowdery, E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Desai, A. R.; Duveneck, M.; Fer, I.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; McCabe, T.; Minunno, F.; Raiho, A.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Thomas, A.; Walker, A.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial biosphere models provide us with the means to simulate the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties. Going beyond direct observation and experimentation, models synthesize our current understanding of ecosystem processes and can give us insight on data needed to constrain model parameters. In previous work, we leveraged the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) to assess the contribution of different parameters to the uncertainty of the Ecosystem Demography model v2 (ED) model outputs across various North American biomes (Dietze et al., JGR-G, 2014). While this analysis identified key research priorities, the extent to which these priorities were model- and/or biome-specific was unclear. Furthermore, because the analysis only studied one model, we were unable to comment on the effect of variability in model structure to overall predictive uncertainty. Here, we expand this analysis to all biomes globally and a wide sample of models that vary in complexity: BioCro, CABLE, CLM, DALEC, ED2, FATES, G'DAY, JULES, LANDIS, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, PRELES, SDGVM, SIPNET, and TEM. Prior to performing uncertainty analyses, model parameter uncertainties were assessed by assimilating all available trait data from the combination of the BETYdb and TRY trait databases, using an updated multivariate version of PEcAn's Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Next, sensitivity analyses were performed for all models across a range of sites globally to assess sensitivities for a range of different outputs (GPP, ET, SH, Ra, NPP, Rh, NEE, LAI) at multiple time scales from the sub-annual to the decadal. Finally, parameter uncertainties and model sensitivities were combined to evaluate the fractional contribution of each parameter to the predictive uncertainty for a specific variable at a specific site and timescale. Facilitated by PEcAn's automated workflows, this analysis represents the broadest assessment of the sensitivities and uncertainties in terrestrial models to date, and provides a comprehensive roadmap for constraining model uncertainties through model development and data collection.

The Myths and Realities of Simulations in Performance Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thiagarajan, Sivasailam

1998-01-01

Examines misconceptions about simulations for performance technology concerning what they reflect, varieties, uses (instruction, awareness, performance assessment, team building, transfer, research, therapy), levels of fidelity, design approaches, formats (graphic models; card, race, and cyclical games; interactive fiction; production simulations;…

Emotions and Golf Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Alexander B.; Tenenbaum, Gershon; English, R. William

2006-01-01

A multiple case study investigation is reported in which emotions and performance were assessed within the probabilistic individual zone of optimal functioning (IZOF) model (Kamata, Tenenbaum, & Hanin, 2002) to develop idiosyncratic emotion-performance profiles. These profiles were incorporated into a psychological skills training (PST)…

Joint coverage probability in a simulation study on Continuous-Time Markov Chain parameter estimation.

PubMed

Benoit, Julia S; Chan, Wenyaw; Doody, Rachelle S

2015-01-01

Parameter dependency within data sets in simulation studies is common, especially in models such as Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMC). Additionally, the literature lacks a comprehensive examination of estimation performance for the likelihood-based general multi-state CTMC. Among studies attempting to assess the estimation, none have accounted for dependency among parameter estimates. The purpose of this research is twofold: 1) to develop a multivariate approach for assessing accuracy and precision for simulation studies 2) to add to the literature a comprehensive examination of the estimation of a general 3-state CTMC model. Simulation studies are conducted to analyze longitudinal data with a trinomial outcome using a CTMC with and without covariates. Measures of performance including bias, component-wise coverage probabilities, and joint coverage probabilities are calculated. An application is presented using Alzheimer's disease caregiver stress levels. Comparisons of joint and component-wise parameter estimates yield conflicting inferential results in simulations from models with and without covariates. In conclusion, caution should be taken when conducting simulation studies aiming to assess performance and choice of inference should properly reflect the purpose of the simulation.

Radiation Measurements Performed with Active Detectors Relevant for Human Space Exploration

PubMed Central

Narici, Livio; Berger, Thomas; Matthiä, Daniel; Reitz, Günther

2015-01-01

A reliable radiation risk assessment in space is a mandatory step for the development of countermeasures and long-duration mission planning in human spaceflight. Research in radiobiology provides information about possible risks linked to radiation. In addition, for a meaningful risk evaluation, the radiation exposure has to be assessed to a sufficient level of accuracy. Consequently, both the radiation models predicting the risks and the measurements used to validate such models must have an equivalent precision. Corresponding measurements can be performed both with passive and active devices. The former is easier to handle, cheaper, lighter, and smaller but they measure neither the time dependence of the radiation environment nor some of the details useful for a comprehensive radiation risk assessment. Active detectors provide most of these details and have been extensively used in the International Space Station. To easily access such an amount of data, a single point access is becoming essential. This review presents an ongoing work on the development of a tool that allows obtaining information about all relevant measurements performed with active detectors providing reliable inputs for radiation model validation. PMID:26697408

Radiation Measurements Performed with Active Detectors Relevant for Human Space Exploration.

PubMed

Narici, Livio; Berger, Thomas; Matthiä, Daniel; Reitz, Günther

2015-01-01

A reliable radiation risk assessment in space is a mandatory step for the development of countermeasures and long-duration mission planning in human spaceflight. Research in radiobiology provides information about possible risks linked to radiation. In addition, for a meaningful risk evaluation, the radiation exposure has to be assessed to a sufficient level of accuracy. Consequently, both the radiation models predicting the risks and the measurements used to validate such models must have an equivalent precision. Corresponding measurements can be performed both with passive and active devices. The former is easier to handle, cheaper, lighter, and smaller but they measure neither the time dependence of the radiation environment nor some of the details useful for a comprehensive radiation risk assessment. Active detectors provide most of these details and have been extensively used in the International Space Station. To easily access such an amount of data, a single point access is becoming essential. This review presents an ongoing work on the development of a tool that allows obtaining information about all relevant measurements performed with active detectors providing reliable inputs for radiation model validation.

Validation of Risk Assessment Models of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Medical Patients.

PubMed

Greene, M Todd; Spyropoulos, Alex C; Chopra, Vineet; Grant, Paul J; Kaatz, Scott; Bernstein, Steven J; Flanders, Scott A

2016-09-01

Patients hospitalized for acute medical illness are at increased risk for venous thromboembolism. Although risk assessment is recommended and several at-admission risk assessment models have been developed, these have not been adequately derived or externally validated. Therefore, an optimal approach to evaluate venous thromboembolism risk in medical patients is not known. We conducted an external validation study of existing venous thromboembolism risk assessment models using data collected on 63,548 hospitalized medical patients as part of the Michigan Hospital Medicine Safety (HMS) Consortium. For each patient, cumulative venous thromboembolism risk scores and risk categories were calculated. Cox regression models were used to quantify the association between venous thromboembolism events and assigned risk categories. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-index. Venous thromboembolism incidence in hospitalized medical patients is low (1%). Although existing risk assessment models demonstrate good calibration (hazard ratios for "at-risk" range 2.97-3.59), model discrimination is generally poor for all risk assessment models (C-index range 0.58-0.64). The performance of several existing risk assessment models for predicting venous thromboembolism among acutely ill, hospitalized medical patients at admission is limited. Given the low venous thromboembolism incidence in this nonsurgical patient population, careful consideration of how best to utilize existing venous thromboembolism risk assessment models is necessary, and further development and validation of novel venous thromboembolism risk assessment models for this patient population may be warranted. Published by Elsevier Inc.

MODIFIED FUNCTIONAL MOVEMENT SCREENING AS A PREDICTOR OF TACTICAL PERFORMANCE POTENTIAL IN RECREATIONALLY ACTIVE ADULTS.

PubMed

Glass, Stephen M; Ross, Scott E

2015-10-01

Failure to meet minimum performance standards is a leading cause of attrition from basic combat training. A standardized assessment such as the Functional Movement Screen™ (FMS™) could help identify movement behaviors relevant to physical performance in tactical occupations. Previous work has demonstrated only marginal association between FMS™ tests and performance outcomes, but adding a load challenge to this movement assessment may help highlight performance-limiting behaviors. The purposes of this investigation were to quantify the effect of load on FMS™ tests and determine the extent to which performance outcomes could be predicted using scores from both loaded and unloaded FMS™ conditions. Crossover Trial. Thirteen female and six male recreationally active college students (21 ± 1.37 years, 168 ± 9.8 cm, 66 ± 12.25 kg) completed the FMS™ under (1) a control condition (FMS™C), and (2) an 18.10kg weight vest condition (FMS™W). Balance was assessed using a force plate in double-legged stance and tactical physical performance was evaluated via completion times in a battery of field tests. For each condition, penalized regression was used to select models from the seven FMS™ component tests to predict balance and performance outcomes. Data were collected during a single session lasting approximately three hours per participant. For balance, significant predictors were identified from both conditions but primarily predicted poorer balance with increasing FMS™ scores. For tactical performance, models were retained almost exclusively from FMS™W and generally predicted better performance with higher item scores. The current results suggest that FMS™ screening with an external load could help predict performance relevant to tactical occupations. Sports medicine and fitness professionals interested in performance outcomes may consider assessing movement behaviors under a load. 3.

Effects of regionalization decisions on an O/E index for the US national assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We examined the effects of different regionalization schemes on the performance of River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS)-type predictive models in assessing the biological conditions of streams of the US for the National Wadeable Streams Assessment (WS...

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

Impact and Penetration Simulations for Composite Wing-like Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F.

1998-01-01

The goal of this research project was to develop methodologies for the analysis of wing-like structures subjected to impact loadings. Low-speed impact causing either no damage or only minimal damage and high-speed impact causing severe laminate damage and possible penetration of the structure were to be considered during this research effort. To address this goal, an assessment of current analytical tools for impact analysis was performed. Assessment of the analytical tools for impact and penetration simulations with regard to accuracy, modeling, and damage modeling was considered as well as robustness, efficient, and usage in a wing design environment. Following a qualitative assessment, selected quantitative evaluations will be performed using the leading simulation tools. Based on this assessment, future research thrusts for impact and penetration simulation of composite wing-like structures were identified.

Skill Assessment in Ocean Biological Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Robinson, Allan R.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Schlitzer, Reiner; Thompson, Keith R.; Doney, Scott C.

2008-01-01

There is growing recognition that rigorous skill assessment is required to understand the ability of ocean biological models to represent ocean processes and distributions. Statistical analysis of model results with observations represents the most quantitative form of skill assessment, and this principle serves as well for data assimilation models. However, skill assessment for data assimilation requires special consideration. This is because there are three sets of information in the free-run model, data, and the assimilation model, which uses Data assimilation information from both the flee-run model and the data. Intercom parison of results among the three sets of information is important and useful for assessment, but is not conclusive since the three information sets are intertwined. An independent data set is necessary for an objective determination. Other useful measures of ocean biological data assimilation assessment include responses of unassimilated variables to the data assimilation, performance outside the prescribed region/time of interest, forecasting, and trend analysis. Examples of each approach from the literature are provided. A comprehensive list of ocean biological data assimilation and their applications of skill assessment, in both ecosystem/biogeochemical and fisheries efforts, is summarized.

An alternative assessment of second-order closure models in turbulent shear flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Speziale, Charles G.; Gatski, Thomas B.

1994-01-01

The performance of three recently proposed second-order closure models is tested in benchmark turbulent shear flows. Both homogeneous shear flow and the log-layer of an equilibrium turbulent boundary layer are considered for this purpose. An objective analysis of the results leads to an assessment of these models that stands in contrast to that recently published by other authors. A variety of pitfalls in the formulation and testing of second-order closure models are uncovered by this analysis.

The Relationship of Time Orientation with Perceived Academic Performance and Preparation for Assessment in Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowles, Terry

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to operationalise a model of time orientation and investigate the variability of its factors based on preparation for assessment and perceived academic performance. Responses from 113 male adolescents (mean age = 16.46 years) and 115 female adolescents (mean age = 16.42 years) to items operationalising an expanded…

An assessment of phytoplankton primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean from satellite ocean color/in situ chlorophyll‐a based models

PubMed Central

Matrai, Patricia A.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Saba, Vincent S.; Antoine, David; Ardyna, Mathieu; Asanuma, Ichio; Babin, Marcel; Bélanger, Simon; Benoît‐Gagné, Maxime; Devred, Emmanuel; Fernández‐Méndez, Mar; Gentili, Bernard; Hirawake, Toru; Kang, Sung‐Ho; Kameda, Takahiko; Katlein, Christian; Lee, Sang H.; Lee, Zhongping; Mélin, Frédéric; Scardi, Michele; Smyth, Tim J.; Tang, Shilin; Turpie, Kevin R.; Waters, Kirk J.; Westberry, Toby K.

2015-01-01

Abstract We investigated 32 net primary productivity (NPP) models by assessing skills to reproduce integrated NPP in the Arctic Ocean. The models were provided with two sources each of surface chlorophyll‐a concentration (chlorophyll), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed‐layer depth (MLD). The models were most sensitive to uncertainties in surface chlorophyll, generally performing better with in situ chlorophyll than with satellite‐derived values. They were much less sensitive to uncertainties in PAR, SST, and MLD, possibly due to relatively narrow ranges of input data and/or relatively little difference between input data sources. Regardless of type or complexity, most of the models were not able to fully reproduce the variability of in situ NPP, whereas some of them exhibited almost no bias (i.e., reproduced the mean of in situ NPP). The models performed relatively well in low‐productivity seasons as well as in sea ice‐covered/deep‐water regions. Depth‐resolved models correlated more with in situ NPP than other model types, but had a greater tendency to overestimate mean NPP whereas absorption‐based models exhibited the lowest bias associated with weaker correlation. The models performed better when a subsurface chlorophyll‐a maximum (SCM) was absent. As a group, the models overestimated mean NPP, however this was partly offset by some models underestimating NPP when a SCM was present. Our study suggests that NPP models need to be carefully tuned for the Arctic Ocean because most of the models performing relatively well were those that used Arctic‐relevant parameters. PMID:27668139

Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

Assessing the Effectiveness of a Hybrid-Flipped Model of Learning on Fluid Mechanics Instruction: Overall Course Performance, Homework, and Far- and Near-Transfer of Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, David J.; Saito, Laurel; Markee, Nancy; Herzog, Serge

2017-01-01

To examine the impact of a hybrid-flipped model utilising active learning techniques, the researchers inverted one section of an undergraduate fluid mechanics course, reduced seat time, and engaged in active learning sessions in the classroom. We compared this model to the traditional section on four performance measures. We employed a propensity…

GTM-Based QSAR Models and Their Applicability Domains.

PubMed

Gaspar, H A; Baskin, I I; Marcou, G; Horvath, D; Varnek, A

2015-06-01

In this paper we demonstrate that Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM), a machine learning method traditionally used for data visualisation, can be efficiently applied to QSAR modelling using probability distribution functions (PDF) computed in the latent 2-dimensional space. Several different scenarios of the activity assessment were considered: (i) the "activity landscape" approach based on direct use of PDF, (ii) QSAR models involving GTM-generated on descriptors derived from PDF, and, (iii) the k-Nearest Neighbours approach in 2D latent space. Benchmarking calculations were performed on five different datasets: stability constants of metal cations Ca(2+) , Gd(3+) and Lu(3+) complexes with organic ligands in water, aqueous solubility and activity of thrombin inhibitors. It has been shown that the performance of GTM-based regression models is similar to that obtained with some popular machine-learning methods (random forest, k-NN, M5P regression tree and PLS) and ISIDA fragment descriptors. By comparing GTM activity landscapes built both on predicted and experimental activities, we may visually assess the model's performance and identify the areas in the chemical space corresponding to reliable predictions. The applicability domain used in this work is based on data likelihood. Its application has significantly improved the model performances for 4 out of 5 datasets. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Assessment of simulated water balance from Noah, Noah-MP, CLM, and VIC over CONUS using the NLDAS test bed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Xitian; Yang, Zong-Liang; Xia, Youlong

2014-12-27

This study assesses the hydrologic performance of four land surface models (LSMs) for the conterminous United States using the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) test bed. The four LSMs are the baseline community Noah LSM (Noah, version 2.8), the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC, version 4.0.5) model, the substantially augmented Noah LSM with multiparameterization options (hence Noah-MP), and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). All four models are driven by the same NLDAS-2 atmospheric forcing. Modeled terrestrial water storage (TWS), streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture are compared with each other and evaluated against the identical observations. Relativemore » to Noah, the other three models offer significant improvements in simulating TWS and streamflow and moderate improvements in simulating ET and soil moisture. Noah-MP provides the best performance in simulating soil moisture and is among the best in simulating TWS, CLM4 shows the best performance in simulating ET, and VIC ranks the highest in performing the streamflow simulations. Despite these improvements, CLM4, Noah-MP, and VIC exhibit deficiencies, such as the low variability of soil moisture in CLM4, the fast growth of spring ET in Noah-MP, and the constant overestimation of ET in VIC.« less

Including operational data in QMRA model: development and impact of model inputs.

PubMed

Jaidi, Kenza; Barbeau, Benoit; Carrière, Annie; Desjardins, Raymond; Prévost, Michèle

2009-03-01

A Monte Carlo model, based on the Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis approach (QMRA), has been developed to assess the relative risks of infection associated with the presence of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in drinking water. The impact of various approaches for modelling the initial parameters of the model on the final risk assessments is evaluated. The Monte Carlo simulations that we performed showed that the occurrence of parasites in raw water was best described by a mixed distribution: log-Normal for concentrations > detection limit (DL), and a uniform distribution for concentrations < DL. The selection of process performance distributions for modelling the performance of treatment (filtration and ozonation) influences the estimated risks significantly. The mean annual risks for conventional treatment are: 1.97E-03 (removal credit adjusted by log parasite = log spores), 1.58E-05 (log parasite = 1.7 x log spores) or 9.33E-03 (regulatory credits based on the turbidity measurement in filtered water). Using full scale validated SCADA data, the simplified calculation of CT performed at the plant was shown to largely underestimate the risk relative to a more detailed CT calculation, which takes into consideration the downtime and system failure events identified at the plant (1.46E-03 vs. 3.93E-02 for the mean risk).

Active imaging system performance model for target acquisition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinola, Richard L.; Teaney, Brian; Nguyen, Quang; Jacobs, Eddie L.; Halford, Carl E.; Tofsted, David H.

2007-04-01

The U.S. Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision & Electronic Sensors Directorate has developed a laser-range-gated imaging system performance model for the detection, recognition, and identification of vehicle targets. The model is based on the established US Army RDECOM CERDEC NVESD sensor performance models of the human system response through an imaging system. The Java-based model, called NVLRG, accounts for the effect of active illumination, atmospheric attenuation, and turbulence effects relevant to LRG imagers, such as speckle and scintillation, and for the critical sensor and display components. This model can be used to assess the performance of recently proposed active SWIR systems through various trade studies. This paper will describe the NVLRG model in detail, discuss the validation of recent model components, present initial trade study results, and outline plans to validate and calibrate the end-to-end model with field data through human perception testing.

The effects of teacher anxiety and modeling on the acquisition of a science teaching skill and concomitant student performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koran, John J., Jr.; Koran, Mary Lou

In a study designed to explore the effects of teacher anxiety and modeling on acquisition of a science teaching skill and concomitant student performance, 69 preservice secondary teachers and 295 eighth grade students were randomly assigned to microteaching sessions. Prior to microteaching, teachers were given an anxiety test, then randomly assigned to one of three treatments; a transcript model, a protocol model, or a control condition. Subsequently both teacher and student performance was assessed using written and behavioral measures. Analysis of variance indicated that subjects in the two modeling treatments significantly exceeded performance of control group subjects on all measures of the dependent variable, with the protocol model being generally superior to the transcript model. The differential effects of the modeling treatments were further reflected in student performance. Regression analysis of aptitude-treatment interactions indicated that teacher anxiety scores interacted significantly with instructional treatments, with high anxiety teachers performing best in the protocol modeling treatment. Again, this interaction was reflected in student performance, where students taught by highly anxious teachers performed significantly better when their teachers had received the protocol model. These results were discussed in terms of teacher concerns and a memory model of the effects of anxiety on performance.

Environmental assessment of PSS, feedback on 2 years of experimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allais, Romain; Gobert, Julie

2018-05-01

This communication details the sustainability assessment of the partial transition of business model from selling products to product renting for small household equipment (SHE). Perceived by the French SHE manufacturer as a strategic opportunity to meet customers' expectations and environmental regulation, 2-years experimentation was performed on a specific territory with the support of a network of new competencies (B-to-B-to-C market). Researchers were mandated for the sustainability assessment of such a transition but this communication focuses on the environmental performance of the experimentation. The results of the comparative LCA are presented and the main environmental impacts linked to this business model transition are specified and discussed. Then, different eco-design scenarios are explored and recommendations for this specific case are proposed.

ON-LINE CALCULATOR: FORWARD CALCULATION JOHNSON ETTINGER MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

On-Site was developed to provide modelers and model reviewers with prepackaged tools ("calculators") for performing site assessment calculations. The philosophy behind OnSite is that the convenience of the prepackaged calculators helps provide consistency for simple calculations,...

ON-LINE CALCULATOR: JOHNSON ETTINGER VAPOR INTRUSION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

On-Site was developed to provide modelers and model reviewers with prepackaged tools ("calculators") for performing site assessment calculations. The philosophy behind OnSite is that the convenience of the prepackaged calculators helps provide consistency for simple calculations,...

A generic simulation model to assess the performance of sterilization services in health establishments.

PubMed

Di Mascolo, Maria; Gouin, Alexia

2013-03-01

The work presented here is with a view to improving performance of sterilization services in hospitals. We carried out a survey in a large number of health establishments in the Rhône-Alpes region in France. Based on the results of this survey and a detailed study of a specific service, we have built a generic model. The generic nature of the model relies on a common structure with a high level of detail. This model can be used to improve the performance of a specific sterilization service and/or to dimension its resources. It can also serve for quantitative comparison of performance indicators of various sterilization services.

Validation of International Space Station Electrical Performance Model via On-orbit Telemetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jannette, Anthony G.; Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; McKissock, David B.; Fincannon, James; Kerslake, Thomas W.; Rodriguez, Carlos D.

2002-01-01

The first U.S. power module on International Space Station (ISS) was activated in December 2000. Comprised of solar arrays, nickel-hydrogen (NiH2) batteries, and a direct current power management and distribution (PMAD) system, the electric power system (EPS) supplies power to housekeeping and user electrical loads. Modeling EPS performance is needed for several reasons, but primarily to assess near-term planned and off-nominal operations and because the EPS configuration changes over the life of the ISS. The System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) computer code is used to assess the ISS EPS performance. This paper describes the process of validating the SPACE EPS model via ISS on-orbit telemetry. To accomplish this goal, telemetry was first used to correct assumptions and component models in SPACE. Then on-orbit data was directly input to SPACE to facilitate comparing model predictions to telemetry. It will be shown that SPACE accurately predicts on-orbit component and system performance. For example, battery state-of-charge was predicted to within 0.6 percentage points over a 0 to 100 percent scale and solar array current was predicted to within a root mean square (RMS) error of 5.1 Amps out of a typical maximum of 220 Amps. First, SPACE model predictions are compared to telemetry for the ISS EPS components: solar arrays, NiH2 batteries, and the PMAD system. Second, SPACE predictions for the overall performance of the ISS EPS are compared to telemetry and again demonstrate model accuracy.

The Australian Medical Schools Assessment Collaboration: benchmarking the preclinical performance of medical students.

PubMed

O'Mara, Deborah A; Canny, Ben J; Rothnie, Imogene P; Wilson, Ian G; Barnard, John; Davies, Llewelyn

2015-02-02

To report the level of participation of medical schools in the Australian Medical Schools Assessment Collaboration (AMSAC); and to measure differences in student performance related to medical school characteristics and implementation methods. Retrospective analysis of data using the Rasch statistical model to correct for missing data and variability in item difficulty. Linear model analysis of variance was used to assess differences in student performance. 6401 preclinical students from 13 medical schools that participated in AMSAC from 2011 to 2013. Rasch estimates of preclinical basic and clinical science knowledge. Representation of Australian medical schools and students in AMSAC more than doubled between 2009 and 2013. In 2013 it included 12 of 19 medical schools and 68% of medical students. Graduate-entry students scored higher than students entering straight from school. Students at large schools scored higher than students at small schools. Although the significance level was high (P < 0.001), the main effect sizes were small (4.5% and 2.3%, respectively). The time allowed per multiple choice question was not significantly associated with student performance. The effect on performance of multiple assessments compared with the test items as part of a single end-of-year examination was negligible. The variables investigated explain only 12% of the total variation in student performance. An increasing number of medical schools are participating in AMSAC to monitor student performance in preclinical sciences against an external benchmark. Medical school characteristics account for only a small part of overall variation in student performance. Student performance was not affected by the different methods of administering test items.

An overview of the model integration process: From pre-integration assessment to testing

EPA Science Inventory

Integration of models requires linking models which can be developed using different tools, methodologies, and assumptions. We performed a literature review with the aim of improving our understanding of model integration process, and also presenting better strategies for buildin...

Assessing competencies: an evaluation of ASTD's Certified Professional in Learning and Performance (CPLP) designation.

PubMed

Kwon, Seolim; Wadholm, Robert R; Carmody, Laurie E

2014-06-01

The American Society of Training and Development's (ASTD) Certified Professional in Learning and Performance (CPLP) program is purported to be based on the ASTD's competency model, a model which outlines foundational competencies, roles, and areas of expertise in the field of training and performance improvement. This study seeks to uncover the relationship between the competency model and the CPLP knowledge exam questions and work product submissions (two of the major instruments used to test for competency of CPLP applicants). A mixed qualitative-quantitative approach is used to identify themes, quantify relationships, and assess questions and guidelines. Multiple raters independently analyzed the data and identified key themes, and Fleiss' Kappa coefficient was used in measuring inter-rater agreement. The study concludes that several discrepancies exist between the competency model and the knowledge exam and work product submission guidelines. Recommendations are given for possible improvement of the CPLP program. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metrological analysis of a virtual flowmeter-based transducer for cryogenic helium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arpaia, P., E-mail: pasquale.arpaia@unina.it; Technology Department, European Organization for Nuclear Research; Girone, M., E-mail: mario.girone@cern.ch

2015-12-15

The metrological performance of a virtual flowmeter-based transducer for monitoring helium under cryogenic conditions is assessed. At this aim, an uncertainty model of the transducer, mainly based on a valve model, exploiting finite-element approach, and a virtual flowmeter model, based on the Sereg-Schlumberger method, are presented. The models are validated experimentally on a case study for helium monitoring in cryogenic systems at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). The impact of uncertainty sources on the transducer metrological performance is assessed by a sensitivity analysis, based on statistical experiment design and analysis of variance. In this way, the uncertainty sourcesmore » most influencing metrological performance of the transducer are singled out over the input range as a whole, at varying operating and setting conditions. This analysis turns out to be important for CERN cryogenics operation because the metrological design of the transducer is validated, and its components and working conditions with critical specifications for future improvements are identified.« less

Testing antecedents to sales performance in postapartheid era: a field study.

PubMed

Barbuto, John E; Barbuto, Liezel; De La Rey, Piet; Boshoff, Adre B; Xu, Ye

2006-10-01

The predictors of objectively measured sales performance were assessed with 245 sales representatives from a large South African life insurance company. Sales representatives completed measures of their locus of control, entrepreneurial attitudes, biographical history, and performance was assessed from company records of sales, net commissions earned, and lapse ratios. The nature of employment contract, job status, and race explained significant differences in performance outcomes. The predictive nature of locus of control and entrepreneurial attitudes for performance outcomes was tested using structural equation modeling procedures, with limited validity. The implications for research and practice are also discussed.

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

PubMed

Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

2015-08-28

There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.

Analysis of transient fission gas behaviour in oxide fuel using BISON and TRANSURANUS

DOE PAGES

Barani, T.; Bruschi, E.; Pizzocri, D.; ...

2017-01-03

The modelling of fission gas behaviour is a crucial aspect of nuclear fuel analysis in view of the related effects on the thermo-mechanical performance of the fuel rod, which can be particularly significant during transients. Experimental observations indicate that substantial fission gas release (FGR) can occur on a small time scale during transients (burst release). To accurately reproduce the rapid kinetics of burst release in fuel performance calculations, a model that accounts for non-diffusional mechanisms such as fuel micro-cracking is needed. In this work, we present and assess a model for transient fission gas behaviour in oxide fuel, which ismore » applied as an extension of diffusion-based models to allow for the burst release effect. The concept and governing equations of the model are presented, and the effect of the newly introduced parameters is evaluated through an analytic sensitivity analysis. Then, the model is assessed for application to integral fuel rod analysis. The approach that we take for model assessment involves implementation in two structurally different fuel performance codes, namely, BISON (multi-dimensional finite element code) and TRANSURANUS (1.5D semi-analytic code). The model is validated against 19 Light Water Reactor fuel rod irradiation experiments from the OECD/NEA IFPE (International Fuel Performance Experiments) database, all of which are simulated with both codes. The results point out an improvement in both the qualitative representation of the FGR kinetics and the quantitative predictions of integral fuel rod FGR, relative to the canonical, purely diffusion-based models, with both codes. The overall quantitative improvement of the FGR predictions in the two codes is comparable. Furthermore, calculated radial profiles of xenon concentration are investigated and compared to experimental data, demonstrating the representation of the underlying mechanisms of burst release by the new model.« less

Assessment of liquefaction-induced hazards using Bayesian networks based on standard penetration test data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Xiao-Wei; Bai, Xu; Hu, Ji-Lei; Qiu, Jiang-Nan

2018-05-01

Liquefaction-induced hazards such as sand boils, ground cracks, settlement, and lateral spreading are responsible for considerable damage to engineering structures during major earthquakes. Presently, there is no effective empirical approach that can assess different liquefaction-induced hazards in one model. This is because of the uncertainties and complexity of the factors related to seismic liquefaction and liquefaction-induced hazards. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to integrate multiple factors related to seismic liquefaction, sand boils, ground cracks, settlement, and lateral spreading into a model based on standard penetration test data. The constructed BN model can assess four different liquefaction-induced hazards together. In a case study, the BN method outperforms an artificial neural network and Ishihara and Yoshimine's simplified method in terms of accuracy, Brier score, recall, precision, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). This demonstrates that the BN method is a good alternative tool for the risk assessment of liquefaction-induced hazards. Furthermore, the performance of the BN model in estimating liquefaction-induced hazards in Japan's 2011 Tōhoku earthquake confirms its correctness and reliability compared with the liquefaction potential index approach. The proposed BN model can also predict whether the soil becomes liquefied after an earthquake and can deduce the chain reaction process of liquefaction-induced hazards and perform backward reasoning. The assessment results from the proposed model provide informative guidelines for decision-makers to detect the damage state of a field following liquefaction.

The impact of primary care reform on health system performance in Canada: a systematic review.

PubMed

Carter, Renee; Riverin, Bruno; Levesque, Jean-Frédéric; Gariepy, Geneviève; Quesnel-Vallée, Amélie

2016-07-30

We aimed to synthesize the evidence of a causal effect and draw inferences about whether Canadian primary care reforms improved health system performance based on measures of health service utilization, processes of care, and physician productivity. We searched the Embase, PubMed and Web of Science databases for records from 2000 to September 2015. We based our risk of bias assessment on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation guidelines. Full-text studies were synthesized and organized according to the three outcome categories: health service utilization, processes of care, and physician costs and productivity. We found moderate quality evidence that team-based models of care led to reductions in emergency department use, but the evidence was mixed for hospital admissions. We also found low quality evidence that team-based models, blended capitation models and pay-for-performance incentives led to small and sometimes non-significant improvements in processes of care. Studies examining new payment models on physician costs and productivity were of high methodological quality and provided a coherent body of evidence assessing enhanced fee-for-service and blended capitation payment models. A small number of studies suggested that team-based models contributed to reductions in emergency department use in Quebec and Alberta. Regarding processes of diabetes care, studies found higher rates of testing for blood glucose levels, retinopathy and cholesterol in Alberta's team-based primary care model and in practices eligible for pay-for-performance incentives in Ontario. However pay-for-performance in Ontario was found to have null to moderate effects on other prevention and screening activities. Although blended capitation payment in Ontario contributed to decreases in the number of services delivered and patients seen per day, the number of enrolled patients and number of days worked in a year was similar to that of enhanced fee-for-service practices.

Cooperation, Technology, and Performance: A Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cavanagh, Thomas; Dickenson, Sabrina; Brandt, Suzanne

1999-01-01

Describes the CTP (Cooperation, Technology, and Performance) model and explains how it is used by the Department of Veterans Affairs-Veteran's Benefit Administration (VBA) for training. Discusses task analysis; computer-based training; cooperative-based learning environments; technology-based learning; performance-assessment methods; courseware…

Flood loss model transfer: on the value of additional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Lüdtke, Stefan; Vogel, Kristin; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

The transfer of models across geographical regions and flood events is a key challenge in flood loss estimation. Variations in local characteristics and continuous system changes require regional adjustments and continuous updating with current evidence. However, acquiring data on damage influencing factors is expensive and therefore assessing the value of additional data in terms of model reliability and performance improvement is of high relevance. The present study utilizes empirical flood loss data on direct damage to residential buildings available from computer aided telephone interviews that were carried out after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2013 mainly in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. Flood loss model performance is assessed for incrementally increased numbers of loss data which are differentiated according to region and flood event. Two flood loss modeling approaches are considered: (i) a multi-variable flood loss model approach using Random Forests and (ii) a uni-variable stage damage function. Both model approaches are embedded in a bootstrapping process which allows evaluating the uncertainty of model predictions. Predictive performance of both models is evaluated with regard to mean bias, mean absolute and mean squared errors, as well as hit rate and sharpness. Mean bias and mean absolute error give information about the accuracy of model predictions; mean squared error and sharpness about precision and hit rate is an indicator for model reliability. The results of incremental, regional and temporal updating demonstrate the usefulness of additional data to improve model predictive performance and increase model reliability, particularly in a spatial-temporal transfer setting.

A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing injury.

Using satellite observations in performance evaluation for regulatory air quality modeling: Comparison with ground-level measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odman, M. T.; Hu, Y.; Russell, A.; Chai, T.; Lee, P.; Shankar, U.; Boylan, J.

2012-12-01

Regulatory air quality modeling, such as State Implementation Plan (SIP) modeling, requires that model performance meets recommended criteria in the base-year simulations using period-specific, estimated emissions. The goal of the performance evaluation is to assure that the base-year modeling accurately captures the observed chemical reality of the lower troposphere. Any significant deficiencies found in the performance evaluation must be corrected before any base-case (with typical emissions) and future-year modeling is conducted. Corrections are usually made to model inputs such as emission-rate estimates or meteorology and/or to the air quality model itself, in modules that describe specific processes. Use of ground-level measurements that follow approved protocols is recommended for evaluating model performance. However, ground-level monitoring networks are spatially sparse, especially for particulate matter. Satellite retrievals of atmospheric chemical properties such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) provide spatial coverage that can compensate for the sparseness of ground-level measurements. Satellite retrievals can also help diagnose potential model or data problems in the upper troposphere. It is possible to achieve good model performance near the ground, but have, for example, erroneous sources or sinks in the upper troposphere that may result in misleading and unrealistic responses to emission reductions. Despite these advantages, satellite retrievals are rarely used in model performance evaluation, especially for regulatory modeling purposes, due to the high uncertainty in retrievals associated with various contaminations, for example by clouds. In this study, 2007 was selected as the base year for SIP modeling in the southeastern U.S. Performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, at a 12-km horizontal resolution, for this annual simulation is evaluated using both recommended ground-level measurements and non-traditional satellite retrievals. Evaluation results are assessed against recommended criteria and peer studies in the literature. Further analysis is conducted, based upon these assessments, to discover likely errors in model inputs and potential deficiencies in the model itself. Correlations as well as differences in input errors and model deficiencies revealed by ground-level measurements versus satellite observations are discussed. Additionally, sensitivity analyses are employed to investigate errors in emission-rate estimates using either ground-level measurements or satellite retrievals, and the results are compared against each other considering observational uncertainties. Recommendations are made for how to effectively utilize satellite retrievals in regulatory air quality modeling.

Assessing Change in Latent Skills across Time with Longitudinal Cognitive Diagnosis Modeling: An Evaluation of Model Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaya, Yasemin; Leite, Walter L.

2017-01-01

Cognitive diagnosis models are diagnostic models used to classify respondents into homogenous groups based on multiple categorical latent variables representing the measured cognitive attributes. This study aims to present longitudinal models for cognitive diagnosis modeling, which can be applied to repeated measurements in order to monitor…

Land use regression models to assess air pollution exposure in Mexico City using finer spatial and temporal input parameters.

PubMed

Son, Yeongkwon; Osornio-Vargas, Álvaro R; O'Neill, Marie S; Hystad, Perry; Texcalac-Sangrador, José L; Ohman-Strickland, Pamela; Meng, Qingyu; Schwander, Stephan

2018-05-17

The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is one of the largest and most populated urban environments in the world and experiences high air pollution levels. To develop models that estimate pollutant concentrations at fine spatiotemporal scales and provide improved air pollution exposure assessments for health studies in Mexico City. We developed finer spatiotemporal land use regression (LUR) models for PM 2.5 , PM 10 , O 3 , NO 2 , CO and SO 2 using mixed effect models with the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). Hourly traffic density was included as a temporal variable besides meteorological and holiday variables. Models of hourly, daily, monthly, 6-monthly and annual averages were developed and evaluated using traditional and novel indices. The developed spatiotemporal LUR models yielded predicted concentrations with good spatial and temporal agreements with measured pollutant levels except for the hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 . Most of the LUR models met performance goals based on the standardized indices. LUR models with temporal scales greater than one hour were successfully developed using mixed effect models with LASSO and showed superior model performance compared to earlier LUR models, especially for time scales of a day or longer. The newly developed LUR models will be further refined with ongoing Mexico City air pollution sampling campaigns to improve personal exposure assessments. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Enhancing Self-Efficacy and Performance: An Experimental Comparison of Psychological Techniques.

PubMed

Wright, Bradley James; O'Halloran, Paul Daniel; Stukas, Arthur Anthony

2016-01-01

We assessed how 6 psychological performance enhancement techniques (PETs) differentially improved self-efficacy (SE) and skill performance. We also assessed whether vicarious experiences and verbal persuasion as posited sources of SE (Bandura, 1982 ) were supported and, further, if the effects of the 6 PETs remained after controlling for achievement motivation traits and self-esteem. A within-subject design assessed each individual across 2 trials for 3 disparate PETs. A between-groups design assessed differences between PETs paired against each other for 3 similar novel tasks. Participants (N = 96) performed 2 trials of 10 attempts at each of the tasks (kick, throw, golf putt) in a counterbalanced sequence using their nondominant limb. Participants completed the Sport Orientation Questionnaire, Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, and General Self-Efficacy Scale and were randomly allocated to either the modeling or imagery, goal-setting or instructional self-statement, or knowledge-of-results or motivational feedback conditions aligned with each task. An instructional self-statement improved performance better than imagery, modeling, goal setting, and motivational and knowledge-of-results augmented feedback. Motivational auditory feedback most improved SE. Increased SE change scores were related to increased performance difference scores on all tasks after controlling for age, sex, achievement motivation, and self-esteem. Some sources of SE may be more influential than others on both SE and performance improvements. We provide partial support for the sources of SE proposed by Bandura's social-cognitive theory with verbal persuasion but not vicarious experiences improving SE.

A Bayesian Network Approach to Modeling Learning Progressions and Task Performance. CRESST Report 776

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

West, Patti; Rutstein, Daisy Wise; Mislevy, Robert J.; Liu, Junhui; Choi, Younyoung; Levy, Roy; Crawford, Aaron; DiCerbo, Kristen E.; Chappel, Kristina; Behrens, John T.

2010-01-01

A major issue in the study of learning progressions (LPs) is linking student performance on assessment tasks to the progressions. This report describes the challenges faced in making this linkage using Bayesian networks to model LPs in the field of computer networking. The ideas are illustrated with exemplar Bayesian networks built on Cisco…

A Unified Model of Performance for Predicting the Effects of Sleep and Caffeine.

PubMed

Ramakrishnan, Sridhar; Wesensten, Nancy J; Kamimori, Gary H; Moon, James E; Balkin, Thomas J; Reifman, Jaques

2016-10-01

Existing mathematical models of neurobehavioral performance cannot predict the beneficial effects of caffeine across the spectrum of sleep loss conditions, limiting their practical utility. Here, we closed this research gap by integrating a model of caffeine effects with the recently validated unified model of performance (UMP) into a single, unified modeling framework. We then assessed the accuracy of this new UMP in predicting performance across multiple studies. We hypothesized that the pharmacodynamics of caffeine vary similarly during both wakefulness and sleep, and that caffeine has a multiplicative effect on performance. Accordingly, to represent the effects of caffeine in the UMP, we multiplied a dose-dependent caffeine factor (which accounts for the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of caffeine) to the performance estimated in the absence of caffeine. We assessed the UMP predictions in 14 distinct laboratory- and field-study conditions, including 7 different sleep-loss schedules (from 5 h of sleep per night to continuous sleep loss for 85 h) and 6 different caffeine doses (from placebo to repeated 200 mg doses to a single dose of 600 mg). The UMP accurately predicted group-average psychomotor vigilance task performance data across the different sleep loss and caffeine conditions (6% < error < 27%), yielding greater accuracy for mild and moderate sleep loss conditions than for more severe cases. Overall, accounting for the effects of caffeine resulted in improved predictions (after caffeine consumption) by up to 70%. The UMP provides the first comprehensive tool for accurate selection of combinations of sleep schedules and caffeine countermeasure strategies to optimize neurobehavioral performance. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Transfer of skills on LapSim virtual reality laparoscopic simulator into the operating room in urology.

PubMed

Alwaal, Amjad; Al-Qaoud, Talal M; Haddad, Richard L; Alzahrani, Tarek M; Delisle, Josee; Anidjar, Maurice

2015-01-01

Assessing the predictive validity of the LapSim simulator within a urology residency program. Twelve urology residents at McGill University were enrolled in the study between June 2008 and December 2011. The residents had weekly training on the LapSim that consisted of 3 tasks (cutting, clip-applying, and lifting and grasping). They underwent monthly assessment of their LapSim performance using total time, tissue damage and path length among other parameters as surrogates for their economy of movement and respect for tissue. The last residents' LapSim performance was compared with their first performance of radical nephrectomy on anesthetized porcine models in their 4(th) year of training. Two independent urologic surgeons rated the resident performance on the porcine models, and kappa test with standardized weight function was used to assess for inter-observer bias. Nonparametric spearman correlation test was used to compare each rater's cumulative score with the cumulative score obtained on the porcine models in order to test the predictive validity of the LapSim simulator. The kappa results demonstrated acceptable agreement between the two observers among all domains of the rating scale of performance except for confidence of movement and efficiency. In addition, poor predictive validity of the LapSim simulator was demonstrated. Predictive validity was not demonstrated for the LapSim simulator in the context of a urology residency training program.

Residents' response to bleeding during a simulated robotic surgery task.

PubMed

Walker, Jessica L; Nathwani, Jay N; Mohamadipanah, Hossein; Laufer, Shlomi; Jocewicz, Frank F; Gwillim, Eran; Pugh, Carla M

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to assess performance measurement validity of our newly developed robotic surgery task trainer. We hypothesized that residents would exhibit wide variations in their intercohort performance as well as a measurable difference compared to surgeons in fellowship training. Our laboratory synthesized a model of a pelvic tumor that simulates unexpected bleeding. Surgical residents and fellows of varying specialties completed a demographic survey and were allowed 20 minutes to resect the tumor using the da Vinci robot and achieve hemostasis. At a standardized event in the simulation, venous bleeding began, and participants attempted hemostasis using suture ligation. A motion tracking system, using electromagnetic sensors, recorded participants' hand movements. A postparticipation Likert scale survey evaluated participants' assessment of the model's realism and usefulness. Three of the seven residents (postgraduate year 2-5), and the fellow successfully resected the tumor in the allotted time. Residents showed high variability in performance and blood loss (125-700 mL) both within their cohort and compared to the fellow (150 mL blood). All participants rated the model as having high realism and utility for trainees. The results support that our bleeding pelvic tumor simulator has the ability to discriminate resident performance in robotic surgery. The combination of motion, decision-making, and blood loss metrics offers a multilevel performance assessment, analyzing both technical and decision-making abilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment Methodology for Hazardous Waste Management (1998)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A methodology is described for systematically assessing and comparing the risks to human health and the environment of hazardous waste management alternatives. The methodology selects and links appropriate models and techniques for performing the process.

Neuropsychological predictors of performance-based measures of functional capacity and social skills in individuals with severe mental illness.

PubMed

Mahmood, Zanjbeel; Burton, Cynthia Z; Vella, Lea; Twamley, Elizabeth W

2018-04-13

Neuropsychological abilities may underlie successful performance of everyday functioning and social skills. We aimed to determine the strongest neuropsychological predictors of performance-based functional capacity and social skills performance across the spectrum of severe mental illness (SMI). Unemployed outpatients with SMI (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or major depression; n = 151) were administered neuropsychological (expanded MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery), functional capacity (UCSD Performance-Based Skills Assessment-Brief; UPSA-B), and social skills (Social Skills Performance Assessment; SSPA) assessments. Bivariate correlations between neuropsychological performance and UPSA-B and SSPA total scores showed that most neuropsychological tests were significantly associated with each performance-based measure. Forward entry stepwise regression analyses were conducted entering education, diagnosis, symptom severity, and neuropsychological performance as predictors of functional capacity and social skills. Diagnosis, working memory, sustained attention, and category and letter fluency emerged as significant predictors of functional capacity, in a model that explained 43% of the variance. Negative symptoms, sustained attention, and letter fluency were significant predictors of social skill performance, in a model explaining 35% of the variance. Functional capacity is positively associated with neuropsychological functioning, but diagnosis remains strongly influential, with mood disorder participants outperforming those with psychosis. Social skill performance appears to be positively associated with sustained attention and verbal fluency regardless of diagnosis; however, negative symptom severity strongly predicts social skills performance. Improving neuropsychological functioning may improve psychosocial functioning in people with SMI. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Wind tunnel performance results of an aeroelastically scaled 2/9 model of the PTA flight test prop-fan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stefko, George L.; Rose, Gayle E.; Podboy, Gary G.

1987-01-01

High speed wind tunnel aerodynamic performance tests of the SR-7A advanced prop-fan have been completed in support of the Prop-Fan Test Assessment (PTA) flight test program. The test showed that the SR-7A model performed aerodynamically very well. At the cruise design condition, the SR-7A prop fan had a high measured net efficiency of 79.3 percent.

Development of a model to assess environmental performance, concerning HSE-MS principles.

PubMed

Abbaspour, M; Hosseinzadeh Lotfi, F; Karbassi, A R; Roayaei, E; Nikoomaram, H

2010-06-01

The main objective of the present study was to develop a valid and appropriate model to evaluate companies' efficiency and environmental performance, concerning health, safety, and environmental management system principles. The proposed model overcomes the shortcomings of the previous models developed in this area. This model has been designed on the basis of a mathematical method known as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). In order to differentiate high-performing companies from weak ones, one of DEA nonradial models named as enhanced Russell graph efficiency measure has been applied. Since some of the environmental performance indicators cannot be controlled by companies' managers, it was necessary to develop the model in a way that it could be applied when discretionary and/or nondiscretionary factors were involved. The model, then, has been modified on a real case that comprised 12 oil and gas general contractors. The results showed the relative efficiency, inefficiency sources, and the rank of contractors.

E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Vadose Zone Model: Confirmation of Water Mass Balance for Subsidence Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dyer, J. A.

In preparation for the next revision of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) Performance Assessment (PA), a mass balance model was developed in Microsoft Excel to confirm correct implementation of intact- and subsided-area infiltration profiles for the proposed closure cap in the PORFLOW vadose-zone model. The infiltration profiles are based on the results of Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model simulations for both intact and subsided cases.

Empirical Test of the Know, See, Plan, Do Model for Curriculum Design in Leadership Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Beth Ann; Allen, Scott J.

2016-01-01

This research assesses the Know, See, Plan, portions of the Know, See, Plan, Do (KSPD) model for curriculum design in leadership education. There were 3 graduate student groups, each taught using 1 of 3 different curriculum designs (KSPD and 2 control groups). Based on a pretest, post-test design, students' performance was measured to assess their…

Modeling hazardous fire potential within a completed fuel treatment network in the northern Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Heather A. Kramer; Kurt Menning; Colin Dillingham; David Saah; Peter A. Stine; Scott L. Stephens

2013-01-01

We built on previous work by performing a more in-depth examination of a completed landscape fuel treatment network. Our specific objectives were: (1) model hazardous fire potential with and without the treatment network, (2) project hazardous fire potential over several decades to assess fuel treatment network longevity, and (3) assess fuel treatment effectiveness and...

Research Assessment Exercise Results and Research Funding in the United Kingdom: A Comparative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chatterji, Monojit; Seaman, Paul

2006-01-01

A considerable sum of money is allocated to UK universities on the basis of Research Assessment Exercise performance. In this paper we analyse the two main funding models used in the United Kingdom and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. We suggest that the benchmarking used by the two main models have significant weaknesses, and propose an…

Assessing Interval Estimation Methods for Hill Model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maximum likelihood are commonly used in high-throughput risk assessment, but such estimates typically fail to include reliable information concerning confidence in (or precision of) the estimates. To address this issue, we examined methods for assessing uncertainty in Hill model parameter estimates derived from concentration-response data. In particular, using a sample of ToxCast concentration-response data sets, we applied four methods for obtaining interval estimates that are based on asymptotic theory, bootstrapping (two varieties), and Bayesian parameter estimation, and then compared the results. These interval estimation methods generally did not agree, so we devised a simulation study to assess their relative performance. We generated simulated data by constructing four statistical error models capable of producing concentration-response data sets comparable to those observed in ToxCast. We then applied the four interval estimation methods to the simulated data and compared the actual coverage of the interval estimates to the nominal coverage (e.g., 95%) in order to quantify performance of each of the methods in a variety of cases (i.e., different values of the true Hill model paramet

Modeling emissions of volatile organic compounds from silage storages and feed lanes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An initial volatile organic compound (VOC) emission model for silage sources, developed using experimental data from previous studies, was incorporated into the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM), a whole-farm simulation model used to assess the performance, environmental impacts, and economics of ...

Simulated training in colonoscopic stenting of colonic strictures: validation of a cadaver model.

PubMed

Iordache, F; Bucobo, J C; Devlin, D; You, K; Bergamaschi, R

2015-07-01

There are currently no available simulation models for training in colonoscopic stent deployment. The aim of this study was to validate a cadaver model for simulation training in colonoscopy with stent deployment for colonic strictures. This was a prospective study enrolling surgeons at a single institution. Participants performed colonoscopic stenting on a cadaver model. Their performance was assessed by two independent observers. Measurements were performed for quantitative analysis (time to identify stenosis, time for deployment, accuracy) and a weighted score was devised for assessment. The Mann-Whitney U-test and Student's t-test were used for nonparametric and parametric data, respectively. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used for reliability. Twenty participants performed a colonoscopy with deployment of a self-expandable metallic stent in two cadavers (groups A and B) with 20 strictures overall. The median time was 206 s. The model was able to differentiate between experts and novices (P = 0. 013). The results showed a good consensus estimate of reliability, with kappa = 0.571 (P < 0.0001). The cadaver model described in this study has content, construct and concurrent validity for simulation training in colonoscopic deployment of self-expandable stents for colonic strictures. Further studies are needed to evaluate the predictive validity of this model in terms of skill transfer to clinical practice. Colorectal Disease © 2014 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Assessment of zero-equation SGS models for simulating indoor environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghinia, Javad; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Tse, Tim K. T.

2016-12-01

The understanding of air-flow in enclosed spaces plays a key role to designing ventilation systems and indoor environment. The computational fluid dynamics aspects dictate that the large eddy simulation (LES) offers a subtle means to analyze complex flows with recirculation and streamline curvature effects, providing more robust and accurate details than those of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulations. This work assesses the performance of two zero-equation sub-grid scale models: the Rahman-Agarwal-Siikonen-Taghinia (RAST) model with a single grid-filter and the dynamic Smagorinsky model with grid-filter and test-filter scales. This in turn allows a cross-comparison of the effect of two different LES methods in simulating indoor air-flows with forced and mixed (natural + forced) convection. A better performance against experiments is indicated with the RAST model in wall-bounded non-equilibrium indoor air-flows; this is due to its sensitivity toward both the shear and vorticity parameters.

Comparison of the Utility of Two Assessments for Explaining and Predicting Productivity Change: Well-Being Versus an HRA.

PubMed

Gandy, William M; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Rula, Elizabeth Y

2016-01-01

To compare utility of employee well-being to health risk assessment (HRA) as predictors of productivity change. Panel data from 2189 employees who completed surveys 2 years apart were used in hierarchical models comparing the influence of well-being and health risk on longitudinal changes in presenteeism and job performance. Absenteeism change was evaluated in a nonexempt subsample. Change in well-being was the most significant independent predictor of productivity change across all three measures. Comparing hierarchical models, well-being models performed significantly better than HRA models. The HRA added no incremental explanatory power over well-being in combined models. Alone, nonphysical health well-being components outperformed the HRA for all productivity measures. Well-being offers a more comprehensive measure of factors that influence productivity and can be considered preferential to HRA in understanding and addressing suboptimal productivity.

Simplified Analysis of Pulse Detonation Rocket Engine Blowdown Gasdynamics and Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, C. I.; Rodgers, Stephen L. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Pulse detonation rocket engines (PDREs) offer potential performance improvements over conventional designs, but represent a challenging modellng task. A simplified model for an idealized, straight-tube, single-shot PDRE blowdown process and thrust determination is described and implemented. In order to form an assessment of the accuracy of the model, the flowfield time history is compared to experimental data from Stanford University. Parametric Studies of the effect of mixture stoichiometry, initial fill temperature, and blowdown pressure ratio on the performance of a PDRE are performed using the model. PDRE performance is also compared with a conventional steady-state rocket engine over a range of pressure ratios using similar gasdynamic assumptions.

Comparison between two statistically based methods, and two physically based models developed to compute daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in the Cedar River Basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linhart, S. Mike; Nania, Jon F.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.; Sanders, Curtis L.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2013-01-01

A variety of individuals from water resource managers to recreational users need streamflow information for planning and decisionmaking at locations where there are no streamgages. To address this problem, two statistically based methods, the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method and the Flow Anywhere method, were developed for statewide application and the two physically based models, the Precipitation Runoff Modeling-System and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, were only developed for application for the Cedar River Basin. Observed and estimated streamflows for the two methods and models were compared for goodness of fit at 13 streamgages modeled in the Cedar River Basin by using the Nash-Sutcliffe and the percent-bias efficiency values. Based on median and mean Nash-Sutcliffe values for the 13 streamgages the Precipitation Runoff Modeling-System and Soil and Water Assessment Tool models appear to have performed similarly and better than Flow Duration Curve Transfer and Flow Anywhere methods. Based on median and mean percent bias values, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model appears to have generally overestimated daily mean streamflows, whereas the Precipitation Runoff Modeling-System model and statistical methods appear to have underestimated daily mean streamflows. The Flow Duration Curve Transfer method produced the lowest median and mean percent bias values and appears to perform better than the other models.

Taiwan industrial cooperation program technology transfer for low-level radioactive waste final disposal - phase I.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knowlton, Robert G.; Cochran, John Russell; Arnold, Bill Walter

2007-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories and the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Taiwan have collaborated in a technology transfer program related to low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal in Taiwan. Phase I of this program included regulatory analysis of LLW final disposal, development of LLW disposal performance assessment capabilities, and preliminary performance assessments of two potential disposal sites. Performance objectives were based on regulations in Taiwan and comparisons to those in the United States. Probabilistic performance assessment models were constructed based on limited site data using software including GoldSim, BLT-MS, FEHM, and HELP. These software codes provided the probabilistic framework, container degradation, waste-formmore » leaching, groundwater flow, radionuclide transport, and cover infiltration simulation capabilities in the performance assessment. Preliminary performance assessment analyses were conducted for a near-surface disposal system and a mined cavern disposal system at two representative sites in Taiwan. Results of example calculations indicate peak simulated concentrations to a receptor within a few hundred years of LLW disposal, primarily from highly soluble, non-sorbing radionuclides.« less

Assessing the Relative Performance of Nurses Using Data Envelopment Analysis Matrix (DEAM).

PubMed

Vafaee Najar, Ali; Pooya, Alireza; Alizadeh Zoeram, Ali; Emrouznejad, Ali

2018-05-31

Assessing employee performance is one of the most important issue in healthcare management services. Because of their direct relationship with patients, nurses are also the most influential hospital staff who play a vital role in providing healthcare services. In this paper, a novel Data Envelopment Analysis Matrix (DEAM) approach is proposed for assessing the performance of nurses based on relative efficiency. The proposed model consists of five input variables (including type of employment, work experience, training hours, working hours and overtime hours) and eight output variables (the outputs are amount of hours each nurse spend on each of the eight activities including documentation, medical instructions, wound care and patient drainage, laboratory sampling, assessment and control care, follow-up and counseling and para-clinical measures, attendance during visiting and discharge suction) have been tested on 30 nurses from the heart department of a hospital in Iran. After determining the relative efficiency of each nurse based on the DEA model, the nurses' performance were evaluated in a DEAM format. As results the nurses were divided into four groups; superstars, potential stars, those who are needed to be trained effectively and question marks. Finally, based on the proposed approach, we have drawn some recommendations to policy makers in order to improve and maintain the performance of each of these groups. The proposed approach provides a practical framework for hospital managers so that they can assess the relative efficiency of nurses, plan and take steps to improve the quality of healthcare delivery.

Validation of Ten Noninvasive Diagnostic Models for Prediction of Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B

PubMed Central

Cheng, Jieyao; Hou, Jinlin; Ding, Huiguo; Chen, Guofeng; Xie, Qing; Wang, Yuming; Zeng, Minde; Ou, Xiaojuan; Ma, Hong; Jia, Jidong

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Noninvasive models have been developed for fibrosis assessment in patients with chronic hepatitis B. However, the sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy in evaluating liver fibrosis of these methods have not been validated and compared in the same group of patients. The aim of this study was to verify the diagnostic performance and reproducibility of ten reported noninvasive models in a large cohort of Asian CHB patients. Methods The diagnostic performance of ten noninvasive models (HALF index, FibroScan, S index, Zeng model, Youyi model, Hui model, APAG, APRI, FIB-4 and FibroTest) was assessed against the liver histology by ROC curve analysis in CHB patients. The reproducibility of the ten models were evaluated by recalculating the diagnostic values at the given cut-off values defined by the original studies. Results Six models (HALF index, FibroScan, Zeng model, Youyi model, S index and FibroTest) had AUROCs higher than 0.70 in predicting any fibrosis stage and 2 of them had best diagnostic performance with AUROCs to predict F≥2, F≥3 and F4 being 0.83, 0.89 and 0.89 for HALF index, 0.82, 0.87 and 0.87 for FibroScan, respectively. Four models (HALF index, FibroScan, Zeng model and Youyi model) showed good diagnostic values at given cut-offs. Conclusions HALF index, FibroScan, Zeng model, Youyi model, S index and FibroTest show a good diagnostic performance and all of them, except S index and FibroTest, have good reproducibility for evaluating liver fibrosis in CHB patients. Registration Number ChiCTR-DCS-07000039. PMID:26709706

TRM4: Range performance model for electro-optical imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keßler, Stefan; Gal, Raanan; Wittenstein, Wolfgang

2017-05-01

TRM4 is a commonly used model for assessing device and range performance of electro-optical imagers. The latest version, TRM4.v2, has been released by Fraunhofer IOSB of Germany in June 2016. While its predecessor, TRM3, was developed for thermal imagers, assuming blackbody targets and backgrounds, TRM4 extends the TRM approach to assess three imager categories: imagers that exploit emitted radiation (TRM4 category Thermal), reflected radiation (TRM4 category Visible/NIR/SWIR), and both emitted and reflected radiation (TRM4 category General). Performance assessment in TRM3 and TRM4 is based on the perception of standard four-bar test patterns, whether distorted by under-sampling or not. Spatial and sampling characteristics are taken into account by the Average Modulation at Optimum Phase (AMOP), which replaces the system MTF used in previous models. The Minimum Temperature Difference Perceived (MTDP) figure of merit was introduced in TRM3 for assessing the range performance of thermal imagers. In TRM4, this concept is generalized to the MDSP (Minimum Difference Signal Perceived), which can be applied to all imager categories. In this paper, we outline and discuss the TRM approach and pinpoint differences between TRM4 and TRM3. In addition, an overview of the TRM4 software and its functionality is given. Features newly introduced in TRM4, such as atmospheric turbulence, irradiation sources, and libraries are addressed. We conclude with an outlook on future work and the new module for intensified CCD cameras that is currently under development

Biological and functional relevance of CASP predictions.

PubMed

Liu, Tianyun; Ish-Shalom, Shirbi; Torng, Wen; Lafita, Aleix; Bock, Christian; Mort, Matthew; Cooper, David N; Bliven, Spencer; Capitani, Guido; Mooney, Sean D; Altman, Russ B

2018-03-01

Our goal is to answer the question: compared with experimental structures, how useful are predicted models for functional annotation? We assessed the functional utility of predicted models by comparing the performances of a suite of methods for functional characterization on the predictions and the experimental structures. We identified 28 sites in 25 protein targets to perform functional assessment. These 28 sites included nine sites with known ligand binding (holo-sites), nine sites that are expected or suggested by experimental authors for small molecule binding (apo-sites), and Ten sites containing important motifs, loops, or key residues with important disease-associated mutations. We evaluated the utility of the predictions by comparing their microenvironments to the experimental structures. Overall structural quality correlates with functional utility. However, the best-ranked predictions (global) may not have the best functional quality (local). Our assessment provides an ability to discriminate between predictions with high structural quality. When assessing ligand-binding sites, most prediction methods have higher performance on apo-sites than holo-sites. Some servers show consistently high performance for certain types of functional sites. Finally, many functional sites are associated with protein-protein interaction. We also analyzed biologically relevant features from the protein assemblies of two targets where the active site spanned the protein-protein interface. For the assembly targets, we find that the features in the models are mainly determined by the choice of template. © 2017 The Authors Proteins: Structure, Function and Bioinformatics Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The SKI repository performance assessment project Site-94

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andersson, J.; Dverstorp, B.; Sjoeblom, R.

1995-12-01

SITE-94 is a research project conducted as a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository for spent nuclear fuel, but with real pre-excavation data from a real site. The geosphere, the engineered barriers and the processes for radionuclide release and transport comprise an integrated interdependent system, which is described by an influence diagram (PID) that reflects how different Features, Events or Processes (FEPs) inside the system interact. Site evaluation is used to determine information of transport paths in the geosphere and to deliver information on geosphere interaction with the engineered barriers. A three-dimensional geological structure model of the site as wellmore » as alternative conceptual models consistent with the existing hydrological field data, have been analyzed. Groundwater chemistry is evaluated and a model, fairly consistent with the flow model, for the origin of the different waters has been developed. The geological structure model is also used for analyzing the mechanical stability of the site. Several phenomena of relevance for copper corrosion in a repository environment have been investigated. For Reference Case conditions and regardless of flow variability, output is dominated by I-129, which, for a single canister, may give rise to drinking water well doses in the order of 10{sup -6}Sv/yr. Finally, it appears that the procedures involved in the development of influence diagrams may be a promising tool for quality assurance of performance assessments.« less

A modular approach for assessing the effect of radiation environments on man in operational systems. The radiobiological vulnerability of man during task performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ewing, D. E.

1972-01-01

A modular approach for assessing the affects of radiation environments on man in operational systems has been developed. The feasibility of the model has been proved and the practicality has been assessed. It has been applied to one operational system to date and information obtained has been submitted to systems analysts and mission planners for the assessment of man's vulnerability and impact on systems survivability. In addition, the model has been developed so that the radiobiological data can be input to a sophisticated man-machine interface model to properly relate the radiobiological stress with other mission stresses including the effects of a degraded system.

A Perkins Challenge: Assessing Technical Skills in CTE

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, James R., III

2009-01-01

Federal law requires state to develop performance measures and data-collection systems for secondary and postsecondary technical-skill attainment. This poses many challenges, such as defining a technical skills, measurement and when to assess students. In this article, the author outlines various assessment models and looks at the challenges…

A Critical Analysis of the Child and Adolescent Wellness Scale (CAWS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weller-Clarke, Alandra

2006-01-01

Current practice for assessing children and adolescents rely on objectively scored deficit-based models and/or informal assessments to determine how maladaptive behaviors affect performance. Social-emotional assessment instruments are used in schools and typically provide information related to behavioral and emotional deficits, but provide little…

Investigating Psychometric Isomorphism for Traditional and Performance-Based Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fay, Derek M.; Levy, Roy; Mehta, Vandhana

2018-01-01

A common practice in educational assessment is to construct multiple forms of an assessment that consists of tasks with similar psychometric properties. This study utilizes a Bayesian multilevel item response model and descriptive graphical representations to evaluate the psychometric similarity of variations of the same task. These approaches for…

The integrated landscape assessment project

Treesearch

Miles A. Hemstrom; Janine Salwasser; Joshua Halofsky; Jimmy Kagan; Cyndi Comfort

2012-01-01

The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) is a three-year effort that produces information, models, data, and tools to help land managers, policymakers, and others examine mid- to broad-scale (e.g., watersheds to states and larger areas) prioritization of land management actions, perform landscape assessments, and estimate potential effects of management...

Assessing Performance Tradeoffs in Undersea Distributed Sensor Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

time. We refer to this process as track - before - detect (see [5] for a description), since the final determination of a target presence is not made until...expressions for probability of successful search and probability of false search for modeling the track - before - detect process. We then describe a numerical...random manner (randomly sampled from a uniform distribution). II. SENSOR NETWORK PERFORMANCE MODELS We model the process of track - before - detect by

Assessing deep and shallow learning methods for quantitative prediction of acute chemical toxicity.

PubMed

Liu, Ruifeng; Madore, Michael; Glover, Kyle P; Feasel, Michael G; Wallqvist, Anders

2018-05-02

Animal-based methods for assessing chemical toxicity are struggling to meet testing demands. In silico approaches, including machine-learning methods, are promising alternatives. Recently, deep neural networks (DNNs) were evaluated and reported to outperform other machine-learning methods for quantitative structure-activity relationship modeling of molecular properties. However, most of the reported performance evaluations relied on global performance metrics, such as the root mean squared error (RMSE) between the predicted and experimental values of all samples, without considering the impact of sample distribution across the activity spectrum. Here, we carried out an in-depth analysis of DNN performance for quantitative prediction of acute chemical toxicity using several datasets. We found that the overall performance of DNN models on datasets of up to 30,000 compounds was similar to that of random forest (RF) models, as measured by the RMSE and correlation coefficients between the predicted and experimental results. However, our detailed analyses demonstrated that global performance metrics are inappropriate for datasets with a highly uneven sample distribution, because they show a strong bias for the most populous compounds along the toxicity spectrum. For highly toxic compounds, DNN and RF models trained on all samples performed much worse than the global performance metrics indicated. Surprisingly, our variable nearest neighbor method, which utilizes only structurally similar compounds to make predictions, performed reasonably well, suggesting that information of close near neighbors in the training sets is a key determinant of acute toxicity predictions.

CFD Study of the Performance of an Operational Wind Farm and its Impact on the Local Climate: CFD sensitivity to forestry modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wylie, Scott; Watson, Simon

2013-04-01

Any past, current or projected future wind farm developments are highly dependent on localised climatic conditions. For example the mean wind speed, one of the main factors in assessing the economic feasibility of a wind farm, can vary significantly over length scales no greater than the size of a typical wind farm. Any additional heterogeneity at a potential site, such as forestry, can affect the wind resource further not accounting for the additional difficulty of installation. If a wind farm is sited in an environmentally sensitive area then the ability to predict the wind farm performance and possible impacts on the important localised climatic conditions are of increased importance. Siting of wind farms in environmentally sensitive areas is not uncommon, such as areas of peat-land as in this example. Areas of peat-land are important sinks for carbon in the atmosphere but their ability to sequester carbon is highly dependent on the local climatic conditions. An operational wind farm's impact on such an area was investigated using CFD. Validation of the model outputs were carried out using field measurements from three automatic weather stations (AWS) located throughout the site. The study focuses on validation of both wind speed and turbulence measurement, whilst also assessing the models ability to predict wind farm performance. The use of CFD to model the variation in wind speed over heterogeneous terrain, including wind turbines effects, is increasing in popularity. Encouraging results have increased confidence in the ability of CFD performance in complex terrain with features such as steep slopes and forests, which are not well modelled by the widely used linear models such as WAsP and MS-Micro. Using concurrent measurements from three stationary AWS across the wind farm will allow detailed validation of the model predicted flow characteristics, whilst aggregated power output information will allow an assessment of how accurate the model setup can predict wind farm performance. Given the dependence of the local climatic conditions influence on the peat-land's ability to sequester carbon, accurate predictions of the local wind and turbulence features will allow us to quantify any possible wind farm influences. This work was carried out using the commercially available Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) CFD package ANSYS CFX. Utilising the Windmodeller add-on in CFX, a series of simulations were carried out to assess wind flow interactions through and around the wind farm, incorporating features such as terrain, forestry and rotor wake interactions. Particular attention was paid to forestry effects, as the AWS are located close to the vicinity of forestry. Different Leaf Area Densities (LAD) were tested to assess how sensitive the models output was to this change.

Secondary Students' Writing Achievement Goals: Assessing the Mediating Effects of Mastery and Performance Goals on Writing Self-Efficacy, Affect, and Writing Achievement

PubMed Central

Yilmaz Soylu, Meryem; Zeleny, Mary G.; Zhao, Ruomeng; Bruning, Roger H.; Dempsey, Michael S.; Kauffman, Douglas F.

2017-01-01

The two studies reported here explored the factor structure of the newly constructed Writing Achievement Goal Scale (WAGS), and examined relationships among secondary students' writing achievement goals, writing self-efficacy, affect for writing, and writing achievement. In the first study, 697 middle school students completed the WAGS. A confirmatory factor analysis revealed a good fit for this data with a three-factor model that corresponds with mastery, performance approach, and performance avoidance goals. The results of Study 1 were an indication for the researchers to move forward with Study 2, which included 563 high school students. The secondary students completed the WAGS, as well as the Self-efficacy for Writing Scale, and the Liking Writing Scale. Students also self-reported grades for writing and for language arts courses. Approximately 6 weeks later, students completed a statewide writing assessment. We tested a theoretical model representing relationships among Study 2 variables using structural equation modeling including students' responses to the study scales and students' scores on the statewide assessment. Results from Study 2 revealed a good fit between a model depicting proposed relationships among the constructs and the data. Findings are discussed relative to achievement goal theory and writing. PMID:28878707

A simple method for assessment of muscle force, velocity, and power producing capacities from functional movement tasks.

PubMed

Zivkovic, Milena Z; Djuric, Sasa; Cuk, Ivan; Suzovic, Dejan; Jaric, Slobodan

2017-07-01

A range of force (F) and velocity (V) data obtained from functional movement tasks (e.g., running, jumping, throwing, lifting, cycling) performed under variety of external loads have typically revealed strong and approximately linear F-V relationships. The regression model parameters reveal the maximum F (F-intercept), V (V-intercept), and power (P) producing capacities of the tested muscles. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the level of agreement between the routinely used "multiple-load model" and a simple "two-load model" based on direct assessment of the F-V relationship from only 2 external loads applied. Twelve participants were tested on the maximum performance vertical jumps, cycling, bench press throws, and bench pull performed against a variety of different loads. All 4 tested tasks revealed both exceptionally strong relationships between the parameters of the 2 models (median R = 0.98) and a lack of meaningful differences between their magnitudes (fixed bias below 3.4%). Therefore, addition of another load to the standard tests of various functional tasks typically conducted under a single set of mechanical conditions could allow for the assessment of the muscle mechanical properties such as the muscle F, V, and P producing capacities.

Review and comparison between the Wells-Riley and dose-response approaches to risk assessment of infectious respiratory diseases.

PubMed

Sze To, G N; Chao, C Y H

2010-02-01

Infection risk assessment is very useful in understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and in predicting the risk of these diseases to the public. Quantitative infection risk assessment can provide quantitative analysis of disease transmission and the effectiveness of infection control measures. The Wells-Riley model has been extensively used for quantitative infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases in indoor premises. Some newer studies have also proposed the use of dose-response models for such purpose. This study reviews and compares these two approaches to infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases. The Wells-Riley model allows quick assessment and does not require interspecies extrapolation of infectivity. Dose-response models can consider other disease transmission routes in addition to airborne route and can calculate the infectious source strength of an outbreak in terms of the quantity of the pathogen rather than a hypothetical unit. Spatial distribution of airborne pathogens is one of the most important factors in infection risk assessment of respiratory disease. Respiratory deposition of aerosol induces heterogeneous infectivity of intake pathogens and randomness on the intake dose, which are not being well accounted for in current risk models. Some suggestions for further development of the risk assessment models are proposed. This review article summarizes the strengths and limitations of the Wells-Riley and the dose-response models for risk assessment of respiratory diseases. Even with many efforts by various investigators to develop and modify the risk assessment models, some limitations still persist. This review serves as a reference for further development of infection risk assessment models of respiratory diseases. The Wells-Riley model and dose-response model offer specific advantages. Risk assessors can select the approach that is suitable to their particular conditions to perform risk assessment.

Assessing hemispheric specialization for processing arithmetic skills in adults: A functional transcranial doppler ultrasonography (fTCD) study.

PubMed

Connaughton, Veronica M; Amiruddin, Azhani; Clunies-Ross, Karen L; French, Noel; Fox, Allison M

2017-05-01

A major model of the cerebral circuits that underpin arithmetic calculation is the triple-code model of numerical processing. This model proposes that the lateralization of mathematical operations is organized across three circuits: a left-hemispheric dominant verbal code; a bilateral magnitude representation of numbers and a bilateral Arabic number code. This study simultaneously measured the blood flow of both middle cerebral arteries using functional transcranial Doppler ultrasonography to assess hemispheric specialization during the performance of both language and arithmetic tasks. The propositions of the triple-code model were assessed in a non-clinical adult group by measuring cerebral blood flow during the performance of multiplication and subtraction problems. Participants were 17 adults aged between 18-27 years. We obtained laterality indices for each type of mathematical operation and compared these in participants with left-hemispheric language dominance. It was hypothesized that blood flow would lateralize to the left hemisphere during the performance of multiplication operations, but would not lateralize during the performance of subtraction operations. Hemispheric blood flow was significantly left lateralized during the multiplication task, but was not lateralized during the subtraction task. Compared to high spatial resolution neuroimaging techniques previously used to measure cerebral lateralization, functional transcranial Doppler ultrasonography is a cost-effective measure that provides a superior temporal representation of arithmetic cognition. These results provide support for the triple-code model of arithmetic processing and offer complementary evidence that multiplication operations are processed differently in the adult brain compared to subtraction operations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Designing and benchmarking the MULTICOM protein structure prediction system

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Predicting protein structure from sequence is one of the most significant and challenging problems in bioinformatics. Numerous bioinformatics techniques and tools have been developed to tackle almost every aspect of protein structure prediction ranging from structural feature prediction, template identification and query-template alignment to structure sampling, model quality assessment, and model refinement. How to synergistically select, integrate and improve the strengths of the complementary techniques at each prediction stage and build a high-performance system is becoming a critical issue for constructing a successful, competitive protein structure predictor. Results Over the past several years, we have constructed a standalone protein structure prediction system MULTICOM that combines multiple sources of information and complementary methods at all five stages of the protein structure prediction process including template identification, template combination, model generation, model assessment, and model refinement. The system was blindly tested during the ninth Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP9) in 2010 and yielded very good performance. In addition to studying the overall performance on the CASP9 benchmark, we thoroughly investigated the performance and contributions of each component at each stage of prediction. Conclusions Our comprehensive and comparative study not only provides useful and practical insights about how to select, improve, and integrate complementary methods to build a cutting-edge protein structure prediction system but also identifies a few new sources of information that may help improve the design of a protein structure prediction system. Several components used in the MULTICOM system are available at: http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/multicom_toolbox/. PMID:23442819

Process-based interpretation of conceptual hydrological model performance using a multinational catchment set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poncelet, Carine; Merz, Ralf; Merz, Bruno; Parajka, Juraj; Oudin, Ludovic; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles

2017-08-01

Most of previous assessments of hydrologic model performance are fragmented, based on small number of catchments, different methods or time periods and do not link the results to landscape or climate characteristics. This study uses large-sample hydrology to identify major catchment controls on daily runoff simulations. It is based on a conceptual lumped hydrological model (GR6J), a collection of 29 catchment characteristics, a multinational set of 1103 catchments located in Austria, France, and Germany and four runoff model efficiency criteria. Two analyses are conducted to assess how features and criteria are linked: (i) a one-dimensional analysis based on the Kruskal-Wallis test and (ii) a multidimensional analysis based on regression trees and investigating the interplay between features. The catchment features most affecting model performance are the flashiness of precipitation and streamflow (computed as the ratio of absolute day-to-day fluctuations by the total amount in a year), the seasonality of evaporation, the catchment area, and the catchment aridity. Nonflashy, nonseasonal, large, and nonarid catchments show the best performance for all the tested criteria. We argue that this higher performance is due to fewer nonlinear responses (higher correlation between precipitation and streamflow) and lower input and output variability for such catchments. Finally, we show that, compared to national sets, multinational sets increase results transferability because they explore a wider range of hydroclimatic conditions.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

Environment effects from SRB exhaust effluents: Technique development and preliminary assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldford, A. I.; Adelfang, S. I.; Hickey, J. S.; Smith, S. R.; Welty, R. P.; White, G. L.

1977-01-01

Techniques to determine the environmental effects from the space shuttle SRB (Solid Rocket Booster) exhaust effluents are used to perform a preliminary climatological assessment. The exhaust effluent chemistry study was performed and the exhaust effluent species were determined. A reasonable exhaust particle size distribution is constructed for use in nozzle analyses and for the deposition model. The preliminary assessment is used to identify problems that are associated with the full-scale assessment; therefore, these preliminary air quality results are used with caution in drawing conclusion regarding the environmental effects of the space shuttle exhaust effluents.

An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T; Thornton, Peter E

2009-12-01

The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Projectmore » (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.« less

HENRY'S LAW CALCULATOR

EPA Science Inventory

On-Site was developed to provide modelers and model reviewers with prepackaged tools ("calculators") for performing site assessment calculations. The philosophy behind OnSite is that the convenience of the prepackaged calculators helps provide consistency for simple calculations,...

Evaluation of mean climate in a chemistry-climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, S.; Park, H.; Wie, J.; Park, R.; Lee, S.; Moon, B. K.

2017-12-01

Incorporation of the interactive chemistry is essential for understanding chemistry-climate interactions and feedback processes in climate models. Here we assess a newly developed chemistry-climate model (GRIMs-Chem), which is based on the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) including the aerosol direct effect as well as stratospheric linearized ozone chemistry (LINOZ). We conducted GRIMs-Chem with observed sea surface temperature during the period of 1979-2010, and compared the simulation results with observations and also with CMIP models. To measure the relative performance of our model, we define the quantitative performance metric using the Taylor diagram. This metric allow us to assess overall features in simulating multiple variables. Overall, our model better reproduce the zonal mean spatial pattern of temperature, horizontal wind, vertical motion, and relative humidity relative to other models. However, the model did not produce good simulations at upper troposphere (200 hPa). It is currently unclear which model processes are responsible for this. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program."

Ecohydrology of Graciosa semi-natural grasslands: water use and evapotranspiration partition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paço, Teresa A.; Paredes, Paula; Azevedo, Eduardo B.; Madruga, João S.; Pereira, Luís S.

2016-04-01

Semi-natural grasslands are a main landscape of Graciosa and other Islands of Azores. The present study aims at calibrate and validate the soil water balance model SIMDualKc for those grasslands aiming at assessing the dynamics of soil water and evapotranspiration. This objective relates with the need to improve knowledge on the ecohydrology of grasslands established in (volcanic) Andosols. This model adopts the dual crop coefficient approach to compute daily crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and to perform its partition into transpiration (T) and soil evaporation (Es). The application refers to a semi-natural grassland sporadically sowed with ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.). Model calibration and validation were performed comparing simulated against observed grassland evapotranspiration throughout two periods in consecutive years. Daily ET values were derived from eddy covariance data collected at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) facility of the ARM programme (established and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy with the collaboration of the local government and University of the Azores), at Graciosa, Azores (Portugal). Various statistical performance indicators were used to assess model accuracy and results show a good adequacy of the model for predicting vegetation ET in such conditions. Surface flux energy balance was also evaluated throughout the observation period (2014-2016). The ratio Es/ET shows that soil evaporation is much small than T/ET due to high soil cover by vegetation. The model was then applied to contrasting climatic conditions (dry vs. wet years) to assess related impacts on water balance components and grassland transpiration.

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model: A dynamic approach for predicting soil loss on rangelands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this study we present the improved Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM V2.3), a process-based erosion prediction tool specific for rangeland application. The article provides the mathematical formulation of the model and parameter estimation equations. Model performance is assessed agains...

An analytical framework for estimating aquatic species density from environmental DNA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambert, Thierry; Pilliod, David S.; Goldberg, Caren S.; Doi, Hideyuki; Takahara, Teruhiko

2018-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis of water samples is on the brink of becoming a standard monitoring method for aquatic species. This method has improved detection rates over conventional survey methods and thus has demonstrated effectiveness for estimation of site occupancy and species distribution. The frontier of eDNA applications, however, is to infer species density. Building upon previous studies, we present and assess a modeling approach that aims at inferring animal density from eDNA. The modeling combines eDNA and animal count data from a subset of sites to estimate species density (and associated uncertainties) at other sites where only eDNA data are available. As a proof of concept, we first perform a cross-validation study using experimental data on carp in mesocosms. In these data, fish densities are known without error, which allows us to test the performance of the method with known data. We then evaluate the model using field data from a study on a stream salamander species to assess the potential of this method to work in natural settings, where density can never be known with absolute certainty. Two alternative distributions (Normal and Negative Binomial) to model variability in eDNA concentration data are assessed. Assessment based on the proof of concept data (carp) revealed that the Negative Binomial model provided much more accurate estimates than the model based on a Normal distribution, likely because eDNA data tend to be overdispersed. Greater imprecision was found when we applied the method to the field data, but the Negative Binomial model still provided useful density estimates. We call for further model development in this direction, as well as further research targeted at sampling design optimization. It will be important to assess these approaches on a broad range of study systems.

A multi-site comparison of in vivo safety pharmacology studies conducted to support ICH S7A & B regulatory submissions.

PubMed

Ewart, Lorna; Milne, Aileen; Adkins, Debbie; Benjamin, Amanda; Bialecki, Russell; Chen, Yafei; Ericsson, Ann-Christin; Gardner, Stacey; Grant, Claire; Lengel, David; Lindgren, Silvana; Lowing, Sarah; Marks, Louise; Moors, Jackie; Oldman, Karen; Pietras, Mark; Prior, Helen; Punton, James; Redfern, Will S; Salmond, Ross; Skinner, Matt; Some, Margareta; Stanton, Andrea; Swedberg, Michael; Finch, John; Valentin, Jean-Pierre

2013-01-01

Parts A and B of the ICH S7 guidelines on safety pharmacology describe the in vivo studies that must be conducted prior to first time in man administration of any new pharmaceutical. ICH S7A requires a consideration of the sensitivity and reproducibility of the test systems used. This could encompass maintaining a dataset of historical pre-dose values, power analyses, as well as a demonstration of acceptable model sensitivity and robust pharmacological validation. During the process of outsourcing safety pharmacology studies to Charles River Laboratories, AstraZeneca set out to ensure that models were performed identically in each facility and saw this as an opportunity to review the inter-laboratory variability of these essential models. The five in vivo studies outsourced were the conscious dog telemetry model for cardiovascular assessment, the rat whole body plethysmography model for respiratory assessment, the rat modified Irwin screen for central nervous system assessment, the rat charcoal meal study for gastrointestinal assessment and the rat metabolic cage study for assessment of renal function. Each study was validated with known reference compounds and data were compared across facilities. Statistical power was also calculated for each model. The results obtained indicated that each of the studies could be performed with comparable statistical power and could achieve a similar outcome, independent of facility. The consistency of results obtained from these models across multiple facilities was high thus providing confidence that the models can be run in different facilities and maintain compliance with ICH S7A and B. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run.

PubMed

Armeanu, Daniel; Andrei, Jean Vasile; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets.

A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run

PubMed Central

Armeanu, Daniel; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets. PMID:28742100

Development of a human eye model incorporated with intraocular scattering for visual performance assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi-Chun; Jiang, Chong-Jhih; Yang, Tsung-Hsun; Sun, Ching-Cherng

2012-07-01

A biometry-based human eye model was developed by using the empirical anatomic and optical data of ocular parameters. The gradient refractive index of the crystalline lens was modeled by concentric conicoid isoindical surfaces and was adaptive to accommodation and age. The chromatic dispersion of ocular media was described by Cauchy equations. The intraocular scattering model was composed of volumetric Mie scattering in the cornea and the crystalline lens, and a diffusive-surface model at the retina fundus. The retina was regarded as a Lambertian surface and was assigned its corresponding reflectance at each wavelength. The optical performance of the eye model was evaluated in CodeV and ASAP and presented by the modulation transfer functions at single and multiple wavelengths. The chromatic optical powers obtained from this model resembled that of the average physiological eyes. The scattering property was assessed by means of glare veiling luminance and compared with the CIE general disability glare equation. By replacing the transparent lens with a cataractous lens, the disability glare curve of cataracts was generated to compare with the normal disability glare curve. This model has high potential for investigating visual performance in ordinary lighting and display conditions and under the influence of glare sources.

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snyder, Abigail C.; Link, Robert P.; Calvin, Katherine V.

Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data are available) are being undertaken increasingly often by the integrated assessment model (IAM) community, across many scales of models. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation-based measures that can be applied on different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable–region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observationalmore » dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. An ideal evaluation method for hindcast experiments in IAMs would feature both absolute measures for evaluation of a single experiment for a single model and relative measures to compare the results of multiple experiments for a single model or the same experiment repeated across multiple models, such as in community intercomparison studies. The performance benchmarks highlight the use of this scheme for model evaluation in absolute terms, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. To demonstrate the use of and types of results possible with the evaluation method, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. The question of how to more holistically evaluate models as complex as IAMs is an area for future research. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period, such as GCAM. The results of this work indicate it is unlikely that a single evaluation measure for all variables in an IAM exists, and therefore sector-by-sector evaluation may be necessary.« less

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

DOE PAGES

Snyder, Abigail C.; Link, Robert P.; Calvin, Katherine V.

2017-11-29

Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data are available) are being undertaken increasingly often by the integrated assessment model (IAM) community, across many scales of models. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation-based measures that can be applied on different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable–region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observationalmore » dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. An ideal evaluation method for hindcast experiments in IAMs would feature both absolute measures for evaluation of a single experiment for a single model and relative measures to compare the results of multiple experiments for a single model or the same experiment repeated across multiple models, such as in community intercomparison studies. The performance benchmarks highlight the use of this scheme for model evaluation in absolute terms, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. To demonstrate the use of and types of results possible with the evaluation method, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. The question of how to more holistically evaluate models as complex as IAMs is an area for future research. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period, such as GCAM. The results of this work indicate it is unlikely that a single evaluation measure for all variables in an IAM exists, and therefore sector-by-sector evaluation may be necessary.« less

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, Abigail C.; Link, Robert P.; Calvin, Katherine V.

2017-11-01

Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data are available) are being undertaken increasingly often by the integrated assessment model (IAM) community, across many scales of models. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation-based measures that can be applied on different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable-region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observational dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. An ideal evaluation method for hindcast experiments in IAMs would feature both absolute measures for evaluation of a single experiment for a single model and relative measures to compare the results of multiple experiments for a single model or the same experiment repeated across multiple models, such as in community intercomparison studies. The performance benchmarks highlight the use of this scheme for model evaluation in absolute terms, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. To demonstrate the use of and types of results possible with the evaluation method, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. The question of how to more holistically evaluate models as complex as IAMs is an area for future research. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period, such as GCAM. The results of this work indicate it is unlikely that a single evaluation measure for all variables in an IAM exists, and therefore sector-by-sector evaluation may be necessary.

Performance indicators of work activity.

PubMed

Lahoz, Manoela de Assis; Camarotto, João Alberto

2012-01-01

The measurement of performance is a current topic in the management of people in companies, used as a parameter of effectiveness of processes and operations of production. The methods and models of the indicators of current use in the production have concentrated in the assessment of people's performance as determinative resource of the organizational success in the search for the competitiveness. Associated with the classic indicators of performance assessment of the production proceeding, other indicators are used in the assessment of risks and hazards, however with methods focused in the tasks, without connection with the real work activity. The present article explores literature on the models of performance measurement in use in companies and a field research to understand how companies interpret and use indicators that relate health and work, to direct future studies on the subject. Regarding the literature review, one can see that health indicators can be basically divided into two major groups: the legal and managerial indicators. When conducting case studies, it can be realized that companies do not have precisely the concept of health indicator, or were unable to define which of the indicators could be considered indicators of health, considering that absenteeism was the indicator mentioned by the four companies.

Explanatory model of emotional-cognitive variables in school mathematics performance: a longitudinal study in primary school.

PubMed

Cerda, Gamal; Pérez, Carlos; Navarro, José I; Aguilar, Manuel; Casas, José A; Aragón, Estíbaliz

2015-01-01

This study tested a structural model of cognitive-emotional explanatory variables to explain performance in mathematics. The predictor variables assessed were related to students' level of development of early mathematical competencies (EMCs), specifically, relational and numerical competencies, predisposition toward mathematics, and the level of logical intelligence in a population of primary school Chilean students (n = 634). This longitudinal study also included the academic performance of the students during a period of 4 years as a variable. The sampled students were initially assessed by means of an Early Numeracy Test, and, subsequently, they were administered a Likert-type scale to measure their predisposition toward mathematics (EPMAT) and a basic test of logical intelligence. The results of these tests were used to analyse the interaction of all the aforementioned variables by means of a structural equations model. This combined interaction model was able to predict 64.3% of the variability of observed performance. Preschool students' performance in EMCs was a strong predictor for achievement in mathematics for students between 8 and 11 years of age. Therefore, this paper highlights the importance of EMCs and the modulating role of predisposition toward mathematics. Also, this paper discusses the educational role of these findings, as well as possible ways to improve negative predispositions toward mathematical tasks in the school domain.

The challenge of measuring emergency preparedness: integrating component metrics to build system-level measures for strategic national stockpile operations.

PubMed

Jackson, Brian A; Faith, Kay Sullivan

2013-02-01

Although significant progress has been made in measuring public health emergency preparedness, system-level performance measures are lacking. This report examines a potential approach to such measures for Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) operations. We adapted an engineering analytic technique used to assess the reliability of technological systems-failure mode and effects analysis-to assess preparedness. That technique, which includes systematic mapping of the response system and identification of possible breakdowns that affect performance, provides a path to use data from existing SNS assessment tools to estimate likely future performance of the system overall. Systems models of SNS operations were constructed and failure mode analyses were performed for each component. Linking data from existing assessments, including the technical assistance review and functional drills, to reliability assessment was demonstrated using publicly available information. The use of failure mode and effects estimates to assess overall response system reliability was demonstrated with a simple simulation example. Reliability analysis appears an attractive way to integrate information from the substantial investment in detailed assessments for stockpile delivery and dispensing to provide a view of likely future response performance.

Verification, Validation and Credibility Assessment of a Computational Model of the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Werner, C. R.; Humphreys, B. T.; Mulugeta, L.

2014-01-01

The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) is the resistive exercise device used by astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) to mitigate bone loss and muscle atrophy due to extended exposure to microgravity (micro g). The Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) has developed a multi-body dynamics model of biomechanics models for use in spaceflight exercise physiology research and operations. In an effort to advance model maturity and credibility of the ARED model, the DAP performed verification, validation and credibility (VV and C) assessment of the analyses of the model in accordance to NASA-STD-7009 'Standards for Models and Simulations'.

Preliminary report of the Hepatic Encephalopathy Assessment Driving Simulator (HEADS) score.

PubMed

Baskin-Bey, Edwina S; Stewart, Charmaine A; Mitchell, Mary M; Bida, John P; Rosenthal, Theodore J; Nyberg, Scott L

2008-01-01

Audiovisual simulations of real-life driving (ie, driving simulators) have been used to assess neurologic dysfunction in a variety of medical applications. However, the use of simulated driving to assess neurologic impairment in the setting of liver disease (ie, hepatic encephalopathy) is limited. The aim of this analysis was to develop a scoring system based on simulated driving performance to assess mild cognitive impairment in cirrhotic patients with hepatic encephalopathy. This preliminary analysis was conducted as part of the Hepatic Encephalopathy Assessment Driving Simulator (HEADS) pilot study. Cirrhotic volunteers initially underwent a battery of neuropsychological tests to identify those cirrhotic patients with mild cognitive impairment. Performance during an audiovisually simulated course of on-road driving was then compared between mildly impaired cirrhotic patients and healthy volunteers. A scoring system was developed to quantify the likelihood of cognitive impairment on the basis of data from the simulated on-road driving. Mildly impaired cirrhotic patients performed below the level of healthy volunteers on the driving simulator. Univariate logistic regression and correlation models indicated that several driving simulator variables were significant predictors of cognitive impairment. Five variables (run time, total map performance, number of collisions, visual divided attention response, and average lane position) were incorporated into a quantitative model, the HEADS scoring system. The HEADS score (0-9 points) showed a strong correlation with cognitive impairment as measured by area under the receiver-operator curve (.89). The HEADS system appears to be a promising new tool for the assessment of mild hepatic encephalopathy.

Performance measurement of PSF modeling reconstruction (True X) on Siemens Biograph TruePoint TrueV PET/CT.

PubMed

Lee, Young Sub; Kim, Jin Su; Kim, Kyeong Min; Kang, Joo Hyun; Lim, Sang Moo; Kim, Hee-Joung

2014-05-01

The Siemens Biograph TruePoint TrueV (B-TPTV) positron emission tomography (PET) scanner performs 3D PET reconstruction using a system matrix with point spread function (PSF) modeling (called the True X reconstruction). PET resolution was dramatically improved with the True X method. In this study, we assessed the spatial resolution and image quality on a B-TPTV PET scanner. In addition, we assessed the feasibility of animal imaging with a B-TPTV PET and compared it with a microPET R4 scanner. Spatial resolution was measured at center and at 8 cm offset from the center in transverse plane with warm background activity. True X, ordered subset expectation maximization (OSEM) without PSF modeling, and filtered back-projection (FBP) reconstruction methods were used. Percent contrast (% contrast) and percent background variability (% BV) were assessed according to NEMA NU2-2007. The recovery coefficient (RC), non-uniformity, spill-over ratio (SOR), and PET imaging of the Micro Deluxe Phantom were assessed to compare image quality of B-TPTV PET with that of the microPET R4. When True X reconstruction was used, spatial resolution was <3.65 mm with warm background activity. % contrast and % BV with True X reconstruction were higher than those with the OSEM reconstruction algorithm without PSF modeling. In addition, the RC with True X reconstruction was higher than that with the FBP method and the OSEM without PSF modeling method on the microPET R4. The non-uniformity with True X reconstruction was higher than that with FBP and OSEM without PSF modeling on microPET R4. SOR with True X reconstruction was better than that with FBP or OSEM without PSF modeling on the microPET R4. This study assessed the performance of the True X reconstruction. Spatial resolution with True X reconstruction was improved by 45 % and its % contrast was significantly improved compared to those with the conventional OSEM without PSF modeling reconstruction algorithm. The noise level was higher than that with the other reconstruction algorithm. Therefore, True X reconstruction should be used with caution when quantifying PET data.

Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment for the Hypothetical PDC17 Impact Exercise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan

2017-01-01

Performing impact risk assessment for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC17) hypothetical impact exercise, to take place at the PDC17 conference, May 15-20, 2017. Impact scenarios and trajectories are developed and provided by NASA's Near Earth Objects Office at JPL (Paul Chodas). These results represent purely hypothetical impact scenarios, and do not reflect any known asteroid threat. Risk assessment was performed using the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model developed by the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) at NASA Ames Research Center. This presentation includes sample results that may be presented or used in discussions during the various stages of the impact exercisecenter dot Some cases represent alternate scenario options that may not be used during the actual impact exercise at the PDC17 conference. Updates to these initial assessments and/or additional scenario assessments may be performed throughout the impact exercise as different scenario options unfold.

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less

Validation of an organizational communication climate assessment toolkit.

PubMed

Wynia, Matthew K; Johnson, Megan; McCoy, Thomas P; Griffin, Leah Passmore; Osborn, Chandra Y

2010-01-01

Effective communication is critical to providing quality health care and can be affected by a number of modifiable organizational factors. The authors performed a prospective multisite validation study of an organizational communication climate assessment tool in 13 geographically and ethnically diverse health care organizations. Communication climate was measured across 9 discrete domains. Patient and staff surveys with matched items in each domain were developed using a national consensus process, which then underwent psychometric field testing and assessment of domain coherence. The authors found meaningful within-site and between-site performance score variability in all domains. In multivariable models, most communication domains were significant predictors of patient-reported quality of care and trust. The authors conclude that these assessment tools provide a valid empirical assessment of organizational communication climate in 9 domains. Assessment results may be useful to track organizational performance, to benchmark, and to inform tailored quality improvement interventions.

Validating workplace performance assessments in health sciences students: a case study from speech pathology.

PubMed

McAllister, Sue; Lincoln, Michelle; Ferguson, Allison; McAllister, Lindy

2013-01-01

Valid assessment of health science students' ability to perform in the real world of workplace practice is critical for promoting quality learning and ultimately certifying students as fit to enter the world of professional practice. Current practice in performance assessment in the health sciences field has been hampered by multiple issues regarding assessment content and process. Evidence for the validity of scores derived from assessment tools are usually evaluated against traditional validity categories with reliability evidence privileged over validity, resulting in the paradoxical effect of compromising the assessment validity and learning processes the assessments seek to promote. Furthermore, the dominant statistical approaches used to validate scores from these assessments fall under the umbrella of classical test theory approaches. This paper reports on the successful national development and validation of measures derived from an assessment of Australian speech pathology students' performance in the workplace. Validation of these measures considered each of Messick's interrelated validity evidence categories and included using evidence generated through Rasch analyses to support score interpretation and related action. This research demonstrated that it is possible to develop an assessment of real, complex, work based performance of speech pathology students, that generates valid measures without compromising the learning processes the assessment seeks to promote. The process described provides a model for other health professional education programs to trial.

Model depicting aspects of audit and feedback that impact physicians' acceptance of clinical performance feedback.

PubMed

Payne, Velma L; Hysong, Sylvia J

2016-07-13

Audit and feedback (A&F) is a strategy that has been used in various disciplines for performance and quality improvement. There is limited research regarding medical professionals' acceptance of clinical-performance feedback and whether feedback impacts clinical practice. The objectives of our research were to (1) investigate aspects of A&F that impact physicians' acceptance of performance feedback; (2) determine actions physicians take when receiving feedback; and (3) determine if feedback impacts physicians' patient-management behavior. In this qualitative study, we employed grounded theory methods to perform a secondary analysis of semi-structured interviews with 12 VA primary care physicians. We analyzed a subset of interview questions from the primary study, which aimed to determine how providers of high, low and moderately performing VA medical centers use performance feedback to maintain and improve quality of care, and determine perceived utility of performance feedback. Based on the themes emergent from our analysis and their observed relationships, we developed a model depicting aspects of the A&F process that impact feedback acceptance and physicians' patient-management behavior. The model is comprised of three core components - Reaction, Action and Impact - and depicts elements associated with feedback recipients' reaction to feedback, action taken when feedback is received, and physicians modifying their patient-management behavior. Feedback characteristics, the environment, external locus-of-control components, core values, emotion and the assessment process induce or deter reaction, action and impact. Feedback characteristics (content and timeliness), and the procedural justice of the assessment process (unjust penalties) impact feedback acceptance. External locus-of-control elements (financial incentives, competition), the environment (patient volume, time constraints) and emotion impact patient-management behavior. Receiving feedback generated intense emotion within physicians. The underlying source of the emotion was the assessment process, not the feedback. The emotional response impacted acceptance, impelled action or inaction, and impacted patient-management behavior. Emotion intensity was associated with type of action taken (defensive, proactive, retroactive). Feedback acceptance and impact have as much to do with the performance assessment process as it does the feedback. In order to enhance feedback acceptance and the impact of feedback, developers of clinical performance systems and feedback interventions should consider multiple design elements.

An Instrument for Measuring Performance in Geometry Based on the Van Hiele Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sánchez-García, Ana B.; Cabello, Ana Belén

2016-01-01

In this paper we present the process of constructing a test for assessing student performance in geometry corresponding to the first year of Secondary Education. The main goal was to detect student errors in the understanding of geometry in order to develop a proposal according to the Van Hiele teaching model, explained in this paper. Our research…

The Effects of a Flipped Classroom Model of Instruction on Students' Performance and Attitudes towards Chemistry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olakanmi, Eunice Eyitayo

2017-01-01

This study establishes the effects of a flipped classroom model of instruction on academic performance and attitudes of 66 first-year secondary school students towards chemistry. A pre-test and post-test experimental design was employed to assign students randomly into either the experimental or control group. In order to assess the suitability of…

An Instructional Design Model with the Cultivating Research-Based Learning Strategies for Fostering Teacher Students' Creative Thinking Abilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khuana, Khwanchai; Khuana, Tanthip; Santiboon, Toansakul

2017-01-01

Designing the instructional model with the innovative the "Research-Based Learning Strategy Lesson Plans" of the effectiveness of the processing performance and the resulting performance (E1/E2) with the IOC value determining standardized criteria of 80/80 were developed. Students' perceptions were assessed with the 30-item…