A knowledge-based approach to estimating the magnitude and spatial patterns of potential threats to soil biodiversity.

PubMed

Orgiazzi, Alberto; Panagos, Panos; Yigini, Yusuf; Dunbar, Martha B; Gardi, Ciro; Montanarella, Luca; Ballabio, Cristiano

2016-03-01

Because of the increasing pressures exerted on soil, below-ground life is under threat. Knowledge-based rankings of potential threats to different components of soil biodiversity were developed in order to assess the spatial distribution of threats on a European scale. A list of 13 potential threats to soil biodiversity was proposed to experts with different backgrounds in order to assess the potential for three major components of soil biodiversity: soil microorganisms, fauna, and biological functions. This approach allowed us to obtain knowledge-based rankings of threats. These classifications formed the basis for the development of indices through an additive aggregation model that, along with ad-hoc proxies for each pressure, allowed us to preliminarily assess the spatial patterns of potential threats. Intensive exploitation was identified as the highest pressure. In contrast, the use of genetically modified organisms in agriculture was considered as the threat with least potential. The potential impact of climate change showed the highest uncertainty. Fourteen out of the 27 considered countries have more than 40% of their soils with moderate-high to high potential risk for all three components of soil biodiversity. Arable soils are the most exposed to pressures. Soils within the boreal biogeographic region showed the lowest risk potential. The majority of soils at risk are outside the boundaries of protected areas. First maps of risks to three components of soil biodiversity based on the current scientific knowledge were developed. Despite the intrinsic limits of knowledge-based assessments, a remarkable potential risk to soil biodiversity was observed. Guidelines to preliminarily identify and circumscribe soils potentially at risk are provided. This approach may be used in future research to assess threat at both local and global scale and identify areas of possible risk and, subsequently, design appropriate strategies for monitoring and protection of soil biota. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impacts of uncertainty and variability in groundwater-driven health risk assessment. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.

2010-12-01

Potential human health risk from contaminated groundwater is becoming an important, quantitative measure used in management decisions in a range of applications from Superfund to CO2 sequestration. Quantitatively assessing the potential human health risks from contaminated groundwater is challenging due to the many coupled processes, uncertainty in transport parameters and the variability in individual physiology and behavior. Perspective on human health risk assessment techniques will be presented and a framework used to predict potential, increased human health risk from contaminated groundwater will be discussed. This framework incorporates transport of contaminants through the subsurface from source to receptor and health risks to individuals via household exposure pathways. The subsurface is shown subject to both physical and chemical heterogeneity which affects downstream concentrations at receptors. Cases are presented where hydraulic conductivity can exhibit both uncertainty and spatial variability in addition to situations where hydraulic conductivity is the dominant source of uncertainty in risk assessment. Management implications, such as characterization and remediation will also be discussed.

A GIS-based approach for comparative analysis of potential fire risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ying; Hu, Lieqiu; Liu, Huiping

2007-06-01

Urban fires are one of the most important sources of property loss and human casualty and therefore it is necessary to assess the potential fire risk with consideration of urban community safety. Two evaluation models are proposed, both of which are integrated with GIS. One is the single factor model concerning the accessibility of fire passage and the other is grey clustering approach based on the multifactor system. In the latter model, fourteen factors are introduced and divided into four categories involving security management, evacuation facility, construction resistance and fire fighting capability. A case study on campus of Beijing Normal University is presented to express the potential risk assessment models in details. A comparative analysis of the two models is carried out to validate the accuracy. The results are approximately consistent with each other. Moreover, modeling with GIS promotes the efficiency the potential risk assessment.

Implementation of health and safety management system to reduce hazardous potential in PT.XYZ Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widodo, L.; Adianto; Sartika, D. I.

2017-12-01

PT. XYZ is a large automotive manufacturing company that manufacture, assemble as well as a car exporter. The other products are spare parts, jig and dies. PT. XYZ has long been implementing the Occupational Safety and Health Management System (OSHMS) to reduce the potential hazards that cause work accidents. However, this does not mean that OSHMS that has been implemented does not need to be upgraded and improved. This is due to the potential danger caused by work is quite high. This research was conducted in Sunter 2 Plant where its production activities have a high level of potential hazard. Based on Hazard Identification risk assessment, Risk Assessment, and Risk Control (HIRARC) found 10 potential hazards in Plant Stamping Production, consisting of 4 very high risk potential hazards (E), 5 high risk potential hazards (H), and 1 moderate risk potential hazard (M). While in Plant Casting Production found 22 potential hazards findings consist of 7 very high risk potential hazards (E), 12 high risk potential hazards (H), and 3 medium risk potential hazards (M). Based on the result of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), the main priority is the high risk potential hazards (H) and very high risk potential hazards (E). The proposed improvement are to make the visual display of the importance of always using the correct Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), establishing good working procedures, conducting OSH training for workers on a regular basis, and continuing to conduct safety campaigns.

A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA released the final report entitled, A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental Exposures to Children, which examines the impact of potential exposures during developmental lifestages and subsequent lifestages, while emphasizing the iterative nature of the analysis phase with a multidisciplinary team. Major findings and conclusions: This report outlines the framework in which mode of action(s) (MOA) can be considered across life stages. The framework is based upon existing approaches adopted in the Framework on Cumulative Risk Assessment and identifies existing guidance, guidelines and policy papers that relate to children's health risk assessment. It emphasizes the importance of an iterative approach between hazard, dose response, and exposure analyses. In addition, it includes discussion of principles for weight of evidence consideration across life stages for the hazard characterization database.Key science/assessment issues:This framework addresses the questions of why and how an improved children's health risk assessment will strengthen the overall risk assessment process across the Agency. This approach improves the scientific explanation of children's risk and will add value by: 1) providing for a more complete evaluation of the potential for vulnerability at different life stages, including a focus on the underlying biological events and critical developmental periods for incorporating MOA considerations; 2) evaluating of the potential fo

The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

PubMed

Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

2011-08-01

The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

Assessments of levels, potential ecological risk, and human health risk of heavy metals in the soils from a typical county in Shanxi Province, China.

PubMed

Pan, Libo; Ma, Jin; Hu, Yu; Su, Benying; Fang, Guangling; Wang, Yue; Wang, Zhanshan; Wang, Lei; Xiang, Bao

2016-10-01

A total of 128 surface soil samples were collected, and eight heavy metals, including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Zn, and Hg, were analyzed for their concentrations, potential ecological risks, and human health risks. The mean concentrations of these eight metals were lower than the soil environmental quality standards in China, while they were slightly higher than the background values in Shanxi Province. The enrichment factor, coefficient variation, and potential ecological risk index were used to assess the pollution and eco-risk level of heavy metals, among which, Cd and Hg showed higher pollution levels and potential risks than the others in the studied area. Moreover, multivariate geostatistical analysis suggested that Hg originated mainly from point sources such as industrial emissions, while agricultural activity is the predominant factor for Cd. The human health risk assessment indicated that non-carcinogenic values were below the threshold values. The total carcinogenic risks due to As, Cr, and Ni were within the acceptable range for adults, while for children, they were higher than the threshold value (1.0E-04), indicating that children are facing higher threat to heavy metals in soils. These results provide basic information on heavy metal pollution control and human health risk assessment management in the study regions.

Marine pollution in the Libyan coastal area: Environmental and risk assessment.

PubMed

Bonsignore, Maria; Salvagio Manta, Daniela; Al-Tayeb Sharif, Ehab A; D'Agostino, Fabio; Traina, Anna; Quinci, Enza Maria; Giaramita, Luigi; Monastero, Calogera; Benothman, Mohamed; Sprovieri, Mario

2018-03-01

A comprehensive assessment of the potential adverse effects on environment and human health generated by the inputs of chemicals from the most important Libyan petrochemical plant is presented. Ecotoxicological risk associated with the presence of As, Hg, Ni, Zn and PAHs in marine sediments is low or moderate, with a probability of toxicity for ecosystem <9% and <20% for heavy metals and PAHs respectively. However, surface sediments result strongly enriched in Hg and As of anthropogenic origin. Investigation of metals in fish allowed to assess potential risks for human populations via fish intake. Target hazard quotients values indicate potential risk associated to toxic metals exposure by fish consumption and lifetime cancer risk (TR) values highlight a potential carcinogen risk associated to As intake. Noteworthy, the presented results provide an unprecedented environmental dataset in an area where the availability of field data is very scant, for a better understanding of anthropogenic impacts at Mediterranean scale. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental risk assessment of a genetically-engineered microorganism: Erwinia carotovora

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orvos, D.R.

1989-01-01

Environmental use of genetically-engineered microorganisms (GEMs) has raised concerns over potential ecological impact. Development of microcosm systems useful in preliminary testing for risk assessment will provide useful information for predicting potential structural, functional, and genetic effects of GEM release. This study was executed to develop techniques that may be useful in risk assessment and microbial ecology, to ascertain which parameters are useful in determining risk and to predict risk from releasing an engineered strain of Erwinia carotovora. A terrestrial microcosm system for use in GEM risk assessment studies was developed for use in assessing alterations of microbial structure and functionmore » that may be caused by introducing the engineered strain of E. carotovora. This strain is being developed for use as a biological control agent for plant soft rot. Parameters that were monitored included survival and intraspecific competition of E. carotovora, structural effects upon both total bacterial populations and numbers of selected bacterial genera, effects upon activities of dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase, effects upon soil nutrients, and potential for gene transfer into or out of the engineered strain.« less

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu; Fink-Gremmels, J.

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chainmore » (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.« less

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

PubMed Central

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

RISK ASSESSMENT AND LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT (LCIA) FOR HUMAN HEALTH CANCEROUS AND NONCANCEROUS EMISSIONS: INTEGRATED AND COMPLEMENTARY WITH CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE USEPA

EPA Science Inventory

The historical parallels, complementary roles, and potential for integration of human health risk assessment (RA) and Life-Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) are explored. Previous authors have considered the comparison of LCA and risk assessment recognizing the inherent differences ...

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: An assessment of the risk to Douglas commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schjelderup, H. C.; Cook, C. Q.; Snyder, E.; Henning, B.; Hosford, J.; Gilles, D. L.; Swanstrom, C. W.

1980-01-01

The potential hazard to electrical and electronic devices should there be a release of free carbon fibers due to an aircraft crash and fire was assessed. Exposure and equipment sensitivity data were compiled for a risk analysis. Results are presented in the following areas: DC-9/DC-10 electrical/electronic component characterization; DC-9 and DC-10 fiber transfer functions; potential for transport aircraft equipment exposure to carbon fibers; and equipment vulnerability assessment. Results reflect only a negligible increase in risk for the DC-9 and DC-10 fleets either now or projected to 1993.

GM Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Ecological risk assessment and carcinogen health risk assessment of arsenic in soils from part area of the Daye City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, F.; Wang, T.; Xiao, M. S.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Z. Y.

2018-01-01

Soils in four sampling sites from part area of the Daye City were collected. Concentrations of arsenic (As) in soils in sampling sites were detected by Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry, ecological risk was calculated by potential ecological risk index (RI) and human health risk was measured by human health risk assessment model established by USEPA. The results showed that, the total content of As in soils in Daye was decreased in the order of S4 (66.58 mg/kg)>S2 (44.73 mg/kg)>S3 (34.86 mg/kg) >S1 (21.84 mg/kg), concentrations in all sampling sites were higher than background values of Hubei Province. The potential risk and human health risk were decreased in the order of S4>S2>S3>S1 and S4>S3>S2>S1, respectively. Specially, S1, S2 and S3 were at low potential ecological risk while S4 was at moderate ecological risk. But there was no carcinogenic risk for human exposure to As in soil in Daye.

Application of Advanced Sensor Technology to DoD Soil Vapor Intrusion Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

that would be more representative of exposure levels and provide for a more accurate assessment of potential risk due to VI. In a study at a...concerns has been evolving in recent years, in an effort to better assess potential risks to human health and the environment and to mitigate or...has issued a directive concerning the hierarchy of human health toxicity values used for risk assessments (USEPA, 2003). In this hierarchy, USEPA

BIG DARBY CREEK WATERSHED

EPA Science Inventory

What is an ecological risk assessment?

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

Middle Platte River Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

What is an ecological risk assessment?

An ecological risk assessment evaluates the potential adverse effects of human activities on the plants and animals that make up ecosystems. The risk assessment process provides a way to develop, organize and present sc...

WORKSHOP ON APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS TO BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Biologically-based pharmacokinetic models are being increasingly used in the risk assessment of environmental chemicals. These models are based on biological, mathematical, statistical and engineering principles. Their potential uses in risk assessment include extrapolation betwe...

Neuroprediction, Violence, and the Law: Setting the Stage.

PubMed

Nadelhoffer, Thomas; Bibas, Stephanos; Grafton, Scott; Kiehl, Kent A; Mansfield, Andrew; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Gazzaniga, Michael

2012-04-01

In this paper, our goal is to (a) survey some of the legal contexts within which violence risk assessment already plays a prominent role, (b) explore whether developments in neuroscience could potentially be used to improve our ability to predict violence, and (c) discuss whether neuropredictive models of violence create any unique legal or moral problems above and beyond the well worn problems already associated with prediction more generally. In "Violence Risk Assessment and the Law", we briefly examine the role currently played by predictions of violence in three high stakes legal contexts: capital sentencing ("Violence Risk Assessment and Capital Sentencing"), civil commitment hearings ("Violence Risk Assessment and Civil Commitment"), and "sexual predator" statutes ("Violence Risk Assessment and Sexual Predator Statutes"). In "Clinical vs. Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment", we briefly examine the distinction between traditional clinical methods of predicting violence and more recently developed actuarial methods, exemplified by the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) software created by John Monahan and colleagues as part of the MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence [1]. In "The Neural Correlates of Psychopathy", we explore what neuroscience currently tells us about the neural correlates of violence, using the recent neuroscientific research on psychopathy as our focus. We also discuss some recent advances in both data collection ("Cutting-Edge Data Collection: Genetically Informed Neuroimaging") and data analysis ("Cutting-Edge Data Analysis: Pattern Classification") that we believe will play an important role when it comes to future neuroscientific research on violence. In "The Potential Promise of Neuroprediction", we discuss whether neuroscience could potentially be used to improve our ability to predict future violence. Finally, in "The Potential Perils of Neuroprediction", we explore some potential evidentiary ("Evidentiary Issues"), constitutional ("Constitutional Issues"), and moral ("Moral Issues") issues that may arise in the context of the neuroprediction of violence.

Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Ronald Fournier; Gericke Cook; Jean J. Turgeon

2017-01-01

Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical...

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia (External Review Draft ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of ammonia that will appear in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

IRIS Toxicological Review of n-Butanol (External Review Draft ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of n-butanol that will appear in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for n-butanol. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Risk assessment and the prevention of radicalization from nonviolence into terrorism.

PubMed

Sarma, Kiran M

2017-04-01

This article considers the challenges associated with completing risk assessments in countering violent extremism. In particular, it is concerned with risk assessment of those who come to the attention of government and nongovernment organizations as being potentially on a trajectory toward terrorism and where there is an obligation to consider the potential future risk that they may pose. Risk assessment in this context is fraught with difficulty, primarily due to the variable nature of terrorism, the low base-rate problem, and the dearth of strong evidence on relevant risk and resilience factors. Statistically, this will lead to poor predictive value. Ethically, it can lead to the labeling of an individual who is not on a trajectory toward violence as being "at risk" of engaging in terrorism and the imposing of unnecessary risk management actions. The article argues that actuarial approaches to risk assessment in this context cannot work. However, it further argues that approaches that help assessors to process and synthesize information in a structured way are of value and are in line with good practice in the broader field of violence risk assessment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Chemical Mixtures and Epidemiologic Fundamentals for Risk Assessment Applications

EPA Science Inventory

Risk management options are increasingly being considered early in the risk assessment process to help scope the considerations and bound the inherent complexities related to potential exposures, risk and future clean-up decisions (including acceptable pollutant levels) related t...

MICROBIOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR LAND APPLICATION OF MUNICIPAL SLUDGE

EPA Science Inventory

Each major option for the disposal/reuse of municipal sludges poses potential risks to human health or the environment because of the microbial contaminants in sludge. Therefore, risk assessment methodology appropriate for pathogen risk evaluation for land application and distrib...

Ecological Risk Assessment Process under the Endangered Species Act

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document provides an overview of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ecological risk assessment process for the evaluation of potential risk to endangered and threatened (listed) species from exposure to pesticides.

Quantification of key long-term risks at CO₂ sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

DOE PAGES

Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; ...

2014-12-31

Risk assessment for geologic CO₂ storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO₂ sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO₂ and brine leakage. The simulation results are alsomore » used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.« less

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

INTERPRETING SPONTANEOUS RENAL LESIONS IN SAFETY AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Interpreting Spontaneous Renal Lesions in Safety and Risk Assessment
Douglas C. Wolf, D.V.M., Ph.D.

Introduction

Risk assessment is a process whereby the potential adverse health effects from exposure to a xenobiotic are predicted after evaluation of the availab...

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

Exposure assessment and risk management of engineered nanoparticles: Investigation in semiconductor wafer processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepard, Michele N.

Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are currently used in hundreds of commercial products and industrial processes, with more applications being investigated. Nanomaterials have unique properties that differ from bulk materials. While these properties may enable technological advancements, the potential risks of ENMs to people and the environment are not yet fully understood. Certain low solubility nanoparticles are more toxic than their bulk material, such that existing occupational exposure limits may not be sufficiently protective for workers. Risk assessments are currently challenging due to gaps in data on the numerous emerging materials and applications as well as method uncertainties and limitations. Chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) processes with engineered nanoparticle abrasives are used for research and commercial manufacturing applications in the semiconductor and related industries. Despite growing use, no published studies addressed occupational exposures to nanoparticles associated with CMP or risk assessment and management practices for these scenarios. Additional studies are needed to evaluate potential sources of workplace exposure or emission, as well as to help test and refine assessment methods. This research was conducted to: identify the lifecycle stages and potential exposure sources for ENMs in CMP processes; characterize worker exposure; determine recommended engineering controls and compare risk assessment models. The study included workplace air and surface sampling and an evaluation of qualitative risk banding approaches. Exposure assessment results indicated the potential for worker contact with ENMs on workplace surfaces but did not identify nanoparticles readily dispersed in air during work tasks. Some increases in respirable particle concentrations were identified, but not consistently. Measured aerosol concentrations by number and mass were well below current reference values for poorly soluble low toxicity nanoparticles. From application and evaluation of qualitative risk assessment approaches, differences in control banding models and results were identified, although output generally agreed with conclusions from air sampling as to whether an upgrade in site engineering controls was recommended. This research helped to improve understanding of potential worker exposures to ENMs in CMP processes, as well as the methods for risk assessment and management of metal oxide nanoparticles in occupational environments.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta’s biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as ‘extremely invasive’, with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is ‘extremely invasive’ with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is ‘highly invasive’ with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change. PMID:27768758

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GENOMICS ON EPA REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Gallagher, Kathryn and William Benson. In press. Potential Impacts of Genomics on EPA Regulatory and Risk Assessment (Abstract). To be presented at the EPA Science Forum: Healthy Communities and Ecosystems, 1-3 June 2004, Washington, DC. 1 p. (ERL,GB R991).

Advances in ge...

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF GENOMICS FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS AT EPA

EPA Science Inventory

Benson, W.H., K. Gallagher and K. Dearfield. In press. Potential Implications of Genomics for Regulatory and Risk Assessment Applications at EPA (Abstract). To be presented at the SETAC Fourth World Congress, 14-18 November 2004, Portland, OR. 1 p. (ERL,GB R1002).

Advance...

Assessment of soil heavy metals for eco-environment and human health in a rapidly urbanization area of the upper Yangtze Basin.

PubMed

Jia, Zhongmin; Li, Siyue; Wang, Li

2018-02-19

Soil pollution with heavy metals (HMs) has been attracting more and more interests, however, assessment of eco-environmental and human risks particularly in a rapidly urbanization area (the upper Yangtze) remains limited. Multiple modern indices were firstly performed for complete risk assessment of eco-environment and human health based on a high-spatial-resolution sampling. Averages of HMs were far below grade II threshold level of the Chinese Environmental Quality standards for soils, whereas Cd, As and Hg considerably exceeded the local background values. EF suggested overall moderate enrichments of Cd and Se, resulting in soils uncontaminated to moderately contaminated with them. Potential ecological risk index showed significant differences among Counties that were characterized by moderate risk. However, several sites were moderately to heavily contaminated with As, Cd and Hg by Igeo, resulting in that these sites were categorized as "considerable risk", or "high risk". Moreover, children were more susceptible to the potential health risk irrespective of the carcinogenic or non - carcinogenic risk. There were no significant carcinogenic and non - carcinogenic risks for adults, children however showed significant non - carcinogenic effect. Our first assessment provided important information for policy making to reduce the potential effects of soil contamination on human and eco-environment.

Ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in surface seawater and sediment near the outlet of a zinc factory in Huludao City, Liaoning Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yongliang; Chen, Yanzhen; Wang, Jing; Gong, Yufeng; Liu, Xigang; Mu, Gang; Tian, Hua

2016-11-01

At present, the methods widely applied to assess ecological risk of heavy metals are essentially single-point estimates in which exposure and toxicity data cannot be fully used and probabilities of adverse biological eff ects cannot be achieved. In this study, based on investigation of concentrations of six heavy metals (As, Hg, Pb, Cd, Cu, and Zn) in the surface seawater and sediment near the outlet of a zinc factory, located in Huludao City, Liaoning Province, China, a tiered approach consisting of several probabilistic options was used to refine ecological risk assessment for the individuals. A mixture of various heavy metals was detected in the surface seawater, and potential ecological risk index (PERI) was adopted to assess the potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the surface sediment. The results from all levels of aquatic ecological risk assessment in the tiered framework, ranging from comparison of single eff ects and exposure values to the use of distribution-based Hazard Quotient obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, are consistent with each other. Briefly, aquatic Zn and Cu posed a clear ecological risk, while Cd, Pb, Hg, and As in the water column posed potential risk. As expected, combined ecological risk of heavy metal mixture in the surface seawater was proved significantly higher than the risk caused by any individual heavy metal, calculated using the concept of total equivalent concentration. According to PERI, the severity of pollution by the six heavy metals in the surface sediment decreased in the following sequence: Cd>Hg>As>Pb>Cu>Zn, and the total heavy metals in the sediment posed a very high risk to the marine environment. This study provides a useful mathematical framework for ecological risk assessment of heavy metals.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran (THF) (External ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review and public comment of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of tetrahydrofuran (THF) that when finalized will appear on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for tetrahydrofuran. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

[Spatial distribution and potential ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Yalu River estuary wetland mudflat.

PubMed

Zhang, Chun Peng; Li, Fu Xiang

2016-09-01

Kriging interpolation analysis was conducted with ArcGIS to find out the distribution characteristics of heavy metals concentrations in the surface sediments of the coastal wetland mudflat on the Yalu River estuary, environmental risk index and Hakanson potential ecological risk index were used to assess their extents of pollution in this area.The concentrations of heavy metals in the surface sediments of the study area were at a relatively high level compared with the typical estuarine wetland. The concentration of heavy metals in the east was higher than that in the west, and in the human activity area, the concentration was higher. Cu was found to contribute the most to the pollution status based on environmental risk index method, while Hg and Cd produced the greatest potential ecological harm according to Hankanson Potential ecological risk index method. The average potential ecological risk index (RI) of the Yalu River estuary wetland was 189.30 (ranged from 93.65-507.20), suggesting a moderate ecological risk. However, the potential ecological risk was highest in the east and should be treated as the major heavy metal pollution prevention area in the future.

FIFRA Peer Review: Proposed Risk Assessment Methods Process

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

From September 11-14, 2012, EPA participated in a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) meeting on a proposed pollinator risk assessment framework for determining the potential risks of pesticides to honey bees.

Determining when to conduct a violence risk assessment: Development and initial validation of the Fordham Risk Screening Tool (FRST).

PubMed

Rosenfeld, Barry; Foellmi, Melodie; Khadivi, Ali; Wijetunga, Charity; Howe, Jacqueline; Nijdam-Jones, Alicia; Grover, Shana; Rotter, Merrill

2017-08-01

Techniques to assess violence risk are increasingly common, but no systematic approach exists to help clinicians decide which psychiatric patients are most in need of a violence risk assessment. The Fordham Risk Screening Tool (FRST) was designed to fill this void, providing a structured, systematic approach to screening psychiatric patients and determining the need for further, more thorough violence risk assessment. The FRST was administered to a sample of 210 consecutive admissions to the civil psychiatric units of an urban medical center, 159 of whom were subsequently evaluated using the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20, version 3, to determine violence risk. The FRST showed a high degree of sensitivity (93%) in identifying patients subsequently deemed to be at high risk for violence (based on the Case Prioritization risk rating). The FRST also identified all of the patients (100%) rated high in potential for severe violence (based on the Serious Physical Harm Historical Clinical Risk Management-20, version 3, summary risk rating). Sensitivity was more modest when individuals rated as moderate risk were included as the criterion (rather than only those identified as high risk). Specificity was also moderate, screening out approximately half of all participants as not needing further risk assessment. A systematic approach to risk screening is clearly needed to prioritize psychiatric admissions for thorough risk assessment, and the FRST appears to be a potentially valuable step in that process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Preparing for Euro 2012: developing a hazard risk assessment.

PubMed

Wong, Evan G; Razek, Tarek; Luhovy, Artem; Mogilevkina, Irina; Prudnikov, Yuriy; Klimovitskiy, Fedor; Yutovets, Yuriy; Khwaja, Kosar A; Deckelbaum, Dan L

2015-04-01

Risk assessment is a vital step in the disaster-preparedness continuum as it is the foundation of subsequent phases, including mitigation, response, and recovery. To develop a risk assessment tool geared specifically towards the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Euro 2012. In partnership with the Donetsk National Medical University, Donetsk Research and Development Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics, Donetsk Regional Public Health Administration, and the Ministry of Emergency of Ukraine, a table-based tool was created, which, based on historical evidence, identifies relevant potential threats, evaluates their impacts and likelihoods on graded scales based on previous available data, identifies potential mitigating shortcomings, and recommends further mitigation measures. This risk assessment tool has been applied in the vulnerability-assessment-phase of the UEFA Euro 2012. Twenty-three sub-types of potential hazards were identified and analyzed. Ten specific hazards were recognized as likely to very likely to occur, including natural disasters, bombing and blast events, road traffic collisions, and disorderly conduct. Preventative measures, such as increased stadium security and zero tolerance for impaired driving, were recommended. Mitigating factors were suggested, including clear, incident-specific preparedness plans and enhanced inter-agency communication. This hazard risk assessment tool is a simple aid in vulnerability assessment, essential for disaster preparedness and response, and may be applied broadly to future international events.

Heavy metals distribution and risk assessment in soil from an informal E-waste recycling site in Lagos State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Isimekhai, Khadijah A; Garelick, Hemda; Watt, John; Purchase, Diane

2017-07-01

Informal E-waste recycling can pose a risk to human health and the environment which this study endeavours to evaluate. The distribution of a number of heavy metals in soil from an informal recycling site in the largest market for used and new electronics and electrical equipment in West Africa was investigated. The potential bioavailability of heavy metals, extent of contamination, potential risk due to the recycling activities and impact of external factors such as rainfall were also assessed. The concentrations of all the heavy metals tested were higher in the area where burning of the waste occurred than at the control site, suggesting an impact of the recycling activities on the soil. The order of total metal concentrations was Cu > Pb > Zn > Mn > Ni > Sb > Cr > Cd for both the dry and wet seasons. The total concentrations of Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni and Zn were all significantly higher (p < 0.001) in the dry season than in the wet season. The concentrations of Cu (329-7106 mg kg -1 ), Pb (115-9623 mg kg -1 ) and Zn (508-8178 mg kg -1 ) were consistently higher than international soil guideline values. Using a sequential extraction method, the potential bioavailability of the heavy metals was indicated as Cd > Sb > Zn > Cu > Ni > Pb > Cr. When the risk was assessed using the Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI), Cu was found to contribute the most to the potential ecological risk and Cd gave rise to the greatest concern due to its high toxic-response factor within the study site. Similarly, utilising the Risk Assessment Code (RAC) suggested that Cd posed the most risk in this site. This research establishes a high level of contamination in the study site and underscores the importance of applying the appropriate chemical speciation in risk assessment.

Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

PubMed

McClellan, R O

1994-12-01

This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks.

A pilot application of regional scale risk assessment to the forestry management of the upper Grand Ronde watershed, Oregon

Treesearch

Suzanne M. Anderson; Wayne G. Landis

2012-01-01

An issue in forestry management has been the integration of a variety of different information into a threat analysis or risk assessment. In this instance, regional scale risk assessment was applied to the Upper Grande Ronde watershed in eastern Oregon to examine the potential of risk assessment for use in the management of broad landscapes. The site was a focus of...

Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

2010-08-01

Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Assessing Pesticides under the Endangered Species Act

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s pesticide risk assessment and regulatory processes ensure that protections are in place for all populations of non-target species. We have developed risk assessment procedures to determine potential for harm to individuals of a listed species.

Health impacts of productive conservation in urban transportation. Tapcut technical memorandum No. 27

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rowe, M.D.; Crowther, M.A.

1982-01-01

The literature on health effects of transportation-related pollutants is reviewed and assesses potential health risks of selected energy conservation policies for transportation systems in three representative cities. The conservation policies assessed are specified in other reports. The assessment includes health risks from pollutants emitted by vehicles, from pollutants emitted by industries involved in vehicle manufacturing, and from occupational accidents related to vehicle manufacturing throughout the economic system. Estimated health risk is dominated by ozone and hydrocarbon (benzo(a)pyrene) exposure. Results indicate that health risks from urban transportation systems will either remain constant or decline between 1980 and 2000 under all policiesmore » assessed. No significant change is projected for health risks from toxicants produced in vehicle manufacturing or from risks of occupational accidents throughout the economic system. In general, policies that reduce energy consumption also reduce projected health risks, even when they promote new technologies having potentially significant differences in emission characteristics and manufacturing requirements.« less

Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

2012-04-01

Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

1996-03-22

The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has a program of research in the environmental aspects of oil and gas extraction. This sampling project will characterize the environmental impacts associated with the discharge of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), metals and organics in produced water. This report is part of a series of studies of the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico, supported by the USDOE. These assessments are being coordinated with the field study, using the collected data to perform human health and ecological risk assessments. These assessments will provide input tomore » regulators in the development of guidelines and permits, and to industry in the development and use of appropriate discharge practices. The initial human health and ecological risk assessments consist of conservative screening analyses meant to identify potentially important contaminants, and to eliminate others from further consideration. More quantitative assessments were done for contaminants identified, in the screening analysis, as being of potential concern. Section 2 gives an overview of human health and ecological risk assessment to help put the analyses presented here in perspective. Section 3 provides the hazard assessment portion of the risk assessment, and identifies the important receptors and pathways of concern. Section 3 also outlines the approach taken to the risk assessments presented in the rest of the report. The remaining sections (4 through 9) present the human health and ecological risk assessments for discharges of produced water to open bays in Louisiana.« less

Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

Guidance on Cumulative Risk Assessment of Pesticide Chemicals that have a Common Mechanism of Toxicity

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document provides guidance to OPP scientists for evaluating and estimating the potential human risks associated with such multichemical and multipathway exposures to pesticides. This process is referred to as cumulative risk assessment.

NANOTECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT CASE STUDY WORKSHOPS

EPA Science Inventory

Nanotechnology is expected to present both benefits and risks to human health and the environment. The assessment of risks related to nanotechnology requires information on the potential for exposure to, and adverse effects of, nanomaterials and their by-products. To help ensure...

A novel risk assessment method for landfill slope failure: Case study application for Bhalswa Dumpsite, India.

PubMed

Jahanfar, Ali; Amirmojahedi, Mohsen; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Dubey, Brajesh; McBean, Edward; Kumar, Dinesh

2017-03-01

Rapid population growth of major urban centres in many developing countries has created massive landfills with extraordinary heights and steep side-slopes, which are frequently surrounded by illegal low-income residential settlements developed too close to landfills. These extraordinary landfills are facing high risks of catastrophic failure with potentially large numbers of fatalities. This study presents a novel method for risk assessment of landfill slope failure, using probabilistic analysis of potential failure scenarios and associated fatalities. The conceptual framework of the method includes selecting appropriate statistical distributions for the municipal solid waste (MSW) material shear strength and rheological properties for potential failure scenario analysis. The MSW material properties for a given scenario is then used to analyse the probability of slope failure and the resulting run-out length to calculate the potential risk of fatalities. In comparison with existing methods, which are solely based on the probability of slope failure, this method provides a more accurate estimate of the risk of fatalities associated with a given landfill slope failure. The application of the new risk assessment method is demonstrated with a case study for a landfill located within a heavily populated area of New Delhi, India.

Assessment and application of national environmental databases and mapping tools at the local level to two community case studies.

PubMed

Hammond, Davyda; Conlon, Kathryn; Barzyk, Timothy; Chahine, Teresa; Zartarian, Valerie; Schultz, Brad

2011-03-01

Communities are concerned over pollution levels and seek methods to systematically identify and prioritize the environmental stressors in their communities. Geographic information system (GIS) maps of environmental information can be useful tools for communities in their assessment of environmental-pollution-related risks. Databases and mapping tools that supply community-level estimates of ambient concentrations of hazardous pollutants, risk, and potential health impacts can provide relevant information for communities to understand, identify, and prioritize potential exposures and risk from multiple sources. An assessment of existing databases and mapping tools was conducted as part of this study to explore the utility of publicly available databases, and three of these databases were selected for use in a community-level GIS mapping application. Queried data from the U.S. EPA's National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment, Air Quality System, and National Emissions Inventory were mapped at the appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions for identifying risks of exposure to air pollutants in two communities. The maps combine monitored and model-simulated pollutant and health risk estimates, along with local survey results, to assist communities with the identification of potential exposure sources and pollution hot spots. Findings from this case study analysis will provide information to advance the development of new tools to assist communities with environmental risk assessments and hazard prioritization. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

1995-01-01

Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

Risk assessment for the reintroduction of anadromous salmonids upstream of Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee Dams, Northeastern Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardiman, Jill M.; Breyta, Rachel B.; Haskell, Craig A.; Ostberg, Carl O.; Hatten, James R.; Connolly, Patrick J.

2017-09-12

The Upper Columbia United Tribes (UCUT; Spokane, Colville, Kootenai, Coeur d’Alene, and Kalispel Tribes) and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife want to reintroduce anadromous salmonids to their historical range to restore ecosystem function and lost cultural and spiritual relationships in the upper Columbia River, northeastern Washington. The UCUT contracted with the U.S. Geological Survey to assess risks to resident taxa (existing fish populations in the reintroduction area upstream of Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee Dams) and reintroduced salmon associated with reintroduction. We developed a risk assessment framework for reintroduction of anadromous salmonids upstream of Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee Dams. To accomplish this goal, we applied strategies identified in previous risk assessment frameworks for reintroduction. The risk assessment is an initial step towards an anadromous reintroduction strategy. An initial list of potential donor sources for reintroduction species was developed from previous published sources for Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) donors in the Transboundary Reach of the Columbia River, British Columbia; an ecological risk assessment of upper Columbia River hatchery programs on non-target taxa of concern; and a review of existing hatchery programsDuring two workshops, we further identified and ranked potential donor sources of anadromous Redband Trout (steelhead; O. mykiss), Chinook Salmon, Sockeye Salmon (O. nerka), and Coho Salmon (O. kisutch). We also identified resident fish populations of interest and their primary habitat, location, status, and pathogen concerns to determine the potential risks of reintroduction. Species were deemed of interest based on resource management and potential interactions (that is, genetics, competition, and predation) with introduced species. We developed tables of potential donors by species and characterized potential sources (hatchery and natural origins), populations (individual runs), broodstock management and history, and potential constraints (that is, Endangered Species Act [ESA] listing, Evolutionarily Significant Unit concerns, pathogens, and availability). During the workshops, a group of regional fisheries and topic experts subjectively ranked the relative risks of pathogens, genetic effects, predation, and competition to resident fish and reintroduced salmonids. We assessed the pathogen risk of each potential donor for introducing new pathogens and the increased burden to existing pathogens for resident species upstream of the dams. We considered genetic risks to resident and downstream conspecifics and ecological impacts, including competition for food and space, predator-prey interactions, and ecosystem benefits/impacts. Each reintroduced species donor source was ranked based on abundance/viability (demographic risk to source and feasibility of collection), ancestral/genetic similarity (evolutionary similarity to historical populations), local adaptation (geographic proximity/similarity of source conditions to reintroduction conditions), and life history compatibility (including migration; spawn timing; and relative usage of reservoir, main-stem, or tributary habitats) with environmental conditions in the reintroduction area. We synthesized this information by species for all potential donors, in which an overall score and ranking system was established for decision support in donor selection for reintroduction into the upper Columbia River. We also provided information outside the ranking process by:Identifying predator-prey interactions and competition for food and space among species,Developing a decision support framework for donor selection, andProviding decision support for reintroduction strategies.

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

2016-08-01

Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

Post-exposure prophylaxis against Ebola virus disease with experimental antiviral agents: a case-series of health-care workers.

PubMed

Jacobs, Michael; Aarons, Emma; Bhagani, Sanjay; Buchanan, Ruaridh; Cropley, Ian; Hopkins, Susan; Lester, Rebecca; Martin, Daniel; Marshall, Neal; Mepham, Stephen; Warren, Simon; Rodger, Alison

2015-11-01

Although a few international health-care workers who have assisted in the current Ebola outbreak in west Africa have been medically evacuated for treatment of Ebola virus disease, more commonly they were evacuated after potential accidental exposure to Ebola virus. An urgent need exists for a consensus about the risk assessment of Ebola virus transmission after accidental exposure, and to investigate the use of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). Experimental vaccines have occasionally been used for Ebola PEP, but newly developed experimental antiviral agents have potential advantages. Here, we describe a new method for risk assessment and management of health-care workers potentially exposed to Ebola virus and report the use of experimental antiviral therapies for Ebola PEP in people. We devised a risk assessment and management algorithm for health-care workers potentially exposed to Ebola virus and applied this to eight consecutive individuals who were medically evacuated to the UK from west Africa between January, and March, 2015. PEP with antiviral agents was given to health-care workers assessed to have had substantial risk exposures to Ebola virus. Participants were followed up for 42 days after potential exposure. Four of eight health-care workers were classified as having had low risk exposures and managed by watchful waiting in the community. None of these health-care workers developed Ebola virus disease. The other four health-care workers had intermediate or maximum risk exposures and were given PEP with antiviral agents. PEP was well tolerated with no serious adverse effects. None of these four health-care workers, including two with maximum risk exposures from penetrating injuries with freshly used hollow-bore needles, developed Ebola virus disease. Standardised risk assessment should be adopted and consensus guidelines developed to systematically study the efficacy and safety of PEP with experimental agents. New experimental antiviral treatments are a viable option for PEP against Ebola. Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Methods for assessing the potential health risks of traces of pharmaceuticals in drinking water].

PubMed

Kozísek, Frantisek; Jeligová, Hana

2012-01-01

Increasing consumption of pharmaceuticals leads also to higher release of its non-metabolized residues into environment, mostly hydrosphere. Some of these substances may reach also processed drinking water. Although it is found in traces, it causes public concern as it can represent a non-targeted and unwanted medication. Toxicologists and public health authorities are appealed to assess potential health risks carefully and to communicate the risk adequately to public. As health risks assessment of environmental exposure to pharmaceuticals is a new field of expertise, its methodology has not been unified and standardized yet, but several different procedures have been proposed and used. The paper provides overview of these methods.

Characterizing risk assessments for the development of occupational exposure limits for engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Schulte, P A; Kuempel, E D; Drew, N M

2018-06-01

The commercialization of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) began in the early 2000's. Since then the number of commercial products and the number of workers potentially exposed to ENMs is growing, as is the need to evaluate and manage the potential health risks. Occupational exposure limits (OELs) have been developed for some of the first generation of ENMs. These OELs have been based on risk assessments that progressed from qualitative to quantitative as nanotoxicology data became available. In this paper, that progression is characterized. It traces OEL development through the qualitative approach of general groups of ENMs based primarily on read-across with other materials to quantitative risk assessments for nanoscale particles including titanium dioxide, carbon nanotubes and nanofibers, silver nanoparticles, and cellulose nanocrystals. These represent prototypic approaches to risk assessment and OEL development for ENMs. Such substance-by-substance efforts are not practical given the insufficient data for many ENMs that are currently being used or potentially entering commerce. Consequently, categorical approaches are emerging to group and rank ENMs by hazard and potential health risk. The strengths and limitations of these approaches are described, and future derivations and research needs are discussed. Critical needs in moving forward with understanding the health effects of the numerous EMNs include more standardized and accessible quantitative data on the toxicity and physicochemical properties of ENMs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: Assessment of risk to the Lockheed Model L-1011 commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.

Formaldehyde and LeukemiA: Epidemiology, Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Formaldehyde is widely used in the United States and other countries. Occupational and environmental exposures to formaldehyde may be associated with an increased risk of leukemia in exposed individuals. However, risk assessment of formaldehyde and leukemia has been challenging ...

Biomarkers: Dynamic "Tools" for Health and Safety Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Today informational flow from biomarkers contributes importantly to various types of health effects research, risk assessment and risk management decisions that impact, or have the potential to impact, public health and safety. Therefore, dependent upon the nature of the health r...

Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

PubMed Central

Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

2011-01-01

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit from coordination of information from several different scientific disciplines, including, for example, toxicology, epidemiology, nutrition, neurotoxicology, and the social sciences. PMID:21776216

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

Assessing potential health risks to fish and humans using mercury concentrations in inland fish from across western Canada and the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepak, Jesse M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Tate, Michael T.; Lutz, Michelle A.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Willacker, James J.; Jackson, Allyson K.; Evers, David C.; Wiener, James G.; Pritz, Colleen Flanagan; Davis, Jay

2016-01-01

Fish represent high quality protein and nutrient sources, but Hg contamination is ubiquitous in aquatic ecosystems and can pose health risks to fish and their consumers. Potential health risks posed to fish and humans by Hg contamination in fish were assessed in western Canada and the United States. A large compilation of inland fish Hg concentrations was evaluated in terms of potential health risk to the fish themselves, health risk to predatory fish that consume Hg contaminated fish, and to humans that consume Hg contaminated fish. The probability that a fish collected from a given location would exceed a Hg concentration benchmark relevant to a health risk was calculated. These exceedance probabilities and their associated uncertainties were characterized for fish of multiple size classes at multiple health-relevant benchmarks. The approach was novel and allowed for the assessment of the potential for deleterious health effects in fish and humans associated with Hg contamination in fish across this broad study area. Exceedance probabilities were relatively common at low Hg concentration benchmarks, particularly for fish in larger size classes. Specifically, median exceedances for the largest size classes of fish evaluated at the lowest Hg concentration benchmarks were 0.73 (potential health risks to fish themselves), 0.90 (potential health risk to predatory fish that consume Hg contaminated fish), and 0.97 (potential for restricted fish consumption by humans), but diminished to essentially zero at the highest benchmarks and smallest fish size classes. Exceedances of benchmarks are likely to have deleterious health effects on fish and limit recommended amounts of fish humans consume in western Canada and the United States. Results presented here are not intended to subvert or replace local fish Hg data or consumption advice, but provide a basis for identifying areas of potential health risk and developing more focused future research and monitoring efforts.

Assessing Environmental Risks for Established Invasive Weeds: Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica) and Yellow (L. vulgaris) Toadflax in North America

PubMed Central

Sing, Sharlene E.; Peterson, Robert K. D.

2011-01-01

Environmental risk assessments characterizing potential environmental impacts of exotic weeds are more abundant and comprehensive for potential or new invaders than for widespread and well-established species such as Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica [L.] Mill.) and yellow (L. vulgaris Mill.) toadflax. Specific effects evaluated in our assessment of environmental risks posed by yellow and Dalmatian toadflax included competitive displacement of other plant species, reservoirs of plant disease, animal and insect use, animal toxicity, human toxicity and allergenicity, erosion, and wildfire. Effect and exposure uncertainties for potential impacts of toadflax on human and ecological receptors were rated. Using publicly available information we were able to characterize ecological and human health impacts associated with toadflax, and to identify specific data gaps contributing to a high uncertainty of risk. Evidence supporting perceived negative environmental impacts of invasive toadflax was scarce. PMID:21845161

Assessing environmental risks for established invasive weeds: Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica) and yellow (L. vulgaris) toadflax in North America.

PubMed

Sing, Sharlene E; Peterson, Robert K D

2011-07-01

Environmental risk assessments characterizing potential environmental impacts of exotic weeds are more abundant and comprehensive for potential or new invaders than for widespread and well-established species such as Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica [L.] Mill.) and yellow (L. vulgaris Mill.) toadflax. Specific effects evaluated in our assessment of environmental risks posed by yellow and Dalmatian toadflax included competitive displacement of other plant species, reservoirs of plant disease, animal and insect use, animal toxicity, human toxicity and allergenicity, erosion, and wildfire. Effect and exposure uncertainties for potential impacts of toadflax on human and ecological receptors were rated. Using publicly available information we were able to characterize ecological and human health impacts associated with toadflax, and to identify specific data gaps contributing to a high uncertainty of risk. Evidence supporting perceived negative environmental impacts of invasive toadflax was scarce.

Evolution of human health risk based on EPA modeling for adults and children and pollution level of potentially toxic metals in Rafsanjan road dust: a case study in a semi-arid region, Iran.

PubMed

Aminiyan, Milad Mirzaei; Baalousha, Mohammed; Aminiyan, Farzad Mirzaei

2018-05-08

Humans can be directly exposed to potentially toxic metals in the urban environment via inhalation, ingestion, or dermal contact of dust particles. This paper focuses on human health risk assessment of urban dust contaminated with potentially toxic metals. The levels, sources, and human health risks of nine potentially toxic metals (i.e., As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Co, Mn, and Zn) in 200 road dust samples from Rafsanjan area were investigated. Pollution level was assessed using the pollution index (PI) and geoaccumulation index (I geo ), and the health risk assessment was performed following the methodology described by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The mean concentrations of As, Cu, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Zn, Co, and Mn in road dust were 105.3 ± 5.7, 791.4 ± 29.8, 123.1 ± 9.7, 28.4 ± 3.3, 3.1 ± 0.6, 18.4 ± 1.6, 252.6 ± 8.3, 16.5 ± 1.4, and 525.9 ± 21.0 mg kg -1 , respectively. Thus, the concentrations of potentially toxic metals in road dust were higher than their corresponding natural background values, indicating that all studied potentially toxic metals were impacted by anthropogenic activities. The results of the current study are comparable to other studies conducted on road dust in other cities worldwide. Both of I geo and PI decreased following order Cu > Mn > Pb > As > Zn > Cd > Ni > Cr > Co. Health risk assessment indicated that both of children and adults could be exposed to a potential increased risk of developing cancer over a lifetime from exposure to arsenic through ingestion of the dust samples. However, Pb ingestion can increase cancer risk in children.

Towards the assessment and management of contaminated dredged materials.

PubMed

Agius, Suzanne J; Porebski, Linda

2008-04-01

Environment Canada's Disposal at Sea Programme hosted the Contaminated Dredged Material Management Decisions Workshop in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, on 28-30 November 2006. The workshop brought together over 50 sediment assessment and management experts from academic, industrial, and regulatory backgrounds and charged them with drafting a potential framework to assess contaminated dredged materials and compare the risks of various disposal alternatives. This article summarizes the recommendations made during the workshop concerning the development of sediment assessment tools, the interpretation of these tools, and the essential attributes of a comparative risk assessment process. The major outcomes of the workshop include a strong recommendation to develop a national dredging or sediment management strategy, a potential decision-making framework for the assessment of dredged materials and comparative risk assessment of disposal options, and the expansion of minimum sediment characterization requirements for nonroutine disposal permit applications.

Heavy metal contamination and risk assessment in water, paddy soil, and rice around an electroplating plant.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Zhang, Xue-Hong; Tran, Henry; Wang, Dun-Qiu; Zhu, Yi-Nian

2011-11-01

The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of long-term electroplating industrial activities on heavy metal contamination in agricultural soils and potential health risks for local residents. Water, soil, and rice samples were collected from sites upstream (control) and downstream of the electroplating wastewater outlet. The concentrations of heavy metals were determined by an atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Fractionation and risk assessment code (RAC) were used to evaluate the environmental risks of heavy metals in soils. The health risk index (HRI) and hazard index (HI) were calculated to assess potential health risks to local populations through rice consumption. Hazardous levels of Cu, Cr, and Ni were observed in water and paddy soils at sites near the plant. According to the RAC analysis, the soils showed a high risk for Ni and a medium risk for Cu and Cr at certain sites. The rice samples were primarily contaminated with Ni, followed by Cr and Cu. HRI values >1 were not found for any heavy metal. However, HI values for adults and children were 2.075 and 1.808, respectively. Water, paddy soil, and rice from the studied area have been contaminated by Cu, Cr, and Ni. The contamination of these elements is related to the electroplating wastewater. Although no single metal poses health risks for local residents through rice consumption, the combination of several metals may threaten the health of local residents. Cu and Ni are the key components contributing to the potential health risks.

CREAT Risk Assessment Application for Water Utilities

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

Functional Movement ScreenTM and history of injury in assessment of potential risk of injury among team handball players.

PubMed

Slodownik, Robert; Ogonowska-Slodownik, Anna; Morgulec-Adamowicz, Natalia

2017-09-29

Handball is known to be one of the team sports representing the highest risk of injury. Several investigators have tried to identify injury risk factors in team sports including handball and suggested the need to develop an optimal tool to capture and quantify the potential risk of injury. The aim of the study was to evaluate potential risk of injury among handball players. It was a mixed design study. Handball players from 1st and 2nd division were evaluated (n = 30) using the Functional Movement ScreenTM (FMSTM). Additionally, self-reported history of injury was collected during FMSTM evaluation and after 6 months. Competitive level, training experience, playing position, anthropometric features, symmetry of movement patterns and history of previous injury were analysed while assessing the potential risk of injury. Significant difference between the right and left side (upper limb) was revealed for Shoulder Mobility Test (U = 308.5, p = 0.014). Odds Ratio analysis revealed that having previous injury in the last 12 months is the only statistically significant injury risk factor (OR = 13.71, p = 0.02). Based on this study we can assume that previous injury history reports are crucial in predicting injuries. FMSTM can help in identifying a typical adaptation in throwing shoulder among handball players, but should not be used alone to assess injury risk.

COMPARATIVE POTENCY OF COMPLEX MIXTURES: USE OF SHORT-TERM GENETIC BIOASSAYS IN CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The primary problem regarding the introduction of new energy sources is whether they will alter the mutagenicity, carcinogenicity and potential human cancer risk from combustion emissions. New risk assessment methodologies utilizing data from short-term bioassays, therefore, are ...

Indoor air quality investigation and health risk assessment at correctional institutions.

PubMed

Ofungwu, Joseph

2005-04-01

A comprehensive indoor air-quality (IAQ) investigation was conducted at a state correctional facility in New Jersey, USA with a lengthy history of IAQ problems. The IAQ investigation comprised preliminary indoor air screening using direct readout instrumentation, indoor air/surface wipe sampling and laboratory analysis, as well as a heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system evaluation, and a building envelope survey. In addition to air sampling, a human health risk assessment was performed to evaluate the potential for exposure to site-related air contaminants with respect to the inmate and worker populations. The risk assessment results for the prison facility indicated the potential for significant health risks for the inmate population, possibly reflecting the effects of their confinement and extended exposure to indoor air contaminants, as compared to the prison guard and worker population. Based on the results of the risk assessment, several mitigation measures are recommended to minimize prison population health risks and improve indoor air quality at prison facilities.

Green Jobs: Definition and Method of Appraisal of Chemical and Biological Risks

PubMed Central

Cheneval, Erwan; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Ostiguy, Claude; Lavoie, Jacques; Bourbonnais, Robert; Labrèche, France; Bakhiyi, Bouchra; Zayed, Joseph

2016-01-01

In the wake of sustainable development, green jobs are developing rapidly, changing the work environment. However a green job is not automatically a safe job. The aim of the study was to define green jobs, and to establish a preliminary risk assessment of chemical substances and biological agents for workers in Quebec. An operational definition was developed, along with criteria and sustainable development principles to discriminate green jobs from regular jobs. The potential toxicity or hazard associated with their chemical and biological exposures was assessed, and the workers’ exposure appraised using an expert assessment method. A control banding approach was then used to assess risks for workers in selected green jobs. A double entry model allowed us to set priorities in terms of chemical or biological risk. Among jobs that present the highest risk potential, several are related to waste management. The developed method is flexible and could be adapted to better appraise the risks that workers are facing or to propose control measures. PMID:26718400

Systematic review in chemical risk assessment - A chemical industry perspective.

PubMed

Pease, Camilla K; Gentry, Robinan P

2016-01-01

This commentary provides a perspective from the chemicals industry on the potential usefulness of systematic review approaches in chemical risk assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Report on cancer risks associated with the ingestion of asbestos. DHHS Committee to Coordinate Environmental and Related Programs.

PubMed Central

1987-01-01

This report is an assessment of all available literature that pertains to the potential risk of cancer associated with ingestion of asbestos. It was compiled by a working group to assist policy makers in the Department of Health and Human Services determine if adequate information was available for a definitive risk assessment on this potential problem and evaluate if the weight of evidence was sufficient to prioritize this issue for new policy recommendations. The work group considered the basis for concern over this problem, the body of toxicology experiments, the individual epidemiologic studies which have attempted to investigate this issue, and the articles that discuss components of risk assessment pertaining to the ingestion of asbestos. In the report, the work group concluded: that no direct, definitive risk assessment can be conducted at this time; that further epidemiologic investigations will be very costly and only possess sufficient statistical power to detect relatively large excesses in cancers related to asbestos ingestion; and that probably the most pertinent toxicologic experiments relate to resolving the differences in how inhaled asbestos, which is eventually swallowed, is biologically processed by humans, compared to how ingested asbestos is processed. The work group believes that the cancer risk associated with asbestos ingestion should not be perceived as one of the most pressing potential public health hazards facing the nation. However, the work group does not believe that information was sufficient to assess the level of cancer risk associated with the ingestion and therefore, this potential hazard should not be discounted, and ingestion exposure to asbestos should be eliminated whenever possible. PMID:3304998

A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

2013-01-01

Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Englhardt, Johanna; Boekhorst, Ellen; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale. M. Andres Diaz-Loaiza (1), Johanna Englhardt (1), Ellen de Boekhorst (1), Philip J. Ward (1) and Jeroen Aerts (1) (1) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. andres.diazloaiza@vu.nl Floods are one of the most dangerous natural disasters for humanity, affecting many people every year. Quantitative risk models on a global scale are nowadays available tools for institutions and actors in charge of risk management in order to plan possible mitigation measures in case of flood risk events. Many of these models have been focus on potential economic damage, population and GDP exposure, but the potential casualties assessment has been left aside. This is partially due to the complexity of the problem itself, in which several variables like the age of a pedestrian (drag/exposed to a flood event), or his weight and swimming experience can be decisive for the complete understanding of the problem. In the present work is presented the advances for the development of a methodology in order to include in the GLOFRIS model a new indicator in case of flood risk events. Preliminary analysis relating the GDP with the potential casualties shows that undeveloped countries have more susceptibility to loss of life in case of flood events. This because the GDP indicator evidences as well the protection measures available in a country.

Risk assessment strategies as nanomaterials transition into commercial applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, Mira S.; Gurian, Patrick L.

2012-03-01

Commercial applications of nanomaterials are rapidly emerging in the marketplace. The environmental and human health risks of many nanomaterials remain unknown, and prioritizing how to efficiently assess their risks is essential. As nanomaterials are incorporated into a broader range of commercial products, their potential for environmental release and human exposure not only increases, but also becomes more difficult to model accurately. Emphasis may first be placed on estimating potential environmental exposure based on pertinent physical properties of the nanomaterials. Given that the greatest potential for global environmental impacts results from nanomaterials that are both persistent and toxic, this paper advocates screening first for persistence since it is easier to assess than toxicity. For materials that show potential for persistence, a higher burden of proof of their non-toxicity is suggested before they enter the commercial marketplace whereas a lower burden of proof may be acceptable for nanomaterials that are less persistent.

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

PubMed

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GPS disruptions : efforts to assess risks to critical infrastructure and coordinate agency actions should be enhanced.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

To assess the risks and potential effects from disruptions in the Global : Positioning System (GPS) on critical infrastructure, the Department of Homeland : Security (DHS) published the GPS National Risk Estimate (NRE) in 2012. In : doing so, DHS con...

Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

Spreadsheet Assessment Tool v. 2.4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, David J.; Martinez, Ruben

2016-03-03

The Spreadsheet Assessment Tool (SAT) is an easy to use, blast assessment tool that is intended to estimate the potential risk due to an explosive attack on a blood irradiator. The estimation of risk is based on the methodology, assumptions, and results of a detailed blast effects assessment study that is summarized in Sandia National Laboratories Technical Report SAND2015-6166. Risk as defined in the report and as used in the SAT is: "The potential risk of creating an air blast-induced vent opening at a buildings envelope surface". Vent openings can be created at a buildings envelope through the failure ofmore » an exterior building component—like a wall, window, or door—due to an explosive sabotage of an irradiator within the building. To estimate risk, the tool requires that users obtain and input information pertaining to the building's characteristics and the irradiator location. The tool also suggests several prescriptive mitigation strategies that can be considered to reduce risk. Given the variability in civilian building construction practices, the input parameters used by this tool may not apply to all buildings being assessed. The tool should not be used as a substitute for engineering judgment. The tool is intended for assessment purposes only.« less

Bioavailability of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and their Potential Application in Eco-risk Assessment and Source Apportionment in Urban River Sediment

PubMed Central

Yang, Xunan; Yu, Liuqian; Chen, Zefang; Xu, Meiying

2016-01-01

Traditional risk assessment and source apportionment of sediments based on bulk polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) can introduce biases due to unknown aging effects in various sediments. We used a mild solvent (hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin) to extract the bioavailable fraction of PAHs (a-PAHs) from sediment samples collected in Pearl River, southern China. We investigated the potential application of this technique for ecological risk assessments and source apportionment. We found that the distribution of PAHs was associated with human activities and that the a-PAHs accounted for a wide range (4.7%–21.2%) of total-PAHs (t-PAHs), and high risk sites were associated with lower t-PAHs but higher a-PAHs. The correlation between a-PAHs and the sediment toxicity assessed using tubificid worms (r = −0.654, P = 0.021) was greater than that from t-PAH-based risk assessment (r = −0.230, P = 0.472). Moreover, the insignificant correlation between a-PAH content and mPEC-Q of low molecular weight PAHs implied the potiential bias of t-PAH-based risk assessment. The source apportionment from mild extracted fractions was consistent across different indicators and was in accordance with typical pollution sources. Our results suggested that mild extraction-based approaches reduce the potential error from aging effects because the mild extracted PAHs provide a more direct indicator of bioavailability and fresher fractions in sediments. PMID:26976450

Pesticide Risk Indicators: Unidentified Inert Ingredients Compromise Their Integrity and Utility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surgan, Michael; Condon, Madison; Cox, Caroline

2010-04-01

Pesticide Risk Indicators (PRIs) are widely used to evaluate and compare the potential health and environmental risks of pesticide use and to guide pest control policies and practices. They are applied to agricultural, landscape and structural pest management by governmental agencies, private institutions and individuals. PRIs typically assess only the potential risks associated with the active ingredients because, with few exceptions, pesticide manufacturers disclose only the identity of the active ingredients which generally comprise only a minor portion of pesticide products. We show that when inert ingredients are identified and assessed by the same process as the active ingredient, the product specific risk can be much greater than that calculated for the active ingredient alone. To maintain transparency in risk assessment, all those who develop and apply PRIs or make decisions based on their output, should clearly disclose and discuss the limitations of the method.

Spatial assessment of the potential risk of avian influenza A virus infection in three raptor species in Japan

PubMed Central

MORIGUCHI, Sachiko; ONUMA, Manabu; GOKA, Koichi

2016-01-01

Avian influenza A, a highly pathogenic avian influenza, is a lethal infection in certain species of wild birds, including some endangered species. Raptors are susceptible to avian influenza, and spatial risk assessment of such species may be valuable for conservation planning. We used the maximum entropy approach to generate potential distribution models of three raptor species from presence-only data for the mountain hawk-eagle Nisaetus nipalensis, northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis and peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus, surveyed during the winter from 1996 to 2001. These potential distribution maps for raptors were superimposed on avian influenza A risk maps of Japan, created from data on incidence of the virus in wild birds throughout Japan from October 2010 to March 2011. The avian influenza A risk map for the mountain hawk-eagle showed that most regions of Japan had a low risk for avian influenza A. In contrast, the maps for the northern goshawk and peregrine falcon showed that their high-risk areas were distributed on the plains along the Sea of Japan and Pacific coast. We recommend enhanced surveillance for each raptor species in high-risk areas and immediate establishment of inspection systems. At the same time, ecological risk assessments that determine factors, such as the composition of prey species, and differential sensitivity of avian influenza A virus between bird species should provide multifaceted insights into the total risk assessment of endangered species. PMID:26972333

Neuroprediction, Violence, and the Law: Setting the Stage

PubMed Central

Bibas, Stephanos; Grafton, Scott; Kiehl, Kent A.; Mansfield, Andrew; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Gazzaniga, Michael

2014-01-01

In this paper, our goal is to (a) survey some of the legal contexts within which violence risk assessment already plays a prominent role, (b) explore whether developments in neuroscience could potentially be used to improve our ability to predict violence, and (c) discuss whether neuropredictive models of violence create any unique legal or moral problems above and beyond the well worn problems already associated with prediction more generally. In “Violence Risk Assessment and the Law”, we briefly examine the role currently played by predictions of violence in three high stakes legal contexts: capital sentencing (“Violence Risk Assessment and Capital Sentencing”), civil commitment hearings (“Violence Risk Assessment and Civil Commitment”), and “sexual predator” statutes (“Violence Risk Assessment and Sexual Predator Statutes”). In “Clinical vs. Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment”, we briefly examine the distinction between traditional clinical methods of predicting violence and more recently developed actuarial methods, exemplified by the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) software created by John Monahan and colleagues as part of the MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence [1]. In “The Neural Correlates of Psychopathy”, we explore what neuroscience currently tells us about the neural correlates of violence, using the recent neuroscientific research on psychopathy as our focus. We also discuss some recent advances in both data collection (“Cutting-Edge Data Collection: Genetically Informed Neuroimaging”) and data analysis (“Cutting-Edge Data Analysis: Pattern Classification”) that we believe will play an important role when it comes to future neuroscientific research on violence. In “The Potential Promise of Neuroprediction”, we discuss whether neuroscience could potentially be used to improve our ability to predict future violence. Finally, in “The Potential Perils of Neuroprediction”, we explore some potential evidentiary (“Evidentiary Issues”), constitutional (“Constitutional Issues”), and moral (“Moral Issues”) issues that may arise in the context of the neuroprediction of violence. PMID:25083168

The relationship between health risks and health and productivity costs among employees at Pepsi Bottling Group.

PubMed

Henke, Rachel M; Carls, Ginger S; Short, Meghan E; Pei, Xiaofei; Wang, Shaohung; Moley, Susan; Sullivan, Mark; Goetzel, Ron Z

2010-05-01

To evaluate relationships between modifiable health risks and costs and measure potential cost savings from risk reduction programs. Health risk information from active Pepsi Bottling Group employees who completed health risk assessments between 2004 and 2006 (N = 11,217) were linked to medical care, workers' compensation, and short-term disability cost data. Ten health risks were examined. Multivariate analyses were performed to estimate costs associated with having high risk, holding demographics, and other risks constant. Potential savings from risk reduction were estimated. High risk for weight, blood pressure, glucose, and cholesterol had the greatest impact on total costs. A one-percentage point annual reduction in the health risks assessed would yield annual per capita savings of $83.02 to $103.39. Targeted programs that address modifiable health risks are expected to produce substantial cost reductions in multiple benefit categories.

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes.

PubMed

Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon J; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias; Dortch, Jason M; Edwards, Laura A; Merad, Myriam

2018-04-15

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent a significant threat in deglaciating environments, necessitating the development of GLOF hazard and risk assessment procedures. Here, we outline a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach that can be used to rapidly identify potentially dangerous lakes in regions without existing tailored GLOF risk assessments, where a range of glacial lake types exist, and where field data are sparse or non-existent. Our MCDA model (1) is desk-based and uses freely and widely available data inputs and software, and (2) allows the relative risk posed by a range of glacial lake types to be assessed simultaneously within any region. A review of the factors that influence GLOF risk, combined with the strict rules of criteria selection inherent to MCDA, has allowed us to identify 13 exhaustive, non-redundant, and consistent risk criteria. We use our MCDA model to assess the risk of 16 extant glacial lakes and 6 lakes that have already generated GLOFs, and found that our results agree well with previous studies. For the first time in GLOF risk assessment, we employed sensitivity analyses to test the strength of our model results and assumptions, and to identify lakes that are sensitive to the criteria and risk thresholds used. A key benefit of the MCDA method is that sensitivity analyses are readily undertaken. Overall, these sensitivity analyses lend support to our model, although we suggest that further work is required to determine the relative importance of assessment criteria, and the thresholds that determine the level of risk for each criterion. As a case study, the tested method was then applied to 25 potentially dangerous lakes in the Bolivian Andes, where GLOF risk is poorly understood; 3 lakes are found to pose 'medium' or 'high' risk, and require further detailed investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cumulative environmental risk in substance abusing women: early intervention, parenting stress, child abuse potential and child development☆

PubMed Central

Schuler, Maureen E.; Black, Maureen M.; Kettinger, Laurie; Harrington, Donna

2011-01-01

Objective To assess the relationship between cumulative environmental risks and early intervention, parenting attitudes, potential for child abuse and child development in substance abusing mothers. Method We studied 161 substance-abusing women, from a randomized longitudinal study of a home based early intervention, who had custody of their children through 18 months. The intervention group received weekly home visits in the first 6 months and biweekly visits from 6 to 18 months. Parenting stress and child abuse potential were assessed at 6 and 18 months postpartum. Children’s mental and motor development (Bayley MDI and PDI) and language development (REEL) were assessed at 6, 12, and 18 months postpartum. Ten maternal risk factors were assessed: maternal depression, domestic violence, nondomestic violence, family size, incarceration, no significant other in home, negative life events, psychiatric problems, homelessness, and severity of drug use. Level of risk was recoded into four categories (2 or less, 3, 4, and 5 or more), which had adequate cell sizes for repeated measures analysis. Data analysis Repeated measures analyses were run to examine how level of risk and group (intervention or control) were related to parenting stress, child abuse potential, and children’s mental, motor and language development over time. Results Parenting stress and child abuse potential were higher for women with five risks or more compared with women who had four or fewer risks; children’s mental, motor, and language development were not related to level of risk. Children in the intervention group had significantly higher scores on the PDI at 6 and 18 months (107.4 vs. 103.6 and 101.1 vs. 97.2) and had marginally better scores on the MDI at 6 and 12 months (107.7 vs. 104.2 and 103.6 vs. 100.1), compared to the control group. Conclusion Compared to drug-abusing women with fewer than five risks, women with five or more risks found parenting more stressful and indicated greater inclination towards abusive and neglectful behavior, placing their infants at increased risk for poor parenting, abuse and neglect. Early home-based intervention in high-risk families may be beneficial to infant development. PMID:14550327

Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks frommore » radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.« less

White Oak Creek Watershed: Melton Valley Area Remedial Investigation Report, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee: Volume 3 Appendix C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This report provides details on the baseline ecological risk assessment conducted in support of the Remedial Investigation (RI) Report for the Melton Valley areas of the White Oak Creek watershed (WOCW). The RI presents an analysis meant to enable the US Department of Energy (DOE) to pursue a series of remedial actions resulting in site cleanup and stabilization. The ecological risk assessment builds off of the WOCW screening ecological risk assessment. All information available for contaminated sites under the jurisdiction of the US Department of Energy`s Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act Federal Facilities Agreement within the White Oakmore » Creek (WOC) RI area has been used to identify areas of potential concern with respect to the presence of contamination posing a potential risk to ecological receptors within the Melton Valley area of the White Oak Creek watershed. The risk assessment report evaluates the potential risks to receptors within each subbasin of the watershed as well as at a watershed-wide scale. The WOC system has been exposed to contaminant releases from Oak Ridge National Laboratory and associated operations since 1943 and continues to receive contaminants from adjacent waste area groupings.« less

Dietary Toxicity Thresholds and Ecological Risks for Birds and Mammals Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

PubMed

Korsman, John C; Schipper, Aafke M; Hendriks, A Jan

2016-10-04

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are commonly used in regulatory procedures and ecological risk assessments. Yet, most toxicity threshold and risk assessment studies are based on invertebrates and fish. In the present study, no observed effect concentrations (NOECs) specific to birds and mammals were used to derive SSDs and corresponding hazardous concentrations for 5% of the species (HC5 values). This was done for 41 individual substances as well as for subsets of substances aggregated based on their toxic Mode of Action (MoA). In addition, potential differences in SSD parameters (mean and standard deviation) were investigated in relation to MoA and end point (growth, reproduction, and survival). The means of neurotoxic and respirotoxic compounds were significantly lower than those of narcotics, whereas no differences were found between end points. The standard deviations of the SSDs were similar across MoA's and end points. Finally, the SSDs obtained were used in a case study by calculating Ecological Risks (ER) and multisubstance Potentially Affected Fractions of species (msPAF) based on 19 chemicals in 10 Northwestern European estuaries and coastal areas. The assessment showed that the risks were all below 2.6 × 10 -2 . However, the calculated risks underestimate the actual risks of chemicals in these areas because the potential impacts of substances that were not measured in the field or for which no SSD was available were not included in the risk assessment. The SSDs obtained can be used in regulatory procedures and for assessing the impacts of contaminants on birds and mammals from fish contaminants monitoring programs.

Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

PubMed

Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

2018-06-01

Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide.

PubMed

Belfrage, Henrik; Strand, Susanne; Storey, Jennifer E; Gibas, Andrea L; Kropp, P Randall; Hart, Stephen D

2012-02-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

A screening-level assessment of the health risks of chronic smoke exposure for wildland firefighters.

PubMed

Booze, Thomas F; Reinhardt, Timothy E; Quiring, Sharon J; Ottmar, Roger D

2004-05-01

A screening health risk assessment was performed to assess the upper-bound risks of cancer and noncancer adverse health effects among wildland firefighters performing wildfire suppression and prescribed burn management. Of the hundreds of chemicals in wildland fire smoke, we identified 15 substances of potential concern from the standpoints of concentration and toxicology; these included aldehydes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, benzene, and respirable particulate matter. Data defining daily exposures to smoke at prescribed burns and wildfires, potential days of exposure in a year, and career lengths were used to estimate average and reasonable maximum career inhalation exposures to these substances. Of the 15 substances in smoke that were evaluated, only benzene and formaldehyde posed a cancer risk greater than 1 per million, while only acrolein and respirable particulate matter exposures resulted in hazard indices greater than 1.0. The estimated upper-bound cancer risks ranged from 1.4 to 220 excess cancers per million, and noncancer hazard indices ranged from 9 to 360, depending on the exposure group. These values only indicate the likelihood of adverse health effects, not whether they will or will not occur. The risk assessment process narrows the field of substances that deserve further assessment, and the hazards identified by risk assessment generally agree with those identified as a concern in occupational exposure assessments.

Pest risk assessment of the importation into the United States of unprocessed Pinus and Abies logs from Mexico

Treesearch

B. M. Tkacz; H. H. Burdsall; G. A. DeNitto; A. Eglitis; J. B. Hanson; J. T. Kliejunas; W. E. Wallner; J. G. O`Brien; E. L. Smith

1998-01-01

The unmitigated pest risk potential for the importation of Pinus and Abies logs from all states of Mexico into the United States was assessed by estimating the probability and consequences of establishment of representative insects and pathogens of concern. Twenty-two individual pest risk assessments were prepared for Pinus logs, twelve dealing with insects and ten...

Pest risk assessment of the importation into the United States of unprocessed Eucalyptus logs and chips from South America

Treesearch

John T. Kliejunas; Harold H. Burdsall; Gregg A. DeNitto; Andris Eglitis; Dennis A. Haugen; William E. Wallner

2001-01-01

In this report, we assess the unmitigated pest risk potential of importing Eucalyptus logs and chips from South America into the United States. To do this, we estimated the likelihood and consequences of introducing representative insects and pathogens of concern. Nineteen individual pest risk assessments were prepared, eleven dealing with insects and eight with...

Assessing and managing breast cancer risk: clinicians' current practice and future needs.

PubMed

Collins, Ian M; Steel, Emma; Mann, G Bruce; Emery, Jon D; Bickerstaffe, Adrian; Trainer, Alison; Butow, Phyllis; Pirotta, Marie; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cuzick, Jack; Hopper, John; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Keogh, Louise A

2014-10-01

Decision support tools for the assessment and management of breast cancer risk may improve uptake of prevention strategies. End-user input in the design of such tools is critical to increase clinical use. Before developing such a computerized tool, we examined clinicians' practice and future needs. Twelve breast surgeons, 12 primary care physicians and 5 practice nurses participated in 4 focus groups. These were recorded, coded, and analyzed to identify key themes. Participants identified difficulties assessing risk, including a lack of available tools to standardize practice. Most expressed confidence identifying women at potentially high risk, but not moderate risk. Participants felt a tool could especially reassure young women at average risk. Desirable features included: evidence-based, accessible (e.g. web-based), and displaying absolute (not relative) risks in multiple formats. The potential to create anxiety was a concern. Development of future tools should address these issues to optimize translation of knowledge into clinical practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fall risk factors analysis based on sample entropy of plantar kinematic signal during stance phase.

PubMed

Shengyun Liang; Huiyu Jia; Zilong Li; Huiqi Li; Xing Gao; Zuchang Ma; Yingnan Ma; Guoru Zhao

2016-08-01

Falls are a multi-causal phenomenon with a complex interaction. The aim of our research is to study the effect of multiple variables for potential risk of falls and construct an elderly fall risk assessment model based on demographics data and gait characteristics. A total of 101 subjects, whom belong to Malianwa Street, aged above 50 years old and participated in questionnaire survey. Participants were classified into three groups (high, medium and low risk group) according to the score of elderly fall risk assessment scale. In addition, the data of ground reaction force (GRF) and ground reaction moment (GRM) was record when they performed walking at comfortable state. The demographic variables, sample entropy of GRF and GRM, and impulse difference of bilateral foot were considered as potential explanatory variables of risk assessment model. Firstly, we investigated whether different groups could present difference in every variable. Statistical differences were found for the following variables: age (p=2.28e-05); impulse difference (p=0.02036); sample entropy of GRF in vertical direction (p=0.0144); sample entropy of GRM in anterior-posterior direction (p=0.0387). Finally, the multiple regression analysis results indicated that age, impulse difference and sample entropy of resultant GRM could identify individuals who had different levels of fall risk. Therefore, those results could potentially be useful in the fall risk assessment and monitor the state of physical function in elderly population.

Fatal and nonfatal risk associated with recycle of D&D-generated concrete

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boren, J.K.; Ayers, K.W.; Parker, F.L.

1997-02-01

As decontamination and decommissioning activities proceed within the U.S. Department of Energy Complex, vast volumes of uncontaminated and contaminated concrete will be generated. The current practice of decontaminating and landfilling the concrete is an expensive and potentially wasteful practice. Research is being conducted at Vanderbilt University to assess the economic, social, legal, and political ramifications of alternate methods of dealing with waste concrete. An important aspect of this research work is the assessment of risk associated with the various alternatives. A deterministic risk assessment model has been developed which quantifies radiological as well as non-radiological risks associated with concrete disposalmore » and recycle activities. The risk model accounts for fatal as well as non-fatal risks to both workers and the public. Preliminary results indicate that recycling of concrete presents potentially lower risks than the current practice. Radiological considerations are shown to be of minor importance in comparison to other sources of risk, with conventional transportation fatalities and injuries dominating. Onsite activities can also be a major contributor to non-fatal risk.« less

Developing ecosystem services-based assessment endpoints for determining ecological risks to estuarine environments

EPA Science Inventory

Current U.S. EPA ecological risk assessment (ERA) guidance defines an assessment endpoint (AE) as an explicit expression of the environmental value that is to be protected, and recommends that AEs are selected based on ecological relevance, susceptibility to known or potential st...

Conditional risk assessment of adolescents’ electronic cigarette perceptions

PubMed Central

Chaffee, Benjamin W.; Gansky, Stuart A.; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie; Couch, Elizabeth T.; Essex, Gwen; Walsh, Margaret M.

2015-01-01

Objectives Adapt an established instrument for measuring adolescents’ cigarette-related perceptions for new application with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). Methods In this exploratory study, 104 male high school students (40% tobacco ever-users) estimated the probability of potential e-cigarette risks (eg, lung cancer) or benefits (eg, look cool). We calculated associations between risk/benefit composite scores, ever-use, and use intention for e-cigarettes and analogously for combustible cigarettes. Results E-cigarette ever-use was associated with lower perceived risks, with adjusted differences versus never-users greater for e-cigarettes than cigarettes. Risk composite score was inversely associated, and benefit score positively associated, with e-cigarette ever-use and use intention. Conclusion Conditional risk assessment characterized adolescents’ perceived e-cigarette risk/benefit profile, with potential utility for risk-perception measurement in larger future studies. PMID:25741686

Tick-Tock Goes the Croc: A High-Density EEG Study of Risk-Reactivity and Binge-Drinking.

PubMed

Kiat, John E; Cheadle, Jacob E

2018-05-31

Links between individual differences in risk processing and high-risk behaviors such as binge drinking have long been the focus of active research. However, investigations in this area almost exclusively utilize decision-making focused paradigms. This emphasis makes it difficult to assess links between risk behaviors and raw risk reactivity independent of decision and feedback processes. A deeper understanding of this association has the potential to shed light on the role of risk reactivity in high-risk behavior susceptibility. To contribute towards this aim, this study utilizes a popular risk-taking game, the crocodile dentist, to assess links between individual differences in decision-free risk-reactivity and reported binge drinking frequency levels. In this task, participants engage in a series of decision-free escalating risk responses. Risk-reactivity was assessed by measuring Late Positive Potential responses towards risk-taking action initiation cues using high-density 256-Channel EEG. The results indicate that, after controlling for overall alcohol consumption frequency, higher rates of reported binge drinking are associated with both increased general risk-taking responsivity and increased risk-reactivity escalation as a function of risk level. These findings highlight intriguing links between risk reactivity and binge drinking frequency, making key contributions in the areas of risk-taking and affective science.

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

2012-09-01

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to different types of accident by trade of works, it helps the concerned safety professionals and parties to plan effective accident prevention measures with reference to the priority of the risk levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of health risks resulting from early-life exposures: Are current chemical toxicity testing protocols and risk assessment methods adequate?

PubMed

Felter, Susan P; Daston, George P; Euling, Susan Y; Piersma, Aldert H; Tassinari, Melissa S

2015-03-01

Abstract Over the last couple of decades, the awareness of the potential health impacts associated with early-life exposures has increased. Global regulatory approaches to chemical risk assessment are intended to be protective for the diverse human population including all life stages. However, questions persist as to whether the current testing approaches and risk assessment methodologies are adequately protective for infants and children. Here, we review physiological and developmental differences that may result in differential sensitivity associated with early-life exposures. It is clear that sensitivity to chemical exposures during early-life can be similar, higher, or lower than that of adults, and can change quickly within a short developmental timeframe. Moreover, age-related exposure differences provide an important consideration for overall susceptibility. Differential sensitivity associated with a life stage can reflect the toxicokinetic handling of a xenobiotic exposure, the toxicodynamic response, or both. Each of these is illustrated with chemical-specific examples. The adequacy of current testing protocols, proposed new tools, and risk assessment methods for systemic noncancer endpoints are reviewed in light of the potential for differential risk to infants and young children.

Potential for Incorporation of Genetic Polymorphism Data in Human Health Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This overview summarizes several EPA assessment publications evaluating the potential impact of genetic polymorphisms in ten metabolizing enzymes on the variability in enzyme function across ethnically diverse populations.

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 2: ranking of potentially contaminated sites.

PubMed

Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Agostini, Paola; Marcomini, Antonio

2011-11-01

Environmental risks are traditionally assessed and presented in non spatial ways although the heterogeneity of the contaminants spatial distributions, the spatial positions and relations between receptors and stressors, as well as the spatial distribution of the variables involved in the risk assessment, strongly influence exposure estimations and hence risks. Taking into account spatial variability is increasingly being recognized as a further and essential step in sound exposure and risk assessment. To address this issue an innovative methodology which integrates spatial analysis and a relative risk approach was developed. The purpose of this methodology is to prioritize sites at regional scale where a preliminary site investigation may be required. The methodology aimed at supporting the inventory of contaminated sites was implemented within the spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of DEgraded land, SYRIADE, and was applied to the case-study of the Upper Silesia region (Poland). The developed methodology and tool are both flexible and easy to adapt to different regional contexts, allowing the user to introduce the regional relevant parameters identified on the basis of user expertise and regional data availability. Moreover, the used GIS functionalities, integrated with mathematical approaches, allow to take into consideration, all at once, the multiplicity of sources and impacted receptors within the region of concern, to assess the risks posed by all contaminated sites in the region and, finally, to provide a risk-based ranking of the potentially contaminated sites. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Potential chemical and microbiological risks on human health from urban wastewater reuse in agriculture. Case study of wastewater effluents in Spain.

PubMed

Muñoz, Ivan; Tomàs, Núria; Mas, Jordi; García-Reyes, Juan Fracisco; Molina-Díaz, Antonio; Fernández-Alba, Amadeo R

2010-05-01

Potential health risks derived from wastewater reuse in agriculture have been evaluated with Risk Assessment modelling techniques, in a case study involving the effluents of two Spanish wastewater treatment plants. One of the plants applies primary and secondary treatment, and the other one applies an additional tertiary treatment. Health risks were assessed on the basis of ingesting contaminated food, due to exposure to: (i) 22 chemical pollutants, namely pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), and priority pollutants included in the European Framework Directive, and (ii) microorganisms, namely enterovirus. Chemical Risk Assessment has been carried out following the European Commission's technical guidelines, while risks from exposure to viruses have been evaluated by means of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, assuming a virus to coliform ratio of 1:10(5). The results of the chemical assessment show that there is a margin of safety above 100 for all substances, with the exception of gemfibrozil, for which the mean margin of safety (MOS) is above 100, but the lower bound of MOS with a 95 % confidence interval lies in the 3-4 range. A MOS under 100 was also found for 2,3,7,8-TCDD in one of the effluents. The assessment of risks from viruses shows a very low probability of infection. The overall results show that risks are lower for the plant applying tertiary treatment, especially concerning microbiological parameters.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran (THF) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is releasing the draft report, Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran, that was distributed to Federal agencies and White House Offices for comment during the Science Discussion step of the IRIS Assessment Development Process. Comments received from other Federal agencies and White House Offices are provided below with external peer review panel comments. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for tetrahydrofuran. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

[Study on ecological risk assessment technology of fluoride pollution from arid oasis soil].

PubMed

Xue, Su-Yin; Li, Ping; Wang, Sheng-Li; Nan, Zhong-Ren

2014-03-01

According to translocation regulation of fluoride in the typical oasis soil-plant system under field, an ecological risk assessment model of fluoride was established, and this model was used to assess ecological risk to fluoride pollution from suburban oasis soils in Baiyin City, which was specifically expressed with the potential ecological risk of bioavailability (ER(bc)) model to assess ecological risk of fluoride pollution in oasis regions. Results showed that the ecological risk indices of fluoride pollution from this region were 1.37-24.81, the level of risk at most sites was high to very high, the average ecological risk index was 11.28, belonged to very high risk. This indicated that in the suburb soil of Baiyin City needs to be concerned about the remediation of fluoride pollution.

Green Jobs: Definition and Method of Appraisal of Chemical and Biological Risks.

PubMed

Cheneval, Erwan; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Ostiguy, Claude; Lavoie, Jacques; Bourbonnais, Robert; Labrèche, France; Bakhiyi, Bouchra; Zayed, Joseph

2016-04-01

In the wake of sustainable development, green jobs are developing rapidly, changing the work environment. However a green job is not automatically a safe job. The aim of the study was to define green jobs, and to establish a preliminary risk assessment of chemical substances and biological agents for workers in Quebec. An operational definition was developed, along with criteria and sustainable development principles to discriminate green jobs from regular jobs. The potential toxicity or hazard associated with their chemical and biological exposures was assessed, and the workers' exposure appraised using an expert assessment method. A control banding approach was then used to assess risks for workers in selected green jobs. A double entry model allowed us to set priorities in terms of chemical or biological risk. Among jobs that present the highest risk potential, several are related to waste management. The developed method is flexible and could be adapted to better appraise the risks that workers are facing or to propose control measures. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Development and evaluation of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey for assessing potential risk and protective factors for disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

PubMed

Shisslak, C M; Renger, R; Sharpe, T; Crago, M; McKnight, K M; Gray, N; Bryson, S; Estes, L S; Parnaby, O G; Killen, J; Taylor, C B

1999-03-01

To describe the development, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey-III (MRFS-III). The MRFS-III was designed to assess a number of potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls. Several versions of the MRFS were pilot tested before the MRFS-III was administered to a sample of 651 4th through 12th- grade girls to establish its psychometric properties. Most of the test-retest reliability coefficients of individual items on the MRFS-III were r > .40. Alpha coefficients for each risk and protective factor domain on the MRFS-III were also computed. The majority of these coefficients were r > .60. High convergent validity coefficients were obtained for specific items on the MRFS-III and measures of self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale) and weight concerns (Weight Concerns Scale). The test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the MRFS-III suggest that it is a useful new instrument to assess potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

Assessing the fate and effects of an insecticidal formulation.

PubMed

de Perre, Chloé; Williard, Karl W J; Schoonover, Jon E; Young, Bryan G; Murphy, Tracye M; Lydy, Michael J

2015-01-01

A 3-yr study was conducted on a corn field in central Illinois, USA, to understand the fate and effects of an insecticidal formulation containing the active ingredients phostebupirim and cyfluthrin. The objectives were to determine the best tillage practice (conventional vs conservation tillage) in terms of grain yields and potential environmental risk, to assess insecticidal exposure using concentrations measured in soil and runoff water and sediments, to compare measured insecticidal concentrations with predicted concentrations from selected risk assessment exposure models, and to calculate toxicity benchmarks from laboratory bioassays performed on reference aquatic and terrestrial nontarget organisms, using individual active ingredients and the formulation. Corn grain yields were not significantly different based on tillage treatment. Similarly, field concentrations of insecticides were not significantly (p > 0.05) different in strip tillage versus conventional tillage, suggesting that neither of the tillage systems would enable greater environmental risk from the insecticidal formulation. Risk quotients were calculated from field concentrations and toxicity data to determine potential risk to nontarget species. The insecticidal formulation used at the recommended rate resulted in soil, sediment, and water concentrations that were potentially harmful to aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, if exposure occurred, with risk quotients up to 34. © 2014 SETAC.

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejduk, M.; Laporte, F.; Moury, M.; Newman, L.; Shepperd, R.

2017-01-01

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Gene panel testing for inherited cancer risk.

PubMed

Hall, Michael J; Forman, Andrea D; Pilarski, Robert; Wiesner, Georgia; Giri, Veda N

2014-09-01

Next-generation sequencing technologies have ushered in the capability to assess multiple genes in parallel for genetic alterations that may contribute to inherited risk for cancers in families. Thus, gene panel testing is now an option in the setting of genetic counseling and testing for cancer risk. This article describes the many gene panel testing options clinically available to assess inherited cancer susceptibility, the potential advantages and challenges associated with various types of panels, clinical scenarios in which gene panels may be particularly useful in cancer risk assessment, and testing and counseling considerations. Given the potential issues for patients and their families, gene panel testing for inherited cancer risk is recommended to be offered in conjunction or consultation with an experienced cancer genetic specialist, such as a certified genetic counselor or geneticist, as an integral part of the testing process. Copyright © 2014 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

Pollution assessment and source apportionment of heavy metals in contaminated site soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Hongbo; Ma, Yan

2018-03-01

Pollution characteristics of heavy metals in soil were analyzed with a typical contaminated site as the case area. The pollution degree of the element was evaluated by indexes of geoaccumulation (Igeo). The potential ecological risk of heavy metals was assessed with potential ecological risk index model. Principal component analysis (PCA) model was simultaneously carried out to identify the main sources of heavy metals in topsoils. The results indicated that: 1. Mean values of 11 kinds of metals in topsoils were greater than respective soil background values, following the order: Zn>Pb>V>Cr>Cu>Ni>Co>As>Sb>Cd>Hg. Heavy metals with a certain accumulation in the research area were significantly affected by external factors. 2. Igeo results showed that Cd and Zn reached strongly polluted degree, while Pb with moderately to strongly polluted, Sb and Hg with moderately polluted, Cu, Co, Ni and Cr with unpolluted to moderately polluted, V and As with un-polluted. 3. Potential ecological risk assessment showed the degree of ecological risk with Cd at very high risk, Hg at high risk, Pb at moderate risk and others at low risk. The comprehensive risk of all the metals was very high. 4. PCA got three main sources with contributions, including industrial activities (44.18%), traffic and burning dust (26.68%) and soil parent materials (12.20%).

Tools to Assess Community-Based Cumulative Risk and Exposures

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple agents and stressors can interact in a given community to adversely affect human and ecological conditions. A cumulative risk assessment (CRA) analyzes, characterizes, and potentially quantifies the effects from multiple stressors, which include chemical agents (for exam...

IMPROVING THE TMDL PROCESS USING WATERSHED RISK ASSESSMENT PRINCIPLES

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. This has many similarities tothe placed-based analuses that are undertaken to develop total maximum daily loads...

Sabotage at Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Purvis, James W.

1999-07-21

Recently there has been a noted worldwide increase in violent actions including attempted sabotage at nuclear power plants. Several organizations, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, have guidelines, recommendations, and formal threat- and risk-assessment processes for the protection of nuclear assets. Other examples are the former Defense Special Weapons Agency, which used a risk-assessment model to evaluate force-protection security requirements for terrorist incidents at DOD military bases. The US DOE uses a graded approach to protect its assets based on risk and vulnerability assessments. The Federal Aviation Administration and Federal Bureau of Investigationmore » conduct joint threat and vulnerability assessments on high-risk US airports. Several private companies under contract to government agencies use formal risk-assessment models and methods to identify security requirements. The purpose of this paper is to survey these methods and present an overview of all potential types of sabotage at nuclear power plants. The paper discusses emerging threats and current methods of choice for sabotage--especially vehicle bombs and chemical attacks. Potential consequences of sabotage acts, including economic and political; not just those that may result in unacceptable radiological exposure to the public, are also discussed. Applicability of risk-assessment methods and mitigation techniques are also presented.« less

Risk analysis of heavy metal concentration in surface waters across the rural-urban interface of the Wen-Rui Tang River, China.

PubMed

Qu, Liyin; Huang, Hong; Xia, Fang; Liu, Yuanyuan; Dahlgren, Randy A; Zhang, Minghua; Mei, Kun

2018-06-01

Heavy metal pollution is a major concern in China because of its serious effects on human health. To assess potential human health and ecological risks of heavy metal pollution, concentration data for seven heavy metals (As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Hg, Cu, Zn) from 14 sites spanning the rural-urban interface of the Wen-Rui Tang River watershed in southeast China were collected from 2000 to 2010. The heavy metal pollution index (HPI), hazard index (HI) and carcinogenic risk (CR) metrics were used to assess potential heavy metal risks. Further, we evaluated the uncertainty associated with the risk assessment indices using Monte Carlo analysis. Results indicated that all HPI values were lower than the critical level of 100 suggesting that heavy metal levels posed acceptable ecological risks; however, one site having an industrial point-source input reached levels of 80-97 on several occasions. Heavy metal concentrations fluctuated over time, and the decrease after 2007 is due to increased wastewater collection. The HI suggested low non-carcinogenic risk throughout the study period (HI < 1); however, nine sites showed CR values above the acceptable level of 10 -4 for potential cancer risk from arsenic in the early 2000s. Uncertainty analysis revealed an exposure risk for As at all sites because some CR values exceeded the 10 -4 level of concern; levels of Cd near an old industrial area also exceeded the Cd exposure standard (2.6% of CR values > 10 -4 ). While most metrics for human health risk did not exceed critical values for heavy metals, there is still a potential human health risk from chronic exposure to low heavy metal concentrations due to long-term exposure and potential metal interactions. Results of this study inform water pollution remediation and management efforts designed to protect public health in polluted urban area waterways common in rapidly developing regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meinhold, A.F.; Holtzman, S.; DePhillips, M.P.

1995-11-01

Potential human health and environmental impacts from discharge of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico concern regulators at the State and Federal levels, environmental interest groups, industry and the public. Current regulations in the United States require or propose azero discharge limit for coastal facilities based primarily on studies performed in low energy,poorly flushed environments. Produced water discharges in coastal Louisiana, however,include a number located in open bays, where potential and impacts are likely to be larger than the minimal impacts associated with offshore discharges, but smaller than those demonstrated in low-energy canal environments. This paper summarizes results ofmore » a conservative screening-level health and ecological assessment for contaminants discharged in produced water to open bays in Louisiana, and reports results of a probabilistic human health risk assessment for radium and lead. The initial human health and ecological risk assessments consisted of conservative screening analyses that identified potentially important contaminants and excluded others from further consideration. A more quantitative probabilistic risk assessment was completed for the human health effects of the two contaminants identified in this screen: radium and lead. This work is part of a series of studies on the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico, supported by the United States Department of Energy (USDOE).« less

A Review of Zoonotic Infection Risks Associated with the Wild Meat Trade in Malaysia.

PubMed

Cantlay, Jennifer Caroline; Ingram, Daniel J; Meredith, Anna L

2017-06-01

The overhunting of wildlife for food and commercial gain presents a major threat to biodiversity in tropical forests and poses health risks to humans from contact with wild animals. Using a recent survey of wildlife offered at wild meat markets in Malaysia as a basis, we review the literature to determine the potential zoonotic infection risks from hunting, butchering and consuming the species offered. We also determine which taxa potentially host the highest number of pathogens and discuss the significant disease risks from traded wildlife, considering how cultural practices influence zoonotic transmission. We identify 51 zoonotic pathogens (16 viruses, 19 bacteria and 16 parasites) potentially hosted by wildlife and describe the human health risks. The Suidae and the Cervidae families potentially host the highest number of pathogens. We conclude that there are substantial gaps in our knowledge of zoonotic pathogens and recommend performing microbial food safety risk assessments to assess the hazards of wild meat consumption. Overall, there may be considerable zoonotic risks to people involved in the hunting, butchering or consumption of wild meat in Southeast Asia, and these should be considered in public health strategies.

Proposal and application of a regional methodology of comparative risk assessment for potentially contaminated sites.

PubMed

Marzocchini, Manrico; Tatàno, Fabio; Moretti, Michela Simona; Antinori, Caterina; Orilisi, Stefano

2018-06-05

A possible approach for determining soil and groundwater quality criteria for contaminated sites is the comparative risk assessment. Originating from but not limited to Italian interest in a decentralised (regional) implementation of comparative risk assessment, this paper first addresses the proposal of an original methodology called CORIAN REG-M , which was created with initial attention to the context of potentially contaminated sites in the Marche Region (Central Italy). To deepen the technical-scientific knowledge and applicability of the comparative risk assessment, the following characteristics of the CORIAN REG-M methodology appear to be relevant: the simplified but logical assumption of three categories of factors (source and transfer/transport of potential contamination, and impacted receptors) within each exposure pathway; the adaptation to quality and quantity of data that are available or derivable at the given scale of concern; the attention to a reliable but unsophisticated modelling; the achievement of a conceptual linkage to the absolute risk assessment approach; and the potential for easy updating and/or refining of the methodology. Further, the application of the CORIAN REG-M methodology to some case-study sites located in the Marche Region indicated the following: a positive correlation can be expected between air and direct contact pathway scores, as well as between individual pathway scores and the overall site scores based on a root-mean-square algorithm; the exposure pathway, which presents the highest variability of scores, tends to be dominant at sites with the highest computed overall site scores; and the adoption of a root-mean-square algorithm can be expected to emphasise the overall site scoring.

Assessment of tobacco heating product THP1.0. Part 9: The placement of a range of next-generation products on an emissions continuum relative to cigarettes via pre-clinical assessment studies.

PubMed

Murphy, James; Liu, Chuan; McAdam, Kevin; Gaҫa, Marianna; Prasad, Krishna; Camacho, Oscar; McAughey, John; Proctor, Christopher

2018-03-01

This series of nine papers described the operation and pre-clinical assessment of a tobacco heating product THP1.0. This last paper contextualises the pre-clinical assessment data on THP1.0 with data from other next generation products relative to cigarette smoke. The tobacco and nicotine risk continuum is a concept that ranks products according to their potential harm, with cigarettes at the highest risk extreme and Nicotine Replacement Therapy at the least risky extreme. Data generated in pre-clinical studies on THP1.0 and a range of Next Generation Products (NGPs) may provide some initial indication of potential ranking of these products, although importantly, data from such studies are limited and cannot take into consideration several important aspects for risk such as long term product use patterns. In each of the studies, the responses to the emissions from THP1.0 were substantially reduced relative to cigarette smoke. Additionally, responses from THP1.0 were very similar to those from the other NGP emissions. A comparison of the results clearly showed the emissions from all the NGPs were considerably lower than those from cigarettes and all in around the same emissions level. These results show that THP1.0 could have the potential to be a reduced risk product compared to cigarettes, though further studies assessing the exposure, individual and population risk reduction profile would be required to substantiate this potential. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

2015-04-01

In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop clarity on their limits and potential misuses.

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

PubMed

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fishing in acid waters: A vulnerability assessment of the Norwegian fishing industry in the face of increasing ocean acidification.

PubMed

Heinrich, Luise; Krause, Torsten

2017-07-01

Ocean acidification (OA) describes a change in the ocean's carbonate chemistry. Whereas its chemical processes are largely understood, the biological and socioeconomic consequences particularly in relation to fisheries are less known. Norway is a major fishing nation worldwide and is potentially affected by OA. To improve the understanding of the socioeconomic consequences of OA, we conducted a risk assessment among the Norwegian counties using a modified version of a risk assessment framework introduced in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's "Special Report: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation," which considers risk to be the sum of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Our results show that about 13 of 19 counties are likely to experience moderate to high risk from OA. We highlight that the success of integrated risk assessments highly depends on the availability of detailed environmental, economic, and societal data. In the case of Norway, modeling data regarding the progress of OA, improved information on potential biological impacts on a larger number of species, and statistical data on social variables are required. We conclude that although still in its infancy, integrated risk assessments are important prerequisites for any form of interdisciplinary research on OA and the development of successful response strategies. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:778-789. ©2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Environmental behaviors and potential ecological risks of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn) in multimedia in an oilfield in China.

PubMed

Hu, Yan; Wang, Dazhou; Li, Yu

2016-07-01

The environmental behaviors of five heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn) in a Chinese oilfield were investigated using a steady-state multimedia aquivalence (SMA) model. The modeling results showed good agreement with the actual measured values, with average residual errors of 0.69, 0.83, 0.35, 0.16, and 0.54 logarithmic units for air, water, soil, sediment, and vegetation compartments, respectively. Model results indicated that most heavy metals were buried in sediment, and that transfers between adjacent compartments were mainly deposition from the water to the sediment compartment (48.59 %) and from the air to the soil compartment (47.74 %) via atmospheric dry/wet deposition. Sediment and soil were the dominant sinks, accounting for 68.80 and 25.26 % of all the heavy metals in the multimedia system, respectively. The potential ecological risks from the five heavy metals in the sediment and soil compartments were assessed by the potential ecological risk index (PERI). The assessment results demonstrate that the heavy metals presented low levels of ecological risk in the sediment compartment, and that Cd was the most significant contributor to the integrated potential ecological risk in the oilfield. The SMA model provided useful simulations of the transport and fate of heavy metals and is a useful tool for ecological risk assessment and contaminated site management.

A New Method for Post-introduction Risk Assessment of Biological Invasions Among Introduced Shrubs in Developing Countries.

PubMed

Seburanga, J L; Bizuru, E; Mwavu, E N; Kampungu, K G; Gatesire, T; Kaplin, B A

2016-03-01

Risk-assessment methods are useful in collecting data that can help decision making to prevent the introduction of new species that have the potential of invading as well as in management of established taxa. Not only the complexity and unaffordability of available pre-introduction risk-assessment models make them rarely or inconsistently applied in the least-developed countries, but also there is lack of tools to assess the status of already introduced plant species. In this study, an affordable and rapid method of assessment of invasiveness among introduced plant species was developed and tested in Rwanda. This method defines three invasion stages (potential, effective, and suppressive invaders) and four levels of risk assessment: post-introduction assessment of species inherent invasive potential (Level 1), post-establishment assessment of species capacity of regeneration (Level 2), post-naturalization assessment of species range of occurrence and ability for long-distance dispersal (Level 3), and post-naturalization assessment of species ability to outcompete other plants in the community and transform the landscape (Level 4). A review of invasive species in Rwanda was developed through desk review, examination of herbarium records, and vegetation surveys. This method should be applicable in other countries that lack the means for a more conventional scientific investigation or under any circumstance where a quick and inexpensive assessment is needed. The method could be useful to environmental managers for timely intervention with strategies specific to different stages of invasion (post-introduction, post-establishment, or post-naturalization) and allocate resources accordingly.

A New Method for Post-introduction Risk Assessment of Biological Invasions Among Introduced Shrubs in Developing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seburanga, J. L.; Bizuru, E.; Mwavu, E. N.; Kampungu, K. G.; Gatesire, T.; Kaplin, B. A.

2016-03-01

Risk-assessment methods are useful in collecting data that can help decision making to prevent the introduction of new species that have the potential of invading as well as in management of established taxa. Not only the complexity and unaffordability of available pre-introduction risk-assessment models make them rarely or inconsistently applied in the least-developed countries, but also there is lack of tools to assess the status of already introduced plant species. In this study, an affordable and rapid method of assessment of invasiveness among introduced plant species was developed and tested in Rwanda. This method defines three invasion stages (potential, effective, and suppressive invaders) and four levels of risk assessment: post-introduction assessment of species inherent invasive potential ( Level 1), post-establishment assessment of species capacity of regeneration ( Level 2), post-naturalization assessment of species range of occurrence and ability for long-distance dispersal ( Level 3), and post-naturalization assessment of species ability to outcompete other plants in the community and transform the landscape ( Level 4). A review of invasive species in Rwanda was developed through desk review, examination of herbarium records, and vegetation surveys. This method should be applicable in other countries that lack the means for a more conventional scientific investigation or under any circumstance where a quick and inexpensive assessment is needed. The method could be useful to environmental managers for timely intervention with strategies specific to different stages of invasion (post-introduction, post-establishment, or post-naturalization) and allocate resources accordingly.

A "weight of evidence" approach for the integration of environmental "triad" data to assess ecological risk and biological vulnerability.

PubMed

Dagnino, Alessandro; Sforzini, Susanna; Dondero, Francesco; Fenoglio, Stefano; Bona, Elisa; Jensen, John; Viarengo, Aldo

2008-07-01

A new Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) that can integrate Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites has been developed. Starting with ecosystem relevance, the EDSS assigns different weights to the results obtained from Triad disciplines. The following parameters have been employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous substances), 2) ecotoxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates), 3) biomarkers (showing sublethal pollutant effects), and 4) ecological parameters (assessing changes in community structure and functions). For each Triad discipline, the EDSS compares the data obtained at the studied field sites with reference values and calculates different 0-1 indexes (e.g., Chemical Risk Index, Ecotoxicological Risk Index, and Ecological Risk Index). The EDSS output consists of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk index (EnvRI), quantifying the levels of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index (BVI), assessing the potential threats to biological equilibriums, and 3) Genotoxicity Index (GTI), screening genotoxicity effects. The EDSS has been applied in the integration of a battery of Triad data obtained during the European Union-funded Life Intervention in the Fraschetta Area (LINFA) project, which has been carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soils of a highly anthropized area (Alessandria, Italy) mainly impacted by deposition of atmospheric pollutants. Results obtained during 4 seasonal sampling campaigns (2004-2005) show maximum values of EnvRI in sites A and B (characterized by industrial releases) and lower levels in site D (affected by vehicular traffic emissions). All 3 potentially polluted sites have shown high levels of BVI and GTI, suggesting a general change from reference conditions (site C).

Pharmaceuticals residues in selected tropical surface water bodies from Selangor (Malaysia): Occurrence and potential risk assessments.

PubMed

Praveena, Sarva Mangala; Shaifuddin, Siti Norashikin Mohamad; Sukiman, Syazwani; Nasir, Fauzan Adzima Mohd; Hanafi, Zanjabila; Kamarudin, Norizah; Ismail, Tengku Hanidza Tengku; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

2018-06-11

This study investigated the occurrence of nine pharmaceuticals (amoxicillin, caffeine, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, dexamethasone, diclofenac, nitrofurazone, sulfamethoxazole, and triclosan) and to evaluate potential risks (human health and ecotoxicological) in Lui, Gombak and Selangor (Malaysia) rivers using commercial competitive Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) kit assays. Physicochemical properties of these rivers showed the surface samples belong to Class II of Malaysian National Water Quality Standards which requires conventional treatment before consumption. All the pharmaceuticals were detected in all three rivers except for triclosan, dexamethasone and diclofenac which were not detected in few of sampling locations in these three rivers. Highest pharmaceutical concentrations were detected in Gombak river in line of being as one of the most polluted rivers in Malaysia. Ciprofloxacin concentrations were detected in all the sampling locations with the highest at 299.88 ng/L. While triclosan, dexamethasone and diclofenac concentrations were not detected in a few of sampling locations in these three rivers. All these nine pharmaceuticals were within the levels reported previously in literature. Pharmaceutical production, wastewater treatment technologies and treated sewage effluent were found as the potential sources which can be related with pharmaceuticals occurrence in surface water samples. Potential human risk assessment showed low health risk except for ciprofloxacin and dexamethasone. Instead, ecotoxicological risk assessment indicated moderate risks were present for these rivers. Nevertheless, results confirmation using instrumental techniques is needed for higher degree of specificity. It is crucial to continuously monitor the surface water bodies for pharmaceuticals using a cost-effective prioritisation approach to assess sensitive sub-populations risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A risk assessment of topical tretinoin as a potential human developmental toxin based on animal and comparative human data.

PubMed

Johnson, E M

1997-03-01

Although topically applied all-trans-retinoic acid (tretinoin) undergoes minimal absorption and adds negligibly to normal endogenous levels, its safety in humans is occasionally questioned because oral ingestion of retinoids at therapeutic levels is known to entail teratogenic risks. To assess the actual potential for developmental toxicity from treatment with topical tretinoin. Risk assessments were conducted on four known human developmental toxicants (valproic acid, methotrexate, thalidomide, and isotretinoin) and a potential developmental toxicant (acetylsalicylic acid). The margin of safety for each chemical was calculated from the ratio of animal no-observed adverse effect levels to human lowest-observed adverse effect levels or estimated exposure doses. The derived safety margin of more than 100 for topical tretinoin (with 2% absorption) contrasted sharply with the near unity values for valproic acid, methotrexate, thalidomide, and isotretinoin and was larger than that for acetylsalicylic acid. These data support other epidemiologic and animal data that topical tretinoin is not a potential human developmental toxicant.

Post-disaster Risk Assessment for Hilly Terrain exposed to Seismic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, Katherine; Villeneuve, Marlene; Wilson, Thomas

2013-04-01

The 2010-present Canterbury earthquake sequence in the central South Island of New Zealand has identified and highlighted the value of practical, standardised and coordinated geotechnical risk assessment guidelines for inhabited structures in the aftermath of a geotechnical disaster. The lack of such guidelines and provisions to enforce risk assessments was a major gap which hindered coordinated, timely and transparent management of geotechnical risk. The earthquake sequence initiated a series of rockfall, cliff collapse and landslide events around the Port Hills southeast of Christchurch. This was particularly the case with the 22 February 2011 earthquakes, which put thousands of people inhabiting the area at risk. Lives were lost and thousands of houses and critical infrastructure were damaged. Given the highly seismic environment in New Zealand and a significant number of active faults near population centres, it is prudent to develop such guidelines to ensure response mechanisms and geotechnical risk assessment is effective following an earthquake rupture in a largely populated urban environment. For response and associated risk assessments to be effective, the mechanisms of the geotechnical failure should be taken into consideration as part of the life safety assessment. This is to ensure that the hazard's potential risk is fully assessed and encompassed in decisions regarding life safety. This paper examines the event sequence, slope failure mechanisms and the geotechnical risk management approach that developed immediately post-earthquake. It highlights experiences from key municipal, management and operational stakeholders who were involved in geotechnical risk assessment during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, and sheds light on the evolution of information needed through time during the emergency response and identify the hard won lessons. It then discusses what is needed for life safety assessment post-earthquake and create awareness of potential geotechnical hazards. This is not only important to New Zealand but has international implications as there are many other regions of the world also subject to high seismic risk.

Assessing carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic in farmed smeltfish (Ayu, Plecoglossus altirelis) in aseniasis-endemic area of Taiwan.

PubMed

Lee, Jin-Jing; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Ching-Ping; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2008-09-15

This study spatially analyzed potential carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic (As) contents in aquacultural smeltfish (Plecoglossus altirelis) from the Lanyang Plain of northeastern Taiwan. Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) was adopted to reproduce As exposure distributions in groundwater based on their three-dimensional variability. A target cancer risk (TR) associated with ingesting As in aquacultural smeltfish was employed to evaluate the potential risk to human health. The probabilistic risk assessment determined by Monte Carlo simulation and SIS is used to propagate properly the uncertainty of parameters. Safe and hazardous aquacultural regions were mapped to elucidate the safety of groundwater use. The TRs determined from the risks at the 95th percentiles exceed one millionth, indicating that ingesting smeltfish that are farmed in the highly As-affected regions represents a potential cancer threat to human health. The 95th percentile of TRs is considered in formulating a strategy for the aquacultural use of groundwater in the preliminary stage.

Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

Novel Transformations of Trenbolone Acetate Metabolites Suggest Incomplete Environmental Risk Assessment for Trenbolone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolodziej, E. P.; Jones, G.; Cwiertny, D. M.; Qu, S.

2013-12-01

In general, the existing regulatory and risk assessment paradigm for veterinary pharmaceuticals and other potential environmental contaminants is relatively simplistic as it equates contaminant degradation with significant reduction in associated ecological risk. However, it is becoming clear that there exist a number of environmental contaminants whose behaviors in the environment confound this assessment paradigm and whose environmental risk cannot be accurately assessed by laboratory studies demonstrating degradation or attenuation of compound concentrations in model environmental systems. For example, trenbolone acetate (TBA) is an androgenic growth promoting steroid used widely in animal agriculture in the United States, with the vast majority of U.S. beef cattle receiving TBA implants. Despite their significant economic value ( $1 billion annually), TBA metabolites can be potent endocrine disrupting compounds for sensitive species of aquatic organisms, capable of endocrine disruption at low ng/L concentrations. TBA metabolites are often considered rather reactive and prone to degradation, and risk assessment studies specifically point to their rapid degradation as evidence for limited ecological risks. However, we have recently demonstrated a most unexpected observation for TBA metabolite fate in environmental systems: namely that product-to-parent reversion is possible for certain TBA metabolites. Also, a variety of structural analogs and stereoisomers can arise from environmental transformation processes of TBA metabolites, potentially yielding a range of uncharacterized steroid structures capable of receptor interactions. None of these possibilities are accounted for in current risk assessment approaches for trenbolone or any other veterinary pharmaceutical. These observations confound most all current environmental risk assessment and contaminant fate models, and therefore improving our approach to environmental risk assessment needs to specifically account for these possibilities. The implications of this data suggest that improved environmental risk assessment should include a more complete characterization of transformation products and identification of possible non-target receptor interactions as part of exposure assessment process.

[Investigation on nickel contamination of food and potential health risk of dietary nickel in Shaanxi Province].

PubMed

Wang, Caixia; Hu, Jiawei; Cheng, Guoxia; Liu, Yu; Li, Tianlai

2016-11-01

To understand the content level of nickel in all kinds of foods, and to assess the daily intake of nickel and the possible adverse health impact. Statistical analysis of the nickel contents of 1872 samples. The dietary intake of nickel was obtained using the test results and the results of Shaanxi total diet study in 2002. The safety of dietary nickel was evaluated by using the tolerable daily intake( TDI)recommended by WHO. The health risk was assessed by using USEPA health risk assessment model. The content of nickel ranged from 0. 0586 to 0. 210 mg/kg in seven kinds of food, and the nickel content of cereals was higher than other kinds, the value of which was 3. 30 mg/kg. The average and the higher dietary intake of nickel were2. 17 μg/( kg·d) and 11. 2 μg/( kg·d), respectively. The rates of which were 18% and94%, compared to TDI value. That showed a potential health risk from Ni via dietary exposure for the people highly exposured. Because there was inadequate evidence for carcinogenicity of nickel, if nickel was non carcinogenic elements, the individual health risk of nickel was lower than the standard of ICRP. In contrast, the individual health riskof nickel was higher than the standard, which means a potential health risk for Shaanxi habitants. This study showed a potential health risk from Ni via dietary exposure for the people highly exposured.

[Ecological risk assessment of sediment pollution based on triangular fuzzy number].

PubMed

Zhou, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Li-Ping; Zheng, Bing-Hui

2008-11-01

Based on the characteristics of random and fuzziness, and the shortage and imprecision of datum information of water environmental system, environment background value of sediments and concentration of pollution is calculated by means of triangle fuzzy number and fuzzy risk assessment model of the potential ecological risk index is established. Using this method heavy metal pollution and ecological risk in the Yangtze Estuary and its adjacent waters were analyzed. The result shows that the environment of the foundation of the study area is subject to varying degrees of pollution. The pollution extents are correspondingly Cu, Hg, Zn, Pb, As, Cd. RI by that method and the Hakanson ecological risk method is in similar trend. RI of the estuary, turbidity maximum zone and Hangzhou bay is greater than that at outside of the estuary and sea area nearby Zhousan, and the potential ecological risk rate increases one. The assessment result is good in the validation based on the corresponding period macrobenthic community parameters.

An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Tolaymat, Thabet; El Badawy, Amro; Sequeira, Reynold; Genaidy, Ash

2015-11-15

There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture "what is known" and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.

2006-01-01

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

Nanomaterial Case Studies: Nanoscale Titanium Dioxide ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This draft document presents two case studies of nanoscale titanium dioxide (nano-TiO2) used (1) to remove arsenic from drinking water and (2) as an active ingredient in topical sunscreen. The draft case studies are organized around a comprehensive environmental assessment approach that combines a product life cycle framework with the risk assessment paradigm. The document does not draw conclusions about potential risks. Rather, the case studies are intended to help identify what needs to be known in order to conduct a comprehensive environmental assessment of the potential risks related to nano-TiO2. This draft document is part of a process that will inform the development of EPA’s research strategy to support nanomaterial risk assessments. The complex properties of various nanomaterials make evaluating them in the abstract or with generalizations difficult if not impossible. Thus, this document focuses on two specific uses of nano-TiO2, as a drinking water treatment and as topical sunscreen. These case studies do not represent completed or even preliminary assessments; rather, they present the structure for identifying and prioritizing research needed to support future assessments.

TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

2006-09-01

Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

PHOTOTOXIC POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS IN SEDIMENTS: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH FOR ASSESSING RISK

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past five years we have developed a number of models which will be combined in an integrated framework with chemical-monitoring information to assess the potential for widespread risk of phototoxic PAHs in sediments.

Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...

Adverse Outcome Pathways in Ecotoxicology Research

EPA Science Inventory

Just as for chemical risk assessments for human health, ecotoxicology risk assessments face the daunting challenge posed by the large number of chemicals currently in use that could potentially impact the environment. In addition, the limited amount of toxicological data on many ...

THE MONARCH BUTTERFLY, MILKWEEDS, AND TROPOSPHERIC OZONE AIR POLLUTION: A STUDY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) within the Office of Research and Development (ORD) has the responsibility to conduct ecological risk assessments to assess the potential impacts of anthropogenic contaminants i...

Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

PubMed Central

Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

2016-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

Bioassays for toxicological risk assessment of landfill leachate: A review.

PubMed

Ghosh, Pooja; Thakur, Indu Shekhar; Kaushik, Anubha

2017-07-01

Landfilling is the most common solid waste management practice. However, there exist a potential environmental risk to the surface and ground waters due to the possible leaching of contaminants from the landfill leachates. Current municipal solid waste landfill regulatory approaches consider physicochemical characterization of the leachate and do not assess their potential toxicity. However, assessment of toxic effects of the leachates using rapid, sensitive and cost-effective biological assays is more useful in assessing the risks as they measure the overall toxicity of the chemicals in the leachate. Nevertheless, more research is needed to develop an appropriate matrix of bioassays based on their sensitivity to various toxicants in order to evaluate leachate toxicity. There is a need for a multispecies approach using organisms representing different trophic levels so as to understand the potential impacts of leachate on different trophic organisms. The article reviews different bioassays available for assessing the hazard posed by landfill leachates. From the review it appears that there is a need for a multispecies approach to evaluate leachate toxicity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Development and Validation of the Contextualized Assessment Tool for Risk and Protection Management (CAT-RPM)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bower, Julie M.; Carroll, Annemaree; Ashman, Adrian

2014-01-01

Traditional resources for ascertaining risk and protection for disengaged youth are often unsuitable, due to the stamina and skill required to complete them. Many of these tools assess risk without considering participants' potential for personal growth. The present study outlines the development and initial validation of a tool titled the…

Adaptive Management Approach to Oil and Gas Activities in Areas Occupied by Pacific Walrus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, D.; Broker, K.; San Filippo, V.; Brzuzy, L.; Morse, L.

2016-12-01

During Shell's 2015 exploration drilling program in the Chukchi Sea, activities were conducted in accordance with a Letter of Authorization issued by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service that allowed the incidental harassment of Pacific Walrus and Polar Bears under the Marine Mammal Protection Act. As a part of the request for authorization, Shell proposed a process to monitor and assess the potential for activities to interact with walruses on ice, especially if ice posed a potential threat to the drill site. The process assimilated near real-time information from multiple data sources including vessel-based observations, aerial surveys, satellite-linked GPS tags on walrus, and satellite imagery of ice conditions and movements. These data were reviewed daily and assessed in the context of planned activities to assign a risk level (low, medium, or high). The risk level was communicated to all assets in the field and decision makers during morning briefings. A low risk level meant that planned activities could occur without further review. A medium risk level meant that some operations had a greater potential of interacting with walrus on ice and that additional discussions of those activities were required to determine the relative risk of potential impacts compare to the importance of the planned activity. A high risk level meant that the planned activities were necessary and walrus on ice were likely to be encountered. Assignment of a high risk level triggered contact with agency personnel and directly incorporated them into the assessment and decision making process. This process made effective use of relevant available information to provide meaningful assessments at temporal and spatial scales that allowed approved activities to proceed while minimizing potential impacts. More so, this process provides a valuable alternative to large-scale restriction areas with coarse temporal resolution without reducing protection to target species.

Adaptive Management Approach to Oil and Gas Activities in Areas Occupied by Pacific Walrus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, D.; Broker, K.; San Filippo, V.; Brzuzy, L.; Morse, L.

2016-02-01

During Shell's 2015 exploration drilling program in the Chukchi Sea, activities were conducted in accordance with a Letter of Authorization issued by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service that allowed the incidental harassment of Pacific Walrus and Polar Bears under the Marine Mammal Protection Act. As a part of the request for authorization, Shell proposed a process to monitor and assess the potential for activities to interact with walruses on ice, especially if ice posed a potential threat to the drill site. The process assimilated near real-time information from multiple data sources including vessel-based observations, aerial surveys, satellite-linked GPS tags on walrus, and satellite imagery of ice conditions and movements. These data were reviewed daily and assessed in the context of planned activities to assign a risk level (low, medium, or high). The risk level was communicated to all assets in the field and decision makers during morning briefings. A low risk level meant that planned activities could occur without further review. A medium risk level meant that some operations had a greater potential of interacting with walrus on ice and that additional discussions of those activities were required to determine the relative risk of potential impacts compare to the importance of the planned activity. A high risk level meant that the planned activities were necessary and walrus on ice were likely to be encountered. Assignment of a high risk level triggered contact with agency personnel and directly incorporated them into the assessment and decision making process. This process made effective use of relevant available information to provide meaningful assessments at temporal and spatial scales that allowed approved activities to proceed while minimizing potential impacts. More so, this process provides a valuable alternative to large-scale restriction areas with coarse temporal resolution without reducing protection to target species.

Pre- and posttest evaluation of a breast cancer risk assessment program for nurse practitioners.

PubMed

Edwards, Quannetta T; Seibert, Diane

2010-07-01

Numerous studies have shown that healthcare providers, including nurse practitioners (NPs) fail to provide breast cancer risk assessment (BrCRA) in primary care settings. A potential barrier to the use of BrCRA is insufficient knowledge or training of risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to analyze the outcome of a BrCRA program developed to enhance NPs' knowledge of risk assessment and use of empiric risk assessment models. Thirty-five NPs participated in a before-after (pretest-posttest design) study evaluating the effectiveness of a BrCRA education program conducted at a national NP conference. Demographics, pre/post knowledge, and course satisfaction measures were all examined as a part of this pilot study. Continuing education through the implementation of a BrCRA program significantly increased NPs knowledge in assessing breast cancer risk and the use of empiric risk assessment models. Many healthcare providers, including NPs, are inadequately prepared to assess a woman's risk for breast cancer. Understanding breast cancer risk assessment is essential if NPs are to provide appropriate counseling, management, and referral strategies needed to reduce a woman's risk for developing the disease. Continuing education provides one means to enhance NP's knowledge of BrCRA.

Wind energy development: methods for assessing risks to birds and bats pre-construction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Katzner, Todd E.; Bennett, Victoria; Miller, Tricia A.; Duerr, Adam E.; Braham, Melissa A.; Hale, Amanda

2016-01-01

Wind power generation is rapidly expanding. Although wind power is a low-carbon source of energy, it can impact negatively birds and bats, either directly through fatality or indirectly by displacement or habitat loss. Pre-construction risk assessment at wind facilities within the United States is usually required only on public lands. When conducted, it generally involves a 3-tier process, with each step leading to more detailed and rigorous surveys. Preliminary site assessment (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Tier 1) is usually conducted remotely and involves evaluation of existing databases and published materials. If potentially at-risk wildlife are present and the developer wishes to continue the development process, then on-site surveys are conducted (Tier 2) to verify the presence of those species and to assess site-specific features (e.g., topography, land cover) that may influence risk from turbines. The next step in the process (Tier 3) involves quantitative or scientific studies to assess the potential risk of the proposed project to wildlife. Typical Tier-3 research may involve acoustic, aural, observational, radar, capture, tracking, or modeling studies, all designed to understand details of risk to specific species or groups of species at the given site. Our review highlights several features lacking from many risk assessments, particularly the paucity of before-and-after-control- impact (BACI) studies involving modeling and a lack of understanding of cumulative effects of wind facilities on wildlife. Both are essential to understand effective designs for pre-construction monitoring and both would help expand risk assessment beyond eagles.

Meeting report: international workshop on endocrine disruptors: exposure and potential impact on consumers health.

PubMed

Rousselle, C; Ormsby, J N; Schaefer, B; Lampen, A; Platzek, T; Hirsch-Ernst, K; Warholm, M; Oskarsson, A; Nielsen, P J; Holmer, M L; Emond, C

2013-02-01

The French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (Anses) hosted a two-day workshop on Endocrine Disruptors: Exposure and Potential Impact on Consumers Health, bringing together participants from international organizations, academia, research institutes and from German, Swedish, Danish and French governmental agencies. The main objective of the workshop was to share knowledge and experiences on endocrine disruptors (ED) exposure and potential impact on consumers' health, to identify current risk assessment practices and knowledge gaps and issue recommendations on research needs and future collaboration. The following topics were reviewed: (1) Definition of ED, (2) endpoints to be considered for Risk assessment (RA) of ED, (3) non-monotonic dose response curves, (4) studies to be considered for RA (regulatory versus academic studies), (5) point of departure and uncertainty factors, (6) exposure assessment, (7) regulatory issues related to ED. The opinions expressed during this workshop reflect day-to-day experiences from scientists, regulators, researchers, and others from many different countries in the fields of risk assessment, and were regarded by the attendees as an important basis for further discussions. Accordingly, the participants underlined the need for more exchange in the future to share experiences and improve the methodology related to risk assessment for endocrine disrupters. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of currently available data for characterising the risk of engineered nanomaterials to the environment and human health--lessons learned from four case studies.

PubMed

Aschberger, Karin; Micheletti, Christian; Sokull-Klüttgen, Birgit; Christensen, Frans M

2011-08-01

Production volumes and the use of engineered nanomaterials in many innovative products are continuously increasing, however little is known about their potential risk for the environment and human health. We have reviewed publicly available hazard and exposure data for both, the environment and human health and attempted to carry out a basic risk assessment appraisal for four types of nanomaterials: fullerenes, carbon nanotubes, metals, and metal oxides (ENRHES project 2009(1)). This paper presents a summary of the results of the basic environmental and human health risk assessments of these case studies, highlighting the cross cutting issues and conclusions about fate and behaviour, exposure, hazard and methodological considerations. The risk assessment methodology being the basis for our case studies was that of a regulatory risk assessment under REACH (ECHA, 2008(2)), with modifications to adapt to the limited available data. If possible, environmental no-effect concentrations and human no-effect levels were established from relevant studies by applying assessment factors in line with the REACH guidance and compared to available exposure data to discuss possible risks. When the data did not allow a quantitative assessment, the risk was assessed qualitatively, e.g. for the environment by evaluating the information in the literature to describe the potential to enter the environment and to reach the potential ecological targets. Results indicate that the main risk for the environment is expected from metals and metal oxides, especially for algae and Daphnia, due to exposure to both, particles and ions. The main risks for human health may arise from chronic occupational inhalation exposure, especially during the activities of high particle release and uncontrolled exposure. The information on consumer and environmental exposure of humans is too scarce to attempt a quantitative risk characterisation. It is recognised that the currently available database for both, hazard and exposure is limited and there are high uncertainties in any conclusion on a possible risk. The results should therefore not be used for any regulatory decision making. Likewise, it is recognised that the REACH guidance was developed without considering the specific behaviour and the mode of action of nanomaterials and further work in the generation of data but also in the development of methodologies is required. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technical Guidelines for Environmental Dredging of Contaminated Sediments

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

health and ecological risk assessments . • Evaluate the need for and effectiveness of source control. • Evaluate potential remedies. • Document... risk , resource damage assessments , remedy selec- tion, and remedy design). It is therefore important to consult as many data users as possible (e.g...Contaminated Sediment Risks at Hazardous Waste Sites (USEPA 2002a). Risk Management Prin- ciple Number 4 is: “Develop and refine a conceptual site model that

Characterization of the ecological interactions of Roundup Ready 2 Yield® soybean, MON 89788, for use in ecological risk assessment

PubMed Central

Horak, Michael J; Rosenbaum, Eric W; Phillips, Samuel L; Kendrick, Daniel L; Carson, David; Clark, Pete L; Nickson, Thomas E

2015-01-01

Abstract As part of an ecological risk assessment, Roundup Ready 2 Yield® soybean (MON 89788) was compared to a conventional control soybean variety, A3244, for disease and arthropod damage, plant response to abiotic stress and cold, effects on succeeding plant growth (allelopathic effects), plant response to a bacterial symbiont, and effects on the ability of seed to survive and volunteer in a subsequent growing season. Statistically significant differences between MON 89788 and A3244 were considered in the context of the genetic variation known to occur in soybean and were assessed for their potential impact on plant pest (weed) potential and adverse environmental impact. The results of these studies revealed no effects of the genetic modification that would result in increased pest potential or adverse environmental impact of MON 89788 compared with A3244. This paper illustrates how such characterization studies conducted in a range of environments where the crop is grown are used in an ecological risk assessment of the genetically modified (GM) crop. Furthermore, risk assessors and decision makers use this information when deciding whether to approve a GM crop for cultivation in—or grain import into—their country. PMID:26177011

Working paper : estimating the potential safety benefits of intelligent transportation systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-05-15

The ODOT Abandoned Underground Mine Inventory and Risk Assessment process was conceived as a proactive response to the need to locate and assess the risk of all mapped or otherwise identified roadway sites beneath which abandoned underground mines ex...

Focal species candidates for pesticide risk assessment in European rice fields: A review.

PubMed

Vallon, Martin; Dietzen, Christian; Laucht, Silke; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter

2018-04-25

An assessment of potential risks of pesticides on wildlife is required during the process of product registration within Europe because of the importance of agricultural landscapes as wildlife habitats. Despite their peculiarity and their specific role as artificial wetlands, rice paddies are to date pooled with cereals in guidance documents on how to conduct risk assessments for birds and mammals in Europe. Hence, the focal species currently considered in risk assessments for rice paddies are those known from cereal fields and can therefore be expected to differ significantly from the species actually occurring in the wet environments of rice paddies. We present results of a comprehensive review on bird and mammal species regularly occurring in rice paddies during a time of potential pesticide exposure to identify appropriate focal species candidates for ecotoxicological pesticide risk assessment according to the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). In addition, we present data on rice cultivation areas and agricultural practices in Europe to give background information supporting the species selection process. Our literature search identified a general scarcity of relevant data, particularly for mammals, which highlights the need for crop-specific focal species studies. However, our results clearly indicate that the relevant bird and mammal species in rice fields indeed differ strongly from the focal species used for the cereal risk assessment. They can thus be used as a baseline for more realistic wildlife risk assessments specific to rice and the development of a revised guidance document to bridge the gap for regulatory decision makers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;00:000-000. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy-metal pollution around coal gangue dump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Zhao, H. Q.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

2014-06-01

The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and trend of soil heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy-metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in the order of ER(Cd) > ER(Pb) > ER(Cu) > ER(Cr) > ER(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor leading to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, then the fixed number of years exceeding the standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metals and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provided some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent or decrease heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in the Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

2014-03-01

Aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and predict the trend of soil heavy metal pollution around a~coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in an order of E(Cd) > E(Pb) > E(Cu) > E(Cr) > E(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor led to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, and the fixed number of years exceeding standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metal, and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provide some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent and decrease heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump in Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

Towards a more open debate about values in decision-making on agricultural biotechnology.

PubMed

Devos, Yann; Sanvido, Olivier; Tait, Joyce; Raybould, Alan

2014-12-01

Regulatory decision-making over the use of products of new technology aims to be based on science-based risk assessment. In some jurisdictions, decision-making about the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) plants is blocked supposedly because of scientific uncertainty about risks to the environment. However, disagreement about the acceptability of risks is primarily a dispute over normative values, which is not resolvable through natural sciences. Natural sciences may improve the quality and relevance of the scientific information used to support environmental risk assessments and make scientific uncertainties explicit, but offer little to resolve differences about values. Decisions about cultivating GM plants will thus not necessarily be eased by performing more research to reduce scientific uncertainty in environmental risk assessments, but by clarifying the debate over values. We suggest several approaches to reveal values in decision-making: (1) clarifying policy objectives; (2) determining what constitutes environmental harm; (3) making explicit the factual and normative premises on which risk assessments are based; (4) better demarcating environmental risk assessment studies from ecological research; (5) weighing the potential for environmental benefits (i.e., opportunities) as well as the potential for environmental harms (i.e., risks); and (6) expanding participation in the risk governance of GM plants. Recognising and openly debating differences about values will not remove controversy about the cultivation of GM plants. However, by revealing what is truly in dispute, debates about values will clarify decision-making criteria.

SU-F-T-250: What Does It Take to Correctly Assess the High Failure Modes of an Advanced Radiotherapy Procedure Such as Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, D; Vile, D; Rosu, M

Purpose: Assess the correct implementation of risk-based methodology of TG 100 to optimize quality management and patient safety procedures for Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy. Methods: A detailed process map of SBRT treatment procedure was generated by a team of three physicists with varying clinical experience at our institution to assess the potential high-risk failure modes. The probabilities of occurrence (O), severity (S) and detectability (D) for potential failure mode in each step of the process map were assigned by these individuals independently on the scale from1 to 10. The risk priority numbers (RPN) were computed and analyzed. The highest 30more » potential modes from each physicist’s analysis were then compared. Results: The RPN values assessed by the three physicists ranged from 30 to 300. The magnitudes of the RPN values from each physicist were different, and there was no concordance in the highest RPN values recorded by three physicists independently. The 10 highest RPN values belonged to sub steps of CT simulation, contouring and delivery in the SBRT process map. For these 10 highest RPN values, at least two physicists, irrespective of their length of experience had concordance but no general conclusions emerged. Conclusion: This study clearly shows that the risk-based assessment of a clinical process map requires great deal of preparation, group discussions, and participation by all stakeholders. One group albeit physicists cannot effectively implement risk-based methodology proposed by TG100. It should be a team effort in which the physicists can certainly play the leading role. This also corroborates TG100 recommendation that risk-based assessment of clinical processes is a multidisciplinary team effort.« less

Risk assessment for pesticides' MRL non-compliances in Poland in the years 2011-2015.

PubMed

Struciński, Paweł; Ludwicki, Jan K; Góralczyk, Katarzyna; Czaja, Katarzyna; Hernik, Agnieszka; Liszewska, Monika

2015-01-01

Human exposure to trace levels of pesticide residues present in food of plant origin is inevitable as long as pesticides continue to be applied in agriculture. Since Maximum Residue Levels (MRL) are not toxicological endpoint values, their violation is not by default equivalent to health risk for consumers. However, its essential to provide a health- based risk assessment for each case of MRL non-compliance reported during monitoring and official control of foodstuffs. To assess the potential short-term risk associated with consumption of food products of plant origin containing pesticide residues above MRL values based on notifications forwarded by the National Contact Point for RASFF in Poland during 2011-2015. 115 notifications including 127 analytical results non-compliant with respective MRL values were forwarded to provide risk assessment. An internationally accepted deterministic approach based on conservative model assumptions for short-term exposure assessment was applied. The risk was characterized by comparing an estimated dietary intake with respective acute reference dose (ARfD). Black currant, tea, lettuce, Chinese cabbage and carrot were among the most frequently notified products in years 2011-2015. Among pesticides exceeding respective MRL values, over 90% belonged to fungicides and insecticides/acaricides such as acetamiprid, chlorpyrifos, dimethoate, imidacloprid, dithiocarbamates and procymidone. For 15 and 6 results noncompliant with respective MRL value, a predicted short-term intake exceeded ARfD for children and adults, respectively. Residue levels that could potentially pose a health threat are found incidentally. The science-based and transparent risk assessment process with regard to the data, methods and assumptions that are applied is essential to risk management authorities. risk assessment, pesticide residues, MRL, dietary intake, RASFF, food safety.

Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for in situ remediation: risk mitigation or trade-off?

PubMed

Grieger, Khara D; Fjordbøge, Annika; Hartmann, Nanna B; Eriksson, Eva; Bjerg, Poul L; Baun, Anders

2010-11-25

The use of nanoscaled zero-valent iron particles (nZVI) to remediate contaminated soil and groundwater has received increasing amounts of attention within the last decade, primarily due to its potential for broader application, higher reactivity, and cost-effectiveness compared to conventional zero-valent iron applications and other in situ methods. However, the potential environmental risks of nZVI in in situ field scale applications are largely unknown at the present and traditional environmental risk assessment approaches are not yet able to be completed. Therefore, it may not yet be fully clear how to consider the environmental benefits and risks of nZVI for in situ applications. This analysis therefore addresses the challenges of comprehensively considering and weighing the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of this emerging environmentally-beneficial nanotechnology, particularly relevant for environmental engineers, scientists, and decision makers. We find that most of the benefits of using nZVI are based on near-term considerations, and large data gaps currently exist within almost all aspects of environmental exposure and effect assessments. We also find that while a wide range of decision support tools and frameworks alternative to risk assessment are currently available, a thorough evaluation of these should be undertaken in the near future to assess their full relevancy for nZVI at specific sites. Due to the absence of data in environmental risk evaluations, we apply a 'best' and 'worst' case scenario evaluation as a first step to qualitatively evaluate the current state-of-knowledge regarding the potential environmental risks of nZVI. The result of this preliminary qualitative evaluation indicates that at present, there are no significant grounds on which to form the basis that nZVI currently poses a significant, apparent risk to the environment, although the majority of the most serious criteria (i.e. potential for persistency, bioaccumulation, toxicity) are generally unknown. We recommend that in cases where nZVI may be chosen as the 'best' treatment option, short and long-term environmental monitoring is actively employed at these sites. We furthermore recommend the continued development of responsible nZVI innovation and better facilitated information exchange between nZVI developers, nano-risk researchers, remediation industry, and decision makers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chapter 6: Ecotoxicology, Environmental Risk Assessment & Potential Impact on Human Health

EPA Science Inventory

This chapter examines potential risks posed by pharmaceuticals present in the aquatic environment to humans and aquatic life. We begin by describing the mechanisms by which pharmaceuticals enter the vertebrate body, produce effects and leave the body. Then we describe theoretical...

Evaluating Potential Health Risks in Relocatable Classrooms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katchen, Mark; LaPierre, Adrienne; Charlin, Cary; Brucker, Barry; Ferguson, Paul

2001-01-01

Only limited data exist describing potential exposures to chemical and biological agents when using portable classrooms or outlining how to assess and reduce associated health risks. Evaluating indoor air quality involves examining ventilating rates, volatile organic compounds, and microbiologicals. Open communication among key stakeholders is…

SRS: Site ranking system for hazardous chemical and radioactive waste

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rechard, R.P.; Chu, M.S.Y.; Brown, S.L.

1988-05-01

This report describes the rationale and presents instructions for a site ranking system (SRS). SRS ranks hazardous chemical and radioactive waste sites by scoring important and readily available factors that influence risk to human health. Using SRS, sites can be ranked for purposes of detailed site investigations. SRS evaluates the relative risk as a combination of potentially exposed population, chemical toxicity, and potential exposure of release from a waste site; hence, SRS uses the same concepts found in a detailed assessment of health risk. Basing SRS on the concepts of risk assessment tends to reduce the distortion of results foundmore » in other ranking schemes. More importantly, a clear logic helps ensure the successful application of the ranking procedure and increases its versatility when modifications are necessary for unique situations. Although one can rank sites using a detailed risk assessment, it is potentially costly because of data and resources required. SRS is an efficient approach to provide an order-of-magnitude ranking, requiring only readily available data (often only descriptive) and hand calculations. Worksheets are included to make the system easier to understand and use. 88 refs., 19 figs., 58 tabs.« less

Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Lauri K.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Duncan, Matthew G.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

Deep learning in breast cancer risk assessment: evaluation of fine-tuned convolutional neural networks on a clinical dataset of FFDMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Mendel, Kayla R.; Lee, John H.; Lan, Li; Giger, Maryellen L.

2018-02-01

We evaluated the potential of deep learning in the assessment of breast cancer risk using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) fine-tuned on full-field digital mammographic (FFDM) images. This study included 456 clinical FFDM cases from two high-risk datasets: BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers (53 cases) and unilateral cancer patients (75 cases), and a low-risk dataset as the control group (328 cases). All FFDM images (12-bit quantization and 100 micron pixel) were acquired with a GE Senographe 2000D system and were retrospectively collected under an IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant protocol. Regions of interest of 256x256 pixels were selected from the central breast region behind the nipple in the craniocaudal projection. VGG19 pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset was used to classify the images either as high-risk or as low-risk subjects. The last fully-connected layer of pre-trained VGG19 was fine-tuned on FFDM images for breast cancer risk assessment. Performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in the task of distinguishing between high-risk and low-risk subjects. AUC values of 0.84 (SE=0.05) and 0.72 (SE=0.06) were obtained in the task of distinguishing between the BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers and low-risk women and between unilateral cancer patients and low-risk women, respectively. Deep learning with CNNs appears to be able to extract parenchymal characteristics directly from FFDMs which are relevant to the task of distinguishing between cancer risk populations, and therefore has potential to aid clinicians in assessing mammographic parenchymal patterns for cancer risk assessment.

A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental Exposures to Children (Final)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA released the final report entitled, A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental Exposures to Children, which examines the impact of potential exposures during developmental lifestages and subsequent lifestages, while emphasizing the iterative nature of the a...

76 FR 50904 - Thiamethoxam; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-17

... exposure and risk. A separate assessment was done for clothianidin. i. Acute exposure. Quantitative acute... not expected to pose a cancer risk, a quantitative dietary exposure assessment for the purposes of...-dietary sources of post application exposure to obtain an estimate of potential combined exposure. These...

Selected Issues Associated with the Risk Assessment Process for Pesticides with Persistent, Bioaccumulative, and Toxic Characteristics

EPA Science Inventory

This Scientific Advisory Panel meeting will address selected scientific issues associated with assessing the potential ecological risks resulting from use of a pesticide active ingredient which has persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) characteristics. EPA will pose speci...

DEVELOPMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL SLUDGE INCINERATION

EPA Science Inventory

This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. he sludge management practices addressed by this series include land application practices, distribution an...

DEVELOPMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL SLUDGE LANDFILLING

EPA Science Inventory

This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. he sludge management practices addressed by this series include land application practices, distribution an...

Patterns of Risk Using an Integrated Spatial Multi-Hazard Model (PRISM Model)

EPA Science Inventory

Multi-hazard risk assessment has long centered on small scale needs, whereby a single community or group of communities’ exposures are assessed to determine potential mitigation strategies. While this approach has advanced the understanding of hazard interactions, it is li...

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.

PubMed

Challinor, Andy J; Adger, W Neil; Benton, Tim G; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-13

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment. © 2018 The Author(s).

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G.; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-01

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

Forest fuels and landscape-level fire risk assessment of the ozark highlands, Missouri

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2007-01-01

In this paper we describe a fire risk assessment of the Ozark Highlands. Fire risk is rated using information on ignition potential and fuel hazard. Fuel loading, a component of the fire hazard module, is weakly predicted (r2 = 0.19) by site- and landscape-level attributes. Fuel loading does not significantly differ between Ozark ecological...

Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

2012-01-01

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

Potential use of an arthropod database to support the non-target risk assessment and monitoring of transgenic plants.

PubMed

Romeis, Jörg; Meissle, Michael; Alvarez-Alfageme, Fernando; Bigler, Franz; Bohan, David A; Devos, Yann; Malone, Louise A; Pons, Xavier; Rauschen, Stefan

2014-12-01

Worldwide, plants obtained through genetic modification are subject to a risk analysis and regulatory approval before they can enter the market. An area of concern addressed in environmental risk assessments is the potential of genetically modified (GM) plants to adversely affect non-target arthropods and the valued ecosystem services they provide. Environmental risk assessments are conducted case-by-case for each GM plant taking into account the plant species, its trait(s), the receiving environments into which the GM plant is to be released and its intended uses, and the combination of these characteristics. To facilitate the non-target risk assessment of GM plants, information on arthropods found in relevant agro-ecosystems in Europe has been compiled in a publicly available database of bio-ecological information during a project commissioned by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Using different hypothetical GM maize case studies, we demonstrate how the information contained in the database can assist in identifying valued species that may be at risk and in selecting suitable species for laboratory testing, higher-tier studies, as well as post-market environmental monitoring.

Human health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in smoked fish species from markets in Southern Nigeria.

PubMed

Tongo, Isioma; Ogbeide, Ozekeke; Ezemonye, Lawrence

2017-01-01

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) levels in four commonly consumed smoked fish species from markets in Southern Nigeria were assessed to evaluate possible human health risks associated with consumption. Varying levels of PAH congeners were observed in the fish tissues with the highest total concentration of PAHs in Scomber scombrus . High concentrations of benzo(a)pyrene was observed in Clarias gariepinus and Ethmalosa fimbriata with values above the guideline value of 0.05 mg/kg. The Dietary Daily Intake (DDI) value for total PAHs (∑PAHs) was highest for S. scombrus while the DDI value for the total carcinogenic PAHs (∑CPAHs) was highest for E. fimbriata . Carcinogenic human health risk assessment using carcinogenic toxic equivalents (TEQ), indicated that consumption of E. fimbriata has a higher potential to cause carcinogenic risks. TEQ values for all the fish species were however, below the estimated screening value (SV) of 3.556 mg/kg, while the estimated cumulative excess cancer risk (ECR) for E. fimbriata and C. gariepinus and PAH4 index for all the assessed fish species exceeded threshold values indicating potential carcinogenic risk from consumption.

Casting a wider net for countermeasure R&D funding decisions.

PubMed

Klotz, Lynn

2007-12-01

Among potential bioweapons attacks, endemic infectious diseases (that is, those naturally occurring diseases that afflict us every year), and a potential influenza pandemic, how should we apportion funding and resources for basic research and countermeasure development? To address this question, I argue for a "combined risk assessment" that considers bioweapons attacks with natural pandemics and endemic infectious disease. At present, risk assessments for bioweapons attacks are carried out separately from the assessments long carried out for endemic infectious diseases to make public health and medical care decisions. One result of this separation is that funding decisions may be unduly influenced by an overblown fear of a big bioweapons attack and by political whim. The result of the simplified combined risk assessment presented here argues for more funding and resources for endemic infectious disease and for placing biodefense against anthrax and other bioweapons in a place lower in the risk hierarchy. Since the assessment here considers only fatalities to make the point that our priorities are skewed, the conclusions are only a "first word" on the subject, far from the last. Furthermore, the impact of other issues on priorities, such as national and international policy, is not considered. It is a call for a debate on the public stage of the policy and other rationale and the quantitative risk assessment arguments that now place bioweapons attacks at the top of our risk ranking.

A comparative evaluation of the regulation of GM crops or products containing dsRNA and suggested improvements to risk assessments.

PubMed

Heinemann, Jack A; Agapito-Tenfen, Sarah Zanon; Carman, Judy A

2013-05-01

Changing the nature, kind and quantity of particular regulatory-RNA molecules through genetic engineering can create biosafety risks. While some genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are intended to produce new regulatory-RNA molecules, these may also arise in other GMOs not intended to express them. To characterise, assess and then mitigate the potential adverse effects arising from changes to RNA requires changing current approaches to food or environmental risk assessments of GMOs. We document risk assessment advice offered to government regulators in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil during official risk evaluations of GM plants for use as human food or for release into the environment (whether for field trials or commercial release), how the regulator considered those risks, and what that experience teaches us about the GMO risk assessment framework. We also suggest improvements to the process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment Document for Coke Oven MACT Residual Risk

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The residual risk analysis described in this report addresses four coke plants subject to the 1993coke oven MACT standards (40 CFR Part 63 Subpart L) and estimates potential risks due to HAPsemissions from facilities involved in coking operations.

Incorporating climate and ocean change into extinction risk assessments for 82 coral species.

PubMed

Brainard, Russell E; Weijerman, Mariska; Eakin, C Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, Gregory A; Dunlap, Matthew J; Birkeland, Charles

2013-12-01

Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration-requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert-opinion threat-based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species-specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species' extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data-limited species likely to be affected by global-scale threats. Incorporación del Cambio Climático y Oceánico en Estudios de Riesgo de Extinción para 82 Especies de Coral. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Mineralogical, chemical and toxicological characterization of urban air particles.

PubMed

Čupr, Pavel; Flegrová, Zuzana; Franců, Juraj; Landlová, Linda; Klánová, Jana

2013-04-01

Systematic characterization of morphological, mineralogical, chemical and toxicological properties of various size fractions of the atmospheric particulate matter was a main focus of this study together with an assessment of the human health risks they pose. Even though near-ground atmospheric aerosols have been a subject of intensive research in recent years, data integrating chemical composition of particles and health risks are still scarce and the particle size aspect has not been properly addressed yet. Filling this gap, however, is necessary for reliable risk assessment. A high volume ambient air sampler equipped with a multi-stage cascade impactor was used for size specific particle collection, and all 6 fractions were a subject of detailed characterization of chemical (PAHs) and mineralogical composition of the particles, their mass size distribution and genotoxic potential of organic extracts. Finally, the risk level for inhalation exposure associated to the carcinogenic character of the studied PAHs has been assessed. The finest fraction (<0.45 μm) exhibited the highest mass, highest active surface, highest amount of associated PAHs and also highest direct and indirect genotoxic potentials in our model air sample. Risk assessment of inhalation scenario indicates the significant cancer risk values in PM 1.5 size fraction. This presented new approach proved to be a useful tool for human health risk assessment in the areas with significant levels of air dust concentration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Cancer risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the soils from Jiaozhou Bay wetland.

PubMed

Yang, Wei; Lang, Yinhai; Li, Guoliang

2014-10-01

To estimate the cancer risk exposed to the PAHs in Jiaozhou Bay wetland soils, a probabilistic health risk assessment was conducted based on Monte Carlo simulations. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the input variables that contribute most to the cancer risk assessment. Three age groups were selected to estimate the cancer risk via four exposure pathways (soil ingestion, food ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation). The results revealed that the 95th percentiles cancer risks for children, teens and adults were 9.11×10(-6), 1.04×10(-5) and 7.08×10(-5), respectively. The cancer risks for three age groups were at acceptable range (10(-6)-10(-4)), indicating no potential cancer risk. For different exposure pathways, food ingestion was the major exposure pathway. For 7 carcinogenic PAHs, the cancer risk caused by BaP was the highest. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the parameters of exposure duration (ED) and sum of converted 7 carcinogenic PAHs concentrations in soil based on BaPeq (CSsoil) contribute most to the total uncertainty. This study provides a comprehensive risk assessment on carcinogenic PAHs in Jiaozhou Bay wetland soils, and might be useful in providing potential strategies of cancer risk prevention and controlling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment principle for engineered nanotechnology in food and drug.

PubMed

Hwang, Myungsil; Lee, Eun Ji; Kweon, Se Young; Park, Mi Sun; Jeong, Ji Yoon; Um, Jun Ho; Kim, Sun Ah; Han, Bum Suk; Lee, Kwang Ho; Yoon, Hae Jung

2012-06-01

While the ability to develop nanomaterials and incorporate them into products is advancing rapidly worldwide, understanding of the potential health safety effects of nanomaterials has proceeded at a much slower pace. Since 2008, Korea Food and Drug Administration (KFDA) started an investigation to prepare "Strategic Action Plan" to evaluate safety and nano risk management associated with foods, drugs, medical devices and cosmetics using nano-scale materials. Although there are some studies related to potential risk of nanomaterials, physical-chemical characterization of nanomaterials is not clear yet and these do not offer enough information due to their limitations. Their uncertainties make it impossible to determine whether nanomaterials are actually hazardous to human. According to the above mention, we have some problems to conduct the human exposure risk assessment currently. On the other hand, uncertainty about safety may lead to polarized public debate and to businesses unwillingness for further nanotechnology investigation. Therefore, the criteria and methods to assess possible adverse effects of nanomaterials have been vigorously taken into consideration by many international organizations: the World Health Organization, the Organization for Economic and Commercial Development and the European Commission. The object of this study was to develop risk assessment principles for safety management of future nanoproducts and also to identify areas of research to strengthen risk assessment for nanomaterials. The research roadmaps which were proposed in this study will be helpful to fill up the current gaps in knowledge relevant nano risk assessment.

Health Heritage© a web-based tool for the collection and assessment of family health history: initial user experience and analytic validity.

PubMed

Cohn, W F; Ropka, M E; Pelletier, S L; Barrett, J R; Kinzie, M B; Harrison, M B; Liu, Z; Miesfeldt, S; Tucker, A L; Worrall, B B; Gibson, J; Mullins, I M; Elward, K S; Franko, J; Guterbock, T M; Knaus, W A

2010-01-01

A detailed family health history is currently the most potentially useful tool for diagnosis and risk assessment in clinical genetics. We developed and evaluated the usability and analytic validity of a patient-driven web-based family health history collection and analysis tool. Health Heritage(©) guides users through the collection of their family health history by relative, generates a pedigree, completes risk assessment, stratification, and recommendations for 89 conditions. We compared the performance of Health Heritage to that of Usual Care using a nonrandomized cohort trial of 109 volunteers. We contrasted the completeness and sensitivity of family health history collection and risk assessments derived from Health Heritage and Usual Care to those obtained by genetic counselors and genetic assessment teams. Nearly half (42%) of the Health Heritage participants reported discovery of health risks; 63% found the information easy to understand and 56% indicated it would change their health behavior. Health Heritage consistently outperformed Usual Care in the completeness and accuracy of family health history collection, identifying 60% of the elevated risk conditions specified by the genetic team versus 24% identified by Usual Care. Health Heritage also had greater sensitivity than Usual Care when comparing the identification of risks. These results suggest a strong role for automated family health history collection and risk assessment and underscore the potential of these data to serve as the foundation for comprehensive, cost-effective personalized genomic medicine. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Construction of a Risk Assessment Model for Rainfall-Induced Landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chung

2013-04-01

The unstable geology and steep terrain in the mountainous regions of Taiwan make these areas vulnerable to landslides and debris flow during typhoons and heavy rains. According to the Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan, there were 500 typhoons and over one thousand storms in Taiwan between 1897 and 2011. Natural disasters caused 3.5 billion USD of damage between 1983 and 2011. Thus, the construction of risk assessment model for landslides is essential to disaster prevention. This study employed genetic adaptive neural networks (GANN) with texture analysis in the classification of high-resolution satellite images from which data related to surface conditions in mountainous areas of Taiwan were derived. Ten landslide hazard potential factors are included: slope, geology, elevation, distance from the fault, distance from water, terrain roughness, slope roughness, effective accumulated rainfall and developing situation. By using correlation test, GANN, weight analysis and dangerous value method, levels and probabilities of landslide of the research areas are presented. Then, through geographic information system the landslide potential map is plotted to distinguish high potential regions from low potential regions. Through field surveys, interviews with district officials and a review of relevant literature, the probability of a sediment disaster was estimated as well as the vulnerability of the villages concerned and the degree to which these villages were prepared, to construct a risk evaluation model. The regional risk map was plotted with the help of GIS and the landslide assessment model. The risk assessment model can be used by authorities to make provisions for high-risk areas, to reduce the number of casualties and social costs of sediment disasters.

An ecological risk assessment of nonnative boas and pythons as potentially invasive species in the United States.

PubMed

Reed, Robert N

2005-06-01

The growing international trade in live wildlife has the potential to result in continuing establishment of nonnative animal populations in the United States. Snakes may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species, as exemplified by the decimation of Guam's vertebrate fauna by the accidentally introduced brown tree snake. Herein, ecological and commercial predictors of the likelihood of establishment of invasive populations were used to model risk associated with legal commercial imports of 23 species of boas, pythons, and relatives into the United States during the period 1989-2000. Data on ecological variables were collected from multiple sources, while data on commercial variables were collated from import records maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Results of the risk-assessment models indicate that species including boa constrictors (Boa constrictor), ball pythons (Python regius), and reticulated pythons (P. reticulatus) may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species. Recommendations for reducing risk of establishment of invasive populations of snakes and/or pathogens include temporary quarantine of imports to increase detection rates of nonnative pathogens, increasing research attention to reptile pathogens, reducing the risk that nonnative snakes will reach certain areas with high numbers of federally listed species (such as the Florida Keys), and attempting to better educate individuals purchasing reptiles.

[LaboRisCh: an algorithm for assessment of health risks due to chemicals in research laboratories and similar workplaces].

PubMed

Strafella, Elisabetta; Bracci, M; Calisti, R; Governa, M; Santarelli, Lory

2008-01-01

Chemical risk assessment in research laboratories is complicated by factors such as the large number of agents to be considered, each present in small quantities, and the very short and erratic periods of exposure, all of which make reliable environmental and biological monitoring particularly difficult and at times impossible. In such environments, a preliminary evaluation procedure based on algorithms would be useful to establish the hazard potential of a given situation and to guide the appropriate intervention. The LaboRisCh model was expressly designed to assess the health risk due to chemicals in research laboratories and similar workplaces. The model is based on the calculation of the value of a synthetic single risk index for each substance and compound found in a laboratory and, subsequently, of a further synthetic single risk index for the whole laboratory or, where required, a section thereof. This makes LaboRisCh a compromise between need for information, ease of use, and resources required for the assessment. The risk index includes several items, chiefly the physical and chemical properties, intrinsic hazard potential, amount, dilution, and time of exposure to each agent; waste management; possible interactions; presence and efficiency of collective and individual protection devices, and staff training in good laboratory practices. The value of the synthetic single index corresponds to one of three areas: no risk (green), possible risk (yellow), and certain risk (red). Preliminary data confirm the model. LaboRisCh appears to be a reliable method for chemical risk assessment in research laboratories and similar workplaces.

Analysis and classification of the tools for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines.

PubMed

Paques, Joseph-Jean; Gauthier, François; Perez, Alejandro

2007-01-01

To assess and plan future risk-analysis research projects, 275 documents describing methods and tools for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines or with other sectors such as the military, and the nuclear and aeronautics industries, etc., were collected. These documents were in the format of published books or papers, standards, technical guides and company procedures collected throughout industry. From the collected documents, 112 documents were selected for analysis; 108 methods applied or potentially applicable for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines were analyzed and classified. This paper presents the main quantitative results of the analysis of the methods and tools.

Application of Bioassays in Toxicological Hazard, Risk and Impact Assessment of Dredged Sediments

EPA Science Inventory

Given the potential environmental consequences of dumped dredged harbour sediments it is vital to establish the potential risks from exposure before disposal at sea. Currently, European legislation for disposal of contaminated sediments at sea is based on chemical analysis of a l...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.

PubMed

Pang, Hao; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Schaffner, Donald W; Pradhan, Abani K

2017-02-01

Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wassom, J.S.; Lu, P.Y.

Society today is faced with new health risk situations that have been brought about by recent scientific and technical advances. Federal and state governments are required to assess the many potential health risks to exposed populations from the products (chemicals) and by-products (pollutants) of these advances. Because a sound analysis of any potential health risk should be based on the use of relevant information, it behooves those individuals responsible for making the risk assessments to know where to obtain needed information. This paper reviews the origins of toxicology information systems and explores the specialized information center concept that was proposedmore » in 1963 as a means of providing ready access to scientific and technical information. As a means of illustrating this concept, the operation of one specialized information center (the Environmental Mutagen Information Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory) will be discussed. Insights into how toxicological information resources came into being, their design and makeup, will be of value to those seeking to acquire information for risk assessment purposes. 7 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.« less

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less

Assessment of the Risks Presented by Carbon Fiber Composites Released From Motor Vehicle Fires

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-03-01

A risk assessment was conducted to estimate the potential losses through 1993 due to the usage of carbon fiber (CF) composites in U.S. motor vehicles, including automobiles and trucks. A methodology was developed to compute estimated dollar losses by...

Interpretation of the Ecological Significance of Atrazine Stream-Water Concentrations Using a Statistically-Designed Monitoring Program

EPA Science Inventory

A risk assessment was conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as part of the 2003 Interim Registration Eligibility Document (IRED) on atrazine. The assessment indicated potential community- and population-level risk to sensitive aquatic ecosystems at prolonged ...

Utilizing Toxicogenomic Data to Understand Chemical Mechanism of Action in Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

A recent National Academy of Sciences report pointed to the strong potential for genomic technologies to contribute to the risk assessment process. The report, however, also acknowledged that neither has the full impact of genomic technology been realized nor has it been broadly ...

Assessment of the risks associated with the use of carbon fibers in surface transportation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-06-01

This report presents the results of an assessment of the potential risks associated with the use of carbon-fiber composites in the surface transportation system and the development of a data base on the vulnerability of the surface transportation sys...

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxic...

DEVELOPMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR SURFACE DISPOSAL OF MUNICIPAL SLUDGE

EPA Science Inventory

This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. he sludge management practices addressed by this series include distribution and marketing programs, landfi...

Approaches for Increasing Acceptance of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models in Public Health Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have great potential for application in regulatory and non-regulatory public health risk assessment. The development and application of PBPK models in chemical toxicology has grown steadily since their emergence in the 1980s. Ho...

DEGRADATION AND TOXIC ASSESSMENT OF WEATHERED TOXAPHENE IN SOILS

EPA Science Inventory

The risk assessment of weathered toxaphene is currently being investigated by NCEA-Cin in an effort to evaluate the potential health risks from exposure to complex mixture of weathered chemicals under both anaerobic and aerobic conditions. The goal of this effort is to develop me...

Towards bioavailability-based soil criteria: Past, present and future perspectives

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bioavailability has been used as a key indicator in chemical risk assessment, yet it is a poorly quantified risk factor. Worldwide, the framework used to assess potentially contaminated sites is similar and the decisions are based on threshold contaminant concentration. The uncertainty in the defin...

Collaborative risk governance in informal urban areas: The case of Wallacedene temporary relocation area

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM) is an emancipatory approach that aims to empower local communities in reducing their own risks. A community risk assessment (CRA) is an essential element of CBDRM, incorporating highly participatory processes of hazard identification and vulnerability analysis. By incorporating local knowledge and insights, together with those contributed by other external role players, the nature of local risks can be more accurately identified, giving consideration to their causal factors, the nature of their realised impacts or potential effects on a local community and the challenges posed in addressing them. Reflecting on the process and outcomes of a CRA conducted in an informal settlement in the Cape Town metropolitan area, this article describes how one such risk assessment contributed to building local agency through a process of collaborative engagement. Offered as an example of possible best practice, it illustrates both the immediate and potentially longer term benefits to be derived from such a collaborative process, suggesting that a community-based risk assessment may contribute significantly to building more resilient communities. It concludes with a consideration of the challenges of sustaining longer term risk reduction efforts.

Assessment and management of human health risk from toxic metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban stormwater arising from anthropogenic activities and traffic congestion.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-02-01

Toxic metals (TMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban stormwater pose risk to human health, thereby constraining its reuse potential. Based on the hypothesis that stormwater quality is primarily influenced by anthropogenic activities and traffic congestion, the primary focus of the research study was to analyse the impacts on human health risk from TMs and PAHs in urban stormwater and thereby develop a quantitative risk assessment model. The study found that anthropogenic activities and traffic congestion exert influence on the risk posed by TMs and PAHs in stormwater from commercial and residential areas. Motor vehicle related businesses (FVS) and traffic congestion (TC) were identified as two parameters which need to be included as independent variables to improve the model. Based on the study outcomes, approaches for mitigating the risk associated with TMs and PAHs in urban stormwater are discussed. Additionally, a roadmap is presented for the assessment and management of the risk arising from these pollutants. The study outcomes are expected to contribute to reducing the human health risk associated urban stormwater pollution and thereby enhance its reuse potential. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

2011-01-01

An effective risk assessment system is needed to address the threat posed by an active or passive insider who, acting alone or in collusion, could attempt diversion or theft of nuclear material. The material control and accountability (MC&A) system effectiveness tool (MSET) is a self-assessment or inspection tool utilizing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology to calculate the system effectiveness of a nuclear facility's material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) system. The MSET process is divided into four distinct and separate parts: (1) Completion of the questionnaire that assembles information about the operations of every aspect of the MPC&A system; (2)more » Conversion of questionnaire data into numeric values associated with risk; (3) Analysis of the numeric data utilizing the MPC&A fault tree and the SAPHIRE computer software; and (4) Self-assessment using the MSET reports to perform the effectiveness evaluation of the facility's MPC&A system. The process should lead to confirmation that mitigating features of the system effectively minimize the threat, or it could lead to the conclusion that system improvements or upgrades are necessary to achieve acceptable protection against the threat. If the need for system improvements or upgrades is indicated when the system is analyzed, MSET provides the capability to evaluate potential or actual system improvements or upgrades. A facility's MC&A system can be evaluated at a point in time. The system can be reevaluated after upgrades are implemented or after other system changes occur. The total system or specific subareas within the system can be evaluated. Areas of potential system improvement can be assessed to determine where the most beneficial and cost-effective improvements should be made. Analyses of risk importance factors show that sustainability is essential for optimal performance and reveals where performance degradation has the greatest impact on total system risk. The risk importance factors show the amount of risk reduction achievable with potential upgrades and the amount of risk reduction achieved after upgrades are completed. Applying the risk assessment tool gives support to budget prioritization by showing where budget support levels must be sustained for MC&A functions most important to risk. Results of the risk assessment are also useful in supporting funding justifications for system improvements that significantly reduce system risk. The functional model, the system risk assessment tool, and the facility evaluation questionnaire are valuable educational tools for MPC&A personnel. These educational tools provide a framework for ongoing dialogue between organizations regarding the design, development, implementation, operation, assessment, and sustainability of MPC&A systems. An organization considering the use of MSET as an analytical tool for evaluating the effectiveness of its MPC&A system will benefit from conducting a complete MSET exercise at an existing nuclear facility.« less

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central Greece. Moreover, remote sensing has proven very effective in delineating spatial variability and features in drought monitoring and assessment.

Human health risk assessment in restoring safe and productive use of abandoned contaminated sites.

PubMed

Wcisło, Eleonora; Bronder, Joachim; Bubak, Anicenta; Rodríguez-Valdés, Eduardo; Gallego, José Luis R

2016-09-01

In Europe soil contamination has been recognized as a serious problem. The needs to remediate contaminated sites are not questionable, although the remediation actions are often hindered by their very high financial costs. On the other hand, the abandoned contaminated sites may have the potential for redevelopment and creating conditions appropriate for their productive reuse bringing social, economic and environmental benefits. The main concern associated with the contaminated sites is their potential adverse health impact. Therefore, in the process of contaminated site redevelopment the risk assessment and the subsequent risk management decisions will play a crucial role. The main objective of this study was to illustrate the role of the human health risk assessment (HRA) in supporting site remediation and reuse decisions. To exemplify the significance of the HRA process in this field the Nitrastur site, located in Asturias, Spain was used. Risks resulting from soil contamination with arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), mercury (Hg), zinc (Zn) and lead (Pb) were assessed under three potential future land use patterns: industrial, residential and recreational. The results of the study indicated that soil at the Nitrastur site might pose non-cancer and cancer risks to potential future receptors - industrial workers, residents and recreational users. Arsenic and lead are the main substances responsible for the health risk and the primary drivers of remedial decisions at the site. The highest total cancer risks were observed under the residential scenario, followed in descending order by the recreational and industrial ones. The remedial maps illustrate in which areas remediation activities are required, depending on a given land use pattern. The obtained results may be used to develop, analyse, compare and select the remedial options within the intended land use pattern. They may also be used to support the decisions concerning the reuse of the site or to create different redevelopment plans for different parts of the site. The study may help improve understanding and interaction between risk assessors and risk managers which are necessary to make proper, fully informed decisions enhancing public trust and credibility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient: augmenting clinical suicide risk assessment with structured instruments.

PubMed

Homaifar, Beeta; Matarazzo, Bridget; Wortzel, Hal S

2013-09-01

This column is the second in a series presenting a model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient. As discussed in the first part of the series, the model involves several elements including augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. This column explores in more detail how to augment clinical risk assessment with structured instruments. Unstructured clinical interviews have the potential to miss important aspects of suicide risk assessment. By augmenting the free-form clinical interview with structured instruments that demonstrate reliability and validity, a more nuanced and multifaceted approach to suicide risk assessment is achieved. Incorporating structured instruments into practice also serves a medicolegal function, since these instruments may become a living part of the medical record, establishing baseline levels of suicidal thoughts and behaviors and facilitating future clinical determinations regarding safety needs. We describe several instruments used in a multidisciplinary suicide consultation service, each of which has demonstrated relevance to suicide risk assessment and screening, ease of administration, and strong psychometric properties. In addition, we emphasize the importance of viewing suicide risk assessment as an ongoing process rather than as a singular event. Finally, we discuss special considerations in the evolving practice of risk assessment.

The Short- to Medium-Term Predictive Accuracy of Static and Dynamic Risk Assessment Measures in a Secure Forensic Hospital

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chu, Chi Meng; Thomas, Stuart D. M.; Ogloff, James R. P.; Daffern, Michael

2013-01-01

Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study…

End-of-life management of corrosive drywall.

PubMed

Kim, Hwidong; Krause, Max J; Townsend, Timothy

2016-11-01

Recently, gypsum drywall products imported to the United States (US) were found to cause metal corrosion and tarnishing in some homes, often necessitating that this drywall be discarded. Research assessed the potential implications of recycling and landfilling corrosive/imported drywall. Samples of corrosive drywall were collected from homes in Florida, US and these characteristics were assessed relative to domestically-produced drywall purchased from retail outlets. The total and synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) leachable heavy metal concentrations were measured and compared to risk-based regulatory thresholds to assess the possible land application risk. In a majority of samples, concentrations were below levels of regulatory concern. The mean concentration of several elements exceeded the thresholds in a few samples for the direct exposure assessment (As) and the groundwater leaching assessment (Al, B, Hg, Mn, Sr and V); but the results did not suggest that corrosive drywall would present a greater risk than domestic drywall. To assess landfilling concerns, the potential for sulfur gases emissions upon disposal was evaluated. Experiments indicated that corrosive drywall would not pose a greater risk of long-term H2S emissions compared to domestic drywall. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating chemical, toxicological and clinical research to assess the potential of reducing health risks associated with cigarette smoking through reducing toxicant emissions.

PubMed

McAdam, Kevin; Murphy, James; Eldridge, Alison; Meredith, Clive; Proctor, Christopher

2018-06-01

The concept of a risk continuum for tobacco and nicotine products has been proposed, which differentiates products according to their propensity to reduce toxicant exposure and risk. Cigarettes are deemed the most risky and medicinal nicotine the least. We assessed whether a Reduced-Toxicant Prototype (RTP) cigarette could sufficiently reduce exposure to toxicants versus conventional cigarettes to be considered a distinct category in the risk continuum. We present findings from both pre-clinical and clinical studies in order to examine the potential for reduced smoke toxicant emissions to lower health risks associated with cigarette smoking. We conclude that current toxicant reducing technologies are unable to reduce toxicant emissions sufficiently to manifest beneficial disease-relevant changes in smokers. These findings point to a minimum toxicant exposure standard that future potentially reduced risk products would need to meet to be considered for full biological assessment. The RTP met WHO TobReg proposed limits on cigarette toxicant emissions, however the absence of beneficial disease relevant changes in smokers after six months reduced toxicant cigarette use, does not provide evidence that these regulatory proposals will positively impact risks of smoking related diseases. Greater toxicant reductions, such as those that can be achieved in next generation products e.g. tobacco heating products and electronic cigarettes are likely to be necessary to clearly reduce risks compared with conventional cigarettes. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawar, R.

2016-12-01

Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management decisions. A systematic uncertainty quantification approach can been used to understand how uncertain parameters associated with different subsystems (e.g., reservoir permeability, wellbore cement permeability, wellbore density, etc.) impact the overall site performance predictions.

New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain areas: Regional intercomparison of current and future risks from impact waves due to rock/ice avalanches in the Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaub, Y.; Huggel, C.; Serraino, M.; Haeberli, W.

2012-04-01

The changes in high-mountain environments are increasingly fast and complex. GIS-based models of the Swiss Alps show that numerous topographic overdeepenings are likely to appear on progressively exposed glacier beds, which are considered as potential sites of future lake formation. In many cases these newly forming lakes will be situated in an over-steepened and destabilized high-mountain environment and are, therefore, prone to impact waves from landslides. The risk of glacier lake outburst floods, endangering infrastructure, residential areas and persons further downvalley, is increasing with further lake formation and glacier recession. This risk may persist for many decades if not centuries. Future-oriented hazard assessments have to be integrative and must deal with all possible process chains. Reference studies and methodologies are still scarce, however. We present an approach to compare risks resulting from high-mountain lakes in the Swiss Alps amongst each other. Already existing lakes are thereby as much included in the analysis as future ones. The presented risk assessment approach integrates the envisaged high-mountain hazard process chain with present and future socio-economic conditions. Applying the concept of integral risk management, the hazard and damage potentials have to be analyzed. The areas that feature the topographic potential for rock/iceavalanches to reach a lake were analyzed regarding their susceptibility to slope failure including the factors slope inclination, permafrost occurrence, glacier recession and bedrock lithology. Together with the analysis of the lakes (volume and runout path of potential outburst floods), the hazard analysis of the process chain was completed. As an example, high long-term hazard potentials in the Swiss Alps have, for instance, to be expected in the area of the Great Aletsch glacier. A methodology for the assessment of the damage potential was elaborated and will be presented. In order to estimate the location of the largest damage potentials, driving forces of different spatial development scenarios for the Swiss Alps will be implemented in a land allocation model for the Swiss Alps. By bringing together hazard, exposure and vulnerability analyses, a risk assessment for the entire Swiss Alps regarding lake-outburst floods triggered by impacts of rock/ice avalanches can be conducted for today, the middle of the century and even beyond.

Assessing the potential impact of non-proprietary drug copies on quality of medicine and treatment in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis: the experience with fingolimod.

PubMed

Correale, Jorge; Chiquete, Erwin; Milojevic, Snezana; Frider, Nadina; Bajusz, Imre

2014-01-01

Fingolimod is a once-daily oral treatment for relapsing multiple sclerosis, the proprietary production processes of which are tightly controlled, owing to its susceptibility to contamination by impurities, including genotoxic impurities. Many markets produce nonproprietary medicines; assessing their efficacy and safety is difficult as regulators may approve nonproprietary drugs without bioequivalence data, genotoxic evaluation, or risk management plans (RMPs). This assessment is especially important for fingolimod given its solubility/bioavailability profile, genotoxicity risk, and low-dose final product (0.5 mg). This paper presents an evaluation of the quality of proprietary and nonproprietary fingolimod variants. Proprietary fingolimod was used as a reference substance against which eleven nonproprietary fingolimod copies were assessed. The microparticle size distribution of each compound was assessed by laser light diffraction, and inorganic impurity content by sulfated ash testing. Heavy metals content was quantified using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry, and levels of unspecified impurities by high-performance liquid chromatography. Solubility was assessed in a range of solvents at different pH values. Key information from the fingolimod RMP is also presented. Nonproprietary fingolimod variants exhibited properties out of proprietary or internationally accepted specifications, including differences in particle size distribution and levels of impurities such as heavy metals. For microparticle size and heavy metals, all tested fingolimod copies were out-of-specification by several-fold magnitudes. Proprietary fingolimod has a well-defined RMP, highlighting known and potential mid- to long-term safety risks, and risk-minimization and pharmacovigilance procedures. Nonproprietary fingolimod copies produced by processes less well controlled than or altered from proprietary production processes may reduce product reproducibility and quality, potentially presenting risks to patients. Safety data and risk-minimization strategies for proprietary fingolimod may not apply to the nonproprietary fingolimod copies evaluated here. Market authorization of nonproprietary fingolimod copies should require an appropriate RMP to minimize risks to patients.

Development of More Cost-Effective Methods for Long-Term Monitoring of Soil Vapor Intrusion to Indoor Air Using Quantitative Passive Diffusive-Adsorptive Sampling Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

challenging component of assessing human health risks associated with contaminated soil and groundwater since the late 1990s, during which time...and analysis. 1.3 REGULATORY DRIVERS Regulatory guidance for assessment and management of risks associated with VI has been issued by at least 27...requirements to assess potential human health risks , and this possibility exists where VOCs are present in the subsurface near occupied buildings

Development of a Multi-Hazard Landscape for Exposure and Risk Interpretation

EPA Science Inventory

A complete accounting of potential hazard exposures is critical in the development of any model meant to depict the resilience of a system. This allows for a clear ledger to both assess current risk status along with potential ways to improve resilience. The US EPA is currently...

Direct Assistance: USAID Has Taken Positive Action to Assess Afghan Ministries’ Ability to Manage Donor Funds, but Concerns Remain

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

with the adverse event’s potential impact , ranging from negligible to catastrophic. Appendix V includes a matrix of how USAID/Afghanistan assigns risk...International Development (USAID) assigns risk ratings based on potential impact and probability of occurrence of an identified risk. The impact measures...frequent. Combining impact and probability factors categorize risk clusters of critical, high, medium and low categories. Although subjective, it is

Improving Communication About Potentially Catastrophic Risks of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, R. E. T.; Stern, N. H.

2014-12-01

Scientific assessments of future climate change tend to focus on central estimates and may understate or ignore the significance of low probability outcomes that may have extremely severe consequences. This relative neglect of tail risks is partly a result of traditions in prediction and forecasting, and conservatism about phenomena for which few data and information exist. The misinterpretation of such scientific assessments can have adverse results. Even though the central estimates of high emissions scenarios present obvious dangers, the tails of lower emissions scenarios still contain very serious risks which may be overlooked by policy-makers. Economic analyses may omit the possibility of catastrophic impacts, leading to substantial under-estimates of damage caused by climate change. So how do we avoid these shortcomings and achieve more effective communication about the risks of climate change? The scientific assessments of climate change differ in significant ways from the formal risk assessment methods successfully employed in other fields. We outline a 'good practice' approach to the identification, assessment and communication of potentially catastrophic risks based on examples from sectors such as civil engineering, national security and insurance. We illustrate how this 'good practice' approach could be applied to provide a better presentation of some catastrophic tail risks that are outlined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The risks we consider include the possibility of 'extreme' rises in temperature and sea level lying outside the central projections described in the report, and the plausibility of significant releases of methane from the thawing of permafrost. Using these illustrations, we examine how scientific researchers can improve their communication about climate change to assist decision-making, and how policy-makers and politicians might respond differently to alternative presentations of information about the tail risks.

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 2: Integrated loss of vehicle model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

1995-01-01

The application of the probabilistic risk assessment methodology to a Space Shuttle environment, particularly to the potential of losing the Shuttle during nominal operation is addressed. The different related concerns are identified and combined to determine overall program risks. A fault tree model is used to allocate system probabilities to the subsystem level. The loss of the vehicle due to failure to contain energetic gas and debris, to maintain proper propulsion and configuration is analyzed, along with the loss due to Orbiter, external tank failure, and landing failure or error.

Regulatory Science in Professional Education.

PubMed

Akiyama, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

In the field of pharmaceutical sciences, the subject of regulatory science (RS) includes pharmaceuticals, food, and living environments. For pharmaceuticals, considering the balance between efficacy and safety is a point required for public acceptance, and in that balance, more importance is given to efficacy in curing disease. For food, however, safety is the most important consideration for public acceptance because food should be essentially free of risk. To ensure food safety, first, any hazard that is an agent in food or condition of food with the potential to cause adverse health effects should be identified and characterized. Then the risk that it will affect public health is scientifically analyzed. This process is called risk assessment. Second, risk management should be conducted to reduce a risk that has the potential to affect public health found in a risk assessment. Furthermore, risk communication, which is the interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning risk and risk management among risk assessors, risk managers, consumers, and other interested parties, should be conducted. Food safety is ensured based on risk analysis consisting of the three components of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. RS in the field of food safety supports risk analysis, such as scientific research and development of test methods to evaluate food quality, efficacy, and safety. RS is also applied in the field of living environments because the safety of environmental chemical substances is ensured based on risk analysis, similar to that conducted for food.

Ecological risk assessment in a large river-reservoir. 5: Aerial insectivorous wildlife

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baron, L.A.; Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II

Risks to aerial insectivores (e.g., rough-winged swallows, little brown bats, and endangered gray bats) were assessed for the remedial investigation of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek (CR/PC) system. Adult mayflies and sediment were collected from three locations and analyzed for contaminants. Sediment-to-mayfly contaminant uptake factors were generated from these data and used to estimate contaminant concentrations in mayflies from 13 additional locations. Contaminants of potential ecological concern (COPECs) were identified by comparing exposure estimates generated using point estimates of parameter values to NOAELs. To incorporate the variation in exposure parameters and to provide a better estimate of the potential exposure, themore » exposure model was recalculated using Monte Carlo methods. The potential for adverse effects was estimated based on the comparison of exposure distribution and the LOAEL. The results of this assessment suggested that population-level effects to rough-winged swallows and little brown bats are considered unlikely. However, because gray bats are endangered, effects on individuals may be significant from foraging in limited subreaches of the CR/PC system. This assessment illustrates the advantage of an iterative approach to ecological risk assessments, using fewer conservative assumptions and more realistic modeling of exposure.« less

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

2016-11-01

The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K, Bois FY, Burgoon LD, Chiu WA, Crawford-Brown D, Crofton KM, DeVito M, Devlin RB, Edwards SW, Guyton KZ, Hattis D, Judson RS, Knight D, Krewski D, Lambert J, Maull EA, Mendrick D, Paoli GM, Patel CJ, Perkins EJ, Poje G, Portier CJ, Rusyn I, Schulte PA, Simeonov A, Smith MT, Thayer KA, Thomas RS, Thomas R, Tice RR, Vandenberg JJ, Villeneuve DL, Wesselkamper S, Whelan M, Whittaker C, White R, Xia M, Yauk C, Zeise L, Zhao J, DeWoskin RS. 2016. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment multiyear study-highlights of findings, applications to risk assessment, and future directions. Environ Health Perspect 124:1671-1682; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP233.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiltse, J.

Issues presented are related to classification of weight of evidence in cancer risk assessments. The focus in this paper is on lines of evidence used in constructing a conclusion about potential human carcinogenicity. The paper also discusses issues that are mistakenly addressed as classification issues but are really part of the risk assessment process. 2 figs.

Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for Land Application and Distribution and Marketing of Municipal Sludge

EPA Science Inventory

This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. The sludge management practices addressed by this series include land application practices, distribution a...

Assessing the global risk of establishment of Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate assessment of insect pest establishment risk is needed by national plant protection organizations to negotiate international trade of horticultural commodities that can potentially carry the pests and result in inadvertent introductions in the importing countries. We used mechanistic and co...

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF POPULATION MODELS TO SUPPORT EPA'S ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESSES FOR PESTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a broader exploratory effort to develop ecological risk assessment approaches to estimate potential chemical effects on non-target populations, we describe an approach for developing simple population models to estimate the extent to which acute effects on individual...

Preliminary Ecological Risk Assessment for Nitrogen at Pearl Harbor Naval Shipboard

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-12-01

Under authority of J. G. Grovhoug, Head R. H. Moore, Head Marine Environmental Quality Branch Environmental Science Division P I I I I I I I I PS I i... Environmental Science estuaries nitrogen Dissolved Concentration Potential eutrophication Particle Retention Efficiency Ecological Risk Assessment 16

Considerations for Developing a Dosimetry-Based Cumulative Risk Assessment Approach for Mixtures of Environmental Contaminants (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Considerations for Developing a Dosimetry-Based Cumulative Risk Assessment Approach for Mixtures of Environmental Contaminants. This report describes a process that can be used to determine the potential value of develop...

Use of the Maximum Cumulative Ratio As an Approach for Prioritizing Aquatic Coexposure to Plant Protection Products: A Case Study of a Large Surface Water Monitoring Database.

PubMed

Vallotton, Nathalie; Price, Paul S

2016-05-17

This paper uses the maximum cumulative ratio (MCR) as part of a tiered approach to evaluate and prioritize the risk of acute ecological effects from combined exposures to the plant protection products (PPPs) measured in 3 099 surface water samples taken from across the United States. Assessments of the reported mixtures performed on a substance-by-substance approach and using a Tier One cumulative assessment based on the lowest acute ecotoxicity benchmark gave the same findings for 92.3% of the mixtures. These mixtures either did not indicate a potential risk for acute effects or included one or more individual PPPs that had concentrations in excess of their benchmarks. A Tier Two assessment using a trophic level approach was applied to evaluate the remaining 7.7% of the mixtures. This assessment reduced the number of mixtures of concern by eliminating the combination of endpoint from multiple trophic levels, identified invertebrates and nonvascular plants as the most susceptible nontarget organisms, and indicated that a only a very limited number of PPPs drove the potential concerns. The combination of the measures of cumulative risk and the MCR enabled the identification of a small subset of mixtures where a potential risk would be missed in substance-by-substance assessments.

Understanding safety and production risks in rail engineering planning and protection.

PubMed

Wilson, John R; Ryan, Brendan; Schock, Alex; Ferreira, Pedro; Smith, Stuart; Pitsopoulos, Julia

2009-07-01

Much of the published human factors work on risk is to do with safety and within this is concerned with prediction and analysis of human error and with human reliability assessment. Less has been published on human factors contributions to understanding and managing project, business, engineering and other forms of risk and still less jointly assessing risk to do with broad issues of 'safety' and broad issues of 'production' or 'performance'. This paper contains a general commentary on human factors and assessment of risk of various kinds, in the context of the aims of ergonomics and concerns about being too risk averse. The paper then describes a specific project, in rail engineering, where the notion of a human factors case has been employed to analyse engineering functions and related human factors issues. A human factors issues register for potential system disturbances has been developed, prior to a human factors risk assessment, which jointly covers safety and production (engineering delivery) concerns. The paper concludes with a commentary on the potential relevance of a resilience engineering perspective to understanding rail engineering systems risk. Design, planning and management of complex systems will increasingly have to address the issue of making trade-offs between safety and production, and ergonomics should be central to this. The paper addresses the relevant issues and does so in an under-published domain - rail systems engineering work.

Religion and suicide.

PubMed

Gearing, Robin E; Lizardi, Dana

2009-09-01

Religion impacts suicidality. One's degree of religiosity can potentially serve as a protective factor against suicidal behavior. To accurately assess risk of suicide, it is imperative to understand the role of religion in suicidality. PsycINFO and MEDLINE databases were searched for published articles on religion and suicide between 1980 and 2008. Epidemiological data on suicidality across four religions, and the influence of religion on suicidality are presented. Practice guidelines are presented for incorporating religiosity into suicide risk assessment. Suicide rates and risk and protective factors for suicide vary across religions. It is essential to assess for degree of religious commitment and involvement to accurately identify suicide risk.

ARIES Oxide Production Program Assessment of Risk to Long-term Sustainable Production Rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitworth, Julia; Lloyd, Jane Alexandria; Majors, Harry W.

2017-05-04

This report describes an assessment of risks and the development of a risk watch list for the ARIES Oxide Production Program conducted in the Plutonium Facility at LANL. The watch list is an active list of potential risks and opportunities that the management team periodically considers to maximize the likelihood of program success. The initial assessments were made in FY 16. The initial watch list was reviewed in September 2016. The initial report was not issued. Revision 1 has been developed based on management review of the original watch list and includes changes that occurred during FY-16.

Understanding the real risks of changing employee benefit plans.

PubMed

Kane, Jon; St Amour, Jeffrey

2005-01-01

In an environment of constant change, corporations are looking to alter employee benefits programs to make them more responsive to employee and business needs. A complete risk assessment process is the key to preparing for changes to employee benefits programs by providing employers with an analysis of cost savings against the potential negative ramifications of change. This article outlines the steps involved in a complete review of risk assessment. It then discusses how employers can develop successful change management communication strategies if, after conducting a risk assessment, employers decide to move forward with alterations to their employee benefits programs.

A risk assessment approach to contaminants in Port Curtis, Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Jones, Mary-Anne; Stauber, Jenny; Apte, Simon; Simpson, Stuart; Vicente-Beckett, Vicky; Johnson, Rod; Duivenvoorden, Leo

2005-01-01

Port Curtis is one of Australia's leading ports for which substantial industrial expansion is proposed over the next decade. However, there has been little attempt to date to assess the extent of contamination in waters, sediments and biota or to characterize the potential impacts of contaminants on aquatic biota. Contaminants of potential concern to biota and human health were investigated in the Port Curtis estuary using a screening-level risk assessment approach. Dissolved metal concentrations in waters were below [ANZECC/ARMCANZ, 2000. Australian and New Zealand Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Water Quality, Vol. 1. The Guidelines, Australian and New Zealand Environment and Conservation Council and Agriculture and Resource Management Council of Australia and New Zealand] trigger values, suggesting low risk of these contaminants. In sediments, arsenic, nickel and chromium concentrations exceeded interim sediment quality guidelines-low (ISQG-low), but were also high in the reference zone suggesting a natural origin. Historical data on naphthalene in Harbour sediments showed that it was also of potential concern. Bioaccumulation of contaminants in a range of biota was also used as an indicator of contaminant exposure. Biota were generally enriched in metals and tributyltin, which was also elevated in water and sediments. Although not unique to Port Curtis, mercury in barramundi was identified as a potential risk to human health.

WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rath, F.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

PubMed

Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

2008-01-01

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.

The short- to medium-term predictive accuracy of static and dynamic risk assessment measures in a secure forensic hospital.

PubMed

Chu, Chi Meng; Thomas, Stuart D M; Ogloff, James R P; Daffern, Michael

2013-04-01

Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study sought to compare the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessment measures for violence with static risk assessment measures over the short term (up to 1 month) and medium term (up to 6 months) in a forensic psychiatric inpatient setting. Results showed that dynamic measures were generally more accurate than static measures for short- to medium-term predictions of inpatient aggression. These findings highlight the necessity of using risk assessment measures that are sensitive to important clinical risk state variables to improve the short- to medium-term prediction of aggression within the forensic inpatient setting. Such knowledge can assist with the development of more accurate and efficient risk assessment procedures, including the selection of appropriate risk assessment instruments to manage and prevent the violence of offenders with mental illnesses during inpatient treatment.

A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

2009-09-01

Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

Wildfire risk assessment in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface of Greece.

PubMed

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mesh-Based Entry Vehicle and Explosive Debris Re-Contact Probability Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McPherson, Mark A.; Mendeck, Gavin F.

2011-01-01

The risk to a crewed vehicle arising from potential re-contact with fragments from an explosive breakup of any jettisoned spacecraft segments during entry has long sought to be quantified. However, great difficulty lies in efficiently capturing the potential locations of each fragment and their collective threat to the vehicle. The method presented in this paper addresses this problem by using a stochastic approach that discretizes simulated debris pieces into volumetric cells, and then assesses strike probabilities accordingly. Combining spatial debris density and relative velocity between the debris and the entry vehicle, the strike probability can be calculated from the integral of the debris flux inside each cell over time. Using this technique it is possible to assess the risk to an entry vehicle along an entire trajectory as it separates from the jettisoned segment. By decoupling the fragment trajectories from that of the entry vehicle, multiple potential separation maneuvers can then be evaluated rapidly to provide an assessment of the best strategy to mitigate the re-contact risk.

Gene Expression Changes in Developing Zebrafish as Potential Markers for Rapid Developmental Neurotoxicity Screening

EPA Science Inventory

Sparse information exists on many chemicals to guide developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) risk assessments. As DNT testing using rodents is laborious and expensive, alternative species such as zebrafish are being adapted for toxicity screening. Assessing the DNT potential of chem...

LIFE-STAGE DEPENDENT DOSIMETRY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACHES

EPA Science Inventory

Increasingly reproductive and developmental toxicity studies are utilized in assessing the potential for adverse affects in pregnant women, nursing infants, and children. These studies largely have been utilized based upon the dose to the mother due to the complexity of describi...

Spatial distributions, fractionation characteristics, and ecological risk assessment of trace elements in sediments of Chaohu Lake, a large eutrophic freshwater lake in eastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Liu, Guijian; Zhou, Chuncai; Liu, Rongqiong; Xi, Shanshan; Da, Chunnian; Liu, Fei

2018-01-01

The concentrations, spatial distribution, fractionation characteristics, and potential ecological risks of trace elements (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, Ni, and Co) in the surface sediment samples collected from 32 sites in Chaohu Lake were investigated. The improved BCR sequential extraction procedure was applied to analyze the chemical forms of trace elements in sediments. The enrichment factor (EF), sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), potential ecological risk index (PERI), and risk assessment code (RAC) were employed to evaluate the pollution levels and the potential ecological risks. The results found that the concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, Ni, and Co in the surface sediments were 78.59, 36.91, 161.84, 98.87, 38.92, and 10.09 mg kg -1 , respectively. The lower concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, and Ni were almost found in the middle part of the lake, while Co increased from the western toward the eastern parts of the lake. Cr, Ni, Co, and Zn predominantly existed in the residual fractions, with the average values of 76.35, 59.22, 45.60, and 44.30%, respectively. Cu and Pb were mainly combined with Fe/Mn oxides in reducible fraction, with the average values of 66.4 and 69.1%, respectively. The pollution levels were different among the selected elements. Cu had the highest potential ecological risk, while Cr had the lowest potential ecological risk.

Risk and resilience in the shale gas context: a nexus perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosales, T. Y.; Notte, C. A.; Allen, D. M.; Kirste, D. M.

2014-12-01

The accelerated exploration for and development of unconventional gas plays around the world has raised public concern about potential risks to human health and the environment. In this study, a risk assessment framework specific to shale gas development is proposed. The framework aims to quantify and/or qualify both risk and resilience within a water-energy nexus context, using a comprehensive approach that considers environment, health and policy. The risk assessment framework is intended to be flexible so that it can be used in different regions, but will be tested in North East British Columbia, Canada where shale gas development is rapidly expanding. The main components of risk include hazards, susceptibility and potential consequences, which will be evaluated in space and time using ArcGIS software. The hazards are associated with all phases of shale gas development and include: water, air, and soil contamination; water use (surface and groundwater), and land use disturbance, and their assessment will take into account where they may occur, their frequency, duration and magnitude. Hazard-specific susceptibility maps will be generated based on the physical characteristics of the environment (e.g. soil, geology, hydrology, topography) as well as water source information (e.g. well locations), community footprints, etc. When combined with an evaluation of potential consequences, the resulting set of spatial risk maps can then be used for water resource management, land use planning, and industry permitting. Resilience, which buffers risk, here considers the existing regulatory framework and whether or not existing regulations can mitigate risk by reducing the hazard potential or consequences. The study considers how regulations may fully, partially, or inadequately mitigate the consequences of a given hazard. If development is to continue at its current pace in North East BC, it is imperative that decision-makers recognize the changing risk and resilience profiles and respond with appropriate policy. A critical component of the study comprises a gap analysis of current regulation and a possible path forward.

Environmental risk assessment of pesticides: state of the art and prospective improvement from science.

PubMed

Boivin, Arnaud; Poulsen, Véronique

2017-03-01

Pesticide risk assessment in the European regulatory framework is mandatory performed for active substances (pesticides) and the plant protection products they are constituents of. The aim is to guarantee that safe use can be achieved for the intended use of the product. This paper provides a feedback on the regulatory environmental risk assessment performed for pesticide registration at the EU and member state levels. The different steps of pesticide registration are addressed considering both exposure and hazard. In this paper, we focus on the environmental fate and behaviour in surface water together with the aquatic ecotoxicity of the substances to illustrate pesticide regulatory risk assessment performed for aquatic organisms. Current methodologies are presented along with highlights on potential improvements. For instance, as regards exposure aspects, moving from field based to landscape risk assessments is promising. Regarding ecotoxicology, ecological models may be valuable tools when applied to chemical risk assessment. In addition, interest and further developments to better take into account mitigation measures in risk assessment and management are also presented.

[Epidemiological risk of introduction of dangerous and exotic infectious diseases on the territory of the XXII Olympic Winter Games and XI Paralympic Winter Games 2014 in Sochi].

PubMed

Kuz'kin, B P; Ezhlova, E B; Kulichenko, A N; Maletskaia, O V; Demina, Iu V; Taran, T V; Pakskina, N D; Kharchenko, T V; Grizhebovskiĭ, G M; Savel'ev, V N; Orobeĭ, V G; Klindukhov, V P; Grechanaia, T V; Tesheva, S Ch; Brukhanova, G D

2015-01-01

To assess the epidemiological risk of introduction of serious infectious diseases in the pre-Olympic period defined list of dangerous and exotic infections and held assessment of potential danger threatening. Initial external information to assess the potential risk of skidding were reports, forecasts, posted on the official websites. The risk of skidding and epidemiological complications conditionally designated as high, moderate and minimal risk importation of measles virus-Rate was considered as high. In confirmation of the forecast for the period of the Olympic Games in Sochi have been registered about 100 cases of measles. Moderate risk of importation was determined for poliomyelitis due to wild poliovirus, Lassa fever, cholera, plague, and the minimal--for Dengue fever, yellow fever, the Middle East and respiratory syndrome, diseases caused by viruses Marburg and Ebola. Based on of analysis of previous Olympic Games and subsequent co-events related to the activity of the infectious diseases in the world, mate-cluded that even a slight risk of importation of infectious diseases requires maximum alertness and readiness to conduct adequate epidemiological issues incorporated.

Risk assessment for adult butterflies exposed to the mosquito control pesticide naled

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bargar, Timothy A.

2012-01-01

A prospective risk assessment was conducted for adult butterflies potentially exposed to the mosquito control insecticide naled. Published acute mortality data, exposure data collected during field studies, and morphometric data (total surface area and fresh body weight) for adult butterflies were combined in a probabilistic estimate of the likelihood that adult butterfly exposure to naled following aerial applications would exceed levels associated with acute mortality. Adult butterfly exposure was estimated based on the product of (1) naled residues on samplers and (2) an exposure metric that normalized total surface area for adult butterflies to their fresh weight. The likelihood that the 10th percentile refined effect estimate for adult butterflies exposed to naled would be exceeded following aerial naled applications was 67 to 80%. The greatest risk would be for butterflies in the family Lycaenidae, and the lowest risk would be for those in the family Hesperidae, assuming equivalent sensitivity to naled. A range of potential guideline naled deposition levels is presented that, if not exceeded, would reduce the risk of adult butterfly mortality. The results for this risk assessment were compared with other risk estimates for butterflies, and the implications for adult butterflies in areas targeted by aerial naled applications are discussed.

Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants.

PubMed Central

Möller, L; Schuetzle, D; Autrup, H

1994-01-01

This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out this research. PMID:7529703

Risk assessment in the management of newly diagnosed classical Hodgkin lymphoma.

PubMed

Connors, Joseph M

2015-03-12

Treatment of Hodgkin lymphoma is associated with 2 major types of risk: that the treatment may fail to cure the disease or that the treatment will prove unacceptably toxic. Careful assessment of the amount of the lymphoma (tumor burden), its behavior (extent of invasion or specific organ compromise), and host related factors (age; coincident systemic infection; and organ dysfunction, especially hematopoietic, cardiac, or pulmonary) is essential to optimize outcome. Elaborately assembled prognostic scoring systems, such as the International Prognostic Factors Project score, have lost their accuracy and value as increasingly effective chemotherapy and supportive care have been developed. Identification of specific biomarkers derived from sophisticated exploration of Hodgkin lymphoma biology is bringing promise of further improvement in targeted therapy in which effectiveness is increased at the same time off-target toxicity is diminished. Parallel developments in functional imaging are providing additional potential to evaluate the efficacy of treatment while it is being delivered, allowing dynamic assessment of risk during chemotherapy and adaptation of the therapy in real time. Risk assessment in Hodgkin lymphoma is continuously evolving, promising ever greater precision and clinical relevance. This article explores the past usefulness and the emerging potential of risk assessment for this imminently curable malignancy. © 2015 by The American Society of Hematology.

Twenty-first century approaches to toxicity testing, biomonitoring, and risk assessment: perspectives from the global chemical industry.

PubMed

Phillips, Richard D; Bahadori, Tina; Barry, Brenda E; Bus, James S; Gant, Timothy W; Mostowy, Janet M; Smith, Claudia; Willuhn, Marc; Zimmer, Ulrike

2009-09-01

The International Council of Chemical Associations' Long-Range Research Initiative (ICCA-LRI) sponsored a workshop, titled Twenty-First Century Approaches to Toxicity Testing, Biomonitoring, and Risk Assessment, on 16 and 17 June 2008 in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The workshop focused on interpretation of data from the new technologies for toxicity testing and biomonitoring, and on understanding the relevance of the new data for assessment of human health risks. Workshop participants articulated their concerns that scientific approaches for interpreting and understanding the emerging data in a biologically relevant context lag behind the rapid advancements in the new technologies. Research will be needed to mitigate these lags and to develop approaches for communicating the information, even in a context of uncertainty. A collaborative, coordinated, and sustained research effort is necessary to modernize risk assessment and to significantly reduce current reliance on animal testing. In essence, this workshop was a call to action to bring together the intellectual and financial resources necessary to harness the potential of these new technologies towards improved public health decision making. Without investment in the science of interpretation, it will be difficult to realize the potential that the advanced technologies offer to modernize toxicity testing, exposure science, and risk assessment.

Qalibra: a general model for food risk-benefit assessment that quantifies variability and uncertainty.

PubMed

Hart, Andy; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Owen, Helen; Kennedy, Marc; Zeilmaker, Marco J; de Jong, Nynke; Gunnlaugsdottir, Helga

2013-04-01

The EU project BRAFO proposed a framework for risk-benefit assessment of foods, or changes in diet, that present both potential risks and potential benefits to consumers (Hoekstra et al., 2012a). In higher tiers of the BRAFO framework, risks and benefits are integrated quantitatively to estimate net health impact measured in DALYs or QALYs (disability- or quality-adjusted life years). This paper describes a general model that was developed by a second EU project, Qalibra, to assist users in conducting these assessments. Its flexible design makes it applicable to a wide range of dietary questions involving different nutrients, contaminants and health effects. Account can be taken of variation between consumers in their diets and also other characteristics relevant to the estimation of risk and benefit, such as body weight, gender and age. Uncertainty in any input parameter may be quantified probabilistically, using probability distributions, or deterministically by repeating the assessment with alternative assumptions. Uncertainties that are not quantified should be evaluated qualitatively. Outputs produced by the model are illustrated using results from a simple assessment of fish consumption. More detailed case studies on oily fish and phytosterols are presented in companion papers. The model can be accessed as web-based software at www.qalibra.eu. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Risk perception and communication: lessons for the food and food packaging industry.

PubMed

Renn, O

2005-10-01

Health risks are front-page news. Be it bovine spongiform encephalitis (BSE), surface ozone, or radiation from transmitter stations or mobile phones, the popular press puts out a constant stream of risk warnings and sensational reports about potential health threats. This paper examines how the general public perceives and assesses such information when it comes to food and food packaging risks. In the first part, the basic components of food risks are discussed and then compared with the perceptions of these risks. The main emphasis is on the risks from food packaging. The term 'perception' as used in cognitive psychology applies to the mental processes through which a person takes in, deals with and assesses information from the environment (physical and communicative) via the senses. The last part of the paper deals with the consequences of risk assessment and risk perception for risk management and risk communication.

Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

PubMed

Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

2018-02-01

Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

Assessing the Benefit-Risk Profile for Pediatric Implantable Auditory Prostheses.

PubMed

Fisher, Laurel M; Martinez, Amy S; Richmond, Frances J; Krieger, Mark D; Wilkinson, Eric P; Eisenberg, Laurie S

2017-01-01

Children with congenital cochleovestibular abnormalities associated with profound hearing loss have few treatment options if cochlear implantation does not yield benefit. An alternative is the auditory brainstem implant (ABI). Regulatory authority device approvals currently include a structured benefit-risk assessment. Such an assessment, for regulatory purposes or to guide clinical decision making, has not been published, to our knowledge, for the ABI and may lead to the design of a research program that incorporates regulatory authority, family, and professional input. Much structured benefit-risk research has been conducted in the context of drug trials; here we apply this approach to device studies. A qualitative framework organized benefit (speech recognition, parent self-report measures) and risk (surgery- and device-related) information to guide the selection of candidates thought to have potential benefit from ABI. Children with cochleovestibular anatomical abnormalities are challenging for appropriate assessment of candidacy for a cochlear implant or an ABI. While the research is still preliminary, children with an ABI appear to slowly obtain benefit over time. A team of professionals, including audiological, occupational, and educational therapy, affords maximum opportunity for benefit. Pediatric patients who have abnormal anatomy and are candidates for an implantable auditory prosthetic require an individualized, multisystems review. The qualitative benefit-risk assessment used here to characterize the condition, the medical need, potential benefits, risks, and risk management strategies has revealed the complex factors involved. After implantation, continued team support for the family during extensive postimplant therapy is needed to develop maximum auditory skill benefit.

[Economic evaluation and rationale for human health risk management decisions].

PubMed

Fokin, S G; Bobkova, T E

2011-01-01

The priority task of human health maintenance and improvement is risk management using the new economic concepts based on the assessment of potential and real human risks from exposure to poor environmental factors and on the estimation of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness ratios. The application of economic tools to manage a human risk makes it possible to assess various measures both as a whole and their individual priority areas, to rank different scenarios in terms of their effectiveness, to estimate costs per unit of risk reduction and benefit increase (damage decrease).

Comparison of ergonomic risk assessment outputs from rapid entire body assessment and quick exposure check in an engine oil company.

PubMed

Motamedzade, Majid; Ashuri, Mohammad Reza; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Mahjub, Hossein

2011-06-13

During the last decades, to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), enormous observational methods have been developed. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods in this field. This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. All jobs were observed by a trained occupational health practitioner. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%). There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs, and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

Methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants into recycling products - A case study from Austria.

PubMed

Knapp, Julika; Allesch, Astrid; Müller, Wolfgang; Bockreis, Anke

2017-11-01

Recycling of waste materials is desirable to reduce the consumption of limited primary resources, but also includes the risk of recycling unwanted, hazardous substances. In Austria, the legal framework demands secondary products must not present a higher risk than comparable products derived from primary resources. However, the act provides no definition on how to assess this risk potential. This paper describes the development of different quantitative and qualitative methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants in recycling processes. The quantitative methods comprise the comparison of concentrations of harmful substances in recycling products to corresponding primary products and to existing limit values. The developed evaluation matrix, which considers further aspects, allows for the assessment of the qualitative risk potential. The results show that, depending on the assessed waste fraction, particular contaminants can be critical. Their concentrations were higher than in comparable primary materials and did not comply with existing limit values. On the other hand, the results show that a long-term, well-established quality control system can assure compliance with the limit values. The results of the qualitative assessment obtained with the evaluation matrix support the results of the quantitative assessment. Therefore, the evaluation matrix can be suitable to quickly screen waste streams used for recycling to estimate their potential environmental and health risks. To prevent the transfer of contaminants into product cycles, improved data of relevant substances in secondary resources are necessary. In addition, regulations for material recycling are required to assure adequate quality control measures, including limit values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring and managing risk improves strategic financial planning.

PubMed

Kleinmuntz, D N; Kleinmuntz, C E; Stephen, R G; Nordlund, D S

1999-06-01

Strategic financial risk assessment is a practical technique that can enable healthcare strategic decision makers to perform quantitative analyses of the financial risks associated with a given strategic initiative. The technique comprises six steps: (1) list risk factors that might significantly influence the outcomes, (2) establish best-guess estimates for assumptions regarding how each risk factor will affect its financial outcomes, (3) identify risk factors that are likely to have the greatest impact, (4) assign probabilities to assumptions, (5) determine potential scenarios associated with combined assumptions, and (6) determine the probability-weighted average of the potential scenarios.

Risk adjusting community rated health plan premiums: a survey of risk assessment literature and policy applications.

PubMed

Giacomini, M; Luft, H S; Robinson, J C

1995-01-01

This paper surveys recent health care reform debates and empirical evidence regarding the potential role for risk adjusters in addressing the problem of competitive risk segmentation under capitated financing. We discuss features of health plan markets affecting risk selection, methodological considerations in measuring it, and alternative approaches to financial correction for risk differentials. The appropriate approach to assessing risk differences between health plans depends upon the nature of market risk selection allowed under a given reform scenario. Because per capita costs depend on a health plan's population risk, efficiency, and quality of service, risk adjustment will most strongly promote efficiency in environments with commensurately strong incentives for quality care.

Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

PubMed

Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

2005-11-15

A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

[Investigation into the capacity for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation in managing public health emergencies in China].

PubMed

Hu, Guo-qing; Rao, Ke-qin; Sun, Zhen-qiu

2007-08-01

To investigate the capacity for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation in public health emergency management in China. Four provinces were randomly selected using stratified sampling. All the municipalities under these four provinces were assessed using the 3rd subscale (Risk Identification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation) of Preparedness and Response Capacity Questionnaire for Public Health Emergencies Used in Provincial or Municipal Governments, which was developed by the Center for Health Statistics and Information, Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China. Sixty of 66 questionnaires (90.91%) were collected. Among 60 investigated municipalities, 35 (58%) identified the potential public health emergencies, 17 (28%) assessed the risks for the identified emergencies, and 5 (8%) conducted risk assessments for the locally accident-prone factories, mines, corporations, and big establishments, 6 (10%) identified the priorities in public health emergency management based on risk assessment, 6 (10%) developed special prevention strategies for main public health emergencies, 3 (5%) assessed the vulnerability of local residents to public health emergencies, and 34 (57%) assessed or were assessing the preparedness and response capacity for public health emergencies in the past 2 years. The mean of standard total score for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation was 24.05 (95% CI: 18.32, 29.77). Risk identification, assessment, and mitigation still require further improvement in China, and both the central and local authorities should implement more effective and efficient measures.

Applicability of drinking water treatment residue for lake restoration in relation to metal/metalloid risk assessment

PubMed Central

Yuan, Nannan; Wang, Changhui; Pei, Yuansheng; Jiang, Helong

2016-01-01

Drinking water treatment residue (DWTR), a byproduct generated during potable water production, exhibits a high potential for recycling to control eutrophication. However, this beneficial recycling is hampered by unclear metal/metalloid pollution risks related to DWTR. In this study, the pollution risks of Al, As, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn due to DWTR application were first evaluated for lake water based on human health risk assessment models and comparison of regulatory standards. The risks of DWTR were also evaluated for sediments on the basis of toxicity characteristics leaching procedure and fractionation in relation to risk assessment code. Variations in the biological behaviors of metal/metalloid in sediments caused by DWTR were assessed using Chironomus plumosus larvae and Hydrilla verticillata. Kinetic luminescent bacteria test (using Aliivibrio fischeri) was conducted to analyze the possibility of acute and chronic detrimental effects of sediment with DWTR application. According to the obtained results, we identify a potential undesirable effect of DWTR related to Fe and Mn (typically under anaerobic conditions); roughly present a dosage threshold calculation model; and recommend a procedure for DWTR prescreening to ensure safe application. Overall, managed DWTR application is necessary for successful eutrophication control. PMID:27929083

Applicability of drinking water treatment residue for lake restoration in relation to metal/metalloid risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Nannan; Wang, Changhui; Pei, Yuansheng; Jiang, Helong

2016-12-01

Drinking water treatment residue (DWTR), a byproduct generated during potable water production, exhibits a high potential for recycling to control eutrophication. However, this beneficial recycling is hampered by unclear metal/metalloid pollution risks related to DWTR. In this study, the pollution risks of Al, As, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn due to DWTR application were first evaluated for lake water based on human health risk assessment models and comparison of regulatory standards. The risks of DWTR were also evaluated for sediments on the basis of toxicity characteristics leaching procedure and fractionation in relation to risk assessment code. Variations in the biological behaviors of metal/metalloid in sediments caused by DWTR were assessed using Chironomus plumosus larvae and Hydrilla verticillata. Kinetic luminescent bacteria test (using Aliivibrio fischeri) was conducted to analyze the possibility of acute and chronic detrimental effects of sediment with DWTR application. According to the obtained results, we identify a potential undesirable effect of DWTR related to Fe and Mn (typically under anaerobic conditions); roughly present a dosage threshold calculation model; and recommend a procedure for DWTR prescreening to ensure safe application. Overall, managed DWTR application is necessary for successful eutrophication control.

Site specific risk assessment of an energy-from-waste/thermal treatment facility in Durham Region, Ontario, Canada. Part B: Ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Ollson, Christopher A; Whitfield Aslund, Melissa L; Knopper, Loren D; Dan, Tereza

2014-01-01

The regions of Durham and York in Ontario, Canada have partnered to construct an energy-from-waste (EFW) thermal treatment facility as part of a long term strategy for the management of their municipal solid waste. In this paper we present the results of a comprehensive ecological risk assessment (ERA) for this planned facility, based on baseline sampling and site specific modeling to predict facility-related emissions, which was subsequently accepted by regulatory authorities. Emissions were estimated for both the approved initial operating design capacity of the facility (140,000 tonnes per year) and the maximum design capacity (400,000 tonnes per year). In general, calculated ecological hazard quotients (EHQs) and screening ratios (SRs) for receptors did not exceed the benchmark value (1.0). The only exceedances noted were generally due to existing baseline media concentrations, which did not differ from those expected for similar unimpacted sites in Ontario. This suggests that these exceedances reflect conservative assumptions applied in the risk assessment rather than actual potential risk. However, under predicted upset conditions at 400,000 tonnes per year (i.e., facility start-up, shutdown, and loss of air pollution control), a potential unacceptable risk was estimated for freshwater receptors with respect to benzo(g,h,i)perylene (SR=1.1), which could not be attributed to baseline conditions. Although this slight exceedance reflects a conservative worst-case scenario (upset conditions coinciding with worst-case meteorological conditions), further investigation of potential ecological risk should be performed if this facility is expanded to the maximum operating capacity in the future. © 2013.

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

Risk assessment of fluoride exposure in drinking water of Tunisia.

PubMed

Guissouma, Wiem; Hakami, Othman; Al-Rajab, Abdul Jabbar; Tarhouni, Jamila

2017-06-01

The presence of fluoride in drinking water is known to reduce dental cavities among consumers, but an excessive intake of this anion might leads to dental and skeletal fluorosis. This study reports a complete survey of the fluoridated tap water taken from 100 water consumption points in Tunisia. The fluoride concentrations in tap water were between 0 and 2.4 mg L -1 . Risk assessment of Fluoride exposure was assessed depending on the age of consumers using a four-step method: hazard identification, toxicity reference values selection (TRVs), daily exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Our findings suggest that approximately 75% of the Tunisian population is at risk for dental decay, 25% have a potential dental fluorosis risk, and 20% might have a skeletal fluorosis risk according to the limits of fluoride in drinking water recommended by WHO. More investigations are recommended to assess the exposure risk of fluoride in other sources of drinking water such as bottled water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian joint modelling of benefit and risk in drug development.

PubMed

Costa, Maria J; Drury, Thomas

2018-05-01

To gain regulatory approval, a new medicine must demonstrate that its benefits outweigh any potential risks, ie, that the benefit-risk balance is favourable towards the new medicine. For transparency and clarity of the decision, a structured and consistent approach to benefit-risk assessment that quantifies uncertainties and accounts for underlying dependencies is desirable. This paper proposes two approaches to benefit-risk evaluation, both based on the idea of joint modelling of mixed outcomes that are potentially dependent at the subject level. Using Bayesian inference, the two approaches offer interpretability and efficiency to enhance qualitative frameworks. Simulation studies show that accounting for correlation leads to a more accurate assessment of the strength of evidence to support benefit-risk profiles of interest. Several graphical approaches are proposed that can be used to communicate the benefit-risk balance to project teams. Finally, the two approaches are illustrated in a case study using real clinical trial data. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Public Health Risk Conditioned by Chemical Composition of Ground Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yankovich, E.; Osipova, N.; Yankovich, K.; Matveenko, I.

2016-03-01

The article studies the public health potential risk originated from water consumption and estimated on the basis of the groundwater chemical composition. We have processed the results of chemical groundwater analysis in different aquifers of Tomsk district (Tomsk Oblast, Russia). More than 8400 samples of chemical groundwater analyses were taken during long-term observation period. Human health risk assessment of exposure to contaminants in drinking water was performed in accordance with the risk assessment guidance for public health concerning chemical pollution of the environment (Russian reference number: 2.1.10.1920-04-M, 2004). Identified potential risks were estimated for consuming water of each aquifer. The comparative analysis of water quality of different aquifers was performed on the basis of the risk coefficient of the total non-carcinogenic effects. The non-carcinogenic risk for the health of the Tomsk district population due to groundwater consumption without prior sanitary treatment was admitted acceptable. A rather similar picture is observed for all aquifers, although deeper aquifers show lower hazard coefficients.

[Work-related musculo-skeletal disorders in apiculture: a biomechanical approach to the risk assessment].

PubMed

Maina, G; Sorasio, D; Rossi, F; Zito, D; Perrelli, E; Baracco, A

2012-01-01

The risk assessment in apiculture points out methodological problems due to discontinuities and variability of exposure. This study analyzes a comprehensive set of potential determinants influencing the biomechanical risks in apiarists using recognized technical standards to ensure the technical-scientific accuracy; it offers a simplified methodological toolkit to be used in the risk assessment process and provides a user-friendly computer application. The toolkit asks the beekeeper to specify, for each month, the total number of hours worked, specifying the distribution among different tasks. As a result, the application calculates the average index risk and the peak index risk. The evidence of the study indicates that there are activities in this occupational area with biomechanical risks that remain for some tasks, while reducing the exposure time.

Altering the Earth's Chemistry: Assessing the Risks. Worldwatch Paper 71.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Postel, Sandra

Human activities that have altered the earth's chemistry are discussed in terms of their potential ecological and economic consequences. Humanity's impact on the disruption of the natural cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur is assessed. Data are presented which illustrate the extent of change in these cycles. Risks particularly threatening and…

“A Modeling Framework for Improved Characterization of Near-Road Air Quality at Fine Scales for Nationwide Exposure Assessment.”

EPA Science Inventory

Communities at the proximity of roadways are exposed to high levels of air pollution from automobile exhaust and are under potential risk of adverse health effects. To understand the relationship between air pollution and adverse health effects, exposure and risk assessment studi...

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed-scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, ...

Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

PubMed

Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

2017-11-01

The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

Source-to-Outcome Microbial Exposure and Risk Modeling Framework

EPA Science Inventory

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a computer-based data-delivery and modeling approach that integrates interdisciplinary fate/transport, exposure, and impact models and databases to characterize potential health impacts/risks due to pathogens. As such, a QMRA ex...

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #12-P-0900, September 27, 2012. Vulnerability testing of networked resources located in the NVFEL identified Internet Protocol addresses with potentially 9 critical-risk, 70 high-risk, and 297 medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Cancer risk in nuclear workers occupationally exposed to uranium-emphasis on internal exposure.

PubMed

Canu, Irina Guseva; Ellis, Elizabeth Dupree; Tirmarche, Margot

2008-01-01

Workers involved in the nuclear fuel cycle have a potential for internal exposure to uranium. The present review of epidemiological studies of these workers aims to elucidate the relationship between occupational internal uranium exposure and cancer risk. Eighteen cohort and 5 nested case-control studies published since 1980 are reviewed. Workers occupationally exposed to uranium appear to be at increased risk of mortality from neoplasms of the lung, larynx, and lymphatic and haematopoietic tissue. Currently available evidence for a positive association between internal exposure to uranium and the risk of cancer is limited. The common weaknesses in reviewed studies include low statistical power and inaccurate assessment of internal exposure to uranium. Further investigations should focus on precise assessment of occupational exposure and address the issue of potential confounders.

A regional approach to the environmental risk assessment in the Campania region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minolfi, Giulia; Albanese, Stefano; Lima, Annamaria; De Vivo, Benedetto

2016-04-01

Environmental risk assessment and analysis has a crucial role for guaranteeing the safety of the population, especially in intensive urbanized and industrialized areas, such as the Campania region (Italy). In Italy, since 2006, the human health risk assessment has become mandatory for contaminated soil and waters at contaminated sites. While traditional risk assessment procedures are usually run at site specific level (brownfields), with this work we would like to introduce a freshly developed method to assess risks at regional level by means of GIS, considering the hazard due to the presence in the environment of a contaminated media, the land use variability and the actual distribution of the population. 3535 top soils were collected across the whole Campania region (Italy) with a sampling density of 1 sample/4 km2. Samples were analyzed at ACME Analytical Lab. Ltd (Vancouver, Canada), to determine the concentration of 52 elements, with a combined methods of ICP-MS and ICP-ES following an aqua regia digestion. After a detailed statistical data analysis and geochemical mapping, we reclassified the interpolated maps of some potentially toxic elements (Sb, As, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se, Sn, Tl, V, Zn), in accordance with the Italian environmental law (D.Lgs 152/2006), on the base of the trigger and action limits (CSC) for human safety established by this latter. The obtained maps were summed up in the GIS environment in order to get a cumulative map of the potential hazard for the topsoils of Campania region. Considering that environmental risk for the population is strongly influenced by the exposure pathways followed by contaminants to reach the human target, in the case of Campania region we evaluated as relevant pathways both the soil/dust and food ingestion. Furthermore to consider the influence of the land use in the onset of the risk, each land use type was associated with a specific value of a Land Use Risk Coefficient (LURC) which is also dependent on pathways. Maps of regional risk for soil/dust and food ingestion were obtained by using the product of the map of the potential hazard map and the respective maps of the LURC distribution. A final comparison of the regional distribution of risk and the demographic data, at the scale of municipality, was necessary to better assess in which regional municipality a relevant potential increase of risk could occur and to rank them in a list of environmental priorities. In such priority areas follow-up investigations, with higher density sampling, have been carried out, in order to further understand the relationships between pollution and pathologies in the areas.

Next generation testing strategy for assessment of genomic damage: A conceptual framework and considerations.

PubMed

Dearfield, Kerry L; Gollapudi, B Bhaskar; Bemis, Jeffrey C; Benz, R Daniel; Douglas, George R; Elespuru, Rosalie K; Johnson, George E; Kirkland, David J; LeBaron, Matthew J; Li, Albert P; Marchetti, Francesco; Pottenger, Lynn H; Rorije, Emiel; Tanir, Jennifer Y; Thybaud, Veronique; van Benthem, Jan; Yauk, Carole L; Zeiger, Errol; Luijten, Mirjam

2017-06-01

For several decades, regulatory testing schemes for genetic damage have been standardized where the tests being utilized examined mutations and structural and numerical chromosomal damage. This has served the genetic toxicity community well when most of the substances being tested were amenable to such assays. The outcome from this testing is usually a dichotomous (yes/no) evaluation of test results, and in many instances, the information is only used to determine whether a substance has carcinogenic potential or not. Over the same time period, mechanisms and modes of action (MOAs) that elucidate a wider range of genomic damage involved in many adverse health outcomes have been recognized. In addition, a paradigm shift in applied genetic toxicology is moving the field toward a more quantitative dose-response analysis and point-of-departure (PoD) determination with a focus on risks to exposed humans. This is directing emphasis on genomic damage that is likely to induce changes associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes. This paradigm shift is moving the testing emphasis for genetic damage from a hazard identification only evaluation to a more comprehensive risk assessment approach that provides more insightful information for decision makers regarding the potential risk of genetic damage to exposed humans. To enable this broader context for examining genetic damage, a next generation testing strategy needs to take into account a broader, more flexible approach to testing, and ultimately modeling, of genomic damage as it relates to human exposure. This is consistent with the larger risk assessment context being used in regulatory decision making. As presented here, this flexible approach for examining genomic damage focuses on testing for relevant genomic effects that can be, as best as possible, associated with an adverse health effect. The most desired linkage for risk to humans would be changes in loci associated with human diseases, whether in somatic or germ cells. The outline of a flexible approach and associated considerations are presented in a series of nine steps, some of which can occur in parallel, which was developed through a collaborative effort by leading genetic toxicologists from academia, government, and industry through the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC). The ultimate goal is to provide quantitative data to model the potential risk levels of substances, which induce genomic damage contributing to human adverse health outcomes. Any good risk assessment begins with asking the appropriate risk management questions in a planning and scoping effort. This step sets up the problem to be addressed (e.g., broadly, does genomic damage need to be addressed, and if so, how to proceed). The next two steps assemble what is known about the problem by building a knowledge base about the substance of concern and developing a rational biological argument for why testing for genomic damage is needed or not. By focusing on the risk management problem and potential genomic damage of concern, the next step of assay(s) selection takes place. The work-up of the problem during the earlier steps provides the insight to which assays would most likely produce the most meaningful data. This discussion does not detail the wide range of genomic damage tests available, but points to types of testing systems that can be very useful. Once the assays are performed and analyzed, the relevant data sets are selected for modeling potential risk. From this point on, the data are evaluated and modeled as they are for any other toxicology endpoint. Any observed genomic damage/effects (or genetic event(s)) can be modeled via a dose-response analysis and determination of an estimated PoD. When a quantitative risk analysis is needed for decision making, a parallel exposure assessment effort is performed (exposure assessment is not detailed here as this is not the focus of this discussion; guidelines for this assessment exist elsewhere). Then the PoD for genomic damage is used with the exposure information to develop risk estimations (e.g., using reference dose (RfD), margin of exposure (MOE) approaches) in a risk characterization and presented to risk managers for informing decision making. This approach is applicable now for incorporating genomic damage results into the decision-making process for assessing potential adverse outcomes in chemically exposed humans and is consistent with the ILSI HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) roadmap. This applies to any substance to which humans are exposed, including pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, food additives, and other chemicals. It is time for regulatory bodies to incorporate the broader knowledge and insights provided by genomic damage results into the assessments of risk to more fully understand the potential of adverse outcomes in chemically exposed humans, thus improving the assessment of risk due to genomic damage. The historical use of genomic damage data as a yes/no gateway for possible cancer risk has been too narrowly focused in risk assessment. The recent advances in assaying for and understanding genomic damage, including eventually epigenetic alterations, obviously add a greater wealth of information for determining potential risk to humans. Regulatory bodies need to embrace this paradigm shift from hazard identification to quantitative analysis and to incorporate the wider range of genomic damage in their assessments of risk to humans. The quantitative analyses and methodologies discussed here can be readily applied to genomic damage testing results now. Indeed, with the passage of the recent update to the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) in the US, the new generation testing strategy for genomic damage described here provides a regulatory agency (here the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but suitable for others) a golden opportunity to reexamine the way it addresses risk-based genomic damage testing (including hazard identification and exposure). Environ. Mol. Mutagen. 58:264-283, 2017. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental and Molecular Mutagenesis Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental and Molecular Mutagenesis Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A.

2013-01-01

The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

PubMed

Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

2012-11-01

Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

An assessment of risk posed by a Campylobacter-positive puppy living in an Australian residential aged-care facility.

PubMed

Moffatt, Cameron; Appuhamy, Ranil; Andrew, Will; Wynn, Sandy; Roberts, Jan; Kennedy, Karina

2014-01-01

In April and June 2012, two outbreaks of Campylobacter gastroenteritis were investigated in an Australian aged-care facility (ACF); a Campylobacter-positive puppy was identified as a potential source of infection. An expert panel was convened to assess transmission risk from the puppy to elderly residents and to guide further public health action. Criteria considered as part of the panel's assessment included the puppy's infectivity, the bacterium's transmissibility, puppy-resident contact, infection control and cleaning practices and animal management at the facility. A literature review was used to assist the panel, with a final risk being determined using a likelihood and consequence matrix. The panel determined that the setting and low infective dose made transmission likely despite varying degrees of contact between the puppy and cases. While infection control practices were generally appropriate, the facility's animal policy did not adequately address potential zoonotic risk. In summary, puppies should not be considered as companion animals in ACFs due to high rates of Campylobacter carriage and the underlying susceptibility of the elderly. Infection control and animal policies in ACFs should reflect an awareness of zoonotic disease potential.

Risk communication: Uncertainties and the numbers game

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortigara, M.

1995-08-30

The science of risk assessment seeks to characterize the potential risk in situations that may pose hazards to human health or the environment. However, the conclusions reached by the scientists and engineers are not an end in themselves - they are passed on to the involved companies, government agencies, legislators, and the public. All interested parties must then decide what to do with the information. Risk communication is a type of technical communication that involves some unique challenges. This paper first defines the relationships between risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication and then explores two issues in risk communication:more » addressing uncertainty and putting risk number into perspective.« less

Assessment of ecological and human health risks of metals in urban road dust based on geochemical fractionation and potential bioavailability.

PubMed

Jayarathne, Ayomi; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Ayoko, Godwin A; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2018-09-01

Metals are one of the primary pollutants in the urban environment that pose adverse ecological and human health impacts. Therefore, the accurate quantification of the risk posed by metals is essential for developing effective risk management strategies to safeguard the urban environment. This study assessed the ecological and human health risks of six metals, commonly present in road dust by improving the original risk indices based on their potential bioavailability characteristics. The bioavailability of metals was determined by considering their distribution between the different geochemical phases of exchangeable, reducible, oxidisable and residual. The results of the modified risk analysis indicated that the road dust poses a low ecological risk in most of the study sites. According to the present situation, the non-cancer risk of individual metals for both, children and adults followed the decreasing trend of Pb > Cu > Cr > Zn > Ni > Cd. This study also found that depending on the particle size ranges, the potential of multiple metals being able to cause non-cancer health risk was low at most study sites. In terms of cancer health risk, Cr present at most of the study sites was found to be within the cancer threshold limit, even though the Cr content and the bioavailable fractions were relatively low. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing Field-Specific Risk of Soybean Sudden Death Syndrome Using Satellite Imagery in Iowa.

PubMed

Yang, S; Li, X; Chen, C; Kyveryga, P; Yang, X B

2016-08-01

Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery from 2004 to 2013 were used to assess the field-specific risks of soybean sudden death syndrome (SDS) caused by Fusarium virguliforme in Iowa. Fields with a high frequency of significant decrease (>10%) of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observed in late July to middle August on historical imagery were hypothetically considered as high SDS risk. These high-risk fields had higher slopes and shorter distances to flowlines, e.g., creeks and drainages, particularly in the Des Moines lobe. Field data in 2014 showed a significantly higher SDS level in the high-risk fields than fields selected without considering NDVI information. On average, low-risk fields had 10 times lower F. virguliforme soil density, determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, compared with other surveyed fields. Ordinal logistic regression identified positive correlations between SDS and slope, June NDVI, and May maximum temperature, but high June maximum temperature hindered SDS. A modeled SDS risk map showed a clear trend of potential disease occurrences across Iowa. Landsat imagery was analyzed similarly, to discuss the ability to utilize higher spatial resolution data. The results demonstrated the great potential of both MODIS and Landsat imagery for SDS field-specific risk assessment.

Why Breast Cancer Risk by the Numbers Is Not Enough: Evaluation of a Decision Aid in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Numerate Women

PubMed Central

Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham; Aguirre, Alejandra; Smalletz, Cindy; David, Raven; Crew, Katherine

2015-01-01

Background Breast cancer risk assessment including genetic testing can be used to classify people into different risk groups with screening and preventive interventions tailored to the needs of each group, yet the implementation of risk-stratified breast cancer prevention in primary care settings is complex. Objective To address barriers to breast cancer risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention strategies in primary care settings, we developed a Web-based decision aid, RealRisks, that aims to improve preference-based decision-making for breast cancer prevention, particularly in low-numerate women. Methods RealRisks incorporates experience-based dynamic interfaces to communicate risk aimed at reducing inaccurate risk perceptions, with modules on breast cancer risk, genetic testing, and chemoprevention that are tailored. To begin, participants learn about risk by interacting with two games of experience-based risk interfaces, demonstrating average 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk. We conducted four focus groups in English-speaking women (age ≥18 years), a questionnaire completed before and after interacting with the decision aid, and a semistructured group discussion. We employed a mixed-methods approach to assess accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk and acceptability of RealRisks. The qualitative analysis of the semistructured discussions assessed understanding of risk, risk models, and risk appropriate prevention strategies. Results Among 34 participants, mean age was 53.4 years, 62% (21/34) were Hispanic, and 41% (14/34) demonstrated low numeracy. According to the Gail breast cancer risk assessment tool (BCRAT), the mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk were 1.11% (SD 0.77) and 7.46% (SD 2.87), respectively. After interacting with RealRisks, the difference in perceived and estimated breast cancer risk according to BCRAT improved for 5-year risk (P=.008). In the qualitative analysis, we identified potential barriers to adopting risk-appropriate breast cancer prevention strategies, including uncertainty about breast cancer risk and risk models, distrust toward the health care system, and perception that risk assessment to pre-screen women for eligibility for genetic testing may be viewed as rationing access to care. Conclusions In a multi-ethnic population, we demonstrated a significant improvement in accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk after exposure to RealRisks. However, we identified potential barriers that suggest that accurate risk perceptions will not suffice as the sole basis to support informed decision making and the acceptance of risk-appropriate prevention strategies. Findings will inform the iterative design of the RealRisks decision aid. PMID:26175193

Potential advantages associated with implementing a risk-based inspection program by a nuclear facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeill, Alexander, III; Balkey, Kenneth R.

1995-05-01

The current inservice inspection activities at a U.S. nuclear facility are based upon the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI. The Code selects examination locations based upon a sampling criteria which includes component geometry, stress, and usage among other criteria. This can result in a significant number of required examinations. As a result of regulatory action each nuclear facility has conducted probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) or individual plant examinations (IPE), producing plant specific risk-based information. Several initiatives have been introduced to apply this new plant risk information. Among these initiatives is risk-based inservice inspection. A code case has been introduced for piping inspections based upon this new risk- based technology. This effort brought forward to the ASME Section XI Code committee, has been initiated and championed by the ASME Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inspection Guidelines -- LWR Nuclear Power Plant Application. Preliminary assessments associated with the code case have revealed that potential advantages exist in a risk-based inservice inspection program with regard to a number of exams, risk, personnel exposure, and cost.

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DYE AND PIGMENT ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This risk assessment calculates the maximum loadings of constituents found in dyes and pigment industries waste streams which can be disposed in different types of waste management units without causing health benchmarks to be exceeded at plausible receptor locations. The assessment focuses on potential risks from volatilization and leaching to groundwater of constituents disposed in surface impoundments and landfills with either clay liners or composite liners. This product will be used by EPA decision makers to assist in determining whether certain waste streams generated by the dyes and pigments industries should be designated as hazardous.

Breast cancer epidemic in the early twenty-first century: evaluation of risk factors, cumulative questionnaires and recommendations for preventive measures.

PubMed

Golubnitschaja, Olga; Debald, Manuel; Yeghiazaryan, Kristina; Kuhn, Walther; Pešta, Martin; Costigliola, Vincenzo; Grech, Godfrey

2016-10-01

Rapidly increasing incidence of breast cancer is a new social challenge resulting from a spectrum of internal and external risk factors which appear to be well accepted as an attribute of the early twenty-first century, being, however, new for female sub-populations compared to the past. These include altered socio-economical conditions such as occupational exposure, rotating shift work, specific environmental factors (increased pollution and environmental toxicity, altered dietary habits, quality and composition of meal) as well as consequently shifted and/or adapted physiologic factors such as lower age at menarche, late age of first full-term pregnancy, if any, shorter periods of breastfeeding and later menopause. Consolidated expert statements suggest that over 50 % of all breast cancer cases may be potentially prevented by risk reduction strategy such as regulation of modifiable risk factors. Currently available risk assessment models may estimate potential breast cancer predisposition, in general; however, they are not able to predict the disease manifestation individually. Further, current deficits in risk assessment and effective breast cancer prevention have been recently investigated and summarised as follows: gaps in risk estimation, preventive therapy, lifestyle prevention, understanding of the biology of breast cancer risk and implementation of known preventive measures. This paper overviews the most relevant risk factors, provides recommendations for improved risk assessment and proposes an extended questionnaire for effective preventive measures.

Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Pressures on N and P Loads and Potential Eutrophication Risk at Regional Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupas, R.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Delmas, M.; Moatar, F.

2014-12-01

Excessive nutrient loading of freshwater bodies results in increased eutrophication risk worldwide. The processes controlling N/P transfer in agricultural landscapes are well documented through scientific studies conducted in intensively monitored catchments. However, managers need tools to assess water quality and evaluate the contribution of agriculture to eutrophication at regional scales, including unmonitored or poorly monitored areas. To this end, we present an assessment framework which includes: i) a mass-balance model to estimate diffuse N/P transfer and retention and ii) indicators based on N:P:Si molar ratios to assess potential eutrophication risk from external loads. The model, called Nutting (Dupas et al., 2013), integrates variables for both detailed description of agricultural pressures (N surplus, soil P content) and characterisation of physical attributes of catchments (including spatial attributes). It was calibrated on 160 catchments, and applied to 2210 unmonitored headwater bodies in France (Dupas et al., under review). N and P retention represented 53% and 95% of soil N and P surplus, respectively, and was mainly controlled by runoff and an index characterising infiltration/runoff properties. According to our estimates, diffuse agricultural sources represented a mean of 97% of N loads and N exceeded Si in 93% of the catchments, whilst they represented 46% of P loads and P exceeded Si in 26-65% of the catchments. Estimated eutrophication risk was highly sensitive to assumptions about P bioavailability, hence the range of headwaters potentially at risk spanned 26-63% of the catchments, depending on assumptions. To reduce this uncertainty, we recommend introducing P bioavailability tests in water monitoring programs, especially in sensitive areas. Dupas R et al. Assessing N emissions in surface water at the national level: comparison of country-wide vs. regionalized models. Sci Total Environ 2013; 443: 152-62. Dupas R et al. Assessing the impact of agricultural pressures on N and P loads and eutrophication risk (under review).

In situ remediation-released zero-valent iron nanoparticles impair soil ecosystems health: A C. elegans biomarker-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Yang, Ying-Fei; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-11-05

There is considerable concern over the potential ecotoxicity to soil ecosystems posed by zero-valent iron nanoparticles (Fe(0) NPs) released from in situ environmental remediation. However, a lack of quantitative risk assessment has hampered the development of appropriate testing methods used in environmental applications. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess Fe(0) NPs-associated soil ecosystems health risk using the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans as a model organism. A Hill-based dose-response model describing the concentration-fertility inhibition relationships was constructed. A Weibull model was used to estimate thresholds as a guideline to protect C. elegans from infertility when exposed to waterborne or foodborne Fe(0) NPs. Finally, the risk metrics, exceedance risk (ER) and risk quotient (RQ) of Fe(0) NPs in various depths and distances from remediation sites can then be predicted. We showed that under 50% risk probability (ER=0.5), upper soil layer had the highest infertility risk (95% confidence interval: 13.18-57.40%). The margins of safety and acceptable criteria for soil ecosystems health for using Fe(0) NPs in field scale applications were also recommended. Results showed that RQs are larger than 1 in all soil layers when setting a stricter threshold of ∼1.02mgL(-1) of Fe(0) NPs. This C. elegans biomarker-based risk model affords new insights into the links between widespread use of Fe(0) NPs and environmental risk assessment and offers potential environmental implications of metal-based NPs for in situ remediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a risk-based environmental management tool for drilling discharges. Summary of a four-year project.

PubMed

Singsaas, Ivar; Rye, Henrik; Frost, Tone Karin; Smit, Mathijs G D; Garpestad, Eimund; Skare, Ingvild; Bakke, Knut; Veiga, Leticia Falcao; Buffagni, Melania; Follum, Odd-Arne; Johnsen, Ståle; Moltu, Ulf-Einar; Reed, Mark

2008-04-01

This paper briefly summarizes the ERMS project and presents the developed model by showing results from environmental fates and risk calculations of a discharge from offshore drilling operations. The developed model calculates environmental risks for the water column and sediments resulting from exposure to toxic stressors (e.g., chemicals) and nontoxic stressors (e.g., suspended particles, sediment burial). The approach is based on existing risk assessment techniques described in the European Union technical guidance document on risk assessment and species sensitivity distributions. The model calculates an environmental impact factor, which characterizes the overall potential impact on the marine environment in terms of potentially impacted water volume and sediment area. The ERMS project started in 2003 and was finalized in 2007. In total, 28 scientific reports and 9 scientific papers have been delivered from the ERMS project (http://www.sintef.no/erms).

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Nanomaterial categorization for assessing risk potential to facilitate regulatory decision-making.

PubMed

Godwin, Hilary; Nameth, Catherine; Avery, David; Bergeson, Lynn L; Bernard, Daniel; Beryt, Elizabeth; Boyes, William; Brown, Scott; Clippinger, Amy J; Cohen, Yoram; Doa, Maria; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Holden, Patricia; Houck, Keith; Kane, Agnes B; Klaessig, Frederick; Kodas, Toivo; Landsiedel, Robert; Lynch, Iseult; Malloy, Timothy; Miller, Mary Beth; Muller, Julie; Oberdorster, Gunter; Petersen, Elijah J; Pleus, Richard C; Sayre, Philip; Stone, Vicki; Sullivan, Kristie M; Tentschert, Jutta; Wallis, Philip; Nel, Andre E

2015-01-01

For nanotechnology to meet its potential as a game-changing and sustainable technology, it is important to ensure that the engineered nanomaterials and nanoenabled products that gain entry to the marketplace are safe and effective. Tools and methods are needed for regulatory purposes to allow rapid material categorization according to human health and environmental risk potential, so that materials of high concern can be targeted for additional scrutiny, while material categories that pose the least risk can receive expedited review. Using carbon nanotubes as an example, we discuss how data from alternative testing strategies can be used to facilitate engineered nanomaterial categorization according to risk potential and how such an approach could facilitate regulatory decision-making in the future.

Potential economic impact assessment for cattle parasites in Mexico review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Here, economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Mexico were estimated on an annual basis. The main factors taken into consideration for this assessment included the total number of animals at risk, potential detrimental effects of parasitism on milk production or weight gain, and records of cond...

A risk assessment of direct and indirect exposure to emissions from a proposed hazardous waste incinerator in Puerto Rico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hallinger, K.; Huggins, A.; Warner, L.

1995-12-31

An Indirect Exposure Assessment (IEA) was conducted, under USEPA`s RCRA Combustion Strategy, as part of the Part B permitting process for a proposed hazardous waste incinerator. The IEA involved identification of constituents of concern, emissions estimations, air dispersion and deposition modeling, evaluation of site-specific exposure pathways/scenarios, and food chain modeling in order to evaluate potential human health and environmental risks. The COMPDEP model was used to determine ambient ground level concentrations and dry and wet deposition rates of constituents of concern. The air modeling results were input into 50th percentile (Central) and 95th percentile (High-End) exposure scenarios which evaluated directmore » exposure via inhalation, dermal contact, and soil ingestion pathways, and indirect exposure through the food chain. The indirect pathway analysis considered the accumulation of constituents in plants and animals used as food sources by local inhabitants. Local food consumption data obtained from the Puerto Rico USDA were combined with realistic present-day and future-use exposure scenarios such as residential use, pineapple farming, and subsistence farming to obtain a comprehensive evaluation of risk, Overall risk was calculated using constituent doses and toxicity factors associated with the various routes of exposure. Risk values for each exposure pathway were summed to determine total carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic hazard to exposed individuals. A population risk assessment was also conducted in order to assess potential risks to the population surrounding the facility. Results of the assessment indicated no acute effects from constituents of concern, and a high-end excess lifetime cancer risk of approximately 6 in a million with dioxins (as 2,3,7,8-TCDD) and arsenic dominating the risk estimate.« less

Occurrence and risk assessment of potentially toxic elements and typical organic pollutants in contaminated rural soils.

PubMed

Xu, Yongfeng; Dai, Shixiang; Meng, Ke; Wang, Yuting; Ren, Wenjie; Zhao, Ling; Christie, Peter; Teng, Ying

2018-07-15

The residual levels and risk assessment of several potentially toxic elements (PTEs), phthalate esters (PAEs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in rural soils near different types of pollution sources in Tianjin, China, were studied. The soils were found to be polluted to different extents with PTEs, PAEs and PAHs from different pollution sources. The soil concentrations of chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), acenaphthylene (Any) and acenaphthene (Ane) were higher than their corresponding regulatory reference limits. The health risk assessment model used to calculate human exposure indicates that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks from selected pollutants were generally acceptable or close to acceptable. Different types of pollution sources and soil physicochemical properties substantially affected the soil residual concentrations of and risks from these pollutants. PTEs in soils collected from agricultural lands around industrial and residential areas and organic pollutants (PAEs and PAHs) in soils collected from agricultural areas around livestock breeding were higher than those from other types of pollution sources and merit long-term monitoring. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Military Field-Water Quality. Volume 7. Performance Evaluation of the 600-GPH Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Unit (ROWPU): reverse Osmosis (RO) Components

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

Data-for ASsessingHealthRISKS In Potential Theaters ~ of Operation forU,5. Mil-itary._orces. Jf-jr cLAss t:cAToN 9; r-.$ ’AGg UNCLASSIFIED Volume 7...Bypass, Potable-Water Disinfection,_ and Water-Quality Analysis Techniques; and Vol. 9, Data for Assessing Health Risks in Potential Theaters of Operation ...cleaning the RO elements, with objectives of improving solute rejection and reducing operating pressure. The most common method is to flush citric acid

Towards Prevention of Breast Cancer: What Are the Clinical Challenges?

PubMed

Borgquist, Signe; Hall, Per; Lipkus, Isaac; Garber, Judy E

2018-05-01

The dramatic increase in breast cancer incidence compels a paradigm shift in our preventive efforts. There are several barriers to overcome before prevention becomes an established part of breast cancer management. The objective of this review is to identify the clinical challenges for improved breast cancer prevention and discuss current knowledge on breast cancer risk assessment methods, risk communication, ethics, and interventional efforts with the aim of covering the aspects relevant for a breast cancer prevention trial. Herein, the following five areas are discussed: (i) Adequate tools for identification of women at high risk of breast cancer suggestively entitled Prevent! Online. (ii) Consensus on the definition of high risk, which is regarded as mandatory for all risk communication and potential prophylactic interventions. (iii) Risk perception and communication regarding risk information. (iv) Potential ethical concerns relevant for future breast cancer prevention programs. (v) Risk-reducing programs involving multileveled prevention depending on identified risk. Taken together, devoted efforts from both policy makers and health care providers are warranted to improve risk assessment and risk counseling in women at risk for breast cancer to optimize the prevention of breast cancer. Cancer Prev Res; 11(5); 255-64. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

PubMed

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

Integrated viral clearance strategies-reflecting on the present, projecting to the future.

PubMed

Roush, David J

2018-01-20

Viral clearance and inactivation are critical steps in ensuring the safety of biological products derived from mammalian cell culture and are a component of an adventitious agent control strategy which spans both upstream and downstream processes. Although these approaches have been sufficient to support the development of biologics to date, the empirical and semi-quantitative nature of the approach leaves some potential gaps. For example, the concept of performing a quantitative risk assessment for the downstream components of virus safety was introduced in ICH Q5A for XMuLV. An ideal future state would be to perform a similar quantitative risk assessment for a range of viruses based on an assessment of potential virus risk in both upstream and downstream processes. This assessment combined with an integrated control strategy (including monitoring) would be extremely beneficial in minimizing potential adventitious agent risks. Significant progress has been achieved towards this goal in the last several years including recent advances in quantification of virus sequences in cell banks (ADVTIG), development of truly modular or generic viral clearance claims for specific unit operations, enhanced controls of upstream media (HTST/nanofiltration) and the use of RVLP for in-process monitoring. The recent shift towards continuous processing has the potential to enhance the criticality of in-line monitoring and the complexity of viral clearance and inactivation (owing to a wide range of potential 'worst case' viral clearance scenarios). However, gaps exist in, firstly, the ability to quantify potential virus risk levels in process streams in real-time, secondly, mechanistic understanding of virus/chromatography media interactions, and thirdly, mechanistic understanding of virus/filter interactions. Some new technologies may also need to be developed to allow for real-time confirmation of virus inactivation and clearance to support process development (both batch and continuous) and assessment of the impact of process deviations during manufacturing. This review paper provides an overview of the current state of an overall integrated control strategy for upstream and downstream processing and highlights the investments that could be pursued to achieve the future state of a quantitative virus risk assessment for a range of viruses. One potential approach to address these gaps is the use of data mining from large, comprehensive and diverse data sets to establish heuristic rules for virus detection, clearance and inactivation followed by specific hypothesis-driven experiments for cases that fall outside of the normal paradigm. Once this approach reaches a mature state suitable for implementation, there is an opportunity to update regulatory guidance (e.g. ICH Q5A) accordingly. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment can be a game-changing information technology--but too often it isn't.

PubMed

Goble, Robert; Bier, Vicki M

2013-11-01

The printing press was a game-changing information technology. Risk assessment could be also. At present, risk assessments are commonly used as one-time decision aids: they provide justification for a particular decision, and afterwards usually sit on a shelf. However, when viewed as information technologies, their potential uses are much broader. Risk assessments: (1) are repositories of structured information and a medium for communication; (2) embody evaluative structures for setting priorities; (3) can preserve information over time and permit asynchronous communication, thus encouraging learning and adaptation; and (4) explicitly address uncertain futures. Moreover, because of their "what-if" capabilities, risk assessments can serve as a platform for constructive discussion among parties that hold different values. The evolution of risk assessment in the nuclear industry shows how such attributes have been used to lower core-melt risks substantially through improved templates for maintenance and more effective coordination with regulators (although risk assessment has been less commonly used in improving emergency-response capabilities). The end result of this evolution in the nuclear industry has been the development of "living" risk assessments that are updated more or less in real time to answer even routine operational questions. Similar but untapped opportunities abound for the use of living risk assessments to reduce risks in small operational decisions as well as large policy decisions in other areas of hazard management. They can also help improve understanding of and communication about risks, and future risk assessment and management. Realization of these opportunities will require significant changes in incentives and active promotion by the risk analytic community. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

WE-B-BRC-03: Risk in the Context of Medical Imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samei, E.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fraass, B.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

Potential health risk assessment of heavy metals via consumption of caviar of Persian sturgeon.

PubMed

Sobhanardakani, S

2017-10-15

Caviar may contain high levels of toxic metals. Therefore determination of health risk assessment of the heavy metals in this luxury product is vital. In this study, an Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectrometer and a Direct Mercury Analyzer were used to assess the contents of elements in caviar of wild Persian sturgeon. The results showed that the contents of Ba, Cr, Fe, Hg, Mn and Zn (mgkg -1 ) in caviar samples were 0.95, 0.27, 71.3, 1.44, 0.01 and 17.0, respectively. Also, Health Risk Index values were within the safe limits (HRI<1), and there is no potential health risk for adults and children via consumption of caviar. Finally, considering the contents of Fe and Hg were higher than Maximum Permissible Limits in the caviar samples related to the discharge of pollutants into the aquatic environment, monitoring of chemicals accumulation in the foodstuff is recommended. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public health consequences of macrolide use in food animals: a deterministic risk assessment.

PubMed

Hurd, H Scott; Doores, Stephanie; Hayes, Dermot; Mathew, Alan; Maurer, John; Silley, Peter; Singer, Randall S; Jones, Ronald N

2004-05-01

The potential impact on human health from antibiotic-resistant bacteria selected by use of antibiotics in food animals has resulted in many reports and recommended actions. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Veterinary Medicine has issued Guidance Document 152, which advises veterinary drug sponsors of one potential process for conducting a qualitative risk assessment of drug use in food animals. Using this guideline, we developed a deterministic model to assess the risk from two macrolide antibiotics, tylosin and tilmicosin. The scope of modeling included all label claim uses of both macrolides in poultry, swine, and beef cattle. The Guidance Document was followed to define the hazard, which is illness (i) caused by foodborne bacteria with a resistance determinant, (ii) attributed to a specified animal-derived meat commodity, and (iii) treated with a human use drug of the same class. Risk was defined as the probability of this hazard combined with the consequence of treatment failure due to resistant Campylobacter spp. or Enterococcus faecium. A binomial event model was applied to estimate the annual risk for the U.S. general population. Parameters were derived from industry drug use surveys, scientific literature, medical guidelines, and government documents. This unique farm-to-patient risk assessment demonstrated that use of tylosin and tilmicosin in food animals presents a very low risk of human treatment failure, with an approximate annual probability of less than 1 in 10 million Campylobacter-derived and approximately 1 in 3 billion E. faecium-derived risk.

Quantifying the Effects of Pesticide Exposure on Seasonal Fecundity Rates of Birds

EPA Science Inventory

Current risk assessment practice uses the results of avian reproduction tests in risk quotients to classify the potential for pesticide use to adversely affect avian reproductive success. However, as risk assessors move toward better understanding the population-level consequenc...

HUMAN MILK BIOMONITORING DATA: INTERPRETATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT ISSUES

EPA Science Inventory

Biomonitoring data can, under certain conditions, be used to describe potential risks to human health (for example, blood lead levels used to determine children's neurodevelopmental risk). At present, there are very few chemical exposures at low levels for which sufficient data ...

Instruments for Assessing Risk of Bias and Other Methodological Criteria of Published Animal Studies: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Krauth, David; Woodruff, Tracey J.

2013-01-01

Background: Results from animal toxicology studies are critical to evaluating the potential harm from exposure to environmental chemicals or the safety of drugs prior to human testing. However, there is significant debate about how to evaluate the methodology and potential biases of the animal studies. There is no agreed-upon approach, and a systematic evaluation of current best practices is lacking. Objective: We performed a systematic review to identify and evaluate instruments for assessing the risk of bias and/or other methodological criteria of animal studies. Method: We searched Medline (January 1966–November 2011) to identify all relevant articles. We extracted data on risk of bias criteria (e.g., randomization, blinding, allocation concealment) and other study design features included in each assessment instrument. Discussion: Thirty distinct instruments were identified, with the total number of assessed risk of bias, methodological, and/or reporting criteria ranging from 2 to 25. The most common criteria assessed were randomization (25/30, 83%), investigator blinding (23/30, 77%), and sample size calculation (18/30, 60%). In general, authors failed to empirically justify why these or other criteria were included. Nearly all (28/30, 93%) of the instruments have not been rigorously tested for validity or reliability. Conclusion: Our review highlights a number of risk of bias assessment criteria that have been empirically tested for animal research, including randomization, concealment of allocation, blinding, and accounting for all animals. In addition, there is a need for empirically testing additional methodological criteria and assessing the validity and reliability of a standard risk of bias assessment instrument. Citation: Krauth D, Woodruff TJ, Bero L. 2013. Instruments for assessing risk of bias and other methodological criteria of published animal studies: a systematic review. Environ Health Perspect 121:985–992 (2013); http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206389 PMID:23771496

Applying Earth Observation Data to agriculture risk management: a public-private collaboration to develop drought maps in North-East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surminski, S.; Holt Andersen, B.; Hohl, R.; Andersen, S.

2012-04-01

Earth Observation Data (EO) can improve climate risk assessment particularly in developing countries where densities of weather stations are low. Access to data that reflects exposure to weather and climate risks is a key condition for any successful risk management approach. This is of particular importance in the context of agriculture and drought risk, where historical data sets, accurate current data about crop growth and weather conditions, as well as information about potential future changes based on climate projections and socio-economic factors are all relevant, but often not available to stakeholders. Efforts to overcome these challenges in using EO data have so far been predominantly focused on developed countries, where satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes (NDVI) and the MERIS Global Vegetation Indexes (MGVI), are already used within the agricultural sector for assessing and managing crop risks and to parameterize crop yields. This paper assesses how public-private collaboration can foster the application of these data techniques. The findings are based on a pilot project in North-East China where severe droughts frequently impact the country's largest corn and soybeans areas. With support from the European Space Agency (ESA), a consortium of meteorological experts, mapping firms and (re)insurance experts has worked to explore the potential use and value of EO data for managing crop risk and assessing exposure to drought for four provinces in North-East China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Liaoning). Combining NDVI and MGVI data with meteorological observations to help alleviate shortcomings of NDVI specific to crop types and region has resulted in the development of new drought maps for the time 2000-2011 in digital format at a high resolution (1x1 km). The observed benefits of this data application range from improved risk management to cost effective drought monitoring and claims verification for insurance purposes. This paper concludes by exploring the potential of replicating such a partnership approach to climate risk assessment in other regions. Authors of the paper: Surminski, Swenja (London School of Economics); Holt Andersen, Birgitte (CWare); Hohl, Roman (Swiss Re); Andersen, Søren (COWI)

Operationalizing the assessment and management of violence risk in the short-term.

PubMed

Doyle, Michael; Logan, Caroline

2012-01-01

Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Potential Moderating Effects of Selenium on Mercury Uptake and Selenium:Mercury Molar Ratios in Fish From Oak Ridge and Savannah River Site - 12086

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Donio, Mark

2012-07-01

Mercury contamination is an important remediation issue at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation and to a lesser extent at other DOE sites because of the hazard it presents, potential consequences to humans and eco-receptors, and completed pathways, to offsite receptors. Recent work has emphasized that selenium might ameliorate the toxicity of mercury, and we examine the selenium:mercury (Se:Hg) molar ratios in fish from Oak Ridge, and compare them to Se:Hg molar ratios in fish from the Savannah River. Selenium/mercury molar ratios varied considerably among and within fish species. There was considerable variation in the molar ratiosmore » for individual fish (as opposed to mean ratios by species) for freshwater fish from both sites. The inter-individual variation in molar ratios indicates that such that the molar ratios of mean Se and Hg concentrations may not be representative. Even for fish species with relatively low mercury levels, some individual fish have molar ratios less than unity, the value sometime thought to be protective. Selenium levels varied narrowly regardless of fish size, consistent with homeostatic regulation of this essential trace element. The data indicate that considerable attention will need to be directed toward variations and variances, as well as the mechanisms of the interaction of selenium and mercury, before risk assessment and risk management policies can use this information to manage mercury pollution and risk. Even so, if there are high levels of selenium in the fish from Poplar Creek on Oak Ridge, then the potential exists for some amelioration of adverse health effects, on the fish themselves, predators that eat them, and people who consume them. This work will aid DOE because it will allow managers and scientists to understand another aspect that affects fate and transport of mercury, as well as the potential effects of methylmercury in fish for human and ecological receptors. The variability within fish species, however, suggests that the relative Se:Hg molar ratios in fish are not stable enough to be used in risk assessment at this time. Nor is it known how much excess selenium is required to confer any degree of protectiveness. That is, in conducting risk assessments, it is not possible to determine the spread of ratios, which would be needed for probabilistic risk assessment. Significantly more fish samples per species are required to begin to generate data that would allow it use in risk assessment. Adding Se:Hg molar ratios seems to complicate risk assessment for the potential adverse effects of mercury exposure, and using mercury levels at this time remains the most viable option. (authors)« less

Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain.

PubMed

Sainz-Elipe, Sandra; Latorre, Jose Manuel; Escosa, Raul; Masià, Montserrat; Fuentes, Marius Vicent; Mas-Coma, Santiago; Bargues, Maria Dolores

2010-07-31

International travel and immigration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. This fact and climate change, prolonging the period favouring vector development, require an analysis of the malaria transmission resurgence risk in areas of southern Europe. Such a study is made for the first time in Spain. The Ebro Delta historically endemic area was selected due to its rice field landscape, the presence of only one vector, Anopheles atroparvus, with densities similar to those it presented when malaria was present, in a situation which pronouncedly differs from already assessed potential resurgence areas in other Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy, where many different Anopheles species coexist and a different vector species dominates. The transmission risk was assessed analysing: 1) climate diagrams including the minimum temperature for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax development; 2) monthly evolution of the Gradient Model Risk (GMR) index, specifying transmission risk period and number of potential Plasmodium generations; 3) ecological characteristics using remote sensing images with the Eurasia Land Cover characteristics database and the monthly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); 4) evaluation of A. atroparvus population dynamics. Climatological analyses and GMR index show that a transmission risk presently exists, lasting from May until September for P. falciparum, and from May until October for P. vivax. The GMR index shows that the temperature increase does not actually mean a transmission risk increase if accompanied by a precipitation decrease reducing the number of parasite generations and transmission period. Nevertheless, this limitation is offset by the artificial flooding of the rice fields. Maximum NDVI values and A. atroparvus maximum abundance correspond to months with maximum growth of the rice fields. The Ebro Delta presents the ecological characteristics that favour transmission. The temperature increase has favoured a widening of the monthly potential transmission window with respect to when malaria was endemic. The combined application of modified climate diagrams and GMR index, together with spatial characterization conforms a useful tool for assessing potential areas at risk of malaria resurgence. NDVI is a good marker when dealing with a rice field area.

Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background International travel and immigration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. This fact and climate change, prolonging the period favouring vector development, require an analysis of the malaria transmission resurgence risk in areas of southern Europe. Such a study is made for the first time in Spain. The Ebro Delta historically endemic area was selected due to its rice field landscape, the presence of only one vector, Anopheles atroparvus, with densities similar to those it presented when malaria was present, in a situation which pronouncedly differs from already assessed potential resurgence areas in other Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy, where many different Anopheles species coexist and a different vector species dominates. Methods The transmission risk was assessed analysing: 1) climate diagrams including the minimum temperature for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax development; 2) monthly evolution of the Gradient Model Risk (GMR) index, specifying transmission risk period and number of potential Plasmodium generations; 3) ecological characteristics using remote sensing images with the Eurasia Land Cover characteristics database and the monthly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); 4) evaluation of A. atroparvus population dynamics. Results Climatological analyses and GMR index show that a transmission risk presently exists, lasting from May until September for P. falciparum, and from May until October for P. vivax. The GMR index shows that the temperature increase does not actually mean a transmission risk increase if accompanied by a precipitation decrease reducing the number of parasite generations and transmission period. Nevertheless, this limitation is offset by the artificial flooding of the rice fields. Maximum NDVI values and A. atroparvus maximum abundance correspond to months with maximum growth of the rice fields. Conclusions The Ebro Delta presents the ecological characteristics that favour transmission. The temperature increase has favoured a widening of the monthly potential transmission window with respect to when malaria was endemic. The combined application of modified climate diagrams and GMR index, together with spatial characterization conforms a useful tool for assessing potential areas at risk of malaria resurgence. NDVI is a good marker when dealing with a rice field area. PMID:20673367

Risk assessments for dating violence in mid to late adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Tapp, James; Moore, Estelle

2016-10-01

The objective of this paper is to review risk instruments that have been used in the assessment of the potential for violence within the dating relationships of young people. A review of the dating violence literature was conducted to identify risk assessment approaches that have been used to predict harmful behaviour within the dating relationships of people aged between 15 and 30 years. Risk assessments were evaluated on recommended quality criteria: predictive validity, accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) and inter-rater reliability. Only five studies describing assessments that focused specifically on dating violence risk factors were selected for review. Three assessments encompassed dating behaviours by victims that have been associated with an increased risk of further victimisation. Drawing on this evidence, we conclude that young people appear to be at greater risk of encountering dating violence if they have experienced violence in earlier attachment relationships; if their skills for coping with conflict and responding to coercion are limited and if the presence of peer influences reinforces offence supportive attitudes. The reliability and validity of existing intimate partner violence risk assessments that conceptually overlap with elements of dating violence risk warrant investigation to inform risk assessment developments in this field and, building on this, possible interventions to minimise future harm. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A GIS technology based potential eco-risk assessment of metals in urban soils in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Wang, Meie; Bai, Yanying; Chen, Weiping; Markert, Bernd; Peng, Chi; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2012-02-01

Ecological risks of heavy metals in urban soils were evaluated using Beijing, China as an example. Cadmium, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Ni contents of 233 surface soils sampled by 1 min latitude × 1 min longitude grid were used to identify their spatial distribution patterns and potential emission sources. Throughout the city, longer the duration of urbanization greater was the accumulations of heavy metals especially, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. The soil Zn mainly came from the wears of vehicular tires. Point source emissions of heavy metals were few and far in the downwind south-east quadrant of Beijing. The calculated risk indices showed potential median eco-risks in the ancient central city. No potential high eco-risk due to soil-borne heavy metals was found. The potential medium eco-risk areas in Beijing would expand from the initial 24 to 110 km(2) if soil pH were to reduce by 0.5 units in anticipation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Pollution Characteristics and Potential Ecological Risk of Heavy Metals in Urban Surface Water Sediments from Yongkang].

PubMed

Qi, Peng; Yu, Shu-quan; Zhang, Chao; Liang, Li-cheng; Che, Ji-lu

2015-12-01

In order to understand the pollution characteristics of heavy metals in surface water sediments of Yongkang, we analyzed the concentrations of 10 heavy metals including Ti, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Pb and Fe in 122 sediment samples, explored the underlying source of heavy metals and then assessed the potential ecological risks of those metals by methods of the index of geo-accumulation and the potential ecological risk. The study results showed that: 10 heavy metal contents followed the order: Fe > Ti > Mn > Zn > Cr > Cu > Ph > Ni > As > Co, all heavy metals except for Ti were 1. 17 to 3.78 times higher than those of Zhejiang Jinhua- Quzhou basin natural soils background values; The concentrations of all heavy metals had a significantly correlation between each other, indicating that those heavy metals had similar sources of pollution, and it mainly came from industrial and vehicle pollutions; The pollution extent of heavy metals in sediments by geo-accumulation index (Igeo) followed the order: Cr > Zn > Ni > Cu > Fe > As > Pb >Mn > Ti, thereinto, Cr, Zn, Cu and Ni were moderately polluted or heavily polluted at some sampling sites; The potential ecological risk of 9 heavy metals in sediments were in the following order: Cu > As > Ni > Cr > Pb > Co > Zn > Mn > Ti, Cu and As contributed the most to the total potential ecological risk, accounting for 22.84% and 21. 62% , others had a total of 55.54% , through the ecological risk assessment, 89. 34% of the potential ecological risk indexes ( RI) were low and 10. 66% were higher. The contamination level of heavy metals in Yongkang was slight in total, but was heavy in local areas.

Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2012-01-01

Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

2014-03-25

Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cumulative Environmental Risk in Substance Abusing Women: Early Intervention, Parenting Stress, Child Abuse Potential and Child Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelley, Susan J.

2003-01-01

A study of 161 substance-abusing mothers assessed 10 maternal risk factors: maternal depression; domestic violence; nondomestic violence; family size; incarceration; no significant other at home; negative life events; psychiatric problems; homelessness; and drug use severity. Parenting stress and child abuse potential was higher for women with…

FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

The socio-spatial context as a risk factor for hospitalization due to mental illness in the metropolitan areas of Portugal.

PubMed

Loureiro, Adriana; Costa, Cláudia; Almendra, Ricardo; Freitas, Ângela; Santana, Paula

2015-11-01

This study's aims are: (i) identifying spatial patterns for the risk of hospitalization due to mental illness and for the potential risk resulting from contextual factors with influence on mental health; and (ii) analyzing the spatial association between risk of hospitalization due to mental illness and potential risk resulting from contextual factors in the metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto, Portugal. A cross-sectional ecological study was conducted by applying statistical methods for assessing spatial dependency and heterogeneity. Results reveal a spatial association between risk of hospitalization due to mental illness and potential risk resulting from contextual factors with a statistical relevance of moderate intensity. 20% of the population under study lives in areas with a simultaneously high potential risk resulting from contextual factors and risk of hospitalization due to mental illness. Porto Metropolitan Area show the highest percentage of population living in parishes with a significantly high risk of hospitalization due to mental health, which puts forward the need for interventions on territory-adjusted contextual factors influencing mental health.

The use of genetically modified mice in cancer risk assessment: challenges and limitations.

PubMed

Eastmond, David A; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; French, John E; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2013-09-01

The use of genetically modified (GM) mice to assess carcinogenicity is playing an increasingly important role in the safety evaluation of chemicals. While progress has been made in developing and evaluating mouse models such as the Trp53⁺/⁻, Tg.AC and the rasH2, the suitability of these models as replacements for the conventional rodent cancer bioassay and for assessing human health risks remains uncertain. The objective of this research was to evaluate the use of accelerated cancer bioassays with GM mice for assessing the potential health risks associated with exposure to carcinogenic agents. We compared the published results from the GM bioassays to those obtained in the National Toxicology Program's conventional chronic mouse bioassay for their potential use in risk assessment. Our analysis indicates that the GM models are less efficient in detecting carcinogenic agents but more consistent in identifying non-carcinogenic agents. We identified several issues of concern related to the design of the accelerated bioassays (e.g., sample size, study duration, genetic stability and reproducibility) as well as pathway-dependency of effects, and different carcinogenic mechanisms operable in GM and non-GM mice. The use of the GM models for dose-response assessment is particularly problematic as these models are, at times, much more or less sensitive than the conventional rodent cancer bioassays. Thus, the existing GM mouse models may be useful for hazard identification, but will be of limited use for dose-response assessment. Hence, caution should be exercised when using GM mouse models to assess the carcinogenic risks of chemicals.

The use of genetically modified mice in cancer risk assessment: Challenges and limitations*

PubMed Central

Eastmond, David A.; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V.; French, John E.; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2015-01-01

The use of genetically modified (GM) mice to assess carcinogenicity is playing an increasingly important role in the safety evaluation of chemicals. While progress has been made in developing and evaluating mouse models such as the Trp53+/−, Tg.AC and the rasH2, the suitability of these models as replacements for the conventional rodent cancer bioassay and for assessing human health risks remains uncertain. The objective of this research was to evaluate the use of accelerated cancer bioassays with GM mice for assessing the potential health risks associated with exposure to carcinogenic agents. We compared the published results from the GM bioassays to those obtained in the National Toxicology Program’s conventional chronic mouse bioassay for their potential use in risk assessment. Our analysis indicates that the GM models are less efficient in detecting carcinogenic agents but more consistent in identifying non-carcinogenic agents. We identified several issues of concern related to the design of the accelerated bioassays (e.g., sample size, study duration, genetic stability and reproducibility) as well as pathway-dependency of effects, and different carcinogenic mechanisms operable in GM and non-GM mice. The use of the GM models for dose-response assessment is particularly problematic as these models are, at times, much more or less sensitive than the conventional rodent cancer bioassays. Thus, the existing GM mouse models may be useful for hazard identification, but will be of limited use for dose-response assessment. Hence, caution should be exercised when using GM mouse models to assess the carcinogenic risks of chemicals. PMID:23985072

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K, Bois FY, Burgoon LD, Chiu WA, Crawford-Brown D, Crofton KM, DeVito M, Devlin RB, Edwards SW, Guyton KZ, Hattis D, Judson RS, Knight D, Krewski D, Lambert J, Maull EA, Mendrick D, Paoli GM, Patel CJ, Perkins EJ, Poje G, Portier CJ, Rusyn I, Schulte PA, Simeonov A, Smith MT, Thayer KA, Thomas RS, Thomas R, Tice RR, Vandenberg JJ, Villeneuve DL, Wesselkamper S, Whelan M, Whittaker C, White R, Xia M, Yauk C, Zeise L, Zhao J, DeWoskin RS. 2016. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment multiyear study—highlights of findings, applications to risk assessment, and future directions. Environ Health Perspect 124:1671–1682; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP233 PMID:27091369

IRIS TOXICOLOGICAL REVIEW AND SUMMARY ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's assessment of the noncancer health effects and carcinogenic potential of 1,2,3-trichloropropane (TCP) was added to the IRIS database in 1990. The IRIS program is updating the IRIS assessment for TCP. This update will incorporate health effects information published since the last assessment was prepared as well as new risk assessment methods. The IRIS assessment for TCP will consist of a Toxicological Review and IRIS Summary. The Toxicological Review is a critical review of the physicochemical and toxicokinetic properties of the chemical and its toxicity in humans and experimental systems. The assessment will present reference values for noncancer effects of TCP (RfD and RfC) and a cancer assessment. The Toxicological Review and IRIS Summary will be subject to internal peer consultation, Agency review, and external scientific peer review. The final products will constitute the Agency's opinion on the toxicity of TCP. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for 1,2,3-trichloropropane. IRIS is an EPA database containing the Agency's consensus scientific positions on potential adverse human effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment process, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

Physical Activity Assessment

Cancer.gov

Current evidence convincingly indicates that physical activity reduces the risk of colon and breast cancer. Physical activity may also reduce risk of prostate cancer. Scientists are also evaluating potential relationships between physical activity and other cancers.

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals

Treesearch

Valery E. Forbes; Chris J. Salice; Bjorn Birnir; Randy J.F. Bruins; Peter Calow; Virginie Ducrot; Nika Galic; Kristina Garber; Bret C. Harvey; Henriette Jager; Andrew Kanarek; Robert Pastorok; Steve F. Railsback; Richard Rebarber; Pernille Thorbek

2017-01-01

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem...

A Bayesian approach to landscape ecological risk assessment applied to the upper Grande Ronde watershed, Oregon

Treesearch

Kimberley K. Ayre; Wayne G. Landis

2012-01-01

We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances,...

Urban stormwater harvesting and reuse: a probe into the chemical, toxicology and microbiological contaminants in water quality.

PubMed

Chong, Meng Nan; Sidhu, Jatinder; Aryal, Rupak; Tang, Janet; Gernjak, Wolfgang; Escher, Beate; Toze, Simon

2013-08-01

Stormwater is one of the last major untapped urban water resources that can be exploited as an alternative water source in Australia. The information in the current Australian Guidelines for Water Recycling relating to stormwater harvesting and reuse only emphasises on a limited number of stormwater quality parameters. In order to supply stormwater as a source for higher value end-uses, a more comprehensive assessment on the potential public health risks has to be undertaken. Owing to the stochastic variations in rainfall, catchment hydrology and also the types of non-point pollution sources that can provide contaminants relating to different anthropogenic activities and catchment land uses, the characterisation of public health risks in stormwater is complex, tedious and not always possible through the conventional detection and analytical methods. In this study, a holistic approach was undertaken to assess the potential public health risks in urban stormwater samples from a medium-density residential catchment. A combined chemical-toxicological assessment was used to characterise the potential health risks arising from chemical contaminants, while a combination of standard culture methods and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) methods was used for detection and quantification of faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and pathogens in urban stormwater. Results showed that the concentration of chemical contaminants and associated toxicity were relatively low when benchmarked against other alternative water sources such as recycled wastewater. However, the concentrations of heavy metals particularly cadmium and lead have exceeded the Australian guideline values, indicating potential public health risks. Also, high numbers of FIB were detected in urban stormwater samples obtained from wet weather events. In addition, qPCR detection of human-related pathogens suggested there are frequent sewage ingressions into the urban stormwater runoff during wet weather events. Further water quality monitoring study will be conducted at different contrasting urban catchments in order to undertake a more comprehensive public health risk assessment for urban stormwater.

Aquatic risk assessment of pesticides in Latin America.

PubMed

Carriquiriborde, Pedro; Mirabella, Paula; Waichman, Andrea; Solomon, Keith; Van den Brink, Paul J; Maund, Steve

2014-10-01

Latin America is anticipated to be a major growth market for agriculture and production is increasing with use of technologies such as pesticides. Reports of contamination of aquatic ecosystems by pesticides in Latin America have raised concerns about potential for adverse ecological effects. In the registration process of pesticides, all countries require significant data packages on aquatic toxicology and environmental fate. However, there are usually no specific requirements to conduct an aquatic risk assessment. To address this issue, the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry organized a workshop that brought together scientists from academia, government, and industry to review and elaborate on aquatic risk assessment frameworks that can be implemented into regulation of pesticides in Latin America. The workshop concluded that the international framework for risk assessments (protection goals, effects, and exposure assessments, risk characterization, and risk mitigation) is broadly applicable in Latin America but needs further refinement for the use in the region. Some of the challenges associated with these refinements are discussed in the article. It was recognized that there is potential for data sharing both within and outside of the region where conditions are similar. However, there is a need for research to compare local species and environmental conditions to those in other jurisdictions to be able to evaluate the applicability of data used in other countries. Development should also focus on human resources as there is a need to build local capacity and capability, and scientific collaboration and exchange between stakeholders in industry, government, and academia is also important. The meeting also emphasized that, although establishing a regionally relevant risk assessment framework is important, this also needs to be accompanied by enforcement of developed regulations and good management practices to help protect aquatic habitats. Education, training, and communication efforts are needed to achieve this. © 2014 SETAC.

Carcinogenicity assessments of biotechnology-derived pharmaceuticals: a review of approved molecules and best practice recommendations.

PubMed

Vahle, John L; Finch, Gregory L; Heidel, Shawn M; Hovland, David N; Ivens, Inge; Parker, Suezanne; Ponce, Rafael A; Sachs, Clifford; Steigerwalt, Ronald; Short, Brian; Todd, Marque D

2010-06-01

An important safety consideration for developing new therapeutics is assessing the potential that the therapy will increase the risk of cancer. For biotherapeutics, traditional two-year rodent bioassays are often not scientifically applicable or feasible. This paper is a collaborative effort of industry toxicologists to review past and current practice regarding carcinogenicity assessments of biotherapeutics and to provide recommendations. Publicly available information on eighty marketed protein biotherapeutics was reviewed. In this review, no assessments related to carcinogenicity or tumor growth promotion were identified for fifty-one of the eighty molecules. For the twenty-nine biotherapeutics in which assessments related to carcinogenicity were identified, various experimental approaches were employed. This review also discusses several key principles to aid in the assessment of carcinogenic potential, including (1) careful consideration of mechanism of action to identify theoretical risks, (2) careful investigation of existing data for indications of proliferative or immunosuppressive potential, and (3) characterization of any proliferative or immunosuppressive signals detected. Traditional two-year carcinogenicity assays should not be considered as the default method for assessing the carcinogenicity potential of biotherapeutics. If experimentation is considered warranted, it should be hypothesis driven and may include a variety of experimental models. Ultimately, it is important that preclinical data provide useful guidance in product labeling.

[Main factors of occupational risk for railway workers].

PubMed

Kaptsov, V A; Pankova, V B; Kutovoĭ, V S

2001-01-01

The paper shows the specific features of development of occupational diseases associated with the classes of working conditions by the degree of hazard and risk. It provides a scientifically founded evidence for that the indicators of a potential risk of working conditions should be included into the methodology of assessment of a professional risk.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Is It Everything We Feared for Health?

PubMed

Labonté, Ronald; Schram, Ashley; Ruckert, Arne

2016-04-17

Negotiations surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade and investment agreement have recently concluded. Although trade and investment agreements, part of a broader shift to global economic integration, have been argued to be vital to improved economic growth, health, and general welfare, these agreements have increasingly come under scrutiny for their direct and indirect health impacts. We conducted a prospective health impact analysis to identify and assess a selected array of potential health risks of the TPP. We adapted the standard protocol for Health impact assessments (HIAs) (screening, scoping, and appraisal) to our aim of assessing potential health risks of trade and investment policy, and selected a health impact review methodology. This methodology is used to create a summary estimation of the most significant impacts on health of a broad policy or cluster of policies, such as a comprehensive trade and investment agreement. Our analysis shows that there are a number of potentially serious health risks associated with the TPP, and details a range of policy implications for the health sector. Of particular focus are the potential implications of changes to intellectual property rights (IPRs), sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), technical barriers to trade (TBT), investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS), and regulatory coherence provisions on a range of issues, including access to medicines and health services, tobacco and alcohol control, diet-related health, and domestic health policy-making. We provide a list of policy recommendations to mitigate potential health risks associated with the TPP, and suggest that broad public consultations, including on the health risks of trade and investment agreements, should be part of all trade negotiations. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences

The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Is It Everything We Feared for Health?

PubMed Central

Labonté, Ronald; Schram, Ashley; Ruckert, Arne

2016-01-01

Background: Negotiations surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade and investment agreement have recently concluded. Although trade and investment agreements, part of a broader shift to global economic integration, have been argued to be vital to improved economic growth, health, and general welfare, these agreements have increasingly come under scrutiny for their direct and indirect health impacts. Methods: We conducted a prospective health impact analysis to identify and assess a selected array of potential health risks of the TPP. We adapted the standard protocol for Health impact assessments (HIAs) (screening, scoping, and appraisal) to our aim of assessing potential health risks of trade and investment policy, and selected a health impact review methodology. This methodology is used to create a summary estimation of the most significant impacts on health of a broad policy or cluster of policies, such as a comprehensive trade and investment agreement. Results: Our analysis shows that there are a number of potentially serious health risks associated with the TPP, and details a range of policy implications for the health sector. Of particular focus are the potential implications of changes to intellectual property rights (IPRs), sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), technical barriers to trade (TBT), investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS), and regulatory coherence provisions on a range of issues, including access to medicines and health services, tobacco and alcohol control, diet-related health, and domestic health policy-making. Conclusion: We provide a list of policy recommendations to mitigate potential health risks associated with the TPP, and suggest that broad public consultations, including on the health risks of trade and investment agreements, should be part of all trade negotiations. PMID:27694662

Potential Applications for AQUATOX

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

AQUATOX has a myriad of potential applications to water management issues and programs, including water quality criteria and standards, TMDLs (Total Maximum Daily Loads), and ecological risk assessments of aquatic systems.

A proposed framework for assessing risk from less-than-lifetime exposures to carcinogens.

PubMed

Felter, Susan P; Conolly, Rory B; Bercu, Joel P; Bolger, P Michael; Boobis, Alan R; Bos, Peter M J; Carthew, Philip; Doerrer, Nancy G; Goodman, Jay I; Harrouk, Wafa A; Kirkland, David J; Lau, Serrine S; Llewellyn, G Craig; Preston, R Julian; Schoeny, Rita; Schnatter, A Robert; Tritscher, Angelika; van Velsen, Frans; Williams, Gary M

2011-07-01

Quantitative methods for estimation of cancer risk have been developed for daily, lifetime human exposures. There are a variety of studies or methodologies available to address less-than-lifetime exposures. However, a common framework for evaluating risk from less-than-lifetime exposures (including short-term and/or intermittent exposures) does not exist, which could result in inconsistencies in risk assessment practice. To address this risk assessment need, a committee of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Health and Environmental Sciences Institute conducted a multisector workshop in late 2009 to discuss available literature, different methodologies, and a proposed framework. The proposed framework provides a decision tree and guidance for cancer risk assessments for less-than-lifetime exposures based on current knowledge of mode of action and dose-response. Available data from rodent studies and epidemiological studies involving less-than-lifetime exposures are considered, in addition to statistical approaches described in the literature for evaluating the impact of changing the dose rate and exposure duration for exposure to carcinogens. The decision tree also provides for scenarios in which an assumption of potential carcinogenicity is appropriate (e.g., based on structural alerts or genotoxicity data), but bioassay or other data are lacking from which a chemical-specific cancer potency can be determined. This paper presents an overview of the rationale for the workshop, reviews historical background, describes the proposed framework for assessing less-than-lifetime exposures to potential human carcinogens, and suggests next steps.

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

2009-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Reservoir at Kevin Dome, Montana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Minh; Onishi, Tsubasa; Carey, James William

In this report, we describe risk assessment work done using the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) applied to CO 2 storage at Kevin Dome, Montana. Geologic CO 2 sequestration in saline aquifers poses certain risks including CO 2/brine leakage through wells or non-sealing faults into groundwater or to the land surface. These risks are difficult to quantify due to data availability and uncertainty. One solution is to explore the consequences of these limitations by running large numbers of numerical simulations on the primary CO2 injection reservoir, shallow reservoirs/aquifers, faults, and wells to assess leakage risks and uncertainties. However, a largemore » number of full-physics simulations is usually too computationally expensive. The NRAP integrated assessment model (NRAP-IAM) uses reduced order models (ROMs) developed from full-physics simulations to address this issue. A powerful stochastic framework allows NRAPIAM to explore complex interactions among many uncertain variables and evaluate the likely performance of potential sequestration sites.« less

Risk assessment of oil and gas well drilling activities in Iran - a case study: human factors.

PubMed

Amir-Heidari, Payam; Farahani, Hadi; Ebrahemzadih, Mehrzad

2015-01-01

Oil and gas well drilling activities are associated with numerous hazards which have the potential to cause injury or harm for people, property and the environment. These hazards are also a threat for the reputation of drilling companies. To prevent accidents and undesired events in drilling operations it is essential to identify, evaluate, assess and control the attendant risks. In this work, a structured methodology is proposed for risk assessment of drilling activities. A case study is performed to identify, analyze and assess the risks arising from human factors in one of the on shore drilling sites in southern Iran. A total of 17 major hazards were identified and analyzed using the proposed methodology. The results showed that the residual risks of 100% of these hazards were in the acceptable or transitional zone, and their levels were expected to be lowered further by proper controls. This structured methodology may also be used in other drilling sites and companies for assessing the risks.

From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders’ Strengths and Vulnerabilities

PubMed Central

Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.

2013-01-01

Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561

The potential of large studies for building genetic risk prediction models

Cancer.gov

NCI scientists have developed a new paradigm to assess hereditary risk prediction in common diseases, such as prostate cancer. This genetic risk prediction concept is based on polygenic analysis—the study of a group of common DNA sequences, known as singl

A SAFE consortium position paper: Update on microbial safety of fresh produce

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Surveys of fresh produce demonstrate potential to become contaminated with pathogenic microorganisms. The analysis of microbiological risk is generally divided into three categories: Risk Assessment identifies the factors that contribute to a problem; Risk Management identifies ways to solve a probl...

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia Noncancer Inhalation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In September 2016, EPA finalized the IRIS assessment of Ammonia (Noncancer Inhalation). The Toxicological Review was reviewed internally by EPA and by other federal agencies and White House Offices before public release in June 2016. Consistent with the May 2009 IRIS assessment development process, all written comments on IRIS assessments submitted by other federal agencies and White House Offices are made publicly available. Accordingly, interagency comments and the interagency science discussion materials provided to other agencies, including interagency review drafts of the IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia (Noncancer Inhalation) are posted on this site. Note: No major science comments were received on the Interagency Science Discussion Draft. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Variability in pesticides residues--the US experience.

PubMed

Suhre, F B

2000-07-01

The evolution of US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) process for estimating potential health risks from pesticide residues in or on food is examined in light of changes in US Legislation and the variability of residue data and assumptions used to estimate dietary exposure. In the 86 years since enactment of the Insecticide Act, pesticide laws have become progressively more health-based. Passage of the 1996 Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) requires EPA to place particular emphasis on assessing potential risk from pesticides to infants and children. Primary factors affecting the actual pesticide residues in food include frequency of application, percentage of crop treated, and the interval from treatment to harvest. Primary factors affecting the estimated pesticide residues in food include the source of the residue data, calculation techniques for non-detected residues, and the availability of data reflecting post-harvest treatments. Risk assessors must thoroughly consider these factors when assessing dietary risk to pesticides. Risk managers will need to consider these factors as a means of mitigating dietary risk from pesticides.

Heavy Metal Pollution, Fractionation, and Potential Ecological Risks in Sediments from Lake Chaohu (Eastern China) and the Surrounding Rivers

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lei; Liao, Qianjiahua; Shao, Shiguang; Zhang, Nan; Shen, Qiushi; Liu, Cheng

2015-01-01

Heavy metal (Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb) pollution, fractionation, and ecological risks in the sediments of Lake Chaohu (Eastern China), its eleven inflowing rivers and its only outflowing river were studied. An improved BCR (proposed by the European Community Bureau of Reference) sequential extraction procedure was applied to fractionate heavy metals within sediments, a geoaccumulation index was used to assess the extent of heavy metal pollution, and a risk assessment code was applied to evaluate potential ecological risks. Heavy metals in the Shuangqiao and Nanfei Rivers were generally higher than the other studied sites. Of the three Lake Chaohu sites, the highest concentrations were identified in western Chaohu. Heavy metal pollution and ecological risks in the lake’s only outflowing river were similar to those in the eastern region of the lake, to which the river is connected. Heavy metal concentrations occurred in the following order: Cd > Zn > Cu > Pb ≈ Ni ≈ Cr. Cr, Ni, and Cu made up the largest proportion of the residual fraction, while Cd was the most prominent metal in the exchangeable and carbonate-included fraction. Cd posed the greatest potential ecological risk; the heavy metals generally posed risks in the following order: Cd > Zn > Cu > Ni > Pb > Cr. PMID:26561822

Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

PubMed

MacGillivray, Brian H

2014-04-01

Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Partnership working between the Fire Service and NHS: delivering a cost-saving service to improve the safety of high-risk people.

PubMed

Craig, Joyce A; Creegan, Shelagh; Tait, Martin; Dolan, Donna

2015-04-14

The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and NHS Tayside piloted partnership working. A Community Fire Safety Link Worker provided Risk Assessments to adults, identified by community health teams, at high risk of fires, with the aim of reducing fires. An existing evaluation shows the Service developed a culture of 'high trust' between partners and had high client satisfaction. This paper reports on an economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role. An economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role was undertaken. Changes in the Risk Assessment score following delivery of the Service were used to estimate the potential fires avoided. These were valued using a national cost of a fire. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was deducted from these savings. The pilot was estimated to save 4.4 fires, equivalent to £286 per client. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was £55 per client, giving net savings of £231 per client. The pilot was cost-saving under all scenarios, with results sensitive to the probability of a fire. We believe this is the first evaluation of Fire Safety Risk Assessments. Partnership working, delivering joint Risk Assessments in the homes of people at high risk of fire, is modelled to be cost saving. Uncertainties in data and small sample are key limitations. Further research is required into the ex ante risk of fire by risk category. Despite these limitations, potential savings identified in this study supports greater adoption of this partnership initiative.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

PubMed

Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

2016-12-01

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Community Health Risk Assessment of Primary Aluminum Smelter Emissions

PubMed Central

Larivière, Claude

2014-01-01

Objective: Primary aluminum production is an industrial process with high potential health risk for workers. We consider in this article how to assess community health risks associated with primary aluminum smelter emissions. Methods: We reviewed the literature on health effects, community exposure data, and dose–response relationships of the principal hazardous agents emitted. Results: On the basis of representative measured community exposure levels, we were able to make rough estimates on health risks associated with specific agents and categorize these as none, low, medium, or high. Conclusions: It is possible to undertake a rough-estimate community Health Risk Assessment for individual smelters on the basis of information available in the epidemiological literature and local community exposure data. PMID:24806724

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C.; Renn, Ortwin

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the socialmore » impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.« less

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site.

PubMed

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

Human exposures to monomers resulting from consumer contact with polymers.

PubMed

Leber, A P

2001-06-01

Many consumer products are composed completely, or in part, of polymeric materials. Direct or indirect human contact results in potential exposures to monomers as a result of migrations of trace amounts from the polymeric matrix into foods, into the skin or other bodily surfaces. Typically, residual monomer levels in these polymers are <100 p.p.m., and represent exposures well below those observable in traditional toxicity testing. These product applications thus require alternative methods for evaluating health risks relating to monomer exposures. A typical approach includes: (a) assessment of potential human contacts for specific polymer uses; (b) utilization of data from toxicity testing of pure monomers, e.g. cancer bioassay results; and (c) mathematical risk assessment methods. Exposure potentials are measured in one of two analytical procedures: (1) migration of monomer from polymer into a simulant solvent (e.g. alcohol, acidic water, vegetable oil) appropriate for the intended use of the product (e.g. beer cans, food jars, packaging adhesive, dairy hose); or (2) total monomer content of the polymer, providing worse-case values for migratable monomer. Application of toxicity data typically involves NOEL or benchmark values for non-cancer endpoints, or tumorigenicity potencies for monomers demonstrated to be carcinogens. Risk assessments provide exposure 'safety margin' ratios between levels that: (1) are projected to be safe according to toxicity information, and (2) are potential monomer exposures posed by the intended use of the consumer product. This paper includes an example of a health risk assessment for a chewing gum polymer for which exposures to trace levels of butadiene monomer occur.

Risk assessment for adult butterflies exposed to the mosquito control pesticide naled.

PubMed

Bargar, Timothy A

2012-04-01

A prospective risk assessment was conducted for adult butterflies potentially exposed to the mosquito control insecticide naled. Published acute mortality data, exposure data collected during field studies, and morphometric data (total surface area and fresh body weight) for adult butterflies were combined in a probabilistic estimate of the likelihood that adult butterfly exposure to naled following aerial applications would exceed levels associated with acute mortality. Adult butterfly exposure was estimated based on the product of (1) naled residues on samplers and (2) an exposure metric that normalized total surface area for adult butterflies to their fresh weight. The likelihood that the 10th percentile refined effect estimate for adult butterflies exposed to naled would be exceeded following aerial naled applications was 67 to 80%. The greatest risk would be for butterflies in the family Lycaenidae, and the lowest risk would be for those in the family Hesperidae, assuming equivalent sensitivity to naled. A range of potential guideline naled deposition levels is presented that, if not exceeded, would reduce the risk of adult butterfly mortality. The results for this risk assessment were compared with other risk estimates for butterflies, and the implications for adult butterflies in areas targeted by aerial naled applications are discussed. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

A climate risk assessment of clean water supply in an urban area: A case study of South Tangerang city, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastiti, S. I. W.; Kusnoputranto, H.; Boer, R.; Utomo, S. W.

2018-03-01

The demand for clean water in South Tangerang, Indonesia, is very high. At present, this demand is mostly met by groundwater that is much influenced by climate variability, land cover change, and human activities. The local company on water services (PDAM) provides clean water services for only about 9% of the population. The climate risk assessment conducted by South Tangerang Government in 2016 indicates that several areas are potentially exposed to a high risk of climate change. Survey and in-depth interview with communities and sectoral officers suggest that a risk to clean water supply in this city is increasing. This study aims to assess climate potential risks on clean water supply based on the 2016 study. We adopted the method of that study by modifying some of the vulnerability indicators that can represent clean water access and supply. The results of the study demonstrate that many wards in South Tangerang would be exposed to high climate risks of clean water supply. By 2021, about 54% of wards would be exposed from high to the very very high risk of clean water supply. These results signify the tangible need of adaptation actions, to prevent the worsening impacts of climate on clean water supply.

Explaining the low risk of preterm birth among arab americans in the United States: an analysis of 617451 births.

PubMed

El-Sayed, Abdulrahman M; Galea, Sandro

2009-03-01

Arab Americans have a lower risk for preterm birth than white Americans. We assessed factors that may contribute to the association between ethnicity and preterm birth risk in Michigan, the state with the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States. Factors assessed as potential contributors to the ethnicity/preterm birth risk association were maternal age, parity, education, marital status, tobacco use, and maternal birthplace. Data were collected about all births in Michigan between 2000 and 2005. Stratified analyses, trivariate analyses, and manual stepwise logistic regression model building were used to assess potential contributors to the ethnicity/preterm birth risk association. Arab ethnicity was associated with lower preterm birth risk compared with non-Arab white subjects in the unadjusted model. Maternal birthplace inside or outside the United States explained 0.17 of the difference in preterm birth risk between Arab ethnicity and non-Arab white mothers; ethnic differences in marital status and tobacco use explained less of the observed ethnic difference in preterm birth risk. In the final model adjusted for all explanatory variables, Arab ethnicity was no longer associated with preterm birth risk. Maternal birthplace, marital status, and tobacco use may contribute to the preterm birth risk difference between Arab ethnicity and non-Arab white mothers. Additional work is needed to consider the mechanisms relating factors such as maternal birthplace and marital status to ethnic differences in preterm birth risk.

Heavy-metal pollution and potential ecological risk assessment of sediments from Baihua Lake, Guizhou, P.R. China.

PubMed

Huang, Xianfei; Hu, Jiwei; Li, Cunxiong; Deng, Jiajun; Long, Jian; Qin, Fanxin

2009-12-01

Baihua Lake, a man-made reservoir, is one of the five drinking water sources for Guiyang City in China's southwestern province of Guizhou. In the present research, the distribution and accumulation characteristics of heavy metals (Pb, Cd, As, Cu and Zn) for the sediment of this lake were analyzed by examination of 10 recently collected samples. A method based on toxic-response factor was applied to assess the potential ecological risk of these heavy metals to the water body. For comparison, the two sets of reference data representing the pre-industrial and the local baseline pollution levels were employed to derive the accumulating coefficients for the heavy metals under study. The calculated potential ecological risk indices show that the lake was polluted by heavy metals and both cadmium and arsenic loadings were critical factors responsible for the ecological hazards posed to Baihua Lake by the five elements.

Assessment of risk due to the use of carbon fiber composites in commercial and general aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiksel, J.; Rosenfield, D.; Kalelkar, A.

1980-01-01

The development of a national risk profile for the total annual aircraft losses due to carbon fiber composite (CFC) usage through 1993 is discussed. The profile was developed using separate simulation methods for commercial and general aviation aircraft. A Monte Carlo method which was used to assess the risk in commercial aircraft is described. The method projects the potential usage of CFC through 1993, investigates the incidence of commercial aircraft fires, models the potential release and dispersion of carbon fibers from a fire, and estimates potential economic losses due to CFC damaging electronic equipment. The simulation model for the general aviation aircraft is described. The model emphasizes variations in facility locations and release conditions, estimates distribution of CFC released in general aviation aircraft accidents, and tabulates the failure probabilities and aggregate economic losses in the accidents.

Human health risk assessment case study: an abandoned metal smelter site in Poland.

PubMed

Wcisło, Eleonora; Ioven, Dawn; Kucharski, Rafal; Szdzuj, Jerzy

2002-05-01

United States Environmental Protection Agency methodologies for human health risk assessment (HRA) were applied in a Brownfields Demonstration Project on the Warynski smelter site (WSS), an abandoned industrial site at Piekary Slaskie town, Upper Silesia, Poland. The HRA included the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and the development of risk-based preliminary remedial goals (RBPRGs). The HRA focused on surface area covered with waste materials, which were evaluated with regard to the potential risks they may pose to humans. Cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc were proposed as the contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) at WSS based on archive data on chemical composition of waste located on WSS. For the defined future land use patterns, the industrial (I) and recreational (II) exposure scenarios were assumed and evaluated. The combined hazard index for all COPCs was 3.1E+00 for Scenario I and 3.2E+00 for Scenario II. Regarding potential carcinogenic risks associated with the inhalation route, only cadmium was a contributor, with risks of 1.6E-06 and 2.6E-07 for Scenario I and Scenario II, respectively. The results of the BRA indicated that the potential health risks at WSS were mainly associated with waste material exposure to cadmium (industrial and recreational scenarios) and lead (industrial scenario). RBPRGs calculated under the industrial scenario were 1.17E+03 and 1.62E+03 mg/kg for cadmium and lead, respectively. The RBPRG for cadmium was 1.18E+03 mg/kg under the recreational scenario. The BRA results, as well as RBCs, are comparable for both scenarios, so it is impossible to prioritize land use patterns for WSS based on these results. For choosing a future land use pattern or an appropriate redevelopment option, different factors would be decisive in the decision-making process, e.g., social, market needs, technical feasibility and costs of redevelopment actions or acceptance of local community.

Biomarkers of susceptibility: State of the art and implications for occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iavicoli, Ivo, E-mail: ivo.iavicoli@unina.it

Rapid advances and applications in nanotechnology are expected to result in increasing occupational exposure to nano-sized materials whose health impacts are still not completely understood. Scientific efforts are required to identify hazards from nanomaterials and define risks and precautionary management strategies for exposed workers. In this scenario, the definition of susceptible populations, which may be at increased risk of adverse effects may be important for risk assessment and management. The aim of this review is to critically examine available literature to provide a comprehensive overview on susceptibility aspects potentially affecting heterogeneous responses to nanomaterials workplace exposure. Genetic, genotoxic and epigeneticmore » alterations induced by nanomaterials in experimental studies were assessed with respect to their possible function as determinants of susceptibility. Additionally, the role of host factors, i.e. age, gender, and pathological conditions, potentially affecting nanomaterial toxicokinetic and health impacts, were also analysed. Overall, this review provides useful information to obtain insights into the nanomaterial mode of action in order to identify potentially sensitive, specific susceptibility biomarkers to be validated in occupational settings and addressed in risk assessment processes. The findings of this review are also important to guide future research into a deeper characterization of nanomaterial susceptibility in order to define adequate risk communication strategies. Ultimately, identification and use of susceptibility factors in workplace settings has both scientific and ethical issues that need addressing. - Highlights: • To define susceptible populations is important for risk assessment and management; • Genetic susceptibility may influence the individual response to nanomaterial exposure; • Susceptibility factors in workplace settings have both scientific and ethical issues.« less

Risk assessment for safety laboratories in Politeknik Negeri Medan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viyata Sundawa, Bakti; Hutajulu, Elferida; Sirait, Regina; Banurea, Waldemar; Indrayadi; Mulyadi, Sangap

2017-09-01

International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated 2.34 million people die each year because accidents and diseases in workplace. It also impact to economic losses in some countries. It need to do safety and healthy in working environment especially in laboratory. Identification of potential hazards and risks must be done in Telecommunication Laboratory Politeknik Negeri Medan. Therefore, this study was assessed 5 of potential hazards and risks in our laboratory by Likert Scale. This object was divided into 2 assessment namely likelihood of hazards and severity of consequences. Collecting data is taken from questionnaire who involved 100 students at random academic level. The result showed The highest score is chemical hazards 73.2% in likelihood of hazards and electrical hazards 85% in severity of consequences. This condition is classified as “high” state. Big attention must be given to “high” state because it can help us to determine mitigate action.

Biomarkers of susceptibility: State of the art and implications for occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Iavicoli, Ivo; Leso, Veruscka; Schulte, Paul A.

2016-01-01

Rapid advances and applications in nanotechnology are expected to result in increasing occupational exposure to nano-sized materials whose health impacts are still not completely understood. Scientific efforts are required to identify hazards from nanomaterials and define risks and precautionary management strategies for exposed workers. In this scenario, the definition of susceptible populations, which may be at increased risk of adverse effects may be important for risk assessment and management. The aim of this review is to critically examine available literature to provide a comprehensive overview on susceptibility aspects potentially affecting heterogeneous responses to nanomaterials workplace exposure. Genetic, genotoxic and epigenetic alterations induced by nanomaterials in experimental studies were assessed with respect to their possible function as determinants of susceptibility. Additionally, the role of host factors, i.e. age, gender, and pathological conditions, potentially affecting nanomaterial toxicokinetic and health impacts, were also analysed. Overall, this review provides useful information to obtain insights into the nanomaterial mode of action in order to identify potentially sensitive, specific susceptibility biomarkers to be validated in occupational settings and addressed in risk assessment processes. The findings of this review are also important to guide future research into a deeper characterization of nanomaterial susceptibility in order to define adequate risk communication strategies. Ultimately, identification and use of susceptibility factors in workplace settings has both scientific and ethical issues that need addressing. PMID:26724381

Evaluation of triclosan in Minnesota lakes and rivers: Part II - human health risk assessment.

PubMed

Yost, Lisa J; Barber, Timothy R; Gentry, P Robinan; Bock, Michael J; Lyndall, Jennifer L; Capdevielle, Marie C; Slezak, Brian P

2017-08-01

Triclosan, an antimicrobial compound found in consumer products, has been detected in low concentrations in Minnesota municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. This assessment evaluates potential health risks for exposure of adults and children to triclosan in Minnesota surface water, sediments, and fish. Potential exposures via fish consumption are considered for recreational or subsistence-level consumers. This assessment uses two chronic oral toxicity benchmarks, which bracket other available toxicity values. The first benchmark is a lower bound on a benchmark dose associated with a 10% risk (BMDL 10 ) of 47mg per kilogram per day (mg/kg-day) for kidney effects in hamsters. This value was identified as the most sensitive endpoint and species in a review by Rodricks et al. (2010) and is used herein to derive an estimated reference dose (RfD (Rodricks) ) of 0.47mg/kg-day. The second benchmark is a reference dose (RfD) of 0.047mg/kg-day derived from a no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) of 10mg/kg-day for hepatic and hematopoietic effects in mice (Minnesota Department of Health [MDH] 2014). Based on conservative assumptions regarding human exposures to triclosan, calculated risk estimates are far below levels of concern. These estimates are likely to overestimate risks for potential receptors, particularly because sample locations were generally biased towards known discharges (i.e., WWTP effluent). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ASSESSING ASTHMATIC CHILDREN'S EXPOSURES TO TOXIC AIR POLLUTANTS AND THE POTENTIAL INHALED DOSES USING TIME ACTIVITY INFORMATION AND ENERGY EXPENDITURE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Accurately quantifying human exposures and the potential doses of various populations to environmental pollutants is critical for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to assess and manage human health risks. The Tampa Asthmatic Children's Study (TACS) was a pilot research stu...

Conservative Exposure Predictions for Rapid Risk Assessment of Phase-Separated Additives in Medical Device Polymers.

PubMed

Chandrasekar, Vaishnavi; Janes, Dustin W; Saylor, David M; Hood, Alan; Bajaj, Akhil; Duncan, Timothy V; Zheng, Jiwen; Isayeva, Irada S; Forrey, Christopher; Casey, Brendan J

2018-01-01

A novel approach for rapid risk assessment of targeted leachables in medical device polymers is proposed and validated. Risk evaluation involves understanding the potential of these additives to migrate out of the polymer, and comparing their exposure to a toxicological threshold value. In this study, we propose that a simple diffusive transport model can be used to provide conservative exposure estimates for phase separated color additives in device polymers. This model has been illustrated using a representative phthalocyanine color additive (manganese phthalocyanine, MnPC) and polymer (PEBAX 2533) system. Sorption experiments of MnPC into PEBAX were conducted in order to experimentally determine the diffusion coefficient, D = (1.6 ± 0.5) × 10 -11  cm 2 /s, and matrix solubility limit, C s  = 0.089 wt.%, and model predicted exposure values were validated by extraction experiments. Exposure values for the color additive were compared to a toxicological threshold for a sample risk assessment. Results from this study indicate that a diffusion model-based approach to predict exposure has considerable potential for use as a rapid, screening-level tool to assess the risk of color additives and other small molecule additives in medical device polymers.

[Pollution Evaluation and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals from Atmospheric Deposition in the Parks of Nanjing].

PubMed

Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua

2016-05-15

Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴).

Review of current methods for characterizing virulence and pathogenicity potential of industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains towards humans.

PubMed

Anoop, Valar; Rotaru, Sever; Shwed, Philip S; Tayabali, Azam F; Arvanitakis, George

2015-09-01

Most industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains used in food or biotechnology processes are benign. However, reports of S. cerevisiae infections have emerged and novel strains continue to be developed. In order to develop recommendations for the human health risk assessment of S. cerevisiae strains, we conducted a literature review of current methods used to characterize their pathogenic potential and evaluated their relevance towards risk assessment. These studies revealed that expression of virulence traits in S. cerevisiae is complex and depends on many factors. Given the opportunistic nature of this organism, an approach using multiple lines of evidence is likely necessary for the reasonable prediction of the pathogenic potential of a particular strain. Risk assessment of S. cerevisiae strains would benefit from more research towards the comparison of virulent and non-virulent strains in order to better understand those genotypic and phenotypic traits most likely to be associated with pathogenicity. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Health.

New EU legislation for risk assessment of GM food: no scientific justification for mandatory animal feeding trials.

PubMed

Kuiper, Harry A; Kok, Esther J; Davies, Howard V

2013-09-01

This commentary focuses on the potential added value of and need for (sub)-chronic testing of whole genetically modified (GM) foods in rodents to assess their safety. Such routine testing should not be required since, due to apparent weaknesses in the approach, it does not add to current risk assessment of GM foods. Moreover, the demand for routine testing using animals is in conflict with the European Union (EU) Commission's efforts to reduce animal experimentation. Regulating agencies in the EU are invited to respect the sound scientific principles applied to the risk assessment of foods derived from GM plants and not to interfere in the risk assessment by introducing extra requirements based on pseudo-scientific or political considerations. © 2013 Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

PubMed

Brown, Iain

2018-06-13

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Iain

2018-06-01

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

PubMed Central

Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

2013-01-01

Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

TYPES OF INTEGRATION IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, AND WHY THEY ARE NEEDED

EPA Science Inventory

Risk-based decision making requires that the decision makers and stakeholders are informed of all risks that are potentially significant and relevant to the decision. The International Programme on Chemical Safety of the World Health Organization has developed a framework for int...

Health Risk-Based Assessment and Management of Heavy Metals-Contaminated Soil Sites in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lai, Hung-Yu; Hseu, Zeng-Yei; Chen, Ting-Chien; Chen, Bo-Ching; Guo, Horng-Yuh; Chen, Zueng-Sang

2010-01-01

Risk-based assessment is a way to evaluate the potential hazards of contaminated sites and is based on considering linkages between pollution sources, pathways, and receptors. These linkages can be broken by source reduction, pathway management, and modifying exposure of the receptors. In Taiwan, the Soil and Groundwater Pollution Remediation Act (SGWPR Act) uses one target regulation to evaluate the contamination status of soil and groundwater pollution. More than 600 sites contaminated with heavy metals (HMs) have been remediated and the costs of this process are always high. Besides using soil remediation techniques to remove contaminants from these sites, the selection of possible remediation methods to obtain rapid risk reduction is permissible and of increasing interest. This paper discusses previous soil remediation techniques applied to different sites in Taiwan and also clarified the differences of risk assessment before and after soil remediation obtained by applying different risk assessment models. This paper also includes many case studies on: (1) food safety risk assessment for brown rice growing in a HMs-contaminated site; (2) a tiered approach to health risk assessment for a contaminated site; (3) risk assessment for phytoremediation techniques applied in HMs-contaminated sites; and (4) soil remediation cost analysis for contaminated sites in Taiwan. PMID:21139851

Risk assessment of metals in road-deposited sediment along an urban-rural gradient.

PubMed

Zhao, Hongtao; Li, Xuyong

2013-03-01

We applied the traditional risk assessment methods originally designed for soils and river sediments to evaluation of risk associated with metals in road-deposited sediment (RDS) along an urban-rural gradient that included central urban (UCA), urban village (UVA), central suburban county (CSA), rural town (RTA), and rural village (RVA) areas in the Beijing metropolitan region. A new indicator RI(RDS) was developed which integrated the RDS characteristics of mobility, grain size and amount with the potential ecological risk index. The risk associated with metals in RDS in urban areas was generally higher than that in rural areas based on the assessment using traditional methods, but the risk was higher in urban and rural village areas than the areas with higher administration units based on the indicator RI(RDS). These findings implied that RDS characteristics variation with the urban-rural gradient must be considered in metal risk assessment and RDS washoff pollution control. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rethinking risk assessment for emerging technology first-in-human trials.

PubMed

Genske, Anna; Engel-Glatter, Sabrina

2016-03-01

Recent progress in synthetic biology (SynBio) has enabled the development of novel therapeutic opportunities for the treatment of human disease. In the near future, first-in-human trials (FIH) will be indicated. FIH trials mark a key milestone in the translation of medical SynBio applications into clinical practice. Fostered by uncertainty of possible adverse events for trial participants, a variety of ethical concerns emerge with regards to SynBio FIH trials, including 'risk' minimization. These concerns are associated with any FIH trial, however, due to the novelty of the approach, they become more pronounced for medical applications of emerging technologies (emTech) like SynBio. To minimize potential harm for trial participants, scholars, guidelines, regulations and policy makers alike suggest using 'risk assessment' as evaluation tool for such trials. Conversely, in the context of emTech FIH trials, we believe it to be at least questionable to contextualize uncertainty of potential adverse events as 'risk' and apply traditional risk assessment methods. Hence, this issue needs to be discussed to enable alterations of the evaluation process before the translational phase of SynBio applications begins. In this paper, we will take the opportunity to start the debate and highlight how a misunderstanding of the concept of risk, and the possibilities and limitations of risk assessment, respectively, might impair decision-making by the relevant regulatory authorities and research ethics committees, and discuss possible solutions to tackle the issue.

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

Developing predictive systems models to address complexity and relevance for ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Forbes, Valery E; Calow, Peter

2013-07-01

Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are not used as well as they could be in risk management. Part of the problem is that they often lack ecological relevance; that is, they fail to grasp necessary ecological complexities. Adding realism and complexity can be difficult and costly. We argue that predictive systems models (PSMs) can provide a way of capturing complexity and ecological relevance cost-effectively. However, addressing complexity and ecological relevance is only part of the problem. Ecological risk assessments often fail to meet the needs of risk managers by not providing assessments that relate to protection goals and by expressing risk in ratios that cannot be weighed against the costs of interventions. Once more, PSMs can be designed to provide outputs in terms of value-relevant effects that are modulated against exposure and that can provide a better basis for decision making than arbitrary ratios or threshold values. Recent developments in the modeling and its potential for implementation by risk assessors and risk managers are beginning to demonstrate how PSMs can be practically applied in risk assessment and the advantages that doing so could have. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

A refined ecological risk assessment for California red-legged frog, Delta smelt, and California tiger salamander exposed to malathion.

PubMed

Clemow, Yvonne H; Manning, Gillian E; Breton, Roger L; Winchell, Michael F; Padilla, Lauren; Rodney, Sara I; Hanzas, John P; Estes, Tammara L; Budreski, Katherine; Toth, Brent N; Hill, Katie L; Priest, Colleen D; Teed, R Scott; Knopper, Loren D; Moore, Dwayne Rj; Stone, Christopher T; Whatling, Paul

2018-03-01

The California red-legged frog (CRLF), Delta smelt (DS), and California tiger salamander (CTS) are 3 species listed under the United States Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA), all of which inhabit aquatic ecosystems in California. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has conducted deterministic screening-level risk assessments for these species potentially exposed to malathion, an organophosphorus insecticide and acaricide. Results from our screening-level analyses identified potential risk of direct effects to DS as well as indirect effects to all 3 species via reduction in prey. Accordingly, for those species and scenarios in which risk was identified at the screening level, we conducted a refined probabilistic risk assessment for CRLF, DS, and CTS. The refined ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted using best available data and approaches, as recommended by the 2013 National Research Council (NRC) report "Assessing Risks to Endangered and Threatened Species from Pesticides." Refined aquatic exposure models including the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), the Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System (VFSMOD), the Variable Volume Water Model (VVWM), the Exposure Analysis Modeling System (EXAMS), and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to generate estimated exposure concentrations (EECs) for malathion based on worst-case scenarios in California. Refined effects analyses involved developing concentration-response curves for fish and species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for fish and aquatic invertebrates. Quantitative risk curves, field and mesocosm studies, surface-water monitoring data, and incident reports were considered in a weight-of-evidence approach. Currently, labeled uses of malathion are not expected to result in direct effects to CRLF, DS or CTS, or indirect effects due to effects on fish and invertebrate prey. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:224-239. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

A methodology for post-mainshock probabilistic assessment of building collapse risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luco, N.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Uma, S.R.; Ryu, H.; Liel, A.B.; Raghunandan, M.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for post-earthquake probabilistic risk (of damage) assessment that we propose in order to develop a computational tool for automatic or semi-automatic assessment. The methodology utilizes the same so-called risk integral which can be used for pre-earthquake probabilistic assessment. The risk integral couples (i) ground motion hazard information for the location of a structure of interest with (ii) knowledge of the fragility of the structure with respect to potential ground motion intensities. In the proposed post-mainshock methodology, the ground motion hazard component of the risk integral is adapted to account for aftershocks which are deliberately excluded from typical pre-earthquake hazard assessments and which decrease in frequency with the time elapsed since the mainshock. Correspondingly, the structural fragility component is adapted to account for any damage caused by the mainshock, as well as any uncertainty in the extent of this damage. The result of the adapted risk integral is a fully-probabilistic quantification of post-mainshock seismic risk that can inform emergency response mobilization, inspection prioritization, and re-occupancy decisions.

A risk assessment framework for assessing metallic nanomaterials of environmental concern: aquatic exposure and behavior.

PubMed

O'Brien, Niall Joseph; Cummins, Enda J

2011-05-01

Nanomaterials are finding application in many different environmentally relevant products and processes due to enhanced catalytic, antimicrobial, and oxidative properties of materials at this scale. As the market share of nano-functionalized products increases, so too does the potential for environmental exposure and contamination. This study presents some exposure ranking methods that consider potential metallic nanomaterial surface water exposure and fate, due to nano-functionalized products, through a number of exposure pathways. These methods take into account the limited and disparate data currently available for metallic nanomaterials and apply variability and uncertainty principles, together with qualitative risk assessment principles, to develop a scientific ranking. Three exposure scenarios with three different nanomaterials were considered to demonstrate these assessment methods: photo-catalytic exterior paint (nano-scale TiO₂), antimicrobial food packaging (nano-scale Ag), and particulate-reducing diesel fuel additives (nano-scale CeO₂). Data and hypotheses from literature relating to metallic nanomaterial aquatic behavior (including the behavior of materials that may relate to nanomaterials in aquatic environments, e.g., metals, pesticides, surfactants) were used together with commercial nanomaterial characteristics and Irish natural aquatic environment characteristics to rank the potential concentrations, transport, and persistence behaviors within subjective categories. These methods, and the applied scenarios, reveal where data critical to estimating exposure and risk are lacking. As research into the behavior of metallic nanomaterials in different environments emerges, the influence of material and environmental characteristics on nanomaterial behavior within these exposure- and risk-ranking methods may be redefined on a quantitative basis. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

1991-05-01

Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

A systemic ecological risk assessment based on spatial distribution and source apportionment in the abandoned lead acid battery plant zone, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Chen, Zhuang; Wang, Fei; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-07-15

In China, potential heavy metal hazard around abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALBP) area has been a great concern but without detailed report. The distribution and sources of heavy metals in soils and so by risk assessment associated with ALBP are conducted in this contribution, based on geographies and statistics. Pb and Zn are quantitively identified to be still emitted from ALBP soil, and Cd as well As are from agricultural activity. We investigate vertical metal distribution, and fortunately find that metals migrate within limit of 40 cm below topsoil, which is higher than groundwater table. The visualized stable depths are Zn 40 cm, Pb, As 20 cm, and Cd 40 cm. The mapped pollution load index (PLI) suggests a high pollution level exists in ALBP soil. The estimation of potential ecological risk index (PERI) indicates a light ecological risk in studied area, while As and Cd mainly from agricultural activity possess 54% of total E ri . Health risk index (THI) is 0.178 for children, indicating non-cancer risks may be ignored in observed area. Though calculated risk is temporarily affordable, soil remediation and reduction of agricultural chemical reagents are recommended for preventing potential cumulative risk from further bioconcentration of heavy metals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive risk assessment method of catastrophic accident based on complex network properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Zhen; Pang, Jun; Shen, Xiaohong

2017-09-01

On the macro level, the structural properties of the network and the electrical characteristics of the micro components determine the risk of cascading failures. And the cascading failures, as a process with dynamic development, not only the direct risk but also potential risk should be considered. In this paper, comprehensively considered the direct risk and potential risk of failures based on uncertain risk analysis theory and connection number theory, quantified uncertain correlation by the node degree and node clustering coefficient, then established a comprehensive risk indicator of failure. The proposed method has been proved by simulation on the actual power grid. Modeling a network according to the actual power grid, and verified the rationality of the proposed method.

Multi-Target Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Elements in Farmland Soil Based on the Environment-Ecological-Health Effect.

PubMed

Wang, Zhongyang; Meng, Bo; Zhang, Wei; Bai, Jinheng; Ma, Yingxin; Liu, Mingda

2018-05-28

There are potential impacts of Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) (e.g., Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu, As, Zn, Hg, and Pb) in soil from the perspective of the ecological environment and human health, and assessing the pollution and risk level of soil will play an important role in formulating policies for soil pollution control. Lingyuan, in the west of Liaoning Province, China, is a typical low-relief terrain of a hilly area. The object of study in this research is the topsoil of farmland in this area, of which 71 soil samples are collected. In this study, research methods, such as the Nemerow Index, Potential Ecological Hazard Index, Ecological Risk Quotient, Environmental Exposure Hazard Analysis, Positive Matrix Factorization Model, and Land Statistical Analysis, are used for systematical assessment of the pollution scale, pollution level, and source of PTEs, as well as the ecological environmental risks and health risks in the study area. The main conclusions are: The average contents of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Zn, Ni, and Pb of the soil are 5.32 mg/kg, 0.31 mg/kg, 50.44 mg/kg, 47.05 mg/kg, 0.03 mg/kg, 79.36 mg/kg, 26.01 mg/kg, and 35.65 mg/kg, respectively. The contents of Cd, Cu, Zn, and Pb exceed the background value of local soil; Cd content of some study plots exceeds the National Soil Environmental Quality Standard Value (0.6 mg/kg), and the exceeding standard rate of study plots is 5.63%; the comprehensive potential ecological hazard assessment in the study area indicates that the PTEs are at a slight ecological risk; probabilistic hazard quotient assessment indicates that the influence of PTEs on species caused by Cu is at a slight level ( p = 10.93%), and Zn, Pb, and Cd are at an acceptable level. For the ecological process, Zn is at a medium level ( p = 25.78%), Cu is at a slight level (19.77%), and the influence of Cd and Pb are acceptable; human health hazard assessment states that the Non-carcinogenic comprehensive health hazard index HI = 0.16 < 1, indicating that PTEs in soil have no significant effect on people's health through exposure; the PMF model (Positive Matrix Factorization) shows that the contribution rates of agricultural source, industrial source, atmospheric dust source, and natural source are 13.15%, 25.33%, 18.47%, and 43.05%, respectively.

Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

BIOTECHNOLOGY/ECORISK

EPA Science Inventory

This research effort is designed to provide the risk assessment community with modern genetic tools for evaluating long-term risks of genetically modified (GM) crops. Molecular population genetic data can potentially reveal information about long-term trends in both pest populat...

An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

PubMed

Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

2015-04-01

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Contour plot assessment of existing meta-analyses confirms robust association of statin use and acute kidney injury risk.

PubMed

Chevance, Aurélie; Schuster, Tibor; Steele, Russell; Ternès, Nils; Platt, Robert W

2015-10-01

Robustness of an existing meta-analysis can justify decisions on whether to conduct an additional study addressing the same research question. We illustrate the graphical assessment of the potential impact of an additional study on an existing meta-analysis using published data on statin use and the risk of acute kidney injury. A previously proposed graphical augmentation approach is used to assess the sensitivity of the current test and heterogeneity statistics extracted from existing meta-analysis data. In addition, we extended the graphical augmentation approach to assess potential changes in the pooled effect estimate after updating a current meta-analysis and applied the three graphical contour definitions to data from meta-analyses on statin use and acute kidney injury risk. In the considered example data, the pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity indices demonstrated to be considerably robust to the addition of a future study. Supportingly, for some previously inconclusive meta-analyses, a study update might yield statistically significant kidney injury risk increase associated with higher statin exposure. The illustrated contour approach should become a standard tool for the assessment of the robustness of meta-analyses. It can guide decisions on whether to conduct additional studies addressing a relevant research question. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. September 2009

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

regional informative workshops on potential applications and risks associated with nanotechnologies and nanomaterials, as well as capacity assessment...quantity and quality, assessment of risks, and addressing vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the UNECE region and beyond. The draft Guidance...Department of Water Resources and the University of Idaho, offers specific measurements of the water consumed across a region . Using surface

A fatal case of Lassa fever in London, January 2009.

PubMed

Kitching, A; Addiman, S; Cathcart, S; Bischop, L; Krahé, D; Nicholas, M; Coakley, J; Lloyd, G; Brooks, T; Morgan, D; Turbitt, D

2009-02-12

In January 2009, the eleventh [corrected] case of Lassa fever imported to the United Kingdom was diagnosed in London. Risk assessment of 328 healthcare contacts with potential direct exposure to Lassa virus - through contact with the case or exposure to bodily fluids - was undertaken. No contacts were assessed to be at high risk of infection and no secondary clinical cases identified.

Who Assesses the Risks in School Science Lessons?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bunyan, Phil

2010-01-01

Although the law requires the employer to assess the risks, the person who knows the circumstances of the lesson well enough to do this is the science teacher. Only the teacher knows what s/he plans to do and can make a judgement about her/his own skills and the experiences, skills and potential behaviour of the classes taught. Although the…

ArcFuels: an ArcMap toolbar for fuel treatment planning and wildfire risk assessment

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; Alan A. Ager

2014-01-01

Fire behavior modeling and geospatial analysis can provide tremendous insight to land managers in defining both the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments in the context of land management goals and public expectations. ArcFuels is a streamlined fuel management planning and wildfire risk assessment system that creates a trans-scale (stand to large landscape...

Assessing the risk of ships striking large whales in marine spatial planning.

PubMed

Redfern, J V; McKenna, M F; Moore, T J; Calambokidis, J; Deangelis, M L; Becker, E A; Barlow, J; Forney, K A; Fiedler, P C; Chivers, S J

2013-04-01

Marine spatial planning provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment and has the potential to minimize environmental impacts and reduce conflicts among users. Spatially explicit assessments of the risks to key marine species from human activities are a requirement of marine spatial planning. We assessed the risk of ships striking humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), blue (Balaenoptera musculus), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales in alternative shipping routes derived from patterns of shipping traffic off Southern California (U.S.A.). Specifically, we developed whale-habitat models and assumed ship-strike risk for the alternative shipping routes was proportional to the number of whales predicted by the models to occur within each route. This definition of risk assumes all ships travel within a single route. We also calculated risk assuming ships travel via multiple routes. We estimated the potential for conflict between shipping and other uses (military training and fishing) due to overlap with the routes. We also estimated the overlap between shipping routes and protected areas. The route with the lowest risk for humpback whales had the highest risk for fin whales and vice versa. Risk to both species may be ameliorated by creating a new route south of the northern Channel Islands and spreading traffic between this new route and the existing route in the Santa Barbara Channel. Creating a longer route may reduce the overlap between shipping and other uses by concentrating shipping traffic. Blue whales are distributed more evenly across our study area than humpback and fin whales; thus, risk could not be ameliorated by concentrating shipping traffic in any of the routes we considered. Reducing ship-strike risk for blue whales may be necessary because our estimate of the potential number of strikes suggests that they are likely to exceed allowable levels of anthropogenic impacts established under U.S. laws. Conservation Biology © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Genetic and Environmental Pathways in Type 1 Diabetes Complications

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

active duty members of the military, their families and retired military personnel will potentially allow focused preventative treatment of at- risk...association and assess potential heterogeneity of association signals, such as by ancestry. Query eQTL databases for relevant associations. Goals: 1a1...1, so that at most an average of 7 SNPs remain as potential risk SNPs at each of the 30 loci. In Stage 2 we will genotype another 2000 cases and

Contamination potential of nitrogen compounds in the heterogeneous aquifers of the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2005-10-01

This study aimed to analyze the contamination potential associated with the reactive transport of nitrate-N and ammonium-N in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan and to evaluate a risk region in developing a groundwater protection policy in 2021. In this area, an aquifer redox sequence provided a good understanding of the spatial distributions of nitrate-N and ammonium-N and of aerobic and anaerobic environments. Equiprobable hydraulic conductivity ( K) fields reproduced by geostatistical methods characterized the spatial uncertainty of contaminant transport in the heterogeneous aquifer. Nitrogen contamination potential fronts for high and low threshold concentrations based on a 95% risk probability were used to assess different levels of risk. The simulated result reveals that the spatial uncertainty of highly heterogeneous K fields governs the contamination potential assessment of the nitrogen compounds along the regional flow directions. The contamination potential of nitrate-N is more uncertain than that for ammonium-N. The high nitrate-N concentrations (≧ 3 mg/L) are prevalent in the aerobic environment. The low concentration nitrate-N plumes (0.5-3 mg/L) gradually migrate to the mid-fan area and to a maximum distance of 15 km from the aerobic region. The nitrate-N plumes pose a potential human health risk in the aerobic and anaerobic environments. The ammonium-N plumes remain stably confined to the distal-fan and partial mid-fan areas.

Venous thromboembolism prophylaxis risk assessment in a general surgery cohort: a closed-loop audit.

PubMed

McGoldrick, D M; Redmond, H P

2017-08-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a potential source of morbidity and mortality in surgical in-patients. A number of guidelines exist that advise on prophylactic measures. We aimed to assess VTE prophylaxis prescribing practices and compliance with a kardex-based risk assessment tool in a general surgery population. Data on general surgery in-patients were collected on two separate wards on two separate days. Drug kardexes were assessed for VTE prophylaxis measures and use of the risk assessment tool. NICE and SIGN guidelines were adopted as a gold standard. The audit results and information on the risk assessment tool were presented as an educational intervention at two separate departmental teaching sessions. A re-audit was completed after 3 months. In Audit A, 74 patients were assessed. 70% were emergency admissions. The risk assessment tool was completed in 2.7%. 75 and 97% of patients were correctly prescribed anti-embolic stockings (AES) and low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH), respectively. 30 patients were included in Audit B, 56% of whom were emergency admissions. 66% had a risk assessment performed, a statistically significant improvement (p < 0.0001). Rates of LMWH prescribing were similar (96%), but AES prescribing was lower (36%). Rates of LMWH prescribing are high in this general surgical population, although AES prescribing rates vary. Use of the VTE risk assessment tool increased following the initial audit and intervention.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Biphenyl (Interagency Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On September 30, 2011, the draft Toxicological Review of Biphenyl and the charge to external peer reviewers were released for external peer review and public comment. The Toxicological Review and charge were reviewed internally by EPA and by other federal agencies and White House Offices before public release. In the new IRIS process (May 2009), introduced by the EPA Administrator, all written comments on IRIS assessments submitted by other federal agencies and White House Offices will be made publicly available. Accordingly, interagency comments and the interagency science consultation draft of the IRIS Toxicological Review of Biphenyl and the charge to external peer reviewers are posted on this site. EPA is undertaking a new health assessment for biphenyl for the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS). The outcome of this project will be a Toxicological Review and IRIS and IRIS Summary of biohenyl that will be entered on the IRIS database. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information to evaluate potential public health risks associated with exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risks associated with environmental contaminants. The IRIS database is relied on for the development of risk ass

Assessing risk of baleen whale hearing loss from seismic surveys: The effect of uncertainty and individual variation.

PubMed

Gedamke, Jason; Gales, Nick; Frydman, Sascha

2011-01-01

The potential for seismic airgun "shots" to cause acoustic trauma in marine mammals is poorly understood. There are just two empirical measurements of temporary threshold shift (TTS) onset levels from airgun-like sounds in odontocetes. Considering these limited data, a model was developed examining the impact of individual variability and uncertainty on risk assessment of baleen whale TTS from seismic surveys. In each of 100 simulations: 10000 "whales" are assigned TTS onset levels accounting for: inter-individual variation; uncertainty over the population's mean; and uncertainty over weighting of odontocete data to obtain baleen whale onset levels. Randomly distributed whales are exposed to one seismic survey passage with cumulative exposure level calculated. In the base scenario, 29% of whales (5th/95th percentiles of 10%/62%) approached to 1-1.2 km range were exposed to levels sufficient for TTS onset. By comparison, no whales are at risk outside 0.6 km when uncertainty and variability are not considered. Potentially "exposure altering" parameters (movement, avoidance, surfacing, and effective quiet) were also simulated. Until more research refines model inputs, the results suggest a reasonable likelihood that whales at a kilometer or more from seismic surveys could potentially be susceptible to TTS and demonstrate that the large impact uncertainty and variability can have on risk assessment.

Human health risk assessment of nitrosamines and nitramines for potential application in CO2 capture.

PubMed

Ravnum, S; Rundén-Pran, E; Fjellsbø, L M; Dusinska, M

2014-07-01

Emission and accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere exert an environmental and climate change challenge. An attempt to deal with this challenge is made at Mongstad by application of amines for CO2 capture and storage (CO2 capture Mongstad (CCM) project). As part of the CO2 capture process, nitrosamines and nitramines may be emitted. Toxicological testing of nitrosamines and nitramines indicate a genotoxic potential of these substances. Here we present a risk characterization and assessment for five nitrosamines (N-Nitrosodi-methylamine (NDMA) N-Nitrosodi-ethylamine (NDEA), N-Nitroso-morpholine (NNM), N-Nitroso-piperidine (NPIP), and Dinitroso-piperazine (DNP)) and two nitramines (N-Methyl-nitramine (NTMA), Dimethyl-nitramine (NDTMA)), which are potentially emitted from the CO2 capture plant (CCP). Human health risk assessment of genotoxic non-threshold substances is a heavily debated topic, and no consensus methodology exists internationally. Extrapolation modeling from high-dose animal exposures to low-dose human exposures can be crucial for the final risk calculation. In the work presented here, different extrapolation models are discussed, and suggestions on applications are given. Then, preferred methods for calculating derived minimal effect level (DMEL) are presented with the selected nitrosamines and nitramines. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Risk Management Model for Source Water Protection Areas

PubMed Central

Chiueh, Pei-Te; Shang, Wei-Ting; Lo, Shang-Lien

2012-01-01

Watersheds are recognized as the most effective management unit for the protection of water resources. For surface water supplies that use water from upstream watersheds, evaluating threats to water quality and implementing a watershed management plan are crucial for the maintenance of drinking water safe for humans. The aim of this article is to establish a risk assessment model that provides basic information for identifying critical pollutants and areas at high risk for degraded water quality. In this study, a quantitative risk model that uses hazard quotients for each water quality parameter was combined with a qualitative risk model that uses the relative risk level of potential pollution events in order to characterize the current condition and potential risk of watersheds providing drinking water. In a case study of Taipei Source Water Area in northern Taiwan, total coliforms and total phosphorus were the top two pollutants of concern. Intensive tea-growing and recreational activities around the riparian zone may contribute the greatest pollution to the watershed. Our risk assessment tool may be enhanced by developing, recording, and updating information on pollution sources in the water supply watersheds. Moreover, management authorities could use the resultant information to create watershed risk management plans. PMID:23202770

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia (Interagency Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On June 1, 2012, the draft Toxicological Review of Ammonia and the draft charge to external peer reviewers were released for external peer review and public comment. The Toxicological Review and charge were reviewed internally by EPA and by other federal agencies and White House Offices before public release. Consistent with the May 2009 IRIS assessment development process, all written comments on IRIS assessments submitted by other federal agencies and White House Offices are made publicly available. Accordingly, interagency comments and the interagency science consultation materials provided to other agencies, including interagency review drafts of the IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia and the charge to external peer reviewers, are posted on this site. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-01-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-04-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

A Climate Change Risk and Resilience Assessment Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Myers, Lisa

This presentation summarizes a site-specific climate resilience planning process applied at two different U.S. Department of Energy sites, in Colorado and along the Gulf Coast that federal site managers can use to identify and analyze potential climate-related risks and explore resilience options to minimize those risks.

Using FEMA FIS, HAZUS and WMOST to Evaluate Effectiveness of GI in Moderating Flood-Related Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The ability to accurately assess flood-related risks and costs as well as the effectiveness of green infrastructure on moderating those risks is critical for both emergency management and long-term planning. Potential flooding depths, land use and building conditions are needed ...

Effective Management Techniques in Tertiary Administration: A Risk Management Framework.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamara, R. P.; Booth, P.

1984-01-01

A management strategy that is potentially more fruitful for the nonprofit sector than traditional management toward a primary objective is a risk management approach to organizational effectiveness. The organization's effectiveness, its survival, can be analyzed by categorizing the risks facing it and assessing its performance in managing these…

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement in patients with severe aortic stenosis who are at high risk for surgical complications: summary assessment of the California Technology Assessment Forum.

PubMed

Tice, Jeffrey A; Sellke, Frank W; Schaff, Hartzell V

2014-08-01

The California Technology Assessment Forum is dedicated to assessment and public reporting of syntheses of available data on medical technologies. In this assessment, transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) was evaluated for patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) who are at high risk for complications. In this assessment, 5 criteria were used: Regulatory approval, sufficient scientific evidence to allow conclusions on effectiveness, evidence that the technology improves net health outcomes, evidence that the technology is as beneficial as established methods, and availability of the technology outside investigational settings. In this assessment, all 5 criteria were judged to have been met. The primary benefit of TAVR is the ability to treat AS in patients who would otherwise be ineligible for surgical aortic valve replacement. It may also be useful for patients at high surgical risk by potentially reducing periprocedural complications and avoiding the morbidity and recovery from undergoing heart surgery. Potential harms include the need for conversion to an open procedure, perioperative death, myocardial infarction, stroke, bleeding, valve embolization, aortic regurgitation, heart block that requires a permanent pacemaker, renal failure, pulmonary failure, and major vascular complications such as cardiac perforation or arterial dissection. Potential long-term harms include death, stroke, valve failure or clotting, and endocarditis. As highlighted at the February 2012 California Technology Assessment Forum meeting, the dispersion of this technology to new centers across the United States must proceed with careful thought given to training and proctoring multidisciplinary teams to become new centers of excellence. TAVR is a potentially lifesaving procedure that may improve quality of life for patients at high risk for surgical AVR. However, attention needs to be paid to appropriate patient selection, their preoperative evaluation, surgical techniques, and postoperative care to preserve and improve on the results attained in the Placement of Aortic Transcatheter Valve trial. Specialty societies are collaborating to ensure that this happens in a rational and comprehensive manner. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks.

PubMed

Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Dahllöf, I

2014-11-15

Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Establishing a system with Drosophila melanogaster (Diptera: Drosophilidae) to assess the non-target effects of gut-active insecticidal compounds.

PubMed

Haller, Simone; Meissle, Michael; Romeis, Jörg

2016-12-01

Potentially adverse effects on ecosystem functioning by the planting of insect-resistant, genetically engineered plants or by the direct application of insecticidal compounds are carefully evaluated in pre-market risk assessments. To date, few studies have assessed the potential risks of genetically engineered crops or insecticidal compounds on the survival and fitness of dipteran species, despite their important contribution to ecosystem services such as decomposition in agricultural systems. Therefore, we propose that Drosophila melanogaster Meigen (Drosophilidae) be used as a surrogate species for the order Diptera and for the functional guild of soil arthropod decomposers in pre-market risk assessments. We developed two assays to assess the toxicity of gut-active insecticidal compounds to D. melanogaster. One assay uses groups of fly larvae, and the other uses individuals. Cryolite, a mineral pesticide, proved to be an adequate positive control. The effects of cryolite on D. melanogaster larvae were comparable between the two assays. Statistical power analyses were used to define the number of replications required to identify different effect sizes between control and treatment groups. Finally, avidin, E-64, GNA, and SBTI were used as test compounds to validate the individual-based assay; only avidin adversely affected D. melanogaster. These results indicate that both D. melanogaster assays will be useful for early tier risk assessment concerning the effects of orally active compounds on non-target dipterans.

Cardiovascular issues in boxing and contact sports.

PubMed

Siegel, Stephen A

2009-10-01

Despite the inherent risks associated with exercise in general and boxing in particular, the sport has had a limited number of catastrophic cardiovascular events. Screening should be based on risks involved and become more extensive with the advancement of the athlete. Anatomic and electrophysiologic risks need to be assessed and may preclude participation with resultant life style and economic complications. There should be adequate preparation for the rare potential cardiovascular complication at all events, with the ability to rapidly assess and treat arrhythmias.

Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification.

PubMed

Goldschmidt, H; Gorson, R O; Lassen, M

1983-05-01

Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life.

A Comparison of Microplastic Ecological Risk in Sediments of Shanghai and Hong Kong Based on the Ecological Risk Index and Plastic Hazard Classes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, P.; Li, D.

2017-12-01

Microplastic which refers to the plastic fragments and particles with diameters less than 5 mm has potential threatening impacts on various ambient medium. The shortage of knowledge of ecological risks from microplastics inhibits the scientific research process. Based on the research of the literature widely, this paper analyzed potential ecological risk of microplastic in sediment of Shanghai and Hong Kong by means of ecological risk index and hazard classes developed by UN Globally Harmonized System. Combining of the two assessment method, results showed that the order of microplastic pollution extents in sediments was Changjiang Estuary

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia Noncancer Inhalation (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has finalized the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment of Ammonia (Noncancer Inhalation). This assessment addresses the potential noncancer human health effects from long-term inhalation exposure to ammonia. Now final, this assessment will update the ...

Failure mode and effects analysis drastically reduced potential risks in clinical trial conduct.

PubMed

Lee, Howard; Lee, Heechan; Baik, Jungmi; Kim, Hyunjung; Kim, Rachel

2017-01-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a risk management tool to proactively identify and assess the causes and effects of potential failures in a system, thereby preventing them from happening. The objective of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of FMEA applied to an academic clinical trial center in a tertiary care setting. A multidisciplinary FMEA focus group at the Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center selected 6 core clinical trial processes, for which potential failure modes were identified and their risk priority number (RPN) was assessed. Remedial action plans for high-risk failure modes (RPN >160) were devised and a follow-up RPN scoring was conducted a year later. A total of 114 failure modes were identified with an RPN score ranging 3-378, which was mainly driven by the severity score. Fourteen failure modes were of high risk, 11 of which were addressed by remedial actions. Rescoring showed a dramatic improvement attributed to reduction in the occurrence and detection scores by >3 and >2 points, respectively. FMEA is a powerful tool to improve quality in clinical trials. The Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center is expanding its FMEA capability to other core clinical trial processes.

Unconventional oil and gas development and risk of childhood leukemia: Assessing the evidence.

PubMed

Elliott, Elise G; Trinh, Pauline; Ma, Xiaomei; Leaderer, Brian P; Ward, Mary H; Deziel, Nicole C

2017-01-15

The widespread distribution of unconventional oil and gas (UO&G) wells and other facilities in the United States potentially exposes millions of people to air and water pollutants, including known or suspected carcinogens. Childhood leukemia is a particular concern because of the disease severity, vulnerable population, and short disease latency. A comprehensive review of carcinogens and leukemogens associated with UO&G development is not available and could inform future exposure monitoring studies and human health assessments. The objective of this analysis was to assess the evidence of carcinogenicity of water contaminants and air pollutants related to UO&G development. We obtained a list of 1177 chemicals in hydraulic fracturing fluids and wastewater from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and constructed a list of 143 UO&G-related air pollutants through a review of scientific papers published through 2015 using PubMed and ProQuest databases. We assessed carcinogenicity and evidence of increased risk for leukemia/lymphoma of these chemicals using International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) monographs. The majority of compounds (>80%) were not evaluated by IARC and therefore could not be reviewed. Of the 111 potential water contaminants and 29 potential air pollutants evaluated by IARC (119 unique compounds), 49 water and 20 air pollutants were known, probable, or possible human carcinogens (55 unique compounds). A total of 17 water and 11 air pollutants (20 unique compounds) had evidence of increased risk for leukemia/lymphoma, including benzene, 1,3-butadiene, cadmium, diesel exhaust, and several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Though information on the carcinogenicity of compounds associated with UO&G development was limited, our assessment identified 20 known or suspected carcinogens that could be measured in future studies to advance exposure and risk assessments of cancer-causing agents. Our findings support the need for investigation into the relationship between UO&G development and risk of cancer in general and childhood leukemia in particular. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hazard Characterization of Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara Vector: What Are the Knowledge Gaps?

PubMed Central

Okeke, Malachy I.; Okoli, Arinze S.; Offor, Collins; Oludotun, Taiwo G.; Tryland, Morten; Bøhn, Thomas; Moens, Ugo

2017-01-01

Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) is the vector of choice for human and veterinary applications due to its strong safety profile and immunogenicity in vivo. The use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines against human and animal diseases must comply with regulatory requirements as they pertain to environmental risk assessment, particularly the characterization of potential adverse effects to humans, animals and the environment. MVA and recombinant MVA are widely believed to pose low or negligible risk to ecosystem health. However, key aspects of MVA biology require further research in order to provide data needed to evaluate the potential risks that may occur due to the use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines. The purpose of this paper is to identify knowledge gaps in the biology of MVA and recombinant MVA that are of relevance to its hazard characterization and discuss ongoing and future experiments aimed at providing data necessary to fill in the knowledge gaps. In addition, we presented arguments for the inclusion of uncertainty analysis and experimental investigation of verifiable worst-case scenarios in the environmental risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA. These will contribute to improved risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA vaccines. PMID:29109380

RADIATION DOSE AND RISK TO RECREATIONAL FISHERMEN FROM INGESTION OF FISH CAUGHT NEAR EIGHT OIL PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MEINHOLD,A.F.; HOLTZMAN,S.

1998-06-01

Offshore production of oil and gas is accompanied by a saline wastewater, called produced water. Produced water discharges to the Gulf of Mexico often contain elevated concentrations of radionuclides that occur naturally in the geologic reservoir along with the oil and gas. These radionuclides may accumulate in organisms that live near offshore oil and gas structures. Because recreational fishing in the Gulf of Mexico is concentrated near oil and gas platforms, there is the potential for increased risks to recreational fishermen from the ingestion of radionuclides in fish caught near produced water discharges. This analysis investigated the potential risk tomore » recreational fishermen from radium and lead-210 in offshore produced water discharges to the Gulf of Mexico. The assessment used data collected at eight discharging offshore platforms and two reference locations. These data were collected in a USDOE funded project titled ``Environmental and Economic Assessment of Discharges from Gulf of Mexico Region Oil and Gas Operations'', here called the USDOE Field Study. The risk assessments were done to support risk managers in developing regulations and permits for offshore discharges of produced water.« less

Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic

PubMed Central

Staples, J. Erin; Diallo, Mawlouth; Janusz, Kristen B.; Manengu, Casimir; Lewis, Rosamund F.; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Sall, Amadou A.

2015-01-01

Background Starting in 2008, the Central African Republic (CAR) experienced an unprecedented number of reported yellow fever (YF) cases. A risk assessment of YF virus (YFV) activity was conducted to estimate potential disease risk and vaccine needs. Methods A multistage cluster sampling design was used to sample humans, non-human primates, and mosquitoes in distinct ecologic zones. Humans and non-human primates were tested for YFV-specific antibodies; mosquitoes were tested for YFV RNA. Results Overall, 13.3% (125/938) of humans were found to have naturally-acquired YFV antibodies. Antibody levels were higher in zones in the southern and south central regions of CAR. All sampled non-human primates (n=56) were known YFV reservoirs; one tested positive for YFV antibodies. Several known YF vectors were identified including Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. luteocephalus, and Ae. simpsoni. Several more urban locations were found to have elevated Breateau and Container indices for Ae. aegypti. Conclusions A country-wide assessment of YF risk found YFV to be endemic in CAR. The potential for future YF cases and outbreaks, however, varied by ecologic zone. Improved vaccination coverage through mass campaign and childhood immunization was recommended to mitigate the YF risk. PMID:24947520

Hazard Characterization of Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara Vector: What Are the Knowledge Gaps?

PubMed

Okeke, Malachy I; Okoli, Arinze S; Diaz, Diana; Offor, Collins; Oludotun, Taiwo G; Tryland, Morten; Bøhn, Thomas; Moens, Ugo

2017-10-29

Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) is the vector of choice for human and veterinary applications due to its strong safety profile and immunogenicity in vivo. The use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines against human and animal diseases must comply with regulatory requirements as they pertain to environmental risk assessment, particularly the characterization of potential adverse effects to humans, animals and the environment. MVA and recombinant MVA are widely believed to pose low or negligible risk to ecosystem health. However, key aspects of MVA biology require further research in order to provide data needed to evaluate the potential risks that may occur due to the use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines. The purpose of this paper is to identify knowledge gaps in the biology of MVA and recombinant MVA that are of relevance to its hazard characterization and discuss ongoing and future experiments aimed at providing data necessary to fill in the knowledge gaps. In addition, we presented arguments for the inclusion of uncertainty analysis and experimental investigation of verifiable worst-case scenarios in the environmental risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA. These will contribute to improved risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA vaccines.

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

Occupational safety and health criteria for responsible development of nanotechnology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Murashov, V.; Kuempel, E. D.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Castranova, V.; Hoover, M. D.; Hodson, L.; Martinez, K. F.

2014-01-01

Organizations around the world have called for the responsible development of nanotechnology. The goals of this approach are to emphasize the importance of considering and controlling the potential adverse impacts of nanotechnology in order to develop its capabilities and benefits. A primary area of concern is the potential adverse impact on workers, since they are the first people in society who are exposed to the potential hazards of nanotechnology. Occupational safety and health criteria for defining what constitutes responsible development of nanotechnology are needed. This article presents five criterion actions that should be practiced by decision-makers at the business and societal levels—if nanotechnology is to be developed responsibly. These include (1) anticipate, identify, and track potentially hazardous nanomaterials in the workplace; (2) assess workers' exposures to nanomaterials; (3) assess and communicate hazards and risks to workers; (4) manage occupational safety and health risks; and (5) foster the safe development of nanotechnology and realization of its societal and commercial benefits. All these criteria are necessary for responsible development to occur. Since it is early in the commercialization of nanotechnology, there are still many unknowns and concerns about nanomaterials. Therefore, it is prudent to treat them as potentially hazardous until sufficient toxicology, and exposure data are gathered for nanomaterial-specific hazard and risk assessments. In this emergent period, it is necessary to be clear about the extent of uncertainty and the need for prudent actions.

Dimensions of motor vehicle crash risk

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-05-01

A valid assessment of motor vehicle crash risks and the potential impact of safety interventions requires a precise understanding of the types of vehicles likely to be equipped and otherwise affected, the most relevant referent to the intervention (e...

ASSESSING WATERBORNE RISKS: AN INTRODUCTION

EPA Science Inventory

Information in this article can help readers evaluate the results of epidemiologic studies of

waterborne disease risks. It is important that readers understand the various epidemiologic study

designs, their strengths and limitations, and potential biases. Terminolog...

Risk assessment and rehabilitation potential of a millennium city dumpsite in Sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Ojuri, O O; Ayodele, F O; Oluwatuyi, O E

2018-06-01

Management of the ever-increasing generated solid waste had been a difficulty for state governments in Nigeria. The high costs connected to this waste management which had encumbered the state budget, ignorance or lack of understanding of resourceful waste management and insensitivity to environmental concerns may have led to partial neglect of this sector. This research paper is aimed at evaluating the rehabilitation potential and the risk level of Igbatoro dumpsite, an Ondo state-managed waste dumpsite which predominantly receives the waste of Akure and its environs. In determining rehabilitation/reconstruction potentials and assessing the risk of the dumpsite, an Integrated Risk Based Approach (IRBA) was considered. The Risk Index (RI) was calculated from the addition of the sensitivity index output with the attribute weightage of the twenty-seven (27) parameters studied. A total risk index of 571.58 was obtained for Igbatoro dumpsite indicating moderate hazard evaluation. Questionnaires distributed to dwellers around the dumpsite also showed that 83.6% of those interviewed agreed that the present management of the dumpsite is poor while 81.8% supported rehabilitation of the dumpsite. Hence, reconstruction of the Igbatoro dumpsite to an endurable and controlled landfill is hereby recommended. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current (Food) Allergenic Risk Assessment: Is It Fit for Novel Foods? Status Quo and Identification of Gaps

PubMed Central

Mazzucchelli, Gabriel; Holzhauser, Thomas; Cirkovic Velickovic, Tanja; Diaz‐Perales, Araceli; Molina, Elena; Roncada, Paola; Rodrigues, Pedro; Verhoeckx, Kitty

2017-01-01

Abstract Food allergies are recognized as a global health concern. In order to protect allergic consumers from severe symptoms, allergenic risk assessment for well‐known foods and foods containing genetically modified ingredients is installed. However, population is steadily growing and there is a rising need to provide adequate protein‐based foods, including novel sources, not yet used for human consumption. In this context safety issues such as a potential increased allergenic risk need to be assessed before marketing novel food sources. Therefore, the established allergenic risk assessment for genetically modified organisms needs to be re‐evaluated for its applicability for risk assessment of novel food proteins. Two different scenarios of allergic sensitization have to be assessed. The first scenario is the presence of already known allergenic structures in novel foods. For this, a comparative assessment can be performed and the range of cross‐reactivity can be explored, while in the second scenario allergic reactions are observed toward so far novel allergenic structures and no reference material is available. This review summarizes the current analytical methods for allergenic risk assessment, highlighting the strengths and limitations of each method and discussing the gaps in this assessment that need to be addressed in the near future. PMID:28925060

Potential Risks of Ecological Momentary Assessment Among Persons Who Inject Drugs.

PubMed

Roth, Alexis M; Rossi, John; Goldshear, Jesse L; Truong, Quan; Armenta, Richard F; Lankenau, Stephen E; Garfein, Richard S; Simmons, Janie

2017-06-07

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA)-which often involves brief surveys delivered via mobile technology-has transformed our understanding of the individual and contextual micro-processes associated with legal and illicit drug use. However, little empirical research has focused on participant's perspective on the probability and magnitude of potential risks in EMA studies. To garner participant perspectives on potential risks common to EMA studies of illicit drug use. We interviewed 38 persons who inject drugs living in San Diego (CA) and Philadelphia (PA), United States. They completed simulations of an EMA tool and then underwent a semi-structured interview that systematically explored domains of risk considered within the proposed revisions to the Federal Policy for the Protection of Human Subjects or the "Common Rule." Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded systematically to explore psychological, physical, social, legal, and informational risks from participation. Participants perceived most risks to be minimal. Some indicated that repetitive questioning about mood or drug use could cause psychological (i.e., anxiety) or behavioral risks (i.e., drug use relapse). Ironically, the questions that were viewed as risky were considered motivational to engage in healthy behaviors. The most cited risks were legal and social risks stemming from participant concerns about data collection and security. Improving our understanding of these issues is an essential first step to protect human participants in future EMA research. We provide a brief set of recommendations that can aid in the design and ethics review of the future EMA protocol with substance using populations.

Estimation of effective dose and lifetime attributable risk from multiple head CT scans in ventriculoperitoneal shunted children.

PubMed

Aw-Zoretic, J; Seth, D; Katzman, G; Sammet, S

2014-10-01

The purpose of this review is to determine the averaged effective dose and lifetime attributable risk factor from multiple head computed tomography (CT) dose data on children with ventriculoperitoneal shunts (VPS). A total of 422 paediatric head CT exams were found between October 2008 and January 2011 and retrospectively reviewed. The CT dose data was weighted with the latest IRCP 103 conversion factor to obtain the effective dose per study and the averaged effective dose was calculated. Estimates of the lifetime attributable risk were also calculated from the averaged effective dose using a conversion factor from the latest BEIR VII report. Our study found the highest effective doses in neonates and the lowest effective doses were observed in the 10-18 years age group. We estimated a 0.007% potential increase risk in neonates and 0.001% potential increased risk in teenagers over the base risk. Multiple head CTs in children equates to a slight potential increase risk in lifetime attributable risk over the baseline risk for cancer, slightly higher in neonates relative to teenagers. The potential risks versus clinical benefit must be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2007-08-01

The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

[Distribution and risk assessment of mercury species in soil of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir].

PubMed

Zhang, Cheng; Chen, Hong; Wang, Ding-Yong; Sun, Rong-Guo; Zhang, Jin-Yang

2014-03-01

To investigate pollution level and ecological risk of mercury in soils of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, 192 surface soil samples from 14 counties (districts) in Chongqing were obtained. Concentrations of THg and Hg species, bioavailable Hg were analyzed and discussed. Geoaccumulation index (I(geo)) and Håkanson potential ecological risk index (E(r)) were applied to assess the pollution status and potential ecological risk of THg and Hg species, respectively. The results showed that significant differences in the concentration of THg were found in soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The THg concentration ranged from 22.4 to 393.5 microg x kg(-1), with an average of (84.2 +/- 54.3) microg x kg(-1). 76.6% of the samples' THg content was higher than the soil background value in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. The percentage of five mercury species (water-soluble Hg, HCl-soluble Hg, KOH-soluble Hg, H2O2-soluble Hg, residue Hg) in soils were 4.1%, 15.5%, 18.3%, 10.9%, 51.3%, respectively. The average concentrations of bioavailable mercury varied between 19.7-36.6 microg x kg(-1), and the percentage of bioavailable Hg was 22.1%-51.6% of THg. According to the geoaccumulation index, the soils were lightly polluted by Hg. Håkanson single potential ecological risk index evaluation showed that Hg species had a low potential ecological risk, moreover, soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir were at low ecological risk levels as evaluated by bioavailable Hg. While, the assessment results based on THg of soils was much higher than that based on the Hg species. Two methods of evaluation showed that the I(geo) and E(r) values calculated based on the Hg species better reflected the actual pollution levels of soils and its hazard to aquatic organisms.

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

PubMed

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

A Guide to the Application of Probability Risk Assessment Methodology and Hazard Risk Frequency Criteria as a Hazard Control for the Use of the Mobile Servicing System on the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'silva, Oneil; Kerrison, Roger

2013-09-01

A key feature for the increased utilization of space robotics is to automate Extra-Vehicular manned space activities and thus significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic hazards while simultaneously minimizing the overall costs associated with manned space. The principal scope of the paper is to evaluate the use of industry standard accepted Probability risk/safety assessment (PRA/PSA) methodologies and Hazard Risk frequency Criteria as a hazard control. This paper illustrates the applicability of combining the selected Probability risk assessment methodology and hazard risk frequency criteria, in order to apply the necessary safety controls that allow for the increased use of the Mobile Servicing system (MSS) robotic system on the International Space Station. This document will consider factors such as component failure rate reliability, software reliability, and periods of operation and dormancy, fault tree analyses and their effects on the probability risk assessments. The paper concludes with suggestions for the incorporation of existing industry Risk/Safety plans to create an applicable safety process for future activities/programs

A dynamic process of health risk assessment for business continuity management during the World Exposition Shanghai, China, 2010.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaodong; Keim, Mark; Dong, Chen; Mahany, Mollie; Guo, Xiang

2014-01-01

Reports of health issues related to mass gatherings around the world have indicated a potential for public health and medical emergencies to occur on a scale that could place a significant impact on business continuity for national and international organisations. This paper describes a risk assessment process for business continuity management that was performed as part of the planning efforts related to the World Expo 2010 Shanghai China (Expo), the world's largest mass gathering to date. Altogether, 73 million visitors attended the Expo, generating over US$2bn of revenue. During 2008 to 2010, the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention performed a dynamic series of four disaster risk assessments before and during the Expo. The purpose of this assessment process was to identify, analyse and evaluate risks for public health security during different stages of the Expo. This paper describes an overview of the novel approach for this multiple and dynamic process of assessment of health security risk for ensuring business continuity.

Assessing Protective Factors for Violence Risk in U.K. General Mental Health Services Using the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors.

PubMed

Haines, Alina; Brown, Andrew; Javaid, Syed Fahad; Khan, Fayyaz; Noblett, Steve; Omodunbi, Oladipupo; Sadiq, Khurram; Zaman, Wahid; Whittington, Richard

2017-12-01

Violence risk assessment and management are key tasks in mental health services and should be guided by validated instruments covering both risk and protective factors. This article is part of an international effort to validate the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) for violence. The SAPROF, Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and the Psychopathy Checklist-Screening Version (PCL-SV) were administered in a sample of 261 patients in U.K. forensic, general inpatient, and community mental health settings. There was significant variation between these groups on SAPROF scores with fewer protective factors in the forensic group. The prospective validity of the SAPROF for nonviolence in the general inpatient and community samples was moderate (area under the curve [AUC] = .60). Adoption of the SAPROF or similar instruments as a supplement to risk-focused assessments has the potential to improve awareness of protective factors and enhance therapeutic engagement in a range of mental health services.

Coordinating ecological restoration options analysis and risk assessment to improve environmental outcomes.

PubMed

Kapustka, Lawrence A; Bowers, Keith; Isanhart, John; Martinez-Garza, Cristina; Finger, Susan; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jenny

2016-04-01

Ecological risk assessment as currently practiced has hindered consideration of ecosystem services endpoints and restoration goals in the environmental management process. Practitioners have created barriers between procedures to clean up contaminated areas and efforts to restore ecosystem functions. In this article, we examine linkages between contaminant risk assessment approaches and restoration efforts with the aim of identifying ways to improve environmental outcomes. We advocate that project managers and other stakeholders use an ecological planning framework, with restoration options included upfront in the risk assessment. We also considered the opportunities to incorporate ecosystem services as potential assessment endpoints in the Problem Formulation stages of a risk assessment. Indeed, diverse perspectives of stakeholders are central to understand the relevance of social, cultural, economic, and regional ecology as influences on future use options for the landscape being restored. The measurement endpoints used to characterize the existing ecological conditions for selected ecosystem services can also be used to evaluate restoration success. A regional, landscape, or seascape focus is needed throughout the risk assessment process, so that restoration efforts play a more prominent role in enhancing ecosystem services. In short, we suggest that practitioners begin with the question of "how can the ecological risk assessment inform the decision on how best to restore the ecosystem?" © 2015 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Diethylstilbestrol: Potential health risks for women exposed in utero and their offspring.

PubMed

Conlon, J Leocadia

2017-02-01

Diethylstilbestrol (DES) is a synthetic estrogen given to pregnant women to prevent miscarriages and preterm labor; the drug was used between 1941 and 1971 in the United States and into the 1980s in other countries. DES exposure is associated with significant long-term health effects, including increased risk for breast cancer, cervical and vaginal clear cell adenocarcinoma, reproductive tract abnormalities, infertility, poor pregnancy outcomes, and early menopause. This article reviews the potential health risks associated with DES exposure, how to assess which patients are at risk, and management recommendations for patients exposed to DES.

Derivation and interpretation of hazard quotients to assess ecological risks from the cultivation of insect-resistant transgenic crops.

PubMed

Raybould, Alan; Caron-Lormier, Geoffrey; Bohan, David A

2011-06-08

Cost-effective and rigorous risk assessments for chemicals may be based on hazard quotients (HQs): the ratio of a measure of exposure to a substance and a measure of the effect of that substance. HQs have been used for many years in ecological risk assessments for the use of synthetic pesticides in agriculture, and methods for calculating pesticide HQs have been adapted for use with transgenic crops. This paper describes how laboratory methods for assessing the ecotoxicological effects of synthetic pesticides have been modified for the measurement of effects of insecticidal proteins, and how these effect measures are combined with exposure estimates to derive HQs for assessing the ecological risks from the cultivation of insect-resistant transgenic crops. The potential for ecological modeling to inform the design of laboratory effects tests for insecticidal proteins is also discussed.

Ferrets as Models for Influenza Virus Transmission Studies and Pandemic Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Barclay, Wendy; Barr, Ian; Fouchier, Ron A.M.; Matsuyama, Ryota; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Peiris, Malik; Russell, Charles J.; Subbarao, Kanta; Zhu, Huachen

2018-01-01

The ferret transmission model is extensively used to assess the pandemic potential of emerging influenza viruses, yet experimental conditions and reported results vary among laboratories. Such variation can be a critical consideration when contextualizing results from independent risk-assessment studies of novel and emerging influenza viruses. To streamline interpretation of data generated in different laboratories, we provide a consensus on experimental parameters that define risk-assessment experiments of influenza virus transmissibility, including disclosure of variables known or suspected to contribute to experimental variability in this model, and advocate adoption of more standardized practices. We also discuss current limitations of the ferret transmission model and highlight continued refinements and advances to this model ongoing in laboratories. Understanding, disclosing, and standardizing the critical parameters of ferret transmission studies will improve the comparability and reproducibility of pandemic influenza risk assessment and increase the statistical power and, perhaps, accuracy of this model. PMID:29774862

Community-based risk assessment of water contamination from high-volume horizontal hydraulic fracturing.

PubMed

Penningroth, Stephen M; Yarrow, Matthew M; Figueroa, Abner X; Bowen, Rebecca J; Delgado, Soraya

2013-01-01

The risk of contaminating surface and groundwater as a result of shale gas extraction using high-volume horizontal hydraulic fracturing (fracking) has not been assessed using conventional risk assessment methodologies. Baseline (pre-fracking) data on relevant water quality indicators, needed for meaningful risk assessment, are largely lacking. To fill this gap, the nonprofit Community Science Institute (CSI) partners with community volunteers who perform regular sampling of more than 50 streams in the Marcellus and Utica Shale regions of upstate New York; samples are analyzed for parameters associated with HVHHF. Similar baseline data on regional groundwater comes from CSI's testing of private drinking water wells. Analytic results for groundwater (with permission) and surface water are made publicly available in an interactive, searchable database. Baseline concentrations of potential contaminants from shale gas operations are found to be low, suggesting that early community-based monitoring is an effective foundation for assessing later contamination due to fracking.

Community perceptions of carbon sequestration: insights from California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Ray, Isha

2009-07-01

Over the last decade, many energy experts have supported carbon sequestration as a viable technological response to climate change. Given the potential importance of sequestration in US energy policy, what might explain the views of communities that may be directly impacted by the siting of this technology? To answer this question, we conducted focus groups in two communities who were potentially pilot project sites for California's DOE-funded West Coast Regional Partnership (WESTCARB). We find that communities want a voice in defining the risks to be mitigated as well as the justice of the procedures by which the technology is implemented. We argue that a community's sense of empowerment is key to understanding its range of carbon sequestration opinions, where 'empowerment' includes the ability to mitigate community-defined risks of the technology. This sense of empowerment protects the community against the downside risk of government or corporate neglect, a risk that is rarely identified in risk assessments but that should be factored into assessment and communication strategies.

Levels and ecological risk assessment of metals in soils from a typical e-waste recycling region in southeast China.

PubMed

Zhao, Weituo; Ding, Lei; Gu, Xiaowen; Luo, Jie; Liu, Yunlang; Guo, Li; Shi, Yi; Huang, Ting; Cheng, Shenggao

2015-11-01

Due to the high threat to human health and the ecosystem from metals, the levels and distribution of As, Hg, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Mn, V, Sn, Sb, Li and Be in various layers of soil from an e-waste recycling area in Guiyu, China were investigated. The extent of pollution from the metals in soil was assessed using enrichment factors (EFs) and the Nemerow pollution index (P N ). To determine the metals' integrated potential ecological risks, the potential ecological risk index (RI) was chosen. The concentrations of Hg, Ni, Cu, Cd, Pb, Sn and Sb were mainly enriched in the topsoil. EF values (2-5) of the elements Hg, Co, Ni, Zn, Sn, Li and Be revealed their moderate enrichment status in the topsoil, derived from e-waste recycling activities. P N presented a decreasing trend in different layers in the order topsoil (0-20 cm) > deep soil (100-150 cm) > middle soil (50-100 cm) > shallow soil (20-50 cm). With higher potential ecological risk factor (E(i)), Hg and Cd are the main contributors to the potential ecological risk. With respect to the RI, all the values in soil from the study area exceeded 300, especially for the soil at sites S2, S4, S5, S7 and S8, where RI was greater than 600. Therefore, immediate remediation of the contaminated soil is necessary to prevent the release of metals and potential ecological harm.

Explosion and/or fire risk assessment methodology: a common approach, structured for underground coalmine environments / Metoda szacowania ryzyka wybuchu i pożarów: podejście ogólne, dostosowane do środowiska kopalni podziemnej

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioca, Ionel-Lucian; Moraru, Roland Iosif

2012-10-01

In order to meet statutory requirements concerning the workers health and safety, it is necessary for mine managers within Valea Jiului coal basin in Romania to address the potential for underground fires and explosions and their impact on the workforce and the mine ventilation systems. Highlighting the need for a unified and systematic approach of the specific risks, the authors are developing a general framework for fire/explosion risk assessment in gassy mines, based on the quantification of the likelihood of occurrence and gravity of the consequences of such undesired events and employing Root-Cause analysis method. It is emphasized that even a small fire should be regarded as being a major hazard from the point of view of explosion initiation, should a combustible atmosphere arise. The developed methodology, for the assessment of underground fire and explosion risks, is based on the known underground explosion hazards, fire engineering principles and fire test criteria for potentially combustible materials employed in mines.

Collecting and Analyzing At-Sea and Coastal Avian Data to Assess Potential Effects of Offshore Renewable Energy Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereksta, D. M.

2016-02-01

The prospect of renewable energy development off the coasts of the United States has led to a scramble for data needs on potentially affected resources, particularly those related to avian species. The potential effects from renewable energy development to avian species are complex and varied including collision, displacement, barrier effects, and attraction. As the lead Federal agency for renewable energy development on the Federal outer continental shelf (OCS), the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has initiated, in coordination with other agencies and partners, the collection and synthesizing of existing data, identification of data gaps, development and funding of studies to fill those gaps, and creation of products for assessing risk to birds from structures at sea. Through the Environmental Studies Program, BOEM collects a wide range of environmental information to provide an improved understanding of offshore ecosystems, a baseline for assessing cumulative effects, and the scientific basis for development of regulatory measures to mitigate adverse impacts. With broad-scale assessments of suitable areas for wind, wave, and tidal energy production offshore, the challenge has been to collect and compile information quickly and at as large a scale as possible. Assessing what we know, what we can predict, and how can we assess risk has led BOEM to develop and collaborate on a variety of studies including baseline data assessments, at-sea surveys, predictive modeling of seabird distribution and abundance, vulnerability and risk assessments, and technology testing for efficient ways to inventory birds on the OCS. These are being applied in both the Atlantic and Pacific, including the Main Hawaiian Islands, to provide for assessments of potential effects and data needs early in the planning process at regional and local scales with the goal of designing and implementing projects that will minimize effects to avian species to the greatest extent practicable.

Wildland fire potential: A tool for assessing wildfire risk and fuels management needs

Treesearch

Greg Dillon; James Menakis; Frank Fay

2015-01-01

Federal wildfire managers often want to know, over large landscapes, where wildfires are likely to occur and how intense they may be. To meet this need we developed a map that we call wildland fire potential (WFP) - a raster geospatial product that can help to inform evaluations of wildfire risk or prioritization of fuels management needs across very large spatial...

Preliminary remediation goals for use at the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office. Revision 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-05-01

This technical memorandum presents Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRGs) for use in human health risk assessment efforts under the United States Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office Environmental Restoration (ER) Division. This document provides the ER Division with standardized PRGs which are integral to the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study process. They are used during project scooping (Data Quality Objectives development), in screening level risk assessments to support early action or No Further Investigation decisions, and in the baselines risk assessment where they are employed in the selection of chemicals of potential concern. The primary objective of this document is to standardizemore » these values and eliminate any duplication of effort by providing PRGs to all contractors involved in risk activities. In addition, by managing the assumptions and systems used in PRG derivation, the ER Risk Assessment Program will be able to control the level of quality assurance associated with these risk-based guideline values.« less

IRIS Toxicological Review of Benzo[a]pyrene (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has finalized the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessment of benzo[a]pyrene. This assessment addresses the potential cancer and noncancer human health effects from long-term exposure to benzo[a]pyrene. Now final, this assessment will update the toxicological info...

IRIS Toxicological Review of Trimethylbenzenes (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has finalized the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment of Trimethylbenzenes (TMBs). This assessment addresses the potential non-cancer and cancer human health effects from long-term exposure to TMBs. Now final, this assessment will be the first IRIS a...

Heavy Metal Contamination in Soil and Brown Rice and Human Health Risk Assessment near Three Mining Areas in Central China

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Metal mining and waste discharge lead to regional heavy metal contamination and attract major concern because of the potential risk to local residents. Methods This research was conducted to determine lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), manganese (Mn), and antimony (Sb) concentrations in soil and brown rice samples from three heavy metal mining areas in Hunan Province, central China, and to assess the potential health risks to local inhabitants. Results Local soil contamination was observed, with mean concentrations of Cd, Pb, Sb, and As of 0.472, 193.133, 36.793, and 89.029 mg/kg, respectively. Mean concentrations of Cd, Pb, Sb, Mn, and As in brown rice were 0.103, 0.131, 5.175, 6.007, and 0.524 mg/kg, respectively. Daily intakes of Cd, As, Sb, Pb, and Mn through brown rice consumption were estimated to be 0.011, 0.0002, 0.004, 0.0001, and 0.0003 mg/(kg/day), respectively. The combined hazard index for the five heavy metals was 22.5917, and the total cancer risk was 0.1773. Cd contributed most significantly to cancer risk, accounting for approximately 99.77% of this risk. Conclusions The results show that potential noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks exist for local inhabitants and that regular monitoring of pollution to protect human health is urgently required. PMID:29065598

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Potentially toxic elements in soil of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Tribal areas, Pakistan: evaluation for human and ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Saddique, Umar; Muhammad, Said; Tariq, Mohsin; Zhang, Hua; Arif, Mohammad; Jadoon, Ishtiaq A K; Khattak, Nimat Ullah

2018-03-22

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) contaminations in the soil ecosystem are considered as extremely hazardous due to toxicity, persistence and bioaccumulative nature. Therefore, this study was aimed to summarize the results of published PTEs in soil of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal areas, Pakistan. Results were evaluated for the pollution quantification factors, including contamination factor (CF), pollution load index (PLI), ecological risk index (ERI) and human health risk assessment. The highest CF (797) and PLI (7.35) values were observed for Fe and ERI (857) values for Cd. Soil PTEs concentrations were used to calculate the human exposure for the risk assessment, including chronic or non-carcinogenic risks such as the hazard quotient (HQ) and carcinogenic or cancer risk (CR). The values of HQ were > 1 for the Cd, Co and Cr in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal areas. Tribal areas showed higher values of ERI, HQ, and CR as compared to the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that were attributed to the mining activities, weathering and erosion of mafic and ultramafic bedrocks hosting ophiolites. This study strongly recommends that best control measures need to be taken for soil PTEs with the intent to alleviate any continuing potential threat to the human health, property and environment, which otherwise could enter ecosystem and ultimately the living beings. Further studies are recommended to combat the soil PTEs concentrations and toxicity in the Tribal areas for a best picture of understanding the element effects on human, and environment can be achieved that will lead to a sustainable ecological harmony.

Occurrence and fractionation of Cr along the Loushan River affected by a chromium slag heap in East China.

PubMed

Chen, Youyuan; Dong, Bingbing; Xin, Jia

2017-06-01

This study investigated the chromium (Cr) occurrence and distribution along the Loushan River adjacent to a chromium slag heap. The speciation and chemical fractionation of Cr in different environmental media were determined. The potential ecological risks for the surrounding environment were assessed on the basis of both potential ecological risk index (RI) and risk assessment code (RAC). The results show that the surface soil experienced severe Cr contamination with Cr(T) and Cr(VI) values of 3220 ± 6266 and 64 ± 94 mg/kg, respectively, even though the chromium slag heap had already been removed. The chromium slag enhanced the Cr concentration level in the surface soil, water, and sediment samples more than the background level to different extents, which indicates that Cr released from the chromium slag actually affects the surrounding environment. The spatial distribution variety of Cr implies that their transport might have been affected by soil leaking, atmospheric transport, and fluvial hydraulics. The chemical fractionation results demonstrate that the residual fraction was the dominant form, accounting for 54.6 and 66.1% Cr(T) in surface soil and sediment samples, respectively. The content of bioavailable exchangeable Cr fraction correlated with the organic matter (OM), cation exchange capacity (CEC), and pH value. The ecological risk assessment suggests no considerable ecological risk toward the biota despite a relatively high Cr(T) level. Nevertheless, attention should be paid to the potential long-term risks owing to the slow release of oxidizable and residual fractions.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Current and future needs for developmental toxicity testing.

PubMed

Makris, Susan L; Kim, James H; Ellis, Amy; Faber, Willem; Harrouk, Wafa; Lewis, Joseph M; Paule, Merle G; Seed, Jennifer; Tassinari, Melissa; Tyl, Rochelle

2011-10-01

A review is presented of the use of developmental toxicity testing in the United States and international regulatory assessment of human health risks associated with exposures to pharmaceuticals (human and veterinary), chemicals (agricultural, industrial, and environmental), food additives, cosmetics, and consumer products. Developmental toxicology data are used for prioritization and screening of pharmaceuticals and chemicals, for evaluating and labeling of pharmaceuticals, and for characterizing hazards and risk of exposures to industrial and environmental chemicals. The in vivo study designs utilized in hazard characterization and dose-response assessment for developmental outcomes have not changed substantially over the past 30 years and have served the process well. Now there are opportunities to incorporate new technologies and approaches to testing into the existing assessment paradigm, or to apply innovative approaches to various aspects of risk assessment. Developmental toxicology testing can be enhanced by the refinement or replacement of traditional in vivo protocols, including through the use of in vitro assays, studies conducted in alternative nonmammalian species, the application of new technologies, and the use of in silico models. Potential benefits to the current regulatory process include the ability to screen large numbers of chemicals quickly, with the commitment of fewer resources than traditional toxicology studies, and to refine the risk assessment process through an enhanced understanding of the mechanisms of developmental toxicity and their relevance to potential human risk. As the testing paradigm evolves, the ability to use developmental toxicology data to meet diverse critical regulatory needs must be retained. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy’s Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale frommore » nondiscernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy’s sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy’s sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.« less

Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

PubMed

Horie, Seichi

2010-09-01

Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

Pest risk assessment of the importation into the United States of unprocessed Pinus logs and chips from Australia

Treesearch

John T Kliejunas; Harold H. Burdsall; Gregg A. DeNitto; Andris Eglitis; Dennis A. Haugen; Michael I. Haverty; Jessie A. Micales-Glaeser

2006-01-01

The unmitigated pest risk potential for the importation of unprocessed logs and chips of species of Pinus (Pinus radiata, P. elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii, P. taeda L., and P. caribaea var. hondurensis, principally) from Australia into the United States was assessed by estimating the likelihood and consequences of introduction of representative insects and pathogens...

Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

2011-01-01

Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

Self-Assessed Disability and Self-Rated Health among Rural Villagers in Peru: A Brief Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rohrer, James E.; Merry, Stephen P.; Thacher, Thomas D.; Summers, Matthew R.; Alpern, Jonathan D.; Contino, Robert W.

2010-01-01

Context: Risks for poor self-rated overall health in rural areas of developing nations have not been thoroughly investigated. Purpose: The objective of this study was to assess potential risk factors for poor self-rated health among rural villagers in Peru. Methods: A door-to-door survey of villagers residing in the Pampas Grande region in Peru,…